Beyond Transition -- 2007 . · 14 (2007) http://www.worldbank.org/transitionnewsletter www.cefir.ru : 14 15 : 16 3 17 , 5 , 18 : 7 : , 19 Ma 8 : ? , 21 9 22 , , 10 11 24 25 12 27 ? , , 13 30 2 · , , , , , , . . "Beyond Transition", , , , . , , , . . 58 , , -- , . ( ) , . , , . ( ) , , , -- . , . , -- , , , , -- . , , , , . , -- . , , , , , . , , . , , . , , . " " , (, ), , (, ). , Beyond Transition · -- 2007 : · 3 , 11% . , 11% , , . , . , , 250 . . : 28 ., , · -- 3,2 . ( -- 250 . ) , , 15,82 ., -- 3,2 ., -- 28. , , , . ( . , , ), · , , , ( 2480% ), , " " , , . , -- . · . , , , , , . , -- , , , : , -- , 30% 1. 58 (. 1), 15 (). . % 100 000 1000 1000 . , 8,8 2,11 4,42 161 -- ( 6,1 7,59 41,23 111 , ), 30,5 13,87 73,85 1351 . 52,6 23,36 / / 30,3 11,15 / 1923 8,3 3,14 / / 43,5 28,25 / / , 22 3,39 58,86 1166 / 8,17 773,87 / . / 2,24 54,11 1892 18 58 ( 29,7 10,28 / / , , , ) 42,1 2,19 / / 16,9 8,50 264,51 1114 4 · : 2% , . . , . -- · , , , , , . , , 30% 10 , . , , , , . , , ( , , ) , , , . , . . , · ( ), , . · . . : · , , . · , , . , , . . , · , . , , , . , , , , , , , , , . , , , . -- , , , . . · , 2. , , (Asli Demirguc Kunt) -- , , . , , . (% "Barriers to Access: Measurement and Impact" (. 5) .) ( ) , , , . ABCDE, , 2007 . 2,03 214,29 9,64 (Thorsten · 2,00 14,74 4,83 Beck) , 3,42 14,24 4,88 (Maria Soledad Martinez Peria) "Banking 3,43 3,90 2,42 Services for Everyone? Barriers to Bank . 3,13 10,22 1,00 Access and Use around the World", 2006 . , 2,46 34,53 3,31 (http://go.worldbank.org/KXNIZEVDB0). 3,29 4,77 5,66 , 4,25 6,31 2,41 , 3,64 10,26 1,75 "Finance for All? Policies and Pitfalls in Expanding Access", 2,13 1,13 1,13 . BT Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 5 , , . . , ; , , , ; ? · . , , , . , , 20% , . , , , , . , 40% -- . , , 60% . 3 -- , -- , . 2 . . , , . , ? . , , , , . , , , . , -- , , -- , . . -- ? -- , (, " ", . ) , , , , . , . . : · , , , , , , . . , , 1960 2005 . , 3% ( ). 2% , 1% , : · 0 , 11% 22% 33% 65% , 1960 6 · : ; · , , ; , · . . . , (CGE), , 2002 ., . , , 50% , . . , , . , , , , " ". . , . , , , . . . , : , (Ross Levine) -- · ,, . (Asli Demirguc Kunt) -- , , ; . . · (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTABC , , DESLO2007/Resources/DemirgucLevinepape ; r.pdf) 2007 . · , ABCDE . , , . . , . "", . 31. BT , 2005 ( ) 5,275 4,265 4,426 / 4,916 5,265 6,092 3,981 / / 4,314 3,990 4,499 / / 5,418 5,545 4,633 / 6,430 4,907 5,593 2,887 4,758 / 4,970 5,343 5,358 5,075 4,658 3,581 3,613 5,111 4,805 / 4,848 5,351 4,380 6,174 3,890 5,091 4,855 5,454 4,605 / 5,028 5,352 2,344 4,707 / 4,350 5,198 5,378 6,308 5,008 . 5,989 4,990 4,622 6,081 6,615 0 10, -- . , , : www.financial indicators.org. : Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 7 : . . 10% , , , . , -- , , . . , . . , -- , ? : . , , : , . , , , . , , , . , , , . , , , . , , 2005 . , , 20 , , , , BankScope, . , , , , . (, , . , , , .) , , , , , . , . , . , ? . , , , , . , . . , . , , (Paul Wachtel) -- , , , ; . . (Rainer Haselmann) -- . . , . "Comparative Economic . Studies", 2007, : , http: //ssrn.com/abstract=990018. . , , , . , . . BT 8 · : , , 7,5 11,3 .. Ma 1990 . EA 55% ( . 1997--2000 .). , : . KBC, -- Erste , , HVB Group, -- Societe , . Generale -- Unicredito . 1995 2002 . 104 Italiano. : , , EA 3,94% , 18 33%. , -- . 4,18%, . , , . , . ? , 22 25 EA, , 104 (. ). . 1995 2002 . , . 70 . (), (. ). . . EA , , , Heritage ( , , Foundation, , , , , ), . ( ), -- 13% 1995 . 39% 2002 . ? , , -- -- . 2002 . . 1995 . 1990 . 72 , 21 EA, 77 . , . , , , 1995 2002 . 1995 2002 ., , , 45,00% . . , 1995 2002 . , 40,00% , 35,00% -- 7,5-- 30,00% 11,3 . , 25,00% , 20,00% , , 15,00% . , 10,00% ,-- , , 5,00% -- . , , -- 0,00% , 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 30% ( 2000--2003 .), . : Micco, Panizza, Yanez Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 9 . , 1995 2002 . , 1995 2002 , . , . 13,0% 35,7% / 59,1 % . , 0,0 % 9,5 % , , 8,2 % 51,7 % ? 80,7 % 72,7 % . , , , , / 36,2 % 12,6 % 20,0 % / 20,8 % . . "" 18,9 % 91,3 % / 18,3 % 0,0 % 26,5 % (Robert Cull) Ma , (Marea Soledad 2,0 % 15,6 % Martenez Perea) -- 8,7 % 81,5 % , 0,0 % 6,8 % : Micco, Panizza, Yanez (2006) . , , . : , . : http://go.world % bank.org/2DQT70LK00 (WPS 4128). BT , (), , , , ( , ). . , , , . . , 1995 -- 2005 . , , . , . , () , . , . , , -- , . , , -- (. ). . , . , , . . -- -- 2005 . ( % ) . (Peter Haiss) -- , 43,62 44,49 5,12 22,21 71,82 , Austria Creditanstalt; 73,54 60,80 35,25 55,36 151,40 (Bettina Hagmayr) -- 19,29 11,50 19,82 9,12 40,44 . , 56,55 26,15 44,60 50,77 121,52 . 113,65 84,84 67,97 99,48 252,30 . : http://www.wu : IFS, BIS, BSE, FIBV, SSE wien.ac.at/europainstitut/forschung/nexus. BT 10 · : , , "" , 1998 ., , , . . , , . . , . . . ( ) . , . . , , . , , . , . , , , . , . ( ) , -- , . , , . ( , , ), . . -- , , , 1990 ., . , . . , , , , , (11% 5%, ). . , . 1990 . . , 1994 . , , . , , . , . . . 1995 . , , (William Pyle) -- , 1998 . , ; (Koen Schoors) -- , -- , " MMM -- " ; -- . , . , . . : http: //ssrn.com/abstract=965452 BT Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 11 , -- . . , , , . , , , : · , . , , . 74 1994 . 21. , , , . , , . , -- 60% · 70% . , . . , , . , , , . . 2003 . (. ). · 2007 . , . 2003 . 12%. · . -- , , -- . , , . , . . . , 20 . , , . , 2005 . , 70 . . 60 . . . . . 50 . / 40 . , 50 . . (Era Dabla Norris) -- . , 40 . . , . . (Holger Floerkemeier) -- , 30 . . . . , 20 . . / . , '06 10 . . '04 '05 0 . : 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/lon / gres.cf?sk=20981.0 BT 12 · : ? , , : , " , 2001 . · " . 1990 ., , . 7% , . , , . ; , · , , 2003 . . ; , , 90% ; . . ; 20% , · , . (. ). . , · , , , . , : 18 , . , · . , , , 1% · , . , , ( 229 . 1994 .), · . . · , . ( 10% 2005 .), . · , ? , . , . , 10% 2004 . 15% 2005 . . , , , , , 1996, 2005 . . (% ) , , . 1996 2005 1996 2005 (Andreas Billmeier) , 3,3 15,0 6,7 16,5 (Shuang Ding) -- 5,1 38,6 9,5 30,3 , . , , , , . ( ) 36,5 39,0 49,7 55,4 ( .) 11,8 54,1 21,6 47,6 . . : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/lon gres.cfm?sk=19216.0 BT Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 13 ? , , , , -- , . ( ) , · 14,2 . , , . , , . , , , , . , . . . , · , , , . , , , . 14,2 .. . . , , , , ? . , . , · , . . , ? , , . , , . , --, . , , . : , · , , , , , , , , . -- . · . : , . . , , , , . , , (Augusto de la Tor . re) -- ; (Juan : Carlos Gozzi) -- , ; (Sergio . Schmukler) -- · . , . . Journal of Banking and Finance, 31:6, , 2007 . , : http://www.worldbank.org/ . . laccapitalmarkets. BT 14 · : , () 1996 ., , 2% -- , . . 1998 . , -- 1998 . , 40% -- , . 2001 . , 35 , . -- 55 , 2006 . -- . 587 282 . . , , ( 330 . 16 ., ) 0,5% ( : , -- 70%). , " " ( . , ). , -- . -- . (. . ), , . , , ? -- . , -- , . , . . , , , , , , . . (. . 2006 ., ) (. . 1998 . 23% , . ). -- , , 100 000 95722 . . 80 000 . : 60 000 53985 -- , UBS AG 40 000 35469 , , 16267 17577 , . 20 000 11250 9821 7681 10427 7832 3269 6490 , 1029 1243 1058 2047 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 . " " . BT Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 15 () , , 1990 . , ; . , · -- , (1664 . -- ), , , "" . 1993 . : 1000 , · ; : , 1995 . . , . , ; , , · , . : , . -- , , . . , () -- , , , . ; . 1997 . 75% "" · : . , . . , . . , , , , , , : . . , · : , ; , ? · , , ; . , , · . , " , , ", , -- : , 1% -- , , , , , 0,3%; . · . , , (Zuzana Fungaco , va) -- . , , ; CERGE EI, , . · : ."Canthemarket 5,5% fix a wrong administrative decision? Massive , , delisting on the Prague Stock Exchange" . , , 5,7% , : http://www.cergeei.cz/pdf/wp/ . Wp335.pdf BT 16 · : , (1650 , -- 1990 . . ), , (529 . ), . " " 1998 . (4900 7600 . , 2%. 2004 . ). , , , 100% 4 2004 . 1000% . , 2007 . . , . , , . , -- , , , , , ( 22%) , , ( ), 4 . . , -- . . 60 (ADR) 2004 . 1000% (GDR) , (), : (17%), , -- 1996 . (14%), , 2006 . (11%), . . (9%), , 95% (6%), (5%). 2008--2010 . . . , , Standard & Poor's, , " " . , . , . . . -- " . , , " , , , 77 . , . . , , , , , , . 4 . . . ( ) -- , . Millennium Capital, 1000% 2007 . -- (EERC). , , -- 2007 . . , , 5,5 . . . BT Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 17 . 2000 . 25% , , . : , . , , . , , , . , , , . , , , . , , , , . , , -- . -- , ( , , ). 66--117 ( 1975 2000 . ) , . 1975 2000 ., : 1975 . , , · , . , . ; . , , , -- 1975 . , , , , , . . , , , , , , -- , , . . , · , , , . , -- . , 1 ( ) , 7 ( , , , , 75% ), . . "7" , . · . . . , (Philip Keefer) -- , : , . , · , . . : , www.econ.worldbank.org BT 18 · : , , 1980 . . 2004 . 1671 6% -- , . . . , 5556 . , 1990 ., 1997--2002 ., (. ). , : . · , , . , , () . . . , . , , · . , : , -- . -- , . " . ", · . , / , , , . , , , MIT . , : -- -- . , . , , . . , -- . , : , , , , , , . , 1990 2004 . , ($/ ) , , . . . (Jiandong Ju) -- 1990 165 1564 ; 756 1541 (Shang Jin Wei) -- , 2000 1204 2486 . 1668 3680 (NBER). 2004 1120 1382 NBER. 1671 5556 , . http://www.nber.org/ papers/w13148 (WP 13148). BT Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 19 : , 2025 . · . , 65 -- 1990 . 13%. 2025 . . . 2000 ., , 47,4 ., "" . , , , , , , ; , . , · , " " -- . , -- , -- , , , . 5000 . , 2000 2005 ., 16 -- , , , -- , , , . , . . -- , · : , , , , 800 000 . , , , : 65 . 2025 . · , , , 1990 2000 . , , 15%. , , , . 24% . ; 22% , 65 . 2025 . · -- 19%. ( , , 15%. , . ) . , 47% , . , , , , , . , , . , ? . , . · : : , · , -- , , , . -- , , ; 20 · , 30--50%. , , , , -- . , , , , , . , , , . 2020 ., 2005 ., 90%. , . -- , . ( 2% ) , , , , , , , -- , , , . , . , , . , . 5% . , · , , , 5% . , -- (10% , , , ), -- (PISA), . 0,5 1% . -- , , , -- , , 20%, 2 4% . . , , , , . , . -- , , . , . -- . · , , , -- , , (, , ) -- ; . , ; , . , . , . , , · , : , . . · . , , 2025 . , , -- , , , , -- 2000 2025 . , . 45 42 38 40 35 35 33 30 27 25 18 20 (Mukesh Chawla) 14 15 10 (Gordon Betcherman) -- 5 2 0 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 (Arup Banerji) 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 15 14 13 12 11 20 18 17 25 24 30 , . : http://go.world . . % bank.org/O0Q06F6QK0. BT Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 21 : ? , , , . , . , . , . ? , , , . 50% " . 18 34 , , , , , 1989 . " (LiTS) 29 . " : " (, 35% ) 65 . , ; . ; , ; , . . (. 1). , 77% , -- , 10% +M. . (), , () , . (+M). . , , , (65%) , 40%. , 100%. (65+) +M . , , . , , , +M. . , ( 40--50 70% ), . 1. ... 22% . 100 90 . 80 ? 70 60 . 10% 50 40 , 20% 30 20 : , 10 . 0 ( 2), , . . 54% +M , ? 22 · " , 2. " , , : (, , 20% ) . 100 , 90 80 70 15 . 60 50 . 40 : 30 , 20 . 10 0 , , . . , , , 1989 . , , . , -- -- , . . , -- . . , . , 67% (Peter Sanfey), , . (Franklin Steves) , (Utku Teksoz) -- . . , , , , 75% , . . .: 1989 . . http://www.ebrd.org/pubs/econo/lit.htm BT 2007--2010 . , . . . , , , , , , -- . 210--220 ., , . , , : 23% 2006 . 13% 2010 . , . , "", , 50 -- ./. 2010 . , 19,1% 2006 . 10,6% 2007--2010 . 5,4% . 2010 ., (. ). . , . Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 23 0,7 .. 2010 . 2008 . , , 2006 . . (). 2020 . , ( , 2,2% . ), , , . . " , , " "" . . , ( , , , ) , . , , . . , , . " ", , 3,7% , . . , "" . , , 2010 . . . , , 2008--2010 . -- 45 ./. 2011-- 2020 . ( , ""), . . 2006 . 2020 . 16,5% , 7,5% , 2008--2010 . -- 13,4% . 1% . , 2008 . . -- -- 4,7% , -- (7,4% ) 1% . . , . 18% . , , , 2010 . , . . . -- . . . , (% ) : , 25% , . 20% , . 15% . , 10% : 32,0% 2002 . 25,8% 2006 . 5% . 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 .. -- . BT. BT 24· -- . 4,75% , -- . ( 6%). -- . . ? , · , , . . , , . ? , . , · . . 4--4,5%. , , " , , , , . , ". . ( ) Transparency International , "", , "" , , . . , , , , -- , , , -- . , : , , , , , , , . . , -- , , ; " , . . " , , , , , . . , , , ? , . , , , , , . , . . , (David Moore) 6% -- , : (Athanasios Vamvakidis) -- , 10%. , . . "Economic Growth . · in Croatia: Potential and Constraints", IMF Working Paper 07/198, , , : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ wp/2007/wp07198.pdf. BT Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 25 , . -- " : ", 2 . , 2005 . , . . , , 11 2007 . () 1990 ., . . "DecadeWatch" , , , , -- , , . , , . , , , ( 2004 .) 0 ( , . ) 4 ( ). . , , , . , , , -- . , -- -- . "DecadeWatch" , " ". : http://www.romadecade.org/ , , . : http://www.worldbank.org/eca/fiscal 10 -- , 2006 ., , , 2007 . -- 26--27 , "8+2", 31 . , , , , , . , , . , . , . , , , . . , , , 150 , . , , 2007 . , , , , , , . . , , , . . , , . , , . 15. : , http://www.worldbank.org/eca/eu10rer 26 · . , : , , . , " , : ". , . 21--24 , : http://www.worldbank.org/tj 29 , . " ", 98% , . , 1998 . 43%. . , , . . , , (), 98% , , . . . . , , . 10,2% 2000/2001 . 25,1% 2004/2005 . , 1996 2004 . 60%, 123 10 000 48. , : 17 30 , , , , , , , (PNoWB) , . . . 2006 . , " ". / : , , . / , 1987 ., . , -- , 2000 2004 . , . . , 2006 . 18 24 . 42%. " / 2 , " , , / , , , , , , . . , . . . . : http://go.worldbank.org/JW4JCA2EE0 BT Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 27 . " ", : Bank, P.O. Box 960, Herndon, VA . 20172, U.S.; .: +1 703 661 1580, : 703 661 1501, e mail: books@worldbank.org, : www.worldbank.org /pub . lications. InfoShop : 701 18th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C., .: , . +1 202 458 5454. 2007 (World Development Indicators 2007) 2007 . http: // econ.worldbank.org / ISBN: 0 8213 6959 8, SKU: 16959 Erwin Tiongson, Jean Fares " " : , , 2001--2004 . (Youth . "" Unemployment, Labor Market Transitions, and Scarring: , 900 Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2001 04) 150 14 WPS4183, 2007 . 80 . : , , , , , . CD ROM , 45 1960 2005 ., , . . 4800 2001 2004 . -- 2007: . , . (Global Monitoring Report 2007: Confronting the Challenges of , Gender Equality and Fragile States) , . 2007 . , , ISBN: 0 8213 6975 X, SKU: 16975 , . , " -- 2007", , , . . , , , . . . , 2015 . , , , , , . , , , . WPS4222, 2007 . -- , . , , J. Edgardo Campos, Sanjay Pradhan (.) , : . " (The Many Faces of Corruption: Tracking Vulnerabilities at the " Sector Level) . 2007 . , ISBN: 0 8213 6725 0, SKU: 16725 , . . , . ? : , , , , , , , . , , , , , . " , . " , . 28 · Aristomene Varoudakis, Erwin R. Tiongson, Taras Pushak 2007 ., CERGE EI, WP 318 , http://www.cerge ei.cz/publications/working_papers/ : 1992--2004 . (Public Finance, Governance, and Growth in , Transition Economies: Empirical Evidence from 1992 2004) , , WPS4255, 2007 , . , , , . , ( 10 ) , , , -- . , , , , ( ) . . , , , 1988 1995 . , . , , : 0,8 1,3% . , . Balezs Egert, Carol S. Leonard " " David Dollar ? (Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is It Real?) , 2007 . (Poverty, Inequality, and http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPaper Social Disparities during China's Economic Reform) s/wp866.pdf WPS4253, 2007 . , 25 " ", , . , -- 64% 10% 2004 . ( , , ), , , 1996 2005 . " ". . . . , , , , . . , , , . , . , , . . , , Roland Beck, Annette Kamps, Elitza Mileva , , (Long Term Growth Prospects for the Russian Economy) , , 2007 . http://www.ecb.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp58.pdf . , , , , , . , , . , . , Libor Dusek : , (Political Risk of Social Security: The Case , . , of the Indexation of Benefits in the Czech Republic) , " Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 29 ", , . (1989--2002 .), , . . , , , Ville Kaitila . , (Free Trade , , between the EU and Russia -- Sectoral Effects and Impacts on Northwest Russia) . 2007 . http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:dpaper:1087&r=tra Slavo Radosevic 25 : ? (Research and Development and Competitiveness in South , Eastern Europe: Asset or Liability for EU Integration?) (CGE). 2007 ., UCL SEES EWP 75 http://www.ssees.ac.uk/wp75sum.htm . , , . . () , , , , . , , , -- . . , , , , . , , " ". . , , , , , . , . Hideki Hiraizumi (Changes in the Foreign Trade Structure of the Russian Far East under the Process of Transition toward a Market Economy) Erick Berglof, Gerard Roland (). 2007 . : http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Dp/Abstract/094.html (The Economics of Transition: The Fifth Nobel Symposium in Economics) Palgrave Macmillan, 2007 . ISBN 13: 978 1 4039 9639 8 ISBN 10: 1 4039 9639 3 . , , , , . , , 1999 ., 50 , . . : : ; ; ; , ; ; 1990 .; , 1990 ., ; , 2002 . . , Christopher Gerry, Tomasz Mickiewicz , , , ; , : , (Inequality, ; , Democracy and Taxation: Lessons from the Post Communist ; , Transition) 1980 , 2007 ., UCL SEES Economics WP 74 , http://www.ssees.ac.uk/wp75sum.htm . BT 30 · 28 -- 1 2007 ., , 24--27 2007 ., , (12 ) , , , . : , · ; (CMEE) · ; . : · ; · · ; ; · ; · ; ; · ; · ; · , · ; . · ; : http://www.earli.org/ · 2004 2007 . resources/EARLI2007_Second_Call.pdf . : http://symposium2007. : manas.kg 29--30 2007 ., , (GDN). : . ( 29--31 2008 ., , , ). 600 , . -- , , . . . . 15 2007 . , . -- : i.glinavos@soas.ac.uk. ( , , , . ) , , "" Registration Request L&E2007 (, , ). , " . . " 2--3 2007 ., , : http://www.gdnet.org/mid dle.php?oid=1220 , -- . IX " , " , 1--3 2008 ., , . ? ? : -- , , , , . , , , . .. . : . http://go.worldbank.org/D06LJDA771 , 2 3 2008 ., 15 2007 . on line : : http://HSEconf2008.hse.ru/ BT Beyond Transition · -- 2007 · 31 " ", Liberalization Era", Bogazici University, Economics Working Paper ISS/EC 02 02, http://ssrn.com/abstract=303220 Bonin, J., Wachtel, P., 2003. "Financial Sector Development in Beck, Thorsten, Asl Demirg Kunt, and Ross Levine, 2007. Transition Economies: Lessons from the First Decade", Financial "Finance, Inequality, and the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Markets, Institutions & Instruments 12 (1), 1 66 forthcoming. Fink, Gerhard, Haiss, Peter, Vuksic, Goran, 2004. "Changing Beegle, Kathleen, Rajeev Dehejia, and Roberta Gatti, 2007. 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