R ES T R I CT E D FILE COPY Report No. AW- 14a This rieport wcis prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organ They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The rer not bie published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRL:CTION AND DE% INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATIOI ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN MALI EVOLUTION, PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS (in five volumes) VOLUME III POWER AND WATER May Z0, 1970 Western Africa Departrnent EXCHANGE RATES Prior to May 4, 1967 HF 246.853 U.S. $1.o00 MFl1 = CCFAF 1 May 4, 1967 to August 11, 1969 MF 493.706 = U.S. $1.(0 ME 1 = CFAF 0.50 After August 11, 1969 HF 555.419 = uS. $1(.)0 MF 1 CEAF 0.50 Note: Cost and iiavestment figures given in thi's report in Mali francs have not been adjusted for l:he partial devaluation which took place on August 11, 1969. Any dollar equivalents cited are at the previous rate of exchange unless otherwise noted. .. : :~~~~ ECONM'O DEVELOPMENT iN IATLI POWER AND WATER TABLE OF ODNTENTS Page No. MA.P SUMNA RY I. Irntrodnction *********** ****.................... 1 II. Energie du Mali .* ........................... 2 III. TLe Power Market ....... I ....................... 4 A. Historical ....................... 4 B. Future ....*****.*..................... 5 IV. Present Generating and Distribution Facilities .. 6 A. Generation . .... ** ******* ** * *...... . 6, 6 B. Transmission ................ .. . 7 C. Distribution ...............*, 7 V. Future Developments ....................... ,.,. 7 A,. Kenie Rapids ................... 7 Petit Kenie * ....*.... 7 Grand Kenio ... *...................... 8 E,. Sotuba ......... C. Selinguet ............... 9 Sotuba 2 Units .................. ... 9 Sotuba 4 Units .... ....*.......... 10 B. Belandougou .... ...*.... 12 E. Dioila Project ...... 12 F*. Markala .................., 12 G. Tossaye Rapids ........ I..... ....... 12 II. Toubani .............. 12 I. Senegal River Basin ................... 12 VI. Investment Program ............ 13 VII. Financial Situation ........................... 15 A.. Balance Sheets ....*.....* ......... 15 B. Income Statements ............ O.......... 16 C.. Tariffs .. . . ............... 18 D. Taxes . . ............... 19 E. Consumers ....... ....... 19 VIII. Conc'Lusions ........... .... ..... ... O.. 20 ~~~~~~~~- . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~01 I~~~~EPUSLI( OI~~~~~~~~~~~~TMMUCOLI~; ENEW~~~~~JE t~~~~tJ MALI ~~~~~~~DM) A 1 GE R t A~~~~~Tosay ~~ MAR1tALA C~~~~nt~~r~~ servad t2X E DM /~~~~~ ~~JI~~~L.MIi~~~~~~T~~4 6 ~ ~ ~ ~~.q ~~~4~~~'~~vr~GA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ti~~~4qi hw~~~~i~ - ~~~ei ~~~w~fa~~OPT K __~~~K I;~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~OT To 0~~~~~~ r! Gouino ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ SK A G~~~~~~~~~~1~~~~~~~~~Ouga~~~~~~~~~~tati ca MARKALA N ?4IAMEY~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~IPD 269 JANUARY 197 VOLUN3 III ECONOMIC DEVELOPICNT IN 1MALI POIER AND WATER SUGmARY 1. Energie du Mali (EDM) established by the Government of Mali in 1961 with ]participation of Electricite' de lrance (EdF) and the Caisse Central de Coope'ration Economique (CCCE) i; responsible for generation, transmission and distribution of power and distribution of water. Of its present share capital of MF100 million (US'$200,000), 55 percent is owned by the Government, 35 percent by CCCE and 10 percent 'by EdF. 2. EDM presently serves eight independent centers. Installed capa- city totals li7.9 MW of which 5.9 MW are hydro (Sotuba plant of 5.4 MW serving Bamako, the capital, and Felou of 0.5 IV serving Kayes) and 12.0 MW are thermal (diesel). 3. In 1967/68 generation totalled 3j4.2 GWh an increase of 5 percent over the previous year. Of this, Bamako required 28.9 GWh cr about 85 per- cent of all generation in Mali. The average annual growth rate for the period 1962-68 was about 10.3 percent, but in 1965-68 it was only 6.3 percent. 4. The Sotuba hydro plant, commissioned in 1966, was financed with loans and credits to the Government totalling MF4,310 million (US$8.6 million). This plant. is still owned by the Government. 5. EDM from the beginning was faced with financial arLd management difficulties aggravated by the devaluation in April 1967 of the Mali Franc from MF25C) to MF500 to the US dollar. 6. Recognizing EDM's problems, the Government requested EdF to carry out a stucly of ETM's management, organization, accountancy procedures and system, assets valuation, tariff structure, depreciation and staffing poli- cies, and the power market, and to make recormendattions for the transfer of the Sotuba plant to EDI4. Financed by the Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (FAC), this stucly is expected to be completed by nid-1970. 7. EDM4's financial situation is complex. P,ower and water operations are not separated adequately. On June 30, 1968 total fixed assets, excluding the Sotuba plant, were valued at I'T3,970.5 million (US$7.9 million) and accumulated depreciation amounted to MF171,93.4 million (US$2 .4 million). Outstanding loans on the same date totalled F1,39?2.-4 million (US$2.8 mil- lion) of which 1MF520 million (US$1.0 million) are short-term debts. 8. It is difficult to determine a mLeaningful rate of return on net fixed assets in operation. An estimate made for the fiscal year 1967/68 indicates that, excluding Sotuba, a rate cf return of about 6.9 percent was earned. Following devaluation the tariffs were adjusted by a surcharge of 47 percen-t for ipower and 50 percent for water. These were, however, put into force after a delay of nine months, so that L967/68 revenues do not fully reflect the surcharge. Estimates made for 1L968/69, with revenues fully reflecting the tariff surcharge, indicate a rate of return, excluding" Sotuba, of about 19 percent or including S'otuba, of about 8 percent. - ii - 9. Mhe most important issue is arrears. Cumalative gross customer receivables by thes end of 1967/68 totalled MFl,001.'7 million (US$2.0 mil- lion) and equalled about 84 percent of 1967/68 revenues from the sale of power and water. Principal debtors are the municipalities of Bamako and Kayes. 10. An expansion program for 1969-73 foresees total investments of about MF4,442 million (uS$8.9 million). Of this MF2,449 million (Us$4.9 million is needed for water supply; ME1A,749 million (US$3.5 million) for power; and MF21414 million (US$0.5 million) for housing, etc. 11. EHI can finance 58 percent of this program from int;ernal cash generation (HF2,567 million or US$5.1 million). It, has obtained FAG and FED financing in an amount of MF1,265 million (US$2.6 million) and a French supplier' s credit of about MF230 million([JS$0.5 million) for a new diesel unit of 14.5 14W at Bamako. Financing of secondary water distri- bution facilities in Bamako is still to be arranged. (MF300 million or US$0.6 million). No allowance is made in the program for additional thermal facilities thagt may be required in Bamako by 1973 or 1974 or the provision of water supply in certain provincial touns. 12. l'o meet longer-term power demand the Government wants to carry out the SeLingu6 hydro-project on the Sankarani River. Located 140 km. south of Bamako, the Sankarani River forms the boundary between Guinea and Hali. Since Guinea territory would be flooded, imlementation of the Selingue project would be subject to prior agreement with the Government of Guinea. Final decision on the project must in iny event await the completion of detailed studies which, among other 1:hings, should examine the relative merits of hydro and thermal plant, including the need for additional thermal facilities before construction of Selingu5 may be warranted. 13. EMM's future situation will depend on the result of EdF's organization and management study, power market survey and load forecast, and the ability of EDM to implement -the recommendations made. 14. The mission did not consider power projects on the Senegal River or its tributaries which have been under inivestigation within the framework of the Senegal River Basin Study. The ult:Limate justification of any such project is in any event critically dependent on the outcome of studies regarding the possibility of making effect:Lve and economic use of consider- able amount of power and energy that could be generated. POUTER AND WA'022It I. INTRODUCTIOIN 1. The electrification of Mali began in 1928 with the installation of a 500-klM hydro-.electric unit at Felow near Kayes. In the following years various diesel generating units were installedt at Bamako, Bougouni, Gao, Kayes, Mopti and Segou. 2. Initially the Colonial Authorities. were responsible for public power supply, appointing firms to manage, operate, and maintain generating and distribiticn facilities. Later concessions were granted, first in 1951 to the Energie Electrique d'Afrique de l'Ou.est Frangaise (AOF) and finally in 1957 to the Societe Africaine d'Electricite (SAE). In January 1961, after gaini,ng independence, the Government of Mali took over all power generating, transmission, and distribution, and water distribution facilities. 3. Together with Electricite de Franoe (EdF), and the Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique (CCCE), the Governiment then established Energie du Mali (EDM), making it responsible for power generation, transmission, and distribution, and for the distribution of water in the whole of the Republic. w4ith an initial share capital of MF50 million (US$200,000) EDM is owned by the Republic of Mali (55 percent), CCCE. (35 percent), and EdF (10 percent). 4. The concession agreement between the Republic and lsEDN was signed on January 17, 1961 for a period of 30 years up to December :31, 1990. The conditions applying to the concession are cLated August 6, 1962. The faci- lities taken over by the Republic following the nationalization of SAE were placed at EDM?s diisposal against a nominal payment of MI.00 on the condi- tion that 'EDM maintains the facilities and sets up a depreciation reserve for them. 5. In the fiscal year 1967/68, 33.9 GITh were produced.by EDM. Of this amount 27.7 GWh were sold to 14,300 consumers, and 6.2 GWh or 18.3 percent represented transmission and distr:ibution loaesos and auxiliary uses. Maximum demand totalled 7.3 NWJ and the average annual load factor was about 52.5 percent. Installed capacity amounted to 17.9 MW of which 5.9 Ml was hydrc and 12.0 MW thermal (diessl). 6. Bamako, the capital, consumed 23.6 GWh in 1967/68 or about 85 percent of all power requirements in Mali. The number of consumers in Bamako totalled 9,400 or 66 percent of the total. 7. Energy was utilized on average for: i. puiblic lighting and administration 3 percent, iLi. industries and commerce 47 percent, and i:ii. households 50 percent. -2- ZI ENERGIE DU MI&II * 8. With headquarters in Bamako, ED-I is governied by a Board of seven members elected. for three-year terms. The seven members elect one member to act as president and one or two to act as vice-pr.esidents. The Board * may entrust the management of EDM to a firm or appoint a Managing Director responsible for day-to-day operations. The latter alternative was adopted. The Board appoints or dismisses all employees and fixes their salaries. 9. In accordance with Mali law, EDM is subject to State control by (a) a State Comptroller appointed by the Coumcil of Ministers who is attached to the office of the President of the Repub:Lic, and (b) two or more auditors appointed by thae shareholders for three-year terms, one of whom must be the auditor of the Republic. The Managing Director and the auditors may not be members of Parliament or Government Ministers. 10. A shareholders' meeting is convenad by the Board at least once per year within six months of the close of the fiscal year (July 1-June 30) to approve the balance sheet and income statement; to determine the level of share capital; to fix the dividend rate; and to elect Board members and auditors. 11. EDM's statutes define net income as gross revenue :Less operating expenses, genera:L charges, interest, debt amortization, depreciation and reserves deemed necessary by the Board. After deduction from net income of any losses incurred in previous years any rema:ining profit is allocated to: i) a reserve fund, to which 5 percent of net income is assigned until the fund reaches 10 percent of the share capital; ii) a dividend of 5 percent on the share capital; and iii) a social fund, in an amount determined by the shareholders. Any surplus remaining is used either to create extraordinary reserves, to provide for a pension fund, or to amortize share capital. 12. Since establishment, EDIN has been faced with a number of diffi- culties -- economic, financial and technical. Even before dlevaluation EDM was unable to assure proper maintenance. This sit;uation was aggravated by the devaluation of the Mali Franc in April 1967 from MF250 - US$1 to 17500 = US$1 and the deLay in adjusting tariffs. As a consequence, it was difficult for EDM to prepare financial forecasts and, long-term expansion programs. The major technical and financial problems, however, were solved in that the Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (FAC), CCCE and suppliers provided loans and credits to the Government in 1964 to construct the Sotuba hydroelectric plant near Bamako and to modernize the Bamako power distribution system. However, Sotuba, although operated and maintained by EDM, is still owned by the Government since the legal and financial problems involved in the transfer of this plant to EDM have not yet been soLved. Since devaluation the Fonds Europ4en de Developpment (FED) has assured financing of a small water supply project for Tombouctou and has been actively considering a water supply project for Bamako. - 3 - 13. The Government, recognizing EDM's difficulties, obtained a loan from FAC of ME'29 million (US$58,00o) for a study to review EDM's management and organization. This stiy is being carr:ied out by the Inspection G;ner'ale pour la Cooperation hors Metropole (IGECO), an EdF subsidiary, and is scheduled f'or completion by mid-1970. 14. T'his study will cover the following aspects: i) Organization and management including personnel, salaries, promotions,insurance, and social benei'it policies; ii) accountancy, including procedure and systems review, capa- bility of existing staff, state of existing accounts, meter reading, billing and collection procedures, procedures for dealing with arrears, stores management, and asset valuation; iii) legal aspects of the existing concession agreement; iv) financial implications of a Sotuba transfer; v) power market survey and forecast of demand up to 1980; vi) investment program and financing plan; and vii) tariff review. 15. This study is essential for EDflU's future. If 3an1:/IDA fiLancing is enrivsaed, the TGCO/2d1 report sliould be reviewed by the DankzfD aLd assurancees should be obtained that reccmmeadations leading to efficient and economical operations will be implemented vrithout delay., 16. EDIM is faced wiith a lack of qualified staff espec:Lally in the middle eclhelon positions. There is practically no qualified staff to serve between thie engineers and the workmen most, of whom are illiterate. EDA' s Board recognized the problem early and with the assistance Df EdF/IGECO established a training center. The specif'ic task of this center is to train foremen, electricians and mechanics in a program covering eighteen- month periods. First started in early 1966, two programs have been carried out, the first of which was for electricicms and the second for mechanics. An additional program is planned for worknen whose professional capability cannot be fully utilized, because of their lack of knowledge of the French language. This program would cover linesmnen, maintenance personnel, and diesel mechanics. 17. EDM presently has a staff of about 600 for its power and water services. Thae EdF stuidy will review actual needs and make recommendations on the staff requirements necessary for efficient, operation. - 4 - TII. TU-E POWER KOIAET A. Historical 18. Generation of power in Mali increased from 18.8 GWhi in 1962 to 33.9 GWh in 1968., increasing at an average annual growth rate of 10.3 percent. * During the sane period installed capacity increaseci from 8.0 MW to 17.9 MW and maximura demand from 4.3 M4W to 7.3 MW. The tab;Le below simmarizes past development by calendar years: 1962 1963 '.964 1965 1966 1967 1968 Generation in GWh 18.8 21.3 25.5 213.0 31.6 33.2 33.6 Losses in G-Wh 3.0 3.4 6.2 6.2 5.2 5.5 5.1 Sales in G'Jh 15.8 17.9 19.3 2.1.8 26.4 27.7 28.5 Growth of sales in percent - 13.5 8.0 13.0 21.0 5.0 3.0 Losses as percent of generation 16.0 16.0 24.3 22.2 16.5 16.6 15.0 Maximum Demand in I¢W 4.3 4.9 5.8 6.3 7.1 7.2 7.3 Installed capacity in 1MWJ 8.0 8.0 9.7 12.3 17.6 17.9 17.9 Average annual load factor in percent 50.0 49.8 50.5 51.0 51.0 53.0 52.5 19. Energy in GlWh was utilized as fo.llows: 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 Public lighting and administration 0.4 0.5 o.6 o.6 0.?7 0.7 0.7 Industry and Cormerce 7.6 8.3 9.1 1.1.0 12. 7 13.3 13.6 Domestic 7.8 9.1 9.6 1.0,2 13.( 13.7 14.2 Total 15.8 17.9 19.3 21.8 26.14 27.7 28.5 20. The arerage annual growth rate for the period 1962/68 for the above three categories was: Public lighting and administration 12.3 perce:nt Industry and commerce 10.1 percent Domes tic :10.5 percent Total :10.3 percent 21. Expressed as a percentage of the total, energy consumption in the three categories was: 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 Public lighting and administrat:Lon 3.0 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 Industry and Commerce 48.0 46.5 47.0 50.5 48.0 48.0 48.0 Domestic 49.0 50.5 50.0 46.5 49.0 49.5 49.5 Total. 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.00.0 1001,0 100.0 100.0 22. Consumption for public lighting af'ter a bl-stantial increase in 1961 and 1962 hlas remained virtually statiorLary in the last yars. Industrial and cormerical use increased in 1965 and 1966 when a number of small enter- prises such as cigarette, match and shoe factories in Bamako, refrigerated slaughterhouses in Bamako and in Gao, and cotton ginning factories in Segou and Sikasso carae into service and were suppLied with power. 23. Generation in GWh at the eight centers presently served by EDM is given below: Average Annual 1965 1966 1967 1968 Growth Rate % of % of % of % of 1965/68 CGR;Jh Total GlWh Total GWh Total GWh '.otal in % Bamako 23.8 85.0 26.8 84.8 28.5 85.9 28.3 84.2 6.0 Kayes 0.9 3.2 1.1 3.4 1.1 3.3 1.2 3.6 10.1 Mopti 0.5 1.8 0.6 1.9 0.6 1.8 0.7 2.1 11.9 Gao 0.6 2.1 0.6 1.9 0.7 2.1 0.7 2.1 5.4 Sikasso 0.4 1.4 0.5 1.7 0.4 1.2 0.5 1.5 7.7 Bougouni 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 - Markala-Segou 1.6 5.7 1.8 5.7 1.6 4.8 1.9 5.6 6.0 Tombouctou 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 -0.2 o.6 0.2 o.6 26.0 TOTAL 28.0 100.0 31.6 lcO.o '33.2 100.0 33.6 100,0 6.3 24. The growth rate of 6.3 percent over the past three years is low for a developing country. This reflects partly the stagnation of the economy and partly E3M-'s inability for financial reasons to connect new areas, especially- in Bcnako,that have as yet no power. S. few industrial plants have also installed their own generating equipment. B. Future 25. A forecast of future power requirements has not been made by EDM. A power market survey is, however, included in the IGECO/Edc study and a forecast of f'uture needs up to 1980 will be made. The following breakdown attempts to forecast future demand assuming an average annual growth rate of about 6 percent experienced over the past years in existing supply areas, and in addition: i) electrification of new quarters in Bamako and centers such as Fana, Koutiala and Koulikorog and ii) new industrial loads. 1968 1969 L970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Generation i:n C-.Ah 3 3- 5.7 .3 717 5 Losses in CT.Wh 5.1 5.3 6.6 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.7 9.1 Sales in G-Wh 28.5 30.3 37.7 40.4 43.6 46.8 49.3 51.8 Growth of' sales in percent 3.0 6.0 2465 17.2 8.0 7.5 5.5 5.0 Losses as percent of generation 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15,C Maximum (lemand in 1AW 7.3 7.6 9.7 10.5 11.3 12.1 12,7 1?23 Ave rage annual load factor in percent 52.5 52.5 52,0 52>0 51.5 52.0 52.0 52.5 Over the period. 1968-1975 the above forecast of sales corresponds to an average annual growth rate of about 8 percent. Ill. PRB3SENT GENERATING AND DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES A. Generation 26. In 1961 when EDM was formed, six centers, Bamako, Bougouni, Gao, Kayes, Mopti and Segou were served with power. With the exception of the small 500-kd hydro unit at Felou near Kayes, all generation was thermal (diesel). Installed capacity in 1961 totalled 8.0 MW. 27. In February 1964, Sikasso was electrified and three ulnits totalling 250-kVa .-iere installed. In October 1964, the Gao generating station -w-Jas strengthened by the inistallatio-n of a 310-kWa unit. In Deceriber 1964, the die- sel generating station at i-arkala operated by the Office du Niiger, was taken over by EDIMI and integrated with Segou. At >Tarkala, three units totalling 1,675 kVA aere installed and the power generated is utilized by the Office du Niger, the iriigation authority at Markala, and the balance transmitted to Segou, a distcace of 40 km, for general distribution. In eptember 1965, Tombouctou was electrified and three units totalling 250 kVA were installed. At the end of 1965, the Bamako diesel plant was strengthened by the addition of a 4,OOO-kVA. unlit and a l,OOO-kVA unit was retired. 28. :In 1964 construction started on the Sotuba hydroelectric plant, 8 km downsstream of Bamako on the Niger River. Feasibility studies and design were caLrried out by EdF/IGECO, and the Serv:Lce de 1'H;ydraulique du Mali (Ministry of Public IWJorks, Communications and Energy), assisted by IGECO, supervised construction. Equipped weith two Kaplan units operating under a gross head of 3.5-7.L4 m and a flow per unit of 60.0 m3/sec, installed capacity totals 5.4 W. An average of 35 GWh can be produced annually. The first unit came into service in April 1966 and the second in June 1966. This plant serves the Bamako power market. The low head during the high-flow period (August, September and October) and the low flow (HIarch, April, May)-- minimum flow about 30 rn3/sec -- greatly inCluence the utilization of this plant. No upstream storage is available. 29. Present generating capacity installed and operated by EDM is given below: Thermal Hydro Total kW kiI kW 1. Bamako (5) 87800 (2) 5740 L4,240 2. Bougourni (2) 96 - 96 3. Gao (4) 480 _ 480 1,. Kayes (2) 560 (1) 500 1,060 5. Mopti (3) 296 _ 296 6. Markala (3) 1,240 1,240 7. Sikasso (4.) 328 328 8. Tombouctou (3) 200 200 TOTAL 12,000 5,940 17,940 Nllmbers in ( ) denote number of units inslalled. - 7 - B. Transmission 30. With the exception of Segou, each center i.s served by its own generating plant. Transmission lines are limited to: i. Markala - Segou 15 kV, 44 km; ii,. Felou -Kayes 30 kV, 13 km; and iii. Sotuba - Bamako 30 kV, 11.5 km of' which 4.2 kcm by cable. C. Distribution 31. At the end of 1963, 5.5-kV medium voltage distribution totalled 85 km and by the end of 1966, IC0 km. The electrification of Sikasso and Tombouctou required 2.2 km and 5.2 km of medlium voltage, and 18.5 km and 11.0 km of low voltage distribution respectLvely. iv4edium voltage/low voltage transformer stations totalled 141. Three types are used, namely: i) standardized concrete structures with three feeder cells and two trans- formers up to 250 kVA; ii) prefabricated steel-sheet encased stations for one transfcrmer of 100 kVA or 250 kVA capacity; and. iii) pole-mounted transformers up to 40 kVA. In 1967 the Bamako 5.5-*kV system was changed to 15 kT. V. FUTURE DEVELOPivENTS 32. To mreet future increased demand EDI, its predecessors and the Government have to date investigated variouis hydroelectric projects. These are described in the following paragraphs: A. Kenie Rapids 33. Situated 35 km downstream of Bamako on t:ie Niger River, two low head alternative developments are possible. Petit Kenie 2 Units 4 Urits 8 Units Installed capacity in kW 5,000 10,000 20,000 Utilized f'low m3/sec 120 240 480 Firm capacity in kW wlth no upstream storage i) High flow period 2,200 4,400 8,800 ii) Low flow period 2,600) 2.600 2,600 Firm capacity in kW with upstream storage and 200 m3/sec minimum low flow regularilzationi i) High flow period 2,200 4,400 85800 ii) Low flow period 4,250 8,500 14,000 Average a.nnual energy production in GWh without upstream storage 30.0 55.0 100.0 -8- Estimated costs (1957) without upstream storage i) in millicns of MF 2,800 3,500 5,200 ii) in mi:llicns of US$ 1/ 5.6 7.0 10.4 iii) in US/KXir istalled T1/ 1,120 700 520 Grand Kenie Downstream of Petit Kenie, this alterncLtive wrould require a dam, providing head only, accross the Niger near the village of Najaambougou. Installed Capacity in kW 25,000 50,CC0 120,000 Average annual energy production in Gwh i) without regularization 33.0 - 2/ - 2/ ii) with regularization, minimum 200 m3/sec during low flow period 190.0 34C).0 600.0 Firm capacity in kW i) without regularization 3,800 -- 2/ - 2/ ii) with regularization, minimum 200 m3/sec during low flow period 21,C00 21,000 21,000 Cost estimate (1957) without regularization i) Civil works - dam - in millions of IF 7,400 7,400 7,400 - in millions of US$ 1/ 14.8 14.8 14.8 ii) Power plant - in millions of 11F 2,650 5,300 12,700 - in millions of US$ 1/ 5.3 10.6 25.4 iii) Total - in, millions of MF 10,050 12,700 20,100 - in. millions of US$ 1/ 20.1 25.4 40.2 - it US$/k:W installed 1/ 804 508 335 B. Sotuba 34. This plant, taken into operation in 1966 with two units totalling 5.4 i'274, presently supplies Bamako with a maximum of 4,850 MS of which 2,600 kW are fiarm. Output is however limited by flow and head conditions. With 1/ At 1968 exchange rate. 2/ Without upstream regularization installation of more thar 25 MU not justified. a river flow of 7,900 m3/sec (1 in 10 flood' output is 2,6CO kW and with 21.0 m3/sec (1 in 10 low flo-w), 1,OCO kW. UJtilizing the storage provided by the headrace channel, 2,600 kW can be provided for peaking purposes during the low-flow period. 35. Sotuba can be extended by two further identical units. The headrace channel is already designed for fouir unit operation. However, the diversion wqeir across the Niger would have to be raised 1. m. With four units installed, 9,700 kW would become available to Baminko and firm power would increase to 5,200 kW during the high flow period and to 1,100 kW during the low flow period due to increased head. For peaking purposes 3,800 kW cc,uld be provided. Average annual energy productiorl with four units in service would increase from 35 GWh to 62 GWh without any upstream storage and river flow regularization. No cost estimate for the power plant exten- sion has yet been prepared. C. Selingue 36. The only possibility within Hali to regulate the Niger River during loW flow periods exists at Selingue on the c,ankarani River, a tributary of the Niger, about 140 km south of Bamako. The Sankarani near Selingue forms the border between Mali and Guinea. The Sankarani flow at Selingud oa avrerage corresponds to about 25 percent of the NIiger flow at Koulikoro, east of Bamako. A 20 m high daTn with a crest at about 348.5 m would provide a gross storage of 1,570 million m3 and a useful storage of 1,410 million m3. The full supply level providing this storage would be at 3h7 m. This storage would guarantee a mininum flow of the Niger at Koulikoro of about 120 m3/sec compared to about 30 m3/sec on average at present. Such. a regularization would benefit the existing Sotuba hydro plant and any other hydro plants downstrean of Sotuba and upstream of the Office du Niger irrigation diversion weir at Markala. 37. A poweir plant equipped with four units, each utilizing a flow of 50 m3/sec, would have an installed capacity of 20 IW. In an average year 100 GWh could be generated and 19 NW would become available to Bamako with 8.5 i"W being firm. Selingue with Sotuba would provide a capacity of: Sotuba 2 Units Capacity in kW Maximum High Flow Period Lom Flow Period Sotuba 2 units 4,850 2,600 4,850 Selingue 19,000 12,000 8,500 Total 23,850 14,600 13,350 - 10 - Sotuba 4 Unitis Capacity in kW Maximum High Flow Period Low Flow Period Sotuba 4 urnits 9,700 5,200 6,oCo Selinguef 19,000 12,C0O 8,500 Total 28,700 17,200 14,5C0 Bamako is presently served by Sotuba and the existing thermal (diesel) plant as follows: Capacit;,7 in kW M4aximuri Firm Thermial plant 8,800 6,800 1/ Sotuba 2 units 4,85( 2,600 Total 13,650 994200 38. Total capacity available to Bamakco with Sotuba, Selingue and the thermnal plant would therefore total: Capacity in k[W Maximum High Flow Period LowT Flow Period Thermal plant 2/ 11,700 11,700 11,700 Sotuba 4 umits 9,700 5,200 6,o0o Selingue' 19,000 12,000 8,500 Total 40,400 2E,900 26,200 39. Allowing for spare capacity equal to the largest unit in the system, 21.2 IMT would be available. If arl average annual growth rate in Bamako of about 10 percent is assumed the above three plants would meet demand until about 1981. 40. Before any decision is made in respect to the Selingue reservoir project, the Sotuba extension, the Selingue' power plant, or the Kenie project, more detailed investigations are essential. These investigations should cover: i) a power market survey. This has already been entrusted to EdF/IGECO as part of their management and organization review; 1/ During high flow period one 2,000-kW diesel unit placed on standby 2/ Two 800-kW diesel units retired and one 4,500-kW unit added to meet interim dermand. - 11 - ii) up--dating of the available Selingue; study and cost estimate with supplementary field wsork. The Direction de 1'Hydraulique of Ministry of Public 1W,orks, Communications and Energy (MRWCE) through the Government of 1Nali has requested U'DP assistance for this work. Expected to te completed by late 1971, MPNCE foresees that Selingue constraction eould begin in 1972/73 and that the dam could be in service by 1975/76. A power plant wfould not necessarily be included in this phase since transmission lines over 140 Im in length would be needed and it might be more economical to extend first the Sotuba plant to be followfed by the Selingle' plant; and iii) a study to determine the optimum use of the Selingue reservoir so that power, irrigation and navigation benefits are maxi- mized, since power generatio:n at Selingu6 and any downstream pl.ants will be affected by the need.: of irrigation and navigation. These investigations should provide the basis for a comparison of the costs and benefits of alternative solutions which would include (1) construction of Selingui, withl installment of power plan.t at both Selingue and Sotuba; (2) the Kenie hydro-electric project described in paragraph .33; (3) con- struction of Selingue without immnediate installation of generating facilities there, but with installation of additional plant at Sotuba to provide 2.6 M1W more finm poower and a thermal plant providing 9.4 )1, and (4) additional thermal plant constructed in stages up to 12 IMW. The capital cost of these alternatives vraries widely; solution (h), for example, would. involve an investment of only $3 million, whereas any solution entailing the construction of Selingue would cost over $20 million. The saving in investment cost in the case of the thermal alternative would, of course, have to be offset by the recurring cost of fuel. A UNDP-financed study of the Selingue project is to get under way in October 1970 and is expected to take two and a half years. It is imiportant that its scope be broadened to include the economic as wrell as the engineering aspects of the project. Even if the project is eventually carried out, the growth of power demand in the Bamako area will require the installation of additional thermal facilities - a thermal plant of 4,500 KW,T by the end of 1971 and another of about the same capacity a. ew years later. 41. The Sankarani and the Niger River are inzternational inland water- ways and the Selingue Reservoir would flood 2,150 ha of Guinea territory of which 210 ha is cultivated. Early negotiations and an agreement between Guinea and Mali are therefore essential. Any increased use of the Niger flowf for irrigation purposes could affect both Niger and Nigeria. (Kainji). The possible consequences would have to be determined and exist,ing international agreements may require modification and c:larification. If flooding of Guinea territory were to be avoided the full supply level would 3have to be reduced by 6 m tc 341 m, reducing gross storage to 298 million m . This would provide virtually no regulation and would greatly affect the economic justification of the project.. 42. Mali should negotiate an approlriate agreement with Guinea with respect to the Selingue project. These r.egotiat:Ions should also seek to establish a joint advance flood warning zystem. - 12 - 43. T.his project on the Fie River, a right bank tributary of the Niger, joining the Niger about 30 km upstream of the Niger°Sankarani. junction, is about 120 km fromi Bamalko. A 26 m high dam would provide a st:orage of about 1,200 milldion m3. withi a catchveint area of about 4,500 km2, average run-off is about 1,750 million 0. A power plant at the foot of the dam would have an installad capacity of 10 tb and 40 Gwh could be produced annually. The storage would extend about 40 km into Guinea. No cost estinmte is available. E. Dioila Project 44. Located on the Baoule River, a tributary of the Bani, the project is about 16 kn upstream of Diolila and aboue 100 km to the south of Bamako. A 24-m dam would provide a useful storage of about 1,200 million mi3. A power plant at the foot of the dam would have an installed capacity of 24 Il and could produce 120 CAh annually. No cost estimate is available. F. N4arkala 45. The head created by the Office du Niger's diversion weir could be utilized by the installation oi two 500-kg bulb-turbine generator sets. Each unit would utilize 12.5 m /sec. Available otutput however is limited since irr:Lgation has priority and would be zero duiring the low flow period. During thl high flow period in September and October output would also be zero because of loss of head. G. Tossasye Rapids 46. Twenty-five km upstream of Bourem on the Niger, a 16-m dam could create a storage of about 800 million i3 of which 560 million m3 would be useful. A power plant at the foot Qf the dam with an installed capacity of 15 M^W would utilize a flowi of 300 m3/ sec and could produce annually 90 GWh. No cost estimate is available. H. Toubani 47. Localted 2 km below the village of Toubani on the Bani river and 80 km downstreiam of Dioila, this project would benefit from the regulariza- tion provided by the Dioila project. Fith an installed capacity of 7.5 Dl!, 34 GWh could be produced annually. No cost estimzate is available. I. Senegal Rive.,r Basin 48. A substantial hydro potential e(xists in the Senegal basin and this is presently being investigated in great detail. The four countries, Mali, Guinea, Senegal and Mauritania formed the Organisation dee Etats Riverains du Fleuxre Senegal (OERS) to promote the development of the basin. Studies still uriderway are being financed to a large part by the UJnited NIations Development Program (UNDP). A preliminary report was ava:Llable in December 1968. 49. This report proposed a dam at Galouga near Goui;na in Mlali to regularize the Senegal flow thus improving the navigability of the Senegal between St. Louis on the coast and Kayes in Mali. In addition, substantiM. power and energy could be produced and could result in the setting up of powver intensive industries, such as a steel mill, if the rdinerai depcsits - 13 - of the area. can be economically exploited. Regularization of the Senegal would also pernit the irrigation of areas i: Senegal and M1auritania. One or two smaller dams upstream of Gouina would allow the area of Maqui to be irrigated for the production of cotton and sugar. Hydro-agricultural studies are still in progress. The ultimate justificatiort of any power project on the Senegal. River is critically dependent on the outcome of studies regarding the possibility of making effective and economic use of the considerable amount of power and energy that could be generated. VI. INVEST2NT PROCRAM 50. Up to 1968 EDM was not in a position to prepare anny long-term investment programs due to economic, financial and technical difficulties and lack of qualified staff. EDMY's financ`ial position was aggravated by the April 1967 devaluation and the delay in adjusting tariffs to meet the new situation. In January 1969, however, a provisional investment program covering the period 1969-1973 was prepared. This program ies not complete since a number c,f projects included have not been studied in detail and no costs have been determined. Also, no provisions have been made for major projects wrhich would start in 1973. 51. This program, covering projects in Bamako, Segou-MIarkala, Mopti, Gao, Tombouctou., Sikasso, Kayes and Bougouni in acidition to the electrifi- cation of newi centers - Fana, Koutiala and. Koulikoro - would require investments totalling MF4,442 million (USt,8.9 million) as indicated below: In millions of Mali Francs Water Generation Distribution Supply Housing Total 1969 216.0 394.0 441.0 24.0 1,075.0 1970 & 1971 399.0 347.0 1,005.0 220.0 1,971.0 1972 & 1973 90.0 303.0 1,003.0 - 1,396.0 Total 705.0 1,044.0 2,449.0 244.C) 4,442.0 In thousands of US dollars 1969 432.0 788.0 882.0 48.o 2,150.0 1970 & 1971 798.0 694.0 2,010.0 4h0.() 3,942.0 1972 & 1973 180.0 606.0 2,006.,0 - 2,792.0 1,410.0 2,088.0 49898.0 488.0) 8,884.0 52. The nost urgent and high priority items in the program are the water supply projects, especially for Banmako. This projec-t studied in 1962, was scheduled for construction in 1963-64. Financing in the form of a medium-term suppliers' credit was available but the Compagnie Frangaise d' Assurance et de Credit a 1'Exportation (COFACE) was not in a position to guarantee the credit. Since then the water situation has become more critical from year to year. 53. :An 1966 FED (Fonds Europeen de Dtveloppenent) finanlced a study and priorities were established. In the second-half of 1969 FED agreed to provide MF1,170 million (US$2.4 million), to finance the expansion of the pumping and treatment plant from 750 m;'/h to 1,330 m3/h; the construction of three wuderground reservoirs totalling 7,850 m3 and a 300 m3 water tower; two inteernediate pumping stations; main feedlers; 50 fountains; and 25 fire hydrants. Secondary distribution Jacilities estimated to cost MF523 million (US$1.05 million) still remain to be financed. 54. FAC has granted EDM a loan of ME4F5 million (US$190,000) to finance a 575 kVA diesel generating unit a-a Segou-Markala (F750 million) and to assist in financing part of the costs of the Fana electrification (MF45 million). In addition FAG has granted a loan of MF29 million to the Government for the review by EdF/IGECO of EDU's management and organization. This amount is not included in EDM's investment program. From the original loan by CCCE to the Government for the Sotuba hydro plant an ttndisbursed amount of MF200-300 million remains. This amount could be placed at EDNI's disposal to finance items not included in the investmenti program. 55. Out of investments totalling MFb.,442 million (US$13.9 million) financing in an amount of MF1,265 million (US$2.6 million) haad been arranged by mid-1969, leaving a total of IE3,177 million (US$6.4 million) to be financed by EDI- or other sources. 56. To supplement the external financing already obtained and its own internal cash generation estimated at PIF2,567 million, the EDTY has been seeking to borrow some additional funds. It has obtained a supplier's credit, guaranteed by the French export credit insurance company COFACE, to purchase the additional thermal plant required for installation in Bamako by 1971. The ADB has been approached for a loan of MHF300 million (US$0.6 million) for the Bamako water distribution project. However, the Government considers ADB's terms unfavorable and is now seeking IDA financing of this project as iwell as of certain other water supply projects outside Bamako. 57. Excluding the undisbursed portion of Sotuba loans made to the Government, EDIJI's 1969-73 financing plan can be summarized as follows: In millions ' of In millions of IFY Total Of US$ Total Investlmen.t Raeouirements 4,442.0 100 8.9 Sources FED and FAC financing 1,265,,0 28 2.6 Other external financing (partly to be &otained) 610.0 14 1.2 Internal cash generation 1969-73 Estimated (net) 3,040.0 Increase in wiorking capital 4,73.0 Internal cash generation applied to constiuct:ion 2,567.0 58 .1 Total Sources 4 02.o 100 8.9 58. Constraction of the FED water supply protzect is scheduled to start in early 1970, with tenders being issued in the fall of 1969,, and should be completed in March/April 1972. The water distribution project could startJ in. early 1971 Tvith tenders issued in the summer of 1970. The most important and urgent distribution elerLents could therefore be ready for service at the same time as the FED project. VII. FINANCIAL SIrtJATION 59. EkI's financial position based on available information can be summarized, as follows. A. Balance Sheets June 30 (NF naillions) Assets 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 Fixed assets 1,775.5 1,843.5 2,338.0 3,885.5 3~,970.5 Accumulated depreciation 446.2 _584.6 708.2 863.5 1,193.4 Net fixed assets 1,309.3 1,258.9 1629.8 :3,022.0 2,777.1 Work in p:rogress 107.7 272.9 - 52.0 , 42.1 35.3 Total 1,417.0 1,531.8 ,681.8 I3,064. 22812.4 - 16 - Balance Sheets(continued) 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 Current Assets Customer receivables (net) 567.3 654.9 741.5 761.7 979.7 Others 332.1 349.0 345.5 930.4 881.5 Total 899.4 1,003.9 1,087.0 1,692.1 1,861.2 TOTAL ASSETS 2,316.4 2,535.7 2,768.8 14,756.2 4,673.6 Liabilities Equity Share capital 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 Reserves 122.8 165.3 235.9 1,117.0 10148.1 Subventions 104.2 124.2 127.7 131.3 140.9 Government equity 1,171.2 1,171.2 1,171.2 1,952.6 1,952.6 Total 1,448.2 1,510.7 1,584.8 3,250.9 3J241.6 Long-term debt 403.4 479.2 487.6 809.7 871-7 Medium-tern debt 62.4 41.6 176.8 40.0 40.0 Current Liabilities Short term debt 248.6 308.0 366.6 444.9 382.3 Payables 71.3 70.1 150.1 204.0 138.0 Bank 82.5 126.1 2.59 6.7 - Total current liabilities 402.4 504.2 519.14 655.6 520.3 TOTAL LIA3ILITIES 2,316.41 2,535.7 2,768.6 4,756.2 14,673.6 B. Income Staterents In m.llions of Mali Francs 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 2nd 6m-onths only Operating Revenues Sales of energy 315.3 604.3 736.9 796.5 1,001.4 Sales cf water 63.5 125.6 147.5 117.14 195.0 Rents 23.1 51.1 61.5 58.14 89.3 Other 0.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.9 402.6 782.8 947.6 1,0.L3.8 1,287.6 - 17 - Income Statement (continued) 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 Operating Expenses Salaries 128.6 281.8 291.1 326.5 297.7 Fuel and energy 196.5 359.2 330.7 278.2 363.3 Transport 5.7 14.4 15.3 17.0 29.3 General charges 12.9 18.5 21.8 23.1 38.1 Duties 17.5 30.1 26.8 34.0 75.6 Less: Salaries capitalized (h4.1) (56.8) (44.7) (2.4) (34.7) Depreciation 61.4 118.4 123.6 155.3 329.9 Total 378.5 765.6 764.6 812.7 1,099.2 Operating Income 2h.1 17.2 183.0 201.1 188.4 Interest 8.8 21.1 21.1 3C'.3 101.9 Income Tax 19.9 52.0 63.1 44X5 - Net Income (Loss) _(4.6) (55.9) 98.8 126.3 86.5 Rate of return on net fixed ass.ets in operation (Sotuba hydro plant not included)in percent 3.7 1.4 11.2 13.1 6.9 60. MDi fLnances development and expansion projects with i. internal cash generation; ii. loans9 iii. customer contributions; and iv. subventions. By June 30, 196ds3 assets financed by custorers totalled I{F1,022.2 million of which ]MF67o.2 million are recorded in the assets and depreciated. The balance of 17352.0 million appears on EDMI s balan=e sheet as a pro memoria amount. Subventions received up to the same date totalled nF156.8 mil- lion. 61. Nol; included as an EDM asset is the Sotuba hydroelectric plant, owned by the Government of Mali. This plant built at a cost of about MF4,310 million (US$8.6 million) with loanis and credits made to the Govern- ment, is operated and maintained by EDI whlo services no debts, and up to date has set aside no reserves for depreciation. The EdF study on EDM4's management and organization will recommen(1 conditions under which this plant could be transferred to EDM. If the Sotuba assets were included in the determination of the rate of return ab undepreciated va2ue, EDiv would have earned a return of only about 2.7 percent in 1968. 62. 19657/68 income, however, does not reflect the eff'ect of the tariff increase following devaluation, since this increase was applied about nine months after the April 1967 devaluation. As a consequence the rate of return is small. It is expected that this will improve for the fi&cal year - 18 - 196&/62., '.ith e.tirmated operating revenues of abouit AFl,,8318 million and operating expenses at about MF1,275 million, operating income is estimated at about PY543 million. Net fixed assets in service are estimated at about MF2,800 million without Sotuba and NF7,110 million with Sotuba. The rate of return for 1968/69 can therefore be estimated at 19.4 percent without Sotuba and 7.6 percent with Sotuba. In view of substantial financing provided by third parties (customer contributions) and by subventions, sluch a rate of return can be considered reasonable. 63. The major problem, however is the accournts receivable with a cumula- tive total on June 30, 1968 of 1,O1,0l0.7 million, corresponding to about 84 percent of 1967/68 revenues. The major debtors are the Municipalities of Bamako and Kayes whose debts total about MF300 million. 64. 'Since ]EdF is presently studying EDM's management an.d organization, in particular the accountancy system and procedures, state of existing accounts, rnetering, billing and collection procedures, procedures for dealing with arrears, stores management, balance sheet, etc., the above information is preliminary only and subject to revLsion after review of EdF's study and recommendations. C. Tariffs 65. The tariffs in force up to nine rionths aEter the devaluation of the Mali Franc were: High Tension Sales: Annual charge per kW installed MF5,760 US$23.0 1/ Energy charge per klih Peak hours MF3j3 UScents 13.2 Intermediate hours MF24 UScents 9.6 Night hours MF18 UScents 7.2 or One-tariff system (for an installed capacity equal or smaller than ,25 kWi) per kWh consumed 1NF33 UScents 13.2 Low Tension Sales: Lighting and Domestic The first 30 hours per mcnth times installed .apacity, per klih MFLi0 UScents 16.0 The following 30 hours, per kl%h MF36 UScents 14.4 Above 60 hours, per kWJh I!F'26 UScents 10.4 Public Lighting The first 120 hours per month times installed capacity, per klWh 1B936 UScents 14.4 Above 120 hours, per kWh MF24@ UScents 9.6 i/ US equivalents pre-devaluatio xcbange rate YF2r =) - Wi1 - 19 - Power aTA-nrual charge per kWh installed 1F5,760 US$23.0 Energy charge per kWh Peak hours HF36 UScents l1.4 Intermediate hours MF30 UScents 12.0 Night hours MF24 UScents 9.6 b) One-tariff sys bem, per kWh MF36 UScents 14.4 66. For hiire and maintenance of meters, the monthly rent charged varies according to number of phases, installed capacity and voltage served. For a 3-amperes one-phase meterserving an installed capacity of 380 Watts at 127/220 Volts the monthly rent is NM 30 and for a 100-amperes three-phase meter serving an installed capacity of 66 ka at 220/380 Volts, MF3,800. 67. The above electricity tariffs do olOt include any surcharges and taxes to be paid by the customer etc. Taril'fs are fixed by the Government in consultation with the concorned Ministries. They can vary with the economic situation and can be revised every five years. If the economic index increases to 3/2 or decreases to 2/3 of the value at thLe time of the last tariff revision, EDM or the Government may request revision. Tariffs may also be, revised if i) the sales of the last year are three times the sales of thie year when the tariffs were last deterTined; ii) new means of generation,, transmission or distribution are used which woulcl materially affect existing tariffs; and iii) if during the period of the concession the Government places at EDM'ls disposal hydro energy or if the tariffs for the sale of such energy to EDM are revised. 68. The above tariff schedule is still in force. As a result of devaluation, electricity bills issued after January 1968 have been increased by a surcharge o:; 47 percent. In addition the Government coLlects from the consumer a tax of: MF2.0 per kWh consumed. D. Taxes 69. EDM is subject to all taxes established by the Republic of Mali and by the Muniicipalities. These, with the exception of a surcharge and taxes to be paid by the consumer, are included in the tariff structure. Should the taxes change, EDM and the Goverinment have the right to request a tariff revision. E. Consumers 70. EDM presently serves about 14,300 electricity consumers as shon below: - 20 - Bamako 9,419 Kayes 1,176 Gao 668 INopti 1,067 Segou 1,423 Bougouni ni.a. Sikasso 296 Tombouctou 262 Total 1hL311 VIII. CONCLUSION4S 71. The present power market and its past development reflects the economic situa;tion of Mali. The modern seotor is limited and only 10 percent of' Mali's population lives in towns with mLore than 5,,000 inhabi- tants. With -an estimated population of 4.9 millicn inhabitants in 1968 - about 2 percent population growth per annum assumed - per capita energy consumption in 1.963 iwas only about 7 kWh, which iS; low even for African conditions. 72. lhe average annual growth rate was 10.3 percent fo:r 1962-68 or only 6.3 percent for 1965-68. These growth rates are small for a developirga country and are due not only to prevailing: econom.c conditions but also reflect i) EDM' s financial situation and difficilty in obtaining financial assistance for expansion projects; and ii) EDX's past financing methods, whereby distribution extensions are largely financed by customer contributions. 73. There is a considerable potential demand for electricity, especially in Bamako, but consumers, although able to pay for consumption, do not neces- sarily have the means to finance the required distribution extensions. 74. The study being carried out by IGECO/Ed -will assist EDiMv to prepare long-range expansion and investment programs and will permit EDM, by imple- menting recoimmendations made, to reorganize and meet future requirements in a rational and economical manner. The tenitative investment program prepared for 1969-73, though reasonable, covers only immediate needs. 75. The next major power project in Mali, the Selingub project, requires further studies. In particular, economic analyses are needed since not on>. r power but also irrigation and transportation benefits could result from the modest regularization of the Niger flow provided by the Selingu& reservo`r during the low flow period. A power plant at the foot of the Selirtgu6 dwn is not necessarily the next pow-rer developmnent sirLce regularization voulc - 21 - improve generation and fir-m power capability of the existing Sotuba power plant and permit this plant to be enlarged by the addition of two more units. Nevertheless, it is likely that the most ecDnonic way to meet forecast demancd in the imnediate future would be an expansion of thermal facilities at I3amako and deferment of Selingue6 until the system has grown to absorb Selingu6 power. It is possible that Selingue would. not be needed before 1980 at the earliest. 76. Cons-truction of Selingue, however, is dependent on agreement being reached between Iqali and Guinea since the S&ankarani river near Selingue forms the border between Mali and Guinea ani about 2,150 ha of Guinea terri- tory would be flooded by the reservoir. Reducing the storage level to prevent flcoding of Guinea territory would greatly affect the economic justification of the proposed scheme. It is, therefore, recommended that Mali should negotiate with Guinea i) the conditions under which Guinea territory can be flooded and, ii) the establishment of an advance flood warning system since the Sankarani catchment area lies within Guinea territory. 77. IMDM's financial situation, taken as a whole, is not unreasonable, since it is estijmated that the tariff adjuEtments, put into force following devaluation, will permit in 1968/69 a rate of retu:-n of 19.4 percent with- out Sotuba assets, and 7.6 percent with Sotuba assets. Equity represents about 70 percent of total liabilities, long- and medium-term debts 19 per- cent and current liabilities 11 percent. The ratio of current assets to current liabilities of about 3.6 is high, mainly as a result of customer receivables. Cumiulatively, these represented in 1967/68 about 84 percent of total sales revenues for this particular financial year. It is recom- mended that agreements should be reached w:Lth the principal debtors for payment of arrears, if necessary, over an extended period. The IGECO/EdF study