Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 115002-TJ INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY PERFORMANCE AND LEARNING REVIEW OF THE COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FOR THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN FOR THE PERIOD FY15-18 May 18, 2017 Central Asia Country Management Unit Europe and Central Asia Region The International Finance Corporation Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank Group authorization. The FY15-18 Country Partnership Strategy was discussed by the Board on June 10, 2014 GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Tajik Somoni (TJS) US$ 1 = Somon 8.10 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank IMF International Monetary Fund ASA Advisory Services and Analytics AF Additional Financing L2P Listening to the Poor CAEWDP Central Asia Energy and Water Development Program MOF Ministry of Finance CAMP4ASB Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral M&E Monitoring and Evaluation Sea Basin MPI Multi-dimensional poverty CARFON Central Asian Regional Fiber Optic Network  MTDS Mid-term Development Strategy CARs Central Asia Road links NBT National Bank of Tajikistan CASA-1000 Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and NGO Non-governmental organization Trade Project NDS National Development Strategy CE Citizen Engagement NRI Networked Readiness Index CPF Country Partnership Framework NPLs Non-Performing Loans NTC National Testing Center PAMPII Second Public Employment for Sustainable Agriculture and Water Management Project CPS Country Partnership Strategy PSARP Public Sector Accounting reform Project CSO Civil Society Organization PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability DCC Development Coordination Council PER Public Expenditure Review DPF Development Policy Financing PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability DFID Department for International Development PFM Public Finance Management DSA Debt Sustainability Assessment PRL Performance and Learning Review EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development PSD Private Sector Development EDB Eurasian Development Bank PSRR Public Sector Reform Roadmap ECA Europe and Central Asia Pilot Program for Climate Resilience EEU Eurasian Economic Union PPCR PPP Public Private Partnership EFA-FTI Education for All Fast-Tack Initiative Program FCV CCSA Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Cross Cutting READ Russia Education Aid for Development Solutions Area RETF Recipient Executed Trust Funds FSAP Financial System Stability Assessment RRA Risk and Resilience Assessment FM Financial Management RWSSP-2 Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project 2 F&M Finance and Marketing SCD Systemic Country Diagnostic IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute SDC Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation GDP Gross Domestic Product SDR Special Drawing Rights GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery SECO State Secretariat for Economic Affairs GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism SME Small and Medium Enterprises GP Global Practice SOE State Owned Enterprise GPE-4 Global Partnership for Education -4 TA Technical Assistance IPSAS International Public Sector Accounting Standards TajStat Statistics Agency of Tajikistan HIV/AIDS Human immunodeficiency virus/Acquired immune TF Trust Fund deficiency syndrome TJS Tajik Somoni HBS Household Budget Survey TSA Targeted Social Assistance HPP Hydro Power Plant UEE University Entrance Exams IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and UN United Nations Development UNDP United Nations Development Program IDA International Development Association UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund IDB Islamic Development Bank USD United State Dollars IDF Institutional Development Fund WBG World Bank Group IFC International Finance Corporation WTO World Trade Organization ii IDA IFC MIGA Vice President: Cyril Muller Dimitris Tsitsiragos Keiko Honda Director: Lilia Burunciuc Tomasz Telma Merli Baroudi Country Manager Jan-Peter Olters Moazzam Mekan Task Team Leader: Dinara Djoldosheva Manizha Mamadnabieva Persephone Economou Aimilios Chatzinikolaou iv REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN Performance and Learning Review of the Country Partnership Strategy FY15-18 TABLE OF CONTENTS I.  INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1  II.  MAIN CHANGES IN COUNTRY CONTEXT ........................................................................... 2  III.  SUMMARY OF PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION  .................................................................. 5  IV.  EMERGING LESSONS ................................................................................................................. 9  V.  ADJUSTMENTS TO COUNTRY PROGRAM ......................................................................... 10  VI.  RISKS TO PROGRAM ................................................................................................................ 12  VII.  ANNEXES ..................................................................................................................................... 14  Annex 1. Tajikistan FY15-18 Country Partnership Strategy Updated Results Matrix ........................... 14  Annex 2. Tajikistan: FY15-18 Country Partnership Strategy, Changes to original results matrix ......... 21  Annex 3. Tajikistan: FY15-18 Country Partnership Strategy, Results Matrix (original) ....................... 28  Annex 4: ASA Delivered and Planned ................................................................................................... 38  Annex 5: Planned IDA Lending and actual Deliveries for FY15-17 (USD million) .............................. 40  Annex 6: Citizen Engagement in the Tajikistan Portfolio (FY15-16) .................................................... 42  TABLES Table 1: Summary of Risks to the Bank Group Program ............................................................................................ 13  Table 2: IPF compliance with CE corporate requirements at appraisal ....................................................................... 42  Table 3: Citizen Engagement Country Roadmap Summary Table .............................................................................. 45  Table 4: IFC Committed and Outstanding Portfolio In Tajikistan .............................................................................. 47  Table 5: IFC New LTF Commitments FY15-FY17YTD ............................................................................................ 47  Table 6: Active Advisory Services Projects (As of September 2016) ......................................................................... 48  FIGURES Figure 1: Assessment CE quality in Tajikistan using objective criteria ...................................................................... 43  v I. INTRODUCTION 1. This Performance and Learning Review (PLR) assesses progress in implementing the FY15- 18 World Bank Group (WBG) Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Tajikistan, discussed by Executive Directors on June 10, 2014. The CPS’s principal objectives and three broad areas of engagement—designed to lay the foundation for Tajikistan’s transition to a new more sustainable development and growth model—are: (a) strengthening the role of the private sector; (b) social inclusion; and (c) regional connectivity. Anchored in the country’s long-term National Development Strategy (NDS) 2016-30, the CPS also supports the government’s Medium-Term Development Strategy (MTDS) 2016-20 and is aligned with the WBG’s twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. 2. Significant changes in the external environment as well as the country context affected program implementation during FY15-16. Externally, the recession in Russia, the depreciation of the ruble, and tighter immigration controls together caused a 33 percent drop in remittances in 2015 and an additional 15 percent during the first three-quarters of 2016, depressing household consumption, lowering imports, and generating fiscal pressures. Internally, the authorities, reacting to perceived security threats, introduced a number of legislative measures limiting media, political, and religious freedoms. Meanwhile, four systemically important banks became insolvent and were bailed out by the government issuing bonds totaling USD 490 million, equivalent to about 7 percent of GDP. As a result, because of the unsatisfactory macroeconomic framework and the government’s equivocal commitment to certain key reforms, preparation of the series of three development policy operation (DPO) initiated in early 2015 was recently suspended. 3. Notwithstanding the different external environment and country context, the CPS’s overall objectives remain relevant, albeit probably more challenging, with pillars and a results framework clearly aligned to the country’s development priorities. Progress towards key objectives is broadly in keeping with expectations despite ongoing governance concerns and some setbacks such as the delayed series of DPOs noted above and prospects for an overall satisfactory outcome by end-FY18 are reasonable. In this context, and especially given its economic, physical, and social vulnerabilities, Tajikistan’s transition to a new more sustainable growth model will inevitably be a gradual long-term process, requiring persistence and patience by both the government and its development partners; and, though some adjustments to planned FY17-18 lending are needed (cf. para. 51 below and Annex 5), no change in the CPS’ principal focus—private sector development, social inclusion, and regional connectivity, as well as governance, gender, and climate as cross-cutting themes—is required or proposed at this stage 4. Besides these overall considerations, three additional factors have informed this judgement and approach. First, partly due to hardened IDA financing terms, the Tajik authorities are now reluctant to borrow for non-revenue earning investments or technical assistance and their appetite for significant changes and/or new reforms appears limited, at least in the short-term. Second, a Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) is now under way and due for completion by early FY18. It will provide a robust analytical foundation for Tajikistan’s FY19-22 Country Partnership Framework (CPF), helping to ensure that the next CPF program remains focused on addressing the key constraints to sustainable growth, inclusiveness, and connectivity. Third, Tajikistan is one of four pilot countries under the IDA-18 Exceptional Risk Mitigation Window and thus potentially eligible for increased financing and to this end a Risk and Resilience Assessment (RRA) is also under preparation. In the circumstances, it is deemed more appropriate and client responsive to defer consideration of possible changes to the Bank Group’s program until after completion of the SCD and RRA later this year and subsequent CPF consultations with the government during FY18. 1 II. MAIN CHANGES IN COUNTRY CONTEXT Recent Economic Developments 5. As external conditions deteriorated, GDP growth slowed slightly, from 6.7 percent in 2014 to 6 percent in 2015, then picked up again to an estimated 6.9 percent in 2016. The latter reflected large amounts of externally-financed capital investment in construction and industry, offsetting the poor performance of services. 6. In 2015-16, lower remittances depressed household consumption and decreased imports created fiscal pressures. Owing to the recession in Russia, the depreciation of the ruble, and tighter immigration controls, remittances dropped by a third in US dollar terms in 2015 and by an additional 15.5 percent in 2016 (as of end-September), significantly dampening household consumption and consumption- related imports. Lower than expected revenues, a surge in externally-financed capital investment, and rising debt-service widened the fiscal deficit to 4.7 percent of GDP by end-2016, up from 2.1 percent in 2015.1 7. Currency depreciation mitigated pressures on the economy and external accounts. During 2015-16, the somoni depreciated by about one-third against the US dollar. However, inflation remained modest, owing to sluggish household consumption, the favorable global prices of imported commodities, and a relatively tight monetary policy—the latter reflecting a major shift in wholesale transactions from foreign exchange into local currency. The drop in remittances was outweighed by a sharp contraction in imports and exports, which reduced the current account deficit from 6 percent in 2015 to an estimated 3.5 percent in 2016 (as of end-September). 8. Looking ahead, GDP growth is projected to slow to 5.5 percent in 2017 as domestic vulnerabilities remain high. While the Russian economy is expected to recover, bolstering remittances, the contingent liabilities of state-owned-enterprises (SOEs), a fragile financial sector, and limited fiscal space are together expected to slow the pace of investment and constrain growth. In the medium-term, growth is expected to accelerate as the external environment continues to improve, large-scale investment continues, and remittances recover to a higher level, albeit below recent historical averages. 9. Private sector development remains constrained by both external and internal factors. Private investment and job creation have contracted, owing externally to lower demand for the country’s commodity exports and internally to lower remittances. At the same time, aggressive revenue mobilization by the government has created significant uncertainty about future tax and fee levels, as well as complaints about non-transparent tax collection. Indeed, several high-profile investors have left the country and many local businesses prefer to operate in the informal sector. 10. Risks to the outlook tilt to the downside. A weaker than expected recovery in Russia and Kazakhstan would depress remittances, while a steeper slowdown in Turkey and China could reduce exports and foreign direct investment. Risks from SOEs and the financial sector could threaten both fiscal revenues and overall economic growth. Despite the recent bailout of troubled banks and ongoing reforms, the high level of bad loans, weak capital positions, and governance issues continue to undermine financial sector performance. 11. Against this background, the government’s main policy challenges are to maintain fiscal sustainability, protect pro-poor spending, and promote job creation. Key priorities include restoring financial stability and completing the fiscal adjustment, while protecting pro-poor spending and ensuring the efficient and timely implementation of the targeted social assistance program. Further progress on 1 Fiscal balance calculations are based on preliminary Ministry of Finance data. 2 structural reforms would improve the business climate, helping sustain economic growth, create jobs, and reduce poverty despite a difficult external environment. Trends in Poverty, Shared Prosperity and Gender 12. Tajikistan remains vulnerable to a wide range of shocks, any one of which could derail past gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. Continuing and potential shocks include: the economic downturn in Russia; electricity and heating shortages; natural disasters; regional security concerns; reliance on food imports; and external market variations. Tajikistan is also particularly vulnerable to food insecurity—the only such country in Central Asia. 13. Poverty has decreased, but not enough to promote shared prosperity among the bottom 40 percent nor to match changes in non-monetary poverty. Strong economic growth helped lower monetary poverty from 36 percent in 2012 to 31.3 percent in 2015, according to the Household Budget Survey (HBS). While remittance flows increased between May—October 2015 and again between November 2015—April 2016, the rural poor and bottom 40 per cent of households experienced declines of 3.2 per cent and 16 per cent respectively. According to the Listening to the Poor (L2P) survey, average per capita household income declined 24 percent between November 2015—March 2016, with lower spending on food and higher sales of household assets. However, average per capita incomes rose by 3.6 percent during May—October 2016 compared to the same period in 2015, driven by increased wage income (9.6 percent), agriculture and self-employment income (15.5 percent), and remittance income (17.7 percent). Poverty in Tajikistan remains a predominantly rural phenomenon, with strong seasonality due to variations in agricultural income, seasonal migration and remittances, winter electricity and food shortages, and religious holidays. Moreover, churning is significant, with poor people exiting poverty and non-poor entering poverty from one quarter to another. In the circumstances, further poverty reduction will be increasingly difficult and the risk of increased poverty rates is high. 14. Analysis of multi-dimensional poverty reveals that deprivation is higher for the bottom 40 percent compared to the top 60 percent. Education, sewerage, heating and nutrition are the main contributors to multidimensional poverty, the latter causing wasting (acute malnutrition) of 10 per cent and stunting (chronic malnutrition) of 26 per cent. According to the 2016 Global Hunger Index compiled by the International Food Policy Research Institute, Welthungerhilfe, and Concern Worldwide, Tajikistan remains the only country in Central Asia still experiencing ‘serious’ food insecurity. Moreover, less than 12 percent of its children are enrolled in early childhood development programs. Box 1: Tajikistan’s Women: Economic Participation and Political Empowerment Economic participation and political empowerment scores remain low, offsetting other positive indicators of equality. Women’s involvement in politics remained low in 2015, accounting for only 19 percent of parliamentarians. In 2014, women occupied 23.5 percent of central and local government positions, but only 17 percent of leadership positions at the central level. At local government level, however, 40 percent of jamoat chairpersons are women. The National Strategy for Enhancing the Role of Women supports family-and home- based businesses for a more equitable distribution of labor, increased female employment in agriculture, and retraining for unemployed women. Female owners of private enterprises increased in 2015. Though 20 percent of private sector employees are women, female managers are fewer than elsewhere in Europe and Central Asia. Women’s take up of micro-finance and bank loans is relatively low and their size is smaller than those of men. In 2015, women accounted for about one quarter of microfinance loans and one third of bank loans. High interest rates and low access to property or other collateral mean that women tend to borrow from family or friends or to rely on remittances. Women increasingly head dekhan farms (13 percent in 2014 and 16 percent in 2016), but their average size is smaller than those headed by men. 3 15. Despite significant improvements in education and health, Tajikistan has made only limited progress in closing the gender gap. In the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index, it ranked 102 out of 142 countries with a score of 0.665 in 2014, implying little progress from its score of 0.658 in 2007. On the other hand, educational attainment scores are relatively high. To address disparities in tertiary education, the authorities established preferential quotas for young women from remote area; and data for 2015 show that more girls are now taking the university entrance examination and that 41percent of university entrants were girls. Scores for health are also relatively high. Emerging Development Issues 16. The executive branch of government remains highly centralized and the authorities have recently tightened internal security. Reacting to actual and/or perceived domestic and external security threats, including from religious extremism, the government has recently taken measures to restrict media, political, and religious freedoms. These include: the banning of the Islamic Revival Party (IRP), constitutional changes that effectively extend the term of the current President and bar the creation of new opposition parties, and a law requiring non-governmental organizations to register all externally-sourced grants. 17. Meanwhile, the difficult external environment and weak governance contributed to increased liquidity pressure on Tajikistan’s banks. With domestic demand and consumption falling significantly in 2015-16, due mainly to lower remittances and the rapid depreciation of the somoni, several systemically important banks experienced liquidity shortages and became insolvent. By the 3rd quarter of 2016, non- performing loans surged to 55 percent, from 30 percent in 2015, and capital adequacy fell below the minimum supervisory threshold. At the end of 2016, the government bailed out four troubled banks by issuing bonds totaling USD 490 million, or about 7.1 percent of GDP. 18. The government is increasing efforts to diversify regional cooperation, access new markets, and attract investments from South Asia and the Persian Gulf. Its focus is on regional development initiatives in energy, transport and telecommunications-connectivity. In this connection, the CASA-1000 project launched in Dushanbe last May will not only facilitate seasonal energy exports but also promote economic and trade cooperation between South and Central Asia. Meanwhile, since Tajikistan has yet to realize the benefits of its accession to the WTO in 2012, work on post-accession reforms remains a high priority. 19. Within the ECA region, Tajikistan is most prone to weather-related and natural disasters. Extreme weather, including rising average temperatures, has caused droughts and floods of increasing severity in recent years, destroying infrastructure and other assets. In 2015, for example, floods and mudflows in Eastern Tajikistan caused damage estimated at USD 100 million. Meanwhile, climate-related risks are expected to increase in coming decades. In the circumstances, Tajikistan needs more investment and a long-term climate adaptation and mitigation strategy to protect infrastructure and community livelihoods. 4 III. SUMMARY OF PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION 20. The CPS program supports the government’s long-term NDS, 2016-30 and related MTDS, 2016-20. Bank Group financial and knowledge support are organized around three strategic pillars:  Strengthening the role of the private sector: creating the conditions for micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises to expand and create jobs;  Social inclusion: improving the delivery of basic social services while expanding access to higher education for poor youth and land rights for women; and  Promoting regional connectivity: expanding access to regional markets and global information and knowledge through infrastructure improvements, including telecommunications. Activities under each pillar are supported by three cross cutting themes—gender, governance, and climate change. Together, CPS pillars are intended to help create jobs, increase prospects for productive employment, and diversify economic opportunities. Program and Portfolio Delivery and Performance 21. The Bank’s portfolio currently comprises 12 operations totaling USD 212 million, of which USD 71 million has been disbursed. It also includes six small Recipient Executed projects (REs), totaling USD 9.3 million of which USD 5.5 million has been disbursed. In addition, Tajikistan participated in three IDA-financed regional projects: 2nd Central Asia Roads with a commitment of USD 45 million; Central Asia Hydromet Modernization with a commitment of USD 6 million; and Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for the Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB) with a national commitment of USD 5 million and a regional commitment of USD 4 million. 22. Tajikistan’s IDA17 financing envelope increased significantly and its lending terms changed. Originally, the indicative allocation was USD 255 million for 14 operations, including USD 195 million for 2015-17. Following a joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Assessment, which reduced the risk of debt distress from high to moderate and then to low, the terms of Tajikistan’s IDA-17 resource allocation were changed from 100 percent grant to 55/45 credit/grant and subsequently to 100 percent credit. The government subsequently decided not to borrow on the 100 percent credit terms for the Communal Service Development Fund project, which was dropped.2 23. These changes in IDA financing terms affected the pace of project pipeline preparation and delivery. For example, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) became more selective, allocating IDA financing to revenue-generating operations with quick and tangible economic returns, as well as priority sectors such as physical infrastructure. As for the portfolio, weak implementation and poor financial management and procurement capacity slowed disbursement, as did the country’s liquidity problems. The Bank addressed these problems proactively through quarterly portfolio review meetings. Going forward, Bank Group support for capacity development and improved procurement and financial management are expected to improve portfolio performance in the medium- and longer-term. Meanwhile, additional financing proved to be effective in scaling up the impact of successful operations and reducing portfolio fragmentation. 24. IFC’s investment portfolio comprises 14 projects totaling USD 55.1 million, of which USD 25.3 million has been committed during the current CPS to date. IFC’s investments include engagements in key sectors such as banking, including microfinance, telecommunications, and tourism. 2  As of July 1, 2016, Tajikistan risk of debt distress changed accordingly IDA lending to a 55/45 credit/grant.  5 Furthermore, IFC’s extensive program of advisory activities, independently and jointly with the Bank, focuses on improving the business environment, promoting private sector development, strengthening the financial sector, supporting agribusiness, and enabling private sector involvement in infrastructure. MIGA does not currently have a portfolio in Tajikistan. MIGA is looking to support a manufacturing project in a first-ever MIGA guarantee in Tajikistan. 25. The IFC portfolio in Tajikistan has faced increased challenges due to the worsening investment climate resulting from macroeconomic instability, financial sector crisis, and aggressive tax collection practices. IFC has had to restructure one loan to an existing client, and the likelihood of continued financial stress remains high. Fiduciary Issues and Use of Country Systems. 26. Banking system distress is causing delays in program implementation. Liquidity shortfalls, and delays in processing transactions and issuing bank statements necessitated the transfer of several project implementation unit (PIU) designated accounts (DAs) to other banks. The Bank requested the MOF to develop an action plan to resolve these issues, including the transfer of PIU DAs to international banks outside Tajikistan or the relocation of DAs to the MOF’s Central Treasury. Partnerships and Leveraging 27. Coordination with development partners remains critical to achieving CPS objectives and supporting the government’s strategic planning process. The Bank currently chairs the Development Coordination Council (DCC). Until recently, it also chaired the DCC Energy working group and is now working with other development partners in key CPS program areas, including with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in energy, the European Union (EU) in water and irrigation, Japan in health and nutrition, the United Kingdom (DfID) in public finance management and investment climate, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in the energy and financial sectors. Responding to changes in the development institution landscape, the Bank is also exploring opportunities to engage with new partners, such as the Islamic Development Bank, the Eurasian Development Bank, as well as China and Russia, in key sectors such as education, energy, and transport. The Bank contributed significantly to the February 2015 Development Forum and worked closely with other partners and the government to inform preparation of the long-term NDS (2016-30), and the medium-term MTDS (2016-20). 28. The WBG has also reinforced its internal institutional collaboration. Strong in-country IDA- IFC collaboration led to a rising number of collaborative knowledge services and joint operations, particularly in agriculture, transport, finance and ICT. Progress towards achieving CPS Outcomes 29. CPS outcomes are broadly on track, although achievement of some important structural reforms is at risk, as is portfolio implementation. The former is due partly to the poor macroeconomic framework and partly to weak government commitment. The latter is due mainly to the banking system crisis, which caused delays in implementation of several projects. Nevertheless, progress towards most outcomes is on track, summarized below under each pillar. 6 Pillar 1: Strengthening the role of the private sector 30. Preparation of a new development policy operation (DPO), initiated in early 2015, was on hold due to the unsatisfactory macroeconomic framework and the government’s currently weak commitment to key reforms. Prior actions relating to state-owned enterprise (SOE) management, targeted social assistance, tax policy and administration, inspections and insurance were completed, as were two critical macroeconomic policy measures—exchange rate unification and a revised 2016 budget—albeit with some delays. However, given increasing macroeconomic risks, the government’s decision to recapitalize banks without amending the bank resolution framework approved by parliament, and the lack of an IMF program, the DPO has been postponed to FY18. 31. Meanwhile, progress elsewhere under this pillar includes reductions in the costs of doing business and increased access to finance. Regarding the former, it now takes less time to register a business; the use of tax e-filing is increasing; an online permit application system has been established; and Tajikistan ratified the Apostille Convention. Improvements have also been made in customs administration and corporate governance, including its legal framework, and technical assistance is being provided to the central bank to help implement financial sector assessment program recommendations including those related to financial stability, bank resolution and non-performing loans. Due to its delayed implementation, the impact of the Agriculture Commercialization project on market surplus cannot yet be determined, but value chain training is underway and increases in market surplus are expected in the next growing season. 32. IFC and the Bank have been working together to improve access to markets, by supporting further the development of agribusiness and by improving access to energy. In this connection, IFC is helping the Ministry of Agriculture identify private investors to build and operate cold storage facilities in order to reduce output losses. In addition, IFC is supporting improved access to food markets by promoting the uptake of environmental, social and food safety practices. In early 2000s, IFC catalyzed the development of Pamir Energy, the first public-private partnership in the energy sector, which significantly improved access to electricity in remote parts of the country (Gorno-Badakhshan). Lessons learnt are applicable to potential further private investments in the sector. WB and IFC are also helping the government contract the private sector to build and operate the CASA 1000 cross-border transmission line. Finally, IFC and the Bank are working together to improve the regulatory framework for private investment in renewable energy. 33. As one of the largest foreign investors in Tajikistan, IFC has provided significant support to the financial sector. Its risk management products have been instrumental in addressing foreign exchange issues and enabled other international financial institutions to enter the market. Its advisory services have enabled several microfinance institutions to become commercial banks by strengthening their internal structures and risk management, introducing new products, and improving lending practices. IFC has also supported both regulatory and retail-level efforts to improve consumer protection. 34. Although financial and private sector reforms are crucial for Tajikistan to move towards a new growth model, progress has been limited, especially regarding tax policy and administration and financial sector restructuring. For example, state budget revenue estimates are based on overambitious tax collection targets, which together with creative tax calculations lead to undue pressure on private enterprises. Implementation of the ongoing Tax Administration reform project, whose main purpose is to inform and advance policy dialogue, will hopefully lead to more realistic revenue projections and a compliance-based tax administration policy. As for the financial sector, risks include poor governance, the high level of non-performing loans, uneven liquidity, and unhedged foreign exchange positions, especially in systemically important banks. 7 Pillar 2: Social inclusion 35. Progress under this pillar, which includes better quality health care, increased access to water and sanitation, and improved targeting of social assistance, is mixed and it is unclear whether benefits are reaching the bottom 40 percent population, who continue experiencing difficulties in accessing public education, health, and water and sanitation services. While access to water supply and sanitation under the Municipal Infrastructure Development and Dushanbe Water Supply projects has increased to more than 750,000 people in urban areas, rural populations remain largely unserved. It is also too early to tell whether education interventions have improved the quality of secondary education or increased the poor’s access to higher education, although the data from the Ministry of Education suggests that more students from poor, rural areas, including girls, are entering university. Meanwhile, the Health System Improvement Project is supporting quality improvements through health personnel training in family medicine and performance based financing, though construction of health facilities is not keeping pace; performance-based health financing has been rolled out to 10 districts, but requires further refinement; and the roll out of per capita health financing agreed in 2015 has been delayed. While targeted Social Assistance reached 15 new districts in 2016 and is expected to be extended nationally by 2018, there are concerns that the government has not yet committed the required financial resources. Nutrition remains a special challenge—more than 25 percent of children under five are stunted. Pillar 3: Promoting Regional Connectivity 36. There was progress in transport and to a lesser extent in internet connectivity, though Bank Group activities did not contribute to the latter. In transport, implementation of the Central Asia Road Links project is underway and two additional projects designed to improve connectivity in the south of the country to the border with Afghanistan are under preparation. Regarding connectivity, internet coverage and use is progressing, though Bank activities have not yet started. Future improvements in connectivity and internet penetration are uncertain and contingent on government commitment to liberalize the sector and commit to the regional Digital CASA project, which would allow Tajikistan to become a transit country. IFC is a principal investor in the country’s largest mobile operator (Tcell) and is supporting efforts to expand and improve the quality of telecommunications services. Cross-cutting priorities 37. Women’s control over productive resources and their access to employment and health services has increased. Land use rights certificates, strengthening security of tenure for farmers and small businesses, have been issued to more than 350,000 beneficiaries, 43 percent of whom are women. Women also enjoyed increased access to income earning opportunities through the Second Public Employment for Sustainable Agriculture and Water Resources Management (PAMP II) public works program, with more than 150,000 person-days of work created. 38. Efforts to address the impact of climate change have focused on building resilience through efficient water systems and adoption of effective water and land management practices. Through the PAMP II and Environmental Land Management and Rural Livelihoods programs, canals have been cleaned and control gates installed to enhance the efficiency of irrigation systems. More than 27,420 ha of land managed by 27,986 households now benefit from improved agricultural, land and water management practices adapted to local agro-ecological conditions. 39. Oversight of aggregate fiscal risk, enhancing public procurement capacity and improving statistical capability underpinned efforts to improve governance. SOE governance and transparency are being addressed with support from the IMF, the EU and the Bank. A Fiscal Risk Management Strategy recently approved by the government seeks to minimize fiscal risks stemming from SOE operations and 8 establishes the foundation for improved accounting and financial reporting practices in SOEs. Further support to the MOF and SOE reform will be provided through the Bank’s Second Public Financial Management (PFM II) project, which will provide advisory services and training to improve the MOF’s regulatory function. Public procurement capacity building has supported an increase in the number of public entities applying improved procurement standards—36 compared to 23 in 2013. The Public Procurement Portal is functioning, although a procurement complaint handling system is not yet in place. Tajikistan’s Statistics Agency (TajStat) has made good progress in reporting poverty indicators based on the Household Budget Survey, with poverty data available based on a quarterly moving average since 2015. Preparatory work for a planned Labor Force Survey is still ongoing. 40. The context for citizen engagement in Tajikistan is challenging. Despite strong opposition, the government amended the NGO law to give it greater control over the financing of civil society organizations. Nevertheless, the Bank Group portfolio achieved full compliance with citizen engagement requirements in both beneficiary feedback and citizen-oriented design in FY15. As in other Central Asia countries, implementation is more challenging, with some mechanisms not yet operational as agreed at appraisal. On the other hand, other projects exemplify what is possible: Second Public Employment for Sustainable Agriculture and Water Resources Management, Central Asia Road Links, and Municipal Infrastructure Development. Efforts to establish goals, set minimum standards, and ensure continued compliance with corporate requirements are being put in place through the citizen engagement country road map tool and the consultative process for the next CPF (cf. Annex 6). IV. EMERGING LESSONS 41. Several lessons outlined below have emerged during implementation—some new, others long- standing—which, to the extent feasible, are being taken into account during the balance of the CPS. If confirmed during the Completion and Learning Review (CLR) process in FY18, they will be reflected more fully in the next CPF. 42. Lending pipelines should remain flexible to facilitate prompt adaptation to variable financing terms, changing government priorities and borrowing capacity, and the macro-fiscal environment. Specifically, harder IDA financing terms coincided with a systemic banking crisis, significantly lower remittances, and rising fiscal and liquidity pressures. Thus, despite an increase in Tajikistan’s allocation and the country’s improved credit rating, the government adopted a more selective borrowing strategy, earmarking IDA loans mainly for revenue-earning infrastructure projects at the expense of social sectors and ‘soft’ capacity building and technical assistance activities. This left important human and social development priorities underfunded, requiring adjustments to the FY17-18 pipeline. 43. The government is now less willing to use IDA financing for technical assistance activities. Thus, increased grant/trust fund resources are needed to finance capacity building and institutional development. 44. Tajikistan’s continued poor governance and weak public administration impede project implementation, as well as overall economic and social development. Governance challenges in public utilities, capacity constraints in the MOF and State Investment Committee, and weak inter-agency coordination have constrained implementation of projects with multiple clients, such as the Private Sector Competitiveness project. In this context, all investment projects should be subject to in-depth governance analysis by use of governance checklist. 9 45. Tajikistan’s weak investment climate and the paucity of bankable projects hindered IFC’s plans to expand its portfolio. While the CPS envisaged IFC investments averaging USD 10-20 million annually in growth enhancing sectors such as agribusiness, energy, and mining, activities to date have been limited to advisory and investment services in the financial sector, where IFC initiated about USD 25 million of new investments during the PLR period. 46. Development policy operations (DPOs) should be based on firm agreements with the government and incorporate sufficient flexibility to accommodate emerging priorities. DPO preparation and timely delivery has proven challenging, due to weak political will, inadequate inter- ministerial coordination, an inconsistent macroeconomic framework, poor quality data, and limited analytical capacity both within the government and among the fragmented network of private think tanks. These challenges constrained the government’s to ability to achieve ‘stretch’ reforms in the energy and financial sectors and, thus, resulted in the delay of the DPO series. 47. Tajikistan remains a low capacity, high-risk implementation environment, which requires simple project designs, extensive capacity building, and significant implementation support, including to PIUs regarding Bank Group policies and procedures. The country team is addressing these challenges by ensuring that PIUs are staffed adequately, arranging frequent implementation-support missions, and scheduling regular portfolio review meetings focusing on slow-disbursing and problem projects. It is also organizing regular workshops for fiduciary, financial management, and procurement staff designed to explain Bank Group polices in these areas. 48. Data quality remains poor, constraining the Bank Group’s ability to inform its advisory services and analytics and investment project results matrices, both baselines and targets. The Bank is supporting capacity building in the statistical agencies to improve the quality of poverty and other data. V. ADJUSTMENTS TO COUNTRY PROGRAM 49. Notwithstanding the changed external environment and country context that have affected program implementation, the CPS’s overall objectives remain relevant, albeit probably more challenging, with pillars and a results framework aligned to the country’s strategic priorities. The transition to a new more sustainable growth model will be a gradual long-term process; and, though some adjustments to the FY17-18 lending program are planned (cf. para. 51 below), the CPS’s principal focus on private sector development, social inclusion, and regional connectivity—as well as its governance, gender, and climate cross-cutting themes—will continue unchanged. In this connection, IFC, consistent with its 3.0 strategy, which aims to create markets particularly in IDA environments where investment opportunities are few, will explore opportunities to leverage the new IDA18 IFC-MIGA Private Sector Window (PSW) and the associated IFC’s Creating Markets Advisory Window (CMAW). MIGA will seek to utilize the MIGA Guarantee Facility of the IDA 18 IFC-MIGA PSW to support cross-border investments in Tajikistan in line with the MIGA Strategy and Business Outlook FY18-20. 50. Furthermore, IFC and the World Bank are expected to work closer together to ensure the initialization and implementation of needed reforms, and particularly in the infrastructure (i.e. energy and ICT) and financial sectors, to create space for private investments. 51. In the circumstances, with barely 18 months remaining, no extension of the CPS is proposed. Work has already started on a first Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD), which will provide a robust analytical foundation for Tajikistan’s next Country Partnership Framework (CPF). It will also help ensure that the next CPF program remains grounded in the key constraints to sustainable growth, inclusiveness, 10 and connectivity. In this context, Tajikistan is considered a country ‘at risk’ of fragility, given its post- conflict status, vulnerability to natural disasters, high rate of churn into and out of poverty, and exposure to regional security risks, and may thus be eligible for increased financing under the IDA18 FCV Risk Mitigation Regime. 52. Commencing FY18, the IDA credit/grant ratio for Tajikistan will be 50/50 as long as its risk of debt distress remains moderate. Taking into account this latest change in IDA financing terms and the readiness of particular operations, several adjustments to planned FY17-18 lending have been agreed with the government and are summarized in Annex 5 (Planned IDA Lending and Actual Deliveries, FY15- 17). The main changes are: (a) the re-scheduling of the series of three DPOs totaling USD 60 million, originally planned for FY16-18, to FY18-20, with DPOs-2 and 3 slipping to the next CPF—for the reasons already noted above; (b) the re-configuration, re-scheduling, and upgrading of the erstwhile Winter Energy/Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation project3, originally programmed for USD 30 million in FY16 to USD 230 million in FY17, including using resources from the Scale-Up Facility (SUF) under IDA17. Nurek is a Soviet-era mega-project accounting for about 70 percent of Tajikistan’s electricity supply, whose extensive rehabilitation, advocated by and prepared with help from the Bank, is a long-standing, urgent national strategic priority. This explains the timing and large size of the project and its proposed financing, the largest in Tajikistan to date, which also largely accounts for the increase in planned FY15-18 lending from the USD 255 million foreseen in FY14 to the USD 485 million now envisaged; and (c) a tentative strengthened pipeline for FY18, the first year of IDA18. In addition, the proposed Strengthening Critical Infrastructure against Natural Hazard project aims at improving Government’s capacity in preventing and managing natural hazard risks which cause recurrent damage to the infrastructure, livelihoods, and the economy at large. The above projects are based on the assumption of Tajikistan’s increased country allocation under IDA18 including potentially through the FCV Risk Mitigation Regime. Based on the RRA and its accompanying implementation note, these interventions will be designed and adjusted as necessary to support the country in addressing the fragility risks its faces, and lay the ground for further Bank support under IDA18 in the next CPF. 53. Overall, the results matrix remains valid, though revisions to a number of indicators and milestones have been made. New indicators have been added under the private sector development pillar to measure the quality of tax system performance and expanded access to financial services. A number of milestones have been revised to ensure consistency with projects’ results; some of milestones have been dropped due to lack of direct link with World Bank financed projects; and most of milestones have been reformulated to provide more clarity while keeping their original concept. One milestone has been added under the cross-cutting pillar to monitor improved access to data on poverty and employment. 54. Proposed ASAs are critical to inform new operations in both the current CPS and next CPF, especially given the prospective doubling of resources available under IDA-18. Bank Group support will include analysis to help identify new drivers for growth, resolve troubled banks and restore financial sector stability, jobs, an aviation sector diagnostic, and a poverty diagnostic in water and sanitation. 3 Restoration of the generation capacity of Nurek HPP is essential for meeting the domestic demand and improving the financial viability of the Tajik energy company. Specifically, rehabilitation of Nurek HPP will reduce the amount of un-met electricity demand in winter, which will reduce the amount of foregone economic revenue due to power outages, thus, contributing to private sector led economic growth. The project supports the World Bank’s twin goals through: (i) precluding a decrease in generation of low-cost electricity from Nurek HPP, which would need to be replaced by significantly more expensive thermal generation; and (ii) boosting shared prosperity by improving power supply reliability to residential consumers, as well as commercial enterprises in Tajikistan. The project contributes to the CPS for FY2015-18 key strategic objectives and, in particular, the project supports Pillar 1 of the CPS, "Strengthening the role of the private sector."   11 VI. RISKS TO PROGRAM 55. The main risks to the program —macroeconomic, political and governance remain high and essentially unchanged for final 18 months CPS. Similarly, risk to the program related to the sector strategies and policies remain substantial. Adverse external conditions in 2015-16, compounded by an unsatisfactory macro-economic framework and delayed or partially stalled structural reforms, negatively affected the transition to a new growth model based on increased private sector investment. Thus, the programmatic series of three DPOs commencing FY16 did not materialize and, as planned in this eventuality, CPS support for the private sector focused on foundational reforms and for poverty reduction and shared prosperity on investment in basic human needs, social services, and infrastructure. This alternative approach will continue for the remainder of the CPS, backed by continued support for modernization of Tajikistan’s public administration and financial management systems. 56. Institutional capacity and fiduciary risks remain substantial. Continuous capacity building in procurement, financial management, monitoring and evaluation, as well as safeguards will remain a priority area and an essential part of the WBG program in Tajikistan for the remainder of the CPS. The WBG will continue providing enhanced implementation support to the client mobilizing global knowledge and technical expertise to the ongoing investment operations. 57. By contrast, security and conflict risk to the program and more broadly to the country’s development posed by its social fragility may be increasing. For example, lower remittances, a de facto social safety net, have increased economic vulnerability, and continuing conflict and insecurity in Afghanistan and the Middle East have raised the risks of radicalization among unemployed youth and returning migrants. The Bank is completing a rapid fragility assessment and is in dialogue with development partners, including UN agencies, to coordinate analysis and response. Further, as one of four pilot countries under the IDA-18 FCV Risk Mitigation Regime, Tajikistan is eligible to receive additional IDA resources on top of its regular country allocation to directly target symptoms of fragility. 58. Finally, following recent developments in Uzbekistan, prospects for improved regional dialogue and cooperation may be improving. In this connection, the Bank is contributing to dialogue to inform and promote regional cooperation, especially in water and energy management, and supporting regional initiatives in data and knowledge sharing and climate change mitigation. It is also promoting Central Asia-South Asia regional energy trade through the CASA-1000 transmission line project, which will generate significant economic benefits for Tajikistan and serve as a platform for intensified longer- term regional cooperation. 12 Table 1: Summary of Risks to the Bank Group Program Risk categories Rating 1. Political and governance H 2. Macroeconomic H 3. Sector strategies and policies S 4. Technical design of project or program M 5. Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability S 6. Fiduciary S 7. Environment and social M 8. Stakeholders M 9. Other (security/conflict) S Overall High Ratings are high (H), substantial (S), moderate (M), low (L). The risk assessment applies to the remainder of the CPS period and is based on the Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool (SORT). 13 VII. ANNEXES Annex 1. Tajikistan FY15-18 Country Partnership Strategy Updated Results Matrix Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Main instruments Pillar 1: Strengthening the role of the private sector  Business registration, permitting and  Average cost to comply with business regulation WB Ongoing: inspections are simplified decreased: Private Sector Competitiveness project (FY 12-18) Baseline (2012): US$470 Tax Administration (FY 12-19)  Modernization of tax administration Target (2018): US$250 Tax system analysis (DPO1) including e-filing, risk based audit, appeals reforms are implemented WB Planned:  Number of entrepreneurs using electronic services to comply with business regulations, particularly DPO 1-3 (FY16-18)  Reforms to create more efficient and tax reporting and permit applications: Financial sector development (FY18) business friendly tax system Baseline (2013): 2100 IFC Investment Ongoing (Financial Sector): Target (2018): 6000 Outstanding investment portfolio in the financial sector and services comprised of 11 projects with 5 clients  Primary performance index (Taxpayers IFC Ongoing Advisory: satisfaction survey, Tax Committee, RT): Tajikistan Business Regulation and Investment Policy Project Baseline (2017): 47 percent (FY13-15) Target (2018): 70 percent Financial Markets Infrastructure (FY09-16) Central Asia Corporate Governance Project Phase II (FY13-  Legal regulatory framework for bank  Increased access to finance for MSME (measured 16) supervision is developed and in the number of loans provided), of which 80% Transformation for MFIs in Tajikistan (FY09-17) implemented are well performing: Electronic & Digital Financial Services in Azerbaijan and Baseline (2012): 54,000 Central Asia project (EDFS in ACA)  Supervisory capacity of the National Target (2018): 200,000 Bank of Tajikistan is strengthened Central Asia Agri-finance Project (FY14-19) ASA and TA:  Deposit insurance scheme is developed  New loans using collateral agency: WB Financial Sector Policy Dialogue (FY17) Baseline:0 Strengthening Bank regulation (FY14-15) 14 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Main instruments Target: 4,878 Legal Framework for Secured Transactions (FY15) Insurance Market Development (FY15)  New loans using Credit Bureau: Tajikistan #D001 Financial Stability (FY 19) Baseline:0 MSMEs Strengthening the Financial Sector (FY 18) Target: 128,000 MSMEs Tajikistan PEFA 2016 Supporting Tajikistan's PPP program (FY 17) Trust Funds: FIRST TA on supervision (FY12-16, FY17-19) Planned through Global Practices with IBRD: Mobile Banking (FY15-19) Trade and Competitiveness (FY18)  Access of farmers to finance is improved  Number of small farmers reporting increased WB Ongoing: marketed surplus of selected agricultural products Agriculture commercialization project (FY14)  Agriculture extension services are Baseline (2013): 0 available Land Registration & Cadaster (FY05-15) Target (2018): 4,000 PAMP II (FY13-18)  Farmers capacity building program is Ferghana Valley Water Resource Management Project (FY developed and delivered 06-14) (completed) Real Estate Registration Project (FY16) IFC Ongoing Investments: Tourism Promotion Services Tajikistan Ltd. (TPST) IFC Ongoing Advisory: Tajikistan Cold Storage (PPP) Central Asia Agri-finance Project (FY14-19) ECA Region Agribusiness Standards (FY14-16) IFC Investments Planned: Potential investments in agribusiness and food retail (FY17- 18) 15 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Main instruments ASA and TA: Rural Investment Climate Assessment, RICA (FY14) Agriculture Sector Update (FY14-15) KP Tajikistan Irrigation Strategy (FY 14-15) Joint study with IFC on sustainable farm advisory systems (FY16)  Study on energy efficient stoves in rural  Improve financial performance of Barki Tajik: WB Ongoing: areas is delivered and disseminated Baseline (2013): Cash collected from electricity DPO 1-3 (FY16-18) sales is about two times lower than short term cost  Revenue management program to recovery requirements Energy Loss Reduction (FY 05-15) (completed) finance winter energy investments is Target (2018): Cash collected from electricity sales CASA-1000 (FY14) developed and under implementation are equal or above short term cost recovery levels MDTF for Community Support Program (FY15) Nurek HPP rehabilitation (FY17)  Action plan for Barki Tajik financial viability developed through enhanced  Barki Tajik transparency and accountability: ASA: cooperation among development Baseline (2013): audit reports for 2011 and 2013 TA Review of Rogun HEP assessment process (FY11-15) partners and Tajik Government is issued with disclaimer of auditor’s opinion TA Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue (FY15) prepared and agreed. Target (2015-18): audit reports issued with qualified TJ Addressing Energy Deprivation (FY14) opinion Trust Funds: Swiss Energy Loss Reduction (FY 14) IFC Ongoing Advisory: Tajikistan Infrastructure Investment (FY09-16) IFC Advisory Planned: Potential PPP transaction advisory for hydropower projects IFC Investments Planned (Energy): Potential investments in hydropower Pillar 2: Social inclusion 16 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Main instruments  Institutionalization of university  Increased share of poor students (bottom 40 WB Ongoing: entrance examinations percent) in the overall higher education GPE4 (FY13-16) institutions’ enrollment (HBS):  Education quality assurance mechanisms Baseline (2007): 13 percent WB Planned: is developed and being implemented Target (2018): 17 percent DPO (FY18) Higher Education Project (FY16) ASA: Higher Education Sector Study (ASA) (FY15) Governance in Service Delivery 3 (FY16) Household Budget Survey (FY17-18) Trust Funds: READ Tajikistan - Phase two – RE (FY 14)  The Municipal Infrastructure  The number of beneficiaries provided with WB Ongoing: Development Plan is developed and improved water supply and sanitation service in Municipal Infrastructure Development Project (FY 06-15) approved urban settings: Dushanbe Water Supply II (FY 11-15) Baseline (2013): 0  Coverage to improved water supply in Trust Funds: Target (2018): 847,000 urban areas is extended to other cities Grant for Preparation of CSDF Project (FY 14) WB Planned: National Sanitation Project (FY18)  Capacity building training to establish  Share of total population covered by targeted WB Ongoing: targeted poverty benefits program is social benefits: Social Safety (FY 11-15) provided Baseline (2013): 23 percent WB Planned: Target (2018): 100 percent  Pilot targeted poverty benefits program Social Safety AF (FY18) is extended nationwide. DPO (FY18) ASA: Tajikistan Review of Social Safety Nets Reform (ASA) (FY15) 17 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Main instruments Pillar 3: Promoting regional connectivity  Improved road connectivity between  Satisfaction of road users (beneficiaries) with WB Ongoing: the northern Tajikistan and the the improvements along completed road Central Asia Road links (FY 15) southern Kyrgyzstan sections under the Regional Central Asia Road Links Program – Phase 2 ASA: Baseline (2015): 0 percent Central Asia ICT KP (FY14) Target (2018): 30 percent Central Asia Regional Rail Study (FY15) WB Planned:  Volume of freight through selected the CARS4 (FY18) Regional Central Asia Road Links Program- Road Sector Improvement Project (FY 18) Phase 2 international border crossing points. Tajikistan Turkmenistan Railways Project (FY18) Baseline (2015): 359,838 (‘000 tons) IFC Ongoing Investment: Target (2018): 410,000 (‘000 tons) TCELL ASA: Multi-modal Transport Study (FY16) Aviation ASA (FY17, under CARS2) Cross-pillar priorities • Better opportunities for women to health • Increased gender empowerment through WB Ongoing: care services are provided increased access to employment opportunities, TJ Health Services Improvement (FY13-19) land use rights, mother and child health • Opportunities for tertiary education Baseline (2013): 86,000 PAMP II (FY13-17); Agriculture Commercialization (FY14) increase through establishment of NTC Of which: employment 22,200; land certificates WB Planned: 63,800. micronutrients and nutrition education for Zerafshan Irrigation Rehabilitation Project (FY18) • More employment opportunities and pregnant women - 0 AF for Agriculture Commercialization (FY18) crop production through improved Target (2018): 258,200 Trust Funds: irrigation Of which: employment 77,200; land certificates IDF-Health Care Policy Monitoring Project (FY 16) • Better access to land and other rural 136,000; Micronutrients and nutrition education Japanese Social Development TF (FY14-18) productive assets are provided. for pregnant women: 45,000 Environmental Land Management and Rural Livelihoods Project (FY13-17) 18 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Main instruments WB Ongoing: PAMP II (FY12-18) FVWRMP (FY05-14) ASA: Climate Change Issues Note (KP, FY 14) Micronutrient Status Survey for Tajikistan (FY 17) • Building resilience into water use and  The number of households supported to adopt WB Ongoing: management through enhanced water sustainable, climate resilient, water and land Environmental Land Management and Rural Livelihoods- efficiency in agriculture (through management practices GEF/PPRC (FY 13-18); PAMP II (FY12-18), CAMP4ASB rehabilitation investments, capacity and Baseline (2013): 0 (FY15) institutional strengthening) and domestic Target (2018): 21000 use (improved water supply and WB Planned Of which women (2018): 40% sanitation systems) Zeravshan Irrigation Rehabilitation project (ZIRP, FY17)  Number of users provided with water efficient ASA:  Improved irrigation and drainage systems for productive or domestic uses Agriculture Sector Update (KP)- FY 14-15 infrastructure Baseline (2013): 0 Central Asia Energy and Water Development Program Target (2018): 514,000 (CAEWDP, FY 11-15),  Support to the development of improved policies and institutions for water and land management;  An action plan developed for elimination  Oversight of aggregate fiscal risk from other WB Ongoing of QFDs public sector entities is strengthened Macro-monitoring Baseline (2012): PEFA Programmatic Public Expenditure Review 2012score for PI-9 C+ PFM APL II (FY15) Target (2018): PEFA 2018 WB Planned: score for PI-9 no less than B+ DPO (FY18) PER-2 (Joint Policy Notes with Government) PEFA (2018)  Increase in certified Public Procurement  Public Procurement Portal and complaint Ongoing and planned Trust Funds: professionals by 100 people by FY 16 handling system established and functioning 19 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Main instruments  Legal framework to create complaint Baseline (2013): No ECA PFM TF – Public Procurement Capacity Building handling system is enacted Target (2018): Yes TA to State Procurement Agency to improve Complaint Handling System  Increased capacity of entities to procure  All public bidding opportunities and contract IDF Grant to Improve Public Procurement Portal and e- per improved standards. award results are published Procurement Baseline (2013): 0 percent Target (2018): 100 percent  CSO engagement indicator is included  Number of WBG projects and IFC advisory ASA: into each project design services that are implemented and monitored in Governance Checklist for all projects collaboration with CSOs/NGOs is increased:  Citizen Engagement Roadmap for Baseline (2013): 37 percent Planned Trust Funds: Tajikistan program is developed and Target (2018): 100 percent GPSA used during project preparation and implementation.  Evidence-based tools and approaches in  Improved access to data on poverty and ASA: poverty and labor force measurement are employment: CAPPAS DFID (FY13-FY15) developed and mainstreamed in national Baseline (2013): No poverty and unemployment statistical system rates reported ECASTAT project (FY15-18) Target (2016): Poverty and unemployment rates Programmatic poverty studies (FY15)  Frequent regular poverty monitoring is reported in a quarterly moving average L2T survey (FY17-18) conducted (listening to Tajikistan survey, L2T) 20 Annex 2. Tajikistan: FY15-18 Country Partnership Strategy, Changes to original results matrix Milestones in the Original CPS Results Milestones in the Revised CPS Outcomes in the Original CPS Results Outcomes in the Revised CPS Results Matrix Results Matrix Matrix Matrix Pillar 1: Strengthening the role of the private sector 1. Reducing costs for businesses Revised to:  Average cost to comply with Unchanged business regulation decreased:  Business environment and regulatory  Business registration, permitting Baseline (2012): US$470 reforms to simplify business and inspections are simplified registration, permitting, and inspections Target (2018): US$250  Modernization of tax administration  Modernization of tax  Number of entrepreneurs using including e-filing, risk based audit, administration including e- electronic services to comply with Unchanged appeals reform, modernization of IT filing, risk based audit, appeals business regulations, particularly systems, and capacity strengthening for reforms are implemented tax reporting and permit officials applications.  Reforms to create more efficient Baseline (2013): 2100 and business friendly tax system Target (2018): 6000 New:  Primary performance index (Taxpayers satisfaction survey, Tax Committee, RT)6 Baseline (2016): 47 percent Target (2018): 70 percent Revised to: 2. Strengthening financial markets  Supervisory capacity of the  Increased access to finance for Revised end target:  Strengthen supervisory capacity of National Bank of Tajikistan is MSME (measured in the number of  Increased access to finance for MSME National Bank of Tajikistan strengthened loans provided), (measured in the number of loans  Providing TA to Agroinvestbank provided), of which 80% are well Revise to drop: Baseline (2012): 54,000 performing7 restructuring Target (2018): 85,000 Baseline (2012): 54,000 6 The new outcome indicator “Primary Performance Index” has been added to the revised CPF Results Matrix to measure beneficiaries’ satisfaction with improvement in the tax administration system. The WB financed on-going investment operations and IFC advisory services attribute to the achievement of this outcome. 7 The end target changed from 85,000 to 200,000 to be consistent with the project results. 21 Milestones in the Original CPS Results Milestones in the Revised CPS Outcomes in the Original CPS Results Outcomes in the Revised CPS Results Matrix Results Matrix Matrix Matrix  Providing TA to Agroinvestbank Target (2018): 200,000 restructuring4 New:8  New loans using collateral agency  Strengthened financial stability and Revised to: Baseline:0 deposit insurance scheme  Deposit insurance scheme is Target: 4,878 developed  Implementing legal regulatory  New loans using credit bureau  Legal regulatory framework for framework for bank supervision Baseline:0 bank supervision is developed and implemented Target: 128,000 MSMEs Revise to drop:5  New loans using collateral  New loans using collateral agency agency  New loans using credit bureau  New loans using credit bureau  New loans to small farmers  New loans to small farmers Improving sector competitiveness Revised to:9 Revised end target:10  Access of farmers to finance is  Number of small farmers reporting  Number of small farmers reporting  Sustainable agriculture extension improved increased marketed surplus of increased marketed surplus of selected services, access to finance, agriculture  Agriculture extension services selected agricultural products agricultural products policy reform and capacity building are available Baseline (2013): 0 Baseline (2013): 0  Farmers capacity building Target (2018): 6,500 Target (2018): 4,000 program is developed and delivered 4 The CPF original milestone “Providing TA to Agroinvestbank restructuring” has been dropped due to lack of government’s commitment to reform country’s financial sector. 5  These indicators are suggested to measure CPF outcomes in the financial sector rather than milestones  8  See footnote #4  9 The original milestone included three dimensions and was revised to individual milestones for easy monitoring 10 The end target was revised from 6,500 to 4,000 due to delay in the startup of the Agriculture Commercialization Project 22 Milestones in the Original CPS Results Milestones in the Revised CPS Outcomes in the Original CPS Results Outcomes in the Revised CPS Results Matrix Results Matrix Matrix Matrix  Study on energy efficient stoves in rural Revised to:  Increased access to energy for firms Dropped11 areas  Study on energy efficient stoves and businesses:  CASA-1000 project includes a revenue in rural areas is delivered and Baseline (2013): 4-6 hours for most of management program to finance winter disseminated the regions, except for Dushanbe and energy investments is under  Revenue management program other large cities implementation to finance winter energy Target (2018): at least 8-12 Hours for  Enhanced cooperation and investments is developed and any region collaboration between development under implementation Unchanged  Improve financial performance of partners with respect to assistance to  Action plan for Barki Tajik Barki Tajik: Barki Tajik and the Government on financial viability developed Baseline (2013): Cash collected from power sector issues through enhanced cooperation electricity sales is about two times among development partners lower than short term cost recovery and Tajik Government is requirements prepared and agreed. Target (2018): Cash collected from electricity sales are equal or above short term cost recovery levels  Barki Tajik transparency and Unchanged accountability: Baseline (2013): audit reports for 2011 and 2013 issued with disclaimer of auditor’s opinion Target (2015-8): audit reports issued with qualified opinion 11 The indicator has been dropped as there were no WB investment in the energy sector over the PLR period. Outcomes of the recently approved Nurek HPP Rehabilitation Project would contribute to the next CPF results. 23 Milestones in the Original CPS Results Milestones in the Revised CPS Outcomes in the Original CPS Results Outcomes in the Revised CPS Results Matrix Results Matrix Matrix Matrix Pillar 2: Social inclusion  Institutionalization of university  Increased share of poor students Unchanged: entrance examinations. (bottom 40 percent) in the overall  Improved education governance, quality Revised to: higher education institutions’ assurance mechanisms and financing  Education quality assurance enrollment. systems. mechanisms is developed and  Baseline (2007): 13 percent being implemented.  Target (2018): 17 percent  Increased use of ICT to improve access Revise to drop:12 and quality.  Increased use of ICT to improve access and quality.  Creation of Communal Services Revised to: The number of beneficiaries Unchanged: Development Fund to leverage resources  The Municipal Infrastructure provided with improved water and link investments in WSS to financial Development Plan is developed supply and sanitation service in and operational performance criteria and approved urban settings:  Coverage to improved water  Baseline (2013): 0 supply in urban areas is  Target (2018): 847000 extended to other cities  Establishment of targeted poverty benefit Revised to:13 Revised end target:14 by means of capacity building to extend  Capacity building training to Share of poorest quintile of Share of total population covered by the pilot to 25 districts by 2014 and establish targeted poverty population covered by targeted targeted social benefits: ultimately nationwide, by 2018. benefits program is provided social benefits: Baseline (2013): 23 percent  Pilot targeted poverty benefits Baseline (2013): 23 percent Target (2018): 100 percent program is extended Target (2018): 55 percent nationwide. 12 The envisaged ICT project has not materialized and the Higher Education Project has started in FY2017. Therefore, there will be no ICT related results to measure. 13  The original milestone included two dimensions and was revised to individual milestones for easy monitoring   14  The end target was revised from 55 percent to 100 percent due to be consistent with the Social Safety Net Strengthening Project.  24 Milestones in the Original CPS Results Milestones in the Revised CPS Outcomes in the Original CPS Results Outcomes in the Revised CPS Results Matrix Results Matrix Matrix Matrix Pillar 3: Promoting regional connectivity  Successful implementation of Central Revised to:  Satisfaction of road users Revised to: Asia Road Links –Tajikistan (CARS2)  Improved road connectivity (beneficiaries) with the  Satisfaction of road users Project improvements along completed (beneficiaries) with the between the northern road sections under CARS 2 improvements along completed road Tajikistan and the southern Kyrgyzstan. Baseline (2015): 0 percent sections under the Regional Central Target (2018): 30 percent Asia Road Links Program – Phase 2 Baseline (2015): 0 percent  Volume of freight through selected Target (2018): 30 percent CARS 2 international border Revised to: crossing points.  Volume of freight through selected Baseline (2015): 359,838 (‘000 tons) the Regional Central Asia Road Target (2018): 410,000 (‘000 tons) Links Program international border crossing points. Baseline (2015): 359,838 (‘000 tons) Target (2018): 410,000 (‘000 tons) Cross cutting pillars • Women access better quality healthcare Revised to: • Increased gender empowerment Unchanged services through results-based finance • Better opportunities for women through increased access to • Opportunities for tertiary education to health care services are employment opportunities, land use increase through establishment of NTC. provided rights, mother and child health • More employment opportunities and • More employment Baseline (2013): 86,000 crop production through improved opportunities and crop Of which: employment 22,200; land irrigation and rural water supply production through improved certificates 63,800. micronutrients infrastructure. irrigation. and nutrition education for pregnant • Providing better access to land and other • Better access to land and other women - 0 rural productive assets. rural productive assets are Target (2018): 258,200 • Collaboration among WB, UNICEF and provided. Of which: employment 77,200; land USAID on nutrition programs Revise to drop:15 certificates 136,000; Micronutrients 15 The milestone was dropped due to the lack of direct linkage between the milestone and CPF outcome. 25 Collaboration among WB, and nutrition education for pregnant UNICEF and USAID on nutrition women: 45,000 programs  By the mid-term review of the CPS, Revised to:  Oversight of aggregate fiscal risk Unchanged assessment work completed on possible  An action plan developed for from other public sector entities is interventions in economic rule of law and elimination of QFDs strengthened an action plan developed for elimination Baseline (2012): PEFA of QFDs 2012score for PI-9 C+ Target (2018): PEFA 2018 score for PI-9 no less than B+  Increase in certified Public Procurement  Increased capacity of entities to Revised to: professionals by 100 by FY 16 procure per improved standards.  Public Procurement Portal and  Ensure Publication of 80 percent bidding Revised to: Baseline (2013): Lack of Public complaint handling system established opportunities and contract award results  Legal framework to create Procurement Portal and complaint and functioning by FY 15 and 100 percent by FY 16 complaint handling system is handling system. enacted Baseline (2013): No  Enacting legal framework to create Target (2018): Increase qualified complaint handling system by FY 15 and  Increased capacity of entities to procuring entities by 50 percent Target (2018): Yes well-functioning system by FY 16 procure per improved Functioning Public Procurement standards. Portal and complaint handling  All public bidding opportunities and system. contract award results are published Baseline (2013): 0 percent Target (2018): 100 percent  Each project establishes an indicator and Revised to:  Use of Bank portfolio to increase Revised to: plan for CSO engagement, including  CSO engagement indicator is CSO capacity and demand for  Number of WBG projects and IFC baseline and target included into each project transparency and accountability, as advisory services that are implemented  CSOs/NGOs include also local design measured by percent of WBG projects and IFC advisory services and monitored in collaboration with community associations and regional Revised to drop:16 that are implemented and monitored CSOs/NGOs is increased: organizations.  CSOs/NGOs include also local in collaboration with CSOs/NGOs  Collaboration could include community associations and regional organizations. Baseline (2013): 37 percent Baseline (2013): 37 percent disseminating information, providing feedback during project identification Revised to: Target (2018): 100 percent Target (2018): 100 percent and preparation, involvement in project 16 The milestone was dropped as there is no direct link with the WB operations 26 implementation, involvement in  Citizen Engagement Roadmap monitoring and evaluation through for Tajikistan program is contracts, etc. developed and used during project preparation and implementation.  Improving statistical capacity and the Revise to drop:17  Improved quality, access, and use of Revised to: more systematic use of evidence-based  Improving statistical capacity data on poverty and employment by  Improved access to data on poverty and methods for policy-making and the more systematic use of improvements to and publication of employment:  Develop and mainstream a wider range evidence-based methods for HBS and LFS: of evidence-based tools and approaches policy-making Baseline (2013): No poverty rate Baseline (2013): No poverty and to strengthen M&E, especially in poverty Revised to: published since 2009 or LFS since unemployment rates reported and labor force measurement;  Evidence-based tools and 2007 Target (2016): Poverty and  Support to country national statistical approaches in poverty and labor Target (2016): Poverty and unemployment rates reported in a system force measurement are unemployment rates reported in a quarterly moving average quarterly moving average developed and mainstreamed in national statistical system Revise to drop:18  Support to country national statistical system New:19  Frequent regular poverty monitoring is conducted (listening to Tajikistan survey, L2T) 17  The milestone was dropped as there is no direct link with the WB operations   18 The milestone was dropped as it is repetitive of previous milestones 19 The new milestone was added to monitor achievement toward twin goals 27 Annex 3. Tajikistan: FY15-18 Country Partnership Strategy, Results Matrix (original) Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Progress WBG instruments Pillar 1: Strengthening the role of the private sector 1 1. Reducing costs for  Average cost to comply with On track: # of days required for business WB Ongoing Lending: businesses business regulation registration in Dushanbe reduced from 39 to 11 Private Sector Competitiveness project  Business environment and decreased: days; costs of inspection to business expected to (FY 12-18); Tax Administration (FY regulatory reforms to Baseline (2012): US$470 reduce by 30% because of new Inspection Law in 12-17) simplify business effect since July 1st. The survey to assess the costs Target (2018): US$250 WBG Planned Lending: registration, permitting, and to comply with business regulation will be conducted by the end of FY17 by IFC. DPO 1-3 (FY16-18) inspections Private sector competitiveness project  Modernization of tax (AF FY18); administration including e-  Number of entrepreneurs On track: # of entrepreneurs using tax e-filing and filing, risk based audit, using electronic services to online permit system is increasing. 34 percent of IFC Ongoing: appeals reform, comply with business all taxpayers filing electronically. Online permit Outstanding investment portfolio in the modernization of IT regulations, particularly tax application system was launched in June 2016. financial sector and services comprised systems, and capacity reporting and permit The analysis of the e-permit system will be of 11 projects with 8 clients strengthening for officials applications. assessed by the end FY17. At the same time, there IFC Ongoing Advisory: Baseline (2013): 2100 are complaints from the private sector over ineffective tax policy and administration leading to Tajikistan Business Regulation and Target (2018): 6000 Investment Policy Project (FY13-15) informality. For the period of FY 14-15, improved 2. Strengthening financial CG resulted in access to financing for 2 existing Financial Markets Infrastructure markets  Increased access to finance client companies, which reported a total of (FY09-16)  Strengthen supervisory for MSME(measured in the $2,462,806 in financing facilitated. The Program Central Asia Corporate Governance capacity of National Bank number of loans provided) partners achieved a total of $44,138 in sales Project Phase II (FY13-16) of Tajikistan Baseline (2012): 54,000 revenue due to CG related consultancy. Transformation for MFIs in Tajikistan  Providing TA to Target (2018): 85,000 (FY09-17) Agroinvestbank Target exceeded: The target was set low since Access Bank of Tajikistan (FY13-15) restructuring included originally only the new loans using Konimansur Mine PPP Transaction  New loans using collateral collateral agency. However, with the new credit Advisory (FY09-FY15, ongoing) bureau supported by F&M and IFC projects,  New loans to small farmers 308.000 individuals and MSMEs got access to ECA Region Resource Efficiency credit. Number of new loans provided expected to Advisory (FY10-FY16, ongoing) exceed the end FY18 target, including 480,000 AAA and TA: new loans using credit bureau system, 215,000 using electronic financial services and collateral 28 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Progress WBG instruments agency. There is however high risk that the new WB Financial Sector Policy Dialogue loans will become non-performing due to the (FY15) deteriorating economic environment, the problems Strengthening Bank regulation (FY14- in the banking system 15) Technical assistance to help NBT implement Legal Framework for Secured FSAP recommendations is on track, including - Transactions (FY15) Financial Stability, Supervision, Bank Resolution, Insurance Market Development (FY15) NPLs, Consumer Projection, while part of them have already been implemented. Credit Reporting IFC advisory planned: System mechanism is put in place and operational. Potential PPP transaction advisory The first private credit bureau issued more than (FY15-18) USD 1.5 million credit histories. ECA Region Agribusiness Standards IFC investment and advisory services in the (FY14-16) financial sector and during CY 2014 and CY 2015 Management contract for Barki Tajik facilitated around 270,000 new loans to MSMEs, (FY14-16) which exceeds IFC’s target of 258,000 new loans by 2018. Trust Funds: FIRST TA on supervision (FY12-16) TA to AIB restructuring (FY15-17) Planned through Global Practices with IBRD: Mobile Banking (FY15-19) Trade and Competitiveness (FY18) IFC investments: Potential investments in financial sector (loans, equity, trade finance lines, credit lines for SMEs, risk management products) and in real sector (FY15-18). 3. Improving sector  Number of small farmers Off track: With the delays of the Agriculture WBG Lending: competitiveness reporting increased marketed Commercialization Project, value chain trainings WB ongoing:  Sustainable agriculture surplus of selected have just started. The target number of small Agriculture commercialization project extension services, access agricultural products farmers reporting increase in productivity using (FY14) to finance, agriculture Baseline (2013): 0 the received microloans is at risk due to the deteriorating economic environment and the Land Registration & Cadaster (FY 05- policy reform and capacity Target (2018): 6,500 problems in the financial sector. 15); PAMP II (FY13-18); Ferghana building 29 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Progress WBG instruments CAAP. 7,124 farmers have been provided with Valley Water Resource Management access to finance. Project (FY 06-14) Planned: Land Immovable Property Registration AF (FY17) Improved Irrigation Efficiency (FY18); IFC Ongoing: Outstanding investment portfolio in agribusiness comprised of 4 projects with 3 clients IFC ongoing advisory: Central Asia Agri-finance Project (FY14-19); IFC investments planned: Potential investments in agribusiness and food retail (FY15-18) AAA and TA: Rural Investment Climate Assessment, RICA (FY14); Agriculture Sector Update (FY 14-15); Tajikistan Irrigation Strategy (KP) – FY 14-15 Joint study with IFC on sustainable farm advisory systems (FY16)  Study on heating options  Increased access to energy Off track: (No attribution to this indicator as no WBG lending: for Dushanbe and Khujand for firms and businesses: World Bank investment over the PLR period). The DPO 1-3 (FY16-18) is completed average hours of electricity supply are increasing Energy Loss Reduction (FY 05-14) thanks to new generation capacities put in place by Baseline (2013): 4-6 hours for the GoT. Winter energy deficit is expected to CASA (FY14); MDTF for Community most of the regions, except for further reduce after Nurek HPP rehabilitation Support Program (FY15) Dushanbe and other large IFC Ongoing: cities Pamir Energy (FY05) Target (2018): at least 8-12 Hours for any region IFC Ongoing Advisory: 30 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Progress WBG instruments Efficient Heating Stoves Pilot Program20 is being Tajikistan Infrastructure Investment developed for implementation in winter of 2016- (FY09-16);  CASA-1000 project 2017. Planned: includes a revenue CASA Revenue Management Program was Winter energy (FY16) management program to approved by the Government Decree on July 27, IFC investments planned: finance winter energy 2016. The Program as approved envisages Potential investments in hydropower investments is under utilization of CASA revenue flows to address implementation winter energy deficit including support to the AAA: communities through the measures to be Review of Rogun HEP assessment developed under the Community Support Program. process (TA) FY11- FY15; CASA Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) has been Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue set up to support the Government in designing and (TA) - FY15 launching the Community Support Program. TJ Addressing Energy Deprivation (FY  Enhanced cooperation and The Bank chaired DCC Energy WG is working 14); collaboration between well together resulting in agreement on priority IFC advisory planned: development partners with reforms in the energy sector as part of the Nurek respect to assistance to HPP rehabilitation and other donor funded Potential PPP transaction advisory for Barki Tajik and projects. hydropower projects Government on power Trust Funds: sector issues Swiss Energy Loss Reduction (FY 14) On track: Average collection rate for billed  Improve financial electricity increased from 63% in 2013 to 83% in performance of Barki Tajik: 2015 including collections from TALCO. Baseline (2013): Cash collected The Government increased the average tariff by from electricity sales is about 25% in 2012 and 15% in 2014. Tariffs are two times lower than short term expected to be increased by at least 15% by cost recovery requirements November 1, 2016. Target (2018): Cash collected from electricity sales are equal 20  The Pilot Program aims to test in practice efficient stove prototypes developed under the TA. The pilot stoves will be installed at and used by Tajik households and public buildings during the heating season 2016/2017. The results of the pilot will help fine-tune the design of stove prototypes to the needs and habits of the Tajik population and in this way prepare the ground for mass production of efficient and cleaner heating stoves in Tajikistan.  31 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Progress WBG instruments or above short term cost recovery levels  Barki Tajik transparency and accountability: Baseline (2013): audit reports On track: The auditors issued a qualified opinion for 2011 and 2013 issued with on 2014 and 2015 BT financial statements. The disclaimer of auditor’s opinion team is working to address the comments with the Target (2015-8): audit reports target is to have an unqualified opinion on the issued with qualified opinion 2016 financial statements by June 30, 2017. Pillar 2: Social inclusion  Institutionalization of  Increased share of poor On track. Due to establishment of the National WB Ongoing: university entrance students (bottom 40 percent) Testing Center (NTC) and introduction of the new GPE4 (FY13-16) examinations. in the overall higher University Entrance Exam (UEE) system in 2014 Planned:  Improved education education institutions’ (supported by READ, WB and OSI), there was an enrollment. impressive change in the 1st year students’ profile: DPO 1-3 (FY16-18) governance, quality assurance mechanisms and Baseline (2007): 13 percent increased entry of girls (by 10%) and students Higher Education Project (FY 16) financing systems. from rural areas (~by 40%). (2014 vs 2012-2013; Social Safety Net Strengthening AF Target (2018): 17 percent the NTC’s statistics). Several Bank supported  Increased use of ICT to (FY16) interventions have contributed to achieving the improve access and quality. target (READ; GPE-4 and HEP). IFC advisory planned: Because of UEE, there is an improvement in the Potential PPP transaction advisory for quality and governance of the admissions system social infrastructure projects for the higher education system. IFC investments planned: Potential investments in health and education, The indicator will be measured with the help of poverty team as part of HBS including with credit enhancement from IBRD. AAA: Higher Education Sector Study (ESW) - FY 15; Governance in Service Delivery 3 (FY15) Trust Funds: 32 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Progress WBG instruments READ Tajikistan - Phase two – RE (FY 14);  Creation of Communal  The number of beneficiaries Exceeded the target: Number of beneficiaries WB Ongoing: Services Development Fund provided with improved provided with improved WSS service in urban Municipal Infrastructure Development to leverage resources and water supply and sanitation settings (due to CPS activities during the FY15-18 Project (FY 06-15); Dushanbe Water link investments in WSS to service in urban settings: period) amounted to approximately 779,714, of Supply II (FY 11-15); Trust Funds: financial and operational Baseline (2013): 0 which: DWSP2 and DWSP2 AF= 750,000 Grant for Preparation of CSDF Project performance criteria beneficiaries; MIDP and its AF = 221,544 (Total of Target (2018): 847000 (FY 14) 221,544 people in urban areas provided with access to improved water source (under MIDP AF - 29,714 Planned: people with access to improved water source in two Communal Service Development Fund urban settlements of Farkhor and Vose). (CSDF) (FY15); CSDFP has been cancelled, and the expected National Sanitation Project (FY17) 50,000 beneficiaries subtracted from the total figure. By the end of the CPS period, 750,000 residents of Dushanbe city are expected to benefit from an improved water supply system (both direct and indirect beneficiaries)  Establishment of targeted  Share of poorest quintile of On track. (i) Data only available on total WB Lending Ongoing: poverty benefit by means of population covered by beneficiaries (roughly 15% of the population in the Social Safety (FY 11-15) capacity building to extend targeted social benefits: covered 25 districts). Targeted social assistance was Planned: the pilot to 25 districts by Baseline (2013): 23 percent introduced in 25 districts in 2015, is being expanded 2014 and ultimately to 15 additional districts in Q4-2016, now totaling Social Safety AF (FY16) Target (2018): 55 percent to 40 out of 67 districts in total (i.e. more than 50%), nationwide, by 2017. AAA: and is planned to cover the country by end 2017; (ii) Tajikistan Review of Social Safety draft Targeted Social Assistance law was approved Nets Reform (ESW), FY 14 by the Parliament on October 2nd 2016. Pillar 3: Promoting regional connectivity • Successful implementation Satisfaction of road users On track: Implementation status of the CARS 2 WB Planned: of Central Asia Road Links (beneficiaries) with the project is rated satisfactory. The contract for civil Central Asia road links (FY 15) – Tajikistan (CARS 2) improvements along works has been signed and the notice to IFC advisory TA: Project. completed road sections commence works was issued in June 2016. The under CARS 2 process of launching all other components is 33 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Progress WBG instruments Baseline (2015): 0 percent progressing and at its final stage of procurement Tajikistan Infrastructure Investment Target (2018): 30 percent of services and goods. (FY12-16) Volume of freight through AAA: Central Asia ICT KP (FY14); selected CARS 2 Central Asia Regional Rail Study international border crossing (FY15) points. WB Lending: Tajikistan Turkmenistan Baseline (2015): 359,838 Afghanistan railway project (FY 18) (‘000 tons) IFC investments planned: Target (2018): 410,000 (‘000 Potential investments in air navigation, tons) telecom and power transmission AAA: Multi-modal Transport Study (FY15) Cross-pillar priorities • Women access better • Increased gender On track: Number of land use rights certificates WB On-going: TJ Health Services quality healthcare services empowerment through that strengthen tenure security for families and Improvement (FY13-19); PAMP II through results-based increased access to small businesses in accordance with agreed (FY13-17); Agriculture finance employment opportunities, standards – as of December 31, 2015, 122,723 Commercialization (FY14) • Opportunities for tertiary land use rights, mother and certificates issued to 357,647 beneficiaries, of Planned: Land Immovable Property education increase through child health which 152,851 (43%) were women. There Registration AF (FY17); establishment of NTC. Baseline (2013): 86,000 however remain issues with the tradability of land Improved Irrigation Efficiency (FY18); certificates. • More employment Of which: employment Trust Funds: opportunities and crop 22,200; land certificates 4,835 women empowered through employment due to the temporary jobs to clean secondary IDF-Health Care Policy Monitoring production through 63,800. micronutrients and channels, (participation in the public works Project (FY 16); Japanese Social improved irrigation and nutrition education for program under PAMP II). The program created Development TF (FY14-18). Rural rural water supply pregnant women - 0 151,785 person-days of temporary employment Livelihoods Improvement Project infrastructure. Target (2018): 258,200 for women through manual rehabilitation of (FY13-17). • Providing better access to Of which: employment tertiary on-farm canals. Estimated number of land and other rural 77,200; land certificates female beneficiaries of public works by 2018 is productive assets. 136,000; Micronutrients and 5,990. • Collaboration among WB, nutrition education for The provision of micronutrients increased but UNICEF and USAID on pregnant women: 45,000 there are concerns due to high incidences of nutrition programs stunting because of poor sanitation condition 34 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Progress WBG instruments • Building resilience into • Number of users provided Target exceeded: WB Ongoing: water use and management with water efficient systems Number of water users with improved access to PAMP II (FY12-18); FVWRMP through enhanced water for productive or domestic irrigation under PAMP II (direct beneficiaries) (FY05-14) efficiency in agriculture uses is estimated to be 1,030,078 people (population WB Planned (through rehabilitation Baseline (2013): 0 of households on the territory of WUAs where investments, capacity and Communal Service Development Fund Target (2018): 514,000 rehabilitation investment activities were institutional strengthening) (CSDF) (FY15) completed or ongoing). The above-mentioned and domestic use (improved rehabilitation activities include: AAA: water supply and sanitation Climate Change Issues Note (KP, FY ‐ 5104 km. of irrigation canals manually systems). 14) cleaned ‐ 123.7 km of irrigation canals mechanically cleaned ‐ 470 km of drains mechanically cleaned ‐ 2,049 key hydraulic installations, structures and control gates rehabilitated ‐ In addition, PAMP II funds were channeled to create 11 new WUAs and strengthen 72 existing WUAs, which include 25,625 members.  Improved irrigation and  The number of households Target exceeded: WB Ongoing: drainage infrastructure; supported to adopt • With support from Environmental Land Environmental Land Management and  Support to the development sustainable, climate resilient, Management and Rural Livelihoods Project, this Rural Livelihoods-GEF/PPCR (FY 13- of improved policies and water and land management target has been surpassed. To date, 27,986 18); PAMP II (FY12-18) institutions for water and practices, of which 40 households have been supported, of which 49 WB Planned land management; percent women. percent are women. The project is also helping Improved Irrigation efficiency (FY18) increased crops in Baseline (2013): 0 communities adapt land and water management rehabilitated lands, helping practices to climate impacts. To date, 27,420 TJ participation in proposed Central Target (2018): 21000 communities adapt land and hectares are now covered by effective Asia Regional PPCR+ (Pilot Program water management agricultural, land and water management for Climate Resilience) practices to climate impacts practices suited to local agro-ecological AAA: conditions Agriculture Sector Update (KP)- FY • CAMP4ASB will assist households in adopting 14-15; climate resilient practices 35 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Progress WBG instruments Central Asia Energy and Water Development Program (CAEWDP, FY 11-15)  By the mid-term review of  Oversight of aggregate fiscal On track: Bank On-going the CPS, assessment work risk from other public sector • SOEs fiscal risk assessment is part of DPO1. Macro-monitoring; Programmatic completed on possible entities is strengthened Action plan to eliminate QFD in energy sector is Public Expenditure Review interventions in economic Baseline (2012): PEFA part of energy sector reform to support Nurek Bank Planned: DPO 1-3 (FY 16-18); rule of law and an action HPP rehabilitation. PEFA update will be 2012score for PI-9 C+ PFM APL II (FY15) plan developed for conducted in 2017 to inform end target elimination of QFDs Target (2018): PEFA 2018 Non-lending: • No dialogue on the economic rule of law due to score for PI-9 no less than PER-2 (Joint Policy Notes with the limited commitment B+ Government); PEFA (2018)  Increase in certified Public  Increased capacity of entities On track: On-going and future Trust Funds: Procurement professionals to procure per improved • The number of public entities procuring per ECA PFM TF – Public Procurement by 100 by FY 16 standards. improved standards increased from 23 in 2013 to Capacity Building  Ensure Publication of 80 Baseline (2013): Lack of 36 as of today, TA to State Procuring Agency to percent bidding Public Procurement Portal • Procurement portal is functioning and its improve Complaint Handling System opportunities and contract and complaint handling features are being improved and enhanced. IDF Grant to Improve Public award results by FY 15 and system. However, procurement complaints handling Procurement Portal and e-Procurement 100 percent by FY 16 Target (2018): system is yet to be established. This activity is  Enacting legal framework Increase qualified procuring included to the scope of PFM2 project. to create complaint entities by 50 percent • 470 trainees received certificates on training handling system by FY 15 Functioning Public completion. Identification of trainees who and well-functioning Procurement Portal and express interest to be certified as procurement system by FY 16 complaint handling system. specialists is in process. • 100% of Invitations to Bid and Contract Award Notifications for procurements conducted by the Public Procurement Agency are published. • Draft Public Procurement Law is planned for submission to the Government for approval in August 2016. 36 Milestones and Outputs CPS Outcomes Progress WBG instruments  Each project establishes an  Use of Bank portfolio to On track: AAA: indicator and plan for CSO increase CSO capacity and • Of 11 projects approved since FY14, ten have Implementation of the Governance engagement, including demand for transparency and established Citizen Engagement mechanisms, Checklist, all projects (FY15) baseline and target accountability, as measured which could provide channels for enhanced  CSOs/NGOs include also by percent of WBG projects voice. Seven projects included beneficiary and IFC advisory services Korean TF and GPSA local community feedback surveys, five included public associations and regional that are implemented and consultation and four included stronger forms of organizations. monitored in collaboration engagement such as participatory planning and with CSOs/NGOs decision-making.  Collaboration could include disseminating information, Baseline (2013): 37 percent • Capacity building for CSOs, including on providing feedback during Target (2018): 100 percent independent monitoring and evaluation, has been project identification and accompanied by capacity building for PIUs to preparation, involvement in promote more systematic engagement with project implementation, citizens and beneficiaries. involvement in monitoring and evaluation through contracts, etc.  Improving statistical  Improved quality, access, On track: CAPPAS DFID (FY13-FY15); capacity and the more and use of data on poverty • The government has been officially reporting ECASTAT project (FY15-18) systematic use of evidence- and employment by poverty indicators based on the country-owned Programmatic poverty studies (FY15) based methods for policy- improvements to and Household Budget Survey (HBS) since 2015. making publication of HBS and LFS: Poverty results are available as a quarterly  Develop and mainstream a Baseline (2013): moving average. wider range of evidence- No poverty rate published • TajStat has just completed its Labor Force based tools and approaches since 2009 or LFS since 2007 Survey and results should be available in a few to strengthen M&E, months’ time. TajStat also plans to introduce Target (2016): especially in poverty and new modules into its Household Budget Survey, labor force measurement; Poverty and unemployment including a module on labor force survey. rates reported in a quarterly  Support to country national moving average statistical system 37 Annex 4: ASA Delivered and Planned CPS Pillars 1 2 3 CCPs FY15 ESW Tajikistan Review of Safety Nets Reform v Higher Education Sector Study v TA Tajikistan #10134 Strengthening Bank Regulation v Tajikistan #10220 Legal Framework for Secured Transactions v Tajikistan #10133 Developing Insurance Market v Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue v Review of Rogun HEP assessment process v Governance Data Platform v FIRST TJ #10074 Payment Systematic Modernization v KP Agriculture Sector Update v v Population's access to electricity v v FY16 ESW Regional Railway Connectivity v Tajikistan Multimodal Transport v Tajikistan FSAP Update v TA TAJIKISTAN Supreme Audit Institution 3 v Emergency Support for Mudslides v DeMPA Tajikistan v Strengthening Capacity for Budgets v TJ Governance in Service Delivery v Regional ICT Initiatives v KP Tajikistan Irrigation Strategy v FY 17 ESW Tajikistan Jobs Diagnostic and Strategy v TA Winter Energy Program v PSIA/ Poverty Diagnostic of WASH sector Listening to Tajikistan survey v v LLI work on Youth Empowerment v 38 CPS Pillars 1 2 3 CCPs IE Tajikistan HRITF Impact Evaluation v Tajikistan Tax E-filing Impact Evaluation v PA and AA Financial Sector Policy Dialogue v Tajikistan Debt Reform Plan v FY 18 PA Strengthening the Financial Sector v AA Supporting Tajikistan's PPP program v Micronutrient Status Survey for Tajikistan v Tajikistan PEFA 2016 v 39 Annex 5: Planned IDA Lending and actual Deliveries for FY15-17 (USD million) CPS PLANS ACTUAL DELIVERED FY15 CPS IDA STATUS IDA Pillar 4 Public Finance Management-2/Public 10.0 Approved (06/01/2015) 10.0 Administration 2 Communal Services Development 30.0 Canceled Fund 3 Central Asia Road Links 15.0 (from Approved (02/25/2015) 15.0 National IDA) 2,3 Higher Education Project Approved (06/30/2015) (moved 15.0 from FY 16 to FY 15) 2 Additional Financing for DWSP II Approved (06/30/2015) 10.0 2,4 Additional Financing for Health Service Approved (06/22/2015) 10.0 Improvement Project 1,4 Additional Financing for PAMP II Approved (06/22/2015) 12.0 4 Additional Financing for ELMRLP Approved (06/30/2015)  0.9 Subtotal: 55.0 Subtotal: 72.9 FY16 1,3 Development Policy Operation -1 20.0 Moved to FY 18, increased to $30 mln. 2 Social Safety Net Strengthening - 5.0 Moved to FY18, reduced to $1.8 Additional Financing mln 1 Winter Energy (Nurek Hydropower 30.0 Moved to FY 17 Rehabilitation Project) 2,3 Higher Education Project 15.0 Moved to FY 15 1,4 Real Estate Registration Project Approved (04/04/2016) (moved 10.0 from FY 17 to FY 16) 4 CAMP4ASB Approved 5.0 Subtotal: 70.0 Subtotal: 15.0 FY17 1,3 Development Policy Operation-2 20.0 Will not be delivered under the CPS 1 Land Immovable Property 15.0 Approved in FY 16 Registration (renamed to Real Estate Registration Project) Irrigation Improved Efficiency 15.0 Dropped 40 2 National Sanitation 20.0 Moved to FY18 depending on WASH study being finalized 1 Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Q4 FY 17. Moved from FY 16 225.7 1,4 Zarafshon Irrigation Rehabilitation and River Q3 FY 17 16.1 (not Basin Management (TF) IDA) Subtotal: 70.0 Subtotal: 241.8 FY 18 1,3 Development Policy Operation-3 20.0 Not likely to be delivered under the CPS 1 Private Sector Competitiveness— 10.0 Dropped Additional Financing 3 Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Turkmenistan 30.0 Tajikistan Railways Project Not likely to be delivered under Railway the CPS 1 ACP Additional Financing Q1 FY 18 15.0 Development Policy Operation-1 FY18 30.0 1 Digital CASA (regional) Dropped Road Sector Investment Project FY18 30.0 2 Social Safety Net Strengthening -Additional Moved from FY 16 1.8 Financing 4 Strengthening Critical Infrastructure against Q1, FY18 50.0 Natural Hazard 2 Subtotal: 60.0 Subtotal: 126.8 Total FY15-18 255.0 Total FY15-18 456.5 41 Annex 6: Citizen Engagement in the Tajikistan Portfolio (FY15-16) In 2015, Tajikistan ranked 189th out of 204 countries on the WGI index for Voice and Accountability with a score of 7.4―the lowest of the six governance indicators. State--non-state relations are strained: Tajik society is divided and informal patronage networks influence the way citizens interact with the state. Public service delivery institutions are largely state owned, and citizens often have to pay ‘speed or access money’ for routine services. The overall enabling environment for citizen engagement is thus weak and deteriorating. Laws and policies mostly constrain rights to information, association and the development of civil society. For example, an amendment to the existing law on NGOs passed by parliament in July 2015 tightening their obligation to report on funding, including grants from foreign donors. Oversight of religious institutions and practices restrict citizen association and freedoms in the name of security. Finally, returning economic migrants from Russia exacerbate the problem of youth, ranging from unemployment to constraints on the voice and agency of this half of the population. The CPS, approved after the launch of WBG citizen engagement requirements in FY14, included a specific indicator requiring citizen engagement to be part of all Bank operations by FY18. Its governance pillar specified the WBG’s commitment to feedback mechanisms for service delivery, especially education, energy and the financial sector. In particular, it committed to working with civil society groups to help monitor implementation of public service delivery and provide a feedback loop to government. In this context, 11 projects have been approved since FY14, of which 8 have a service delivery focus. As of end-FY16, the portfolio had reached 100 percent compliance for these 8 projects and the current portfolio is 100 percent compliant for citizen-oriented design and 85% for beneficiary feedback, comparing favorably with the ECA average and showing a marked improvement since FY13 (Table 1). Table 2: IPF compliance with CE corporate requirements at appraisal % compliance % compliance Beneficiary feedback Citizen-oriented indicator design Pre-FY14 (4 projects still active) 25% 75% FY14 (2 projects) 0% 100% FY15 (8 projects *includes CARs) 100% 100% FY16 (1 project) 100% 100% Number of projects in portfolio currently 10 projects compliant/ 14 projects compliant/ compliant/not compliant with CE requirements. 5 not compliant. 1 not compliant Number of service delivery projects working with 2 projects 2 projects civil society groups to provide feedback. Of projects approved since FY14, 9, or 81 percent include Grievance Redress Mechanisms (GRMs) A review of their implementation, conducted as a part of an independent comprehensive Central Asia portfolio review, found that greater attention needs to be paid to their definition and operationalization. Of seven projects with GRMs included at appraisal, only 57 percent showed evidence of operationalizing them as a mechanism for beneficiary feedback and only one project GRM functions well―the others receive few if any complaints. The analysis flagged that the functionality and use of GRMs are hindered by inadequate earmarked budgets and insufficient 42 awareness building. Moreover, 43 percent of GRMs were established for a specific purpose, (e.g. resettlement complaints) and were thus were not open for citizens to provide feedback on any issue. Of 11 projects approved since FY14, 10 include citizen engagement (CE) mechanisms other than GRMs, which, if effectively implemented, could provide alternative channels for feedback: 8 include a beneficiary survey or similar, 5 incorporate some form of public consultation, and 4 have stronger forms of engagement such as participatory planning and decision-making. The results of these CE mechanisms are still emerging but, at least in design, there are models for potential replication in Tajikistan. Despite the difficult environment, CE quality at the design stage is similar to the Central Asia regional average. Most CE mechanisms allow citizens to provide feedback on any project issue and there is more than one channel for feedback. Frequency of feedback, as well as the opportunity for dialogue, is less well developed. Beneficiary indicators are generally well aligned with CE activities, and most are measured annually. Efforts to measure improvement or satisfaction with the CE process, however, remain limited, and information generated from feedback is not always actionable (Figure 1). Figure 1: Assessment CE quality in Tajikistan using objective criteria Quality of CE activities  Quality of BF indicators Tajikistan (FY14‐16) Tajikistan (FY14‐16) Unrestricted ECCU8 Corresponds ECCU8 feedback with activities TJ TJ Frequency of Level of Frequency of Measures feedback engagement measurement process Alternative Provides channels actionable information Since the approval of the CPS, CE has been supported through two primary avenues: (a) the development of CE in IPFs; and (b) capacity building of CSOs and project-level institutions.  Second Public Employment for Sustainable Agriculture and Water Resources Management (PAMP2): The project involves local community leaders and NGOs in public awareness and communication programs, field-level monitoring and reporting of public works, and oversight of sub-project selection and beneficiaries. Established as part of the project governance and anti- corruption strategy, the GRM handled by local NGOs is one of the best performing feedback mechanisms in Central Asia. It is well promoted, utilized by project beneficiaries for suggestions and complaints, and results are tracked.  The Central Asia Road Links Program (CARs) utilizes beneficiary feedback mechanisms to increase project outreach, and monitor performance. Efforts are made to measure project 43 awareness among beneficiaries, including the GRM, capture their perceptions of road quality during implementation and of road safety concerns related to traffic management and road user behavior; and to develop mobile phone applications to improve the efficiency of information on road safety and hazards. An experienced NGO underpinned these efforts, but the challenge is institutionalization within MOT.  The Tajikistan Municipal Infrastructure Development Project (MIDP). Although not included at appraisal, CE became key to the project achieving its PDO and by closure it was viewed as one of the key achievements by the client and local government. Three mechanisms were established during AF: (a) formation of Sanitation Zone Management Committees, with a legal mandate for communities to use, manage and maintain the sanitation constructed under the project; (b) a bottom-up GRM system using social mobilizers; (c) communications and public awareness raising to support behavior change and knowledge sharing; (d) a baseline and follow- up geo-referenced beneficiary household survey; and (e) staff were positioned to act as key interlocutors between citizens and state agencies.  Capacity-building of CSOs and PIUs, a Korean Trust Fund-financed activity, capacity- introduced participants to CE within the project cycle, including procurement, transparency and accountability mechanisms, as well as independent monitoring and evaluation, data analysis and reporting. This was supplemented by PIY capacity building to understand systematic engagement with citizens and beneficiaries as a key accelerator to achieve results in WBG-supported projects. Looking forward to the remainder of the CPS, Tajikistan will continue the current approach to CE, focusing on service delivery and engaging CSOs in monitoring. This is now documented in the form of a CE country roadmap, which articulates country objectives, specifies priority areas of focus, defines responsibilities, and sets out concrete steps for sector and project action. It also applies common Central Asia standards for reporting and monitoring. Table 3 summarizes the CE country roadmap illustrating key elements and targets proposed for the remainder of the CPS period. 44 Table 3: Citizen Engagement Country Roadmap Summary Table Stream of Action /Target Citizen Deepen and clarify consultation process for CPF and DPO Engagement in the CPF and By the end of the current CPS in FY18: DPL  CSOs are supported to engage meaningfully in the CPF process  Agree with government scope and content of CE for next CPF. Mandatory Improvements to quality and utilization of beneficiary feedback systems. Beneficiary Feedback in Beneficiary feedback. IPFs  TJ will continue to meet corporate target of 100 percent for citizen oriented-design and beneficiary feedback indicator in all projects with identifiable beneficiaries. It will also ensure that all projects are reporting on the BF indicator by the end of FY17.  In addition, TJ will ensure that quality of CE meets agreed minimum standards, similar to those established throughout Central Asia. These include: (i) BF instruments are conducted, at minimum, annually; (ii) feedback is sought and managed on all project issues, not narrowly defined areas (e.g. resettlement); (iii) a tracking mechanism is established to discuss and act on results; (iv) results are published and discussed in an open forum; (v) women’s feedback is disaggregated in all reporting; (vi) 40 percent of projects being approved will include indicators that measure effectiveness/satisfaction with the CE process. Remedial action plan for Grievance Redress Mechanisms.  A specific action plan to improve the functionality and use of GRMs will be implemented for all high and medium risk projects, setting standards for future projects. This includes: (i) a commitment to manage grievances on all project issues (not just resettlement-related issues); (ii) earmarking budgets in projects for comprehensive GRMs; (iii) ensuring capacity building (of staff) and awareness building (of citizens/ beneficiaries) is carried out to build understanding of GRM; (iv) reporting complaints data in AMs/ISRs, discussing results and remedial actions in annual portfolio reviews (if zero complaints received and the project is not generating feedback, remedial action). Enhancing CE CE in implementation of service delivery sectors set out in the CPS continues. In service particular, delivery IPFs In education, CE will be mainstreamed by engaging civil society organizations in the following project components: o Under the GPE-4 project 1) a CSO will carry out a Third Party Verification of goods and services provided by the project to kindergartens, ELCs and schools; 2) a CSO will carry out a survey on how improved educational environment affected key learning outcomes and indicators at the school level.   o Under the Higher Education Project, a local CSO will carry out an operational audit of grants received by universities. o Under READ-2, a local CSO will carry out a beneficiary survey of the new University Entrance Examination system rolled out in 2014. 45 Agriculture and irrigation: The PAMP-II project will mainstream CE in irrigation and agriculture by the following means: o Creating and strengthening Water User’s Associations, which are unique and effective mechanisms for participatory irrigation management in Tajikistan. WUAs are non- governmental membership-based organizations, which serve as agents between the final water users (farmers) and irrigation water provider (Agency for Irrigation and Land Reclamation). By 2019, the project will create 25 new WUAs and build capacity of additional 100, with the number of WUA members expected to reach 45,000. Currently, the project is engaged in every one of three WUAs registered in Tajikistan. o Continue engaging local CSOs in social mobilization activities and grievance redress mechanisms and engaging women beneficiaries as part of the public works program under PAMP-II. o An independent agency will conduct a household survey at the mid-point and end of the project to assess the project impact on food security and satisfaction with irrigation water delivery Energy: CE will be mainstreamed through two projects, namely:  Under the Winter Energy TA, collaboration will be established with local CSOs to raise awareness on energy efficient heating options, build local capacity, promote learning and collaboration, and support investment operations to scale up access to clean and efficient heating. The intention is to have series of workshops and learning activities, as well as communication campaigns to be implemented through local partners.  Under the Nurek Hydropower Project–Phase I, the capacity of Barki Tajik will be strengthened and consultant services will be supported to promote CE and gender- informed consultative processes during implementation. 46 ANNEX 7 IFC PROGRAM AND PORTFOLIO Table 4: IFC Committed and Outstanding Portfolio In Tajikistan (AS OF OCTOBER 31, 2016, $m, Own Account) Industry Project ID and Name Committed Outstanding Portfolio Portfolio Financial Markets 36576-Eskhata SWAP 1.0 0.0 36506-IMON - RM 3 0.1 0.1 35522-IMON - RM 2 0.5 0.5 34997-FMBT Loan 2 1.3 1.3 34955-IMON SL IV 4.3 4.3 34671-Eskhata SL&SD'14 12.7 12.7 34332-IMON SL III 2.2 2.2 33453-FINCA Tajikistan 0.8 0.8 31740-IMON SL 2 0.4 0.4 26758-Tajik Access-SEF 2.0 2.0 26439-GTFP Eskhata Bk 1.2 1.2 Subtotal 26.4 25.4 Manufacturing, 27047-TPST 4.3 4.3 Agriculture, 11254-Giavoni 0.4 0.4 Services Subtotal 4.7 4.7 Technology and 34211-TCell 24.0 24.0 Telecoms Subtotal 24.0 24.0 TAJIKISTAN TOTAL 55.1 54.1 Table 5: IFC New LTF Commitments FY15‐FY17YTD (AS OF OCTOBER 31, 2016, $m) Original Year Industry Project ID and Name Commitment Activity - IFC 2015 Financial 36655-TajikAccess Swap 0.18 Markets 36506-IMON - RM 3 0.6 35522-IMON - RM 2 0.5 35502-FINCA TJ SWAP 2 0.3 35287-FMBT RM 0.2 34997-FMBT Loan 2 2.5 34955-IMON SL IV 5 34671-Eskhata SL&SD'14 15 2016 Financial 36576-Eskhata SWAP Markets 1 TOTAL 25.3 47 Table 6: Active Advisory Services Projects (As of September 2016) Project ID Project Name Primary Implementation Implementation Business Start Date End Date Area 593647 CASA-1000 CAS-PPP 3/7/2013 12/31/2016 Tajikistan Business Regulation and 599048 Investment Policy Project TAC 2/1/2013 12/31/2017 599521 Central Asia Agri finance Project FAM 2/1/2014 12/31/2018 Central Asia Corporate Governance Project in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic_Phase 599627 II ESG-CG 5/1/2013 12/31/2017 600076 Tajikistan Cold Storage CAS-PPP 6/2/2014 9/30/2016 600560 TCell Mobile Money AS Project FIG 10/1/2014 6/30/2016 563790 Transformation for MFIs in Tajikistan FIG 7/1/2008 3/31/2018 569390 Tajikistan FM Infrastructure FAM 10/1/2009 12/31/2018 597647 Tajikistan Infrastructure Investment TAC 3/1/2013 12/31/2017 Electronic & Digital Financial Services 601347 project in Azerbaijan and Central Asia FAM 4/1/2016 3/31/2020 48