_/~ :1 Ne, E-54 . ~ ) ~"' "" ' . •• _"_>Jt' 66961 This report is not to be published or quoted as representing the Bank's views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT OILS AND FATS TRENDS, IN WORLD PROPtJCTlON,TRADE~ CONSUMPTION AND PRICES July 8, 1949 Economic Department Prepared by: P. F. Craig-Martin and F. White Agriculture Section . OILS AND FATS TRElTP§ IN l'lOP.LD PRODUOTIQh TRAgl!l, CONS1:JMPTIOn &, PRIOES TABLE OF CCThTT,ENTS Introduction 1 - 2 Summary and Conclusions 3- 7 I. General Developments in Utili:::ation 8 - 10 II. Prewar Trends 11 - 24 A. Production :B~ Exports O. Imports D~ Oonsumption I III. The \V'ar Years 24 - 27 IV. POst"rar Trends and Future Outlook 28 - 51 A. Production ]~ Exports C. Imports D. Consumption v. Prices 51 - 59 OHARTS 1. Oils and Fats - From Production to Oonsumption. 2. Yields of Certain Oils and Fats. 3. Estimated i'iorld Produ.ction and Exports of Oils and Fats. 4. rl.ovements of Prices of Certain Vegetable Oleaginous Pro- ducts in London. 5. Movements of Prices of Linseed and Soyabeana, London. 6. ir.ovements of Prices of Certain Vegetable Oils Intended for Various Uses in the United Kingdom. 7. Movements of Prices of Different :Butter Q.ualities in London. STATISTICAL TABLES OILS AND FATS Page Nos.I 1. Relative shares of \iorld production, by continents, average 1935/39. 11 2. Estimated \'lorld production, by groups, average 1921~/28 and 1 9 3 5 / ' ) 9 . · 11 Exports as percentage of world exports, by principal countries, average 1935/39. 13 4. Exports as percentage of production, by continents, average 1935/39. 14 5. World exports, by groups, average 1924/28 and 1935/39. 14 6. Exports from Dominions and Oolonies, average 1934/38. 15 7. World imports. by principal countries. 1937. 16 8. Vegetable oil trade, by principal importing countries, 1937. 16 9. Imports of oilcake, by principal countries, 1937. 17 lOA - O. Imports of fats and oils,' by groups and principaj.' . countries, average 1924/28 and 1937, 18 - 19 11. Oils and fats used in the manufacture of margarine in certain countries, 1928 and 1936. 23 12.. Proportion of different fats and oils used in the manu- facture of soap, by principal countries, prewar. 24 13£. Estimated world production, by groups, average 1935/39 and 1945. 25 13B. Estimated world e~~~ports, by groups, average 1935/39 ~~~ ~ 14. Continental European consumption, by areas, average 1935/38 and 1945/46. 27 15. Estimated world production, by groups, average 1935/39. 1948., 1950.. 28 16. Zstimated world production, by tYl?es, 1924/28, 1935/39. 1945. 1948, and 1950. 31 17. Estimated world exports. by groups, average 1935/39. 1948, 1950. - 32 STATISTICAL T.AJ3L..'!iJS CONT'D Table Nos. Page l~os. 18. ElItPorts as percentage of production, by contin- ents, average 1935/39 and 1948. 33 19. ' Exports from Dominions ano. Oolonies, average 1934/38 and 1948. 20. Estimated world eX-Forts, by country, average 1935/39 and 1948. 36 21. Estimated world e:x:ports, by types, average 1924/28., average 1935/39, 1945, 1948, ancl 1950.. 37 22. Varieties of vegetable oilbearing Material imported by certain countries, 1938 and 19i.~8~ 40 23. Proportion of imports of vegetable 0:'.19" as o:i.I? to total imports of vegetable oils r I;,) t~) im::::.(·!'ts of vegetable oils in all forms, by pTincJ,p::.l G0U;1tj:ies) 1937 and 1948. 40 24. Estimated capaoi ty of vegetable oil factories a,nO. per- cent of capacity utilized by countries~ 1938 ["nd 1948. 41 25. Imports of vegetable oils, United States, 1938 and 1947/48. 4) 26. Imports of vegetable oilbeal'ing material, JapC1.11t 1938 and 1948. 43 27. World imports, by ~rincipal countries, 1937 and 1948. 44 28. Vegetable oil trade, by principal importing countries, 1937 and 1948. L~4 Imports of oilcake, by principal COIDltries, 1937 and 1948. 45 30. Oils and fats used in the manufacture of margarine and soapt United Kingdom and United States, 1936 and 1946. 45 31. Estimated per capita ,",orlCl. consumption, average 1921i-/28, 1938, 1945, 1948, 1949. 46 32. Estimated per capita,consumption in India/P~{istan, Argentina and Brazil, average 1935/39 a~d 1947/48. 46 33. United States utilization of certain fats and Oils, prewar, 1944, and 1948. 47 34. Consumntion of fats and oils in certain countries, pret'i'ar'- a.~ct 1947/48. 47 35. European balance sheet, by countries, pretvar and 1948, 50 STATISTICAL TABLES CONTID Table Nos~ Linseed oil price movements, United Kingdom and United States, 1932 to 1938. 52 37A - :a, Straits copra, c.i.f. price, London, certain years 1911 to 1929. 53 38. Average c.i.f. prices, London, certain oils, 1920, 1929. 1934. 1937, 1938 • 55 Representative '\V'ho1asa1e prices, United States, principal oils and fats, average 1935/39, 1947, 1948, April 1949. 57 40. Price ratios, current, principal agricuHural com- modities. 59 OILS AND FATS IUTRODUCT ION The purpose of this study is to review for oils and fats in general the trends up to ·the outbreak of World War II, the disruptions of the ~mr and postwar Feriod and ~robable future trends. Owing to limitations of space, the study will be confined to the broad aspects of oils and fats as a whOle and as major groups. Trends for in- dividual oils and fats, which may diverge radically from general trends, will thus not be exhaustively considered. In consequence, great care should be ex- eraised in the use of the conclusions drawn, when considering development po~ sibilities for particular oils or fats in particular countries. The scope of the study bas been limited to vegetable, land animal and marine oils and fats. Thus, mineral oils haVe been eXCluded. Further, l' '21 two broad groups, the vi ta,min oi1s~nd essential oils,'9.1ave been excluded as also have certain of the minor oils and fats of vegetable or animal origin, which do not materially affect conclusions to be dra~m on a world basis. A further limitation is that only visible oilsJVand fats are considered. Even though the scope of this study has been thus limited it remains verY' ",Tide, covering the following commodities;_ (1) Vegetable 011s - (a) Edible: Groundnut, soyabean, cottonseed. sunfloi'Jer, sesame. and olive. (b) Palm : Coconut, palm, palm kernel, and babassu. (c) Industrial: Linseed, castor, rapeseed, olticica, and tung. (2) H§nd An*mal Fats - Butter, lard and tallOW. (J) :Marine 01,ls - i'lhale and fish. JJ e.g. cod liver 011, etc. y e.g. Citronella, lemon,· ~pice. etc. jJ i.e. invisi,ble fats consumed in fluid milk, meat, fish, chocolate, edible nuts etc., are excluded. -2- The statistics used have been obtained from five main sources (a) the International Institute of Agriculture. (b) the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. (c) the United States Departments of agri- culture and Oommerce, (d) Unilever. and (e) national accounts of trade. !t was not possible to obtain all the necessary statistics from a single source and, since the figures quoted by different autho~ities vary considerably owing to the use of different conversion factors and different coverage, some adjustments to ensure reasonable comparability have been made for this study. It is believed that errors of judgment. which may t~ve occurred in the adjustment of such a tremendous volume of figures from which the few quoted were derived. do not affect the analysis made or the conclusions dra'trn. It should be noted that all fiw.es QJ;!.oteC; ~;e in terms of oil eguiv~lents exce~t where otherwise stated. Note: The normal conventional treatment of whale oil statistics is to consider the production of a countr~ls whaling fleet as all exported and all quanties entering a country as imported regard- less of origin. - J- OILS Al'lD FATS TBENDS m WORLD PRODUCTIOn, TRADE, CONSW.PTION AND PRICES t, ' , , SffiiI1JJA.RY AND COlWLUS IONS 1. Only in very few cases are individual oils or fats used exclusively for food or non-food purposes. This interchangeability in use is a comparatively ra- cent development, resulting from intensive effort to achieve suitability for food, particularly margarine manufacture. The degree of snitability of the different olls and fats for direct food consumption or for the,manufacture of margarine. compound lard and similar products has, consequently, become of great importance for their marketability. 2. ~'hile technical progress has increased the competi tion between oils and fats, the use of particular varieties is influenced by other factors. such as: an important national snpply (whale oil), tariff and tax policies (colonial pro- ducts), use of by-products of seeds (oilcake), foreign exchange availability, etc. Thus, the competitive relationships bet'.lleen the different oils and fats a,re ex- tremely difficult to trace and vary from one consuming center to another. 3. Even before the war prioe movements for the same oils and fats on different markets became largely independent of each other, owing to the rise of protectionist policies. Further, in many markets prices were directly controlled by government measures. Price trends for the different oils and fats were broadly similar. However, with rapidly increasing world production, and although demand was strong, oils and fats pric~s before the war were weaker in Umes of depression than other agricultural raw material prices. 4. Since the war, oils and fats prices, owing1Db relatively SlO\,1 recovery in world tra~e in oils and fats, have been strong; in the case of linseed particularly, high prices have limited exports in spite of urgent needs and large supplies. Oils and fats prices have recently fallen sharply with prices for ag~icultural oommodities generally but they are expected to be stabilized at -4- a leYel relatiyely high to other agricultural commodities~ This opinion is held on the grounds that there is a fundamental shortage in supplies which will persist for a number of years. varying between different oils and fats for dif- ferent areas from ) to 20 years. s. The decline in world productIon of fats and oils in the fiYe war years was relatively greater than the expansion which occurred in the ~receding three decades. However t world production has almost recovered to the pre''lar (19)5/39) level (19.8 million metric tons) and is forecast at approximately 20.0 million metric tons by 1950. Current development plans are largely directed towards the production of palm all and groundnuts. Palm oil has by far the highest yield of oil per hectare of any variety and is one of the cheapest oils to produce.' It has the further attracti?n of being suitable for many purposes including the manufacture of margarine, shortening and other edible fats as well as soap. candle making and tinplate. Groundnuts have the highest yield of oil per hectare of the annual oil OrOPS and are particularly suitable for large scale mecl~nical cultivation. Groundnut oil is suitable for,all edible purposes and many industrial and technical uses. In addition, groundnuts provide a valuable by~ produot in the form of oilcake whioh adds to the profitability of their production•. Further, there are va.st areas suitable for the production of both these crops. . 6. World exports have not recovered to anything like the extent of toJ'orld productio~ World exports are now Qnly).59 million metric tons or 60 percent of prewar (5;98 million metric tons) and are forecast for 1950 at 4.29 million metric tons or only 72 percent. 1'1+e slow recovery is mainly attributable to the virtual absence of trade in YlS.nchurian soyabeans and Indian ifoundnuts; the slOW recovery of European butter exports and Palm oil exports from South East Asia; the international agreement 11m! ting whale oil production.; and the foreign ex- change shortages of importing countries in corJunction with exttemely high export prices_ Only experts of palm oils from South East Asia are expected to stage a rapid recovery, while Indian gro'tlndnu ts exports are expected to be permanentl.v reduced to a fraction of the prewar level. Current development schemes are seen in true perspective if 1t is oonsidered that the total finally anticipated exports of groundnuts from both the ];ri tish East and ~1'est African Schemes will amount to only 82 ~ercent of the fall in exports of Indian groundnuts between 1938 and 1948. 7. Eight oountries* take 7S ~ 80 peroent of world imports. The United Kingdom and Germany together in 1937 took 38 percent of world imports and in 1948 the United Kingdom alone took 34 percent. The United States imports, wAich accounted for l7 percent of the world total in 1947, and were mainly vegetable Oils. were about half' the prewar figure in 1948, largely owing to much greater domestic production. A return of United States production to the average of 1937/46 wanld require very considerably increased imports. if conOfLunptlon were to be maintained, and would reduce available import supplies for Europe and Japan. Shortage of foreign exchange. coupled with very high prices, has strictly limited import demand in postwar years so that even in the face of urgent needs world exports of linseed in 1948 were only 35 percent of the prewar level at the same time that linseed was presenting a storage problem in Argentina. As a con- sequence of severely limited imports, changes in Varieties imported and a larger proportion of imports in the form of vegetable oils compared with vegetable 011- bearing materials prewar, European and Japanese oilseed processing plants are now working at between 10 and 50 percent of capacity. 8. World consumpt~on of oils and fats showed an upward trend until the outbreak of World War II, demand in general keeping pace with production. The * United Kingdom, Germany; Francs, Hetherlands, Italy.~ Denmark, i1~ited states and Japan" increase, however, was almost entirely in the use of oils and fats for food. In 1948, world consumption (edible and inedible) was only 8.5 kgs. per head against 9.5 kgs~ in 1938. The outlook for consumption contains certain important and recognizable elements. particularly, increasing trends in populations; increasing trends in consumption in exporting countries: and limitation of European import supplies mitigated by increased colonial exports. If world cons~tion per head is to recover to the prewar level, 'by 1958 ",orld production will have to be increased by 4 million tons, or 20 percent over the average level of 1935/39. This is an enormous increase but would have to be exceeded if consumption in Europe were to recover to the prewar level and the chief vegetable oil exporting countries maintained the increases which have already occurred in their do~eatic consumption.. 9~ Conclusions - (a) Although lITorld production of oils and fats may be expected to increase steadily, the recovery in world exports is likely to take 3 to 5 years more. (b) Expans~on of world exports above the prewar level will consequently take even longer, because the greater production is being domestically consumed. (c) Exports of vegetable oil-bearing materials can be expected to form a decreasing proportion of the total as processing in the producing countries continues to expand. (d) This is liable to affect adversely the otlseed processing industries in importing countries. particularly Europe; with the Colonial Fowers probably least affectedjJ (e) The shortage of import supplies and the lack of foreign exchange have already resulted in a drive by the Colonial Powe~s towards self-sufficiency in oils and fats, through Colonial development schemes. (f) Prospects fo~ increased exports in the shorter term lie mainly in the recovery of whale oil. European butter, ~~nehurlan soyabeans, and South East - 7 - Asia palm O'ils.. (g) Development of additional exports over the longer term appear to rest mainly on :{lew palm oil plantations and'the largescale mechanized production of groundnuts. CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION ORIGIN ~--------------------------~--~---------------+---------------------------+------~ p , MIXED OR AFTER AS IS OR AFTER g MAJOR PROCESSING MINOR PROCESSING I·--------------------------;,------------------~ '" ,.. ~ BUTTER ((rLX~K·:tiLU;·w\::;~:;; ." ~{AND OTHER '.' FATS? :.::.::;.: .. . : ..... ::.:...:. ' o o o c: (J) I"l (J) r l> c G') ::x: 'TI -4 ::0 IT! ;n o IT! 3: -4 f' ." ::0 :!OiREC/ C'OM8'~~{;6M gQ ... .,. ':.:", .:. ,::,', '..... ' ".;.... ', ',' FOR LIGHT AND HEAT ::. -::. :::,:;.:::.:.;:;.;:::: ::~~ :.,.:::;..........::. cr ~(I) '".;., '.';; '" i~~~\:;~~~~:~~~~;;::r~t~~;,1-:-i-------------------I 0» Zz -i 0 o 0" o!:; ~(I) c 3: (J) ." IT! o -i :z IT! o (J) "tl rlT! l>l> r o Z o o ;n z~ c: z -4Z (J) 0 ~ C C (J) . -4 ::tI (J) » c: (J) I"l "".,..--- ..... , / \ /" I l;; Q \ \ ::l r- I \ I r , " ---- .".1/' I'" I 111 I " I ~I d~ I I~ I I'" .... _.J I -8- OILS AND FATS TR:E~IDS IN WORLD PRODUCTION. Tru..DE. COUS1.t·;PTIO!:T AND PRICES I. GENERAL DEVELOPNEl-TTS IN UTILIZATION All the oils and fats covered by this study are utilized either for human food or for technical and :lndustrial purposes, but only in very fe,., cases are the individual oils or fats used exclusively for one purpose; butter and lard are used almost exclue:lvely for food whereas tung and ulticica oils are equally limited to industrial use. This interchangeabilit,r in use between the different oils and fats is a comparatively recent development, resulting from intensive efforts to achieve sn1~ability for food, particularly margarine manufacture. These efforts brought about advances in processing techniques whereby the use of new oils and fats for food. or larger proportions of current varieties, was made possible. Before 11 . World Waf' ! all extracted oils were considered suitable only for tecp.nica1 and indUstrial purposes but by the elimination of free fatty acids and objection- able co10f'S and odors they were made available for food. Similarly, the per- fection of the fat hardening process has made possible the wide use of whale oil and certain vegetable oils for food. In consequence of these developments the d.egree of suitability of the different oils and fats for direct food consumption or for the manufacture of margarine. compound lard and similar products has become of great importance for their marketability, Former table oils, such as oliVe oil. now suffer keen com- petition from extracted oils, such as cottonseed oil. Natuf'ally solid oils. such as coconut and palm Oil, which had replaced land animal fats in the manu- facture of margarine have had to make room for hardened wrale oil and other vegetable oils~ As an indirect result of these developments the use of margar- ine and compound cooking fats has expanded at the expense of butter and lard. , t ; iI e,g" cottonseed, peanut, soyabean, etc •. -9- While technical progress has been made in the use of fats and oils for food eqaal advances have been made in their technical and indUstrial uses. Possibilities for their use in this la~ter field have been widened and substitutability has tllcreased. At the same Ume, owing to increased derr:and f~:r oils and fats fOT food. industry has sough'!; to escape expensive competition wi th the food manufacturers for their supplies.. . In consequence, minel'al oils have tended to supplant' vegetable and animal oils.. . This is partiClilarly notice- able for lubricating oils and candle making. In 1937 Germany perfecteA a system of obtaining synthetic fatty acids from coal for the manufacture of soap. Today, detergents, wholly or partly made from petrole~, are finding a ready market at the expense of sOap. . Thus, while it is obvious that technical progress has increased the competition between the oils and fats~ both as raw materials and as finished products, it has made it increasingly difficult to trace out these competitive re1atlonships~ If these relationships were confined to technical suitability in use they would be complicated enough but a number of other factors r~ve to be considered, of which the following are the more importantt--:- 1. Trade policIes have been one of the major factors affecting the competitive rela.tionships between fats and oils,,: The influence of these policies has been most evident in four directions:- (a) "There an important national supply has been developed there has been a natura.l tendenc.y to use the oil produced, (An example is the United Kingdom whaling industry and the high proportion of whale oil used in the manufacture of British margarine~) Where preferential tariffs have been established as a result of politieal ties. (The utl1bation of COlonial prodUcts, particularly palm oils and groundnuts. by the colonial powers is the primary example.) (c) \ihere tariff and t.ax policies have resulted in a switch from one oil to another. An example is the United states where differential processing taxes imposed lIt 1934 on domestic and foreign Oils reduced considerably the VOlume of coconut oil used in margarine manufacture in favor of cottonBe~d o11~ . Certain oils, babassu - 10 - and palm kernel. previously used in very small quantities, and consequently exempt from the taxes. became much more important. Further, excise taxee in many States of the USA are imposed on margarine containing imported materials. (d) Vihere private capital invested in 011 processing industries "'as interrelated with capital invested in the production of oil bearing materials this influenced the source of oils used o (The primary example is the Lever group.) 2. In ma.ny' cases fats and oils are only \y-products &0 that the utilization of the main product dete~ines the avallapil1 ty of the ly...products. Examples of these are cottonseed Oil, tallOW and lard. 3. The production of many vegetable oils is attended by the production of valuable feeding stuffs~ such as oilcake and meal. The value of these by- products is often such as to determine the choice of oil-bearing material and thus the oil utilized. 4. There is often a connection between the production of one oil or fat and another which in turn may determine the util;zation of finished fats. The Danish situation illustrates this connection. Denmark imports vegetable oil~bearing material; the oil is utilized in the manufacture of margarine and the by-products, oilcake and meal, are used for feeding dairy cattle. Large quantities of butter are. made from the milk obtained form the dairy cattle. The resulting skimmed milk, a by-product of butter manufacture, is used for feeding pigs, from which ap,reciable quantities of lard are obtained. Denmark consumes the margarine domestically an1 exports the butter and lard. 5. Many of the oils and fats enter into. consumption only after. a number of them have been worked up together. Owing to their substitutability, the combinations of oils used is very variable and price influence is strong. The relative cheapness of palm, and whale oil and the marked expansion in their use is the outstanding example. - 11- I I.. PRE1nTAR TRENDS A. Pro due ti on Oils and fats are produced throughout every continent a~d are obtained from fishing in most seas and whaling in the Antarctic Ocean. ~H t1:out the presentation of voluminous statistics it is" imposs~ble to illustrate fully the relative importance of production in all countries. but some idea of the main producing centers can be obt"ained from the follo"ring figures:- Table 1 - Relative Shares of World Production (percent of world totals) Average 1935/32 Land Animal Vegetable and Nerine Total Asia 55 9 35 All Europe (ex. USSR) 8 38 23 USA and Oanada 9 33 18 USSR 8 9 8 Africa 12 1 7 La tin America 7 5 6 Oceania 1 " $ :3 WO:aLD TOTAL 100 100 100 World produotion of oils and fats increased materially between the wars, rising from an average of about 16.8 million metric tons in 1924/28 to around 19~8 million tons in 1935/39. The expansion, however, was ve~~ different as between the various oils and fats, the increases in the major groups being as follows:~ Table 2 .- Estimated World Production .; J~verage Average Percentage 1924/?r8 H.. .• 1935/39 Increase % Vegetable oils 9.5 11.4 t 20 Land animal fats 6.9 7.6 :;. 11 Marine oils , 0.4 0,8I LQ4 *,27 Total oils and fats 16.8 19.8 The increase in ve~etable 011 production was variable also within itself. Edible vegetable oils, which accounted for about 55 percent of the - 12- total at the beginning and at the end of the period, increased by 20 percent. This expansion was mainly due to advances in processing techniques and increas- ing demand for margarine. Palm oils increased by around 40 percent but industrial vegetable oils showed only a slight advance, attributable solely to the minor oils in the category. The introduction of the plantation system in the Far East for the production of palm and palm kernel oil was the means by which the rapid expansion of those oils was obtained. The outstanding increases in the vegetable 011 group were in coconut (460 thousand tons), groundnut (450 thousand tons), palm and palm kernel (245 thousand tons) and cottonseed (215 thousand tons). The trends developed by the tr~ee animal fats were quite independ- ent of each other. The increase in the production of land animal fats was almost entirely due to butter, which showed an advance of 55 percent (1225 thousand tons). The increase in butter produc~ion was brought about by the rapid expansion of dairying allover the world. Lard production increased very slightly but tallow showed a decline of around 28 percent (550 thOUsand tons). The fact that lard production increased only very slightly was due to a decline in United States ~roduction owing to severe droughts in 1934 and 19)6 and the replacement of lard by vegetable oils in United States consumptio~ which more than offset an increase in lard production in Europe. TallOW production was depressed by the increasing supply of whale 011 with which it competed. The increase in ma;oine oils was largely attributable to \"ha1e oil, production of which increased about two and a half t1mes; the advance in fish oils was also considerable, The great increase in whale (lil production "las due to the development ot hydro-genation which made this oil suitable for the manufacture of margarine. Unt~l the mid41e 19)Ot s Norway and the United Kingdom w~re the principal countries operating whaltng fleets.. However. after - 13 - this date Japan and Germany sent out fleets because they were seeking new oil supplies without the expenditure of foreign exchange. A great many countries "Jhare in the exports of oils and fats I' b'llt there is also a large degree of specialization.. The following table indicates the relative importance of the exports of certain oils and fats from the chief exporting areas:- Table 3 - morts as Percentage of World morts Average 1935/12 Vegetahle Oils Butter ViMle 011.~ Edible Palm Industrial Europe 7§:/ 50 si 80~ Africa 30 27 Australia and New Zealand 40 Netherlands East Indies ", 32 I ndia/Pakl stan 2S 1Y 13 Ohina and Man- churia 30 10 United States 1 Philippines 20 Argentina 57 2 Brazil 6 ~ Mainly the Balkan countries, Spain, Portugal, and Greece, l1 Mainly groundnuts. ]I Mainly Denmark and the Netherlands. ~ Production figures. . iJ iVlainly Norway, United Kingdom, and Germany. The largest producers of o~ls and fats do not invariably export the largest proportion of their output.. Tl":.e following table indicates the relative importance of expo;ts in relat1011 to production for the chief producing areas:'- - 14- Table 4 - ~orts as Percentage of Production Average 1915/'39 Vegetable Oils Land Animal & Iviarine Total Africa 75 70 Oceania 50 60 67 Latin America 70 18 56 Asia 40 36 Europe (excl. USSR) 10 10 10 United States and Canada 8 5 5 Although production of oils and fats expanded by some 18 percent in the decade before the war t world exports did not show as marked an advance. Howe~ert exports in 1935/39, on average. accounted for 33 percent of production against 30 percent in 1924/28. The following figures illustrate the trend in 6Xports:- Table S ~World ~ort8 Average Average Percentage 1924/28, ,19'3SL:22 Increase (million metric tons) % I Vegetable oils Land Animal fats Marine oils Total fats & oils The increase of only 420,000 tons in world exports of ~egetable oils. compared with an increase of 1,900,000 tons in production in the same period, reflected the already gro\ilng tendency to increase domestic consumption in the chief producing areas. 'The increase in exports was largely among palm oils. which advanced 29 percent because of the expanding use in margarine and soap. The small increase of 5 percent in exports of et\lble vegetable oils was due to the offsetting of an expansion of 25 percent in groundnut by a reducti.n in trade in the other main oils in that category. Exports of industrial vegeta.ble Oils deolined by 11 percent. mainly o\'ring to a reduction in linseed production. The de~line in world exports of land animal fats and the marked increase in exports of marine oils was largely due to (a) the replacement of .... 15 - tallow by whale 011, and (b) the increased lard production in Europe '\rjhich reduced the demand for imports. Increased production of lard in En.rope not only led to a decline in world trade in lard during the thirties but resu.lted in a shift in importance among sources of supply. The United States lost its dominant position and intra-European trade becam~ relatively as important. Butter exports, alone among the land anil'flal fats, inoreased during the period by 13 percent which, however, \-ras smal~ when measured against the 55 percent increase in world production of butter. Within world exports of oils and fats the importanoe of Dominion and Oolonial supplies increased rapidly, particularly with the expansion of palm o11s and groundnuts. In the years just prior to the outbreak of ",ar exports from these areas aocounted for around 50 percent of )farld exports. The relative size. of the Dominion and OolOnial exports of oils and fats, including whale oil, is shown in the follo,d,ng figures: .... Table 6 • Exuorts ro British Do~1nions 725 13ritish Oolonies & Man- dates 850 Oondominiums --11 Total British 1606 Netherlands East Indies 531 French Oolonies & Man- dates 388 Belgian Oongo 99 Portuguese Colonies 62 Total Other 'i08O GB..tl.ND TOTAL 2686 WORLD :EXPORTS ~ .s~Z ~ Average 1935/39. O. Imports Eight countries (as in Table 7 'below) have accounted for 75 to 80 percent of world imports of oils and fats in all forms. Together, in 1937 •. they took 80 percent of the vegetable Oils (some one-q~rter to one-third 11'1 the form of 011): of the eight countries, two (United Kingdom and Germany) - 16- took 76 percent of the world imports of land animal fats, and the same two countries received .54 percent of the marine oils. The follo,!;/ing table gives particulars for the chief importing countries:~ Tabl;e t- \iorld Im-ports of Oils and Fats thousand metric tons - in terms of oil) 19J1. Vegetable LaBd Animal Marine -- Total Uni ted Kingdom 709 504 197 1410 Germany 672 143 182 997 France 626 10 7 643 Netherlands 317 28 83 428 Italy 234 10 :3 247 Denmark 137 1 40 178 United states 975 3,4 69 10.58 Japan -ill 4 - .J&z. Total 8 Oountries l§.11 214 .581 2128 TOTAL it{ORLD UlPORTS ~ ...§2.Q. ~ 6384, Imports into the United States were mainly in the f9rm of 011. owing to du~y free purchases of cocoutit oil from the Philippines. Imports of oil. as oil, into the United states alone accounted for 54 percent of imports in that form into the eight countries during 1937, so that imports of oil in the form of vegetable oil-bearing materials into the remaining seven countries amounted to 82 percent of their total imports, Imports of vegetable oil~bearing material by these countries were bound up with exports of vegetable oils.. The following figures illustrate the trade of the eight countries in vegetable 01ls:- Table 8 - Vegetable Oil Trade ofChie! Imllorti;y; Countries (thousand metric tons) !mnorts 'Oil, As Oil Equi valen,ta Netherlands 2.50 67 207 Un! ted Kingdom 492 217 104 France 5.50 76 94 Denmark 130 7 66 Germany 571 101 40 Italy 169 65 24 -17 - Table 8 (cont1d.) tmports ,Exports Oil As Oil As Oil EgulV;'lents Japan 12 27 United States ...22i 12 Total 8 Oountries 1110 514 An important consideration influencing imports of oils and fats in the foJ'm of vegetable oil-bearing materials, was the need of importing countries for oi1cakes. These oilcakes, so important to the dairy industry and on which the Danish and Dutch e~ort trade in butter was SO largely based, were obtained to an important extent as a by-product of the seed crushing industries. The following figures of imports illustrate the position!- Table 9 - Inmorts of into the_Cbi~f. b.n..l?$r!J.ng Countries Oi1«?a.k~ (thousand metric tons) . l.m (1) (2) t;) (4) Oilcake Oi1cake in Total Col. (2) .as a as such Imported Seeds Percentage of and Nuts Col .. (3l United Kingdom 647 1153 1800 64 Germany 109 1099 1208 91 France 91 906 997 90 Netherlands 175 486 661 73 Denmark 606 315 921 34 Italy 254 2.54 100 Japan 541 783 1324 59 United states l6l -22i ...J2§. 11 Total 8 Countries 2))0 :;591- 7921 ...n World imports of vegetable oils increased from an average of 3729 thousand metric tons in 1924/28 to 4842 thousand tons in 1937. In the middle twenties, vegetable oil-bearing materials (in terms of oil) accounted for 68 percent of world imports of vegetable oils but for 73 percent of imports into the eight chief importing countries (78 percent, if the United States 1s excluded). ~y 1937. vegetable oil-bearing materials (in terms of 011) accounted for 67 percent of world imports of vegetaQle oils but for 71 - 18- percent of imports into the eight chief importing countries (82 percent, if the United states is excluded).. T'lrIO trend.s are thus disc1osed~ (a) a gro'llling diffusion of imports with the creation of new crushing and refining industries, and. (0) an increasing tendency for the chief importing countries to obtain more of their supplies in the form of Yf'getable oil~):-,earing materials. The following figures illustrate the trends in imports'!)f vegetable 0118;- Ta:ble lOA - lwortsof Vege~ab1e Oils. into the Chief !m:eorting COi.1n~ (thousand'metric tons) Average 1224128 1211 Oil Equiv- Oils Total Oil Equiv- Oils Total alents !llent8 Germany 547 78 62.5 571 101 672 Uni ted Kingdom 426 193 619 492 217 709 France 371 62 433 550 76 626 Netherlands 2.54 104 358 250 67 317 Italy 114 78 192 169 65 234 Denmark 77 19 96 130 7 137 United states 292 274 566 410 565 975 Japan Total 8 Countries 120 2201 .....J. 810 122 JOll J2l s:m -- 12 l.llQ J.Q.1 1§Jl WORLD TOTAL .fill 1212 .:m.2 ~ ili2. ~ Only t\'10 countries, the t'''''':'1ied Kingdom and Germany, accounted betwee~ them for 61 percent of world imports of land animal f~ts in the period 1924/28. The United Kingdom alone took 40 percent of the total. The United Kingdom increased its share. by 1937. to 60 percent as German imports declined under a policy of self-sufficiency. ~he following figures indicate trends in imports of land animal fats;- tons Ave,raf;,e 1224L28 l2!Z. :Butter 234 f.ard ~a.llow :Butter -- Lard Tallow 46 ~~ United Kingdom ~ 120 :;83 Get:many 78 106 70 39 France 21 12 10 Netherlands .... 61 26 Denmark Italy .... 1 J 4 11 - 1 2 "I'" 1 1 8 Uni ted Sta.. tee -3 - ~ 3 - - 11 m Japan 4 Total 8 Countrlee WORLD TOTAL ~ Jg ~ ~ Rt 112 .llL ill .Ell - 19 - Production and trade in marine oils grew rapidly after 10rld War !. The eight majo: importing co~~tries for oils and fats took around 80 percent of the world's whale oil produetion in 1937; the United Kingdom and Germany imported approximately 60 percent. The same eight countries took around 70 percent of world imports of fish oils, which were more diffused than those of ",hale oil. The following figures illustrate the development of importe of marine oils:- Table 100 - Imports of Marine Oilft into the Chief Importing Countries (thousand metric tons) Average l224L28 1m Whale Fish Total ~1hale Fish Total Oil ~ Oil, Oil United Kingdom 55 3 58 174 23 197 Germany 75 75 138 44 182 France 2 10 12 1 6 7 Netherlands 42 1 43 83 83 Denmark 9 3 12 33 7 40 Italy :; :; :; :3 Un! ted sta tee Japan Total 8 OountrieQ lV'ORLD TOTAL 22 -- fJ/ - - 205 223 24 44 -2i 249 228 46 25 lli - .M. ~44 !El gq 2' - - m - 27 664 The eight great importing oountries thus developed their trade in oils and fats on different lines. They fell roughly into the following groups:- (a) l!l.x:porters of Dai;ry Products (Netherlands and Denmark) The countries in this group imported oilseeds for the extraction of oilcake for feeding to cattle. The extraction of oil ,~s. perhaps, seconda~J but brought with it the development of very important margarine indUstries. The development of techniques in the processing of whale oil led to the inoreased use of whale oil for margarine and soap manufacture and increased the exportable surplus of vegetable oils after the needs of the domestic manufacturers were satisfied. Further, with the increased production of margarine, either additional quantities of butter were released for export or surplus margarine became available for export. !y Production, -20 - (b) Colonial aM.. Tariff'. Preference Countl':j.es· (U~. UK and n-anoe) The impol't polioies of the·countl'ies in this group became most mal'ked at. the "beginning of' the thirt1e~. The United States was byf'ar'the most important importer of vegetable oils as such; they accounted in 1937 fol' S8 percent of imports of all vee;etable olls(including those domestically extracted from imported seed), the proportion having been continuously more than half after 1929. The ohief reason for this was the preferential treatment aocorded coconut oil from the Philippines, vlhale oil was not utilized in the United States to anything lU(e the extent common in EUropean countries and its use Was oonsiderably e~ceeded by other marine oils, The small utilization of whale oil was due to the great domestio output of botb vegetable and land animal oils and fats; there were appreciablee~orts of land animal fats, particularly lard. The import and export trade of the United Kingdom was extremely complex and covered almost the entire range of oils and fats. There ViaS also a very import~nt trade in oils in the form of soap, paints, linoleum, biSCUits, confectionery t etc. On the United Kingdoml s return to the Gold Standard in 1925 the export 'business declined and imports increal'3ed; the p0l'31 tion \l1a8 reversed after its abandonment in 1931, Empire preference was established in 1932 and under it impo1;''tis of butter ando.ilseeds t particularly the former, expanded" Imports of lard and margarine from 110n.....Commonweal th countries declined considerably.. With increasing activity by the United Kingdom in whaling, imports of whale oil expanded rapidly enabling ma+garine production to increase to the point where imports of.margarine oeased. France, like the United, Kingdom,. conduoted a very varied trade in oils and fats. In 1933 a number of measures were taken to protect impor~s of oUseeds ~rom the colonies •. by import duties and by preference duties, Particu1arlYl on butter and martne oils.. The.se measures were supplemented by - 21 - an import quota and licencing aystem. Imports of wargarine. butter, lard, and marine oils declined considerably, and France became in 1936 a net expo;rter of margarine, butter, and lard•. Almost all imports of vegetable oils were in the form of oil-bearing material, imports of ",hlch increased appreciabl.V after 1933. In consequence, .the small exports of vegetable oils tended to increase but exports of oilcake declined because of increasing demands by the expand~ng dairy industry_ (c) Others - German trade was contracting under t.he movement toward greater self- sufficiency. However, imports in the thirties still accounted for about half i German supplies. The one exception to the declining trend in imports of fatt;l and oils was in the case of whale 01.1. Italy, although the second largest produger of olive oil in the world, imported olive oil and other vegetable oilse Imports of land animal and marine animal oils wererelat!vely small. Imports of vegetable oils were mainly in the form of seeds. the bulk being for oil for industrial purposes and resulted in an export surplus of oileake. Imports fluctuated considerably and were largely determined by the size of the oliVe rarvest. Japan imported almost all vegetable oils in the form of seed and was developing an export trade in vegetable oi~s. Japan had a rapidly ex- panding whaling industry; exports of whale oil, however, were relatively small when compared with Japanese exports of other marine oils. D. Consunmtion World consumption of 011s and fats showed an upward trend until the outbreak of World War II, demand in general keeping pace with production. The increase, however, was almost entirely in the use of oils and fats for food and the Pfoportion of food fats to total consumption was constantly rising, This was primarily due to the improvement in production methods for - 22 - margarine and compound lard and the consequent expansion in demand for these products. Two factors contributed to make the increase in production of manufact~red fats possible:- (a) Improved oii refining methods (e"g. soyabeans) and the perfecting of the fat hardening process for whale oil and vegetable oils made a larger variety of fats and oils available for food in a form more suitable for general cona\1.mption. (b) Improved techniques also made a higher proportion of oil from oil_ bearing material suitable for food. (At the beginnip~ of the century 35 percent of Italian olive oil production could be used only for industrial pnrposes but now only 5 percent is thus limited in use .. ) Although consumption of fats and oils fo~ food generally was increasing and each variety shared in the increase, consumption of the various oils and fats in different consuming centers showed different trends. ~nis was largely due t~ the fact that improved refi~ing and processing methods made nearly all kinds of oils suitable for food and, consequently, convenience of supply as well as price largely determined the variety used o This is illustrated by the very different proportions of different oils and fats entering into the manufacture of margarine in different co~~tries:- - 23- Table 11 - Fats and Oils ..!leed in the Manufacture of Mar~arine in Certain Oountries (percentages) U.S! U.KS! Germ~ Demnark at lml 1936 1928 1-2.:2§. 1928 ~ ;1.928 ~ I~ Vegetable Oils Ooconut 60 46 21 11 33 25 43 38 Groundnut 2 1 10 11 6 1 Oottonseed SOyabean 10 34 5 1 11 3 .... 7 10 7 7 9 :3 7 7 17 - Others ....l ...§. 11 ~ II .J! 12 11. Sub-Total 73 92 78 43 72 52 82 73 II. Animal Fats and Oils Land 27 8 6 2 11 6 7 5 Marine -- - ....-- l2. .i1 12. ~ 11 22 Sub-Total 27 8 22 57 28 47 18 27 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 §:/ 1946 not available. Source: International InsU tute of Agriculture and Commonvleal tp Economic Committee. The greater part of the consumption of non-food oils and fats is by the soap making industry with considerably smaller amounts by other industries such as paints and varnish. linoleum and oilcloth and steel. Western Europe and North America have been the centers of soap manufacture and with their high levels of industrialization are also the chief consumers of oils and fats for other industrial and technical purposes. World production of soap amounted to around 6 million tons a year prewar and utilized about 3 million tons of oils and fats. The increasing demand for food fats resulted in industry making intensive efforts to become independent of 011s suitable for food. Since the number of no~food oils and their tonnage became progressively less ind11stry Bought to use increasing amounts of the less valuable oils and fats. !ndustr.1 .... 24- also turned from vegetable oils to mineral Qils and synthetic oils (fatty acids from coal); mineral oils supplanted vegetable oils for lubrication and paraffin took the place of stearin f?r candle making. As with food fats, the choice of varieties of the different oils and fats used by industry in different eountries varied considerably. The fo1101'7ing figures illustrate the differences for certain representative countries in raw materials used for soap manufacture:- Table 12 - Prqportion of Different Oils and Fa,s Used in the ~~nufacture of Soap in Certain Countries (percentages) United States United ,Kingdom Ge rmalf:Y; DenmarJs. !2J1 1m. 12:U l2J.i Coconut 14 9 4 13 Palm. 8 ) 25 14 Palm kernel 6 ) 13 25 Soyabean 1 ) 7 45 Cottonseed Other vegetable ~ 10 6 -) 11 1 ..... ~ II Total vegetable 44 59 62 Total Land Animal 39 19 21 28 Total Marine Ar.ima1 II 16 6 Other materials ...Q. -2. II ..2. !!I Includes secondary oils and fa tSe Sourcet International Institute of Agriculture and Commonwealth Economic Committee IIr. THE WAR YEARS Net imports of oils and fats by Europe excluding USSR before the ~ar had been around 3-1/2 million tons or 61 percent of the 1rlorld export supply. When Germany OVer.ran most of Continental Europe it cut off part of the world market which imported annually around 2 million tons of oils and fats. The result of this w~s a temporary abundance to the rest of the 1rlorld, distributio~ being, of course, affected by the difficulty, of obtaining appropriate shipping. This position only lasted until Japan came into the war when exports from many Far Eastern countries were cut off. Japan gained control of about 40 percent of the vegetable oil production of the Far East, the chief producing - 2S- center. These supplies were greatly in exeeSf3 of Japan's a1:1ili ty to utilize and production, particularly of palm oil and soya, fell off. In addition. India and Argentina reduced oilseed acreage in favor of essential food crops. French 'vest Africa virtually ceased exports of ground- nutaand palm oil under the Vichy Regime. The floating factories producing whale oil had either been sunk or turned to other uses. These events transformed completely the si tuation for oils and fats and although demand for imports was greatly reduced supplies were even more drastically curtailed. L1 ttle could be done to improve the situation and even an increase in the United states of about 1 million tons in production of oils and fats over the prewar level did not correct the situation.. The effect was an increase in crushing capacity in the Western Hemisphere VIi th the increased production of,edible oils in the United States and the industrial oils in Latin /l.meriea. In the five years of the war there was an absolutely greater decline in production than the expansion whicb took place in the preceding decade. World trade was even more ser.iously dislocated. '(,hile the fall in production amounted to 4,1 million tons~ the fall in exports was nearly as large amounting to 3.45 million tcns;~ Table l~ ~ Estimates World Production . Average Percenta.ge b2{~ifion metric tons~945. Dec%ine Vegetable oils 11.4 - 19 Land animal fats 7.6 - 17 Marine oils .Jk.§. -J.i Total oils & fats 19.,8 ..:.n - 26- Table 13B - Estimated World Exports ~verage . Percentage 1~02tJ9. ~ Decline (million metric tons) , % Vegetable oils - 6.'5 Land animal fats ~ 1 Marine oils - 82 Total fate & oils -~ ~e decline in production of vegetable oils was mainly attributable to palm oils which we:re reduced by 6.'5 percent; in trade the drop was slightly higher at 68 percent. Production of the other two groups of vegetable oils unden~ent only small declines. Edible vegetable oils fell by 8 percent largely due to a greater reduction of 34 percent in cottonseed; output of groundnut oil was virtually unchanged and production of soya actually increased. Industrial vegetable oil prodUQtion fell by 6 percent almost entirely due to a drop in linseed out~t after 1943 as the acreage was used for increased food productio~ Trade in these two groups, however, showed a very different picture. Industrial vegetable o~l exports fell ~y 65 percent owing to reduced, production, particularly linseed, and shipping difficulties, The edible vegetable Oils fell by 60 percent; the increased production in the United States which'largely counter-balanced losses elsewhere was consun1ed domestically. Thus the fall in tra'='-e in vegetable oils ,,,as larger in absolute magni tude than it was in production.JJ ~he prewar production trends for land animal fats was reversed during the war. Butter and lard declined by 25 percent and 20 percent respectively owing to reduced output in Europe because of the feed shortage. Butter expOrts fell by.'58 percent while there \~s a phenomenal increase in lard exports, particularly from the United States to the United Kingdom, under Lend-Lease. World production of tallow actually increased by 7 percent in order to supplement reduced supplies ~f palm and wr~le oils, against competiticn 'jJ The trade in a fe\\1 minor vegetable oils actua'llY increased: edible, sun- flower and sesame; industrial, ~1ticica; and palm, babassu. .... 27 - of which it had been losing ground before the war; increased domestic use caused exports to fall by 28 percent.. However. as may be saen from Tables l;3Aand 13B, the increased exports of lard almost counter-balanced the declines in other animal fats although production as a whole fell considerably. With extensive ho s til! tie s at sea lIr.&ling virtually ceased d'l:t.'i.ngthe war and was not resumed tmtil 1945/46 when only nine factories vlere in operation against thirty-five prswr; the small trade movements ''lere mainly from stock. Production of fish oils declined by 49 percent and exports reflected the d~ creased yroduction; however, these reductions mask increases in Icelandic production and exports of fish oil by 28 percent and 14 percent, respectively. Normaleonsumptlon patterns were disrupted by the war. World consumption of fats and oils (food and non-food) which in 1938 was around 9.5 kgs. per head had fallen to about 7.5 l~s. in 1945. Continental . Euronean -. consumption fell by about 55 percent to 8.6 kgs. in 1945/46. as shown in the following figures:~ Table.14 ... Per Cal?ita Consumption (kgs.) Average 193~l38 1945/46 Northern and Western Euro~e ~ 15.2 Central Euro~e lJ 6.1 Medl terranean sf 8.2 Danube Basin ~ .2t.Z Total Europe 8.6 §} France. Benelux, Switzerland, Finland and Scandinavian cmmtries. Ji Germany. Austria, Czechoslovakia and Poland. ~ Greece, Italy, Po~tuga1 and Spain. FJ Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria and YugOslavia. Consumption in the United states; however. showed. little cr~nge from an average of 30.0 kgs, for 1935/39 to 28.7 kgs. in 1945/46. - 28- IV. POSTWAR TRENDS A1i'D FUTURE OUTLOOK A. Produotion World production of oils and fats has shown a remarkable recovery since the termina.tion of hostlli ties. The estimated world produotion in 1948 is put at little under the prewar level. Recovery, however, has not been uniform among the different oils and fats. Theover-all figures in fact conceal the slow reoovery of some oils and fat$, because of actual expansion above the prewar level in others. The following figures indicate the recovery in production:- TablelS - Estimated World Production Average 1950 ~935LJ2 1948 (forecast) (million metric ton,s) Vegetable Oils 11.. 4 12.2 12.4 Land animal fa~s 7.6 6.6 7.0 Marine oils ,...Q&. ..Qe..5.. ; 0~,6 Total oils and fats 19 0 8 l2!2 £Q.& Vegetable 011 production is now above the prewar level and continues to increase. It would be considerably above prewar if the output of p~lm oils had shown the same degree of recovery as the other vegetable oils. Produotion of edible and industrial vegete.bl:e oils are now 17 percent and 7 percent above their prewar levels but palm oil"are 18 percent belo\'!. Cotton- seed oil is the onlY,edible vegetable oil at present produced in smaller ~tantity than prewar, while tung and perilla are the onl~ industrial vegetable Oils which have not fully recovered. Among the palm oils on the other hand, only babaseu, a minor oil which was developed during the war, is above prewar. Among the land animal fata, butter and lard are still 21 percent and 17 percent below prewar but tallow, owing to the continued shortage of palm and whale oils. is ;1.0 percent above., . At thov.gh marine oils are recovering ra!)idly, ",hale and fish oils are still 32 percent and 34 percent belOW the average output for 1935/39. - 29- Since the war the International l'waling ,Agreement limits the Antarctic operations to a specific period (December 1.5 to April.l. inclusive) and the number. of baleen whales to 16,000 blue\'lhale units (oil equivalent 280 .... 300 thousand tons). Vnder the Agreement world production is approximately 70 percent of prewar. Estimates for production of oils and fats in 19.50 put the world total at still only very slightly above the prewar level. Edible and industrial vegetable oils are expected to be 14 percent and 4 percent above prewar. with palm oils only slightly belowo Among the edible oils, proililction of soyabeans is expected to ~ecline and a lower olive crop is anticipated as the 1948 output was a record. All palm oils, with the exception of coconut oil are expected to have passed the prewar level. Among the industrial oils, linseed and castor output are expected to decline; linseed production in 1948 appeared adequate for current demand. Recovery in land and marine animal fats will be slow and it is anticipated that production will still be 8 percent and 24 percent under prewar respectively_ It is still too early to be able to make an estimate of the possible increase after 1950 in production which will result f~om current rehabilitation and development plans. However, these plans are very \-lide in scope as the following points illustrate:- (a) Rehabilitation 1.Palm oils: Netherlands East Indies and Malaya. 20Soyabeans: Manch'9-ria• 3. ~le oil: Possible lifting of restrictions. 4. Fish oil : Japan. 5. Animal fats: Europe. - 30- Development l.. Palm oils;.1I Research into methods of cracking babassu kernels (Brazil). Improved methods of oil recovery in Nigeria... Ne1'1 production in Ind.o- China, Bu~ma. North Borneo, and 4fric~. 2. Groundnu t s:Y New production in Africa, Brazil, Burma, Indo-Ohina, Australia, and New Guinea. li Palm oil has the highest yield of oil per hectare of any variety and is one of the cheapest. if not the cheapest oil to produce. It has the further attraction of being suitable for many purposes including the manufacture of margarine, shortening and other edible fats as well as soap, candle making and tinplate. Y Groundnuts have the highest yield of oil per hectare of the annual oil crops ano. are particularly suitable for all edible purposes and many industrial and technical uses. In addition. groundnuts provide a valuable by-product in the form of oilcake which adds to the profi tabili ty of their production. CHART 2 YIELDS OF CERTAIN OILS AND FATS CJ VEGETABLE ~ MARINE ANIMAL m LAND ANIMAL 100% Possible percentage Yield, direct or Indirect, to be obtained from a given acreage under normal conditions. Percentage for palm and palm kernal taken 80 as base: 100 60 40 20 r- --- o et l IL I C...J et Zet 0:: W > I- ::> w ~ 0:: w etz Q.. :J z :I: 0 I- 0:: 0 C (() (() ::::lEW ...J:lt: 0 0 Z ::> !5 «I 0 ~::::IE 0:: ...J (!) ~ 100%~--------------------------------------------~ Average yield of pure fat (expressed as percentage) of principal primary 011 bearing materials. 0 ...J (5 et 0:: w ::::IE ::::IE ...J et et N ...J LLI > :J l- ::> z S LLI 0 0:: et 0 LLI w ~ 0 :s 2 ~ Q.. (() (() w 0 Q.. 0 0 0 Z Z ...J (() Z ...J 0 LLI 0 et (() ::> :J 0 I- :I: 0 ~ 0:: (!) 6 0 SOURCE: U.S. Deptment of Agriculture l.B.R.D. - Economic Dept. No.2e3 - 31 - Table 16 - ESTHl.A.TED :'JORLD PRODUCTION e/ (thousand metric tons) (oil or fat equivalent) 1924/28 1935/39 1945 1948 1950 average avera~e Edible Vegetable Oils - Groundnut 1048 1500 1483 1737 1850 Soyabean 1116 1220 1329 1553 1450 Cottonseed 1298 1515 1007 1403 1500 Sunflower 453 572 722 875 900 Sesame 564 618 532 632 650 Olive ~ -.m. 6296 .....'ZQl 1179 ~ 7200 .5231 .5774 7379 Palm Oils - Coconut 1002 1461 204 1089 13.50 Palm oil 455 617 380 552 625 Palm kernels 265 349 236 327 375 :Babassu 16 27 47 ~ ~ '1738 2454 867 2012 2390 Industrial Oils - Linseed 1170 1052 924 1100 1050 Castor 83 183 179 209 180 Rapeseed 1227 1236 1269 1400 1400 Citicica 9 14 18 18 Tung 55 136 82 120 135 Perilla ---..Jl: --22 ....l!i 9 -2. ~ 2675 2513 2856 2222 Total Vegetable Oils 9508 li425 9154 12247 12382 Animal Fats - :Butter 2225 3450 2572 2700 2850 Lard 2630 2700 2177 2250 2400 TallOW 2000 1450 ~560 1600 17 0.0 6855 7600 6309 6550 6950 Marine Oil a - \Vbale 224 531 40 360 370 Fiah 200 286 145 190 2,50 424 812 185 lli 620 ESTnIATED \'JORLD TOTAL 16787 19842 1.5 648 19347 19952 gJ Vlorld production figures are estimated for Visible fats and oils only. As the data available are very limited, particularly for animal,fats, many figures must be conside~ed rough estimates. Sourcet U.S. Department of ~griculture, OFAR. Vegetable Oils and Oileeeds, CEO, London, 191,~8. Unilever Estimates, January, 1949. ... 32- B. Exports Al though total ",orld production of oils and fats has nO':l recovered virtually to the pre",ar level. ''forld exports have shown nothing like the same strength_ The following figures indicate the extent of recovefY in world exports:.,.. Table 17 - Estimated World Exports Average· . l232L..32. ~ .l2.iQ.(:Forecast ) --~llion metric tons) Vegetable oils 3.22 Land animal fats. 0.65 Marine oils 0.,42 Total oils and fats 4.29 World exports of edible vegetable oils are estimated for 1948 at 57 percent less than the prewar figuret mainly owing to declines in exports of soyabeans and gfoundnuts of 85 percent and 45 percent. This position is remarkable in view of the 17 percent increase over pre"lar in world production of edible vegetaQle oils and corresponding increa~es in the production of soya- beans and groundnuts of 28 percent and 16 percent. This anomalous position reflects the virtual absence of trade in l~nchurian soyabeans and Indian groundnuts and increased utilization of vegetable oils for domestic consumption in o~her producing centers. The recovery in ~rade in palm oils, on the other hand, has nearly kept pace with the recovery in production, wor~d exports in 1948 being 25 percent oelow the prewar level. For industrial vegetable oils world trade in 1948 was about 54 percent below prewar; this was almost entirely due to a decline in linseed exports, as a result of extremely high prices which were about seven times prewar. Remarkably, ",orld trade in land animal fa.~s is much nearer the pr~ war level than either vegetable or marine animal oils in spite of a much slower recovery in world production. This reflects the. desire of European exporters to regain their prewar markets. Trade in lard, which had actually - 33 - increased during the war. has been reduced with declining shipments from the United states and in 1948 had fallen to under the pre~mr level. Exports of tallow have shown a marked recovery and are now at the prewar level because of the increase in United states production an~ the greater availability of whale and palm oils. Trade in butter, however, has not fully recovered oec~'lse of the inevitably slow rehabilitation of the industry in Continental Europe. The proportion of the production which is exported by the chief producing centers has altered considerably since prewar. Latin American, Asia and Europe show the most marked declines as the following figures il~ustrate:- Averags l2'3S/ )2, 1248 Africa 70 6]. Oceania 67 52 Latin America 56 27 Asia 36 17 Europe 21 §:/ 12 gJ United states & Canada 5 8 gJ Including ,,!hale oil productior, figures as export ~<' If whale oil figares a~~ excluded the percentagQ3 are 10 and :3 percent reapecti9'ely. The proportion of Dominion and Colonial supplies in world exports has increased from just under half the total prewar to slightly more than half in 1948. The follo~~ng figures give details~- Tab1~ 19 - ~~ts frnm Do~~uions .~nr:L~01onies (lihousand me",Nic tOil I:) ) !:!.verage Estim?~ijed .±~y}t'2B _--=-1'.:,.:-':±L :Bri ti ah Oommo:r:.,\·leal th 1606 1160 Nether1.ar.ds l'i,:,,-st I"Culies 531 280 F:!."ench G')lonJ::"s & 1,1€u'ldates 388 240 :Belgiali (long::'! 99 13.5 Portugu,f;lse Colonies 62 __Ill T;) hal 2q86: 1.9 00 "'or1d Exports 5987* .1i21 * Average 1935/39. - 34- Estimates for exports of oils and fats in 1950 put the total still 28 percent below the prewar leVel. Edible vegetable oils are expected to be 48 per- cent less than prewar with industrial oils 43 percent less and palm oils 6 per~ cent less, Land animal fats at 22 percent below prewar reflect a further re- covery in trade in butter, which "lill still be 34 percent belo.1/' the 1935/39 average. ~~rine oils~ as a result of no i~crease in whale oil production, are expected to be 37 percent lees than pre1rlar. The main 1n~rease in exports in the ahort term is expected to cor:e from recovery in production to the pre",ar level in those oils and fats \1h10h have not yet reached that point; Manchurian soyabean oil is the only prob8,ble exception as its recovery is ex.pected to be considerably delayed. Further increases as a result of current development plans are expected to be mainly in groundnut and palm oils. For the longer term there are many plans for the increase in export supplies, The various development schemes can be appreCiated in true perspective" h01.>lever. 1.>fhen it is considered that the total finally ar:,tici:pated exports of groundnu-t oil fro1)l both British East and i'lest African schemes only amount to 82 percent ·of the reduction in exports of groundnut oil from Ind.ia. between 1938 and 1948~ no recovery is expected to take place in Indian ex~orts in view of increasing domestic consumption. ]\lrther, it shOUld be emphasized that any really significant increase in exports as a result of new production will not be obtained in a short time and is likely to be extended over a period of 10 to 20 years!, The follo1;.ring are some of the more important possibn1 ties for increasing world exportet- (a) Rehabilitation of land animal fats in Ellrope and easing restrictions on wha.ling. European exports of butter and lard in 1948 1.>1ere only 40 percent and 26.percent of prewar. \Vhaling in 1947/48 was limited to about 70 percent prewar. - 35 ~ (b) Rehabilitation of vegetable and fish oil industries in Asia. Netherlands East Indies exports of palm oil and copra in 1948 were 21 percent and 47 percent of prewar; North China and Manchuria soyabean ;,.,ere 5 percent; and Japanese fish oil exports were less than 1 percent of prewar. (c) New production possibilities for very considerable palm oil supplies exist in Indo-China (6 million acres) and other very large suitable areas are known for Burma. British North Borneo and New Guinea. In addition the further expansion of production in the Netherlands Indies and French and Belgian West Africa is r:anned. Improved methods of oil extraction are contemplated in British West Africa wr.lch could increase export availabilities by more tr~n 50 percent~ If suitable machinery could be devised for the cracking of babassu kernels on a commercial scal~t a considerable increase in oil exports from Brazil would become possible. (d) New production poss~bilities of an appreciable increase in groundnut supplies exist in Brt tiah Frencl;1 and Belgian Africa "There plans for considerable increases are being implemen~ed. A verY,considerable area suitable for gro~nd­ nuts :ex1sts in Brazil, Bu:rma. rndo-China, Northern Australia and l~e1;l Guinea. ]j Table 20 - ESirIH.A.l'F,D IJ O:nLD EXPORTS BY GOlTNTRY (thousand metric tons - oil 01.' fat equivalent) Average 1948 1935/J9 (;Erelimirary) Europe (axel. USSR) 940 421 Asia 2600 1133 China and Manchuria 650 88 India/Pakistan 600 123 Malaya 90 80 Netherlands East Indies 640 282 Philippines 390 442 Japan 95 8 Ceylon 100 90 Others 35 20 Africa 1050 950 British West 404 450 Fr. '\vast & Equatorial 285 200 Belgium Congl"\ 115 135 Others 246 165 Oceania 400 300 United states 138 350 South and Central America 750 350 Argentina 580 190 Brazil 120 120 Others 50 40 Others 209 89 TOTAL 5987 3593 11 Exports of domestic material. The 1948 figures must be considered as preliminary because data for many of the countries are not avail- able. Source: Food and Agriculture Organization. Unilever Reports o U.S. Department of Agriculture. Of~~o CHART 3 ESTIMATED WORLD PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS OF OILS AND FATS (MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS> 20~--------~------------------------------~==~~ WORLD PROD eTION 15 - - - --;1-----1:- - - ...1 - - - - - 1 : . ] - - - - - 1 . __ .-.1--------;. - ... '.1------1 10 .... :-1-----+ AVERAGE AVERAGE 1945 1948 1950 1924-28 1935-39 ( FORECAST) SOU R CE: I. B. R. D., derived from U. S. Dept. of Agriculture and Unilever I. B. R.D. Economic Dept. No. 320 - 37- Table 21 - ESTIMATED lTORLD EXPORTS (thousand metric tons - oil or fat equivalent) Average Average 1924/28 1935/39 1945 1948 1950 jj at Edible Vegetable Oils - Groundnut 615 773 329 426 500 Soyabean 464 399 111 59 64 Cottonseed 172 172 75 68 100 Sunflower 25 29 81 56 109 Sesame 49 59 6 18 27 Olive -186 1511 ~ 1590 ..3.9. 638 ~ 679 1l. 827 Palm Oils - COCOllut 1001 1170 178 870 1089 Palm oil 286 .91 494 205 318 454 Palm kernel 253 318 225 295 318 Babassu --ll -l:§. ...12 --.£Q ...J§. 1553 2000 635 1503 1879 Industrial Oils - Linseed 792 648 198 227 318 Castor 80 92 84 93 91 Ba.peseed 80 40 18 5 14 Oit1c1ca 4 12 9 9 Tung 57 81 gj 2 81 82 Perilla - - 1009, -1§. 901 a J14 a 415 214 a Total Vegetable Oils 4073 4491 1587 2597 3220 Animal Fats ... :Butter 367 480!}j 200 290 318 Lard 413 172 494 158 159 Tallow -I29. 178 122 J.1£ 122 1116 830 821 620 649 Ma:r1ne Oils - Whale 237 530 64 293 308 Fish 100 136 -2i .JU 113 m 666 119 376 421 ESTI¥.lA.TED 1:IORLD TOTAL 5526 5987 2527 3593 4290 --------~~------~------------------------------~--- !I Estimated from International Institute of Agriculture, Rome. £I Estimated from J.C. Faure's report. s! Includes some palm kernel oil. ~ 1933/37 average • .!/ 1934/38 average. Source: u.S. Department of Agriculture, OFAR. Vegetable Oils and Oilseeds, OEC,.London. i948. World Trade in AgriculturalProducts t Rome, 1940. Unilever Estimates, January .. 1949. - 38- c. Iwporta, It became obvious in the final stages of the war against Germany that t with the liberation of Europe, there would be a serious shortage of supplies available for import. It was hoped that the quick termination of the war against Japan would relieve the situation by freeing Far Eastern export mlpplies but damage in that area together with political dissensi?n has delayed their recovery. Further, the war had accelerated the tendency, evident even pre'Vlat:. for producing countries to consume more of the~routput and thus, although production haa recovered rapidly in mal\Y areas, export suppliesremaino depressed.lI Another factor in the situation is the increase in consumption of liquid milk, as a result of greater consciousness regarding nutritional values due to wartime shortages; this has delayed recovery in the trade in butte:r:. Recovery in supplies of whale oil also is retarded because of an International Agreement to restrict a season's catch in order to prevent extermination of the whalee. Apart from these sup~ly factors limiting imports, two other factors have had considerable effect in limiting trad~. On the one hand, Europe, the If During the war fats and oils supplies were allocated by the Fats and Oils Oommittee of the Oombined Food Board. The Committee was formed in July 1942 for the purpose of distributing the available e~ort supplies of fats and oils on anequ1table basis. As butter iS,considered a dairy product, it was dealt \'11 th by the Dairy Products Cammi ttee, ",hlch 'iolaS formed in October 1942 and continued until October 1946. In July 1946 the Combined Food ~oard was absorbed by the International Emergency Food Council and the various committees continued ~o allocate supplies. However, as suppUes aJ?T,leared adequate for ef:t'ective demand speCific commodities within the Committee were de-co~trolled. Under fats and oils oiticica was removed from allocation in Mar~h 1948; castor beans and oil April 1948; and linseed and oil January 1949. All the remaining fats and oils were decontrolled on February 10,1949. Sourc'e, Food and Agriculture Organization. - 39- ch1efimporting region has been short of the necessary foreign exchange. mainly dollars,' Exporters, even of normally non-dollar supplies, have required dollars in order. to obtain exchange for their import requirements~ supplies for which have only been a.vailable from the dollar area, Further. in, the ruling sellers market exporters have been demanding high and rising prices, which importers have found increasing difficulty in meeting, As a natural consequence of these two factors stocks have tended to increase in certain producing countries" e.g"llnseed in Argentina. These developments have ha'd two' very important results over and above the limitationsw~ich they impose on total imports, Firstly,' the European importers have been receiving import'supplies of veg~table oil-bearing ma~erials in varieties considerably different from prewar.' Imports of linseed, particularly, have fallen (as a result of dollar shortage and high price rather than a lack of supplies), Varieties imported into the United Kingdom and France do not show such marked differences from prewar because of the large colonial supplies; imports of gronndnuts into France are reduced because thes~ are now being processed in Africa. Imports into the Netherlands are ~ow predominately. of copra from Indonesia. The ve-,:y small Danish imports are alsO mainly copra,.compared with a large preponderance of soyabeans from Manchuria prewar. Imports into Germany, since the ".rar. have been very small and have consisted mainly o·'! maize germs •. The following figures indicate changes in the varieties of vegetable oil-be~ring materials imported into the main European importing countries:· - 40-; Table 22 - Varieties of Vegeta't'lle Oil-bearing Mater.ial Imported . I by Cel'tain Co'ltntri~s . . .'. (exp+essedEis 'percentage of totals) Linseed Groundhut So:=£beans Copra Palm Kernels Other !.2J§ 1948 l2J§. 1248 ~1948 '1238. ~ 12J§ ~248 12~8 48 J.2 United Kingdom 17. 2 20 6 1 11 8 40 42 10 Germany f!! France 9 ~ 17 36 70 44 .. 7 16 17 12 3 2 6 10 16 10 59 42 1 1 11 19 7 15 13. Netherlands 44 13 23 12 16 8 70 7 3 2 2 Italy 28 16 27 10 8 16 32 21 42 Denmark '4 12 1 52 1 20 63 7 31 5 4 ., Se,condl;y~ a much larger proportion of the imports into European oountries has 'bElen il1 the form of vegetable oil~, reflecting the gro\dng tendenoy to process eeeds and nuts in the exporting oountries. The following figures ill~strate the trend:- Table 2; - Proportios of Im~orts of Vegeta.ble Oils. as Oil, to Total Imports br Vegetable Oils in all Forms l21Z 1948 (peroent) (percent) United Kingdom 15 49 Italy 29 40 Netherlands 21 31 France 12 23 Germany 1, 3J Denmark 5 :30 As a consequence of severely limited total imports, the change in varieti~s of raw materials and the larger proportion of imports in the form of oils, the European oilseed processing industries are now working very considerably belOW capacity as the follewing figures indicate:- f!! Bizone only fo~ 1948. - 41- Table 24 Estimated Capacity Estimated Capacity of Vegetable 011 Utilized Factories 1938 , 1948 1 19 ( thous. metric tons l2J§. (percent) United Kingdom n.a. n.a. ,n.a. 50 Germany 2500 2133 71 3 (1947) France 1600 1600 -80 40 Netherlands 1000 1000 75 20 Denmark 400 400 90 20 :Belgium :M 1000 1000 30 10 Switzerland 62 65 94 90 Norway 120 130 85 40 .~ Sweden 200 200 95 25 (1947) n.r~~) Austria 27 74 87 Rumania 150/200 JJ 150/200 !H. n.a. Hungary 100 150 W95/100 95/100 POland 200 100 95/100 95/100 Czechoslovakia 220 220 95/100 40/50 :M IJ;Ihere are a large number of small mills in :aelgium which only \vork for part of the year; this accounts for the relatively low percentage of capacity utilized. JJ "Kart ell" factories; farmers presses capacity 250 thousand tons in 1938, 150,000 tons in 1948. The industry is technically poor and financially unsound. sJ I1Karte11" faotories; farmers presses capacity 120 thousand tons in 1938t 100 thou~and tons in 1948. a.a. Not available. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture and Fapers of International Association of Seed Crushers Oongress, 1948. -42 - The prospects for the European oil mills are not very good for the next few years, and if. as seems likely. the trend t01tJards increased processing in exporting countries continues the longer term prospects are little better. Prospects for the Oolonial Powers are relatively better in that they stould be able to maintain a high prop?rtion of their imports of vegetable oils in the form ot oil bearing material" receive in general the varieties their industries are equipped to handle and maintain prices \1ithin reasonable limits. The strong position of these countries is evid.ent 'l'lhen consideration is given to the fact that around half of the \oJ'orld. exports. of oils and fa t8 came from Oolonial Empires and British Dominions"prewar. The possibility of increased European imports in the near fnture will rest largely on the magnitude of United states import requirements and available exchange. Whether the United States will be on a net import basis in 1949 and in the following years is extremely difficult to assess. Production of fats and oils in the United States is primarily a by-product industry; lard and butter output are dependent on meat and milk; cottonseed oil on the cotton crop; maize oil on the processing of maize; soyabeans and groundnuts are fed to stock. and, when crushed, the residues are often more valuable than the oils obtained. There has been a run of good crops for several years and such favor- able condi tiona 'lrrill not continue indefinitely nor is it likely that the coming crops will equal last year's which.~ms 23 percent over 1947 and 44 percent over the average for,the prece~ng decade, Any ap~reciable reduction in production is likely. therefore, to make for an increased demand for imports; if consumption is to be maintained at current levels, a decline in domestic production of vegetable ollso! 25 percent (from the 1948 to the ten-year average 1931/46 level) would,possibly increase import demand as muc:p as 80 percent above the 1948 level, or by nearly 437 thousand metric tons. Since Un~ tted States exports of animal fats would probably be reduced at the same time - 43- the effect on the availability of import supplies for other countries, particularly Europe, would be severe. United States imports of vegetable oils in all forms have been as follows:- T~ble 25 - United States Imuorts of Vegetable Oils ( thousand metric tons) l2.3§. 1947/ 48 Ooconut oil (mainly Philippines) 441 351 Olive oil (mainly EUrope) 45 15 Palm oil (mainl;y lleth •.E.lndies) 123 29 Tung oil (Ohina) 49 48 Other vegetable oil (mainly Latin America) 112 Total 776 Japanese fats and oils extraction and refining plants have a current capac! ty of 800 thousand tons, or 100 thousand tons less than pre\'lar r They are at present working at under 10 percent of capacity. Existing plants are equip- ped to handle 288 thousand tons, of soyabeans and 243 thousand tons of other vegetable oil-bearing materials. . Imports of vegetable oil-bearing material compared to prewar have been as fo11o'ils:- Table 26 - Jauan: I arts thousand metric tons Soyabeans Othe;" Total The Japanese Economic Stablilization Board 5-Year Plan envisages imports of fats and oils of 443 thousand tons in 1953, "vi th a production from domestic raw materials of 133 thousand tons. The attainment of this level of imports depends very largely on the availability of Manchurian soya-beans and the easing of demand for copra by other importers. Neither of these events appear likely in gufficient magni~lde under present conditions. -44- Table 2{ - World Imports of Oils and Fats thouaand metric tons - in terms of oil) l2J1. 1948 Vegetable Land Marine Total Vegetable Land r.l'arine Total Animal Animal United Kingdom 109 504 197 1410 860 304 153 1317 Germany gf 672 143 182 997 105 29 34 168 France 626 10 1 643 346 23 1.5 384 Netherlands 311 28 83 428 180 6 31 217 Italy 234 10 3 247 47 20 3 70 Denmark 1 40 178 .52 6.5 Uni ted States Japan 137 975 ..ill 14 4 ..........- 69 - -- 1058 --19Z .53.5 --J2 - 1 - --..... - - 13 .536 -12. Total 8 Oountries 8 714 .581 5128 2164 383 249 2796 TOTAL tVORIJ) IMPORTS 3 33 4842 - 8.50 692 -...- - 6384 2597 - 620 - 376 ......- 3.593 !l Bi-zone only for 1948. Table 28 - Vegetable Oil Trade of Chief Imnorting Countries (thousand metric tons) l2JZ 19~ Imnorts Exnorta Imports F~norts Oil Equivalents As Oil As Oil 011 Equivalents As Oil As Oil Netherlands 250 67 207 124 .56 29 Uni ted Kingdom 492 217 104 437 423 28 Franoe .5.50 76 94 268 78 3 Denmark 130 7 66 36 16 3 Germany !!I .571 101 40 71 34 Italy 169 6.5 24 28 19 17 Japan 1.51 12 27 33 6 .... Un! ted Sta tea Total 8 Countries~ 410 . ...2§S. 1110 12 .574 --- 402 1399 ill 76.5 110 190 !!I Bi-zone only for 1948. -45- Table 22 .... I 01 cake i to the Chief I Countries thousand metric tons 12JZ 1248 (1) (2) i en (4) - (5) (6) (7) (8) Oil cake OUeake ~otal Col. (.2) Oilcake Oileake Total 001.(6) as in as a a~ in as a such Imported Percent- .such Imported Percentage Seeds & age of , Seeds &. ; of 001.(7) Nut, qOl.(J) Huts Un1 ted KIngdom 647 1153 1800 64 S6,S 589 1154 51 Germa~a/ 109 1099 1208 91 8 83 91 92 France 91 906 99'7 90 146 352 498 71 Netherlands 175 486 661 73 197 104 301 34 Denmark 606 315 921 34 290 29 319 9 Italy 254 254 100 ""!' 41 41 100 Japan 541- 783 1324 59 50 69 119 58 United States -12l -22i --'li2 .2i -.Bl. 290 ..TIl ~ Total 8 Oountriea2330 2854 - 5591 7921 71 1297 - \, 1557 55 AI Bi-zone only for 1948. Table JO - Fats and Oils Used in the Manufacture of ~fur~arine & SoaE , (percentages) United Kingdom United States .wi 1246 i93 6 1246 I. Margarine - Coconut 11 20 46 3 Groundnut 3 30 1 3 Oottonseed 34 48 Soyabean 7 34 5 43 Other Vegetable 22 - -.2. ..1- Total Vegetable 43 84 92 99 Total Land Animal 2 1 8 1 Total Marine Animal GBA1'D TOTAL Si 100 15. lQQ -- lOO 1QQ -- .United Kingdom United States mz 1946 ill1 1946 II. SoaR - Coconut 9 - 14 10 ~ Palm 25 28 8 1 Palm Kernel 13 26 6 ~ Soyabean 1 Cottonseed Other Vegetable 11 1 29 10 6 - 21 Total Vegetable 39 84 ~ j2 Total Land Animal 19 12 39 62 Total ¥~rine Animal 16 2 11 2 Other tvla.terials -2. -k -2. J± GRi\.}ID TOTAL 100 100 1QQ 1QQ -46- D. ConsuIlll2tion The recent large increase in the world's population has meant th~t, although world production of oils and fats has shown a remarkaple recovery. supplies available per head remain muc~ less than a decade ago. If per capita consumption today were to equal prewar, world production ",ould have to be 11 percent above the current level (which i$ apnroximately equal to prewar) as the following figures indicatet-· Table 31 ~ Estimated Pel Canita World Consumption (kgs.) . Average 1924/28 9.2 1938 9'!'5 1945 7.5 1948 8.5 1949 8.4 The tendency of exporting countrtes to consume more of their produce is particularly marked in Latin America and India/Pakistan as the following figures indicatel- Table 32 - :matima ted Per Capi ta Consum-et10nas Food Onl.;i . (kgs.) , Average 1935/39 194Z148 India/Pakistan 3.3 (1934/3 8) Argentina 9.8 :Brazil 5.1 These and similar increases have heen reflected in the relatively slow recovery of international trade in oil~ and fats and have ~rolonged the period of shortages for importing countries, particularly Europe. Shortages of certain fats and oils r~ve resulted in abnormal substitution and consequent pressure on supplies of some other oils and fats. 1/ Source: Food and Agriculture Organization. -.. 47 - With the recently improved supply siti,1S.tion consumption has in some cases reverted to the o11s and fats used before the war. The follo\"ling figures give examples for the United states:- of Certain Oils & Fe. t of total Prewar 1244 ,12 48 Soyabean oil 5 12 14 Coconut oil 7 2 6 Tu.ng oil 1 1 Linseed oil 6 7 6 Castor oil 1 2 1 In considering consumption of oils and fats, although this study is confined to visible fats, some mention must be made of con~ption of inVisible fats, This invisible conaumption takes many forms. different in different countries, but is most common in fluid milk consumption at present because of the current low level of total visl,ble and invisible fat consumption in many countries. Thefcllowing figures illustrate the trend which is most clearly eVident for the United States where no' fat shortage exists~- Table 34 - Consumption of Oils and Fats as Food Onlyll (grams per head per day) Prewar* 1947/ 48 Visible Fluid Total Visible Fluid Total Fate Milk Fa"t ,I F Fats i Milk F!9.t (fat (fat content) content) United states 56,0 12.9 126.8 52.6 14.8 134.9 Denmark 72.9 17.8 1.50.8 51.1 18.8 129.6 Uni ted Kingdom 54.3 8.7 122.5 38.9 11.9 97.2 liSetherlands 60.2 11.9 114.7 46.8 13.9 86.4 Thus, the outlook for consumption of oils and fats contains certain recognizable elements of which the following are the most important;,... .4 ;. . i lJ So~rce: Food and Agriculture Organization. * Average of .5 years bet...,een 1934 and 1939. ' -48 .... (a) The inc~easing world population. (b) The increasing oonsumption in exporting countries and the consequ.ent difficulties for Europe in obtaining import supplies. (0) The increasing production in and exports from colonial areas, (d) The increasing consumption of invisible fats ,11 particu.larlyin fluid milk. Avery material increase in world production of oils and. fats over the pl;'ewar level .will be neceuary if the current 10vl level of per oapi ta. consumption is to be :maintained and substantially more if per capita consumption is even to return to ·the prewar level. The following figures illustrate the posit!or;, assuming a ",orld population increase of less than 1 percent per annum; ... World Production (million metric tons) At 1948 rate At pre"lar rate At in:rproyed of COnSUll1ption of consumption diet ratey (8.5 kgs.) (9., kgs.) (11., kgs. Average 1935/39 Estimated 1948 19.) 19.8 ... - Required 1958 21.) 2).8 28.8 Oonsumption in exporting countries may be expected to increase and national plans indicate that this wi11be a matter of policy in an attempt to improve diet~. ~fuen it is considered that per capita conmlIDption (edible and inedible) in India/Pakistan and Ohina prewar was 5.5 kgs •• and .5.0 kgs., res- pectively, compared with between 24 and 30 kgs., in Western Europe and b'!orth America, the possibility of a significant increase can be seen. Oonsumption in Latin America is already increasing but is still a long way from the prewar European and North Amerioan level. ." ' . 11 Fats consumed in fluid milk, meat. fish, chocolate, edible nuts etc. Y Cn:ty.',eqtliva.lent to 38 PEi~el'1'··tf . thar1Jihfat~·a!ld~O l'ei'eett~ of the' Continental European rate. prewar. -49- U' the Far East and Latin America are to raise consumption even to the level of tlle current .,,[orld average of 8.5' kgs ••. the pressure on European supplies will be great •. An increase to this level in India/Pakistan and China alone ",ould mean an. increase of 14.5 percent in 'ltlorld production over prewar t or 2.~ million tons, .and "lould be equivalent to 45 percent of the total volume of world imports prewar, of which Eu.rope took Over 60 percent. I. As. a natural conQequenceof foreseeing the general trends in oils and fat$ all Colon~al Powers are engaged in e~anding production in their overseas territories. An added inducement towards this is the fact that increased consumption in exporting countries brings with it increased pro-:. . cessing and consequently affects supplies of vegetable oil-bearing material availaile to the importing countries. The postwar trend of increased consumption of invisible fats, particularly milk, is e:lt:Pected to continue. Theoretically the heavier consumption of milk is a change in eatingih~lts which should decrease the demand for visiele fats. This, however. is unlikely to be the case in view of the low leve~ of consumption in many areas and the increasing importance ascribed to fats in the diet by nutritionists. - 50 . .;. Production Gross lm- Gross Ex- Net ~ ports porte Trade 19=26/38 194$ 1937 19.48 19;37 1948 1937 1948 19;37 1948 North and Western United Kingdom 160 75 1410 1317 146 35 t1264 t1282 1424 1357 France 355 295 643· 384 111 !?l t .532 t384 887 679 13elg1um/Luxembourg. 95 75 180 193 43 10 f 137 t 183 232 258 Switzerland NetherlandsSJ Denmark 35 135 185 25 53 95 428 217 13.5 178 76 65 2 330 53 229 96 - t 51 f 76 f 98 fr 164 86 233 101 259 104 - 51 - 31 134 Norway 45 42 279 200 222 137 ~ 57 f 63 102 105 Sweden 90 125 115 56 40 11 r. 75 t 45 165 170 Finlalfdi, i.I 55 35 27 24 14 t 13 f 24 68 59 Eire!J !.J 61 43 12 11 21 9 f 11 52 54 Oentra1 and Ea~te£n Germanyi7 918 405 997 168 52 f 945 t 168 1863 573 Austria . . rJ 60 40 55 57 6 t 49 f 57 109 97 Ozechos~ovaki~ 14; 90 141 48 2 t 139 t 48 284 138 Po1ancUU iJ hi 280 125 50 42 13 t 37 f 42 317 167 Southern Italy 450 450 247 70 26 ~8 t 221 t 52 671 502 Spai~ i1il1 480 530 52 9 44 14 t 8- .5 488 525 . Portugall1 b/ 85 95 37 36 6 4 t 31 t 32 116 127 Balkan Oountr.ie~ Rumani;]} fjJ ) 3 21 - 18 ) Yugoslav~,iI· b/ ) 430 370 12 8 t 4 )395 370 Bu1gari~ hI ) 3 13 - 10 ) Ffu.ngar:/!J./ ill ) 6 17 - 11 ) Greece!! hi 125 110 4 15 10 - 11 - 10 114 100 TOTAL 41Bc}l 316r}14932 2973 13B1 388 . 1;3551 t2585 7740 5745 !I Produotion from indigenoua material. y. Excluding stock carry...over.-if anyl! Sf Data not available •. ~ 1936/38 average used for imports of oilaeeds for prewar. !I Specific year not given for prewar exports. Exports since the war have been nil or negligible. . i.I. Prewar imports 1936/38 average. - iI Prewar trade figures cover the whole of Germany; 1948 figures relate to the Bi-zone only. !i 1948 import figures are FJ\.O estimates •. !I Prewar trade 1935/39 average. ' jJ Total~ exclude whale oil production for the following countries:- - .51 - Thousand Metric Tons Prewar 1948 Denmark .5 Netherlands 13 Norway 200 168 United Kingdom 220 110 425 291 ~: import sUr:91u s fr export surplus - Source: Food and Agri~ulture Organization US Department o£ Agriculture, OFAR IBRD material. v. PRICES Prices for oil seeds and nuts generally occupied a position between their derivatives, oil and cake, but in periods of falling prices. seeds and nuts £ell more rapidly. The fact that oil and cake supplies. being fa~tory products, are better regulated than seeds and nuts, which are farm products, accounts for this s1 tuation. Technical progress, increasing the range of oils utilized, prevented any marked competition between the edible fat industry and the soap making indus- try for any particular oil or fat; this was aided by the development of synthetic fatty acids. Although the possibilities for substitution in the use of oils and fats has been noted, drying oils (e.g. linseed, tung, ete.) cannot be replaced by non- drying oils and consequently they are subject to influences of which the other oils only. feel the secondary effects. In 1927, when transport in China t'la,s disrupted, prices of tung oil showed an independent trend. In 1929. when the Argentine harvest was poor, linseed ~rices rose sharply. The position of soya- bean oil. which is a semi-drying oil, is peculiar as it may influence prices of both drying oils and non-dryin~ ails or be influenced by either of these graaps. ... 52 .... Special mention must be made of castor oil for which demand ~ms increasing ver,y rapidly before the war owing to its peculiar qualities for the lubrication of aircraft motors. ~thile prices for nearly all oils declined after the beginning of 1937, castor oil prices were well maintained. In the years between the wars, price movements for the same oils and fats on different markets became 7 up to a point, largely independent of each other Owing to the rise of protectionist policies. Further, in meJ,wmiOtrkets prices became controlled to a marked extent by government measures. The different movements of linseed oil prices on the United Kingdom and United states markets illustrate their independence even though both countries were large consumers of linseed oil:- Table 36 - Linseed Oil Price Movements (1932 :::: 100) United Kingdom United States 1932 100 100 1933 119 144 1934 128 149 1935 146 149 1936 168 155 1937 186 171 1938 155 143 Since the United Kingdom was the main importer of oils and fats, prices in that market probably reflected most important pric~ changes and, consequently. they are normally used to indicate world price trends. Price trends for the different oils and fats on the United Kingdom market were more or less similar. In general, after World War I supplies were scarce and prices were high having climbed by 1920 to over twice the prewar level as illustrated by the follo"ring copra prices:- TableJl!.:..s~raits. Copra e.i.f. London NIarket (per long ton) ~ s d 1911 24 i9 .. 1914 25 .... 1918 45 10 1920 56 8 .... Under these circumstances there developed a great drive towards increased production of all o!ls and fats; increased acreages were sown, the plantation system for palm oil was introduced into Asia and the whale oil industry was developed. As production continued to increase prices bega.n to decline from the high level of 1920 and continued their downward trend until 1934. The decline in prices until 1929 was largely due to this marked increase in supplies and, although not all the oils and fats increased in supply to the same extent. the factor of substitutability helped to depress prices generally. For instance, the relatively low and rapidly falling prices for whale oil. which resulted from the expansion and increase in efficiency among whaling fleets, kept depressing the price of supstitute oils for margarine and soap manufacture, especially coconut and palm oil. The extent of the decline is well illustrated by copra pr1ces as follows:~ Table J.7:a--. Straits Copra c.1.f. London Market (per long ton) !l;. s d 1920 1926 56 28 12 8 - 6 1929 23 1 3 Before this fall in oils and fats prices had worked itself out through an adjustment of supply and demand the onset of the severe depression of the early thirties acceler~ted the do\~ward trend. Among the first prices to falloff were cereals, oilseeds and copra. It was inevit~ble tr~t oilseed - 54 ~ and copra prices should decline in sympathy witlv.. cereals because oilcake. a by-product. of oil extraction. entered into ~irect competition with cereals for stock feed. The fall in prices brought about an even more marked competition between oils and fats, With the slackening of industrial demand, linseed oil prices fell so sharply that this oil was used temporarily in the manufacture of soap where it,competed with whale and coconut oil and helped to depress prices still further. This competition between a drying oil and non-drying oils ~'las extremely abnormal. Another feature of this period was that the decline in purchasing power during the depression brought changes in demand, consumers turning to the cheaper manufactured products. Consequently, there was a still more marked decline in butter prices than in prices of oils, although at first the fall in butter prices ~s cushioned by the eVen s~~rper decline in f~ed prices. In the Uni ted Kingdom, however~ a.s a result of 1alling butter prices~ the consumption of butter increased considerably while that of margarine declined thus restricting still further the demand for oils and fats entering into margarine production~ The middle of 1934 witnessed an up turn in oils and fats prices generally, which was continued until the beginning of 1937. This sharp rise in oils and fa.ts prices occurred nearly two years before recovery in agricultural export prices generally and was largely a reflection of a world fat shortage caused by droughts in 1934 and 1936 in the United States. iihen normal supply conditions were re-established after 1937 fats and oils prices declined sharply so that in the early part of 1939 they were not very much above the 193~'level, The continuous rise in butter prices from 1934 was an anomaly not only if compared to agricultural prices generally but also if com~ed wit~ other animal products and with other oils and fats. The rise to - 55- 1937 in CUtter prices can be explained by the factors which affected the other 011s and fats but after that year the continuation of the rise was opposed to the trend of oil prices and does not reflect world conditions. The following table gives particula~s of changes in oils and fats prices on the United Kingdom market between the wars: ... Table 3~ - Average c, \.f, .Prices - London Harket (per long ton) Groundnu tOil Soyabean Coconut Oil Palm Oil Crude {!mo t ) Oil White l Ce;'llon Sorts t:s s d ~ s d s d t:s s d *' 0 1920 !d 81 3 10 95 2 1 66 15 1929 35 8 9 30 2 1 34 7 6 33 12 6 1934 18 11 8 13 18 1 13 10 0 12 12 6 1937 29 17 4 :!4 8 4 25 8 6 22 2 6 1938 21 15 4 17 9 7 16 ::3 4 14 5 0 Linseed Oil Tallow i'Wha1e Oil ,{~ondonl South American no! 1 ;, s d ~ s d ;r, s d 1920 87 0 lQEl 83 12 11 65 0 0 1929 33 6 8 40 0 0 26 10 0 1934 19 12 6 19 5 0 10 5 0 1937 28 13 6 25 17 1 21 0 0 1938 23 16 8 20 12 1 13 12 6 Y Not available. J2I Spot price. Prices increased steadily during the war. Since the war the short supply position of fats and oils has been more acute and of longer duration than for most other commodities~ The relative position of world export supplies of a number of important agricultural COmmodities shows clearly the slow recovery for oils and fats, as follows:- World E:l£Eort§ 1948 as %of prewar iiheat 169 Sugar 86 Oils and Fats 60 Cotton 86 Rubber(natural) ~ 154 - 56 - In consequence of this slov! recovery. oils and fats prices advanced Tapidly in the postwar period until the turn of 1946/47 when they weakened, moving downward slightly until the end of 1948. A sharp decline has occurred during the first half of 1949 and appears likely to continue. Any valid detailed analysis of the postwar trends in oils and fats prices is at present impossible because of the lack of quotations and the artifioiality of those that are made. The Colonial: Powers all have special price arrangements with their,overseas territories,' which are not generally publicized and \'lhere they are, their s~gnificance :!.s obscured by subsidies and other financial arrangements. Further, Government purchase on bulk and long term contracts and under trade agreements, the terms and conditions of which are not disclosed, also obscure trends. Again barter agreements and special exchange rates dO,nothing to relieve the obscurity. However, certain broad aspects of price movements have become evident. 'rhe prewar s1 tuation . . ,here prices for the same oil' on different markets showed independence of movement has r~turned and has even been aggravated. One large group, the dollar area. has emerged from shortage to possible surplus. Thus although prices appear to have declined generally, prices in the USA have falle~ much more sharply than elsewhere. ~e following indices (1929 =100) for linseed oil and copra illustrate the movements:- Lins!ed 011 Copra UK Market 'US erket UK Market . US Market (Plate) (Domestic) (Straits) (Philippines) 1929 100 100 100 100 1939 83 75 51 !I 43 1947 546 280 n.a. 2)0 1949 (April) 507 235 ,08 198 Another feature of the current price situation is the different levels of prices for differe~t fats and Oils in the same market, The United States markets il+ustr~tes this feature, reflecting international trade controls 1I Not available. ; . ! • I L . t, ' - 57- and restrictions,. exchange dlffieul ties and domestic policy, as follows:- Table 32· - 1.tepr.@sentatlye )/ho1esa1e Prices: Unite!! States . Average. April 122~l22 1942 1248 12!!:2 t. 1l2r lb., t:£ per lbO!, Index** ~ per lb. Index** ¢ per lb. Index** Butter 30",2 71.3 236 75.8 250 ,59,9 198 Lard 10.2 23'l'9 234 21,3 208 12.2 120 Tallow 6~6 19,2 291 16.0 243 .5.2 79 Coconut 011* 7.3 20",7 284 26'l'3 360 17.2 236 Groundnu tOil 8 .. 0 26.3 329 25.8 323 12.2 153 Cottonseed 011 7.6 25.9 341 25.3 333 11.0 145 Soyabean Oil 6.8 23.3 343 22.3 328 10.5 154 Linseed Oil 9.2 32.8 357 27.8 302 27.0 294 It would be foolhardy to attempt to assess the course of oils and fats prices in the ~bsence even of sufficient information regarding the post- war years. However f on the supply side alone shortages in terms of prellrar per capita consumption, particularly in Europe, may be expected to persist for a number of years. Against this the United States, Canada and the Philippines appear to be approaching a period of surplus. Thus. with ~change difficulties effective demand for the worldls exportable supplies may not be up to the prewar level for some time. Thus, while it is undoubtedly dangerous to attempt to forecast oils and fats prices it is reasonably safe to assume that they will continue to fall from present levels. New production of groundnuts is not likely to result in material quantities entering world trade before 5 years or more have passed and new production of palm oil may take 15 to 20 years before it will have really significant effect. Under these circumstances the key to future supplies and prices during the next few years lies mainly in the rate and extent of recovery in Asiatic exports. * From imported Copra. ** Average 1935/;9 ~ 100. · - 58 ~ The effect of the recent fall in pric~a and of any further decline on supply is also extremely difficult to assess. Past experience indicates that there is no certainty regarding the reaction of supply to price and that the effects ofa price fall are different for the different oils and fats. For instance, falling prices resulted in laying up of whaling fleets in 1931; world butter exports tended to increase throughout the depression; world exports of palm 011 and palm kernel oil also tended to increase at that time but coconut oil and linseed o~l trade declined. Taking what is known and hazarding a gues~ regarding the unknown. one might very tentatively suggest that oils and fats prices ove~ the next few years will tend to stabilize appreciably above the prewar level and will be relatively favorable to producers in comparison with most other agricultural I ' . . commodi t1e.s. The current level (prices whiCh have since fallen further) in relation to p:rewar (about 19)5/39) for a number of eOlMlodities is as follows, illustrating the comparative abundance of fats and oils in the United States market:- - 59- Table 40- Prioe Ratios (in terms of currenoy quoted) Commodity ,- Date Represen1at!te Price Percent of Prewar Sisal April" 1949 No.1 (free) 0.i 4 f t Antwerp 573 !l/ "96,per ton Jute April, 1949 First V~rks, c.iof. London 550 ~99.15 per ton Wool {ap- March, 1949 Dominions wool, average clean deliver~d parel cost out of London Sales 64's ~ 101d. lb. 394 ]I 48. 1 s = 3~d. lb, ' 252 Ji Cotton f:l April 1-14,1949 New York spot, middling 315 l5/l6tt 33.7 Q. p~r 19. Coffee May 6, 1949 New York ~pott Brazilian (310) Santos, No.? 28.250. lb. Sugar April, 1949 Raws, f.cob o Cuba 282 $4010 per 100 ~b. Wheat April, 1-14,1949 Chicago May futures 226 $2.17 per bush. (rising) Cocoa May 6, 1949 Accra, c.• i.f. New York (270) 18.750. per lb. (nom~nal) Fats & Oils January, 1949 US Dept. of Labor index 245 !i Tea = (1926 100) 14601' Feb.22/23,1949 Oalcutta auction average, with export rights (l/lot lb.) Rubber April 1-14,1949 London R.SoS. spot ll-1/16~ per Ibo Percent of early 1939. Percent of average 1934/38 for London sales. Average 1936/39. On basis used November 1948 and before. including non-commercial crop. , Source: London and Cambridge Eoonomic Se~ice Bulletin. - .59 - Table 4() - Price Ratios (in terms of currency quoted) Commodity . Date Represen'ati~e Price Percent of Prewar i Sisal April, 1949 No.1 (free) c .. i",f. Ant\ f. London .5.50 ;1;,99.1.5 per ton Wool (ap- March t 1949 Dominions wool, average clean deliver~d . parel cost out of London Sales 64 s ::: lOld. ··lb. 394 'Ji . = ' ~' s 3~d., 1blO 252 J;/ Cotton S!I April. 1-14,1949 New Y0rk S]?ot, middling 31.5 1.5/1611 33.;7 Q. :p~r lll. Coffee IVJay 6, 1949 New York ~pot, Brazilian (310) Santos, No.? 28.2.5c. lb. Sugar April, 1949 Raws, f.o.b. Cuba 282 $4.10 per 100 ~b. Wheat April. 1-14, 1949 Chicago May futures 226 $2.17 per bush. (rising) Cocoa May 6, 19~ Accra, c.i.f. New York (270) 18.7.50. per lb. (nom~nal) Fats & Oils January ,1949 US Dept. of Labor index 245 sJ (1926 ~ 100) 14601 Tea Feb.22/23,1949 Calcutta auction average, with export rights (1/1~ lb.) . (190) Rubber April 1-14,1949 London R.SoS. spot 134 11-1/16a. per lb o ,. !I Percent of earlY 1939. ~ Percent of average 1934/38 for London sales. £/. Average 1936/39. ~ On basis used November 1948 and before, including no~commercial crop. . Source: London and Oambridge Economic Service »~lletln. ( .I MOVEMENTS OF PRICES OF CERTAIN VEGETABLE OLEAGINOUS PRODUCTS IN LONDON (THE PRICES ARE EXPRESSED IN POUNDS STERLING PER LONG TON) CHART 4 I I r -I , "I' I. ~_ ;tV" I ./\ I , \, ...I/.. ··,·\.~.·. ,wo 1m 1111 III! IIG 1121 1127 1121 11121 1110 1831 1132 1133 'I" '13& 11135 1137 SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURE MOVEMENTS OF PRICES OF LINSEED AND SOYA BEANS, LONDON (THE PRICES ARE EXPRESSED IN POUNDS STERLING PER LONG TON) CHART 5 i HillA "I .r HI· 1\ I V /\ ',' \ 1 '1 ~ "1-... (J v IJ '--V'J'--~J SOYA BEANS, MANCHURIAN ·rl-----+----~r-----+_--_; I I9la 1911 l1li3 11125 IB28 1827 l12li - 1131 1112 - 11M .. - SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURE MOVEMENTS OF PRICES OF CERTAIN VEGETABLE OILS INTENDED FOR VARIOUS USES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM (THE PRICES ARE EXPRESSED IN SHILLINGS PER CWT. OR POUNDS STERLING PER LONG TON) CHART 6 f I I I W~I------~------~-------+------+ CAST1R OIL ~, . ! \ I! : \ / \ 401-1- - - - 1 .. V'\ \\-If\r) i " HI 1--41---+-----1-----l----+--~ .. 1111 ., *I - ,. 111 .. IIH It30 I", 102 .. SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURE MOVEMENTS OF PRICES OF DIFFERENT BUTTER QUALITIES IN LONDON (THE PRICES ARE EXPRESSED IN SHILLINGS PER CWT) CHART 7 - .~ 1\ - .- ~ 1/ , . 110 ~ \ \ .. ., .' NEW \ \ \,// ZEALAND \· \ \\ \ \ \ . ~.---- _.-.-. / r""" . -.-- ,~,' ~, ."""" "...... \ , " \~ " \ . _AUSTRALIAN \\ y\ \\ II il \' .' ,.\' ••0 \' \ \\ \ - - ~ !. II \ 140 f\. I '\, '. \' DANI~ \ /' ~ \ • / . \ \ \ \ . ,\ \.., 0/ III ,/ - ....... ... - \' , 120 ~, II \ ....... _- ... ,, , I \\ \ , \' \.' \ , , V , ," ,'"," r:,~;::;" ,"" , ,, , /) \\ \, ~;~ ,\ ,, ,~/ ,;/ 1110 - \. ,, '#~; ,00 " ' .......... '1 / ',i" ./:$~ " '\ \, , \ DUTCH ...... ~~, '/ \' ,\ /, I \, / ~ " I' ,t II " " I,. \\ // 1/ "I 80 f\~..., /i \. , ,t I ' " " ' I! " J . 1810 lOti .. lUIS 1926 _ SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURE