PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19: MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS AND JOB PROSPECTS 1 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 December 2020 Romeo Arahan Dung Doan Matthew Dornan Alexandra Munoz Kenia Parsons Soonhwa Yi Damai Vergara-Hegi 2 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 4 ACRONYMS 6 LIST OF FIGURES 8 LIST OF TABLES 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12 1. INTRODUCTION 15 2. MACROECONOMIC CONTRACTIONS AND JOB LOSSES 18 2.1 Downside Risks Arising from Weak Global Demand and Supply Chain Disruptions 19 2.2 Weak Labor Market Conditions 22 2.3 Timely Policy Responses are Cushioning Macroeconomic Impacts 24 3. VULNERABLE POPULATIONS IN THE COVID-19 ERA AND POVERTY 27 4. UNDERSTANDING JOBS AT RISK FROM JOB VACANCY ANALYSES 35 4.1 Impact pf COVID-19 on Labor Demand 37 4.2 IT jobs in the COVID-19 Era 43 4.3 Skills Gaps in the Labor Market 46 5. EMERGING DOMESTIC JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN THE COVID-19 ERA 48 5.1 Reallocation Opportunities within Domestic Labor Markets 49 5.2 Emerging Job Opportunities 51 6. EMERGING JOB OPPORTUNITIES OVERSEAS 55 7. CONCLUSION 61 REFERENCES 65 ANNEX: AUSTRALIAN PACIFIC TRAINING COALITION 70 3 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 4 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: World Bank This report is part of a broader analytical work The team would like to thank Kim Edwards (Senior program on labor mobility in the Pacific that the World Economist, World Bank), David Gould (Program Bank has been undertaking with financial support from Leader, World Bank), Achim Schmillen (Senior the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Economist, World Bank), and the APTC for valuable Trade. The study forms part of a collaboration with the and constructive comments on earlier drafts of the Australia Pacific Training Coalition (APTC), which also report. Philip O’Keefe (Practice Manager until provided assistance with collecting and sharing September 2020) and Yasser El-Gammal (Practice secondary data on job vacancies in Pacific Island Manager, World Bank) provided overall vision and countries. guidance to the team. The report also benefited from the support of Georgetown University’s summer intern program. The report was copy edited by Angela Takats and graphically designed by Heidi Romano. 5 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 ACRONYMS 6 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: Australian Volunteers Program/Darren James APTC Australian Pacific Training Coalition COFA Compact of Free Association DESE Department of Employment, Skills and Employment FDI Foreign Direct Investment IATA International Air Transport Association ILO International Labour Organization ITU International Telecommunication Union FNPF Fiji National Provident Fund FHTA Fiji Hotel and Tourism Association FSM Federated States of Micronesia GBV Gender-based violence GDP Gross Domestic Produce LNG Liquified Natural Gas PICs Pacific Island Countries PLF Pacific Labour Facility PLS Pacific Labour Scheme PNG Papua New Guinea RSE Regional Seasonal Employer RMI Republic of the Marshall Islands SWP Seasonal Work Programme SMEs Small and medium-sized enterprises TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNCDF United Nations Capital Development Fund 7 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 LIST OF FIGURES 8 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: World Bank Figure 1. People mobility dropped in April (select locations) 16 Figure 2A. Fall in tourist arrivals (Jan-May 2020) 20 Figure 2B. Fall in visitor earnings (Jan-May 2020) 20 Figure 3. Tourism-dependent countries will be hit hard 20 Figure 4. Fiji’s bleak labor market conditions 23 Figure 5. Low internet usage in PICs, especially in PNG, Kiribati, and Solomon Islands 31 Figure 6. A substantial increase in poverty under an extreme scenario (percent of households (HH) below the poverty line – US$5.50 per day) 32 Figure 7. Share of Pacific households with access to basic public services 34 Figure 8. Changes in labor demand in May compared to February 2020 38 Figure 9. High-level qualification requirements 39 Figure 10. Vanuatu: Professionals and managers make up 70 percent of all jobs advertised post-COVID-19 40 Figure 11. Samoa: Larger reduction in the numbers of jobs in semi-skilled positions 41 Figure 12. PNG: Low demand for high- and semi-skilled workers 41 Figure 13. Samoa: Large majority of public sector jobs are permanent and in the capital city 42 Figure 14. Vanuatu: Even decline of private/public sector occupations during COVID-19 42 Figure 15. PNG: Number of job advertisements in ICT (February and May 2020) 42 Figure 16. Lower number of jobs in ICT in Fiji 43 Figure 17. Prevalence of IT jobs being advertised in Vanuatu 44 Figure 18. PNG: Mismatches between demand and supply of labor 44 Figure 19. Fiji: Most jobs required tertiary education prior- and post-COVID-19 45 Figure 20. Education preferences in vacancies not aligned with ni-Vanuatu labor supply 45 Figure 21. In PNG, work permits are mostly being issued in the construction, wholesale/retail trade, and auto repair industries 47 Figure 22. COVID-19 physical proximity score by selected major occupational groups (2020) 57 Figure 23. COVID-19 physical proximity score by selected skill level groups (2020) 57 Figure 24. Percentage change in payroll jobs by industry (14 March - 5 September 2020) 58 9 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 LIST OF TABLES 10 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: World Bank Table 1. Fiscal responses by PICs (as of July 2020) 24 Table 2. Jobs support for individuals and households in response to the COVID-19 pandemic 26 Table 3. Distribution of employment in the tourism sector by sub-sectors (percent) 50 11 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: World Bank Pacific Island Countries (PICs) face strong headwinds The crisis has hit existing vulnerable populations from the COVID-19 crisis, despite to date having particularly hard, and migrant workers and tourism- experienced few cases of COVID-19 domestically. dependent households could emerge as newly Unlike the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, this crisis is vulnerable groups. Informal workers, as well as those a combination of supply and demand shocks. with low work-from-home or high physical proximity Pandemic mitigation measures such as social service jobs, have been negatively impacted. Jobs distancing, lockdowns, school closures, and mobility that require physical proximity with customers have restrictions have disrupted labor force participation been particularly prone to disruption, and these jobs and production while also denting consumption and are often occupied by workers with lower levels of investment. Technology-driven adaptation in both education. Youth and women have been production and consumption, the timely reallocation of disproportionally affected, exacerbating existing labor between sectors and regions, along with policy inequalities in the world of work (ILO, 2020a). support, could moderate the effects of the shock. The Companies are not recruiting, particularly in the seven PICs examined in this report – Fiji, Kiribati, tourism and services sectors. For PNG, job Papua New Guinea (PNG), Samoa, Solomon Islands, advertisements contracted by 76 percent in May Tonga, and Vanuatu,1 are expected to see significant compared to February 2020. Although job vacancy declines in GDP growth in 2020.2 data includes few low-skilled jobs (a limitation of such Tourism-dependent PICs have seen a major blow to datasets in low- and middle-income contexts), the their economies. Fiji, Vanuatu, and Samoa saw a near share of semi-skilled job postings dropped stop in iinternational visitor arrivals during several substantially as a result of COVID-19, reflecting a months of the year. Efforts to revive domestic tourism disproportionate impact on jobs that require face-to- appear to have little impact on the tourism sector. face interaction or which cannot be undertaken Such contraction in tourism has resulted in remotely. Low numbers of ICT job vacancies indicate unemployment. In Vanuatu, for instance, the number potential obstacles to the digitalization of work seen of employees in the tourism industry contracted by in other regions. Mismatches between demand and about 64 percent during the COVID-19 crisis (Vanuatu supply of skilled labor, which have been exacerbated Tourism Office, April 2020). There have also been job by the impacts of COVID-19 on labor demand, point losses in other tourism-related sectors across PICs to the continued importance of investment in skills such as the retail and food service industry. development. Disruptions in donor-financed infrastructure activities, lower commodity prices, and some reductions in inward remittance flows have also contributed to the economic downturn, although lower oil import prices have offset some of these impacts to an extent. Overall, the pandemic poses tremendous downside risks to domestic labor markets. 1. Due to limitations in data and information availability, this report limits the choice of PICs to these seven countries. 2. These projections are subject to a high degree of uncertainty and will inevitably be adjusted as the situation evolves. They are highly sensitive to the assumptions that are used. 13 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Despite adverse impacts in aggregate, there are In the medium- and long-term, the focus should be on nevertheless opportunities to leverage changes in ensuring employment of those who are of working age labor market demand, both at home and abroad. The and seeking work. Training and employment services redeployment of workers from hard-hit sectors like are especially important. Policy responses that can be tourism to alternative occupations that draw on similar considered include: subsidization of reskilling and skillsets is of economic benefit and should be a upskilling (e.g., through credit and tax incentives for priority. This could be supported through measures employers to upskill their employees, especially in the such as re-training and other labor market case of micro, small and medium businesses), work- intermediation services. At the same time, the shift to study dual training systems, apprenticeship schemes, remote work is likely to have long-term ramifications and temporary wage subsidies for low-skilled for labor markets, presenting new opportunities for unemployed (especially the so-called ‘COVID-19 Pacific Islanders with requisite skills to compete in generation’ which is lacking in work experience). PIC international labor markets. Digital literacy, coupled governments should also focus on expanding labor with soft skills such as those related to persuasion, mobility opportunities for their citizens, through emotional intelligence and organization, will be training to overseas standards, investment in outreach important for harnessing such opportunities. These activities, and sound management of sending country can again be supported through training and active arrangements – including management of any labor market measures. The pandemic also presents COVID-19 related requirements. new employment opportunities for low- and semi-   skilled workers in Australia and New Zealand in the medium-term, with temporary work schemes that target Pacific Islanders providing avenues for employment. There are a range of policy responses which PICs can potentially use to help mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on employment and livelihoods. In the immediate-term, government support to affected populations is a priority. Support to both firms and workers can help cushion employment impacts through: the provision of liquidity to firms to sustain their businesses (as undertaken in PNG and Tonga); other measures aimed at helping firms to retain cash flows (e.g., tax or import duty relief in Samoa, PNG and Solomon Islands, and deferred social security contributions in Fiji); and support for retention of workers (e.g., wage subsidies in Vanuatu and paid sick leave in Fiji). Social assistance measures can help households and unemployed individuals more directly through: cash transfers (Australia, Tuvalu); scaling up existing food security programs (Fiji); cash transfers targeting informal workers (Fiji and Tonga); and unemployment benefits for formal sector workers (such as in Fiji and PNG, where these have drawn on superannuation savings). 14 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 1. INTRODUCTION 15 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: The Fred Hollows Foundation NZ/Darren James The COVID-19 pandemic is a human calamity and its FIGURE 1. negative impact on the global economy looms large, People mobility dropped in April (select locations) with a potential to deliver the deepest global recession in eight decades (World Bank, 2020a). 40 Unlike the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, this crisis is a combination of supply and demand shocks. 20 Pandemic mitigation measures (such as social distancing, lockdowns, school closures, and mobility 0 restrictions) have disrupted labor force participation -20 and production while also affecting consumption and investment. Technology-driven substitutions and -40 adaptation in both production and consumption, the -60 timely reallocation of labor between sectors and regions, along with policy support measures, could -80 moderate the effects of the shock. Even with these -100 measures, the world is forecast to see an 3/1 3/8 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/5 4/19 4/26 5/3 5/10 5/17 5/24 5/31 unprecedented GDP contraction in 2020 and a reversal in the progress of poverty reduction (World Retail and recreation Workplaces Bank, 2020a). Estimated working-hour losses amount to 495 million full-time equivalent jobs Source: Google Mobility Data. globally in the second quarter of 2020 (ILO, 2020a). 40 PICs face strong headwinds from these global The pandemic poses tremendous downside risks economic developments, despite to date having to20domestic labor markets. Public health measures experienced few cases of COVID-19 domestically. (e.g., lockdowns and social distancing) have stopped 0 The seven PICs examined in this report – Fiji, Kiribati, workers from getting to workplaces. People mobility PNG, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu -20worksites in Fiji nearly disappeared in April to – are expected to see significant declines in GDP (Figure 1) and is yet to fully recover to January levels. -40 growth in 2020. A near-disappearance of tourism Disruptions in global and local supply chains and a fall has been the major blow to these economies, 40 in -60global and local consumption have dampened labor particularly in tourism-dependent Fiji, Samoa, Tonga demand. The unemployment impact is likely to be 20 -80 and Vanuatu. Other downside risks include lower salient in economies with pre-existing high levels of commodity prices (Solomon Islands and PNG), unemployment and with a large share of employment 0 -100 disrupted global supply chains (Solomon Islands), in sectors directly impacted by travel restrictions and -20 a reduction in inward remittances (Tonga, Vanuatu social distancing measures (Aaronson and Alba, 2020). and Samoa), and disruptions in donor-financed -40 The crisis has hit existing vulnerable populations hard. infrastructure activities (Kiribati). Furthermore, PICs Three out of four tourism-related jobs are informal in -60 have limited policy space to mitigate the impacts of the Asia-Pacific region (ILO, 2020b). Informal workers, COVID-19 (World Bank, 2020a). Lower oil import -80 including the self-employed, are more likely to lose prices will offset some of these impacts to some income sources owing to lockdowns and declines in -100 extent. tourism. Those with low work-from-home or high 3/ physical proximity service jobs are being affected by social distancing requirements, as seen in the US (Mongey et al, 2020). These workers tend to be less educated and have few assets to buffer income losses. Youth and women are also being disproportionately affected, deteriorating existing inequalities in the world of work (ILO, 2020a). 16 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Migrants from PICs, and their families, are likely to Policy measures and development assistance are emerge as a vulnerable group during the COVID-19 moderating the labor market and poverty effects of crisis. International migration, primarily to Australia the crisis. PIC governments have rolled out fiscal and New Zealand, provides employment and higher measures to support firms, unemployed individuals, income earning opportunities. Social distancing and households, but scaled-up spending on measures introduced in these countries in response healthcare in response to COVID-19 and counter- to the pandemic have caused difficulties for migrant cyclical spending will leave limited fiscal resources workers who are generally not in a position to work to support employment retention and creation. remotely or telecommute. This is particularly the case Development assistance could meet fiscal gaps, for low- and semi-skilled workers who now face given the inability of PICs (aside from Fiji and PNG) heightened unemployment risks. There is also the to raise capital in international credit markets issue of prospective migrants who have been unable (Annex). to leave for destination countries owing to border This paper aims to assess the economic impacts closures3 and could now fall into unemployment. of COVID-19 on PICs, with an emphasis on labor All of these factors will result in a loss of income market effects. As mentioned, seven countries among migrant households, including lower have been selected for analysis, taking into account remittance income. data availability. It should be noted that up to date country-level employment data has been difficult to Even as mobility resumes domestically, the re- obtain in the short period over which this brief was opening of borders will take some time. Labor developed. Projections to date have largely been of mobility opportunities for Pacific Island workers have a macroeconomic nature, and from these projections been affected by the closure of borders, including estimates of job losses have been derived for each those of Australia and New Zealand. Employer Pacific Island country. recruitment of overseas workers is likely to remain altered even once borders reopen, with potential for This work is part of our ongoing analytical work reduced demand in certain industries owing to high program on Pacific labor mobility. It complements rates of domestic unemployment, low levels of two pieces of work: one that investigates the impact consumer demand, and political issues relating to of COVID-19 on employment of Pacific migrants and substitution of foreign workers with domestic labor the welfare of families of migrant workers; and a as a result of travel constraints and quarantine wider study that assesses ways in which overseas requirements. It is expected over the medium- to opportunities for Pacific workers could be long-term that demand for Pacific seasonal workers broadened and deepened.   in the agriculture sector will continue to be high, given the effects of COVID-19 on alternative groups of workers (particularly backpackers from overseas). However, it remains unclear when labor mobility programs that employ Pacific Islanders as seasonal workers will fully resume, and what portion of higher costs associated with charter flights and any quarantine arrangements will be borne by workers. 3. Even as demand for migrant workers declines in some sectors as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, shortages are arising in other sectors, such as agriculture, in which temporary and seasonal migrants typically work. These workers have had their employment affected by travel restrictions. 17 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 2. MACROECONOMIC CONTRACTIONS AND JOB LOSSES 18 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: Darren James PICs are expected to see unprecedented economic 2.1. Downside Risks Arising from disruptions from COVID-19 in 2020. These will be Weak Global Demand and particularly pronounced in those countries which Supply Chain Disruptions have already experienced setbacks, such as Tropical Cyclone Harold (Fiji and Vanuatu) and the measles A standstill in tourism has been the major blow to outbreak in the fourth quarter of 2019 (Samoa). most PIC economies.4 In Fiji, Samoa and Vanuatu, According to projections by the World Bank as of tourism is a prime source of employment and foreign September, Fiji, Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu are exchange earnings (Figure 3). These countries saw projected to see a double-digit contraction in GDP near-zero visitor arrivals from April to July (Figure 2a), in 2020, by 24.7 percent, 12.5 percent, 15.1 percent indicating that tourism earnings evaporated for these and 13.1 percent respectively; and GDP of Solomon months (Figure 2b). Fiji is likely to see a loss of Islands is also forecasted to contract by 7.7 percent F$1.4 billion (US$650 million) in tourism earnings in 2020. In terms of outlooks in 2021, Solomon (ANZ Research, 2020). Such declines will cause Islands could see a robust recovery while the growth significant macroeconomic contractions for countries. prospects for tourism-dependent Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, Tourism recoveries will be slow due to continued and Vanuatu remain uncertain (World Bank, 2020c). border closures and quarantine measures. Most PICs Signs of subdued domestic demand in PICs have have implemented border closures for travelers from emerged. In Fiji, cement production and electricity COVID-19 affected countries, together with 14/28- consumption continued to contract by 22 percent day self-quarantine measures and the complete and 8 percent, respectively, year-on-year in August abolition of cruise ship tourism. With such measures, due to weak demand (Reserve Bank of Fiji, tourism is likely to be non-existent, as most holiday September 2020). Further downside risks in PICs tourists will be unable to afford a 14/28-day self- depend on the duration of COVID-19 containment quarantine. measures, monetary and fiscal measures put in place by respective authorities to moderate the effects, and the global development of the pandemic. Resource-dependent PNG has also been hit hard. Real GDP growth is expected to fall to -3.3 percent in 2020, after a record 6 percent growth in 2019 (World Bank, 2020c). Weaker aggregate demand and less favorable terms of trade contributed to lower growth in 2020, coupled with disputes with international investors over ongoing and new resource projects. The impact of low Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) prices on export revenue is relatively muted due to the prevalence of long-term supply contracts. The non-resource economy has been hit by lower domestic demand due to lockdown measures affecting the supply of domestic services. Unlike other PICs, PNG’s economy is less dependent on tourism earnings and remittance inflows, softening adverse effects from declining global demand. A resilient recovery will require foreign investment in 4. The global economic impact of COVID-19 on tourism is projected new resource projects – as well as strengthening to be five times as great as the impact of the 2008 Global Financial macroeconomic management, protecting the Crisis, and is estimated in 2020 to result in 100.8 million job vulnerable, and supporting firms and jobs in the losses globally and a 2.9 percentage point increase in the global unemployment rate as a consequence of travel and tourism job informal sector (World Bank, 2020c). losses (WTTC, 2020). In May, revenue international passenger- kilometers dropped by 98 percent, compared to the same month in 2019 (IATA, May 2020). 19 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 FIGURE 2A. FIGURE 2B. Fall in tourist arrivals (Jan-May 2020) Fall in visitor earnings (Jan-May 2020) 0% 30 Vanuatu 25 -20% Samoa 20 Fiji -40% 15 -60% 10 -80% 5 -100% 0 Jan Feb March April May Jan Feb March April May Fiji Samoa Vanuatu Samoa (Tala million, RHS) Sources: Reserve Bank of Fiji, Reserve Bank of Vanuatu, Central Bank of Samoa. FIGURE 3. Tourism-dependent countries will be hit hard 20 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Even after travel restrictions have been lifted, tourism Falling commodity prices are expected to hurt is likely to be sluggish, with people reluctant to travel resource-sector-dependent economies to some internationally for fear of infection (depending on the extent. Solomon Islands, where logging accounts existence of a vaccine, and changes in behaviors). for more than two-thirds of total exports, saw a dip There are signs of recovery in tourism, but they are in log exports in April – with a strong rebound in primarily local, as tourists shift their focus from May 2020. Falls in log exports have the potential to international to domestic travel (as suggested by the cause economy-wide effects – including impacts on International Air Transport Association). Furthermore, manufacturing, transport, and trade (ADB, 2020). group tours are unlikely to restart (McKinsey, 2020). Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) prices fell due to weak demand, along with other energy-related prices Remittances have downside risks. Remittances over the past three months, but PNG, whose LNG constitute an important source of household production is a key driver of economic growth, is consumption in Tonga (equivalent to about one-third likely to be shielded from such price falls, given its of its GDP in 2019), Samoa (about 15 percent), Kiribati long-term LNG supply contracts with Asian buyers, (about 10 percent) and Fiji (about 5 percent). Samoa such as Japan, China and Taiwan China (World Bank, experienced sharp contractions in monthly remittance 2020f). inflows (in their respective local currency) in March and April 2020, compared to the same months in 2019, but Supply chain disruptions and travel restrictions will started to see recoveries from May onwards. Fiji, on cause delays in infrastructure projects that rely on the other hand, saw recoveries only in July. Recoveries imports of raw materials and inflows of workers may be partly explained by a shift from carrying cash (World Bank, 2020b). Donor-supported infrastructure back home, to sending money through remittance projects are an important source of economic growth service providers (owing to travel restrictions), as well in Kiribati, and infrastructure investment forms part of as depreciations of local currencies against the government strategies to support growth in response Australian dollar and other hard currencies. Cumulative to the COVID-19 crisis (ADB, 2020). Supply chain remittance inflows for the first seven months of 2020 disruptions may dampen the fisheries industry in showed resilience to the COVID-19 crisis – with a Solomon Islands and Tonga, while its effects could varying degree of increases (year-on-year, by 7 be mitigated by higher fish prices to some extent.5 percent in Samoa, 2 percent in Tonga and 0.25 This could threaten revenues from fishing licenses percent in Fiji). Nevertheless, there are downside risks in Kiribati, and interrupt manufacturing, as well as due to the Pacific diaspora’s unemployment risks in wholesale and retail trade in PNG which relies on destination countries and limited new deployment of import goods. Pacific workers to Australia and New Zealand owing to travel restrictions. Experience from the Global Financial Crisis suggests impacts on remittances can be delayed. 5. Solomon Islands saw a decline of fish catch by 42 percent in April 2020, according to the Central Bank of Solomon Islands; Tonga saw a decline of marine exports by 22 percent (mostly tuna) in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the same period of the previous year. While global fish prices rose in April compared to March 2020, presumably benefiting from a boosted demand of canned fish products during the lockdown phase, the fisheries industry has faced headwinds from port closures which have disrupted transshipment and supply provisions, and from travel restrictions which posed difficulties with hiring and replacing crew. 21 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 2.2. Weak Labor Market Conditions New recruitment intentions have fallen. In March 2020, they fell by 60 percent in Tonga and by nearly 30 Job losses related to COVID-19 are unprecedented. percent in Fiji, compared to the same month in 2019. Some 115,000 jobs are at risk6 in Fiji – equivalent to Fiji saw no improvement in new hiring to August a third of the total labor force7 or about two-thirds of (Figure 4b), recording nearly a 50 percent contraction paid employees in 2018. ‘Jobs at risk’ encompasses in vacancy advertisements on an annual basis (RBF, unemployment, reduced working hours, and ‘on-leave’ 2020), presumably because businesses, especially status without pay. Unemployment benefit claims in in the tourism industry, were temporarily closed, the Fiji National Provident Fund (FNPF), under deferring investment decisions or cancelling planned COVID-19 withdrawal schemes, rose sharply in May expansions (Figure 4c). PNG saw a sharp drop of and were sustained in June at 85,959 (Figure 4a). In 76 percent in job vacancies in May, compared to PNG, a quarter of workers who had been working February 2020.11 In Samoa, new labor demand in before the crisis, reported not working in June 2020 May was primarily in the public sector. (Himelein et al., 2020).8 Results from the Employment Survey COVID-19 commissioned by the Employers’ Federation of PNG also highlight the impact: 7 percent of the total workforce were released due to the pandemic; 16 percent of firms responded that they either terminated employment contracts or temporarily stood them down; 9 and 11 percent of the total workforce surveyed were on reduced working hour arrangements to adjust to COVID-19 impacts on production. The economy of Vanuatu is projected to decline 13.1 percent this year, resulting in the loss of roughly 21,000 jobs.10 6. Based on ILO workplace survey to assess the impact of COVID-19 on employment and business, undertaken together with the Fiji Ministry of Employment: https://www.fijivillage.com/news/Initial- numbers-show-115000-workers-affected-by-COVID-19--ILO-x5r8f4/ 7. According to the 2015/16 Employment and Unemployment Survey, 346,214 persons aged 15 and above were in the labor force and 167,300 (63.5 percent) were employed in the formal sector. 8. According to the World Bank’s High Frequency survey data collected during June 18 through to July 3, 2020. 9. The survey was sent to 200 companies on April 24, 2020 with a response rate of 52.5 percent. Termination was most used for casual or temporary staff (7 percent), while in some instances it was a result of redundancy (3 percent). Stand down provisions such as using extended leave or granting leave without pay (5 percent) or closing of operations despite formally holding employees in payroll (1 percent) were also utilized during this period. 10. Islands Business. (2020). “Fiji faced with a potential US$608 million tourism loss”. April 2020. Available at: https://www.islandsbusiness. com/breaking-news/item/2764-fiji-faced-with-a-potential-us-608- million-tourism-loss.html 11. This is based on the number of job vacancy advertisements and therefore does not take into account any seasonality factors in the labor market. 22 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 FIGURE 4. Fiji’s bleak labor market conditions (a) Unemployment claims nearly tripled (number (b) ...and new recruitment fell (percent change of unemployment withdrawals from FNPF) in advertised job vacancies, YoY) 100 0 80 -20 Thousands 60 -40 40 -60 20 0 -80 2019 total Apr May Jun Aug-19 May Jun Jul Aug Source: FNPF, Reserve Bank of Fiji. Source: FNPF, Reserve Bank of Fiji. (c) Fijian businesses, especially tourism-focused (d) Jobs at risk are predominently in the toursim ones, cancelled planned expansions industry (percent of survey respondents) (percent of survey respondents) 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Hibernating Deferred Cancelled planned Reduce pay Upaid leave Reduction Reducion in investment upgrades, expansions for workers for workers in staffing hours of decisions or improvements operations Non-tourism focused businesses Non-tourism focused businesses Tourism focused businesses Tourism focused businesses Source: IFC (2020), Fiji COVID-19 Business Survey, July. Source: IFC (2020), Fiji COVID-19 Business Survey, July. 23 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Jobs in tourism-related industries are at high risk of 2.3. Timely Policy Responses are reduced wages, unpaid leave, dismissal, or reduced Cushioning Macroeconomic Impacts work hours (Figure 4d). According to the Fiji Hotel and Tourism Association, the COVID-19 outbreak has led PIC governments have rolled out economic stimulus to the closure of 279 hotels and resorts and left 25,000 packages to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, workers without employment (ILO, 2020b). Job losses beyond supply-side interventions on healthcare. These in the tourism-related transportation sector are fiscal support packages range from 2.6 percent of evidenced by applications for FNPF unemployment GDP in Solomon Islands, to as much as 8.7 percent of benefits by members of the taxi industry, and job GDP in Fiji (Table 1). Some of them are to be financed losses within the aviation workforce (Fiji’s national by both governments and donors (e.g., Fiji, PNG, carrier cut employment by half as of May). According Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu). Immediate policy to the Samoa Hotels Association, 50 hotels are closed, responses focused on spending on healthcare and and some 500 workers have been laid off. In PNG, the containment measures (e.g., spending equivalent to tourism sector saw 91 percent of bookings for 2020 1.1 percent of GDP in Solomon Islands, and to a third being cancelled (around 1,200 job losses).12 In of the package in Tonga) (IMF, 2020). These large fiscal stimulus packages are likely to contribute to the Vanuatu, where the tourism sector accounts for widening of fiscal gaps. Policies will be needed to 35 percent of total employment, there has been a ensure that fiscal buffers are increased to safeguard 70 percent reduction in full-time employment and a debt sustainability. 33 percent reduction in part-time employment linked to the tourism industry (Vanuatu Tourism Office, 2020). This puts many micro-businesses such as arts and crafts vendors, dependent on foreign clientele for income, at risk.13 On the other hand, essential work has been relatively TABLE 1. insulated from the pandemic, which could help to Fiscal responses by PICs (as of July 2020) mitigate job losses and reduce long-term damage to livelihoods through cross-sector reallocation of labor. A recent ILO report, using global data, identifies FISCAL STIMULUS PACKAGE the following sectors as having low risk of job loss: healthcare and social work, education, public Country Amount % of GDP administration, defense; compulsory social security; and utility. Agriculture, fishing and forestry are Fiji F$1 billion 8.7 categorized as having low to medium risk (ILO, 2020c). Although the lack of sectoral diversification in PICs Kiribati $A 15.5 million 7.5 limits cross-sector absorption capacity, there are some possibilities, particularly in larger countries, PNG K 1.8billion 2.2 like Fiji, with more developed labor markets. Some examples are seen in the US: a retail firm thriving Samoa 1/ SAT 149.4 million 6.8 from e-commerce during lockdown struck a bilateral labor reallocation agreement to absorb laid-off Solomon Islands SI$319 million 2.6 workers from an accommodation firm. Tonga 1/ T$97.4 million 8.8 Vanuatu VT 4.2 billion 5.5 12. https://www.businessadvantagepng.com/tourism-takes-a-tumble- report-finds-90-per-cent-of-2020-bookings-wiped-out-in-papua- Source: Respective governments, IMF. new-guinea/ Note: 1/ includes both the first and second phase packages. 13. Vanuatu National Statistics Office. (2020). International Visitor Arrival – February 2020. Available at: http://vnso.gov.vu/index.php/ economic-statistics/tourism-news 24 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Most PIC governments have introduced fiscal Relief packages are lacking direct employment- measures to provide liquidity to businesses and support measures. To foster retention of workers, individuals which support employment indirectly. as commonly adopted by advanced economies, These measures are as follows: injecting cash into wage subsidies are being provided to keep workers firms through loan and credit line programs (e.g., employed in firms (Vanuatu) and non-essential public PNG allocating more than 10 percent of the stimulus jobs (Solomon Islands) (Table 2). Other employment- package for this type of support, targeting small and support measures that have been used in other medium-sized enterprises); one-time cash grants (to contexts include: (i) employment promotion through SMEs in Vanuatu); retaining cashflows such as loan training (Korea) and traineeships (Singapore); payment deferrals (Fiji, Samoa); tax and import duty incentives for agriculture work (Italy) and job matching reductions/exemptions (Fiji, Samoa, Solomon Islands, (UAE); (ii) adapting labor market regulations to enable Vanuatu); utility payment deferrals (Solomon Islands); telework arrangements and suspend firing procedures and social contribution deferrals (Tonga) (Table 2).14 (Italy); and (iii) subsidizing employment with reduced work hours (Germany). As part of recovery packages, Some support has targeted the hard-hit tourism some PIC governments are supporting large industry. Most notably, the Fijian government has construction projects or advance-planned recently unveiled, as part of the 2020/21 budget, infrastructure projects which will create new jobs and a fiscal measure to provide tourism rebates to the provide opportunities for workers who lost jobs during first 150,000 visitors,15 and a regulatory action to the crisis (Fiji, PNG and Solomon Islands). streamline processes to create a conducive business environment and attract foreign investments (Fiji During COVID-19, social assistance programs have Ministry of Economy, 2020). The tourism and supported household livelihoods. Many countries have hospitality industries have benefitted from targeted employed cash transfer programs; about a third of tax exemptions (Fiji), import duty exemptions (Tonga) COVID-19 policy responses across countries are a and a moratorium on pension contributions (Samoa). type of cash transfer (Carranza et al. 2020). In PICs, cash transfers were targeted to informal workers (Fiji), Unemployment benefit schemes are providing income pensioners (Samoa), and existing social assistance protection to workers who have lost jobs. Fiji, PNG recipients (Tonga) (Table 2). Fiji introduced food and Tonga have implemented unemployment benefit security measures, including an agriculture response schemes for formal sector workers, leveraging package and a new Farm Support package. Vanuatu superannuation funds (Table 2). Fiji’s unemployment adopted similar measures to Japan and Hong Kong, benefits target workers in the hospitality sector. In offering a one-off cash payment to the whole addition, Fiji offers debt payment deferrals to the population (Carranza et al. 2020). While not seen in newly unemployed. Notably, Fiji has introduced a PICs, other countries (the US and Korea) rolled out one-off cash transfer scheme for informal workers quasi-cash transfers such as purchase vouchers whose cash income has been threatened due to (e-vouchers) to address food security. These vouchers lockdowns and the halt in tourism. are highly countercyclical – with a multiplier of 1.79 (Carranza et al, 2020). 14. Extensive and on-going lists of government interventions in response to COVID-19 can be found at the IMF Policy Tracker (https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses- to-COVID-19) and https://www.ugogentilini.net/ 15. To provide a one-time travel stipend, around US$185 per passenger, to pay part of their tourism packages (including flights, hotels and food). Accessed at https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/ pacific-news/421477/fiji-govt-unveils-us1-point-7-billion-budget. 25 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 TABLE 2. Jobs support for individuals and households in response to the COVID-19 pandemic TYPE OF INTERVENTION JOBS MEASURES Labor market measures - Wage subsidies to retain workers (Solomon Islands (for non-essential public servants), Tonga and Vanuatu) Income protection for - Debt payment deferrals for the unemployed (Fiji) the unemployed - Unemployment benefits (Fiji, Kiribati and PNG) - Hardship allowance (Tonga) - One-off cash transfers to informal workers (Fiji) Social insurance - Paid sick leave (Fiji) - Deferrals/reduction of social security contributions (Fiji, Samoa, Tonga Social assistance - One-off special pension (Samoa) - Scaling up existing social assistance (Tonga) - Utility wavers/reduction (Fiji, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga) - Tuition exemptions (Tonga) Source: World Bank staff compilations, Gentilini et al (July 2020). 26 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 3. VULNERABLE POPULATIONS IN THE COVID-19 ERA AND POVERTY 27 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: Darren James While the COVID-19 outbreak affects all segments Women of the population, its impact can exacerbate existing The pandemic poses high socioeconomic risks for socioeconomic inequality, with the social impact of women. There have been very few policy responses the pandemic particularly detrimental to members in PICs that are gender-specific, despite a number of vulnerable and marginalized groups. of risks. As frontline pandemic responders within the Informal Workers healthcare system, women are at increased risk to Most employment in PICs is informal, which includes infection, according to a rapid gender analysis of the self-employed as well as individuals working in COVID-19 in the Pacific (Damon et al., 2020). At the informal firms. In PNG, about four out of five workers same time, there is also a need for the continuity of are estimated to be involved in informal employment, other crucial healthcare services, including maternal including subsistence agriculture. The tourism industry health. in Fiji is reported to employ 120,000 workers, but Women are primary care providers in the Pacific. The many of those employed reside in the informal sector, closure of schools and childcare centers has had a with the number of ‘paid employees’ in the industry significant impact on mothers as they face increased only about 32,000 in 2018 (or about one-fourth). pressure to meet domestic responsibilities during the Informal sector employment is particularly prevalent economic downturn – especially in terms of food among youth and women. In PNG, for example, only security and accessing necessary childcare (Damon 2 percent of youth are employed in the formal sector et al., 2020). (Jones and McGavin, 2015). In PICs, women are overrepresented in many sectors Informal workers are more likely to lose their jobs but and jobs that have been most affected by the are unlikely to access social insurance. Unlike formal economic downturn associated with COVID-19, such wage workers, informal workers do not have labor as retail and hospitality (Pacific Women Leaders, contracts. A prolonged period of no cash income 2020). In PNG, female heads of households are more would put these workers and their families’ likely to have stopped working since the outbreak due subsistence at risk (Schmillen, 2020), as they have no to business closures (Himelein et al., 2020). access (or limited, at best) to social insurance (such as paid sick leave, severance pay or unemployment The pandemic has exacerbated levels of domestic benefits). Government relief packages fall short of violence against women and girls – both at home and reaching this population as informal workers and in the workplace – in a region with already alarming businesses are not registered. gender-based violence (GBV) statistics.16 More time at home due to social distancing measures has put Measures targeting the informal worker population women and girls at an increased risk of facing violence could prevent them from falling into poverty during the (WGEA, 2020). pandemic. Several PICs have implemented such measures with limited scope. For example, in Fiji, a one-off cash transfer was provided to informal workers in lockdown areas who held a street trader or hawker license, and to those who tested positive for COVID-19. In Tonga, a one-off payment to informal workers adversely affected by COVID-19 was provided on the basis of a recommendation from local government officials. Globally, it is estimated (albeit conservatively) that about 136.7 million informal workers have been reached by cash-based programs during the pandemic (Gentilini et al., 2020). 16. To take one recent example, Kiribati’s Social Development Indicator Survey (2018-19) found that two-thirds of i-Kiribati women aged 15–49, who were married or partnered, have experienced intimate partner violence – and over 50 percent had experienced such violence in the last year. 28 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Youth The social impact of this issue is especially relevant Many of the socioeconomic consequences of the for PICs, given their large youth populations and high outbreak will have a disproportionate impact on youth rates of youth unemployment. In the countries in our (aged 15-24), while the health impacts of COVID-19 study, the impacts of COVID-19 have led to lower are felt most acutely amongst older adults. The impact youth participation in the formal sector due to reduced of COVID-19 on youth employment outcomes will job opportunities in the immediate term. This is likely compound the long-term effects on human capital to create barriers to human capital accumulation over development (UN, 2020). The global pandemic poses time. Considering the long-term implications, the a serious threat to the livelihoods and economic combined impact of COVID-19 on educational and opportunities of youth in a region where they are employment opportunities for the young labor force already at greater risk of unemployment. In Fiji, for in PICs could translate into a significant loss of future instance, youth unemployment in 2015/16 was over productivity. For countries like PNG, where survey 18 percent, compared to 5 percent for the broader data has suggested a formal sector employment population17 (ILO, 2020a). rate of just 2 percent for those aged 15-24, the loss of job skills and work experience due to the The nature of youth employment contributes to this economic impacts of the outbreak could have lasting risk, as high rates of informal and precarious repercussions for the labor market (Jones and Mc- employment make young workers particularly Gavin, 2015). Furthermore, the impact of COVID-19 vulnerable to job loss. This reality is evidenced in the on youth employment also threatens to widen gender United States, where young workers comprise nearly gaps in PICs, where employment rates for young a quarter of workers in industries at high risk of women were already significantly lower than those COVID-19 impact, leaving them disproportionately of their male counterparts.18 susceptible to virus-related layoffs (NW et al., 2020). In the UK, evidence suggests that the economic Fiji has high youth unemployment and the so-called impact of COVID-19 is highly likely to increase ‘Generation COVID’ faces dire employment prospects. income inequality between youth workers and those Feedback from employer groups suggests that aged 40-55, with 69 percent of workers aged under employers are reluctant to hire recent Technical and 30 reporting working fewer hours than usual and Vocational Education Training (TVET) graduates, 58 percent reporting a drop in earnings, compared despite job vacancies, given concerns about lack to 49 percent and 36 percent of workers aged 40-55 of work experience and gaps in skillsets relevant respectively (Adams-Prassl et al., 2020). to employment, including soft skills such as work ethic or problem solving. This challenge is likely Entering the workforce during a recession can have to be exacerbated in the current crisis, as high lasting negative effects on socioeconomic status, unemployment can influence higher skilled or more health, and mortality, in addition to job and income experienced workers to accept lower wage jobs loss as a result of the economic downturn. The (negative compensative wage differential), reducing harmful effects of starting a career in a depressed even further the chances of unemployed youth finding labor market have been found to be strongest for work or gaining work experience. those without a college degree, meaning that high school graduates and dropouts are likely to suffer the largest loss of income (Schwandt, 2019). Past experience in the UK and the US reveals that graduates entering the labor market during recessions suffer persistently lower employment probability and earnings 5-10 years after their graduation (Johnson 2020). 17. According to data from Fiji Islands Bureau of Statistics and ILO. 18. In Fiji, the gender gap for youth employment is significantly wider than that of the general population, with a female unemployment rate of 25.9 percent compared to 14.1 percent for males (an 11.8 percentage point difference). 29 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Migrant Workers Education and Inequality PIC labor migrants and their families are likely to As with gender, the impacts of COVID-19 on education emerge as a vulnerable group during the COVID-19 are likely to further exacerbate inequality. COVID-19 crisis. Labor migrants are generally not in a position measures and their impact on education may not to work remotely or telecommute, particularly in the only cause loss of learning in the short-term, but also case of low- and semi-skilled workers, and for this have the potential to diminish economic opportunities reason face heightened unemployment risks due over the long-term by reducing human capital to the pandemic. This is evidenced by Australian accumulation. The adverse effects of COVID-19 on government measures which allow unemployed education will be felt disproportionately among the temporary labor migrants to withdraw unemployment poorest households, where budget constraints may benefits from their superannuation savings, and match keep children out of school even after schools reopen. workers under the Pacific Labour Scheme (PLS) with The economic impacts of COVID-19, including new employers where existing employment has unemployment and income loss, can impede ceased due to COVID-19 (Moroz et al., 2020). households’ ability to meet the costs of education Prospective migrants might have been unable to leave and spur the decision to remove children (particularly for destination countries owing to border closures19 girls) from school (World Bank, 2020d). In PNG, where and could fall into unemployment. Some seasonal all levels of schooling have associated fees, a recent workers whose contracts ended in destination high frequency phone survey found that 52 percent of countries have been left stranded because of travel households have reduced the number of children that restrictions barring their ability to return home (World attend school as a way to cope with COVID-19 related Bank, 2020b). International flights to PICs are now shocks (Himeline et al., 2020). severely limited, and PIC governments have been Barriers to delivering distance education could reduce forced to arrange special repatriation flights to return learning opportunities for children. PNG identified, migrant workers. through a rapid assessment by the World Bank, that Less remittance income means less household the majority of schools in the country face significant consumption. Many households in the Pacific rely barriers to delivering remote learning and most on remittance income to finance consumption. Any students had very limited access to basic learning reduction in such income will be especially felt in materials. For vulnerable students, time out of school Tonga, Vanuatu, and Samoa, where engagement in may not only translate into fewer opportunities for labor mobility programs is an important source of learning, but also present economic challenges for employment (14.7 percent, 8.1 percent, and 6 percent families unable to find childcare or adequate food in of the total labor force in each of these countries the absence of school meals (World Bank, 2020d). participated in a labor mobility program in 2019). In One channel through which COVID-19 clearly impacts other regions, some countries have implemented inequality is the digital divide; the unequal diffusion relief packages which target returned migrants (e.g., of computer technology and high-speed internet in unemployment benefits in Moldova and a one-off households creates differences in the ability to cash transfer in the Philippines). Tonga has provided continue learning and working in the face of social one-off support payments to households with a family distancing measures (Chiou and Tucker, 2020). member overseas. A number of migrant-receiving countries have introduced inclusive support packages that encompass migrant workers (e.g., employment retention subsidies in Korea and cash-transfers for the unemployed in Ireland). 19. Even as demand for migrant workers declines in some sectors as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, shortages are arising in other sectors, such as agriculture, in which temporary and seasonal migrants typically work but cannot access due to travel restrictions. 30 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Countries have introduced creative solutions to deliver Poverty education to students remotely. The PICs in our study The pandemic is likely to reverse recent trends have relatively low rates of internet access (Figure 5). in poverty reduction, especially among tourism- Some PICs have turned to the use of more accessible dependent households. For vulnerable households forms of ICT – including radio and television – to reach that lack the financial resources to buffer this out-of-school students. In April, the Fiji Ministry of temporary loss of income, this pressure increases the Education, Heritage and Arts provided supplementary risk of being pushed into poverty. In PNG, job losses radio programs delivered through the Schools have been highest among the bottom 40 percent of Broadcasting Unit and the Fiji Broadcasting the wealth distribution, after adjusting for household Corporation. In PNG, where children’s access to education levels. Job losses have also been high television and radio is limited, the country’s among households in the middle quintile, with the educational continuity strategy prioritized the risk being that this shock could push such households distribution of physical home learning materials to into poverty – creating a ‘new poor’ (Himelein et al., ensure education continued during the pandemic. 2020). For Fiji, Samoa, and Tonga, simulations on As PIC governments develop long-term strategies the impact of COVID-19 on household consumption for the sector, lessons learned from the impact of reveal significant increases in poverty: in an adverse COVID-19 will be useful for building education scenario measured by a 25 percent reduction of systems that are more resilient to future disruptions. annual consumption, poverty could increase by 20 In the Caribbean, governments have struck a deal percent, on average, and more than three-fourths of with telecommunication companies to provide free households in the tourism industry in Tonga could fall internet access to households with children during into poverty (Figure 6). the pandemic. FIGURE 5. Low internet usage in PICs, especially in PNG, Kiribati, and Solomon Islands Internet usage (% of population, 2017) Internet usage (% of population, 2017) 11 20 30 40 50 Internet usage (% of population, 2017) 11 12 15 26 34 41 50 Map based on longitude (generated) and latitude (generated). Color shows details about sum of internet usage (% of population, 2017). Size shows sum of internet usuage (% of population, 2017). The marks are labeled by country. 31 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 FIGURE 6. A substantial increase in poverty under an extreme scenario (percent of households (HH) below the poverty line – US$5.5 per day)* 80 60 40 20 0 HHs in HHs in Other HHs in HHs in Other HHs in HHs in Other tourism transport HHs tourism transport HHs tourism transport HHs FIJI SAMOA TONGA Baseline 25 percent drop in HH consumption Source: World Bank, 2020e. * HHs in the tourism industry includes those engaged in the accommodation and food sectors. 32 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 In terms of consumption, subsistence agriculture While rural households may be more insulated from may act as a buffer for household welfare during the the direct impact of COVID-19 shocks, the multi- economic downturn. Compared to other sources of dimensional poverty consequences could still be high. livelihood and income, subsistence agriculture is In urban areas on main islands, where wages and likely to remain resilient to the impacts of COVID-19. business activity are the most important contributors Experience during the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis to income, the impact of COVID-19 on wages and showed that millions of urban workers – laid off from employment is easier to identify. In rural areas on outer construction, manufacturing and services – returned islands, reliance on subsistence activity may insulate to their villages from which they had earlier migrated households from variation in the market forces that in search of better jobs (Warr, 2020). Anecdotal affect wage income and formal sector livelihoods. reports suggest the same patterns of movement in However, given the increasing penetration of the cash the Pacific in response to COVID-19. For instance, economy into these areas, many rural households about 100,000 Fijians employed in the tourism sector depend on income tied to COVID-19 impact channels are reported to currently have few other choices but to to purchase necessities such as fuel, food items, return to farming on their land.20 During the fluctuation school fees, and clothing. Additionally, lack of its mineral boom, agriculture also remained the of access to basic utilities and critical connectivity mainstay of PNG’s economy (ILO, 2019). infrastructure (Figure 7) is likely to leave rural households disconnected from services that are Movement of urban labor to low-yield, labor-intensive critical at a time when supply chain disruptions and agriculture activities will nevertheless involve a step economic shocks are exerting undue pressure on backwards for many households, with lower income existing resilience mechanisms. Ultimately, while this in some cases pushing them into poverty. Many lack of connectivity may buffer some of the COVID-19 households depend on income from employment or related shocks, it will also exacerbate the very systems remittances in addition to subsistence agriculture to that perpetuate poverty and inequality. supplement consumption and increase resilience to shocks (especially considering the vulnerability of agricultural activities to climate-related risks). In addition, in remote outer islands of the PICs in our study, the threat to consumption may be exacerbated by supply chain disruptions to critical imports used to supplement domestic food production. Poverty rates are already higher among households engaged in subsistence agriculture than among other households. 20. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-25/fiji-bula-bubble-allow- australians-travel-covid19-pandemic/12393082 33 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 FIGURE 7. Share of Pacific households with access to basic public services UTILITIES CONNECTIVITY Water Vehicle 100% OUTER ISLANDS 80% OUTER 70% 80% MAIN ISLAND MAIN 60% 60% 50% TV 40% Boat 40% 30% 20% 20% 10% Gas Sanitation Radio Internet Electricity Phone Main island Outer islands Main island Outer islands Source: WB staff estimates based on HIES data. 34 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 4. UNDERSTANDING JOBS AT RISK FROM JOB VACANCY ANALYSIS 35 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: World Bank Against a backdrop of economic contraction and the - Samoa: data is based on online job advertisements impact of COVID-19 on employment, job opportunities primarily from the Samoa Public Service for Pacific workers may be at risk. Using job vacancy Commission. As a result, it illustrates changes in data, this section aims to identify occupations that are public job demand (with limited data on private at high and low risk in four countries – PNG, Fiji, sector jobs). The public sector accounts for a Samoa and Vanuatu. The findings in this section, quarter of employment (Samoa Bureau of generated through analysis of job advertisements from Statistics, 2020). The data set was collected from February and May 2020, serve to better understand the Samoa Observer newspaper and Facebook the impacts of COVID-19 on new hiring. Given the Employ Mai (comprising 5 percent of the sample). increasing need for virtual work environments in the - Vanuatu: jobs advertised with Vanuatu Wok context of COVID-19, the methodology used takes (formerly Wokikik) and the Vanuatu Daily Post in the particular consideration of demand for IT-related jobs. months of February and May 2020. This allowed Additionally, the approach aims to better understand for a glimpse into the labor demand of employers issues of structural unemployment by evaluating job before and during the onset of COVID-19. It is vacancy data along skills levels and educational important to note that data is limited to jobs posted requirements to identify potential skills gaps or on these two platforms and does not capture the mismatches between supply and demand of labor. impact of COVID-19 on the country’s large informal workforce. Data Sources It is challenging to access all vacancy data and to obtain good quality data in PICs, especially data that is recent. Data collection methods vary depending on JOB VACANCY ANALYSIS: RATIONALE the existing systems of each country, from manually Job vacancy analysis can be a useful tool in sourcing job advertisement data in Fiji, to obtaining understanding the dynamic relationship consolidated information from government between unemployment and labor demand, employment services in PNG. All data sources are job particularly during a crisis. As job matches are advertisements from February and May 2020 for each increasingly unraveled across the globe due to country, unless otherwise specified.21 changing conditions in an economic downturn, Data that was used for this analysis includes: job vacancies can provide a real-time measure of employer demand. Furthermore, using job - PNG: data from the Government of Papua New vacancy data not only provides a diagnostic of Guinea, Department of Labour and Industrial the labor market, but also allows for Relations. Analysis covered jobs posted at the disaggregated information based on geography, National Employment Services and work permit occupation group, or skillset. For example, this data. method has been used to measure the impact - Fiji: job advertisement sources include the Fiji Sun, of COVID-19 on the US labor market by Fiji Times, and the Fiji Revenue and Customs analyzing the interplay between unemployment Service website. The dataset does not cover job data and job vacancy postings. Several studies advertisements in the Fijian Government Civil using this approach have found that while Classifieds. nearly every industry experienced contractions in postings and spikes in unemployment (regardless of essential status or work-from- home capability), the frontline jobs that were 21. There are some caveats: the data might have seasonality in labor most in-demand at the onset of the crisis were demand; and some occupations have very low frequency in job impacted much less than jobs in leisure and advertisement numbers, such as elementary occupations, which hospitality services, which saw the biggest may owe to the fact many low-skilled jobs tend to be informal and are less likely to be advertised. Therefore, these findings can only collapse (Forsythe et al., 2020). be interpreted within the context of those jobs that are formally advertised. 36 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 4.1. Impact of COVID-19 Job vacancy analysis in Vanuatu and Fiji indicates a on Labor Demand small shift in the qualifications in demand – with an emphasis on business, economics, and management. Analysis of job vacancies in February and May While business qualifications were also prevalent indicates changes in labor demand as a result of before COVID-19 in Vanuatu, there were higher COVID-19. While the majority of occupations across concentrations of administration and STEM-related the four countries saw an overall decline in the qualifications in job ads such as engineering in number of jobs advertised, changes varied across February compared to May 2020 (Figure 9a).24 For occupational groups and skillsets. For PNG, job Fiji, analysis of qualification requirements in job ads advertisements contracted by 76 percent in May reveals sustained hiring for those with accounting compared to February 2020,22 with professionals, and management education backgrounds, along managers, clerical support workers and trades with increasing demand for marketing and finance workers seeing a sharp drop in job advertisements qualifications and declining demand for business (Figure 8a). Similarly, the overall number of jobs and engineering qualifications (Figure 9b). advertised went down in Vanuatu, with technicians and associate professionals having the largest In Vanuatu and Samoa, the number of job vacancies reduction (Figure 8b). New hiring declined across for professionals increased as a result of COVID-19. major occupations in Fiji, and new demand for service For Vanuatu, job advertisements for professionals and sales workers dropped sharply (by 74 percent) as a share of total jobs advertised increased by – suggesting bleak prospects for hard-hit services 13 percentage points between February and May 2020 and tourism sectors in the short-term (Figure 8c). (Figure 10). Samoa also saw a sharp drop in new hiring of service and sales workers, along with clerical support, technicians, and associate professionals (Figure 8d). For Fiji, a rise in crafts and trades demand suggests that businesses undertook repairs and maintenance work during this period, a trend also evident in the US. The most common jobs sought were laborers (trades people and plasterers) and bakers, followed by a mix of carpenters, plumbers, block and tile layers, and welders. The total value of private building and civil work declined by only 6.7 percent in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the same period in 2019.23 This is a small fall compared to nearly a 30 percent drop in cement demand during the same period. Close to 70 percent of work was conducted in the private sector. Fifty-four percent of construction work was conducted on new buildings and capital repairs, which had only a small decline of 3.5 percent, compared to the same period in 2019. Thirty-six percent of construction work undertaken was for civil engineering works, which declined by 11.8 percent compared to the first quarter of 2019. 22. This could be influenced by seasonality in labor demand. 23. Fiji Bureau of Statistics (2020). Wholesale and Retail Trade Statistics – March quarter 2020 https://www.statsfiji.gov.fj/index.php/statistics/social-statistics/ employment-statistics44 24. These findings are indicative, due to the small size of the Vanuatu dataset. 37 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 FIGURE 8. Changes in labor demand in May compared to February 2020 (a) PNG: New hiring of managers, professionals (b) Vanuatu: COVID-19 onset has reduced job and clerks fell sharply advertisements across almost all occupational categories with the exception of professionals 90 20 Elementary occupations 80 18 70 16 Plant and machine operators and assemblers 14 60 Trades workers 12 50 10 Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers 40 8 30 Service and sales workers 6 20 Clerical support workers 4 10 2 Technicians 0 0 Feb 2020 May 2020 Feb 2020 Professionals May 2020 Managers (c) Fiji: A drop in new services and sales jobs but an (d) Samoa: Clerical support workers, technicians and increase in craft and related trades jobs associate professionals were most impacted 50 80 Elementary Occupations Eleme 45 70 40 Plant and Machine Operators Plant a 60 35 50 Craft and Related Trades Workers Craft a 30 25 40 Skilled Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing Skilled 20 30 Service and Sales Workers Servic 15 20 10 Clerical Support Workers Clerica 10 5 Technicians and Associate Professionals Techn 0 0 Feb 2020 May 2020 Profes Feb 2020 May 2020 Professional Manager Manag Manager Skilled agriculture, forestry, fishing Professional Craft and related trades workers Technicians and associate professionals Plant and machine operators Clerical support workers Elementary occupations Service and sales workers Elementary occupations Plant and machine operators and assemblers E Sources: Various, refer to subsection ‘Data Sources’ (2020). P Trades workers Note: Graphs cannot be compared due to differences in total number of job advertisements (LHS). T Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers S Service and sales workers S Clerical support workers C Technicians 38 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 T Professionals P Managers M FIGURE 9. High-level qualification requirements (a) Vanuatu February 2020 May 2020 (b) Fiji February 2020 May 2020 39 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 FIGURE 10. Vanuatu: Professionals and managers make up 70 percent of all jobs advertised post-COVID-19 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Manager Professional Technicians Clerical Service Skilled Craft and Plant and Elementary and associate support and sales agriculture, related machine occupations professors workers workers forestry, trades operators fishing workers February 2020 May 2020 Source: Refer to Data Sources in Section 4. Advertisements for high-skilled jobs, such as The share of semi-skilled job postings dropped managers and senior officers remain prevalent. For substantially as a result of COVID-19. Job vacancy PNG, high-skilled jobs account for half of total jobs analysis in Samoa reveals a disproportionate decline advertised both before and after COVID-19. Business, in demand for semi-skilled workers – from 80 to administration, management, and accounting were 36 positions (Figure 11). In PNG, the share of job identified as continued areas of demand, along with advertisements for semi-skilled workers such as health, science, law, and finance. Job titles in Vanuatu trades workers and clerical support workers also also continue to focus on managers and senior level fell sharply, perhaps owing to jobs requiring travel, officers, with advertisements for managers and face-to-face interactions with clients, or difficulties professionals comprising 70 percent of all jobs in arranging remote work in a low digital service advertised post-COVID-19 (Figure 9). Senior positions environment. In comparison, elementary occupations25 also remain in demand in Samoa, particularly in and machine operators appear to have been relatively project management, monitoring, administration, less affected,26 meaning that new hiring of high- and education, and finance. In Fiji, the most sought-after semi-skilled workers contracted more than that of jobs remain managers and senior officers, followed by low-skilled workers (Figure 12). assistants, administrators, auditors, and maintenance- related positions, perhaps benefitting from high telework ability. 25. Such as cleaners, food preparation assistants, laborers in mining or construction. 26. A relative increase in demand for plant and machine operators, assemblers and drivers is due to mostly planned rehabilitation work at Wewak Hospital in East Sepik. 40 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 FIGURE 11. FIGURE 12. Samoa: Larger reduction in the numbers of PNG: Low demand for high- and jobs in semi-skilled positions semi-skilled workers 160 200 Low-skilled Low 140 180 160 Semi-skilled Sem 120 140 100 High-skilled High 120 80 100 60 80 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 Feb 2020 May 2020 Feb 2020 May 2020 High-skilled Semi-skilled Low-skilled Source: Refer to Data Sources in Section 4. Source: Refer to Data Sources in Section 4. Vanuatu had a similar experience to PNG in terms of Public sector employment may be affected by the reduced demand for high- and semi-skilled labor, but redirection of fiscal policy and funding towards the proportion of high-skilled labor remained constant COVID-19 response measures. For Samoa, where compared to the total number of jobs advertised. It is the government has had to respond to the dual shock likely that the necessity to work in virtual environments of COVID-19 and an earlier measles outbreak, lower harmed semi-skilled occupations that had less ability demand for clerical support and service workers in the to adapt in comparison to high-skilled occupations. public sector may be indicative of the government’s fiscal constraints. Furthermore, hiring for permanent Although the data suggests demand for low-skilled public sector jobs27 has mostly occurred in the labor has remained relatively constant throughout this country’s capital (Figure 13). The government’s period, this is likely to be the result of the fact that stimulus package is expected to assist those reliant employers are less likely to advertise for low-skilled on income from agriculture and the informal sector. positions, relying instead on word of mouth etc. In Vanuatu, job vacancy analysis reveals that job advertisements in the private and public sectors fell equally (Figure 14). 27. This needs to be interpreted with care as there are close to 80 positions not classified. 41 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 FIGURE 13. Samoa: Large majority of public sector jobs are permanent and in the capital city Number of job advertisements by job length Number of job advertisements by location February and May 2020 February and May 2020 180 250 Unclear Res 160 140 200 Permanent NW Job advertisements Job advertisements 120 Contract Ap 150 100 80 100 60 40 50 20 0 0 Feb 2020 May 2020 Feb 2020 May 2020 Contract Permanent Unclear Apia Urban Area NW Upolu Rest of Upolu Source: Refer to Data Sources in Section 4. Source: Refer to Data Sources in Section 4. FIGURE 14. FIGURE 15. Vanuatu: Even decline of private/public sector PNG: Number of job advertisements in ICT occupations during COVID-19 (February and May 2020) 35 300 Private 30 250 SOE 25 Job advertisements Job advertisements 200 Government 20 150 15 100 10 5 50 0 0 Feb 2020 May 2020 Feb 2020 May 2020 Government SOE Private Jobs in ICT Other jobs Source: Refer to Data Sources in Section 4. Source: Refer to Data Sources in Section 4. 42 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 FIGURE 16. Lower number of jobs in ICT in Fiji (a) Number of job advertisements (b) Number of IT jobs advertised requiring ICT skills 80 140 No No 70 120 Yes Yes 60 100 50 80 40 60 30 40 20 10 20 0 0 Feb 2020 May 2020 Feb 2020 May 2020 Yes No Jobs in IT Other Jobs Source: Refer to Data Sources in Section 4. Source: Refer to Data Sources in Section 4. 4.2. IT Jobs in the COVID-19 Era In Fiji, the number of jobs requiring IT skills remained stable, while those that do not require IT skills fell, The implementation of social distancing measures reflecting the rising need for telework or remote work points to the importance of facilitating the digitization (Figure 16a). Nevertheless, there has been no increase of work wherever possible. In the COVID-19 era, jobs of new hiring in IT-specific jobs suggesting that the IT that can be carried out with low physical proximity industry is still at the nascent stage (Figure 16b). As in and the ability to work-from-home are most suited to Fiji, job titles with ‘Information Technology’ or ICT are current conditions. Therefore, there is an increasing few in Samoa – 5 out of 227 in February – and 8 out need for companies and workplaces to shift towards of 165 in May. the digitalization of work. Analysis of the prevalence of IT jobs being advertised can serve to illustrate how Despite advancements in digital infrastructure, PIC economies are confronting this process. companies unable to utilize these advances to adapt to current public safety precautions are being left Low numbers of ICT job vacancies indicate potential behind. In Vanuatu, telecommunications sector data obstacles to the digitalization of work. In PNG, a small from 2019 suggests a transition toward a more increase in the numbers of ICT job advertisements digitized economy. There have been increases in was expected to occur as companies adapted to international bandwidth of 17 percent compared to COVID-19 scenarios. However, this was not yet 2018, mobile data subscriptions are up 52 percent, noticeable in the May 2020 data (Figure 15). mobile data downloads have increased 222 percent, and mobile data revenue has risen by 83 percent. (TRBR, 2019). Notwithstanding this, the lack of job advertisements for IT specialists or roles requiring IT skills suggests a limited transition among workplaces (Figure 17). 43 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 FIGURE 17. Prevalence of IT jobs being advertised in Vanuatu (a) Number of job advertisements requiring IT skills (b) Number of IT jobs advertised 35 70 No Othe 30 60 Yes Jobs 25 50 20 40 15 30 10 20 5 10 0 0 Feb 2020 May 2020 Feb 2020 May 2020 Yes No Jobs in IT Other Jobs Source: Refer to Data Sources in Section 4. Source: Refer to Data Sources in Section 4. FIGURE 18. PNG: Mismatches between demand and supply of labor (a) Jobs advertised mostly require TVET, Diploma, (b) Workforce tends to be low-skilled Certificate or Tertiary qualifications 150 100 Tertiary - University degree high 90 80 TVET Vocational Certificate com 70 100 Secondary education inco 60 50 Primary education com 40 50 inco 30 20 no e 10 0 0 Feb 2020 May 2020 Age 15-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45+ Primary education TVET/Vocational certificate No education Incomplete secondary Secondary education Tertiary education Incomplete primary Complete secondary Complete primary Higher Note: Large number of missing or not specified observations Source: Demographic Household Survey, 2018. 88 observations for February 2020 and 47 for May 2020. 150 44 PACIFIC 100 ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 50 FIGURE 19. Fiji: Most jobs required tertiary education prior- and post-COVID-19 (a) Number of job advertisements requiring IT skills (b) Highest level of educational achievement by age (2014/15) 60 100 Tertiary Education Unive 90 50 80 TVET/Vocational Certificate Comp 70 40 Secondary Education Comp 60 30 50 Primary Education Comp 40 20 Did n 30 20 10 10 0 0 Feb 2020 May 2020 Age 25-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+ Primary education TVET/Vocational certificate Incomplete primary Complete upper secondary Secondary education Tertiary education Complete primary University and higher Complete lower secondary Source: Various, refer to subsection ‘Data Sources’ (2020). Source: Household Income and Expenditure Survey, 2014-2015. FIGURE 20. 150 Education preferences in vacancies not aligned with ni-Vanuatu labor supply (a) Number of job advertisements by (b) Educational attainment gender qualification requirements 100 40 40 Tertiary Education Male Percent of gender with educational level TVET/Vocational 50 Certificate Fem 30 30 Secondary Education 20 20 Primary Education 0 Feb 2020 May 2020 10 10 0 0 No Some Complete Some Complete More than Feb 2020 May 2020 education education primary secondary secondary secondary Primary education TVET/Vocational certificate Female Male Secondary education Tertiary education Source: Various, refer to subsection ‘Data Sources’ (2020). Source: Demographic and Health Survey 2013. 45 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 4.3. Skills Gaps in the Labor Market In PNG, skills gaps in the domestic labor market continued to be filled by foreign workers during There is an indication of potential mismatches the pandemic. The number of work permits issued between demand and supply of skilled labor. In PNG, to foreign workers in May was far higher than the most jobs advertised in February or May 2020 number of jobs advertised. The construction, required at least TVET qualification (Figure 18a). wholesale/retail trade, agriculture, forestry and However, the majority of the workforce in PNG has fishery sectors remained prominent industries for not completed secondary education and would not hiring foreign workers (Figure 21). Nevertheless, be able to apply for the jobs being advertised (Figure all these sectors saw drops in May compared to 18b). In Fiji, most jobs advertised continue to require March, notably in the mining and quarrying sector a tertiary education, suggesting skills gaps in the (51 percent) and the tourism-related sector. labor market (Figure 19a). While Fiji has a relatively Difficulties in bringing in new foreign workers due well-educated population compared to other PICs, to travel restrictions is likely to further constrain tertiary education holders in the economically active business activity. Investment in training (upskilling group (aged between 25 and 44 years) are limited and reskilling of the workforce) during the recovery in numbers, according to Demographic Household phase could help ease these constraints. Survey 2018 (Figure 19b). A similar mismatch persists in Vanuatu, where the majority of job The analysis presented corroborates the vacancies posted by employers require tertiary consensus that investment in skills development education. While qualifications in Vanuatu appeared remains a priority. For example, this sub-section to have lowered to secondary education and TVET shows the prevalent skills mismatch hindering certification for a handful of postings during the employment opportunities for the ni-Vanuatu labor global pandemic, most sought-after jobs remained force and stagnating economic growth. Investing in inaccessible to the majority of the ni-Vanuatu public education and health to increase skill levels workforce due to skills shortages (Figure 20). It is will allow for a higher proportion of the population important to note that the data used in this analysis to have access to improved and stable incomes. is limited to those jobs that were formally advertised, Training programs emphasizing digital literacy will meaning that informal sector demand has not been further enhance opportunities. Moving forward, fully captured. addressing the vulnerability of those in the informal sector will remain a challenge given the absence of Persistent skills gaps in the labor market can formal social safety nets, and one that is of high exacerbate unemployment and reduce livelihoods. importance for human capital development. The aforementioned potential mismatch between the demand and supply of skilled labor provides a partial explanation for the high rates of formal sector unemployment in PNG, especially amongst youth, and is a feature of labor market demand that appears unchanged as a result of COVID-19. In Fiji, persistent skills gaps indicate that many secondary or lower education holders have limited opportunities or are likely to be informal workers. The same is true in Vanuatu. 46 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 47 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Number FIGURE 21. Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying and auto repair industries of work permits issued Source: Refer to Data Sources in Section 4. Construction March Wholesale and retail trade; auto repair April Transportation and storage Accommodation and food service activities May Information and communication Professional, scientific and technical In PNG, work permits are mostly being issued in the construction, wholesale/retail trade, Administrative and support service activities Other service activities PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 5. EMERGING DOMESTIC JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN THE COVID-19 ERA 48 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: Darren James Despite detrimental impacts on employment, the Yet, border closures have led to a shortage of unprecedented disruption caused by COVID-19 has international workers for those projects (as well as a set the scene for some emerging job opportunities for shortage of imported materials and machinery in some Pacific Island workers. These opportunities can be cases). Even after borders open, foreign workers might broadly categorized into two groups: one involves the be disinclined to travel for fear of infection. This reallocation of human resources within an economy so presents a substitution opportunity for domestic as to reduce the extent of job losses induced by the workers, provided appropriate reskilling and upskilling crisis; the other involves the creation of new jobs that takes place.29 have arisen from restricted mobility and the potential For these opportunities to materialize, regulation ‘new normal’ after the pandemic. guidelines and training is critical. Ultra-short courses may be sufficient to support displaced workers to move into new jobs that require skill sets similar to 5.1. Reallocation Opportunities within their existing ones. Data from Fiji and Samoa, for Domestic Labor Markets instance, shows that most tourism sector workers There is the potential in PIC economies for labor to engage in three main sub-sectors: accommodation, be reallocated from hard-hit sectors such as tourism road transport, and food and beverage (Table 3). Such to other sectors, including essential service activities workers are likely to already have the necessary skills where workers have related skills in providing personal to perform jobs in healthcare, cleaning, and retail care services. Workers employed in the largest five customer services. Since most jobs in these sub- occupations in the accommodation and food services sectors cannot be performed remotely, additional industry – waiters, kitchenhands, chefs, sales training related to hygiene management and assistants, bar attendants and baristas – may have workplace health and safety could prove useful, not the necessary skills to switch to a wide range of jobs only to make furloughed workers more employable that support important services during COVID-19.28 amidst the pandemic but also to minimize infection There are examples of such re-deployment in risks.30 Australia, where a supermarket chain and a telecom company have hired furloughed workers from movie theatres, apparel and aviation sectors. Similar reallocation has also occurred in China and the US. In PNG, on the other hand, most of those workers who reported changing jobs in response to COVID-19 took up new employment within the same sector (Himelein et al., 2020). Domestic labor could be used as a substitute for foreign workers in the construction industry. Donor- funded infrastructure construction including roads, 28. Such as checkout operators and office cashiers; commercial ports and airports – as well as reconstruction and cleaners; food and drink factory workers; packers; pharmacy sales repair activities for housing, public buildings, and assistants; shelf stackers; store persons; truck drivers; couriers; schools after Cyclone Gita and Harold in Samoa, stock clerks; hospital orderlies; aged and disabled carers; nursing support workers; personal care assistants; telemarketers; call center Tonga and Vanuatu – are expected to be important or contact center operators. This is according to the Job Outlook of sources of job creation and economic growth going the Australian Department of Employment, Skills and Employment forward (World Bank 2020). (DESE). 29. Expansion in domestic production of some materials for the construction industry could create jobs and develop the domestic manufacturing sector, although this is unlikely to be viable in the medium-term, given the substantial investment in education, infrastructure, and technology needed. This strategy will be less feasible in smaller PICs, especially in atoll states where land and material resources are limited. 30. As found in Australian DESE’s Job Outlook. 49 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 TABLE 3. The substitution of foreign workers in the Distribution of employment in the construction industry, however, is likely to require tourism sector by sub-sectors (percent) substantial upskilling/reskilling. In PNG, for instance, most foreigners in the construction sector work as managers, technicians, and skilled trade workers SUB-SECTOR FIJI SAMOA and there is a severe shortage of these high-level skills in the local labor force (Voigt-Graf, 2016). Accommodation for visitors 24.8 39.6 Given the uncertainties surrounding economic Food and beverage serving 19.2 22.8 recovery, longer-term training could focus on activities universal skills, such as digital literacy, problem solving, social and emotional skills, and other Road passenger transport 36.4 29.5 generic workplace/managerial skills. There is a common perception among employers in PICs that Water passenger transport 3.7 5.1 such skills are lacking in the workforce, especially among graduates (World Bank 2020g). Incorporating Air passenger transport 5.6 - soft skills development into training courses can therefore be considered a ‘no-regrets’ measure, Transport equipment rental - 2.4 which leads to positive outcomes irrespective of what path economic recovery takes. Cultural activities 9.6 - Training initiatives should also cater to new labor force entrants. Unlike displaced workers, the ‘COVID Source: ILO (2020b). generation’ of tertiary graduates and school leavers Note: The distribution does not always sum to 100 due to the exclusion has yet to obtain work experience and job-relevant of unreliable estimates. Estimates are based on Fiji 2016 LFS and skills through employment. This lack of experience, Samoa 2017 LFS. coupled with low relevance and quality of many training programs, as well as generic workplace and business skills, puts these youth at a disadvantage when competing against veteran workers in the context of soaring unemployment. Lowering their entry point into the labor market also has the potential to lead to poorer long-term employment and earnings prospects. In extreme cases, prolonged unemployment might discourage participation in the labor force all together. Given the need for reskilling and upskilling of the labor force, the next question is, who should provide and fund such training, and in what format? The answers here depend partly on context, including the fiscal capacity of government and the employment prospects of different jobs in each country. The broad-based impacts of the crisis on employment suggest there is a case for the provision of reskilling opportunities at an industry level. Fiscal stimulus packages in PICs to date have focused on relief from the shock but have been silent on active labor market measures. 50 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Given the fiscal constraints in most PICs, public- private collaboration with employers and/or education service providers could serve as a Medium-Term Opportunities mechanism to provide and finance such training. While laid-off and unemployed workers are unlikely The most prominent labor-market trend that has to be in a position to afford training costs upfront, emerged out of COVID-19 is the swift and substantial potential arrangements such as income-contingent adoption of remote working across countries and loans to workers or wage deduction upon successful most industries.34 The prevalence of home-based redeployment could also be explored to reduce the work has led to a surge in demand for fiscal burden. It is important that PICs set up digital telecommunication services, infrastructure and channels to provide upskilling and reskilling training devices, which in turn presents employment during the COVID-19 era.31 Where possible, digital opportunities in these industries in the short- and courses could include social learning components medium-term. More importantly, the higher-than- and human connections. With support from expected feasibility and productivity of remote development partners, efforts could be geared working could lead to a more fundamental shift in toward developing virtual reality training simulations business models. which could be shared among PICs, once developed. This trend, if it materializes, could allow Pacific workers to surpass geographic borders – both domestic and international – and be employed 5.2. Emerging Job Opportunities remotely. The trend could also enable domestic Short-Term Opportunities employers to access non-local talent at lower costs and significantly save on rent and other overheads by Across developed countries, COVID-19 has led to reducing or giving up physical office space. Industries increased labor demand in several industries. In that have the highest share of jobs that can be Australia, supermarkets, e-commerce, and supply performed remotely and hence are most likely to chain businesses have been hiring in large numbers benefit from this remote adoption are: (i) educational to meet increased demand for truck and delivery services; (ii) professional, scientific, and technical drivers, warehouse workers and packers, cleaners, services; (iii) management of companies and customer service agents, and call center operators. enterprises; (iv) finance and insurance; and (v) Healthcare, transport and logistics, mining and information (Dingel and Neiman, 2020). The trend, mining services, manufacturing, agriculture and however, cuts both ways; qualified Pacific workers public services have also experienced higher labor may find themselves vying for the same jobs as demand.32, 33 Similar patterns are also observed in workers elsewhere. the US, where labor demand remains strong for jobs in nursing, telecommunication software, technical support (including customer relations, IT, supply chain logistics), and essential retail – including 31. For instance, France has made some 150 new training courses pharmacies and grocery stores (Kahn et al., 2020; available online and Estonia’s public employment service quickly Forbes, 2020). Much of this hiring has resulted from developed e-learning for care workers, in high demand during the pandemic. These actions were undertaken in cooperation short-term spikes in domestic demand for essential with the relevant stakeholders (for further discussion, see OECD, goods and services in response to life under 2020, “Public employment services in the frontline for employees, quarantine and is unlikely to last after social jobseekers and employers”) distancing measures ease. Some, however, reflects 32. https://coact.org.au/jobs-that-are-hiring-during-covid-19/ more permanent structural economic change. Both 33. https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleystahl/2020/04/01/4-industries- cases present employment opportunities in the who-are-still-hiring-in-the-midst-of-covid-19/#46ce073315ee short-term. 34. A recent study by McKinsey reports that the world has experienced five years of digital adoption within merely eight weeks since COVID-19 forced a switch to remote working. Source: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey- digital/our-insights/the-covid-19-recovery-will-be-digital-a-plan-for- the-first-90-days 51 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Limited access to telecommunication services remains The extent that Pacific economies can benefit from a key obstacle to the digitalization of work and the rising digital economy depends largely on the financial systems in these countries. As discussed, development of sectors that are accepting of home- internet penetration remains low. Mobile phone access based work and how workforces adapt to remote varies but remains consistently well below the average working. On the supply side, workers in the seven for middle-income countries, from 17 subscriptions countries in our study are largely low- and semi- per 100 people in Kiribati, to 64 in Tonga, and 60 in skilled, with limited access to education and training Vanuatu. Internet services on mobile phones are even facilities. Less than 10 percent of the working-age more limited. Also, while mobile phone costs in some population (15+) in PNG, for instance, has completed countries (Tonga) are comparable to the average of secondary school. The figures for Fiji, Tonga and developing countries in the East Asia and Pacific Samoa are 25.5, 75.8, and 68.4 percent, respectively region, costs are twice as high in others (Samoa, (World Bank, 2017b; TSD, 2017; ILO, 2015). Poor Kiribati, Vanuatu), which reduces the ability of low- education and training quality are also a challenge. income households to use phone services. Upskilling the labor force, both in technical and soft skills needed to manage digital work arrangements, The digital divide within countries can also be drastic is therefore vital for Pacific workers to compete and across both regions and income groups. For instance, capitalize on the transition to remote hiring and in Kiribati, the mobile network is unavailable in many remote working. outer islands, resulting in less than 7 percent of households with internet access as of June 2018.35 The high cost of subscribing to broadband or accessing mobile cellular services is likely to weaken low-income households’ access to broadband internet. For instance, the prices of fixed-broadband service are equivalent to 2 percent of Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in Tonga, 12 percent in Samoa, 66 percent in Kiribati (UN ESCAP 2016); and by 2017, 41 percent of the population have access to internet in Tonga as compared to 34 percent in Samoa and 15 percent in Kiribati.36 It is likely those at the higher end of the income distribution and those in urban areas, who have better access to digital resources, are more likely to benefit from any moves towards distance learning and remote working. 35. According to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). 36. According to the World Development Indicators database. 52 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Tourism has been a significant source of formal sector In PNG, the construction boom expected from employment for many PICs. Its potential recovery additional FDI into the resource sector represents a depends on a range of factors. First, it remains unclear promising source of employment. The implementation when and how a travel bubble with Australia and/or of new resource projects (Papua Liquified Natural Gas New Zealand will be established or sustained, given (LNG) and Wafi-Golpu) combined with professional, the periodic resurgence of COVID-19 cases in various administrative, and support services needed alongside jurisdictions in both countries. Any bubble established these projects, could generate formal jobs. There are between PICs and Australia and New Zealand could downside risks, however, such as ongoing disputes be subject to competition from other potential over the Porgera mine which could weaken investor bubbles. Vietnam and Thailand, for instance, have also confidence (World Bank, 2020c). Upskilling of Papua considered ways to once again allow travel by New Guineans is needed to ensure these jobs are Australians and New Zealanders. Second, hotels and filled and to avoid a repeat of the first LNG project, tour operators need to reconfigure their business which mobilized significant amounts of semi-skilled models to adapt to changes in tourist preferences (low foreign labor during the (labor intensive) construction contact, smaller groups, and more space). Third, the phase of the project. scarring effects of the pandemic and economic downturn in larger countries, notably in Australia and Long-Term Opportunities New Zealand, though also China and the US, which are the main sources of tourists to the region, could The unique geographical conditions of PICs mean impede both the willingness and financial capacity of that they are unlikely to follow conventional growth potential visitors to travel abroad. Fourth, regional models. Most developing countries start with airlines are facing significant damages from the structural transition from an agriculture-dominant prolonged revenue loss, making the resumption of economy to a manufacturing- and then service- low-cost flights uncertain. Fifth, given heterogeneous oriented economy. This path is less likely for PICs capacity to contain and (after lockdown) eradicate the (World Bank, 2017c). A more viable long-term path virus across countries, some international mobility for Pacific Island states is through industries that restrictions might remain in the coming years. generate economic rents, including resource industries Together, these factors could result in a prolonged (for PNG and Solomon Islands), fishing (Federated downturn in tourism for PICs even after the virus States of Micronesia (FSM), Republic of the Marshall recedes and travel bubbles are established. Islands (RMI) and Kiribati), and industries where they have a niche advantage, such as tourism (Fiji, Kiribati, Additional donor finance to PICs in response to the Samoa and Vanuatu). Of these, tourism and pandemic could be leveraged into job creation through construction within resource industries are more economic stimulus packages, provision of social labor intensive. protection services and public work programs, as well as potentially improving the provision of healthcare, education and social protection. There has also been advocacy for digital public works as a cost-effective way to generate income and work experience for disadvantaged workers (Weber, 2020). Digital public works could potentially help to close the digital divide by broadening digital exposure for disadvantaged groups and opening new job opportunities in private markets in communities where they operate. However, to be feasible, such programs require access to adequate ICT infrastructure, which is problematic in the region, especially in rural and disadvantaged areas. 53 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Future opportunities likely lie in promoting and Projections of long-term job opportunities, like any capitalizing on countries’ niche characteristics. long-term projections, are informed speculation at Adventure tourism could be a new market where PICs best. Their materialization depends on many factors. could attract young international tourists, currently not Some broad patterns of changes in skills demand the strongest visitor group to the region. This could over time are nevertheless clear. US jobs data open up new jobs related to equipment rental and between 1980 and 2012, for example, reveals that sports, recreational, and cultural activities. These the labor market increasingly rewards social skills sub-sectors have been in the minority within the (Deming, 2017). Similarly, The Future of Jobs survey tourism sector, for instance, in Fiji and Samoa. The by the World Economic Forum (WEF, 2016) predicted Pacific’s relatively pristine environment could also that soft skills, such as those related to persuasion, open up green jobs in fields such as environmental emotional intelligence and teaching others, would be management and solar power – or jobs in the in high demand going forward. Given the increasingly production of goods that could be marketed with a dynamic labor market and uncertainty associated brand premium that leverages on the region’s low level with how the ‘new normal’ will look, investment in of pollution and remoteness. An example is Fiji Water, broad skills such as these, which can be applied which has successfully promoted itself as the Earth’s across occupations and sectors, is a sound strategy. ‘finest water’. Similar branding could be developed for The same is true in the case of digital literacy. PICs high-value, low-volume agricultural and forestry should look to increase investment in such skill areas exports, such as coconut products, cocoa, indigenous as part of their longer-term strategy to expand nuts, natural cosmetics, sandalwood, and preserved employment opportunities and maximize incomes for spices – promoting them as exotic, pure and their workers, both domestically and overseas. environmentally friendly (ILO, 2017).   Jobs in human capital fields, including healthcare, safety, and education, are also expected to expand in PICs as in elsewhere in the world. Historical job data from the US suggests that nearly all major areas in healthcare have been growing. This includes a wide range of jobs, from professional specialists (such as anesthesiologists) to care workers (such as nurses and massage therapists), and from medical equipment preparers, to dental hygienists. In PICs, healthcare workers are often in short supply, pointing to employment opportunities and a priority area for investment in education. Health and education services are likely to also experience a shift toward digital-based delivery as a result of COVID-19. For PICs, where geographical distance is a key challenge in the provision of essential services, there is potential for greater use of telemedicine and remote learning, which could expand employment in the healthcare and education sectors through enhanced access to, and consequently, demand for such services from remote areas. This, of course, requires upskilling of the labor force in terms of digital literacy, remote working and remote delivery of services, as well as considerable investment in ICT equipment and infrastructure. 54 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 6. EMERGING JOB OPPORTUNITIES OVERSEAS 55 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: The Fred Hollows Foundation NZ/Darren James Many Pacific Islanders are employed overseas. The pandemic will undoubtedly change future Polynesian and Micronesian PICs have amongst the demand for labor across sectors in countries that world’s highest rates of emigration, with large host Pacific Island workers, with a general slowdown diaspora populations living overseas. These features in aggregate economic growth, and with certain have also led to remittances being an important economic activities severely restricted. Some sectors source of income. Seven of the top ten remittance will inadvertently be more vulnerable than others to recipients, by share of GDP in the East Asia and the forced implementation of stop-gap responses Pacific region, are PICs. The vast majority of Pacific designed to control the spread of COVID-19, Islanders living overseas reside in one of three especially in the short-term. Jobless claims have countries: Australia (28%), New Zealand (32%) or the reached historical highs in the US, while the United States (30%). Migration has often taken the unemployment rate reached 6.8 percent in August form of special pathways available to PIC citizens. 2020 in Australia, the highest in the last decade, with For example, Compacts of Free Association (COFA) a significant number of jobs reliant on temporary allows citizens of the Marshall Islands, Micronesia wage subsidy measures. Low-wage, part-time jobs and Palau to benefit from open access arrangements involving low skill levels have been hit hardest. In the in the US labor market. Citizens of many Polynesian United States, 86 percent of jobs that the pandemic countries have either open access or special visa has made vulnerable paid less than US$40,000 a arrangements with New Zealand, which also provides year. In Australia, job advertisements for sales pathways to Australia (World Bank, 2017d). workers and clerical and administrative workers declined by 20.5 and 31.4 percent, respectively Pacific Islanders living overseas have faced high between August 2020 and August 2021, while payroll risks of job/income loss due to the impacts of data shows that the largest declines have occurred in COVID-19 on labor markets in host countries. This is industries that employ large numbers of low-skilled due to their low education levels and a large reliance workers, such as accommodation and food services on low-skilled and casual jobs that have been (Figure 24) (Australian Government, 2020). On the severely affected by the crisis. In Australia, for other hand, Australian farmers saw acute shortages example, laborers, machine operators and drivers in labor to harvest perishable seasonal crops which constitute between 19-43 percent of the main is done primarily by foreign workers. occupations of Pacific Islanders, compared with only 16 percent on average for Australians. The majority of Pacific Islanders in Australia therefore work in occupations requiring high physical proximity or skill levels that are not easily transitioned into digital or home-office settings (Figure 22 and Figure 23). These occupations are at greater risk of being affected by the COVID-19 crisis. 56 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 FIGURE 22. COVID-19 physical proximity score by selected major occupational groups (2020) Source: Australian Government (2020) Labour Market Information Portal (LMIP). FIGURE 23. COVID-19 physical proximity score by selected skill level groups (2020) Source: Australian Government (2020) Labour Market Information Portal (LMIP). 57 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 FIGURE 24. Percentage change in payroll jobs by industry (14 March - 5 September 2020) Other services Arts and recreation services Healthcare and social assistance Education and training Public administration and safety Administrative and support services Professional, scientific and technical services Rental, hiring and real estate services Financial and insurance services Information media and telecommunications Transport, postal and warehousing Accommodation and food services Retail trade Wholesale trade Construction Electricity, gas, water and waste services Manufacturing Mining Agriculture, forestry and fishing -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Source: Australia Labour Market Information portal. 58 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 The medium- and long-term outlook is less clear, Integration in the global economy, trade patterns and given uncertainty around the distribution of a vaccine the global trade architecture are likely to also be an and associated restrictions designed to control the important determinant of developments in the labor spread of COVID-19, as well as the potential for market, particularly in Australia and New Zealand. structural change that is permanent in nature, such The COVID-19 crisis has deeply impacted global as the shift to home-based work. Furthermore, supply chains in the short-term, with these effects COVID-19 may push governments to revisit their likely to linger in the medium-term. Long-term labor migration policies on who to admit, when and impacts on global trade are less certain. Although on what terms. On the supply side, prospective there has been some discussion in policy circles migrant workers may also decide to revisit their about increasing self-sufficiency in essential areas aspirations of overseas employment in the COVID-19 (e.g., pharmaceuticals production), there has been era. Despite this, a number of long-term structural minimal policy change to date in this direction. It is changes are likely to continue to affect labor market likely that the impacts of such measures will be demand in destination countries for Pacific workers. marginal in the long run. This would suggest a continuation of long-term structural changes An aging population and increased demand for experienced to date in the labor markets of host home-based care and childcare services will likely countries is likely, including the continued decline of see these industries expand over time in all three employment in manufacturing and the rise of jobs, destination countries. In Australia, employment in both low- and high-skilled, in service industries. the healthcare and social assistance industry over the last two decades has steadily increased, with A third factor driving labor market changes in the 1.685 million workers employed in 2018. Australia’s long-term is digital transformation. An unintended Department of Education, Skills, and Employment consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic is the (DESE) projected that by 2024, the industry would accelerated transition towards digital transformation. employ an additional 252,000 workers, the majority McKinsey for example has reported that Australians’ of whom are likely to be located in New South Wales access to the digital economy has increased due to (89,300), Victoria (65,000), and Queensland (58,300). the pandemic.37 Australians also spent more hours In terms of skill levels, professionals (those under consuming digital content – from social media, to Skills Level 1 according to the Australian Standards news and entertainment – with the increase in digital Framework) and support aides (those under Skills activity occurring across all age groups. This change Level 3) are projected to be in high demand. in consumer behavior is a pivotal moment for companies to adapt and will have impacts on the future of work. As previously discussed, virtual or work-from-home arrangements are becoming the ‘new normal’ for businesses as part of their continuity strategies, especially in the banking and finance, telecommunications, and entertainment industries.38 37. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/as-physical- doors-close-new-digital-doors-swing-open 38. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our- insights/the-covid-19-recovery-will-be-digital-a-plan-for-the-first-90- days 59 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 The impact of the pandemic on Australia’s labor For the Pacific Labour Scheme, industries where there outlook poses both challenges and opportunities for is potential for increased employment of Pacific workers from PICs. As Australia’s international borders Islanders (including due to lower numbers of other gradually reopen, it is likely that access will be given migrant workers) include healthcare and social first to countries where COVID-19 has not spread or assistance, agriculture, construction, as well as has been effectively controlled. Most PICs were accommodation and food services. All four industries spared from the effects of the virus. If travel from PICs had been projected to expand prior to COVID-19, to Australia and New Zealand is allowed prior to that although the medium-term outlook for accommodation from other countries, PICs will have the first and food services is less certain now as a result of the opportunity to fill the gap in labor supply left by the pandemic.39 In healthcare and social assistance, absence of other migrant worker groups, with visa clerical and aide work are occupations that are in line issuances for foreigners on temporary work and study with the skills and certification requirements provided visas expected to remain at low levels for some time. through the Australian Pacific Training Coalition As such, there is a possibility that low- and semi- (APTC). For construction, there are potential skilled labor, supplied previously by foreigners from opportunities for manual labor, heavy and civil other regions, may be filled by Pacific Islanders, engineering works, as well as building structure, although there will also be greater competition from installation, and completion services. Australians given higher unemployment levels.   New job opportunities are likely to arise in a number of industries under existing labor mobility schemes.In horticulture, Pacific Islanders working in Australia under the Seasonal Worker Programme have for some time faced competition from backpackers on Working Holiday Maker visas. These travelers are able to extend their visas after working in a regional area in agriculture (some other industries, such as mining, are also open to visa extensions) (Curtain et al., 2018). With less backpackers in Australia due to COVID-19 (a decline of 39 percent since December 2019), there’s more potential for PIC workers to take up agricultural jobs in regional areas under the Seasonal Work Programme (SWP). 39. https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/GainInsights/ EmploymentProjections 60 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 7. CONCLUSION 61 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: Darren James The COVID-19 pandemic has contracted global Employment retention support could moderate job economic activities, pushing many countries into loss. Disruptions to businesses/demand will increase economic recession. PICs are no exception. With formal sector unemployment to an unprecedented high exposure to global demand through tourism, level. It is expected that the global rate of commodities, and remittances, PICs are expected to unemployment will reach its highest level since experience a steeper decline in GDP growth in 2020 1965 (World Bank, 2020a). Fiji has already seen compared to emerging market developing economies. unemployment claims rise and new employment In tourism-dependent Fiji, Samoa and Vanuatu, contract sharply. Unemployment is likely to be international tourism has effectively ceased, and pronounced in the labor-intensive tourism sector this trend is likely to continue with COVID-19 control and other service sectors (such as taxi transportation measures in place and changing preferences in and construction). By May 2020, employment tourism (e.g., avoiding group tours). Countries are retention schemes, such as wage subsidies, had easing lockdown measures cautiously and are supported about 50 million jobs across OECD projected to recover in 2021 but until a COVID-19 countries (Gentilini et al., 2020). vaccine is distributed widely, uncertainty is likely Social safety nets need to be devised to insulate to remain. unemployed informal workers. Workers and micro/ This crisis also poses unprecedented challenges from small enterprises in the informal sector, including a social perspective, with a need for expansion of youth, will be hit hard. As their employment is not social assistance measures. COVID-19 is likely to registered, they have no, or at best limited, access exacerbate gender inequality; women are at higher to social protection and social safety nets, and are risk of being infected from the virus due to their role more likely to be excluded from government stimulus as frontline responders within the healthcare system, packages. Loss of employment during this crisis and of being unemployed, as they are more likely to could push them into poverty. So far, countries have engage in jobs in the informal sector which require introduced a total of 724 social assistance measures, face-to-face interaction. With school closures, accounting for more than 60 percent of COVID-19 children face a loss of learning opportunities, support measures – most commonly in the form of particularly amongst those from disadvantaged and cash transfers, followed by in-kind transfers and vulnerable groups which tend to have lower access waiving of utility fees or financial obligations (ibid). to online learning platforms. This loss will weaken Proactive employment services (including training) their career prospects and result in widening future could help unemployed workers transition to new jobs income gaps. by expediating labor reallocation from low-demand sectors to high-demand ones. Some examples can be Policy Measures and Actions to Address seen in Asian countries such as Indonesia, where the the Challenges number of subsidized vouchers has been increased for unemployed workers to help with skilling and Countries around the world have responded to the reskilling. An estimated 5.6 million informal workers employment and livelihood impacts of COVID-19 and small and micro enterprises affected by COVID-19 through a variety of labor market, education and in Indonesia will have access to these vouchers. In social protection interventions. As of December 2020, Malaysia, subsidies for short courses in digital skills for instance, 136 countries and territories have have been announced (ibid). implemented 346 social insurance programs, including paid sick support, health insurance support, pensions, unemployment benefits and social security contribution subsidies/waivers. In addition, 198 active labor market programs, such as wage subsidy, training, and labor regulatory adjustments have been implemented in 107 countries. PICs can draw on measures that have worked in other contexts to inform their own responses. 62 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Work-study dual training systems and apprenticeship In the medium-term, increasing capacity of both schemes could be strengthened to help graduates to workers and domestic businesses to adjust and gain relevant skills. Work-based learning programs absorb new ways of doing things is key to capitalizing offer a valuable opportunity to connect on-the-job on these opportunities. Potential solutions that learning with related technical in-class studies. governments and business associations could During the COVID-19 pandemic, countries continued consider include: (i) qualification recognition based on to promote work-based learning programs by microcredit/short courses instead of degrees in order adapting to social distancing measures, and to better adapt skill-matching to dynamic situations; employing distance learning or virtual learning (ii) encouragement of female participation and the techniques, while assuring financial stability to registration of informal businesses in exchange for individuals undertaking work-based learning courses. finance, and fast-tracked issuance of licenses for businesses to expand into related activities (e.g., The crisis has established remote working restaurants providing delivery services); (iii) credit arrangements (or telework) as the ‘new normal’, and tax incentives for employers to upskill their which could lead to new opportunities for Pacific employees, especially in the case of micro, small and Island workers. By undertaking structural reforms to medium businesses, which account for the majority create more conducive business environments for of private sector jobs in most PICs; and (iv) inclusive IT-based service industries, PICs could expand skills development training on technical and socio- IT-related infrastructure, increase their engagement emotional skills to cope with digital work in the digital economy, and position themselves to arrangements. Moreover, when international borders export digital services across borders. This transition are opened, cross-country coordination to promote would help reallocate domestic labor from sectors the Pacific as a COVID-safe travel destination would that require physical proximity, such as tourism and help restore confidence for potential visitors. aviation, to emerging services sectors where work could be carried out remotely. There will continue to be demand for PIC workers overseas, notably in the agriculture, logistics, and A successful transition to an expanded digital healthcare sectors. During the lockdown phase when economy rests on upskilling and reskilling of workers. most occupation groups reported annual job losses, New mechanisms are needed to help workers who labor demand in aged care, e-commerce and logistics have lost their jobs transition into occupations in increased in most advanced economies. COVID-19 which labor demand still outstrips supply, and rapidly has also led to higher digital transactions, which build the skills needed for these new roles. Examples could potentially contribute in the long-term to include: talent exchange platforms, as seen in the opportunities for workers in the Pacific in auxiliary US and Australia; the employee sharing plan services. (between grocery retail companies and hotel/tourism businesses); and the redeployment of seasonal workers among employers under the SWP and the Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme in New Zealand. 63 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 TVET providers have an important role to play in In the long-term, demand for workers from the developing skills to mitigate the socioeconomic Pacific, along with growth of the PLS, will be strongly impacts of COVID-19 (Annex). During the recovery influenced by Australia’s immigration and work visa from the COVID-19 crisis, TVET institutions in the policies. The onus here is on the Australian Pacific should focus on helping laid-off workers government to support its Pacific Step-up40 by increase their mobility to other industries where there ensuring that migration policy settings complement is labor demand. Training institutions should scale up and support the desire to grow the PLS and the investments in flexible and remote learning, establish number of Pacific Islanders working in Australia. mechanisms to identify the emerging skills needs of Continued dialogue between the Australian and PIC employers, develop training programs in response to governments, which also incorporates important these needs (in collaboration with businesses), and stakeholders such as Australian employers and design upskilling/reskilling programs. To improve labor training providers in the region, will be crucial for the mobility, the Australian Pacific Training Coalition long-term success of labor mobility from the region (APTC) could play a convening role, in partnership with to Australia. the Pacific Labour Facility (PLF), so that employers in   Australia are both aware of and can more easily identify workers in the Pacific that meet their requirements. In the short- to medium-term, PICs could respond to Australia’s labor demand by undertaking measures to expand participation of their citizens in labor mobility programs, including the Pacific Labour Scheme. Upskilling of workers in areas where there is likely to be demand is an obvious priority. At a technical level, ensuring appropriate accreditation to Australian standards will be necessary in some (but not all) occupations. More broadly, enhancement of ‘work ready skills’, along with support for engaging with employers and applying for jobs, would help improve the likelihood of Pacific Islanders gaining employment under such schemes. PIC governments could do more to streamline mobilization procedures so that they are responsive and ‘friendly’ to employers. Marketing and outreach to employers should be developed in the medium-term. Sending countries can also lower labor migration costs by reducing fees for medical exams and shortening deployment- processing time by streamlining procedures. 40. Pacific Step-up is one of Australia’s highest foreign policy priorities, highlighted in Australia’s 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper (https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/minisite/static/4ca0813c- 585e-4fe1-86eb-de665e65001a/fpwhitepaper/index.html) and 2016 Defense White Paper (https://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/) as of fundamental importance to Australia. The Step-up was first announced in September 2016 as a ‘step-change’ in the way Australia would engage the region, responding to and recognizing the broad-ranging challenges of the region, including: strengthening climate and disaster resilience; sustained economic growth; and support to promote healthy, educated, inclusive populations. 64 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 REFERENCES 65 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: World Bank ADB. (2020). “Asian Development Outlook 2020: What Australian Department of Health. (2020). “Keeping Drives Innovation in Asia?”. Asian Development Bank, Communities Safe from Coronavirus: Remote Area Travel Manila. Restrictions – Version 1 April 8, 2020”. Accessed at https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/ Ackman, M. and Tautalaaso, T. (2020). “COVID-19 and documents/2020/04/keeping-communities-safe-from- Pacific Labour”. The Lowy Institute. Accessed at coronavirus-remote-area-travel-restrictions.pdf https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/covid-19- and-pacific-labour. Australian Government. (2020). Vacancy Report: June 2020. https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/ Adams-Prassl, A., Bonea, T., Marta, G., and Rauh, C. GainInsights/VacancyReport (2020). “Inequality in the Impact of the Coronavirus Shock: New Survey Evidence for the UK”. Cambridge- Baig, A., Hall, B., Jenkins, P., Lamarre, E., and McCarthy, INET Working Paper Series, April 1, 2020. B. (2020). “The COVID-19 recovery will be digital: A plan for the first 90 days”. Mckinsey Digital, May 14, 2020, Aaronson, S. and Alba, F. (2020). “The Unemployment Accessed at https://www.mckinsey.com/business- Impacts of COVID-19: Lessons from the Great functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-covid-19- Recession”. Brookings Institute (blog). Accessed at recovery-will-be-digital-a-plan-for-the-first-90-days https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/04/15/ the-unemployment-impacts-of-covid-19-lessons-from- Ball, R. (2019). “Labour Demand in Australian Aged and the-great-recession Disability Care: Implications for the Pacific Labour Scheme”. Pacific Labour Mobility Working Paper. ANZ Research. (2020). “Pacific Insight,” March. Ball, R. (2019). “Labour Demand in the Tourism, Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2020a). “Weekly Payroll Accommodation, and Hospitality Industry”, Pacific Jobs and Wages in Australia, Week ending May 2, 2020: Labour Mobility Working Paper. Jobs by Industry Sub-division”. Published May 19, 2020 at https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ Carranza, E. T., Farole, U., Gentilini, M., Morgandi, T., Latestproducts/6160.0.55.001Main%20Features7 Packard, I., Santos, and Weber, M. (2020). “Managing the Features7Week%20ending%202%20May%202020? Employment Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis: Policy opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno= Options for Relief and Restructuring,” World Bank. 6160.0.55.001&issue=Week%20ending%202%20May% 202020&num=&view= Child, J., Farmer, R., Smith, T., and Tesvic, J. (2020). “As physical doors close, new digital doors swing open”. Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2020b). “Weekly Payroll Mckinsey Insights, May 21, 2020, Accessed at Jobs and Wages in Australia, Week ending May 2, 2020: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/ Jobs by Statistical Area 4”. Published May 19, 2020 at as-physical-doors-close-new-digital-doors-swing-open https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@. nsf/Latestproducts/6160.0.55.001Main%20 Curtain, R., Dornan, M., Howes, and S., Sherrell, H. Features6Week%20ending%202%20May% (2018). “Pacific seasonal workers: Learning from the 202020?opendocument&tabname= contrasting temporary migration outcomes in Australian Summary&prodno=6160.0.55.001&issue= and New Zealand horticulture”. Asia Pacific Policy Week%20ending%202%20May%202020&num=&view= Studies, 5, pp462-480. Accessed at: https://onlinelibrary. wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/app5.261 Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2020c). “Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages in Australia, Week ending May 2, 2020: Damon, C., Williams, M., and Barker-Perez, E. (2020). Jobs and Wages by Industry”. Published May 19, 2020 at “Rapid Gender Analysis COVID-19: Pacific Region”. https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@. CARE, March 26, 2020. Accessed at https://www.care. nsf/Latestproducts/6160.0.55.001Main%20 org.au/rapid-gender-analysis-covid-19/ Features5Week%20ending%202%20May%202020? opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno= Deming, David, J. (2017). “The growing importance of 6160.0.55.001&issue=Week%20ending%202%20 social skills in the labor market”. NBER Working Paper May%202020&num=&view= 21473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Accessed at https://www.nber.org/ system/files/working_papers/w21473/w21473.pdf 66 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 DFAT. (2020). “Joint Statement by the Co-Convenors of a IFC. (2020). “IFC is Supporting Solomon Islands Meeting of Pacific Women Leaders, Australian Foreign Companies Through the COVID-19 Crisis,” June 1. Minister and Minister for Women Marise Payne, and Accessed at https://ifcextapps.ifc.org/IFCExt/ Samoan Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Natural Pressroom/IFCPressRoom.nsf/0/ Resources and the Environment Fiame Naomi Mata”. A8FEF1C100B5D2788525857A000C1695 Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Canberra, A.C.T, June 4, 2020. ILO. (2015). “Samoa National Action Plan on Youth Employment”. International Labor Organization, Genève. Dingel, J.I., and Neiman, B. (2020). “How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?”. NBER Working Paper No. 26948, ILO. (2020a). “ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. work. Sixth edition”. International Labor Organization, Genève, 23 September 2020. Dutta, P., Andrews, C., de Montesquiou, A., Clay, T., and Chaudhary, S. (2020). “Economic Inclusion for the ILO. (2020b). “COVID-19 and Employment in the Tourism Poorest and COVID-19: Adaptation and Early Priorities for Sector: Impact and Response in Asia and the Pacific”. Medium-and Longer-Term Recovery”. Draft Policy Note, International Labour Organization, April 24. June 18. World Bank. ILO. (2020c). “ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of Fiji Bureau of Statistics and International Labour work. Third edition”. International Labor Organization, Organization. (2018). Fiji employment and unemployment April 29. survey 2015-2016. Suva. International Monetary Fund. (2020). “Pacific Islands Fiji Ministry of Economy. (2020). “2020-2021 National Threatened by COVID-19”. IMF Country Focus. May 27. Budget Address.” Accessed at http://www.economy.gov. fj/images/Budget/budgetdocuments/address/2020-- Jones, L.T., and Mc-Gavin, P.A. (2015). “Grappling Afresh 2021-National-Budget-Address.pdf with Labour Resource Challenges in Papua New Guinea: A Framework for Moving Forward”. Institute of National Fleming, S. (2019). “These 4 trends are shaping the Affairs, Discussion Paper No. 96, Port Moresby. future of your job”. World Economic Forum. Accessed at https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/02/these-4- Kahn, B., Lange, F., and Wiczer, D.G. (2020). “Labor trends-are-shaping-the-future-of-your-job/ demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy posting and UI claims”. NBER Working Paper 27061, Forsythe, E., Kahn, L. B., Lange, F., & Wiczer, D. G. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, M.A. (2020). “Labor Demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims”. (Working Kochhar, R., and Barroso, A. (2020). “Young Workers Paper No. 27061; Working Paper Series). National Bureau Likely to Be Hard Hit as COVID-19 Strikes a Blow to of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27061 Restaurants and Other Service Sector Jobs”. Pew Research Center (blog), March 27, 2020. Accessed at Gentilini, U., Almenfi, M., Dale, P., Lopez, A.V., and Zafar, https://pewrsr.ch/3bxQNs1 U. (2020). “Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures”. Labour Market Information Portal. (2020a). “Australian July 10. World Bank. Government Vacancy Report April 2020”. pp. 1-9. Accessed at https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/ Himelein, K., Waldersee, J., and Wirapati, B.A. (2020). GainInsights/VacancyReport Papua New Guinea High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19 Impacts: Results of round one. World Bank, Labour Market Information Portal. (2020b). “Impacts of Washington, DC. (forthcoming). COVID-19 on Businesses – update on future staffing expectations”. Australia. Accessed at https://lmip.gov.au/ Ibisworld. (2020). “Industries to Benefit From a Weaker default.aspx?LMIP/Gaininsights/COVIDInformation/ AUD Amid COVID-19 Pandemic”. Ibisworld (blog). April 6, ResearchandInsights 2020. Accessed at https://www.ibisworld.com/industry- insider/coronavirus-insights/industries-to-benefit-from-a- weaker-aud-amid-covid-19-pandemic/ 67 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Labour Market Information Portal. (2020c). “Jobs in Schmillen, A. (2020). “From Jobs Crisis to Jobs Recovery: Demand Employer Survey – 4 May to 29 May 2020”. A Practical Guide to the Jobs Response to COVID-19 in Accessed at https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/ East Asia and the Pacific”. May 27. World Bank. GainInsights/COVIDInformation/ResearchandInsights Schwandt, H. (2019). “Recession Graduates: The Labour Market Information Portal. (2020d). “Occupational Long-Lasting Effects of an Unlucky Draw”. SIEPR Policy Risks from COVID-19 – Analysis using Physical Proximity Brief, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. and Exposure to Disease Data”. Accessed at https:// public.tableau.com/profile/occupation.and.industry. Senate Select Committee on COVID-19. (2020a). analysis#!/vizhome/COVID19OccupationRiskAssessment “Australian Government’s response to the COVID-19 Top200EmployingOccupationsbyIndustry/Dashboard1 pandemic”. Commonwealth of Australia, Published May 28, 2020 at https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/ Labour Market Information Portal. (2020e). “Regional committees/commsen/a3af0917-dc51-4d01-a86f- projections – five years to May 2024”. Accessed at 69153eb93040/toc_pdf/Senate%20Select%20 https://lmip.gov.au/PortalFile.axd?FieldID=2787738&.xlsx Committee%20on%20COVID-19_2020_05_28_7741. pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22 Labour Market Information Portal. (2020f). “Jobs in committees/commsen/a3af0917-dc51-4d01-a86f- Demand Employer Survey – Dashboard as of May 8, 69153eb93040/0000%22 2020”. Accessed May 15, 2020 at https://lmip.gov.au/ default.aspx?LMIP/Gaininsights/COVIDInformation/ Senate Select Committee on COVID-19. (2020b). ResearchandInsights “Australian Government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic”. Commonwealth of Australia, Published May Labour Market Information Portal. (2020g). “Occupation 28, 2020 at https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/ projections – five years to May 2024”. Accessed at committees/commsen/a3af0917-dc51-4d01-a86f- https://lmip.gov.au/PortalFile.axd?FieldID=2787735&.xlsx 69153eb93040/toc_pdf/Senate%20Select%20 Committee%20on%20COVID-19_2020_05_28_7741. Moroz, H., Shrestha, M., and Testaverde, M. (2020). pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22 “Potential Responses to the COVID-19 Outbreak in committees/commsen/a3af0917-dc51-4d01-a86f- Support of Migrant Workers”. Live note. World Bank 69153eb93040/0000%22 Naivalurua, N. (2020). “Schools to Remain Closed until Tonga Statistics Department (TSD). (2017). “Tonga 2016 No Cases of COVID-19 in Fiji”. Fiji Village. Published May Census of Population and Housing. Volume 1: Basic 22, 2020 at https://www.fijivillage.com/news/Schools-to- Tables and Administrative Report”. p.11. Tonga Statistics remain-closed-until-no-cases-of-COVID-19-in-Fiji-8x5f4r/ Department. Nuku’alofa. Tonga Park, C.Y., Abiad, A., Narayanan, B., Banzon, E., Samson, Telecommunications Radiocommunications and J., Aftab, A., and Tayag, M.C. (2020). “An Updated Broadcasting Regulator (TRBR). (2019). Assessment of the Economic Impact of COVID-19”. Telecommunications Sector Report 2019. Vanuatu. Asian Development Bank, Manila. Accessed at https://doi.org/10.22617/BRF200144-2 UN DESA. (2020). “Protecting and Mobilizing Youth in COVID-19 Responses”. Department of Economic and RBF. (2020). “Economic Review: May 2020”. RBF Social Affairs, United Nations. Accessed at https://www. Economic Review, vol. 37, no. 5, Reserve Bank of Fiji. un.org/development/desa/youth/news/2020/05/covid-19/ Reuters. (2020). “Australia’s economy is in recession: UN ESCAP. (2018). “Broadband connectivity in Pacific Treasurer says after first quarter GDP contracts”. CNBC. Islands Countries”. Asia-Pacific Information Published June 2, 2020 at https://www.cnbc. Superhighway (AP-IS) Working Paper Series. Economic com/2020/06/03/australias-economy-is-in-recession- and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), treasurer-says-after-first-quarter-gdp-contracts.html United Nations. Accessed at https://www.unescap.org/ sites/default/files/PACIFIC_PAPER_Final_Publication _1_3.pdf 68 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Vanuatu Tourism Office and Department of Tourism. World Bank. (2017c). “Pacific Possible: Labor mobility”. (2020). “Survey Results: National Tourism Business The World Bank, Washington D.C. Impacts Survey, TC Harold and COVID-19 Pandemic”. April 24, 2020. World Bank. (2020a). “Global Economic Prospects”. June. The World Bank, Washington D.C. Voigt-Graf, C. (2016). “Opportunities for Pacific Islander’s in PNG’s construction industry”. The National Research World Bank. (2020b). “Migration and Development Brief Institute. Vanuatu. 32: COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens”. The World Bank, Washington D.C. Warr, P. (2020). “Food security in the Indo-Pacific following COVID-19”. East Asia Forum. Accessed at World Bank. (2020c). “From Containment To Recovery”. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/06/05/food-security- East Asia and Pacific Economic Update October 2020, in-the-indo-pacific-following-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR3Wy1 The World Bank, Washington D.C. RXqm9BALtrjFdNu_TFbUu3yCwkS8inJrTo- 95by6hSpjiio6fdMNU World Bank. (2020d). “World Bank Education and COVID-19”. The World Bank, Washington D.C. Accessed Weber, M. (2020). “Digital public workers – a viable policy at https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/ option for the COVID-19 jobs crisis?”. Confronting the interactive/2020/03/24/world-bank-education-and- Jobs Impacts of COVID-19 Blog Series No. 8, Jobs covid-19 Group, The World Bank, Washington D.C. Accessed at https://www.jobsanddevelopment.org/digital-public- World Bank. (2020e). “Poverty Impact of COVID-19 in the works-a-viable-policy-option-for-the-covid-19- Pacific Island Countries”. 27 March, mimeo. coronavirus-jobs-crisis/ World Bank. (2020f). “Papua New Guinea Economic WebWire. (2020). “IFC Is Supporting Solomon Islands Update in the Time of COVID-19: From Relief to Companies Through The COVID-19 Crisis”. Accessed Recovery”. July 2020, The World Bank, Washington D.C. June 5, 2020 at https://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel. asp?aId=259918 World Bank. (2020g). “Papua New Guinea Economic Update: Facing Economic Headwinds”. January 2020, WEF. (2016). “The future of Jobs - Employment, Skills and The World Bank, Washington D.C. Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution”. Global Challenge Insight Report. World Economic Forum. World Health Organization. (2020). “Novel Coronavirus Accessed at http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_ (COVID-19) Health Sector Preparedness and Response Future_of_Jobs.pdf – Joint External Situation Report #15”. May 16, 2020. Accessed at https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/ WGEA. (2020). “Gendered Impact of COVID-19”. wpro---documents/dps/outbreaks-and-emergencies/ Workplace Gender Equality Agency, Sydney, N.S.W. covid-19/covid-19-external-situation-report-15. Accessed at https://www.wgea.gov.au/topics/gendered- pdf?sfvrsn=96beb648_2 impact-of-covid-19 WTTC. (2020). “Travel & Tourism: Economic Impact from World Bank. (2017a). “Assessment of the Potential Impact COVID-19”. Word Travel & Tourism Council, April 2020. of the ICT Revolution in the Pacific on Economic Growth, Employment, and Government Revenue”. Pacific Possible Technical Note, The World Bank, Washington D.C. World Bank. (2017b). “Republic of Fiji Systematic Country Diagnostic”. The World Bank, Washington D.C. 69 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 ANNEX 3. APTC ANNEX AUSTRALIAN PACIFIC TRAINING COALITION 70 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: World Bank The Australian Pacific Training Coalition (APTC) is The APTC is also partnering with the Pacific Labour funded by the Australian government with the aim of Facility (PLF) of the Australian government to provide improving technical and vocational education in the workers to businesses located in rural and regional Pacific region. The center offers 21 courses across Australia. This provides Pacific Islanders with a seven disciplines in five PICs: Fiji, PNG, Samoa, gateway to the Pacific Labour Scheme (PLS) and the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu. Upon completion, Seasonal Work Programme (SWP) offered by the participants may receive Certificate Level II, up to Australian government. diplomas. These certificates and diplomas are To date, the APTC offers the following courses across recognized by the Australian Qualifications five campuses. All of the courses offered have a Framework. designated Level III Certificate, which is Level 3 Apart from the technical competencies, the center according to the Australia Qualification of the ANZSCO offers a labor mobility track, wherein participants are Skills Level. To achieve Level 3 status, however, the taught skills that may be needed by overseas participant should also have two years of on-the-job employers, including topics on financial literacy and training apart from the certificate. personal well-being among others. DISCIPLINE CERTIFICATE COURSE FIJI PNG SAMOA SOLOMON VANUATU ISLANDS Built III Carpentry x x x x Environment Built III Painting and Decorating x Environment Built III Plumbing x Environment Built III Wall and Floor Tiling x Environment Community III Individual Support (Aging, x Services Home and Community) Education III Education Support x x Engineering III Air-conditioning and x Refrigeration Engineering III Light Vehicle Mechanical x x Technology 71 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 DISCIPLINE CERTIFICATE COURSE FIJI PNG SAMOA SOLOMON VANUATU ISLANDS Engineering III Engineering x x - Mechanical Trade (Maintenance) Diesel Fitting Pathway Engineering III Engineering x x - Mechanical Trade (Maintenance) Fitting and/or Turning Pathway Engineering III Engineering x x - Fabrication Trade Engineering III Electrotechnology x Electrician Engineering II Electrotechnology x (Career Start) Fashion III Applied Fashion x Design and Technology Hospitality III Commercial x x x and Tourism Cookery Hospitality III Tourism x and Tourism Hospitality III Hospitality x x x and Tourism 72 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 DISCIPLINE CERTIFICATE COURSE FIJI PAPUA SAMOA SOLOMON VANUATU NEW ISLANDS GUINEA Built Environment III Carpentry x x x x Built Environment III Painting and x Decorating Built Environment III Plumbing x Built Environment III Wall and x Floor Tiling Community Services III Individual Support x (Aging, Home and Community) Education III Education Support x x Engineering III Air-conditioning x and Refrigeration Engineering III Light Vehicle x x Mechanical Technology Engineering III Engineering x x - Mechanical Trade (Maintenance) Diesel Fitting Pathway Engineering III Engineering x x - Mechanical Trade (Maintenance) Fitting and/or Turning Pathway Engineering III Engineering x x - Fabrication Trade Engineering III Electrotechnology x Electrician 73 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 DISCIPLINE CERTIFICATE COURSE FIJI PAPUA SAMOA SOLOMON VANUATU NEW ISLANDS GUINEA Engineering II Electrotechnology x (Career Start) Fashion III Applied Fashion x Design and Technology Hospitality and III Commercial x x x Tourism Cookery Hospitality and III Tourism x Tourism Hospitality and III Hospitality x x x Tourism 74 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 75 PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 Photo: Darren James