38139 Policy Note 1 November 2006 Improving the Labor Supply of the PoorestWorkers in Sub-Saharan Africa1 Labor supply in Sub-Saharan Africa, like many eco- data on countries that are covered by labor force nomic and social issues, is often discussed as though surveys and population censuses are often based on the entire subcontinent faced essentially similar estimates and projections that rely on guesstimates overwhelming and intractable problems. This pes- about population dynamics and the distribution of simistic and overgeneralized perspective has almost the labor force by sector, occupation, and status. In no policy relevance. While overly broad policy rec- addition, there is remarkably little good quality in- ommendations for the labor market are dangerous, formation to enable accurate monitoring of national there are certain similarities in the characteristics HIV prevalence rates. The intersection of inadequate of the most disadvantaged labor market entrants in HIV data collection and widespread shortcomings many Sub-Saharan African economies. The aim of in broader demographic data limits the ability of the analysis is to begin to isolate the policies that policymakers to understand and respond to labor might be most relevant for these disadvantaged supply issues. entrants, if donors and governments wish to reallo- cate resources to improve prospects for the poorest Nonetheless, it has been possible to piece together a Africans. coherent analytical story about the quantity dimen- sion of labor supply in Sub-Saharan Africa. The over- There are several important impediments to the riding theme that emerges is the striking inequalities entry of poor people into the forms of wage employ- in labor supply characteristics, both between coun- ment on which they are most dependent. Some of tries and, in some ways even more important, within these impediments can be lowered by appropriate countries. investments in transport, communications, and money transmission facilities. Others, including The sample of countries analyzed accounts for about gender discrimination and the political and institu- 87 percent of the estimated population of Sub-Saha- tional factors reducing the bargaining power of wage ran Africa. Population size and projected population workers, will be overcome only by less familiar pol- growth rates vary enormously. The age structure of icy initiatives, including legislation and investment the population, and so the proportion of the popu- to protect the workplace rights of "illegal" migrants lation of working age, also vary significantly. In 2000 and expenditures to improve workers' organizational the estimated median age varied from 15.1 years in capacity. Less controversially, targeted interventions Uganda to 22.6 years in South Africa. While only 12 are needed that increase both effective demand for percent of Uganda's population was urban in 2003, rural schooling and its supply. Data on labor supply--findings and 1This note is based on a research paper, Unequal Pros- shortcomings pects: Disparities in the Quantity and Quality of Labor Sup- ply in Sub-Saharan Africa, by John Sender, University of A large number of countries in the region have no London, School of Oriental and African Studies, Center reliable information on labor supply. Moreover, the for Development Policy Research, January 2005. 1 62 percent of Mauritania's was; and the urban popu- effect of the relatively slow decline in fertility rates in lation is projected to grow more rapidly in some Sub-Saharan Africa. countries (Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and Tanza- nia) than in others (Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Grave inequalities affect the quality of Zambia). labor supplies HIV/AIDS will continue to have a profound, though Underpinning prospects for the quality of the labor varying, effect on many African countries. Young supply in Sub-Saharan Africa are extraordinary in- women are estimated to be twice as likely as young equalities in life expectancy, education, and health. men to be living with HIV/AIDS throughout Sub- These inequalities have direct implications for Saharan Africa, and three times as likely in South policy. Inequalities in the distribution of education, Africa. Especially where HIV prevalence is very high, health, and other services within and across coun- the implications are complex not just for the age tries mean that the labor supplies in some regions composition of the female labor force but also for and some households have very different capacities the quantity and quality of labor supplies across to work productively. Differences in life expectancy generations. Meanwhile, it is difficult with available and in the gender gap in life expectancy across coun- data to accurately assess and predict the impact of tries are great. The range of female life expectancy, HIV/AIDS on child labor supplies. It is also difficult already striking, is projected to increase so that, for to extract this impact from the varying "background" example, it is likely to be some 33 years longer in child mortality rates for children without HIV/AIDS. Ghana than in Swaziland by 2015. There are also dramatic differences across countries The differential impact of HIV/AIDS obviously part- in the proportion and absolute numbers of child or- ly accounts for this trend, but other factors also help phans. In most Sub-Saharan African countries a high to explain it. Female illiteracy, which is particularly proportion (about half) of all orphans are ages 10­ high in countries like Ethiopia, Mauritania, Mozam- 14. Orphaned children, on average, live in poorer bique, and Senegal, is an important constraint on households than other children and are more likely the quality of the future labor supply, given the as- to live in households headed by women or less well sociation of female illiteracy with high risks of child educated men. Orphans living in poor households undernutrition, illness, and inadequate schooling. are likely to receive significantly less education than Levels of undernutrition, affecting health, schooling, other children. When they enter the labor market, and later productivity, also vary across countries. In their lack of basic literacy and numeracy will con- Ethiopia more than half of children under five suffer fine them to poorly remunerated segments of the from stunting, compared with a quarter or less in market. Currently, about 90 percent of orphans are Ghana, Senegal, and South Africa. And while under- of school-going age, and there is a strong case for ur- five mortality rates differ in Sub-Saharan African gent policy initiatives aimed at keeping all orphans, countries, some countries have sharply reduced this particularly those living in the poorest households, rate in recent years while others have experienced in school. increases, suggesting that there is room for policy to make a difference. The proportion of children who work as a percent- age of the age cohort seems to vary considerably across countries, which suggests some scope for Labor mobility--constraints and government policies to reduce the incidence of child labor. The proportion of young people in the opportunities for poverty reduction working age population of all Sub-Saharan African Constraints on labor mobility restrict the growth of countries is relatively high compared with that in labor productivity and efforts to reduce poverty. The other developing regions. Education policies that circulation of people within and between African focus on reducing primary school dropout rates and countries as well as between Africa and the rest of increasing the transition from lower to higher levels the world is massive and uneven. Population move- of education may be effective in counteracting the ments can fluctuate quite suddenly, as in the surge 2 in migration within and from Darfur in Sudan, and of mobility and labor market participation. Further, also change more gradually through shifting spatial for those left behind the condition of the infra- patterns of mobility and changes in the characteris- structure, especially in rural areas, raises the costs of tics of movement--who is moving, from where to education, health care, access to savings institutions, where, what for, and how. There is little knowledge and access to opportunities for migration. about the quantitative dimensions of overall labor force circulation, and the labor market implications There are many pressures on political leaders to of this population circulation are especially poorly impose further barriers to mobility. These are com- understood. monly driven by ideological anxieties about popula- tion movements, fears about the effects on sending There is a tension between this immense circula- communities of outmigration or brain drain, and tion of people and the weak provision of transport fears of people in host populations about a rising infrastructure. This means that the conditions and tide of migrants unfairly competing with local work- costs of mobility can be very high and that migra- ers. On both efficiency and equity grounds there tion is often undertaken only in extreme stress. It should ideally be no barriers designed to restrict also means that despite the remarkable mobility of population movement within Sub-Saharan Africa or Africans, there are gaps in the links between people from Africa to the rest of the world. Administrative and productive opportunities in many parts of the impediments are expensive to run and ineffective. continent. Another implication is that huge mobility Those with the wherewithal generally succeed in is combined with excess stability. For example, col- migrating, so that adding legal barriers to those that lective violence can both project people into acceler- already exist is likely only to reinforce inequalities in ated or unwanted mobility and reinforce isolation in the labor force and to deepen poverty. areas with low productive potential. Two of the most important mechanisms regulating flows of people and this tension between mobility Where to focus policy attention and weak infrastructure, information, and commu- The main influences on labor quality are the capaci- nication are coercion and social differentiation. Vio- ties to educate and improve the health and skills of lence includes not only large-scale political violence the next generation of workers. Expenditures and but also the coercive mechanisms that lie behind incentives need to be shifted to encourage higher much human trafficking, forging important links education and more effective recruitment of teachers between population mobility and labor force par- to poor rural areas. Other policy interventions may ticipation. There are also other patterns of coerced also improve the poorest children's access to edu- and so-called voluntary migration, motivated and cation: payments to mothers conditional on their mediated by factors such as divorce, infrastructure children's school attendance, providing free school links, information networks, and semi-institutional- meals for poor children and orphans, and abolish- ized practices of corvée labor. Economic models of ing uniforms and user fees. individuals making rational "choices" about migra- tion destinations have not proved very effective for Donor and government spending also needs to analyzing empirical migration data in Sub-Saharan be redirected to achieve a higher density of health Africa. The other main mechanism regulating popu- workers. Health delivery systems need to focus more lation flows is social differentiation. Most Africans on rural, preventive facilities staffed by community who migrate voluntarily are able to do so because nurses and other auxiliary health workers (who they have advantages compared with others: in are less likely to emigrate than more professionally wealth, knowledge, status, and contacts. trained health workers) and less on curative facilities in relatively well off areas. The extreme unevenness of infrastructure provision as well as its generally poor provision throughout There is no evidence that technical and vocational much of Sub-Saharan Africa reinforce the signifi- education, training, and skills programs have been cance of these two mechanisms in shaping patterns effective in enhancing basic labor market skills. 3 Their objectives may be more effectively and pro- scope for violent and exploitative intermediaries gressively met by investing in basic literacy and nu- to fill the gap in aiding mobility. There is also an meracy and by enhancing all workers' capacities to urgent need to develop new policies and new types negotiate with employers and to press for improved of temporary immigrant worker programs that more in-service training. actively promote the interests of migrant workers by defining and enforcing certain core rights of migrant Policies need to prioritize the bottom 20 percent workers. of each country's rural population, which can be identified using robust and readily available asset or Improving the conditions affecting labor supply welfare indicators. Designing appropriate, country- among people in the poorest 20 percent of the specific policies will also require improved survey population means encouraging growth in sectors data and methods. that are intensive in the use of unskilled, particularly female, labor. It is also important to increase the For integrating migrants into labor markets, the aim organizational and bargaining capacity of workers in of policy should be to improve communications these and other sectors, because there is no auto- and transport infrastructure dramatically and to en- matic mechanism smoothly linking employment courage institutional and policy reforms that recog- expansion to poverty reduction. Concentrating on nize and record migrant laborers as a foundation for those sectors (and geographic areas) will make it protecting them from abusive working relationships. easier, with scarce resources and fiscal constraints, to Such an approach would facilitate the circulation make progress with the other policy recommenda- of remittance money within families; make more tions, including the construction and maintenance people easier to reach with vaccination programs, of health facilities, the recruitment and motivation HIV/AIDS testing and prevention campaigns, and of primary school teachers, and the improvement of other health and education services; and reduce the transport and communication infrastructure. This note was commissioned by the World Bank for the project, Job Creation, Core Labor Standards, and Poverty Reduction in Africa. The project was generously funded by Germany's Federal Ministry for Economic Co-operation and Development (BMZ) and benefited greatly from the participation of the BMZ as well as the International Labour Organization on its Steering Committee. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this publication are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organiza- tions or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. 4