78739 PAPER NO. 91 CLIMATE CHANGE SERIES Climate Change and Agriculture A Review of Impacts and Adaptations Pradeep Kurukulasuriya Shane Rosenthal June 2003 Published jointly with the Agruiculture and Rural Development Department THE WORLD BANK ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT Climate Change and Agriculture A Review of Impacts and Adaptations Pradeep Kurukulasuriya Shane Rosenthal1 June 2003 Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. The use and citation of this paper should take this into account. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank. Copies are available from the Environment Department, The World Bank by calling 202-473-3641. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. Manufactured in the United States of America First printing June 2003 Pradeep Kurukulasuriya and Shane Rosenthal are doctoral students at the Yale University’s School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. We wish to thank Robert Mendelsohn (Yale University), Ariel Dinar (ARD, World Bank), and Ajay Mathur (ENV, World Bank) for helpful comments in earlier drafts. We are also grateful to Ian Noble (ENVCF, World Bank) and John Horowitz (University of Maryland) for their comments and suggestions in a review of this paper. We thank Pat Daly (World Bank) for editorial assistance and advice. Contents CONTENTS III FOREWORD V ABBREVIATIONS VII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Chapter 1 Background 3 1.1 Why is Climate Change a Concern in Agriculture? 3 1.2 Addressing Climate Concerns Through Adaptation 5 1.3 Objectives of Review 5 Chapter 2 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture 7 2.1 Mechanism for Climatic Impacts on Crops 7 2.2 Quantitative Studies on Impacts of Climate Change 9 2.2.1 Estimation Methods 9 2.2.2 Results from Agronomic and Agro-Ecological Zone Analysis Studies 11 2.3 Estimates of Impacts of Climate Change With Adaptation 18 2.3.1 Agronomic Studies 18 2.3.2 Ricardian Studies 24 Chapter 3 Adaptations to Climate Change 27 3.1 Addressing Climate Variability and Climate Change 27 3.2 Ex-Post and Ex-Ante Adaptations 29 3.3 Private versus Public Adaptations 30 Chapter 4 Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture 33 4.1 Short-Term Adaptations 33 4.1.1 Farm Responses 33 4.1.2 Temporary Migration 36 4.1.3 Insurance 38 Climate Change Series iii Indicators of Environment and Sustainable Development — Theories and Practical Experience 4.2 Long-Term Adaptations 41 4.2.1 Changing Crop Type and Location 42 4.2.2 Development of New Technologies and Modernization 44 4.2.3 Improving Water Management 45 4.2.4 Permanent Migration of Labor 48 4.3 Adaptations Irrespective of the Temporal Dimension of Climate Impacts 49 4.3.1 Investment and Accumulation of Capital 49 4.3.2 Reform of Pricing Schemes, Development of Open Markets, and other Reforms 50 4.3.3 Adoption of New Technologies 51 4.3.4 Promotion of Trade 52 4.3.5 Extension Services 52 4.3.6 Diversification of Income-Earning and Employment Opportunities 53 4.3.7 Dissemination of Climate Data 54 4.3.8 Institutional Planning and Implementation 54 Chapter 5 Matrix of Adaptations 59 Chapter 6 Conclusions and the Way Forward 67 NOTES 71 REFERENCES 77 iv Environment Department Papers Foreword Climate change is widely agreed to be already a that we assess adaptation mechanisms to reduce reality, and its adverse impacts on the these vulnerabilities. Strategies to cope with vulnerability of poor communities are current climate variability provide a good superimposed on existing vulnerabilities. starting point for addressing adaptation needs in Climate change will further reduce access to the context of poverty reduction. Learning from drinking water, negatively affect the health of experience can help prevent the underachieve- poor people, and will pose a real threat to food ment of sustainable development efforts, as well security in many countries in Africa, Asia and as avoid maladaptation. Latin America. Consequently, the World Bank is moving towards mainstreaming climate risk in As a first step in this direction, the Environment all its work, and integrating climate-change Department and the Agriculture & Rural adaptation, where appropriate, in projects, Development Department asked Pradeep strategies and policies. We believe this is Kurukulasuriya and Shane Rosenthal, both necessary to ensure the effectiveness of our doctoral students at Yale University, to review investments in poverty eradication and the impacts of climate on agriculture, and the sustainable development. adaptation mechanisms that farmers and countries have used to cope with these impacts. Agricultural outputs, as well as the livelihoods of We are pleased to present their review as a joint people who depend on it, are particularly working paper of the two Departments. vulnerable to climate change, and it is important Kristalina I. Georgieva Kevin M. Cleaver Director Director Environment Department Agriculture & Rural Development Department Climate Change Series v Abbreviations AET Actual evapotranspiration ACRU Agrohydrological model CCCM Climate and Carbon Cycle Modeling FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GDP Gross domestic product GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (United States) GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies (United States) OSU Oregon State University (United States) PET Potential evapotranspiration UKMO United Kingdom Meteorological Office (United Kingdom) USDA United States Department of Agriculture Climate Change Series vii Executive Summary The vulnerability of the agricultural sector to variability (including extreme events) at the both climate change and variability is well national and local levels is regarded as a established in the literature. The general pragmatic strategy to strengthen capacity to consensus is that changes in temperature and lessen the magnitude of impacts that are already precipitation will result in changes in land and occurring, could increase gradually (or water regimes that will subsequently affect suddenly), and may be irreversible. agricultural productivity. Research has also shown that specifically in tropical regions, with Consequently, several key themes have emerged many of the poorest countries, impacts on from the current literature on adaptations to agricultural productivity are expected to be climate change. First, given the range of current particularly harmful. The vulnerability of these vulnerability and diversity of expected impacts, countries is also especially likely to be acute in there is no single recommended formula for light of technological, resource, and institutional adaptation. Second, responsibility for constraints. Although estimates suggest that adaptations will be in the hands of private global food production is likely to be robust, individuals as well as government. Third, the experts predict tropical regions will see both a temporal dimension of policy responses is likely reduction in agricultural yields and a rise in to have a significant role in the effectiveness of poverty levels as livelihood opportunities for facilitating adaptation to climate change. One set many engaged in the agricultural sector become of measures will decrease the short-term increasingly susceptible to expected climate vulnerabilities of the agricultural sector through pressures. adaptations to weather effects. These measures will therefore address concerns with climate While contemporary policy dialogue has focused variability. However, more often than not on mitigating emissions that induce climate policies aimed at reducing vulnerability to short change, there has been relatively limited term climate variation will not reduce discussion of policies that can address climate vulnerability to long term climate change. impacts. First, climate variability is already a Another set of strategies that reduce problem both in developed and developing vulnerability to climate change will thus be countries. Second, even moderate climate necessary. This second set of adaptation change provides added impetus to promoting measures include options such as improving local adaptation options concurrently with the water management practices, modernization by pursuit of global efforts on mitigation strategies. adopting and utilizing new technologies, and That is, adaptation to climate change and changing crop types and location, including Climate Change Series 1 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations migrating permanently away from the developing countries to reflect expected changes agricultural sector. Finally, a third set of in the future from climate change. The focus of adaptation options need to incorporate policymakers should thus be on formulating and economic, institutional, political, and social implementing policies that promote better policy changes that promote sustainable adaptation. In particular, incentives that development. The pursuit of such “no-regrets� promote adaptation need to be formulated and options through an interdisciplinary approach is incorporated into project designs. It is also clear fundamental to strengthening local capacity to that policymakers should promote dynamic adapt. adaptation, as it is unlikely that there will be one solution for all time. Finally, incentives that In conclusion, it is clear that in the short run, promote adaptation policies should be adaptation options in the agricultural sector incorporated into poverty reduction and other need to reflect what is currently known about sustainable development policies that in turn climate conditions. In contrast, in the long term will also enhance the resiliency of the it is necessary for national sectoral policy and agricultural sector. assistance provided by international agencies to 2 Environment Department Papers 1 Background 1.1 Why is Climate Change a Concern in adverse; others, favorable. At times, impacts will Agriculture? be slow to unfold, enabling local farmers and national governments time to respond. The Numerous factors shape and drive the distribution of impacts will vary as both the agricultural sector. Market fluctuations, changes ability to respond to impacts and resources with in domestic and international agricultural which to do so vary across nations. In other policies (such as the form and extent of subsidies, cases, impacts will be unexpected, and incentives, tariffs, credit facilities, and appropriate responses may not easily be known insurance), management practices, terms of or implemented in advance. trade, the type and availability of technology and extension, land-use regulations and biophysical Impacts of climate variability and change on the characteristics (availability of water resources, agricultural sector are projected to steadily soil quality, carrying capacity, and pests and manifest directly from changes in land and diseases) are among the set of primary water regimes, the likely primary conduits of influences. Given its inherent link to natural change. Changes in the frequency and intensity resources, agricultural production is also at the of droughts, flooding, and storm damage are mercy of uncertainties driven by climate expected. Climate change is expected to result in variation, including extreme events such as long-term water and other resource shortages, flooding and drought. worsening soil conditions, drought and desertification, disease and pest outbreaks on Over the last decade or so, climate change (in crops and livestock, sea-level rise, and so on. terms of long-term changes in mean temperature Vulnerable areas are expected to experience or precipitation normals, as well as an increased losses in agricultural productivity, primarily due frequency of extreme climate effects) has to reductions in crop yields (Rosenzweig and gradually been recognized as an additional others 2002). Increasing use of marginal land for factor which, with other conventional pressures, agriculture (especially among smallholder will have a significant weight on the form, scale, farms) is anticipated as the availability and and spatial and temporal impact on agricultural productivity potential of land begin to decline.2 productivity. The general consensus to emerge In contrast, climate change is also expected to from the literature is that in the absence of result in some beneficial effects, particularly in adequate response strategies to long-term temperate regions (Mendelsohn and others climate change as well as to climate variability, 1999). The lengthening of growing seasons, diverse and region-specific impacts will become carbon fertilization effects, and improved more apparent. Some impacts are expected to be Climate Change Series 3 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations conditions for crop growth are forecast to from the tropics toward the temperate and polar stimulate gains in agricultural productivity in regions (IPCC 2001). Early estimates suggest 4– high-latitude regions, such as in northern China 24 percent losses in production in the developed and many parts of northern America and countries, and 14–16 percent losses in developing Europe. countries (IPCC 1996). Dryland areas (where rainy seasons are already short and significant Consequently, the likely impacts of climate water shortages are currently the norm) are change on the agricultural sector have prompted likely to be among the most vulnerable. Declines concern over the magnitude of future global food in aggregate production are anticipated in most production (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate of Africa and South and East Asia (for example, Change (IPCC) 1996; Bindi and Olesen 2000). Western India, Bangladesh, and Thailand), with Early global estimates predict (without increments in countries such as Indonesia, consideration of CO2 fertilization effects or Malaysia, Taiwan, and parts of India and China. adaptation) a 20–30 percent reduction in grain Murdiyarso (2000) highlights that rice production (Darwin and others 1995).3 Based on production in Asia may decline by 3.8 percent of agronomic research in low latitude countries, production levels of 2000 (estimated at 430 Reilly and others (1994, 1996) approximate metric tons) under likely future climate regimes.5 global welfare changes in the agricultural sector (without adaptations) between losses of US$61.2 The concern with climate change is heightened billion and gains of US$0.1 billion. This is in given the linkage of the agricultural sector to contrast to losses of US$37 billion to gains of poverty. In particular, it is anticipated that US$70 billion with appropriate adaptations in adverse impacts on the agricultural sector will place. More recently, studies that reflect CO2 exacerbate the incidence of rural poverty. fertilization impacts and adaptation suggest that Impacts on poverty are likely to be especially global agricultural supply is likely to be robust in severe in developing countries where the the face of moderate warming. Under the most agricultural sector is an important source of severe scenarios of climate change, however, livelihood for a majority of the rural population. significant losses are expected worldwide (see In Africa, estimates indicate that nearly 60–70 also studies by Fischer and others (1993, 1996; percent of the population is dependent on the see also Rosenzweig and others 1993; agricultural sector for employment, and the Rosenzweig and Parry 1994); Darwin and others sector contributes on average nearly 34 percent (1995, 1996); Tsigas and others (1996); Adams to gross domestic product (GDP) per country.6 In and Hurd 1999; Reilly 1999; Rosenzweig 2000). the West African Sahel alone, more than 80 percent of the population is involved in Given the range of warming predicted by the agriculture and stock-farming in rural areas, and scientific community, regional and local the two sectors contribute approximately 35 variation in impacts on the agricultural percent of the countries’ GDPs (Mohamed and production is likely to be high. However, a others 2002). With lower technological and rapidly emerging consensus is that the worst capital stocks, the agricultural sector in such impacts will be in tropical regions (Rosenzweig poorer developing countries is unlikely to and others 1993; Mendelsohn 2000; IPCC 2001; withstand the additional pressures imposed by Sachs 20034 As a result, experts predict a spatial climate change without a concerted response shift of crops and agricultural practices away strategy (Crosson 1997). According to some 4 Environment Department Papers Background estimates, the overall economic impact of some countries (especially the developing climate change on the agricultural sector could countries and, particularly, the poorest segments be up to 10 percent of GDP (Hernes and others of society within countries), will not be able to 1995; IPCC 2001). avoid the impacts of climate change has added impetus to promoting adaptation (Burton 2001). As research on the spatial variation in climate In addition, under-preparedness to increased change and its subsequent impacts mounts, it is frequency or lengthening of periods of drought, becoming increasingly apparent that both across higher temperatures, and climate variability (for and within regions vulnerability to climate example, extreme events) can be prohibitively impacts will be diverse. Another expectation is costly and can severely undermine expensive the high cost of maladaptation, where policies to long-term investments. address climate change are not fully implemented or are poorly designed. In Numerous studies have consequently developing countries, the expansion of human emphasized the need to pursue adaptation in settlements to marginal land and hazardous addition to mitigation strategies.7 The areas such as deltas and low-lying coastlines and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change other climate-sensitive areas has no doubt (IPCC) notes that adaptability through changes contributed to worsening the expected problems in “processes, practices or structures� is a crucial (Burton 2001). In short, it is apparent that some element in reducing potential adverse impacts or communities will be better equipped and enhancing beneficial impacts of climate change positioned to deal with the many possible (IPCC 2001). Adaptation is regarded as a vital outcomes associated with sudden or gradual component of climate change impacts and climate scenarios. vulnerability assessment (Skinner and others 2001). In the context of development, Burton 1.2 Addressing Climate Concerns (1996) asserts that a practical response strategy Through Adaptation is to improve adaptation to climate variability, In order to address the expected pressures on the including extreme events.8 Smith (1997) agricultural as well as other economic sectors, maintains that adaptation is necessary to avoid policymakers have thus far largely focused on impacts that can otherwise occur gradually and addressing climate change through mitigation of may be irreversible. That is, increasing the human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases robustness of infrastructure designs and and sequestration of carbon. However, it is investments can reap immediate benefits becoming widely accepted that mitigation alone through improved resilience to climate is unlikely to be sufficient as a climate policy variability and extreme atmospheric events. (Pielke 1998). As understanding improves of the Adaptation is viewed as a crucial step to workings of ecosystems and socioeconomic strengthen local capacity to deal with forecasted systems’ function and the extent of their likely and unexpected climatic conditions (Smith and resilience to climatic stimuli, there is an intensive others 1996; Smit and others 1999). push for contemporary policy dialogue to 1.3 Objectives of Review complement mitigation initiatives with adaptation policies as another key defense Given the growing urgency of adaptation of against climate change. The recognition that agriculture to climate change, numerous issues Climate Change Series 5 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations need to be addressed. For one, what is the range climate will occur over the coming decades9 of adaptation options based on experiences to (IPCC 1996, 2001). Given the long lifetime of climate issues in agriculture? Moreover, why has atmospheric greenhouse gases, the stock of these adaptation been successful in some instances and gases in the atmosphere will continue to not in others? That is, what conditions determine accumulate for some time into the future, the ability to adapt and successfully cope with regardless of the rate at which mitigation the challenges that climate change will bring to policies at the international level are successful bear? What underlying socioeconomic and (IPCC 1996). Consequently, some level of institutional conditions are necessary to facilitate human-induced climate change is inevitable the adoption of various measures that scientific even if uncertainty remains over the extent to (field) and natural experiments have shown can which (and where, specifically,) impacts will be cushion the adverse impacts of climate change? most acutely felt. This review contends that experiences in The review is organized in the following way: adaptation to current climate across the world’s Section 2 discusses some of the primary numerous agro-ecological zones hold much literature on the impacts of climate change on scope for providing crucial insights on the agriculture in various parts of the world. various options for dealing with future climate Following a brief overview of the mechanism of change scenarios. Consequently, in examining climate change impacts on agriculture, results of the above issues, a key objective of the review is impact studies on agriculture and forestry using to provide an overview of the typology of different estimation techniques (agronomic and primary measures undertaken at the macro and economic) are presented. Studies incorporating micro level to adapt to climate change impacts in adaptation and those that are not are agriculture. The discussion that follows is aimed highlighted. Section 3 focuses on the scope and at improving understanding of the underlying varieties of adaptation strategies. Private versus processes and conditions necessary for public adaptation as well as the temporal successfully identifying and designing dimension of adaptations is discussed. Section 4 appropriate adaptive measures for dealing with examines short- and long-run adaptations in future climate change impacts in the agricultural greater detail. In particular, an attempt is made sector and their implementation in developing to develop a typology of the main response countries. The review focuses predominantly on strategies that are highlighted in the literature. the agricultural sector, although some examples Moreover, constraints that may prevent such from other sectors such as forestry and water are adaptations to be successfully implemented are also highlighted. Both micro and macro level discussed. Section 5 presents a summary matrix policy responses to climate change impacts are of the suite of response strategies based on examined. materials in section 4, in addition to outlining necessary support policies and other As a point of departure, this review begins with prerequisites. Section 6 concludes and highlights the assumption that human-induced changes in key themes to emerge from the review. 6 Environment Department Papers Impacts of Climate 2 Change on Agriculture An extensive literature has developed on the First, changes in temperature and precipitation will impacts of climate change on agriculture, with alter the distribution of agro-ecological zones. the earliest focusing primarily on the Changes in soil moisture and content and the vulnerability of the sector. The general message timing and length of growing seasons12 will be to emerge from this literature is that the degree affected in various ways in different parts of the of vulnerability of the agricultural sector to world. Rosenzweig and Hillel (1995) state that in climate change is contingent on a wide range of middle and higher latitudes, higher temperatures local environmental and management factors. will lengthen growing seasons and expand crop- Key features include local biological conditions such as soil content, type of crop that is grown, producing areas pole-ward, thus benefiting extent of knowledge and awareness of expected countries in these regions. While less fertile soils changes in climate, type and objectives of the in higher latitudes will temper some of the gains management regimes prevalent in agriculture of an extended growing season, it is not clear to (that is, maximizing output or revenues, and so what additional extent soils will be a real on), the extent of support from government and constraint given that numerous other factors other external (private) agencies, and the ability (such as changes in precipitation levels, fertilizer of key stakeholders (at the national, local, and use, irrigation availability, and so on) will also household level) to undertake the necessary have a significant influence on the final outcome. remedial steps to address climate concerns, to In contrast, in lower latitudes, it is expected that name a few. In a sense, the increased uncertainty higher temperatures will adversely affect of climate effects represents an additional growing conditions,13 especially in areas where problem that farmers have to address. For example, poor soil quality, financial constraints, temperatures are close to or at the optimal level and lack of access to markets can constrain for crop growth to begin with. Irrigation agricultural productivity to begin with, availability and demand will also be affected by regardless of climate effects. Climate change thus both changes in temperature and precipitation. represents an additional burden that for farmers Reduction in precipitation is likely to intensify translates into production risks associated with further aquifer exploitation for agriculture and crop yields, probabilities of extreme events, place additional burdens on other surface and timing of field operations, and timing of groundwater resources from non-agricultural investments in new technologies.10 use (such as industrial and municipal needs). An increase of potential evapotranspiration is likely 2.1 Mechanism for Climatic Impacts on Crops to intensify drought stress, especially in the semiarid tropics and subtropics (Hillel and Hulme (1996) describes four ways in which Rosenzweig 1989). climate would have a physical effect on crops.11 Climate Change Series 7 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations For example, temperatures in Africa are dioxide concentrations would lead to yield expected to rise at less than the global average, improvements ranging from 10–30 percent. and will have varying impacts depending upon Ringius and others (1996) suggest that water use the underlying type of agro-ecological zone. That efficiency will increase in the same range. is, impacts will depend on initial temperatures. However, while higher atmospheric Fischer and Velthuizen (1996) and Downing concentrations of CO2 will, by reducing (1992) explore the impact of climate change on evapotranspiration, improve water use Kenya, and find that higher temperatures would efficiency of crops and increase the rate of have a positive impact in highland areas. photosynthesis (Darwin 2001), the net result may Downing (1992), relying on a model of land use be moderated by costly pest and weed to estimate changes in availability of land infestations (Rosenzweig and Hillel 1995).15 suitable for cropping, has shown that in highland areas of western Kenya, there is likely to be a 67 At the same time, there is a debate on whether percent increase in “high potential� land in expected increments in productivity due to CO2 response to a 2.5° C rise in average temperature. have been overestimated. Horowitz16 argues In contrast, rising ambient temperatures may that while increases in global temperature occur have a detrimental effect in many lowland areas, with a lengthy lag (after the increased particularly those that are semiarid. For some concentration of greenhouse gases), fertilization crops, plant metabolism begins to break down should happen virtually instantaneously. Thus, above 40°C, and a reduction in growing periods given the increase in CO2 concentration that has due to accelerated growth can reduce the yields occurred, Horowitz claims that the fertilization (Hulme, 1996). effects in crop yields should already be apparent. Of course, carbon fertilization effects may be Second, carbon dioxide effects are expected to responsible for some of the rapid increases in have a positive impact due to, for example, production observed throughout the world. greater water use efficiency and higher rate of photosynthesis. Numerous publications dealing Several papers have examined effects of carbon with the agronomic effects of climate change fertilization in forests. In natural forests, there is offer the following explanation concerning reason to believe that carbon fertilization effects carbon dioxide concentrations, which are may be limited by shortages in other nutrients expected to rise by as much as 57 percent by 2050 (citation). Clearly this is less of a problem with (Ringius and others 1996; Hulme 1996). Rising agriculture where farmers regularly supplement carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere nutrients through fertilizers. Berry and are important to agriculture because they Roderick (2002) examine the relationship increase the rate of photosynthesis and water use between the observed 20 percent increase in CO2 efficiency. These effects are strongest for plants over the last two hundred years and land-use with the C3 photosynthetic pathway,14 which effects on Australian vegetation and conclude include crops such as wheat, rice, and soybean. that the seasonally green leaves of annual and Carbon dioxide enrichment is also positive— ephemeral herbaceous plants vegetation cover is though not by as much— for C4 plants such as roughly the same over this period. In addition, maize, millet, and sorghum, and many grasses their results highlighted that the increase in (and thus weeds). IPCC (1996) and Reilly et evergreen cover is likely to have been caused by al.(1996) estimate that a doubling of carbon the increase in CO2 concentrations, but it alone is 8 Environment Department Papers Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture unlikely to be the sole cause of the change. In livestock waste and nutrients into water bodies. another paper, Lutze and others (1999) report While current climate forecasts are not clear that crop growth under elevated CO2 led to about how extreme events and variability will spring frost damage in field-grown seedlings of change across agro-climatic zones, it is expected snow gum (Eucalyptus pauciflora Sieb, ex Spreng), that adjustment costs are likely to be higher with a usually frost-tolerant eucalyptus. Their result greater rates of change (Adams and others 1999). suggests that an increase in frost susceptibility One area that has received substantial attention may lower likely gains in productivity from CO2 in recent years is El Niño/Southern oscillation fertilization. This result clearly will be less (ENSO). ENSO has been responsible for important as frost risk is reduced from higher considerable variation in both temperature and temperatures. precipitation. Of particular concern are areas such as Southern Africa where these effects are Third, water availability (or runoff) is a critical important.17 factor in determining the impact of climate change in many places, particularly in Africa. A The expected variability of temperature, number of studies suggest that precipitation and precipitation, atmospheric carbon content, and the length of the growing season are critical in extreme events are forecast to have profound determining whether climate change positively effects on plant growth and yields, crops, soils, or negatively affects agriculture (Hulme, 1996; insects, weeds, diseases, livestock, and water Fischer, 1996; Strzepek and Smith 1995; availability in Africa (Adams and others 1998; Sivakumar 1992). However, as outlined earlier, see also IPCC (1996) for a wide-ranging constraints abound on the scientific ability to overview of the likely impacts on the predict trends in rainfall with much certainty. agricultural sector). Burton (2001) suggests that For other parts of the world too, there is less expected impacts in dryland areas include confidence about precipitation than other reduction in rainfall, rise in temperature, and climatic changes. A lack of comprehensive increased rainfall variability. Some arid areas regional and sub-regional precipitation models such as Mauritania, Mali, and Niger may even limit researchers’ ability to reach firm get higher levels of rainfall. Highland areas are conclusions about related impacts on agriculture. also expected to benefit, since the growing season would be lengthened and the incidence of frost Fourth, agricultural losses can result from diminished. In contrast, other, more subhumid climatic variability and the increased frequency zones, such as Burkino Faso, Mali and Ghana are of extreme events such as droughts and floods or expected to suffer from reductions in rainfall. changes in precipitation and temperature variance. As outlined in Rosenzweig and Hillel 2.2 Quantitative Studies on Impacts of (1995), a higher frequency of droughts is likely to Climate Change increase pressure on water supplies for 2.2.1 Estimation Methods numerous reasons ranging from plant The quantitative estimates on impacts of climate transpiration to allocation. In contrast, increases change have been based predominantly on in rainfall intensity in other regions can lead to experimental and cross-sectional studies. The higher rates of soil erosion, leaching of experimental approach includes agro-economic agricultural chemicals, and runoff that carries simulation models, as applied in early studies by Climate Change Series 9 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations Parry and others (1988), Adams and others Dinar and Beach (1998) cast doubt on the (1989). The method is similar to a carefully accuracy of predictions made by agro-economic controlled experiment where climate levels or models given that price effects cannot be other variables of interest (such as CO2) are satisfactorily included in domestic-level models. adjusted (rather than the more likely transient They assert that since agricultural markets are climate scenarios driven by gradual increments characteristically worldwide, agricultural prices in greenhouse gas forcing—see Reilly 2003), and can only be reliably predicted using global impacts on crop productivity are estimated. A models. Despite the efforts made by agro- very similar approach is the agro-ecological zone economic models employed in studies by analysis, a technique where predicted yields, Rosenzweig and Parry (1994), Darwin and others based on the initial assignment of crops to (1994) and Reilly and others (1994), which Dinar specific agro-ecological zones, are utilized in and Beach (1998) suggest represent some of the crop simulation models that track the changes best attempts to measure global prices, accurate that take place in the agro-ecological zones and measurement of climate-induced supply changes crops as climate changes. In turn, the results are remains problematic. The magnitude of the incorporated in economic and general errors is compounded in light of data limitations circulation models (GCM) to predict the scale in the case of developing countries. and range of impacts. In addition, while agro-ecological zone analysis Mendelsohn and others (1994) and Mendelsohn makes use of established data on the distribution and Dinar (1999) outline several criticisms of the of zones in developing countries, there are some agronomic (or production function) approach. drawbacks. Mendelsohn and Dinar (1999) point One serious criticism is that such models tend to out that the large temperature categories overestimate damages. The underlying reflected in the climate zones make it difficult to constraint is that yield estimates from controlled capture subtle changes within a zone. That is, a experiments (for effects of temperature, subtle shift between climatic zones is likely to precipitation, and carbon dioxide) that, by result in a dramatic change in crop production in definition, do not incorporate adaptations in the contrast to no effect when there are changes form of modified farming methods, remained at within a zone. In addition, they also point out the heart of model specification.18.That is, that in early models (as applied in studies by estimation models are based on the unrealistic Darwin and others 1995), the calibration of price assumption that farmers would not adapt, or effects is crude and the effects of soils and take into account, the effects of government climate have to be analyzed separately. interventions to offset climate impacts.19 Moreover, given the high cost of controlled In contrast, recent studies have begun to focus on experimentation, estimates of impacts were efficient adaptation. One way this has been done limited primarily to grains ( an exception being in economic research is through the application Adams and others 1998)and to a few locations of the Ricardian approach, which attempts to around the world (Mendelsohn 2000). Others capture the influence of economic, climatic, and also argue that crop models have focused on environmental factors on farm income or land agricultural productivity in marginal lands in values (Mendelsohn, Nordhaus, and Shaw 1994). tropical climates20 (Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994; This approach is preferred to the traditional Reilly and others 1996). estimation methods, given that instead of ad hoc 10 Environment Department Papers Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture adjustments of parameters that are characteristic biased results when land within locations (such of the traditional approach, the Ricardian as at the district or county level) is technique automatically incorporates efficient heterogeneous and land owners behave adaptations by farmers to climate change. That optimally. Consequently, the conditions under is, so long as the costs and benefits of agricultural which such a bias will occur are underlined, and production21 have a market value, they will be an empirical model that controls for it is included in the analysis. suggested. Based on results from its application to data from Brazil, Timmins highlights the The primary criticism of the Ricardian approach importance of the bias and shows (among other is its failure to fully control the impact of things) that the agricultural implications of important variables that could also explain the global climate change may not be as favorable as variation in farm incomes. Incomplete the application of the traditional Ricardian specification can result in an underestimation of models suggested. damages and overestimation of benefits. The assumption of constant prices is another While research has provided important drawback (Cline, 1996). With regard to the latter, information on the likely impacts of climate Mendelsohn and others (1994) agree that the change, there is an ongoing debate on the inclusion of price effects is problematic and the appropriateness of various types of models that Ricardian approach is weaker for it. However, are used to estimate impacts. Smit and Pilifosova this weakness also applies to all agronomic (2001) emphasize, as others such as Tol and models which are confronted with the same others, (1998) have also done, that many of the difficulty of predicting domestic price changes assumptions of impact models may not match when changes in agricultural prices due to with actual behavior. Yohe and others (1996) climate change are determined at the global and Yohe and Neumann (1997) make the level. Although the Ricardian approach does not distinction between rational behavior under address this problem, Mendelsohn and others perfect information and rational behavior under (1994) contend that the bias is less than 7 uncertainty. It is argued that efficient adaptation percent. techniques are only theoretically possible and not without uncertainty, as individuals may not Furthermore, Quiggin and Horowitz (1999) necessarily behave rationally nor be willing to argue that the Ricardian approach assumes that act with imperfect information. adjustment is costless, which will also bias the final outcome. The authors state that the primary costs of climate change will be costs of 2.2.2 Results from Agronomic and Agro- adjustment and that both natural capital and Ecological Zone Analysis Studies long-lived physical capital stocks will be reduced (a) Agriculture in value as a result of climate change. The In one of the earliest agronomic studies, magnitude of loss will depend on the variability Newman (1980) undertook a crop production and stochasticity of climate change. study of the United States and concludes that the U.S. cornbelt would shift northeast for every 1º C More recently, Timmins (2001) concludes that rise in temperature. Similarly, Rosenzweig (1985) the traditional Ricardian approach may yield finds that climate change would increase winter Climate Change Series 11 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations wheat production in Canada, and regional shifts simulation study, Rao and Sinha (1994) estimate in wheat cultivars in the United States. Eswaran that wheat yields could decrease by 28–68 and Van den Berg (1993) use geographic percent. Similarly, Aggarawal and Sinha (1993) information systems (GIS) to examine shifts in show that in North India, a 1o C rise in mean crop production and find that higher latitude temperature would have no significant effect on regions are likely to benefit as areas become more wheat yields, while a 2oC increase would reduce appropriate for agricultural production through yields in most places. climate change. Parry and others, (1988), while not taking into account CO2 effects or A number of publications (Downing, 1992; adaptation, also conclude, based on evidence Rosenzweig and others 1995; and Desanker, from a number of agricultural case studies, that 2002) focus on the “vulnerability� of African warmer temperature in high-latitude countries countries to climate-induced reductions in will by the lengthening of the growing season agricultural production, and on the impact on increase crop production. Higher individual farmers. Downing (1992) examines evapotranspiration, however, is found to lead to the impact of climate change on food security in adverse impacts on crop yields. three countries in Africa (Zimbabwe, Kenya, and Senegal). A variety of methods are employed, Early studies from developing countries also and careful attention is given to the definition of predominantly relied on agronomic models with vulnerability. Data on numerous non-climatic limited adaptation. Recent research on climate factors such as the socioeconomic setting, trade impacts on Indian agriculture by Tata Energy issues, institutional structures, and geography Research Institute (TERI) highlights results from are drawn on to examine “current vulnerability, some studies undertaken in India.22 For example, risk of present and future climatic variations and in one of the earliest studies, Seshu and Cady responses to reduce present vulnerability and (1984) estimate a decrease in rice yield in India improve resiliency to future risks.� at the rate of 0.71 ton per hectare given an increase in minimum temperature from 18o C to Hulme and others (1999) examine actual and 19o C. The authors also associate a decrease of predicted continent-wide changes in 0.41 ton per hectare with a temperature increase temperature and rainfall in Africa during 1900– from 22o C to 23o C. Similarly, Sinha and 2100, drawing on data related to diurnal Swaminathan (1991) find that a 2o C increase in temperature range and rainfall variability. Using mean air temperature could decrease rice yield emissions scenarios prepared for IPCC’s Third by about 0.75 ton per hectare in the high-yield Assessment Report and other models, the study areas and by about 0.06 ton per hectare in the presents four new scenarios, or “futures� of low-yield coastal regions. Further, a 0.5o C regional temperature, rainfall, carbon dioxide increase in winter temperature would reduce concentrations, and sea-level changes. The wheat crop duration by seven days and reduce results of the scenarios are consistent with the yield by 0.45 ton per hectare. In particular, the IPCC conclusion, indicating that warming will increase in winter temperature is estimated to continue and in most cases will accelerate. While account for a 10 percent reduction in wheat the authors assert that in 100 years the continent production in the high-yield states of Punjab, could be 2–6oC warmer on average, they are less Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. In a crop confident about future changes in rainfall due to 12 Environment Department Papers Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture two primary reasons. Firstly, ENSO-type climate staple crop in Niger. He finds that previous variability, a key determinant of rainfall studies on the implications of declining rainfall variability in Africa, has not been represented for agriculture in western Africa (which used satisfactorily in most global climate change monthly data) were too arbitrary an interval as a models. In addition, the failure of GCMs to realistic index of crop responses. Using data on account for the dynamic land cover-atmosphere daily precipitation from 21 stations from the interactions and dust and biomass aerosols, Niger rainfall database at the International important interactions in explaining climate Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid variability, including recent desertification of the Tropics (ICRISAT) Sahelian Center, the author Sahel region, reduce the confidence of estimates establishes patterns over the period 1921–1990 on future precipitation levels. and explores correlations with millet yields and aggregate production. His conclusions indicate Research on the agronomic impacts of climate that shifts in the patterns of rainfall during the change in Africa has largely focused on southern 1965––1988 period (relative to the 1945–1965 Africa. Hulme (1996) describes three models for period) reduced the growing season by 5–20 days maize that have been used for impact analysis in across various locations in Niger, making this region. The CERES-Maize site model was cropping more risky. Sivakumar notes that the used to examine sites in Zimbabwe. Research implications for agriculture are important, not reported in publications by Eid (1994), Muchena only because the absolute amount of rainfall has (1994), and Makadho (1996) is based on this decreased, but also because its timing has model. The Agrohydrological (ACRU) model changed. In particular, a decrease in the August with CERES-Maize is described in Schulze and rainfall is troubling for millet producers because others (1993) and Schulze and others (1996). The of the lack of adequate water supply during the monthly crop-climate model uses the Food and sensitive reproductive growth stage. The author Agriculture Organization (FAO) water notes that in times of drought farmers will requirements satisfaction index (WRSI) to assess sacrifice cash crops in order to save food crops, a the sensitivity of maize to moisture deficits at finding that may partially explain a decline in certain times of year. Conclusions from these groundnut production over a 10–15 year period studies appear to be consistent. In most areas of beginning in the mid-1960s. This type of climatic southern Africa, the benefits from increases in change is thought to have important carbon dioxide (higher water use efficiency, implications for sustainable agriculture, since higher rates of photosynthesis) would outweigh continuing low rainfall can result in accelerated adverse effects of lower rainfall and higher environmental degradation. A failure to temperatures. The window for planting is also intensify production has led to cropping in lengthened, which can have a positive effect. marginal lands that are more susceptible to This research is applied in a number of country- rainfall variability and wind erosion. and region-specific studies of the wider impacts of climate change, which are described in Other publications reporting on research in publications reviewed further below. Africa apply agronomic research to investigations of the wider impacts of climate Sivakumar (1992) focuses on changing rainfall change for a particular country or region. These patterns and production of Pearl millet, the main include Phillips and McIntyre (2000) on Uganda, Climate Change Series 13 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations Fischer and Velthuizen (1996) on Kenya, Schulze Makadho (1996) shows this to be a likely and others (1993) on southern Africa, and outcome for maize in Zimbabwe, with Makadho (1996) on Zimbabwe. decreasing yields of up to 17 percent in drier areas. Using climate data from four agro- According to Downing’s outlook (Downing 1992) ecologically representative stations in for Kenya in 1992, potential food production Zimbabwe, the author bases his analysis upon would increase with higher temperatures and two climate change models, the Geophysical greater rainfall. However, those in semiarid Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GDFL) and areas, particularly “vulnerable socioeconomic the Climate and Carbon Cycle Modeling Group groups,� could face serious difficulties when model (CCCM). Under both irrigated and non- their already low yields decrease further as a irrigated conditions, in some regions maize result of insufficient rainfall. Similarly, Fischer production is expected to decrease significantly and Velthuizen (1996) suggest that the overall (by approximately 11–17 percent). Increments in impact on the sector may be positive, but that temperature that shorten the crop growth results will vary by region. Kenya has a wide period, especially the “grain-filling period,� are range of agro-ecological conditions, from hot and underlined as the primary cause of the crop arid lowland areas to cool, humid highlands. reductions. Increases in concentrations of carbon dioxide are expected to have a positive effect overall, as Downing (1992) also confirms that shifts in agro- would additional rainfall, to the extent they climatic potential would affect national food occur. The authors warn, however, that if rising production and land use in Zimbabwe. With a 2o temperatures are not accompanied by increases C increase in temperature, the core agricultural in precipitation (to make up for higher rates of zone decreases by a third. The semiextensive evapotranspiration), then large decreases in farming zone is particularly sensitive to small agricultural production could result. This is a changes in climate. Farmers in this zone, already particular concern in low-lying areas of eastern vulnerable in terms of self-sufficiency and food and southern Kenya. In the highlands of the security, are expected to be further marginalized central and western parts of the country, higher due to increased risk of crop failure. A temperatures could increase production due to subsequent report by the Government of larger areas becoming suitable for cropping. Zimbabwe,23 follows closely the analysis and Furthermore, due to higher cropping intensities results found in Downing (1992) and Hulme in these places, higher production would more (1996).24 than outweigh any effects of lower moisture. In some areas, reduced moisture could diminish the The focus of the analysis for Senegal is on potential impact of pests and disease. The population growth in the face of climate change. authors conclude that “the national level food A carrying-capacity model is applied that productivity potential of Kenya may well compares consumption requirements with food increase with higher levels of atmospheric production. The findings for 1990 suggest that of carbon dioxide and climate-change-induced the country’s 93 arrondissements (that is, increases in temperature, provided this is precincts), two-thirds have rural populations accompanied by some increase in precipitation exceeding their rainfed carrying capacity. While as predicted by several global circulation recognizing the limits of the model, the author models.� 14 Environment Department Papers Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture believes these results should be of concern, crop yields, crop water use, land resources, and particularly if climate change were to increase global agricultural markets affect Egyptian the number of areas that are not food self- agriculture.26 The authors point out the sufficient. uniqueness of the agricultural sector in Egypt, namely, that all agricultural land is irrigated The Senegalese Government’s Initial with water from the Nile River. Although Communication on Climate Change Egypt’s population is not growing quickly as (Government of the Republic of Senegal, 1997) compared with many other developing provides a detailed account of the same research countries, an expected doubling by 2060 requires reported in Downing (1992). The report devotes efforts to increase agricultural production. The significant attention to the implications of authors emphasize the country’s high climate change for food security, and emphasizes dependence on natural resources make it the pressure that a 2.7 percent per year especially vulnerable to climate change.27 population growth rate places on the economy in light of the climate change that has taken place The paper confirms previous suspicions that since 1966 – mainly in the form of much-reduced Egypt is vulnerable to global warming, rainfall.25 fluctuations in agricultural markets (local and global), and changes in agriculture and water Hulme (1996) suggests that the droughts of and land resources. Specific conclusions that are 1984/85 and 1991/92 in southern Africa showed made include: (i) population and economic how vulnerable the southern Africa region is to growth scenarios are significant factors; (ii) a climate and the impact that changes can have on country adaptation to climate change is food security and water resources. Both droughts important; (iii) water resources availability and had a significant impact on maize production in crop water use are important to consider in the southern Africa region. Problems of assessing vulnerability; (iv) water is a limiting desertification are attributed more to human factor; (v) economic, trade and social policies impacts, particularly demographic change. greatly affect the potential integrated impacts of Moreover, analyses of vulnerability center on climate change. Finally, emphasis is placed on national food balances, food production, and the value of an integrated, economy-wide dependence on food imports and food aid. approach to assessing impacts and vulnerability. Hulme (1996) also constructs an index of vulnerability based on these variables and GNP, Benson and Clay (1998) explore the impact of and rates eight countries. According to the droughts on national economies in southern model, South Africa is the least vulnerable and Africa. Using data from countries including Angola is most vulnerable. Downing (1992) Namibia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique, characterizes vulnerability as (a) referring to a Malawi, Lesotho, and Botswana, they maintain consequence as opposed to a cause, (b) implying that industrial economies may be more an adverse consequence, and (c) a “relative vulnerable to such shocks than the developing term� rather than an absolute measurement of countries of Africa. While developing economies deprivation. would appear to be more vulnerable because of their dependence on agriculture, “weak inter- Yates and Strzepek (1998) explore how climate- sectoral linkages, a high degree of self- induced changes in water resource availability, Climate Change Series 15 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations provisioning, relatively small non-agricultural United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) scenarios sectors, and often poor transport infrastructure� show mesic forest declining anywhere from 18 to have the effect of containing the impact of the 63 percent from current coverage, while the drought. Evidence presented in the report Oregon State University (OSU) scenario projects suggests that the relationship between the level an increase by 46 percent. The OSU model of complexity of an economy and its predicts a significant increase in precipitation vulnerability to drought take the form of an relative to evapotranspiration, showing the inverted U. sensitivity of the projections to rainfall. Results for the first three models reflect an overall (b) Forestry drying predicted for the region. A major Assessing the impact on forests is clearly a conclusion is that changes in forest cover by challenging task, as socioeconomic forces are forest type are largely determined by the critical and must be taken account of in order to relationship of actual evapotranspiration (AET) get meaningful results. Smith and others (1995) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to provide an excellent overview of research on the precipitation. The authors caution that the impact of climate change on forestry, and approach they use is somewhat static, since the include many useful references. They estimate Holdridge classification system does not take the impacts of climate change on the distribution into account temporal constraints in the of global vegetation and identify and evaluate transition from one vegetation type to another. adaptive strategies for reducing vulnerability of forested ecosystems. Results from the study of Zimbabwe are consistent with the regional analysis, in that the The Southern Africa Savanna/Woodlands Pilot UKMO, GFDL, and GISS models show an Project assessed potential impacts at a regional increase in the aridity of forests, and a and country level, looking at effects on concomitant decline in production of woody vegetation structure, woody biomass, and nature biomass. However, the OSU model, due to its’ reserves. It was conducted for the entire more optimistic predictions concerning subequatorial region, with an emphasis on the precipitation, show no change in these and other Southern African Development Cooperative measures related to the production of fuelwood. Council member nations of Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Matarira and Mwamuka (1996) report on Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. research on the impact of climate change on the Country studies analyzing the potential impacts forest resources of Zimbabwe. The authors also on fuelwood provision, surface erosion due to use the Holdridge Life Zone Classification vegetation loss, and protected areas were System and the GISS general circulation model conducted for Zimbabwe and Malawi. scenarios of global climate change to assess likely changes in forest cover by type. Under the GISS Regional impacts were predicted by coupling the scenario, almost one-fifth of the total land area is Holdridge Life Zone Classification system28 with projected to shift from subtropical thorn four major global climate change models. The woodland and subtropical dry forest to tropical Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), very dry forest. The authors conclude that this Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and likely trend is attributable to “a future decline in 16 Environment Department Papers Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture precipitation patterns and an increase in The results suggest that the impacts of future ambient temperature.� temperature increases on spatial distributions are species-dependent. The future scenario Dixon and others (1996) report on results of a favored E. grandis and the two horticultural comparative assessment of current and future crops – both cultivated for the export market – forest distribution in Cameroon and Ghana that but were unfavorable for P. patula. E. grandis, a considers the impact of human-induced land use timber species, and the two crops were likely to changes and global climate change. Using the find new suitable areas in a westward shift. same Holdridge classification system employed Avocado and pecan nut were expected to fare by Smith and others (1995) and Matarira and even better than timber species, and thus may Mwamuka (1996), the authors apply four general out-compete commercial tree species for land circulation model scenarios of climate change use. (GISS, OSU, UKMO, and GFDL). Eeley and others (1999) examine the potential The GISS, Oregon State University (OSU), and impact of climate change on forest distribution UKMO scenarios predict an expansion in in KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa. The coverage for evergreen and deciduous forests. authors define bioclimatic �profiles� for eight The magnitude of change differs depending on forest subtypes, and compare the distribution of the GCM used. In contrast to these results, the these with climatic and geographic variables. GFDL scenario projects a possible decrease in Five models are developed to predict the forest area. The authors point out limitations of distribution of each forest subtype on the basis of the analysis, including that the Holdridge system their bioclimatic profiles. These are used to is static and does not take into account the project changes in forest distribution under carbon dioxide enrichment impacts on water-use future climatic conditions expected with a efficiency or seasonality of precipitation. The doubling of global atmospheric carbon dioxide. analysis assumes that vegetation changes can occur as quickly as changes in climate. The Under projected climatic conditions, forest shifts inclusion of anthropocentric land-use factors in in altitude and latitude to occupy an area similar the analysis is not made clear. to its current potential distribution, but more extensive than its actual present distribution. The Schulze and Kunz (1995) map the spatial authors believe that these results show distributions of areas in South Africa, Swaziland, considerable sensitivity of these forest subtypes and Lesotho climatically suited to optimum to climate change. They believe that growth of two commercially cultivated tree anthropocentric factors have limited the species (Pinus patula and Eucalyptus grandis) and “radiation potential� of forest and its “ability to two subtropical fruit crops, avocado and pecan track environmental change.� nut. This is done for present climatic conditions and for a future climate scenario for southern In a study based on the United States, Sohngen Africa. The authors used a series of climate and Mendelsohn (1998) emphasize the role of change scenarios on temperature and information in eventual impacts by examining precipitation applicable to southern Africa that several scenarios. In one scenario, assuming were based on IPCC publications and data. foresters have information on climate impacts Climate Change Series 17 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations and the most efficient response (for example, in suggest that adaptation of input choice, terms of which trees to plant), then the results production practices, and outputs to suit the point out that if foresters are caught unaware of changing climatic conditions will reduce much the occurrence of the climate impacts in terms of of the expected damages. diebacks, net present benefits of climate change will range from $2.2 billion to $16.2 billion. In For example, Adams and others (1990) contrast, when impacts are foreseen in advance, examining simulations using atmospheric, plant enabling adaptation, the estimated benefits science, and agro-economic models outline that range from $4.9 billion and $17.3 billion. In irrigated acreage in the United States will contrast, assuming foresters do not have increase. Their results show that as climate sufficient foresight, then net present benefits change increased in severity, the contribution of range from -$4.3 billion to $11.7 billion (when U.S. production into export markets declined. caught unaware) and -$0.4 billion to $13.9 Adams and others (1993) analyze the effects of billion (when timely adaptations are made). The climatic conditions on farmer input and output results suggest, as Tol and others (1998) outline, choices. With CO2 fertilization and trade effects, whether or not the impacts are known or not the authors suggest net gains of $9–10.8 billion. appears to not matter significantly given that In another study based on the United States, timber can be salvaged after dieback and Darwin and others (1995) estimate impacts to markets shift to areas that are least vulnerable to range from -$4.8 billion to $5.8 billion. Their impacts. study also shows that climate change results in 38.9–55.3 percent of U.S. land assigned to a new 2.3 Estimates of Impacts of Climate land class—reflecting the new length of the Change With Adaptation growing season. Net changes in land classes The estimated net impacts from the above reflect increments in land allocated to crop studies provide limited information on the extent production, while in many scenarios, land in of actual vulnerability to climate effects pasture also increases by 0.7–7.4 percent. The (Mendelsohn and others 1994). Consequently, implication is that climate change will increase numerous studies have emerged that affirm that the total amount of land in agricultural adaptation has the potential to negate a production in the United States, even with 8.6– significant amount of the vulnerability 19.1 percent of cropland abandoned for associated with climate change. production. While it is acknowledged that some communities will be severely affected by climate 2.3.1 Agronomic Studies change (for example, in some scenarios, area in the Midwest/Southeast of the United States are In contrast to the early studies cited above, likely to shift to a land class with a shorter others such as Adams and others (1990, 1993, growing season), in other areas climate change 1999), Kaiser and others (1993), Easterling and will favor wheat production and reduce the others (1993) have emerged that examine farm production of other grains and livestock. The alternatives and the most efficient adaptation authors find that production of oil crops (except choices under various climatic scenarios. Studies soybeans), pulses, fibers, vegetables, and on climate impacts on agriculture incorporating temperate region fruit are likely to increase, C02 fertilization effects and adaptation in the while production of corn and roots and tubers United States and other temperate regions fall. 18 Environment Department Papers Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture Of the more recent studies, Southworth and Using a dynamic crop model, Rosenzweig and others (2002a) investigate the impacts of climate others (2002) simulate the effect of heavy change and changing climate variability due to precipitation on crop growth, and plant damage increased atmospheric CO2 concentration on from excess soil moisture in order to estimate the soybean yields in the Midwestern Great Lakes impact on U.S. corn production. The authors find Region. Based on nine representative farm that damages of approximately $3 billion per locations and six future climate scenarios, their year are likely to result from climate variability. results indicated that earlier planting dates The authors highlight that the burden of these produced soybean yield increases of up to 120 losses is likely to be borne directly by those percent above current levels in the central and impacted or transferred to private or northern areas of the study region. In the governmental insurance and disaster relief southern areas, comparatively small increases programs. (0.1 to 20 percent) and small decreases (–0.1 to – 25 percent) in yield are observed. The latter is Recent research in the United States also attributed to greater warming, and the doubled suggests that early predictions of the beneficial climate variability scenario – a more extreme impacts of climate change on agriculture in and variable climate. The authors find that CO2 temperate regions may have been overly fertilization effects (555 -parts per million) are optimistic. Lobel and Asner (2003) suggest a 17 percent decrease in both corn and soybean yields significant for soybean, increasing yields around in the United States for each degree increase in 20 percent under future climate scenarios. growing season temperature, indicating a higher Beneficial impacts are estimated in terms of observed sensitivity of agriculture to mean soybean yield increases of 40 percent over temperature than studies had previously current levels predicted. Similarly, Antle and others (2002), treating adaptation as an endogenous economic In another study, Southworth and others (2002b) response to climate change in a study of dryland examine winter wheat yields under increased grain production systems of the Northern Plains levels of CO2 concentrations in five US states region of the United States, find that climate (Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and change would induce a shift in the use of Wisconsin). These regions are selected given that production systems towards a winter wheat- they are currently considered as marginal areas fallow system and grass and away from spring in terms of wheat production, but have the wheat and barley systems. Moreover, they find potential to become a more important under a that the most adverse changes occur in the areas warmer climate. The authors find that under the with the poorest resource endowments and when same CO2 fertilization effects (555 parts per mitigating effects of CO2 fertilization and million), wheat yields increased 60 to 100 adaptation are absent. The authors conclude that percent above current yields across the central vulnerability is a function of how it is measured, and northern areas of the study region when and conditional on multifaceted interactions modeled for 2050–59 climate change scenarios. between climate change, CO2 level, adaptation, The southern states were observed to be the and economic conditions such as relative output worst affected, as expected, even with CO2 prices. fertilization effects factored in the model. The authors conclude that postponing planting to However, Reilly and others (2003) conclude that, early September was optimal. in general, the agricultural production in the Climate Change Series 19 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations United States will largely be positive. Their observed in the hot and dry Southern and Plains results, based on examining shifts in the location area of the United States. In addition, the authors of crops and trends in the variability of U.S. suggest an increase in expenditure on pesticides average crop yields of maize, wheat, and (although the additional expenditure is projected potatoes from 1866 to 1998, suggest that non- to reduce the benefits of climate change by only climatic forces account for the north- and $100 billion). At the same time, the results westward movement of crops and observed revealed a decline in the number of irrigated trends in yield variability. The authors argue that acres and in water demand for irrigation of the observed climate change over the last 100 between 5 and 35 percent. According to Reilly years had a negligible impact on the national and others, this “reflects the fact that on net, aggregate measures of crop variation and climate change was productivity enhancing and location. Instead, changes in production the definition of an increase in productivity in technology, the introduction of hybrid crops, and economic terms is that the same amount of economic factors are highlighted as likely output can be produced with fewer total inputs� explanations for the northward movement of (page 58). The implication of the latter is that, at crops. Changes in observed yield variation are least in the United States, the competition for explained by factors such as ability of farmers to water with urban demands would reduce. adopt technologies that reduce yield losses (such as irrigation, grain drying, and impact of federal Similar micro level studies based on other farm programs on production choices) and countries have also been completed. Rosenzweig concentration in areas better suited to and others (1993) use crop models to simulate production. The authors also point out that effects of warming on four different types of government policies to limit financial losses may grains in a cross-section of countries and have been an important factor in the willingness ecological regions. Depending on the forecasted of farmers to accept the risk of losses through a rate of growth in the economy, population and northern movement of production. trade, and level of adaptation and effect of projected CO2 fertilization, net climate change Estimates of economic welfare changes in the impacts were modest to negligible in temperate Reilly and others (2002) study range from $0.8 countries, but persistent in developing counties. billion to $12.2 billion.29 The gains in welfare were distributed across domestic and foreign Numerous agronomic studies have also focused consumers and domestic producers, with gains on African countries. Muchena (1994) explored to consumers accruing through lower the impact of climate change on maize commodity prices. The results also revealed production in Zimbabwe, and in simulations losses in income to U.S. producers (due to lower found that a 2o C rise in ambient temperature led prices) between $0.1 billion and $5 billion. to unacceptably low yields. A similar result was Although simulations of impacts on the observed even when the positive effects of a agricultural economy under various climatic concomitant rise in CO2 levels were included in scenarios suggested production increments the analysis. More recently, Phillips and overall, substantial variation in production was McIntyre (2000) describe results from a study of also observed. Substantial production losses in historical climate data aimed at understanding soybean, wheat, rice, and tomato yields were the effect of ENSO events on agriculture in 20 Environment Department Papers Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture Uganda. They show that sea surface variable conditions (4–8 tons per hectare), there temperatures associated with these events bring is an expansion into areas previously yielding about different changes in unimodal (one peak in below 4 tons per hectare. In areas with marginal rainfall per year) and bimodal (two peaks in rainfall for maize production, climate change rainfall per year) areas. In unimodal zones, “the has little impact on the already low yields. El Niño events are associated with a depression Overall, the results point to a general increment of the August peak in rainfall, but a lengthening in potential maize production. of the season, potentially providing an opportunity for growing later-maturing crops. In Onyeji and Fischer (1994) consider the impacts of bimodal areas, there is little change in the first climate change on Egypt. They use estimates of peak in August, but the second peak in potential changes in agricultural production November is enhanced in El Niño years and under conditions of global climate change to depressed in La Niña years.� The authors discuss provide insights on the economy-wide implications for the choice of crops and the implications for Egypt. The analysis takes timing of planting, and point out that making account of wider impacts of climate change on use of this information may depend on the world commodity trade, and the consequent existence of an effective extension service. effect on Egypt’s economy. The study examines Cropping changes may require inputs of various scenarios with and without adaptation, and types such as fertilizer. compares results with a reference scenario of no climate change. Schulze and others (1993) apply the CERES- Maize model used in a study of Zimbabwe, while Estimates of changing crop yields are centered Muchena (1994) and Makadho (1996) apply it to on maize and wheat, based on International South Africa, Lesotho, and Swaziland. The Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology analysis simulates yields and productivity under Transfer (IBSNAT) crop model simulation present and future climatic conditions, taking experiments at two sites in Egypt. The data are into account the effects of increasing carbon coupled with production data from the crop dioxide concentrations and resultant expected modelers, FAO, and the United States increases in temperature. Changes in Department of Agriculture (USDA) to get precipitation are not considered given the changes in national yield. Yield changes for crops uncertainty of predicted changes.30 The results other than wheat and maize were estimated show a large dependence on the intra-seasonal “based on their similarities to the modeled and inter-annual variation of rainfall. Results crops.� Estimates were made for three scenarios from the primary productivity model indicate under each of the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO that a decline in productivity is likely to models, with and without the effects of carbon marginal. Soil water availability is a key variable dioxide enrichment. The first scenario assumes and accounts for a fair amount of geographic no investments in adaptation; the second, only variability. Results from yield analysis show that small investments; and third, the large for nitrogen-unlimited simulations in areas investments. The projected changes in yield were yielding at least 8 tons per hectare, elevated then applied to the Basic Linked System (BLS) of temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations National Agricultural Models, a model fail to increase yields significantly. In more developed by the International Institute for Climate Change Series 21 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations applied Systems Analysis. Impacts for the period nutrient and water limitations. See also Luo and 1990–2060 were simulated. The BLS is a world Lin (1999), who review numerous studies that level general equilibrium model, with 35 focus on climate impacts on agriculture based on national and regional models; individual models Asian countries prior to 1999. The main are linked via a world market module. Among conclusion to emerge from those, besides early the results, the authors find that large estimates of impacts, is that countries in the investments in adaptation are required to make tropical zones (essentially South and Southeast significant gains in avoiding the adverse impacts Asia) are among the most vulnerable. on the economy. Changes in GDP range from – 6.2 percent (with no adaptation) to +0.7 percent More recently, Murdiyarso (2000) estimates the (with large investments in adaptation). potential impact of climate change and variability on rice production in Asia, taking into Mohamed and others (2002) examine the impact account CO2 effects, to be a decrease of 7.4 of inter-annual rainfall variability over the percent of rice potential per degree increase in previous 30 years and future climate change temperature. In addition, the author highlights scenarios on millet production in Niger. Results that constraints in land availability will lead to from the study indicate that sea surface the increasing use of marginal lands for temperature anomalies; the amount of rainfall in agriculture, thereby depressing production. The July, August, and September; the number of author also states that the risks to production rainy days, and the wind erosion factor were from climate variability and uncontrolled land- significant determinants of millet productivity. use planning are likely to pose a much larger The authors estimate that production of millet threat to sustainable food production. will be about 13 percent lower by 2025, as a consequence of reduction of the total amount of Mirza and others (2003) examine the impact of rainfall for July, August, and September, climate change on river discharges in combined with an increase in temperature. Bangladesh, including possible changes in the Similarly, Van Duivenbooden and others (2002) magnitude, extent, and depth of floods of the assess the impact of climate variability and Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) change on groundnut and cowpea production, rivers. Using a sequence of empirical models and Their estimates suggest that by 2025, production the MIKE11-GIS hydrodynamic model, together of groundnut will be between 11 and 25 percent with various climate change scenarios, indicated lower, while cowpea yield will fall maximally 30 that future changes in the peak discharge of the percent. Ganges and Meghna rivers are expected to be higher than those for the Brahmaputra River. As Rosenzweig and Parry (1994) find that a rise in a result, faster changes in inundation are temperature of 4° C could result in grain yields expected at low temperature increases than at in India reducing by 25–40 percent. Achanta higher temperature changes. Changes in land (1993), simulating irrigated yields for Pantnagar inundation will have significant implications on District (in Uttar Pradesh State in northern rice agriculture and cropping patterns in India) under doubled CO2 and increased Bangladesh. temperature, concludes that the impact on rice production would be positive in the absence of Studies from other parts of the world provide similar interesting conclusions. For example, Jin 22 Environment Department Papers Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and others (1994) find that the effect of new rice events had amounted to US$39.2 million cultivars and changing planting dates for rice (including losses of US$11 million due to floods production in southern China increased yields in and typhoons and losses of US$28.2 million from several of the sites. In another study, You (2001) drought). The authors find that the occurrences notes that switching from rice to corn has the of El Niño events are associated with periods of potential to have significant savings in water drought in the Philippines and delaying of use. You’s research estimates also suggest sowing. In addition, data suggest that rice yield savings in water in agriculture of more than 7 losses of 65 percent, 81 percent, and 52 percent billion cubic meters. In contrast, Chang (2003) (in 1973, 1983, and 1990, respectively) are a finds, through an analysis based on yield result of reductions in wet season cropping due response regression models for sixty crops, a to El Niño. significant potential impact of climate change on Taiwan’s agricultural sector. The welfare Planting dates were varied and new varieties of analysis that is undertaken suggests that both maize introduced in a study on agriculture in warming and climate variations will have a Greece by Kapetanaki and Rosenzweig (1997). significant but non-monotonic impact on crop Their results suggest that adjusting to earlier yields, and while society is unlikely to suffer planting dates increased yields by nearly 10 from warming, increments in precipitation could percent while the introduction of new varieties be adverse to farmers. also helped mitigate negative impacts. In another study, Iglesias and Minguez (1997) Naylor and others (2001) highlight ENSO-related report on the effect of other adaptations such as fluctuations in rice production on the island of using hybrid seeds, alterating the sowing dates Java, where more than half of Indonesia’s rice is and practicing double cropping for wheat and grown. Examining data from 1971 to 1998 on maize, as well as using short-cycle maize area planted, harvested, and yields, reveals that varieties as a second crop in Spain. The authors El Niño and La Niña events significantly affect examined the effect of combinations of these the timing of planting and result in fluctuations adaptation strategies and found that not only did in production. The authors point out that the yields increase despite higher temperatures but consequent domestic price instability has an also led to more efficient use of water (nearly adverse impact on food security for the lowest from 1 to 10 percent in southern regions and 40– income groups, who are net purchasers of rice 80 percent in northern regions) and land. and who spend 50 percent or more of their household budgets on food. More recently, in a study conducted in the Eastern European region, Stuczyinski and others The cost of climate variability on rice production (2000) conclude that Polish agriculture could is again underlined in a study by Lansigan and change from -5 percent to +5 percent of current others (2000) based on the Philippines. levels with adaptations, while without According to the authors, climate variability in adaptations, production is likely to reduce by 5– the form of typhoons, floods, and droughts have 25 percent. In a study of climate impacts on resulted in 82.4 percent of the total Philippine agriculture in Kazakhstan, Mizina and others rice losses from 1970 to 1990. The cost of (1997) find a range of impacts depending on the domestic losses in 1990 alone from climatic predicted climate scenario, from 70 percent Climate Change Series 23 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations reductions in yields (in a doubling of CO2 Their results demonstrate that the net impact is scenario) to possible yield increments (see negative, with substantial damages in the center- Mizina and others (1999)). Similarly, west region of the country, while the southern Alezandrov and Hoogenboom (2000) find that areas (currently the most fertile) benefit current CO2 levels of 330 parts per million moderately. The authors estimate, given a 2° C resulted in yield reductions of winter wheat increase in temperature and an 8 percent (especially maize) in Bulgaria. The authors increase in precipitation by 2100, a reduction in ascribe the reduction to a shorter crop season expected agricultural net revenue of 12.3 percent due to higher temperature and reduction in in the case of India, and 20 percent in Brazil precipitation. However, their GCM simulations (without carbon fertilization effects). As noted also indicated that the inclusion of the direct by the authors, this is a higher estimate of net effects of CO2 resulted in an increase in winter impacts relative to earlier estimates. In general wheat yields. the authors find that temperature changes have 2.3.2 Ricardian Studies an adverse impact, whereas an increase in precipitation is beneficial. Significant regional The Ricardian technique has been applied to the variation is observed in the impacts from a 2 United States (see also Mendelsohn, Nordhaus degree increase in temperature normals and a 7 and Shaw (1994, 1996,), and Mendelsohn and percent increase in precipitation normals. Dinar (2002)), England and Wales (Maddison Moreover, coastal and inland regions of India are 2000), India and Brazil (Kumar and Parikh, shown to have the most harmful impacts, 1998), Sanghi (1998), Sanghi, Mendelsohn and whereas high-value agricultural regions suffer Dinar (1998), McKinsey and Evenson (1998), Sanghi and Mendelsohn (1999), Timmins 2001), limited damage. In response, the authors Cameroon (Molua, 2002) and recently, Tunisia highlight the need to develop heat-tolerant high- (Etsia and others 2002). value crops, as well as minimizing runoff in order to take advantage of increased rainfall In their seminal paper on the use of the during the winter season. Mitigation of pest Ricardian technique to value climate impacts, infestations during the warmer winter climates Mendelsohn, Nordhaus and Shaw (1994) is also advocated to be necessary. differentiate between economic costs and benefits associated with climate change Kumar and Parikh (1998) examine adaptation depending on the time of year the impacts options while estimating the agricultural occurred.31 Their estimates from the cross- impacts. The relationship between farm level net sectional approach method indicate more revenue and climate variables is estimated using conservative estimates (relative to contemporary cross-sectional data in India. The authors agronomic studies) of likely impacts in the demonstrate that even with adaptation by United States that range from -$5.8 billion to farmers of their cropping patterns and inputs in +$36.6 billion (excluding CO2 effects), contingent response to climate change, losses would remain on the type of model and climate scenario used significant. The loss in farm-level net revenue in the analysis.32 given a temperature rise of 2°C–3.5°C is estimated to range between 9 percent and 25 Sanghi, Mendelsohn, and Dinar (1998) apply the percent. Kumar and Parikh (1998) projected a Ricardian technique using district level data on 30–35 percent reduction in rice yields for India agricultural yields and land values in Brazil. given a similar temperature increase (or losses in 24 Environment Department Papers Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture the range of US$3–4 billion). Moreover, the plot has a considerable influence on the price per authors conclude that controlling for yearly acre). weather deviations did not appear to make a significant difference, thereby suggesting that In a forthcoming paper, Mendelsohn and Dinar various other factors, such as government policy (2002) revisit (using recent data) the U.S. case and prices, were having a major influence on study examined earlier by Mendelsohn and variations in net revenues. others (1994) to test whether surface water withdrawal can help explain the variation of McKinsey and Evenson (1998) employ a model farm values across the United States, and specification that is similar to the Ricardian whether adding these variables to the standard model developed by Mendelsohn and others Ricardian model changes the measured climate (1994). In particular, they utilize a net revenue sensitivity of agriculture. The paper concludes specification of the model, and using two-stage that the value of irrigated cropland is not least squares, examine the processes of sensitive to precipitation, and increases in value technological and infrastructural change that with temperature. The authors find that characterized India’s green revolution. In contrast sprinkler systems are used primarily in wet, cool to earlier studies, McKinsey and Evenson (1998) sites, whereas gravity, and especially drip examine the primary technological variables of systems, help compensate for higher the green revolution— namely, that of adoption temperatures. These results indicate that of high-yielding varieties, and expansion of irrigation can help agriculture adapt to global multi-cropping and irrigation, within a warming. framework that also incorporate detailed data on soils and climate, public and private investment In a study of the southwestern region of variables, and prices. Their results highlight that Cameroon, Molua (2002) explores the impact of climate affects technology development and climate variability on agricultural production diffusion. The authors also find that the through an analysis at the farm household level. converse—where technology development The results suggest that precipitation during affects the impacts of climate on productivity. growing, and adaptation methods through Furthermore, the authors assert that technology changes in soil tillage and crop rotation practices development and difficusion and climate has a have significant effects on farm returns. Results significant impact on net revenue in agriculture from the Ricardian analysis confirm that farm- in India. level adaptations including change in tillage and rotation practices and change in planting and Maddison (2000) employs the Ricardian harvesting dates positively correlate with higher technique to estimate the marginal value of farm returns. In addition, Molua finds that various farmland characteristics in England and irrigation in the growth period, especially during Wales. His findings reveal that climate, soil dry spells, is very important for productivity. quality, and elevation, in addition to the structural attributes of farmland, were Etsia and others (2002) examine the economic significant determinants of farmland prices. impact of climate change on agriculture in Maddison also finds that landowners are Tunisia using cross-sectional regional data over constrained by their inability to costlessly an 8-year period. Assuming CO2 doubling, as repackage their land (given that the size of the Climate Change Series 25 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations well as increase in temperature of 1.5 degrees The authors submit that primary crop-producing (C), and 7 percent increase in rainfall, their areas in the non-coastal regions are likely to results point out that Tunisia is likely to suffer experience a reduction in revenues. losses in agricultural production of 7–22 percent. 26 Environment Department Papers 3 Adaptations to Climate Change Adaptation to climate impacts in general, and in and consequences or performance of adaptation the agricultural sector in particular, is not a new strategies or measures (Burton, 1997; Tol and phenomenon. Natural and socioeconomic others 1998; Basher 1999; Klein and others 1999; systems have continuously been adapting Smit and others 1999). It is also apparent from autonomously, or in accordance with a plan, to a the empirical literature that while adaptation changing environment throughout history (albeit options are numerous, they must be site- and with various natural and socioeconomic sector-specific and reflect numerous decision constraints that required surmounting33 rules. Schneider and others (2000), for instance, (Rosenzweig and Liverman 1992; Rosenberg suggest these should include the extent of belief 1992). In fact, as argued by Burton and others that the climate is actually changing; awareness (1996), the complexity and interrelationship of of the type and form of change; knowledge of various sectors and systems suggest that technology, not only today but in years to come; adaptations “made by one particular system may and assumptions about what governmental not have necessarily transpired by accident but could have occurred either in part, or as a whole, policies will be in various regions and over time. and in association with other sectors that it is 3.1 Addressing Climate Variability and inherently linked with.� Climate Change As studies cited above highlight, the right mix of With impacts on the agricultural sector adaptations have the potential to significantly manifesting from both climate variability and reduce (or enhance) the magnitude of potential long-run climate change, the type of adaptation adverse (or beneficial) impacts on agricultural option that is implemented is clearly crucial. productivity. Research has shown that the While climate variability impacts will be agricultural sector is especially adaptable given essentially local in scale, climate change will that technological, resources, and management affect long-term trends. The literature reflects changes can be undertaken relatively quickly this distinction in terms of studies that focus on (Mendelsohn 2000).34.However, as Smit and the impact of adaptations to changing average Pilifosova (2001) stress, in order to formulate climate conditions as opposed to others that effective adaptation policies, an understanding concentrate on adjusting to inter-annual of the processes involved in adaptation decisions is necessary. This includes information on steps variations and extremes. It is also this distinction in the process, decision rationales, uncertainties, that underscores the necessity (as argued below) choices of adaptation types and timing, of different policies to address climate variability conditions that stimulate or dampen adaptation, and climate change impacts. Climate Change Series 27 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations The importance of adapting to climate Recent research, however, by Mendelsohn and variability in addition to changes in mean others (2002),36 based on cross-sectional county- climate has been highlighted in numerous level data of agricultural productivity in the studies. (Besides those highlighted in the United States, Brazil, and India, reveals that previous section, see also Schneider and others while climate variance is important, it explains 2000; Polsky and Easterling 2001; Brumbelow only a very limited portion of the observed and Georgakakos 2001.) Smit and Pilifosova variation in net revenue in cross-sectional (2001) argue that climate change-related stimuli analysis. Results have repeatedly shown strong are not only limited to changes in average evidence that climate normals relative to climate annual conditions, but also include variability variance, specifically for those months that are and associated extremes. The impact of variable crucial for agricultural productivity (including climate and extreme events has been noted to be post planting, growth, and harvesting periods) significant in poorer developing countries (Huq are more significant and explain a large 2002; Hay 2002).35 Similarly, studies based on proportion of the variance in net and gross industrial countries, for example, Reilly and revenue and fraction of land under agriculture. others (2001) contend that the consequences of The economic studies undertaken to date climate change in the United States pivot on consistently reveal this result—a finding in changes in climate variability and extreme contrast to studies using alternate methods of events. In another study based on crop yields in impact estimation. the United States, Brumbelow and Georgakakos (2001) find higher irrigation demands in The need to address climate variability and long- southern regions and decreased irrigation term climate change does, therefore, raise the demands in the northern and western areas for question of when to adapt, particularly given both higher means and extremes in climate. The that some impacts are more difficult to adapt to importance of considering climate variability in than others. For example, in the case of addition to changes in mean climate when infrastructure, there is limited need to undertake estimating adaptation has also been highlighted costly investments to address climate variability concerns. Such types of investments in in numerous studies in developing countries (especially capital-intensive) adaptations (Robock and others 1993; Mearns and others become less attractive when sudden or dramatic 1997; Alderwish and Al-Eryani 1999; changes in climate can render the investments Alexandrov 1999; Qunyingand Lin 1999; and inappropriate and costly. Some of the investment Murdiyarso 2000). IPCC states “the key features literature has outlined that there is value in not of climate change for vulnerability and investing in new technologies at present given adaptation are those related to variability and that it preserves the option of investing at a extremes, not simply changed average better time in the future (Schimmelpfenning conditions� (IPCC 2001; Chapter 18). The report 1995). Studies on climate impacts on agriculture argues that communities are generally more in the United States, for instance, have lent adaptable to gradual changes in average climate support by establishing that costly adaptations conditions given the time dimension, but clearly and mitigation options are not warranted as yet. less so to changes in the frequency or magnitude Instead, limited modifications to farm of variable climate conditions, especially production methods are viewed to be more extremes. effective (such as water conservation in 28 Environment Department Papers Adaptations to Climate Change agriculture and restructuring crop insurance and adaptations that will be successful regardless of disaster assistance programs to counter potential the temporal dimension of climate impacts. risks). In contrast, in terms of recent results, such Nevertheless it is important that policy is as Quiggen and Horowitz’s37 finding that the appropriately targeted to address the exact main market-based effects of climate impacts nature of climate concerns. will be on very long-lived infrastructure whose value is associated with its location (for example, 3.2 Ex-Post and Ex-Ante Adaptations dams, roads, grain storage facilities, food In theory, the literature discusses two types of processing facilities, and so forth), then it is likely responses to address climate impacts, necessary to make investments to ensure that namely, those that are reactive or, alternatively, vulnerability to anticipated climate change is anticipatory adaptations. Measures made in reduced. That is, there is greater benefit from anticipation of a coming change are ex-ante. adaptation options in socioeconomic sectors and They require that the decision maker be able to systems where the turnover of capital predict what is coming. Reactive (or investment and operating costs is shorter, rather autonomous) adaptations consist of coping than where long-term investment is required strategies that agents and institutions are likely (Yohe and others 1996; Sohngen and to make in response to climate impacts after the Mendelsohn, 1998; and Smit and Pilifosova fact (ex-post). These strategies merely require 2001). In the case of the latter, given that the the decision maker to be aware of changes that pace of climate change is slow, there is time to have occurred. The question that arises is thus make the necessary adjustments in a dynamic when should adaptations be pursued? Both ex- way over time (Mendelsohn and Nordhaus ante and ex-post strategies have strengths and 1999). weaknesses. A key message that is thus emphasized in this The effectiveness of reactive measures is paper is that climate variability and climate dependent on resources at hand to cope with an change need to be treated separately in that each event. The capacity to adapt autonomously will require a different set of policies. Some have depends on, among other things, institutional argued that given the linkages between these two support, manpower, financial and technological drivers of climate impacts, the distinction resources (see Ausubel, 1991; Yohe and others between adapting to short-run concerns as 1996; Mendelsohn, 1999; Mendelsohn and opposed to long-term issues is sometimes Neumann 1999). However, Barnett (2001) argues blurred.38 However, the fact remains that some that focusing policy on such autonomous types of adaptations are simply designed to adaptations is likely to be futile because there is address short-term impacts from variable no guarantee that the necessary processes that climate. These typically have little or no benefit trigger adaptation, which are essentially for reducing vulnerability in the long term. governed by the “respective influences of biology Others are more appropriate for reducing and culture on human behavior� (page 980) will susceptibility to climate change impacts in the occur. On the other hand, Mendelsohn (1999) long run, but clearly have limited effect or emphasizes that sectors that can adjust quickly functionality in the short term. This does not, to climate change can adapt to climate as it however, preclude the fact that there are some unfolds. In this respect, sectors such as Climate Change Series 29 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations agriculture do not generally have long-lasting 3.3 Private versus Public Adaptations capital and thus the early depreciation of capital At the outset, it is important to differentiate to adjust to climate change would not be between private and public adaptations. Private necessary. adaptations are those undertaken only for the exclusive benefit of the individual decision An alternative response strategy encompasses maker. The adoption of various measures will be precautionary or planned (ex-ante) adaptations driven purely by self-interest and underlying to climate change. Mendelsohn (1999) asserts welfare-maximizing objectives (including profit that this type of adaptation should be more maximization, output maximization, and so appropriately aimed at capital-intensive sectors forth). Mendelsohn (1999), for example, argues (coastal sector, forestry). These sectors either that adoption is likely to be a function of the take time to respond or are currently under stress farmer’s own discount rate for undertaking due to other pressures such that any further adaptations. The higher the discount rate, the exposure to climate change will help push them less likely that ex-ante adaptations will be over critical threshold boundaries. As Burton undertaken. In such instances, it is probable that (1996) and Smit and Pilifosova (2001) outline, a only short-term, ad hoc, ex-post adaptations are planned approach to address climate impacts is to be adopted. sensible given that it can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of reactive measures.39 In Consequently, there is little evidence to suggest general, planned adaptations are called for that only private adaptations will be adequate to through dynamic public policy40 (Bryant and counter climate impacts on agriculture. That is, others 2000) and formulated on the basis of reliance on the adjustments made by private robustness, flexibility, and net benefits agents to protect resources that have essentially (Lewandrowski and Brazee 1993; World Bank the characteristics of a public good41 (such as, for 1998). instance, managing water resources for irrigation, maintaining soil quality, forecasting Both ex-ante and ex-post adaptation measures climate, research on adaptation initiatives) will can be implemented at numerous levels, typically lead to the classic problem of under- including at the global, regional, or national provision42 by the market (Leary 1999). level. They can also be incorporated in response Conflicting objectives among multiple strategies adopted by individuals or local stakeholders are likely to complicate matters.43 communities. In addition, both direct and indirect response strategies aimed to negate concerns about predicted impacts of climate In light of high information requirements or change are included in the possible mix of ex- equity requirements,44 or other externalities ante strategies (Benioff and others 1996; associated with adaptation, some types of Fankhauser 1996; Smith 1997; Pielke 1998; UNEP government-sponsored adaptive measures 1998). Such adaptations have been recognized to therefore become necessary. While self-interest have the potential to reduce long-term will encourage the adoption of efficient private vulnerability as well as realize opportunities adaptations, public adaptation will be efficient associated with climate change, regardless of only with government intervention. The latter autonomous adaptation (Smith 1997; Burton and will in turn be determined by factors such as the others 1998; Fankhauser and others 1999). institutional environment, community structure, 30 Environment Department Papers Adaptations to Climate Change and existing public policies.45 Moreover, policy of skills, extent of support (that is, extension), designs will need to accommodate a series of and market conditions. The success of many of subtle changes over time as there is unlikely to be the micro level adaptation options will also one solution that will be adequate for all time. depend on household risks being independent For example, Mendelsohn (1999) stresses the (Skees and others 2002). When there are need for public (or joint) adaptation to be covariate risks (as in the case of extreme climatic dynamic, particularly in capital-intensive sectors events), options to reduce vulnerability are or where there are long-term assets. limited to insurance. Potential strategies include adaptation options At the macro level, effective adaptation to introduced at the national or local level as well climate change in agriculture demands a as those adopted by agents in the field (for combination of adjustments in the ecological, example, farmers) as part of ongoing social, and economic systems. In particular, the adjustments in agricultural practices (Dolan institutional environment, as well as the 2001). Clearly, numerous conditions will dictate prevalent economic, social, and political forces the extent and means of adaptation. It is evident will play a significant role (Chiotti and Johnson that given the diversity of interests, risks, and (1995); IPCC (1996); Chiotti and others (1997); resources faced by various stakeholders in Smit and others 1999). Kelly and Adger (1999) agriculture, there is likely to be an extensive maintain numerous local factors, including typology of adaptive responses that are economic and social considerations, human appropriate for each agricultural zone. At the capital limitations, and institutional capacity, micro level, adaptability to climate change will will have a significant role in facilitating or also be contingent on the ability of farmers or constraining the development and other primary decision makers to negate impacts implementation of adaptation measures. (or capitalize on opportunities) associated with a Variations in these key local factors across changed climatic environment. This in turn is countries mean that it is unlikely that the suite of likely to be dictated by numerous key factors, response strategies will be the same or applied including the type of local farming system, uniformly. tenure system, access to financial resources, level Climate Change Series 31 Typology of Adaptations 4 in Agriculture The following sections focus on the typology of The remainder of this paper examines some of adaptation options in agriculture.46 The the primary adaptation options to emerge from discussion is categorized within the following the literature. The discussion will attempt to framework. First, several micro level adaptation highlight some of the underlying constraints and options are examined. These include farm conditions that need to be addressed for their production adjustments such as diversification successful adoption. Following Dolan (2001),47 and intensification of crop and livestock the discussion of adaptation options is based on measures that are appropriate for the short and production; changing land use and irrigation; long term. Measures that are likely to produce and altering the timing of operations. Second, benefits irrespective of the time dimension are there are numerous market responses that have discussed in section 4.3. In this following section, emerged as potentially effective adaptation key short-term adaptations that emerge in the measures to climate change. They include literature are highlighted. development of crop and flood insurance schemes, innovative investment opportunities in 4.1 Short-Term Adaptations crop shares and futures, credit schemes, and From the existing literature, it is clear that some income diversification opportunities. A third types of adaptations are more appropriate to subset of adaptation options encompasses address short-term concerns. Most often, though institutional changes. Many that fall within this not exclusively, these measures primarily category require government responses. The address weather effects (that is, climate latter comprise pricing policy adjustments such variability). as the removal of perverse subsidies, development of income stabilization options, 4.1.1 Farm Responses agricultural policy including agricultural (a) Crop and Livestock Diversification and Changes support and insurance programs; improvement in Timing of Farm Operations in agricultural markets, and broader goals, such Among the most important and direct current as the promotion of inter-regional trade in adaptations to climate variability are a variety of agriculture. A fourth (and final) set of adaptation farm level responses. Diversification of crop and options considered in this paper are technological livestock varieties, including the replacement of developments. These consist of the development plant types, cultivars, hybrids, and animal breeds and promotion of new crop varieties and hybrids with new varieties intended for higher drought and advances in water management techniques or heat tolerance, have been advocated as having (for example, irrigation, conservation tillage). the potential to increase productivity in the face Climate Change Series 33 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations of temperature and moisture stresses (Benioff (Kaiser and others 1993; Lewandrowski and and others 1996; Smit and others 1996; Chiotti Brazee 1993; Reilly 1995; El-Shaer and others and others 1997; Downing and others 1997; 1996; Erda 1996; Easterling 1996; Iglesias and Baker and Viglizzo 1998). Diversity in seed others 1996; Mizina and others 1999; Parry genetic structure and composition has been 2000). recognized as an effective defense against numerous factors, including disease and pest Brklacich and others (2000) suggest that altering outbreak and, importantly, climate hazards. In a the intensity of fertilizer and pesticide study of adaptations in Nigeria by Mortimore application as well as capital and labor inputs and others (2000), it was found that farmers used can help reduce risks from climate change in 3–12 types of pearl millet, 6–22 varieties of farm production.48 Adjusting the cropping sorghum and 14–42 varieties of other cultivars. sequence, including changing the timing of Seed inventories were from multiple sources sowing, planting, spraying, and harvesting, to including inheritances, own selections from take advantage of the changing duration of planted material, and imported types with growing seasons and associated heat and recognized advantages over indigenous ones for moisture levels is another option. Altering the the new climate. According to the authors, direct time at which fields are sowed or planted can transfers of seeds from extension agents were also help farmers regulate the length of the rare although some were traced to originate to growing season to better suit the changed those developed in agricultural stations within environment. Farmer adaptation can also Nigeria or neighboring Niger. The primary mode involve changing the timing of irrigation (de Loe of transfer appears to have been outcrossing— and others 1999) or use of other inputs such as where farmers select from types grown in fertilizers (Chiotti and Johnston 1995). In a study neighboring farms or even in the wild and store on Tanzania, O’Brien and others (2000) report the seeds for planting in consequent years. that farmers undertake several of such Evidence from the selection of millet seeds, for adaptation measures in response to information example, indicates that farmers manage their from climate forecasts. own genetic pool by selecting and storing the best seeds from each year’s crop. In addition, Baker and others (1998) highlight several adaptation measures for livestock and Other options include changes in the timing and rangeland management that have emerged to intensity of production. Delcourt and Van kooten offset climate impacts. Possibilities include shifts (1995) note several options for addressing in biological diversity, species composition and/ impacts on yields and soils from climate impacts. or distribution. The options also include change Changing land-use practices such as the location in grazing management (timing, duration, and of crop and livestock production, rotating or location) or in mix of grazers or browsers; shifting production between crops and livestock, varying supplemental feeding; changing the and shifting production away from marginal location of watering points; altering the breeding areas can help reduce soil erosion and improve management program; changes in rangeland moisture and nutrient retention. The latter management practices; modifying operation includes not only changes in land allocation for production strategies as well as changing market different uses, but also the abandonment of land strategies. In temperate climatic areas, planned altogether and the cultivation of new land adaptation measures in livestock management 34 Environment Department Papers Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture that are advocated include the use of vegetative protection in light of likely pest and disease barriers or snow fences to increase soil moisture, outbreaks (Chen and McCarl 2001). Downing or windbreaks to protect soil from erosion. In and others (1997); and Parry and others (2000) warmer climates, adverse climatic conditions highlight that changes in the application of such as heat stress can be moderated by the pesticides and integrated pest and disease adoption of appropriate technology such as the control may be necessary to negate such impacts. use of sprinklers in livestock buildings or feedlots Alternative production techniques and crops, as (Chiotti and others 1997). Other measures based well as locations, that are resistant to infestations on recommendations in IPCC (1996) include and other risks can also be relied upon as adjusting livestock stocking rates (see also Reilly effective response strategies. For example, it has and others 1996); implementing feed been emphasized that this is one reason why conservation techniques (see also Smit and pearl millet is a primary crop in the Sahel, a others 1996) and fodder banks to moderate the region where poor soils, variation in rainfall, and consequences for animal production during high evapotranspiration make other grains too periods of poor crops; changing the mix of risky to produce (Fafchamps 1999). FAO (2000) grazing or browsing animals; altering animal reports that farmers diversify output through distribution by the use of mineral blocks, mixed farming systems of crops and livestock to watering points, and fences; implementing weed spread the risk of infrequent, and uncertain, pest management programs; restoring degraded and disease infestations.49 areas; and increasing native rangeland vegetation or plant-adapted species. A range of management practices have also emerged that can assist farmers adapt to loss of However, numerous constraints can make even soil moisture and organic carbon contents and these farm level adaptations difficult. For one, increased soil erosion as a result of changing short term adaptations are not costless. The most climate conditions. Erda (1996), and Parry and significant problem to overcome is that others (2000) discuss improved nutrient diversification is costly in terms of the income management techniques to maintain soil fertility opportunities that farmers forego (that is, and prevent erosion. Smit (1993) and Easterling switching crop varieties can be expensive, (1996) note that changing land topography making crop diversification typically less through land contouring and terracing and profitable than specialization—Skees and others construction of diversions and reservoirs and 1999). Moreover, traditions can often by difficult water storage and recharge areas can help to overcome and will dictate local practices. For reduce vulnerability by reducing runoff and example, if a local region has a long and rich erosion and promoting nutrient restocking in tradition of planting a particular crop variety, soils (see also de Loë and others 1999). Abidtrup the transition to newer and more suitable and Gylling (2001) report on the establishment of varieties can be difficult. agro-forestry to mitigate increased risk of soil erosion in some European countries. (b) Improved Nutrient and Pest Control Management In light of the increased frequency of droughts, Increased CO2 levels and higher temperatures farmers can further adapt by changing the are likely to induce a need for increased plant selection of crops. Inevitably, this will lead to Climate Change Series 35 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations shifts in the distribution of agricultural land use, efficiency (drip-irrigation and so on) is therefore which in itself will have impacts on soils. imperative. Alternatively, the introduction of other management techniques that conserve soil While the above discussion highlights that many moisture, such as reduced or no tillage, in order microlevel adaptation options exist, it is to maintain soil organic carbon contents can important to take into account the various result in improved soil structure and fertility. factors that influence the adoption of these Mahboubi and others (1993) reveal that soil options. Country- and site-specific studies have organic carbon contents increased by 85 percent considerable importance in this respect and must after eight years on clay loam soils following the be encouraged. For example, Adesina and introduction of reduced tillage. Kern and Chianu (2002) examine the determinants of Johnson (1991) report that increasing the area of farmers’ adoption and adaptation of agro- non-tillage cropland in the United States from 27 forestry in Nigeria. The authors find that gender percent to a potential 76 percent is estimated to of the farmer, extent of contact with extension result in gains of soil organic carbon of 0.43 Gt agents, years of experience with agro-forestry after 30 years.50 Fallow and tillage practices and tenancy status in the village are important (such as the planting of hedges to reduce factors. In addition, the extent of land pressure, evaporation together with the introduction of erosion intensity, fuel wood pressure, the drought-resistant crop varieties) as well as importance of livestock as an economic activity alternative drainage methods have also been in the village, and the distance of the village found to assist in reducing water runoff and locations from urban centers were also improving water uptake.51 Carter (1993) significant variables. Human capital variables provides a synthesis of existing research and were significant in explaining farmers’ decisions practices of present conservation tillage to adapt and modify the technology. practices in a wide variety of temperate agro- ecosystems and a discussion of methods to In addition, enabling farmers the options to overcome soil, climatic, and biological adapt also requires that other factors first be in constraints. For example, conservation tillage place. In particular, investment in institutional practices, which can include maintaining crop support to promote the dissemination of residues from previous harvests on the soil knowledge through extension, is important. This surfaces are seen as likely to help maintain soil should be supported by appropriate land reforms quality and provide protection against wind that establish property rights as well as measures erosion. that enhance farmers’financial ability to undertake the necessary adaptation (for Alternative farm strategies include increasing example, by improving access to credit and production per unit of evapotranspiration with banking facilities in rural areas). the use of new and improved varieties, reducing water use in land preparation as well as loss 4.1.2 Temporary Migration (through seepage and percolation) during the That migration is an important form of risk crop growth period, and adopting efficient water diversification has been made clear in the use methods. The diffusion of appropriate literature (see for example, Ellis 1998; Alderman technology to enhance greater water use and Paxson 1992). Migration is treated as either 36 Environment Department Papers Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture a transient phenomenon, or as a permanent rainfall variations in the semiarid areas such as feature that is necessary for achieving long-term the Sahel and the Kalahari. It is suggested that well-being52 (Saith 1992; Locke 2000). the nomadic pastoral systems are intrinsically Temporary (or “circular�) migration in able to adapt to fluctuating and extreme agriculture includes seasonal migration where climates—provided they have sufficient scope workers undertake off-farm or non-farm for movement and that other necessary elements activities for part of the year, and return during in the system remain in place. Similarly, based on harvest time. The movement of labor from one a study of households in dryland areas in agricultural area to another area, or across northern Ethiopia, Meze-Hausken (2000) finds sectors, as well as migration between and within that a range of coping strategies can delay urban and rural areas due to environmental, impacts after the onset of drought. While economic, or demographic reasons,53 is central to socioeconomic standing and resource a household’s ability to ensure security in endowments (such as animal holdings, non-farm livelihood (De Haan 1999).54 It has the potential income remittances, and so forth) play an to enhance social resilience of households important part, migration is often the only through temporary diversification of sources of recourse at the point that critical thresholds livelihood. governing habitability within an area are infringed. However, it is not clear from the literature to what extent climate change per se can be However, in cases that do not involve seasonal attributed as the primary factor in the pastoralists, some authors’56 maintain that decisionmaking process of households engaged climate is rarely the primary force behind the in agriculture on whether or not to migrate. migration decision. Political, economic, gender, Some evidence does exist, such as for instance, ethnic, social, and institutional considerations Tyson and others (2002) who find a significant also play an important role.57 For example, in a relationship between climate patterns in study of Pakistan using household data, Goria equatorial Africa and subtropical southern (1999) examines the role of environmental Africa55 and the southward migration and factors as determinants of migration among settlement patterns of the Sotho-Tswana rural people. The author concludes that higher speaking people from equatorial East Africa. The expected income from non-farm sources and authors indicate that changes in rainfall in the property assets influence the likelihood of two regions influenced migratory patterns. In migration, a result consistent with the process of addition, it has been the case that movement is migration from rural to urban areas and rural often provoked by difficult environmental environmental degradation. In addition, it is conditions (including harsh, sudden climatic argued that migration occurs among the poorest, events or series of climatic events) that intensify with the primary motive being an expected gain living conditions. There are numerous case from natural resources and other sources of studies, for instance, of pastoral migration, often income. Moreover, as expected, a higher density seen as an intentional adaptation for managing a and quality of natural assets in the place of origin seasonally varying resource base. Desanker decrease the likelihood of migration. Locke (2002) draws attention to nomadic societies that (2000) provides evidence from Vietnam and migrate in response to annual and seasonal India that individual cultivator responses to Climate Change Series 37 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations climate risk have included, among other For example, in a study of households engaged in adaptations, employment in new areas that agriculture in Nigeria, Morse and others (2002) necessitates temporary migration. However, it is find that the constant immigration and rarely one factor (such as climate) that results in emigration of males and females is necessary in migration. Institutional and government policy the wider interest of ensuring family (including incentives) have a major influence as sustainability, even if agricultural sustainability well. is compromised. Other studies have revealed that remittance income can be used in The impact of temporary migration on unproductive ways, particularly through agricultural productivity has received some changes in consumption patterns that have no attention, and the results have been mixed. Some direct beneficial impact on productivity (Connell studies conclude that remittances during periods and Conway 2000). of migration contribute to improve farm productivity by enabling the purchase of improved inputs and technology. Remittances 4.1.3 Insurance also help to overcome capital and credit That households engaged in agriculture constraints that otherwise persist (Conway and inherently need insurance mechanisms to cope Cohen 1998). Adger and others (2002) indicate with income risks has long been recognized. that remittance flows are invested in human or Moreddu (2000) outlines four types of risks faced physical capital to enhance household by the agricultural sector, including production production. However, the literature also risks due to weather variation, crop disease and indicates that temporary migration may have various other causalities; ecological risks from harmful impacts on agricultural productivity. climate change, pollution, and natural resource For example, Jokisch (2002) reports on numerous management; market risks, which depend on studies that indicate that household labor that input and output price variability; and regulatory remains behind is often overstretched during or institutional risks due to state intervention in migratory periods, resulting in land degradation. agriculture. Both formal and informal, as well as Zimmerer (1993) discusses labor shortages private and public, insurance programs have caused by seasonal migration of men that been discussed as effective measures to help contributes to the abandonment of conservation reduce income losses as a result of climate- measures in farms. Choudhury and Sundriyal related impacts (IPCC 2001). Although strictly (2003) recount, based on research in northeast not an adaptation measure—in the sense that it India, that the absence of labor, due to migration, does not involve a change of agricultural for crucial activities (such as weeding) reduces practice such as those outlined above, insurance the capacity of families to cultivate and manage is an important welfare-improving adaptation plots, which ultimately lowers productivity and (that is, a means of reducing household reduces yields. Of course, some have countered vulnerability). Smit and Skinner (2002) maintain by suggesting that where labor is abundant, that institutional responses that provide migration need not necessarily cause shortages opportunities for the costs of climate-related that would compromise productivity (Georges events to be distributed through such risk- 1990). However, other evidence points out that spreading mechanisms as crop, flood, and other agricultural productivity loss may be tolerated. insurance schemes will have a significant 38 Environment Department Papers Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture influence on shaping farm-level risk marginal farmers growing specified crops in management strategies. selected districts. The scheme was implemented only in 14 districts of 5 states. A separate Both formal and informal, as well as private and Livestock Insurance Policy59 has been public, insurance programs have been discussed administrated by the General Insurance as potential mechanisms by which to reduce Corporation of India (GIC) since the early 1990s. income losses from climate related impacts In contrast, in Africa, millions of small-scale (IPCC 2001). Examples from industrial countries farmers are entirely at the mercy of weather include flood insurance programs such as the patterns, with negligible availability and access private insurance systems in the United to insurance programs. Crop insurance in South Kingdom and Germany, or public initiatives Africa, for instance, is primarily limited to hail where government bears some or all risks, as in insurance and associated property and casualty France and Spain. In North America, federal- risk on major agricultural crops. According to and provincial- (state-) level crop insurance Crane (2001) �universal availability of crop programs58 buffer incomes from climate-related insurance in southern Africa is non-existent and risks (80 percent of which is allocated for flood crop coverage is limited to selected crops and relief), and taxpayer-subsidized flood insurance regions where risk can only be effectively (Smit 1993; Chiotti and others 1997; de Loë and managed through the investment of private others 1999). Other types of financial capital.� instruments in spreading exposure to climate- related risks include investment in crop shares, In developing countries with weaker financial and the use of futures or bank loans (see also institutions, particularly in rural areas, there has Mahul and Vermersch 2000). generally been more reliance on informal risk- coping strategies (Alderman and Paxson 1992). In contrast, despite the existence of formal Bardhan and Udry (1999) outline numerous government sponsored insurance programs, strategies including risk pooling (citing for successful examples are rare in developing example, Platteau and Abraham’s (1987) countries. In India, for example, a discussion of a reciprocal credit system among Comprehensive Crop Insurance Scheme (CCIS) fishermen in South India and Udry’s (1990) has been in operation in the country since 1985. investigation of households in northern Nigeria The scheme was introduced to provide an who simultaneously participate on both sides of opportunity for risk management and relief to the credit market). However, evidence also farmers whose crops suffer damaged from shows that such strategies are bound by natural disasters. While the scheme has helped a numerous complications that compromise their number of farmers switch to the use of yield- effectiveness. For example, Bardhan and Udry increasing techniques, the program has generally (1999) assert that risk-pooling strategies function suffered from low coverage rates and has well provided that information asymmetries are become increasingly unviable due to claims far minimized (for example, due to the limited size exceeding the premiums collected (Government of the communities) and the existence of of India (GOI), 1998). An Experimental Crop enforcement mechanisms. Insurance Scheme was introduced by the Government of India for one season during Numerous studies highlight the range of 1997/98 covering non-loanee small and problems that exist with providing insurance in Climate Change Series 39 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations the agricultural sector. Siegel and others (1995) between the national and state governments and argue that while there are numerous risk-coping the General Insurance Corporation, the actuarial strategies for rural households, their real choice probability of the risk covered is not correctly is limited. Households with extremely low estimated. Consequently, the system has incomes are inherently highly risk–averse, which encouraged false claims, resulting in its eventual in turn limits their financial ability and failure. In another study based on experiences in willingness to adopt new technologies that can Antigua and Barbuda, O’Brien (2000) highlights maintain and enhance crop productivity. Also, that although the insurance industry is the while many risk-coping strategies will be cornerstone of the islands’ development process, successful where risk is shared within a small access to crop insurance is restricted. Constraints community, these strategies are not likely to be include weak capital structures, oversaturation adequate for managing covariate risks. That is, of insurance providers, and a weak supervisory as Skees and others (2002) state, traditional capability. The result is that the availability and coping mechanisms are likely to fail where the affordability of catastrophe insurance is beyond entire community faces the same risks (that is, vulnerable communities, including farmers, and covariate risks) that create losses for all. In fishermen and low-income households. addition, Skees and others (1999) outline that many of the risks covered by multiple risk Another major difficulty in providing insurance insurance are inherently uninsurable. Vaughan in the agricultural sector is due to perverse (1989), cited by Skees and others, declares that incentives that arise from the availability of for risk to be insurable, various conditions that various schemes.61 That is, the speed at which need to be satisfied in fact rarely are. These farmers adapt can be adversely affected by the include “(a) quantification of the likelihood of an existence and extent of coverage of insurance event; (b) damages must be attributable to that programs. It has been noted, for example, that event and quantification of value; (c) not despite the availability of insurance, farmers are excessively high probability of occurrence; and at times reluctant to purchase coverage because (d) the occurrence of an event or the damages it they can expect to receive alternative payments causes should not be affected by the insured’s (such as emergency drought relief programs) in behavior (no moral hazard).� Skees and others catastrophic years from government without (2000) underscore that factors such as incurring any costs (Skees and others 1999). prohibitively high monitoring costs,60 and high IPCC (2001) highlights also that insurance opportunity costs of using public funds for programs that are inadequately targeted can agriculture (when a higher return can be foster complacency and, in the worst cases, obtained elsewhere) limit the viability of maladaptation. traditional crop insurance programs for medium and small farmers in developing countries. Much remains to be done in the case of using insurance to reduce vulnerability. Economic In a study of India, Joshi (2001) emphasizes that losses from extreme climatic events in the United the major problem that plagues the system of States during the 1988–1999 period were credit and insurance in India is the inadequacy substantial, with total damages/costs exceeding of crop insurance premiums. The main problem, $170 billion (Ross and Lott 2000). While in according to analysts, is that with risk shared industrial countries much of this cost is due to 40 Environment Department Papers Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture property damage, in developing countries the assistance is important to address short-term costs are often unaccounted but likely to also be vulnerability, it is also clear that incentives need substantial especially given the higher incidence to be introduced to ensure that any cycle of of loss of human life. According to estimates, the dependency on coverage of losses is gradually ratio of global property/casualty insurance eliminated. Innovative schemes must be premiums to weather-related losses— an introduced to ensure that adaptations to important indicator of adaptive capacity, minimize vulnerability are encouraged to ensure decreased more than three-fold between 1985 long-run sustainability. and 1999. There is likely to be a need for both public and private insurance schemes. In the 4.2 Long-Term Adaptations case of climate variability impacts, with While farmers must withstand and minimize the relatively lower probability of occurrence and adverse impacts of short term climate limited risks, private schemes should be variability, a different set of measures will be sufficient. However, the increased incidence of necessary to reduce vulnerability to anticipated climate-related economic losses is likely to future impacts of climate change. A range of reduce the profitability of insurance companies, adaptation options at both the farm and policy translating to increases in consumer prices and level are seen as highly relevant in this regard premiums, withdrawal of coverage, and increase (see discussion below). in publicly funded compensation and relief programs. This could not only impose severe Prior to examining these options, an important budgetary burdens on government, but there is issue that has tended to lack clarity in the also the risk that government provision would literature concerns the timing of long term result in similar perverse effects as an indirect adaptations. Some attribute the lack of initiatives subsidy on loss coverage. in numerous countries to developing a long term approach to climate change to a variety of In a recent article, however, Skees and others reasons, ranging from a general apathy (2002) announce that developments in financial (complacency) to difficulty of dealing with a instruments could make climate-related insufficient information (e.g. Bryant and others insurance in developing countries more 200l; Smit and others 2000). It is not that favorable than previous programs by making scientists and policy makers have ignored the insurance more affordable and accessible.62 The importance of climate change but rather introduction of tradable financial assets such as uncertainty of whether and where impacts will catastrophic bonds, insurance contracts, and materialize and/or their magnitude (Barnett other weather markets in Mexico are examples of 2001). The latter in particular, it is argued, makes recent innovations. The authors highlight also the design of an effective response strategy the recent effort commenced by the International difficult. In addition, short term and non- Finance Corporation (IFC) in helping several climatic events such as agriculture price support countries, including Ethiopia, Morocco, schemes continue to drive local agriculture Nicaragua, and Tunisia gain access to weather operations and policy (Lorenzoni and others markets as an example of the growing interest in 2001). The result is a tendency for various the private provision of weather insurance. At institutions responsible for planning adaptation the same time, while insurance and disaster strategies— often local Ministries and other Climate Change Series 41 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations government agencies, to “muddle-through� (ad new environment. For instance, Matarira (1996) hoc) responses, a potentially more costly highlights that in Zimbabwe farmers have approach than designing and implementing a switched successfully to the use of more drought longer term strategy (World Bank 2000). For tolerant crop in areas where the frequent example, in the case of semi-arid Africa, which is recurrence of droughts has made agriculture prone to drought, the creation of food reserves production difficult using the traditional crop and other costly relief efforts are continuously varieties. In the extreme case, where agriculture undertaken (often involuntarily) with limited, if is no longer viable, farmers have converted land any, long-term development plans to improve use from crop production to game ranching. productivity and management in climate Agricultural analyses of future climates indicate sensitive areas (FAO 2000). also that crops will move poleward with warming (Mendelsohn and Neumann 1999; However, given that warming is largely a Mendelsohn 2001). The extent of this migration concern of the future, long term adaptation must depends upon the severity of the warming. also be in the future63. The absence of long term adaptation plans has more to do with the fact Such types of long term adaptation however that warming has been minimal to date than to a demand that a number of underlying flaw of government. Adapting prematurely to prerequisites are in place. Clearly, the scope for climate change is not in the interests of countries shifting production to new lands, particularly in and there are few examples of climate change developing countries, is likely to be limited given that warrant a response today. In contrast, the population pressures and the availability of same is not true with variation. It could be that cultivable land. It is also likely to be constrained short term variation will remain the same over by other considerations such as farmers’ time and it is in the interest of countries to willingness and ability to move. Moreover, land- respond to variation today. Addressing climate use regulations or regulations on agricultural change— a long term phenomena, should entail production can hinder adaptation of this type. a comprehensive long term response strategy at Under such circumstances, crop rotations that the national or local level (World Bank 2000) but may not be optimal in a changed environment will require a dynamic approach. The remainder can be persisted with, resulting in severe losses in of this section outlines numerous options that the long term (Lewandrowski and Brazee (1993). have emerged in the literature that can meet Appropriate land reform that establish or long term concerns about climate change. strengthen property rights as well as measures that enhance their financial ability to undertake 4.2.1 Changing Crop Type and Location the necessary adaptation (for example, by improving access to credit and banking facilities As future climatic conditions unfold and farmers in rural areas) is necessary. In addition, learn how to implement adaptive strategies investment in, and diffusion of access to (which in turn will depend on the form of tenure, irrigation, together with institutional support to incomes, etc.), farmers could make long term promote the dissemination of knowledge adjustments such as changing crop varieties that through extension is important. are grown as well as where they are grown (i.e. location). Potential options include switching to Shifting crop location, for example, depends on a more robust varieties that are better suited to the number of factors such as the extent of resources 42 Environment Department Papers Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture and mobility of the affected person(s) and on the concern that changing crop types will not availability of suitable conditions (for example, automatically maintain previous levels of food soil structure and other environmental production or nutritional quality levels. characteristics). Changing crop types requires substantial investment in knowledge and skills. Moreover, there can be conflicts between public There is no guarantee that farmers will have the and private objectives. While the national necessary information of possible options objective may be to grow crops that are less without an effective network of extension water-dependent, it does not necessarily imply services that can filter knowledge gained that the new crops are equally (if not, more) through science to grass roots. In addition, it is profitable to the farmer. For example, You (2001) necessary that farmers possess the necessary examines agricultural adaptations to climate skills to implement an alternative production change through a land-use change strategy (that technique. There is thus a clear and distinct role is, switching drop types from rice to corn) to for strengthening extension services in address the issue of water shortages in northern agriculture in vulnerable countries to enhance China. The author finds that there are farmer awareness of potential adaptation insignificant disparities in expected yields from response options. corn compared to rice to warrant concerns about switching. However, income from rice is more There remain additional complications that need profitable than other crops (estimated to be to be overcome. Institutional failures in nearly double the value). There is thus a conflict agriculture can discourage farm management between a public or national objective of saving adaptation strategies such as changing the crop water and the private producer’s objective. An mix. Rigid agricultural and economic programs, incentive scheme, such as a government tax on with subsidies for certain crops in certain areas, incomes from rice cultivation (You 2001), could can constrain change and reduce the flexibility of induce farmers to switch. However, the land-use changes. At the policy level, the support government will need to take care to make a of certain crop prices can be disruptive when range of concurrent changes (such as climate change can render such crops appropriate agricultural marketing policies and inappropriate in a changed environment. investments, pricing policies, review of Similarly, food importation policies may agricultural credit schemes, and subsidization discourage better national adaptation to the programs— in short, an integrated and expected long-term climate changes. As stressed comprehensive plan that takes into account all in Rosenzweig and Hillel (1995), adaptations of key stakeholders. Without a complete adaptation this type are not likely to be costless, and some strategy, the success of policies in addressing may even cause disruptions to farmers as well as climate impacts is likely to be compromised. others in rural areas. For example, Alexandrov and Hoogenboom (2000), in a study on Moreover, while more than one adaptation adaptations to climatic impacts in agriculture in option remains possible, the best option may not Bulgaria, note that while changing sowing dates be chosen given established preference for, or is relatively costless at the farm level, it is likely aversion to, certain options (Smit and Pilifosova to interfere with the management of other crops 2001). In places where local subsistence farmers grown at other periods in the year. There is also are conservative by nature, the acceptance of Climate Change Series 43 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations change is likely to be gradual. Limited knowledge been imperative to sustaining food production of the options in addition to other priorities, and adaptations to climate change.66 A history of limited resources, or economic or institutional investments in technological innovations in constraints (such as bureaucratic inefficiencies), agriculture is attributed to enabling the United are likely to make the requisite decisionmaking States and other industrial countries to adapt process challenging (Eele, 1996; Bryant and much better to the expected climatic change others 2000; de Loë and Kreutzwiser 2000). relative to most countries (Crosson 1983). In South67 and Southeast Asia the benefits of the 4.2.2 Development of New Technologies and green revolution are also well known68, even Modernization when concerns regarding distributional Research and technological innovation in crop inequities and health concerns that have been and animal productivity have enabled farmers to raised are taken into account (Evenson and cope with various climatic conditions and have Gollin 2000). At the same time, there is concern been fundamental to the growth and that there is yet an unfulfilled potential for development of agriculture in both industrial technology in the agricultural sector in and developing countries64 (Hayami and Ruttan developing countries. For example, in places 1985; Houghton and others 1990; Rosenberg such as Africa, there is unease that poorer 1992; Reilly and Fuglie 1998; Evenson 1999; Gopo technologies and insufficient innovation 2001). Smithers and Blay-Palmer (2001) identify strategies, compounded by other resource and two basic types of technological options, institutional constraints, have contributed to mechanical and biological, that are important for worsening vulnerability to climate variability. In agriculture. Mechanical innovations include such places there is a need for the continuation irrigation, conservation tillage, and integrated and increased support of research on drainage systems— all of which have technological options for agricultural contributed significantly to the intensification of development in addition to the need for agricultural activity and permitted a wider correcting institutional shortcomings. range of agricultural activities than local resources would have otherwise permitted. On Smithers and Blay-Palmer (2001), however, point the other hand, biological options also have an out that climate change alone is unlikely to important role in enabling cropping systems to induce the relevant technological changes. The adapt to a wide range of climatic conditions. authors state that besides the challenges posed Investment in crop breeding, the promotion of by knowledge for scientific discovery, climate-resistant varieties that offer improved innovations are also deeply rooted in legal, resistance to changing diseases and insects, institutional, and economic circumstances that breeding of heat- and drought-resistant crop shape and direct their path of development, all varieties, the use of traditional varieties bred for of which vary from place to place. In this regard, storm and drought resistance, and investment in government policy,69 macroeconomic conditions, seed banks are necessary for success in consumer demands and preferences, and science, overcoming vulnerability to climate impacts each with its own set of driving forces, are (Crosson,1983).65 Evenson (1999) and Smithers important determinants of the rate at which and Blay-Palmer (2001) cite numerous studies technological innovations are made. Investment that illustrate that agricultural innovations have levels in public sector research, policies 44 Environment Department Papers Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture governing the granting of and use of intellectual 4.2.3 Improving Water Management property rights, and the role of private-sector Improved water resource management will be multinationals and contemporary research vital to sustaining crop productivity levels in the interests will constitute additional factors that face of both climate variability and longer-term need to addressed with respect to how, where, change. In areas that are currently dependent what type, and rate of, technological innovations. primarily on rain-fed agriculture, the conjunctive use of surface and ground water Finally, although advances in science and resources will play an increasingly important biotechnology offer powerful tools that hold role in enabling farmers to adapt to fast- much promise to overcome the many challenges changing climatic conditions. However, it is also posed by scarcity of resources and threats posed clear that in the face of rising domestic and by pests and crop disease to the agricultural industrial demand, additional efforts are sector, there has been a debate over the advocacy necessary to ensure efficient management of of biotechnology— be it for climate or other water resources. With climate change and reasons—in both industrial and developing variability increasing pressure on available countries. The role of multinationals and water resources (and especially, net irrigation restrictive patenting practices; lack of diffusion requirements), improved water management is of technologies in developing counties and the one of the most important long-term adaptation related issue of affordability of technology to options that countries must pursue. poorer farmers; uncertainties about long-term implications of biotechnology on health due to According to recent estimates, irrigation use of pesticides and herbicides and resultant efficiency in developing countries is extremely contamination of the ecosystem have been the low. Rosegrant and others (2002) suggest that focus in recent debates. McAfee (1999), for average irrigation efficiency70 ranged from 25– example, argues that there is evidence to doubt 40 percent for the Philippines, Thailand, India, many of the perceived benefits of transgenic Pakistan, and Mexico, to 40–45 percent in products. In particular, McAfee states (among Malaysia and Morocco. In contrast, in Taiwan, other reasons) that the profitability criterion Israel, and Japan, irrigation efficiencies average often dictates research goals which in turn can at 50–60 percent. At the same time, Döll (2002) compromise the availability and diffusion of finds that climate change impacts are likely to biotechnologies that the poor need most. While increase the net irrigation requirements in areas there is little doubt that concerns need to be serviced by irrigation (as of 1995) by addressed directly, the call for moratoriums on approximately 60 percent by the 2020s (and the transgenic research is considered to hurt 2070s). Simulations of irrigation requirements developing countries the most (Anderson 1999). Similarly, Pardey (2001) finds that claims that under two climate change scenarios in Döll’s patents and intellectual property rights stifle study suggest a likely shift in the optimal research in developing countries are speculative. growing periods, by a month or more into the Instead, it is argued the more serious issue, based winter season, as well as a change in cropping on current research, is that developing countries patterns. In addition, results indicate that the often lack the necessary funding and scientific negative impacts of climate change are likely to and technical resources to access the benefits of be more severe than those of climate variability. biotechnology. In particular, increased per hectare irrigation Climate Change Series 45 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations requirements may be yet another factor limiting agricultural production in the face of irrigation. Döll therefore recommends that it uncertainties associated with rainfall frequency may be necessary to shift irrigated agriculture to and drought (Smith and others 1996, Brklacich regions where climate change will decrease per and others 1997; Klassen and Gilpen, 1998). For hectare irrigation requirements. example, Jolly and others (1995) find that agricultural production in Senegal must be better Stakhiv (1998) asserts that the principles of planned in order to avoid shortages in traditional policies71 aimed at effective water production below subsistence levels from climate management by various international agencies change impacts. In particular, it is recommended (including FAO, World Bank, United Nations that farmers need to adapt by shifting from a Environment Programme) will promote “no cash crop system to a more stable system (for regrets� adaptation to climate change. A wide example, maize), requiring long-term range of adaptation measures have been investments in irrigation. Chiotti and Johnston highlighted in this regard, including improving (1995) recommend altering the scheduling of water distribution strategies; changing crop and existing irrigation options72 to avoid the irrigation schedules to use rainfall more incidence of salinization, and to foster an effectively; water recycling and the conjunctive increase in moisture retention in the face of use of groundwater; rehabilitation and decreasing precipitation and increasing modernization; and improving and evaporation. An alternatively strategy includes strengthening farm-level managerial capacity. improved irrigation practices through better Kundzewicz (2002) proposes that non-structural water management plans and usage of measures including source control (watershed/ technological innovations. Current technological landscape structure management), laws and advances in irrigation, such as the use of center regulations (including zoning), economic pivot irrigation, dormant season irrigation, drip instruments, an efficient flood forecast-warning irrigation, gravity irrigation, and pipe and system, a system of flood risk assessment, sprinkler irrigation, make this possible (see also awareness raising, flood-related data bases, and Lewandrowski and Brazee 1993; Reilly 1995; so forth are vital. A site-specific mix of structural Benioff and others 1996; Reilly and others 1996; and non-structural measures is therefore in line Downing and others 1997; Parry and others with adapting to climate change and promoting 2000). For example, Bullock and others (1996) sustainable development. state that when water is in short supply, improved irrigation practices (for example, drip From among these options, irrigation is irrigation, underground irrigation) can conserve especially important to agricultural production 50 percent of water compared with conventional in arid and semiarid regions where inadequate approaches. rainfall, high temperatures, and evapotranspira- tion rates limit crop growth. Impending Demand-side response strategies that have pressures from climate change will only intensify received considerable attention include the the importance of improved irrigation efficiency reform of water pricing for irrigation (see Dinar as an adaptation tool (World Bank 2000). Even in (2000) for a collection of case studies on water other humid areas, irrigation has become the pricing reforms, and Guerra and others (1998), primary tool to increase and stabilize who review the literature on irrigation efficiency 46 Environment Department Papers Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture and on the potential for increasing productivity flood control and measures to capture rainwater of water in rice-based systems). Specific policy during the monsoon seasons (in some parts of the prescriptions are suggested for the elimination of tropics). O’Brien also stresses the need for subsidies in irrigation as well as incentives for facilitating (through technology) improvement increasing irrigation efficiency. in water distribution systems in agriculture, with greater responsibilities for operations resting on Pricing water at its social cost (through the the farmers themselves. raditional practices, introduction of a water surcharge) is another with stakeholder participation, can also be of possibility, although these options then raise a immense value. An example is community plethora of political-economy issues concerning management in rice farming in Sri Lanka. Under water property rights that need to be addressed. the Irrigation Ordinance of Sri Lanka, the Alternative policy measures, including Administrative Head of District Public Service (a establishing well-defined, transferable property government agent) is empowered to hold water rights in water. Once current users have well management meetings prior to each season. established permits to use the water, allowing During the meeting, farmers discuss the type of the permits to be traded, creates conditions for crop to be grown during the season and the water banks and other institutions that would timing of the first release of water and the final facilitate voluntary water transfers (Tobo 2000). release of water. The final decisions reflect the In industrial countries, the removal of barriers to extent of water in the main reservoir, and the open water markets is seen as an important probability of further rains as the season measure to facilitate improved adaptation. proceeds. Economists argue that the development of water markets (for example, in North America) would Traditional adaptation techniques will also be promote the allocation of water from federal effective to deal with shortages in water. For projects to those with the highest-valued use. At example, evidence from agricultural areas in Sri the heart of the argument is the notion of moving Lanka suggests that during times of drought and away from pricing water below its market value. when water supplies from reservoirs are limited, In addition, the development of water markets, the farming community temporarily ignores the with accompanying reform of water laws, would individual boundaries of the farms and jointly encourage investment in (among other things) cultivates land close to the irrigation outlet in water-efficient irrigation systems. Thus, where order to minimize losses from evaporation and irrigation is subsidized and water has alternative movement of water. Each farmer cultivates an uses, social benefits of reducing the agricultural amount of the cultivable land that is in sector’s use of water may justify government proportion to the amount owned. Similarly, programs to help farmers acquire more water- when fragmentation of land makes it efficient technologies. uneconomical to cultivate in small units, an alternative cooperative farming technique is O’Brien (2000) identifies other adaptation adopted. A farmer with a very small unit of land measures to promote the conservation of water can opt to forego the cultivation of his unit and through development of sustainable water give the opportunity to another to cultivate a projects. These include, for example, the larger unit including his own. This makes the construction of small dams for water storage and operational unit more viable (U.N Economic and Climate Change Series 47 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and undertaking requisite institutional reforms 2002). that hinder the pursuit of effective water resource management strategies. However, given It is clear, however, that there are challenges the uncertainty surrounding forecasts of regional with regard to water use and availability that changes in precipitation, it has not yet been also need to be overcome. Increased demand for proven that making water adaptations in water by competing municipal and industrial advance of climate changes is in fact prudent. sectors can limit the viability of irrigation to counter the adverse impacts of rainfall variation. 4.2.4 Permanent Migration of Labor Expanded irrigation can lead to groundwater The second form of migration that Locke (2000) depletion, soil salinization and water-logging. In outlines is referred to as “frontier agriculture some regions, these limits have already been migration.� This encompasses permanent realized, such as in China, where historical migration in the form of the movement of adaptations in agriculture such as relocating migrants into new economic areas, possibly due productions or employing irrigation are no to government policies or permanent changes in longer options in some areas, as population their previous environment. For example, pressures have increased on land and water frontier agriculture migration can encapsulate resources (Fang and Liu 1992; Cai and Smit the movement of migrants from poorer 1996). Numerous challenges need to be overcome agricultural lowlands in one region to lowlands in order to increase water supply. As emphasized in other regions or even other resource highlands by Dinar (2000), these challenges include (that is, forced change). Westing (1992) finds financial crises; low-cost recovery of the approximately 3 percent of the African investment in the water system; the role of population have been permanently displaced political parties, electoral systems, and the role of due to (primarily) environmental degradation political parties, electoral systems and interest (where climate impacts are part of the range of groups. causalities). Stakhiv argues knowledge exists of policies or As Desanker (2002) stresses, long-lasting climate management measures necessary to adapt water pressures, such as prolonged drought, which resource management to climate change. increase the vulnerability of migratory groups to However, this knowledge is difficult to apply a climate change (by limiting the scope of areas to priori, in advance of the climate change. Stakhiv move to), can be disastrous. Short-term migrants argues that it is necessary to bring forward the can be forced into becoming more permanent timing of the implementation of the measures in migrants, resulting in dire consequences such as anticipation of the projected climate impacts.73 pressures on land and resources. Many of the He argues for improved forecasting procedures, adaptations outlined in the previous section to simulation models, and improved data address concerns with short term climate monitoring systems. Other necessary variability will not be adequate in the face of preconditions include overcoming economic new and long lasting climate conditions. For constraints (for example, irrigation and other example, even insurance programs will not be high-efficiency water conservation technology sufficient if productivity of land becomes require major, long-term, costly investments) unviable and may in fact act as a deterrent to 48 Environment Department Papers Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture change despite market signals that indicate considerably on underlying local environmental, otherwise (Reilly 2003)) Evidence suggests that, institutional, and socio-economic conditions. if unmanaged or uncontrolled, large-scale Domestic, as well as regional cooperation in migration of this type can result in significant science, resource management, and development impacts on the environmental resource bases as are extremely important. Some of the main well as indigenous societies.74 economic and institutional issues are likely to be beneficial irrespective of the nature of the In this context, a clearly defined system of climate change. property rights and enforcement become necessary to avert potential stress. For example, 4.3.1 Investment and Accumulation of Capital in the case of nomadic movements that can One of the main impediments to adjustment to result in permanent migration if climate impacts climate change is poverty itself. the absence of persist, then “tragedy of commons� kinds of resources constrains the ability of farmers to problems need to be avoided. The establishment make the necessary adaptations. In a study on of an appropriate system of property rights (at Tanzania, O’Brien and others (2000) report that the individual or community level) is part of the despite numerous adaptation options that likely solution (re-training and extension services farmers are aware of, and willing to apply, the are other solutions that would be needed). In lack of sufficient financial resources and practical terms, however, an appropriate policy shortage of farmland were among the significant response should be dynamic, evolving as the constraints to adaptation.75 In a similar study on migration flow changes. the effect of climate forecasts in Namibia, O’Brien and others (2000) find that serious 4.3 Adaptations Irrespective of the structural or economic constraints are among the Temporal Dimension of Climate Impacts primary reasons for lack of farmer response to Alternatively, policy makers have focused on the the anticipated climate impacts. The report notes agriculture sector but on more immediate issues that subsistence farmers are heavily dependent such as making agriculture production on the availability of credit to meet the costs of sustainable given a host of non-climatic impacts agricultural activity76. They are either not able to (including, for example, declining state support, obtain the necessary credit to purchase the rising cost of inputs, provision of infrastructure necessary inputs77 or chose not to for various and irrigation, etc). Policies aimed at increasing reasons. the resiliency of the sector to other, including non-climatic, factors are necessary and will help Emphasis is therefore placed on providing in improving capacity to cope with both climate additional resources to be allocated to increase variability and climate change. the ability and flexibility of farmers to alter production strategies in response to the It is important that solving immediate concerns forecasted climate conditions. Brklacich and facing domestic agriculture sectors do not delay others (2000) suggest that capital (and labor) the formulation and implementation of efficient adjustments can help reduce risks from climate responses to promote long term sustainability change in farm production. They argue that both issues (Smit and Pilifosova 2001). In particular, a public and private injection of financial effective adaptation will also depend resources is necessary to facilitate the Climate Change Series 49 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations transformation of marginalized farmers who related risks. In a recent study, Mizina and lack sufficient access to credit. Additional others (1999) evaluate the appropriateness of measures (such as education) are required to various adaptation measures for agriculture in overcome social practices that have traditionally Kazakhstan. The paper discusses the decision been wary of, or constrained, borrowing. In theory behind a choice of a core adaptation addition, it will be necessary to design public strategy and problems that are likely to be policy to ensure that investment in the right type encountered in such an exercise. The results of of capital is made to increase resiliency to their decision analysis suggest that the following climate change. However, there is a big steps (in order of importance) need to be taken: difference between making capital available at the promotion of free market reform, the world interest rates and subsidizing capital. establishment of regional consultation centers Improving access to capital is surely going to that would impart knowledge on adaptation increase overall efficiency but subsidies may only alternatives to farms, the enforcement of create new problems in the absence of climate measures to control soil erosion, and the change. improvement of forecasting mechanisms. 4.3.2 Reform of Pricing Schemes, Development In another recent publication, Kherallah and of Open Markets, and other Reforms others (2002) review agricultural reforms The reform of agricultural policy may also be implemented across Africa. While the findings necessary not only to address climatic impacts, do not directly or specifically relate to but also to encourage efficient resource use and adaptations to climate change, the impact of the promote growth of the sector—which in turn reforms on agricultural production and prices, will themselves foster greater adaptability and and the net effect on the well-being of African resiliency to climate change. Examples of such households does have an important influence on reforms include the encouragement of flexible the potential to adapt to climate change.78 As land use—which could necessitate the removal Carter (1996), and Frederick (1997), and others of subsidies that otherwise slow land-use such as Stakhiv (1998) comment, some measures change—as well as long-term price stabilization should be implemented because they not only measures. Other options include the design of help to remove constraints to growth but may financial programs that promote greater access also be beneficial to encourage adaptation to to credit/loans (through insurance or micro climate change. credit schemes), developing agricultural marketing systems and training, and assisting According to the findings of Kherallah and farms with gaining access to irrigation. others (2002), while food markets have been dramatically transformed79 in some countries in The reform of agricultural markets has been Africa (such as Ethiopia, Madagascar, and promoted to induce greater efficiency. Smit and Tanzania), in others the transformation of food Skinner (2002) suggest that the review of markets has been limited (such as Malawi, agricultural subsidy and support schemes, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). The authors note that private insurance, and resource management in places where domestic markets have been practices can help reduce the risk of climate- liberalized, the outcome has been greater related losses and spread exposure to climate- competition and reduced marketing margins. 50 Environment Department Papers Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture However, Kherallah and others maintain that can bring about improvement in total factor scale of operations by traders is limited due to productivity in two ways: reducing average fixed the nominal investments that are made. While costs by increasing yields per fixed factor or poor transport infrastructure increases reducing variable costs by reducing the cost of the marketing costs and uncertainty, the authors technology itself. Most technological advances note that export marketing has generally become have elements of both types of change. In this more efficient, allowing farmers to keep a larger respect, public and private investment in share of the export price. The authors also agricultural research, and, in particular, research contend that liberalized export markets may be and extension and innovations, are important vulnerable to collusion by the small number of sources of productivity growth. exporters, particularly given the significant role that political connections play in gaining access Reilly and Hohmann (1993) highlight that the to markets. Another problem highlighted is the effectiveness of technological and institutional reluctance of agricultural traders to offer agricultural adaptations are bound by farmers inputs on credit because the farmers can socioeconomic capacity. The issue of who adopts sell to a competitor and avoid repayment. new technologies, how quickly, and at what cost is addressed in a recent paper by Gabre-Madhin There are several dangers these reforms can and others (2002). The authors highlight that one introduce (Kherallah and others 2002). The of the limitations on the adoption of new removal of price controls (through the technologies (especially in Africa) has been the curtailment of public support) can hurt some removal of government support for agricultural clusters of rural farmers (as experience in inputs. (see also Kherallah and others 2002). The Tanzania and Zambia have shown). A similar other has been increasing production (such as in finding is noted in O’Brien et al (2002). These eastern Africa), which has led to lower producer farmers are not necessarily the poor. Benefits prices and and creation of disincentives to adopt from lower marketing margins and lower food new and costly technologies by producers prices, particularly in eastern and southern Africa are cited as examples. Exchange rate Constraints to the adoption of new technologies adjustments have been beneficial to export crop in the context of climate change can be extremely producers and crops that compete with imports damaging. Such constraints can be natural, as (such as rice). The costs associated with Meertens and others (1995) warn that the eliminating fertilizer subsidies have been adoption of new technologies may be limited in proportional to the quantities of fertilizer used, areas where there is abundant land and market so larger, commercial farmers were more access is poor. Adoption of technologies can also adversely affected than marginal farmers. be constrained due to farmers’ lacking the necessary financial strength. For example, De la 4.3.3 Adoption of New Technologies Court and Verolme (1995) state that the non- The improvement of total factor productivity affordability of organic relative to chemical through the adoption of new and improved inputs is one of the main reasons for nutrient technologies has been an important means of depletion in soils on farms in dryland savannahs increasing agricultural yields. Gabre-Madhin in India. In contrast, others have also argued that and others (2002) state that technological change higher production in industrial countries could Climate Change Series 51 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations lead to increased worldwide production, thereby High tariffs on imported goods, and trade- lowering world food prices, making things even restrictive policies reduce the effectiveness of worse for developing countries (Mendelsohn and trade. The IPCC (2001) also stresses that Dinar 1999). restrictive policies can impede the entry of efficient technologies into new markets.81 4.3.4 Promotion of Trade Continuation of restrictive policies will result in That trade plays an important role during diminished global welfare. Results of Randir and periods of variable climatic conditions is already Hertel (1999) has shown that liberalization established in the literature. For example, facilitates economic adjustment to climate Rosenzweig and others (1993) stress shortfalls in change. They propose the need for reductions in crop production due to insufficient rains in the agricultural tariffs and subsidies under future late 1980s in South Asia as one of the main trade deliberations. Their results suggest that the reasons for the import of wheat into the region removal of distortions in global agricultural during that period. Similarly, research has activities is likely to improve allocative shown that trade will play an important role in efficiency in agriculture and improve aggregate enabling countries moderate the impacts of welfare provided that it is accompanied by the climate change on crop. Reilly and others (1994) removal of farm support mechanisms. suggest that agricultural trade will moderate impacts by enabling farmers in regions less While numerous studies show that trade has the adversely affected to sell their produce in areas potential to mitigate the effects of adverse more severely affected by climate change. climatic impacts, one area of research remains Rosenzweig and Hillel (1995) suggest that trade conspicuously absent. As highlighted by adjustments should shift commodity production Horowitz,82 there is little research on the impact to regions where comparative advantage of trade if climate change risks are positively improves. Darwin and others (1995) argue that correlated in major agricultural areas (such as, the competitiveness of U.S. grain producers in for example, the United States and Europe). global markets depends on world agriculture’s Although countries at similar latitudes are ability to expand into areas where temperatures expected to experience similar outcomes from now limit crop production. warming, countries at different latitudes are expected to have very different impacts Trade policy is expected to have important (Mendelsohn et al 2000). It is widely expected repercussions on the prospects for adaptation. that warming will benefit agriculture in high The general consensus to emerge is that both latitude countries and damage farming in low regional and international trade can lead to latitude countries. Further, there is every reason improvements in access to international markets, to believe that the changes in precipitation will which in turn can help a country diversify and vary across regions (IPCC 2001). reduce of risk of food shortages from climate change.80 That is, the trading system is a risk- 4.3.5 Extension Services spreading mechanism through the geographic Extension services have played a key role in relocation of world food supplies according to promoting agricultural productivity in changing comparative advantage and spatial developing countries, and their role in promoting diversification of climatic risks (Randir and various adaptations to climate change is no less Hertel 1999). 52 Environment Department Papers Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture important. For example, Mizina and others likely reasons for poor productivity. Evenson (1999) state that given regional differences in (1997), in fact, stresses that where extension climatic impacts, local experiments, as well as programs have been well designed, researchers ensuring information flows, need to be have been effective, and farmers have adequate encouraged. Traditionally, extension services schooling, the rewards can be very encouraging. have generally been in the purview of services provided by government, given that agricultural 4.3.6 Diversification of Income-Earning and research is typically a public good.83 However, Employment Opportunities private and non-governmental agencies (or the Seasonal effects and climatic uncertainty that formation of research cooperatives) do play a characterize the agricultural sector effectively significant role in some countries. According to mean that diversification of income and Evenson (1997), numerous studies, for example, employment opportunities is an important in India, Kenya, and Burkino Faso have shown adaptation strategy for households in the sector. that there is strong evidence to link extension In dryland areas, traditional practices to help services with awareness and knowledge of cope with drought include the accrual of a agricultural practices. Other studies have surplus in a superior year, in the form of cash or established a link between extension and assets (for example, cattle) for use in poorer adoption of farm practices, although farm size years (Burton 2001). While measures such as and levels of education also have a significant crop storage, sales, and household savings84 can influence. Evenson also states that there is a and do offer relief from temporary (or strong link between the extent of extension seasonality) effects, risk and market services (in terms of number of extension agents imperfections that abound in rural settings per region) and membership in extension render diversification into off-farm organizations to be a significant contributing opportunities necessary to reduce income factor to productivity. instability (Alderman and Paxson 1992). Crucially, as Evenson (1997) notes, the economic Consequently, policies that provide the contribution of extension services is governed by opportunities to pursue alternative livelihood location-specific factors. In this regard, options need to be encouraged. Ellis (1998) numerous programs have been found to be indicates that diversification into non-farm ineffective given the underperformance of income ensures low-risk correlations between agents, design limitations, and management livelihood components. It can be both a transient failures. Collier and Gunning (1999) find similar phenomenon (Saith 1992) as well as a means of problems through their study of Africa. The ensuring long-term livelihood security.85 For authors maintain that extension services in example, in Kenya, effective smallholder general in Africa have traditionally been weak. response to drought has been to shift from The authors state that extension services in East traditional planting strategies to employment Africa have tended to discount traditional diversification (Downing and others 1997. practices such as inter-cropping, which research has proved to be an effective buffer against Income diversification in agriculture is not climatic impacts. Poor incentives for extension restricted to poor developing economies. Skinner workers and organizational failures are cited as and others (2001) stress that household income Climate Change Series 53 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations diversification strategies were an important society, not just policy makers. A key role for adaptation option among farmers in Canada (see state, society, and media is envisioned through also Brklacich and others (1997); Smithers and both horizontal and vertical exchanges of Smit (1997); de Loe and others 1999). Frequently, information through regular meetings with key income diversification among farmers involved stakeholders. livestock ownership, but also off-farm activities, such as trading home-produced goods or While some countries do have resource providing services (Bryant, 1989). Diversification constraints on collecting and disseminating of household incomes is likely to be undertaken reliable data, evidence suggests that lack of data in response to a number of factors (such as may not be the only problem. With both science availability of alternative employment and technology making vast contributions to opportunities and prospects for seeking and improving water use efficiency and drought- obtaining new opportunities) as opposed to tolerant cultivars, the real problem, it is argued, climatic perturbations alone (IPCC 2001). is the lack of application of existing knowledge (Burton 2001). This is due to poor distribution of In order to ensure that diversification of income- knowledge or, when it is available, the earning and employment opportunities is a information is not in a form that is usable. realistic alternative for rural farmers, certain Burton identifies the failure to apply knowledge prerequisites need to be fulfilled. In some that conflicts with traditional practices, social instances, private initiatives and expectations and legal conventions, and the existing power will suffice, but other cases will require public structures within communities and nations. support. In particular, training, information Skepticism toward seasonal forecast information dissemination, and support services will require has, in some instances, led to inaction on the some public organization, resources, and information provided. institutional support. 4.3.8 Institutional Planning and 4.3.7 Dissemination of Climate Data Implementation A reason frequently cited for not adapting in Insufficient institutional and decisionmaking time to climatic impacts is the lack of reliable structures to support long-term planning in climate monitoring and forecasting data. In a central governments in developing countries has paper that investigates the effect of scientific long been recognized to be a problem in pursuing uncertainty on planning for climate change, general development objectives (see for example Barnett (2001) argues that an increase in the Hernes and others 1995; O’Riordan and Jordan availability of information to understand the 1999). A recent World Bank report underscored biophysical and social environment is necessary. the finding that in some countries, such as The timely dissemination of climate forecasting Bangladesh, planning for climate change is not information and early warning to farmers even mandatory, an outcome of planning (including information on risks) can strengthen agencies’ being “formed not by law but by the ability of farmers to cope and optimize the administrative resolution� (World Bank 2000). management of hydrological variability and Under such extreme circumstances, not change.86 Monitoring data and indicators of uncommon in many other developing country change are also necessary across all sectors in settings, it makes little sense to discuss 54 Environment Department Papers Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture adaptation options to reduce long-term to support existing policies, would reap vulnerability until the necessary underlying substantial benefits. Other factors that will assist conditions, such as institutional support, are first adaptation, and which may not require new met. Further, Rosenzweig and Hillel (1995) draw frameworks, include improving organizational attention to the fact that some agricultural capacity, responsibility, and operational institutions and policies can discourage farm effectiveness of current institutions; integrating management adaptation strategies, such as national, regional, and local actions; and changing crop mix. Weak and underdeveloped technology and infrastructure development and land-use control and physical planning functions adoption. increase vulnerability, and bureaucratic inefficiencies can restrict the effectiveness of IPCC (2001) underline that strengthening institutional systems that do exist, rendering adaptive capacity requires integrated even the most basic attempts to plan and management practices to be in places where implement a major problem. management institutions are weak, and they need to fit specific institutional settings. Institutional reforms, with the participation of Adaptation must also be addressed on a country- key stakeholders, is therefore essential to by-country basis, taking into account local enhance adaptations to both short- and long- environmental, political, economic, and social term climate impacts. The relative success in conditions. Coordination failures between adapting to possible changes will depend on the central and local governments need to be type of institutional changes that occur, where rectified, and sectoral management plans need to they occur, and on timely and appropriate be overhauled by multisectoral management investments in adequate adaptation strategies. plans so that linkages with other major sectors in For example, Stakhiv (1998) asserts, with the economy affected by or enabling adaptation reference to the management of water, that not are taken into account.87 The preparation of such only are well-functioning institutions in sectors comprehensive development plans, as well as the such as hydrology and meteorology essential, but review and upgrading of current physical they need to be supported by equally well- planning laws and regulations,88 will be an functioning institutions in other sectors that important step toward catalyzing the requisite provide information on the changing institutional change to facilitate adaptations. In socioeconomic structure, demographics, short, climate change management plans need to technology, and public preferences. incorporate the participation of all tiers of government, as well as private and civil society. Previous studies (Smith 1997; World Bank 2000) have highlighted that in some cases, it is Additional considerations need to be taken into necessary to first assess whether current growth account. Smith and Lenhart (1996) declare that policies and programs can facilitate adaptation. adaptation must be resilient to meet stated It may be necessary to formulate a new objectives given a range of future climate institutional framework to deal with climate scenarios with potential to produce benefits that change. For example, improvements in outweigh costs (including financial, physical, institutional capacity to administer and regulate human terms or otherwise). Similarly, O’Brien environmental issues, including more resources (2000) argues that adaptation needs to satisfy Climate Change Series 55 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations multiple criteria, including flexibility to suit a O’Brien and others (2000) outline, with respect to range of likely impacts; feasibility given political adaptation to climate change in Antigua and and socioeconomic and institutional realities; Barbuda, that a comprehensive coastal area and economic affordability. Mizina and others management plan is required. The plan, the (1999) stress that adaptation measures should be authors contend, should cover items that range assessed in terms of their cost-effectiveness from improving the employing technology rather than cost-benefit ratios.89 According to options to reduce vulnerability to weather Mizina and others, this would enable an extremes, to the development of technical evaluation of the various measures for their (a) capabilities in agriculture and fisheries effectiveness in reducing risks of damage from management,92 to concurrent public health climate change; and (b) social, technical, and programs on controlling dengue and other institutional feasibility. Finally, adaptation vector-borne diseases. measures to climate change cannot be considered in isolation, but relative to the impacts of other In many countries resolving socioeconomic and exogenous sectoral changes. In short, the key environmental issues is an important means of lesson to emerge is that the prioritization of addressing climate change impacts.93 A stable appropriate adaptation measures needs to be macroeconomic environment, progress in taming contextual and fit the capacity of local corruption, and stronger legal infrastructure for institutional and legal frameworks.90 stimulating domestic and international investment, including that in the agricultural For example, in the case of water, agriculture, sector, have been highlighted as necessary and adaptations to climate change, Benioff (Kherallah and others 2002). In addition, (1996) in Smith and others (1996) outlines changes in international and domestic several measures, including the development of competition laws need to be implemented to comprehensive river basin, lake, or reservoir ensure viable competitive technology markets, management plans, as well as the improvements in the flow of technological implementation of water conservation plans. The information, and technical capacity building. latter include demand-side management measures such as pricing incentives (for Moreover, the necessary institutional reforms example, adjusting water prices to reflect the full need to be supported by appropriate social cost of recovery), and improving regulations and policies. For example, many countries have technology standards. Other options include experienced difficulty in adjusting water prices, developing new water supplies, encouraging the or subsidies that support various agricultural combined use of ground and surface water in inputs that are aimed at improving allocative or addition to rainwater, recycling, increasing use efficiency. While many reasons have capacity to transfer water between and within contributed (including the pursuit of short-term river basins, improving flood protection objectives, persistence with the continuation of schemes, developing storage capacity, enhancing traditional practices) the existence of such and executing drought response planning perverse incentives has continued long enough programs,91 and, in general, public education that they are now institutionalized. Citizens programs focusing on adapting to climate often view free water and affordable agricultural change in agriculture. inputs as an inalienable right. Although 56 Environment Department Papers Typology of Adaptations in Agriculture arguments can be made both ways, it is also clear devised to provide a credible safety net for that the current economic realities of many households adversely affected by the reforms. As developing countries rarely allow such support Kherallah and others (2002) argue, governments schemes without aggravating other economic need to reverse declining investments in other problems such as inefficiency (due to the areas, such as agricultural research and continual dependency on state support, often extension; improve transport infrastructure; worsening national deficits). There is no doubt promote the sustainable use of natural resources; that some difficult choices need to be made to and develop public services such as market help countries overcome past social norms and information, plant protection, and disease expectations. Adjustments need to reflect lessons control. Such programs are justifiable on their that have emerged from previous structural own terms as well as for the political adjustment policies. Changes need to be dynamic sustainability of the necessary reforms. and complementary; social programs need to be Climate Change Series 57 5 Matrix of Adaptations Adaptations Options in Agriculture to Climate Change and Variability Necessary Adaptation option: Purpose supporting policies Other prerequisites Limitations Short term Crop Insurance Private/public programs Enabling improved Improving access Synergies between govt. Risk averse communities/ risk coverage and private sector in insufficient collateral bearing risks Formal/informal schemes Risk management through Minimizing information High opportunity costs of risk reduction and risk asymmetries public funds sharing Improving supervisory Establishing enforcement High monitoring costs capacity mechanisms (institutional limitations) Revising pricing incentives Introducing measures for Adverse selection/moral the correct estimation of hazard premiums Improving affordability/ Innovative schemes should Need to establish well- availability of coverage for be pursued (e.g. tradable functioning producer catastrophes financial assets; organizations catastrophic bonds; weather markets Portfolio (Crop/Livestock) Diversification Replacement of plant Risk-spreading/ Availability of extension Tenure reform to ensure Traditions, lack of awareness, types, cultivars, hybrids promoting farm-level services property rights are and other limitations (high and animal breeds with risk management established opportunity costs) may new varieties dampen willingness to diversify Alternative production Increasing Financial support/ Land-use regulations need Over-dependence on techniques (adjustment of productivity alternatives should be to be reviewed to enable government support capital and labor inputs) provided by private and diversification mechanisms needs to be public sector reduced Multi-cropping Defending against Enable mobility of Education/training/ Need alternatives that disease, pest activities extension services need to maintain quantity and income be provided from production Mixed farming systems of Remove subsidies on crops and livestock certain crops/livestock production not conducive to changed climatic and resource conditions Adjusting Timing of Farm Operations Adjusting cropping Reducing risks of Extension services/training Mechanisms for the Investment in collection of sequence crop damage/ is necessary dissemination of climate data and disseminating maximizing output in agronomic and climate information required light of new information conditions Adjusting timing of Pricing policies have to be Institutional support must Limitations of existing irrigation reviewed be strengthened infrastructure Climate Change Series 59 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations Necessary Adaptation option: Purpose supporting policies Other prerequisites Limitations Changing Cropping Intensity Adjusting fertilizer and Improving moisture Extension services must Location-specific solutions Availability of cultivable land; other inputs and nutrient be improved should be sought availability of alternative lands retention Changing land use Reducing soil erosion Pricing policy adjustments Socioeconomic (financial) practices for incentives to making adjustments Changing location of Adjusting to changing Conflicts with other farm crop/livestock production length of growing operations at other times of season the year Rotating or shifting Increasing plant Traditions, lack of awareness, production between protection and other limitations (high crops and livestock opportunity costs) may dampen willingness to diversify Abandonment of land Concerns regarding maintaining similar production levels Changing the timing of activities (of sowing, planting, spraying and harvesting) Changing the timing of irrigation Livestock Management Change in biological Spreading risks; Provision of extension Promoting investment in Tradition s, lack of awareness diversity, species increasing services livestock management and other limitations (high productivity opportunity costs) may dampen willingness to diversify Altering the breeding Adjusting to new Institutional support management program climate conditions (i.e., changing composition, or species distribution) Change in grazing management (timing, duration, and location) Changing the location of watering points Changes in rangeland management practices Modifying operation production strategies Changing market strategies Implementing feed conservation techniques/ varying supplemental feeding 60 Environment Department Papers Matrix of Adaptations Necessary Adaptation option: Purpose supporting policies Other prerequisites Limitations Changes in Tillage x Practices (Conservation Tillage) Land contouring and Conserving soil Extension services need to Investment terracing moisture and organic support activities carbon contents and increased soil erosion maintain soil fertility and prevent erosion (nutrient management) Maintaining crop residues Maintaining soil Pricing incentives to Land tenure reform quality/provide promote conservation protection against wind erosion Fallow and tillage Increasing Indigenous knowledge practices production per unit of evapotranspiration Planting of hedges Reducing water run- off/improving water uptake Alternative drainage Recharging water methods supply Construction of Reducing runoff and diversions and reservoirs erosion and water storage Irrigation Nutrient restocking Reducing water use in Conserving water land preparation Temporary Migration Risk diversification Employment Institutional support Availability of employment strategy to withstand training/opportunities opportunities in urban areas; climate shocks and growth elsewhere in economy seasonal effects Skills and earnings potential High population density in cities Short-Term Forecas ts Improve preparation Institutional support for Infrastructure for Financial resources constraints for medium-term collection and monitoring climatic impacts dissemination, information dissemination Food Reserves and Temporary relief Delivery mechanisms Expensive/complacency Storage Climate Change Series 61 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations Necessary Adaptation option: Purpose supporting policies Other prerequisites Limitations Changing Crop Mix Adopting new crops Spreading risk of Revising pricing; food Promoting investment Institutional failures damage importation policy Planting in different part Move away from Tenure; extension; pricing Institutional support to Acceptance of change gradual of farm unstable cash crop incentives administer systems Converting land use Improving access and Agricultural marketing Economic failures (maintaining affordability policies incomes) Need viable alternatives Review of agricultural Knowledge (incomes) credit schemes Irrigation Increase Investment by public and Clear water management Institutional support and productivity; private sectors policy enforcement mechanisms withstand rainwater shortages Modernization of Farm Operations Increase productivity Promoting the adoption of Establishment of Conflicts between technological innovations intellectual property rights national/private objectives Research and Withstanding climate Role of private Maintaining similar production development (biological effects multinationals levels and mechanical options) Adoption of technology Subsidization programs may (e.g., use of sprinklers) create perverse incentives Permanent Migration Diversify income- Education and training for Institutional support Impacts on resource base earning opportunities alternative opportunities (property rights) To overcome long Retraining Land pressure lasting climate impacts Defining Landuse and Tenure Rights Incentives to make Legal reform and necessary enforcement investments in agricultural land to withstand climatic impacts 62 Environment Department Papers Matrix of Adaptations Necessary Adaptation option: Purpose supporting policies Other prerequisites Limitations Efficient Water Use Improving water Water conservation Pricing reforms for water Sustainable water projects distribution Promoting irrigation Avoid salinization; Clearly defined property Diffusion of technological Cost efficiency increase in moisture rights advances in water retention management Changing crop and Water storage and Develop open markets Institutional reforms Competing demands irrigation schedules flood control Water recycling and the Strengthening farm level Financial crises conjunctive use of managerial capacity groundwater Rehabilitation and Low-cost recovery of the modernization investment in the water system Political economy issues Both short and long term Investment Promotion Overcome financial Property rights; designing Social constraints against limitations to adapt innovating financial tools capital accumulation Injection of initial capital Reluctance of agricultural traders to offer inputs on credit Develop Market Efficiency Pricing reform Promote more Remove barriers Institutional support efficient use of resources Develop open markets Property rights; pricing The establishment of Poor transport infrastructure policy regional consultation centers Reform of agricultural Adjustment of agriculture Impart knowledge on markets input subsidies that adaptation alternatives constrain adaptation Land use regulations Legislative reform Adoption of Increasing Pricing incentives/ tax Community management Natural constraints- if land is Technological and Other agricultural yields reform and cooperation programs available Adaptation Measures Reducing average Extension services for Socioeconomic capacity to fixed costs training adapt Reducing variable Finance schemes Complete removal of costs government support Lower producer prices Lower world food prices Attitudes towards risk Level of uncertainty of the future Availability of funds for investment Access to assets, capital, and credit High tariffs in export markets Climate Change Series 63 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations Necessary Adaptation option: Purpose supporting policies Other prerequisites Limitations Promoting Trade Promoting economic growth Strengthening long- Pricing and exchange rate Social policy Subsidies in developed term food supply and reform and stabilization markets production limitations Reducing risks of Adjustment of agricultural food shortages subsidies and tariffs Developing Extension Services Improve agricultural Role of private, non- Ensure agents are productivity governmental and productive through cooperative agencies adequate incentives Improve awareness Ensuring sufficient agents Limit/remove and knowledge of per farmer/region management failures measures Public organization, resources, and institutional support Utilize indigenous knowledge Improving Forecasting Mechanisms Assist planning Extension Information needs to be Financial distributed across all sectors Strengthen ability of Institutional support (e.g. Horizontal and vertical Conflicts with traditional to cope establishment of farmer exchanges of information practices/ cooperatives to spread social conventions knowledge) Ensure information is in a Skepticism usable form Institutional Strengthening and Decision-making Structures To support long Reform existing Participation of key term planning institutions that support stakeholders agricultural sector Reduce vulnerability Pricing incentives; Requires integrated Planning agencies formed by improving regulations and management practices; administrative resolution as technology standards need to fit specific opposed to being mandatory institutional settings Provide information Legal infrastructure Comprehensive multi- on the changing (reform) for stimulating sectoral management socioeconomic domestic and international plans structure, investment demographics, technology, and public preferences Improving Changes in international Resilience; flexibility; organization and domestic competition public education program capacity, responsibility and operational effectiveness Social policies Remove bureaucratic inefficiencies 64 Environment Department Papers Matrix of Adaptations Necessary Adaptation option: Purpose supporting policies Other prerequisites Limitations Upgrading of current Equally well functioning physical planning laws and institutions in other regulations sectors Improve coordination between central and local government Climate Change Series 65 Conclusions and 6 the Way Forward A growing literature suggests that while climate It is thus essential that there is increased mitigation strategies are necessary, that alone is recognition by governments in developing unlikely to be sufficient as a climate policy. countries of the impeding threats of climate Because global mitigation measures are unlikely change on their agricultural sector. Results from to keep climate constant, every country must also scientific and economic studies of likely impacts examine how they will adapt to the changes that on agriculture in developing countries must be will occur. Each country must examine how they disseminated with increased urgency, and can reduce their vulnerability to climate change political awareness must be raised to confront and increase desirable outcomes. Some degree of the main issues. It is essential that steps be taken climate change will have to be confronted by the to support farmers and households engaged in agriculture sectors across developing countries the agricultural sector to cope with both the thereby rendering adaptation imperative. threat of climate variability as well as the challenges that climate change will pose on Diverse and location-specific impacts on future livelihood opportunities. Consequently, agricultural production are anticipated. While simultaneous to international efforts to mitigate the global agricultural supply is likely to be robust emissions of greenhouse gases, pursuing a in the face of moderate climate change, severe complementary strategy at the national and local regional variation is expected. While temperate levels of enabling the agriculture sector to adapt and polar regions stand to gain relatively in terms to climate variability and change and negate of agricultural productivity, developing countries many of the expected adverse impacts is equally, in tropical regions are expected to be the worst- if not more, urgent. affected from climate change, suffering significant agricultural production losses. Many A host of recent impact studies show that of these countries are also currently under severe reducing vulnerability to climate change by economic and ecological stress. Climate change is strengthening the adaptive capacity of the expected to push the agricultural sectors in these agricultural sector can reap substantial benefits. countries into further hardship. In particular, the Several key themes emerge from the review. stress is likely to be over and beyond that caused • Given the range of current vulnerability and by the traditional economic, political, social, and diversity of expected impacts, there is no institutional imperfections that currently affect single recommended formula for adaptation. the agricultural sector. Moreover, it will increase Instead, increasing adaptive capacity of the the incidence of poverty in rural areas given the agricultural sector will require a host of high dependency on the agricultural sector for complementary measures. Suitable strategies rural livelihood opportunities. Climate Change Series 67 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations will have to be specific to local conditions, • Policymakers need to acknowledge that including economic, political, and social limiting non-climate-change stress on the realities, and reflect institutional and legal agricultural sector will also increase the capacity and national development goals. resilience of key stakeholders to climate • Policies to promote adaptation to climate variability and change. Successful variability need to be undertaken today. If adaptation is unlikely without also society is to deal with climate change addressing wide-ranging problems that effectively, the necessary policies to adapt to make the agricultural sectors vulnerable in climate change should be implemented in a the first place. dynamic way as climate change unfolds. • While the poor can adapt, it will not be • Distinction must also be made between costless given that as a group, more effort adapting to extreme events to prevent and a considerable proportion of per capita disaster versus adapting to persistent income will be required to adapt. There is changes. That is, a different set of solutions therefore a need to simultaneously address will be necessary to address climate underlying causes of poverty, vulnerability, variability and climate change concerns development, and to tackle displacement, respectively. While in some cases, measures division, and degradation issues (Kates will reinforce each other, more often they 2000). will not. Many policies aimed at reducing vulnerability to short-term climate variation This paper has revealed that there is a wealth of will not reduce vulnerability to long-term knowledge of a range of measures that can help climate change. At the same time, the agricultural sector in developing countries adaptations that help reduce long-term become more resilient to climate vulnerabilities. susceptibility to climate change impacts will Some measures, implemented at the farm level, not alleviate short-term vulnerabilities. are aimed at reducing vulnerabilities to climate • Responsibility for adaptations will be in the variability. These include, essentially, risk hands of private individuals as well as diversification strategies such as crop government. Private agents motivated by diversification, changes in intensity of self-interest and underlying welfare- production, nutrient and pest management maximizing objectives will undertake some programs, insurance schemes, food storage, types of adaptations. That is, adaptation forecasting and disseminating climate measures will be undertaken for private gain information, and temporary migration in search and these will be undertaken by the market of off-farm employment opportunities. However, without new public policy. Some while effective in the short term, they are likely adaptations will require coordinated to be insufficient for coping with the threats of responses across many agents. In light of climate change in the longer term. Accordingly, high information requirements, equity there is also a need to pursue a different set of considerations, and other externalities strategies aimed at reducing long-term associated with adaptation, government- vulnerability. The range of options in this regard sponsored adaptive measures will be includes changing the crop mix, improving necessary. water management, adopting and utilizing new technologies (that is, modernization of the 68 Environment Department Papers Matrix of Adaptations agricultural sector), and migrating permanently structures are imperative. Other measures will away from unviable agricultural areas. necessitate micro level approaches to encourage the adoption of new technologies, develop The literature also suggests that it is necessary to extension services, and improve access to credit overcome factors that contribute to vulnerability in agriculture in rural areas; to increase regardless of the temporal dimension of climate opportunities to diversify income-earning and change. In particular, low per capita income, employment opportunities; and the effective high dependency on subsistence agriculture and dissemination of climate data and development natural resources, weak governmental and of early warning systems. In some cases these institutional capacity, prevalence of preventable policies will reinforce each other. In other cases, and non-preventable diseases, high incidence of there will be competition, and the success of armed conflict, and dependence on aid have policy will depend on their design and the been identified as issues that make economic existence of institutions to support their development and growth challenging (Desanker, implementation. 2002). These, as well as other reasons, such as The adoption of many of these measures is of insufficient investment in infrastructure and importance for reasons other than climate. That social capital (relative to growth potential), lack is, they are necessary for the pursuit of of openness to trade, deficient public services, sustainable development. The pursuit of such and inconsistent government policies (Collier “no-regrets� options through an interdiscipli- and Gunning 1999), are also likely to increase nary approach is fundamental to strengthening the agricultural sector’s vulnerability to climate the capacity of the agricultural sector to adapt to change. This paper highlighted that, in response, climate change. a suite of strategies, preferably through government intervention, should be adopted While the menu of adaptation options presented regardless of the temporal dimension of climate in this review is extensive, it need not necessarily change. In this regard, research has shown that be overwhelming to policymakers. In the short economic, institutional, political, and social run, adaptation options need to reflect what is factors are likely to play an important role in known currently about climate conditions. In enabling the agricultural sector to adapt to contrast, in the long term, national and sectoral climate change. In particular, institutional policy and assistance provided by international strengthening through improved organization, agencies to developing countries should reflect managerial capacity, and development of expected impacts from climate change. The adequate legal frameworks are imperative. attention of policymakers should then be on Macro level measures will be necessary not only prioritizing, formulating, and implementing to promote the accumulation of capital but also policies that promote adaptation based on site- to direct investment in areas that reduce specific conditions. In this respect, three key vulnerability to climate impacts. In addition, lessons emerge. First, incentives need to be agricultural price reform (such as the removal of formulated and incorporated into project distortionary subsidies in industrial countries as designs. Second, it is also clear that dynamic well as elsewhere) and the development of open adaptation needs to be promoted, as it is unlikely markets, promotion of increased trade, and that there will be one solution to address climate improvement in institutional planning and concerns. Finally, it is not necessary that an Climate Change Series 69 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations entirely new and alternative suite of policies be adaptation policies are appropriately designed to address climate concerns. Evidence incorporated into poverty reduction and other is abound of the numerous measures that can sustainable development policies in order to address various climate concerns. It is important, enhance the resiliency of the poor. however, that incentives that promote 70 Environment Department Papers Notes 1. P. Kurukulasuriya and S. Rosenthal are removing maladaptive policies and other ad hoc doctoral students at the Yale University’s practices that otherwise increase vulnerability; School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. and (vi) must grasp the opportunities that 2. Downing (1993); Mendelsohn, Dinar and climate change will bring. Sanghi (1998); Mendelsohn and Neumann 9. It has been estimated that a doubling of CO2 (1998); Mendelsohn and Schlesinger (1999); (relative to 1880 levels) will force an increase in Mendelsohn and others (1999); Cline and global average surface temperature of 1.5-4.5 Rosegrant (2002). degrees C by 2060 (IPCC, 1990). More recently, 3. Darwin and others (1995) links agricultural estimates have ranged from 1.0-3.5 degrees C productivity of land to a CGE model of the by 2100 (IPCC, 1996). world economy to arrive at this estimate. 10. In addition to the usual operational decisions 4. Comment made by Sachs at a invitational that have to be made regarding inputs, lecture on “Mobilizing Science for Sustainable outputs, and technologies, farmers also need to Energy Systems� at the School of Forestry and also consider when they will make changes, Environmental Studies, Yale University, on contingent on uncertain climate effects. January 29, 2003. 11. See Rosenzweig and Liverman (1992) who 5. GSM Models (GFDL, GISS, UKMO) tested three discuss the biophysical response of agriculture climate change scenarios, including increments crops in light of interactions with thermal of 4, 4.3, and 5.2 degree Celsius respectively, regimes, changes in hydrological regimes, and change in global precipitation of 8, 11, and physiological effects (CO2), soils, and pests. 15 percent respectively. See also, Rosenzweig and Hillel (1995). 6. According to WRI (1998) estimates cited in 12. This includes primarily changes in the length of IPCC (2001), countries in the Organization for time that soil temperature and moisture Economic Cooperation and Development conditions are most appropriate for crop (OECD) depend on agriculture for about 2-3 growth (Darwin 2001). percent of annual GDP while African countries 13. Warmer temperatures are likely to adversely generate 5-58 percent (similar evidence is cited affect soil nutrients and organic matter through in World Bank 1994). microbial decomposition. 7. Different adaptation strategies can lead to 14. Plants are classified as C3, C4, or CAM according different levels of greenhouse gas emissions to the products formed in the initial phases of and therefore mitigation options will also be photosynthesis. C3 species respond more to affected. increased CO2; C4 species respond better than 8. Burton (1996) outlines six reasons including (i) C3 plants to higher temperature, and their climate change cannot be entirely avoided; (ii) water-use efficiency increases more than for C3 anticipatory adaptation is less costly than plants. C3 plants: cotton, rice, wheat, barley, forced adaptations after impacts are realized; soybeans, sunflower, potatoes, most leguminous (iii) unexpected events are possible given that and woody plants, most horticultural crops and climate change can be more rapid than many weeds. C4 plants: maize, sorghum, expected; (iv) immediate benefits from sugarcane, millets, halophytes (that is, salt- adapting to extreme events and variability of tolerant plants) and many tall tropical grasses, climate; (v) there can be substantial gains from pasture, forage, and weed species. CAM plants Climate Change Series 71 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations (Crassulacean Acid Metabolism, an optional C3 country’s macro-economy, agronomy, water or C4 pathway of photosynthesis, depending on resources and land resources. conditions): cassava, pineapple, onions, castor 27. Not only is the Nile a source for most water, but (from Sombroek and Gommes, 1996). a large proportion of the arable land 15. Moreover, other fossil fuel emissions such as (predominantly in the deltaic region) is sulfur dioxide and ozone are likely to negate vulnerable to sea level rise. some of the beneficial impacts of carbon 28. Holdridge (1947) formulated a life zone dioxide effects. classification to capture the complexities of 16. Personal communication during review of tropical vegetation. Zones are defined paper. according to “biotemperature�—that is, all 17. Oceanic-atmospheric interactions in the Indian temperatures above freezing, with all Ocean and southern Atlantic are also seen as temperatures below freezing adjusted to 0° C. important influences on rainfall patterns in The assumption, based on plant physiology, is southern Africa. that there is no real difference between 0° C and temperatures less than zero, as within this 18. The models effectively held farmer behavior range, plants are dormant. The life zones are constant despite the different simulated thus defined based on a climatic variable— environment that they operated in. degrees mean annual biotemperature and not 19. That is, estimates have been based on results according to degrees latitude or meters of from carefully controlled agronomic elevation (Woodward, 1996). experiments that assumed hypothetical 29. Based on two different GCMs (the Hadley responses Adams and others (1989; 1990; 1993; Centre (HadCM2) and the Canadian Climate 1999); Easterling and others (1993); Kaiser and Center) models. others (1993a; 1993b); Rosenzweig and Parry (1994); Kumar and Parikh (1998). 30. The prediction of precipitation changes are inherently more difficult than predictions of 20. The argument is that rising temperatures, and future temperature. changes in the frequency and extent of precipitation are likely to make agricultural 31. In their model, Mendelsohn and others, (1994) areas in these marginal areas in developing include the economic effects of farm-level countries unsurprisingly even less productive. adaptation without having to enumerate specific adjustments. 21. That is, in terms of total costs and total revenue of agriculture production. 32. See Lewandrowski and Schimmelpfenning (1999) for an excellent summary of the findings 22. The case studies cited are adapted from http:// of climate change impacts on U.S. agriculture. www.ccasia.teri.res.in/country/india/impacts. 33. Etterson and Shaw (2001) discuss constraints to 23. Government of Zimbabwe (1998) Initial adaptive evolution in response to global Communication on Climate Change, prepared in warming with respect to plant migration and accordance with the UN Framework adaptation. Convention on Climate Change. 34. In line with IPCC (1996; 2001), as well as Carter 24. Results for Zimbabwe are based on an analysis and others (1994), UNEP (1998), Smit and of the suitability of various agro-ecological others (2000) and Smit and Pilifosova (2001) zones for maize production, using the same adaptations in this paper also refers to CERES-Maize model that is widely used adjustments that are intentionally made in among African counties (referred to in agriculture systems in response to expected publications by Makadho (1996) and Muchena climatic conditions and impacts. (1994)). 35. See Hay (2002) for study on Pacific Islands and 25. The report, however, notes that the research Deeb (2002), who focuses on the Caribbean, does not take account of the effects of CO2 and Huq, (2002) who looks at Bangladesh for enrichment. case studies on adaptations to climate change. 26. The research builds on work reported in 36. Based on new research using the Ricardian Strzepek and others (1996) using a approach. The analysis is undertaken at the mathematical model of Egypt’s agricultural county level in the United States, district level sector together with an earlier study of the in India, and municipal level in Brazil. 72 Environment Department Papers References 37. Based on personal communication from (2001) provide the results of a survey of the Horowitz regarding recent (unpublished) literature on the experiences of agriculture in research by Horowitz and Quiggin (2003). the European Union. Schimmelpfenning and 38. Climate variability could also be the forerunner others (1996) similarly review the implications of longer term changes in climate means of adaptations in the United States. Clearly, the (Qunying and Lin 1999). inventory presented here is meant as an overview of the spectrum of primary response 39. For example, although major infrastructure strategies that have been highlighted. works are expected to last a substantial period, not including the possibility of climate impacts 47. Dolan and others (2001) indicate that adaptation in the design stages could undermine their options can be categorized by their timing overall performance and cast doubt on the (reactive, concurrent, or anticipatory), or effectiveness of long-term investment decisions temporal scope (short- versus long-term). (Klein and Tol (1997). 48. See also Reilly (1995); Erda (1996); Iglesias and 40. For example, changing the adaptive capacity of others (1996); Reilly and others (1996); an agriculture system or facilitating particular Downing and others (1997); Parry and others adaptations to climate change. (2000). 41. Public adaptation has the characteristics of a 49. That is, by ensuring that that irregular damages “public good� as defined by Samuelson (1954). to one crop/livestock can be buffered by the production of other crops/livestock not affected 42. For example, poor and landless households are by the same problems. often constrained in their ability to adapt, which in turn can be costly (in terms of increasingly 50. Morgan (1995) provides a review of the use of their vulnerability to displacement, morbidity, conservation techniques to mitigate soil mortality, and deprivation). Moreover, in erosion. contrast to commercial farmers, subsistence 51. Rosenberg (1981); Dumanski and others (1986); farmers do not have as wide a portfolio of Lewandrowski and Brazee (1993); Reilly (1995); adaptation options, which can be due to a Rosenzweig and Hillel (1995); Benioff and variety of reasons; perhaps the most important others (1996); Downing and others (1997); Erda is access to financing. (1996); Easterling, (1996); Reilly and others 43. For example, multiple users of water will (1996); Parry and others (1998); Adams and necessitate any water supply adaptations to others (1999); Metz and others (2000); Parry and involve landowners, private traders, local others (2000). authorities, water dependent businesses, 52. See section 4.2.4. national governments, and international 53. For example, excessive population growth, organizations. education and training, employment 44. For instance, if there are high information costs opportunities, income differentials, political to undertake forecasting and identifying and other freedoms, communication and patterns on impacts across diverse regions, or transportation, urbanization, and climate inequitable distribution of wealth and access to conditions. credit, private adaptation may not only be 54. In economics research, the classic migration inefficient but may not be just (Esty and model is that introduced by Todaro (1969) and Mendelsohn,1998). Harris and Todaro (1970); see Bardhan and 45. However, given political influences on Udry (1999). government policy, it is not obvious that even 55. The climate relationship between equatorial efficient levels of public adaptation will be Africa and subtropical southern Africa is found undertaken. to be inverse. 46. There have been numerous attempts to present 56. For example, Meze-Hausken (2000) suggests a typology of adaptation measures to climate that the treatment of the environment- change in agriculture, but few have focused on migration relationship has often been based on developing countries. For example, Skinner Malthusian arguments. and others. (2001) and Dolan and others (2001) present reviews of adaptation options in 57. Goria (1999) discusses direct effects, such as Canadian agriculture. Abildtrup and Gylling the availability and access to natural resources, Climate Change Series 73 Climate Change and Agriculture — A Review of Impacts and Adaptations and indirect effects, where climate factors have initiatives are unlikely to be attractive given a significant influence on income, as factors that the timeframe for realizing benefits is often which can induce migration. too long. 58. Examples from Canada include the Dairy 70. Based on irrigation system efficiency and field Subsidization Program, the Agricultural application efficiency. Income Disaster Assistance Program, and the 71. See World Bank (1993) Policy Paper, Water Net Income Stabilization Account. Resources Management. 59. Insurance cover is provided for the sum insured 72. Including deciding which fields to irrigate and or the market value of the animal at the time of when and how much irrigation is necessary death, whichever is less (GOI 1997). given that over-irrigation can have negative 60. Studies by Skees and others (1999), Skees effects on quantitative and qualitative yield. (1999); and Skees (2001) are cited in support of 73. Based on the review of publications, including the finding that there are few crop insurance integrated regional and national economic programs without government subsidization. impacts studies of climate change (Rosenberg 61. Issues concerning adverse selection and moral (1993), Frederick and Rosenberg (1994) and hazard are well recognized in the case of Yates and Strzepek (1996)) and river basin and insurance. urban areas studies (Kaczmarek and 62. Studies by Gautum and others (1994); Sakurai Napiorkowski (1996), Stakhiv (1996), Boland and Reardon (1997); Skees, Hazell and Miranda (1997), Hobbs and others (1997), Georgakakos (1999); and Skees (2000). and others (1998), Lettenmaier and others (1999)). 63. In contrast, existing climate variation and severe events warrant a response today. 74. For example, compromising indigenous management practices in those areas with an 64. A concurrent crucial measure is the development influx of migrants. of seed banks (Benioff and others (1996); Easterling (1996); Mizina and others (1999) and 75. Other factors, such as gender bias in the ability promotion of extension services to diffuse new to make a decision to change a farming practice knowledge among local farmers. can also be a limitation. 65. See also Kaiser and others (1993); Reilly (1995); 76. For example, purchasing seeds, transportation, Iglesias and others (1996); Benioff and others draft power (animals), hiring temporary (1996); El-Shaer and others (1996); Erda, (1996); workers, and expanding land under Easterling (1996); Reilly and others (1996); cultivation. Schimmelpfenning and others (1996); Downing 77. The underdeveloped state of formal rural and others (1997); Parry and others (2000); credit markets in Africa has been highlighted Mortimore and Williams (2000). in numerous studies such as Collier and 66. The literature makes a distinction between Gunning (1999). technological innovations available currently 78. Since the 1980s, reform programs across a and those that are necessary but should be number of African countries have aimed to made available in the future to address climate eliminate price controls on agricultural change. commodities, privatize state farms and state- 67. In a recent article in Science, it was highlighted owned enterprises, reduce taxation of that field experiments in India found that agricultural exports, phase out subsidies on genetically modified cotton crops designed to fertilizer and other inputs, and allow greater resist insects have produced dramatically competition in agricultural markets. Results increased yields (Quaim and Zilberman (2003). overall have been mixed. The authors suggest that evidence exists of improvements in market 68. Especially with reference to enabling countries efficiency, reduction in budget deficits, to achieve self-sufficiency in cereal grains in increments in exports, and higher farmgate the face of rapid population growth. prices. At the same time, there is also evidence 69. Given the public good nature of research of this of agriculture price instability, widening of the type and the need to disseminate results income distribution gap, and impediments that widely, government intervention is also likely plague access to inputs. to be necessary. In addition, private research 74 Environment Department Papers References 79. Albeit the pace and extent of market reforms (agriculture, forestry, urban, energy, have varied across countries in the continent. ecosystems, and so forth). 80. There are additional benefits. As You (2001) 88. While admittedly these recommendations are states with reference to China, imports can help made with reference to adaptation in Antigua meet shortages in local supply of food, but and Barbuda, it is easy to see that they are also implicitly will help overcome shortages in equally applicable in places with similar the local supply of water. institutional frameworks to address climate 81. The report draws attention to the example of change. government regulation through high import 89. Thereby avoiding the well known problems of duties imposed on Compact Fluorescent discounting damages that occur in the future. Lamps (CFLs) in Pakistan. According to the 90. Smith and others (1996) advocate that the authors, the reduction of the duty from 125 primary tools for determining the percent to 25 percent in 1990 led to the appropriateness of response policies include reduction in price and increase in sales of benefit-cost and cost-effectiveness analysis, CFLs, which would have contributed to and adaptation decision matrix and index of improved energy efficiency (IPCC 2001). changes in vulnerability. 82. Communication during review of this paper. 91. Such as encouraging efficient water use or 83. Given also the issue of “free riding,� research developing efficient irrigation systems. and development and dissemination of results 92. Potential adaptations include modifying may be necessary by a public authority. farming practices through the use of drip 84. Paxson (1993) found in a study that Thai irrigation technologies, improved field households engaged in agriculture activities drainage, selection of drought tolerant species, used savings to buffer consumption from improved shelter or housing for livestock. For income fluctuations, caused by, among other fisheries, modernization and upgrading of on- factors, changes in climate. shore moorings and storage facilities as well as 85. Ellis (1998) reviews the recent literature on measures to promote greater sea-worthiness diversification as a livelihood strategy for and safety of fishing vessels. households in developing countries. 93. Burton (2001) argues that poverty in dryland 86. See, for example, Molua (2002) who suggests areas is intensifying due to a combination of many of these policies as crucial to assisting factors. 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