IS ]1d' s pA a'cc BSaLlaLnccl, or f11zt Ni'; io eny, Pht$osphate, and Potash, 1.992/9 §XX9981i99 Per tilizer V\()1llvitlt, (;I (llou 784 '@ gFp' ';V'-' y; s - C)Ni LANll~~~~AN TENR iN T ! ; . - 1 I V i ., I e ;f t tW # EA crtzrc'imt .rtp_ I' I~~~~~~~1 I RECENT WORLD HANK TECHNICAL I'AI'EIRS No. 182 I and Resoiures Unit. ,\sia Technical i)epartment, %iraheti tor I lln et or t)Mu'pvnet ln .4lsa No'. 183 Naijera,I.ILe'e,and I ilmnier, A lilaria: New Pattrns n I. r /'i'etwe Ni). 18S4 rossson .and ,\n.lerstin, Rey.oiiFrce and * (;7t loal I oo Prospe, cllt 4S: Siq'p1l4 1v s an '. le7ma for Cereal to 2iS!]1)}31 No. 185 IFruderiksewn, 1 )'rought I'lninoiyiig and Ialter F riet--itu-uu Irpililicatzrios in lVater Rhesouar-es A Ianage,nertt No. IS} c;ui,sl.iin, 1)wsti:liure of Sztat I.nte(rpri..z A ii ( h' mew ozlf 11w legal lZra,neark No. 187 , I)e Cievndt, Zhlao, and liu, From I arefoo°t I)octlr to Village D)tor ii: Rurtl Ch1ina No!. 1SS Silverman, Ilid,1w Sector I )-centralizat ion: icononic Pohliit nid Sector /i i''tnietm lPro nrmuis No'. I89 Fr:rederick Balancing Wi,ter l)e with 1 l Role of Alanager in a World ofl ncr rasimg Scarcitij No. 19() Mlacklin. Agricultural Extension in Inzdia No. 191 Frederiksen, lVaiter Reson rtes Instiltutions: Some Pritnci pIes and Practices No. 192 NMcMillan. lainter, and Scudder, Settlenmet andl7 lDevelopmtent in the Ri;er Blindtess Control Ztotne No. 193 Braatz, Consmerving BiologEicl Dliersity: A StrateN ytor Protected A1reas in the A. s; - Pacific Reyton No. 194 Saint, Universities in Africa: St rategies for Stablilization andii Recitalization No. 195 Ochs and Bisha-. Drainage Gudiielinis No. 196 Mabogunje, Perspective on Urban Land and LandAdManagement P'olicies in Szll-Saiaranr Africa Nio. 197 Zvmelman, editor, Assessin,g Enginieeri?,g I:ducationl in Sub-SalharanAfrica No. 198 Teerink and Nakashima, WaUt:rAllocation. Rights. and Pricing U Emamples fromn Japan and the Ulnited States No. 199 Hussi, Murphy, Lindberg, and Brenneman, The Developoiment of Cooperatives anid Otlher Rutral Organizations: Thie Role of thze WVorld Bantk No'. 200 McMillan, Nana, and Savadogn, Settlement antd De-velopment itt the River Blindness Control 7one: Case Stitidy Brurkia Faso No. 201 Van TuijI, Improving WVater Use in Agriculture: Experiences in the Middle Last and North Africa No. 202 Vergara, Thte Alaterials Revolution: WVhat Des it Mtean for Developing Asia? No. 203 Cleaver, A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saiwa ra. Africa and a Focs for tihe World Bank No. 204 Barghouti, Cromwell. and Pritchard, editors, Agricultural Technologiesfor Mlarket-Lcd DvC-lopment Opportunities in the 799Us No. 205 Xie, Kiiffner, and Le Moigne, Using WVater Efficiently: Teciwtlogical Options No. 206 The Worid Bank/FAO/UNIDO/Industrv Fertilizer Working Group, tVorld anid Regional Supply andf Demand Balancesfor Nit rogen, Phosphate, and Potash. 1991192-19971S No. 207 Naravan, Participatory Evaluation: Toolsfor Manaaging Clange in Wnater and Sanitation No. 20S Bindlish and Evenson, Evaluation of the Performanice of T&V Extension in Kenya No. 209 Keith, Property Tax: A Practical Manualfor Anglophone Africa No. 210 Bradlev and N1cNamara, editors, Living with Trees: Policies for Forestry Managepment in Zimnbabive No. 211 Wiebers, Integrated Pest Manrgement anzd iJesticide Regulation in Developing Asia No. 212 Frederiksen, Berkoff, and Barber, Water Resources Managepment in Asia. Volume 1: Maitn Report No. 213 Srivastava and Jaffee, Best Practices for Moving Seed Technology: Neu Approaches to Doing Business No. 214 Bonfiglioli, Agro-pastoralisnm in Chad as a Strategyfor Survival: Apn Essay on the Relationship between Anthropology and Statistics No. 215 Umali, Irrigation-Induced Salinity: A Grotin,g Problemfor Development and tihe Environment No. 216 Carr, Improving Cash Crops in Africa: Factors Influencing the Productivity of Cotton, Coffee, and Tea Grown by Smallzolders No. 217 Antholt, GettifigR eadyfor the T-rnty-First Cent-ury: Tedinical Change and Inctitutional Modernization in A,gricultire (List continues on the inside back cover) WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPER NUMBER 252 World and Regional Supply and Demand Balances for Nitrogen, Phosphate, and Potash, 1992/93-1998/99 The World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/Industry Fertilizer Working Group The World Bank Washington, D.C. Copyright @ 1994 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing July 1994 Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank's work to the development community with the least possible delay. The typescript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. Some sources cited in this paper may be informal documrents that are not readily avaiiable. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should nct be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. 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The complete backlist of publications from the World Bank is shown in the annual Index ofPublications, which contains an alphabetical title list (with full ordering information) and indexes of subjects, authors, and countries and regions. The latest edition is available free of charge from the Distribution Unit, Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from Publications, The World Bank, 66, avenue d'Iena, 75116 Paris, France. ISSN: 1014-9848 - iii - CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .....................................................1 Historical Background ...............................................2 Membership of the Fertilizer Working Group ...............................................3 Regional Country Classification ...............................................4 Introduction to the Tables ...............................................6 General Notes on Terminology ...............................................6 Notes on Nitrogen ...............................................7 Notes on Phosphate ...............................................7 Notes on Potash ...............................................8 NITROGEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES .................................................... 11 Country Ammonia Capacity .............................................. 12 Country Ammonia Supply Capability .............................................. 13 Regional Ammonia Capacity .............................................. 18 Regional Ammonia Supply Capability .............................................. 19 Regional Non-Ammonia Nitrogen Supply Capability .............................................. 20 Regional Nitrogen Fertilizer Demand ......................... 21 Regional Industrial and Feed Nitrogen Demand ............................................. 22 World and Regional Nitrogen Supply and Demand Balances ..................................................... 23 PHOSPHATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES ............................................................................ 27 Country Phosphoric Acid Capacity ..............................2.............. ......... 28 Country Phosphoric Acid Supply Capability .............................. 29 Regional Phosphoric Acid Capacity ................................... ................ 32 Regional Phosphoric Acid Supply Capability .............................................. 33 Regional Non-Phosphoric Acid Supply Capability ................................... 34 Regional Phosphate Fertilizer Demand ................................... 35 Regional Non-Fertilizer Phosphoric Acid Demand ......................................... 36 World and Regional Phosphate Supply and Demand Balances .............................................. 37 POTASH SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES ........................................ 41 Country Potash Mine Capacity ............................ 42 Country Potash Mine Supply Capability ....................................................................... 43 Regional Potash Fertilizer Demand ........................................................................................... 44 Regional Technical Grade Potash Production ............................................................................ 45 World and Regional Potash Supply and Demand Balances ........................................... 46 Foreword Since the establishment of the World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/lndustry Fertilizer Working Group in the mid 1970's, the Bank has chaired the Group and maintained its extensive fertilizer database in cooperation with FAO, UNIDO, IFDC and the intemational fertilizer industry. One of the main activities of the Group is the preparation of annual fertilizer nutrient supply demand balances that cover, respectively, the latest two-year historical data and forecasts over the next five-years. The United Nations Food and Agricuttural Organization (FAO) incorporates these forecasts in its annual "Fertilizer Outlook" that contains statistics and comments on world fertilizer production, consumption and trade, export prices and freight rates, and also provides information on raw material supply and demand forecasts. AKthough the "Fertilizer Outlook" has found widespread interest and recognition, many readers have expressed special interest in a prompt and world-wide dissemination of the Group's latest annual fertilizer nutrient supply and demand projections. Therefore, the World Bank agreed in 1991 to publish annually on behalf of the Fertier Working Group the new fertilizer supply demand balances as soon as they become available. This current issue of the "World and Regional Supply and Demand Balances for Nitrogen, Phosphate, and Potash' reflects the conclusions of the 1994 preparatory and annual meetings of the World Bank/FAO/UNIDOAIndustry Fertilizer Working Group. The paper does not provide comments on the tables, such as trend analyses in current and future markets, production and pricing developments, as these are usually covered separately in FAO's "Fertilizer Outlook". Richard Stem Director Industry and Energy Department Finance and Private Sector Development -vii - Abstract Since 1991 the World Bank has been publishing "The World and Regional Supply and Demand Balances for Nitrogen, Phosphate, and Potash' on an annual basis in the form of World Bank Technical Papers. The current publication again provides statistical data in tabular format on the most recent historical fertilizer nutrient supply and demand balances as well as a five-year forecast and is based on the AprilMay 1994 assessments by the World BankIFAO/UNIDO/lndustry Fertilizer Working Group. Global, regional and country-specific data is presented for the three main fertilizer nutrie.-ts, nitrogen, phosphate, and potash. A bref introduction supplies some background on the activities and composition of the Group and explains its methodologies used for the projections. I I - INTRODUCTION The World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/Industry Fertilizer Working Group (the "Group") includes a number of specialists who are experienced in the analysis of trends in the production and consumption of the three main fertilizer nutrients (nitrogen, phosphate and potash) and fertilizer raw materials. Other members of the Group represent major industrial associations of the nitrogen, phosphate, potash and sulfur industries. Technical, production, marketing and agricultural interests are also represented within the Group. Usually, the Group meets twice a year. However, special meetings may be convened, if and when major changes in the intemational fertilizer supply and demand pattern call for an interim update of the most recent forecast balances. The first (i.e. preparatory) meeting is held in early spring following the availability of the official FAO fertilizer production, consumption and trade figures for the previous year. The capacity and supply capability of the main fertilizer raw materials and intermediates are calculated on a country by country basis and take into account the phasing-in of new plants, anticipated plant utilization rates and idle capacity. Because some of these raw materials are also used for purposes other than fertilizers, their industrial consumption is subtracted from the supply capability to arrive at availability for fertilizer use; further, allowances are made for processing and distribution losses. The resultant figure is the potential fertilizer supply capability at the farm level. Demand projections are the consensus of the Group and take into account a variety of methodologies, including trend analyses, market surveys, agricultural programs and, for some large countries, econometric modeling. Other economic factors that are taken into account by the Group include the impact of oil and agricultural prices on fertilizer demand and the possible constraints arising from environmental legislation. Policy issues and agricultural programs in the major fertilizer consuming countries are also taken into consideration. Of particular importance to both fertilizer demand and trade are current political and economic changes that are taking place, especially in Eastem Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU). Before the preparatory meeting, the Group makes contact with fertilizer experts in major fertilizer consuming and producing countries and asks them for their most recent views on the fertilizer situation in their country or region. Their valued comments form an important and integral part of the discussions at the preparatory meeting. The Working Group operates in an informal manner and members are encouraged to discuss available data freely before a consensus is taken. Generally, anyone representing a major fertilizer interest is welcome to join the Working Group, provided he or she is willing and able to make a positive contribution to the work. A wide geographical membership is encouraged. Representatives from the People's Republic of China, the former Soviet Union (FSU) and Eastem European countries have attended the meeting from time to time and arrangements are underway to secure representation from these areas on a regular and permanent basis. It is understood that the forecasts of the Working Group do not necessarily reflect the detailed views of all members of the Group or their associations. A particular strength of the Working Group is that it is prepared to take all views into account, but has no obligations other than that an objective consensus be reached after all relevant issues have been discussed. Further, it should be noted that the projected supply capabilities for nitrogen, phosphate and potash will not necessarily correlate with actual industry outputs, as production will in most instances follow relevant market trends, whereas the listed supply capabilities reflect the potential output based on the current knowledge of the industry and in the absence of external constraints. The demand projections include historical trend analyses and economic considerations, but do not indicate agronomically optimized scenarios based on maximum sustainable agricultural production including best cropping pattems and technologies. The World Bank acts as the custodian of the fertilizer data base that has been developed and maintained by the Group. WUith the help of other members of the Group, the Bank regularly prepares the updated regional and global supply/demand balances, typicaliv for 5-year periods. The second (i.e. main) meeting of the Working Group takes place about 1-2 months after the preparatory meeting and comprises a much larger gathering. The meeting is hosted and chaired in tum by the World Bank, FAO and UNIDO. The fertilizer supply and demand balances are discussed and updated if required in the light of further information then available before publication. The World Bank has undertaken to publish, on behalf ef the Fertilizer Working Group, the annual fertilizer supply and demand balances as soon as they have been finalized after the relevant main annual meetings. Subsequently, an analysis of the conclusiorns of the Group is usually published by FAO as part of its annual "Fertilizer Review and Outlook" that is available in several languages and receives world-wide circulation. Historical Background In 1974, the world experienced its worst fertilizer crisis ever with prices rising several-fold to unprecedented levels. Many farmers in developing countries could no longer afford to buy or justify the use of fertilizers. Undoubtedly, one of the factors aggravating the problem was the lack of reliable information on supply and demand forecasts for fertilizer materials. Projections from the intemational agencies and fertilizer industry associations varied widely and a common view was that the world was heading for a catastrophic shortage of ferilizers. At the World Food Conference held in Rome in November 1974 to discuss the food and fertirizer crisis, it was recognized that there was an urgent need for authoritative and reliable information on the supply and demand of fertilizers which could be disseminated widely throughout the world. Such data provide a valuable input for planning and decision making, assist developing countries in assessing the true state of the market and help planners of new capacity to make better decisions so as to minimize surges in supply and demand. One of the recommendations of the World Food Conference was that the international agencies concerned, as a matter of urgency, should establish and maintain an authoritative aralysis of the medium and long term fertilizer supply and demand situation and provide information that would assist in avoiding major imbalances between supply and demand. Since the beginning of 1975, the World Bank, FAO and UNIDO, in association with other intemational fertilizer agencies and representatives from the intemational fertilizer indusby, have been responsible for maintaining a fertilizer data base and providing five year forecasts of world and regional supply and demand balances through the World BanklFAO/UNIDO/lndustry Fertilizer Working Group. -3 - Membership of the Fertilizer Working Group Preparatorv Meetinq Representation at the preparatory meeting is relatively small and currently comprises feriizer experts from the following organizations: - Intemational Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) - Intemational Feftilizer Development Center (IFDC) - National Fertilizer & Environmental Research Center (TVA) - European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association (EFMA) (represented by NITREX) - United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) - Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) - The World Bank (IBRD) - Canpotex Limied - Kali urd Salz AG All of these organizations maintain their own comprehensive data bases on fertlizers from which information is available to the Group. Main Meeting Many fertilizer organizations attend the main meetings regularly or on an occasional basis. either to participate in the discussions or to present papers of topical interest to the Group. These organizations include the following: Internaional Organizations: - Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN (FAO) - United Nations Industrial Development Organization (JNIDO) - The World Bank (IBRD) - ESCAP/FAO/UNIDO Fertirizer Advisory, Development and Infotrnation Network for Asia and the Pacific (FADI NAP) - Intemational Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) - Intemationai Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) - Fertilizer Industry Advisory Committee (FIAC) - Intemational Potash Institute (IPI) - The Sulphur Institute (TSI) - The World Phosphate Institute (IMPHOS) - Potash and Phosphate Institute (PPI) -4 - Regional and National Organizations - Fertilizer Advisory, Development and Information Network for Asia and the Pacific (FADINAP) - Arab Federation of Chemical Fertilizer Producers (AFCFP) - Association for the Use of Fertilizers, Brazil (ANDA) - European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association (EFMA) - Fertilizer Association of India (FAI) - Japan Urea & Ammonium Sulphate Industry Association (JUASIA) - The Fert-,ier Institute of the USA (TFI) - The American Phosphate Foundation (APF) Trade Associations - Canpotex Limited - European Fertilker Exporters (NITREX) - Prism Sulphur Corporation (as successor of Canada Sulphur Exporters, CANSULEX) Government Agencies - US Bureau of Mines (USBM) - US Department of Agriculture (USDA) - National Fertilizer & Environmental Research Center, USA - State Institute of Nitrogen Industry, FSU (GIAP) - Ministry of Chemical Industry, China Regional Country Classification Until 1991, the Fertilizer Working Group followed the FAO economic classification. In 1991, following political and economic changes in many centrally planned economies, FAO revised its fertilizer country classification. Consequently, the Fertilizer Working Group also decided to revise its classification and move to a geographical classification. This new classification is compatible with the FAO geographic classification and with geographic classifications maintained by other fertilizer agencies. -5 - Regional Country ClassifIcatIon1 AFRICA AMERICA ASIA EUROPE FSU OCEANIA (Fannr Soviet Union) Algeria North America West Asb East Europe ArmenIb Ausrali Angola Canada Bahrain Albanla Azerbaijan FIJI Benin Unted States Cyprus Bulgaria Betarus French Polyneia Botswana Iran Czech Republic Estonia Caledonlm Burkina Faso Central Anerica Iraq Hungary Georgia New Zealand Burundi Bahamas Israel Poland Kazakhsbtn Papua New Guln Cameroon B3arbados Jordan Romania Kyrgyztan Central African. Rep. Belize Kuwat Slovak RepubUc Latvbia Chad Bermuda Lebanon Former Yugoslavia2 Lithuania Congo Costa Rica Oman Moldovia Cote dIvoire Cuba Qatar West Europe Russia Egypt Dominlca Saudi Arabia Austrla Talikistan Ethiopia Dominican Rep. Syria Belgium - Luxburg Turkmendstan Gabon El Salvador Turkey Denmark Ukraine Gambia Guadeloupe United Arab Emir. Finland Uzbeklstn Ghana Guatemala Yemen France Guinea Haiti Germany Guinea Bissau Honduras South Asia Greece Kenya Jamaica Afghanistan Iceland Lesotho Martinique Bangladesh Ireland Uberia Mexico Bhuban Italy Ubya Nicaragua India Malta Madagascar Panama Nepal Netherlands Malawi St.Kitts & Nevis Pakistan Norway Mali Saint Lucia Sri Lanka Portugal Mauriania Saint Vincent Spain Mauritius Trinidad & Tobago East Asia Sweden Morocco Virgin Islands Cambodia SwRzerland Mozambique China United Kingdom Niger South America Indonesia Nigeria Argentina Japan Reunion Bolivia Laos Rwanda Brazil Malaysia Senegal Chile Mongola Sierra Leone Colombia Myanmar Somalia Ecuador Korea DPR. South Africa French Guyana Korea Rep. Sudan Guyana Philippines Swaziland Paraguay Singapore Tanzania Peru Taiwan Togo Suriram Thailand Tunisia Uruguay Vietnam Uganda Venezuela Zaire Zambia Zhbabwe 1 The classficaton attempts a purely geographical approach to faciltat easir comparison of histrical data. 2 Bosniazeewina, Croatia, Macedoria, Sbonia, Yugoslavia (Serbia & Montenegro) INTRODUCTION TO THE TABLES The World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/lndustry Fertilizer Working Group has updated its forecasts of world and regional fertilizer nutrient supply and demand balances. The supply potential calculated in the tables is the supply that would be available from existing capacities without any mar*et constraints. Recent developments in Eastem Europe and the former Soviet Union have been taken into account and due consideration was also given to current and anticipated constraints in fertilizer related sectors, such as agriculture, energy and infrastructure. Fertilizer dersiand Is the projected effective market requirement and Is not necessarly identical with projected agronomic ferfflizer needs. General Notes on Terminology Capacity: Refers to nominal or name-plate capacity of ammonia plants, phosphoric plants or potash mines. Effective capacity is nominal capacity less an allowance for capacity that has not been fully realized during the phasing-in of new plants. Idle plants that have the potential for resuming operation are included in nominal capacity. Effective capacity and supply capability does not include idle capacity. Shorter periods of non-operation are accounted for in the utlization rates. Supply Capability: Is the total production supply capability for either ammonia, phosphoric acid or potash. It is estimated by applying forecasts of specific country operating rates to effective capacity. Projected operating rates reflect past performance and take into account anticipated future technical improvements or otherwise. No market constraints to production are assumed in projecting operating rates. Fertilizer Supply Potential: Is derived from supply capability. First, non-fertilizer use is subtracted, followed by processing losses, where appropriate. Fertilizers available from other sources are added to yield fertilizer supply potential. Allowance is made for distribution losses and stock changes. Balances (-Deficits): A nutrient balance or deficit is obtained by subtracting fertilizer consumption from fertilizer supply potential. It shows the difference between fertilizer supply potential and demand, assuming no market constraints to production. Care is needed in comparing balances from different sources in absolute termns as they may vary significantly depending on assumptions made for capacities, utilization rates, losses etc. Also, projected balances may often not be realized in practice, particularly in those cases where a negative balance is indicated and demand has to adjust to meet available supply. In a surplus situation, supply will be adjusted downwards by operating at rates below the supply potential. The main function of the balances is to help estimating future trends in the supply and demand relationship based on a consistent set of assumptions compared with existing and past situations. These trends provide useful information on the market place and the need for new production capacity. Tine Reference: Data refer to the fertilizer year July 1 - June 30. For countries that report their fertilizer statistics on a calendar year basis, data are shown under the fertilizer year, the first part of which corresponds to the calendar year, i.e. 1988 calendar year data are shown under ferlizer year 1988189. -7- Units: All figures are given in metric tons of plant nutrients: N, P.05 and K20. The terms 'P205" and 'K20' are conventionally used to express the fertilizer nutrients 'phosphate' and 'potash'. They represent the oxides of the elements P and K. To convert oxides to elements: multiply P205 value by 0.4364; multiply K20 value by 0.8302. To convert elements to oxides: multiply P value by 2.2914; multiply K value by 1.2046. Owing to rounding, individual figures may not add up to the totals. Notes on Nitrogen New ammonia capacities are phased-in as 80%-90%-1 00% of nominal capacity for the first three full years o0 operation. Expansions are phased-in over a two year period. Non-fertilizer use of ammonia includes industrial uses and ammonia for production of animal feed. As nitrogen recovered as ammonium sulfate has already been included in the fertilizer consumption forecast, it is not listed under non-fertilizer ammonia. The processing loss of ammonia in the production of nitrogenous fertilizers is assumed to be 3.5% on average. Sources for non-ammonia nitrogen are coke oven gases, cyanamid and mineral nitrates. The nitrogen fertilizer supply potential is assumed to be 95.5% of the total fertilizer nitrogen supply capability. This percentage is based on the average historical difference between total nitrogen fertilizer consumption and production for the last five years as recorded in the respective FAO Fertilizer Yearbooks and takes account of transport and distribution losses and stock changes. It also accounts for the fact that in some cases (for example China) consumption is recorded as apparent consumption (i.e. net imports plus production) rather than actual. Notes on Phosphate New phosphoric acid capacities are phased-in as 80%-90%-100% of nominal capacity for the first three full years of operation. Expansions are phased-in over a two year period. Non-fertilizer phosphoric acid consumption includes wet process phosphoric acid for industrial use in detergents, phosphate chemicals etc. and for animal feedstuff. The processing and conversion loss of phosphoric acid in the manufacture of phosphate fertilizers is assumed to be 4.0% on average. Other P205 production includes all other phosphates not derved directly from phosphoric acid such as single superphosphate, basic slag, thermnal phosphates, nitrophosphates, ground phosphate rock -8- used for direct application as fertilizer, but excludes phosphoric acid feed and the secondary rock in triple superphosphates. Production is based on existing capacity and projected changes in capacity. Phosphate fertilizer supply potential is assumed to be 97.0% of total fertilizer phosphate supply capability. It is based on the average historical difference between total phosphate fertilizer consumption and production for the last five years as recorded in the respective FAO Fertilizer Yearbooks. This statistical adjustment accounts for transport and distribution losses, and stock changes. It also accounts for the fact that in some cases (for example China) consumption is recorded as apparent consumption (i.e. net imports plus production) rather than actual. Notes on Potash New potash mine nominal capacities are phased-in as follows: Fertilizer Year New Mines New Mines Known Ore Body Unknown Ore Body 1 (6 months)a 30.0% 20-0% 2 67.5% 50.0% 3 82.5% 67.5% 4 95.0% 82.5% 5 100.0% 100.0% a Assuming project completion in mid-year. Expansions are phased-in over a two-year period. Potash Fertilizer supply potential is derived from potash supply capability after deducting industrial uses and distribution losses. The specific regional distribution losses are: Re ion Distrbutibon Loss North America 2.0% Westem Europe 2.0% FSU 8.0% Other regions 5.0% - 9 - This Technical Paper reflects the most recent fertilizer supply and demand projections prepared by the World Bank/FAO/UNIDOllndustry Fertilizer Working Group in AprilMay 1994. The Group welcomes suggestions and comments on the improvement of its fertilizer supply and demand balances. Any communication relating to the Group's activities and its supply and demand forecasts should be addressed to The World Bank, Industry and Energy Department, Industry and Mining Division, for the attention of Mr. Kurt M. Constant, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, USA, telephone (202) 458-2708, telefax (202) 477-6619. The contents of this paper should, however, not be attributed to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to any individual acting on their behalf. NITROGEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES 1 992/93 - 1998/99 The Fertilizer Working Group -12- June 1994 COUNTRY AMMONIA CAPACITY (000 TONS N) 1992193 1993194 199419C 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998199 WORLD 112,519 112,185 113,187 113,4 113,775 11440 114,398 AFRICA 3,669 3,778 3,778 3,778 3,778 3.778 3.778 Algeria 816 816 816 816 816 816 816 Egypt 1,115 1,224 1,224 1,224 1,224 1,224 1.224 Libyan Arab Rep. 598 598 598 598 598 598 598 Malagasy Republic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mocambique 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nigeria 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 Somalia 0 0 0 0 ° a o South Africa 723 723 723 723 723 723 723 Tanzania 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Zambia 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 Zimbabwe 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 AMERICA 27,438 22,531 Z?,qg 22,119 22,156 22,156 22,156 North America 16,499 16,486 16,617 16,568 16,605 16,605 16,605 Canada 3,320 3,320 3,320 3,320 3,320 3,320 3,320 USA 13,179 13,166 13,197 13,248 13,285 13,285 13,285 Central America 3,813 3,919 3,425 3,425 3,425 3,425 3,425 Cuba 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mexico 2,419 2,419 1,925 1,925 1,925 1.925 1,925 Trinidad 1,394 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1.500 1,500 South America 2,126 2,126 2,126 2,126 2,126 2,126 2,126 Argentina 80 80 60 80 80 80 80 Brazil 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,114 Colombia 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 Peru 116 116 116 116 116 116 116 Venezuela 651 651 651 651 651 651 651 The Fertilizer WMrking Group - 13 - June 1994 COUNTRY AMMONIA CAPACITY (000 TONS N) 1992193 1993194 1994196 1996/96 1996197 1997198 1998/99 ASIA 42,41C 43A458 47 4.363 47,046 48,26 48,262 West Asia 6,182 6.467 6,739 6,739 5.739 6,146 6,146 Bahraln 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 Iran 908 908 1.180 1,180 1.180 1,180 1.180 Iraq 816 816 816 B16 816 816 816 Israel 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 Kuwait 489 489 489 489 489 489 489 Qalar 488 488 488 488 488 895 895 Saudi Arabia 846 1.256 1.256 1.256 1.256 1,256 1.256 Syria Arab Rep. 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 Turkey 697 572 572 572 572 572 572 United Arab Emirates 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 South Asia 11,460 11,631 12,365 13.352 13,494 13.494 13.45 ' Afghanistan 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 Bangladesh 1.144 1,144 1,144 1,412 1,412 1,412 1,412 India 8,658 8.658 9,392 9,839 9.839 9,839 9.839 Myanmar 213 213 213 213 213 213 213 Pakistan 1,387 1,558 1.558 1.830 1.972 1,972 1.972 East Asia 25,773 26,360 27,272 27,272 27,812 28,622 28,622 China 19,324 19,864 20,044 20,044 20.584 21.394 21,394 Indonesia 2,777 2,824 3.556 3.556 3.556 3.556 3.556 Japan 1,636 1,636 1.636 1.636 1,636 1.636 1.636 Korea, DPR 879 879 879 879 879 879 879 Korea Rep. of 492 492 492 492 492 492 492 Malaysia 322 322 322 322 322 322 322 Taiwan 289 289 289 289 289 289 289 Vietnam. Dem. Rep. 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 The Fertilizer Working Group - 14 - June 1994 COUNTRY AMMONIA CAPACITY 1000 TONS N) 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997/98 1998199 EUROPE 21t41 20,068 20.068 20068 20.068 20,069 20.068 Eastem Europe 9,170 8.944 8,944 9.944 9.944 8.944 9.944 Albania 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 Bulgaria 1.161 1.161 1,161 1.161 1.161 1.161 1.161 Czech Republic 359 330 330 330 330 330 330 Hungary 523 326 326 326 326 326 326 Poland 2.293 2.293 2,293 2.293 2.293 2.293 2.293 Romania 3.406 3.406 3,406 3.406 3,406 3,406 3.406 Slovak Republic 542 542 542 542 542 542 542 Former Yugoslavia 804 804 804 804 804 804 804 Westem Europe 12,244 11.124 11.124 11.124 11.124 11.124 11.124 Austria 410 370 370 370 370 370 370 Belgiun-Lux. 803 803 803 803 803 803 803 Finland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 France 1.526 1.526 1.526 1t526 1.526 1,526 1.526 Germany 2.855 2.485 2.485 2.485 2.485 2.485 2.485 Greece 110 0 0 0 0 0 0 Iceland 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Ireland 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 Italy 959 959 959 959 959 959 959 Netherlands 2.721 2.441 2,441 2.441 2.441 2.441 2.441 Norway 440 345 345 345 345 345 345 Portugal 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 Spain 696 471 471 471 471 471 471 Switzerland 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 United Kingdom 1.066 1.066 1.066 1.066 1.066 1,066 1.066 FSU 21.973 21.740 21.287 20.716 20.118 19.586 19.S24 Armenia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Belarus 1.001 1.001 919 740 740 740 740 Estonia 273 164 164 164 164 164 164 Georgia 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 Kazakhstan 357 357 357 357 357 357 357 Lithuania 529 529 529 529 529 529 529 Russ. Federabon 12.319 12,195 11,990 11.994 11.561 11.343 11.733 Tajikistan 102 102 102 0 0 0 0 Turkmenistan 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 Ukraine 5.105 5.105 5,021 4.727 4.562 4,562 4.562 Uzbekistan 1,631 1.631 1,549 1.549 1,549 1,235 783 OCEANIA 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 Australia 534 534 534 534 534 534 534 NewZealand 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 The Fertilizer Working Group - 15- June 1994 COUNTRY AMMONIA SUPPLY CAPABILITY (000 TONS N) 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997198 1999/99 WORLD 90,747 90452 91.055 92.309 93.821 95,145 96,093 AFRICA 2,527 2.801 2.851 2.882 2.887 2.887 2,887 Algeria 286 286 286 286 286 286 286 Egypt 879 1,029 1.097 1.119 1,124 1.124 1,124 Libyan Arab Rep. 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 Malagasy Republic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nigeria 245 245 245 245 245 245 245 Somalia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 South Africa 668 792 774 782 782 782 782 Zambia 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 Zimbabwe 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 AMERICA 21,205 21.062 20.963 21.029 21, 21.092 21.092 North America 16,047 16.087 16,147 16,213 16,257 16,276 16,276 Canada 2.649 2.847 2.898 2,924 2,924 2,924 2,924 USA 13.398 13,240 13.249 13.290 13.334 13,352 13.352 Central America 3,420 3,221 3.061 3,061 3,061 3,061 3,061 Cuba 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mexico 2,056 1,846 1.636 1.636 1,636 1,636 1,636 Trinidad 1.324 1,375 1,425 1,425 1.425 1,425 1.425 South America 1,738 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 1.755 Argentina 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 Brazil 930 947 947 947 947 947 947 Colombia 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 Peru 116 116 116 116 116 116 116 Venezuela 521 521 521 521 521 521 521 The Fertilizer Working Group - 16 - June 1994 COUNTRY AMMONIA SUPPL'V CAPABILITY (000 TONS N) 1992/93 1993194 1994195 1995/96 1996197 1997/98 1998199 ASIA 33.081 33861 35.258 36795 37.622 39.15 40,261 West Asia 2,906 3.120 3,650 4.159 4,206 4.767 4.969 United Arab Emirates 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 Bahrain 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 Iran 226 226 302 388 407 797 797 Iraq (13) (16) 277 653 661 669 677 Israel 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 Kuwait 367 367 367 367 367 367 367 Oatar 488 488 488 488 488 651 834 Saudi Arabia 804 960 1.135 1,174 1,193 1.193 1,193 Syria Arab Rep. 109 109 109 109 109 109 109 Turkey 536 596 581 591 591 591 591 South Asia 9.008 9,296 9,626 10,258 10,767 11,157 11.537 Afghanistan 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 Bangladesh 892 961 972 1,064 1,166 1,286 1.503 Myanmar 86 86 e6 86 86 86 86 India 6,809 6,897 7,152 7,569 7.788 7,970 8.120 Pakistan 1,159 1,299 1.363 1,487 1.674 1,763 1,775 East Asia 21,166 21,445 21,982 22,378 22,649 23,234 23,765 China 15,349 15,608 15.876 15.992 16,201 16,662 16,996 Indonesia 2.360 2,380 2,649 2,929 2,991 3,115 3.312 Japan 1,553 1,553 1,553 1,553 1,553 1.553 1,553 Malaysia 274 274 274 27$ 274 274 274 Korea, D.P.R. 747 747 747 747 747 747 747 Korea Rep. of 587 587 587 587 587 587 567 Taiwan 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 Vietnam, Dem. Rep. 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 The Fertlizer Working Group - 17 - June 1994 COUNTRY AMMONIA SUPPLY CAPABILITY (000 TONS N) 1992/93 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996/97 1997198 1998199 EUROPE 1.474 17,496 16,970 16,985 17015 17,193 17,265 Eastem Europe 7,888 7,940 7,896 7,901 7,931 8,109 8,181 Albania 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 Bulgaria 893 893 893 893 893 893 893 Czech Republic 682 672 662 662 662 662 662 Hungary 352 318 245 245 245 245 245 Poland 1,545 1,560 1,590 1,605 1,605 1,605 1,605 Romania 1.893 2,000 2,000 2,000 2.000 2,000 2.031 Slovak Republic 2.340 2.348 2.348 2.348 2,348 2,348 2.385 Former Yugoslavia 154 120 120 120 150 328 333 Western Europe 10,586 9,556 9,084 9,084 9,084 9,084 9,084 Austria 418 399 380 380 380 380 380 Belgium-Lux. 656 700 723 723 723 723 723 Finland 28 0 0 C0 0 0 0 France 1,495 1,373 1,373 1,373 1,373 1,373 1,373 Germany 1,459 1,283 1,108 1,108 1,108 1,108 1,108 Greece 132 88 88 88 88 88 88 Iceland 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Ireland 329 329 329 329 329 329 329 Italy 1,085 863 863 863 863 863 863 Netherlands 2.887 2,581 2,441 2,441 2,441 2 441 2,441 Norway 352 276 200 200 200 200 200 Portugal 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 Spain 519 438 353 353 353 353 353 Switzerland 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 Urited Kingdom 1,041 1,041 1,041 1,041 1,041 1,041 1,041 FSU 14,911 14,68 14,465 14,069 14,675 14,267 14,040 Belarus 668 658 548 630 658 639 629 Estonia 179 176 173 169 176 171 168 Georgia 215 211 208 202 211 205 202 Lithuania 346 341 336 327 341 331 326 Russian Federation 8,886 8,750 8.620 8,384 8,745 8,502 8,367 Tadzikistan 67 66 65 63 66 64 63 rurkmenistan 199 196 193 188 196 190 187 Ukraine 3,338 3,287 3,238 3,149 3,285 3,194 3,143 Uzbekistan 1,014 998 983 356 997 970 954 OCEANIA 549 549 549 549 549 549 549 Australia 481 481 481 481 481 481 481 New Zealand 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 The Fertlizer Working Group -18- June 1994 REGIONAL AMMONIA CAPACITY (000 TONS N) 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998199 WORLD 112,519 112.t85 113,187 113.6514 13775 114.460 114.398 AFRICA 3,669 3.778 3, 3778 3,778 3,778 3,778 AMERICA 22,438 22, 2,068 22.119 22.t56 22.156 22,156 North America 16.499 16,486 16.517 16.568 16.605 16.605 16,605 CentralAmerica 3.813 3,919 3,425 3.425 3,425 S.425 3,A25 South America 2.126 2.126 2,126 2.126 2,126 2.126 2,126 ASIA 42.415 43.458 45.376 46,363 47.045 48,262 U.262 WestAsia 5.182 5.467 5,739 5.739 5,739 6.146 6.146 SouthAsia 11.460 11,631 12.365 13,352 13,494 13,494 13,494 East Asia 25.773 26,360 27,272 27.272 27,812 28.622 28,622 EUROPE 21,414 20.068 20,068 20.068 20.068 20,068 20.068 Eastem Europe 9.170 8,944 8,944 8.944 8,944 8.944 8.944 WestemrEurope 12.244 11,124 11,124 11.124 11.124 11.124 11,124 FSU 21,973 21.740 21.287 20.I76 19.5 OCEANIA 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 The Fertilizer Working Group - 19 - June 1994 REGIONAL AMMONIA SUPPLY CAPABIUTY (000 TONS N) 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998199 WORLD 904 9,452 91,055 92,309 93.821 95,145 96,093 AFRICA 2,527 2.801 28B51 2.882 2.887 2.887 2.887 AMERICA 21,205 21.06 20,963 21029 21,073 21,092 21.092 North America 16,047 16,087 16,147 16,213 16.257 16,276 16.276 Central America 3,420 3.221 3.061 3,061 3,061 3,061 3,061 South America 1,738 1.755 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 1.755 ASIA 33,081 33,S61 35,258 36.795 37,622 39,158 40.261 WestAsia 2,906 3.120 3,650 4,159 4.206 4,767 4,959 South Asia 9,008 9,296 9,626 10,258 10,767 11,157 11,537 East Asia 21,166 21,445 21,982 22,378 22,649 23,234 23,765 EUROPE 18,474 117496 16.970 16.985 17,015 17193 17,265 Eastem Europe 7,888 7,940 7,886 7,901 7,931 8,109 8,181 Westem Europe 10,586 9,556 9,084 9,084 9,084 9,084 9,084 FSU A4,91 14,684 14,465 14,069 14967S 1467 40 OCEANIA 549 549 549 549 549 549 549 The Fertilizer Working Group - 20 - June 1994 REGIONAL NON-AMMONIA NITROGEN SUPPLY (000 TONS NJ 1992193 1993/94 1994195 1996/96 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 WORLD 552 545 554 560 567 568 568 AFRICA 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 AMERICA 98 98 98 99 99 100 100 North Amenca 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 Central Amenca 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 South America 8 8 8 9 9 1 0 10 ASIA 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 West Asia 0 0 O 0 0 0 0 South Asia 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 EastAsia 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 EUROPE 140 138 142 142 144 144 144 Eastem Europe 44 42 46 46 48 48 48 Western Europe 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 FSU 140 136 140 145 150 160 150 OCEANIA 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 The FertilzerWorking Group - 21 - June 1994 REGIONAL NITROGEN FERTILIZER DEMAND 1992193 1993194 1994/95 19965/96 1996/97 1997/98 1990/99 2003/04 WORLD 73,634 7Z42 72,72 73,800 75 01 76 150 77,500 931630 AFRICA 2,092 2.140 2.200 2.SD 2300 2,350 2,400 2.700 AMERICA 15 163 16,69 0 15830 16,060 1624 40 17.000 NorthAmerica 11,576 11,900 11,800 11.900 12,000 12,050 12,100 12.300 Central America 1,792 1,840 1.880 1.940 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,300 South America 1,785 1,850 1.920 1.990 2.060 2.140 2.200 2.400 ASIA 39.647 38,600 18,9S 39,700 40,450 41,170 42.05 46,500 West Asia 2.811 2.800 2.800 2,850 2,900 2.920 2,950 3.200 South Asia 10,946 11.250 11.350 11.600 11.850 12.100 12.400 14.000 East Asia 25.790 24.550 24,800 25.250 25,700 26,150 26,700 29.300 China 20,090 18,700 18.800 19,100 19.400 19.700 20.100 22,000 Other East Asia 5.700 5.850 6,000 6.150 6.300 6,450 6.600 7.300 EUROPE 10.976 10.944 10,800 10,730 10,690 10,660 10.700 10[630 Eastem Europe 1,759 1.800 1,860 1,940 2,040 2,150 2,250 2.500 Westem Europe 9,217 9.144 8,940 8.790 8.650 8,510 8.450 8,130 FSU 5.249 4.500 4,500 4.600 4,800 5000 5,200 6.000 OCEANIA 617 650 670 690 710 730 750 800 Thie Fertilizer Working Group 22 June 1994 REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL AND FEED NITROGEN DEMAND (000 TONS N) 1992193 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996197 1997198 1998/99 WORLD 9,900 9,850 9,985 10,140 10,300 10,440 10,580 AFRICA 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 AMERICA 3,610 3,660 3,710 3,760 3,810 3,860 3,910 Norlh America 3.350 3.400 3-450 3.500 3.550 3.600 3.650 CentralAAmerica 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 South America 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 ASIA 1,900 1,900 1,930 11980 2,030 2,080 2.130 West Asia 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 SouthAsia 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 East Asia 1.620 1.620 1.650 1.700 1.750 1,800 1,850 EUROPE 2 2830 30 885 2940 3000 3,040 3,080 Eastem Europe 480 480 485 490 500 540 580 Westem Europe 2.350 2.350 2,400 2,450 2.500 2.500 2.500 FSU 1 050 1 1,050 1.050 1,050 1,050 1.050 OCEANIA 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 The Fertilizer Working Group - 23 - June 1994 WORLD AND REGIONAL NITROGEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS N) WORLD TOTAL 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998199 NH3 Nominal Capacity 112.519 112.185 113.187 113.654 113.775 114.460 114.398 NH3 Supply Capability 90 747 90.452 91.055 92.309 93,821 95.145 96.093 NH3 Industnal Use 9800 9.850 9.985 10.140 10,300 10,440 10.580 Losses 6.476 6.448 6.486 6.574 6.682 6.776 6.841 NH3 Available for Ferts 74.471 74.154 74,584 75,596 76,839 77,929 78.672 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 552 545 554 560 567 568 568 N Ferts Supply Potential 75.023 74.699 75.138 76.156 77,406 78.497 79.240 N Ferts Consumption 73.634 72.424 72.720 73.800 75,010 76.150 77.500 Surplus (-Deficit) 1.389 2.275 2.418 2.356 2,396 2,347 1.740 AFRICA 1992193 1993194 1994/95 1995196 1996197 1997198 199899 NH3 Nominal Capaciy 3.669 3.778 3.778 3.778 3,778 3,778 3.778 NH3 Supply Capabilitv 2.527 2.801 2.851 2.882 2.887 2,887 2.887 NH3 industnal Use 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 Losses 180 202 206 208 209 209 209 NH3 Available for Ferts 2.067 2.319 2.366 2.394 2.398 2,398 2.398 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 N Ferts Supply Potential 2.088 2.340 2.387 2.415 2.419 2.419 2.419 N Ferts Consumption 2.092 2.140 2.200 2,250 2.300 2.350 2.400 Surplus (-Deficit) (4) 200 187 165 119 69 19 AMERICA 1992/93 1993194 1994/95 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998199 NH3 Nominal Capacity 22.438 22.531 22.068 22.119 22.156 22,156 22.156 NH3 Supply Capability 21.205 21.062 20.963 21.029 21.073 21,092 21.092 NH3 Industrial Use 3.610 3.660 3,710 3.760 3,810 3.860 3,910 Losses 1.408 1.392 1.380 1.382 1.381 1,379 1.375 NH3 Available for Ferts 16.187 15.010 15,873 15.868 15,882 15.853 15.807 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 98 98 98 99 99 100 100 N Ferts.Supply Potential 16,285 16.108 15.971 15.987 15.981 15,953 15,907 N Ferts. Consumption 15,153 15,590 15.600 15,830 16,060 16.240 16.400 Surplus (-Deficit) 1.132 518 371 157 (79) (287) (493) North America 1992/93 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 NH3 Nominal Capacity 16.499 16.486 16.517 16,568 16,605 16.605 16,605 NH3 Supply Capability 16.047 16.087 16.147 16.213 16.257 16.276 16.276 NH3 Industrial Use 3.350 3.400 3,450 3.500 3,550 3,600 3,650 Losses 1.016 1.015 1.016 1.017 1,017 1.014 1.010 NH3 Available for Ferts 11.681 11.672 11.681 11.696 11,691 11,662 11.616 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 N Ferts.Supply Potential 11.771 11.762 11.771 11,786 11,781 11.752 11,706 NFerts.Consumption 11,576 11,900 11,800 11,900 12,000 12,050 12,100 Surplus I-Deficit) 195 (13B) (29) (114) (219) (298) (394) The Fertilizer Working Group - 24 - June 1994 WORLD AND REGIONAL NITROGEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS N) Central Amnerica 1992/93 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997/98 1999199 NH3 Nominal Capacity 3,813 3.919 3,425 3.425 3.425 3,425 3,425 NH3 Supply Capability 3.420 3.221 3,061 3,061 3,061 3,061 3.061 NH3 lndustnal Use 1t0 110 110 110 110 110 110 Losses 265 249 236 236 236 236 236 NH3 Available for Ferts 3.045 2.862 2,71S 2.715 2.715 2,715 2,715 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N Ferts.Supply Potential 3.045 2.862 2,715 2.715 2.715 2,715 2,715 N Ferts. Consumption 1,792 1.840 1,880 1.940 2,000 2.050 2,100 Surplus (-Deficit) 1.253 1,022 835 775 715 665 615 South America 1992193 1993194 1994/95 1995196 1996X97 1997/98 1998199 NH3 Nominal Capacity 2.126 2.126 2.126 2.126 2.126 2,126 2,126 NH3 Supply Capability 1.736 1.755 1,755 1.755 1.755 1,755 1,755 NH3 Industrial Use 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 Losses 127 128 128 128 128 128 128 NH3 Available for Ferts. 1,461 1,477 1.477 1.477 1.477 1.477 1,477 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 N Ferts.Supply Potential 1,469 1,485 1,485 1,486 1,486 1,487 1,487 N Ferts. Consumption 1.785 1,850 1,920 1,990 2,060 2,140 2,200 Surplus (-Deficit) (316) (365) (435) (504) (574) (653) (713) ASIA 1992193 1993/94 1994/95 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998199 NH3 Nominal Capacity 42,415 43.458 45.376 46.363 47.045 48.262 48,262 NH3 Supply Capability 33,081 33,861 35.258 36,795 37,622 39,158 40,261 NH3 Industrial Use 1,900 1,900 1,930 1,980 2,030 2,080 2,130 Losses 2.494 2,557 2,666 2,785 2,847 2,966 3,050 NH3 Available for Ferts. 28,686 29,404 30,661 32,030 32,745 34,112 35,080 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 N Ferts.Supply Potential 28,830 29,548 30,805 32.174 32.889 34,256 35,224 N Ferts. Consumption 39,547 38,600 38,950 39,700 40.450 41,170 42,050 Surplus (-Deficit) (10.717) (9,052) (8,145) (7,526) (7,561) (6,914) (6,826) WestAsia 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995/96 1996197 1997198 199389 NH3 Nominal Capacity 5.182 5,467 5,739 5,739 5,739 6,146 6,146 NH3 Supply Capability 2,906 3,120 3,650 4,159 4,206 4,767 4,959 NH3 Industrial Use 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 Losses 222 239 282 322 326 371 386 NH3 Available for Ferts. 2,554 2,751 3,238 3,707 3,750 4,266 4,442 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N Ferts.Supply Potential 2,554 2,751 3,238 3,707 3,750 4,266 4,442 N Ferts. Consumption 2.811 2,800 2,800 2,850 2,900 2,920 2,950 Surplus (-Deficit) (257) (49) 438 857 850 1.346 1.492 The Fertilizer Wohrking Group - 25 - June 1994 WORLD AND REGIONAL NITROGEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS N) South Asia 1992/93 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 NH3 Nominal Capacity 11,460 11.631 12.365 13,352 13.494 13,494 13,494 NH3 Supply Capability 9.008 9.296 9,626 10,258 10,767 11,157 11.537 NH3 industral Use 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 Losses 709 732 758 809 849 881 911 NH3AvailableforFents. 8,150 8.414 8.718 9,299 9.768 10,127 10.476 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 N Ferts.Supply Potential 8,174 8,438 8,742 9,323 9,792 10,151 10,500 N Ferts. Consumption 10.946 11.250 11,350 11,600 11.850 12,100 12,400 Surplus (-Deficit) (2.772) (2.812) (2,608) (2,277) (2,058) (1,949) (1,900) East Asia 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996/97 1997198 1998/99 NH3 Nominal Capacity 25.773 26.360 27,272 27,272 27.812 28,622 28.622 NH3 Supply Capability 21.166 21,445 21,982 22,378 22,649 23,234 23,765 NH3 Industrial Use 1.620 1,620 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1.850 Losses 1,564 1.586 1,627 1,654 1,672 1,715 1.753 N H3 Available for Ferts. 17,983 18.239 18,706 19,024 19,227 19,719 20,162 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 N Ferts.Supply Potential 18,103 18,359 18,826 19,144 19,347 19,839 20.282 N Ferts. Consumption 25.790 24.550 24,800 25,250 25,700 26,150 26.700 Surplus I-Deficit) (7,687) (6,191) (5,974) (6,106) (6,353) 6,311) (6,418) EUROPE 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996/97 1997198 1999/99 NH3 Nominal Capacity 21,414 20.068 20.068 20,068 20,068 20,068 20,068 NIH3 Supply Capability 18,474 17,496 16,970 16,985 17,015 17,193 17,265 NH3 Industrial Use 2,830 2,830 2,885 2,940 3.000 3,040 3,080 Losses 1.252 1,173 1.127 1,124 1,121 1,132 1,135 NH3 Available for Ferts. 14,392 13.493 12,958 12,921 12,893 13,020 13,050 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 140 138 142 142 144 144 144 N Ferts.Supply Potential 14,532 13,631 13,100 13,063 13,037 13,164 13,194 N Ferts. Consumption 10,976 10,944 10,800 10,730 10,690 10,660 10,700 Surplus (-Deficit) 3,556 2,687 2,300 2,333 2,347 2,504 2.494 East Europe 1991192 1992193 1993194 1994/95 1995196 1996197 1996/98 NH3 Nominal Capacity 9,170 8,944 8,944 8,944 8,944 8,944 8,944 NH3 Supply Capability 7,888 7.940 7,886 7,901 7,931 8,109 8,181 NH3 Industrial Use 480 480 485 490 500 540 580 Losses 593 597 592 593 594 606 608 NH3 Available for Ferts. 6,815 6,863 6,809 6,18 6.837 6,964 6,993 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 44 42 46 46 48 48 48 N Ferts.Supply Potential 6,859 6,905 6,855 6,864 6,885 7.012 7.041 N Ferts. Consumption 1,759 1,800 1,860 1,940 2,040 2,150 2,250 Surplus I-Deficit) 5,100 5,105 4,955 4,924 4,U4'j 4,862 4,791 The Fertilizer Working Group - 26 - June 1994 WORLD AND REGIONAL NITROGEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS N) West Europe 1992193 1993/94 1994196 1995/96 1996197 1997198 1991199 NH3NominalCapacity 12,244 11.124 11,124 11.124 11.124 11,124 11,124 NH3 Supply Capability 10.586 9.556 9,084 9.084 9,084 9,084 9.084 NH3 Industrial Use 2,350 2.350 2.400 2.450 2,500 2,500 2.500 Loss, ' 659 577 535 531 527 527 527 NH3 Available for Ferts. 7.577 6.630 6.149 6.103 6.057 6,057 6.057 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 N Ferts.Supply Potential 7.673 6,726 6,245 6.199 6,153 6.153 6.Iaj N Ferts. Consumption 9.217 9,144 8.940 8.790 8,650 8,510 8.450 Surplus (-Deficit) (1,544) (2.418) (2.695) (2.691) (2,497) (2,3571 (2.297) FSU 1992193 1993/94 1994195 1995/96 1996197 1997198 1998199 NH3 Nominal Capacity 21.973 21.740 21.287 20,716 20,118 19,586 19.524 NH3 Supply Capability 14.911 14.682 14,465 14.069 14,675 14,267 14,040 NH3 Industrial Use 1.050 1.050 1.050 1.050 1.050 1,050 1,050 Losses 1.109 1,091 1.073 1.042 1,090 1.057 1,039 NH3 Available for Ferts. 12.752 12,542 12,342 11.978 12,535 12,159 11,950 Non-NH3Nitrogen 140 135 140 145 150 150 150 N Ferts.Supply Potential 12.892 12,677 12.482 12.123 12,685 12,309 12,100 N Ferts. Consumption 5.249 4,500 4,500 4.600 4,800 5,000 5,200 Surplus (-Deficit) 7,643 8,177 7,982 7,523 7.885 7,309 6,900 OCEANIA 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996/97 1997198 1998/99 NH3 Norninal Capacity 610 610 610 610 610 610 610 NH3 Supply Capability 549 549 549 549 549 549 549 NH3 lndustrial Use 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 Losses 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 NH3 Available for Ferts. 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 Non-NH3 Nitrogen 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 N Ferts.Supply Potential 394 394 '394 394 394 394 394 N Ferts. Consumption 617 650 670 690 710 730 750 Surplus (-Deficit) (:23) (256J (276) (296) (316) (336) (35S) PHOSPHATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES 1992193 - 1998/99 Fertilizer WoAbrking Group - 28 - June 1994 COUNTRY PHOSPHORIC ACID CAPACITY (000 TONS P205) 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 WORLD 34,15 34.050 34.603 L6M 35,449 36.018 36,348 AFRICA 5,525 5.525 5.525 5.550 5.550 5.850 6,180 Algeria 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 Egypt 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 Morocco 2.772 2.772 2.772 2.772 2.772 3.072 3.402 Senegal 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 Tanzania 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Tunisia 1.352 1.352 1.352 1.352 1.352 1.352 1.352 South Africa 876 876 876 901 901 901 901 Zmbabwe 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 AMERICA 13,461 13,399 13545 113,575 13,683 ,683 13,683 North America 11,910 11,828 11,974 12,004 12,112 12.112 12,112 Canada 627 486 486 486 486 486 486 USA 11,283 11,342 11.488 11.51B 11.626 11.626 11.626 Central Arnerica 761 761 761 761 761 761 il, Mexico 761 761 761 761 761 761 761 South Arnerica 790 810 810 810 810 810 810 Brazil 715 735 735 735 735 735 735 Venezuela 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 ASIA 4,699 4792 5.199 5,822 5,892 6.161 6,161 West Asia 2,248 2,288 2,244 2.544 2,584 2,804 2,804 Cyprus 0 40 40 40 40 40 40 Iran 215 215 215 215 215 215 215 Iraq 416 416 416 416 416 416 416 Israel 407 407 434 734 734 734 734 Jordan 410 410 410 410 450 670 670 Lebanon 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 SyriaArab Rep. 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 Turkey 541 541 470 470 470 470 470 South Asia 549 549 774 774 774 793 793 Bangladesh 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 India 493 493 718 718 718 737 737 Fertilizer WAorking Group - 29 - June 1994 COUNTRY P110SPHORIC ACID CAPACIlY (000 TONS P206) 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997/98 1998199 East Asia 1,902 1,955 2,181 2,604 2,534 2,564 2,564 China 306 391 617 940 970 1,000 1.000 Indonesia 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 Japan 410 378 378 378 378 378 378 Korea Rep. of 555 555 555 555 555 555 555 Philippines 408 408 408 408 408 408 408 Taiwan 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 EUROPE 3,347 3.212 3,212 3,212 3,202 3,202 3,Z02 Eastem Europe 1.376 1.376 1,376 1,376 1.366 1.366 1,366 Bulgaria 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Czech Republic 10 1a 10 10 0 0 0 Polar.d 639 639 639 639 639 639 639 Romania 362 362 362 362 362 362 362 FormerYugoslavia 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 Western Europe 1,971 1.836 1.836 1,B36 1,836 1,836 1,836 Austria 55 0 0 0 a 0 0 Belgium-Lux. 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 Finland 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 France 322 242 242 242 242 242 242 Germany 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Greece 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 Italy 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 Netherlands 282 282 282 282 282 282 282 Spain 495 495 495 495 495 495 495 Sweden 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 United Kingdom 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FSU 7,065 7,065 7,065 7,065 7,6 7065 7,065 Belarus 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 Kazakhstan 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 Uthuania 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 Russian Federation 4,131 4.131 4,131 4,131 4,131 4,131 4,131 Turkmenistan 325 325 325 325 325 325 325 Ukraine 710 710 710 710 710 710 710 Uzbekistan 1,180 1,180 1,180 1.180 1,180 1,180 1,180 OCEANIA 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 Australia 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 Fertilizer Working Group - 30 - June 1994 COUNTRY PHOSPHORIC ACID SUPPLY CAPABILITY (000 TONS P2051 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998199 WORLD 26.652 26.289 26S 27,100 2774 28,287 28,733 AFRICA 4.864 4.864 4.876 4,887 5,109 5.486 5.821 Algeria 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Egypt 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 Morocco 2.495 2,495 2.495 2.495 2.615 2.891 3.203 Senegal 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 Tanzania 0 0 13 13 1 3 13 13 Tunisia 1.217 1,217 1.217 1.217 1.217 1.217 1.217 South Africa 788 788 788 800 901 1.002 1,025 Zimbabwe 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 AMERICA 12.3 127328 12,546 12,59 12,6 1272 12,728 North America 11.005 10.998 11.205 11.246 11.311 11,362 11,362 Canada 502 445 389 389 389 389 389 USA 10.503 10.553 10,816 10.858 10,922 10.973 10.973 Central America 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 Mexico 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 South America 802 760 770 782 793 794 795 Brazil 732 689 698 709 719 713 719 Venezuela 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 ASIA 3.120 3.176 3,287 3.553 3,8t0 4.034 4.250 West Asia 1,376 1,446 1,514 1.634 1,772 1,903 2,092 Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Iran 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 Iraq 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 Israel 335 348 360 481 602 629 643 Jordan 328 328 328 328 344 448 624 Lebanon 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 Syria Arab Rep. 0 56 112 112 112 112 112 Turkey 379 379 379 379 379 379 379 South Asia 138 93 93 93 93 140 142 Bangladesh 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 India 99 54 54 54 54 101 102 Fertilizer Working Group - 31 - June 1994 COUNTRY PHOSPHORIC ACID SUPPLY CAPABILITY 1000 TONS P205) 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998/99 East Asia 1.606 1,637 1,680 1,826 1.946 1,992 2,016 China 200 230 288 425 545 591 614 Indonesia 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 Japan 369 355 340 340 340 340 340 Korea Rep. of 555 555 555 555 555 555 555 Philippines 312 326 326 326 326 326 326 Taiwan 26 26 26 35 35 36 36 EUROPE 2,893 2s524 2488 2,663 2.751 2i411 2.536 Eastem Europe 981 976 1,001 1,003 1,092 1,091 1.094 Bulgaria 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 Czech Republic 9 9 9 9 5 0 0 Poland 505 511 511 511 511 511 511 Romania 187 176 202 204 297 300 304 Former Yugoslavia 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 Westem Europe 1.912 1,548 1.488 1,659 1,659 1,550 1.441 Austria 50 25 0 0 0 0 0 Belgium-Lux. 344 248 248 248 248 248 248 Finland 196 212 212 212 212 212 212 France 389 254 218 218 218 109 0 Germany 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 Greece 114 87 87 140 140 140 140 Italy 0 0 0 119 119 119 119 Netherlands 317 254 254 254 254 254 254 Portugal 0 0 0 ° 0 0 0 Spain 470 470 470 470 470 470 470 Sweden 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 United Kingdom 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FSU 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 Belarus 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 Kazakhstan 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 LithLuania 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 Russian Federation 1.957 1.957 1.957 1,957 1.957 1.957 1,957 Turkmenistan 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 Ukraine 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 Uzbekistan 559 559 559 559 559 559 559 OCEANIA 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 Australia 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 Fertilizer VWorking Group - 32 - June 1994 REGIONAL PHOSPHORIC ACID CAPACITY (000 TONS P205) 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996197 1997/S9 1998199 WORLD 34.154 34 tf0 34,603 3528 35."9 36,018 36,348 AFRICA 5.525 § 5,525 5.560 5.550 5,850 6180 AMERICA 13.461 13,399 13,545 13,575 13,683 13.683 13,683 NorthAmerica 11,910 11.828 11.974 12,004 12,112 12.112 12,112 Central America 761 761 761 761 761 761 761 South America 790 810 810 810) 810 810 810 ASIA 4.699 4.792 5,199 5,822 5.B92 6,161 6.161 West Asia 2.248 2,288 2.244 2,544 2,584 2.804 2.804 South Asia 549 549 774 774 774 793 793 East Asia 1.902 1,955 2.181 2,504 2,534 2,564 2.S64 EUROPE 3,347 3,212 3.3212 3,212 3.202 3.202 Eastem Europe 1,376 1,376 1.375 1.376 1,366 1,366 1,366 Westem Europe 1,971 1,836 1.836 1.836 1,836 1,836 1,836 FSU 7,065 7.065 7.065 7065 7.065 7,065 OCEANIA 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 FetilIzer Working Group - 33 - June 1994 REGIONAL PHOSPHORIC ACID SUPPLY CAPABILITY (000 TONS P2056 1992)93 1993194 1994196 1995196 1996/97 1997198 1998199 WORLD 2 2g6,595 2.100 27.743 28.287 2,3 AFRICA 4.864 4.864 4.,76 4.887 6.109 6,486 9,821 AMERICA 1?.377 12,3 12646 1,9 12.676 12.727 12,728 North America 11,005 10,998 11,205 11,246 11,311 11,362 11,362 Central America 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 South Amenca 802 760 770 782 793 794 795 ASIA 3.120 3.175 3.297 3,63 3.810 4.034 4,250 West Asia 1,376 1.446 1.514 1,634 1,772 1,903 2.092 South Asia 138 93 93 93 93 140 142 East Asia 1.606 1.637 1,680 1,826 1,946 1,992 2.016 EUROPE 2,893 2.524 2,488 2,663 2.751 2.641 2,636 Eastem Europe 981 976 1.001 1,003 1,092 1,091 1,094 Westem Europe 1,912 1.548 1.488 1.659 1.659 1,550 1,441 FSU 3.348 3.348 3.348 3z3 3,348 3.348 3348 OCEANIA 51 51 51 51 S1 51 51 Fertilzer Working Group - 34 - June 1994 REGIONAL NON-PHOSPHORIC ACID SUPPLY CAPABILITY (000 TONS P205) 1992193 1993194 1994419 1996196 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 WORLD 12.470 12.4B6 12,60 12,616 12,66 12,620 12.686 AFRICA 610 620 630 640 660 660 670 AMERICA 986 990 996 1.000 1.006 1.010 U1. North America 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 CeritralAmerica 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 South America 605 610 615 620 625 630 635 ASIA 6.725 6.776 5.826 5,876 6.960 6P60 6.1S0 West Asia 225 225 225 225 250 300 350 South Asia 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 East Asia 4.750 4.800 4.850 4.900 4,950 5.000 5,050 EUROPE 2.350 2.300 2.250 2,200 2,1S0 2,100 2,0SO Eastem Europe 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 Westem Europe 1.600 1.600 1,600 1.600 1,600 1.600 1,600 FSU 2250 2.250 Z2,2S0 2,250 2.2S0 OCEANIA 650 650 660 650 660 650 650 Fertilizer Working Group - 35 - June 1994 REGIONAL PHOSPHATE FERTIUZER DEMAND (000 TONS P206) 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998199 2003104 WORLD 31,496 29.147 30.120 30 760 6 32260 33.080 36,S90 AFRICA 1.073 1.100 1.160 1.170 1.190 1.210 1.240 1.400 AMERICA 6 7.150 7.210 7.330 7A40 740 7.640 7.960 North America 4,643 4.700 4,700 4,760 4,800 4,830 4,860 4,900 Central America 443 500 510 520 540 560 580 650 South Amenca 1.891 1.950 2.000 2.050 2,100 2,150 2,200 2,400 ASIA 14A440 t36 14,060 14,470 14,910 13 16.70 17.200 West Asia 1.641 1.660 1,600 1,650 1,680 1,730 1,780 2,000 Sou.n Asia 3,630 3.700 3,800 3.900 4,100 4,250 4,450 5.000 East Asta 9.169 8,500 8.660 8.920 9.130 9.340 9,550 10,200 China 6,682 6.000 6,100 6.300 6.450 6,600 6,750 7,200 Others In E. Asia 2.487 2.500 2,560 2.620 2,680 2,740 2,800 3,000 EUROPE 4.3 4.227 4.170 4,140 4.110 4.090 4.120 i,2s0 Eastern Europe 588 620 650 680 710 750 800 1.000 Western Europe 3.746 3,607 3.520 3.460 3.400 3.340 3,320 3,240 FSU 3O676 1S010 21.00 2,00 1M070 1,090 31200 41e00 OCEANIA 996 1,010 1,030 1,060 1,070 1.090 1.100 1.200 Fertizer Vtking Gmup -36- June 1994 REGIONAL NON-FERVUZER PHOSPHORIC ACID DEMAND (000 TONS P206) 1992193 1993194 1994U95 1996M 1996197 1997138 19931S9 WORLD 2,075 2.074 2.092 2.106 2.114 2.122 2.130 AFRICA 77 79 81 93 9S 87 89 AMERICA 316 829 842 864 867 879 891 North Amernca 630 640 650 660 670 680 690 Central America 85 87 89 90 91 92 93 SouthAmerica 101 102 103 104 106 107 108 ASIA 282 286 289 292 295 298 301 Vest Asia 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 South Asla 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 EastAsi 174 175 175 175 175 175 175 EUROPE 736 720 716 710 700 690 680 Eastem Europe 95 90 95 100 100 100 100 Westem Europe 640 630 620 610 600 590 580 FSU 140 135 140 141 142 143 144 OCEANIA 26 25 26 26 25 26 2C Feilizer Working Group - 37 - June 1994 WORLD AND REGIONAL PHOSPHATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES o00e TONS P205) WORLD 1992193 1993/94 1994196 1996196 1996197 1997198 1998199 Phos. Acid Capacity 34,154 34.050 34,603 35,281 35,449 36,018 36.348 Phos. Acid Supply Capability 26.652 26,289 26.595 27,100 27,743 28,287 28,733 Non-Fert Acid Consumption 2.075 2.074 2,092 2,105 2,114 2,122 2,130 Fert. Acid Supply Capability 23.594 23,247 23,523 23.995 24.603 25,118 25,539 Other Phosphate Supply 12.470 12,485 12.500 12,515 12.555 12,620 12.685 Total Fert. Phos Sup. Capab 36,064 35,732 36.023 36,510 37,158 37.738 38.224 Fert Phos Supply Potential 34.982 34,660 34,943 35,415 36,044 36,606 37,077 Fert. Phos Consumption 31.496 29.847 30,120 30.760 31,520 32,250 33.080 Surplus (-Deficit) 3.48S 4,13 4923 4,655 4,524 4,356 3,997 AFRICA 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 Phos. Acid Capacity 5.525 5.525 5.525 5.550 5,550 5,850 6,180 Phos. Acid Supply Capabilitv 4.864 4.864 4.876 4.887 5,109 5,486 5.821 Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 Fert, Acid Supply Capability 4.595 4.593 4,603 4.612 4.823 5,183 5,503 Other Phosphate Supply 510 520 530 540 550 560 570 Total Fert, Phos. Sup. Capab. 5.105 5,113 5,133 5.152 5,373 5,743 6,073 Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 4,952 4,960 4,979 4.998 5,212 5,571 5,890 Fert. Phos. Consumption 1,073 1,100 1,150 1.170 1.190 1,210 1,240 Surplus (-Deficit 3.879 3,860 3,829 3.828 4,022 4.361 4.650 AMERICA 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996/97 1997198 1998/99 Phos. Acid Capacity 13,461 13.399 13,545 13,575 13.683 13,683 13,683 Phos. Acid Supply Capability 12.377 12.328 12,546 12.599 12.675 12,727 12,728 Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 816 829 842 854 867 879 891 Fert. Acid Supply Capability 11.099 11.039 11,260 11.275 11,336 11,374 11,364 Other Phosphate Supply 985 990 995 1.000 1,005 1,010 1,015 Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 12,084 12,029 12,255 12.275 12,341 12,384 12,379 Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 11.721 11,668 11,888 11.907 11,970 12,013 12,007 Fert. Phos. Consumption 6.977 7,150 7,210 7.330 7,440 7,540 7,640 Surplus (-Deficlit) 4,74 4.518 4,678 4,577 4,530 4.473 4.367 North America 19P2193 1993/94 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998199 Phos.AcidCapacity 11.910 11.828 11,974 12.004 12,112 12,112 12,112 Phos. Acid Supply Capability 11,005 10.998 11,205 11.248 11,311 11,362 11,362 Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 630 640 650 660 670 680 690 Fert. Acid Supply Capability 9,960 9.943 10,132 10,163 10.215 10,255 10.245 Other Phosphate Supply 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 10.210 10,193 10,382 10,413 10.465 10,505 10.495 Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 9,904 9.888 10,071 10.101 10,151 10,190 10.180 Fert. Phos. Consumption 4,643 4,700 4,700 4,760 4,800 4,830 4,860 Surplus (-Deficit) 5,261 5,188 5,371 5,341 5,351 5,360 5,320 FertlUzer Working Group - 38 - June 1994 WORLD AND REGIONAL PHOSPHATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS P205) Central America 1992193 1993194 1994195 1996196 1996/97 1997/93 1998199 Phos. Acid Capacity 761 761 761 761 761 761 761 Phos. Acid Supply Capability 571 571 571 571 571 571 571 Non-Fedt. Acid Consumption 85 87 89 90 91 92 93 Fen. Acid Supply Capability 466 464 462 462 461 460 459 Other Phosphate Supply 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 596 594 592 592 591 590 589 Ferd. Phos. Supply Potental 578 577 575 574 573 572 571 Fert. Phos. Consumption 443 500 510 520 540 560 580 Surplus (-Deficit) 135 77 65 54 33 12 (9) South America 1992193 1993194 1994195 1996196 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 Phos. Acid Capacity 790 810 810 810 810 810 810 Phos. Acid Supply Capability 802 760 770 782 793 794 795 Non-Fert.AcidConsumption 101 102 103 104 106 107 108 Fert. Acid Supply Capability 672 631 641 651 660 660 660 Other Phosphate Supply 605 610 615 620 625 630 635 Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 1.277 1,241 1,256 1,271 1.285 1,290 1,295 Fert. Phos. Supply Potenbal 1.239 1,204 1,218 1,232 1,246 1,251 1,256 Fer. Phos. Consumpton 1,891 1,950 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,200 Surplus (-Deficit) (652) (746) (782) (818) (8643 (899) (944) ASIA 1992193 1993194 1994196 199516 1996/97 1997198 1998199 Phos. Acid Capacity 4,699 4,792 5,199 5,822 5,892 6,161 6,161 Phos. Acid Supply Capability 3.120 3,175 3,287 3.553 3,810 4,034 4,250 Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 282 286 289 292 295 298 301 Fer. Acid Supply Capabillty 2,725 2,774 2,878 3.130 3,374 3,587 3,791 Other Phosphate Supply 5.725 5,775 5,825 5.875 5,950 6,050 6,150 Total Fed. Phos. Sup. Capab. 8,450 8,549 8,703 9.005 9,324 9,637 9,941 Ferd Phos. Supply Potential 8,196 8.292 8,442 8,735 9,045 9,348 9,643 FerL Phos. Consumption 14,440 13,860 14,060 14,470 14,910 15.320 15,780 Surplus (-Deficiti (42IA) (SA,681 (6.618) (16735) (,865,366) L72 16.1371 West Asia 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995/96 1996197 1997198 1998199 Phos. Acid Capacity 2,248 2,288 2,244 2.544 2,584 2,804 2,804 Phos. Acid Supply Capability 1,376 1,446 1,514 1,634 1,772 1,903 2,092 Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 FerL Acid Supply Capabilkty 1,281 1,346 1,409 1.523 1.653 1,776 1,957 Other Phosphate Supply 225 225 225 225 250 300 350 Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 1,506 1.571 1,634 1,748 1,903 2,076 2,307 Fert Phos. Supply Potential 1,461 1,524 1,585 1,695 1,846 2,014 2,238 FedL Phos. Consumption 1.641 1.660 1,600 1,650 1,680 1.730 1,780 Surplus (-Deficit) (180) (136) (163 45 166 234 468 Fartillzer Working Group - 39 - June 1994 WORLD AND REGIONAL PHOSPHATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS P2061 South Asia 1992193 1993194 1894t95 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998199 Phos. Add Capacity 549 549 774 774 774 793 793 Phos. Add Supply Capability 138 93 93 93 93 140 142 Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 Fert. Add Supply Capability 69 25 24 23 22 66 67 Other Phosphate Supply 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 819 775 774 773 772 816 817 Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 794 752 751 750 749 791 792 Fert. Phos. Consumption 3,630 3,700 3,800 3.900 4,100 4.250 4,450 Surplus f-DeficIt) (2,8363 (2,9481 (3.049) (3.150) (3,3513 (3,459) (3.658) East Asia 1992193 1993194 199495 1995196 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 Phos. Acid Capacry 1,902 1,955 2,181 2.504 2.534 2.564 2,564 Phos. Acid Supply Capability 1.606 1,637 1,680 1.826 1.946 1,992 2,016 Non-Fert.AcidConsumption 174 175 175 175 175 175 175 Fert. Acid Supply Capability 1,375 1,403 1,445 1,585 1,700 1,744 1,767 Other Phosphate Supply 4,750 4,800 4,850 4,900 4,950 5.000 5,050 Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 6,125 6,203 6,295 6,485 6,650 6,744 6,817 Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 5.941 6,017 6,106 6,290 6,450 6,542 6,613 Fert. Phos. Consumption 9.169 8,500 8,660 8,920 9,130 9,340 9,550 S-urplus (-Deficit) (3,228) (2,483) (2,554) (2,630) (2,680) (2,798) (2.937) EUROPE 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 Phos. Acid Capacity 3,347 3,212 3,212 3,212 3,202 3.202 3,202 Phos. Acid Supply Capability 2,893 2,524 2,488 2,663 2.751 2,641 2,536 Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 735 720 715 710 700 690 680 Fert Acid Supply Capability 2.072 1,732 1.702 1,874 1,969 1,873 1.781 Other Phosphate Supply 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 2,150 2,100 2.050 Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 4,422 4,032 3,952 4074 4,119 3,973 3,831 Fert Phos. Supply Potential 4,289 3,911 3,834 3,952 3,995 3,854 3.717 FerL Phos. Consumption 4,334 4,227 4,170 4.140 4.110 4,090 4,120 Surplus (-Deficit) (45) (316) (336) (188) (115) (236) (403) East Europe 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998t99 Phos. Add Capacity 1,376 1,376 1.376 1,376 1.366 1.366 1,366 Phos. Add Supply Capability 981 976 1.001 1,003 1.092 1,091 1,094 Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 95 90 95 100 100 100 100 Fert. Acid Supply Capability 850 850 870 867 952 951 955 Other Phosphate Supply 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 1,600 1,550 1,520 1,467 1,502 1,451 1,405 Feft. Phos. Supply Potential 1,552 1,504 1,474 1,423 1,457 1,408 1,362 Fert. Phos. Consumption 588 620 650 680 710 750 600 Surplus (-Deficit) 964 884 824 743 747 658 562 Fedilizer Working Group - 40- June 1994 WORLD AND REGIONAL PHOSPHATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS P206) West Europe 1992/93 1993184 1994/96 1996196 1996197 1997/99 1998/99 Phos. Acid Capacity 1,971 1,836 1,836 1.836 1,836 1,836 1.836 Phos. Acid Supply Capablity 1,912 1,548 1.488 1.659 1,659 1,550 1.441 Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 640 630 620 610 600 590 580 Fert. Acid Supply Capability 1,221 882 833 1.007 1,017 922 827 Other Phosphate Supply 1,600 1,600 1.600 1.600 1,600 1,600 1.600 Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 2,821 2,482 2,433 2,607 2,617 2,522 2,427 Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 2,737 2,407 2,360 2,529 2,538 2,446 2,354 Fert. Phos. Consumption 3,746 3.607 3,520 3,460 3,400 3,340 3,320 Surplus (-Deficit) (1.009) (1,200) (1.160) 1931) (8623 (994) (966) FSU 1992/93 1993194 1994/96 1996196 1996197 1997/98 199BI99 Phos. Acid Capacity 7,065 7,065 7.065 7,065 7,065 7,065 7.065 Phos. Acid Supply Capability 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 140 135 140 141 142 143 144 Fert. Acid Supply Capability 3,079 3,084 3,079 3,078 3,077 3,076 3,075 Other Phosphate Supply 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 5,329 5,334 5,329 5,326 5,327 5,326 5,325 Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 5,169 5,174 5,169 5,16B 5,167 5,167 5,166 Fert. Phos. Consumption 3.676 2,500 2,500 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 Surplus (-Deficit) 1.493 2.674 2.669 2.668 2.367 2.167 1.966 OCEANIA 1992193 1993194 1994/95 1996196 1996/97 1997/98 1991199 Phos.Acid Capacity 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 Phos. Acid Supply Capability 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Fert. Acid Supply Capabllity 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Other Phosphate Supply 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 675 675 675 675 675 675 675 Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 655 655 655 655 655 655 655 Fert. Phos. Consumption 996 1,010 1,030 1,050 1,070 1,090 1.100 Surplus (-Deficit) l3411 (365) (375) (395) (4151 (435}) () POTASH SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES 1992/93 - 1998199 The Fertilizer Working Group - 42 - June 1994 COUNTRY POTASH MINE CAPACITY (000 TONS K20) 1992193 1993194 1994/95 199S196 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 WORLD 36.520 36.3 35,630 35,470 3,770 35 35770 AFRICA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 AMERICA 13,950 3,75 13,81 13,860 14160 114,160 14.160 North America 13.760 13,410 13,470 13,470 13,470 13,470 13.470 Canada 11.845 11,845 11.845 11,845 11,845 11,845 11,845 USA 1.915 1,565 1.625 1.625 1,625 1,625 1,625 Central America 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 South America 190 340 340 390 690 690 690 Argentina 0 0 0 50 50 50 50 Brazil 150 300 300 300 300 300 300 Chile 40 40 40 40 340 340 340 ASIA 2,390 2.390 2.630 2,630 2,630 West Asia 2,220 2,220 2,220 2,460 2,460 2,460 2,460 Israel 1,380 1,380 1,380 1.380 1,380 1,380 1,380 Jordan 840 840 1.080 1.080 1,080 1,080 1,080 South Asia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 East Asia 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 China 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 EUROPE 7,800 7,800 7.050 6.600 6.600 6.600 6,600 Eastern Europe 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Western Europe 7,800 7,800 7,050 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 France 1.500 1,500 1.500 1,500 1,500 1.500 1,500 Germany 4,650 4,650 3.900 3.650 3,650 3.650 3,650 Italy 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 Spain 750 750 750 550 550 550 550 United Kingdom 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 FSU 12.380 12,380 12.380 12.380 12.380 12.380 12,380 Azerbaijan 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 8elarus 5.740 5,740 5,740 5.740 5,740 5.740 5.740 Russian Federation 6.130 6,130 6,130 6.130 6.130 6.130 6,130 Ukraine 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 OCEANIA 0 0 0 0 0 0 a The Feitlizer Working Group - 43 - June 1994 COUNTRY POTASH MINE SUPPLY CAPABILITY (000 TONS K20) 1992193 1993194 1994196 1996196 1996197 1997191 1998199 WORLD 27C11 26,703 6,78 26, Z7.119 27.161 27,888 AFRICA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 AMERICA 11,979 1198 11840 1190 12,148 12.148 12,164 NorthAmerica 11.827 11.686 11,568 11.596 11,596 11,596 11,612 Canada 10,068 10.068 10,068 10.068 10,068 10.068 10.068 USA 1.759 1.617 1,499 1.528 1,528 1.528 1.544 Central Arnenca 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 South America 152 272 272 312 552 562 552 Argenfina 0 0 0 40 40 40 40 Brazil 120 240 240 240 240 240 240 Chile 32 32 32 32 272 272 272 ASIA 2.297 2.312 2,44 2,575 2,579 2,79 2 S79 West Asia 2,220 2,220 2,340 2,460 2.460 2.460 2,460 Israel 1.380 1.380 1,380 1.380 1.380 1.380 1.380 Jordan 840 840 960 1.080 1.080 1,080 1,080 South Asia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 East Asia 77 92 104 115 119 119 119 China 77 92 104 115 119 119 119 EUROPE 6.841 6.658 6.551 6,200 6.205 6,205 6206 EasternEurope 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Westen Europe 6,641 6,658 6,551 6,200 6,206 6,205 6,205 France 1,425 1.425 1,425 1E425 1,425 1.425 1,425 Germany 3.9S5 3.740 3,634 3.373 3,468 3.468 3.468 Italy 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Spain 675 675 675 585 495 495 495 United Kingdom 546 618 618 618 618 618 618 FSU 6G393 5.776 5,9S4 6,125 61187 6.229 6.940 Azerbairan 27 27 27 27 27 30 30 Belarus 2,583 2.583 2.583 2,583 2,583 2,870 2,870 Russian Federation 2759 2,759 2,759 2,759 2.759 3.065 3,065 Ukraine 203 203 203 203 203 225 225 OCEANIA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 The Ferilizer Working Group - 44 - June 1994 REGIONAL POTASH FERTILIZER DEMAND (000 TONS K20) 1992193 1993)94 1994/95 1995)96 1996197 1997198 1993199 2002103 WORLD 20,659 19.085 19,350 19,625 20,22 20,865 21,60 24.050 AFRICA 471 500 520 540 560 580 600 660 AMERICA 6.900 7 717n5 0 750 7,550 7.850 North America 4.946 5P050 5.000 5.050 5.100 5.150 5.200 5.200 Central America 281 300 320 340 360 380 403 450 South Amenrca 1.673 1.800 1.830 1,860 1,890 1.920 1.950 2.200 ASA 5,136 4,975 5,330 5.385 5.690 5.995 6.300 7,430 West Asia 168 175 180 185 190 195 200 230 SouthAsia 1,038 1R100 1,150 1.200 1E300 1.400 1,500 1.800 East Asia 3.930 3.700 4.000 4.000 4.200 4.400 4,600 5.400 China 1,900 1.650 1,900 1.850 2.000 2.150 2.300 2.800 Others 2.030 2.050 2,100 2.150 2.200 2.250 2.300 2,600 EUROPE 4,633 4,560 4440 4,430 4,44 4450 4,500 4.760 Eastem Europe 519 530 570 620 680 740 800 1.100 Westem Europe 4.114 4.030 3.870 3.810 3.760 3.710 3.700 3.660 FSU 3,234 1,600 1,600 1,700 1.850 2,050 2.300 3,000 OCEANIA 285 300 310 320 330 340 350 350 The Fertilizer Working Group - 45 - June 1994 REGIONAL TECHNICAL GRADE POTASH PRODUCllON (000 TONS K20) 1992193 1993194 199495 1991S96 1996197 199738 199839 WORLD 996 J46 a6S 1.186 1.206 1.226 1226 AFRICA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 AMERICA 660 660 650 660 660 650 660 North America 550 650 650 650 650 650 650 Central America 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 South America 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ASIA 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 WestAsia 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 South Asia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EastAsia 11 11 11 11 11 11 ii EUROPE 360 400 400 400 400 400 400 EastemrEurope 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Westem Europe 350 400 400 400 400 400 400 FSU 70 90 110 130 150 150 150 OCEANIA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 The Fertilizer Working Group - 46 - June 1994 WORLD AND REGIONAL POTASH SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS K20) WORLD TOTAL 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996J97 1997198 199899 Potash Mine Capacity 36,520 36,320 35,630 35,470 35.770 35.770 35.770 Potash Mine Supply Capability 27,511 26,703 26,789 26,808 27.119 27,161 27.888 Technrcal Potash Production 996 1,166 1.186 1,205 1.226 1.226 1.226 Potash Fert. Supply Potental 25.380 24,454 24,509 24.499 24,761 24.799 25.455 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 20,659 19,085 19,350 19.625 20,220 20.865 21,6W0 Surplus (-Deficit) 4,721 5,379 1,119 4.864 4,641 3,934 3,861 AFRICA 1992193 1993194 199486 1996196 1996)97 1997198 1998199 Potash Mine Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Mine Supply Capability 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Technical Potash Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Fert Supply Potential 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 471 500 520 540 560 580 600 Surplus (-Deficit) (471) (500) (520) (640) (560) (580) (600) AMERICA 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997193 1991399 Potash Mine Capacity 13,950 13,750 13,810 13,860 14,160 14,160 14.160 Potash Mine Supply Capability 11,979 11,958 11.840 11.908 12.148 12.148 12,164 Technical Potash Production 550 650 650 650 650 650 650 Potash Fert SupplyPotential 11,185 11,060 10,945 11,010 11,238 11,238 11,254 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 6,900 7,150 7,150 7,250 7,350 7,450 7.550 Surplus (-Deficit) 4.235 3,910 3,795 3,760 3,888 3,788 3,704 North Ameica 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996)97 1997198 1998199 Potash Mine Capacity 13,760 13,410 13,470 13,470 13,470 13,470 13,470 PotashMineSupplyCapability 11,827 11,686 11.568 11,596 11.596 11,596 11,612 Technical Potash Production 550 650 650 650 650 650 650 Potash Fert Supply Potential 11,041 10,862 10,666 10,714 10,714 10,714 10,730 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 4,946 5,050 5.000 5,050 5,100 5,150 5,200 Surplus (-Decit) 6,095 5,752 5,686 5,664 5,614 5,564 S,530 Central America 1992193 1993194 1994196 1995V96 1996197 199'98 1993199 PotashMine Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PotashMine Supply Capabilty 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Technical Potash Produclion 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Fert Supply Potential 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 281 300 32D 340 360 380 400 Surplus (-Deficit) (231) (300) (320) (340) (360) (380) (400) The Ferilizer Working Group - 47 - June 1994 WORLD AND REGIONAL POTASH SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS K20) South America 1992193 1993194 1994/96 1996/96 1996197 1997198 1998199 Potash Mine Capacity 190 340 340 390 690 690 690 Potash Mine Supply Capability 152 272 272 312 552 552 552 Technkial Potash Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Fert. Supply Potential 144 258 258 296 524 524 524 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 1,673 1,800 1.830 1,860 1l890 1,920 1.950 Surplus (-Deficit) (1,529) (1,542) (1.572) (1,564) (1,366) (1,396) (1.426) ASIA 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995/96 1996197 1997/98 1993/99 Potash Mine Capacity 2.390 2.390 2.390 2.630 2.630 2.630 2.630 Potash Mine Supply Capability 2,297 2,312 2.444 2.575 2.579 2.579 2.579 Technical Potash Production 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 Potash Fert. Supply Potential 2,156 2.170 2.296 2,420 2.424 2,424 2,424 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 5,136 4,975 5.330 5.385 5.690 5,995 6.300 Surplus (-Deficit) (2,980) (2,806) (3,034) (2,965) (3,266) (3,571) (3,876) West Asia 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 Potash Mine Capacity 2,220 2,220 2.220 2,460 2,460 2.460 2,460 Potash Mine Supply Capability 2,220 2,220 2,340 2,460 2,460 2,460 2,460 Technical Potash Production 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Potash Fert. Supply Potenbal 2,094 2,094 2,208 2.322 2.322 2.322 2,322 PotashFertilizerConsumption 168 175 180 185 190 195 200 Surplus (-Deficit) 1,926 1,319 2,028 2,137 2132 2,127 2,122 South Asia 1992193 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 PotashMine Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Mine Supply Capability 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Technical Potash Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Fert. Supply Potential 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 1,038 1,100 1,150 1.200 1,300 1,400 1,500 Surplus (-Deficit) (1,038) (1,100) (1,160) (1,200) (1,300) (1,400) (1.t00) East Asia 1992193 1993J94 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998399 Potash Mine Capacity 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 PotashMineSupplyCapability 77 92 104 115 119 119 119 TechnicalPotashProduction 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 PotashFert SupplyPotential 62 76 88 98 102 102 102 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 3,930 3,700 4,000 4,000 4,200 4,400 4,600 Surplus (-Deficit) (3,868) (3,624) (3,912) (3.902) (4,098) (4,298) (4,498) The Fertilzer Working Group - 48 - June 1994 WORLD AND REGIONAL POTASH SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES 1000 TONS K20) EUROPE 1992193 1993114 1994/96 199S19S 1996197 1997199 1998199 Potash Mine Capacity 7.800 7,800 7.050 6,600 6.600 6.600 6,600 Potash Mine Supply Capability 6.841 6,658 6.551 6,200 6,205 6.205 6,205 Technical Potash Production 350 400 400 400 400 400 400 Potash Fed. Supply Potential 6.354 6,124 6,020 5,676 5.681 5.681 5.681 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 4.633 4.560 4.440 4,430 4,440 4,450 4,500 Surplus (-Deficit) 1,721 1,664 1,680 1,246 1,241 1,231 1.181 East Europe 1992193 1993194 1994/96 1995196 1996/97 1997198 1998/99 Potash Mine Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Mine Supply Capability 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Technical Potash Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Fert. Supply Potentlal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Fertilzer Consumption 519 530 570 620 680 740 800 Surplus (-Deficit) (519) (530) (570) (620) (680) (740) (800) West Europe 1992193 1993194 1994/96 1996196 1996197 1997198 199819 Potash Mine Capacity 7.800 7.800 7.050 6,600 6.600 6,600 6,600 Potash Mine Supply Capability 6.841 6.658 6.551 6.200 6.205 6.205 6,205 Technical Potash Proaucfion 350 400 400 400 400 400 400 Potash Fert. Supply Potential 6.354 6,124 6.020 5.676 5.681 5,681 5,681 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 4,114 4.030 3.870 3,810 3.760 3,710 3,700 Surplus (-Deficit) 2,240 2,094 2,150 1,866 1,921 1,971 1,981 FSU 1992193 1993194 1994/96 1995/96 1996197 1997198 1998199 Potash Mine Capacity 12,380 12.380 12.380 12,380 12.380 12,380 12.380 Potash Mine Supply Capability 6,393 5,776 5.954 6,125 6.187 6,229 6,940 Technical Potash Production 70 90 110 130 150 150 150 Potash Fert. Supply Potential 5,684 5,109 5,248 5,383 5,418 5,456 6,096 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 3,234 1,600 1,600 1,700 1.850 2050 2,300 Surplus (-Deficit) 2,450 3,509 3,648 3,683 3,568 3,406 3,796 OCEANIA 1992193 1993/94 1994/95 1996196 1996/97 1997198 1998399 Potash Mine Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Mine Supply Capability 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Technical Potash Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Fert. Supply Potential 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Potash Fertilizer Consumption 285 300 310 320 330 340 350 Surplus (-Deficit) (285) (300) 1310) (320) (330) (340) (360) Rii('IiI- 4 W(lWII .1) HAN TI I11: INI( >\I . I' 1l'I .EN tiilutsili N.h'. 21 S NIt 'nIII, 'litt Ir, Bilbl! aN t'ixt., a/l-/I atuai I, 'Il,ess It lt11 ),-I .AtI . II:'tr il U 4t I lti a I vearissl/'tr l'i'r Nat. 211 Civtt .lv., All iplslii R tad ll 'ralil a J ti ii l U' It'dto f/ia' fI ,', fa, 'hlri, il a'/ III Il/ill I. Ill,'I tI I- l.',,i, jillI I',lit, ,, ( ja1f:41i1s Na'. 2211 KRai gsl'v. Ftigt iI an. IIi t)t 'a' .1. I Li I)ii ia* I IIII A, tI. II i/ l t I ; i' usua's ta L t it is: .1:: Ni. 221 Srlvtamo . ..a, I . till-Il. I%gla"I. I l.S aIaI Sttilt'w.ss 5 ilf)r 15k,'aIj .rr anal / riful:ft, iss tin' Wa IrJ Sas£i.mnaIll I )rt; s rlin'i'u Nta. 222 St'lvaratnani. /,s Itmit,tlis-aut rws I lis.gIswi I dlticzaso .":ss'l u aIN l'' t II/I all'(I;'t'lilsf Ilg Noi. 221 Plot ra,n I, 1 ntn1111.1ri. I{i,anl . 'll , till. Ilia d tI/.ara'. "t iltli'a\s' t,v I gslt 'iirusussisg 4m , l'toIm'l N.a. 224 i jidglt'V.111l slit Iis; ltsl .sas .v I)I Ia trailpurill. u:lde t 'r fill 1pi'Ut, N.o. 225 I )I.I A ;Ajiittllti', .llit-l, lla Ilfl ( '` SNt o,I I' r arilssi !iila stlarailS lAlI.a Noi. 226 BIiIld 1 Ii v'lnsa Evell n, ai . t 1tb-tihtolit. I U11idatwil *tf I ;'I 1V 1bh a)11 1 111s: 'lii) if? 1bas1kissll I 1i.. No. 227 ook, 'd i t,ir lailnuilatni Resst Im- lr'is,'n llt ui .1 i 'eI I I, PapeaT' er ,il l aS / au tern :O ' l 'o s / I M r.lMIOI sm ! U1sia) Sefirt tla'lsn t.sy'ws in .'Ifrca No. 22S Wt'bste r . n d C'harap, 1It Isa' 1 si'rPi'hra a all' lte 'rt aaA hiitit-tiss s tIS 'it ' is, .4 '1si rpi't F irtis No. 24 Wi'elbst r, Ilke Iteivi'r*il lt 'of 1 Pr la' fet,rl InimItietu ig in lisisalri .-I . i, a 'f . 1! I: ris:i Noi. 231) Wtabster anif Swanson, lise I yin're la .af ie ' rI Pr ele S,e.Ir AlamufiaCtitrlns its 1tl/ I orsir,'r ( -zealc allI s Slalala. JI''eral Republic: A sirrevi nfl its' Nt. 231 I-isa Ba rghouthi, G lIha rn.n tind Al -Salt x iv.at fa'nCl Prdaci onariv i p'. '-lr ari/ Iw).'a it, 20 0ttIA A It;ollal 0£?r" iew Nto. 232 Crt'ig%tncv, Tranuisspoart ad Itan a o iio e j Perfr ' arnc,saw. A S1;ji rw auf Io . )i'r llax s.g 1 n No. 233 Frer ieriksen. l3crkoff, and T3arhi'r, Pr in c/les ands! fractiesas /tia, It g w'tl Wllesr RIVl 'ziK t rd n-s 1Stise; No. 234 Archorndo-Callac and FaL', IMsrnstfn V, e 'incle );acra£trng Cv.tj's No. 2359 Claetsstns. Risk Manag,i'nenl IIs /)l i'lopuisg Cioaritnrsa No. 236 Bennett and Goldberg, Prnoidlipig IFsftrprime I)eliptnif atsnd I i/isavi-il S'rrisc¶Ce aia WVom'Is: .1 /e'caia (if Bat7ik lExpterie' e ill Asia; No. 237 Webster, Thle' 1trergi'szcr iaf l'Pri fte Secto nr Mants utact u rilSg in t1'. 'land: A Surcr.u of 1-irplss No. 238 1 iea th, Lausd Rights ini Cteale 'lrsre: Ssrteat aunl dfProz.pets ior Project Intaerv'etiosfsns Nt). 239 Kirmani and Rangelev, lit erisiitistnral Innitdni Wafers: CotILplV s fira Alitre Ai-tAre lVnrldl Usank Role No. 24(1 Ahmed, Retneawable Eneiy 1ecilh ologics: :A Rersiewaf tIlih' Sta its sinai Cost iafSel'cte'd T'l l'/hnliozi's Noi. 241 Cernea and Adams. D elop inre cit. SocsologXy, and Anthroptoltgy: Ass Aninotatiel Bibllsographyl of IV.rlt Rantk Publications atitt foloanteile s itn Sociology atsti A lishropologyf No. 242 Barnes, Openshaw, Smith, and van der I'las, WIna! Maskes People (Caaaok wiilh Inprianeid Biiomsts Slores?: A Comparatnl i nr terunationial Rec'iew of So vPlnograms Nt). 243 Menke and Fazzari, Imnsproain IElectric P oser lftilitv E Vfficiencly: IsslIS asilt RZi'Tstnmtedsi lions Noa. 244 L.iebenthal, Mathur, and Wade, Solar E'incrgy: l'ssons fraain th I'acifit Islatnll El.x;Ari'rs ce No. 245 Klein, Ex'ernal Debt Managemient:An Infrod strfiion No. 246 Plusquellec, Burt, and Wolter, Modlrin Wi ter Control iii IrriXatrion: Concepts. Issues, and ApIlicat ions No. 247 Ameur, Agricltltseral Extensionl: A Step lethaonad flit Next Sfiy No. 248 Mal hotra, A Sinrtey of Asia's EIt ergy Prices No. 249 Le Moigne, Easter, Ochs, and Giltner, Water Policy asti) Water Mark-et.s: S.I'cted Papers andl Proceedingsfrom tse World Bank's A inual Irrigafion anid Drainage Sanuisar, Annapolis. AIarYlaned, December 8-10, 7992 No. 250 Rangeley, Thiam, Andersen, and Lyle, lis erriationtial River Basin Organizations in Sieb-Saharanr Africa No. 251 Sharma, Rietbergen. Heirmo, and Patel, A Strategywfir tf/e Fortst Sector in Sstb-Salaran Africa TIhe World lHank lnadqu.rlerF I twpt*.a11 Oilt II kVo t) II ha' I I - 2:1.1 1l I A A 'I lb I'.:' 1. I . I I %larim i. I: a * I11i.e _- 111iod. 1,11. IAL k.. lix:. 1.11-ban F1ts imi 111 I-I f,1'I Ill l.tif1 :1116I 1O11 i'1) 2I*I 51111_ I Hi I I -I S-12 In 'I11 i. ih) Rct x '-4S-IM 1 %v wi I lw F I' lt (t.ihI Allddri '% I\I Ill : x1_ IA I'III\i.I' 'N!b 'S0 Cover design by Walton Rosenquist ISBN 0-8213-2831%