Final Report Vendor number: 135382 Date: 11 December 2014 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential About the Study As part of its sustainable energy development program, the World Bank (WB) has initiated a study entitled, “MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential.” The study aims to deliver a detailed survey to develop strategies for raising energy efficiency in the MENA region. There are several tasks envisioned during the course of the project, including: (1) screening/gap analysis and coordination with partners; (2) energy projections, efficiency potential and benefits; (3) lessons from scaling-up energy efficiency investments in other regions; (4) mapping of policies and delivery mechanisms; and (5) policy implications. This report presents findings of the second task, a study on energy projections, efficiency potential and benefits. Authors Emmanuel Bergasse, Therese El Gemayel, Rana El-Guindy Reviewers Nurzat Myrsalieva, Adel Mourtada, Maged Mahmoud Contributors RCREEE would like to thank various stakeholders for their review of the initial planning for implementing this project, in addition to member countries representatives that provided their feedback on the output of this report: - Mr. Sohbet Karbuz, Director of Hydrocarbons Division, Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Energie (OME) - Mr. Vladimir Kubecek, Energy Statistics Section, International Energy Agency - Ms. Wafa Aboul Hosn, Head of Economic Statistics Section, UNESCWA - Dr. Abdel Ali Dakkina, Directeur du Pôle de la Stratégie et du Développement, Agence Nationale ADEREE, Morocco - Mr. Abdelaziz Bourahla, Energy, Environment and Statistics Expert - Mr. Mohammed Al Badrawy, Energy Statistics Expert, independent Consultant - Mr. Mongi Bida, Energy Officer, UNESCWA - Mr. Nasser Al-Ruwaili, Advisor to H.E the Chief Executive of Electricity & Water Authority, Water and Electricity Authority, Bahrain - Mr. Abdelhamid Khalafallah, Deputy Director of Energy Efficiency, Ministry of Industry and Technology / General Energy Dirtectory, Tunisia - Mr. Fawzi Ben Zaid, Ministry of Energy & Mines, Algeria - Mr. Ramy Aly Mohammed, Director Renewable Energy, Manager of Renewable Energy Department, Yemen - Mr. Younes Ali, Deputy General Director, NERC, Syria - Mr. Ziad El-Zein, Public Relations Officer, Lebanese Centre for Energy Concentration - Mr. Yacoub Elias Marar, Head of Solar Energy Section, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jordan 1 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential - Mr. Bassel Yassin, Director Energy Environmental Impact Department, Palestinian Energy and Environmental Research Center (PEC), Palestinian Energy Authority (PEA) - Mr. Mohamed Sidon, Director of the Chairman Office of Renewable Energy Authority of Libya, Renewable Energy Authority of Libya - Mr. Naseer Kareem Kasim, Head of Department, Renewable Energy and Environment Center, Iraq - Mr. Sharf Eldin ElAgieb, Electricity Regulatory Authority ERA, Sudan - Ms. Helen Naser, Consultant (GFA Group) - Mr. Ali Abo Sena, Director of National Center for Cleaner Production, Egypt - Ms. Ruba Al-Zubi, Clean Technology Sector Director at USAID "Jordan Competitiveness Program” (JCP) - Mr. Tarek Saleh, Resource Efficiency and Cleaner Production Specialist, Egypt National Cleaner Production Center (ENCPC), Ministry of Trade, Industry and SMEs - Mr. Habib El Andaloussi, Chief of Energy Section, Sustainable Development and Productivity Division, UNESCWA - Mr. Rafik Missaoui, Energy Efficiency Consultant, Tunisia - Mr. Mohammed Ahachad, National Coordinator of the EE Program in Building (CEEB)/UNDP, ADEREE, Morocco - Ms. Dalia Abdelhalim El-Toukhy, KAHRA MAA, Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation, Conservation and Energy Efficiency Department - Mr. Mohamed Dabbas, Head of Energy Efficiency department, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jordan - Mr. Ihab Ismail, Head of the Planning Department, New Renewable Energy Authority, Egypt - Mr. Tareq Akel, Financial advisor baker, AZI, Jordan - Ms. Salma Aouinti, financial manager, ANME, Jordan - Ms. Caroline Orjebin-Yousfaoui, project manager Water energy transport, IPEMED - Mr. Steffen Erdle, Head of the Regional Project RE-ACTIVATE “Promoting Development and Employment through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (RE/EE) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)”, GIZ - Ms. Rima le Coguic, Deputy Head of the Sustainable Energy and Transport Division, AFD - Mr. Christian de Gromard, AFD - Mr. Abdel Rahman A. Maali, Technical Advisor to the Ministry of Water, Resources and Electricity, Sudan - Ms. Wafaa Mahmoud Al Obaidi, Senior Chief Engineer, Ministry of Oil, Iraq - Mr. Dhahwi Al Hameli, Director of Emergency Electrical Networks Department, Ministry of Electricity and Water, Kuwait - Ms. Sorina Mortada, Technical Consultant to Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation (LCEC) - Mr. Sam Gouda, President and Lead Expert, Creara International LLC, Egypt - Mr. Ezzedine Khalfallah, Independent Consultant, Tunisia - Ms. Florentine Visser, Key Expert EE Building & Urban Planning, MED-ENEC 2 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Contents 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 8 2 Data, Methodology, and Key Assumptions ................................................................ 9 2.1 Data ............................................................................................................. 9 2.2 Methodology and Key Assumptions ................................................................ 12 2.2.1 Energy Demand Projections .................................................................... 12 2.2.2 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 13 2.2.3 Cost of Conserved Energy ....................................................................... 16 2.2.4 Reductions in Energy Expenditures and Avoided Investments ...................... 18 3 Results for the MENA Region ................................................................................ 20 3.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ......................................................... 20 3.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 ....................................................................... 20 3.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ....................................................................... 21 3.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ............................................................................ 23 3.4.1 Electricity.............................................................................................. 23 3.4.2 End-Use Sectors .................................................................................... 23 3.4.3 Country Comparison ............................................................................... 25 3.4.4 Projections for 2020 and 2025 ................................................................. 26 3.4.5 CO2 Emissions ....................................................................................... 27 4 Results by Country ............................................................................................. 29 4.1 Algeria........................................................................................................ 29 4.1.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................... 29 4.1.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 ................................................................. 30 4.1.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ................................................................. 30 4.1.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 32 4.1.5 Energy Efficiency Potential in 2020 and 2025 ............................................ 34 4.2 Bahrain....................................................................................................... 35 4.2.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................... 35 4.2.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 ................................................................. 36 4.2.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ................................................................. 36 4.2.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 37 4.2.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 ................................................ 40 4.3 Egypt ......................................................................................................... 41 4.3.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................... 41 3 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.3.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 ................................................................. 42 4.3.3 Energy Outlook 2025 .............................................................................. 42 4.3.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 44 4.3.5 Energy Efficiency potential 2020 and 2025 ................................................ 46 4.3.6 Cost of conserved energy ........................................................................ 46 4.3.7 Reduction in energy expenditures and avoided investment .......................... 48 4.4 Iraq............................................................................................................ 49 4.4.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................... 49 4.4.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 ................................................................. 50 4.4.3 Energy Outlook 2025 .............................................................................. 50 4.4.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 52 4.4.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 ................................................ 54 4.5 Jordan ........................................................................................................ 55 4.5.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................... 55 4.5.2 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 ................................................................ 56 4.5.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ................................................................. 56 4.5.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 58 4.5.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 ................................................ 60 4.5.6 Cost of Conserved Energy Curve .............................................................. 61 4.6 Kuwait ........................................................................................................ 65 4.6.1 Overview of Energy Demand and Supply................................................... 65 4.6.2 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 ................................................................ 66 4.6.3 Energy Outlook 2025 .............................................................................. 66 4.6.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 68 4.6.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 ................................................ 70 4.7 Lebanon ..................................................................................................... 71 4.7.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................... 71 4.7.2 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 ................................................................ 72 4.7.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ................................................................. 72 4.7.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 74 4.7.5 Energy Efficiency potential 2020 and 2025 ................................................ 76 4.7.6 Cost of conserved energy ........................................................................ 77 4.7.7 Reductions in energy expenditures and avoided investment ........................ 78 4.8 Libya .......................................................................................................... 80 4 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.8.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................... 80 4.8.2 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 ................................................................ 81 4.8.3 Energy Outlook 2025 .............................................................................. 81 4.8.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 83 4.8.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 ................................................ 85 4.9 Morocco ...................................................................................................... 86 4.9.1 Overview of Energy Demand and Supply................................................... 86 4.9.2 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 ................................................................ 87 4.9.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ................................................................. 87 4.9.4 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 89 4.9.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 ................................................ 91 4.9.6 Cost of conserved energy ........................................................................ 92 4.9.7 Reductions in energy expenditures and avoided investments ....................... 93 4.10 Oman ......................................................................................................... 95 4.10.1 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 ................................................................ 96 4.10.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ................................................................. 96 4.10.3 Energy Efficiency Potential ...................................................................... 98 4.10.4 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 .............................................. 100 4.11 Palestine ................................................................................................... 101 4.11.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................. 101 4.11.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 ............................................................... 102 4.11.3 Energy Outlook 2025 ............................................................................ 102 4.11.4 Energy Efficiency Potential .................................................................... 104 4.11.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 .............................................. 105 4.12 Qatar ....................................................................................................... 107 4.12.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................. 107 4.12.2 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 .............................................................. 108 4.12.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ............................................................... 108 4.12.4 Energy Efficiency Potential .................................................................... 110 4.12.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 .............................................. 112 4.13 Saudi Arabia.............................................................................................. 113 4.13.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................. 113 4.13.2 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 .............................................................. 114 4.13.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ............................................................... 114 5 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.13.4 Energy Efficiency Potential .................................................................... 116 4.13.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 .............................................. 118 4.14 Sudan ...................................................................................................... 119 4.14.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................. 119 4.14.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 ............................................................... 120 4.14.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ............................................................... 120 4.14.4 Energy Efficiency Potential .................................................................... 122 4.14.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 .............................................. 124 4.15 Tunisia ..................................................................................................... 125 4.15.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................. 125 4.15.2 Energy Demand Outlook ....................................................................... 126 4.15.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ............................................................... 126 4.15.4 Energy Efficiency Potential .................................................................... 128 4.15.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 .............................................. 130 4.15.6 Cost of conserved energy ...................................................................... 131 4.15.7 Reduction in energy expenditures and avoided investments ...................... 132 4.16 United Arab Emirates .................................................................................. 134 4.16.1 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 .............................................................. 135 4.16.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ............................................................... 135 4.16.3 Energy Efficiency Potential .................................................................... 137 4.16.4 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 .............................................. 139 4.17 Yemen ...................................................................................................... 140 4.17.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand ................................................. 140 4.17.2 Energy Demand Outlook ....................................................................... 141 4.17.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 ............................................................... 141 4.17.4 Energy Efficiency Potential .................................................................... 143 4.17.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 .............................................. 145 List of figures......................................................................................................... 146 List of tables .......................................................................................................... 149 Annex A: Data Sources ........................................................................................... 151 Annex B: EE Potential Sectoral Assumptions .............................................................. 154 Annex C: Budget Allocation Charts (BAC), 2020 (Source: MED-ENEC and MED-EMIP) ..... 164 Annex D: Advisory group meeting results (Beirut and Marseille)................................... 167 6 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Abbreviations AC Alternating Current AFEX Arab Future Energy Index BAU Business as Usual CFL Compact Fluorescent Lamp EE Energy Efficiency EEI Energy Efficiency Indicator EU European Union GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GCCSTAT Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf GDP Global Domestic Product GWh Gigawatt Hour IEA International Energy Agency kgoe Kilogram Oil Equivalent KPI Key Performance Indicator ktoe Thousand Tons of Oil Equivalent kWh Kilowatt Hour LED Light Emitting Diode MAED Model for Analysis of Energy Demand MENA Middle East and North Africa Mtoe Million Tons of Oil Equivalents m2 Square Meter OAPEC Organization of the Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries OECD The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OME Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Energie OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries PWMSP Paving the Way for the Mediterranean Solar Plan RCREEE Regional Center for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency RE Renewable Energy SWH Solar Water Heater toe Ton of Oil Equivalent TWh Terrawatt Hour UAE United Arab Emirates UN United Nations UN-ESCWA The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia WBG World Bank Group 7 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 1 Introduction The MENA region is one of the few energy abundant regions in the world with extensive oil and natural gas reserves. Countries have been extracting large quantities of hydrocarbons to be exported and used worldwide. The broad availability of hydrocarbons associated with universal subsidy schemes for energy consumption has hindered the use of new technologies to harvest renewable energy and energy efficiency potential. The production of energy from renewable sources is still extremely limited, even as solar and wind energy can be easily harvested due to the climate of the region. What is more, political revolutions and wars in the region greatly impacted several energy sectors. While some countries were affected more than others, energy sectors in the region are still growing and the economies of a large number of countries under review are extensively dependent on hydrocarbons. The current report presents (1) a brief overview of current trends of energy supply and demand in the region and by country; (2) a “simple projection” of energy demand for 2020 and 2025 based on a historical trend of energy consumption; and (3) provides an estimate of technical energy efficiency potential. The main uses of energy in the future by major sectors will be assessed, the most important consuming sectors and uses will be identified by subsector, and potential energy savings will be highlighted. It is expected that socioeconomic structure and trends will remain unchanged over the projection period. Countries under assessment are Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Tunisia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. 8 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 2 Data, Methodology, and Key Assumptions 2.1 Data A crucial step for each task is the data collection and appraisal to ensure sufficient relevance and internal coherence, as well as inter-country comparison. This will be done in order to perform the planned project tasks, in particular energy demand projections and estimations of energy efficiency potential. The project primarily relies on the recent RCREEE Energy Efficiency Indicator Study project, as well as on databases from the IEA and ESWCA, especially for the GCC countries. Energy Demand Projections are primarily based on the energy balances series available from 2000 to 2012 prepared within the scope of the “RCREEE Energy Efficiency Indicators Study” project1 and published data of IEA, UNESWCA, and other regional and international organizations including OPEC, OAPEC, and BP. The choice of the RCREEE Energy Efficiency Indicators Study was based on the cross checking and validation of data with national focal points and sources. The format chosen, although slightly altered, allows a suitable comparison of data over the selected period in the same table. Energy balances for the remaining countries, mainly GCC countries, was collected through desk review of available national and international sources. The data sources differ according to each sub-region and are as follows: - RCREEE member states (12): IEA and national sources with an extensive process of data consolidation on total and sectoral breakdown by national experts; and - GCC countries (5): Based on national sources and complemented by regional and international organizations data. This tailored approach was designed to ensure the most relevant and quality sources available were utilized. The following table provides a detailed data assessment by country and data sources. In addition, Annex A presents an extensive list of resources organized by country of the studies, reports, and statistical data sets used to complement the available data sources. Table 1: Data Availability and Sources for Estimating Energy Demand Projections SOCIOECOMIC & ENERGY ENERGY BALANCES INDICATORS UN ESCWA IEA BALANCE RCREEE RCREEE (2000-2012) ESCWA (2000-2012) (2000-2012) INDICATORS Algeria X No XX X NO Bahrain X X X X X Egypt X X X X X 1 The objective of this project was to design and implement a detailed and comparable set of indicators to monitor and assess energy efficiency performance and policies in RCREEE member states. The project offered a regular and consistent baseline data generation process. Information is used in regional benchmarking and decision-making support in designing energy efficiency policies. 9 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Iraq X X X X X Jordan X X X X X Kuwait No X X No X Lebanon X X X X X Libya X X X X X Morocco X X XX X X Oman No X X No X Palestine X X No X X Qatar No X X No X Saudi Arabia No X X No X Sudan X X X X X Tunisia X X XX X X United Arab No X X No X Emirates Yemen X X X X X XX: Detailed sectoral breakdown The lack of direct energy surveys among end-use sectors in the MENA region is a major barrier for energy balance coherence (since it is largely preventing to check supply data) and scope. The absence in these surveys also hampers an effective breakdown of energy consumption by subsectors/products and uses for the industrial, residential, and service sectors. Most countries still lack the tools necessary to collect energy demand data, which hinders the availability of reliable official statistics (See Box 1 below). The lack of data revolves mainly around the breakdown of final energy consumption between economic activities. Despite the efforts made to elaborate more detailed and reliable energy balances, generally the repartition of the final consumption between the main sectors—industry, transportation, tertiary and residential—is problematic in most target countries. Thus, the distribution of the consumption between branches, by use or by mode within the sectors, is not available. This lack of information constitutes a real barrier to calculate indicators at a disaggregated level. Some MENA countries have shown advancement in statistical surveys in several fields related to energy, industry, and agriculture sectors with the implementation of energy use surveys, whether in the household or transport sectors. However, a large number of countries still lack such advancement in statistics that hinders the availability of reliable official statistics. 10 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Box 1: Energy Demand Data Collection An effective and relevant energy data system should primarily rely on a solid and comprehensive data collection scheme, in particular on primary energy supply and transformation data from energy companies. For the final energy consumption by end-use sectors, energy supply sources are generally insufficient even to balance supply and demand in the annual energy balance according to international standards (as for the IEA/EUROSTAT/UNECE annual questionnaires). Only sample surveys on final energy consumption by the end-use sectors (industry, residential, tertiary, transport, agriculture) are possible due to accurate, relevant, and detailed energy consumption data by subsectors and often by uses. This allows a breakdown of final demand in the energy balance. Additionally, direct demand surveys and associated databases have proven to be crucial tools to better understanding of the current and future energy demands and customer behaviors necessary for prospective and energy planning. In the MENA region, only few countries Morocco have put in place regular direct demand surveys in the industrial, residential, and transport sectors, notably through existing surveys. The exceptions include Tunisia, which has since the late 1980s conducted a detailed household survey by the power utility STEG in collaboration with the Industry Ministry and ANME, and more recently Morocco. Nonetheless, despite those references, the support of EUROSTAT (MEDSTAT Energy) and ESCWA, their crucial function, relevance, and modest cost, direct demand surveys are still largely ignored by policymakers and thus remain neglected by national statistical offices and energy ministries. A detailed review of the available surveys in the MENA countries under this study has been made to generate a list of the available surveys of the energy sector at the country level, as well as end-use sectors such as industry, residential, and agriculture. Table 2 below shows a summary of the available surveys and censuses consulted over the course of the study. Table 2: Data Availability and Sources for Estimating Energy Savings Potential Sectors Countries Sources of Data Relevant Reports Energy Power generation All countries, except for AUPTDE, national sources Statistical Bulletin, Sector Palestine, Qatar (statistical offices, statistical abstracts, ministries of electricity electricity and water and energy) statistics Transmission and All countries, except for PWMSP, AUE, World Statistical Bulletin distribution losses Palestine and Qatar Bank, national sources, AUPTDE Oil refineries All countries except OAPEC, OPEC, national Statistical Bulletin, Lebanon and Palestine sources (statistical statistical abstracts offices, ministries of energy), End-use Industry Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, National sources RCREEE Indicators Sectors Iraq, Morocco, Oman, (statistical offices, Study, energy Qatar, Tunisia, Jordan, ministries of industry), consumption surveys Saudi Arabia, Sudan, RCREEE Indicators Study Yemen Residential Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, National sources Household Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, (statistical offices) consumption and Lebanon, Palestine, expenditure surveys, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi energy consumption 11 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Arabia, Sudan, Tunisia, surveys UAE Services Bahrain, Egypt, National sources Tertiary surveys Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, (statistical offices) Morocco, Tunisia, UAE Transport Kuwait, Palestine, National sources Transport Bulletin, Tunisia, Morocco (Statistical offices) Energy consumption surveys, surveys on transport sector Agriculture All countries, except National sources Agriculture surveys GCC (statistical offices) Table 3: Availability of EE Indicators for Energy Intensive Industrial Products 2000-2012 Specific Energy Consumption of the Country Where Data is Available Unit Selected Industrial Products Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, Cement toe/t Yemen Phosphate Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia toe/t Steel Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia toe/t Paper Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia toe/t Phosphoric Acid Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia toe/t Sugar Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia toe/t Data source: RCREEE EE Indicators Study Table 4: Availability of EE Indicators for Road Transport Sectors (Personal Cars) 2000-2012 Average Energy Unit Country Unit Consumption Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, All Cars kgoe/car/year Sudan, Tunisia, Yemen, Gasoline Cars Algeria, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen kgoe /car/year Diesel Cars Algeria, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen kgoe /car/year Data source: RCREEE EE Indicators Study 2.2 Methodology and Key Assumptions 2.2.1 Energy Demand Projections Economic projection is defined as “a calculation of the way that something will change and develop in the future”. It aims to give a picture of the future based on knowledge of the past. In other words, a projection is a prolongation of past trends over a selected period. 12 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential A large number of previous relevant studies and publications on different methodologies for estimating energy demand projections were reviewed to identify the most suitable methodology given the lack of detailed, comparable data sets in the MENA region. The question was whether to pursue energy demand estimations using detailed end-use methodologies (such as the MAED model 2) or a simple econometric model. The latter option has been chosen due to the above-mentioned data constraints. A thorough review of the data over the time series, by sector and fuel, of each country’s energy balance was made. As such, the following data compilations and calculations were performed:  Calculation of the average annual growth rate and average value for the period 2000-2012; and  Projections for 2020 and 2025 based on average annual growth rate. For the period 2020-2025, the hypothesis is that the energy demand growth would be for some countries is less rapid than during the first period, owing to the results of EE policies and measures as well as energy-intensive economies. Such differential growth for this second period would rely on a quantitative and qualitative analysis of existing EE policies and notably its goals (NEEAP) and policy implementation. The projection for the horizons 2020 and 2025 is based on a Business as Usual (BAU) or conservative scenario that implies that the socio-economic structure and energy consumption patterns remain unchanged over the projected period. It correlates with the objective of identifying energy consumption segments and will be the largest at those horizons with current consumption trends. While such a strong assumption may be reasonable for countries with slow change in energy infrastructure and consumption patterns, it may not be relevant for other countries in rapid reforms and modernization such as Morocco and the UAE, especially due to their expanding energy infrastructure and more rapid socioeconomic development. 2.2.2 Energy Efficiency Potential Energy savings and energy efficiency (EE) While both terms are used interchangeably, they are in fact different. Energy savings means using less energy, generally through a behavioural change (e.g. turn off the light or reduce its daily use). Energy efficiency (EE) means using energy more effectively and durably for the same level of service, product, or comfort based on technological, organisational, structural, or behavioural changes (e.g. change the incandescent bulb by a CFL or LED). Thus, less energy is used to produce the 2 The MAED model computes energy demand at the subsector level and activity level. It evaluates future energy demand based on medium to long-term scenarios of socio-economic, technological and demographic developments. It relates systematically the specific energy demand for producing various goods and services identified in the model, to the corresponding social, economic and technological factors that affect this demand. The total energy demand for each end-use category is aggregated into four main “energy consumer” sectors: Industry (including agriculture, constr uction, mining and manufacturing), transportation, services and households. Finally, the model focuses exclusively on energy demand, and even more specifically on demand for specified energy services. It does require a detailed and reliable set of energy and socioeconomic data. 13 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential same service or good. According to the IEA,3 “Something is more energy efficient if it delivers more services for the same energy input, or the same services for less energy input”. For this study, the term energy savings may be understood in a global sense and thus encompasses behavioural energy savings (as occurs through awareness campaigns) as well as EE, in particular through new investments in more efficient technologies. For simplification, in the rest of the report, the generic term of energy efficiency (EE) will be used. Technical potential and techno-economic EE potential While technical potential covers all actions and investments that are technically feasible without the limitations of realisation costs, the techno-economic potential includes only those actions and investments with a payback time (as with the ratio between the economic savings and investment costs) considered as acceptable by most customers. In most MENA countries, the existence of high universal energy subsidies for all customers proportionally reduces the value of those economic savings and thus the payback time and attractiveness of EE. Thus, for simplicity purposes, the technical potential for energy savings will be assessed in this study. The option to estimate the techno-economic potential would require acquiring much more data than is generally available and be based on weak assumptions. Direct RE technology as energy savings A methodological issue is to either or not list direct renewable energy (RE) technologies, such as solar water heating (SWH) and Photovoltaic (PV), as energy savings technologies in the tertiary and residential sectors. In both cases, they reduce the use of grid or direct energy consumption including electricity and thus are energy savings technologies. On the other hand, as RE technology, they enter in the RE potential assessment. For this study, as SWH generally substitute fossil fuels such as LPG and fuel oil or electricity in the building itself and thus generate direct energy savings, they will be considered as part of the energy efficiency potential and technologies. Primary and final EE potential Primary energy savings are realised in the energy sector (supply side), while final energy savings refer to energy savings in the end-use sectors (demand side). Final electricity savings can be converted in primary energy equivalent to take into account the transformation and transport losses. The usual coefficient to convert final electricity into primary energy is 2.58 (1 kWh final = 2.58 kWh primary), or a global efficiency of the electricity system (from the power plant to the consumer) of 38.5%. Based on the broad and in-depth data collection of the RCREEE Energy Efficiency Indicators Study project, reliable country-specific consumption of power generation (in toe/GWh) indicators are available for almost all countries. They are equivalent to a final electricity conversion to primary energy. Nevertheless, a statistical issue is that electricity consumption data in end- use sectors is generally available for the residential sector only. 3 http://www.iea.org/aboutus/faqs/energyefficiency/ 14 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential In a situation of scarce detailed data, especially on energy consumption at subsectoral and product levels as final energy breakdown remains limited in most countries, the use of existing EE indicators to estimate the EE potential appears the best methodological compromise. Generally, the unit consumption ratios are more accurate than relying on physical units, as they have less bias than energy intensities (with possible multiple fluctuations of the GDP and external reasons as exchange rate variations). Energy intensities measure first the energy content of products or services but not directly the physical efficiency of energy use. Thus, it does not necessarily reflect a high or higher EE and hence EE potential. The estimation of the energy efficiency potential by sector or subsector relies on the relative difference between the current level of one EE indicator or a set of EE indicators with references or benchmarks at country, regional or sub-regional levels (when relevant, international references are also mentioned). When detailed data is available by subsectors or products (i.e. for the seven industrial energy-intensive products, public lighting), or by energy uses (i.e. lighting, air conditioning, and motors), an estimation of EE technical potential has been further detailed. The same methodology for EE potential estimation is applied to the electricity sector and end-use sectors, which rely on existing EE indicators. The technical EE potential is estimated for the latest data available year (in most cases, 2011 or 2012). For sectoral EE indicators, benchmarks, and EE potential estimation, energy and socio- economic data availability and reliability at country and regional levels are crucial. While a sectoral EE indicator may be available for one country and considered reliable, the lack of sufficient indicators in other countries may prevent the establishment of a benchmark at country or regional levels that would inform an EE potential estimation. Additionally, final energy intensities (e.g. toe/unit of GDP) are generally too subject to specific structural conditions such as sectoral and product composition to be comparable between countries within the same sub-region. Thus, specific energy consumption ratios such as toe/t and kWh/m2 have been prioritized as generally not directly influenced by macroeconomics and variations and thus provide more accurate data. Nevertheless, these ratios require detailed and reliable energy and socio- economic data, which reduce the possibility of country comparisons and benchmarking. The estimation of the EE potential relies on the following general assumptions:  The reliability of the country EE indicators and the regional benchmarks is relevant between countries in the same sub-regions (i.e. the Mediterranean, the Gulf, and Africa) and is not influenced by structural parameter differences; and  The use of regional benchmarks within the MENA region supposes that socio- economic and technology conditions are similar between the various countries within the same climatic zone and socio-economic categories for the residential sector. Sector specific assumptions are presented in Annex B 15 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 2.2.3 Cost of Conserved Energy The basic principle of the EE potential abatement cost is to associate the EE potential and the corresponding abatement cost in US dollars (USD) or euros per saved ktoe or GWh. Those abatement costs include all direct and related costs (including avoided energy costs) to study, install, and operate EE actions and technologies paid by the customers. They include annualized payments for the capital and operation expenses. In addition, the accumulated energy savings in economic terms (a measure based on customer’s electricity bills) can also be associated. The EE potential measures or technologies are ranked by abatement cost from the cheapest to the most expensive technology or action. This merit order by cost prioritizes technologies with the lowest cost, even if they have less potential. . Uncertainty may be significant for estimates of the EE potential and abatement costs. It is linked with the effective implementation of EE measures and effective investment costs, respectively. The associated reductions in energy expenditures consist of reduced energy expenses for customers while avoided investments include new capacities made unnecessary by reduced energy consumption. The application of the EE potential abatement costs to a set of MENA countries relies first on the estimated EE potential carried out for the latest available year in the electricity sector and five end-use sectors: industry, transport, tertiary, residential, and agriculture and fishing. The estimated EE potential is also projected to the 2020 and 2025 to serve as framework data or the maximum technical EE potential. An indispensable source of information used in this report is the Budget Allocation Chart (BAC) prepared by the MED-ENEC and MED-EMIP EU Southern Mediterranean regional projects for Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia for 2020. The cost abatement approach target electricity consumption and are built based on extensive data collection, compilation, and simulation both in the MENA region and the EU by using a set of EE&RE technologies, as well as their cost and impact on electricity consumption. These are based on an estimation of the electricity efficiency potential and abatement cost in both euro/kWh and total amount for the most promising EE&RE technologies in various subsectors and transversal uses, such as lighting – Annex C. It combines the sectoral 2020 EE potential with selected EE technologies and solar water heating (SWH) within the industry, tertiary, and residential sectors to assess their electricity efficiency potential for 2020. Transport, agriculture, and fishing are not covered as they consume almost only fuels. The electricity efficiency potential is then expressed in final electricity. The abatement period starts from 2012 until the horizon 2020 for the industry, tertiary, and residential sectors. Tables 5 and 6 below show an example of the electricity efficiency potential abatement cost. The unit investment costs (USD/toe) of EE technologies and measures are estimated based on existing international references and benchmarks and on the hypothesis that: 16 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential - 30 percent of the investments are realizable for an average cost of 100 USD/toe; - 50 percent of the investments are realizable for an average cost of 200 USD/toe; and - 20 percent of the investments are realizable for an average cost of 300 USD/toe, for an average total cost of 190 USD/toe (expert estimates based on previous studies and international benchmarks). Table 5: Electricity Efficiency Potential Abatement Investment Cost, and Net Abatement Cost by End-use Sectors and EE Technologies Electricity Efficiency Potential Net abatement Sectors/EE Investment Cost Technologies cost Total of subsector By EE technology ktoe/y ktoe/y USD/toe M USD/y M USD/y Industry Electric motors Compressed air Tertiary SWH Street lighting Thermal insulation Residential Efficient fridges Efficient lighting SWH Thermal insulation Lighting ballasts TOTAL Total without SWH % Total Electricity Efficiency Potential Table 6: Electricity Efficiency Potential, Investment Cost and Net Abatement Cost by EE Technologies Electricity Sector Electricity Efficiency Net Abatement Potential Cost EE Technologies M USD/y ktoe/y Electric motors Compressed air 17 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential SWH Street lighting Thermal insulation Efficient fridges Efficient lighting SWH Thermal insulation Lighting ballasts 2.2.4 Reductions in Energy Expenditures and Avoided Investments The methodology is based on the electricity efficiency potential abatement and associated reductions in electricity expenditures for 2020 for a set of EE technologies. They represent the customer economic savings at a full realization of the electricity efficiency potential in 2020. The avoided investments in capacity (MW) in the power sector are calculated with the assumption that the yearly average of electricity usage currently unavailable is similar to power plant time usage calculated for the total power capacity. The associated avoided investments in economic terms are based on an average investment cost of the combined cycle (CCGT) technology of 850 €/kW or 1,100 USD/kW. The CCGT has been selected as being the most energy efficient and the most common thermal power generation technology. Table 7: Reductions in Electricity Expenditures and Avoided Power Investments Period 2012-2020 Reductions in Avoidable Electricity Sectors Electricity Efficiency Potential Electricity Capacity Investments Expenditures Total of Sub- By EE M USD/y MW M USD Sectors Technology EE technologies ktoe/y ktoe/y Industry Electric motors Compressed air Tertiary SWH Street lighting Thermal insulation Residential Efficient fridges Efficient lighting SWH Thermal insulation Lighting ballasts 18 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential TOTAL Total without SWH % of total electricity efficiency potential / installed capacity 19 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 3 Results for the MENA Region 3.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand The region relies heavily on oil, which makes up to 56 percent of its total primary energy supply, and natural gas, which makes up to 46 percent. An 83 percent increase in natural gas and a 16 percent increase in the share of oil products between 2000 and 2011 are reflected in this figure. Total electricity generation at the regional level increased from 484 TWh in 2000 to 925 TWh in 2012, with a total capacity of 193 TWh in 2011. Electricity was mainly generated from natural gas (59 percent) and crude oil and oil products (40 percent), with 0.2 percent of electricity generated from other fuels in 2012, mainly from renewable sources. In 2011, final energy consumption was comprised of natural gas (17 percent), oil products (45 percent), electricity (15 percent), coal 90.4 percent) and other energies (2 percent). Total energy consumed by end use sectors amounted to 390 Mtoe in 2011 compared to 239 Mtoe in 2000. Available statistics in the region shows that the largest energy-consuming sector was transport at 36 percent in 2011, followed by industry (35 percent) and residential (17 percent). Figure 1 sketches relative sectoral shares for 2000 and 2011. Figure 1: Energy Use by Sectors, 2000 and 2011, Percentage Energy Use by Sector, 2000 Energy Use by Sector, 2011 2% Industry sector Industry sector 6% 2% Transport sector 10% Transport sector 18% 38% 35% Residential sector 17% Residential sector Tertiary sector Tertiary sector 36% 36% Agriculture & fishing Agriculture & sector fishing sector 3.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 Total final energy consumed in the region is projected to amount to 623 Mtoe in 2020, compared to a total consumed energy of 390 Mtoe in 2011 and 217 Mtoe in 2000, an almost threefold increase. Total electricity generation increased from 428 TWh in 2000 to 861 TWh in 2011 and is estimated to reach 1,504 TWh in 2020, representing a twofold increase. The largest energy-consuming sector in the region is expected to be the transport sector at 36 percent, followed by industry at 35 percent, residential at 17 percent, tertiary at 11 percent and agriculture and fishing at 1 percent. 20 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential In terms of physical units, the transport sector will consume 177 Mtoe in 2020 compared to 115 Mtoe in 2011; the industrial sector 175 Mtoe compared to 109 Mtoe; the residential sector 85 Mtoe compared to 54 Mtoe, the tertiary sector 53 Mtoe compared to 30 Mtoe, and agriculture and fishing 7.1 Mtoe compared to 7.1 Mtoe. Figure 2: Projected MENA Final Energy Use by Sector, 2020 1% 11% Industry sector 35% Transport sector 17% Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 36% Figure 3: Final Regional Energy Consumption for End-Use Sector, Mtoe 250 229 229 200 150 100 107 72 50 0 8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 3.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 Total final energy consumed in the region is projected to be 861 Mtoe in 2025, compared to a total consumed energy of 390 Mtoe in 2011 and 217 Mtoe in 2000. Total electricity generation is projected to double between 2011 and 2025. 21 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 4: Energy Use by Sector, 2025 1% 11% Industry sector 36% Transport sector 17% Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 35% The largest energy-consuming sector on the regional sector is projected to be the industry sector at 36 percent, followed by transport at 35 percent, residential at 17 percent, tertiary at 11 percent, and agriculture and fishing at 1 percent. In terms of physical units, the industry sector will consume 229.3 Mtoe in 2025 compared to 57 Mtoe in 2000, the transport sector 228.6 Mtoe compared to 54 Mtoe in 2000, the residential sector 107 Mtoe compared to 27 Mtoe in 2000, the tertiary sector to consume 72 Mtoe compared to 9 Mtoe in 2000, and the agriculture and fishing sector 8 Mtoe compared to 3 Mtoe in 2000. Figure 5: Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, Mtoe Transport, Mtoe Residential, Mtoe 250 250 120 200 200 100 80 150 150 60 100 100 40 50 50 20 0 0 0 Tertiary, Mtoe Agriculture & Fishing, Mtoe 10 80 8 70 60 6 50 40 4 30 2 20 10 0 0 22 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 3.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Energy is consumed in all economic sectors and socio-economic activities. Major energy consuming sectors in the MENA region are the oil refining and petrochemical sectors, electricity generation, and end-use sectors. In the MENA region, total primary energy supplied in 2012 amounted to 511 Mtoe, compared to 386 Mtoe in 2000, at an annual variation rate of 4.5 percent, of which 79 percent of total energy was consumed by the end- use sectors. The total energy efficiency (EE) potential for the region amounted to 142 Mtoe4. The EE was comprised of 76 percent of end-use sectors and 24 percent of electricity sector. The total EE potential represented 28.1 percent of total energy consumed in 2012. Table 8: MENA EE Potential Figure 6: Total MENA EE Potential, 2012 MENA EE Sector Potential, ktoe, 2012 24% Energy Electricity Sector 33,748 Sector End-Use Sectors 108,464 76% End-Use Industry 34,994 Transport 25,261 Sectors Residential 29,825 Tertiary 17,158 Agriculture and Fishing 1,225 TOTAL 142,212 28.1% of TPES Figure 7: Electricity Sector EE Potential, 3.4.1 Electricity 2012 Total electricity generated amounted to 79,564 ktoe in 2012 at an annual variation of 6.1 percent since 2000. The EE potential was Power generation estimated for the electricity sector at 33,748 9% EE Potential 4% ktoe, of which 29,186 ktoe was for power generation EE potential, 1,412 ktoe for Transmission transmission losses EE potential, and 3,151 ktoe 87% losses EE Potential for distribution losses EE potential. Figure 7 across shows the distributional percentage of Distribution losses each component of the total EE potential of the EE Potential electricity sector. 3.4.2 End-Use Sectors The total EE potential of end-use sectors was estimated at 108,464 ktoe in 2012. Within the end-use sectors, industry had the highest estimated potential at 32 percent, followed by 4 Most data is based on 2012, while only Algeria, Palestine and Sudan data is based on 2011. This is due to the lack of updated data for three MENA countries. 23 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential residential at 28 percent, transport at 23 percent, tertiary at 16 percent and agriculture and fishing at 1 percent. Beyond this quantitative estimation of the EE potential, a crucial element for EE policies for the effective deployment of EE is to assess, in each country, what are the priority EE potential sectors and measures/technologies that take into account a broad scope and interlinked factors for: Customers - Economic profitability through reduced and lasting energy bills and maintenance; and - Attractiveness through customer awareness, adequate access to related information (technical economic and financial) and advice on the EE potential realization facilitating its effective realization. Stakeholders (in particular the financial sector) - Ease of the realization of EE potential through investment projects, grouping of projects, and economic and financial maturation. State - Socio-economic benefits, including for customers through reduced energy bills enhancing household’s welfare and business competiveness, as well as establishing and developing an EE sector; - Durable reduction of country energy consumption and imports, along with the associated subsidies for consumption and investment; - Ease of the realization of the EE potential through investment size and maturation for an optimal use of eventual state incentives such as grants and loans for EE investment and support administration; and - Deployment of low-cost transversal measures as compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) and S&L. 3.4.2.1 Sectoral analysis Industry Beyond the large and energy-intensive industrial plants and companies for which EE investments are generally sizeable and relatively well identified for a relatively low unit management cost owing to the size and grouping of projects especially on utilities as boilers, motors, lighting or compressed air, it is necessary to analyse SMEs through a sectoral approach as these smaller-sized companies are diverse in terms of their processes, sectors, markets, and locations. Tertiary This sector includes subsectors and units with public administrations; private businesses for public such as hotels, commerce, and banks; and staff. Also diverse, the energy use of enterprises in this sector varies widely even if EE projects can be identified transversally for utilities and similar consumer types. 24 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Residential The residential sector comprises a large number of individual units, with great heterogeneity in terms of geography, society, economy, and level of urbanization, allowing for an effective and swift realization of EE potential. As such, the design of transversal and replicable measures applicable to most customer profiles is preferable. Transport This sector is particularly complex owing to the number and diversity of consuming units such as private and company cars, passenger and freight vehicles, and local and international vehicles. With an associated lack of reliable data, the design and implementation of EE measures requires a specific approach. The following table provides a qualitative assessment of the deployment of EE technologies and measures by sector Table 9: Assessment of EE Deployment of Technologies and Measures by Sector Unit Consuming Data EE Investment Transversal Sector Concentration Availability Size (Utilities) Industry ++ + ++ ++ Tertiary + + + ++ Residential -- - - + Transport -- -- - NR 3.4.3 Country Comparison The MENA region is comprised of countries with varying energy needs and consumption patterns, available energy resources; size of economy; level of economic development; and population and land size. The above-mentioned factors play an important role in characterizing the magnitude of the EE potential. The table below shows a ranking of MENA countries from the largest estimated EE potential to the smallest. Table 10: EE Potential in the MENA Region in 2012 EE Potential EE Potential Country (ktoe, 2012) (% of TPES) Saudi Arabia 48,900 24 Egypt 19,809 25 UAE 18,045 27 Algeria (2011) 9,467 23 Kuwait 8,272 24 Iraq 7,064 16 Oman 6,128 23 Morocco 4,964 28 Qatar 4,442 12 Libya 3,650 21 Sudan (2011) 2,930 18 25 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Tunisia 2,181 22 Lebanon 1,818 25 Jordan 1,612 22 Bahrain 1,578 10 Yemen 944 12 Palestine (2011) 407 28 The highest EE potentials were recorded in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, where their estimated values are much higher than other countries in the region. Those differences is influenced by several factors, which include the size of the country, its level and type of production, energy consumption patterns, and the age and efficiency of the installed electricity system. The technical EE potential estimated for Saudi Arabia indicated that 48.9 Mtoe can be saved, or 24.4 percent of TPES; Egypt can save 20 Mtoe or 26 percent of TPES; and the United Arab Emirates can save 18 Mtoe, or 24 percent of TPES. These savings can be realized if technical improvements are implemented to increase the efficiency of the electricity sector and end-use sectors. Yemen and Palestine are the countries with the lowest EE potential based on technical improvements of the electricity sector and end-use sectors. In Yemen, the energy sector is underdeveloped due to a low level of economic maturity and chronic financial difficulties. The lack and limited access to energy resources in Palestine has greatly impacted the consumption patterns of the population with no access to fossil fuels and limited electricity generation capacity, decreasing its EE potential. 3.4.4 Projections for 2020 and 2025 Based on 2000 – 2012 annual sectoral variation (percent/year), a simple projection was done in order to estimate the technical EE potential for the region in the years 2020 and 2025. The MENA total EE potential amounted to 222 Mtoe in 2020 and 297 Mtoe in 2025. The EE potential is projected to account 74 percent of end-use sectors in 2020 and 73 percent in 2025, as for the electricity sector, it should represent 26 percent in 2020 and 27 percent in 2025. The total EE potential represented 21.9 percent of total energy consumed in 2020 and 20.4 percent in 2025. Table 11: MENA EE potential 2020, 2025 Sector EE saving potential, Ktoe, EE saving potential, Ktoe, 2020 2025 Electricity Sector 57,190 81,609 End-Use Sectors 165,490 215,735 Industry 51,469 66,069 Transport 38,820 50,896 Residential 44,576 56,903 26 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Tertiary 29,154 40,274 Agriculture and Fishing 1,471 1,593 TOTAL 222,680 297,344 % of TPES 21.9% 20.4% Figure 9: Total MENA EE potential in 2020 Figure 8: Total MENA EE potential in 2025 26% 27% Energy Energy 74% Sector 73% Sector End-Use Sectors End-Use Sectors The EE potential for the electricity sector is projected to amount 57 Mtoe in 2020 and 82 Mtoe in 2025, as for the end-use sectors to reach 165 Mtoe in 2020 and 216 Mtoe in 2025. As shown in figure 10, industry will still account for the largest estimated potential at 31 percent, followed by residential at 26 percent, transport at 23 percent, tertiary at 19 percent and agriculture and fishing at 1 percent. Figure 10: End-use sectors EE potential 2025 1% Industry 19% 31% Transport 26% Residential 23% Tertiary Agriculture and Fishing 3.4.5 CO2 Emissions The average carbon dioxide emission for the MENA region from end-use sectors amounted to 1.5 teCO2/1,000 USD. For non-GCC countries, this figure was 0.7 teCO2/1,000 USD. For 27 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential GCC countries, this broke down to 3.6 teCO2/1,000 USD. The highest CO2 emission was recorded in the industry sector, where the average for the MENA region was 3.4 teCO2/1,000 USD, compared to 1.2 teCO2/1,000 USD for non-GCC and 7.5 teCO2/1,000 USD for GCC countries. The residential sector was the second end-use sector with the high CO2 emissions at 1.6 teCO2/1,000 USD for MENA region (specifically 0.8 teCO2/1,000 USD for non-GCC and 5.8 teCO2/1,000 USD for GCC region), followed by tertiary at 0.7 teCO2/1,000 USD and 0.3 teCO2/1,000 USD for transport. 28 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4 Results by Country 4.1 Algeria 4.1.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand Algeria’s energy production amounted to 143,793 ktoe in 2011, mostly from natural gas and crude oil at an annual increase of 0.2 percent from 2000. Algeria relies heavily on exporting hydrocarbons, which decreased from 113,645 ktoe in 2000 to 104,419 ktoe in 2011, while its primary energy increased during the same period from 26,550 to 41,100 ktoe. Final energy consumption amounted to 26,315 ktoe in 2012, compared to 15,894 ktoe in 2000, an increase of 66 percent. Final energy consumed in 2011 originated from oil products (53 percent), natural gas (28 percent), electricity (11 percent), and coal (0.2 percent). The largest contributor to electricity generation was natural gas at 93 percent in 2011, on the rest coming from oil products. Total electricity generated amounted to 4,936 ktoe in 2012, compared to 2,185 ktoe in 2000. Figure 11 shows the energy consumed by sector in 2000 and 2011. The largest energy- consuming sector was transport, followed by residential and industry. There was a slight increase between 2000 and 2011 in the transport sector at 11,475 ktoe in 2011. This figure remained constant for the residential sector at 6,976 ktoe in 2011, decreased 4 percent for industry at 5,219 ktoe, and increased 3 percent for the tertiary sector at 2,065 ktoe in 2011. Figure 11: Algeria Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2011, Percentage Energy Use by Sector, 2000 Energy Use by Sector, 2011 5% 2% 1% 8% 24% 20% 27% 27% 42% 44% Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 29 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.1.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 Total final energy consumption by all end- Figure 12: Algeria Energy Use by Sector 2020 use sectors is projected to reach 42,775 ktoe in 2020, compared to 27,771 ktoe in 2011. Generated electricity is expected to 0.43% Industry sector reach 94,771 GWh (8,150 ktoe) in 2020, 10% Transport sector compared to 51,221 GWh (4,405 ktoe) in 18% 2011 Residential sector 27% Tertiary sector The transport sector is to remain the 45% largest energy-consuming sector in 2020, Agriculture & with a total estimated consumption of fishing sector 18,979 ktoe, followed by residential at Figure 13: Algeria Final Energy Consumption 11,303 ktoe, and the industrial sector at of End-Use Sectors 7,373 ktoe. 30,000 25,000 The tertiary sector’s consumption is projected to increase from 8 percent in 20,000 2011 to 10 percent in 2020 at 4,407 ktoe, 15,000 while the agriculture and fishing sector is 10,000 estimated to reduce to 0.43 percent at a 5,000 value of 182 ktoe. 0 2000 2005 2010 2016 2021 Industry Transport Residential Tertiary Agriculture & fishing 4.1.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 Figure 14: Algeria Energy Use by Sector 2025 Final energy consumption by end-use sectors is expected to reach 56,199 ktoe in 0.40% 2025, with electricity generation Industry sector 12% 16% amounting to 129,658 GWh. The largest energy-consuming sector is expected to Transport sector remain transport at 45 percent, followed 27% Residential by residential at 27 percent, industry at 16 sector percent, tertiary at 12 percent, and 45% Tertiary sector agriculture and fishing at 0.4 percent. Agriculture & fishing sector Regarding total energy consumed, the transport sector will consume 25,100 ktoe in 2025 compared to 5,866 ktoe in 2000; the residential sector 14,779 ktoe compared to 3,666 ktoe; the industry sector 8,934 ktoe compared to 3,292 ktoe; the tertiary sector 6,715 ktoe; and the agriculture and fishing sector 225 ktoe from 240 ktoe. 30 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 15: Algeria Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe 10,000 30,000 16,000 14,000 8,000 25,000 12,000 6,000 20,000 10,000 15,000 8,000 4,000 6,000 10,000 4,000 2,000 5,000 2,000 0 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 8,000 400 6,000 300 4,000 200 2,000 100 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 31 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.1.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied in Algeria amounted to 41,100 ktoe in 2011, compared to 26,550 ktoe in 2000, of which 67 percent went to end-use sectors. In 2011, total EE potential was estimated to be 9,467 ktoe,5 of which 21 percent was in the electricity sector and 79 percent in end-use sectors. EE potential accounted for 23 percent of total primary energy supplied that year. Within the end-use sectors, transport has the largest EE potential (27 percent), followed by residential (23 percent), industry (22 percent), tertiary (7 percent), and agriculture and fishing (0.4 percent). Table 12: Algeria EE Potential, 2011 Figure 16: Algeria EE Potential, 2011 EE Potential, Sector ktoe, 2011 0% Electricity sector Electricity Sector 1,958 Industry End-Use Sectors 7,509 23% 21% Industry 2,141 Transport Transport (2009) 2,523 Residential 2,187 7% Tertiary Tertiary 659 22% Residential Agriculture and 27% -0.3 Fishing Agriculture & TOTAL 9,773 fishing 23% of TPES 4.1.4.1 Electricity Generation Electricity generation amounted to 4,936 ktoe in 2012 with an annual variation rate of 6.5 percent between 2000 and 2012. The country’s tailored benchmark for the power generation efficiency based on the power technology and mix was set at 53 percent, a 15 percent increase from 2011 at 1,636 ktoe. The specific consumption of power generation measured 220 toe/GWh. The transmission and distribution losses of electricity were 19.3 percent in 2011, of which transmission losses were 5.2 percent and distribution losses 14.1 percent. The Maghreb benchmark was set at 4 percent for transmission losses and 8 percent for the distribution losses, estimating a total of 323 ktoe for total transmission and distribution losses EE potential, of which 53 ktoe for transmission losses and 270 ktoe for distribution losses. The total EE potential for the electricity sector in terms of primary energy was 1,958 ktoe in 2011. 5 Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 32 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.1.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry Final energy intensity of the industry sector amounted to 0.321 toe/1,000 USD in 2011, compared to 0.408 toe/1,000 USD in 2000. The EE potential for the industry sector for 2011 in terms of final energy was 1,483 ktoe, using an energy intensity efficiency country- tailored benchmark based on the structure of the sector, its evolution, and country performances. Within nine energy-intensive products, data was available only for cement, indicating an EE potential of 37 percent, or 741 ktoe. Additionally, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was equivalent to 658 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the industry sector at 2,141 ktoe. The CO2 intensity of the industry sector amounted to 1.17 teCO 2/1,000 USD for 2011, a decrease of almost 20 percent from 2000. In addition, the average emission factor was 3.65 teCO2/toe in 2011, compared to 3.57 teCO2/toe for 2000. ii. Transport The average energy consumption of gasoline cars was 1,309 kgoe/car/yr in 2009, with the total EE potential in terms of final energy estimated to be 2,523 ktoe, of which 718 ktoe is gasoline vehicles and 1,805 Ktoe diesel vehicles. The EE potential for transport covers only private cars within road transportation due to the scarcity of data for other transportation modes, which include railways, air and maritime. The total CO2 intensity for the transport sector was 0.42 teCO 2/1,000 USD and the average emission factor for the transport sector was calculated at 2.94 teCO 2/toe in 2011. The motorization rate amounted to 12.8 persons per vehicle in 2011, compared to 18 persons per vehicle in 2000. iii. Tertiary The final energy intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.065 toe/1,000 USD in 2011, compared to 0.046 toe/1,000 USD in 2000. Using an energy intensity country tailored benchmark,6 surveys showed a potential of 18.6 percent with the EE potential in terms of final energy was 385 ktoe for the tertiary sector, using energy intensity. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was equivalent to 275 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 659 ktoe. On the other hand, the average emission factor was calculated at 4.4 teCO2/toe and the total CO2 intensity of the tertiary sector was calculated at 0.28 teCO2/1,000 USD for 2011. 6Country tailored benchmark based on the Plan Bleu Study “Energy, Climate change and the Building sector in the Mediterranean: Regional Prospects” (2010). 33 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential iv. Residential The energy intensity of the residential sector was 0.18 toe/1,000 USD for 2011, while the specific consumption of energy per unit area in 2009 was 11.58 kgoe/m2/yr. The EE potential for the residential sector in terms of final energy using the specific consumption and country-tailored benchmark7 was 1,795 ktoe in 2011. The final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was equivalent to 392 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 2,187 ktoe. The unit consumption of energy per dwelling amounted to 947 kgoe/Dw in 2011. The average emission factor was 3.3 teCO 2/toe and the total CO2 intensity of the residential sector was 0.6 teCO 2/1,000 USD in 2011. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The final energy intensity of the agriculture sector was 0.013 toe/1,000 USD for 2011. An estimated -0.3 ktoe of EE potential, in terms of final energy, was measured based on an energy efficiency country benchmark for the agriculture sector and the energy intensity of the agriculture sector only. 4.1.5 Energy Efficiency Potential in 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 amounts to 15,358 ktoe and 20,236 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for the period 2000 to 2011. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential of 2025 represents 30 percent of TPES. Figure 17 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential while figure 18 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2011, 2020, and 2025. Figure 17: Algeria Projected EE Potential, Figure 18: Algeria EE Potential, 2011-2025 2025 100% 90% 0% 1. ELECTRICITY 80% SECTOR 70% Industry 60% 23% 21% 50% Transport 40% 30% 11% Tertiary 20% 18% 10% Residential 0% 27% EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL 2012 2020 2025 Agriculture & fishing 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 7 Based on the Plan Bleu study. 34 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.2 Bahrain 4.2.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand The total production of energy in Bahrain reached 24,037 ktoe in 2012 compared to 19,736 ktoe in 2000. The country’s production relies on natural gas , with a production value of 15,384 ktoe and crude oil at 8,653 ktoe in 2012. Bahrain also imports crude oil and transforms it to oil products, much of which is exported. Specifically, 6,387 ktoe of crude oil and 11,838 ktoe of oil products were exported in 2012, a decrease of 10.6 and 2.8 percent respectively since 2000. Natural gas and oil products were the main energy sources for electricity generation in the country, with heavy input from natural gas. Total final energy consumption by sector consisted of 38 percent of energy consumed from electricity, 22 percent from oil products and 3 percent from electricity in 2012. The consumption distribution by end use sector is illustrated in Figure 19. The major energy-intensive sector was industry, which consumed 75 percent of energy in 2012. The second intensive sector was transport, which consumed 19 percent in 2011, followed by the residential sector that consumed 12 percent. Due to the country’s relatively small land area and arid climate conditions, the agricultural sector is limited and consumed only about 0.08 percent of total energy. Figure 19: Bahrain Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage Energy Use by Sector, 2000 Energy Use by Sector, 2012 0.17% Industry sector 0.12% Industry sector 8% Transport sector 12% Transport sector 19% 43% 37% Residential 19% Residential sector sector Tertiary sector Tertiary sector 30% 32% Agriculture & Agriculture & fishing sector fishing sector 35 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.2.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 Total energy consumption by end-use Figure 20: Bahrain Energy Use by Sector 2020 sectors will reach 5,135 ktoe in 2020, compared to 5,330 ktoe in 2012, a 4 percent 0.09% Industry sector decrease. Electricity generation will measure 15% in at 35,402 GWh in 2020. Transport sector 34% The industry sector, which is the largest Residential sector energy-consuming sector, will comprise 34 18% percent of total energy consumed, at 1,699 Tertiary sector ktoe. 33% Agriculture & The transport sector’s energy consumption fishing sector will drop by 1 percent in 2020 to 33 percent at a value of 1,676 ktoe. Residential will consume 18 percent, with a value of 936 ktoe, and agriculture and fishing sector Figure 21: Bahrain Final Energy Consumption consumption will fall from 0.12 percent in by End-Use Sectors, ktoe 2011 to 0.09 in 2020 at a value of 5 ktoe. 2,500 The tertiary sector is estimated to increase 2,000 its consumption in 2020, subsequently amounting to 15 percent of total energy 1,500 consumed at a value of 764 ktoe. This is an increase from 3 percent in 2012. 1,000 500 0 4.2.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Final energy consumption is expected to Agriculture & fishing sector reach 6,833 ktoe in 2025, compared to 5,330 KTOE in 2012. Generated Figure 22: Bahrain Energy Use by Sector 2025 electricity is estimated to reach 44,257 GWh in 2025. The largest energy- 0.08% consuming sector is estimated to be Industry sector transport (33 percent), followed by 18% industry (31 percent), residential (18 Transport sector 31% percent), tertiary (18 percent), and agriculture and fishing (0.08 percent). Residential 18% sector Tertiary sector Compared to 2012, sectors are growing at different rates of energy consumption. 33% Agriculture & The industrial sector is estimated to fishing sector consume 2,059 ktoe in 2025, compared to 1,250 ktoe in 2012. The transport sector is estimated to consume 2,214 ktoe in 2025 from 1,073 ktoe in 2012. In 2025, the tertiary sector will consume 1,160 ktoe, compared to 391 ktoe in 2012. The residential 36 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential sector will consume 1,201 ktoe in 2025, compared to 628 ktoe in 2012, while the agriculture and fishing sector will increase by 1 ktoe to 5 ktoe in 2025. Figure 23: Bahrain Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry , ktoe Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe 2,500 2,500 1,400 1,200 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,500 1,500 800 1,000 1,000 600 400 500 500 200 0 0 0 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 1,400 6 1,200 5 1,000 800 4 600 3 400 2 200 1 0 0 4.2.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied in Bahrain amounted to 16,249 ktoe in 2012, increasing by 51 percent from 2000, of which 33 percent was consumed by end-use sectors. The total EE potential for 2012 was estimated at 1,578 ktoe,8 of which 27 percent was allocated to the electricity sector and 73 percent to end-use sectors. The EE potential for end-use sectors was1,156 ktoe, of which 417 ktoe was from the industry sector (27 percent of total EE potential), 348 ktoe from the residential sector (22 percent), 212 ktoe from the tertiary sector (13 percent), 179 ktoe from transport (11 percent), and 0.4 ktoe from agriculture and fishing (0.02 percent). The total EE potential represented almost 10 percent of the total primary energy supplied for 2012. 8 Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 37 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Table 13: Bahrain EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 Figure 24: Bahrain EE Potential, 2012 EE Potential, ktoe, Sector 2012 Electricity Electricity Sector 422 sector End-Use Sectors 1,156 0.02% Industry Industry 417 22% 27% Transport Transport 179 13% Residential 348 11% 27% Tertiary Tertiary 212 Residential Agriculture and Fishing 0.4 TOTAL 1,578 Agriculture & fishing 10% of TPES s 4.2.4.1 Electricity Generation Total electricity generation amounted to 2,130 ktoe in 2012, compared to 1,192 ktoe in 2000, with an annual variation of 4.6 percent since 2000. The power generation efficiency was 41 percent in 2012, compared to 49 percent in 2000. A country-tailored benchmark was set at 49 percent based on the sector situation and hypothesis,9 regional,10 and international references. This resulted in an estimated EE potential of 337 Ktoe for the power generation sector. The specific consumption of power generation was 170 toe/GWh in 2012. Transmission and distribution losses amounted to 9 percent in 2012, of which 3 percent was transmission losses and 6 percent distribution losses. Using the sub-regional benchmark of 2 percent for transmission losses and 3 percent for distribution losses, the EE potential was 21 ktoe for transmission losses and 64 ktoe for distribution losses. The total EE potential of the electricity sector was estimated in terms of primary energy to be 422 ktoe for 2012. 4.2.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The final energy intensity of the industry sector was 2.2 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. A country- tailored benchmark based on the structure of the industrial sector, its evolution, and other country performances was 1.8 toe/1,000 USD, to estimate the EE potential in terms of final energy at 227 ktoe. The total EE potential represented 18 percent of total energy consumed by the industry sector. The final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 190 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy for a total EE potential of 417 ktoe. The average emissions factor for the sector was 7.6 teCO2/toe while the CO2 intensity of the sector was 16.6 teCO2/1,000 USD. 9 Switch of steam plants & GT to CCGT with 60 percent efficiency and of 20 percent of current CC to new CC with 60 percent efficiency. 10 Qatari 38 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential ii. Transport Total EE potential was in terms of final energy 179 ktoe in 2012, using the total energy consumed by the transport sector that year and based on the percentage of the EE potential of the transport sector of Jordan due to the proximity of the Jordan car fleet to Bahrain. The EE potential represents road transportation only due to the absence of data for other transportation means such as air, maritime, and railways. The average emissions factor of the sector was 2.9 teCO2/toe in 2012 while the CO2 intensity of the sector was 0.14 teCO2/1,000 USD. In addition, the motorization rate was 3.1 persons/vehicle that year, compared to 3.6 persons/vehicle in 2001. iii. Tertiary The energy intensity of the tertiary sector in terms of final energy was 0.51 toe/1,000 USD. The EE potential of the sector was 107 ktoe in 2012 using the country-tailored benchmark that was set at 0.37 toe/1,000 USD.11 The EE potential represented 27 percent of total energy consumed by the tertiary sector. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was equivalent to 105 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 212 ktoe. The average emission factor amounted to 8.5 teCO2/toe in 2012, while the CO2 intensity of the tertiary sector was 4.3 teCO2/1,000 USD the same year. iv. Residential The specific consumption of energy per unit area was calculated at 35 kgoe/m2/yr in 2012, while the specific consumption of electricity per unit area was 352 Kwh/m 2/yr in the same year. The country-tailored benchmark was set at 24.5 kgoe/m2/yr, based on comparisons with countries covered by the Plan Bleu study and expert analyses. The EE potential for the residential sector in terms of final energy was estimated to be 188 ktoe, or 30 percent of the total energy consumed by the sector. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was equivalent to 159 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 348 ktoe. The unit consumption of energy per dwelling amounted to 3,151 kgoe/DW in 2012, while the unit consumption of electricity per dwelling was 31,678 Kwh/Dw. These values are estimated to be of the highest in the MENA region. The average emission factor was 7.7 teCO2/toe in 2012. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The final energy intensity of agriculture amounted to 0.492 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. The country-tailored benchmark based on estimations was set at 0.45 toe/1,000 USD. The EE 11 This was based on a regional study (Energy Efficiency Guidebook, A GOIC Publication for GCC Industries, 2013), building audits, and and the energy intensity of the sector. 39 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential potential in terms of final energy was estimated at 0.4 ktoe in 2012. The EE potential for fishing was not estimated due to unavailability of data. 4.2.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 amounts to 2,411 ktoe and 3,168 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential of 2025 represents 14 percent of TPES. Figure 25 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 26 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 25: Bahrain Projected EE Potential, Figure 26: Bahrain EE Potential 2012-2025 2025 100% 90% 80% 21% 70% 26% 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 60% Industry 50% Transport 40% 20% Tertiary 30% 22% 20% Residential 10% 11% 0% EE POTENTIAL 2012 EE POTENTIAL 2020 EE POTENTIAL 2025 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 40 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.3 Egypt 4.3.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand Egypt’s total production of energy amounted to 87,178 ktoe in 2012, an increase of almost 39 percent from 2000. The country’s main energy resources are natural gas, crude oil, hydropower and renewables. It is worth noting that the country has a production of combustible renewable and waste at the value of 1,617 ktoe and geothermal and solar energy at 168 ktoe for 2011. Egypt imported 9,089 ktoe of oil products in 2011, a stark increase of 143 percent from 2000. It also imported 1,454 ktoe of coal, an increase of 21 percent over the same period. The total amount of electricity exports increased over time from 28 ktoe in 2000 to 139 ktoe in 2011. Gross inland consumption in Egypt reached the amount of 78,129 ktoe in 2011, including all energy resources, both renewable and non-renewable. On the other hand, Egypt depended on natural gas and oil products to produce electricity, with 77 percent originating from natural gas and 23 percent from oil products in 2012. Final energy consumption for 2012 amounted to 66,387 ktoe, with 44 percent from oil products, 28 percent from natural gas, and nearly 18 percent from electricity. The largest energy-consuming sector was industry, with a consumption increasing from 13,137 ktoe in 2000 to 21,278 ktoe in 2012. Industry was followed by tertiary sector, which increased from 2,407 ktoe to 12,907 ktoe over the same period. The transport sector reached 11,576 ktoe in compared to 9,771 ktoe, while the residential sector increased from 5,708 ktoe to 10,856 ktoe. The agriculture and fishing sector increased from 329 ktoe in 2000 to 2,707 ktoe in 2012. Figure 27: Egypt Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage Energy use by sector, 2000 Energy use by sector, 2012 1% 5% 8% 18% 42% 22% 36% 18% 31% 19% Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 41 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 28: Egypt Energy Use by Sector 2020 4.3.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 Total energy consumption is estimated to reach 91,771 ktoe in 2020, compared to 4% Industry sector 66,387 ktoe in 2012. Electricity generation Transport sector will increase in the same period to 246,296 24% 36% GWh. Residential sector 20% Tertiary sector The distribution of energy consumed by sector is projected for 2020 is as follows: Agriculture & 16% fishing sector - The industry sector is estimated be the highest energy consumption Figure 29: Egypt Final Energy Consumption by sector with 36 percent (28,631 ktoe in End-Use Sectors, ktoe 2020); 40,000 - Tertiary follows at 24 percent (19,029 30,000 ktoe); - Residential measures in at 20 percent 20,000 (16,124 ktoe); 10,000 - Transport measures in at 12 percent for the transport sector (12,849 0 ktoe); and 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Industry Transport - Agriculture and fishing measures in at Residential Tertiary 4 percent (3,651 ktoe). Agriculture & fishing 4.3.3 Energy Outlook 2025 Figure 30: Egypt Energy Use by Sector 2025 Total energy consumed by end-use sectors is expected to reach 111,893 ktoe in 2025, compared to 66,387 ktoe in 2012, while 5% Industry sector electricity generation is estimated to rise to 319,437 GWh from 159,045 GWh over the Transport sector same period. 25% 35% Residential sector The distribution of end-use sectors’ energy consumption is projected for 2025, to be: Tertiary sector 21% - 35 percent of total energy will be 14% consumed by the industrial sector; Agriculture & - 25 percent by tertiary sector; fishing sector - 21 percent by residential sector; - 14 percent by transport sector; and - 5 percent by the agriculture and fishing sector. The industrial sector will remain the largest energy consuming sector, reaching 34,154 ktoe in 2025, followed by the tertiary sector at 23,968 ktoe, 20,399 ktoe for residential, 13,670 ktoe for transport, and 4,360 ktoe for agriculture and fishing. 42 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 31: Egypt Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe 36,000 15,000 25,000 12,000 20,000 27,000 9,000 15,000 18,000 6,000 10,000 9,000 3,000 5,000 0 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 30,000 5,000 25,000 4,000 20,000 3,000 15,000 10,000 2,000 5,000 1,000 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 43 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.3.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied in Egypt increased from 49,248 ktoe in 2000 to 78,129 ktoe in 2011, of which 87 percent was by end-use sectors. Total EE potential was estimated at 19,808 ktoe12 in 2012, with 7 percent for the electricity sector and 93 percent for end-use sectors. The industry sector, at 30 percent, has the highest EE potential among end-use sectors (5,948 ktoe), followed by tertiary at 26 percent (5,135 ktoe), residential at 24 percent (4,703 ktoe), transport at 10 percent (1,899 ktoe), and agriculture and fishing at 3 percent (645 ktoe). The total EE potential represented 25 percent of the TPES in 2011. Table 14: Egypt EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 Figure 32: Egypt EE Potential, 2012 EE Potential, Sector ktoe, 2012 Electricity sector 3% Electricity Sector 1,478 End-Use Sectors 18,330 7% Industry Industry 5,948 24% Transport Transport 1,899 Residential 4,703 30% Tertiary Tertiary 5,135 Agriculture and 645 26% Residential Fishing 10% TOTAL 19,808 Agriculture & 25% of TPES in fishing 2011 4.3.4.1 Electricity Generation Total generated electricity amounted to 13,678 ktoe in 2012, increasing from 6,720 ktoe in 2000 at an average annual variation of 5.6 percent. The country-tailored benchmark for power generation efficiency based on the electricity sector situation in 2000 was set at 46 percent, estimating the EE potential at 841 ktoe in 2012. The specific consumption of power generation was 200 toe/GWh in 2012. Transmission and distribution losses amounted to 12.7 percent in 2012, of which 3.7 percent accounted for transmission and 9 percent for distribution. The sub-regional benchmark was set at 3 percent for transmission losses and the country-tailored benchmark was set at 5 percent for distribution losses, estimating the EE potential at 96 ktoe for transmission and 542 ktoe for distribution. Total electricity EE potential was estimated at 1,478 ktoe, in terms of primary energy, with 637 ktoe for the transmission and distribution losses. 4.3.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The final energy intensity of the industry sector was 1.237 toe/1,000 USD for 2012, an increase of 0.708 toe/1,000 USD for 2000. The EE potential for the industry sector in terms 12 Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 44 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential of final energy was 4,943 ktoe for 2012, using an energy-efficiency and country-tailored benchmark, as well as taking into account the energy intensity of the sector. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 1,006 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 5,948 ktoe. The carbon dioxide intensity of the industry sector amounted to 3.8 teCO 2/1,000 USD for 2012, an increase of 69 percent from 2000. For comparison, the average emission factor of the industry sector was 3.1 teCO2/toe for 2012, a decrease of 3 percent from 2000. ii. Transport The EE potential of the transport sector in terms of final energy was 1,898 ktoe in 2012, considering 16.4 percent of the total energy was consumed by the transport sector. Because of the absence of reliable data for the energy consumption of personal automobiles in Egypt, its EE potential was estimated using information from the closest car fleet of another country in the region. In this case, Tunisia has the closest car fleet and hence the EE potential estimation relied on Tunisia’s EE potential for the transport sector. The average emission factor for the transport sector was 2.86 teCO2/toe for 2012 while the CO2 intensity of this sector amounted to 0.13 teCO 2/1,000 USD. The motorization rate in 2012 was calculated at 29.5 persons per vehicle, compared to 48.9 persons per vehicle in 2000. iii. Tertiary The final energy intensity of the tertiary sector amounted to 0.54 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. Using a country-tailored benchmark of 0.37 based on the Plan Bleu study and energy intensity of the sector, the EE potential in terms of final energy was 4,122 ktoe. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 1,013 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 5,135 ktoe. The CO2 intensity of the tertiary sector amounted to 1.8 teCO2/1,000 USD, while the average emission factor was 3.3 teCO2/toe in 2012. iv. Residential The total intensity of the residential sector amounted to 0.3 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, while the specific consumption of energy was 7.52 kgoe/m2/yr. The total EE potential for the residential sector, in terms of final energy based on specific consumption, was 3,060 ktoe using a country-tailored benchmark of 5.4 based on the Plan Bleu study.13 In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 1,643 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 4,703 ktoe. The unit consumption of energy per dwelling amounted to 526 kgoe/Dw in 2012, while the unit consumption of electricity per dwelling was 2,747 Kwh/Dw. The CO 2 intensity of the residential sector in 2012 was 1.2 teCO2/1,000 USD and the average emission factor was 4.2 teCO2/toe. 13 “Energy, Climate change and the Building sector in the Mediterranean: Regional Prospects” (2010). 45 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The final energy intensity for agriculture amounted to 0.4 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. Due to lack of data regarding fishing, the total EE potential in terms of final energy using a country- tailored benchmark of 0.32 and energy intensity of the agriculture sector was 645 ktoe for the agriculture and fishing sector for 2012. 4.3.5 Energy Efficiency potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 amounts to 27,818 ktoe and 32,794 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential of 2025 represents 20 percent of TPES. Figure 33 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 34 shows the variation of the EE potential from 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 33: Egypt Projected EE Potential, 2025 Figure 34: Egypt EE Potential 2012-2025 3% 100% 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 80% 9% Industry 60% 26% Transport 40% 28% 20% Tertiary 0% 28% 6% Residential EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL 2012 2020 2025 Agriculture & fishing 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 4.3.6 Cost of conserved energy A set of the available data for the electricity efficiency potential abatement cost curve for Egypt in 2020 is represented in the table 15 below. It provides a combined estimation of electricity efficiency potential and net abatement cost by end-use sectors for a set of EE technologies. The total cost-effective electricity efficiency potential (1,605 ktoe) accounts for a large share – Almost 48 percent – of the total identified electricity efficiency potential (3,289 ktoe). This indicates a relatively high concentration of the electricity efficiency potential on a set of EE technologies. With almost 1,400 ktoe, the residential sector accounts for 87 percent of the total electricity efficiency potential while tertiary sector represents only 13 percent14. In terms of technologies, efficient lighting in the residential sector dominated the scene with 56 percent followed by efficient fridges at 26 percent and street lighting at 11 percent. SWH on the other hand accounted for a marginal share of only 2 percent in the electricity efficiency potential. 14 Industry is not covered in the Budget Allocation Chart (BAC) for a lack of relevant data 46 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential The needed annual investment cost to realise this electricity efficiency potential is estimated to reach USD 139 million, with almost 78 percent coming from the residential sector. Efficient lighting and efficient fridges account for the largest shares of this cost with 35 percent and 32 percent, respectively. Over the period 2012 to 2020, the total investment cost of USD 1,112 million is largely compensated by the net (negative) abatement cost of USD 2,335 million. Table 15: Electricity Efficiency Potential Abatement Investment Costs by End-Use Sectors and EE Technologies for Egypt over the Period 2012-2020 Net Sectors/EE Investment Cost Electricity Efficiency Potential abatement technologies (3) cost (2) Total of By EE subsector (1) technology (2) M USD/y M USD/y ktoe/y ktoe/y USD/toe Tertiary 1 248,6 208,1 30,2 -135,5 SWH* 36,1 170 6,1 -69,68 Street lighting 172,0 140 24,1 -65,78 Residential 2 040,0 1 396,6 108,5 -156,5 Efficient fridges 411,1 120 49,3 -59,5 Efficient lighting 903,0 50 45,2 -79,69 Washing machines 82,6 170 14,0 -17,29 TOTAL 3 288,6 1 604,8 138,7 -292,0 Total without 1 568,6 SWH % of total Electricity Efficiency 47,7% Potential * SWH is not listed in the EE potential estimation by subsector but covered here Sources (1) Study estimations for 2020 based on 2012-2020 annual variation (see Task on EE potential) (2) Data for 2020. Budget Allocation Chart (BAC), MED-ENEC and MED-EMIP, 2010 (3) Energy efficiency in Building sector of the South Mediterranean countries, Plan Bleu, 2012 Table 16: Electricity Efficiency Potential and Net Abatement Cost by EE Technologies for Egypt Over the Period 2012-2020 Electricity Efficiency EE technologies Net abatement cost Potential ktoe/y M USD/y SWH 36,1 -69,7 Street lighting 172,0 -65,8 Efficient fridges 411,1 -59,5 Efficient lighting 903,0 -79,7 47 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Washing machines 82,6 -17,3 TOTAL 1 604,8 -292,0 4.3.7 Reduction in energy expenditures and avoided investment In term of sectoral and technology reductions in electricity expenditures and avoidable electricity capacity investments, the main results are presented below in Table 17. Table 17: Reductions in Electricity Expenditures and Avoided Power Investments for Egypt over the Period 2012-2020 Reductions in Avoidable electricity Sectors/EE Electricity Efficiency Potential electricity capacity investments technologies expenditures (a) (b) Total of By EE M USD/y MW M USD (c) subsector (1) technology (2) ktoe/y ktoe/y Tertiary 1 248,6 208,1 264,5 447,0 491,7 SWH 36,1 48,8 77,6 85,3 Street lighting 172,0 215,7 369,4 406,4 Residential 2 040,0 1 396,6 1 886,9 2 999,6 3 299,6 Efficient fridges 411,1 555,4 882,9 971,2 Efficient lighting 903,0 1 220,0 1 939,4 2 133,4 Washing machines 82,6 111,5 177,3 195,0 TOTAL 3 288,6 1 604,8 2 151,3 3 446,6 3 791,3 Total without SWH 1 568,6 % of total Electricity Efficiency 48,8% 11,9% Potential / Installed capacity Notes: (a) Based on average avoided electricity cost in 2020: low voltage: 0,087 €/kWh or 1,315 USD/toe; medium and high voltage: 0,083 €/kWh or 1,254 USD/toe (BAC Egypt, 2020) (b) Based on average electricity usage (hours/year)-without available data, hypothesis: similar to power plant time usage-around 5,000 h/y (2012) Power plant time usage (hours/year): 5 414 (c) Based on average investment cost of combined cycle (CCGT) of 850€/kW or 1,100 USD/kW (sources: IEA ETSAP, Fraunhofer Institut) The main result that can be extracted from this above table is the fact that, for end-use customers, the electricity efficiency potential is almost equivalent to a reduction of USD 2,150 million of their electricity expenditures every year over the period 2012 – 2020. On the power generation side, the electricity efficiency potential corresponds to an avoidable capacity of 3,446 MW (2.6 times higher than the recently commissioned Ain Sokhna power plant, considered as one of the largest in the country with a capacity of 1,300 MW) almost around 12 percent of Egypt’s existing installed power capacity. Such avoided new investment on power capacities would be equivalent to USD 3,800 million (using CCGT technology). Cumulating both electricity consumption and supply savings, Egypt should be saving every year more than USD 5,950 million representing almost 2.3 percent of its actual GDP at current price. 48 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.4 Iraq 4.4.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand The total energy production in Iraq consisted of 97 percent of crude oil in 2012 (compared to 98 percent in 2000), 3 percent of natural gas (compared to 1.9 percent), and less than 0.3 percent of hydropower (compared to 0.1 percent). The total production was 155,119 ktoe in 2012 compared to 134,909 ktoe in 2000. The country exported 82 percent of its crude oil production in 2012, while it imported oil products and electricity. Electricity generation in Iraq relied mainly on natural gas, crude oil, and oil products. However, a portion of electricity was produced using other energies, mainly hydropower. Iraq imported increasing amounts of electricity since 2004, reaching 705 ktoe in 2012. Generated electricity almost doubled between 2000 and 2012, reaching 5,307 ktoe in 2012. Final energy consumption in Iraq originated from electricity, oil products, natural gas, and other energies. In 2012, 86 percent of energy consumed in was generated from oil products (compared to 83 percent in 2000), followed by 9 percent from electricity (compared to 12 percent) and 1 percent from natural gas (compared to 7 percent). These different energy sources were used diversely between sectors, as shown in Figure 35. The transport sector is the largest energy-consuming sector. While the industrial sector used to be the second most intensive sector in 2000, residential sector consumption increased to become the second most intensive sector in 2012. Tertiary and agricultural and fishing sectors remained relatively stable at 2 and 1 percent, respectively, of total consumption. Figure 35: Iraq Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2011, Percentage Energy Use by Sector, 2000 Energy Use by Sector, 2012 2% 1% 2%1% 18% 23% 26% 26% 53% 48% Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector 49 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.4.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 Figure 36: Iraq Energy Use by Sector 2020 Total energy consumption by end-use 2% 1% sectors is estimated to reach 25,904 ktoe Industry sector in 2020, compared to 23,619 ktoe in 13% 2012. The electricity generation is Transport 28% sector estimated to reach 92,605 GWh in 2020. Residential Transport sector is estimated to grow sector annually by 3 percent starting 2011, to Tertiary sector reach 14,980 ktoe in 2020. The residential 56% will increase by 2 percent, to 7,552 ktoe Agriculture & the same year. fishing sector The industrial sector will decrease by 5 percent to reach 3,626 ktoe in 2020, Figure 37: Iraq Final Energy Consumption by compared to 4,020 ktoe in 2012. End-Use Sectors, ktoe 20,000 The tertiary and agriculture and fishing 16,000 sectors are expected to have a steady growth at 2 percent and 1 percent, 12,000 respectively, to amount to 468 ktoe and 8,000 295 ktoe in 2020, respectively. 4,000 4.4.3 Energy Outlook 2025 0 Final energy consumption will reach the 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 value of 28,837 ktoe in 2025, compared to Industry Transport Residential Tertiary 19,121 ktoe in 2000. Electricity generation Agriculture & fishing is estimated to nearly quadruple during the same period of time, to 119,354 GWh. Figure 38: Iraq Energy Use by Sector 2025 The transport and the residential sectors 1% Industry are estimated to grow by 9 and 6 percent, 2% sector respectively, starting 2000 to reach 11% Transport 16,982 and 8,675 ktoe, respectively. sector 29% While the tertiary and agriculture and Residential fishing sectors are to remain steady, the sector industry sector is estimated to decrease Tertiary sector consumption from 26 percent in 2000 to 57% 11 percent in 2025 at a value of 3,400 Agriculture & fishing ktoe. sector In 2025, the transport sector will reach 16,982 ktoe, followed by residential at 8,675 ktoe, industrial at 3,400 ktoe, tertiary at 546 ktoe, and agriculture and fishing sector at 333 ktoe. In 2000, the transport sector amounted to 8,845 ktoe, followed by industry at 4,752 ktoe, residential at 4,218 ktoe, tertiary at 286 ktoe and agriculture and fishing at 190 ktoe. 50 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 39: Iraq Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe 6,000 20,000 10,000 15,000 8,000 4,000 6,000 10,000 4,000 2,000 5,000 2,000 0 0 0 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 350 600 300 400 250 200 200 150 100 0 50 2012 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2020 2025 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 51 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.4.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Iraq’s total primary energy supplied amounted to 45,043 ktoe in 2012 compared to 25,936 ktoe in 2000, of which 52 percent was consumed by end-use sectors. The total EE potential for 2012 was 7,064 ktoe,15 of which 42 percent was for the electricity sector and 58 percent for end-use sectors. The industry sector had the highest EE potential at 1,622 ktoe (23 percent of total EE potential), followed by residential at 1,455 ktoe (21 percent), transport at 730 ktoe (10 percent), tertiary at 203 ktoe (3 percent), and 44 ktoe for agriculture and fishing (1 percent). The total EE potential represented 16 percent of total primary energy supplied in 2012. Table 18: Iraq EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 Figure 40: Iraq EE Potential, 2012 EE Potential, Electricity Sector ktoe, 2012 sector 1% Electricity Sector 3,009 Industry End-Use Sectors 4,055 21% 42% 3% Transport Industry 1,622 10% Transport 730 23% Tertiary Residential 1,455 Tertiary 203 Residential Agriculture and 44 Fishing Agriculture & fishing TOTAL 7,064 16% of TPES s 4.4.4.1 Electricity Generation Total electricity generation in Iraq amounted to 5,307 ktoe in 2012, compared to 2,743 ktoe in 2000. The power generation efficiency was 27 percent for 2012. The country-tailored benchmark based on technological potential and fuel mix was set at 38 percent, which estimated the power generation EE potential to be 2,160 ktoe. The specific consumption of power generation was 318 toe/GWh in 2012. The transmission and distribution losses amounted to 35 percent in 2012, without a clear indication whether commercial losses were taken into account, with 13 percent from transmission losses and 22 percent from distribution losses. Transmission losses country- tailored benchmark was set at 8 percent, while the distribution losses sub-regional benchmark was set at 11 percent. The EE potential for transmission and distribution losses was 265 ktoe for transmission and 583 ktoe for distribution losses. The total EE potential for the electricity sector, in terms of primary energy, was 3,009 ktoe in 2012. 15Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 52 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.4.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The final energy intensity of the industry sector was 0.247 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. A country-tailored benchmark based on the structure of the industrial sector, its evolution, and other country performances was set at 0.18 toe/1,000 USD. The EE potential for the industry sector based on the energy intensity in terms of final energy was 1,085 ktoe in 2012. The EE potential represented 27 percent of energy consumed by this sector. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 538 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 1,622 ktoe. The average emission factor of the industry sector amounted to 4.1 teCO2/toe, while the CO2 intensity of the industry sector was 1.0 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2012. ii. Transport The total energy intensity of the transport sector was 0.594 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, while the average energy unit consumption of cars was 960 Kgoe/car/yr. The country-tailored benchmark of 1,000 kgoe/car/yr, along with an estimation of 30 percent of fuel smuggling that was unaccounted for in the average energy unit consumption of cars, led to an estimated EE potential in terms of final energy and based on the specific consumption of cars, for the transport sector at 730 ktoe in 2012. The EE potential represented 6 percent of total energy consumed by the transport sector. The average emission factor of the transport sector was 2.94 teCO 2/toe in 2012, with a CO2 intensity of the transport sector of 1.75 teCO 2/1,000 USD. The motorization rate was 8.5 persons/vehicle in 2012, including the Kurdistan area. iii. Tertiary The energy intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.057 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. A country- tailored benchmark based on the Plan Bleu Study was set at 0.045 toe/1,000 USD, which estimated the EE potential for the tertiary sector in terms of final energy based on energy intensity at 78 ktoe for 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 125 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 203 ktoe. iv. Residential The total energy intensity of the residential sector was 0.65 toe/1,000 USD for 2012. The EE potential for the residential sector in terms of final energy was 941 ktoe in 2012, derived from energy intensity of the sector and on a country-tailored benchmark based on the Plan Bleu study. The EE potential represented 16 percent of total energy consumed by the sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 514 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 1,456 ktoe. The unit consumption of energy per dwelling amounted to 1,170 kgoe/Dw for 2012, with a unit consumption of electricity at 2,746 Kwh/Dw. The average emission factor of the residential sector was 3.9 teCO 2/toe while the CO2 intensity of the sector was 2.5 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2012. 53 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The final energy intensity of the agriculture sector was 0.295 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, however, data on energy intensity of the fishing sector was unavailable. The country- tailored benchmark, based on Yemen, was 0.25 toe/1,000 USD, which estimated an EE potential, in terms of final energy, of 44 ktoe for 2012. 4.4.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 are 11,372 ktoe and 18,071 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values for 2025, the total EE potential of 2025 represents 11 percent of TPES. Figure 41 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential while Figure 42 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 41: Iraq Projected EE Potential, 2025 Figure 42: Iraq EE Potential 2012-2025 100% 0.33% ELECTRICITY 90% SECTOR (1) 80% 2% 11% Industry 70% 6% 60% Transport 50% 8% 40% Tertiary 30% 20% 73% Residential 10% 0% Agriculture & fishing EE potential EE potential EE potential 2012 2020 2025 ELECTRICITY SECTOR (1) END-USE SECTORS (2) 54 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.5 Jordan 4.5.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand Energy production for Jordan was 268 ktoe in 2012, compared to 285 ktoe in 2000. Jordan produced natural gas at a rate of 121 ktoe in 2012 and geothermal and solar energies at 140 ktoe. The country relies mostly on imports of natural gas, crude oil, and oil products to meet its local demands. In 2012, imports amounted to 7,903 ktoe, an increase of 66 percent from 2000. Crude oil and oil products were largest share of imports, of which they constituted 91 percent of total imports in 2012. Jordan exported only electricity at varying rates, reaching 26 ktoe in 2012. Total primary energy available amounted to 7,463 ktoe in 2012 compared to 4,805 ktoe in 2000. Crude oil and oil products amounted to 96 percent of total available primary energy. Electricity generation also depended heavily on oil products in 2012 at 81 percent and 19 percent for natural gas. Total electricity generated in Jordan reached 1,427 ktoe in 2012, compared to 634 ktoe in 2000. Final energy consumption by end-use sectors as per fuel input amounted to 5,932 ktoe in 2012 and is allocated as follows: 4,448 ktoe for oil products; 1,228 ktoe for electricity; and 127 ktoe for other energies. This is in comparison to 2000, when the main energy sources were 2,817 ktoe for oil products, 527 ktoe for electricity, and 71 ktoe for other energies. The largest energy-consuming sector was transport, with a consumption of 2,521 ktoe in 2012 (compared to 1,199 ktoe in 2000), followed by residential at 1,389 ktoe (compared to 887 ktoe), industry at 1,130 ktoe (compared to 851 ktoe), tertiary at 606 ktoe (compared to 370 ktoe) and agriculture and fishing at 156 ktoe (compared with 108 ktoe). Figure 43: Jordan Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage 3% Energy Use by Sector, 2012 3% Energy Use by Sector, 2000 10% 20% 11% 25% 24% 26% 35% 43% Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 55 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.5.2 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 Figure 44: Jordan Energy Use by Sector 2020 The transport sector will remain the largest energy-consuming sector in 2% 2020, with a consumption amounting to Industry sector 10% 17% 49 percent of total energy consumed by Transport sector end-use sectors at 3,983 ktoe. 22% Residential will follow, with 22 percent Residential sector (at 1,830 ktoe), 17 percent for industry Tertiary sector 49% (at 1,346 ktoe), 10 percent for tertiary Agriculture & fishing (at 821 ktoe), and 2 percent for sector agriculture and fishing (at 196 ktoe). Total energy consumed in 2020 will Figure 45: Jordan Final Energy Consumption by reach 8,137 ktoe, compared with 5,802 End-Use Sectors, ktoe ktoe in 2012, while electricity 6,000 generation will reach 27,342 GWh, an increase of almost 65 percent from 5,000 2012. 4,000 3,000 2,000 4.5.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 1,000 The transport sector is estimated to 0 remain the largest energy-consuming sector with a consumption amounting Industry sector Transport sector to 51 percent of total energy consumed Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector by end-use sectors, followed by 22 percent for residential, 15 percent for industry, 10 percent for tertiary and 2 Figure 46: Jordan Energy Use by Sector 2025 percent for agriculture and fishing. Total energy consumed is estimated to 2% reach 9,884 ktoe in 2025, compared Industry with 5,932 ktoe in 2012, while electricity 10% 15% sector Transport generation is projected to reach 35,150 sector GWh, an increase from 16,595 GWh in 22% Residential 2012. sector 51% Tertiary sector Energy consumed by in 2025 will reach Agriculture & 5,013 ktoe for the transport sector, fishing sector 2,101 ktoe for residential, 1,470 ktoe for industry, 956 ktoe for tertiary, and 219 ktoe for agriculture and fishing. This is in comparison to 2012, when the transport sector consumed 2,521 ktoe, followed by residential at 1,389 ktoe, industry at 1,130 ktoe, 606 ktoe for tertiary, and 156 ktoe for agriculture and fishing. 56 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 47: Jordan Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe 2,000 1,500 6,000 2,500 5,000 2,000 1,000 4,000 1,500 500 3,000 1,000 0 2,000 1,000 500 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture &Ffishing, ktoe 1,200 1,000 250 800 200 600 150 400 100 200 50 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 57 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.5.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied amounted to 7,463 ktoe in 2012, an increase of 55 percent from 2000. Of the total primary energy supplied, 79 percent was consumed by end-use sectors. Total EE potential for all energy-consuming sectors was 1,612 ktoe16 in 2012. The electricity sector represented 14 percent of the total EE potential, while the end-use sector represented 86 percent. The EE potential amounted to 22 percent of total primary energy consumption for 2012. The residential sector has the highest EE potential within the end- use sectors at 30 percent, followed by tertiary at 23 percent, industry at 22 percent, transport at 10 percent, and agriculture and fishing at 1 percent. Table 19: Jordan EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 Figure 48: Jordan EE Potential, 2012 EE Potential, ktoe, Electricity Sector 2012 Sector Electricity Sector 224 Industry 1% End-Use Sectors 1,388 14% Transport Industry 348 30% Transport 169 22% Tertiary Residential 486 10% 23% Tertiary 365 Residential Agriculture and Fishing 20 Agriculture TOTAL 1,612 & fishing 22% of TPES 4.5.4.1 Electricity Generation Total generated electricity amounted to 1,427 ktoe in 2012, increasing from 634 ktoe in 2000 at an average annual rate of 6.4 percent. The country tailored benchmark for power generation efficiency, based on the electricity sector situation and international references, was set at 44 percent. Using the power generation efficiency that was calculated at 40.2 percent for 2012, the EE potential was estimated to be 135 ktoe in 2012. The specific consumption of power generation was 214 toe/GWh in 2012. The transmission and distribution electricity losses were 17.3 percent in 2012, of which 4 percent was for transmission losses and 13.3 percent for distribution losses. The sub- regional benchmarks were set at 3 percent for transmission and 8 percent for distribution, which resulted in an EE potential at 14 ktoe for transmission losses and 75 ktoe for distribution losses. The total EE potential for transmission and distribution was 89 ktoe. The total EE potential of the electricity sector, in terms of primary energy, was 224 ktoe in 2012. 16Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 58 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.5.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The final energy intensity of the industry sector in Jordan was 0.41 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. A country-tailored benchmark based on the structure of the industrial sector, its evolution, and other country performances was set at 0.32 to estimate the EE potential in terms of final energy based on energy intensity at 250 ktoe in 2012. The EE potential for industry represented 22 percent of total energy consumed by this sector in 2012. In addition, out of the nine energy-intensive sectors, data suggests the EE potential for steel industries at 5 ktoe and the EE potential for paper industries at 3 ktoe. The final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 98 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 348 ktoe. The average emission factor of the industry sector was 4.1 teCO2/toe in 2012 while the CO2 energy intensity was 1.7 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2012, a decrease of 3 percent from 2000. ii. Transport The average energy unit consumption of gasoline cars was 1,174 kgoe/car/yr in 2012, decreasing from 2,178 kgoe/car/yr in 2000. The EE potential for the transport sector, in terms of final energy was based on the consumption of road transport only due to lack of data for other transportation means, such as air, maritime and railways. The EE potential was 169 ktoe in 2012, based on a regional benchmark from three MENA countries. The EE potential represented 7 percent out of total energy consumed by this sector in 2012. The average emission factor of the transport sector was 2.9 teCO2/toe in 2012, constant in comparison with 2000. The CO2 intensity of the sector was 0.7 teCO2/1,000 USD in the same year, compared to 0.8 in 2000. The motorization rate in Jordan for 2012 was 7.7 persons per vehicle. iii. Tertiary The final energy intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.062 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. Based on the country-tailored benchmark from the Plan Bleu study that was set at 0.043, the EE potential for the tertiary sector, in terms of final energy and based on energy intensity, was 184 ktoe. The EE potential represented 30 percent of total energy consumed by this sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 182 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 365 ktoe. The average emission factor for the tertiary sector in Jordan amounted to 5.9 teCO 2/toe in 2012, compared to 5.2 teCO2/toe in 2000. The CO2 intensity of the sector was 0.4 teCO2/1,000 USD in the same year, compared to 0.4 in 2000. 59 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential iv. Residential The energy intensity of the residential sector was 0.124 toe/1,000 USD for 2012, while the specific consumption of energy per unit area was 7.6 kgoe/m2/yr. The EE potential for the residential sector in terms of final energy was 311 ktoe, based on country-tailored benchmark from the Plan Bleu study that was set at 5.9 Kgoe/m2/yr for the specific consumption of energy for this sector. The EE potential represented 22 percent out of total energy consumed by this sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 176 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 486 ktoe. The unit consumption of energy per dwelling was 912 kgoe/Dw in 2012, while the unit consumption of electricity per dwelling was 4,024 Kwh/Dw in the same year. In addition, the average emission factor for the sector amounted to 4.4 teCO 2/toe while the CO2 intensity was 0.5 teCO2/1,000 USD. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The final intensity of the agriculture sector was 0.32 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. The country- tailored benchmark for the agriculture sector was set at 0.28 based on estimations, providing an EE potential in terms of final energy, at 20 ktoe based on energy intensity. There was no information available regarding the intensity of the fishing sector; therefore, it was not possible to provide an EE potential estimation for this subsector. 4.5.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 amounts to 2,126 ktoe and 2,046 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was projected based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential represents 13 percent of TPES. Figure 49 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 50 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 49: Jordan Projected EE Potential, Figure 50: Jordan EE Potential 2012-2025 2025 100% 90% 1% 1. ELECTRICITY 80% SECTOR 70% 14% Industry 60% 50% 30% Transport 40% 30% 18% 20% Tertiary 10% 0% Residential EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL 14% 23% 2012 2020 2025 Agriculture & 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS fishing 60 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.5.6 Cost of Conserved Energy Curve The total cost-effective electricity efficiency potential – 206 ktoe – for a set of technologies shown in Table 20 below, accounts for only 19 percent of the total identified electricity efficiency potential. The main reason behind this fact is that there exist a lot of EE sectoral and transversal technologies and measures that are not listed in this assessment. As there are more technologies listed in the residential sector than in other sectors, the coverage is higher in this sector (without SWH) and lower in the tertiary and industry. Furthermore, as fuels account for the largest share of total EE potential —up to 75 percent of total EE potential in Jordan—the need to undertake deeper research as the BAC expands the technology scope and also include fuel consumption is highlighted. The residential sector dominates with 62 percent of the total EE potential, followed by tertiary at 23 percent and industry at 15 percent. In terms of technologies, SWH accounts for the largest share with 63 percent, while the shares of other technologies, such as electric motors at 10 percent and efficient lighting at 5 percent, are much lower. The needed annual investment cost to realize this electricity efficiency potential is USD 36 million, mostly in the residential sector which represents 55 percent. SWH and building insulation account for the largest shares within the residential sector at 61 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Over the period 2012 to 2020, the total investment of USD 288 million will largely be compensated by net (negative) abatement cost savings of USD 4,705 million. Table 20: Electricity Efficiency Potential Abatement Investment Costs by End-Use Sectors and EE Technologies for Jordan over the Period 2012-2020 Sectors/EE Electricity Efficiency Investment Cost Net Abatement technologies Potential (3) Cost (2) Total of By EE technology subsector (1) (2) ktoe/y ktoe/y USD/toe M USD/y M USD/y Industry 78 30,4 6,7 -151,3 Electric motors 21,5 220 4,7 -91,3 Compressed air 8,9 220 1,9 -60,06 Tertiary 165 48,0 9,2 -151,7 38,7 170 6,6 -68,77 SWH (a) Street lighting 3,2 140 0,4 -70,33 Thermal insulation (b) 6,2 350 2,2 -12,61 Residential 155 128,1 21,6 -285,0 Efficient fridges 13,5 120 1,6 -29,8 61 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Efficient lighting 10,7 50 0,5 -90,48 SWH* 90,3 170 15,4 -64,87 Thermal insulation** 11,5 350 4,0 -23,4 Lighting ballasts 2,2 50 0,1 -76,44 TOTAL 399 206,5 37,5 -588,0 Total without SWH 77,5 15,6 -454,4 % of total Electricity Efficiency 19,4% Potential (a) SWH is not listed in the EE potential estimation by subsector but covered here (b) EE potential shared between Residential (estimated at 65%) and Tertiary (est. at 35%) Sources: (1) Study estimations for 2020 based on 2012-2020 annual variation (see Task on EE potential) (2) Data for 2020. Budget Allocation Chart (BAC), MED-ENEC and MED-EMIP, 2010 (3) Energy efficiency in Building sector of the South Mediterranean countries , Plan Bleu, 2012 Table 21: Electricity Efficiency Potential and Net Abatement Cost by EE Technologies for Jordan over the Period 2012-2020 Electricity Efficiency Net Abatement Cost (2) Potential ktoe/y M USD/y Electric motors 21,5 -91,3 Compressed air 8,9 -60,1 SWH (tertiary) 38,7 -68,8 Street lighting 3,2 -70,3 Thermal insulation 6,2 -12,6 Efficient fridges 13,5 -29,8 Efficient lighting 10,7 -90,5 SWH (residential) 90,3 -64,9 Thermal insulation 11,5 -23,4 Lighting ballasts 2,2 -76,4 TOTAL 206,5 -588,0 62 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.5.6.1 Reductions in Energy Expenditures and Avoided Investment The main results in terms of sectoral and technology reductions in electricity expenditures and avoidable electricity capacity investments are presented in Table 22. Table 22: Reductions in Electricity Expenditures and Avoided Power Investments for Jordan over the Period 2012-2020 Reductions in Avoidable Sectors/EE Electricity Electricity Electricity Efficiency Potential technologies Expenditures Capacity (c) Investments (d) By EE Total of M USD technology M USD/y MW subsector (1) (e) (2) ktoe/y ktoe/y Industry 78 30,4 34,9 70,4 77,5 Electric motors 21,5 24,7 49,9 54,9 Compressed air 8,9 10,2 20,6 22,6 Tertiary 165 48,0 61,3 111,5 122,6 SWH (a) 38,7 49,7 89,8 98,8 Street lighting 3,2 3,6 7,4 8,1 Thermal 6,2 7,9 14,3 15,8 insulation (b) Residential 155 128,1 164,5 297,3 327,0 Efficient fridges 13,5 17,3 31,3 34,5 Efficient lighting 10,7 13,7 24,7 27,2 SWH* 90,3 115,9 209,5 230,5 Thermal 11,5 14,7 26,6 29,3 insulation** Lighting ballasts 2,2 2,8 5,1 5,6 TOTAL 399 207 261 479 527 Total without 77,5 SWH % of total Electricity Efficiency 19,4% 14,5% Potential / Installed capacity * SWH is not listed in the EE potential estimation by subsector but covered here ** EE potential shared between residential (estimated at 65%) and Tertiary (est. at 35%) *** based on average avoided electricity cost in 2020: low voltage: 0,0841 €/kWh or 1,284 USD/toe; medium and high voltage: 0,076 €/kWh or 1,148 USD/toe (BAC Jordan, 2020) **** based on average electricity usage (hours/year)-without available data, hypothesis: similar to power plant time usage-around 5,000 h/y (2012) 63 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential ***** based on average investment cost of combined cycle (CCGT) of 850€/kW or 1,100 USD/kW (sources: IEA ETSAP, Fraunhofer Institut) The main results include an estimated 480 MW of avoidable electricity capacity, which is equivalent to 14.5 percent of the existing installed capacity. Such avoided new investment of power capacities would be equivalent to USD 527 million (using CCGT technology). Added to the end-customers reductions in electricity expenditures of USD 261 million, Jordan would save above USD 790 Million, or over 2.30 percent of its actual GDP at the current price. 64 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.6 Kuwait 4.6.1 Overview of Energy Demand and Supply Total energy production in Kuwait increased from 114,317 ktoe in 2000 to 173,252 ktoe in 2012. This increase is due to the increase in the production of crude oil during the same period. Kuwait did not import energy until 2009, when natural gas importation started with 728 ktoe and reached 2,164 ktoe in 2012. However, the country exported almost 80 percent of its production in 2012 as crude oil and oil products. Electricity is mainly generated from natural gas and oil products. An increase was recorded in the values of oil products from 4,494 ktoe in 2000 to 8,337 ktoe in 2012, while natural gas fuel input increased from 2,287 ktoe in 2000 to 5,573 ktoe in 2012. Crude oil values as fuel input to generate electricity amounted to 2,338 ktoe in 2012, compared to 1,803 ktoe in 2000. Total electricity generated reached 5,388 ktoe in 2012, compared to 2,780 ktoe in 2000. In the petrochemicals sector, 18,428 ktoe was used in 2012, compared to 10,656 ktoe in 2000. The country used 11 percent of its production in this sector in 2012, while it amounted to 9 percent in 2000. Final energy consumption by end-use sectors increased from 8,441 ktoe in 2000 to 16,787 ktoe in 2012, with a significant increase in the consumption of oil products. The consumption of energy by the industry sector was the highest in Kuwait, at 47 percent in 2000, decreasing to 39 percent in 2012. The transport sector increased by 5 percent to reach 33 percent in 2012. Residential and tertiary sectors slightly increased between the same period to reach 19 and 9 percent, respectively. Figure 51: Kuwait Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage Energy Use by Sector, 2000 Energy Use by Sector, 2012 8% 9% Industry sector Industry sector 17% 47% Transport 19% 39% Transport sector sector Residential Residential 28% sector sector Tertiary sector 33% Tertiary sector 65 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.6.2 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 From 2012 to 2020, total energy Figure 52: Kuwait Energy Use by Sector 2020 consumption by sectors is estimated to increase from 16,787 ktoe to 18,798 ktoe. 10% Industry sector Generated electricity will increase during 34% Transport sector the same period to 94,141 GWh. 20% Although all sectors’ consumption is Residential sector estimated to increase with time, the industry sector will represent the slowest 36% Tertiary sector growth from 2012 to 2020, with a decrease of the sector’s consumption out of total energy consumed (from 39 Figure 53: Kuwait Final Energy Consumption percent to 34 percent) to amount to 6,232 by End-Use Sectors, ktoe ktoe in 2020. 10,000 F The transport sector is will increase from 33 to 36 percent from 2012 to 2020, while 8,000 the residential and tertiary will each have 6,000 a growth of 1 percent during the same 4,000 period of time. 2,000 0 4.6.3 Energy Outlook 2025 Industry sector Transport sector Energy consumption by sector is estimated Residential sector Tertiary sector to reach 24,183 ktoe in 2025, compared to 16,787 ktoe in 2012. Electricity Figure 54: Kuwait Energy Use by Sector 2025 generated is estimated to almost double to 121,426 GWh during the same period. 11% Industry sector In 2025, transport sector is estimated to 31% Transport consume 38 percent of total energy in 20% sector Kuwait, followed by the industry sector at Residential 31 percent, residential at 20 percent, and sector tertiary at 11 percent. Compared to 2012, Tertiary all sectors are estimated to grow in energy 38% sector consumption values, but the share of total energy consumption will grow for all sectors except the industrial sector, which will be reduced by 8 percent. Total energy consumption by end-use sectors for 2025 will be as follows: 8,641 ktoe for the transport sector; 7,157 ktoe for the industrial sector; 4,625 ktoe for the residential sector; and 2,513 ktoe for the tertiary sector. The agriculture and fishing sector is not included in the percentage of the total energy consumption by sector as data on the energy consumption of this sector was not available. 66 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 55: Kuwait Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe 10,000 8,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 Residential, ktoe Tertiary, ktoe 3,000 5,000 4,000 2,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 67 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.6.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied in Kuwait increased from 18,807 ktoe in 2000 to 34,613 ktoe in 2012, of which 48 percent was consumed by end-use sectors. The total EE potential in 2012 was 8,272 ktoe,17 of which 37 percent was for the electricity sector and 63 percent for end-use sectors. In the end-use sectors, residential and industry have the highest EE potential at 23 percent, followed by transport at 13 percent, and tertiary at 4 percent. Data for the agriculture and fishing sector was not available for review in this study. The total EE potential represented 24 percent of total primary energy supplied in 2012. Table 23: Kuwait EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 Figure 56: Kuwait EE Potential, 2012 EE Potential, ktoe, Sector 2012 Electricity Electricity Sector 3,028 sector End-Use Sectors 5,244 23% 37% Industry Industry 1,919 4% 13% Transport Transport 1,063 23% Residential 1,919 Tertiary Tertiary 342 Residential Agriculture and Fishing … TOTAL 8,272 24% of TPES S 4.6.4.1 Electricity Generation Total electricity generated in Kuwait in 2012 amounted to 5,388 ktoe, increasing from 2,780 ktoe in 2000. The power generation efficiency was 33 percent in 2012. The country-tailored benchmark based on the sector situation and international references was set at 49 percent. The EE potential for power generation was 2,574 ktoe in 2012. The specific consumption of power generation was 259 toe/GWh in 2012. The total transmission and distribution electricity losses were 14.2 percent in 2012, with 5.6 percent for transmission losses and 8.6 percent for distribution losses. Sub-regional benchmarks were used to estimate the EE potential of transmission losses at 178 ktoe and 277 ktoe for distribution losses. The total EE potential for the electricity sector was estimated, in terms of primary energy, to be 3,028 ktoe in 2012. 17Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 68 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.6.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The energy intensity of the industry sector was 0.8 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, compared to 0.98 toe/1,000 USD in 2000. The EE potential for the industry sector, in terms of final energy and based on a country-tailored benchmark of 0.55 toe/1,000 USD, was 1,568 ktoe based on the energy intensity of the sector. The EE potential represented 31 percent of total energy consumed by this sector during 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 351 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 1,919 ktoe. The average emission factor of the sector was 3.02 teCO2/toe in 2012, while the CO2 intensity was 2.4 teCO2/1,000 USD. ii. Transport The final energy intensity of the transport sector was 0.044 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, increasing from 0.038 toe/1,000 USD in 2000. The country-tailored benchmark of 0.033 toe/1,000 USD, or the equivalent of 25 percent of total energy consumed by this sector, estimated the EE potential in terms of final energy at 1,063 ktoe. The EE potential includes road transportation only due to data unavailability for other transportation means, such as maritime and air. The average emission factor of the transport sector was 2.9 teCO 2/toe in 2012 and the CO2 intensity of the sector was 0.13 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2012, compared to 0.11 teCO 2/1,000 USD in 2000. The motorization rate was 2.4 persons per vehicle in 2012, decreasing from 3.1 persons per vehicle in 2000. iii. Tertiary The EE potential, in terms of final energy, was -337 ktoe in 2012, using the country-tailored benchmark of 0.018 toe/1,000 USD based on the GIOC study18 and the final energy intensity of the tertiary sector at 0.025 toe/1,000 USD. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 680 ktoe. This added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 342 ktoe. The average emission factor of the tertiary sector was 7.4 teCO2/toe in 2012 and the CO2 intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.19 teCO2/1,000 USD. iv. Residential The total EE potential for the residential sector in Kuwait, in terms of final energy, was 704 ktoe in 2012, based on a country-tailored percentage benchmark based on set of GCC individual audits, studies and expert analysis, and the total consumption of energy by the residential sector. Data for energy intensity for the residential sector was unavailable; hence the percentage was used to estimate the total EE potential. 18 Energy Efficiency Guidebook, A GOIC Publication for GCC Industries, 2013. 69 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted into primary energy was 1,216 ktoe. This added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 1,919 ktoe. Based on available data, the unit consumption of energy per dwelling was 4,704 kgoe/Dw in 2011, when the unit consumption of electricity per dwelling was 49,858 Kwh/Dw. The average emission factor was 7 teCO2/toe in 2012. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector Statistical data related to the energy intensity of the agriculture and fishing sector was unavailable for Kuwait, and the EE potential was not estimated as such. 4.6.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 amounts to 12,108 ktoe and 15,428 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was projected based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential of 2025 represents 26 percent of TPES. Figure 57 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 58 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 57: Kuwait Projected EE Potential, Figure 58: Kuwait EE Potential 2012-2025 2025 100% 90% 0% 80% 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 70% 60% 24% Industry 50% 40% 40% Transport 30% 4% 20% 10% Tertiary 14% 0% EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL 18% Residential 2012 2020 2025 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 70 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.7 Lebanon 4.7.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand Lebanon is one of the two MENA countries under review that does not have energy production from conventional sources through 2012. Energy was produced solely from hydro power and renewable sources, at a value of 87 ktoe in 2012, compared to 39 ktoe in 2000. Energy production from combustible renewable and waste amounted to 119 ktoe in 2012, compared to 130 ktoe in 2000, and geothermal and solar amounted to 20 ktoe in 2012, compared to 4 ktoe in 2000. Lebanon imports coal, oil products, and electricity, amounting to 7,190 ktoe in 2012. The largest quantities in 2012 are for oil products at 6,997 ktoe (97 percent of total imports), 165 ktoe for coal (about 2 percent) and 28 ktoe for electricity. Lebanon does not export energy products. Total primary energy available for consumption was about 7,149 ktoe in 2012, compared to 4,906 ktoe in 2000, comprising mainly of oil products, coal, hydro power, renewable electricity, and combustible renewable and waste. Total electricity generated was about 1,275 ktoe in 2012, increasing by almost 52 percent from 2000. Final energy consumed for 2012 was 4,386 ktoe, compared to 3,289 ktoe in 2000. In 2006, Israel launched a one-month war on Lebanon, affecting the energy sector by striking a power plant and industries, causing a decrease in the total energy available for consumption and energy consumed during that year. Transport sector was the largest energy-consuming sector, with 43 percent in 2000 and growing to 42 percent of total energy available for consumption in 2012 at 1,839 ktoe. Residential was the second most energy-consuming sector in 2000 at 30 percent and increased to 32 percent in 2012 at 1,434 ktoe. The industry sector decreased from 17 percent of total energy consumption to 13 percent in 2012 at 595 ktoe. Finally, tertiary, and agriculture and fishing sectors consumed 4 and 6 percent, respectively, in 2000 and increased to consume 5 and 8 percent in 2012, at 342 ktoe and 204 ktoe, respectively. Figure 59: Lebanon Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage Energy Use by Sector 2000 Energy Use by Sector 2012 4% Industry sector Industry sector 6% 5% 17% 8% Transport sector 13% Transport sector Residential Residential 30% sector 32% sector Tertiary sector 42% Tertiary sector 43% Agriculture & Agriculture & fishing sector fishing sector 71 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 60: Lebanon Energy Use by Sector 2020 4.7.2 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 Final energy consumption by sectors will 5% Industry sector reach 5,271 ktoe in 2020, while 6% 12% electricity generation will reach 19,180 Transport sector GWh in 2020, up from 14,826 GWh in 2012. Residential sector 35% Transport consumed 42 percent of 42% Tertiary sector energy, residential 35 percent, industry 12 percent, tertiary 5 percent, and Agriculture & fishing sector agriculture and fishing 6 percent. In physical units, the transport sector amounted to 2,197 ktoe in 2020 Figure 61: Lebanon Final Energy Consumption for End-Use Sectors, ktoe (compared to 1,839 ktoe in 2012); 1,825 ktoe for residential (compared to 1,434 3,000 ktoe in 2012); 298 ktoe for agriculture 2,500 and fishing sector (compared to 342 ktoe 2,000 in 2012); 255 ktoe for tertiary (compared 1,500 to 204 ktoe for 2012); and 629 ktoe for 1,000 the industrial sector (compared to 595 500 ktoe in 2012). 0 4.7.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 Electricity generation will reach 22,530 Industry sector Transport sector GWh in 2025, compared to 14,826 GWh Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector in 2012. Total energy consumption by sectors is estimated to reach 5,927 ktoe, Figure 62: Lebanon Energy Use by Sector 2025 allocated as follows: 2,456 ktoe for transport, 2,122 ktoe for residential, 342 5% Industry sector 6% ktoe for agriculture and fishing, 293 for 11% tertiary, and 651 ktoe for industry sector. Transport sector Residential sector Energy-consuming sectors are estimated 36% 42% Tertiary sector to evolve as follows: transport sector to stabilize at 42 percent in 2012 and 2025, Agriculture & residential sector to increase from 32 fishing sector percent in 2012 to 36 percent in 2025, industry sector to decrease from 13 percent in 2012 to 11 percent in 2025, the agriculture and fishing sector to grow by 2 percent in 2025, and the tertiary sector to stabilize at 5 percent. Comparing the estimated energy consumption in 2000, the transport sector will grow from 1,377 ktoe to 2,456 ktoe in 2025, the residential sector to increase from 969 ktoe to 2,122 ktoe, the agriculture and fishing sector to increase from 195 ktoe to 342 ktoe, the tertiary 72 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential sector from 142 ktoe to 293 ktoe, and the industry sector will increase from 544 ktoe to 651 ktoe. Figure 63: Lebanon Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe Industry, ktoe 3,000 2,500 900 800 2,500 2,000 700 2,000 600 1,500 500 1,500 400 1,000 1,000 300 500 200 500 100 0 0 0 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 350 5000 300 4000 250 200 3000 150 2000 100 1000 50 0 0 73 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.7.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied in Lebanon amounted to 7,149 ktoe in 2012, compared to 4,906 ktoe in 2000, of which 61 percent was consumed by end-use sectors. The total EE potential in 2012 for Lebanon was 1,818 ktoe,19 of which 41 percent was for the electricity sector and 59 percent for end-use sectors. In the end-use sector, the highest EE potential was estimated to be residential at 537 ktoe, followed by transport at 280 ktoe, industry at 157 ktoe, tertiary at 66 ktoe, and agriculture and fishing at 29 ktoe. The EE potential consisted of 25 percent of total primary energy supplied in 2012. Table 24: Lebanon EE Potential ktoe, 2012 Figure 64: Lebanon EE Potential, 2012 EE potential, Sector ktoe, 2012 Electricity Electricity Sector 751 2% sector End-Use Sectors 1,067 Industry 29% 41% Industry 157 Transport Transport 280 15% 9% Residential 537 4% Tertiary Tertiary (2011) 66 Residential Agriculture and Fishing 29 TOTAL 1,818 Agriculture & fishing 25% of TPES s 4.7.4.1 Electricity Generation Total electricity generated in Lebanon in 2012 was 1,275 ktoe, with an average annual increase of 3.3 percent from 2000. The power generation efficiency in the country was estimated at 33 percent in 2012, excluding electricity imports. The country-tailored benchmark was set at 50 percent, which estimated the EE potential at 649 ktoe in 2012. The specific consumption of power generation was 235 toe/GWh in 2012. The total transmission and distribution electricity losses amounted to 45 percent in 2012. However, according to PWMSP, 26 percent of the losses were due to non-payment of electricity bills, while the technical distribution losses were estimated at 14 percent and transmission losses at 5 percent. Using the sub-regional benchmark of 3 percent for transmission losses and 8 percent for distribution losses, the transmission and distribution EE potential was 102 ktoe, of which 26 ktoe for transmission and 76 ktoe for distribution. The total EE potential for the electricity sector, in terms of primary energy, was 751 ktoe for 2012. 19Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 74 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.7.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The final energy intensity of the industry sector was 0.099 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. The EE potential for the industry sector in terms of final energy was 82 ktoe using the country- tailored benchmark of 0.085 based on the structure of the industry sector, its evolution, and other country performances. The EE potential consisted of 14 percent of the total energy consumed by the industry sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 74 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 157 ktoe. The average emission factor of the industry sector amounted to 9.9 teCO 2/toe in 2012, while the CO2 intensity was 0.98 teCO2/1,000 USD for the same year. ii. Transport The final energy intensity of the transport sector, including road transportation only, amounted to 0.06 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, while the average energy unit consumption of cars amounted to 793 kgoe/car/yr. The inaccuracy of data has led to estimating the EE potential, in terms of final energy, at 20 percent of total energy consumed by the sector in 2012, which corresponds to 280 ktoe. The average emission factor for this sector was 2.9 teCO2/toe in 2012, while the CO2 intensity of the sector was 0.17 teCO2/1,000 USD in the same year (compared to 0.22 in 2000), and a motorization rate of 2.22 persons per vehicle. iii. Tertiary The final energy intensity of the tertiary sector amounted to 0.013 toe/1,000 USD in 2011. The country-tailored benchmark of 0.012 toe/1,000 USD based on the Plan Bleu study estimates the EE potential for the tertiary sector in terms of final energy to be 25 ktoe in 2011. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted into primary energy was 41 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 66 ktoe. The average emission factor was 7.8 teCO2/toe in 2012, while the CO2 intensity of the sector amounted to 0.1 teCO2/1,000 USD the same year. iv. Residential The EE potential, in terms of final energy, was 347 ktoe in 2012, using the specific consumption of energy per unit area (8.18 kgoe/m2/yr for 2010), the country-tailored benchmark (which is 6.2 kgoe/m2/yr based on the Plan Bleu study), and total energy consumed by the sector in 2012. The energy intensity of the residential sector was 0.055 toe/1000 USD, compared to 0.051 toe/1,000 USD in 2000. 75 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was equivalent to 190 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 537 ktoe. The unit consumption of energy per dwelling was 1,273 kgoe/Dw in 2012, an increase of 42 percent from 2000. On the other hand, the average emission factor of the residential sector was 0.6 teCO2/toe in 2011 and the CO2 intensity was 0.03 teCO2/1,000 USD. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The final energy intensity of agriculture was 0.179 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. Due to lack of data for the energy intensity of fishing, the total EE potential for the agriculture and fishing sector, in terms of final energy, was estimated at 29 ktoe in 2012 using the country benchmark based on estimations. 4.7.5 Energy Efficiency potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 is 2,242 ktoe and 2,434 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was projected based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential represents 33 percent of TPES. Figure 65 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 66 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 65: Lebanon Projected EE Potential, Figure 66: Lebanon EE Potential 2012- 2025 2025 2% 1. ELECTRICITY 100% SECTOR 90% Industry 80% 70% 31% 42% 60% Transport 50% 40% Tertiary 30% 20% 4% 14% 10% 7% Residential 0% EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL 2012 2020 2025 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 76 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.7.6 Cost of conserved energy Table 25 below lists the available data related to the electricity efficiency potential abatement cost curve for Lebanon in 2020. It provides a combined estimation of electricity efficiency potential and net abatement cost by end-use sectors for a set of EE technologies. The total cost-effective electricity efficiency potential (93 ktoe) accounts for a significant share reaching 39 percent of the total identified electricity efficiency potential. With almost 1,400 ktoe, the residential sector accounts for almost 51 percent of the total the electricity efficiency potential followed by the industrial sector representing 38 percent and tertiary only 12 percent. In terms of technologies, efficient lighting and housekeeping in the residential sector represent together over 51 percent followed by efficient compressed air at 38 percent. SWH accounts here for a marginal share of 2 percent in the electricity efficiency potential but is not covered in the residential sector. The needed annual investment cost to realise this electricity efficiency potential is estimated to 5.8 million USD, mostly in the residential sector with 70 percent. Over the period 2012 to 2020, the total investment cost of USD 46.4 million is largely compensated by the net (negative) abatement cost of USD 2,300 million. Table 25: Electricity Efficiency Potential Abatement Investment Costs by End-Use Sectors and EE Technologies for Lebanon over the Period 2012-2020 Net Sectors/EE Electricity Efficiency Investment Cost (3) abatement technologies Potential cost (2) Total of subsector By EE technology (2) (1) ktoe/y ktoe/y USD/toe M USD/y M USD/y Industry 45,4 35,0 -70,3 Efficient compressed 35,0 220 7,7 -70,3 air Tertiary 29,7 9,6 1,6 -90,6 SWH* 9,6 170 1,6 -90,6 Residential 139,2 48,4 4,1 -217,6 Housekeeping 24,5 120 2,9 -100,5 Efficient lighting 23,9 50 1,2 -117,1 TOTAL 214,3 93,1 5,8 -378,6 Total without SWH 83,4 4,1 -288,0 % of total Electricity Efficiency 38,9% Potential Notes: * SWH is not listed in the EE potential estimation by subsector but covered here Sources: (1) Study estimations for 2020 based on 2012-2020 annual variation (see Task on EE potential) (2) Data for 2020. Budget Allocation Chart (BAC), MED-ENEC and MED-EMIP, 2010 77 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential (3) Energy efficiency in Building sector of the South Mediterranean countries , Plan Bleu, 2012 Table 26: Electricity Efficiency Potential and Net Abatement Cost by EE technologies for Lebanon over the Period 2012-2020 Electricity Efficiency Sectors/EE technologies Net abatement cost Potential ktoe/y M USD/y Efficient compressed air 35,0 -70,3 SWH 9,6 -90,6 Housekeeping 24,5 -100,5 Efficient lighting 23,9 -117,1 TOTAL 93,1 -378,6 4.7.7 Reductions in energy expenditures and avoided investment The main results in terms of sectoral and technology reductions in electricity expenditures and avoidable electricity capacity investments are presented in Table 27. Table 27: Reductions In Electricity Expenditures and Avoided Power Investments for Lebanon over the Period 2012-2020 Sectors/EE Reductions in Avoidable technologies Electricity Efficiency electricity electricity Potential expenditures capacity (a) investments (b) Total of By EE M USD subsector technology M USD/y MW (c) (1) (2) ktoe/y ktoe/y Industry 45,4 35,0 64,5 79,0 87,0 Efficient 35,0 51,8 62,0 68,2 compressed air Tertiary 29,7 9,6 12,7 17,1 18,8 SWH 9,6 108,0 129,2 142,1 Residential 139,2 48,4 71,7 85,7 94,3 Housekeeping 24,5 36,3 43,4 47,7 Efficient lighting 23,9 172,5 208,2 229,0 TOTAL 214,3 93,1 148,9 181,9 200,0 Total without SWH 83,4 78 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential % of total Electricity Efficiency 38,9% 8,1% Potential Notes (a) based on average avoided electricity cost in 2020: low voltage: 0,098 €/kWh or 1,481 USD/toe; medium voltage: 0,087 €/kWh or 1,315 USD/toe (BAC Lebanon, 2020) (b) based on average electricity usage (hours/year)-without available data, hypothesis: similar to power plant time usage-around 5,000 h/y (2012) Power plant time usage: 6 566 (hours/year) (c) based on average investment cost of combined cycle (CCGT) of 85 0€/kW or 1,100 USD/kW (sources: IEA ETSAP, Fraunhofer Institut) The electricity efficiency potential would materialise for end-customers in a reduction of their electricity expenditures of USD 149 million every year over the period 2012-2020. On the power generation side, the electricity efficiency potential corresponds to an avoidable capacity of 182 MW or around 8 percent of Lebanon’s existing installed power capacity (without private generation). Such avoided new investment on power capacities would be equivalent to USD 200 million (using CCGT technology). Cumulating both consumption and supply savings, Lebanon would then save every year above USD 350 million or 1.1% of its actual GDP at current price. 79 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.8 Libya 4.8.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand Libya produces natural gas and crude oil, with a significantly higher proportion of crude oil. Most of the crude oil produced is exported (88 percent in 2012 compared to 73 percent in 2000). Libya imports oil products and a relatively small quantity of electricity, while its exports include crude oil, natural gas, and oil products. It is worth mentioning that during the Libyan revolution in 2011, the oil industry witnessed a sudden drop in production and exports of crude oil and natural gas due to security issues. However, the sector quickly recovered in 2012 with the resumption of production and exports, albeit at a lower level than in 2010. Primary energy available for consumption in Libya amounted to 17,144 ktoe in 2012 compared to 15,903 ktoe in 2000. The main fuels used for electricity generation are natural gas and oil products. Available data shows a steady increase in the use of natural gas between 2000 and 2012, where its use increased from 860 ktoe in 2000 to 3,401 ktoe in 2012. On the other hand, electricity generation doubled between in that period to reach 2,922 ktoe. Final energy consumed in Libya by end-use sectors depends on oil products, electricity, and natural gas. Although the variation is minimal between 2000 and 2012 (9,388 ktoe in 2000 and 10,461 ktoe in 2012), we can say that the political situation shift in 2011 had a significant impact on the energy use sector. Figure 67 shows the variation between the various sectors and their energy consumption intensity between 2000 and 2012. The largest energy-consuming sector in Libya was the transport sector (increasing from 54 percent in 2000 to 66 percent in 2012), followed by residential (decreasing from 22 percent to 15 percent in 2012), industrial (decreasing from 22 to 12 percent in 2012) and tertiary and agriculture and fishing sectors representing 5 and 2 percent, respectively. Figure 67: Libya Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2011, Percentage Energy Use by Sector 2000 Energy Use by Sector 2012 0% 2% 5% 2% Industry sector Industry sector 12% 22% 22% Transport sector Transport 15% sector Residential Residential sector sector Tertiary sector Tertiary sector 54% 66% Agriculture & Agriculture & fishing sector fishing sector 80 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.8.2 Energy Demand Outlook, Figure 68: Libya Energy Use by Sector 2020 2020 Total energy consumption will decrease 1% from 10,461 ktoe in 2012 to 10,220 in Industry sector 5% 8% 2020. Electricity generation is projected 10% to increase during the same period to Transport sector reach 55,090 GWh. Residential sector Energy consumption by end-use sectors will be allocated in 2020, as follows: 76 Tertiary sector percent for transport, 10 percent for 76% residential, 8 percent for industrial, 5 Agriculture & fishing sector percent for tertiary, and 1 percent for agriculture and fishing. The transport sector is estimated to consume a total of 7,451 ktoe in 2020 Figure 69: Libya Final Energy Consumption for (compared to 5,642 ktoe in 2012), End-use Sectors, ktoe residential 1,033 ktoe (compared to 10,000 1,307 ktoe in 2012), industrial 779 ktoe 8,000 (compared to 1,001 ktoe in 2012), tertiary 524 ktoe (compared to 464 ktoe 6,000 for 2012) and agriculture and fishing 65 4,000 ktoe (compared to 128 ktoe in 2012). 2,000 4.8.3 Energy Outlook 2025 0 Energy consumption by the end-use sectors is estimated to increase slightly Industry sector Transport sector between 2012 and 2025, from 10,461 Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector ktoe to 11,652 ktoe, while electricity generation is estimated to increase Figure 70: Libya Energy Use by Sector 2025 during the same period to 74,512 ktoe. 1% Industry sector 5% 6% A large shuffle in the sectoral breakdown 8% Transport sector of energy consumed in Libya is estimated to occur by 2025. The energy Residential consumption of the transport sector is sector expected to increase by 4 percent in Tertiary sector 2012, industrial and residential sectors to 80% decrease by 2 percent each, and tertiary Agriculture & and agriculture and fishing sector are to fishing sector remain stable. In terms of energy consumption in physical units, the transport sector will slightly increase from 5,642 ktoe in 2012 to 8,866 ktoe in 2025. The industry sector energy consumption will decrease from 1,001 ktoe in 2012 to 667 ktoe in 2025, and the residential sector will also 81 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential decrease from 1,231 to 961 ktoe. The tertiary sector will increase from 464 ktoe to 565 ktoe in 2025 and the agriculture and fishing sector will decrease from 128 to 42 ktoe. Figure 71: Libya Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe 1,800 10,000 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 8,000 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 6,000 1,000 800 800 4,000 600 600 400 2,000 400 200 200 0 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 900 300 800 700 250 600 200 500 400 150 300 100 200 100 50 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 82 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.8.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied amounted to 17,144 ktoe in 2012, compared to 15,903 ktoe in 2000, of which 61 percent was consumed by end-use sectors. The total EE potential for Libya for 2012 was 3,650 ktoe,20 of which 36 percent was for the electricity sector and 64 percent for the end-use sectors. The highest EE potential in the end-use sectors was transport at 27 percent, followed by residential at 20 percent, tertiary at 10 percent, industry at 7 percent, and agriculture and fishing at 0.4 percent. Table 28: Libya EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 Figure 72: Libya EE Potential, 2012 EE Potential, ktoe, Electricity Sector 2012 sector 0.36% Industry Electricity Sector 1,313 End-Use Sectors 2.336 20% Transport 36% Industry 239 10% Tertiary Transport 982 27% Residential Residential 720 Tertiary 383 7% Agriculture Agriculture and Fishing 13 & fishing TOTAL 3,650 21% of TPES S 4.8.4.1 Electricity Generation Total electricity generation amounted to 2,922 ktoe in 2012, at an annual increase of 6.2 percent since 2000. Power generation efficiency was 37 percent for 2011. The country- tailored benchmark was set at 49 percent based on the sector situation, hypothesis (switch of oil-fuelled steam and CC plants to CCGT with 60 percent efficiency), and international references, which estimated the EE potential of 874 ktoe. The specific consumption of power generation was 207 toe/GWh in 2012. The transmission and distribution electricity losses were 26 percent for 2012, with 8 percent for the losses of transmission and 18 percent for distribution losses. Sub-regional benchmarks were used to estimate the EE potential for the transmission losses at 146 ktoe in 2012 and 293 ktoe for distribution losses during the same year. The EE potential for the electricity sector was estimated, in terms of primary energy, at 1,313 ktoe for 2012. 4.8.4.2 4.8.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The final energy intensity of the industry sector was 0.52 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. Due to lack of specific energy consumption of industries, the EE potential in terms of final energy, was 192 ktoe for 2012, using a country-tailored benchmark based on the structure of the 20Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 83 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential sector, its evolution, and country performances. The EE potential consists of almost 19 percent of total energy consumed by the industry sector. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 47 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 239 ktoe. The average emission factor was 3.7 teCO2/toe in 2012, decreasing from 3.9 teCO2/toe in 2000. The CO2 intensity of the industry sector was 2 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2012, compared to 3.2 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2000. ii. Transport The EE potential in terms of final energy was 982 ktoe in 2012 for the transport sector (road transport data available only), using a benchmark based on Jordan’s percentage of the EE potential for the transport sector. The EE potential consisted of 17 percent of total energy consumed by the transport sector in 2012. The average emission factor was 2.91 teCO2/toe in 2012 while the CO2 intensity was 0.3 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2012. iii. Tertiary The energy intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.042 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. The EE potential of the tertiary sector in terms of final energy, based on energy intensity, and the country-tailored benchmark from the Plan Bleu study, estimated the EE potential to be 130 ktoe in 2012, 28 percent of total energy consumed in the tertiary sector. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 253 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 383 ktoe. iv. Residential The energy intensity of the residential sector amounted to 0.094 toe/1,000 USD in 2012 and the specific consumption of energy per unit area was 13.1 kgoe/m2/yr in 2012. Using the specific consumption of energy per unit area and the country-tailored benchmark set by the Plan Bleu study, the EE potential for the residential sector, in terms of final energy, was 452 ktoe, 35 percent of total energy consumed by the residential sector. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 270 ktoe. This added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 722 ktoe. The unit consumption of energy per dwelling was 1,182 kgoe/Dw (down from 1,688 kgoe/Dw in 2000) while the unit consumption of electricity per dwelling amounted to 4,229 Kwh/Dw in 2012. The average emission factor was 4.9 teCO2/toe in 2012 while the CO2 intensity was 0.5 teCO2/1,000 USD the same year. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The EE potential of the agriculture and fishing sector in terms of final energy was 13 ktoe in 2012, using the energy intensity of agriculture of 0.22 toe/1,000 USD in 2010, a country- tailored benchmark based on estimations at 0.2 toe/1,000 USD, and energy consumption of 84 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential the sector for 2012. Data for fishing was not available to inform in the EE potential for Libya. The EE potential represented 10 percent of total energy consumed by the agriculture and fishing sector in 2012. 4.8.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 was 4,409 ktoe and 5,125 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential represents 37 percent of total TPES. Figure 73 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential while Figure 74 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 73: Libya Projected EE Potential, 2025 Figure 74: Libya EE Potential 2012-2025 100% 0.08% 1. ELECTRICITY 90% SECTOR 80% 10% 70% Industry 9% 60% 50% Transport 40% 48% 30% Tertiary 20% 30% 10% Residential 0% EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL 2012 2020 2025 Agriculture & 3% fishing 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 85 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.9 Morocco 4.9.1 Overview of Energy Demand and Supply Total energy production in Morocco was 285 ktoe in 2012, mainly from natural gas, crude oil, hydropower, and renewable electricity. The country heavily relies on imports of coal, natural gas, crude oil, oil products, and electricity. Total imports amounted to 19,301 ktoe in 2012, compared to 11,282 ktoe in 2000. The largest imports are those of oil products, amounting to almost 48 percent of total imports in 2012, followed by crude oil at 28 percent, 16 percent for coal, 5.7 percent for natural gas, and 2.5 percent for electricity. The country exported oil products only during the period under review, where exports decreased from 1,472 ktoe in 2000 to 1,056 ktoe in 2012. In 2012, fuel input for electricity generation came from coal (54 percent of total fuel consumed for electricity generation), from oil products (28 percent), and from natural gas (18 percent). Final energy consumed amounted to 14,032 ktoe in 2012, an increase of 80 percent from 2000. The most used energy by end-use sectors in 2012 was oil products at 75 percent, followed by electricity at 17 percent, natural gas at 0.5 percent, and coal at 0.1 percent. The largest energy-consuming sector was the transport sector at a consumption rate of 5,334 ktoe in 2012, compared to 2,528 ktoe in 2000, followed by industry at 3,051 ktoe in 2012 compared to 1,887 ktoe in 2000; residential at 2,985 ktoe in 2012, compared to 1,224 ktoe in 2000; agriculture and fishing at 1,025 ktoe in 2012, compared to 1,359 ktoe; and tertiary at 540 ktoe in 2012, compared to 257 ktoe in 2000. Of the end-use sectors, 41 percent of total energy was consumed by the transport sector, 24 percent by industry, 23 percent by residential, 8 percent by agriculture and fishing, and 4 percent by tertiary. Figure 75: Morocco Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage Energy Use by Sector, 2000 Energy Use by Sector, 2012 4% 8% 19% 3% 26% 24% 23% 17% 35% 41% Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 86 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.9.2 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 Figure 76: Morocco Energy Use by Sector Total electricity generation will reach 2020 43,480 GWh in 2020, compared to 27,337 Industry 4% 4% sector GWh in 2012. Total energy consumption by end-use sectors is estimated to reach Transport 21% sector 21,115 ktoe in 2020 with the following Residential distribution by sector: 44 percent for 27% sector transport, 27 percent for residential, 21 Tertiary percent for industry, and tertiary, and sector 44% agriculture and fishing at 4 percent each. Agriculture & fishing The transport sector will consume 8,445 sector ktoe in 2020 compared to 5,334 ktoe in Figure 77: Final Energy Consumption for End- 2012, while residential will consume 5,167 use Sectors ktoe in 2020 compared to 2,985 ktoe, 12,000 industry consume 4,101 ktoe compared to 3,051 ktoe, and tertiary 853 ktoe 9,000 compared to 540 ktoe. The agriculture and fishing sector is estimated to decrease 6,000 consumption from 1,025 ktoe in 2012 to 3,000 862 ktoe in 2020. 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Industry Transport 4.9.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 Residential Tertiary Agriculture & fishing Energy consumption by end-use sectors is estimated to reach 27,226 ktoe in 2025, compared to 14,032 ktoe in 2012. Figure 78: Morocco Energy Use by Sector 2025 Electricity generation is projected to 4% 3% Industry sector reach 57,296 GWh in 2025, compared to 27,337 in 2012. 20% Transport sector Sectoral energy consumption is expected 29% Residential to be distributed in 2025 as follows: 44 sector percent for transport (compared to 41 Tertiary sector 44% percent in 2012), 29 percent for residential (compared to 23 percent), 20 Agriculture & fishing sector percent for industry (compared to 24 percent), 4 percent for tertiary (compared to 4 percent), and 3 percent for agriculture and fishing (compared to 8 percent). In physical units, total energy consumed in 2025 will be 11,099 ktoe for transport, 7,160 ktoe for residential, 4,888 ktoe for industry, 1,119 ktoe for tertiary, and 777 ktoe for agriculture and fishing. In 2012, sectoral energy consumption was 5,334 ktoe for transport, 3,051 ktoe for industry, 2,985 ktoe for residential, 1,025 ktoe for agriculture and fishing, and 540 ktoe for tertiary. 87 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 79: Morocco Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe 6,000 12,000 8,000 5,000 10,000 7,000 6,000 4,000 8,000 5,000 3,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 4,000 3,000 1,000 2,000 2,000 0 1,000 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 1,200 2,000 1,000 800 1,500 600 1,000 400 200 500 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 88 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.9.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied increased from 9,689 ktoe in 2000 to 17,522 ktoe in 2012, with an annual increase of 4.7 percent, of which 80 percent was consumed by end-use sectors. The total EE potential was 4,890 ktoe21 in 2012, with 25 percent of EE potential for the electricity sector and 75 percent for the end-use sector. The EE potential represented 28 percent of total primary energy supply in 2012. The end-use sector with the most EE potential was the residential sector (27 percent), followed by the transport sector (25 percent), industry (17 percent), agriculture and fishing (3 percent) and tertiary (3 percent). Table 29: Morocco EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 Figure 80: Morocco EE Potential, 2012 EE Potential, Sector ktoe, 2012 3% Electricity Sector 1,226 Electricity sector 25% End-Use Sectors 3,738 27% Industry Industry 858 Transport Transport (2011) 1,233 Tertiary Residential 1,347 17% Residential 3% Tertiary 135 Agriculture & fishing Agriculture and Fishing 165 25% TOTAL 4,964 28% of TPES s 4.9.4.1 Electricity Generation Electricity generation amounted to 2,351 ktoe in 2012, at an annual variation of 6.0 percent since 2000. The power generation efficiency was 35 percent in 2012. Using a country- tailored benchmark of 56 percent, the EE potential was 1,160 ktoe for power generation in 2012. The specific consumption of power generation was 204 toe/GWh in 2012. The transmission and distribution losses were 12.8 percent, of which 4 percent for transmission losses and 8.8 percent for distribution losses. A sub-regional benchmark was used for the transmission losses (3 percent) while a country-tailored benchmark was used for distribution losses based on the progress made in grid investment and management (7 percent). The EE potential was 66 ktoe for transmission and distribution losses in 2012, of which 24 ktoe for transmission and 42 ktoe for distribution losses, respectively. The total EE potential for the electricity sector in terms of primary energy was 1,226 ktoe in 2012. 21Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 89 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.9.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry Final energy intensity of the industry sector was 0.167 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. A country- tailored benchmark based on the structure of the industrial sector, its evolution, and other country performances, was set at 0.135 toe/1,000 USD. This estimated the EE potential in terms of final energy at 578 ktoe for the industry sector, which represented 19 percent of total energy consumed by this sector. Out of the nine energy-intensive sectors, data was only available for cement, with the EE potential estimated at 266 ktoe in 2009. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 280 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 858 ktoe. The average emissions factor of the industry sector was 4.8 teCO2/toe in 2012, compared to 4.2 teCO2/toe in 2000. In addition, the CO2 intensity of the industry sector was 0.8 teCO2/1,000 USD for 2012, a decrease of 9 percent from 2000. ii. Transport The final energy intensity of the transport sector was 0.07 toe/1,000 USD in 2011, while the average energy unit consumption of gasoline cars was 1,405 kgoe/car/yr in 2011 and 1,954 kgoe/car/yr in 2011. Using the EE regional benchmark based on three MENA countries and specific consumption of gasoline and diesel cars data, the EE potential in terms of final energy was 1,233 ktoe, with 289 ktoe for the average energy unit consumption of gasoline cars and 944 ktoe for the average unit consumption of diesel cars. The EE potential represented 23 percent of total energy consumed by the sector in 2011. The average emissions factor for the transport sector was 2.9 teCO2/toe in 2011, while the CO2 intensity of the transport sector amounted to 0.2 teCO 2/1,000 USD for 2011. The motorization rate in Morocco was 15.3 persons per vehicle in 2011. iii. Tertiary The final energy intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.014 toe/1,000 USD in 2011. The country-tailored benchmark was 0.013, and the total energy consumed by this sector in 2012, the estimation of the EE potential, in terms of final energy, was 12 percent, or 65 ktoe for the tertiary sector. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was equivalent to 71 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 135 ktoe. The average emission factor of the tertiary sector was 6.4 teCO2/toe in 2011, while the CO2 intensity of the sector was 0.1 teCO2/1,000 USD the same year. iv. Residential The intensity of the residential sector was 0.046 toe/1,000 USD in 2011, while the specific consumption of energy per unit area at 4.02 kgoe/m2/yr, Based on the Plan Bleu study, a 90 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential country-tailored benchmark was set at 2.7, and the total energy consumed by this sector in 2012, the estimated EE potential in terms of final energy was 982 ktoe for the residential sector based on the specific consumption of energy. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 365 ktoe. This added to the EE potential in final energy, estimated as the total EE potential for the sector at 1,347 ktoe. In Morocco, the consumption of energy per dwelling was 322 kgoe/Dw in 2011 while the consumption of electricity per dwelling was 1,305 Kwh/Dw. In addition, the CO 2 intensity of the residential sector amounted to 0.2 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2011, while the average emission factor was 4.4 teCO2/toe. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The EE potential for the agriculture sector was 146 ktoe in 2012, based on a country- tailored benchmark drawn from estimations and energy intensity of agriculture. This figure was 19 ktoe for 2010 for the fishing sector based on country-tailored benchmark and specific consumption for fishing. The total EE potential for the agriculture and fishing sector, in terms of final energy, was 165 ktoe in 2012. 4.9.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 amounts to 7,770 ktoe and 10,362 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential represents 19 percent of TPES. Figure 81 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 82 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 81: Morocco Projected EE Potential, Figure 82: Morocco EE Potential 2012-2025 2025 100% 1% 90% 80% 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 70% 26% 60% 32% Industry 50% Transport 40% 30% Tertiary 20% 13% Residential 10% 0% 3% Agriculture & fishing EE POTENTIAL 2012 EE POTENTIAL 2020 EE POTENTIAL 2025 25% 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 91 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.9.6 Cost of conserved energy Table 30 below lists the available data on the electricity efficiency potential abatement cost curve for Morocco in 2020. It provides a combined estimation of electricity efficiency potential and net abatement cost by end-use sectors for a set of EE technologies. The total cost-effective electricity efficiency potential (293 ktoe) accounts for 36 percent of the total identified electricity efficiency potential. The residential sector accounts for 47 percent of this total with 4 EE technologies and SWH. Tertiary with street lighting and SWH is the second largest sector with 30 percent followed by the industry with 23 percent (with only one technology: compressed air). The needed annual investment cost to realise this electricity efficiency potential is estimated to USD 41 million, mostly in the residential sector with 46 percent. Compressed air would account for the largest share of this investment cost with 36 percent of total. Over the period 2012 to 2020, the total investment cost of USD 328 million is largely compensated by the net (negative) abatement cost of USD 3,116 million. Table 30: Electricity Efficiency Potential Abatement Investment Costs by End-Use Sectors and EE Technologies for Morocco over the Period 2012-2020 Electricity Sectors/EE Investment Cost Net abatement Efficiency technologies (c) cost (b) Potential Total of By EE technology subsector (b) (a) ktoe/y ktoe/y USD/toe M USD/y M USD/y Industry 263,5 67,9 14,9 -58,2 Compressed air 67,9 220,0 14,9 -58,2 Tertiary 66,4 87,7 7,0 -61,4 Street lighting 67,1 140,0 3,5 -3,5 SWH* 20,6 170 3,5 -57,9 Residential 343,6 137,4 19,0 -385,1 Housekeeping 24,9 120 3,0 -76,4 Efficient lighting 30,9 120 3,7 -51,4 Efficient washing machines 24,1 170 4,1 -198,0 Efficient fridges 26,6 170 4,5 -2,1 SWH* 31,0 120 3,7 -57,2 TOTAL 673,5 293,1 41,0 -504,7 Total without SWH 241,5 33,8 -389,6 % of total Electricity Efficiency 35,9% Potential Notes * SWH is not listed in the EE potential estimation by subsector but covered here Sources 92 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential (a) Study estimations for 2020 based on 2012-2020 annual variation (see Task on EE potential) (b) Data for 2020. Budget Allocation Chart (BAC), MED-ENEC and MED-EMIP, 2010 (c) Energy efficiency in Building sector of the South Mediterranean countries , Plan Bleu, 2012 Table 31: Electricity Efficiency Potential and Net Abatement Cost by EE Technologies for Morocco over the Period 2012-2020 Electricity Efficiency EE technologies Net abatement cost Potential ktoe/y M USD/y Compressed air 67,9 -58,2 Street lighting 67,1 -3,5 SWH 20,6 -57,9 Housekeeping 24,9 -76,4 Efficient lighting 30,9 -51,4 Efficient washing machines 24,1 -198,0 Efficient fridges 26,6 -2,1 SWH (residential) 31,0 -57,2 TOTAL 293,1 -504,7 4.9.7 Reductions in energy expenditures and avoided investments The main results in terms of sectoral and technology reductions in electricity expenditures and avoidable electricity capacity investments are presented in Table 32. Table 32: Reductions in Electricity Expenditures and Avoided Power Investments for Morocco over the Period 2012-2020 Reductions in Avoidable Sectors/EE electricity Electricity Efficiency Potential electricity capacity technologies expenditures investments (b) (a) Total of By EE M USD M USD/y MW subsector (1) technology (2) (c) ktoe/y ktoe/y Industry 263,5 67,9 59,5 193,4 212,7 Compressed air 67,9 59,5 193,4 212,7 Tertiary 66,4 87,7 320,8 1 032,1 1 135,3 Street lighting 67,1 58,8 190,9 210,0 SWH 20,6 18,1 58,8 64,6 Residential 343,6 137,4 120,4 391,2 430,3 Housekeeping 24,9 22,6 71,0 78,1 93 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Efficient lighting 30,9 28,0 87,9 96,7 Efficient washing machines 24,1 21,8 68,5 75,4 Efficient fridges 26,6 24,1 75,6 83,2 SWH 31,0 27,1 88,1 96,9 TOTAL 329,9 293,1 380,3 1 225,4 1 348,0 Total without 194,2 SWH % of total Electricity Efficiency 58,9% 18,3% Potential / Installed capacity Notes (a) based on average avoided electricity cost in 2020: low voltage: 0,06 €/kWh or 906 USD/toe; medium voltage: 0,058 €/kWh or 876 USD/toe (BAC Morocco, 2020) (b) based on average electricity usage (hours/year)-without available data, hypothesis: similar to power plant time usage-around 5,000 h/y (2012) Power plant time usage (hours/year): 4 085 (c) based on average investment cost of combined cycle (CCGT) of 850€/kW or 1,100 USD/kW (sources: IEA ETSAP, Fraunhofer Institut) The table above indicates that the electricity efficiency potential for end-customers would be equivalent to an annual reduction of USD 380 million of their electricity bills over the period 2012-2020. On the power generation side, the electricity efficiency potential corresponds to an annual avoidable capacity of 1,225 MW (equivalent to the projected coal-fired power plant of Safi of 1,320 MW and thus to be one the largest in the country) or around 12 percent of Morocco’s existing installed power capacity. Avoiding such new investment on power capacities would annually save USD 1,350 million (using CCGT technology). Cumulating both consumption and supply savings, Morocco would then save every year above USD 1,730 million or 1.9 percent of its actual GDP at current price. 94 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.10 Oman Total energy production was 75,774 ktoe in 2012, compared to 60,451 ktoe in 2000. Energy was produced from natural gas and crude oil sources, with 65 percent from crude oil and 35 from natural gas. Oman imported oil products only up through 2008, when the country started importing natural gas. Natural gas amounted to 1,735 ktoe in 2012. Eighty seven percent of the energy production was exported in 2000, a figure that decreased to 70 percent in 2012. The main electricity-producing fuels are natural gas and oil products, with 98 percent from natural gas and 2 percent from oil products in 2012. Total electricity generated increased from 784 ktoe in 2000 to 2,151 ktoe in 2012. Final energy consumption by end-use sectors increased from 2,614 ktoe in 2000 to 19,205 ktoe in 2012. In 2000, the largest energy-consuming sector was industry, followed by transport, residential, and tertiary, respectively. In 2012, the industry sector was the largest energy-consuming sector, followed by transport, residential, tertiary, and agriculture and fishing, respectively (Figure 83). Figure 83: Oman Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage Energy Use by Sector Energy Use by Sector 2000 2012 4% 0.14% 8% Industry Industry sector sector 6% 14% Transport 43% Transport sector sector 23% Residential sector Residential sector 35% 67% Tertiary sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 95 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.10.1 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 The distribution of energy consumption Figure 84: Oman Energy Use by Sector 2020 sectors for 2020 is as follows: 68 percent for the industry sector (compared to 67 3% 0.13% percent in 2012), 24 percent for 5% Industry sector transport sector (compared to 23 percent), 5 percent for residential sector Transport sector (compared to 6 percent), and 3 percent 24% for tertiary sector (compared to 4 Residential sector percent). 68% Tertiary sector The total energy consumption by end-use Agriculture & fishing sectors will increase from 19,205 ktoe in sector 2012 to 44,671 ktoe in 2020. The energy consumption by sector for 2020 will be 25,760 ktoe for industry, 9,094 ktoe for transport, 1,841 ktoe for residential, Figure 85 : Oman final Energy Consumption for End-use Sectors, ktoe 1,221 ktoe for tertiary, and 48 ktoe for agriculture and fishing. 50,000 F 40,000 The generation of electricity will also 30,000 increase, from 25,012 GWh in 2012 to 46,562 GWh in 2020. 20,000 10,000 0 4.10.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 The total energy consumption by the end-use sector will reach 75,895 ktoe in Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector 2025, compared to 19,205 ktoe in 2012, while electricity generation is estimated to reach 68,662 GWh in Figure 86: Oman Energy Use by Sector 2025 2025. 3% 0.12% The distribution of energy consumption 4% by sectors is projected for 2025 to be Industry sector 68 percent for industry, 25 percent for Transport sector transport, 4 percent for residential, 3 percent for tertiary, and 0.12 percent 25% Residential sector for agriculture and fishing. Tertiary sector Total energy consumed for the 68% transport sector is projected to reach Agriculture & fishing 43,363 ktoe in 2025, compared to sector 11,196 ktoe in 2012, 15,786 ktoe for industry compared to 3,763 ktoe, 2,709 ktoe for residential compared to 993 ktoe, and 1,866 ktoe for the tertiary sector compared to 620 ktoe. 96 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 87: Oman Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe 50,000 18,000 3,000 45,000 16,000 2,500 40,000 14,000 35,000 12,000 2,000 30,000 10,000 25,000 1,500 8,000 20,000 6,000 1,000 15,000 10,000 4,000 500 5,000 2,000 0 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 2,000 90 80 1,500 70 60 1,000 50 40 30 500 20 10 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 97 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.10.3 Energy Efficiency Potential The total primary energy supplied in Oman was 26,320 ktoe in 2012, compared to 7,701 ktoe in 2000, a threefold increase during the above-mentioned period, of which 73 percent of energy was consumed by end-use sectors. The total EE potential for Oman was 6,128 ktoe22 in 2012, of which 22 percent was for the electricity sector and 78 percent for the end-use sector. The industry sector has the highest estimated EE potential at 43 percent, followed by transport at 15 percent, 11 percent for residential, 9 percent for tertiary, and 0.05 percent for agriculture and fishing. The total EE potential represented 23 percent of total primary energy supplied in 2012. Table 33: Oman EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 Figure 88: Oman EE Potential, 2012 EE potential, Sector ktoe, 2012 0.05% Electricity Electricity Sector 1,361 sector 11% 22% End-Use Sectors 4,767 9% Industry Industry 2,633 15% Transport Transport 940 Residential 674 43% Tertiary Tertiary 516 Residential Agriculture and Fishing 3 TOTAL 6,128 Agriculture & fishing 23% of TPES 4.10.3.1 Electricity Generation Total electricity generated in Oman increased from 784 ktoe in 2000 to 2,151 ktoe in 2012. The power generation efficiency amounted to 34 percent in 2012. A country-tailored benchmark was set at 52 percent based on the sector situation, hypothesis (switch of steam plants & GT to CCGT with 60 percent efficiency), and international references, which estimated the EE potential for power generation at 1,176 ktoe. The specific consumption of power generation was 256 toe/GWh in 2012. The total transmission and distribution losses were calculated at 13.6 percent in 2012, with 4.5 percent for transmission losses and 9.1 percent for distribution losses. Based on the sub-regional benchmarks, the EE potential is 54 ktoe for transmission losses and 186 ktoe for distribution losses. The total EE potential for the electricity sector, in terms of primary energy, was 1,361 ktoe in 2012. 4.10.3.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry 22Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 98 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential The total energy intensity of the industry was 2.447 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. The EE potential in 2012, in terms of final energy, was 2,503 ktoe based on the country-tailored benchmark of 1.9 toe/1,000 USD and the energy intensity of the sector. The EE potential represented 22 percent of total energy consumed by the industry sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 130 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 2,633 ktoe. The average emission factor for the sector was 2.7 teCO2/toe in 2012, while the CO2 intensity was 6.6 teCO2/1,000 USD. ii. Transport The total EE potential for the transport sector, in terms of final energy, was 25 percent of total energy consumed by the sector, amounting to 941 ktoe in 2012. The average emissions factor of the sector was 2.9 teCO2/toe while the CO2 intensity of the sector was 0.24 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2012. iii. Tertiary The energy intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.032 toe/1,000 USD in 2011. A country- tailored benchmark was set at 0.023 toe/1,000 USD, based on a regional study and building audits. The EE potential for the sector in terms of final energy was 174 ktoe, using energy consumed by the sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was equivalent to 343 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 516 ktoe. The average emission factor of the sector was 10.9 teCO2/toe in 2012 and the CO2 intensity was 0.38 teCO2/1,000 USD. iv. Residential The EE potential for the residential sector, in terms of final energy, was 25 percent of the total energy consumed by the sector at 248 ktoe in 2012, based on set of GCC and individual audits, studies, and expert analysis. Data for the energy intensity and specific consumption of the sector were not available. The final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 426 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 674 ktoe. The average emission factor of the sector was 9.8 teCO 2/toe in 2012. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The total EE potential for the agriculture and fishing sector in terms of final energy was 3 ktoe in 2012, using the energy intensity of agriculture in 2011 at 0.055 toe/1,000 USD, the country-tailored benchmark based on estimations at 0.048 toe/1,000 USD, and the total energy consumption of the sector for 2012. Data for fishing was unavailable to inform the EE potential. 99 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.10.4 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 was 13,063 ktoe and 21,115 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential represents 28 percent of total TPES. Figure 89 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 90 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 89: Oman Projected EE Potential, 2025 Figure 90: Oman EE Potential 2012-2025 0% 100% 1. ELECTRICITY 90% SECTOR 80% 9% 17% Industry 70% 7% 60% 50% Transport 40% 19% 30% 20% Tertiary 10% 0% 48% Residential EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL 2012 2020 2025 Agriculture & fishing 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 100 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.11 Palestine 4.11.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand Palestine is the second MENA country under review that did not have production of energy from fossil sources until 2012, and now produces only geothermal and solar energy. This production amounted to 118 ktoe in 2012, compared to 102 ktoe in 2001. Total imports were 1,142 ktoe, compared to 656 ktoe in 2001. Since energy production is very limited, Palestine relies heavily on the imports of energy, which consists of more than 82 percent of the total primary energy available for consumption. Energy available for consumption amounted to 1,181 ktoe in 2012, while electricity generated in the same year amounted to 40 ktoe, in addition to 422 ktoe of electricity imported. The main conventional source of fuel for electricity production was oil products, of which 137 ktoe were consumed to generate electricity in 2012, compared to 8 ktoe in 2001. Final energy consumed by end-use sectors amounted to 1,297 ktoe in 2012, a 100 percent increase from 2001. The distribution of energy consumed by sector remained relatively stable, with the residential sector consuming the largest quantity of fuel, followed by transport, tertiary, industry, and agriculture and fishing. Total energy consumed in the residential sector in 2011 amounted to 574 ktoe, transport to 305 ktoe, tertiary to 92 ktoe, industry to 68 ktoe, and 5 ktoe for the agriculture and fishing sector. In 2001, residential sector consumed 412 ktoe, transport 129 ktoe, tertiary 55 ktoe, and industrial 51 ktoe. Figure 91: Palestine Energy Use by Sector, 2001 and 2011, Percentage Energy Use by Sector, 2001 Energy Use by Sector, 2011 0% 0.48% 8% 8% 9% 7% 20% 29% 55% 64% Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 101 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.11.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 Figure 92: Palestine Energy Use by Sector 2020 Palestine will consume around 1,552 ktoe 0.33% 5% of energy in 2020, an increase of 49 Industry sector percent from 2011, while electricity 9% Transport generation is expected to amount to 585 sector GWh in the same year, compared to 569 Residential GWh in 2011. 39% sector Tertiary sector 47% In 2020, the residential sector will Agriculture & become the largest energy-consuming fishing sector sector with 47 percent of energy consumption (754 ktoe), followed by Figure 93 : Final Energy Consumption for End- transport at 39 percent (617 ktoe), use Sectors, ktoe tertiary at 9 percent (141 ktoe), industry 1,200 at 5 percent (87 ktoe), and 0.3 percent for agriculture and fishing (5 ktoe). 900 600 300 4.11.3 Energy Outlook 2025 Total energy consumed by the end-use 0 2000 2005 2010 2016 2021 sector will increase by 85 percent Industry Transport between 2011 and 2025, while electricity Residential Tertiary generation is projected to increase by 18 Agriculture & fishing percent. Figure 94: Palestine Energy Use by Sector The transport sector is expected to 2025 5% continue growing, consuming 44 percent Industry 0.26% sector of total energy, followed by residential at 42 percent, 9 percent for tertiary, 5 9% Transport sector percent for industrial and 0.3 percent for Residential agriculture and fishing. sector 44% The transport sector is estimated to grow 42% Tertiary sector from 305 ktoe in 2011 to 895 ktoe in 2025. Also projected to increase over that Agriculture & fishing period are residential from 574 ktoe to sector 870 ktoe, tertiary from 92 ktoe to 176 ktoe, and industry from 68 ktoe to 99 ktoe in 2025. The agriculture and fishing sector is expected to remain stable at 5 ktoe. 102 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 95: Palestine Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe 120 1,200 1,000 100 1,000 800 80 800 600 60 600 400 40 400 20 200 200 0 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 200 6 150 4 100 2 50 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 103 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.11.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied in Palestine was 1,181 ktoe in 2012, compared to 640 ktoe in 2001, of which almost 100 percent was consumed by end-use sectors. The total EE potential in 2011 was 407 ktoe,23 of which 5 percent was for the electricity sector and 95 percent for the end-use sectors. The EE potential consisted of 28 percent of total primary energy supplied in 2011. The end-use sector with the largest EE potential was the residential sector (71 percent), followed by the transport sector (13 percent), tertiary (7 percent), industry (4 percent), and agriculture and fishing (0.05 percent). Table 34: Palestine EE Potential, ktoe, Figure 96: Palestine EE Potential, 2011 2011 EE potential, Sector ktoe, 2011 0.05% 4% Electricity Sector 21 5% (2012) Electricity sector End-Use Sectors 388 13% Industry Industry 18 Transport 7% Transport 53 Tertiary Residential 288 71% Residential Tertiary 28 Agriculture & fishing Agriculture and Fishing 0.2 TOTAL 407 28% of TPES 4.11.4.1 Electricity Generation Palestine generated 40 ktoe of electricity in 2012, at an average annual variation of 11 percent since 2002. The power generation efficiency was 29 percent in 2012. The country- tailored benchmark was set at 40 percent, estimating a power generation EE potential of 15 ktoe in 2012. The specific consumption of power generation was 296 toe/GWh in 2012. Total transmission and distribution loss of electricity was 25 percent in 2012; 6 percent for transmission losses and 19 percent for distribution losses. The sub-regional benchmarks set at 3 percent for transmission losses and 11 percent for distribution losses, have estimated the EE potential at 1 ktoe for the transmission losses and 5 ktoe for the distribution losses. The total EE potential of the electricity sector, in terms of primary energy, was 21 ktoe in 2012. 4.11.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The final energy intensity of the industry sector was 0.088 toe/1,000 USD in 2011. The country-tailored benchmark was set at 0.066 toe/1,000 USD, based on the structure of the industry sector, its evolution, and other country performances. This benchmark provides an estimation of the EE potential for the industry sector, in terms of final energy, at 18 ktoe in 23Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 104 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 2011. This EE potential represented 26 percent of the sector’s total energy consumption in 2011. The average emissions factor of the industry sector was 0.72 teCO2/toe in 2011 while the CO2 intensity emissions factor was 0.06 teCO2/1,000 USD the same year. ii. Transport The final energy intensity of the transport sector was 0.047 toe/1,000 USD in 2011. Using the benchmark based on the total energy consumption of the transport sector and Jordan’s EE potential for personal car share of 17.4 percent, the EE potential for the transport sector, in terms of final energy, was estimated at 53 ktoe for 2011, based solely on road transport information due to missing data regarding maritime and air transports. The average emissions factor of the transport sector was 2.9 teCO2/toe in 2011 while the CO2 intensity emission factor was 0.14 teCO2/1,000 USD the same year. iii. Tertiary The final energy intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.213 toe/1,000 USD in 2009. The EE potential, in terms of final energy, was 28 ktoe using the percentage of the EE potential of Jordan due to lack of reliable data on the value-added of the tertiary sector and the total energy consumption of the sector in 2011. The average emissions factor amounted to 0.59 teCO2/toe in 2009 and the CO2 intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.125 teCO2/1,000 USD in the same year. iv. Residential The intensity of the residential sector was 0.094 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, while the specific consumption of energy per unit area was 11.83 kgoe/m2/yr the same year. Using the country-tailored benchmark based on Jordan EE potential percentage of the residential sector set at 50 percent and the total energy consumption of the residential sector of 2011, the EE potential, in terms of final energy was estimated to be 288 ktoe in 2012. The unit consumption of energy per dwelling was 592 kgoe/Dw in 2012, while the unit consumption of electricity per dwelling was 2,206 Kwh/Dw. The average emissions factor amounted to 1 teCO2/toe in 2012 while the CO2 intensity of the residential sector was 0.183 teCO2/1,000 USD. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The final energy intensity of the agriculture sector was 0.014 ktoe in 2011; however, data was not available for the fishing sector. The EE potential for the agriculture and fishing sector in terms of final energy was 0.8 Ktoe using the percentage of the Jordan EE potential for the agriculture energy intensity. 4.11.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 was 576 ktoe and 671 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was projected based on the annual sectoral variation for 2011 to 2011. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential represents 21 percent of TPES. Figure 97 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 98 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2011, 2020, and 2025. 105 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 97: Palestine Projected EE Potential, Figure 98: Palestine EE Potential 2011- 2025 2025 0% 4% 100% 4% 90% 1. ELECTRICITY 80% SECTOR 70% Industry 60% 50% 22% 40% Transport 30% 20% 62% Tertiary 10% 8% 0% EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL Residential 2011 2020 2025 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 106 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.12 Qatar 4.12.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand Total energy production was 220,380 ktoe in 2012, 64 percent of which from natural gas and 36 percent from crude oil. Qatar is one of two MENA countries that did not import energy products until 2006, when the country started imported small quantities of oil products. Being one of the largest natural gas (LNG) exporting countries in the world, Qatar exported 75 percent of its natural gas production in 2012, or 105,565 ktoe. In 2012, crude oil exports increased by 53 percent to 52,459 ktoe and oil products exports increased to 22,831 ktoe. The total available primary energy for consumption was 37,922 ktoe in 2012, triple that in 2000. A large quantity of oil produced is used in the petrochemical sector, amounting to almost 9 percent of total production. In addition, 4,381 ktoe was used in 2012 for non- energy purposes compared to 2,216 ktoe in 2000, mainly as feedstock in the petrochemical processes. Qatar relies on natural gas for electricity generation, using 2,992 ktoe in 2012 to produce electricity. Electricity constituted 13 percent of total energy consumed in the country that year, along with 32 percent for oil products and 26 percent for natural gas. In 2000, natural gas constituted the most-commonly used energy at 36 percent; 15 percent of electricity was produced from oil products and 10 percent from electricity. Energy consumption by sector went through a large change in the most-consuming sectors. While in 2000 industry was the largest energy-consuming sector at 2,220 ktoe, followed by transport at 812 ktoe, residential at 349 ktoe, and tertiary 113 ktoe, energy consumed in 2012 followed the same trend with the transport sector consuming around 3,522 ktoe, industrial at 6,043 ktoe, residential at 916 ktoe and tertiary at 359 ktoe. Figure 99 : Qatar Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, percentage Energy Use by Sector 2000 Energy Use by Sector 2012 3% 3% 10% 8% 23% 33% 56% 64% Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector 107 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.12.2 Energy Demand Outlook, Figure 100: Qatar Energy Use by Sector 2020 2020 Qatar’s total energy consumption by 3% end-use sectors will be 24,434 ktoe in 9% 2020, increasing from 15,221 in 2012 Industry sector and increasing from 5,710 ktoe in Transport sector 2000. Total electricity generation is 29% Residential sector estimated to reach 79,228 GWh in 59% 2020. Tertiary sector Final energy consumption by these sectors is estimated to increase in 2020. The transport sector will reach Figure 101: Qatar Final Energy Consumption for 11,191 ktoe, industry 5,476 ktoe, End-use Sectors residential 1,659 ktoe, tertiary and 513 20,000 F ktoe. 15,000 It is worth noting that data for energy 10,000 consumption by the agriculture and fishing sector was unavailable. As such, 5,000 this sector is not under review for this 0 country in this study. Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 4.12.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 Qatar’s total energy consumption is Figure 102: Qatar Energy Use by Sector 2025 projected to reach 42,255 ktoe in 2025, 2% when its electricity production is expected to reach 132,515 GWh. 9% The industry sector is estimated to Industry sector become the largest energy-consuming Transport sector sector, amounting to 62 percent of total 27% Residential sector energy consumed, followed by 27 percent 62% Tertiary sector for transport, 9 percent for residential, and 2 percent for tertiary. The industry sector is projected to amount to 16,449 ktoe in 2025, 7,215 ktoe for transport, 2,404 ktoe for residential, and 640 ktoe for tertiary. This is in comparison to 2012, when transport consumed 3,522 ktoe, industrial 6,043 ktoe, residential 916 ktoe, and tertiary 359 ktoe. 108 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 103: Qatar Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe 20,000 8,000 15,000 6,000 10,000 4,000 5,000 2,000 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 Residential, ktoe Tertiary, ktoe 3,000 700 2,500 600 2,000 500 400 1,500 300 1,000 200 500 100 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 109 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.12.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied in Qatar was 37,922 ktoe in 2012, increasing from 10,921 ktoe in 2000, of which 40 percent was consumed by end-use sectors. The total EE potential in 2012 was 4,442 ktoe,24 of which 19 percent was for the electricity sector and 81 percent for end-use sectors. Out of the end-use sectors, the highest EE potential was for industry at 41 percent. The EE potential for the rest of the sectors was 20 percent for transport, 14 percent for residential and 6 percent for tertiary. Data for agriculture and fishing sector was not available to estimate EE potential. The EE potential represented 12 percent of total primary energy supplied in 2012. Table 35: Qatar EE potential, ktoe, 2012 Figure 104: Qatar EE Potential, 2012 EE Potential, Sector ktoe, 2012 Electricity Electricity Sector 847 sector 6% End-Use Sectors 3,595 14% 19% Industry Industry 1,822 20% Transport Transport 881 41% Residential 635 Tertiary Tertiary 258 Residential Agriculture and Fishing … TOTAL 4,442 12% of TPES s 4.12.4.1 Electricity Generation Total electricity generated in Qatar increased from 786 ktoe in 2000 to 2,992 ktoe in 2012. The power generation efficiency was 41 percent in 2012. The country-tailored benchmark was set at 51 percent, based on the sector situation and international references. The power generation EE potential was 750 ktoe in 2012. The specific consumption of power generation was 211 toe/GWh in 2012. The total transmission and distribution electricity losses amounted to 6.2 percent in 2012, with 4.5 percent for transmission losses and 1.7 percent for distribution losses. The set sub- regional benchmark for transmission losses and the country-tailored benchmark for distribution losses estimated the EE potential to be 75 ktoe for transmission losses and 22 ktoe for distribution losses. The total EE potential for the electricity sector was estimated, in terms of primary energy, to be 847 ktoe in 2012. 24Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 110 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.12.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The final energy intensity of the industry sector was 0.63 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. The EE potential in terms of final energy was 1,515 ktoe based on the energy intensity and the country-tailored benchmark derived from the GIOC study, the structure of the sector, its evolution, and other country performances. The EE potential represented 25 percent of total energy consumed by the sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 307 ktoe. This potential added to EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 1,822 ktoe. The average emissions factor of the sector was 3.1 teCO2/toe in 2012, compared to 2.65 teCO2/toe in 2000, while the CO2 intensity of the industry sector was 1.95 teCO 2/1,000 USD in 2012, compared to 2.08 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2000. ii. Transport The EE potential of the transport sector in terms of final energy was 881 ktoe in 2012, based on an estimated EE potential of 25 percent of total energy consumed by the transport sector. The EE potential includes road transport only due to the absence of data for other transportation means (i.e. maritime, air, and railways). The average emissions factor of the transport sector was 2.91 teCO2/toe in 2012 while the CO2 intensity of the sector was 0.08 teCO2/1m000 USD the same year. iii. Tertiary The energy intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.009 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, decreasing from 0.015 toe/1,000 USD in 2000. A country-tailored benchmark was set at 0.007 toe/1,000 USD based on GIOC study, which estimated the total EE potential in terms of final energy to be 105 ktoe for the sector. The EE potential represented 29 percent of total energy consumed by the sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 153 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 256 ktoe. The average emission factor of the tertiary sector was 6.9 teCO2/toe in 2012, while the CO2 intensity of the sector was 0.06 teCO2/1,000 USD the same year. iv. Residential The EE potential of the residential sector in terms of final energy was 281 ktoe in 2012 based on a country-tailored benchmark of 0.004 toe/1,000 USD25 and energy intensity of 0.006 toe/1,000 USD in 2007. The EE potential represented 31 percent of total energy consumed by the sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 354 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE 25 Figure derived froma set of GCC and Qatar individual audits, studies, and expert analysis. 111 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential potential for the sector at 635 ktoe. The average emissions factor of the sector was calculated at 6.4 teCO2/toe in 2012. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector Statistical data related to the energy intensity of the agriculture and fishing sector was unavailable for Qatar. As such, the EE potential could not be assessed. 4.12.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 was 8,176 ktoe and 12,079 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential represents 6 percent of TPES. Figure 105 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 106 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 105: Qatar Projected EE Potential, Figure 106: Qatar EE Potential 2012-2025 2025 100% 90% 80% 1. ELECTRICITY 70% SECTOR 60% 4% 14% Industry 50% 26% 40% 30% Transport 20% 15% 10% 0% Tertiary EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL 2012 2020 2025 41% Residential 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 112 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.13 Saudi Arabia 4.13.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand Saudi Arabia is one of the largest crude oil producing countries, with a total production of 558,780 ktoe in 2012, increasing from 445,057 ktoe in 2000. In addition to crude oil production, the country produced around 66,224 ktoe of natural gas, double from 2000. A large quantity of its crude oil and oil products production is exported (74 percent in 2012). The country imports oil products in relatively low quantities. The country consumed around 67,099 ktoe in the petrochemical sector, an increase of 95 percent in 12 years. Primary energy available for consumption was at 00,249 ktoe for 2012, compared to 97,853 ktoe in 2000. The country does not produce or consume energy from coal or renewable sources. Electricity generation relies on natural gas, crude oil, and oil products. The total fuel input for electricity generation was 73,254 ktoe in 2012, of which 45 percent was from natural gas, 30 percent from crude oil, and 25 percent from oil products. The main energy sources consumed in the country are oil products and electricity. Out of a total consumption of 133,106 ktoe, 59,349 ktoe was from oil products and 19,780 ktoe from electricity in 2012. This is in comparison with 2000, when the country energy consumption was 31,469 ktoe from oil products and 8,513 ktoe from electricity. Saudi Arabia also consumed 53,977 ktoe for non-energy purposes, compared to 23,532 ktoe in 2000. The transport sector was the largest energy-consuming sector, with a 40,303 ktoe consumed in 2012, compared to 20,372 ktoe in 2000, followed by the industrial sector at 20,164 ktoe in 2012 (compared to 10,938 ktoe), residential sector at 11,933 ktoe in 2012 (compared to 6,053 ktoe), tertiary at 6,369 ktoe in 2012 (compared to 2,423 ktoe), and agriculture and fishing at 360 ktoe in 2012 (compared to 195 ktoe). Figure 107: Saudi Arabia Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage Energy Use by Sector 2000 Energy Use by Sector 2012 6% 1% 0% 8% 15% 27% 26% 15% 51% 51% Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 113 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.13.2 Energy Demand Outlook, Figure 108: Saudi Arabia Energy Use by Sector 2020 2020 The total energy consumption by end- 0.43% use sectors is projected to reach Industry sector 210,865 ktoe in 2020, compared to 10% 63,514 ktoe in 2000. 24% Transport sector 15% Total energy used by these sectors is Residential sector estimated to be as follows: 51 percent for the transport sector, 24 percent for Tertiary sector industry, 15 percent for residential, 10 51% Agriculture & fishing percent for tertiary, and 0.4 percent sector for agriculture and fishing. In terms of physical units, 61,331 ktoe is estimated to be consumed by the Figure 109: Saudi Arabia Final Energy transport sector in 2020, 29,379 ktoe Consumption by End-use Sector by industry, 18,119 ktoe by 90,000 F residential, 11,544 ktoe by tertiary 80,000 70,000 and 525 ktoe by agriculture and 60,000 fishing. 50,000 40,000 30,000 4.13.3 Energy Demand Outlook 20,000 10,000 2025 0 Total energy consumption is projected to amount to 281,644 ktoe in 2025, compared with 63,514 ktoe in 2000. Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector The transport sector will consume Agriculture & fishing sector nearly 50 percent of total energy consumed in 2025 (compared to 51 Figure 110: Saudi Arabia Energy Use by Sector percent in 2000), followed by the 2025 industrial sector at 24 percent in 2025 (compared to 27 percent), tertiary 0.42% sector at 11 percent (compared to 6 Industry sector percent), and residential steady at 15 11% percent (compared with the year 2000) 24% Transport sector and the agriculture and fishing sector at 15% 0.42 percent (compared to 1 percent). Residential sector Tertiary sector Total energy consumption is projected in 2025 to be divided by sector as 50% Agriculture & fishing follows: 79,734 ktoe for the transport sector sector, 37,170 ktoe for industry, 23,523 ktoe for residential, 16,740 ktoe for tertiary, and 665 ktoe for agriculture and fishing. 114 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 111: Saudi Arabia Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe 40,000 100,000 25,000 30,000 80,000 20,000 60,000 15,000 20,000 40,000 10,000 10,000 20,000 5,000 0 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 20,000 800 15,000 600 10,000 400 5,000 200 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 115 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.13.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Saudi Arabia is the largest energy-producing, -consuming and -exporting MENA country. Its total primary energy supply reached 200,249 ktoe in 2012, compared to 97,853 ktoe in 2000. The final energy consumption for end-use sectors reached 133,106 ktoe in 2012 and accounts for over 30 percent of that of the entire MENA region. Saudi Arabia’s total EE potential was estimated for 2012 to be 48,900 ktoe,26 of which 31 percent is used by the electricity sector and 69 percent by end-use sectors. The EE potential accounted for 24.4 percent of total primary energy consumption. Within the end-use sectors, transport, and residential account for 23 percent each, industry 16 percent, tertiary 13 percent, and agriculture and fishing 0.1 percent. Table 36: Saudi Arabia EE potential, ktoe, Figure 112: Saudi Arabia 2012 Total EE 2012 Potential EE Potential, Electricity sector Sector ktoe, 2012 0% Industry Electricity Sector 14,946 End-Use Sectors 33,954 21% Transport Industry 7,425 31% Transport 10,495 12% Tertiary Residential 10,219 Tertiary 5,773 15% 21% Residential Agriculture &Fishing 42 TOTAL 48,900 Agriculture & fishing 24 % of TPES 4.13.4.1 Electricity Sector In 2012, electricity generation amounted to 23,364 ktoe for a fuel input of 73,254 ktoe with a power mix made at 45 percent natural gas, 30 percent crude oil and 25 percent oil products. Power generation efficiency was 32 percent during the same year. The country- tailored benchmark for power generation based on best available power technologies and mix (in particular switch from crude oil to natural gas) was 51 percent (or a 19 percent increase), indicating an EE potential for 2012 at 14,069 ktoe. The specific consumption of power generation was at 270 toe/GWh. The transmission and distribution losses of electricity were estimated to be 8.8 percent in 2012, of which transmission losses were 3.5 percent and distribution losses were 5.3 percent. The GCC benchmark was set at 2 percent for transmission losses and 3 percent for the distribution losses, representing an EE potential of 351 ktoe for transmission and 526 ktoe for distribution losses. The EE potential for the electricity sector in terms of primary energy was 14,946 ktoe in 2012, or 31 percent of the total EE potential. 26 Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 116 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.13.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The final energy intensity of the industry sector was 0.364 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, compared to 0.494 toe/1,000 USD in 2000. The EE potential for the sector for 2012 in terms of final energy was 5,746 ktoe, using an energy intensity efficiency, country-tailored benchmark based on the structure of the sector, its evolution and country performances as well as national and GCC references.27 Additionally, the final electricity efficiency potential in the industry sector once converted in primary energy was 1,679 ktoe, making the total EE potential for the industry sector 7,425 ktoe. The average emissions factor of the sector was 11.8 teCO2/toe in 2012, compared to 11.9 teCO2/toe in 2000, while the CO2 intensity of the industry sector was 4.3 teCO 2/1,000 USD in 2012, compared to 5.9 teCO2/1000 USD in 2000. ii. Transport While the final energy intensity of the transport sector was 0.081/1,000 USD in 2012, compared to 0.079 toe/1,000 USD in 2000, no detailed data is available on the number and average energy consumption of private automobiles, information necessary for the indicator average energy unit consumption of cars. The EE potential for transport is based on an overall estimation of the improvement of fuel efficiency standards of 26 percent.28 The total EE potential of the transport sector is 10,495 ktoe. The average emissions factor of the transport sector was 2.9 teCO2/toe in 2012 while the CO2 intensity was 0.24 teCO2/1,000 USD the same year. iii. Tertiary The final energy intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.033 toe/1,000 USD for 2012, compared to 0.027 toe/1,000 USD in 2000. Using an energy-intensity, country-tailored benchmark,29 an EE potential of 28.4 percent was estimated in terms of final energy, equivalent to 1,810 ktoe for the tertiary sector. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential in the tertiary sector once converted in primary energy is equivalent to 3,963 ktoe. The total EE potential for the tertiary sector is 5,773 ktoe in 2012. The average emission factor of the tertiary sector was 9.3 teCO2/toe in 2012 while the CO2 intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.3 teCO 2/1,000 USD. iv. Residential Information on the energy intensity of the residential sector is only available for 2006, when it was 0.064 toe/1,000 USD. Based on various national and regional references,30 the country-tailored benchmark indicates a potential EE gain of 30 percent. Using the sector 27 “Saving Oil and Gas in the Gulf” (Chatham House, 2013) and “Regional Case Study: An Energy Guide Book for Industries in the GCC “(Gulf Organization for Industrial Consulting (GIOC), 2013) 28 “Saving Oil and Gas in the Gulf” (Chatham House, 2013) 29 Study: “An Energy Guide Book for Industries in the GCC” (GIOC, 2013) and building audits 30 “GCC and SA individual residential building audits and Saving Oil and Gas in the Gulf” (Chatham House, 2013) 117 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential final energy consumption in 2012, the EE potential is estimated at 3,523 ktoe in terms of final energy. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential in the residential sector once converted in primary energy is equivalent to 6,696 ktoe. In total, the EE potential for the residential sector is 10,219 ktoe. The CO2 intensity of the residential sector was 0.5 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2006, while the average emissions factor was 8.2 teCO2/toe for the same year. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The final energy intensity of the agriculture sector was 0.029 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. An estimated 41 ktoe of EE potential in terms of final energy is based on an EE country benchmark31 for the agriculture sector only. 4.13.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 was 76,962 ktoe and 102,418 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential represents 25 percent of TPES. Figure 113 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 114 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 113: Saudi Arabia Projected EE Figure 114: Saudi Arabia EE Potential 2012- Potential, 2025 2025 100% 1. ELECTRICITY 90% 0% SECTOR 80% Industry 70% 20% 60% 32% Transport 50% 40% 15% 30% Tertiary 20% 13% 10% Residential 20% 0% EE EE EE Agriculture & fishing POTENTIAL POTENTIAL POTENTIAL 2012 2020 2025 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 31 National and MENA references (Jordan) 118 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.14 Sudan 4.14.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand Sudan’s energy production was 34,756 ktoe in 2011, mainly from crude oil, hydro, and combustible renewable and waste, up 74 percent from 2000. It is worth noting that the energy production for Sudan for 2012 decreased to 17,320 ktoe due to the situation between South Sudan and Sudan that led to a halt in energy production. Sudan relies heavily on exporting its oil products; exports increased from 7,297 ktoe in 2000 to 18,991 ktoe in 2011. Energy available for consumption increased during the same period, from 13,308 to 16,605 ktoe. Final energy consumption amounted to 10,989 ktoe in 2011, compared to 7,332 ktoe in 2000. Final energy consumed in 2011 came from other energies (61 percent) mainly combustible renewable and waste, oil products (32 percent), and electricity (5 percent). Electricity generation was 100 percent dependent on oil products in 2011. Total electricity generated amounted to 727 ktoe in 2011, compared to 221 ktoe in 2000. Figure 115 shows the energy consumed by sectors between 2000 and 2011. The largest energy-consuming sector was residential, followed by transport, industry, tertiary and agriculture and fishing. The evolution between 2000 and 2011 saw a decrease by 14 percent in the residential sector (at 5,061 ktoe in 2011), an increase by 10 percent in the transport sector (at 2,540 ktoe), an increase by 5 percent for tertiary (at 1,659 ktoe), a decrease of 1 percent for the agriculture and fishing sector (at 81 ktoe), and a steady industry sector at 15 percent (at 1,581 ktoe). Figure 115 : Sudan Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2011, Percentage Energy Use by Sector 2011 Energy Use by Sector 2000 1% 13% 2% 15% 10% 16% 24% 12% 47% 60% Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 119 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.14.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2020 Figure 116: Sudan Energy Use by Sector 2020 The total final energy consumption by all 0.38% end-use sectors is estimated to reach 10% Industry sector 16,428 ktoe in 2020,32 compared to 20% 10,989 ktoe in 2011. Generated Transport sector electricity is expected to reach 20,989 GWh in 2020, compared to 8,453 GWh in Residential sector 2011. 34% Tertiary sector In 2020, the residential sector will remain 36% the largest energy-consuming sector, Agriculture & fishing sector with a total estimated consumption of 5,723 ktoe, followed by transport at 5,521 ktoe, and tertiary at 3,215 ktoe. The industrial sector consumption will Figure 117: Sudan Final Energy Consumption for End-use Sectors increase from 24 percent in 2011 to 34 percent in 2020 for an estimated value of 9,000 1,604 ktoe, while the agriculture and 8,000 fishing sector will reduce consumption, 7,000 6,000 from 0.7 percent to 0.38 percent at a 5,000 value of 62 ktoe. 4,000 3,000 4.14.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 2,000 1,000 Final energy consumption by end-use 0 sectors is expected to reach 21,415 ktoe in 2025, with electricity generation amounting to 34,606 GWh. The largest Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector energy-consuming sector will be Agriculture & fishing sector transport at 41 percent, followed by residential, which is estimated to reach 29 percent. Figure 118: Sudan Energy Use by Sector 2025 In 2025, the tertiary sector (22 percent) 0.25% will consume more energy than the Industry sector 8% industrial sector (8 percent), while 22% Transport sector agriculture and fishing sector is estimated to fall to 0.26 percent of total energy Residential sector consumed in Sudan. 41% Tertiary sector Out of the total energy consumed, the 29% transport sector will consume 8,500 ktoe Agriculture & fishing sector in 2025 (compared to 902 ktoe in 2000), the residential sector 6,127 ktoe compared to 4,296 ktoe, tertiary sector 4,643 ktoe compared to 687 ktoe, while the industrial sector will consume 1,728 ktoe. The agriculture and fishing sector will decrease from 115 ktoe in 2000 to 53 ktoe in 2025. 32 For Sudan as it was in 2010 (South Sudan and Sudan) 120 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 119: Sudan Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Transport, ktoe Industry, ktoe Residential, ktoe 10,000 2,000 8,000 8,000 6,000 1,500 6,000 1,000 4,000 4,000 500 2,000 2,000 0 0 0 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 5,000 300 4,000 250 200 3,000 150 2,000 100 1,000 50 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 121 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.14.4 Energy Efficiency Potential The total primary energy supplied in Sudan for 2011 was 16,605 ktoe, an increase of 25 percent from 2000, of which 66 percent was consumed by the end-use sectors. Total EE potential was 2,930 ktoe33 in 2011, of which 3 percent was from the electricity sector and 97 percent from end-use sectors. The end-use sectors accounted for 97 percent of the total EE potential, of which 45 percent was from residential, 31 percent from transport, 13 percent from industry, 8 percent from tertiary, and 0.4 percent from agriculture and fishing. The total EE potential represented 18 percent of the total primary energy supplied in 2011. Table 37: Sudan EE Potential, ktoe, 2011 Figure 120: Sudan EE Potential, 2011 EE Potential, Sector ktoe, 2011 0.40% Electricity Electricity Sector 83 sector 3% (2010) Industry 13% End-Use Sectors 2,847 45% Transport Industry 381 31% Transport 909 Tertiary 8% Residential 1,310 Tertiary 235 Residential Agriculture and Fishing 12 Agriculture & TOTAL 2,930 fishing 18% of TPES s 4.14.4.1 Electricity Generation Total electricity generation amounted to 811 ktoe in 2012 with an annual variation of 10.5 percent from 2000. The power generation efficiency was 56 percent in 2010, which is considered high, as the capacity of thermal plants in Sudan is low. The country-tailored benchmark of 60 percent estimated the EE potential for the power generation at 47 ktoe for 2010. The specific consumption of power generation was 64 toe/GWh in 2012. The transmission and distribution electricity losses in Sudan were s 23 percent for 2010, with 7 percent from transmission and 16 percent from distribution. The sub-regional benchmark used estimated the EE potential of the transmission losses at 7 ktoe and 30 ktoe for distribution losses. The total EE potential for the electricity sector in terms of primary energy was 83 ktoe in 2010. 33Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 122 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.14.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The EE potential of the industry sector in terms of final energy was 363 ktoe in 2011, based on the final energy intensity of 0.405 toe/1,000 USD in 2011 and using the sub-regional benchmark of 0.3 toe/1,000 USD. The EE potential represented almost 26 percent of total energy consumed by the industry sector in 2011. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 18 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 381 ktoe. The average emission factor of the industry sector was 1.5 teCO 2/toe in 2011, while the CO2 intensity of amounted to 0.6 teCO2/1,000 USD for 2011. ii. Transport The EE potential of the transport sector in terms of final energy was 909 ktoe in 2011 based on estimations from Yemen EE potential for the transport sector. The total EE potential represented 36 percent of total energy used by this sector in 2011. The average emissions of the transport sector were 2.9 teCO2/toe, while the CO2 intensity of the sector was 0.2 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2011. iii. Tertiary The EE potential for the tertiary sector in Sudan in terms of final energy was 218 ktoe in 2011, using the final energy intensity of the tertiary sector (0.104 toe/1,000 USD in 2011) and the country-tailored benchmark based on the comparison with Mediterranean countries, such as Lebanon. The EE potential represented 13 percent of the total energy consumed by the tertiary sector in 2011. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 17 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 235 ktoe. iv. Residential The specific consumption of energy per unit area was 12.76 kgoe/m2/yr in 2011. A country- tailored benchmark was set at 9.6 kgoe/m2/yr, based on the comparison with Mediterranean countries such as Algeria and Libya. The EE potential for the residential sector in terms of final energy was 1,253 ktoe in 2011. The EE potential consisted of 25 percent of the total energy consumed by the residential sector in 2011. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 57 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 1,310 ktoe. The unit consumption of energy per dwelling was 893 kgoe/Dw in 2011, compared to 829 kgoe/Dw in 2000 while the unit consumption of electricity per dwelling was 600 Kwh/Dw in 2011. The average emission of the residential sector was 0.6 teCO 2/toe in 2011. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The final energy intensity of agriculture was 0.007 toe/1,000 USD in 2011. The country- tailored benchmark was set at 0.006 toe/1,000 USD based on estimations and estimated 123 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential the EE potential at 12 ktoe in 2011. Due to lack of data for fishing, the EE potential for agriculture and fishing in terms of final energy was estimated at 12 ktoe. The EE potential represented 15 percent of total energy consumed by the agriculture and fishing sector. 4.14.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 was 4,709 ktoe and 6,375 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2011. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential represents 19 percent of TPES. Figure 121 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 122 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2011, 2020, and 2025. Figure 121: Sudan Projected EE Potential, Figure 122: Sudan EE Potential 2011-2025 2025 100% 90% 0.12% 1. ELECTRICITY 80% SECTOR 10% 70% Industry 60% 25% 7% 50% Transport 40% 30% Tertiary 20% 10% 10% 0% Residential 48% EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL 2011 2020 2025 Agriculture & fishing 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 124 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.15 Tunisia 4.15.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand Tunisia produced a total of 5,844 ktoe of energy in 2012, mainly from natural gas and crude oil, an increase of 6 percent from 2000. Energy exports increased from 3,577 ktoe in 2000 to 3,710 ktoe in 2012, while its imports increased in the same period from 4,390 ktoe to 6,712 ktoe. Tunisia used to import coal but stopped in 2003. Energy available for national consumption increased from 6,298 ktoe in 2000 to 11,796 ktoe in 2012. Final energy consumption was 6,052 ktoe in 2012 compared to 5,285 ktoe in 2000, representing the slowest final energy consumption increase in the region at 15 percent. Final energy consumed in 2012 came from oil products (59 percent), natural gas (21 percent), and electricity (21 percent). The largest contributor to electricity generation was natural gas at 99.95 percent in 2012, while the rest relied on other fuels and renewables. Total electricity generated amounted to 1,547 ktoe in 2012, compared to 911 ktoe in 2000. Figure 123 shows the energy consumed by sectors between 2000 and 2012. The largest energy-consuming sector was industry, followed by transport, residential, tertiary, and agriculture and fishing. The evolution between 2000 and 2012 saw a slight decrease in the industrial sector (at 2,008 ktoe in 2012), constant for transport (at 1,878 ktoe in 2012), an increase by 2 percent for residential (at 1,024 ktoe in 2012) and constant for tertiary and agriculture and fishing (at 583 ktoe and 405 ktoe, respectively, in 2012). It is worth mentioning that the political revolution in 2010 to 2011 had little impact on the energy sector in terms of production, imports, exports, and consumption. Figure 123: Tunisia Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage Energy use by sector, 2000 Energy use by sector, 2012 7% 7% 10% 10% 36% 34% 15% 17% 32% 32% Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 125 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.15.2 Energy Demand Outlook Total final energy consumption by all Figure 124: Tunisia Energy Use by Sector 2020 end-use sectors is estimated to reach Industry sector 6,602 ktoe in 2020, compared to 6,052 6% ktoe in 2012, representing the lowest 10% Transport sector increase in the region at 17 percent. 33% Generated electricity is expected to 19% Residential sector reach 24,918 GWh in 2020 compared to 17,988 GWh in 2012. Tertiary sector 32% Agriculture & In 2020, the industrial sector will remain fishing sector the largest energy-consuming sector with a total projected consumption of 2,119 ktoe, followed by transport at Figure 125: Tunisia Final energy Consumption for End-use Sectors 2,056 ktoe and residential sector at 1,214 ktoe. 5,000 4,000 Tertiary sector’s estimated consumption will remain constant at 10 percent in 3,000 2020 with an estimated value of 651 2,000 ktoe, while the agriculture and fishing 1,000 sector is estimated to fall 7 percent to 6 percent at a value of 425 ktoe. 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Industry Tertiary 4.15.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 Residential Tertiary Agriculture & fishing Final energy consumption by end-use sectors is expected to reach 6,981 ktoe in 2025, with electricity generation Figure 126: Tunisia Energy Use by Sector 2025 amounting to 30,547 GWh. The industry Industry and transport sectors are estimated to sector be the most two intensive sectors (both 6% Transport at 32 percent), followed by residential 10% sector (at 20 percent), tertiary (at 10 percent). 32% Residential sector In 2025, the tertiary sector will still 20% consume more energy than agriculture Tertiary sector and fishing, which is estimated to represent 6 percent of total energy 32% Agriculture consumed in Tunisia. & fishing sector Out of the total energy consumed, the industrial sector will consume 2,192 ktoe in 2025, compared to 1,840 ktoe in 2000. The transport sector will consume 2,176 ktoe compared to 1,621 ktoe in 2000, residential sector will consume 1,351 ktoe compared to 777 ktoe, and the tertiary sector will consume 698 126 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential ktoe. The agriculture and fishing sector consumption will increase from 374 ktoe in 2000 to 439 ktoe in 2025. Figure 127: Tunisia Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe 2,300 1,600 2,500 2,200 1,400 2,100 2,000 1,200 2,000 1,000 1,500 800 1,900 1,000 600 1,800 400 1,700 500 200 1,600 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 800 500 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 127 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.15.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied in Tunisia was 9,966 ktoe in 2012, compared to 7,304 ktoe in 2000, of which 61 percent consumed by end-use sectors. The total EE potential for Tunisia in 2012 was 2,181 ktoe,34 with 21 percent from the electricity sector and 79 percent from end-use sectors. The end-use sector with the highest EE potential was industry at 677 ktoe (31 percent), followed by tertiary at 349 ktoe (16 percent), residential at 321 ktoe (15 percent), transport at 251 ktoe (11 percent), and agriculture and fishing at 135 ktoe (6 percent). The EE potential represented 22 percent of total primary energy consumption for 2012. Table 38: Tunisia EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 Figure 128: Tunisia EE Potential, 2012 EE Potential, Electricity Sector ktoe, 2012 sector Industry Electricity Sector 448 6% 21% 15% End-Use Sectors 1,734 Transport Industry 677 16% 31% Tertiary Transport 251 11% Residential 321 Residential Tertiary 349 Agriculture and Fishing 135 Agriculture & fishing TOTAL 2,181 22% of TPES s 4.15.4.1 Electricity Generation Electricity generation in Tunisia for 2012 was 1,547 ktoe, with an annual increase of 4.2 percent from 2000. The power generation efficiency amounted to 40 percent in 2012. Using the country-tailored benchmark based on sector situation, a hypothesis,35 and international references set at 52 percent, the EE potential of the power generation sector is estimated to be 396 ktoe. The specific consumption of power generation was 196 toe/GWh in 2012. The transmission and distribution electricity losses were 14.3 percent, of which 4 percent came from transmission and 10.3 percent from distribution in 2011. A sub-regional benchmark was set at 3 percent for transmission and 8 percent for distribution losses estimated the EE potential at 16 ktoe for transmission and 36 ktoe for distribution in 2011. The entire electricity generation sector has an estimated EE potential of 448 ktoe for 2012 in terms of primary energy. 34 Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 35 Switch of steam and GT plants to CCGT with 60 percent efficiency. 128 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.15.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The final energy intensity of the industrial sector was 0.604 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. A country-tailored benchmark of 0.45 toe/1,000 USD was set based on the structure of the industry sector, its evolution, and other country performances. This benchmark estimated the EE potential of the industry sector in terms of final energy at 511 ktoe in 2012, 26 percent of the total energy consumed by the sector. Out of the nine energy-intensive industries, data was only available for cement, which has an estimated potential based on specific energy at 398 ktoe in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 165 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 677 ktoe. The average emissions factor of the industry sector was 2.27 teCO2/toe in 2012, a decrease of almost 9 percent since 2000. The CO2 intensity was 1.37 teCO2/1,000 USD, a 28 percent decrease since 2000). ii. Transport The final energy intensity of the transport sector was 0.09 toe/1,000 USD for 2012 while the average energy unit consumption of cars was 1,136 kgoe/car/yr. EE potential in terms of final energy was 251 ktoe for the transport sector based on the energy unit consumption of cars and using a country-tailored benchmark of 950 Kgoe/car/yr. The EE potential for the transport sector was based on road transport only due to lack of data for railways, air, and maritime transport. The total EE potential represented 13 percent of total energy consumed by this sector in 2012. The average emissions factor for the transport sector was 3.6 teCO2/toe in 2012, and CO2 intensity of 0.33 teCO2/1,000 USD, down from 0.45 in 2000. On the other hand, the motorization rate in Tunisia decreased from 12.74 persons per vehicle in 2000 to 8.01 persons per vehicle in 2012. iii. Tertiary The final energy intensity of the tertiary sector in 2012 was 0.053 toe/1,000 USD. Using the country-tailored benchmark based on the Plan Bleu study set at 0.035 toe/1,000 USD, the EE potential in terms of final energy was estimated to be 195 ktoe in 2012. The EE potential represented 33 percent of total energy consumed by this sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 155 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 349 ktoe. The average emission factor was 1.8 teCO2/toe in 2012, compared to 2 teCO2/toe in 2000. The CO2 intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.1 teCO2/1,000 USD, compared to 0.2 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2000. 129 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential iv. Residential The energy intensity of the residential sector was 0.077 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, down from 0.101 toe/1,000 USD in 2000. The specific consumption of energy per unit area was 3.27 kgoe/m2/yr in 2012, increasing from 3 kgoe/m2/yr in 2000. The reference indicator—a chosen-specific consumption of energy per unit area —combined with a country-tailored benchmark based on the Plan Bleu study estimated the EE potential in terms of final energy to be 209 ktoe in 2012. The total EE potential represented 20 percent of total energy consumed by this sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 112 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 321 ktoe. The unit consumption of energy per dwelling decreased from 344 kgoe/Dw in 2000 to 327 kgoe/Dw in 2012. On the other hand, the average emissions factor was 2.1 teCO2/toe and the CO2 intensity of the residential sector was 0.2 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2012. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The final energy intensity of the agriculture sector was 0.18 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, while the specific energy consumption for fishing was 0.88 toe/ton. The EE potential in terms of final energy was 135 ktoe for 2012 for the agriculture and fishing sector using a country- tailored benchmark based on estimations (0.14 for agriculture and 0.7 for fishing, respectively). 4.15.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 was 2,562 ktoe and 2,412 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential represents 14 percent of TPES. Figure 129 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 130 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 129: Tunisia Projected EE Potential, Figure 130: Tunisia EE Potential 2012-2025 2025 100% 90% 5% 80% 1. ELECTRICITY 70% 15% SECTOR 30% 60% Industry 50% Transport 40% 14% 30% Tertiary 20% Residential 10% 10% 26% 0% EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL 2012 2020 2025 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 130 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.15.6 Cost of conserved energy Table 39 below lists the available data on the electricity efficiency potential abatement cost curve for Tunisia in 2020. It provides a combined estimation of electricity efficiency potential and net abatement cost by end-use sectors for a set of EE technologies. The total cost-effective electricity efficiency potential (659 ktoe) has been mostly identified in the residential sector reaching 71 percent of the total identified electricity efficiency potential36. Two technologies, efficient space heating in new buildings and efficient fridges, accounted respectively for 39 percent and 50 percent of the total electricity efficiency potential. The SWH contribution accounted for a small share of only 7 percent in the total electricity efficiency potential which highlights the fact that is already greatly penetrated in both sectors. The needed annual investment cost to realise this electricity efficiency potential is estimated to USD 64 million, most of it in the residential sector with 78 percent. Efficient space heating and efficient fridges account for the largest shares of this cost with 20 percent and 62 percent, respectively. Over the period 2012 to 2020, the total investment cost of USD 695 million is largely compensated by the net (negative) abatement cost of USD 4,024 million. Table 39: Electricity Efficiency Potential Abatement Investment Costs by End-Use Sectors and EE Technologies for Tunisia over the Period 2012-2020 Net Sectors/EE Investment Electricity Efficiency Potential abatement technologies Cost (3) cost (2) Total of By EE technology subsector (1) (2) ktoe/y ktoe/y USD/toe M USD/y M USD/y Tertiary 116,9 7,7 1,3 -60,8 SWH* 7,7 170 1,3 -60,8 Residential 90,2 651,2 62,4 -442,1 Efficient lighting 24,3 120 2,9 -75,0 Efficient space heating 255,4 140 35,8 -66,8 in new buildings Efficient washing 3,4 170 0,6 -236,7 machines Efficient fridges 329,4 120 39,5 -3,6 SWH* 38,7 170 6,6 -59,9 TOTAL 207,2 658,9 86,7 -503,0 Total without SWH 612,5 % of total Electricity Efficiency 295,7% Potential 36 The industrial sector is not covered in the Budget Allocation Chart (BAC) owing to a lack of relevant data in this sector. At the contrary, the availability and quality of detailed data in the residential sector BAC allowed to identify and detail various EE&RE technologies, resulting in a higher coverage (ratio up to 3) of the total identified electricity efficiency potential. 131 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Notes: * SWH is not listed in the EE potential estimation by subsector but covered here Sources (1) Study estimations for 2020 based on 2012-2020 annual variation (see Task on EE potential) (2) Data for 2020. Budget Allocation Chart (BAC), MED-ENEC and MED-EMIP, 2010 (3) Energy efficiency in Building sector of the South Mediterranean countries , Plan Bleu, 2012 Table 40: Electricity Efficiency Potential and Net Abatement Cost by EE Technologies for Tunisia over the Period 2012-2020 Electricity Efficiency Sectors/EE technologies Net abatement cost Potential ktoe/y M USD/y SWH (tertiary) 7,7 -60,8 Efficient lighting 24,3 -75,0 Efficient space heating in new buildings 255,4 -66,8 Efficient washing machines 3,4 -236,7 Efficient fridges 329,4 -3,6 SWH (residential) 38,7 -59,9 TOTAL 658,9 -503,0 4.15.7 Reduction in energy expenditures and avoided investments The main results in terms of sectoral and technology reductions in electricity expenditures and avoidable electricity capacity investments are presented in Table 41. Table 41: Reductions in Electricity Expenditures and Avoided Power Investments for Tunisia over the Period 2012-2020 Reductions in Avoidable electricity Sectors/EE Electricity Efficiency Potential electricity capacity investments technologies expenditures (a) (b) Total of By EE subsector M USD/y MW M USD (c) technology (2) (1) ktoe/y ktoe/y Tertiary 116,9 7,7 8,3 20,3 22,3 SWH 7,7 8,3 20,3 22,3 Residential 651,2 747,6 1 709,4 1 880,4 Efficient lighting 24,3 27,9 63,9 70,3 Efficient space heating in new 90,2 255,4 293,2 670,5 737,5 buildings 132 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Efficient washing 3,4 3,9 8,8 9,7 machines Efficient fridges 329,4 378,1 864,6 951,1 SWH 38,7 44,4 101,6 111,7 TOTAL 207,2 658,9 755,9 1 729,7 1 902,7 Total without SWH 612,5 % of total Electricity Efficiency 295,7% 42,6% Potential / Installed capacity Notes: (a) based on average avoided electricity cost in 2020: low voltage: 0,076 €/kWh or 1,148 USD/toe; medium voltage: 0,071 €/kWh or 1,073 USD/toe (BAC Tunisia, 2020) (b) based on average electricity usage (hours/year)-without available data, hypothesis: similar to power plant time usage-around 5,000 h/y (2012) Power plant time usage (hours/year): 4 430 (c) based on average investment cost of combined cycle (CCGT) of 850€/kW or 1,100 USD/kW (sources: IEA ETSAP, Fraunhofer Institut) According to these results, the electricity efficiency potential over the period 2012-2020 would be equivalent for end-customers to an annual reduction of almost USD 756 million of their electricity expenses. On the power generation side, the realisation of the electricity efficiency potential would avoid to use a capacity of 1,730 MW or almost 43 percent of Tunisia’s current existing installed power capacity. This would then avoid new investment of almost USD 1,900 million (based on CCGT technology). Those savings consumption and supply sides would then amount to USD 2,660 million or 12.7 percent of Tunisia’s actual GDP at current price. 133 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.16 United Arab Emirates The total energy production of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) amounted to 194,348 ktoe in 2012, compared to 156,403 ktoe in 2000. Much of this was due to an increase of crude oil production from 123,013 ktoe in 2000 to 150,380 ktoe in 2012 and a parallel increase from 33,390 ktoe of natural gas production in 2000 to 43,968 ktoe in 2012. The country imports and exports large quantities of fuel; for instance, the UAE imported natural gas (15,656 ktoe), oil products (17,628 ktoe) and coal (1,685 ktoe) in 2012 and exported crude oil (120,593 ktoe), natural gas (6,154 ktoe), oil products (15,896 ktoe), and electricity (3 ktoe). Eight percent of produced energy was allocated for use in the petrochemicals sector, compared to 5 percent in 2000, while 10 percent of produced energy was used for international bunkers in the same year, up from 8 percent in 2000. Total primary energy available for consumption was 67,402 ktoe for 2012, almost doubling from 2000. Electricity generation relied on natural gas and oil products as fuel input, with 98 percent from natural gas and 2 percent from oil products. In 2000, 97 percent of electricity generation was from natural gas and 3 percent from oil products. Total electricity generated amounted to 8,680 ktoe in 2012, compared to 3,435 ktoe in 2000. Total energy consumed in the UAE was 49,964 ktoe for 2012, an increase of 100 percent from 2000. The main energy sources in 2012 were natural gas (29,015 ktoe), oil products (10,990 ktoe), electricity (6,433 ktoe), and coal (1,685 ktoe). The largest energy-consuming sector in 2012 was industry at 32,627 ktoe (compared to 16,614 ktoe in 2000), followed by transport at 14,372 ktoe (compared to 4,922 ktoe), residential at 3,089 ktoe (compared to 1,284 ktoe), and tertiary at 2,852 ktoe (compared to 896 ktoe). Energy consumed for non-energy purposes was 1,841 ktoe in 2012, double that in 2000. Figure 131: UAE Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage Energy Use by Sector, 2000 Energy Use by Sector, 2012 4% 5% 6% 6% 21% 20% 70% 68% Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector 134 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.16.1 Energy Demand Outlook, 2020 Energy consumption by end-use sector is expected to reach 84,533 ktoe in 2020, double the energy consumed in 2000. Figure 132: UAE Energy Use by Sector 2020 The industrial sector will remain the largest energy-consuming sector at 66 8% percent in 2020 (compared to 70 percent 7% Industry sector in 2000), followed by transport at 19 Transport sector percent (compared to 21 percent), 19% Residential sector tertiary at 8 percent (compared to 4 66% Tertiary sector percent), and residential at 7 percent (compared to 5 percent). Total energy consumption in the UAE is projected in 2020 to reach 49,426 ktoe Figure 133: UAE Final Energy Consumption for by industry, 14,372 ktoe by transport, End-use Sectors 5,814 ktoe by tertiary, and 5,301 ktoe 70,000 by residential. 60,000 50,000 40,000 4.16.2 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 30,000 Total energy consumption by end use 20,000 sectors is estimated to be 143,493 ktoe 10,000 for 2025, compared with 24,596 ktoe for 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 2000. Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector The percentage of each sectors’ energy consumption out of total energy Figure 134: UAE Energy Use by Sector 2025 consumption between 2000 and 2015 is as follows: a decrease from 70 percent to 65 percent for industry, a decrease by 2 9% percent for the transport sector to 19 7% Industry sector percent, an increase from 5 percent to 9 Transport sector percent for the tertiary sector, and an increase of 2 percent for the residential 19% Residential sector sector to 7 percent. 65% Tertiary sector Out of the total 143,493 ktoe of estimated energy consumed in 2025, the industrial sector will consume 64,075 ktoe, the transport sector 18,549 ktoe, tertiary 9,075 ktoe, and residential 7,430 ktoe. 135 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 135: UAE Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe 70,000 20,000 60,000 50,000 15,000 40,000 10,000 30,000 20,000 5,000 10,000 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 Residential, ktoe Tertiary, ktoe 8,000 10,000 7,000 9,000 6,000 8,000 7,000 5,000 6,000 4,000 5,000 3,000 4,000 2,000 3,000 1,000 2,000 0 1,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 2025 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2025 136 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.16.3 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied was 67,402 ktoe in 2012, compared to 33,927 ktoe in 2000, a twofold increase of which 66 percent was from energy consumed by end-use sectors. The total EE potential in the UAE in 2012 was 18,045 ktoe,37 of which 14 percent was from the electricity sector and 86 percent from the end-use sectors. The end-use sector with the highest EE potential is industry at 8,238 ktoe, followed by 2,527 ktoe for residential, 2,388 ktoe for transport, and 2,366 ktoe for tertiary sector. The total EE potential represented 27 percent of total energy consumed by end-use sectors in 2012. Table 42: UAE EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 Figure 136: UAE EE Potential, 2012 EE Potential, Sector ktoe, 2012 Electricity sector Electricity Sector 2,527 Industry 14% 14% End-Use Sectors 15,519 13% Industry 8,238 Transport Transport 2,388 13% 46% Residential 2,527 Tertiary Tertiary 2,366 Agriculture and … Residential Fishing TOTAL 18,045 27% of TPES s 4.16.3.1 Electricity Generation Total electricity generation increased from 3,435 ktoe in 2000 to 8,680 ktoe in 2012. The power generation efficiency was 34 percent in 2012. The country-tailored benchmark was set at 43 percent, based on the situation of the sector and international references. This benchmark estimated the EE potential for power generation at 2,338 ktoe. The specific consumption of power generation was 254 toe/GWh in 2012. The total transmission and distribution electricity losses amounted to 7.2 percent, with 3 percent from transmission and 4.2 percent from distribution. Sub-regional benchmarks were used to estimate an EE potential of 87 ktoe for transmission losses and 102 ktoe for distribution. The total EE potential for the electricity sector in terms of primary energy was 2,527 ktoe in 2012. 4.16.3.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The final energy intensity of the industry sector was 1.452 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. The country-tailored benchmark was 1.1 toe/1,000 USD based on the structure of the industry sector, its evolution, and other country performances based on a regional study.38 The EE 37 Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 38 “Energy Efficiency Guidebook, A GOIC Publication for GCC Industries, ” 2013. 137 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential potential in terms of final energy based on the energy intensity was 7,907 ktoe in 2012. The EE potential represented 24 percent of energy consumed by the industry sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 331 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 8,238 ktoe. The average emission factor of the industry sector was 13.3 teCO2/toe in 2012, compared to 13.2 teCO2/toe in 2000, while the CO2 intensity of the sector was 19.4 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2012, increasing from 14.3 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2000. ii. Transport The EE potential, in terms of final energy was 2,388 ktoe in 2012, based on an estimation of a 25 percent reduction of energy consumed. The EE potential for the transport sector takes into account only road transport due to lack of data for other means of transportation, such as maritime, air, and railways. The average emissions factor of the transport sector was 2.9 teCO2/toe and the CO2 intensity of the sector was 0.1 teCO2/1,000 USD in 2012. iii. Tertiary The final energy intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.049 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. A country-tailored benchmark was set at 0.035 toe/1,000 USD based on a regional study. The EE potential, in terms of final energy, was estimated at 802 ktoe in 2012, which represented almost 28 percent of total energy consumed by the tertiary sector in that year. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was equivalent to 1,564 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 2,366 ktoe. The average emission factor was 10.9 teCO2/toe in 2012, while the CO2 intensity of the tertiary sector amounted to 0.5 teCO2/1,000 USD for the same year. iv. Residential The EE potential for the residential sector, in terms of final energy, was estimated at 896 ktoe in 2012 based on a country-tailored benchmark derived from a set of GCC and UAE individual audits, studies, and expert analysis (29 percent reduction of total energy consumed by the sector). In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 1,631 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 2,527 ktoe. The average emission factor was 11.1 teCO 2/1,000 USD in 2012. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector Statistical data related to the energy intensity of the agriculture and fishing sector was unavailable for the United Arab Emirates. The EE potential was not estimated due to the lack of data for this sector. 138 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.16.4 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 was 29,897 ktoe and 41,339 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential represents 25 percent of TPES. Figure 137 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 138 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 137: UAE Projected EE Potential, 2025 Figure 138: UAE EE Potential 2012-2025 100% 0% 1. ELECTRICITY 90% SECTOR 80% 15% 17% Industry 70% 60% Transport 50% 40% 18% 30% Tertiary 20% 10% 39% Residential 0% 11% EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL 2012 2020 2025 Agriculture & fishing 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 139 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.17 Yemen 4.17.1 Overview of Energy Supply and Demand The production of energy in Yemen mainly relied on crude oil until 2009, when the country started producing natural gas, reaching a total of 8,604 ktoe in 2011. The production of crude oil decreased from 21,952 ktoe in 2000 to 8,229 ktoe in 2012. Yemen imported 3,117 ktoe of oil products in 2012. The country exported crude oil and oil products until 2009, when the export of natural gas started. Electricity generated in Yemen is based on oil products only with a variation from 294 ktoe in 2000 to 566 ktoe in 2012. Oil products were heavily consumed by end-use sectors, representing about 90 percent of the total in 2012. Figure 139 represents the variation of the energy consumed by end-use sectors between 2000 and 2012. The transport sector consumed 45 percent of total energy available in 2000 and 43 percent in 2012, followed by the residential sector from 22 percent in 2000 to 17 percent in 2012. Agriculture and fishing sector decreased from 14 percent in 2000 to 13 percent in 2012. Figure 139: Yemen Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage Energy Use by Sector, 2000 Energy Use by Sector, 2012 14% 11% 13% 15% 8% 12% 22% 17% 45% 43% Industry sector Transport sector Residential sector Tertiary sector Agriculture & fishing sector 140 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.17.2 Energy Demand Outlook The proportion of the total energy Figure 140: Yemen Energy Use by Sector 2020 consumed by end-use sector in 2020 will be 41 percent for the transport sector, 17 Industry sector percent for industry, 15 percent for both 12% 17% Transport residential and tertiary sector, and 12 sector percent for agriculture and fishing. 15% Residential sector Tertiary sector Total energy consumption will reach 4,157 15% 41% ktoe in 2020, an increase of 10 percent Agriculture & fishing sector from 2012. In addition, electricity generation is estimated to increase to 9,844 GWh in 2020. Figure 141: Yemen Final Energy Consumption for End-use Sectors, ktoe Energy consumption by sectors in physical 3,000 units is estimated for 2020 to be 1,711 ktoe 2,500 for the transport sector, 715 ktoe for industry, 601 ktoe for tertiary, 613 ktoe for 2,000 residential, and 510 ktoe for agriculture and 1,500 fishing. 1,000 500 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 4.17.3 Energy Demand Outlook 2025 Industry Transport Total electricity generation will amount to Residential Tertiary 12,663 GWh in 2025, compared to 6,579 Agriculture & fishing GWh in 2012, while energy consumption Figure 142: Yemen Energy Use by Sector 2025 by end-use sectors will increase from 3,765 ktoe in 2012 to 4,458 ktoe in 2025. Industry The distribution of total energy consumed sector by sector shows an increase of 4 percent 12% 19% Transport for both the industrial and tertiary sectors, sector with a decrease of 3 percent, 4 percent, 16% Residential and 1 percent for the transport, residential sector and agriculture and fishing sectors Tertiary respectively, for 2025 compared to 2012. 13% sector 40% Agriculture Total energy consumed will be divided at & fishing 1,769 ktoe for the transport sector in sector 2025, 834 ktoe for the industry sector, 732 ktoe for the tertiary sector, 593 ktoe for the residential sector, and 527 ktoe for the agriculture and fishing sector. 141 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 143: Yemen Energy Consumption Trends by Sector Industry, ktoe Transport, ktoe Residential, ktoe 1,000 3,000 1,000 900 800 2,500 800 700 2,000 600 600 1,500 500 400 400 1,000 300 200 200 500 100 0 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tertiary, ktoe Agriculture & Fishing, ktoe 900 900 750 750 600 600 450 450 300 300 150 150 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 142 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.17.4 Energy Efficiency Potential Total primary energy supplied was 7,890 ktoe in 2011, an increase of 66 percent from 2000, of which 60 percent of energy was consumed by end-use sectors. Total EE potential was 944 ktoe39 in 2012, of which 11 percent was for the electricity sector and 89 percent for end-use sectors. The total EE potential represented 12 percent of total primary energy supplied for 2011. The end-use sector with the highest EE potential was transport at 30 percent, followed by 16 percent for industry, 16 percent for residential, 14 percent for tertiary, and 13 percent for agriculture and fishing. Table 43: Yemen EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 Figure 144: Yemen EE Potential, 2012 EE Potential, ktoe, Sector 2012 Electricity sector Electricity Sector 106 13% 11% Industry End-Use Sectors 838 Industry 152 Transport 16% 16% Transport 286 Residential 149 Tertiary Tertiary 134 14% Residential Agriculture and 117 30% Fishing Agriculture & TOTAL 944 fishing 12% of TPES of 2011 s 4.17.4.1 Electricity Generation Total electricity generation increased from 294 ktoe in 2000 to 566 ktoe in 2012, an annual increase of 5.2 percent. The EE potential for the power generation efficiency was 30 ktoe using the calculated power generation efficiency of 43 percent and the country-tailored benchmark of 45 percent for 2012. The specific consumption of power generation was 226 toe/GWh in 2012. Transmission and distribution losses amounted to 27.4 percent for 2012, based on estimated data40, where transmission losses were 3 percent and distribution losses 24.4 percent. The sub-regional benchmarks used were 3 percent for transmission losses and 11 percent for distribution. The EE potential for the transmission and distribution losses was estimated at 76 ktoe, with no EE potential for transmission and 76 ktoe for the distribution. The total EE potential for the electricity sector in Yemen in terms of primary energy was 106 ktoe for 2012. 39 Estimations for electricity sector are in terms of primary energy, estimations for transport and agriculture and fishing sectors are in terms of final energy, while estimations for industry, residential and tertiary sectors are in terms of primary and final energy. 40 Calculated from the energy balance data for 2011. Data for 2013 from AUPTDE indicates transmission losses at 2.5 percent and distribution losses at 33 percent. In addition, CSO Yemen statistics indicate a total transmission and distribution losses of 36 percent. Based on AUPTDE, the estimated commercial losses for 2012 were 8.3 percent 143 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 4.17.4.2 End-Use Sectors i. Industry The final energy intensity of the industry sector was 0.054 ktoe/1,000 USD in 2012. The country-tailored benchmark was set at 0.04 ktoe/1,000 USD, based on the structure of the industry sector, its evolution, and other country performances. The EE potential for the industry sector, in terms of final energy based on energy intensity was 146 ktoe in 2012. The EE potential represented 26 percent of the total energy consumed by the industry sector in 2012. Out of the nine energy-intensive industries, data was available for cement industries only, which had an estimated potential of 222 ktoe in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 6 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 152 ktoe. The average emissions factor of the industry sector was 3 teCO2/toe for 2012 while the CO2 intensity of the industry sector was 0.17 teCO2/1,000 USD. ii. Transport The final energy intensity of the transport sector was 0.139 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, while the average energy unit consumption of gasoline cars was 1,755 kgoe/car/yr. The average unit consumption of gasoline cars was selected for estimating the EE potential of the transport sector due its accuracy. Using the regionally tailored benchmark of 970 kgoe/car/yr, and the average unit consumption of gasoline cars, the EE potential in terms of final energy was 286 ktoe for 2012, 18 percent of total energy consumed by the transport sector. The EE potential represented road transport only due to lack of data for air and maritime transport. The average emissions factor of the transport sector was 2.9 teCO2/TOE in 2012, while the CO2 intensity of the transport sector was 0.4 teCO 2/1,000 USD. The motorization rate in Yemen was 52 persons per vehicle in 2012. iii. Tertiary The energy intensity of the tertiary sector was 0.35 toe/1,000 USD in 2012. The EE potential for the tertiary sector in terms of final energy was 101 ktoe in 2012, using the country-tailored benchmark based on the comparison with Mediterranean countries of 0.27 toe/1,000 USD. The EE potential represented 23 percent of total energy consumed by the sector in 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 34 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 134 ktoe. iv. Residential The energy intensity of the residential sector was 0.421 toe/1,000 USD in 2012, while the specific consumption of energy per unit area was 2.62 kgoe/m2/yr. A country-tailored 144 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential benchmark of 2.2 kgoe/m2/yr based on the Plan Bleu study estimated the EE potential of this sector in terms of final energy to be 103 ktoe, which was 16 percent of the total energy consumed by the residential sector for 2012. In addition, the final electricity efficiency potential of the sector converted in primary energy was 46 ktoe. This potential added to the EE potential in final energy estimated the total EE potential for the sector at 149 ktoe. The unit consumption of energy per dwelling amounted to 183 kgoe/Dw in 2012 compared to 265 kgoe/Dw in 2000, while the unit consumption of electricity per dwelling was 719 Kwh/Dw for 2012. The average emission factor of the residential sector was 4.5 teCO2/toe in 2012 and the CO2 intensity 1.9 teCO2/1000 USD. v. Agriculture and Fishing Sector The final energy intensity of the agriculture sector was 0.308 ktoe in 2012, compared to 0.368 ktoe in 2000. On the other hand, the specific consumption for fishing was 0.082 toe/ton in 2012, compared to 0.13 toe/ton in 2000. Two country-tailored benchmarks were used for agriculture and for fishing to estimate the EE potential of 113 ktoe for agriculture and 3.4 ktoe for fishing, for a total of 117 ktoe in 2012, which represented 24 percent of total energy used by the sector. 4.17.5 Energy Efficiency Potential 2020 and 2025 The technical EE potential projected for 2020 and 2025 was 1,121 ktoe and 1,271 ktoe, respectively. The EE potential was based on the annual sectoral variation for 2000 to 2012. Based on the projected values of 2025, the total EE potential represents 23 percent of total TPES. Figure 145 shows the percentages of the subsectors with their projected EE potential, while Figure 146 shows the variation of the EE potential for 2012, 2020, and 2025. Figure 145: Yemen Projected EE Potential, Figure 146: Yemen EE Potential 2012-2025 2025 100% 90% 80% 1. ELECTRICITY 70% 10% SECTOR 19% 60% Industry 50% 11% 40% Transport 30% 20% 18% 18% 10% Tertiary 0% EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL EE POTENTIAL Residential 2012 2020 2025 24% 1. ELECTRICITY SECTOR 2. END-USE SECTORS 145 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential List of figures Figure 1: Energy Use by Sectors, 2000 and 2011, Percentage........................................ 20 Figure 2: Projected MENA Final Energy Use by Sector, 2020 .......................................... 21 Figure 3: Final Regional Energy Consumption for End-Use Sector, Mtoe .......................... 21 Figure 4: Energy Use by Sector, 2025 ......................................................................... 22 Figure 5: Energy Consumption Trends by Sector .......................................................... 22 Figure 6: Total MENA EE Potential, 2012 ..................................................................... 23 Figure 7: Electricity Sector EE Potential, 2012 .............................................................. 23 Figure 10: Total MENA EE potential in 2025 ................................................................. 27 Figure 9: Total MENA EE potential in 2020 ................................................................... 27 Figure 10: End-use sectors EE potential 2025 .............................................................. 27 Figure 11: Algeria Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2011, Percentage ............................. 29 Figure 12: Algeria Energy Use by Sector 2020 ............................................................. 30 Figure 13: Algeria Final Energy Consumption of End-Use Sectors ................................... 30 Figure 14: Algeria Energy Use by Sector 2025 ............................................................. 30 Figure 15: Algeria Energy Consumption Trends by Sector .............................................. 31 Figure 16: Algeria EE Potential, 2011 .......................................................................... 32 Figure 17: Algeria Projected EE Potential, 2025 ............................................................ 34 Figure 18: Algeria EE Potential, 2011-2025 ................................................................. 34 Figure 19: Bahrain Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage ............................ 35 Figure 20: Bahrain Energy Use by Sector 2020 ............................................................ 36 Figure 21: Bahrain Final Energy Consumption by End-Use Sectors, ktoe ......................... 36 Figure 22: Bahrain Energy Use by Sector 2025 ............................................................ 36 Figure 23: Bahrain Energy Consumption Trends by Sector ............................................. 37 Figure 24: Bahrain EE Potential, 2012 ......................................................................... 38 Figure 25: Bahrain Projected EE Potential, 2025 ........................................................... 40 Figure 26: Bahrain EE Potential 2012-2025 ................................................................. 40 Figure 27: Egypt Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage .............................. 41 Figure 28: Egypt Energy Use by Sector 2020 ............................................................... 42 Figure 29: Egypt Final Energy Consumption by End-Use Sectors, ktoe ............................ 42 Figure 30: Egypt Energy Use by Sector 2025 ............................................................... 42 Figure 31: Egypt Energy Consumption Trends by Sector ............................................... 43 Figure 32: Egypt EE Potential, 2012 ........................................................................... 44 Figure 33: Egypt Projected EE Potential, 2025 ............................................................. 46 Figure 34: Egypt EE Potential 2012-2025 .................................................................... 46 Figure 35: Iraq Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2011, Percentage ................................ 49 Figure 36: Iraq Energy Use by Sector 2020 ................................................................. 50 Figure 37: Iraq Final Energy Consumption by End-Use Sectors, ktoe .............................. 50 Figure 38: Iraq Energy Use by Sector 2025 ................................................................. 50 Figure 39: Iraq Energy Consumption Trends by Sector .................................................. 51 Figure 40: Iraq EE Potential, 2012 .............................................................................. 52 Figure 41: Iraq Projected EE Potential, 2025 ................................................................ 54 Figure 42: Iraq EE Potential 2012-2025 ...................................................................... 54 Figure 43: Jordan Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage ............................. 55 Figure 44: Jordan Energy Use by Sector 2020 .............................................................. 56 146 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 45: Jordan Final Energy Consumption by End-Use Sectors, ktoe ........................... 56 Figure 46: Jordan Energy Use by Sector 2025 .............................................................. 56 Figure 47: Jordan Energy Consumption Trends by Sector .............................................. 57 Figure 48: Jordan EE Potential, 2012 .......................................................................... 58 Figure 49: Jordan Projected EE Potential, 2025 ............................................................ 60 Figure 50: Jordan EE Potential 2012-2025 ................................................................... 60 Figure 51: Kuwait Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage ............................. 65 Figure 52: Kuwait Energy Use by Sector 2020 ............................................................. 66 Figure 53: Kuwait Final Energy Consumption by End-Use Sectors, ktoe ........................... 66 Figure 54: Kuwait Energy Use by Sector 2025 ............................................................. 66 Figure 55: Kuwait Energy Consumption Trends by Sector .............................................. 67 Figure 56: Kuwait EE Potential, 2012 .......................................................................... 68 Figure 57: Kuwait Projected EE Potential, 2025 ............................................................ 70 Figure 58: Kuwait EE Potential 2012-2025................................................................... 70 Figure 59: Lebanon Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage .......................... 71 Figure 60: Lebanon Energy Use by Sector 2020 ........................................................... 72 Figure 61: Lebanon Final Energy Consumption for End-Use Sectors, ktoe ........................ 72 Figure 62: Lebanon Energy Use by Sector 2025 ........................................................... 72 Figure 63: Lebanon Energy Consumption Trends by Sector............................................ 73 Figure 64: Lebanon EE Potential, 2012 ........................................................................ 74 Figure 65: Lebanon Projected EE Potential, 2025.......................................................... 76 Figure 66: Lebanon EE Potential 2012-2025 ................................................................ 76 Figure 67: Libya Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2011, Percentage ............................... 80 Figure 68: Libya Energy Use by Sector 2020................................................................ 81 Figure 69: Libya Final Energy Consumption for End-use Sectors, ktoe ............................. 81 Figure 70: Libya Energy Use by Sector 2025 ................................................................ 81 Figure 71: Libya Energy Consumption Trends by Sector ................................................ 82 Figure 72: Libya EE Potential, 2012 ............................................................................ 83 Figure 73: Libya Projected EE Potential, 2025 .............................................................. 85 Figure 74: Libya EE Potential 2012-2025 ..................................................................... 85 Figure 75: Morocco Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage ........................... 86 Figure 76: Morocco Energy Use by Sector 2020 ........................................................... 87 Figure 77: Final Energy Consumption for End-use Sectors ............................................. 87 Figure 78: Morocco Energy Use by Sector 2025 ........................................................... 87 Figure 79: Morocco Energy Consumption Trends by Sector ............................................ 88 Figure 80: Morocco EE Potential, 2012 ........................................................................ 89 Figure 81: Morocco Projected EE Potential, 2025 .......................................................... 91 Figure 82: Morocco EE Potential 2012-2025................................................................. 91 Figure 83: Oman Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage .............................. 95 Figure 84: Oman Energy Use by Sector 2020 ............................................................... 96 Figure 85 : Oman final Energy Consumption for End-use Sectors, ktoe ........................... 96 Figure 86: Oman Energy Use by Sector 2025 ............................................................... 96 Figure 87: Oman Energy Consumption Trends by Sector ............................................... 97 Figure 88: Oman EE Potential, 2012 ........................................................................... 98 Figure 89: Oman Projected EE Potential, 2025 ........................................................... 100 Figure 90: Oman EE Potential 2012-2025 .................................................................. 100 147 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 91: Palestine Energy Use by Sector, 2001 and 2011, Percentage ........................ 101 Figure 92: Palestine Energy Use by Sector 2020 ........................................................ 102 Figure 93 : Final Energy Consumption for End-use Sectors, ktoe .................................. 102 Figure 94: Palestine Energy Use by Sector 2025 ........................................................ 102 Figure 95: Palestine Energy Consumption Trends by Sector ......................................... 103 Figure 96: Palestine EE Potential, 2011 ..................................................................... 104 Figure 97: Palestine Projected EE Potential, 2025 ....................................................... 106 Figure 98: Palestine EE Potential 2011-2025.............................................................. 106 Figure 99 : Qatar Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, percentage ........................... 107 Figure 100: Qatar Energy Use by Sector 2020 ........................................................... 108 Figure 101: Qatar Final Energy Consumption for End-use Sectors ................................ 108 Figure 102: Qatar Energy Use by Sector 2025 ........................................................... 108 Figure 103: Qatar Energy Consumption Trends by Sector ............................................ 109 Figure 104: Qatar EE Potential, 2012 ........................................................................ 110 Figure 105: Qatar Projected EE Potential, 2025 .......................................................... 112 Figure 106: Qatar EE Potential 2012-2025................................................................. 112 Figure 107: Saudi Arabia Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage ................. 113 Figure 108: Saudi Arabia Energy Use by Sector 2020 ................................................. 114 Figure 109: Saudi Arabia Final Energy Consumption by End-use Sector ........................ 114 Figure 110: Saudi Arabia Energy Use by Sector 2025 ................................................. 114 Figure 111: Saudi Arabia Energy Consumption Trends by Sector .................................. 115 Figure 112: Saudi Arabia 2012 Total EE Potential ....................................................... 116 Figure 113: Saudi Arabia Projected EE Potential, 2025 ................................................ 118 Figure 114: Saudi Arabia EE Potential 2012-2025 ....................................................... 118 Figure 115 : Sudan Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2011, Percentage ......................... 119 Figure 116: Sudan Energy Use by Sector 2020 .......................................................... 120 Figure 117: Sudan Final Energy Consumption for End-use Sectors ............................... 120 Figure 118: Sudan Energy Use by Sector 2025 .......................................................... 120 Figure 119: Sudan Energy Consumption Trends by Sector ........................................... 121 Figure 120: Sudan EE Potential, 2011 ....................................................................... 122 Figure 121: Sudan Projected EE Potential, 2025 ......................................................... 124 Figure 122: Sudan EE Potential 2011-2025................................................................ 124 Figure 123: Tunisia Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage ......................... 125 Figure 124: Tunisia Energy Use by Sector 2020 ......................................................... 126 Figure 125: Tunisia Final energy Consumption for End-use Sectors .............................. 126 Figure 126: Tunisia Energy Use by Sector 2025 ......................................................... 126 Figure 127: Tunisia Energy Consumption Trends by Sector .......................................... 127 Figure 128: Tunisia EE Potential, 2012 ...................................................................... 128 Figure 129: Tunisia Projected EE Potential, 2025 ........................................................ 130 Figure 130: Tunisia EE Potential 2012-2025 .............................................................. 130 Figure 131: UAE Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage ............................. 134 Figure 132: UAE Energy Use by Sector 2020 ............................................................. 135 Figure 133: UAE Final Energy Consumption for End-use Sectors................................... 135 Figure 134: UAE Energy Use by Sector 2025 ............................................................. 135 Figure 135: UAE Energy Consumption Trends by Sector .............................................. 136 Figure 136: UAE EE Potential, 2012 .......................................................................... 137 148 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Figure 137: UAE Projected EE Potential, 2025 ............................................................ 139 Figure 138: UAE EE Potential 2012-2025 ................................................................... 139 Figure 139: Yemen Energy Use by Sector, 2000 and 2012, Percentage ......................... 140 Figure 140: Yemen Energy Use by Sector 2020 .......................................................... 141 Figure 141: Yemen Final Energy Consumption for End-use Sectors, ktoe ....................... 141 Figure 142: Yemen Energy Use by Sector 2025 .......................................................... 141 Figure 143: Yemen Energy Consumption Trends by Sector .......................................... 142 Figure 144: Yemen EE Potential, 2012 ...................................................................... 143 Figure 145: Yemen Projected EE Potential, 2025 ........................................................ 145 Figure 146: Yemen EE Potential 2012-2025 ............................................................... 145 List of tables Table 1: Data Availability and Sources for Estimating Energy Demand Projections .............. 9 Table 2: Data Availability and Sources for Estimating Energy Savings Potential ................ 11 Table 3: Availability of EE Indicators for Energy Intensive Industrial Products 2000-2012 .. 12 Table 4: Availability of EE Indicators for Road Transport Sectors (Personal Cars) 2000-2012 .............................................................................................................................. 12 Table 5: Electricity Efficiency Potential Abatement Investment Cost, and Net Abatement Cost by End-use Sectors and EE Technologies .............................................................. 17 Table 6: Electricity Efficiency Potential, Investment Cost and Net Abatement Cost by EE Technologies ........................................................................................................... 17 Table 7: Reductions in Electricity Expenditures and Avoided Power Investments .............. 18 Table 8: MENA EE Potential ....................................................................................... 23 Table 9: Assessment of EE Deployment of Technologies and Measures by Sector ............. 25 Table 10: EE Potential in the MENA Region in 2012....................................................... 25 Table 11: MENA EE potential 2020, 2025 .................................................................... 26 Table 12: Algeria EE Potential, 2011 ........................................................................... 32 Table 13: Bahrain EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 .................................................................. 38 Table 14: Egypt EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 ..................................................................... 44 Table 15: Electricity Efficiency Potential Abatement Investment Costs by End-Use Sectors and EE Technologies for Egypt over the Period 2012-2020 ............................................ 47 Table 16: Electricity Efficiency Potential and Net Abatement Cost by EE Technologies for Egypt Over the Period 2012-2020 .............................................................................. 47 Table 17: Reductions in Electricity Expenditures and Avoided Power Investments for Egypt over the Period 2012-2020 ........................................................................................ 48 Table 18: Iraq EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 ....................................................................... 52 Table 19: Jordan EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 ................................................................... 58 Table 20: Electricity Efficiency Potential Abatement Investment Costs by End-Use Sectors and EE Technologies for Jordan over the Period 2012-2020 ........................................... 61 Table 21: Electricity Efficiency Potential and Net Abatement Cost by EE Technologies for Jordan over the Period 2012-2020.............................................................................. 62 Table 22: Reductions in Electricity Expenditures and Avoided Power Investments for Jordan over the Period 2012-2020 ........................................................................................ 63 Table 23: Kuwait EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 ................................................................... 68 Table 24: Lebanon EE Potential ktoe, 2012 .................................................................. 74 149 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Table 25: Electricity Efficiency Potential Abatement Investment Costs by End-Use Sectors and EE Technologies for Lebanon over the Period 2012-2020......................................... 77 Table 26: Electricity Efficiency Potential and Net Abatement Cost by EE technologies for Lebanon over the Period 2012-2020 ........................................................................... 78 Table 27: Reductions In Electricity Expenditures and Avoided Power Investments for Lebanon over the Period 2012-2020 ........................................................................... 78 Table 28: Libya EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 ..................................................................... 83 Table 29: Morocco EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 ................................................................. 89 Table 30: Electricity Efficiency Potential Abatement Investment Costs by End-Use Sectors and EE Technologies for Morocco over the Period 2012-2020 ......................................... 92 Table 31: Electricity Efficiency Potential and Net Abatement Cost by EE Technologies for Morocco over the Period 2012-2020 ........................................................................... 93 Table 32: Reductions in Electricity Expenditures and Avoided Power Investments for Morocco over the Period 2012-2020 ........................................................................... 93 Table 33: Oman EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 .................................................................... 98 Table 34: Palestine EE Potential, ktoe, 2011 .............................................................. 104 Table 35: Qatar EE potential, ktoe, 2012 ................................................................... 110 Table 36: Saudi Arabia EE potential, ktoe, 2012 ......................................................... 116 Table 37: Sudan EE Potential, ktoe, 2011 .................................................................. 122 Table 38: Tunisia EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 ................................................................. 128 Table 39: Electricity Efficiency Potential Abatement Investment Costs by End-Use Sectors and EE Technologies for Tunisia over the Period 2012-2020......................................... 131 Table 40: Electricity Efficiency Potential and Net Abatement Cost by EE Technologies for Tunisia over the Period 2012-2020 ........................................................................... 132 Table 41: Reductions in Electricity Expenditures and Avoided Power Investments for Tunisia over the Period 2012-2020 ...................................................................................... 132 Table 42: UAE EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 ..................................................................... 137 Table 43: Yemen EE Potential, ktoe, 2012 ................................................................. 143 Table 44: Final Energy Intensity Benchmarks for the Tertiary Sector in Various MENA Countries (in kgoe/1,000 USD 2000) ........................................................................ 158 Table 45: Final Energy Intensity Benchmarks for the Residential Sector in Various MENA Countries (in kgoe/1,000 USD 2000) ........................................................................ 159 Table 46: Specific Consumption of Energy Benchmarks for the Residential Sector in Various MENA Countries- Horizon 2025 (kgoe/m2/y) .............................................................. 159 Table 47: Detailed Table Explaining the Approach by Sector ........................................ 161 150 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Annex A: Data Sources National Algeria Office National des Statistiques, Economic Statistics Ministry of Energy and Mines, Statistical Report Sonelgaz, Annual Report Bahrain Central Informatics Organization, Directorate of Statistics, Statistical Abstract; and Bahrain in figures National Oil and Gas Authority, Annual Reports Bahrain Petroleum Company, Annual Review Egypt Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS), Ministry of Electricity and Energy, Egyptian Electricity Holding Company, Annual Report Iraq Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology, Annual Abstract of Statistics Ministry of Oil, Annual Report Jordan Department of Statistics, Statistical Yearbook. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Energy facts and figures; and Annual Report Kuwait Central Statistical Bureau, Statistical Bulletin Ministry of Oil, Oil Documents, Facts and Figures Ministry of Electricity and Water, Statistics Lebanon Central Administration for Statistics, Statistical Bulletin; and Statistical Yearbook Morocco Haut Commissariat au Plan, Statistical Reports Ministry of Energy, Mines, Water and Environment, Annual Reports, Energy Balances Oman Ministry of National Economy, Statistical Yearbook Authority for Electricity Regulation, Oman, Annual Report Palestine Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, Household Energy Survey; Palestine in Figures; Statistical Abstract of Palestine; Energy Consumption Report; and Population, Housing and Establishments Census Qatar Statistics Authority, Annual Statistical Abstract and Qatar in Figures Ministry of Energy and Industry, 151 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Saudi Arabia Central Department of Statistics, Statistical Yearbook Ministry of Industry and Electricity, Electricity & Development in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Saudi Electric Company, Annual Report Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas statistics Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Yearbook and The Sudan in Figures Tunisia National Institute of Statistics, Energy Statistics STEG, Electricity and Natural Gas Statistics L’Entreprise Tunisienne d’Activités Pétrolières, Annual Reports STIR, Annual Reports Agence Nationale pour la Maitrise de L'Energie, Chiffres Clés United Arab Emirates National Bureau of Statistics, Annual Abstract Federal Electricity and Water Agency, Annual Reports, Statistics Yemen Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, Central Statistical Organization, Statistical Yearbook National Information Centre, Electricity, Oil and Gas Data and Indicators Ministry of Oil and Minerals, Statistical Data Regional - Regional Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (RCREEE), RCREEE Indicators Database (2012 – 2013) - Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), Statistical Abstract - International Energy Agency - Energy Statistics of Non-OECD Countries; Energy Balances for non-OECD countries (2000-2012) - IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances, http://www.oecd- ilibrary.org/statistics;jsessionid=1662shtur3mrp.x-oecd-live-01 - World energy outlook - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Annual Statistical Bulletin - Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), Annual Statistical Report - OAPEC on-line database: http://oapecdb.oapecorg.org:8085/apex/f?p=112:8 - British Petroleum, Statistical Review of World Energy 152 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential - League of Arab States, Arab Industrial Development and Mining Organization, Electrical Energy Database - Unified Arab Economic Report - Arab Union of Producers, Transporters and Distributors of Electricity, Statistical Bulletin - Budget Allocation Chart (BAC), MED-ENEC and MED-EMIP (Annex C) - Study Pathways for a low-carbon economy, Mc Kinsey for WWF, 2009 - Levelized cost of electricity renewable energy technologies study, Fraunhofer Institut for solar energy systems, ISI, November 2013 - Combined Heat and Power, ETSAP, IEA, May 2010 Other sources - US Energy Information Administration - International Energy Statistics : http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm# - Earth Trends Database - Arab Petroleum Research Centre, Arab Oil and Gas Directory 153 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Annex B: EE Potential Sectoral Assumptions Energy sector: While data availability is generally higher in the MENA energy sectors, in particular in the electricity sectors including in the GCC, the existence of EE indicators is less common despite the significant or event dominant share of the sector in primary energy consumption for hydrocarbon exporting countries. EE indicators measure the efficiency of complex energy transformation processes of a relatively limited number of units such as power plants and oil refineries. In most MENA countries, the energy sector accounts for a large share of the primary energy consumption and is dominant in hydrocarbon exporter countries. Power generation: A synthetic and common EE indicator for this subsector is the power generation efficiency, or the ratio between total fuel input and generated electricity, including RE sources. It indicates the overall efficiency of the power generation system, not only of thermal power plants. While this indicator is relevant for an overall regional and international comparison of thermal power generation, the specific structure (i.e. technology and fuels), base load, age of the power plants stock, national power mix, and data and methodological issues such as accounting of plant energy consumption accounted make difficult to adopt a regional benchmark as a reference to estimate each country EE potential. This synthetic or aggregated EE indicator as benchmark is more relevant when the structure and conditions are comparable between countries. For instance, relatively high power generation efficiency in a relatively new power generation sector, few large units, and stable base load may not be a relevant benchmark for a sector with different structural characteristics. Thus, country-tailored benchmarks for power generation efficiency have been set and are based on the characteristics of the existing domestic generation system with a focus on the most important or representative plants and its technical potential for improvements, including fuel mix. Electricity transmission and distribution: In a similar way, the electricity transmission and distribution losses (i.e. the ratio between electricity generated or injected to the grid and delivered) are frequently calculated and used. Nonetheless, some issues exist whether to utilize this indicator as commercial losses or unpaid electricity may result in an erroneous assessment and comparisons between countries. What is more, data may not be available for transmission and distribution losses, although the respective EE potential and related abatement measures are quite different. While the characteristics of the electricity transmission, distribution systems, and load use may differ between MENA countries in regards to power generation, the comparison of the level of transmission and distribution losses is an effective measure to assess the grid efficiency and its potential for improvements. Thus, instead of a MENA regional benchmark based on the most performing system, it appears preferable to refine it by sub-region or sub-groups. A first group may include relatively small and recent power grids (e.g. GCC) 154 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential while a second one would include established and developed medium to large power grids (Maghreb countries). In the case of Jordan, its electricity transmission and distribution losses reached 2.2 TWh or 199 ktoe in 2012, 17.3 percent of electricity generated. The actual transmission losses are at 4 percent, while the sub-regional benchmark considered in this second group of countries was set at 3 percent. The actual distribution losses were 13.3 percent while the benchmark was set at 8 percent. This potential gain of 6.3 percent corresponds in 2012 to an EE potential of 14.3 ktoe and 75.3 ktoe respectively. An assumption in this case is that the EE potential applies simultaneously for the transmission and distribution systems, as the gains on transmission shall increase the electricity volumes injected to the distribution grid and thus the EE potential. Oil refineries and gas treatment plants: The assessment of energy flows in an oil refinery or a gas treatment plant for LNG differs considerably from the power sector. First, processes of those units are much more complex and include for refineries multiple output products. Additionally, auto-consumption of by-products and recovery of heat allow oil refineries to reach total efficiency of around 95 percent while international data indicates up to 97-98 percent in MENA and OECD countries. If the refinery purchases natural gas, then the efficiency can reach up to 99 percent. The oil refining efficiency is generally estimated based on the input crude oil and feedstock and oil product output derived from calorific values. It is usually not available by oil product, which would inform deeper analysis of the EE and thus its potential. Further to the generic data uncertainty for narrow relative gains (95 percent to 96 percent even if for significant energy input) and considering the diversity of refineries (size, age, maintenance), of crude oil types and of oil outputs profiles in the MENA region, it seems hazardous to make a comparable estimation of their efficiency and thus of EE potential. Thus, it seems to be not possible to include this subsector in this transversal study with insufficient data and methodological basis while it remains included in the energy balance. For a precise assessment on this subsector, individual in-depth energy audits of oil refineries gas and treatment plants are more appropriate tools to assess how energy is consumed and thus its EE potential by energy use and products. Energy end-use sectors: At the difference of the energy sector, EE indicators in end-use sectors assess the efficiency of energy used by a large number of consuming units such as households and individual cars for a broad range of products and services, providing a high number of possible monetary and physical references but also potentially making complex their elaboration and interpretation. Industrial: A first EE indicator for the industry is the final energy intensity of the sector, which consists of the ratio of total industrial energy consumption and total industrial added value. While data availability is generally good in most MENA countries and it includes the whole sector, this EE indicator appears too subject to the variations of the production value and types of products (more or less energy intensive) to be reliably comparable over time and between countries (owing to those structural sectoral differences). For instance, a light- 155 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential oriented industry would consume relatively less energy than heavy industry for generally higher added value, translating into lower energy intensity. Nevertheless, it does not indicate which industry uses energy more efficiently (at a thermodynamic level). Actually, the heavy industry may be more energy efficient as energy accounts for a large share of its costs and is used in large facilities (with economy of scale). Such physical or thermodynamic efficiency is better assessed by the specific energy consumption (generally in toe/ton of products). The RCREEE EE Indicators Study project already identified seven energy-intensive and relatively standard products: cement, steel, paper, sugar phosphate, super phosphate and phosphoric acid, the last three being more specific to the South Mediterranean region. Two additional products are also considered in this study: chemicals and glass. While specific energy consumption is a more reliable tool to assess EE over time series and between individual plants and countries) they require detailed data both on specific production and related energy consumption, which is rarely available in multi-product plants. Data availability and the limited energy consumption scope are the constraints of this indicator in this sector. In Jordan, the specific energy consumption for steel was 0,067 toe/ton of steel in 2009. A regional benchmarking indicates a target value of 0,055 toe/ton (based on three countries only), or a potential gain of 18.1 percent or an EE potential of 4.7 ktoe. Transport: Assessing EE in the transport sector is particularly complex owing to the number and diversity of consuming units such as private and company cars, passenger and freight vehicles, and local and international vehicles, as well as the lack of associated direct and reliable metering of both energy consumption and services realized (e.g. number of passengers and freight transported). The final energy intensity of the transport sector has, as in the industry, the advantage of covering the whole sector and modes but is constrained by similar weaknesses (evolution of monetary values independently of the energy consumption, strong differences in transport structure system between countries). Furthermore, the available final energy intensities are related to total GDP (not total transport sector added value). Thus, the final energy intensity of the transport sector appears as an insufficiently reliable indicator for this exercise at national level and for country comparison purposes. With road transport being the most important energy consumption and fastest growing subsector, specific energy consumption ratios were prepared with a focus on personal or private cars as data on commercial trucks and buses appear hardly available or reliable in the MENA region. This ratio of the average energy unit consumption of cars (in kgoe/car/year) include both gasoline and diesel private cars. Nonetheless, usually the related gasoline and diesel are total data that also include consumption of commercial vehicles, especially diesel for taxi, buses and trucks. Thus, as the diesel consumption is not ventilated between those vehicle types, in some countries the average diesel unit consumption of private cars may be significantly above the one for gasoline cars. Also, in various countries, fuel smuggling can have significant and impacts consumption data (underestimating when fuels illegally enter the country or the opposite when fuels are smuggled abroad). 156 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Despite those statistical limitations, a regional benchmark of 1,100 kgoe/car/year based on five MENA countries and the EU average (750 kgoe/car/year) is proposed. This translates in the case of Jordan for a potential gain of 17.4 percent and an EE potential of 169 ktoe in 2012 (equivalent to USD264 million). For other transport modes as railways, air transport, and maritime transport for passenger and freight, specific energy consumption ratios may also be prepared. Nevertheless, low availability and reliability of data in MENA reduce its utility. Tertiary: The definition of the tertiary sector in this study is based on the International Classification of Industrial Statistics revision 4 (ISIC rev.4), which includes wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, hotels (ISIC G-H), transport, storage, communication (ISIC I) and other activities (ISIC J-P). For this reason, subsectoral energy data and activities are hardly available without specific surveys. The energy balance provides energy consumption of the entire sector, without disaggregation by branches. Because of this great heterogeneity, activity data are either non-existent or scattered among a large number of institutions. Also, there is clearly a significant lack of specific studies and surveys dedicated to the main tertiary sector branches, which causes the partiality of available data. The main indicator developed for the tertiary sector is the final energy intensity. In this sector, the output is generally measured in monetary terms. Nonetheless, energy intensity of the tertiary sector is influenced by many factors, including climate of the country and the structure of the sector. For that reason, no firm conclusions are to be drawn from comparisons between countries. According to the study “Energy, Climate change and the Building Sector in the Mediterranean: Regional Prospects” (Plan Bleu, 2010), the average intensity of the tertiary sector for the southern Mediterranean region was 54 kgoe/1,000 USD 2000 in 2009 compared with 48 kgoe/1,000 USD 2000 in 2003, at an annual decreasing rate of 2 percent. Lebanon, where bank activity is highly developed in the tertiary sector, presents the lowest intensity (12 kgoe/1,000 USD of GDP41 in 2009). Banks have notably high added value with low energy consumption compared with other activities, such as hotels or commerce. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Morocco seems to have the highest energy intensity at 48 kgoe/1,000 USD of GDP in 2009. For the other countries, the intensities range from 33 to 57 kgoe/1,000 USD of GDP also in 2009. Based on a 2 percent annual decrease of energy intensity of the tertiary sector with the assumption that it may be uniform within this sub-region, the following country-tailored benchmarks are proposed over the projection period in the following table: 41 Constant year PPP, 2000 157 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Table 44: Final Energy Intensity Benchmarks for the Tertiary Sector in Various MENA Countries (in kgoe/1,000 USD 2000) 2012 2020 2025 Algeria 53 46 41 Egypt 37 32 29 Jordan 40 34 31 Lebanon 12 10 9 Morocco 37 32 29 Tunisia 30 26 24 Source: Plan Bleu For Jordan, the country-tailored benchmark of 40 kgoe/1,000 USD 2000 indicates a potential gain of 27 percent, which when applied to a tertiary consumption of 0.6 Mtoe indicates an EE potential of 164 ktoe in 2012. In a complementary way, specific energy consumption ratios based on total or subsectoral surface (kWh/m2/y) for the residential sector and on the number of employees ((kWh/emp/y) may be developed, taking into consideration the availability of related energy and physical data. Sectorally, other specific energy consumption ratios have been developed for specific sectors as for the hotels (kgoe/nigh guest) for several countries. Within the specific energy consumption ratios for public lighting and water utilities (generally under the administration responsibility or under concession) may also be prepared if coherent data are accessible. Residential: The residential sector generally includes as a large number of individual units, which make complex effective and representative data collection. For the residential sector, final energy intensity is defined as the ratio between the final energy consumption of the sector and the private consumption of households at constant prices (i.e. total households expenses). As for the other energy intensities, this sectoral indicator has clear limitations as it is also influenced by external factors, this case being the evolution of total household expenses, which are rarely connected with energy consumption. On the energy side, this indicator is also influenced by climate conditions, building type, appliance equipment rate, energy mix, or use of renewable energy. Thus, comparisons over time and between countries of residential final energy intensities have to be carefully reviewed. Similarly as the tertiary sector and based on the same regional study, a set of country- tailored energy intensity benchmarks for the residential sector is proposed in the following table: 158 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Table 45: Final Energy Intensity Benchmarks for the Residential Sector in Various MENA Countries (in kgoe/1,000 USD 2000) 2012 2020 2025 Algeria 102 144 130 Egypt 45 64 58 Jordan 47 65 59 Lebanon 43 60 54 Libya 41 58 53 Morocco 34 48 43 Tunisia 28 40 36 Yemen 47 66 59 Source: Plan Bleu In addition, the specific consumption of energy per area unit is also used to assess the EE potential (i.e. the ratio between the final energy consumption of the sector and the total area of the dwellings). Based on four climatic zones and three socio-economic categories developed by the study “Energy, Climate change and the Building sector in the Mediterranean: Regional Prospects” (Plan Bleu, 2010), the following country-tailored energy specific consumption country-tailored benchmarks for the residential sector are listed in this table: Table 46: Specific Consumption of Energy Benchmarks for the Residential Sector in Various MENA Countries- Horizon 2025 (kgoe/m2/y) Algeria 8.6 Egypt 5.4 Jordan 4.6 Lebanon 4.8 Libya 8.6 Morocco 2.5 Tunisia 2.8 Yemen 2.2 Source: Plan Bleu In the case of Jordan, the country-tailored benchmark implies a potential gain of 39.5 percent, which when applied to a residential consumption of 1.4 Mtoe indicates an EE potential of 548 ktoe. Agriculture and fisheries: For this relatively fragmented sector and multiple production types, the use of final energy intensity appears as a good option to estimate the EE potential. Final energy intensities of agriculture and fishing are based on those two sector’s added values. 159 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Additionally, when data is available and coherent, specific energy consumption for fishing is a valuable indicator but only few countries have such detailed data. Carbon dioxide intensity: The CO2 intensities of each sector and their average emission factors are also included. The calculations are based on the IPCC emission factors for primary energy sources such as crude oil, oil products, coal, and natural gas, while the CO2 emissions of the electricity sector are calculated through country electricity emission factors (kgCO2/kWh) from the technical paper on electricity-specific emission factors for grid electricity.42 For specific countries, such as Tunisia, CO2 emission data was provided by a national organization. The purpose of calculating CO 2 emissions of each sector is to identify the impact of using energy on the economy and the environment. 42 Ecometrica, 2011. 160 Table 47: Detailed Table Explaining the Approach by Sector Sector/subsector Indicators Unit Country Regional/internati Estimated Energy Excel Comments Coverage onal benchmark Savings Potential Sheet* for Jordan in 2012* 1. Energy Sector % KTOE 1.1 Electricity 1.1.1 Generation Average generation % All Country-tailored 3.8 135 Power Country-tailored benchmark based on efficiency benchmark- indicato the characteristics of the existing Jordan: 42% rs & EE domestic generation system and other Pot countries’ performance. Technology ² % and All Power generation According to power plants’ age, toe/MWh BAT technology and structure Fuel mix All with Fuel mix: with target little efficient fuels focus on (as crude oil) that may be replaced by GCCC other fuels as NG or RE (no transformation losses) 1.1.2 Transmission and Average losses broken % All (with Sub-regional T: 1% T: 75 Complementary data search and istribution (T&D) losses down between T&D and various benchmarks: D: D: 89.5 checking on T&D-technical and technical and commercial levels of Small/modern 5.3% commercial losses at sub-regional levels. details and power systems: The EE potential only applies on the reliability) T: 3% technical losses (not the commercial D: 4% losses). Medium-large power systems: T: 5% D: 8% 1.2. Oil refining Average efficiency of % All except Regional NA NA Oil Considering the diversity of refineries refining LEB, PAL, benchmark: NA refining (size, age, maintenance), of crude oil OMA indicat. types and of oil outputs profiles in the & EE Po MENA region, it seems hazardous to make a comparable estimation of their efficiency and thus of their EE potential. 2. End-use sectors 2.1 Industry Final Energy Intensity of TOE/1,00 All Country-tailored 22 249.8 Industr Indicator too subject to structural Industry Sector 0$ of benchmark- y differences (sectoral and product added Jordan:0.320 indicato composition) between countries. Set a value TOE/1,000$ rs & EE country-tailored-benchmark based on Pot the structure of the industrial sector, evolution and other countries’ performance MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Average Energy Unit TOE/t Inception Regional Assess 9 intensive product’s share in Consumption of selected Report’s benchmarks: TOE/t total industry’s energy consumption industrial products Table 5 (7+2 (7 industrial (e.g. JOR: 4%) energy- products+ intensive chemicals and Regional benchmark proposed products) glass) 2.2 Transport Final Energy Intensity of TOE/1,00 All Transp Assess fuel data consumption series and transport sector 0$ of ort estimate share of illegal fuel trading GDP indicato (export & imports) rs & EE Average Energy Unit kgoe/car IR’s Table 6 Regional 17.4 168.7 Pot Regional benchmark proposed Consumption of personal /year benchmark for all (all personal cars: diesel and gasoline) Cars personal cars: 1,100 kgoe/car/year Specific Energy kgoe/ consumption for railways p.km Low data availability and reliability. Specific Energy kgoe/ consumption for air p.km transport Specific Energy kgoe/ consumption for t.km maritime transport 2.3 Tertiary/services Final Energy Intensity of TOE/1,00 All Country-tailored 27 163.9 Tertiary Country-tailored benchmark based on Tertiary Sector 0$ of benchmark- indicato based on an in-depth regional study on added Jordan: 40 rs & EE the building sector43 value TOE/1,000$ of Pot added value Specific Energy kgoe/m²/ According to data availability: data on Consumption per tertiary y or total Tertiary/services’ surface (in million area unit or per kgoe/em sq. m) or number of employees, and employee pl./y total electricity consumption to be collected 2.3.1 Public lighting Specific Energy MWh/1,0 NA NA Data on lighted streets length (km) to be Consumption of public 00 km of collected (data may be hardly lighting lighted comparable between urban and rural, streets and between countries) Regional benchmark to be proposed 2.3.2 Water utilities Specific Energy MWh/hm NA NA Data on drinking and irrigation water 43 “Energy, Climate change and the Building sector in the Mediterranean: Regional Prospects ” (Plan Bleu, 2010) 162 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Consumption of water 3 pumping volumes (hm3) to be collected pumping Regional benchmark to be proposed 2.4 Residential Final Energy Intensity of TOE/1,00 Country-tailored Residen Country-tailored benchmark based on Residential Sector 0$ of benchmark- tial regional study on the building sector44. private Jordan: 65 indicato consump TOE/1,000$ rs & EE tion Pot Specific Energy kgoe/m²/ Country-tailored 47.7 662.6 Country-tailored benchmark based on an Consumption per y benchmark- in-depth regional study on the building residential area unit Jordan: 4.6 sector45 (with 1 climatic zone and 3 kgoe/m²/y socio-economic categories) 2.5 Agriculture & Fishing Final Energy Intensity of TOE/1,00 Country-tailored 12.8 20 Agricult Agriculture 0$ of benchmark- . & Fish According to data availability, Country- added Jordan: 0.28 indic. & tailored benchmark to be proposed value TOE/1,000$ of EE added value Final Energy Intensity of TOE/1,00 Country-tailored NA NA Fishing 0$ of benchmark added value TOTAL 20.3 1,650,7 44 “Energy, Climate change and the Building sector in the Mediterranean: Regional Prospects” (Plan Bleu, 2010) 45 “Energy, Climate change and the Building sector in the Mediterranean: Regional Prospects” (Plan Bleu, 2010) 163 Annex C: Budget Allocation Charts (BAC), 2020 (Source: MED-ENEC and MED-EMIP) MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 165 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 166 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential Annex D: Advisory group meeting results (Beirut and Marseille) 1- Comments on the methodology, assumptions and interim results (energy projections and EE potential): On data and definitions: - Definition of “tertiary” sector has to be clearly explained that it includes commercial sector as well; - Sources of data need to be clearly indicated in the final product; - Meaning of “EE potential for 2012” needs to be better explained; - The term “energy sector” in estimation of EE potential is misleading and needs to be replaced by more clear terminology to properly reflect power generation, transmission and distribution; On methodology and assumptions: - On the results of EE potential, it would be more valuable to have break-down of sectors into more detailed subsectors and products; - It is important to look at the technical potential, but it is also important to see who is willing to pay for this potential; - Why 2025? That’s not long enough, perhaps it is better to stretch projections to 2030 as most infrastructure projects are long term; - Energy demand projections should take into account policy developments in the country; - It is important to have coherence in estimation of EE potential. It needs to be specified whether the potential is estimated using bottom-up or top-down approach; - Conversion or transformation sector seems to be missing in EE potential, which is an important sector. Production of fertilizers and liquefied natural gas is quite significant in our countries. All these two transformation industries used the natural gas as feedstock and as fuel. There are new industry processes to improve the auto consumption in these two obsolete technologies in some oldest plants. There are 18 countries that produce and export LNG worldwide, and 7 of them are in our region as in Algeria, Egypt, Qatar, UAE, Libya, Oman and Yemen. - Theoretically, the gas auto-consumption of an LNG plant is about 12%. In Algeria it’s reached 25% to produce LNG before the launching of the revamping program in the 90s to improve EE in the existing LNG plants. This need to be followed in all LNG producers. In the other hand, the specific consumption to produce a ton of fertilizer is decreasing of -30% (from more1000 m3 to about 650-700 m3 by ton of fertilizer including feedstock and fuel). - Assumption on realization of EE targets in NEEAP in estimation of EE potential is invalid at least for Jordan because not much has been done and thus the potential might be underestimated. 167 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential On interim results: - The results for Tunisia are somehow close to similar assessment done for the country. This study should not be granted the scope larger of what it actually is; - EE potential in the residential sector of Egypt is probably underestimated because of large amount of unofficial/informal settlements that are not reflected in the official statistics; - The estimations for the Iraq are reasonable as they are based on the IEA data and all IEA data comes from the official statistics; - In Maghreb region, a study on ‘’Planification energetique dans l’Union du Maghreb Arab e - UMA’’ was performed in 1997 with the support of ESMAP program. The study covered Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco (named AL.TU.MA study). This study was based on MEDEE-Sud model and gave EE potential by country and by sector by 2000-2010-2020. For Morocco for example, the EE potential was estimated to 5.3 Mtoe by 2020 (23 Mtoe energy demand in BAU scenario compared to 17.7 Mtoe for alternative scenario). This result is not far from present estimation; - The results for Morocco are more or less similar with similar studies carried out for the country with difference of minus/plus 3-4%. Using results of the local studies for benchmarking would be a good thing. 2- Which sectors and why should be prioritized in your country for designing delivery mechanisms? 3- For the identified priority sectors, what are the challenges for unlocking the projected potential? Country Identified Priority Sector Challenges Highlighted - Lack of understanding of EE by industry groups - building codes lack EE specifications by building - Sectors that are paying types, there is lack of national capacity to work higher energy prices e.g. on these issues commercial segments - Lack of compulsory EE building code for (hotels, banks, hospitals etc) retrofitting existing buildings Jordan - Inefficient tendering processes, lack of - 1) Construction sector is a enforcement and compliance tools priority sector. 2) Industrial - No clear champion to lead and implement EE sector and 3) Agriculture, measures especially off-grid uses of - Lack of coordination between government and energy; private sector - Lack of financing mechanisms for EE 168 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential - If we take into account potential of energy saving, it appears that the leading sectors are residential and tertiary. If we take specific consideration, e.g. government policy of reducing subsidies, then we must help industrial sector and industrial sector Tunisia becomes a priority. Payback period is also attractive for EE measures in industrial sector. - There is a solid regulatory framework for EE in place. We need to launch different actions in different sectors in parallel, although some sectors are more difficult to address. - It is easier to target industrial, commercial and governmental sectors. Targeting residential sector is somewhat challenging due to Kuwait very strong parliament in the country. - From appliances, the biggest energy consuming product is air conditioners that largely contribute to peaks. - The priority for EE is residential sector, - Inefficiency and difficulty of the government especially lighting, because structures. electricity consumption - Lack of enforcement and compliance accounts for 42%. Also Egypt mechanisms. electricity sector is the sector - Components of appliances are not regulated. with best available data. - Weak EE governance and institutions - industrial sector is a priority sector (cement and petrochemical) 169 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential In Sudan priority sectors identified in NEEAP includes only electricity, although transport is a very large energy consuming sector. In NEEAP target sectors Sudan are network losses and buildings. The buildings have been chosen mainly for appliances (lighting and appliances). The peak is completely influenced by AC. Rehabilitation of energy Iraq production sector is a priority for Iraq. In Lebanon priority sector is residential because we have Lebanon growing market of real estate and this what we are doing with NEEREA, we are targeting SWH. - Morocco issued a lot of laws for EE, but these Priority sectors: manufacturing laws are general, and Morocco still needs and construction sectors application decrees/bylaws to bring into effect because regulatory framework is specifications of those laws. This legal gap is a Morocco in place and prices are high. real challenge that will further delay Home appliances are also implementation of EE in the country. priority (standards and - Capacity building: training domain is not in line appliances). with the ambitions and objectives Priority sector is commercial - Lack of detailed data and benchmarking Qatar sector - Heavy energy subsidies 4- General comments on priority sectors: - Regardless of the identified priority sector, the focus should be on business case to make the priority happen; - Sectors should be prioritized based on the pay-back time. In industrial sector there are many low-hanging fruits with short pay-back time; - Appliances are easy to target and implement in the building sector through import regulations; - Power generation (utility) sector should be a priority 170 MENA – Delivery Mechanisms and Institutions to Realize Energy Efficiency Potential 5- General comments on challenges: - Overall poor quality of data and lack of detailed data by sectors and subsectors - Lack of one single focal point in some countries for data collection - Lack of demand for EE services, and very little EE on the ground - Regulatory and institutional frameworks are fragile and incomplete - Lack of legal robust framework with sanctions and more targeted use of financial support to foster innovation in EE - Transport remains a sector where actions are difficult to implement because there is no reliable good public transport alternative, also the climatic zone are too hot which definitely requires AC in the car and increases the use of energy. Transport is a biggest energy consuming sector, but it is at the same time difficult sector to tackle. - Another sector with high EE potential is tourism sector. But this sector currently receives little attention in terms of policy and financial support - Low awareness about benefits of EE, today we are still on a short term vision - High initial capital costs and payback period is not sufficiently attractive - Lack of technical professional trained to the needs of industries 171