Global Monthly June 2018 • • • Percent Euro Area • 7 United States 6 5 • 4 3 2 1 • 0 -1 2012 2018 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2014 2016 • • • June 2018 Percent 6 World Advanced economies EMDEs 4 2 0 2014 2017 2012 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020 Index, 50+=expansion 55 Manufacturing output 54 Export orders 53 52 51 50 49 48 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jul-17 Apr-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Percent Trade Investment 5 4 3 2 1 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 -1 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2017 2000 2013 Percent Percent 2018 EAP 2019 2002 2017 2014 2018 2004 ECA 2019 Percentage points 2017 2006 2018 2015 LAC 2019 2008 2017 2018 2010 2016 MNA 2019 2017 2012 2018 2017 SAR 2019 EMDEs 2014 2017 Per capita growth 2018 2016 United States SSA 2019 2018 2018 June 2018 3 June 2018 Percent 75 Commodity exporters Commodity importers 50 25 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Percent probability 25 June 2017 GEP 20 15 10 5 0 1 percentage point 1 percentage point below above Percent Percent 4 Term premium (RHS) 3 10-year Treasury yield 2 3 1 2 0 1 -1 2013 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 4 June 2018 Percent of GDP Interquartile range 100 Median 80 60 40 20 2007 2017 2007 2017 Private non-financial General sector government Percent 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 Advanced economies EMDEs Percent of world 20 GDP Trade Population 16 12 8 4 0 CPTPP AfCFTA 5 June 2018 Percent 4.0 Output growth Per capita output growth 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Percent Percent 4 Advanced economies 7 EMDEs (RHS) 3 6 2 5 1 4 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Percent 4.5 ​ 4.0 ​ 3.5 ** *** 3.0 2.5 Spurts Setbacks Surges Slowdowns Growth Investment 6 June 2018 Percentage points 1.2 Average Median 0.9 0.6 0.3 3 years 5 years 10 years Percent Potential growth 4 10-year-ahead forecasts Actual growth 3 2 1 1998-2002 2003-07 2008-12 2013-17 Percent 40 Forecast error over 10 years 30 20 10 0 Actual Forecast Corrected Potential for bias 2010-17 2018-27 2018-27 7 June 2018 (Percent change, y/y) (Percent change y/y) UK 5/25/18 GDP Q1 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.4 % United States 6/28/18 GDP Q2 2.9 % France 5/30/18 GDP Q1 2.2 % 2.1 % 2.8 % Italy 6/28/18 CPI JUN 1.0 % Portugal 5/30/18 GDP Q1 2.1 % 2.4% Spain 6/28/18 CPI JUN 2.1 % Brazil 5/30/18 GDP Q1 1.2 % 2.1% Germany 6/28/18 CPI JUN 2.2 % United States 5/30/18 GDP Q2 2.8 % 2.6% Denmark 6/29/18 GDP Q1 1.3 % Spain 5/31/18 GDP Q1 3.0% 3.1 % UK 6/29/18 GDP Q1 1.4 % South Korea 5/31/18 GDP Q1 2.8 % 2.8 % Indonesia 7/2/18 CPI JUN 3.2% Indonesia 6/4/18 CPI MAY 3.2% 3.4 % 3.4% Turkey 7/3/18 CPI JUN 12.2% South Africa 6/5/18 GDP Q1 0.8 % 1.5 % South Korea 7/3/18 CPI JUN 1.5 % Euro Area 6/7/18 GDP Q1 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.8 % Brazil 7/6/18 CPI JUN 2.9% Japan 6/7/18 GDP Q1 1.1% 2.0% Mexico 7/9/18 CPI JUN 4.5% Mexico 6/7/18 CPI MAY 4.5% 4.6% China 7/9/18 CPI JUN 1.8 % China 6/8/18 CPI MAY 1.8 % 1.8 % Portugal 7/11/18 CPI JUN 1.0 % Turkey 6/11/18 GDP Q1 6.8% 6.8% United States 7/12/18 CPI JUN 2.8 % UK 6/13/18 CPI MAY 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.4 % Ireland 7/13/18 GDP Q1 7.8 % Germany 6/14/18 CPI MAY 2.2 % 1.6 % Spain 7/13/18 CPI JUN 2.1 % Italy 6/15/18 CPI MAY 1.0 % 0.5% China 7/16/18 GDP Q2 6.8 % Malaysia 6/20/18 CPI MAY 1.8 % 1.7 % 1.4 % Austria 7/17/18 CPI JUN 1.9 % South Africa 6/20/18 CPI MAY 4.3% 4.3% Euro Area 7/18/18 CPI JUN 1.9 % Japan 6/21/18 CPI MAY 0.6% 0.6 % Euro Area 7/20/18 GDP Q2 2.5 % France 6/22/18 GDP Q1 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.8 % Australia 7/24/18 CPI JUN 1.9 % 8 June 2018 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) 2.1 4.0 4.9 3.6 5.6 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.3 4.4 0.0 2.8 4.5 2.1 5.3 -0.1 3.5 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.6 2.6 3.0 3.2 2.4 4.2 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.9 8.5 5.3 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.1 5.4 5.6 6.6 6.5 5.4 6.3 0.6 2.7 3.1 4.6 1.1 5.8 3.7 1.5 2.4 3.8 3.8 3.2 2.6 2.4 3.8 3.5 3.5 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.0 5.3 7.2 9.2 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.4 7.4 5.9 6.8 5.9 6.2 6.2 4.7 5.4 10.9 6.3 6.5 5.9 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.7 5.8 7.3 7.2 5.9 7.1 4.7 4.1 1.4 8.0 0.0 19.5 5.0 0.6 3.3 4.8 5.7 3.2 3.3 3.2 8.4 7.2 5.2 7.7 3.4 5.9 8.5 5.9 6.7 7.2 6.8 5.5 6.7 7.7 7.8 6.0 5.8 6.5 7.8 7.5 5.8 5.9 -2.2 0.7 -0.7 3.4 2.6 3.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.4 0.7 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.9 2.9 4.2 -1.1 5.4 -2.1 27.0 0.0 -9.4 5.9 2.8 15.8 7.7 2.1 6.1 7.1 8.7 2.1 2.6 4.4 2.7 5.3 4.7 2.9 6.8 13.7 3.9 4.0 0.1 4.0 6.5 4.7 3.8 8.8 7.6 8.1 7.3 4.8 5.1 1.0 -0.2 4.3 3.1 7.6 -8.3 -1.8 -2.9 -0.7 1.2 -0.9 1.7 2.5 3.4 1.6 1.2 1.6 -1.3 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 0.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.4 1.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.6 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.4 2.1 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.1 1.9 0.4 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.4 3.2 3.9 3.1 2.9 1.8 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.1 2.2 2.8 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.6 4.4 3.8 4.5 3.6 3.8 4.6 4.9 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.7 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 4.6 5.3 5.1 5.3 4.8 4.4 3.0 5.4 5.4 5.4 4.8 5.1 4.9 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.3 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) -3.0 10.2 3.6 13.9 15.6 26.0 11.1 6.8 10.2 11.0 11.0 12.3 13.0 11.5 17.2 17.1 9.4 16.3 -0.8 9.5 2.8 17.2 12.5 23.6 10.2 6.4 9.9 10.8 10.9 11.9 12.9 11.4 17.9 12.4 11.1 16.3 -6.5 11.4 5.1 8.3 21.4 30.4 12.8 7.5 10.8 11.2 11.1 13.1 13.2 11.9 15.9 26.2 6.2 16.4 -8.8 17.2 -8.4 17.4 24.5 37.3 19.4 9.9 17.2 16.7 16.3 20.5 13.9 13.1 20.8 15.6 13.1 23.8 -4.6 9.1 11.2 4.8 20.1 27.7 10.2 6.5 8.5 9.1 9.1 10.2 12.9 11.3 14.1 30.4 3.6 13.5 -6.1 9.5 11.8 4.9 18.0 28.8 11.1 5.5 10.4 8.0 9.8 10.0 12.8 10.9 13.9 33.2 1.0 12.7 -6.0 16.4 -0.8 15.3 32.7 40.7 19.8 11.1 11.3 20.3 16.5 22.2 19.5 15.9 26.5 21.0 15.4 28.5 -2.3 11.9 0.4 7.0 16.4 24.2 11.6 12.6 10.7 11.7 10.3 15.7 9.3 8.6 12.0 12.1 10.7 13.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.6 5.6 -10.1 12.4 24.2 13.6 -1.9 -3.3 11.7 9.8 4.6 4.1 12.1 11.4 7.0 10.0 10.7 12.0 -13.5 14.6 -9.9 9.6 28.4 30.9 11.3 11.7 13.6 16.4 8.7 17.2 14.3 16.1 13.2 14.7 12.7 - -5.3 12.1 14.2 0.7 32.8 16.6 25.6 7.2 21.5 16.1 5.8 18.1 13.1 19.5 16.4 21.4 9.1 25.2 -3.4 9.0 5.8 13.4 19.5 23.2 10.1 5.1 10.5 8.8 9.0 14.4 14.0 13.9 18.7 15.3 12.0 18.7 -6.4 13.9 18.9 -5.4 40.5 13.2 34.3 8.4 27.8 20.5 3.9 20.2 12.7 22.7 15.1 24.8 7.5 28.8 -7.3 13.2 26.6 -10.0 47.5 3.7 39.4 7.2 31.4 22.5 -0.2 21.2 11.3 26.0 10.2 29.5 6.1 - -3.0 16.1 -3.9 12.2 19.0 51.6 16.7 12.5 15.7 14.3 17.6 16.6 17.7 12.3 32.4 10.9 12.1 18.2 -3.6 17.4 -11.6 13.9 17.7 68.9 17.1 13.4 15.8 13.9 19.1 17.9 18.6 9.7 37.7 9.2 11.9 21.5 -1.2 18.3 15.4 19.6 18.0 38.0 22.9 13.7 26.8 17.0 20.0 21.2 23.4 22.4 29.6 21.2 16.7 19.4 -7.4 8.2 -7.1 9.4 19.4 23.5 12.1 6.2 7.5 9.3 4.7 16.3 9.0 6.9 13.7 14.2 4.3 21.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -5.4 22.2 9.6 -8.5 34.8 25.7 29.5 13.2 20.5 21.0 18.5 10.9 18.8 19.0 24.3 11.8 7.5 5.1 -13.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -2.0 7.2 2.1 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.3 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 3.2 9.9 2.9 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 1.2 -0.5 0.5 -1.0 -5.2 5.3 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 -0.5 0.5 -0.2 -4.5 - 0.5 0.8 - - 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 - - - - - - -5.7 5.9 2.0 2.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 -0.7 0.3 -0.6 -7.3 5.3 1.7 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 -0.9 0.4 -0.5 3.4 10.2 3.2 3.1 0.9 4.4 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.2 1.0 -0.3 3.6 0.2 0.6 -0.5 1.4 2.7 1.7 1.0 -1.0 1.4 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.5 -0.4 -0.7 0.8 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -10.7 - -1.7 - - - -0.2 -0.3 -1.0 -0.2 - - - - - - - - 3.6 11.8 4.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 2.1 2.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -4.7 - 0.7 0.4 - - -1.2 -1.6 2.4 -1.7 0.0 0.8 - - - - - - 9 June 2018 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 0.39 0.97 0.92 1.13 1.17 1.40 1.01 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.27 1.38 1.38 1.45 1.63 1.63 1.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.74 1.26 1.20 1.32 1.47 1.93 1.26 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.36 1.43 1.61 1.73 1.87 2.18 2.35 2.34 2.33 -0.26 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 1.84 2.33 2.26 2.24 2.37 2.76 2.19 2.32 2.21 2.20 2.36 2.35 2.41 2.58 2.86 2.84 2.87 2.97 2.93 0.11 0.37 0.31 0.46 0.38 0.57 0.29 0.54 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.37 0.36 0.50 0.67 0.54 0.48 0.46 0.33 410 325 325 322 313 309 325 327 325 314 306 320 312 299 309 319 322 353 384 221 164 169 161 151 157 166 163 163 157 148 153 151 146 156 168 171 186 201 302 243 242 234 233 221 240 243 234 224 226 244 229 212 217 234 246 277 308 537 429 427 428 416 418 430 435 435 416 407 422 419 410 420 423 422 459 491 517 385 362 383 400 367 382 382 382 384 381 421 398 359 366 374 385 432 483 518 376 386 380 350 320 383 394 378 367 360 359 332 305 317 337 342 379 453 424 508 465 487 508 500 465 478 478 487 497 505 508 502 517 500 510 509 509 1761 2086 1916 2001 2086 2042 1916 1961 1960 2001 2037 2077 2086 2053 2113 2042 2087 2093 2106 2258 2668 2423 2519 2668 2590 2423 2470 2472 2519 2575 2648 2668 2631 2711 2590 2648 2729 2750 1475 1558 1534 1571 1558 1493 1534 1526 1512 1571 1600 1563 1558 1518 1522 1493 1556 1545 1535 19302 22530 20033 20356 22530 21203 20033 19974 19720 20356 22198 22730 22530 21650 21794 21203 22488 22095 22430 861 1139 1011 1082 1139 1167 1011 1066 1088 1082 1119 1121 1139 1158 1202 1167 1164 1121 1080 419 577 512 543 577 589 512 538 544 543 571 572 577 584 603 589 587 582 564 295 341 304 331 341 350 304 315 336 331 330 330 341 354 370 350 335 316 302 248 275 251 268 275 280 251 261 274 268 268 265 275 285 295 280 271 257 248 2341 2811 2544 2917 2811 3008 2544 2752 2873 2917 2809 2719 2811 2945 3095 3008 2988 2561 2407 0.90 0.89 0.91 0.85 0.85 0.81 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.85 0.86 108.80 112.11 111.10 110.96 112.75 107.94 110.91 112.31 109.78 110.80 112.93 112.81 112.51 109.83 107.96 106.02 107.62 109.72 110.13 3.49 3.19 3.21 3.16 3.24 3.24 3.30 3.20 3.15 3.13 3.19 3.26 3.28 3.19 3.25 3.28 3.41 3.64 3.75 6.65 6.76 6.86 6.67 6.61 6.35 6.81 6.77 6.67 6.57 6.62 6.62 6.59 6.41 6.32 6.32 6.30 6.37 6.49 10.12 17.85 18.10 17.77 17.71 17.68 18.11 17.92 17.75 17.65 17.64 17.68 17.81 17.74 17.67 17.63 17.68 17.83 17.86 67.19 65.11 64.48 64.29 64.71 64.40 64.45 64.44 63.97 64.46 65.07 64.85 64.20 63.72 64.44 65.06 65.69 67.49 68.38 67.06 58.31 57.17 58.93 58.47 56.96 58.10 59.72 59.42 57.66 57.76 58.97 58.70 56.93 56.81 57.15 61.01 62.28 63.86 14.71 13.31 13.21 13.19 13.62 11.93 12.91 13.15 13.25 13.17 13.71 14.06 13.11 12.15 11.82 11.84 12.10 12.52 13.75 119.7 119.6 120.7 116.6 117.5 114.1 119.4 117.9 116.5 115.5 117.5 117.7 117.4 114.7 113.7 113.9 113.9 117.0 119.6 55 68 64 65 75 82 60 62 65 68 71 76 78 85 81 81 88 94 94 80 84 82 84 85 88 82 83 84 85 85 85 85 87 88 88 90 90 90 88 87 87 86 86 89 87 88 85 86 86 86 85 88 89 90 92 92 92 64 79 74 81 84 88 72 76 83 84 84 84 85 89 89 85 87 88 85 43 53 50 50 59 64 46 48 50 53 55 60 61 66 63 64 69 73 70 1249 1258 1258 1278 1275 1329 1260 1237 1283 1314 1280 1282 1264 1331 1331 1325 1335 1303 1303 676 1152 1023 1138 1509 1171 861 906 1144 1363 1484 1455 1589 1234 1130 1149 1126 1289 1442 10