For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects April 8, 2016 Taking Stock  U.S. services sector picked up steam in March; weekly jobless claims fell more than expected. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose from 53.4 in February to 54.5 in March, holding firm above the 50-point mark (a reading above 50 signals expansion). The stronger-than-expected reading on the U.S. services sector came a week after ISM data showed that the manufacturing sector grew in March for the first time since August 2015. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that initial claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell nd by 9,000, more than expected, to a seasonally adjusted 267,000 for the week ended April 2 , suggesting that the labor market has continued to strengthen.  Euro Area services sector expanded in March at weakest pace since January 2015. The Euro Area services purchasing managers’ index for March was revised down from an earlier reading of 54 to 53.1, the lowest since January 2015 and below February’s reading of 54. The decrease in the PMI was driven by downward revisions in Italy, France and Germany, the Euro Area’s three largest economies. At the same time, the final Markit manufacturing PMI for March showed only a small uptick in the rate of expansion of the Euro Area manufacturing sector, pointing to sluggish economic growth in the Euro Area.  China’s reserves rose for the first time in 5 months. China’s foreign-exchange reserves rose by $10.3 billion in March to $3.21 trillion, the first monthly increase since October 2015, slightly up from $3.20 trillion in February (Figure 1). The increase compared with expectations for a decline to $3.19 trillion. The unexpected rise in reserves has been attributed to capital outflow curbs, a stimulus-supported strengthening of the Chinese economy and the U.S. dollar depreciation, after the Federal Reserve scaled back projections for the number of interest rate hikes this year.  India cut policy rate to 5-year low. The Reserve Bank of India cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 percent, its lowest level since early 2011, at its meeting on Tuesday, in line with expectations (Figure 2). In addition, the RBI cut the rate on the special Marginal Standing Facility at which it lends to banks by 75 basis points to 7 percent. The minimum daily maintenance of banks’ cash reserve ratio was reduced from 95 percent to 90 percent. The reverse repo rate that the RBI pays to banks for excess deposits was raised by 25 basis points to 6 percent. The RBI added that monetary policy will remain accommodative, noting that inflation (at 5.2 percent in February) was moving toward its 5 percent target.  South Africa’s manufacturing sector rebounded. South Africa’s m anufacturing production rose 1.9 percent (y/y) in February, the strongest showing since July 2015, following a 2.6 percent (y/y) contraction in January. The larger-than- expected increase in manufacturing output was driven in part by higher production in the petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products sector. The food and beverages sector was also a significant positive contributor. A negative contribution came from the basic metal sector, which has continued to contract, reflecting weak global demand. Figure 1 China’s reserves rose for the first time since October 2015. Figure 2 India cut the repo rate to its lowest level since early 2011. China’s foreign reserves India policy rates US$, trillions Percent Repo rate 3.9 11 Reverse Repo rate Marginal standing facility rate 3.8 10 3.7 9 3.6 8 3.5 3.4 7 3.3 6 3.2 5 3.1 4 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-15 Nov-11 Jul-13 Oct-14 Mar-15 Jan-16 Mar-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Dec-13 May-14 Aug-15 Source: Haver Analytics. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG. Number 300 | April 8, 2016 Weekly Insight: What are the empirical linkages between the choices of exchange rate regime and capital flow measures? Capital controls are more likely to be present when a country has a fixed exchange rate. This correlation is mainly present in countries at lower levels of income per capita. There is a statistically significant partial correlation between pegged regimes and capital controls among emerging and developing countries. A regression model, focusing on a sample of emerging and developing countries, is used to estimate the partial correlation between capital controls and pegged exchange rates, while controlling for GDP per capita, GDP, trade share, and currency union membership. The regression estimate shows a positive, statistically significant partial correlation between the extent of capital controls and the propensity to peg (Figure 3). It also shows a statistically significant negative correlation between capital controls and income per capita. The association between pegged exchange rates and capital controls varies with the level of income per capita for frontier markets and other middle-and low-income countries, but not for emerging market economies. The relationship between income per capita and the capital flow measures (CFMs) variable can be further explored by estimating a regression that allows the association of the pegged exchange rate and capital controls to vary with the level of income per capita. This is done by including an interaction term between the GDP per capita variable and the peg variable. This effect is statistically significant for the average income per capita of frontier markets and other middle and low-income countries, but not for emerging market economies. It is also insignificant for advanced economies, providing additional evidence that the effects of peg regimes on CFMs are contingent on income per capita (Figure 4). These findings raise a number of policy issues with respect to exchange rate regimes and capital flow measures. At lower levels of economic and financial developments, policymakers may be constrained to jointly and tightly control both the exchange rate and the capital account. Higher levels of development may allow greater discretion to implement some variant of these two policies. In principle, emerging and developing countries that choose to control both the exchange rate and the capital account may still exercise monetary autonomy to stabilize economic conditions. This is only possible, however, if they have the necessary monetary policy space. These choices could also reflect preferences among policymakers. Those who have a preference for intervening in the market may see both CFMs and a fixed exchange rate as desirable. Those who prefer to let market forces reign may prefer a floating exchange rate and unfettered capital flows. Figure 3 The presence of exchange rate pegs is correlated with the Figure 4 The positive association between pegged exchange rates presence of capital controls among emerging and developing and capital controls weakens with the level of income per capita. countries. Pegged regimes and capital controls. Pegged regimes and capital controls across per capita income levels. 4 1 3 Statistically Statistically ln(Capital control) | x ∂ ln(Capital controls) / ∂ Significant Insignificant 2 1 0.5 ln(peg) 0 Other Middle & Low -1 Frontier Emerging -2 0 Advanced -3 -4 -4 -2 0 2 4 -0.5 ln(Peg) | x 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 coef = 0.146, se = 0.075, t = 1.96, p-value = 0.055 ln(GDP per capita) Source: World Bank. Source: World Bank. Note: Using the emerging and developing country sample, this figure Note: The thick solid black line shows the estimated value of ∂ ln(kci)/ ∂ presents the estimate of the partial correlation between the logarithmic ln(pegi) for each level of income per capita, and the dashed lines show transformation of the capital control index and of the peg index, the 95 percent confidence interval of this estimate. The vertical yellow controlling for GDP per capita, GDP, trade share, size of the financial line shows the point after which this partial derivative is no longer sector, and a currency union control. significant at the 95 percent confidence level. The points on the solid line show the average values of income per capita for the country categories. Produced by DECPG Number 300 | April 8, 2016 Major Data Releases Fri, 01 Apr - Thu, 7 Apr 2016 Fri, 08 Apr - Thu, 14 Apr 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Sweden 4/5/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) FEB 3.8 % 4.2% 4.6 % Poland 4/11/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR -0.8 % Germany 4/6/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) FEB 1.2 % 0.7% 1.0 % India 4/12/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) FEB -1.5 % Netherland 4/7/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 0.6 % 0.7% 0.6 % Italy 4/14/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR -0.3 % Spain 4/7/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) FEB 2.2 % 3.1% 3.5 % United States 4/14/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 1.0 % Mexico 4/7/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 2.6 % 2.9% 2.9% China 4/14/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q1 6.8 % Romania 4/8/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 3.8 % 3.2% 3.6 % Japan 4/14/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) FEB -3.8 % Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Industrial Production, S.A. World 2.9 2.5 3.2 2.2 2.2 3.9 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.8 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.4 1.9 2.4 1.7 2.1 1.6 0.8 1.7 - High Income Countries 0.6 0.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 2.9 1.5 -1.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 -1.1 0.4 - Developing Countries 6.8 5.9 5.2 4.8 5.2 5.2 1.2 5.1 3.5 4.2 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.6 3.7 4.2 3.2 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.7 East Asia and Pacific 9.3 9.0 7.5 7.6 6.5 8.3 2.3 6.5 5.0 8.1 7.5 7.0 6.4 7.3 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.2 5.6 5.8 5.1 5.3 5.8 5.3 5.5 5.6 East Asia x. China 6.0 5.6 2.9 6.9 4.4 7.7 -1.2 2.7 4.1 8.1 5.4 4.0 2.8 4.8 4.3 2.4 6.6 5.1 1.8 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.0 3.7 4.2 2.2 5.6 - Europe and Central Asia 9.7 2.2 3.4 0.3 1.7 -0.4 1.7 5.7 3.1 6.3 2.8 2.9 2.0 1.5 -0.8 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.4 3.7 0.9 4.0 2.7 3.6 3.9 5.0 4.4 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.3 1.2 -0.3 -3.3 -0.1 -1.5 -4.9 -4.1 -5.1 -6.7 -0.9 -0.4 -1.5 -1.0 -2.5 -2.4 -2.7 -2.8 -3.2 -2.0 -3.5 -3.8 -4.5 -5.2 -5.5 -5.0 -3.8 - Middle East and N. Africa 6.0 -7.6 -1.5 -0.2 26.9 0.3 -16.2 11.5 8.7 - 17.6 10.7 13.1 8.0 -0.5 -0.5 5.9 4.6 7.0 1.8 1.4 1.4 -1.3 1.5 0.0 - - - South Asia 1.1 1.8 2.6 4.8 1.0 -1.5 12.1 8.0 2.5 -9.3 3.5 -1.5 5.9 4.3 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.3 4.3 5.6 4.2 7.7 3.6 10.3 -1.4 0.7 0.5 - Sub-Saharan Africa 2.7 0.8 -0.1 2.2 -6.6 9.9 -1.4 -4.9 5.9 -2.1 5.9 1.5 -0.6 0.6 -1.1 0.0 3.8 -1.7 -0.3 -0.8 5.5 0.8 0.6 -0.8 -1.4 0.1 -0.1 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 2.3 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.5 5.0 7.3 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.5 6.4 7.4 8.1 7.9 7.4 Developing Countries 5.3 5.1 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.5 Europe and Central Asia 9.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.7 6.7 6.4 5.8 7.2 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.2 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.7 5.9 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.4 8.0 Latin America and Caribbean 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 7.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.0 Middle East and N. Africa 6.6 5.3 5.0 3.9 5.7 5.8 5.1 5.8 4.5 4.9 5.8 6.2 5.8 5.4 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.4 5.5 4.4 4.3 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.3 5.1 4.6 South Asia 9.2 9.4 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 4.8 3.7 5.0 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 9.0 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.2 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.3 7.5 8.0 8.7 10.0 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.1 2.0 1.1 3.7 0.8 -15.2 -25.0 -3.9 -5.8 -7.3 2.7 -1.1 -4.1 -3.7 -10.2 -6.3 -12.6 -13.2 -13.1 -7.8 -13.2 -13.4 -12.0 -12.5 -10.9 -9.4 -10.9 - High Income Countries -1.5 1.5 0.7 1.0 -3.3 -18.0 -25.8 -2.9 -7.4 -8.4 0.8 -3.1 -5.8 -5.2 -11.6 -12.4 -12.7 -14.7 -14.9 -9.5 -14.3 -14.8 -12.8 -13.1 -11.0 -10.6 -10.5 - Developing Countries 4.1 3.2 1.9 10.4 10.7 -8.8 -23.3 -6.2 -2.0 -4.8 7.0 3.4 -0.1 -0.2 -7.2 8.6 -12.4 -9.8 -9.1 -4.0 -10.8 -10.2 -10.3 -11.1 -10.7 -6.5 -11.7 -14.1 East Asia and Pacific 6.2 6.5 4.6 19.2 17.1 -1.7 -14.8 -11.1 3.0 -2.0 12.5 7.8 3.2 5.2 -3.5 29.7 -11.5 -6.4 -4.3 0.7 -7.7 -6.2 -5.4 -7.9 -7.6 -3.9 -11.7 -19.8 Europe and Central Asia 3.2 -0.3 -1.5 -8.5 -11.2 -27.6 -16.5 -16.0 -9.4 -13.8 -2.4 -6.1 -10.7 -14.2 -13.6 -16.6 -18.6 -16.7 -21.5 -15.9 -21.4 -16.8 -14.6 -14.1 -15.2 -12.6 -16.7 - Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.7 1.5 -22.2 -17.0 -4.9 -9.9 -8.8 1.1 -3.6 -7.5 -6.2 -7.8 -12.3 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.1 -11.2 -16.0 -14.1 -10.8 -10.9 -9.0 -12.1 -4.2 Middle East and N. Africa 5.0 -11.1 -7.4 -1.5 26.0 -11.2 -59.8 - - - 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.1 -15.3 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -1.8 6.2 2.6 6.1 3.0 -2.9 -42.7 -1.0 -10.0 -5.7 0.0 -6.3 9.3 -1.0 -7.2 -10.8 -17.2 -12.7 -16.6 -10.1 -10.1 -15.5 -22.4 -14.4 -22.8 -12.4 -11.6 -3.2 Sub-Saharan Africa -2.4 -1.1 -5.5 -13.3 0.6 -20.5 -53.5 12.1 -20.5 - -2.1 -7.5 -7.5 -9.0 -25.5 -29.0 -19.0 -23.4 -15.45 -19.9 -24.6 -21.7 -26.3 - - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.6 1.6 1.2 -2.8 -1.1 -15.4 -27.8 -4.3 -4.2 -7.6 3.8 -2.2 -4.2 -3.6 -13.0 -12.9 -11.4 -14.2 -15.2 -9.0 -13.0 -12.4 -15.1 -13.1 -10.2 -11.3 -11.8 - High Income Countries -1.0 0.5 1.8 -0.7 -4.4 -17.5 -26.2 -3.8 -3.2 -8.1 2.3 -3.4 -5.3 -4.0 -13.0 -13.0 -12.4 -14.9 -15.2 -10.2 -14.5 -11.8 -13.3 -11.8 -9.4 -11.3 -10.0 - Developing Countries 4.9 4.1 -0.1 -7.5 6.9 -10.6 -31.2 -5.8 -6.7 -6.4 7.2 0.7 -1.7 -2.4 -13.1 -12.7 -9.0 -12.5 -15.4 -6.0 -9.3 -13.8 -19.4 -16.3 -12.2 -11.2 -16.0 -9.8 East Asia and Pacific 5.6 6.1 -0.4 -14.5 8.2 -12.5 -34.2 -2.6 -4.2 -2.7 6.6 2.4 -5.7 -4.3 -16.7 -17.0 -9.5 -14.0 -15.8 -5.3 -9.0 -14.2 -19.6 -18.1 -8.6 -9.1 -16.1 -10.7 Europe and Central Asia 0.7 2.5 -6.2 -6.9 -8.9 -10.1 -27.6 -18.9 -16.0 -3.1 -5.4 -8.3 -9.4 -10.4 -15.3 -13.4 -12.6 -17.4 -18.4 -14.3 -15.0 -17.7 -22.4 -13.7 -19.2 -17.7 -17.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 3.8 3.8 1.7 1.9 3.8 -7.5 -16.3 -15.9 -6.2 -15.7 8.8 -3.1 2.5 4.4 -6.6 -7.3 -0.5 -10.5 -14.2 -3.3 -9.7 -11.9 -13.2 -13.0 -11.2 -16.6 -17.1 -9.3 Middle East and N. Africa 10.8 4.0 1.5 -7.5 11.3 -17.6 -22.1 - - - 4.8 -1.5 -4.4 -2.2 -11.0 -7.0 -11.3 -7.7 - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -3.7 1.1 1.3 27.0 -9.4 -48.1 10.3 -1.8 -13.2 23.3 6.5 21.2 -1.5 -11.1 -11.5 -12.8 -7.5 -12.1 -10.2 -9.3 -11.3 -24.9 -18.5 -25.5 -3.3 -7.2 -3.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.8 5.9 5.0 16.5 -2.3 3.2 -25.6 - - - 8.9 4.5 3.1 7.8 -1.8 2.0 -9.9 -10.7 - - - - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.2 3.2 -1.9 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -1.6 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.5 -1.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 Developing Countries 5.5 8.7 -0.2 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 -0.1 -4.0 -3.5 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 -2.0 -1.8 -2.1 -0.1 East Asia and Pacific 4.5 12.2 0.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -4.9 -4.4 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -0.3 Europe and Central Asia 11.4 3.5 -8.2 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.0 1.3 -4.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.8 0.0 -1.5 -3.0 -0.7 1.7 Latin America and Caribbean 9.9 1.8 3.6 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 -3.2 -1.4 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.8 -1.3 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 Middle East and N. Africa 5.9 3.0 -10.2 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -6.0 1.6 - - -2.3 -0.3 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.2 - - - - - - - - South Asia 0.4 -0.2 11.3 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 4.7 -0.8 1.1 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.9 -0.4 0.7 -0.9 -0.3 Produced by DECPG (Anh Mai Bui). Number 300 | April 8, 2016 Financial Markets 1 2015 2016 2016 MRV 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.37 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.31 0.41 0.62 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.37 0.54 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 -0.03 -0.09 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.09 -0.13 -0.15 -0.18 0.00 -0.24 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 2.20 2.18 1.92 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.04 2.26 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.88 1.81 German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.70 0.56 0.32 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.68 0.55 0.55 0.59 0.51 0.23 0.21 0.14 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 424 423 431 478 388 369 384 397 397 442 437 413 442 485 507 443 433 Asia 206 230 233 245 264 206 195 203 212 212 250 246 235 253 268 282 243 233 Europe 287 346 345 311 339 350 327 330 328 328 347 332 294 308 338 359 319 319 Latin America & Caribbean 407 556 560 577 645 488 471 504 527 527 585 582 553 595 662 687 588 575 Middle East 388 469 447 506 555 441 409 410 420 420 479 502 503 512 542 580 545 548 Africa 323 445 425 509 626 361 345 358 374 374 472 490 482 555 644 661 573 557 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 417 399 382 399 395 436 435 424 427 403 382 411 407 399 375 372 395 394 High-Income ($ Index) 1710 1663 1582 1663 1638 1778 1779 1736 1766 1659 1582 1706 1694 1663 1562 1547 1638 1633 United States (S&P-500) 2059 2044 1920 2044 2051 2086 2107 2063 2104 1992 1920 2079 2080 2044 1940 1932 2051 2067 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1401 1474 1405 1474 1352 1618 1630 1552 1614 1478 1405 1523 1558 1474 1381 1347 1352 1332 Japan (Nikkei-225) 16292 16292 17388 18817 16555 19520 20563 20236 20585 18812 17388 19083 19921 18817 17518 15989 16555 15715 Developing Markets (MSCI) 956 794 792 794 821 1048 1004 972 902 882 792 848 814 794 742 740 821 809 EM Asia 457 404 391 404 404 514 499 475 440 433 391 422 408 404 374 369 404 400 EM Europe 297 244 259 244 272 338 320 311 293 285 259 273 263 244 237 241 272 269 EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 226 211 230 286 271 266 253 246 226 235 222 211 202 208 230 228 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 1895 1830 2121 2693 2496 2517 2305 2206 1895 2007 1919 1830 1744 1804 2121 2046 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.88 Japan 105.89 121.00 122.06 121.41 115.23 119.53 120.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 120.10 120.01 122.61 121.62 118.37 114.44 112.87 109.61 Developing Brazil 2.35 3.33 3.55 3.84 3.91 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.23 3.53 3.89 3.88 3.78 3.87 4.06 3.97 3.70 3.64 China 6.16 6.29 6.31 6.39 6.54 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.35 6.37 6.45 6.57 6.55 6.51 6.48 Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.82 7.88 8.04 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.91 7.91 7.83 7.83 7.82 8.47 8.88 India 61.03 64.14 64.97 65.91 67.50 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.65 65.09 66.16 65.04 66.15 66.54 67.31 68.22 66.95 66.66 Russia 38.58 61.34 63.62 66.17 74.84 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.53 66.23 67.10 63.31 65.01 70.19 77.36 77.23 69.93 67.60 South Africa 10.85 12.77 13.03 14.22 15.83 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.48 14.14 15.04 16.30 15.79 15.39 15.11 Memo: USA nominal effective rate102.16 114.64 116.18 118.04 120.25 112.71 112.00 112.8 114.55 116.59 117.40 116.41 118.32 119.40 121.77 120.67 118.31 116.73 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2015 2016 2016 MRV 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Oil price, $/b, nominal 1 96 51 48 42 33 57 63 61 54 45 46 47 43 37 30 31 37 38 Non - Oil Index 2 75 62 60 61 62 64 65 63 63 59 58 59 56 56 54 56 58 59 3 Metals and Minerals Index 88 68 65 60 59 73 76 72 67 64 65 64 59 57 56 59 63 60 Baltic Dry Index 4 1103 711 975 627 361 591 596 699 975 1061 889 790 582 510 391 307 384 406 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Anh Mai Bui). Number 300 | April 8, 2016