50772 Adapting to Climate Change in ECA Key Messages1 floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. The frequency and cost of natural disasters have increased Contrary to popular perception, ECA countries are dramatically in ECA countries. The concentration of significantly threatened by climate change, with greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere guarantees serious risks already in evidence. Climate change is that there will be more climate changes--even if all CO2 causing winter floods, summer droughts, melting of emissions in the world were to stop completely today, permafrost and glaciers, and is affecting hydrology. changes at least as large as those already experienced Risks from sea level rise, storms and other extremes, would still take place. and the risk of severe water shortages and desertification, are increasing. The ECA region suffers from a serious adaptation deficit even to its current climate due to socio-economic factors The vulnerability and adaptive capacity of ECA and the Soviet legacy of chronic environmental countries to climate change over the next two mismanagement. These issues have increased its decades will be dominated by socio-economic vulnerability to even modest global warming. For instance, factors and legacy issues--notably the dire the expected fall in the level of the Caspian Sea will environmental situation and the poor state of expose the population to highly dangerous substances infrastructure--rather than by climate change itself. (pesticides, arsenic) presently locked into coastal Even countries and sectors that stand to benefit sediments. Poorly constructed and maintained Soviet-era from climate change are poorly positioned to do so. infrastructure is ill-suited to cope with or protect people Many believe that warmer climate and abundant from extremes like heat waves and floods. While Turkey precipitation in northeastern ECA will open up new does not have these legacy issues, it suffers from agricultural frontiers. However, the current gap demographic pressures on fragile natural resources, and between potential and actual yields in ECA is much inadequate and vulnerable infrastructure. higher than any gains climate change can bring; the inability of Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine to close Climate Change Poses a Significant Threat to ECA the productivity gap does not bode well for their capacity to adapt to and benefit from climate change. Map 1. Projected Change in Number of Frost Days The next decade offers a window of opportunity for from 1980-1999 to 2030-2049 (A1B 8 GCMs) ECA to make its development more resilient to climate change while reaping co-benefits. Some impacts of climate change will likely remain manageable in the short-term but the costs of poorly designed or implemented policies could rise rapidly. ECA's Legacy of Environmental Mismanagement Note: Projections are based on a socio-economic scenario (A1B) of future population, economies, energy, and emissions developed for the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate projection data comes from the The climate is changing and many countries in ECA are general circulation models of 8 different research centers, distributed by the vulnerable as they are exposed to the consequences: World Climate Research Program`s Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project. Source: Westphal 2008 warmer temperatures, changing hydrology, droughts, Average temperatures across ECA have already increased 1 This note is based on a forthcoming report, Adapting to Climate Change in by 0.5ºC in the south and 1.6ºC in the north. Temperatures Europe and Central Asia, produced by the office of the Chief Economist of ECA. It was written by Marianne Fay, Rachel Block, Tim Carrington and Jane are projected to continue increasing by 1.6 to 2.6ºC until Ebinger. The report is based on the work of a much larger team which produced the mid-century, with the average number of frost days detailed background papers on specific sectors; it will be posted at declining by 14 to 30 days (Map 1). In the more northern www.worldbank.org/eca. latitudes, warming will be greatest during the winter and irrigation-dependent Central Asia. Precipitation months. intensity and storm frequency will increase. Thus, even as much of ECA faces possible droughts, floods are expected The southern parts of ECA are expected to see the greatest to become increasingly common and severe. changes in their summers (Map 2), with the number of hot days increasing by 22 to 37 days. This warming trend is Sea level rise will affect ECA`s four basins (the Baltic Sea, significant: by mid-century, countries such as Poland or the East Adriatic and Mediterranean coast of Turkey, the Hungary are expected to experience the same number of Black Sea and the Caspian) and the Russian Arctic Ocean. hot days (>30oC) as today`s Spain or Sicily, and summer Poland`s heavily populated, low-lying coast is vulnerable heat waves will likely claim more lives than will be saved to inundation of settlements, infrastructure, and productive by warmer winters. lands, as are the numerous ports and towns along the Russian, Ukrainian and Georgian coasts. Storm surge and Map 2. Projected Change in Summer (JJA) saltwater intrusion into aquifers threaten the Croatian, Temperature, from 1980-1999 to 2030-2049 (A1B 8 Albanian and Turkish coasts. In the Caspian Sea, water GCMs) level drops caused by increased surface evaporation will imperil fish stocks and affect coastal infrastructure. Increased temperatures and changing hydrology have already caused substantial forest loss, ecosystem degradation, and health threats in ECA countries. In Russia, 20 million hectares were lost to fire in 2003 alone. Note: See Map 1 For agriculture, net losses are likely for Southeastern Source: Westphal 2008 Europe and Turkey, the North and South Caucasus and Map 3. Projected Changes in Water Runoff from 1980- Central Asia. The warming climate is also allowing the 1999 to 2030-2049 (A1B 8 GCMs) northward migration of pests and harmful plant species. Malaria, which had been eradicated from Europe, is making a come-back, as are a number of once rare infectious diseases; meanwhile allergies related to pollen are projected to increase. Hundreds of deaths were attributed to the 2001 heat waves in Moscow and across Croatia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic. Socio-Economic Factors and Legacy Issues Make Note: See Map 1. The hatching indicates where at least 2/3 of the models agree with the sign of the change. ECA More Vulnerable in the Near Future Source: Westphal 2008. The resilience of a system--be it human, physical, or Water availability is projected to decrease everywhere ecological--to a changing climate is highly dependent on except in Russia, as increased precipitation in many the system`s current state. ECA`s ecological resilience is regions (except Southeastern Europe) is offset by greater weak due to decades of environmental mismanagement evaporation due to higher temperatures (Map 3). The most when economic growth was pursued in blatant disregard to dramatic decreases are likely to occur in Southeastern natural conditions. When water was needed for irrigation, Europe and Turkey (­25%). Even in the case of Russia, the rivers feeding the Aral Sea were diverted to the desert most of the precipitation increase is expected to occur in to produce rice, fruit and cotton. Uzbekistan became one winter--so it is still possible that higher summer of the world's largest exporters of cotton, but at the cost of temperatures could offset precipitation and lead to drought destroying the Aral Sea in the process. Today, the sand and conditions, particularly in Russia`s primary agricultural salt blown from the dried-up sea bed onto the surface of areas. Central Asian glaciers is accelerating the heat-induced Temperatures are warming at about twice the global melting of the glaciers, and Uzbekistan`s agriculture-- average in the Arctic, which could be completely ice-free sustained by a wasteful irrigation system--is extremely during summer by the end of the century. The melting of vulnerable to climate change. Poor management of soil the ice and of permafrost is affecting biodiversity, as well erosion, water resources, pest control, and nutrient as leading to coastal erosion and the collapse of exposed conservation are other weaknesses that make the ECA buildings and infrastructure. region agriculture system particularly vulnerable. Warmer temperatures also complicate hydrology, with Non-climatic factors, such as a legacy of inefficient water glaciers receding and less winter precipitation falling and use and continued unsustainable demand, will be the main being stored in the form of snow. This makes winter drivers of water stress in Europe and Central Asia over the flooding more likely in ECA countries while reducing summer availability of melt water, particularly in glacier next couple of decades.2 Poor land use and river basin Combining the three components into a single index of management, and not just increased precipitation, can vulnerability yielded the ranking shown in Figure 1a. worsen floods, and existing pollution increases the risks of Figure 1b uses a different scale to show how exposure and climate change. For instance, on Estonia`s coast, sensitivity increase, and adaptive capacity decreases, a radioactive waste at the Sillamae industrial center is country`s vulnerability. Thus, amongst the most separated from the sea only by a narrow dam that is vulnerable, Albania suffers from relatively high exposure, threatened by coastal surge. Landfills around the Black while Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic are estimated to Sea are pollution hotspots and coastal erosion could have social and productive structures that make them very increase the amount of pollutants flushed to sea, sensitive to the impact of a changing climate. Russia, with threatening the fishing industry. its vast territory, stands out for its high exposure and limited adaptive capacity being offset by relatively low Poor quality housing in several ECA cities (especially sensitivity. Soviet-era buildings with prefabricated concrete panels) could increase the human toll of climate change as heat Figure 1a. An Index of Vulnerability to Climate waves turn poorly ventilated buildings into furnaces and Change for Different ECA Countries heavy rains bring leaks and mold. Crumbling and badly managed infrastructure compounds the situation-- particularly in water and sanitation utilities. The power sector is hard pressed to respond to the peaks in electricity demand associated with rising summer temperatures. In addition extreme weather threatens the ability of the aging networks to function as intended. ECA`s poorly maintained roads and other transport infrastructure are also vulnerable to the stresses of climate change--intense precipitation destabilizes pavement subgrade and retaining walls, and long droughts can lead to settling around Figure 1b. The Drivers of Vulnerability to Climate foundations. Extreme temperatures also stress roads: in Change for Different ECA Countries Central Asia, truck travel has been limited during hot summer days when the asphalt softens. What Drives the Vulnerability of Different ECA Countries? A simple vulnerability index created for ECA countries combined three indicators that captured each country`s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change.3 The first indicator, exposure, was based on an index measuring the strength of future climate change Note: Adaptive capacity decreases vulnerability hence is shown here as taking relative to today`s natural variability, and was based on negative values. Slovenia has very high adaptive capacity, which is therefore both annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation large and negative, while Tajikistan has very low adaptive capacity, close to zero. The overall indicator is rebased to vary from zero to 25, to be indicators. The second indicator, a country`s sensitivity to comparable to Fig. 1a. climate change, was based on indicators likely to increase Source: Fay and Patel (2008). the impact of climate shocks (available renewable water resources, extent of air pollution, economic structure, ECA Countries and Sectors that Could Benefit from reliance on hydroelectric power, infrastructure, etc.). The Climate Change are Poorly Positioned to Do So third, adaptive capacity, was estimated by combining social (income inequality), economic (GDP per capita) and Areas in the higher latitudes--the Baltics, Poland, parts of institutional measures.4 Kazakhstan and Ukraine, and most of Russia (except for the North Caucasus)--could benefit from improved conditions for agriculture in a changing climate. The 2 Vörösmarty et al. 2000. potential for gains is uncertain, however, as it could be 3 The index uses principal component analysis (PCA) to identify important variables capturing sensitivity and adaptive capacity, as well as to combine all offset by increased variability and extreme events. three indicators into the overall vulnerability index. PCA is a statistical technique that weights the included variables so as to best explain the variance in the data. Many studies about future food production assume ECA The exposure indicator was from Baettig (2007) and uses a simple linear formula countries will help offset the decline in world production to combine the underlying variables. of staple grains resulting from decreasing yields in lower 4 The institutional measures are from the Worldwide Governance Indicators Project (Kaufmann et al. 2008) and include measures of voice and latitudes (also impacted by climate change). However, the accountability; political stability and absence of violence; and an aggregate current gap between potential and actual yields in ECA is governance measure of government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. significantly higher than any gains climate change can bring. The inability of Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine to The experience of these countries shows the importance of close the productivity gap or respond to the recent increase basing adaptation plans on an assessment of today`s in crop prices on world markets does not bode well for vulnerabilities to the current climate, and circumventing their capacity to adapt to and benefit from climate change. the paralysis that a highly uncertain future can inspire. Indeed, the key challenge will be to close the existing Another approach for handling uncertainty that is gaining productivity gap rather than ride the climate change wave traction is focusing on robust strategies`--meaning to a new time of prosperity. Increasing farm outputs by strategies that are robust to a range of possible climate expanding cultivation into newly temperate lands would outcomes.6 These strategies essentially amount to require large investments in land-clearing, production, scenario-based planning, with climate change policies marketing and transport infrastructure; instead, improving evaluated as solutions to a contingency problem rather the productivity of land currently under cultivation is the than an optimization problem. more feasible and beneficial place to begin. Policymakers should also involve stakeholders in climate Forests too show a similar pattern to agriculture: estimates change adaptation planning; it will help ensure that plans indicate that potential forest stock increases in Europe are implemented and adaptation concerns mainstreamed. from improved management and stronger forest Stakeholders usually have a good understanding of current institutions are two to three times the projected benefits vulnerabilities and ideas on how to reduce them. from climate change. There is also real risk of losses in In sum, ECA countries need to act. They can learn from forestry from expanded ranges of pests and forest fires. other countries on how to manage uncertainty and assemble the right participants and information to guide ECA Countries Can Make Their Development climate-resilient practices. In ECA, uncertainty, more Resilient to Climate Change and Reap Co-benefits complex risks, and opportunities for gain should be reasons for action rather than inaction. Much of the adaptation needed to make ECA more resilient to climate change has substantial co-benefits. References Improved water resource management, better performing water utilities and energy systems, and upgraded transport Australian Government. 2005. Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability: Promoting an Efficient Adaptation Response in Australia. Prepared infrastructure are needed, independent of climate change. by the Allen Consulting Group. Australian Greenhouse Office, The gains from improved agricultural practices would be Department of the Environment and Heritage, Canberra. many times more significant than changes expected from Baettig, Michèle B., Martin Wild, and Dieter M. Imboden, 2007. A Climate climate change. Similarly, cleaning up of environmental Change Index: Where Climate Change May be Most Prominent in the 21st Century. Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 34. hotspots, stepping up disaster management, and renewing investment in hydro-meteorological services would also be Fay, Marianne and Hrishi Patel. 2008. A simple index of vulnerability to climate change. Background paper prepared for World Bank report. beneficial for individual welfare and economic output. Washington, DC. Kaufmann, Daniel, Art Kraay, and Massimo Mastruzzi. 2008. Worldwide In the immediate future, ECA could focus on areas and Governance Indicators (WGI) Database. World Bank. Online at sectors vulnerable under current climate conditions. Policy http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.asp makers could plan actions with positive impacts for the Lempert, R.J. and M.E. Schlesinger, 2000. Robust Strategies for Abating population--actions that are clearly beneficial, regardless Climate Change. Climatic Change 45 (3­4): 387­401. of the climate change scenario. UKCIP (United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme). 2003. Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-making. Robert Willows and Richenda Connel, eds. UKCIP Technical Report. Oxford. However, some decisions are required today about long- term investments, under conditions of substantial Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury and R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population uncertainty. Thus, Albania, which derives 97 percent of its Growth. Science 289: 284­288. electricity from hydroelectric plants but faces an uncertain Westphal, Michael I, 2008. Summary of the Climate Science in the Europe and hydrological future, must develop a forward-looking Central Asia Region: Historical Trends and Future Projections. electricity strategy. Poland, with over five million poor Background paper prepared for World Bank report. Washington, DC. quality flats, needs a renovation plan. They can learn from 5 UKCIP 2003, Australian Government 2005 countries like Australia and the UK that have developed 6 Lempert and Schlesinger 2000 methodologies, standards and databases to help organizations and individuals create adaptation plans in the context of uncertainty.5 ECA Knowledge Brief is a regular series of notes highlighting recent analyses, good practices and lessons learned from the development work program of the World Bank`s Europe and Central Asia Region http://www.worldbank.org/eca