BASELINE COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING MAY 2020 Publication Date BACKGROUND NIGERIA Nigeria was among the first countries in Sub-Saharan Africa NLPS) on a nationally representative sample of 1,950 to identify cases of COVID-19. The Government has since households. COVID-19 NLPS households were drawn from implemented strict measures to contain the spread of the the sample of households interviewed in 2018/2019 for virus. Additionally, global oil prices plummeted by a dra- Wave 4 of the General Household Survey —Panel (GHS- matic 60% following the spread of the pandemic and since Panel). The extensive information collected in the GHS- the oil sector accounts for the bulk of government revenue, Panel just over a year prior to the pandemic provides a rich this is expected to substantially weaken the Nigerian econo- set of background information on COVID-19 NLPS house- my. The federal government will have fewer resources avail- holds which can be leveraged to assess the differential im- able to simultaneously combat the public health crisis of pacts of the pandemic in the country. COVID-19 and a weakening economy. This brief presents findings from the baseline of this survey In order to track the impacts of the pandemic, the National which was conducted between April 20 and May 11, 2020 Bureau of Statistics implemented the Nigeria COVID-19 and coincided with a federally mandated lockdown that was National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 initiated on March 30, 2020. SUMMARY • Respondents are generally aware of important preventa- like yam, rice and beans during the 7 days prior to the tive measures against coronavirus such as handwash- interview with 35-59% of households who need to pur- ing (97%), avoiding gatherings (90%) and social distancing chase these staple foods reporting that they were not (89%). able to buy them. 26% of households reported not being able to access medical treatment when they needed it • Many in the country are concerned about the health and during the same period. financial impacts of the pandemic. 78% of respondents were worried about themselves or their • Experience of economic shocks in the few months family members becoming seriously ill from the after the outbreak of coronavirus far exceeds shocks ex- coronavirus, while 92% saw the coronavirus as a threat to perienced between 2017 and 2019. The most widely re- their household's finances. ported shock experienced by households was an increase in prices of major food items faced by 85% of households • The impact on employment and income have also since the outbreak compared to only 19% between Janu- been widespread. 42% of respondents who were working ary 2017 and January 2019. Many households have strug- before the outbreak reported that they were not current- gled to cope with these widespread shocks with 51% of ly working due to COVID-19. The impact of COVID-19 all households resorting to reducing food consumption. has been most strongly felt in the commerce, service, and agriculture sectors. 79% of respondents reported that • The pandemic has also affected children’s education. their households’ total income have decreased since mid- Among households with children attending school prior March. their nationwide closure in March, only 62% reported that their children had engaged in any learning/educational • Some households struggled to purchase staple foods activities since the closure. KNOWLEDGE AND CONCERNS OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 1 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING 97% of respondents reported that they knew handwashing COVID-19 could have a negative impact on their health was a measure to help reduce the risk of contracting and financial status. 78% reported being “very or COVID-19, while only 63% of respondents knew that somewhat worried” about themselves or an immediate avoiding touching their face is also a preventative meas- family member becoming seriously ill from the coronavirus, ure. Knowledge of appropriate social distancing while 92% reported that the coronavirus is a “substantial or measures was also high among all respondents. The moderate” threat to their household's finances. majority of respondents reported being concerned that EMPLOYMENT AND LIVELIHOOD The survey revealed that 42% of respondents who were working before the outbreak were no longer working the week preceding the interview for reasons related to COVID-19. The poorest households (from the lowest con- sumption quintile) reported the highest share who stopped working (45%) but the rate was also high for the wealthiest households (39%). Workers in all sectors were affected by the pandemic, but primarily those working in commerce, services and agricul- ture. 14% of respondents were working in the commerce sector before the outbreak but have since stopped working due to COVID-19. This is equivalent to 60% of all those working in the sector prior to the pandemic. In all sectors, respondents that stopped working reported that COVID- 19 related economic impacts were the primary cause. A high rate of households reported income loss since mid- March. 79% of households reported that their total income decreased. Income from all sources were affected by the pan- demic and reported to have decreased since mid-March. How- ever, the rate was highest for income from non-farm family business (85%) compared to household farming, livestock or fishing (73%) and wage employment (58%). ACCESS TO BASIC NEEDS A high percentage of households (35-59% of those that needed them) reported not being able to buy staple foods like yam, rice and beans during the 7 days prior to the inter- view when they needed them. Soap and cleaning supplies were reported by households to be the most commonly needed items, though most house- holds were able to purchase these items. 26% of households who needed medical treatment reported not being able to access treatment. Data Notes: Nigeria COVID-19 Na- tional Longitudinal Phone https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 2 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING SAFETY NETS AND COPING When compared to the period between January 2017 and January 2019 as reported in the GHS-Panel data, it is clear that the same households interviewed in the COVID-19 NLPS have experienced more economic shocks following the pandemic. Increases in the price of major food items consumed (85% of households) and farming/business inputs (46%) were most widely experienced. Serious disruptions of economic activities were also experienced, particularly nonfarm business closure (36%) and disruption of farming activities (29%). While households are facing economic shocks, they are also attempting to adapt. However, many households appear to be turning to coping mechanisms that can have further negative impacts such as reducing food consumption (51% of all households). Many households are also drawing down their savings (29%) in response to these shocks. EDUCATION School closure prompted by the pandemic is reducing chil- dren’s opportunity to learn. 38% of households with children who attended school prior to school closures due to the pandemic reported that their children did not engage in any learning/education activities during the 7 days prior to the interview. Poorer households have higher rate compared to wealthier households. 81% of households also reported that they did not have any contact with children’s teachers since schools were closed. Data Notes: Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 Baseline was implemented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in April-May 2020. This survey is part of a World Bank global effort to support countries in their data collection efforts to monitor the impact of COVID-19. A World Bank team from the Development Data Group and the Poverty and Equity Global Practice provided technical support. This survey is the first of a planned 12 waves of the COVID-19 NLPS of households in Nigeria. 3,000 households from the 2018/19 General Household Survey - Panel were contacted and 1,950 households were fully interviewed. These same households will be contacted in subsequent waves of the COVID-19 NLPS. The data are representative at the national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non-response and undercoverage. For further details on the data, visit http://surveys.worldbank.org/covid-19 For details on the survey, contact Biyi Fafunmi (biyifafunmi@nigerianstat.gov.ng) and Tunde Adebisi (tundeadebisi@nigerianstat.gov.ng) 3