95406 Albania CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE COUNTRY NOTE February 2011 www.worldbank.org/eca/climateandagriculture This Country Note for Albania is part of series of country briefs that summarizes information relevant to climate change and agriculture for four pilot countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region, with a particular focus on climate and crop projections, adaptation options, policy development, and institutional involvement. The Note series has been developed to provide a baseline of knowledge on climate change and agriculture for the pilot countries (including Albania) participating in the Regional Program on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in ECA Agricultural Systems. For Albania, this note was shared with the Government and other agricultural sector stakeholders, and used as an engagement tool for the National Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Albania’s Agricultural Systems, held in Tirana in May 2009. Feedback and comments on the Note from this consultation process have been incorporated into this updated version in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Protection (MoAFCP). Climate Change Exposure and Risk for Albania In this Note Agriculture is extremely important for rural livelihoods in Albania, with approximately 58% of the population I. Introduction................................................................2 employed in the sector and 21% of the country’s GDP II. Overview of Agriculture............................................2 3 derived agriculture. Agriculture is a highly climate- III. Agriculture and the Adaption Deficit......................3 sensitive sector and much of Albania’s rural population IV. Agriculture and the Economy...................................4 is vulnerable to climate change. Historical data V. Agriculture and the Environment............................4 indicates that Albania is characterized by a highly variable climate that has already experienced an VI. The Climate Context..................................................5 increase in mean temperature, extreme hot days and VII. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and evapotranspiration (aridity). Climate projections for the Water Resources........................................................7 future indicate that on average Albania will be exposed VIII. Potential Adaption Measures for the Agricultural to: Sector.........................................................................11 o A 2 C increase in mean annual temperature for IX. Impacts of Agriculture on Greenhouse Gas winter and summer by 2049 Emissions...................................................................12 A decline of mean precipitation of 8% by 2049 X. The Policy Context...................................................13 XI. The Institutional Context.........................................14 A 28% decline in annual water availability for crops XII. Ways Forward..........................................................15 by 2050 An overall increase in the total number of Albania at a Glance3 consecutive dry days and an overall decrease in the number of frost days by 2049 Population 3,155,271 An increase in the Heatwave Duration Index of 20 Population below the 18.5% days by 2049 poverty line GDP US $11.8 billion (2009) Increased exposure to new pests and diseases for GDP Per Capita US $1,182 (2009) agricultural crops and livestock due to changes in the temperature and precipitation regime Share of Agriculture in 21% . GDP 1 I. Introduction The Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region of the World Bank recently released a report titled “ Managing Uncertainty: 1 Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia.” This report is a flagship document that raises awareness of the threats, challenges and opportunities that ECA countries and communities will face in adapting to climate change across a variety of economic sectors. This Country Note was developed as a basis for beginning work in Albania under a World Bank regional program designed to enhance the ability of ECA countries to mainstream climate change adaptation into 2 agricultural investments, policies and investments. To support the Albanian Government in this effort it was agreed that Figure 1: Albania Vulnerability Indicators the Albanian Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Protection and the World Bank would work together to jointly develop Albania’s Response to Climate Change and Albania ECA ^ Agriculture. Risk of extreme weather events (index) 100 Agriculture is of significant importance to Albania in terms of Rural population below $5/day 80 Soil degradation (%) employment, rural livelihoods, food security and sustainability (%) 60 and exports. This sector, however, is highly climate-sensitive. Potential adverse changes in temperature, precipitation and the 40 frequency of extreme events such as heat waves, floods and Share of food - total expenditures (%) 20 Rainfed cropland (%) forest fires are likely to worsen inequalities which currently exist 0 between the rich and the more vulnerable poor populations in the country. This deterioration will place a further strain on institutions, food supply and rural growth. Additionally, the GDP from agriculture (%) Uninsured cropland* (%) country’s weak financial position and underdeveloped institutional capacity to respond to natural climatic hazards pose a threat to future sustainable agricultural production and Water usage in Agriculture (%) Employment in agriculture (%) rural development in Albania. Figure 1 displays nine climate change vulnerability indicators and compares Albania to the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Note: ^ECA statistics come from transitioning and developing economies in Region average for transition economies. While agriculture Eastern Europe and Central Asia, where available; employment in agriculture (% of total employment); rain-fed cropping (% of cropland); water usage in and rural livelihoods in Albania appear to be equal to or less agriculture (% of total annual freshwater extraction); uninsured cropland vulnerable than the ECA average to climate change for a some (estimate); soil degradation (% of total land); risk of extreme weather events (additional 1:20 year events 2070-2100 vs. 1961-1990); share of food – % of indicators, four key categories where Albania appears more total expenditures; GDP from Agriculture; Sources: World Development vulnerable than other countries in the region are soil Indicators 2008; EarthTrends 2003, FAO AGL 2005; Baettig, M. et al., 2007. ECA Databank degradation, total employment in agriculture, percentage of GDP derived from agriculture and rural population living below US $5 per day. When comparing Albania’s vulnerability to climate change with high income European countries (for categories where figures are available), the differences are stark, with high income European countries having an average of just 4.5% of the population employed in agriculture, as opposed to 58% in Albania. Additionally, the average GDP derived from agriculture for Albania is 21% - considerably higher than 3 the 2% average in high income European countries. II. Overview of Agriculture Land use for agriculture is very substantial in Albania, with arable Acknowledgements: land, cropland, pastures and forests accounting for nearly 40% of total land use in the country (see Figure 2) and forests comprise an This Country Note was produced by a World Bank team 4 additional 29%. Only half of Albania’s total cropland is irrigated, led by William Sutton, comprising Jitendra Srivastava, leaving the other 50% dependent on rainfall, which does not meet Brendan Lynch, John Mackedon, Ibrajim Hackaj and Biljana Dzartova-Petrovska (SIDA Albania) under Albania’s water needs during the crucial months of the summer ECSSD Sector Manager Dina Umali-Deininger. Funding growing season. Although annual rainfall in Albania is between 600- was provided by the Trust Fund for Environmentally and 900mm, less than 20 percent of this rain occurs in the six month Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD), and the period between April and September, leaving the country with a crop Bank-Netherlands Partnership Program (BNPP). For 5 more information, please visit our website at deficit of 400-500mm during June, July and August. This deficit worldbank.org/eca/climateandagriculture or email John renders efficient, cost effective and timely irrigation almost a Mackedon at jmackedon@worldbank.org necessity for Albania to produce competitive, high value summer and perennial crops. 2 The area planted for the production of a variety of crops in Figure 2: Land Use in Albania Albania in 2009 is shown in Figure 3. By area, wheat is by far the major annual crop grown in Albania, occupying nearly four times as much cropland as the next most abundant crop, maize. Following these two crops, olives and beans represent Albania’s two largest perennial crops, occupying nearly 55,000ha combined. Although the area Other Forest occupied by figs and other fruits is relatively small, potential 31% 29% exists to expand this area in the future. There can also be significant changes in mix and crop area planted on a year- to-year basis in Albania, given that nearly half of the crop production is rain-fed. These changes will depend on the timing and quantity of rainfall, as well as extreme events, Arable such as floods and droughts. Pasture Land 15% Albania has been involved in organic farming since the early 21% 1990s and nearly 14,000 hectares of land are being Cropland organically farmed at approximately 90 different farms. The 4% major organic crops grown in Albania include various fruits and vegetables. Smaller quantities of organic eggs, Source: World Development Indicators, 2008. The World Bank cheese, wine, honey and meat are also being produced in 6 the country today. Given the increasing demand for organic produce, the suitability of cropland in Albania’s and the countries experience in the organic agricultural se ctor, there is scope for further expansion in this sector – especially for high value horticulture and vegetable crops. Agriculture is a climate sensitive sector and projected changes in agricultural production, water availability, food security and sustainability and economic growth for rural livelihoods pose serious risks in Albania. Throughout the country there will be variation in both vulnerability to climate change and associated adaptive Figure 3: Area Planted By Crop in Albania, 2009 capacity, depending on a range of factors. These factors include the 90,000 current climatic expose of Albania, social 80,000 structures, institutional capacity, financial 70,000 capacity, knowledge and education and 60,000 access to infrastructure. Areas already 50,000 under marginal rain-fed production will be 40,000 at increasing risk while communities in 30,000 relatively high rainfall and irrigated areas 20,000 will be presented with more adaptation 10,000 options to help protect their agricultural 0 systems against projected changes in climate. Potential opportunities to increase productions as a result of climate change exist. However, these opportunities depend on appropriate policies and measures being implemented at both the national and local levels. Source: http://faostat.fao.org III. Agriculture and the Adaptation Deficit The sensitivity of the agricultural sector to climate change has significant implications in Albania. With the majority of the rural population poor and dependent on agriculture, rural communities are particularly vulnerable to any changes that may 7 occur as a result of climate change. This risk is amplified by Albania’s relatively low productive capacity associated with a lack of adaptive capacity to the present climate, also known as the adaptation deficit. This deficit is best illustrated by a comparison of wheat yields from other countries in the region, displayed in Figure 4. Wheat remains a very important crop 3 in Albania and dominates land use in the country (see Figure 3). Despite economic hardships in Albania, wheat Figure 4: Compararative Average Wheat Yields, 2007-09 yields have continued to grow at an 80000 average annual rate of 1.6%csince the 70000 7 early 1990s. Despite this growth, 60000 however, Albania’s adaptation deficit has 50000 resulted in overall underperformance in 40000 wheat yields. Although Albania 30000 20000 outperformed regional neighbors such as 10000 Macedonia and Moldova, the country’s 0 average wheat yield between 2007 and 2009 was just 76% of Croatia’s and 73% 8 of the EU-27 countries. A set of complex factors attributes for this overall underperformance. These factors include distortions and imperfections in agricultural output and input markets, Source: http://faostat.fao.org poor quality public services in areas like agricultural education, extension, research and market information systems, underdeveloped agricultural land markets, lack of access to finance, unsustainable management of soils, insufficient irrigation and high vulnerability to natural hazards such as frosts, severe storms, droughts and floods. IV. Agriculture and the Economy The economy of Albania has experienced Figure 5: Average Value of Agricultural Production by many fluctuations over the last twenty years, Commodity, 2007-09 and an economic collapse occurred in 1997. Although this economic collapse damaged 250000 Albania’s economy, GDP has risen in the 200000 country since then and reached US $11.8 150000 billion in 2009, with GDP per capita reaching 3 100000 US $1,182. While agriculture has traditionally been the backbone of the 50000 Albanian economy this sector has been 0 greatly outstripped by other sectors in recent years and the contribution of agriculture to GDP fell from 56% in 1997 to 20.7% in 3 2007. Despite this decline in economic importance, Albania remains an agrarian society and the agriculture sector provided 58.3% of total employment between 2004- 3 06, with the value of agricultural and agro- Source: http://faostat.fao.org industry products reaching a combined total of US $1.98 billion in 2009. Furthermore, 9 with 73.2% of the rural population earning less than $5/day, the importance of agriculture to the rural livelihoods of Albanians should not be understated. Although field crops such as wheat and maize are grown extensively in Albania and occupy a large percentage of total cropland, their contribution by value is significantly less than the contribution made by other products - particularly cow milk which maintained a higher average value than the combined value of grapes, wheat, cattle meat, tomatoes and sheep milk from 2007-09 (see Figure 5). V. Agriculture and the Environment Agri-environmental management has implications for the resilience of Albania’s agricultural sector to climate change. The most significant impacts Albania’s agriculture has on the environment are associated with poor structure and fertility, acidification, inefficient water use, lack of pesticide regulation, abandoned farmland, illegal logging, land 4 18 salinization. All of these issues adversely affect the natural resource base of the country and increase the vulnerability of agricultural systems and rural livelihoods to external shocks, like climate change. Improper land use and management has created significant problems for Albania’s agricultural sector, resulting in soil erosion and improper pasture management. Pedoclimatic factors such as altitude, mountainous terrain, rainfall and bare slopes have combined with such human factors as deforestation, irrigation with flow, and decreasing maintenance of agricultural 10 land to result in soil erosion as high as 30 ton/ha per year in 70% of the country. Furthermore, it is estimated that an 10 additional 100,000 hectares of agricultural lands are undergoing desertification as a result of poor vegetation cover. This situation is exacerbated by improper pasture management in Albania. The majority of the pastures in Albania are in fair to poor condition, with more than half of this land being inappropriately grazed and more than 60% showing signs 10 of erosion. VI. The Climate Context Climate Description and Historical Trends 11 The climate of Albania is characterized by mild winters, featuring abundant rainfall, and hot, dry summers. Depending on the season and region, Albania’s climate is influenced by Mediterranean and Continental weather systems, which interact with the mountainous region across the north and east of the country to cause variations in temperature and rainfall. Albania can be divided into three agro-ecological zones, based on soil, climatic, topographic, and socio-economic features including 12 access to agricultural services and inputs, and development of markets and infrastructure. Each of these zones will be impacted differently by climate change due to variations in climate, biophysical distinctions, and production systems. The three agro-ecological zones of Albania are the Mountain Zone, hill Zone and lowland zone and are displayed in Figure 6. Figure 6: Agro-Ecological Zones of Albania 5 The diverse geography of Albania produces a varied climate. The climate is warm and mild along the western, Adriatic coastline and nearby plains. As the elevation rises to the east, the climate grows less mild, with colder winters and more precipitation in summer months. Annual mean temperature for Albania varies by Agro-Ecological Zone, with mean o temperatures in the mountainous zone ranging from 4-12 C and mean temperatures for the coastal areas ranging from 12- o 18 C. Although Albania receives an abundance of annual precipitation, the spatial distribution of this precipitation varies by region. Precipitation in the coastal and plains areas generally ranges from 600 to 1000mm per year, while the 13 mountainous region in the north of the country has extremely high precipitation, with averages up to 3000mm. The majority of precipitation occurs during the cold autumn and winter months with approximately 70% of precipitation occurring 13 from October through March. The summer months are generally very dry with the lowest precipitation totals occurring in July and August. Climate Projections The Second National Communication of Albania outlines Table 1: Future Temperature Projections for climate projections for the country, at the national scale as well Albania by season (oc) as on a seasonal basis. The general trends from this analysis Season Time Horizon indicate that temperature in Albania is expected to increase and precipitation is expected to decrease, resulting in milder winters, warmer springs, hotter and drier summers and drier 2025 2050 2100 13 autumns. Table 1 indicates that annual temperatures are Winter 0.7-0.9 1.5-1.9 2.4-4.5 projected to increase by as much as 2.3 degrees Celsius by Spring 0.7-0.9 1.4-1.8 2.3-4.2 2050, with projected increases of more than 3 degrees during Summer 1.2-1.5 2.4-3.1 4.0-7.3 the summer months. By 2100, these increases are projected to rise by 5.3 degrees on an annual basis and by as much as Autumn 0.8-1.1 1.7-2.2 2.9-5.2 7.3 degrees during the summer months. This increase in Annual 0.8-1.1 1.7-2.3 2.9-5.3 temperature is expected to increase the occurrence of extreme events, such as drought, especially during the summer months. Source: The Second National Communication of Albania to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Tirana & Ministry of Environment, Forest and Water Administration & United Nations Higher temperatures in winter may also result in greater risks Development Programme- Albania, 2009. Albania’s Technology Needs Assessment, Republic of Albania, Tirana. of soil erosion, as higher average temperatures may result in 21 more precipitation falling in the form of rain, rather than snow. Furthermore, increased temperatures may reduce the growing season for some crops, advance the dates for cereal harvest and shorten the length of the grain-filling period. In the absence of any implementation of adaptation measures, these potential negative impacts will greatly outweigh any benefits for the agricultural sector resulting from climate change. Table 2: Future Precipitation Projections for While temperatures are projected to increase as Albania (mm) a result of climate change in Albania, overall Season Time Horizon precipitation is projected to decline and become more variable. Season variation of this 2025 2050 2100 projected decline in precipitation could be Winter – 1.8 to – 1.3 –3.6 to –2.8 –3.6 to –2.8 particularly devastating for the agricultural Spring –1.2 to –0.9 –2.5 to –1.9 –5.8 to –3.2 sector, as the greatest declines are projected to occur during the crucial summer months. While Summer –11.5 to –8.7 –23.2 to –17.8 –54.1 to –29.5 overall decline in annual precipitation is Autumn –3.0 to –2.3 –6.1 to –4.7 –14.2 to –7.7 projected to be as high as 6.9 mm by 2050, Annual -3.4- -2.6 -6.9-- 5.3 16.2- -8.8 decreases of up to 23mm are projected during Source: The Second National Communication of Albania to the United Nations Framework the summer months, which can severely impact Convention on Climate Change, Tirana & Ministry of Environment, Forest and Water Administration & the growing season in Albania. These declines United Nations Development Programme are projected to reach annual highs of 16mm by 2100, with projected decreases of more than 54mm during the critical growing season in the summer months. Forecasted precipitation declines are greatest in the key May-September period, when precipitation is already at its lowest, particularly in the southern and northern areas of the country. Furthermore, winter floods in recent years in Albania indicate the potential impacts increased variability in precipitation can have on the country. These seasonal changes in temperatures and precipitation will have clear implications for crop and livestock production if no adaptation measures are adopted beyond those already employed by farmers in Albania – including changes in planting dates to respond to changes in climate, crop rotation and improved soil management. 6 Figure 7: Climate Change Vulnerability Index, ECA Region A series of indices were developed in the recent World Bank report “Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia” which assess the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of countries in the ECA Region to climate change. These indices are based on a range of parameters. The vulnerability index displayed in Figure 7 is a combination of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices. The vulnerability of Albania to climate change, based on this index, can be classified as high compared to other countries in the region, and is second only to Tajikistan. The main underlying drivers of vulnerability identified were the high exposure to extreme climate events, moderate adaptive capacity and particular social and Source: The Source: World Bank, 2009. Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia, Washington productive structures – which all enhance DC. the sensitivity of Albania to climate 14 change. VII. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Water Resources Agricultural Risks and Opportunities While both risks and opportunities for the agricultural sector in Albania may arise as a result of climate change, the downside risks for countries across the Southern Mediterranean zone, including Albania, are more significant in 15 comparison to any other production zone in Europe and outweigh any potential benefits. Albania is not well positioned to take full advantage of any opportunities Table 3: Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for the Agricultural which may arise for those crops which Sector in the Continental South Zone of Europe, Including Albania could benefit from a changing climate Mediterranean Detail of Risk/Opportunity Magnitude Likelihood Priority unless investments and structural South Zone changes are implemented which Crop area changes due to address the country’s relative decrease in optimal farming HIGH HIGH HIGH inefficiency, poor adaptive capacity and conditions low productivity in the agricultural RISK Crop productivity decrease LOW HIGH MEDIUM sector. Increased risk of agricultural HIGH MEDIUM HIGH pests, diseases, and weeds Crop quality decrease MEDIUM HIGH HIGH Changing climatic conditions, such as Increased risk of drought and HIGH HIGH HIGH increases in temperatures and changes water scarcity in precipitation trends, combined with Increased irrigation HIGH HIGH HIGH increased extreme events pose a requirements serious threat to crop yields in Albania. Soil erosion, salinization, and HIGH HIGH HIGH Furthermore, these changes may lead desertification to problems associated with an array of Deterioration of conditions for MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM agronomic issues, including increased livestock production salinity, damage to soil structure Sea level rise HIGH HIGH HIGH (reducing land productivity) and OPPORTUNITY None NONE NONE NONE exposure to new pests and diseases Source: Iglesias, A. et al., 2007. Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector, AEA that challenge existing plant and animal Energy & Environment, Didcot. genetics and management. Additionally, changes in temperature, precipitation and water availability will also affect the livestock sector in terms of animal health, nutrition, husbandry and livestock-related infrastructure. Changing climatic conditions will adversely affect fodder and forage production and rangeland biomass, which could lead to volatile feed prices, increased competition for community grazing lands and increased water scarcity. Given these constraints there could be shifts in production from 7 intensive to less intensive livestock systems and an increased risk of losses for small-scale producers, who comprise the majority of the rural population in Albania. A recent report evaluated the risks and opportunities for agricultural production in nine zones across Europe. This was done within a risk management framework looking at the risks and opportunities for the agricultural sector, the magnitude of the impact, the likelihood of the impact and the priority given for investment and action. The challenge for the Southern Mediterranean zone (including Albania) is stark - with nine downside risks and no upside opportunities identified (see 15 Table 3). Seven of the risks identified are classified as high priority, in terms of investment and action. It is clear that attention to the development and adoption of adaptation measures is required to ensure that agricultural systems remain resilient in the face of a changing climate. Potential impacts on the Livestock Sector Livestock has long been an important component of the Albanian agricultural economy. After privatization of agriculture in the early 1990s, livestock increased by 90% due to growing demand for livestock products and low capital requirements. This increase in livestock has resulted in an increase in the production of forage crops, especially alfalfa. Today, livestock accounts for more than half of the total value of agricultural production in Albania, making risks resulting from climate 13 change particularly volatile. The estimated share of rural households who own livestock in Albania is 84%, with the share 22 of rural livelihoods from this sector estimated as high as 51%. Furthermore, Livestock is recognized as both a contributor to, and victim of, climate change, highlighting the need for policy interventions and technical solutions which focus on adaptation measures which can reduce the impacts of climate change on livestock while simultaneously lessen the contribution of this sector to climate change. Although analyzing the impact of climate change on the livestock sector is relatively new in comparison to analyzing field crops, the Second National Communication of Albania and recent World Bank analysis nonetheless outlines some direct and indirect effects of climate change on the livestock sector. It is likely that some of the greatest impacts of climate change will be felt in grazing systems, which can have far reaching 33 consequences for animal production through the effects on forage and range productivity. The effects on alfalfa and rain- fed pasture crops represent the majority of the indirect effects of climate change on the agricultural sector in Albania. Because rain-fed alfalfa and grassland yields are generally projected to increase in the northern mountain and southern highland AEZs, where livestock makes up a larger percentage of overall agricultural productivity, the indirect effects of climate change in these areas will range from relatively modest to beneficial. The direct effect of climate change on livestock, such as higher than optimal temperatures, can affect animal productivity and lead to elevated mortality rates related to extreme heat stress. Studies have shown that as temperatures rise, beef cattle have been found to experience increases in mortality, reduced reproduction and feed intake, and other negative effects. Additionally, chickens have been found to be particularly vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change, as they can only tolerate narrow temperature ranges, beyond which reproduction and growth are negatively affected. These effects can be compounded by enclosed poultry housing systems. In contrast to the indirect effects, the direct effects of climate change on the livestock sector are projected to be negative or, in many instances, severely negative. Because cattle and poultry are closer to their optimal temperature range under current climactic conditions in Albania at present, they are less resilient than goats and sheep to the effects of projected elevated temperatures in the country. Furthermore, livestock patterns may be impacted by increased pests and diseases which may result from a change in climate. These projected direct and indirect effects on livestock could have far-reaching consequences for Albania, owing to the relative reliance on this sector. Emphasis should be placed on adaptation measures which address the current situation in Albania, as well as the projected impacts of climate change on agricultural systems, particularly in the more mountainous areas of the country. These measures should include:  introduction of more heat-tolerant and drought-resistant breeds of cattle and sheep  Improved housing for livestock 8  Improved nutrient management for livestock  More advanced health-facilities and techniques for the livestock sector Projected Crop Yield Impacts Figure 8: Projected Change in Rain-fed, Wheat and Maize Yields in 2025 and 2050 2025 Rain-fed Wheat, % Change in Yields 2050 Rain-fed Wheat, % Change in Yields Compared with Present Compared with Present 2025 Rain-fed Maize, % Change in Yields 2050 Rain-fed Maize, % Change in Yields Compared with Present Compared with Present Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/ and Fischer, G., et.al. 2007. Global Agro-ecological Zone Assessment for Agriculture. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria & FAO, Rome, Italy. 9 Various local studies have been undertaken to project the impact of climate change on crop yields for Albania. Although projections vary, there is general agreement that impacts will be negative after 2050 for a variety of summer and perennial crops across the majority of the country. Yield projections developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for rain-fed wheat and maize yields for 2025 and 2050 are displayed in Figures 8. The projections clearly display the spatial variability of yield impacts across the country and the difference between crops for both time periods. For rain-fed wheat, the major growing areas are projected to experience a moderate change in yields of +/- 10% for both 2025 and 2050. For rain-fed maize, however, yield declines of 10% - 25% are projected for 2025 and severe declines of greater than 25% by 2050. As maize is a summer crop, these declining yield projections can also be used, to some extent, as a proxy indicator for other rain-fed summer crops, like vegetables. Projected Water Resources Impacts Although rainfall is abundant in Albania, with annual mean precipitation of approximately 1500mm per year, only 20% of this precipitation occurs during the crucial growing period between April and September. As a result of this precipitation trend, crop deficit during June, July and August ranges from 400-500mm, making irrigation a necessity throughout all of Albania. Restructuring of state farms and Figure 9: Projected Water Runoff and Demand in Albania increased water usage on small, private farms by 2050, compared to present has resulted in increased water demand for agriculture in the past several decades. In addition to water deficits in crucial summer months, Albania has a history of relatively frequent flooding, especially over the last two decades, owing to deforestation, overgrazing and erosion. Further contributing factors include a lack of maintenance of drainage canals and pumping stations. In recent years, flooding has been most prevalent in the months of May-December and severe floods have occurred during the last two winters in Albania. These changes in rainfall patterns and increases in extreme events underscore the need to implement adaptation measures which can help Albania’s agricultural systems in the short, medium and long terms. During this same time period, maintenance of irrigation and drainage systems has waned, creating water-use inefficiencies and increasing water demands for agriculture. The latest local modeling for the projected impact of climate change on water resources of Source: Draft Albanian Impact Assessment and Menu of Adaptation Options, the Albania was undertaken in the Second World Bank, 2011 National Communication. The primary catchment of Albania is the Drini river catchment, which includes the both the Drini and Buna rivers as well as the Prespa lakes, which participate in the water flow of the Drini river. As the climate changes, changes in precipitation will directly impact water resource availability in Albania. A shift from precipitation in the form of snow to rain, coupled with rising temperatures and evapotranspiration, is projected to impact the overall quantity of water stored in Albanian reservoirs in winter. Despite these changes and substantial projected increases in water demands, the overall abundance of water in Albania is projected to provide adequate water availability for increased irrigation and other water demands (see Figure 9). However, without improvements in drainage, water delivery systems and overall water management, agriculture in Albania will continue to suffer in spite of this abundance of water and projected changes in climate will only intensify current inefficiencies and other water-related problems. VIII. Potential Adaptation Measures for the Agricultural Sector Albania’s Second Communication, Albania’s Technology Needs Assessment and other documents outline a range of adaptation options for a number of sectors, including agriculture, forestry and water (see Table 4). A number of the adaptation options discussed are ready for immediate implementation and are also technologies proven to increase 10 productivity – a “win-win” situation. However, a series of constraints associated with a variety of economic and social factors has hindered these adaptation measures from being implemented. Because of low levels of productivity, Albania imports a significant quantity of food products from a variety of countries that could otherwise be grown domestically. With growing global demand and increased agricultural vulnerability under climate change, this could create food sustainability and food security challenges for Albania. Poor rural communities are particularly exposed, owing to the fact that these communities have limited purchasing power in global food markets. Consequently, if adaptation options can be implemented, the twin risks associated with climate change and food security can be minimized jointly. Table 4: Adaptation Options for Albania, by Sector Sector Adaptation Option Improve weather and seasonal climate forecasts Agriculture Afforestation and the setting up of barriers to protect arable land threatened by soil Asdas erosion and alteration Planning of agricultural production towards xerophilic crops to allow adaptation to the higher winter and summer temperatures and to the scarcity of water in summer. Agricultural development should be adjusted towards species that would adapt best to the expected soil and atmospheric conditions i. Biotechnology development of “designer cultivars” to adapt to stresses of climate change (heat, water, pests and diseases). Implementation of practices to conserve moisture (agro-technique measures like conservation tillage to protect soil from wind and water erosion; retain moisture by reducing evaporation and increasing infiltration of precipitation into the soil) Developing improved agronomy and risk management techniques associated with changing sowing dates to reduce moisture stress and changing plant densities. Increased participation of famers through Water User Associations Removal of sediments from reservoirs to increase water storage capacity Irrigation Improvements of the conveyance schemes Modification of existing infrastructure, including pumping stations, water canals, etc… Modernization of on-farm distribution systems Modification of downstream river bed in order to prevent flooding of fields Private groundwater development Participation of farmers through Water User Associations Consolidation of extension organizations for irrigated crops Introduction of new irrigation techniques Improved farmhouse micro-climate management through the use of thermal insulating Livestock construction materials and modern ventilation systems to protect livestock from extreme conditions and increase productivity. Installation and use of anaerobic digesters for reduced CH4 emission from livestock waste Separation, aeration, or shift to solid handling or storage management systems Liquid manure systems (aeration of slurry, application of manure onto green manure crops); Improved animal genetics and reproduction. Source: The Second National Communication of Albania to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Tirana & Ministry of Environment, Forest and Water Administration & United Nations Development Programme- Albania, 2009. Albania’s Technology Needs Assessment, Republic of Albania, Tirana. Downside risks to the agriculture sector are significant under climate change projections while upside opportunities from the projected changes remain limited at present. The focus for interested stakeholders, therefore, should be on developing effective adaptation options for a range of farming and livestock systems across the three agro-ecological zones of Albania. As finances are limited, it is imperative that priority be given to those adaptation options which offer the greatest return on investment from an economic, social and environmental perspective. Implementation of these relevant, targeted and effective options can best help to improve the resilience of agricultural systems and rural livelihoods. For this reason it is essential that adaptation options are developed at both the national level and agro-ecological zone level to help ensure that regional and local communities have adaptation options that specifically address the climate change challenges faced by them. 11 Rural communities have continually adapted to changes in weather and seasons throughout history; however, the projections under climate change are expected to exceed the ability of farmers to adapt autonomously. Although there are many field-ready innovations that could immediately improve the resilience of agricultural systems in Albania, the lack of financial resources at the farm level remains a considerable barrier to adoption of these innovations. Significant investments will be required by the state and development partners to build the infrastructure, knowledge and policy systems that will support and develop an array of adaptation options which can increase the resilience of the agricultural sector into the future. IX. Impacts of Agriculture on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Agriculture and Land-Use Change Although Albania does not currently have any laws in place which specifically address climate change, the country is a signatory to the Kyoto Treaty and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) and has produced several key documents outlining current and projected Green House Gas Emissions (GHGs). Furthermore, Albania is a signatory to the Copenhagen Accord and the government has submitted a list of voluntary 16 emissions reduction measures (NAMAs). These NAMAs submitted by the government cover a number of sectors, including transport, energy, industry, waste, forestry and agriculture. An important role is played by agriculture in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, with many of the practices that have benefits for both productivity improvement and adaptation also having synergistic mitigation benefits (i.e., “win-win-win”). Globally, agriculture contributes 14% of total greenhouse gas emissions. When combined with land use change and forestry, agriculture accounts for 32.7% of total global 17 emissions – second only to the energy sector. As of 2000, the agricultural sector alone accounted for 35% of Albania’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – more than double that of the global average. Furthermore, when combined with the related land-use change & forestry sector, the GHG 18 emissions are the largest in the Albanian economy at 46%. Agriculture in Albania accounts for 77% of country’s methane emissions and 13 91% of its nitrous oxide emissions. The primary source of methane emissions is enteric fermentation of farm animals, which accounts for 95% of total emissions in Albania. The cattle sector is the primary producer of methane and contributes 72% of Albania’s total methane. Nitric fertilizers account for a majority of Albania’s nitrous oxide emissions. These fertilizers produce 85% of the country’s nitrous oxide emissions, owing in part to p oor land and manure management practices. To help mitigate agricultural emissions, six strategies were evaluated in Albania’s Second National Communication to assist with the prioritization of options for research, investment and implementation. These strategies are: Increase feed digestibility Reduce overgrazing pressure on marginal lands to improve quality Improve diet quality and nutrient balance Improve animal genetics and reproduction Increase nitrogen use efficiency by matching crop demand with nitrogen supply Improve livestock manure management 12 X. The Policy Context The Second National Communication of Albania, published in 2009, is the primary policy document that assesses the impact of climate change and outlines adaptation options to respond to projected future climate hazards. The Second National Communications outline climate projections for Albania to 2100 and undertakes a preliminary vulnerability assessment of sectors including agriculture, water resources and forestry. This assessment is linked with broad recommendations and potential adaptation options for each sector; however no rigorous evaluation or prioritization of the options is performed. The initial Greenhouse Gas Inventory for Albania is also included in the communication, with 1994 as its base year. Emissions from the agriculture sector are outlined in the inventory and potential mitigation measures are broadly discussed. Mitigation and adaptation options for sectors including agriculture are also outlined in the National Climate Change Action Plan, although options are not coupled with economic analysis to aid prioritization. The National Strategy for Socio-Economic Development was adopted by the Albanian government as a mechanism to develop and grow the economy in a more sustainable and inclusive way, while simultaneously reducing poverty. Embedded within this strategy is the National Energy Strategy that outlines and takes into consideration climate change and other environmental issues to develop energy resources in a less carbon intensive way; however agriculture and associated climate change impacts are not addressed. Climate Variability and Trends in Albania by the University of Polytechnics, Institute for Energy, Water and Environment. This report was prepared in 2008 and provides an assessment of recorded weather data and associated climate trends across Albania, especially for the period from 1961-90. Albania’s Technology Needs Assessment by the Albanian Ministry of Environment, Forest and Water Administration and the UNDP. This report was prepared in 2005 and provides an in-depth evaluation of the technological needs for both the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions across five sectors and adaptation options to climate change for the coastal zone, including agriculture. Inter-Sectoral Rural Development Strategy of Albania (ISRDSA) 2007-2013 outlines the priorities for rural development policy in the medium term. The strategy was prepared by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Protection and it focuses on strengthening agriculture, agro-food chains and rural communities though enhancing the competitiveness of the sector via various structural reforms. The strategy does not incorporate climate change into the structural reform context, hence underlining the need to mainstream climate change into the policy and decision-making environment. Albania - Strategic Policies for a More Competitive Agriculture Sector, 2007 is a World Bank report that outlines policy options and strategic challenges that face the agricultural sector of Albania. This report does not discuss the policy responses or challenges of climate change for the sector. This report does, however, provide a solid basis for future analysis that incorporates potential climate change exposure. South East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation (SEE/CCFAP-A) is a voluntary framework that was established in late 2008 under the auspices of the Regional Cooperation Council (RCC). Albania, along with a number of Balkan countries, is now a signatory to the action plan. The SEE/CCFAP-A outlines a framework for developing and implementing cost-effective multi-sectoral adaptation options that meet the short and long-term objectives of countries in the region. The agricultural and forestry sectors are included within the action plan, with a focus on information dissemination, training, and research. More broadly, the framework also emphasizes capacity building and linkages with the wider climate change agenda within 19 the region and with the UNFCCC. XII. The Institutional Context The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Water Administration is the national environmental authority and is also the Designated National Authority (DNA) on climate change and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to the UNFCCC for Albania. The role of the ministry is to draft and propose policies, strategies and action plans for the 13 20 protection, administration and sustainable use of the environment, forests, waters and fisheries of Albania. Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Protection (MoAFCP) is responsible for the formulation of policies related to the development of the rural sector and in particular providing support to improve farm competitiveness and associated access to credit, integrating domestic markets with international markets to develop trade, reducing barriers for 21 private investment in agriculture, and improving food safety systems for the protection of consumers. MoAFCP is also responsible for supporting research, development and extension in the agricultural sector through regional technology transfer centers and specialized research institutes. Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Water Administration (MoEFWA) drafts and proposes policies, strategies and action plans for the protection and administration of the environment, forests, waters and fisheries in Albania. MoEFWA works to implement relevant national policies, define priorities for environmental and forestry investments in Albania, develop national research programs and coordinate environmental protection-related activities with other ministries and local authorities. Faculty of Agriculture at the University of Tirana is a leading Albanian institution for agricultural education and research. To achieve research outcomes the faculty often works in collaboration with various governmental institutions to develop and implement research programs. User Associations and Industry Groups are primarily responsible for representing the interests and meeting the needs of different sectors of the agricultural community. A number of these organizations have been recipients of capacity building and resources from donor funded projects and are important channels for information dissemination and data collection at the producer level. These organizations include the Forest and Pasture User Associations (FPUA), the Water User Associations, and the Fisheries Association. Credit Unions and Investment Grant Organizations are important organizations that provide credit and financing in rural areas. However, demand for credit frequently exceeds supply resulting in decreased economic activity and reduced financial opportunity. Credit organizations include: Federation of Micro Credits, Union of Savings and Credit Associations, Fondacion Besa, and the Partnership for Micro Credit. Donor funded Investment Grant Organizations with revolving funds includes the Mountain Areas Development Agency and the Mountains Agency for Finance and Economy. 14 XII. Ways Forward This Country Note is just the First Step: Upcoming Activities in the Development of the Albanian Response to Climate Change and Agriculture In May 2009 an Awareness Raising and Consultation workshop on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Albanian Agricultural Systems was held in Tirana, Albania. During this event, the Climate Change and Agriculture Country Note was disseminated to stakeholders, which generated a groundswell of support and interest for further analytical work to reduce the vulnerability of Albanian agricultural systems to climate change. A leading figure in this support has been the Albanian Minister of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Protection (MoAFCP). The Minister expressed his appreciation for the Country Note - which was prepared in collaboration with the World Bank - and indicated the importance of addressing climate change in Albanian agricultural systems for both the current climate and projected future climate. The Minister acknowledged the impact climate change is having on Albanian agriculture via National Awareness Raising and adverse trends in temperature, particularly increased frequency and severity of Consultation Workshop, Tirana floods across the country. These thoughts were echoed by workshop participants and other stakeholders, including the Institute of Hydrometeorology, Albanian University of Agriculture, the Agricultural Technology Transfer Center and farmers. The Minister also expressed his strong commitment and interest in enhancing the Government’s ability to mainstream climate adaptation into agricultural policies, programs and investments by building on the initial steps already undertaken by the Albanian government and associated institutions. Towards this goal, he agreed that MAFCP would fully support, and work jointly with, the World Bank to develop the Albanian Response to Climate Change for Agriculture program. Broadly, this work involves rigorous analysis and economic modeling to assess both the impacts of climate change and potential adaptation measures for a range of farming, livestock and production systems. The analysis is currently being performed by expert staff from the international consulting firm Industrial Economics, Inc. (IEc), in close consultation with local experts across a range of organizations, under the direction of the World Bank. IEc is also delivering training and capacity building services to local experts and organizing sub-national consultation meetings with farmers, policymakers and researchers to raise awareness of the risks and opportunities posed by climate change on the agricultural sector. This work will culminate in the development of an Agriculture and Climate Change Impact Assessment & Menu of Adaptation Options that will highlight the physical, economic and social impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector and identify adaptation priorities for investments, capacity development and policy improvement. These options will be practical and operational, with a focus on “win-win-win” options that have benefits for adaptation, mitigation and the local economy. This analysis will be discussed at a high-level National Dissemination and Consensus Building Conference to be jointly hosted by MAFCP and the World Bank in April 2011. The conference will help build consensus on the way forward by identifying practical priorities for action. A Regional Knowledge Exchange Conference will follow, wherein Albanian experts can share their experiences and results while simultaneously learning from experts from other countries in the Europe and Central Asian Region. This forum will also explore opportunities for greater regional collaboration and assist with the establishment of regional communities of practice for experts working on agriculture and climate change issues. The Sustainable Development Department of the ECA Region at the World Bank is carrying out a regional, three- year program of analytical and advisory activities to better determine the potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in four pilot countries: Albania, FYR Macedonia, Moldova and Uzbekistan. Through the Regional Program on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in ECA Agricultural Systems, the World Bank is working with stakeholders to develop practical recommendations on actions these countries can take to increase the resiliency of their agricultural sectors to the impacts of climate change. The overall objective of the program is to enhance the ability of ECA countries to mainstream climate adaptation into agricultural policies, programs and investments. This will be achieved by raising awareness of the threat, analyzing potential impacts and adaptation responses and building capacity among country stakeholders with respect to climate change impact assessment and adaptation in the agricultural sector. 15 References 1 “Managing Uncertainty: Adapting to Climate Change in ECA Countries”, 2009, The Europe and Central Asia Region, The World Bank 2 The concept of the Country Notes is derived from the series of Country Notes developed for the LAC Region by S. Edmeades and W. Janssen et al., 2009, The World Bank 3 World Development Indicators, 2009, The World Bank 4 http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/data/factsheets/aquastat_fact_sheet_alb_en.pdf 5 Rohde, Andreas, Toru Konishi and Subramaniam Janakiram “Case Study Albania: Reforming the Irrigation and Domestic Water Supply and Sanitation Services to Benefit the Poor.” Word Bank 2004 6 http://www.organic-world.net/albania.html 7 Agraja, Luce. Assessing the Comparative Advantage of Wheat Produced in Albania. Cuvillier Verlag 8 Source: http://faostat.fao.org 9 The World Bank, 2009. ECA Databank. Washington DC. 10 http://www.fao.org/ag/AGP/AGPC/doc/counprof/Albania/albania.htm 11 Bruci, E. 2008. Climate Variability and Trends in Albania. University of Polytechnics – Institute for Energy, Water and Environment, Tirana. 12 Shundi, A. 2003. Country Pasture/Forage Resource Profiles – Albania, FAO - http://www.fao.org/ag/AGP/agpc/doc/Counprof/Albania/albania.htm 13 Ministry of Environment Forestry and Water Administration, 2009. Second National Communication on Climate Change, Albania, Tirana Second National Communication on Climate Change, Albania, Tirana 14 The World Bank, 2009. Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia, Washington DC 15 Iglesias, A. et al., 2007, Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector, AEA Energy & Environment, Didcot. 16 http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/application/pdf/albaniacphaccord.pdf 17 http://cait.wri.org/cait.php?page=sectors&url=form&pOpts=open&pHints=shut&year=2000&co2=1&ch4=1&n2o=1&pfc =1&hfc=1&sf6=1&lucf=1&update=Update&c1=115&c2=185&c3=501&c4=527&c5=500&c6=&c7=&c8 18 http://cait.wri.org/ 19 South East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation, November 2008. - http://www.rec.org/REC/Programs/REREP/docs/11th_meeting/executivesummary.pdf 20 Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Water Administration - http://www.moe.gov.al/cms_en/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogsection&id=33 21 http://www.ceinet.org/download/sef_2006/SEF06%20Session%202.5%20Gjana.pdf 22 The State of Food and Agriculture: Livestock in the Balance, FAO 2009 For more information please visit our website at www.worldbank.org/eca/climateandagriculture 16