June 2020 STRENGTHENING MOLDOVA’S DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE Facing Current Issues and Future Challenges © 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction Rights and Permissions and Development / International Development Association or The material in this work is subject to copyright. The World Bank Because The World Bank encourages dissemination 1818 H Street NW of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in Washington DC 20433 whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as Telephone: 202-473-1000 long as full attribution to this work is given. Internet: www.worldbank.org Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office This work is a product of the staff of The World of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street Bank with external contributions. 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The World Bank’s Engagement in Moldova The World Bank, like other international financial institutions and bilateral series of recent technical assistance activities focused on improving donors, has been supporting the Government of Moldova over many hydromet services and the disaster response capacity of the General years on the DRM and climate resilience agenda, including a Post- Inspectorate for Emergency Situations. However, the activities do not Disaster Needs Assessment after the 2010 floods, the Disaster and constitute an integrated approach, and a renewed effort is required. Climate Risk Management IDA (International Development Association) Given the complexity and cross-sectoral nature of the required DRM project (US$10 million, closed in 2015), and a Climate Adaptation Project reform actions, government commitment and ownership represent (US$27.2 million, approved in 2017 but canceled in 2018), as well as a critical prerequisites for success. 02 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 04 ABBREVIATIONS 05 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 07 CHAPTER 1. MOLDOVA DISASTER AND CLIMATE RISK PROFILE 12 CHAPTER 2. INSTITUTIONAL, POLICY, AND LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR DRM 18 CHAPTER 3. ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT SITUATION IN MOLDOVA 22 Risk Identification 22 Risk Reduction 26 Emergency Response and Preparedness 31 Financial Protection 34 Resilient Recovery 36 CHAPTER 4. SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 40 ANNEX 1: REFERENCES AND KEY SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS 44 ANNEX 2: NATIONAL DRM-RELATED LAWS AND REGULATIONS IN MOLDOVA 46 ANNEX 3: MOLDOVA’S RECENT PROGRESS IN BUILDING DISASTER AND CLIMATERESILIENCE 47 ANNEX 4: OVERVIEW OF KEY INSTITUTIONS INVOLVED IN DRM IN MOLDOVA 48 ANNEX 5: OVERVIEW OF WORLD BANK ENGAGEMENT IN MOLDOVA 49 NOTES 50 Figure 1: Seismic Hazard Map for a 475-Year Ground Shaking and Geographical Distribution of Average Annual Losses Due to Earthquake-Related Direct Damages 14 Figure 2: Added Value in Agriculture and GDP Growth, 2001–2015 14 Figure 3: Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in Moldova by 2050 15 Figure 4: Overview of Disasters in Moldova in the last 80 Years 16 Figure 5: Institutional Arrangements for Disaster Risk Management: Overview 20 Figure 6: Available Resources in Case of State of Emergency in Moldova 21 Figure 7: Moldova’s Recent Progress in Building Disaster and Climate Resilience 38 Box 1. The Abnormally Hot Summer of 2010 16 Box 2. DRM implications for COVID-19 crisis in Moldova 21 Box 3. Seismic Risk in Chisinau: The 1940 Earthquake, Then and Now 24 Box 4. International DRM Commitments: Moldova–EU Association Agreement 26 Box 5. Addressing Seismic Risk in Pre-1990s Large Panel Buildings in Bulgaria 28 Box 6: Strengthening the Structural Safety of Moldovan Hospitals 30 Box 7. Community Resilience & Private Sector involvement: the CSO experience in Bucharest 32 Box 8. Moldova’s Preparedness lessons learned from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic 34 Box 9. Considerations to strengthen existing DRM systems in light of ongoing COVID-19 health crisis 43 03 04 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This Disaster Risk Management (DRM) policy note The team gratefully acknowledges the data, was prepared by a World Bank team composed information, and other valuable contributions made of Axel Baeumler, senior infrastructure economist; by development partners—including the European Yann Kerblat, disaster risk management analyst; Commission, the European Bank of Reconstruction Alexei Ionescu, disaster risk management and Development, the European Investment Bank, consultant; Daniel Kull, senior disaster risk the United Nations Development Program, the management specialist; Anatol Gobjila, senior United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, agriculture economist; and Ahmet Kindap, and others—as well as representatives of the senior urban specialist. James Daniell, Antonios Government of Moldova. Anne Himmelfarb edited Pomonis, Anna Neuweiler, and Maryia Markhvida the report, and Jon Walton provided graphic design provided guidance and analytical support to better support. understand and articulate Moldova’s earthquake risk. In addition, Stephen Ling, lead environmental The team is grateful for the financial support specialist, Anna-Maria Bogdanova, disaster risk received from the Global Facility for Disaster management specialist, and Bogdan Topan, disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), which enabled risk management consultant, provided helpful this project. comments and insightful suggestions. This DRM policy note was prepared and developed under the guidance of David N. Sislen, practice manager, and Anna Akhalkatsi, Moldova country manager. ABBREVIATIONS CAT-DDO Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option CCA climate change adaptation DRM disaster risk management DRR disaster risk reduction ECLAC Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean EIB European Investment Bank EU European Union GDP gross domestic product GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GIES General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations ICT information and communications technology IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development INSARAG International Search and Rescue Advisory Group LPA Local Public Authority NAP National Adaptation Plan NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization PDNA Post-Disaster Needs Assessment PPRD East Prevention, Preparedness and Response to Natural and Man-made Disasters in the Eastern Partnership Countries SHS State Hydrometeorological Service UNDP United Nations Development Program UNDRR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction USAR Urban Search and Rescue 05 06 Briceni Soroca Bălți Orhei Ungheni Chișinău Bender Tiraspol Cahul EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Moldova is exposed to an array of natural hazards, but also other shocks and stresses, such as the and their impact disproportionately affects the ongoing COVID19 pandemic. Just like in the case poor. Floods, droughts, and severe weather events of a disaster, emergency responses’ effectiveness are the most recurring threats—but earthquakes, hinges on the overall institutional governance though rarer, could also have a devastating effect. arrangements not only at the national level but Projected rises in temperatures, rainfall volatility, also at the local level – with local authorities and incidence and severity of drought due to climate being at the frontline of combating the COVID-19 change are likely to render the impacts of disasters epidemic jointly with the DRM agency and different worse over the medium term. Moldova has some of sectoral actors. Local capacity is essential because the core institutional and legislative structures for Moldova’s ability to respond to COVID-19, or disaster risk management (DRM) in place, but—as any other shock or stress, is not just determined is common in many countries—the main emphasis by its level of preparedness and readiness to is on “reactive” disaster response, not necessarily cope with such complex crises, but also by the on “proactive” disaster risk reduction or disaster level of effectiveness of its governance systems risk mitigation. (particularly in urban areas), as well as its existing service delivery and infrastructure systems. The Government of Moldova has been strengthening institutions to better prepare for and In this DRM country policy note, chapter one respond to disasters. It has improved the ability provides an overview of Moldova’s disaster to forecast severe weather, including at the local and climate risk profile. Chapter two reviews level, through improved hydrometeorological the current institutional and legal framework for services; it has reduced the agricultural sector’s disaster risk management and financing, including vulnerability to climate change by improving measures and policies recently adopted. Chapter irrigation services, strengthening the existing three is an assessment of the current disaster agriculture insurance scheme, and promoting risk management situation in Moldova, including climate-smart agriculture practices; and— ex ante and ex post disaster risk financing and importantly in light of the small size of the insurance (DRFI) instruments currently in use country—it has strengthened regional collaboration for budget mobilization, and explores a potential and knowledge sharing on DRM. However, much earthquake scenario for Chisinau in more detail. remains to be done, and the social and economic The fourth chapter concludes with a look at costs of disasters cannot be underestimated: over potential institutional and financial gaps, including the past decade alone, floods and droughts caused a summary of recommendations and different sets US$1.2 billion in damage; a major earthquake of corrective measures that could be envisaged. today could affect 60 percent of the country’s gross Moldova needs to clarify roles and responsibilities domestic product (GDP). for strategic oversight, planning, coordination, and Strengthening Moldova’s DRM institutional implementation of risk identification, reduction, and architecture is not only essential to enable the response measures. A comprehensive DRM and country to better respond to natural hazards climate resilience reform agenda would need to 07 08 comprise multiple elements to improve all aspects of • It would also be beneficial for Moldova to modify an operational DRM framework, ranging from improved its current legal framework by introducing risk identification, better risk reduction, and enhanced an overarching DRM law to introduce key preparedness, to stronger financial protection DRM terminology, and define the key roles mechanisms and resilient recovery and reconstruction and responsibilities for risk identification, policies. Moldova developed a draft National Strategy assessment, mitigation, management, and for Natural Hazard Mitigation in 2015, but it was never finance at the national, regional, and local finalized.1 The government should now consider levels. Institutional mandates will need to finalizing the Strategy to ensure an overarching and be clearly defined to clarify responsibilities comprehensive DRM framework is in place. Such a and avoid institutional overlap. The process framework would need to gradually move the focus of of adopting the proposed strategy and DRM from reactive, ex post responses to proactive, corresponding legislative amendments should ex ante risk management. Given limited resources, it not prevent Moldovan authorities from pursuing would also need to ensure that risk mitigation priorities a set of priority actions to further the overall are adequately mainstreamed within existing national DRM agenda. programs (agriculture, urban planning, flood risk management, among others). High-priority actions for RISK such a framework would need to include the following IDENTIFICATION actions, specified for each phase of the DRM cycle: DEVELOPMENT • A common shared platform dedicated to multi- OF AN OVERALL hazard risk information, including exposure and DRM FRAMEWORK vulnerability data, should be developed and needs to be available to all relevant ministries and agencies. DRM risk assessments should • Adopting a National DRM Strategy would be mainstreamed into sectoral development provide an overarching vision and ensure that strategies. This change would facilitate greater risk mitigation priorities are incorporated in coordination in data sharing and management appropriate national development programs. A and help meet priorities such as seismic risk national DRM strategy should be developed by key mapping and the development of a national institutions and stakeholders in a collaborative and database of infrastructure and buildings and participatory manner, with a view to establishing their vulnerabilities. functional arrangements for coordination and defining critical areas where capacities need to be • To identify the most at-risk areas and building strengthened. types, there is a need to conduct a detailed seismic risk assessment across key sectors: • A national DRM Strategy would also fill existing residential, education, health, utilities, legislative gaps and bring the Moldovan communication and infrastructure systems, legislation in line with commitments under the and the public sector (including emergency Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. service buildings), among others. At a minimum, Establishing and empowering a dedicated focal buildings could be categorized through this point/national platform to coordinate DRM activities risk analysis into those that do not require along the entire DRM cycle on behalf of the structural intervention, those that need seismic Government of Moldova could also accelerate retrofitting, and those that will require demolition these much-needed reforms. and reconstruction. • Moldova should also promote risk-informed in priority high-risk structures and networks, land use planning that draws on improved and (2) an investment plan articulating how hydrological and seismic risk mapping. This these risk reduction efforts would be financed would help prevent settlement in floodplains and overseen. and could inform urban planning processes • Moldova needs to pursue the rehabilitation of and decisions regarding development planning, irrigation schemes to increase command areas, construction permitting, and seismic retrofitting increase water capture/collection infrastructure, and/or reconstruction of vulnerable key facilities and carry out knowledge transfer activities that and lifelines. promote climate-smart agriculture practices. RISK EMERGENCY REDUCTION RESPONSE AND PREPAREDNESS Nonstructural measures • Citizens’ awareness about earthquake risks, the • The methodology for quantifying losses needs risk reduction mechanisms available, and post- to be updated to include both direct and indirect disaster reconstruction processes is limited in economic losses from disasters; this will better Moldova. Local community groups could be guide investments into risk reduction and good forums for engaging citizens and building response efforts. their awareness of countrywide measures for seismic risk reduction, prevention, and • The ongoing building code reform and its preparedness, particularly in the housing sector. full adjustment to Eurocodes (Eurocodes 7 and 8) needs to be completed, including the • Early warning and communication systems incorporation of build-back-better provisions. should be improved given that emergency communication and disaster management Structural measures information systems are deficient in Moldova, and emergency response equipment is • Moldova needs to invest in urgent, high-priority currently absent or outdated. Enabling risk reduction works that have already been adequate early warning legislation and sufficient identified, such as the Investment Plan for resource allocations for implementation and Flood Protection, and develop such investment operations and maintenance would help sustain plans where they do not exist. Although this overhaul. Moldova has bolstered its capabilities in early warning, preparedness, and risk information, • To ensure a rapid and reliable response, actual investments in risk reduction are limited, subnational emergency command centers and especially given the variety and complexity of local response equipment need to be upgraded climate and disaster risks faced by the country. or rehabilitated. Given ongoing decentralization efforts, there also needs to be sufficient • Moldova should start considering the resources allocated for local level preparedness development of an investment program to and/or contingency planning. retrofit its public buildings and housing stock to better resist earthquake tremors. This would • Moldova should develop an integrated concept include developing (1) an in-depth assessment as part of a comprehensive upgrade of the that could form the basis of a comprehensive warning systems for various types of hazards. national strategy to reduce the seismic risk Impact-based forecasting should be pursued 10 to increase understanding of the potential RESILIENT negative effects of hazards. While the State RECOVERY Hydrometeorological Service can improve the lead time and resolution of its forecasts through technical measures, making use of those • Moldova should develop a coherent resilient data sets to achieve better outcomes requires recovery framework: by formalizing systems to improving current information dissemination enable effective assessment of post-disaster and response measures. Hydrometeorological damage and needs, recovery needs will be early warning capability could be strengthened more accurately quantified and characterized. through improved flood forecasting, modern ICT systems, and the use of SMS and • Once developed, the resulting resilient recovery (potentially) service apps. framework should be embedded into policies, legislation, and programs that promote • Technical rescue operational capacities within (incentivize), guide (ensure), and support Moldova’s existing DRM framework should be a build-back-better approach in recovery, strengthened by improving the management, rehabilitation, and reconstruction—for both the logistics, and communication protocols public and private sectors, and for individuals between response teams at the local, regional, and households. and national levels. Such an improved DRM approach would also help manage other shocks and stresses, including FINANCIAL public health crises such as the ongoing COVID-19 PROTECTION pandemic. It is essential to incorporate such crisis management aspects into Moldova’s existing DRM system which is otherwise primarily geared towards • The Government of Moldova should develop responding to natural and climate disasters. As and implement a methodology for tracking, seen with the COVID-19 crisis, Moldova’s existing recording and incentivizing DRR/DRM budget DRM system could provide a goodfoundation to allocations across the national system, and effectively respond to the urgent needs of cities should replicate this at the local level. and communities. To better anticipate such shocks or stresses in the future, it will be essential to • Disaster risk insurance mechanisms for non- adapt and scale up existing DRM infrastructure agriculture-related disaster risk events, such as including early warning systems, linking disaster flood and earthquake, should be considered, preparedness and response systems to other types and the existing agriculture-related insurance of crisis (health emergencies for example), prioritize for farmers should be overhauled to protect health service provisions and risk communication against slow-onset disasters such as droughts. tools for the poorest households living in informal settlements and other vulnerable groups that are • Ex post disaster risk financing mechanisms at-risk, generate education materials and public should be improved, in part by reforming the awareness programs, etc. For example, collecting, existing emergency funds or by developing new collating and analyzing DRM geospatial information, approaches, such as a Development Policy and making these analytics available to health Loan with Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown stakeholders to help them to anticipate and mitigate Option (CAT-DDO), that would also reinforce future epidemics could facilitate crisis management the country’s level of financial protection. measures. 12 CHAPTER 1 Moldova Disaster and Climate Risk Profile SUMMARY: Moldova is exposed to floods, While earthquakes are infrequent, their impact droughts, and other severe weather events; could be devastating and could significantly earthquakes, though rarer, have also had alter Moldova’s socioeconomic trajectory. devastating impacts on the country. The projected The Republic of Moldova is situated in a high- rise in temperatures, rainfall volatility, and incidence seismicity area. The main source of earthquake and severity of drought caused by climate change risk is driven by the Vrancea seismic zone (which are likely to render the impacts of disasters worse also encompasses Romania); in addition, there over the medium term, threatening hard-won are more local seismic zones where numerous development gains. To protect Moldova’s recent damaging earthquakes have been recorded. The socioeconomic gains and make development efforts relative earthquake risk is high in global terms, in the country as sustainable, building climate and and very high in terms of European comparison. disaster resilience is essential. Statistically, “strong” earthquakes in Moldova of magnitude greater than 6,5 which have the potential Moldova is exposed to an array of natural to cause widespread damage, on average occur hazards, whose impact disproportionately more than 10 times per century. Over the past 200 affects the poor and could roll back the years, Moldova has suffered 16 major earthquakes country’s development gains.2 Economic losses of magnitude 7 to 8, and the risk continues to grow from disasters are mostly due to extreme weather with expanding cities, aging and inadequately events, but high-impact, low-frequency seismic maintained public infrastructure, and the lack of events can also cause losses. Over the past decade awareness of potential risks. alone, floods and droughts caused US$1.2 billion in damage.3 Over half (57 percent) of Moldova’s The earthquakes that took place in 1940 (Mw population lives in rural areas, and 84 percent of 7.7)6, 1977 (Mw 7.2), 1986 (Mw 7.2), and 1990 (Mw the poor, many of whom depend on the agriculture 6.7; Mw 6.1) were the worst events of the last sector for their livelihoods, are concentrated in rural century and left thousands of buildings heavily areas. Hence the poorest households are hit the damaged or destroyed (Kronrod et al. 2013). In hardest by extreme weather events that disrupt addition to severely damaging residential buildings, agricultural production.4 The ability to manage schools, and hospitals and leaving thousands of extreme hydrometeorological events is thus of families homeless, these tragic events took people’s critical importance for sustained poverty reduction lives, left many injured, and disrupted the economy. in Moldova. The country’s risk profile—which blends For example, the 1986 Vrancea earthquake in extreme weather events, probable climate change Moldova led to two deaths, 558 injuries, and impacts, and seismic hazards—requires a robust approximately 1,200 collapsed houses (in addition risk management strategy and framework to reduce to 55,000 damaged houses) and left 12,500 people disaster occurrence. homeless in the Kishinev-Kagul region, with total damage estimated at US$800 million7 (BSSA 1987), potentially, a more limited capacity to recover from which is approximately equivalent to 40% of the a disaster shock, given that the southern regions country’s GDP. The education system was also have the lowest income levels in the country (UNDP heavily impacted, and more than 20,000 students 2017)9 and are highly dependent on the agriculture had their education disrupted due to damage in sector, including major wine-producing zones.10 schools (Daniell et al. 2020). Historical records reveal that immediate substantial damage in 1986 Floods frequently affect the eastern and was aggravated by previous earthquakes as well. northern regions of the country. Despite its For example, the central and southern part of overall dryness, Moldova is exposed to significant Moldova experienced a magnitude 7.7 earthquake flood risks: approximately 659 settlements (42 in 1940 (1940 Vrancea earthquake); this event percent of all settlements) are at risk of flooding.11 In caused 78 fatalities, left approximately 2,000 addition, torrential rains, hail, wind, and frost occur homeless people, and in neighboring Romania in annually within localized areas. In 2008, the country substantial destruction and losses equivalent to experienced severe torrential rains, which together US$10 million. From a building stock perspective, with releases from rivers upstream in Ukraine this seismic event was substantial: 256 buildings led to flooding in both the northern and southern immediately collapsed, 681 buildings needed some parts of the country and caused US$120 million in major repairs, and over 2,300 buildings required losses. The country’s May–August storms are often minor repairs (Georgescu and Pomonis 2012), localized, rapid, and intense events that include leaving approximately 400 families homeless— torrential rains, hail, and heavy winds, sometimes equivalent to 4 percent of the city population, separately and sometimes in combination.12 which was estimated at 53,000 in 1940 (Cutia Torrential summer rains impose a recurrent and 2018).8 Today, a major earthquake (with a 0.4 cumulatively heavy cost, as they wash out roads, percent annual probability of occurrence—that is, a damage the electric power distribution network, 250-year-return-period event) is expected to cause and cause other infrastructural damage. On smaller US$4 billion in capital losses, equivalent to 62 rivers, the level of flood protection is limited, as dams percent of the country’s GDP (World Bank 2017b). and dikes need substantial repair. The safety level of small dams therefore remains a major concern and In Moldova, the highest levels of earthquake local floods are caused by torrential rain within the hazard (i.e. the shaking intensity levels) are in country, with short warning times. In 1991 and 1994, the southwestern part of the country (figure flash floods in small rivers—specifically Raut, Ciorna, 1, left), but the highest levels of earthquake and Calmatui—caused the deaths of 50 people and risk (i.e. potential social and economic losses) did significant material damage (UN-Habitat 2016). are concentrated in the more centrally located Current annualized costs of flooding are estimated Municipality of Chisinau (figure 1, right). The to be around US$100 million and are expected area covering the Municipality of Chisinau hosts to increase by several times by 2080, as flood the majority of the country’s economic activity, with frequency and the volume of assets at risk increase average annual losses caused by earthquakes (World Bank 2017b). equivalent to US$8.4 million (see box 3 for more details) out of US$35.1 million (average annual Moldova is also at high risk of drought and losses caused by earthquakes for Moldova). Other extreme heat, both of which are exacerbated by areas of concern include the districts of Cahul and climate change. Moldova’s economic comparative Cantemir as well as the Autonomous Territorial advantage is its fertile soil and temperate Unit of Gagauzia, which have high earthquake continental climate, which have the potential to risk, limited transport network connectivity, and, transform the country into an important agricultural 13 Figure 1: Seismic Hazard Map for a 475-Year Ground Shaking and Geographical Distribution of Average Annual Losses Due to Earthquake-Related Direct Damages Source: Global Earthquake Model, Moldova Seismic Risk Profile (2018). Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 4.0 (CC BY-SA 4.0). For more information, see Silva et al. (2018). Note: The seismic hazard map (left) depicts the geographic distribution of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) with a 10 percent probability of being exceeded in 50 years, computed for reference rock conditions (shear wave velocity, Vs30, of 760-800 m/s). The seismic hazard maps are based on the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Global Seismic Hazard Map (version 2018.1), clipped to the country boundary. The average annual loss (right) represents the long-term mean loss value per year due to direct damage caused by earthquake ground shaking in the residential, commercial, and industrial building stock, considering structural and nonstructural components and building contents. Figure 2: Added Value in Agriculture and GDP Growth, 2001–2015 EPISODES OF DROUGHT Source: World Bank 2016. Note: GVA = gross value added. producer in the region. Agriculture employs 30 The severity and frequency of extreme events percent of the population and is the backbone of the have been increasing in Moldova and are rural economy. However, the country’s agricultural predicted to continue increasing in the coming sector has been increasingly affected by global years, posing a heightened risk to Moldova’s climate trends (USAID 2017). For instance, 7 of the agriculture sector in particular. By mid-century 10 warmest years in Moldova’s history occurred the air temperature in Moldova is expected to be within the past two decades. Historically, Moldova 1.7–2.0°C higher than in 1961–1990, and by the end has experienced drought once every 3 to 10 of the century to be 4–5°C higher, unless greenhouse years, depending on geographic location. In 2007, gas emissions are significantly reduced. The Moldova suffered the worst drought in its recent projected rise in temperatures, rainfall volatility (see history, affecting 80 percent of the country’s territory figure 3), and incidence and severity of drought could and roughly 135,000 people. The 2007 and 2012 undermine the long-term positioning of the country droughts caused estimated losses of about US$1.0 as one of the region’s major agricultural producers. billion and US$0.4 billion, respectively (World Bank Under this scenario, Moldova would likely experience 2007; GoM 2015). Episodes of drought, the most a significant reduction in the productivity of most recent in the summer of 2015, are increasingly crops, and be impacted by more frequent extreme driving fluctuations in agriculture value added, weather events –such as hailstorms, late frosts, major disrupting household consumption, and constraining floods, and droughts (see box 1) —and changes in overall GDP growth (see figure 2).13 The likelihood disease incidence patterns and the spread of pests. of multiyear droughts will probably increase, and, if By 2050, crop yields are also expected to fall by not properly managed, the repercussions could be up to 25 percent in Moldova’s central and southern devastating to the economy. regions. Altogether, climate variability, which may be responsible for repeated severe weather patterns, is expected to have dramatic impacts on Moldova’s economy and environment (ENVSEC and Zoi Environment Network 2012). Figure 3: Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in Moldova by 2050 Source: World Bank and CIAT 2016. 15 Box 1. The Abnormally Hot Summer of 2010 The summer of 2010 was the hottest of the last 100–120 years. The destroyed. The most affected district was Hincesti, where 700 houses peak of the heat wave was in the European part of Russia, Moscow in were destroyed. The month of June 2010 was one of the warmest on particular, where the temperature reached 42–45°C. Scientists have record, with air temperatures that peaked at 36°C. In addition, around linked this event strongly with climate change. In Moldova, the summer 300 percent of the normal monthly precipitation fell in June: a record in of 2010 also saw rainstorms and associated floods along with fires the last 124 years. In August, there were 15 days with air temperature related to the abnormally high temperatures. In July 2010, heavy rains above 35°C, something that had never been recorded before. affected 12,000 people. A total of 3,183 houses spread across half of the country (across 85 settlements) were flooded, and most of them were Source: State Hydrometeorological Service of Moldova, 2011. Figure 4: Overview of Disasters in Moldova in the last 80 Years 17 18 CHAPTER 2 Institutional, Policy, and Legislative Framework for DRM SUMMARY: Moldova is currently strengthening in Moldova is mostly articulated toward emergency its legal and regulatory framework for disaster response, rather than preventing risks and reducing risk management (DRM), but much remains to the country’s vulnerability to hazards (World Bank be done. An improved framework would enhance 2010b). Proactive risk management—centered on coordination across institutions and levels of strengthening preparedness and mainstreaming government, build capacity across institutions, and risk reduction principles—therefore needs to be generally become more proactive and less reactive given a higher priority by government authorities at in its approach to DRM. national and local levels. Disaster risk management (DRM) in Moldova The legislative framework for DRM in is currently performed at different government Moldova is centered on the Law on Civil levels and is gradually becoming more Protection adopted in 1994 (Law 271/1994). comprehensive. The institutional set-up for DRM The law establishes the Civil Protection is complex and covers various natural, biological, System “to protect people and property from the health, and man-made hazards. Moldovan consequences of disasters caused by natural and institutions involved in disaster risk mitigation can man-made hazards.” The Law on Civil Protection be roughly divided into coordinating emergency defines the fundamental principles of the civil commissions, early warning and weather forecasting protection organization at national, regional, and bodies, sectoral line ministries, and disaster local levels and establishes principles, rights, and management bodies. None receive adequate obligations of national authorities, local authorities, budgetary allocations. Although an adequate legal and citizens. Moldova has two key institutions that and regulatory framework is in place, there is a need deal with emergencies and disasters: to improve coordination and contingency planning, and capacity building is necessary at every level 1. General Inspectorate for Emergency of the disaster management structure (World Situations. The Civil Protection Force, Bank, EU, and UNDP 2010). Recent government created in 1993, has undergone various reforms have reduced the number of ministries, institutional and legislative reforms and is created new agencies, and shifted some of the currently housed under the Ministry of Interior DRM responsibilities from the older institutions as the General Inspectorate for Emergency to the newly established ones. Hence the overall Situations (GIES). The GIES is an all-hazard institutional arrangements are still in a state of flux. emergency response agency with the duty As in other countries with a similar disaster risk to save lives and property. It oversees profile and level of socioeconomic development, the planning, coordinating, and managing disaster legal and institutional framework dedicated to DRM preparedness and emergency management. The GIES coordinates the activities of national Regional and local governments are also and local agencies and authorities; informs involved in coordination with GIES and other local authorities of emergency situations; local departments, as well as in mobilizing organizes trainings for paramilitary, nonmilitary, local funds and other resources for relief and and rescue agencies for emergency response; recovery operations. District and local emergency develops educational programs for the public; commissions have a structure similar to that of drafts normative acts and civil protection the national commission and include heads of plans to be submitted to the Parliament; local governments and relevant public services. and coordinates research activities related As shown during the ongoing COVID-19 crisis to civil protection. It coordinates the political (see box 2), heads of regions and city mayors are and technical actors involved in emergency responsible for the day-to-day implementation of management and preparedness, including civil protection activities, ranging from response representatives of all relevant ministries. The to prevention, and they strive for the highest level GIES is the operational point for the National of autonomy possible in order to take decisions Command Center and ensures the coordination on a timely basis. During emergencies, district of interinstitutional disaster response efforts, representatives of GIES as well as members of local with a focus on information management. GIES emergency commissions are notified immediately creates five-year preparedness and response and meet to evaluate the level of threat to people, plans and carries out emergency response the economy, and infrastructure, and to agree on exercises every five years. responses. District and local emergency plans are updated annually, as are sector plans (for example, 2. Republican Commission for Emergency for flood protection). In addition, heads of regions Situations. In 2001, Moldova created the and city mayors are also in charge of emergency Republican Commission for Emergency planning with GIES, and handle planning, zoning, Situations as the main entity responsible for and construction codes for mitigation of floods, managing the activities of state executive earthquakes, and subsurface flooding. Figure 5 organs during major emergencies and for shows how resources are mobilized for “ordinary” implementing long-term programs to prevent disaster relief/emergency response purposes. emergencies and eliminate their consequences. The chair of the commission is the prime In the event of a disaster, the Parliament has the minister; the first deputy chair is the first deputy authority to issue a state of national emergency, prime minister; and deputy chairs are the state regulated by Law 212/2004, On Declaring the secretaries of the involved ministries and the State of Emergency, Martial Law and War. The head of the GIES of the Ministry of Internal law regulates the conditions under which a state Affairs. The commission is a permanently of emergency or war is declared and how it affects operating institution and is convened if danger citizens’ rights and obligations as well as the is detected or when various emergencies begin. enforcement of other laws. It establishes a common The commission also meets semiannually and methodology for assessing emergency situations, includes representatives from all line ministries delineates emergency situation zones, calls for and executive branches. Like the GIES, the an adequate response, and establishes how commission creates five-year preparedness information will be collected and presented to the and response plans. The two institutions hold population. Other relevant laws are listed in annex regular meetings to discuss, update, and ratify 2, and figure 6 shows the available resources in these plans. case a state of emergency is declared. 19 20 Finally, considering the small size of the Organization (NATO).15 Moldova has also asked country, regional cooperation is very important for assistance through the EU Civil Protection for disaster risk management, particularly for Mechanism on multiple occasions. With assistance cross-border emergencies. The country has made from the World Bank, Moldova is also upgrading significant effort to increase regional cooperation, its technical urban rescue capabilities in line with the guidelines set by the International Search and associated with the regional disaster mitigation Rescue Advisory Group (INSARAG); the goal is activities of the European Union (EU) PPRD East to strengthen its domestic capacity to receive and (Prevention Preparedness and Response to Natural coordinate international Urban Search and Rescue and Man-Made Disasters in the Eastern Partnership (USAR) efforts, particularly in the aftermath of Countries) program14 and the North Atlantic Treaty earthquakes and collapsed-structure disasters.16 Figure 5: Institutional Arrangements for Disaster Risk Management in Moldova Source: PPRD East 2 2015. Note: In 2016, the Commission for Emergency Situations was converted into the General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations. ES = Emergency Situations; CP = Civil Protection; ESC = Commission for Emergency Situations of the central public management authority; CES = Territorial Commission for Emergency Situations. Box 2. DRM implications for COVID-19 crisis in Moldova In Moldova and elsewhere, local governments are currently at the settlements and other vulnerable groups (the elderly, informal frontline of combating the COVID-19 epidemic together with DRM workers, women and children); (ii) accessing immediate emergency agencies both at national and subnational levels and different sectoral funding through increased fiscal transfers and conditional grants to actors. Local governments have important responsibilities in carrying out: local governments. • Community-wide emergency responses to prevent the transmission • Recovery by revisiting institutional systems to strengthen local of the virus and care the affected through (i) regulating the use and governments’ jurisdiction, preparedness and resources with operation of public facilities; (ii) providing essential public services; which to combat such epidemics and disasters. This includes (i) and (iii) coordinating among local governments, communities, and developing a multifaceted action plan for early economic recovery; other sectoral actors. (ii) establishing territorial coordination plans; (iii) strengthening zoning, land use, and territorial planning. • Targeted emergency responses for the most vulnerable people from a health and economic perspective, through (i) providing Source: World Bank 2020. comprehensive support package for people living in informal Figure 6: Available Resources in Case of State of Emergency in Moldova Source: PPRD East 2 2015. 22 CHAPTER 3 Assessment of the Current DRM Situation In Moldova SUMMARY: The current situation of DRM in Moldova lacks a coherent disaster risk Moldova was assessed through the World Bank’s management strategy to identify hazards, operational framework for DRM. This approach conduct risk assessments, prioritize risk makes it possible to compare Moldova’s progress reduction efforts, and mainstream risk and gaps with those in countries with similar information into its national, sectoral, and risks and levels of socioeconomic development. regional development programs. Moldova The framework identifies five DRM pillars: (1) previously attempted to introduce a national risk identification, covering hazard and risk DRM framework, drafted a National Disaster assessments and their communication; (2) risk Risk Management Strategy in 2015, and aimed reduction, including structural and nonstructural at transforming the Republican Commission measures; (3) preparedness through early warning for Emergency Situations into a national DRM systems, contingency planning, business continuity platform by revising relevant regulations. However, planning, etc.; (4) financial protection, which aims for various reasons, the draft strategy has never at assessing and reducing contingent liabilities, been adopted, and the required legislative and including ex ante and ex post financing instruments; institutional changes were never implemented and (5) resilient recovery and reconstruction (PPRD EAST 2 2015).17 The experience of these policies. All pillars are underpinned by a functioning previous and ongoing risk assessment initiatives across several sectors should be considered institutional, political, normative, and financial context. when seeking a focal point/platform for the risk These elements align with the 2015 Sendai Framework identification and assessment system as part of an for Disaster Risk Reduction priorities for action. overall DRM framework for the country. Over the years, Moldova has developed several strategies designed to mitigate the major hazards it faces, RISK such as floods, droughts, and landslides.18 The IDENTIFICATION defining characteristic of these strategies has been underfunding and reliance on fluctuating donor funding for implementation. As a result, many of the A better understanding and quantification of action plans remain unimplemented—though flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk are crucial risk management is a notable exception—and have preconditions for reducing the adverse effects of migrated to new or updated strategy documents. disasters. With access to comprehensive disaster risk information, policy makers and the public can Moldova has instituted a climate adaptation better understand the potential impacts of hazards framework, but gaps and challenges in its and carry out risk-informed planning and investment implementation remain. In 2014, the government before a disaster strikes. approved the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy as an umbrella strategy to create the enabling support provided by the European Investment environment allowing specific sectors and Bank (EIB), Apele Moldovei (Republican Water ministries to mainstream climate change adaptation Management Agency) has produced flood hazard, and risk management into existing and future risk, and reforestation maps, but its capacity to strategies; this process is meant to occur through develop such products without technical assistance a series of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and is extremely limited. With the exception of flood risk Sectoral Adaptation Plans for the following six mapping, very few risk assessments have been climate-sensitive sectors: agriculture, forestry, conducted that take into consideration not only the water resources, health, transport, and energy. hazard but also the vulnerability of physical assets The overall costs for implementing the Climate and people, which is critical to identifying the risks Change Adaptation Strategy and action plans were to households, public buildings, assets, and critical estimated at approximately US$155 million (World infrastructure. Bank 2017c). There are important implementation and sectoral mainstreaming challenges within To identify the most at-risk areas and this framework. The first iteration of the country’s building types, there is an urgent need to National Adaptation Planning (NAP-1) process, conduct seismic risk assessment across key carried out between 2013 and 2017, aimed to sectors: residential, education, health, utilities, include climate change adaptation needs in national communication and infrastructure systems, and budgeting processes, but the climate budget the public sector (including emergency service tagging guidelines developed under NAP-1 were buildings), among others. The extent of risk must not implemented due to lack of funding for training. be charted in order to develop DRM policies and Current budgets for sectors do not refer to or efficiently target investments dedicated to reducing include climate change adaptation. Finally, the NAP risk in the existing stock of buildings (including process left out important sectors with implications residential housing stock). For example, public for disaster prevention and risk reduction and education facilities, emergency services, and management, such as urban and regional planning national, regional, and municipal government and construction. Hence, the NAP process does not buildings should be constructed to a minimal life currently serve as a solid basis for a comprehensive safety level, with minimal damage allowing rapid DRM framework in Moldova. reoccupation and commencement of services. These buildings—especially those built before Maps for natural hazards exist, but risk the first building code, or those that underwent assessments that include exposure and additional unapproved expansions in the 1990s vulnerability analyses are lacking. Despite the or during a weaker period of code enforcement— lack of a coherent disaster risk assessment process, should be assessed for structural and seismic Moldova has produced (or is building the capacity safety. In many countries, an inventory of these to produce) hazard maps for most of its natural buildings is compiled as part of exposure data hazards. The Institute of Geology and Seismology creation, enabling the prioritization of buildings for produced an updated map of seismic zoning in more detailed assessment and then (as required) 2013 that reflects the seismic intensity of the retrofitting. At a minimum, buildings should be territory more accurately than the older map from categorized through this risk analysis into those the early 1980s (Cutia 2018).19 The institute also that do not require structural intervention, those that developed a methodology of seismic micro-zonation need seismic retrofitting, and those that will require and produced such maps for the Municipalities of demolition and reconstruction. Chisinau (see box 2) and Cahul. With technical 23 Box 3. Seismic Risk in Chisinau: The 1940 Earthquake, Then and Now In Moldova, one of the areas most exposed to earthquake risk is no major structure collapsed in Moldova during the 1977, 1986, Chisinau, the capital and the country’s largest city, with a population 1990 earthquakes, the possibility of buildings collapsing cannot of approximately 800,000 (2017) and a population density of 5,576 be excluded as many structures have aged, been modified and inhabitants/km2. Chisinau is also the country’s financial and business many have suffered the effects of the three past earthquakes that center—its GDP comprises about 50 percent of the national economy may have diminished their capacity. These numbers would put a (2016)—and largest transportation hub. Recent analyses for Chisinau tremendous strain on the emergency and rescue services as well as indicate that expected average annual losses due to earthquake are over the health care system. It is critical that the national authorities and US$8 million, the highest in the country. Given Chisinau’s proximity to local first responders are sufficiently prepared for such catastrophic Vrancea (one of the most active seismic areas of Europe), the relatively scenarios: emergency response plans and clear coordination unknown structural vulnerability of buildings constructed during the mechanisms across institutions must be in place, while emergency Soviet era and afterwards, and the features of its soft soil conditionsa, service buildings and health care facilities must sustain limited evaluating the seismic risk that citizens and the country’s economy damage and remain functional. are exposed to is essential. Moldova has experienced several major earthquakes in the last 200 years, the largest being the 1940 Vrancea • In this scenario, more than 725,000 buildings are damaged earthquake, which caused 78 fatalities, left approximately 2,000 people across Moldova, and 338,000 of these have structural damage (approximately 400 families) homeless, and in neighboring Romania and require urgent assessment for safety. As a consequence, resulted in substantial destruction and losses equivalent to US$10 1,141,000 people become temporarily homeless because they will million. In Chisinau – with a population of 115,000 at that time living in be able to go back into their houses once engineering checks or low-rise housing – some 256 buildings were destroyed, 681 required aftershocks occur. This population is in addition to 339,000 people major repairs, and 2,300 required minor repairs (Cutia, 2018). who are permanently homeless – which correspond to those who were living in buildings that have been completely destroyed by Since then, Chisinau has changed dramatically due to the country’s the earthquake. Both types of homeless population will require demographic evolution and recent urbanization patterns. Two different immediate shelter. Trained engineers will need to be mobilized to trends can be identified. The 1950–1990 period featured intensified conduct damage assessments and immediately undertake safety urbanization and increased population growth: in Moldova, the total checks to determine whether buildings are safe to reoccupy; this population increased by 90 percent, while the urban population process is often a major constraint on earthquake recovery, since increased by 5.4 times due to rural-urban migration and administrative related planning and training need to be carried out in advance. changes (large villages were assigned the status of urban settlements) Even with critical assistance from other countries to support (UN-Habitat 2016). The rapid population growth from the 1950s damage assessments, this process may take four to six months. in Chisinau and other cities meant large-scale housing had to be constructed by the Soviet administration; currently, the share of • Rescue and longer-term reconstruction efforts will be constrained dwellings built during the Soviet period (1951–1990) represents 72.5 by the fact that many of the roads and bridges are likely to be percent of total households in Chisinau (National Bureau of Statistics impassable: more than 25 bridges are expected to be destroyed 2016). The 1990–2015 period was characterized by slow demographic or damaged, and 750,000 tons of debris is likely to obstruct road decline exacerbated by massive emigration, internal economic factors, networks (out of the total 7.5 million tons to be cleared). Plans for and external shocks, resulting in a decline of the urban population – with debris removal will need to be established in advance: 7.5 million the present population of Chisinau being at the level it was in the early tons of debris would require 1.5 million five-ton truck removals, 1980’s. The large growth in urban population in the last 50–60 years, equivalent to 200,000 truck days of work, in addition to bulldozers, coupled with Moldova’s aging infrastructure, unfortunately means that cranes, etc. If 6,000 trucks can be mobilized, this would take the earthquake risk has increased since the 1940s, especially given that approximately one year. approximatively 40 percent of existing buildings in Chisinau have been • The cost of reconstruction to the buildings will be significant affected by four major seismic events (Cutia 2018).b given that up to US$5.8 billion is anticipated in terms of economic Given the characteristics of the Vrancea fault line, the lengthy losses (due to damages to the building stock) out of US$62 billion engineering damage checks currently in place, and the local population’s in economic exposure. This cost will put a large strain on the low level of preparedness, seismic engineers and disaster management government budget, the resources and capacity of local authorities, experts anticipate significant issues that could prolong or complicate and the socioeconomic situation of affected households. A timely post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction efforts. These include reconstruction funding mechanism must be in place to ensure a damaged critical infrastructure, disruption of businesses and living rapid recovery. conditions, significant duration for the completion of building damage- This scenario would likely cause severe social, infrastructural, and safety assessments and challenges in debris removal. If the 1940 economic losses that will have long-lasting effects on the people and Vrancea earthquake happened today, the consequences could be the economy. There is an urgent need to implement the necessary devastating: measures to address seismic risk in existing infrastructure (including • Recent studies for a repeat of the 1940 earthquake estimate that residential buildings), maximize public safety and local preparedness in a nighttime scenario, there could be approximately 190 fatalities, by engaging civil society institutions, and streamline recovery and 286 individuals with severe and in some cases disabling injuries, reconstruction efforts (including the need to better manage the transition and at least 4,200 individuals with light injuries, in addition to 300 between response-related efforts and long-term reconstruction c people trapped and in need of life-saving rescue efforts. Although strategies) (James et al. 2020). Sources : Alcaz et al. 2016 ; Cutia 2018 ; James et al. 2020. portion of buildings have already been used for more than 50 years and probably have insufficient seismic resistance. Engineering studies Note: a. In terms of geotechnical hazards, Chisinau is characterized by its show that 20 percent of buildings in Chisinau (in which 8 percent of the soft soil properties. A layer of sandy clay is present throughout the center city’s population currently lives) exhibit the highest levels of seismic of the city, including around the river (especially in the old city), at a depth vulnerability; these are local buildings of one to three floors built with of 2 to 25 meters (depth of bedrock varies across the city). This feature less durable materials (such as raw clay, straw, clay mesh). The height makes the city more vulnerable to geological hazards given the potential distribution of existing buildings suggests that most of them are one or for slope instability and large ground motion amplification (especially two stories, with only a small share taller than eight stories. However, the where the depth of the sandy clay soil is closer to 25 meters). few tall buildings host around 80 percent of the residents, making the seismic vulnerability of these buildings especially important (Alcaz et al. b. The first high-rises (more than four floors) were built in Chisinau in 2016). the mid-1950s, and today the most common building type is residential high-rises. Some buildings from the beginning of the 20th century remain, c. It’s also worth noting that a “pancake collapse” of the structures would though many are becoming unusable. Overall, only 33 percent of the influence the death toll markedly. buildings in Chisinau were built after 1980, which coincides with the phase during which seismic building codes were introduced (SNIP II-7-81). Another 27 percent were built before 1940, meaning that a significant 25 26 Better understanding and quantification of Agreement was to complete a flood risk hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk are assessment. The exercise was supported by crucial preconditions for informed DRM. the EIB under the framework of the European Moreover, several requirements under the EU– Neighborhood Policy. A National Master Plan for Moldova Association Agreement (described in Flood Protection and Prevention was completed in box 4) require hazard information, including the 2016. The process was initiated in 2014 through a adoption of several EU directives and regulations nationwide preliminary flood risk assessment that such as the 2007 EU INSPIRE Directive and EU resulted in a four-level risk assessment of all 12,000 Floods Directive. Moldova is currently revising km of rivers in Moldova. Flood hazard mapping and its legal framework so that the management of flood risk mapping were subsequently performed georeferenced data is in line with the provisions on the 3,400 km of high-risk rivers identified in the of the EU INSPIRE Directive. Moldova currently preliminary assessment (about 30 percent of all has a clear plan that foresees establishment of the rivers). Moldova is now developing subnational National Spatial Data Infrastructure and National flood risk management plans for the river basin Geoportal to store all official geospatial information committees. While a lot of progress has been in an INSPIRE-compliant mode and guarantee achieved, the domestic capacity to operate these interinstitutional data exchange.20 The Agency exercises without donor support is limited, and is of Land Relations and Cadaster of Moldova is currently being built or strengthened (EIB 2016). the main agency responsible for coordinating the National Spatial Data Infrastructure of Moldova.21 In addition, GIES has developed a disaster information RISK system that collects data on crisis situations for real- REDUCTION time emergency management and management of rescue operations (PPRD EAST 2 2015). The key tenets of risk reduction include both Moldova has implemented the flood risk nonstructural measures (those not involving physical assessment requirements of the EU Floods infrastructure) and structural measures (those related Directive. In the last few years, the country’s to infrastructure and physical strengthening) that water and flood management legislation has focus on preventing new risks or reducing existing been extensively transformed and harmonized to risk. Risk reduction should consider public assets and several EU directives. One of the commitments infrastructure; private residential, commercial, and that Moldova undertook under the EU Association industrial assets; building amenities; and the urban Box 4. International DRM Commitments: Moldova–EU Association Agreement The Moldova–EU Association Agreement foresees that signatory parties and bilateral technical assistance to ensure that it meets the obligations shall “aim at preserving, protecting, improving, and rehabilitating the under the Association Agreement. Moldova is also committed to quality of the environment, protecting human health, sustainable harmonizing its infrastructure standards with international and European utilization of natural resources and promoting measures at international standards by adjusting the national standardization system to the level to deal with regional or global environmental problems.” Article European one. Adjusting the national construction standards and norms 87 discusses cooperation in the key environmental and civil protection to the Eurocodes is an action of the National Implementation Plan of the sectors, particularly as it relates to floods and droughts. The Association EU-Moldova Association Agreement. Agreement sets a rigorous roadmap that foresees (1) undertaking preliminary flood assessment by 2018; (2) preparing flood hazard maps and flood risk maps by 2021; and (3) establishing flood risk management Source: Moldova–EU Association Agreement/National Implementation plans by 2022. Moldova has received and is receiving substantial EU Plan for EU-Moldova AA, 2014. and rural environment. The risk reduction areas the level of acceptable minimum standards for reviewed below are based on Moldova’s hazard and existing buildings mandate that buildings identified risk profile. as vulnerable undergo a structural evaluation by a licensed engineer to determine the level of required Nonstructural Measures intervention. The program should be accompanied by development of guidelines for possible retrofitting Technical regulations required for construction solutions in order to standardize interventions, give and urban development in Moldova need guidance to practicing engineers, and facilitate to incorporate climate and disaster risks. program implementation. The program should Preventing serious consequences of disasters also be considered in tandem with an energy caused by geophysical and hydrometeorological efficiency program in order to maximize the benefits factors involves additional costs in construction of building interventions. Developing a phased of buildings, restrictions on land use, and land investment strategy for systematic risk reduction protection measures at local and national levels. would help ensure that investments are first made Interior and exterior finishes, equipment, and into buildings that concentrate the largest amount of utility systems (sometimes called “nonstructural risk. components” by engineers) as well as building contents can represent 80–90 percent of the Guidelines for post-earthquake building capital investment at risk in commercial, office, inspections and safety evaluations should also and residential buildings during an earthquake. be assessed, along with the existing capacity of Reconnaissance following earthquakes in countries dedicated engineers to carry these evaluations. with a similar seismic risk profile indicates significant When a damaging earthquake hits a populated economic losses are the result of damage area, authorities must promptly inspect all the to architectural elements (such as windows, buildings in the affected area to identify which are suspended ceilings, and doors), equipment, unsafe and so prevent deaths and injuries resulting contents, and building utility systems. Damage to from aftershocks. Identification of all safe buildings these items as a result of earthquakes can cause for immediate use will minimize the number of deaths, injuries, loss of the building’s function, homeless, thus reducing the required temporary and economic losses. Any of these nonstructural shelters and the load for emergency provisions. components or contents placed close to exits may The inspections will be part of an earlier planned also impede evacuations following earthquakes. operation designed to cover efficiently and reliably Thus construction in earthquake-prone regions large numbers of affected buildings under the requires adequate steps in the design stages to usually chaotic emergency conditions created by an ensure that damage to these elements is limited. earthquake. Emergency interventions will be carried out to demolish dangerous buildings or portions The design standards will depend on the thereof and provide shoring to weakened buildings functions and structure of the building and the to protect them from the aftershock sequence. nature of the equipment and utilities within the For more information, see Anagnostopoulosa and building. In addition, guidelines and procedures Moretti (2008). for pre-disaster structural and seismic evaluation of buildings should be reviewed (and improved, if Moldova should also consider developing needed). Based on the identification and inventory standardized and cost-effective solutions of vulnerable buildings, a program and investment for buildings requiring seismic retrofitting to strategy to improve their structural safety should be improve their structural safety and seismic undertaken in Moldova. The program should define performance (including residential buildings 27 28 – see box 5 for example). This will also require available resources means that only 61 percent of assessing the current capacity of engineers to urban settlements and 5 percent of rural settlements design retrofit solutions, and review the adequacy have been able to develop Master Plans. Risk- of existing retrofit guidelines. For building types informed planning and zoning is therefore not an that require seismic retrofitting, standardized embedded practice, even when hazard maps exist engineering solutions for retrofitting should be (UN-Habitat 2016). For example, the Municipality considered where appropriate.22 Furthermore, to of Chisinau has developed a map of dangerous speed up the implementation process, preapproved geo-environmental processes, but its value and designs can be created for standard building types, usefulness are undermined by the fact that the with practical guidelines developed for engineers. Master Plan does not incorporate this information These steps will allow engineers to reduce design for zoning restrictions (UNECE 2015). Ideally, costs, achieve standardized building performance, mapped geological risks should be included in and have confidence in performing retrofit design for zoning restrictions within the plan to promote safe unfamiliar structural types. and efficient use of higher-risk areas. The development of updated Master Plans is With support from the EU,24 Moldova drafted another major challenge for Moldova, given that a new Urban and Construction Code that the country inherited inadequate Soviet norms has more specific and clear environmental for urban and regional planning. In most cases, protection and disaster risk reduction (DRR) Master Plans do not even exist; those that do date provisions than the existing legislation.25 back to Soviet times and no longer reflect current Moldova’s legislation on civil engineering/ development needs and realities.23 The lack of construction is being adapted to reflect EU Box 5. Addressing Seismic Risk in Pre-1990s Large Panel Buildings in Bulgaria Bulgaria’s exposure to earthquakes has increased over the last compromising life safety, the following factors were found to significantly century due to its expanding building stock and infrastructure, most of increase the costs of repair after an earthquake: (i) deterioration of which were constructed prior to the development of modern seismic facade and parapet panel connections; (ii) quality of dowel connections; standards. Still, efforts to quantify this exposure or better understand (iii) partial or full removal of internal walls; (iv) structurally unsafe balcony the underlying risks have been limited. It is in this context that the enclosures; and (v) soft roof story. World Bank undertook a study in 2018-2019 to understand Bulgaria’s earthquake vulnerability and inform decision makers about the actions That said, the uniform style and construction of LPBs provides a unique the government can take to prepare for and reduce the negative impact opportunity for strengthening and improving these buildings at relatively of earthquakes. low cost. This includes strengthening facade panel connections from inside the building, or from the outside along with energy efficiency This study looked specifically at the impact of earthquakes on large improvements, to reduce the financial impact of earthquakes and panel buildings (LPBs), which are home to almost a quarter of Bulgaria’s to reduce temporary homelessness associated with earthquakes. population. This study aimed to quantify the seismic vulnerability of Alternatively, for some LPBs there is an opportunity to add floors as part residential LPBs through thorough analytical and numerical methods and of their modernization, which would have the co-benefit of increasing understand how lack of maintenance and occupants’ behavior reduces the supply of housing units. The sale of the apartments added to the the structural strength of these buildings. The study sought to establish building could offset investments in seismic strengthening, energy the distribution and current condition of LPBs, their risk from damage efficiency, modernization, and improvement of common areas and or collapse in an earthquake along with associated financial and social utilities. There are many other actions identified in this study that can be impacts, and key actions that could be taken to reduce these impacts. taken to increase the seismic resilience of large panel buildings, including technical, administrative and legislative changes. The structural integrity and seismic resistance of LPBs were found to be affected by quality of construction, inadequate maintenance, weather- Source: World Bank 2019b. related deterioration, and post-construction modifications. In addition to standards for seismic design of building codes Structural Measures (Eurocode 8), which provide the basis for building codes considering a 475-year return period (10 Given the country’s significant seismic risks, a percent probability of exceedance in 50 years) and comprehensive inventory of the entire housing a 95-year return period (10 percent probability of stock is urgently needed (especially in urban exceedance in 10 years). The Ministry of Economy areas) to assess the needs for renovation and Infrastructure has currently secured funding to and rehabilitation. After a disaster, the largest adapt its norms to the first five Eurocodes. There damages and reconstruction costs are often in the are ongoing efforts to adopt the remaining four housing sector. Without a well-developed and highly codes, including the DRR–related Eurocode 7 functioning insurance market, these costs typically (Geotechnical Design) and Eurocode 8 (Design of fall on government as an implicit liability. In addition, Structures for Earthquake Resistance). Further work a recent regional analysis by the Global Earthquake is needed to develop the National Annexes and Model Foundation (Silva et al. 2018) has confirmed National Determined Parameters for the Eurocode, that the expected earthquake loss per year in which would reflect Moldova’s local hazard profile Moldova (for the entire country), averaged over and local design and construction practices. This many years (i.e., average annual loss), is US$35.1 work is especially critical for Eurocode 8, since the million, with 85 percent of these losses arising seismic hazard parameters must be developed from damages to residential properties. This shows based on the country’s official seismic hazard map. that the largest concentration of seismic risk in the country is by far in the housing sector. Moldova has Moldova has taken steps to address the a relatively new housing stock, but it is in generally increased risk of droughts through climate- poor condition, lacks sufficient maintenance, resilient interventions. Recognizing the and requires capital repairs.26 For example, the substantial risk that slow-onset disasters pose to the Ministry of Regional Development and Construction agricultural sector, one of the pillars of the Moldovan (now the Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure) economy, the country has invested in rehabilitating identified 468 urban homes with considerably some of its centralized irrigation schemes and modified or damaged structural elements. Such (increasingly) in implementing climate-resilient buildings necessitate a structural safety assessment agricultural techniques, such as moisture-preserving and will likely require major repairs or demolition. tilling and water collection/capture infrastructure. Currently, examination of dwellings to determine While many demonstration pilots have been their compliance with the minimum requirements set up in recent years and a growing number of is done upon request of the tenants or the Local farmers are adopting climate-resilient techniques, Public Authority (LPA), usually in relation to some the country will need to conduct a stock-taking emergency (UN-Habitat 2016). Despite the poor exercise to understand the scale of the remaining condition of its housing stock, 20–30 percent of needs, streamline its agricultural funding programs, which is currently unsafe for residents, Moldova and establish a concerted investment program has no ongoing plans to undertake inventories of to achieve the transition to a climate-adapted at-risk buildings and develop retrofitting programs agricultural sector (World Bank and CIAT 2016). for seismic rehabilitation to address structural weaknesses (UNECE 2015). 29 30 Moldova has no systematic national program for budgets. After a large event, reconstruction in assessing and reducing risk to public buildings the transport sector often represents one of the to maximize their safety and continued use greatest fiscal liabilities for national and subnational (with the notable exception of public hospitals; governments. Detailed digital maps of transport see box 5). In the event of a strong earthquake, networks, including attributes such as traffic it is critical to ensure that hospitals and primary volume, surface type, and level of maintenance, medical facilities remain undamaged and functional, together with detailed flood hazard and landslide with backup electricity and communications, to susceptibility maps and historical locations, can enable the care of injured as well as to sustain support evidence-based decision making on flood- key functions such as maternal health. Emergency related road closures and future transport routes. services (police, ambulance, civil protection Information on bridges’ location and vulnerability agencies) should equally remain functional. Public to collapse after seismic events is also critical for education facilities and emergency services, as well this type of decision making. Once this information as national, regional, and municipal government is collected, criticality assessments of transport buildings, should be constructed to a minimal life systems can be combined with data on vulnerability safety level, with minimal damage allowing rapid to support prioritization of resilience investments in reoccupation and recommencement of services.27 the transport sector. These buildings—especially those built before the first building code or during a weaker period Moldova has developed an investment plan of code enforcement, or those that underwent for flood risk management and has selected unapproved expansions in the 1990s—should strategic options for each part of the river be assessed for structural and seismic safety. system through a multi-criteria analysis. Moreover, any effort to improve the amenities and/ Supported by the EIB under the framework of or energy efficiency of buildings constructed during the European Neighborhood Policy in 2016, the “riskier” time periods should consider seismic analysis includes structural and nonstructural resilience of the construction before action is taken. measures costed at €445 million, which would In many countries, a register of these buildings is reduce annual flood losses by 63 percent. The 20- created as part of exposure data creation, enabling year phased investment plan includes identification the prioritization of buildings for more detailed of the most important measures that could be assessment and then capital repairs or even practically implemented in the short term. The retrofitting, as required. In Moldova, these data short-term investment plan costs 22 percent of the are currently incomplete and/or scattered across total; it would protect 44 percent of the targeted national, regional, and municipal authorities. population and would produce 54 percent of the annual benefits of the full investment plan. Given The costs to the transport sector from disasters the limited domestic resources, the EIB worked with can substantially affect recurrent maintenance the Moldovan government to develop a €60 million Box 6: Strengthening the Structural Safety of Moldovan Hospitals Following the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, Moldova implemented a hospital structurally safe; 32.4 percent had an average score, while 11.7 percent retrofitting program based on a World Health Organization (WHO)–funded had a low score. In 2016, following the implementation of the National inventory of hospital safety and resilience to disasters undertaken in Program and Action Plan for Hospital Safety Strengthening, WHO 2010. The inventory assessed the structural, nonstructural, and functional reported marked improvements, with 64.1 percent of hospitals deemed safety of hospital buildings. The structural safety aspect reviewed the structurally safe and 35.1 percent having average structural safety. soundness of structural elements and compliance with construction and refurbishment standards. Of 66 hospitals, only 55.9 percent were deemed Source: Pîsla 2016. project that funds the priority structural measures, Given the country’s disaster risk profile but a decision on proceeding with the project is (especially earthquake risk), the Government pending. The implementation of such measures needs to keep enhancing the country’s response should be a priority, as the 2008 and 2010 floods capacity and preparedness level, particularly cost the country US$120 million and US$42 million at a local level. This includes enhancing early respectively in damages and losses (EIB 2016). warning systems, modernizing equipment required for search and rescue operations, integrating preparedness and response procedures for both EMERGENCY RESPONSE medical and non-medical emergency situations, and AND PREPAREDNESS developing information campaigns targeting local communities to raise awareness on exposure levels and on possible protective measures. The CPESS Adequate preparedness is essential, as risk has developed a Strategy for Communication and can never be completely eliminated or reduced. Prevention of Emergency Situations since 2015 and Preparedness through early warning systems saves the Government has intensified practical trainings lives and protects livelihoods and is one of the most and education sessions in the area of DRR, but effective ways to reduce the impact of disasters. local organizations could play a more significant To be effective, early warning must lead to action. role to increase ownership and sustain these Preparedness activities therefore include enhancing efforts, while involving a wide range of population the capabilities of local organizations to plan for and groups, including vulnerable individuals (the elderly, respond to the effects of disasters. minorities, displaced, low-income communities, etc.). Several promising and innovative initiatives As mentioned in section 2, strengthening in this regard have been pioneered by civil society institutional frameworks to better manage organizations in neighboring Romania and could disaster risks has been a government priority provide some impetus to develop a countrywide in past few years (cf. figure 7 for more detailed public awareness and participation strategy, and information). Most progress has been made on stimulate a culture of resilience and safety within the preparedness and response side. The GIES urban but also within rural communities (see box 7 oversees disaster prevention, response, relief, for more details). and recovery. It is the responsible authority for alerting the population to hazards, while the State Moldova has also considerably strengthened Hydrometeorological Service (SHS) provides its hydrometeorological early warning operational meteorological and hydrological capability, but important challenges need to forecasts to all relevant authorities and to the public. be addressed to make it more effective. With In 2001 Moldova also created the Republican the support provided by the World Bank, United Commission for Emergency Situations as the main Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and entity for managing major emergencies. More bilateral donors, SHS has strengthened its capacity recently, Moldova established a legal framework for to monitor meteorological, hydrological, and a single emergency phone number, which allows climatological hazards and has improved its weather people to spontaneously call 112 to request any forecasting. Lead time for severe weather warnings emergency services across the country. Since has been improved from 10–60 minutes to three March 29, 2018, the unique emergency number 112 to six hours, providing critical additional response has been operational for all services. time for farmers, the public, and civil protection authorities. To ensure that these critically important services are provided sustainably, SHS will also 31 32 have to address institutional and legal challenges Currently, Moldova’s warning systems are related to outdated hydrological forecasting, limited outdated and have limited reach. The SHS is autonomy, chronic underfunding, and a limited required to inform the GIES about dangerous ability to attract and retain qualified staff due to hydrometeorological and environmental events. unattractive employment packages. A follow-up While the GIES receives daily information from World Bank grant recently developed verification the SHS and has in-house capacity to analyze and quality management systems in the SHS to meteorological data, the early warning systems systematically improve forecasting and help ensure used are obsolete (dating back to Soviet times) reliable services that respond to user demand. The and have poor reach (the sirens are in the rayon grant has also developed a National Framework centers, often far from the communities located in for Climate Services, which provides the enabling the floodplains). In addition to upstream sources environment for user-focused scale-specific climate of early warning systems, it is also important to products in important economic and security sectors highlight the importance of reaching the “last mile”: (World Bank 2018). such warnings are only effective if information Box 7. Community Resilience & Private Sector involvement: the CSO experience in Bucharest Known as ‘The Silicon Valley of Transylvania’, Romania’s growing tech of Emergency Situations (DES) and the World Bank, that will enable the scene is home not only to entrepreneurs, but also to engaged civil government to better channel resources and coordinate volunteers in the society voices looking to build Romania’s resilience from the ground up, event of a major earthquake (or any other disasters) to build a culture of particularly in Bucharest. This growing and dynamic coalition currently safety and resilience. Interestingly, Code for Romania has also imported has more than 70 affiliated members representing around 15 different best practices from Mexico in terms of tech solutions to develop an organizations active in Romania, and is driven by proactive leadership ecosystem of open-source apps to boost awareness and crowdsource and creative talent, as it continues to help transform Bucharest from a preparedness and relief efforts at a national level. Code for Romania is vulnerable city to a community of resilience. currently collaborating with Code for Moldova to explore similar tech- enabled community resilience initiatives in neighboring Moldova. Bucharest has a vibrant and innovative civil society network dedicated to scaling-up urban resilience considerations in collaboration with local Other initiatives include the Bucharest Community Foundation, which 29 authorities, especially in light of the Colectiv nightclub fire tragedy in launched the “Bucharest Prepared” program ; and Civic Tech, that 2015. Many are also deeply concerned about the potential for a damaging developed the “Fii pregatit” platform for the DSU, the Romania Red Cross, earthquake given that Bucharest retains the highest seismic risk profile SMURD Foundation, Romanian Health Observatory, National Institute for 26 among all EU capital cities and its proximity to the Vrancea fault line. Research and Development of Earth Physics, 4X4 Rescuers Volunteer One promising example of this kind of innovative partnership comes from Association, and ARCEN, which, together with ReRise, launched MKBT: Make Better, a civic-minded local development advisory group, “Antiseismic District”, a community-oriented program with the aim of which gathered crowdsourced data to identify more than 8,000 residents transforming one of Bucharest’s most seismic vulnerable historical living in Class 1 buildings that are in severe danger of seismic collapse neighborhoods into a risk-informed community prepared for future - highlighting the importance of generating actionable risk information earthquakes. Romania’s DES and the General Inspectorate for Emergency to shape inclusive disaster risk management policies. Clubul Câinilor Situations (GIES), in collaboration with municipal decision-makers, are Utilitari, is another Civil Society Organization (CSO) that works to train also spearheading decisive efforts to support, involve, and empower dogs in Bucharest to be at the frontline of forest and earthquake search communities, including large-scale earthquake simulation drills as well and rescue efforts. as other participatory methods to improve preparedness efforts, local response capabilities, and effective risk communication. Another example is Code for Romania, a local tech community, which has developed a new app, in collaboration with Romania’s Department Source: Calin 2019. is received, understood, and acted upon by the warning systems that are reliable, effective, and exposed population. This is because providing inclusive are therefore essential tools in disaster clear and verifiable information and guidance on risk management for saving lives and protecting the potential impacts of a given hazard event can livelihoods.30 A shift to impact-based forecasting improve end-user decision-making, resulting in is also needed, emphasizing not just what the more effective actions. SHS and GIES therefore weather will be, but also but what the weather will need to work together to ensure last-mile delivery do. For example, for many people a forecasted peak of early warnings and guidance, in particular wind gust velocity such as 120 kph does not mean taking advantage of modern ICT through SMS much, but instead a warning describing “wind that and (potentially) service apps. Redundant is potentially strong enough to knock over an empty communication systems are also needed, not just truck” is understandable and is more likely to prompt because mobile systems may fail, but also because an effective reaction. some areas are not covered by the mobile network and some people lack mobile phones (and so need Seismic monitoring capability has been to receive critical warnings through radio, etc.). enhanced in Moldova. Moldova is in a unique This is particularly crucial in several rural areas location to benefit from earthquake early warning given that Moldova’s economy relies significantly on (via wave arrivals or through crowd sensors such agricultural activities and has a predominantly rural as phones or internet); it is one of few locations in population. While GIES operates a modern national the world where the earthquake type is at distances Emergency Command Center in Chisinau (financed far enough to allow for shutdown of essential by a World Bank–funded investment project), systems, and warnings could give 30 seconds to subnational centers and response equipment (such one minute of lead time. Moldova collaborates with as response vehicles) need to be rehabilitated and the Romanian National Institute for Earth Physics, upgraded to ensure rapid response in all parts of the and the two-exchange data from the monitoring country (Kull, 2019). stations regularly. Moldova lacks a warning system for earthquakes, which in the absence of retrofitting Despite promising advances in forecasting programs should be a critical priority for the country. and warning technology in Moldova, it is still difficult to present forecasts and warnings in The World Bank has recently mobilized a grant a user-friendly way that results in protective to support enhanced disaster and emergency behavioural reaction, particularly in isolated rescue capabilities in Moldova. The grant funds rural areas. Global best practices also indicate are used to develop urban rescue standards that marginalized populations (such as women, in Moldova that are compatible with INSARAG children, elderly, and disabled) are often those guidelines. The expected outcome of the grant is most overlooked by disaster risk management to develop a local medium-size USAR team, build strategies, and require special consideration and the local training-of-trainers capacity, and develop focused attention to ensure they are not left behind. a national training and accreditation process for To effectively strengthen the links between wider other central and regional rescue teams. While preparedness efforts (including early warning this is a useful step forward, the civil protection systems) with the end-users themselves requires force requires more in-depth investment, both to multi-sectoral partnerships (disaster management streamline its capabilities in business processes agencies, national hydro-meteorological services, and to upgrade its rescue equipment, including the critical infrastructure operators and civil society building of regional command centers in Balti and organisations) and their information sources that Cahul. promote information and data sharing. Early 33 34 Finally, from a pandemic preparedness FINANCIAL standpoint, it is essential to ensure that lessons PROTECTION learned from previous public health crises31 and related considerations are incorporated into existing DRM systems which are otherwise In the aftermath of disaster, the financial costs primarily geared towards responding to of response, recovery, and reconstruction are a geological or climate disasters (and man-made significant burden on government finances, at disasters such as industrial accidents). Recent both the national and subnational levels. Following public health crises and pandemic outbreaks such disaster, both explicit and implicit contingent as the ongoing Coronavirus have demonstrated liabilities of government may be realized. Explicit the value of having robust DRM investments in liabilities include the reconstruction of public place to support preparedness more broadly (see buildings and infrastructure. Implicit liabilities arise box 8). More generally, DRM-related activities from public pressure to partially or fully contribute that could strengthen the health sector include: (i) to the replacement of private housing (for the strengthening health systems capacity to respond uninsured), emergency housing, medical care, to disasters by incorporating emergency response etc. At the household level, poor and near-poor into national health plans and improving emergency families may adopt negative coping mechanisms surveillance and response; (ii) strengthening after a disaster. The major asset of many of these pandemic responses, especially in the context families is their home, so damage or loss of the of regional and multilateral cooperation; and (iii) home represents a severe financial setback. Ex strengthening emergency primary health care ante financial planning is thus critical to manage the services. For instance, collecting, collating and financial shock associated with disasters. analyzing city-level and disaster-related geospatial data, and making these analytics available to Moldova’s budget legislation framework is decision-makers in the health sectors (and other based on Law 181/2014,33 which determines the sectoral stakeholders) to help them to anticipate and general legal basis for public finance: it establishes mitigate future epidemics, should be a priority.32 budget and tax principles and rules; determines Box 8. Moldova’s Preparedness lessons learned from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic revealed challenges and gaps in • The existing legal framework for pandemic preparedness and the National Pandemic Preparedness Plan (NPPP) in 2009. Intersectoral sentinel surveillance was adjusted based on the recommendations interaction, coordination and communication proved to be weaker of the NPPP working group and international experts: 1) case than expected, and public and private sector organizations and definition guidelines and clinical management protocols were essential services providers were not sufficiently engaged in pandemic elaborated; 2) a set of documents related to preventive measures preparedness and response. A NPPP working group updated the plan to was issued; and 3) documents for implementing laboratory-based ensure a high-level political commitment and involvement by the whole sentinel surveillance were approved of society. Pandemic Preparedness Self-Assessment Indicators were developed and tested in collaboration with ECDC and WHO partners. The • The MOH held a successful series of national planning exercises. following corrective measures were introduced: • Assessed national capabilities for pandemic preparedness and • An intersectoral working group was established to review and response together with ECDC and WHO using monitoring and update the NPPP. evaluation tools to optimize planning Source: WHO 2011. components of the national public budget and Contingency funds in Moldova are managed regulates inter-budget relations; regulates the by the Ministry of Finance on behalf of the budget calendar and general procedures of the government. Law 181/2014, About Public Finance budget process; and differentiates competences and Budget and Tax Responsibility, established and responsibilities in the field of public finance. two contingency funds: (1) the Reserve Fund, used The budget planning starts from mid-term planning to fund recovery needs in case of emergencies or of budget expenditures (every three years) through unforeseen events for which no budget allocations the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, which exist; and (2) the Intervention Fund, used to fund is based on financial sectoral strategies that are response efforts in case of natural disasters, revised every year. This work is coordinated by epidemics, and biological and technogenic/ the Inter-ministerial Strategic Planning Committee. man-made emergencies.34 Overall, some 70 When the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework percent of the Reserve Fund goes to compensate is approved, the planning continues with annual losses emanating from natural hazards. The budget planning for the fiscal year. However, allocation can be augmented by transfers from the structure of the state budget does not allow other budget lines in case of a widespread individual disaster risk prevention, preparedness, disaster. Public authorities at national, regional, and response expenditures to be identified. The only and local levels, as well as public institutions and exception is dedicated funding for civil protection nongovernmental organizations, can request and specific contingency funds. Nearly all agencies assistance from the Reserve Fund. Requests for involved in DRM lack the financial resources to use of the Intervention Fund are considered by the procure and properly maintain relevant equipment Republican Commission for Emergency Situations or to develop and implement programs and plans for or the National Commission for Public Health hazard prevention, mitigation, and response. Emergencies. Requests for use of the Reserve Fund can be reviewed by these commissions, or Civil protection funding is governed by Law by the Prime Minister’s Office. While much of the 271/1994, On Civil Protection, which establishes Reserve Fund is used to provide reconstruction funding responsibilities for the various actors. support for damages caused by disasters, the The GIES undertakes its own budget planning funds can be used for any contingency. In practice, following the three-year financial sectoral strategy however, the limited financial resources available plan, but available funds are limited and cover at all levels mean that disaster victims rarely only staff salaries and operational costs of the receive financial compensation. In some cases, civil protection organizations. They do not provide in-kind compensation in the form of construction sufficient resources for disaster risk reduction or materials to rehabilitate damaged infrastructure management expenditures, including trainings and (houses, schools, kindergartens, hospitals, etc.) modernization of equipment. The situation is similar is offered. The government normally appeals to for other ministries and agencies involved in DRM the international community for support, but the (see annex 4), which have funds to cover mandatory process can be hindered by the absence of clear costs (salaries, etc.) but not development, upgrades mechanisms for loss and damage calculation (see of technologies and equipment, etc. Hence these below) (World Bank 2007). latter costs often need to be covered via external resources (from the EU, World Bank, UN projects, While Moldova does not have any flood or etc.). earthquake insurance, agriculture insurance for a defined list of crops is offered, regulated under Law 243/2004. However, the current 35 36 agricultural insurance scheme needs a substantial almost inevitable, governments can put in place overhaul. Although the government subsidizes policies, standards, and institutional arrangements 50 percent of the value of insurance premium, for managing recovery prior to a disaster. Disaster there is weak demand for crop insurance among readiness makes it possible to integrate DRR farmers. Farmers are reluctant to be enrolled in in recovery—and only well-executed recovery insurance schemes for several reasons, including guarantees resilient recovery. Establishing the expensive insurance premium (7–13 percent institutional arrangements, policies, and financing of insurance value),35 a relatively weak legal sources for recovery before a disaster allows foundation, and mistrust of insurers (there are cases governments to avoid the post-disaster political in which farmers were not compensated against pressures and confusion of roles that so often the insured losses) (UNDP 2016). The market produce ineffective recovery. However, making penetration is estimated to be 2–3 percent of total a commitment to institutionalization is not easy. acreage. Subsidies of 50 percent are provided Allocating the resources needed to institutionalize and can be applied depending on the quantity disaster preparedness requires financial support of agricultural outputs, not based on their quality and political will. Inertia can hamper efforts or price. Moreover, there is no clear regulation to introduce recovery-related legislation and to assess the impact of the damage in order to corresponding implementation arrangements. adequately plan for the allocated budget (see next section); loss assessment is often undertaken Moldova has no systematic approach to by insurance company experts on site with the comprehensive and efficient collection of data participation of local authorities. Reinsurance is on hazard extent and intensity after an event. provided by international reinsurers, but is not Nor does it systematically collect information required by law. Nor does the law regulate triggers on sectors affected, direct damage and indirect or deductibles; these are negotiated between losses,36 or requirements for recovery and the insurer and insured on an ad hoc basis. No reconstruction. The national loss and damage compulsory insurance for all fields with the same system usually focuses on “damage” assessment, crop is foreseen. In this sense, the introduction and it will require substantial improvement to of alternative instruments, such as weather index ensure that Post-Disaster Needs Assessments insurance (drought insurance) and multi-peril crop (PDNAs) can be completed and lead to an efficient insurance (for hail, temperature, and precipitation and comprehensive recovery strategy (PPRD risks), could help improve small-scale farmers’ EAST 2 2015). To be specific, there is no unified access to agricultural risk transfer schemes and methodology for collecting, calculating, and reduce the public sector’s burden (World Bank and recording damage or associated economic losses, CIAT 2016). direct and indirect.37 Such an approach can lead to inaccurate disaster loss amounts and in some cases underestimation or duplication of economic RESILIENT losses. The existing legal and regulatory framework RECOVERY does not provide a clear division of roles and responsibilities, and therefore, clear expectations among stakeholders—local authorities and the Recovery efforts offer a window of opportunity to representatives of the relevant ministries at the reduce risk, as they occur when people are aware local level—are lacking. The Ministry of Agriculture, of risk, politicians are motivated, and funds are Regional Development and Environment already often made available. Anticipating disasters as uses the ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) methodology but and institutional arrangements with a clear allocation without operational guidelines,38 the GIES staff of responsibility during the recovery period, access and local authorities generally acknowledge the to actionable knowledge and information, and importance of disaster loss calculation, but have strong and inclusive financial protection provided no clear guidance and mechanism for assessing by a combination of disaster-responsive social losses. For example, the timing of damage safety nets, insurance mechanisms, and access to and loss assessment is not regulated: in some borrowing to finance the reconstruction (Hallegatte, cases, the assessment is carried out a couple of Rentschler, and Walsh 2018). Such a framework days following a disaster, and in other cases— is particularly important in the housing sector, depending on the type of hazard, accessibility of which is in many cases the sector most affected affected sites, etc.—it begins after months have by a disaster. Even though housing is a private elapsed. As a result, the existing damage and asset in most countries, the economic and social loss assessment system produces an incomplete benefits of housing recovery inherently justify picture of the economic impact of disasters (UNDP government support, especially when households 2016). A consistent methodology—and potentially are impoverished and have no access to insurance an information management IT system—for post- or other means for recovery. A standardized and disaster data collection could help collect, verify, predictable mechanism for post-disaster financial and aggregate data across administrative and assistance should therefore be developed. This sectoral levels in a streamlined manner, up to the would streamline and provide standards for central government. Such a system would allow for reconstruction efforts and help ensure a transparent a more comprehensive understanding of the cost of assistance process for affected households. disasters in Moldova over time, and could support Citizens should likewise be made aware of the efforts such as timely post-disaster compensation process for assistance and reconstruction.40   and recovery tracking, DRM budget allocation, international loss reporting, and risk modeling. Moldova currently lacks a build-back- better framework to guide its post-disaster reconstruction efforts. Disasters cause destruction, but also present an opportunity to build more resilient societies through the build- back-better approach to recovery,39 in which a community’s physical, social, and economic aspects are simultaneously developed to a “new normal” that is more resilient than the pre-disaster state. Experience shows that this approach significantly reduces asset and welfare losses to the affected communities. However, resilient and effective recovery and reconstruction are possible only if the appropriate legislation, policies, and tools are made available to affected households, businesses, and local and national authorities before the disaster hits. These are usually incorporated into a disaster recovery framework that includes contingency plans 37 38 Figure 7: Moldova’s Recent Progress in Building Disaster and Climate Resilience 25 YEARS OF DRM 39 40 CHAPTER 4 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS SUMMARY: Much of the current DRM in Moldova among several ministries and state departments, is still “traditional,” i.e., focused more on emergency local public authorities, and economic entities. preparedness and response and less on disaster Although some overall management guidance and prevention and long-term resilience. There has direction is provided by the Republican Commission been significant progress in selected DRM areas, for Emergency Situations, and vertical lines of particularly flood risk assessment and (to some authority within the system work adequately, there degree) flood protection, but additional work is is a need to clarify roles and responsibilities for required to ensure preparedness to seismic risks. strategic oversight, planning, and coordination, Effective emergency response needs further and for implementation of risk identification, strengthening through improvements in subnational reduction, and response measures for all hazards. command structures, facilities, and equipment, as Institutional measures, including developing a well as better preparedness of local first responders, legal and regulatory framework that addresses all authorities, public services, and businesses. On the hazards and promotes interagency coordination, are funding side, Moldova should consider fostering needed to ensure that the proposed investments in disaster insurance mechanisms, streamlining individual agency capacities are effectively linked. existing emergency funds, and participating in international risk-pooling mechanisms; these steps Such an improved DRM framework would could help ensure adequate funding is available also help Moldova better manage additional when disasters strike. Finally, a resilient recovery shocks and stresses, including public health framework should be put in place to ensure crises such as the ongoing COVID-19. It is that lessons from past disasters feed back into essential to incorporate such crisis management improved DRM policies, such as including build- aspects into Moldova’s existing DRM system back-better provisions in the existing construction which are is otherwise primarily geared towards norms. Moreover, in light of the ongoing COVID-19 responding to natural and climate disasters. As developments, selected guiding principles are also seen with the COVID-19 crisis, Moldova’s existing laid out in this final chapter to emphasizing the DRM system could provide a good foundation to importance of better linking crisis management effectively respond to the urgent needs of cities and necessities (including pandemic preparedness) with communities (see box 9 for more details). To better Moldova’s existing DRM system. anticipate such shocks or stresses in the future, it will be essential to adapt and scale up existing Although a broadly adequate institutional and DRM infrastructure including early warning systems, legal DRM framework is in place in Moldova linking disaster preparedness and response (see figure 7), especially on the response side, systems to other types of crisis (health emergencies there is room for improved coordination on risk for example), prioritize health service provisions and prevention and reduction and more in-depth risk communication tools for the poorest households contingency planning. DRM functions are split living in informal settlements and other vulnerable groups that are at-risk, generate education materials coordination in data sharing and management and and public awareness programs, etc. For example, help meet priorities such as seismic risk mapping collecting, collating and analyzing DRM geospatial and the development of a national database of information, and making these analytics available infrastructure and buildings and their vulnerabilities. to health stakeholders to help them to anticipate Additionally, hydrological/flood forecasting needs to and mitigate future epidemics could facilitate crisis be modernized. A common shared platform making management measures. multi-hazard risk information available to all relevant ministries and agencies should be developed, and A National Disaster Risk Management Strategy DRM risk assessments should be mainstreamed would help Moldova achieve this goal. It would into sectoral development strategies. provide an overarching vision and ensure that risk mitigation priorities are incorporated in appropriate Moldova should promote risk-informed land use national development programs. Given the limited planning that draws on improved hydrological resources available, risk mitigation should benefit as and seismic risk mapping. This would help much as possible from mainstreaming into ongoing prevent settlement in floodplains and could inform sector programs such as flood risk management urban planning processes and decisions regarding and agriculture. A national DRM strategy should development planning, construction permitting, be developed by key institutions and stakeholders and seismic retrofitting and/or reconstruction of in a collaborative and participatory manner, with vulnerable key facilities and lifelines. a view to establishing functional arrangements for coordination and defining critical areas where There is an urgent need to conduct risk capacities need to be strengthened. Institutional assessment (with a particular focus on mandates will need to be clearly defined to clarify seismic risks) and prioritize investments in responsibilities and avoid overlap and wastage disaster and climate risk reduction across key of resources. International experience suggests sectors (residential, education, health, utilities, that focal point responsibility for facilitating the communication and infrastructure systems, and the process of strategy development and overseeing public sector, including emergency service buildings, its implementation will be needed; the National among others). Although Moldova has bolstered its Commission for Emergency Situations, for example, capabilities in early warning, preparedness, and risk could serve this role. information, actual investments in risk reduction are limited, especially given the scale of climate and It would also be beneficial for Moldova to modify disaster risk in Moldova. As a matter of priority, the its current legal framework by introducing an country should allocate funds for implementing the overarching DRM law. The law would introduce flood prevention investment program, at least the the key DRM terminology, and define the key short-term program, developed with EIB assistance. roles and responsibilities for risk identification, Moldova should also start considering the assessment, mitigation, management, and finance development of an investment program to retrofit at the national, regional, and local levels. This clarity its public buildings and housing stock to resist would help manage potential overlap and assist with earthquake tremors. This program would include (1) overall coordination of DRM activities. an in-depth assessment that could form the basis of a comprehensive national strategy to reduce In addition, the existing risk information system the seismic risk to priority high-risk structures and should be improved, in part by creating a networks, and (2) an investment plan articulating consolidated multi-hazard risk information how these risk reduction efforts would be financed platform. This change would facilitate greater and overseen. At a minimum, buildings could be 41 42 categorized through this risk analysis into those Policy Loan with Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown that do not require structural intervention, those that Option (CAT-DDO), that would also reinforce the need seismic retrofitting, and those that will require country’s level of financial protection. demolition and reconstruction. Moldova should develop a coherent resilient Moldova’s early warning and communication recovery framework. The country’s diverse systems should be improved. Emergency community of disaster recovery stakeholders communication and DRM information systems are should establish a common all-hazards disaster deficient in Moldova, and emergency response equipment is currently absent or outdated. While recovery framework to better manage pre- and SHS can improve the lead time and resolution of post-disaster planning and operations. This its forecasts through technical measures, making framework’s performance would depend on the use of those data sets to achieve better outcomes ability of stakeholders to collectively identify, requires improving current information dissemination analyze, and document the parameters within and response measures. Moldova should develop which recovery effectiveness and efficiency are an integrated concept as part of a comprehensive maximized at all government levels and by all upgrade of the warning systems for various types of stakeholder groups (including businesses, nonprofit hazards; earthquakes should be the priority, given organizations, communities, households, and their potentially devastating effects and the lack of individuals). The framework should enable pre- existing mitigation/retrofitting programs. Technical rescue operational capacities within Moldova’s disaster recovery planning among all stakeholders existing DRM framework should be strengthened and formalize processes and systems that enable by improving the management, logistics, and effective assessment of post-disaster damages communication protocols between response teams at and needs in order to more accurately quantify and the local, regional, and national levels. characterize recovery needs and formulate broad recovery strategies. Once developed, the framework Financial constraints already faced by agencies should be embedded into policies, legislation, and involved in DRM should be urgently addressed. programs that promote (incentivize), guide (ensure), Nearly all these agencies lack the financial resources and support a build-back-better approach in to procure and properly maintain relevant equipment recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction. and to develop and implement programs and plans for risk prevention, mitigation, and response. The Government of Moldova should develop and implement a methodology for tracking and recording DRR/DRM budget allocation across the national system, and should replicate this at the local level. Disaster risk insurance mechanisms for non- agriculture-related disaster risk events, such as flood and earthquake, should be considered, and the existing agriculture-related insurance for farmers should be overhauled to protect against slow-onset disasters such as droughts. Ex post disaster risk financing mechanisms should be improved, in part by reforming the existing emergency funds or by developing new approaches, such as a Development Box 9. Considerations to strengthen existing DRM systems in light of ongoing COVID-19 health crisis Similar to other affected countries, local governments in Moldova • Prioritizing delivery of services and communication with the urban are at the frontline of combating the COVID-19 pandemic, jointly poor living in marginalized areas, including vulnerable groups (e.g. with DRM agencies both at national and subnational levels as well Roma, refugees, the homeless, informal sector workers, women and as different sectoral actors. In general, the strength and duration of children) who are more likely to lack access to such services and impacts of shocks such as COVID-19 are not solely determined by a information flows. country’s population density, but also by local capacity and level of preparedness to manage such crises, as well as by the level of functional • Assisting DRM agencies and local governments in providing responsibilities and resources available through decentralization available geospatial tools and developing related analytics. This systems. Moldova’s ability to respond to crises such as COVID-19 is includes risk modelling, rapid impact and losses assessments, therefore not only determined by its level of preparedness and readiness geospatial tools for real time analytics, expanding Urban and DRM to cope with such complex crises, but also by the level of effectiveness data systems to all stakeholders in the crisis and relief/recovery of its governance systems (particularly in urban areas), as well as its stage. Mobilization of multi-sector advisory services to support existing service delivery and infrastructure systems. Based on global ad-hoc needs. best practices (including recent public health crises), the following • Conducting multi-sectoral impact assessments for future risk- considerations could be examined to enhance Moldova’s preparedness in informed decisions, by helping local governments and DRM the overall DRM context. agencies in measuring the spatial and urban economic impacts • Integrating public health with existing DRM systems. Additional of shocks such as COVID-19 by leveraging the existing DRM support to frontline response personnel, strengthening and experience and methodologies for post-disaster damage and loss expanding emergency operations, development of awareness assessments/post-disaster needs assessment and recovery plans. campaigns and public awareness communications and • Improving financial solutions to maximize efficient response. Prior development of public – private partnerships. Also recognizing to disaster, development of ex-ante solutions to ensure adequate that disasters can, and will, still occur during ongoing crises such financial resources are available for all disaster types, including as COVID-19 and that these disasters will further strain emergency immediate emergency funding through fiscal transfers and management capacity as well as potentially amplifying spread and conditional grants. impact of ongoing crises such as COVID-19. • Establishing territorial coordination plans aiming to developing • Enhancing the capacity of municipal authorities to deliver basic incorporating disaster resilience dimensions into integrated services during the crisis. Development of business continuity plans territorial plans, engaging private sector and communities, for municipal services and advising on appropriate adaptation and strengthening local government’s capacity to lead of municipal services can minimize impact of shocks and ensure local coordination efforts as well as liaise with national and public order and calm. subnational governments. Source: Bhardwaj et al. 2020., World Bank 2020. 43 44 ANNEX 1 REFERENCES AND KEY SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS Alcaz, Vasile, Eugen Isicico, Victoria Ghinsari, and Sergiu and GRID-ARENDAL. http://www.envsec.org/ Troian. 2016. “Seismic Risk in Chisinau, Moldova.” publications/climate_change_in_ee_english.pdf. Presentation at the 35th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Trieste, Georgescu, Emil-Server, and Antonios Pomonis. 2012. “Building Italy, September 4–10. https://meetingorganizer. 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Hallegatte, Stéphane, Jun, Rentschler, and Brian, Walsh. 2018. 2013. “Chapter 3: Seismic Sources and Source Building Back Better: Achieving Resilience through Parameters” (PDF), in Bormann (ed.), New Stronger, Faster, and More Inclusive Post-Disaster Manual of Seismological Observatory Practice 2 Reconstruction. Washington, DC: World Bank. https:// (NMSOP-2), doi:10.2312/GFZ.NMSOP-2_ch3. openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29867. https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/rest/items/ item_108170_12/component/file_364681/content Kronrod, Tatiana, Mircea Radulian, Giuliano Panza, Mihaela Popa, Ivanka Paskaleva, Slavica Radovanovich, Bhardwaj, Gaurav; Esch, Thomas; Lall, Somik V.; Marconcini, Katalin Gribovszki, Ilie Sandu, and Lazo Pekevski. Mattia; Soppelsa, Maria Edisa; Wahba Tadros, 2013. “Integrated Transnational Macroseismic Sameh Naguib. 2020. Cities, Crowding, and Data Set for the Strongest Earthquakes of Vrancea the Coronavirus : Predicting Contagion Risk (Romania).” Tectonophysics 590: 1–23. https://www. Hotspots (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank cei.int/sites/default/files/file/Vrancea%20Paper.pdf. Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/206541587590439082/Cities-Crowding-and-the- Kull, Daniel. 2019. “Better weather forecasting and warnings Coronavirus-Predicting-Contagion-Risk-Hotspots save lives and property – Insights from Moldova”. Eurasian Perspectives (Blog). September 23. https:// BSSA (Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America). 1987. blogs.worldbank.org/europeandcentralasia/better- “Seismological Notes: July–August 1986.” Bulletin weather-forecasting-and-warnings-save-lives-and- of the Seismological Society of America 77, no. 3 property-insights (June): 1084–88. National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova. Cutia, Evgeni. 2018. “Characterization of the Seismic Zone 2016. “Energy Consumption in Household: Results of Chisinau.” Buletinul Institutului Politehnic Din of the Survey on Energy Consumption.” Chisinau, Iaşi 64 (68), no. 2. http://www.bipcons.ce.tuiasi.ro/ Moldova. https://statistica.gov.md/pageview. Archive/632.pdf. php?l=en&id=5413&idc=350. Daniell, James, Antonios, Pomonis, and Anna Neuweiler. Pîsla, Mihail. 2016. Siguranţa la urgenţe şi dezastre a spitalelor 2020 (forthcoming). Historical Damage Review din Republica Moldova: Raport sumar de evaluare/ and Earthquake Risk Scenarios for a repeat of the Evaluation of Hospital Safety in the Republic of Vrancea earthquakes in 1940, 1977 and 1986 in the Moldova: Summary Report. Chisinau: Ministry of Republic of Moldova. World Bank Health with the support of the WHO Regional Office . for Europe. http://old2.ms.gov.md/sites/default/ EIB (European Investment Bank). 2016. “Management and files/situatii_exceptionale/evaluarea_sigurantei_ Technical Assistance Support to Moldova Flood spitalelor_2016.pdf. Protection Project: Master Plan Report.” Technical assistance financed by the Eastern Partnership PPRD East 2 (Prevention, Preparedness and Response to Technical Assistance Trust Fund (EPTATF), Natural and Man-made Disasters in EaP Countries). European Investment Bank, Luxembourg. 2015. “Country Profile: Moldova.” Kyiv, Ukraine. http://pprdeast2.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/MD- ENVSEC (Environment and Security Initiative) and Zoi Country-Profile.pdf. Environment Network. 2012. Climate Change in Eastern Europe: Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine. Silva, V., D. Amo-Oduro, A. Calderon, J. Dabbeek, V. Despotaki, Geneva: ENVSEC, Zoi Environment Network, L. Martins, A. Rao, et al. 2018. “Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Risk Map (version 2018.1).” Global Earthquake Model Foundation. https://doi. ———. 2010b. “Project Appraisal Document: Disaster and org/10.13117/GEM-GLOBAL-SEISMIC-RISK- Climate Risk Management Project.” Report MAP-2018. no. 53050-MD, World Bank, Washington, DC. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ Stepanenco, N., and V. Cardanet. 2016. “Macroseismic en/905271491233095289/Moldova-Disaster-and- Effect of the November 10, 1940 Earthquake in Climate-Risk-Management-Project. the Territory of Moldova, Ukraine and Russia.” In The 1940 Vrancea Earthquake: Issues, Insights ———. 2016a. Moldova—Paths to Sustained Prosperity: A and Lessons Learnt, edited by R. Vacareanu and Systematic Country Diagnostic. Washington, DC: C. Ionescu, 101–112. Springer Natural Hazards World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/ series. Springer, Cham. https://link.springer.com/ curated/en/465041475522681625/Moldova-Paths-to- chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-29844-3_7. sustained-prosperity-a-systematic-country-diagnostic. Sutton, William R., Jitendra P. Srivastava, James E. Neumann, ———. 2016b. “Moldova Poverty Assessment 2016—Structural Ana Iglesias, and Brent B. Boehlert. 2013. Transformation of Moldovan Smallholder Agriculture: Reducing the Vulnerability of Moldova’s Agricultural Implications for Poverty Reduction and Shared Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment Prosperity.” Report no. 105724-MD. http://documents. and Adaptation Options. Washington, DC: World worldbank.org/curated/en/847331468184784843/ Bank. pdf/105724-WP-P151472-PUBLIC-STUDIU-II-BM- en-COR-final.pdf. UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2016. Post Disaster Needs Assessment System in Moldova: A ———. 2017a. “Disaster Risk Profiles: Moldova.” World Bank, Scoping Study. Chisinau, Moldova: UNDP. https:// Washington, DC. http://documents.worldbank.org/ www.md.undp.org/content/moldova/en/home/library/ curated/en/104501493718365772/Disaster-risk- climate_environment_energy/post-disaster-needs- profiles-Moldova. assessment-system-in-moldova--a-scoping-stud. html. ———. 2017b. “Europe and Central Asia—Country Risk Profiles for Floods and Earthquakes.” World Bank, UNDP. 2017. National Human Development Report Washington, DC. http://documents.worldbank.org/ 2015/2016. Chisinau, Moldova: UNDP https://www. curated/en/958801481798204368/Europe-and- md.undp.org/content/moldova/en/home/library/ Central-Asia-Country-risk-profiles-for-floods-and- human_development/nhdr-2016.html earthquakes. UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe). ———. 2017c. “Project Appraisal Document: Climate Adaptation 2015. Country Profiles on Housing and Land Project.” Report no. PAD2246, World Bank, Management: Republic of Moldova. New York and Washington, DC. https://projects.worldbank.org/en/ Geneva: United Nations. https://www.unece.org/ projects-operations/project-detail/P155968?lang=en. housing-and-land-management/areas-of-work/ housingcountryprofiles.html. ———. 2018. “Report of the National Consultation Workshop on the National Framework for Climate Services UN-Habitat (United Nations Human Settlement Programme). in Moldova.” World Bank Group, Washington, 2016. “The Third United Nations Conference on DC. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ Housing and Sustainable Urban Development en/918091577709080207/Report-of-the-National- (Habitat III)–Republic of Moldova National Report.” Consultation-Workshop-on-the-National-Framework- http://habitat3.org/wp-content/uploads/Raport- for-Climate-Services-in-Moldova. Habitat-III_-eng.pdf. ———. 2019a. “Moldova Economic Update.” May. https://www. USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development). 2017. worldbank.org/en/country/moldova/brief/moldova- “Climate Risk Profile: Moldova.” https://www. economic-update. climatelinks.org/resources/climate-change-risk- profile-moldova. ———. 2019b. “Bulgaria: Reducing Earthquake Risk in Large Panel Multifamily Buildings.” Final Report. WHO (World Health Organization) Regional Office for Europe. 2011. Influenza Division International Activities – World Bank. 2020. Urban and Disaster Risk Management Annual Report – Moldova Section. https://www.cdc. Responses to COVID-19 (English). Washington, gov/flu/pdf/international/program/2011-12/moldova. D.C. : World Bank Group. http://pubdocs.worldbank. pdf org/en/575581589235414090/World-Bank-Urban- DRM-COVID-19-Responses.pdf WHO (World Health Organization) Regional Office for Europe. 2016. “New Assessment of All Public Hospitals in World Bank and CIAT (International Center for Tropical the Republic of Moldova Shows Improved Hospital Agriculture). 2016. “Climate-Smart Agriculture in Resilience to Natural Disasters.” November 2. http:// Moldova.” CSA Country Profiles for Africa, Asia, www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/emergencies/ Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean Series. disaster-preparedness-and-response/news/ World Bank, Washington, DC. news/2016/11/new-assessment-of-all-public- hospitals-in-the-republic-of-moldova-shows- World Bank, EU (European Union), and UNDP (United Nations improved-hospital-resilience-to-natural-disasters. Development Programme). 2010. Moldova Post Disaster Needs Assessment—Floods 2010: Main World Bank. 2007. Rural Productivity in Moldova: Managing Report. Chisinau, Moldova: World Bank, EU, and Natural Vulnerability. Washington, DC: World Bank UNDP. https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/ Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ GFDRR_Moldova_PDNA_2010_EN.pdf. en/510961468046135528/Rural-productivity-in-   Moldova-Managing-natural-vulnerability. 45 ———. 2010a. “Climate Change and Agriculture Country Note.” November. World Bank, Washington, DC. 46 ANNEX 2 NATIONAL DRM-RELATED LAWS AND REGULATIONS IN MOLDOVA Most of Moldova’s laws and regulations41 cover the state of war and emergency is declared through a response aspect of the disaster risk management parliamentary resolution/decision. The government framework—but some aspects go beyond that: (i.e., the Prime Minister) and the president have the right to propose the institution of an emergency, • Law 267/1994 on Fire Protection identifies the which cannot exceed 60 days. Depending on the framework, principles, and duties concerning fire circumstances, they can request extensions (http:// protection in the Republic of Moldova. www.presedinte.md/eng/titlul3). • Law 271/1994 on Civil Protection establishes the • Government Decision 282 as of 14.03.2005 on Civil Protection System of the Republic of Moldova the Civil Protection Training defines the categories with the objective to protect people and property of population that should have mandatory civil from the consequences of disasters caused by a protection training. It also defines the tasks and training wide range of natural and man-made hazards. It methodology for emergency response preparedness. defines the fundamental principles of civil protection organizations at all levels and establishes the tasks • Law 93/2007 on the General Inspectorate for for public authorities (at national, regional, and local Emergency Situations (GIES) establishes the legal levels), institutions, enterprises, organizations, and framework, principles, functions, duties, and rights of citizens. the personnel of the GIES, as well as the conditions under which GIES services and work are carried out. • Law 1384/2002 on Requisitions defines the circumstances (emergency and state of war) under • Government Decision 1076 as of 16.11.2010 on which state institutions are authorized to temporarily Types of Emergencies and Information Collection seize ownership of goods and equipment from classifies emergencies by type into climatological, citizens and public and private institutions, or oblige meteorological, hydrological, biological, chemical, and them to provide services or carry out works in the man-made emergencies. Depending on the scope national interest or for national defense. and extent of the people affected and the number of casualties, it classifies the emergencies as site, local, • Law 1491/2002 on Humanitarian Assistance defines regional, national, or trans-border emergencies. Finally, the institutions (Agency for Material Reserves and the it defines the authorities responsible for collecting the Ministry of Health, Labor and Social Protection), the information that could trigger the state of emergency type of eligible goods, and the procedures involved in and the communication protocol with the General receiving and distributing humanitarian assistance on Inspectorate for Emergency Situations. the territory of Moldova. • Government Resolution 408/2017 establishes the Law 212/2004 on Declaring the State of Emergency approval of the framework regulation on host nation and War regulates the conditions under which a support in emergency situations. state of emergency or war is declared and how the • Government Resolution 803/2018 establishes the declaration affects citizens’ rights and obligations as Emergency Situations Management Center of the well as the enforcement of other laws. It establishes Emergency Situations Commission of the Republic of a common methodology for assessing emergency Moldova and the structures for ensuring the work of situations, delineates emergency situation zones, other commissions for emergency situations. calls for the timely notification of the population and an adequate response, and establishes how • Government Resolution137/2019 regulates information will be collected and presented to the organization and functioning of the General the population in the event of emergencies. The Inspectorate for Emergency Situations. ANNEX 3 OVERVIEW OF KEY INSTITUTIONS INVOLVED IN DRM IN MOLDOVA Aside from GIES, several other key institutions are • Apele Moldovei is responsible for developing water concerned with DRM in areas beyond core response basin management plans; maintaining the national functions: water registry; developing and implementing flood and drought risk management plans; maintaining the • The Ministry of Agriculture, Regional national flood protection infrastructure; and providing Development and Environment, recently created irrigation and drainage services. following the merger of three different ministries, has multiple DRM-related responsibilities, especially for • The Agency Moldsilva carries out afforestation works risk reduction and mitigation. It also oversees several to stabilize landslides and prevent erosion. agencies that have important DRM-related mandates, such as the State Hydrometeorological Service • The Institute of Geology and Seismology of the (SHS), the Climate Adaptation Office, Apele Moldovei Moldovan Academy is the main body for monitoring (Republican Water Management Agency), and the seismic events in Moldova. It is responsible for hazard Agency Moldsilva for forestry. and risk assessment, as well as earthquake warnings. Its seismic monitoring capability has been recently • The State Hydrometeorological Service enhanced.45 Although the institute can produce seismic monitors, forecasts, and issues warnings related to hazard maps, it does so on demand and not as part of meteorological, hydrological, agrometeorological, and its regular legally mandated output. some environmental hazards. SHS is responsible for hydrological and meteorological monitoring • The Agency for Geology and Mineral Resources is through a network of automatic and manual weather responsible for exploration, monitoring, and mapping and hydrological stations as well as a weather of mineral wealth, landslides, and groundwater levels. radar; SHS further utilizes observations from One of its main tasks is developing Moldova’s geodesic satellites and outputs from internationally operated information system to keep track of dangerous global and regional numerical weather models. geological processes, both in order to protect the It also receives and interprets observations and population and the environment and to inform the numerical forecasts from the Romanian National development of urban, spatial, and zoning plans. Meteorological Administration.42 SHS is required to inform the GIES about potential and actual • The Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure is dangerous hydrometeorological and air/water quality responsible for developing urban, spatial, and zoning legislation and regulations as well as construction events. With support from Austria, UNDP, and the norms and standards. World Bank/Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), SHS has been able to • The Agency of Land Relations and Cadaster join EUMETNET’s Meteoalarm, thereby producing of Moldova is the main agency responsible for early warnings in line with European standards and coordinating the National Spatial Data Infrastructure. benefiting from enhanced regional integration.43 • The Ministry of Health and Social Protection is • The Climate Adaptation Office serves as the responsible for health care planning and regulation. technical support unit to the National Commission However, most health care providers are directly on Climate Change, a permanent, formalized, and accountable to their rayon (local) administration. independent body that advises the government and The Rayon Health Authority, led by a chief doctor, is that developed the National Climate Adaptation composed of the primary and secondary providers. Strategy 2014–2020, which identified adaptation measures in six priority sectors: agriculture, health, water resources, energy, forestry, and transport.44 47 48 ANNEX 4 OVERVIEW OF WORLD BANK ENGAGEMENT IN MOLDOVA Natural disasters do not respect national borders, and to create a mobile weather and market information Moldova’s small geographical size makes regional alert system, and to operationalize a modern weather cooperation essential for any activity related to disaster monitoring and visualization system that supports preparedness and risk mitigation. Regional strategies in improved accuracy and lead times in forecasting collaboration with international partners to reduce disaster severe weather events. risk across Moldova and its neighbors have therefore been crucial over the past years. For example, the Government • In 2016, the World Bank developed a quantitative of Moldova has pursued regional cooperation activities country risk profile for Moldova (and other countries in through the Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Europe and Central Asia) to equip government decision Initiative for South Eastern Europe and through NATO. makers with more information about how floods and The World Bank, in collaboration with other development earthquakes are likely to impact at-risk communities partners in the region (UN, European Commission, and the economy. etc.) has also supported the Government of Moldova to strengthen the country’s disaster preparedness and • In 2017, the World Bank approved a US$27.2 climate resilience capacity. million IDA Climate Adaptation Project to reduce the vulnerability of rural households—who represent a • In 2008, the South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk disproportionately high share of the poor—to the Mitigation and Adaptation Program (SEE DRMAP), impacts of climate change, and to enhance the a joint initiative comprising analytical and advisory capacity of government institutions, key stakeholders, activities of the World Bank and the United Nations communities, and the public to manage climate change Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), risks. (This lending operation was canceled in 2018.) identified areas that are essential for reducing disaster risk in the region. Some of these areas are • In 2017, building on work to strengthen hydromet the focus of country-level activities detailed in this services, the World Bank began supporting the report. government’s technical and service delivery capacity for hydromet services and its ability to utilize weather • Since 2010, the World Bank—with GFDRR support— forecasts and climate observations. has supported the Government of Moldova in developing a national DRM system for extreme • In 2018, the Government of Moldova requested technical assistance to enhance at national and local weather events. Following the devastating 2010 levels its technical rescue operational capacities, floods, the World Bank supported the Government specifically for Urban Search and Rescue, within of Moldova in conducting a PDNA and in planning Moldova’s existing DRM framework and in line with recovery actions. The PDNA identified strengthening INSARAG guidelines. of hydromet services, data sharing, and early warning as critical areas. The PDNA also informed recovery The World Bank anticipates continued demand from the efforts financed by other donors and set the stage for Government of Moldova in these areas: future investment programs. 1. Integrating public health into existing DRM • Also in 2010, the World Bank began supporting systems (including strengthening the activities in Moldova to reduce natural hazard risk, implementation of pandemic preparedness plans particularly in agriculture and related sectors, and through cross-sector/multi-agency collaboration to reduce economic vulnerability to natural shocks. 2. Building resilience and adaptation to climate These activities helped inform a US$10 million IDA impacts, especially in the agricultural sector (International Development Association) Disaster and 3. Identifying flexible disaster risk financing Climate Risk Management Project that supported the instruments development of hydromet services, civil protection, 4. Leveraging regional collaboration and existing and climate-smart agriculture. Additional financing of European meteorological infrastructure to improve US$2 million for this project helped to establish the local forecasting of trans-boundary weather Emergency Command Center for disaster response, phenomena. ANNEX 5 OVERVIEW OF MAIN DONOR ENGAGEMENTS IN DRM AND CCA Several development partners are active in the area of European Investment Bank, Austrian Development climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk Cooperation, Swiss Development Agency, UNDP, USAID, management in Moldova, including the European Union, and International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Preparedness identification protection Development reduction Area of focus Financial Resilient recovery Government counterpart partner (or hazard) Risk Risk Austrian Development Climate-smart agriculture Cooperation (ADA) Energy efficiency, urban water management, civil European GIES, Ministry of Construction, protection, EU Floods Commission Apele Moldovei Directive, Eurocode building code, INSPIRE European Flood risk management Apele Moldovei Investment Bank Solid waste management, GIZ energy efficiency, climate policy, water management Ministry of Agriculture, Regional IFAD Climate-smart agriculture Development and Environment Swiss Disaster risk reduction, Development emergency relief and Cooperation reconstruction Ministry of Agriculture, Regional Devel- opment and Environment; Municipality Civil protection, climate of Chisinau; Energy Efficiency Agency; change adaptation, urban UNDP Energy Efficiency Fund; licensed urban regeneration, disaster risk design companies; Technical University assessment of Moldova; Agency for Innovation and Technology Transfer USAID/MCC Climate-smart agriculture WMO/Finnish Meteorological Hydromet improvement State Hydrometeorological Service Institute/UNISDR Seismic risk identification WHO and retrofitting for hospital Ministry of Health buildings Note: GIZ = German Agency for International Cooperation; MCC = Millennium Challenge Corporation; WMO = World Meteorological Organization. 49 50 NOTES 1. In February 2020, Moldova launched the review of slight to moderate damage. Poorly designed structures the unfinished strategy, with support from UNDP and are likely to receive moderate to severe damage. This UNDRR, to: a) assess its alignment to a modern DRM type of earthquake can also be felt in wider areas (up framework and the Sendai Framework commitments; to hundreds of miles/kilometers from the epicenter) and b) subsequently finalize the document. and cause strong to violent shaking in the epicentral area. Such indications should be taken with extreme 2. According to the World Bank, the economy of caution, since intensity and thus ground effects depend Moldova has grown rapidly in the past decade, and not only on the magnitude, but also on the distance growth has been accompanied by significant progress to the epicenter, the depth of the earthquake’s focus in reducing poverty and boosting the welfare of the beneath the epicenter, the location of the epicenter, bottom 40 percent. For example, between 2000 and and geological conditions (certain terrains can amplify 2015, Moldova was also able to eliminate extreme seismic signals). poverty (defined as living on less than $1.90 per day in 2011 purchasing power parities), which decreased 6. Moment magnitude (Mw ) is considered the from 36 percent (2000) to 0 percent (2015). Poverty authoritative magnitude scale for ranking earthquakes remains a significant rural phenomenon in Moldova, by size. It has become the standard scale used by however. Defined according to the national poverty seismological authorities like the U.S. Geological line, poverty levels in Moldova declined substantially Survey for reporting large earthquakes (typically Mw and stood at 11 percent in 2014, compared with 26 > 4). The moment magnitude scale (MMS; denoted percent in 2007 and much higher levels earlier in the explicitly with Mw  or Mw, and generally implied with decade. However, further reductions in poverty due to use of a single M for magnitude) is a measure of an pensions and remittances are unlikely to be realized earthquake’s magnitude (“size” or strength) based on in light of the current coronavirus crisis as economic its seismic moment (Bormann et al. 2013). activity in sender countries declines and as public finances become strained. Additionally, the adverse 7. Assuming that damages of the 1986 earthquake are effects of the crisis on the labor income and health of representative of the most important seismic event earners could lead to increases in poverty. Individuals of the past 200 years, the average annual damages at the bottom of the consumption distribution are are calculated at US$40.8 million (including direct and particularly vulnerable to these health and income indirect losses). shocks as they often lack adequate coping strategies and insurance mechanisms. In order to mitigate the 8. After the disastrous effects of the January 23, 1838, effect of the crisis on these vulnerable individuals, Vrancea earthquake in Chisinau, a limit of two stories adequate health and social security provisions will was imposed on building construction, restrictions that need to be implemented. were still in effect at the time of the 1940 earthquake (Stepanenco and Cardanet 2016). 3. During the 2011–2016 period, all disasters reported by the Civil Protection and Emergency Situations 9. The highest salaries are paid in Chisinau, while the Service (CPESS)—now replaced by the General lowest salaries are paid in the southern region (UNDP Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (GIES)—were 2017). weather and climate related. The 2007 drought caused estimated losses of about US$1 billion, while 10. The wine industry is especially vulnerable to the 2008 and 2010 floods cost the country about earthquakes due to the high risk of steel tank failure US$120 million and US$42 million respectively. and wine bottle breakage. Currently, Moldova has the highest GDP share derived from the wine industry 4. The latest Moldova Economic Update (World Bank of any country, and around 200,000 people (20 2019a) indicates that extreme weather constitutes percent of the economically active population) earn one of the main challenges to growth and poverty a living from the wine industry in Moldova. DW.com, alleviation efforts, given that it directly disrupts “The Increasingly Acquired Taste of Moldovan Wine,” October 11, 2018, https://www.dw.com/ agricultural production and affects vulnerable rural en/the-increasingly-acquired-taste-of-moldovan- communities. wine/a-45796665. In addition, the region of Cahul was identified by the Wine Risk index as having the third 5. Earthquakes with a 6.0–6.9 magnitude (Richter scale) highest risk from natural perils (earthquake, hail, frost, are categorized as “strong.” The typical average and floods) among all the world’s wine regions. KIT. effects from such events include damage to a edu, “Winemakers Lose Billions of Dollars Every Year moderate number of well-built structures in populated due to Natural Disasters,” April 26, 2017, https://www. areas. Earthquake-resistant structures survive with kit.edu/kit/english/pi_2017_051_winemakers-lose- 21. The Agency of Land Relations and Cadaster carries billions-of-dollars-every-year-due-to-natural-disasters. out execution, control, supervision, and other functions php. in land relations, geodesy, mapping, cadaster, and Geographic Information System activities, as well as 11. The worst flood in Moldova since its independence (to some extent) Land Information System activities. in 1991 occurred in 1994; it killed close to 50 people The goal is to build up the structure of the country’s and caused almost US$500 million in damage. In National Spatial Data Infrastructure. 1997, floods occurred in 28 of 40 provinces, causing nine deaths and about US$70 million in damage. 22. The following factors may be considered for potential Further flooding occurred in 1999, 2002, and 2005 scalability: safety benefits, minimal disruption, potential with smaller impacts, ranging from US$1 million to to integrate with existing government programs, cost- about US$10 million in damage. effectiveness, and appropriateness to local context. 12. For example, in 2016, intense rain flooded the insides 23. Current needs are articulated in Law no. 835-XIII, of buildings after their roofs were destroyed by hail. On the Principles of Urban Planning and Territorial Summer rainfall is generally unpredictable and often Development (May 1996). See UNECE (2015). dangerous. Moldova’s central zone (Codru) is at greater risk than the northern zone. 24. The EU–Moldova relationship enhancement policy has allowed Moldova to benefit from the experience 13. In Moldova, most farm households are smallholders, of EU states at central and local level in regional who tend to be poorer and less buffered against development, spatial planning, energy efficiency, shocks than larger farmers. More than one-third of and construction technical standards. The principles all farm households reported difficulties in paying and approaches promoted by the EU directives are for decent nutrition for household members over followed by the Moldovan authorities in the process the previous year. The numbers are higher among of improving the legislation on housing and basic subsistence farm households, who consume more services. than 99 percent of their farm production (compared to around 80 percent for smallholders), leaving little for 25. The Urban and Construction Code was approved in the income generation (World Bank 2016b). first reading by the outgoing Parliament. The approval of the code in the final reading is still pending as of 14. For more information, see PPRD East 2, “Moldova,” February 2020. http://pprdeast2.eu/en/strany-partnery/moldova/. 26. According to a United Nations Development 15. Moldova is developing its national civil emergency Programme survey cited in UNECE (2015), 7 percent and disaster management capabilities through of Moldova’s population currently lives in dilapidated or participation in activities organized by NATO’s Euro- poor-quality housing. Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre. 27. For example, any buildings in high-flood areas should 16. This INSARAG-related activity corresponds to the consider safety of citizens accessing the building and Enhancing Technical Rescue Capacities in Moldova make sure expensive internal fittings (e.g., medical technical assistance, funded by a Global Facility for equipment) are kept on higher levels and/or can be Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) grant moved if flood threatens. and which closed in November 30, 2019. 28. Over the last century, Romania has experienced 13 17. In February 2020, Moldova launched the review major earthquakes, which claimed the lives of over of the unfinished strategy with support from UNDP 2,600 people and affected more than 400,000 others. and UNDRR with the expectation to finalize it. The In 1977, more than 35,000 families were left homeless recommendations that follow from the preliminary in a catastrophic earthquake that caused over EUR 1.8 assessment are broadly in line with the observations billion in losses in 55 seconds. and recommendations made in the present note. 29. The “Bucharest Prepared” program, managed by the 18. These include, for example, the Environmental Bucharest Community Foundation and backed by ING, Strategy for 2014–2023; the Program for the IKEA and LIDL, is a new grant funding mechanism Conservation and Increase of Soil Fertility (2011– that aims to support CSOs in raising awareness on 2020), and a national afforestation plan (2014–2018) earthquake risks, create support systems in local designed to extend forest vegetation on 13,050 ha of communities, and promote life-saving behavior among degraded lands. citizens. 19. The seismic zonation consists of mapping and 30. For more information: https://practicalaction.org/news- dividing with isolines the region where the earthquake media/2018/07/11/reaching-the-last-mile-challenges- can be felt more or less with the same intensity. and-lessons-from-early-warning-systems/ 20. The geoportal would act as an interface to a national 31. For example, one of the key lessons from the 2005 or sectoral metadata catalog that enables users— Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is that state bodies, private companies, and citizens—to speed of response is important in public health search for spatial data that they can use for their emergencies, where prevention is more humane purposes. and cost-effective than ex-post treatment and 51 mitigation. In countries such as Vietnam, the level of 52 preparedness was a key factor. Similarly, Moldova 38. ECLAC is a pioneer in the field of disaster assessment has also prepared national strategy documents and in the development and dissemination of the and action plans. Another lesson from Vietnam that Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) methodology has been applied in Moldova is the success of a and PDNA methodology. two-pronged strategy: first, the control of influenza in high-risk regions, and second, simultaneous 39. This approach represents Priority 4 of the Sendai actions to minimize risks to humans and to rapidly Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and is based prepare for a pandemic. Source: http://documents. on a three-pillar approach to recovery efforts: (1) worldbank.org/curated/en/968771468322474039/pdf/ building back stronger to ensure that the affected Project0Inform1l0Stage1final1Mar-29.pdf infrastructure is more resilient to future shocks; (2) building back faster (under streamlined legislation) 32. Recent progress in mapping transportation through such measures as contingent reconstruction networks, including semi-formal urban transit, and plans, preapproved contracts, and financial in the geo-location of jobs, people and important arrangements; and (3) building back more inclusively to infrastructure, such as health centers, are providing ensure that low-income households receive adequate an opportunity to understand the impacts of disasters support. on the ability to reach key destinations. As argued in the Lifelines report, beyond the destruction of 40. The financial assistance mechanisms could include infrastructure, disasters have large costs for firms (but not be not limited to) individual and household and households because they disrupt the functioning disaster subsidies, low-interest reconstruction loans, of the economy. People are unable to get to work, and tax subsidies. A post-disaster assistance program schools, or hospitals, and key supplies are cut off should include standardized application and approval from firms that depend on consumers and suppliers processes, definition of eligibility, maximum payouts, to maintain commercial operations. Until recently, and clear time frames. it was difficult to explore how disasters impacted these flows, but a series of technological advances 41. Note that some of the regulations are currently being are now helping experts overcome this data scarcity. redrafted as the government adapts to its major Local communities can now relatively easily indicate administrative reorganization. For example, the the existence of a road and its condition, on platform Regulations for the Organization and Operation of called OpenStreetMap, and indicate the location of the GIES are being amended to reflect the transfer of service infrastructure such as health centers. the compliance and control function to the Agency for Technical Supervision. 33. Most of the material in this paragraph and the next originally appeared in the EU PPRD Moldova country 42. SHS provides short-term (up to one week) weather profile report (PPRD East 2 2015), which the World forecasts for the entire country and hydrological Bank gratefully acknowledges. forecasts for the main river basins. Flood forecasts on the timing of expected peak river levels and flows are provided for the two major rivers of Moldova, 34. Other funds, such as the Environmental Fund, the the Dniester and Prut. For smaller watercourses at Regional Development Fund, and the National risk of rapid-onset flash floods, only general weather Fund for Agricultural and Rural Development, have forecasts are available. SHS provides 10-day forecasts financed mitigation and prevention efforts but are for precipitation, soil moisture, snow depth, and not contingency funds per se. For example, the ice thickness on rivers and reservoirs, supporting Rural Development Fund provides subsidies to preparedness. eligible farmers for anti-hail equipment/nets, while the Environmental Fund funded Apele Moldovei’s 43. Meteoalarm is the official website of Europe’s national strengthening of the Ghidicici Reservoir dam to weather services that provides advice on exceptional prevent flooding of Chisinau and parts of Anenii-Noi weather. Meteoalarm is developed by EUMETNET, the district. network of public European weather services that are members of the World Meteorological Organization. 35. The subsidies for agricultural insurance account for It is further expanding to the east to ensure that 30 roughly 1 percent of total agricultural subsidies. The European countries can collaborate to enhance premium rates are quite high: 5–6 percent for hail, Meteoalarm. 1.5–3 percent for frost, and 7–9 percent for drought, if the perils are insured separately. Moreover, the two 44. The National Commission for Climate Change is (out of 33) insurance companies that offer agricultural responsible for implementing commitments under the risk insurance (namely Klassika Asigurari and ASITO) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate only ensure high-value crops against hail and frost; Change and the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms. they do not cover natural hazards such as drought. 45. Data recorded by the monitoring stations are sent to 36. Direct damages include replacement of damaged the National Data Center, where they are processed building and infrastructure, whereas indirect losses for real-time data analysis to provide automatic event may include costs associated with loss of transport detection, event location, and magnitude calculation. activities or with business interruption, etc. Moldova also collaborates with the Romanian National Institute for Earth Physics, and regularly exchanges 37. The current practice is based on simple common data through the monitoring stations. sense; it estimates the minimum market price of a damaged unit (e.g., an infrastructure asset, an orchard, crops, etc.) and the level of damage (in percentage). 49 This disaster risk management country note for Moldova provides an overview of the way its government currently manages risks created by disasters and climate change. It takes stocks of existing measures and mechanisms used to manager disaster risk management (including emergency response) and lays the foundation for the development of a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy. Because of the growing frequency and severity of disasters, the government has faced the rising costs of responding to disasters as well as the challenges of financing risk reduction efforts, emergency response activities, and recovery and reconstruction costs. Having adequate regulatory frameworks alongside sufficient access to financial instruments and resources to respond to disasters is critical for building the disaster resilience of the country and minimizing the negative impact of disasters and climate change on Moldova’s economic growth and poverty reduction efforts. About GFDRR The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is a global partnership that helps developing countries better understand and reduce their vulnerabilities to natural hazards and adapt to climate change. Working with over 400 local, national, regional, and international partners, GFDRR provides grant financing, technical assistance, training, and knowledge sharing activities to mainstream disaster and climate risk management in policies and strategies. Managed by the World Bank, GFDRR is supported by 33 countries and 11 international organizations.