RESTRICTED I V 1flDV AW17 AILL VNI I Vol. 2 They;do not accept responsibility for, it;s accuracy or comipletienesis. wThe report may . I- a - I ta L - -* L - !- I noT be published nor may it be quored as representing their viewS. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION rTM lfTn I.DnrTTT-T ANTT TDVn(ZC1Tr OF THE IVORY COAST (summary and four volumes) VOLUME I MAIN REPORT Tw1. s A 1ep afrt J u.1y C.11 , A 7 1 LI Western Africa Department CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (a) Until August 11, 1969 us$ 1.00 = CFAF 246.85 French Franc 1.00 = CFAF 50.00 (b) After August 11, 1969 us$ 1.00 = CFAF 277.71 French Franc 1.00 = CFAF 50.0o This report is based on the findings of a mission which visited the ivory Coast in November-necember 1060 and n vrther infnmation nb- tained during discussions of the draft report with the Ivory Coast A i4 Mn,r 1 07r) "A QJ V -, ULU -11 .J £LAA I ' I '-* The mission consisted of: L. de Azcarate (IBRD) Chief 11. . U C.A. n -.LULUJ 'j O1U 'illo s R. Bishop (IBRD/FAO) Agricultural Economist L. 1:gl.L (_LIRD/FAO) Agronomist Ph., Laville (Consultant) Industrial Economist U. Muluer oLnsuILalu) Uruu UeveLupmenU opcULa.li- G. Fossi (IBRD) Planning advisor This report consists of: Summary Report Volume I - Main Report Volume HI - Agricultural Development Volume III - Industrial Development Volume IV - Population Growth and Urban Development  TVORY COAST BASIC DATA Area: 125,000 square miles Population (1968 estimates): 4.7 million Density 38 per square mile rat 4.-e ofP groxwth / 10-I"A;- ;- .8 V&~WdUL \k;%P U.LuLIIIJ/aL -ULIC0 3 % .-±1%,L UU -Lll.1 A 4ILLIAJL 0. U.L.'.AL o.~L.L U±..0..A. 0 UCL UIAO~ iD-A~ L 1 L LL%,V 'M r oU i7VV~ Uross LU1i U-L_±2~ A~.U1W.~ U -L.A.~ -~~~' nC. r%-----~ I~.. n4 -I CFAF billion 140.7 236.8 257.3 27. 326.,5 U-4. M, l r',f n nf , -, rd " in ^ nz.) ^n n ^Lz, ^ in UO) m1.l±ul c. v U co,I-U.o Jo5 rate of growth /1.8 (per annum) per n-ead CFA francs 37,700 55,100 58,100 60,200 69,500 In , prce / 1.00 Ip14 e 37 440 rate of growth ________________7.6 (per annum) estimated average rise in prices __ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _j__ __ _ _ _ _ _ . .%; (per annum) Structure of GDP at market prices (1966): Drigin Percent Uses Percent Agriculture and fishing 25.6 Private consumption 60.0 Forestry 5.4 (non marketed) (12.2) Manufacturing 7.8 Public consumption 14.1 Power and Mining 4.1 Gross domestic investment 1.) Construction 5.5 Exports (goods & n.f. Manual trades 2.4 services) 35.4 Transport 7.7 less imports (goods & n.f. Conmerce 26..o services) - 28.8 Other services 6.4 Government 9.1 100.0 100.0 - 11 - Central Government Finance (CFAF billion) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 (estimates) Total Government revenue 4o. - 2 .u- >1. on. 2 4 (1.3 o. 4 Total current expenditure -34.0 -39.2 -L1.7 -50.5 -52.0 -57.0 Current 5uiplus T-T4 11 --.8 9.Y5 L719.3 Government debt service - s5 - 4.6 - .y - 5., - .4 - 8.6 Government investment expenditure -12.7 -17.7 -171- -24.3 -27.2 -44.1 Total deficit (-} - 3.0 -10.5 -12.5 -16.3 -13.3 -29.3 Balance of payments (CFAF billion) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 (provisional) Exports 70.5 80.2 83.3 110.0 imports -62.8 -68.5 -73.4 -84.2 Trade balance 7.7 11.7 9 . 30.0 Net non factor services - 2.7 - 5.9 - 6.4 - 7.3 - 8.0 Net factor income payments - 6.6 - 8.4 - 8.8 - 9.5 -10.0 Net private transfers - 7.5 - 8.7 - 8.9 - 9.2 - 9. Current balance - 9.1 -11.3 -14.2 0.2 2.5 Net public transfers 5.4 4.8 3.6 3.8 4.5 Net private capital 3.1 3.1 3.0 1.9 4.5 Net public capital 3.3 0.6 0.1 4.7 - O Total net capital & public transfers 11.8 8.5 6.7 10.4 4.0 External Trade Relationship to large custons area: Member /f the West African Customs Union , Associate Member of the EEC. 1965 1966 1967 1968 Exports of goods and n.f. services: % GDP 32.6 32.2 32.5 35.4 Imports of goods and n.f. services: I GDP 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.8 Concentration of exports (1) coffee, cocoa, timber 81 81 76 77 1 West African Economic Community since May 1970. - iii - International Reserves (Net foreigh assets imputed within the West African Monetary Union) 1965 1966 1967 1968 2969 1970 /1 Total (US$ million) 63.4 77.2 58.5 90.5 102.0 125.0 Months' imports of goods 3.0 2.7 3.7 2.8 3.0 n.a. IMF position (US$ million) Quota 15.0 16.0 17.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 SDRs - - - - - 3.0 Drawings - - - - - - External Public Debt August 14, 196S Total debt outstanding (US$ million) including undisbursed 2 342.8 disbursed only n.a. Major sources of foreign financial assistance 1964-69 (CFAF billion) ($: million) Comd tmnent8 - from France 52.4 210.0 of which grants and technical assistance 17.0 700 - from Euronean Development Fund (En) 14.1 57-n of which grants 11.2 4O.5 1 January. 2 Includes debt payable in French Francs and CFA Francs which are converted at the exchange rate af+er +.he devaluation of A+gust 1969, i.e. US$1 = CFAF 277.71. The previous rate was US$1 = CFAF 246.85.  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. PART ONE: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 1960 I. GENERA FACTORS ..................@.................. 2 A. Natural Resources .............................. 2 B. Political Stability ......... .............. 4 C. Population and Labor Supply .................. 4 II. RATES AND PATTERNS OF GROWT ......................... 7 A. General .... ............ . ....... ............ 7 B. Pattern of Growth: Suppv ....................... 8 C. Pattern of Growth - Demand ....................... 9 III. FINANCIAL ASPECTS OF GROWTH ............................ 14 A- Ssivings and Investmnent.................. ~........ 14 -fliot o Saiigs-------------------~-----------6 -Origin and Composition of Gross Investment ...... 17 B. External Trade and Payments ...................... 18 -'lmports .. . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . .. 20 -Exports ........................................ 21 -Terms of Trade .......... .................. ......23 ..Pplw~t- Nnn-rradp- Plnm..------------------- -Private Capital ......................... ... 24 -Ptb14c Tirnsfers2 an C^ apit - External Debt Service ......................... 25 C. Money, Prices and Wages .......................... 26 1. Monetary Developments ....................... 26 -Institutions .............................. 26 ~Mnetarj Survey .................. ... 28 -Interest Rates .................... 29 2. Prices and Wages . ....... ............ 31  Page No. D. Public Finance and the Mobilization of Capital Resources for the Public Sector ...... . ... ......... 33 1. General , ...... * ............ . ...... 33 -Revenue Structure ............. .** ... .. *.. 35 -Government Current Expenditures ........... 37 2. Mobilizing Capital Resources for the Public Sector ................ ......... 39 -Public Savings .............. .............. 40 -Internal Borrowing .4......... ..... 43 -External Aid and External Borrowing ......... 44 IV. DEVELOPMENT POLICIES ....................................... 49 A. General Planning ............................. ... 49 B. Agricultural Policies ...................... .....51 C. Industrial Policy ..................... . ... 55 V. "'GROWTH" AND "DEVELOPMENT" .................... 57 A. Incomes .a......s.................................o. 57 B. Problems in Education ........0........ ......... 58 C. Problems in Public Health .............................. 59 D. Urbanization and Urban Unemployment .............. 60 DAs *LTW. DCS. ECTS T )f%DD71TA'TTa TDVIVTC AC nV1PVDMTMAmrc ni DnuDecCA . IU L J A f JWX A W&l . ULUanat.LU ...**** ****....... *..**.***** 0 C. AgricuLtural 14UU HU rUoUrLaVLy ********.*..... UU D. Overall Future Growth ........................... 67 Page No. II. INVESTMENT PROGRAMS FOR 1971-1975 ............... ... 69 A. Financing of Public Investment ...... 70 -Budgetary Savings .. .............. 71 -Other Public Savings ............................ 73 -Internal Public Borrowing ....................... 75 -Total Internal Resources ... ......... 75 -External Financing of Public Investment ......... 76 -Composition of the Government Program for 1971-75 .................... 78 B. Private Savings and Investments .................. 84 C. Balance of Payments Prospects .................... 87 -Exports ............................................ 88 -Imports ......................................... 90 -Services ............. ............... .* ... 91 -External Aid and Private Canital ... .aveo 92 T)_ GepnerAl rn1nrp1ii%znn%z for- Evternal A4d *#o 94 o6sa IVORY COAST Mop La P- 6-' Soqbein- 6 bb J I a M ME197I BR - 132R ø, e r - ' '~Jengourn?b%u w, %1 ik b Gran LohGurand- M-ss.h.. GUI E,/IFsa pBn -ELEVATIONS IN METERS Len th.. 50 50-200 200-400 M-re th.. 400 JUNE 1970 IBRD 1 132R]  1. This report examines the past economic growth and prospects of the Ivory Coast, both in broad perspective and by main sectors. While focusing primarily on the evaluation of the economy since 1965 and on prospective developments in the first half of the seventies it also includes a more general review of economic trends since 1960 and some projections extending as far as 1980. 2. The annexed volumes analyze past and projected developments in the sectors of Agriculture (Volume II), Industry (Volume III), and Urbanism (Volume IV). PART ONE - ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 1960 3. The happy combination of factors behind the successful economic story of the Ivory Coast is often called a "miracle" or a matter of "luck." But consistently good luck is improbable and the concept of miracle lacks explanatory value. In analyzing the real causes of past economic growth it is difficult always to separate the effects of exo9enous factors from those of policy decisions. Weather excepted, there are few areas in which Government action has not plaved an important part. not least of all by maintaining a climate favorable to economic incentives. It would be unrealis- tic however to attribute the economic progress that has been achieved entire- ly to deliberate policies of the Government. Natural resources, political stability, an abundant sunnlv of labor the availAbilitv nf rnpirAl n relatively soft terms and favorable conditions in export markets are among the main factors that have undoubtedly contrIbutdA a great dal and have greatly facilitated Government development policies. In several respects, however, the annial asnects nf iraid arnwth nfan nffer a las aor4.fae-onry picture than the rates of increase in the economic aggregates would lead to think. 4. Section (1) of the renort discusses the main surrnitdina fActrs. conditioning economic growth - natural resources, political stability, ponulation and labor! section (II) analv2pm the vvnwth nf rn'P and the nacnm- panying structural changes; section (III) is devoted to the broad financial aVrt) nf arewwrh* ie-rinn (TV" asmmil iolenmant- oppoedtm"d aeve lop MV "growth" as OPPOsed to "development". I. GENERAL FACTORS A. Natural Resources 5. From the point of view of agriculture ivory Coast is of course much better endowed than countries further north and in some respects better also than other coastal regions in Africa. About one half of the country consists of the hot humid Guinean forest; average annual temperature is 260C or 270C with only about 60C annual variation; rainfall is 1,400-2,000 mm in two rainy seasons - May to July and September to October. The remaining area of the country is largely a savannah zone, becoming progressively drier from south to north, and is covered by scrub and savannah grasses in the north. Average temperature is again 260C but annual variation reaches 200C. Rainfall is still high, averaging 1,100 mm per year in a single rainy season from May to October. In general, the Ivory Coast has a regular topography, rising gradually from the sea in the south to about 500 m in the north. 6. The soils of the Ivory Coast vary from the deep, heavily leached ferralitic soils and ferrisoils of the forest zone to the shallower poorer sandy soils of the savannah. The forest soils respond well to fertilizers but when they are cultivated the main problem is to maintain an organic content. The soils of the savannah often have lateritic accumulations (lumps and large thick pans) just below the surface. These lateritic accumulations scarcely hamper traditional cultivation, but they make mecha- nical cultivation expensive and sometimes impossible. Mechanical cultivation of the savannah tends to compact the soils, to render them less permeable, and to increase erosion. 7. From an agricultural point of view the Ivory Coast can be con- sidered as falling into two main regions: the south, where the natural vegetation is tropical forest, and the north, with savannah grass-land. There are, of course, transitional areas between these two main regions. In the south conditions are favorable for most tropical perennial planta- tions as well as annual food crops such as yams, plantains, cocoyams and cassava, and upland rice. In the north, except under special conditions. perennial crops cannot be grown, but considerable potentialities exist not only for food crops such as yams, maize. sorghum. and millet,. but also for commercial crops like cotton, rice and groundnuts. However, on the basis of a similar primitive level of technology in the traditional sectors where roughly the only input is labor, agriculture in the south gives a much higher farm family income than in the north. This is partly because the income per ha is much higher from the perennial tree crops than from the annual crops. and partly because once the heavy and arduous tasks of opening up the forest and planting the perennial crops have been achieved, the labor requirements for these crops are much lower than for the annual crops, thus permitting a farm family generally to cultivate a larger hnldina. - 3 - 8. There is on the average a low level of land utilization. As recently as 1963 only about 1/4 of the land which could be used for agr:L- culture was actually being cultivated. Food crop production - even includ- ine the large areas under fallow each year - took up only 22 percent of the agriculturally useable land and all the cash crops only another 6 per- cent. However, there are considerable variations between regions and even where there is a favorable man/land ratio it is not safe to conclude that there is land still available for agricultural expansion. In the north. limitations are set by the present level of agricultural technology, with a norm of about one family to 2 ha of croo land. As the overall population density is low, this ,leaves large areas of unoccupied but potentially cultivable land on condition that a satisfactory aaricultural system can be devised. In the southeast the available land is not yet fully utilized but the inhabitantst of this ara arm bamina nonnarnou of notential short- ages and are therefore tending more and more to put obstacles in the way of allocating land to new nAttlers. Tt in nnlv in th annuthweast that there are really large reserves of land suitable for agriculture. 9. The rivers are generally not navigable for bulk transporters. They offor nme nntanktisal fnr hydnalatvi- amnarntinn and half a dn7Pn sites representing a virtual capacity of some 3 billion KWH have been inwantiatad An thi Raindamn Raff4n, rnlw and ComA r4.ver haidA thna- already in use at Ayame (Comoe) or under construction at Kossou (Bandama). it is generally admitted, however tjhaf na4--"al ^-rA4 -4ina r^ijA nt nm very cheap power to be produced from these sources, as in Akosombo (Ghana) -r exa.mple. i. 1~ .3 IJ -1&. C. J.AV * ALA. LCWU&L.= LLOVW %AJLLLJLLUULeU L.LL.L eU LL LU farto LUecov development. Manganese production from the mine at Grand Lahou near &U&uJAJ u&4 LA@O PWWWWU UceALasUs COLAJ LA AIVe KEVUULU.L U.L U.LRWWH is small and stable. Mineral research has been active in the last few years. Tserea asOLm yet iucuunluve inuiCemetions u mUanUInAc LAuFFW, gold and petroleum (off-shore). An iron deposit near Bangolo (Center- U-as1 4. Lada V...Am C__ Ja.Tt-- L - A---J--- - - a 11I WA.IA Ve-ing consideredW &W&D %AWVW&WUWLL UY a LA lU=L.L%;L& %.JWUk#O&&Y : j 0 despite its low metal content (38-42 percent), because it is very Ag \Yf V AALAL . u MMU WVV UA&..L.WU A&A U=CFWL L CAAUACLOLI conditions are physically favorable and the iron could easily be enriched La on ude cultivation 119 not, except iu iunusmalu esaes, producing the highest possible yields. There is also considerable land avai..u.Le L expansuin Ou a-6gri%;ALLua. jJKOUUU.LUL1 LOLkaUJy Lt LALM SUULL west, though timber resources in areas already oeing exploited are being 1] See Volume III. Industrial Development. exhausted of their most valuable species and land for industrial estates in the southeast is becominE scarce. There are untapped resources Darti- cularly for hydroelectric power and for minerals. But proportionately larver canital resources than in the past will be needed for the development of new areas and for the exploitation of power and minerals, and it is likely, though it is difficult to aeneralize, that the return on canital invested in such resources will be lower than during past phases of the country's dAvelonment. A- Pnlitirnl qtnhilitv 1? Tn Augst 107(- fhe Tunry Cnant will rplahrate fan vaare nf independence under the same leadership and very much the same Government s trucnn The oarning rl h ka bn one of "a1nl 14hnvol4am - a combination of strong centralization of powers in a president reinforced ~ a nana *n n,a ta.n nti fvrna-- ^f a.vnrac4a af -ft. 4 f-4 - -An t,.4 n the U, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - -- . -- -, a S a 0 a .. . y a . W -11a . . system, without coercion. In the economic sphere liberalism has meant ent-reprneua.., flreedom, - favmorabe 4n0 4a ae. a-4a 4f and few physical controls. Nevertheless Government has intervened in a 4nf4an- way hy rnull atcno nov4-ulturn? ion .arrv4 one enha.nt41al public investments, and setting overall targets through development planning. 13. Continuity in policy has been perhaps as important as the kind ao al4c allawedA T1 kas permied nAh-arana to long ranea s4ac4...s and a continuity of economic management, as exemplified by the agricultural tAt VCLOLU4t4cbL4 e 0 m e s A *41 a1m C. es fs , 4 m . T-- 4# of course at the root of the confidence that foreign and domestic investors hav inI .4e T-,Fr C.4ost, .Lt lAWALns, hWWVeL, do GADe L MLED 4LL SULWC MULVW F4LL&A..LALUX in shaping decisions, mainly from the youth, is mounting. The President Las recoguizeu hsu an duang tlnAt lst muut uL L7VY 11 Uugasu L&I a series of "dialogue" sessions with representatives from all sections of the comUnitHLy. VNe LU- firDtucoume u hs was a waveLumon1 oununLe WLILL took place in January 1970. While this did not affect the principal economic posts of the cabinet it did include in the Government a number of new young ministers with good technical qualifications. C. Population and Labor Supply 15. Information on population is unfortunately rather poor, in parti- cular as regards the number and movements or migrants. The beat figures are for 1965 and are summarized in the following table together with estimates for 1970. -5- Population 1965 % 1970 % 1. Permanent residents (million) 4.00 4.63 2. Temoorary residents " 0.30 0.35 3. Total " 4.30 4.98 4. Birth rate (per thousand) 49.5 50.0 5. Death rate to 2R-1 6. Natural growth rate " 27 250 7. Yrrmrarion Inet)1 40000 n 30,000 n n n 8. Resident population born mhi-nnd 11 n.a. 9. Rural population (million) 3.30 82 3.55 71 i0. Urban/a n/von%v 4n (m44n1 0 78 18 1i.A 0 Source: 1965 Ministere du Plan, Population 1965 (July 1967); 1970: estimates. /a Centers of more than 10,000 inhabitants. Labor Supply 16. There is little doubt that past expansion of production owes much to the easy availability of labor. While reliable statistics on the develop- ment of the active population and on the labor market are largely lacking, ample labor seems to have been available, at least until the very recent past, for the rapid development of perennial crops and timber output in the forest zone. However, certain categories of occupations have always been difficult to fill, especially in industry. 17. Substantial and increasing quantities of labor have been required for the expansion and upkeep of cocoa and coffee plantations, new plantings of at least 100,000 hectares of oil palms, coconuts, pineapples, banana and rubber trees, the Rrowth in production of rice and the expansion of tinber output. Except in a few cases such as mechanized timber extraction and land clearing for palm and other plantations, operations in aericulture have remained heavily dependent on labor inputs. This explains the develop- ment of wage labor in agriculture. In 1965. there were 265-000 known wage earners in agriculture, or 16 percent of the estimated rural population of working age. includina women. Of these workers. 75 percent were foreign Africans, mostly Voltaics. The proportion of wage earners in agriculture is high by West African standards and the volume of wage labor has certainly increased in the recent years. An estimate of the total labor input in agriculture for 1965 1/ (expressed in man-days) shows that 13 percent came from wage labor. 18. The ivory Coast has also been aided by the availability of a considerable supply of skilled foreign personnel, particularly from France. Among wage and salary earners in all sectors, excluding the central gov- ernment, European expatriates occupied, in 1965, 84 percent of the positions in categories 1-2 (of 8 categories) and 58 percent of category 3. At the other extreme foreign Africans occupied 65 percent of the jobs in cate- gory 8. Within public administration of course, ivorians are predominant (92 percent in 1965) but foreign technical assistants are important in some fields, especially education (16 percent - a proportion much higher in secondary and higher education), and in most departments as technical advisers, especially in the Planning Ministry. 19. Together with immigration from abroad there has been a continuous, though unquantified, movement of population from the northern savannah region into the forest area, that is from the lower into the higher productivity sector of agriculture. Population growth in the South has been twice as fast as in the North. In 1965, the annual net immigration from the North to the South was about 100,000 persons. The main flow, so far, has been to the Southeast. 20. By occupying jobs at the highest levels for which Ivorians have not been available, or at the lowest levels which Ivorians have not been willing to fill, foreign labor has been a decisive factor of economic growth. This is not meant to imply that labor supply has, at all times, been entire- ly adequate. In three ways at least, particularly in recent years, it has not been: there has been a shortage of medium level technicians in practi- cally all sectors, there have been local shortages of both skilled and un- skilled labor in the newly developed plantation areas (oil palm, for example) though at the same time unemployment in the cities has been increasing. 1/ See Ministere du Plan, ote aivoire 1965 - Emplo1, (Uct. 19b) p. 39. -7- II. RATES AND PATTERNS OF GROWTH A. General 21. Economic growth over the period 1960-1968 has been rapid by international standards. It has also been irregular. Gross Domestic Product in current prices was more than 2.2 times larger in 1968 than in 1960, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 10.8 percent. There is no satisfactory "deflator," but consumer prices are estimated to have increased at about 3 percent per year, leaving an annual rate of real growth of 7.6 percent. Lack of reliable data on immigration movements make it difficult to estimate the rate of growth of resident population. On the assumption that it has been between 3 to 3.5 percent annually, GDP per capita must have risen at about 4 percent p.a. in real terms. This compares favorably with rates recorded in other parts of the world and is probably substantially higher than most, if not all, other countries of tropical Africa. As a result. GDP per head approximates $280. or CFAF 68,300, in 1968. 1/ (CFAF billion, current prices) .960 .L96. 196 1963 1964 .L965 1966~ 1967 1968 GDP (at market prices) 140.7 159.3 166.1 195.9 237.1 236.8 257.3 274.4 320.4 Annual percent variation - +13.2 +4.2 +17.9 +21.0 -0.1 +8.6 +6.6 +16.7 /a Revised figure (communicated to the Mission in March 1970): CFAF 326.5 billion, implying an increase that year of 19 percent at current prices. 22. The growth of Gross National Product has been only very slightly slower. Total GNP as conventionally defined and GNP per head have consis- tently remained at about 3 percent below GDP. However, the difference may actually be close to 6 percent if, as may well be justified, net private transfers abroad (i.e. remittances by foreign workers) as well as net factor payments were subtracted from GDP. Aspects of this problem are further examined in the discussion of national savings below (see III.A). 1/ At the exchange rate prevailing before August 1969; at the current rate (1970), per capita GDP in 1968 would be very slightly under $250. 23. Annual variations of GDP (or GNP) have been large. Thus, during the period L7Vo-19u%, GD? grew Uy unarxy 7u percent, but in the ensuing four years, it rose by only 35 percent. However, the lattr.period in- cLuues 11o., tne single year when tnere was absolute stagnation. The pace of growth was most rapid in 1963, 1964 and 1968. Thogh these are changes at current prices, it oes not appear that internal price movements have been an important factor of instability. From partial evidence, it would seem, however, that the rate of inflation has accelerated since 1964. Fragment4ry indications, notably good results of foreign trade point to continued growth in 1969 though probably at a slower rate than in 1968. Prices appear to have risen more rapidly, partly as a result of the devaluation in August 19o9. Growth in 1970 will probably be also satisfactory because of very good crops in 1969/70. B. Pattern of Growth: Supply 24. Although the Ivorian economy is still predominantly rural, the contribution of agriculture to the growth of total product has strikingly declined. The share of the primary sector declined from over 43 percent in 1960 to 36 percent in 1965 and 31 percent in 198. Its contribution to the growth of GDP fell from 27 percent in the 1960-1964 period to 14 per- dent in the following four years. The share of agriculture, however, appears minimized because part of the increase in the agricultural settor accrues via the agricultural price stabilization fund (Caisse de Stabilisation)L/ to the tertiary sector, and because agriculture provides the basis for much of the increased income generated in industrial and commercial activities. Within the agricultural sector, forestry has been by far the fastest grow- ing activity. The secondary sector, which hardly accounted for 20 percent of GDP in 1960, contributed nearly 17 percent of the increase in GDP from 1960 to 1964 and 33 percent in 1964-1968. 25. As in many other developing countries the share of the tertiary sector is very large, representing practically one half of GDP. This re- flects to only a limited extent the Government "contribution" (i.e. public salaries) which, though increasing, was still under 10 percent of GDP in 1968, but is more largely the result of an expansion of commercial activities in their broadest sense. These represented over one-fourth of GDP and contributted 31 percent of the increaie in GDP from 1960 to 1964 and 53 percent of that from 1964 to 1968 (see table 2.6). 26. The relative importance of commerce throughout the period is the result of institutional factors as well as a reflection of the economic structure. First, indirect taxes - i.e. mainly import taxes - have con- §istently represented very close to 50 percent of value added in the com- mercial sector. The important share of foreign trade in the economy 1/ Caisse de Stabilisation et de Soutien des Prix des Productions Agricols (CSSPPA). -9- facilitates the collection of import and export taxes. In 1968, import boaso onu u o sayswasu bsL~ U ad y ank us bu ~ .L.L VCu.L%A WJ. AUFW.0a (34 percent in 1960) while taxes on coffee, cocoa and timber amounted to III- - _ - /14 .8- A&~ pecentIL oJ. preUax CAFULU V0ALUC0 U FCL%;LIALLI AL7VVj* 0CLWL&UP KLVZSCI profit margins are fairly high - about 7.5 percent in 1968 (6 percent in 1960) of the gross value of tuoa martedu production. aurly one-ffth of these "profit margins" was accounted for by the net income which was realie Uy the agricultural price BaILizaIon fund on coffee anU cocoa exports in 1966/67 and 1967/68 and which was equivalent to over 12 percent of the f.o.b. value of such exports. This, in a sense, produces a correla- tive underestimation of the contribution of agriculture to GDP. 27. The contribution of activities other than "government" and commerce do not call for special comment. The share of transportation has remained between 7 and 8 percent and that of other services, includ-- ing rent, between 6 and 7 percent during the 1960-68 period. 28. imports have supplied about one-fifth of total available resources 1/ and over one-fourth of marketed resources 2/ and their con-- tribution to aggregate resources has tended to increase slightly -/. All sectors are to some extent dependent on imports, but this is particularly true of industry. The import-content of manufacturing production remains high - about 80 percent of total inputs of materials - and local intra- industrial sales very small. However, the "import-content" of industrial sales 4/, which have increased 5 times from 1960 to 1968, has diminished from 56 percent to 43 percent as a result of the rapid rate of industrial- ization noted earlier. Imports have greatly increased their share in total (marketed) private and public consumption from 18 percent in 1960 to 20 percent in 1965 and 26 percent in 1968. C. Pattern of Growth - Demand 29. An analysis of the use of resources from 1960 to 1968 shows that (i) the share of private consumption has relatively declined while that of public consumption has risen; (ii) the rate of capital formation has re-- mained about the same since 1965, and (iii) the proportion devoted to exports has continued to be high. 1/ GDP plus imports. 2/ GDP plus imports less subsistence consumption. 3/ The relationship between imports (M) and GDP (Y) for 1960-68 is M - 0.3Y - 1.9; r2 - 0.975. 4/ Measured as the ratio of the c.i.f. value of imported industrial goods over the value of local production "ex-factory" plus imports, all before tax and/or import duties. 30. Private consumption is calculated as a residual and the relevant declined from over 67 percent of GDP in 1960 to 60 percent in 1968. Its annualA U ae of growtn as on tue average A.maA UcAJW rlo UL UL IJUKr UL has still been high by international standards - 11.5 percent from 1960 t0L 9 aHU U6e *CLLH=1L UV=L LAIC LU;LLAUWLLAg LUUL YCAIS. LI ;UrCUL LCLIS it has doubled over the period, representing an increase of about 75 per- cent in real terms or between 40 and 50 percent per capita. While no country in Western Africa has experienced such an increase, average con- snumptiou per head in 1968 was still only %rAr 40UU or $16U. Tne in- crease in the standard of living is evidenced by the fact that the share or marketeU output in L otaL COUUMpLLOn rose from 69 percent in 1ou to 79 percent in 1968, and that the share of food fell from 60 percent in 1960 to 53 percent in 1965 while that of manufactured consumers goods rose from 30 percent to over 37 percent. At the same time, as noted earlier, the relative consumption of imported goods has increased. 1/. 31. Public consumption - has increased both absolutely (by a factor of 3.3) and relatively as a percent of GDP (by 50 percent). While the share of purchases of goods and services in such consumption increased slightly from 37 percent in 1960 to 41 percent in 1968, these public sector purchases accounted for only 4 percent and 6.5 percent of aggre- gate demand in the two years respectively. Public consumption has not been large enough or varied sufficiently to be a significant factor in long run economic growth or in short-term fluctuations of GDP. 32. Gross fixed capital formation increased from 13.6 percent of GDP in 1960 to 18.4 percent in 1965 and has remained at the same relative level up to 1968. Since depreciation of fixed capital is very roughly estimated at one-fourth of gross capital formation, net fixed capital formation must have increased from about 10 percent of GDP in 1960 to about 13-14 percent in 1967 and 1968. These are not the high investment rates often associated with rapid economic growth. They indicate rather low gross capital-output ratios of 1.3 and 2.75 2/ respectively for the two four-year periods 1960-64 and 1964-68 or about 2.0 for the entire 1/ Here defined as purchase of goods and services by Government plus wages and salaries paid by Government. Z/ These are rough approximations which do not take account of the relative variations of prices for capital goods and for GDP in general, of possible lags etc. The order of magnitude is neverthe- less meaningful. - 11 - period. Since more than half of gross investment went into construction, includine housine and infrastructure, where the return on capital is not ordinarily high, the investments in other sectors appear to have vialded a very lraa inrreana in nutnut; also factorn not related to in- vestment have been at play. 33. The apparently favorable capital-output ratio probably indicates that invpement has nnt been n owe-e ,lynnrtant Enoonr in economic growth. In agriculture proper, production has risen primarily in ronnnap tnd nnA nnA tho orvnwi-n eara few mnno inrenmo- 01nt."nt nf such crops as coffee, cocoa, cotton and pineapples has risen more as the eault of gher current #a Inpus, ..A4vV- 1sham 11 h f f4%raA 4T%%,at_ ment. Timber output has been greatly spurred by foreign demand, though lo- extraction has required mo^re 4--l-f-n f-ho", - pr-A,..qJ T" In he primary sector as a whole, production has been greatly facilitated by and forest areas. In manufacturing, investment has up to the present not kOA .. Y.. ---4 GT_J.LA Wd.. LL s A .UIP.14CA %.LL.. L ..JUL.UL . LAA %L& .O sector has been only about 1.6. Finally, the rapidly growing commerce and~ seviceL. sector, tradLitLinal.ly requires~ compar0ative.ly litle.~.L O-V. DAFu uLO mnu CpFJ;=ULZ5 tu nave uen mue AIPULIL"uL Lnau uLLAVnL.- ment in stimulating economic growth. Between 1960 and 1964, exports grew -- - -- - '3z. C1.... __ -- - - 1 a uy 15.7 percent per annum anu coutributCU JU.J pCKLIL LU Lu1e Lua u.-LLI crease in GDP. From 1964 to 1968 their average annual growth rate declined to a percent, Out LwRe pace o overall progress Was aso U±ower auU they contributed 45 percent to the rise in GDP. 2/ Annual variations of exports have been more closely related to movements in Gu than those of any other major aggregate such as gross investment or government purchases of goods and services. Thus, in the years of fastest overall growth - in 1963, 1964 and 1968 - exports contributed 33 percent, 44 percent, and 56 percent to incremental gross domestic product. In 1965, when exports de- clined by 10 percent, GDP declined by 0.1 percent. 35. About 90 percent of exports are composed of raw or semi-proces- sed agricultural products sold on world markets. External demand condi- tions are therefore the major exogenous determinant of the export level. It is not easy to say to what extent the supply of exported goods has been influenced by exogenous factors such as weather and world market 1/ Labor for land clearance should, or course, be regarded as "investnent." 2/ The relationship between GDF(Y) and exports(X) for 1960-68 is Y - 2.7 X + 20; r2 _ 0.91. - 12 - prices, and to what extent by government policies and measures. In apneral- the volume of exnortg of the three main nroductq 1/ han nnt increased as rapidly as their total value since 1962; as is indicated by thpn fnnIIw+inP flvuren! 1962 196A 1964 1965 1Q6 1967 1OAR Vn1lImp indpw Ad4 100 190 1iq 115 1n7 1 17 T^tal "alua inAPv 8 100 133 115 19 127 16a However, 4n 10AR tha utiv Iiaej ae-lfnLad nwing tn A aqrhq±nn#4.1 f.ll 4- the prices of coffee and cocoa which coincided with a slight drop in ,..,n., 4r4es ia a Fir a 1 nr a- - doal4 in - hn wal1.r s exports which largely accounted for the overall stagnation of the economy cocoa and the resulting - not exactly measurable - improvement in the trms V. Lu4 yLo t provyiued a astvg stimuls s w LLum UL LU U and in the years following 1965 (see para. 62). 36. Exports are a dynamic factor not only because of their high sar in grOss dummouSt expeediurue but a'-ov becaunse o tueir multiplieL effect. The gross proceeds of agricultural exports are distributed among many sectors from the producer to the port of loadin, cLUtiUULng LU transport, commerce, processing and, through taxes, to the Government. A1DAD 1.0 dU-Monsratl Le Lah LOL byA DOL fact tUhat esLUhareof i.H the export value of agricultural exports is considerable and has risen from 20pecnti 196 ±0 to L percentUi L191608: Approximate DiStribution of PrUceUs of Export Crops (value in billions of CFAF) 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 (1) Value of export crops at producer level: 32,4 50,0 55,7 52,4 67,4 (2) Value of agricultural exports: 40,7 64,0 70,3 73,1 97,5 (3) Relative share of non-producers: 20% 22% 21% 28% 31% 1/ Computed by IFS with 1963 weights, for coffee, cocoa and timber which represent 75 to 80 percent of total exports. - 13 - Apart from its "vertical" diffusion, the income from agricultural exports has also been distributed among hundreds of thousands of farmers except in the case of forestry where exploitation is in the hands of a few scores of firms. In addition. part of the income of individual farmers and large plantations accrues to wage labor, principally provided by immigrants who number several hundred thousand. A change in the level of exports therefore is bound to have widespread effects on the whole economy. -14 - III. FINANCIAL ASPECTS OF GROWTH W"n eh critial 1 CJ.1- 4n -m a of gerw,%h w.ill 1- anedma Jn JIs iA L.L A.A L A41.ai.al l VA aLw wI W Aspect U 11L WcLU LH terms of (i) the savings-investment accounts, (ii) the external accounts Sn %.L. L pubLiL DcLUL UUac L. The fianLlA pLUUAeUm LhaL 1mVe arisen in these contexts have so far been resolved without undue strain and without an auouin. price ila.-inuu. Ane achievemeut of iLernal anu external financial equilibrium has been possible due partly to external assistance Out principally to tue Ivory Coast's owi efforts. A. Savings and investment 38. Conclusions about the balance or savings ana investment aepena largely on questions of definition. If the external current account defi- cit (or surplus) and national savings are determined exclusive of net private transfers abroad (as implicit in the national accounting system of the Ivory Coast) national savings are found to equal or to slightly exceed gross domestic investment in every year from 1960 to 1968. For most years there was therefore an overall resource surplus of between zero and more than 6 percent on this basis. If, however, private transfers are considered a kind of factor income payment and therefore included in the definition gross investment exceeded national savings, resulting in a resource gap seven years out of nine. 39. With the exception of some minor items (such as scholarships abroad) net private transfers abroad are constituted by.savings .out of wages and salaries of foreign African workers, expatriates working as technical assistants and other non-Ivorians. Not all of these wage tearners remain a full year in the Ivory Coast; some stay for several years icontinuously, and some for only a few months every year. Transfers of ,savings are made either at regular or irregular intervals. It is therefore difficult to decide whether the workers are "domestic factors ,of production" transferring current earnings, or whether zsuch transfers should be classified as capital movements. In any event, ithe existence of a foreign labor force does result in a continuous outflow of funds from current earnings of these workers as a whole. On balance it seems more logical to consider these transfers current payments which must be deducted from domestic savings (i.e. -domestic income less domestic con- sumption). Under this assumption 1/ the difference between national savings and gross domestic investment has developed as follows: j1/ Appendix Table 2.4 gives the calculations on both bases. - 15 - 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1. National savings (CFAF billion) 24.5 23.4 17.3 28.9 46.9 35.7 42.6 41.2 61.6 2. Gross domestic investment (CFAF billion) 20.5 27.4 20.0 30.1 44.9 44.9 52.6 51.4 61.9 3. Resource gap (l)-(2)/a (CFAF blllion) -4.0 +4.0 +2.7 +1.2 -2.0 +9.2 +10.0 +10.2 +0.3 4. Resource gap (1)-(2)/a as per- nent of ntional savings -20 +15 +14 +4 -4 +20 +19 +20 +0.1 5. Resource gap (1-101/ na per- cent of GDP -2.8 +2.5 +1.6 +0.6 +0.8 +3.5 +3.7 +3.7 0 F_ A r.lt, us - i n indicate - ----- 0-kn s '" ' surplus. Source: Table 2.4 40. Over the past nine years a resource gap has been the rule except .n 10Ky w U -a woo a I---- IuyA e Ofu1. anu A n 1zu wu9 :ca inl L.W IMLI~L=&& ~ WCILO CL a5 XJS= DALP..SAD, L.7W'V, A LU 110 when thereLIIL was virtual equilibrium. In two of the "equilibrium" years - 1964 and Juu U Loutu savingE aUnU ivestmun ruse situarply. Lai Lii: y z &g.LuSL exports resulted in larger trade surpluses and greater economic activity, CHW~LOL.g AR LUILII .OL LIVEDLWWHkL DM DOVAl,t$e rLD 0 PLUpULL.LV1 U GDP the resource gap was never very large. It was largest in the three year precding the 198 Uum. Even thIn, thC ivUry ost finced, ex post, 80 percent of its gross domestic investment. On the average, local resources :Ln 1965-196 financed over 85 percent of gross domestic investment, a rather remarkable achievement considering that gross invest- ment was then 70 percent above Its 1960-64 level. Resource gaps which did develop in some sectors of the economy were financed by external capital, public and private, in a way which did not hamper implementation of investment programs. Although shortage of foreign exchange has never been an obstacle, increasing dirficulies In moDilizing sufficient resources - 16 - for investment by the public sector have been experienced in recent years. Origin of Savings 41. A breakdown of savings for households including "individual ent 4 r-- .- ' a r 740 4 -., A n,,l~114, ---I for ne oA Cr Oover.a. ment has been attempted for 1960, 1965-67 and in part for 1968 (see annex .-l al - .. -., shows availaloity1- of saving 'or investment fo ec of these economic units after making appropriate deductions for factor are defined before transfers or factor payments abroad. "National savings" are hCer Uunu as domeUt savings o L'ess facr paymonts ]WES pLiVaL transfers less debt amortization. "Net savings" is the excess (deficit) of unaiual saviugsovver grss invesntu ; I n -- --- -ntse un u1 incu UaLLLILO±1.J~L LJa LLV~0LIUAL~.!!/ cl&zu L. LLi=~ LM:L. L.LLUM;L±Ug capacity or the net financing requirements of each group. 42. Households and individual entrepreneurs have generally accounted for the largest share of total gross savings - 40 to 50 percent. Ineir absolute level doubled between 1960 and 1967 when they exceeded CFAF 26 bollion. They were prubably substantally higher in 1968 when producers income from export crops and forestry increased by CFAF 15 billion or 35 percent over the previous year. As a proportion of domestic income after tax, the savings rate of this group has slowly increased from 9.5 percent in 1960 to 12.4 percent in 1967, or from 13.5 percent to 15 percent of monetary income only. Transfers abroad out of wages and salaries have absorbed around 40 percent of gross savings each year, and over half has been used for investment, leaving each year a small excess of net savings. This group has thus been a net contributor to the financing or investments by other sections of the economy. 43. As might be expected, gross savings by private and public business firms have fluctuated widely. In 19oo their amount was 3.5 times that in 1960, but in 1967 it dropped by CFAF 10 billion, and then rose again in 1968 to a level probably higher than in 1966. The share of firms in gross savings therefore varied from a low of 28 percent in 1/ The figures for savings and investment of groups of agents are from the appropriation, capital and annex accounts of these agents in the national account system used in Ivory Coast and their total may be slightly different from corresponding items taken from the normalized UN system aggregates shown in the Table para. 39. - 17 - 1967 to a high of 40 percent in 1966. Payments of interest and dividends abroad 1/ have fluctuated much less than gross savings and have therefore reduced these in varying proportion though always by a substantial amount - by 27 percent in 1960 and as much as 53 percent in 1967. Gross invest- ment in 1965-68 averaged CFAF 23 billion annually, more than twice that of its 1960 level. Because there has been a substantial amount of foreign investment in firms, these show an important annual net savings deficit equal to between one third and two thirds of their gross investment. 44. The position of Government is examined in some detail below. Gross savings of Government have been consistently lower than that of either of the other two groups and accounted for about one fifth of the total throughout the period. The level of gross Government investment has been sli2htly above that of households and about half that of firms, including public enterprises, with the exception of the year 1968 when the central overnment became the maior inventor in the economy with CFAF 24 billion or 40 percent of the total. The Government was also a net user of eanital with a shortfall of AvAilable Ravinoq relative to gross investment of 45 percent for the period 1965-68. Origin and Composition of Gross Investment 45. Gross fixed capital formation has increased threefold between 1960 and 19AR frnm CAV 10 tn 59 h1l1inn la tabla 9 11 The most marked increases occurred in 1961 (+25 percent), 1964 (+40 percent) and rates of overall growth. As already noted, the rate of gross and net c-ital formation 'have never been ve-ar 'hih --------4__ n ~ n. 15 percent of GDP in the early sixties and about 18 percent since 1965. 46. In the early stages of independence, in 1960 and 1961, public Au&voo,m a L l A&t.LA%AAL1r LLL LLH PULL CL[LCLU.LUCU, LCPLS H C U VEL %J percent of total investment. In subsequent years, increasing participa- 4.Auss up J9u . .savok no uL \cogo L&UC5=L&V.L%L O A LLL U LM1 uLLCILL 0=LVEL UL housebuilding) caused the share of public investment to decline to 30 percnt o the Govrnen VL&M&aloneLLLJ and L _315 L percent U.L inluin PU1P.8LL firmsU. In the recent past the role of the public sector has again become relative- ly uoe imputmat because unw vop U mVWMu pVCs were unuertak-Cn -iu .uC public sector particularly for regional development (e.g. San Pedro) wAe prvate iuvSMnuL iLIeaCUU more slowLy. inus Vovernmen aU public firms together contributed 40 percent of total fixed capital for- 'I..~ nAC. '7~* .J -... - - - , en^ --- j. - Il%ZC, matiun in 4u7I unu tneir snare may have approxImaLeG JV percent L L7V0. 1/ As a simplifying assumption these are entirely imputed to firms. - 18 - 47. Private investment is made up of quite different components. It includes investment in the traditional sector, such as housing, aq well qn equipment purchased by firms in the modern sector. There are few details on private investment by sub-sector. Investment by modern firmq inprAcel primarily in 1960 and 1965 - -and has since remained at about the 1965 lpvpl - from CFAP 7 billion to -over 17 billion. Ttq nhare in tntnl inves. ment (excluding stocks), which was about 38 percent between 1960 and 1965, hAn Qinrp nrnorA.qivP1v dPelinPd to about 28 nPrrent in 1QR_ 48.The PnmnnQifinn of invPQtTnn by broad cAtegovr of groods has not changed markedly during the growth process. Construction still ac- onvnao fonr tho hulk .nf invPrtme-nt_ nlthniah Qinrp 1Q64 itr. chna hoa dropped from around two thirds of the total to 55 percent.. Within this caegory inweatment in trancnvrmt4on inf-ntrar-tur mn v hinu 7hnua O14"A somewhat, whereas that in urban construction including housing has probably have slowly risen from one fourth to one third of the total., in line with -Lux eve..lo mn o f- - 4-A.~,.-4-1 ."A Mu-,a _U___-n !1~ a. - C - __ %4JM49 . te .ndustO- 1 a nd owe' .. e- mt . *A CfL %~J.L LrLan - port equipment has remained at around 12 percent since 1960. There has p__ h ly h___ c pr. 4',...n.ot,n n this se t as,n n 4 --#--A U., +-u-e -ba. wSJIJOUdJ. *0-f . . . .- 0 ..~Y L.&I "cut throat" competition in freight rates among road carriers. 49. Variations in stocks are only rough approximations. They concern mainly export crops and were most impOrtant in 1966 wn there was a bumper crop of coffee. B. External Trade and Payments 50. The Ivory Coast has an open economy in which foreign trade plays ,a prominent rale. Imports hav! contributed ouU one fourth of total re- -sources and about one third of available resources have been exported. ,Exports actual3.y are equivalent To aroua nadL of GDP after deductions are ,made for that .portion of output such as subsistence and Government services which cannot be traded internationally 11. Imports were CFA 10,UUU per head in 1960, CFAF 15,000 in 1965 and CFAF 18,000 in 1968, and exports CFAF 12,000, 16,000 and 22,000 respectively. It has been noted also that imports were a major component of such aggregates as private consumption and industrial sales, while exports have been fbund to be the main growth force in the economy. Non-merchandise current transaction as well as capital movements are an important element in the external bau.ance repre- senting with variations from year to year, around 20 percent of the value of merchandise trade. .1/ Tradeable GDP is approximately defined as GDP less sUbsistence consump- tion, less construction less Government services less rents. - 19 - General 51. The balance of payments since independence has been characterized first Af all hV An rnid ovnWth nf tntni rnan'tli,a Thp rnnh4npd ntn of exports and imports has increased without interruption, except in 1965, at an average rate nf 11.5 percent pr mh 1QaA nnnu 1QbRw 1R-cnd- -------------a------------------------- ------------------- -------- ------ ly, there has been a trade surplus every year since 1960. Except in 1968, this nvn1us hna nwavarl rVAV in h4114n r.4thn,,,t cht4in anw ani - a-r to increase or decrease 1/. Thirdly, the current balance on goods and ser- vices before tr4. .e -an^fe ^n" cl1ae to et-oorsl4ahektl- nna4t4ve,41 1964, then became increasingly negative, except in 1968 and 1969 when i4 shed,.a. a l argea Tk -- -t U-1 --- --,ar ---i na a Aqa .-A -A-ar a after private transfers has been increasingly negative except for 1968 a..A 1OKO ..a skta An@4a44. *.a ..-4a.11I.. al4-4..a4aA Wa...Fk naF ...LT..4. auu 19607 whenu thu= defiCit was eat lamnae. ruuA. usn #- . transfers (i.e., public grants and technical assistance) have varied cmaately. 14ttle, Letween 11VAV 1 1: -4 C C Ud1 1J-- ..J --anAn. JumpaLaAvGy A.L4L ~ UcwcU *oLr J.-, auLu Je .L.4VUJLL, W.LL& XXU Lnucy to increase, but the net inflow of long-term private and public capital ha fuu eu !AaJr,=Uy. Short-term Capital movements have shown even wider fluctuations. Finally, net foreign assets have increased, with some ups anu duwns, rum CrAr J.o O.LLUIn .9.I MXLLUnJ 11 4oV C. LU CFAF 22.4 ($91 million) at the end of 1968. By that time the Ivory Coast accounted for 55 percent or total net foreign assets held oy the Western African Monetary Union. The following table summarizes the balance of payments for 1960 and for the more recent years. 1/ Provisional estimate for 1969: CFAF 30 billion. 2/ Foreign assets of individual member countries of the West African Monetary Union were not identified before 1962. - 20 - (CFAF billion) 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 (provisional) 1. Exports (goods) 44.4 70.5 80.2 83.3 110.0 2. Imports (goods) -34.1 -62.8 -68.5 -73.4 -84.2 3. Trade balance 10.3 7.7 11.7 9.9 25.8 (30.0) 4. Net non-factor services -4.4 -2.7 -5.9 -6.4 -7.3 (-8.0) 5. Net factor payments -1.8 -6.6 -8.4 -8.9 -9.5 (-10.0) 6. Balance on goods and services 4.1 -1.6 -2.6 -5.4 9.0 (12.0) 7. Net private transfers (-7.6)* -7.5 -8.7 -8.9 -9.2 (-9.5) 8. Current balance (6+7) (-3.5)* -9.1 -11.3 -14.3 -0.2 ( 2.5) 9. Net public transfers ( 3.5)* 5.4 4.8 3.6 3.8 ( 4.5) 10. Net public capital n.a. 3.3 0.6 0.1 4.7 (-5.0) 11. Net private long- term capital n.a. 4.4 0.5 3.1 4.0 ( 4.5) 12. Net short-term capital & mone- tary sector n.a. -4.2 -0.4 6.2 -10.8 (-8.8) * Estimates imports 52. Between 19o0 and 1968 imports of goods rose by 12 percent per year on the average. Their rate of increase was much faster whenever growth of GD accelerated, notably in 1961 (+ 39 percent), 1964 (+ 31 percent) and 1968 (+ 18 percent). They decreased only very slightly in 1962 but increased mildly in 1965 when GDP stagnated. 53. The composition of imports by principal categories has remained remarkably stable since 1960 (see Table 3.3). Food, beverages and tobacco represent around 20 percent of the total and show a very mild tendency to decrease relatively; manufactured consumers' goods account for 33 percent; manufactured and semi-manufactured goods for use by industry for a little over 22 percent and 15 percent respectively. Within each broad category, however, there have been significant changes mainly as a result of import substitution. - 21 - 54. As in other former French colonies, there has been a shift in the gegapi orgi o 4--- ."away from VFra nntA tha frand 7neI The franc zone supplied 78 percent of total imports in 1960 and 62 percent in IYUGfl, Wag~ &..& . 64A. WAOt S. "At.3~ .-S c t r-~ in re se frot - re- nt.t 20 percent and that of all other countries from 14 percent to 31 percent. duuungL1 tIe latter, th=e -MV-St. 4311JUL LW&t. .0 9LLI= U&LLL.LA 016LL. O XWL~. JJ. ru.Luw.ug inm- L measurs tan uy rance, practially al exchange restrictions and import controls with non-franc countries were 11rst abo.isheu .4 u.y 71s1nu men re-estau-sheud 1-n -Septmmer A.8 However, restrictions on current operations and notably imports are not very stringent especially as regaru ECt countries, and there ae nUne for transaction with France. Import quotas imposed for non-franc imports are normally not entirely filled. The important reason fOr the preduomi- nance of imports from France is simply that most trading firms are French and that commercial channels with the former colonial power are long established. 56. Taxation on imports is essentially revenue oriented and it is described in Section D below. There is an element of protectionism due to the fact that in the absence of special countervailing conditions the import tax ("droit fiscal V'entree") increases with the degree of proces- sing of the product. For example, live cattle are exempt whereas carcass meat is charged 45 percent. Also, as described in the annex report on industry, new enterprises generally benefit from tax exemptions on imported inputs and/or obtain some special protection for the finished product. There is some discrimination in rates by countries of origin; countries of the Western Africa Customs Union receive the lowest rates, EEC countries have a favorable treatment relative to other countries which are charged the full rates. Since 1968 France is not treated more favorably than the other European Cormon Market countries. Exports 57. Exports of raw and semi-processed agricultural products represent about 90 percent of total exports and are considered in detail in the annex report on agriculture. The remarkable growth of exports since 1960 is primarily attributable to sales of coffee, cocoa and timber, which have been as follows, in round figures: - 22 - 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 (Provisional) Coffee (1,000 tons) 148 186 181 149 214 (202) (CFAF billion) 19 26 30 25 36 ( 32) Index of value 100 136 158 132 189 Cocoa (1,000 tons) 63 126 124 107 121 (110) (CFAF billion) 9 11 13 14 19 ( 20) Index of value 100 122 144 155 211 Timber (1,000 tons) 673 1,566 1,568 1,840 2.176 (2.300) (CFAF billion) 7 18 19 22 26 ( 29) Index of value 100 257 271 314 371 Total exports (CFAF billion) 44 71 78 82 108 Index of value 100 161 177 186 245 Percentage of three products in total 80% 77% 79% 74% 75% 58. The large fluctuations in quantities of coffee and cocoa do not reveal any definite trend. For example, in 1961 exports of coffee were higher than in 1967 and those of cocoa only slightly lower. Coffee exnorts are partly limited by the Ivory Coast's quota under the International Coffee Organization (173.000 tons in 1969/70). However, sales to non-member coun- tries have taken place every year. The Ivory Coast also announced destruc- rnn nf large stocks of coffee in 1969. Rinnp 1965- and of course subiect to annual and intra-anniuAl variations, export prices for both coffee and cocoa have moved favorably nn-rimlly fn-r the 1atter- while those for timher havp hppn mih more stable. The very high level of 1968 exports is thus largely the result of the good coffee prices which havea nimirl Qinno IQAA#- p 41m=d vj4t-lh an exceptionally large crop, of a 20 percent rise in cocoa prices over the in response to favorable demand conditions for the Ivory Coast resulting Nigeria. In all these products the Ivory Coast has become an important expULLe* L LHrak LLLL.LU &LL "u WULLU 1LJL VAL LULLL JA.cL coca LLU first in Africa for timber. Ivorian exports of these products are there- fore bound to affect world pies. The OfUA unit values- uL the tnree products derived from export statistics are: - 23 - I.. 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969t Coffee 91 100 119 120 120 114 Cocoa 164 100 121 151 180 230 Timber 87 100 105 104 113 109 f Based on results for first six months. 60. Another eight or so agricultural products together contribute 10 nercent of merchandise exnorts. notably bananas Dineapnles (fresh, canned and juice), cotton and cotton seeds, rubber, palm produce, copra, and cola nuts. Some. such an cola nuts- have been exnorted to neiahborina countries since ancient times. Others have been developed comparatively rnent1v fnr examnle hanAnna (147-000 1-on in 196RY rnhhpr (7-000 tons in 1968), largely by French planters who used to be active in former Tndnirhina and in CaMnn- Pinapnnple are arman hith en lnre nlAntationa and by "outgrowers." Cotton production was started in the post-World War TT wanva na 4n th thp nor nat ^f favmer Franch Afrie- hilt its rnid ea s s in t-- - - - -- - - - - I - development has taken place only in the last few years (1968: 11,000 tons of f4hav n41 nalnm an onni hait homa hsai Ag-alelai nn a Iairem canola ninra 1965 as a main part of the Government's diversification policy and will becom - i-..,,---aLtsouce -f-xprtsi-th--aly- evntis- 61. NJon-agri cu.ltural 1xport-o i4lUAe Smal1 -,,A .4a - - n - ~ 4 - - - of diamonds and of manganese. Industrial products, excluding semi-proces- SAn, agricultural product suc as.a., saw.n, n. 14-1 .er, g4 nrnedn coto,-, panm o.41 etc. are negligible. New assembly lines in other African countries have put au euu to exOIkrt of cars anu Ag. L.LAu. y. .VtJLY 'vacO onu. GA J% 10 of petroleum products have ceased because of rapidly increasing consumption L. Utue. EoAyUL gLWL s ee uncu LaLA"LtLatU uy Um priefeLLiA LLeatment on the European Common Market that the Ivory Coast shares with other a oat ed count res4 , 0-A J.41 hU a1 . C.y - -t-.- - -C- - - 5t al1.. still more favorable treatment on the French market. Terms of Trade 62. The available information is insufficient to determine exactly &aUW LCEmB UL LrUU IIVC CVULVtU. WLI"Ct 6U CXpUrt price UUCA Lur 9t three major export products can be determined 1/, a corresponding import IA ~ ~ J IL--- A - -..l-...j A E ..A.. .L4 Ine inuex is bused on 1765 weights ano oe unit value iuexes of the Table in paragraph 59. - 24 - index does not exist and cannot readily be calculated. However, it is unlikely that import prices rose on the average by more than 3.5 percent per year. On this hypothesis the terms of trade have improved since 1965 and were particularly favorable in 1968 and 1969. In the latter years they were somewhat less favorable, however, than in 1960. 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 (6 months) 1. Export price "index" 105 100 115 120 130 136 2. Import prices: + 3.5% p.a. 84 100 103.5 107 111 115 3. Terms of trade (1)/(2)xlOO 125 100 111 112 117 118 Private Non-trade Flows 63:.. Private factor payments (i.e. excluding interest on public debt) have increased practically every year starting with CFAF 7.8 billion in 1960 to CFAF 8.6 billion in 1968. i.e. almost five times or twice as rapidly as goods exports. During the same period transfers from wages and salaries are roughly estimated to have doubled: they were close to CFAF 11 billion in 1968. The two items combined have thus amounted to approximately one- fourth of the value of imports every year since 1960. 64. Factor payments Droner consist mainly of investment income of foreign based firms. About two-thirds of private transfers consist of savings by foreien African workers and one-third of similar savince nf non- African expatriates. While investment income and non-African transfers go mnqtlv to FranceP Ravings by foragn Africann on mainly to nnper Vlta and to that extent do not affect the external reserves of the Monetary Union. Such transfers are a vpry imnnrtnnr antirce of inpnnp fnr Tjnnar Vnlta OnA also for Malt, the other main recipient country. Private Capital 65. Except for 1966 when it was very low, net private long-term t. k. a . . 4.* .&J..S L& *. - -w -& 11 - -. *JW OO .LLUU9/ L&CO been.fairly stable since 1963, varying between 3.1 and 4.7 billion without ry! LAc L LLr nU Up UL or Wd . a t Lives n uv m n ---- AMOULLIn k M MULUMU 1 substantially exceeded the net inflow of private capital, and the diffe- rence between the two nas grattly inureasu e u ecrL years. (CFAF billion) 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1. Net long-term capital 4.5 4.7 4.4 0.5 3.1 4.0 2. Net investment income -4.7 -6.5 -5.9 -9.1 -8.4 -8.6 3. Difference (1-2) -0.2 -1.8 -1.5 -8.6 -5.3 -4.6 Gross private borrowing abroad has been important, averaging CFAF 2.5 billion since 1963 but reimbursement of loans have greatly increased leaving an averate net inflow of only 0.9 billion in 1965-68 or half the level of 1963-64. Public Transfers and Capital - External Debt Service 66. Gross public transfers have been about CFAF 7 billion p.a. since 1965, about half in the fnrm nf devlnnment grants and half an technical assistance, both mostly from France and FED. French grants have diminished nomewhat and French tArhne-Al AnnainAntno In navannnal in atih4t.rt to an overall ceiling (CFAF 2.1 billion since 1965). Mainly as a result of th4 tranaFeahnad hv the cav"nment wh4rh 4%ie-1ii t-hi T%mv-r Cannt's contribution to the salaries of technical assistants have increased steadily last four years. 67. External public borrowing became increasingly important after 10OKA Dransa on loans over thAe C_-. loe'.10r'-f . . ~ 11 *'J. u v Couo JvL Lnc *14& yease .&vY-vo n--- LuS& LC.LLC CFAF 26 billion (US$105 million) or 6.5 billion per year. Reimbursements so far have been equivalnt to hal Crhe g-rfosv .. Tm.. e 4.n -- r - "s in - importance of loan capital relative to public transfers since the mid-sixties recent economic history. 68. Service on external debt (as known from balance of payments sta- LJ L; ue LrUmaJiiu Lignt tuit'"" now, even if private debt service is included. The following figures include interest and capital payments %tartLuA UL.L4.LUL'I. - 26 - 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1. Public debt service 0.5 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.5 5.4 2. Private debt service 0.1 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.3 3. (1) as % of exports f g & n . . .N . 1 . 6 1 . 7 2. 2 2.4 4. 1J %-/ as . of exports (g & n.f.s.) 0.8 2.7 2.7 3.6 4.1 5.8 /a g & n.f.s. = goods and non-factor services. Public debt service though not yet a significant burden in terms of its claim ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - on11t foeg ecag uu~Lis omprblents for public finance. C. Money. Prices and Wa--e- . ronetary Developments 69. The essential features of monetary institutions and policies are determined by the Ivory Coast's membership in the West African Monetary Union (Union monetaire Ouest Africaine - UMuA) within the franc zone. The general rules applicable to the Union will not be discussed here. A full evaluation of the monetary system from the point or view or development problems of member countries can be properly done only for the area as a whole. What follows are some considerations on institutional and policy developments peculiar to the Ivory Coast and on interest rates from the limited point of view of the Ivorian experience it only because this expe- rience is in many respects unique within the Union. Institutions 70. Economic growth has been accompanied by diversification of mone- tary and financial institutions. The banking system is more developed than in most other countries in the Monetary Union. There are four private commercial banks with 27 permanent branches of which 14 outside Abidjan and 26 semi-permanent offices, or one (permanent) branch for 190,000 inha- bitants against one for 150,000 in Senegal and one for 270,000 in the Monetary Union as a whole. The commercial banks are all private with a majority of French capital and participations from American, Italian, and German banks as well as a small proportion of Government capital through SONAFI's 1/ participation. Total assets of the banking system at the end of 1969 were close to CFAF 100 billion ($360 million) or three times more 1/ Societe Nationale de Financement. - 27 - than in 1962. In the public sector there is the Savings Bank and a postal checking account system, both established with the Post Office network. As in other former French colonies the Caisse Centrale de Co- operation Economique (CCCE) has a branch in Abidjan. It lends to the public sector, public enterprises and local authorities, as well as to the Govern- ment. and has participations in the capital of three Ivorian credit insti- tutions. 1/ 71. Specialized institutions are a more original feature. They include two private hire purchase institutions (for automobiles and for public works equipment). Agricultural credit since December 1968 is in principle extended by a public Banaue Nationale de Develoonement Agricole (BNDA) following the failure and liquidation of the former institution (Cainse Nationale de Credit Avricole - CNCA)_ Oneration bv BNDA so far have remained very limited. One reason is simply the difficulties inherent in thin tvnp of credit in all Afrienn r-muntripa- anothpr in that credit to farmers is already channelled by specialized agricultural development ag-ncies (for examnlp for nil nalm- rice et-).- Tndutntrinl credit in granted by the Banque Ivoirienne de Developpement Industriel (BIDI), a 4rint- 4inlarntAonal ranture 14elAing TVC) with Gronment 3rt-irinatIon 72. FNT ?I chnA _nMAWVT w4 11 ha& vera &Td Intr a vbnu rqatntion with on%1- =-- --.- ____-- -%,- -e-e late- - .-nco... c io. wi . r-1-- cies for mobilizing local savings. While FNI's role as a lender is limited to ensuring that -conditions for ---in- FNI certificates in financin- new in- vestment are fulfilled, SONAFI takes direct participations in undertakings .,. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ -. __ --- -,U -. j 3. billion atb------------------- the end of 1969. However, the combined yield on these investments is low fr..7r91'V *1% a,- heaue san es-m>masen4ome partdAA by *lhe 1.Jo yesI/ Cly tic A.u F sumo nsaL ov wers eA Lact UseciA Government rather than SONAFI's management without much regard to economic consdeatns.-a Sin tue Gove-mentw 0^1Je AVTAT -- 07/ ..4lA -- --Un unw,LussaL.Juno. 8UuI. vaLaU==0o avant O A LL y 3.LU WLn ouLu%L participations the difference must be made up by budget subventions. 73. The most original and most important financial institution Is the 4et.ms A.#.. alA /--AA1 .-04*. ToO T AA4+4 Autes owume d numorsnwens %CInA, ,rL.An in 19dy 5 An amu-onu to its public debt department (see section D below) it comprises a banking us s m .s %LA.&Am .LY ea u WWDV- n WL M ywo "'F 60 1 AAuAe uA&MOu ne ! a= dually become one of the largest holder of deposits in the country. These uLgpoits are un l y FUu.L.S LA uLLgu. KLU.LJu MUCL1 LmpurELuL LULLUO %4%n LM become increasingly involved in operations of three kinds: rediscounting of private bills (npecially customs UilS), sUrt-term leniug to commer- cial banks, and medium and long-term lending for development projects. BesiUes, Lte CA nan liquiu investments aUrOau, iucLuUing assets ousUde the franc zone from which resulted a windfall profit from the 1969 devalua- tion on its non-franc assets. Ine following table summarizes UnUa banking department position at the end of September every year. 1/ See section on Industrial Policies. 2/ Fonds National d'Investissement.. - 28 - IMPAV 1,4114--N1 long-term) 1.9 1.9 2.3 3.4 3.6 - 3. Liquid assets 12.2 11.8 13.0 7.6 12.5 (*Es timate) The many facets of CAA, including management of the public debt, give LI* a very 1uCLuL cuJu %u aUp.LmU1Wug eI urmJ. cLJv11es o Lef. banking sys tem. CAA provides additional liquidity to commercial banks and LUuoug cerea±u crCoxL Uywra.ne wo1use LunancJug wou.Le ocuerW158 be more difficult. Because most public deposits are held by CAA, the Tresor may some8tmes lack surfent ±lquly. Suen difficuties are easily solved through short-term advances by the central bank to the Government, wThin stract etautory Aimn , mandbmey coorduaton of a and the Tresor's actions. Monetry re 74. Economic development has led to a progressive "monetization" or the economy (see Table 6.1) and caused money supply to rise by an average 14.2 percent p.a. from 1962 to 1968, or 18 percent faster than GDP at current prices. Money supply declined slightly with the overall stagnation of 1965, but increased very rapidly at times of accelerated growth of GDP as in 1964 and in 1968. The ratio of GDP to money supply (including quasi-money) declined from 5.5 in 1962 to 4.4 in 1968, as a result of a decline in the share of non-marketed output, and an increase in the velocity of circulation of money. The ratio of monetized GDP to money has also declined from 4.5 to 3.9. Another indication of the pro- gressively "modern" character of the economy is the increasing ratio of deposit money to currency: demand deposits were practically as large as currency circulation in 1968 and exceeded it in June 1969. In 1962 cur- rency circulation was 50 percent larger than demand deposits. 1/ BCEAO (Banque Centrale des Etats de 1'Afrique de 1'Ouest) may provide advances to the Government for 240 days (extendable to 360 days) for an amount equivalent to 10% (extendable to 15%) of tax revenue of previous fiscal year. - 29 - 75. Time deposits have increased eight times between 1962 and 1968, liabilities. This results partly from increased private savings, but to a uchL greate extentLl~L from isn deost byS puli frm an institu~L~ t-n, notably the agricultural price stabilization fund. 76. While credit to the private sector more than doubled from 1962 LU .L;7UU, ne LLCUL Lu GUVeLumenu bcaeL icrsinly nCgaLAVe as a L tCL of the rise in Government deposits. Claims of the banking system on the Lverment nave in fact ueen limiic LU u a smal n cashacilities gLILCU Uy the central bank for periods not exceeding a few days or weeks. The level of credits LO Lne private sector is primarily determineu by te size or the coffee and cocoa crops and by the level of imports. The greatest in- creases occurred iu x7v4 %,-rjo pCrcULIn, Jn 17Ut I -tLJ PULUCUL tLIU LU X7O (+15 percent). The central bank has always been active in financing short-term credit. At tne peak or the coffee and cocoa campaigns, during the first quarter of each year, it rediscounts between 30 and 40 percent of the credits made by commercial banks. Largely thanks to the central bank's intervention, the financing of short-term credit has never raised serious problems. 77. Medium and long-term credit extended Dy Danks remains compara- tively small. Most of this credit is in fact extended by the Government and foreign aid institutions. Foreign firms often use funds and resources from their head branches abroad. Moreover, the expansion of medium and long-term bank credit is limited by the strict conditions common to the Monetary Union imposed on the rediscounting of such credits by the central bank. Nevertheless, the volume of these credits has increased markedly, from CFAF 3.2 billion in 1963 to CFAF 9.4 billion in December 1966, CFAF 11.2 billion in 1967, and CFAF 13.1 billion in 1968, principally as a result of the operations of public or semi-public credit institutions. Interest Rates 78. For over ten years the Monetary Union's central bank rediscount rate has remained at 3.5 percent. Consequently the average level of in- terest rates has remained low. However the range of rates is wide. Short- term rates (not including commissions, etc.) for overdraft commercial bills and similar operations are between 4.5 percent and 6.5 percent when redis- countable and up to 9 percent if not rediscountable. Medium and long-term credits are extended at rates of 4.5 to 7.5 depending on the sector of acti- vity and on whether the credits are eligible to central bank rediscounting or not. 79. The widening disparity between interest rates in the Monetary Union and the rest of the world have not had serious adverse effects so far, even though in France with which capital movements remain unrestrict- ed, the discount rate has been 7 to 8 percent since early 1969. One would have expected, other,things being equal, large capital outflows and a sharp - 30 - fall in external reserves. Neither has happened and reserves of the Union At thp Pnd of 1969 at a rprord level of CFAV 48 billion (S173 millIon) or CFAF 8 billion more than at the end of 1968. The reason is that banking and radit rpgiatiloni in thp Union enRnrp that hnth horrowPr= and lndPrR use their own resources to the maximum and therefore do not invest abroad mnnva than what ic thoiht arrPntabl from the pnint of vIew of the Unin' external reserves. This is done mainly by quantitative controls on redis- coun .4 failtiesa nd b- liquidi4ty ratiosa impnosed4 on tfht banks;r suc,h pol~i-. cies are strictly enforced by BCEAO. 80. There have been suggestions at the central bank that the dscount rate should be raIsed, but because direct contrOls are soef cient and because low interest rates are considered very advantageous, be efficient a rise in the discount rate ought to be rather large and this mightLL adverselLy afct. ecoomi acivt as/LLL.AL aL whole byA dicurgn C L3J~U AAO./L5Along=ter.- investment and increasing the cost of marketing export crops. It might U aLgUed LhaL bigihteL AALCLOOL LCLC WVU.LU U= k-V&LUUUL.LV= LU AL=00 jadJ.LLA intensive methods of production thereby economizing capital and making use of unemployed labor. Serious doubts may be cast on this sort of effect: responsiveness of methods of production to changes in interest rates are far frum clear Lhere isno general unemployment in, tne Ivery Coast but rather labor shortages are now apparent in agriculture whereas there is unemployment of unskilled workers in the towns. The interes rate structure is an instrument, and a secondary one, for the selective distribution of credit and, under the conditions of the Monetary Union, it is not designed to serve as a tool for controlling overall money supply or achieving external balance both of which concern the Monetary Union as a whole and not individual countries as such. Within this wider framework money supply is essentially controlled through strict statutory limits on credit to the Government, discount ceilings and liquidity ratios whereas the external balance has resulted from a combination of "real" and monetary factors: growth of exports of the Union, external aid and also credit control. Short-term liquidity crisis for any individual country are for all practical purposes inconceivable. Unlimited convertibility of the CFA franc into French franc would in any event prevent any such unlikely crisis from threatening the Union as a whole. Finally the central bank feels that though varying circumstances in the different member countries could in theory justify different interest rates from one to the other, this might result in undesirable intercountry capital movements. The central bank (BCEAO) seeks to ensure that capital resources in each country are fully utilized. However, in its recent issue to the general public the Government, as noted earlier, has felt it necessary to propose a 7 percent rate and other financial incentives. This has resulted in small savings which might otherwise have gone into consumption but certainly not into investments abroad. In order to retain those savings that are normally exported, it would probably be necessary to enforce interest rates at least as high as in international capital markets and probably considerably higher. All in all. as lone as the external reserves of the Union remain at a satisfactory level, it would not seem necessary or advisable to enforce higher interest rates. - 31 - 2. Prices and Wages 81. The data on prices indicate that economic growth has not been accompanied by sharp increases in prices: Price Index for "African-Familv" Consumption (Feb. 1960 - 100) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 102.9 112.7 112.4 112.4 113.9 117.0 121.9 124.6 136.3 143.9 The average annual increase in the price index for African consumers was 3L9 narcant n.A Thin rat wnn avrapApd in 1Qf1 and 1968 and AlOn in 1969 owing to the devaluation in August of that year. Price increases fnr "rurnpann" tipe onainnption havM Annfanly-1% hpn amaller* 3 percnt p.a. The price index for building materials (composed in 1956) shows a ramairkAhly 14m4te vian ^f evly Q nartant hanTann 10AA anA TimnI 1QrQ _ _ _ - - - -.' _ _ et e n 1 6 Jun 190-- - . But admittedly, the reliability of price indicators is open to question wI4ith resp iect toi coeae wei41ftev onaA ^fu-j., ~ 82 . N ot - nough 4g. 1L-ft V__ 1 a n * ~ a - local foodstuffs, which, owing to their character, cannot readily be rew.1anA nw annel aane.A k- 4mna ..t4 d4 a. 4.v ....nl. aat 1 4 al to r- - -& - Irra_u_ - -. -1 a..y. U-o -a& A...o L V Le aL.aJ produce price fluctuations which may not be fully reflected in officially *C'L.ma y&.eavm wwn av wwmyO&eave ouyA au4ICmokaI.JA..y ALA awOJ*ePAu L. growing demand it is-probable that prices of local foodstuffs have increased moe than thoe Of oiuer prOux-CM0 since 1967. V -U-- --- jdL'.WCJL.7 IJ&...J~L KW&L V6&&L SW & which are traded internationally and which can be imported owing to the openness o n vLLlI-uoin =%uL1LUy VUfLLULLUU5 LU PkLCO aLC JLVuuMy uC&tr- mined primarily by world market prices or by prices in the principal suplyyig counris sucu as France. I rise in ag-regame demanu in ue Ivory Coast is unlikely to have significant impact on such prices. In hu theL7 deaA " uUVB.LAVo oA &WI-P . LVM L in LALaU LU UHn-Eanc currn- cies, should have increased the cost of imports only from the non-franc zone nuu very marginally L.UUS uL4.u.LUafAtU8 AU LC ZVne. nowever, the Ivorian authorities claimed that many French exporters increased their prices on goods exported to Afrrca well beyond what would De justified by the indirect effects of the franc devaluation. To limit further short- run price increases, the Government froze all prices as or September 1YoV, and made specific increases subject to governmental approval. Wages 83. The Ivory Coast applies a system of minimum wage rates (salaire minimum interprofeesionnel aranti - SMIG), which in principle determines the national wage structure. The minimum wage rate has been changed in the recent past after having been stable for a long period. On April 1, 1968, regional differentials of SMIG for non-agricultural labor were discontinued - 32 - and the new national SMIG was fixed at its highest level, that prevailing in Abidian. of CFAF 42.40 per hour. Before this change. the SMIG outside Abid- Jan was CFAF 38.20. On July 1, 1968, the SMIG was raised for all sectors by 10 percent. Thus, the new minimum rate for non-aericultural labor became CFAF 46.61 per hour and CFAF 20.50 for agricultural labor, with the excep- tion of the forestry sector where it was CFAF 24.50. Minimum wage rates for skilled labor are determined by joint commissions, including repre- sentatives from the Government, from labor and from employers. 84. In March 1970. followine the "dialogue" between the President of the Republic and representatives of all social groups, a new general in- crease in wages was decided- annlicable as of January 1. 1970 The SMT. was thus raised by 25 percent and other wage rates by between 5 percent (for the highest brackets) and 20 nercent (for the lower brackets). The total additional cost to the private sector of this general rise has been esti- mated at Ahout CFAV 11 hillion for the full year. Tn fact, wage rates --------------- --j---_------0 C actually applied before the general increase were commonly above minimum offiriAl rate nwing to a number of frine hPnefits. Tn MArch 1970 an effective as of January 1, 1970, wages and salaries in the public sector were alan raised (see sertion D hnw- The general increase in wages and salaries is far from being insignificant for the economy as a whole aince it wnld repvesant at A nrent of the 10-8 GDP. 85.Paati- fnri, Mhi ar w,a&aa hma hspnnm inrniow tv-nn& 4n tha recent past because of a more rapid increase in the cost of living and beause.a of t-ha n pff.,-tll ~5i-mnnpq-,taA w4ti-h t-ho h4eh IMinal ^ wages of expatriates and of Africans in the highest echelons. These pres- sures a e an impornt--ei aspec- of t-he demand for a more -JnA 4-..4z.aion of the economy. 86. As is often the case, such a general increase in wages may well SEouu a"U 311C LLLV Li .LLtL..Laa= FJLVU"%UL.LVA. Ly , jJL#L.L%L%._JaL.Y LLL L&~.UU trial sector. As there is ample room for such productivity increases, the oVerll i L AL wUsge LaC DHUu UL U .UeAucLU aC U=.LL&g neLesDarly a disturbing factor in the economy. These wage increases, however, may well contribute to aggravate ±lI at10aLy preSSureS, parCu.Lty .L foUU suppLisc were adversely affected by poor crops; they will also result in higher levels of imports of consumer goods and this will nave an anti-inflationary effect. As the prospects for exports of the principal crops in 1970 are good, the increase in imports determined by higher wages should not significantly af- fect the trade balance. A possible unfavorable effect of the increase in wage rates, in the snort-run, may be some reduction in the level of urban employment to the extent that some firms in a difficult financial position will have to dismiss workers. Also, it is unlikely that the demand for labor by firms in the modern sector will be stimulated. On the other hand, it is possible that the rise in agricultural wages may result in greater labor supply in this sector, particularly on the large plantations where it is most needed. In this respect, however, it seems that the differential between agricultural and non-agricultural wages remains too large and this will remain a disincentive to agricultural employment. - 33 - D. Public Finance and the Mobilization of Capital Resources for the Public Sector 1. General 87. The essential features of Government finance are summarized in the table below. Over the; 1960-70 period, total Government revenue increased at an annual average rate of 11.7 percent, 1/ whereas current expenditure rose only by 10.2 percent on an average over the same 10 years, both at current prices. The ratio of Government tax revenue to GNP rose from 17.7 percent in 1960 to 19.5 percent in 1968. The ratio of budgetary savings (current surplus) to revenue amounted to 18 percent and 21 percent respectively. Revenues increased more rapidly than expenditures in the 1960-65 period. The corresponding average growth rates were 12.7 percent for revenues and 9.5 percent for expenditures. In the 1965-70 period the situation changed. Revenues increased more slowly than previously - by only 10.8 percent per year - and also somewhat more slowly than current expenditures. 88. The essential feature of Government current revenue and expenditure since 1965 has been the wide disparity in rates of growth from year to year. Thus, revenues practically stagnated in 1967 mainly because of a general slowing down in the growth of foreign trade transactions. Conversely. a spectacular increase of 25 percent in current revenue took place in 1968 when, compared to 1967. exports rose by 33 percent and imports 28 percent, and an additional revenue of CFAF 5 billion was also obtained from important reforms of the value added tax and of the general income tax. 2/ In 1969 reve- nues benefited fully from the tax reforms introduced in the previous year and partly from the effects of the devaluation of the CFA franc in AuRust that year. The increase in revenue was 11.4 percent and the ratio of budgetary savines before debt service increased to 27 nercent: this pronortion howver remained below those of 1964 and 1965. The full effect of the devaluation is expected to be felt in 1970: this largely exrlains the high Ievel of the estimates for that year which are 12.8 percent above 1969 realizations. In March 1970 the Government decided a Reneral salary increase for the nublic sector. Salaries will be raised by 5 percent (for the higher ones) to 32 percent (for the lower ones) resulting in a aunlementary wage bill of CFAF 1.6 billion, representing 32 percent of the total increase in expenditures this vear (1970)- Theme meanures will result In a 2-8 nerrnt increna in the share of wages and salaries in total current expenditures, which in recent years averaged 45 nercent. 1/ Figures for 1960-61 are unreliable. The average rate of increase for 1962-70 Ancrdin& tn thA ltant (May 19701 vaiiP hiAnta f4env-a nyd 11.2% p.a. 2/ As a result of the introduction of the "pay-as-you-earn" system for -eYronal 4 aavi,,incmtae,rvnsave ben ta aA $-4 ..- 4-. 1 05. GOVERNMENT FINANCE* (CFAF billion) 1960 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 196! -70 (estimates) 1. Total Government Revenue 26.5 44.6 48.2 51.0 51.2 64.0 71.3 80.4 366.1 2. Total Current Expenditure 21.6 32.1 3h.0 39.2 41.7 50. 52.0 57.0- 274.4 3. Total Budgetary Savings 4.9 12.5 1-.2 11.8 9.5 13.5 19.3 23.4 91.7 4. Debt Service (by CAA)c/ .2 2.4 4.- 4.6 4.,9 .5 5.4 8.6 33-5 5. Total Savings available for investment 4.7 10.1 9.7 7.2 4.6 8.0 13.9 14.8 58.2 6. Ratio of savings (3) to revenue (1) 18% 28% 29% 23% 19% 21% 27% 29% 25% 7. Ratio of savings (5) to revenue (1) 18% 23% 20% 14% 9% 13% 19% 18% 16% On cash basis for calendar years. J This includes some investment expenditure (estimated between CFAF 1.7 and 2.2 billion per year in national accounts) and the net deficits of Treasury accounts outside the budget insofar as they correspond to current expenditures. Current budget only (budget g6nral). c/ Amortization and interest. Source: Annex - Tables 5.1-5.2 - 35 - Revenue Structure 89. The Ivorian fiscal system is similar to that of other countries in French speaking Africa. The revenue structure of the Ivorian economy is summarized in the following tables. Structure of Government Revenue for Selected Years 10K nc... rv ' 1.7 A .L.~~~A;v .7.rc VU~79.'. I. a £ I. i1).i ±U OI ~ au Ypu.L L U 4 4 L4J -Taxes on property 3.0 4.3 3.2 2. Indirect Taxes on Domestic Transactions Lu.V 17.o I y -Value added tax 4.5 9.8 8.6 -Excise taxes 6.4 7.8 10.4 3. Indirect Taxes on Foreign Trade 70.2 60.9 59.2 -Import taxes 46.8 40.5 40.4 of which: Import duties (32.8) (23.9) (21.4) Value added tax (11.3) (14.1) (17.4) -Export duties 23.4 20.4 18.8 4. Other Taxes 2.3 3.7 1.1 5. Non-tax Revenue 7.2 3.3 3.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 90. Direct taxes were only 1.8 percent of GNP in 1960, but increased progressively to 3.1 percent in 1965. Their corresponding share in govern- ment revenue rose from only 9 percent in 1960 to 14 percent in 1965 and are estimated to .17 percent in 1970. Income and profit taxes account for the bulk of this revenue. 91. In 1968 profit tax rates were increased from 25 to 33 percent. As a result of these changes and of the introduction of the "pay-as-you-earn" system for personal income taxes, direct tax revenue increased between 1967 and 1968. The system of direct taxation as a whole is only very sliRthlv progressive and it seems reasonable to expect direct taxes to make an in- creasinK contribution to Government revenue in the future. - 36 - 92. Indirect taxes absorbed 15 percent of GNP in 1960, 16 percent in 1965 and will probably represent 17.5 percent in 1970. Indirect taxes accounted for about 80 percent of Government revenue in the period 1960-70. Average Annual Growth Rates of Main Taxes (Percent) 1%60-65 1965-70 1960-70 Direct Taxes 23.2 14.4 18.7 of which: - Income and Profits 24.1 17.7 20.9 Indirect Taxes 12.3 10.4 11.3 of which: - Value added tax 22.7 12.3 17.4 - Excise taxes 15.8 14.2 15.0 - Export duties 10.0 8.6 9.3 - Import duties 6.1 8.0 7.1 Total Tax Revenue 14.0 10.4 12.2 93. The share of import and export taxes and duties (including value added tax on imports) in Government revenue amounted to around 70 percent, in 1960, but declined to 61 percent in 1965 and to 59 percent in 1970. The effect of the devaluation is reflected in a 15 percent increase in the yields of export duties in the budget estimates for 1970. The value added tax contributed in 1960 some 16 percent to Government revenue and accounted in 1965 for some 24 percent (about the same share as import taxes and duties that year). In 1970 it is expected to be the most important single source of revenue, accounting for some 26 percent of the total. Rates on the latter tax were raised by two points in the tax reform program of 1968 yielding an additional revenue of some CFAF 4 billion. Excise taxes, prin- cipally on gasoline, tobacco and alcoholic beverages, accounted for 8 percent in 1965 and increased during the following years to 10 percent in 1970. 94. Non-tax revenue, such as income from Government property admin- istrative fees, service charges, etc., accounted only for some 3 percent in the 1965-70 period and its share decreased slightly in recent years. 95. Allocation of Government revenue. Total Government revenue is allocated to the Current Budget 1/, the Investment Budget 2/ and the Amortiza- 1/ BudRet General (BG). 2/ Rtudcet Snprial d'TnvPntqhqPment at d'EnnnPement (ESTE._ - 37 - tion Fund 1/ by earmarking tax revenue to each of the budgets 2/, as shown in the followtin table: Main Allocations of Government Revenue (CFAF billion) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1970 Current Budget 36.4 39.6 39.1 48.2 55.0 58.7 73 Investment Budget 7.6 7.1 7.5 10.8 9.9 13.1 16. Amortization Fund 4.2 4.3 4.6 5.0 6.4 8.6 11 TOTAL 48.2 51.0 51.2 64.0 71.3 80.4 100 Taxes on income and profits as well as the value added tax are allocated among the Current Budget, the Investment Budget and the Amortization Fund. Taxes on property, business and license taxes go both to the Current Budget and the Investment Budget. The excise taxes are entirely earmarked for the Investment Budget. The remaining tax receipts and other non-tax revenues are allocated to the Current Budget which disposed of some 76 percent of total Government revenue in 1965 and 73 percent in 1970. In 1965 and 1970 the share of the Investment Budget in total revenue was 15 percent and 16 percent respectively and that of the Amortization Fund 9 and 11 percent. The share of Government revenue allocated to the Investment Budget and the Amortization Fund has increased in recent years due to the expanded invest- ment program and higher debt charges. Government Current Expenditures 96. A combined functional and administrative classification of current expenditure is shown below for selected years: 1/ Caisse Autonome d'Amortissement (CAA). 2/ These include far less important allocations also (to roads fundf to reforestation fund etc.). - 38 - Government Current Expenditures (Percent) 1960 1965 1970 Geneald 13 37 2R -Deens ((2) Social 28 314 -Education (15)% (17)123 -Health (8) (1 (1 Economicrn 26; 1 123 'ITTonJL-,m MIC AA in aA. expe A4A tue tr 1A 01 xpenA4tues o ''eer! eric s ea a h g lana ave ag rate of 34 percent between 1960 and 1965 largely as the result of the estab- 1AD. CH UL -C LACU R u A A L a A M a hw H s c u u W \THD L U u Interior, Defense, Foreign Affairs, National Assembly, etc.) Their rate of growthdecine to.L.~ 5U percen AL 6LULLe~ .L7va-f F=JLiouL LLIUS hi hr f increased very rapidly and then declined after 1965. In 1970 they are ex- pecteu to account wor 20o percent o current udget untlays. 9o. Tie very low level or scnool atteunance at tue time or inepenuence and the high rate of population growth have quite normally resulted in a spectacular increase in absolute and relative terms for education and puDiC health expenditures. This increase has accelerated in recent years: it was 13 percent per year in 9ou-o ana 15 percent in 19oo-7u. In particular between 1967 and 1968 the increase was 19 percent. Outlays for education increased faster than expenditures for social services as a whole over the years 1965-70, or by almost 17 percent, as against 14.2 percent for health. In 1970 education and public health will account for 33 percent in total Government expenditures reflecting the high priority given by the Government to the Social Sector. 99. Outlays in Economic Services, principally affecting agriculture, animal production, and public works, increased by only 5 percent a year over the 1960-65 period, but have risen at an annual growth rate of 12 percent since 1965. In 1970 they will account for 23 percent in Government outlays, the same percentage as for education alone. 100. The distribution of current expenditure among wages and salaries (average 45 percent), materials and maintenance (average 32 percent), and transfers (average 23 percent) has not changed significantly in recent years. - 39 - 2. obilizing Capital Resources for the Public Sector 101. The Ivory Coast has so far financed from its own resources a much A.0 ...------nnb 4 , & dea n.ida 4 nwnman. neo Oe ehean on, Sn maw Wanlh niguer proporzt. in of its public instuntou prob-n-me tasan any fvems F&renc"u colony. External capital requirements however have been increasing rela- L.. 1 m.mA UM. LUS 7.W.Le A.anC 6W =&ss a. A so.. e o. c.aA.L. aL A U th4 attraction of foreign capital and enterprise have been facilitated by special uopeatiun agrwmems with the former colonial power, by its mem- bership in the franc area, and by its association with the European Economic %.WuuuUHAL Fe DUL LAAW LVILJ "C=U6 D AALL.L.L.L6y LU L J.LULC.LU %.=.L.MA LSaM above all been favorably affected by the country's development potential, iSrather libera&L lce andispliia taiiy .auA. Ine pattern of pubiuc investmen financing since ±0ou io carac- terized by a decline in the share of internal as against external resources and by an increase in the share of both external Dorrowing and non-Govern- ment public savings in the most recent years. These features are summarized in the following table. For lack or information, nowever, the data exclude investment by local authorities, which is small and largely financed through the central government bugdet, and some residential or office construction by public firms which has assumed some importance in the last few years. Sources of Finance for Public Investment /a 1960-66 1967 1968 1969 1970 1967-70a- /b Totaln 2ublic (CFAF billion) 93.2 20.9 22.3 32.0 47.0 130- 2. Financing (percent) 3. Budgetary savings 62.5 28.2 40.0 33.5 26.0 32.0 4. Other public savings --- 2.8 14.0 8.0 7.0 33.0 17.0 5. Public firms funds 7.5 10.7 6.8 8.4 7.0 7.5 6. Internal borrowing 0.1 1.4 2.2 3.7 2.0 3.0 7. External grants 14.5 17.8 11.5 10.3 5.0 10.5 8. External borrowing 12.8 28.0 31.5 37.1 27.0 30.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 /a Figures based on the estimates for the 1970 investment budget of CFAF 44.1 billion and therefore total planned public investment may be in the order of 47 billion. /b Including Government participations. /c This is a revised estimate of actual expenditure. Total financing mana nommitted for ananditure during the nariod will amount to about CFAF 145 billion of which CFAF 103 billion through BSIE. The revised total fnr 1967-70 wrtandi the num of inuptment eatimat-a for Pnrh yar for which revised estimates were not available to the Mission. /d Mainly- surpluses of the agricultural price stabilization fund transferred ton 1-ho4nnasmas ..a AVJ LIM sae L A4 L. t.LA PuU1 reoUurceo f m.L-O 32, T, &n S%A from nearly 73 percent in 1960-66 to. 56 percent in 1967-70. This has- im- portant implications. However, this relative decline s takeun place during a period when the annual level of public investment has increased 2.3 times. Thus the average. annual level of local public resources in 197-0u will have been close to CFAF 18 billion or almost double the level of 1960-66 at cur- rent prices. Even allowing for price increases, the absolute growth of public - 41 - savings remains quite significant. But there has been no growth of public mavinai invntead relative to CDP! thev were between 4.5 and 5 nereent both in the recent years (1967-68) and in 1960-66, although this proportion may wrnio al4pht1w hi&hav in 1QAQ and 1Q70 n a eAnplt of the trAnnafr rn the Government investment budget of large savings by public institutions (item 4 4f the boeabl) ntffab%ly than f the jaricltural iv4 atnh414yat-ine fund. 104. The share of public firms has changed little. This share has .mu~~~. &X_M -1-..~a.~ -1 - M t,_ ..C._t4 %. FF*.anp J %- -*~45 --. --- -.4- _ Cte-d'Ivoire - EECI), the Port of Abidjan, the Office of Post and Td14com- --fl A 4-1k- -~41- -Uf.. 44,k 4- A-4-4-1.. ---..A +,- .n --A -.4-1 TT--.-.n. uniatiOn' S u, 0"uA &CaJ.way W&A.L&n 4o JuJ&&.Ly vWn&% and vyprat%.U WAJu wrv4 a Volta (Regie Abidjan Niger - RAN), in decreasing order of their contribution o ..U .Lldc 4..9 a a s rh 4__ U_- - -I-Te U-a - 4 am -L a.u sk .u LAu..u uLLLV=O LU= eL.0. Ass oU LALmo.U L.v O a LFO =L L.LLIAaL%- %L%u%uLL 6u& Government budget (included under item 3), by borrowing from the French 11 nr-_ - useeri"~ ._ _ ...~. ~ 1J. Uovernment budget surpluseb, an Unhwn uefLue have fluctuateU markedly. Their size depends, by definition, on the level of current re- venue not spent by the current Oudget. nuwever the SybLem o earmarking tax revenues for the investment budget (BSIE) and for other purposes such as debt amortization (CAM has assured the availability or a certain minimum for investment. Because of its composition, tax revenue of the in- vestment budget is relatively less affected by overall economic fluctuations than taxes on imports and exports which are the principal sources of current budget revenues. While under the prevailing system current expenditures must be kept to the level of current revenue allocated to the Budget General, un- anticipated deficits or surpluses do, of course, occur from time to time. The Government may allocate new taxes to the investment budget, but it has not done so since the BSIE was instituted in its present form in 1965. As of 1970 some taxes (on spirits, tobacco and cartridges and part of the value added tax) previously allocated to the investment budget will be earmarked for other purposes, but at the same time the revenue from an additional tax on gasoline has been assigned to BSIE. The table below gives the evolution of the revenues of the investment budget and the occasional surpluses or deficits of the current budget as well as the variation of the net deficit of government accounts besides the current budget and which represent additions to Government current expenditures: (CFAF billion) 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Tax revenue going to BSIr 4.8 3.9 5.4 7.6 7.1 7.5 10.8 9.9 12.1 Surplus from current budget 1.7 - - 2.6 -0.2 -2.1 -0.2 2.0 - Net deficit of other accounts - -0.7 -0.6 -1.1 -1.1 -1.5 - 106. Public savings outside the Government budget and public firms come principally from the agricultural price stabilization fund, but also from other institutions such as the Social Security and pensions fund (Caisse de Compensation et de Prestations Familiales de Cote-d'Ivoire - CCPFCI). Opera- tions and results of CSSPPA are described elsewhere 1/. By nature the surpluses of the Caisse are unstable; net surpluses have been as follows: 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70* CFAF billion -0.9 4.8 6.5 9.2 (14.0) * rough estimate Until 1969 the Caisse used to transfer some of its profits to the Government investment budget (CFAF 1 to 3 billion). The balance has been used for subsidizing some agricultural operations (CFAF 1 - 1.5 billion each year), for office construction both for the Caisse and for rent (e.g. CFAF 3.5 billion for a 23-story building in Abidjan), or for investment in interest- yielding liquid assets, held either abroad or, more recently with the CAA. 107. This year (1970) the Government is expected to obtain CFAF 13.5 billion from the Caisse on terms still to be defined. This transfer will leave the Caisse sufficient liquid funds to perform its stabilization function if export prices decline. 1/ See Volume II of this report - Agricultural Development. - 43 - Internal Borrowing 108. Government internal borrowing from non public sources has consisted so far of a 6 percent long term loan issued by the Soci4t6 Nationale de Finan- cement (SONAFI) and subscribed mainly by insurance companies. Other internal borrowing takes place through the issue of certificates by the Fonds National d'Investissement (FNI) and Socidt& Nationale de Financement. Through the FNI the Government in fact requires private firms to lend to the Government part of their profits. The amount borrowed is actually assessed and collected by the Treasury together with the profits tax. From 1963 to 1969 compulsory subscriptions by firms to FNI certificates 1/ totalled about CFAF 12 billion. Of this no more than half has been transfered to FNI, and the balance has replenished the liquid funds of the Treasury. FNI certificates can, under certain conditions, be used by firms to finance new investments; what is not used in this way has to be consolidated by holders of certificates into SONAFI's bonds at 6 ;percent with 20 years maturity if the subscriber provides an equal amount in fresh money or into SONAFI's bonds at 2.5 percent with 40 years maturity when subscription is in FNI certificates. Of course sub- scription to the 6 percent bonds may be made entirely in fresh money. From 1963 to 1969, nearly CFAF 3 billion were thus collected through 6 percent loans of which about one third by utilization of FNI certificates. Proceeds of the 40 year loans at 2.5 percent amounted to CFAF 1.6 billion as of end November 1969. The 2.5 percent bonds are naturally not considered attractive investments and though not transferable in principle, unknown amounts are reportedly traded at around one fifth of their face value. 109. In December 1969, in a novel effort to mobilize private savings, the Government launched its first general public loan for an amount of CFAF 500 million. To make subscriptions attractive, the bonds were issued in units of only CFAF 5-000- carried an interest rate of 7 nercent and offered lottery prizes on reimbursement. To stimulate the development of an embryonic financial markiet the local commerial banks formed a inint nffire to "nPo" the price of the bonds at least at their par value. The loan was fully sub- scribed by the end of February 1970. About three fourths were taken un in Abidjan and mostly, Eas was the objective, by medium level wage earners, small planters and other Ivorian medium income arouns with the averace subscrintion being CFAF 27,500. 1/ Subscriptions to the certificates are based on taxable profits and rn11ArtPd hv trpAsury agents At thesa~me time as t-hp nrnfirt,.Q-ax Not. surprisingly they are often considered as a sort of additional tax, es- nrialnlv hv omarsll firma whieh are nnt ia Awi2wp n nf f-hp nnQQ4hld uses of the certificates and do not even care to obtain from FNI the actuial certi fict after the- have pai for it ton the. t-m -n olle-v - 44- External Aid and External Borrowing 110. As compared to other former French colonies of Africa, official arants have nlwav, contributed a smnll nronortion of nublic invPqtment fin:an-- cing in the Ivory Coast 1/. The small percentage of grants in total invest- mpnt- qimnlv reiflectod tHi country'R Ahilit to mobilize hoth internal re- sources and external loan capital. But there has been in recent years a dlibernt nolicv on the part of external sourreq to Pit-her dilcqArd or df- crease investment grants. Especially FAC but also FED and UN specialized napnpies nevertholePs continne to fin4nc trrhnjr1 asn-ltance 111 Ex*aTernal ntihlir inPVPnQ whicli yzas cmnll nt the time of independence more than doubled in the first half of the sixties and then trp4lAd in the net four yaxrs (19r to 196) as IZ ChI.M in the table below. External debt managed by CAA is shown below (item A) together with total external pu,bl ic o,r publicly gua.,,rarnteed debt as Io a h.. thot1- ,rn. 11-7 b'5 - - j - -.7 ment to IBRD (item B) 2/ since 1966. External Public Debt Outstanding at End of Year (CFAF billion) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 A - CAA debt . Total 10.0 11.5 14.0 17.0 19.4 24.0 30.0 33.5 70.8 76.0 . Disbursed 8.7 10.5 12.2 14.2 16.1 21.0 24.1 25.5 32.0 n.a. B - Reported to IBRD Total 48.5 57.0 90.0 95.0* Disbursed 37.0 37.0 48.0 n.a. Total ($million) 196.4 230.5 326.4 342.8* *Based on report to IBRD: includes new debts contracted between January 1, 1969 and August 14, 1969. 1/ However, in relation to its share in the total population of African countries associated with the EEC (6 percent), the Ivory Coast ob- tained a rather large proportion of the total grant aid available under the first and second FED (8 and 9 percent reipectively). 2/ Apart from possible discrepancies between figures given in CAA documents and reports submitted to the Bank by the Gove-nent, the substantial difference between the two is that CAA covers all Govern- mentU debtU andt a pat o.. the debLACt~U gu 5LarA.an.teed Liy t.*S h YA e )-4 --+-IlS SL the bulk of debt by local authorities, state firms or firms with Goverumenu participation, whereas teseo, wuen guaranteedu y ne Government - which is usually the case - are reported to IBRD. - 45 - LAn 19U MAULA LAe amount rA ew Ael cou=rac-ed through 0 U UblU d largely as the result of loans negotiated for the large Kossou and San Pedro projects. New Uut cuniacte nU 199 kup Lu fU8U.JL L4) LUL64b Urir .LJ.U LiLIUI k.?'4Y.4 million) including $17.1 million from IBRD. About 95 percent of the Govern- mient debt: as o.f the end o 019690 was debt externa] . 112. The share of contractors' and suppliers- credits I in Government external debt rose rapidly to 30 percent and 40 percent by the end of 1965 and 1967 respectively. While their share nad declined to 21 percent by the end of 1968 owing to the contraction of large long-term loans, their absolute total increased by CFAF 15 billion or 100 percent Detween the end of 1963 and the end of 1968. As of August 14, 1969 suppliers' credit and similar loans represented 26% of total external debt. 113. As late as the end of 1967 the average interest rate on Government debt was estimated to be about 3.5 percent and average repayment period 20 years. These average terms were considerably influenced by the favorable conditions of pre-independence loans from the Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique. Recently average terms have become harder. Thus the greater part of the debt contracted in 1968 is on terms closer to 7 percent. Suppliers' credits vary in terms. The greater part has maturities of 4-10 years and an interest rate of 8-9 percent. The real cost of such credits, is often increased by the higher price of the goods or services involved. 114. The share of the debt payable in non-franc currency has been increasing. Debt in 'French and CFA Francs, which in fact raises no imme- diate foreign exchange problem, and which accounted for three quarters of total Government debt in 1965, represented only 40 percent of the total in 1968. The other 60 percent was in Italian lire, U.S. dollars (20 percent each), German -marks (10 percent) etc. 115. With few exceptions, loans and credits outside suppliers' finance have been granted by official aid agencies: French FAC and Caisse Centrale, FED and the European Investment Bank, German Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau, U.S. Eximbank, etc. and, more recently, IBRD. Two notable exceptions are the biannual loans which have been issued since 1959 on the French capital market (with French Treasury guarantee) in a total amount of CFAF 6.65 billion (FF 133 million; $27 million) and $10 million borrowing on the Euro-dollnr market in 1968 (the first operation of this kind by a developing country). 1/ Predominantly contractors' credits, i.e. construction work partly pre-financed by contractors. ("Conventions h paiement diff4r4 - CPD"). - 46 - 116. The external debt may be classified according to three categories of "hardness": soft loans (interest rates of 2-4 percent and maturities of 20 years and more) from FAC, CCCE, FED, Kreditanstalt, etc., representing about 30 percent of total debt; medium-soft loans from EIB, Eximbank and IBRD, and CAA loans on the French market, etc., making up about 40 percent of the total; and hard loans, i.e. suppliers' credits, Euro-dollars loan, etc., which represent about 30 percent of the total debt. 117. So far, debt service has not been a heavy burden on the balance of Dayments. However, it has become an increasingly heavy charge on Govern- ment revenues, as is indicated by the table below, which includes also payments on the small proportion of internal debt. 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1. Government debt service (CAA) (CFAF billion) 2.4 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.5 904 8.6 2. As % of Government revenue 5.4 9.3 9.0 9.6 8.6 7.6 10.7 While the CAA has so far had no difficulty in meeting service out of the revenue allocated to it. new sources of revenue had to.ha transferred recently to CAA to enable the latter to meet its obligations resulting from newly rnntrnted Inans (RnAon. etc.) Greater difficultipn may he ex- perienced in the future particularly since other claims on Government re- sources are increasing rapidly. i18 The, Ivry C-as' r1II4n t ,t,rn ~ 1a,-A 4, also accounts for an increasingly important claim on public resources. In the pas ex-1r al ,va FAr nd E t ti uedVVto f4-."-a er large percentage of project costs, including local expenditures and current costin * Moreer the fA-nnc4n of a-1%h"I-alcn-lbutio 4n-s a- as were-.-^- sary did not present a serious problem in view of the relative abundance of because foreign aid agencies are tending to limit the proportion of project cost Lhy WiLL ILance, anu Le LL LrUat L LrAHi UK LULegn aUsisnc s diminishing. The table below shows that Government resources have been conLtvuLuLLg L nL u nug LIaLC UL LIL eUZL UL CAUCLL&LXLy L.LUdLLUCU projects (line 1) and have been absorbing a larger proportion of the budgetary rev- .i:V I U 1967 1968 1969 (provisional) 1 - % 16 18 18 25 2 - % 20 20 25 28 Both proportions are still modest but their increase is a matter of concern to the Government. Besides, the proportion would be higher if they rererred only to external loans and if external grants were excluded. 119. Growing debt service and local contributions to foreign financed projects, have significantly diminished the amount of "freely disposable" budgetary savings since 1968, as is shown in the table below (CFAF billion): 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1. Government debt service 2.4 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.5 5.4 8.6 2. "local contribution" 1.0* 1.0* 1.5* 2.0 3.0 3.8 5.6 3. "Free" budgetary savings 7.0 7.2 8.0 8.5 12.8 8.9 8.8 4. Total budgetary savings 12.5 14.2 11.8 9.5 13.5 19.3 23.4 5. (3) as % of total (4) 56 51 68 89 95 46 38 * Mission estimate. 120. How successful the Government has been in mobilizing capital re-- sources can be measured against the original investment objectives of the Government. These were first set forth in the "Perspectives Decennales 1960-70". 1/ Although the latter did not specify the separate target for 1960-66, the level of public investment realized in that period (CFAF 93.2 billion) was in line with the general trend set forth in the Perspectives.. The formal four-year plan for 1967-70 2/ projected total public investment: at a figure between CFAF 110 billion and CFAF 125 billion, including an "optional tranche". at 1965 prices. In addition. debt repayment was fore- cast at CFAF 22.5 billion. Investment expenditure by the end of 1970 will. probably reach CFAF 130 billion, excluding some items such as construction by various autonomous bodies which, though no estimate is available, may amount to about CFAF 3-5 billion. Taking account of the increase in prices. the minimum objective of CFAF 110 billion in real terms will have been pro- bably slightly exceeded. I/ Perspectives Decennales de Developpement Economique et Social 1960- 1970. Ministhre du Plan. The Perspectives were published as late as 1967. However, they were used as the basic planning document within the Government and revised several times before 1967. 2/ LM Plan de DKvanlnnament Ernnmnue- Sin1 at lrrOturl 107-70* T.n, . -1------0--, 1----------- No. 67-302 of July 10, 1967. - I# n 121. The pattern of financing, however, will not entirely conform to the original plan. Thus, central Government savings are likely to be lower (by 15 percent) and gross external borrowing higher (by 25 percent) than planned. On the other hand, non-budgetary savings, including those of public enterprises will be higher (by about 50 percent). For the public sector as a whole, total external financing is likely to be 53.5 percent instead of 48.5 percent - i.e. 10 percent higher than planned. Financing of Public Investment 1967-70 Planned (maximum Realized As percent at 1965 prices)(at current price)of planned CFAF billion CFAF billion target Budgetary savings /6.1 64.3/a 85 Other public savings 10.0 20.2 200 Public firms 7.5 10.0 133 Internal borrowing 4.8 4.0 84 External grants 16.5 13.5 82 External borrowing (gross) 32.0 40.0 125 Total (gross) 146.9 152.0 103 Debt service - 22.4 - 23.3 104 External borrowing (net) 9.6 16.7 174 Total (net) 124.5 128.7 103 /a This figure includes the amount of debt service paid by the Government (through Caisse Autonome d'Amortissement) .or CFAF 23.3 billion. In the table of paragraph 102 the item for budgetary savings is net of debt repayment. 122- Finanral rpnntireen mobIlized by the nublic ectnr have not all been invested in physical assets. A part has been used to build up reserves at home, therahy hrnaening the credIt basn of the hankina Qvatpm ann alan abroad, within and outside the franc zone. IAn IV. DEVELOPMENT POLICIES A. General Planning 123. Planning in the early years after independence was an exercise largely internal to the Ministry of Finance and Plan. The first planning document was a "Perspectives D6cennales de Developpement Economigue et Social 1960-1970 This document, after a number of revisions, was not made public until 1967. In January 1966 the Presidency assumed both port- folios of Finance and of Planning with two "ministres-delggugs" in charge. These were subsequently made full cabinet ministers. 124. The first plan with full legal force - "Loi-Plan" - was prepared for the four years 1967-70 and was consistent with the guidelines of the Perspectives. It is in principle implemented through three-year public "rolling" investment programs (e.g. for 1967-69, then 1968-70, etc.) and ultimately translated, with revisions if needed, into annual investment budgets (BSIE). 125. The main objectives of the 1960-70 Perspectives and the 1967-70 plan were: Planned Annual Growth Rates 1960-70 Gross Domestic Product 7.3 percent in 1965 prices National Income Per Head 4.8 " " " " Agriculture : 3.8 " " " t Industry : 15.4 " " " Exports : 7.8 " " " The analysis of economic growth since 1960 has shown that these targets are being achieved or closely approximated, and in the case of exports, exceeded. 126. The pattern of planned and realized public investment appears in the following table (CFAF billion): 1960-65 1967-70 1967-70 Croan LevJ* LU*mn L.J0 ureaTn (1.I} \>7 (3.0) AdministratiVe infrastructure 16.7 8.8 iU. Government participations 6.7 i.4 i__ Studies and research 5.3 4.9 6.5 93.2 116.0 130.5 * Provisional Estimates for 1969. 127. Comparisons between forecasts and realizations are difficult because general and price variations by sector are not precisely known. Due account must be taken of the fact that the 1967-70 figures include only estimates for 1970. However, some features emerge. Infrastructure investment in general is ahead of planned objectives, largely because of the construction of the Kossou Dam (started early in 1969) and San Pedro port (started in 1967) and the volume of administrative building, notably in Abidjan. The program for agriculture as a whole has lagged somewhat, especially for forestry and livestock (not shown in table); crop develop- ment has generally been in accordance with the schedule, due largely to the successful implementation of the carefully planned program for oil palm and coconut. The health program is not up to schedule, primarily because of delays in rural health plans. - 51 - 128. In terms of project content there seem to be a good many diffe- rences bet-WeenJ pla-ns -and realization-s Thouigh nn Aarn4la wre atn4l1,m l the Ministry of Planning has estimated that perhaps 20 percent of actual particularly the case of construction works pre-financed by contractors %..£L eampleh aL UL1LLLL.ML = O A. V U -. ArS,*5 J 0 - . C -.Y , - W ' FLW. J v... for road construction, modernization of railways, construction of rural Llospils an prIUimarLLCy scloAl, an-l tASe prvso o CJf sm-al rurallJ I.~.water supply facilities have not been carried out. What is more serious, two ULg proLI -ect star ted JLL LL- those .Lor OanU~ Pe-Jr an' La_J ~A k not been included in the plans. Neither of these projects, and especially NOLud, wfo ruy os dunIneraion when he 17oI-lu pAaLln wo vJLLg pe- pared. While the "rolling" three-year programs were supposed to make adjustments in the plan to take into accounU new projects, only two uL these programs, that for 1967-69 and for 1971-72, were formally approved. B. Agricultural Policies 129. The Government approach to agricultural development has been pragmatic, flexible and decentralized. Government intervention is perva- sive but at the same time quite diverse. Pricing policies have been used for a variety of purposes in different cases: encouraging production, ac- cumulating public savings, and redistributing income. Agriculture invest- ment programs have aimed at creating large state plantations in association with private small holdings. Private foreign capital and know-how has been associated with local and external public capital. Under general guidance of the Ministry of Agriculture a wide array of autonomous agencies have been charged with responsibility for particular crops. 130. By and large these policies have been successful and have con- siderably contributed to the rapid growth of production (6.5 percent per year at current prices) and of exports (11 percent per year at current prices). They would not, of course, have achieved these results if it were not for the generally very positive response on the part of farmers or in the absence of three factors already noted: availability of good land, abundant labor supply, especially in the early years after independence, and favorable world markets in the more recent period. Also problems attributable to either excessive (e.g. rice) or insufficient (e.g. forestry) Government intervention 1/ have arisen. 1/ See Volume II of report - Agricultural Development. - 52 - 131. The most general objective has been, and still remains, to in- crease exportable oroduction. The emphasis was first on coffee and cocoa. 1/ The instrument for this development has been the maintenance of a Govern- ment quaranteed market with a fixed farm price, backed un in the case of cocoa, by extension of credit. A favorable combination of circumstances haQ nermitted so far to keen Government intervention both limited and efficient. There was no shortage of suitable land and these two crops wnre thp first to attract chean foreign labor: foreign markets were at the beginning assured by the special relationship with France; the income of farmerQ wna such that a relatively Iow anarantend nrice wnq an inrontiuy to increase of production; even when the operation of the price guarantee i%n1voA the overnment In fInancial losa it on hannonad thi t th4a A4A nnt occur for both crops at the same time; finally, most of the development, without major investment expenditures. Thus there was very little need for .J4 M fI =Z.J .L Y , "~t~ Ot..'&l s4, _t 6.&l.C S J- LbIC FVJ..L.Ly at first seems to have been to permit as rapid an exploitation as possible. onl 1- - -- a- ef or -.A 4o --A-- to retain a larger proportion of value added within the country. Any coun- the attendant dangers of exhaustion of resources, or conservation of re- sources together with prmto of loa -J - w-t 4-u dage thatI- -4-.J. U DULC UgLILWL W%LatiVuL VL L%Jt."A JJA%uk MOJ.Lu6, W4.1LIM %u ALLrWL LA1C&T foreign investment is discouraged. The correct choice at the correct time LJJ. LWUV UL11CL J.1L9L1y U)UlL VED ABOVE @DDULUcU ALA.mACOAu AAllIULL4LI C since the mid-sixties: diversification and, to a lesser extent, regional development. viver1i1catuiu sougut to Ueveop other crops in Urder to reduce dependence on coffee and cocoa, but not to replace coffee or cocoa with these otner crops. In the case of oil palm, for instance, the agency in charge did not itself plant palm trees where coffee had been grown, and small-holders, though given an opportunity to grow oil palm, were not compelled to stop producing coffee in exchange. The same was true of other alternatives to coffee, such as bananas or pineapple. Oil palm and coco- nut are the mainstays of the diversification policy. The planting program and the construction of six oil mills are proceeding according to a rigo- rous time schedule and under strict technical norms. Since the "oil palm plan" ("plan palmier") was started in 1963 over 40,000 hectares have been 1/ Coffee was first introduced in the last years of 19th century. The first plantations were European but African planters soon developed their own small holdings. Cocoa was introduced in the mid-twenties. Both coffee and cocoa are now cultivated almost entirely in small and medium size African plantations (from a few hectares to a few hundred). 2/ In 1969 forest products became the most important export. - 534 - planted - 3/4 in industrial states and 1/4 in outgrowers plantations,- and nearly %.r^ 4V U.L.Lon haUbencomite to~ vV.L-0 progrLamJ wiibi Q EIB, French and IBRD assistance. The coconut program began in 1967; four industrial blocs of 2,400 ha have been planted. Further plantings of 20,000 ha of oil palm and 12,000 ha of coconuts are underway. 134. Other crops that are being successfully developed, though on a smaller scale, include notably, pineapples, bananas, rubber, cotton and rice. Efforts to develop livestock have been limited and no noticeable progress has taken place so far. In the development or fishing the Govern- ment has not been very active, but fishermen have taken advantage of oppor- tunities to supply an increasing proportion of the domestic market. 135. Regional development was an attempt to redress the balance or incomes in favor of the North. It also implied diversification, at the level of the economy as a whole, since neither coffee nor cocoa could be grown in the North, and thus any development there meant expansion of other crops. Main emphasis was placed on cotton, with the Government subsidi- zing prices to about 15 percent and providing an assured market and exten- sion services. 136. In theory the Ministry of Agriculture has been responsible for central direction and policy formulation while the implementation of programs has been entrusted to specialized agencies. In practice, however, the division of responsibility has not been so simple. 137. The Ministry itself lacks the means necessary to fully discharge its functions. The data essential to proper policy formulation are very deficient. The Ministry also does not have sufficient personnel qualified to make policy and supervise and evaluate field operations. Most of the competent staff, both local and foreign, is either in the Ministry of Plan- ning or in the specialized agricultural agencies. 138. The specialized agencies are many, diverse in size, function and performance. They are nominally responsible to the Minister of Agriculture but in fact have a great deal of independent power and responsibility. The most successful, so far, is probably the SODEPALM group 1/ which is charged with oil palm and coconut development. This organization is remarkable, among other things, because it combines, in typical Ivorian fashion, public and private capital, local and foreign expertise, and includes in its 1/ It includes SODEPALM (Socigtg pour le Dgveloppement du Palmier 9 Huile) which owns the plantations oil palm and coconuts, PALMINDUSTRIE which owns the oil mills and PALMIVOIRE which is the managing and marketing body of the Group. SODEPALM was created in 1963 and the other two in 1969 on the occasion of the implementation of a new tranche of the oil palm and coconut program in the financing of which IBRD participated. - 54 - operations both industrial estates and small holdings. As already noted, the onn hna bean mnitp mtinanful in imnIpmPntina the nrnoram for nlAnta- tion up to the present. A harder test of its performance, however, will be in the mannaamant nf thp nlAntatinna and the marketing of the nrnAot when the planting program has been substantially completed. 139. SATMACI I/ is an entirely public organization in charge of exten- sion, and to ame erent crAdtv fnr enffAe- qn-a And rice. 2/ The aide scope of its activities is demonstrated, for example, by the fact that it emploa onma 2,00 avtenain workero wherana the M n4stry of Aer4ul has only about 35. SATMACI has been particularly efficient in its extension work, on c-as.inn TV faes, hwerr, a number of fnanc4? A4lff4it4a 4a4in from delays in payments by the Government which employs SATMACI under tech- nical asitac cotacts, d4.f4^- .I obtl-ing -4br-n of credits extended to rice growers, and losses incurred in industrial rice U.L.L.LAI. Ie 10V=eLuMut La rWrnJze th Sme aUspM a tOes o u "s ency'. organization and policies need to be reconsidered and is taking steps to redrs isL.nncaL iuain 1 ZA. Ao In other francopyhouic countres ol-- wwauuvayos U -o LP. . L I.L9~ A &LL.JIIJ.A. .WIAI.L %-UWib~&A %6WVW.LWVLJUWU%. 4"0 LP==L& entrusted to CFDT 3/ which is in charge of extension, the handling of credit, ma rkuLng ww inu parE giunig. In recent yease CUus expericed cun- siderable success in developing cotton production by small-holders. The output UL seeu-cutton was J,JVU tuns in A.764Uer, -ivU .ua1 % 1rOZn _n2 30,000 tons forecasted for 1969/70 owing largely to unfavorable weather skJ. --- As--------J.1d1 ..AL TJ-JA- .h -M l 2- J 1 - J this year. uter orgauiationn witn L.mULLCU UU6 06..L FULLAL.y LMpU- tant roles are SODEFEL 4/ which seeks to promote the production of fruits and vegetables; SODEFOR 5/ which has undertaken a modest reforestation program that the Government hopes to greatly expand and MOTORAGRI 6/ which was established to carry out land clearing for both public agencies and private planters but which has had to be subsidized on a considerable scale. 1/ Soci6t6 d'Assistance Technique et de Modernisation Agricole de C8te d'Ivoire, created in 1958. 2/ From rp-ant Information it is understood thAt the rice oneration will be taken out of SATMACI and entrusted to a new agency "SODERIZ." 3/ Compagnie Frangaise pour le DSveloppement des Fibres Textiles. A Qc49t9 nur la fhiral1n%namnt Ae Fri4ta At T.anmen. 5/ Soci9t4 pour le Dgveloppement Forestier. 6/ Soci6tf de Motorisation Agricole. - 55 - 141. While individual operating agencies have had problems which still have to be resolved, the policy of decentralizing the implementation of specific agricultural programs has on the whole been successful. These organizations have helped to increase output and have gained much practical experience. The effectiveness of their operations depend, of course, also on proper tax and price policies and on the quality of applied research, both of which have generally been satisfactory. In the future their acti- vities will need to be coordinated with those of the two newly created regional agencies (for the Kossou-Bandama valley 1/ and for the Southwest 2/), and will have to focus more largely on improvements in food production which are becoming increasingly necessary. Finally, more attention must be paid to strengthening the Ministry of Agriculture to enable the latter to coordinate and evaluate the operations of those many organiza- tions and to set the policy framework within which they must function. C. Industrial Policy 142. The record of industrial 3/ growth is impressive. as already noted in the analysis of the national accounts. From 1960 to 1968 gross indus- trial sales were multiplied by five, value added by four, employment by three. The share of industry in GDP has thus doubled and represented close to 9 nercent in 1968. This performance is the result of both general con- ditions in the Ivory Coast, including political stability, and of a delib- armte nolicv of favoring industry. 163. CovArnment nolicv is founded on liberaliam. The rovernment hAn promoted foreign private investment on a number of ways. The general con- dtin-n anlicn-shla tn induatrial firmi are nuito favnrhlp* the nrnfit tax was 25 percent until 1968 and has been 33 percent since then; any new frm la al4tloA te hay-aminn from th4a rnv Av4ino f4ia vana- ng 4*mat- ments are within limits deductible from taxable profit. Further advantages may be obtaeneA nAe the Tnvatment Code, particularly in the form of a ten year exemption from duties on imported materials. Transfer of profits and canital ahrad in totally frap within the frqn- 7nno and Rnh4prt to mild control for other parts of the world. Thep"overnment so far has not limited employment eif pnmv4Aton or fAragn AfrIAn lnhnv h% Inanavria a. Good basic facilities have been available in Abidjan and in other cities at reasonable prlcaa fAv v%y. w1na produtIo n costf Is hIghk In- dustrial credit is in part granted by the Banque Ivoirienne de Developpement industrial fATTIT as.4^4n"t vaAtina -vginta in 10AA hu tthe enunn (91 1 percent of the capital), French Caisse Centrale (10.1 percent), the central TI A..*-w4s 6AA l06 Uo lAAe dcdrt-A-4- /ADO^1 K& A.. 6 L= am A n Ja Awwo U amaw Jf AHInusLLy 'Lre IefU Ined AicluAde uwanufaLuLrng AA.Lum WAkH RMUahD sales of CFAF 15 million and over. - 56 - bank, a dozen of private local and foreign banks, and IFC (7.1 percent). BIDI provides about 15 percent of the medium term and practically all the long term loans granted to industrialists (mainly in the sector of forestry, textile and oils and fats processing), in most cases to non-African firms. BIDI's operations have developed well. Total assets as of September 30, 1969 were CFAF 3.1 billion or 55 percent more than four years earlier. Finally, in order to promote local entrepreneurship the Government has recently (1968) created a Guarantee Fund (Fonds de Garantie des Credits aux Entreprises Ivoiriennes) with a capital of CFAF 100 million. Its ef- fectiveness cannot yet be assessed. 144. The Government has practically exerted no control on the direction of industrialization in the past. Not surprisingly, industry has developed in two ways: by processing of local agricultural products (timber, oils and fats, cotton, pineapples, etc.) and through import.substitution. The latter has primarily taken the form of processing imported materials and final assembly of imported parts. The results of these developments are that the rate of value added is generally small and that inter-industry relations are very limited. The most important sub-sectors (by value of sales) are timber, textiles, vehicles assembly, canning, grain milling, oils. Metal and chemical production is very small. The only "heavy" industry is the petroleum refinery. 145. While liberal policies have undoubtedly favored industrial ex- pansion, some serious problems have developed in the process. Development of the various branches has been very uneven. The structure of import taxes and import duty exemptions have concentrated manufacturing unduly on the final finishing or processing stages to the neglect of the development of intermediate products. Thus the integral processing of cotton from ginning to finished textiles has been slow to develop. Certain service industries, for which there appears to be a market such as ship repair, have been neg- lected. Secondly, the rather undiscriminating extension of tax and other advantages has also resulted in the development of some Industries which may not be viable in the lone run and has produced "abnormal" .rofits in certain other industries which in fact did not need special measures of nrotection. Most important of all, the development of African enterorise and of Ivorian technical and managerial personnel in foreign-owned enter- nrin has made little progress. There are only two Ivorian industrial entrepreneurs and only 6 percent of the managerial., engineering and similar staff- and 95 nprnent of the middle ataff_ Ara Ivorian. Ivorian private capital invested in industry does not exceed CFAF 300 million out of total estimatedA 4iactmanto nf rrAr A7 h4114nn At tho Ant nf 1QR. The r2nrv-nmant is aware of these problems and its policy of accelerated Ivorization has beeplarge -;A torp suo agntion These probles, c rete susceptible to rapid solution, and only partial progress can be expected t;hA -*& - 4- - thefl -1-. for 10'71-7q . - 57 - V. "GROWTH" AND "DEVELOPMENT" 146. The Ivory Coast's economic "success" sometimes is characterized as a case of "growth" with little or no "development". Presumably this implies that the benefits of growth have not been widely diffused and that some "social" problems have become more acute, notably those related to adunatIn. nublic health. and emnlovment. Ouantitative arowth can thus take place while qualitatives aspects may be neglected. A. Incomes 147. In the Ivory Coast, as in other less developed countries, growth ka unouAtedl- been acco-manied h ahfts in 4ncnme dathri iinn, The Ivory Coast has experienced the development of an important "bourgeois" cas cnsistig no o nly of politicians, civil servants and white ollraa employees in general, but also relatively well-to-do farmers, notably in the coffee and cocoa growing areaes. At th sam tiethr has be-- considerable increase in wage employment both in the towns and in the & ttas -n sharl co..ntnrfa s wih other. A.-ax ecr nnn.Omi es tesae of wages and salaries (including social benefits) in the national income of &I LV%JA.Y %,% 6 hO .S ~ OJV A A.&UJJ& U"LLUO.b &I& L&0 1.W A.Y_ % . 1960 to 38 percent in 1967. For the same years the share of gross operat- iAg nLomePo1& L wLsWLW. Wper ce ntcUU and 7. t pLern, a hU atk ol &nULV.LUa.L entrepreneurs" (i.e. most farmers, small industrialists, craftsmen and .1 ~~~CA . C- Vrapox petty truuets; was UL5 percent mu J".J pere v appt..aLM=U=.Ly, u.LLC annual average income of a wage earner in 1965 was CFAF 300,000 ($1,200), .t ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ --"a entrepreneurs.C. s..J.ii wIereas it was about C ovJUVu I9SJ; %u1 AuLuqVAu CuIreproueurs. L must be noted, however, that African wage earners normally support in whole or in part a large number of close or distant relatives even when tney have adopted a "western way of life". Also the cost of living is higher in Abid- jan and other towns than in rural areas. Tnough, as in most developing nations, the wage earner is on the average better off than the farmer, thit; is not true for Important groups in the Ivory Coast. inus even the small coffee or cocoa planter has a higher real income than the laborers he em- ploys, especially when these are inmigrants. moreover, he is often better off than the low and medium level vage earners in towns. 148. The share of non-Africans in national income is admittedly high. in 1965 the earnings of non-African expatriates, numbering around 30,000, have been estimated as high as CFAF 36 billion or 15 percent of GDP dis- tributed among less" than 1 percent of total population. Whether this is "too much" in the light of their contribution or some "ideal" norm of in- come distribution is difficult to judge. The implication, however, is that average GDP of the African population was around CFAF 47,000 ($190) against an average for total population of CFAF 35,0UU k4ZZ0) in 1965, or, applying the same proportions for 1968, CFAF 58,000 ($240) and CFAF 68,000 ($280) respectively. It should be noted however that the figures quoted above - 58 - are for earnings before taxes. The effects of progressive taxation would significantly reduce the nominal disparities between African and non-African incomes. 149. There are also disparities among regions. Some estimates for 1965 (see table 2.8) show that the level of gross agricultural income per head of rural population for the seven economic regions was in the ratio 1 to 3 between the poorest (North) and the richest (Center-West). The Western and Central regions were 27 percent and 5 percent below the nation- al average, the South, East and South West were 38 percent above and the Center West 70 percent above. The regions with agricultural income below the national average account for 50 percent of total population. Regional disparities have probably widened in the process of growth, and the Govern- ment is particularly concerned about the lagging economic development of the North. 150. Thus the benefits of the rapid growth of the-economy, as measured by the usual quantitative standards, have not been equally shared by all social groups; and the resulting differentials have caused some social and political tension. The problem of reducing income disparities without affecting incentives has then become an active and challenging issue for the Government. B. Problems in Education 151. There were 408.000 pupils in primary schools in 1967-68 or 44 percent of those aged 6-11; 42,000 in secondary and vocational schools, and 2,600 students in the University of Abidjan (of which less than 50 per- cent Ivorians). At the time of independence the respective figures were 238.700 for the primary level and 10,800 for the secondary level; the university did not exist yet. As noted earlier, public expenditures on edueation increand more than threefold between 1960 and 1969. In 1969, they represented 20 percent of budget current expenditure. The efforts by the Government to imnrove the situation cannot be denied. 1%2. Tve1nnment of enation haa been very unAven. Two thirds of the pupils in primary schools are boys, one third, girls. School attendance in towns is two to three timnes h4gher than in the villages. Tn the anth- ern half of the country it is about twice as high as in the north. As a reslt,thelIeracy rate whIch is 9 perceint on the arverage iso 25 pacn in urban areas and 4 percent in rural regions; and it is thirteen times -2. LJ I JI n U11- 1.L&I GLAJ4 '_ - - aftrlS French model, and courses are taught in French only. However, the system LA geraly uadequate and inefficient. rary cA iAoLn s LLs.ue related to the child's environment, teacher qualifications are poor, repetition and drop-out rates are hign. In secoudary education tne drop- out rate and the number of repeaters are also considerable. For example, - 59 - out of the 4,513 candidates that started their secondary education in 1960 only 284 (6.5 percent) passed the baccalaureat examination in 1967. 154. While the impact of the educational effort on economic develop- ment has never been investigated in depth, its net contribution is open to ouestion since too many of those who have become superficially "literate" have remained unemployed despite an unsatisfied demand for qualified workers, while immirant labor. most of it illiterate. has made a considerable con- tribution to the growth of production in all sectors of the economy. It can be debated whether education considered as a consumption aood has gene- rally increased "welfare"; but it cannot be doubted that it has created much frunatratinn and hitternana among the rudimental educated who have received some primary education, among the many who have failed to pass the final secnndary Pemination Aftpr 12 years and more of anhnnl attendanceP als among higher level students. The results have certainly been disappointing onnaidarine thO f4nann?4a reantrena hth internal and ivtrnal anant on education. 155. The Government is now well aware of these weaknesses. An organ- ized and far reaching efor to refor th a-stem is under way much of it will be reflected in the forthcoming development plan for 1971-75 but the ne. "-c~ ~ 14^-. 4s "" ^v,-a,po~1.n4 a"#gA ^1,4e^t- ives well beyond 1975. C. Problems in Public Health 156. Health policy could also be greatly improved by some economic evMalutL.on UL its costD and ubeefts Hweer AWWLgera heaLth conditiUonLAUs have unquestionably improved. All serious epidemics have been eliminated tough enUmi% ULCZ-U n the sL t of Africa, rmat a problem. nor- tality rates, particularly among infants, have sharply decreased. Life expectancy has been raiSed. QuLe apart from tne invaluable DeUefits of better health, progress made in the past has no doubt contributed to higher 'at-o proucti.vitLy. .J. In tne past ke.g. In 6he 1967-7V pLan) the Government has rightly given priority to the development of preventive medical services for the great mass of Une population. in practice, however, this line or action has been only partially followed. Thus the training of personnel at the intermediary and lower echelons (nurses, assistants, etc.) is lagging. While hospital construction in Abidjan has progressed rapidly and an ultra modern institution (Centre Hospitalier Universitaire - CHU) has been opened in May 1970, the establishment of secondary health centers outside the capital is far behind schedule. Lack Of pUDlic health facilities in rural areas is one of the reasons for the rural exodus. Family planning has no place in the Government policy on the grounds that the country's long run economic: potential leaves ample room for a larger population. The costs in- volved in supporting at rapidly growing and "young" population are realized, however, and accepted. - 60 - 158. An actual bias in favor of costly types of curative medicine and a growing regional imbalance in the provisions of health facilities have no doubt impaired the success of health policies. D. Urbanization and Urban Unemployment 1/ 159. Rapid urbanization has far-reaching social implications and very much affects the quality of overall growth. Urbanization, of course, is not unique to the Ivory Coast but it is particularly rapid there and it is heavily concentrated on the capital city. 160. Between 1960 and 1970 the urban population (i.e. in the 20 centers of 10,000 people and more) has approximately increased 2.5 times, i.e. at 9.5 percent annually or three times more rapidly than total population growth. The proportion of the urban population to the total has risen from about 16 percent in 1960, to 23 percent in 1965 and 30 percent in 1970. Abidjan had 120,000 inhabitants in 1955, 330,000 in 1965 and 550,000 at the beginning of 1970, representing a rate of increase close to 11 percent per year. Bouak9, the second largest town had 44,000 in 1958 and 120,000 at the beginning of 1970. Smaller centers have also been growing rapidly, but the share of Abidjan in the total population has increased most rapidly and continuously, and is now 12 percent. 161. The urban population not only has been characterized by a higher natural growth rate, but has been augmented greatly by immigration from rural areas and by immigration from abroad. The higher birth rate in towns is due to the younger age structure of urban population, and the lower mortality rate is the result of better health conditions. Natural growth however accounts for less than one third of urban growth and immigration for over two thirds. Foreign African immigration into towns has been so far more important than immigration of nationals and affects mainly Abidjan. In 1965 about 45 percent of the capital's population in the age group 20-39 years were born outside the country. The high foreign component in Abid- Jan's population inevitably causes frictions. 162. Immicrants into the towns are increasingly motivated by the superior "quality" of life they hope to find in the towns rather than aimn1v by thp Aaarnh fnr emnloyment onnortunities. Anart from thp differ- ences in income levels between urban and rural areas, the many facilities, Qpina An amitgam nta QPAm4n&1v offArPd hv Ahilan ArA fntnra of great importance. The hardships of agricultural work, poor housing lcek nf athe.line and ann4tat fnt414H-aa in niial areana and the nroa- ing dislike of the younger people for the social constraints imposed by rii tr.aA4f-4-".1 structures and 'c-t-"m al1a^ "t~ue~' 4a.-..t rural emigration by both Ivorians and other Africans. -11 T% L1--- _X __-? sJ - %. a - IA ..-,L.-a M"w Uw-J J. 'To"..me TVT 4 K oLUULWU VL FUpU.LAULL LUW6L& AZLLU ALUanizatoU aeC exA-ed An VUmi AV of this Report. - 61 - 163. Complete data on urban unemployment are not available. However, a recent Government census (completed in January 1970) revealed that among Ivorians alone there were 45,000 jobless ("sans-travail" who were never employed, and "ch6meurs" who had had a previous job in Abidjan). This means a rate of unemployment of - perhaps - 25 percent of the male popula- tion of working age In the capital. Unemployment is also a problem in cities other than Abidjan notably Bouakf. Data do not permit comparisons with past situations. There is little doubt, however, that the absolute number of urban unemployed has greatly increased since 1960, and the rate of unemployment is probably higher now than at any time in the past. 164. The causes of urban unemployment are not to be found in depressed general economic conditions. Rapid overall growth since 1960 is clear witness to the contrary. The real causes are the sociological factors just noted and the,irLadequate quality of labor supply and the existence of fragmented labor markets. Urban immigration, insofar as it is not princip- ally determined by job availability, is bound to create urban unemployment. As noted earlier the secondary and tertiary sectors, which account for most of the urban activities, have grown more rapidly than total GDP between 1960 and 1968: by about 15 percent at current prices. However, industry and other secondary activities still constitute a relatively small sector in the economy (20 percent of GDP in 1968), and employment opportunities In both the secondary and tertiary sectors have grown far less rapidly than value of production, particularly in the commercial sector where the growth of "output" is largely the result of greater trade margins, including indirect taxes. Thus the estimated annual increase in employment in Abid.- jan was only 7.7 percent in the period 1955 to 1965 and 6.2 percent in the neriod 1965 to 1970. Durine this time the ponulation in the canital grew about 50 percent more rapidly, and the number of people in the work- ing aam aroung nr8hAblv increased at an even more ranid rate an a reault of immigration. 165. Another general cause of urban unemployment is the existence of framented ahor markets. There are two different aonectA to thin which have already been noted. One is the reluctance of Ivorians to occupy certain john nnaidared phynicallv unattractiv nr/And hnATv nad nr which are traditionally in the hands of foreign Africans. Thus, though there are jhnit- vAnnn imnimn1nvaA TvnrInna in AAd4av% rartain rvaa nf 4onk (4-m- dockers, servants, most unskilled manual jobs) are held almost entirely by other AfrIcans who (especIally Mal4nne) ar aa nm4,dami In small trades. Another problem is, at the other end of the scale, the lack of traieI Ttro%v--1an aiim ,A #.im Pan,*f4 4mi.iIan-J ~i4at 4- VU .1 --ppe echelons. Finally, for reasons which are not quite clear, there are many seistKied JibSuch asfl salesgi W. O*Sa&W cr& ta*le, clerk, etc~. that are still occupied by expatriates. This may be due partly to a lack of su-tab- traiingfac les for Africans, but also, to asignIfIcant degree, to the fact that such jobs provide a second source of income for rmi n the IvorLY L&Co.a st ..&It%V.W WdLyJCt..L6=0 CoastL.. %Wl 6 "AU remain in the Ivory Coast. - 62 - 100. in ne arrican context urbua unemployment may in some spects ue less burdensome than in a developed country. There is not only considerable part-time and casual employment, but in African societies the unemployed also tend to be supported by employed members of their kinship group. A study made in 1965 disclosed that the size of the "household" in urban centers was, within broad limits, determined by the level of money income of those gainfully employed, so that the average income per head in the household was close to CFAF 4,500 per month, a level roughly equivalent to average GDP per head. However, this system of "extended family" solidarity does encourage idleness among the less ambitious and is a disincentive to the more enterprising and energetic. It also tends to:encourage a flow of immigrants in excess of the expansion of employment opportunities. Thus, urbAh unemployment is becoming an increasingly serious problem, especially in Abidjan, to which the Government must address itself. In 1970 the Gov- ernment has undertaken to channel some of the unemployed into a sort of compulsory national service ("service civique") where participants are put to Oarticipate in works of general interest and it has also undertaken to selectively re-train some of the unemployed, particularly young men. - 63 - PART TWO -- PROSPECTS 167. Future growth will be affected by many factors which are suscepti- ble to Government intervention in varying degrees. Developments in the total population and its quality, and the volume and direction of external and internal migration will be an important determinant of progress and the type of problems. including those arising out of urbanization, that Ivory Coast will have to face. The Government should be able to influence but not to determine the size and direction of population movements. The volume and pattern of public investment, another vital factor, will be subject t greater control though nast commitments limit somewhat the Government's freedom of action. In this connection, great efforts will be required to raie nuhlic AavinaR within the constraints net by the growth of revenue Aind the unavoidable increase in current expenditure. The mobilization of income for the nublIr aetnr in likplv to nrodunp nevera strains. It will neAnPA.1- tate some access to private savings and, above all, a larger volume of ex- tprnal ntihlic finnrinv_ The latter 41l hA laraalv rnndiltinned hv awtarrnal factors, but also by the Government's capacity to prepare projects and by its overall ornomic narformane. Privato investment, lArA no well no foreign, is by nature highly unpredictable, but conditions in Ivory Coast pronhh1 vnrant a fn4v Anay- nf nntm4am no tn 4to futirorewth Win0ly, the growth of the yross domestic kroduct will continue to be determined in a large, though perhaps, diminishing measure by the growth of -xorts, thet country's capacity to import, and from the level and pattern of total invest- . . rl Y & . 8 ' - 6 '- .fl -* % -f O I assumed that political conditions will remain stable, that the liberal poli- cie which have sha M..1_ enaterprse anu -AInvestueut will onutium ano I a the existing close relations with EEC and France will be maintained. T DADTTTA'rTAM TD'W?tMC AC T%r'WVDMT'k1AM1rC AV DDA.1DVC S e AVA 3UMM & A L1 *L9MWL flU MMAL1AAULUiflM O VE A LVlJA.U A. General 169. Population trends will be important determinants of future pro- gress for the reasous already out-ined or those Uplied in the Lirst pUrt of this report. Rapid natural growth will necessitate rapidly rising levels of social expendtUure, particuLUrly fur uuLuuiO au health. Continued urbanization will require significant investment, which will, however, have to be kept within manageable limits, and will also necessitate accelerated increases in food production. The tapping of available potential for sue- taiued growth in the production of export crops will require additional labor and, particularly, an appropriate regional distribution of labor mi- gration. Urban unemployment will have to be kept within limits, and measures will have to be taken to slow down urbanization and retrain unemployed workers. - 64 - 170. Very little is known about the impact of rising personal incomes on the birth rate. Parents may feel they can afford to have more children or decide that they will need fewer to care for them in their older age. While official forecasts envisage a decline in the birth rate, this seems unlikely in the absence of a Government program or policy on family limita- tion. Moreover, improvement in public health will accelerate reduction in the mortality rate. Thus the official projections given below may somewhat underestimate the natural rate of growth that can be expected. Percent 1965-69 1970-74 1975-89 Birth rate 5.0 5.0 4.6 Mortality rate 2.7 2.5 2.0 Natural growth rate 2.3 2.5 2.6 According to these rather conservative projections, the age structure of the population will become "younger" with all its implication for expenditures on education, health and other social sector costs. However, they imply also some reduction in the proportion of people of working age. Immigration will continue to add to the total population, though in a measure difficult to predict. As in the past an overall growth rate of 3 percent or slightly more seems reasonable. Total population would then be 5.4 million in 1975 and 6.2 million in 1980. B. Urbanization 171. Urbanization will continue. Current official projections are that 35 percent of total population. or slightly more than 2 million. will live in towns by 1975, and 40 percent or 2.6 million by 1980, as against less than 25 percent in 1965. However, projections of rates or urbanization for 1965-70, particularly for Abidjan, have proved to be underestimated, and forecasts may well be exceeded again even though new factors may have some effect in slowing the rate of urban immigration. The most important of thene factoro will be the onenina un of the Southwent. If this raion does attract the population essential for its development and to some extent hnP_a a now "Ornwth nnla" thern may be nnme d1verinr of the current flow of migrants which is now directed to the cities. While the Government hopes to indura panla Manined hy the Knanon lake to move to the Sonthunt at least part of the displaced population may well prefer to go to Abidjan or narha Rnu21 What'har th r.% ar"mant An A4arnitrADA nararinn tn the cities through efforts to reduce income differentials between cities and rural ~ 4 ara _*4tllamot11sIn - 65 - 172. Studies made in 1967 1/ foresaw the following increase in employ- ment opportunities in Abidjan: Number of Jobs at End Annual Rate of Growth of Period 1965-70 : 6.6 percent 133,000 1970-75 : 5.6 " 175,000 1975-80 4.4 " 216,000 A decline in the rate of increase in employment was projected on the basis of a slackenine in the overall economic growth of the economy and the slow- ing down of the city's development after the rapid changes of its early stages of growth. Even with some decline in rates of urban immigration, population was expected to expand more rapidly than employment opportunities. Anrdinely it wn anticipated that the rate of unemoloyment (male and female) in Abidjan could become as high as 30 percent of working age popu-- lation in 1975 and 40 narepnt in 1980. as niainst an eatimated 25 narrent in 1970. 173. The Government is seriously concerned with this problem. Its main affortm are nriantad rwArAn railnon thp 1vA1 nf Aeur-;tinn nf the lahr force in order to permit faster Ivorization of jobs in the cities. The recent ceatn of a Minat-ry of Vnratinanl Training (MinictIri A& In Formation Professionnelle) is a step in that direction. The Government in also ur-ing private ffirmsa tr 4"na nr AvT%nrl 4,n-a1vi-a rrn4vng. mre than in the past the volume of employment likely to be created will be an and in selecting their locations. The plan for 1971-75 will no doubt give ment. 174. Yet, it is almost impossible to imagine a situation of full aml wae 4rk Mhn enana in th a nawt f4-t7n tf Van uan-ae The% M^noM4 -_. rn-_wa ... --- .7m ir. the o five to tenrer. h .~mcca of inducing a shift of unemployed workers into agricultural production, for axnpe 1.y. dr.as 4 tially .4.4n fs ,. .r "aA .na A n---A..--- Ia -.4 aa..h.&~ U hA O- ~ -- -- --a- -_A k& ---- W prices, may well be considered too high for it might require subsidization of pro-- Auc*lon and/or the foreg-In of - uple by. I-I. __4__ lization fund. The political cost of forcing the unemployed out of towns h.JhaA.TA L0 U S.&Wk k4. m i blhaA ha naO 4 S ma. m0 L . ovuAn~~~~~~~ the mutwgeeusu mn s so sorse of masre may ue ywos ble. Only the Government can dtermine to what extent measures to curb .uban u.nemplo..ment an o sou1A Um - ------41A -44-U --8-1 .-da A ---4-md objectives such as a high rate of overall economic growth. 1/ See Volume IV - Population Growth and Urban Development. - 66 - C. Agricultural Labor and Productivity 175. If total population increases, in accordance with projections, by 55 percent from 1965 to 1980 and the relative share of the rural popula- tion drops from 79 percent to 60 percent, the number of people that one farmer will have to "feed" will rise from 1.3 to 1.75. In the same period production of local food per working farmer will have to increase by about 35 percent. This may seem a modest target, but it will be difficult to attain considering the fact the output of food per head has probably in- creased very little in the past. Moreover, agricultural research on food crops is far less advanced than for industrial crops, and food crops compete with export crops for the use of factors of production, particularly labor. With the rise in incomes, consumption, particularly in the towns, will also change, necessitating corresponding shifts in the pattern of food produc- tion. Increased food requirements could be met by increased imports, but the prospects for the balance of payments make this undesirable, although, of course, some foodstuffs will always be imported. 176. Productivity per man-year in agriculture could be increased by greater labor input. Higher prices for local foodstuffs could induce farmers to increase their labor input, but the already existing difficulty of meeting seasonal peak labor demand under the prevailing agricultural technology seriously limit this possibility. While productivity could be raised by changes in technology including greater use of inputs such as fertilizers, selected seeds, pesticides, eetc., such changes will have to be energetically promoted by the Government and even then are likely to occur only gradually. Moreover, technical progress often requires more, not less, labor per year. A typical example is intensive coffee cultivation. 177. Existing regional income differentials, which could become even wider in the future, will continue to encourage internal migrations from the savanna zone, an area of relatively low productivity, into the forest region, a zone of higher productivity. This movement is expected to be further accelerated by the displacement of people from the Kossou area. Official estimates of regional population shifts are summarized below (in thousands): Area Distribution of Rural Ponu1Ation 1970 1980 Change labor (*50 ( 460) ( -90) F orest 2,030 2,600 570n labor (350) (440) (+90) - 67 - Since without geographical shifts population in the savanna would be 2 million in 1980, what is foreseen is an emigration of some 500,000 persons from the North, while about one-sixth of the increase in the South would be accounted for by foreign temporary labor. If productivity per head in the South remains about twice as high as in the Savanna, the shift of popu- lation shown in the table above would pari passu. raise total agricultural production by 20 percent and the average productivity of the rural population by over 25 percent.: This illustrates the importance of continued population movements to the South though, of course it does not detract from the desira- bility of improvements in the North. 178. The nroblem of labor shortaeea and labor nroductivitv in aaricul- ture will probably be approached by some combination of the measures outlined above. HowAver- one obtacle in matina this nrnhlpm ir thp rplurtAnra nf the Ivorians themselves to work wholly or partly as wage labor in plantations (indniitrial qtntp nr mn11hn1deril. Thp Sndpnalm n1Antqtin"_ fnr AmVq- ple, suffer from a shortage of labor while there is unemployment in the cItIe. Another pnhlam 4n tha 4nt-rancncn un4114ngn%aa nf Twtv4nm io"A_ holders in the Southeast to provide foreign laborers with the small plots of land they w4sh to have to cult4rate thin4r man food or ash crops (notab" rice) while they are employed as wage laborers as in plantations. Finally, foreigners and that of Ivorians in the settlement areas of the Southwest. Tool5S high a~JJ proor.O of foegnr a Ay rise so-a an politica prolerns.U Yet foreign labor will be needed, and this poses the political question of what rights on the land they wUll eveually 170 Irb C - - - - A4n o J n La L ------4o ha th1Je- J-p - an aLL*C LWL=6WLLr, MADM DD A&CL bHLit; L1UFWL6C&1L AtLF .L .LAU LLia foreign immigration will not be restricted, at least to the extent that it will not eACC Vie nAUmber A JUD n06 LAC.L.L U) A4VUiLa-L1 . JPULLaL&VUz foreign immigration is projected at 150,000 over the period 1970-75, the proportion assumes tnat maumotU uL=W-q4UULL,=Lt% UL 6L=15 WUU.U KV L UOU centers, but this seems too high a proportion if Ivorians are gradually to U ULLIal IJUUW HIUW AAAL U U) AULWyL forei ner aLA. iLf UL equiLrIets in agriculture are to be met. The Government should therefore seek to divert grete flwo UZ ir-L0 JJ4&_ ___J..~ -I -_- 1- a greatr WU LuLUB& agA.u.L.u=p AU6au.Ly 6U LLC WUULHWCULe Some physical control of the geographical distribution of foreign immigra- L.L ruture ^r,Dwt' OV. Importantias it is - Decause it affects botn aggregate demand and supply - population will be only one among the determinants of overall economic growth in the seventies. Exports and investment will continue to be decisive factors and they are discussed at some length in the following sections. Exports of goods, taking due account of forecasted world price changes, are projected to grow at between 5.7 and 6.5 percent per year up to 1975 and at between 3.8 and 5.6 percent in the late seventies. This contrasts with the much higher rates of the period 1960-68 (see para. 17). - 68 - If the relation between exports and GDP growth observed in the past 1/ were applied to the future. GDP would grow a little less rapidly than exports. It is foreseen, however, that though still the main growing force, exports will heome progresivelv somewhat less imnortant and that internal ativities notably industrial production will play a greater role. Investment will on the Aagreont ha l dI r tly rirdnct-ive tvhan Hi tha fa a Tha ranlnea- ment of the existing capital stock will claim a higher proportion of gross investment thnn in thP nt a thorafnra thp araa nf net tn onao Invat- ment will decline. Moreover, though the rate of gross investment to GDP is likl t reman4n abnt theo anma no in the vaan an- a 4netment w4ll be of a "heavier" type than in the past, thus raising the marginal capital-output ratio.* This is principally due to t1he large investments 4., t1ne 08Ouproec including its resettlement aspects, the heavy outlays on infrastructure for development, administrative infrastructure and housing. It should be noted in. ftis conneionUSif thatO thefl plan. oIuie, wh*.ich A4A 4-11- *-*~U 1,-L 4 account all the costs of Kossou and San Pedro, assumed that up to 1975 GDP that it implied an improved capital-output ratio. 181. One cannot ignore that growth may be slowed by such factors as nel, a less than optimum distribution of the labor force as between urban and rural areas anq-Al vetweeu regious, an'6Ut, nU LIU 4WL acct:cLLt:L CLPulibL ULL investment in education and health which will have only an indirect and JAng-erm I.LimiLJaC OnL pULUdC~LLL. 101. 1no detaileu projectious o prounctoun by sector 'ave been made by the mission. However, some indication of sectoral growth rates can be derived from projections made for exportable crops, from population pro- jections, from discernible trends in food production, from the detailed analysis of industrial production and from projections for Government budgets. Taking 1967-68 as base period and under average assumptions 2/ output of industrial crops in the period 1970-80 is likely to grow at an annual rate of 5.5 to 6 percent excluding forest products and at between 3.5 and 4 percent including these. Food crops are likely to grow by 3 per- cent, assuming among other things that the desired shift of population to the South take place. Industrial production is expected to grow by 10 per- cent at least per year and Government and other tertiary activities by 7 percent. On the basis of these - and previous assumptions on exports and investment - the annual growth rate of GDP up to 1975 is projected at 6.5 percent per year. By that time GDP would be around CFAF 465 billion or 55 percent above the level of 1967-1968 and GDP per head around CFAF 80,000 ($290). In fact, GDP could be significantly more if the Bangolo iron mine 1/ Elasticity of GDP to exports for 1960-68 (at current prices) is found to be slightly less than 1. 2/ See Volume II, Agricultural Development, Annex. - 69 - and other "enclave" projects were undertaken and already in production, but GN in t1rnw 41 14-n thAt cna he rnrn-r n l lon renlntve to nD- P I either case, GNP 1/ in 1975 will be in the vicinity of CFAF 425 billion and IbM k&ahA ('AV 71 rAn (91m 183. The significance of these projections 4- ^"l, " fl U-A broad 1p- cation of the figures which is that overall growth in the seventies will be A. WW L of- h Un41 t&* L3 4 -a~ - It thn. -ut 7 5 pecn "96 -60 - average figure of 6.5 percent projected for the period to 1975, (and pro- Uak1.7 0 1-JWCL UL&n EIJ. >L1a 8.J,.,4 44L.. ..nLCd a U&L An- I.I LU ..56L0L. bably a lower one for tae fowingw f5ive yeas); s only meanut o illustrate in rugh quantitative terms the change in the pace of growth. This change .s nuo -u6mforsen i nll 6LI u F."u WU6A.LL&u WICLU dM4L&Un. 6LUWL-U Ul t7wr L15 1LLaceu at 8.2 percent for 1971-75 and 6.6 percent for 1976-80. These rates and Lau dea-lJeU sectoral proJet-ioUnU are currently unUer cr.LL review in the Ministry of Planning. Projections of this kind do, of course, overlook annul variations. Tnis i a senrious sortoming because, as is amply demonstrated by experience, short-term movements in exports, GDP and other aggregates are important and practically unaVOGaDale. II. INVESTMENT PROGRAMS FOR 1971-1975 184. Because of important developments in the economy since the plan outlined was completed in April 1968 2/, a thorough revision of the first estimates for 1971-75 is now underway. Current thinking in the Government seems to be that the overall target for public investment for 1971-75 may remain about the same in real terms as was foreseen in the outline whereas the composition of the program will be significantly modified to take into account the full costs of the Kossou project, the expanded program for the San Pedro and Southwest, desirable changes in sectoral production targets, the impact of possible new projects, notably the "Abidjan Riviera" project, and other problems which in the recent period have become increasingly serious, principally that of urban unemployment. Investment targets in the pLan outline are, in round figures: I/ r.T)13 lan not fnt-tny inrenmA nAvmonta n*nrnAA nnia Iona not "" t transfers. 2/ Plan Quinguennal de Dfveloppement Economigue et Social 1971-75 - Prem4l"em ran4aa M4nSt-% of Plan-n-% AdAan A-"41 1040 hereinafter called "plan outline" or "draft plan." - 70 - (CFAF billion) 1966-70 1971-75 1975-80 current prices) 1. Public 130 200 253 t 179%f (1 AN b. participation - (27) (39) 2. Private (excl. lb) 170* 216 273 3. Total (la + 2) 300 388 487 4. Increase over previous 5-year period +75% +30% +25% Estimated from 1966-68 National Accounts. Although the expected increase in total investment both for 1971-75 and for 1976-80 does not appear unreasonable in the light of previous experience, total requirements will need to be revised in view of the fact that these earlier estimates were made at 1965 prices. The expectation that invest- ment will not grow as rapidly as in the first five years after independence appears reasonable since in many respects the latter period was abnormal. Such a decline does not, of course, imply stagnation. With the sort of growth rate of GDP forecast in the plan outline, the ratio of gross invest- ment to GDP in the seventies would be 16-17 percent, or somewhat less than in the sixties. While the mission anticipates that GDP will grow at a rate of only around 6.5 percent, it believes that changes in the composition of both public and private investment will entail a considerably higher capi- tal output ratio and accordingly a rate of investment equal to about 20 percent of GDP. A. Financing of Public Investment 185. Total gross financial requirements of the public sector are put at CFAF 202 billion in the plan outline. This includes the investments of Government and public firms and Government participation in predominantly private enterprises and in the financing of private housing (included under participations in the table above). However, to take account of price increases since 1965, it is safe to set the overall investment target at least at 10 percent or so above the outline estimate, or CFAF 220 billion ($800 million) of which CFAF 30 billion for participation and housing loans. To this should be added repayment of public debt outstanding by mid-1969 which will require about CFAF 50 billion ($180 million) in the five-year period 1971-75 1/. and CFAF 20 billion repayment will be needed for ser- 1/ See Annex Table 4.1. vicing of new debt or a total estimated at some CFAF 70 billion under as- sump ilne ex?.LaR1UU LA%WL %t5 JOLOe .tvj a &9r 6VVLe.L QUIULIL UA. %A.M IV billion makes no provision for repayment of Government borrowing if any trom otner public agteneS SuL M 6LIC %0rrtl aLuLLUuL LAS May La15e proU- lems 1/. Total requirements would thus amount to CFAF 290 billion (or $1,045 million) or an average of CFAF 58 billion $210 million) per year. This compares with an estimated CFAF 38 billion per year during the period 1967-70, or 50 percent more. As in the past, the sources of pubiC financing will be: budgetary savings, public firms' own funds, surpluses of other public institutions, borrowing from the public, external grants-in-aid and external borrowing. Budgetary Savings 186. Because of their wide annual variations past movements of Government revenue, current expenditure and savings provide little guidance for long- term forecasting. In all likelihood such fluctuations will occur again, mainly as a result of movements in imports and exports. They will affect the Government's capacity to finance investment according to planned schedules, so that unexpected short-falls in revenue may, for example, prompt the Gov- ernment to use short-term borrowing which would not be necessary if revenue rose at a uniform rate. Conversely, unexpected increases in revenue may permit anticipated reimbursement of debt or induce an acceleration of cur- rent expenditure. Such important aspects of fiscal policy cannot, however, be taken into account. here. 187. Barring exceptional events, such as a devaluation, current revenue in 1971-75 will increase less rapidly than in the past. By 1968 the ratio of tax revenue to GDP had already reached 21.5 percent (22.5 percent of GNP) as against 17.5 percent in 1960 - a higher proportion than in most countries with a similar level of income per head. Higher ratios, of the order say of 25-30 percent, are found only in some of the most developed countries. It is doubtful therefore that revenue will grow more rapidly than GDP in the future. 188. The composition of Government revenue is expected to change. Direct and indirect taxation should become relatively more important as the proportion of external trade to GDP diminishes. As wages, salaries and industrial profits in national income becomes more important, the direct income tax will yield comparatively more revenue. Taking into account also the higher rates introduced in 1968, the revenue from income and profits taxes should increase at 8 percent p.a. as compared with an annual growth rate of some 6.5 percent for GDP. Receipts from the value added tax are 1/ This type of Government borrowing could be considered borrowing from the private sector. For example. borrowing from the aricultural price stabilization fund is really at the expense of producers of exportable products. - 72 - unlikely to increase more than about 6.5 percent per year. Import tax receints are expected to increase by only 4 nercent per year because the imports of raw materials and equipment goods are likely to rise relative to thnap of hioh1v-taxd cnnqumer PoodA. Revenue from export taxe ann be influenced within certain limits by changing farm prices or the income nrrt4na to t1ho narirl1tiral nrinp aahilizatin fund. A rnwath nf S nor- cent p.a. should be possible without impairing prospects for the accrual to rqPPA ef a4-nahla atnbilimAtinn nrnlinau (app halnw). Rtartina from A 1969-1970 base, total tax revenues may therefore rise at an annual rate of A6- navrant in tho -171-75 na4nd in ran tal-ma' A o aonst 11A nareant in current prices in 1960-70 or perhaps 2 or 2.5 percent points less in con- 180. T L.e, rna of grOwn,th 4,n currnt a,,na,A44 n.1Ini 11 4l U .. I- ly restricted by comparison with the average rate of 10.2 percent (at current prices), in 1960-70 as a whole andAnen 1n. th ~ - half of the decade. This will require a substantial effort, particularly in v.ew t ..a sneeto ra.o a aulayson aA-n.4__ma haelh T .ka .-AS-1U T*1 years the education program undertaken under the recent "Loi-Cadre" will nrnohy annees4-ten an ineao 4n apnA4tures From rrAY 12 U4114n 4, 1969 (25 percent of total current outlay) to 23.5 billion in 1975, or 12.5 ~ y ~ UUJ. L.LWL&L. I~0 & %.. &.L ULI W.L.UjJ..L au L this cost. An effort to overcome the past lag in the rural health program is a sociaa as well as a pultica.L necessity. eApius on halth, wuil-icu are now 10 percent of the total, are to increase by at least 60 percent up to 1975, or by about 10 percent p.a., according to the plan outline. Thus, in order to limit the annual growth of total expenditure to 7-8 percent (equivalent to approximately the real rate oU growth in 190-7U but about one-fourth less than in 1965-70) the Government will have to slow down increases in all other general expenditures to 3-4 percent per year. Inis implies among other things that there will be no major increase in salary rates before 1975. 19u. On the alternative assumptions of a 7 and 8 percent annual in- crease in total current expenditures budgetary savings would amount to either CFAF 121 or 113 billion (see Table below). While a total of around CFAF 120 billion appears obtainable, this level is very sensitive to changes in the underlying assumptions. Thus if expenditures should rise at a real rate of 9 percent and revenues should increase by 6 percent instead of the 6.5 percent assumed, total savings over the period 1971-75 would drop to about CFAF 100 billion. Or, if for example lower than projected export prices made a reduction of 50 percent in export taxes (which yielded an I I V__....,..4n~ .i,~na ,4'.e __ -U,14,. An1%14 JS .,,t 4nn1.,AA.A 4-, .tf Kw&L.. - - -- -J k,- -- a- A.& L.a -w. - * - - -- -. -. -a - . -- projected current budgetary expenditure though it should properly be. p. c i.uddedd i.n "de. r 01" d bt s unle othnrurise_ specified. - 73 - average of CFAP 12.5 billion in 1969-70) necessary throughout the period, total revenue would decrease by more than CFAF 30 billion. Projection of Government Finance (CFAF billion) Average Total 1969-70 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1971-75 1. (a) Current expendi- ture (7%) 54 58 62 66 71 76 333 2. (b) Current expendi- ture (8%) 54 58 63 68 73 79 341 3. Current revenue 75 80 85 91 96 102 454 4. Budgetary savings (a) 21 22 23 25 25 26 121 5. Budeetarv savinas (b) 21 22 22 23 23 23 111 Other Public Savines 191. Unfortunately, the Dlan outline containn no ane&ff4 foranat nf the financial position of public enterprises which it includes in the enter- Prise section of the economy an a whole. From information hnadaA n experience and on some rough projections of their financial position it can be conservatively forecasted that the rombined e-nh flow of thei main puhli4' enterprises will total about CFAF 20 billion during the period 1971-75. The railway (RAN) ahould hp sAhls to anont-a a PAah flvw nf nm ewAr . 5o A billion. The port of Abidjan will probably contribute about CFAF 2 billion, while the nmvwr eqwman- (ECTNa cash flfwy may be est±mned at CwAV 16 t- 2.2 billion per year or CFAF 8 to 11 billion over the period, including a sizeable but not exatly known part naeded to repay los ans-acedA f-- the Kossou dam and which the Government has relent to EECI on softer terms. The Pont and Tenffimun&atin. rem i -A niiKiit.aM (-Aw 1 to 1.3 U 1 lion CPA francs annually or a total of CFAF 5 to 6.5 billion. The total rnntrihtinn nf no'h4r- onrnv4amn ^^iIlA ,^Inaksly he .14-1-.. 4- _pA -r---------------------------P- - -m-6.Ja a&..rea to CFAF 25 billion or so in the following five-year period. On the other hand- some fIfteen or -n amall publ4c enterprf-e or ..-m. bodIes are estimated to run annual deficits of CFAF 2 to 3 billion yearly representing the forecast of budgetary expenditure or elsewhere (see following paragraph). 192. A more important source of public savings but also by nature a h bl A i &&. .MT k . %. %. .J6 V..J 5 La L L .LUJ L. O fund. The size of CSSPPA's future surpluses will depend first of all on - 74 - world prices and the volume of exports 1/ assumed by the mission. It will also be determined by the level of producer's prices. It can be argued that some increase in these prices is needed to provide an incentive to farmers, particularly for cocoa the production of which is to be expanded considerably, and also to reduce disparities between urban and rural incomes and thereby discourage rural emigration - a very important objective as dis- cussed previously. In the last three years 2.966-67 to 1968-69 farm prices of cocoa and coffee were respectively less than 50 percent and 60 percent of f.o.b. prices. It is assumed here, as a working hypothesis, that by 1975 the rates would remain at 60 percent for coffee, but would be raised to 66 percent for cocoa. On the basis of these hypothesis producers prices per kilo in 1975 would be CFAF 115 for coffee 2/ (against CFAF 80 in 1968- 69 and CFAF 95 in 1969-70) and CFAF 114 for cocoa (CFAF 70 in 1968-69 and CFAF 80 in 1969-70), and in 1980 CFAF 110, and CFAF 95 respectively. 3/ 193. Changes in the farm prices of particular commodities should be made onlv after a careful study of their impact on the output of that product and of competing products whose prices are not changed. Unfortunate- ly, too little is as yet known about farmers' response to price changes. Moreover, price increases should be put into effect only if there is a reasonable prospect that they can be maintained for some time. 194. The choice between the level of public savinas to be collected through CSSPPA and the level of producer prices has important economic, social and political consequences that the Government should periodically weigh against each other. The rise in producers prices for coffee and cocoa assumed here would still make it possible for CSSPPA to obtain roughly the same annual volume of gross surpluses as in 1968/69, or CFAF 9 billion. ThiR would be equivalent to some CFAF 7.5 billion net. after various ex- penses and payments by the Caisse have been met. In estimating this amount twn other nnanmntions have been made. One in that marketing nnat nPr unit handled will not increase, which seems reasonable in view of the various artinst undertkepn to l^war nntQ of marketina- nartittlar1v thnap for rnad transport and for the industrial hulling of coffee. Another is that the subveantionsi -~aid b-. (CSSPPA to supp~ort cotton productin will nopt be in ex cess of, say, CFAF 500 million per year. This seems consistent with the ma~tenncef,op-haps e-en a slight increase of the far .pr--- o cotton. 4/ The calculation of the amount available from CSSPPA for fi- 1/ See Volume II of this report - Agricultural Development, Annex 2. --- -1----------- -1....J1 vu LIC atUUpLUL1n UaL. 4UUUL JC pe .u Wu. F&p W.L.L.Lt ue au u uon "quota markets," and 15 percent on non-quota markets at lower prices. 3/ It should be noted that the farm price of seed cotton is now subsidized. It is assumed here that the Government is unlikely to reduce this sub- vention on the ground that it is important for the less developed North. 4/ After this report was substantially completed it was oricially announced that the producer price of seed-cotton for 1970 would be CFAF 40 per kilo against CFAF 33.5) per kilo previously. - 75 - From the annual net accruals of CFAF 7.5 billion, about CFAF 1 billion should be set aside and kept in liquid form (deposits at CAA, for example) so that CSSPPA will be able to counter un expected drops in export prices. In addition, provision should be made for the eventuality that in one year out of five the CSSPPA may have virtually no net profits at all owing to exceptionally bad crops or exceptional declines in prices. Thus for the five years as a whole the Caisse could be expected to contribute about CFAF 26 billion to the financing of Government investments in 1971-75 1/. Finally, it can also be expected that other public financial institutions will be able to contribute: for example, the social security fund (that provides CFAF 1 billion to the investment budget in 1970), and the CAA on its own resources (particularly income on its investments). A total of CFAF 3 bil- lion for the period should be possible. Internal Public Borrowing 195. Domestic funds can also be raised by compulsory borrowing through the FNI-SONAFI system. by borrowing from local banks and insurance companies. and by borrowing from the general public through loans such as the one which took olace for the first time in December 1969. From the past and most re- cent experience and from discussions in Ivory Coast, the mission estimates that the threA sources combined could land to the Government at 1AaAt CFAV 1.5 billion each year. Of this one-third, or less than in the past, may he obtained rhrniah the VNT-qONAVT mechanism and ttin-thirds at more at- tractive conditions for the lenders, from private financial institutions Total iternal~~ Reore an6. fmThe iernlrsurh1ht4ol emoiie drn 0,1 may be summarized as follows: (CFAF billion) -Budgetary savings 120 - L ? J - C4IUOOf -Other public savings: CSSPA 26 Others 3 .LL&LrLL&L. LJ(JLLW.LLL6 U If In 1970 alone the Caisse will transfer CFAF 13.5 billion to the Government. This. however. is the first oneration on such a scale and it was partly decided in view of the large profits accumulated by the CaiLRe since 1966. - 76 - An amount of CFAF 177 billion - rounded to CFAF 180 billion in the following calculations ($650 million) - would represent slightly over 60 percent of public investment and other financial charges as calculated above. A level of public savings (i.e. excluding borrowing outside the public sector) of around CFAF 170 billion or so would represent an average of 8 percent of GDP in 1971-75, or about the same ratio as in 1967-68. External financing would then be needed to cover the remaining gap of CFAF 110 billion ($380 million), or an average of CFAF 22 billion per year ($80 million) in 1971- 75. It should be clear, however, that these estimates could easily be upset by small changes in the forecasts made for particular components of either resources or expenditures. External Financing of Public Investment 197. France and EEC have been the principal sources of external aid so far. Probable minimum and maximum commitments by these two sources for the 1971-75 period are given below (excluding technical assistance): 1971-1975 (CFAF billion) ($ million) France: 14 to 19 50 to 68 grants 0 - 2 0 - 7 .soft loans 10 - 12 36 - 43 other loans 4 - 5 14 - 18 EEC: 17.0 - 20.0 60 - 72 grants 5.5 - 7.0 20 - 25 - Roft lnanR 8.5 - 9.5 30 - 35 other loans 3.0 - 3.5 10 - 12 198. While the breakdown of French and EEC aid by grants and various t"n,a nf lsnna a ^ra Ajff4iilt te foranat- it in almnat rartnx4n that J-_ French grants-in-aid for projects will be progressively phased out, and that the p4oportion of EEC aid in the form of softanhrdlnsw1 increase relative to grants. French loans will be made by FAC and Caisse tal market. EEC loans will come from FED ("prats spSciaux") and from the loans from the French Government and EEC will be 3 percent and on loans from LHe Caise CnLrae, *Jpercent, aU knah UU1LUWS LL "ALW Mwe t 8 percent, the "mix" indicated in the table would mean a weighted average interest rate of close to 1 percent including grants and around 4 percent excluding grants. Multilateral sources other than EEC and the Bank Group will probably contribute only small amounts to project Linancing. Lhe bulk of it will come from UNDP and as in the past will be for pre-investment - 77 - studies and technical assistance. Significant bilateral aid has come in the past from the German Federal Republic, Italy and the United States. These and other countries, such as Canada, will presumably continue to provide capital, but probably in a more irregular way than other major sources. Es- timates of new commitments over the next five years from these countries are subject to a wide margin of error but may be roughly estimated at $50 to $60 million. The terms of this aid are likely to vary widely. 199. The rate of disbursements of public aid in 1971-75 from these sources will be relatively high because of past borrowing by the Government for projects just started. Of the $341 million debt outstanding by mid-1969, only $187 had been disbursed; the other $154 million, including $72 million for the Kossou dam, are to be disbursed in 1969 and the early seventies. Disbursements on French aid are generally rapid and those of FED more rapid than they used to be; it can therefore be assumed that no less than two- thirds of total new commitments from these two sources will be disbursed in 1971-75. For bilateral aid other than that of France disbursements equal to 60 nercent of commitments are assumed. After taking also into account disbursements on commitments made prior to 1971, (notably for Kossou) total disbursement of public bilateral and EEC aid may be estimated at CFAF 67 billion for 1971-75, thus leaving a residual gap of CFAF 43 bil- lion. The annumad nattern of financing on a disbursement basis is shown below: CFAF billion $ million* Tntal nhlir inupatmPnt 290 7Q9 Debt service on past debt 50 180 Debt service on new debt 20 72 290 1,045 Internal resources -180 -650 Balance (1) 110 395 (a) France (66% of new commitments) 12.5 45 (c) Other bilateral (60% of new commitments) 10.5 37 (d) Disbursements by (a) (b) (c) on past co,mI.ULL 12 In GUHRLV.AlCLL69S %A.MMOULA =6t.ef JU* VAVO -67.0 -240 Balance to finance (2) 43.0 155 Round figures. - 78 - 200. The residual amount of CFAF 43 billion ($155 million) would have to be financed by the Bank Group including by disbursements on loans approved before 1971 and totalling $41.4 million, partly by medium-term credits, par- ticularly suppliers' finance, provided that these will not significantly in- crease debt service up to 1972 and will be used only for economically justi- fied projects, and partly by new or largely untapped sources such as the African Development Bank, or through specific programs such as WFP (World Food Program) which, it is understood, intends to commit funds equivalent to $10.5 million for the resettlement of Kossou population. In any case the size of both the total financial gap for the public sector and the resi- dual gap not financed by traditional sources are large as compared to the past and the Ivory Coast may find it difficult to raise the entire amount required from abroad. 201. Financing requirements could, of course, be reduced by delays in carrying out the development program. However, the rapid increase in invest- ment during the past ten years indicates that absorptive capacity has been increasing significantly. Several large programs are already well advanced (Kossou, Southwest, plantations etc.). While some "slippage" in the program may well occur, factors in the opposite direction such as rises in unit cost may increase the need for financing. * Composition of the Government Program for 1971-75 202. Though the first draft of the plan for 1971-75 is being revised it is likely to provide the basis for the final program. The original pro- gram is summarized in the following table (the figures are in 1965 prices and no correction is made here for price increases since then): - 79 - Plan Outline 1971-75 Public Investment Program (CFAF billion) % ($ million) Transport Infrastructure 43.5 21.5 157 Roads (25) (90) Power 23.8 12.0 85 Kossou dam (16.6) Telecommunications 5.7 3.0 21 Urban Development 17.6 9.0 63 Abidjan ( 8.6) Administrative Infrastructure 22.0 11.0 80 Housing for Civil Servants ( 5.9) Education 17.0 8.0 62 Health 8.0 4.0 29 Other Social 0.9 0.5 3 Agriculture 35.3 18.0 130 Oil Palm (11.9) "..-- ( a0 AN Coconut ( 3.9) 1oz. I 9 71 Cocoa (1.3) ougarcaue1 ** Water supply etc. ( 1.5) Participations (industry, mousing utc.) - 80 - 203. The program probably underestimates the requirements for Agriculture as a whole given the growth objectives of this sector. While the provision for oil palm is too large, that for cocoa appears too small. No provision is made for forestry, fisheries, and livestock, which will require some investment, or for new projects such as coffee processing which apparently were not included in the industrial sector either. In- vestments in the social sector have been reasonably well estimated; the provision for education conforms to the "Loi-Cadre" on which a recent Bank loan was based. The large investments in Power of course reflect the large cost of the Kossou dam that will have an installed capacity of 175.5 MW and will cost CFAF 25-27 billion of which about CFAF 10 billion will have been spent before 1971. They can hardly be cut unless some urgent programs for power outside Kossou are postponed. The amount allocated to Telecommuni- cations appears modest: a new estimate awaits completion of a study under- taken by foreign consultants. The target for Transportation was set before the completion of a UNDP transport survey (for which IBRD was executing agency) and, as will be seen, can and should be reduced. Urban Development and Administrative Infrastructure together are expected to require CFAF 40 billion, or 20 percent of the total program, reflecting both serious needs in housing, water supply and sewerage and transport infrastructure, partic- ularly in Abidjan, and also a real desire to beautify the capital city. 204. The fundamental problem now facing the Government, however, is posed by the social and financial implications of the ambitious vroiects undertaken in the last few years: Kossou, San Pedro, and such schemes as the so-called Abidian "Riviera" project. These were orisinally initiated largely outside the plan, and their costs, direct and indirect, are not fully included in the first 1971-75 Plan Outline. In particular, the Plan Outline makes no provision for investments arising out of the construction of the Roamnu dam. The most imbortant of these is the cost involved by the resettlement of up to 130,000 people (but the estimates vary widely from one snrce of information to the other) from about 180 villaen which will be wholly or partly flooded by the lake. This may include village infras- tructure (main atret, wells. nehool. Infirmary atc.. where napded) All or part of the cost of individual houses, supply of food during settlement perod, asch ompenatnion fnr 1naa of Acri-iil-itural hnlAnoa ant vrnnatvitt- tion of the road system in the region. Nor has any provision been made .for othe prject -1s-MaSe -A---,v4 p nr4 ^-4 f-- A-m".A r 4rha A.. nl,a the construction of a beltway around the lake (of possible tourist interest), development schemes in the region. The need for the latter will presumably .3 .- - -4. 01 A43pa ce. A ----- - -- 44 U4 .411 . U1--pend LLn part L on L the propoi on I..U A . %.4.0jJA. %. . F0LOWL&O W&&.L%.LL W.LJ..k..LLVWDWO 6. remain in the area as compared to those who will settle elsewhere, for example in the Southwest. 2u5. Serious errorts to iaentiy such projects and evaluate their cost started only in 1969. One of the disquieting aspects of the whole program, therefore, is that the national plan outline will have to be revised before the studies now begun have provided the basic information. - 81 - it is not clear either what commitments tne Government ["as undertaken vis- a-vis the population involved. Some estimates indicate that the cost of resettlement and road re-construction alone may be in the order of CFAF 20-25 billion ($70-90 million) or nearly as much as the cost of the dam itself. This may not be wide of the mark considering experiences with resettlement in other African countries. Resettlement is an urgent problem since about 20,000 people will have to be resettled by March 1971 and all the others over the following three to five years. Assuming that CFAF 10.4 billion will have been spent on the dam itself in 1969 and 1970 and that CFAF 2.3 billion will be spent for resettlement in 1970, the remaining expenditures on the dam and resettlement in 1971-75 may well be at least CFAF 35 billion, or 7 billion per year. The peak will probably be reached in 1971-72 when expenditures on construction and resettlement will overlap. 206. The autonomous body in charge of the Kossou (Autorit8 de la Vallge du Bandama - AVB) is under a dynamic management and is well aware of the implications of the scheme. It is carefully planning the schedule of studies and operations in anticipation of the problems that are likely to be encountered. However, the strain on financial and human resources will. be severe, and the Government is reported to be considering the possibility of phasing the whole operation over a few more years by slowing down the rate of water intake into the lake or limiting the maximum water level in the lake to a few meters below that of 209 meters originally planned. In the latter case a considerable number of villages could be "saved" tempora- rily or permanently though at the expense of firm power supply. 207. The original San Pedro project, consisting of a port, a city and some road links, was started early in 1968 and will be completed in 1971 at a cost of about CFAF 11.5 billion (of which the financing of CFAF 8.5 billion is already assured). The expanded program includes a further tranche of CFAF 9.5 billion, of which 4.1 billion is for San Pedro proper (port. city) and 5.4 billion for other items including road construction (CFAF 3.8 billion), some agricultural schemes, basic village facilities for a few thousand settlers expected from Kossou. detailed technical and eco- nomic feasibility studies of roads and agricultural projects, and other technical and economic feasibility studies. The bulk of this expenditure is expected to take place before 1972. 208. Altogether the basic investments in San Pedro-Southwest will cont about CFAF 20 billion (872 million). Of this about 50 percent will be snent in the early years of the 1971-75 plan period - i.e. up to 1972-73 - even if some delav- in the schedule are assumed. Directly productive and related investments (e.g. feeder roads) may start in or about 1972-73 and would nrovide for thp dpvelonment of oil nalm. o-onut. oroa. rubber.- forestrV and food crops, and two major industrial projects: a paper pulp mill neAr San PpArn and an iron inn in Banoln (Routh of Man). The lAtter scheme depends on the construction of a transport link to the mine site (300 km north of San Pedrn) whinh onuld he a ninpline (aQ qppma favored by the prospective mining company), or a railway (as the Government seems - 82 - to prefer) that could be used to transport other products such as logs. Other projects include a cement crushing plant to process imported clinker etc. 209. Of the CFAF 20 billion program just outlined, about half will have been spent before the start of the 1971-75 plan. The mission was unable to determine how much of the remaining CFAF 10 billion is included in the plan outline because neither the transport program nor the agricul- tural program gives separate data for the Southwest. There is an amount of CFAF 3 billion included in the plan outline for the city of San Pedro but this does not take into account the intervening increase in costs. 210. To what extent additional projects not now provided for in the plan outline will eventually be included is not known. No details for example, could be obtained on the Abidjan "Riviera" project which is pri- marily designed to promote tourism, and whose total cost could be in the order of hundreds of milli6ns of dollars. The financing of a first tranche of about CFAF 5 billion ($18 million) was apparently arranged in 1969 through a Government agreement with a group of foreign private banks 1/. The plan outline provides only a modest CFAF 500 million for Government participa- tion in tourism facilities which seems vastly out of line with the "Riviera" project, let alone other tourism schemes. A new ministry of Tourism was created in January 1970 which, it is understood, is currently working on a program for 1971-75. 211. While the wisdom of the original decision to launch the Kossou project has been and could still be questioned, the problem for the Govern- ment is now to carry out the necessary resettlement as expeditiously and economically as possible and to maximize the benefits from the project as a whole. Resettlement should be handled in such a way as to prevent an acceleration of rural exodus from Kossou to the towns and to induce a movement to the Southwest. While resettlement entails disturbing changes to the affected population, it also opens up opportunities for innovation. Advantages should be taken of the possibility of carrying out new projects of interest to the displaced farmers: for example, the development of semi-mechanized agriculture in the area around the lake where population density will greatly increase 2/. and the development of fisheries in the lake. The essential preinvestment studies, for which the Government has alreadv engaged consultants. partly with UNDP financing. should be completed as soon as possible. 212. Although the simultaneous execution of the Kossou and San Pedro- Snuthwat prnjents ha nhvionusly created serious financial and human prn- blems, the development of San Pedro and the Southwest has had from the start 1/ ng #.64. rV'AV 1 .2 U1 14nn~ n".,av-h 4n in& 107nl 4nat nA"V htlAgoto ZV J -LA. -1A s .-- -- - ----------- - - 2/ The possibilities of introducing semi-mechanized agriculture should be assessed in the light of the experience with a pilot scheme near Bouakg. considerable prima facie justification. With the progressive occupation of the forest areas of the Southeast, it seemed desirablue to open up the new virgin forest land of the Southwest in order to increase the supply of food, expand the production or traditional export crops, sustain the pace of crop diversification, and compensate for the depletion of the forestry resources of the Southeast. Development of the Southwest appears also to offer opportunities to divert to a new and productive area many of the mi- grants who would otherwise find their way to the cities, particularly Abidjan. 213. In the last analysis, of course, the justification of the large infrastructure investments involved in opening up the Southwest will depend on the rapidity with which immigration and production will develop. Pros- pects for rapid settlement appear to be reasonably good once basic facili- ties are provided. It has been estimated that a reasonable development of agricultural output in the region will require about 150,000 1/ new settlers in the next ten years. Such a target appears feasible even if the inflow of settlers from Kossou is less than the approximately 50,000 expected. For San Pedro itself a population of 100,000 inhabitants is forecast "in the long run." How.rapidly the population objective could be achieved is difficult to determine, but it should be recalled that Abidjan developed from a small lagoon village into a large urban area in a relatively short time. 214. At present it is admittedly difficult to arrive at a total public investment program for 1971-75 that takes into account the many uncertainties discussed above. The mission believes that it is feasible to keep the pro- gram within the available limits of CFAF 190 billion, excluding participa- tions, which is about equivalent to the target of CFAF 175 billion at 1965 prices originally set in the plan outline. A number of measures will, however, have to be taken to change the composition of the plan: (i) The plan will have to provide an additional CFAF 10 billion for Kossou and perhaps another CFAF 10 billion for other,projects, including parts of the San Pedro- Southwest development scheme, which previously were not included in the draft proRram; (ii) Compensatory reductions totalling some CFAF 20 billion will have, to be made on other parts of the program. Possible reductions are: road construction from CFAF 25 to CFAF 15 billion (largely in line with the basic program recommended by the UNDP Transoort Survev): railways (exclud- ing the Bangolo mine link), CFAF 1 billion; administrative and urban infrastructure (in view of heavy inventmAnte carried out in 1969-70), CFAF 2-3 billion, confining such investment to the socially most neteamary narts (water, apuArAOA_ main arteries), and the oil palm program, from CFAF 11.8 billion to CP'A 6.5 billion (a radution of 45&000 hp-nrarp. in the current program offset by 14,000 has in the Southwest); - 84 - (iii) Other programs in agriculture, tourism, industrial participa- tions should be carefully screened and their less urgent components be deferred, if necessary, until after 1975; among others, the programs for additional output of coffee and bana- nas should be reconsidered in the light of the possible impact of marketing difficulties on the anticipated benefits; (iv) The merits of adjustina the Kossou project to curtail the program should be considered; (v) Finally, experience seems to point to the possibility of substantial reductions in construction costs. for example, in roads and school building: these deserve to be fully Inventigated by the Government and made effective for exam- ple through wide competitive bidding among contractors. 215. The foregoing comments are in no way intended to be a thorough critical analyss of the plan projects' iustifiration or of their rP%nP_rHve role within the plan. What is important is to reconsider the whole public investment nrnoram, innTuding all the nrolects currently not included in the draft plan, so as to maintain the total program within the order of maqnn*i.Aa nf nF"Ha rzvall lim4k inAir tarlIr. It will thpn he anant4nl not to undertake projects not included in the plan without accordingly vi4ing the oriina4 l nprnnm. T Ia aismarwhat paradovic1 that so- much talent and time goes into the preparation of development plans within a lds ic4 e - & _ ---,, frane or when a tthe sam e ti4me tea field of what is actually planned tends to shrink dangerously and non-planned oper tito tendI to flurish al. T-U 4 -.fJ ------ US. 44- US -...ana1A. ~C useful to retain the practice of having in the new plan a "hard core" program.i ad a "otina tranChe"L as4LLL was Wdon forLL ULhe 19167-7 -1 _ D. rrlivL DUVIIgS WHU ALVCbLL1CLL 216. Ine draft plan projected privately finUnced investment at &a A 215 billion at 1965 prices (about CFAF 235 billion at current prices), not including Government participations in private enterprises and housing 1/. This would be nearly 45 percent higher than national accounts estimates for the five years 1964-68 and would represent slightly over one-half or total investment, against 60 percent in 1964-68. Private investment is expected to be allocated as follows: I/ It seems that in the plan outline, participation from the public sector is not included in rivate invoatmnt wh4rh la- thereforP_ understood to mean privately financed private investment rather than CFAF billion Percent -Agriculture, forestry fisheries o.-. -industry and mining 81.0 3o.V -Housing 126.0 58.0 215.0 100.0 The low figures for agriculture may reflect an underestimate of investment in the traditional sector which is admittedly difficult to measure. The amount for industry and mining includes CFAF 42 billion, or close to 20 per- cent of total private investment, for two projects alone (CFAF 30 billion for the iron mine, CFAF 12 billion for the paper pulp mill 1/). This in great part explains the expected rapid growth or private investment. Both pro- jects, however, are at early stages of consideration, and it is not at all. certain yet whether they would be economic, whether they would attract sufficient capital, how much public participation might be needed, and it is doubtful whether they would be carried out before 1975 (especially the paper pulp mill) 2/. 217. The Government intends to continue its policy of favoring private capital investment, both local and foreign, granting in general substantial advantages to new firms. However, criteria for extending such benefits, particularly in the form of tax exemptions and tariff protection, will be more strict. More attention will be paid to the employment that will be generated, the willingness of enterprises to train and employ Ivorians and their capacity to remain competitive once "infant" protection has been withdrawn. Export oriented industries and production of intermediate goods will be favored. The Government's policy of industrial participations, particularly through SONAFI, is under review with the aim of making it more profitable. 218. Aside from the financial aspects, the main obstacle to the growth of private investment, particularly in industry, will remain the lack of trained Ivorians and of local entrepreneurship. The Government is well aware of this and efforts to improve education and training are now under- way as noted earlier. but their effect will not be felt before some years. Measures for promoting local enterprise are still too modest and too recent to have a nerious impact in the short-term 3/. and 1975 is a very short term 1/ More recent estimates are CFAF 40 billion and 19 billion respectively. 2/ For details on these and industrial projects in general see Volume III - Industrial Development. 3/ See Volume III - Industrial Development. - RI; - in this respect. A bottleneck is the insufficient number of well trained -varonnal in the min4sva and mnh14, neant-am racrinna4hla 21. T . eiSio --ackow--dgs-te--ffiul- es- ac------overnment and is in general agreement with its policies. In particular it agrees thLat thLe encouragement of export oriented indus tries_ solbeteaS4C strategy for sustaining the pace of industrial growth. Evidence of that factory (CFAF 750 million) to supply both the local market and other West 9%...L LCU .JU* U.5C fl LO L & 6..a .JA D L& %'J& .W U&&-' & J. . . L. textile industry (for which several foreign concerns are bidding) that will export Lu Africa anu Eurupe. Tne paper pulp YLVJ=46, MLIU, W. 6ULtIC, WL"M iron mining project, go in the same direction. Other less spectacular ones are unUer prep4raL1u. nuveVe, tLLeL s a tll. rUm fO lexpt-uLOn uf Lnuus- tries producing for the local market and the projection of demand for manufactured goods in the plan outline seens somewhat Lou cUUervative as it implies an income elasticity slightly over one 1/. 220. Financing problems have two aspects. The most important is the level of private savings and external capital inflows, another is the efficiency of financial institutions. The existing banking system, includ- ing specialized institutions such as BID! is by and Large adequate, and the efforts of the Government to ensure that credit to local small enterprises will be forthcoming should progressively yield results. It is expected that the Ivory Coast will remain within the franc zone and that credit and monetary policies, including the maintenance of relatively low interest rates, will continue. Though improvements are always possible, the mission considers that the financial system is sufficiently efficient and flexible enough to support the growth of private investments. 221. In 1964-68, private domestic savings were high, - 16.5 percent of GDP an average. National savings, i.e. domestic savings net of private factor payments and private transfers abroad, averaged 9.5 percent of GDP during the same period and private gross investment was about 13 percent of GDP. The deficit was financed by public participations and loans and, above all, by external private capital. There is no reason to believe that the already fairly high rates of private domestic savings will increase. In- creases in personal income up to 1975 will not be such that average saving propensity will greatly increase, and direct taxation will reduce income more than in the past. Finally, if government policy towards correcting the widest income differentials is effective, this will certainly induce higher consumption rather than higher savings. It has accordingly been assumed that private domestic propensity to save will not increase or slightly decrease and a rate of 16 percent of GDP has been assumed. 222. The key issue, however, concerns the level of the outflow of private funds. The mission believes that private transfers proper (i.e. 1/ These projections, however, are currently under revision. - 87 - savings out of wages and salaries) will continue to grow at least as rapidly as national income because foreign workers and expatriates are largely motivated by the possibility of effecting such transfers. As for factor income payments by firms, it can perhaps be expected that an increas- ing share of firms' profits will be reinvested if investment opportunities increase with the expansion and diversification of the Ivorian economy and the Government continues to provide appropriate incentives. On the other hand, as private borrowine abroad will probably grow, private interest payments, whose importance has already been noted, will increase. On the whole. factor income payments are likely to rise more or less in tune with growth of industry and commerce and, therefore, more rapidly than total GDP. Thus an inersase of 7 nercent 1.a. for orivate tranqfPrv (CFAP I0 billion in 1968), and of 8 percent p.a. for factor income payments (also abnut CPAY 1n hillion in 1968) has been anaumed. Fven allnwina fnr th difference in projected growth of GDP these are lower rates than assumed in the plan ntline. On the baAia of theme netn nf sagumptinins, rVtrate national savings are likely to total around CFAF 185 billion, as indicated hr th folliu4no f4 anven* 1071-1075 (CFAF billion) Private Domestic Savings Private 1ational Savings 18o 223. As previously indicated, the Government is expected to borrow %A,r 8 ubLlon from the priVate tectWo unug the period and envisages participations in private enterprises and loans and subsidies to house- o.lUS for husi g in an WmuuL Wf %or VA 302.JbiLon, mUing the net govern- ment contribution to the private sector CFAF 22 billion. If total invest- ment in the privatesector is CFAF 2065 billion, including government par- ticipations, new private foreign investment of about CFAF 60 billion ($210 million) will ostensiDly be needed. in the five years 1704-00, gross private long-term capital inflow totalled CFAF 17 billion only. However, the projected private investments that will be recalled, include two projects (iron ore and paper pulp) which are likely to be realized only if there is a matching increase in capital inflow. C. Balance of Payments Prospects 224. The prospects for the balance of payments deserve special atten- tion because exports will remain the major growth force at least until the - 88 - mid-seventies, there are reasons to think that the trade balance will eradually become less favorable than in the past, and ways of financing the external "gap" will become an increasingly important concern of economic onlicv. Fnorts 22. Prniprtinna for ten arounR of Avricultural nrndunta have been made 1/. They show that under two alternatives as to the rate of forest e%letAtion 2/ tntn narinulturAl Amnort wIll he: 1-- 7-- 1-75 1980 (average) Assumption (a) rAr b4114- 92 7 121 A 190 1 Index 100 146.3 168.2 X%D L&Uj .LL L %W.J CFAF billion 82.7 129.4 131.1 A CAAVV AdVd AU* .LUU~~A -0J~ W~' .J .&J . Growth rate p.a. 6.6 0.3 4.0 226. Projections of industrial exports are particularly uncertain. They nave been made on two nypotheses. Une excluiUUg two posse major elements - iron ore and paper pulp - which in any event would come about only after 1975 (probably in 1976-77), the other including those Items. In this case gross exports would, of course, greatly increase but the iron mine would be an enclave project which would contribute comparatively little to growth of GNP and to foreign exchange earnings. Comments on this and other industrial export-oriented projects will be found in Volume III of this report. In the absence of the two large projects mentioned above, the growth of industrial exports will not significantly affect total exports because their share will remain very small. Projec- tions under the two assumptions are essentially based on forecasts of the plan outline with some corrections. Agricultural exports projected above include semi-processed and processed agricultural commodities (cocoa butter, 1/ See Volume II - Agricultural Develp et - Annex 2. 2/ Assumption (b) corresponds to a higher rate of timber production up to 197 followe uy a marka slowoown; assumplon ka) corresponas Lo a slower rate than under assumption (b) up to 1975 but to continue throughout 1980. on ginned cotton, palm oil, tinned pineapples, etc.) which are usually con- sidered "industrial exports" in official documents: industrial Exports 1967-68 1975 1980 (average) Assumption (a) CFAF billion 9.0 17.7 28.1 Assumption (b) CFAF billion 9.0 17.7 47.7 of which: iron ore - - (13.6) paper pulp - - ( 5.0) 227. Whereas the projection of agricultural exports appears to be a reasonably accurate-reflection of the probable trend, the likelihood that industrial exports (and therefore total exports) will be in line with the maximum hypothesis cannot be seriously assessed before two years from now when presumably decisions regarding the relevant projects will have been taken. The following table gives a possible range for total exports (in- cluding some items amounting to CFAF 3.8 billion for 1967-68 which have not been specifically projected and are assumed to grow as all other exports). The following table gives the results of combining for 1975 assumption (a) and assumption (b) for agricultural products, and for 1980 assumption (a) only with the lower and with the higher projection for indus- trial products. I/ TotalL Exports 1967-68 1975 1980 (average) CFAF billion 95.5 145.0 175.0 Index 100 152 183 Growth rate p.a. 6.1 3.8 5.1 -AdAxImum. CFAF billion 95.5 153.0 200.0 Index 100 160 210 Growth rate p.a. 6.9 5.6 6.3 1/ The combination ofE assumption (b) for agricultural exports and the minimum assumption for industrial products would give the lowest result for 1980 (CFAF 166 billion), whereas the same assumption for agricultural products and the maximum one for industrial products would be intermediate (CFAF 186 billion). - 90 - 228. The foregoing projections are significantly lower than those of the nrovicnal nut line nf thp nlan which qQQimPd an annual ornwth rnt- nf 8.1 percent for 1971-75 and 6.6 percent for 1976-80. They are slightly more ontAm4atIc than nvioinu Rank patimatpa 1/ hit- tha navao r4t-h thcQP 4n a% pecting a slowdown of export growth. The main difference between the plan outline and the above proections is in the former's higher fovronat for quantities of agricultural exports, in particular coffee, cocoa, palm oil and cottan At tha time of the mieainn the nian outline ra benae han v4aa and in most cases, it was understood, production objectives were to be set .,t 1 owe,r levels~ Tf seem,n howevera. , that subseqnt res-io - .4 1 1 b. l-4. export objectives at least at the level assumed in the draft plan. The Bank reports, from the projected decline in world prices of agricultural prouui- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~4. V&.L 6LI 4L.LI 110 LiAL1 UrJyILLLIJL *±L&LVUL& U&I.LL VL.LCe of particular species of wood are not expected to go down, the Ivory Coast w.il L ne 'ung run have to maLULe t 10wer qU.LWLuaLCy = L.Ug.L.L.LL6 & u- cline in the average price of timber exports. Imports 229. Imports in the past have increased very much in line with GNP %icor elasticity of imports for 1960-6o was 1.03). Iney will be suUject to contradictory influences. On the one hand, import substitution policies will continue and sucn items as rice, sugar, most vegetables, fiUn, cotton textiles and many light manufactured goods will be locally produced. On the other hand, higher levels of imports relative to iUcoU will resul from continued monetization of the economy, increased demand for consumers goods that cannot be locally produced or produced only on a limited scale (such as spirits, meat, vehicles, etc.), the development of heavier indus- tries requiring expensive imported equipment, and larger requirements for spares and replacement of already existing plant and equipment, and generally from the higher levels of private and public investment projected. The 1971-75 plan outline expected imports to increase significantly less than GD - by 6.8 percent in 1971-75 as compared with 8.2 percent for OuP, and 5.9 percent in 1975-80, as compared with 6.6 percent for GDP. However, the outline also underestimated import growth in 1966-70, partly because its authors could not foresee the increase in import prices in the second half of 1969 as a result of the devaluation, but also because the San Pedro, Kossou and other projects are ahead of schedule and have entailed imports of heavy construction equipment. In the mission's opinion, completion of these projects in the seventies and accelerated industrialization will neces- sitate a growth in imports not slower than that of GDP, that is 6.5 percent at least until 1975. Further diversification of the economy in the late seventies should result in a slower growth (with the qualification noted just below) but this important possibility is not further investigated here. 1/ See IBRD, Memorandum on the Economic Situation and Prospects - Ivory Coast, AF-76a, July 3, 1968. - 91 - 230. For the period 1975-80 the level of imports may eventually be affected by the implementation of two or three new large prolects (iron mine, paper pulp) which would require sizeable imports during the conatruction nhase in the mid-seventies but these are not quantifiable at this stage. 231. Two factors will raise the CFA franc price of imports: the nnvtial deualiintin nf 106) and the aener4l inflatinnarv trend in the developed countries. The latter, however, may also affect the level of orne n-rirpn qint-P all nrniertin am T made in "rnal" teprmn the rhanneq in export prices forecasted mean a change (in most cases a decline) relative to the geneal (and innredirted) onr1P lnuel- What imnort nrican will he in the next five or-ten years relatively to other prices is impossible to nvpd4ct though 4t romilA nn h unransanable to thInk that they mav rise more than other prices in Ivory Coast, thus further aggravating the deterioration in the Ivory ^aat'e towma of tvade ^a2iaA he #-hm nvn4cted VAln-40 Aet-l4na in export prices. It is assumed, however, that import prices will not move Adaiffernl, from othera (artgant rvnv-4 ,oa !2%A Oh n^4aoptn4 % f the volume of imports is therefore made without adjustment for relative price movemnts. The effcen nf the Aeoluation of 11 c1 na"-lanr snlnt4ila to non-franc currencies are also very difficult to predict as practically nothi ng -is knW-. o,~ n h. - nn4. 4 no ^4 14 an4 a - a Apn e A Tue _ no indication, however, that these are, on the average, close to unity. The aAA.nna pWdins raebWr n 1 n1.n-4A.. tWon.in Ma l a tn a..An. a A 4 A further complication is that very little is known of the behavior of which in theory were not directly affected by the franc devaluation. To -Ie Into accUunt the generaly evA1Uent IncLease In Import prices '10 1 1w-u L U%1 .L 6I L.. ILUALI .... A. %A L. JAI. ~ LL .IkIL L . U &. & L. . LJA .LW.L xg the devaluation, it is assumed that the real volume of imports is affected upwarus vy a modust' .J i!L%CLu WV=L LIn L7JrL-ta pteL.UU, U-L&%L LLI1u61 Cqu"L. The growth of imports, on the basis of an income-elasticity of one and the effect of the devaluation just mentioned is therefore projected at 6.5 per- cent p.a., or 55 percent over the period 1967-68 to 1975, plus 5 percent, or a LUal Uicea UA OJ prcent. 2qer v L c ea 232. The balance on non-factor services Linsurance, freight, travel, tourism,, etc.) will continue to be negative. Freight and insurance will continue to be positive as in the past largely because of the transit role of Abidjan for trade of hinterland countries north of the Ivory Coast. Travel and other services were heavily negative. While tourist receipts should develop favorably, the volume of travel expenditures abroad by resi- dents of tne Ivory osst will also continue to increase. un balance and in line with the estimate made by the previous Bank mission, it seems likely that the negative balance on the service account will increase moderately from an average of CFAF 7 billion in 1967-68 to around CFAF 9 billion in 1975. - 92 - 233. Private factor payments and transfers have been discussed already. As in the past, the gross inflawu of thea 4Items A11 % b o4 I mIf4cant by comparison with the outflow of this type of payment. Total private factor income payments 4n 1075 -411 be close to CFAF 17 bill-lon; prvate tra-fers will be CFAF 16 billion. Interest on public debt under one of the possible massmntions fsee p---. 2/401) r-4ll then be CFAF 6 bill1n. Exe-a A4 A .-,A P,. r-n.4 #-a' be very small because of the reduction or disappearance,of public grants- . J.UJA 0-L0- LJUL I. .JLL6 LJJU.. J4 .LJs.Ld. maL.UJL n / A U kne Um & IaJn , l I .. .m >La n l-2. Gross borrowing vy tne public sectour LuouA mu,8;zuu n assumption made earlier, would amount to some CFAF 100 billion ($360 mil- TALiJL1 .LLL1..UU±L5 -JL-1 IUA.. L _LL.LL LIfJL . W.I- L7 ALL 'JUV--1L-L-L I.. ±0L-T jJ4..LJ .L-on/ AHLnc'LHg some MnnUAum tCem boLrowing Uy the GovernmHent TUoal "pL capital (i.e. Government borrowing) is, therefore, assumed to be CFAF 20 U'L.Lon L L L7/IJP,da.L.L1UU6L1 LL1 V.Lew o.L ILLt: hnpn s VLULtjJULL.L600L LLL&.LVW LV&5 large projects, inflow is expected to reach a peak in 1971-73. Amortization on outstanduing debt Lub UL MUKUbL .40 .771 Wil. L e rnr V. UkU U.. U."U L. million) in 1975. Amortization of new public debt would be under one possi- Ut dSUUhpL..ULL UrAr L..J.u vULJ..Vu,L L b L L.LLS L Lu =p UL.=U LUL42L A.VL 1.7 .J to about CFAF 8 billion ($28 million). Amortization payments, however, will reach a maximum iu 19712 on account o0 past debts. Frintay, private capital inflow requirements were assumed to total a maximum of CFAF 12 billion per year ($55 million). Offsetting private capital outflow includ- ing amortization of private debt is estimated at CFAF 5 billion and is based on the relation between gross inflow and gross outflow ouserved in the past (the ratio is 2.4 for 1966-68). 235. The mission's estimates of the balance of payments in 1975 and of the trade and service account for 1980 are summed up in the table below. They should not be regarded as forecasts for the precise years indicated, but only as orders of magnitude that could be achieved at about the time indicated. - 93 - (CFAF billion) 1967-68 1975 1980 1. Exports, goods (assumption (a)) 96 145 166 to 200 2. Imports, goods -79 -130 -180 -180 3. Balance, goods 17 15 -14 20 4. Non-factor services (net) -7 -9 -11 -15 5. Factor income payments (net) -9 -23 (interest on public debt) (-2) (- 6) 6. Balance (3 + 4 + 5) 1 -15 7. Private transfers (net) -10 -16 8. Current Balance (6 + 7) - 9 -37 9. Public transfers (net) A 2 10. Pubic capital (aro) t 20 i 11. A 1r2 t il 1 -a -8 1/ hurrntp biva an tl fo at' ra a 15 . T sup.s pU 1I '7 A, I 1 - aJ0Ll ,L I rLU N.Th~ 236. This projection of the external balance implies a total deficit on current account (liLne 8 of the above table) over the period 1971-75 of about CFAF 120 billion 1/. This means a resource gap, on the assumption of an annual GDP growth of 6.5 percent, of approximately 6 percent for 1971-75 1/ The current balance before private transfers, as it is sometimes presented and as is implicit in the national accounts of the Ivory Coast, would be about half as large. - 94 - as against 2 percent for the five years 1964-68. The projected external gap compares with a projected savings gap of CFAF 110 billion 1/. Ex ante estimates of the two gaps when made as here on independent assumptions are bound to differ. Given the uncertainties of the projection made not too much significance should be attached in this case to the disparity between the two gaps. Aside from the statistical errors, however, such a difference will be corrected ex post by movements of one or more of the magnitudes in- volved. It is not likely that investment will be greater than projected. More likely, exports might grow somewhat more than anticipated and/or imports somewhat less, and/or private factor payments abroad might be less as a result of a more active policy for mobilizing private domestic savings. D. General Conclusions for External Aid 237. In the previous sections estimates of future external aid and capital were made on the basis of what seems to be the maximum possible contribution from the main sources. Assuming that the Ivory Coast will be able to carry out a public investment program of the size indicated and therefore absorb the projected volume of external funds, the terms on which foreign aid should be made available remain to be examined. These terms hinge on the ability of the Ivory Coast to mobilize sufficient re- sources both to provide local contributions for Droiects financed in part by foreign sources and to service existing and future public debt, and to transfer the resources required for external debt service abroad. 238. The level of domestic public resources available for contribution to externally financed projects will depend on the proportion of the invest- ment nrogram that will have to be financed entirely or almost entirely from local public funds, and on the amount required for debt service. 2/ It may he reaPonably n.umd that rplativelv little foreign aid rAn he moilized to finance government participation in industry and housing, for administrative infrastructure and the raettlement of nnniulntion of t-he Rstnnn orea, and for parts of the programs for economic infrastructure, agriculture or education. it is therefore qnite prObable that at least 20 percnt of the total investment program of CFAF 220 billion, or CFAF 45 billion will have to be entirely f4,.ri,.A h, f-h. Q-viva-rnmprit- and/or local pu_b lic a-encies. The resources needed for public debt service will, of course, depend in part, on the terms of new debt- A. -Asr ead met-nd exItIng publIc debtk entails total repayments (amortization and interest) of about CFAF 50 bil- 14o-J& 45. .l 0 .7 .1 J r J'1/ 5.. A- L,f- LAA4lLA- 1 -f..J ..Ua ~ y ~L. .' CFAF 20 billion (see below, para. 238). Thus the total claims on domestic LI L UU.LL ±LL~ I L %,L . XA-% '. L'E .7%J U.L.J.LW&JL CZD jJLt.L.LU M"V.LLLI$O %,.IVl PJ.LUO private investment including public participations (265) less private BBVIg5flo)] = 11U%* savings k.LOJI .LVV. 2/ For practical reasons this includes here interest as well as amortiza- tion. 3/ Service on debt as or August 14, 19069. See Table 4.1 ff. - 95 - resources for debt service and the financing of investments unlikely to en-- liat fnrpian nid mAv amount to CFAF 115 billion leaving about CFAF 65 bil- lion (180 less 115) available for local "matching" contributions to aid wraetei On thin hAmna Pvtprnal anuirra wnuld havp tn finance on the average almost two-thirds 1/ of the cost of projects in which they would nv44nita nf re^1rap- th Pwet nvr%ntr4%n fnr nrh nrniart- w411 unry and will have to rest on considerations peculiar to each case. Thus projects for public enterp,rises and public agencies which have considerable funds of their own may not require such high ratios of foreign financing, while tha that must h finanead npsr-tly from the ourenmnat haet m4 ht nod_ more external aid. 239. In the past the relative local contribution to externally flna:aced projects lhas- been loM - pro-bW1bly at 25 --' ecntI 1970. nu ti proportion has been rising in the past and may well continue to rise be- cause oJ LIf~ tJJe exignce of -isiuin prULovdn forig ca"Id.LI For~6L th future~~ a proportion of external financing not exceeding 60 percent, on the average, seems a reasonaU.L= 4MrUUJJL..LVL&. JLLI= prcia concLLl~Juini hreoeIAa either external aid. should be on at least the soft terms that are described JU~±W IUVL L L L ft ~ I~LJL L~ULLUUL.LULLb bLIOU.LU L3C bUU=WA1U_L;L=4=U This would be possible by increasing the amount of local public savings or by reducing the investment prograM somewuat. As already emphasized the projected level of local public resources is subject to sizeable margins of error. On the whole the assumptions on which it is based are rather conservative and therefore a higher level of public savings and/or internal. borrowing by the public sector is not a priori an unreasonable prediction. On the other hand, though it would not be desirable to reduce the size of the investment program below CFAF 220 billion, its very size relative to past levels, may result in some slippage which would thus permit to release local resources to match external aid during the period 197-ii. Never- theless, the eventuality of having to reduce the program is a real one. 240. In order to assess the effects of the terms of lending on debt repayment, the mission. has used the following illustrative assumptions. Two sets of terms have been assumed: a "soft" one implying an average interest rate on total external aid of 4.5 percent, with 25 years repayment period including 5 years of grace, and a "hard" one with an average interest of 7 percent, 18 years repayment and 3 years grace. In both cases, interest would be paid during grace periods. If the required amount of external aid (CrAF 110 billiion) were obtained in equal annual installments of CFAF 22 billion between 1970 and 1974, the service on this debt in 1971-75 would be very close to CFAF 20 billion under the soft assumption and UkAF 33 billion under the harder one. Hence the above assumed total debt service in 1971-75 of about CFAF 70 billion which would become 83 billion under the "hard" hypothesis. Under the soft assumption, external debt service in 1970-75 will generally be a little under 8-9 percent and will not exceed 1/ 115: (115 + 65) * 0.64. - 96 - 10 percent of merchandise exports (maximum in 1974). But debt service (including interest) under this same assumption would then absorb about 40 percent (70 billion out of 180 billion) of public domestic savings (including internal borrowing). Under the harder assumption, debt service would absorb close to 50 percent of these resources and on the average somewhat exceed 11 percent of merchandise exports. Slightly lower ratios would result if interest on loans were capitalized during the grace period; and this might indeed be desirable in view of the fact that service on existing debt will peak in the early seventies. 241. The World Bank Group may become one of the main sources of external capital for the Ivory Coast. The terms at which it will provide funds will therefore affect the average cost of external aid. The conditions on which aid will be available from various sources will probably be to some extent inter-dependent. While some aid agencies may seek to adjust their terms to the conditions extended by others, this process of adjustment is limited by the type of funds available and institutional rules. In any event, as in the nant- thp Bank will seek to adant itn lending both to the features of each particular project and to the general economic conditions in the Ivory Coast. Because of the fluctuations that affect the Ivorian economy. it will be necessary for the Bank to periodically assess the situation. STATISTICAL ANNEX List of Tables 1.1 Population 1 -2 Rtimates of nermanent wage earners 1.3 Distribution of wage earners by qualification and origin 2.1 National accounts - 1960-1968 9 Nationalac counts - vrigin and uses 2.3 Gross fixed capital formation 2.5 Savings and investment by economic units 2.6 InTcemens in GDP 2.7 Annual variations of GDP 2. Seece daUtaI Lon S. regions 3.2 Exports 3.4 Import of selected items .) 1rea~ U! sUrL.UL± L LU dU 3.6 Main sources of external aid 4.1 External public debt 4.2 rjnuJJIaUeU IUUU.: Zt:VLU paym1Uuv on en tpuv1 1 UL UUUJvo 4.3 Estimated future service payments on external public debt (cont.) 4.4 stlimated luture service pay-Mn t5 on eXter1ail puiC Ueb kvU.IU.) 4.5 Estemated future service payments on external public debt (cont.) 5.1 Government revenue 5.2 Government current expenditure 5.3 Resources of the investment budget (BSIE) 5.4 Tax revenue structure of the investment budget in 1969 (BSIE) 5.5 Expenditures of the investment.budget (BSIE) 5.6 Expenditures of annex budgets 6.1 Monetary survey 7.1 Agricultural production 7.2 Area output estimates for selected crops 7.3 Agricultural prices: farm gate 8.1 Growth of Ivory Coast Industry 9.1 Price variations 9.2 Price variations (monthly averages) 10.1 Selected economic indicators  1.1 .POP[JLATION (Thousands) 1970 ic 1975, 19850 Urban Population 980 1 2,03 2,6LO of which: - Abidjan 330 500L1 820 1,100 - Other urban centers 650 950 1,210 1,450 Rural Population 3,320 3 3,770 _ of which: - Resident population 3,020 3,200 3,350 3,620 - Terqporary agricultural labor 300 350 420 440 and living in: - Savannas 1,460 1,520 I,41C 1,460 - ForestL2 1,860 2,030 2,360 2,600 TOTAL POPULATION 4,30_ L800 ) 00 of which: - European population 30 35 40 45 _1 Current estimate for 1969 = 550,000. ý2 Temporary population included. SOURCE: Côte d'Ivoire 1965, Population, Etudes Régionales 1962-65, Synthèse, juillet 1967. Côte d'Ivoire, Première Esquisse du Plan Quinquennal de Développeient 1971-75, Ministère du Plan, Mai 1968. 1.2 ESTIMATES OF PERMANENT WAGE EARNERS (Thousands) 1960 1964 196 1966 1967 Private Sector 144.9 178.9 186.4 1l 198.2 of which: Agriculture, forestry, fishing 74.8 90.3 91.0 91.6 92.1 Industry and energy 11.1 25.1 27.1 29.4 32.6 Construction and public works 16.3 16.5 15.4 13.1 18.5 Transportation 13.4 16.9 19.0 19.9 21.3 Commerce and services 25.6 30.1 33.9 31.3 33.8 Public Sector 24.9 30.0 30.4 3- 37 TOTAL 169.8 208.9 216.8 221.2 235:.8 SOURCE: Ministere des Affaires Economiques et Financiires, Etudes Economiques et Financie'res, Situation Economique et Financi6re die la C6te d'Ivoire en 1967 and data provided by the Ivorian authorities. 1.3 DISTRIBUTION OF WAGE EARNERS BY QUALIFICATION AND ORIGIN Total Number of Wage Percent of Total by National Origin Earners NatLonals Africans Non-Africans Managerial staff 1,649 1,622 1,616 10.1 9.8 7.1 4.5 3.5 1.5 85.4 86.6 91.3 Technicians 2,947 2,858 2,916 15.7 12.1 1)4.3 2.5 2.8 3.9 817 85.o 81.7 Fcreman 3,265 3,943 4,298 26.3 32.1 34.7 11.1 10.9 10. 4 60.5 57.0 54.9 &nployees 18,943 18,211 18,60 6.6 68.8 68.6 21.9 21.5 21.6 *d.. 9.6 9.9 Skilled workers 27,565 34,709 38,275 69.2 64.1 68.5 30.0 35.0 30.C .8 .8 .7 Apprentices and unskilled workers 57,880 59,908 63,975 33.7 31.6 34.3 66.3 68.3 65.7 .1 - Total 112,249 121,253: 129,681t 47.5 45.8 68.5 45.7 47.5 45.1 6.8 6.7 6.4 Source : Office de la Main d'Oeuvre.  2.1 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS - 1960-1968 (at current pri ces, MFAF billio4 N 19610 1 nZ1 i6, 1 961 1 61 16 170 101 17C l0~'74 57up uu0 17u( 7UU0 V?rovisional) Gross Domestic Product 140.7 159.3 166.1 195.9 237.1 236.8 257.3 274.4 320.4 Less Net factar payments - 1.8 - 2.8 - 4.2 - 7.4 Ö-.7 - 8-7 - 7.9 - 1- 9 Gross National Product 138.9 156.5 161.8 188.5 230.4 228.1 249.5 266.3 310.9 Index of GDP 100.0 113.2 118.0 139.2 168.5 168.3 182.9 193.0 227.7 Annual variation +13.2 + 4.2 +17.9 +21.0 - 0.1 + 8.6 + 6.6 +16.7 Index of GNP 100.0 112.7 116.5 135.7 165.9 164.2 179.5 191.7 223.8 Annual variation +12.7 + 3.4 +16.4 +22.2 - 1.0 + 9.3 + 6.8 +16.7 (1000 CFAF francs) 37.7 41.5 42.1 48.4 56.9 55.1 58.1 60.2 68.3 (US dollars) 154.0 169.0 172.0 197.0 232.0 225.0 237.0 246.0 278.0 Index of GDP per capita 100.0 110.0 111.7 128.4 150.9 146.2 154.1 159.7 181.1 Consumer price index /1 100.0 111.0 109.0 109.0 111.0 115.0 122.0 125.0 /1 Base period: February 1960: index for consumption of "African family". SOURE: Ministåre du Plan: Les Comptes de la Nation 1 960-1965: Les Comptes de la Nation 19 6-167; 1Les WIoIJUs Ue laL NioLn 176 (prov.LoUirej 2.2 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS - ORIGIN AND USES (at current prices; CFAF billion and percent) 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 A_ _ A_ _ kprov.L1one;A Primary Sector 61.0 43.3 8 35.6 88.1 34.2 86.1 31.4 99.1 31.0 -Food crop and Livestock 31.5 42.3 41.7 43.7 41.6 -TnduBtrial and exort crops 2h.8 31.3 35.6 29.6 37A -Forestry 3.6 8.9 8.9 10.8 17.h -Fisheries 1.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.7 Secondary Sector 19.9 14.2 40.6 17.1 50.4 19.6 55.2 20.1 63.5 19.8 -Industry 5.8 L.2 15.6 18.5 20.5 24.9* 7.8 -Mining .9 1.4 1.2 .9 .9 -Construction 6.8 12.8 13.9 15.2 17.5 -Power 2.1 4.9 10.1 11.3 12.2 -Crafts 4.1 5.8 6.7 7.3 8.0* Tertiory Sector 9.8 42.5 111.8 47.2 118.9 46.2 133.1 49.6 157.8 49.2 -rransport 9.9 7.0 19.4 6.5 20.3 7.8 21.9 8.0 24.7 7.7 -Commerce 33.4 23.8 55.6 23.2 58.6 23.0 67.7 24.6 83.7 26.0 -Other services 7.3 5.2 14.9 8.3 16.0 6.1 17.4 7.3 18.1 6.4 -Government 9.2 6.5 21.9 9.2 23.9 9.3 27.1 9.7 31.3 9.1 GDP=Origin-Uses 140.7 100.0 236.8 100.0 257.3 100.0 274.5 100.0 320.4 100.0 PrivatU consumpLtu 7ef Ue) Ae) 1.,7 eU,e4, U.*f Z,1 6. U)*7e.O 538 19U2eU (non marketed) (29.5) (21.0) (38.5) (16.3) (37.4) (14.5) (38.7) (14.1) (39.2) (12.2) Public consumption 14.7 10.5 32.4 13.7 35.7 13.9 38.8 14.1 45.1 1h.1 Gross fixed capital formation 19.1 13.6 43.6 18.4 47.1 18.3 49.8 18.1 58.9 18.4 Stocks 1.3 .9 1.3 .5 5.5 2.1 1.6 .6 3.0 .9 wwmm.+. 1. 0 1,? nl 77 9 19A A 99 R 2 t 1 C1 v-rs4. -. 72 3.6 82.8 32.2 89. 32. 13. 35. Less Imports -37.0 -26.3 -68.8 -29.1 -75.2 -29.2 -80.0 -29.1 -92.4 -28.8 * Estimates Source: as for table 2.1. 2.3 GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (at currert prices CFAF billion) A - BY ORIGIN 1960 % 1965 % 1966 % 1967 % 1968 % Firms/l 11.1 56 27.1 62 27.8 59 28.0 51 28.0 (*) 47 individual entrepreneurs (3.0) (6.0) (6.5) (7.0) 7.5 (Public firms) 1. (3.6) 3.1 43) 5.0 Households 1.0 5 4. d 11 6.0 13 6.5 1d 7.0 12 Public 2 7.1 37 11.7 27 13.3 28 15.3 31 26.0(*) -L TOTAll3 19.1 10 43.6 loe 47.1 100 49.d lo 5d.9 100 Index h4 100 109 114 134 B - BY CATEGORY Cormtruction 12.2 65 24.7 57 26.2 55 28.5 57 32.8 5; Mechanical & Electrical equipnent 4.7 24 13.0 30 15.1 32 15.1 30 19.7 33 Transport equipmænt 2.2 11 5.9 13 5.8 13 6.2 13 6.4 12 TOTAL 19.1 100 h3.6 l00 47.1 100 49.8 100 56.9 100 Changes in stocks 1.3 1.3 515 1.6 3.0 (*) Estinates /1 In::ludirg public firms; inc.LudIrg individual enrepreneurs). /2 Excludirg public firms. /3 May not add up because of rounding. SOURC£ : as for Table 2.1 2.4 SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT - RESOURCE GAP (CFAF billion - Percent) 1960 1961 1962 1963 196L 1965 1966 1967 1968 1. Gross Domestic Investment 20.5 27.4 20.0 30.1 44.9 4.9 52.6 51.4 61.9 2. Less Current External Deficit 1/ +9.0 +1.7 +3.5 +5.8 +10.7 -0.5 -0.2 +1.1 +8.92 3. National Savings (1) 29.5 29.1 23.5 35.9 55.6 44.4 52.4 52.5 70.8 b. Less Net Private transfers 2 abroad -5.0 -5.7 -6.2 -7.0 -8.7 -8.7 -9.8 -11.3 -9. 5. National Savings 2 24.5 23.4 17.3 28.9 46.9 35.7 42.6 41.2 61.6 6. Current Ext+ deficit af+er prkvate transfers +4.0 -4.0 -2.7 -1.2 +2.0 -8.2 -9.6 -10.2 -0.3 7. U U0 r A-el 157. LU*,.1 172.7 27. 2)U.U C 2(7. 24.4 Cu.4 8. Resource gap 1/ (-) as % of GDP +6.4~ +1.1 +2.1 +3.0 +4-.5 -0.1 0.0 +0.i4 +2.8 9. Resource gap 2/ (-) as % of GDP +2.8 -2.5 -1.6 -0.6 +0.8 -3.5 -3.7 -3.7 -0.1 10. National Savings 1/ Dom. Investment x100-% 143 106 117 19 124 99 100 102 114 11. National Savings ?2 /Dom. Investments xl0% 120 85 86 96 104 80 81 80 100 1/ Before private transfers 2/ From Balance of Payments Statistics (IMF) 2.5 SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT BY ECONOMIC UNITS (Current prices; CFAF billion) 16 1( 9 I , 1966 1967 1968 1. Households 2. Gross savings 10.8 20.4 23.2 26.3 (32.0)* 3. Transfers abroad 'V -5.0 -8.7 -9.8 -11.3 -10.9 6/ 4. Gross investment '/ -4.0 -1u.o -12.5 -13.5 -13.5 5. Savinvs surolus +) +1.8 +0.9 +1.5 +1.5 (+6.6) 6. Firms 3/ 1. o 7.yo. 18.q1 2ut c4u. R I). o- (9 nH "' * 8. Interest and dividends paid abroad l/ -1.9 -8.5 -7.7 -7.9 -9.5 6/ 9. Gross investment -9.4 -22.5 -26.8 -22.5 -21.5 10. Savings deficit (-) -h.2 -12.7 -8.7 -15.5 (-3.0) 11. Government 5/ 12. Gross savings 5.0 9.8 11.9 11.5 (18.0)* 13. Amortization of debt 8/ -0.7 -3.9 -3.8 -3.6 -4.9 14. Gross investment -7.1 -11.7 -13.3 -15.3 -24.0 15. Savings deficit (-) -2.8 -5.8 -5.2 -7.4 (-10.9) 16. Total gross savings (2+7+12) 22.9 48.5 60.9 52.7 78.0 17. Total deductions (3+8+13) -7.5 -21.1 -21.3 -22.8 -25.3 18. Total investment (4+9+14) -20.5 -145.O -52.6 -51.3 -61.9 19. Savings deficit (-.) -5.1 -17.6 -13.0 -21.4 -9.2 20. Public transfers and long term capital 6/ 3.5 2/ 18.1 15.0 15.7 23.7 1/ Trsinqfpr of qqinan cm wages h for iqn Africans and bv Pxnatriates. Including financing of investment by "entrepreneurs individuels" Including public firms except as specified under "Government" G/ ross payments abroad of interest and dividends as in "!xternal account" of Nat. Accounts less iureau and dividends paid by "Financial enterprises" and "Administrations". 5/ Including local authorities, Caisse Autonome d'Amortissement, Social Security, Agricultural Price Stabiliza- tion Fund. 6/ From Balance of Payments statistics. From Balance of Payments data. Mission Estimate. Source: As for Table 2.1 2.6 INCRE1ENTS IN GDP : 1960-64 AND 1964-68 (at current prices) 1960 - 1964 1964 - 1968 CFAF Average annual CFAF Average annual billion % growth rate billion % growth rate - Origin of Resources Primary sector 26.2 27.2 9.4 11.9 14.3 3.2 Food crops, livestock & fishing 7.9 4.5 3.7 4.4 3.3 -r-U 1-a 0 Ll UL U.LL -L C export crops 11.5 11.9 10.0 1.1 1.4 0.8 Fore+rr sA 7-1 30.0 7-1 A_ iA Secondary sector 16.1 16.7 16.0 27.5 33.0 15.3 Industry 8.8 9.1 26.0 10.3 12.3 14.3 Tertiary sector 54-1 56-1 17.4 43.9 52.7 Commerce 30.1 31.2 17.4 20.2 24.2 7.2 Government 1.L.L. ...71.7[U U. Ue Goermet 1$ 119 4. 7.0 8.4 11.0 Total increase in GDP 96.4 100.0 13.9 83.3 100.0 7.8 - Use of resources Private consump- Public consump- tin1. 3917.31 17.0 91q -I C! A Gross fixed caDital formation 20.1 20.8 19.6 1q.3 18.3 10.7 Stocks 4.3 4.6 - 1.7 2.0 - Exports 35.3 36.5 15.7 37.5 44.8 8.0 less Imports -28.8 -29.9 16.5 -28.6 -34.2 10.0 Net Exports 6.5 6.7 - 8.9 10.6 - O -M A - .-- rn i-lI I OUrul A.. LU1- ICLLJLt:: C- 2.7 ANNUAL VARIATIONS OF GDP EYPORTS, GIROSS NVESTMENT AND GOVER1=MN ATITT.AVS 1960-1968 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 Variation in: GDP - absolute +18.6 + 6.8 +29.8 +41.2 - 0.3 +20.5 +17.1 +46.0 . -- +1 1 k . 1 ') +'7 n n . ^. 0\ f ~. - C1A ' - absolute + 6.9 + 0.4 + 9.9 +18.1 - 8.8 + 7.4 + 4.2 +25.9 - relative +15.q + 0.7 +19.1 +12.4 -10.1 +10.b + c.3 +31.4 Gross InvestmentZ2 - absolute + 6.9 - 4.7 +10.0 +14.8 + 0.1 + 7.7 - 1.2 +10.5 - relative +33.8 -26.8 +50.0 +49.3 + 0.3 +17.1 - 1.5 +20.4 Government outlays on goods & services.2 - absolute + 5.0 - 3.2 + 0.3 + 3.1 +3.3 + 2.6 + 2.9 +10.0 - relative +39.0 -18.3 + 1.3 +21.6 +18.3 +12.2 +12.1 +37.3 1 Gross fixed capital formation and changes in stocks. 2 Consumer goods and services and capital goods. SOURCE: Minist6re du Plan: Les Comptes de la Nation 1960-1965; Les Comptes de la Nation 1Y0o-1yo, Les Comptes de la nation 1y6u kprovisoire. 2.8 SELECTED DATA ON REGIONS (1965) REGTOT AREA PCPTTTAATITN AGRTTTU.TTR Gross value of Total Agricuhire Food Export agriculture product on Index (lan2) Total Urban Density crops crops product per headt2 CFAF billion ) (UFAF) South (excl.Abidian) 39.730 668.000 170.000 17 8.8 11.0 19.8 39.800 138 East 44,650 286,000 37,500 6 4.7 5.2 9.9 39,800 138 Center 63,000 1,130,000 188,000 18 16.0 9.9 25.9 27,500 95 Center-West 31,100 340,000 73,000 11 4.4 8.7 13.1 49,000 170 West 30.790 h60.000 q0.000 15 2.7 '.9 8.6 21.000 73 South-West 27,000 95,000 18,500 4 1.0 2.1 3.1 40,000 138 North 97,000 810,000 76,500 o10.4 1.1 11.5 15,700 54 333,270 3,789,000 613,500 11 48.0 43.9 91.91 28,900 100 /1 Total is slihtly above "Drimarv sector" production in national accounts £2 Of rural population SOURCE : Ministry of Planning, Service Autonome de l'Action R6gionale, "r6gional dossiers", 1969. 3.1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (CFAF billion) 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1. Exports: goods 44.h 70.5 80.2 83.3 110.0 I x-1 . -.0 on n C.n.f. j .U .LI-1 U [J . r-U.%.j 3. Imports: goods -34.1 -62.8 -68.5 -73.4 -84.2 4.. evie - 7-. -20.J, ?). - .-20 2 2. 5. Government n.i.e (net) 0.9 - 0.1 - 0.2 0.3 6. Balance, goods & n.f. services .. TW 7. Net factor paymentsL -1.8 - 6.6 -8.h - 8.9 9-5 8. Balance, goods and services 1 - 1.6 2.6 - 5.4 9.0 9. Private transfers: credit 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 10. debit - 7.6 - 9.0 -10.3 -10.h, -10.9 11. Public transfers : credit 3.5 6.7 7.6 6.9 7.9 12. debit - 1.3 - 2.8 - 3.3 - 4.1 13. Net transfers -. 7. - . -T7.3 7T 14. Net Private long term capital 4n 0.5 3.1 4.o 15. Public capital: inflour 7.3 6.2 4.6 10.8 17. Net public capital 3.3 0.6 0.1 4.8 18. Net capital 7.4 1.8 4.3 9.8 19. Net short term capital - 1.3 2.7 - 0.1 - 2.1 20. Monetary sectors (net) - 2.9 - 3.1 6.3 - 8.7 21. Errors & Omissions 1.0 6.7 1.4 - 1.4 1l Includes non-distributed profits of foreign firms in Ivory Coast; a credit item of equal size is included under lono term nrivate canital. (*) Debt amortization: 3.0; 3.6; 3.6; 4.9 SOURCE: 1960: as for Table 2.1; capital operations not reported; 1965-68: IMF Balance of Payments Yearbook. 3.2 EXPORTS (Q = thousand tons, V = CFAF billion) 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 (6 months) Coffee Q 148.5 185.7 181.5 1l9.0 214.4 99.8 V 18.8 25.9 30.2 25. 35.9 i6.0 Cocoa Q 62.9 126.4 124.3 107.2 121.5 3h.9 V 8.7 10.9 13.1 13.9 19.4 7.0 Timber Q 672.6 1,566.2 1,568.3 1,839.9 2,175.7 1,188.0 v 6.5 18.5 10.6 21.8 25.8 1J.9 Baaa 72.6 1280137 111-0. 14' 7i.3 11.0 V 1.3 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 1.3 Palm kermels Q 16.4 14.9 9.4 10.1 8.7 4.9 V 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 o.4 0.2 Pineapples, fresh Q 3.0 4.6 6.8 10.0 13.7 6.2 V 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 Pineapples, canned Q 4.2 12.9 19.1 24.2 23.1 12.9 V 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 0.9 Pineapples, juice Q 3.8 7.8 7.9 8.3 8.7 5.8 v 0.2 o.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.3 Natural rubber Q - 2.8 5.5 5.8 7.0 2.0 V - 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 Cotton seeds Q n.a. n.a. n.a. 12.2 14.8 13.9 V n.. n A. n.A. 0.2 A4 . 9 Cotton, ginned Q n.a. 1.7 3.9 8.6 11.3 5.q V n.a. 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 0.8 Diamonds 1000 car. 197.8 199.0 181.1 191.3 181.5 102.5 v 0.3 0.5 v.4 o.4 u.4 0.3 V 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 o.4 0.1 Total-' Q 1,032.1 2,313.9 2,347.0 2,743.1 3,273.8 1,884.4 V 38.8 68.5 77.0 80.3 lo.9 51.9 Adjustment V 5.6 2.5 1.6 2.2 3.5 Total v h.4 71.0 78.6 82.5 108.4 As from customs statistics. 2] Unrecorded exports to neighboring countries and other adjustments. 3/ As in National Accounts. Source : Statistical Bulletins and as for Table 2.1. 3.3 IMPORTS (CFAF million) 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 Food, beverage, tobacco 7,986 23.14 -13,961 21.9 15,570 23.0 12,338 17.1 16,826 19.7 Fuel and lubricants 1,623 4.8 3,21. 5.1 3,350 4.9 3,547 14.9 5,930 6.9 Raw material (of vegetable and animal origin) 1,356 4.0 724 1.1 1,112 1.6 1,632 2.3 1,237 1.5 Minerals 1141 0.14 195 0.3 297 o.L 301 0. 4 1,187 1.4 Semi-finished products 4,142 12.2 9,087 14.3 10,592 15.6 12,378 17.1 12,736 14.9 Manufactured goods for agriculture 299 0.8 526 0.8 392 0.6 459 0.6 542 0.6 Manufactured goods for industrt 6,808 19.9 14,471 22.7 15,290 22.6 15,491 21.5 19,080 22.3 Consumer nanmfactured goods 11,768 34.5 21,557 33.8 21,200 31.3 26,063 36.1 27,9d8 32.7 Total 34,123 100.0 63,732 100.0 67,803 100.0 72,209 100.0 65,526 100.0 Source : as for Table 2.1 3.4 IMPORT OF SELECTED ITEMS (Q = thousand tons; V = CFAF million) loAn loAc 1oAA 1o7 1oAA loo (6 months) Rice (Q) 34.3 77.9 83.2 24.0 47.2 21.6 (V) 867.0 2,218.0 3.114.0 875.0 1,872.0 840.o Wheat (Q) 4.8 63.6 112.8 61.7 64.o 18.6 (V) 162.0 1,311.0 2,317.0 1,283.0 1,372.0 397.0 Sugar, refined (Q) 19.4 31.1 35.7 32.2 36.8 20.4 (V) 950.0 1,335.0 1,207.0 1,233.0 1,417.0 796.0 Cement (Q) 27.4 20.4 (v) 205.0 10.0 (Q) 639.0 1,083.0 1,089.0 1,009.0 873.0 Ww8.0 pe.roum (Q) 166.3 46h6h 6h2.2 661.7 705.6 231.7 (V) 1,743.0 3,240.0 3,344.0 2,994.0 3,318.0 1,029.0 Petroleum products (Q) 21.1 265.0 19h.h (I) 547.0 2,604.0 1,707.0 Fertilizers (Q) 11.8 19.9 26.4 29.7 31.7 20.5 (V) 230.0 352.0 411.0 498.0 495.0 295.0 Cotton textile prints.(Q) 2.7 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.1 1.2 (V) 2,129.0 3,714.0 3,132.0 3,692.0 3,398.0 1,357.0 Chemicals (Q) 4.8 9.1 12.1 15.8 14.2 8.8 Electrical equipment (Q) 3.4 5.7 5.5 7.2 8.9 4.5 Q)r 1,33.0 2,957.0 2,'7,6. 3,4. 4,45. 2,649r L a-0 Cars (Number) 3,109.0 6,707.0 5,029.0 4,979.0 5,899.0 3,179.0 (v) 1,0350A ,993o0 1081t 1897.0 2,238.0 1,220 .0 Trucks (Number) 3,423.0 5,643.0 5,417.0 3,072.0 2,728.0 2,658.0 (V) 903.0 1,858.0 1,806.0 1,.786.0 1,918.0 1,035.0 SOURCE: Statistical Bulletins - ARR DISTRIBUTMDN OF TRADE 1960 1968 Destination of Exports France 65% (ZF) 35% (only F) ZF - h3% USA 1% () 94% 79% Others 6% 21% 2rigin o imports France 7 ( ( ) Other EEC 5% 9 USA 5% ($) 6% 88% 65% Others 12% 35% 3.K MAIN SOURCES OF EXTERNAL AID (CFAF billion) Totals 1 U U 1 7 I 1 7 UV ) 1 7 U 4 17M 1 7 u 1 7 u f 17 U 7 7 7 i) 7 l 7 / 7 GRAF bill. $ mill. A. France (payments) 1. Grants 1.73 1.08 1.66 2.00 0.80 1.47 1.06 0.20 0.25 (0.78)E/ 2. Technical Assistance (pers nnel) 1.57 1.98 2.56 2.54 2.43 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 3. Otherl! 0.07 0.62 1.h3 1.2' 1.30 1.13 1.'8 1.61 2.09 4. Soft Loans (FAC and CCCE) 1.89 2.09 2.39 1.41 2.40 1.94 2.10 2.10 7.22 <'. Total (1-h -.26 5.77 8.0) 7 20 6.93 6.9L 6.8, 6.01 11.66 (1).l00) 6).6 6. Borrowing on French market 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.65 6.65 B. European Economic Community (payments) 1959-1964 1964-1969V 1 WPr/ PPAV hIlli- O 77 .7 in 1/ A7 $ million 39.60 57.20 1958-1969 2. BEIW CFAF billion 2.82 2.82 $ million 11.44 C. Other (estimated payments) 1960-1969 (estimated payments) I . Fedraold Repulic'0 C114 (payments) CFAF billion 2.74 2.74 $ million 11.16 2. USA (payments) CFAF billion 7.00 7.00 $ million 28.50 3. UNDP CFAF billion 2.7 2.10 $ million 10.8 4. IBRD CFAF billion 5.85 5.85 $ million (commitments) 23.80 j Scholarsnips, subsidies to University and research institutes, etc. 2 Commitments. Fonds Europ6en de D6veloppement (grants $87.1 million; soft loans $9.7 million). Banque Europ&enne d'Investissement (IBRD type loans). Commitments: estimated payments by end of 1969 = $50 million. Table h'.1 IVORY COAST - EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1968 WITH ADDITIONS THROUGH AUGUST 14, 1969 /1 Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency /. (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Debt outstanding Additions Sourc December 31. 1968 from Disbursed Including January 1, 1969 - only unfdiburqnd Auu.st 1h. 1969 TOTAT. EYTERNAT. PTTRT.TC Dni' /, /I? A72 99F,2 -192 Publicly-issued bonds ZI 20,725 20,725 - Suppliers /3 A2.164 96,631 1 296 France T 17,35433 1,296 Germany (Fed. Rep. of) /4 - ,451 I srael 2,159 2,159 - Italy 16,773 53,770 - Netherlands 502 502 - United Kingdom 348 348 - United States 5,028 5,028 - Financial institutions 4 13 174 19 764 12338 Germany (Fed. Rep. of) /h 6,557 Italy - - 5,781 United Kingdom 2.300 4,300 - Others 10,000 10,000 - Loans from international organizations 6Q 6 406 17,100 European Investment Bank 170 AA - IBRD- , 17,100 Loans from governments /3 / 96 260 182,916 18,458 Denmark - 2_7 France /3 75,127 88,778 4,861 Germany TFed. Rone o) . I^ -.)A ' c97 R_1Q7 Israel - 2,000 t1,95 W). It- Lebanon 2,800 3,800 United States 12,235 54,134 5,400 af orl g, L-' Ut '~Ad.J'. .LL~~'±~ U LO L,UL J. extnde matrit of over on year -Defined to include the CFA franc which is freely convertib3einto the French -P~ _ 13 Includes debts repayable in French francs or CFA francs which are converted a. Lne excuange rate a devaueu ±n August, 77. /A Includes debts repayable in German marks which are converted at the exchange rate as revaluea in October yoy. Table h.2 IIMV f'COå'AT - WSTTMATED PUTYRE SESRVTE PAYMNTS ON EXTERNAL PUBIC DERT OUT.3TANDING INGLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEER 31, 1968 WiTH AMDITIONS TpmOUGH AUGUST 1), 1969 Debt Repayable in Forein Currency (Tn thousands of U.S. do-lln-a) CREGIN OF' ;ERT0D) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLiUniN AM4ORT!. YEAR uNDISRURSED ZATICN INTEREST TOTAL T91TAL EVTErQKAL P11t51 TPEnrt ande- . 5 4 oh - öd &A t 1970 342p840 26*016 99493 359509 371 309%3 2 14 ti,256 3?.7 1972 290 710 30O08A 11629 410?1 1974 2340625 26o301 109394 360696 9öva 2nr;A3 02P236 13.77 lit ?941 19?6 j850959 20 654 0.370 299m24 l977 i&ao%a30 103 ap UT3*7 23 ma la3 1978 t47i269 17203 60532 23p735 äva 4 ^ PåAd l-d 0C 197 30J066 53 u&,698 21:03 1980 114p731 14,631 4,980 19.611 n98 %W0 å9 12:3 4:1 16&:a4t 1982 88,063 11o222 3.743 14,965 Note: Includes service on all debt listed in Table la prepared April 1, 1970, with the exception of the following, for which repayment terms are not available: Suppliers $ 1,195,000 Financial institutions 3,000,000 Loans from governments 7,403,000 France 3,546,000 Norway 2,520,000 Israel 1,337,000 TOTAL $11,598,000 Table 4.3 IVORY COAST - ESTIMATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMNTS ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT ,N77MO'MAUMTNTIe, «r'hl TT~IITr 7TTnTnT TT>CMM AQ ~Y1 TNlr"~~DVr '21 1 n415Q LrTt UITuANj.DINu UXIJUIJLUINU UNI.LBJDURJE AS>.> J D.C O ER~11 .L, .76 N.L ADDITIONS THROUGH AUGUST 14, 1969 (CONT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) DEPT OUTST CEGIN OF PERI00) PAYMENTS nURING PERIOD INCLUODING A4ORTIm ¥EAR UNOISRURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL PRIVATELYOM[Ln DF? 1969 1329926 125394 4,247 16841 1970 1330966 169692 4,989 21*681 1971 17274 15159 94 20.353 1972 1029115 17.398 4*972 229370 1973 849717 I2Jkå7 4580 t?27 1974 72p030 12*442 4#227 16a669 19759,5 9,020 ,560 12M580 1976 50.568 70898 30062 10#9150 1977 42 670 5,905 2624 8529 1978 36i765 5.706 2253 7J959 ¶9?9 31.059 4,6?1 1,888659 1980 26.388 4.265 1.617 5,882 g98 22n22 3632 1,370 5,002 1982 18490 3091 11594 PUBLICLYV.TSSUED BOM0S 1969 20C725 1,812 1,110 2,922 1970 18913 1832 1020 2.52 1971 17 ä082 1,853 928 20781 1972 159229 2.222 836 38å957 1973 13.007 2.267 720 2,987 1974 10,740 2,312 602 29015 1975 8.428 945 482 1.427 1976 7,883 998 429 1.427 1977 6,485 19053 374 1 1427 1978 5.433 1,110 315 1.825 1979 4*323 1.171 254 is425 1980 3.152 1.234 189 1.423 1981 1.918 601 120 721 1982 1.'16 63M 82 720 1983 679 677 42 720 Table 4h. IVORY COAST - ESTIMATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCIIDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1968 WITH ADDITIONS THROUGH AUGUST 14, 1969 (coNT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) DEBT nUTST (BEGIN OF PERI0D5 PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTIm YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL LOANS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS 1969 6#406 161 63 224 1970 23#345 171 303 ar* 1971 23#174 181 670 $51 19F2 22#993 3q3 918. 1m,3n 1973 22s680 235 t0072 1ti07 19' 4220445 245 14228 1ar3 1975 22.200 935 1m373 208 1979 21.265 995 19354 2.349 19?? 20s270 000o .I290 2s340 197619,220 10120 !o221 2034 1979 180100 1#200 1s140 2#348 180 166-000 l0069 %l3t9 l9s1 150630 1365 986 2.351 12 89 2347 1963 12.815 1.550 802 2.352 14RD 1969 50800 * 30 30 1970 22s900 * 279 279 971 22s900 * 657 g57 1972 220900 220 915 10135 1973 22.680 235 I072 11107 1974 22#445 245 1#228 1473 1975 22#200 935 10373 2s308 1976 21,265 995 1#354 2349 1977 70.270 10050 1290 2t340 1978 190220 10120 1s221 2#341 1979 18.100 200 1.148 20348 1980 160900 1#270 10069 2.339 1981 159430 1.365 986 2P351 19$2 14o265 145n 897 2*347 a983 120815 i550 802 .20352 Table 4.5 IVORlY COAST - ESTIMATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT ^ rjmnnfl.,rnrxn r. ,T,"T MrI 7"r c ~ 1 =. Ac4 -,^ ?Ynr'.vk£"~- -, ,9 n ^Z 0 UU S 1ANDVINU INCLJjUDINU UINAJDURSEJ AS UF UZIDIBER 3 L,D ADDITIONS THROUGH AUGUST 14, 1969 (CONT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) DERT OUTST CgEGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS jURING PERI0 INCLUDING AMORTIm YEAR UNOISBURSED ZATION 1NTEREST TTAL IDANS FROM 1NRRNATIONAL ORCNT7ATTONS EUROPEANl XNVESTMENT BANK 1969 9n6 161 33 1.94 1970 445 171 24 195 197I 274 181 13 194 1972 93 93 3 95 LÖANS FROM G3VERNMENTS 1969 175p512 8p441 30155 118596 1970 1850529 9113 442n1 e1.44* 1971 176.375 10,773 50393 N6 s66 19?2 165*602 129377 q.rån ta..tz 1973 1539226 13#07 SP429i 1974 140,150 13b614 4*0 1.c54 1975 126,535 12,409 4#444 16854 1976 114,126 11,761 3,954 5S715 1977 102p365 11,081 3,404 14,565 1978 91.284 10,376 3,058 13.435 1979 801907 9#464 2,662 12,26 1980 71.443 90Q99 2,ft4 11,39O i91 62.347 70039 1s956 8,995 1982 550308 1.687 .8,168 1983 48,627 60171 1.429 7,600  5.1 - GOVERNMENT REVENUE (CFAF billion) 1960 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Revisod Estimate Estimate Tncome and pmrit Wxto 1-7 J-9 -0 6.< 8.1x 9.0 ]1.9 1. Taxes on property .8 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.6 Taxes on production, consumption and domestic transactions 6.6 14.6 16.7 16.4 16.8 19.8 24l.7 30.6 - Value added tax 4.2 11.6 11.7 11.4 11.6 15.2 17.9 20.9 - Excice taxes 2.4 3.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 4.6 6.3 9.7 Taxen foreim trae 1h9 20.2 21-7 22A 19.8 28.9 29.6 12.1 - Import duties 8.7 11.6 11.7 12.0 11.9 16.1 16.5 17.2 - Export duties 6.2 8.6 10.0 10.3 7.9 12.8 13.1 15.1 Other taxes .6 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.1 0.9 TOTAL TAX REVENUE 24.6 42.7 46.6 49.0 48.9 60.7 69.4 77.7 Administrative fees, service charges, etc. 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.7 1.5 2.3 Government property .6 .5 .4 .4 .4 .6 .4 .4 TOTAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE 26.5 44.6 48.2 51.0 51.2 64.0 71.3 80.4 Source: Treasury Department. 5.2 GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE CFAF billion 1960 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Revised Original Estimate Estimate 1 - GENERAL SERVICES 2.86 9.71 12.63 12.77 13.39 14.30 15.25 15.87 . Presidency and Parliament 1.10 2.64 5.34 3.79 3.98 3.87 3.95 3.55 . Justice .29 .74 .63 .76 .79 .84 .92 1.04 . Interior .95 2.75 2.16 3.55 3.45 3.72 3.92 4.01 . Foreign Aff'airs .03 .68 .85 .88 .94 1.13 1.32 1.76 . Defense .37 2.51 3.12 3.26 3.60 3.96 4.27 4.56 . Information .12 ,39 .51 .53 .63 .78 .87 .95 2 - SOCIAL SERVICES 5.27 10.19 9.60 11.66 12.85 15.33 16.45 19.66 . Public Function .05 .11 .11 .14 .15 .20 .22 .24 . Labor, Social Affairs .14 .25 .24 .28 .30 .35 .140 .48 Education, Youth, Sports 3.28 6.64 5.96 7.20 8.01 9.52 10.66 12.93 Public Health 1.80 3.19 3.29 4.04 4.39 5.26 5.17 6.01 3 - NDMIC SERVICES 5.65 7.35 7.33 8.0 9.19 10.55 11.10 12.93 Agriculture, Livestock 1.09 1.73 1.57 1.98 2.23 2.46 2.64 2.93 Public Works, Urbanisation, Postes, Telecom. 3.73 4.42 4.45 4.57 5.34 6.16 5.69 5.78 Finances, 3conomic Affairs, Plan .83 1.30 1.31 1.45 1.62 1.93 2.77 4.03 .Tourism - - - - - - - .19 4 - NDN-FUNCTIONAL EXPENDITURES 7.82 4.80 4.89 5.06 6.10 d.82 6.63 6.54 Pensions -tc. .27 .16 .37 .22 .15 .53 .09 1.00 Other 7.55 4.62 4.52 4.84 5.95 8.29 6.54 7.54 TOTAL CURRENT EX(PENDITURES 21.60 32,15 34.45 37.49 41.53 49.00 49.143 57.00 Operations of regulari- zation - - - .45 +1.71 + .17 +1.50 +2.57 - GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURES 21.60 32,15 34.00 39.20 41.70 50.50 52.00 57.00 Source : Treasury Department. 5.3 RESOURCES OF THE INVESTMENT BUDGET (BSIE)/1 (CFAF billion) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1. Tax Revenue 7.00 7.70 6.00 9.80 11.50 13.10 2. Other Lo:al Resources - 1.90 3.30 4.36 2.26 15.50 - Transf rs from Stabilization Fund - - 3.00 2.17 1.56 13.50 - Other'- - 1.90 .30 2.19 .70 2.00 3. Loan proceeds 5.70 5.60 5.23 5.73 10.50 15.50 - Loans 2.1 2.40 1.66 3. 1 7.50 11.80 - Suppliers' financirg- 3.50 3.20 3.57 2.22 3.00 3.70 TOTAL 12.66 15.20 16.53 19.89 24.26 *4-10 /1 On cash basis, including suspense accounts. /2 Mainly irternal borroidng by CAA and Treasury. /3 Mostly so-called "conventions a paiemer differe" (CPD), i.e. suppliers' credits and contractors pre-financing. SOURCE: Treasury Department T lPAY W TM Q1PPTTrTTr A'W Tup TMWRR7Mq rTnr.T (Z.TI?) IN 1969 CFAF million 1 - Income and Profit Taxes 1,922 1901 - Taxes on salaries, wages and pensions 640 6.3 - %ontrioution by employerb 1-000 Y,Y - Real property taxes 70 .7 - Licenses 72 .7 - Tax on small trades and craftsmen 5 .1 - Tax on dividends 15 42 - Additional tax on profits 120 1.2 2 - Sales, taxes and excise 7,005 69.5 - Tax on value added 2,920 29.0 - Tax on services 630 6.3 - Tax on tobaccos 430 4.3 - Tax on spirits 650 6.h - Tax on gasoline, etc. 2,300 22.8 - Tax on cartridges 75 .7 3 - Other Taxes 1,152 11,4 - Logging tax 825 8.2 - Reforestation tax 907 0 0 - Duties on diamonds 30 .3 TOTAL 10,079 100.0 SOJRCE: Treasury Department. /1 EXPWNITURiS OF THE I.WgTHENP BUDGET (BSIE)- (CFAF billion) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1970 (Esimate) (Voted) 1. Studies 1.26 1.15 1.29 1.41 2.24 1.55 1.48 2. Sconomic Development 8.73 11.46 11.0 17.30 21.23 23.04 26.21 3. Education t16 .76 1.69 1.48 1.04 2.06 3.09 4. Health and Social Affairs .08 .47 .45 .56 .40 2.05 2.15 5. Administrative Infrastructure 2.43 3.82 2.62 3.52 2.31 3.92 3.82 6. Transfers and Interventions 2 - - - - 5.99 7.35 Estim ted acpenditures 12.66 17.67 17.09 24.27 27.22 38.61 44.10 of which Actual Ecpenditures (3 12.66) (15.20) (6.53) (19.89) (24.26) /1 Excluding investments firanced by foreign grants, kept eatirely outside the budget. /2 Sime 1970. /3 On cash basis, including s-pee acount. SOURCE: Treasury Departmert. 5.6 EXPENDITUR3 OF ANNEX BUDGETS (CFAF MILLION) 1 (Estimate) 1955 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Current Investmnt Current Investment Current Inrvestment Current Investment Current Investment Current Irestment 1. Wharf de Seasandra 76 - 126 - 135 - 135 - 90 10 - 2. Direction d.u Materiel des Travaux Publics 386 185 396 200 396 200 405 202 399 271. 391 223 3. R.T.I. - A.I.P. 389 - 621 - 658 - 648 - 72!> 680 120 4. Part d'Abidjan 1,o68 500 1,o66 581 1,112 627 1,366 69 758 744 881 785 5. Centre Hospitalier Universitaire - - - - 80 - 89 - 211a -236 - 6. Postes et Telecoaunications 1,631 497 1,878 679 2,819 925 2,913 877 3,256 958 2, 746 849 TOTAL 3,550 1,182 4,087 1, 46o 5,2001,752 5,556 1,3148 5,442 1,983 5,044 ,977 /1 Revised estinates for 1965-69, 1970 origLnal estimate. SOURCE: Ministay of Krane. 6.1 MDNETARY SURVEY (Situation at end of year) (CFAF billion) 1962 1963 196L 196q 1966 1967 1968 1969 (June 30, Foreign Assets (net) 5.82 8.63 15.53 15.65 19.06 14.h5 22.36 25.50 Domestic credit 26.44 27.72 38.24 35.42 38.18 48.02 55.18 57.90 Claims on Government (net) -3.14 -8.82 -9.09 -9.31 -9.99 -6.75 -10.33 -11.30 Claims on Private Sector 29_58 36_5h 47.33 4.72 48.17 54 7 65.51 69.20 Total = Assets = Liabilities 32.26 36.35 53.77 51.07 57.24 62.47 77.95 83.4o Money 29.60 34.30 4o.64 42.31 46.43 48.52 59.11 61.20 Currency 17.94 20.88 23.43 22.85 26.36 27.60 30.60 29.19 Demand deposits/. 11.66 13.2 17.21 19.46 20.07 20.92 28.51 32.01 Quasi-Money 2.19 2.23 8.92 6.62 7.5h 9.71 13.h4 18.18 Other items (net) 0.48 -0.18 1.21 2.15 3.28 4.24 4.99 5.15 index ob Money Sunil (Money & Quasi Money) 100 115 156 154 170 183 228 260 Index of GDP (at current prices) 100 118 13 143 155 164 193 n.a. /1 In Banks and Postal checking accounts. SOURCE : IFS and Bulletin of BCEAO  7.1 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (Thousands of metric tons) ACITTJA PLAN TARGETS 1960 1965 1966 1967 19681 197012 2 2 19802 Paddy 160 250 275 3h0 365 395 613 750 Mil and roghm-2 1.6 1.7 1.8 c92 e8 65 Fonio 5 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 Maize 147 180 195 220 227 207 266 329 Yams 1,150 1,300 1,320 1,350 1,391 1,h32 1,;78 1,790 Cassava h50 500 515 520 536 562 635 714 Plantain 490 600 615 620 639 674 760 855 Taro 135 160 160 162 167 172 185 200 Sweet Potatoes 18 20 20 21 22 22 25 28 Pens 12 13 il 15 16 15 17 20 Fruits and vegetables 100 120 12h 128 132 160 210 280 Cattle/5 28 39 hl 46 46 30 38 h5 Sneep and goats3 276 hoh 60 h30 h30 600 300 1,10û Pigs75 60 67/h 101 127 127 87 103 127 poultrylO 5 6 7 8 8 8 11 15 Hunting 23 23 23 23 23 18 16 14 Coffee 137 213 256 157 272 230 265 360 Cocoa 85 115 163 129 1)2 19Q, )62 3 n Cola 3h 37 ho h0 50 h0 45 50 Bananas (exported) 85 133 144 187 193 150 175 200 BaIanias (uther) 3 5 - - - 07 0 Pinea2ple 20 h 61 84 87 114 Lh8 175 Latex h V-4 5 6 7 12 19 36 Skeanuts 2 3 3 3 h 3 3 3 Cotton (Allen) - 6 9 22 35 69 117 130 Cotton (Mono) 6 7 5 3 3 3 1 - Tobacco (Artisanal) - - - - - 3 4 h Tobacco (Industrial) 2 2 3 2 3 1 1 2 eanu,t 214 2 0 30 31 39 50 62 Copra 2 4 4 6 7 6 15 63 Oilpaln (Natural palm) 2h0 255 255 260 235 264 248 260 Oilpaln (Palm selection) 58 74 63 85 98 206 350 1,600 Sugar cane - - - - - - 150 600 Kenaf - - - - - 5 16 20 Sisal - - - - - - 1 2 Avocadoes - - - - - - 1 2 /i Largely mission estimates4 2 Plan forecasts. 13 Details on eggs or meat not available. h Ministry of Agriculture crop year shows 92, 3 {5 Nunbers slaughtered in 000i SOURCES: Comptes de la Nation; Plan Esquisse; and other sources. 7.2 AREA AND OUTPUT ESTIMATES FOR SELECTED CRDPS 1966 1967 1968 1969 Forecasts ATT PATM planted (ha) 24,300 38,5001 50,800 2 60,000 in production (ha) 11,1000 regimes (1000 tons) 63,400 85,300 97,800 COX)NUTS nlanted (ha) n.a. 12.ho0 11'.ho0 17.900 in production (ha) n.a. 7,100 7,500 copra (tons) n.a. 4,800 5,200 production (1000 tons) 256 157 272 COCOA production (1000 tons) 163 129 142 COTTON planted V~ 1. 3 A rv-rv-Ar 7, seed cotton (tons) 14,000 25,000 41,700/5 -1,50 BANANA production (tons) n.a. 186,800 192,700 150,000 PINEAPPLE production (tons) 60.800 83.700 91.so006 n.a- RUBBER planted (ha) 11,600 12,100 12,600 12,700 tapped (haN) o,0 7,0U 8,50 production (tons of latex) 4,900 5,900 7,000 KERAF planted (ha) 400 700 fiber (tons) 150 500 TOBAnnO production (tons) 2,600 2,200 2,500 SUGAR cane n.a. n.a. n.a. sugar n.a. n.a. n.a. RICE production (1000 tons paddy) 275 340 365 SOURCE : Provided by the Ivorian Authorities and Mission's findings. /1 Add "others", say 1000 ha. /2 Of which SODEPALM, 39487 ha in 1968, and 48,987 in 1969. /3 P1ns 1nothp.rs. qav 8n0 hq 'I Plus private blocs industriels, about 1000 ha. A4 Offical CFDT figure /6 Figure adjusted by comparison with National Accounts. 7.3 AGRICULTURAL PRICES: FARM GATE (GFKE per kg) National Accounts ,/ Pl b/ 1960 1961 1962 16 195 .1965 1966 1967 Paddy 18 18 18 18 .18 18 18 18 18 Millet 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 ) 16.25 Sorghum 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 Fonio 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Maize 12 1:2 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Yam 13 13 13 13 13 l4 13 13 1 Cassava 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 Plantain 8 3 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 Taro 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Sweet Potatoes 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Peas 7 -7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Potatoes - 27.5 27.5 27.5 - - - . Cattle CFAF/head 13,000 15,000 13,500 13,500 13,000 13,000 n.a. n.a. 13,000 Sheep and Goats 1,350 1,600 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 n.a. n.a. 1,750 Pigs 2,550 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 n.a. n.a. 3, oCoO Poultry CFAF/Kg 150 15.5 160 155 155 155 n.a. n.a. 155 Plan Esuisse Plan Esquisse Coffee 90 Cotton (Allen) 40 Cocoa 70 Cotton (Mono) 31.5 Cola 20 Tobacco (Peasant) 120 Banana 20 Tobacco (Industrial) 70 Pineapple for canning 8 Peanuts 20 fresh local 15 Copra 28 fresh export 30 Oil Palm (Natural)/kg bunch 3.3 Latex 65 Oil Palm (Selected)/kg bunch 5 Sheanuts 24 Sources: National Accounts and Plan Esquisse. / Farm gate prices used in National Accounts. / Farm gate prices used in Plan Esquisse.  8.1 GROWTH OF IVORY COAST INDUSTRY (figures in CFAF million) ' Investments' Grs sales, Value ade I --rtss a' Jos 1960 1965 1968 1960 -197 1968 1960 1 1968 ' end 1965 'in 8 ' enterprises 05 Cereals and flour processing 1,C78 3,763 5,628 286 953 1,470 7 113 75 3,800 .3,200 (70) 0 Canned foods, coffee, cocoa 680 3.640 8,501 191 851 2,118 66q 3.287 8,h87 3,280 .LL,37 11 07 Beverages, ice 1,139 1,421 2,112 706 816 1,35 175 97 8 2,800 916 4 0 Other food indus- tries, tobacco 666 2,246 2,766 501 1,751 2,143 69 255 156 1,o60 302 6 09 Energy - 941 5,558 - 299 1,510 - 403 1,609 3,75 201 1 10 Extractive industries 1,038 1,805 1,346 779 1,353 857 1,133 1,775 1,337 3,655 L,362 5 11 Metals 175 350 662 91 155 203 169 215 109 300 197 4 12~ Bnu.iing m[adteria,ls 415 7~97 2,0 270 372 951 0 7 1015 1,555 7IC6 10 13 Fertilizers - 33 5 - 18 1 - 5 53 220 30 1 14 Chemicals, related products, rubber 120 2,157 3,119 82 730 999 115 873 1.278 1.h4 887 TC 15 Forestry indus- tries 1,683 6,938 10,616 863 3,177 5,462 680 3,h92 5.352 q.300 7.q00 73 16 Assembly and repair of motor vehicles 1,839 5,571 7,87 902 2,017 2,71 177 373 373 1,5UU 1,93 22 17 Other mechanical and electrical industries 566 2,802 3,913 499 1,015 1,565 253 1,101 720 1,600 1,652 23 18 Textile industry 1,625 5,565 10,255 773 1,886 3,793 698 657 2,755 6,350 6,000 23 -L aa±t ~±t-+,1 -- -v - -7 1 1. I il 175 6354792 3 20 Fats 2,101 3,688 5,568 530 982 1,601 765 785 965 3,230 1,287 6 21 Rubber and plastics articles 125 392 830 15 167 390 114 28 42 645 552 '12 22 Miscellaneous industries 260 c80 1.296 1c8 322 J, P1 22)h 291 Ann A1 99 13,978 42,082 73,571 6, 6 68 712 27,41o 5 ,05 8 13,820 23,108 51904,7 1 Souces bgoss s~ales, value.~ added,~' exors Naina ccwtivstets-os,n --rofet-----! Chamber of Industry and Industrial Development Department. The latter figures are approximate. Sub-sector 09: only the oil refinery has been taken into account.  9.1 PRICE VARIATIONS 1960 1961 1962 1963 196h 196q 1966 1967 1968 1969 - Consumer price index ("European family" 1960 = 100L1 100.0 108.2 109.5 113.5 118.0 121.0 122.2 126.7 129.7 - Consumer price index ("'African family") (2/1960 = 100) 102.9 112.7 112.4 112.4 113.9 117.0 121.9 124.6 131.6 138.6 - Price index of building materials in Abidjan (6/1956 = 100) 125.1 124.9 1:26.3 126.6 130.7 131.0 133.3 133.8 136.2 136.2 1 Calculated since 1962. SOURCE : As for Table 2.1 and IFS. 9.2 PRICE VARIATIONS (Monthly averages) COST OF LIVING INDEX "AFRICAN" TYPE FAMILY fRUARy l967T00 Number of Weight 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 196 1966 1967 1968 1969 items ( une_ Total or average 100 100.0 102.8 114.1 112.4 112.4 113.9 117.0 122.0 124.6 131.4 143.9 Foodstuffs 47 51.1 1-06. 125.6 118.7 118.3 118.9 122.4 127.6 126.6 134.8 158.7 Housing 2 11.6 100.3 103.0 108.8 108.8 109.3 113.6 114.6 122.6 126.7 126.7 Utilities 6 8.1 93.4 99.4 106.0 102.9 105.6 110.1 102.8 108.0 109.8 109.3 Household Utensils 13 7.3 100.6 98.1 100.2 103.8 107.8 106.2 110.9 115. 124.1 126.4 Clothing 12 8.4 100.9 107.9 110.2 112.3 120.2 128.1 132.0 128.9 132.1 133.4 Services 9 8.5 101.0 101.7 102.7 102.7 98.4 94.1 94.9 94.9 107.5 l06.5 Miscellaneous 11 5.0 99.6 99.7 103.7 104.9 112.5 118.1 156.2 191.5 193.6 195.7 CST OF LIVING 'INDEX "EUM)PEAN1" TYPE FAMILY Total or average 140 100.0 100.0 105.1 108.2 109.5 113.5 118.0 120.13 122.2 126.7 129.7 Foodstuffs 57 50.0 100.0 102.0 105.0 106.0 109.6 115.4 118.6 119.5 120.5 123.8 Utilities t5 .0 100.0 101.0 99.0 99.0 97.9 97.6 95.1 94.2 9.1 94.8 Clothing, Household utensils 28 8.0 100.0 108.0 116.0 121.0 123.9 130.1 133.3 128.3 144.1 145.7 Maintenance, health 22 10.0 100.0 n.a. 113.0 114.0 ll.8 118.5 122.2 123.2 1hr.2 150.6 Services 2 8.0 100.0 109.0 110.0 110.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 120.0 12c.8 130.0 Miscellaneous 26 20.0 100.0 110.0 113.0 115.0 119.9 123.8 125.h 128.3 131.4 134.7 ESAE PRICE INDEX TDR CQNSTRUCTION MATERIALS (/56 100) General Index 125.1 124.9 126.3 126.6 130.7 131.0 133.3 133.8 136.2 136.2 Source : Situation Economique de la C6te d'Ivoire, 1963, 196)4 Bulletin Mensuel de Statistique BCEAO Conjoncture Ouest Africaine 10.1 SJECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1960 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Electricity produced ( 000KWH) of which: rnermo a 8 79 6? 121 115 66 Hydra 59 96 11 209 193 257 141 Electricity consumed ('000 KWH) of which: Low tension 30 83 99 120 132 156 99 Hiph tension P7 7 o16 10o . I Carburants consumed ('000 m3) GLC) .L4 1gy 161 166 185 96 Gas-oil 42 90 101 111 121 137 83 Mineral Production Manganese (C000 tons) 73 136 180 176 Th9 117 C9 Diamond ('000 carat) 199 200 198 183 176 187 95 Port of Abidian ('000 tons) Merchandise loaded 1,010 2,059 2,200 2,390 2,481 2,776 1,563 [ecanieuno--d 7f ',-7- 1,4j2±oQ 1,6004 1,96y ?32 RaiLa Passenger-Km(COP/Xn) 219 469 507 517 479 541 259 a/ Merchandise-Km(O0Otons/Km)216 322 314 301 309 329 1AL4 T/ Airprrt of Abidjan ('GoO) Arrivals ) 66 53 60 65 68 77 39 Departures ) 52 59 66 66 78 48 Car Reastration (number) Private and can. cars 3,109 4,521 3,953 4,500 5Ah57 6,011 3,057 Trucks 2,052 2,694 1,674 2,409 2,320 2,099 1,261 Tractors 208 406 356 528 586 600 )3; Busses 33 55 116 122 259 367 255 Permanent Wage earners ('000) 169.8 208Q 21.8 22. 235.8 214., n of which: Private sector (1h4.9) (178.9) (186.4) (185.3) (198.3) (209.5) n.a. Public sector (24.9) (30.0) (30.4) (35.9) (37.5) (38.0) n.a, Index of Sold Merchandises to 9/3D/64 129.8 137.3 146.1 151.2 162.5 n.a. 1/ 5 months only f/ In December: anual peak period SnurceAS IullPtin ManRal da R+.f1+t qIn notAn u .. 4ITnera..Man+ a,.+