GRENADA Hurricanes and Earthquakes RISK PROFILE What is a country disaster risk profile? An estimation of the potential economic losses to property caused Snapshot by adverse natural hazards.  Inform disaster risk financing The hurricane risk Country Disaster Develop key baseline data in Grenada is more Risk Profile Evaluate impact of disasters significant than the Applications Promote and inform risk reduction earthquake risk. Annual Average Loss (AAL) Country At-A-Glance from hurricanes is US$ GDP US$ Population Total Building Exposure US$ (Replacement Value) 8.2M (0.9% of GDP) 912 million 106,000 2.1 billion and from earthquakes is Population Urban 36% Gross Capital Stock Public 20% US$ 1.8M (0.2% of GDP). Rural 64% Private 80% The Probable Maximum Loss for hurricanes (250 year return period) is Two representations of hurricane risk US$ 397M (43.6% of GDP) and for earthquakes (250 year AAL (in millions US$) 1.6-4.8 return period) is US$ 96M 0.5-1.5 0-0.4 (10.5% of GDP). Provinces by ratio (AAL/Province Exposure) lowest ratio nnnnn highest ratio Single-family, wood light unbraced post and beam Absolute Risk: The larger the circle, the higher the Annual Average Losses that the frame are the buildings most province could potentially incur over the long term. vulnerable to hurricanes, Relative Risk: The darker the color, the accounting for higher the ratio of AAL/Province Exposure. The darkest color represents the province approximately 20% of Carriacou which has a higher proportion of vulnerable structures due to construction of AAL. types and/or potentially higher hurricane intensity. GRENADA What is at risk? Building Exposure (in percentage of total) Economic assets such as residential and non- n 1.0 - 6.0 residential buildings are at risk. These assets n 6.1 - 10.0 that are exposed to natural disasters are n 10.1 - 20.0 referred to as a country’s Building Exposure. n 20.1 - 50.0 n 50.1 - 56.0 The map provides the value of residential and non-residential buildings in each province at risk from hurricanes and earthquakes. 250 Ivan (2004) What have been the historical losses? Historical Losses - Millions (US$) 200 Grenada has suffered significant losses from hurricanes. The direct losses have been modeled to 150 a high degree of accuracy in the risk profile. In 2004, Hurricane Ivan struck Grenada. If this historical 100 Janet (1955) event were to happen in 2016, it would cause a loss of US$ 230M, amounting to 25% of GDP. 50 Emily (2005) 0 The chart shows the direct actual and modeled losses due to 50 100 150 200 250 historical events. Modeled Losses - Millions (US$) What are the potential future losses? 700 600 The chart shows the estimated potential future losses in Grenada that could be caused by hurricanes and earthquakes for a given 500 return period. Millions (US$) 400 Hurricane 300 Ivan 200 This is the first step of quantification of contingent 100 liability. Next steps include determining its impact 0 on budgetary appropriation, which would directly Historical 50 100 250 500 1,000 Return period in years inform the development of the disaster risk financing strategy. n Estimated Losses Due to HURRICANES n Estimated Losses Due to EARTHQUAKES To learn more, visit: collaboration.worldbank.org/groups/cdrp or email cdrp@worldbank.org In collaboration with Financed by GRENADA © 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.