ROUND 6 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING OCT 2020 Publication Date BACKGROUND In April 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), with support from the World Bank, launched the COVID- NIGERIA 19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (NLPS); a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,950 households to monitor the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic and other shocks. The first round (baseline) of the survey was conducted in April/May 2020, during which a federally mandated lockdown was in full effect. The government began lifting restrictions in June and by the time the sixth round was conducted between October 9- 24, 2020, there were minimal restrictions on movement within the country. This brief presents the findings from the sixth round of the Nigeria COVID-19 NLPS. The sixth round of the NLPS had two key innovations. The first innovation was to collect specific information on education for up to six school-aged household members (5-18 years). This allows for more detailed individual-level analysis of school- aged household members, making it possible to (1) verify the trends from previous rounds that were reported for all children collectively (rather than individually) and (2) examine differences in school attendance and engage- ment in learning activities across key individual characteristics such as sex and age. The second innovation was to ask households directly about their perceptions of and willingness to engage in testing and vaccinations for COVID-19. SUMMARY  School attendance in October 2020 was substantial- 29% reported attending school only in January/ ly lower than in January/February 2019. Among February 2019 but not in October 2020. household members aged 5-18 years, 59% were at-  Around 55% of school-aged household members tending school in October 2020 compared to 74% have been engaged in education or learning activities in January/February 2019. at some point since mid-March, meaning that 45% of  The main reason that school-aged household mem- school-aged household members have not engaged bers did not attend school in October 2020 – re- in any education or learning activities over this peri- ported for 57% of those who were not attending od. This emphasizes the importance of helping chil- school – was that schools were still closed due to dren catch up for the time they missed at school. the coronavirus restrictions.  Most respondents (90%) indicated that they would  Among household members who were school aged be willing to get tested for COVID-19 while 89% in both January/February 2019 and October 2020, were willing to be vaccinated against COVID-19 if a about 50% were attending school both in January/ vaccine is provided for free. February 2019 and in October 2020, while around EDUCATION SITUATION OF SCHOOL-AGED HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS (5-18 YEARS OLD) In October 2020, fewer school-aged household mem- than in January/February 2019, while the share of fe- bers were attending school compared to January/ male school-aged household members who attended February 2019. In October 2020, schools in some school was around 14 percentage points lower. The states were yet to reopen. The share of male school- drop in attendance was larger in urban areas aged household members who attended school was (25 percentage points lower) than in rural areas almost 17 percentage points lower in October 2020 (12 percentage points lower). https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 1 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING The main reason that school-aged members did not age group (15-18 years old) who were not attending attend school in October 2020 – reported for 57% of school reported that the main reason for non- those who were not attending school – was that attendance was that they were awaiting admission. This schools were still closed due to the coronavirus re- may reflect the fact that older school-aged individuals strictions. Yet of those who were not attending for this rely on further academic testing and administrative pro- reason, almost all (99.9%) are planning to attend school cedures before progressing between grades or switch- after their schools reopen. Additionally, around 27% of ing between schools, which in many cases were delayed those school-aged household members in the oldest by the COVID-19 crisis. Although school closure is the main reason why school that they are currently awaiting admission predomi- -aged household members were not attending school nantly come from the richest households (27% of those across all consumption quintiles, lack of money is the not attending), perhaps reflecting the better prospects remains an important reason among individuals from for higher levels of educational attainment for individu- the poorest households (16% of those not attending). als from richer households. Those school-aged household members who report https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 2 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL DYNAMICS OF SCHOOL ATTENDANCE In order to track individual-level dynamics of attend- in October 2020. Of those who were attending school ance, the charts below examine attendance for a sam- in January/February 2019 but not in October 2020, ple of household members that were school-aged in around 63% (19% of the whole sample) reported that January/February 2019 and October 2020 (roughly 7- closure of schools was the main reason for their non- 18 years old in October 2020). Of this sample, about attendance and 25% (7% of the whole sample) reported 50% were attending school both in January/February that the main reason was that they were awaiting ad- 2019 and in October 2020, while around 29% reported mission. attending school only in January/February 2019 but not *restricted to those that are included in both surveys, and were 7-18 years old (N=3,203) in October 2020 There were some important gender differences in how members (9%). Yet a smaller share of female school- school attendance evolved between January/February aged household members (27%) than male school-aged 2019 and October 2020. A larger share of female household members (31%) were attending in January/ school-aged household members (12%) were not at- February 2019 but were no longer attending in Octo- tending in both January/February 2019 and October ber 2020. 2020 compared with male school-aged household https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 3 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING There were also large differences in the evolution of attended school in January/February 2019 but not in school attendance across different age groups. The old- October 2020. This may, once again, reflect the effect est age group (those aged 15-18 years) were the most that the COVID-19 crisis is having on the procedures likely to not be attending in both January/February needed to progress through higher grades. Yet it may 2019 and October 2020 (19% of this age group). The also simply be that many older school-aged members oldest age group were also more likely to have stopped passed the 9 years of mandatory schooling required in attending over this period, with 34% of them having Nigeria between 2019 and 2020. *restricted to those that are included in both surveys, and were 7-18 years old (N=3,203) in October 2020 *restricted to those that are included in both surveys, and were 7-18 years old (N=3,203) in October 2020 ENGAGEMENT IN LEARNING ACTIVITIES Around 55% of school-aged household members have to 53% of males), although the share was consistent been engaged in education or learning activities at across age groups. School-aged household members in some point since mid-March, meaning that 45% of urban areas and in the richest consumption quintiles school-aged household members have not engaged in are more likely to have participated in learning activities any education or learning activities over this period. than school-aged household members in rural areas This emphasizes the importance of helping children and in the lowest consumption quintiles, which could catch up for the time they missed at school. School- widen preexisting education gaps between the rich and aged female members were slightly more likely to have the poor. been engaged in any learning activities (57% compared https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 4 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING VACCINATION AND TESTING The vast majority of respondents reported that they ents in urban areas are more skeptical towards a possi- were willing to get tested for and vaccinated against ble vaccine against the COVID-19 virus: 14% of urban COVID-19, if such services were free. Almost 90% of respondents would not agree to be vaccinated (even at respondents answered “Yes” when asked “If you could no cost) compared to 8% in rural areas. Out of those get tested for free for the COVID-19 virus, would you who would not agree to be vaccinated, 32% indicate be willing to get tested?”. Additionally, 89% of respond- that the main reason is because they do not think it ents answered “Yes” when asked “If an approved vac- would be safe, and 31% say they do not consider them- cine to prevent coronavirus was available right now at selves to be sufficiently at risk of contracting COVID- no cost, would you agree to be vaccinated?”. Respond- 19. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 5 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME While the share of respondents who were working the start of the COVID-19 crisis, indicating that busi- remained stable in October 2020 (at 87% of respond- nesses that may have, at some point, resumed opera- ents), the sixth round of the NLPS provides further tions were not viable enough to continue. If household evidence that income remains precarious for many income continues to be precarious, this may limit the households. Of the 84% of households that operated a investments households are able to make in education non-farm enterprise at any point in 2020, around 22% and health services for their members, even if schools were not operating their businesses in October 2020. fully reopen and the government supports more testing The vast majority of these non-farm enterprises that and vaccination. are currently closed had been open at some point since Data Notes: The Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 Sixth Round was implemented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in October 2020. This survey is part of a World Bank global effort to support countries in their data collection efforts to monitor the impacts of COVID-19. World Bank teams from the Development Data Group and the Poverty and Equity Global Practice provided technical support. This survey is the sixth of a planned 12 rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS of households in Nigeria. 1,839 households from the baseline were contacted and 1,762 households, fully interviewed. These same households will be contacted in subsequent rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS. The data are representative at the national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non-response and under coverage. For further details on the data, visit http://www.worldbank.org/lsms-covid19 and https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/brief/monitoring-covid-19-impact-on- nigerian-households For further details on COVID-19 in Nigeria, visit https://nigeria-coronavirus-response-data-hub-nbs-nigeria.hub.arcgis.com/ For details on the survey, contact Biyi Fafunmi (biyifafunmi@nigerianstat.gov.ng) and Tunde Adebisi (tundeadebisi@nigerianstat.gov.ng) 6