The World Bank Niger Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (P175857) Project Information Document (PID) Concept Stage | Date Prepared/Updated: 09-Jun-2021 | Report No: PIDC31780 Jun 08, 2021 Page 1 of 10 The World Bank Niger Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (P175857) BASIC INFORMATION A. Basic Project Data OPS TABLE Country Project ID Parent Project ID (if any) Project Name Niger P175857 Niger Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (P175857) Region Estimated Appraisal Date Estimated Board Date Practice Area (Lead) AFRICA WEST Oct 20, 2021 Dec 15, 2021 Urban, Resilience and Land Financing Instrument Borrower(s) Implementing Agency Investment Project Financing Ministry of Planning Prime Minister's office Proposed Development Objective(s) The Project Development Objective is to improve integrated and resilient urban management, and service delivery; and reduce climate risks in selected municipalities in Niger. PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY-NewFin1 Total Project Cost 250.00 Total Financing 250.00 of which IBRD/IDA 250.00 Financing Gap 0.00 DETAILS -NewFinEnh1 World Bank Group Financing International Development Association (IDA) 250.00 IDA Credit 250.00 Environmental and Social Risk Classification Concept Review Decision Jun 08, 2021 Page 2 of 10 The World Bank Niger Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (P175857) Substantial Track II-The review did authorize the preparation to continue B. Introduction and Context Country Context 1. Located in the Sahel, Niger is in many ways defined by its natural environment. With a land area of 1,267,000 km2, Niger is the sixth largest country in Africa and the largest in West Africa. The country is landlocked and the closest port, Cotonou, is over 1,000 km away from the capital Niamey. Niger has 5,700 km of land borders, a high proportion of which run through sparsely inhabited regions that are difficult to govern1. The country has been sharply impacted by the spillover effects of the security crisis in Mali that began in 2012 and has now spread to large parts of Burkina Faso and bordering areas in Niger. In the eastern region bordering Lake Chad and Nigeria, the Boko Haram insurgency that began in Northern Nigeria in 2008 has created a security threat and humanitarian crisis for Niger as well2. In the Diffa region and certain zones in the regions of Tillaberi and Tahoua, a state of emergency has been declared since 2017. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), there were 313,000 internally displaced people and 234,000 refugees in Niger as of May 2021. Niger also participates in several regional institutions, including the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a broader organization that promotes regional peace, stability, and justice. 2. Niger’s population of 24.2 million (in 2020) is unevenly spread throughout the country. Niger’s population and activities are concentrated in the South of the country, away from the Sahara Desert, which is arid and only suitable for nomadic and transhumant livestock, and for irrigated crop production in Oases. Population density in the Southern part of the country, covering 25 percent of the territory and where 96 percent of Nigeriens live, average about 60 inhabitants per km2, twice the average of West Africa (29 inhabitants per km2) 3. A demographic transition—the shift from high to low mortality and fertility levels—has begun through an impressive decline in child mortality. However, fertility remains high at 6.7 children per woman in 20204, leading to an estimated population increase to 31.3 million by 2027 and to 65.6 million by 20505. Persistently high fertility and declining child mortality have resulted in high population growth at 3.65 percent in 20216 and a very young age structure, with 49.7 percent of the population below 15 years of age and a child dependency ratio of 104.1, meaning that there are 1.04 children for each person of working age in 20207. The presence of such a large share of youth has implications at both the household, local and national levels in terms of health, nutrition, food security, human development, demand for jobs, service delivery and economic growth and stability. 3. With a GDP of US$13.3 billion and a per capita GDP of US$549.4 in 20208 (current US$), Niger is among the poorest nations in the world. The vast majority of Niger’s 9 million poor (2019 estimate) live in rural areas where food insecurity is high9. Human development indicators are concomitantly low. Human Development Index value is 0.394 1 Niger SCD, World Bank 2017 2 PRA Eligibility Note, World Bank 2021 3 Niger Urbanization Review 2019 4 Fertility rate, total (births per woman) – Niger, World Bank indicators 5 Population estimates and projections – Niger, World Bank indicators 6 Statistica 2021 7 Age dependency ration – Niger, World Bank indicators 8 Macro Poverty Outlook for Niger, World Bank 2021 9 Niger – Economic and Poverty situation Note in the time of COVID-19, World Bank Spring 2020 Jun 08, 2021 Page 3 of 10 The World Bank Niger Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (P175857) (2019, latest available) positioning Niger at 189 out of 189 countries and territories, with 62.4 years of life expectancy (at birth); 6.5 years of expected schooling years and 2.1 being the mean years of schooling10. 4. Niger is exposed to multiple conflicts and fragility risks, which stem from a combination of structural causes and short-term drivers. The Niger Risk and Resilience Assessment identifies three structural drivers of fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) explain its persistent fragility: (i) climate vulnerability and environmental degradation, (ii) territorial imbalances and uneven share of mining revenues and benefit; and (iii) a growing regional security threats11. Youth exclusion and increasing demographic pressure are transversal FCV drivers. The most immediate vulnerability is related to the growing regional insecurity and violent extremist groups, which threaten the country’s stability and fuel pre- existing intercommunal tensions. Some of these security threats have increased considerably in recent years, resulting in conflict spillovers and terrorist attacks on Niger’s Western border with Mali and its Eastern and Southern border in the Diffa region, and recently in the south-center border with Nigeria in Maradi region. As a result, the local economy in these regions has been severely affected, depriving thousands of livelihood activities and leading to significant humanitarian crises. Authorities often lack the human and financial resources to respond to such challenges because of an already weak public service delivery system throughout the country, and partly because of governance limitations. Sectoral and Institutional Context 5. Niger is currently at an early stage of urbanization, however as in most other African countries, the population living in urban municipalities is growing rapidly. While Niger remains at a relatively low level of urbanization; 16.5 percent of the population lived in urban municipalities in 201912, at current and expected future rates of growth, the total number of people residing in urban municipalities will increase by a factor of 6 from 3.5 million at present to close to 20 million by 2050 - an average of about 500,00013 new urban dwellers per year. Niamey is growing fast, and latest projections estimate that it will double in size by 203014. Other urban municipalities are growing equally fast, if not faster, for e.g. Maradi city had an urban growth rate of 4.3 percent in 201715. Such growth will increase urban municipalities’ demand for public services, housing and other physical infrastructure, and amenities. 6. Based on recent demographic and expected urban population growth, Niger is well positioned to take advantage of the benefits of urbanization or “urban dividend�. However, the urbanization process needs to be well managed to minimize the costs of congestion. Niger’s data indicates that urban municipalities are powerful engines for improving living standards and reducing poverty, as urban municipalities contribute more to the economy, have better living standards, and have lower levels of poverty than rural municipalities. For example, Niamey accounts for 6 percent of the population but contributes to about 25 percent of GDP16. Urban municipalities also provide better levels of access to public services (electricity, water, sanitation). The quality of certain services is also better in urban municipalities, such as health and education17. According to the Niger Employment Assessment18, urban municipalities are usually characterized by a more educated workforce and a larger presence of jobs in the wage-sector, which offer better pays, 10 HDR report 2020: http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/latest-human-development-index-ranking 11 Niger Risk and Resilience Assessment (RRA), World Bank 2016, 2019 12 urban municipalities can be either communes urbaines or Villes and are defined as local government jurisdictions that include a core urban settlement with a population of, respectively, more than 5,000 and more than 100,000) 13 This represents 2 percent of Niger’s total population in 2020 14 Niger Urbanization Review, 2019. World Bank. 15 Maradi Urban Master Plan, 2018, Ministère des Domaines, de l’Urbanisme et du Logement, Niger 16 Niamey City Scan, World Bank 2021 17 A Destiny Shaped by Water A Diagnostic of Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) and Poverty in Niger, World Bank 2019 18 An Assessment of Employment in Niger, World Bank, 2017 Jun 08, 2021 Page 4 of 10 The World Bank Niger Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (P175857) more stability, and additional benefits. Examples from other FCV countries19 suggest that better intra-city connectivity and accessibility through improved motorized transport is essential to create integrated labor markets. Inter-city connectivity is also of major significance for the government of Niger and has proven to be a powerful engine for trade and economic growth20. Poverty is also falling faster in the capital city of Niamey and other urban municipalities. In 2019, about 42 percent of Nigeriens lived below the poverty rate, with a higher proportion of poor in rural than urban municipalities (49 percent et 9 percent of the population respectively)21. However, faster urbanization needs to be well managed, as there is a risk that poverty will simply shift from rural to urban municipalities. 7. Even as favorable conditions exist to take advantage of the urbanization process, if mismanaged, potential benefits may disappear. Widespread fragility; high exposure to natural hazards and costly adverse natural shocks; and a lack of investment in critical urban infrastructure at the local level have undermined the benefits of the urbanization process in Niger. Capital investment in urban municipalities and basic services provision lags behind urban population growth, e.g. more than 70 percent of the urban population live in a house missing at least access to improved water and sanitation, enough living space, durable material for its roof, walls or floor, or does not have secure tenure. While the incidence of poverty remains far lower in urban than in rural areas; the urban poor also face high living costs, as they pay an 11 percent premium on food prices compared to countries at similar income levels22. Without increased public investment in urban infrastructure, urbanization will not generate sufficient economic growth to absorb new urban dwellers without deteriorating urban welfare and urban municipalities may lose the potential agglomeration benefits that the concentration of economic activities has to offer. 8. Niger is highly vulnerable to increasing risk from climate change, such floods, and droughts. The Notre Dame GAIN index23 classifies Niger as the 2nd most vulnerable country in the world, out of 181 ranked countries. Flood hazard is mainly concentrated in the southern part of the country, particularly severe along the border with Nigeria and Chad. Flooding poses a threat mainly in the River Niger basin with about 100,000 people affected by floods every year, on average24. About 40 percent of Niger’s population lives within the Niger River Basin, where the capital city Niamey is located. Tillaberi, Dosso, Niamey, Maradi and Diffa are the most exposed regions. An increase in frequency and severity of extreme rainfall and flooding events has been observed in recent years. Ten major droughts and nine flooding events were recorded over the last 30 years. According to current climate projections the mean and maximum temperature as well as the duration of heat spells may increase, and rain may also increase marginally in the project locations. Mean temperatures in the Sahel are expected to increase between 3-6°C by 2100, with +4°C in Niger, while rainfall patterns are projected to become more irregular, with sudden oscillations between very wet and very dry years. In addition, Increased occurrence of erratic rainfall will increase the hazard of floods.25 Niger’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions26 19 Based on : Republic of Guinea, Urban sector review 2019, World Bank, and Haiti Urbanization review Haitian cities : actions for today with an eye on tomorrow 2017. World Bank 20 Evaluation de la Décentralisation 21 Niger – Economic and Poverty situation Note in the time of COVID-19, World Bank Spring 2020 22 Idem 23 The ND-GAIN Country Index summarizes a country's vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges in combination with its readiness to improve resilience. It is composed of two key dimensions : vulnerability and readiness. Vulnerability is the sensitivity and capacity to adapt to the negative effects of climate change by considering six life-supporting sectors : food, water, health, ecosystem service, human habitat, and infrastructure. Readiness measures a country’s ability to leverage investments and convert them to adaptation actions by considering three components – economic readiness, governance readiness and social readiness. 24 Niger Disaster Risk Profile, World Bank 2019 25 USAID (2017). Climate Change Risk Profile: West Africa Sahel, https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2017%20April_USAID%20ATLAS_Climate%20Change%20Risk%20Profile%20- %20Sahel.pdf 26 In terms of adaptation measures, improvement in water management is one of the priorities of the Niger INDC, with co-benefits being improvement in people’s living conditions and access to potable water. Improvement in local entrepreneurship is also an impor tant co-benefit of Jun 08, 2021 Page 5 of 10 The World Bank Niger Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (P175857) provided to the United Nations therefore estimate the needed funds for climate change adaptation until 2030 at US$1.607 billion.27 9. During the last semester of 2020, Niger experienced severe flooding caused by 150 percent above-average accumulated precipitation, which affected all regions of the country. Starting in July and continuing intermittently through the end of October 2020, the combination of heavy rainfall, environmental degradation of the savannah, and the silting of the Niger River and other waterways, led to significant riverine flooding and, to a lesser extent, localized flash floods, particularly in the southern regions. The capital city Niamey was heavily impacted when the Niger river rose to 7 meters and breached a 6.5-meter dike, flooding neighborhoods along the river. Additional less severe and slower flooding events occurred in December 2020 and January 2021, due to the Niger River flooding phenomenon called “Crue Guinéenne�28, further compounded the effects of the crisis. 10. The 2020 floods had a significant impact on households, agriculture, housing, public infrastructure, and businesses, concentrated in the Southern region. Over 632,000 people have been affected, of which 80 fatalities, according to the Government’s damage and loss assessment. The province of Maradi has been the most severely impacted, with over 173,000 people affected and more than 18,900 homes destroyed or damaged, followed by Niamey with over 72,000 people affected and about 5,000 homes destroyed or damaged, and Agadez with more than 75,000 people affected and about 2,000 homes destroyed or damaged. In total, over 52,000 homes were reported destroyed or severely damaged across the country In Niamey, all the neighborhoods along the Niger River were flooded, and the country’s main public university, the university hospital center, and several neighborhoods on the city’s outskirts were flooded. Relationship to CPF 11. The project’s objectives are fully aligned with the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) with Niger, the Niger Economic and Social Development Plan (PDES), and the 2021 policy declaration of the newly elected government 29. The proposed project is fully aligned with pillar 3 of the 2018-2022 CPF “strengthening governance by promoting important sectoral reforms that improve service delivery, expand economic opportunity, bolster economic growth, and augment the resilience of the population to fragility and climate change�. The project is also aligned with Niger's vision for 2035, as expressed through the Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy (SCDDI), as well as with Niger’s Economic and Social Development Plan 2017 - 2021 (PDES 2017-2021), which intends to “strengthen the resilience of the economic and social development system.� More specifically, the project supports pillar 3 (Accelerating Economic Growth) and pillar 5 (Sustainable Management of the Environment) by supporting urban development through coordinated and sustainable multi-sectoral investments. The proposed project is also in line with the decentralization framework described above. The 2021 policy declaration of the newly elected government identifies the strengthening of urban planning capacities and investment, the improvement of public services, and the strengthening of Disaster Risk Management, and as key priority areas. C. Proposed Development Objective(s) The Project Development Objective is to improve integrated and resilient urban management, and service delivery; and reduce climate risks in selected municipalities in Niger. the adaptation measures proposed in the INDC. 27 Republic of Niger (2015). «Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) » of Niger. 28 Small floods which occurs every year between October and March 29 Déclaration De Politique Générale Du Gouvernement, May 2021 Jun 08, 2021 Page 6 of 10 The World Bank Niger Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (P175857) Key Results (From PCN) PDO outcomes Outcomes indicators Improve service delivery, and resilient People provided with improved urban living conditions (sub-indicator: infrastructure those who are female)—Corporate Results Indicator (CRI) 30 Reduce climate risks Area protected from flooding (sq km) – Corporate Climate Indicator Improve access to jobs Beneficiaries of job-focused interventions (CRI, Number) disaggregated by gender (number) Strengthen urban and resilience Number of urban municipalities with appropriate integrated flood risk management management investment plans that inform the location of public infrastructure and physical development. D. Concept Description Component 1 – Rehabilitation and reconstruction of damaged municipal infrastructure; and investments in resilient infrastructure and services (US$140 million IDA + potential GPRBA grant of US$2-3 million for solid waste management activities) 12. Sub-component 1.1 Resilient Municipal Infrastructure Investments: This sub-component will finance (i) the repair, rehabilitation, upgrading and reconstruction of damaged municipal infrastructure in the most affected regions after the 2020 floods, (ii) climate resilient and energy efficient urban upgrading (i.e. access roads, drainage infrastructure, water supply and sanitation, solid waste management, local markets, public spaces, street lighting and climate resilient social facilities); and (ii) the construction or rehabilitation of the road network within the municipalities and of rural roads connecting intermediate urban municipalities to national road networks, including the rehabilitation of drainage systems that play a critical role in resilience to urban floods. The investments eligible for funding under this sub-component will be prioritized based on (i) the Damage and Loss Assessment and following the Build-Back-Better approach, and (ii) the Communal Development Plans (PDCs), other investment plans available at the municipal level, and projects developed through the Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project (PGRC-DU P145268), in agreement with municipalities. 13. Sub-component 1.2: Institutional strengthening, capacity building and strategic planning for municipalities. This sub-component will support select municipalities in institutionalizing and strengthening urban management skills that are critical for efficient planning, financing, and delivering of resilient infrastructure and basic services. This subcomponent will finance technical assistance, which could include, depending on the needs of the municipalities: (i) municipal management (including investment planning; financial management, procurement, disbursement, monitoring, and evaluation, and integration of resilience in infrastructure design and supervision); (ii) urban planning and operations and maintenance (including and the use of geospatial and digital information for better planning), (iii) accountability (including engagement and feedback mechanisms with citizens)31, and (iv) mobilization of local revenues. 30This is a World Bank Corporate Results Indicator to measure the number of people living in urban municipalities provided with access to improved services, assessed by improvement in access to core municipal services, i.e. SWM, municipal road and stormwater drainage, and rehabilitation of urban space. 31 (i) municipalities’ transparency to share municipal information with host communities, IDPs, refugees; (ii) awareness raising for municipalities and population on the need for accountability e,g, regarding municipal affairs (incl. local revenue mobilization, etc); and (iii) response mechanisms for municipalities to ensure municipalities provide feedback to population on population’s queries, thus strengthening accountability, Jun 08, 2021 Page 7 of 10 The World Bank Niger Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (P175857) 14. Sub-component 1.3 Improved access to economic opportunities: This sub-component will support the involvement of local communities in the development of value chains in Niger’s construction sector, linked to the investments in sub- component 1.1 and 2.2., especially activities involving Labor-intensive work. As professional skills may not always match the local labor market demand, this component will finance (i) trainings to improve labor market inclusion, (ii) apprenticeships to IDPs, and (iii) and Cash-for-Work opportunities for refugees and host communities in the local labor market32. Activities will rely on existing initiatives in Niger to offer a combination of vocational training and job placements in the private sector firms. Component 2 – Improved Flood Risk Management (US$100 million IDA) 15. Sub-component 2.1: Institutional Strengthening for Flood Risk Reduction and Emergency Preparedness: This sub- component would finance (i) the acquisition of input data, such as Digital Elevation Models in appropriate resolution and accuracy, necessary to develop flood risk assessments ; (ii) the development of flood risk assessment for urban areas and connected sub-basins for the benefit of the Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Interior, the Niger Basin Authority, the Ministry of Environment and municipalities, which will spatially inform flood risk reduction investment decisions in critical infrastructure, improve design considerations, and support strategic planning at the basin and city level; (iii) pre-feasibility studies, detailed designs and bidding documents for risk reduction interventions; (iv) integrated flood risk management investment plans for Niamey and select main secondary cities, including adjacent peri-urban municipalities; and (vi) TA for linking the assessments to land use planning and updating of norms and guidelines for flood protection and asset management - including Operation, Maintenance and Surveillance Plans, and strengthening of institutional capacity in the flood management sector at central and local government levels. Institutional and capacity strengthening in emergency preparedness and response will also be provided to ensure the provision of accurate Hydro-met data, timely dissemination of weather information, efficient early warning systems and the development of effective contingency and emergency response plans to complement flood management plans and infrastructure investments at national and municipal levels. This sub-component will ensure synergies with and consolidate results from the PRGC-DU and the Niger Early Warning Services Modernization TA (CREWS TF0A6294). 16. Sub-component 2.2: Rehabilitation and reconstruction of damaged hydraulic infrastructure after the 2020 floods; and flood risk reduction investments in urban municipalities and connected watersheds. The sub-component will finance (i) the rehabilitation and reconstruction of hydraulic infrastructure, based on the Damage and Loss Assessment conducted; and (ii) flood risk reduction infrastructures investments (grey and green) along with non-structural measures to enhance the resilience of major urban municipalities along the Niger river, based on the risk assessments and investment plans developed under sub-component 2.1 and available studies and designs developed by the PGRC-DU. More specifically, this subcomponent will finance: (i) repair of flood-induced damages to the drainage/dike works and additional flood defense and control structures such as dykes, check dams, and drainage structures; (ii) nature-based solutions33 that will enhance natural habitat and increase biodiversity in addition to controlling siltation and runoff; (iii) water harvesting structures such as excavated tanks and small dams constructed for multipurpose use, including irrigation and/or water supply; (iv) restoration and conservation plans in micro-catchments, including strengthening 32 These can include cleaning of drainage networks, collection of waste , small environmental tasks such as tree planting, riverbanks stabilization. 33Nature based solutions for urban flood management encompass natural water retention measures that includes actions to (i) restore landscapes and stabilize slopes to limit erosion (ii) intercept or retain water flow and increase plant transpiration (iii) improve soil infiltration of rain through plantation or increased urban green spaces surfaces (iv) create ponds and wetlands for water retention (v) and restore floodplains. Jun 08, 2021 Page 8 of 10 The World Bank Niger Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (P175857) community management, in hotspots upstream of critical infrastructure; (v) stone barriers and thresholds in “ koris� (sandy intermittent streams); and (vi) rehabilitation and development of pond control structures. 17. Component 3 – Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) (US$0 million IDA). This component will provide immediate response to an eligible crisis or emergency, as needed. This Component will finance the implementation of emergency infrastructure rehabilitation and reconstruction. Resources will be allocated to this component as needed by the project during implementation. A separate Operations Manual for this Component will be prepared by the GoN, and will provide detailed guidelines and instructions on how to trigger the CERC and use funds (including activation criteria, eligible expenditures, and specific implementation arrangements as well as required staffing for the Coordinating Authority). 18. Component 4: Project Management and Monitoring support (US$10 million IDA). This component would finance the costs associated with implementation support, financial management, procurement, environmental and social management, monitoring and evaluation, communication, and knowledge management. Legal Operational Policies Triggered? Projects on International Waterways OP 7.50 No Projects in Disputed Areas OP 7.60 No Summary of Screening of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts . The Project activities are complex and include construction, repair, rehabilitation, and reconstruction of damaged municipal infrastructure in the most affected regions by and after the 2020 floods, urban upgrading (i.e. access roads, water supply and sanitation, solid waste management, local markets, street lighting and resilient social facilities) to improve living conditions and the integration of displaced populations. The Environmental risks are substantial, and the social risks of the project are high. The overall risk of the project is high. Several ESS are relevant under this project and relate to: ESS1, ESS10, ESS2, ESS3, ESS4, ESS5, ESS6 and ESS8. Under these ESS, the PIU will prepare appropriate instruments by appraisal or project effectiveness and ensure smooth implementation of mitigation measures. . CONTACT POINT World Bank Claudia Ruth Soto Orozco Disaster Risk Management Specialist Borrower/Client/Recipient Jun 08, 2021 Page 9 of 10 The World Bank Niger Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (P175857) Ministry of Planning Saadou Bakoye General Secretary bb.saadou@gmail.com Implementing Agencies Prime Minister's office Yabilan Maman Project Coordinator yabilan1958@gmail.com FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: (202) 473-1000 Web: http://www.worldbank.org/projects APPROVAL Task Team Leader(s): Claudia Ruth Soto Orozco Approved By APPROVALTBL Country Director: Joelle Beatrice Dehasse 28-Jun-2021 Jun 08, 2021 Page 10 of 10