-Sub-Saharan Africa Page 1 of 2 THE WORLD BANS GROUP Regions: Sub-Saharan Africa Africa Region Working Paper Series No. 7 On the Recent Trade Performance of Sub-Saharan African Countries: Cause for Hope or More of the Same? Francis Ng and Alexander J. Yeats September 2000 Abstract This study examines the recent trade performance of 28 large and mid-sized Sub-Saharan African countries in an attempt to determine the change in trends. From the early 1980s to the early 1990s Africa's share in global exports fell sharply to about one-half its earlier level. However, from 1993 on the data suggest that decline in this share may have slowed. For the larger African countries as a group, manufactures' share of all exports rose from 19 to 28 percent. Much of the increase was due to a relatively few countries like Mauritius and South Africa, although several "unusual" products like precious stones increased the reported shares of manufactured exports for several other countries. No meaningful improvement occurred in the diversity of Sub-Saharan African exports. Indeed, the product composition of some of the African countries' exports became more concentrated. A decomposition of the 1990-1998 export performance of the Sub-Saharan African countries as a group into supply and demand components shows that their exports were approximately $6.3 billion dollars lower than they would have been if the continued erosion of regional market shares had been halted. Recent changes in Africa's exports indicate that no general increase occurred in the number of industries or product groups in which the African countries have a "revealed" comparative advantage. Furthermore, little evidence exists that the relative importance of exports of processed domestically produced primary commodities generally increased. Some recent empirical studies show that a few httn://www.worldbank.org/afr/wps/wp7.htm 8/28/2001 -Sub-Saharan Africa Page 2 of 2 countries which implemented trade and other economic reforms experienced an acceleration in exports and an enhanced international competitiveness. A key related question concerns the scope for further reforms that would improve African economic performance. Cross-country indices of the quality of governance and the commercial "environment" in SSA countries indicates much remains to be done. The domestic business climate is still generally less favorable than in many countries which compete with Africa for foreign commerce and investment. African policies affecting taxation, security of property rights, the regulation of commercial activity and trade are still far more restrictive than in those developing countries that experienced, or are now experiencing, successful export led industrialization drives. These findings indicate that any improvement in Africa's trade performance will be dependent on the further progress in implementing outward oriented and commercial policies and reforms in governance. FIull text ofpaper. (In Adobe Acrobat format. Requires Acrobat PDF viewer) $EAaCH F6EDACK SITE MAP 9CWCASEI http://www.worldbank.org/afr/wps/wp7.htm 8/28/2001 ON THE RECENT TRADE PERFORMANCE OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES: Cause for Hope or More of the Same? Francis Ng and Alexander J. Yeats Trade Research Team The World Bank Washington, D.C. 20433 ON THE RECENT TRADE PERFORMANCE OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES: Cause for Hope or More of the Same? Francis Ng and Alexander Yeats Staff members, Trade Team, Development Research Group, The World Bank, Washington D.C. 20433. The views expressed in this paper need not reflect those of the World Bank. We would like to thank Larry Hinkle and Ataman Aksoy for numerous comments and suggestions. 2 I. INTRODUCTION The role and contribution of intemational trade to industrialization and growth has long been a topic of interest to economists, and a large number of studies examined this relationship empirically. ' Most investigations confirned Nurske's (1959) and Kravis (1970) conclusion that international trade provides an important stimulus to growth. As a result of these findings attention shifted to the identification of factors that constrained a country's capacity to fully engage in intemational trade and experience its associated beneficial effects.2 While high foreign tariffs and non-tariff restrictions clearly can reduce trade below potential levels, it has increasingly been recognized that domestically imposed restrictions can have similar adverse effects in less evident ways. Specifically, empirical investigations show a country's own trade barriers may create a significant bias against exportables, they may reduce imports below levels required to support otherwise attainable rates of growth, they may cause a mis-allocation of resources among industries producing for the domestic market, and also reduce a country's capacity to respond to unfavorable external shocks (see Nash and Thomas 1991).3 These twin conclusions; (t) that trade has an important positive 'See Singer (1950), Myrdal (1957), Harberler (1959), Prebish (1959), or Chenery (1961) among others for illustrative examples of the theoretical and conceptual debate on the relationship between trade and growth. Representative studies which tested this relationship empirically include Maizels (1968), Michaely (1977), Balassa (1978), Bhagwati (1978), Reidel (1984), Singer and Grey (1988) orNg andYeats (1997) among others. 2Keesing (1967) provides a useful discussion of the reasons why trade has positive industrialization and development effects. Trade brings individuals in developing countries into contact with new technologies, products and skills and these learning effects produce an outward shift of the production-possibility frontier. International trade also offers a means whereby some countries can circumvent the natural limitations of their own small domestic markets. Production for export can increase employment opportunities directly and may also have similar effects in industries with forward or backward linkages to the export sector. Increased foreign competition can also weaken the monopoly position of domestic enterprises and result in lower prices and better service for consumers. Trade can also produce important long-term benefits if foreign competition forces local producers to modernize and keep abreast of recent developments and technologies. 3Balassa and Associates (1971), UN Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (1972), and Grubel and Johnson (1971) show how the level and structure of a country's own trade barriers may incorporate an important anti- export bias. Balassa (1982)(1983) determined that countries which pursued "outward oriented" trade policies characterized by low import barriers were better able to respond to adverse external shocks than those with high tariffs and restrictive NTBs. The negative growth and industrialization record of countries that adopted "import substitution" development policies provides further evidence as to the superiority of open trade policies. 3 impact on industrialization and growth; and (ii) high domestic trade barriers reduce a country's capacity to benefit from potential learning experiences, keep abreast with modern technologies, realize higher foreign exchange earnings, or benefit from more vigorous competition due to the opening of domestic markets are central to policy prescriptions that seek a liberalization of a country's own trade restrictions to improve economic performance. Since published studies show foreign trade barriers did not cause Sub-Saharan Africa's marginalization in world trade and its generally dismal overall economic performance (Ng and Yeats 1997 or Erzan and Svedberg 1991) increased attention has focused on whether African countries' own trade and governance policies were the cause (Ng and Yeats 1997, 1998). Several general analyses of African trade barriers conclude they constitute a major drag on these economies. Kopperschmidt and Matutes (1997) argue that the traditional trade regime of most SSA countries before adjustment reforms incorporated features of inward oriented development strategies of the 1950s and 1960s. These strategies were previously believed by some to be the best way to achieve industrialization, provide infant industry protection, improve foreign exchange reserves, enhance security in food supply, offset negative prospects for primary commodity exports and these objectives were used to justify the establishment of a highly protected, state controlled and anti-export based trade regime (See Meier (1968) or Keesing (1967) for very forceful arguments to the contrary). Import substitution, rather than export promotion, was the primary goal of trade policy and it was achieved through high trade barriers - normally quantitative restrictions, import prohibitions and licensing. The state control of market activities was generally extensive, either indirectly through the issuance of import licenses, or directly, by conducting trade through state agencies or companies. Historical developments show these trade regimes, characterized by a lack of transparency and unpredictability, heavily encouraged rent seeking, corruption, and caused the misallocation of economic resources along with other adverse economic consequences. The general failure 4 of these inward oriented policies emphasize that increased openness is the best approach to improving trade performance and achieving higher growth rates. This paper will attempt to determine whether recent trade and economic policy changes by some Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries enhanced their intemational competitiveness and improved their export performance. Specifically, it addresses the following points: - - Have recent exports from the Sub-Saharan African countries recently grown at a relatively faster pace and now come close to matching the average growth in world trade? - - Studies show Sub-Saharan African countries have been increasingly marginalized in world trade, as reflected in secular declines in their shares of this exchange and in shares of their major traditional exports (Ng and Yeats 1997). Does the available evidence indicate these trends have been reversed? - - Aggregate analyses of the composition of African countries' exports typically reveals a structure often held to be detrimental to industrialization and growth. African exports are typically concentrated in a relatively few primary commodities whose unstable prices (and export revenues) are thought to make development planning difficult.4 Does the available evidence indicate that shifts are occurring in the structure of exports toward products (like labor intensive manufactures) that could play a more positive role in improving prospects for industrialization and growth? - - Are positive micro-level changes occurring which are not reflected in aggregate trade statistics? Specifically, is the "revealed" comparative advantage of the SSA countries changing, has their competitive position improved (as reflected in changes in their market shares for traditional exports), or have they made progress in shifting the composition of exports up commodity processing chains? - - Some studies of factors that influence the success or failure of efforts to promote industrialization and growth conclude a high level of intra-industry trade plays an important positive role. Related studies show that cross-country production sharing, which often involves a special type of intra-industry trade, assists participating countries to integrate into global and regional markets and may also act as a catalyst to industrialization and growth. Does the evidence suggest that the level of this trade has increased in the African countries? - - Studies suggest there may be adverse consequences (like paying higher prices for imports and receiving lower prices for exports - see Hirschmann (1948), Avramovic (1979) or Yeats (1981) among others) for countries whose trade is highly concentrated on a geographic basis. Does the 4See MacBean (1966), Massel (1970), Michaely (1962) or Yeats (1981) for empirical evidence and a discussion of the rationale for this proposition. 5 available evidence suggest that the African countries have been more successful in establishing new trade ties and penetrating non-traditional markets? - - Finally, what evidence exists as to the importance of self imposed government and commercial restrictions in the SSA countries? Are current trade and other economic other policies which affect the general business environment still sufficiently onerous that they constitute a major "drag" on African exports and growth? II. DATA AND METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES Major Point Collectively, Sub-Saharan African countries are among the most deficient in reporting timely and accurate trade data to the United Nations Statistical Office. As such, most analyses of the region's trade performance must rely on statistics reported by Africa's trading partners. This procedure has some limitations, such as the fact that it cannot be employed for empirical analyses of intra-African trade where partner statistics are generally missing. Before the preceding questions can be addressed, a problem that must be confronted concerns the availability of African trade statistics. Empirical analyses of many Sub-Saharan African countries' export performance is complicated by the fact that they failed to report data to the United Nations, and the statistics that are available may be of poor quality.5 As an alternative, import statistics for OECD and other countries which are current in the United Nations COMTRADE Database will be used to reconstruct African countries' export profiles.6 Similarly, data on African imports can be tabulated from the export statistics of 5Yeats (1990a) documents the poor quality of United Nations statistics on African trade. Further evidence relating to this point is provided by Rozanski and Yeats (1994). Many of the African countries have not provided the United Nations with trade data since the early 1980s so much of the UN information that is available is based on "estimates" of this exchange. A major attraction of the OECD and other reporters import statistics used in this study is that these data should not be affected by "unrecorded" trade or smuggling which is known to be a major problem in available African data. 6The International Monetary Fund publication Direction of Trade Statistics has a comprehensive coverage with total trade reported for each SSA country and its individual partners. However, a major limitation of the IMF data is that it provides no indication of the composition of trade. The IMF data will be used in a few sections of this report when trade composition is not a relevant factor - such as an analysis of the geographic concentration of trade. 6 their trading partners. The notes to Table 2.1 identify countries whose records were available in COMTRADE and were used to tabulate African trade data. Three points should be noted concerning this approach. First, export statistics are normally reported in free-on-board (f.o.b.) values while import data are typically recorded on a cost-insurance-freight (c.i.f.) basis. As a result, the latter (drawn from the partner country data) should overstate the level of the Sub- Saharan African countries' exports, but there is little reason to believe that trade trends, shares, or growth rates would be affected. Second, at the time this study was initiated (December 1999) import statistics for countries accounting for about 90 percent of world trade were available through 1998 so the global country coverage was quite good. However, the procedure will not reflect Africa's export performance in markets where the partner country data are not available. This means that most African countries' intra-trade, and trade with the countries of the former Soviet Union, could not be analyzed. In spite of these omissions, the statistical information for the partner countries that constituted Africa's major export markets was reasonably complete.7 As Table 2.1 shows, the partner countries that reported import statistics to UN COMTRADE account for almost 90 percent of the larger African export totals shown in IMF Direction of Trade or UNCTAD publications. Appendix Table 1 shows that very similar coverage ratios occur for the mid-size SSA countries. Third, there is a growing body of evidence that many countries' import statistics are more reliable than their export data so use of the partner country data should be a positive factor in the 7Potentially, one problem concerned the South African Customs Union (SACU). Prior to 1993 South Africa did not report trade statistics to the United Nations, but since has provided this infornation in a timely and accurate fashion. Since the procedures employed in this study required that data be drawn from a common group of trading partners, in both the initial and end periods, the lack of pre-1993 SACU data precluded any analysis of how other SSA countries' trade changed in this market. If trade shifted markedly toward SACU after UN sanctions were lifted this may make it appear that trade with third countries was less vigorous than otherwise would have been the case. Also, it is acknowledged that South Africa is a major trading partner for several regional African countries like Zimbabwe or Malawi so the omission of SACU makes the statistics on their trade performance less comprehensive. 7 analyses of African export performance.8 8Countries have more of an incentive to compile accurate import statistics (which are used for purposes such as levying tariffs or administering quotas and other forms of non-tariff barriers) than they do export data. As an example, the United States previously acknowledged that Canadian import statistics on trade with the U.S were more reliable than United States data on exports to Canada. As a result, Canadian import statistics are now directly substituted for the less reliable U.S. compiled export data in official United States trade data. Numerous other problems, like transshipment or differences in the way offshore assembly operations are reported, may occur in export data and these are generally not reflected in partner countries' import statistics. 8 Table 2.1 United Nations COMTRADE Coverage Ratios for the Major African Countries' Exports (values in US$ million) I 1 1990 Ex orts 994 Eports 1 1998 Exports 1 Available Reported Percentage Available Reported Percentage Available Reported Percentage COMTRADE IMF DOT Difference COMTRADE IMF DOT Difference COMTRADE IMF DOT Difference Exporter Partners* Total (%) Partners* Total (%) Partners* Total (%) Angola 3,883 3,748 -3.6 3,155 2,860 -10.3 3,494 3,603 3.0 Cameroon 2,072 2,026 -2.3 1,725 1,360 -26.8 1,866 2,027 7.9 Democratic Republic Congo 1,869 1,353 -38.1 1,232 1,274 3.3 1,097 1,179 7.0 Republic of Congo 1,239 1,209 -2.5 1,167 932 -25.2 1,182 1,585 25.4 Cote d'lvoire 2,497 2,813 11.2 2,645 2,829 6.5 3,502 4,395 20.3 Gabon 2,558 2,483 -3.0 2,392 2,298 -4.1 2,288 2,498 8.4 Ghana 1,002 1,235 18.9 1,270 1,479 14.1 1,496 1,998 25.1 Kenya 993 1,120 11.3 1,172 1,667 29.7 1,302 2,152 39.5 Liberia 2,194 1,943 -12.9 610 605 -0.8 1,233 912 -35.2 Mauritius 1,198 1,202 0.3 1,286 1,342 4.2 1,661 1,704 2.5 Nigeria 13,348 10,273 -29.9 10,938 11,399 4.0 9,593 11,758 18.4 South Africa 13,210 20,397** 35.2 14,771** 25,119 41.2 20,628** 22,473 8.2 Zambia 1,100 544 -102.2 637 758 16.0 512 949 46.0 Zimbabwe 1,116 1,491 25.2 1,181 1,971 40.1 1,287 2,055 37.4 ALL ABOVE COUNTRIES 48,271 51,838 6.9 44,181 55,893 21.0 51,142 59,288 13.7 Excluding South Africa 35,061 31,440 -11.5 29,410 30,774 4.4 30,413 36,815 17.4 *Includes the following countries' reported total imports from the African trading partner: all original OECD members, Hong Kong, China, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Mexico, Malaysia, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Israel, Hungary, Poland, Philippines, Pakistan, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Cyprus, Ecuador, Egypt, Bangladesh, Kenya, Guatemala, Malta, Macau, Mauritius, Uruguay, Romania, Trinidad and Tobago, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Nicaragua, Barbados, Bolivia, Greenland, and St Lucia. ** These figures represents the world export totals reported by South Africa to UN COMTRADE in 1990, 1994 and 1998. 9 An additional point concerns the selection of the African countries whose trade performance will be analyzed. To simplify the presentation the text tables focus primarily on the 14 major African countries that had exports of over $1 billion in 1998. As a group, these larger countries accounted for approximately 90 percent of all Sub-Saharan exports in 1998. However, the appendix tables provide similar export performance statistics for an additional 14 mid-sized SSA countries whose exports totaled at least $250 million. This cut off excluded several very small countries, like Cape Verde or the Seychelles which have highly concentrated exports that could be affected by special and unusual supply or demand conditions Finally, a further point concerns the time period selected for this analysis. For several reasons the analysis generally focuses on developments in the most recent 1990-98 period, although in some cases it was felt useful to analyze statistics for somewhat longer term trends. This 1990-98 interval appears sufficiently wide that it should be possible to identify any recent inflection that may have occurred in recent African trade trends. Second, some African countries implemented economic reforms over this interval which raises the question whether they had any observable impact on performance. Third, an analysis of global demand changes indicates 1993-1996/97 was a remarkable expansionary period for many of Africa's major export products. As such, this analysis often focuses on the regional response to extemal demand in this unusual interval. A question of particular interest is whether Africa was able to maintain market shares over this interval or whether these were eroded due to internal supply rigidities. III. THE TRADE PERFORMANCE OF AFRICAN COUNTRIES As noted, several standards could be used for assessing the African countries recent trade performance. These included analyses of changes in international competitive position or in changes in comparative advantage. One might also want to determine if SSA countries diversified their exports, or 10 increased their participation in intra-industry trade. Collectively, each of these elements may help indicate how (or whether) the Sub-Saharan African countries trade performance changed. A. Global Perspectives on Recent Exports Major Point During the last three decades Sub-Saharan African global exports either declined in absolute terms or expanded at a slower pace than world trade. Although global market conditions for major African exports in the mid-1990s were far more favorable than those prevailing over most of the last two or three decades the evidence suggests that Africa continued to be marginalized in world trade. The African share of global non-oil exports is now less than one-half what it was in the early 1980s. When examined in a longer-term perspective, one distinguishing feature of the Sub-Saharan African countries' trade performance is their major marginalization on a global level. In the early 1950s, Sub- Saharan Africa accounted for about 3.1 percent of world exports (2.9 percent for imports), but by the early 1990s this share fell to 1.0 percent (1.1 percent for imports). To put these numbers in proper perspective, if Sub-Saharan Africa maintained its 1950s global trade share the region's total exports would now be $65 billion higher than current levels. The extensive erosion of Africa's market shares in OECD countries contributed to this decline as the region's traditional exports were displaced by similar goods from competing suppliers. One study (Ng and Yeats 1997) estimated that market share loses for 30 of Africa's largest exports reduced annual export earnings by about $11 billion in current dollars. These competitive losses, and the fact that global demand was generally below average for the types of goods SSA countries produced, reduced the growth rates for their exports well below that for world trade. Have these trends been halted or reversed? Table 3.1: Compound Annual Growth Rates for the Exports of the 14 Longer Sub-Saharan African Countries Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) lExporter 1-980-85 |1985-90 | 1990-93 | 1993-96 |1996-98 11 IAll Non-Oil Goods: Angola -36.56 57.55 -15.12 21.29 15.38 Cameroon -5.92 4.34 -5.22 15.49 -0.32 Congo Dem Rep -10.64 5.05 -20.92 15.57 -10.36 Congo Rep -7.25 19.70 9.78 18.52 -39.28 Cote Divoire -0.59 -1.40 -2.28 15.91 -1.15 Gabon -9.31 13.72 -5.19 11.32 -3.14 Ghana -14.09 15.29 -1.71 12.91 4.82 Kenya -0.36 2.88 2.51 10.44 -2.06 Liberia -5.98 18.77 -35.26 23.17 4.96 Mauritius -0.77 20.34 2.65 6.81 2.76 Nigeria -14.84 6.93 -2.83 14.64 -7.16 Sacu -7.18 7.22 -0.32 14.73 3.36 Zambia -15.35 12.61 -15.35 -7.86 -0.89 Zimbabwe 10.49 12.17 -5.11 14.08 -5.10 All Above Countries -6.87 7.97 -4.63 13.94 0.60 All Non-SSA Countries 1.15 16.57 3.31 1 12.64 2.48 |All Food:IIIIII IAngola -16.381 -14.14 19.06 27.64 0.25 ICameroon -6.95 -5.15 -6.26 17.70 -9.61 |Congo Dem Rep -4.09 -2.06 -23.07 12.77 -29.02 ICongo Rep -6.20 -1.17 0.00 -16.81 86.94 Cote Djivoire 3.76 -5.40 0.23 17.43 2.84 Gabon -0.76 1.83 -19.40 -5.57 21.38 Ghana -9.52 2.74 -2.91 21.45 6.61 Kenya 1.39 0.75 1.61 11.11 -0.88 Liberia -4.59 -24.78 -30.25 69.18 -51.66 Mauritius -7.90 8.75 2.10 8.04 -0.96 Nigeria -12.20 -4.38 4.63 13.22 3.99 Sacu -12.50 11.71 -4.28 20.12 2.48 Zambia -6.89 10.91 -6.23 19.72 32.07 Zimbabwe 9.64 14.06 -0.34 16.27 -6.31 All Above Countries j 4.40 1.56 21.95 16.79 0.90 ,All Non-SSA Countries -1.43 12.28 2.22 1 10.79 1 -2.45 Table 3.1 (Continued) I___________ Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) I Exporter 1980-85 1985-90 1990-93 1993-96 1996-98 All Manufactures: Angola -58.11 164.60 -18.14 20.44 18.50 Cameroon 1.78 7.35 -13.99 18.10 13.51 ICongo Dem Rep | 5.47 10.58 12.18 23.17 -5.47 JCongo Rep I -3.95 1 27.60 30.68 23.25 -65.28 12 Cote D'ivoire 0.10 23.91 -0.50 21.25 30.82 iGabon | -12.04 | -2.71 1 -14.16 5 -12.64 1 37.28 2 Ghana -8.19 43.74 10.26 20.68 6.89 Kenya -4.48 10.81 5.99 1.31 -6.50 Liberia 2.37 40.64 -31.38 22.91 3.36 Mauritius 12.97 29.36 2.73 6.33 3.98 Nigeria 11.01 17.47 -13.46 13.51 -1.28 Sacu -7.98 3.57 8.37 16.36 6.31 Zambia -21.83 29.69 -8.24 15.02 8.14 Zimbabwe 3.16 14.18 -3.57 8.28 -3.23 All Above Countries -6.14 12.81 0.03 | 16.14 1.60 IAII Non-SSA Countries 1 2.73 j 17.57 | 3.91 j 12.97 J 3.29 l Source: Computations based on the above countries' partners data drawn from UN COMTRADE Statistics. Table 3.1 presents related evidence by showing compound annual growth rates for exports from: (i) the group of 14 larger African countries; and (ii) all non-SSA countries for selected periods during the 1980s and 1990s This information is given for all non-oil exports, and for foodstuffs and manufactures separately. Appendix tables 2 and 3 show the African trade statistics on which these growth rates are based. As a group, African non-oil exports recorded negative growth rates during 1980-85 and 1990-93, while over 1985-90 and 1996-98 export growth was positive, but well below corresponding rates for non- SSA countries. However, during 1993-96 the larger African countries' exports grew faster than those from the non-African countries. In large part, the 1993-96 period represents something of an anomaly as global demand for many African traditional exports, that is, products like cotton, coffee, cocoa, leather, etc., was well above historic levels. However, these growth rates fell off in 1997 partially due to the East Asian crisis.9 In short, the general below average growth rates reported in Table 3.1 indicates a continued reduction of the share of Africa in world trade. With the exception of the unusual 1993-96 period a similar pattem and conclusions emerges from the mid-sized African countries export growth rates (see Appendix Table 4). 9The sharp 1990-1993 decline in the rate of Zambia's non-oil exports is due almost entirely to copper (SITC 682) which fell from approximately three-quarters of a billion dollars in 1994 to about $475 million in 1996. The slight fall in Gabon's recent export growth rate is almost entirely due to radioactive elements whose reported 1998 exports were about one-sixth their corresponding value in 1994. 13 When similar statistics are examined for the component foods and manufactured product groups they both reflect strong parallels to the aggregate data. Food exports generally grew at a below average pace except in the atypical 1993-96 period when they expanded at a rate more than 60 percent above exports from other countries.10 The data are admittedly erratic but the average manufactures growth rates are also generally below those for similar goods originating in non-African countries. The one major positive point reflected in Table 3.1 relates to the recent export performance of SACU which produced above average growth rates for both foodstuffs and manufactures. I I Another related way of analyzing the African countries' trade performance is to examine recent changes in their share of global trade. Table 3.2, which is based on UN COMTRADE partner country data, provides relevant information by first reporting each large African country's average share of global exports in a 1980-85 base period (see column 2). The numbers that follow show its corresponding export share for selected years in the 1990s relative to the corresponding average share in the 1980-85 base. For example, in 1980-85 the global export share of Kenya for all non-oil goods was 0.066 percent. Its corresponding share in 1990 was 54.5 percent of that in the base period, while its 1998 share was about 46 percent of that in 1980-85. Appendix Table 5 provides similar statistics for the mid-sized African countries. Table 3.2: Analysis of Change in the Share of Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries in World Trade 1980-85 Ave Ratio of Current to Average 19980-85 Share of World Trade World Trade Exporter Share (%) 1990 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 All Non-Oil Goods: l0Cocoa beans had a major influence on the Cote dilvoire's food growth rates as the value of exports doubled over 1993-1996. Zambia's exports of fresh vegetables and coffee were primarily responsible for this country's above average 1993-96 food growth rates. I I The table also shows that 1993-96 was an exceptional period for some African countries manufactures exports. Analysis of the underlying trade statistics suggests that this was primarily due to exports of some forms of processed primary commodities, like cotton fabric and textiles or plywood and veneers, where global demand was exceptionally high for both the primary and processed stages of these products. The underlying data also show that the very high growth rates for Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo for some periods in the 1990s is due almost entirely to diamonds which are classified as a manufactured good. 14 1980-85 Ave Ratio of Current to Average 19980-85 Share of World Trade World Trade Exporter Share (%) 1990 1993 11995 1996 1997 1998 Angola 0.007 1.423 0.791 0.708 0.988 1.197 1.253 Cameroon 0.072 0.511 0.395 0.470 0.426 0.411 0.403 Congo Dem Rep . 0.126 0.483 0.217 0.262 0.235 0.175 0.180 Congo Rep 0.015 0.866 1.042 1.009 1.214 0.969 0.426 Cote D'ivoire 0.195 0.455 0.386 0.415 0.421 0.354 0.392 Gabon 0.032 0.694 0.538 0.527 0.519 0.529 0.464 Ghana 0.056 0.646 0.558 0.568 0.562 0.509 0.588 Kenya 0.066 0.545 0.534 0.490 0.503 0.482 0.460 Liberia 0.092 0.864 0.213 0.245 0.279 0.272 0.292 Mauritius 0.035 1.246 1.226 1.052 1.045 1.024 1.051 Nigeria 0.047 0.515 0.430 0.439 0.453 0.439 0.372 SaCu 0.753 0.562 0.506 0.496 0.535 0.547 0.544 Zambia 0.073 0.554 0.306 0.226 0.167 0.174 0.156 Zimbabwe 0.050 0.821 0.638 0.636 0.663 0.716 0.568 IAl1 Above Countrie s 1.620 0.591 0.466 0.464 0.482 0.471 0.465 All Non-SSA Countries 97.986 4 1.009 1 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011 All Food: I I |Angola 0.024 0.164 0.260 0.349 0.396 0.467 0.417 ameroOn R 0.340 0.427 0.331 0.406 0.395 0.324 0.338 Congo Dem Rep 0.131 0.537 0.230 0.443 0.241 0.134 0.128 Congo Rep 0.010 0.583 0.549 0.497 0.231 0.610 0.848 Cote D'ivoire 1.028 0.552 0.523 0.601 0.620 0.554 0.688 Gabon 0.013 0.673 0.331 0.294 0.204 0.228 0.316 Ghana 0.248 0.600 0.516 0.609 0.677 0.649 0.807 |Kenya 0.372 0.688 0.679 0.663 0.681 0.701 0.702 |Liberia 0.026 0.154 0.049 0.005 0.174 0.016 0.043 |Mauritius 0.163 0.808 0.809 0.728 0.747 0.727 0.768 Nigeria 0.202 0.381 0.410 0.397 0.436 0.452 0.494 Sacu 0.919 0.724 0.597 0.662 0.758 0.780 0.835 IZambia 0.009 0.727 0.564 0.521 0.709 1.522 1.296 jZimbabwe 0.135 1.200 1.117 1.071 1.285 1.526 1.183 |All Above Countries 3.622 0.623 0.552 0.604 0.644 0.632 0.687 All Non-SSA Countries 94.868 1.021 1.026 1.022 1.021 | 1.021 1.019 Al Manufactures: | { AAngola I 0.004 1 3.481 1.703 1.415 2.063 2.571 2.715 ICameroon 0.004 0.632 0.359 0.453 0.410 0.464 0.495 COngO Dem Rep 0.013 1.001 1.260 1.686 1.632 1.328 1.367 ICongoRepI 0.007 11.106 12.201 12.176 1 2858 12.065 10.3231 |Cote Djivoire 0.009 1.249 1.097 1.071 1.356 0.945 0.608 Gabon 0.012 0.278 0.157 0.186 0.073 0.081 0.128 IGhana 0.002 2.627 3.141 2.876 3.828 2.388 4.100 Kenya 0.009 0.671 0.713 0.517 0.514 0.481 0.421 Liberia 0.042 1.902 0.548 0.639 0.706 0.674 0.707 Mauritius 0.017 2.279 2.204 1.895 1.838 1.839 1.862 |Nigeria 0.008 1.601 | 0.926 | 0.921 | 0.939 | 1.144 0.858 ISacU 0.387 1 0.458 0.520 0.526 0.568 0.585 0.601 15 1980-85 Ave Ratio of Current to Average 19980-85 Share of World Trade World Trade Exporter Share (%) 1990 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 Zambia 0.003 0.726 0.500 0.567 0.528 0.609 0.579 Zimbabwe 0.019 0.780 0.623 0.640 0.549 0.578 0.482 All Above Countries 0.535 0.723 0.645 0.654 0.701 0.688 0.678 All Non-SSA Countries 99.387 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 Source: Computations based on the above countries' partners data drawn from UN COMTRADE Statistics. Table 3.2 shows Africa's trade shares fell sharply from the early 1980s to the 1990s, but may have stabilized recently. For all non-oil exports, the larger African countries' 1993 world trade share declined to 46.6 percent of that in the base period, at which point the aggregate declines seemingly stabilized with their global market shares fluctuating from 46 to 48 percent of that in the early 1980s. Mauritius actually increased its 1998 global share of world non-oil exports over the 1980-85 levels, as did Angola. As previously mentioned the export performance of Angola was strongly affected by a major expansion of diamond exports. The mid-sized African countries also appear to have experienced a general, but slightly larger, reduction in global trade shares until the mid-1990s at which point some stabilization many have occurred. However, it is difficult to draw firm conclusions from these data due to the unusually strong demand for many African traditional exports that prevailed over 1993-96. 12 If one (very tentatively) argues that some African countries collective world trade share may have stabilized in the mid-1990, the evidence is strongest for exports of manufactures, although statistics presented in a following section will show this may be due to a few unusual products. Four countries, namely, Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana and Mauritius increased their global manufactures trade shares above their earlier base levels as did Madagascar among the mid-sized African countries. However, there clearly has been a major deterioration in the position of several countries, like 12Another problem is that African global trade shares are influenced by the export perfornance of other non- African countries. Starting about 1997 exports from many East Asian countries fell sharply due to the economic and financial crisis that the region experienced. As such, the apparent stabilization of African trade shares may have been due to the deterioration of East Asian performance and not a general improvement in SSA countries. 16 Gabon and Mozambique, whose current manufactures trade shares stand at about one-tenth their level in the early 1980s. Table 3.6 (which follows) shows global market share changes for these countries major product group exports. B. Changes in the Product Composition of Africa Exports Major Point For the larger African countries as a group, manufactures share of all exports rose from 17 to 27 percent. However, much of the increase was due to a relatively few countries like Mauritius and South Africa although several "unusual" products like precious stones increased the share of manufactured exports for several other countries. No increase occurred for the mid-sized African countries where the share of manufactures held constant at 13 percent. The share offoods in total exports of the larger SSA countries rose by about S points (to 19 percent), while declines of over 20 percentage points occurredfor fuels. Traditionalproducts still account for the majority of African exports. Economists often argue that Africa's concentration in primary commodity exports is detrimental to the region's long-term growth and industrialization prospects. Unstable commodity prices and export eamings are thought to make development planning difficult. The income elasticities of most primary commodities are low so countries specializing in their production might expect to have a declining share 17 in world trade unless they have a major cost or quality advantage over competitors. Third, export prospects for some primary commodities are diminished by synthetic substitutes (that is, plastics are increasingly substituted for metals, synthetic fibers are being substituted for hard fibers like jute and sisal). Is the composition of African countries' exports shifting toward manufactures or other goods which have more promising export prospects? Table 3.3 addresses this question by examining changes in the share of the larger African countries' exports of broad classes of goods like foods, agricultural raw materials, ores and minerals, or manufactures for selected years from the mid-1980s to 1998. The table also provides similar statistics for several groups of labor intensive manufactures, that is, items like textiles, clothing and footwear. These later products often played a key role in the industrialization drives of other developing countries. For these larger SSA countries as a group, manufactures grew at an above average pace as their share of total exports increased by almost 10 percentage points (to 26.5 percent) during the 1990s. The share of foods also rose by about 5 percentage points over this period while fuels registered a major 12 percentage point decline (the decline was over 20 points if measured from a 1985 base year). However, the individual country statistics show considerable variation. Manufactures share in total exports was essentially low and stable for Cameroon and Nigeria, while a declining or erratic trend is evident for Gabon and the Republic of Congo. In contrast, the share of manufactures in exports from Ghana, Democratic Republic the Congo, and SACU rose by 8 percentage points or more. 3 13 There are anomalies in some individual country data. The three-fold rise in the share of manufactures in Liberian exports is due largely to the registration of ships and boats and not an expansion of national output of industrial goods. As noted, the expansion of diamond exports from Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo was the reason for the sharp increases in the share of manufactures in these countries exports. While it might be argued that diamonds are not a manufacture they are so classified because of a defect in the SITC system. The SITC (Revision 1) fails to distinguish between raw and cut diamonds and a case can be made that the latter are a manufacture. Due to this deficiency the general policy has been to include all diamonds as a manufactured product. Finally, the statistics for Ghana are strongly affected by this countries transfer and leasing of international aircraft in 1998. This activity almost certainly involved foreign produced assets and not an increase in domestic industrial activity. 18 Table 3.3. Changes in the Structure of Major Sub-Saharan African Countries' Exports: 1985, 1990, 1994 and 1998 Share in Total Exports (% * Manufactures Sub-Group (Share in Total Exports)** Exporter Value All Agricult- Ores & All Misc. Leather Wood Text- Iron & Clothing Footwear ($million) Foods ural Fuels Metals Mfgs. Goods & & iles Steel Materials Rubber Paper Angola 1985 2,088 1.1 0.0 98.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 3,883 0.3 0.0 92.6 0.0 7.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 3,587 0.9 0.0 94.0 0.2 4.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1998 3,494 1.1 0.0 88.0 0.1 10.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cameroon 1985 2,401 22.2 6.9 66.1 3.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1990 2,072 19.8 19.9 51.3 6.2 2.6 0.2 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 1,957 27.7 34.3 28.4 6.5 3.0 0.1 0.2 1.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1998 1,866 24.2 37.7 29.2 4.8 3.9 0.2 0.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 Democratic Rep. Congo 1985 1,631 13.5 2.5 20.5 47.7 10.8 5.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 1,860 6.0 5.5 7.2 13.6 15.7 5.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 1,509 13.5 2.5 20.5 47.7 50.2 5.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1998 1,097 6.0 5.5 7.2 13.6 62.7 5.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Republic of Congo 1985 1,137 1.5 5.4 86.8 1.7 4.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 1,239 1.3 13.4 71.0 1.3 12.9 0.1 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 1,232 1.6 10.1 48.7 0.2 39.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1998 1,182 2.8 11.1 75.1 3.9 6.7 0.3 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cote d'lvoire 1985 2,657 79.7 14.5 2.3 0.2 3.1 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1990 2,497 64.2 22.9 2.9 0.3 9.7 0.1 0.0 2.8 1.7 0.0 0.4 0.0 1995 3,397 71.5 17.2 1.4 0.2 9.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1998 3,502 79.0 13.2 1.5 0.2 6.0 0.1 0.1 2.6 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 19 Share in Total Exports (%)* Manulactures Sub-Group (Share in Total Exports)** Exporter Value All Agricult- Ores & All Misc. Leather Wood Text- Iron & Clothing Footwear ($million) Foods ural Fuels Metals Mfgs. Goods & & iles Steel Materials Rubber Paper Gabon 1985 1,782 1.3 6.5 82.1 5.2 4.8 0.1 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 2,558 1.0 10.0 76.3 9.7 2.9 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1995 2,616 0.6 15.9 73.4 7.1 2.9 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1998 2,288 0.7 17.5 70.8 7.7 2.6 0.8 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ghana 1985 507 72.3 7.9 4.9 10.4 4.2 0.3 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 1,003 41.8 13.8 2.1 29.0 13.0 0.2 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 1,312 45.0 14.6 0.7 22.7 16.7 0.3 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 1998 1,496 52.2 10.0 1.4 12.2 23.4 0.2 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 Kenya 1985 862 81.0 7.3 1.0 0.5 9.4 0.8 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.1 1990 994 72.8 10.2 1.2 1.3 13.6 0.9 5.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.1 1995 1,339 72.4 13.4 0.4 0.8 11.9 1.1 1.9 0.5 0.6 0.0 3.4 0.0 1998 1,302 73.5 13.7 0.2 0.9 11.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.1 0.0 Liberia 1985 928 5.0 16.2 1.0 39.1 34.3 4.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 2,194 0.5 10.6 1.1 8.0 79.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 946 0.1 1.9 1.8 0.5 95.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1998 1,233 0.3 6.6 1.7 0.4 91.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mauritius 1985 475 51.6 0.8 0.0 0.1 47.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.5 0.2 37.0 0.0 1990 1,198 31.1 0.5 0.0 0.1 68.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 2.4 0.0 53.2 0.0 1995 1,528 30.4 0.5 0.0 0.2 68.3 0.5 (.0 0.1 2.0 0.0 54.4 0.0 1998 1,661 29.5 0.4 0.0 0.3 68.7 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.0 58.4 0.0 Nigeria 1985 14,395 1.9 0.3 96.7 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 13.348 1.6 1.1 95.1 0.2 2.0 I0.1 0.7 0.0 0.1 I0.0 0.0 0.0 20 Share in Total Exports (° Manufactures Sub-Group (Share in Total Exports)** Exporter Value All Agricult- Ores & All Misc. Leather Wood Text- Iron & Clothing Footwear ($million) Foods ural Fuels Metals Mfgs. Goods & & iles Steel _ _ _ MaXPriac _ Biihhe-r P-ra 1995 11,671 2.7 2.2 92.8 0.2 2.0 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1998 9,593 4.1 1.1 91.8 0.3 2.6 0.2 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 SACU 1985 9,722 11.1 6.8 16.4 30.4 33.1 2.2 0.6 1.5 0.9 11.3 0.7 0.0 1990 13,219 14.2 6.1 12.8 36.5 29.0 1.4 0.8 2.1 0.7 8.9 0.7 0.0 1995 17,549 13.6 5.3 12.4 26.7 38.7 3.4 1.2 2.7 0.9 11.7 1.4 0.1 1998 20,628 14.5 3.7 10.5 27.8 42.1 1.2 1.2 2.6 1.0 11.0 1.5 0.0 Zambia 1985 607 1.8 1.7 0.0 94.4 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 1990 1,100 1.7 0.7 0.0 93.7 3.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1995 679 2.8 1.0 0.0 88.7 7.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 1998 512 9.1 3.0 0.0 72.5 11.4 4.1 0.1 0.0 7.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 Zimbabwe 1985 628 37.8 14.6 0.0 21.1 26.2 0.3 1.0 0.0 1.6 21.1 1.2 0.0 1990 1,116 41.3 8.8 0.0 21.2 28.6 0.1 0.9 0.0 1.9 18.9 3.2 0.0 1995 1,320 43.1 7.7 1.2 16.4 30.6 1.1 1.4 0.3 2.4 16.4 4.2 0.0 1998 1,287 48.9 11.2 0.5 12.5 26.4 0.3 1.6 0.5 1.9 14.1 2.6 0.0 All Above Countries 1985 39,819 14.8 4.6 55.4 12.7 11.5 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 1990 48,271 13.2 6.3 46.0 16.6 17.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.5 2.9 1.6 0.0 1995 50,644 16.9 7.1 38.9 12.7 23.1 1.3 0.8 1.4 0.7 4.5 2.4 0.1 1998 51,142 18.9 6.2 33.8 13.6 26.5 0.8 0.8 1.5 0.7 4.8 2.7 0.0 * In terms of the SITC Revision I classification system the major product groups are defined as: all foods (0+1+22+4); agricultural raw materials (2-22-27-28); mineral fuels (3); ores minerals and manufactures (27+28+68); manufactures (5+6+7+8-68); miscellaneous goods (9) ** In terms of the SITC Revision I classification system the sub-group products are defined as: leather and rubber (61+62); wood and paper (63+64), textiles (65); iron and steel (67), clothing (84); footwear (85). Source: Computed from African partner countries statistics as reported by United Nations COMTRADE. 21 Somewhat surprisingly, statistics for the six labor intensive manufactured products sub-groups suggest these goods generally played a minor major role in the overall export expansion. The share of clothing is under 3 percentage points for the major African countries as a group, and the other sub-product categories were also low and essentially static. However, clothing played a major role in the case of Mauritius as these goods account for almost 60 percent of all exports. Roughly the same pattem is observed in both the large and mid-size countries export profiles (see Box 1 and Appendix Table 6) except that the share of clothing in total exports from the latter registered a 5 percentage point increase in the 1990s. This increase was almost entirely due to the remarkable expansion in clothing exports from Madagascar whose share rose ten-fold (to 34 percent) in the 1990s. 1. Changes in the Concentration of Exports Maior Point No major expansion occurred in the diversity of products exported by most of the Sub- Saharan African countries, although there are one or two exceptions like Madagascar and Kenya. Indeed, the product composition of some of the African countries' exports may have become more concentrated. Africa's recent trade performance was strongly influenced by exports of traditional products which appear to have experienced remarkably buoyant global demand in the mid-1990s. Somewhat surprisingly, the geographic destinations of African exports became less concentrated as the relative importance of OECD markets diminished. Evidence shows developing countries often need to diversify the products they export and the geographic destinations and origins of their trade since countries exporting a narrow range of products may be vulnerable to major adverse developments in international supply or demand. This problem may be especially acute for some primary commodities which are prone to global gluts or shortages. Similarly, countries whose trade is highly concentrated geographically may be vulnerable to the abuse of monopoly power by other nations. For example, Yeats (1990) shows that former French colonies in Africa source a Box 1 22 The Importance of Manufactures in the Middle Sized African Countries' Exports As a group the major difference in the manufactures exports of larger and middle sized African countries' relates to the relative importance of this exchange. As shown below, manufactures currently account for only about 13 percent of all exports from the latter which is almost one half the corresponding share for the large African countries. Also, several of the mid-sized countries (Malawi, Mauritania and Uganda) have an extremely limited export base as manufactures account for less than 3 percent of their total trade. Share in Total Exports (%) Textiles and Clothing All Manufactures Exporter 1985 1998 1985 1998 Benin 0.1 2.8 2.3 4.6 Ethiopia 0.2 0.5 10.4 9.6 Guinea 0.0 0.0 11.0 21.8 Madagascar 6.6 36.4 10.4 41.0 Malawi 3.1 0.5 3.4 1.5 Mali 0.2 0.3 16.1 7.2 Mauritania 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 Mozambique 0.9 3.5 38.1 9.1 Senegal 1.1 0.7 6.2 7.8 Sudan 2.3 3.2 12.8 7.4 Tanzania 3.4 4.2 7.6 11.2 Togo 0.2 0.3 4.0 10.6 Uganda 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.9 All Above Countries 1.5 6.1 7.9 13.4 While many of the newly industrialized countries (NICs) relied heavily on textile and clothing exports in the initial stages of their development the above statistics show these products are generally of minor importance in exports from the mid-sized countries. Madagascar is the sole exception where their share rose from 6.6 in 1985 to 36.4 percent in 1998. This rise was, in part, due to a relocation of production capacity from Mauritius to take advantage of lower wage costs and to circumvent some MFA quotas. 23 disproportionately high share of their imports from France and, consequently, pay well above average prices for these goods. Have the African countries made progress in broadening the products or geographic destinations of their exports? Table 3.4 presents three measures of the African countries' 1990 and 1998 product export concentration. The first is simply a "count" of the number of four-digit SITC classification products exported. To reduce potential biases associated with marginal items, a four-digit product was not included unless it accounted for at least I percent of a country's exports. Two other concentration measures are also shown. The first is the share of total exports accounted for by the largest four-digit product - the second is the combined share of the three largest items. These indices have been used in numerous UN publications to measure export concentration. Finally, the table also identifies the individual products classified as new export items. Table 3.4 generally indicates no major changes in the commodity concentration of exports occurred over 1990-1998 although there is considerable variation in some of the individual countries experience. All three concentration indices suggest the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Cote d'Ivoire's exports became more concentrated with the formers three-product ratio rising by about 16 points (to 88.9 percent). As mentioned, in the case of the Congo this is largely due to exports of diamonds. One product (petroleum) accounted for 60 percent of 1990 exports from Gabon and its 1998 share increased to 70 percent - a change which reflects a sizeable increase in export concentration. Similarly, the share of cocoa in the Cote d'Ivoire exports rose from 24 to 44 percent. The strongest evidence of deconcentration occurs for Madagascar in the mid-size country group (see Appendix Table 7) where the share of the three largest exports declined by about 33 percentage points from their 1990 level 24 Table 3.4 Changes in the Concentration of Major African Countries Exports: 1990 to 1998 | Number of Share in Total Exports (%) Items Exported' Largest Product Three Largest Exporter 1990 1998 1990 1998 1990 1998 New Export Products over the 1990-96 Period2 Angola 6 5 86.5 84.6 96.4 96.3 None Cameroon 15 13 41.0 27.9 65.9 42.6 None Democratic Republic Congo 14 12 25.8 61.3 61.8 78.1 Nonferrous metal waste, Crude vegetable material nes Republic of Congo 9 12 70.7 69.4 88.2 81.7 Petroleum gases, Nonferrous ore nes, Nonferrous metals nes Cote d'lvoire 20 15 23.9 43.6 51.8 60.5 None Gabon 6 7 59.8 70.5 86.5 94.7 Shaped lumber, Veneer sheets Ghana 15 17 34.0 32.9 70.3 54.1 Prcpared fish, Frozen fish, Palm Oil, Furniture, Green Coffee, Petroleum Gases Kenya 19 26 30.6 29.9 62.4 59.0 Prepared fish, Knit trousers, Shell fish, Tobacco, Men's Shirts, Cement, Toys and Games, Salted fish Liberia 6 6 40.5 65.2 71.5 93.0 Petroleum gases Mauritius 24 20 31.4 22.9 55.7 48.9 Frozen Fish, Garters, Woven cotton, Synthetic precious stones, Passenger motor vehicles, wine, Fish fillets, Pulpwood, Frozen Fish, Iron plate, Bovine meat Nigeria I 1 90.1 87.2 94.8 92.1 None South Africa 32 35 15.3 10.4 34.5 28.4 Chairs, Gas filters, Motor vehicle parts, Passenger motor vehicles, Wine, Fish fillets, Pulp wood, Frozen fish, Iron plate, Bovine meat Zambia 7 4 86.8 40.6 93.0 70.5 Metal waste, Cut flowers, Green coffee Zimbabwe 24 25 20.0 25.8 45.7 44.1 Jewelry, Fresh vegetables, Precious metal ores, Pepper, Oranges, Woven cotton I________ ________ ________ _ ______ I______ I_________ I___________ I_________ I___________ fab ric 'Items are defined at the four-digit level of the SITC Revision I system. To be included in the tabulation of an export product the item had to account for one half of one percent or more of all exports. 2These item's share went from under to over one half of one percent during the 1990 to 1998 period. 25 (approximately 67 percent). In the late 1980s, coffee and spices accounted for more than 50 percent of Madagascar's exports as opposed to about 20 percent in 1998. While there are exceptions (like Madagascar) the statistics in Table 3.4 and Appendix Table 7 suggest that no major general deconcentration of African export structures occurred over the interval.14 In the mid-size African countries only 4 of the 14 exporters registered a 10 percentage point or more decrease in heir three product concentration ratio while the same number had an equivalent increase. Among the larger SSA countries only three recorded a 10 point decrease in this ratio - the same number had an equivalent increase. In short, the country experience is mixed but the data fail to identify a general trend toward a broader export base or the deconcentration of SSA exports. There are reasons why countries are concerned about the geographic concentration of their trade. Those whose foreign commerce is dependent on a few partners may be subject to the exercise of some monopoly power, and may also have a more limited ability to access some specialized products most suitable to their requirements. Countries heavily dependent on a few partners as suppliers may be at above average risk in periods of foreign hostilities or other supply disruptions. Does the evidence suggest Africa is becoming more diversified in its geographic destinations of exports, or origins of its imports? Table 3.5 employs IMF Direction of Trade (DOT) statistics to analyze the geographic destinations of the large African country exports in from the mid-1980s to 1998. Clearly, some SSA countries saw a marked reduction in the importance of industrial markets as destinations for their exports. Republic of 14 This may, at first, appear at odds with the statistics in Table 3.3 which show an impressive increase in the share of manufactures in some SSA country exports. Examination of the underlying data shows the rise in the relative importance of manufactured goods was generally due to an export expansion of established items and not the development of new product lines. 26 Table 3.5. Recent Changes in the Geographic Concentration of African Exports I _________ Share of Total Exports Destined For: Industrial Of which: Developing Of which: Exporter/Year Countries France | Japan | Germany U.K. U.S.A. Countries Africa Asia Middle East Americas Angola 1985 80.3 0.3 -- 0.7 7.5 45.8 18.7 -- 0.8 14.3 1990 89.2 16.6 1 .7 7.9 0.3 66.5 10.8 1.0 -- -- 4.2 1995 88.7 2.6 0.4 7.4 1.0 69.7 11.3 0.3 7.5 3.4 1998 79.0 2.8 0.5 1.7 0.3 61.8 20.9 2.2 14.9 -- 3.9 Cameroon 1985 85.3 21.8 1.6 6.2 0.8 8.1 14.9 10.6 0.7 0.1 -- 1990 83.9 32.6 0.4 4.2 0.6 14.8 15.7 9.2 5.7 0.2 0.1 1995 75.2 22.0 1.4 4.8 2.1 2.3 24.8 15.5 5.7 0.1 2.2 1998 77.6 15.7 0.5 2.8 3.2 2.7 21.4 10.5 9.2 0.2 0.3 Democratic Rep. Congo 1985 83.4 1.1 3.0 1.8 0.5 13.9 16.2 11.8 3.7 0.1 0.1 1990 88.3 6.4 1.6 5.8 1.1 11.7 11.7 8.2 2.8 0.3 0.2 1995 88.2 2.5 4.7 3.8 1.0 16.2 11.8 8.1 2.9 0.1 0.1 1998 83.8 1.1 3.0 1.8 0.5 13.9 16.2 11.8 3.7 0.1 0.3 Republic of Congo 1985 94.7 10.9 -- 0.3 0.1 60.0 5.3 3.4 1.7 -- -- 1990 82.7 12.7 0.2 2.0 0.4 35.2 16.2 7.7 7.8 0.1 -- 1995 72.1 2.6 0.4 1.5 0.4 22.5 27.9 2.9 21.2 0.1 0.4 1998 54.0 4.0 0.2 7.4 0.7 19.3 46.0 1.6 40.6 0.1 0.2 Cote d'lvoire 1985 73.2 15.6 1.0 5.0 4.1 11.0 23.3 13.2 4.6 -- 0.1 1990 61.3 7.4 1.7 6.8 3.2 5.9 36.7 31.9 3.2 0.6 -- 1995 67.2 17.5 0.5 4.9 3.3 3.8 32.1 22.7 4.2 0.6 0.6 1998 60.9 17.0 0.3 4.9 2.3 9.0 37.1 28.6 3.4 -- 1.0 Gabon 1985 76.1 28.7 0.7 2.0 2.7 23.8 23.4 4.6 9.9 0.3 4.8 1990 81.6 15.7 1.9 0.9 0.1 13.9 17.5 3.6 2.4 1.2 10.0 1995 85.6 11.5 4.2 1.2 0.4 58.9 13.9 3.2 6.9 0.6 2.1 1998 73.0 11.8 1.7 1.0 0.3 50.3 20.0 2.8 10.1 0.4 5.9 27 Table 3.5. Continued Share of Total Exports Destined For: Industrial | Of which: | Developing | Of which: Exporter/Year Countries France | an | German | U.K. | U.S.A. Countries Africa 1 Asia | Middle East | Amercas Ghana 1985 75.7 0.8 13.1 8.2 27.5 11.0 15.6 5.9 6.4 0.3 -- 1990 83.9 3.6 5.0 31.5 13.6 13.0 10.2 2.1 3.6 1.7 1.6 1995 71.5 7.8 4.0 12.0 14.7 11.5 23.8 14.7 6.3 0.7 -- 1998 64.6 5.1 3.3 6.7 11.7 7.0 30.3 16.8 7.0 1.0 -- Kenya 1985 58.1 2.5 0.9 12.3 19.1 7.7 33.8 20.6 8.6 2.7 0.6 1990 58.7 2.9 1.5 11.8 18.4 4.7 36.4 23.8 8.2 3.8 0.1 1995 47.3 3.2 1.5 9.2 11.8 5.0 47.5 31.0 9.9 6.0 0.2 1998 44.6 2.7 1.0 6.1 15.0 4.4 52.0 33.4 12.2 5.7 -- Liberia 1985 68.4 5.6 6.3 20.3 0.8 11.1 31.6 1.3 25.2 0.5 2.3 1990 86.4 3.2 6.3 1.1 2.4 13.6 0.1 12.2 0.1 1.0 1995 81.5 3.4 0.1 0.1 1.2 18.5 2.4 6.6 -- 0.1 1998 54.8 8.6 2.5 0.3 2.7 45.2 1.7 39.0 -- -- Mauritius 1985 95.3 20.9 0.1 6.4 43.3 15.0 4.5 2.9 1.5 0.1 -- 1990 94.0 23.4 0.2 8.7 36.0 12.7 5.9 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.9 1995 89.9 21.2 0.6 5.8 34.3 14.8 7.9 5.8 1.7 -- 0.3 1998 91.5 19.5 0.6 5.7 33.0 16.7 8.5 6.3 1.6 0.2 0.3 Nigeria 1985 73.4 9.9 -- 12.7 4.8 18.3 26.4 3.6 0.4 -- 20.6 1990 90.1 7.2 1.2 8.5 4.1 40.2 9.7 4.9 0.5 -- 4.0 1995 79.1 6.3 1.0 4.8 2.2 39.1 20.9 8.9 6.9 0.1 4.6 1998 64.6 5.7 0.7 2.5 1.8 35.2 35.3 10.8 14.0 0.1 9.9 South Africa 1985 42.4 1.7 7.8 3.5 5.9 8.3 12.3 4.4 5.2 0.7 0.6 1990 43.1 2.1 6.7 4.8 6.0 7.5 12.5 5.8 4.6 0.8 0.7 1995 41.3 1.2 5.0 4.4 8.1 4.8 30.6 13.5 11.6 2.4 2.1 1998 46.0 1 .9 6.1 6.2 6.1 8.3 28.9 13.2 10.5 2.1 1.9 *Excludes South Africa due to the high percentage of trade which is not allocated geographically. Source: Computed from Intemational Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade Statistics. 28 Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya and Zambia are examples - while a contrary pattem for SACU is evident (the latter is almost certainly due to the lifting of sanctions). Unlike product diversification, where relatively few important changes occurred, there appear to have been significant shifts in the destinations of many Afiican exports, often, as in the case of Ghana and Kenya this has been toward the region. 5 A similar pattern is evident in many of the mid-sized African countries export profiles, in fact, dramatic changes occurred in the case of Benin where the industrial countries market share fell by 70 percentage points. A more extensive analysis of the factors promoting these shifts are beyond the scope of the present study, but clearly a more detailed investigation is warranted. Such an analysis should also consider the possibility that some negative factors were responsible for some of the geographic shifts. For example, Zambia suffered a major erosion of its market share for unwrought copper in OECD markets due to a loss of competitiveness connected, at least partially, with the nationalization of mines. These competitive losses caused the relative importance of non-industrial markets to increase. 1 6 2. Competitive Factors and the Change in African Exports Major Point Longer-term analyses of Africa 's trade performance shows the region experienced major export losses due to erosion of its market shares in industrial markets. A decomposition of the African countries 1990-1994 and 1994-1998 export performance into supply and demand components shows that competitive losses continue to occur in both periods, but they were substantially lower ($0.5 as opposed to $5.3 billion) during 1994-1998. The underlying statistics also show that 1993-96 witnessed a remarkable expansion in demand for many of the key 15A similar analysis for imports reveals considerably smaller shifts in the geographic origins of trade as most SSA countries continue to be primarily dependent on Europe. Tied aid may be a factor preventing Africa from diversifying its import sources. The extent to which some African countries have been able to re-orient the direction of exports comes as something of a surprise since it was postulated that the existing North-South pattern of liner conference routes would tie many developing countries to a relatively few OECD centers. 160ne potentially interesting issue is whether an association exists between the measures of product diversification (Table 3.4) and the geographic measures. Was the increase in the relative importance of non-industrial markets for a country (say) like Cameroon accompanied by an increase in the number of products exported. Several regression tests suggest no general relation exists. When the change in the number of products exported by each African country was regressed on the change in the share of total exports destined for industrial markets an R2 of 0.05 resulted and the t statistic for the product share variable was far from significant. 29 products Africa exports with world trade in coffee, cocoa and cotton expanding at a rate at least 50 percent faster than average for all goods. This expansion in commodity trade appears to have slowed in 1997 or 1998 due, at least in part, to the EastAsian crisis. The preceding analysis (Table 2.3 and Appendix Table 5) showed some SSA countries' global export shares may have recently stabilized although data for additional years is required before this can be firmly established. This observation raises two questions: (i) is this potential stabilization primarily the result of an improved ability to compete, or (ii) is it the result of higher than normal changes in demand. If recent aggregated demand for the types of products Africa exports grew faster than average, an improved ability to compete might not be the main reason for the apparent stabilization in some African countries global export shares.17 Table 3.6 presents some initial relevant information by showing the value and share of each large African country's major exports in 1990 and 1998, the cumulative share of each item in its total exports along with its global market share in 1990. Finally, the rightmost colunm of the table shows the ratio of the country's global market share for each item in 1998 relative to its share in the 1990 base period. A ratio above unity indicates the country improved its competitive position for the product, while lower values indicates its position deteriorated. For example, the table shows Angola exported $260 million worth of non-industrial diamonds in 1990 and these goods accounted for about 7 percent of all exports. The 1990 exports from Angola represented just under one percent of world diamond trade, while its 1998 17Ng and Yeats (1996) determined that, over the last three decades, the global export growth rate for goods Africa exports was approximately 7.4 percent per year or about 4 percentage points below that for world trade. This study also determined that, over the period from the early 1960 to early 1990s, Africa experienced sizeable erosion of its market shares for its traditional exports. 30 Table 3.6. Changes in the Importance and Competitive Position of Major Products Exported by African Countries: 1990 to 1998 1990 Ex orts 1 1998 Exports 1998 ImportMarketShare* Exporter/SITC/Commodity Value ($000) Share (%) Value ($000) Share (%) Cumulative Share 1990 1998 Ratio ANGOLA Total Exports 3,882,534 100.0 3,494,093 100.0 333.0 Crude Petroleum 3,488,182 89.8 2,952,724 89.9 89.8 1.852 1.016 667.2 Non-industrial Diamonds 259,723 6.7 351,500 6.7 96.5 0.960 1.054 334.4 Fuel Oils, nes 61,482 1.6 57,180 1.6 98.1 0.412 1.066 CAMEROON Total Exports 2,077,425 100.0 1,866,496 100.0 333.0 Crude Petroleum 1,004,056 48.3 519,223 27.8 27.8 0.533 0.621 247.2 Saw Logs 206,701 9.9 368,145 19.7 47.5 4.586 2.053 248.3 Shaped Lumber 79,210 3.8 192,516 10.3 57.9 1.453 1.839 072.1 Cocoa Beans 130,484 6.3 164,836 8.8 66.7 6.243 0.822 057.3 Bananas and Plantains 60,383 2.9 112,207 6.0 72.7 1.438 1.272 071.1 Green or Roasted Coffee 157,713 7.6 107,763 5.8 78.5 2.004 0.393 263.1 Raw Cotton 70,512 3.4 86,525 4.6 83.1 1.030 1.187 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC CONGO Total Exports 1,864,570 100.0 1,104,562 100.0 667.2 Non-industrial Diamonds 273,522 14.7 677,107 61.3 61.3 1.011 1.929 689.9 Base Metals, nes 111,938 6.0 107,706 9.8 71.1 8.736 0.449 333.0 Crude Petroleum 196,935 10.6 78,402 7.1 78.1 0.105 0.478 071.1 Green or Roasted Coffee 183,708 9.9 57,429 5.2 83.3 2.335 0.180 247.2 Saw Logs 37,817 2.0 32,538 2.9 86.3 0.839 0.992 248.3 Shaped Lumber 21,436 1.1 14,493 1.3 87.6 0.393 0.512 287.9 Non-ferrous Ores 6,519 0.3 12,877 1.2 88.8 0.249 2.235 682.1 Unwrought Copper 841,928 45.2 10,025 0.9 89.7 7.563 0.012 COTE D' IVOIRE Total Exports 2,498,959 100.0 3,518,144 100.0 072.1 Cocoa Beans 714,591 28.6 1,528,524 43.4 43.4 34.187 1.392 072.3 Cocoa Butter and Paste 164,016 6.6 298,720 8.5 51.9 10.229 1.242 071.1 Green or Roasted Coffee 160,151 6.4 298,185 8.5 60.4 2.035 1.071 248.3 Shaped Lumber 252,276 10.3 253,010 7.2 67.6 4.720 0.744 31 Table 3.6. Continued 1990 Exports 1998 Exports [ 1998 [ Import Market Share* Exporter/SITC/Commodity Value ($000) Share (%) Value ($000) Share (%) Cumulative Share 1990 1998 Ratio 037.1 Prepared Fish 123,624 4.9 229,552 6.5 74.1 3.416 1.177 057.9 Fresh Fruit 95,092 3.8 121,403 3.5 77.5 1.596 0.894 263.1 Raw Cotton 126,883 5.1 118,939 3.4 80.9 1.853 0.907 057.3 Bananas and Plantains 76,755 3.1 118,157 334 84.3 1.827 1.054 232.0 Natural Rubber 65,531 2.6 76,088 2.2 86.4 1.647 1.029 GABON Total Exports 2,559,822 100.0 2,287,589 100.0 70.5 1.244 0.827 333.0 Crude Petroleum ,950,516 76.2 1,612,533 70.5 87.1 6446 1.507 247.2 Saw Logs 252,041 9.8 379,796 16.6 94.7 42.055 0.709 287.7 Manganese Ore 246,110 9.6 174,528 7.60. 524.1 Radioactive Elements 42,794 1.7 22,579 1.0 . . 0.528 GHANA Total Exports 1,169,944 100.0 1,498,749 100.0 32.5 14.786 1.024 072.1 Cocoa Beans 309,064 26.4 486,458 32.5 43.8 0.000 792.4 Aircraft, nes 0 0.0 169,540 11.3 53.4 1.602 0.450 684.1 Unwrought Aluminum 229,178 19.6 143,892 9.6 62.3 1.796 1.031 248.3 Shaped Lumber 97,875 8.4 133,314 8.9 68.1 3.261 1.126 072.3 Cocoa Butter 52,291 4.5 86,379 5.8 73.6 0.000 11 037.1 Prepared Fish 3 0.0 83,047 5.5 78.9 0.379 0.607 667.2 Non-industrial Diamonds 102,439 8.8 79,813 5.3 2 . 2.6 634. 1Veneer Sheets 15,236 1.3 53,505 3.6 82.5 I.079 2.186 KIENYA Total Exports 997,220 100.0 1,364,261 100.0 3719661.185 071.1 GreenCfe 3 19,633 32.1 445,748 32750.9 2.774 0.653 292.7 Te CutFowfers 218,279 21.9 247,634 18.2 60.3 1.291 2.099 292.7 Cut Flowers ~~~~~44,472 4.5 128,461 9.4 6. .5 .4 054.5 Other Fresh Vegetables 46,385 4.7 89,322 6.5 .7 1 0.750 1.243 058.9 Prepared Fruit 48,738 4.9 66,208 4.9 71.7 0.642 0.2993 034.4 Fish Fillets 4878478,2 75.2 0.697 1°.2998 058.5 Fruit or Vegetable Juice 25,430 2.6 47,610 3.5 76.4 0.243 1.233 037.1 Prepared Fish 11,585 1.2 17,338 1.3 77.5 0.001 309.373 056.5 Preserved Vegtabes31 0.0 15,129 1.1 78.6 0.200 1.850 056.5 Preserved Vegetables 6,418 0.6 15,088 1.1 79.7 0200 2.916 842.3 Trousers 2,713 0.3 14,277 1.0 00 3177 0.924 057.9 Fresh Fruit 10,544 1.1 13,911 1.0 80.7 0.177 0.392 292.9 Crude Vegetable Material 22,660 2.3 13,467 1.0 8. .3 .5 32 Table 3.6. Continued 1990 Ex ports 1998 Expo ts 1998 Import Market Share* Exporter/SITC/Commodity Value ($000) Share (%) Value ($000) Share (%) Cumulative Share 1990 1998 Ratio LIBERIA Total Exports 2,196,136 100.0 1,233,545 100.0 793.2 Ships and Boats 1,296,624 59.0 805,343 65.3 65.3 12.414 0.664 667.2 Non-industrial Diamonds 395,290 18.0 289,629 23.5 88.8 1.459 0.569 232.0 Natural Rubber 72,810 3.3 52,008 4.2 93.0 1.830 0.631 247.2 Saw Logs 146,276 6.7 28,707 2.3 95.3 3.254 0.233 MAURITIUS Total Exports 1,198157 100.0 1,661,809 100.0 061.1 Raw Sugar 327,684 27.3 380,714 22.9 22.9 7.520 1.224 845.1 Jerseys and Pullovers 195,276 16.3 220,128 13.2 36.1 1.291 0.642 846.2 Cotton Undergarments 100,270 8.4 211,261 12.7 48.9 1.305 0.841 842.3 Men's Trousers 56,988 4.8 146,738 8.8 57.7 0.658 1.427 844.1 Men's Shirts 76,335 6.4 114,765 6.9 64.6 1.209 0.875 843.9 Other Cloterng GArmesonts 44,659 3.7 76,785 4.6 69.2 0.326 1.071 845.9 Other Clothing Accessoies 34,820 2.9 61,753 3.7 72.9 0.409 0.878 846.3 Undergarments 31,172 2.6 57,210 3.4 76.4 1.055 0.992 NIGERIA Total Exports 13,348,285 100.0 9,589,974 100.0 Crude Petroleum 12,416,277 93.0 8,333,885 86.9 86.9 6.594 0.806 Cocoa Beans 36,730 1.0 239,868 2.5 89.4 6.541 1.142 Petroleum Lubricants 0.0 0.0 229,366 2.4 91.8 0.000 Fuel Oils, nes 219,692 1.6 85,706 0.9 92.7 1.472 0.447 SOUTH AFRICAN CUSTOMS UNION Total Exports 15,341,465 100.0 22,933,835 100.0 971.0 Non-Monetary Gold 2,131,081 13.9 2,322,993 10.1 10.1 12.606 0.737 681.2 Platinum 2,217,622 14.5 2,308,612 10.1 20.2 36.647 0.733 322.2 Coal 1,364,367 8.9 1,745,906 7.6 27.8 7.871 1.219 671.6 Ferro-Alloys 804,596 5.2 1,110,906 4.8 32.6 14.572 1.100 667.2 Non-industrial Diamonds 747,121 4.9 1,037,958 4.5 37.1 2.762 1.082 684.1 Aluminum Alloys 92,209 0.6 626,131 2.7 39.9 0.645 4.872 281.5 Iron Ore 387,142 2.5 474,614 2.1 41.9 5.128 1.075 33 Table 3.6. Continued 1990 Ex orts 1998 Exp ts 1998 Import Market Share* Exporter/SITC/Commodity Value ($000) Share (%) Value ($000) Share (%) Cumulative Share 1990 1998 Ratio 287.9 Other Non-Ferrous Ores 411,109 2.7 392,745 1.7 43.7 15.684 1.081 821.1 Chairs and Parts 36,520 0.2 330,977 1.4 45.1 0.359 4.634 057.5 Grapes 125,420 0.8 311,906 1.4 46.5 5.166 1.915 743.6Liquid Gas 11,577 0.1 294,785 1.3 47.7 0.253 12.966 672.7 Iron Coils 40,119 0.3 277,717 1.2 49.0 0.402 4.754 057.9 Fresh Fruit 193,380 1.3 271,614 1.2 50.1 3.245 0.984 ZAMBIA Total Exports 1,100,028 100.0 511,624 100.0 682.1 Copper Alloys 948,670 86.2 207,680 40.6 40.6 8.522 0.221 689.9 Base Metals, nes 55,398 5.0 119,403 23.3 63.9 4.323 1.007 651.3 Cotton Yarn 4,106 0.4 33,610 6.6 70.5 0.085 5.510 288.1 Nonferrous Metals, nes I 0.0 32,188 6.3 76.8 0.000 931.0 Special Transactions 840 0.1 20,416 4.0 80.8 0.002 10.723 292.7 Cut Flowers 939 0.1 13,643 2.7 83.5 0.027 10.550 061.1 Raw Sugar 0 0.0 12,367 2.4 85.9 0.000 ZIMBABWE 1,166,703 100.0 1,350,751 100.0 0.038 Total Exports 223,559 19.2 347,591 25.7 25.7 7.102 1.095 121.2 Tobacco Stripped 164,048 14.1 172,398 12.8 38.5 2.971 0.838 671.6 Ferro-Alloys 119,991 10.3 74,432 5.5 44.0 3.804 0.650 683.1 NRckel Alloys 79,216 6.8 65,933 4.9 48.9 1.157 0.805 971 0 Non-Monetary Gold 51,084 4.4 63,923 4.7 53.6 0.302 0.846 2921.7 CutnFlowetrs God12,901 1.1 61,246 4.5 58.1 0.374 3.449 061.1u Ra oweSgrs 62,357 5.3 56,184 4.2 62.3 1.431 0.951 061.1 To Raw Sugar 45,861 3.9 44,465 3.3 65.6 3.273 0.952 121.1 Tobacco Not Stripped 211 0.0 33,494 2.5 68.1 0.002 102.1 897.3 Jewelry 16,411 1.4 32,606 2.4 70.5 0.209 1.143 071. I Green or Roasted Coffee I I I, *The 1998 import market share ratio is the country's 1998 import share for that product relative to its share in 1990. Source: Computed from African partner countries statistics as reported in United Nations COMTRADE records. 34 world trade share was 5.4 percent higher than that in the earlier period. The above unity market share ratio indicates Angola became somewhat more globally competitive for diamonds. Initially focusing on each country's largest export product a relevant question is how, and in what direction, did their market shares generally change. Table 3.6 suggests that some countries (like Cote d' Ivoire for cocoa and Kenya for tea) became more competitive as their 1998 global market shares were considerably higher than in 1990. However, no general trend is discernable in the share change statistics as seven of the large SSA country ratios are above unity and seven are below. Similar tabulations for each African country's top three export products also fails to reveal a general trend as almost the same number of market share increases and decreases occurred. Concerning the latter, the most striking erosion of market shares occurred for Zambia's global export of copper which is now at approximately one-fifth its 1990 level. A roughly similar pattern is observed in the statistics for the mid-sized African countries (Appendix Table 9) where one half of the exporters experienced market share increases in their major products and the same number had declines. Benin, Ethiopia, and Madagascar stand out as having an exceptionally strong competitive performance for their major products that generated significant increases in export revenues (see Appendix Table 10). As noted, factors relating to both supply and demand can influence trade performance, and an important question concerns the net impact of each on the SSA countries' exports? This question can be addressed by estimating two summary statistics for a country which reflect demand and competitive conditions. 18 The influence of demand for traditional goods (defined as products exported in a specific base period) is measured by the change in the total value of world trade in these items. In calculating the influence of this factor one assumes a country maintains its global trade share for the commodity. 18A detailed description, and early application, of this procedure can be found in GATT (1966). The analysis also constituted a large part of Kravis (1970) classic analysis of the influence of trade on the 20th century growth of developing countries. 35 Specifically, if DOJ and DtJ represent world trade in product j, at time period o and t respectively, the change in exports of a given product that would be attributed solely to demand (Edj) is, (1) Ed,.= (So,XDtj - Doj) where sO is the share of the country (i) in global exports of product j in the base period o. To estimate the aggregate impact of demand the calculations reflected in equation (1) are summed over all goods exported. Equation (1), therefore, can be used to show the change in country i's total exports that would have occurred if only changes in demand took place. Second, the change in the competitive position of country i is measured by the difference between the exports that would have occurred in period t if the country's initial market share had not changed and those exports that were realized. This factor (E,) is, (2) Ej = (s9, - sj)(Dtj) where s,d is the share of the country in global exports of product j in period t. As before, to estimate the aggregate impact of any competitive changes these computations are summed over all goods exported. Equation (2) shows how much exports changed, above or below the level associated with pure demand changes, due to changes in a country's market shares. Any differences between changes in a country's total exports and the sum of these "demand" and "competitive" changes is due to product diversification. 19 Table 3.7. Impact of Competition, Demand and Diversification Factors on African Countries' Exports: 1990 to 1998 Factors Underlying the Factors Underlying the Exports ($ million) 1990-1994 Export Change 1994-1998 Export Change (S ($ mi llion)* milli on)* Exporter 1990 1994 1998 Overall Competitive Overall Competitive Demand Factor Demand Factor 19A simple illustrative example may help explain this analytical approach. Assume country i exports one product j and has a 20 percent share of the world market and exports of $20 million in 1988, and a 25 percent share with exports of $37.5 million in 1996. During this period world demand for i rose from $100 to $150 million. The change in i's exports attributed solely to changes in demand would be, (1') Edj = .20($150-$100) = $10million while the change due to the competitive factor is, (2') Ecj = (.25 - .20)$150 = $7.5 million. This example assumes that country i experienced no export diversification. 36 Angola 3,883 3,155 3,494 -489.8 -238.3 -47.2 387.3 Cameroon 2,072 1,725 1,866 57.4 -407.9 72.7 66.2 Democratic Republic Congo 1,869 1,232 1,097 161.7 -791.0 198.0 -328.2 Republic of Congo 1,239 1,167 1,182 -62.0 -6.8 31.5 -20.3 Cote d'Ivoire 2,497 2,645 3,502 611.0 -441.0 419.5 431.1 Gabon 2,558 2,392 2,288 -229.7 62.7 -41.7 -63.4 Ghana 1,002 1,270 1,496 217.6 -118.2 208.9 20.5 Kenya 993 1,172 1,302 250.7 -63.1 240.0 -61.7 Liberia 2,194 610 1,233 223.6 -1,809.6 223.6 477.1 Mauritius 1,198 1,286 1,661 256.8 -168.2 290.8 83.0 Nigeria 13,348 10,938 9,593 -1,786.4 -626.3 -156.8 -1,201.4 South Africa 13,210 14,771 20,628 1,435.0 772.0 3,596.7 1,690.8 Zambia 1,100 637 512 57.7 -520.6 178.2 -302.2 Zimbabwe 1,116 1,181 1,287 197.0 -177.3 182.5 -22.8 ALL ABOVE COUNTRIES 48,271 44,181 51,142 900.5 -4,533.6 5,396.8 1,156.0 Excluding South Africa 35,061 29,410 30,413 -534.5 -5,305.6 1,800.1 -534.8 *The demand factor isolates the effects of the increase or decrease in global demand for the African countries' exports. This factor shows the percentage increase or decrease in exports that would have occurred had there been no change in the countries' import market shares from the 1990 or 1994 base period. The competitive factor shows the percentage change in exports over or under that associated with demand changes that is due solely to changes in a country's import market shares. The diversification factor shows the percentage change in exports due to the introduction of new products. Any differences between changes in a country's total exports and the sum of these "demand" and "competitive" changes is due to product diversification or the fact that the sum of the reported three-digit SITC exports does not equal the reported COMTRADE total trade figures. Source: Computed from African partner countries' trade statistics as reported in United Nations COMTRADE. Table 3.7 summarizes the results when each of these equations was applied to statistics on all three- digit SITC products exported by the larger African countries over 1990-94 and 1994-1998. The table shows the total value of exports in each of the three years, and trade changes due to the supply and demand factors. For example, Kenyan 1990 exports, as reflected in the available partner data, totaled $993 million and the 1990-94 demand factor generated a potential increase in exports of about $250 million. However, a loss of competitive position for some Kenyan products resulted in export earning losses of $63 million. Although demand continued to be strong for the types of goods Kenya exports a continued erosion of its market shares for products such as green and roasted coffee (see Table 3.6) produced additional competitive losses of about $62 million over 1994-98. Although SACU is a nujor exception, the statistics in Table 3.7 generally point to a continued erosion of many African countries' competitive position which had a negative impact on overall export earnings (as previously noted the Liberian data largely reflects registration of flags of convenience and the 37 gains of Angola are largely due to trade in diamonds). During 1990-94, market shares for the larger countries (excluding SACU) produced export earning losses of over $5 billion while competitive losses of approximately one-half billion dollars occurred in the 1994-98 period. At best, the data may show that there has been a slowing down of African competitive losses, but statistics for additional years will be required before this can be conclusively established. Perhaps the most positive point to emerge from Table 3.7 concerns the unusually strong recent general demand for many African products which generated increased export earnings of $1.8 billion. Although primary product exports generally grow at below average rates during the 1994-98 period the value of exports of coffee, tea, spices and tobacco grew about as fast or faster that overall world trade. However, the rate of growth in demand appears to have fallen in 1997-98 due, in part, to developments in East Asia. Box 2 and Appendix Table 10 provides similar statistics for the middle size African countries. 38 Box 2 The Influence of Market Share Changes on the Middle Sized African Countries' Exports A roughly similar pattern is reflected in both the larger and middle sized African countries recent competitive profiles. As shown below, the latter, as a group, were able to reverse earlier competitive share export losses of close to three-quarters of a billion dollars and register 1994-98 gains. However, this is largely due to two countries, namely, Ethiopia (coffee) and Madagascar (clothing), and to a lessor extent Mali. Three countries (Mauritania, Senegal and Sudan) experienced competitive losses over both 1990-94 and 1994-98 while Uganda slipped from share gains in the former to losses in the latter period. Competitive Factor Export Effect ($ million) Exporter 1990-94 1994-98 Benin 28.2 61.7 Ethiopia -49.7 158.2 Guinea -7.7 0.5 Madagascar 104.9 110.8 Malawi -46.8 4.5 Mali -33.6 61.6 Mauritania -62.7 -19.8 Mozambique -316.0 12.9 Senegal -251.8 -45.3 Sudan -86.0 -47.4 Tanzania -45.7 21.8 Togo -58.2 15.7 Uganda 117.2 -62.1 All Above Countries -707.9 273.1 In short, for both the large and middle sized African countries, it appears that the best that can be said is that competitive share losses may have stabilized recently, but there is little evidence of a general enhancement in Africa's ability to compete. 39 IV. IMPLICATIONS OF AFRICA'S COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE Major Point Recent changes in Africa's exports indicates no general increase occurred in the number of industries in which most of the African countries have a "revealed" comparative advantage. These results are consistent with the previous findings that show Africa generally failed to diversify its export base and, in cases, its trade became more concentrated. Furthermore, little evidence exists that the relative importance of exports of processed domestically produced primary commodities increased, nor does the data indicate intra-industry trade between Africa and other countries has grown. As reflected in exports ofparts and components, links between Africa and the global economy are very weak and stagnant although the region has made somewhat larger use of imports of these goods. Measures of "revealed" comparative advantage (RCA) may help assess a country's export potential. One related question they can be used to address is whether African countries are in the process of extending the range of products in which they have a comparative advantage. If so, this could indicate the current problem of a high export dependence on a relatively few products may be reduced in the future. Another question is whether the African countries are developing a comparative advantage in products that will involve a higher value added content, have important job creating effects, or eventually improve export earnings? Alternatively, have their comparative advantage profiles been essentially stable and concentrated in primary commodity production because sufficient time has not yet elapsed for new lines to be developed, or if the business climate is still not conducive to new commercial ventures. The RCA index of country i for product j is measured by the item's share in the country's exports 20 relative to its share in world trade. The index has a simple interpretation. If it is less than unity this 20That is, if x,j is the value of country i's (global) exports of j, and Xj is the country's total (global) exports its revealed comparative advantage index is: (3) RCAij = (xj/X0)/(Xi,/Xtw) 40 implies the country is at a revealed comparative disadvantage in the product - if it exceeds unity the country has a revealed comparative advantage in the good. The measure was first developed by Balassa (1965) and has been employed in numerous policy studies, including efforts to assess prospects for the success of regional trade arrangements (Yeats 1998a). Any attempt to apply the concept to African countries should acknowledge the influence of major distortions which were characteristic of their trade and economic policies, and their influence on incentives. Revealed comparative advantage should be measured in an environment in which neither extemal trade constraints, like OECD tariffs and non-tariff barriers, distort African countries' export profiles, or where domestic market interventions and govemance policies do not cause major sectorial distortions or a general anti-export bias. World Bank studies show foreign barriers facing Africa's exports are relatively benign (Yeats et. al. 1997), but that domestic African trade interventions may reduce the ability of local producers to capitalize on foreign export opportunities (Ng and Yeats 1997). As such, the true comparative advantage of some African countries may differ from what the empirical results suggest. Table 4.1 provides summary statistics on the revealed comparative advantage of each SSA country in 1990 and 1998. The items listed were drawn from RCA calculations for 70 individual two-digit SITC processed products on the basis of two criteria: (i) their indices went from below to above unity where the w subscripts refer to world totals. RCA indices are sometimes computed only for processed goods or manufactures because trade in agricultural products is often distorted by export incentives or trade barriers which may obscure whether a country has a comparative advantage of disadvantage in these goods. 41 Table 4.1. Summary Statistics on the Revealed Comparative Advantage of African Countries 1998 RCA Indices Exporter/SITC/Product Exports ($000) 1990 1998 Change ANGOLA (Net RCA Change = 0) 33 Petroleum and Products 3,027,595 10.11 18.14 8.03 66 Nonmetal Mineral Products 351,508 2.95 5.06 2.11 CAMEROON (Net RCA Change = -1) 05 Vegetables and Fruit 120,693 1.78 4.46 2.68 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 312,571 24.50 25.71 1.21 21 Hides and Skins 470 1.30 0.23 -1.07 23 Crude Rubber 43,416 5.91 10.58 4.77 24 Cork and Wood 566,228 14.01 41.56 27.55 26 Textile Fibers 86,525 5.30 11.58 6.28 33 Petroleum and Products 544,660 5.64 6.11 0.47 63 Wood and Cork Manufactures 40,690 2.36 3.89 1.53 68 Nonferrous Metals and Products 82,406 2.67 2.29 -0.38 94 Zoo Animals and Pets 367 10.80 2.15 -8.65 DEMOCRATIC REP. CONGO (Net RCA Change =1) 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 61,342 16.00 8.52 -7.48 23 Crude Rubber 3,069 1.77 1.26 -0.51 24 Cork and Wood 47,095 3.16 5.84 2.68 27 Crude Fertilizers 3,769 2.50 1.11 -1.39 28 Metal Ores 24,113 1.03 2.29 1.26 29 Crude Animal & Vegetable Materials 10,272 1.61 2.30 0.69 33 Petroleum and Products 79,214 1.18 1.50 0.32 66 Nonmetal Mineral Manufactures 67,182 6.42 30.87 24.50 68 Nonferrous Metals and Products 129,475 23.54 5.65 -17.89 94 Zoo Animals and Pets 654 0.24 6.51 6.27 97 Non-monetary Gold 7,265 0.49 1.27 0.78 CONGO (Net RCA Change = 3) 06 Sugar and Honey 12,227 2.99 3.95 0.96 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 14,728 0.16 1.91 1.75 24 Cork and Wood 129,946 12.27 15.06 2.79 33 Petroleum and Products 862,581 7.82 15.28 7.46 34 Natural Gas 23,665 0.00 2.33 2.33 63 Wood and Cork Manufactures 23,639 4.69 3.57 -1.12 66 Nonmetal Mineral Manufactures 43,754 4.27 1.86 -2.41 68 Nonferrous Metals 38,216 0.02 1.67 1.65 COTE D' IVOIRE (Net RCA Change =0) 03 Fish and Preparations 244,935 6.57 7.44 0.87 05 Vegetables and Fruit 261,970 4.39 5.13 0.74 05 Sugar and Honey 4,122 1.82 2.48 0.66 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 2,190,879 70.18 68.72 -1.46 08 Animal Feeds 12,451 1.46 1.70 0.24 22 Vegetable Oil Seeds 2,788 2.01 2.24 0.23 23 Crude Rubber 76,880 9.56 11.93 2.37 24 Cork and Wood 259,695 14.65 20.25 5.60 26 Textile Fibers 120,270 7.94 12.69 4.75 42 Fixed Vegetable Oils 52,825 8.25 6.68 -1.57 63 Wood and Cork Manufactures 92,590 5.05 5.00 -0.05 66 Nonmetal Mineral Manufactures 44,836 1.75 2.02 1.27 42 Table 4.1. Continued 1998 RCA Indices Exporter/SITC/Product Exports ($000) 1990 1998 Change GABON (Net RCA Change = 0) 24 Cork and Wood 393,290 9.82 23.55 13.73 28 Metal Ore and Scrap 174,655 6.96 8.00 1.04 33 Petroleum and Products 1,618,104 8.41 14.81 6.40 51 Inorganic Chemicals 23,732 2.17 1.56 -0.61 63 Wood and Cork Manufactures 20,512 1.20 1.60 0.40 GHANA (Net RCA Change = 2) 03 Fish and Preparations 116,239 2.40 7.66 5.26 07 Coffee Tea and Cocoa 582,550 48.88 59.66 10.78 22 Vegetable Oil Seeds 10,493 0.49 2.28 1.79 23 Crude Rubber 3,442 1.11 1.04 -0.07 24 Cork and Wood 136,576 11.38 12.48 1.10 27 Crude Fertilizers 11,332 3.16 2.46 -0.70 28 Metal Ore and Scrap 33,864 2.79 2.37 -0.42 42 Fixed Vegetable Oils 20,079 0.27 3.95 3.68 63 Wood and Cork Manufactures 62,148 2.50 7.40 4.90 66 Nonmetal Mineral Manufactures 80,389 3.83 2.70 -1.13 68 Nonferrous Metals and Products 145,730 8.70 5.03 -3.67 79 Other Transport Equipment 170,575 0.01 5.56 5.55 94 Zoo Animals and Pets 579 3.98 4.23 0.25 97 Non-Monetary Gold 1,752 26.40 0.23 -26.17 KENYA (Net RCA Change = 1) 03 Fish and Preparations 88,814 2.93 6.44 3.51 05 Fruit and Vegetables 212,220 7.75 10.72 2.97 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 695,198 84.58 78.25 -6.31 09 Misc. Edible Products 8,317 0.76 1.99 1.23 12 Tobacco and Manufactures 12,757 0.57 2.72 2.15 21 Undressed Hides and Skins 10,903 5.68 7.25 1.57 26 Textile Fibers 13,716 2.36 2.51 0.15 27 Crude Fertilizers 7,688 2.12 1.83 -0.49 29 Crude Animal & Vegetable Materials 154,530 15.88 28.05 12.17 52 Inorganic Chemicals 5,736 1.48 0.63 -0.85 61 Leather 13,185 12.43 2.46 -9.97 94 Zoo Animals and Pets 346 1.81 2.78 0.97 LIBERIA (Net RCA Change = -1) 23 Crude Rubber 52,036 12.10 19.19 7.09 24 Cork and Wood 29,346 7.24 3.26 -3.98 28 Metal Ores and Scrap 4,537 5.74 0.39 -5.35 66 Nonmetal Mineral Manufactures 291,328 7.96 11.89 3.93 79 Other Transport Equipment 814,647 27.56 32.29 4.73 MAURITIUS (Net RCA Change = 0) 00 Live Animals for Food 3,057 0.00 1.19 1.19 03 Fish and Preparations 79,792 1.06 4.74 3.68 06 Sugar and Honey 389,381 81.09 89.47 8.38 66 Nonmetal Mineral Manufactures 34,093 0.91 1.03 0.12 83 Travel Goods and Handbags 5,612 1.31 0.99 -0.32 84 Clothing and Accessories 968,719 14.86 15.23 0.37 88 Photographic Equipment 28,553 2.90 1.53 -1.37 94 Zoo Animals and Pets 6,731 14.39 44.39 30.00 43 Table 4.1. Continued 1998 RCA Indices | Exporter/SITC/Product Exports ($000) 1990 1998 Change NIGERIA (Net RCA Change = 0) 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 279,126 1.85 4.47 2.62 23 Crude Rubber 34,896 2.82 1.66 -1.16 33 Petroleum and Products 8,738,370 10.48 19.10 8.62 61 Leather 128,635 1.63 3.42 1.79 SACU (Net RCA Change = 3) 04 Cereals and Preparations 44,874 1.43 0.22 -1.21 05 Vegetables and Fruit 1,426,238 3.70 4.30 0.60 06 Sugar and Honey 336,456 4.84 5.62 0.78 11 Beverages Including Wines 234,044 0.18 1.62 1.44 21 Hides and Skins 79,769 2.92 3.17 0.25 24 Cork and Wood 256,061 0.54 1.54 1.00 25 Paper Pulp 289,972 2.78 3.61 0.83 26 Textile Fibers 148,845 3.01 1.63 -1.38 26 Crude Fertilizers 554,697 7.01 7.89 0.88 28 Metal Ores 1,794,278 6.65 8.23 1.58 32 Coal and Coke 1,980,746 15.52 19.30 3.78 52 Inorganic Chemicals 512,669 3.41 3.38 -0.02 56 Manufactured Fertilizers 84,040 0.33 1.21 0.88 57 Explosives and Pyrotechnics 15,249 0.07 2.90 2.83 61 Dressed Leather 155,802 1.49 1.74 0.25 66 Nonmetal Mineral Manufactures 1,139,463 2.36 2.51 0.15 67 Iron and Steel 2,282,588 2.54 3.68 1.14 68 Nonferrous Metals 3,379,966 8.49 7.66 -0.83 82 Furniture and Parts 426,878 0.52 1.77 1.25 94 Zoo Animals and Pets 11,361 1.26 5.45 4.19 95 War Firearms 26,559 0.00 1.83 1.83 96 Non-monetary Gold 232.234 25.27 19.60 -5.67 ZAMBIA (Net RCA Change =7) 05 Fruit and Vegetables 9,754 0.36 1.31 0.95 06 Sugar and Honey 12,528 0.01 9.32 9.31 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 11,207 0.37 3.35 2.98 08 Animal Feeds 2,375 0.00 1.12 1.12 12 Tobacco and Manufactures 9,996 2.15 5.67 3.52 28 Metal Ores and Scrap 39,080 0.02 7.99 7.97 28 Crude Animal & Vegetable Material 13,745 0.20 6.63 6.43 65 Textile Yarn 37,120 0.28 2.64 2.36 66 Nonmetal Mineral Manufactures 3,902 1.02 0.38 -0.63 68 Nonferrous Metals 331,862 41.60 33.49 -8.11 94 Zoo Animals and Pets 289 0.00 6.19 6.19 ZIMBABWE (Net RCA Change =2) 00 Live Animals for Food 3,763 0.00 1.81 1.81 01 Meat and Preparations 39,714 0.80 3.81 3.01 04 Cereals and Preparations 2,115 2.75 0.17 -2.58 05 Fruit and Vegetables 51,778 1.24 2.65 1.41 06 Sugar and Honey 56,813 15.22 16.10 0.58 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 60,851 4.00 6.94 2.94 12 Tobacco and Manufactures 411,945 67.20 88.91 21.71 21 Hides and Skins 4,754 1.37 3.20 1.93 26 Textile Fibers 66,805 10.70 12.39 1.69 Table 4.1. Continued 1998 RCA Indices Exporter/SITC/Product Exports ($000) 1990 1998 Change ZIMBABWE (Continued) 27 Crude Fertilizers 34,330 11.85 8.29 -3.59 28 Metal Ores and Scrap 42,793 1.20 3.33 2.13 29 Crude Animal & Vegetable Material 64,043 2.67 11.77 9.10 32 Coal and Coke 6,528 0.00 1.08 1.08 61 Leather 20,250 1.94 3.83 1.89 67 Iron and Steel 181,568 5.98 4.96 -1.02 68 Nonferrous Metals 63,263 5.91 3.20 -2.71 94 Zoo Animals and Pets 537 2.03 4.37 2.34 97 Non-Monetary Gold 63,984 7.97 9.16 1.19 Source: Computed from African partner countries' data as reported in United Nations COMTRADE Records over this period (which would indicate the country gained a comparative advantage in the product), or (ii) the index fell below unity thereby indicating a comparative advantage was lost.2 1 In addition, a summary statistic - the "net industry RCA change" is shown for each country. This represents the sum of the number of industries in which each country gained a comparative advantage less the number of industries in which it was lost. Two important points emerge from these tabulations. First, there clearly has been no general expansion in the number of product groups in which most of the major African countries have a comparative advantage (Zambia and to a lessor extent SACU are exceptions).22 This is consistent with the previous statistics (see Table 3.4) showing no general increase in the diversity of Africa's exports. In fact, 7 of the 14 larger countries experienced no change, or a net reduction in, the number of industries in 21The two-digit SITC product groups listed in Table 3.8 where chosen to make the presentation more manageable and because this level of aggregation has sometimes been defined as an industry in other economic analyses. 22 The apparent increase in the number of industries in which Zambia has RCAs above unity is, in part, due to the major erosion that occurred in its competitive position for copper. In other words, the declining relative importance of copper exports from Zambia caused the relative importance of other goods to increase which raised the RCAs of some above unity. 45 which their RCA indices exceeded unity. Also, the products in which these countries have a comparative advantage in are still highly concentrated outside the manufactures group (normally defined as SITC 5 through 8 less nonferrous metals) . Similar statistics for the mid-sized African countries reveal a somewhat more negative situation (see Appendix Table 11). The RCA indices for 8 countries recorded net declines or no change, and in several cases the reductions were major. Ethiopia shed a comparative advantage in six product groups over 1990- 98 (intemal conflicts were likely an important contributing factor) while Madagascar, Mali, Mozambique and Tanzania lost a comparative advantage in four or five product groups.23 As would be expected from theory the African countries comparative advantage is still highly confined to goods that are natural resource based or labor intensive in production while skill or capital intensive products are largely missing from the tables. While both the product diversification and RCA indices show no major general expansion has occurred, one might still want to focus more closely on exports of processed natural resource intensive products. These items, like plywood and veneers, leather and rubber manufactures, or wrought metals, require major inputs of raw materials Africa produces. Africa may have a competitive advantage in the processed forms of some of these products (particularly those which involve labor intensive manufacturing techniques) since shipment of many bulky low value primary commodities may incur substantial nominal transportation costs. One might also want to focus on whether intra-industry trade increased since this would indicate whether Africa was successfully integrating into the global economy. 1. Natural Resource Based Exports 23These developments are not entirely negative. Madagascar sharply increased its comparative advantage and competitive position for a number of clothing products which increased its overall export earnings (see Appendix Table 10). Similar sharp increases occurred in Ethiopian RCAs for coffee and oilseeds. In such cases, export earning increases were primarily the result of established products and not competitive gains in new product lines 46 In both United Nations forums and multilateral negotiations like the Uruguay Round, many African countries expressed an interest in the further processing of domestically produced primary commodities as a means of stimulating industrialization and growth (see, for example, UNCTAD 1975). The rationale for such efforts is that local commodity processing might have important direct employment effects, linkages may develop between the processing industry and other sectors of the economy, it may reduce instability in export eamings and increase export revenues due to the higher value added content of processed goods (see Roemer 1979 or Yeats 1981 for a survey of relevant issues). Since African exports generally include a high share of unprocessed agricultural and mineral commodities, these countries often express an interest in the further processing of these goods before export.24 Have the African countries made any progress in shifting their exports toward processed commodities or increased their intemational competitiveness for these goods? Table 4.2 utilizes a commodity processing chain scheme developed by the World Bank (see Yeats 1991 for details) to analyze the magnitude of any such shifts in the major SSA countries exports (Appendix Table 12 provides similar statistics for the mid-sized countries). This classification scheme normally identified a primary, semi-processed, and processed stage for each commodity defined in terms of the SITC Revision I system (some chains like mineral fuels only differentiate between a primary and processed stage). For example, the cocoa processing chain differentiates between a primary stage product (cocoa beans), two intermediate stage products (cocoa powder and butter), and a final stage item (chocolate and chocolate products). For ease of exposition, the chains were aggregated into four major product groups, namely, foodstuffs,25 ores and minerals,26 mineral fuels,27 and other processed commodities (manufactures) 24An important issue is whether African and other developing countries have a comparative advantage in the further processing of some primary commodities. World Bank (1992) statistics show some commodity processing, like the fabrication of metals from ores, often involves highly capital intensive production techniques and developing countries are thought not to have a comparative advantage in these types of activities. 25Primary stage items in the foodstuffs chains include: fresh and frozen fish, fresh fruit and vegetables, cocoa beans, groundnuts, copra, palm kernels and crude palm oil. Final stage items include: meat and fish preparations, preserved fruit and vegetables, chocolate, refined groundnut, palm kernel, and palm oil. Intermediate stage products include: 47 before the data were tabulated.28 The table shows the value (and share) of the African countries' 1990 and 1998 exports in each stage of the processing chains, along with their import shares in global markets. Table 4.2 and Appendix Table 12 are consistent with the conclusions resulting from the analyses of export diversification and revealed comparative advantage in that no major shifts are observed in the share of processed commodities in total exports of the chains. In fact, some marked reductions are observed in the share of processed products in the mid-sized countries exports. Also, Africa's global import market shares for primary stage items were essentially static in all of the four aggregate commodity groups with the largest decrease (from 10.6 to 9.2 percent of world imports) occurring for cocoa powder and butter, crude and cake coconut and palm kernel oil. 26Primary stage items in the ores and metals chain include: iron ore, copper ore, bauxite, lead ore, and zinc ore. Intermediate stage items include: pig iron, alumina, unwrought aluminum, copper, lead and zinc. Final stage products include: steel ingots and rolling mill products, wrought copper, aluminum, lead and zinc. 27Crude petroleum constitutes the primary stage of this chain. Gasoline, kerosine and other refined petroleum products constitute the processed stage. 28Primary stage products include: natural rubber, wood in the rough, pulpwood, raw wool, hides and skins, raw cotton, raw jute and sisal and henequen. Intermediate stage products are: leather, plywood and veneers, wood pulp, wool and cotton yarn, and jute fabrics. Final stage products include: leather manufactures, rubber manufactures, wood manufactures, paper and paper articles, wool and cotton fabrics, jute sacks and bags, and cordage. 48 Table 4.2 Analysis of Changes in the Structure of Major African Countries' Primary and Processed Commodity Exports 1 _______________ 1990 African Exports 1998 African Exports Commoditv Group Share (%) Commodity Group Share (%) Value In Total African Africa's Import Shares Value In Total African Africa's Import Shares Commodity Group and Processing Stage (million) Exports of the hain in World Markets million) Exports of the Chain in World Markets FOODSTUFFS Primary Stages 4,853.6 83.5 4.2 7,600.5 82.9 4.9 Intermediate Stages 379.5 6.5 1.3 652.8 7.1 1.9 Final Stages 580.0 10.0 1.2 920.1 10.0 1.3 Total 5,813.1 9,173.4 ORES AND MINERALS Primary Stages 1,384.2 27.0 5.4 1,249.0 32.0 5.0 Intermediate Stages 3,122.1 60.9 4.5 1,900.7 48.7 2.1 Final Stages 621.1 12.1 1.0 752.9 19.3 0.9 Total 5,127.4 3,902.6 MINERAL FUELS Primary Stages 19,901.2 97.4 10.6 14,386.9 97.4 9.2 Final Stages 525.7 2.6 0.9 383.0 2.6 0.8 TOTAL 20,426.9 MANUFACTURES Primary Stages 1,953.3 54.2 5.5 1,721.4 44.7 5.2 Intermediate Stages 1,120.6 31.1 1.5 1,381.1 35.9 1.6 Final Stages 525.7 14.6 0.4 746.4 19.4 0.4 Total 3,599.7 1 1 Source: Computed from African partner countries data as reported in UN COMTRADE records. For information concerning the composition of the underlying processing chains used in the construction of the above statistics see Alexander J. Yeats, "Do Natural Resource Based Industrialization Strategies Convey Important (Unrecognized) Price Benefits for Commodity Exporting Developing Countries," World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 580, January 1991. 49 mineral fuels. In the intermediate and final stages of the four groups, the import market shares are also essentially flat or even declining (ores and metals).29 In short, the data fail to support the proposition that progress has been made in shifting the structure of SSA exports toward processed commodities, nor does the data suggest that Africa has generally improved its competitive position for either primary, semi-fabricated or processed commodities. 2. Changes in Intra-Industry Trade Maior Point Some analyses of factors influencing hie success or failure of efforts to promote industrialization and growth conclude a growing level of intra-industry trade plays an important positive role. Related studies show cross-country production sharing, as reflected in the exchange of parts and components, assists participating countries more fully integrate into global and regional markets, and may also act as a catalyst to industrialization and growth. However, with the exception of SACU, no meaningful increase in intra-industry trade or production sharing has yet taken place in Africa and the level of this form of economic activity remains very low. Several summary indices provide useful insights as to the extent intra-industry trade is changing. One such measure is the intra-industry trade ratio (see Braga, Safadi and Yeats 1994 for an application). This index ranges between zero and one with larger values indicating a greater degree of trade between firms in the same industry. Higher intra-industry trade ratios suggest that there is more scope to realize gains from specialization in differentiated products and that the country participating in this exchange is more fully integrating itself into the global economy.30 Although low levels of intra-industry trade is 29A 1.4 percentage point decline occurred for the African countries' exports of intermediate stage ores, minerals and metals. This decline is the result of Zambia's loss of competitive position for exports of unwrought copper.. 30The index is defined as, (4) IIT = I - ([Xijk - Mjk]/(Xijk + Mijk)] for one specific good where Xijk represents the exports of products from industry i from country j to country k and M,jk represents the imports of products from industry i by country j from country k and the numerator of the equation is in 50 generally observed in very poor countries an important question is whether this activity is increasing in Africa? A closely related activity involves global production sharing and international trade in parts and components. A recent World Bank study estimated global production sharing - a process that largely consists of intra-industry trade - now accounts for approximately 30 percent of world trade in manufactured goods and has become a major factor increasing the interdependence (integration) of countries (Yeats 1997). Production sharing involves the initiation of part of a manufacturing process for a specific good in one country and the transfer of the activity to another for further assembly. For example, electronic components may be produced in the United States, shipped to the Caribbean for further assembly, and then re-exported back to the US, or some third country. Published analyses of the consequences of these activities, which are often reflected in high intra-industry trade ratios, indicate they generally convey substantial benefits on all participating countries and may act as an important stimulus to developing countries' industrialization (US International Trade Commission 19881). Is this activity on the increase between the African and other countries?31 Table 4.3 fpesents intra-industry ratios for the larger African countries in 1990 and 1998. For comparison, the table also shows similar ratios for five countries which are at a more advanced stage of industrialization. The key point evident from the table is that an extremely small intra-industry trade base exists as most of the African countries' IIT ratios are under 0.1 (which is less than one-fifth those for Table 4.3: Intra-Industry Trade Ratios for Major Exporting African Countries, 1990 and 1998 I I I Intra-Industry Trade Ratios l absolute values. The analysis is confined to manufactured goods, that is, items classified in SITC groups 5 through 8 less nonferrous metals. 31The Global Coalition for Africa (1997, p. 22) suggests that the establishment of export processing zones (EPZs) may provide a catalyst to this type of activity within Africa. Export producers within EPZs have access to duty and tax free imported inputs, adequate infrastructure and utilities, a favorable and simplified regulatory environment, tax holidays and sometimes preferential financing. 51 Machinery & Other All Country Year Transport Eq. Manufactures Manufactures Angola 1990 0.027 0.008 0.016 1998 0.031 0.015 0.023 Cameroon 1990 0.028 0.039 0.035 1998 0.019 0.069 0.046 |Congo, Dem. Rep. 1990 0.013 1 0.024 0.019 1998 0.024 0.042 0.040 Congo,Rep. 1990 0.024 0.013 0.017 1998 0.035 0.036 0.036 Cote d Ivoire 1990 0.052 0.091 0.079 1998 0.027 0.100 0.071 iGabon 1990 1 0.032 0.058 1 0.046 1998 0.043 0.043 0.043 Ghana 1990 0.017 0.029 0.024 1998 0.345 0.067 0.221 Kenya 1990 0.040 0.141 0.084 1998 0.048 0.190 0.121 jLiberia 1990 1 0.597 1 0.038 1 0.542 1998 0.296 0.052 0.280 Mauritius 1990 0.130 0.176 0.167 1998 0.094 0.145 0.136 Nigeria 1990 0.020 0.061 0.041 1998 0.026 0.067 0.046 ISACU I 1990 1 0.114 0.312 1 0.223 1998 0.273 0.385 0.331 Zambia 1990 0.007 0.085 0.033 1998 0.045 0.057 0.051 Zimbabwe 1990 0.064 0.088 0.076 1998 0.049 0.129 0.095 iMemo Item: I I I Brazil 1998 0.614 0.491 0.558 Chile 1998 0.108 0.386 0.253 Korea, Rep. 1998 0.574 0.460 0.524 Turkey 1998 0.297 0.350 0.327 Taiwan, China I 1998 1 0.652 0.473 [ 0.580 Source: Computations based on partners' data from UN COMTRADE Statistics. Brazil, Korea or Taiwan (China). SACU records the highest intra-industry trade ratio (0.296) which places it on a par with Turkey, but about one-half the level for the Asian NICs. Also the 1990-1998 changes which 52 occurred in the IIT ratios were, with the exception of SACU, minimal.32 The statistics for the mid-sized African countries, with a few exceptions like Mozambique and Ethiopia, reflect some deterioration in the level of intra-industry trade (see Appendix Table 13). Overall, the data fail to suggest this type of exchange is currently developing within Africa. Empirical evidence shows global production sharing, in which several countries complete different stages of the fabrication of a manufactured good, has been growing considerably faster than overall trade in manufactures (Yeats 1998). Production sharing is viewed as having many positive attractions for the participating countries since it may allow them to capitalize on their comparative advantage in different stages of a manufacturing process. African countries that import parts and components for local assembly may find this activity allows them to conserve limited foreign exchange and also serve as an important source of job creation. A growing involvement in production sharing is also viewed as an indication that the participating country is being increasing integrated into the global economy. Have the African countries been able to make further use of this type of activity? Revision 2 of the Standard Intemational Trade Classification (SITC) system tabulates fairly comprehensive statistics on intemational trade in parts and components so it can be used to analyze recent trends in Africa's involvement in this exchange. Table 4.4 utilizes these data and shows the 1990 and 1998 value of parts and components in exports to, and imports from, Africa along with the shares of these items in total trade for several years during this interval. The data reveal several interesting points. First, SACU clearly dominates regional exports of these goods and accounts for 93 percent of all component exports and about three-quarters of African imports. Second, SACU's exports increased by more than 60 percent over 1990-1998 (and now stand at almost four and one-half billion dollars, but (with the possible exception of the Cote d'Ivoire) there is no indication of a similar degree of dynamism in any of the other countries' exports. 32 As previously noted, in 1998 Ghana was very active in the transfer and leasing of international aircraft. If this one 53 On the import side, the overall relative importance of trade in components actually declined somewhat over 1990-98, but the African countries are clearly making stronger use of this activity than on the export side (as noted, job creation in assembly and conservation of foreign exchange are likely motivating factors). However, like intra-industry trade, the data do not indicate the larger African countries have yet begun to exploit the potential for trade in these types of products in any meaningful way. Similar conclusions conceming the growth and relative importance of this activity are evident in the mid-size country statistics (see Appendix Table 14) item (aircraft) were excluded from the statistics the IIT ratio for Ghana would be little changed. 54 Table 4.4 Changes in Major African Countries Trade in Parts and Components from 1990 to 1998 |Value of Trade in Parts and Components| (Vl00) o Share of Parts and Components in Total Trade Trade Flow -African Country 1990 1998 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 African Countries' Exports Angola African Countries' Exports 783.9 7,571.7 0.02 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.22 Cangrola 1,230.5 1,407.3 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.15 0.09 Democratic Republic Congo 1,076.9 1,099.4 0.06 0.12 0.08 0.02 0.10 Republic of Congo 257.8 2,286.0 0.02 0.04 0.20 0.07 0.20 Cote d'Ivoire 1,188.1 5,337.7 0.06 0.17 0.24 0.54 0.20 Gabon 2,456.5 2,570.2 0.14 0.25 0.03 0.02 0.13 Ghana 3,447.7 2,602.5 0.31 0.54 0.45 0.34 0.18 Kenya 8,462.2 9,799.2 0.90 0.71 0.53 0.63 0.75 Liberia 762.5 162.0 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.01 Mauritius 8,453.3 7,265.4 0.92 0.86 1.52 0.92 0.55 Nigeria 6,937.7 12,489.2 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.14 South Africa 211,087.7 952,175.0 1.45 2.16 2.76 3.41 4.32 Zambia 735.4 408.8 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.09 Zimbabwe 5,880.8 4,041.3 0.52 0.96 0.58 0.22 0.31 African Countries' Imports Angola 176,458.5 267,650.4 13.12 8.70 16.30 14.92 17.04 Cameroon 72,540.8 71,251.3 11.55 10.69 11.22 12.41 10.75 Democratic Republic Congo 177,555.6 50,176.3 17.68 12.10 11.01 11.20 11.24 Republic of Congo 40,632.2 60,958.0 13.41 18.52 18.49 20.31 13.13 Cote d'lvoire 51,949.5 149,639.3 7.41 8.55 10.60 9.17 11.37 Gabon 46,899.2 71,271.1 16.86 16.64 22.86 16.89 18.86 Ghana 110,574.4 202,389.8 11.42 11.92 15.19 14.10 10.56 Kenya 280,132.1 179,761.7 17.83 14.25 12.79 10.76 9.87 Liberia 33,431.4 38,791.0 1.03 0.68 0.54 1.38 0.90 Mauritius 43,725.1 65,492.2 6.73 7.13 7.79 8.51 7.02 Nigeria 635,135.9 688,234.8 15.10 14.46 15.80 15.59 13.26 South Africa 2,789,099.0 4,466,501.0 24.37 21.80 22.88 19.82 21.48 Zambia 114,819.6 42,315.0 20.32 19.34 18.04 21.32 18.58 Zimbabwe 129,074.7 141,632.5 17.36 18.02 22.08 17.50 18.38 Source: Computed from African partner countries data as reported in UN COMTRADE 55 V. POLICY IMPLICATIONS Maior Point Statistics based on recent African trade performance generally do not support the contention that there has been a general improvement in the regions position and that its long term marginalization has been reversed. What is needed to induce such a change? Cross- country indices of the quality of African governance, trade policies, and the commercial "environment" indicates there is major scope for improvement. The business climate is still generally less favorable than in many countries which compete with Africa for foreign investment. African policies affecting taxation, security of property rights, the regulation of commercial activity and trade are far more restrictive than in developing countries that experienced successful export lead industrialization drives. If Africa is to reverse its long term trend of marginalization in world trade major policy reforms are urgently needed to improve the general business environment. The major message that follows from this analysis of African export performance is direct and important. There is little evidence that the long term marginalization of Sub-Saharan Africa in world trade has been reversed. This conclusion stems largely from a competitive share analysis of SSA countries recent export performance, and on the examination of other measures relating to export diversification, intra- industry trade, changes in the importance of trade in parts and components, or of changes in the structure or commodity exports over processing chains. With regard to the question posed in the title of this report (Cause for hope or more of the same?) the main point conceming the former is some tentative evidence that the fall in African export shares may have stabilized somewhat recently, but additional statistics will be needed before this can be verified. As such, a relevant question is what measures or policies should be adopted to further stimulate trade and growth? This question recognizes that many governmental policies that influence the general business "environment" have a major impact on a nation's ability to compete and achieve its economic potential. Domestic tax and profit retention policies, measures relating to the provision of social services, measures bearing on political stability or the ease with which businesses may be established and operate, policies relating to the quality and availability of transport, financial, communications or educational services 56 certainly will directly affect a country's ability to attract investment and other resources needed to foster integration into the global economy.33 Just how conducive to trade and growth is the current "commercial environment" in Africa? A recent World Bank study (Ng and Yeats 1999) directly addressed this issue. Specifically, it attempted to determine if inappropriate trade and governance policies explain the relatively poor experience of Sub-Saharan Africa as reflected in almost all measures of achievement or economic performance. The evidence strongly supported this proposition. Indices of the quality of local governance showed African countries are among those that have adopted the most inappropriate (restrictive) fiscal, monetary, property and wage policies, and their own trade barriers (including customs procedures that are a major constrain to commercial activity) are generally among the highest of any other regional group. James Wolfensohn, President of the World Bank, graphically highlighted the importance of such governance issues in a recent (January 1998) address to the UN Economic Commission for Africa But what do we see wihn we look at Africa? We see that Africa is missing out. Of $300 billion of total global private capital flows, Sub-Saharan Africa received about $12 billion. And, of that, only $2.6 billion in direct investments which is a trivial number in relation to the size and potential of this continent. But we also have to face facts. Its not just because the private sector is myopic that less than 1 percent of direct investment comes to Africa. Africa needs to set itself up to attract private investment, and that means a clean regulatory environment, it means a judicial system that works, it means property rights, corporate law, predictability in taxes and in relations to govemments. It means capacity building, health care, and the infra-structure necessary to go with it. And it means corruption must be stamped out. Without these, private investors simply will not invest. 33The importance of good governance as a catalyst to industrialization and growth is put graphically by the World Bank (1997): "The clamor for greater government effectiveness has reached crisis proportions in many developing countries where the state has failed to deliver even such fundamental public goods as property rights, roads, and basic health and education. There a vicious circle has taken hold: people and business respond to deteriorating public services by avoiding taxation, which leads to further deterioration in services. In the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe it was the state's long-term failure to deliver on its promises that led, finally, to its overthrow. But the collapse of central planning has created problems of its own. In the resulting vacuum, citizens are sometimes deprived of basic public goods such as law and order. At the limit, as in Afghanistan, Liberia, and Somalia, the state has sometimes crumbled entirely, leaving individuals and international agencies trying desperately to pick up the pieces." 57 Quite clearly if the long term marginalization of Africa is to be reversed it will require the adoption of enlightened economic, legal and social practices within the region. As such, to a large extent the solution of many African problems can only be addressed by Africa itself and not by outsiders 58 References Amjadi, Azita and Alexander Yeats (1995). Non-tariff Barriers Facing Africa: What Did the Uruguay Round Accomplish and What Remains to be Done?," South African Journal of Economics, (September). Amjadi, Azita, Ulrich Reinke and Alexander Yeats (1996). "Did External Barriers Cause the Marginalization of Sub-Saharan Africa in World Trade," World Bank Discussion Paper Number. 348, (Washington: World Bank). Balassa, Bela (1978). "Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence," Journal of Development Economics, June. Balassa, B. (1982). "Disequilibrium Analysis in Developing Countries: An Overview," World Development, December. Balassa, B. (1983). "Exports, Policy Choices and Economic Growth in Developing Countries After the 1973 Oil Shock," World Bank Discussion Paper Number 48, (Washington: World Bank). Balassa, B. and Associates (1971). The Structure of Protection in Developing Countries, Baltimore. Collier, Paul (1995). "The Marginalization of Africa," International Labour Review, 134 (4-5): 541-57. Erzan, Refik and Peter Svedberg (1991). "Protection Facing Exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in the EC, Japan and the US," in Jonathan Frimpong-Ansah, Ravi Kanbur and Peter Svedberg (eds.), Trade and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, (Manchester: Manchester University Press). Harberler, G. (1959). "International Trade and Economic Development," in J.D. Theberge (ed.), Economics of Trade and Development, New York. Keesing, D. (1967). "Outward Looking Policies and Economic Development," Economic Journal, June. Khalif N. (1974). "Country Size and Trade Concentration," The Journal of Development Studies, May. Kirkpatrick, Colin (1995). Does Trade Liberalization Assist Third World Industrial Development? Experience and Lessons of the 1980s," International Review of Applied Economics, Vol. 9, No. 1. Kopperschmidt, A. and J.S. Matutes (1997). "Assessment of Trade Liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa," Intereconomics, (August). Kravis, Irving (1970). "Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities Between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," The Economic Journal, December. MacBean, A. I. (1966). Export Instability and Economic Development, (Cambridge: Harvard University Press). Maizels, A. (1968). Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Cambridge, Mass. Massel, B. F. (1970). "Export Instability and Economic Structure," American Economic Review, 60 (September 1970). Meier, G. (1968). The International Economics of Development, (New York: Harper and Row). 59 Michaely, M. (1962). Concentration in International Trade, (Amsterdam: North Holland). Myrdal, G. (1957). Rich Lands and Poor, New York. Nash, John and Vinod Thomas (1991). Best Practices in Trade Policy Refornm (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the World Bank. Ng, Francis and Alexander Yeats (1997). "Open Economies Work Better! Did Africa's Protectionist Policies Cause its Marginalization in World Trade?," World Development July. Ng, Francis and Alexander Yeats (1999), Good Governance and Trade Policy: Are They the Keys to Africa's Global Integration and Growth?, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Number 2038, (Washington: The World Bank). Riedel, J. (1984). Trade as an Engine of Growth Revisited, Economic Journal, March. Singer, H.W. (1950). "The Distribution of Gains Between Investing and Borrowing Countries," American Economic Reviev May. Singer, H.W. and P. Gray (1988). "Trade Policy and Growth of Developing Countries," World Development, No. 3. UN Commission for Asia and the Far East (1972). Intra-regional Trade Projections: Effective Protection and Income Distribution, vol. 2, Bangkok. UNCTAD (1972). Commodity Problems and Policies, (Geneva: United Nations). UNCTAD (1975). Measures to Expand Processing of Primary Commodities in Developing Countries, (Geneva: December). White, Howard (1996). Adjustment in Africa: Review Article, Development and Change, vol. 26, No. 4. Yeats, Alexander (1981). Trade and Development Policies, Leading Issues for the 1980s, (London: Macmillan Press). Yeats, Alexander (1987). "The Escalation of Trade Barriers," in J. Michael Finger and Andrzej Olechowski eds., The Uruguay Round: A Handbook on the Multilateral Trade Negotiations, (Washington: World Bank). Yeats, Alexander (1991). Do Natural Resource Based Industrialization Strategies Convey Important Price Benefits for Commodity Exporting Developing Countries? World Bank Policy Research Paper Number 580, (Washington: World Bank). Yeats, Alexander (1996). Did External Barriers Cause the Marginalization of Sub-Saharan Africa in World Trade?, World Bank Discussion Paper Number 348, (Washington: The World Bank). Yeats, Alexander (1998). Just How Big is Global Production Sharing? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Number 1871,(Washington: The World Bank). Yeats, Alexander (1998). What Can be Expected from African Regional Trade Arrangements? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Number 2004, (Washington: World Bank). 60 Statistical Appendix 61 Appendix Table 1. United Nations COMTRADE Coverage Ratios for Selected Other African Countries' Exports (values in US$ million) 1990 Ex orts 1994 Ex orts 1998 Exports Available Reported Percentage Available Reported Percentage Available Reported Percentage COMTRADE IMF DOT Difference COMTRADE IMF DOT Difference COMTRADE IMF DOT Difference Exporter Partners* Total (%) Partners* Total (%) Partners* Total (%) Benin 86 122 29.5 118 179 34.1 180 244 26.2 Ethiopia 286 294 2.7 312 377 17.2 510 557 8.4 Guinea 618 606 -2.0 607 705 13.9 697 814 14.4 Madagascar 339 366 7.4 519 318 -63.2 724 234 -209.4 Malawi 299 419 28.6 335 474 29.3 359 509 29.5 Mali 141 252 44.0 141 176 19.9 218 286 23.8 Mauritania 464 469 1.1 437 436 -0.2 467 501 6.8 Mozambique 424 381 -11.3 167 220 24.1 195 271 28.0 Senegal 516 861 40.1 394 484 18.6 407 536 24.1 Sudan 391 515 24.1 352 454 22.5 340 539 36.9 Tanzania 376 416 33.7 405 523 22.6 480 588 18.4 Togo 199 268 25.7 151 280 46.1 189 420 55.0 Uganda 234 181 -29.3 411 379 -8.4 432 434 0.5 ALL ABOVE COUNTRIES 4,373 5.151 15.1 4,349 5.005 13.1 5,199 5,934 12.4 * Includes the following countries' reported total imports from the African trading partner: all original OECD members, Hong Kong, China, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Mexico, Malaysia, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Israel, Hungary, Poland, Philippines, Pakistan, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Cyprus, Ecuador, Egypt, Bangladesh, Kenya, Guatemala, Malta, Macau, Mauritius, Uruguay, Romania, Trinidad and Tobago, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Nicaragua, Barbados, Bolivia, Greenland, and St Lucia. 62 Appendix Table 2: Exports of the Longer Sub-Saharan African Countries as Reported in Available Partner Country Statistics, 1980-98 (Values in $ Million) Exporter 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 All Non-Oil Goods: Angola 289 44 76 45 40 30 43 IlI 264 280 288 75 222 176 161 217 315 396 419 Cameroon 1104 851 759 718 849 814 989 948 957 947 1006 820 847 857 1160 1398 1319 1319 1311 CongoDem 2275 1677 1182 1070 1374 1297 1449 1496 1769 1706 1659 1450 1151 820 1110 1357 1266 979 1017 Rep CongoRep 213 216 191 150 157 146 188 219 260 306 359 369 513 475 435 632 791 655 292 Cote D'ivoire 2667 2205 2020 1913 2317 2589 2801 2547 2271 2048 2413 2331 2329 2252 2609 3321 3507 3056 3427 Gabon 518 378 331 338 371 318 384 452 490 506 605 560 583 515 642 694 711 752 667 Ghana 1029 716 843 467 389 482 678 849 875 822 981 881 903 931 1243 1303 1340 1260 1473 Kenya 867 682 685 697 870 851 1048 856 880 948 981 1019 1037 1057 1165 1332 1423 1413 1365 Liberia 1250 1253 1232 936 910 919 854 985 1518 2500 2170 717 855 589 609 929 1100 1113 1212 Mauritius 493 362 390 366 400 475 649 862 1023 1012 1198 1165 1301 1296 1286 1528 1579 1605 1667 Nigeria 1049 501 410 479 389 470 373 419 695 625 657 653 550 603 705 845 908 912 782 Sacu 11805 9105 8261 7562 8152 8132 9053 8743 10266 11395 11525 11090 11342 11415 12942 15374 17239 18290 18415 Zambia 1398 929 770 686 747 607 610 731 919 1103 1100 954 902 667 637 679 522 563 513 Zimbabwe 381 610 606 631 654 627 752 1094 1070 1138 1114 1115 1082 951 1175 1303 1413 1583 1272 AllAbove 25338 19527 17755 16057 17617 17755 19872 20311 23257 25337 26055 23197 23617 22604 25878 30911 33432 33896 33832 Countries All Non-SSA 1180161 1113575 1059224 1075160 1220689 1249657 1518878 1867472 2195135 2373781 2690258 2806239 3034517 2965990 3423106 4075064 4238529 4398078 4451080 Countries World 1211012 1137606 1081292 1095521 1243115 1271721 1543642 1892895 2223968 2404924 2722054 2834934 3063151 2993167 3454318 4112427 4278231 4438697 4491411 All Food: Angola 59 30 57 36 34 24 34 40 57 27 11 11 17 19 23 33 39 45 40 Cameroon 766 548 494 453 563 534 665 568 533 417 410 333 337 338 412 541 551 438 450 CongoDem 271 207 186 185 221 220 356 308 195 147 198 105 82 90 125 226 129 70 65 Rep Congo Rep 24 14 11 11 21 18 16 14 16 18 17 17 11 17 8 20 10 24 33 Cote D'ivoire 1758 1608 1504 1387 1774 2115 2248 1916 1621 1381 1602 1600 1653 1613 1876 2421 2613 2265 2763 Gabon 24 23 21 20 20 23 33 37 33 26 25 12 17 13 12 15 11 12 17 Ghana 604 408 452 306 310 366 417 442 401 367 419 394 405 384 467 591 687 639 781 63 Appendix Table 2: (continued) Exporter 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Kenya 650 508 521 569 730 696 878 659 671 695 723 765 747 758 801 967 1040 1038 1022 Liberia 59 38 33 39 41 47 37 20 19 18 11 7 4 4 2 1 18 2 4 Mauritius 369 227 273 249 248 245 260 324 377 329 372 388 411 396 395 465 500 472 490 Nigeria 519 332 270 335 263 271 218 227 382 283 217 249 216 248 318 313 360 362 389 Sacu 2106 1802 1792 1224 1069 1080 1447 1495 1408 1667 1878 1850 1952 1647 2408 2382 2856 2850 2999 Zambia 16 25 25 7 7 11 11 24 18 18 19 16 18 16 15 19 27 55 46 Zimbabwe 150 225 236 259 229 238 272 388 371 400 459 540 534 454 632 568 714 822 626 All Above 7375 5993 5876 5079 5527 5887 6892 6464 6101 5793 6361 6286 6403 5997 7492 8561 9554 9093 9726 Countries All Non-SSA 164608 161571 150689 148973 157015 153165 180271 206879 232703 243056 273300 289725 313334 291926 332624 379475 396980 384783 377766 Countries World 174821 169975 159048 156395 165110 161311 190015 215981 241642 251635 282147 298334 321952 300023 342820 391436 409745 397280 390749 All Manufactures: Angola 163 5 11 3 2 2 6 67 201 249 272 58 195 149 125 171 261 340 367 Cameroon 35 34 31 32 33 38 42 55 55 58 54 43 45 34 47 59 57 67 73 CongoDem 135 58 68 103 153 177 199 241 351 255 292 477 397 412 688 758 770 655 688 Rep Congo Rep 58 73 71 50 43 47 68 78 96 126 159 201 366 355 312 482 664 502 80 Cote D'ivoire 81 72 70 77 73 82 131 197 195 231 239 244 270 235 226 316 419 305 201 Gabon 161 96 85 99 106 85 107 113 115 95 74 71 72 47 46 76 31 36 59 Ghana 33 21 12 14 18 21 36 30 50 69 130 103 90 174 267 219 307 200 350 Kenya 102 91 83 59 62 81 87 109 113 142 135 126 147 161 195 160 167 163 146 Liberia 283 379 539 345 324 318 269 420 931 1888 1750 615 678 566 596 906 1050 1048 1122 Mauritius 122 130 115 112 146 225 383 532 638 671 815 764 878 884 877 1044 1063 1112 1149 Nigeria 70 50 52 58 45 119 66 88 162 154 266 236 167 172 218 235 252 321 245 Sacu 4876 2973 2884 2786 3172 3218 3698 3021 3684 4100 3835 3657 4353 4881 5312 6788 7689 8281 8690 Zambia 39 33 20 17 18 12 17 30 33 39 42 44 32 33 42 51 50 60 58 Zimbabwe 141 193 161 145 169 164 202 234 349 344 319 278 301 286 274 403 363 400 340 64 Appendix Table 2: (continued) Exporter 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 All Above 6298 4207 4201 3898 4365 4587 5310 5215 6974 8421 8383 6917 7990 8389 9224 11667 13143 13488 13568 Countries All Non-SSA 839070 815442 785030 798802 918807 959925 1189449 1478036 1730044 1874968 2156484 2262528 2460732 2419144 2790506 3322688 3488049 3645980 3721586 Countries World 846369 820298 789810 803324 923765 965093 1195395 1484178 1738084 1884442 2166007 2270631 2469881 2428584 2800725 3335518 3502309 3660668 3736443 All Goods: Angola 1186 1447 1381 1666 1937 2088 1441 2133 2604 2861 3883 3288 3786 3283 3155 3587 4605 4580 3494 Cameroon 1771 1926 1856 1802 2323 2400 1793 1896 1666 1817 2069 1664 1615 1524 1720 1954 2030 2090 1853 CongoDem 2467 1937 1472 1321 1699 1631 1627 1703 1947 1881 1858 1643 1302 960 1232 1509 1430 1147 1096 Rep CongoRep 799 1115 1257 1131 1364 1133 837 990 938 1197 1239 1169 1451 1269 1166 1232 1550 1994 1178 Cote D'ivoire 2683 2249 2093 1994 2398 2650 2840 2567 2300 2123 2485 2396 2372 2280 2620 3371 3670 3198 3477 Gabon 2254 1890 1811 1660 1928 1782 1160 1339 1230 1542 2557 2617 2414 2317 2391 2614 3013 3369 2284 Ghana 1090 777 885 487 404 507 696 866 883 842 1002 895 918 944 1269 1312 1354 1273 1494 Kenya 1007 777 740 737 885 860 1055 856 883 953 993 1033 1058 1072 1171 1337 1429 1414 1367 Liberia 1277 1259 1235 941 914 928 854 1007 1532 2502 2194 763 939 673 610 946 1111 1129 1233 Mauritius 493 362 390 366 400 475 649 862 1023 1013 1198 1165 1301 1296 1286 1528 1579 1605 1668 Nigeria 24641 18396 15256 12000 12914 14395 8255 8020 7622 10433 13348 12970 11895 10961 10938 11671 14564 14545 9565 Sacu 12926 10498 9553 8685 9482 9722 10580 9920 11597 12911 13210 12872 13400 13137 14770 17549 19584 20701 20554 Zambia 1398 929 770 686 747 607 610 731 919 1103 1100 954 902 667 637 679 522 563 513 Zimbabwe 381 610 606 631 654 627 752 1099 1081 1154 1114 1115 1084 952 1181 1319 1423 1590 1279 All Above 54372 44172 39306 34107 38049 39804 33148 33988 36225 42330 48249 44543 44436 41335 44146 50607 57865 59197 51055 Countries All Non-SSA 1564318 1510792 1413965 1390594 1532143 1542591 1723538 2090648 2396429 2612880 2998849 3103023 3326109 3244910 3696836 4377868 4603435 4771984 4729855 Countries World 1624362 1559645 1457650 1429168 1575098 1586825 1761622 2129859 2438288 2661091 3052922 3153155 3375590 3290878 3746344 4435042 4667824 4838412 4787952 Source: Based on the above countries partners data drawn from UN COMTRADE Statistics. 65 Appendix Table 3: Exports of the Mid-Sized Sub-Saharan African Countries as Reported in Available Partner Country Statistics, 1980-98 (Values in $ Million) Exporter 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 All Non-Oil Goods: Benin 68 33 28 42 74 103 104 80 49 60 61 57 73 69 104 136 167 208 177 Ethiopia 309 288 339 318 353 274 406 334 320 398 284 216 166 225 312 454 424 528 530 Guinea 385 386 394 381 448 454 430 497 500 568 618 651 561 635 605 644 615 596 636 Madagascar 420 356 355 305 344 287 349 371 323 322 337 356 379 390 512 598 643 637 706 Malawi 228 230 208 189 233 263 234 294 261 241 300 412 417 293 335 320 345 441 381 Mali 131 80 52 63 84 71 81 72 67 86 136 161 176 154 136 181 176 211 212 Mauritania 253 288 273 257 262 309 347 367 419 487 453 459 422 398 436 558 547 522 466 Mozambique 413 299 248 191 117 104 103 209 313 383 406 382 247 148 165 167 161 201 182 Senegal 326 249 326 368 354 280 348 392 510 545 501 500 384 316 388 440 439 396 402 Sudan 404 380 297 393 561 346 291 422 461 454 387 211 202 274 348 367 292 362 350 Tanzania 483 424 362 340 350 330 384 324 345 391 373 339 347 372 404 492 552 522 477 Togo 253 196 164 160 193 169 226 200 223 243 196 183 138 98 151 177 191 226 190 Uganda 454 256 370 346 401 406 455 321 325 289 234 183 193 158 411 615 570 558 431 AllAbove 4125 3462 3414 3352 3774 3394 3757 3882 4116 4465 4284 4110 3703 3529 4305 5147 5122 5405 5138 Countries All Non-SSA 1180161 1113575 1059224 1075160 1220689 1249657 1518878 1867472 2195135 2373781 2690258 2806239 3034517 2965990 3423106 4075064 4238529 4398078 4451080 Countries World 1211012 1137606 1081292 1095521 1243115 1271721 1543642 1892895 2223968 2404924 2722054 2834934 3063151 2993167 3454318 4112427 4278231 4438697 4491411 All Food: Benin 52 19 19 24 42 60 69 33 17 18 17 12 22 20 27 21 30 28 30 Ethiopia 239 223 254 257 278 193 318 238 217 294 163 125 94 136 223 339 287 413 440 Guinea 14 9 7 12 13 13 13 29 23 32 29 18 21 27 45 75 55 56 66 Madagascar 345 308 296 253 281 231 286 296 247 228 235 252 278 270 342 378 363 318 342 Malawi 208 220 202 179 226 246 219 280 241 224 280 382 387 275 320 304 329 432 369 Mali 36 16 11 8 7 6 10 5 7 5 8 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 6 Mauritania 39 83 85 94 89 120 183 205 233 224 170 171 210 195 210 281 285 233 198 Mozambique 295 215 164 99 71 50 58 98 122 110 120 123 115 88 105 123 117 137 122 Senegal 215 149 241 272 257 191 251 275 364 385 385 396 297 245 313 354 353 319 329 Sudan 130 185 144 133 188 103 97 150 188 179 119 45 59 154 134 148 131 184 213 Tanzania 303 294 264 209 243 227 274 220 192 210 210 187 186 199 203 271 300 316 325 Togo 85 78 67 63 79 48 94 59 47 65 35 29 37 30 46 50 34 50 44 Uganda 424 248 355 328 361 357 435 304 298 268 202 162 160 130 383 589 543 507 388 66 Appendix Table 3: Continued Exporter 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 All Above 2384 2048 2110 1932 2135 1845 2307 2190 2196 2242 1972 1907 1868 1773 2355 2936 2833 3001 2869 Countries All Non-SSA 164608 161571 150689 148973 157015 153165 180271 206879 232703 243056 273300 289725 313334 291926 332624 379475 396980 384783 377766 Countries World 174821 169975 159048 156395 165110 161311 190015 215981 241642 251635 282147 298334 321952 300023 342820 391436 409745 397280 390749 All Manufactures: Benin 4 6 4 10 7 4 3 1 14 5 4 4 12 7 4 7 10 8 8 Ethiopia 18 20 39 24 29 29 40 43 53 62 72 54 42 64 55 75 93 66 49 Guinea 98 44 49 43 51 50 74 106 132 124 122 175 161 246 169 172 123 140 152 Madagascar 28 20 26 28 31 30 23 36 34 42 50 55 59 84 131 159 216 251 296 Malawi 13 3 4 6 6 9 12 13 17 12 14 17 19 14 12 11 10 4 6 Mali 19 6 3 4 6 12 17 9 13 15 23 52 62 46 47 30 23 14 16 Mauritania 4 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 8 5 8 Mozambique 63 39 49 59 32 45 36 85 139 187 210 185 45 33 20 11 5 19 18 Senegal 15 22 10 14 13 18 16 29 38 31 22 33 22 18 28 26 30 31 32 Sudan 17 11 13 15 51 45 20 16 19 10 10 11 10 7 10 18 31 31 26 Tanzania 52 24 24 55 25 26 22 38 39 52 53 52 49 52 73 74 59 60 54 Togo 17 2 1 9 4 7 9 11 11 15 9 10 8 12 28 31 20 26 20 Uganda 17 3 6 2 2 4 3 3 6 4 2 2 9 5 2 4 4 8 13 All Above 366 201 230 270 259 279 276 392 516 562 595 653 499 592 585 623 632 663 696 Countries AllNon-SSA 839070 815442 785030 798802 918807 959925 1189449 1478036 1730044 1874968 2156484 2262528 2460732 2419144 2790506 3322688 3488049 3645980 3721586 Countries World 846369 820298 789810 803324 923765 965093 1195395 1484178 1738084 1884442 2166007 2270631 2469881 2428584 2800725 3335518 3502309 3660668 3736443 All Goods: Benin 68 33 28 76 114 164 128 106 65 67 86 82 83 88 118 146 181 219 179 Ethiopia 342 295 350 320 357 277 408 339 325 398 286 216 166 225 312 454 425 531 530 Guinea 385 386 394 381 448 454 430 498 500 568 618 651 561 652 606 650 650 659 693 Madagascar 425 361 360 305 344 287 353 371 323 322 339 362 382 393 515 607 659 656 723 Malawi 228 230 208 189 233 263 234 294 261 241 300 412 417 293 335 320 345 441 381 Mali 131 80 52 63 84 71 81 72 67 86 136 161 176 154 136 181 177 211 212 Mauritania 253 352 273 264 278 312 347 396 435 493 464 471 422 401 437 558 549 522 466 Mozambique 420 302 265 205 118 118 107 215 314 391 424 396 249 149 166 173 161 206 195 67 Appendix Table 3: Continued Exporter 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Senegal 326 249 326 368 354 283 348 392 510 545 508 506 389 318 391 443 453 396 402 Sudan 435 397 317 402 565 347 291 426 461 457 387 224 202 274 348 367 292 362 350 Tanzania 495 424 370 357 373 345 386 324 345 414 373 345 348 377 405 494 553 526 481 Togo 279 203 164 160 193 179 227 200 230 243 198 188 142 98 151 204 197 236 190 Uganda 456 268 371 346 402 407 455 321 325 289 234 183 193 158 411 615 570 564 431 AllAbove 4242 3579 3477 3436 3862 3503 3794 3954 4161 4513 4351 4197 3729 3581 4332 5211 5211 5528 5232 Countries All Non-SSA 1564318 1510792 1413965 1390594 1532143 1542591 1723538 2090648 2396429 2612880 2998849 3103023 3326109 3244910 3696836 4377868 4603435 4771984 4729855 Countries World 1624362 1559645 1457650 1429168 1575098 1586825 1761622 2129859 2438288 2661091 3052922 3153155 3375590 3290878 3746344 4435042 4667824 4838412 4787952 Source: Based on the above countries partners data drawn from UN COMTRADE Statistics. 68 Appendix Table 4: Compound Annual Growth Rates for the Exports of Other Mid-Sized SSA Countries Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Exporter 1980-85 1985-90 1990-93 1993-96 1996-98 All Non-Oil Goods: Benin 8.60 -9.89 4.39 34.03 2.86 Ethiopia -2.35 0.71 -7.43 23.45 11.86 Guinea 3.32 6.38 0.92 -1.07 1.68 Madagascar -7.34 3.28 4.97 18.18 4.73 Malawi 2.89 2.67 -0.75 5.66 5.01 Mali -11.65 14.11 4.17 4.59 9.70 Mauritania 4.12 7.91 -4.24 11.22 -7.73 Mozambique -24.11 31.29 -28.60 2.83 6.45 Senegal -2.98 12.31 -14.26 11.63 -4.28 Sudan -3.06 2.30 -10.88 2.14 9.46 Tanzania -7.34 2.46 -0.07 14.05 -7.01 'Uganda -2.17 -10.46 -12.26 53.40 -13.09 |All Above Countries -3.82 4.77 -6.26 13.22 0.16 IAl Non-SSA Countries I 1.15 1 16.57 3.31 12.64 2.48 All Foods: I I I I Benin 2.83 -22.43 5.63 15.36 0.00 Ethiopia -4.13 -3.31 -5.98 28.38 23.85 Guinea -1.80 17.73 -1.30 26.22 9.20 Madagascar -7.77 0.38 4.75 10.33 -2.91 Malawi 3.40 2.61 -0.53 6.05 5.94 Mali -29.09 5.08 -23.30 11.29 3.85 Mauritania 25.31 7.12 4.78 13.48 -16.67 Mozambique -29.82 18.99 -9.96 10.10 31.95 Senegal -2.39 15.11 -13.98 12.94 -3.59 Sudan -4.45 2.92 8.98 -5.36 27.53 Tanzania -5.61 -1.60 -1.80 14.77 3.98 Togo -10.79 -6.15 -5.36 5.26 12.58 Uganda -3.36 -10.77 -13.66 61.01 -15.51 All Above Countries -5.00 1.34 -3.50 16.91 0.64 All Non-SSA Countries -1.43 12.28 2.22 10.79 -2.45 |All Manufactures: IIIIII |Benin | -0.53 | 2.57 | 20.23 | 10.69 | -9.55 1 Ethiopia 10.35 20.25 -4.13 13.55 -27.94 Guinea -12.59 19.49 26.35 -20.58 11.16 Madagascar 1.18 10.77 1.70 -10 -7.28 Madawi 1-7.144 108.69 1.12 36.90 -25.25 Mali -9.40 14.27 26.55 -20.75 -17.02 Mauritania -19.34 17.23 4.13 32.27 -1.24 Mozambique -6.61 36.19 -45.96 -46.10 84.50 Senegal 3.32 4.40 -6.07 17.96 2.29 Sudan 21.13 -25.55 -11.79 63.33 -8.56 Tanzania -13.01 15.26 -0.44 3.74 -4.01 Togo -15.89 5.48 7.26 20.31 0.00 Uganda -27.03 -8.57 30.40 -7.78 78.19 All Above Countries -5.32 16.39 -0.16 2.18 4.97 IAII Non-SSA Countries I 2.73 17.57 3.91 12.97 1 3.29 Source: Computations based on the above countries' partners data drawn from UN COMTRADE Statistics. 69 Appendix Table 5: Analysis of Changes in the Share of Other Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries in World Trade 1980-85 Ave World Ratio of Current to Average 1980-85 Share of World Trade Trade Exporter Share (%) 1990 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 All Non-Oil Goods: I I Benin 0.005 0.455 0.470 0.670 | 0.792 0.950 0.798 Ethiopia 0.027 0.390 0.282 0.414 0.371 0.445 0.442 Guinea 0.035 0.653 0.610 0.450 0.413 0.386 0.407 Madagascar 0.029 0.422 0.44 0.496 0.513 0.489 0.536 Malawi 0.019 0.573 0.510 0.405 0.421 0.517 0.442 Mali 0.007 0.735 0.756 0.646 0.605 0.698 0.693 Mauritania 0.023 0.713 0.570 0.581 0.548 0.504 0.444 Mozambique 0.019 0.765 0.253 0.208 0.193 0.233 0.208 Senegal 0.027 0.681 0.390 0.396 0.380 0.330 0.331 Sudan 0.034 0.421 0.271 0.264 0.202 0.241 0.231 ITanzania 0.033 0.421 0.382 0.368 0.397 0.361 0.327 Togo 0.016 0.448 0.204 0.267 0.278 0.316 0.262 Uganda 0.032 0.271 0.166 0.471 0.420 0.396 0.302 |All Above Countries 0.306 0.5 15 0.386 0.409 0.392 |0.398 0.374 AllNon-SSA Countries 97.986 1.009 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011 All Foods: i i i i T 1 Benin 0.022 I 0.271 0.301 I 0.242 I 0.338 0.321 0.355 |Ethiopia | 0146 | 0.396 0.309 0.591 0.479 | 0.711 | 0.770 Guinea 0.007 1.481 1.339 2.802 1.971 2.078 2.465 Madagascar 0.174 0.479 0.518 0.557 0.510 0.462 0.504 Malawi 0.130 0.763 0.707 0.597 0.617 0.837 0.726 |Mali | 0.009 0.339 0.144 0.143 0.145 0.197 0.164 Mauritania 0.052 1.162 1.257 1.388 1.346 1.137 0.980 gMozambique | 0.091 0.469 0.322 0.347 0.314 0.379 0.343 Senegal 0.134 1.017 0.609 0.673 0.642 0.597 0.626 Sudan 0.090 0.472 0.575 0.422 0.357 0.518 0.609 Tanzania 0.156 0.476 0.424 0.443 0.469 0.509 0.532 |Togo 0.042 0.290 0.232 0.302 0.198 0.297 0.263 |Uganda 0.210 0.341 0.206 0.716 0.631 0.608 0.472 |AIl Above Countries 1.262 0.554 0.468 0.594 0.548 0.598 0.582 All Non-SSA Countries 94.868 1.021 1.026 j 1.022 1 1.021 L 1.021 1.019 All Manufactures: I I I I I I I |Benin 0.001 0.289 0.447 0.326 0.421 0.317 0.323 |Ethiopia 0.003 1.089 0.856 0.733 0.869 0.583 0.423 IGuinea 0.007 0.862 1.551 0.788 0.539 0.587 0.624 Madagascar 0.003 0.725 1.093 1.509 1.944 2.166 2.506 Malawi 0.001 0.781 0.732 0.406 0.365 0.130 0.191 Mali 0.001 1.090 1.970 0.927 0.680 0.405 0.439 |Mauritania 0.000 0.664 0.668 0.640 1.073 0.646 0.981 IMozambique 0.006 1.737 0.244 0.060 0.027 0.094 0.085 |Senegal 0.002 0.579 0.428 0.442 0.487 0.477 0.477 Sudan | 0.003 | 0.160 | 0.098 | 0.187 0.296 | 0.290 | 0.232 70 Appendix Table 5 (continued) [ 1 1980-85 Ave l World Ratio of Current to Average 1980-85 Share of World Trade Trade Exporter Share (%) 1990 1993 1995 1 1996 1997 1 1998 Tanzania 0.004 0.611 0.537 0.556 0.416 0.411 0.359 Togo 0.001 0.559 0.615 1.177 0.742 0.921 0.696 Uganda 0.001 0.159 0.314 0.188 0.171 0.307 0.509 AllAboveCountries 0.031 0.881 0.782 0.599 0.579 0.581 0.598 All Non-SSA Countries 99.387 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 Source: Computations based on the above countries' partners data drawn from UN COMTRADE Statistics. 71 Appendix Table 6. Changes in the Structure of Selected Other Sub-Saharan African Countries' Exports: 1985, 1990, 1994 and 1998 l ________ Share in Total Exports (%)* | Manufactures Sub-Group (Share in Total Exports)** Value All Agricultural | Ores & All Misc. Leather | Wood & | Textiles iron & | Clothing | Footwear Exporter ($million) Foods Materials Fuels Metals Mfgs. Goods & Rubber Paper Steel Benin 1985 163.7 36.5 22.9 37.2 0.9 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 86.4 19.4 40.9 29.4 5.1 4.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1995 145.9 14.3 71.8 6.9 0.3 5.0 1.7 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1998 180.1 17.0 75.9 1.4 0.2 4.6 0.9 0.1 0.3 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ethiopia 1985 277.1 69.7 69.7 1.0 0.2 10.4 0.9 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1990 285.8 57.1 57.1 0.7 0.4 25.3 1.4 9.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 2.2 0.0 1995 462.7 73.2 73.2 0.0 0.2 16.2 0.2 8.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 1998 509.9 82.4 82.4 0.0 1.3 9.6 0.4 4.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.0 Guinea 1985 453.5 2.8 0.2 0.0 85.8 11.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 617.7 4.6 0.7 0.0 74.7 19.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 652.0 11.5 3.5 1.0 57.5 26.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1998 696.8 9.5 2.0 8.4 58.1 21.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Madagascar 1985 286.8 80.4 3.0 0.0 6.0 10.4 0.3 0.8 0.0 6.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1990 338.8 69.4 4.8 0.4 10.3 14.7 0.4 1.1 0.1 5.8 0.0 3.3 0.0 1995 610.0 62.4 4.3 1.5 3.9 26.2 1.7 0.4 0.2 2.6 0.0 19.0 0.0 1998 724.0 47.3 5.7 2.4 2.1 41.0 1.4 0.2 0.3 2.1 0.1 34.3 0.0 Malawi 1985 262.6 93.7 2.6 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1990 299.5 93.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.9 0.0 1.8 0.0 1995 320.1 94.9 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 2.4 0.0 0.6 0.0 1998 358.8 96.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 Mali 1985 72.1 8.9 73.8 0.0 0.0 16.1 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1990 140.8 5.8 74.4 0.0 3.0 16.1 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.0 1995 186.4 2.6 80.1 0.0 0.3 15.9 1.0 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.4 0.0 1998 218.3 2.5 89.1 0.0 0.1 7.2 0.8 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 72 Appendix Table 6. Continued l l Share in Total Exports (%)* | Manufactures Sub-Group (Share in Total Exports)** Value All Agricultural Ores & | All Misc. Leather Wood & 1 Iron & Exporter ($million) Foods Materials Fuels Metals Mfgs. Goods & Rubber Paper Textiles Steel Clothing Footwear Mauritania 1985 311.7 38.6 0.3 0.7 59.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1990 463.9 36.5 0.1 2.3 58.9 0.7 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1995 557.8 50.4 0.4 0.0 48.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1998 467.0 42.6 0.2 0.0 55.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 Mozambique 1985 117.7 42.7 5.3 11.6 2.1 38.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.8 26.4 0.1 0.0 1990 424.4 28.3 4.3 4.4 12.8 49.6 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.6 37.4 1.8 0.0 1995 173.3 71.1 13.4 3.7 3.3 6.4 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 1998 195.3 62.6 13.9 6.4 7.7 9.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.1 Senegal 1985 286.5 66.6 7.0 0.9 18.2 6.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 1990 516.0 74.7 6.5 1.4 12.5 4.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 1995 443.5 80.0 5.5 0.6 7.4 5.9 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1998 406.9 81.3 6.7 0.0 3.5 7.8 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 Sudan 1985 348.9 30.1 55.8 0.5 0.7 12.8 0.3 0.5 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1990 390.7 31.2 64.1 0.0 1.2 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 373.8 41.4 51.3 0.0 2.0 4.9 0.3 1.8 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1998 340.0 61.1 30.5 0.0 0.4 7.4 0.5 3.0 0.1 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tanzania 1985 344.6 66.0 14.0 4.3 6.8 7.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 3.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1990 376.2 55.7 22.3 0.0 6.1 15.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 6.6 0.0 1.1 0.0 1995 493.8 54.9 21.7 0.4 7.1 15.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 4.5 0.0 3.0 0.0 1998 480.1 67.4 17.3 0.9 2.4 11.2 0.7 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 73 Appendix Table 6. Continued 1 t . Share in Total Exports (% | Manufactures Sub-Group (Share in Total Exports)** Value All Agricultural Ores & All Misc. Leather Wood & |[Iron& 1 Exporter ($million) Foods Materials Fuels Metals | Mfgs. | Goods & Rubber Paper Textiles Steel Clothing Footwear Togo 1985 181.8 26.3 12.5 5.2 51.5 4.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1990 199.4 17.5 25.4 0.8 50.6 4.7 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 1995 204.2 24.6 13.9 13.4 32.5 14.9 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 1998 189.5 23.0 26.6 0.0 38.9 10.6 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 Uganda 1985 406.8 87.8 10.9 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 233.8 86.4 12.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 615.2 95.7 3.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1998 431.8 89.9 6.6 0.0 0.4 2.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 All Above Countries 1985 3,513.8 52.6 14.1 3.1 21.9 7.9 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 1990 4,373.3 45.2 15.5 1.5 23.5 13.7 0.7 0.8 0.2 1.4 3.7 0.8 0.1 1995 5,238.6 56.3 14.4 1.2 15.6 11.9 0.6 1.1 0.1 1.2 0.1 2.7 0.1 1998 5,198.5 54.4 14.3 1.8 15.4 13.4 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.9 0.1 5.2 0.1 * In terms of the SITC Revision I classification system the major product groups are defined as: all foods (0+1+22+4); agricultural raw materials (2-22-27-28); mineral fuels (3); ores minerals and manufactures (27+28+68); manufactures (5+6+7+8-68); miscellaneous goods (9) ** In terms of the SITC Revision I classification system the sub-group products are defined as: leather and rubber (61+62); wood and paper (63+64), textiles (65); iron and steel (67), clothing (84); footwear (85). Source: Computed from African partner countries statistics as reported by United Nations COMTRADE. 74 Appendix Table 7 Changes in the Concentration of Selected Other African Countries Exports: 1990 to 1998 Number of Items Share in T tal Exports (%) Exported' Largest Product Three Largest Exporter 1990 1998 1990 1998 1990 1998 New Export Products over the 1990-96 Period2 Benin 17 10 24.5 74.3 50.1 88.6 Shaped lumber, Woven cotton, Cotton yam Ethiopia 18 12 63.4 71.1 78.2 85.4 Sesame seeds, Dry legumes, Oilseeds Guinea 4 12 77.1 58.6 95.5 85.2 Crude petroleum, Frozen fish, Raw Cotton, Fresh fish, Shellfish, Veneer logs, Salted fish, Engine parts Madagascar 18 33 27.3 15.0 66.6 33.1 Numerous textile products, prepared fish, Petroleum oils, Raw cotton, Crude vegetable material, Shaped lumber, Dried legumes, Saw logs, Refined sugar Malawi 15 9 52.0 67.0 71.6 85.2 None Mali 18 8 46.3 88.0 69.6 90.1 Sheep leather, Leather nes Mauritania 9 7 47.1 53.7 89.6 89.2 Meat or fish meal, Fresh fish Mozambique 31 20 18.5 38.7 34.0 57.6 Building stones, Copra, Coal and Coke, Live cattle Senegal 19 19 15.9 23.4 45.0 49.0 Fish fillets, Footwear, Groundnuts Sudan 22 19 32.0 22.9 53.4 54.3 Raw sugar, Bovine leather, Dry legumes, Sheep leather, Zoo animals Tanzania 25 26 31.9 23.6 56..I 45.7 Fish fillets, Frozen fish, Precious stones, Men's shirts, Tobacco Togo 14 14 50.0 38.9 77.7 74.1 Phosphatic fertilizer, Quinine, Insulated wire Uganda 6 12 91.7 73.0 95.6 83.8 ___________________ ________ ______ ________ ________ __________ _________ Fish fillets, Cut flowers, Tobacco, Salted fish, Gold Items are defined at the four-digit level of the SITC Revision I system. To be included in the tabulation of an export product the item had to account for one half of one percent or more of all exports. 2These item's share went from under to under to over one half of one percent during the 1990 to 1998 period. 75 Appendix Table 8. Recent Changes in the Geographic Concentration of Other Selected African Countries Exports Share of Total Exports Destined For: Industrial Of which: Developing Of which: Exporter/Year Countries France Japan Germany U.K. U.S.A. Countries Africa Asia Middle Americas East Benin 1985 95.3 4.8 -- 14.0 0.1 -- 4.5 3.7 0.6 -- -- 1990 77.9 0.4 0.7 0.6 26.7 45.0 20.6 -- -- 1.1 19.4 1995 37.3 2.3 -- 1.9 0.3 4.7 62.7 17.7 19.7 7.3 -- 1998 25.6 2.6 -- 1.7 0.8 1.6 74.4 5.8 25.1 8.7 33.8 Ethiopia 1985 71.1 3.8 10.3 18.5 3.2 10.5 26.1 5.7 0.5 13.5 -- 1990 69.7 4.7 12.6 16.7 6.8 8.5 24.1 7.5 0.6 14.1 6.1 1995 78.1 4.4 11.9 33.1 4.9 6.6 21.1 5.4 3.3 10.4 -- 1998 68.7 3.6 12.1 24.8 2.5 6.8 26.8 10.0 0.9 14.2 Guinea 1985 86.9 8.5 0.2 13.7 2.2 26.8 13.1 6.8 2.1 0.1 -- 1990 84.0 11.5 1.3 7.6 3.5 24.4 16.0 10.2 3.0 -- 0.6 1995 73.3 6.3 2.0 3.7 0.6 16.1 26.7 8.5 1.4 0.3 -- 1998 75.6 6.6 0.7 3.4 0.4 15.9 24.4 6.7 3.4 0.2 Madagascar 1985 81.9 36.4 10.4 7.1 2.3 13.9 12.8 3.7 7.9 -- -- 1990 84.0 27.5 4.9 6.2 1.2 26.6 15.4 9.1 5.5 -- 0.6 1995 76.9 29.2 6.4 8.4 3.8 6.7 23.1 15.6 5.1 0.4 -- 1998 71.0 43.3 1.9 4.5 2.8 6.0 20.8 10.9 8.1 0.8 0.2 Malawi 1985 80.4 3.7 3.5 8.9 36.3 11.1 19.6 18.5 0.9 0.3 -- 1990 78.2 3.8 12.9 11.8 18.3 10.7 21.8 18.6 2.6 0.6 1995 58.9 2.6 10.3 13.3 5.4 9.4 34.1 23.4 4.1 2.2 -- 1998 57.9 1.6 8.3 11.1 3.1 11.6 42.0 28.9 1.7 2.9 0.1 Mali 1985 72.0 16.1 3.7 12.2 4.3 0.1 28.0 14.8 1.6 0.1 -- 1990 39.8 7.0 1.1 4.4 0.9 0.7 47.9 25.1 22.7 -- 12.2 1995 38.9 3.0 0.8 1.7 -- 2.1 59.6 9.2 41.4 0.1 -- 1998 42.4 1.6 0.2 1.6 0.2 1.2 58.0 9.4 36.1 0.4 9.6 76 Appendix Table 8. Continued Share of Total Exports Destined For: Industrial Of which: Other | Of which: Exporter/Year Countries France 1 Japan Germany | U.K. 1 U.S.A. Countries Africa Asia Middle ] Americas l____ I I I I I I I I I East Mauritania 1985 58.1 6.9 15.5 1.6 3.8 30.9 7.5 1.0 2.5 -- 1990 79.6 10.3 19.8 0.9 4.7 -- 9.0 5.6 0.7 -- 9.0 1995 87.0 12.7 28.0 0.3 3.7 1.2 12.4 11.5 0.7 -- -- 1998 81.7 17.0 18.2 4.4 2.6 0.1 17.3 10.5 3.0 0.7 0.4 Mozambique 1985 45.0 1.5 10.0 2.5 6.2 11.6 49.4 1.4 39.5 7.4 0.4 1990 33.8 2.8 3.9 1.8 4.3 6.8 64.7 56.7 3.0 1.5 1.5 1995 64.4 1.2 12.8 2.1 1.2 11.6 30.5 20.4 5.9 2.4 0.6 1998 58.6 0.7 6.2 2.7 2.0 9.2 35.5 25.4 8.7 -- -- Senegal 1985 35.0 20.7 1.8 0.7 3.6 0.2 35.8 23.9 7.3 0.1 4.0 1990 61.2 34.8 1.8 2.0 1.2 0.6 31.6 17.0 14.3 0.1 0.1 1995 25.0 11.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 62.0 26.7 32.4 2.3 -- 1998 24.4 16.7 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 63.2 34.3 27.4 0.5 1.0 Sudan 1985 34.5 3.4 6.7 6.6 2.8 1.7 65.0 0.3 22.3 29.0 -- 1990 47.1 5.3 6.0 6.4 2.9 2.8 45.7 0.7 25.2 16.9 7.1 1995 42.8 4.9 6.6 5.3 2.8 4.0 57.1 1.4 24.9 24.8 -- 1998 39.2 6.9 3.7 5.3 3.1 0.6 60.6 2.2 16.1 37.4 0.5 Tanzania 1985 70.8 1.5 3.8 23.5 16.9 1.8 27.2 5.1 19.1 1.4 -- 1990 67.6 3.2 4.5 17.6 11.5 4.1 32.4 4.5 22.7 3.3 -- 1995 43.8 1.7 8.1 9.1 5.4 3.0 48.3 14.3 27.3 5.0 0.2 1998 52.7 0.7 7.5 8.3 10.4 2.3 47.3 13.7 29.3 2.0 0.3 77 Appendix Table 8. Continued Share of Total Exports Destined For: Industrial Of which: Developing Of which: Exporter/Year Countries France Japan Germany U.K. U.S.A. Countries Africa Asia Middle Americas Togo 1985 73.0 23.1 0.3 8.0 1.1 1.6 27.0 9.1 3.3 0.4 1990 52.8 9.6 0.2 2.5 1.9 1.1 37.6 14.8 13.7 8.6 1995 41.7 3.2 0.3 0.6 4.0 55.0 19.8 27.0 -- 1998 24.0 2.5 -- 0.3 0.6 0.6 71.6 22.9 39.4 -- 7.0 Uganda 1985 88.3 7.0 2.6 8.0 15.1 28.3 10.9 1.1 7.9 1.9 -- 1990 89.9 12.4 3.4 6.0 10.1 7.5 10.1 5.0 1.2 2.3 1995 86.8 12.8 1.9 12.6 3.0 2.3 13.2 2.1 2.7 1.7 1998 75.6 5.9 1.5 12.1 5.7 3.3 24.4 5.9 2.4 1.8 -- All Above Countries 1985 65.0 11.1 5.2 3.7 7.0 9.1 27.9 8.9 8.0 4.7 0.7 1990 62.5 12.0 5.9 6.2 4.4 8.4 33.7 11.2 14.9 2.8 0.4 1995 61.9 9.2 6.8 7.5 3.2 6.5 35.9 12.1 14.0 4.7 2.8 1998 55.0 7.6 5.1 6.8 2.8 5.2 41.9 14.2 14.3 5.8 2.6 Source: Computed from International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade Statistics. 78 Appendix Table 9. Changes in the Importance and Competitive Position of Major Products Exported by Other Selected African Countries: 1990 to 1998 1990 Exports 1998 Exports 1998 Import Market Share* Exporter/SITC/Commodity Value ($000) Share (%) Value ($000) Share (%) Cumulative 1990 1998 Share Ratio BENIN Total Exports 86,408 100.0 180,856 100.0 263.1 Raw Cotton 34,310 39.7 133,690 73.9 73.9 0.501 3.769 222.3 Cotton Seeds 9,845 11.4 23,184 12.8 86.7 12.590 1.051 333.0 Crude Petroleum 25,376 29.4 2,515 1.4 88.1 0.013 0.119 223.8 Oil Seeds 1,282 1.5 2,397 1.3 89.4 0.638 1.197 248.3 Shaped Lumber 565 0.7 2,327 1.3 90.7 0.010 3.117 ETHIOPIA Total Exports 285,789 100.0 531,437 100.0 1.188 071.1 Coffee Beans 149,308 52.2 377,911 71.1 71.1 1.897 1.456 222.5 Sesame Seeds 192 0.1 47,975 9.0 80.1 0.046 240.8 211.7 Sheep Skins 29,882 10.5 27,828 5.2 85.4 4.942 1.706 611.6 Leather 17,500 6.1 13,371 2.5 87.9 1.142 0.887 GUINEA Total Exports 619,393 100.0 696,924 100.0 287.3 Aluminum Ores 473,125 76.4 408,581 58.6 58.6 8.861 0.981 667.2 Non-Industrial Diamonds 82,935 13.4 126,928 18.2 76.8 0.307 1.192 333.0 Crude Petroleum 0 0.0 58,161 8.3 85.2 0.000 071.1 Coffee Beans 9,403 1.5 25,362 3.6 88.8 0.119 1.552 522.5 Inorganic Bases 0 0.0 13,211 1.9 90.7 0.000 MADAGASCAR Total Exports 338,780 100.0 724,034 100.0 036.0 Fresh or Frozen Shell Fish 40,523 12.0 108,703 15.0 15.0 0.011 1.366 845.1 Jerseys or Pullovers 2,544 0.8 73,528 10.2 25.2 0.339 1.972 075.2 Spices 90,740 26.8 57,518 7.9 33.1 0.017 16.449 071.1 Green or Roasted Coffee 45,010 13.3 55,789 7.7 40.8 13.426 0.477 057.9 Fresh Fruit and Nuts 14,025 4.1 49,416 6.8 47.6 0.572 0.713 842.3 Trousers and Breeches 693 0.2 41,501 5.7 53.4 0.236 2.467 037.1 Prepared or Preserved Fish 37 0.0 38,574 5.3 58.7 0.008 33.160 MALAWI Total Exports 299,457 100.0 381,104 100.0 67.0 121.2 Stripped Tobacco 175,219 58.5 252,299 67.0 79.9 5.566 1.026 074.1 Tea 38,162 12.7 49,337 12.9 85.2 2.347 1.099 79 Appendix Table 9. Continued 1990 Ex orts 1998 Exp orts 1998 Import Market Share* Exporter/SITC/Commodity Value ($000) Share (%) Value ($000) Share (%) Cumulative 1990 1998 Share Ratio MALI Total Exports 161,275 100.0 218,751 100.0 263.1 Raw Cotton 99,141 61.5 192,027 87.8 87.8 1.448 51.945 611.6 Non-Bovine Leather 54 0.0 2,429 1.1 88.9 0.004 4.281 MAURITANIA Total Exports 463,889 100.0 466,743 100.0 281.5 Iron Ore 267,825 57.7 250,723 53.7 53.7 3.548 0.821 036.0 Fresh or Frozen Shellfish 138,916 29.9 140,861 30.2 83.9 1.163 0.744 034.2 Frozen Fish 25,670 5.5 24,714 5.3 89.2 0.421 0.760 034.1 Fresh or Chilled Fish 1,756 0.4 20,053 4.3 93.5 0.034 8.467 MOZAMBIQUE Total Exports 424,463 100.0 195,311 100.0 036.0 Fresh Shellfish 41,598 9.8 74,949 38.4 38.4 0.348 1.323 057.7 Edible Nuts 10,392 2.4 19,261 9.9 48.3 0.152 1.793 057.1 Fresh Fruit 14,260 3.4 17,388 8.8 57.2 0.506 0.858 061.1 Raw Beet and Cane Sugar 17,824 4.2 9,873 5.1 62.2 0.409 0.584 263.1 Raw Cotton 3,159 0.7 9,616 4.9 67.1 0.246 2.658 SENEGAL Total ExportsO36.0 Fresh Shellfish 516,114 100.0 406,632 100.0 037.1 Prepared or Preserved Fish 73,770 14.3 95,184 23.4 23.4 0.617 0.947 034.1 Fresh or Chilled Fish 53,855 10.4 56,968 14.0 37.4 1.499 0.670 423.4 Groundnut Oil 39,568 7,7 46,869 11.5 48.9 0.773 0.878 034.4 Frozen Fish Fillets 112,549 21.8 45,044 11.1 60.0 30.767 0.485 263.1 Raw Cotton 23,733 4.6 30,047 7.4 67.4 0.650 0.876 SUDAN Total Exports 390,722 100.0 354,277 100.0 222.5 Sesame Seeds 26,059 6.7 81,288 22.9 22.9 6.239 3.003 423.4 Groundnut Oil 22,010 5.6 58,371 16.5 39.4 6.017 3.215 263.1 Raw Cotton 164,860 42.2 53,798 14.9 54.3 2.407 0.310 292.2 Natural Gums and Resins 57,724 14.8 33,759 9.5 63.8 25.221 0.482 054.8 Edible Vegetables, nes 13,526 3.5 17,817 5.0 68.8 0.895 2.046 80 Appendix Table 9. Continued 1990 Exports 1998 Exports 1998 1 Import Market Share* Exporter/SITC/Commodity Value ($000) Share (%) Value ($000) Share (%) Cumulative 1990 1998 l ___ I Share | Ratio TANZANIA Total Exports 376,185 100.0 480,218 100.0 071.1 Green and Roasted Coffee 90,873 24.2 112,969 23.5 23.5 1.155 0.714 034.4 Frozen Fish Fillets 2 0.0 53,893 11.2 34.7 0.000 -- 263.1 Raw Cotton 61,275 16.3 52,140 10.9 45.6 0.895 0.823 121.2 Stripped Tobacco 10,652 2.8 43,992 9.2 54.7 0.338 2.906 034.3 Fresh Fish Fillets 0 0.0 21,399 4.5 59.2 0.000 -- TOGO Total Exports 199,366 100.0 189,416 100.0 271.3 Natural Calcium Phosphates 99,712 50.0 73,294 38.7 39.7 6.485 0.873 263.1 Raw Cotton 49,057 24.6 47,142 24.9 63.6 0.716 0.930 071.1 Green or Roasted Coffee 14,576 7.3 19,385 10.2 73.8 0.185 0.765 562.2 Chemical Phosphatic Fertilizer 0 0.0 12,425 8.6 80.4 0.000 -- UGANDA Total Exports 233,850 100.0 432,495 100.0 071. I Green or Roasted Coffee 173,502 74.2 315,670 73.0 73.0 2.205 1.047 034.3 Fresh Fish Fillets 195 0.1 25,926 6.0 79.0 0.039 51.867 034.4 Frozen Fish Fillets 901 0.4 20,869 4.8 83.8 0.025 16.023 263.1 Raw Cotton 10,441 4.5 11,012 2.5 86.4 0.152 1.020 *The 1998 import market share ratio is the country's 1998 import share for that product relative to its share in 1990. Source: Computed from African partner countries statistics as reported in United Nations COMTRADE records. 81 Appendix Table 10. Impact of Competition, Demand and Diversification Factors on Mid-Sized African Countries' Exports: 1990 to 1998 Factors Underlying the 1990-1994 Factors Underlying the 1994-1998 E ports ($ million) Export Chang ($ million)* Export Chan e ($ million)* Exporter 1990 1994 1998 Overall Demand Competitive Overall Demand Competitive Factor Factor Benin 86 118 180 3.1 28.2 I.0 61.7 Ethiopia 286 312 510 75.3 -49.7 60.8 158.2 Guinea 618 607 697 -3.4 -7.7 88.3 0.5 Madagascar 339 519 724 76.4 104.9 94.5 110.8 Malawi 299 335 359 82.1 -46.8 42.5 4.5 Mali 141 141 218 16.4 -33.6 12.4 61.6 Mauritania 464 437 467 36.1 -62.7 49.2 -19.8 Mozambique 424 167 195 56.6 -316.0 16.8 12.9 Senegal 516 394 407 130.8 -251.8 56.8 -45.3 Sudan 391 352 340 46.9 -86.0 50.0 -47.4 Tanzania 376 405 480 73.7 -45.7 54.4 21.8 Togo 199 151 189 12.0 -58.2 20.4 15.7 Uganda 234 411 432 60.4 117.2 83.3 -62.1 ALL ABOVE COUNTRIES 4,373 4,349 5.199 666.4 -707.9 630.4 273.1 *The demand factor isolates the effects of the increase or decrease in global demand for the African countries' exports. This factor shows the percentage increase or decrease in exports that would have occurred had there been no change in the countries' import market shares from the 1990 or 1994 base period. The competitive factor shows the percentage change in exports over or under that associated with demand changes that is due solely to changes in a country's import market shares. The diversification factor shows the percentage change in exports due to the introduction of new products. Any differences between changes in a country's total exports and the sum of these "demand" and "competitive" changes is due to product diversification or the fact that the sum of the reported three-digit SITC exports does not equal the reported COMTRADE total trade figures. Source: Computed from African partner countries' trade statistics as reported in United Nations COMTRADE. 82 Appendix Table 11. Summary Statistics on the RCA Indices of Other SSA Countries 1998 RCA Indices Exporter/SITC/Product Exports ($000) 1990 1998 Change BENIN (Net RCA Change = -1) 08 Animal Feeds 2,246 0.53 1.23 0.70 03 Fish and Preparations 836 1.35 1.11 -0.24 22 Oil Seeds 26,140 41.73 47.25 5.52 26 Textile Fibers 134,277 62.38 185.83 123.45 28 Metal Ores and Scrap 363 3.67 0.21 -3.46 42 Fixed Vegetable Oils 672 13.39 1.10 -12.29 94 Zoo Animals 757 1.94 45.95 44.01 ETHIOPIA (Net RCA Change = -6) 05 Vegetables and Fruit 9,167 2.02 1.19 -0.83 06 Sugar and Honey 0 1.57 0.00 -1.57 07 Coffee ,Tea and Cocoa 377,302 81.99 109.30 27.31 21 Hides and Skins 28,162 59.40 48.19 -11.21 22 Oil Seeds 51,035 1.07 31.42 30.35 26 Textile Fibers 764 1.37 0.36 -1.01 29 Crude Animal and Vegetable Materials 3,155 4.98 1.47 -3.51 43 Processed Animal and Vegetable Oil 1,198 6.67 4.28 -2.39 53 Dyes and Tanning Products 4,726 1.33 1.52 0.19 55 Perfumes and Cleaning Products 110 2.14 0.03 -2.11 61 Dressed Leather 20,241 23.65 9.74 -13.91 71 Power Generating Equipment 7,178 1.81 0.49 -1.32 87 Precision Instruments 7,167 2.76 0.73 -2.03 94 Zoo Animals 3 2.93 0.06 -2.87 GUINEA (Net RCA Change =2) 03 Fish and Preparations 24,572 1.53 3.48 1.95 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 37,053 3.06 8.16 5.51 28 Metal Ores and Scrap 410,700 57.90 61.74 3.84 33 Petroleum and Products 58,161 0.00 1.75 1.75 52 Inorganic Chemicals 13,216 0.00 2.86 2.86 66 Nonmetal Mineral Manufactures 127,088 5.85 9.18 3.33 94 Zoo Animals 1,061 12.13 16.68 4.56 MADAGASCAR (Net RCA Change -4) Live Animals for Food 394 3.79 0.35 -3.44 03 Fish and Preparations 148,730 13.76 20.26 6.65 05 Fruit and Vegetables 59,507 3.43 5.65 2.22 06 Sugar and Honey 5,870 10.53 3.09 -7.44 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 124,715 66.60 26.39 -40.21 21 Hides and Skins 1,364 1.26 1.70 0.44 22 Oil Seeds 736 1.72 0.33 -1.39 26 Textile Fibers 14,033 3.57 4.83 1.26 27 Crude Fertilizers 12,574 11.95 5.63 -6.32 28 Metal Ores and Scrap 2,737 3.58 0.40 -3.15 29 Crude Animal and Vegetable Material 13,875 3.68 4.73 1.05 55 Perfume and Cleaning Products 7,797 2.85 1.57 -1.28 61 Dressed Leather 1,714 2.55 0.60 -1.95- 65 Textile Yarn 15,083 1.90 0.76 1.14 84 Clothing and Accessories 248,272 0.89 8.94 8.05 94 Zoo Animals 2,119 9.73 32.00 22.27 83 Appendix Table 11. Continued 1998 RCA Indices Exporter/SITC/Product Exports ($000) 1990 1998 Change MALAWI (Net RCA Change= -) 05 Fruit and Vegetables 3,118 1.35 0.56 -0.79 06 Sugar and Honey 22,230 23.96 22.21 -1.75 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 63,842 26.11 25.65 -0.48 12 Tobacco 278,590 176.43 211.94 35.51 21 Hides and Skins 958 2.65 2.27 -0.38 26 Textile Fibers 1,441 1.73 0.94 -0.79 29 Crude Animal and Vegetable Materials 3,161 0.05 2.05 2.00 MALI (Net RCA Change = -5) 05 Fruit and Vegetables 4,104 1.18 1.29 0.11 08 Animal Feeds 1,084 0.00 1.20 1.20 21 Hides and Skins 1,879 15.18 7.76 -7.42 22 Oil Seeds 68 1.58 0.10 -1.48 26 Textile Fibers 192,204 96.05 219.68 123.63 28 Metal Ores and Scrap 135 1.30 0.06 -1.24 42 Fixed Vegetable Oils 1 7.30 0.00 -7.30 43 Processed Animal and Vegetable Oils 0 1.74 0.00 -1.74 61 Dressed Leather 4,171 0.12 4.87 4.75 66 Nonmetal Mineral Manufactures 2,216 3.10 0.51 -2.59 79 Other Transport Equipment 633 1.44 0.14 -1.30 94 Zoo Animals 1,303 39.04 65.32 26.28 97 Non-Monetary Gold 443 23.07 0.39 -22.69 MAURITANIA (Net RCA Change = 2) 03 Fish and Preparations 195,206 31.74 41.33 9.59 08 Animal Feeds 3,584 0.00 1.85 1.85 21 Hides and Skins 959 0.05 1.86 1.81 28 Metal Ores and Scrap 258,459 42.42 58.02 15.6 MOZAMBIQUE (Net RCA Change= -4) 03 Fish and Preparations 77,727 8.70 39.33 30.63 05 Vegetables and Fruit 18,032 4.61 6.36 1.75 06 Sugar and Honey 10,997 21.93 21.49 -0.44 12 Tobacco and Manufactures 3,028 4.13 4.51 0.38 25 Paper Pulp 92 2.02 0.13 -1.89 26 Textile Fibers 19,267 3.86 24.64 20.78 27 Crude Fertilizers 13,628 2.26 22.68 20.42 28 Metal Ores and Scrap 801 5.30 0.43 -4.87 32 Coal and Coke 12,321 6.34 14.04 7.70 41 Animal Oils andFats 0 1.12 0.00 -1.12 42 Fixed Vegetable Oils 0 1.53 0.00 -1.53 53 Dyes and Tanning Products 0 1.20 0.00 -1.20 65 Textile Yarns 6,578 0.19 1.23 1.04 67 Iron and Steel 2,156 12.40 0.41 -11.99 68 Non-Ferrous Metals 594 1.96 0.16 -1.80 94 Zoo Animals 148 1.42 8.28 6.86 SENEGAL (Net RCA Change =1) 03 Fish and Preparations 260,408 35.18 63.28 28.1 06 Sugar and Honey 444 1.93 0.42 -1.51 08 Animal Feeds 9,010 16.40 5.34 -11.06 84 Appendix Table 11. Continued 1998 RCA Indices Exporter/SITC/Product Exports ($000) 1990 1998 Change SENEGAL (Continued) 21 Hides and Skins 2,477 3.99 5.52 1.53 22 Oil Seeds 3,241 6.60 2.60 -4.00 26 Textile Fibers 22,084 6.50 13.56 7.06 27 Crude Fertilizers 9,853 26.26 7.87 -18.39 29 Crude Animal and Vegetable Material 2,633 3.37 1.60 -1.77 42 Fixed Vegetable Oils 45,057 79.61 32.67 -46.94 56 Manufactured Fertilizers 3,126 4.83 2.52 -2.31 61 Dressed Leather 2,678 0.01 1.68 1.67 85 Footwear 3,589 0.48 1.01 0.53 94 Zoo Animals 940 39.34 25.32 -14.02 SUDAN (Net RCA Change 1) 00 Live Animals for Food 0 5.55 0.00 -5.55 04 Cereals and Preparations 2,783 4.10 0.86 -3.24 05 Fruit and Vegetables 23,049 2.24 4.48 2.24 06 Sugar and Honey 20,970 10.62 22.59 11.97 08 Animal Feeds 17,780 8.35 12.09 3.74 21 Hides and Skins 4,662 22.04 11.93 -10.11 22 Oil Seeds 93,903 21.37 86.46 65.09 26 Textile Fibers 53,090 67.15 37.43 -29.72 29 Crude animal and Vegetable Material 46,693 35.20 32.62 -2.58 42 Processed Vegetable Oils 58,403 24.21 48.61 24.40 61 Dressed Leather 10,069 0.71 7.24 6.53 65 Textile Yarn 10,984 0.14 1.13 0.99 94 Zoo Animals 4,164 0.00 128.74 128.74 TANZANIA (Net RCA Change = -4) 01 Meat and Preparations 0 2.17 0.00 -2.17 03 Fish and Preparations 101,681 1.81 20.92 19.11 05 Vegetables and Fruit 5,573 2.84 0.80 -2.04 06 Sugar and Honey 14,034 10.40 11.15 0.75 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 137,620 56.79 43.98 -12.81 12 Tobacco 53,702 11.16 32.50 21.34 21 Hides and Skins 5,138 11.68 9.70 -1.98 22 Oil Seeds 7,987 5.09 5.43 0.34 26 Textile Fibers 59,564 26.87 30.98 4.11 29 Crude Animal and Vegetable Materials 15,198 3.17 7.83 4.66 43 Processed Animal and Vegetable Oil 1,682 6.22 6.63 0.41 61 Dressed Leather 861 1.07 0.46 -0.61 65 Textile Yarn 5,029 2.10 0.38 -1.72 68 Non-Ferrous Metals 10,163 2.57 1.10 -1.47 94 Zoo Animals 1,635 53.60 37.30 -16.30 TOGO (Net RCA Change = 0) 03 Fish and Preparations 4,540 2.01 2.37 0.36 07 Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 27,568 14.39 22.33 7.94 08 Animal Feeds 4,734 4.46 6.02 1.56 22 Oil Seeds 4,344 5.45 7.48 2.03 27 Crude Fertilizer 73,298 112.00 125.74 13.74 56 Manufactured Fertilizers 12,425 0.00 21.49 21.49 66 Nonmetal Mineral Manufactures 1,146 1.59 0.30 -1.29 94 Zoo Animals 884 87.44 51,14 -36.30