The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Madagascar-Statistical Capacity Building (P160071) Madagascar-Statistical Capacity Building (P160071) AFRICA EAST | Madagascar | Poverty and Equity Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2017 | Seq No: 7 | ARCHIVED on 20-Nov-2020 | ISR44056 | Implementing Agencies: The Republic of Madagascar, INSTAT Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 29-Mar-2017 Effectiveness Date: 31-Aug-2017 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 30-Oct-2020 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 06-Nov-2020 Original Closing Date: 31-Mar-2022 Revised Closing Date: 31-Mar-2022 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) To strengthen the capacity of the National Statistics Institute (INSTAT) to produce quality statistics and to enhance its statistical dissemination practices. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Institutional Reform and Capacity Building:(Cost $3.40 M) Data Collection, Analysis, and Dissemination:(Cost $24.80 M) Project Management:(Cost $1.80 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions The Project Midterm Review concluded that the achievements of the project relate mainly to the implementation of the third population and housing census. At the institutional level, the new statistical law has been promulgated, some studies aimed at improving management have been carried out, and INSTAT staff were sent for training abroad. On component 2, other than the population census, the main results are those related to the technical preparation of the Household Poverty Survey (EPM) and the improvement of national accounts. Unfortunately, the fieldwork of the poverty survey (EPM) was suspended at the end of the first wave of collection in March 2020 due to the health emergency linked to Covid- 19. INSTAT intends to relaunch this field activity during the first half of 2021. In conclusion, the STATCAP project has enabled significant progress towards the objectives assigned to it. However, the prioritization of the population and housing census in the programming of activities was done to the detriment of the other components so that the latter did not take full advantage of the resources that were initially allocated. Component 1: 11/20/2020 Page 1 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Madagascar-Statistical Capacity Building (P160071) INSTAT has sent 19 students abroad to African schools in statistics and demography (Dakar, Abidjan, Yaoundé). 8 students have already successfully completed their studies in 2019 and 2020. However, 11 students are still in training. 9 students are expected to complete their courses by 2022 and 2 students will complete by 2023. Component 2: Population and Housing Census: Data entry for questionnaires was completed in February 2020. Data cleaning and processing was delayed by Covid-19, but was completed in June 2020. The global report was completed in August 2020. The national validation and official dissemination of the report at the national level will take place during the meeting of the National Census Committee (CNR) in November 2020. A validation workshop of the 17 thematic reports will take place in November 2020, after which the microdata will be shared with the World Bank. The Household Poverty Survey (EPM): The fieldwork of the survey on poverty survey began in January 2020. Unfortunately, this activity was suspended at the end of the first wave of collection in March 2020 due to the health emergency linked to Covid-19. INSTAT intends to relaunch this field activity during the first semester of 2021. Since it is urgent to obtain data on poverty, the survey will last 4 months. In November 2020, INSTAT is planning a series of workshops that will aim to prepare activities to relaunch EPM data collection and update some key points. Many of the computers/tablets acquired by UNICEF for the MICS 2018 survey and used in EPM data collection in early 2020 are no longer operational. The mission recommends proceeding as soon as possible with the procurement of new equipment (computers, tablets). Telephone surveys: INSTAT implemented telephone surveys to assess the impact of Covid-19 on households and firms. INSTAT plans to implement six waves of the household telephone survey and three waves of the firm telephone survey. Two waves of the first survey have already been implemented while only one wave of the second survey has been implemented. Preparations for the next waves of the two surveys are underway. Component 3: Given the unsatisfactory performance of the financial management team of the PIU, the project replaced it by an independent firm which, in addition to reviewing all the past financial operations of the population census, is providing all the service related to the financial management of the project as well. This recruitment was finalized in April 2020. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Substantial Low Low Macroeconomic Substantial Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial High High Environment and Social Low Low Low Stakeholders Moderate Moderate Moderate Other -- -- -- Overall Substantial Moderate Moderate Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes 11/20/2020 Page 2 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Madagascar-Statistical Capacity Building (P160071) Increase in the Statistical Capacity IN00911672 ►Increase in the Statistical Capacity Index (SCI) score for the SCI variables that the project will influence (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 62.60 64.30 55.60 71.00 Date 28-Mar-2017 31-Mar-2020 13-Nov-2020 28-Mar-2022 IN00911674 ►Number of statistical products supported by the project designed and implemented in line with international standards (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 1.00 3.00 5.00 4.00 Date 28-Mar-2017 31-Mar-2020 13-Nov-2020 28-Mar-2022 Improved data dissemination practice IN00911673 ►Number of statistical products that are released according to the statistical release calendar (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 1.00 3.00 5.00 4.00 Date 28-Mar-2017 31-Mar-2020 13-Nov-2020 28-Mar-2022 IN00911675 ►Number of views of anonymized micro-datasets available online (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 72,000.00 100,459.00 100,459.00 100,000.00 Date 28-Mar-2017 31-Mar-2020 31-Mar-2020 28-Mar-2022 Overall Comments PDO The Statistical Capacity Indicator (SCI) as worsened and declined to 55.6. The decline is associated with dated agricultural census, health survey, and coverage of the vital registration system, indicators that the project cannot influence. It is important to revise the target of SCI indicator downwards as it will not be achieved by the end of the project in March 2022. There was improvement in the number of statistical products supported by the project designed and implemented in line with international standards and the number of statistical products that are released according to the statistical release calendar, from 3 to 5, reflecting the Household and Firm High Frequency Surveys implemented by phone in the context of Covid-19. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components 11/20/2020 Page 3 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Madagascar-Statistical Capacity Building (P160071) Institutional Reform and Capacity Building IN00911711 ►Number of staff who have achieved improvements in skill/knowledge compared to a pre-training baseline (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 178.00 182.00 75.00 Date 28-Mar-2017 31-Mar-2020 13-Nov-2020 28-Mar-2022 Data Collection, Analysis, and Dissemination IN00911712 ►Number of census, welfare, employment, and business surveys implemented (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1.00 4.00 6.00 Date 28-Mar-2017 31-Mar-2020 13-Nov-2020 28-Mar-2022 IN00911713 ►Number of statistical reports funded by the project available online, disaggregated by availability of gendered statistics (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 2.00 2.00 20.00 Date 28-Mar-2016 31-Mar-2020 31-Mar-2020 28-Mar-2022 IN00911714 ►Improved national accounts and CPI (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 60.00 60.00 100.00 Date 28-Mar-2017 31-Mar-2020 31-Mar-2020 28-Mar-2022 IN00911715 ►Number of survey and census micro-datasets available online (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 Date 28-Mar-2017 31-Mar-2020 31-Mar-2020 28-Mar-2022 IN00911716 ►Focus groups held to gather feedback on the quality, relevance and timeliness of statistics (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes 11/20/2020 Page 4 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Madagascar-Statistical Capacity Building (P160071) Date 28-Mar-2017 31-Mar-2020 31-Mar-2020 28-Mar-2022 Overall Comments IR There was improvement in the number of census, welfare, employment, and business surveys implemented. In addition to the population and housing census, INSTAT have implemented two household high frequency surveys on the impact of Covid-19 and one firm high frequency surveys on the impact of Covid-19. There was also improvement in the number of staff who have achieved improvements in skill/knowledge compared to a pre-training baseline, reaching 182 by October 2020. Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P160071 IDA-59960 Effective USD 30.00 30.00 0.00 32.04 0.00 100% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P160071 IDA-59960 Effective 29-Mar-2017 20-Apr-2017 31-Aug-2017 31-Mar-2022 31-Mar-2022 Cumulative Disbursements 11/20/2020 Page 5 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Madagascar-Statistical Capacity Building (P160071) PBC Disbursement Achievement Disbursed amount in Disbursement % PBC ID PBC Type Description Coc PBC Amount Status Coc for PBC Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 11/20/2020 Page 6 of 6