101227 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects Taking Stock  U.S. consumer price index was stable in September; IP declined for second consecutive month. U.S. consumer price index was unchanged (y/y) in September, against market expectations for a 0.1 percent decline, following August’s 0.2 percent rise. The decline in energy prices was offset by an increase in food and service prices. The core consumer price index rose by 1.9 percent (y/y), slightly up from August’s 1.8 percent increase. Meanwhile, the producer price index for final demand fell more than anticipated, by 1.1 percent (y/y), compared with August’s 0.8 percent decline. At the same time, U.S. industrial production (IP) fell for the second consecutive month in September, mainly reflecting a sharp decline in mining output  Eurozone IP declined at the fastest pace in a year. Eurozone industrial production fell 0.5 percent (m/m) in August, consistent with expectations, following a revised 0.8 percent rise in July. The decline - the largest since August 2014 - was partly driven by a drop in energy output (Figure 1). Among member countries, a 1.6 percent monthly rise in France’s IP was more than offset by declines in Germany and among the smaller economies. Separately, headline consumer price inflation turned negative in the Eurozone, coming in at -0.1 percent (y/y) in September, as initially estimated.  Fitch cut Brazil’s credit rating to lowest investment grade. Fitch Ratings lowered Brazil’s credit rating to BBB-, the lowest rating within the investment grade category, with a negative outlook, citing the government’s rising debt burden, difficulty in shoring up its budget, and a slumping economy. This followed the rating cut to below investment grade by Standard & Poor’s in September.  India’s consumer price inflation and IP accelerated. Indian consumer prices increased 4.4 percent (y/y) in September, following an upwardly revised 3.7 percent rise in August. The latest increase was more than expected and the highest in three months, driven by food prices. In contrast, wholesale prices declined for the eleventh straight month in September, owing to lower fuel and power prices. Meanwhile, industrial production increased more than expected by 6.4 percent (y/y) in August, having risen by an upwardly revised 4.1 percent in July, partly driven by the manufacturing sector (Figure 2).  Inflation edged up in Nigeria and Ghana. Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 9.4 percent (y/y) in September, the highest since February, from 9.3 percent in August, on account of higher food prices during the Muslim holiday period. In Ghana, consumer prices increased by 17.4 percent (y/y) in September, more than expected, up from 17.3 percent in the previous month, due to higher housing and utilities, education, and food prices. FIGURE 1 Eurozone industrial production declined in August. FIGURE 2 India’s consumer price inflation and IP moved higher. Month-on-month, percent Year-on-year, percent 1.5 Eurozone IP 10 3 month moving average 8 1.0 6 0.5 4 0.0 2 0 -0.5 -2 Consumer price inflation -1.0 -4 Wholesale price inflation -1.5 -6 Industrial production growth Jan-14 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Mar-14 May-14 Mar-15 May-15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-14 May-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 May-15 Sep-15 Source: Haver Analytics. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG (Derek Chen). Number 279 | October 16, 2015 Weekly Insight: Policy Options to Prepare for Risks around U.S. Interest Rate Tightening Should risks around the Fed tightening materialize, emerging and developing economies would need to resort to policy measures to alleviate financial stress. These include, most importantly, exchange rate flexibility, targeted monetary and prudential measures to ensure market functioning, and policies aimed at restoring confidence, including the credible commitment to a structural reform agenda.  Adjustments to the upcoming Fed tightening cycle could be smooth, but there is a risk that it is accompanied by bouts of financial market volatility. A sudden increase in U.S. yields could potentially combine with domestic vulnerabilities to generate financial stress in some emerging and developing countries. To mitigate these risks, macroeconomic and prudential policies should be geared towards reducing vulnerabilities and strengthening credibility (Figure 3).  Allowing exchange rates to adjust will be an important buffer to shocks emanating from rising U.S. yields —as long as currency mismatches on corporate and household balance sheets are manageable and macroeconomic policies are credible. In contrast to the 1990s, most emerging and developing economies now maintain flexible exchange rate regimes.  Countries concerned about the balance sheet effects of sizable depreciations may opt to raise monetary policy interest rates to stem depreciations. However, the effectiveness of an interest rate hike in stemming depreciation pressures rests on the credibility of the monetary policy framework. Meanwhile, in some countries, depleted fiscal buffers may become a contributor to further financial stress. For these, credible commitments to rebuild fiscal space should be a priority. For countries with wider space and credible medium-term objectives, the use of counter-cyclical fiscal policies and stimulus measures could be a feasible option when most needed.  If financial stress threatens financial stability—for example because of large foreign currency liabilities — intervention in foreign currency markets may be necessary. This could be done through the use of international reserves or swap market operations. Liquidity provision in local capital markets may be required to preserve orderly market conditions. The removal of capital inflow restrictions, or the imposition of temporary controls on certain outflows, might temper net outflows, but only as a complement to sound macroeconomic policies, financial supervision and regulation, and strong institutions.  Reforms aimed at restoring confidence may be needed. Reforms to improve the credibility of monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policies through changes in the governance of associated policy institutions may help convince investors of a commitment to sustainable macroeconomic and financial policies. Credible commitments to structural reforms could enhance investors’ perceptions of long-term growth prospects. Emerging and frontier market economies may hope for the best during the upcoming tightening cycle but, given the substantial risks involved, they need to prepare for the worst. FIGURE 3. Policy options to cope with tightening cycle risks. Allow exchange Macroeconomic policy measures Prudential measures rate depreciation Use targeted Build-up capital interventions Decline in buffers capital flows Macro- FX reserve prudential buffers measures Liftoff Use swap and Use Monetary FX liquidity policy pressures FX liquidity conventional measures on EFEs measures tools, weighing measures policy trade-offs Capital Fiscal policy flow measures Decline in Ease capital Use fiscal growth inflow regulation stabilization if space available Consider temporary Implement restrictions on structural outflows reforms Source: World Bank. Produced by DECPG (Marc Stocker). Number 279 | October 16, 2015 Major Data Releases Fri, 9 Oct - Thu, 15 Oct 2015 Upcoming releases: Fri, 16 Oct - Thu, 22 Oct 2015 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Mexico 10/12/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) AUG 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% Argentina 10/15/2015 CPI (Y/Y) SEP 14.7% UK 10/13/2015 CPI (Y/Y) SEP -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% China 10/18/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q3 1.7% Eurozone 10/14/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) AUG 0.9% 1.8% 1.7% China 10/19/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) SEP 6.1% Brazil 10/14/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) AUG -6.9% -5.6% -3.9% South Africa 10/21/2015 CPI (Y/Y) SEP 4.6% United States 10/15/2015 CPI (Y/Y) SEP 0.0% -0.1% 0.2% South Korea 10/22/2015 GDP (Q-o-Q) Q3 0.3% Turkey 10/15/2015 Unemployment Rate AUG 9.8% 10.1% 9.6% Spain 10/22/2015 Unemployment Rate Q3 22.4% Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Industrial Production, S.A. World 8.9 4.8 2.9 2.4 3.5 2.3 2.6 3.8 1.6 3.3 3.4 2.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.3 - High Income Countries 7.6 2.9 0.7 0.3 2.5 0.3 0.6 3.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.3 - Developing Countries 11.5 8.1 6.6 5.8 5.0 5.2 5.5 4.8 1.0 5.2 5.1 4.9 6.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.5 3.9 3.8 - East Asia and Pacific 14.3 11.3 9.0 8.9 5.3 7.9 6.7 8.2 1.9 8.6 7.8 6.6 7.6 7.1 6.6 7.4 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.7 5.4 6.1 5.7 5.5 - East Asia x. China 8.9 0.7 4.1 4.6 -0.7 8.0 4.7 5.6 -0.7 4.8 1.2 4.6 5.8 4.2 4.0 4.9 4.2 2.3 6.5 3.9 0.7 2.2 3.7 1.9 - Europe and Central Asia 11.0 13.7 9.7 2.3 4.7 0.9 1.9 0.2 2.2 2.9 3.6 2.3 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.1 -0.5 1.7 2.6 1.4 1.2 3.5 0.8 4.2 - Latin America and Caribbean 7.6 2.3 -0.3 1.2 0.6 -2.7 0.0 -3.7 -4.2 -3.4 -0.6 -0.5 -1.0 -0.5 -1.9 -2.1 -2.5 -2.7 -2.9 -3.2 -3.6 -2.2 -3.7 -4.3 - Middle East and N. Africa 2.0 -10.0 6.0 -7.7 16.6 -0.2 28.8 -0.4 -17.5 -7.4 -2.6 9.7 17.7 11.0 13.1 7.5 -0.7 -0.6 5.5 4.4 6.7 - - - - South Asia 9.3 5.5 1.1 1.7 7.7 5.1 1.5 -2.1 12.4 4.6 1.7 2.1 3.6 -1.4 5.9 4.3 3.5 5.2 3.5 4.5 4.4 6.0 5.3 7.4 - Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 3.5 3.2 1.1 -3.2 1.4 -5.8 9.8 -1.6 0.7 -7.3 -0.7 6.3 1.5 -0.8 0.5 -1.2 0.1 3.6 -1.8 -0.4 -0.8 5.2 0.8 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 1.9 3.0 2.3 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 - Developing Countries 5.3 7.1 6.0 6.4 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 East Asia and Pacific 3.4 5.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.1 Europe and Central Asia 7.6 8.6 9.0 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 8.9 9.1 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.1 8.6 8.3 9.0 9.9 11.1 11.0 10.1 9.7 9.7 10.2 Latin America and Caribbean 4.5 5.4 4.8 5.1 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 Middle East and N. Africa 7.0 12.0 13.8 19.2 13.2 9.7 10.1 10.7 10.7 9.1 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.5 10.5 11.2 10.3 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.7 11.2 9.6 8.7 - South Asia 10.3 9.8 9.4 10.1 8.1 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 6.8 7.3 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 7.5 10.1 11.1 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.8 8.4 7.6 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.3 9.0 8.9 8.8 - 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.9 19.2 0.3 1.8 -1.2 3.9 1.5 -16.0 -28.1 3.5 5.2 0.8 2.8 -1.3 -4.5 -4.0 -11.1 -7.4 -13.4 -13.7 -13.6 -8.1 -13.7 -13.3 - High Income Countries 19.5 18.5 -1.2 1.3 1.8 1.2 -2.6 -19.0 -29.5 2.9 4.7 -0.5 1.1 -3.4 -6.3 -5.6 -12.9 -13.6 -13.8 -15.3 -15.4 -9.9 -14.9 -14.8 - Developing Countries 28.7 20.8 3.9 3.1 -8.1 10.9 11.8 -8.5 -25.0 5.1 6.4 3.7 7.0 3.6 -0.4 -0.1 -7.1 8.3 -12.4 -10.0 -9.3 -3.9 -10.7 -10.0 - East Asia and Pacific 30.8 19.7 6.3 6.4 -11.3 17.8 19.1 0.6 -17.6 7.8 11.4 8.3 12.6 8.3 3.4 5.7 -3.4 29.3 -11.6 -6.6 -4.4 0.6 -7.8 -6.2 -4.5 Europe and Central Asia 15.7 20.9 1.6 -1.4 7.7 -7.1 -9.1 -29.0 -17.4 3.6 3.9 -5.3 -2.0 -5.7 -11.4 -13.9 -13.4 -16.4 -18.5 -16.4 -21.8 -14.8 -20.8 - - Latin America and Caribbean 28.9 23.2 2.4 0.6 -7.6 8.5 3.6 -23.7 -18.6 2.4 6.6 0.6 1.2 -3.3 -7.7 -6.0 -7.8 -12.3 -5.5 -12.0 -14.6 -7.1 -11.5 -16.9 - Middle East and N. Africa 23.7 15.8 5.0 -11.1 -6.1 -1.4 27.4 -12.1 -60.1 -8.7 -17.1 -1.7 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.4 -15.5 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - South Asia 34.4 31.4 -1.8 6.2 -7.2 11.8 0.7 -1.6 -46.9 8.9 -0.3 1.6 -0.4 -5.5 8.6 -0.7 -7.6 -12.6 -17.3 -12.6 -16.8 -10.0 -8.4 -17.3 - Sub-Saharan Africa 32.5 19.6 -2.4 -1.1 -1.1 -7.9 -4.3 -29.7 -47.6 -1.2 -0.3 -9.5 -2.6 -10.9 -11.4 -12.4 -25.9 -28.6 -18.6 -25.08 -16.04 -18.0 - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.0 19.6 0.7 1.6 4.5 -1.7 0.6 -14.7 -31.0 5.1 3.1 0.9 4.0 -2.0 -4.1 -3.2 -13.4 -13.1 -11.5 -14.4 -15.4 -9.1 -13.2 -12.8 - High Income Countries 17.8 17.7 -1.0 0.5 5.2 0.0 -3.1 -17.2 -28.6 6.0 5.4 0.7 2.4 -3.3 -5.3 -3.8 -13.2 -13.1 -12.5 -15.2 -15.5 -10.4 -14.7 -12.1 - Developing Countries 30.5 24.5 4.9 4.1 2.8 -5.7 9.8 -8.9 -36.2 2.9 -1.9 1.5 7.5 1.0 -1.3 -1.9 -13.7 -12.8 -9.0 -12.5 -15.3 -5.9 -9.7 -14.4 - East Asia and Pacific 37.3 24.2 5.7 6.1 5.0 -12.9 11.4 -9.8 -39.9 2.8 -3.1 -0.3 6.7 2.8 -5.3 -3.8 -17.3 -17.0 -9.7 -14.1 -15.8 -5.3 -9.2 -14.2 -18.7 Europe and Central Asia 22.2 29.2 0.7 2.6 -14.1 -7.9 -7.2 -6.4 -31.2 -2.0 -11.3 -4.9 -5.2 -7.9 -9.2 -9.8 -15.3 -13.5 -12.7 -17.5 -18.5 -14.5 -15.1 -18.5 - Latin America and Caribbean 30.9 21.0 4.0 3.8 5.6 1.7 4.7 -5.6 -19.2 4.9 0.7 1.6 8.7 -2.8 2.4 5.2 -7.3 -7.0 -0.6 -10.7 -14.8 -4.1 -10.4 -13.2 - Middle East and N. Africa 14.9 17.4 10.8 3.9 -0.5 -3.6 17.3 -19.9 -27.2 -2.5 1.6 11.0 7.5 -1.6 -3.7 -2.5 -11.2 -7.1 -11.3 -7.6 - - - - - South Asia 33.9 31.4 4.0 -4.0 10.8 9.1 32.4 -11.6 -54.7 8.6 3.6 6.5 23.8 7.1 21.5 -1.1 -12.3 -13.1 -12.8 -7.5 -12.0 -10.4 -9.2 -12.5 - Sub-Saharan Africa 13.6 25.3 3.8 5.9 1.2 17.2 -1.2 4.7 -28.1 4.7 4.1 6.9 9.0 4.7 3.1 7.8 -1.9 1.9 -10.1 -10.8 - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.9 11.8 9.2 3.2 0.8 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 - Developing Countries 16.0 10.8 5.5 8.7 1.8 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 0.5 -0.1 0.0 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.5 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.33 East Asia and Pacific 19.3 11.9 4.5 12.2 3.0 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.21 Europe and Central Asia 11.0 4.9 11.4 3.5 -4.7 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.2 -0.5 1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 19.6 20.0 9.9 1.8 0.7 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.4 Middle East and N. Africa 6.1 3.0 5.9 3.0 -1.9 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -5.9 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 - - - - South Asia 6.1 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 3.8 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Xinghao Gong). Number 279 | October 16, 2015 Financial Markets 1 2014 2014 2015 MRV Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 ECB repo 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 EURIBOR 3-months 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.30 0.30 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.85 2.70 2.72 2.69 2.55 2.59 2.53 2.41 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.05 German Bund, 10 yr 1.80 1.66 1.59 1.53 1.40 1.35 1.19 1.01 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.68 0.59 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 346 368 341 315 303 282 282 310 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 369 384 397 430 474 423 Asia 241 238 214 209 193 189 195 202 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 195 203 212 245 275 229 Europe 285 306 313 288 271 236 244 274 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 327 330 328 343 363 353 Latin America & Caribbean 423 457 408 371 365 343 336 373 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 471 504 527 566 630 558 Middle East 410 414 398 387 379 360 372 379 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 409 410 420 460 513 427 Africa 333 347 316 294 288 278 278 292 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 345 358 374 445 521 421 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 392 410 411 414 422 429 423 432 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 435 424 427 403 382 400 High-Income ($ Index) 1598 1675 1674 1688 1715 1743 1714 1749 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1779 1736 1766 1659 1582 1653 United States (S&P-500) 1783 1859 1872 1884 1924 1960 1931 2003 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2107 2063 2104 1992 1920 1994 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1314 1376 1361 1382 1408 1401 1380 1404 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1630 1552 1614 1478 1405 1443 Japan (Nikkei-225) 14915 14841 14828 14304 14632 15162 15621 15425 16174 16414 17460 17451 17674 18798 19207 19520 20563 20236 20585 18812 17388 17891 Developing Markets (MSCI) 937 966 995 995 1028 1051 1066 1088 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1004 972 902 882 792 849 EM Asia 425 438 444 444 461 472 485 489 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 499 475 440 433 391 419 EM Europe 398 406 409 396 428 435 403 399 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 320 311 293 285 259 283 EM Europe & Middle East 338 345 348 337 364 360 340 337 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 271 266 253 246 226 243 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2894 2941 3194 3254 3242 3370 3399 3664 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2496 2517 2305 2206 1895 2017 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.87 Japan 103.88 102.12 102.36 102.51 101.84 102.07 101.75 102.98 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 120.10 118.80 Developing Brazil 2.38 2.38 2.33 2.23 2.22 2.23 2.22 2.27 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.23 3.53 3.89 3.81 China 6.05 6.08 6.17 6.23 6.24 6.23 6.20 6.15 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.35 Egypt 6.96 6.96 6.96 6.98 7.09 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.83 India 62.08 62.19 60.97 60.34 59.37 59.76 60.06 60.83 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.65 65.09 66.16 65.04 Russia 33.78 35.31 36.13 35.67 34.84 34.37 34.75 36.17 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.53 66.23 67.10 62.67 South Africa 10.88 10.95 10.75 10.54 10.41 10.68 10.66 10.66 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.21 Memo: USA nominal effective rate 107.94 108.76 108.66 108.23 108.73 109.47 109.59 110.79 111.87 112.87 114.06 115.94 118.13 119.99 122.10 121.76 121.40 122.4 123.89 126.13 127.55 126.70 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2014 2015 MRV Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oil price, $/b, nominal 1 102 105 104 105 106 108 105 100 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 63 61 54 45 46 47 Non - Oil Index 2 75 76 78 79 78 77 76 75 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 65 63 62 58 58 59 3 Metals and Minerals Index 91 89 86 88 87 87 90 90 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 76 72 67 64 65 65 Baltic Dry Index 4 1501 1140 1484 1035 992 912 796 944 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 596 699 975 1061 889 787 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Xinghao Gong). Number 279 | October 16, 2015