'Tnc Iqq' PHASING OUT LEAD FROM GASOLINE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE HEALTH ISSUES, FEASIBILITY, AND POLICIES N,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~U |- ___\ EDITED BY MAGDA LOVE I IMPLEMENTING THE ENVIRONMENTAL ACTION PROGRAMME FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE IMPLENTING THE ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIONPROGRAMME FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE Phasing Out Lead From Gasoline in Central and Eastern Europe Health Issues, Feasibility, and Policies Edited by Madga Lovei The World Bank Washington, D.C. Copyright © 1997 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing June 1997 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this volume do not imply on the part of the World Bank Group any judgment on the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to the Office of the Publisher at the address shown in the copyright notice above. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permission to copy portions for classroom use is granted through the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., Suite 910, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, Massachusetts 01923, U.S.A. ISBN 0-8213-3915-X Magda Lovei is environmental economist in the Technology and Pollution Policy Unit of the World Bank's Environment Department. Cover design by Mitchell & Company Graphic Design. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Phasing out lead from gasoliine in Central and Eastern Europe : health issues, feasibility, and policies / edited by Magda Lovei. p. cm. - (Implementing the environmental action programme for Central and Eastern Europe) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8213-3915-X 1. Lead-Environmental aspects-Europe, Eastern. 2. Lead-Health aspects-Europe, Eastern. 3. Automobiles-Europe, Eastern-Motors -Exhaust gas-Environmental aspects. 4. Automobiles-Europe, Eastern-Motors-Exhaust gas-Health aspects. 5. Lead Environmental aspects-Europe, Central. 6. Lead-Health aspects -Europe, Central. 7. Automobiles-Europe, Central-Motors-Exhaust gas-Environmental aspects. 8. Automobiles-Europe, Central Motors-Exhaust gas-Health aspects. I. Lovei, Magda. II. Series. RA577.L4P48 1997 97-12022 363.1791-dc2l CIP Contents Acknowledgment vii Preface ix Executive Summary xiii Abbreviations xvi Lead Exposure and Health in Central and Eastern Europe 1 Lead and Human Health 1 Main Sources of Lead Exposure in Central and Eastern Europe 2 Impacts of Vehicular Lead Emissions 3 Feasibility and Costs of Phasing Out Lead from Gasoline 7 The Economics of Lead Use 7 Refinery Processes and Types 8 Technical Options for Replacing Lead in Gasoline 9 Car Technology Issues 9 Costs of Phasing Out Lead from Gasoline 11 Refining Sector Context 13 Policies and Implementation 17 Cost Effectiveness 17 Lead Phase-Out Approaches 18 Regulations and Enforcement 19 Incentive Policies 20 Consensus Building Among Affected Stekeholders 24 Public Information and Education 25 .i.i Bibliography 27 Case Studies 31 Contents of Case Studies 33 A. Lead Exposure and Health: Evidence from Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria 35 Magda Lovei and Barry S. Levy Editors B. Complete Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline: Policies and 49 Implementation in the Slovak Republic Anna Violova, Daniel Bratskj, Eva Sovctkovd and Monika Ursfnyovd Annexes 67 Annex A Refining Capacity in Central and Eastern Europe 69 and the Former Soviet Union Annex B Selected Vehicle Emission Requirements 71 Annex C Reference Gasoline Specifications 73 Annex D Recommended Gasoline Use in Selected Car Models 75 Figures 1.1 Blood Lead Levels and the Use of Leaded Gasoline in the U.S., 1976-1980 4 1.2 Lead Concentrations in Gasoline and Ambient Airborne Lead Levels in Turin, Italy, 1974-1992 5 1.3 Share of Leaded Gasoline in Domestic Gasoline Consumption in Selected CEE Countries 6 2.1 The Impact of Lead Addition on Gasoline Octane 8 2.2 Marginal Cost of Octane Increase by Increasing Lead Levels 8 2.3 Distribution of Refining Capacity in the Former Soviet Union 13 2.4 Secondary Processing as the Share of Primary Distillation Capacity in Russia, 14 the U.K., and the U.S. 3.1 Percentage Growth of Number of Cars in Use in Selected European Countries, 1988-1991 20 3.2 Premium Leaded and Unleaded Gasoline Prices and Taxes in Selected 21 European Countries, First Quarter of 1996 3.3 Regular Leaded and Unleaded Gasoline Price Structure in Hungary, Second Quarter of 1996 22 3.4 Premium Unleaded Gasoline Pricesin Selected European Countries, Second Half of 1996 23 A.1 Main Sources of Lead Emissions in Hungary 35 iv A.2 Lead Emission and Ambient Atmospheric Lead Concentrations in Budapest, 1991-94 36 A.3 The Impact of Traffic on the Lead Exposure of Children in Budapest, 1986 37 A.4 Main Sources of Lead Emissions in Poland 40 A.5 Lead Production and Lead Emissions by the Kurdzhali Lead Smelter in Bulgaria, 1990-94 43 A.6 Changes in the Lead Exposure of Children Near the Kurdzhali Lead Smelter, Bulgaria, 45 1991, 1995 B.1 Main Sources of Lead Emissions in the Slovak Republic, 1992 49 B.2 Concentrations of Lead in the Ambient Air Quality of Industrial Cities in Slovakia, 50 1986-1993 B.3 Lead Emissions From Traffic in the Slovak Republic, 1992-95 50 B.4 Lead Content of Gasoline and Ambient Lead Concentrations in Bratislava, 1981-1993 51 B.5 Consumption of Unleaded Gasoline in Slovakia, 1986-1991 53 B.6 Number of Personal Cars in Bratislava, 1985-1994 54 B.7 Gasoline Retail Prices in Slovakia, Third Quarter of 1992-1995 58 B.8 Technological Layout of Motor Gasoline Production at Slovnaft, 1986-1988 60 B.9 Technological Layout of Motor Gasoline Production at Slovnaft, 1989-1991 61 B.10 Technological Layout of Motor Gasoline Production at Slovnaft After 1992 62 B.11 Gasohine Market Structure in Slovakia, 1992-1995 63 B.12 Development of Gasoline Structure in Slovakia, 1992-1995 64 B.13 Reduction of Halogen Emissions in Slovakia, 1992-1994 65 Tables 2.1 Refinery Classification 10 2.2 Refinery Projects Under Preparation in the Former Soviet Union 15 A.1 Vehicular Lead Emissions in Hungary, 1980-1994 35 A.2 Environmental and Biological Measurements of Lead in Hungary, 1985-86 37 A.3 Mean Blood Lead Levels in Budapest, 1986 38 A.4 Blood Lead Levels of Children in Budapest, 1990-93 38 A.5 Blood Lead Levels of Children Outside Budapest, 1990-93 38 A.6 Mean Blood Lead Levels of 0-4 Years Old Hospitalized Children of 04 Years of Age 39 in Hungary, 1994-95 A.7 Ambient Atmospheric Lead Concentrations in the Administrative Districts of Warsaw, 40 1992-93 A.8 Lead in Selected Soil Samples in Poland 41 v A.9 Mean Blood Lead Levels of Children in Silesia, Poland, 1982,1986 41 A.10 Mean Blood Lead Levels of Children in Selected Towns in Silesia, Poland, 1988-90 41 A.11 Mean Blood Lead Levels Among 2675 Children in Chorzow, Upper Silesia, Poland, 1994 42 A.12 Mean Blood Lead Levels in Studied Populations in Silesia, Poland, 1992 42 A.13 Heavy Metal Concentration of the Soil of Kindergartens in Bulgaria 44 A.14 Mean Blood Lead Levels of Children in the Towns of Kurdzhali, Ostrovitsa 44 and Haskovo, Bulgaria, 1995 B.1 Estimates of Lead Absorption From Various Media 51 B.2 Blood Lead Levels in Bratislava's Population, 1986-1990 52 B.3 Vehicle Ownership in Bratislava, 1990-1994 54 B.4 Comparative Vehicle Fleet Characteristics in Slovakia 55 B.5 Prices and Taxes of Leaded Gasoline SPECIAL - 91 in Slovakia, 1990-1992 55 B.6 Prices and Taxes of Leaded Gasoline SUPER - 96 in Slovakia, 1990-1992 55 B.7 Prices and Taxes of Unleaded Gasoline NATURAL - 95 in Slovakia, 1990-1992 56 B.8 Gasoline Taxation in Slovakia, Third Quarter of 1992 - 1995 56 B.9 Wholesale Prices of Gasoline in Slovakia, Third Quarter of 1992 - Second Quarter of 1995 56 B.10 Slovek Emission Standards for Gasoline Vehicles 57 B.11 Composition of Gasoline Supply in Slovakia, 1982-1995 59 B.12 Composition of Gasoline Production Capacity at Slovnaft 60 Boxes 1.1 The Impacts of Reducing Lead Use in Gasoline in Switzerland and Italy 5 2.1 Refining Processes of Gasoline Production 10 2.2 Gasoline Prices and Octane Valuation on European Markets 12 3.1 Setting Gasoline Prices in Bulgaria 24 A.1 The Closing of the Last Major Stationary Lead Emission Source in Budapest 36 A.2 Sociological Issues of Lead Exposures in Hungary 39 A.3 Biological Monitoring of Lead Exposure in Silesia, Poland 42 A.4 The Impact of Traffic on Health in Stara Zagora, Bulgaria 45 B.1 Key Factors of Success in Eliminating Lead from Gasoline in the Slovak Republic 64 vi Acknowledgment This report is part of a larger effort by the Technical Gorynski (National Institute of Hygiene, Warsaw, Department of the Europe and Central Asia, Middle Poland [NIHW]I) with contributions from Bogdan East and Africa Regions (EMTEN) and the Environ- Wojtyniak (NIHW). Financial support for the study ment Department (ENVPE) of the World Bank to was provided by EMTEN and the Government of support the implementation of the Environmental the Netherlands. Action Programme for Central and Eastern Europe, by The study on Complete Phase-Out of Leaded Gaso- identifying cost-effective measures to solve prior- line: Policies and Implementation in the Slovak Republic ity environmental problems. The task manager is was prepared, on request of the World Bank, by Kristalina Georgieva. Anna Violova (Ministry of Environment of the Slo- This report was prepared by Magda Lovei based vak Republic), Daniel Bratsky (Slovnaft Joint Stock on case studies: Company, Slovak Republic), Eva Sovcikova (Insti- The study on Lead Exposure and Health in Central tute for Preventive and Clinical Medicine [IPCM3, and Eastern Europe: Evidencefrom Hungary, Poland and Bratislava, Slovak Republic) and Monika Ursinyovd Bulgaria was prepared by Magda Lovei and Barry (IPCM). It was edited by Magda Lovei. Additional S. Levy (Barry S. Levy Associates, USA) drawing editorial support was provided by Judith Moore. upon technical country studies (this study is also Financial support was provided by the Government available separately as technical background paper). of the Netherlands. The preparation of country studies was coordinated Chapter 2 drew on a technical background pa- by Istvan Ori (Fact Foundation, Hungary). The per (available upon request) onFeasibility and Costs Hungarian country study was directed by Peter of Phasing Out Lead from Gasoline: A Study of the Re- Rudnai (National Institute of Public Health, Hun- fining Sector in Romania, prepared by David gary [NIHH]) with contributions from Andras Bitto Hirschfeld and Jeff Kolb (Abt Associates, Bethesda, (NIHH), Ildiko Farkas (NIHH), Amanda Horvath USA) upon request from the World Bank and the (NIHH), Magdolna Kertesz (NIHH), and Adrienn U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Vamos (Budapest City Public Health Institute). The The editor is especially thankful to Richard Bulgarian country study was directed by Ada Ackermann and Gordon Hughes for guidance and Bainova (National Center of Hygiene, Bulgaria) with comments. The report has also benefited from very contributions from Ivan Petrov (NCH), Vidka helpful technical comments provided by Ralph Nikolova (NCH), Dora Jordanova (Environmental Braccio, Clyde Hertzman, N.C. Krishnamurthy, Management Center, Sofia) and Paunka Bojinova Masami Kojima, Sudipto Sarkar, Cor Van Der ("Pushkarov" National Center of Soil Studies, Sofia). Sterren, and Michael Walsh. The editor also wishes The Polish country study was directed by Pawel to thank Sriyani Cumine for administrative support. vii Preface International Context As a result of increasing awareness of the dangers take a preliminary look at the feasibility and costs of lead to human health and measures to tackle of phasing out lead from gasoline; and (iv) draw urban air pollution, the use of lead additives in lessons from the experience of countries in the region gasoline has been declining rapidly world-wide in phasing out lead from gasoline. While recognizing since the 1970s. The lead content of gasoline has been the importance of dealing with all significant sources reduced, and the use of unleaded gasoline has of lead exposure, the major emphasis of this study rapidly increased. By the end of 1996, several is on lead exposure from the exhaust of vehicles countries, including Argentina, Austria, Bermuda, using leaded gasoline. Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Denmark, El Regional Cooperation in CEE Salvador, Finland, Guatemala, Honduras, Japan, Nicaragua, the Slovak Republic, Sweden, Thailand Many countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the USA, have completely eliminated the use and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) face problems of lead additives in gasoline. and obstacles of lead phase-out which are similar An extensive review (Hertzman, 1995) of across the region, and a strong interest exists in environmental concerns in Central and Eastern learning from each other's experience. A regional Europe came to the conclusion that lead was one of cooperation among countries in CEE, in partnership the most serious and widespread environmental with bilateral and multilateral donor organizations hazards in this region, and one which was relatively could create positive synergies and facilitate the inexpensive to remedy. At theEnvironment Ministers' acceleration of lead phase-out. The cooperation Conference in Lucerne, Switzerland in 1993, 50 would enable CEE countries to (i) carry out joint countries endorsed the Environmental Action activities; (ii) share experiences and information; (iii) Programme for Central and Eastern Europe (World design programs that address the main obstacles of Bank and OECD, 1993) that addressed lead phase-out; and (iv) provide targeted technical environmental priority issues such as the exposure assistance to countries which are less advanced in to lead. the lead phase-out process. Such cooperation started In order to assist the implementation of the during the International Conference on Heavy Metals Environmental Action Programme, the current study and Unleaded Gasoline hosted by the Government of was undertaken as a first step to: (i) determine the the Slovak Republic in September, 1995. Policy major sources and levels of lead exposure in the makers and experts from several CEE and Western region; (ii) examine the progress made in reducing countries and international organizations gathered lead exposure during the last 5-8 years and identify in Banska Bystrica to discuss issues related to the the corresponding human health improvements; (iii) hazards of heavy metals, and measures to be taken ix to phase out leaded gasoline. During the Most of these countries have also created a Environment Ministers' Conference held in October, liberalized market environment in the refining sector 1995 in Sofia, the Government of Bulgaria formally allowing its adjustment to changing regulations and initiated a regional cooperation among CEE demand. The main constraint to the complete phase- countries to support the phase-out of leaded gasoline out of lead in these countries is represented by the within the framework of the Sofia Initiatives designed lack of awareness of consumers and policy makers to address local air quality problems. Recently, the of the feasibility of using unleaded gasoline for the Committee on Environmental Policy of the UN current car fleet. Economic Commission for Europe (UN-ECE) has * Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union started the preparation of a pan-European strategy (FSU). In these countries, political commitment to to phase out leaded gasoline. As a follow-up to the deal with lead phase-out is relatively weak, Sofia Initiatives and the UN-ECE proposal, the overshadowed by serious economic and structural Government of Denmark has initiated the problems in the oil refining sector. Obsolete gasoline establishment of a Task Force on the Phase-Out of Lead specifications allow high concentrations of lead in in Gasoline. The Task Force would facilitate the gasoline, and progress in liberalizing the refining preparation of national lead phase-out plans and sector and the prices of oil products have been concrete political commitments to address this issue sluggish. Besides constraints of old consumer habits before the next Environment Ministers' Conference in and misconceptions, the main constraint of lead 1998 in Aarhus, Denmark. Several bilateral and phase-out in these countries is the lack of policy multilateral organizations, including the World attention to this issue, as well as the slow process of Bank, support the objectives and the work of this refinery sector adjustment. Task Force. A modular structure for the regional cooperation The main objectives of the regional cooperation and assistance program, therefore, should address and partnership program is to develop and arangeofneeds.Suchmodularstructurewouldalso strengthen the commitment of key policy makers to (i) facilitate assistance for a large number of support the removal of lead from gasoline; design countries; (ii) create regional synergies; (iii) achieve and implement supporting policies; and build public economies of scale; and (iv) allow flexibility in donor awareness of the impacts of lead and the proper use participation. Program modules could focus, for of unleaded gasoline. A mechanism is needed to example, on: build a consensus among government agencies, * Carrying out surveys of general public industries and public organizations in each country. awareness of the impacts of lead, consumer habits, Such consensus building may be coordinated by attitudes, price elasticity, and knowledge of the use appointed National Lead Phase-Out Coordinators of different gasoline types in various vehicle models; (NLPCs). NLPCs would also identify areas where * Publication and dissemination of the results the assistance of a regional or bilateral program is and findings of surveys among policy makers across needed. the region; The type of assistance necessary to facilitate lead * Collection, publication and dissemination - phase-out in the region may vary among countries. to policy makers, gasoline distributors and retailers Based on their achievements in lead phase-out, - of information regarding the feasibility of using commitment to pursue such policies, and unleaded gasoline in various vehicle types, capabilities to implement them, CEE countries can especially those most widely used in the region; be placed into two broad groups: * General public education campaigns on the * Central Europe and the Baltics. In order to health impacts of lead in gasoline, and public facilitate their accession to the European Union (EU), awareness programs targeted at gasoline consumers these countries have been harmonizing their based on the results of market survey and car regulations, including those of the lead content in surveys; gasoline, with regulations of the EU. The political * Refinery-specific feasibility studies; commitment to accelerate lead phase-out is high. * Twinning arrangements to provide financial and technical assistance to the NLPCs; and x * Regional workshops and forums for policy Phasing out lead from gasoline typically requires makers and industry representatives on general and capital investments in refineries. In transition technical issues concerning lead phase-out with the economies, these investments can be part of the participation of CEE as well as Western experts ongoing rehabilitation and adjustment of enterprises covering, for example, (i) car technology issues; (ii) in the refining sector. Such investments should be refinery technologies (for example, the use of economically justified and financially profitable, additives); and (iii) policy measures (for example, making them attractive for commercial financing. taxation issues). In countries where financial and capital markets are The Role of the World Bank Group dysfunctional and under-developed, and foreign investors are deterred by high political risks and Considering that the main obstacles of accelerating unclear government policies, the World Bank Group the phase-out of lead from gasoline are policy- can facilitate commercial investments by guarantees, related, the World Bank should focus on assisting equity financing through the International Finance governments in addressing this issue as a priority Corporation (IFC), or co-financing with private and adopting supporting policies. Lead phase-out sources. The use of Bank guarantees, in combination objectives could be discussed and included at with private financing, may be particularly well various levels of Bank assistance such as Country suited to cover risks associated with various Assistance Strategies, National Environmental government policies such as differentiated taxation Action Programmes, Sectoral Adjustment Programs, measures, lead phase-out schedules, gasoline and Transport, Urban, Industrial and Environmental specifications and environmental regulations. Projects. xi Executive Summary Sources and Impacts of Lead Lead is a highly toxic heavy metal. Emerging downtown areas exceeded 20 micrograms per medical evidence shows that lead affects the deciliter in the mid-1980s in Budapest, recent neurological development of young children and measurements of blood lead levels in children rarely causes cardiovascular problems in adults even at exceed 10 micrograms per deciliter. By reducing the low levels of exposure previously believed to be safe. likelihood of neuro-behavioral problems and Vehicle emissions represent a significant source learning disabilities, these measures produced of lead in the environment and human exposure in positive life-long effects on the mental health, socio- Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The contribution economic status, and earning abilities of children. of vehicular exhaust emissions to airborne lead The reduction of lead emissions contributes to a concentrations is estimated at 84 percent in significant decline in the accumulation of lead in Hungary, 61 percent in Bulgaria, and 40 percent in various environmental media, especially soil and Poland. Its role is especially significant in urban dust, reducing long-term exposures through areas. In Budapest, for example, 90 percent of ingestion, which is the main route of exposure in airborne lead originates from traffic. The impacts of children. Additionally, as a recent study in Nizhny vehicular emissions could be clearly detected in the Novgorod, Russian Republic has also pointed out, significant difference in the exposure levels of the elimination of lead from gasoline could avoid children living in downtown areas with heavy traffic hundreds of cases of hypertension and several cases and less congested suburbs in Budapest in the 1980s, of strokes and premature deaths annually due to indicating a potential decrement of 4 IQ points in cardiovascular problems in adults caused by the the more exposed children. inhalation of atmospheric lead, the main source of CEE countries that introduced policies to reduce exposure in adults. lead use in gasoline experienced significant improvements in environmental and human Technical Issues, Feasibility and Costs of Lead exposures to lead. Mean ambient lead Phase-Out concentrations declined from 2.5-5.4 micrograms per cubic meter in the 1980s to around 0.5-0.6 Sincethel92Os,leadadditivesingasolinehavebeen micrograms per cubic meter by 1994 in downtown extensively used world-wide as octane enhancers Budapest. While mean blood lead levels (the best to increase the resistance of gasoline-air mixture in indicator of exposure) of sampled children in the internal combustion engine to early ignition. xiii Additionally, lead also provided lubrication to the reducing refinery margins. The costs of total lead engine valve seats, allowing car manufacturers to phase-out were estimated at around US$ 0.01-0.02 use low-grade soft metals on the engine valves. per liter of gasoline. Another study estimated the Several factors have contributed, however, to a costs of lead phase-out in a hydroskimming refinery significant reduction in the use of lead in gasoline in Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Republic, in the range since the 1970s: (i) catalytic converters introduced of US$ 0.005-0.02 per liter of gasoline (depending in response to growing environmental concern on various technical solutions). However, the study about vehicular emissions of carbon monoxide, also pointed out that the estimated costs assigned hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides required the use to lead phase-out would drop by about 50 percent of unleaded gasoline to protect the converters; (ii) if the refinery made the necessary adjustments in new medical evidence, showing that adverse health its production structure to respond to new market impacts of lead occur even at low levels of exposure conditions. The cost of the successfully implemented affecting both children and adults, resulted in the complete phase-out of leaded gasoline in the Slovak growing awareness of the problem, prompting Republic was also close to these estimates: about US$ measures to reduce the use of lead additives in 0.02 per liter of gasoline, including annualized gasoline; (iii) the availability of technologies in the investment cost. refining and chemical industries allowed refineries Assessing the feasibility and costs of phasing out to introduce substitutes for the octane enhancing and lead from gasoline in CEE cannot be separated from lubricating properties of lead at a relatively modest the restructuring and privatization process of the cost; and (iv) a change in car technology towards refining sector. Several CEE countries, particularly the use of high-grade hardened metal parts the ones that were part of the Former Soviet Union eliminated the need for special lubrication of the (FSU), face serious technical, economic and financial engine valve seats. problems in the refining sector. These problems As a result, the complete removal of lead from include (i) low capacity utilization; (ii) undesirable gasoline became technically feasible and relatively technological and product structure; (iii) poor simple. In most cases, it can be also carried out at quality of products; (iv) obsolete technology; (iv) relatively low cost, making it a cost-effective operational inefficiencies; and (v) limited financial measure to mitigate the public health damage resources. From the point of view of phasing out caused by lead. Based on the experience in other lead, these problems imply that: countries, calculations show that benefits of the * In the short term, low refinery utilization complete removal of lead from gasoline are expected rates, excess conversion capacity; possibilities to to exceed the costs by a large margin in CEE improve process optimization; and low octane countries. These benefits include improved health requirement of the car fleet facilitate the reduction conditions that result in savings in educational and of lead in gasoline; medical costs, reduced mortality, and improved * In the medium term, market forces will productivity resulting in higher lifetime earning. require technical upgrades in viable refineries, also Additional benefits can be expected from reduced improving the capacity of producing unleaded car maintenance costs. gasoline; A modeling study was carried out to assess the * Only those costs should be allocated to lead feasibility and costs of lead phase-out in the phase-out which are additional to the costs of Romanian refinery sector, which still uses high adjustment to market conditions; amounts of lead additives. The study indicated that, * Sectoral restructuring and modernization largely due to excess reforming capacities in offer an opportunity to include lead phase-out Romania's large refineries, lead use could be objectives into the long-term planning process. What significantly reduced relying on existing process needed most is Government commitment setting capacities. Initial reductions of the lead content to lead phase-out schedules and introducing 0.15 g/l, together with improved refinery supporting policies; and optimization measures, could be carried out without xiv * Government policies and requirements lead in gasoline to lower levels, while further steps focusing on the removal of lead are expected to should include a deadline and schedule for the total accelerate the structural adjustment of refineries. elimination of lead. Regulation of the lead content of gasoline may be combined with the revision of Policies and Implementation other gasoline specifications and regulations of vehicular emissions. CEE countries that applied for Although considerable progress has been made in membership in the European Union (EU) have CEE in reducing human exposure to lead, much still started to harmonize their environmental needs to be done. There are indications that even in regulations with those of the EU. The acceleration countries that took measures to reduce the amount of lead phase-out, therefore, would facilitate the of lead in gasoline, improvements have slowed accession process of these countries. In other down or stopped recently. One country, the Slovak countries, regulations of lead should be introduced Republic, phased out leaded gasoline completely by before significant new investments take place in the 1995. Several others, including Bulgaria, the Czech refining sector. Republic, Hungary and Poland, have significantly * Introducing incentive policies to influence reduced the permissible lead content of gasoline (to gasoline demand and the adjustment of gasoline 0.15 g/l), and introduced and promoted the use of supply. Differentiated taxation of leaded and unleaded gasoline during the late 1980s and early unleaded gasoline is one of the most effective 1990s. Elsewhere in the region, for example, in measures to influence gasoline demand. The Romania and many of the former Soviet Republics, ongoing price liberalization and restructuring of the gasoline is still allowed to contain high amounts of tax systems in many CEE countries offer an lead (up to 0.6 g/l in Romania, Russia, Ukraine and opportunity to introduce such taxation. Retail price other Former Soviet Republics), and the market incentives through the tax system can be introduced share of unleaded gasoline remains low (for by various ways. One of the most simple one would example, below 10 percent in Romania). Therefore, be the imposition of an environmental tax on lead it is necessary to accelerate the lead phase-out additives. Prices favoring unleaded gasoline also process in order to prevent further health damages facilitate alternating fueling (buying leaded gasoline as traffic grows rapidly, especially in urban areas. only occasionally, relying on the "lead memory" of This report concludes that a technology-based vehicle engines); and the effective use of catalytic approach that only relies on the use of catalytic control devices to comply with vehicle emission converters to induce lead phase-out is not an requirements. Government policies that allow effective way of dealing with vehicular lead market mechanisms to work can support the exposure problems in CEE, where the car fleet is old adjustment of gasoline supply with consideration and its replacement is slow. Lead phase-out of various options including technological upgrade; objectives, therefore, should be separated from restructuring of refinery operations based on the dealing with other vehicular emission control issues, purchase of high octane gasoline blendstocks and and policies that rely on a combination of incentives additives; and the import of unleaded gasoline. Price and mandatory phase-out may be more appropriate liberalization, corporatization and privatization of choices in the region. The availability of unleaded refineries can improve their incentive structure and gasoline can, however, facilitate the wider facilitate their access to commercial financing to application of catalytic emission control devices that undertake necessary investments. further improve urban air quality by reducing the * Facilitating a broad consensus and multi- emission of various pollutants. sectoral approach. Lead phase-out requires the The report underlines the role of governments cooperation of various government agencies (for in: example, environmental, health, industrial, energy * Setting and enforcing regulations of the lead authorities, trade, fiscal authorities); industrial and content of gasoline. The first step should be reduction business enterprises (for example, oil refineries, of the high maximum permitted concentrations of distributors, retailers, car manufacturers) and public xv organizations (for example, non-government general awareness building programs about the organizations) in the development and danger of lead, information targeted to motorists, implementation of lead reduction policies. retailers and mechanics about recommended fueling * Raising public awareness and providing is needed to clarify misconceptions about the use of targeted education and training. Lead phase-out can unleaded gasoline and the proper adjustment and only be implemented successfully if consumers and maintenance of vehicles using unleaded gasoline. the public understand and support it. Besides xvi Abbreviations BLL Blood Lead Level CDC Centers for Disease Control CEE Central and Eastern Europe CON Control Octane Number CPI Consumer Price Index EAP Environmental Action Programme EHC Environmental Health Criteria EMTC Environmental Management Training Center EU European Union FCC Fluid Catalytic Cracking FSU Former Soviet Union GNP Gross National Product IEA International Energy Agency IFC International Finance Corporation LG Leaded Gasoline MAC Maximum Allowable Concentration MOI Ministry of Industry MON Motor Octane Number MTBE Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether MT Metric Ton NAS National Academy of Sciences NLPC National Lead Phase-Out Coordinator NRC National Research Council OECD Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development PPP Purchasing Power Parity PTEI Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake RON Research Octane Number SK Slovak Krone TEL Tetra-ethyl Lead TML Tetra-methyl Lead VSR Valve Seat Recession ULG Unleaded Gasoline U.S. United States AID Agency for International Development EPA Environmental Protection Agency UN-ECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe WHO World Health Organization xvii Chapter One Lead Exposure and Health in Central and Eastern Europe Lead and Human Health Lead is one of the best understood and most investigations of a relationship between exposure extensively studied environmental toxins. It to lead and health impacts have not been carried adversely affects many organ systems in the body, out in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Less most notably the nervous system, the blood-forming extensive studies, however, have clearly detected a system, the kidneys, the cardiovascular system, and statistical relationship similar to those found in the reproductive system. Of most concern are the Western countries. A study in Poland, for example, adverse effects on the nervous system of young indicated that a 13 point IQ gradient difference children, causing damage with reduced intelligence, existed between children with the highest and hyperactivity and attention deficit, learning lowest BLLs in Katowice, Poland. In Romhany, problems and behavioral abnormalities. Hungary, in children with more than 25pg/dl BLLs, Since lead in children disturbs their coordination, IQ measurements showed a 10 IQ point reduction concentration, reaction time, impulsiveness and compared to those children with less than 10 ,ug/dl behavior, standard questionnaires and observations BLLs (Hertzman, 1995). A study carried out in of psychologists and teachers are capable of Bratislava, Slovak Republic, tested the mental and capturing and quantifying, with IQ gradients, the motor abilities of 395 nine-ten years old children, deviation of performance by children being affected and found that children with higher BLLs tended by lead exposure. Most of these effects can be to have learning and behavioral problems, such as captured and quantified by standardized social intolerance and inability to concentrate, and intelligence test. These standardized tests, for demonstrated lower performance using the Raven example the Raven test, Wechsler Intelligence Scale test. The performance of children with lower (below for Children or the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale, 3.5 1tg/ dl) BLLs was found to be 1.7 IQ points higher are designed to assess the intellectual capability of than those with higher (more than 3.5 jig/ dl) BLLs children with socio-economic and other factors such (Annex B). In some cases, however, the existence as the parents' education, smoking in the family, and of potential confounding factors, and the relatively children's birthweight taken into account. limited samples of data prevented researchers to Statistically significant relationships have been prove the existence of a clear statistical relationship found between the blood lead levels (BLLs) of in CEE. children and their IQ gradients by various studies In recent years, it has been shown that even in Western countries. A review of studies concluded relatively low levels of exposure to lead, such as that a 10 jig/dl increase in BLLs can be associated BLLs below 10 microgram per deciliter (jig/dl) can with a 2.5 gradient decrease in the IQ of children cause serious and persistent damage to the nervous (CDC, 1991). Similar systematic large scale system. Although 10 gg/dl is currently considered I a limit for concern, no threshold has been identified Main Sources of Lead Exposures in Central and under which the adverse effects of lead cannot be Eastern Europe detected (Rosenstock and Cullen, 1994; Rom, 1992; NRC, 1993). The above mentioned health study Lead is a heavy metal that has many uses in carried out in the Slovak Republic confirmed this industrial and consumer products. In most Central finding, demonstrating that unfavorable and Eastern European countries, the main sources neurological impacts could be detected in Slovak of human exposure to lead are (i) the exhaust of children at blood lead levels as low as 3.5 gg/dl, vehicles using leaded gasoline; (ii) industrial below the value (10 pg/dl) previously considered processes that utilize lead or lead compounds, such as threshold. as ferrous and non-ferrous metal smelting and Additionally, prenatal exposure of lead was processing, and battery manufacturing and demonstrated to produce toxic effects on the human dismantling; and (iii) combustion sources, such as fetus, including reduced birthweight and skeletal power plants, incinerators, and household heating. growth, disturbed mental development, Water contamination by pipes that contain lead is spontaneous abortion and premature birth. Studies not known to contribute to significant lead exposure have also pointed out the effects of lead on male in the region. Lead was removed from indoor paint productivity (Silbergeld and Gandley, 1994; WHO, many years ago in most countries in CEE; therefore, 1995). These effects occur already at relatively low lead-containing paint does not appear to be a factor BLLs. in exposures. Several studies (Schwartz, 1988; Pocock et al, The exposure of large populations to lead is 1988; Pirkle et al, 1985) also related elevated BLLs primarily due to airborne lead, and lead in dust and with increased blood pressure, hypertension, and soil in CEE. Children whose developing nervous other cardiovascular problems in adults without a system is especially susceptible to disruptions known threshold of exposure for these effects to caused by lead, are exposed to lead primarily occur. Ostro (1994) has estimated that a IJLg/m3 through ingestion as they put their fingers, increase in airborne ambient lead concentrations contaminated by dirt and soil, into their mouth. The caused about 70 thousand hypertensions in one main source of the exposure of adults is the million males aged 20 and 70 years, 340 non-fatal inhalation of lead particles. A relatively smaller heart attacks and about 350 deaths per one million group of people is exposed to lead in the workplaces, males aged 40-59. and by indirect exposure that occurs when workers It has been pointed out (NRC, 1993; Walsh and bring lead dust home on their clothes, hair and skin. Silbergeld, 1996) that, as a result of the neurological In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the contraction impacts of lead, the exposure to lead in a population of economic activity resulted in "automatic" shifts the distribution of measured intelligence and improvements in environmental quality, reducing blood pressure. The most critical impacts are human exposure to harmful industrial pollution. exerted at the extreme ends of the distribution: lead Recent evidence has also shown that serious exposure results in losses of people with superior pollution control measures were implemented in functions (highest IQ gradients) and increases the many industrial "hot spots" (Hughes, 1995). As a number of those with the poorest functions (children result, industrial lead emissions often continued to close to mental retardation and adults with high decrease despite the recovery of economic activity existing risks of hypertension and strokes). in recent years. The exposure to lead could also have equity Due to falling industrial lead emissions, an implications. Ingested lead may be more effectively immediate decline in human exposures could be absorbed when the stomach is empty, and the diet detected. For example, in the industrial town of lacks essential trace elements, such as iron, zinc and Kurdzhali, Bulgaria, a known "hot spot", mean BLLs calcium (ATECLP and EDF, 1994). Socially deprived of children fell by 31 percent between 1991 and 1995 children are also subject to higher risk of lead as a result of control measures at the lead smelter exposure due to unfavorable living conditions, and (Case Study A). Although comparative tests of the the lack of proper education and prevention intellectual performance of children were not carried measures. out in Bulgaria, we can infer from intemationally 2 established evidence that the approximately US$ 4 A strong relationship could also be demonstrated million investment in pollution control at the lead between traffic and the ambient concentration of smelter in Kurdzhali may have prevented a 1 IQ lead in the atmosphere in CEE. Ambient lead gradient decrease in exposed children, reducing the concentrations in congested downtown areas, for likelihood of the impairment of their cognitive example, were 6-11 times higher than in less development. However, the positive long-term congested suburbs in the 1980s in Budapest. Mean impacts of reduced lead emissions are expected to airborne lead concentrations in inner Budapest, be larger, due to the reduced accumulation of lead where no other significant lead emission source in the ambient environment, especially soil. existed than traffic, actually exceeded those in the Signs of improvements in human exposures industrial town of Katowice, Poland (Hertzman, could also be detected in the industrial region of 1995). Significant reductions in lead concentrations Silesia, Poland. In Chorzow in Upper Silesia, for in suspended dust (31 percent) and airborne lead example, a recent study found mean BLLs between (44 percent) were registered in the downtown area 7.2 and 7.5 pg/dl, indicating a 40 percent decrease of Budapest after traffic was prohibited in the area compared to the results of an earlier, although less in 1989 (Kertesz, 1994). extensive, study in the city (Tables A.10 and A.11). The impacts of traffic were clearly detected in the Cases of lead poisoning due to occupational soil depositions, as well. In Bulgaria, for example, a exposure have also declined. However, lead relatively small difference was observed between concentrations in soil remain high due to the soil samples from a kindergarten in a village close persistent nature of lead in the environment, to a lead smelter, and those taken in a town where contaminating crops and food. Additionally, blood traffic was the only source of lead emissions (Table lead levels in the vicinity of large industrial sources A.13). In Poland, elevated soil levels were found in Silesia are still generally twice as high as in rural along roads and in downtown areas of large cities. areas. In Warsaw, for example, lead concentrations found While industrial lead emission sources were in soil samples from small gardens were 3-7 times increasingly controlled, vehicles became the largest higher than in uncontaminated areas, due to the source of lead exposures in many countries. In the effects of traffic (Table A.8) town of Kurdzhali, Bulgaria, for example, the share There has been clear evidence of the effects of of industry in total lead emissions decreased from traffic on human exposure to lead in CEE. For 90 percent to about 17 percent by 1993, while the example, the percentage of children having BLLs role of traffic now accounts for over 70 percent. above 10 1tg/dl declined from 11.5 percent to 8.2 Vehicular lead emissions were responsible for 84 percent in the Hungarian town of Sopron after traffic percent of all airborne lead emissions in Hungary, was re-directed reducing emissions in the city. In 61 percent in Bulgaria, and 40 percent in Poland in 1985, a study found a significant (17.2 jtg/dl) the early 1990s (Case Study A). Especially difference between the blood lead levels of children significant is the role of traffic in lead exposures in living in congested downtown areas and those living large urban areas. In Budapest, for example, in the suburbs with less traffic in Budapest, vehicular lead emissions account for 90 percent of indicating the impact of traffic-related exposures. airborne lead. This may have caused a more than 4 IQ points difference in the measurable intelligence of the two Impacts of Vehicular Lead Emissions groups of children (assuming similar socio- economic status and other conditions which also About 85 percent of lead emitted by vehicles consists influence IQ measurements). Consequently, of highly toxic inorganic lead, much of which is children living in downtown areas with high traffic easily absorbed into the body due to the small size densities were more likely to experience learning of lead particles. Airborne lead from vehicle exhaust problems, short attention span, hyperactivity, and is also capable of traveling long distances, although other neuro-behavioral problems than those living much lead is deposited on the soil near heavily in less congested suburbs. Higher lead exposures traveled roads, where it can persist for long periods were also likely to affect the prospects of children of time. throughout their lives. 3 Figure 1.1 Blood Lead Levels and the Use of Leaded Gasoline in the U.S., 1976-1980. 0 o58 s \ 0110 100 Lead Use in Gasoline 16 0976 1971 5 90 0' 14 3 70 Blood Lead Levels 12 60 Cd 0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Source: U.S. EPA, 1985. A very close relationship was detected between of leaded gasoline from high levels -often the use of lead in gasoline and the exposure of exceeding 0.7 grams per liter (g/l) until the early people, for example, in the U.S., where the most 1980s - to the current European Union standard extensive studies of this kind were carried out (0.15 g/l) (Figure 1.3). These measures led to during the 1970-80s (Figure 1.1). The growing significant reductions in vehicular lead emissions, recognition of the extreme toxicity of lead even at improvements in ambient air quality, and declining low levels of exposure and the role of traffic in human exposures. elevated exposures of urban populations has For example, lead emissions nearly halved both directed policy makers' attention to measures to in Hungary and Poland in the year when the lead limit the use of lead additives in gasoline world- content of gasoline was reduced to its current level. wide since the 1970-80s. Such measures resulted in Mean ambient atmospheric lead concentrations in large reductions of lead in the ambient environment Budapest declined dramatically, from 2.7pg/m3 in and BLLs (Box 1.1). 1991 to the WHO guide value of 0.5 Vg/m3 in 1994. By the early 1990s, many countries in CEE, Based on relationships established between the including Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and the Czech ambient lead concentrations in the air and blood lead and Slovak Republics, introduced unleaded levels in Hungary, as well as internationally gasoline, and gradually decreased the lead content established relationships between blood lead levels and measurements of intelligence, the reduction of the lead content of gasoline in 1992 may have Nizhny a a population of 1.4 nilon. prevented a 2 point decrease in the IQ of exposed Novgorod has apopulationof1.4million.Averagechildren in Budapest. measured ambient airborne lead concentrations in the city ranged from 0.2 to 1.0 mg/m3 in 1992, wile maximum Statistical evidence concerning the linkage measured concentrations were between 0.7 and 7.7 mg/m3. between the reduced lead emissions and the impacts The mean blood lead level of the population was estimated on human health may not be available in countries at 6 mg/dl (Abt, 1996). in Central and Eastern Europe. World-wide 4 Box 1.1 The Impacts of Reducing Lead Use in Gasoline in Switzerland and Italy Switzerland In Switzerland, the maximum legal lead concentration of gasoline was reduced from 0.4 to 0.15 g/l in 1982. Unleaded gasoline was introduced on the market in 1985, followed by a rapid increase in the market share of unleaded gasoline reaching 65 percent by 1992. Lead emissions from road traffic were reduced by 29 percent in the 1984-88 period, and by 35 percent in the 1988-92 period. A study (Wietlisbach, 1995) was carried out to analyze the trend and determinants of blood lead levels (BLLs) in a Swiss region following the introduction of unleaded gasoline. The study found that, for both sexes, the distribution of BLLs had shifted to lower values. Geometric mean BLLs declined from 5.9 pg/dl in 1984/85 to 4.2 pg/dl in 1988/ 89 and 3.3 gg/dl in 1992/93 in men; and from 4.1 pg/dl to 2.9 ,ug/dl and 2.5 pg/dl, during the same time period in women. Comparable changes in BLLs were observed in all age groups and across socio-economic and dietary categories. Wine drinking, smoking and age were also found to be determining factors on BLLs, however, the study concluded that "the decline of BLLs is likely to be caused predominantly by the reduction of the lead emissions from an important and ubiquitous primary source of contamination such as automotive lead exhaust". Italy The impacts of legislative and enforcement measures undertaken by the Govemment of Italy to reduce the concentrations of lead in gasoline from 0.6 to 0.4 g/l in 1982, from 0.4 to 0.3 g/l in 1988, and from 0.3 to 0.15 in 1992, were analysed by Bono et al. (1995). The study, carried out in Turin, found a progressive decline in the atmospheric lead concentrations from 4.7 pg/m3 in 1974 to 0.53 pg/m3 in 1993 (Figure 1.2). A statistically significant decline was also found in blood lead levels between 1985/86 and 1993/94. In males, mean BLLs decline from 17.7 pg/dl to 6.5 pg/dl; in females from 12.1 pg/ dl to 6.1 gg/dl. Figure 1.2 Lead Concentrations in Gasoline and Ambient Airborne Lead Levels in Turin, Italy,1974-1992 0.6 5 C 05 *' 0.4 3 8 ' 03 ;|0.3 (CD:e 6 l l Nl i 2 Z m CO *n0.2 * CD, 0.1 > 0 0 t Light naphtha - to be used for (i) direct blending to gasoline in small proportions; (ii) direct blending in larger proportions with addition of lead; or (iii) upgrading by isomerization and then blending; and = Heavy naphtha - the primary feed to catalytic reforming, the workhorse of the upgrading process. * Conversion processes convert heavy crude fractions and intermediate refinery streams into lighter streams. Fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) is the most important conversion process. The FCC unit, which converts heavy refinery streams in the residual oil range to a spectrum of lighter, rmore valuable refinery streams, is the heart of a conversion refinery. * Upgrading increases the octane of crude fractions and intermediate refinery streams already in the gasoline boiling range: w Catalytic reforming is the most important and most universal upgrading process. Reforming upgrades heavy naphtha to a prime gasoline blendstock, called reformate. The refinery can vary the octane level of reformate over a wide range (90-102 RON clear) by controlling operating conditions (or operating "severity"). No other refining process allows the refinery comparable control of blendstock octane. The combination of high blendstock octane and operating flexibility usually makes reforming the process of choice for controlling octane level and producing incremental octane-barrels in response to changes in gasoline specifications. However, the reformate has high aromatics and benzene content. The higher the severity is, the higher the aromatics and benzene content becomes. Consequently, reforming may not be the octane source of choice where environmental regulations call for control of the aromatics and benzene content of the gasoline pool. = Isomerization upgrades light naphtha (70-78 RON) to a high quality, moderate octane blendstock (85-90 RON), called isomerate. => Alkylation combines light olefins and iso-butane, all produced mainly by the FCC unit, to form a high- quality, high octane blendstock (92-97 RON), called alkylate. Because it is tied to the FCC process, alkylation can be employed only in conversion refineries and only to the extent that the FCC unit supports it. Because of its composition, alkylate is an exceptionally desirable blendstock for reformnulated gasoline. * Oxygenate production produces oxygenated gasoline blendstocks from FCC by-products, methanol, and ethanol. MTBE (methyl tertiary butyl ether) is the most widely used of the oxygenate blendstocks. It has exceptionally high octane (115 RON) and other desirable blending properties as well. In a refinery, MTBE is produced by anetherification process, which combines purchased methanol and iso-butene produced mainly by the FCC unit. Therefore, refinery- based (or captive) etherification can be employed only in conversion refineries and only to the extent that the FCC unit supports it. However, a number of merchant etherification plants produce MTBE, and a world trade exists in merchant MTBE. Table 2.1 Refinery Classification Skimming Conversion Category Topping Hydro- Catalytic skimming Coking Cracking Deep Conversion Crude Distillation * * * Treating * * * . Blending * * * Upgrading * * . Conversion 0. 0. Oxygenate Production * 10 are available to be blended to unleaded gasoline to would be very low, mainly determined by the costs prevent valve seat recession. Many of these additives of VSR additives and additional transportation costs are sodium based substances which are to access new suppliers if necessary. The cost of commercially available. The Slovak Slovnaft importing unleaded gasoline or gasoline Refinery developed its own lubricating additive that blendstocks or additives should always be assessed helped the transition to a tota1ly unleaded gasoline as an altemative to investment in refinery upgrade. in the Slovak Republic (Case Study B). The costs of lead phase-out at the refinery level Switching from leaded to unleaded gasoline has are determined by the interplay of (i) principles of significant positive impact on engine maintenance. refining techno-economics; and (ii) refinery-specific Lead additives cause various problems with vehicle conditions such as processing capabilities, refinery operation including the build-up of deposits in the configurations, the existence of excess capacity, combusion chamber and on spark plugs. In order crude oil slates and product slates. Due to a large to prevent these problems, lead scavengers - variety of refinery-specific factors, the most cost- substances such as ethylene dibromide and effective and technically optimal solutions of dichloride - are added to gasoline together with reducing the lead content of gasoline may vary lead additives to increase the volatility and emission across refineries. of lead combustion by-products. Lead scavengers, World-wide experience and estimates indicate besides raising health concerns2, increase corrosion that annualized investment expenditures and added especially in the engine exhaust system. Lead operating costs associated with the removal of lead additives and their scavengers, therefore, are known from gasoline are typically in the range of US$ 0.01- toincreasevehiclemaintenancecostsduetotheneed 0.02 per liter (Lovei, 1996; Thomas, 1995). for more frequent oil, spark plug and muffler Preliminary estimates and experience in CEE change. Maintenance cost savings associated with confirm similar magnitude of costs. the switch to unleaded gasoline were reported in A modeling study was undertaken to provide a the range of US$ 0.003-0.024 per liter of gasoline in preliminary assessment of the technical and a number of countries (Walsh, 1995). In the U.S., economic feasibility and costs of lead phase-out in these savings were found to exceed the potential a country, Romania, where no significant measures maintenance costs associated with the recession of had been taken previously to reduce the use of lead soft valve seats in the 1980s (U.S. EPA, 1985). in gasoline sold on the domestic market (Hirshfeld and Kolb, 1995). Romanian refineries are still Costs of Phasing Out Lead from Gasoline allowed to add maximum 0.6 metallic lead per liter to gasoline (g/l) sold domestically. These levels are Most CEE countries have their own refineries and more than three times higher than the current EU gasoline production capacity (Annex A). A few standard for premium leaded gasoline (0.15 g/l). countries (for example, Armenia, Estonia, Moldova, Given the expected growth in economic activity in Tajikistan) import all their gasoline, while some (for Romania and the consequent increase in gasoline example, Croatia) import a large share of their consumption, phasing out lead is necessary in order domestic gasoline consumption. For gasoline to avoid significant increases in lead exposures in importer countries, the incremental cost of switching the near future. The country's intent to join the EU to unleaded gasoline is determined by the price also makes preparation of a lead phase-out strategy difference of unleaded and leaded gasoline on their necessary and desirable. Preliminary modeling main import markets. Large regional markets (for results indicated that: example Mediterranean) have been offering . Romania's large inland refineries could unleaded gasoline at very competitive prices (Box reduce the lead content of gasoline relying on 2.2). Frequently, unleaded gasoline prices have been lower for some octane grades (for example, 95 RON)2 thanlow er for de octane strrades (forexample, 95Rin 2Lead scavengers, most notably ethylene dibromide, have than leaded, due to structural overcapacities inbeen found to be carcinogenic in animals, and have been production. The cost of switching from leaded to identified as potential human carcinogens by the U.S. unleaded gasoline for gasoline importers, therefore, National Cancer Institute. 11 Box 2.2 Gasoline Prices and Octane Valuation on European Markets Benchmark prices for gasoline in Europe are determined by the North West European and Mediterranean markets. Since premium and regular gasoline grades are regularly traded, the market effectively sets the value of octane in the 92 and 95 dear RON range. For high octane values, the market price differences between MTBE and premium gasoline can be used, while low octane values are indicated by the price difference of regular gasoline and naphtha. The market price of intermediate grade gasoline can be determined by using the appropriate octane value. The price of octane increases with clear RON reflecting an increase in production costs for higher octane components. The clear octane of leaded gasoline can be assumed at three points below its leaded octane grade. Additionally, leaded gasoline prices include the cost of lead additives. As a result, leaded 95 RON gasoline with approximately clear 92 RON is valued higher than unleaded 92 RON gasoline. However, leaded 96 RON gasoline is still valued lower than 95 RON unleaded gasoline reflecting the fact that boosting octane by lead addition is usually cheaper than by incremental reforming or adding MTBE. Source: Adopted from Chem Systems, 1996. existing process capacities, mainly due to the increase the share of unleaded gasoline in its presence of excess reformer capacity. The first phase gasoline production from 24 to 80-90 percent. of lowering the lead concentration of gasoline to 0.15 Additional investment (US$ 61 million) in g/l; especially if combined with process upgrading the refinery's semi-regenerative reformer optimization measures, could be carried out without to a continuous catalytic regenerative unit was reducing refinery operating margins. recommended to ensure the total removal of lead 9 Further reductions, especially below a lead from gasoline. Large part of this investment cost, level of 0.15 g/l, would also be feasible without however, was not related to lead phase-out only, adding to existing processing capabilities, however, since the current reformer had passed its useful life only by increasing the cost per unit of lead reduction and had to be replaced to ensure continuous gasoline as the lead level decreases, primary due to the production in the refirnery. purchase of high-octane blendstocks (such as The total phase-out of leaded gasoline was imported MTBE) and increasing the octane output successfully accomplished in the Slovak Republic of the refineries' catalytic reforming units. in three main phases (Case Study B). In the first * Prelimiaryestimates of the cost of removing phase, before 1986, the refinery adjusted to lead from gasoline in Romania did not exceed the government regulations that gradually reduced the range of US$ 0.01-0.02 per liter of gasoline. allowed concentration of lead in gasoline, largely Another modeling study (Abt, 1996) estimated by increasing the severity of catalytic reforming, the costs of removing all lead from gasoline adding MTBE to the gasoline pool, and introducing produced by a hydroskimming refinery in Nizhny refinery optimization measures. In the second phase, Novgorod, Russian Federation, in the range of US$ between 1986 and 1988, a new hydrocracking unit 0.005 to 0.02 per liter of gasoline including both was installed that enabled the refinery to start operating and capital recovery costs.3 It was also producing unleaded gasoline. In the third phase, noted, however, that the refinery was expected to after 1992, an isomerization unit was installed that undergo structural changes in order to better allowed for the increased production of high octane respond to market demand, which would not only gasoline components without increasing the amount facilitate the removal of lead, but also reduce the of volatile compounds. The investment costs, costs to be allocated to lead phase-out by about 50 percent. A feasibility study of phasing out lead from I Technical altematives included (in the order of increasing gasoline in Bulgaria (Chem Systems, 1996) cost of lead reduction): (i) adding octane-enhancing glycol- based DurAlt; (ii) adding octane-enhancing manganese- concluded that optimization of operations and a US$ based MMT; (iii) investments in FCC and hydrocracking 1.4 million investment to revamp Neftochim capacity; and (iv) investments in FCC, hydrocracking and refinery's FCC unit could enable the refinery to reforming capacity. 12 Figure 2.3 Distribution of Refining Capacity in the Former Soviet Union 8% 4% 4% 2'/o0o/o 2"/ Russia 1E Ukraine * Belarus El Azeibaijan 11 Kazakhstan I Lithuania * Turkmenistan El Uzbegistan * Georgia Source. Plotnikov et al, 1996 together with the increased operating costs US Conoco with the condition that the products associated with producing unleaded gasoline made by these refineries have to be improved. compared to leaded, amounted to about US$ 0.02 Investments planned to modernize the refineries per liter of gasoline at the Slovnaft refinery (Case were reported to reach US$ 480 million during a five Study B), which confirms the estimated price range year period following the privatization ("Czech of modeling studies. Republic: Refineries Deal", 1995). In Hungary, 42 percent of the shares of MOL, the previously fully Refining Sector Context state owned oil company, had been sold to investors by early 1996, and further sales are planned World-wide experience, studies in CEE, and the ("Hungary Pushes Energy Program...", 1996). The experience of the Slovak Republic clearly indicate Hungarian Petroleum Association has been actively that the removal of lead from gasoline is technically pushing for improvement in gasoline quality, and feasible, and the costs are modest. However, the from July 1996, only one grade (98 RON) leaded assessment of the extent and costs of necessary gasoline is marketed in the country. Hungary's technological upgrading cannot be easily biggest refinery, Danube, has been upgraded with generalized for all refineries in the region. FCC plant, visbreaking, and hydrocracking capacity, Additionally, the removal of lead from gasoline and further modernizations are in the planning cannot be separated from the restructuring and stage. In Lithuania, the only refinery was converted privatization of the petroleum refining industry. to a joint-stock company which does not produce Progress in this respect varies greatly among unleaded gasoline any longer. In Poland, significant countries. Those CEE countries (for example, the refinery upgrades are underway in the Plock Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Slovak refinery. Republic) which typically have a small number of The situation is less encouraging, however, in refineries and more advanced market structure, countries of the Former Soviet Union (FSU), where have liberalized their energy prices, and successfully about 85 percent of refining capacity is concentrated corporatized their refineries. Several of the Central in three countries: Russia, Ukraine and Belarus European refineries have been privatized, and (Russia itself representing about 66 percent) (Figure technically upgraded. The Czech Government, for 2.3). Macroeconomic instability, recession and large example, approved the sale of a 49 percent stake in structural, operational and economic inefficiencies two oil refineries to an International Oil Consortium have been inherited from the system of central consisting of Royal Dutch Shell, Italy's Agip and the planning. These problems cause limitations in the 13 Figure 2.4 Secondary Processing as the Share of Primary Distillation Capacity in Russia, the U.K., and the U.S. 140 0 Iso m erizatio n 120 MAlkylation c 100 M H yydroprocessing .- 6 0 MM . - C 3 . n Hy dro crack in g 6 0 OHydroreforming 0 An 1ll_ ]OThermal cracking 40 .*v . _ICat.crackin g 20 °Cat.reforming 0 Russia U.K. U.S Source: Plotnikov et al, 1996. adjustment to market conditions: operations and market orientation (IEA, 1996). Poor 9 Refinery utilization rates declined sharply since process control and refinery management practices the late 1980s leaving significant excess capacity as a often contribute to low energy and labor efficiency. result of the contraction of economic activity. * The structure of production capacity is Russian oil production output, for example, plunged undesirable. It is characterized by excess crude by more than 40 percent from its peak in 1987, and distillation capacity and shortage of downstream refinery utilization rates declined to around 60 conversion and upgrading capabilities (Figure 2.4). percent with a variation among refineries from 21 For example, only 12 of the 28 refineries in Russia percent (Groznyy) to 75 percent (Moscow and are equipped with catalytic crackers (some of which Ukhta) (IEA, 1995). In Belarus, production declined are more than 40 years old), and the average by about 65 percent between 1989 and 1993 (World conversion ratio of Russian refineries is around 10 Bank, 1995a). Ukrainian capacity utilization percent compared to corresponding ratios of 28 and deteriorated even more drastically: from 99 percent 70 percent in Western Europe and the U.S., in 1989 to 34 percent in 1994 and 20 percent in the respectively. Several big refineries have only first quarter of 1995. The largest and newest refinery, hydroskimming but no conversion capacity; Lysychansk operated at 10-19 percent capacity alkylation units are rare and only three refineries utilization rates in 1996 (IEA, 1996). are capable of producing MTBE (IEA, 1995). In * The slow process in market reform has created Ukraine, a study (John Brown, 1994) found that the obstacles to the market-oriented restructuring and Kremenchuk refinery was the only facility with adjustment of the sector. In Russia, product prices heavy oil cracking capacity (FCC). In Belarus, high were not completely liberalized until 1995 (IEA, quality domestic crude is becoming wasted due to 1995). Domestic oil prices rose from 20 percent of the technical limitations of the refineries to extract a world market prices in 1992 to 50-60 percent in 1995 higher share of light products (World Bank, 1995a). (Pugliaresi and Hensel, 1996). Retail prices of * A mismatch exists between refinery output and gasoline in 1994, however, were still less than 45 demand structures. This is indicated by the excessively percent of those in the U.S. (IEA, 1995). Additionally, large share of heavy products, which is also the vertical integration of oil companies into virtual reinforced by the undesirable production capacity. regional monopolies may further restrict, rather than In Ukraine, for example, gasoline yield in the foster, competition and consumer orientation. In refining industry averages about 16 percent Ukraine, five of the six refineries were corporatized, compared to the 45 to 50 percent yields typical in however, this had little positive impact on modern refineries (John Brown, 1994). In Belarus, 14 Table 2.2 Refinery Projects Under Preparation in the Former Soviet Union CountrylRefineries Total Capacity Types of Capacity Additions to be Added (bcd) Belarus/PO Naftan 66,000 Refinery, vacuum Catalytic reforming, vacuum Kazakhstan/Atyrau, Kazakhstan 259,400 distillation, FCC, Hydrotreating, MTBE/TAME, Crude refinery Russia/Achinsk, Afipsky, Angarsk, Khabarovsk, 1,265,000 FCC, hydrocracking, Kirishinefteorgsintez, Kstovo, Lukoil, visbraking, isomerization, Niznikamsk, Novo-Ulfimsk, Orsknefteorgsintez, merox, vacuum, coking, Ryazan, Saratov, Stavropolnefteorgsintez, Surgut, hydrogen, MTBE, CCR Tomsk, Tyumen, Yaroslavnefteorgsintez Turkneistan/ Chardzhou, Krasnovodsk NA Refinery revamp Ukrainel Drogobytdi, Kremenchuk, Lysychansk 377,700 Cat. reforming, cat. cracking, hydrotreating, visebraking, isomerization, alkylation, C5/C6, vacuum, MTBE Uzbegistan/Marubeni Corp. 100,00 Refinery Source: 'Worldwide Construction". 1996. only 40-45 percent of refinery feedstock is produced Belarus. Due to trade disputes over exchange rates as high value product (World Bank, 1995a). used in inter-republican trade, crude supply was Additionally, a mismatch between the location of stopped and operations of the refinery had to be refineries, their supplier and major markets often suspended in 1992 (World Bank, 1994). exasperates weaknesses in the product structure * The quality of products especially gasoline is requiring large transportation costs. The export of often poor. The bulk of Russian refined products, for refined products became unprofitable for many example, are well below Western European quality. Russian refineries, due to a rise in rail tariffs Only about 10 percent of AI-93 gasoline meets such (Plotnikov et al, 1996). The break-up or the FSU criteria (IEA, 1995), while about three forth of further deepened the problem of geographical gasoline is grade A-76 (Plotnikov et al, 1996). In mismatch by converting previously domestic Ukraine, the majority of gasoline produced was business relationships to trade among independent found to be between 78 and 80 Control Octane states. There are signs that this may lead to Number (CON) (John Brown, 1994) compared to 87, investments in new refinery capacity. Kyrgyzstan, 89, and 92 CON ratings of U.S. gasoline brands. Low for example, which had frequent difficulties with octane (A-76) gasoline still account for about 75 processing its oil production in the Fergana refinery percent of the total gasoline consumption (IEA, in Uzbekistan (the refinery was often unavailble to 1996). process Kyrgyz crude, and charged a high * Much of the refinery technology is obsolete and processing fee) (World Bank, 1995b), installed its the equipment perfoms poorly. These are consequences first refinery in 1996 ("Kyrgyzstan's First...", of insufficient attention to and investment in 1996) while Uzbekistan is also halfway through maintenance and technology upgrade in the past. the construction of a new refinery at Karaoul Bazar According to estimates (IEA, 1995), 80-90 percent of ("Uzbeki Refinery..., 1996). The break-up of the FSU the capital stock in the refining industry in Russia is also contributed to disruptions in the crude supply obsolescent and in poor condition, having surpassed of some refineries. The Mazeikiai refinery in its useful economic life. With the exception of Lithuania, for example, receives its crude supply Kremenchuk and Lysychansk refineries, much of the from Russia by a pipeline that passes through Ukrainian refinery capital stock is also obsolete (John 15 Brown, 1994). The operation of old equipment also production towards lighter products. The contributes to significant system losses, low technologically least advanced topping and feedstock flexibility and energy efficiency, and poor hydroskimming refineries will face large difficulties safety. In addition to obsolete refining technology, and higher costs to produce lighter products, and the equipment and facilities in the distribution and upgrading these refineries may not be justified on retail networks also need modernization. economic grounds. Traditionally, only a small portion of gasoline was The following are the main implications of the sold retail in the FSU, and enterprises and above situation on the removal of lead from gasoline: government agencies purchased wholesale, directly * In the short term, low utilization rates from refineries and direct depots. The number of facilitate the production of unleaded gasoline. In retail pumps, therefore, is relatively small and a refineries that operate with significant excess significant share of gasoline sales to private vehicles conversion capacity, the production of low lead or is made through illegal wholesale deals from tanker unleaded gasoline may be less costly than the trucks (frequently old, with low capacity and production of gasoline with high lead content, efficiency) with minimal quality control. especially given the current low octane requirements * Limited financial resources are available to of the car fleet. This has been indicated by the undertake larger investments. Due to low domestic modeling study of the Romanian refining sector, and prices and difficulties in the collection of receivables, also confirmed by refinery experts in Belarus. refineries have insufficient internally generated cash, - In the medium and long term, the exposure while disrupted financial markets and high inflation of refineries to market forces and competition is rates often limit access to medium and long-term expected to lead to the reduction of excess capacities. loans. Additionally, due to slow restructuring, Investments in rehabilitation and technology continuing government dominance or interference upgrade will be needed to increase the production in the sector and frequently changing or unclear of lighter products (Table 2.2). These new regulatory and tax treatment of foreign investors investments will increase the capacity of the have made refineries unable to attract significant refineries to produce higher octane gasoline foreign investments. blendstocks and unleaded gasoline. Demand for oil products is not projected to * Assessments of the feasibility and costs of increase significantly in the medium and long term lead removal have to take into consideration the in the region. Recent projections (EEA, 1996; IEA, expected technological changes that would take 1996, World Bank, 1995a) foresee domestic demand place even without phasing out lead, "charging" to stabilize well below levels reached at the end of only the additional costs to lead removal. 1980s. Factors such as the slow recovery of economic * Sectoral restructuring, and the rehabilitation activity; expected economy-wide improvement in and modernization of refineries, offer an energy efficiency;: the restructuring of industry opportunity to include lead phase-out objectives into towards less energy-intensive activities; and existing the planning phase. Clear lead phase-out commitment, global over-capacity in refined products depress schedule and policies are necessary, therefore, to ensure future demand for refinery output. As a result, the the optimal size and timing of refinery investments. vast excess capacity is expected to lead to the partial * Government policies and requirements fo- or full closure of several refineries. As oil markets cusing on the removal of lead from gasoline are ex- become fully liberalized, widening profit margins pected to accelerate refinery adjustments. between light and heavy products will shift 16 Chapter Three Policies and Implementation Cost Effectiveness The social benefits of reducing human exposure to specific data. Studies in western countries, however, lead can be grouped into three categories: (i) positive may provide some indication of the magnitude of impacts on neurological development and benefits. It was estimated, for example, that a one intelligence that affect lifetime productivity and point IQ reduction could be associated with a 0.9 earnings; (ii) avoided costs of the special education percent reduction in lifetime earnings in the U.S. The needed to deal with children affected by learning annual benefits of reducing the population's mean disabilities, the extra medical care of prematurely blood lead levels by 1 Iig/dl were estimated at more born infants, and the costs of treating adults with than US$ 17 billion (1989 US$), that is, almost US$ cardiovascular diseases; and (iii) avoided cost of 70 per person (Schwartz, 1994). As a result, the prematurely lost lives due to cardiovascular benefits of removal of lead from gasoline were problems caused by lead. estimated to exceed its costs more than ten times in Different methodologies can be applied to the U.S. (US EPA, 1985). estimate the benefits in each of the above categories. Although rigorous benefit-cost estimates have Statistical relationships between IQ gradients and not been carried out in CEE, a recent study (Abt, wages can indicate the direct effects of intellectual 1996) has linked the costs related to refinery performance on earnings. Adjustments are investments to certain health benefits in Nizhny necessary, however, to calculate the indirect Novgorod, Russian Federation. The study impacts, since IQ can also influence participation in concluded that, depending on the technical solutions the work force. Avoided educational and medical applied at the refinery to phase-out lead, a 1 ig/dl costs can be estimated relying on medical costs (cost- reduction in the BLL of exposed population would of-illness approach), and/or information on people's cost US$ 2.5-8.4 per person annually, assuming that willingness-to-pay (for example based on contingent no refinery restructuring and investment would take valuation methods). The most difficult problem is place without the lead phase-out program. The evaluating the benefits of reducing premature death. estimated cost drops to US$ 0.05-4.6 per person, Applied methods include compensating wage however, if a baseline adjustment in refinery studies and contingent valuation (for detailed configuration to new market conditions is assumed. discussion see, for example, Schwartz, 1994; Abt, A crude indication of cost effectiveness could be 1996). All these benefits depend on country-specific fal theser enefs dn on cos n bry -peif n PPP estimates of 1994 GNP per capita: US$ 25,880 and US$ factors; for example, on the cost of labor, capital and 4,610 for the U.S. and Russian Federation, respectively medical care, people's values of health and life, and (Source: World Bank, 1996). The 1989 U.S.$ benefit estimates their willingness to accept risk. Concrete estimates, were converted to 1994 U.S.$ using CPI: 116.6 (Source: IMF, therefore, are difficult to make without country- 1996) 17 obtained by assuming that the health benefits of * Incentive policy approach that uses price reduced lead exposure are similar to those calculated incentives and other incentive policy measures to in the U.S. in proportion to the relevant income promote the use of unleaded gasoline in cars with levels. Adjusting U.S. benefit estimates based on the or without catalytic converters. Such an approach relative purchasing power parity (PPP) estimates of may promote alternating fueling practices (using gross national products (GNP) per capital, the leaded gasoline only occasionally, relying on the expected annual benefits of a 1 jg/dl BLL increase "lead memory" of the engine) or the use of lubricant of exposed population would be about US$ 15 per additives for cars with soft valve seats that require person in the Russian Federation. some lubrication previously provided by lead. This Comparing this benefit estimate with the mid- approach may be combined with the gradual points of cost range calculations indicates that the reduction of the lead content of gasoline and the benefits of lead removal in Nizhny Novgorod may promotion of catalytic converters. It may be exceed the costs by 3-6 times depending on recommended in countries where the slowly assumptions about the refinery's adjustment to changing car park contains a substantial proportion changing market conditions and the technical of vehicles with soft valve seats, and domestic solutions selected to phase-out lead. Even higher gasoline suppliers may need some time to adjust benefit/cost ratio may be obtained by considering their capacity to unleaded gasoline production. Most the benefits of reduced car maintenance costs (see Western European countries, for example, Great Chapter 2). Such back-of-the-envelope calculations, Britain and France have followed this approach however, cannot replace more rigorous case-by-case (Lovei, 1996). analyses. * Rapid phase-out approach that encourages or bans the use of leaded gasoline even before catalytic Lead Phase-Out Approaches converters become universally used for the entire car fleet. The transition period from leaded to Although the removal of lead is expected to be a exclusively unleaded gasoline market is relatively highly cost effective measure, it requires a strong short under this approach. If the car park includes a commitment and appropriate policy intervention. significant share of vehicles with soft valve seats, Four main aspects of public policy intervention one or two gasoline brands, specifically designed should be emphasized: (i) regulations and for these cars containing a lubricant additive, may enforcement; (ii) incentives; (iii) a broad consensus be introduced. This approach has been followed of affected stakeholders; and (iv) public typically in countries that import all or most of their understanding and acceptance. gasoline supply (for example, Bermuda) or those Based on the world-wide experience of countries with a relatively homogenous refining capacity with phasing out lead from gasoline, three general capable of producing unleaded gasoline exclusively policy approaches may be distinguished: (for example, Thailand). Besides health benefits, this Technology-based approach that relies on the approach also reduces distributional costs by change of gasoline demand due to changing car eliminating the need for a dual system (leaded and technology (use of catalytic converters), typically unleaded) of storage, transportation, sales and relying on the mandatory use of catalytic control administration; and reducing the risk of devices on vehicles. This option may be feasible in contamination and potential misfueling. countries where (i) significant pollution problems In CEE, the technology-based approach alone would exist that can best be tackled by the wide use of result in a very slow phase-out of lead from gasoline, catalytic converters; (ii) the penetration of new car as most countries in the region possess car fleets technology is high (that is, the turn-over of the relatively old by Western standards, and the vehicle fleet is fast); and (iii) gasoline supply can be replacement of vehicle fleets proceeds relatively easily adjusted to a gradually but rapidly changing slowly. In the Slovak Republic, for example, the demand. The early lead phase-out program in the average age of the vehicle fleet has been 14 years, U.S., for example, was largely relying on this compared to 7-9 years in the European Union. approach. 18 The incentive policy and rapid phase-out approaches, double-digit growth rates were registered in several therefore, offer a more appropriate way of dealing CEE countries (Figure 3.1). The number of private with the vehicular lead exposure problem in the cars in Ukraine, for example, increased by 27 percent region. Many countries in CEE, including Bulgaria, between 1990 and 1994 despite serious economic Hungary and Poland follow the incentive approach hardship (IEA, 1996a). Urban areas have been combined with regulations reducing the lead affected by especially large increases in car fleets. content of gasoline, and supporting the use and In Moscow, for example, a 10 percent annual import of cars with improved pollution increase in the passenger car fleet was observed characteristics (for example, levying higher duty on during 1980-1990, and a more than 17 percent annual the import of older cars or mandating the use of increase during 1990-1994 (TME, 1995). catalytic converters on new and imported cars). As a result, the overall lead use in gasoline and the Regulations and Enforcement market share of unleaded gasoline have risen significantly in many cases. In most countries, it is not the technical capacity of The Slovak Republic is the only country in CEE refineries that constrains a significant reduction of so far which has chosen the rapid phase-out approach. lead used in gasoline on the domestic gasoline This policy was preceded and combined with an market, but the lack of regulations and incentives incentive policy approach to influence consumer to limit it. Gasoline importing countries (for behavior and smooth the transition. In order to example, Armenia, Latvia, Moldova, Tajikistan that overcome the technical obstacle of phasing-out do not have refineries and Slovenia that imports leaded gasoline presented by the existing car fleet about 80 percent of its gasoline need) have no serious (about 70 percent of cars have soft valve seats), technical contraints to accelerate the phase-out of Slovnaft refinery developed an additive which lead. Several gasoline producing countries including provided lubrication for the sensitive soft engine Bulgaria, Romania and Belarus, export significant valve seats in the absence of lead. The lubricating amounts of unleaded gasoline, yet do not require additive has played an important role in overcoming its use domestically. Romania, for example, exports the problem of old vehicles and slow fleet turnover. half of its gasoline output, all unleaded. The majority Some CEE countries, including Romania and of gasoline export of Bulgaria, representing about many of the former Soviet Republics, however, have 15 percent of its total production, is also unleaded. not started to implement a lead phase-out program In Belarus, more than 90 percent of gasoline yet. The maximum allowed concentration of lead in production is unleaded, but only about 70 percent gasoline has remained high (in Romania and several of gasoline used on the domestic market is unleaded. countries of the FSU it is still 0.6 g/12) and no Experience world-wide shows that a strong significant measures have been taken to facilitate a political commitment is necessary to introduce and change in gasoline demand. In these countries, enforce regulations aimed at mitigating human policy intervention to launch a lead phase-out exposure to lead (Lovei, 1996). Such regulations fall program is urgently needed in order to prevent a into two major categories: (i) environmental quality growing threat to public health due to human objectives that limit the maximum allowed exposure to lead as motorization increases. concentration of lead and other pollutants in the Despite the contraction of economic activity in atmosphere; and (ii) regulations necessary to comply most countries in the region during the late 1980s with environmental objectives including, for and early 1990s, traffic continued to grow. While example, the reduction of maximum allowed lead the number of in-use cars showed only moderate concentration in gasoline; other fuel specifications growth rate in most Western European countries, to ensure that lead in gasoline is not replaced by substances harmful to health; and regulations 2 In Russia and Ukraine, for example, the maximum lead content concerning the pollution characteristics of vehicles. is 0.3 g/l in regular gasoline, and 0.6 g/l in super (Al-93) and pre- Strict environmental regulations of lead are mium (AI-98) grades (IEA, 1995; IEA, 1996). present in most countries in CEE. Additonally, 19 Figure 3.1 Percentage Growth of Number of Cars in harmonization process would facilitate the accession Use in Selected European Countries, 1988-1991 process of these countries3. Gasoline quality in countries of the FSU is, however, below international levels (IEA, 1995; IEA, 1996a), and the revision of old Soviet standards are 50 l lunder consideration in several countries. It would be essential that the revised quality standards include new limits for the maximum content of lead in gasoline before significant new investments in the refining sector take place. Regulations are only effective if proper enforcement is available to ensure compliance. C. I' L When the maximum allowed lead content in ' - - ' ° 3 E refineries and importers comply with specifications; z_e = tn J 0 and (ii) distributors and retailers do not mis-manage the various gasoline brands. While the control and enforcement of gasoline specifications may be relatively simple at the production and wholesale Source: Eurostat, 1993. level, it may require a more significant administrative effort at the distribution and retail regulations of the lead content of gasoline are levels, especially if gasoline taxation is not designed necessary in all lead phase-out policy scenarios. The to prevent abuses in the system (see under Incentive first step should be the reduction of high maximum Policies). The use of colored dyes in the various permitted concentrations to lower levels such as 0.15 gasoline brands and differed nozzle sizes at the g/l or less. Further steps should include a deadline pump may also help the separation of leaded and for the total elimination of lead. Regulation of the unleaded gasolines. maximum allowed lead concentration may also be The environmental management effort to combined with other gasoline quality specifications mitigate the effects of lead exposures should also such as octane rating, volatility, the content of include the improvement of environmental aromatics, benzene and oxygenates. International monitoring and the evaluation of pollution control reference specifications may provide guidelines. measures. On-going surveillance, regular Several CEE countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, the measurement of environmental and biological lead Baltic Republics, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovak levels, ideally within a national lead monitoring Republic and Slovenia) have applied for network, are also essential to measure progress and membership in the European Union (EU). In these identify priority areas. Targeted testing of biological countries, harmonization of regulations with those lead levels should be based on high risk areas and of the EU is of high priority, and many have already population groups identified by environmental adopted EU gasoline specifications (Annex C). indicators. Targeted testing and intervention can Accelerating the phase-out of lead as part of this increase the effectiveness of policies. Incentive Policies 3 ThelimitofleadcontentintheEUisO.15g/l(however,aDirective Incentive policies can play a key role in smoothing ineffectsincel985allowsexceptionsforadjustmentperiodsduring the transition period of lead phase-out by which 0.4 gfl limnit is permitted). EU also requires that only one influencing gasoline demand and the adjustment of grade of leaded gasoline should be sold, with octane rating of at least 95 RON. A recent European Commission proposal gasolne supply. Differentated taxes can alter the recommended that a Directive should be adopted requiring total pump' prices of leaded and unleaded gasoline lead phase-out by 2000. grades so that, at comparable octane, the price of 20 Figure 3.2 Premium Leaded and Unleaded Gasoline Prices and Taxes in Selected European Cities, First Quarter of 1996 2.5 -lRetall price a 0 Belgium Czech Rep. Denmark France Germany Ireland Switzerland Source: derived from IEA, 1996b. Data for Denmark and Germany are for the forth quarter of 1995. Leaded gasoline: left coloums, unleaded gasoline: right coloums. unleaded gasoline becomes less than leaded gasoline provide an opportunity to introduce tax (Figure 3.2). To facilitate lead removal, such differentiation between leaded and unleaded differentiated taxes on leaded and unleaded gasoline gasoline brands. Most previously centrally planned brands have been successfully used not only in economies in CEE have switched from levying Western European countries, but also in CEE, for turnover taxes on petroleum products to applying example in Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria. In value added and excise taxes. Additionally, other Hungary, for example, differentiation in excise taxes charges and taxes may be levied on gasoline prices. levied on regular leaded (92 RON) and unleaded In Russia, for example, a 25 percent road tax is levied (91 RON) gasoline created an approximately 5 on the ex-refinery price. In Bulgaria, a road tax (15 percent difference in retail prices of the two gasoline percent) and environmental tax are levied (Box 3.1). brands (Figure 3.3) until July 1, 1996, when the sales Gasoline tax differentiation strategies may be of regular leaded gasoline was discontinued. In influenced by various considerations. Introduction Poland, the retail price difference between premium of tax differentiation may be carried-out in a (95 RON) leaded and unleaded gasoline has been revenue-neutral way. On the one hand, if revenue close to 4 percent due to excise tax differentiation stability is the main objective, initial tax (IEA, 1996b). In the Czech Republic, premium differentiation should be greater, gradually leaded (96 RON) gasoline prices exceeded premium declining over time as the market share of unleaded leaded (95 RON) prices by 4.5 percent in 1995, and gasoline increases. On the other hand, increasing the by 2.5 percent in the first half of 1996 (IEA, 1996b). difference in gasoline prices over time may be more Differentiated taxation also contributed to the suited to gain consumer support for the complete success of leaded gasoline phase-out in the Slovak phase-out of leaded gasoline. Republic where, in only eighteen months, a complete Retail price incentives may be introduced in and relatively smooth transition to unleaded various ways. When tax differentiation occurs at the gasoline has occurred: before the leaded brand was retail level, retailers purchase unleaded gasoline at withdrawn from the market, the retail price a higher wholesale price than leaded (due to higher difference between leaded and unleaded gasoline production costs), but sell such gasoline at a lower with similar octane rating (96 RON leaded and 95 "pump" price due to lower excise tax included in RON unleaded) reached 13 percent (Case Study B). the unleaded gasoline sales price. As a result, Ongoing price liberalization and the retailers are encouraged to mis-manage the various restructuring of tax systems in many CEE countries gasoline brands and abuse the tax system by selling 21 Figure 3.3 Regular Leaded and Unleaded Gasoline Price Structure in Hungary, Second Quarter of 1996 (Percent, leaded gasoline price = 100 percent) 100 90 20 70 60 iVAT 50 - L.l50 0t 0 0 i$0 -0 :$050. .00 j0? 00 . 00;0:0:t f: 0; glE:excise tax 20. 4 8 '"' 'r ' 00 m ' |||||| w ex-refinery price 30 20 10 30.4 31.7 10 Leaded Unleaded unleaded gasoline as leaded. Such incentives can be such devices. In the Slovak Republic, for example, significantly reduced and more easily controlled if catalytic converters have been required for both the tax differentiation occurs at the production level imported and domestically produced cars since and gets built into the ex-refinery price. 1993, and the import of vehicles older than 1985 has Alternatively, an environmental tax could be been restricted. Similar requirement have been imposed on the import or sales of lead additives introduced in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary increasing the cost of producing leaded gasoline. Poland, Slovenia, and Ukraine. In Russia, on the Control and -enforcement measures at the other hand, where catalytic converters are not distribution and retail level, however, will be still required, large vehicle exporters have to modify necessary. their vehicles, at an extra cost, to accommodate the Retail price differentiation favoring unleaded use of leaded gasoline due to the unreliable gasoline not only creates economic incentives to use availability of unleaded gasoline in certain parts of it, but also helps to avoid misfueling, the use of the country (Lovei, 1996). leaded gasoline in vehicles equipped with catalytic Government policies that allow market converters. Additionally, in the longer term, the mechanisms to work can also facilitate the availability and lower prices of unleaded gasoline adjustment of gasoline supply with consideration facilitate the wider use of cars equipped with of various options including technological upgrade; catalytic control devices. These devices reduce the restructuring of refinery operations based on the emissions of carbonmonoxide, hydrocarbons and purchase of high octane gasoline blendstocks and nitrogen oxides, and prevent the formation of additives (for example, MTBE); and the import of ground-level ozone; thereby they contribute to unleaded gasoline. Many small refineries, for further improvements in urban environmental example, may not be able to achieve necessary quality. CEE countries seeking membership in the economies of scale to justify investments in capital EU have started to harmonize their car emission intensive modern conversion and upgrading standards with those of the EU (Annex B). technologies. In the short-term, these refineries may Currently, these standards can only be complied phase out lead from gasoline without investments with by the use of catalytic converters. Many CEE by purchasing (importing) high octane blendstocks countries, therefore, introduced the requirement that or additives for blending. The economic viability of all new and imported cars should be equipped with such refineries, however, may be questionable 22 Figure 3.4 Premium Unleaded Gasoline Prices in Selected European Countries, Second Half of 1996 N o rw a y Germ any Denm ark Czech Rep. H un gary Sov ak i B ulgaria U kraine E ton ni B elarus R ussia R_om ania _ US C e n ts pe r Lite r 0 2( 40 6(1 K( I ( 1 20 1 40 Source: World Bank data. Data are for 1995 for Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. requiring their closing as part of the restructuring and financial performance and, as a result, their of the petroleum refining sector. Lead phase-out access to commercial sources of financing for new requirements, therefore, may accelerate the investments. Due to dysfunctional domestic restructuring process. financial markets in some countries, however, If refineries are allowed to recover the costs of refineries may need to rely more heavily on internal their production and investments in gasoline prices; cash generation or foreign financial sources than and the import of gasoline, gasoline blendstocks and domestic bank lending to finance their investments. additives are free of restrictions, refineries have no This requires improvements in the efficiency and major disincentives to undertake necessary profitability of refineries. investments. In some CEE countries, however, Market-based incentive mechanisms, for gasoline prices have only recently approached world example, a lead credit trading system, could also be market prices (Figure 3.4), and often still remain considered in some countries, especially those with regulated hindering full market influences to work a large gasoline market and great number of (Box 3.1). Other forms of Government interference refineries. A system of lead credit trading can be may also be present. In Romania, for example, not used to provide flexibility to refiners in meeting lead only the prices of oil supplies and refined products content specifications. Under this system, refiners are controlled, but regulated country-wide that produce gasoline with less lead than the transportation tariffs also conceal differences in standard obtain lead credits. These credits, in turn, costs; central planning is still in effect in the can be sold to other refiners that are unable to meet allocation of crude oil supply and the distribution the standard directly or whose costs of meeting the of refined products; and state-owned enterprises are standard are relatively high. If "banking" is allowed expected to do business with one another. The in such a system, lead credits may also be elimination of such Government interference is accumulated and used to help meet lower future necessary to allow the adjustment of refineries to standards. The U.S. employed this type of system market requirements. in the latter stages of its lead phase-out program, The corporatization and privatization of and it was generally credited for reducing the cost refineries are expected to improve their operational and accelerating the lead phase-out, and moderating 23 Box 3.1 Setting Gasoline Prices in Bulgaria Gasoline prices in Bulgaria are regulated by pricing formulas that reflect international world market prices. Ex refinery prices are determined by the following formula: PRd = {PM,d-Coct+F)X(l+RI,.,))X(1+Rc.s) Where Pef: Price (US$/ton) ex-refinery for a specific grade PMe: Platts Mediterranean FOB gasoline price for gasoline with 0.15 g/l lead content and 98RON/ 86MON octane rating C.: Octane correction assigning a value of US$ 1.5 per RON F: Freight adjustment (currently at US$ 10/ton) R,n: Charge for insurance (0.2 percent) Rcus: Customs duty (currently at 18.7 percent) Maximum retail prices are derived by the following formula that includes maximum gross marketing margin: Pc. =(P,f,X(1+MM,+RE) X(1+RVAT+RC) Where PCO: Consumer price Pp,j Ex-Refinery price for certain octane grade MMa: Marketers' margin (currently 22 percent) REX: Excise Duty (currently 60 percent on low octane (below 93 RON) and 100 percent on higher grade unleaded; and 70 percent on low octane and 110 percent on higher octane leaded gasoline) RVAT: Value Added Tax (currently 18 percent) RS: Special Charge (currently 10 percent) Besides the excise tax and VAT, a road tax (currently 14 percent of ex-refinery price) and environmental tax (currently 5 percent of ex-refinery price) are levied on gasoline products. While price formulas reflect world market prices, they also influence the refineries' incentive structure to phase- out leaded gasoline. It has been noted, for example, that the ex-refinery price formula tends to under-value octane and may create disincentives to increase the production of high octane gasoline blends. Source: Chem Systems, 1996. the difficulties faced by small or high-cost refiners Consensus-Building Among Affected in meeting the standards. However, the lead credit Stakeholders program adopted in the United States was Policies aimed at the reduction of human exposure implemented in a situation in which: (i) there were to lead can only be implemented with the support established commodity trading markets; (ii) refinery and participation of several government agencies, operators were profit-maximizers and had sophisticated tools available to optimize their industies, andepublic oganizations. The cooperation of government agencies responsible for operations; and (iii) a competent regulatory environent protection, publc health, and industry authority existed for insuring the integrity of the is necessary to set targets and determine a feasible trading system. Whether a lead credit program schedule of lead phase-out programs. could be successful in CEE countries as they make In order to introduce incentive taxation, support the transition from a centrally-planned to a market- from the financial and tax authorities is also based economy is unclear. Making a judgment on . . . the matter would require an in-depth study of the eseial. addit a o ord tio thst reguatoy an leal nstiutins reset i GE governmnent agencies responsible for the transport regulatory and lega institutions presesector provides information about the characteristics countries together with an assessment of. the capabilities of refinery operators to take advantage f the inte an f e onment oei into of a credit trading system.for the integration of envirornmental objectives into of a credit trading system. 24 sector planning and regulation. The consent of Public Information and Education domestic vehicle manufacturers to environmental A lead phase-out program can be more effectively regulations that may require a change in implemented if consumers and the public manufacturing technology and increase in costs is understand and support the objectives of the also essential. Vehide manufacturers may facilitate program. Public understanding iS part of a broad lead phase-out by ensuring that vehice engies can consensus building effort, however, due to its operate on unleaded gasoline, and providing significance, it deserves special attention. information and guidelines to vehicle owners and WhIe efforts to raise public awareness about the gasoline retailers on appropriate fueling and engine hazards of lead began many years ago, a recent maintenance. Oil companies, distributors and sociological study in Hungary showed that many retailers can also contribute, for example, by widely people did not know about the severity of health publicizing their willingness to compensate for hazards resulting from lead, or believed that they potential engine valve seat damage due to the use could not do much to mitigate the problem. of unleaded gasoline under recommended fuelng Additionally, the lack of information, and practice (such guarantees have been provided by miconceptions about using unleaded gasoline in gasoline distributors, for example, in Denmark). older vehides represents one of the largest obstacles Furthermore, the regulation of foreign trade, to changing consumer behavior in many countries. especially the regulation and taxation of vehicle v v f Measures to facilitate the lead phase-out process, imports should take into account overall therefore, should include general public education, environmental objectives to improve air quality and and targeted dissemination of information and phase out leaded gasoline. In order to facilitate the training. dialogue and cooperation among various Using the mass media, an education campaign stakeholders, an inter-governmental coordinating directed at the general public can better inform committee was established in Bulgaria, for example, people about the health hazards of lead, educate with the participation of a large number of motorists about the feasibility of using unleaded government agencies, industries, and other affected gasoline. Oil companies in several Western parties. In Romania, an inter-agency board was set- European countries, for example, have published up that is preparing an Action Plan for Lead Phase- information booklets during the late 1980s with Out (The preparation of such Action Plan is a detailed information about recommended fueling covenant of the World Bank's Road Project). for a large number of car models and model years Cooperation among gasoline producers, (Annex D). distributors and retailers is essential to ensure the Additionally, training car mechanics and gas supply and distribution of unleaded gasoline. In station attendants is essential to ensure that vehicles the Slovak Republic, for example, the transition to are properly adjusted, if necessary, to use unleaded an exclusively unleaded gasoline market was supported by close coordination between the gsoln,adta orc diei rvddt motorists about fueling and maintenance. Consumer Slovnaft refinery and Benzinol, the largest gasoline interest groups and organizations can be especially distributor in the country. The transition was helpful in disseminating information. Such implemented smoothly, without additional organizations also have to be consulted and investment in the distribution infrastructure. convinced that lead phase-out does not harm the Extensive coordination among producers, interest of their members. Therefore, they should distributors and retailers may be necessary before be involved in and informed about policy decisions significant changes take place in the structure of concerning gasoline quality. In Hungary, for gasoline brands in countries where a large number example, the Auto Club (a consumer organization of companies are involved in these areas. of car owners) is a significant player in the lead phase-out process. 25 Old fueling habits and the lack of consumer Despite the dramatic success in switching to knowledge about the dangers of lead and the use of unleaded gasoline, however, knowledge in the unleaded gasoline were one of the obstacles of lead community regarding the dangers of lead is still phase-out in the Slovak Republic. Public information considered inadequate. More efforts must be made, had to be designed to raise awareness about the new therefore, to inform the public of the risks of lead unleaded gasoline brands and their recommended (Case Study B). use in connection with the phase-out program. 26 Bibliography Abt. 1996. Costs and Benefits of Removing Lead From CEC. 1996a. Proposal for a European Parliament and Gasoline in Russia. 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World Bank, Washington D.C. and Organization for Co-operation and Development, Paris. 29 i Case Studies 31 Contents of Case Studies A. Lead Exposure and Health: Evidence from Hungary, Poland, and Bulgaria 35 Magda Lovei and Barry S. Levy Editors Hungary 35 Main Sources of Lead Exposure 35 Environmental Measurements 36 Biological Measurements and Health Effects 37 Poland 40 Main Sources of Lead Exposure 40 Environmental Measurements 41 Biological Measurements and Health Effects 42 Bulgaria 43 Main Sources of Lead Exposure 43 Environmental Measurements 44 Biological Measurements and Health Effects 45 Bibliography 46 B. Complete Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline: Policies and Implementation 49 in the Slovak Republic Anna Violova, Daniel Bratsky, Eva Sovcfkova and Monika Ursinyova Environmental Lead and Health Impacts 49 The Main Sources of Lead Exposure in the Slovak Republic 49 Exposure to Lead and Human Health 51 33 Main Factors and Obstacles Influencing the Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline 53 Vehicle Fleet 53 Gasoline Supply 54 Consumer Habits and Awareness 54 Government Policies 54 Regulations and Price Incentives 54 Other Policy Measures 57 Public Awareness Building, Education and Information 57 Adjustment of Gasoline Supply 58 Phase 1: Before 1988 58 Phase 2: Between 1989 and 1991 58 Phase 3: After 1992 59 Technical Solution to the Car Fleet Problem 61 Distribution Issues 61 Additional Environmental Benefits 62 Tlhe Economics of Phasing Out Leaded Gasoline Production 63 Bibliography 65 34 g: Case Study A Lead Exposure and Health in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence from Hungary, Poland, and Bulgaria Magda Lovei and Barry S. Levy, Editors Hungary Main Sources of Lead Exposure Traffic is the main source of lead exposure in large Figure A.1 Main Sources of Lead Emissions in Hungary cities and in the surrounding areas of busy roads in Hungary. The share of traffic in total atmospheric lead emissions reached 84 percent in 1994, followed by industrial sources and power generation (Figure 9% A.1). The total amount of vehicular lead emissions has markedly declined, however, in recent years in Hungary: from 673 to 108 tons between 1980 and 1994 (Table A.1). In Budapest alone, which suffers from approximately 25-30 percent of total lead emissions from vehicles in the country, the volume 84% of lead emitted annually declined from 90 tons in 1991, to 43 tons in 1992, and to 31 tons in 1993. The ETraffic mIndustry 0 Power Plants| aggressive distribution and promotion of unleaded gasoline resulted in a market share of 48 percent by 1994, and more than 60 percent by 1996. In addition, the reduction of lead in leaded gasoline Source: Levy, et al, 1994 from 0.7 g/l to 0.4 g/l in 1985, to 0.3 g/l in 1991 and Table A.1 Vehicular Lead Emissions in Hungary, 1980-1994 (tons per year) 1980 1985 1987 1991 1992 1993 1994 673 452 489 387 199 132 108 Source: Levy et al, 1994; Hungarian Ministry of Environment. 35 to its current level of 0.15 g/l in 1992 (which Figure A.2 Lead Emissions and Ambient Atomospheric corresponds to the European Union standard) also Lead Concentrations in Budapest, 1991-94 significantly contributed to the reduction of lead emissions. The amount of vehicular lead emissions was halved between 1991 and 1992, when the lead 100 3 , content of gasoline was reduced to its current level. = 80 2.5 . o Localized industrial emissions of lead originate 6o -2 from lead smelters, steelworks, and plants producing 2 '6 1a5 x metal alloys and lead batteries, as well as those E 40 dismantling used car batteries. Less lead originates 20 E05 sE from the glass, ceramic, chemical, and paint industries. 3 0* Several studies indicated that lead in food and water 0 o '3 are not at hazardous levels in Hungary. In Budapest, the only significant industrial source of lead emissions Lead em iss Ions (a lead processing plant) was permanently closed - Atmosphericleadconcentrations down in the early 1990s, leaving traffic the only main source of lead exposure (Box A.1). Source: Levy et al, 1994, Rudnai et al, 1995. (Lead emissions data for 1994 are not available.) Environmental Measurements A strong relationship between heavy traffic and of traffic volume, for example, resulted in a 1.2 jig/ high lead concentrations in the ambient air has been m3 increase in atmospheric lead concentrations at repeatedly demonstrated. In Budapest, for example, one of the locations in Budapest. Vehicular lead neighborhoods with heavy traffic had mean emissions were also shown to affect the lead airborne lead levels of 2.5-5.4 jig/m3 in 1985, while concentrations of indoor air. Mean lead airborne lead levels in the suburbs were 0.4-0.5 lug/ concentrations in peak hours were lower than the m3 (the ambient air quality standard in Hungary is values measured near the building on the pavement 0.3 Pg/rn3). In 1990, all 32 sampling stations in only by 10-30 percent on the first floor, and 40-50 Budapest measured values above the Hungarian percent on the second floor in apartments with open limit value, and 27 percent of the samples were windows. Soil smaples were also found to have above 3 jig/m3. Other large cities had similarly high remarkably high lead concentrations near heavy concentrations. In the town of Debrecen, for traffic areas (Table A.2). example, lead concentrations varied between 2 and There is evidence that environmental lead levels 21 Pg/M3 in 1979-80. Ambient atmospheric lead have declined in recent years mainly as a result of concentrations were also found to increase parallel measures reducing the lead content of gasoline. An with the number of vehicles registered during the analysis of the trend of lead concentrations in day at busy traffic junctions. A 4.3 percent increase ambient air during 1991-1995 showed significant Box A.1 The Closing of the Last Major Stationary Lead Emission Source in Budapest The Metallochemia metal-processing plant in Budapest had processed industrial wastes since 1908. Because of suspected lead poisoning among residents of the surrounding neighborhood, an environmental health investigation began in 1977. High lead contents were detected in the dustfall coming from the plant. As a result, lead metallurgy was prohibited in the plant. Within a year, the lead in dustfall decreased by 90 percent. However, from then until 1990, when the plant was closed, used car batteries were still collected and dismantled there. In 1990-1991, airborne lead levels were elevated around the plant, complying with the limit value of 0.3 pg/rni only at a distance of 600 meters from the plant. However, airborne lead levels on the heavily traveled roads of Budapest (measured at 1.7-4.8 pg/mr in 1990, and 0.24-2.35 pg/mrn in 1991) were higher than the mean airborne lead levels around Metallochemia during the same period (0.37-0.48 pg/rn'), demonstrating the contribution to airborne lead levels from the exhaust of vehicles using leaded gasoline. 36 Table A.2 Environmental and Biological Measurements of Lead in Hungary, 1985-1986 City/Location Lead Source Lead in Air Lead in Soil Mean Blood (mg/kg) Lead Level (yg/dl) Romhany Ceramic Industry 41 16 Budapest Medve u. Traffic 5.3 298 27 Bern u. Traffic 2.9 100 23 Szolnok: Tallin u. Urb. background 13 17 Csady u. Traffic (center) 2.0 35 24 Abonyl u. Traffic (main rd.) 12 21 Hygienic Limit Values 0.3 100 - Source: Rudnai et al, 1989. decreases in 10 large cities (Rudnai et al, 1995). The Figure A.3 The Impact of Traffic on the Lead Exposure of lead concentration in ambient air progressively Children in Budapest, 1986 decreased in Budapest from the mean value of 1.7 pg/m3 in 1991 to 0.54 pg/m3 in 1994 (Figure A.2). A particularly large decrease of the mean 25 4 ambient concentrations (from 1.7 pg/m3 to 0.7 pg/ X .g m3) was observed in Budapest between 1991 and 1992, when the lead content of gasoline was reduced 15- to its current (0.15 g/l) level. The impacts of reduced l 0a - lead use in gasoline appear to have leveled off, . however, after 1993. Only a small decrease (from c 5 i 0.6 pg/mr to 0.54 pg/rn) was observed in the mean 0 ambient concentrations between 1993 and 1994, and Dwntown Suburbs no further improvement occurred in the rate (83 percent) of samples above the Hungarian limit value in 1985. Source: Rudnaiet al, 1990 Biological Measurements and Health Effects Data from Hungarian studies show a strong children living in downtown areas and suburbs was relationship between the BLLs of children and also demonstrated in Budapest in 1986 (Figure A.3, traffic. A study in the city of Szolnok, for example, Table A.3). showed that children living in the city center with Only limited attempts were made to confirm the heavy traffic had a mean BLL of 23.7 pg/dl; those impacts of lead exposure on the intellectual living near the main road, 21.0 pg/dl; and those performance of children exposed to different levels not living near heavy traffic, 16.6 pg/dl. A study of of lead in Budapest. Socio-economic status was over 180 children aged 9-10 years inSopron showed found to be the most significant factor of the that the percentage of children with BLLs over 10 measured IQ of children (Rudnai, 1995). These pg/dl declined from 11.5 percent in 1992 to 8.2 factors, such as the education of parents and family percent in 1993, after traffic in the city was re-routed. income, were also likely to confound the A significant difference in the mean BLLs of studied relationship was demonstrated between lead 37 exposures and IQ levels. Due to the relatively small socio-economic and other conditions in the two sample and the likelihood of confounding factors, groups. no clear statistical relationship was demonstrated Other studies in Hungary did show a significant between exposure to lead and intellectual statistical relationship between BLLs and IQ performance in Budapest. Based on internationally measures. hi the industrial town of Romhany, for established epidemiological evidence, however, example, IQs of children with higher than 20 pg/ differences in exposures of children in downtown dl BLLs were 10 points lower, on average, than IQ areas and suburbs may have caused more than 4 scores of those with BLLs lower than 10 pg/dl. In IQ points difference in the measurable intelligence Szolnok, an average of 3.5 IQ points difference was of the two groups of children, assuming similar found by another study (Hertzman, 1995). Table A.3 Mean Blood Lead Levels in Budapest, 1986 Group Area Number Tested Mean BLL Percent Above 124g/dl 20 ,g/dl Men Downtown 63 14 59 14 Suburb 74 13 45 11 Women Downtown 70 11 39 4 Suburb 76 9 17 5 Pregnant Women Downtown 17 9 18 0 Suburb 38 10 32 0 Children (age 7-9) Downtown 70 25 89 57 Suburb 59 8 7 2 Source: Rudnai et al, 1990. Table A.4 Blood Lead Levels of Children in Budapest, 1990-93 Year Age Range Type of Area Number Tested Percent Above 10 yg/dl 20 yg/dl 1990 6 - 8 Traffic 193 17 1 1991 3-6 Traffic 21 67 0 1991-92 14-15 ? 43 0 0 1992 2 -12 ? 35 0 0 1992 9 - 10 Traffic 98 11 0 1993 6-14 Traffic 70 13 0 1993 14-18 ? 20 5 0 Source: Rudnai et al, 1995. Table A.5 Blood Lead Levels of Children Outside Budapest, 1990-93 Year Age Range Type of Area Number Tested Percent Above 10 yg/dl 20 yg/dl 1990 9 -10 Vac 14 0 0 1990 6 -10 Vac 14 7 0 1991 9- 10 Gyor 139 1 0 1992 9 - 10 Sopron 182 12 4 1993 9 - 10 Sopron 183 8 0 Source: Rudnai et al, 1995 38 Table A.6 Mean Blood Lead Levels of Hospitalized Children* of 0-4 Years of Age in Hungary, 1994-95 City/Hospital Number tested Mean BLL Range Number with BLLs (ygldl) (pg/dl) >1lOHg/dl Budapest,Chfldren'sHospital,Buda 4 4.15 2.4-5.6 0 Budapest, Heim Pal Hospital 27 5.38 1.7-9.4 0 Bekescsaba 24 3.92 1.6-11.0 1 Debrecen 73 5.52 1.1-15.4 3 Debrecen 39 4.54 1.9-8.0 0 Kiskunfelegyhaza 22 5.8 1.7-10.4 1 Miskolc 28 5.69 2.5-9.5 0 Pecs 38 4.94 2.3-10.9 1 Salgotarjan 54 5.34 2.0-9.9 0 Szeged 12 5.43 3.1-9.5 0 Szolnok 22 6.08 2.4-12.5 2 Szombathely 16 5.19 3.4-8.1 0 Vac 12 5.63 2.8-9.2 0 Total 371 5.25 1.1-15.4 8 Source: Rudnai et al, 1995. Children were hospitalized for reasons other than lead exposure. Box A.2 Sociological Issues of Lead Exposures in Hungary In May 1994, the Fact Foundation conducted a sociological survey of some population groups potentially at risk of lead exposure in their communities and workplaces (Fuzesi and Tistyan, 1994). This survey was part of the first phase of a project in Hungary, undertaken by Hungarian scientists and American collaborators for the purpose of facilitating a multi-sectorial approach to prevent lead poisoning. The purpose of the survey was to explore the knowledge, attitudes, and preventive measures in the target groups conceming occupational and environmental health hazard in general, and lead in particular. The target groups included workers, community residents, and parents of children who were exposed to lead. In addition, pediatricians were asked how important they considered lead exposure to be and how they defined their roles concerning the prevention of lead exposure. The most important conclusions of the survey were: * Workers exposed to lead knew more about the adverse health effects of lead than an average worker did, but this knowledge did not necessarily translate into taking appropriate preventive measures; * Significant lead exposure occurred infrequently in residential areas, and even when it did occur, residents did not give it high priority among their community health problems. Therefore, community-based preventive measures were usually not implemented; * People were generally not aware of the adverse health effects of lead and other environmental hazards and they tended to neglect them; * The surveyed groups generally did not believe that information in the media was accurate, however tended to believe information from the media more than they did from other sources; * Pediatricians did not know significantly more about the adverse health effects of lead than laymen did; and * Almost 70 percent of those surveyed thought that they could not do anything to reduce the lead problem. 39 Recent studies of children in Hungary, mainly those Figure AA Main Sources of Lead Emissions in Poland of school age, have repeatedly shown that only a small percentage of children have BLLs above 10 pg/ dl, and almost no children have BLLs over 20 ,ig/dl. 15% There have been relatively few studies, however, 19% of preschool children who are at greatest risk of the adverse health effects due to lead. A study of 21 children aged 3-6 years in 1991 showed that 14 (67 percent) of these children had BLLs above 10 pg/ dl, although none had levels above 20 ,g/dl. (Table A.4). Tests of older children in big cities demonstrated a lower share of elevated exposures (BLLs above 10 pg/dl) (Tables A.4-A.5). Another study of 371 children aged 0-4 years who were c Trafic *IndustrI hospitalized in various locations across the country ] H-buseholds 13 PowerPlants for reasons other than lead exposure showed that their mean BLL was 5.3 pg/dl, and 2 percent had BLLs over 10 pg/dl (Table A.6). Source: Gorynski, 1995 While occasional testing of the general population of children does not show alarming (mainly coal) combustion in households; and 210 levels of lead exposure, high risk groups including tons from combustion in industry, mainly power children living in highly congested downtown areas plants (Figure A.4). Lead emission from industry have not been extensively analized recently. originated primarily from ferrous and non-ferrous According to estimates, about 10 percent of children metal smelting, production, and processing, (approximately 130,000 children) living in urban concentrated in the Upper and Lower Silesia regions areas have BLLs higher than 10 jig/dl. Targeted (Katowice and Legnica districts). These two regions testing and intervention based on environmental were responsible for 94 percent of the industrial indicators of potential lead exposure, therefore, emissions of lead. may be necessary. Lead production in Poland has declined from Anecdotal evidence suggests that iron 87,300 tons in 1985 to 62,300 tons in 1993. Industrial deficiency anemia may be common among children lead emissions have been also falling during the in Hungary. Children with iron deficiency absorb early 1990s, due to contracting industrial a greater percentage of lead from the production, and the installation of modern dust gastrointestinal tract. (They also have more filters. pronounced anemia than children without iron Although there was an approximately 50 deficiency.) As a result, individuals of lower percent increase in annual consumption of gasoline socioeconomic status, including children, may be (from 2.7 million tons to 4.1 millions tons) during more adversely affected by lead at a given level of the 1980-92 period, there was a reduction in annual exposure than those of higher socio-economic emissions from transportation from 584 tons to 303 status. Poland Table A.7 Ambient Atmospheric Lead Concentrations in the Administrative Districts of Warsaw (tg/M3) Main Sources of Lead Exposure Administrative No. 30. No. 33. No. 34. No. 35.No. 36. No. 37. Traffic is the largest source of lead emissions in Code Poland. Of 1442 tons of total lead emissions in 1990, 1993 1.264 0.400 0.623 0.248 0.107 0.375 570 tons were from vehicles using leaded gasoline; 382 tons from industrial sources; 280 tons from fuel Source: Goryrnski, 1995. 40 Table A.8 Lead in Selected Soil Samples in Poland Place of sampling Main Source of Lead Concentration (mg/lkg of dry mass) Northern regions No major source 3-25 Small gardens in Cracow Industry and traffic 226 (mean) Small gardens in Warsaw Traffic 21-185 Lodz Industry and traffic 6-650 Vicinity of Legnica copper factory Industry and traffic 30-18,400 Katowice region Industry and traffic <10-8,200 Source: Michna, 1991 Table A.9 Mean Blood Lead Levels of Children in Silesia, Poland 1982, 1986 Year of Number Mean BLL Number of Maximum Testing Gender Tested (lg/dl) BLLs > 20ug/dl BLL (yg/dl) 1982 Female 51 15.3 16 36 Male 42 19.3 18 41 1986 Female 128 14.0 15 54 Male 54 17.0 14 42 Source: Grabecki, 1993. BLL: Geometric mean blood lead levels Table A.10 Mean Blood Lead Levels of Children in Selected Towns in Silesia, Poland, 1988-1990 Town Year of Number Mean BLL Number Tested with Maximum BLLs Testing Tested (ig/dl) BLLs > 20(ig/dl) (yg/dl) Trzebinial 1988 45 (6-7 years) 13.0 10 36 Trzebinia 1990 50 (6-7 years) 11.7 5 33 Bytom2 1989 136 (6-7 years) 15.0 32 36 Bytom 1990 416 (6-7 years) 13.0 77 36 Chorzow 1990 115 (34 years) 13.0 24 29 Source: Grabecki, 1993. BLL: Geometric mean blood lead levels '- Small industrial town 2_Large industrial town tons due to the gradual reduction of the lead content found to be at moderate levels grarely exceeding the of gasoline (its current level is 0.15 g/l). WHO guidelines of 0.5 ,ug/m ), except in Silesia. The concentration of lead in drinking water Even in Silesia, a decline of atmospheric lead does not exceed the Polish standard and is concentrations has also been registered during presumed to be an insignificant risk. Lead water recent years. At some locations in Poland, however, pipes are not used, and lead was removed from small increases in ambient atmospheric lead levels paint long ago in Poland. have been observed. In Warsaw, for example, where the major sources of lead emissions are traffic and Environmental Measurements power plants, some fluctuation in the ambient atmospheric lead concentrations have been Ambient atmospheric lead concentrations in urban observed. Between 1992 and 1993, concentrations areas are routinely monitored in Poland. They were increased in five of the six administrative units, 41 although only in one of them did they exceed 1.0 gg/m3(Tble .7) (Unortnatey, montorng ox A.3 Biological Monitoring of Lead Exposure jig/rn (Table A.7). (Unfortunately, a monitoring in Silesia, Poland site in central Warsaw that measured levels of 1 ig/! m3 or more in 1992 and 1993 was discontinued in A study was undertaken by the Regional Sanitary and 1994.) Epidemiological Station in Silesia to assess the results Lead concentrations in soil exceeded Polish of the biological monitoring of the impacts of lead standards (50-100 milligram per kilogram) in the based on cohort, prospective, and cross-sectional industrialized areas of Silesia (more than 100 times studies of primary school children and their mothers in the Katowice region and more than 300 times in during 1981-1990. The studies indicated that the lead mthe vicinityofthe Legonicand coppere facth 0 ( les m contamination of the environment in the Katowice the vicinity of the Legnica copper factory) (Table region is particularly widespread. In general, the A.8). Elevated soil lead levels were also found along region was divided into three categories: some roads, and in downtown areas of large cities, mainly due to the impact of traffic. Elsewhere, * The vicinity of large industrial lead emission however, soil lead levels are considered to be low. sources, where BLLs were twice as high as in rural areas; Biological Measurements and Health Effects * Large industrial urban agglomerations of the Upper Silesian industrial district, where BLLs of children Extensive blood lead studies have been carried out were 50 percent higher than in rural areas; and in the vicinity of large stationary sources of lead emissions. Mean BLLs measured in the vicinity of * Rural areas with significantly lower BLLs, but where a copper factory in Silesia in 1991 indicated that unacceptable BLLs could still be detected. exposures declined with increasing distance from I Table A.11 Mean Blood Lead Levels Among 2675 Children in Chorzow, Upper Silesia, Poland, 1994 (pjgdl) Gender Age of children (years) 3 4 5 Female 7.5 6.9 7.2 Male 7.2 7.3 7.5 Source: Gorinski, 1995. Table A.12 Mean Blood Lead Levels in Studied Populations in Silesia, Poland 1992 (pg/dl) Location Men Women Children N BLL N BLL N BLL Legnica 62 6.4 123 3.7 69 5.0 Krakow 59 5.9 96 3.7 99 4.8 Lodz 13 6.4 16 3.5 Walbrzych 66 7.7 56 4.4 48 4.6 Source: Jakubowski, 1993 BLL: Blood Lead Levels (geometric mean) N: Number of people studied 42 the factory: BLLs were 15.7 pg/dl for men, 11.1 ljg/ Figure A.5 Lead Production and Lead Emissions by dl for women, and 17.1 pg/dl for children at 500 the Kurdzhali Lead Smelter in Bulgaria, 1990.94 meters distance; and 11.6 pg/dl for men, 8.0 pg/dl for women, and 9.6 ,ug/dl for children at 4,000 12 120 meters. l O0 oco Studies in the industrial areas of Silesia indicate 80 some reduction in the exposure of children since 6 60 1982. Mean BLLs were 15-19 pg/dl in 1982, 13-16 Z 0 , co 4 40 -.2 pg/dl in 1986, and 11-14 ,g/dl in 1988-1990 (Tables .2 A.9-10). An extensive study of 2675 children A 2 20 x conducted recently in the town of Chorzow in Lol 0 o 0 Upper Silesia found that the mean BLLs were 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 between 7.2 and 7.5 pg/dl (Table A.11), indicating [i_iEmissions -Production index a 40 percent decrease compared to the results of a I previous (less extensive) study in the city in 1990 Source: Bainova, 1995 (Table A.10). Studies in other industrial cities (Data for lead emissions in 1991 and 1994 are not available) including Legnica, Lodz, Krakow and Walbrzych also found mean BLLs of studied children in the relatively modest range of 4.6-5.0 pg/dl in 1992 Bulgaria (Table A.12). The number of people exposed to ambient lead Main Sources of Lead Exposure above the maximum allowable concentration at work declined from about 6,000 in 1986 to about Transport, energy production, and industry are the 5,000 in 1990 (the great majority of these people main sources of lead exposure in Bulgaria. Road worked in metallurgy). There has also been a transport accounts for 61 percent of atmospheric decline (from 202 cases in 1988 to only 117 in 1991) lead emissions with the remainder coming mainly in cases of lead poisoning in recent years (90 percent from industry, especially non-ferrous metal of these cases occurred in the Katowice district). production. industrial "hot spots" have been With the exceptionof workers inmetallurgy and identified in Bulgaria that pose increased health other lead-emitting industries, mean BLLs in adults risks to their workers and the population in the did not exceed 9 pg/dl in males and 6 pg/dl in vicinity. The share of lead emissions originating females in Poland. In 1989-1990, mean BLLs in from large stationary sources in some "hot spots" children in non-polluted areas in Poland were reached 90 percent in the late 1980s. around 8 ,ig/dl, and about 0.5 percent of children Total lead emissions have declined recently, had lead levels above 20 pg/dl. A similar mean primarily due to (i) reduced vehicular lead concentration-about 7 pg/dl- was observed two emissions as a result of the decreasing lead content years later. In Warsaw, the BLLs of 179 children of gasoline, and the growing use of unleaded aged 0-14 years were measured in 1994. Among gasoline; (ii) declining industrial production; and those above 1 year of age, the mean BLL was about (iii) emission control measures at industrial sources. 6 pg/dl; and the BLLs of approximately 9 percent Due to emission control measures, industrial of the children exceeded 13 pg/dl. In lead-polluted lead emissions have decreased in "hot spots" despite areas of Upper Silesia, however, mean BLLs were the recovery of economic activity. In the town of in the range of 10-21 pg/dl, and in some very Kurdzhali, for example, emissions from a large lead polluted areas, BLLs reached 40 pg/dl in selected smelter decreased dramatically even after the lead groups of males, and 30 ,ug/dl in a small group of production of the smelter started to increase in 1991 females. 43 Table A.13 Heavy Metal Contamination of the Soil of Kindergartens in Bulgaria Town Source of Lead Exposure Heavy Metal Content of Soil (mg/kg) Kurdzhali Lead smelter and traffic 250 Kurdzhali Lead smelter and traffic 261 Ostrovitsa Lead smelter 186 Haskovo Traffic 167 Source: Bainova, 1995 Table A.14 Mean Blood Lead Levels of Children in the Towns of Kurdzhali, Ostrovitsa, and Haskovo, Bulgaria, 1995 Location Age of Children Number tested BLL (yg/dl) Kurdzhali * 5-7 16 12.1 Kurdzhali * 7-14 22 10.0 Kurdzhali 10-14 17 9.9 Kurdzhali and Ostrovitsa 5-7 21 12.7 Ostrovitsa 5-7 5 14.4 Ostrovitsa 7-14 21 15.2 Haskovo * 5-7 13 10.1 Haskovo * 7-14 15 11.4 Source: Bainova, 1995. * Schools near road or motorway (Figure A.5). As a result, the share of industry in consumption of leaded gasoline decreased from 1.4 total lead emissions decreased from 90 percent in million tons in 1989 to 0.8 million tons in 1992, while 1990 to about 17 percent in 1993 in Kurdzhali. A the use of unleaded gasoline increased, accounting comparative analysis of the share of the main for 15 percent of gasoline sales in 1994. As a result, sources of airborne lead pollution showed that 73.4 estimated vehicular lead emissions into the ambient percent of ambient lead originated from traffic; 17.3 air declined from 295 tons in 1987 to 153 tons in percent from the lead smelter; and 9.3 percent from 1992. a power plant in the city. Traffic-related lead emissions are expected to Environmental Measurements increase in Bulgaria. The gasoline-powered vehicle fleet increased from 1.85 million in 1990 to 1.97 Environmental measurements of lead have been million in 1993. Many 5-to-15- year old cars that use concentrated in areas of large stationary emission leaded gasoline have been imported from Western sources. Ambient air concentrations in the town of Europe recently. A study revealed that 38 percent Kurdzhali, for example, as measured at three of drivers have motor vehicles that are 5 to 10 years locations by the Regional Environmental old. A social survey in Sofia in July 1995 estimated Inspectorate, show a marked decrease since 1992, that only 17 percent of the drivers used unleaded due to measures taken by the smelter to reduce the gasoline. emissions of toxic gases. Recently, lead Several measures have been introduced since concentrations in the ambient air have been within the late 1980s to reduce the use of lead in gasoline. the admissible average concentration of 1 pg/m3 The lead content of gasoline was reduced from 0.25 (the Bulgarian standard). Nevertheless, Kurdzhali g/l in 1987 to 0.20 g/l in 1988, to 0.17 g/l in 1989, had significantly higher ambient atmospheric lead to 0.15 g/l (its current level) in 1990. The total concentrations during 1990-1994 than the control 44 town of Haskovo with similar geography, Figure A.6 Changes in the Lead Exposure of Children meteorological, and demographic characteristics Near the Kurdzhali Lead Smelter in Bulgaria, 1991, 1995 (Bainova, 1995). In 1995, authorities measured the concentration of lead in soil samples taken in kindergartens and 16 schools near heavy traffic in the towns of Kurdzhali and Haskovo, and the village of Ostrovitsa. High 12- contamination was found in the soil of ' 10 7 I _ kindergartens in Kurdzhali, where both industrial o2 8| sources and heavy traffic contribute to the o accumulation of lead. Surprisingly, however, the 2 2i difference in the lead content of the soil between o - the town of Ostrovitsa, which has an operating lead 1991 1995 smelter, and Haskovo, where traffic is the only source of lead emissions, was small, underlining the important role played by traffic-related lead Source Bainova, 1995 depositions (Table A.13). Biological Measurements and Health Effects Measures to control large industrial emissions over of neurological development. Moreover, the reduction time improved the health conditions of exposed of emissions is likely to contribute to a significant populations (Table A.14). The reduction of human decline in the accumulation of lead in various exposure to lead near the lead smelter in Kurdzhali environmental media, especially dust and soil, further is reflected in a 31 percent decrease in the BLLs of reducing human exposures over time. children observed between 1991 and 1995 (Figure A.6).The BLLs of six-year-old children in Kurdzhali are, however, still 20 percent higher than those in the control groups. An analysis in 1995 showed Box A.4 The Impact of Traffic on Health in Stara statistically significant differences between the mean Zagora, Bulgaria BLLs of studied children in the town of Ostrovitsa In the town of Stara Zagora, the only source of lead in the vicinity of lead smelter, and the control group. emission is traffic. A study was conducted here to assess Thirty percent of the individual BLL values in the health impacts of vehicular emissions. The study Ostrovitsa exceeded 15 pg/dl. found that mean annual atmospheric lead Mean BLLs in one of the control groups from concentrations were halved (from 1.6 pg/m3 to 0.8 pg/ the city of Haskovo (with no significant stationary m3) during 1982-84, after traffic restriction measures lead emission source) were found unexpectedly were introduced in the city. Monitoring sites located high (11.4 ,ug/dl). This was attributed to the impact near busy highways also indicated significantly higher high 11.4pg/d). Ths wa attibute to he ipact lead concentration than those in less polluted areas. of lead emissions from traffic because the control Laboratory tests of white mice demonstrated a kindergarten was located in a central region of the statistically significant increase of lead in the mice city with intensive traffic. exposed to lead aerosols in the heavy traffic sites. A Although comparative tests of the intellectual study of population morbidity in ambulances and performance of children were not carried out in hospitals revealed a correlation between lead aerosols Bulgaria, internationally established evidence (CDC, and tumorogenic diseases. Hospitalized children 0 -14 1991) indicates that the approximately U.S. $4 million years of age showed correlations between various health investment in pollution control at the lead smelter in problems including inflammation of the upper Kurdzhali may have prevented a 1 IQ gradient respiratory systems and skin diseases, and their decrease in the intellectual performance of exposed exposure to dust and lead aerosols. children, primarily due to the impacts of lead on their behavior, coordination, attention span, and other areas Source: B 45 Bibliography Bainova, A. (ed). 1995. Risk Assessment for the Fuzesi, Zs. and Tistyan, L. 1994. Survey on Workers', Population of the Town of Kurdzhali Related to Inhabitants' and Children's Knowledge - Attitudes Environmental Factors. Environmental Practices Related to Lead Poisoning in Hungary. Management Training Center, Sofia, Bulgaria. Paper presented in the workshop on "A Systematic Multi-Sectoral Approach to Bainova, A. 1995. Lead Exposure and Human Health Environmental Health Policy and Program in Bulgaria. Technical Background Paper to "Lead Development: The Lead Poisoning Prevention Exposure and Health in Central and Eastern Project in Hungary." Budapest, Hungary. Europe." Sofia, Bulgaria. Gerritze, R. et al. 1993. "Update of Heavy Metals by Barko, E. et al. 1989. "Studies on Lead Exposure of Crops in Relation to their Concentration in the Children". Gyermekgyogyaszat. No. 40. pp. 362- Soil Solution." Plant & Soil. Vol. 75, pp. 393-404. 368. (In Hungarian). Gorynski, P. and Wijtyniak, 1995.Assessment of Lead Basmadzhieva, K. (ed.). 1991. Environmental and Exposure and its Impact on Health in Poland. Health Characteristic of Risk Regions in Bulgaria. Technical background paper to "Lead Exposure National Institute of Hygiene, Sofia, Bulgaria. and Health in Central and Eastern Europe". Warsaw, Poland. Bozhinova, P. et al. 1992. A Study on the Pollution of Soils and Agricultural Plants and Development of Grabecki, J. 1993. "Monitoring Lead in the Silesian Agricultural Systems and Structure of Plants, in the Population, in Particular Among Primary School Conditions of Pollution in the Region of the D. Blagoev Children." Medycyna Pracy. No. 6. Supplement 1. Lead Smelter in Plovdiv. "N. Pushkarov" Soil pp.86-99. (In Polish) Research Institute, Sofia, Bulgaria. Groszmann, M. et al. 1990. "Examination of Blood California EPA. 1991. Chemicals Known to the State Lead and Zinc-Protoporhyrin Levels in People to Cause Cancer or Reproductive Toxicity. State of (Children and Adults) Living in the Area of a California Environmental Protection Agency, Lead-Waste Processing Plant". Egeszsegtudomany. Office of Environment & Health Assessment, No. 34. pp. 308-326. (In Hungarian). Sacramento, CA, USA. GUS. 1994a. Environmental Protection Yearbook Dutkiewicz, T. and Kulka, E. 1993. "Reference (Ochrina Srodowiska). Warsaw, Poland. Levels of Lead in Children Living in Clean Regions of Poland" Medycyna Pracy. No. 6. pp. GUS. 1994b. Statistical Yearbook (Roznik 77-84. (In Polish) Statistyczny). Warsaw, Poland. Eikmann, I. and Kloke, A. 1995 - Ableitungskriterien Hertzman, C. 1995. Environment and Health in CEE: fur die EIKMANN-KLOKE-Werte. In Beurteilung A Report for the Environmental Action Programme von Schwermetallen in Boden von Ballungsgebieten: for Central and Eastern Europe. World Bank, Arsen, Blei und Cadmium. Dechema, Frankfurt, Washington D.C. Germany. Hlawiczka, S. 1994. Heavy Metal Emissions in Poland Farkas, I. and Sajgo, K. 1991. "Delta-Aminolevulinic - Evaluation of Emissions in 1980-1992. Institute of Acid Excretion as a Biological Exposure Index Ecology of Industrial Areas. Prepared for the in Children". International Journal of Environmental Ministry of Environment. Warsaw, Poland. (In Health Research. No. 1. pp. 174-182. Polish). 46 Horvath, A. et al. 1989. Determination of NAS 1983. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government Environmental Lead Exposure of Children in Management Process. National Academy of Hungary. WHO/EC Workshop on the "Lead Sciences, Washington D.C. Neurotoxicity Study on Children". May 9-12. Dusseldorf, Germany. Papay, D. and Horvath, A. 1992. "Research and Evaluation of the Activity of Metallochemia Hudak, A. et al. 1992. "Erythrocyte Zinc- Plant, Regarding Environmental Health. Protoporhyrin/Heme Ratio - Screening Test for Budapesti Kozegeszsegugy. No. 24. pp. 87-92. (In Detection of Iron Deficiency and Lead Exposure. Hungarian). Experiences with Hematofluorometer." Orvosi Hetilap. No. 133. pp. 847-856. (In Hunlgarian). Richardson, M. L. (ed.) 1992. Risk Management of Chemicals. The Royal Society of Chemistry, Huseman, C. A., Varma, M. M., Angle C. K. 1992. Cambridge, England. "Neuroendocrine Effects, Toxic and Low Blood Lead Levels in Children". Pediatrics. V. 90, pp Richardson, M. L. (ed.) 1988. Risk Assessment of 86-89. Chemicals in the Environment. The Royal Society of Chemistry, London, England. ITS. 1993. Prognosis of the Vehicular Transportation Development and the Environment. Instytut Richardson, M. 1993. Reproductive Toxicology. Transportu Samochodowego. Warsaw, Poland. Weinheim, New York, Basel, Cambridge, Tokyo, (In Polish). VCH Verlagsgesellchaft MBH. Jakubowski, M. 1993. "Biological Levels of Lead Rudnai, P. et al. 1989. Study on the Lead Neurotoxicity Among the Inhabitants of Poland". Medycyna in Children in Hungary. WHO/EC Workshop on Pracy. Suppl. 1. pp.15-34. (In Polish). the "Lead Neurotoxocity Study on Children". May 9-12, Dusseldorf, Germany. Jarosz, W. and Marchwinka, E. 1991. Impact of Emission from Transportation Corridors on Polution Rudnai, P. et al 1990. "A Survey of Blood Lead of the Soil and Food Products. Material presented Levels in Budapest". Egesszegtudomany. No. 34. during the Conference on Nutrition Ecosystems pp. 273-281 (In Hungarian). and Food". Warsaw, Poland. (In Polish). Rudnai, P. et al. 1995. The Impact of Lead Exposure Kertesz, M. 1994. Airborne Lead Levels in Hungary. on Human Health in Hungary. Technical Paper presented in the workshop on "A background paper to "Lead Exposure and Systematic Multi-Sectoral Approach to Health in Central and Eastern Europe." Environmental Health Policy and Program Budapest, Hungary Development: The Lead Poisoning Prevention Project in Hungary". Budapest, Hungary. Smith, M. A., Grant, L. D. Sors, A. J. (eds.). 1989. Lead Exposure an4 Child Development: An Levy, B. S. et al. 1994. A Systematic Multi-Sectoral International Ass'essment. Kluwer Academic Approach to Environmental Health Policy and Publications. Dordrecht, Boston, London. Program Development: The Lead Poisoning WHO. 1989. "Lead" Environmental Health Criteria. Prevention Project in Hungary. Paper Presented at NO. 89 Lead Health Criteva, the "International Lead Conference, Alliance to No. 85. World Health Organization. Geneva, End Childhood Poisoning". May 19, Washington Switzerland. D.C. 47 Winneke,G. etal. 1990. "Results From the European Zespoliwa, P. 1994. Air Pollution in Poland Multicenter Study on Lead Neurotoxicity in Biblioteka Monitoringu Ochrony Srodiska. Children: Implications for Risk Assessment". Warsaw, Poland. (In Polish). Neurotoxicology and Teratology. No. 12. pp. 553- 449. World Bank and OECD. 1995. Environmental Action Programme for Central and Eastern Europe. World Bank, Washington, D.C., Orgnization for Economic Development and Co-operation", Paris. 48 Case Study B Complete Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline: Policies and Implementation in the Slovak Republic Anna Violovd, Daniel Bratskq, Eva Sovcikovd and Monika Ursznyova Environmental Lead and Health Impacts The Main Sources of Lead Exposure in the Slovak Republic According to a 1992 inventory of heavy metal Significant stationary emission sources exist in emissions in the Slovak Republic, stationary sources several towns including Bratislava (chemical played a significant role in lead emissions (Figure industries, and an oil refinery), Dolny Kubin B.1). Steel and iron production (Steel and Iron (production of iron alloys), Hlinfk (aluminum Works in Kosice, and the Iron Works in Podbrezova) production), Kosice (the site of steel and iron emitted the largest amounts of lead to the production), and Krompachy (copper production). atmosphere (43 percent). The power sector, which With the exception of Krompachy, however, uses mainly coal combustion; and non-ferrous metal average ambient lead concentrations in these towns production were also significant contributors (17 typically did not exceed 0.3 pg/m3 (Figure B.2). (For percent and 7 percent, respectively). comparison, the annual average lead concentration Figure B.1 Main Sources of Lead Emissions in the Slovak Republic, 1992 17% 7% 4% _lIron and Steel In dus try _____ _______________ ~~~~~~~~~~~ Traffi c ...._ O3Combustion of Fossil Fuels E]Non-ferrous 2 %343% Metal Production 49 Figure B.2 Concentrations of Lead in the Ambient Air of Industrial Cities in Slovakia, 1986-93 5 2 43 \ Krom pachy Source. Slvnf Refinery\\\ Kogice KlEk\\\ Dolny 6uis 1lll\\\; 00 _ _ | | ll __\\\\>5 ~~00 Hlin th0g lo sse fm t h l | | _\\W~~~~~200 Bratislava _ _1 00 \ ~~~~~~~~1986 1987 1991 1993 .Source: Slovnaft Refinery in most European cities was generally in the range longer is, many of the pipe systems from that of 0.5 - 3 pg/m3 in the late 1980's.) period are still in operation, primarily in older Traffic was the second largest source of lead cities like Bratislava. As a result, 33 percent of emissions in 1992, after iron and steel production, the drinking water sampled exceeded the representing about 29 percent of total emissions in admissible standards for lead content in drinking Slovakia. Vehicular lead emissions have been water (50 pg/l, the same standard as in the EU) declining, however, due to the introduction of in the early 1980's. Since then, however, there unleaded gasoline in 1992 (Figure B.3). has been a downward trend: only 7.1 percent of Vehicles have been a significant source of lead samples exceeded the limit in 1989, (Uhnak and emissions in many countries. In some industrialized Rippel, 1986-1989), and at present, all samples are countries, transport has contributed to as much as within the limit value. 70 percent of the total lead emission load. In Austria in 1992, for example, before leaded gasoline was Figure B.3 Lead Emissions from Traffice in the phased out, the share of vehicles was about 74 Slovak Republic, 1992-1995 percent of the total lead emissions (159 tons out of 215 tons). Lead concentrations in urban air have been decreasing throughout Europe, however, in l D close correlation with the decreasing use of lead in | OD gasoline (WHO, 1987). Cities in Slovakia show a l D similar relationship between the decreasing use of E lead in gasoline and the decline in airborne lead concentrations (Figure B.4). Airborne lead is not the only source of human -l exposure. For example, lead was used in the past to solder pipes for drinking water. Although it no 50 Figure B.4 Lead Content of Gasoline and Ambient Exposure to Lead and Human Health Atmospheric Lead Concentrations in Bratislava, 1981- 1993 There are several pathways by which lead enters the human body. The two primary routes are ingestion c' 3.5 0.8 and inhalation. Based on the contribution of various C, 3 pahtways, FAO and WHO have established a = 3 - \ - 0.7 6 provisional tolerable weekly lead intake of 25 hg/ . 2.5 - kg body weight (PTWI). In a profile of average I 2 0.5 X dietary lead intake of adults in 14 European C 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~0~~C 0.4 . countries during 1980-1988, only Belgium and the o - 0.3 - Federal Republic of Germany exceeded the tolerable o 1 0.2 weekly intake. The former Czechoslovakia had an .' 0-|average weekly intake of 3 pg/kg body weight, far 0.o - + + X + + + | | | | t | -J obelow the tolerable value (WHO, 1995). _ CO LO r.- 0) 0 Dietary lead intake by Slovakian adolescents and children was monitored from 1990 through 1994. With the exception of vegetarian children, lead Antbient Airborne Lead Concentrations intakes were found to be only one third of the PTWI. - Lead Content of Gasoline In vegetarian children, however, lead intakes were higher (up to 43 percent of the PTWI). Cooking ingredients were also analysed during the time of Table B.1 Estimates of Lead Absorption From Various Media (vig/m3)l Mean Annual Lead Source Total Contribution of Air to Exposure Total (,g/m3) Air Food Water (%) Adults 0.3 2.4 10 2 14.4 17 0.5 4 10 2 16 25 1 8 10 2 20 40 2 16 10 2 28 57 3 24 10 2 36 67 Children (1-5 years old) 0.3 0.6 25 5 30.6 2 0.5 1 25 5 31 3.2 1 2 25 5 32 6.3 2 4 25 5 34 11.8 3 6 25 5 36 16.7 Source: WHO, 1987. 'Estimates in Table 1 are based on the following assumptions: air: respiratory volume per day: 20 m3 for adults, 5 m3 for children; food: lead intake per day: I OOpg, for adults (absorption 10 percent), 50pg for children (absorption 50 percent); water: daily water intake with a lead concentration of 20pgl1iter: 1 liter for adults (absorption 10 percent), 0.5 liter for children (absorption 50 percent). 51 monitoring children. Root vegetables, oat flakes, in 345 adults in Bratislava and northern Slovakia. soya, and rice were found to contain the highest (Table B.2) The highest average values (10.2 pg/ levels of lead (Ursinyova, 1994). dl) were found among male smokers. In Slovakia, adult exposure to airborne lead In the same study, the transfer of heavy metals ranges to around 60 percent of total exposure. For through the placenta of pregnant women was children, the range is up to about 15 percent (Table examined. The study confirmed that lead passes B.1). Airborne lead may be directly inhaled or may through the placental barrier. This is of particular accumulate in the soil, move about as dust, and pass concern because extended exposure to even low into food. Although industry comprises the main levels of lead may affect the neurological source of airbome lead, vehicular emissions are of development in children. Several studies indicate special concern. Vehicles, through their exhaust, that there is no clear threshold, and developmental disperse lead particles widely throughout the impacts occur at even low levels of exposure (WIHO, environment. Most of the lead emitted this way is 1995). in the form of submicron-sized particles with high Elevated blood lead levels impair the intellectual absorption rates. More than 90 percent of the lead performance that can be demonstrated, for example, coming from gasoline is emitted as more toxic with the Raven test. This psychological testing inorganic particles, while the organic lead fraction method is comprehensive, relating the intellectural (mainly lead alkyls) is less than 10 percent. Some performance of children to a number of different 30-50 percent of the inhaled particles are retained factors, particularly concerning the child's social in the respiratory system, and virtually all of this environment. Aside from blood lead levels, the retained lead is absorbed into the body. Particles in mother's education, smoking in the family, the the size range of 1-3 pm are also efficiently deposited child's birthweight, and other factors have been in the lungs. Larger particles are deposited with found to be significant in influencing test scores. The variable efficiency, mainly in the upper respiratory study focused on determining subtle changes in tract with incomplete absorbtion. children's neurological function and behavior in In 1986-1990, a project was carried out, examining relation to changes in blood lead levels. The study the Environmental Pollution and the Contamination of screened the mental and motor abilities of 395, nine Biological Materials and Food in Selected Slovakian and ten year old children living permanently in Localities (Truska and Balazova, 1990). One of the Bratislava. The following was revealed: tasks of the study was to monitor blood lead levels Table B.2 Blood lead levels in Bratislava's population, 1986-90 (gg/dl) Sex Age and Smoking Size of Sample Concentration Arithmetic Average Geometric Average Female 18 - 35 smoker 28 7.0 5.8 18 - 35 non-smoker 28 6.9 5.8 36 and older smoker 22 4.1 3.1 36 and older non-smoker 35 3.2 2.3 Male 18 - 35 smoker 40 10.2 6.8 18 - 35 non-smoker 30 8.9 5.8 36 and older smoker 32 10.0 8.8 36 and older non-smoker 30 10.3 8.0 Source: Truska and Balazovi, 1990. 52 Figure B.5 Consumption of Unleaded Gasoline in Main Factors and Obstacles Influencing the Slovakia, 1986 - 1991 Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline The magnitude of health impacts of lead resulted in 4 | @ g | | | 0 d a conscious effort of Slovak policy makers to address the problem. The positive experience of 3 industrialized countries in reducing human exposures by the removal or lead from gasoline 2 ~~~~~~~~~~~showed that it was a feasible and effective measure EIo 2 0 0 0 0 i i l l 1 to mitigate human health damage. Three key factors 8 presented obstacles, however, to the rapid phase- out of leaded gasoline in the Slovak Republic: 0 0 Unfavorable technical composition of the 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 vehicle fleet; * Low availability of unleaded gasoline supply; and * Old fueling habits and limited knowledge * Lead levels in children's blood ranged from of motorists about the use unleaded gasoline. 1.1 to 13.5 pg/dl; * Unfavourable neurological impacts could be Vehicle Fleet detected from 4jig/dl; * The group of children with higher lead levels An analysis of the reasons why unleaded gasoline in their blood showed lower performance compared was consumed at such low levels (Figure B.5) at with the group of children with lower lead levels. the end of the 1980's in Slovakia indicated that the (Those children, however, also came from families main limiting factor from a technical point of view including smokers, their mothers' had lower was the composition of car fleet in the Republic. education, and the children's birthweight was also Due to high vehicle prices and low personal lower.) The children with higher blood lead levels income levels, car ownership in Slovakia has not yet tended to have learning and behavioral problems reached the levels of Western countries. The at school (such as social intolerance and an inability situation has been changing, however. In Bratislava, to concentrate), and their parents indicated that they the capital of Slovakia with 451 thousand also had behaviour problems at home; inhabitants, the number of vehicles has increased * In intelligence tests, children with lower lead significantly since 1991, despite rising vehicle and levels (less than 3.5 pg/dl) had an average fuel prices (Figure B.6, and Table B.3). performance of 30.1 points, while children with Compared to the vehicle fleet characteristics in higher lead levels (more than 3.5 pg/dl) had an the European Union, the composition of car fleet in average performance of 28.4 points. The difference Slovakia is unfavorable (Table B.4). According to (1.7 points) between the groups was statistically the mobile source emission inventory, prepared by significant; and the Traffic Research Institute in Zilina, the number * In simple motor and concentration tests, a of vehicles in Slovakia provided with catalytic similar relationship with blood lead levels did not converters increased from 823 to 3,797 between 1987 appear. In these tasks, factors such as the mother's and 1993. Of those vehicles, the number with education and the child's birthweight prevailed. controlled catalytic converters increased from 312 The study results revealed that children's to 2,579. However, from the a total of 985,861 neurological development was influenced by blood gasoline vehicles in Slovakia, still only 0.4 percent lead levels lower than 10 pg/dl. The effects of lead had catalytic converters in 1993. This adverse was further influenced by other factors such as situation is changing, however. Legislation requires health and social environment (Sovcffkovi, 1995). that from October, 1993, only cars with three-way 53 Figure B.6 Number of Personal Cars in Bratislava of the car fleet in Slovakia used the 90 - 91 RON 1985-1994 leaded gasoline. The only producer of gasoline in the Slovak D 160- Republic is Slovnaft joint-stock company, U 140- _ established by the transformation of the former 0 . 120- - state-owned company in May 1992. Slovnaft is 2 1 00 -_ situated in the south-western outskirts of Bratislava, u ................ L =. . -- -- . 80 - - the capital of the Slovak Republic. In its refining and ~~ 100 **.--*--* . ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~---iuae-i-hesuh-ete-ousitso--ais-a 60 - petrochemical facilities, it process five to six million CD 40 - = - tons of crude oil annually. The refinery's technical o 20 - } capacity needed to be upgraded in order to switch to completely unleaded gasoline production (see E LO(DN CD O) co m O N CO under Adjustment of Gasoline Supply). co co a o CD ) -M 0 m 0 ) Z a 0) 0) 0) 0) CD 0) 0)! 0) Consumer Habits and Awareness controlled catalytic converters may be imported or Motorists knew very little about the proper use of manufactured (roughly 20,000 vehicles are being the various gasoline grades or that it was possible imported annually). As a result, about 4 percent of to fuel with unleaded gasoline. According to the fleet is estimated to have catalytic converters in surveys, ninety percent of the gasoline consumers 1995. thought that unleaded gasoline could only be used in cars equipped with catalytic converters. Gasoline Supply Government Policies Until the 4th quarter of 1992, the following gasoline brands were available on the domestic market: Regulations and Price Incentives * Leaded gasoline with the trade name SPECIAL - 91 (0.15 g/l, RON 91); When the Slovak Republic was established, one of * Leaded gasoline with the trade name SUPER the first tasks of the Government was to work out - 96 (0.15 g/l, RON 96); and an environmental policy and legislation to bring the * Unleaded gasoline with the trade name country into accord with requirements of the NATURAL - 95 (RON 95). European Union. Unification with the European Only a small number of filling stations UnionwasstronglysupportedwhentheAssociation (approximately 10 percent of all filling stations) Agreement was signed. Since then, all legislative carried inleaded gasoline, and more than 70 percent regulations approved by the Government and Table B.3 Vehicle Ownership in Bratislava, 1990-1994 Year Motor vehicles per Inhabitants Per Vehicle Personal Cars per Inhabitants per Thousand Inhabitants Thousand Inhabitants Personal Car 1990 278 3.59 226 4.42 1991 293 3.42 240 4.27 1992 309 3.23 258 3.87 1993 333 3.00 283 3.54 1994 342 2.93 286 3.50 54 Parliament must include an analysis of whether they Republic. In this regard, there have been two main harmonize with EU regulations. periods: (i) before 1993, when wholesale and retail Under the former government, the Federal prices were fixed by the government; and (ii) after Ministry of Traffic and Communications was 1993, when the value-added tax system was responsible for regulating mobile emission sources. introduced. During all of the first period and part After Czechoslovakia split up, these responsibilities of the second (until the end of 1993), the state held were passed to the new Ministry of Traffic and an exclusive license for purchasing crude oil. Due Communitations of the Slovak Republic. Under to these constraints, gasoline producers and the Ministry, legislation was established limiting the distributors had limited opportunity to influence the maximum permissible lead content in leaded retail price of gasoline and therefore the market gasoline to 0.15 grams per liter. share of unleaded gasoline. Since 1993, the The use of fiscal incentives to influence the govemment has set only retail price ceilings. structure of gasoline demand has been conditioned Although price differentiation was introduced in by the tax and price system in effect in the Slovak 1990 and the 2nd quarter of 1992 in favor of Table B.4 Comparative Vehicle Fleet Characteristics in Slovakia Slovakia European Union (%) (%) Group A: Vehicles with soft valve seats -- can use 70 20-30 unleaded gasoline with lubrication Group B: Vehicles with hard valve seats -- can use 25-30 40-60 unleaded gasoline Group C: Vehicles equipped with catalytic 4 30-50 converters - need to use unleaded gasoline Average age of vehicles 14 7-9 Annual vehicle fleet renewal rate 5 10-15 Phase-out year of vehicles in Group A 2005 2000 Table B.5 Prices and Taxes of Leaded Gasoline SPECLAL - 91,1990-1992 Year VWJholesale Price Retail Price Sales Tax Annual Average Annual Average (SK/MT) (SK/liter) (SK/MT) 1990 2,986 12.00 7,970 1991 7,953 16.00 12,600 1992 7,221 16.00 12,600 Table B.6 Prices and Taxes of Leaded Gasoline SUPER - 96,1990-1992 Year Wholesale Price Retail Price Sales Tax Annual Average Annual Average (SK/MT) (SK/liter) (SK/MT) 1990 3,097 13.50 8,980 1991 8,091 18.00 14,600 1992 7,488 18.00 14,600 2 Gasoline brands marketed in the UNI series contained a special lubricant that provided protection of the soft valve seats of older cars (see Adjustment of Gasoline Supply). 55 Table B.7 Prices and Taxes of Unleaded Gasoline NATURAL - 95, 1990-1995 Year Wholesale Price Retail Price Sales Tax Annual Average Annual Average (SK/MT) (SK/liter) (SK/MT) 1990 not available 13.50 7,670 1991 9,050 18.00 13,500 1992 8,365 18.00 13,500 Table B.8 Gasoline Taxation. Third Quarter of 1992 - 1995 (SK/MT) Trade name Type) from 3.Q 1993 from 1.Q from 3.Q 1995 of Gasoline 1992 1994 1994 SPECIAL - 91 LG 14,580--) 10,800 10,800 10,900 N.P. UNI GASOLINE - 91 ULG 13,380-) 9,390 9,390 9,800 9,800 Differ. (LG - ULG) 1,200-) 1,410 1,410 1,100 SUPER -96 LG 16,580i 10,800 N.P. N. P. N.P. UNI SUPER -95 ULG N.P. 9,390 9,800 9,800 NATURAL- 95 ULG 15,380() 9,390 9,390 9,800 9,800 Differ. (LG - ULG) 1,200() 1,410 ) LG - Leaded gasoline, ULG - Unleaded gasoline ) Sales Tax N.P. - not produced Table B.9 Wholesale Prices of Gasoline, Third Quarter of 1992 - Second Quarter of 1995 (SK/MT) Trade name Type") 3. -4.Q 1993 1. - 2.Q 3. - 4.Q 1. - 2.Q ofgasoline 1992 1994 1994 1995 SPECIAL - 91 LG 7,060 7,530 7,250 6,450 N.P. UNI GASOLINE - 91 ULG 7,600 7,930 7,750 7,050 6,340 Differ. (ULG - LG) 540 400 500 600 5UPER -96 LG 7,370 8,010 N.P. N.P. N.P. UNI SUPER - 95 ULG N.P. 9,090 8,680 7,980 7,235 NATURAL -95 ULG 8,160 8,890 8,300 7,550 6,840 Differ. (ULG - LG) 790 980 *) LG - Leaded gasoline, ULG - Unleaded gasoline N.P. - not produced unleaded gasoline (NATURAL - 95 versus leaded effort to raise the consumption of unleaded gasoline SUPER - 96 with the same octane level), the by adjusting the prices. This was especially crucial difference merely compensated for the higher during the 3rd quarter of 1992 through the 4th manufacturing costs of unleaded gasoline. The retail quarter of 1994, when the leaded gasoline SPECIAL price of both gasoline brands was equal (Tables B.5, - 91 and unleaded UNI GASOLINE - 91 were sold B.6, and B.7). simultaneously; as well as during the 3rd quarter of The structure of prices and taxes changed 1992 through the 2nd quarter of 1993, when leaded radically in the third quarter of 1992. After gasoline SUPER - 96 and unleaded gasoline technological changes took place in gasoline NATURAL - 95 were marketed simultaneously. production, increasing the efficiency of Slovnaft Legislation (Act No.213/1992 Code on Consumption Refinery, and a new unleaded gasoline grade -UNI Taxes, with later later amendments) assigned GASOLINE - 912 - was introduced, there was an unleaded gasolines a lower tax (9,800 SK) than 56 Table B.10 Slovak Emission Standards for Gasoline Vehicles Date of Production Standardfor CO (%)* Standardfor HC (ppm) before 31.12.1972 6.0 2000 1.1.1973 - 31.12.1985 4.5 1200 after 1.1.1986 3.5 800 'measured at idling All cars being used must pass regular emission inspection. The emission liniits for gasoline motor vehicles are given in table 7.3. leaded gasolines (10,900 SK). pollution inspections. After the complete replacement of leaded There are various additional regulations gasoline SUPER - 96 by unleaded UNI SUPER - 95 designed to support the use of three-way catalytic throughout Slovakia in the 3rd quarter of 1993, the converters in gasoline vehicles: price advantage of the unleaded gasoline UNI * Act No.319/1992 on the Road Tax reduced the SUPER - 95 lost its importance. Currently, prices for road tax by 25 percent for two years on imported unleaded gasoline NATURAL - 95 (without lubricant) gasoline vehicles equipped with catalytic converters is priced advantageously compared to UNI SUPER - or vehicles running on natural gas; and it reduced 95 (which contains lubricant) due to the lower the tax by 50 percent for two years for vehicles manufacturing costs. (A comparison of taxes levied fulfilling the pollution standards with three-way on the various types of motor gasolne brands, and controlled catalytic converters; and wholesale prices are presented in Tables B.8 and B.9. Y Act No.187/1994 on Value Added Tax (VAT) Retail prices are illustrated in the Figure B.7). reduced VAT from 25 percent to 6 percent on Other Policy Measures catalytic converters. Several pieces of legislation have been introduced Public Awareness Building, Education and to set standards for the condition of vehicles on the Information roads, particularly the technical standards for vehicles produced or imported after October 1, 1993. Before the reform process began in 1989, all These regulations regarding exhaust emissions have information concerning the environment, pollution, become increasingly stricter (Table B.10). Currently, and its impact on human health was concealed. all gasoline engine vehicles must fulfil the following After the beginning of the 1990s, information started conditions: to be published and the public has become aware * New vehicles must be capable of running of the fact that the average life span of inhabitants permanently with unleaded gasoline without in the former Czechoslovakia and the Eastern Block additives for lubricating the valve seat; is generally shorter than in the OECD countries. * New vehicles must be provided with The public has started to keep an eye on functional controled three-way catalytic converters; environmental quality analysis and its priorities, and and to make it more health oriented. The intensified * Imported vehicles must be produced in the activities in the environment arena have also been 1985 model year or later. due in part to the leading role played by Vehicles that do not fulfill the above conditions, environmentalists in the dissident movements cannot be registered. Owners of those vehicles during the previous communist regimes. which fulfill the above conditions, but were In the past, the public was not well-informed produced before 1985, must prove, in authorized about the impacts of lead. In particular, information pollution testing centers at the owner's cost, that about lead in children's blood tended to be limited such vehicles meet the standards. In addition, all to the parents of children who had been specifically gasoline vehicles in operation are subject to regular studied. In the:future, more attention must be paid 57 Figure B.7 Gasoline Retail Prices Third Quarter of 1992 - 1995 (SK / liter) | SUPER -96 OUNI SUPER -95 IEINATURAL -95 MSPECIAL -91 *UNI GASOLINE -91|l 21 20 19 18 C C 8 C C m c- 8 X C 10 C to educating the public systematically. An Phase 1: Beforel1988 Environmental Agency has been established next to the Ministry of Environment of the Slovak Republic; In response to changing government regulations, the its task is to improve public information. The lead content of gasoline with trade names SUPER - Ministry of Environment has published an 96 (RON 96) and SPECIAL - 91 (RON 91) was informative brochure about heavy metals in decreased from the initial value of approx. 0.7 g/l Slovakia this year that will provide information on in the early eighties to 0.40 g/l in 1983. This was lead levels in children, and the risks they pose to healthy achieved by increasing the severity of catalytic development. reforming of heavy naphtha from the initial RONC of reformate 89 to RONC 91-92 and through the Adjustment of Gasoline Supply selection of light gasoline fractions. The use of software which simulated optimal gasoline The reduction of lead content in gasoline and blending, developed in the Research Centre of introduction of new unleaded gasoline brands took Slovnaft Refinery, had an important role in this place gradually in the Slovak Republic (Table B.11). process. The technical adjustment of Slovnaft Refinery to The next step in the reduction of lead content to produce unleaded gasoline at a large scale 0.25 g/l in 1986 was achieved by the optimization progressed in three phases. of the distillation range of light naphtha, whereby its RONC was increased to 75 by increasing the reformate RONC to 94, and the addition of MTBE 58 Table B.11 Composition of Gasoline Supply in Slovakia, 1982 - 1995 Lead Type of Motor Gasoline (trade name) content gPb/Il '82 1'83 1'84 1'85 1'86 1'87 1'88 1'89 1'90 1'91 1'92 1'93 1'94 '95 0,70 SUPER - 96 0.40 0,25 0.15 0,64 SPECIAL - 91 0.40 0,25 0,15 0°00 NATURAL- 91 0100 NATURAL995 A 0,00 SUPER PLUS 98 1 0,00 UNI GASOLINE 91 A 0,00 UNI SUPER 95 E Year '82 1'83 1'84 1'85 1'86 1'87 1'88 1'89 1'90 1'91 1'92 '93 '94 1'95 (10 percent of the volume in SUPER - 96 gasoline). was converted into reformate with RONC 96 - 98 This solution made it possible to start the production for motor gasoline by reforming) were obtained. of unleaded gasoline with trade name NATURAL - These changes in the technology of gasoline 91 (RON 91) at the same time. The technological production enabled the refinery to reduce the lead layout of motor gasoline production from 1986 to content in leaded gasoline to 0.15 g/l, and at the 1988 is shown in Figure B.8. same time increase the production of unleaded gasoline marketed with the trade name NATURAL Phase 2: Between 1989 and 1991 - 95 (RON 95). The technological layout of motor gasoline production in the period 1989 to 1991 is The next step in development was oriented to more shown in Figure B.9. complex crude oil processing, with the goals of maximizing motor fuel production and laying the Phase 3: After 1992 groundwork for increased production of unleaded gasoline. In 1989, the hydrocracking unit of heavy In the interest of setting the stage for the exclusive oildistillateswasputintooperation.Fromthisunit, production of unleaded gasoline, a unit for light hydrocrackate with RONC 80 and heavy isomerization of light naphtha (C5 - C6 hydrocrackate with high naphtha content (which hydrocarbons) started operation in 1992. With the 59 Figure B.8 Technological Layout of the Motor Gasoline Production at Slovnaft Refinery, 1986 - 1988 S ~~~~~~~L.P.G. Caaltc yorckn 17,l000-,jN'0 _"R L ~~~~~~~~~~BUTANX vsoera LnhC - C S5,80 Naphtha LIGHXT NAPHTHA( P :Brrcels pearg calendar daycd 60 l ReFORMATE Isomeriat Kenose HEV REFORMATE bP/cd:Bress Charg calendar daycd 60 Figure B.9 Technological Layout of Motor Gasoline Production at Slovnaft Refinery, 1989 - 1991 FL-tr;R LP.G. help of this unit, it was possible to raise the octane application of an adequate additive that could number of this component from RONC 70 to RONC replace the lubricating property of lead to protect 84. In view of the fact that the content of gasoline sensitive engine valve seats from excessive wear due is almost 30 percent light fractions, the wholesale to the use of unleaded gasoline. Other desirable production of unleaded motor gasoline brands by requirements of such an additive were that it: Slovnaft could be achieved through the use of * was health friendly (without toxic, isomerization without increasing the RONC of carcinogenic, or mutagenic effects); reformate and, therefore, without increasing the * did not compromise the efficiency of percentage of aromatics in gasolines. The catalytic converters; technological layout of motor gasoline production * was compatible with leaded gasolines; and after 1992 is shown in Figure B.10, and the capacities was compatible with other additives used in of the main production units are presented in Table gasolines. B.12. All these requirements were fulfilled by the additive which was developed in Slovnaft and Technical Solution to the Car Fleet Problem marketed with the trade name ANABEX®9 - 99. The existence of this additive has given rise to unleaded The only practical solution for overcoming the gasolines of the UNI series, a universal unleaded technical obstacle of phasing out leaded gasoline gasoline for the entire car fleet in Slovakia. The presented by the existing car fleet was the introduction of UNI - gasoline has significantly 61 Figure B.10 Technological Layout of Motor Gasoline Production at Slovnaft After 1992 f X _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~L.P.G. Petroleum l -!E-N31-!1!g- changed the characteristics of the gasoline market in less than three percent (Figure B.12). the country (Figure B.ll). The transition was discussed and coordinated Since the beginning of 1995, only unleaded with Benzinol joint-stock company, which at that gasolines have been distributed in Slovakia. The time owned the majority of filling stations in Republic was one of the first four European Slovakia (Slovnaft and Benzinol together owned all countries (after Austria, Finland and Sweden) to use gasoline distribution terminals). The replacement only unleaded gasoline, of the leaded gasoline SUPER - 96 with unleaded gasoline UNI SUPER - 95 did not incur any Distribution Issues additional investment in construction of new storage tanks for the new type of unleaded gasoline UNI The new UNI gasoline -UNI GASOLINE - 91 - SUPER - 95. The total compatibility of these two was introduced to the market on August 12, 1992. types of gasolines contributed to the problem-less Mass distribution began in July 1993, when Slovnaft transition. stopped production of leaded gasoline SUPER - 96, The replacement of the leaded gasoline SPECIAL and the unleaded gasoline UNI SUPER - 95 was -91 by unleaded UNI GASOLINE - 91 occurred in introduced and started to be distributed throughout stages from August 1993 to December 1994, in the the Slovak Republic. Simultaneously, the production distribution terminals of Slovnaft and Benzinol. Of UNI GASOLINE - 91 was expanded and its Similarly to the shift to 95 RON unleaded gasoline distribution spread throughoutSlovakia By the end brands, there was no need to construct new tanks of 1994, the percentage share of leaded gasolines was for storage of the new type of unleaded gasoline. 62 Figure B.11 Gasoline Market Structure in Slovakia, 1992 - 1995 Consumption [%] 100 -L. 90 - 80 _ 7 0 LEADED *_ 1 60 GASOLINES 40 -1'. .......... .. UNI seies of o zig_ I~~UNLEADED GASOLINES 30 _Az| g_ o 41: W;+ ,1t _M 3 1.Q 2.Q 3.Q 4.0 1.Q 2.Q 3.Q 4.Q 1.0 2.Q 3.Q 4.Q 1.Q 2.Q 1992 1992 1992 1992 1993 1993 1993 1993 1994 1994 1994 1994 1995 1995 The transport means (pipeline, rail- and autotankers) * Invested in a unit for isomerization of light previously used for leaded gasolines were utilized naphtha; after proper cleaning. * Developed the lubricating additive with trade name ANABEX® - 99; and Additional Environmental Benefits * Invested in a special unit for the production of ANABEX® - 99 additive. In addition to reducing lead emissions, the The investment costs of newunits (approximately replacement of leaded gasoline with unleaded has US$ 25 million), together with the increased additional positive effects. For example, the operating costs associated withfproducing unleaded emission of halogen compounds (chloroalkanes and gasoline brands compared to leaded ones, amounted bromoalkanes) associated with the use of lead to an average of 700 SK / MT (0.53 SK / liter), or additives (in the form of lead scavengers) has also about US$ 0.02 per liter. The relatively small been reduced (Figure B.13). increase in production price, together with the lower consumption tax for unleaded gasolines, has The Economics of Phasing Out Leaded Gasoline resulted in lower retail prices for unleaded gasolines Production at the filling stations, which facilitated the rapid In order to complete the transition from the atancccepe of unleaded gasoline brands. production of leaded to unleaded gasoline, Slovnaft has: 63 Figure B.12 Development of Gasoline Structure in Slovakia, 1992 - 1995 100 %-_. 80 %0/ 60 / PLU 103- LP- 98 40% 0% I Q 2.Q 3.Q 4.Q 1.Q 2.Q 3.Q 4.Q 1.Q 2.Q 3.Q 4.Q 1.Q 2.Q 1992 1992 1992 1992 1993 1993 1993 1993 1994 1994 1994 1994 1995 1995 Box B.1 Key Factors of Success in Eliminating Lead from Gasoline in the Slovak Republic * The commitment to environmental improvement in Slovakia by all interested parties; * Tax incentives for the production and consumption of unleaded gasoline; * General advancement in environmental understanding and changes in consumers' values and mind set; * A long-term strategy for the modernization of gasoline production technologies; * Participation of a highly qualified, expert team in the Research Center of Slovnaft Refinery; * Highly motivated management teams in the Slovnaft and Benzinol companies; and * Relatively centralized and easily controlled gasoline distribution network. 64 Figure B.13 Reduction of Halogen Emissions in Ursfnyova, M. 1994. Environmental Pollution and Slovakia, 1992 - 1994 Contamination of Food with Cadmium, Lead and Mercury in Selected Slovakian 80 Localities. (In Slovakian). Ph.D. o > Disservation. 60 lovcikova, E. 1995. Correlation Between Low Blood o0 Lead Levels and the Neuro-psychological E2 l | lll l _Development of Children. (In Slovakian). EW Institute for Preventive and Clinical o 20 il 111 I __1g_Medicine, Bratislava. 0 0 1992 1993 1994 WHO. 1987. Air Quality Guidelines for Europe. 1992 1993 1994 World Health Organization, Regional Office, Copenhagen. WHO 1995. Concern for Europe's Tomorrow: Bibliography Health and Environment in WHO's European Region Wissenschaftliche Truska, P and, Balazova. 1990. Environment Verlagsgesellschaft mbH, Stuttgart. Pollution and the Contamination of Food and Biological Materials with Toxic Metals in Selected Slovakian Localities. (In Slovakian). Institute for Preventive and Clinical Medicine, Bratislava Uhnak, J. and Rippel, A. 1986-1989. Environmental Impacts of Chemicals in Agriculture. (In Slovakian). Institute for Preventive and Clinical Medicine, Bratislava. 65 W- Annexes 67 Annex A Refining Capacity in Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union Annex Table A.1 Refining Capacity in Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union Country No of Capacity _ - -----C--arge Capacity (b/cd) ----- ---- ------------------- ----------- Production Capacity (b/cd) ---------------------- - --Gasoline --------- Refineries b/cd Vacuum Thermal Cat. Cat. at. Hydro- Cat.Hydro- Cat. Hydro Alkyl. Aromaticl Lubes Oxygen Hydrogen Coke Asphalt Max. Lead Unleaded Unleaded Distillation Operation Cracking Reforming Cracking Refining Treating Polim/Dim Isomeriz. Exyten Content Prod. as% Market of Total Share (%) Albania 3 40,000 na na na Armenia 0 0 na 0 0 Azerbaijan 2 441,808 137,200 38,529 32,986 24,466 25,300 930 27,064 1,400 4,151 na na na Belarus 2 724,967 67,661 98,108 342,107 9,687 7,142 9,630 0.8 90 70 Bulgaria 3 300,000 70,000 30,000 30,000 14,000 30,000 30,000 5,000 1,200 0.15 23 15 Croatia 3 294,275 61,200 17,230 32,000 37,400 51,540 24,507 2,620 170 0.6 40 30 Czech Rep. 4 187,139 52,313 24,798 22,000 82,285 2,700 3,770 2,063 103.4 12,698 0.15 47 55 Estoria 0 0 0.15 0 77 Georgia 1 106,436 24,809 10,276 10,800 3,819 0.37 rcm 98 H-ugary 3 232,000 116,500 14,000 24,000 29,600 38,000 59,000 3,300 9,800 4,200 1,860 10,800 0.15 60 60 Kazakhstan 3 393,611 121,037 55,068 38,356 59,452 207,353 1,003 21.5 1,000 8,550 na na na Kyrgyztan 1* 10,000 na na na Latvia 0 0 0.15 0 -50 Lithuania 1 263,420 83,223 29,525 43,692 25,741 213,363 1,061 24.6 6.333 0.15 100 78 Macedonia 1 51,180 10,780 20,740 3,490 0.6 na na Moldova 0 0 0.37 0 0 Poland 7 352,000 144,500 46,000 39,000 110,600 3,000 4,270 4,800 1,600 17,300 0.15 70 70 Romania 10 655,434 219,675 131,072 109,792 97,082 1,534 22,178 295,590 2,300 20,003 11,068 1,310 19.5 3,092 13,735 0.6 76 10 Russia 28 6,720,905 2,123,861 503,067 379,533 843,447 38,356 8,630 2,150,000 11,735 70,898 117,155 2,625 96.8 4,070 167,063 0.6 '50 -50 Serbia 2 168,246 74,850 21,700 20,750 21,033 18,970 28,500 3,400 2,815 1,500 0.5 10,300 na na na Slovakia 1 115,000 59,030 22,270 16,970 67,857 5,200 10,201 3,220 42.8 9,077 0.15 100 100 Slovenia 1 12,000 4.7 0.15 64 50 Tajikistan 0 0 na 0 na Tuzrkmenistan 2 236,970 71,231 28,568 15,151 32,540 33,300 2,251 1,040 415 na na na Ukraine 6 1,261,539 429,898 39,468 60,545 155,811 412,152 9,643 7,128 21.5 1,155 19,177 0.37 85 70 Uzbegistan 2*0 174,715 45,671 27,252 23,487 30,804 9,397 650 4,151 0.37 na na SoureOd and Ga Joa.ml Data Bsk Pe-nWell Books, Pen.Wol Pubhshing C,. Tulsa. Oklahoma, 1996; end OGI Specil Dec. 18,1995.; 1996; Abt A,sotaes; 1995; Ch-, Systes, penonal co,euniw-ahoo .tllh local ,operlo. New refinery installed in Oct, 1996. (OGJ, Sep 9,1996. p. 37) An additional 80,000 b/rd new refinery is under conslruction (0GJ, Aug. 26, 1996. p. 57) 69 Annex B Selected Vehicle Emission Requirements' European Union Annex Table B.1 European Union Emission Standards for Passenger Cars* (g/ Km) Substance EC 93 EC 96 EC 2000 EC 2005 Gas=Diesel Gas Diesel Gas Diesel Gas Diesel HC + NOX 0.97 0.5 0.7 - 0.56 - 0.3 HC 0.2 - 0.1 - NO 0.15 0.08 0.08 0.25 CO 2.72 2.2 1.0 2.3 0.64 1.0 0.5 PM 0.14 - 0.08 - 0.05 - 0.025 *Vehicles for less than 6 passengers Test: ECE/EUDC EC 93: 91/441/EEC Directive defines EC 93 requirements for normal passenger cars. Directive 93/59/EC includes 91/ 441/EEC plus EC 93 requirements for large passenger cars and light duty trucks. EC 96: Directive 94/12/EC EC 2000/2005: EU Commission Proposal of June, 1996, expected publication of final rule: end of 1997. Economic Commission for Europe (ECE) Annex Table B.2 ECE R 15/04 and ECE 83 Regulations for Leaded Gasoline (Approval A) (g/test) Substance Referemce volume (kg) Larger Larger Larger Smaller Smaller Smaller Larger than than than than than than than 1020 1250 1470 1720 1930 2150 2150 HC + NOx 19 20.5 22 23.5 25 26.5 28 CO 58 67 76 84 93 101 110 Source: Emission Standards Passenger Cars Worldwide. Delphi Technocal Centre, Luxembourg. October, 1996; CEE, 1996a. 71 Annex Table B.3 ECE R 83 Unleaded Gasoline (Approval B) (g/test) Substance Engine Displacement Smaller than 1.4 L Between 1.4 and 2 L Larger than 2 L HC+NOX 15 8 6.5 CO 45 30 25 NOx 6 - 3.5 * Limnits for manual transmission. Automatic transmission limits are multipliead by 1.3 for NO. and 1.2 for HC+NO. United States Annex Table B.4 United States Federal Vehicle Emission Standards (g/Km) 1980 1987 1995 2001 HC 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 NOx 0.62 0.62 0.25 0.124 co 2.1 1.06 PM 0.37 0.12 0.05 0.05 Vehicles for no more than 12 passengers United States, California State Annex Table B.5 California Vehicle Emission Standards Substance Conventional Vehicles TLEV LEV ULEV EZEV ZEV NMHC 0.39 Nox 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.02 0 CO 7.0 3.4 3.4 1.7 0.17 0 PM 0.08 0 NMOG - 0.125 0.075 0.040 0.004 0 HCHO 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.008 0 HMHC: non-methane hydrocarbon NMOG: non-methane organic gases HCHO: Formaldehyde TLEV: Transitional Lew Emission Vehicle LEV: Low Emission Vehicle ULEV: Ultra Low Emission Vehicle EZEV: Equivalent ZEV ZEV: Zero Emission Vehicle 72 Annex C Reference Gasoline Specifications Annex Table C.1 Current and Proposed Gasoline Specifications in the EU and the US EU EU US 1995 Fed. 2000 1995 Proposal for Conventiohal Phase I Possible Fed. California 2000 Gasoline Phase II CARB 2 RIVP, psi 10-15 8.7 8-9 7-8 6.5-7 7 Aromatics, V% NA 45 33 25 25 25 Benzene, V% 5.0 2.0 2-3 1.0 1.0 1.0 Oxygen, wt% 2.5-3.7 max 2.3 max - 2.0 min 2.0 min 2.0 min Olefins, V% NA 181/ 9.0 9.0 - 9.0 4.0 Sulfur, pm 500 max 200 max - 330 - 330 - 200 40 Lead, g/l 0.13 max 0.005 max 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013 Source: CEC, 1996b; Comitee European de Normalisation; Texaco. 1/ Except for regulat unleaded gasoline for which maximum olefin content should be 21 V%. 73 Annex D ta Recommended Gasoline Use in Selected Car Models Annex Table D. 1 Gasoline Use Recommended by Shell Corp. for Selected Car Models Vehicle Model Unleaded RON Leaded RON Dacia 1200; 1300; 1400; 1310; 1410 TLE; ARO 10.0; ARO 10.3 95 Daihatsu, all models 95 Fiat Panda 34; 45/45S; 750; Uno 45 (900) - 45 Sting; Tipo 95 126 95" 96 Panda 1000; 4x4; Uno 45 S Fire 1000; 55; 60; 65; 70; 127, 1050; 1050 GL/Panorama; 128 Uno 45 ES; Turbo; 127 Sport 1,11; 1,31 9521 98 Ford Fiesta; Escort; Capri; Taurus; Sierra; Granda; Scorpio 98 or 953' (98)3 Honda Accord; Civic; Quintet; Prelude 954/ (96)41 Lada all models 95 Mazda Most models Models produced before 1981 95 96 Mercedes-Benz 124 Series 95 126 Series 9551 985 107 Series 985' (98)5 Mitsubishi, all models 95 or 98 Nissan, all models 95 or 98 Opel Corsa; Kadett; Ascona; Manta; Vectra; Rekord 98 or 956/ Polonez, all models 95 Skoda 105; 120; 130; 130 LX Rapid 957' Rapid 136 L; Favorit 136 L 95 (96)7' Toyota all models 98 or 95 Trabant 95/92 Wartburg 95/92 Yugo 45; 511 98 Source: Benzinbogen. 3. Udgave Nu Kan Mange Flere Kere Blyfri. (Information booklet on the use of unleaded gasoline) A/S Dansk Shell, Denmark. 1989. 75 THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA Telephone: 202.477.1234 Facsimile: 202.477.6391 Telex: MCI 64145 WORLDBANK MCI 248423 WORLDBANK Cable Address: INTBAFRAD WASHINGTONDC World Wide Web: http://www.worldbank.org/E-mail:books@worldbank.org ISBN 0-8213-3915-X