Page 1 : LY-30295 flflcaron . Page 2 ii 2006 ) ( . . ) ( . . . 2004 26 8 2004 26 1 2005 27 30 2006 . : : . Page 3 iii \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 vi I \03\11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 1 \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . ....................... 1 \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . .............. 2 \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . .................. 7 \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . . 1 0 \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . ... fi II \03\11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 fi \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ................................ . .......................... fi \03\11 \03 \03 (i) \03 ................................ . ............................... . .......................... fi (ii) \03 \03 \03 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... fi (iii) \03 ................................ . ............................... . ........... fflfi \03\11 \05 \05 ................................ . ............. ffl \03 \03\11 \03 ................................ . ............................... . ............. ffi III \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ff fi \11 \03 ................................ . ............................... . ................. ff fi \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . .... ff \03\11 \03 \03 ................................ . ............................... . ....... ff \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . .. breve fl (i) \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 breve fl (ii) \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 breve fi (iii) \11 \03 \11\11\11\03\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11 breve (iv) \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 breve (v) \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 breve (vi) \11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 breve \03\11 \03 \03 ................................ . ............................... . ........................... breve IV \11 \03 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 67 \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . ................. caron fl \03\11 ................................ . ............................... caron fi \11 \03 \03 \03 ................................ . ................. caron \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . ......................... caron \11 \03 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . . (i) \03 ................................ . ............................... . ....................... caron (ii) \03 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . ........ \1a (iii) \03 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . .......................... \1a \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . ............... \1a Page 4 iv \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . .................. \1a (i) ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . ............................ \1a (ii) \03 \05 \05 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . .. dotaccentfl (iii) \03 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . ............................. dotaccent V \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 dotaccent \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . ............................... dotaccent \03\11 .............................. dotaccent (i) \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \03 (ii) ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . .............................. dotaccent (iii) \03 ................................ . ............................... . ...... dotaccent (iv) ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . ........................ dotaccent (v) \03 ................................ . ............................... . .......... dotaccent (vi) \03 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . ......... dotaccent (vii) \03 .................... dotaccent (viii) \03 ................................ . ............................... . ....................... hungarumlautfl (ix) ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . ...... hungarumlautfi \03\11 \03 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . ........ hungarumlaut fi (i) \05 \05 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . . fi (ii) \03 ................................ . ............................... . ................... hungarumlaut (iii) \03 ................................ . ............................... . ........ hungarumlaut VI \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11 hungarumlaut \03\11 \03 \03 ................................ . ............................... . .................... hungarumlaut \03\11 \03 \03 ................................ . ........................ hungarumlaut \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... hungarumlaut \03\11 ................................ . ............................... . ............................... . ........... fi flfl fi \11 \03 \03 \03 \03\11 \03\11 \03\11\03 fi\11fi \03 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 fi \11fi \03 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ffl \11fi \03 \03 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ffl \11fi \03 \03 \03 (PPP) \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\03 \11 \11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 caron II \11\03 \03 fi \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 fi II \03 \03 \11\03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 fi II \03 \11 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 fi II \03 fi fi - fl fl \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\03 \11 \11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 fi II breve \03 fi fi - fl fl \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\03 \11 \11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 fi II \03 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\03 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ffl fl II \1a \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ffl fl II dotaccent \03 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11 \11 \11\11 ffl Page 5 v II \03 \03 \11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ffi fl II \03 fi fl \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ffi fl II \03 fi fi \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ffi II \03 fi \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11\11 \11 \11 \11 \11 II \03 fi \11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11 \11 \11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ffi III \03 fi \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 fi III \03 \11 fi - \03 fl fl \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\03 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11 ff IV \03 fi fi - fl fl \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\03 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11 caron IV \03 flflfl - flflff \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11 \11 \03 VI \11 fi \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11 \11 \03 \03 , V \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11 fi flfi I \11 1 \03 fi fi - fl fl \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\03 \11 \11\11 \11 \11 fi fl II \11 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11 \11 fi II \11 \03 fl fl \12 \03 fl fl \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11 \11\11 fi \03 II \03 \03 \11\03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 fi \03 II \03 \03 \11\03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ffl \03 III \11 \03 fi fi - fl fl \11 \11\11\11 ff \03 III \03 \11\03 ffl flflfl \03 - fl fl \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\03 ff III \03 \03 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11 ff fi\11fi \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ff \03 \11fi \03 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 caron \03 \11fi \1d \03 CPI . ...................................................................... fi fl II . fi .. . ....................................................... fi II . ffl ...................................................................... fi II . ....................................... . ..................................... ffl II . .................................................................... ffl II . \03\03 (TFP) \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11 \11\11 ffl \03 II . \03 – \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11\11\11 ffi \03 II . \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ffi \03 III \03 \11\03 fi \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ff \03 III \03 \11\03 ffl \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 ff \03 \03 III \03 \03 \11\03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 breve fi \03 IV \11 fi \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 caron fi IV \11 \03 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 caron \03 IV \11 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 caron IV \11 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \1a fl \03 Page 6 vi IV \03 \11 \03 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \1a \03 V \03 \11\03 fi \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11 dotaccent \03 VI \03 fi \03 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 \11 \11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11\11 hungarumlaut fi \11 ¾ % (GDP) \03 ] [ \03 % % . . 1988 . % . \11 " / (MENA) (*) . (per capita GDP) " (purchasing power parity) . ) ( . " " . . ¾ \11 % " . flflfl \11 % flflff \11 % flflbreve . (*) ] " [" " " \03 ( MENA) \03 – \0c \11\0b \03 Page 7 vii fi fi flflfl (deflation cost) (exchange rate) . flflbreve fi . II . ¾ \11 ¾ . fl % (recoverable reserves) fi % fl % . " " " ( OPEC) . (net present value) , fi , flflbreve . % flflff ) ( fl % ) .( - \0f % – % . . , . . . . flflfl . \11 % flflff flflbreve . Page 8 viii . fi . \11 ¾ . fi \0f % fi flflffi . .% ) ( . . \11 ¾ : ) s ignificant ( % , . administered prices [(entry barriers) (factor markets) . \11 ¾ . (unrealized potential) . (adjustment costs) (transition) . . \11 ? ¾ . : Page 9 ix · · (oil windfalls) (incomes) · . fifl \11 \0c \0b ¾ (hydrocarbon windfalls) . . . fifi \11 ? ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ . . ( macroeconomic stability) . . fi \11 (intermediation) \03 É ¾ ? ?¾ ¾ . . . Page 10 x . . fi \11 \05 \05 ? . (vulnerable) . fi \11 ? ¾ ¾ ¾ . . . fi \11 ) ( ( quality of governance) ¾ . . . III \11 fi \11 flflff flflbreve \11 ? \11 % flflfi flflbreve . . % flflff flflbreve flflff flflbreve . % flflffi . flflbreve flflcaron Page 11 xi fi % flflbreve . . fi \11 . . . . fi \11 ? . (conservative estimate) " " . fi . ? ¾ \11 . . . . . fl . . fl % fl % . . . . Page 12 xii fi \11 ? . flflffi fi \0f % % . \0f % . . . . IV \03 \11 \11 ¾ ? ¾ ¾ : · · · · · · \11 ¾ ) ( . Page 13 xiii . ¾ fl ? . . . . . . \11 ? ? ¾ ¾ . fifl % . . flflff . . \11 ? ¾ ¾ ? \11 . \11 ? ? ? ? ¾ ¾ . Page 14 xiv . \11 ? ¾ \05 \05 ? ¾ \11 . " " . " " . V \11 fl \11 ¾ ¿ . (restructuring) (adjustment) . . . . fi \11 . . . . . ¾ ) ( Page 15 xv . \11 ¾ 369.8 660.6 8.9 2.9 0 : \03 \03 \03 \03 279.1 660.6 8.9 2.9 0 : \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 ¾ \03? \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 177.5 641.8 8.9 2.9 0 : \03 \11 \03 . . ffiff \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 . (standardized statements) (borrowers) . . (creditors) . ffibreve \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \1d . ) ( . VI \03 \11 ¾ \03 \03 \03 fficaron \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03¾ \03 \03 . . . ffl flflffi Page 16 xvi . ffi\1a \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 É \03 \03 ? \03 . . ffidotaccent \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ffihungarumlaut \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 " " breve fl % . VII \03 \11 \03 \03 \03 fffl \11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \1d . fffi \11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) ( \03 . . . Page 17 xvii ffffl \03\11 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) fflff ( . ) ( . . . . . Page 18 x v i i i ) ( ) ( \03 \03 \03 \03 ƒ \03 – \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ƒ \03 ffi - breve ƒ \03 ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 Page 19 x i x ) ( Page 20 x x ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 breve ƒ \03 " " ƒ \03 : ( i ) ( i i ) ( i i i ) ) ( ( i v ) ( v ) . ƒ \03 . ƒ \03 ƒ \03 fi ff breve caron ƒ \03 ƒ \03 \03 Page 21 x x i ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ) ( \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 \03 ƒ \03 \03 ƒ \03 \03 ƒ \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 Page 22 1 Oil share in GDP, in nominal and constant (1997) prices, %, 1990-2005 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Nominal Real Hydrocarbon* % GDP, 2003, Libya and comparators 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% C o l o m b i a I r a n A z e r b a i j a n T r i n i d a d a n d A l g e r i a S a u d i A r a b i a A n g o l a L i b y a Source: WDI and IMF(2006); * mining and quarrying \03\03\1d fi . . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 ) fihungarumlautbrevefi ( \1a fl % ffi fl % . . fi hungarumlautcaronfi caron\11dotaccent flfl ffl flflbreve breve \0fbreve . (nominal terms) \1a ffl\11caron % ffl flflbreve ) fi\11fi . ( hungarumlaut ffi % hungarumlautbreve % . ) ( , ffiffl % ffl flflff . . ffl flflffl ) fi\11fi . .( Figure I. 1: The share of oil in the Libyan economy (a) (b) ffl . \03 ó ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . fihungarumlautcaronhungarumlaut ffi ( mb/d) " " ( OPEC) . fihungarumlautcaronffl " " . Page 23 2 Figure 1.3: GDP components, Real terms (1997), % 1990-2005 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Services Hydrocarbons Agri. And Fishing Construction Industry Libya Crude Oil Production and Export Revenue 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 k/bd mil $ Production Revenue " " " " ffi % . . fi\11caron breve / 1 . Figure I. 2: Libya Crude Oil Production and Export Revenue Figure I. 3: GDP components, Real terms ffi . . \03\03 fi caron % ffl flflbreve ffcaron % fihungarumlauthungarumlautfl fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut hungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 (outputs) ffbreve % ffl flflbreve ff fl % ) ffi\11fi ) fihungarumlauthungarumlaut\1a ( ( %) ( . ) breve ffi\0fdotaccent (% " ) " ff hungarumlaut\0fbreve .(% \1a % ) ( . dotaccent % " ) " fi ffl\0fbreve (% ) caron . (% . ff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 1 \03 (LNG) . dotaccentffl % ffl flflffi fi breve % . ffi % . Page 24 3 . . fihungarumlautcaronhungarumlaut : ƒ \03 " " ( “Libyanization”) . ƒ \03 . fihungarumlaut\1afl . ) " " fi hungarumlautdotaccent \1a . ( breve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . 2 . . : . . . . caron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . fihungarumlaut\1adotaccent \05 \03 \03 \03 \05 . fihungarumlaut\1a\1a . ) fi\11fi ( : 2 \03 ) ( . ) " " fihungarumlaut dotaccent \1a .( Page 25 4 ƒ \03 . . " " . . ƒ \03 - . . " " . ƒ \03 ) .( fi\11fi \03 \1d fihungarumlaut \1a \1a . " " " " . " " \03 \11 . " " . " ." fflflflfl fflcaron " ." . . \1a . fihungarumlaut\1adotaccent fihungarumlaut\1adotaccent . . . Page 26 5 . . dotaccent . . fihungarumlautdotaccent\1a fi hungarumlautdotaccentdotaccent . . fihungarumlauthungarumlautffl . hungarumlaut . \03\03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \1d . (allocating) ) ( (distributive state) . : ) ( . . fifl . \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º fihungarumlautdotaccentcaron . \03 \03 \10 fihungarumlauthungarumlautcaron fflfl . ffl flflfi . fihungarumlauthungarumlautffl " " fihungarumlautdotaccentdotaccent ) ( . " " fihungarumlauthungarumlauthungarumlaut Page 27 6 ffl flflffi . ffl flflff . fifi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 º \11 . . ) ffl\11fi ( . . Page 28 7 FIgure 1.4 : GDP per capita PPP, international comparidon, US$ constant prices (2000) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 Oman Saudi Arabia Libya Trinidad and Tobago Iran Kazakhstan Algeria Venezuela Azerbaijan Angola fiffl . \03\03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffl % . . . . fiffi . \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 º \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ) ff\11fi / PPP fi hungarumlauthungarumlaut fl - ffl flflffl ( . 3 caron\1a % . ffl\11fi \03 \1d ) ( . hungarumlautfl % . ffff flfl ff\0fbreve (mcm/d) . fflbreve fflbreve ) fi hungarumlautdotaccent ffi . ( . fflflflbreve . " " " " . fflflflffl . " " dotaccentdotaccent ff hungarumlaut\1a % fflflflfi . carondotaccent fi\0ffi . (overdraft facility) . " " (syndicated loan) brevehungarumlaut ffi ff . hungarumlautdotaccent % ffl % 3 . fl\0fflff dotaccent fl \0ffldotaccent . . fl\0f\1a hungarumlaut caron . . . fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut ffi . Page 29 8 hungarumlaut , fflcaronhungarumlaut fi hungarumlauthungarumlautfl ffl flflffl hungarumlaut , hungarumlautcaroncaron ffl flflff . dotaccent \0fcarondotaccentffl ffl flflffi fflbreve % fi\1a % . ff breve . fiff . \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03? º \03 \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾º \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffi \0fffi % fihungarumlautcaronffl ffl flflffi " " ffl % " " ffhungarumlaut fi flflfl ffl \1a fi flflfl ffl flflffl . (urbanization rate) . ffl flflffi dotaccent caron % ffbreve % fihungarumlaut\1afl 4 . \03 fibreve . \03 ó \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 ? breve fl % . ) ( . . 5 . . ffl flflfl ffiflfl . . ) fflflfl $ ( ffl fl % fi ffl % . 4 \03 \0c caron ff \03 \03 ffffl % ( " ) " hungarumlaut caron ff ffl ffl flflffi . ( \03 \03 5 \03 caron\1a % ) ffl flflff ( . dotaccentdotaccent .% Page 30 9 . . ficaron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03¾ \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 ? fibreve fiff % ffiff .% fffl % caronfl .% ffl fi fi flbreve % fi hungarumlaut\1afl ffl flflffl . ffi breve dotaccent % . hungarumlaut % ffl flflffl ) ff (% ) ffl (% ) ffi .(% fi\1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 ? º \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \11 ( i) (ii) (iii) . fidotaccent . \03 \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . fihungarumlauthungarumlaut\1a \1a\1afl ) ( ffi\0fdotaccentcaronfl fihungarumlautcaronbreve . dotaccentbrevefl ffibrevefl fi hungarumlauthungarumlautffl " " (OECD) . ) ( ficaron fl / fi flflfl fi hungarumlautcaronfl ficaron / fi flflfl ffl flflffl . ) fi fl / fi flflfl ( ) \1a / fi flflfl ( ) dotaccent / fi flflfl .( breveffl ) fi hungarumlaut\1afl ( \1affl ) ffl flflffl .( . Page 31 10 . . . fihungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \11 " " fihungarumlautdotaccenthungarumlaut . . . ) ff fi fi ( . . . fflfl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03\11 \03 ffl flflfl \03 " " ffl caron % . . . fflfi . \03 \03 \03 º \03 \03 \03¾ º \03\03 \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03? \05 \03\05 ? \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º . ffl flflfl " ." fihungarumlautdotaccentfl . ) \1afi (% " ) " breveff\0fdotaccent (% ) hungarumlautfi , dotaccent .(% . fflffl . ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \1d fihungarumlautdotaccentcaron 6 . 6 \03 fihungarumlaut dotaccent caron . fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut ffl fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut hungarumlaut fflflflffi . ffl flflff . \03 Page 32 11 ffl\0fcaron % fi ffi\0fbreve % fihungarumlauthungarumlautfi fi hungarumlauthungarumlautff fihungarumlauthungarumlautdotaccent fi hungarumlauthungarumlauthungarumlaut . ffi % . fihungarumlauthungarumlauthungarumlaut ) fi\11fi .( fflffi \11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ffi\0fbreve % ffl flflbreve ff\11caron % ffl flflff . ff\0fcaron % ffl flflbreve ff \0ffi % ffl flflff ffl \11ffl % ffl flflffi . 7 ffi \0fffi % . fflff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 fihungarumlaut dotaccent fi \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffl flflfl . ffl flflfl ffl flflffl \1a\0fffl ) % hungarumlaut\0fffl % .( ) fihungarumlauthungarumlauthungarumlaut ffl flflffl ( ) ffi\11fi ( 8 . fi ffiffl % fihungarumlauthungarumlauthungarumlaut ffl flflffi . brevefl % ffl flflffl ffl flflffl . fi\11fi : fflflflbreve fflflflff fflflflffi fflflflffl fflflflfi fflflflfl fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut hungarumlaut fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut breve - hungarumlautdotaccent fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut fi - hungarumlautff ) ( ffi\11breve ff\11caron hungarumlaut\11fi ffi\11ffi ff\11breve fi\11fi - fl\0fff fi\0fdotaccent ffi\0fff 7 \03 (National Accounts) . 8 \03 fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut hungarumlaut " " . ) ( . fflflflffl . Page 33 12 ff\11caron ff\11fi ffl\11ffl ff\11\1a caron\11dotaccent ffi fl\0fhungarumlaut ffl\0fcaron ffi\0f\1a ffl\11breve \1a\11fl fi\11ffl ffl\11breve - fi\0fffl - ffl\0fffi - fl\0fffl fi\0fff / ffl\11breve - ffl\11ffl - fi\11ffl - hungarumlaut\0fhungarumlaut - dotaccent\0fdotaccent - hungarumlaut\11ffl ffl\0fcaron ff\0fhungarumlaut hungarumlaut\0fdotaccent CPI ) $ ( fifl\11fl \1a\11ffi breve\11fl fl\11caron ff\11fi caron\11breve fi\0fcaron fl\0fdotaccent - fl\0fflff fffl\11dotaccent fflff \11ffl fflfi\11breve ffl\11hungarumlaut fiffi \11dotaccent fidotaccent \11dotaccent breve\0fff ffl\0fcaron - fl\0fffl fflffl \0fdotaccent fihungarumlaut \0f\1a fibreve \0ffl fiff \0ffi fiffi \0ffi caron\0f\1a caron\0f\1a .. ffifi\11breve fflffi \11hungarumlaut fflfi\11hungarumlaut fflfl\11breve fihungarumlaut fflcaron \11\1a fiff \0ffi fifi\0fff .. GNFS fflffi \0fff ffldotaccent \0f\1a fihungarumlaut \0fffl fibreve \0fffi fidotaccent \0fdotaccent .. .. %) ( %) ( \1affi brevehungarumlaut \11fi breveff \11ff brevefi\11ff ffffi \11fi ffbreve \11\1a ffihungarumlaut \0fdotaccent fficaron \0fbreve ffifl\0fcaron fffi\11ffl ffff ff\11fl ffff \11caron fffi\11ffl ffff \11ffi ffifi\11ffi ffiffl \0fdotaccent ffiff , ffifl\0f\1a ffifi\11dotaccent fibreve \11fi hungarumlaut\11dotaccent fifl\11ffl - ffl\11fi fiff \11ff caron\0fhungarumlaut ffl\0fbreve - fi\11fl - fficaron \11fl - fficaron \11fi - ffi\1a \11caron - ffifl\11ffl - ffifl\11ffi - fi\1a - fifl\0fbreve - fflfl\0fcaron - ficaron : ) ffl flflbreve ( ffl flflcaron Page 34 13 fflbreve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffl flflff - ffl , ffl .% ffl flflbreve ffl\11breve . % ffl flflfi ffl flflffl . . ffi\11fi : : CPI fflflflfl fflflflff ) : CPI ) (% .( . fflff % CPI fiffi % ) : CPI ( . ) fiffi ffl (% fihungarumlauthungarumlauthungarumlaut ffl flflffi . . ) ( (price index) dotaccent fl % . fflffi % – - . – - fffl % CPI fihungarumlautdotaccentfi . brevefl .% . ffl flflffl . . fflcaron . ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . caron \0f\1a ) fi fi\0fff ( fihungarumlauthungarumlautbreve - fihungarumlauthungarumlautdotaccent ) fi\11fi .( ffl flflffl fibreve ) fflfl Imports at special rate 24% Imports at official rate 6% Subsidized goods 16% Locally produced without imports 41% Locally produced with imported materials 13% CPI Composition CPI inflation (year-on-year, in %) -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 2 0 0 1 : Q 1 2 0 0 1 : Q 3 2 0 0 2 : Q 1 2 0 0 2 : Q 3 2 0 0 3 : Q 1 2 0 0 3 : Q 3 2 0 0 4 : Q 1 2 0 0 4 : Q 3 2 0 0 5 : Q 1 2 0 0 5 : Q 3 Clothing, shoes, and furniture Food, beverages & tobacco CPI Services Page 35 14 .( ffiff , dotaccent % ffl flflbreve ffihungarumlaut ffl flflbreve ffifi . ffl\1a . \03 \03 \03 º \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? . fihungarumlauthungarumlauthungarumlaut ffifl % . ffiffl % ffl flflfl ff ff % ffl flflff ff fi\11ffl % ffl flflbreve . ffifi\11dotaccent % ffl flflbreve hungarumlaut \11dotaccent % ffl flflffi . ffldotaccent . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffl flflcaron \03 \03 . breve % ffl flflcaron ff % ) ( . ffi % ffl flflcaron . ff ffi % fffl . breve . fflhungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . ffl flflff ffiffl % ) .( Page 36 15 . (outcomes) . . \03¾ \03\1d : . ffifl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 . 9 . ffihungarumlaut\0ffi (Bbbl) brevefi\0fffi ( bcf) fi ffbrevefl ( bcm) . (oil equivalent basis) . 10 . (production profiles) caronfl % ) fi\11ffl .( fiffl % ) fi\11ffl .( fi\11ffl : ) ( ) ( 9 ) .( 10 . Page 37 16 Libya Oil Reserves & Cumulative Production (million bbl) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 Reserves ) ( ) ( ffifi . \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 (significant) . (U.S. Geological Survey, USGS) dotaccent\0fffi ) fi\11ffl .( fibreve \0fffi ) breve .(% fflfi\11fi t cf caron flfl ff\1a\0fffl t cf . (NGL) fl \0fhungarumlaut ffl\0ffi . . fihungarumlautdotaccentfi \1a caron caron caron % . fi\11ffl : F5 F50 F95 dotaccent\0fffl\1a fi fibreve\0fffiffdotaccent \1a\0fff fidotaccent ffl\0fhungarumlaut ffl ffi ) ( fflfi\0ffiflhungarumlaut ff \1a\0ffi\1aff fibreve\0fffffihungarumlaut breve\0f\1a fifl ) ( hungarumlautfihungarumlaut ffl\0ffififf caroncaron fi fflffi caron ) ( F95 hungarumlautbreve % ) fractiles ( \03 \1d \03 U.S. Geological Survey, 2000. ffiffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . " ." " ." . Libya Gas Reserves & Cumulative Production (BCM) 0 200 4 00 600 800 1 000 1200 1400 1600 1970 1980 1990 2000 0 200 4 00 600 800 1 000 1200 1400 1600 Reserves Page 38 17 . . . ffiffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fflflfflbreve . ffl\0ffi fflflfifl fi\0fcaron fi\0fdotaccent fflflfiff 1 1 . IEA U S DOE . (projections) ) ffl\11ffl .( " " fffl\0ffi \1a fl\0fffi fflflfflbreve . . ffl\11ffl : " " ) / ( fflflffl breve fflflffl fl fflflfibreve fflflfifl fflflflfi breveff\0fhungarumlaut ffcaron \0f\1a ffidotaccent \0fhungarumlaut ffiff \0fhungarumlaut fflhungarumlaut \0fhungarumlaut " " caronfi\0fbreve breveffl \0fdotaccent ffff \0fbreve ffihungarumlaut \0f\1a ffiffl \0fffl " " ffl\0fhungarumlaut ffl\0fcaron ffl\0fffl ffl\0ffl fi\0f\1a fffl\0ffi ffiffi \0fbreve ffl\1a \0fhungarumlaut ffl\1a \0fffl fflhungarumlaut \0fhungarumlaut " " ffcaron\0fdotaccent ffihungarumlaut \0fcaron ffiffi \0fffi ffifi\0fcaron ffiffl \0fcaron " " ffl\0fff ffl\0ffi fi\0fdotaccent fi\0f\1a fi\0f\1a \1afl\0fffi brevehungarumlaut \0fffl ffdotaccent \0fff fffi\0fbreve fflhungarumlaut \0fhungarumlaut " " \1abreve\0f\1a caronff \0fcaron breveffi \0f\1a ffcaron \0fcaron ffiffl \0fcaron " " ffi\0ffi ffl\0f\1a ffl\0fff ffl\0ffi fi\0f\1a fflflfflbreve ) ffl flflffl $ :( ffl\1a $ ffiff $ fi\1a $ . \03 \1d \03 US DOE, International Energy Outlook, April 2004. 11 \03 – brevehungarumlaut ff \1a ffl flfifl ffifl ffl flflff - ffl flfifl fi \1a\0fff fflflfiff . Page 39 18 ffiff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \1a \0f ffi \03 \03 fihungarumlaut \0f dotaccent \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffl flflbreve . (NPV) . fflfiflfl ) fi\11ffl fi ( . ffl flflbreve ff % ffldotaccent\1a \1a\1a\1a ) ffi\11ffl ( - \1a , ffi fi hungarumlaut , dotaccent ffl flflbreve . \03 ffl\11fi – " " " " . " " . " ." ) ffl flflffi $ ( ) ffff ( Government Oil Revenue (2003 $m) (Reserves 44 Bbbl) 0 10000 20000 3 0000 40000 50000 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 – - . fflfiflfl " " ) .( (bulk) fihungarumlautcaronfl fflflcaronfl . caronfl % ) caronffi \0fbreve % .( fidotaccent $ fflbreve $ ffiffl $ . . ff % . fi ffihungarumlaut . ) ffff ffhungarumlaut ( . Page 40 19 fiff breve fl . fihungarumlaut flfl fflbreve flfl . . ___________________ fi ffl ) % caronfl (% \1a ) % fffl .(% (Capital Asset Pricing Model) . ffi\11ffl : (NPV) fflflcaron fl ) . fflflflffi $ . . brevebreve $ fffl $ fflbreve $ caronfi\1a , \1a ffbreve ffl , dotaccent ffldotaccent \1a , ffi caronhungarumlaut breve , ff breveflhungarumlaut , ffi ffiffl ffl , hungarumlaut \1a\1a \1a , fl brevecaron dotaccent , \1a fficaron fl , breve fflflflbreve $ / . fflflflbreve $ / fiflflfl ff . % = caron fl % \03 \1d \03 \03 \03 \03 World Bank ffibreve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03Å . shorter extraction period ) ffl .( ff % fifi\11breve . . fflhungarumlaut\11ffi % ffl flflbreve . fidotaccent \11fi . ) . ffcaron % ffl flflbreve .( fflfl , ff . ) . breveffl % ffl flflbreve ( ) ffl\11ffl . ( Page 41 20 fficaron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . " " ) ( . " " . ( surplus capacity) . . (global warming) . (supply curve) . " " . . ffi\1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . fi \0fdotaccent ffi \0fffi % . . (employment elasticity) ) fl\0f\1a breve ( ff\0fbreve % ) ffi\11ffl .( caron\0fbreve % fflbreve % . 55 40 25 Low Mid High 0 1 0 2 0 30 4 0 5 0 60 7 0 8 0 P e r m a n e n t i n c o m e O il price R eserves Figure II. 0 : Permanent Hydrocarbon revenue (2005 prices, in % of 2005 GDP) Page 42 21 Figure 2.4: Real Nonhydrocarbon Carbon GDP growth (1991-2002) -0.3 -0.25 -0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Libya Algeria Iran ffi\11ffl : 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 2 5.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 U n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e ( % l a b o r f o r c e ) 3.5% growth in non-oil sectors 4.5% growth in non-oil sectors 5.5% growth in non-oil sectors fi % / : W orld Bank calculations \03 (i) \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffidotaccent . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 º \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03¾ º \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 º \03¾ º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 º ºº \03 ºº . ffl\11dotaccent % ffl flflfl " " ] ff\11ffl : / fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut fi - fflflflffl [ . ) ( (offsetting) . ffihungarumlaut . \03 º \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 fihungarumlauthungarumlautfi ffl flflffl (terms-of-trade) ) ffl\11breve ( \03 \03 \03 \03 ) ffl\11breve .( Page 43 22 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Terms of Trade Volatility Average per capita GDP growth per year (1981-2000) ) ffl\11ffl . ( ffl\11breve ) ( fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut fi - fflflflffl ( (index) ) fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut breve = fiflfl ( (%) (Std. Dev. 1991-2002) ) ( 1991-2002 ) – s t. dev. ( 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% A z e r b a i j a n A n g o l a G a b o n V e n e z u e l a K a z a k h s t a n O m a n L i b y a C o l o m b i a A l g e r i a I r a n T r i n i d a d S a u d i A r a b i a N i g e r i a V o l a t i l i t y o f R e a l n o n - H y d r o G D P g r o w t h ( s t . d e v . ) , 1 9 9 1 - 2 0 0 2 ) ( ffl\11ffl – fihungarumlaut dotaccent fi - ffl flflfl ) ( ) ( (variables) . (risk-adjusted returns) . . ) ( (supply short-term credit) . . (collateral) 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 N i g e r i a A z e r b a i j a n O m a n L i b y a A l g e r i a I r a n , I s l a m i c R e p . V e n e z u e l a , R B G a b o n T r i n i d a d a n d T o b a g o R u s s i a n F e d e r a t i o n K a z a k h s t a n E c u a d o r C o l o m b i a Volatility of Terms of Trade Index (1995 = 100), Growth Rate (%), (Std. Dev. 1991 - 2002) Page 44 23 . fffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 ( standard deviation of growth) ) ff\11ffl .( . (premia risk) . ff\11ffl fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut fi - fflflflffi \03¿Ë \03 \03¿ \03 fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut fi \10 fflflflffi fi\0fdotaccent ffl\0fdotaccent fi\0fcaron ffi\0fffi dotaccent\0ffl ffl\0fff ffi\0fffi fiff \0fdotaccent ff\0fdotaccent ffi\0fbreve caron\0fffi fi\0fdotaccent ) fl\0fhungarumlaut ffi\0fffi ffi\0fcaron fi\0ffi ffl\0fhungarumlaut ffl\0fdotaccent fi\0fffl ffi\0fff ffl\0fhungarumlaut (ii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . ffffl . \03 º \03 \03 º \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 º \03 º \03 º \03 \03 . . ) caron\11ffl : ( . Page 45 24 . ffl flflfl . ffffi . \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 º \03 \03 \03¾ \03 fihungarumlauthungarumlautbreve . . ) \1a\11ffl : ( . ffff . \03 \03 \03 º \03 ffl flflfl \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \11 fihungarumlauthungarumlaut\1a ffl flflfi . fihungarumlauthungarumlautdotaccent fihungarumlauthungarumlauthungarumlaut ) ffl % .( ffl flflfl . ffl flflfi ffl flflffi fi ff % . ffibreve % ffl flflffl ffl flflbreve . – - ) ffi fl % .( ) \1a fl % .( . F igure II. 6 : Gross Fixed Investmen t and Export Revenues, % GDP 0% 5% 10% 1 5% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 4 5% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0 10 20 3 0 40 50 60 70 80 9 0 % E xports Revenues (right axis) I nvestment (constant prices) (left axis) F igure 2.7: Volatility of Oil Revenue and the Non- Oil Fiscal Balance 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 Million LD -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 % of GDP N on-oil Fiscal Balance (right axis) Oil revenue (left axis) Figure II.7: Volatility of Oil Revenue and the Non-Oil Fiscal Balance Page 46 25 ffbreve \11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 \0c \03 \03 \0b \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º ¾ \03\03 \03 ( money supply) . ¾ . . (balance of payments) . (excess liquidity) 1 2 . . ffl flflfl (non-recurrent factors) . . ffcaron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \11 caronfl fibreve (overall fiscal surplus) ffl ffl % ) ffl flflcaron ( . ffl\1a % ffifl . ffiffi . \03 \03 \03\03\03\03\03\03\03\03\03 \03 ( iii) \03 \03 ff\1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 . 12 dotaccent % (broad money supply) . fflflflffi ) ( ffl\0fdotaccent fflfl % . ffl flflff ffiff % . Page 47 26 : · . ƒ \03 . ƒ \03 . \03\03 \0c \0b \03 ffdotaccent . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 . . . " " . . . ) non-traded goods sectors ( . ffhungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \0c \03 \03\0b \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03Ç \03? \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \11 : ƒ \03 . . Page 48 27 ƒ \03 . ? . . ƒ \03 ) .( ( “Dutch Disease”) (unit labor costs) . \03\03 \0c \0b \03 brevefl . \03 \03¾ \03 \03 É \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03Å \03 ¾ . ( rents) . . . . . ) : W orld Bank 2003f ( 13 . (Alaskan Permanent Oil Fund) ) ffi\11ffl .( 13 \03 . . Page 49 28 Alaska permanent fund dividends, 1982-2004 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 ffl\11ffi : . . ) : org . a pfc . w ww : // h ttp ( fihungarumlaut \1a caron . ffifl % ) fflbreve % ( (lease rentals) (royalties) (royalty sale proceeds) - (federal mineral revenue-sharing payments) (bonuses) (principal) . : (i) (ii) . (General Fund) fl\0fbreve % (Public School Trust Fund) . (resource rents) . . ) ( fihungarumlaut dotaccent ffl ] : fihungarumlaut dotaccent ffl - fflflflff [ . fifl % . . . (investment portfolio) . " " (The Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation) (total market value) . . . brevefi . \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 ? É \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 . . . (procyclical policies) . . Page 50 29 . – - . (foreign held portfolio) . " " . ) ffi\11ffl .( breveffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11\11 . – - ) ( . . . \03\03 \0c \0b \03 breveffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 . . ffl flflfl . . ) ff\11ffl .( . : . . Page 51 30 ) ( ) ( . breveff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . : ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ) . : i. ii. iii. . ƒ \03 - ( “Dutch Disease”) ƒ \03 . Page 52 31 ff\11ffl : . (privatization) . . . . fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut fl fihungarumlauthungarumlautdotaccent ) score fl\0fff .( . . (initial conditions) . fihungarumlaut % . . ) ( . brevebreve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 . . : ƒ \03 \03¿ \03 . . . Page 53 32 ƒ \03 . ) ( . . . . " " : brevecaron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 . ficaron \0f\1a % fihungarumlauthungarumlautdotaccent ffl flflffi \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ) ffl\11breve .( ) ( ) ( ] " " [ ( Incremental Capital Output Ratio, ICOR) ( The Inverse of the Marginal Productivity of Investment) 14 . " " caronfl % hungarumlautfl % . . 14 \03 " " ( investment ratio) " " " " . Page 54 33 breve\11ffl : (real terms) " ) " ( fi hungarumlaut\0fff ficaron \0f\1a fi\0fdotaccent ff\0fhungarumlaut fflffi \0fcaron ff\0fdotaccent breve\0fhungarumlaut fflff \0fdotaccent ff\0fffl fi " " ) ( ) ( . breve\1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 . - ffl ) % ffl\11hungarumlaut .( ) ( ) ffl\11hungarumlaut .( . ffl\11hungarumlaut : ) ( ) fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut \1a ( % ) ( ) fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut \1a ( % brevedotaccent . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 (Total Factor Productivity, TFP) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 (capital stock) . / (capital/output ratio) - ffl % - ) ffl\11ff .( ) ffl\11ff .( ) ( ) ffl\11breve . ( breve\11ffl : (TFP) Labor productivity growth in the non-oil sector (1997 prices, in %) -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Trend Labor productivity growth by sector (1997 prices, in %) -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Manufacturing Agriculture Services Page 55 34 Contributions to Non-oil GDP growth (1997 prices, in %) -8 -6 -4 - 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Capital Stock Employment TFP growth Average 1991-2001 Capital : 0.9% Labor : 2.2% TFP : -0.2% . fihungarumlauthungarumlautfl / ffl . (capital output ratio) . ) fihungarumlauthungarumlaut\1a ( (time-series) ) depreciation rate ( breve % . . (standard estimates) (output to labor) (capital inputs) fl\0f\1a fl\0fffi . ) - ( constant returns to scale . . – fl\0fffl % ) : ( . " / " ( capital/output ratio) . brevehungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \11 breve \0fbreve % fflbreve % . " " ff\0fbreve . . \03 \03 ? . ) ( ( dysfunctional product) . . caronfl . \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 . ) ( “Dutch Disease”) .( Page 56 35 Figure 2.10 : Oil revenues and growth potential in services 0 500 1000 1500 2 000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Per capita hydrocarbon revenues (in US $, 2002) P e r c a p i t a G D P i n s e r v i c e s ( i n U S $ , 2 0 0 2 ) Libya Figure 2.11 : Employment by economic activity (in % of total) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 U r u g u a y V e n e z u e l a , R B C h i l e P a n a m a C o s t a R i c a E s t o n i a L a t v i a S l o v a k R e p u b l i c L i t h u a n i a L i b y a M a l a y s i a Services Industry and construction Agriculture . ( corporate efficiency) . caronfi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \11 . ff fl % ffl flflffl ) ffl\11fifl ( . ffi\0fff % . caronffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 ) ffl\11fifi ( . ) ( . – . . . caronffi . ó \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 fi fl % . Page 57 36 fiffl % . dotaccent fifl . caronff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 . " " . ) . ( caronbreve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 ( Pilat, 2000) : ( i) (ii) (iii) (interaction) (iv) (ICT Technology) . . . caroncaron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 ) ( . . . . caron\1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 . Page 58 37 . : . . ( asset stripping) . carondotaccent . \03 ó \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \1d \03 \03 ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 ) ( " " ( know-how business) . ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 \1a breve % . . (distressed public enterprises) . . caronhungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 . . . (World Bank, 2004) . (total domestic credit) Page 59 38 Figure 2.12 : Domestic credit in % of GDP (2003) 0 20 4 0 60 80 100 120 140 M a l a y s i a P a n a m a U r u g u a y C h i l e E s t o n i a L a t v i a S l o v a k R e p u b l i c S a u d i A r a b i a C o s t a R i c a I r a n A l g e r i a L i b y a L i t h u a n i a V e n e z u e l a , R B ) ffl\11fiffl ( . . . \1afl . \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . (reallocation) . . . . \1afi . \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \1d \03 \03 ƒ \03 . ƒ \03 . . : (i) ( ii) ( iii) . ff breve caron . . Page 60 39 . \1affl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) .( . (i) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ) .( \03 \1affi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 ) ( ] World Bank, 2003a ffl\11caron .([ ( World Bank, 2002) . ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ) .( " " . . ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . Page 61 40 . ffl\11caron : – . . . " " ) .( fi . " " fi\0ffi .% ffl % - . . fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut \1a . . " " ] : ) ( ) ( " [" . fi (indexes) : fihungarumlaut dotaccent ffl . Source: World Bank, 2003a \1aff . ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03? \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 . fihungarumlauthungarumlautdotaccent ) ( ) ffl\11fiffi - ffl \11fiffi ( 15 . 15 \03 ) " " " " " " D. Kaufman, A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi, 2003 ( fflbreve fi dotaccent : . Page 62 41 . . \1abreve \03 \11 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 . . / ) / ( . : \1abreve % \1abreve % ffl breve % / . . Page 63 42 fiffl .2 : Rule of Law 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 L i b y a A l g e r i a N i g e r i a A z e r b a i j a n G e o r g i a R u s s i a T u n i s i a M o r o c c o R o m a n i a B u l g a r i a 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 ) ( Control of Corruption 0 1 0 20 3 0 40 50 60 70 80 90 L i b y a A l g e r i a N i g e r i a A z e r b a i j a n G e o r g i a R u s s i a T u n i s i a M o r o c c o R o m a n i a B u l g a r i a 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 ) ( Governm e nt Effectiveness 0 10 20 30 40 50 6 0 70 8 0 90 100 L i b y a A l g e r i a N i g e r i a A z e r b a i j a n G e o r g i a R u s s i a T u n i s i a M o r o c c o R o m a n i a B u l g a r i a 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 ) ( Ruga latory Qua lity 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 L i b y a A l g e r i a N i g e r i a A z e r b a i j a n G e o r g i a R u s s i a T u n i s i a M o r o c c o R o m a n i a B u l g a r i a 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 ) ( Voice and Accountability 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 L i b y a A l g e r i a N i g e r i a A z e r b a i j a n G e o r g i a R u s s i a T u n i s i a M o r o c c o R o m a n i a B u l g a r i a 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 ) ( ) ( Political Stability 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 L i b y a A l g e r i a N i g e r i a A z e r b a i j a n G e o r g i a R u s s i a T u n i s i a M o r o c c o R o m a n i a B u l g a r i a 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 ) ( \1acaron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 . ) ffl\11\1a .( . " " " " . ) ( . . " " " ." Page 64 43 . \1a\1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 ¾ \03 \03 . . . ffl\11\1a : : ) i ( ) i i ( ) i ii ( . ) ( . \03? \03 . \03 \03 . . . \03\03 \03 \03 ) o ligarchs ( \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ) i nsiders ( . . . . . . (tunnel) . " " . R 1 . : \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¿ \03 \03 \03 \03 R 1 . CIS . . Page 65 44 . ) R 2 ( . . (tunneling) . . . . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . : fflflflffl ( ii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \1adotaccent . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . \1ahungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03? \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \11 fiff % . fffl % caronfl % . ) fflffl dotaccent .(% . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¿ . Page 66 45 dotaccentfl . ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut \1a \1a % dotaccent ffl % . ) \1a \0f\1a ( % ) dotaccent \0fdotaccent ( % ) \1a \0fhungarumlaut ( % ) fi fl .(% breve\0fdotaccent ) % ( ff\0fcaron ) % ( 16 . 17 . \1a % . (real terms) . . dotaccentfi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 ffl\11dotaccent / . . . / . . . . fflfl ffifl % . . . ffl\11fiff : / 16 / / . . 17 fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut dotaccent ) ( . . 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 Basic education Intermediary education Page 67 46 dotaccentffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03¾ \11 dotaccentffl % brevefl % . ffl \1a \0fflflfl fi \0fbreve % . . . . dotaccentffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11\03 \03 : (i) (ii) (iii) . . Page 68 47 \03\1d . dotaccentff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ) ( fffi % ffl flflfl ffl flflff . " " ) ffi\11fi ( fiffl dotaccent % ffl flflfi ffl flflbreve fficaron % " " . ( allocating public resources) ) ( \03 \03 \03 . dotaccentbreve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ffl flflff caron % fihungarumlauthungarumlauthungarumlaut . fflffi ffl flflffi ) .( ) ffi\11fi .( . ffl flflbreve ff\11ffl % . F igure 3.1: International Comparison of Total E xpenditure, % of GDP, average 2000-2004 18 2 4 27 33 36 3 6 41 42 G e o r g i a A z e r b a i j a n T u n i s i a M o l d o v a L a t v i a E s t o n i a L i b y a P o l a n d Figure III. 1: International Comparison Total Expenditure, % of GDP, average 2000-2004 Page 69 48 ffi\11fi : ) fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut hungarumlaut - ffl flflbreve ( : dotaccentcaron . \03 \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 18 fifi % ffl flflffl ffl flflff " " ) ffi\11ffl .( . fihungarumlautdotaccentfi . dotaccent\1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 ffl flflfl ffl flflff dotaccent % ffi\11ffl fiffl % . . ffi\11ffl : %) ( ffl flflffl - ffl flflff 18 \03 . ) caron fl (% . fflflflbreve fflflflff fflflflffi fflflflffl fflflflfi fflflflfl fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut hungarumlaut \03 ffibreve \11\1a \03 ffff \11fl \03 ffff \11caron \03 ffffl \11fffffi\11ffl \03 ffffl \11fiff ff\11ffi \03 ffiffl\11ffi fi\11ffffi \03 ffiffl \0fdotaccent \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 ficaron \11ff fflcaron \11ffl ffibreve \11ffl ffldotaccent \11hungarumlautffl\1a\11breve ffiffl \11fiffi ff\11ffi fflffl\11ffl ffl fi\11fi fflcaron \0ffl fiffi \11dotaccent fiff \11ffi fiff \11ffi ficaron \11breve fiff \11fi fihungarumlaut \11breve fi\1a \11fi fi\1a \0fffl fflfi\0ffl ffl\11caron fifi\11hungarumlaut fflfi\11fi fiffl fl\11ff fiffl \11\1a fiff \11dotaccent ff\11hungarumlautffi\11dotaccent breve\0ffl fihungarumlaut \11ffi fi\1a \11caron hungarumlaut\0fff fiffi \0fcaron \1a fifl\0ffl fifl\0fffl caron\0fhungarumlaut fi\1a \11\1a fibreve \11caron \1a\11ffi fifi\11hungarumlaut fiffl \11fl dotaccent\0fbreve dotaccent\0f\1a breve\0fcaron fi\11caron ffl\11fl ffl\0ffi fi\0fcaron fi\0fbreve fi\0fbreve fi\0fffi Page 70 49 dotaccentdotaccent . \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffl flflff \03\03 ffl\11fi \03 % . breve\11breve ffl flflfl ffl flflbreve . ffl flflbreve ) ( . . fi\11ff % ) ( . fibreve % . dotaccenthungarumlaut . ó \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . ( quasi-fiscal) . ffl flflffi ( free on board price) . ffl flflffi ) fi dotaccent\0fbreve ( % \1a % ) ffi\11ffi ( 19 . 19 \03 fflflflff . fflflflffi fi fflffi % ) breve breve ( % ) fflhungarumlaut .(% \03 (*) hungarumlaut\11\1a breve\11fi ff , caron ff\11ffi fibreve \11dotaccent hungarumlaut\11ffi \1a\11caron ffi\11ffl breve\11\1a breve\11breve ffi\11ffi fi\11caron ficaron \11breve \1a\11dotaccent \1a\11fl ffi\11caron fifi\11caron \1a\11breve \1a\11fi 311.3 580.5 8.5 2.2 0 : \03 ffi\11ffi fi hungarumlaut\11breve fifl\11ffl 241.5 556.2 8.5 2.2 0 : \03 caron\11dotaccent ffi\11fl ffl\11\1a ffl\11fi 243.6 531.9 8.5 2.2 0 : \03 fiffl \11fi \1a\11\1a fi\11hungarumlaut ffi\11hungarumlaut 243.6 507.6 8.5 2.2 0 : \03 hungarumlaut\0fffi 311.3 507.6 8.5 2.2 0 : \03 fiffl \11ffl Page 71 50 ffi\11ffi . (Deadweight loss) fflflflffi %) ( ) $ ( (%) ffl\0f\1a hungarumlaut\0fbreve brevefi\0fcaron hungarumlautbrevebreve\0fdotaccent fflfl\0ffl fl\0fbreve ff\0fdotaccent fflbreve \0fdotaccent ff\1a\1a\0fbreve ffff \0ffl fl\0fff ffl\0fbreve fiffi \0fbreve fflffhungarumlaut\0fbreve fflff \0fffi ... fi\0ffi breve\0f\1a fiflcaron \0fff \1a\0fff fl\0ffi fl\0fcaron ffi\0fffi caronfi\0fff fflffl \0fdotaccent ffi\0f\1a fidotaccent \0fbreve fiflfl\0ffl fidotaccent breve fl\0fcaron : ffi\11fi . hungarumlautfl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) marginal utility ( (marginal revenue) ) ( (efficiency cost) . ) ( ) : G upta et al. , 2002 .( " " ( dead weight loss) (non-linear function) . ffl flflffi (efficiency loss) ffi\0f\1a % ) ffi\11ffi ffi\11fi .( hungarumlautfi . ó \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) ( . ) ffi \0fbreve % ( ( savings) . . Page 72 51 ffi\11fi : * . – . fflflflffi . (International spot prices) ( free on board) fflflflffi . . fflflflffi : fi\0fffl breve caron / . ffi\11ffi . * (Deadweight loss) ) deviation ( ) ( (deadweight welfare loss) ) .( (DWL) . " " (Harbeger, 1964) ( perfectly elastic supply) fi . (linear approximation) ( optimum) ] [ ) .( : DWL= -1/2 r 2 r : r = (p i – p d) / p d p i ) ( p d ) ( (p d * C) / GDP (long-run uncompensated price elasticity of oil demand) - fl\0fbreve . . (price discrepancy) . ) p d p i .( (p i – p d ) / p i . . . fi (magnitude of losses) . Page 73 52 hungarumlautffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 . . (top decile) ffifl % (Gupta el al. , 2002) . . hungarumlautffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . (extra revenues) (NOC) . hungarumlautff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . ( compensation) . . . ffi\11ffl . . Page 74 53 Impact of removal of petroleum subsidies on the CPI - 5 0 5 10 1 5 2 0 25 30 2 003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Baseline S cenario 1 (one-off) Scenariop 2 (gradual) ffi\11ffl : : ) i ( CPI ) (... ) i i ( (iii) (indexation to higher inflation) . ) - ( . ) ( fiflfl % CPI . fflbreve brevefl fiflfl .% ) ( CPI fflcaron % ) : CPI ( . CPI hungarumlaut . % hungarumlautbreve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . (contingent liabilities) ( nonperforming loans) . ) ( . hungarumlautcaron \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . (pay-as-you-go pension system) (government bond) (implicit rate of return) . brevefl % . ) ( . Page 75 54 F igure 3 .2 O R F as s ets a n d o il ex ports re v en u es 1996 - 2003, billion dollars 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 OR F A s s e ts O il ex p or ts rev e n u es C u m u la tive , 199 6 -2 00 3 hungarumlaut\1a . \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 : ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 . . hungarumlautdotaccent . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . hungarumlauthungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fihungarumlauthungarumlautbreve \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 . fihungarumlauthungarumlaut\1a ffl flflfi ffl flflfi . hungarumlaut . ffl flflfl ) ffi\11ffl ( . fiflfl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \0c \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03\0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . ) ( : ƒ \03 ) price-contingent fund ( Page 76 55 ƒ \03 ) ( ƒ \03 " " " " . . (reference value) . . fiflfi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \11 . ffl flflbreve . ffi . fiflffl \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03Ǿ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 (items) ") " " .(" fiflffi \11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 \03 \03\03 \03 fiflff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . " " " " – - ) . ( fiflbreve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . Page 77 56 : ( i) ( ii) . . fiflcaron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . \03\03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 Ë . ) : Barnett and Ossowski, 2002 .( fifl\1a . \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . " " . . " " . fifldotaccent . \03È \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \05 . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¿ \03\05 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) " (" . " " . Intertemporal solvency [ ) ffl ( . . fiflhungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03\05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 (net present value, NPV) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 (government take) (resource price) ( discount rate) . Page 78 57 ) .( fififl . \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) “ upside uncertainty ” ( " " (ultimate recovery) . (upside potential) " . ( projections) . \03 \03 \03 \03 . " " . fififi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11 ffl flflfi \03 ? ffi fl % ffi breve % ffl flflbreve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ) ( ) - ffi \11ffl .( / . . . fififfl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . Page 79 58 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 fififfi : . ffi\11ffi . . . fififf . \03 ? (i) (ii) ffi fl % \1afl % (iii) . . fifibreve . . : . . breveffl % ffl flflffi ) fi\11ffi ( . . . ffi\11ffi : . . . . . . ffi . . . Page 80 59 . . fificaron . \03 \03 \03 \03 . ffl flflfi \11 \03 \03 \03 \03 fifi\1a \03\11\03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11 . . . ffl flflcaron ffl hungarumlaut . fifidotaccent . \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . fifihungarumlaut \11 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 ) .( fiffl fl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 : Page 81 60 ) .( 2 0 . \03 \03 \03 \03 fiffl fi \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 \03 . brevefl % caronfl % . fflfl ) ( ) ffibreve ffl fl ( . \03 fiffl ffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . ) ( . fiffl ffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . \03 . ffl flflfi . fiffl ff \03\11\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fiffl breve \03\11\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ 20 \03 \11 \11 Page 82 61 fflfl ) ( . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fiffl caron \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 . \03\03 . . ffl flflffl ffl flflfi . fiffl \1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . fiffl dotaccent \03 \11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ) ( (daily balance) . . (v) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fiffl hungarumlaut \03\11\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) ( . (International Organization of Suprem Audit Institutions) . . ffiffl fffl . fiffi fl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 : Page 83 62 · ) ffflfl ( ( public audit) · : fi (Compliance audit) ffl (Financial audit) ffi (Performance audit) · · ) ( . fiffi fi . ffl flflffl . . fiffi ffl \03 \11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffi brevefl ffl fl fflflfl ) ( brevefl % ) ffbreve ffl flflcaron ( 21 . . . fiffi ffi . \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ( vi) \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 21 ) ( Page 84 63 fiffi ff \03\11\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11 \1afl % ffifl % . . ffl flflffi \1afl / ffifl . fiffi breve \03\03\11\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 . . . \03 fiffi caron \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11 . . . . . \03 fiffi \1a \03\11\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . . \03 \03 . Page 85 64 fiffi dotaccent . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 . 2 2 . . fiffi hungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 : ƒ \03 ƒ \03 ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fiff fl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 ) ( . . . \1afl % . fiff fi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . ) ( . ) ( . . fiff ffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . 22 \03 . fflflflffl . Page 86 65 . . . fiff ffi . \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03Ç \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 . " " . . " ) " / ( . . . fiff ff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . . fiff breve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 . . . fiff caron . \03 \03 \03¾ \03 ¾ \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 : ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 i. \03\03 \03 \03 \03 Page 87 66 · · · · . · . ii. \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · . · ( MTEF) flffi fl breve · · · . g \03 \03 i. \03\03 \03 \03 \03 · ) ( · \1afl % ffifl % . ii. \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · · · · · · . Page 88 67 \03\1d . fiff \1a . \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ( i) (ii) ) ( (iii) ) ( (iv) . fiff dotaccent . \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . – - . fiff hungarumlaut . ¾ \03? \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ?¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . : ( i) ( ii) ( iii) . fibreve fl . \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \05\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) ( . ) ff\11ffl .( Page 89 68 . fibreve fi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . ff \11fi . . ff\11fi : ƒ \03 breve / fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut \1a . fiflfl % . ) MIGA . ( ƒ \03 458.5 455.6 8.9 2.9 0 : \03 458.5 455.6 8.9 2.9 0 : \03 455.5 455.6 8.9 2.9 0 : \11 ƒ \03 108.1 440.9 8.9 2.9 0 : \03 467.6 426.1 8.9 2.9 0 : \03 . . ƒ \03 ) .. fflfi / fflflflffl fi / fflflflff .( ƒ \03 03 fifl fflbreve breveflfl ) fflfi / fflflflffl fi / fflflflff .( ƒ \03 . fflflflffl . ƒ \03 fihungarumlaut dotaccent \1a fibreve fl . ffl flflfl . ) ffififfi / fflflflffl ( fficaron fl . . . . ƒ \03 ) .( ƒ \03 (marginal corporate tax rates) (upper-income bracket rate) caronfl fffl .% . ƒ \03 (Commercial Agency) . ƒ \03 (Shareholding companies) Page 90 69 ƒ \03 . . fibreve ffl . \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 (micro-enterprises) Ê ) . fi \11ff . ( ff\11fi : fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut ffl - ffl flflbreve \03 fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut ffl - fflflflbreve \03 : fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut ffl - fflflflbreve fibreve ffl . ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ( SME) \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 Å ( small micro-enterprises) \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? . Ê \03\03\03\03\03\03\03\03\03 \03? hungarumlautdotaccent\0fcaron % . ffl flflffi . - . fibreve ffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 breve \12 fihungarumlauthungarumlaut\1a \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 brevefl \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . breve fi hungarumlauthungarumlaut\1a fi dotaccent\1a . breve breve breve fiffi ffl breve hungarumlaut caron % fiffl\1aflfl dotaccentffi % ffidotaccent breveffl ffffl ) ffl\11ff .( Page 91 70 : . ) .( ff\11ffl : ffl flflfl - ffl flflff 4 2 1 87 5 2 38 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 Cancelled projects Approved projects Projects under inception Projects in operations Projects under preparation Source: Libyan Foreign Investment Board (data as of February 2006). . fibreve ff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . fibreve breve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \0c\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 ¾ . . ) ffl\11ff .( : Page 92 71 Investment climate concerns of firms Tax 19% Macroecono mic instability 23% Regulation 10% Policy uncertainty 28% Electricity 2% Corruption 10% Crime 2% Skills 2% Finance 4% · breve · · · · 23 . ffl\11ff : ) : : ( . : . . . : - \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¿ \03 \03 \03 » \03 \03 \1d \03 . . - \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 » \03 » \1d . - \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 » \03 » \03 » \03 » \0c \03\0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03¿ \03\1d . - \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 » \03 » \03¿ » \11 ) .( . 23 \03 ) fi hungarumlautbreve breve ( ) brevedotaccent / fi hungarumlaut\1a fl ( . – fflfi / fflflflffl fflfi / fflflflff - . Page 93 72 . . . . : World Bank 2004. fibreve caron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . ) ( \03 ( declarative basis) . . . . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¿ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¿ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \0c \03\0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 Ë \03 (LFIB) . fibreve \1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 breve \11 . ) ( . fibreve dotaccent . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . dotaccent breve " \03 \11\11\11 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03? \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03? \11\11\11\11\11 " " " ( GPC) . breve . Page 94 73 fibreve hungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 . ) brevefl ( . ficaron fl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . ) .( ficaron fi . \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \1d \03 \03 · ¾ \03 . . . . · \03 \03\11 . · \03 \03 . . . · \03 . (flat tax) ) ffi\11ff .( Page 95 74 ) fffl % ff % . ( ffi\11ff : . · . . fibreve % ffl flfl\0fflflfl ) fibreve breve \0fflflfl $ ( fffl % . ) ( . · . " " (deemed profit) " " . ) " " ( . . " " . . · . ff % . fffl % ffff % . ficaron ffl \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03\03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03\11 ? \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? . . . . Page 96 75 . ficaron ffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? . \03 ficaron ff . \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 : · \03 . . . · \03 \03 \03 . . . . . · \03 . ) caron . ( \03 · \03 \03 \03¾ \03 . . . \03 Page 97 76 · \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . \03 ficaron breve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . . . . ficaron caron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03Ç \03Ç \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . breve 24 " " . . . . . : ( i) ( ii) ( iii) . ficaron \1a \03 \11 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 . . breve 24 \1a ffl flflffi ) ( breve \11 \03 Page 98 77 . breve . ficaron dotaccent \03 \11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 brevefl \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . \03 (i) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 breve \03 \03 \0c \03\0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \1d ficaron hungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . breve . " \03 \11\11\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03? \03? \03? \11\11\11\11 " GPC . ) ( . breve : · / · ) ] [ · . fi\1a fl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) ff\11ff ( Page 99 78 ) ( " " ( “greenfield” investment) ) .( . ff\11ff : . (static gains) hungarumlaut\0fff % . caron (merchandise trade) ] : [ . – - . . / . . " " " " (GATS) . . " " . " ) : ( ) ( . ) ( fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut dotaccent ) ( . . . . ffff % fflflflfi fibreve % fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut fl . . . . Page 100 79 . fi\1a fi . \03 \03 \03 \03 ( System of positive list) \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 breve ( negative list system) ... " ) .( ) ( . . \03¿ . \0c \03\0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \1d \03 fi\1a ffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 breve \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03¾ \03 \03 25 . \0c \03\0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \1d fi\1a ffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \12 \03 \03 . 26 . ) .( caron flfl\0fflfl 25 \03 fihungarumlaut\1afl ) ( ffhungarumlaut % (joint venture) ) .( ] [ . 26 " " ) ( breve . Page 101 80 (limited liability company) (joint-stock company) . . . . . fi\1a ff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \11 . \03 \03 \03 \03 ¿ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 Ÿ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . breve . fi\1a breve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03¾ ¾ \03 \03 \03 . / fihungarumlauthungarumlautcaron fihungarumlauthungarumlaut\1a . ffl flflffi . . . . . . (ii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fi\1a caron . \03 \03 \03 breve \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \1d \03 Page 102 81 · ) ficaron . ( · ) fiffl .( . · . breve ) fflbreve ( . . · ) fiffl " ( ." . . · ) fibreve .( · ) fflff . ( fi\1a \1a . ¾ \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 " . \03 ( iii) \03 \03 \03 \03 fi\1a dotaccent . \03 \03 \03 breve \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . fifl " : " · (tax holiday) . . · \03 breve . · (exices taxes) . fi\1a hungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . Page 103 82 . : . fidotaccent fl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03? ) .( . . : i ( ii ( i ii ( iv ( v ( vi ( vii ( . fidotaccent fi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 . ... . . ( tax credits) ( allowance) (accelerated depreciation) . fidotaccent ffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \1d \03 · · / · ) t ax holidays . ( fidotaccent ffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) Page 104 83 ( ) .( . fidotaccent ff . ó \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \11 ) ( . . . . Page 105 84 . fidotaccent breve . \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \1afl \03\08\03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 . ... . ) ( . . ) .( / . ) ( " " . fidotaccent caron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffl flflfl \03? ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \05 \03 ¾ \03 \05 . . . fficaronfl ) ( . . ffl flflfi . fidotaccent \1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . fifl % . . ffl flflff Page 106 85 . . fidotaccent dotaccent . \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . fidotaccent hungarumlaut \11 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 ffl flflffi \03 . : . fihungarumlaut fl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \1d \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03?¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . fihungarumlaut fi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \11 ) breve\11ff .( " " . \03 · \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 Ê \03 \03¾ \03 \03 . . . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¿ \11 Page 107 86 · \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 (allocate) . \03 · \03 \03 \03¾ ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . : (i) ) ( (ii) (iii) ) ( (iv) (v) . \03 · \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) ( . \03 · \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ( receipt) . \03 · ? ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 . : ( i) (ii) ( iii) . Page 108 87 \03 breve\11ff : : . . : : ™ \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03¿ \03 \03 \03 (diffuse ownership of vouchers) . . . . : ) ( . ™ \03 \03 \03 . . . . ) ( " " . . ™ \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \05 . (insiders) ffi fl % . . . : ) ( . ) ( (disclosure standards) . (takeover) . . . : Page 109 88 Transition, the first ten years: analysis and lessons for Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, World Bank, 2002. \1a . \03 (i) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fihungarumlaut ffl . \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 27 ( licenses) . ) ( . : (raw gold) . fi dotaccent ) ffifi ffl flflffi .( ) ... .( . fihungarumlaut ffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffl flflffl \03\11 . fihungarumlaut ff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 . ) fflbreve % brevefl % ( . ffl % 28 29 \03 . . ff % ) ff fflbreve ( % : 30 . 27 \03 fflflflffi fi flfl \03 % ffffl breve % . ficaron \11breve % fi\1a % fflflflffl fflflflffl fihungarumlaut \11hungarumlaut % \03 28 ffl flflbreve \03 \1d fi fl fi breve ffl fl ffl breve ffi fl ff fl breve fl \03 % ffl ffi breve % . \03 29 fi caron\11breve \03 % fidotaccent \11breve % fflflflffi fihungarumlaut \11hungarumlaut fflffi \11ff % . . 30 \03\11 \11 Page 110 89 . fihungarumlaut breve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 ) \1acaron ffl flflffi ( ) ff ( ffl flflbreve fflhungarumlaut\11fi % fflcaron\11breve % ffl flflffi ffl % ffl\11caron % ffl flflffi . (trade nomenclature ) \03 ) ( . (HS 6 digit) . fihungarumlaut caron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 (tariff rates ) . . . . fihungarumlaut \1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \0c \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 \03 . . . . ( nominal tarrif) . ) \03 \0b . fihungarumlaut dotaccent . \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 (tariff dispersion) \03 . . . Page 111 90 . . (tariff bands) . . fihungarumlaut hungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03? . / . ) ( . . . fflflfl . \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03?¾ \03 \03 . . ( World Bank, 2003a) . fflflfi . \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 . ffl flflfl fflffifl 31 : (i) fi % " " ( ii) fifl ( sea shipment) . caron ( sea freight) ffl ff ff . . 31 \03 : - ) \03 ffl flflffi \03 Zarrouk \11 \0b Page 112 91 \03 (ii) \03 \03 \03 \05\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 fflflffl . \03 \03 \05\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . . . . fflflffi . \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . " " ( MFTR) : · · ) ( ) ( · ) ( . fflflff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ?¾ " " . . Page 113 92 fflflbreve . \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . " " . : · \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . " " - - . · \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11 . " " . . · \03 \03 " " . . . \03 \03 \03 . " " . . Page 114 93 fflflcaron . \03 \03¾ \03 \03 . . " " . . fflfl\1a . \03 \03 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 . " ) " .( · . . . . · . . · . . fflfldotaccent . \03 \03 \03 . " " (Information Technology Agreement) (Government Procurement Agreement) " ." \03 ( iii) \03 \03 \03 \03 Page 115 94 fflflhungarumlaut . \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . " " . fflfifl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 . : 32 ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 (post clearance audit) . / ) ( . ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . : (selected consignments) (compliance record) . \03 ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 (compliance management) \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 . . . \03\03 ¿ \03 \03 \03 \03 32 \03 " " (IMF) fflflflff (IMF, 2004) . " " . " ." Page 116 95 . \03 ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 . \03 ƒ \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 . ) ( . \03 ƒ \03 \03 . fflfifi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \1d \03 \03 ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¿ \03 \03 \03¿ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . ffi breve ƒ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . fflfiffl . ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 : g \03 \03 \03 \03 ( iii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · · ) : .( Page 117 96 · : ( i) ( ii) (iii) ) ( ( iv) (v) . · . (iv) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · . · . · breve . · . · " ." g \03 \03 \03 \03 ( iii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · . · breve . · . · . · . · . (iv) \03\03\03\03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · ) .( Page 118 97 · : . · . · . · . · . · . Page 119 98 \03\1d 467.3 643.0 7.6 1.9 0 : \03 . fflfiffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . : - fi ffl flflbreve ffl ffl flflbreve - - - fflfi - - ) ( - ) VIII ( - - - - (balance sheet) - - - (equities market) . fflfiff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . Page 120 99 . : \03 (i) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fflfibreve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ . (small stock) (outstanding government securities) . ) .( fiff (aggregate assets) ff fl\0fffl breve . caronfl % . \1a / brevefl % . (non-performing loans, NPLs) . \03 \03 (ii) \03 \03 \03 fflficaron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11 ) ( ) fiff fi fiffi\1affi ( ) ( ) brevecaron ( . \03 \03 \03 fflfi\1a \11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03? \03\11 . . . \03 \03 Page 121 100 \03 (iii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fflfidotaccent . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . . \03 (iv) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fflfihungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffdotaccent \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . " " (National Banking Corporation, NBC) ) .(... \03 ) ( . . " " ) fflfi ( \03 . . \03 (v) \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \0c \03\03 \03 \0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fflfflfl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 (distressed assets) . . . – - ( credit Page 122 101 underwriting) ( repayment standards) . \03 (vi) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fflfflfi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 \03 . (holdings) . . ... - . ( diluting ownership) (anticipated outcomes) . \03 (vii) \03 \03 ¿ \03 \03¿ \03 \03 \03 \1d \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fflfflffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 (channel savings) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . (micro-) . . fflfflffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03\11 Page 123 102 . " ) " fi\11breve ( . fi\11breve : fihungarumlautdotaccentfi . fiflfl % breve % breve caron . \1a\0fbreve .% ffffi ffflfl . (equity shares) . . ffifl fiflfl kDA fiflfl fiflflfl kDA DA . . fflflflffi hungarumlautflfl (repayment rates) \1abreve .% (collateralized assets) . (deposit products) (letters of credit) . fflflflfi 03 . (Dinar amount) 199.5 394.2 8.9 2.9 0 : \03 . – - . (allocation) . . . (credential) . fflfflff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 . . / . . . Page 124 103 fflfflbreve . \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03¾ \03 . . \03 ¿ \03 \03 \03? \03¿ . " " 3 3 . . . \03 ( viii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fflfflcaron \11 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? . ) ( . . . fflffl\1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . (budgetary operations) (monetary outcome) . . . \03 (ix) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fflffldotaccent . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . fi % . (equity market) . (debt market) ) 33 \03 \03 ( Attestation of non-indebtness) \11 Page 125 104 (stock) ( outstanding government securities) . ] [ ( mortgage bond) (corporate bonds) (collective investment) . . . fihungarumlaut\1afl . . ) ( . . . \03 (i) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¿ \03 \03 fflfflhungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . 34 . fflffifl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ( credit risk) ) non- performing loans ( . ) ( . (bank inspection) . fflffifi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \11 34 \03 . Page 126 105 . . . fflffiffl . \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11 . . (compliance unit) . . fflffiffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . fflffiff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . ( ii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \1d fflffibreve . \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 . (credit deterioration) . . fflfficaron . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 . Page 127 106 . \03 \03 \03 (iii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¿ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fflffi\1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 \03 . . fflffidotaccent . \03 \03 ffihungarumlautfi \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ffibrevefl \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 . ff . . fflffihungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \11 ) .( . ffdotaccent . fflfffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\1d (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) . fflfffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 : Page 128 107 g \03 \03 \03 ( i) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · . · . · . (ii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · . · . · ) ( . · . g \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ( i) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · . · · (ii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · . · . \03 \03\1d fflffffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . . Page 129 108 fi . 35 fflffffi . \03 \03¾ \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03¾ . . . . ffi . fflffff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 . ) \1afl % ( . . . ) ( . ffl flflffi . fflffbreve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . ) fi\11caron .( . 35 \03 . (micro-project initiatives) . . Page 130 109 fi\11caron : . . . ) ( . . . . . (placement) . . . . . . . . . . . . . fflffcaron . \03 \03 \03? \03? \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03¾ \03¾ \03 \03 . . ] trade-offs [ . Page 131 110 fflff\1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . ) ( . ffl . : fflffdotaccent . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \1abreve \03\08\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03? fi\0fff \03\08\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . fibreve % ) fi caron\0fbreve % self-employed .( . . . fflffhungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03¾ \03 . ) ( breve\0fbreve % ) fi\11caron .( ) ( brevefl % . 36 . . fihungarumlaut \0fcaron - fl \0fdotaccent % - . (dependency ratio) . fi\11caron 36 \03 . (actuarial valuation) . Page 132 111 %) ( : \03 fflbrevefl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ffl flflffi fi fifi\0fdotaccent . . ffdotaccent . . breve\0fff . . ) ( fl ,16 % . (moratoria) . ffl flflffi fiflfl\0fhungarumlaut . . . fflbrevefi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ? \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 . (heterogeneity) ( function) / . . . ) ( ) .( . . fflbreveffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ff \0f\1a % . dotaccent % . . . . . 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 D jibouti Private Sector D jibouti Civil Servants L ebanon Civil Servants T unisia Self Employed Egypt Integrated Morocco Military Lebanon Military Morocco Private Sector Y emen Private Sector Y emen Public Sector W BG (Gaza) W BG (West) M orocco Contractual Workers J ordan Integrated A lgeria Selfemployed Tunisia Private Sector Algeria Integrated Morocco Civil Servants B ahrain Military L ibya Civil Servants L ibya Private Sector/SOEs T unisia Public Sector I ran Civil Servants B ahrain Private Sector B ahrain Civil Servants Iran Private Sector WBG (Military) P ercentage average earnings 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 D jibouti Civil Servants W BG (Gaza) B ahrain Private Sector E gypt Integrated Djibouti Private Sector Tunisia Self Employed Morocco Contractual Workers Bahrain Civil Servants M orocco Civil Servants A lgeria Integrated J ordan Integrated Y emen Private Sector Y emen Public Sector I ran Private Sector A lgeria Selfemployed Morocco Private Sector Tunisia Public Sector Libya Private Sector/SOEs I ran Civil Servants T unisia Private Sector W BG (Military) L ibya Civil Servants B ahrain Military M orocco Military W BG (West) Lebanon Civil Servants Lebanon Military R eal Implicit Rate of Return (% per year) Long term sustainable level Page 133 112 fflbreveffi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . : (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) . . fflbreveff . \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 37 . . . \03 \03 \03 \03 38 . (reallocations) ( employability) . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 . . fflbrevebreve . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 (Economic Transformation Fund, ETF) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \0c\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\11\0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . : 37 \03 ) dotaccentbreve ( . . 38 . . – - . . (eligibility) ] [ . . Page 134 113 - fibreve \0fflflfl ffi . . . . . fflbrevecaron . \03? \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03¾ \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 . . . ff . fflbreve\1a . \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 : . : . (labor supply) . \0c \03\0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 fflbrevedotaccent . \03 ? \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ( caloric intake) . . fflbrevehungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ó ¾ \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . Page 135 114 fflcaronfl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 breve \03\08\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . fflcaronfi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03? \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 (targeted transfers) : 39 . \03 . . fflcaronffl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ . : . \0c \03\0b \03 \03 \03 \0c \03 \03 \0b 40 fflcaronffi . \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . caronfl ) % ffl\11caron .( . 39 \03 . ffi\0fffi flfl . ffl\0ffiflfl " ") " (" " ." \03 40 \03 . . Page 136 115 ffl\11caron : : : " " fflcaronff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 º \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 . ) ( . ffl flflffi . ) :( (i) ) ( (ii) ) ( (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) . fflcaronbreve . \03 º \03 \03 \03 \1d \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03¾º ) .( ] (metering) [ . (preferences) . 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Domestic Small agriculture Large agriculture Small industry Large industry Commercial State official Street lighting Price by Kwh (LYD) CONSUMER SUBSIDY Page 137 116 . subsidy - c ross . \0c \03\0b \03 fflcaroncaron . \03 \03 \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 41 . : ) ( . . fiffl ffl breve % 42 . fflcaron\1a . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 º \03 º \03 º ¾ . ) ( . . : ( i) ( ii) ( iii) (repayments) . \03 \0c \03\0b \03 \03 \03 fflcarondotaccent . \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03\11 ) ( . 43 . . . \03 41 \03 . 42 " " (utility fees) . 43 : (earmarked transfers) . Page 138 117 fflcaronhungarumlaut . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 º \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03 \03 \03 ( calorie content) " ." . . \03 ffl\1afl . \03 \03 \03 ¾ \03 \03 . . : ffl\1afi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . ffl flflffi . . ffl\1affl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 É \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . - . ffl\1affi . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . ffl\1aff . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03? \03 \03 : \03 g \03 \03 \03 ( i) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · . · . (ii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · . · . Page 139 118 g \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ( i) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · . · . · . (ii) \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · . · . · . · . \03 Page 140 1 fi \11 " " ) ( " " . " ." . . fflflcaron fl . fflfiflfl ) " (" . fflflcaron fl fflflcaron fl . caronfl % ) caronffi \0fbreve % .( ) ( . : fidotaccent $ fflbreve $ ffiffl $ ff .% . ffihungarumlaut . ) ffff ffhungarumlaut ( 44 . fiff breve fl ffi . fihungarumlaut flfl ffi ffl breveflfl ffi . . . 44 U.S. Geological Survey , 2000. Page 141 2 fflflcaronfl ) ffl flflffi $ ( brevebreve $ fflbreve $ fflbreve $ / breve breve fl\11brevehungarumlautffl ffflffi\11dotaccent ffi ffl fflbreve breve\11caron flbreve ffihungarumlaut caronflcaron\11fiflfi ffff ff\11ffl ffi breve ffl dotaccent fl\11dotaccentdotaccent\1a ffff caronbreve hungarumlaut\11fiflfi ffdotaccent ffi\11ffi dotaccent \1a ffiflbreve\11ff ff hungarumlaut ffhungarumlaut fflffi fl $ ficaron \1a $ fifl\1a $ / caron \1a\11fibrevebreve ff dotaccent\11hungarumlaut\1afi ffi fi\11caronhungarumlautffl fiff breve fl ffi dotaccent hungarumlaut\11fflhungarumlautffi caron breve\11flbrevecaron ffffl \11flfiff fihungarumlaut flfl ffi fifi\1a \11ffl fiffi dotaccent breve\11ffiffldotaccent breve breve \11flflff fflbreveflfl ffi caronfi\1a\11\1a ff dotaccent ffffl breve\11dotaccent flffi ffldotaccent \1a\11ffl hungarumlaut caron caronhungarumlaut breve\11ffi hungarumlaut ff breveflhungarumlaut\11ffl hungarumlaut fl ffiffl ffl\11hungarumlaut flffl \1a\1a \1a\11flficaron brevecaron dotaccent\11\1a ficaron ffi caron fl\11ffbreveffl ffl flflbreve $ / fflflflbreve $ / fi flflfl ffi ff % = caronfl\0ffl % \03\03 \03 \03 ) .( fflflcaronfl breveflhungarumlaut fflflflbreve . ffldotaccent \1a \1a\1a \1a (bulk of revenue) . fflflflff . ffihungarumlaut % caronfl % \1affl . % breve $ fl\0fbreve fl $ (btu) . dotaccenthungarumlaut % ) ( caroncaron ffi ffifl % . caronfl % ffff\1a . Page 142 3 . 4 5 . . ) ( . - - (reserve-to-production ratio, R/P) fifl fibreve ) " " .( fihungarumlaut breve fl fflbreve fi hungarumlautbrevefl fi hungarumlauthungarumlaut ff fflff 46 . / fifl . fflflflcaron fflfi / . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . fibreve fl fi fiflfl . . 47 . . . . . " " ( Oil & Gas Journal) . fflflflff / R/P ratio caron \1a ) fffi ( fiflfl 48 . ) stranded gas ( ( 45 \03 Adelman, M. \03 A. The Economics of Petroleum Supply, \03 MIT Press, 1991. 46 Streifel, Shane S. Review and Outlook for the World Oil Market , World Bank Discussion Paper 301, 1995. 47 Watkins, G. C. and Shane Streifel, World Crude Oil Resources: Evidence from Estimating Supply Function for 41 Countries, Policy Research Working Paper 1756, World Bank, 1997. 48 \03 BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Jun 2005. \03 US Crude Oil Production (mb/d) 0 2 4 6 8 10 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Page 143 4 / ffiflfl caron flfl . fflfiffi B P . " " brevebreve ffl flcaron fl ) .( breve % ) specific pools .( ) fi\0fcaron % fihungarumlaut \1a fl ] [ .( fflfiflfl . . . . . . . caronfl % . . fflbreve breve breve $ . ffl flflffl . brevebreve $ . " " fflbreve $ " " " " (floor price) ffifl $ . fflflfifl fi hungarumlaut\0fffi $ / fi\1a \0fcaron $ / fihungarumlautdotaccentcaron fi hungarumlauthungarumlaut hungarumlaut . fflflfifl . . (supply costs) . . (supply side) ( royalties) . ) " ( ." . \03\03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \0c \03 \03 \03 \03 \0c\03\03\0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \0b \03 Page 144 5 \0c ffihungarumlaut \0b \0c \0c \03\0b ffi hungarumlaut \0b \0c ffl flflbreve \03 $ m \0c \03\0b ffff l \0b \0c \0c ffff \0b \0c ffl flflbreve \03 $ m \0c \03\0b ffhungarumlaut \0b \0c \0c\03\0b ffhungarumlaut \0b Libya Oil Production (million barrels) (Reserves 39 Bbbl) 0 500 1000 1500 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 7 0000 A nnual Government Oil Revenue (2005 $m) (Reserves 39 Bbbl) 0 10000 2 0000 30000 4 0000 50000 6 0000 70000 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Libya Oil Production (million barrels) (Reserves 44 Bbbl) 0 500 1000 1500 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Annual Annual G overnment Oil Revenue (2005 $m) (Reserves 44 Bbbl) 0 10000 20000 3 0000 40000 50000 60000 70000 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Libya Oil Production (million barrels) (Reserves 49 Bbbl) 0 500 1000 1500 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 Annual Annual Government Oil Revenue (2005 $m) (Reserves 49 Bbbl) 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Page 145 6 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \0c \03 \03 \0c\03\03\0b \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \0b \0c fiff flfl ffi \0b \0c fi ffflfl ffi \0b \0c ffl flflffi \03 $ m \0c \03\0b fihungarumlaut flfl ffi \0b \0c fihungarumlaut flfl ffi \0b \0c ffl flflffi \03 $ m \0c \03\0b fflbreve flfl ffi \0b \0c fflbreveflfl ffi \0b Libya Gas Production (Reserves 1400 BCM) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Annual Government Gas Revenue (2005 $ m) ( Reserves 1400 BCM) 0 2000 4 000 6000 8 000 10000 1 960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Libya Gas Production (Reserves 1900 BCM) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Annual Annual Government Gas Revenue (2005 $ m) (Reserves 1900 BCM) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Libya Gas Production (Reserves 2500 BCM) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Annual Annual Government Gas Revenue (2005 $ m) (Reserves 2500 BCM) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Page 146 7 . Ë . " " . " " . (shut-in production) . . . . \03\03 \03 " " (output) . " " . " " " " . " " . " " . " " ) ( (optimum growth path) . " " . . . (supply curves) (outward) . . " " . \03 \03 \03 \03 " " . . . " " " " . ) Page 147 8 " (" . " " (shut-in) . . . . ) physical ( . ffihungarumlaut . fflflcaronfl . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . . . . ) ( . " " . (spot market) . " " (trade-off of lower production) . Page 148 9 ffl \03 \11 : · · \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¾ \03¾ \03 (NPV 0 ) ( N) : å = + = N t t t r Z NPV 0 0 ) 1 ( Z t \03 (projected value) ( discount factor, r ) ( projected extraction volume) (path for the real price) ( ratio to the GDP deflator) . \03 \03 \03 \03¿ \03 ) 0 Z ( \03 \03 \03 N (NPV 0 ) . : 0 0 0 0 ) 1 ( NPV r Z r Z t t = = + å ¥ = 0 0 NPV r Z = ) .( . \03 \03 \03 \03 : 0 Z Z S t t - = Page 149 10 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ) :( t t t t t z g b r b -- + + - = D - t g g 1 ) 1 ( ) ( : b t = t t \03 = g t = ) ( t z = t . \03 g \03 = (projected long-term GDP growth rate) . t t t g - = t s : t t t t z b r b -- + - = D - s g g 1 ) 1 ( ) ( . (b 0 ) ) 0 z ( ( s t ) – ( 0 z + s t ) : å ¥ = - + + £ 0 0 0 ) 1 ( t t t r z b g s : r- g> 0 \03 ; ) l t s = - = t t t g \0b \03 \11 : g l - + £ r z b 0 0 : 0 0 ) ( zb r £ - + - g l Page 150 11 / (constant debt-to-output ratio) . Page 151 12 ffi \03 \11 : ) ( \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ) ( ) ( \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 (in-kind benefits) ] voucher [ . . . ) ( \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 ) (... ) (... . ) ( \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 . \03 \03 \03 \03 ) ( . . ) ( (vulnerability) . . Page 152 13 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 · \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \03¿ \03¿ \03 · \03 \03 \03 \03 \03 \0c \03 \0b ... . · \03 \03 \03 \03 . . \05 \03 \03 \05 4 9 \05 \03 \03 \03 \03 \05 breve fl % / . . 49 ) ( . Page 153 14 ff fflflflffi fflflflbreve \03 fflflflbreve fflflflffi 25 2 30 2 25 2 30 5 25 2 35 5 25 2 30 5 25 2 fibreve ffi 25 2 30 breve ffibreve ffi fflfl 2 25 2 30 2 25 2 fflfl ffi 25 2 fflbreve 3 fflbreve 3 20 3 25 2 25 3 25 2 25 2 25 2 20 2 40 2 15 2 25 2 25 2 20 2 50 ffi 25 2 25 2 25 2 20 2 caron 10 2 30 2 25 2 ffifl 2 25 2 50 ffi \03\12 25 2 fflbreve ffl 25 3 25 2 50 5 25 5 50 2 25 2 25 3 25 2 25 3 25 2 25 3 10 3 25 2 30 2 - - 25 2 25 2 25 2 30 2 fl\11\1a breve ffflfl 25 2 30 2 \03\12 \03\11\11\11 fflflflbreve \03\03 25 2 25 3 10 3 25 3 Page 154 15 25 2 \03 Page 155 16 fflflflbreve fflflflffi 25 2 fflbreve 2 25 2 fflfl 2 25 2 20 2 fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fi\11breve fflbreve ffl fffl ffl fflfl ffl 25 2 30 2 25 2 30 3 25 2 40 2 fflbreve ffl fffl ffl fflbreve ffl fibreve ffl 25 ffi 25 2 fibreve 3 25 2 25 2 25 2 25 2 25 2 25 2 fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl 25 2 25 3 25 2 30 3 fflbreve ffl 20 2 caronfl 25 2 25 2 25 2 25 2 fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fffl ffl fflbreve ffl ffifl breve fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffi ffl \03 - fifi \03 - fibreve fflfl ffl fflbreve ffi fifl ffi \03\12 \1a fifl ffi ffi\11breve ffifl fflbreve ffi \12 hungarumlaut fflcaron fflbreve ffl \03\12 fflbreve ffl \03\12 fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl ffifl breve \03\12 \03 Page 156 17 fflflflbreve fflflflffi fflbreve ffl \12 fiflflfl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl fflbreve ffl brevefl ffl ffiflflfl \03 C C brevefl ffl fflbreve fl \03 C C brevefl ffl \1abreve brevefl ffl brevefl ffl brevefl ffl brevefl ffl brevefl ffl brevefl ffl brevefl ffl brevefl ffl brevefl ffl brevefl ffl \03\1d hungarumlaut\1a ffl flflffi fi fiff ffl flflbreve \03 Page 157 18 1. ffifi / fflflflffi . 2. fflfi / fflflflffl . 3. ffl caron fiffi \1a ffl ) .( 4. breve / fi hungarumlauthungarumlaut\1a fl fi / ffl flflfl fl ff / ffl flflff . 5. ffl flflff . 6. fflflflffl - ffl flflffi . 7. fflflflffl . 8. ffl flflffl - ffl flflffi . 9. : ffl flflfi . 10. : fflflflfi . 11. fflflflff . 12. ffl flflffi . 13. Arabsheibani G. Reza and Lamine Manfor 2002: From Farashia to militaru uniform: male-female wage differentials in Libya, Economic Development and Cultural change, July, Vol. 50, no. 4 14. Barnett S., R. Ossowski, 2002. “Operational aspects of fiscal policy in oil- producing countries”, IMF Working Paper No 02/177, Washington DC. 15. Gupta S., B. Clements, K. Fletcher, G. Inchauste, 2002. “Issues in domestic petroleum pricing in oil-producing countries”, IMF Working Paper No 02/140, Washington DC. 16. Harberger, A., 1964. “Taxation, Resource Allocation, and Welfare”, in The Role of Direct and Indirect Taxes in the Federal Revenue System , NBER and The Brookings Institution, Princeton University Press. 17. IMF, 2003, Staff report for the Article IV Consultation with Libya, July. 18. IMF, 2006, staff report for the article IV Consultation with Libya, March. Page 158 19 19. IMF, 2004. “Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya: An Agenda for Strengthening Tax Policy and Revenue Administration”, March. 20. Kaufmann D., A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi, 2003. Governance Matters III: Governance Indicators for 1996-2002. http://info.worldbank.org/governance/kkz2002/ . 21. Library of Congress, 1987. Country Studies, Libya, Federal Research Division, http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/lytoc.html 22. Pilat D., 2000. “Innovation and productivity in services—state of the art”, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Directorate for Science, Technology, and Industry, Paris. 23. World Bank, 2002, Transition: The First Ten Years, Washington DC. 24. World Bank, 2003a, “Better Governance for Development in the Middle East and North Africa”, Washington DC. 25. World Bank, 2003b, “Trade, Investment, and Development in the Middle East and North Africa: Engaging with the World”, The World Bank, Washington DC. 26. World Bank, 2003c, “Gender and Development in the Middle east and North Africa: Women in the Public Space”, Washington DC. 27. World Bank, 2003d, “Unlocking the employment potential in the Middle east and North Africa: Toward a New Social Compact”, Washington DC. 28. World Bank, 2003e, Doing Business in 2004: Understanding Regulation , Washington D.C. 29. World Bank, 2003f, People’s Democratic Republic of Algeria: A Medium-Term Macroeconomic Strategy for Algeria , Washington DC, Report No 26005-AL. 30. World Bank, 2004. World Development Report 2005; A Better Investment Climate for Everyone , Washington DC. Page 159 20