POLICY BRIEF POVERTY AND EQUITY PR AC TICE POLICY BRIEF 2021 One year in the pandemic RESULTS FROM THE HIGH-FREQUENCY PHONE SURVEYS FOR REFUGEES IN UGANDA © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. Authors: Aziz Atamanov, Theresa Beltramo, Benjamin Christopher Reese, Laura Abril Rios Rivera and Peter Waita. Photography © UNHCR/Rocco Nuri 1 O N E Y E A R I N T H E PA N D E M I C : R E S U LT S F RO M T H E H I G H - F R E Q U E N C Y P H O N E S U RV E Y S F O R R E F U G E E S I N U G A N D A What are the main impacts of COVID-19 and how can the URHFPS help inform policy planning and programming? IMPACTS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE POLICY OPTIONS LABOR MARKET AND INCOME One year after the beginning of the pandemic, Prioritizing the finalization of Uganda’s Private employment rates among refugees have not Sector Engagement Strategy for Refugees and Host returned to the pre-lockdown March 2020 Communities can help to better engage the private levels. This was in contrast to a full recovery sector to support the creation of jobs. of employment among Ugandans during the same period.1 These developments have widened the existing Providing targeted support to refugee and host employment gap between refugees and Ugandans to more community businesses and self-employed can than 50 percentage points. contribute to the mitigation of shocks while fostering job creation in refugee hosting districts. For example, COVID-19 related lockdown affected employment among providing reskilling technical and vocational trainings refugees in Kampala and the South West the most. While drops can help refugees get better jobs and wages right from in employment in the West Nile were largely driven by seasonal the start. changes. Ugandan family businesses recovered more successfully In the medium-term, a system that recognizes non- (though not fully) than among refugees. Ugandan qualifications, especially those from the region, would facilitate positive employment outcomes Overall, refugees were less likely to get labor income from farm, for both refugees and hosts. family business or wages than Ugandans. Refugees were also less likely to experience recovery in income levels making them Gender responsive approaches are needed to reduce particularly dependent on humanitarian assistance. the employment gender gap. Policy measures should Men were more likely to be employed than women both among aim at reducing the education gap for women, refugees and Ugandans. removing barriers to land ownership by women, and promoting female labor force participation through proactive measures to encourage firms to hire women, as well as supporting them to start and grow businesses – including through the provision of low-cost access to finance. 1 According to the World Bank-UBOS socioeconomic survey for refugees and hosts, in 2018, only 28 percent of refugees reported to be employed compared to 64 percent of host (World Bank 2019). Hence the employment gap between refugees and host community members has existed even before the COVID-19 outbreak. Importantly, the World Bank-UBOS socioeconomic survey covers employment rates of refugees overall, while for the phone survey it focuses on the employment status of respondents who in many cases are the heads of household. 2 POLICY BRIEF IMPACTS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE POLICY OPTIONS SHOCKS AND RESILIENCE Refugees experienced significantly more shocks Continue the roll out of shock-responsive cash-based than Ugandans. The most common shock among assistance to help refugees increase their consumption refugees was an increase in the price of key food options items, followed by illness, injury or death of income earning household members. Reducing food consumption remained the most frequently used coping strategy among refugees during several rounds. Use of savings as a coping strategy was almost non-existent among refugees, but used by more than 40 percent of Ugandans, suggesting a lack of savings to draw from.2 Compared to less than a quarter of Ugandan Remove barriers and increase access to formal financial households, at least half of refugee households services coupled with financial literacy programs to borrowed money to cope with the impacts of the support informed decision making while preventing COVID-19 emergency. Most refugee households households from falling into long-term debt. borrowed from friends, neighbors or saving Support the development of a shock-responsive social groups. Borrowed money was used by refugee households protection framework in Uganda that includes refugees mainly to buy food and to pay for health expenses. In Kampala, and Ugandans. money was also used to pay rent.3 2 Recall period was different across URHFPS (March-October/November 2020) and UHFPS (March-June 2020). 3 Recall period was different across URHFPS (March-October/November 2020) and UHFPS (March-July/August 2020). 3 O N E Y E A R I N T H E PA N D E M I C : R E S U LT S F RO M T H E H I G H - F R E Q U E N C Y P H O N E S U RV E Y S F O R R E F U G E E S I N U G A N D A IMPACTS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE POLICY OPTIONS Access to Basic Services and Food Food insecurity remains much higher among Strengthening digital connectivity and access to sim- refugees than Ugandans. Ration cuts coupled cards (and mobile money) for refugees will be key to with COVID-19 impacts deteriorated food security facilitate the ongoing transition to cash-based food among refugees substantially. It has gradually assistance. improved over the last 12 months but remains worse than in 2018. Among refugees, female headed households experienced lower access to food. Refugees had significantly lower access to medicine, Development interventions under the Comprehensive medical treatment and sufficient drinking water in Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) should target February/March 2021 than Ugandans. No significant areas where access to water, medical treatment and differences were found with regards to access to medicines continue to be a challenge to improve masks and soap. services across refugees and host communities. Most refugee children engaged in learning activities. As schools reopen, ensuring children transition back However, a sizable share of them engage solely in into school and are supported in higher potential activities with the lowest learning potential, such learning activities must be prioritized. as studying alone or doing homework provided by parents. Refugee households in Kampala were the most likely to have members who would not return to school when schools reopened. 4 POLICY BRIEF IMPACTS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE POLICY OPTIONS Perceived safety, Behavior, and Information Needs Refugees were less likely to feel substantial threat from COVID-19 to their households’ finances in February/March 2021 compared to October/ November 2020. Still, concerns remained very high and higher than those among Ugandans. Perceptions of safety at home among refugees varied according to country of origin. Burundian and Congolese respondents in South West felt less safe at home since the COVID-19 outbreak than South Sudanese and Somali respondents. Majority of refugees and Ugandans reported Continue to promote prevention measures against readiness to be vaccinated if free and safe vaccines Refugees Ugandans COVID-19 in refugee and host communities through would be available. Pre-Mar R1: Oct/ R3: Pre-Mar R1: R5: Feb various channels including radio, TV, social media and 2020 Nov Feb/ 2020 June 2021 NGOs. There was a decline in reported safe behavior 2020 Mar 2020 in both groups. More refugees than Ugandans 2021 Ensure development partners support to finance reported wearing masks all or most of the time when in public. Safe behavior (respondents, %) refugee and host community vaccination roll-out There is some evidence though that this might be substantially Avoid groups consistent with Uganda’s COVID-19 vaccination action overreported which raises concerns about other indicators of more than 83 56 91 41 plan. 10 people such as vaccine acceptance where chances of getting socially desirable answers are high.4 Masks wearing all or most of the time while 98 66 in public The most trusted sources of information about Agree to be vaccinated if COVID-19 among refugees include radio and NGOs. free and safe 90 88 Preferred sources vary across regions though. In vaccine is available Kampala the most trusted sources of information are TV, social media and friends while in camps, Mental health (respondents, %) refugees tend to prefer NGOs as trusted sources. Respondents with depres- 54 5 sion, % 4 This indicator is reported for December 2020 for refugees and for July/August 2020 for Ugandans. 5 O N E Y E A R I N T H E PA N D E M I C : R E S U LT S F RO M T H E H I G H - F R E Q U E N C Y P H O N E S U RV E Y S F O R R E F U G E E S I N U G A N D A IMPACTS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE POLICY OPTIONS Mental Health and Social Cohesion More than half of refugee respondents experienced Respondents with depression Mental health support is needed to target refugee depression symptoms, with a higher incidence needs. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy-based among female refugees, elderly, and those living interventions as part of skills development and in the West Nile region. More than half of those employment support can help address potential who experienced at least one depression symptom barriers to productive employment and self-reliance. felt it made their lives extremely or very hard. This is ten times higher than Ugandans. 54% 5% Refugees Ugandans Feb/Mar Feb 2021 2021 COVID-19 outbreak and restrictive measures to Social cohesion efforts under the CRRF need to focus curb the spread of the virus made interactions on the additional challenges posed by COVID-19 of refugees with their host communities less between refugees and host communities. frequent. This may have a negative impact on social cohesion and integration efforts, at least in the short run. 6 POLICY BRIEF What is the High Frequency Phone Survey for refugees in Uganda (URHFPS) and what does it track? The URHFPS tracks the socioeconomic impacts of the The sample for the refugee survey included respondents COVID-19 crisis on refugees. The World Bank (WB) in with active phone numbers that were selected randomly collaboration with the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) from the Profile Global Registration System (ProGres) of and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNHCR, and the refugee household survey carried out (UNHCR) launched and conducted the URHFPS. The by UBOS and the World Bank in 2018.7 URHFPS targeted to URHFPS tracked the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic achieve 2100 observations representative at seven strata constructed between October 2020 and March 2021.5 This brief as a combination of regions and different countries of origin: Kampala- discusses key selected results while providing policy options. Where Somalia, Kampala-other (Burundi, DRC, South Sudan), South West-Burundi possible and appropriate, findings are compared to Ugandans by using the (SW-Burundi), South West-DRC (SW-DRC), South West-South Sudan (SW- national High-Frequency Phone Survey (UHFPS) conducted by UBOS with South Sudan), South West-Somalia (SW-Somalia), and West Nile-South the support from the World Bank since June 2020.6 Detailed analysis from Sudan (WN-South Sudan).8 The realized sample sizes for three rounds the URHFPS and UHFPS rounds can be found in (World Bank 2020abc & were: 2010, 1852 and 1985 observations. To reduce the bias related to Atamanov et al. 2021abc) only interviewing households with phone numbers and non-response, the data from the 2018 representative refugee household survey was used to produce and calibrate weights. 5 Data was collected in three rounds, with the first one taking place between October 22 – November 25, 2020, the second one between December 5-24, 2020, and the third one between February 8-March 14, 2021. 6 The survey aimed to recontact the entire sample of households that had been interviewed during the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) 2019/20 round and that had phone numbers for at least one household member or a reference individual. 7 World Bank (2019). 8 Selected country of origins accounted for about 97 percent of all refugees in Uganda in 2020. 7 O N E Y E A R I N T H E PA N D E M I C : R E S U LT S F RO M T H E H I G H - F R E Q U E N C Y P H O N E S U RV E Y S F O R R E F U G E E S I N U G A N D A Bibliography Atamanov, A., Yoshida, N., Beltramo, T.P., Rios Rivera, L.A., Sarr, I., Waita, P. and Yoshimura, K. (2021a). Monitoring Social and Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Refugees in Uganda: Results from the High-Frequency Phone Survey - First Round (English). Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on Refugees in Uganda Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Available from: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/682171613766616044/Monitoring-Social-and- Economic-Impacts-of-COVID-19-on-Refugees-in-Uganda-Results-from-the-High-Frequency- Phone-Survey-First-Round. Atamanov, A., Yoshida, N., Alemi, C., Beltramo, T.P., Ilukor, J., Rios Rivera, L.A., Sarr, I., Hamud Said, A., Waita, P. and Yoshimura, K. (2021b). Monitoring Social and Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Refugees in Uganda: Results from the High-Frequency Phone Survey – Second Round (English). Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on Refugees in Uganda Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Available from: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/377241617082682333/Monitoring-Social-and- Economic-Impacts-of-COVID-19-on-Refugees-in-Uganda-Results-from-the-High-Frequency- Phone-Survey-Second-Round. Atamanov, A., Yoshida, N., Alemi, C., Beltramo, T.P., Ilukor, J., Rios Rivera, L.A., Sarr, I., Hamud Said, A., Waita, P. and Yoshimura, K. (2021c). Monitoring Social and Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Refugees in Uganda: Results from the High-Frequency Phone Survey – Third Round (English). Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on Refugees in Uganda Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Available from: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/473751621359136592/Monitoring-Social-and- Economic-Impacts-of-COVID-19-on-Refugees-in-Uganda-Results-from-the-High-Frequency- Phone-Third-Round World Bank. 2019. Informing the Refugee Policy Response in Uganda: Results from the Uganda Refugee and Host Communities 2018 Household Survey. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. World Bank. 2020a. COVID-19 Impact Monitoring: Uganda, Round 1. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34395. World Bank. 2020b. COVID-19 Impact Monitoring: Uganda, Round 2. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34762 © UNHCR/Rocco Nuri World Bank. 2020c. COVID-19 Impact Monitoring: Uganda Round 3. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34993 POLICY BRIEF