Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00005195 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT TF 016782 ON A SMALL GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF USD 0.56 MILLION TO THE Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CISSTAT Committee), FOR Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) June 29, 2020 Development Economics, Data Group Europe And Central Asia Region Vice President: Carmen Maria Reinhart Global Director: Aart C. Kraay Director: Haishan Fu Practice Manager: Craig Hammer Task Team Leader(s): Olga Vadimovna Shabalina ICR Main Contributor: Buyant Erdene Khaltarkhuu ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CIS The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) CISSTAT Interstate Statistical Committee of the CIS ECASTAT Program to Support Statistical Capacity in Eastern Europe and CIS Countries ECASTAT TF ECASTAT Trust Fund EU The European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations NSDS National Strategy for Development of Statistics NSO National Statistics Office SNA System of National Accounts TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ....................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 4 II. OUTCOME ...................................................................................................................... 9 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 14 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 15 V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................. 16 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 17 ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 26 ANNEX 3. RECIPIENT, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ...... 27 ANNEX 4. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ..................................................................... 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS P150037 region Country Financing Instrument Europe and Central Asia Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CISSTAT Committee), of Independent States (CISSTAT Committee), Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The development objective of the project is to create the framework for national and regional statistical systems which will allow the collection and use of statistical data that are needed in making decisions regarding the development of agriculture in the 21st century. This strategy is based on three pillars which are specific objectives of the Project: o integration of agriculture into the national statistical system in order to meet the users' demand for consistent and compatible data by territories and over time; o improvement of the sustainability of the agricultural statistical system through governance and statistical capacity building; o identifying a minimum set of core data which will be collected by the countries to meet both current and emerging information requirements. Page 1 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) FINANCING FINANCE_TBL Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) Donor Financing TF-16782 557,000 557,000 553,407 Total 557,000 557,000 553,407 Total Project Cost 557,000 557,000 553,407 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness Original Closing Actual Closing 26-Feb-2014 15-Apr-2014 31-Mar-2017 31-Dec-2019 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 28-Mar-2017 0.35 Additional Financing Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 19-Dec-2018 0.49 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Implementation Schedule KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 18-Dec-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.49 Page 2 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Kaushik Basu Carmen Maria Reinhart Country Director: Ana L. Revenga Aart C. Kraay Director: Haishan Fu Haishan Fu Practice Manager: Grant James Cameron Craig Hammer Task Team Leader(s): Olga Vadimovna Shabalina Olga Vadimovna Shabalina ICR Contributing Author: Buyant Erdene Khaltarkhuu Page 3 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES Context Regional Context 1. Agricultural development is having an essential role in poverty reduction. In 2013, the agricultural sector in the CIS countries represented 10 percent of the GDP on average and employed 27 percent of the economically active population. The average rate of female employment in the agricultural sector was close to 30 percent in the CIS countries, and in less developed countries like Tajikistan, the rate was even higher, around 70%. 2. Given the crucial implications of the agricultural sector on poverty, well-being, and gender equality, policymakers required a comprehensive set of statistics, which included information on food security, protection of the environment, and the ecological impacts of agriculture. Also, processes and procedures, followed in the collection, processing, storage, analysis, and dissemination of these statistics needed close alignment with international standards. The Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CISSTAT) 3. The CISSTAT participation in the Project is determined by its special role in improving the statistical service of the CIS countries. According to the Statute of CISSTAT its main objective is coordinating the activities of national statistical services, promoting the information exchange, analysis of socio-economic development of the states and elaborating common recommendations in the field of statistics. The principal activities of the CISSTAT include (i) promotion of state statistics reforming in the CIS countries in accordance with the socioeconomic transformations and international standards of accounting and statistics; (ii) coordination of statistical activities and development of recommendations on the common statistical methodology; and (iii) multilateral exchange of statistical information and development of common information and statistical space of CIS countries. 4. Since 1992 the CISSTAT takes a lead in developing of coordinated statistical methodology based on international rules and standards. It is responsible for interaction with CIS national statistical offices (NSOs) in organization of staff training, seminars and other activities related to reforming of state statistics and interstate exchange of statistical information and its publication; international statistical cooperation jointly with the CIS NSOs, including participation in the work of international statistical organizations and also representing them during the international events. Rational for Bank Support 5. The Bank has expertise on statistical capacity building and experience in implementing similar projects in many countries around the globe. These expertise and experience serve as major justifications for the Bank’s participation in the Project. The Bank’s involvement was facilitated by the Multi-Donor Trust Fund to Support Statistical Capacity Building in Eastern Europe and CIS Countries (ECASTAT) which was established in 2012 to support statistical capacity building, and to improve statistical capacity in the member countries. Its overall objectives are to address the capacity and financial constraints of the statistical systems of countries in Eastern Europe and the CIS region, and, thereby support development outcomes by strengthening the production of Page 4 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) reliable and relevant data on a timely basis for evidence-based decision making at all levels of their governments. ECASTAT is organized as a two-window programmatic Trust Fund, comprising of: (i) regional projects that focus on the development of methodologies, including in Russian, and on technical assistance and training in specific thematic areas; and (ii) country-specific projects that support the implementation of the National Strategies for Development of Statistics (NSDS). The ECASTAT regional approach provides an opportunity to overcome many barriers to investment related to scale, resources, and capacity constraints of smaller countries. Focusing on a regional grouping of countries facing a similar set of issues, regional programs aim at facilitating learning and replication of approaches to increase statistical capacity in the region. This Project was prepared and implemented as part of the ECASTAT regional program. 6. Although ECASTAT was established as a multi-donor trust fund, to date only the Russian Federation has pledged funding in an amount of USD 15 million. ECASTAT works closely with UNECE and the CIS Statistical Committee (CISSTAT) to ensure coordinated efforts to improve statistics in the region. Sectoral (statistics) Context 7. Main databases of agricultural and rural statistics in the CIS countries had been formed by using various types of statistical observations such as statistical reporting and surveys of legal entities conducted with different periodicity. To some extent the CIS NSOs have been also using administrative data collected through other ministries and agencies. 8. Several common problems were identified which provide justifications for the implementation of the Project. These problems were (i) lack of a common/unified methodology for producing agricultural statistics in accordance with international standards; (ii) lack of institutional coordination, which resulted in the lack of harmonized and integrated data sources; (iii) difficulties in accessing the existing databases and lack of metadata for users in many CIS countries; (iv) lack of adequate technical tools for data collection and processing for conducting sample surveys and censuses; (v) insufficient funding allocated for agricultural statistics; (vi) lack of capacity to analyze data, which resulted in a significant waste of resources as large amounts of raw data were not properly used; (vii) limited staff and capacity of the units responsible for collection, compilation, analysis, and dissemination of agricultural statistics. 9. As a result, the CIS countries needed to acquire a comprehensive set of national level statistics on agricultural sector and rural areas using modern data collection and compilation techniques, international concepts, definitions and classifications. Support of international development organizations. 10. Work on the “Global Strategy to Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics� started after the 2007 International Statistical Institute Conference on Agricultural Statistics. At the conference it was emphasized that there was a lack of direction regarding agricultural data requirements posed by the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and other emerging issues such as the use of food for biofuels, the environment, and food security. In addition, a general decline in the overall quality and availability of agricultural statistics was stressed. Page 5 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) 11. Based on the proceedings of this conference, CIS-Stat has prepared a questionnaire “Assessment of the Agricultural Statistics in the Country� and circulated it among the NSOs. The main purpose of this questionnaire was to assess the situation in agricultural and rural statistics in the CIS region and to determine development priorities. Following the questionnaire, a meeting of experts from the NSOs CIS was conducted on September 26- 27, 2012. During the meeting, these experts discussed the implementation of the “Global Strategy to Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics� in the region based on the draft Implementation Plan prepared by CIS-Stat. Representatives of the NSOs from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Ukraine confirmed that the implementation of the Global Strategy in the CIS region formed a basis for the coordinated development of the agricultural and rural statistics in all the CIS countries. The NSOs CIS also confirmed their participation in the action plan execution. CIS-Stat acts on the premise that the implementation of the “Global Strategy to Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics in the CIS Region� should help to create an optimal system of indicators for agricultural and rural statistics which meets modern methodological standards, and to harmonize statistics of the CIS countries with the global systems of agricultural and rural statistics. Links to National Strategies 12. During the project preparation stage, the CIS countries have adopted the Strategy of Economic Development till 2020 of the CIS Member States. Their Governments, CIS Executive Committee and other CIS institutions increasingly needed integrated and harmonized data by countries with a special emphasis on the agricultural sector and rural areas which were crucial for monitoring and reporting progress on the Strategy Implementation. Main Beneficiaries 13. The main beneficiaries of the project outcomes were the CIS NSOs, the government, the general public and international development partners. (a) National Statistical Organizations: the main beneficiary and stakeholder is the NSO who are responsible for collecting, producing and disseminating the official statistics in the countries. In addition, the relevant ministries and agencies in the government do benefit from the project. (b) Policy and decision makers: policy and decision-makers in the public and private sectors are part of the important stakeholders, supplier and users of the statistics. They often use reliable data and quality indicators to conduct analysis and planning, inform policy decisions and monitor implementation progress accordingly. Within the project, the activities aimed to improve the data on agricultural sector and rural areas so that all interested stakeholders have more relevant data to inform their decisions. (c) Civil society and the public: the activities under the Project also aimed to ensure that agricultural and rural statistics are clear and available for use by academic and research institutions, civil society and educational institutions, the Parliament and other oversight organizations, media organizations, and the general public. Although this impact is indirect in nature, it allows accountability and transparency in governing through better information and dissemination on the achievements and challenges. (d) Development partners: the coordination with the relevant development partners and agencies support the strengthening of the agricultural and rural statistics at the scale and provide better data for monitoring of the respective programs, and for carrying out international reporting on realization of programs. Page 6 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) Theory of Change 14. The theory of change for the Project could be drawn as the activities supported the CIS NSOs in building the national agriculture and rural statistics, subsequently these provided the policy makers with timely data and information towards evidence-based decision-making as well as measuring progress within the goals set under the National Strategies and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). 15. The Project envisaged and accomplished the following key activities: • Developed the methodological materials and recommendations; • Prepared and conducted the international meetings/workshops on agricultural and rural statistics related development issues; • Provided participation of specialists from CIS NSOs and CISSTAT in international agricultural and rural statistics conferences; • Selected and engaged seasoned consultants for development of methodological recommendations; and • Provided translation of the Project related materials from English to Russian and vice versa. 16. The latest internationally accepted methodology, definitions, and classifications were introduced in the agricultural and rural statistics division of the CIS NSOs. They allowed the foundation for developing the consistent and comparable data sets and strengthened the statistical practices within the CIS countries. Furthermore, these new and improved statistical data sets were conducted in parallel with improvements in underlying data collection and production process starting with receipts, processing, quality control, storage and disseminations methods. Thus, developing and improving the agricultural and rural statistics methodology, introducing the modern data collection approaches, strengthening the human capacity of the NSOs all led to better quality of data. Reliable and comprehensive statistical information are not only essential for the development of agricultural sector, understanding the climate change and planning of natural resources but also monitoring of food security and agricultural and human development policies and decision-making. 17. The theory of change builds on the following assumptions which are required for linking of the outputs to impact: (a) strengthened methodological basis; (b) continuous leadership of the CISSTAT; (c) cooperation among the CIS NSOs; (d) continuous capacity building through participation in the joint international events; and (e) continuous investment in the statistical infrastructure. For the long-term sustainable impact, the CIS Governments needs to maintain and further develop the results created by the project. Page 7 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 18. Overall objective of the project is to create the framework for national and regional statistical systems which will allow the collection and use of statistical data that are needed in making decisions regarding the development of agriculture and rural areas in the 21st century. Specific objectives are (i) integration of agriculture into the national statistical system in order to meet the users’ demand for consistent and compatible data by territories and over time; (ii) improvement of the sustainability of the agricultural statistical system through governance and statistical capacity building; (iii) identifying a minimum set of core data which will be collected by the countries to meet both current and emerging information requirements. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 19. As stated in the Concept Note of the Project, the key expected outcomes are: a) strengthened institutional capacity in the CIS countries and statistical expertise in the NSOs for data collection, analysis and dissemination of agricultural and rural statistics thus building the important information source for development, implementation and monitoring of agricultural and rural development sector policies and programs; and b) enhanced technical capacity of national agencies tasked to collect regular and reliable information on agricultural and rural sector based on the latest methodology, advanced data collection practices and experiences including data on food security, protection of the environment, and the ecological impacts of agriculture. 20. The Project’s interim indicators are: - Relevant tools and approaches were developed and introduced for CIS countries according to the advanced international standards in agricultural and rural statistics. The methodological framework to organize and conduct the agriculture surveys based on international classifiers and on a regular basis was developed including data on food security, protection of the environment, and the ecological impacts of agriculture; and - Relevant employment indicators needed for CIS countries were developed and exchanged. Components 21. The Project components and activities with the components were discussed and agreed with the CIS NSOs. The organization of the activities and tasks designed keeping in mind the most effective approach towards achieving the PDO. These were: (a) preparation of methodological materials and recommendations; (b) translation of materials of international organizations into Russian language; (c) holding meetings of specialists of national statistical offices to discuss methodological materials and share national experiences; (d) participation in the international events. Page 8 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) II. OUTCOME Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 22. The achievement of the PDO is aligned with progress towards higher level of outcomes that are supported by the outputs and activities delivered under the project. Improving the technical and human capacity of the national statistical organizations so that they can collect, use and disseminate the set of core indicators for analysis and decision making towards the development of agriculture sector and rural areas based on the latest internationally comparable methodology and approaches. 23. This has been achieved through preparation of methodological documents on various aspects of agricultural and rural statistics. Leading international experts were involved in the process of the preparation on a competitive basis. Upon proposal and agreement with the NSOs of the CIS countries, the following recommendations, comments, reviews and methodological reports were delivered: (a) Recommendations for agricultural statistics based on the practice and standards of international agencies covering legislative framework for the collection and formation of the main indicators, classifications of territorial units, types of economic activity, products and land use information as well as development of agro-ecological indicators and clean (organic) agriculture. The adoption and application of these methodological recommendations contribute to the sustainability of the agricultural statistical system in the CIS region NSOs through establishing the statistical information that meets the requirements of the international methodology, both at the indicator and classifier system levels. (b) Recommendations for harmonization and conversion methods for agricultural and rural statistics were analyzed and developed within the framework of the “Global Strategy to Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics�. “Minimum set of key data� and the “Selected indicators, data requirements and sources� were completed according to the FAO recommendation. (c) Recommendations on creating a system of producer price indices for agricultural products taking into account the seasonal production and use were developed based on the Guidelines for Producer Price Indices based on the International Monetary Fund and other statistical institutions thus improved the quality of statistical information on agricultural products prices and harmonized the calculation of price indices. (d) Methodology of the sample statistical survey of agricultural activities of small businesses, farms and households was developed by making the organization of sample surveys in agriculture more orderly, maximizing the coverage of agricultural producers and preventing the omission of statistical units because of their size, (un)importance, location, and/or other reasons. Based on the studies existing methodological provisions used in the CIS countries, sampling for small business entities, peasant (farmer) households and private farms of citizens engaged in agricultural activities was proposed. The practical implementation of the recommendations will allow feasibility of forming the territorial basis of the sample while ensuring the representativeness of the data obtained. As result of selective monitoring of agricultural activities, this Page 9 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) sampling approach will also improve the comparability of data between the CIS countries and at the global level within the agricultural statistics framework. (e) Methodological recommendations for calculating the value of output and intermediate consumption of agricultural products within the provisions of 2008 SNA thus compiling the production account for agriculture, output, intermediate consumption, gross value added of agriculture, and allowing the appropriate measure to organize heterogeneous information generated by different agricultural enterprises. (f) Methodological recommendations for calculating agricultural production index aimed at improving the quality and coverage of this information at the national statistical services of the CIS countries by providing the agricultural production indices and seasonal adjustment of indices in intra-annual basis according to the international best practices such as experiences of FAO and the EU. Recommendations for developing agricultural production indices consistent with the SNA were provided. This created high demands for the source data and reliable deflators of gross output and intermediate consumption which made possible by ensuring the coverage while simultaneously analyzing the dynamics of gross output, gross value added and intermediate consumption. The recommendation included information on updating the systems of weights, clarifying the composition of baskets of representative goods and linking the segments of time series with constructing of deflators. This deflation method allows construction of the time series of indices with annual, quarterly and monthly increments. The paper analyzes the issues associated with the seasonal adjustment of the time series of agricultural production indices, taking into account the specifics of the CIS countries. It has summarized that the seasonal adjustment can be solved within the integrated framework approach, thus one hand the developing and implementing algorithms and programs for the breakdown of time series data and other hand constructing long time series of comparable high frequency indicators, developing the software for calculations, building the databases and disseminating the results. (g) Recommendations for improving the agriculture census in CIS countries. Adopting the World Agricultural Census Round 2020 Program, developed under the leadership of the FAO, for CIS countries thus develop unified approaches to agricultural censuses in the CIS region. This will result in increased quality and coverage of indicators for the region characterizing the development of agricultural production, both in terms of the source of a minimum set of key data and in terms of creating a universal sampling frame. These methodological recommendations were discussed and approved at a meeting of the Scientific Council under the CIS-Stat on June 25, 2018. (h) Methodological recommendations on developing a system of indicators for assessing the state of food security in the CIS countries. This task aimed at developing the methodology and systemizing the indicators used for defining the food security and developing tools for monitoring the country's food security in the context of global trends. Considering that the level of food security by main food items varies by countries and depends on consumption standards, it was advised to calculate threshold values and indicators for the food security by taking into account the underlying same set of parameters used in global context. This will result in increased quality of food security monitoring conducted by the national statistical services of the CIS countries, and harmonization of the indicators towards measuring of SDGs. These methodological recommendations were reviewed and approved at a meeting of the Scientific Council under the CIS-Stat on April 24, 2019 and discussed at a meeting of experts of the CIS statistical services on improving agricultural Page 10 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) statistics: monitoring of food security, creating food balance sheets and sharing experience on organizing agricultural statistics in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan (September 3-5, 2019). (i) Recommendations on the developing methodology and system of agro-ecological indicators in the CIS region. This work aimed at developing agro-ecological indicators for implementing relevant natural resource and environmental measurements thus characterizing and analyzing the interaction of agriculture and the environment in the context of global trends. The research was conducted for agro-ecological activity, combining the agricultural production while taking into account the environmental protection and rational nature management, as well as the corresponding system of statistical indicators that allows you to track the process and the main results of the integrated activity. The study compiled the approaches of different international organizations how they determine the scope and structure of agro-ecological activities and individual actions, plus the proposed sets of accounting and statistical indicators. This will help builds the grounds for improving the quality of statistical observations of the state and development of agroecology conducted by the NSOs of the CIS countries, and the harmonization of agro-ecological indicators with the basic principles of development of environmental statistics, the SEEA, indicators used to measure SDGs, and other international environmental standards and/or recommendations. 24. The main need for translated materials was expressed by the experts of the CIS NSOs and the following documents were translated into Russian: (a) The joint publication of FAO and UNSD “Guidelines on International Classifications for Agricultural Statistics�, December 2015. (b) “The social dimension of rural statistics�, Favareto Da Silva, 2017. (c) “Food Balance Sheet Guidelines,� FAO, October 2017. (d) “Guidelines on improving and using administrative data in agricultural statistics� FAO, February 2018. (e) EU inter-country supply use and input-output tables — Full international and global accounts for research in input-output analysis (FIGARO), Eurostat, 2019. 25. There were the following thematic meetings organized with experts from the CIS NSOs as well as the participation of specialists from the CISSTAT and NSOs in the international events. Within the Project plan, five meetings were conducted in different CIS countries and the participation included specialists from CIS NSOs and international experts. (a) Implementation of the "Global Strategy for Improving Agricultural and Rural Statistics" in the CIS region (February 4-5, 2015, Budapest, Hungary); (b) Analysis of a set of indicators, data requirements, data sources in accordance with the current methodology of the CIS countries defined by the "Global Strategy for Improving Agricultural and Rural Statistics" (October 13-15, 2015, Dushanbe, Tajikistan); (c) Exchange of experience on the methodology and organization of conducting structural surveys (including censuses) in agriculture (September 6-8, 2016, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan); (d) On current status of work and issues of the agricultural census (September 18-19, 2018, Yerevan, Armenia); (e) On improving agricultural statistics: issues of monitoring food security, creating food balance sheets and sharing experiences on organizing agricultural statistics (September 3-5, 2019, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan). Page 11 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) 26. Total 126 specialists from the national statistical offices of the CIS countries participated in the conferences and events. The project organized the events in a way that expert consultants who were directly involved in the preparation of methodological documents, as well as representatives of the FAO and the relevant statistical community members to participate, which facilitated and improved the relevance and quality discussions significantly. After the discussion meetings, the final reports with main results and recommendations were prepared and submitted to the CISSTAT and the national statistical offices. 27. Furthermore, the specialists from the CIS-Stat participated in 8 international events directly related to the Project components and activities. These events were organized by the FAO, the UNECE, the Executive Committee of the CIS and other international organizations. The participation of the CIS-Stat specialists in these relevant events provided the opportunities to inform the international statistical community on the work carried out in the CIS region aimed at improving agricultural statistics and promoting the experience and practice of the CIS countries with rest of the global community. Overall Outcome Rating Relevance of Objectives, Design and Implementation 28. The project was designed to support the implementation of Strategy of Economic Development till 2020. Thus, the PDO is well-aligned with regional and national development plans of the official statistics. The relevant governments, CIS Executive Committee and other CIS institutions were in need of integrated and harmonized a minimum set of data and indicators on the agricultural sector by countries. 29. The project was designed in three main type of complimentary activities that enforced each other and they were consistent with the PDO aligned with the demands of CIS NSOs during the project preparation and implementation period. Activities supported under the Project enabled the CIS NSOs to produce and disseminate harmonized data on agricultural sector and rural areas according to the international standards. They also supported the professional capacity development in terms of agriculture statistics which provided the knowledge needed for modern day statistical system. The Project design benefited from the close coordination and engagement, and technical support provided by the Bank and other development partners. 30. The Project implementation was structured in line with the achievements towards the PDO. The project Working Group has setup a project implementation team at the CISSTAT to help bridge the experience needed for the international organization funded project implementation. This arrangement provided not only supported effective project implementation, but also contributed to the CISSTAT internal capacity building in implementing recipient-executed projects. 31. All targets set by the Project have been met with a supporting evidence provided in the last Implementation and Status Report ISR and the updated data at the closing of the project. Page 12 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) Justification of Overall Outcome rating – SATISFACTORY 32. A meeting of experts from the NSOs CIS was conducted before the implementation of the project. During this meeting experts discussed the “Global Strategy to Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics� (Global Strategy) in the CIS region. Representatives of the NSOs from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Ukraine confirmed that the implementation of the Global Strategy formed a basis for the coordinated development of the agricultural and rural statistics in all the CIS countries. The NSOs CIS also confirmed their participation in the action plan execution. These preparatory activities were highly relevant as methodological recommendations developed and carried out within the above-mentioned framework facilitated the opportunities to improve the collection and production of agriculture and rural statistics in the CIS region. 33. The project design and procurement plan needed to be designed in a way to facilitate the good combination and appropriate number of activities under each component thus ensuring efficient use of funds given under the limited budget of 557 thousand USD towards achieving the intended results. 34. The main achievement of the Project supported the significant improvements in compiling and monitoring of data and statistics need for development of agricultural and rural sector in the CIS region. The project has responded to the most important and agreed upon needs of the CIS NSOs, it also catalyzed the governments and other stakeholder interest in understanding the importance of statistics for monitoring and decision-making. Project objectives and design remained relevant throughout the implementation and concluded successfully with near full disbursement of funds; project efficacy and efficiency were also substantial. Based on the above, the project received a “satisfactory� overall outcome rating. Other Outcomes and Impacts 35. The Project activities provided the means to achieve harmonization of agricultural and rural statistics according to the internally accepted standards and practices. Major milestones of the project are as follows: (a) created a basis for harmonization of the methodology for the formation of statistical indicators of agricultural and rural statistics in accordance with international standards and recommendations; (b) increased the level of theoretical knowledge and practical experience of specialists of national statistical services in agricultural and rural statistics; (c) improved the quality of indicators of agricultural and rural statistics (based on relevant new methodological developments) and therefore provided users with the necessary information based on comprehensive analyses in the field of agricultural and rural statistics; (d) expanded the system of indicators comparable at the international level to provide users with data on the economic, demographic, social and environmental situation in the field of agricultural production; (e) improved the integration of agricultural statistics data into the system of national accounts, the system of indicators for assessing food security and the system of agro-ecological indicators. 36. No negative unintended outcomes were observed. Page 13 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME Implementation Arrangements 37. To assist the CISSTAT in the project implementation contracts with a procurement consultant, a financial consultant and a translator were concluded for the entire duration of the Project. All of them had sufficient knowledge and experience in World Bank project implementation. Together with the CISSTAT Working group they played an instrumental role in coordinating the implementation of project activities. 38. To organize the payment of per diems Subsidiary Grants agreements were concluded with Statistical Committees of Armenia, Republic of Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine and Committee on Statistics of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The CISSTAT received a refuse from the NSOs of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to its proposal to conclude the Subgrant Agreement with them for the entire duration of the Project. 39. Since 2016, representatives of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine have ceased to participate in events planned under the Project. In 2018, financial resources that were not spent on the participation of employees of the NSO of Ukraine were used for the participation of employees of the rest of the NSOs of the CIS countries. 40. The cost of the Project was originally set at USD 490, 000 for the period of 2014-2017. On March 28, 2017, upon the CISSTAT request and after the ECASTAT Steering Committee approval an amendment to the Grant Agreement was signed with a purpose of (i) Closing Date extension to December 31, 2018 and (ii) additional financing that increased the grant funds up to USD 557,000. The second restructuring was processed for closing date extension to December 31, 2019 to coordinate the project activities with efforts and activities planned by the relevant international organizations and beneficiary countries on the agriculture and rural areas and take into consideration the development of agro-ecological and food security indicators. Disbursement 41. The project has disbursed USD 553,406.86 or 99.35% of grant funds. Monitoring and Evaluation: Design, Implementation and Utilization 42. The Monitoring Indicators gave the ECASTAT and the Bank team a tool in monitoring and evaluating the project progress. This in turn impacted outcomes of the project by providing timely information on the progress and achievements needed for further actions from the implementing agency and the world bank team sides. Safeguard and Fiduciary Compliance 43. The project focused on capacity building of the CIS NSOs and CISSTAT. The Project did not have any Page 14 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) direct environmental or social impacts. Nor there were any civil works. No safeguard issues emanated during the implementation. The environmental rating C given to the project at the appraisal stage remained the same throughout the project implementation. 44. The fiduciary arrangements (financial management and procurement) remained satisfactory throughout the grant implementation period. There was an experienced financial management and disbursement consultant to support the grant activities. Semester IUFRs were submitted on time and were satisfactory to the Bank. Given the small size of the grant, there have been two audits carried out throughout its lifetime covering all the expenditures incurred. The audit opinions were clean, no issues were raised in the management letter. 45. The Procurement Post Review of the project rated the procurement process under the project as satisfactory. Procurement activities under the project were completed before the project closing date. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME Bank Performance 46. The World Bank team involved in the project preparation and implementation process made for a good mix of prior experience in implementing similar projects, substantial country experience, good project management skills and strong leadership to support the project. The Bank team liaised closely with the client at preparation stage and actively monitored project implementation, which allowed to act proactively and highlight potential implementation risks and propose possible solutions. Though the TTL was based at HQ, the procurement support and financial management were provided by the team member from the Moscow office – together with regular missions this allowed for more frequent interactions with the client, reduced response time, allowed for better synergies with other parts of the Bank program and reduced language barrier. Quality of Supervision 47. The quality of supervision was maintained at the adequate level throughout the project implementation. The number of team members involved in the supervision, including TTL, local FM and procurement specialists, remained stable and allowed to perform supervision activities in a timely manner, provide prompt advice and assistance to ECASTAT in resolving urgent or pending issues. The CISSTAT benefitted from gaining experience in fiduciary issues and international principles of financial management and procurement guiding the project implementation. Risks for sustainability 48. Sustainable financing. Sustainability of capacity building and statistical infrastructure investments is based on client ownership and a commitment of the government to mobilize financial support to the NSO. Through the results achieved under the Project, coordination among development partners and NSOs has improved and support to the budget—or, at least, specific activities in the future—has increased. Page 15 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) 49. Institutional stability. Wide Project coverage which involved the Governments and NSOs of eleven CIS countries is the major potential risk for sustainability of results. The economic trends and social conditions are different in the CIS countries, and there is always a lack of uniform approaches to address the similar issues. 50. Capacity of public sector. High staff turnover triggered by low wages in the public sector in CIS countries, and in the CIS NSOs, undermine the sustainability of capacity building and effectiveness of workshops conducted. Prepared methodological recommendations and established standards mitigate the negative impact of high staff turnover. V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS 51. Lessons learned could be summarized as follows: (i) to maximize involvement of client’s team and potential beneficiaries from the very beginning of the project preparation; (ii) to broaden participation of data users in related project activities not limiting the audience to statisticians only. . Page 16 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: The overall Project goal is to create the framework for national and regional statistical systems which will allow the collection and use of agricultural statistical data that are needed in making dec Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Integration of agriculture into Text No Yes Yes Yes the national statistical system of CIS countries 09-Apr-2014 31-Mar-2017 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Consistent methodological recommendations and guidelines for integrated of agricultural indicators into national statistical system of CIS countries are developed. Supporting evidence: recommendations developed for (i) computation of agricultural producer price indices under conditions of seasonal production and utilization (processing); sample statistical survey of agricultural activities of small businesses, farms and household plots; calculation of the output and intermediate consumption for agriculture; (iii) translation into Russian and dissemination of Guidelines on International Classifications for Agricultural Statistics; Guidelines on improving and using administrative data in agricultural statistics; Food Balance Sheet Guidelines. Page 17 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Improvement of the Text No Yes Yes Yes sustainability of the agricultural statistical system through 09-Apr-2014 31-Mar-2017 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 governance and statistical capacity building Comments (achievements against targets): The improvement of the sustainability of the agricultural statistical system through governance and statistical capacity building was reached with the development of recommendations and providing meetings. Supporting evidence: (i) recommendations developed for improvement of the agricultural census program for the CIS countries; creation of a system of indicators for assessing the state of food security in CIS countries; creation of a system of agro-ecological indicators in accordance with international standards, including methodology for their formation in the CIS region; (ii) providing meetings on current situation of agricultural statistics in CIS countries with the discussing of best practices and problems on structural survey, including agricultural census, (iii) identifying the further development of agricultural statistics. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Identifying a minimum set of Text No Yes Yes Yes core data which will be collected by the countries to 09-Apr-2014 31-Mar-2017 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 meet both current and emerging information requirements Comments (achievements against targets): Page 18 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) The minimum set of core data which will be collected by countries to meet both current and emerging information requirements was created in accordance with international methodologies FAO. Supporting evidence: (i) developed of conversion keys for the main indicators of agricultural and rural statistics in the CIS region; (ii) an expert’s meeting on the analysis of a set of indicators, data requirements, data sources in accordance with the current methodology of CIS countries, defined by the “Global Strategy to improve agricultural and rural statistics� was conducted. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Part 1: Provision of consultants' services to develop agriculture and rural statistics and methodologies to meet international standards and relevant data generation Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Development of Number 0.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 methodological materials on various issues of agricultural 09-Apr-2014 31-Mar-2017 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 and rural statistics Comments (achievements against targets): The main component of the Project is the preparation of methodological documents on various aspects of agricultural statistics aimed at its development. Leading international experts were involved in the process of their development on a competitive basis. Upon proposal and agreement with the NSOs CIS, 9 recommendations, proposals and methodological reports were developed. Page 19 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Dissemination of the Text No Yes Yes Yes developed methodological materials and training 09-Apr-2014 31-Mar-2017 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 programs on the website of CISSTAT Committee to advance CIS NSOs knowledge and strengthen practical experience Comments (achievements against targets): All relevant materials and guidelines can be accessed from the CISSTAT website at: http://www.cisstat.com/gsagr/ Component: Part 2: Organization of stakeholder discussions and workshops to enhance knowledge and skills of statistical staff of the CIS countries and disseminate new methodologies Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Organization of stakeholder Number 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 discussions and workshops to enhance knowledge and skills 09-Apr-2014 31-Mar-2017 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 of statistical staff in the CIS Countries Comments (achievements against targets): Page 20 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) Within the framework of the Project, five meetings were held with the participation of specialists from the national statistical offices of the CIS countries and international experts. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Number of CIS statisticians Number 0.00 100.00 100.00 126.00 trained 09-Apr-2014 31-Mar-2017 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): In total, 126 specialists from the NSOs CIS took part in these events. In addition to representatives of the CIS NSOs and the CIS-Stat, consultants who were directly involved in the preparation of methodological documents, as well as representatives of the FAO and the expert of other international organizations were invited to participate in meetings, which significantly raised the level of discussion. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Strengthening capacity of the Number 0.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 CISSTAT Committee to provide technical assistance in the area 09-Apr-2014 31-Mar-2017 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 of agricultural and rural statistics Comments (achievements against targets): Page 21 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) Participation of the CISSTAT experts in international conferences and workshops, discussions of the CIS countries NSOs. These events were organized by the FAO, the UNECE, the Executive Committee of the CIS and other international organizations. The participation of the CISSTAT specialists in these events made it possible to inform the international statistical communities about the work carried out in the CIS region aimed at improving agricultural statistics and to promote the experience and practice of the CIS countries among other countries of the world. Page 22 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) B. ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSESSMENT OF THE PDO Objective/Outcome 1 1. Enhanced technical capacity of national agencies tasked to collect regular and reliable information on agricultural and rural sector based Outcome Indicators on the latest methodology, advanced data collection practices and experiences including data on food security, protection of the environment, and the ecological impacts of agriculture. 1. Preparation of methodological documents on various aspects of agricultural statistics aimed at its development. Intermediate Results Indicators 2. Discussions of the materials and papers prepared in collaboration with experts on provided meetings and conferences. 1. Recommendations for agricultural statistics based on the practice and standards of international agencies. 2. Recommendations for harmonization and conversion methods for agricultural and rural statistics. 3. Recommendations on creating a system of producer price indices for agricultural products taking into account the seasonal production and use. 4. Methodology of the sample statistical survey of agricultural Key Outputs by Component activities of small businesses, farms and households. (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 5. Methodological recommendations for calculating the value of output and intermediate consumption of agricultural products. 6. Methodological recommendations for calculating agricultural production index. 7. Recommendations for improving the agriculture census in CIS countries. 8. Methodological recommendations on developing a system of indicators for assessing the state of food security in the CIS countries. Page 23 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) 9. Recommendations on the developing methodology and system of agro-ecological indicators in the CIS region. Objective/Outcome 2 1. Strengthened institutional capacity in the CIS countries and statistical expertise in the NSOs for data collection, analysis and dissemination of agricultural and rural statistics thus building the Outcome Indicators important information source for development, implementation and monitoring of agricultural and rural development sector policies and programs based on the data exchange in the region of the CIS countries. 1. Thematic meetings with statisticians from the CIS NSOs, participation of specialists from the CISSTAT and international experts. Intermediate Results Indicators Participation of CIS NSOs and CISSTAT staff in the international events, including conferences, seminars and workshops. 1. Implementation of the "Global Strategy for Improving Agricultural and Rural Statistics" in the CIS region (February 4-5, 2015, Budapest, Hungary). 2. Analysis of a set of indicators, data requirements, data sources in accordance with the current methodology of the CIS countries defined by the "Global Strategy for Improving Agricultural and Rural Statistics" Key Outputs by Component (October 13-15, 2015, Dushanbe, Tajikistan). (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) 3. Exchange of experience on the methodology and organization of conducting structural surveys (including censuses) in agriculture (September 6-8, 2016, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan). 4. On current status of work and issues of the agricultural census (September 18-19, 2018, Yerevan, Armenia). 5. On improving agricultural statistics: issues of monitoring food security, creating food balance sheets and sharing experiences on Page 24 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) organizing agricultural statistics (September 3-5, 2019, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan). Page 25 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) . ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Approval Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) (US$M) Total 0.49 0.55 112 Page 26 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) ANNEX 3. RECIPIENT, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS 1. The implementation of the “Global Strategy for Improving Agricultural and Rural Statistics� in the CIS region allowed: (i) to create a basis for harmonization of the methodology for the formation of statistical indicators of agricultural and rural statistics in accordance with international standards and recommendations; (ii) to increase the level of theoretical knowledge and practical experience of specialists of national statistical services in agricultural and rural statistics; (iii) to improve the quality of indicators of agricultural and rural statistics (based on relevant new methodological developments) in order to provide users with the necessary information, providing a comprehensive analysis in the field of agricultural and rural statistics; (iv) to expand the system of indicators comparable at the international level to provide users with data on the economic, demographic, social and environmental situation in the field of agricultural production; (v) to improve the integration of agricultural statistics data into the system of national accounts, the system of indicators for assessing food security and the system of agro-ecological indicators. 2. Among the promising directions for the further development of work in the field of agricultural statistics, it is worth noting, in particular, the timing of the preparation and conduct of agricultural censuses using the most harmonized list of indicators, which provides the possibility of international comparisons, the development of a methodology for creating food resource balances in terms of improving interaction national statistical services with ministries and departments for perfect parameters used in the calculations and coefficients. 3. The results of the implementation of the Global Strategy in the CIS region were presented at the 62nd World Statistical Congress (August 18-23, 2019) of the International Statistical Institute. 4. The effectiveness of the CIS-Stat on the implementation of the "Global Strategy for Improving Agricultural and Rural Statistics" in the CIS region is confirmed by the decisions of meetings organized within the framework of this project. 5. All prepared methodological materials, in the opinion of CIS NSOs specialists, are developed on the high level. There direct implementation into the statistical practice of the countries will not need additional efforts. The majority of the methodological works carried out in accordance with the Project passed the procedure of consideration and discussion during the meetings of the CISSTAT Scientific Commission and/or the meeting of the CIS NSOs specialists. 6. All the CIS NSOs were involved in the work on the Project (except for the Ukrainian colleagues after 2016; their representatives took part in the preparation of the TORs on the methodological works, addressed the meetings with the presentations and reports, participated in the discussions. As the result of the Project’s implementation the interpersonal relations between the CIS NSOs agricultural statisticians improved which will facilitates the exchange of the national experience further. 7. Methodological materials prepared by the CIS Statistical Committee and translations of documents developed by international organizations were sent to the NSOs CIS and posted on the official website of the CIS-Stat under the heading “Global Strategy for Improving Agricultural and Rural statistics" http://www.cisstat.com/gsagr/ Page 27 of 28 The World Bank Development of Agricultural and Rural Statistics in CIS region (P150037) ANNEX 4. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) http://www.cisstat.com/gsagr/ Page 28 of 28