The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Issue | 27 September 2018 This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party. Job number 252746 Ove Arup & Partners International Ltd 13 Fitzroy Street London W1T 4BQ United Kingdom www.arup.com Document Verification Job title Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Job number Assessment 252746 Document title Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard File reference and Risk Assessment Document ref Revision Date Filename 20171110-REP-01A_DraftFinal_Makeni.docx Draft 1 09 May Filename 20180509-Final_Rep_Makeni_City.docx 2018 Description Incorporating feedback from Mission #4 and World Bank. 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Revision Date Filename 20180926-DOC-05A_V3of5_Makeni.docx Issue 27 Sep Description 2018 Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name ALM, GC, PR, JB Anna Morley Matthew Free Signature Filename Description Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Signature Filename Description Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Signature Filename Description Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Signature Issue Document Verification with Document | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 2 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Contents Page Summary of Report 10 1 Introduction 42 1.1 Project background 42 1.2 Outline of this Report 43 1.3 Maps and data 44 1.4 Limitations to this report 45 2 Makeni: City Profile and Context 47 2.1 Introduction 47 2.2 Geographic setting of Makeni 47 2.3 Urbanization in Makeni 49 2.4 Socio-economics in Makeni 52 2.5 Governance in Makeni 52 2.6 Resilience challenges in Makeni 53 3 Exposure and Vulnerability in Makeni 57 3.1 Introduction 57 3.2 Population 57 3.3 Buildings 57 3.4 Roads 58 3.5 Vulnerability 58 4 Flood Hazard and Risk in Makeni 62 4.1 Introduction 62 4.2 Overview of qualitative assessment 62 4.3 Overview of quantitative assessment 62 5 Landslide Hazard and Risk in Makeni 77 5.1 Introduction 77 5.2 Overview of qualitative assessment 77 6 Identification of Areas at Highest Risk 81 6.1 Introduction 81 6.2 Urban development in flood hazard zones 81 7 Opportunities for DRR/DRM in Makeni 88 7.1 Introduction 88 7.2 Sendai Framework 88 7.3 General DRR Approaches for Makeni 89 | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 1 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 8 Hazard and Catchment Specific DRR/DRM Measures 105 8.1 Introduction 105 8.2 Flood Hazard Specific DRR/DRM Measures in Makeni 105 8.3 Flood DRR/DRM recommendations by catchment for Makeni 117 9 Recommendations 120 9.1 Recommendations for DRR/DRM Priorities 120 9.2 Recommendations from Stakeholders 121 9.3 Recommendations for Hazard and Risk Research and Development for Makeni 122 9.4 Recommendations for Management of Rainfall Run-off in Communities 123 9.5 Call for Action 123 10 References 125 Tables Table 1 – High-hazard hotspots in Makeni Table 2 – Urban development within Hazard Zones Table 3 – Quantitative flood risk to Makeni Table 4 – Appropriate DRR/DRM measures for Makeni Table 5 – Natural hazard and risk assessment scope in Freetown, Makeni and Bo Table 6 – Approximate urbanised area and built environment expansion rate in Makeni Table 7 – Modelled distribution of building typology in Makeni Table 8 - Flood risk (Makeni) Table 9 - Return period flood losses (Makeni) Table 10 – Urban development within flood hazard zones Table 11 – DRR/DRM for Makeni within the context of the Sendai Framework. Table 12 – Appropriate DRR/DRM measures for Makeni Table 13 – Capital and operational costs for Option 1 – Hazard and Risk Communication Table 14 – Risk reduction benefits from Option 1 – Hazard and Risk Communication Table 15 – Cost-Benefit Results for Option 1 – Hazard and Risk Communication Table 16 – Capital and operational costs for Option 2 – Construction of engineered culverts and clearing waste from existing channels Table 17 – Risk reduction benefits from Option 2 – Construction of engineered culverts and clearing waste from existing channels Table 18 – Cost-Benefit Results for Option 2 – Construction of engineered culverts and clearing waste from existing channels | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 2 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Table 19 – Summary of Cost-Benefit Results for Makeni Figures Figure 1 – Overview of the key stages in this project. Figure 2 – The relatively flat, low relief of Makeni city and surrounding areas, northern province Sierra Leone. Grey lines and stippling indicates the extent of urban roads and the urban area, thicker brown lines are the ward boundaries, thick yellow lines the main highways and thick blue lines are main rivers. Figure 3 – Google Earth satellite image from 2016 showing the river that flows north to south through the city centre. The natural floodplain of the stream is green and areas of the floodplain are used for farming (indicated by the square plots of land). Figure 4 – An example of sand mining and waste dumping within the natural shallow river channel at a site close to University of Makeni. Figure 5 – Overview of the exposure gridding process: A. Buildings digitised to approximate outline in OpenStreetMap and downloaded into GIS; B. Building location, value and typology are gridded to a 30m regularly spaced grid; and C. This grid is used to facilitate hazard and risk calculations. Light to dark on grid (B. and C.) indicates increasing building density. Field of view is approximately 700m across. Figure 6 – An overview of the city from Wusum Hill, showing the typical building types of Makeni city, single-storey, masonry houses. Figure 7 –Schematic illustration of a typical river catchment in Makeni and proposed flood hazard DRR/DRM options for Makeni. Illustrations of measures adapted from the Sustainable Urban Drainage Manual (Woods-Ballard et al., 2007). Figure 8 – Murals educating communities about Ebola, an example of effective hazard and risk communication in Freetown. Figure 9 – Diagram extracted from the World Bank report “Learning from Mega disasters – Lessons from the Great East Japan Earthquake”. Figure 10 – Geological map of Sierra Leone showing the geology of Makeni (circled black), after Rollinson (2016). Figure 11 – Satellite images in south and west Makeni in (a) Year 2002 and (b) Year 2016. Figure 12 – Example of quantitative flood hazard data viewed in a GIS (river and surface water flooding, 20-year return flood). Area shown is in central Makeni (see inset map for approximate location). Light blue indicates lower floodwater depth and dark blue indicates greater floodwater depth. Building polygons and road polylines are from the exposure dataset developed as part of this study and derived from OpenStreetMap. Field of view is approximately 1.5km across and oriented north. Figure 13 – Example of quantitative flood hazard data viewed in a GIS (river and surface water flooding, 1500-year return flood). Area shown is in central Makeni (see inset map for approximate location). Ligh t blue indicates lower floodwater depth and dark blue indicates greater | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 3 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment floodwater depth. Building polygons and road polylines are from the exposure dataset developed as part of this study and derived from OpenStreetMap. Field of view is approximately 1.5km across and oriented north. Figure 14 – Loss exceedance curve (flooding, number of people affected) for Makeni (also showing Freetown and Bo for comparison). Figure 15 – Loss exceedance curve (flooding, number of fatalities) for Makeni (also showing Freetown and Bo for comparison). Figure 16 – Loss exceedance curve (flooding, direct loss to all buildings) for Makeni (also showing Freetown and Bo for comparison). Figure 17 – Example of qualitative landslide hazard data viewed in a GIS. Area shown is the east of Wusum Hill (see inset map for approximate location). Light pink indicates low qualitative landslide hazard and darker pink indicates high qualitative landslide hazard. Building polygons and road polylines are from the exposure dataset developed as part of this study and derived from OpenStreetMap. Field of view is approximately 1.5km across and oriented north. Figure 18 – Schematic illustration of a typical river catchment in Makeni and proposed flood hazard DRR/DRM measures for Makeni. Illustrations of measures adapted from the Sustainable Urban Drainage Manual (Woods-Ballard et al., 2007). Figure 19 – The MoSSaiC community based drainage system to reduce flooding and landslide hazard and risk (World Bank Project Insights 78723 Issue #12). Figure 20 – Land readjustment can be an alternative to high-rise construction for densification of safer areas through spot zoning (diagram from https://unhabitat.org/books/remaking-the-urban-mosaic- participatory-and-inclusive-land-readjustment/ ) Appendices Appendix A Cost Benefit Analysis Appendix B Natural Hazard and Risk Maps for Makeni | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 4 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Acknowledgements The Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment would not have been possible without the dedication and support of different partners and stakeholders at national and local levels, who contributed both time and expertise. The assessment was prepared by the Project Team, which consisted of experts from Arup (as the lead organisation), the British Geological Survey (BGS), JBA flood risk consultancy, and the Integrated Geo-information and Environmental Management Services (INTEGEMS) consultancy. Arup wishes to extend great thanks to each member organisation and individual of the Project Team. The dedication, creativity, technical capacity and enthusiasm of the team members made the completion of this project to the best possible quality and practical use possible. The assessment was carried out in partnership with the World Bank, the Government of Sierra Leone, ministries, City and District Councils, and the community. The financial support for this assessment was provided by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the European Union, in the framework of the Africa Caribbean Pacific–European Union Natural Disaster Risk Reduction (ACP–EU NDRR) Program, managed by GFDRR. Arup wishes to acknowledge the World Bank Task Team Leader for this project, Dr. Isabelle Celine Kane, for her commitment, vision, critical feedback, and leadership throughout this project. We would also like to thank a number of other key World Bank staff and consultants for their critical feedback, direction and support in completing this project, including: Deepali Tewari, Sokhna BA, Swati Sachdeva, Robert Reid, and Megha Mukim. We thank Mr. Parminder P. S. Brar, former Country Manager, World Bank Group, for his commitment to the project and in-country support. In addition we thank Gayle Martin, Country Manager and Sheikh Sesay, Operations Officer. Arup would like to extend its appreciation and acknowledge the numerous ministries and organizations for their assistance in granting access to information, providing support to the report and for their availability for discussions during the assessment. The Office of National Security (ONS) played a critical role in co- ordinating in-country meetings and workshops with members of the ministries and councils. We thank Mr. Ismail Sheriff Tarashid Tarawali, National Security Coordinator, Mr. John Vandy Rodgers and Mr Nabie Kamara, and many other senior officials from all participating ministries for their immense contribution to the process. In particular, we would also like to acknowledge the mayor of Makeni city, Sunkari Kabba-Kamara, for her engagement, commitment and support to this project, and to the local stakeholders and community members we met during our time in the city who shared important knowledge and feedback. During the course of this project, the Regent-Lumley flood and landslide disaster occurred on August 14th 2017 in Freetown. Subsequently, the Project Team spent two weeks in country collaborating with the World Bank and other government representatives and numerous experts from UN agencies and development partners to complete a Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA). Arup would | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 5 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment like to acknowledge and thank the extreme effort and quality contributions from all those involved in this mission, as acknowledged in the official World Bank DaLA Report published following the Disaster1. To all the contributors, the team expresses its deepest gratitude and appreciation, especially to the local communities and affected populations, who experience annual flooding during the wet season, and who experienced the devastating effects of the August 14th Disaster. This report would not have been possible without their trust and engagement. 1 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/523671510297364577/Sierra-Leone-Rapid-damage- and-loss-assessment-of-August-14th-2017-landslides-and-floods-in-the-western-area | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 6 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Abbreviations and Acronyms AAL Average annual loss ALARP As low as reasonably possible (or practicable) B/C Benefit cost ratio BGS British Geological Survey CIDMEWS Climate Information, Disaster Management, and Early Warning System DaLA Damage and Loss Assessment DR Discount rate EU European Union EPA Environmental Protection Agency FCC Freetown City Council GDP Gross Domestic Product GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GVWC Guma Valley Water Company INTEGEMS Integrated Geo-information and Environmental Management Services IRR Internal rate of return JBA JBA Consulting is part of the JBA Group, an environmental, engineering and risk group. km Kilometres MCC Makeni city council m a.s.l. Metres above sea level mm Millimetre No. Number MoWR Ministry of Water Resources NGO Nongovernmental organization NMA Nationals Minerals Agency NPAA National Protected Area Authority NPV Net present value ONS Office of National Security | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 7 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment OSM OpenStreetMap SLL Sierra Leone Leone (currency) SLPP Sierra Leone Peoples Party SuDS Sustainable Urban Drainage UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund UNOPS United Nations Office for Project Services USD United States Dollar VSL Value of statistical life WASH Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 8 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 9 © 2018 THE CRAZY TOURIST The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Summary of Report This report provides a summary of the results from a natural hazard and risk assessment undertaken for the city of Makeni in Sierra Leone. The key stages of the project are outlined in Figure 1. The report provides guidance to the Government of Sierra Leone and other key stakeholders to prioritise a range of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and disaster risk management (DRM) options that will save lives, reduce the potential for damage to critical buildings and infrastructure, and reduce the potential economic losses caused by flooding and other hazards. Figure 1 – Overview of the key stages in this project. Project Reports Five report volumes have been prepared for this project including: • Volume 1 – Methodology and Summary of Results for all cities. • Volume 2 – Freetown City Hazard and Risk Assessment Hazard • Volume 3 – Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Hazard • Volume 4 – Bo City Hazard and Risk Assessment Hazard • Volume 5 – Map Volume, containing all maps for all cities in A3 page size format. Volumes 2, 3 and 4 should be read in combination with Volumes 1 and 5. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 10 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Project Data This project has produced a series of maps that show where the high-hazard and high-risk areas are in Makeni. These maps (and tables) also provide quantitative numbers in terms of, for example, the modelled depth of floodwaters, the number of fatalities, people affected, and damage to buildings in USD$ that can result from flooding. The maps presented in this report have been reduced in size to fit on an A4 page to provide an example of the type of data available from this project. The full series of A3 page size maps are provided separately in Volume 5 of this report. All data (as shown on the maps) are digital and can be viewed at different scales and interrogated interactively using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. All data are open source, freely available, and will be available for download. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 11 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 1 Hazard Natural hazards are “natural processes or phenomena that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage” (UNISDR, 2017). Flooding in Makeni Makeni is 140km east of Freetown, in the northern province of Sierra Leone (Figure 2). The city has mostly been built on relatively low-relief, flat-lying ground, with some development starting to encroach upon the slopes of the Wusum and Mene Hills, which are located to the NNW and SSW of the city respectively (Figure 2). These hills reach around 100m above the surrounding plains. There are two main natural watercourses in the city (Figure 2). Both watercourses have broad natural floodplains (Figure 3). The river channels and their floodplains are zones of natural, medium and high flood hazard. The natural flood hazard in these areas is compounded by man-made issues including sand mining within channels (e.g. Figure 4) and the blockage of natural and man-made drainage channels by sediment and solid waste. Close to the Wusum and Mene Hills, where there is relatively higher topographic relief and steep rock slopes landslide hazard is also a potential issue to be considered in the future if urban development extends into the hills. However, flooding is the dominant natural hazard for Makeni. Table 1 – High-hazard hotspots in Makeni High Hazard Hazard Hotspot Area, Makeni Areas of medium to high flood hazard are associated with networks of inland watercourses in the study area. There are two major watercourses extending through Makeni: one to the east of the city, and one flowing through the city centre. Flooding Areas with a medium to high risk of flooding are located along the banks where the major watercourses intersect densely urbanised areas such as Robani and Makama to the southwest. Landslide hazard is generally low, however is slightly higher adjacent to Landsliding overhanging rock blocks near Wusum and Mene Hills. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 12 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Figure 2 – The relatively flat, low relief of Makeni city and surrounding areas, northern province Sierra Leone. Grey lines and stippling indicates the extent of urban roads and the urban area, thicker brown lines are the ward boundaries, thick yellow lines the main highways and thick blue lines are main rivers. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 13 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Figure 3 – Google Earth satellite image from 2016 showing the river that flows north to south through the city centre. The natural floodplain of the stream is green and areas of the floodplain are used for farming (indicated by the square plots of land). Figure 4 – An example of sand mining and waste dumping within the natural shallow river channel at a site close to University of Makeni. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 14 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Patterns of High Hazard • Surface and river water flooding: the natural river channels, valleys and broad low-lying near coastal areas of the city have been highlighted as high flood hazard zones (Map MK-0009, Page 16). • Landsliding: (Map MK-0006, Page 17) | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 15 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 16 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 17 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Hazard Zones to Inform Urban Planning Map MK-0018 (Page 19) shows the hazard zones for Makeni, which are defined by the modelled extent of flood hazard. The current, i.e. present day, hazard zones are shown in dark pink, the lighter pink areas show the extent of the Combined Hazard Zones in the near future (year 2050) accounting for climate change. This map has two key functions for decision makers: • The map indicates the areas of the city at risk from natural hazards currently. These maps can help to inform decision makers where further development should be discouraged, unless appropriate planning and engineering procedures are in place. It also identifies the areas where public awareness with regard to natural hazard and risk should be focussed. • The map indicates that, in the near future (2050), a greater extent of the city will be within hazard zones due to the impact of climate change. This needs to be taken into consideration for urban planning, development and zoning for the city. It would be sensible therefore to increase the density of future urban development in areas of lower hazard and to minimise development in areas of the city where the hazard is highest. It is understood that a wider range of issues need to be taken into consideration by decision makers when planning urban development. This report only provides recommendations related to natural hazard and risk specifically for Makeni related to flooding, and to a lesser extent, landsliding. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 18 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 19 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 2 Exposure “The situation of people, infrastructure, housing, production capacities and other tangible human assets...” (UNISDR, 2017). Makeni is the largest city in the northern province of Sierra Leone, with a population of over 100,000 people (based on the 2015 census). It is the major administrative and economic centre for the Northern Province, the hometown of Ernest Bai Koroma, the former President of Sierra Leone, and is home to the University of Makeni, the largest private university in Sierra Leone. People, Buildings and Infrastructure in Makeni This project has generated a digital exposure model for Makeni. The model provides a spatial inventory of population, buildings (including the estimated building usage categories), and roads aggregated to a 30m x 30m grid (Figure 5). The grid scale of the exposure model is appropriate to assess city-wide hazard and risk. Figure 5 – Overview of the exposure gridding process: A. Buildings digitised to approximate outline in OpenStreetMap and downloaded into GIS; B. Building location, value and typology are gridded to a 30m regularly spaced grid; and C. This grid is used to facilitate hazard and risk calculations. Light to dark on grid (B. and C.) indicates increasing building density. Field of view is approximately 700m across. Map MK-0003, Page 21, shows the built environment density of Makeni modelled by this project. Darker grey areas indicate parts of the city where the building density is greater. Map MK-0002 (Page 22) shows how the urban boundary of Makeni has grown over time between 2003 to 2017. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 20 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 21 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 22 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Patterns of Exposure This study has provided, for the first time, digital, spatially accurate datasets at city-scale documenting the locations and lengths of the sealed and unsealed roads in Makeni city, and the estimated number of individual buildings, 17,900. Additionally, this study has provided the estimated number of buildings in different usage categories and the estimated total value in USD$ of these buildings. The typical building type in Makeni is single-storey masonry building (e.g. Figure 6). Map MK0029 (Page 24) shows the modelled population distribution produced by this project. This population distribution is based on the distribution of the built environment, and indicates the densest population and building density in the central part of Makeni. Population and building distribution has also expanded, particularly out to the west in recent years (Map MK-0002, Page 22), along the major road infrastructure routes. Figure 6 – An overview of the city from Wusum Hill, showing the typical building types of Makeni city, single-storey, masonry houses. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 23 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 24 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Existing Development in Hazard Zones A major problem with the rapid population growth and unplanned urban development in Makeni is that people now live in areas that are subject to natural hazards, particularly flooding, and can be impacted on a regular basis. The hazard and exposure data have been overlaid and used to identify where existing development coincides with the current (dark pink) and future 2050 (lighter pink) Hazard Zones across Makeni (Map MK-0019, Page 26). The Hazard Zones will be larger by 2050 due to climate change causing more flooding. Decision makers can use Map MK-0018 and Map MK-0019 in combination to inform urban zoning plans for the city. These zoning plans should take into account the location and distribution of the high-hazard zones. Lower-hazard areas can potentially be used to accommodate more of the existing population living in high-hazard areas and be used to accommodate future population growth. Table 2 – Urban development within Hazard Zones Number within current Hazard Number within 2050 Hazard Zone Zone* Population ~13,000 ~19,000 Buildings ~1,500 ~2,000 *Based on current model for population and buildings. The hazard models account for climate change to 2050. Does not consider expected population and building count increase to 2050. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 25 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 26 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 3 Vulnerability “The conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets or systems to the impacts of hazards.” (UNISDR, 2017). The fragility of buildings and vulnerability of the population have been modelled (estimated numerically). For example, fragility functions that relate the depth of flood water to the severity of building damage have been created for a selection of property types. Vulnerability functions have been developed, which then relate the fragility functions to the estimated numbers of fatalities or people affected. This project has principally modelled physical vulnerability. The factors contributing to social vulnerability have not been investigated via this systematic review of natural hazard and risk. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 27 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 4 Risk “The potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed or damaged assets which could occur to a system, society or a community in a specific period of time, determined probabilistically as a function of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity.” (UNISDR, 2017). Risk from flooding Risk calculations have been undertaken as part of this study to determine the potential impact of flooding. The flood-risk results are presented in terms of potential for fatalities and potential number of people affected as well as numbers of buildings damaged and the direct financial losses associated with the building damage. Table 3 – Quantitative flood risk to Makeni Risk Metrics Average Annual Loss Estimates Average annual number of fatalities <1 Average annual number of persons affected 148 Average annual direct loss to all buildings (USD$) $48,000 Floods occur every year in Makeni city. When they occur, relatively large numbers of people are affected, and large areas of the city experience damage and disruption. However, it is relatively uncommon for people to be killed by flooding in Makeni city but longer return period, extreme events, may result in fatalities. Map MK-0016 (Page 29) shows flood risk in terms of number of people affected (relative to Ward area). Risk from landslide hazard Areas of medium to high landslide hazard in Makeni city are associated with the areas of relatively steeper, high relief terrain near the Mena and Wusum Hills. The landslide hazard in the remaining part of the study area is very low with localised areas of low hazard. The risk associated with landslides in Mekeni city is therefore expected to be small and detailed quantitative landslide risk calculations have not been undertaken as part of this study. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 28 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 29 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 5 DRR/DRM in Makeni “Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) aims to reduce the damage caused by natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones, through an ethic of prevention.” (UNISDR, 2017). “Disaster risk management (DRM) is the application of disaster risk reduction policies and strategies to prevent new disaster risk, reduce existing disaster risk and manage residual risk, contributing to the strengthening of resilience and reduction of disaster losses.” (UNISDR, 2017). Catchment-scale DRR/DRM Options for Makeni In line with international best practice, this study recommends that individual DRR/DRM measures are combined for practical implementation as opposed to implementing individual measures in isolation. Herein, the combinations of measures proposed in this study are referred to ‘DRR/DRM Options’. Combining measures typically reduces the risk from multiple types of hazard. For example, reforestation, hazard signage and flood-landslide communication and community engagement in combination are relatively low cost and reduce the hazard-risk from flooding and landslides. All DRR/DRM measures should be integrated across multiple sectors for developing a well-functioning and resilient city. It is recommenced that development planning moves away from the traditional single siloed master planning approach for each sector separately in favour of integrated planning of appropriate interventions across multiple sectors including all the required disaster risk reduction and management measures (considering all the risks) is an integral part for building urban resilience. In developing the DRR/DRM Options for Makeni, a range of best practice DRR/DRM measures have first been provided, these are presented in the following section. Several complimentary measures have been grouped together to form two different DRR/DRM Options for Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) (Appendix A). Finally, a prioritised list of DRR/DRM recommendations have been proposed. Implementing nature-based DRM measures has the potential to be the most cost-effective solutions in both the long and short term and this is recommended however ‘hard’ engineering solutions are also required in to achieve optimal DRM effectiveness within a specific time-frame and within the constraints of an urban setting. International good practice for DRM | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 30 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment measures (flood risk management in particular) is moving toward holistic, sustainable, green, urban drainage systems (Forbes et al. 2015; Woods Ballard et al. 2016). This holistic, sustainable approach is in line with the Greening Africa initiative (White et al., 2017) and clear guidance in Implementing Nature-Based Flood Protection (World Bank, 2017). This guidance emphasizes the importance of approaching planning of nature-based flood protection at a system or catchment scale perspective (Figure 7). Figure 7 demonstrates a selected range of DRM measures to mitigate against flooding that are recommended to be implemented in combination using a system or catchment-scale approach. Implementing a combination of measures that are applicable in the upper catchment helps to avoid implementation of more expensive and intrusive ‘hard’ engineering solutions in the lower catchment. It is essential that DRR/DRM Plans for the city of Makeni are aligned with Urban Development Plans and Zoning Regulations for the city. It is also essential that these plans are co-ordinated within a broader Urban Resilience Framework that takes into consideration the specific characteristics and vulnerabilities of the location, the diverse livelihoods of the citizens and social and economic requirements of the city infrastructure. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 31 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Figure 7 –Schematic illustration of a typical river catchment in Makeni and proposed flood hazard DRR/DRM options for Makeni. Illustrations of measures adapted from the Sustainable Urban Drainage Manual (Woods-Ballard et al., 2007). | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 32 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Selected range of best-practice DRR/DRM measures for Makeni Table 4 presents the broad range of appropriate DRR/DRM measures that have been reviewed for Makeni. Column 4 of Table 4 indicates the Option into which the measure has been included. Table 4 – Appropriate DRR/DRM measures for Makeni Hazard DRR/DRM Measure DRR/DRM Option Hazard and risk communication and Flood + Landslides 1 engagement Flood Early warning systems 1 Flood Revegetation of the natural channels Flood + Landslides Community drainage implementation Flood Instrumentation and monitoring Flood Flood water storage ponds Flood Flood hazard signage 1 Zoning (including land-use plans), land Flood + Landslide readjustment and building regulations - implementation and enforcement2 Flood Rooftop rainwater harvesting Flood Engineered green channels Flood Engineered concrete culverts 2 Flood Drainage channel clearance 2 Details of these proposed DRR/DRM recommendations for Makeni are given in Section 8 of this report. The recommendations are both hazard specific and catchment specific and within each catchment DRR/DRM measures are location specific. Map MK-0028 on Page 34 gives an example of indicative location- specific flood-warning hazard signage. 2 High cost relates to implementation and enforcement, but establishing a ‘zoning regulation’ which will include a technical study and establishing a bye-law is not high cost and is advised. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 33 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 34 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Prioritised DRR/DRM Recommendations Effective prioritisation of DRR/DRM needs to be informed by more than Cost-benefit Analysis on the basis of natural hazard and risk. Due to the scale of the study, the level of granularity of the CBA done is not sufficient to assess whether or not a specific intervention in a given area is economically justifiable. Rather it allows relative comparison of interventions at city scale and across cities. The cost-benefit analysis has indicated the potential for lives saved and losses avoided by implementing proposed DRR/DRM solutions. However, decisions cannot be based on reduction of natural hazard and risk alone. It is important that wide urban/economic development plans are taken into consideration. A holistic city wide and site specific (taking account of catchment scale), community driven DRM strategy is recommended with phased investment. Prioritised proposals based on the natural hazard and risk assessment results of this study are given below. These recommendations have been informed from a combination of international best practice and findings of project/stakeholder feedback and results of the hazard and risk analyses. recommendations are not an all-encompassing road map to address the other many cross-cutting challenges to Makeni’s urban resilience. They are recommended to be implemented for optimal long-term improvement for city resilience however viable alternatives including other structural measures e.g. flood defence bunds, exist and may deliver quicker short-term improvements to city resilience but these would require more detailed flood modelling and analysis. Priority 1 – Construction of engineered culverts and clearing of waste from existing drainage This DRR option involves the construction of engineered channels and culverts at selected locations across Makeni and the clearing of waste from existing manmade and natural drainage channels. It should be noted that the proposed culvert and channel civil engineering works are at discrete locations where major roads cross natural drainage channels. Well-designed culverts and channels at these locations will potentially have a significant impact on flood hazard reduction, offering a possible saving of nearly $1.5M USD over a 33-year period. Priority 2 – City-Wide Hazard and Risk Communication Cost benefit analysis undertaken on potential city-wide DRR/DRM options indicates that, city-wide hazard and risk communication (e.g. Figure 8) would be beneficial for Makeni. Establishing a hazard and risk communication program, including formation of a hazard and risk communication team, installation of hazard and risk signage, and establishment of an early warning system for Makeni is beneficial in terms of the risk reduction that can be achieved. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 35 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Figure 8 – Murals educating communities about Ebola, an example of effective hazard and risk communication in Freetown. Community: DRM is everybody’s business. DRR/DRM is most effective when complimentary measures are combined and there is engagement from all levels of society (Sendai Framework, Guiding Principles). Figure 9 shows some of the many roles of the community in effective DRM. This reference notes that in Japan, although both central government and local government play a leading role in mitigating against disaster, that community-based DRM activities are (and need to be) well integrated into the daily lives of people, ensuring that awareness of natural hazards is never far from their minds. The summer 2016 ‘Operation Clean Freetown’ initiative3 highlighted that citywide community involvement in Sierra Leone can result in citywide flood hazard reduction. People were incentivised to clear waste from their homes for collection, helping to significantly reduce the impacts of flooding related to blocked urban drainage during the rainy season. 3 http://apanews.net/en/news/sierra-leone-announces-operation-clean-freetown http://www.presidentsrecoverypriorities.gov.sl/single-post/2017/05/14/Youth-groups-trained-in- door-to-door-waste-management-under-Operation-Clean-Freetown-are-equipped-to-begin-work | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 36 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Figure 9 – Diagram extracted from the World Bank report “Learning from Mega disasters – Lessons from the Great East Japan Earthquake”. Priority 3 – Urban Planning and Zoning One of the most effective ways to save lives and reduce losses going forward is to minimise further building in the combined hazard zones. (MAP MK- 0018, Page 19). Currently ~10% of Makeni’s population live in these combined higher hazard zones and this number will increase if further building in these zones is not managed. If further building is allowed to continue in an unmanaged way then the risks associated with flooding will continue to increase. It is recommended that further consideration, are undertaken for the wider range of DRR/DRM options to help prioritise and inform the implementation of a holistic and sustainable DRR and DRM plan for the city of Makeni. This further work should be undertaken at the next stage when alignment can be made with urban planning. In the next stage, good urban planning should focus on the relationships between buildings, the spaces they create, the people in the communities and their | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 37 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment livelihoods and the sustainability and resilience of the urban development. The urban planning should consider the geographic distribution of natural hazard and risk identified in this project. This will help move the city away from a reactive development approach to one that prioritizes the prevention and management of risk and encourages sustainability and resilience as an intrinsic component of the economic development. Makeni should focus on ‘efficient utilization’ of existing safe land within the urban area (low hazard zones) by considering varied urban design tools for densification of safe zones, such as increasing square footage by land- readjustment, building additional floors, infill development, spot zoning etc. based on the specific site condition and land-use. This would allow the city to grow in a more sustainable and resilient way with reduced cost of service delivery for compact city, encouraging public-private partnerships for cost recovery. While establishing zoning, and building regulations for the whole city may seem overwhelming, spot zoning of low risk zones is a feasible approach to the same issue, and this can be done by demarcating zone along existing natural boundaries (road, drain etc.), and by giving it a special zoning district status for integrated multi-use redevelopment, that can help to densify safer zones. Implementation of DRR/DRM Generally, implementation of DRR/DRM on a catchment-by-catchment basis is a good approach, since it is often necessary to manage the upper catchment before issues with the lower catchment can be resolved. However, in certain hot-spots, it may be possible and indeed sensible to implement DRR/DRM on a more localised scale as a priority. This is more likely to be the case in broad, lower-relief catchments such as near Makeni than in steep catchments such as in Freetown. This report provides a summary of the priority DRR/DRM options, however does not provide the full set of necessary information to implement these options. There are numerous guides available and under development which describe the implementation process. UNISDR (2018 - https://www.unisdr.org/files/57399_drrresiliencepublicreview.pdf) describe a process which includes: 1) Defining local disaster risk reduction and resilience strategies; 2) Considering enabling factors for developing local disaster risk reduction and resilience strategies; and 3) Implementing local disaster risk reduction and resilience strategies. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 38 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 1) Defining local disaster risk reduction and resilience strategies The definition of a DRR strategy is an important first step in the implementation process. A strategy informs the development of DRR plans and subsequent actions. A strategy should have (from UNISDR, 2018): • A shared vision and understanding of DRR which is integrated into the city development strategy; • A designated core team leading and coordinating the process to ensure successful implementation; • Some form of clearly defined and allocated budget; and • A timeline of activities to fulfil the preparation of the strategy and its implementation through an action plan. Activities include various types of work, meetings, preparation of a baseline document, and outline of roles and responsibilities etc. Furthermore, an action plan addresses the following questions (UNISDR, 2018): • Set goals and priority areas – what do we need to do? • Responsibilities and roles – who has what role? • Indicators – how do we measure progress? • Time – when do we expect to complete activities? • Budget – how much will it cost and what are the possible funding sources? 2) Considering enabling factors for developing local disaster risk reduction and resilience strategies Certain enabling factors can help to develop and implement a successful DRR strategy. These factors include (UNISDR, 2018): • Having local government at the forefront of the process; • Engaging with local communities; • Engaging with other key actors e.g. NGOs. • Putting participatory mechanisms in place. It is important to also a shared understanding of local disaster risk and resilience. This report presents a city-scale assessment of natural hazard and risk; however, it may be necessary to develop a more localised understanding of risk prior to implementation of DRR options. This could be done by more detailed hazard and risk assessment (e.g. high-resolution elevation mapping for culvert re-design in hazard hot-spots) or through more detailed community engagement (e.g. to develop a locally led flood warning system). 3) Implementing local disaster risk reduction and resilience strategies The implementation of DRR strategies entails: | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 39 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment • Organizing for DRR, which includes an understanding of governmental and organizational structures for DRR (e.g. the ONS) and considering other important institutional elements such as written laws, regulations and codes, building capacities and coordination; • Knowing and understanding risks (as above, this is partly addressed by this report, but may need to be further assessed prior to implementation based on the DRR strategy content); • Having the financial resources to be able to plan and act; and • Monitoring and measuring the performance of implemented DRR strategies and ensuring that lessons learned are recorded, shared and revisited during the revision of DRR strategies in the future. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 40 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 41 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 1 Introduction 1.1 Project background The geographical location of Sierra Leone makes it prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding and landslides. Increasing urbanisation together with the effects of climate change are intensifying the problems faced by cities in Sierra Leone. The lack of available and reliable data on the frequency and impact of natural hazards on these cities is hindering DRR and DRM, urban planning and investment. To better understand and quantify natural hazard and disaster-risk in Sierra Leone, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting, with Africa Caribbean Pacific – European Union (ACP- EU) funding, the development of new natural hazard and risk information in Sierra Leone for three cities: Freetown, Makeni and Bo. The World Bank have commissioned Ove Arup and Partners International Ltd (Arup), with sub- consultants: Integrated Geo-information and Environmental Management Services (INTEGEMS, Freetown), JBA Risk Management (JBA) and the British Geological Survey (BGS) (collectively, the ‘Project Team’) to undertake this consultancy assignment. Table 5 – Natural hazard and risk assessment scope in Freetown, Makeni and Bo Freetown Makeni Bo Flooding Landslides Sea level rise Coastal erosion The results of this study will help to inform the understanding of natural hazards and risk for the three cities and build on ongoing DRR and DRM work in Sierra Leone by recommending simple but practical and effective solutions to natural hazard-risk to reduce risk and increase resilience in each of the three cities. Throughout the assignment, the Project Team has been working closely with the Office of National Security (ONS) and local stakeholders through ongoing in- country engagement, workshops and sharing of information and findings. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 42 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 1.2 Outline of this Report This report is Volume 3 of 5 of the Final Report. Volume 3 contains: Use theses sections to • Section 0 – Summary of report understand: • Background and Makeni • Section 1 – Brief introduction to the project (this Section); context including current resilience challenges that • Section 2 – Overview of Makeni from a review of the literature effect or are affected by and from knowledge gathered at the in-country workshops, with flooding, land sliding specific reference to the vulnerabilities and resilience challenges posed to Makeni from natural hazards; Use these sections to understand: • Makeni exposure (people, • Section 3 – Review of exposure and vulnerability in Makeni buildings and infrastructure); • Section 4 – Detailed review and discussion of flood hazard and • Physical vulnerability of risk results; exposure to natural hazards; locations of flood, • Section 5 – Detailed review and discussion of landslide hazard landslide on maps; and risk results; • Location and potential losses (people affected and • Section 6 – Identification of current development in Hazard $) due to risk from natural hazards in maps and tables Zones; of losses and reported by ward; • Maps and description of highest risk urban areas. Use these sections to understand: • Section 7 – General opportunities for DRR/DRM in Makeni; • High-level DRR/DRM linked to Sendai • Section 8 – Specific opportunities for DRR/DRM in Makeni; Framework for Makeni; • Hazard specific • Section 9 – Recommendations. DRR/DRM measures; • Catchment-scale location and hazard specific DRR/DRM measures; • Recommendations for DRR/DRM in Makeni. Use these appendices to • Appendix A – Cost benefit analysis understand: • High level preliminary • Appendix B – Natural hazard and risk maps estimate of DRR/DRM costs and benefits; • See a full set of maps of distribution of hazard, exposure and risks. Volume 1 contains the wider Sierra Leone country profile, context, and methodology for assessing the hazard and risks from these perils. Volumes 2 and 4 contain city-specific information relating to Freetown and Bo in the same format as this volume. Volume 5 contains a series of A3 maps showing the spatial distribution of natural hazard and risk in each of Freetown, Makeni and Bo. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 43 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 1.3 Maps and data Throughout this report, maps showing the spatial distribution of natural hazard and risk in Makeni are included as examples or when specifically referred to. These maps have been reduced in size to fit an A4 page. For the full series of A3 maps, see Volume 5. Whilst the maps provide an overview of natural hazard and risk in Makeni, most value can be gained from this study by viewing and interrogating the data produced by this study using a Geographic Information System (GIS) such as ArcGIS or QGIS (QGIS is open-source and freely available). Throughout this report, example screenshots from GIS are included to demonstrate this. All data produced by this study are available from the World Bank. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 44 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 1.4 Limitations to this report Limitations to this project include (but are not limited to): • This study is a city scale study and results have been reported and discussed at city scale. Data input at city scale does not allow for output at detailed resolution and would not be appropriate for design of individual engineering structures; • There are many limitations and assumptions of data input and modelling practices necessary for a city scale study in a data-poor region and there are addressed in the Methodology Report (Volume 1); • This study addresses specific natural hazards. It is recognised that Sierra Leone suffers from many other hazards including epidemics, wild fire, land degradation, household fires etc. Information has been compiled in this project which could be used to study these hazards in the future, however the focus of this project is on addressing the hazard and risk associated with flooding and landslides (and coastal erosion and sea-level rise in Freetown only). • Risk to agriculture is not included in this multi-city project given the primarily urban context. • For the cost assumptions, 2017 USD$ values are assumed. • This report is only focused on shocks and does not consider chronic stresses such as lack of clean basic services, poverty, unemployment, low coping capacity etc. that adds to the vulnerability quotient of the population at risk. • No indirect costs or benefits are included in the calculation of cost-benefit ratio of DRR/DRM options. Costs are quantified in terms of the capital and operational expenditure required to implement the proposed DRR/DRM measure (e.g. the cost to construct and maintain flood protection measures). The net costs and the net benefits are calculated over an assumed design life of 33 years (i.e. from 2018 to 2050) for all proposed DRR/DRM options. The results of this project can be used to support the planning and provision of disaster risk reduction and disaster risk management measures that will increase the resilience of the city against disasters. The results provide input information to inform and contribute to urban planning of the city. The hazard and risk results and related maps provided should be used to inform and build the Makeni city council’s capacities in term of natural hazard and risk knowledge, disaster risk prevention and management, and provide recommendations to help preparedness and strengthen urban community’s resilience against disasters. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 45 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 46 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 2 Makeni: City Profile and Context 2.1 Introduction This section of the report provides a general introduction to Makeni, the third largest city in Sierra Leone. It includes an overview of the geographic setting of Makeni with reference to natural hazards, and provides a summary of the resilience challenges faced by Makeni. 2.2 Geographic setting of Makeni Makeni is 140km east of Freetown, in the central interior of the country. Topographically, Makeni city has been built on low-relief flat lying ground and is also surrounded by flat ground, with the exception of the Wusum and Mene Hills to the NNW and SSW of the city respectively (MK-0002, Page 50). These hills reach around 100m above the surrounding plains. There are two main natural watercourses extending through Makeni: one to the east of the city, and one flowing through the city centre (blue lines MK-0002, Page 50). Both of these channels have broad natural floodplains. In addition, there are a number of tributaries and other minor watercourses that drain the city-interior to these main channels. Both watercourses flow southwards following the regional gentle north to south topographic slope. The channels and their floodplains are zones of natural flood, medium and high flood hazard. The natural flood hazard in these areas is compounded by removing vegetation and building within the channels and floodplains, in addition to sand mining, and built drainage that either restricts the natural flow of floodwaters through undersized culverts, and or drainage that is blocked by sediment and solid waste. Flooding is the dominant natural hazard for Makeni. However in addition, close to the Wusum and Mene Hills where there is higher relief, landslide hazard may also be an issue. 2.2.1 Geology of Makeni Makeni is underlain by rocks of Archaean age (around 3,000 million years old), which are typically comprised of granite-type igneous rocks (Figure 10). On top of these rocks there are younger sedimentary deposits and red iron-rich soils. Wusum and Mene Hills in Makeni city are examples of the granite-type rock where it outcrops at the surface. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 47 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Figure 10 – Geological map of Sierra Leone showing the geology of Makeni (circled black), after Rollinson (2016). 2.2.2 Flooding in Makeni Of the total number of people affected by disasters in Sierra Leone in the last 30 years, 90% of were affected by flooding (UNDP, 2012). From 1980 to 2010, over 220,000 people were affected by floods, and 145 people were killed (EMDAT, 2009). Floods occur frequently and can occur any time but are particularly common in the rainy season between May and October. Flooding in Makeni is particularly concentrated within the broad river channel flood plains (as shown in Figure 3). Agriculture dominates the land use in the areas near the rivers and on the flood plains. Urban expansion onto the flood plains has resulted in buildings that have been constructed on reclaimed swampland within or adjacent to the river floodplains. As urban development continues to cover the natural swampland, the flooding hazard and risk will be further intensified and increased. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 48 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Makeni city has experienced significant flooding in recent years, particularly the September 2015 floods, which were caused by widespread torrential rain over the course of 3 days. 2.2.3 Landslides in Makeni There is no geomorphological evidence of significant landsliding in Makeni, though during the course of this study various city stakeholders have mentioned the potential for ravelling of small rock and gravel from the Wusum and Mene Hills. In general, because the topography has relatively low relief in localised areas outside of the main urbanised areas, landslide hazard is considered relatively low for Makeni. This study has therefore provided only a qualitative assessment of the landslide hazard and risk for Makeni. 2.3 Urbanization in Makeni Sierra Leone’s population has been increasing since 1963 census but from 2004 to 2015 the population has increased rapidly from ~5 million to ~7 million, representing an inter-census increase of 43% (Statistics Sierra Leone, 2016). Makeni now has a population of over 125,000 people (Statistics Sierra Leone, 2016). The initial growth of Makeni was as a result of road and rail construction in 1910-30s. Makeni was up upgraded from a town to a city after decentralisation 2004 and is now the main economic and political hub of northern Sierra Leone (Workman, 2013). Map MK-0002, Page 50 shows a map which highlights urban expansion in Makeni between 2003 and 2017. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 49 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Wasum Hill Mene Hill | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 50 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Over the last 8 years the built environment expansion rate has risen from 63% to 200% (Table 6) reflecting rapid urbanisation. In 2003, the built-up area at the city centre was about 8 km2, centred on Robani and the intersections of main roads including Lunsar Road, Lunsar-Makeni Highway, Magburaka Road, Station Road and Rogbane Road. By 2009, the urbanised area expanded to the southeast and south along Kamara Road and Magburaka Road to approximately 13 km2. Most significant expansion of urbanisation took place between 2009 and 2017. Makeni city grew extensively to the north, south and west directions following the main roads and highways. By 2017, the city has an approximate area of about 24 km2, indicating a 200% increase in its size between 2003 and 2017, or an average annual increase in the urban area of 8.3% (Table 6). Table 6 – Approximate urbanised area and built environment expansion rate in Makeni Year Approximate Built Environment Average Annual Built Urbanised Area (km2)* Expansion Rate Environment Expansion Rate (%)** % 2003 8 - - 2009 13 63 8.3 2017 24 200 8.3 * Area extent of city expansion is estimated from satellite image interpretation ** Built environment expansion rate is the rate of increased urbanised area compared with Year 2003 Figure 11 shows the southern and western part of Makeni. The red ovals show where building density and extent has noticeably increased between 2002 and 2016, mainly along the Magburaka Road and Lunsar-Makeni Highway respectively. Figure 11 – Satellite images in south and west Makeni in (a) Year 2002 and (b) Year 2016. Makeni City Council (MCC) has been working with the University of San Pablo to develop an urban plan for the city. The Makeni urban planning proposal by University of San Pablo suggests while parts of Freetown experience severe congestion Makeni is still in time to avoid such issues. One of the key priorities | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 51 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment recommended by San Pablo planning project (based on city participatory forums) is the reservation of land for public use (University of San Pablo, 2016). The swamps belong to the natural and public space network along with green squares, parks, natural and agricultural spaces. 2.4 Socio-economics in Makeni Sierra Leone’s urban areas are facing rising populations, rapid urbanization (3.3%), high levels of unemployment, uncontrolled settlements, a rising number of informal businesses and severe pressure on the provision of basic services such as water supplies, sanitation and solid waste management services. The migration of citizens from rural to urban areas has further increased the demand on public services (Abarca and de Vreede, 2013). The city’s economy is largely driven by large-scale agri-businesses, trading and mining companies. (WB Concept Note, 2015), additionally many people work in the informal sector, for example as petty traders selling merchandise on the streets (SOS Children’s Villages, date unknown). 2.5 Governance in Makeni Makeni is an All People’s Congress (APC) party stronghold and hometown of the former President. The city is governed both by a local council, Makeni City Council (MCC), and chiefdom authorities headed by a paramount chief, in this case Paramount Chief (PC) Kasangna II of Bombali Sebora chiefdom. The city council and chiefdom authorities are not the only form of local government present in the city—the district council, district offices of ministries and the provincial administration are also represented; the latter consists of the resident minister (Workman, 2013). The first post-reform Makeni Town Council established in 2004 had a total of twelve political representatives—one chairman, a former NGO worker called Musa Mansaray, and eleven councillors, four of whom were women. All of the councillors are represented the APC party. The post-reform council inherited the administrative and operational staff of the pre-war committee of management. Several of those in more senior administrative positions remained in office, however approximately 50 percent of the administrative and operational staff were laid off at the end of September 2004 (Workman, 2013). Following the 2008 elections, the number of political representatives increased to sixteen, seven incumbents and nine new representatives. Seven of the sixteen councillors were women, including the deputy mayor. Of the five former councillors who were not re-elected, two had resigned during a corruption scandal and two gave up their seats to compete for the separately elected position of mayor. Sierra Leone has a National Disaster Risk Management Policy (2014). Functional disaster management committees have been formed at the chiefdom level, with community-based volunteers having been trained at both provincial and district | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 52 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment levels. Local ONS representatives have joined the workshops for this project in Makeni. Makeni City Council recognise that there is need to improve planning and budget formulation to fully reflect policy priorities of the Council, as well as realistic own source revenue forecasting. Specific attention needs to be directed towards updating the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework Development Plan of the council to reflect the emerging needs of the community for budget preparation and strengthen the valuation unit functions. The incentive for planning is currently undermined by the irregularity of resource flows from Central Government given that the Council currently depends largely on grants transfers from the Central Government for its operations, especially for devolved sectors. 2.6 Resilience challenges in Makeni There are specific vulnerabilities in Makeni city, including lack of urban planning, DRM capacity and solid waste disposal, that contribute to poor resilience against flooding in the city. 2.6.1 Resilience challenges for urban planning Whilst Makeni is making theoretical progress towards a better urban plan for the city in collaboration with San Pablo University, the lack of legislation from Central Government related to urban planning, land policy and building codes hinders progress. Significant built environment expansion has multiple direct and indirect consequences increasing both the hazard and the vulnerability of the city of floods. The high population growth in Makeni has forced vulnerable and low-income communities to settle in areas of the city which are both close to a source of livelihood and where land is cheap; these are often ecological corridors that serve as natural drainage systems for the city. This is the case in the main urbanized area of the city that floods frequently. In addition, culverts under the roads that intersect the natural drainage lines may be undersized and are often blocked either with silt or with solid waste. As the communities that live in these high hazard locations are often low-income groups, the building materials used to make houses are typically more vulnerable to the effects of flooding, resulting in higher losses of life and higher numbers of properties damaged than might occur with more robust dwellings. 2.6.2 Resilience challenges for solid waste management Solid waste management is a problem in Makeni that MCC are aware off. Lack of reliable house-to-house collections, particularly in the low-income areas results in disposal of plastic and other waste in the natural and urban watercourses used to convey flood water, reducing the capacity of the drains and causing blockages at culverts where the channels run under roads. This exacerbates the flooding hazard in Makeni. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 53 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment The city council is running a waste collection service and a disposal site with low efficiency in collection and treatment. Private sector is neither involved in waste collection, nor in recycling. Waste is disposed of indiscriminately, by the roadside, in the vicinity of market areas, in back yards, etc. and is resulting in the pollution of water resources, contributing to flooding and posing serious public health risks for local communities. Often waste is burned in the open, contributing to the emission of air pollutants and greenhouse gases. (WB Concept Note, 2015). 2.6.3 Resilience challenges for disaster risk management The Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) Report (World Bank, 2017) identified the recurrent observation that across sectors, complexities of institutional systems management cause weaknesses in the overall DRM system and resilience of Freetown to absorb shocks. This also applies to Makeni. Within the workshops held as part of this project, two main areas of governance were reported to particularly influence capacity issues around DRM for flooding and landslides. These were; planning regulation and the devolution of responsibility to local city councils. Planning regulation is intrinsically linked to urban planning. A good urban design will focus on the relationships between buildings and on the spaces they create in and in the case of Makeni, take account of high flood hazard zones. This will help move the city away from a reactive development approach to one which prioritizes the prevention of risk as recommended by the DaLA Report for Freetown (World Bank, 2017). To do this capacity building in planning regulation is required. It was reported in the project workshops (although not verified by other sources) that there is no central database of locations where ‘permits to build’ have been granted. There were anecdotal comments made by workshop participants about house plots where ‘permits to build’ were issued more than once, resulting in land disputes. It was reported that there are not enough surveyors to verify and regulate the building process i.e. that the house is built in the location where the permit was given and that it has the permitted dimensions and is structurally sound. Many of the issues around building in high hazard zones are understood by the technical staff of planning related ministries, however there is a lack of structure in place to enforce planning regulation. An additional step in Makeni and Bo is that sign-off of ‘permits to build’ is also required by Paramount Chiefs prior to issuance of ‘permit to build’ by the authority in Freetown. This adds a further complication to the system. A draft version of the National Building Code exists from 2015, which states that planning responsibility rests at local council level, but this legislation has yet to be passed. Devolution issues exist and national-level involvement is significant in local planning processes. On reflection of these significant legislation and governance issues the DaLA Report (World Bank, 2017) has recommended that: | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 54 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment “A preventive approach would require the development of policies and an enabling legislative framework and procedures for action by different institutions endorsed by representative stakeholders: central government, local government, private sector and civil society organizations that interface with the communities. The National Disaster Management Policy and National Disaster Preparedness and Response Plan are to be strengthened and operationalized into the development plans and operations of government entities, both central and local.” | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 55 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 56 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 3 Exposure and Vulnerability in Makeni 3.1 Introduction The Volume 1 Final Report describes the methodology used to estimate exposure in Makeni, in terms of: • Population distribution • Building value and distribution; and • Road value and distribution. This Section of this Report describes the modelled distribution of these elements in Makeni. The accompanying Volume 1 Report should be read in conjunction with these observations to fully understand the limitations of the datasets. Each of these exposure elements was modelled distributed to a 30m x 30m grid across Makeni. 3.2 Population Map MK-0029 (Page 59) shows the modelled gridded distribution of population in Makeni. As discussed in Section 2.3, the urban population in Makeni has been growing outwards from central Makeni (Map MK-0002, Page 50), with population growth focussed along smaller settlements which have grown up along the main road routes. The densest population in Makeni is in the very centre of the study area in Makari Gbanti – Masuba Ward (> 25 people per 30m grid unit). Population density generally reduces moving away from the central parts of Makeni, being typically 1 – 10 people per 30m grid unit towards the outskirts of the central urbanized areas. Population density along the outlying road networks is greatest in Magbenteh adjacent to the Lunsar-Makeni Highway. 3.3 Buildings Map MK-0030 (Page 60) shows the modelled gridded distribution of building value in Makeni. Modelled gridded building value in Makeni is typically <$100,000 per 30m grid unit, except for the very central parts of Makeni near to the Makeni Clock Tower, where building value is estimated to be > $250,000 per 30m grid unit. This reflects both increased building density, and increased occurrence of formal planned buildings (e.g. banks). Building value where settlements have developed adjacent to the road network on the outskirts of Makeni is generally < $50,000 per grid unit and is typically formed of informal residential buildings, for example the two small ~200m long settlements along the road which runs to the east out of Makeni through Rosint Ward. The buildings exposure model for Makeni contains ~17,900 individual buildings. Table 7 shows the modelled typology of these as determined by the method detailed in the Volume 1 Report. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 57 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Table 7 – Modelled distribution of building typology in Makeni Type Modelled component of total buildings Educational buildings 0.6% Formal residential buildings 90.7% Government buildings 1.2% Healthcare buildings 0.2% Industrial buildings < 0.1% Informal residential buildings 7.1% Utility buildings 0.1% 3.4 Roads Map MK-031 (Page 61) shows the modelled gridded distribution of road value in Makeni. It is apparent that the exposed value of roads is largely dictated by surface type. Paved roads have a modelled average replacement value of $341,700/km, whereas unpaved roads have a modelled average replacement value of $52,800/km. Makeni can be accessed from any of five main paved roads: from the south, Magburaka Road; from the west, the Lunsar-Makeni Highway, from the north, the Kabala Highway; and from the east, Teko Road and an unnamed road which heads to Makeni from Mankoreh (just to the north of Teko Road). In central Makeni, the paved road network joins and is transacted by numerous unpaved roads. These unpaved roads are generally of lower replacement value. 3.5 Vulnerability The fragility of buildings and vulnerability of the population have been modelled (estimated numerically). For example, fragility functions that relate the depth of flood water to the severity of building damage have been created for a selection of property types. Vulnerability functions have been developed, which then relate the fragility functions to the estimated numbers of fatalities or people affected. This project has principally modelled physical vulnerability. The factors contributing to social vulnerability have not been investigated via this systematic review of natural hazard and risk. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 58 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 59 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 60 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 61 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 4 Flood Hazard and Risk in Makeni 4.1 Introduction This section of the report provides an overview of the qualitative and quantitative flood hazard and risk assessments undertaken for this project. It should be read in conjunction with Volume 5, which shows maps showing the spatial distribution of hazard and risk across Makeni. 4.2 Overview of qualitative assessment Areas of medium to high flood hazard are associated with several networks of inland watercourses in the study area. There are two major watercourses extending through Makeni: one to the east of the city, and one flowing through the city centre. In addition, there are a number of tributaries and other minor watercourses associated with areas of medium to high flood hazard. Areas with a medium to high risk of flooding are located along the banks where the major watercourses intersect densely urbanised areas such as Robani and Makama to the southwest. 4.3 Overview of quantitative assessment The spatial pattern of the quantitative flood hazard for Makeni is similar to the qualitative flood hazard assessment. From the modelled 20-year flood return period (Map MK-0008, Page 63) to the 1,500 year food return period (Map MK- 0010, Page 64) the spatial extent of the flooding increases but the spatial pattern remains the same. The potentially worst flood-affected area close to the built environment is within the city centre region in south central Bombali Sebora- Mayanka, Maslasie, Market wards. A broad section of the floodplain can reach flood water depths of up to 3m for the 100-year flood. Specific potential flooding hotspots areas are discussed further in Section 6. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 62 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 63 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 64 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Map MK-0011, Page 66, shows the flood risk in terms of modelled average annual loss to buildings by ward. The majority of wards have less than $10,000 to $50,000 modelled direct building losses. The Bombali Sebora-Mayanka, Maslasie, Market wards suffer the highest ($10,000-$50,000) potential direct building losses. Map MK-0012, Page 67, shows the flood risk in terms of modelled average annual loss to buildings relative to ward area. In general, the wards contained within the main urbanized area potentially have the highest risk to buildings relative to the wards outside of the main urbanized area. The ward with highest relative risk is Makari Gbanti–Masuba ward. Map MK-0013, Page 68, indicates that the modelled average annual number of fatalities for the study area is very low. Map MK-0014, Page 69, indicates that in general the wards within the main urbanized area have the highest modelled average annual number of fatalities relative to ward area. Some wards have large areas so as the losses can be higher. The wards with highest relative risk for fatalities are Makari Gbanti – Mina Gbanti Section in the northeast and Bombali Sebora – Rogbane ward in the north. In terms of the modelled average annual number of people affected (Map MK- 0015, Page 70), the central and southern wards have the highest potential number of people (10 to 50) affected by flooding. Relative to ward area, the wards within the main urbanized area have the highest relative risk for the number of potential fatalities from flooding. Makari Gbanti-Masuba ward in the northeast of the main urbanized area has the highest relative risk of all the wards. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 65 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 66 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 67 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 68 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 69 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 70 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Figure 12 and Figure 13 show examples of the quantitative flood hazard data viewed in a GIS, emphasising the difference in the spatial extent and depth of modelled flood water for a 20 and a 1500-year flood. Figure 12 – Example of quantitative flood hazard data viewed in a GIS (river and surface water flooding, 20-year return flood). Area shown is in central Makeni (see inset map for approximate location). Light blue indicates lower floodwater depth and dark blue indicates greater floodwater depth. Building polygons and road polylines are from the exposure dataset developed as part of this study and derived from OpenStreetMap. Field of view is approximately 1.5km across and oriented north. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 71 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Figure 13 – Example of quantitative flood hazard data viewed in a GIS (river and surface water flooding, 1500-year return flood). Area shown is in central Makeni (see inset map for approximate location). Ligh t blue indicates lower floodwater depth and dark blue indicates greater floodwater depth. Building polygons and road polylines are from the exposure dataset developed as part of this study and derived from OpenStreetMap. Field of view is approximately 1.5km across and oriented north. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 72 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Table 8 provides an overview of modelled flood risk in Makeni. Table 9 provides a breakdown of modelled return period losses for Makeni. Figure 14, Figure 15 and Figure 16 show loss exceedance curves for risk to population and buildings in Makeni. These results indicate that quantitative flood risk across Makeni is relatively low in terms of the potential for fatalities and number of people impacted as well as the potential direct damage and economic losses. In comparison, the equivalent risk in Freetown is considerably higher as would be expected. Flood risk is similar but slightly higher in Bo city. Makeni city has the lowest risk results of the three cities assessed. Table 8 - Flood risk (Makeni) Risk metric Average estimate Average annual number of fatalities <1 Average annual number of persons affected 148 Average annual direct loss to all buildings $48,000 (USD$) Average annual direct loss to educational < $1,000 facilities (USD) Average annual direct loss to formal $48,000 residential buildings (USD) Average annual direct loss to government < $1,000 facilities (USD) Average annual direct loss to healthcare < $1,000 facilities (USD) Average annual direct loss to industrial < $1,000 buildings (USD) Average annual direct loss to informal < $1,000 residential buildings (USD) Average annual direct loss to utility facilities < $1,000 (USD) Table 9 - Return period flood losses (Makeni) Return period (years) Mean loss to all buildings (USD$) 10 - 20 - 50 $651,000 100 $1,696,000 250 $3,367,000 500 $4,668,000 1000 $5,483,000 | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 73 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Figure 14 – Loss exceedance curve (flooding, number of people affected) for Makeni (also showing Freetown and Bo for comparison). Figure 15 – Loss exceedance curve (flooding, number of fatalities) for Makeni (also showing Freetown and Bo for comparison). | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 74 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Figure 16 – Loss exceedance curve (flooding, direct loss to all buildings) for Makeni (also showing Freetown and Bo for comparison). | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 75 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 76 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 5 Landslide Hazard and Risk in Makeni 5.1 Introduction This section of the report provides a very high-level summary of the qualitative landslide hazard and risk results for Makeni city. Since the qualitative landslide hazard and risk assessment revealed that the level of landslide risk across the city was relatively low, a further quantitative assessment was not undertaken. 5.2 Overview of qualitative assessment Areas of medium to high landslide hazard are associated with the areas of steeper terrain near the Mena and Wusum Hills. The landslide hazard in the remaining part of the study area is very low with localised areas of low hazard close to small earth embankments (Map MK-0006, Page 78). As the development of the available land does not typically extend onto steeper terrain, the landslide risk remains very low, with localised areas of low hazard, over all of the study area. Since the qualitative assessment revealed general low levels of landslide hazard, a quantitative assessment of this hazard was not considered necessary. Figure 17 gives an example of the qualitative landslide hazard data viewed in a GIS. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 77 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 78 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Figure 17 – Example of qualitative landslide hazard data viewed in a GIS. Area shown is the east of Wusum Hill (see inset map for approximate location). Light pink indicates low qualitative landslide hazard and darker pink indicates high qualitative landslide hazard. Building polygons and road polylines are from the exposure dataset developed as part of this study and derived from OpenStreetMap. Field of view is approximately 1.5km across and oriented north. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 79 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 80 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 6 Identification of Areas at Highest Risk 6.1 Introduction This section of the report identifies the areas of highest natural hazard risk in Makeni. This is done by identifying specific areas of high risk as informed by the qualitative and quantitative hazard and risk assessments undertaken in this study and by consideration of ‘hot-spots’ identified by stakeholders during in-country workshops. 6.2 Urban development in flood hazard zones Using the results of the quantitative flood hazard assessment from this project it is possible to define the areas of the city that have high flood hazard, however it should be noted that as this is a city-scale study the existing hazard maps are not sufficient to accurately define no build zones and that more detailed assessment would be required to do so. The flood hazard zones for Makeni are defined by the spatial extent of the current 100-year return period flood levels. In addition, in order to account for the anticipated influence of climate change on flood levels, the spatial extent of the 100-year return period flood has been re-estimated for the 2050 climate change scenario. Map MK-0018, Page 82 shows the spatial extent of the flood hazard zones defined by these criteria. It is recommended that future urban development plans take into consideration the extent of these flood hazard zones with future development avoiding these higher hazard zones. In particular, critical infrastructure, such as Government buildings, hospitals, schools should not be constructed in these zones, unless special hazard and risk reduction measures are implemented. These issues are discussed further in Section 7 of this report. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 81 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 82 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment It is then possible to determine the number of existing buildings and the existing population that is currently located within these flood hazard areas. Map MK- 0019, Page 84 shows the approximate spatial distribution of the urban development within flood hazard zones as determined by the location of existing buildings. Table 10 provides a summary of the estimated number of people and estimated number of buildings within these flood hazard zones. Table 10 – Urban development within flood hazard zones Number within current Hazard Number within 2050 Hazard Zone Zone* Population ~13,000 ~19,000 Buildings ~1,500 ~2,000 *Based on current model for population and buildings. Does not consider probable population and building count increase to 2050. Map MK-0019, Page 84 shows the approximate spatial distribution of existing development within flood hazard zones as determined by the location of buildings. Map MK-0022, Page 85 shows the estimated number of buildings within flood hazard zones aggregated to wards. Map MK-0023, Page 86 shows the estimated number of buildings within the 2050 flood hazard zones aggregated to wards. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 83 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 84 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 85 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 86 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 87 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 7 Opportunities for DRR/DRM in Makeni 7.1 Introduction This section of the report presents DRR/DRM measures to address the risk to the city of Makeni from flooding and landslides hazard. The proposed DRR/DRM measures are framed according to the priorities of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (United Nations, 2015) to capture the overarching recommendations that are necessary to bring about long term and sustained improvements in reducing disaster risk. In order to build a long list of appropriate DRR/DRM measures, Section 7.2 considers flood hazard and risk within the context of the Sendai Framework for Makeni. Next, Section 7.3 summarises the link between Makeni’s vulnerabilities and challenges and the DRR/DRM measures proposed. A number of tangible measures/recommendations for flood hazard and risk reduction are noted in Section 7.3 and are described in detail in Section 8 onwards. 7.2 Sendai Framework The Sendai Framework provides a useful context in which to define the opportunities for disaster risk reduction (Table 11). The Framework is a 15-year voluntary, non-binding agreement that recognizes that the State has the primary role to reduce disaster risk but that responsibility should be shared with other stakeholders including local government and the private sector. Its main aim is the substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in the economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets of persons, businesses, communities and countries (UNISDR, 2009). The four broad DRR priorities of the Sendai Framework are: 1) Understanding disaster risk (Priority 1); 2) Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk (Priority 2); 3) Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience (Priority 3); and 4) Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to ‘Building Back Better’ in recover, rehabilitation and reconstruction (Priority 4). In line with the priorities of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 15 recommendations have been captured to begin the process of reducing urban risks and building resilience against mainly flooding (and landslides) in Makeni. The recommendations necessarily have some overlap between each Sendai Priority but ultimately all recommendations need investment and this is captured in Priority 3. The recommendations have been prioritised to address the major challenges seen in Makeni from the hazards that are the subject of this report. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 88 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment The Sendai Framework and the recommendations in Table 11 are not an all- encompassing road map to address the other many cross-cutting challenges to Makeni’s urban resilience. The Sendai Framework sets out the big picture principles of DRR/DRM strategy, however the DRR/DRM strategy with prioritized actions should be prepared for each catchment based on the local context. 7.3 General DRR Approaches for Makeni 7.3.1 Improved urban planning Urbanisation due to the increasing population in Makeni has been discussed in Section 2. Urban planning has not kept pace with population growth in Makeni resulting in communities (often low-income groups in vulnerable buildings) living in high flood hazard zones within the natural channels and floodplains of rivers and on reclaimed swampland. Map MK-0018 (Page 19) shows the hazard zones for Makeni, which are defined by the modelled extent of flood hazard. The current, i.e. present day, hazard zones are shown in dark pink, the lighter pink areas show the extent of the Combined Hazard Zones in the near future (year 2050) accounting for climate change. This map has two key functions for decision makers: • The map indicates the areas of the city at risk from natural hazards currently. These maps can help to inform decision makers where further development should be discouraged, unless appropriate planning and engineering procedures are in place. It also identifies the areas where public awareness with regard to natural hazard and risk should be focussed. • The map indicates that, in the near future (2050), a greater extent of the city will be within hazard zones due to the impact of climate change. This needs to be taken into consideration for urban planning, development and zoning for the city. It would be sensible therefore to increase the density of future urban development in areas of lower hazard and to minimise development in areas of the city where the hazard is highest. Additionally: • It is specifically recommended that no new school or hospital should be constructed within these flood hazard zones and that existing schools or hospitals within these zones should be reviewed within the context of the appropriate site specific global program for safer schools/hospital studies or similar. • Urban planning capacity building is recommended to improve the understanding of the distribution of natural hazards across the city and how this information should be used to inform planning decisions. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 89 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 7.3.2 Stopping unplanned sand mining The product of population pressure in the city coupled with poor urban planning results in a number of environmentally damaging practices within Makeni that exacerbate the hazard and risk already present. One of the major environmentally damaging practices in Makeni is sand mining of the natural channels. This practice can alter the natural course of the river and the communities mining the sand settle close to or within the channel and or floodplain, which obstructs the flood of floodwaters and affects the natural infiltration rate of floodwaters in the floodplain. Communities could be incentivised to build outside of the flood hazard zones and other sustainable source of sand could be discovered outside of the urban areas and medium to high-risk flood zones. Deforestation related to urbanization and livelihood is also an environmentally damaging practice since removing trees and natural vegetation from naturally flooding areas and replacing them with buildings, decreases the infiltration capacity of the ground to drain floodwaters. In the first instance, the public should be encouraged to cease deforestation using tools such as education initiatives, financial incentives and stronger urban planning and planning regulation. Bamboo could be introduced more widely as a scaffolding medium. Secondly, re- forestation schemes should be widely initiated. Representatives from EPA note that these schemes exist, however greater investment in government-led re- forestation and stronger financial incentive is required to promote wider uptake and faster improvements. 7.3.3 Solid waste management Successful solid waste management in Makeni will reduce the blocking of culverts and hence flood hazard. Makeni is making progress towards improving their solid waste management and understand what is required to implement a working waste management scheme as William Alpha (Chief Administrator, MCC) implemented such a scheme in Bo, which is proving to be successful. The scheme implemented in Bo includes house-to-house collections across the city. A proper waste disposal site would also need to be established. Recycling initiatives, that have also been successful in Bo city, particularly for plastics could be practically implemented in Makeni city. 7.3.4 Community engagement and shared learning There are many examples of successful community engagement initiatives to promote all cycles of the urban resilience agenda from preparedness to recovery and this is crucial to the success of any DRR measures proposed as the outcome of this project. Further consideration of coordination between government and civil society actors as well as grassroots levels, would be a valuable exercise in any disaster management intervention. Development would include understanding of existing inherent capacity as well as current NGO activities in Makeni. Such an approach has the potential to improve day-to-day conditions for some of the most | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 90 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment vulnerable residents, learning new skills as well as enhancing local emergency preparedness and providing local ownership and understanding. Community based organisations with support of NGOs could be mobilised and incentivised to undertake jobs such as clearing out of blocked drainage systems or constructing appropriate local-scale drainage. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 91 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Table 11 – DRR/DRM for Makeni within the context of the Sendai Framework. Priority 1 – Understanding Natural Disaster Risk No. Area for Objectives Actions Outputs/Outcomes Key Stakeholders Existing Timescale4 Improvement (lead in bold) guidance? Knowledge of Better understand and Further investigation and study Detailed flood hazard maps National Government Brief note in Short- term. flood hazard in characterize flooding at of flood hazard building on this for each ward in Makeni. (for funding and National Disaster Makeni. catchment scale. data. assignment of roles), Preparedness Plan. Fund courses on Civil EPA. Engineering at university level. 1 Better understand the Support existing UNDP Climate Weather and climate National Government (for UNDP funded Medium term. characteristics of the river project (CIDMEWS) to collect network. funding and assignment project network response to flooding and openly share rainfall and River gauge network. of roles), EPA. CIDMEWS). in Makeni. weather data. Collect and openly share river gauge data. Knowledge of Data collection on exposure Perform detailed site surveys Detailed survey data and National Government, National Land Short to exposure and and vulnerability (site for priority assets. reports to be available in an Local Government, ONS, conference 2017? Medium term. vulnerability in assessments) for priority accessible database in Ministry of Land Country Makeni. assets in Makeni, including geospatial format managed Planning and Noted in Sierra hospitals, emergency by an appointed government Environment, EPA, Leone Disaster response facilities, schools agency. Technical Specialists (in- Management and critical infrastructure county and international), Policy, Draft 2006. 2 including roads and bridges. New mapping agency. Consider building on Open Street Map dataset from this project. As a secondary priority, data should also be gathered on drainage or flood defence assets in selected catchments. 4 Proposed timescales (same for each table): Short term – 1 year; Medium term – 1 to 3 years; Long term – 3 years | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 92 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Priority 1 – Understanding Natural Disaster Risk No. Area for Objectives Actions Outputs/Outcomes Key Stakeholders Existing Timescale4 Improvement (lead in bold) guidance? Gather and share post-disaster Form an in-country Field investigation reports National Government (for National Land Short to damage and loss data for organization to carry out multi- and related data. funding and assignment conference 2017? Medium term. physical assets. disciplinary post-disaster data of roles), ONS-DMD, Noted in Sierra Gather and share post-disaster collection missions. This should Technical Specialists (in- Leone Disaster site effect data (flood high- include investigation of: county and international), Management water mapping). performance of physical assets, Insurance. Policy, Draft 2006. geological and flood data, evaluation of disaster management and socio- economic effects. Communicate findings with key stakeholders including the insurance industry. Education and Increase awareness of natural Continue public awareness Radio, television National Government, Noted in Sierra Short term. communication hazards and risk. campaigns through national and broadcasts. ONS-DMD, Ministry of Leone Disaster to citizenry Inform public officials and local media. Written materials. Information and Management about flood other decision makers. Communication (MIC). Policy, Draft 2006. Wall murals and posters. hazard. Promote competency of professionals. Implementation of flood hazard Schools curriculum for Medium term. 3 disaster awareness in schools. teachers and students on flood risk. Education of government and Training materials and Medium term. municipal officials through guidance documents for training and written materials. government and municipal officials. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 93 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Priority 1 – Understanding Natural Disaster Risk No. Area for Objectives Actions Outputs/Outcomes Key Stakeholders Existing Timescale4 Improvement (lead in bold) guidance? Education of engineers and Continued Professional National Government, No. Medium to architects. Development (CPD) Local Government, ONS- Long term. courses for engineers and DMD, Sierra Leone architects. Universities. University curriculum on natural hazards and risk, including design requirements. Education of communities in Community engagement to Local Government, ONS- Noted in Sierra Short term. flood hazard awareness. empower community DMD, Ministry of Leone Disaster Consideration should be given groups and local leaders. Information and Management for gender and age factors, Communication (MIC), Policy, Draft 2006. cultural differences as well as Communities. more vulnerable groups. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 94 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Priority 2 – Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk No. Area for Objectives Actions Outputs/Outcomes Key Stakeholders Existing Timescale Improvement (lead in bold) guidance? DRM To strengthen the DRM legal To update and approve DRM A finalised and adopted National Government, Sierra Leone Short term. Framework. framework and policy in policy based on Sierra Leone DRM strategy enabling ONS-DMD. Disaster Makeni, including aspects Disaster Management Policy, climate-smart and resilient Management which address DRM for flood draft June 2006. decisions at city scale. Policy, draft June hazards. To establish consistent DRM Investment plans to carry 2006. 4 terminology among out DRM actions. stakeholders and in laws related Strategy for obtaining funds to DRM and DRR. to carry out DRM (from National Government, local government and NGOs). The legal Overall, to reduce the risk from Enact laws which require urban Legal framework to require National Government, National Land Short to framework for natural hazards for new and areas to have up-to-date zoning up-to-date urban plans. Local Government. conference 2017? Medium term. urban plans for existing development. plans. Makeni City Specifically, to ensure the Council. regulatory framework requires the development and adoption of up-to-date zoning plans. Ensure urban plans take into Provide funding and added Hiring of additional staff in National Government, National Land 5 account up-to-date information capacity to those who carry out Local Government, Local Government, conference 2017? on flood hazard and risk. urban planning to access, Ministry of Land and other Ministry of Land understand and incorporate government agencies Country Planning and natural hazard and risk involved in producing Environment, ONS- considerations into zoning zoning planning. DMD, Technical planning documents. Training programmes for Specialists. This should involve the ability existing staff involved in to access relevant databases land use planning in natural which contain hazard and risk hazard and risk. data (GeoNode and others). | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 95 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Priority 2 – Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk No. Area for Objectives Actions Outputs/Outcomes Key Stakeholders Existing Timescale Improvement (lead in bold) guidance? The capacity Improve the quality of reviews Ensure the building permitting Updated regulatory Local Government, Draft National Medium term. and capability ahead of design approvals and process is simple and requirements and processes. Ministry of Land Country Building Code Draft of design. construction permits. transparent. Added capacity for officials Planning and 2015. Ensure consistent construction Introduce information involved in the regulatory Environment, Ministry of monitoring. communications technology process. Works Housing and Framework for (ICT) for building control Infrastructure. review and Ensure consistent enforcement Revised requirements for checking of of regulatory documents. procedures. obtaining engineering good practice. Increase capacity and professional licences. remuneration of officials 6 involved in design approvals and construction monitoring. Ensure fees are consistent with the cost of regulatory services. Ensure penalties are enforced for lack of compliance. Increase inspection requirements for construction, particularly residential construction. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 96 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Priority 2 – Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk No. Area for Objectives Actions Outputs/Outcomes Key Stakeholders Existing Timescale Improvement (lead in bold) guidance? Regional and To promote internal Create role exchanges at city Established exchange Local Government, No Medium term inter-city collaboration and exchange of level within a dedicated team of programmes with targets Universities, Technical collaboration in knowledge in the area of natural specialists. that are monitored. Specialists (in-county and the areas of hazard engineering and disaster Government scholarships to international). natural hazard risk reduction. foreign universities (which engineering and include conditions such as disaster risk returning to Sierra Leone 7 reduction. for a certain number of years after completion of degree). Hosting of international conferences related to natural hazard engineering and/or DRR. Central, quality To update and improve existing Roles and responsibilities to be Establishment of openly National Government, No Medium term reviewed, city-wide databases for natural assigned for the maintenance of accessible databases. ONS-DMD and other maintained and hazard and risk data including databases and sharing of appointed stakeholders, managed open location and characteristics of information among government Technical Specialists (in- 8 source data on physical assets and expected agencies and other stakeholders. county and international). flood hazard, damage and losses. exposure and risk. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 97 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Priority 3 – Investing in Natural Disaster Risk Reduction for Improved Urban Resilience No. Area for Objectives Actions Outputs/Outcomes Key Stakeholders Existing Timescale Improvement (lead in bold) guidance? Invest in To reduce the risk from flood, Produce up to date zoning plans Hazard and risk maps and National Government, No, Land Policy Medium term improved urban hazards for new and existing based on the results of this data to be integrated into Local Government, ONS- Conference, 2017? planning zoning development in Makeni. study and the ‘high hazard zone zoning planning and DMD, Ministry of Noted in Disaster plans taking into maps’. regulations. Lands, Country and Management consideration Produce guidance on Infrastructure (particularly Environment, Ministry Policy, Draft 2006. hazard and risk infrastructure planning and roads and drainage) to be of Works Housing and information and installation. designed and installed prior Infrastructure. ‘high hazard zone to house construction. Add capacity and capability to maps’ from this local authorities and others who 9 study. carry out zoning planning so they can access and use hazard and risk data from this study. Educate government officials in Guidelines for site selection Local Government, No, Land Policy Short term planning and engineering for critical buildings Technical Specialists, Conference, 2017? professionals on selection of (schools, hospitals, Ministry of Lands, safer sites for critical/higher emergency response Country and importance buildings and facilities) and infrastructure. Environment. infrastructure. Invest in To train engineering Develop and deliver Continuing Training materials in CPD. National Government for No, Land Policy Long term improved professionals in climate-smart Professional Development University courses on investment planning. Conference, 2017? understanding and designs resilient to flood (CPD) courses on the current hazard resilient and climate- Universities, Local Noted in Disaster 10 among engineers, hazards. best practice for climate-smart smart designs and principles Government. World Management developers and and resilient design principles of ‘build-back-better’. Bank. Policy, Draft 2006. communities and detailing. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 98 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Priority 3 – Investing in Natural Disaster Risk Reduction for Improved Urban Resilience No. Area for Objectives Actions Outputs/Outcomes Key Stakeholders Existing Timescale Improvement (lead in bold) guidance? about disaster risk To build understanding at Develop practical, locally Guidance notes targeting Local Council, Ministry Noted in Disaster Long term. reduction and community level about appropriate guidance for community on a range of of Information and Management mitigation. disaster risk reduction and community education on DRR-related topics Communication (MIC). Policy, Draft 2006. mitigation measures. actions that would improve including: recommended urban resilience to flooding. flood prevention construction of houses, and; recommended solid waste disposal that does not block drainage. Invest in To produce/update building Recommendations related to Revised Norms. National Government, No. Long term. improved codes codes. updates for the building code Guidance materials relating Ministry of Works and standards and To improve the provisions for include: to the Norms. Housing and guidance related disaster-resilient and climate- Updated flood, hazard and risk Infrastructure. to disaster smart design for housing and maps. resilient and infrastructure. New provisions for non- climate-smart 11 structural mitigations. house designs. Update Norms and/or guidelines on hazard assessment of buildings and infrastructure. Update Norms related to hazard retrofit of buildings and infrastructure. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 99 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Priority 3 – Investing in Natural Disaster Risk Reduction for Improved Urban Resilience No. Area for Objectives Actions Outputs/Outcomes Key Stakeholders Existing Timescale Improvement (lead in bold) guidance? Invest in To reduce the impact on the Review proposed intervention Detailed investment plans National Government for Freetown Structure Medium and intervention DRR population of Makeni in terms DRR measures from this report. for each ward including investment planning. Plan 2013-2018 & Long term. measures to of loss of life and economic Review priority of intervention detailed cost for each DRR Local Government Freetown City reduce economic costs from damaging floods. measures by considering Urban intervention measures. (MCC) for Development Plan losses and loss of To improve resilience of the Planning and cost-benefit Identify funding to carry out implementation of the 2016-2018 & life from population of Makeni to analysis. investment plans. plans. Environmental damaging floods. damaging floods. Assessment and 12 Implementation of risk Evaluation of reduction measures to Natural Disaster reduce flooding for each Risk and Mitigation ward including engineering in Freetown. No measures. similar plan is available for Makeni. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 100 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Priority 4 – Enhancing Preparedness for Natural Disasters No. Area for Objectives Actions Outputs/Outcomes Key Stakeholders (lead Existing Timescale Improvement in bold) guidance? 13 Improved To improve emergency In general, the results of this Updated national, regional National Government, National Disaster Medium term. understanding and preparedness in different key study should be used to inform and city level emergency Local Government, Preparedness Plan implementation of sectors (education, health, emergency response and plans. Ministry of Health and & National Disaster actions for flood critical infrastructure, cultural preparedness planning at a Sanitation. Management and landslide heritage) and at different national and local level. Policy. preparedness. scales (National, regional, Cross sectoral collaboration and city-level and communities). sharing of information is essential for robust planning. For hospitals, MoHS to Sharing of emergency National Government, National Disaster Medium term. coordinate which hospitals are response plans among Local Government, Preparedness Plan more critical for emergency stakeholders. Ministry of Health and & National Disaster response and expected number Hospital emergency Sanitation. Management of causalities for flood/landslide response plans and training Policy. scenarios. materials for hospital staff. Countywide emergency preparedness planning and training for hospital staff including communication and coordination post-disaster and maintaining emergency medical supplies. Provision of mobile emergency medical facilities to allow adequately resourced emergency medical response for remote regions or where access to permanent medical facilities is not available. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 101 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Priority 4 – Enhancing Preparedness for Natural Disasters No. Area for Objectives Actions Outputs/Outcomes Key Stakeholders (lead Existing Timescale Improvement in bold) guidance? For emergency response Sharing of emergency National Government, National Disaster Medium Term. facilities (including fire response plans among Local Government, Preparedness Plan stations), MoHS to coordinate stakeholders. Ministry of Health and & National Disaster which emergency responses National, regional and local Sanitation. Management facilities are more critical for emergency response plans Policy. emergency response. and training materials for Countywide emergency first responders related to preparedness planning and natural hazard risks. training for emergency response Countrywide coverage for staff including communication emergency response plans and coordination post-disaster and resource (permanent and maintaining emergency and voluntary), including supplies. rural and remote areas. Countrywide programme for community first responders. For schools, MoE to Sharing of emergency National Government, National Disaster Medium term. coordination with response plans among Local Government, Preparedness Plan municipalities on which schools stakeholders. Ministry of Education. & National Disaster they plan to use for emergency Training materials for Management response. teachers and students. Policy. Countywide emergency preparedness training for teachers and students. 14 Improved Assess emergency response Scale-up programmes for Updated investment plan National Government, National Disaster Medium term. responsiveness capability in country or training of community first for improving capacity for Local Government, Preparedness Plan and through wider international responders in areas without emergency response Communities. & National Disaster comprehensive assistance (shelter, food, designated emergency response including capacity building Management systems for search and rescue). personnel. in communities. Policy. emergency Early warning system. Implementation of the plan. response. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 102 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Priority 4 – Enhancing Preparedness for Natural Disasters No. Area for Objectives Actions Outputs/Outcomes Key Stakeholders (lead Existing Timescale Improvement in bold) guidance? Improved early warning systems for flood, storm surge and landslides. Improved and country-wide communications network for emergency response. 15 Improved To understand the funding Gather and share risk Engagement with National Government, DaLA report Long term. economic gap for potential losses from assessment loss data to international, regional and ONS- DMD, Insurance, National Disaster resources to natural disasters. understand funding gap and local insurance stakeholders Technical specialists. Preparedness Plan address post- To identify potential sources ensure fair pricing of insurance. to share loss data to inform & National Disaster disaster funding of funds that can be allocated The National Government updated catastrophe models Management and recovery. post-disaster. should consider viability of for the country and region. Policy. To strengthen government exte-ante funding arrangement, A disaster risk financing regulation of the insurance insurance pools, traditional plan for the National market to ensure financial insurance and re-insurance. Government. This could stability and growth of Train and retain more insurance include in the longer term, capitalisation and incentivize professionals in Sierra Leone. public and private insurance take up of disaster risk partnerships (countrywide Update laws and regulations insurance. and regional/global). relating to insurance. To spread insurance risk Training for insurance Standardize insurance coverage regionally/globally. professionals related to with respect to natural disasters. policies for disaster related To increase robustness and Raise public awareness about insurance. penetration in insurance the benefits of private insurance market to respond to natural coverage for natural disaster hazard losses. events. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 103 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 104 © http://www.davishunter.com The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 8 Hazard and Catchment Specific DRR/DRM Measures 8.1 Introduction The DRR/DRM measures for Makeni proposed in this section have been informed by discussion with the stakeholders, field observations, expert judgment and research, and by the qualitative and quantitative flood hazard and risk maps that have been developed by this study. A broad range of DRR measures have been considered based on a high-level qualitative review of cost, practicality, and consideration of the climate, topography and nature of the flood hazard in Makeni city. In line with international best practice, this study recommends that individual DRR/DRM measures are combined for practical implementation as opposed to implementing individual measures in isolation. Herein, the combinations of measures proposed in this study are referred to ‘DRR/DRM Options’. Combining measures typically reduces the risk from multiple types of hazard. For example, reforestation, hazard signage and flood-landslide communication and community engagement in combination are relatively low cost and reduce the hazard-risk from flooding and landslides. All DRR/DRM measures should be integrated across multiple sectors for developing a well-functioning and resilient city. Development planning should move away from traditional single silo master planning and integrate appropriate interventions, combining multiple DRR/DRM measures. High- level cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is one tool to help establish prioritised DRR/DRM Options, however, unfavourable CBA results should not exclude potentially effective measures. 8.2 Flood Hazard Specific DRR/DRM Measures in Makeni International ‘state-of-the-practice’ in flood management is moving towards natural catchment management, which focusses on revegetation of the natural river channels and reforestation of the upper catchment (e.g. Forbes et al. 2015; Woods Ballard et al. 2007). This strategy is in line with the Greening Africa initiative (White et al. 2017). Greening measures, particularly in the upper catchment are interpreted to be the best way to mitigate for the effects of flooding in the lower catchment urban areas. Implementing DRR measures in the upper catchment also helps to avoid unnecessary implementation of more expensive and intrusive ‘hard’ engineering solutions in the lower catchment. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 105 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment The natural watercourses in Makeni drain areas (catchments) with shallow topographic slopes. Since the terrain in and surrounding Makeni study area has relative low relief except for the Wusum and Mena Hills, the catchments are large and contain main channels and a number of tributaries with broad floodplains (Map MK-0028, Page 116). The study area has 7 catchments (C1-C7), but of these there are two main catchments (C1 and C3) that contain almost all the wards within the study area, including the central main urbanized area (Map MK-0028, Page 116). Because all the catchments typically have the same range of topographic relief, the nature of the flood hazard is relatively similar irrespective of position in the catchment. The hazard and risk may vary on a catchment-by- catchment basis, depending on the size of the catchment and the extent of urbanization. Because of this, it is practical to present the proposed flood DRR/DRM measures on a catchment-by-catchment basis as shown in Figure 18. The proposed flood DRR/DRM for each catchment are shown in more detail on Map MK-0028, Page 116. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 106 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 1 Figure 18 – Schematic illustration of a typical river catchment in Makeni and proposed flood hazard DRR/DRM measures for Makeni. Illustrations of measures adapted from the Sustainable Urban Drainage Manual (Woods-Ballard et al., 2007). | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 107 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Table 12 – Appropriate DRR/DRM measures for Makeni Measure Hazard DRR/DRM Measure DRR/DRM number Option Hazard and risk communication and 1 Flood + Landslides 1 engagement 2 Flood Early warning systems 1 3 Flood Revegetation of the natural channels 4 Flood + Landslides Community drainage implementation 5 Flood Instrumentation and monitoring 6 Flood Flood water storage ponds 7 Flood Flood hazard signage 1 Zoning (including land-use plans), land 8 Flood + Landslide readjustment and building regulations - implementation and enforcement 9 Flood Rooftop rainwater harvesting 10 Flood Engineered green channels 11 Flood Engineered concrete culverts 2 12 Flood Drainage channel clearance 2 8.2.1 Flood hazard and risk communication and engagement Communication of hazard and risk information and the associated community engagement should be an essential component of the holistic and sustainable DRR/DRM strategy for Makeni. It is very important that citizens be provided with access to the information related to the hazards that threaten their communities. It is recommended that the hazard and risk information be provided to communities through a range of communication mechanisms taking into consideration the broad range of stakeholders and their communication needs. Examples could include, local and national radio warnings, flood hazard sensitisation programs in schools, community WhatsApp groups for sharing information and hazard warning communication co-ordinated administrated by a council representative linked to the ONS. City and District Council website information dedicated to flood hazard and a designated flood hazard reporting phone number for the rainy season. Some of these communication methods are already in use in Makeni, but they can still be more strongly supported and strengthened, in addition to new methods added to create a co-ordinated framework of communication at every level in the city, from the community to the councillors. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 108 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 8.2.2 Early warning systems The Climate Information, Disaster Management, and Early Warning System – Sierra Leone (CIDMEWS-SL) web portal5, which is scheduled to launch early 2018, will provide early warning system capability across Sierra Leone including Makeni City. The system will be the first of its kind in Sierra Leone and serve as both a planning and response tool (UNDP Newsletter, November 20176). Councils and communities alike will be able to access this data and natural hazard information (though with an internet connection). The rainfall data available from CIDMEWS-SL could be used to help inform flood early warnings based on flood- triggering rainfall thresholds. Typically, these systems are defined at the regional scale, regardless of the different susceptibility of each catchment. Global good practice indicates that early warning systems require a strong technical basis calibrated to local conditions. It is important that the warning system is “people centred”, with a robust dissemination system that functions under difficult and extreme environmental conditions, with clear messaging to all recipients, and is co-ordinated with other DRM measures to effectively direct the impacted population to defined safe areas such as disaster response shelters within the city (discussed below). 8.2.3 Revegetation and reforestation of the natural catchment areas This concept capitalises on use of the natural hydrological processes, landscape features and characteristics of an area to manage flooding. It involves altering or restoring a landscape to reduce, store or transport flood waters. There are many ways in which this could be achieved. In Makeni, since development in the natural channels and floodplains is limited at present, it would be important to maintain this state to stop flood hazard and risk increasing. Often, re-vegetation and reforestation measures are proposed for upper catchments to increase the rate of rainwater infiltration and to reduce the volume and rate of flow of floodwaters where there are steep mountain slopes and the rates of precipitation are typically higher. Although Makeni does not have this type of upper catchment topography, it is still important to maintain the natural state of vegetation in the river channels so that rates of infiltration are maintained. 8.2.4 Community drainage implementation Most urban development in Makeni, has no planned drainage infrastructure to collect rainfall run-off and transport the water to the natural drainage network in a controlled manner. It is recommended that drainage infrastructure be planned for all urban development in Makeni. The World Bank funded, Management of Slope Stability in Communities (MoSSaiC) approach, established by researchers from the University of Bristol, provides a community-based and scientific approach for delivering flood (and landslide) hazard reduction measures (Anderson and 5 CIDMEWS-SL @ https://www.cidmews-sl.solutions/index.php/component/users/?view=remind 6 http://www.sl.undp.org/content/sierraleone/en/home/library/crisis_prevention_and_recovery/disas ter-recovery-and-risk-management-newsletter--.html | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 109 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Holcombe, 2013). A schematic illustration of the MoSSaiC system is shown in Figure 19. It is recommended that a pilot study of the MoSSaiC drainage system be undertaken within a catchment area of Makeni to demonstrate the benefits that can be achieved. Following the successful implementation of a pilot study, the installation of drainage infrastructure more widely across Makeni could be more accurately costed and undertaken. Whilst this type of study is more typically applied in areas of higher relief, the principles could still be applied for Makeni. Figure 19 – The MoSSaiC community based drainage system to reduce flooding and landslide hazard and risk (World Bank Project Insights 78723 Issue #12). 8.2.5 Instrumentation and monitoring There are very few if any locations where rainfall and rivers flows are systematically recorded in Makeni city and the surrounding area. It is therefore difficult to calibrate any quantitative analysis of rainfall distribution, run-off and the resulting flows in rivers and streams in the region and within the city. It is recommended that a network of rain gauges and stream gauges are established across the region to provide the required scientific information for related analysis. If funding were made available, it is recommended that appropriate academic institutions (for example University of Makeni in | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 110 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment collaboration with INTEGEMS, and members of the appropriate ministries) in the region are given the task of operating and maintaining the instrumentation and for the systematic storage and interpretation and dissemination of the resulting information. 8.2.6 Flood-water storage ponds Floodwater storage ponds can be natural low topographic areas either within the flood plain of the river system or along the river channel itself. There are two main reasons for providing temporary detention of floodwater: • Compensate for the effects of catchment urbanisation; and, • Reduce flows passed downriver and mitigate downstream flooding. Achieving either or both above objectives would help reduce the flood hazard across Makeni. There are a number of different floodwater storage options that can be considered and the selection of the type and location of such measures would require more detailed engineering and hydrological investigation. Example locations for flood storage ponds are shown on Map MK-0028, Page 116. 8.2.7 Flood hazard signage Hazard signage is a relatively low-cost, high impact risk-reduction measure that will raise awareness of flood hazards across Makeni city. The aim of is to facilitate a general citywide education program related to flood hazards and risk. Associated plans and evacuation routes should also be developed. It is recommended that signs are located where they can receive maximum visual impact to the community – at main road junctions, typically in urban areas, and close to high hazard areas as identified by the quantitative hazard mapping. If hazard signage is to be implemented, it is recommended that the sign locations should be decided in conjunction with the ONS. Example locations for flood hazard signs specifically in Makeni, based on the criteria above, are shown on Map MK-0028, Page 116. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 111 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 8.2.8 Zoning regulation It is recommended that zoning planning maps are developed for Makeni. Preliminary land use-type maps have been produced as part of a collaborative project between University of Makeni and University of San Pablo, however, it is recommended that these maps are reviewed in light of the flood hazard mapping available from this project. Zoning maps, informed by the hazard mapping, should be used to help inform future urban development in the city and to ensure that future development takes into consideration the spatial distribution of natural hazards across the city. It is recommended that the hazard maps prepared for this study are used to inform decision makers whether land is suitable for specific building usage types including emergency response facilities, Government administrative buildings, hospitals and other medical facilities, schools and critical infrastructure. Makeni should focus on ‘efficient utilization’ of existing safe land within the urban area (low hazard zones) by considering varied urban design tools for densification of safe zones, such as increasing square footage by land- readjustment (Figure 20), building additional floors, infill development, spot zoning etc. based on the specific site condition and land-use. This would allow the city to grow in a more sustainable and resilient way with reduced cost of service delivery for compact city, encouraging public-private partnerships for cost recovery. . | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 112 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Figure 20 – Land readjustment can be an alternative to high-rise construction for densification of safer areas through spot zoning (diagram from https://unhabitat.org/books/remaking-the-urban- mosaic-participatory-and-inclusive-land-readjustment/ ) | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 113 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 8.2.9 Rooftop rainwater harvesting The aim of rooftop rainwater harvesting is to store rainwater in artificial, closed containers, made from a safe, sanitary material. This flood risk-reduction option helps to reduce the volume of rainwater runoff flowing into the watercourses. The ‘harvesting’ method can capture intense rainstorm runoff and the stored (clean) water could then be used for drinking, cooking, cleaning and for agriculture and livestock. 8.2.10 Engineered green channels Engineered green channels involve re-profiling and re-vegetating natural or man- altered drainage channels, helping to increase the capacity for floodwaters and slowing their flow. These engineered green channels have been proposed in the catchment locations where flow is currently restricted and where main transport routes cross existing channels with high flood hazard levels. 8.2.11 Engineered concrete culverts Undersized culverts were identified at a few locations within Makeni city. It is recommended that further civil engineering design calculations are undertaken to correctly size the culverts to ensure that design flows are not restricted. These engineered culverts are proposed in the catchment locations where flow is currently restricted and where main transport routes cross existing channels with high flood hazard levels. It is important that the resizing of culverts is undertaken in conjunction with related channel works upstream and downstream of the culverts such that flows are transferred through to large scale natural drainage system outside of Makeni city. 8.2.12 Drainage channel clearance It is recommended that a systematic program of unblocking waste from the existing open drainage channels and culverts is undertaken as a priority. Clearance of the existing drainage network will promote improved conveyance of floodwaters, particularly in the denser urban areas where solid waste significantly obstructs drainage. It is recommended that community groups and the wider community could be incentivised to participate in the clearing of waste from the drainage network of the city. The summer 2016 ‘Operation Clean Freetown’ initiative7 highlighted that citywide community involvement in Sierra Leone can result in citywide flood hazard reduction. People were incentivised to clear waste from their homes for collection, helping to significantly reduce the impacts of flooding related to blocked urban drainage during the rainy season. 7 http://apanews.net/en/news/sierra-leone-announces-operation-clean-freetown http://www.presidentsrecoverypriorities.gov.sl/single-post/2017/05/14/Youth-groups-trained-in- door-to-door-waste-management-under-Operation-Clean-Freetown-are-equipped-to-begin-work | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 114 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 8.2.13 Multi-purpose disaster response shelters It is recommended that multi-purpose disaster response shelters are established at locations across Makeni city. It is important that the shelters are located outside defined flood and other hazard zones, are evenly distributed across Makeni and at secure locations accessible to the public via existing infrastructure. It is recommended that the disaster response centres are established by upgrading existing schools or other existing community facilities or by construction of new school or community facilities. It is important that the shelter is multi-purpose so that social benefits to the community are maximised and the facility is used and maintained while not required for its disaster response shelter function. Schools and community facilities are recommended because they are typically perceived as safe and secure for children, woman and vulnerable members of society including the elderly. It is recommended that the shelters include separate sections for women and their children – as it is very important that shelters are regarded as providing a “safe haven” (World Bank, 2014). One of the purposes of the centre will be to provide temporary accommodation for displaced people during and immediately after a disaster such as flooding. It is therefore important that the centre has suitable covered space such as a hall or other building for the required number of displaced people and in addition, sufficient open space where additional people could be accommodated in tents if required. It is also important that the centre has sufficient welfare facilities that could be used by an increased number of people if required. Welfare facilities would include toilets, water and bathing, and facilities cooking. In addition to welfare facilities for impacted population, it is recommended that open space is available if possible for livestock which allows improved economic recovery. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 115 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 116 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 8.3 Flood DRR/DRM recommendations by catchment for Makeni The map MK-0028, Page 116, shows the DRR/DRM measures proposed for each catchment. Below, the hazard-risk context and the proposed flood risk-reduction measures for each catchment are described. The proposed measures have been described at potential flooding hotspots identified from satellite imagery. These flood hotspots are not verified. 8.3.1 Bombali Sebora – Teko (C1) Located near the city centre of Makeni the 100-year flood intersects and flows beneath two of the main roads (Lunsar and the Lunsar-Makeni Highway) in addition to several secondary roads (Map MK-0028, Page 116). Buildings have also been constructed within the floodplain at this site and are at risk of flooding. Flooding at this site would impact the transport connectivity of the city, and could impact access to the Old Government Hospital close by. The proposed FDRR measures for C1 at this potential flooding hotspot are shown on Map MK-0028, Page 116 and include: • Flood-hazard signage to communicate the hazard and risk in the catchment; • Clearing the drainage channels and culverts of waste and sediment to increase the conveyance of flood waters through the urban areas; • Restoring the natural floodplain to help infiltration of flood waters into the ground • Investigation of low-lying rural areas close to or already part of the natural floodplain for water storage west of Station Road south of the Makeni Central Mosque, and north of the Old Government Hospital. 8.3.2 Bombali Sebora – Teko (C3) In the north of the city and of catchment C3 the current 100-year flood intersects with the Rogbane Road. At this site the watercourse flows south beneath the road into a natural swamp area. The flood hazard extent surrounding this area contains a relatively densely built up area. The Rogbane Road is the main route to travel north out of the city, it also connects people with the Holy Spirit Hospital, ABD Hospital Masuba and Fullah Town Community Health Post. Damages to this road would have a significant impact. The proposed flood DRR measures for C3 at this potential flooding hotspot are shown on Map MK-0028, Page 116 and include: • Flood-hazard signage to communicate the hazard and risk in the catchment; • Clearing the drainage channels and culverts of waste and sediment to increase the conveyance of flood waters through the urban areas; | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 117 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment • Restoring the natural floodplain with vegetation to help attenuate the flood flow and increase infiltration of flood waters into the natural ground; • Investigation of low-lying rural areas close to or already part of the natural floodplain for water storage west of Station Roadsouth of the Makeni Central Mosque, and north of the Old Government Hospital. 8.3.2.1 Bombali Sebora – Maykanka (C3) Located to the south of the city the 100-year flood intersects with two sections of the Magburaka Road. This is the main highway to travel south of the city. Severe flooding at this location would affect a densely urban area and cause damages to the Magburaka Road impacting movement of people and trade. These roads connect people with the Makama Community Health Centre, Arab Hospital, Makeni Region Hospital, and the Magbenteh Hospital to the south in addition to the Makama Community Market and Ernest Bai Koroma University. The proposed FDRR measures for C3 at this potential flooding hotspot are shown on Map MK-0028, Page 116 and include: • Flood-hazard signage to communicate the hazard and risk in the catchment; • Clearing the drainage channels and culverts of waste and sediment to increase the conveyance of flood waters through the urban areas; • Restoring the natural floodplain to help infiltration of flood waters into the ground; • Investigation of low-lying rural areas close to or already part of the natural floodplain for water storage south of the University on both sides of the river floodplain and to the northwest of the Magburaka Road (upstream of the road culvert/culverts). | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 118 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 119 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 9 Recommendations 9.1 Recommendations for DRR/DRM Priorities This study has provided, for the first time, quantitative spatially accurate digital natural hazard and risk data for Makeni city. This data is now freely available in printed A4 and A3 size documents and in digital GIS format. It is recommended that awareness of this information is promoted so that all members of the Government, ministries, the Makeni city councils, and community are engaged and can communicate about natural hazard and risk issues in their city. The aims of the DRR/DRM recommendations described in this report are to save lives, reduce the number of people impacted, and to reduce the direct losses and economic impact caused by damage and disruption to the built environment from natural hazards – in particular flooding hazard. The DRR/DRM options recommended are presented in terms of a wider holistic strategy at city region scale. The holistic strategy takes into consideration the setting and terrain of the city, with an emphasis placed on understanding the distribution of hazards and risks, communication and community involvement, re-establishing green and environmental solutions throughout the city to manage the risk associated with flood hazard, and providing early warning where possible and providing shelter for impacted people when disaster strikes. Priority 1 – Construction of engineered culverts and clearing of waste from existing drainage This DRR option involves the construction of engineered channels and culverts at selected locations across Makeni and the clearing of waste from exiting manmade and natural drainage channels. It should be noted that the proposed culvert and channel civil engineering works are at discrete locations where major roads cross natural drainage channels. Well-designed culverts and channels at these locations will potentially have a significant impact on flood hazard reduction, offering a possible benefit of nearly $1.5M USD over a 33-year period. Priority 2 – City-Wide Hazard and Risk Communication Cost benefit analysis undertaken on potential city-wide DRR/DRM options indicates that, city-wide hazard and risk communication would be beneficial for Makeni. Establishing a hazard and risk communication program, including formation of a hazard and risk communication team, installation of hazard and risk signage, and establishment of an early warning system for Makeni is beneficial in terms of the risk reduction that can be achieved. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 120 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Priority 3 – Urban Planning and Zoning One of the most effective ways to save lives and reduce losses going forward is to minimise further building in the combined hazard zones. (Map MK- 0018, Page 19). Currently ~10% of Makeni’s population live in these higher hazard zones and this number will increase if further building in these zones is not managed. If further building is allowed to continue in an unmanaged way then the risks associated with flooding will continue to increase. Ift is recommended that further consideration is given to the wider range of DRR/DRM options to help prioritise and inform the implementation of a holistic and sustainable DRR and DRM plan for the city of Makeni. This further work should be undertaken at the next stage when alignment can be made with urban planning. In the next stage, good urban planning should focus on the relationships between buildings, the spaces they create, the people in the communities and their livelihoods and the sustainability and resilience of the urban development. The urban planning should consider the geographic distribution of natural hazard and risk identified in this project. This will help move the city away from a reactive development approach to one that prioritizes the prevention and management of risk and encourages sustainability and resilience as an intrinsic component of the economic development. Makeni should focus on ‘efficient utilization’ of existing safe land within the urban area (low hazard zones) by considering varied urban design tools for densification of safe zones, such as increasing square footage by land- readjustment, building additional floors, infill development, spot zoning etc. based on the specific site condition and land-use. This would allow the city to grow in a more sustainable and resilient way with reduced cost of service delivery for compact city, encouraging public-private partnerships for cost recovery. While establishing zoning, and building regulations for the whole city may seem overwhelming, spot zoning of low risk zones is a feasible approach to the same issue, and this can quite easily be done by demarcating zone along existing natural boundaries (road, drain etc.), and by giving it a special zoning district status for integrated multi-use redevelopment, that can help to densify safer zones. 9.2 Recommendations from Stakeholders Throughout the course of the Project, the Project Team have held workshops in Makeni on two occasions, with further meetings held on an earlier occasion shortly after project commencement. During these workshops, key stakeholders provided a wealth of information to support the Project. The stakeholders also highlighted numerous recommendations for future studies which were beyond the scope of this project. These recommendations included: | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 121 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment • The Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Project was originally intended to cover six cities across Sierra Leone: Freetown, Makeni, Bo, Bonthe, Kenema and Koidu. During the inception stages of the project Bonthe, Kenema and Koidu were removed from the project scope. Numerous key project stakeholders have identified the importance of undertaking a similar natural hazard review and risk assessment in each of these additional cities. • During most project workshops it has been identified that fire is a significant hazard in Sierra Leone. In some cases, it is not possible to ascertain if this relates specifically to wild-fire or man-made fire (either due to slash and burn farming practises or poor-quality electrical systems). Numerous key project stakeholders have called for further investigation into fire hazard and risk in the cities of Sierra Leone. • During the final project workshops, it was demonstrated that the data produced by this project is most useful when viewed and interrogated in a Geographical Information System (GIS). Doing so allows the user to overlay maps, add other data layers for context etc. in addition to producing plans, measuring distances and performing spatial analyses. However, the capacity to use GIS in Sierra Leone is, at present, limited. It is therefore a strong recommendation from both the Project Team and key project stakeholders that GIS training be made available, particularly to those involved in the urban planning process in Makeni. INTEGEMS are well placed to offer such services in Sierra Leone and would welcome the opportunity to discuss the provision of training. The Project Team are extremely grateful to the stakeholders for their time and feedback received throughout the project. 9.3 Recommendations for Hazard and Risk Research and Development for Makeni There remains uncertainty in the spatial distribution and level of flooding hazard and risk in Makeni. This is because the Project analysis assessed the flood hazard and risk at city-scale. Further research and development is required to reduce the uncertainty and to provide information to allow data and evidence based decision making. It is recommended that a natural hazard and risk research and development programme is prepared for Makeni and the surrounding region. Some priority research and development considerations related to natural hazards include the following: • Instrumentation and monitoring to compile important weather data, particularly rainfall data, across the region at higher resolution. • Instrumentation and monitoring to compile important river and drainage level and flow data across the region at higher resolution. This is needed to better calibrate existing and future flood modelling. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 122 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment • Development and calibration of early warning systems related to weather and flooding. All early warning systems require local calibration. • Development and management of databases on the built environment including all buildings and infrastructure. It is recommended that accurate cadastral survey maps showing the extent and ownership of land and location of buildings are established. It is important that this information is maintained in a geographic information system such that the same consistent digital information can be used efficiently for a range of purposes including natural hazard and risk assessment, land-use planning, urban planning as well as for important local and national Government administrative issues such as the collection of taxes. 9.4 Recommendations for Management of Rainfall Run-off in Communities It is recommended that a trial of the Management of Slope Stability in Communities (MoSSaiC) method (Anderson and Holcombe, 2013) is undertaken in Makeni. MoSSaiC has been developed for use in communities that experience heavy rainfall leading to rapid surface run-off, slope instability and flooding. The trial would comprise the implementation of several rainfall run-off and water management techniques at community scale including: • Rooftop rainwater harvesting; • Installation of drainage and soakaways; • Reforestation and revegetation of catchments and drainage channels; • Community engagement and involvement. It is recommended that a trial plan, programme and budget is developed to inform decision makers regarding the cost-benefit of undertaking this water management trial. 9.5 Call for Action It is essential to maintain the momentum and engagement developed throughout this study. This momentum and engagement can only be maintained through proactive implementation of project recommendations on the ground so that stakeholders in the communities can see progress and can see the value of their engagement. There are many related disaster risk reduction and management activities and initiatives being considered and planned across Sierra Leone by a range of Government ministries and international organisations. Co-ordination of these activities and initiatives will be difficult and can provide significant benefits for the country as a whole and for the city of Makeni. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 123 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 124 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment 10 References [1] Abarca Verele de Vreede (2013) Waste Management in Freetown report, WASH consortium. [2] Anderson, M. G. and Holcombe E. (2013). Community-based landslide risk reduction: managing disasters in small steps. ISBN 978- 0-8213-9456-4 — ISBN 978-0-8213-9491-5 (electronic). [3] Labour Force Survey. (2014). https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=G_joCwAAQBAJ&pg=PA13& lpg=PA13&dq=employment+areas+sierra+leone+agriculture&source =bl&ots=P8aSd43Se5&sig=vNtQAhs4yMYwbPeqQsDFX50uma8& hl=en&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwj8r_7kruzSAhUGBcAKHYRx AG4Q6AEINzAF#v=onepage&q=unemployed&f=false National Disaster Risk Management Policy [4] Makeni City Council. (2014). PEFA Self-Assessment Report - http://mofed.gov.sl/PFMRU/MAKENI%20CITY%20COUNCIL%20 PEFA%20SELF%20ASSESSMENT%20REPORT%202014.pdf [5] Nas, T.F. (2016). Cost-Benefit Analysis - Theory and Application. Second Edition, Lexington Books. [6] ONS. (2011). National progress report on the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (2009-2011) http://www.preventionweb.net/files/16241_sle_NationalHFAprogres s_2009-11.pdf. [7] ReliefWeb. (2015). http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/district_profile_ bombali_10_dec_2015am%20(1).pdf [8] Rijke. (2015). http://www.plymouthlawreview.org/vol7/de%20Rijke.pdf [9] Rollinson, H. (2016). Archaean crustal evolution in West Africa: A new synthesis of the Archaean geology in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea and Ivory Coast. Precambrian Research, 281, 1-12. [10] Statistics Sierra Leone (2016) 2015 Population and Housing Census. Summary of results. https://www.statistics.sl/images/StatisticsSL/Documents/final- results_-2015_population_and_housing_census.pdf [11] SOS Children’s Villages (date unknown) - http://www.sos- childrensvillages.org/where-we-help/africa/sierra-leone/makeni [12] United Nations. (2015). ‘Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030’ https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/43291 [13] UNISDR. (2009). ‘2009 UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction’ https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/7817 | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 125 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment [14] UNISDR (2018)- https://www.unisdr.org/files/57399_drrresiliencepublicreview.pdf) [15] UN Habitat (2016), Remaking the urban mosaic: Participatory and inclusive land readjustment, United Nations Human Settlements Programme. Available online: https://unhabitat.org/books/remaking- the-urban-mosaic-participatory-and-inclusive-land-readjustment/ [Accessed 25/09/2018] [16] University San Pablo. (2016). http://awoko.org/2016/01/28/sierra-leone- news-unimakceu-on-strategic-urban-planning-for-makeni- city/?pr=52418&lang=en [17] Workman. A. (2013). Success versus failure in local public goods provision: Council and chiefly governance in post-war Makeni, Sierra Leone. LSE, London http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/702/1/Workman_success_failure_public_goo ds_public.pdf [18] World Bank. (2015). Bangladesh Muli-purpose Disaster Shelter Project, Report No: PAD807. [19] World Bank. (2016). The Cost of Air Pollution – Strengthening the Economic Case for Action. The World Bank and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. [20] World Bank. (2017). Sierra Leone - Rapid damage and loss assessment of August 14th, 2017 landslides and floods in the western area (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/523671510297364577/Si erra-Leone-Rapid-damage-and-loss-assessment-of-August-14th- 2017-landslides-and-floods-in-the-western-area [21] White, R., Turpie, J. and Letley, G. L. (2017). Greening African Cities (No. 26730). World Bank Group. [22] Woods-Ballard, B. et al. (2007). The SUDS Manual. ISBN: 0860176975, 9780860176978. Series: CIRIA; C697. [23] YMCA. (2012). http://www.sierraleoneymca.org/slum-project/ | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page 126 Appendix A Cost Benefit Analysis The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment A1 Cost-Benefit Analysis of DRR/DRM for Makeni A1.1 Introduction This section of the report provides a summary of the key findings from the cost- benefit analysis undertaken to inform the prioritization of the DRR/DRM options recommended for Makeni. The cost-benefit analysis (CBA) concepts used are relatively straightforward: if the net benefits of a proposed DRR/DRM option exceed the net costs then the proposed option is generally considered to be acceptable. Cost-benefit analysis was calculated at city-scale as this is appropriate for the aggregated and modelled data generated by this project. The burden of initial investment in infrastructure and service delivery, potential avenues for public- private partnerships should be explored. It was not possible within the scope and terms of reference of this project to collect data on indirect costs or social benefits or the many other cross-cutting factors beyond the natural hazards considered in this project. A1.2 Cost-Benefit Methodology The methodology for the cost-benefit analysis is described separately in detail in Volume 1 – Methodology and Summary of Results. The benefits of DRR/DRM options are quantified in terms of the reduction in risk (e.g. the value of the building or infrastructure damage avoided or the potential loss of life avoided). No indirect losses, (e.g. losses due to business interruption), are included. The costs of the DRR/DRM options are quantified in terms of the capital and operational expenditure required to implement the proposed measures (e.g. the cost to construct and maintain flood protection measures). The net costs and the net benefits are calculated over an assumed design life of 33 years (i.e. from 2018 to 2050) for all proposed DRR/DRM options. The order in which proposed DRR/DRM options are ranked or prioritized depends on three main decision metrics: • the Net Present Value (NPV); • the Benefit-Cost Ratio (B/C); and • the Internal Rate of Return (IRR). These cost-benefit analysis metrics are calculated over an extended time period but it is necessary to calculate the results in terms of present year cost and benefit values and to use an appropriate discount rate to adjust future costs and benefits to the current year (Nas, 2016). For the purposes of this study the present year is assumed to be 2017 (i.e. the year in which the natural hazard and risk calculations for this project were undertaken) and therefore costs and benefits are all presented | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page A1 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment in terms of USD$ values in 2017. The choice of discount rate for cost-benefit is always uncertain and has a significant impact on the cost-benefit analysis results (Nas, 2017). A discount rate of 6% is used in accordance with recommendations by The World Bank and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (World Bank, 2016) for analysis in low to middle-income countries. A sensitivity analysis is presented to illustrate the sensitivity of the analysis results to the selection of the discount rate. A country-specific value of statistical life (VSL) of USD$100,000 has been used in the cost-benefit analysis to quantify the economic benefit of recommended DRR/DRM options. The assignment of VSL is an uncertain and a sensitive issue and therefore cost-benefit analyses have been undertaken with and without the analysis of the benefit of avoided potential loss of life. The methodology for determining the VSL for the cost-benefit analysis is described separately in Volume 1 – Methodology and Summary of Results. A1.3 Selected DRR/DRM Options for Makeni Cost Benefit Analysis DRR/DRM measures listed in Section 8.2 have been combined into two options for cost benefit analysis to avoid a siloed approach to DRR/DRM. The DRR/DRM measures in each option were selected to be both complementary and appropriate in terms of likely cost and position within the catchment. The Scope of Work for the project requires that Cost-Benefit Analysis is undertaken for five DRR/DRM options in total. Five cost-benefit analyses have been completed as part of the reporting for Freetown. Two additional cost-benefit analyses have been undertaken for Bo city, and two further cost-benefit analyses have been undertaken for Makeni city and are reported below. The following two DRR/DRM options have been selected for Makeni: • Option 1 – Hazard and risk communication: including formation of a hazard and risk communication team, installation of hazard and risk signage across Makeni, and establishment of an early warning system for Makeni. • Option 2 – Engineered channels and culverts and clearing of waste from exiting drainage channels at four critical infrastructure locations across Makeni. The two selected DRR/DRM options for Makeni are similar to those that have been selected and analysed for Bo city. This is because Bo and Makeni face very similar problems, i.e. the major natural hazard is flooding, and the scale and topography of the cities and the type of flooding are very similar. The other potential DRR/DRM options, from a purely qualitative perspective, would not be appropriate for Makeni at this stage. A1.4 Option 1 – Hazard and risk communication Option 1 – A hazard and risk communication program should include formation of a hazard and risk communication team in Makeni to engage widely with local | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page A2 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment communities, installation of hazard and risk signage across Makeni, and establishment of an early warning system for Makeni. The capital and operational costs for this option are summarised in Table 13. The cost of the hazard and risk communication program is estimated to be approximately USD$590,000 including an estimated USD$10,000 to establish a hazard and risk communication team in Makeni and USD$10,000 per annum to maintain the team. USD$50,000 is estimated for the establishment of an early warning system and USD$5,000 per annum for the operation and maintenance of the early warning system for Makeni. USD$5,000 is budgeted for flood hazard signage across Makeni and USD$1,000 per annum for maintenance of the signage. The total undiscounted capital and operational costs for Option 1 – hazard and risk communication across Makeni are summarised in the tables below. Table 13 – Capital and operational costs for Option 1 – Hazard and Risk Communication Cost Item Cost Unit No. Sub-Total (USD$) (USD$) Hazard and risk team set-up 10,000 One-off 1 10,000 Hazard and risk team operations 10,000 Annual 33 330,000 Early warning system set-up 50,000 One-off 1 50,000 Early warning system operations and 5,000 Annual 33 165,000 maintenance Flood hazard signage 5,000 One-off 1 5,000 Signage maintenance 1,000 Annual 33 33,000 593,000 Note: All costs are un-discounted. The benefits of implementation of Option 1 are summarised in terms of the reduction of risk, both in terms of cost of building damage and in terms of reduction of potential loss of life due to flooding. Table 14 – Risk reduction benefits from Option 1 – Hazard and Risk Communication Risk metric Benefit Unit No. Sub-Total (USD$) Annual building loss – flooding - avoided 9,600 Annual 33 316,800 Annual fatalities loss – flooding - avoided 20,000 Annual 33 660,000 916,800 Note: All benefits are un-discounted. A series of cost-benefit analyses have been undertaken to investigate a range of factors that might inform project investment decision makers. It has been | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page A3 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment estimated that hazard and risk communication could result in a reduction of approximately 20% of the total risk from flooding. The analyses have been undertaken using a calculation period of 33 years to coincide with the 2050 timeframe used for the future climate change impact scenario analyses undertaken for this project. A discount rate of 6% is used. The cost-benefit analysis results are presented in terms of the discount rate (DR), net present value (NPV), benefit cost ratio (B/C), and internal rate of return (IRR) in Table 15 below. Table 15 – Cost-Benefit Results for Option 1 – Hazard and Risk Communication No. Analysis NPV B/C IRR Recommendation (USD$) (%) 1.1 Flood risk direct damage cost -150,659 0.5 -ve Consider reduction reduction in potential loss of life in cost benefit analysis 1.2 Flood risk direct damage cost plus 133,946 1.5 24 Establish hazard potential loss of life cost reduction and risk communication program and early warning system These cost-benefit analysis results indicate that establishing a hazard and risk communication program, including formation of a hazard and risk communication team, installation of hazard and risk signage, and establishment of an early warning system for Makeni is beneficial in terms of the risk reduction that can be achieved. In addition to the potential avoided direct damage and financial losses associated with flooding it is estimated that the average annual potential loss of life avoided through hazard and risk communication will be approximately 0.2 lives per year or 1 to 2 lives saved every 5 to 10 years. Based upon these cost- benefit results it is recommended that establishing a hazard and risk communication program and an early warning system for flooding hazard in Makeni should be prioritised. A1.5 Option 2 – Construction of engineered culverts and clearing of waste from existing drainage Option 2 involves the construction of engineered channels and culverts at selected locations across Makeni and the clearing of waste from existing manmade and natural drainage channels. The capital and operational costs for this option are summarised in the table below. It should be noted that the proposed culvert and channel civil engineering works are at discrete locations where major roads cross natural drainage channels. Well- designed culverts and channels at these locations will potentially have a significant impact on flood hazard reduction. The benefits of implementation of Option 2 are summarised in terms of the potential reduction of risk in terms of | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page A4 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment cost of building damage and in terms of reduction of potential loss of life due to flooding. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page A5 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment Table 16 – Capital and operational costs for Option 2 – Construction of engineered culverts and clearing waste from existing channels Cost Item Cost Unit No. Sub-Total (USD$) (USD$) New culverts 20,000 Culvert 10 200,000 Channel preparation works 10,000 Channel 10 100,000 Channel clearance 5,000 Channel 10 50,000 Channel clearance team 5,000 Annual 33 165,000 515,000 Note: All costs are un-discounted. Table 17 – Risk reduction benefits from Option 2 – Construction of engineered culverts and clearing waste from existing channels Risk metric Benefit Unit No. Sub-Total (USD$) Annual building loss – flooding - avoided 14,400 Annual 33 475,200 Annual fatalities loss – flooding - avoided 30,000 Annual 33 990,000 1,465,200 Note: All benefits are un-discounted. It has been estimated that construction of culverts and clearance of waste from existing and manmade drainage channels could result in a reduction of the total risk from flooding in Makeni by approximately 30%. This estimation of risk reduction is very uncertain. The analyses have been undertaken using a calculation period of 33 years to coincide with the 2050 timeframe used for the future climate change impact scenario analyses undertaken for this project. A discount rate of 6% is used. The cost-benefit analysis results are presented in terms of the discount rate (DR), net present value (NPV), benefit cost ratio (B/C), and internal rate of return (IRR) in Table 18 below. Table 18 – Cost-Benefit Results for Option 2 – Construction of engineered culverts and clearing waste from existing channels No. Analysis NPV B/C IRR Recommendation (USD$) (%) 2.1 Flood risk direct damage cost -187,080 0.5 -6 Consider reduction reduction in potential loss of life in cost benefit analysis 2.2 Flood risk direct damage cost plus 239,827 1.6 7 Construct potential loss of life cost reduction engineered culverts and channels and clear waste from existing natural drainage channels | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page A6 The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment These cost-benefit analysis results indicate that construction of new culverts and clearing waste from existing drainage channels at locations across Makeni is beneficial in terms of potential risk reduction. In addition, to the potential reduction in direct damage and financial losses associated with flooding, it is estimated that the average annual potential loss of life avoided through construction of culverts and clearing waste from channels and thereby reducing the potential for flooding will be approximately 0.3 lives per year or 1 to 2 lives saved every 3 to 6 years. Based upon these cost-benefit analysis results it is recommended that construction of new culverts at key infrastructure locations and the clearing of waste from existing drainage channels across Makeni is undertaken to reduce flooding hazard and risk. A1.6 Summary and Recommendations of DRR/DRM Cost-Benefit Analysis Cost-benefit analyses have been undertaken for two of the recommended DRR/DRM options for Makeni. • Option 1 – Hazard and risk communication: including formation and operation of a hazard and risk communication team, installation of hazard and risk signage across Makeni, and establishment of an early warning system for Makeni. • Option 2 – Construction of new culverts and clearing of waste from existing manmade and natural drainage channels at selected locations across Makeni. The cost-benefit analysis results for these two priority DRR/DRM options for Makeni are summarised in the table below. Table 19 – Summary of Cost-Benefit Results for Makeni Option Description Recommendation 1 Hazard and risk communication Establish an early warning system and establish including formation and operation of a a hazard and risk communication program. This hazard and risk communication team, will be a beneficial way to reduce flood risk. installation of hazard and risk signage This DRR/DRM option has a positive NPV and across Makeni, and establishment of an B/C ratio 1.5. early warning system for Makeni. Budget: USD$ 600,000. 2 Construction of culverts and clearing of Construct new culverts at locations where main waste from drainage channels road infrastructure cross drainage channels and clear waste from natural and manmade drainage channels. This will be a beneficial way to reduce flood risk. This DRR/DRM option has a positive NPV and a B/C ratio 1.6. Budget: USD$ 500,000. | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page A7 Appendix B Natural Hazard and Risk Maps for Makeni The World Bank Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard Review and Risk Assessment Final Report (Volume 3 of 5): Makeni City Hazard and Risk Assessment B1 List of Maps Map Description No. 0001 Makeni | Overview 0002 Makeni | Approximate Extent of Urban and Peri-Urban Areas 0003 Makeni | Built Environment Density 0004 Makeni | Qualitative Flood Hazard 0005 Makeni | Qualitative Flood Risk 0006 Makeni | Qualitative Landslide Susceptibility/Hazard 0007 Makeni | Qualitative Landslide Risk 0008 Makeni | Quantitative Flood Hazard (20 Year Flood) 0009 Makeni | Quantitative Flood Hazard (100 Year Flood) 0010 Makeni | Quantitative Flood Hazard (1500 Year Flood) 0011 Makeni | Quantitative Flood Risk (Direct Loss to Buildings) 0012 Makeni | Quantitative Flood Risk (Direct Loss to Buildings relative to ward area) 0013 Makeni | Quantitative Flood Risk (no. Fatalities) 0014 Makeni | Quantitative Flood Risk (no. Fatalities relative to ward area) 0015 Makeni | Quantitative Flood Risk (no. People Affected) 0016 Makeni | Quantitative Flood Risk (no. People Affected Relative to Ward Area) 0017 Makeni | Overview of Catchments for DRR Recommendations 0018 Makeni | Recommended Hazard Zones 0019 Makeni | Existing Development in Hazard Zones 0020 Makeni | Estimated no. Buildings in Proposed Hazard Zones (by Catchment) 0021 Makeni | Estimated no. Buildings in Proposed Hazard Zones (2050 target) (by Catchment) 0022 Makeni | Estimated no. Buildings in Proposed Hazard Zones (by Ward) 0023 Makeni | Estimated no. Buildings in Proposed Hazard Zones (2050 target) (by Ward) 0024 Makeni | Estimated Population in Proposed Hazard Zones (by Catchment) 0025 Makeni | Estimated Population in Proposed Hazard Zones (2050 target) (by Catchment) 0026 Makeni | Estimated Population in Proposed Hazard Zones (by Ward) 0027 Makeni | Estimated Population in Proposed Hazard Zones (2050 target) (by Ward) 0028 Makeni | Indicative Locations of Proposed Flood Warning Signage and Attenuation Ponds 0029 Makeni | Gridded Modelled Population 0030 Makeni | Gridded Modelled Building Value 0031 Makeni | Gridded Modelled Road Value | Issue | 27 September 2018 Page B1 Makeni | Overview 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title General map labels Makeni | Overview Wards Main urbanized areas Main watercourses SIERRA LEONE Kilometers Primary road (yellow line) 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. LIBERIA MK-0001 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Approximate Extent of Urban and Peri-Urban Areas 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Approximate spatial General map labels Approximate spatial extent of urban and peri-urban areas Makeni | Approximate has been estimated from available satellite imagery using extent of urban and Wards Google Earth Pro. Extent of Urban and Peri- peri-urban areas Urban Areas 2003 Main urbanized areas 2009 Main watercourses SIERRA LEONE Kilometers 2017 Primary road (yellow line) 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. LIBERIA MK-0002 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Built Environment Density 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Built environment General map labels Built environment density maps represent the proportion of Makeni | Built Environment each 30m2 grid unit which is covered by building and/or density Wards road, where 100% means that the entirety of the area is Density < 20% covered by buildings and/or road, and 0% means that none Main urbanized areas of the area is covered by buildings and/or roads. 20 - 40% Main watercourses SIERRA LEONE > 40% Kilometers Primary road (yellow line) 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. LIBERIA MK-0003 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Qualitative Flood Hazard 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Flood hazard General map labels Each qualitative hazard assessment is a general appraisal Makeni | Qualitative Flood of the likelihood of the given area to experience a particular Very low (unshaded) Wards hazard. Qualitative flood hazard was assessed based on the Hazard spatial extent of the modelled flood hazard levels and return Low Main urbanized areas periods which have been produced for the quantitative flood hazard assessment. Medium Main watercourses SIERRA LEONE Kilometers High Primary road (yellow line) 0 0.5 1 2 Very high Map no. LIBERIA MK-0004 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Qualitative Flood Risk 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Flood risk General map labels The qualitative assessment of flood hazard is combined with Makeni | Qualitative Flood the assessment of exposure/vulnerability (expressed as the Very low (unshaded) Wards density of the built environment) to produce qualitative Risk estimates of risk. Low Main urbanized areas Medium Main watercourses SIERRA LEONE Kilometers High Primary road (yellow line) 0 0.5 1 2 Very high Map no. LIBERIA MK-0005 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Qualitative Landslide Susceptibility/Hazard 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Landslide General map labels Each qualitative hazard assessment is a general appraisal Makeni | Qualitative of the likelihood of the given area to experience a particular susceptibility/hazard Wards hazard. Qualitative landslide hazard was assessed using a Landslide Very low (unshaded) weighted scoring system, which classified and then Susceptibility/Hazard Main urbanized areas combined slope angle and a built environment density factor with a weighting of 75:25. Low Main watercourses SIERRA LEONE This map is titled Landslide Susceptibility/Hazard because to Medium realistically represent the nature of landslides, potential Kilometers Primary road (yellow landslide flow paths need to be considered. Potential flow High line) 0 0.5 1 2 paths are considered as part of the quantitative landslide hazard assessment (Freetown only). Map no. Very high MK-0006 LIBERIA Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Qualitative Landslide Risk 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Landslide risk General map labels The qualitative assessment of landslide hazard is combined Makeni | Qualitative with the assessment of exposure/vulnerability (expressed as Very low (unshaded) Wards the density of the built environment) to produce qualitative Landslide Risk estimates of risk. Low Main urbanized areas Medium Main watercourses SIERRA LEONE Kilometers High Primary road (yellow line) 0 0.5 1 2 Very high Map no. LIBERIA MK-0007 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Quantitative Flood Hazard (20 Year Flood) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Modelled flood water General map labels Flood hazard is expressed in terms of return period. A return Makeni | Quantitative Flood period is defined as a measure of the probability of an event depth (20 year flood) Wards occurring, expressed in years. For example, an event with a Hazard (20 Year Flood) < 0.2m (unshaded) 1% likelihood of occurring each year would have a return Main urbanized areas period of 100 years. 0.2 - 1.0m Main watercourses SIERRA LEONE 1.0 - 3.0m Kilometers Primary road (yellow 3.0 - 5.0m line) 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. > 5.0m MK-0008 LIBERIA Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Quantitative Flood Hazard (100 Year Flood) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Modelled flood water General map labels Flood hazard is expressed in terms of return period. A return Makeni | Quantitative Flood period is defined as a measure of the probability of an event depth (100 year flood) Wards occurring, expressed in years. For example, an event with a Hazard (100 Year Flood) < 0.2m (unshaded) 1% likelihood of occurring each year would have a return Main urbanized areas period of 100 years. 0.2 - 1.0m Main watercourses SIERRA LEONE 1.0 - 3.0m Kilometers Primary road (yellow 3.0 - 5.0m line) 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. > 5.0m MK-0009 LIBERIA Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Quantitative Flood Hazard (1500 Year Flood) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Modelled flood water General map labels Flood hazard is expressed in terms of return period. A return Makeni | Quantitative Flood period is defined as a measure of the probability of an event depth (1500 year flood) Wards occurring, expressed in years. For example, an event with a Hazard (1500 Year Flood) < 0.2m (unshaded) 1% likelihood of occurring each year would have a return Main urbanized areas period of 100 years. 0.2 - 1.0m Main watercourses SIERRA LEONE 1.0 - 3.0m Kilometers Primary road (yellow 3.0 - 5.0m line) 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. > 5.0m MK-0010 LIBERIA Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Quantitative Flood Risk (Direct Loss to Buildings) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Modelled average annual General map labels This map shows natural hazard-risk as the sum of risk within Makeni | Quantitative Flood each administrative unit (Wards). loss to buildings Wards Risk (Direct Loss to < $5,000 Buildings) Main urbanized areas $5,000 - $10,000 SIERRA LEONE $10,000 - $50,000 Kilometers $50,000 - $100,000 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. > $100,000 MK-0011 LIBERIA Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Quantitative Flood Risk (Direct Loss to Buildings Relative to Ward Area) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Modelled average annual General map labels This map shows natural hazard-risk as the sum of risk within Makeni | Quantitative Flood each administrative unit (Wards) divided by Ward area, loss to buildings relative Wards giving an indication of where within the city the risk is Risk (Direct Loss to to ward area highest in terms of risk per unit area. Buildings Relative to Ward Lowest relative risk Main urbanized areas Area) SIERRA LEONE Kilometers 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. LIBERIA MK-0012 Highest relative risk Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Quantitative Flood Risk (no. Fatalities) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Modelled average General map labels This map shows natural hazard-risk as the sum of risk within Makeni | Quantitative Flood each administrative unit (Wards). annual no. fatalities Wards Risk (no. Fatalities) < 0.05 Main urbanized areas 0.05 - 0.1 SIERRA LEONE 0.1 - 0.5 Kilometers 0.5 - 1.0 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. > 1.0 MK-0013 LIBERIA Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Quantitative Flood Risk (no. Fatalities Relative to Ward Area) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Modelled average annual General map labels This map shows natural hazard-risk as the sum of risk within Makeni | Quantitative Flood each administrative unit (Wards) divided by Ward area, no. fatalities relative to Wards giving an indication of where within the city the risk is Risk (no. Fatalities Relative ward area highest in terms of risk per unit area. to Ward Area) Lowest relative risk Main urbanized areas SIERRA LEONE Kilometers 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. LIBERIA MK-0014 Highest relative risk Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Quantitative Flood Risk (no. People Affected) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Modelled average General map labels This map shows natural hazard-risk as the sum of risk within Makeni | Quantitative Flood each administrative unit (Wards). annual no. people Wards Risk (no. People Affected) affected <5 Main urbanized areas 5 - 10 SIERRA LEONE Kilometers 10 - 50 0 0.5 1 2 50 - 100 Map no. LIBERIA MK-0015 > 100 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Quantitative Flood Risk (no. People Affected Relative to Ward Area) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Modelled average annual General map labels This map shows natural hazard-risk as the sum of risk within Makeni | Quantitative Flood each administrative unit (Wards) divided by Ward area, no. people affected Wards giving an indication of where within the city the risk is Risk (no. People Affected relative to ward area highest in terms of risk per unit area. Relative to Ward Area) Main urbanized areas Lowest relative risk SIERRA LEONE Kilometers 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. LIBERIA MK-0016 Highest relative risk Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Overview of Catchments for DRR Recommendations 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana C7 Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 C6 C1 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' C3 Masongbo 'A' C5 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' C4 C2 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title General map labels Additional information and a full description of proposed Makeni | Overview of DRR measures for Makeni is available in the accompanying Wards report (Volume 3). Catchments for DRR Recommendations Main urbanized areas Catchments SIERRA LEONE Kilometers Main watercourses 0 0.5 1 2 Primary road (yellow Map no. line) LIBERIA MK-0017 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Combined Hazard Zones 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana C7 Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 C6 C1 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' C3 Masongbo 'A' C5 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' C4 C2 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Combined Hazard Zones General map labels Using the results of the quantitative natural hazard Makeni | Combined Hazard assessments it is possible to define hazard zones for Combined Hazard Wards Makeni, which represent areas that have been spatially Zones Zones defined by: the spatial extent of a 100-year flood. Combined Hazard Main urbanized areas Furthermore, it is reasonable to extend the combined hazard Zones (year 2050) zones for a year 2050 scenario to account for the anticipated Catchments influence of climate change. The year 2050 combined SIERRA LEONE hazard zones have been defined by: the spatial extent of a 100-year flood (accounting for climate change impacts). Kilometers Main watercourses 0 0.5 1 2 Primary road (yellow Additional information and a full description of proposed line) DRR measures for Makeni is available in the accompanying Map no. report (Volume 3). MK-0018 LIBERIA Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Existing Development in Combined Hazard Zones 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana C7 Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 C6 C1 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' C3 Masongbo 'A' C5 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' C4 C2 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Combined Hazard Zones General map labels Using the results of the quantitative natural hazard Makeni | Existing assessments it is possible to define hazard zones for Existing development Wards Makeni, which represent areas that have been spatially Development in Combined within the Combined defined by: the spatial extent of a 100-year flood. Hazard Zones Hazard Zones Main urbanized areas Furthermore, it is reasonable to extend the combined hazard Existing development zones for a year 2050 scenario to account for the anticipated within the Combined Catchments influence of climate change. The year 2050 combined SIERRA LEONE Hazard Zones (year hazard zones have been defined by: the spatial extent of a 100-year flood (accounting for climate change impacts). Kilometers 2050) Main watercourses 0 0.5 1 2 Primary road (yellow Additional information and a full description of proposed line) DRR measures for Makeni is available in the accompanying Map no. report (Volume 3). MK-0019 LIBERIA Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Estimated no. Buildings in Proposed Hazard Zones (by Catchment) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 C7 985000 C6 C1 982500 C3 C5 980000 C4 C2 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Estimated no. General map labels Additional information and a full description of proposed Makeni | Estimated no. DRR measures for Makeni is available in the accompanying buildings within the Boundary catchment, report (Volume 3). Buildings in Proposed proposed Hazard not included Zone Hazard Zones (by < 50 Catchments Catchment) SIERRA LEONE 50 - 100 Kilometers 100 - 500 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. 500 - 1,000 LIBERIA MK-0020 > 1,000 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Estimated no. Buildings in Proposed Hazard Zones (2050 target) (by Catchment) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 C7 985000 C6 C1 982500 C3 C5 980000 C4 C2 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Estimated no. General map labels Additional information and a full description of proposed Makeni | Estimated no. DRR measures for Makeni is available in the accompanying buildings within the Boundary catchment, report (Volume 3). Buildings in Proposed proposed Hazard not included Zone (2050 target) Hazard Zones (2050 target) < 50 Catchments (by Catchment) SIERRA LEONE 50 - 100 Kilometers 100 - 500 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. 500 - 1,000 LIBERIA MK-0021 > 1,000 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Estimated no. Buildings in Proposed Hazard Zones (by Ward) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Estimated no. General map labels Additional information and a full description of proposed Makeni | Estimated no. DRR measures for Makeni is available in the accompanying buildings within the Wards report (Volume 3). Buildings in Proposed proposed Hazard Zone Hazard Zones (by Ward) Main urbanized areas < 50 SIERRA LEONE 50 - 100 Kilometers 100 - 500 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. 500 - 1,000 LIBERIA MK-0022 > 1,000 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Estimated no. Buildings in Proposed Hazard Zones (2050 target) (by Ward) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Estimated no. General map labels Additional information and a full description of proposed Makeni | Estimated no. DRR measures for Makeni is available in the accompanying buildings within the Wards report (Volume 3). Buildings in Proposed proposed Hazard Zone (2050 target) Hazard Zones (2050 target) Main urbanized areas < 50 (by Ward) SIERRA LEONE 50 - 100 Kilometers 100 - 500 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. 500 - 1,000 LIBERIA MK-0023 > 1,000 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Estimated Population in Proposed Hazard Zones (by Catchment) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 C7 985000 C6 C1 982500 C3 C5 980000 C4 C2 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Estimated population General map labels Additional information and a full description of proposed Makeni | Estimated DRR measures for Makeni is available in the accompanying within the proposed Boundary catchment, report (Volume 3). Population in Proposed Hazard Zone not included Hazard Zones (by < 100 Catchments Catchment) 100 - 500 SIERRA LEONE Kilometers 500 - 1,000 0 0.5 1 2 1,000 - 5,000 Map no. LIBERIA MK-0024 > 5,000 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Estimated Population in Proposed Hazard Zones (2050 target) (by Catchment) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 C7 985000 C6 C1 982500 C3 C5 980000 C4 C2 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Estimated population General map labels Additional information and a full description of proposed Makeni | Estimated DRR measures for Makeni is available in the accompanying within the proposed Boundary catchment, report (Volume 3). Population in Proposed Hazard Zone (2050 not included target) Hazard Zones (2050 target) < 100 Catchments (by Catchment) SIERRA LEONE 100 - 500 Kilometers 500 - 1,000 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. 1,000 - 5,000 LIBERIA MK-0025 > 5,000 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Estimated Population in Proposed Hazard Zones (by Ward) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Estimated population General map labels Additional information and a full description of proposed Makeni | Estimated DRR measures for Makeni is available in the accompanying within the proposed Wards report (Volume 3). Population in Proposed Hazard Zone Hazard Zones (by Ward) < 100 Main urbanized areas 100 - 500 SIERRA LEONE Kilometers 500 - 1,000 0 0.5 1 2 1,000 - 5,000 Map no. LIBERIA MK-0026 > 5,000 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Estimated Population in Proposed Hazard Zones (2050 target) (by Ward) 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Estimated population General map labels Additional information and a full description of proposed Makeni | Estimated DRR measures for Makeni is available in the accompanying within the proposed Wards report (Volume 3). Population in Proposed Hazard Zone (2050 target) Hazard Zones (2050 target) Main urbanized areas < 100 (by Ward) SIERRA LEONE 100 - 500 Kilometers 500 - 1,000 0 0.5 1 2 Map no. 1,000 - 5,000 LIBERIA MK-0027 > 5,000 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Indicative Locations of Proposed Flood Warning Signage and Attenuation Ponds 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana C7 Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 C6 C1 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' C3 Masongbo 'A' C5 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' C4 C2 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title DRR measures General map labels Additional information and a full description of proposed Makeni | Indicative DRR measures for Makeni is available in the accompanying Locations of Proposed # * ! Indicative locations of proposed flood warning signage Wards Main urbanized areas report (Volume 3). Flood Warning Signage and Attenuation Ponds Indicative locations for flood attenuation Catchments SIERRA LEONE ponds Kilometers Main watercourses Additional information 0 0.5 1 2 100 year flood extent Primary road (yellow Map no. line) LIBERIA MK-0028 100 year flood extent (estimated 2050) Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Gridded Modelled Population 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Gridded modelled General map labels Population data for this project is taken from the 2015 Sierra Makeni | Gridded Modelled Leone Census (Statistics Sierra Leone, 2016). This census population (people/sq. Wards information is available disaggregated to Chiefdom level Population km) only. It was necessary to statistically model the sub- < 1,000 Main urbanized areas Chiefdom level distribution of the population. This was done using the built environment density as a proxy. The 1,000 - 5,000 Main watercourses methodology for distributing population across the city is SIERRA LEONE described in the accompanying Volume 1 Report. Primary road (yellow Kilometers 5,000 - 10,000 line) 0 0.5 1 2 10,000 - 25,000 Map no. LIBERIA MK-0029 > 25,000 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Gridded Modelled Building Value 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Gridded modelled building General map labels Buildings location data for this project have been sourced Makeni | Gridded Modelled from OpenStreetMap (OSM, www.openstreetmap.org). The value (USD/sq. km) Wards methodology for the development of the building exposure Building Value < $50,000,000 model is described in the accompanying Volume 1 Report. Main urbanized areas $50,000,000 - Information on the replacement value of buildings is $100,000,000 Main watercourses summarized in the DaLA Report (World Bank, 2017). Values SIERRA LEONE presented here are the gridded sum of building value per $100,000,000 - Primary road (yellow 30m grid square based on the average building value Kilometers $250,000,000 line) estimate. Further details are included in the accompanying 0 0.5 1 2 $250,000,000 - Volume 1 Report. Map no. $500,000,000 LIBERIA MK-0030 > $500,000,000 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup Makeni | Gridded Modelled Road Value 820000 822500 825000 827500 830000 ° ! 987500 1. Makari Gbanti - Mina Gbanti Section 2. Bombali Sebora - Wusum Ward 3. Bombali Sebora - Banana Ward 4. Makari Gbanti - Masuba Ward Gborbana Mabanta Binkolo 985000 4 Bombali Sebora - Rogbane Ward 1 2 Rosint Bombali Sebora - Teko Ward Magbenteh 3 982500 Bombali Sebora - Mayanka, Maslasie, Market Wards Bombali Sebora - Kagbaran Dokom 'A' Masongbo 'A' 980000 Kagbaran Dokom 'B' 977500 Legend Additional information GUINEA Title Gridded modelled road General map labels OpenStreetMap is the primary source of information about Makeni | Gridded Modelled the location and nature of roads for this study. The Global value (USD/sq. km) Wards Roads Open Access Data Set (gROADS) was also Road Value < $500,000 consulted, however was found to be less complete than the Main urbanized areas OSM roads dataset. The one freight-only railway in Sierra $500,000 - Leone is not considered by this study. $1,000,000 Main watercourses SIERRA LEONE The methodology for assigning value to roads across the $1,000,000 - Kilometers city is described in the accompanying Volume 1 Report. $2,500,000 0 0.5 1 2 $2,500,000 - Map no. $5,000,000 LIBERIA MK-0031 > $5,000,000 Client The World Bank Job Title Scale at A3 Coordinate System Sierra Leone Multi-City Hazard and 1:40,000 WGS 1984 UTM Zone 28N Risk Assessment Issue Date By Chkd Appd Job No Map Status I2 2018-09-10 PGR AM MF 252746-00 Issue © Arup