Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00004291 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT IDA-46510 AND IDA-51930 ON A CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 84.1 MILLION (US$130 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA FOR A RWANDA ELECTRICITY ACCESS SCALE-UP AND SECTOR WIDE APPROACH (SWAP) DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ( P111567 ) SEPTEMBER 30, 2018 Energy and Extractives Global Practice Africa Region Page 1 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective July 31, 2017) Currency Unit = Rwanda Francs (RWF) RWF 832 = US$1 US$1.408 = SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AF Additional Financing AfDB African Development Bank BADEA Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa BLJSR Backward Looking Joint Sector Review BTC Belgian Technical Corporation CAS Country Assistance Strategy CCI Connection Cost Index CFL Compact Fluorescent Lamp EARP Electricity Access Rollout Program EASSDP Electricity Access Scale-Up and Sector Wide Approach Development Project EDCL Electricity Development Company Limited EDPRS Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return ELECTROGAZ Electricity Water and Gas Authority EPC Engineering, Procurement, and Construction ENPV Economic Net Present Value ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ESSP Energy Sector Strategic Plan eSWAp Energy Sector-wide Approach EU European Union EUCL Electricity Utility Company Limited EWSA Electricity, Water, and Sanitation Authority FM Financial Management FLJSR Forward Looking Joint Sector Review GoR Government of Rwanda HV High Voltage ESMP Environment and Social Management Plan ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report Page 2 IEG Independent Evaluation Group IFC International Finance Corporation IP-2009 Rwanda Electricity Sector Access Program Investment Prospectus (Castalia) ISR Implementation Status and Results Report JSR Joint Sector Review LV Low Voltage MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MINECOFIN Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning MININFRA Ministry of Infrastructure MOU Memorandum of Understanding MTF Multi-Tier Framework MTR Midterm Review MV Medium Voltage M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NEAP National Electricity Access Program NGO Nongovernmental Organization NST National Strategy for Transformation OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PAD Project Appraisal Document PAP Project Affected Person PIE Project Implementation Entity PDO Project Development Objective PIU Project Implementation Unit PV Photovoltaics RAP Resettlement Action Plan RECO Rwanda Electricity Corporation REG Rwanda Energy Group RESSP Rwanda Electricity Sector Strengthening Project RPF Resettlement Policy Framework RURA Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Authority SAIDI System Average Interruption Duration Index SAIFI System Average Interruption Frequency Index SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SWH Solar Water Heater STEG Tunisian Society for Electricity and Gas SWAp Sector Wide Approach SWER Single Wire Earth Return SWG Sector Working Group UERP Urgent Electricity Rehabilitation Project UNOPS United Nations Office for Project Services Page 3 Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Carlos Felipe Jaramillo Senior Global Practice Director: Riccardo Puliti Practice Manager: Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee Task Team Leader(s): Yadviga Viktorivna Semikolenova, Norah Kipwola ICR Main Contributor: Norah Kipwola Page 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ....................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 6 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................6 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) ..................................... 12 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 16 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................ 16 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...................................................................................... 16 C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 22 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .................................................................... 24 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ............................................................................ 24 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 31 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 36 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 36 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 37 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 40 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 43 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 45 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 50 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 58 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 60 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 61 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 65 ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS .................................................................................. 87 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide P111567 Approach (SWAp) Development Project Country Financing Instrument Rwanda Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Related Projects Relationship Project Approval Product Line Additional Financing P126489-Rwanda 19-Feb-2013 IBRD/IDA Electricity Access additional Financing Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency REG-EDCL, Energy Development Corporation Limited MINECOFIN (EUCL) Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The project development objective is to improve access to reliable and cost-effective electricity services for households and priority public institutions Page 1 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 70,000,000 70,000,000 69,153,475 IDA-46510 60,000,000 60,000,000 55,343,051 IDA-51930 Total 130,000,000 130,000,000 124,496,526 Non-World Bank Financing Borrower 0 0 0 OPEC FUND 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 Total 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 Total Project Cost 140,000,000 140,000,000 134,496,526 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 15-Oct-2009 09-Jun-2010 16-Jul-2012 31-Jan-2014 30-Mar-2018 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 25-May-2016 102.94 Change in Implementing Agency Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Legal Covenants Change in Institutional Arrangements Change in Implementation Schedule 25-May-2017 117.47 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 21-Nov-2017 121.38 Change in Results Framework Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Page 2 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 11-Dec-2009 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0 02 01-Jun-2010 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0 03 24-Mar-2011 Satisfactory Satisfactory 9.16 04 18-Oct-2011 Satisfactory Satisfactory 23.74 05 13-Jun-2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory 31.80 06 28-Dec-2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory 39.05 07 07-Jul-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory 44.61 08 17-Dec-2013 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 51.50 09 21-Jun-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 60.39 10 07-Jan-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 75.90 11 21-Oct-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 91.35 12 26-May-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 102.94 13 29-Nov-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 114.05 14 28-Jun-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 118.68 15 22-Jan-2018 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 122.75 16 27-Mar-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 123.94 Page 3 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Energy and Extractives 100 Renewable Energy Biomass 2 Renewable Energy Geothermal 2 Public Administration - Energy and Extractives 16 Energy Transmission and Distribution 76 Renewable Energy Solar 2 Renewable Energy Wind 2 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Private Sector Development 4 Jobs 4 Job Creation 4 Urban and Rural Development 97 Urban Development 91 Urban Infrastructure and Service Delivery 4 Services and Housing for the Poor 87 Rural Development 6 Rural Infrastructure and service delivery 6 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Johannes C.M. Zutt Carlos Felipe Jaramillo Senior Global Practice Director: Inger Andersen Riccardo Puliti Practice Manager: Subramaniam Vishwanathan Iyer Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee Norah Kipwola, Yadviga Task Team Leader(s): Erik Magnus Fernstrom Viktorivna Semikolenova Page 4 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) ICR Contributing Author: Elisa Portale Page 5 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Country Context 1. Following a period of conflict, and subsequent efforts toward recovery, the Government of Rwanda (GoR) recognized that much higher growth rates are needed to significantly reduce poverty and move toward the objective of middle-income status. By 2001, Rwanda had progressed from the devastating effects of civil war that culminated in a 1994 genocide. During the period immediately following the 1994 genocide, the GoR focused mainly on the post conflict activities of managing a transitional period of rehabilitation and reconstruction. In 1998–1999, Rwanda developed the Vision 2020 that aimed to fundamentally transform Rwanda into a middle-income country and operate as a knowledge-based service hub by the year 2020.1 The primary focus of the Vision was (a) rural development and agricultural transformation, (b) human development, (c) economic infrastructure, (d) governance, (e) private sector development, and (f) institutional capacity building.2 During 1996–2000, real gross domestic product growth averaged more than 10 percent per year as the economy recovered from a low base and stabilized at 6.4 percent between 2001 and 2006.3 In 2000, Rwanda’s poverty rate was 58.9 percent. 2. In 2007, the GoR developed the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy 1 (EDPRS1), for 2008–2012, to provide a medium-term framework for achieving the country’s long-term development aspirations as embodied in Rwanda’s Vision 2020, the seven-year GoR program, and the Millennium Development Goals. The EDPRS was based on three flagship programs: (a) Sustainable Growth for Jobs and Exports, (b) Vision 2020 Umurenge4, and (c) Good Governance.5 The greatest priority of the EDPRS was creating employment and generating exports. Flagship (a) supported policies and investment interventions to, among other things, “improve economic infrastructure especially transport, power, and communications.” Sector Context 3. The institutional structure in the electricity sector had undergone several changes from 1976, when Electricity Water and Gas Authority (ELECTROGAZ) held the monopoly for the production and distribution of electricity and water. In 2008, the institution in charge of electricity distribution was Rwanda Electricity Corporation (RECO).6 In the same year, the country led the formation of one of the first applications of a sector wide approach (SWAp) in the electricity sector. The main donors to the energy sector and the energy sector line ministry (Ministry of Infrastructure [MININFRA]) signed a memorandum 1 Requiring an achievement per capita income of US$1,240 from US$595 in 2011; a poverty rate of 20 percent from 44.9 percent in 2011; and an average life expectance of 66 years from 49 years in 2000. Reference: Rwanda Vision 2020. 2 Rwanda Vision 2020, GoR. 3 Rwanda EDPRS1, GoR; Rwanda Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) FY09– FY12, IDA, International Finance Cooperation (IFC), the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) (August 7, 2008). 4 Integrated rural development program to eradicate extreme poverty and release the productive capacities of the poor 5 Rwanda Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy 1 (EDPRS1), GoR. 6 Rwanda Law No. 44/2008 of September 9, 2008. Page 6 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) of understanding (MoU) for a SWAp in the energy sector. The SWAp was defined as “a common approach and process adopted in partnership between the Ministry of Infrastructure (MININFRA) and its Partners in accordance with the partnership principles and objectives set out in this MOU, to support the energy sector's development and reform programs that are based on Rwanda's Vision 2020 and the EDPRS. It is used to improve the efficiency and effectiveness with which resources are used in the Rwandan energy sector.”7 RECO had capacity gaps in many areas, including capacity to mobilize and implement a scaled- up access program, as well as capacity gaps related to oversight, monitoring and reporting, and social and environmental safeguards. RECO operated under the independent oversight of the Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Authority (RURA), who was in the process of strengthening its capacity to monitor and guide the electricity sector toward growth and increase in direct investment in power generation. 4. During the early 2000s, a drought period exposed the country to electricity shortages, highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and better system planning, and leading the GoR to place electricity supply as high priority for the country.8 Rwanda is a small country and is very densely populated9 (hence relatively easy to electrify). Despite this, electricity access rates, in 2009, were at only 6 percent of Rwanda’s approximately 9 million population (110,000 households), although more than 65 percent of the population lived within 5 km of the existing grid. Installed capacity, mainly hydro, stood at 55 MW. Because of the use of diesel generation to boost capacity, the tariffs were the highest in the region, at US$0.21 per kWh. Electricity was also very unreliable and its quality was poor mainly because of the severely dilapidated national electricity grid. 5. The GoR, the shareholder in RECO, demonstrated ownership and commitment to improving the dire sector situation. Although the electricity sector was riddled with a long period of losses, being subsidized up to operational level by the GoR, RECO was making positive strides in increasing annual electrification speed, improving customer service and billing (including introducing prepayment systems), and starting substation rehabilitation to improve electricity reliability. RECO was also investigating low- cost network reticulation designs in partnership with the Tunisian Society for Electricity and Gas (STEG) and facilitated by the World Bank, through a pilot in Nyagatare district. Higher Level Objectives to which the project Contributed 6. The World Bank CAS (2009–2012), prepared jointly by IDA, IFC, and MIGA, was closely aligned with EDPRS1. It was framed around two strategic themes: (a) promote economic transformation and growth and (b) reduce social vulnerability. The primary objective of the CAS was to help Rwanda make progress in activating new drivers of growth that can be sustained over time, and included, as the second of four strategic outcomes: “improving access to and quality of key economic infrastructure services.”10 7. The CAS (2009–2012) outcomes were aligned to the EDPRS targets for the electricity sector. The EDPRS identified access to electricity, high tariffs, and poor quality of electricity services as key barriers to growth. The EDPRS targets for energy included the following: (a) increase access from 70,000 households 7 MoU entered between the GoR, represented by MININFRA, and the development partners for a SWAp in the energy sector, July 3, 2008. 8 Rwanda Electricity Sector Access Program, March 2009, Castalia Strategic Advisors. 9 In 2009, Rwanda’s population density was approximately 320 people per km2. 10 Rwanda Country Assistance Strategy for the period FY09–FY12, IDA, IFC, MIGA (August 7, 2008). Page 7 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) in 2007 to 200,000 households by 2012; (b) increase total generation capacity from 45 MW in 2007 to 130 MW by 2012; (c) increase electricity coverage of institutions providing social and administrative services from 50 percent to 80 percent (1,000 primary schools, 180 health centers, and 300 sector offices); and (d) train 300 professionals to ensure that the new generating capacity is adequately maintained.11 The CAS outcomes for energy included (a) reduction of unplanned outages (minutes per month) from 2,350 to 1,898 and (b) 120,000 additional households connected to the grid by 2012. 8. Against this background, the Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach Development Project (EASSDP) (P111567) was designed to align to both the EDPRS1 and the CAS (2009– 2012). The EASSDP’s development objective was to improve access to reliable and cost-effective electricity services for households and priority public institutions. The EASSDP would, therefore, contribute to the CAS and the EDPRS1 by increasing access to grid electricity both for household and public institutions and focusing on high tariffs and poor quality of electricity services as key barriers to growth. Rational for the Bank Support 9. The World Bank had, over the years preceding the project, been actively involved in the energy sector and was a prominent contributor to reconstruction efforts in Rwanda. As part of the World Bank engagement, in 2005 the World Bank financed the Urgent Electricity Rehabilitation Project (UERP) (P090194) following the electricity crisis during 2004. The UERP’s objective was to alleviate power shortages and enhance the capabilities of energy sector institutions in Rwanda, consisting of a Power System Reinforcement component. This component included generation and network investments for power system rehabilitation and expansion, including additional thermal generating units and rehabilitation of substations. The project outcomes included (a) supply and installation of a 20 MW thermal power plant; (b) construction, upgrading, and rehabilitation of distribution networks; (c) project implementation support to the Project Implementation Unit (PIU); and (d) institutional strengthening of ELECTROGAZ and other sector institutions (MININFRA and RURA). 10. To balance the slow development progress of the sector so far and the ambitious development targets set in EDPRS1 and CAS 2008–2012, it was crucial that the World Bank continued to support the sector. Rwanda signed the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness of March 2005, which committed the GoR to exercising leadership and coordinating development actions while development partners committed to harmonizing support. The Energy SWAp (eSWAp) is part of a broader movement in Rwanda toward greater coordination between the Government and development partners. The eSWAp was formally launched in July 2008 by an MoU signed by the Ministers of Finance and Energy and senior representatives from the development partners. One of the objectives of the SWAp was to enable electricity access expansion to meet Rwanda’s national targets. Under the MoU, the Government agreed to lead energy sector development by ensuring that sufficient resources are reflected in fiscal budgets and that public agencies at the central and local levels interact constructively. The development partners agreed to focus their support on achieving the EDPRS objectives and communicating openly with the Government on sector investment plans. The energy Sector Working Group (SWG), was set up in 2008, to be chaired by MININFRA and co-chaired by the World Bank, the leading donor to the sector. 11 EDPRS1, GoR. Page 8 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) 11. The World Bank’s continued support to the sector would: (a) assist the SWAp take root in the coordination of the sector development and (b) contribute to supporting the targets set in EDPRS1. The EASSDP project development objective (PDO) was to improve access to reliable and cost-effective electricity services for households and priority public institutions. The project would be delivered through the Rwanda Electricity Sector Access Program Investment Prospectus (IP-2009),12 delivering electricity access to both urban and rural households, thus contributing to the World Bank’s twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 12. Figure 2 shows the results chain chart, which summarizes the route from the activities to be undertaken by the project to long-term outcomes. The Electricity Access Rollout Program (EARP) was set up under the eSWAp concept as the sole unit to coordinate and roll out the GoR’s electricity access program. All donor funds related to electricity access expansion, including the EASSDP, were channeled to the EARP. 13. The objective of the EASSDP was to improve access to reliable and cost-effective electricity services for households and priority public institutions. The project was designed with three components: (a) National Grid Rollout, (b) Green Connections, and (c) Technical Assistance, Capacity Strengthening, and Implementation Support. The results chain shows (a) the three components as the activities to be undertaken by the project and (b) the main outputs and intermediary outputs as the targets to be realized through the activities. 14. The outcomes relate to the objectives of the EASSDP and are aligned to both the GoR’s core indicators in the EDPRS1 and the World Bank CAS. The outcome indicators relate to both the EARP and EASSDP. The project Results Framework measured results at both the project level (EASSDP and other donor-funded projects) and program level (EARP). Figure 1 depicts the relationship between the program (EARP), EASSDP, and other donor-funded projects. Multiple donors, including the African Development Bank (AfDB), Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), Belgian Technical Corporation (BTC), European Union (EU), the Netherlands, Japan, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Fund, Saudi Fund, and the World Bank, contributed, and continue to contribute, to the program. The EASSDP was the largest contributor to the GoR EARP. The EARP, operating under the SWAp, was closely monitored by the Presidency, through the annual leadership retreats. In addition, the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN) conducts annual joint sector reviews (JSRs) during which sector performance is monitored and reported to the SWG. 15. The Project Appraisal Document (PAD) states “although not explicitly monitored as part of the government’s EDPRS1, the project will support efforts to increase productive use of electricity in the targeted areas to stimulate economic growth and job creation” as part of the long-term outcomes.” 12 Castalia Strategic Advisors, March 2009. Page 9 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) Figure 1. Relationship between the Program (EARP), EASSDP, and Other Donor-funded Projects Netherlands OFID AFD Saudi Fund BADEA AfDB Belgium ($50m) ($22m) ($5m) ($12m) ($11m) ($42m) (€43m) Electricity Access Rollout Program (Government Program; 2009—) Results measured by • Program-level indicators on access for households • Program-level indicators on access for public institutions • Program-level indicators for cost-effectiveness Focus of this ICR Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector- Rwanda Electricity Sector Wide Approach Development Project Strengthening Project (IDA $130m; 2009/2013-2018) (IDA $45m for EARP; 2015—) • Project-level and program-level indicators for • Project-level indicator for access to households; households and public institutions; • Program-level indicators for public institutions, • Program-level indicators for cost-effectiveness cost-effectiveness and reliability and reliability World Bank Support Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 16. The objective of the project was to improve access to reliable and cost-effective electricity services for households and priority public institutions. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 17. The key expected outcomes to be used to assess the project are (a) Improve access of electricity services for households; (b) Improve access of electricity services for priority public institutions; (c) Improve reliability of electricity services; and (d) Improve cost-effectiveness of electricity services. 18. The outcome indicators to be used to assess the project outcomes, revised after Additional Financing (AF) are (a) Households connected to electricity (target number - 768,000 for EARP and 148,000 for EASSDP); (b) Public institutions with access to electricity (targets - 100% of health centers, 80% of schools, and 100% of sector administration offices); Page 10 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) (c) Monthly interruptions per km of MV line (target - rolling average less by 35% of baseline); and (d) Average cost per connection (target - more by 9% of baseline). Figure 2. Results Chain Intermediate Long-terms Activities Outputs PDOs/Outcomes Outcomes Outcomes Component A: National National Grid Rollout Grid Rollout 1. Number of households • 7. km of MV distribution • Grid Intensification with electricity services network constructed • MV extensions and LV • 8. Number of transformers Improve access to to reticulation rehabilitated electricity services for • Grid strengthening, • 9. Existence of customer households improved operational 2.Number of public complaint and resolution capacity, and service institutions with system Positive network expansion electricity services socioeconomic Improve access to outcomes (economic Green Connections electricity services for growth, job creation, Component B: Green 3. Rolling average of • 10. Percentage of new priority public reduced CO2 monthly interruptions customers using CFLs Connections institutions emissions) • 11. Number of Solar water • Efficient lighting Heaters supplied • Energy efficiency- use of • 12. Estimated percentage of solar water heaters 4. Average cost per energy reduction • Solutions adapted for low- connection Improve reliabiliby of income households. Improved Aid electricity services • Productive uses Technical Assistance effectiveness • 13. Joint Annual Sector 5. Number of project Performance report Component C: Technical Assistance, Capacity Bbeneficiaries approved by SWG • 14. Spatial grid rollout Improve cost Strengthening, and Implementation Support investment plan updated by effectiveness of EWSA and approved by SWG electricity services • Improved Sector planning 6. Number of project • 15. Quarterly Program and financing framework in beneficiaries that are monitoring progress reports place female approved by SWG Note: Orange boxes refer to components and indicators that were cancelled during the project implementation. Project Components 19. The final estimated and actual component costs are presented in table 1. Table 1. Estimated Versus Actual Component Costs Component Estimated Cost (US$, millions) Actual Cost (US$, millions) A: National Grid Rollout IDA 103.17 91.7 OPEC FUND 10 B: Green Connections 10.2 3.6 C: Technical Assistance, Capacity Building, and 16.8 25.9 Implementation Support Page 11 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) 20. The project was designed with three components, as detailed: (a) National Grid Rollout (IDA US$58 million,13 OPEC Fund US$10 million), including subcomponents as follows: (i) Grid intensification in urban and peri-urban areas. (ii) Electrification of new districts and sectors, including MV extensions and LV reticulations. (iii) Backbone MV/HV grid strengthening, improved operational capacity, and service network expansion. (b) Green Connections (IDA US$5.2 million), including the following subcomponents: (i) Efficient lighting. (ii) Energy efficiency. (iii) Solutions adapted for low-income households. (iv) Productive users. (c) Technical Assistance, Capacity Strengthening, and Implementation Support (IDA US$6.8 million). 21. The AF in 2013 provided extra IDA credit as follows: (a) US$45 million toward Component A, (b) US$5 million toward Component B, and (c) US$10 million toward Component C. 22. During project restructuring in May 2016, Component B, Green Connections, was dropped, and the undisbursed funds were reallocated to Component A. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) 23. The PDO remained unchanged throughout the project lifetime. Revised PDO indicators and Outcome Targets 24. During project implementation, the World Bank task team continuously monitored project progress against set targets. The World Bank was flexible in supporting restructuring of the project when necessary, considering the lessons learned and the evolving sector strategy. The project was restructured four times during its lifetime. 25. Restructuring No. 1, December 2012 (AF). During 2012, a midterm review (MTR) was carried out for the EARP, the program to which the project contributed. The MTR report highlighted that there had 13 The PAD lists US$51 million for Component A. However, the restructuring paper corrects the figure to US$58 million. Page 12 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) been impressive progress in access to grid electricity14 and that 87 percent of the EARP program targets had been achieved. This success led to the GoR revising the access targets upward.15 This would require additional investment of approximately US$1.2 billion for more than 1.2 million new connections. The EASSDP was also progressing well, with 54 percent of the credit disbursed and 100 percent committed. 26. To continue supporting the Government targets, additional finance to the project was processed and approved in December 2012. This would help scale up the ongoing activities under the project related to expansion of access and productive use of electricity and scaling up of green connections associated with energy efficient solutions. The following changes to the project were introduced: (a) Increased project value from US$70 million to US$130 million (adding IDA credit as follows: (a) US$45 million toward Component A, (b) US$5 million toward Component B, and (c) US$10 million toward component C). (b) Change in project closing date from January 31, 2014, to June 30, 2016. (c) The revised targets were as follows: (i) Households connected to electricity (by EASSDP) increased from 100,000 to 148,000. (ii) Health centers connected to electricity increased from 90 percent to 100 percent. (iii) Schools connected to electricity increased from 50 percent to 80 percent. (iv) Sector administrative offices connected to electricity increased from 90 percent to 100 percent. (v) Rolling average of monthly interruptions per km of MV line from –25 percent to –35 percent .16 (vi) Average costs per connection from –20 percent to 9 percent.17 The changes did not have any implication on the original theory of change. 27. Restructuring No. 2, May 2016. The World Bank provided advisory services to the GoR, outlining the three major problems faced by the electricity sector as: (a) sector planning and development,18 (b) 14 Connections had risen from 187,000 in 2010 to 300,000 by April 2011 and indications were that the target of reaching 350,000 connections by December 2012 would be exceeded. 15 Targets were revised during the Government retreat in 2012, from 50 percent by 2017 to 70 percent by 2017. 16 The rolling average of monthly interruptions per km of MV line was measured by dividing the number of interruptions over an average of three months by the number of kilometers of new lines constructed. The target was to reduce the number of interruptions by 35 percent from reduction of 25 percent. 17 The target for cost of connection increased because it was anticipated that the AF would finance long backbone structures to rural areas, as opposed to the original finance that focused on more ‘fill-in’ and urban densification connections. 18 No systematic planning of generation and transmission investments, including expansion through unsolicited proposals and unsustainable mix of primary resources. Page 13 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) efficiency of utility operations,19 and (c) financial sustainability of the sector.20 The World Bank proposed institutional restructuring to address the three broad problem areas, including (a) creation of three state- owned companies under the Companies Law (a national electric utility, a water and sanitation company, and an energy development company); (b) immediate preparation of a least-cost power development plan for the electricity sector; (c) definition and effective implementation of action plans for the new companies for an initial two-year period; and (d) assessment of the existing pricing systems for electricity and water and sanitation services and proposed improvements and approaches for implementation. Based on the World Bank’s advice, the electricity sector restructuring was conducted in 2014, with one of the results being the splitting up of the Electricity, Water, and Sanitation Authority (EWSA) into the Rwanda Energy Group (REG), Electricity Utility Company Limited (EUCL), and Electricity Development Company Limited (EDCL). 28. In 2015, a decision was also made to not pursue Component B of the project. This decision was made owing to three main reasons: (a) the utility had a parallel project distributing compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) for all new customer connections and, therefore, the EASSDP funds were not being used effectively for the same activity; (b) the project had procured sufficient numbers of ready boards that were in stock and did not require more during the lifetime of the project; and (c) procurement of the solar water heater (SWH) component of the project was moving very slowly and a similar design for supply of photovoltaics (PV), being funded by the BTC/EU, was not performing well. 29. After these two changes the project was restructured, in May 2016, and the following changes made: (a) The implementation agency was changed from the EWSA to EDCL and the legal documents were updated to reflect the new PIU. (b) Component B was dropped from the project. (c) Funds were reallocated between the disbursement categories as follows: (i) Component A: National Grid Rollout - US$103.17 million. (ii) Component B: Green Connections - US$2.1 million. 21 (iii) Component C: Technical Assistance, Capacity Strengthening and Implementation Support - US$16.8 million. (d) The project indicators were changed as follows: 19 The poor quality of the existing services, high losses, lack of autonomy, cross-subsidization within the utilities (electricity subsidizing water) and between the functions (utilities subsidizing development), wide mission translating into lack of managerial focus, insufficient funding, and insufficient institutional capacity. 20 High subsidies to the electricity and water sector. 21 There is a discrepancy between the PIU figure for disbursements for Component B (US$3.6 million) and what the World Bank task team reported at restructuring (US$2.1 million). The PIU figure relates to the contract for ready boards and related installation materials. Page 14 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) (i) Indicators related to SWHs installed and estimated energy reduction from energy- efficient investments were deleted since activities under Component B were dropped. (ii) The indicator ‘Households connected to electricity’ was renamed ‘Households connected to electricity under the Government EARP program’, to reflect the relationship between the indicator and the Government electrification program. (iii) The core indicator ‘People provided with access to electricity by household connections’ was added to the Results Framework. (e) The project closing date was extended to June 30, 2017. (f) The implementation schedule was updated to reflect the proposed new closing date. 30. The changes introduced by the restructuring further narrowed the project’s focus to increased grid connections for households and priority public institutions, still aligned to the GoR’s increased targets for grid connectivity. The changes also introduced an increased budget for the electricity sector to support capacity challenges that would be faced owing to the institutional changes. There was no implication on the theory of change introduced by this restructuring. 31. Restructuring No. 3, May 2017 (Closing date extension). During May 2017, the project was restructured to extend the closing date to November 30, 2017. This was motivated by the availability of funds released from savings arising from competitive procurement practices and two nonperforming engineering, procurement, and construction contracts (EPCs) that were cancelled by the PIU. The extension of time would enable the GoR use all the project funds. There was no implication on the theory of change introduced by this restructuring. 32. Restructuring No. 4, November 2017 (Closing date extension). During November 2017, the project was restructured to extend the closing date to March 30, 2018, to enable the project use 100 percent of the project funds. At that time, cumulative disbursements stood at 97.53 percent of the total US$130 million equivalent credit, and all contracts not yet disbursed then were on schedule to be delivered on time, except one major contract, ‘Purchase of Trucks’, which the PIU intended to purchase from the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS). Owing to delays in the approval process, the contract signing was delayed, and on September 26, 2017, while the PIU was ready to sign the contract, UNOPS informed them that they could not commit to delivering the contract for the purchase of trucks by the project closing date of November 30, 2017. To enable the PIU to sign the contract and ensure the delivery of trucks and disbursement before project closing date, the GoR requested a four-month extension to the project closing date. There was no implication on the theory of change introduced by this restructuring. Page 15 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Rating: High 33. The objective of the project, to improve access to reliable and cost-effective electricity services for households and priority public institutions, was relevant at the time of project appraisal and continued to be relevant at project closure. The PDO remains relevant to the World Banks priorities for Rwanda. This is evident from the CAS (2014–2018) that was approved by the World Bank Board in 2014. The CAS emphasized that (a) energy was still an important driving factor for the private sector-led growth that the EDPRS2 outlined;22 (b) rural electrification provides benefits in consumption and human capital accumulation; and (c) major constraints to investment in Rwanda include high energy costs, insufficient generation capacity, and limited transmission networks. The CAS also noted that increased access to electricity is key to the countries’ poverty reduction, economic growth, and broad-based welfare gains. The energy sector challenges identified by the CAS were (a) insufficient generation, (b) high cost of energy, and (c) low reliability of electricity supply. Following this, one of its objectives and outcome indicators was chosen to be ‘National access to electricity increased from 18 percent in 2013 to 35 percent in 2018’. 34. Additionally, the performance and learning review of the CAS, that was approved in February 2017, recommended, among other recommendations, (a) a two-year extension of the CAS to end of FY20, (b) doing more to address structural reforms in the energy sector, and (c) aligning the program to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Goal 7 that concerns access to sustainable energy for all. The indicator for national access to electricity was increased to 50 percent in 2018, in line with the recommendation to increase the tenor of the CAS. 35. The PDO still addresses all areas of the current CAS, including increased energy access and sustainability of energy (cost-effectiveness and reliability of energy). The PDO still remains fully relevant to the current CAS. The rating of the relevance of the PDO is therefore assessed as ‘High’. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) 36. The overall efficacy of the PDO is rated Substantial. 37. The project achieved and, in some cases, exceeded its assigned targets. Table 2 shows a summary of the achievement for each aspect of the PDO. 22 The first theme of the EDPRS2 is accelerating economic growth that is private sector driven and job creating. Page 16 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) Table 2. Summary of Achievement of Each Aspect of the PDO Indicators Objective Baseline Target a Resultb Achievement Improve access to electricity EASSDP: 0 148,000 275,714 Tar86% over services to households EARP: 110,000 768,000 810,923 5.6% over (number) Improve access to priority Health centers: 38.4% 100% 92.1% 7.9% under public institutions (percentage) Schools: 21% 80% 77.2% 2.8% under Administration buildings: 38.7% 100% 94.5% 5.5% under Improve reliability of electricity Rolling average of monthly –35% 61% 96% under services interruptions: 0.06338 Improve cost effectiveness of Average cost/connection of a 1,090 411.12 62.3% over electricity services (US$) household: 1,000 Note: a. This column relates to the revised targets after the AF. Note: b. EASSDP was restructuring during 2012 to provide additional finance to the project. During MTR in July 2012, the EASSDP progress was assessed with a view to recommend additional finance to the project. The MTR AM noted that the EASSDP progress was at the time on track of achieving its objective; with the performance indicators related to access having been attained, and actions related to reliability and cost effectiveness were being implemented23. The AM further noted that EASSDP’s development objective remained relevant. Objective 1: Improve access of electricity services to households Rating: High 38. The outcome ‘access to electricity services to households’ was designed to be measured by the indicator ‘households connected to electricity (number)’. Two sub-indicators were monitored under this indicator: (a) households connected by the program (EARP) and (b) households connected under the project (EASSDP). 39. The GoR’s electricity access program is one of the most successful electrification cases worldwide. Rwanda’s annualized increase in access (percentage points) between 2010 and 2016 was the highest among the world’s 20 least electrified countries and much higher than the world average (3.28, compared to the world average of 0.6424—see figure 3). Between 2010 and 2016, Rwanda increased access to electricity from 6 percent to 29.4 percent, through the GoR’s EARP coordination unit. At project closure, the grid electrification rate in Rwanda was 31 percent. The total EARP contribution to percentage electrification rate during the project lifetime was 28.5 percent, of which 10 percent was through the EASSDP funds.25 23 EASSDP had achieved the following: 194,940 household connections against a target of 100,000 (while the EARP had achieved 350,000 household connections). EARP had achieved the following: 49.8 percent countrywide health centre connections against a 46.7 percent target; 30.3 percent countrywide school connections against a target of 50 percent; 53.3 percent countrywide sector administrative office connections against a target of 52 percent; cost reduction of 16% on average cost of connection, against a target of 20% reduction. The rolling average monthly interruptions per km of line increased (instead of reducing) owing mainly to increased shorttime interruptions during line sectionalizing to allow for the access works 24 Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2018; a joint report by International Energy Agency, International Renewable Energy Agency, United Nations Statistics Division, the World Bank Group, and World Health Organization. 25 The electrification rate is calculated using the 2018 average household size of 4.4 people and the 2018 population of 12.5 million. Page 17 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) 40. A major contributor to these excellent connection results by the project was the GoR’s drive for results, coupled with the institutional arrangements to drive the access program . A SWAp concept was set up in 2008 by the GoR for all sectors, including the energy sector. One of the main objectives of the eSWAp was to execute the GoR’s electrification program using an inclusive strategy, including the GoR, donors, private sector, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). The GoR took leadership of the eSWAP through MININFRA and a fully staffed secretariat. The EARP was set up to be the sole coordination unit focusing on grid electricity access rollout. The EARP would coordinate, manage, and implement the Government’s access expansion program and all donor funds directed to the access expansion program would be channeled for implementation through the EARP. Figure 3. Annualized Increase in Access Compared to the World’s Fastest Growing Programs Source: World Bank. 41. One of the objectives of the SWAp was to mobilize financing toward the electrification plan. Multiple donors, including the AfDB, BADEA, BTC, EU, the Netherlands, Japan, OPEC Fund, Saudi Fund, and the World Bank, contributed, and continue to contribute, to the program. The EASSDP was the largest contributor to the GoR EARP. The EARP, operating under the SWAp, was closely monitored by the Presidency, through the annual leadership retreats. In addition, the MINECOFIN conducts annual JSRs during which the sector performance is monitored and reported to the SWG. 42. Another important contributor to the results was the implementation approach of the EARP, guided by the Rwanda Electricity Sector Access Program (March 2009) - Investment prospectus (Castalia Strategic Advisors), (IP-2009), followed by the SOFRECO Combined Design Report (2012).26 The IP-2009 used geospatial prioritization for grid compatible areas, prioritizing new grid connections depending on demographic and cost factors, including proximity to the existing grid, interhousehold distances, social infrastructure, access to road networks, and the ability of consumers in each planning cell to afford electricity. The objective of this prioritization was to ensure that the program maximizes the benefits of electrification, while minimizing program costs. The prioritization took advantage of Rwanda being a small country with high population density, making potential rollout faster than larger low densely populated 262012 Electricity Network Planning and Design Consulting Services “Electricity Access Scale-Up Rollout Program” by SOFRECO (Contract No. 11.07.029/3324/11/EARP-CTX-DIR/YM/j.p.s). Page 18 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) countries. At the onset of the EARP in 2009, while following the IP-2009, the PIU started by focusing on densification in larger cities such as Kigali, Huye, Gitarama, and Ruhengeri where the unserved potential was believed to be the highest. The EASSDP financed the extension of the existing national grid to previously unserved areas identified in the IP-2009. Once the MV backbone was built, the PIU focused on connecting all users within a 5 km distance of the backbone,27 hence capturing many households and productive users. This led to the project quickly achieving high connection numbers in a short time. 43. RECO employed a mix of EPC contractors and local contractors to speed up the connection rate. While EPCs built the long MV lines, the local contractors installed the LV line drops and house connections, enabling faster rollout of the program. The project also financed bulk supply of line construction materials and used local contractors to carry out the installation. 44. During 2017, a new connection policy was introduced, which contributed to faster connection of households. The electricity connection fee for a household in Rwanda is RWF 56,000. Before 2017, the connection policy involved an advance payment of at least RWF 15,000 toward connection fees. The balance (RWF 41,000) would be paid in monthly installments of RWF 3,500 over a 12-month period. Failure to pay the monthly installment would result in failure to buy units of electricity through the pre- payment system and attraction of a fine. Over time, it was realized that this connection policy was a constraint to connections and consumption by poorer households, and the policy was revised. The new connection policy, introduced during 2017, provided an alternative, allowing connections without an advance payment and deduction of the connection fee from payments for purchase of units of electricity. Until the full amount of the connection fee was recovered, 50 percent of the amount paid toward purchase of units of electricity was deducted toward the connection fee cost. The EARP was able to accelerate the increase in new customers connected after revision of the connection policy. 45. With the support of the World Bank’s implementation supervision teams, the EARP managed to rapidly scale up annual connections by the EARP, resulting in exceeding the EDPRS1 targets,28 and increasing the targets in EDPRS2.29 Close supervision ensured early identification of problems, so that resolution could be fast tracked. Support was crucial in the fields of engineering, procurement, finance, and social and environmental safeguards compliance, among others. The project restructuring considered identified bottlenecks and evolving policy while continuing to support delivery of the PDOs. Objective 2: Improve access of electricity services to priority public institutions Rating: Substantial 46. The objective ‘access of electricity to priority public institutions’ was designed to be measured by the indicator ‘Public institutions with access to electricity (percentage) (disaggregated by type)’. This indicator was measured at the program (EARP) level, as overall country connection rates. At the time of project appraisal in 2009, electricity grid connection rates of public institutions in Rwanda were as follows: (a) 38.4 percent of health centers, (b) 21 percent of schools, and (c) 38.7 percent of sector administrative buildings. The targets for connection of priority public institutions were updated during the EASSDP AF (2012) to 100 percent of health centers, 80 percent of schools, and 100 percent of sector administrative 27 Rwanda Electricity Sector Access Program (March 2009) - Investment prospectus (Castalia Strategic Advisors). 28 The EDPRS1 target was to increase electricity connections to households from 70,000 in 2006 to 270,000 in 2012. Actual realization from the EARP was 308,326 household connections in 2012. 29 The targets for household connections to grid electricity were increased in the EDPRS2 to 70 percent in 2018. Page 19 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) buildings. By project closure in March 2018, a small shortfall in meeting targets was observed (see Table 2). 47. The project used a program-level results indicator to measure progress on public institutions because contributions of the project funds were inseparably linked to contributions of other program funds in facilitating the connection of schools, health centers, and public administration buildings. Connecting all public institutions in Rwanda required extending the grid to essentially cover all major settlements in the country. That means, unlike in the case of households, the cost of connecting (line drop and meter) the institutions were small in comparison to the cost of extending the distribution grid (where one segment of the grid has limited contribution to covering the whole country that can be isolated from the contributions of the other segments funded from other sources). Connections enabled by the project funds could, therefore, not be separated meaningfully from connections enabled by the program overall. 48. The small shortfall realized in meeting the targets is largely attributed to a shortfall in funding for the GoR electrification program. The IP-2009 and the SOFRECO report (2012), implemented by the EARP, dictated the direction of the MV backbone. While the backbone was expanded, all public infrastructure (health centers, schools, and public administration buildings) within a 5 km distance from the line were connected to the grid. During the project implementation, all priority public institutions within 5 km of the existing and constructed backbone were connected to the grid; however, because the backbone did not cover the whole country, there was a lag in meeting the target grid connection rates for the institutions. 49. It is worth noting that by project closure, 100 percent of the administrative offices in the country were connected to electricity by a combination of grid and off-grid methods. The IP-2009 indicated that a high-level plan would be prepared for extending electricity to locations where off-grid electrification is identified as least-cost and that the major component of this plan was to provide solar PV units for schools, health centers, and administrative offices to meet the Government’s targets for each of these important social institutions. Component A of the EASSDP PAD, however, referred to only the National Grid Rollout, and therefore, the project monitored only grid connections. Objective 3: Improve reliability of electricity services Rating: Negligible 50. The objective ‘improve the reliability of electricity services’ was designed to be measured by the indicator ‘Monthly interruptions per km of MV line (rolling average)’. This indicator was measured at the program (EARP) level, relating to the country grid expansion program. The baseline at the time of project appraisal was 0.06338.30 The target set was a reduction of 35 percent (0.0412). At the time of project closure, the rolling average of monthly interruptions per km of MV line was 0.102,31 a 61 percent increase in monthly interruptions per km of MV line (96 percent of the target). 51. The aim of this reliability indicator was to monitor and mitigate any negative effects that the grid extensions and connections being carried out by the EARP could have on system reliability; however, the project did not have any direct influence over upstream investment decisions. The 30 Based on 270 interruptions per month and 4,260 km of MV line. 31 Based on 730 interruptions per month and 7,135 km of MV line. Page 20 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) objective aimed to ensure that while the grid was being extended, the new connections would not lead to the deterioration of the existing network and hence deterioration of the quality of service. It would have been necessary to ensure coordinated upstream and downstream investments, while monitoring this indicator. Since the project had no direct influence on any upstream investment decisions, this indicator measured values that were out of the project’s control. In fact, the direct effect of the EARP implementation works on network reliability cannot be assigned using this indicator, and the failure of the project to meet the objective cannot be entirely attributed to factors within the project. 52. This objective also did not account for two major factors of the Rwanda electricity network. First, it was impossible at the time to collect specific data to qualify whether the project activities directly contributed to deterioration of the supply reliability, due to the status of network monitoring tools in the utility at the time. Second, because the indicator monitored outages on the whole network, it could not insulate the effects of the EARP implementation works from other activities being carried out on the electricity network. For example, one of the targets in the EDPRS1 was to increase electricity generation from 45 MW in 2006 to 120 MW in 2012 (actual achievement was 110 MW, while at project closure, electricity generation was 210 MW). The addition of 65 MW of electricity to the grid with aging transmission infrastructure could potentially introduce negative impacts on electricity reliability. 53. Additionally, recent reliability data show that reliability is not one of the major challenges of the electricity sector in Rwanda and that network reliability has in fact been improving. According to the recent multi-tier framework (MTF) energy survey results,32 68.4 percent of the grid-connected households in Rwanda lie within Tier 4. Data from the survey indicate that only 5.7 percent of the population in Rwanda are constrained to relatively lower tiers (Tier 3 and 4) due to low reliability. Limited evening availability (less than 4 hours) and quality (such as inadequate voltage) keep most households in Tier 3. Reliability issues (more than 14 disruptions a week or more than 2 hours disruption a week) and limited daily availability (16–23 hours a day) keep most households in Tier 4. Tier 4 is already a relatively high tier of access. Addressing these challenges would move most electrified households to the highest tier (Tier 5). The system average interruption duration index (SAIDI)/system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) results shown from the 2017/2018 utility reliability data confirm that reliability was not deteriorating, as indicated by the EASSDP indicator. 54. Considering that the objective did not meet the criteria of a good objective, the World Bank supervision team missed the opportunity during project restructuring to redefine this objective to relate it more directly to the project or completely drop it. Because the project activities did not include any activity or output that could improve the reliability of the network, the most logical action during project restructuring would have been to drop the objective and its related indicators, or to investigate ways to make the objective more relevant to the project. Objective 4: Improve cost-effectiveness of electricity services Rating: High 55. The objective ‘improve cost effectiveness of electricity services’ was designed to be measured by the indicator ‘Average cost per connection (Connection Cost Index [CCI])’. The indicator was a program- 32 World Bank. 2018. Rwanda - Beyond Connections: Energy Access Diagnostic Report Based on the Multi-Tier Framework. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://energydata.info/dataset/rwanda---multi-tier-framework--mtf--survey--2018.- Page 21 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) level (EARP) indicator. The baseline at the time of project, which was derived from the IP-2009, was US$1,000. During the implementation of the project between 2009 and 2012, unit connection costs ranged from US$300 (for fill-in connections) to US$840. At the time of the AF in 2012, the target was set at +9 percent from the original target (US$1,090). This increase was intended to capture the costs of building long MV lines to serve as grid backbone. 56. At project closing, the average cost per connection was very low compared to the target cost (US$ 411.12: less by 62.28 percent of the target). Through competitive procurement processes, the EPC cost of delivering projects reduced. The project also reduced costs of MV backbone structure by using concrete poles and wooden poles instead of steel lattice poles and investigated using single wire earth return (SWER) technology on some of the MV lines. This, combined with densification as project life grew, helped tremendously reduce the cost per connection. Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 57. Although the project was restructured several times, including application of AF, neither the PDOs nor key associated outcomes changed. It is, therefore, not necessary to perform a split rating of the project efficacy. 58. The overall efficacy of the PDO is rated Substantial. 59. Based on the analysis of results of each indicator, the Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) concludes that the overall efficacy rating is Substantial. The PDO and PDO indicators remained valid from project appraisal to project closure and remain valid going forward. Except for the indicator related to the objective to ‘improve the reliability of electricity services’, the indicators were directly attributable to the project activities. 60. The consistent reduction of the cost per connection, ending with a substantial reduction, allowed the project to increase results even further without increasing the project cost. In addition, the AF allowed for increase of targets without changing the intended outcomes of the project. The project contributed to Rwanda’s very successful electricity access agenda. 61. The failure of the project to meet the objective related to improving the reliability of electricity services is related to the fact that the assigned indicator was not an appropriate one. The poor result reported cannot be attributable to the project activities and does not in any way undermine the impact of the project when assessed against the PDO. C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating Rating: Substantial 62. The project investments were estimated to be economically viable with an estimated economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of 55 percent and an economic net present value (ENPV) of US$112 million Page 22 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) over the economic lifetime of the project.33 Project benefits accrued from (a) increased electrification, (b) savings in electricity connection costs, and (c) savings from green connections (increased adoption of CFLs and SWHs). The project results exceeded their targets set at appraisal on the number of connections and reduction in the cost of connection but fell short of targeted institutional connections and increased reliability. 63. The economic analysis prepared at appraisal estimated an ENPV of US$273 million (at a discount rate of 12 percent) and an EIRR of 40 percent. The analysis assessed the benefits of the grid portion of the National Electricity Access Program (NEAP), where the proposed financing was expected to fund about 100,000 grid connections during a five-year period (2009–2013).34 In 2013, during project implementation, the World Bank approved US$60 million of AF for the project. The AF was provided to support connecting an additional 48,000 households to the electricity grid—during 2013–2016—as part of the second phase of the EARP, and the EIRR estimated at this stage was 59 percent and the ENPV at a discount rate of 10 percent was US$75 million. 64. For the ICR stage economic analysis, the benefits primarily accrued from the increased electrification, especially among households. The project exceeded the household connection indicator by 85 percent: 273,637 connections were completed by project closure, compared to 148,000 planned during project preparation. Greater-than-expected connections allowed greater economies of scale in connection contracts and in the manufacturing and procurement of electricity poles. Further, as greater numbers of connections allow the fixed costs of upstream infrastructure to be spread out over a greater number of customers, this implied a decline in the connection cost per household connected. The baseline connection cost of the project was estimated at US$1,000 and was expected to reach US$1,090 by project closure. Instead, the costs per connection decreased every year during implementation and reached the lowest point of US$411 by project closure, around 60 percent lower than the baseline cost. In addition, the reallocation of funds from Component B (Green Connections), to Component A (National Grid Rollout) further augmented the successful performance against the grid connections targets. 65. A sensitivity analysis also tested the robustness of the results to changes in the values of the two main assumptions: (a) the consumer surplus of households and (b) the consumer surplus of public institutions (schools, health centers, and sector administration offices). The EIRR reduces considerably under both cases (the EIRR decreases to 33 percent in the first case and to 47 percent in the second case), but the results remain positive under both scenarios. 66. Despite the impressive results in terms of households’ connections and the reduction in average connection costs, the project did not reach the targets of the other two key outcome indicators: improving access of electricity services for priority public institutions and improving reliability of electricity services. In the case of public institutions, the shortfall was relatively small, but the shortfall was significant in the case of reliability of service.35 In addition, the project closing date was extended four times, implying an 33 Assuming the same discount rate as during the AF, 10 percent, and an economic lifetime of 20 years. 34 The Excel model used to calculate the economic analysis during appraisal was not available for this ICR. Thus, the economic analysis of this ICR was prepared using various sources, including the economic analysis prepared for the AF. 35 The project targeted the connection of 100 percent of health centers in the country, 80 percent of schools, and 100 percent of sector administration offices. By project closure, 92.1 percent of health centers, 77.2 percent of schools, and 94.5 percent of sector administration buildings had been connected. The target for monthly interruptions per km of MV line was 35 percent lower rolling average than baseline. Instead, the rolling average was 61 percent higher than the baseline by project closure. Page 23 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) overall extension of over four years (from January 31, 2014, to March 30, 2018). Due to these reasons, the project efficiency is rated Substantial. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING Overall outcome rating: Satisfactory 67. The overall outcome rating of the project is Satisfactory. The PDO is relevant to Rwanda today and going forward, and the PDO rating is High. The overall efficacy of the project is rated Substantial and the overall efficiency Substantial. The project supported the GoR in meeting and exceeding the EDPRS1 targets and contributed both to capacity building within the sector, and institutional reform of the sector. E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) 68. The EASSDP was part of the IDA16 impact evaluation exercise, where the baseline (2014) and follow-up (2016) exercises were completed. The project used this unique opportunity to build in an impact evaluation in a well-considered manner and created capacity within the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) unit of the EARP to manage the follow-up survey on their own. Many positive impacts of electrification through the EARP were articulated during the impact evaluation survey. The results showed positive socioeconomic outcomes in electrified households, including a decrease in total energy expenditure, increased income, increased asset values, increased time spent in school, and improvement in health outcomes. Table 3 presents an extract from the impact evaluation report, showing the complete list of all outcomes and impacts between 2014 and 2016. Page 24 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) Table 3. Summary of Significant Impact on Household Outcome Variables Due to Access to Electricity (grid) a Average Significance of Difference in (No. of Observations) Means Outcome Variables Baseline Follow Up Control Treatment Control Treated DiD p-value** t-test Household monthly cost for biomass collection and own 6.07 3,856 6,735 5,590 –1,400 0.061* –1.88 production (RWF) (547) (529) (402) (159) Monthly cost of non-biomass energy consumption (RWF) 900 835 4,505 1,147 –3,300 0.008*** –2.65 (1,000) (1,000) (827) (413) Child’s school has electricity (%) 9.4 20.4 40.1 71.9 19.1 0.000*** 9.25 (1,403) (1,444) (1,263) (1,276) The child contributes to household chores and income- 71.1 72.1 39.1 35.8 –0.43 0.070* –1.81 generating activities (%) (1,876) (2,006) (1,290) (1,320) Amount of money paid for rent every month (RWF) 7,726 7,343 5,156 11,417 6,644 0.007*** 2.74 (34) (42) (16) (12) Current market value of the house and the land on which it 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,900,000 3,200,000 1,100,000 0.000*** 6.07 sits (RWF) (955) (950) (780) (389) Number of rooms in the main dwelling 4 4 4 5 0.5 0.000*** 5.1 (1,000) (1,000) (827) (413) Number of hours per day worked in last 30 days in all 6.939 6.88 8.764 10.079 1.375 0.000*** 5.76 occupations (1,793) (1,886) (814) (403) Total household assets (RWF) 2,200,000 2,300,000 2,200,000 3,700,000 1,400,000 0.000*** 4.4 (999) (1000) (827) (413) Value of total land owned by household, excluding 750,000 650,000 1,400,000 1,900,000 640,000 0.001*** 3.38 homestead land (RWF) (1,000) (1,000) (827) (413) Value of household goods owned by the household (RWF) 52,000 50,000 68,000 140,000 70,000 0.000*** 4.55 (1,000) (1,000) (827) (413) Total household income (RWF) 360,000 390,000 360,000 650,000 270,000 0.000*** 4.37 (965) (968) (812) (411) Food expenditure in the last 7 days (RWF) 9,173 9,822 9,506 12,000 1,941 0.012** 2.52 (998) (991) (825) (412) Total non-food expenditure in the last 12 months 97,000 130,000 180,000 320,000 110,000 0.058* 1.9 (1,000) (1,000) (827) (413) Time use for home-based non-farm self-employment by the 0.233 0.272 0.259 0.489 0.192 0.059* 1.89 head of household (hours) (978) (975) (827) (413) Time use for fuel collection by the spouse of head of 0.341 0.341 0.341 0.336 –0.215 0.000*** –3.87 Page 25 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) Average Significance of Difference in (No. of Observations) Means Outcome Variables Baseline Follow Up Control Treatment Control Treated DiD p-value** t-test household (hours) (960) (942) (383) (219) Time use for tutoring children by the head of household 0.081 0.092 0.062 0.109 0.036 0.098* 1.66 (hours) (980) (974) (827) (413) Time use for listening to radio by the head of household 0.353 0.325 0.523 0.729 0.234 0.000*** 4.53 (hours) (981) (974) (827) (417) Time use for listening to radio by the head of household 0.36 0.328 0.394 0.562 0.2 0.000*** 3.87 (hours) (950) (934) (383) (219) Note: a. Impact Evaluation of the EASSDP by Green Growth Solutions and Kabanos Business Services Ltd’ Means and Standard Errors are estimated by linear regression Inference: *** p<0.01; ** p<0.05; * p<0.1 Page 26 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) Gender 69. The impact evaluation carried out between 2014 and 2016 showed significant positive impacts on women, as follows: (a) The number of women who died during childbirth reduced significantly in health centers that had been connected to electricity. (b) The number of women visiting health care facilities after they had been connected to electricity almost doubled and those who delivered at health care facilities connected to electricity increased significantly. (c) The number of females ages 16 and above who visited health care facilities connected to electricity increased significantly. (d) Enrollment of girls in schools that had been connected to electricity increased slightly. (e) Performance of girls in the final examinations improved. (f) The female teaching population increased significantly. Institutional Strengthening 70. The success of Rwanda’s electrification program under the eSWAp proved to be a groundbreaking approach for Africa’s electrification program and is now being replicated in different countries across the continent. Although the SWAp concept was already in use in different sectors in different African countries, an eSWAp in Rwanda was the first to be piloted. The objective of the eSWAp framework and process was to provide the GoR with a vehicle to steer away from the business-as-usual modalities of fragmented aid delivery to the energy sector and toward a sector development perspective led by the Government and shaped by the basic tenets of donor engagement. Both the framework and process would be anchored by national priorities, alignment, harmonization, and joint accountability and managing results. An SWG was set up to implement the SWAp under the coordination of the eSWAp secretariat. The SWG includes government departments, development partners, private sector, NGOs, and civil society organizations. 71. The EARP was set up under the eSWAp concept with the objective to implement the Government access rollout program under one body. Component C of the EASSDP financed technical assistance and capacity building to ensure adequate management of the EARP and the SWAp. The program focused on three main areas of support: (a) Institutional strengthening and program implementation, including training of staff within EARP (courses included project management, purchasing management contract management, M&E for results, financial management [FM], and planning and strategic management). (b) Development of a SWAp for the energy sector, including financing of the positions within the eSWAp secretariat that overlooked the operation of the eSWAp and SWG. Page 27 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) (c) Technical assistance to develop strong sector institutions and strategies. 72. During 2013, the World Bank, through the EASSDP, provided technical expertise to the energy sector on institutional reform within the sector, aimed at achieving financial sector sustainability. The EASSDP financed the consultancy services to design and implement the reform activities (the Energy Sector Functional and Organizational Design36). The results of the reform process included the following: (a) the EWSA was split, energy and water functions separated, and the EUCL, EDCL, and REG formed under company law; (b) key business processes for the EUCL and EDCL were defined and the organizational structures of the two companies redeveloped; (c) job descriptions were developed for the senior management team; and (d) competitive hiring of staff to fill the positions in the new company was carried out. Mobilizing Private Sector Financing 73. The project did not consist of any links for mobilization of private finance. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 74. During 2010 to 2016, access rates for rural populations increased from 4 percent to 18 percent. At the time of project preparation, only 6 percent of Rwandan households had access to grid electricity. These were concentrated in urban and peri-urban areas. The program focused on household connections to urban, peri-urban, and rural populations. At the time of project closure, 31 percent of Rwandan households had access to grid electricity, including rural populations. Figure 4 shows the growth of electricity access among rural populations between 2010 and 2016. 75. Experience suggests that electrification provides a solid basis for development of local communities and that universal access to electricity is critical for improving living standards, eradicating poverty, and achieving sustainable development. In Rwanda, an impact evaluation of rural communities connected to grid electricity shows a general improvement in quality of life and increase in incomes (see table 3). 36Energy Sector Functional and Organizational Design, Contract for consulting services No.11.07.029/824/14/EARP-LTU- DIR/NK/j.p.s. (Eduardo Bergerie Pagadoy, July 4, 2014). Page 28 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) Figure 4. Growth of Access to Electricity among Rural Populations between 2010 and 2016 37 Improved Aid Effectiveness 76. The alignment of the GoR National Strategy for Transformation 2017–2024 (NST1) targets to the PDO of the EASSDP demonstrates the relevance of the project to the GoR going forward, after its close. The EDPRS1 (2008–2012) targets for the electricity sector included increasing access to electricity to households and priority public institutions.38The ESSP 2018/20919–2023/2024 set the high-level targets for the energy sector (see table 4) that will be incorporated into the NST1. The targets include (a) 100 percent household access to electricity, (b) 100 percent productive user access to electricity, (c) increase of reliability of electricity (reducing number of interruptions per year), and (d) reduction of transmission and distribution losses that increase cost-effectiveness of electricity. 77. All the funds raised under the SWAp are being managed by the EARP and contribute to the objectives of the EDPRS1 and 2 and will continue to contribute to the next ESSP. The SWAp proved instrumental in leveraging significant amounts of donor funds for the GoR’s electrification program. All donor financing related to the electricity access rollout was channeled through, and implemented by, the EARP. The EARP followed the guidelines in the IP-2009 and the SOFRECO report to deliver the Government 37 World Bank SE4ALL database from the SE4ALL Global Tracking Framework led jointly by the World Bank, International Energy Agency, and the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. 38 Increase of electricity connections to households (70,000 to 200,000) and supply to 300 administrative centers and service delivery points, 1,000 schools, and 180 health centers. Page 29 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) targets. This model ensured that aid to the GoR was relevant to the needs of the country. At the time of project closure, donors involved in supporting the GoR access rollout program through the EARP were as follows: (a) BADEA (US$11.2 million) , (b) Government of Netherlands (US$50.9 million), (c) OPEC Fund (US$22 million), (d) Saudi Fund (US$11.7 million), (e) World Bank (US$175 million), (f) Belgian Embassy (€42.7 million), and (g) AfDB (US$42 million). As the leading donor, the World Bank was the main contributor to the EARP. Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 78. In 2013, the World Bank provided technical expertise to the energy sector on institutional reform within the sector. The demonstrated success of the EASSDP and the recommendations from the reform exercise contributed to the decision to fund a new project, Rwanda Electricity Sector Strengthening Project (RESSP). The new project followed through on increasing the World Bank’s finance to support the electricity access agenda and implementing some of the recommendations from the reform exercise. The RESSP included installation of an Integrated Business Management Information System (IBMIS), which was one of the strong recommendations of the reform exercise. Table 4. ESSP 2018/2019–2023/2024 High-level Targets a ESSP High-level Target Objectives • Generation capacity increased to ensure that all demand is met, and a 15 percent reserve margin is maintained. • Reliability of electricity supply improved: average number of power interruptions per year reduced to 16 and average number of hours without power to 9. • Household access to electricity increased to 100 percent. • Productive user access to electricity increased to 100 percent. • Street lighting expanded to all national and district roads. • Losses in the transmission and distribution networks reduced to 15 percent. • The number of households depending on firewood as a source of energy for cooking halved to 42 percent. • Petroleum strategic reserves increased to cover three months’ supply. Note: a. ESSP 2017–2024. Page 30 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION Objectives and Results Framework 79. The EASSDP objectives were clearly defined. The objectives on improving access were easily measurable and easily attributable to either the EASSDP or EARP. The objective on improving cost- effectiveness of electricity was an EARP objective, which was clearly defined, easily measurable, and attributable. These objectives were also realistically set, with enough ambition inbuilt to motivate the PIU to strive to meet them. The basis for setting the targets for improving access and cost-effectiveness and the logic behind their values was clear. The baselines were available. The targets for grid rollout to households were appropriate. Monitoring was coordinated at sector level through the eSWAp secretariat and at project level within the EARP. 80. The targets for priority public institutions, through grid connections, were very aggressive considering the status of the MV backbone at preparation, although the targets were almost met. Although, as specified in the implementation plan, all social institutions within 5 km distance of the grid were connected, the MV backbone rollout was not sufficient for the project to meet the connection targets. The IP-2009 clearly specified that ‘social institutions that fall outside the areas identified for grid electrification have been prioritized for electricity supply by 2012 through the installation of solar PV units’. The project focused on grid rollout for electricity connections and as a result did not monitor off - grid connections of the EARP. This resulted in reporting a shortfall in connections to administrative offices and health centers, as all administrative offices and health centers not connected to the grid by project closure were connected by off-grid solutions. 81. The objective on improving of reliability of electricity failed to insulate the project from other activities on the network that could affect reliability. In addition, it was impossible at the time to collect specific data to qualify whether the project activities directly contributed to the noted deterioration of the supply reliability. The baseline was set based on extrapolation estimates found in the ‘South Zone Report, Republic of Rwanda Electricity Access Rollout Program’. Although the target was clearly defined, considering the status of the monitoring tools in the utility at the time, it was difficult to assign accurate indicators to monitor the target. Results of the MTF survey, conducted in 2016, indicated that in fact, reliability is not a major problem for the Rwanda electricity network and has actually been improving. This corresponds with the SAIDI/SAIFI results shown from the 2017/2018 utility reliability data, which is measured much more accurately after the utility completed successful installation of a geographic information system mapping system enabling them to accurately report on incident duration and frequency. Project Design 82. The project was designed based on key success principles drawn from worldwide experience. Those principles incorporated included (a) following the IP-2009 that was anchored by a well-prioritized and planned geospatial least-cost rollout plan driven by the EDPRS targets and guided by multisectoral developmental priorities of Rwanda; (b) an overall financing policy for the program that strikes a measured and workable balance between affordability to beneficiaries, limited availability, and opportunity cost of funds for investment in Rwanda, while also ensuring the commercial viability of RECO Page 31 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) and overall program sustainability; and (c) a series of targeted interventions to lower the investment costs of the program and enhance affordability of connection costs to more beneficiaries as well as measures to help lower their electricity bills through energy efficiency measures. 83. The project design also reflected lessons from both the World Bank engagement in Rwanda and the World Bank’s experience in national electrification programs and SWAp framework development. The SWAp design, which led to an MOU between the GoR and leading development partners in the energy sector and setting up of the EARP, was instrumental in consolidating the design of the project. 84. Component A (National Grid Rollout) was simply designed and clear to understand and implement. The rollout of the component and its subcomponents were based on the IP-2009 that was developed by the GoR with the help of an independent consultant.39 The subcomponents were very clear, including (a) grid intensification in urban and peri-urban areas; (b) electrification of new districts and sectors, including MV extensions and LV reticulations; and (c) backbone MV/HV grid strengthening, improved operational capacity, and service network expansion. The prospectus outlined an implementation plan to be followed for the grid rollout, by specifying a grid prioritization model to guide the PIU. 85. Component B (Green Connections) was designed with a view to incorporate affordability and efficiency into the EASSDP, because affordability was highlighted in the IP-2009 as one of the barriers to increasing access. The key principles borrowed from worldwide experience for the project included the following: (a) successful programs have involved some form of subsidy from the Government to address affordability of service to new customers; (b) lowering the down payment for a new service connection and recovering the balance through an easy installment plan payable on the monthly electricity bill enables a far larger number of lower-income families to obtain electricity and its attendant benefits; and (c) equipment standards, network designs, and construction practices that have been widely and successfully applied in many instances are available and can reduce unit new connection costs in the order of 20 percent to 30+ percent. 86. Component B’s design incorporated the use of ready boards to lower the risk of low uptake owing to affordability constraints, which addressed one of the barriers to access. The ready boards would facilitate buying down of connection cost for poorer households by reducing the need for household wiring, hence qualifying households in dwellings previously not suitable for a connection, such as thatched roofed households. The project was also designed to pilot less costly connection types suitable for poorer households, such as load limiters. 87. To improve affordability and efficiency, Component B was designed to provide each new customer with four CFLs (two pieces 100 W equivalent for space lighting and two pieces 60 W equivalent for task lighting) and information on energy consumption and cost for commonly used appliances, as well as an introduction to potential productive-use applications. This component would be co-financed by the utility using some of the proceeds from the CFL Emission Reduction Purchase Agreement that had just been signed. 39 National Electricity Access Program Investment Prospectus, Castalia Consulting Group, March 2009. Page 32 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) 88. To further address the efficiency issue, Component B would provide incentives to promote the use of SWHs sold through private dealers (by financing a voucher system to provide partial subsidies (up to 40 percent of an estimate capital cost of an estimated US$1,200 per unit). During project implementation supervision, the supervision team proactively addressed the slow movement of the SWH component by dropping it during a project restructuring exercise while acknowledging that this action would not affect the achievement of the PDO. 89. Component C (Technical Assistance, Capacity Strengthening, and Implementation Support) was designed to ensure that the PIU had adequate finance and capacity to implement and report on the grid rollout program. The design of the component was clear and addressed the possible gaps in capacity that could be foreseen at the time. This component played the important role of operationalization and capacity building of the EARP PIU and the eSWAp secretariat, which were core to both delivery of the GoR’s electricity access rollout and eSWAP sector oversight and development. 90. The SWAp concept ensured that all appropriate stakeholders were involved in the program. The GoR and the leading donors to the energy sector, led by the World Bank, signed an MOU that set the tone for coordination of support to the energy sector. The MOU outlined that the SWAp formed would address the energy sector as whole in planning, monitoring, and in allocation of resources to facilitate the attainment of the goals set out in the EDPRS1.40 The SWG under the SWAp is coordinated by a SWAp secretariat under MININFRA. MININFRA chairs the SWG with the support of the development partners, who co-chair the SWG. Both at project design and project closure, the World Bank was the lead development partner co-chairing the SWG. 91. The EASSDP was anticipated to have limited adverse environmental and social impacts and was assigned the Environmental Assessment Category B in accordance with the World Bank Operational Policy on Safeguards. The project triggered two safeguards policies, the Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01) and the Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12). An Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) and Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) were prepared and disclosed both in- country and at the World Bank InfoShop in February 2009. During the preparation of the AF, both the ESMF and RPF were updated and disclosed in Rwanda in November 2012 and at the World Bank InfoShop on November 20, 2012. The framework approach (ESMF and RPF) was adopted because the precise locations of project implementation sites were not known at the time of project preparation. The ESMF and RPF developed to cover the project established mechanisms to determine and assess future potential environmental and social impacts of the planned activities under the proposed project. During the implementation phase of the project, site-specific safeguards instruments such as the Environmental and Social Management plans (ESMPs) and Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs) were prepared and disclosed in- country and at the World Bank InfoShop before the commencement of any civil works. The project was always in compliance during the implementation phase. 92. M&E at project design was planned under the SWAp secretariat, who was mandated to hire a suitably qualified M&E coordinator for the access program. The responsibilities of the M&E specialist were to design the data monitoring program, collect information under the program, and report on the program progress (both for grid and off-grid sections of the program). 40 MoU between MININFRA and the development partners for a SWAp in the energy sector, July 3, 2008. Page 33 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) 93. Critical risks were adequately identified and mitigation measured proposed. The overall risk of the operation was rated Moderate. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 94. The project experienced a delayed start owing to low implementation readiness and inadequate structure of the PIU. The project was approved in October 2009 and became effective eight months later. The first disbursement was four months after effectiveness, delaying the project start by one year. Effectiveness conditions included (a) execution and ratification of the subsidiary agreement, (b) establishment of the Program Management Directorate, (c) adoption of the Project Implementation Manual, and (d) appointment project accountant. The project was declared effective on June 4, 2010. The PIU was formed after the project was approved and, at its onset, did not have all the required human resources. Critical functions relied on resources seconded to the project from the utility. These resources did not spend 100 percent of their time with the project and at times did not have the appropriate skills. In addition, the utility initially funded operational costs of the project, like stores, fuel, and utilities. The PIU could not, therefore, act completely independently at the project onset. This was eventually corrected by full staffing of the PIU. 95. The approval structure at the PIU at its onset was heavily layered with minimum delegation of authority, contributing to slow progress of decision making and slowing down implementation. During implementation, the approval guidelines for the project were modified to allow the PIU to make decisions below a defined threshold and thereby enabling the project to pick up a faster pace. Until project closure, however, slow decision making persisted. 96. At the project onset, the PIU staff had heavy workloads and limited knowledge of World Bank procedures and processes. Although the EARP had multiple donors funding electrification projects, the World Bank was the only donor at the onset of the program supporting the PIU staff. The limited PIU staff funded by the EASSDP were supporting projects from more than one donor, contributing to the heavy workload of staff. Additionally, because each donor agency had different governing procurement processes, there was a time lag due to learning curves because the staff had to master the requirements of multiple donors. 97. The project was managed under the SWAp concept, led by the GoR, ensuring high-level leadership and oversight. The SWAp clearly assigned roles and responsibilities to all the parties involved in the GoR grid rollout program. The GoR demonstrated leadership and commitment to the access rollout program and set up a reporting mechanism through the backward looking joint sector reports (BLJSRs) and forward looking joint sector reports (FLJSRs) that were presented to the SWG and approved by the GoR. The SWAp setup ensured the participation of all stakeholders in the energy sector by ensuring approval of major policy documentation through the SWGs. 98. Component B of the project did not perform as well as anticipated. The SWH activity of Component B of the project suffered from the problem of the heavily layered decision-making structure of the PIU, leading to slow decision making related to procurement decisions. This slow process was also related to lack of understanding of the World Bank procurement procedures. In addition, the implementation supervision team studied the experience of the EU and BTC-funded PV project for schools, whereby procurement processes were delayed, and poor-quality equipment was delivered. Page 34 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) Because of this delay in making procurement decisions and the negative experience of the EU/BTC PV project, the SWH component of the project was eventually dropped when the implementation supervision team realized that the component would not be delivered adequately before project closure. 99. The CFL activity of Component B did not materialize because the utility had an identical activity of distributing CFLs with each electricity connection. The utility had adequate CFLs in stock, and the distribution worked successfully.41 This, coupled with the GoR policy of banning all non-CFL lighting accessories, ensured the success of 100 percent CFL use in the country. 100. The ready boards activity of Component B was, however, successfully implemented. The project delivered and installed 60,000 ready boards to households that would otherwise not have benefited from the project. 101. The PIU found it challenging to balance delivery targets because of delays of payment for expropriation. The PIU, in following the World Bank social safeguards rules, was mandated to ensure payment of project affected persons (PAPs) before construction. Although the PIU requested compensation payments from MINECOFIN well in time for timely execution of works, the payments were often delayed, leading to delays in implementation of works. To mitigate some delays in some cases, the PIU settled the compensations directly from their own funds. Most of the reasons for delays in payments were out of the control of the PIU, including funding gaps within MINECOFIN. Some of the reasons were also directly related to the PAPs, for example when PAPs did not have, and were not willing to open, bank accounts. The World Bank task team ensured that the PIU understood the importance of social safeguards compliance so that the PIU could cause their management to apply pressure to MINECOFIN to effect PAP payments. 41RECO was distributing 800,000 CFLs to households and by the time of project design had already distributed 200,000. During the project lifetime, a further 600,000 CFLs were distributed. Page 35 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 102. The PDO indicators were reasonably adequate to monitor progress of the PDOs during implementation and the theory of change of the project was clear. The EASSDP objective was to improve access to reliable and cost-effective electricity services for households and priority public institutions. The indicators to capture the objectives to (a) improve access of electricity services for households and (b) improve access of electricity services for priority public institutions were adequate to monitor the objective. 103. The indicator to capture the objective to ‘improve reliability of electricity services’ captured more than just the effects of the grid rollout on the reliability of the electricity grid. Furthermore, the data were collected from the National Dispatching Center, which was in the utility (EWSA/EUCL), making it difficult to coordinate and ascertain accuracy of the results. It was, therefore, not a good indicator for the purposes intended. 104. The indicator to capture the objective ‘improve cost-effectiveness of electricity services’ was adequate to monitor the cost per connection of the grid connection. Although other factors contributed to the cost-effectiveness of electricity services, the cost per connection is the only factor that was in the control of the project and was hence appropriate. M&E Implementation 105. The M&E function was managed adequately for purposes of monitoring and reporting of the project progress. Before a substantive PIU was put into place, M&E was carried out through the eSWAp secretariat. The PIU eventually hired an M&E specialist funded through the EASSDP. Although the position was funded by the EASSDP, the specialist was carrying out M&E activities for non-World Bank-funded projects. The PIU did not have sufficient numbers of field personnel for M&E, making data collection slower than anticipated. Notwithstanding the shortcoming in staffing, data collection on the EASSDP PDO indicators was collected and reported in a methodologically sound manner. 106. Project results collected were consolidated into sector results and reported through the GoR’s BLJSR reviews. The results were also used to inform targets for the GoR’s FLJSR reviews through which annual sector targets were set. M&E Utilization 107. The M&E data were used to inform project management and decision making in a timely and appropriate manner. The M&E data were used in the following ways: (a) The data were instrumental for use in sector annual forecasts related to electrification. The quarterly customer connection data, combined with procurement and project management status of different projects, gave a fairly accurate indication of possible connections for the next quarter. Page 36 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) (b) At the time of the AF to the EASSDP in 2012, the M&E data were used to inform new targets for the project. (c) Nonperformance of Component B informed the decision to drop the component during a 2016 restructuring of the project. (d) The decision to amend the connection policy of the Government arose from analysis that showed that the connections close to the MV backbone (which likely were the more affluent of the rural populations) had been exhausted, and there was a need to incentivize communities further from the MV backbone to connect to the electricity grid. 108. The MTR of the EARP, conducted in September 2012, recommended a review of the then ongoing connection policy, and this contributed to connections further downstream that would otherwise not benefit from the project. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 109. The quality of M&E is rated Substantial. Notwithstanding the shortcomings that arose from limitations for indicators to measure the objective related to reliability of electricity supply and limited staffing, the quality of M&E from design to implementation enabled reasonable systematic tracking of project progress. The M&E data were used to inform decisions related directly to the project, sector- related targets, and policy decisions. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE Social and Environmental Safeguards 110. The safeguards rating at the close of the project was Satisfactory for both environmental and social safeguards. The project was assigned Category B as it was not anticipated to have significant, large- scale, or irreversible negative environmental and social impacts. The project triggered OP/BP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment) and OP/BP 4.12 (Involuntary Resettlement). The project was deemed not to pose significant risks or impacts to natural habitats, physical cultural resources, and forests nor was it expected to affect any indigenous peoples. The project did not require the use of pesticides or the construction or rehabilitation of dams. It was anticipated that the project would contribute to the reduction of fuel wood and charcoal demand, thus alleviating some of the root causes of deforestation in the country. 111. The project prepared and disclosed an ESMF and RPF before project appraisal. The ESMF was disclosed both in-country and at the World Bank InfoShop in February 2009. During the preparation of the AF, both the 2009 ESMF and RPF were updated and redisclosed in Rwanda and at the World Bank InfoShop in November 2012. The use of frameworks was required for this project because it was not possible to ascertain the scope and nature of risks and impacts because the precise locations of the subprojects before the project appraisal were not known. During the implementation phase of the project, the project prepared and disclosed ESMPs and RAPs for each of the eight subprojects that were identified. These plans were cleared by the Rwanda Development Board’s environmental compliance unit, disclosed in- country, and shared with the World Bank. Page 37 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) 112. The project completely implemented the proposed mitigation measures during construction and operation phases and there are no residual negative impacts reported. The World Bank’s environmental and social specialists continuously oversaw the implementation progress and supported the execution of the safeguards instruments. The project did not experience any unanticipated impacts during implementation. 113. Restructuring of the project did not affect the relevance or validity of the ESMF, ESMPs, RPF, and RAPs as the purpose of the restructuring was for additional finance, affecting scale and time, and not for additional activities or changes in materials aspects of project components. 114. The reporting on the implementation of the eight EMPs and eight RAPs, though regular, in some instances did not completely reflect the actual mitigation actions implemented. Progress on the implementation of some activities, in the ESMPs, was not well detailed in the monitoring reports. These activities included trainings conducted, awareness-raising activities undertaken, and stakeholder engagement and consultation meetings. 115. The PIU prepared a report covering the consolidated implementation progress of the eight subproject ESMPs throughout the project duration. This report points out the mitigation measures implemented in response to the negative environmental and social impacts encountered during project implementation. The report also shows that all anticipated negative impacts were short term, site specific, and managed through the implementation of the respective ESMPs. 116. Only one subproject (Rukarara substation funded by OPEC FUND) involved land acquisition and hence physical relocation. The other subprojects that were distribution lines that had no land acquisition implications involved only compensation of trees and crops. All compensation payments were completed by end December 2017. In total, 3,678 households were affected, including 75 households that lost land and 30 households that were physically relocated. The key challenge in the implementation of the RAPs was the delays in compensation because of unavailability of the required cash on time. A Resettlement Completion Report was prepared and shared with the World Bank. The report shows that the project was always in full compliance during implementation. Procurement 117. The procurement rating at project closing was Moderately Satisfactory. Project procurement activity at project start was performing well and rated ‘Satisfactory’; however, from October 2015, the rate was downgraded to ‘Moderately Satisfactory’. The major reasons for the downgrading were (a) the slow movement of the procurement plan owing to a slow decision-making process by the utility top management and (b) high procurement staff turnover. The World Bank’s task team provided close technical and implementation support to maintain the same procurement rating throughout the project life. Restructuring of the implementing agency in the middle of the project implementation and subsequent move of the project to a newly formed agency also contributed to delays. 118. The World Bank team and the PIU worked closely to ensure that the project used the unused finance toward the project closure, with no time to initiate new tender processes. The World Bank team advised the use of innovative approaches and finally all the contracts were substantially implemented. Some of the innovative approaches that the PIU applied were (a) procurement from United Nations Page 38 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) agencies (UNOPS) and (b) use of Limited International Bidding. The project implementation supervision teams judged that a few contracts would not be delivered by the time of project closure because of time constraints, and these were systematically moved to the RESSP, a project which is relatively young. The funds released by this action were reallocated for other similarly important procurements that could be completed within the remaining time frame. Financial Management 119. The FM performance was Moderately Satisfactory during project implementation mainly because of (a) qualified audit opinions and (b) delayed adequate FM staffing, which affected the capacity to effectively monitor FM-related issues on time. The main lesson is that early adequate FM staffing is critical to improve project FM performance. Legal Covenants 120. At project closure, the project had two major legal covenants, as follows: (a) Legal Covenant A [1(a)], “The PIE shall produce, for each of its FY after its FY year ending on June 30, 2010, funds from internal sources equivalent to not less than ten percent (10%) of the annual average of the PIE’s distribution capital expenditures incurred, or expected to be incurred, for that fiscal year and the next following fiscal year, including consumer contributions in aid of construction” and (b) Legal Covenant A [2(a)], “The PIE shall earn, for each of its fiscal years after its fiscal year ending on December 31, 2015, an annual return of not less than zero percent (0%) of the average current net value of its fixed assets in operation.” The objective of the legal covenants was to ensure sustainability of the project outcomes and the utility. Participation of the GoR through financial contribution to the project would give the Government a larger incentive to ensure project success and continuity. Monitoring of the financial health of the utility was aimed at monitoring the continued ability of the utility to profitably maintain the growing assets that the project contributed to. 121. Legal Covenant A [1(a)] was partially complied with, as follows: (a) The GoR contributed US$73,155,401 to the electrification program through (i) Financing electrification in six districts in the eastern province of the country; and (ii) Financing expropriation costs. The EWSA and REG have contributed US$70,198,284 to the EARP through payments of fuel, labor for linesmen, security, construction material, and customs and import duties. (b) The EWSA collected RWF 11,623,466,727 from customer connection fees, which was not transferred to the project. The GoR decided that this liability would be settled over five years through the national budget, in accordance with the Prime Ministers order No 87/03 du 16/08/2014. The EUCL has sent a demand note to the Ministry of Finance for the first RWF 2 billion payment. (c) The EUCL’s liability to the EDCL from customer connection fees as at February 28, 2018, was RWF 1,603,135,186. The EDCL will continue to bill the EUCL monthly for ongoing Page 39 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) connections, and the two companies will continue monthly reconciliations. The EUCL has maintained a standing order to the EDCL of RWF 200 million per month, toward payment of monthly customer connection fees. 122. Legal Covenant A [2(a)] was complied with for fiscal years 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 but not complied with for FY2016/2017. It is worth noting that failure to meet this covenant is not attributable to the project, but mainly to the financial structure of the energy sector. The energy sector consists of high energy delivery costs and tariffs that are not cost reflective. In addition, during 2016/2017, the EUCL spent extra resources on increased network maintenance aimed at reducing network failures. The EUCL’s target is to reduce the losses to RWF 1.1 billion during FY2017/2018 and return to profitable operations in the subsequent periods. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 123. The project was relevant to the needs of the GoR as was specified in the EDPRS1 and EDPRS2, and in line with the CAS (2009–2012). The project’s technical design was relevant, based on a robust assessment of the status of the network and sector, that was carried out by the GoR with the assistance of both the Castalia Strategic Advisors ‘Rwanda Electricity Sector Access Program, Investment Prospectus, March 2009’ and piloting low-cost electrification technology (including a partnership with STEG to pilot SWER). The earlier setup of the eSWAP ensured that an appropriate structure was in existence for implementation, monitoring, and government oversight. The MOU signed between the GoR and major donors to the energy sector ensured continuity of financial support for the sector electrification plans. The alignment between the CAS and the EDPRS ensured relevance of the project in the country. 124. The IP-2009 had identified capacity factors that would affect the implementation readiness for the project to take off. These included capacity challenges in the areas of finance, technical, planning, procurement, communication, and stakeholder management. The project team also identified similar fiduciary gaps in the country and anticipated challenges related to multi-donor system. The project attempted to put in place mitigation measures, following guidance from the IP-2009, based on organizational quality, and sufficient financing to assist in bridging capacity gaps. In practice, project kick- off was delayed due to low implementation readiness. 125. Social development aspects were linked to productive use of electricity in targeted areas, including rural markets centers and clusters of commercial activities, although there was no specific reference to gender. Possible impacts on the environment were analyzed, and the risk to damage to environment was limited and would be addressed through the ESMF that was prepared. Stakeholders were appropriately consulted regarding both potential social and environmental effects of the project. Social effects were to be addressed through the RPF that was prepared and disclosed. 126. The CFL and SWH activities of Component B may not have been properly analyzed at project preparation, leading to failure of the activities to be funded by the project. The utility already had a Page 40 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) similar ongoing CFL project.42 It is not clear from existing documentation whether the project preparation included analysis of whether the sector had the capacity to absorb additional finance for this activity. It is also not clear from existing documentation whether adequate analysis was carried out to support the design of the SWH activity involving private sector and financial institutions. This analysis would include readiness of private sector to participate in the design and readiness of financial institutions to provide credit toward this activity. Quality of Supervision 127. The quality of the supervision of the EASSDP was Satisfactory. The project has had four task team leaders over its lifetime. Three of the four task team leaders have been resident in the country and, therefore, accessible to the client to provide necessary hands-on support. The task teams consisted of all the relevant resources, including those related to fiduciary matters (finance, procurement, legal, and safeguards). 128. The World Bank provided formal supervision through missions, supporting the client to identify any issues that required attention early enough to address them and submitting Aide Memoires to the client after each mission. A total of 15 implementation Status and Results Reports (ISRs), systematically documenting project performance, were filed. During each mission, emphasis was placed on (a) advancing the Procurement Plan, (b) addressing the safeguards requirements, and (c) complying to the legal covenants of the project. The World Bank task team consisted of experienced members who guided the PIU toward successfully implementing the project. Examples of guidance included (a) procurement guidance, including use of UNOPS to quickly deliver goods to the client with a tight deadline to project closure; (b) environmental and social safeguards guidance, including technical guidance on international standards for right-of-way clearances and best practices to engage project-affected communities; (c) FM guidance, including management to close recommendations from external audits; and (d) technical guidance, including guidance on best engineering practices to achieve lower cost electrification projects and other such support. 129. During December 2013, the World Bank task team downgraded the ‘Progress toward achievement of PDO’ and ‘Overall Implementation Progress’ ratings from Satisfactory to M oderately Satisfactory. These ratings were upgraded at the end of the project back to Satisfactory. The main reasons the ratings were downgraded in 2013 were related to the poor financial performance of the utility, which put the PDOs at risk. By the end of the project, the reasons were assessed and the task team decided to upgrade the ratings owing to the following: (a) the GoR was taking appropriate actions to address the utility’s financial performance through actions defined in the World Bank-financed RESSP and Development Policy Operation, (b) the project had met and exceeded most of the targets set, and (c) the risk that the PDOs of the project would not be sustained going forward remained low. 130. The World Bank task team also offered timely support and guidance, leading to project extensions to ensure that the client uses as close to 100 percent of the fund as possible. After the AF in 2012, the World Bank team restructured the project thrice, to address constraints that had been identified during supervision missions and guarantee the full disbursement of project funds. Restructuring No. 2, 42RECO was distributing 800,000 CFLs to households and by the time of project design had already distributed 200,000. During the project lifetime, a further 600,000 CFLs were distributed. Page 41 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) carried out in May 2016 addressed (a) including the outcomes of the reform process conducted in the electricity sector into the project and (b) the slow progress of Component B of the project that was leading to slow disbursements on the component. Restructuring Nos. 3 and 4 (carried out in May and December 2017, respectively) addressed time-related extensions to enable the project use as close to 100 percent of the funds as possible. Toward the June 2017 project closure, while the PIU was interested in purchasing trucks for the project, it realized that the process of purchasing the trucks would go beyond the closing date of the project. The World Bank task team advised the PIU to use UNOPS to manage this procurement, as this would avoid the long procurement process that was typical of the utility. The PIU faced challenges with UNOPS, who, during and after the contract was signed continuously failed to commit to delivery times agreed between the two contracting parties. The World Bank task team involved the expertise of the procurement lead specialist, who had experience with both UNOPS and incoterms, to resolve the delivery issue and ensure that the goods were delivered in a manner that the funds expenditure was eligible for World Bank finance. 131. In addition to the supervision and oversight the World Bank task team, as co-chair of the SWG, ensured quality of information was achieved for reporting to the SWG coordination meetings and the JSR review meetings. This contributed to the monitoring of the sector and the success of the SWAp initiative. The World Bank task team leader for the project was the de facto co-chair of the SWG, which also entailed overseeing the activities of the eSWAP secretariat. The SWG is responsible for approval of policy documents in the energy sector and reviewing sector reports. The World Bank task team oversaw the quality of information transmitted to the SWG for review and approval, including information generated from the M&E exercise of the project that reported both project and program results. 132. With the position of co-chair, the World Bank was also tasked with coordination of the donors to the energy sector and leading sector dialogue on behalf of the donor community. This entailed organizing regular meetings between the major donors to the energy sector to (a) review and have common understanding of the projects being financed by each donor (with a view to eliminate duplication of resources), (b) harmonize positions on suggested policy changes or introductions by the GoR, and (c) harmonize positions on policy introductions or changes to suggest to the GoR. 133. An MTR was conducted for the EARP, to which the EASSDP contributed, in September 2012. The report detailed successes of the program and documented recommendations, many of which were considered by the GoR. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 134. The overall quality of Bank performance is rated Satisfactory. The World Bank provided sound support to the PIU during all phases of the implementation by ensuring the full compliance with World Bank fiduciary rules. The World Bank team provided robust support to the GoR to design the project aligned both to the GoR objectives for the energy sector and the CAS (2009–2012). The World Bank team supported the PIU with guidance during project kick-off and strong technical support during implementation. As part of overall sector support, the World Bank team used the project to provide technical advice on institutional reform, which was taken up by the Government. In addition, the World Bank was flexible to the evolving needs of the Government and accommodated them during project restructuring. Although the project was extended four times for reasons elaborated earlier, this ensured 100 percent disbursement of the funds and surpassed most of the targets of the project. Page 42 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 135. The risk that the development outcomes achieved by the project may not be maintained, is Low. The risks to the PDO outcomes include (a) funding gaps to cater to increased electricity access to households and priority public institutions and increased system reliability, (b) decrease in system quality and reliability due to factors outside the control of the project, (c) affordability related to high costs of electricity services because of factors outside the control of the project, and (d) sector financial sustainability and institutional capacity to plan and manage the utility prudently. 136. The required estimated funding to meet the ESSP (2018/2019–2023/2024) targets are approximately US$1 billion, including a combination of funding from the GoR, development partners, and private sector. The risk that this funding is not available in its entirety to meet the targets of the current ESSP/NST poses a risk to PDO outcomes not being maintained in the related period. The ESSP (2018/2019–2023/2024) targets the following by 2024: (a) 100 percent access to electricity for all households by a combination of grid and off-grid means, (b) 100 percent access to productive loads, (c) 100 percent street lighting on all national and district roads, and (d) decrease of average number of power interruptions per year to 16 and average number of hours without power to 9. The current ESSP is in line with the CAS (2014–2018) that was approved by the World Bank Board in 2014. The CAS emphasized that (a) energy was still an important driving factor for the private sector-led growth that the EDPRS2 outlined;43 (b) rural electrification provides benefits in consumption and human capital accumulation; and (c) major constraints to investment in Rwanda include high energy costs, insufficient generation capacity, and limited transmission networks. The GoR has included the sector goals in the draft NST1, which is a strong indication that the GoR will focus on raising funds to meet sector goals. 137. Several system-strengthening projects are being implemented and are planned to increase system reliability. The reliability of the electricity system is affected by a combination of sources of electricity, age and maintenance status of the transmission and distribution network, and quality of network operation. The GoR is aware of the risks and consequences of low reliability and has initiated several projects to strengthen the network. The ongoing system strengthening projects include (a) the World Bank-financed RESSP, financing reinforcements of 19 switching stations in Kigali; (b) the EU- financed Kigali Ring project, financing construction of 27 km of 110 kV lines around Kigali, two new substations, and extension of two existing substations; (c) the Japan International Cooperation Agency- financed 40 MVA new substation in Kigali (near growing load center ‘special economic zone’); (d) the EUCL-financed rehabilitation of six switching stations; (d) Enabel-financed upgrade of Rubavu substation from 6.6 kV to 30 kV; (e) the GoR-financed transmission lines (110 kV Rulindo-Gabiro-Musha), including a new substation, that connects northern Rwanda, eastern Rwanda, and Kigali; and (f) the GoR-financed Rulindo-Byumba 30 kV line. Several other projects are planned, including substation reinforcements, transmission line upgrades, and new transmission lines. System reliability continues to receive increased focus from the utility and the GoR. 138. The cost of supply of electricity service in Rwanda remains high, at approximately US¢30 per kWh; however, the GoR is focused on addressing this problem in the medium to long term. The bulk of the cost is related to the cost of power generation. The current high cost does not meet the PDO outcome related to the cost-effectiveness of electricity services and directly affects the financial sustainability of 43 The first theme of the EDPRS2 is accelerating economic growth that is private sector driven and job creating. Page 43 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) the energy sector. The Government is aware of the financial and fiscal risks and has initiated a reform program, which is supported by a three-year World Bank Development Policy Operation during FY2018– 2020 (US$125 million each). The reform program includes a comprehensive set of measures to reduce the cost of service, including a transition to fully competitive procurement, least-cost planning of power generation investments, least-cost planning of electrification investments, and utility reforms. Because of these measures, the cost of service is expected to fall by up to a third in the long term (by the mid-2020s), but financial and fiscal risks remain in the short to medium term. 139. Although there are risks that threaten the sustainability of the project outcomes, the GoR is aware of them and has taken measures to mitigate these risks. The risk that the development outcomes achieved by the project may not be maintained is therefore Low. Page 44 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 140. Major lessons emerging from the EASSDP are detailed in the following paragraphs. 141. Lesson 1: Projects designed based on a credible prospectus and geospatial mapping stand on a strong foundation for success and follow-through. One of the findings of the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) independent evaluation of the World Banks support to electricity access was based on the success of Rwanda’s electrification program. Rwanda was among one of the first countries to prepare and implement a nationwide electrification program combining grid and off-grid means, based on a systematic and least-cost plan aided by geographic information system mapping techniques that combine technical, economic, demographic, and demand and supply data. The plan (IP-2009) was funded by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) as a knowledge product that would be translated into operations and combined geographic, demographic, and technical parameters to scale up access in a least-cost and time-bound manner. It addressed equity and shared prosperity considerations through policies for keeping connections charges affordable for the poor and included connectivity to public facilities (schools, clinics, primary health centers, and administrative centers) so that developmental impacts could be spread out alongside the progress on household connections.44 142. The independent analysis that preceded the IP-2009 gave credibility to the Government’s program, reducing due diligence costs and increasing buy-in of national and international stakeholders.45 The analysis consisted of (a) institutional readiness for the access program, (b) analysis of different geo- spatial rollout approaches (including demand and affordability analysis), (c) funding requirements, (d) implementation options, and (e) sources of funding. In addition, analysis was carried out to identify the appropriate technical assistance and capacity-building requirements for effective implementation of EARP, allowing the development partners to make informed decisions regarding their contributions to the program. 143. The EASSDP was one of the first projects that piloted access expansion based on geospatial analysis as had been designed. The success of the project in delivering an impressive contribution to Rwanda’s electrification program was highlighted as best practice in the findings of the IEG’s independent evaluation of the World Bank’s engagement in electricity access. The document states, as one of the findings of the evaluation, that: “The Bank’s approach to the electricity sector in Rwanda and Kenya is demonstrating the usefulness of a sector-wide program of sustained engagement in enabling systematic and fast scale-up. In keeping with international good practice principles, the Bank Group has helped the governments to develop national electricity access rollout plans based on geospatial mapping and using least-cost combinations of coordinated grid and off-grid electrification. The geospatially determined implementation plan in turn anchors the sector level Investment Financing Prospectus for access scale-up 44 World Bank Group Support to Electricity Access, FY2000–2014: An Independent Evaluation by Independent Evaluation Group (IEG of the World Bank Group. 45 Rwanda syndicated financing of US$340 million for the first five years with contributions from the World Bank Group (US$78 million), other multilaterals and donors (US$185 million), and the Government and national electricity utility (US$77 million). A review of Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility data (a database that records private sector investments) shows that US$158 million was committed by the private sector for electricity projects in Rwanda during 2010–2011; the amount for the previous 10-year period was a mere US$1.6 million - World Bank Group Support to Electricity Access, FY2000–2014: An Independent Evaluation by Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) of the World Bank Group. Page 45 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) and facilitates the syndication of sufficient overall investment financing required for the access program on an ongoing basis. This approach, along with demonstrated government commitment, has led to very significant financing commitments from various development partners. After a long period of stagnation, the grid connected access levels have increased from 6 percent to 15 percent in Rwanda, and 23 percent to 30 percent in Kenya over the past four years.”46 144. Lesson 2: Least-cost planning is crucial for sustainability of project outcomes because affordability is always a barrier. The IP-2009 set forward a prioritization schedule based on cost-benefit analysis to try and consolidate the benefits of low project costs. The intention was to ensure that economic benefits accrue to Rwandan households as a direct consequence of the access program. The result of the exercise was a least-cost electrification plan for the country for 2009–2013. The IP-2009 also advised on alternatives to reduce the costs of MV expansion, which were taken up by the PIU. In the end, the cost per connection for the EARP was much less than the original estimates and targets, allowing for more customer connections without AF. Additionally, measures such as use of ready boards and load limiters and customers being allowed to pay for a connection enabled the project to connect customers who would otherwise have not been able to afford the connection. In addition, the analysis focused attention on identification and analysis of key risks, including(a) change in political support, (b) insufficient demand from consumers, (c) failure to achieve capital cost reductions or operating efficiencies, and (d) inability to mobilize funding from customer payments due to nonpayment. 145. Lesson 3: Strong Government ownership of projects, and projects that are aligned to national priorities are in a very strong position to succeed from the onset. The success of the EASSDP and the electricity access growth in Rwanda reinforces the theory that when governments own the access agenda and incorporate it in their growth strategies, the access agenda is most likely to be successful. The GoR participated in the design and preparation of the national program and geospatial plan, drew up clear Results Frameworks, and established M&E accountability under the overall institutional setup. 146. The World Bank CAS (2008–2012) was aligned to the GoR EDPRS1 goals. The EASSDP was designed aligned to the CAS, EDPRS1, and ESSP goals. Because the EASSDP supported the GoR to move closer to their energy sector targets, the oversight and support that the GoR gave the project helped secure the successes of the project. The experience from the EASSDP shows that when projects support government goals and objectives, the governments are more likely to take the lead in ensuring project success. This alignment proved critical for the EASSDP in achieving the objectives and contributing to the success of the GoR’s electrification program. 147. Lesson 4: A well-coordinated and inclusive sector contributes to program success. The success of the SWAp in Rwanda led to one of the IEG recommendations to replicate the concept while implementing future projects (World Bank Group Support to Electricity Access, FY2000–2014: An Independent Evaluation by Independent Evaluation Group [IEG] of the World Bank Group). The recommendation reads: “Move from a predominantly project-by-project approach—which lacks the scale and speed to achieve universal access by 2030 in low-access countries—to a far greater use of a sector- wide organizing framework and process for mainstreaming the sustained engagement needed for implementing rapid access scale-up. The scope and timing of the sector-wide frameworks and 46 World Bank Group Support to Electricity Access, FY2000–2014: An Independent Evaluation by Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) of the World Bank Group. Page 46 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) engagement plans should be led and coordinated by the government and take into account the starting sector context and readiness. The core principles and strategic drivers underlying the best practice programs should inform the new strategic framework and country plans, and the Bank Group’s operational engagement going forward. These are: systematic implementation of national electricity access, enabling sector policies and regulation, commercial viability of service providers, affordability of connections costs for the poor, and overarching government commitment and leadership.” 148. The first SWAps in the electricity sector in Rwanda showed better results than the transaction-by- transaction approach and, along with demonstrated government commitment, have so far led to significant financing commitments from various development partners and the private sector. The EARP is an example of how development partners can come together in a constructive manner in a postconflict country with nascent electrification rate. The SWAp ensures inclusiveness of sector stakeholders, who support the electrification program to success. Its structure in Rwanda assigns clear responsibilities to the different parties in the SWG, including government institutions, development partners, private sector, and other energy sector stakeholders. The SWAp structure was built upon existing institutions and the SWG, formed within the structure of the eSWAp, is led by MININFRA. This placed MININFRA in a position of interest and authority to ensure the success of the project rather than delegating all responsibility for success to the PIU. The strong accountability culture of the GoR was passed on from MININFRA to the utility, through the SWG, applying pressure to the PIU to deliver the successes of the project. The EASSDP was a beneficiary to the advantages of the SWAp concept and this contributed to the success of the project. The eSWAp secretariat coordinates the SWG through regular meetings, where program development and progress are reported through FLJSRs and BLJSRs. 149. The EASSDP was implemented under the EARP that was set up under the SWAp concept to focus on delivering the GoR EDPRS1 electricity access objectives. Although the SWAp concept was being used in other African countries in different sectors, there was no energy sector SWAp in existence. The GoR decided to pilot the use of the SWAp concept in energy (eSWAp) and delivered excellent results in meeting and surpassing government targets for electrification. 150. Lesson 5: Well-designed project performance indicators are crucial for accurate depiction of project success. As the analysis in previous sections indicates, the EASSDP reliability indicator fell short on two fronts: (a) it measured values out of the control of the project and (b) its calculation was not appropriate for the measurement required. Going by the results the indicator presented, the reliability of the Rwanda electricity network deteriorated drastically over the project lifetime. Results from the MTF survey carried out by ESMAP in 2016, and the 2017/2018 SAIDI/SAIFI results from the EUCL, however, show an improving reliability trend. Reliability is a very important indicator for electricity networks and it is always crucial to monitor the effects of projects on network reliability. The project preparation team understandably struggled with the formula to measure the effect of the project on network reliability, owing to the lack of measurement tools in the utility at the time. The project supervision team missed the opportunity to revise the calculation of the indicator or otherwise drop it completely. This led to the project falling drastically short on results for an indicator whose inputs it could not control. The results from the MTF survey and SAIDI/SAIFI also indicate that the calculations used to track the indicator most probably gave misleading results. 151. Lesson 6: Strong M&E and focus on results is important for project success and informing sector policy. Monitoring and tracking systems generated key data on the electricity sector in Rwanda as well as Page 47 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) on the progress of implementation of both the project and the program. This helped identify successful components and address bottlenecks quickly as the program was rolled out. The GoR’s focus on results was made easier by strong M&E being conducted under the EARP. All electricity access data are now centralized in one place; hence, the overall quality and availability of electricity access data in the energy sector has improved and will be very useful in future planning. 152. The M&E information informed sector policy decisions, including forward-looking annual targets and revision of the countries connection policy. During BLJSRs, the M&E information was used to check the average quarterly connections and verify the status of running contracts. This information fed into the Government’s forward-looking targets for the next financial year. 153. Additionally, the M&E information informed the decision of the sector to revise the connection policy to allow for poorer households to get connected as the grid expanded. Data showed that many households within the 5 km radius of the MV backbone were not getting connected because they could not afford the up-front advance connection fees required. The Government used this information to revise the connection policy. Households that were not able to pay up-front advance charges for an electricity connection would be able, in accordance with the revised policy, to connect without any advance payment and pay the full connection fees over time. Implementation of this decision resulted in the PIU scaling up the rate of household connections. 154. Lesson 7: Staffing of PIU, at all times, with the right quality and quantity of resources is very important for project success. The EARP faced, at the onset, a major challenge due to the limited pool of suitably qualified professionals available. The PIU staff also had limited exposure in managing donor funds. These factors contributed to the slow start-up of the EASSDP. Ensuring continuity of appropriate staff on the job also contributed to project success. The EARP suffered a high level of turnover of staff. This, combined with the difficulty of finding the appropriate skills locally, contributed to project delays. The EASSDP suffered delays owing to staff turnover of the EARP. It is important that management teams explore ways to retain staff with the right skills in the program. 155. At the PIU management level, it is always important to have a clear understanding of the World Bank rules to give support to the implementation staff and save time during project implementation. For example, the EASSDP suffered from slow compensation payments for PAPs owing to factors beyond the control of the PIU implementation staff. In such cases, it is important that when issues are elevated to the PIU management level, the management staff understand the importance of the factors to an extent that they can further elevate the issues to the level at which action can be taken. 156. Lesson 8: Strong implementation oversight by the World Bank teams is important for timely delivery of projects. When supervision teams keep a strong oversight through the project lifetime, the project is more likely to meet its objectives. Supervision of the EASSDP was kept strong through the project lifetime, ensuring early identification of problems and giving appropriate guidance to the PIU. Support to the EASSDP was crucial given that the fund was the first and the largest single project under the EARP, and its success would define the path of the EARP. Continuous solid advice in the fields of engineering, procurement, finance, and social and environmental safeguards compliance, among others, proved crucial to delivering the great successes that the project registered, including surpassing most of the targets set, and reaching 100 percent disbursement rate by the end of the project. Page 48 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project (P111567) 157. Early identification of bottlenecks ensured that project restructuring always supported delivery of the PDOs on time. Implementation supervision included consideration and flexibility to include implications on evolving government priorities while restructuring the project. . .. Page 49 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Improve access of electricity services for households Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion People provided with new or Number 0.00 651200.00 651200.00 1268284.00 improved electricity service 29-Apr-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 People provided with access Number 0.00 651200.00 651200.00 1268284.00 to electricity by hhold connections-Grid 29-Apr-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): EASSDP exceeded the household connections target by 86.3% (275,714 connections against target of 148,000 connections). Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Households connected to Number 110000.00 768000.00 768000.00 810923.00 electricity under the Government Program EARP 09-Dec-2009 23-May-2016 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Page 50 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) Household Connections Number 0.00 148000.00 148000.00 275714.00 from the Project 09-Dec-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): EARP exceeded the household connections target by 5.6% (810,923 connections against target of 768,000 connections). Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Project Beneficiaries Number 0.00 651200.00 651200.00 1268284.00 29-Apr-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Of which female Number 0.00 333526.00 333526.00 659508.00 (beneficiaries) 29-Apr-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Nov-2017 30-Mar-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): EASSDP exceeded the project beneficiaries target by 86.3%. However, the project fell short by (i) health centers target by 7.9%; (ii) schools target by 3.5%; and sector administrative buildings target by 5.5% shortfall. The main reason for this is that there was lack of sufficient backbone infrastructure to reach all public institutions. The basic cause of this lack of backbone infrastructure was lack of sufficient funding for the program. Objective/Outcome: Improve access of electricity services for priority public institutions Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of Community Percentage 32.70 93.33 93.33 87.93 electricity connections under the project (Energy Core ind) 29-Apr-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 28-Feb-2018 Page 51 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) Schools Percentage 21.00 80.00 80.00 77.20 29-Apr-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Administrative Community Percentage 38.70 100.00 100.00 94.50 Centers 09-Dec-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Health Centers/Hospitals Percentage 38.40 100.00 100.00 92.10 09-Dec-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): The result was short by 5.75% of target. This is owing to lack of 100% medium voltage infrastructure in the country. The basic cause of this lack of backbone infrastructure was lack of sufficient funding for the program. Objective/Outcome: Improve reliability of electricity services Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Monthly interruptions per km Percentage 0.00 -35.00 -35.00 61.00 of MV line (% reduction of rolling average ) 09-Dec-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): The result was 96% off target. The objective failed to insulate the effects of the EARP implementation works from other activities being carried out on the electricity network. Objective/Outcome: Improve cost effectiveness of electricity services Page 52 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Average cost per connection Percentage 1000.00 9.00 9.00 -62.28 [Connection Cost Index (CCI)] 09-Dec-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): This target was overachieved by 62.28%. Through competitive procurement processes, the EPC cost of delivering projects reduced. The project also reduced costs of MV backbone structure by using concrete poles and wooden poles instead of steel lattice poles; and investigated using single wire earth return (SWER) technology on some of the MV lines. This, combined with densification as project life grew helped tremendously reduce the cost per connection. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Component A Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Transmission and Kilometers 1800.00 4200.00 4200.00 7135.92 distribution lines (KM) constructed or rehabilitated 29-Apr-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 under the project. (Energy Core Ind) Comments (achievements against targets): This indicator was overachieved by 70%. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 53 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) Transformers Number 0.00 985.00 985.00 850.00 rehabilitated/Replaced 01-Dec-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): There was a shortfall of 13.7% for this indicator. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Improved customer Text n/a Yes Yes Yes complaint and resolution system in place and 29-Apr-2014 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 functioning Comments (achievements against targets): Component: Component B Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion New Customers Using Energy Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Efficient Light Bulbs (CFLs) 01-Dec-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): It is government policy for importation of bulbs to be CFL's. Component: Component C Page 54 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Joint Annual Sector Yes/No N Y Y Y Performance Report approved by SWG 01-Dec-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Spatial grid rollout Yes/No Y Y Y Y investment plan updated by EWSA and Approved by the 01-Dec-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 SWG Quarterly monitoring Yes/No N Y Y Y progress reports approved by SWG 01-Dec-2009 18-Dec-2012 30-Mar-2018 30-Mar-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 55 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) A. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome 1: Improve Access of Electricity Services for Households 1. People provided with new or improved electricity service 2. People provided with access to electricity by household connections – grid Outcome Indicators 3. Households connected to electricity under the government program – EARP 4. Household connections from the project 1. Transmission and Distribution lines (km) constructed or rehabilitated under the project 2. Joint annual sector performance report approved by SWG Intermediate Results Indicators 3. Spatial grid rollout investment plan updated by EWSA and approved by the SWG 4. Quarterly monitoring progress reports approved by the SWG 1. People provided with new or improved electricity service: 1,268,284 2. People provided with access to electricity by household connections – grid: 1,268,284 3. Households connected to electricity under the government program – EARP: 810,923 Key Outputs by Component 4. Household connections from the project: 275,714 (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 5. Transmission & Distribution lines constructed/rehabilitated under the project: 7,135,92km 6. Joint annual sector performance report approved by SWG: Yes 7. Spatial grid rollout investment plan updated by EWSA and approved by the SWG: Yes 8. Quarterly monitoring progress reports approved by the SWG: Yes Objective/Outcome 2: Improve Access of Electricity Services for Priority Public Institutions 1. Percentage number of community electricity connections under the project 2. Percentage number of Schools connections Outcome Indicators 3. Percentage number of Administrative connections 4. Percentage number of health centers/hospitals 1. Transmission and Distribution lines (km) constructed or rehabilitated under the project Intermediate Results Indicators 2. Joint annual sector performance report approved by SWG Page 56 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) 3. Spatial grid rollout investment plan updated by EWSA and approved by the SWG 4. Quarterly monitoring progress reports approved by the SWG 1. People provided with new or improved electricity service: 1,268,284 2. People provided with access to electricity by household connections – grid: 1,268,284 3. Households connected to electricity under the government program – EARP: 810,923 Key Outputs by Component 4. Household connections from the project: 275,714 (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) 5. Transmission & Distribution lines constructed/rehabilitated under the project: 7,135,92km 6. Joint annual sector performance report approved by SWG: Yes 7. Spatial grid rollout investment plan updated by EWSA and approved by the SWG: Yes 8. Quarterly monitoring progress reports approved by the SWG: Yes Objective/Outcome 3: Improve Reliability of Electricity Services Outcome Indicators 1. Monthly interruptions per km of MV line (% reduction of rolling average) 1. Transformers rehabilitated/replaced Intermediate Results Indicators 2. Improved customer complaint and resolution system in place and functioning 1. Monthly interruptions per km of MV line (% reduction of rolling average): 61% increase Key Outputs by Component 2. Transformers rehabilitated/replaced: 850 (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 3) 3. Improved customer complaint and resolution system in place and functioning: Yes Objective/Outcome 4: Improve Cost Effectiveness of Electricity Services 1. Average cost per connection [Connection Cost Index (CCI)] Outcome Indicators 2. Percentage of new customers using energy efficient bulbs (CFL’s) Intermediate Results Indicators Key Outputs by Component 1. Average cost per connection [Connection Cost Index (CCI)]: 62.28% reduction (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 4) 2. Percentage of new customers using energy efficient bulbs (CFL’s): 100% Page 57 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION • TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Supervision/ICR Yadviga Viktorivna Semikolenova, Norah Kipwola Task Team Leader(s) Elisa Portale Team Member Sofia De Abreu Ferreira Team Member Mulugeta Dinka Team Member Enagnon Ernest Eric Adda Team Member Emmanuel Muligirwa Team Member George Bob Nkulanga Team Member Lara Born Team Member Antoinette Kamanzi Team Member Sandra M. Kuwaza Team Member Sylvie Ingabire Team Member Marie Louise Felicite Soue Team Member Theogene Habakubaho Team Member Page 58 B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY09 19.442 131,695.74 FY10 3.650 12,395.11 Total 23.09 144,090.85 Supervision/ICR FY10 8.075 68,844.07 FY11 15.045 73,415.67 FY12 15.319 67,537.53 FY13 17.779 108,533.57 FY14 28.329 161,951.13 FY15 29.375 185,590.89 FY16 28.434 137,508.41 FY17 24.318 117,999.50 FY18 24.938 122,271.40 FY19 5.722 17,591.44 Total 197.33 1,061,243.61 Page 59 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Actual at Project Percentage of Components Approval Closing (US$, Approval (US$, (US$, millions) millions) millions) Component A: National Grid 113.17 105.190 92.9 Rollout Component B: Green 10.20 0.028 0.3 Connections Component C: Technical Assistance, Capacity 16.80 25.860 154.0 Strengthening, and Implementation Support Total 140.17 131.080 93.5 Page 60 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS 1. The project was approved in October 2009 and the AF was agreed in February 2013. Table 4.1 presents a summary of the economic analyses prepared at each of these stages and the economic analysis prepared after completion for this ICR report. They are also explained in more detail in the following paragraphs. Table 4.1. Summary of Results Economic Analysis Targeted ENPV Financing to Fund Prepared During Household EIRR (US$, Discount Electrification Connections (%) millions) Rate During Appraisal 100,000 40 273 12 2009–2013 Restructuring (AF) 48,000 59 75 10 2013–2016 ICR 273,637 55 112 10 2009–2017 Analysis at Appraisal 2. The economic analysis prepared at appraisal assessed the benefits of the grid portion of the NEAP. The proposed financing was expected to fund about 100,000 grid connections during a five- year period (2009–2013). The ENPV was estimated to be US$273 million at a discount rate of 12 percent and the EIRR of the project was 40 percent.47 3. The economic benefits were derived from the consumer surplus from electricity consumption estimated for newly connecting households. The consumer surplus was estimated at US$0.46 per kWh for households consuming less than 20 kWh per month and US$0.26 per kWh for households consuming above 20 kWh per month. For new commercial customers, the analysis used a consumer surplus of US$0.27 per kWh, derived from the cost of backup self-generation.48 Analysis at AF 4. In 2013, the World Bank approved US$60 million of AF for the project. The AF supported the connection of an additional 48,000 households to the electricity grid as part of the second phase of the EARP. The EIRR estimated at this stage was 59 percent and the ENPV at a discount rate of 10 percent was US$75 million. 5. The target of Phase 2 was to increase the national access rate to at least 35 percent by 2017, from 13 percent in 2012. The AF was also designed to support scaling up of ‘green connections’ associated with energy efficiency solutions, including uptake of solar products such as SWHs and CFLs. The economic benefits estimated during the AF were derived from (a) benefits from new household connections, (b) savings for households derived from the use of CFLs, and (c) savings from installing SWHs in public and commercial buildings.49 47 The Excel model used to calculate the economic analysis during appraisal was not available for this ICR. Thus, the economic analysis of this ICR was prepared using various sources as well as the information available from the two existing economic analyses (the one prepared for appraisal and for the AF). 48 Annex 9: Economic and Financial Analysis. EASSDP PAD (P111567). World Bank. 49 The cost of connection was estimated at US$1,100; the savings derived from CFLs were estimated at 131 kWh per household per year; the savings derived from SWHs at 3,240 kWh per building per year; and the tariff at which the savings was valued was estimated at RWF 140 per kWh (equivalent to US$0.23 per kWh). Every household was estimated to save 60 watts (15 watts of CFLs compared to 75 watts of incandescent lamps) three CFLs. The analysis also assumed that each CFL is used for six hours per day and is operational for three years. Page 61 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) Analysis at Completion 6. The economic analysis at completion estimated an EIRR of 55 percent and the NPV, at a discount rate of 10 percent, at US$112 million. The analysis identified that the main benefits of the project derived from (a) increased electrification (households and institutions), (b) savings in electricity connection costs, and (c) savings from green connections (increased use of CFLs and SWHs). 7. Increased electrification. New connections were targeted to both households and priority public institutions (health centers, schools, and sector administration offices). The household connection indicator was considerably surpassed at project closure: the connection target was exceeded by 85 percent (273,637 connections compared to 148,000). To calculate the economic benefit of electrification, this analysis quantifies the new customers’ consumer surplus—following the approach taken at appraisal. Households were divided between those that consume 11 kWh per month (two-thirds of the total; ‘low consumption households’) and those that consume 20 kWh per month (one-third of the total; ‘high consumption households’).50 Figure 4.1. Connections under the EASSDP 250,000 AF approved 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Low cosumption HHs High cosumption HHs 8. The consumption figures were used to estimate the first-year consumption level of each new connected household. In addition, household consumption was assumed to increase at an annual rate of 4.5 percent (the average gross domestic product per capita growth during 2009–2016) for eight years and then remains constant. The cumulated number of new connections, by household type, is shown in figure 4.1. The analysis also assumes a consumer surplus US$0.46 per kWh for households consuming 11 kWh per month and US$0.26 per kWh for households consuming 20 kWh per month, as assumed during appraisal. 9. The project also targeted the connection of 80 percent of health centers in the country, 100 percent of schools, and 100 percent of sector administration offices. These targets were not achieved, 50“On average the connected households surveyed consume 11 kWh per month […] The official clien t database from REG specifies that more than 2/3 of households connected between October 2009 and October 2011 (including urban and rural households) consume less than 20 kWh/month and more than half use less than 15 kWh/month.” Lenz, Luciane, Anicet Munyehirwe, Jörg Peters, and Maximiliane Sievert. 2017. “Does Large-scale Infrastructure Investment Alleviate Poverty? Impacts of Rwanda’s Electricity Access Rollout Program.” World Development 89: 88–110. Page 62 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) though the shortfall was relatively small. By project closure, 92.1 percent of health centers, 77.2 percent of schools, and 94.5 percent of sector administration buildings had been connected. Nevertheless, the increase in connections of public institutions still signified economic benefits for Rwanda. A total of 1,749 schools, 432 sector administration buildings, and 497 health centers were connected by the project. This analysis valued the benefits as the average electricity consumption per institution type, times the consumer surplus of each institution (estimated at US$0.27 per kWh). The average capacity system of each institution was assumed as follows: 3.6 kW for schools, 3 kW for sector administration buildings, and 1.2 kW for health centers.51 10. Savings in electricity connection costs. The baseline average cost per connection was US$1,000. However, the average connection costs during implementation were considerably lower, reaching US$411 at the time of project closure. Reductions were achieved due to competitive procurement processes, lower construction costs of poles, and electricity densification as the project evolved. The savings in connection costs were calculated by the difference between the baseline value (US$1,000) and the year’s actual average cost per connection, times the number of new connections during each year. 11. Savings from green connections. These savings are twofold, savings derived from the use of (a) efficient CFLs (131 kWh per household per year) and (b) SWHs (3,240 kWh per building per year).52 All the connected households had received CFLs and 2,837 SWHs had been delivered until 2016 (after that the component was discontinued).53 The benefits were calculated as the annual savings times the number of connections that used CFLs and SWHs delivered.54 12. Project costs. The electricity connections to households, schools, health centers, and administration centers; the cost of SWHs; and the cost of CFL bulbs were included as a part of the project. Thus, the costs included in the economic analysis are equal to the annual project disbursements. Figure 4.2 shows the cash flow of the economic analysis during the project period. Cash flows are negative and/or lower during the first years and later stabilize during the last years of the period of analysis (years when the households and public institutions are still benefitting from the increased electrification, but costs have already been accrued).55 The annual EIRR becomes positive during the seventh year of the analysis (FY2017). Before that, the annual EIRR is always negative though the value oscillates, as the positive net cash flows in FY2013 results in a less negative EIRR that year (compared to the EIRR in FY2014 and FY2015). 13. Project efficiency. The project exceeded the household connection indicator by 85 percent: 273,637 connections were completed by project closure, compared to 148,000 planned. This was mainly due to benefits of economies of scale—as costs decrease, the larger the number of connections. At the same time, scaling up electrification implied considerable reductions in connection costs. The baseline connection cost of the project was estimated at US$1,000 and updated during implementation to reach US$1,090 by project closure. Instead, the costs per connection decreased every year and reached a low of US$411 by project closure, around 60 percent lower than 51 According to World Bank calculations. 52 The annual electricity consumptions savings are those used in the economic analysis prepared when the AF was provided. In the case of the CFLs, the analysis assumes that each household receives three CFLs and uses them for six hours per day each year. The figures are estimated assuming a lifetime of three years, for both the CFLs and SWHs. 53 CFLss and SWHs were delivered and funded by the EASDDP until 2016, because during project restructuring in May 2016, the Green Connections component was discontinued (and the undisbursed funds were reallocated to the electrification component). Therefore, the economic analysis incorporates the benefits from the 2,837 SWHs reported and CFLs delivered to the new connected households until May 2016. 54 ISRs provided information on the number of households that obtained CFLs and number of SWHs installed. 55 The positive cash flow observed in FY2013 was due to a relatively lower disbursement level during that year. Page 63 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) the expected cost. In addition, a reallocation of funds to Component A (National Grid Rollout) may have also helped achieved such positive results in electrification. In 2016, Component B (Green Connections) was discontinued and US$8.2 million was reallocated to Component A for the procurement of goods (transformers, concrete poles, energy meters, cables, conductors, and accessories). Figure 4.2. Cash Flow 70 60 50 40 Million US$ 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 14. Sensitivity analysis. A sensitivity analysis has tested the robustness of the results to changes in the values of the two main assumptions: (a) the consumer surplus of households and (b) the consumer surplus of public institutions (schools, health centers, and sector administration offices). 15. The first sensitivity assessed the impact of reducing the consumer surplus by half (from US$0.46 per kWh to US$0.23 per kWh for low consumption households and from US$0.26 per kWh to US$0.13 per kWh for high consumption households). The second analyzed the impact of eliminating consumer surplus of public institutions (assuming the consumer surplus as US$0.00 per kWh instead of US$0.27 per kWh). The results are shown in the table 4.2. The changes in the EIRR are considerable, but the results remain positive under both scenarios. Table 4.2. Sensitivity Analysis Original Value Value of Sensitivity Sensitivity EIRR ENPV EIRR ENPV (%) (US$, (%) (US$, millions) millions) Household’s consumer surplus halved 55 112 33 60 Eliminating consumer surplus of public 55 112 47 87 institutions Page 64 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION LIMITED IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT for RWANDA ELECTRICITY ACCESS SCALE-UP AND SECTOR-WIDE APPROACH (SWAP) DEVELOPMENT PROJECT -EASSDP ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AfDB African Development Bank EADSSDP Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector-wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project EARP Electricity Access Rollout Program EDPRS Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework EU European Union EWA Electricity and Water Authority GoR Government of Rwanda EC European Commission EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EPC Engineering, Procurement & Construction ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment Page 65 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 67 2. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE AND KEY INDICATORS ...................................... 68 3. ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE, DESIGN, IMPLEMENTATION, AND OPERATIONAL EXPERIENCE.................................................................................................................... 68 3.2 Assessment of the Project Design and Implementation .................................................. 72 3.3. Lessons learned ........................................................................................................... 73 4. EVALUATION OF OWN PERFORMANCE DURING PREPARATION AND IMPLEMENTATION ......................................................................................................... 75 4.1 Government Performance – Overall Assessment -Satisfactory ................................. 75 4.2. Implementing Agency – Overall Assessment -Satisfactory ............................................. 75 5. EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE WORLD BANK, CO-FINANCIERS, AND OTHER PARTNERS DURING PROJECT PREPARATION AND IMPLEMENTATION .................. 76 5.1. World Bank – Quality at entry .................................................................................. 76 5.2 World Bank – During Implementation ...................................................................... 77 5.3. Other Partners ............................................................................................................. 78 6. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED ARRANGEMENTS FOR FUTURE COOPERATION. ............ 78 6.1 Future arrangements .................................................................................................... 78 6.2 Risk to development outcome ....................................................................................... 78 7. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................... 79 8. RECOMMENDATION ................................................................................................ 79 RESULTS FRAMEWORK AS OF MARCH 30TH, 2018 ............................................................ 82 LIST OF EPC CONTRACTS ................................................................................................. 85 ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS ............................................................................. 87 Page 66 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) 1. Introduction This report elaborates on the scope and performance of the Electricity Access Scale up and Sector Wide Approach Development Project (EASSDP) (“the Project”). The Project was implemented using credit proceeds from Financing Agreements between the Government of Rwanda and two development partners: the World Bank and OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID)as summarized in Table -1. Table-1; Summary of Funding Source of funds Loan ID Amount in USD IDA-International Development Association (IDA) IDA 46510 70 000 000 IDA-International Development Association (IDA) IDA 51930 60 000 000 OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) OFID (1293P) 10 000 000 OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) OFID (1483) 12 000 000 Total 152 000 000 The Project Closing dates were revised to in tandem with the revised dates for loans closing dates of 30th March and 30th June 2018 for the World Bank funds and OFID funds respectively. This report covers exclusively the project performance with respect to the World Bank Funds of the EASSDP and key project information is summarized in Table -2. Table 2: Basic Project Information Project description EADSSDP Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector-Wide Approach (SWAP) Development Project Project Objective To Improve access to reliable and cost-effective electricity services for households and priority public institutions Components: (I) National Grid Rollout (II) Green Connections (II) Technical Assistance, Capacity Strengthening, and Implementation Support. Outputs 275,714 households connected Donor and Committed Amount 130 Million US$ Timeframe Start date: 6/9/2010 Closing date: 31/03/2018 Initial date: 30/06/2016 First extension date:30/06/2017 2nd extension date: 30/11/2017 3rd extension date: 30/03/2018 Geographical operation areas All Districts in Rwanda (Countrywide) (District) Co-Financiers and Other OFID External Partners: An Original Financing Agreement of the EASSDP (SDR 45 Million/US$70 Million) was signed on 8th February 2010 between the Republic of Rwanda (“Recipient”) and the International Development Association (“Association”) with RECO as the “Implementing Entity”. This Agreement was amended and restated on 6th March 2013 to provide additional financing to a tune of SDR 39Million/US$ 60Million to the Project. During the execution of this project, the energy sector in Rwanda has Page 67 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) undergone some major reforms, the bulk of which were supported by this Project. As such the Project Agreement was amended again to close June 30, 2016 and the final extension to March 30, 2018 to allow a proper completion of all the ongoing Project activities. In this last two extensions, the “Implementing Entity” had changed to Energy Utility Corporation Limited (EUCL) a successor Company to RECO and EWSA. The project was proposed to directly respond to one of the three flagship programs of the Government of Rwanda, the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS 2008-2012 and later 2013-2018), “Economic transformation to create employment and generate exports”. Specifically, the project responded to the key priority within this flagship theme of rapidly expanding access to electricity services while also improving the quality of, and lowering the cost of, economic infrastructure, including power. The project was also aligned with one of the key targets of the GoR’s long-term development strategy, the Vision 2020, which targeted a 35 percent increase in access to electricity by households by 2020. Moreover, the project was explicitly identified in the Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for Rwanda (2009-2012), which focused the Bank’s engagement in support of Rwanda’s five-year, medium-term development framework (EDPRS). In addition, the project would provide effective means to advance implementation of the Government-led, sector-wide approach and then ongoing reforms in the electricity sector. This project was a key vehicle in delivering critical studies and analyses during the Reform of the sector. 2. Project Development Objective and Key Indicators The Project Development Objective (PDO) was to improve access to reliable and cost-effective electricity services for households and priority public institutions. The following are the key Project principal outcome indicators and they focused on overall increase in connectivity as well as customer service quality improvements, and they were aligned with the GoR’s core indicators in the EDPRS as well as the World Bank Africa Action Plan: i) Access: • Households connected to electricity (number) (CORE RMS) • Public institutions connected (percentage) (disaggregated by type) ii) Quality: • Rolling average of monthly service interruptions per km of MV line iii) Cost-effectiveness: • Average cost per connection [Connection Cost Index (CCI)] The project was also to support efforts to increase productive use of electricity in the targeted areas to stimulate economic growth and job creation and overall sector sustainability. 3. Assessment of Objective, Design, Implementation, and Operational Experience 3.1 Assessment of Outcome against the Objective As mentioned above, the Project’s Development Objective was to increase access to reliable and cost- effective electricity services for households and priority public institutions. Page 68 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) The table below shows achievement per indicator: Indicator Baseline Value Original Target Actual Value Achieved Values (from the at Completion of the PAD) Project Indicator 1 - Access Households connected to electricity (number) (CORE RMS) Value (quantitative) 0 148,000 275,714 Date achieved 2008 31/12/2016 30/03/2018 Comments (incl. % 186.29% of the Project targeted connections were achieved and the overall access achievement) rate for grid connections increased to 33.4% by end March 2018. Indicator 2 - Access Public institutions connected (percentage) (disaggregated by type) Value (quantitative or qualitative) 38.40% 100% 92.1% Health Centers Schools 21% 80% 77.2% Administrative 38.70% 100% 94.5% Office Date achieved 2008 31/12/2016 30/03/2018 Comments (incl. % The target for connecting health centers was surpassed at 115%, while the target achievement) for connecting schools was the least achieved with a shortage of 22.8%. This shortage mainly resulted from the restructuring of the school system with the introduction of 9 and 12-year education schools and pre-primary schools which are more decentralized. The target for connecting administrative offices was achieved at only 94.5% for sector offices because there are sectors in which the transmission backbone has not yet reached. The Program also connected health posts at 74% and hospitals at 100% as well as other health facilities like pharmacies and clinics. The program further connected the Cell Offices which provide primary services to the community members and their connection rate is at 58%. Indicator 3 - Quality Rolling average of monthly service interruptions per km of MV line Value (quantitative -64% (0.102299) -based 0.06338 (based on 270 or qualitative) on 730 interruptions/month and -35% interruptions/month and 4,260 km MV line) 7,135.92km MV line) Date achieved 2008 31/12/2016 30/03/2018 Comments The interruption frequency is attributed to a few factors such as systems faults, switching related to the ongoing works and maintenance. Indicator 4 - Cost- Average cost per connection [Connection Cost Index (CCI)] effectiveness Value (quantitative or qualitative) US$1,019 -9% -59.7 % (US$ 411.12) Date achieved 2008 31/12/2016 30/03/2018 Comments Average cost per connection has progressively reduced and continues to reduce this has partly been the reason underlying the project performance exceeding the original connection targets within the same fund driven by use of more cost effective materials, competitive procurement and better use of internal resources. A detailed assessment of the overall performance will be conducted by an external consultant. In addition to the PDO, it is worth mentioning that the project had three components: (i) grid rollout; Page 69 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) (ii) green connections; and (iii) technical assistance, capacity strengthening, and implementation support. Below is the assessment of implementation of each component; details of achievements registered in the different intermediate outcome indicators are found in the results framework on Annex 2. i) National Grid Rollout The component of National Grid Rollout consisted of making investments initially focusing on grid intensification in urban areas with large potential households that could be connected at relatively lower cost per connection and gradually moving out to peri-urban and high-density rural green-field areas close to the existing grid. To this end, the project supported the Implementing Entity to procure the required poles, conductors, cables, transformers, meters, and other connection hardware as well as installation services, using both local and international contracting companies, to intensify the grid density and make extensions to previously unconnected areas with major clusters of potential demand. In addition to the grid extensions and new customer connections countrywide of more than 275,000, the main EPC contracts funded by IDA under EASSDP. These EPC contractors while largely being international companies, typically operate through Local Sub-contractors this has increased Private Sector participation in the sector whilst at the same time growing national capacity to participate in future projects and ongoing outsourced maintenance. The EPCs model was deployed in the various Districts including the following: i) EPC Gicumbi, implemented by Gammon India in the Districts of Burera and Gicumbi; ii) EPC Janja, implemented by Joh Achelis & Johne GembH in the Districts of Musanze, Gakenke & Nyabihu; iii) EPC South, implemented by National Contracting Company (NCC) in Muhanga, Ruhango and Kamonyi Districts; iv) EPC Muhanga & Ruhango, implemented by Overseas Infrastructure Alliance in Muhanga Ruhango Districts; v) EPC Gikomero, implemented by Overseas Infrastructure Alliance in Gasabo District; vi) EPC Ngororero, implemented by Overseas Infrastructure Alliance in Ngororero District; vii) EPC North, which was under implementation by Spencon Services in the Districts of Musanze, Gakenke & Burera, but stopped after the latter ran bankrupt and the contract was terminated will be implemented under the new WB project, RESSP. More details on these EPC contracts are provided in Annex 3. In addition to the above, the Project supported the Implementing Entity to strengthen the existing grid for improved operational capacity and service delivery. This was mainly done through the Projects of Construction of a 36km 110kV Rukarara – Kilinda Transmission line by Jyoti Structures Limited and Construction of Rukarara Step-Up 110/30kV Substation by Consolidated Power Project to evacuate power from Rukarara Hydropower Plant which initially was connected to an inordinately long distribution line thus causing frequent power outages in the Southern region. These two components however, were funded by OFID. Page 70 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) - Productive Users The Project was also to support efforts to increase productive use of electricity in the targeted areas. Productive users connected by the Project include milk collection centers, water pumping stations, water irrigations schemes, rural market centers and other clusters of commercial activities, such as coffee-washing stations, tea plantations and sites for Agro-processing. The Electricity Access Rollout Program has achieved connection of the following productive use areas including this Project contribution. Productive users Number connected Comment Milk Collection Centres 68 The total productive users connected Artisan center 17 are 1,156 with a high potential for a Irrigation Site 23 multiplier effect. Markets 354 Under REG’s Strategic Plan, all Water Pumping Stations 91 productive use areas will be Telecom Towers 270 connected to electricity supply Coffee washing Stations 109 through on-grid or off-grid, by 2022. Factories/Industries 224 Total 1,156 Therefore, the overall performance of the National Grid Connection component has been assessed as - Highly Satisfactory. ii) Green Connections Under this Component, the project was to finance a range of activities to improve energy efficiency and affordability for the consumers and reduce the need for additional generation resources through such activities as: efficient lighting using energy-efficient CFLs (compact fluorescent lights), energy efficiency using solar water heaters, providing low cost ready boards to poor households to reduce the need for internal wiring and connection of productive users. During implementation, the following was achieved: - Solutions adapted for low income households The Project was to support initiatives to buy down connection costs further for the low-income households by providing low cost ready boards to poor households to reduce the need for internal wiring. A total of 60,000 ready boards were procured and distributed to new customers who could otherwise not afford other alternative for connections - Efficient lighting This was intended to improve affordability and reduce impact new household load on supply capacity, new customers received a package of energy-efficient CFLs (compact fluorescent lights) at the time of new meter installations. However, this component was never implemented by the Project because the Utility had a similar running scheme in which a total of 800,000 CFLs had been procured and distributed to customers. Of these, 600,000 CFLs were distributed during the Project’s lifetime between 2010 and 2014. - Energy efficiency The Project was to support an incentive scheme to promote the use of solar water heaters sold Page 71 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) through private dealers by providing partial subsidies for households and a credit scheme to cover part of the remaining investment cost. However, through the Level 2-restructuring of the Project approved on 25th May 2016, the funds meant for solar water heaters were reallocated towards Component A – National Grid Rollout because the limited Project’s remaining time, given that the 2 years, would not have been sufficient to permit full implementation of the activities. The latter were implemented through funds provided by the Nordic Development Fund which was earlier envisioned to co-finance with IDA on the Solar Water Heater Program. Therefore, the Overall Assessment of Green Connections was Satisfactory- as some of the initiatives had to be substituted due to the need to optimize time and increase Impact and relevance. iii) Technical Assistance, Capacity Strengthening, and Implementation Support This component’s activities supported Project implementation, the setup of the Energy Sector-wide Approach Project (eSWAp) framework, institutional development especially during the restructuring of the former EWSA into two utility companies, REG for energy and WASAC for water, as well as the development of sector policies and strategies. The component supported several key assessments among which are: (a) The Electricity Network Planning & Design, commonly referred to as the “SOFRECO Report”, which was a key tool in the implementation of the Government Seven Year Program (2012 – 2018) that targeted to increase the number of households with access to electricity to 70% by 2018. (b) The EWSA Financial Performance Review and Outlook; (c) A study to establish and advise on the legal framework for new companies to replace EWSA; (d) A study to undertake the Energy Sector Functional and Organizational restructuring of EWSA; (e) A Study on Asset Verification and Separation between the two EWSA successor entities (f) A study to undertake scoping for Management Information System (MIS); (g) The review of proposed strengthening projects for the EWSA HV and MV Networks; (h) The Medium-Term Generation and Financial Sustainability Plan for Rwanda’s Power Sector; (i) The Review of the Bidding Documents and assistance in procurement of the Integrated Information Management System. (j) Capacity building for Project staff and Staff of the Implementing Entity in various areas of specialization including Finance, Project Management, Procurement, Environmental and Social Safeguards and Construction Management. Therefore, the Overall Assessment of Technical Assistance, Capacity Development and Implementation Support was Highly Satisfactory based on the Institutional Capacity that has been developed and Policy and Institutional Framework that has been established from EWSA to the Successor Companies based on the key studies undertaken through the Project 3.2 Assessment of the Project Design and Implementation Page 72 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) The Project was appraised and implemented following recommendations from the “Access Program Investment Prospectus (the “Prospectus”) which was developed in 2009 and presented a five-year plan for extending electricity access that would fed into the achievement of Rwanda’s EDPRS I Targets; the Prospectus integrated technical, financing and implementation planning components of the Access Program. In addition to the Prospectus, the SOFRECO Report, developed in 2013, guided implementation further by providing a spatial mapping that would help GoR achieve, in addition to the EDPRS I targets, the Seven-year Government Plan of increasing access to electricity to 70% of the households and targeting of productive use areas including rural market centers and other clusters of commercial activities. In addition to the prioritization of projects through lots, the Report also took into consideration the use of low cost technologies and provided the “Design Standards and Guidelines for EARP Rural Electrification Projects”. During implementation, the Project allowed for a mixture of implementation strategies including the use of EPC contractors as well as construction works implemented by in-house technical teams of the Implementing Entity. This approach proved to be cost effective and accelerated access to higher numbers of connections due to the increased speed in implementation and mitigating on the long procurement cycles especially encountered in the EPC contracting model. As mentioned earlier in the introductory section of this report, the Project’s objective, design, and implementation were fully consistent with the country’s development priorities and with country and sectoral assistance strategies. Due to the effective project Design and correct alignment with the broader National Strategy (EDPRS I & II), the Project attracted Additional funds from IDA (the second tranche of US$ 60Million) and the OFID funds to advance the Project Objectives. On the other hand, there were some significant challenges especially in procurement processes, this resulted in two project extensions to finalize all the project activities within the project timelines. Looking forward this is an area that will require more streamlining for future projects. 3.3. Lessons learned This Project has provided numerous lessons for Rwanda and could probably be applied elsewhere in the IDA funded projects to support accelerated realization of development objectives. Amongst the many the following have been specifically noted. (a) Government Commitment and Support; - this has been a key success factor of the Project, the GoR demonstrated commitment from the highest level throughout. This was observed right from the inception of the Electricity Access Program through to the funds mobilization, creation of the Energy Sector-wide Approach project (eSWAp) and actual implementation of the different access projects. (b) Complimentary Government Policies; - during implementation exemplified by the Government initiatives for resettling people in organized and clustered communities as opposed to scattered homesteads, this had the impact of substantially reducing the cost of extending access services to the communities and thereby optimized the cost per connection (c) Blended Implementation Approach; - during Project implementation, there was a good mix in the use of EPC contractors, in-house line construction teams and REG Branches; this Page 73 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) increased flexibility and efficiency in line construction particular for low voltage lines thus mitigation delays that would have otherwise ben encountered and ultimately fast-tracking new customer connections. (d) Upfront Connection Costs; - for a long time, the upfront connection fee and the subsequent repayment schedule of the remaining portion were a barrier to the fast uptake of new connections. The revised new connection policy of October 2017, which waived the compulsory upfront fee and allowed for a more flexible repayment schedule which correlates with the purchasing power of the customer of electricity, has significantly contributed to higher growth in household connections. (e) Stocking Materials for fill-in Connections; - this boosts the speed for faster household connections given that the network backbone is already reached the larger part of the country and many settlements are within the network foot-print and can easily be connected faster and reach a far wider area of the country. (f) Network Backbone Limitations; we have also learnt that while most public institutions can be easily identifiable and are generally candidate for being connected and thus the target of 100% originally set for the Project, experience has shown that some of these institutions are far flung from the network backbone and thus would be too expensive to reach by grid extension, more targeted and tailored off grid and mini grid solutions may be more viable in such circumstances. (g) Growing National Construction Capacity; - The capacity of the private companies for construction of lines has increased since most of the contractors always subcontract local companies to carry out the line construction activities. (h) Increased Availability of Materials Locally; - Local suppliers have also invested in the procurement of electrical materials used by electrification projects and thus can fairly compete with international suppliers. In addition to this, local factories have been set up to locally produce wooden and concrete poles for electric lines. (i) EPC Contractors and Payment Schedules; - experience has shown that the standard IDA tender documents that permit payment of 80% of contract costs upon delivery of materials in substance negate EPC (Design Supply and Installation) contracts into Supply contracts in that EPC contractors seem to maximize their gains upon materials supply and thus lack sufficient incentive to complete their contracts on time. To keep them active and engaged, a more equitable payment schedule should be considered since they real added value is in the on field execution of works than mere supply of materials. Another variation of SBD may be required in future projects Looking at the foregoing assessment and lessons learnt thereof holistically, the overall performance of the Project in achieving its Objective can be ranked Satisfactory due to the following key achievements: • A growth of 151% of New households connected to electricity by an additional 275,714 by March 2018 from 110,000 in 2008 exceeding target (148, 000; 2016) by 115%. • The connection of Health Centers increased from 38.4% in 2008 to 92.1% in March 2018 contributing to improved health care for the greater part of the population. Page 74 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) • School connection increased from 21% to 77.2% in March 2018 permitting better educational services especially demonstration in science and other practical based lessons and in some cases evening preps. • Administrative Sector Office access increased from 38.7% in 2008 to 94.5% in March 2018 enabling better community services and inter-sector communication • Average cost per connection rate continued decreasing (-59.7%) by March 2018 enabling optimizing of funds committed to infrastructure investments and reaching more people with access to electricity services. 4. Evaluation of own performance during preparation and implementation Our assessment of the extent to which the Government and implementing agencies ensured quality of preparation and implementation, and complied with covenants and agreements, toward the achievement of development outcomes, is as follows. 4.1 Government Performance – Overall Assessment -Satisfactory There were no major shortcomings in Government performance. There was commitment at highest Government level for providing enabling environment right from the inception of the Access Program to its implementation stages including: (a) Mobilization of Development Partners that led to the signing of the MoU between GoR and Development Partners in 2008 for the creation of the Energy SWAp. (b) Preparation of the Investment Prospectus, which was proposed in the above MoU and used to prioritise investments for the Access program. (c) Funds mobilization for the Access Program, whereby GoR organized roundtable meetings with Development Partners to get pledges and commitments and eventual materialized financing for the Program. (d) Improvement of resettlements into organized and clustered communities to optimize network infrastructure. In addition, The GoR played a big role in the compensation of local population’s properties damaged/displaced during implementation of the Project and the Access Program at large. Furthermore, the GoR conducted regular monitoring and reviews of the implementation of the Project to ensure its efficacy. For example the review leading substituting a dropping a Component for green connections replacing it with more Grid Rollout thereby increasing the impact on investment per/US$. 4.2. Implementing Agency – Overall Assessment -Satisfactory Former RECO, at the time of establishment of the Access Program, as well as the successor entities i.e. EWSA and later REG have played well their role in implementing this Project. (a) A Project Coordination Unit was set up and staffed with qualified personnel to implement the Project; a list of all staff who worked on the Project is in Annex 4. The Unit was responsible for the following mainly: Page 75 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) a) Procurement of EPC contractors to implement MV network reticulation b) Outsourcing of LV network reticulation and connection of households to local contractors and the Utility’s local branches c) Maintaining complete procurement files d) Project Financial Management e) Preparing regular Project reports, Financial Reports and effective liaison with Auditors (Auditor General), and f) Undertaking supervision of Project activities (b) The implementing agency possessed relevant experience and qualifications in procurement and the Bank fiduciary requirements, and demonstrated its capacity for the successful procurement processes and financial reporting of the Project. (c) The Implementing Agency also continuously improved and eased the New Connection Policy to make connection to electricity more affordable to the customers. Today, customers can be connected without any down payment on the connection fee and the latter is repaid slowly according to the purchasing power of the customer; fifty per cent of the customer’s money is at the time of buying more electricity units is used to repay outstanding connection fee and the rest is used to buy units. (d) The Implementing Agency also improved quality of service delivery whereby there is now at least one REG Branch per District and more than one in some key urban areas. In addition to this, the Branches occasionally organize outreaches during market days and other occasions that bring many people together to bring their services closer to the population. (e) Also, the introduction of pre-paid meters reduced the cases of non-payment of electricity bills, thus reducing commercial losses on the side of the Utility as well as improving utility-customer relationship. Nevertheless, there were some shortcomings in the implementing agency’s performance. Case I point is for Component A, some targets for connecting schools and administrative offices were not fully achieved. On the other hand, One EPC contract by SPENCON Services Ltd could not be implemented fully and was terminated after the contractor ran bankrupt, albeit these were external to the internal workings and controls of the Agency. The Agency however had challenges in expediting some of the procurement processes an area that will require special attention for future projects. 5. Evaluation of the performance of the World Bank, Co-financiers, and other partners during Project preparation and implementation a. World Bank – Quality at entry Our assessment of the extent to which services provided by the Bank ensured quality at entry of the operation is as follows. The World Bank was among the first Development Partners who signed the MoU between GoR and Development Partners for the creation of the Energy SWAp, which was a big commitment of support Page 76 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) to the GoR. The Bank also took lead in supporting the Government initiatives during the preparation of the Investment Prospectus and during its presentation to the Development Partners. The Bank provided technical support in policy and guidance to the GoR and agencies in setting up the requisite, institutional and implementation arrangements including monitoring and evaluation. Fiduciary service arrangements and environmental/social compliance aspects were considered to ensure quality entry. From its global foot-print, the Bank also brought to the bear lessons learned from other projects adapted to the Rwanda environment to enrich the planning process and gunner stakeholder support for the Project and its development objectives. The latter formed a solid basis for the policy and institutional framework to later support project implementation. I addition the Bank worked closely with the GoR team to establish the right baseline and appropriate indicators that would facilitate Monitoring and Evaluation of Project Progress along the way. With respect to Quality at entry Performance Rating, the Bank’s performance is deemed Satisfactory. 5.2 World Bank - During Implementation Our assessment of the extent to which the Bank supported effective implementation is as follows. The Bank, through the Project, financed the ESWAp Secretariat to coordinate implementation of the Access Program and the Project Coordination Unit (PCU) to implement the project. The Bank’s Task Team Leader for the Project and relevant team members worked closely with the PCU to provide timely advice and guidance in the aspects of procurement, contract management, financial management and reporting, as well as social and environmental safeguards. The Bank continuously conducted supervision missions and supporting of the M&E effort to ensure that the project was on track and progressing towards the objectives verified through intermediate indicators. This was coupled by progressive guidance to the project team on the necessary adaptations along the way. The Bank also demonstrated commitment in broadening the project foot-print by approving the second tranche of US$ 60Million for the project bring the funds to US$ 130Million this enabled the project to exceed the initial targets particularly for grind extension and connections. The Bank demonstrated supportive flexibility and was willing to accommodate national priorities in substituting the Green Connections component with Grid extension and connections. This was further reinforced by the approvals of the two extensions that have enable the project to exhaust the fund and thus maximize the return to the beneficiaries The Bank provided enormous support and drew resourceful from and individuals into the project activities especially in conducting critical studies that facilitated the sector reform program especially in the nascent period, 2010-2016 The Bank demonstrated openness in collaborating with other Partners e.g the OFID that translated into co-financing and other collaborative arrangements with other partners at strategic and technical level especially through eSWAP and the Energy Sector Working Group (ESWG) thereby ensuring Page 77 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) sustainability of the Project initiatives. The World Bank provided invaluable support to the PIU and GoR during implementation and the: Implementation Performance Rating is Highly Satisfactory. 5.3. Other Partners Apart from the GoR and Implementing Agency, the other partner on this project was OFID which co- financed with US$ 22 million. This financing mainly supported the Implementing Entity with grid strengthening projects such as the construction of a 36km 110kV Rukarara – Kilinda Transmission line and construction of Rukarara Step-Up 110/30kV Substation to evacuate power from Rukarara Hydropower Plant, the procurement of transformers as well as other connection materials. These interventions expanded the beneficiary spectrum and optimized funding and implementation synergy for the project. OFID’s performance was also satisfactory and was led by the World Bank which reviewed on behalf of the OFID the procurement and financial processes and reporting of the funds. 6. Description of Proposed Arrangements for future Cooperation. The GoR through the National Strategy for Transformation (NST) 2017-2024, has outlined new strategic priorities these amongst others, feed into plans for Universal Access to electricity for households and productive users by 2024. On the other hand, the need to ensure power supply availability, reliability and affordability has taken center stage for the same period and beyond. These are expected to be amongst the wheels that drive economic development and social transformation for Rwanda. The energy sector is at the forefront of this endeavor and thus there is plenty of scope and expectation in future cooperation. 6.1 Future arrangements Arrangements to improve on the same and other related development outcomes include: (a) Continued mobilization of investment resources, domestically, regionally and internationally with emphasis on increased private sector participation especially given the new PPP law. (b) Application of innovative and improved technologies to ensure faster coverage, cost- effective solutions and enhanced reliability of services (c) Application of new electricity connection policy coupled with country zoning to consistently ensure targeted effort for Grid and Off-grid interventions (d) Improved supply chain management to minimize supply bottlenecks especially for connection materials and related products to keep the momentum for achievement (e) Increased capacity building to the Procurement and Project Management functions of the Implementing Agency to ensure faster project though put with qualitative outcomes are achieved on schedule and within budget. 6.2 Risk to development outcome • A comprehensive review of electricity regulations in Rwanda to ensure complimentarily and avoid regulatory conflict Page 78 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) • Maintenance and strengthening of electricity network available: there is need for an effective plan for ongoing O&M of the set-up networks Our current assessment of the risk, that development outcomes (or expected outcomes) will not be maintained (or realized) is: Negligible to Low; Changes that may occur that would be detrimental to the ultimate achievement of the operation’s development outcome include: • Insecurity - this has been maintained and constantly improving and recognized globally • Economic /Financial crisis - these tend to be exogenous factors but to date Government has demonstrated commitment to support the sector where interventions are necessary The likelihood is negligible to low that some of these changes could crystalize. Rwanda has continued maintaining security and at the same time promoting investment to attain stable economy. The impact on the operation’s development outcomes of some of these changes materializing is high. Energy access is a pre-condition to many development goals. Without energy, it is challenging, if not impossible, to promote economic growth, overcome poverty, and support human development. Government ownership/commitment, good governance and engagement of other stakeholders has been sustained and is expected to remain. The energy investment is prioritized and budgeted by the Government to continue improving access to promote the country’s economic growth and human development. 7. Conclusion In general, our assessment on the implementation of EASSDP Project component and the attendant Development Objectives has been highly satisfactory due to such key success factors as High-Level Government commitment and ownership of the project, a realistic and implementable Investment Prospectus, commitment and continuous support from the financiers to the GoR and Implementing Agency, creation of a dedicated and self-contained project coordination unit. Regarding household connections all objectives are highly achieved. The outputs of implementation had a positive impact in the communities taking into consideration that it provided access to households, schools, health centers, Sector offices and villages and contributed to increased access to affordable electricity and poverty alleviation. The project also provided a substantial support on institutional development and capacity building through training opportunity and equipment acquisition. The lessons learned and highlighted here in should be integrated into existing and future projects so as to maximize benefits to the users and spur economic development and social transformation. While some risks have been identified, many remain remote but existing and future project stakeholders are well advised to maintain effective monitoring and evaluation arrangements to handle any emerging risks in existing and new projects. 8. Recommendation Following project implementation and completion, following recommendations are proposed for future projects. Page 79 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) (a) Undertake more line extension projects utilizing turn-key EPC (Engineer, Procure, Construct) contracts, tendered competitively to qualified international firms, (particularly grid-extension projects that involve HV and MV reticulation as well). It is expected that over time local capacity will develop to undertake these works. (b) Development plans should be shared with communities and the private sector, so that they can anticipate on the future infrastructure developments in their area; (c) Enhance full involvement of the rural community throughout the planning and decision- making process to fully integrate their development plans into the electricity expansion process. (d) Sustain and enhance continued discussions among all DP stakeholders to come up with a clear achievable development roadmap based on the available resources Page 80 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) Key Project Information Project description EADSSDP Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and sector-wide approach (SWAP) Development Project (loan) Project Objective Improve access to reliable and cost-effective electricity services for households and priority public institutions Components: (I) National Grid Rollout (II) Green Connections (II) Technical Assistance, Capacity Strengthening, and Implementation Support. Outputs 275,714 households connected Donor and committed amount 130 Million US$ Timeframe Start date: 6/9/2010 Closing date: Initial date: 30/06/2016 First extension date:30/06/2017 2nd extension date: 30/11/2017 3rd extension date: 30/03/2018 Geographical operation areas Countrywide (District) Managing authority of the project Chief Budget Manager: Felix GAKUBA e-mail address: fgakuba@edcl.reg.rw Phone contact: +250788304346 Program Coordinator: Clémentine UMUGWANEZA e-mail address: cumugwaneza@edcl.reg.rw Phone contact: +250788 842 692 Co-Financiers and Other External OFID Partners: Page 81 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) Results Framework as of March 31, 2018 Project Outcome Baseline-2008 End Target- Status March 31, 2018 Comments/ Observations Indicators end 2016 1.Households The current Government plans of electrification connected to electricity 110,000 768,000 810,923 targets to connect 100% of households by 2024 (number) (CORE RMS)56 and 100% of productive use facilitations by 0 2022. 148,000 275,714 2. Public institutions The program has also connected Heath Post at with access to Health C. 38.4% 1000% 92.10% 76% and Hospitals at 100% and including other electricity (%) health facilities like pharmacies. (disaggregated by type) The schools’ connection includes preprimary schools which were not included before and have been connected Preprimary school at 63% Schools 21% 80% 77.20% Primary school at 62.5% Secondary school (O&A) level and VCT at 83.2% Universities and high learning Institutions at 100% The program has gone further connecting the Cell Administrative Offices which provide Sector Admin 38.7% 100% 94.50% primary services to the community members. The Cell Office connection is at 61% 3. Rolling average of 0.06338 (based on 0.18 (based on 730 interruptions/month and The interruption frequency is attributed to a few monthly interruptions 270 71353.92km MV line)-March 2018 factors such as systems faults, switching related per km of MV line interruptions/month -35% to the ongoing works and maintenance, and and 4,260 km MV sometimes loads shedding due insufficient line) generation capacity. 56This is the GoR EARP, whereas the IDA contribution is 275,714 household connections Page 82 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) Project Outcome Baseline-2008 End Target- Status March 31, 2018 Comments/ Observations Indicators end 2016 4.Average cost per Average per connection is continuing to reduce connection [Connection due to; Cost Index (CCI)] Using efficient technologies and appropriate US$1,019 -9% -59.7 % (US$ 411.12) economic incentives Reduced scattered settlement (adoption of government settlement policy) to enable extension of on grid. 5. Project Derived from # of new connections x average Beneficiaries[number] 484 3,379 3,730 household size (4.6 pax) from 2013/14 (EICV 4) (‘000) 6. Of which female Derived from national % of female population 246 1,723 1,939 (Beneficiaries) (‘000) (52%) from 2013/14 (EICV 4) Intermediate Outcome Indicators Component A: National Grid Rollout 7. Distribution network 1,800 km 4,200 km 7,135.92km constructed (km, MV) 8. Transformers a. March rehabilitated/ annual 0 985 2018 cumulative (number) 9. Improved customer A reasonably equipped call center exists for complaint and receiving the complaints from customers. A n/a Yes Continued available of the system resolution system in complaints resolution system is operational. place and functioning 10. New customers This is calculated on the basis that all new using CFLs (%) n/a 90 100% connections are using CFLs. NB: EARP has not used the funds from IDA 11.Number of Solar This activity is now supported by NDF (Nordic Water Heaters (SWHs) Development Fund). installed (annual n/a 9100 2,937 SWH (Cumulative by March 2018 The funds from IDA previous planned was cumulative (number) reallocated to electricity access for supply of materials. Page 83 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) Project Outcome Baseline-2008 End Target- Status March 31, 2018 Comments/ Observations Indicators end 2016 12.Estimated energy • Estimated Investment (in Frw) reduction (from energy =2,699,872,460 for SWH by March 2018. efficient investments- • Estimated investment in frw 998,760,00 for SWH and CFLs) [GWh) CFL n/a 35% 54% NB: EARP has not used the funds from IDA but those from NDF The funds previously planned of SWH under WB are re allocated to electricity distribution (component1) 13. Joint Annual Sector Latest Report was presented to SWG at MININFRA Performance report n/a Yes in December 2017. approved by SWG 14. Spatial grid rollout This assignment is prepared by EARP every fiscal investment plan year and presented in SWG meeting. n/a Yes YES updated by EWSA and approved by SWG 15. Quarterly Program Reports regularly submitted every quarter and monitoring progress current one to be summited by end October n/a Yes YES reports approved by 2017 SWG Page 84 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) List of EPC Contracts EPC District Sector MV (km) LV(km) Transformers Households Comment constructed constructed Installed Connections EPC South Ruhango 78.57 118.097 57 5,741 by OIA Muhanga EPC Ngororero Muhororo, 55.28 119.85 49 4,188 Ngororero Nyange and by OIA Ngororero EPC North Gakenke Busengo, 80 213 42 9,387 The contractor by Cyabingo, failed to SPENCON Gashaki, complete Kivuruga, contractual Remera, and obligations Rwaza and contract Musanze Muhoza, the was Remera and terminated. Rugarama The remained Burera Gacaca, work will be Kagogo, completed Kinoni, under RESSP Rusarabuye, funds EPC Gasabo Ndera, 20.22 27.6 14 1,184 Gikomero – Gikomero Rutunga by and Rutunga OIA EPC Janja – Gakenke – JANJA& 56.2 61 42 3,672 Muzo by Joh Musanze- MUZO Achelis Nyabihu EPC Gicumbi GICUMBI Rukomo, 78.69 146 53 3,818 by Gammon Nyamiyaga, India & OIA Rutare, Bukure, Rwamiko and Mutete Page 85 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) List of all Project Staff EARP STAFF WHO WORKED UNDER EASSDP IN DIFFERENT PERIODS FIRST NAME LAST NAME POSITION 1 KASUMBA Edward Fmr. EARP Coordinator 2 KWITEGETSE Simeon Fmr. Director of General Services 3 MUBERAMFURA Augustin Fmr. Chief Accountant 4 NZEYIMANA Elie Makeba Fmr. M&E Specialist 5 RUTABARA LONGO Jean De Dieu Fmr. Public Relations Manager 6 UWAMAHORO Claudien Fmr. Procurement Specialist 7 KABANDA Philbert Fmr. Environmental Safeguard Specialist 8 SANGABO Richard Fmr. Social Assesment Specialist 9 NTAWUMENYA Daniel Fmr. GIS Supervisor 10 BIREGEYE Vincent Construction Engineer 11 BENIHIRWE Arsene Delphine Fmr. Construction Engineer 12 NGABONZIZA Jean Claude Fmr. Construction Engineer 13 TUYISENGE Philbert Fmr. Planning and Design Engineer 14 UWITONZE Mediatrice Chief Accountant 15 BIRORIMANA Jean Claude Fmr. Environmental Safeguard Specialist 16 MAHIRWE Chris Procurement Specialist 17 MUTIMUKEYE Lise Director of Finance 18 UMUGWANEZA Clementine EARP Coordinator 19 NGABONZIZA Bosco Fmr. Director of Finance 20 Andrew Atterbury Fmr. Director of Finance STAFF WHO SUPPORTED EASSDP BUT NOT ON EASSDP PAYROLL 21 NIYIBIZI MBANZABIGWI Ag EARP Coordinator 22 NGIZWENAYO Dieudonne Fmr. Director of Planning 23 UKWISHAKA Fred Fmr. Director of Construction and Contracts Management 24 KIMENYI Vedaste Ag. Director of Construction and Contracts Management 25 AHIMBISIBWE Reuben Director of Construction and Contracts Management 26 BUTERA Michael M&E Specialist 27 NGWINONDEBE Chantal Director of General Services Page 86 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS Country Assistance Strategy for the Republic of Rwanda for FY09–FY12, IDA, IFC, MIGA (August 7, 2008). Country Assistance Strategy for the Republic of Rwanda for FY14–FY18, IDA, IFC, MIGA (May 1, 2014). EASSDP documentation (PAD, ISRs, Aide Memoires, Legal Documents). Electricity Network Planning and Design Consulting Services “Electricity Access Scale-Up Rollout Program,” SOFRECO, 2012. Energy Sector Functional and Organizational Design, Eduardo Bergerie Pagadoy, July 4, 2014. Energy Sector Strategic Plan (2017–2024), Ministry of Infrastructure, Rwanda, March 2015. Impact Evaluation of the EARP, Green Growth Solutions and Kabanos Business Services Limited, 2016. Midterm Review Report of the EARP, September 2012. Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Development Partners for a Sector Wide Approach in the Energy Sector, July 3, 2008. Performance and Learning Review of the Country Partnership Strategy, IDA, IFC, MIGA, March 2017. Rural Electrification Strategy, Ministry of Infrastructure - Rwanda, April 2016. Rwanda Electricity Sector Access Program, March 2009, Castalia Strategic Advisors. Rwanda Energy Policy, Ministry of Infrastructure, March 2015. Rwanda, Extending Access to Energy: Lessons from a Sector-Wide Approach (SWAp), ESMAP, 2012. Rwanda Vision 2020, MINECOFIN, 2008. Scaling Up Access to Electricity: The Case of Rwanda, the World Bank Group LiveWire, 2014. The Republic of Rwanda Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) 2008–2012, September 2007, Government of Rwanda. The Republic of Rwanda Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) 2013–2018, May 2013, Government of Rwanda. Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2018, a joint report by International Energy Agency, International Renewable Energy Agency, United Nations Statistics Division, the World Bank Group, and World Health Organization. World Bank Group Support to Electricity Access, FY2000–2014: An Independent Evaluation by Page 87 The World Bank Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up and Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) Development Project ( P111567 ) Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) of the World Bank Group. Page 88