Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: 78231-ET INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$10 MILLION TO THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA FOR A STATISTICS FOR RESULTS PROJECT May 28, 2014 Poverty Reduction and Economic Management 2 (AFTP2) Country Department AFCE3 Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective March 31, 2014) Currency Unit = Ethiopian Birr ETB 19.37 = US$1 US$ 1.55 = SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR July 8 – July 7 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AGSS Agricultural Sample Survey AWP Annual Work Plan BIs Budgetary Institutions BO Branch Office BPR Business Process Reengineering CAPI Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing CATI Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing CPS Country Partnership Strategy CSA Central Statistical Agency CSA-BPR Central Statistical Office Business Process Reengineering CSO Central Statistical Office CSRP Civil Service Reform Program DDGs Deputy Director Generals DECDG Development Economics Data Group DfID Department for International Development (UK) DG Director General DPs Development Partners DQAF Data Quality Assessment Framework EA Environmental Assessment E-DQAF Ethiopian Data Quality Assessment Framework EFY Ethiopian Fiscal Year EMCP Expenditure Management and Control sub-program ERSS Ethiopian Rural Socioeconomic Survey ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ETB Ethiopian Birr EU European Union FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia FM Financial Management GDDS General Data Dissemination System ii GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System GoE Government of Ethiopia GPN General Procurement Notice GPRS Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy GTP Growth and Transformation Plan HCES Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey HDI Human Development Index HPR House of Peoples’ Representatives HQ Headquarter HR Human Resource IA Implementing Agency IBEX Integrated Budget and Expenditure IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICB International Competitive Bidding ICT Information and Communication Technology IDA International Development Association IFAC International Federation of Accountants IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IFRs Interim Financial Reports IMF International Monetary Fund IS Implementation Support ISIC International Standard Industrial Classification IT Information Technology LFS Labor Force Survey LSMs Living Standards Measurement Study M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MDAs Ministries, Departments, and Agencies MDGs Millennium Development Goals MEDAC Ministry of Economic Development and Cooperation MOFED Ministry of Finance and Economic Development MoU Memorandums of Understanding MTSP Medium Term Statistical Programme NCB National Competitive Bidding NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations NPG National Partnership Group NSDS National Statistical Development Strategy NSOs National Statistical Offices NSS National Statistical System OFAG Office of Federal Audit General OM Operational Manual OP/BP Operational Policy/Bank Procedures iii ORAF Operational Risk Assessment Framework Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End PASDEP Poverty PBS Protection of Basic Services PDO Project Development Objective PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability PFM Public Financial Management PIU Project Implementation Unit P-RAMS Procurement Risk Assessment and Management Systems PSCAP Public Sector Capacity building Support Program QAS Quality Assurance Standard RFP Request for Proposal SC Statistical Council SC Steering Committee SDDS Special Data Dissemination Standard SFR Statistics For Results SMS Studies Measurement Study SoEs Statements of Expenditures SRF-CF Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund ToR Terms of Reference UN United Nations UNDB United Nations Development Business UNDP United Nations Development Program UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund USD United States Dollar WB World Bank WMS Welfare and Monitoring Survey Vice President: Makhtar Diop Country Director: Guang Zhe Chen Sector Director: Marcelo Giugale Sector Manager: Pablo Fajnzylber Task Team Leader: Michael Geiger Co-Task Team Leader: Waleed Haider Malik iv Ethiopia Statistics for Results Facility Project Table of Contents I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT ............................................................................................................ 1 A. Country Context ............................................................................................................................... 1 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context .................................................................................................... 2 C. Rational for Bank Involvement ........................................................................................................ 5 D. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes .............................................................. 6 II. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES.................................................................................. 8 A. Project Development Objective (PDO)............................................................................................ 8 B. Project Beneficiaries ........................................................................................................................ 8 C. PDO Level Results Indicators .......................................................................................................... 8 III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION .......................................................................................................... 9 A. Project Components ......................................................................................................................... 9 B. Project Financing ........................................................................................................................... 13 1. Grant Instrument ........................................................................................................................ 13 2. Project Cost and Financing ........................................................................................................ 13 C. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design ................................................................... 16 D. Alternatives Considered and Reasons for Rejection ...................................................................... 17 IV. IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................................................................ 17 A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements............................................................................ 17 B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation ............................................................................................... 18 C. Sustainability ................................................................................................................................. 18 V. KEY RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ........................................................................... 19 VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 20 A. Economic and Financial Analyses ................................................................................................. 20 B. Technical ........................................................................................................................................ 21 C. Financial management ................................................................................................................... 21 D. Procurement ................................................................................................................................... 22 E. Social ............................................................................................................................................. 22 F. Environment (including safeguards) .............................................................................................. 23 Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring ........................................................................ 26 Annex 2: Detailed Project Description and Project Costs ..................................................... 31 Annex 3: Implementation Arrangements ................................................................................ 36 Annex 5: Implementation Support Plan – Strategy and Approach ....................................... 42 Annex 6: Sector Background ..................................................................................................... 44 Annex 7: Procurement Arrangements ...................................................................................... 63 Annex 8: Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements ..................................... 68 v Annex 9: Benefits of Good Statistical Information .................................................................. 78 Annex 10: National Partnership Group -- Draft Terms of Reference (ToR) ........................ 80 Annex 11: Team Composition.................................................................................................... 83 Annex 12: Country at a Glance ................................................................................................. 84 Annex 13: Map of Ethiopia ........................................................................................................ 87 List of Figures Figure 1: Institutional Framework: CSA’s Current Mandate in Statistical Development .............. 3 Figure 2: International Comparison of NSOs Size ......................................................................... 4 List of Tables Table 1: Summary of Allocations by Project Component ............................................................ 14 Table 2: Summary of Allocations by Six Components of the NSDS ........................................... 15 Table 3: Main Donor Supported Statistical Programs Supporting CSA ...................................... 16 vi PAD DATA SHEET Ethiopia Ethiopia Statistics for Results Facility (P147356) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT AFRICA AFTP2 Report No.: PAD806 Basic Information Project ID EA Category Team Leader/Co-Team Leader P147356 B - Partial Assessment Michael Tobias Geiger (TTL) Waleed Haider Malik (Co-TTL) Lending Instrument Fragile and/or Capacity Constraints [ ] Investment Project Financing Financial Intermediaries [ ] Series of Projects [ ] Project Implementation Start Date Project Implementation End Date May 28, 2014 30-Jun-2017 Expected Effectiveness Date Expected Closing Date 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2017 Joint IFC No Sector Manager Sector Director Country Director Regional Vice President Pablo Fajnzylber Marcelo Giugale Guang Zhe Chen Makhtar Diop . Borrower: Federal Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Responsible Agency: Central Statistical Agency Contact: Mrs. Samia Zekaria Gutu Title: Director General Telephone No.: 251-1-11-553011 Email: samiaz@ethionet.et . Approval Authority Approval Authority RVP Decision Please explain: This grant requires Regional Vice President approval according to the Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund requirements. vii . Project Financing Data(in USD Million) [ ] Loan [X] Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Credit [ ] IDA Grant [ ] Other Total Project Cost: 10.00 Total Bank Financing: 0.00 Financing Gap: 0.00 . Financing Source Amount Borrower 0.00 Statistics for Results Trust Fund 10.00 Total 10.00 . Expected Disbursements (in USD Million) Fiscal Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Annual 0.50 2.50 4.50 1.50 1.00 Cumulative 0.50 3.00 7.50 9.00 10.00 . Proposed Development Objective(s) The objective of the Project is to enhance the capacity of the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) at the organizational, human, and physical levels in order to produce and disseminate reliable, accessible, and timely statistics. . Components Component Name Cost (USD Millions) Component 1: Organizational and Infrastructure Capacity 4.90 Development in the National Statistical System Component 2: Statistical Data Development and Management 1.50 Component 3: Statistical Methodology, Standards and Data 1.90 Quality Assurance and Information Dissemination Component 4: Monitoring and Evaluation 1.70 . Institutional Data Sector Board Economic Policy . Sectors / Climate Change viii Sector (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major Sector Sector % Adaptation Co- Mitigation benefits % Co-benefits % Public Administration, Law, and General public 100 Justice administration sector Total 100 I certify that there is no Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Co-benefits information applicable to this project. . Themes Theme (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major theme Theme % Public sector governance Managing for development results 50 Economic management Economic statistics, modeling and forecasting 20 Public sector governance Administrative and civil service reform 20 Economic management Analysis of economic growth 10 Total 100 . Compliance Policy Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant respects? Yes [ ] No [ X] . Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Have these been approved by Bank management? Yes [ ] No [ ] Is approval for any policy waiver sought from the Board? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Yes [ X ] No [ ] . Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X Forests OP/BP 4.36 X Pest Management OP 4.09 X Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X ix Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 X Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X . Legal Covenants Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency Withdrawal of the Grant Proceeds 01-Oct-2014 On-going Description of Covenant As per Grant Agreement Section IV (c ) (i): No later than three (3) months after the Effective Date of the Project, establish and thereafter maintain, the CSA Project Implementation Unit, in accordance with staffing, resources, terms of reference, and with substance satisfactory to the World Bank. Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency Withdrawal of the Grant Proceeds 01-Oct-2014 On-going Description of Covenant As per Grant Agreement Section IV (c ) (ii): No later than three (3) months after the Effective Date of this Project, prepare and adopt, Project Operational Manual, in form and substance satisfactory to the World Bank, and thereafter ensure that the Project is carried in out in accordance with said manual. . Team Composition Bank Staff Name Title Specialization Unit Lars Moller Lead Economist and Lead Economist and Sector AFTP2 Sector Leader PREM Leader PREM Grant James Cameron Manager Manager DECDG Michael Gieger Task Team Leader Senior Economist AFTP2 Waleed Haider Malik Co-Task Team Leader Senior Public Sector Mgmt. AFTP2 Spec. Alexandra C. Bezeredi Regional Environmental Regional Environmental and AFTSG and Safeguards Advisor Safeguards Advisor Patricia De la Fuente Senior Finance Officer Senior Finance Officer CTRLN Hoyes Barbro E. Hexeberg Senior Economist Senior Economist DECDG Alemayehu Ambel Economist Economist DECDG Masako Hiraga Senior Economist/ Senior Economist/Statistician DECDG Statistician Andrew L. Dabalen Lead Poverty Specialist Lead Poverty Specialist AFTPM x Mohammad Nadeem Legal Analyst Legal Analyst LEGAM Mesfin Girma Economist Economist AFTP2 Bezawagaw Senait Kassa Yifru Program Assistant Program Assistant AFTP2 Hikaru Kitai Consultant Consultant SASGP Martin Pedro Buchara Team Assistant Team Assistant AFTP2 Christiaan Johannes Finance Officer Finance Officer CTRLA Nieuwoudt Tafesse Freminatos Consultant Consultant AFTME Abrham Abiy Demissie Belay Sr Financial Sr Financial Management AFTME Management Specialist Specialist Thomas Danielewitz Statistician Peer Reviewer DECDG Alemayehu A. Ambel Economist Economist DECPI Binyam Bedelu Senior Procurement Senior Procurement Specialist AFTPE Specialist Asferachew Abate Senior Environmental Senior Environmental AFTN3 Abebe Specialist Specialist Hanna Ketselamaryam Team Assistant Team Assistant AFCE3 Hailu Robi Reda Consultant Consultant AFTP2 Melat Assefa Asfaw Consultant Consultant AFTP2 Abiy Tessema Ashagre Consultant Consultant AFTP2 Candace Asrat Gebre Consultant Consultant AFTP2 Non Bank Staff Name Title Office Phone City Kenny Osborne DFID Advisor Addis Ababa Yusuf Murangwa Director General NISR Kigali Government of Rwanda . Locations Country First Location Planned Actual Comments Administrative Division Ethiopia Addis Ababa Addis Ababa X Hawassa, Mekele, Bahir Dar, and Ambo xi I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT A. Country Context 1. Ethiopia is a large and diverse country. It is located in the Horn of Africa and is land- locked with an area of 1.1 million square kilometers—about the size of France and Spain combined. Ethiopia’s biophysical environment includes a variety of contrasting ecosystems, with significant differences in climate, soil properties, vegetation types, agricultural potential, biodiversity, and water resources. Ethiopia is a country of many nations, nationalities, and people, with a total population of 91.7 million (2012).1 Only 17 percent of the population lives in urban centers, with the great majority of them living in Addis Ababa. At a current annual growth rate of 2.6 percent, Ethiopia’s population is estimated to reach 130 million by 2025, and is projected by the United Nations (UN) to be among the world’s top 10 by 2050. Ethiopia is vulnerable to terms of trade shocks from international food and fuel prices, and to large domestic weather-related shocks, as the 2011/12 East Africa drought demonstrated. 2. Ethiopia has experienced strong economic growth over the past decade. Economic growth averaged 10.7 percent per year in 2003/04 to 2011/12, compared with the regional average of 5.4 percent. This growth reflected a mix of factors, including agricultural modernization, the development of new export sectors, strong global commodity demand, and government-led development investments. Private consumption and public investment have driven demand-side growth, with the latter assuming an increasingly important role in recent years. On the supply side, growth was driven by an expansion of the services and agricultural sectors, while the role of the industrial sector was relatively modest. More recently, annual growth rates have declined slightly, but still remain at high single-digit levels. Growth in the export of goods has also moderated in recent years, and a decline was observed in 2012/13 for the first time since 2008/09. There have been bouts of high inflation in recent years and, while inflation is currently much lower, keeping it down remains a major objective for monetary policy. 3. Ethiopia is one of the world's poorest countries, but has made substantial progress on social and human development over the past decade. The country’s per capita income of US$370 is substantially lower than the regional average of US$1,257, and is among the 10 lowest worldwide. 2 Ethiopia is ranked 173 out of 187 countries in the Human Development Index (HDI) of the United Nations Development Programme. However, high economic growth has helped reduce poverty, in both urban and rural areas. Since 2005, 2.5 million people have been lifted out of poverty, and the share of the population below the poverty line has fallen from 38.7 percent in 2004/05 to 29.6 percent in 2010/11 (using a poverty line of close to US$1.25/day). However, because of high population growth, the absolute number of poor people (about 25 million) has remained unchanged over the past 15 years. Ethiopia is among the countries that have made the fastest progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and HDI ranking over the past decade. It is on track to achieve the MDGs related to gender 1 Source: United Nations. According to the Ethiopian Central Statistics Office, the population figure is 82.6 million. 2 Gross National Income, World Bank Atlas Method. 1 parity in education, child mortality, HIV/AIDS, and malaria. Ethiopia has achieved substantial progress in universal primary education, although it may not meet the MDG target. The reduction of maternal mortality remains a challenge. 4. The Government of Ethiopia is currently implementing an ambitious Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) 2010/11–2014/15, which sets a long-term goal of becoming a middle-income country by 2023, with growth rates of at least 11.2 percent per annum during the plan period. To achieve the GTP goals and objectives, the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) has followed a “developmental state” model with a strong role for the government in many aspects of the economy. It has prioritized key sectors, such as industry and agriculture, as drivers of sustained economic growth and job creation. The GTP reaffirms the GoE’s commitment to human development. Development partners have programs that are broadly aligned with the GTP priorities. B. Sectoral and Institutional Context 5. The use of statistical information for economic management in Ethiopia started in the 1960s. In 1963 the Central Statistical Office (CSO) was founded with a mandate of conducting regular statistical activities. The CSO reported to the Ministry of Planning and Development, and later to the Planning Commission until 1989, with some reorganization in between. In 1989, it was restructured to become the Central Statistical Authority, which was initially accountable to the Council of Ministers and later to the Ministry of Economic Development and Cooperation (MEDAC), then to the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED)3 The current statistical law passed on 20 April 2005 (Proclamation No 442/205) reestablished the CSA as an autonomous Federal agency reporting to MOFED. 6. The National Statistical Development Strategy (NSDS) for Ethiopia covers the period from 2009/10 to 2013/14. It succeeds the Medium Term Statistical Programme (MTSP) for the CSA that ended in 2008, but it differs in scope. The NSDS covers statistical development in the entire National Statistical System (NSS). The NSDS, developed through a participatory process, has six interconnected strategic themes: (i) implementation of the statistics law, which mainly pertains to the coordination of the NSS and establishment of appropriate organizational units and standards; (ii) development of data quality procedures, which corresponds to the development of data quality assessment framework (DQAF), coordinated by the CSA for the NSS; (iii) enhancement of advocacy and use of statistics through promotion of a common website for the NSS, and training of stakeholders; (iv) methodological improvements and statistical modernization, which relates to identification and filling of data gaps and reduction of duplication of surveys; (v) Capacity development in the NSS to meet the increased demand for statistics, which involves investments that improve organizational arrangements, enhance training and availability of skilled staff, encourage staff retention and reduce turnover, leverage ICT for quick data capture and dissemination, provide additional space, furniture and appropriate facilities for a conducive work environment and efficient operations; and (vi) relating the NSDS to the Monitoring and Evaluation of PASDEP and other interventions such as MDGs. 3 Formerly Ministry of Economic Development and Cooperation (MEDAC) before September 2001. 2 7. The CSA has two objectives: (i) to plan, collect, process, and disseminate statistical data and (ii) to lead national coordination and provide technical guidance and assistance to government agencies and institutions in building administrative systems and registers (see Figure 1). It is the principal collector, aggregator and disseminator of official statistics and the coordinator of the National Statistical System (NSS)4. The CSA has a staff of almost 2500, of which approximately 50 are managers, 380 are statisticians, 400 are technical and administrative professionals, 1400 are support staff, and 250 logistical staff. Its annual budget (both capital and recurrent) is about US$10 million, of which about 30 percent is for staff salaries and the rest for surveys and operations (2012). This funding model of the CSA differs favorably from many other statistical offices in Africa that usually fund staff salaries but do not provide budget for conducting surveys. In view of government ownership and funding CSA has conducted a number of surveys and censuses in the last few years. The CSA has also collaborated with national government agencies and international development partners to build Ethiopia’s statistical infrastructure. Figure 1: Institutional Framework: CSA’s Current Mandate in Statistical Development Internal Since its • ….plan, collect, produce and creation disseminate statistics… External Since • …lead national coordination.. 2005 and assist institutions… 8. The CSA’s 25 branch offices enhance data quality by ensuring the Agency’s presence close to the enumeration areas. The branches allow easier provision of routine supervision, and speedy resolution of field-level issues. This decentralized presence also facilitates deployment of resident enumerators who update sampling frames and conduct interviews at the convenience of the respondent. 4 The National Strategy for the Development of Statistics lists federal and regional government ministries departments and agencies as well as research and teaching institutions and civil society organizations as NSS members. 3 Figure 2: International Comparison of NSOs Size No. of Staff per 100,000 population 11.34 9.3 5.7 4.7 3.4 2.3 1.2 1.7 0.79 0.98 1.13 Source: Various Statistical Agencies 9. The CSA is the leading organization in the NSS, with 25 branch offices and 72 percent of its staff in the field. However, the NSS faces several institutional weaknesses and organizational challenges. These were broadly identified in the National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) and are summarized in three categories as follows (See Annex 6 for details):  Weak institutional capacity within CSA and statistics-producing Government ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) to execute planned surveys, carry out in- depth analysis, regularly assess user needs, and disseminate statistical products and services. Management of resources is also deficient, physical and IT infrastructure is sub- optimal, and staff salaries are low while statistical staff turnover is high. In light of the fast expanding demand for statistics, CSA’s organization may have to be right-sized (e.g. expanded by increasing the number of permanent statisticians). International comparisons of NSOs size indicate that Ethiopia compares unfavorably with large federal states e.g. Turkey and South Africa (i.e., 3.4 staff per 100,000 populations as opposed to 4.7 and 5.7, respectively) (see Figure 25).  Data gaps due to incomplete sampling frames in some sectors, such as business statistics; lack of data for some sectors such as mining, energy, construction and transport sectors; 5 Based on various sources and mission findings: Cambodia-National Statistics System Annual Report 2010; Ethiopia Central Statistical Agency 2013; Kenya-KNBS Strategic Plan 2008-2012. Page 11; South Korea-Overview of KOSTAT (UNStat); Malaysia.- Country Assessment Report. 2011. Agriculture Statistics System. Page 7. Working Draft; Rwanda-National Institute for Statistics 2013; Senegal -Rapport Annuel d’activites 2010. Page 40; South Africa-Annual Report. 2011/2012. Page 167; Tanzania-Annual Report. 2010/11. Statistical Master Plan. Page 20; Turkey-Strategic Plan 2012-2016. Page 51; Uganda-Sector Strategic Plan for Statistics. 2007-2012. Page 7. It is important to note that cross country comparisons need to be interpreted with caution as NSO mandates, functions and settings vary across countries. For example, some NSOs handle “national accounts” (e.g. Rwanda) while others do not (e.g. Ethiopia) making comparisons difficult. Also, some NSOs use ICT while others handle all the data collection process manually. International comparisons are also affected by basic information gaps, especially on operational and human resource areas. 4 little, or no, time series data in some areas to maintain consistency in results from year to year; and lack of timeliness of data coming from some of the existing surveys.  Coordination problems, as manifested by the lack of a single database for statistics produced by the ministries, which result in the duplication of efforts and contradictory estimates from data producers on similar variables. 10. The CSA and key MDAs need to improve their ability to produce timely and reliable statistics, and build public trust in official statistics. In particular, the CSA needs to establish itself as a leading producer, and provider, of cost-effective, timely and quality statistics. There is also a need to strengthen the CSA’s physical and statistical capacity to carry out its mission as the principal collector, aggregator and disseminator of statistics and the coordinator of the NSS. 11. The NSDS proposes investments in data development, human capacity and physical and transport infrastructure and logistics. However, while the design of the NSDS is satisfactory in identifying challenges, it is weak on implementation. The World Bank and the CSA identified the following 5 implementation priority areas that need institutional strengthening6 (see Annex 6 for details):  Organizational and infrastructure development  Data development and management  Methodological research and analysis  Dissemination and statistical advocacy  Monitoring and evaluation 12. The GTP identifies sectoral targets and strategies to enhance economic growth and achieve medium and long term objectives. The development strategy has also highlighted the importance of data to track and monitor achievements of targets underlined in the Plan. The Government of Ethiopia has committed itself to an agenda of results that require clear and systematic measurement, monitoring, and evaluation of the achievement of outputs, outcomes, and the impact of development policies and plan targets. Ethiopia’s national statistical system (NSS) is charged with the responsibility of providing the information required to measure, monitor and evaluate the development process. Data on various sectors of the economy are also required to inform private sector investment decisions. In addition, the recent expansion in higher learning institutions and graduate programs in the country will further increase the demand for quality data and thereby increased the need for official statistical information. C. Rational for Bank Involvement 13. The proposed project is consistent with the Ethiopia Country Partnership Strategy (CPS, Report no.71884-ET) which was discussed by the Executive Directors on September 6 These five areas represent the most urgent and immediate priorities of the unfunded NSDS priorities (identified in the mid- term review of the NSDS); it is envisaged that the SFR Project and the establishment of the National Partnership Group (NPG) for Ethiopia would be able to trigger additional funding from government and development partners alike. 5 25, 2012. The strategy for Ethiopia notes the importance of strengthening the statistical capacity of the CSA to produce data in order to measure the impacts of its interventions. 14. The project will also allow the CSA and the World Bank to further strengthen ongoing collaborative surveys. The Bank has already made investments in the CSA at different times over the last few years. The World Bank has directly partnered with the CSA to implement surveys and statistical capacity building activities. For example, recently completed and on- going collaborations between the World Bank and the CSA include the following: Rural Investment Climate Survey, Productive Safety Net Program, Protection of Basic Services, and Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey. In addition, the World Bank has assisted the CSA through other government agencies and international research organizations to help implement large surveys such as the Welfare Monitoring Survey, the Sustainable Land Management Survey, and the survey component of the Agricultural Growth Program. 15. The World Bank’s support to statistical capacity-building in Ethiopia follows the principles of the Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund (SRF-CF). The SRF-CF seeks to guide the support programs through a National Partnership Group (NPG) and to base statistical capacity building on the priorities identified in the NSDS. In fact, the SRF is aiming to close some of the funding gaps currently in the NSDS implementation plan, address capacity gaps highlighted by the NSDS, and leverage additional financing through partners to meet CSA needs. The World Bank also encourages the government, where possible, to use some of its IDA credits towards this statistical purpose. This is of particular importance to ensure long-term sustainability in the National Statistical System. D. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes 16. Achieving the goals of the GOE’s Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and facilitating the Post-2015 MDG Agenda Setting will be supported. Improvements in the quality, relevance and timeliness of priority statistics will contribute to more effective development policy by: (1) providing the basis for monitoring and evaluating the Government’s GTP7 and for tracking the progress of MDGs, and (2) by providing feedback to policy-makers and citizens on the effectiveness of public policy and the use of public resources. It will also help policy makers in preparing reports that can facilitate post-2015 MDG agenda planning. The proposed Statistics for Results (SFR) project is closely related to the goals outlined in the 2013-2016 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) of Ethiopia. It is designed to support the NSDS, which is expected to provide the relevant indicators to be used in formulating, updating, monitoring and evaluating the strategies and targets of the country’s social and economic development programs. The CPS Result Framework is aligned to the GTP framework. Thus, strengthening the national statistical system would greatly improve the indicators and data used for monitoring performance under both this framework and the CPS. 17. Furthermore, the proposed operation will directly support the objectives of improving governance and public sector capacity in Ethiopia, which forms the foundation of the World Bank Africa Regional Strategy (2011). It is expected that enabling appropriate 7 GTP sets out the country’s objectives, priorities and major policies to be implemented during 2009-2014. 6 data to be readily available and accessible to users will improve governance. The Ethiopia SFR project is also designed to support the capacity building efforts of the CSA and other related National Statistical System agencies at the federal and regional levels (e.g. training in statistical systems). Given the fundamental nature of statistics in the economy, the Project will indirectly contribute to the two pillars of the World Bank Africa Regional Strategy: competitiveness and resilience. It will contribute to competitiveness via trade data and data obtained from business enterprise-based censuses/surveys; and to resilience through statistics obtained from household- based censuses/surveys and from pilot vital statistics development programs. 18. Supporting World Bank Goals of Reducing Extreme Poverty and Promoting Shared Prosperity, and Fulfilling IDA Priorities would be the main areas of the project’s focus.. Support for the improvement of national statistical capacity and data quality in Ethiopia is consistent with the focus on measureable results in the recently-approved World Bank goals (May 2013): (a) end extreme poverty: decreasing the percentage of people living with less than $1.25 a day to no more than 3 percent globally by 2030; and (b) promote shared prosperity: foster the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population in every country. Also, support for statistical capacity development is consistent with the focus on results measurement, as agreed during the IDA15 and IDA16 replenishments and already highlighted as a key element of IDA17 programs. Specifically, the negotiations for the IDA15 and IDA16 replenishments emphasized the importance of management for development results and the central role that national statistical systems have in this process, and therefore encouraged IDA to support client countries in its efforts to improve results-based management. The IDA17 seeks to support the post-2015 MDG agenda, among other programs. In addition, the Bank’s support to the NSDS program is also in line with the Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund (SRF-CF) that aims to provide support to developing countries—such as Ethiopia —to help them improve their statistical capacity. Ethiopia met all of the Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund (SRF-CF) requirements. The SRF Council approved Ethiopia’s application on January 11, 2013. 19. Institutional readiness and evidence-based decision-making culture would be promoted by the proposed project. The program will improve the data needed to support an evidence-based planning and decision-making culture. When data are uncertain or unreliable, or when users lack confidence in the institutions that produce them, decision-makers tend to base decisions on their assumptions about the world and the prevailing ideology. This creates an environment where strategies and plans are devised and implemented without attention to empirical evidence and with weak monitoring and evaluation practices. This in turn further emphasizes the importance of promoting of demand for data by providing users with relevant, reliable and timely data, and the tools to interpret them. The project will focus on making statistical data easier to find and use, and to equip both public and private users with the necessary tools for basing decisions on facts. 20. Strengthening governance and accountability will improve outcomes. Reliable, relevant and freely-accessible information is an important building block of an open and democratic society with a transparent and accountable government. The project will improve the relevance, timeliness and reliability of data, and strengthen the analysis and use of statistics by increasing awareness, improving engagement with public and private data users, and 7 strengthening the analytical and dissemination capacities of statistical service providers. The project will also support implementation of the GOE’s ICT initiatives. II. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. Project Development Objective (PDO) 21. The objective of the proposed project is to enhance the capacity of the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) at the organizational, human, and physical levels in order to produce and disseminate reliable, accessible, and timely statistics. This will be achieved through modernization of the CSA’s organizational and data development capabilities and infrastructure at headquarters and select branch offices, as well as through improvement of the data management capabilities of key Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) in the National Statistical System (NSS). The target users and beneficiaries of the project would be both the government and the general public and stakeholders. B. Project Beneficiaries 22. The World Bank Project will support part of the overall GOE program: The NSDS, including modernization of the CSA. Key producers and users of statistics in National Statistical System (NSS) of Ethiopia are the main beneficiaries. They include: (i) the Central Statistical Agency (CSA); (ii) the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED) and select Ministries Departments and Agencies (MDAs), Regional Governments and City Administration Authorities; (iii) Parliament (iv) judicial branch authorities; (v) policy makers and planners in the public and private sectors, including civil society organizations; (vi) researchers, associations and academia; (vii) international, regional, and global organizations and entities; and (viii) members of the general public, who will also benefit from better and faster access to information. C. PDO Level Results Indicators 23. The project development objective will be assessed by the quality and timeliness of statistical products and services produced by the Central Statistical Agency (CSA). The main outcomes will be improvements in the availability and reliability of statistical information for effective policymaking, good governance, and the design and monitoring of programs and policies. This will be measured by the following results indicators 8: (i) Reliability and Quality: The CSA applies internationally-accepted statistical techniques and ICT applications in the collection, compilation and authenticity verification of data, and validates data sources and statistical products in select Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs). (ii) Timeliness: Timeliness and increased frequency of publication for key statistics in line with national standards as agreed upon by CSA and MDAs. 8 These were re-confirmed during negotiations. 8 (iii) Access: Data readily available to users through Open Data Portal and eCSA Program on Wheels. III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION A. Project Components 24. The project has four components described ahead. The project components are designed to support the implementation of activities drawn from these strategic themes of the NSDS9, namely: (a) enhancing advocacy and use of statistics; (b) methodological improvements and statistical modernization; and (c) capacity building (organization and infrastructure) in the NSS. The project’s design takes into account the findings of the NSDS mid-term review and plans to support development of the NSDSII (2015-2018). These components are briefly described below. 25. Component 1: Organizational and Infrastructure Capacity Development in the NSS (US$ 4.9 Million): Support to improve organizational performance, staff productivity, and data accessibility by strengthening planning and physical infrastructure at the CSA. 26. The component aims to improve organizational performance, staff productivity and data accessibility by strengthening planning, training and physical infrastructure at the CSA, as per the findings of NSDS mid-term review, Central Statistical Office Business Process Reengineering (CSA-BPR), CSA Space Audit and other reviews. 27. Sub-Component 1.1. Organizational Strengthening: This sub-component aims at enhancing institutional management and logistical capacity at the CSA. The project will, therefore, support the following activities: (i) strategic planning and visioning exercises for the introduction of improved management and administration systems in the CSA, and provide technical assistance to strengthen the national account statistics (ii) upgrade of office space at the headquarters to conduct training for CSA and NSS staff and provision of furniture and equipment in headquarters ; (iii) executive development training, peer-to-peer learning and knowledge sharing with sister institutions for CSA and NSS stakeholder staff. 28. Sub-Component 1.2. Physical Infrastructure: This sub-component aims at enhancing staff productivity in the CSA by improving working conditions. The project will, therefore, support: (i) construction and furnishing of 4 of the 25 branch office buildings that the CSA has planned to build in the next few years to introduce new work methods, organizational design and IT systems . Potential locations for branch office construction include Ambo, Hawassa, Mekele, and Bahir Dar. Selection criteria and other requirements, including sequencing, have been outlined in the ESMF, which was disclosed on the CSA website and Bank InfoShop on February 13 and February 14, 2014, respectively. Model office designs have been prepared and are available in project files. 29. Sub-Component 1.3. ICT Infrastructure, Systems and Tools for Data Production and Management: The objective of this sub-component is to modernize data collection, data entry, 9 As noted above in Section B paragraph 8. NSDS detailed description also provided in Annex 6. 9 data storage, data analysis, and dissemination capacity in the CSA. This will be accomplished through provision of a data-center, video conferencing equipment and infrastructure, and the latest survey technology and institutional management tools. The project will, therefore, finance (i) procurement and installation of data center and video conferencing infrastructure ; (ii) procurement of computers, laptops, tablets, iPads, and relevant hardware and software accessories, and (iii) training activities for the use of modern technologies (e.g. GPS, eCartography, eMapping, eSurveying, Infographics), computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI), and computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) and other data collection, analysis and dissemination techniques and applications. The ICT sub-component would provide technological interface and support for the implementation of Component 2, which is aimed at enhanced data production; and Component 3, which is aimed at data quality assurance; and open data dissemination (see below). 30. Activities in Component 1 are in close alignment with other ongoing capacity development initiatives in the area of ICT in support for the CSA’s work in collaboration with World Bank and other development partners. According to the NSDS mid-term review, support for organizational strengthening and infrastructure upgrading are considered critical for sustainable capacity improvement of the CSA and the overall NSS development. Only limited building infrastructure needs are being addressed under this component (i.e., construction of 4 or 5 out of 25 planned offices nationwide). It would therefore be useful for the CSA to explore other financing options to fund additional facilities once this project is sufficiently advanced, and model CSA offices are constructed and made operational, and when SFR Project implementation rating is satisfactory or higher. 31. Component 2: Statistical Data Development and Management (US$ 1.5 million): Support to strengthen the quality of statistical data production, compilation, and validation, including preparatory activities and technical assistance to help undertake selected NSDS priority surveys. 32. This component will support activities to strengthen the quality of data produced, following internationally-accepted standards and methodologies in data collection, compilation, and validation. It will also support some preparatory activities, including sampling frame development, training, workshops, purchase and piloting of modern tools, and other technical assistance and logistical vehicles to help undertake some of the agreed-upon NSDS priority surveys. Data development activities would potentially include following support areas, inter alia: 33. Sub-Component 2.1. Development of Business Statistics:10 This sub-component aims to strengthen the CSA’s statistical capacity in the area of business statistics, which combines various sectoral sources from relevant national and regional agencies. 11 The project could, 10 This would complement resources from the European Union through its Transformation Triggering Facility for Ethiopia. If additional EU resources are confirmed currently allocated resources would be used to strengthen other components of this project. 11 At the national level, administrative data sources would come from the Ministry of Trade and Industry, the Ministry of Revenue, and the National Bank of Ethiopia. The primary source for the regional/local level trade activities would be Regional Trade Bureau. 10 therefore, finance: (i) the design of a comprehensive business register that integrates data sources; (ii) the pilot computerization of the register and development of mechanisms to remove duplicates; (iii) the development of bridge tables to reclassify the register entries to the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC); and (iv) the set-up of a system that regularly updates the business register and caters to changes in the status of the business entity. 34. Sub-Component 2.2. Development of Mining, Energy, Construction and Transport Sector Statistics: The objective of this sub-component is to narrow the gap in data needed for national accounts. The project could, therefore, finance: (i) design of survey instruments (e.g. sampling frames, questionnaires, manuals etc.) to help consolidate and reveal data gaps in national accounts; and (ii) training of ministry statistical staff and officials; 35. Sub-Component 2.3. Support for Planning and Development of the Next Agricultural Census: The sub-component aims to support the preparatory activities of the next agricultural census 2014-2015. The component could, therefore, finance: (i) preparatory planning workshops for the next Agriculture census; (ii) design of survey instruments (e.g. sampling frames, questionnaires, manuals, etc.); (iii) piloting of new methods for data collection; and (iv) research studies on “standard and non-standard” units in estimation of area and production, among other areas. 36. Sub-Component 2.4. Improving Coverage and Quality of the Annual Agricultural Sample Survey (AGSS): This sub-component aims to develop and test a survey methodology to expand the coverage of AGSS in pastoral areas (Afar and Somalie regions). The sub-component could, therefore, finance: (i) piloting of new methods in selected pastoral areas; (ii) implementation of CAPI in selected AGSS enumeration areas; and (iii) supporting field staff training. 37. Sub-Component 2.5. Planning and Compilation of Vital Statistics: This sub-component aims at laying the foundation for long-term development of vital registration systems in the regions, as outlined in the recently-approved Vital Statistics Law. The NSDS has already made plans for a review and implementation of the system by the CSA in collaboration with regional governments. This component could, therefore, finance technical assistance to the relevant government agency in areas of instrument design and building CSA’s vital statistics data management and analytical capacity. 38. The activities in Component 2 are in close alignment with NSDS, GTP and Vital Statistics Law priorities. In order to introduce flexibility in project design, efforts will be made under this component to partner with other institutions and agencies when the latest survey tools are tested and results shared to promote the potential scale-up of data production pilots (e.g. on vital statistics and use of ICT tools for poverty/other surveys)12. 12 Consistent with the World Bank’s twin goals and upcoming strategy (2013) [“eliminating extreme poverty…and boosting shared prosperity..”], lessons and outputs of the World Bank Africa Region’s “Listening to Africa” program would be shared (e.g. from Tanzania, Malawi, and Madagascar) and if possible tested in Ethiopia under this project component using grant resources from the Bank or other interested donor. Also, outputs of UNECA research program on the use of ICT for statistical surveys and census would be shared with CSA and other NSS members to promote learning. 11 39. Component 3: Statistical Methodology, Standards and Data Quality Assurance and Information Dissemination (US$ 1.9 Million): Support to promote, sensitize and implement the data quality assurance framework standard (“DQAF-E”) and support improvements in services for users, including dissemination of regular statistical publications to promote statistical education among citizens and non-governmental organizations. 40. This component aims to promote, sensitize and implement the Data Quality Assurance Framework Standard (DQAF-E) prepared by the CSA for the NSS, and to support improvements in services for users, including dissemination of regular statistical publications produced by both the CSA and its key MDAs as per the release calendar, and to promote statistical education of citizens and NGOs. This component will have two sub-components. 41. Sub-Component 3.1. Statistical Methodology, Standards and Data Quality Assurance. This sub-component aims to promote, sensitize and implement the Data Quality Assurance Framework Standard (DQAF-E) prepared by the CSA for the NSS. The component will, therefore, finance: (i) educational and outreach materials on QAS and training and sensitization of CSA staff and NSS stakeholders at the CSA training center to be set up under the project ; (ii) organizing “specialized” short- and long-term educational statistical courses and study visits for CSA and partner MDAs staff on select data quality assurance topics (e.g. survey methods, poverty mapping techniques, gender analysis of household surveys, data production priorities); (iii) providing assistance to Household Consumption & Expenditure Survey (HCES) and Welfare & Monitoring Survey (WMS); and (iv) providing technical assistance to improve quality of poverty mapping and gender statistics and analysis. The CSA is receiving complementary resources from the World Bank-supported Protection of Basic Services (PBS) project for promoting quality standards in select sectors. 42. Sub-Component 3.2: Information Dissemination: The aims of the sub-component are to support improvements in services for users, including dissemination of regular statistical publications produced by both the CSA and its key MDAs as per the release calendar, and to promote statistical education of citizens and NGOs. The component will, therefore, finance: (i) stakeholder analysis including development of user satisfaction index, training and communication support (e.g. via web, media, radio); (ii) upgrades to the CSA library and open web portal, which will enable civil society, NGOs, researchers, and the private sector to access the CSA and NSS data for policy making, investment decisions or research purposes; (iii) publication of flagship statistical reports and documents produced by the CSA to build the CSA brand; and (iv) the launch of the eCSA mobile education office by identifying and training appropriate staff, offering adequate per diems, and procuring a vehicle (air-conditioned bus or similar transport) equipped with multi-media and ICT tools, as well as relevant statistical education materials and publications, for visits to educational institutions, libraries, municipalities, Woredas and other locations. This could help enhance the CSA’s leadership in the NSS and promote the importance of statistics in national and regional development. This could be undertaken as a combined effort of the CSA, MOFED, Statistical Council and regional governments, and other actors. 12 43. Component 4. Monitoring and Evaluation (US$ 1.7 Million): Provide support to strength the monitoring and evaluation capabilities of the CSA with respect to the NSDS and the proposed Project’s coordination and fiduciary requirements. 44. This component aims to strengthen the monitoring and evaluation capabilities of the CSA with respect to the NSDS and the proposed Project’s coordination and fiduciary requirements, including ESMF implementation. It will (i) finance consultations for the development of the next NSDSII, (ii) provide technical assistance to strengthen the national account statistics.; finance also M&E of GTP and GTP2 at an estimated cost of US$0.3 million. The component will also support SFR project management activities, including Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) implementation requirements and price contingency. The ESMF for the project has already been disclosed on February 13, 2014 and is available on CSA website and World Bank InfoShop on February 14, 2014. As part of this component, parallel financing will be provided by DFID for a period of 3 years to fund an in-country statistician to serve as an advisor to DG CSA and support the work with the Donor Working Group (See Annex 6)13. This will be an international expert in statistical development for advisory support on matters relating to NSDS implementation. B. Project Financing 1. Grant Instrument 45. The proposed project will be financed from the Bank’s Statistics for Results Facility– Catalytic Fund 14 (SRF-CF). The Catalytic Fund grant is complementary to financing for statistical surveys and assistance under ongoing World Bank and donor-assisted programs. For example, the World Bank and other donor-supported PBS program has provided support for health sector household surveys since 2011. The proposed project provides resources under Component 2 to partner with ongoing statistical capacity development programs promoting coordination and enhancing impacts. 2. Project Cost and Financing 46. Estimated Program Cost: The SRF project is expected to cost US$10million, financed through a grant from the SRF-CF. Moreover, the GOE has signed bilateral financing agreements 13 Draft TOR for this advisor is available in project files. 14 The SFR is a global partnership initiative to scale up investments in statistical capacity. The SRF-CF (financed by the Netherlands government and DfID) is managed by the World Bank and provides grants to support countries that commit to the principles of the Catalytic Fund Charter. Grants from the Catalytic fund aim to make sustainable improvements in the production, availability and use of quality statistics, to increase capacity in policy formulation and decision-making for development. In each participating country, the grant aims to: - Promote system-wide approach in statistics at the country level; - Substantially increase resources for implementing country-owned National Statistical Plans; - Explicit link improvements in the statistical system to needs of national and sectoral monitoring frameworks, and promote an improved national dialogue and partnership between statistics users and producers; and - Deliver more efficient and effective aid and technical assistance for strengthening statistical systems and results measurement. 13 with UNFPA, UNDP, EU, and other organizations to support the implementation of NSDS and other related statistical development activities. A summary of the current estimated costs and sources of financing is provided in the tables below. Table 1: Summary of Allocations by Project Component US$ COMPONENT Million 1. ORGANIZATIONAL AND INFRASTRUCTURE CAPACITY 4.9 DEVELOPMENT IN THE NSS 1.1 Organizational strengthening 1.2 Physical Infrastructure 1.3 ICT Infrastructure., Systems and Tools 2. STATISTICAL DATA DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT 1.5 2.1 Business Statistics 2.2 Mining, Energy, Construction & Transport Sectors Statistics. 2.3 Agricultural Census and Statistics Support 2.4 Improving Coverage and Quality of the Annual Agricultural Sample Survey 2.5 Vital Statistics Support 3. STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY, STANDARDS AND DATA QUALITY 1.9 ASSURANCE AND INFORMATION DISSEMINATION 3.1 Data Quality Assurance Framework 3.2Information Dissemination 4. MONITORING AND EVALUATION 1.7 Grand Total 10.0 47. Retroactive Financing. All eligible expenditures that would be incurred on or after April 21, 2014 up to the date of the signing of the financing agreement, up to an aggregate amount not to exceed US$500,000 equivalent, would be eligible for retroactive financing. This retroactive financing is intended to finance the following activities: inter alia, (a) hiring of FM and procurement experts and for set up of project management office; (b) hiring of construction experts to meet the needs of the ESMF; and (c) hiring of consultant to prepare an updated user satisfaction index. 48. Status of NSDS Implementation: The implementation of the NSDS began in 2009. Over the past three years, the CSA conducted major surveys, which are included in the NSDS document. These include the Household Income and Expenditure Consumption Survey, the Welfare Monitoring Survey, and the Demographic and Health Survey. The CSA also regularly conducted the Annual Agricultural Sample Survey. In addition, the CSA implemented several project-based surveys and studies within the NSDS framework. On the physical and IT infrastructure front, the construction of the headquarters building in Addis Ababa and the networking of branch offices are in progress. The CSA has also acquired some GPS and CAPI machines that are being used for pilot activities in selected enumeration areas. 14 Table 2: Summary of Allocations by Six Component Themes of the NSDS NSDS STRATEGIC THEME NSDS NSDS NSDS Planned Gaps Actual US$ Mill. US$ US$ Mill. Mill. Theme 1: Statistical Law Passed 0.00 0.00 0.00 Theme 2: Data Quality Assessment Framework for Ethiopia (DQAF-E) 0.13 0.06 0.07 Theme 3: Enhancing Advocacy and Use of Statistics 0.04 0.04 0.00 Theme 4: Methodological Improvements and Statistical Modernization 72.65 58.40 14.25 Theme 5: Capacity Development in the NSS 7.11 4.19 2.92 Theme 6: Relationship to Monitoring and Evaluation PASDEP and other 0.61 0.61 0.00 Interventions Total 80.54 63.30 17.24 49. Table 2 presents a summary of the status of the NSDS budget by its six strategic themes. The NSDS planned for about US$ 53 Million. However, with the revision of the NSDS period by one year and revisions on selected budget items the amount that reflects the current situation in the NSS is US$ 80.53 Million. The Actual column in Table 2 is the sum of the amount spent for completed activities, the amount committed or earmarked for the activity by donors, and the amount that will come from the Government. The Gaps column is the difference between the Planned and the Actual. Therefore, the proposed SFR project is expected to narrow the budget gap by US$ 10 Million and its PDO is appropriately outlined to cater to this available funding to achieve measureable results. Much more, it is envisaged that the existence of the SRF program itself and the establishment of the National Partnership Group (NPG) for Ethiopia will be able to trigger additional funding from government and development partners, which would likely close the existing gap. GoE recognizes that funding gap needs to be filled through active engagement of donors and efforts that promote evidence based decision making in MDAs so that entities assign adequate resources and attention, thereby meeting the NSDS targets. GoE is also planning to initiate the NSDSII exercise so that resource mobilization effort could be boosted and implementation of current NSDS be expedited. It is also planning to disseminate the findings of NSDS mid-term review to highlight challenges to NSS stakeholders and policymakers. 50. Several donors are supporting statistical development in Ethiopia and the proposed project would complement and leverage these efforts through partnerships. Table 3 presents a summary of the ongoing donor supported efforts, which are broadly in line with the NSDS requirements and NSS upgrading needs over the medium term. 15 Table 3: Main Donor Supported Statistical Programs Supporting CSA Institution Project Objectives Financing Amount UNDP Support to Contribute to the capacity of US$2 Million Development Assistance Monitoring and institutions to deliver their mandates Group Monitoring and Evaluation System of in M&E of implemented GTP. Evaluation Pooled Fund PRSP and MDGs UNFPA Increased Generate and make accessible US$30 Million over Availability of disaggregated population data. five years Population Data FAO/European Support to Food Improve quality of some essential Euro 2 Million Commission Security Information food security related data through System adapted technology. Food security issues better understood through selected studies. World Bank and other Protection of Basic Capacity improvement of EDQAF US$ 2 Million development partners Services (PBS) unit to conduct PBS program M&E. (overall PBS funding Monitoring and Support Welfare Monitoring and is US$6.2 Million Evaluation Household Income Consumption over 5 years for Component Surveys related tasks) C. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design 51. Forward planning and stakeholder consultation is essential for addressing the challenges of the exploding demand for statistical information in the Country. National statistical agencies in developing countries typically tend to give low priority to access to aggregated and record-level statistical data beyond the immediate interest groups (e.g. health and education ministries). They also do not conduct regular consultation with NSS members and stakeholders to assess new data needs and quality concerns due to resource and other constraints. This project addresses these concerns and introduces design features that enhance statistical planning and data coverage through: (i) development and dissemination of micro-data access policies in consultation with NSS members and other stakeholders; (ii) upgrades to the CSA’s e- infrastructure (e.g. data center, disaster management system, web portal, storage, collection tools) to collect and disseminate data and survey results; (iii) the introduction of e-learning for dissemination of statistical quality standards and training on good practices and methodologies; and (iv) creation of a platform for users to provide feedback (at Central Headquarters and Branch office levels) on the performance of the NSS, which is especially useful in holding data producers accountable for delivering quality statistical products and services and for identifying new data needs. 52. Improvements in statistics should be closely linked to national priorities (e.g. monitoring of poverty, gender, and competitiveness) to ensure the success of projects. Strengthening the link between the statistical system and the GTP monitoring system will be a key goal, and the CSA team will work closely with Ministry of Finance and other concerned entities to promote databases to public and private users. Support for the development of next NSDS, vital statistics, national accounts, and stakeholder training under the SFR project would encourage coordination among NSS entities nationwide and promote success. 16 53. Adequate institutional capacity is essential for sustainable data collection, production and dissemination. Experience in developing countries indicates that improving organizational planning and structures, human resources, and logistical systems and infrastructure is a critical pre-requisite for good performance and requires attention over a medium- to long-term horizon. The CSA is in the process of modernizing its operations and systems to enhance data production capabilities. It is also trying to address staff turnover and other incentive system challenges. In order to improve institutional performance, the proposed project would train managerial, administrative and statistical staff, as well as build dignified and appropriate office space and transport facilities. Also, specialized skill-building and modern data collection IT tools would be funded for a more sustainable provision of products and services to users. D. Alternatives Considered and Reasons for Rejection 54. Smaller-scale interventions in specific statistical areas are inappropriate to address underlying institutional issues faced by the CSA, which is responsible for NSS coordination and quality assurance. In the past, DPs and Government attempts at building statistical capacity have been piecemeal and focused primarily on data collection exercises or training in specific subject matter areas (e.g. health, living conditions). Previous interventions have not been adequate to address the CSA’s underlying organizational and statistical development constraints affecting its performance. 55. Simultaneous capacity building support to all MDAs would be too ambitious. Simultaneous support to all MDAs has been rejected, as many MDAs (e.g. health and education) already have programs and statistical units that collect and compile their own statistical reports, obtained as a by-product of their administrative responsibilities. NSDS mid-review, GOE BPR and other assessments indicate that the CSA, which has the principle responsibilities of NSS coordination/quality assurance (since 2005) and data production and dissemination, requires scaled-up assistance to effectively fulfill its mandate. Strategic targeting of CSA by building its leadership and institutional quality over the medium term is expected to generate nationwide benefits. IV. IMPLEMENTATION A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 56. The CSA will be the project-implementing agency, and is a key agency responsible for the overall NSDS program, along with the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED) and the Statistical Council (SC). The CSA has prepared its draft project operational manual (OM) and project procurement plan for the next years. 57. Annual Work Plan. In order to better plan and advance implementation an annual planning exercise is to take place as part of implementation arrangements by the CSA, the main implementing agency of the project. The annual work plan review will help distil lessons and make adjustments in keeping with regional preferences. 17 58. National Partnership Group. A joint Government/DPs National Partnership Group (NPG) has been established, and will provide the national oversight for the implementation of the SFR project implementation in light of the existing NSDS coordination arrangements. The Bank has received a letter (jointly signed by the Director General CSA and the Development Partner Group representative) that supports the project and strengthens existing NSDS and project coordination arrangements (See Annex 6). 59. A CSA Project Implementation Unit (CSA PIU) will be established to manage the project. For Project implementation, the CSA has identified CSA staff and technical experts who will manage project implementation activities, plan and coordinate work programming, manage reporting and auditing activities, and ensure compliance with the disbursement and financial management and procurement procedures. The CSA PIU in Addis Ababa will report directly to the CSA Director General and will comprise of the Manager/Coordinators, statistical specialists, IT specialists, institutional development specialists, project M&E specialist, Construction specialists/architects, procurement specialist, and financial management specialist. The procurement and financial management experts and the stakeholder communication/M&E analyst will be full time during the life of the project, while other experts will be full time or part time depending upon the project schedule and work plan needs. Since four Branch offices will be constructed, CSA will set up PIU local offices at these locations as per the structure and staffing provided in the operational manual and the ESMF to meet all stipulated requirements and needs. HQ level PIU will ensure that quarterly progress reports are made available to relevant authorities both within Ethiopia and at the World Bank. To ensure sustainability of this project coordination arrangement, most PIU responsibilities will be mainstreamed into the CSA (CSA- DG/GSA) during the second half of project implementation. B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation 60. Results framework: The key monitoring indicators for the project are consistent with Ethiopia’s NSDS program logical framework and meet the needs of the CSA, MOFED, Statistical Council and the National Partnership Group. (See Annex 1). 61. Intermediate results indicators. These will include: (a) full and timely implementation of the planned surveys and capacity building (organizational and infrastructure) programs; (b) level of user satisfaction with statistical products and information services of the CSA; (c) Key CSA and select MDA statisticians and staff are equipped with good professional and analytical capacity. The CSA will regularly monitor the PDO level and intermediate results indicators in accordance with the results framework specified in Annex 1. C. Sustainability 62. Budgetary allocation and cost recovery: International experience indicates that developing country agencies producing official statistics have limited revenue generation opportunities, as statistics are typically considered public goods and expectations are that data should be provided free through the internet or another medium. Therefore, sustainability of the proposed project depends critically on the GOE’s sustained commitment to strengthening the CSA as a key player of the NSS, including support for institutional reform, infrastructure 18 upgrades and the provision of budgetary support beyond the project implementation period 15. Efforts will, however, be made under the project to explore new cost recovery options and mechanisms in the light of international experiences. 63. GOE commitment to burgeoning demand for statistics. The GOE has demonstrated its commitment to strengthening the capacity of the CSA and other NSS entities by approving the NSDS in 2010 for improvement of statistical capacity in the country. It has demonstrated this priority through a continued increase in CSA’s budget allocation over the last years, including for capital expenditure (e.g. for the construction of a new CSA headquarter office building expected to be operational in early 2014). Demand from the government, DPs, civil society, and other stakeholders for statistical data is growing rapidly-both for policy/investment development and for impact measurement (e.g. for GTP monitoring). The project is expected to fill these information demands/gaps. The dialogue between users and producers of data in NSS, education of citizens and other stakeholders on importance of statistics and development of the next NSDS will be supported by the Project and is expected to translate to sustained budgetary support for the CSA and NSS from the GOE and development partners. V. KEY RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES 64. Implementation Capacity: The overall risk rating is Substantial for implementation. There are two main risks. First, since the CSA was reestablished in 2005, its limited experience in coordination and quality assurance of other MDAs is a risk. This would be addressed through the provision of technical experts, funding of planning and coordination outreach to stakeholders (e.g. via annual statistical conferences on quality, in partnership with economists and statistical associations), and support for south-south knowledge visits to good practice locations for participating MDAs, key policy makers and stakeholders, along with CSA officials. Second, The capacity of the CSA management to carry out activities identified in SFR Project also poses a risk. This risk will be mitigated by close monitoring and follow-up by the Bank, the organization of technical visits for CSA managers to good practice locations to gain hands-on experience, and the invitation of experienced managers of national statistical systems who are engaged with modernization efforts in their own countries through just-in-time visits. (See attached ORAF in Annex 4 for details and mitigation measures). 15 The CSA budget over the last years has increased from about US$3 million in 2002 to 9 in 2012, mainly in response to the increased demand for statistical data and information. 19 Risk Rating Summary Table Risk Category Rating Project Stakeholder Risks - Stakeholder Risk Moderate Implementing Agency (IA) Risks (including Fiduciary Risks) - Capacity Substantial - Governance Moderate Project Risks - Design High - Social and Environmental High - Program and Donor Moderate - Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability Moderate Overall Risk - Implementation Risk Substantial VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Economic and Financial Analyses 65. Economic Analysis: The economic benefits from the project will derive from better statistical data, better decisions and better governance. After reviewing alternative solutions, the counterparts and the Bank team believe that this is the least cost solution to achieve the project objective. First, improvements in the efficiency of statistical operations will result in broader coverage and higher-quality data produced by the CSA and others. Second, better data will enhance the potential for evidence-based decision making at policy, program and project levels. This is expected to reduce the negative consequences of poor decisions made on the basis of missing or inaccurate data. Third, more accessible data will promote better monitoring of the results of public policies (e.g. Growth and Transformation Plan). As the collection of statistics is considered a public service, the nature of the project output does not lend itself to a conventional economic cost-benefit analysis. A brief sketch of the benefits of good quality statistical information is provided in Annex 9. 66. Financial analysis: The project is not amenable to financial analysis because national statistical agencies have very limited opportunities to recover the costs of data collection and analysis. National statistics are generally considered a public good, and are generally financed from government revenue. Therefore, only marginal financial returns are expected from this project. However, the program outcomes are expected to promote improved allocation of resources by enhancing the monitoring of the impact of government spending by providing more accurate information on economic activities to the public at large. In addition, the project is expected to be fiscally sustainable, since the government has agreed to continue increasing its annual resource allocation to CSA’s statistical activities. The financing approach adopted is cost effective, given that the CSA coordinates its work with development partners on a regular basis. The proposed project would promote this dialogue and collaboration further, especially since the work plan for the project has been developed with active DP engagement, which will continue during its implementation. 20 67. Governance and institutional accountability: The project is expected to contribute to improved governance and accountability in Ethiopia. It will further strengthen the foundation for openness, transparency and efficiency in public planning and resource allocation by placing key available statistics on the CSA open data portal and by informing NSS members. It will also help promote a culture of evidence-based decision making, which will increase economic effectiveness and efficiency in agriculture, business, government, gender and the household sector. B. Technical 68. Technical design: The technical design of the project is based on a detailed institutional analysis of Ethiopia’s Central Statistical Agency and the related entities comprising the national statistical system (see Annex 6 for details). The proposed developments in the management of statistical agencies, review of business and human resource processes, statistical infrastructure, statistical operations and choice of technology are appropriate to the Recipient’s needs and capabilities, as well as international good practices and standards. Technical experts have reviewed the technical specifications for small tasks (e.g. for CSA branch offices) and equipment, including computing and communications equipment. They have also reviewed the business process reengineering plans and human resource training needs. These technical specialists will continue to support the project to ensure timely completion of IT, physical infrastructure and capacity improvement tasks, and their successful implementation to support statistical data production and dissemination. C. Financial management 69. Financial management: The financial management (FM) assessment for the CSA was conducted in July 2013 to determine the adequacy of its financial management systems and related capacity to implement the project. The financial management assessment was carried out in accordance with the Financial Management Manual for World Bank-Financed Investment Operations issued by the Financial Management Sector Board that became effective on March 1, 2010. On the basis of the assessment, the residual FM risk is Substantial. Action plans that encompass the mitigation measures for the risks and weaknesses are prepared and agreed. The Bank team will continually support the CSA during project implementation and offer refresher courses to CSA FM staff as needed. 70. The project will prepare and submit quarterly unaudited Interim Financial reports (IFRs). Disbursements will be made on traditional based disbursement method using SOEs the details of which will be stated in the Disbursement letter. All disbursement methods are allowed for the project (advance, reimbursements, direct payment and special commitment). For the advance method, the project will open a segregated USD Designated Account. In addition, local currency accounts at federal level and at branches will be opened as appropriate for the project purposes. 71. The project in coordination with Office of Federal Audit General (OFAG) is required to have the project auditor selected within 3 months of effectiveness and the project will have annual audit conducted. The project will then submit project audited financial statements to the Bank in a form and content satisfactory to the Bank. . 21 72. FM-related covenants include maintaining satisfactory financial management system throughout the life of the project, submission of IFRs of the project for each fiscal quarter within 45 days of the end of the quarter; and submission of annual audited financial statements and audit report including the management letter, within 6 months of the end of each fiscal year. 73. Based on the assessment conducted, it is concluded that the FM arrangements meet the Bank’s minimum requirements for project FM as per OP/BP 10. It is adequate to provide, with reasonable assurance, accurate and timely information on the status of the project required by the Bank. The detail assessment/FM arrangements are annexed under annex 8. D. Procurement 74. The overall procurement risk rating for the project is High. Procurement under the project would be carried out in accordance with: (i) "Guidelines: Procurement of Goods, Works, and non-Consulting Services Under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers" dated January 2011; (ii) "Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants Under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers" dated January 2011; (iii) “Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants” dated October 15, 2006; (iv) introduction of Exceptions to National Competitive Bidding Procedures; and (v) the provisions stipulated in the Legal Agreements. A Procurement Plan acceptable to the Bank was agreed during Grant Negotiations. For each contract to be financed by the Grant, the different procurement methods or consultant selection methods, the need for prequalification, estimated costs, prior review requirements, and time frame was agreed between the Beneficiary and IDA/WB task team in the Procurement Plan. 75. The Procurement Plan would be updated at least annually or as required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. As part of the project preparation, the World Bank has undertaken a procurement risk assessment of the project-implementing agency, the CSA. The agency has no prior works procurement and contract management experience. Given that the project will involve works procurement and contract management, this lack of experience, combined with other limitations, makes the procurement risk of the project high. To mitigate the identified risks, it is recommended to recruit one qualified procurement specialist for the project who will be member of the PIU that will be established for the specific purpose of this project implementation. It is also recommended to recruit two technical experts/engineers to oversee the design and construction supervision activities of the branch office buildings as well as the renovation works. The procurement specialist should be recruited and deployed before the project is made effective. E. Social 76. Participation in design and preparation of the CSA modernization plans: The project has been designed with participation and feedback from CSA staff, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development staff, data producers and users from federal government, the judiciary, regional governments, academia, development partners, and PARIS21 experts, among others. 22 77. The CSA plans were discussed at a stakeholders workshop held in Addis Ababa in May 2012, consultations with DPs, field visits to CSA branch offices, and meetings with regional/local stakeholders in May 2013. Recommendations made during these workshops and consultations were included in the project design16. For example, several regional governments have agreed to provide land (free of charge) to build modern branch offices for the CSA to improve its operations. The CSA and other DPs also provided comments, and the final document reflects their input. The National Partnership Group engaged in the statistical development of Ethiopia has also endorsed the project through their letter No 2-5/c33 September 13, 2012 (available in the project files). Also, the CSA modernization plan outline and reports on field visits to CSA Branch Offices are available in the project files. Participation in monitoring of statistics for development: The project will continue to adopt the participatory and consultative approach to project design, and strengthen the value of statistics used to monitor GTP and MDGs, by requiring disclosure of information developed under the project and placement of these statistics on the CSA open data portal. The project will actively encourage national statistical system institutions, as well as public and private sector entities (e.g. civil society), to articulate their demands for statistics through the CSA’s dissemination and awareness-building efforts. It is expected that all stakeholders, both local and international, will be able to access the key information they need to monitor and evaluate GTP and public sector performance. The project plans to support knowledge sharing of international good practices on data collection (e.g. use of IT tools), and to raise awareness among national statistical system stakeholders to enhance the CSA’s leadership role in quality enhancement and sector coordination. 78. Improved access to statistical information at central, regional and local levels, and CSA leadership and coverage: Being a geographically large Federal state, the CSA currently has 25 Branch Offices which play a key role in national data collection and handle other CSA operational responsibilities. Capacity building under the project will help these Branch Offices play a more effective role in providing statistical data for regional planning and local service delivery. In the future, rehabilitation and construction of select CSA Branch office facilities, along with modern IT tools and systems, would also enhance their operational quality and data management capabilities. Infrastructure upgrades, combined with skills training of staff and planning assistance, would permit organizational changes to help expand the role of Branch offices toward data dissemination and outreach to national statistical system stakeholders. F. Environment (including safeguards) 79. Environmental Category Rating: The proposed project is rated Category B for environmental purposes. The project will entail the construction and rehabilitation of select CSA offices and, in this respect, will trigger World Bank safeguard policy OP/BP 4.01 on Environmental Assessment (EA). Only a few (about four) CSA branch offices will be constructed, and they will have small office space requirements (e.g. for about 15 professionals and 70 other staff members) and as such their environmental impacts are likely to be limited. An indicative list of the branch offices to be constructed with project resources, including criteria for 16 For example, the ESMF for the project is disclosed on CSA website -- http://www.csa.gov.et/index.php/2013-02-20-13-43- 35/2013-05-21-08-55-43. 23 their final selection, is provided in the Annex 2 on project description. To ensure the minimization or elimination of any negative impacts, the CSA has prepared an Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF). The revised ESMF was disclosed to the country on the CSA website on February 13, 2014 http://www.csa.gov.et/index.php/2013-02-20-13-43-35/2013- 05-21-08-55-43 and at the World Bank InfoShop on February 14, 2014, (http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/docsearch?query=E4452 . The proposed land for construction of branch offices belongs to the government and will not displace people or affect their communal use of the land. 80. The disclosed ESMF document defines the management procedures that would allow the proposed Statistics for Results (SFR) project to “avoid, mitigate, or minimize adverse environmental and social impacts” of supported activities. It was prepared in accordance with definitions provided in the World Bank Operational Manual and in relation to the triggered operational policy on Environmental Assessment (OP 4.01). The other operational policies included in the World Bank safeguards procedures were not triggered by the SFR project. As the environmental and social impacts of the proposed project activities are not significant, the SFR project is potentially category “B”. 81. In addition, the Recipient will prepare the necessary environment impact assessment, along with detailed office building designs, for the first CSA branch office building that would be constructed once the location is selected, all of which will be cleared by the Bank prior to the start of construction. 82. Ethiopia has a comprehensive legal framework for the management of the environment. The Constitution adopted by Ethiopia in 1995 provides the guiding principles for environmental protection and management. The concepts of sustainable development and environmental rights are enshrined in Articles 43, 44 and 92 of the Constitution of GOE. The Environmental Policy of Ethiopia was approved by the Council of Ministers in April 1997. It has 10 sectoral and 10 cross- sectoral components, one of which addresses “Human Settlements, Urban Environment and Environmental Health”, and was based on the findings and recommendations of the National Conservation Strategy of Ethiopia. Environmental Impact Assessment Proclamation No. 299/2000 contains provisions designed to ensure sustainable development. Proclamation 299/2000 makes an environmental impact assessment mandatory for development projects, policies, plans and programs. 83. The proposed project will ensure that there is adequate capacity within the CSA to implement the ESMF. It will also ensure that the CSA project unit in charge of construction and monitoring project implementation is appropriately financed, in order to support the mainstreaming of the environment in the organizational planning processes of the CSA. About US$200,000 have been allocated under the project for ESMF implementation. 84. Overall, the project should have a positive policy impact on the environment through its support for the generation of environmental and governmental statistics that could be used to improve the country’s environmental planning and management policies. 24 Safeguard policies Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01) [X] [] Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) [] [X] Pest Management (OP 4.09) [] [X] Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) [] [X] Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11) [] [X] Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) [] [X] Forests (OP/BP 4.36) [] [X] Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) [] [X] Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50) [] [X] Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP 7.60)* [] [X] * By supporting the proposed project, the Bank does not intend to prejudice the final determination of the parties' claims on the disputed areas 25 Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring Ethiopia Statistics for Results Facility Project Project Development Objective (PDO): The objective of the Project is to enhance the capacity of the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) at the organizational, human, and physical levels in order to produce and disseminate reliable, accessible, and timely statistics. Cumulative Target Values** Responsibility PDO Level Results Core Unit of Measure Baseline Frequency Data Source/ for Data Indicators* June 30 2015 June 30 2016 June 30 2017 Methodology Collection Direct Project Direct Project 0 Targets to be determined with TBD TBD Annual Project activity CSA and key Beneficiaries (number), of Beneficiaries CSA in the formulation of the records and MDAs which female (%) Female 0% project work plans reports Indicator One: Data 1) Usage of EDQAF used Customized EDQAF manual 20% of key 50% of key Annual Metadata as CSA and key Quality: The CSA applies recently drafted MDAs (incl. MDAs (incl. published on MDAs internationally-accepted prepared MOFED, MOFED, CSA) CSA and MDAs statistical techniques and EDQAF CSA adopts EDQAF manual CSA) manual manual website. ICT applications in the manual and all granting of survey collection, compilation and authorization visas to MDAs authenticity verification of conditional to usage of this data, and carries out key manual pilot MDAs and validation 2) ICT data 0% Assessment of pilot use of Use in one Expanded use. Annual CSA and MDA CSA and key for data sources and collection tools ICT tools for data collection nationwide reports. MDAs. statistical products. used survey Indicator Two: Execution rate 0% 30% 50% 75% Annual CSA Release Head of CSA. Timeliness: Timeliness and of annual Calendar. increased frequency of statistical publication for key release calendar Annual Review statistics in line with activities Reports national standards as agreed upon by CSA and MDAs. Indicator Three: Data Completeness of User-friendly Modernized website with NADA NADA further - - Head of CSA, Access: portal, including website in user-friendly functionalities initiated expanded Head of IT Data readily available to NADA. place. for greater dissemination Department and users through Open Data (including high storage Dissemination Portal and eCSA Program eCSA 0% capacity of data center) eCSA fully unit on Wheels. operational on launched. eCSA operational pilot basis initiated eCSA educational program bus designed and tested. 26 INTERMEDIATE RESULTS Intermediate Result (Component One): Organizational Strengthening and Infrastructure Development in NSS Intermediate Result Number of To be Recommendations of Training 20% of 50% of Annual Training Needs CSA Head and Indicator One: Full and staff from determined Needs Assessment approved recommendati recommendatio Assessment key MDAs timely implementation of CSA and based on the by the CSA/WB and MOU on ons for 2014 ns for 2015 Report organizational training MDAs trained on-going the use of Woreda Net signed implemented implemented program measured by the annually Needs with MOCS number of staff from CSA Assessment Integrated Annual headquarters, branch Study in CSA Training Plans offices and the NSS and MDAs trained annually in: with 50/50 Progress reports  Organizational emphasis on Change and Strategic headquarter Planning and branch offices by  Management and IT June 30, 2015  Statistical subject matters Intermediate Result Number of Initial designs Two branch offices designed Design Four new Bi-annual Project progress CSA Head, PIU Indicator Two: Number of branch offices available and constructed replicated to branch office reports and concerned branch offices designed, constructed three buildings branch office constructed and in use within budget additional operational heads with modern tools, locations transport and work methods Intermediate Result Data center Zero Video conferencing room Video Video As required Project progress CSA Head and Indicator Three: IT Data and video established in headquarter conferencing conferencing reports PIU Center and Video equipment building conducted used for Conferencing Operational installed locally training Intermediate Result Extent to Basic Pilot designed based on Test e-survey Use of ICT As required Project progress CSA Head, IT Indicator Four: Timely which ICT understanding international knowledge done enhanced reports. Director, implementation of ICT data of modern sharing visits for CSA and Knowledge concerned branch pilots for data collection collection data NSS stakeholders sharing visit office heads and (e.g. using iPADs) tools and collection reports PIU software used tools 27 Intermediate Result (Component Two): Statistical Data Development and Management Intermediate Result Project 0 Business statistics and other Agriculture Mining, energy, - - CSA and key Indicator One: performance survey support completed census transport and MDA Full and timely support, construction implementation of surveys agriculture instruments and statistical tasks sample design identified in the project survey; and completed work plans for FY13-17, vital statistics including those related to completed business statistics; mining, energy, transport and construction; agriculture census support, agriculture sample survey; and vital statistics. Intermediate Result (Component Three Sub-Component 3.1): Statistical Methodology, Standards and Data Quality Assurance Intermediate Result Number of To be Training Needs assessment 50% of 70% of Annual Training needs CSA Head and Indicator One: Number of staff from CSA determined recommendations approved recommendati recommendation assessment and NSS, MDAs CSA and NSS staff trained and MDAs based on the by the ons for 2014 s for 2015 progress reports in specialized quality selected and on-going CSA/NSS/WB/concerned DPs implemented implemented assurance topics including trained Needs EDQAF, survey methods, annually Assessment poverty mapping Study in techniques, gender CSA and analysis of household MDAs by surveys. June 30, 2015 Intermediate Result Space for the No space Specialized training program Pilot quality Training Annual Progress reports CSA Head and Indicator Two: CSA provision of available designed assurance program management Training Center set up for training courses implemented team, and PIU NSS rehabilitated offered regularly and equipped with audio visual equipment 28 Intermediate Result (Component Three Sub-component 3.2): Information Dissemination and User Services Intermediate Result User Not Baseline User Satisfaction - Improvement - User Satisfaction NSS, DPs and Indicator One: Level of Satisfaction available Index based on User Survey Index other stakeholder users satisfied with Index (baseline Satisfaction feedback and statistical products and survey will Index in Focus Group services of the CSA be done by 2013/14 Survey June 30, 2015) Intermediate Result eCSA program Zero Design of eCSA bus and As required User satisfaction CSA Head, Indicator Two: Launch of statistical education materials and focus group management team eCSA mobile education for user outreach survey and PIU unit on wheels for user outreach Intermediate Result indicator Three: Releasing major statistical Publication of Target to be As required CSA Release publications as per CSA major agreed with calendar. CSA Head and release calendar statistical CSA by June management reports in 30, 2015 departments elegant format and venues Statistical Information and Data access Draft Data Access Policy and In progress Final Data As required CSA Statistical CSA Head and Microdata Access Policy Policy and Dissemination Framework Access Policy Release calendar. management and Dissemination Dissemination available and and departments Framework in place for Framework published on CSA website Dissemination CSA headquarter and Framework Annual Review branch offices. available and Reports implemented - Data center with adequate User- User Modernized website with Assessment of 70% of - - CSA Head, head server capacity established friendliness of friendly user-friendly functionalities user- assessment of IT department, in headquarters CSA website website in for greater dissemination friendliness of recommendation and PIU design & place launched. website s fully storage functionalities Implemented capacity and adequacy of storage capacity completed Open Data Portal in use Data portal tool User Technological and - - - - CSA Head, IT friendly methodological upgrades Director, other website in done and launched department heads 29 place and concerned branch offices Intermediate Result (Component Four): Monitoring and Evaluation Intermediate Result Quality and Zero Audit Report, FY14/15 Audit report, Audit reports, CSA Head, Indicator One: timeliness of FY15/16 FY 17/18 Annual Finance Reports Director of IDA approved Audit annual audit Finance and Report submitted six reports Administration, months after the end of and PIU every FY IDA approved Project Quality and Zero ESMF Implementation ESMF ESMF Bi-annual Implementation CSA Head and M&E Report (complete timeliness of Progress Report FY14/15 Implementati Implementation Reports PIU with ESMF ESMF on Progress Progress Report implementation status and implementati Report FYs 16/17 and related DP and NSS tasks) on reports FY15/16 17/18 submitted two months after the end of every 6 month period CSA project coordination Quality and PIU to be set Adequate number and skills Adequate Adequate Continuous Progress reports CSA Head and team and PIU established timeliness in up before of staff and control systems in number and number and management team decision implementation place skills of staff skills of staff making and and control and control project systems in systems in place coordination place Support for NSDS2 Support for Zero Provision of technical experts Provision of Provision of Continuous Progress reports CSA and NSS development stakeholder and consultation support technical technical experts stakeholders engagement experts and and consultation and consultation support advocacy to support address funding gap 30 Annex 2: Detailed Project Description and Project Costs Ethiopia Statistics for Results Facility Project 1. The project supports part of the overall Government of Ethiopia’s (GoE) program—the National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS)—which was approved by the Government in 2009 and covers the period 2009/10 – 2013/14.The Government, in close consultation with Development Partners and National Statistical System (NSS) stakeholders, developed the NSDS. The outlined mission of the NSDS is “to produce and disseminate nationally coordinated, timely, and good-quality statistical data for planning, monitoring and evaluation, for socio-economic analysis, research and policy formulations”. 2. The NSDS covers statistical development in the entire National Statistical System (NSS) and has six interconnected strategic themes:  Implementation of the statistics law which mainly pertains to the coordination of the NSS and establishment of appropriate organizational units and standards, among other issues;  Development of data quality procedures that relates to the development of data quality assessment framework (DQAF) with all its elements, coordinated by the CSA for the NSS;  Enhancement of advocacy and use of statistics by promotion of a common website for the NSS and training of stakeholders;  Methodological improvements and statistical modernization, relating to identification and filling of data gaps and reduction of duplication of surveys;  Capacity development in the NSS to meet the increased demand for statistics, which involves investments that improve organizational arrangements, enhance training and availability of skilled staff, encourage staff retention and reduce turnover, leverage ICT for quick data capture and dissemination, provide additional space, furniture and appropriate facilities for a conducive work environment and efficient operations;  Relating the NSDS to the Monitoring and Evaluation of the Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) and other interventions such as Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). 3. In light of the above NSDS framework, progress with NSDS implementation and the CSA’s institutional assessments, the proposed SFR project has been designed through a consultative and participatory process to upgrade Ethiopia’s statistical capabilities. The main aim of the proposed project is to assist in the production and dissemination of reliable and timely statistics in Ethiopia. This will be achieved through modernization of the CSA’s organizational and data development capabilities and infrastructure at its headquarters and select branch offices, as well as through improvement of the data management capabilities of key MDAs in the NSS. 31 Project Components 4. The project has four components described ahead. The project components are designed to support the implementation of activities drawn from these strategic themes of the NSDS, namely: (a) enhancing advocacy and use of statistics; (b) methodological improvements and statistical modernization; and (c) capacity building (organization and infrastructure) in the NSS. The project’s design takes into account the findings of the NSDS mid-term review and plans to support development of the NSDSII (2015-2018). These components are briefly described below. 5. Component 1: Organizational and Infrastructure Capacity Development in the NSS (US$ 4.9 Million): Support to improve organizational performance, staff productivity, and data accessibility by strengthening planning and physical infrastructure at the CSA. 6. The component aims to improve organizational performance, staff productivity and data accessibility by strengthening planning, training and physical infrastructure at the CSA as per the findings of NSDS mid-term review, CSA-BPR, CSA Space Audit and other reviews. 7. Sub-Component 1.1. Organizational Strengthening: This sub-component aims at enhancing institutional management and logistical capacity at the CSA. The project will, therefore, support the following activities: (i) strategic planning and visioning exercises for the introduction of improved management and administration systems in the CSA, and provide technical assistance to strengthen the national account statistics ; (ii) upgrade of office space at the headquarters to conduct training for CSA and NSS staff and provision of furniture and equipment in headquarters ; (iii) executive development training, peer-to-peer learning and knowledge sharing with sister institutions for CSA and NSS stakeholder staff. 8. Sub-Component 1.2. Physical Infrastructure: This sub-component aims at enhancing staff productivity in the CSA by improving working conditions. The project will, therefore, support: (i) construction and furnishing of 4 of the 25 branch office buildings that the CSA has planned to build in the next few years to introduce new work methods, organizational design and IT systems . Potential locations for branch office construction include Ambo, Hawassa, Mekele, and Bahir Dar. Selection criteria and other requirements, including sequencing, have been outlined in the ESMF, which was disclosed on the CSA website and Bank InfoShop on June 4 and June 7, 2013 respectively. Model office designs have been prepared and are available in project files 9. Sub-Component 1.3. ICT Infrastructure, Systems and Tools for Data Production and Management: The objective of this sub-component is to modernize data collection, data entry, data storage, data analysis and dissemination capacity in the CSA. This will be accomplished through provision of a data-center, video conferencing equipment and infrastructure, and the latest survey technology and institutional management tools. The project will, therefore, finance (i) procurement and installation of data center and video conferencing infrastructure ; (ii) procurement of computers, laptops, tablets, iPads, Notes, and relevant hardware and software accessories , and (iii) training activities for the use of modern technologies (e.g. GPS, eCartography, eMapping, eSurveying, Infographics), computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI), and computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) and other data collection, analysis 32 and dissemination techniques and applications. The ICT sub-component would provide technological interface and support for the implementation of Component 2, which is aimed at enhanced data production; Component 3, which is aimed at data quality assurance; and open data dissemination (see below). 10. Activities in Component 1 are in close alignment with other ongoing capacity development initiatives in the area of ICT in support for the CSA’s work in collaboration with World Bank and other development partners. According to the NSDS mid-term review, support for organizational strengthening and infrastructure upgrading are considered critical for sustainable capacity improvement of the CSA and the overall NSS development. Partial building infrastructure needs are being addressed under this component (i.e., construction of 4 out of 25 planned offices nationwide), it may be useful for the CSA to explore other financing options to fund additional facilities once this project is sufficiently advanced, the model CSA is constructed and fully operational, and SFR Project implementation is rated satisfactory or higher. 11. Component 2: Statistical Data Development and Management (US$ 1.5 million): Support to strengthen the quality of statistical data production, compilation, and validation, including preparatory activities and technical assistance to help undertake selected NSDS priority surveys 12. This component will support activities to strengthen the quality of data produced, following internationally-accepted standards and methodologies in data collection, compilation, and validation. It will also support some preparatory activities, including sampling frame development, training, workshops, purchase and piloting of modern tools, and other technical assistance and logistical vehicles to help undertake some of the agreed-upon NSDS priority surveys. Data development activities would potentially include following support areas, inter alia: 13. Sub-Component 2.1. Development of Business Statistics: This sub-component aims to strengthen the CSA’s statistical capacity in the area of business statistics, which combines various sectoral sources from relevant national and regional agencies. The project could, therefore, finance: (i) the design of a comprehensive business register that integrates data sources; (ii) the pilot computerization of the register and development of mechanisms to remove duplicates; (iii) the development of bridge tables to reclassify the register entries to the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC); and (iv) the set-up of a system that regularly updates the business register and caters to changes in the status of the business entity. 14. Sub-Component 2.2. Development of Mining, Energy, Construction and Transport Sector Statistics: The objective of this sub-component is to narrow the gap in data needed for national accounts. The project could, therefore, finance: (i) design of survey instruments (e.g. sampling frames, questionnaires, manuals etc.) to help consolidate and reveal data gaps in national accounts; and (ii) training of ministry statistical staff and officials; 15. Sub-Component 2.3. Support for Planning and Development of the Next Agricultural Census: The sub-component aims to support the preparatory activities of the next agricultural census 2014-2015. The component could, therefore, finance: (i) preparatory planning workshops for the next Agriculture census; (ii) design of survey instruments (e.g. sampling frames, 33 questionnaires, manuals, etc.); (iii) piloting of new methods for data collection; and (iv) research studies on “standard and non-standard” units in estimation of area and production, among other areas. 16. Sub-Component 2.4. Improving Coverage and Quality of the Annual Agricultural Sample Survey (AGSS): This sub-component aims to develop and test a survey methodology to expand the coverage of AGSS in pastoral areas (Afar and Somalie regions). The sub-component could, therefore, finance: (i) piloting of new methods in selected pastoral areas; (ii) implementation of CAPI in selected AGSS enumeration areas; and (iii) supporting field staff training. 17. Sub-Component 2.5. Planning and Compilation of Vital Statistics: This sub-component aims at laying the foundation for long-term development of vital registration systems in the regions, as outlined in the recently-approved Vital Statistics Law (No.). The NSDS has already made plans for a review and implementation of the system by the CSA in collaboration with regional governments. This component could, therefore, finance technical assistance to the relevant government agency in areas of instrument design and building CSA’s vital statistics data management and analytical capacity. 18. The activities in Component 2 are in close alignment with NSDS, GTP and Vital Statistics Law priorities. In order to introduce flexibility in project design, efforts will be made under this component to partner with other institutions and agencies when the latest survey tools are tested and results shared to promote the potential scale-up of data production pilots (e.g. on vital statistics and use of ICT tools for poverty/other surveys). 19. Component 3: Statistical Methodology, Standards and Data Quality Assurance and Information Dissemination (US$ 1.9 Million): Support to promote, sensitize and implement the data quality assurance framework standard (“DQAF-E”) and support improvements in services for users, including dissemination of regular statistical publications to promote statistical education among citizens and non-governmental organizations 20. This component has two sub-components to promote methodologies and open data dissemination as follows: 21. Sub-Component 3.1. Statistical Methodology, Standards and Data Quality Assurance. This aims to promote, sensitize and implement the Data Quality Assurance Framework Standard (DQAF-E) prepared by the CSA for the NSS. The component will, therefore, finance: (i) educational and outreach materials on QAS and training and sensitization of CSA staff and NSS stakeholders at the CSA training center to be set up under the project ; (ii) organizing “specialized” short- and long-term educational statistical courses and study visits for CSA and partner MDAs staff on select data quality assurance topics (e.g. survey methods, poverty mapping techniques, gender analysis of household surveys, data production priorities); (iii) providing assistance to Household Consumption & Expenditure Survey (HCES) and Welfare & Monitoring Survey (WMS); and (iv) providing technical assistance to improve quality of poverty mapping and gender statistics and analysis. The CSA is receiving complementary resources from the World Bank-supported Protection of Basic Services (PBS) project for promoting quality standards in select sectors. 34 22. Sub-Component 3.2. Information Dissemination: This aims to support improvements in services for users, including dissemination of regular statistical publications as per the release calendar produced by both the CSA and its key MDAs, and to promote statistical education of citizens and NGOs. The component will, therefore, finance: (i) stakeholder expectation analysis (including user satisfaction index) training and communication support (e.g. via web, media, radio); (ii) upgrades to the CSA library and open web portal, which will enable civil society, NGOs, researchers, and the private sector to access the CSA and NSS data for policy making, investment decisions or research purposes; (iii) publication of flagship statistical reports and documents produced by the CSA to build the CSA brand; and (iv) the launch of the eCSA mobile education office by identifying and training appropriate staff, offering adequate per diems, and procuring a vehicle (air-conditioned bus or similar transport) equipped with multi- media and ICT tools, as well as relevant statistical education materials and publications, for visits to educational institutions, libraries, municipalities, Woredas and other locations. This could help enhance the CSA’s leadership in the NSS and promote the importance of statistics in national and regional development. This could be undertaken as a combined effort of the CSA, MOFED, Statistical Council and regional governments, and other actors. 23. Component 4. Monitoring and Evaluation (US$ 1.7 Million): Provide support to strength the monitoring and evaluation capabilities of the CSA with respect to the NSDS and the proposed Project’s coordination and fiduciary requirements. 24. This component aims to strengthen the monitoring and evaluation capabilities of the CSA with respect to the NSDS and the proposed Project’s coordination and fiduciary requirements, including ESMF implementation. It will (i) finance consultations for the development of the next NSDSII (US$ 0.1 million), (ii) provide technical assistance to strengthen the national account statistics; finance also M&E of GTP and GTP2 estimated at US$0.3 million. The component will also support SFR project management activities, including Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) implementation requirements and price contingency. The ESMF for the project has already been disclosed and is available on CSA website and World Bank InfoShop. As part of this component, parallel financing will be provided by DFID for a period of 3 years to fund an in-country statistician to serve as an advisor to DG CSA and support the work with the Donor Working Group (see Annex 10). This will be an international expert in statistical development for advisory support on matters relating to NSDS implementation. 35 Annex 3: Implementation Arrangements Ethiopia Statistics for Results Project 1. Project institutional and implementation arrangements i. Project administration mechanisms 1. Since the CSA is responsible for the overall NSDS program coordination along with MOFED and the Statistical Council, it will be the proposed project’s implementation agency. 2. The management of the proposed project will be undertaken by core CSA staff under the overall responsibility of the Director General. A Project Implementation Unit (PIU) will be set up to support CSA DG in project management. Technical, procurement, financial management, and M&E staff will be hired to assist the CSA and work with senior CSA managers in the areas of strategic and operational planning, project management, and reporting to the Steering Committee. 3. Annual Work Plan. Annual Work Plan (AWP) will be prepared by CSA and submitted to the World Bank for approval and would be the basis for annual implementation of tasks and outlining of priorities, especially those that are related to data production and dissemination. AWP will provide project with flexibility to incorporate lessons and make mid-course adjustments if needed. 4. Steering Committee/National Partnership Group. A joint Government/DPs Steering Committee/National Partnership Group (SC/NPG) has been established, and will provide the national guidance and oversight for the implementation of the SFR project. 5. PIU set up and reporting. The PIU will report directly to the Director General and will comprise of the PIU Coordinator, IT specialist, a number of technical staff (including M&E and construction specialists), a procurement specialist, and a financial management specialist to work on management and coordination of the SFR project at Addis Ababa Headquarters and at the locations where Branch office buildings will be constructed. At locations where construction will take place, a fulltime PIU office will be set up to meet ESMF needs and supervise project implementation activities on a full-time basis. It will ensure that quarterly progress reports are made available to all concerned. To ensure the sustainability of this coordination arrangement, PIU responsibilities will be mainstreamed into the CSA (under one of the Deputy Director Generals of the CSA) during the later period of the project implementation. A project operational manual has been prepared and is under review by the Bank for issuance of its no objection. 6. Statistical Planning. The CSA has established mechanism for the annual planning of surveys and census activities. 7. Annual Work Planning Reviews and M&E. The CSA will produce an Annual Work Plan and Budget for the SFR project, to be shared with SC/NPG and presented to the Bank for approval. The report will also include progress on performance indicators. 36 8. ESMF Implementation. Since the project will include construction of a few branch office buildings, the project is classified as category B. ESMF has been prepared and disclosed at CSA website and Bank Info shop on February 13, 2014 and February 14, 2014, respectively. CSA has prepared the operational manual for the project and it includes appropriate measures to fully implement the requirements of the ESMF. The project design also includes resources for implementing ESMF recommendations under component 4. 37 Annex 4: Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF) Ethiopia Statistics for Results Facility Project Project Stakeholder Risks Rating Moderate Descriptions: Risk Management: Borrower relations: Preparation and implementation relies The CSA will be encouraged to host NSS coordination meetings and workshops. Also, the on stakeholders. While there is strong ownership by the CSA established National Partnership Group (NPG) will play a key role with CSA partnership to implement the NSDS, the project also envisages the to increase transparency and communication of stakeholders and thereby manage and involvement of NSS members (for example, in training and mitigate possible risks. WB will work through its existing established relationship with the outreach programs). WB has a close working relationship with the CSA and other key MDAs. Some activities also involve CSA and will involve key MDAs in the project to improve statistical development in Regional Governments (e.g. business register and vital Ethiopia. The CSA will also work closely with NSS members, including regional statistics). Relationship of WB with Regional Governments governments, to enhance project impacts and reduce risks. needs to be strengthened. Donor relations: Coordination among donors and stakeholders is required. The NSDS was developed through Ensure DPs are fully informed about Bank missions and the Technical Working Groups consultative processes with key stakeholders. However, its during all stages of project development and implementation. implementation might face uncoordinated donor support. As this project plans to cover sectoral statistics, there are risks of duplicating responsibilities with other donors. Other stakeholders: The strengthening of the National The project has components to strengthen producers and users of statistics. The baseline Statistical System to improve the quality, timeliness and satisfaction survey envisaged by the project would also allow to work around the needs of accessibility of data is seen as positive by all stakeholders. stakeholders. Status: Resp: Client Stage: Both Due Date : N/A Ongoing Implementing Agency Risks (including fiduciary) Capacity Rating Substantial Description: Preparation and implementation relies on Risk Management: capacity in implementing agency. The CSA is the principal The project will strengthen implementation capacity through supporting physical collector and aggregator of official statistics in Ethiopia and it infrastructure, technical assistance and training. is the implementation agency for this project. It regularly conducts a number of national level surveys and censuses and The CSA procurement capacity would be strengthened through provision of procurement in general has a proven track record of working with experts. Knowledge sharing with best practice statistical offices and agencies engaged in statistical 38 capacity development would be organized for senior CSA management and project related staff. international development partners on project implementation. However, the agency has a few not insignificant capacity constraints. Low public sector salaries and benefits structure do not allow recruiting and keeping experienced staff. In addition limited office facilities in the branches constrain expanding human resources and IT capabilities. Capacities of MDAs are also limited. Not only they are challenged by the low level of the public sector incentive systems, but also they have little experience in coordinating their work to the National Statistical System. On operational procedures (procurement and financial management) of the World Bank in executing the project, there is already some capacity built from on-going and recently implemented projects. These projects, however, are much smaller in scope and size and therefore additional manpower and training is required to successfully implement the proposed SFR project. On funding capacity, it needs to be noted that statistical work in general is relatively capital intensive due to resource requirements for statistical survey work. In contrast to this is what the CSA is currently receiving as support from the Federal Government, which is limited and largely confined to regular surveys and census work. To bridge the gap, the agency receives support from external donors for some of its regular survey and census activities, but overall funding Status: capacity is limited. Resp: Client Stage: Implementation Due Date: N/A Ongoing Governance Rating: Moderate Description: While the CSA has shown a strong ownership in Risk Management: Raise awareness and ownership by the MDAs on the NSDS and SFR. the development of the NSDS and as part of its Invite MDAs to join the NPG and NSS meetings. Lobby management of MDAs on the implementation in the development of the SFR project design importance of statistics and increased allocation from the budget for their respective statistics units. and implementation arrangements, the involvement of MDAs is expected to increase, not least due to the establishment of the NPG and initiation of training activities by CSA for NSS Status: staff. Resp: Client Stage: Both Due Date: N/A Ongoing 39 Project Risks Design Rating High Description: On physical infrastructure, the project has a Risk Management: Bank missions will work with the CSA that the land and the design component on installing physical infrastructure. These include are ready on schedule as per the ESMF implementation. WB will work with DPs to the construction of model office buildings at branch level, strengthen the relationship between the implementing agency, the CSA and key MDAs. procurement of transport vehicles for the headquarters staff, and installation of IT infrastructure at the central and branch levels. The project also aims at networking the statistical units of key MDAs and the CSA. The risks arise in linking central and local level MDAs to the CSA central database. Also, the construction of model/pilot branch offices in the regions might affect the overall timing of the project due to increased administrative transactions triggered through public Status: procurement requirements and installing the ICT Resp: Client Stage: Preparation Due Date: N/A Completed infrastructure. Social & Environmental Rating High Description: The construction of the model branch offices Risk Management: Follow Government and WB safety requirement procedures for may cause some noise and waste in the surrounding area. construction to reduce the possible impacts. Bring appropriate experts on the team at ESMF has been prepared and disclosed for the project on CSA all levels of the project. website and Bank infoshop. Status: Resp: Client Stage: Both Due Date: N/A Ongoing Program & Donor Rating Moderate Description: The key donors support not only the NSDS but Risk Management: Donors have been involved in project preparation discussion and also the SFR activities. However, differences in the would be continually engaged during implementation. The NPG is one of the operational procedures may put operational burden to the mechanisms which will be used for this purpose. Efforts will be made to have implementing agency. coordinated missions with donors to reduce transaction costs to the government. Status: Resp: Both Stage: Both Due Date: N/A Ongoing Delivery Monitoring & Sustainability Rating Moderate Description: The project components of the SFR are based on Risk Management: Performance indicators (output, outcome levels) associated with the NSDS. No extra activity is created for the CSA and key project support areas have been defined for measurability, monitoring and evaluation. MDAs. Sustainability is likely to be maintained because the Ongoing discussions aim to encourage the Government to allocate IDA credits in CSA is the lead organization for the implementation of NSDS. support of the SFR project. Implementation Risk Rating: Substantial 40 Comments: CSA is committed to improving its performance and capacity as well as that of the National Statistics System as per the NSDS. It has set up a team to develop and implement the project. To mitigate identified risks with regard to procurement and financial management, CSA will recruit a qualified procurement specialist for the project as well as technical construction experts (architect and engineers) to oversee the design and construction supervision activities of the branch office buildings as well as the renovation works. The task team will closely follow implementation tasks and monitor risk. The learning by doing approach will be a key risk mitigation measure. In addition benchmarking with other NSOs will be carried out to promote activities related to data production and dissemination. Effort will also be made to hold result coordination meetings with the Ministry of Finance and other stakeholders to share project progress and seek feedback for making project adjustments if needed. 41 Annex 5: Implementation Support Plan – Strategy and Approach Ethiopia Statistics for Results Facility Project 1. The strategy for implementation support (IS) has been developed based on the nature of the project and its risk profile. It will aim to ensure that implementation support is provided to the client in a way that meets the client’s needs, and will focus on implementation of the risk mitigation measures defined in the ORAF. 2. Procurement. Implementation support will include: a) providing training to members of the CSA and the PIU; b) reviewing procurement documents and providing timely feedback to the PIU coordinator; c) providing detailed guidance on the Bank’s Procurement Guidelines to the PIU; d) advising and supporting procurement activities, including development of detailed procurement plan; and e) monitoring procurement process against the detailed Procurement Plan. There will be two supervision missions each year to visit CSA to carry out post-review of procurement actions and technical review. Short-term assistance in matters related to procurement procedures and guidelines will be provided by the project 3. Financial Management. Overall, the residual financial management risk for the project is assessed as moderate. Supervision will include a review of the project’s financial management system, including accounting, reporting and internal controls. The Bank will provide implementation support, including: (i) training on specific elements of the financial management process, e.g. completing withdrawal applications, format of financial reports; (ii) the regular review of quarterly IFRs, audit Reports and Management Letters from the external auditors, and follow-up on any issues with the auditors if the need arises. There will be one implementation support missions carried out each year to ascertain the adequacy of systems, which will be supplemented by desk reviews of IFR and audit reports. The FM supervision mission’s objectives will include ensuring that strong financial management systems are maintained for the project throughout its implementation period. 4. Environmental safeguards and ESMF. Periodic visits will be organized to visit branch office construction sites as per the requirements of the ESMF and annual work plans to ensure compliance with the environmental safeguards. 5. Core institutional reforms. The Bank team will closely supervise the implementation of the planned core institutional reforms (organizational, HR, ICT and Infrastructure) and provide guidance and support to the client on any relevant issue. Implementation Support Plan. Formal supervision and field visits will be carried out semi- annually. FM and procurement specialists will be based in the Ethiopia country office to ensure timely, efficient and effective implementation support to the client. Technical inputs. Bank staff from AFTP2, PREM Africa Statistics Practice Group, PARIS21, and DECDG (including the Statistics for Results Facility team) will provide technical inputs. Additional inputs and efforts will be coordinated with the other development partners involved in 42 the area of statistics, including DfID, EU, UNDP, UNICEF, UNFPA, and other NSS stakeholders. 6. The main focuses in terms of support for implementation for the project are as follows: Time Focus Resource Estimate Partner Role First Project management & TTL 15 SWs twelve Team Leadership NSS stakeholders and months Development Partners will Project Management Economic, Statistical and 6 SWs participate in annual Joint and statistical support Public Sector Experts CSA/DPG meetings and take part in discussions of project Procurement Procurement specialist 3 SWs performance and dissemination of results Financial Management FM Specialist 3 SWs Construction and IT Infrastructure and IT Infrastructure specialists 3 SWs 2 SWs Environmental specialist 12-45 Project management & TTL 30 SWs NSS stakeholders and months Team Leadership Development Partners will participate in annual Joint Project Management Economic, Statistical and 12 SWs CSA/DPG meetings and take and Statistical Support Public Sector Experts part in discussions of project Procurement Procurement specialist 8 SWs Financial Management FM Specialist 8 SWs Construction and IT Infrastructure specialist 8 SWs Infrastructure Environmental specialist 4 SWs 43 Annex 6: Sector Background Ethiopia Statistics for Results Facility Project The Central Statistical Agency’s (CSA) Institutional Challenges and Modernization Priorities for Enhancing Quality and Leadership in the National Statistical System (NSS) “As Ethiopia progresses towards sustainable economic development within the context of liberalizing and decentralizing economic management, the need for reliable and timely statistical data has become more crucial than ever before,” (Mr. Sufian Ahmed, Minister, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development of Ethiopia, 2009). “Without good statistics, the development process is blind: policy-makers cannot learn from their mistakes and the public cannot hold them accountable,” (World Bank, 2000). Introduction 1. This Annex provides a brief description of the Central Statistical Agency’s (CSA) normative framework and organizational profile, within the National Statistical System (NSS). It analyzes the main challenges and outlines modernization and statistical development priorities for improving the CSA’s institutional performance. Context 2. Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Sub-Saharan Africa. It has recorded an impressive rate of GDP growth of about 11 percent on average per annum from 2005/06 to 2009/10. The agriculture sector accounts for about 45 percent of the GDP and generates 75 percent of the employment in the economy. The Government’s Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) is guiding this development effort, which stresses evidence-based decision making and the measurement of program results (e.g. MDGs, PBS, Poverty Eradication, Rural Roads) 17 . Demand for statistics is burgeoning and the CSA and other key National Statistical System (NSS) members are at the heart of data production and dissemination. As per the NSDS road map and in response to emerging demands, the CSA plans to modernize and upgrade statistical development capabilities and infrastructure so that data production and quality can be made more effective, timely and accessible to users. 3. The CSA is the recognized authority in statistics in Ethiopia and renowned worldwide for its agriculture statistical programs. It has a broad statistical calendar and schedule for many socio-economic statistical survey publications, reports and census activities that are produced annually, quarterly and monthly. CSA staff members have a strong tradition of rigorous statistical planning and detailed field work, and demonstrate robust commitment to deliver results even under stressful work and logistical conditions. 17 Typically, evidence-based policy-making is defined as the use of statistics to identify issues, inform program design and policy choices, forecast future scenarios, monitor the implementation of policies and evaluate policy impacts, among other things. 44 I. The CSA’s Legal Framework in the NSS 4. Ethiopia’s House of People’s Representatives re-established the CSA in 2005, through its legislative authority based on Article 55 of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) Constitution. The resulting Statistics Law Proclamation 442/2005 granted the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED) oversight of CSA and its fulfillment of the following functions18:  To collect, process, analyze and disseminate the necessary socio-economic and demographic statistical data through censuses, sample surveys, continuous registration and administrative recording systems; and  To provide technical guidance and assistance to government agencies and institutions in their endeavors to establish administrative recording, registration and reporting systems, and build the capacity required for providing directives and consultations in database creation and development of administrative records and registration systems. 5. The government’s statistical function had existed since the 1960s under the auspices of the Central Statistics Office (CSO). However, the 2005 Statistics Act introduced the CSA as an autonomous federal government agency with its own legal personality and introduced the concept of the National Statistical System (NSS) to promote national statistical development in Ethiopia19 . The NSS is comprised of approximately forty public and private institutions that produce and use data and set policies (e.g. federal government MDAs, regional governments, associations etc. [see Table 1]). The MOFED, the CSA and the Statistical Council (which comprises of the upper management of sector ministry offices) are at the core coordinating bodies within the NSS. The membership of NSS is expanding as the system evolves. For example, regional governments and judicial branch entities are increasingly getting involved and participating in the system. 6. CSA is governed by a number of laws, plans and guidelines. These include the Information Law (Proclamation No. 590/2008 providing for the freedom of the mass media and access to information); the Civil Code (1960) and Revised Family Law (2000), Civil Registration Law (2012); the Public Sector Civil Service Regulations; the United Nations and African Union Statistical Standards; and the Principles of the Paris Declaration (PARIS21). Also, the Government of Ethiopia’s (GOE) Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), the National Strategy 18 The Statistics Act was passed on April 20, 2005 and incorporates the CSA’s: (i) objectives; (ii) powers and d uties; (iii) organization; (iv) powers and duties of the directors; (v) establishment of the statistical council; (vi) powers and duties of the statistical council; (vii) budget; (viii) obligation to provide statistical data; (ix) confidentiality of information; (x) prohibition; (xi) penalties; and (xii) power to issue regulation and directives. 19 The 2005 Statistics Act is considered in line with international best practice by the Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), as it is in line with the United Nations (UN) Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, which can be summarized as: (1) impartiality in data compilation and dissemination; (2) use of scientific principles, methods and procedures for data collection, processing, storage and presentation; (3) present information according to the scientific standards on the sources, methods and procedures; (4) comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics; (5) statistical agencies are to choose the sources of data; (6) confidentiality of data; (7) publication of the statistical law; (8) coordination among agencies producing statistics; (9) use of international concepts, classifications and methods; and (10) bilateral and multilateral cooperation in statistics. See http://unstats.un.org/unsd/dnss/gp/FP-New-E.pdf and African Statistical Newsletter, Volume 5, Issue 1, March 2011 for details. 45 for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) and the Statistical Council’s declarations and decisions, along with the CSA’s own directives, provide the operational basis and priority setting in the institution and for data production, quality management and dissemination of statistical information to NSS stakeholders. Table 1: Current Members of the National Statistical System Lead Agencies Ministry of Finance and Economic Development Central Statistical Agency Statistical Council Ministries, Departments and Agencies Ministry of Communication Information Technology (MDAs) Ministry of Culture and Tourism Ministry of Education Ministry of Federal Affairs Ministry of Health Ministry of Justice Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs Ministry of Water and Energy Ministry of Mining Ministry of Trade Ministry of Industry Ministry of Transport Ministry of Women, Children and Youth Ministry of Construction and Urban Development Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Civil Service Environmental Protection Authority Ethiopian Mapping Agency Ethiopian Electric and Power Corporation Ethiopian Roads Authority Federal Police Commission Government Housing Agency Ethiopian Small and Micro Enterprise Agency Federal Social Security Agency Ethiopia Revenue and Custom Authority HIV/AIDS Prevention and Control Office National Bank of Ethiopia Regional Entities Addis Ababa City Administration Finance and Economic Development Bureau Oromia Region Finance and Economic Development Bureau Research Associations Addis Ababa University Higher Education Relevance and Quality Agency Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute Ethiopian Civil Service University Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute Ethiopian Statistical Association Economic Association of Ethiopia Ethiopian Micro Finance Institutions Association 46 II. The CSA’s Institutional Profile and Setting 7. Statistical Workload and Inter and Intra-Institutional Coordination Functions. The CSA has a broad statistical calendar and schedule for its many socio-economic statistical survey publications, reports and census activities that are produced annually, quarterly and monthly or for specific purposes or special occasions. For example, Agricultural Production, Livestock and Court-Related Statistics are produced annually; International Travel and Tourism Indicators are published quarterly; and the Consumer Price Index is prepared monthly (see Table 2). In addition, the CSA is engaged in NSS coordination and the facilitation of quality enhancement work within the NSS. For example, through a consultative process, the CSA has developed the Ethiopian Data Quality Assessment Framework (E-DQAF) so that the data and statistics quality of the NSS can be improved as per international standards (see Figure 3 which shows the various linkages between the CSA and NSS actors at the HQ and BO levels). Table 2: CSA’s Statistical Calendar of Census and Surveys Areas: Frequency Latest Data Population Housing & Human Settlement Statistics Demographic and Health Survey Every 5 years 2010/11 Population Census Every 10 years 2007 Population- Inter-censal Every 10 years 2012 Poverty & Welfare Statistics Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HICE) Every 5 years 2010/11 Welfare Monitoring Survey (WMS) Every 5 years 2011 Labor Force Survey (LFS) Every 5 years 2013 Urban Employment Unemployment Survey Annual 2012 Time Use Survey 2013 Street Children Survey Agriculture, Natural Resources & Environment Statistics Annual Agricultural Sample Survey (AGSS) Annual 2013 Large and Medium Scale Commercial Farms Sample Survey Annual 2013 Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Panel Survey (ERSS)* Every 2 years 2012 Productive Safety Nets Program Panel Survey* Every 2 years 2012 Agricultural Growth Program Panel Survey* Every 2 years 2012 Feed the Future Program Panel survey* Every 2 years 2013 Sustainable Land Use Management Program Evaluation Survey* Every 2 years 2011 Teff Technology* 2012 Pastoralist area socio-economic survey* Every 5 years Agricultural Census Every 10 years 2002 Price Statistics Retail Price of Goods and Services Monthly April 2013 Producer Price of Agricultural Products Monthly April 2013 Business Statistics Medium and Large Scale Manufacturing Survey Annual 2012 Quarrying and mining survey Every 5 years Small and Micro enterprise survey Every 3 years 2012 Contractors- Construction Survey Annual 2011/2012 Distributive Trade Every 3 years 2011/12 Manufacturing Producer Price Index Survey Quarterly Ist Q 2013 Manufacturing Business Expectation Survey Quarterly Ist Q 2013 ICT Usage Household Survey Every 5 years Foreign Trade Statistics Quarterly/ Annual 1st Q 2013 Transport and Communication Statistics Annual Note *these are not regular CSA surveys. These are project based surveys available only for some periods 47 Figure 1: CSA's Inter and Intra Institutional Relationships 8. Organizational Structure. The CSA is headed by the Director General (DG) and has two Deputy Director Generals (DDGs). There are eighteen directorates pertaining to administration and statistical functions, which are managed by these three top CSA officials. Under the Surveys and Census Deputy Director General, there are four subject matter directorates, namely: the Agriculture and Environment Statistics Directorate, the Business Statistics Directorate, the Household and Price Statistics Directorate and the Demographic Statistics Directorate. The NSS Coordination and Operations Deputy Director General handles the NSS coordination, Standards and Quality Assurance Directorate, Information Systems Technology Directorate, and Cartography and Geographic Information System (GIS) Directorate. Other departments and units (e.g. planning, administration) are directly accountable to the DG, including the department responsible for the administration of CSA branch offices. (See Figure 2 for CSA organization structure). 48 Figure 2: Organizational Structure of the CSA 49 9. Branch Offices. Presently, the CSA has 25 branch offices spread across the country, which are mainly responsible for data collection and submission of the completed questionnaires or data to headquarters via email (from offices where IT capabilities exist). Each branch office has about 60-100 staff, of which about 8 are statisticians. There are plans to increase the number of branch offices to 30 in order to expand operational coverage to less-served areas (e.g. Somalie region). The branch offices are headed by a Branch Head and comprised of various units, including administration, statistical data collection, data entry, record keeping, and logistical support, among others. Enumerators are engaged on a contractual basis and are supervised by the field supervisors. Figure 3 provides the data collection process adopted for surveys in the branch offices. Table 3 provides the list of branch offices and their coverage areas20. Figure 3: Data Collection and Feedback Process in the Branch Offices 20 The AgSS is the broadest survey conducted by the CSA, and includes the largest number of enumeration areas (Addis Ababa is a special case and does not participate in the AgSS). Meanwhile the largest survey handled by the Addis Ababa branch office is the Large and Medium Scale Industry Survey. 50 Table 3: Salient Features of the CSA Branch Offices (BO) Large and Total Annual Agriculture Medium Scale Human Population Sample Survey (AGSS) Industry Resources of City/Town Survey No Location Enumeration Population(2007) Typical # Typical # of Areas Typical # of of Business # of Staff Covered by Enumerators Households Establishments (statistician) BO(2007) Engaged Covered Covered 1 Addis Ababa 2,739,551 2,739,551 N/A N/A 1170 71(3) 2 Adama 220,212 5,528,584 169 5,066 248 95(7) 3 Ambo 48,171 4,506,347 83 2,482 207 112(7) 4 Arba Minch 74,879 2,601,073 117 3490 24 132(9) 5 Asebe- Teferi (Chiro) 33,670 2,858,278 41 1,230 18 78(4) 6 Assa'ita 16,052 1,347,792 49 1,460 8 66(3) 7 Assosa 24,214 612,168 94 2,810 4 80(4) 8 Bahir Dar 155,428 5,637,643 125 3,744 175 158(12) 9 DebreBirhan 65,231 2,090,466 94 2,328 38 98(7) 10 Dessie 120,095 4,746,932 124 3,713 88 144(11) 11 Dire Dawa 233,224 798,920 24 720 84 67(8) 12 Gambella 39,022 307,096 70 2,100 0 63(4) 13 Goba 32,025 2,181,036 44 1,320 10 81(4) 14 Gondar 207,044 4,981,366 94 2,819 71 110(6) 15 Harar 99,368 1,833,630 72 2,158 35 77(5) 16 Hawassa 157,139 3,736,429 78 2,239 151 120(10) 17 Hosa'ina 69,995 4,174,402 175 5,240 84 141(7) 18 Jijiga 125,876 3,535,375 69 2,037 22 53(5) 19 Jimma 120,960 3,959,411 95 2,848 18 121(6) 20 Mekelle 215,914 3,223,585 106 3,178 131 120(9) 21 Mizan - Teferi 23,144 1,726,561 129 2,853 40 111(5) 22 Negele 35,264 3,420,971 37 1,107 7 99(4) 23 Nekemte 75,219 3,931,624 193 5,786 24 117(12) 24 Shire 47,284 1,093,403 56 1,676 81 64(7) 25 Sodo 76,050 2,081,535 79 2,364 45 93(7) Total 5,055,031 73,654,178 2,217 64,768 2,783 2471(166) 10. Human Resources. Currently, the CSA has 2,526 employees, and approximately 75 percent are located in the branch offices. Their classifications are as follows: about 380 professional statisticians; about 200 administrative professionals, such as finance, human resources, IT, technical and planning experts; about 600 semi-professionals, which includes field 51 supervisors, data entry operators and data editors; and 1346 support staff, which includes drivers, cleaners, security personnel. In terms of geographic distribution, 50-60 percent of professional statisticians work at the headquarters, while 70-80 percent of semi-professional and support staff are assigned to branch offices. (See Figure 4 below). In addition to these employees (who are on permanent and consultant contracts), the CSA also engages enumerators on a contractual basis for data collection. On average, about 2500-3000 enumerators are contracted every year by the CSA, of which about 70-80 percent work on agriculture surveys. Figure 4: Distribution of Headquarter Staff Distribution of Headquarter Staff Total CSA Staff = 2526 CSA staff in BOs 22 Directorate heads 215 Statisticians 72% 28% 201 Statistical support 163 Administrative 102 Support Staff 11. Budget and Finance. The CSA’s funding comes from multiple sources that include the government and several donors. In 2012, it received a total of about USD 19 million (of which about 9 million from donor support). The annual budget allocations from the government for recurrent and capital expenditures were USD 2.5 million and USD 7.4 million respectively, totaling nearly USD 10 million in 2012. The recurring budget goes mainly towards the payment of permanent staff salaries (85 percent), as well as maintenance and fuel for office cars, and payment of utilities. Capital budget is used for paying contract staff wages, including contracts for enumerators engaged in branch office surveys (38 percent); per diem for CSA staff when they travel for surveys (30 percent); and field vehicle expenses, including repairs and maintenance (7 percent). The remainder of the capital budget (approximately 24 percent) goes towards a wide variety of expenditures, including the maintenance and rehabilitation of office buildings, as well as expenses for the preparation and acquisition of survey materials (e.g. printing of questionnaires). (See Figures 5 and 6 below). 52 Figures 5 and 6: Budget Composition Recurrent (US$M 2.5) Capital (US$M 7.4) Contract Wages and Allowances Salary and Allowances Per Diem Vehicle Maintenance, Other Utilities, Vehicle Maintenance, Other Survey Materials 15% 24% 38% 85% 7% 31% 12. Donor Funds. The CSA receives significant donor funds for carrying out statistical surveys and for monitoring and evaluation activities related to specific programs. For example, about 49 percent of its total annual budget in 2012 (USD 8.7 million) came from donor resources. List of various CSA donor programs and funding sources are provided in table below21. Table 4: List of various CSA Donor Programs and Funding Sources No Project name Donor Fund Estimated Estimated Transferring Allocated Amount Allocated Organization US$ Amount ETB 1 HICE/WMS Irish Gov/DFID UNDP 916,222.00 15,328,881.72 PBS World Bank 470,000.00 5,926,418.00 WFP WFP 450,000.00 7,389,000.00 UNICEF UNICEF 172,554.89 2,170,740.55 Sub-Total 2,008,776.89 30,815,040.27 2 M&E Statistical PBS Project World Bank 2,134,070.00 31,788,944.30 Capacity Building Africa Development COMESA 732,840.00 10,861,312.99 Bank (ADB) UNFPA UNFPA 20,379.07 348,074.55 FAO FAO 150,000.00 1,545,300.00 UNICEF UNICEF 14,300.77 179,903.68 Sub-Total 3,051,589.84 44,723,535.52 3 DHS MACRO USAID 399,506.00 5,024,800.19 UNFPA UNICEF 499,860.14 6,288,240.55 UNFPA UNFPA 386,172.88 4,858,054.83 UNFPA UNFPA 97,925.28 1,231,900.00 UNFPA UNFPA 47,362.28 808,947.75 4 Rural Socio Economic World Bank World Bank 80,000.00 1,424,633.40 Survey Pastoralist Extension Survey 21 Data in the donor financing table pertains to latest information available based on CSA feedback. 53 5 Inter-sensual Survey Different UNFPA 249.566.44 4,866,545.64 6 Tef Technology ILRI ILRI 30,044.65 585,870.60 7 Time Use Survey DFID UN Woman 99,000.00 1,657,270.16 Different UNFPA 2241166.27 Sub-Total 1,889,437.67 26,746,263.12 Bill and Melinda Gates World Bank 1,832,356.00 29,959,255.00 Foundation Total 8,782,160.40 132,244,093.91 Source: CSA and other report including CRESS III. Institutional challenges and Modernization Requirements of the CSA22 13. Rapidly increasing demand, data gaps, and collection delays are all affecting performance of the CSA. Duplication of efforts among NSS members and data errors are also cause for concern. Weak perception of users regarding data importance also affects policies and effectiveness. Many of these challenges are due to institutional deficiencies and gaps such as weak organizational arrangements; poor infrastructure; high staff turnover; weak planning, administration and logistics; sub-optimal methodologies and tools; and meager training and dissemination efforts, among other factors. The following paragraphs provide a brief sketch of the main issues and strengthening needs. (a) Organizational and Coordination Gaps in the NSS. 14. The CSA’s organizational structure has evolved after its establishment in 2005, but directorates responsible for internal management (including branch office supervision and training) and NSS coordination have mostly remained understaffed, causing coordination and resource management problems. Weak internal administrative practices and controls, absence of modern IT systems, and low branch office capacities have all undermined CSA coordination efforts with the NSS, as well as added risk to its day-to-day operations. CSA’s operation is also weaker when compared to other MDAs. For example, it takes three times longer to hire staff in CSA than in MOFED (150 days instead of 50 days [see Figure 7]). 22 Based on NSDS mid-term review, CSA Business Process Re-engineering Report 2010 and Bank Assessments during project preparation. 54 Figure 7: Number of days needed to process requests across institutions (2010) 300 250 200 Ministry of Capacity Building Number of days 150 Ministry of Finance and Economic Development 100 Transport Authority 50 Health Ministry 0 Central Statistical Agency 15. CSA’s “spatial map” (see Figure 4) illustrates organizational and functional inadequacies at HQ, as basic administrative and operational units are fragmented. The move to the new HQ building should greatly alleviate these issues as work processes and organizational units would be consolidated and made to operate in an integrated manner. Also, overall performance could be improved through organizational strengthening and the training of senior managers in modern management practices; the filling of vacancies in critical management functions; and the introduction of IT systems to help monitor staff performance. Given that branch offices deploy a large bulk of CSA staff and perform core data collection roles, future programs may have to empower branch offices and decentralize data analysis and other functions to ensure sustainability. 55 Figure 8: Current Spatial Map of CSA Functional Units at HQ 16. Legal measures and international knowledge sharing is also needed to improve NSS coordination. Although the 2005 Statistical Act outlines the CSA’s organizational arrangements, it does not fully outline the statistical responsibilities of the sector ministries in the NSS vis-a-vis the CSA (for example, with regard to quality assurance). This poses a challenge when some sector ministries employ an equal or greater number of statisticians and have much larger budgets to deploy data production and dissemination activities than others. For example, the Federal Health and Nutrition Institute and the Mapping Agency both employ a large number of statisticians (450 and 350 statisticians, respectively23) as compared to about 400 statisticians in the CSA. The two institutions also have larger budgets. Some NSS institutions are also able to pay more to engage statisticians as some donors fund line positions to bypass the civil service regime. While working towards longer-term legal reforms, the CSA (aided by the Statistical Council) could work to develop Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) within the NSS and with donors. MOUs could help to avoid data conflicts and duplication of efforts; set a workable statistical calendar; and improve coordination on the use of data quality standards. Joint seminars 23 CRESS Report November 2012 56 on the EDQAF can also improve NSS esprit de corps, and help synchronize efforts among stakeholders (including donors). (b) Infrastructure Gaps: 17. CSA faces a critical challenge in its lack of standardized office facilities, particularly in the provinces24. To ensure quality and timeliness of data, it is essential for the CSA to be closer to the enumeration areas, and the 25 branch offices are instrumental in ensuring this field presence. However, none of these branch offices have the facility to support long-term investment on statistical infrastructure. Most of them are simply temporary offices with minimal spaces that can only be used for field coordination purposes. In some provinces, renting options are not available and in others, the available lease terms are too short to make long-term commitments. Most importantly, the CSA is not able to improve statistical data production by using a reliable IT network architecture because inadequate office facilities inhibit the establishment of a wide area network. It is, therefore, vital to address this problem by constructing a few branch offices initially, and mobilizing resources for others over the medium term. 18. The Government is ready to support infrastructure development and is seeking donor and regional state collaboration. The CSA has already contacted the regional governments who have expressed their willingness to provide land free of charge. Four regional governments have already provided promissory notes or land titles for CSA to build its branch offices that will serve as models of new CSA work methods and modern systems. In order to take advantage of these opportunities, the CSA, with World Bank support, has developed preliminary model designs for branch office buildings for large and medium cities 25 . The Government is also funding the construction of a new office block for a sizeable number of headquarters staff (about 500) to improve working conditions. 19. The CSA headquarters is located in the downtown area of the capital city, Addis Ababa. In the past, its employees lived in nearby residential areas, and commuting to the office was not an issue for most of the Agency’s staff. However, the recent construction boom in the city is changing settlement patterns. Areas that used to be residential are now being transformed into business districts, forcing more and more people to move to the suburbs. As a result, transportation has now become an important factor, and is adversely affecting staff productivity due to late arrivals, early departures and, occasionally, total absences from work. Inefficiency at the center is also affecting the productivity of field offices. Therefore, as is the case of other federal organizations, the CSA needs to address this problem by providing effective transportation services. 20. The Government and development partners plan to cover the cost of providing transportation service for CSA staff. These costs include several expenses in addition to the initial cost to procure the vehicles such as taxes on the newly imported vehicles, maintenance, and operational expenses. 24 “The physical environment in the CSA is not conducive to modern technological application and efficient management” NSDS mid-term review 2013. 25 Models A-D (ranging from 600 to 1200 square meter office space) have been developed and are available in project files. These model designs take into consideration international standards and norms. 57 21. Technological improvements can vastly improve data quality, timeliness and accessibility. The CSA has initiated some modernization of its statistical infrastructure using recent technologies. For example, by using PDA, some encouraging results have been achieved in price data collection, and quality and timeliness have improved a lot. However, this effort needs to expand to complex household surveys. There is an ongoing collaboration with the Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) and the World Bank to test Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) methods. These efforts should be expanded to CSA surveys, and other technologies need to be tested and applied. Therefore, infrastructure needs to be put in place to support CAPI and other techniques such as Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). 22. Basic connectivity issues still hinder the use of CSA’s recently installed VPN system, the new VPN system would enable some branch offices to share data with headquarters through a secure network (thus significantly improving CSA’s existing IT infrastructure). Large gaps remain in other areas. For example, more work needs to be done to improve the Agency’s central data center so that it meets basic requirements (it is currently comprised of only a few servers kept in a small room without a functioning ventilation system). ICT tools such as video conferencing could also help with statistical planning meetings and stakeholder outreach. 23. Transport infrastructure needs a major re-vamp. The CSA’s vehicle fleet of 211 cars/jeeps is severely run down, which affects the institutions efficiency and performance (about 64 percent are more than ten years old and 21 percent are considered non-functional). The transportation support for field work and data collection by branch offices is particularly weak, as 80 percent of the CSA fleet is managed by local offices (about 5 vehicles per branch office). Field visits indicate that half of the branch office vehicles are either unserviceable or under repair, affecting the local office’s budget as well and operations (on average each repair visit takes 84 days and costs about US$275 per vehicle). (c) Human Resources and Financial Management Systems Development 24. Attracting and retaining qualified statisticians has been a major problem due to low salaries and poor working conditions (e.g. office facilities, vehicles, and tools). A shortage of adequate training opportunities and other incentives also exists. Staff discipline and oversight systems have also been an issue. Currently, it takes about 150-270 days to enact disciplinary measures that deter poor performance, due to regulations that require the oversight of committees through multiple meetings. 25. Salaries at the CSA are considerably lower than many other government institutions. For example. CSA compares unfavorably with Ethiopian Telecommunications and the Sugar Corporation, which are both classified by the Ministry of Civil Service as profit- generating; as well as the National Security Agency and the Public Procurement and Property Administration Agency, which are classified as “priority” (see Table 3). Prior to 2011, employees were eligible for salary increases every two years. This practice has stopped, however, and salaries remain stagnant at the lower end of the scale. As a result, the CSA suffers from a high employee turnover rate. For example, from 2008 to 2013, 531 employees stopped working at CSA, 413 of which (78 percent) had willingly resigned. At the request of the government, a detailed review of government-wide staff turnover problem is being reviewed by the Bank, and will also look at the CSA’s specific challenges. Considering the importance of 58 statistics for development efforts, the authorities may wish to declare the CS A as a “priority agency” to help relieve some of the urgent human resource pressures associated with attracting competent and reliable staff. This would be critical as MOFED plans to transfer the preparation of national accounts statistics to CSA over the next few years, which requires the presence of highly specialized staff that must not be put at risk by not accounting for appropriate staff incentives. 26. The salaries of Ethiopian statisticians are also low when compared internationally. For example, a senior statistician at CSA receives a monthly wage of about US$277 compared to the median gross monthly wages of statisticians in Senegal and Kenya (US$412 and 1243, respectively [see Table 7]). Table 5. Comparison of salary scale across government institutions (Ethiopian Birr) CSA26 PPPA Anti-Corruption Directorate heads 4,343 – 6,460 9,776 – 12,782 9,573 – 12,269 Managers 3,817 – 5,776 7,401 – 11,486 8,727 – 11,344 Professionals 1,499 – 5,135 4,585 - 8,932 3,975 – 10,446 Semi-Professionals 1,499 – 3.985 3,200 – 7,024 3,975 – 8,727 Administrative 1,114 – 3,499 2,154 – 5,226 2,945 – 7,117 Support Staff 420 – 2,058 520 – 2,954 *Included in the category of Statistical Support are field supervisors, data entry operators, and data editors Table 6. Salary scale for CSA Headquarters Human Resources, by profession Number of Salary Range in Salary Range in employees ETB USD Directorate heads 22 3817 – 5776 206 – 312 Statisticians 215 1499 – 5135 81 – 277 Statistical support 201 1499 – 3985 81 – 215 Administrative 163 1114 – 3499 60 – 189 Support Staff 102 420 – 2058 22 – 111 Total 703 *The category of “Statistical Support” includes field supervisors, data entry operators, and data editors. Table 7: Median Gross Monthly Wage of Statisticians across Africa (in US$) Starting 5 years tenure 10 years 20 years tenure Salary tenure CSA* 81 121 245 277 Uganda 91 92 96 100 Benin 165 168 173 212 Togo 220 235 242 266 Niger 217 231 246 260 Ghana 120 241 314 386 Senegal 336 344 344 412 Rwanda 368 418 424 506 Tanzania 531 470 598 673 Kenya 329 646 845 1243 Zambia 799 831 956 969 S. Africa 2,055 2,470 2,965 3,487 26 The CSA’s salary scale except for those employees engaged in IT or Public Relations, due to provisions from the Ministry of Civil Service for exceptional work sectors Ref no: Civil Service Ministry 28/m48/8/15 59 27. Skills Mix and Training. About 70-80 percent of the staff is comprised of semi- professional and support staff. This compares unfavorably with agencies in Botswana, Tanzania and Rwanda, where the proportion is around 50 percent. Most of the semi-professional staff have 5-7 years work experience in the CSA, and a major professional education effort may help produce badly-needed statisticians from this group to fill some urgent needs (subject to HR skills analysis and evaluations). Broad introduction of ICT in various administrative, statistical and logistical functions with appropriate training could help improve CSA operations. 28. The supply of trained statistical and management staff needs to be increased. The CSA staff does not have adequate professional development opportunities. Service training courses are necessary for statistical, administrative and branch office staff, and regional stakeholders. These courses are increasingly possible, as many universities have been set up in the regions that can be engaged to deliver custom-designed statistical/management/IT courses for CSA and NSS staff. While the CSA constructs its new branch office buildings and sets up training rooms at these locations with video conferencing/e-learning capabilities over the coming years, it needs to tap into existing government training networks such as Woreda Net to jumpstart training, and offer professional development courses to its staff and NSS stakeholders. Other long and short-term training programs should also be developed. All this could be effectively accomplished when the CSA appoints a training coordinator, conducts an assessment of the training needs of CSA and NSS statistical staff and other personnel, allocates and refurbishes space for training provision, and conducts a medium-term program with financing from government and donor resources. 29. Budget and Financial Management. Most of the CSA’s work (e.g. planning, record keeping, reporting etc.) is done through paper-based systems, with the exception of record keeping for donor-funded projects. Modern IT-enabled financial management and record- keeping systems at the central and branch offices could improve transparency and performance in the CSA. Branch offices complain that the central financial management and procurement department takes too long to “respond to and finalize budget reports” and to address their queries, resulting in delays in procurement of materials and hiring of enumerators for field surveys. According to BPR, the cost of compliance is considered high, as unserviceable items (e.g. old vehicles, used tires, broken furniture, outdated survey equipment) take up valuable storage space and result in unnecessary rent payments, and disposal decisions take more than 3 years. Inappropriate storage of paper documents and equipment also poses health risk to store keepers, bookkeepers and other staff. (d) Data Development and Management Gaps27. 30. There are serious data gaps in some sectors, most importantly in business statistics. While there are some efforts by relevant ministries and departments, the available information does not meet the standard statistical formats. The CSA, therefore, needs to work with other federal agencies and integrate data sources to develop the sampling frame, and a system to regularly update it. Complete and current data is also missing for some sectors such as mining, energy, construction and transport. National accounts with respect to these sectors are aggregated based on rough estimates. In its effort to narrow the data gaps and improve the quality of the 27 Although the CSA is able to discharge its mandate well, following internationally recommended classifications, methodologies and standards, and has an impressive list of statistical products, NSDS has identified a number of gaps that need to be filled. 60 national accounts, the CSA has begun preliminary activities in the construction sector. This effort needs further strengthening to cover more sectors and develop reliable and timely data that will feed into the national accounts. 31. The Ethiopian Agricultural Census is the basis for the annual agricultural surveys and other agriculture related surveys and studies in the country. The last census was carried out over 12 years ago for 2001/2002. The information is now becoming obsolete, and the Government has acknowledged that the next census should be carried out soon. The NSDS has planned preparatory activities for its implementation in 2013/2014, with Government and donor support. The CSA needs to mobilize resources to carry out preparatory activities, including design of instruments, studies on the required information and methods of data capture, as well as workshops and consultations before the fieldwork. Agricultural Census fieldwork is planned for 2013/14, while the preparatory activities will start from 2013. 32. The Annual Agricultural Sample Survey, AGSS, is one of the flagship surveys of the CSA and the main source of agriculture statistics in Ethiopia. Area and production forecast and estimate reports coming out of this survey are submitted to the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, and the Ministry of Agriculture. One of the weaknesses of this survey, however, is its limited coverage in pastoral areas. Unfortunately, settlement patterns and security problems have contributed to this predicament. The mobile nature of some groups of the pastoral population does not allow use of the data collection methods employed in other sedentary regions. In addition, accessibility problems in some parts of the pastoral regions discourage the testing and the implementing of different approaches. However, in accessible areas, the CSA needs to start developing data using different techniques and build on the current collaboration with the World Bank, as well as implement earlier efforts with assistance from FAO. 33. The AGSS is a large-scale survey that is conducted nationally over a long period following the planting and harvesting seasons. The survey involves a large number of field staff and an extended supervision. Each year, the field staff training is carried out in a decentralized manner. However, this approach is creating some problems in understanding the content of the questionnaire. In addition, there are no adequate experienced trainers and audio visual support resources to handle a parallel training session in all the 25 branch offices. The CSA needs to improve the training content and approach. It needs to bring together field staff from 2 to 3 branches in one center, and provide a more rigorous training with more resources. 34. A data gap in vital statistics is another important area that the NSDS has highlighted. This information is required to make population projections at national, regional and district/zonal levels. The decentralized civil registration activity is expected to be undertaken by the agency responsible for civil registration, while the CSA will compile the vital statistics. In collaboration with relevant MDAs (e.g. Ministry of Justice, the Federal Supreme Court, Legal and Judicial System Research Institute), the CSA should conduct some preparatory work to develop and implement the system. 61 (e) Data Quality Assurance: Methodological Research and Analysis Gaps. 35. The NSDS points out the need to strengthen statistical capacity in the NSS. The CSA needs to strengthen its methodology research unit so that it can formulate and enforce statistical standards and provide quality assurances in the NSS. To this end, relevant training for the CSA and key MDAs in the NSS needs to be identified and the CSA should take the lead in coordinating the training needs assessment study. Although some information has already been collected, more work needs to be done, as the available information is not adequate. Additionally, more training needs to be identified and added as part of the NSDS implementation process. 36. In addition, the CSA and the World Bank are currently implementing the Ethiopian Rural Socioeconomic Survey (ERSS). Integrated with the AGSS, the ERSS project has been designed to generate panel data on farm and non-farm households in rural areas and small towns. The first wave is being finalized and the second wave will be implemented in 2013/14. The household data from ERSS will be used to study poverty dynamics and the role of agriculture in poverty reduction, inter alia. ERSS is funded by both the World Bank and the CSA but some funding gaps must be filled if the CSA is to ensure that the ERSS becomes an integral part of its household survey system. (f) Dissemination and Statistical Advocacy 37. The NSS’s lack of a framework to disseminate regular statistical publications and data to users is a weakness. As a result, the available statistical resources are underutilized. This weakness has also led to duplication of efforts by data-producing agencies, often with contradictory estimates on similar outcomes of interest. Thus, the CSA and key MDAs need to re-vamp their dissemination infrastructure, including upgrading and updating websites, creating necessary data portals, launching radio programs, and setting up dissemination units on wheels with information materials in regional languages. 38. The weakness in dissemination is also due to lack of knowledge on the users side. Advocacy work in national and regional languages to create awareness and stimulate demand for statistical information is therefore required. (g) NSS Monitoring and Evaluation Demands. 39. The Government of Ethiopia is implementing the Growth and Transformation Plan, the Millennium Development Goals and other national and sectoral plans and policies. All of these initiatives need to be monitored and evaluated to track progress and make necessary adjustments. The capacity of the CSA to carry out M&E using data collected by the CSA and key MDAs needs to be strengthened as well. 62 Annex 7: Procurement Arrangements Ethiopia Statistics for Results Facility Project Procurement Implementation Arrangements 1. Procurement under the project would be carried out in accordance with: (i) “Guidelines: Procurement of Goods, Works, and non-Consulting Services Under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers” dated January 2011; (ii) “Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants Under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers” dated January 2011; (iii) “Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants” dated October 15, 2006 and revised January 2011; (iv) introduction of Exceptions to National Competitive Bidding Procedures; and (v) the provisions stipulated in the Legal Agreements. 2. A Procurement Plan acceptable to the Bank was agreed during Grant negotiations. For each contract to be financed by the Grant, the different procurement methods or consultant selection methods, the need for prequalification, estimated costs, prior review requirements, and time frame was agreed between the Beneficiary and IDA/WB task team in the Procurement Plan. The Procurement Plan would be updated at least annually or as required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. 3. A General Procurement Notice (GPN) will be prepared and published in United Nations Development Business (UNDB), on the Bank’s external website and in at least one national newspaper after the project is approved by the Bank Board, and/or before Project effectiveness. Specific Procurement Notices for all goods and works to be procured under International Competitive Bidding (ICB) and Expressions of Interest for all consulting services to cost the equivalent of USD 200,000 and above would also be published in the United Nations Development Business (UNDB), Bank’s external website and the national press. 4. The Procurement and Property Administration Directorate of CSA will process procurement under the project with detailed procurement support from a Procurement Specialist recruited in the Project Implementation Unit. A number of procurement packages are envisaged under the Statistics for Results Facility Project. The project will finance activities in all three categories of procurement: works, goods, and consultancies. Under the works category, the project will finance civil works contracts for construction of four new branch office buildings at different cities around the country. The project will also finance works contracts for building renovation at the CSA headquarters for the purpose of converting it to training area and library. Under the goods category, the project will finance the procurement of data collection tools, IT Equipment, furniture and vehicles, and the establishment of data centers at various locations. Under the consultancy category, the project will finance consultancy assignments that will be identified and included in the procurement plan. 5. Procurement risk assessment: As part of the project preparation, the World Bank Procurement Specialist has undertaken a procurement risk assessment of the project implementing agency, the CSA. The procurement capacity of CSA has been assessed based on 63 the criteria stipulated in the Procurement Risk Assessment and Management Systems (P-RAMS). According to the assessment, the procurement risk under the project is high. 6. The CSA will implement all procurements under the project. The agency has recently established a dedicated procurement and property administration directorate, which is an encouraging move. However, although the agency is gaining some experience under the PBS program, it still has limited procurement capacity. The agency faces a lack of qualified procurement experts, a lack of procurement manuals, a lack of proper record keeping system, limited capacity to prepare realistic procurement plans and monitor activities based on the plans, limited contract management capacity, and other challenges. The agency has also no prior works procurement and contract management experience. Given that the project will involve works procurement and contract management, this lack of experience, combined with other limitations, makes the procurement risk of the project high. 7. To mitigate the identified risks, it is recommended that the CSA recruit one qualified procurement specialist for the project who will be member of the PIU that will be established for the specific purpose of this project implementation. The CSA is also recommended to recruit two technical experts/engineers to oversee the design and construction activities for the four buildings and the renovation work. The procurement specialist and technical experts should be recruited and deployed before the project is made effective. 8. The procurement risk assessment notes that the CSA has processed selection of consultant for the design of four branch buildings located in Hawassa, Ambo, Mekele, Bahir Dar and cities. It is noted the design consultancy contract will be processed under the budget from component 5. Given that similar buildings will be constructed at each of the four locations, the design process is not expected to take long time model designs have already been done to facilitate this process and are available in project files. After the building design is completed, the bid for construction will be launched according to a method that will be indicated in the approved procurement plan. Model designs have already been prepared to help the CSA advance the construction master planning process, which will be funded under component 5. 9. Prior Review Threshold: The thresholds for Prior Review and for International Competitive Bidding (ICB), including the maximum contract value for the selection of consultants from a short list of exclusively Ethiopian firms, are presented in the table below for the purpose of guiding the preparation of the initial procurement plan. The procurement capacity of implementing agencies will be reviewed annually and the threshold will be revised according to the improvements or deterioration in the procurement capacity. Additionally, the procurement plan will indicate the number of contracts procured through National Competitive Bidding procedures or selection of consultants, using a short list of exclusively Ethiopian firms that will be subject to prior review irrespective of threshold as part of risk mitigation. 64 Category Prior Review ICB National Short- Threshold (USD ) Threshold List Max Value (USD ) (USD ) Works ≥5,000,000 ≥7,000,000 NA Goods and non-consultancy services ≥500,000 ≥1,000,000 NA Consultants (Firms) other than ≥200,000 NA <200,000 Engineering and Supervision Consultants (Firms) for Engineering ≥200,000 NA <300,000 and Contract Supervision Consultants (Individuals) ≥100,000 NA NA 10. Applicable Procurement Methods- Selection of procurement methods shall be in accordance with the Bank’s guidelines (stated in paragraph 1 above) and shall be indicated and agreed-upon for each of the procurement packages in the procurement plan for the project. 11. In view of the above, procurement of goods and services above the stated threshold shall be undertaken through an International Competitive Bidding procedure using the Bank’s latest Standard Bidding Document. Procurement of Goods and Non-Consulting Services that are below the “Prior Review” threshold can be procured through the National Competitive Bidding Procedure. Goods and services of small value contracts of less than USD 50,000 may be procured using Shopping procedures in accordance with paragraph 3.5 of the Bank Guidelines. Where it has been determined to be to the advantage of the operation, Procurement of Goods and non-Consulting services under Direct Contracting shall be procured in accordance with paragraph 3.7 of the Bank’s Guidelines. 12. Selection of Consultants shall be carried out using the Bank’s latest Standard Request for Proposal (RFP). Consulting firms for services estimated to cost more than USD the equivalent to 100,000 would be selected through a Quality and Cost based Selection (QCBS) method. Contracts where consulting firm services are estimated to cost less than the equivalent to USD 100,000 may be selected using the Selection based Consultants Qualification (CQS) method. Individual consultants will be selected on the basis of their qualifications and in accordance with Section V of the Bank’s Guidelines for Selection and Employment of Consultants. Consulting services for audits and other services of a standard or routine nature may be procured using the Least Cost Selection Method, while Single Source Selection may be used when justified in accordance with paragraph 3.8 of the Bank’s Guidelines. For consulting services valued less than the equivalent to USD 200,000, shortlists may comprise entirely of national consultants in accordance with paragraph 2.7 of the Guidelines, but if the consulting service is for engineering and supervision services, the national consultants may be entirely shortlisted for vales up to the equivalent to USD 300,000. 13. Training and Workshops- Training activities are envisaged in association with capacity building and system strengthening of the agency. For all training activities, an annual training plan shall be prepared by the implementing agencies and approved by the Bank. If training is to be outsourced to an outside training institute, the procurement activity required for the hiring of the training institute shall be integrated into a procurement plan and agreed with the Bank. 65 Similarly, venues for workshops and training materials will be determined through a procurement process comparing at least three quotes. 14. National Competitive Bidding Procedures. National Competitive Bidding (NCB) shall follow the Open and Competitive Bidding procedures set forth in the Ethiopian Federal Government and Procurement and Property Administration Proclamation No. 649/2009 and Federal Public Procurement Directive issued by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development dated June 10, 2010, provided that such procedure shall be subject to the provisions of Section I and Paragraphs 3.3 and 3.4 of the “Guidelines for Procurement of Goods, Works, and Non-Consulting Services under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits & Grants by World Bank Borrowers” (January 2011) (the “Procurement Guidelines”) and the following additional provisions: i. The Recipient’s standard bidding documents for procurement of goods and works acceptable to the Bank shall be used. At the request of the Borrower, the introduction of requirements for bidders to sign an Anti-Bribery pledge and/or statement of undertaking to observe Ethiopian Law against Fraud and Corruption, and other forms that ought to be completed and signed by him/her, may be included in bidding documents if the arrangements governing such undertakings are acceptable to the Bank. ii. If pre-qualification is used, the Association’s standard prequalification document shall be used; iii. No margin of preference shall be granted in bid evaluation on the basis of bidder’s nationality, origin of goods or services, and/or preferential programs such as but not limited to small and medium enterprises. iv. Mandatory registration in a Supplier List shall not be used to assess bidders’ qualifications. A foreign bidder shall not be required to register as a condition for submitting its bid and if recommended for contract award shall be given a reasonable opportunity to register with the reasonable cooperation of the Recipient, prior to contract signing. Invitations to bids shall be advertised in at least one newspaper of national circulation or the official gazette, or on a widely used website or electronic portal with free national and international access. v. Bidders shall be given a minimum of thirty (30) days to submit bids from the date of availability of the bidding documents; vi. All bidding for goods and works shall be carried out through a one-envelope procedure. vii. Evaluation of bids shall be made in strict adherence to the evaluation criteria specified in the bidding documents. Evaluation criteria other than price shall be quantified in monetary terms. Merit points shall not be used, and no minimum point or percentage value shall be assigned to the significance of price, in bid evaluation. viii. The results of evaluations and awards of contracts shall be made public. All bids shall not be rejected and the procurement process shall not be cancelled, a failure of bidding shall not be declared, or new bids shall not be solicited, without the Bank’s prior 66 written concurrence. No bids shall be rejected on the basis of comparison with the cost estimates without the Bank's prior written concurrence. ix. In accordance with paragraph 1.16(e) of the Procurement Guidelines, each bidding document and contract financed out of the proceeds of the Financing shall provide that: (1) the bidders, suppliers, contractors and subcontractors, agents, personnel, consultants, service providers, or suppliers shall permit the Association, at its request, to inspect all accounts, records and documents relating to the bid submission and performance of the contract, and to have them audited by auditors appointed by the Association; and (2) acts intended to materially impede the exercise of the Bank’s audit and inspection rights constitute an obstructive practice as defined in the paragraph 1.16 a (v) of the Procurement Guidelines. 15. The Beneficiary shall use the Bank’s Standard Bidding Document for Procurement of Small Works (issued December 2012) when preparing the bidding documents for construction of the four CSA branch office buildings. 67 Annex 8: Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements Ethiopia Statistics for Results Facility Project Executive summary 1. A financial management (FM) assessment was conducted in accordance with the Financial Management Practices Manual issued by the Financial Management Sector Board on March 2010. The objective of the assessment was to determine whether the participating institutions have adequate financial management systems and related capacity in place which satisfies the Bank’s Operation Policy/ Bank Procedure 10 with respect to financial management. The policies and procedures requires borrower maintain, or causes to be maintain, for Project implementation, financial management arrangements that are acceptable to the Bank and that, as part of the overall arrangements in place for implementing the Project, provide reasonable assurance that the proceeds of the Investment Project Financing are used for the purposes for which they are granted. Financial management arrangements are the planning, budgeting, accounting, internal control, funds flow, financial reporting, and auditing arrangements of the borrower and entity or entities responsible for Project implementation. The financial management assessment considers the degree to which (a) the budgeted expenditures are realistic, prepared with due regard to relevant policies, and executed in an orderly and predictable manner, (b) reasonable records are maintained and financial reports produced and disseminated for decision-making, management, and reporting, (c) adequate funds are available to finance the Project, (d) there are reasonable controls over Project funds, and (e) independent and competent audit arrangements are in place. The assessment also included the identification of key perceived financial management risks that may affect program implementation and proceeded to develop mitigation measures against such risks. The assessment was conducted at the CSA. 2. The project financial management arrangements will be coordinated and managed by the Central Statistical Agency (CSA). The FM risk for the project is rated as Substantial and is expected to reduce to Moderate when mitigating actions are implemented. The main strengths of the Project are CSA has a strong internal control and financial management system which is documented in the financial management manual and that CSA has experience working with Bank operations including FM requirements. The main weaknesses for the FM arrangements delays in submission of audit report and Interim Financial reports (IFR)s. Action plans that encompass the mitigation measures for the risks and weaknesses are prepared and agreed. 3. The project will prepare and submit quarterly unaudited Interim Financial reports (IFRs). The contents and formats of the IFRs were agreed during Negotiations. Disbursements will be made on traditional based disbursement method using SOEs the details of which will be stated in the Disbursement letter. All disbursement methods are allowed for the project (advance, reimbursements, direct payment and special commitment). For the advance method, the project will open a segregated USD Designated Account. In addition, local currency accounts at federal level and in branches as appropriate will be opened for the project purposes. 68 4. The project in coordination with Office of Federal Audit General (OFAG) is required to have the project auditor selected within 3 months of effectiveness and the project will have annual audit conducted. The project will then submit project audited financial statements to the Bank in a form and content satisfactory to the Bank. The audit TORs were agreed during Negotiations. 5. FM-related covenants include maintaining satisfactory financial management system throughout the life of the project, submission of IFRs of the project for each fiscal quarter within 45 days of the end of the quarter; and submission of annual audited financial statements and audit report including the management letter, within 6 months of the end of each fiscal year. 6. Based on the assessment conducted, it is the conclusion of the Bank’s FM assessment that the FM arrangements meet the IDA’s requirements as per OP/BP 10. It is adequate to provide, with reasonable assurance, accurate and timely information on the status of the project required by the Bank. Country Issues 7. The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) has been implementing a comprehensive public financial management (PFM), with support from development partners, including the Bank for the last twelve years through the Expenditure Management and Control sub-program (EMCP) of the government’s civil service reform program (CSRP). This was being supported by the IDA financed Public Sector Capacity building Support Program (PSCAP), Protection of Basic Services (PBS) and other donors financing as well as Government own financing. These programmes have focused on strengthening the basics of PFM systems: budget preparation, revenue administration, budget execution, internal controls, cash management, accounting, reporting and auditing. With the basics increasingly in place, the Government is beginning to increase its focus on strengthening the linkages between public policy objectives and expenditure. In this context, GOE has embarked on a programming/performance budgeting framework within MOFED. 8. The May 2011 Ethiopia PEFA PFM performance measurement framework assessment covered the federal government in form of Ministries and Agencies as well as some regions. The study notes that Ethiopia has made significant progress in strengthening PFM at both federal and regional levels. Improvements have been noted in budgeting and accounting reform. The predictability in the composition of expenditure improved sharply, the variance in excess of the aggregate deviation falling to 5.7 percent. The budget is reasonably realistic and is reasonably implemented as intended, and performance in this regard has improved marginally since the period covered by the first PEFA assessment. 9. Comprehensiveness and transparency improved during the period covered by the 2010 PEFA assessment. Other notable areas of improvement are: Increase in the amount of budgetary documentation submitted to House of Peoples’ Representatives (HPR), strengthened reporting on donor projects and programs, improved transparency in inter-governmental fiscal relations, through greater timeliness in the provision of information to regional governments on the size of the budget subsidies that they will receive, and improved access by the public to key fiscal 69 information through audit reports. An issue remaining to be addressed is for the Government to make available to the public information on the incomes and expenditures of extra-budgetary operations. 10. Weaknesses were noted in internal audit which necessitate increased focus on systems audit, and increasing management response to audit findings. Further strengthening of the internal audit function is a key challenge. The full roll-out of IBEX has helped to strengthen the quality of in-year budget execution reports, Annual financial statements prepared for 2006/07- 2008/09 (EFYs 1999-2001) included information on revenue and expenditures, financial assets and liabilities, but excluded information on donor-financed projects and programs. A limiting factor continued to be the use of non-IPSAS compliant accounting standards; compliance with IPSAS would require disclosure of information on donor-financed projects and programs. 11. Overall performance of external audit has improved due to increased coverage and a lessening of the time needed to audit annual financial statements. Audits conducted by OFAG generally adhere to INTOSAI auditing standards and focus on significant issues. The PFM study also notes that regional performance of PFM reform varies from region to region. Risk Assessment and mitigation 12. The residual overall FM risk rating for the project after the implementation of expected mitigation measures is Moderate. The main strengths and weaknesses are detailed out below: 13. The project financial management is strengthened by the following features:  The internal control system provides sufficiently for the separation of responsibilities, powers and duties;  Normal government procedures and manuals will be in use. In addition OM is developed;  The implementing entity has experience in Bank financed projects;  Strong budget preparation process;  The project will employ a qualified financial management specialist under the PIU. 14. The project financial management is challenged by the following features:  Although finance staff have years of experience, they are not trained with Bank policies and Procedures;  There were significant delays in preparing and submitting quarterly unaudited Interim Financial Reports of Bank financed projects failing to meet agreement covenants;  There were significant delays in having the annual audits conducted (of Bank financed projects) and there by leading to significant delays in submitting the Audit Reports failing to meet covenants. 15. The following action plans that encompass the mitigation measures for the risks and weaknesses are prepared and agreed: 70 Responsible Action to be taken Expected completion date body 1. Manuals- Two months after effectiveness CSA Detail FM arrangements stated in the OM will be updated or strengthened in the area of Budgeting, accounting, internal control, fund flows, reporting and audit areas consistent with the PAD Budget Monitoring challenge- Regularly CSA An Integrated Work Plan and Budget to be funded by the SFR Program will be produced by CSA and submitted to the SC for approval no later than three months prior to the start of each fiscal year. IFRs will disclose and explain financial performance with emphasis on budget utilization and variance analysis 3 Accounting staffing challenge- a. 1 months after effectiveness a. CSA a. Recruit FMS at the CSA PIU b. As needed b. CSA/WB b. Training will be organized by the FMS in c. 2 months after effectiveness c. CSA collaboration with the Bank to refresh or re-orient the CSA on FM issues c. Chart of Account- The project will be provided its own chart of account with in the accounting software it is using which can be detailed out in the OM. The existing government chart of accounts will be reviewed to accommodate for the Project which will be mapped with the project budget to meet the project activities. This will help in recording and tracking of expenditures with the budget. 4 Internal control- a. Semi-annually or annually CSA a. Internal auditor will perform an audit of the project b. Regularly and report to the management regularly b. Stringent follow up on advances will be exerted if funds are transferred to Branches 5 Opening of bank accounts at the NBE One month after effectiveness CSA 6 Reporting challenges-CSA senior management will provide Ongoing CSA due attention to reporting deadlines 7 Regarding Audit c. Three months after CSA a. CSA will recruit external auditors acceptable to the effectiveness Bank d. within 6 months of the end of b. CSA will submit audit reports within 6 months of the the EFY end of the EFY and will publicly disclose the audited financial statements in a manner acceptable to the Bank Financial Management Implementing entity 16. CSA will be responsible for financial arrangements and through the PIU will assume overall financial management responsibility for project funds, ensuring that: (i) the project financial management activities are carried out efficiently and in accordance with the government accounting standards; (ii) the project financial affairs and administration are carried out as per the Financing Agreement; (iii) qualified accountants are recruited and assigned to handle the project funds; (iv) adequate internal controls are in place and internal auditors provide 71 regular support to the project; and (v) the project financial transactions are audited by OFAG or an independent external auditor (that may be selected as per agreed upon procurement method from a list of auditors acceptable to audit World Bank financed project that will be provided by OFAG), in accordance with international standards on auditing. Budgeting 17. CSA will follow the Federal Government of Ethiopia's budgeting procedure. The federal budgeting process usually starts by issuing the budget preparation note to the Budgetary Institutions (BIs). Based on the budget manual, the BIs prepare their budgets in line with the budget ceilings and submit these to MOFED within six weeks following the budget call. The budgets are reviewed at first by MOFED and then by the Council of Ministers. The final recommended draft federal budget is sent to parliament in early June and is expected to be cleared at the latest by the end of the EFY. Budget procedures are documented in the Federal Government of Ethiopia Budget Manual. 18. The budgetary system of CSA lays down the physical and financial targets of the project. It is prepared in sufficient detail for all significant activities to provide a meaningful tool with which to monitor subsequent performance. An Integrated Work Plan and Budget to be funded by the SFR Program will be produced by CSA and submitted to the SC for approval no later than three months prior to the start of each fiscal year. There are procedures in place to plan project activities and collect information from the units in charge of the different components. 19. The Program Coordinator in the CSA will use Integrated Work Plan and the Budget to guide their day-to-day activities and as a basis for gauging and reporting on the implementation process at SC meetings. Statistics for Result (SFR) program Coordinator is responsible for updating and revising plans and budgets to reflect changed circumstances or issues arising during implementation. CSA SFR PIU will prepare a comparison of the actual expenditure with that of the budget and avails the explanation for significant variations from the budget. IFRs will also include requirement to compare actual performances with budget and to provide an explanation for the variances. 20. The Projects OM will reflect detail requirements in budget preparation and budget monitoring. Accounting Staffing 21. The finance department of CSA is directly responsible to the General Director. Currently the accounts department is staffed with eighteen personnel at its head office and at least with five staff members (Accountants) at its twenty five branches. The finance staff has varying qualification and years of experience. The department has adequate accounting staff. All staffs are employed on a permanent basis. CSA staff has adequate experience in implementing Bank financed projects and at present CSA is implementing Bank financed projects such as PBS and LSMS. However, there is work load observed leading to delays in reporting and also the staff has not obtained training on Bank financed project on FM issues. 72 22. The project will employ a full time Financial Management Specialist (FMS) under the PIU within one month of effectiveness of the project. The FMS will be responsible for all FM aspects of the project and will work in collaboration with CSA finance Department. The FMS will be responsible for day to day accounting of the project transaction. He will also be responsible for preparation of monthly, quarterly and annual financial reporting. In addition he will be the focal person for the audit of the project financial statements and submission of the audit reports to the Bank. The Bank will invite staff that work on the project for trainings related to FM whenever such are available and would help build the capacity. Accounting policies and procedures 23. CSA follows the Government’s accounting policies and procedures for accounting for its day to day transactions. The Ethiopian Government follows a double entry bookkeeping system and modified cash basis of accounting. This is documented in the government’s accounting manual (Annex 8). This has been implemented at the federal level and in many regions. The main elements of the accounting reform are the adoption of (i) comprehensive Chart of Accounts consistent with the budget classification; (ii) a system of ledgers accommodating all types of accounts (including transfers, assets, liabilities and fund balance in addition to revenues and expenditures); (iii) double entry book-keeping (thus, self-balancing set of accounts); (iv) a system of control of budgetary commitments (recording commitments as well as actual payments); (v) modified cash basis transaction accounting; and (vi) revised monthly report formats to accommodate double-entry book-keeping and commitment control and permit better cash control. The government’s accounting manual provides detailed information on the major accounting procedures and this is annexed to this report. In addition to the government’s accounting manual, the project has developed an Operation Manual where FM aspects are covered as well which will be strengthened by effectiveness. 24. CSA uses the Integrated Budget and Expenditure (IBEX) software for the government funds. For the different projects CSA is handling, it is using spreadsheet to summarize the accounting entries. The project will use the same IBEX software or other soft wares if needed in preparing the accounts of this project and project financial reports will be produced form the accounting software. 25. The existing government chart of accounts will be reviewed to accommodate for the Project which will be mapped with the project budget to meet the project activities. This will help in recording and tracking of expenditures with the budget. This review and mapping exercise will be completed within two month after effectiveness of the project. Fund Flow including Disbursement arrangements 26. CSA will open a new segregated Designated Account denominated in US Dollars at the National Bank of Ethiopia. Local Account in Birr will also be opened to receive transfer from the USD account. These bank accounts would finance all eligible project expenditures as per the financing agreement. The authorized ceiling of the Designated Account would be stated in the disbursement letter. 73 27. The disbursement methods the project will employ are: Advances to the designated account, Direct Payments, Reimbursements and Special Commitment. At the beginning of the project, initial advances will be transferred to the designated account were determined and stated in the disbursement letter during negotiations. Subsequent replenishments to this designated account will be made on the basis of statements of expenditures (SoEs). This project will use traditional or SOE based disbursement arrangements. Thresholds will be set and will be stated in the disbursement letter. 28. The fund flow arrangement for the project is summarized in the following chart. World Bank CSA Designated Account in USD CSA Birr Account Different branches of CSA 29. Withdrawals from the grant above the stated thresholds will involve the submission of not only SoEs but supporting documents. Documentation supporting expenditures claimed against SoEs will be retained by the Implementing Agency and will be available for review during supervision missions. 30. The minimum value for direct payment and special commitment were determined during the grant negotiations and were documented in the Disbursement letter. 31. CSA shall open a separate bank account for this project (within one month of effectiveness) as follows:- a. USD Segregated Designated bank account at the National Bank of Ethiopia to be managed by the CSA at the Federal level for this project CSA will nominate and inform the World Bank on signatories for this designated account. b. Local currency accounts to be managed by the CSA at the Federal level and bank accounts at the Branches as appropriate. 32. Retroactive Financing: CSA has requested retroactive financing for up to 5% of the total amount of financing for all eligible expenditures that has been incurred on or after April 21, 2014 and up to the date of the financing agreement signing, total amount of which will be USD 74 500,000 equivalent. This retroactive financing is intended to finance the following activities: inter alia, (a) hiring of FM and procurement experts and for set up of project management office; (b) hiring of construction experts to meet the needs of the ESMF; and (c) hiring of consultant to prepare an updated user satisfaction index. Upon effectiveness, the CSA would resubmit a separate withdrawal application for the retroactive financing indicating the amount and financing agreement categories that it relates to and with all pertinent documents to substantiate the requirement of the retroactive financing. Other offices and implementing entities. 33. CSA has 25 branches throughout the country participating in the implementation of the project. There is a specified procedure for flow of funds, financial information, accountability and audits in relation to these branches. For government transactions, since CSA follows a decentralized system, fund will be transferred to each branch and each branch is responsible for the expenditures and filling of the documents. The branches will send to CSA monthly financial reports on monthly basis but retain all source documents with themselves. Documents to the external auditors will also be available at the branch level. 34. The project will make use of existing structures of CSA, including its branch offices situated in different parts of the country. The CSA Branch Offices will also be responsible for providing oversight and follow-up for the implementation of the project. 35. Within the four branch offices (in Ambo, Hawassa, Bahir Dar and Mekelle) where the first set of new office buildings are expected to be constructed a branch level Project Implementation Unit (PIU) will be established. The PIU, among others, will be responsible for following-up on the infrastructure development and rehabilitation work that will be undertaken through a contracted construction firm, thereby ensuring that the recommended environmental and social mitigation measures are being implemented during the construction work. 36. There will be some small fund transfer to the branch offices based on the need to facilitate implementation. These funds will be treated as a receivable and settled at the PIU. Internal Control 37. Internal control comprises the whole system of control, financial or otherwise, established by management in order to (i) carry out the project activities in an orderly and efficient manner; (ii) ensure adherence to policies and procedures; (iii) ensure maintenance of complete and accurate accounting records; and (iv) safeguard the assets of the project. Regular government systems and procedures would be followed, including those relating to authorization, recording and custody controls. 38. For this project CSA will use the government’s system and procedures to ensure that policies and procedures are adhered to, payments are effected with the proper processing procedures, segregation of duty is maintained and safeguard over assets is in place. In addition to the accounting manual, the project has developed an Operation Manual where FM aspects are covered as well which will be strengthened by effectiveness. 75 39. The review of Bank financed projects (LSMS and PBS II) audit reports noted some internal control weaknesses. These include weakness in cash management (failure to count cash on a regular basis), repeated recording and posting errors, failure to settle liabilities including tax liabilities on time, long outstanding debtors, instances of ineligible expenditures. Efforts must be strengthened to ensure that these issues are given due attention in this project. The role of internal audit is important here to identify and resolve issues on a timely basis and it is agreed that internal audit of CSA will review the Bank financed projects. 40. On the other hand, CSA has a system to safeguard assets from fraud, waste and abuse although implementation of the procedures is questioned due to the above audit issues. Subsidiary records of fixed assets and stocks are kept up to date and reconciled with their respective control accounts. Physical inventories of fixed assets and stock is conducted on an annual basis. 41. Because this project has a component on infrastructure, it is important that the Project follows up on contract management issues. From FM aspect, the FMS will monitor payments and will work with other team members of the PIU to follow up, supervise on contracts. Internal Audit 42. CSA has an internal audit department composed of twelve internal auditors with different qualifications and year of experience. As per the organizational chart of CSA, the internal audit department reports directly to the General Director. Their reports will also be sent to MoFED. The management of CSA takes the necessary action on the internal audit findings. 43. There is weakness in the past where Bank financed projects have not been adequately supervised by the internal auditor of CSA. It is therefore agreed that, the internal audit department will include this project in its work program and conduct the audit accordingly. The audit will be conducted semi-annually or annually and the internal audit report will be shared with the Bank during supervisions. Financial Reporting 44. Based on MoFED’s reporting format and requirements, CSA prepares financial statements on a monthly basis for the government funds. CSA has been preparing quarterly Interim Financial Reports (IFRs) for the National strategy for the development of statistics project and Living studies measurement study (LSMS). CSA has experience in Bank financed projects and was able to submit financial reports but with significant delays. 45. For this project, CSA/PIU will prepare and submit a project IFR on a quarterly basis (following EFY) to be submitted to the World Bank within 45 days of the end of the quarter. The format of the IFR will be agreed by Negotiation. The IFR for the project will generally include: (a) a Statement of sources and uses of funds, opening and closing balances for the quarter and cumulative; (b) Statement of sources and uses of funds that shows actual expenditures. These are appropriately classified by main project activities (categories, components and sub-components). 76 They will also include an actual versus budget comparisons for the quarter and cumulative; (c) a statement on the movement of project's Designated Account including opening and closing balances and the movements (inflows and outflows (d) Notes and explanations on financial performance and (f) Other supporting schedules and documents as needed.. The IFR formats were discussed and agreed. External audit 46. The Office of Auditor General (OFAG) is the responsible auditor to audit external assisted public projects. As such the project financial statements will be audited by OFAG or an independent external auditor (that may be selected as per agreed upon procurement method from a list of auditors acceptable to audit World Bank financed project) that will be provided by OFAG). As per the Bank’s standards, the audit report, along with the management letter, will be submitted to World Bank not later than six months after the end of the fiscal year. The audit of the project will be carried out in accordance with International Standards on Auditing issued by the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC). Terms of references for the external audit will be agreed by Negotiation. 47. In accordance with the Bank’s policies, the Bank requires that the borrower disclose the audited financial statements in a manner acceptable to the Bank; following the Bank’s formal receipt of these statements from the borrower, the Bank makes them available to the public in accordance with The World Bank Policy on Access to Information. 48. There was considerable delay in submitting audit report for Bank financed project - Living studies measurement study (SMS). The audit report for the LSMS for the year ended 7 July 2013 has been submitted to the Bank in July 2013 after six months delay from the deadline. In order to avoid this delay and facilitate the audit process CSA will recruit external auditors acceptable to the Bank three months after effectiveness. Financial covenants 49. Key financial covenants include: - CSA shall submit audited project financial statements including management letter no later than six months after the close of each fiscal year. CSA submit Interim Financial Reports 45 days after the end of each calendar quarter. Supervision plan 50. Considering the nature of the project and the risk level, the Bank’s full FM supervision mission should be once a year. The supervision will review the Project’s financial management systems and capacity, including but not limited to the operation of Designated Account, evaluating quality of budgets, financial reports, statement of expenditures, internal controls, reporting and follow up of audit and mission findings. However, quarterly desk reviews on IFRs an annual review of the audit report will be conducted. Implementation supports will be provided to all stakeholders. 77 Annex 9: Benefits of Good Statistical Information Ethiopia Statistics for Results Facility Project 1. Although the benefits of high quality statistical information as a public good are obvious, it is difficult to use the traditional cost-benefit analysis to calculate the return on investment in public sector statistical projects. From an institutional point of view, quality statistics can contribute to evidence-based policy-making through five broad areas: 1) identification of issues critical to the overall poverty reduction objective; 2) informing the design and choice of policies; 3) forecasting the future; 4) monitoring policy implementation, and 5) evaluating policy impact and adjusting policies based on the findings.28 2. Statistics can also increase the transparency of the policy environment and provide reliable and cost effective information to private investors and citizens. International experience indicates that good statistics and reliable information helps attract potential private foreign investors when they are faced with alternative investment destinations. Dependable statistics are also good for the development of social capital and democratic processes. 3. Quality statistics are also important to the financial system, as according to a recent IMF study, they tend to reduce the cost of borrowing from private capital markets. The study indicates that countries that subscribe to the IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and participate in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) initiatives registered a positive impact on their sovereign borrowing in private capital markets—that is, they experienced a reduction in the launch spreads of sovereign borrowing by 0.20 to 0.50 percentage points. These positive impacts or discounts are also evident when launch yields are analyzed in sovereign bond issues.29 4. Currently Ethiopia is at an important juncture of its economic development. It has experienced record high growth and plans to maintain and expand these development efforts. Its expanding development agenda requires its ready access to a larger and broader set of statistical information. For example, Ethiopian household surveys seem to indicate variations in poverty reduction between urban and rural areas. Improved data development could help inform policy makers in adjusting and fine tuning development policies that target poverty alleviation, thereby enhancing the importance of the timely provision of statistics. For example, in the 1990s, Ghana’s Living Standard Surveys helped reveal variations in poverty trends between northern rural areas and the rest of the country, resulting in Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS) adjustments. 5. Also, timely household survey data collection via e-surveys and GIS agriculture survey tools can guide public investment decisions for making services more accessible to rural and vulnerable populations. These tools have helped international entities such as the World Food Program in Malawi to conduct Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping to select projects sites by 28 Scott, 2005, Measuring Up to the Measurement Problem, the Role of Statistics in Evidence-based Policy Making, Paris 21. 29 Cady, John, and Anthony Pellechio, 2006, Sovereign Borrowing Cost and the IMF‘s Data Standards Initiatives, IMF Working Paper, WP/06/78. 78 ranking them according to levels of vulnerability defined as exposure to risk and ability to cope with shocks. 6. Under the proposed project, the CSA, with its improved data collection and analytical skills, will be able to publish more nuanced statistics to guide social sector policies. For example, the gaps in access to public services such as education and improved water are wide between rural and urban populations. Since the proposed project will also increase policy focus on achieving MDGs, setting targets for the post 2015 agenda and helping fulfill GTP requirements, the benefits to public institutions and citizens are expected to be substantial. 79 Annex 10: National Partnership Group -- Draft Terms of Reference (ToR) Ethiopia Statistics for Results Facility Project 1. Background: Ethiopia is seeking support from the Statistics for Results Facility – Catalytic Fund administered by the World Bank and to meet its requirements it has (a) already in place a National Statistical Development Plan (NSDS); and (b) establish a multi-stakeholder group – a National Partnership Group in statistics, to promote improved collaboration and coordination in the area of statistics. The meeting of the NPG took place on 31 May 2012 with representatives from many agencies (see Table below with list of participants). 2. Ethiopia’s National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) was established in 2008/09 and originally covers the implementation period 2009/10 to 2013/14, but was amended by one more year to align with GTP to 2014/15. The NSDS incorporates 6 strategic themes to strengthen the overall National Statistical Systems (NSS), which is led by the Central Statistical Agency (CSA). Based on the NSDS themes, the SRF program concept identified three main categories of challenges. It aims to address those challenges identified in the NSDS, which are currently underfunded and/or without funding: First, there is weak institutional capacity within CSA and statistics producing Government ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs); second, there are data gaps to be filled; and third, there are coordination problems within the NSS and in its interactions with stakeholders and partners. 3. Objective: The purpose of the NPG in Ethiopia is to support and oversee the program components of the SRF activities, and more generally to provide a means to increase overall coordination in the implementation of the NSDS and strengthen the alignment and harmonization of donor support. 4. Areas of activities: The main responsibilities of the NPG are: i. To oversee and monitor the implementation of the NSDS. ii. To coordinate donor and government support to statistics and establishing joint monitoring. iii. To review, at least once a year, the efforts in capacity building in support of the NSDS in general and the SRF in particular. iv. To help measure improvements in statistical capacity and the extent to which users' needs are met, using clearly defined outputs and outcome indicators. v. To assist the CSA to identify priorities for the NSS in general, and to coordinate implementation activities of the NSDS. vi. To consider any other action needed to improve the effective functioning of the NSS in Ethiopia. vii. To help develop and agree on the activities to be supported by the Catalytic Fund program based on observed and present gaps in the implementation of the NSDS. 5. The NPG will work under the overall framework of the Statistical Law of Ethiopia (2005). 6. Members: The NPG will be co-chaired by the CSA and DfID, a lead donor in statistics in Ethiopia and active supporter of the SRF. At least on other government representative - from 80 MoFED - is a member of the Group. The NPG for Ethiopia is open to any members interested in the development of statistics either from government, development partners involved in statistics, academia and/or civil society. The first meeting of the NPG included members from the CSA and DFID as well as CGIAR, EU, IMF, Netherlands, UNDP, UNFPA, UNICEF and the World Bank. 7. Secretariat: CSA will provide secretarial services to the NPG, supported by the World Bank. 8. Meetings: The NPG will meet at least once in every 6 months, and, if needed, additionally on a virtual basis. Table with NPG Meeting Participant List May 31, 2012 Interested in Future Name Title and Institution Tel Email Meetings Samia Zekaria CSA, Director General samiaz@ethionet.et YES Kenny Osborne Resident Adviser, DFID Cell: 251-911-203080 k-osborne@dfid.gov.uk YES 251-115-515177 ext. United Nations Development Haile Kibre 34482 or +251-115- haile.kibret@undp.org YES Programme 444482 Fasika Monitoring & Evaluation 251 11 66 12 5 +251 Fasika.KELEMEWORK@eeas.eur Kelemework Manager Delegation of the 91 16 23 43911 opa.eu, European Union to Ethiopia Senior Research Fellow Ethiopia Strategy Support Seyoum Taffesse, 251 11 6 172552 Governance Division YES Alemayehu +251 11 6462922 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Population and Development Meron Tewfik Programme Officer UNFPA 251-115-444358 YES Ethiopia Monitoring and Evaluation Off 251 11 518 4162 Yumi Matsuda ymatsuda@unicef.org YES Specialist, UNICEF Cell 251 920310075 Off 251 11 5176162 zabiyhailu@imf.org Zeneganaw Abiy IMF Cell 251 0921332924 UNICEF Senior Social Policy Off: +251 11 518 4162 Roger Pearson rpearson@unicef.org Officer Cell: +251 920310075 Marta Kibur UNICEF, M&E specialist Cell: 0911876968 mkibur@unicef.org YES Off: 251115444028 Benoit Kalasa UNFPA Representative kalasa@unfpa.org YES Cell:251 911229837 UNFPA, Monitoring and Off: 2511115994327 Messay Teferi teferi@unfpa.org YES Evaluation PO Cell: 251911241583 Michael Geiger World Bank, Economist mgeiger@worldbank.org YES Mesfin Girma World Bank, Economist Cell: 251-252731 mbezawagaw@worldbank.org YES World Bank, Economist Alemayehu A. 269-267-0969 (cell) Development Economics aambel@worldbank.org YES Ambel 202-473-1880 Research Group Wendm Mekasha World Bank, PBS Cell: 251-911-767847 wmekasha@worldbank.org YES Benedetto Musillo Economic Attaché , EU Cell: 251-913-547085 Benedetto.musillo@ees.europe.eu YES Victoria Chioala PM specialist DAG/UNDP Cell: 251-911-505211 Victoria.chisala@undp.org YES NOTE: Mr. Fisseha Aberra, MoFED, has been nominated in the NPG as representative of the GOE in addition to Ms. Samia Zekarai, DG CSA 81 Letter of Endorsement by the National Partnership Group for the Proposed Project: 82 Annex 11: Team Composition Ethiopia Statistics for Results Facility Project World Bank staff who worked on the project includes: Name Title Unit Michael Geiger Senior Economist AFTP2 Waleed Haider Malik Senior Public Sector Management Specialist AFTP2 Lars Moller Lead Economist and Sector Leader (PREM) AFTP2 Grant James Cameron Manager DECDG Alexandra Bezeredi Regional Environmental and Safeguards AFTSG Advisor Andrew L. Dabalen Lead Poverty Specialist AFTPM Antoine A. Simonpietri Senior Statistician Barbro E. Hexeberg Senior Economist DECDG Alemayehu Ambel Economist DECPI Mesfin Girma Bezawagaw Economist AFTP2 Asferachew Abate Abebe Environmental specialist AFTN3 Abiy Demissie Belay FM specialist AFTME Tafesse Freminatos Abrham FM specialist (Consultant) AFTME Binyam Bedelu Procurement Specialist AFTPE Abiy Tessema Sr Operational and IT Consultant AFTP2 Hikru Kitai Sr Infrastructure Specialist Consultant Melat Assefa Planning and Facilities Design Consultant AFTP2 Senait Yifru Program Assistant AFTP2 Hanna Ketselamaryam Hailu Team Assistant AFCE3 Patricia de la Hoyes TFO Coordinator Mohammad Nadeem Legal Department LEGAM Candace Gebre HR Consultant AFTP2 Martin Buchara Team Assistant AFTP2 Misako Hiraga Gender specialist DECDG Xiao Ye Senior Economist PREM StatisticsTM Thomas Danielowitz Peer Reviewer DECDG Kenny Osborne (Invited) Peer Reviewer - External DFID Singh (Invited) Peer Reviewer IMF Yusuf Murangwa Peer Reviewer - External (Director General National Institute of Statistics - Rwanda) 83 Annex 12: Country at a Glance 84 85 86 Annex 13: Map of Ethiopia 87