2015/32 Supported by k nKonw A A weldegdeg e ol n oNtoet e s eSrei r e ise s f ofro r p r&a c t hteh e nEenregryg y Etx itcrea c t i v e s G l o b a l P r a c t i c e The bottom line Tracking Progress Toward Sustainable Energy for All Where does the region stand on the quest for sustainable in South Asia energy for all? The 2010 electrification rate in South Asia Why is this important? databases—technical measures. This note is based on that frame- was 74 percent, and 38 percent work (World Bank 2014). SE4ALL will publish an updated version of of the population had access Tracking regional trends is critical to monitoring the GTF in 2015. to nonsolid fuel for cooking. the progress of the Sustainable Energy for All The primary indicators and data sources that the GTF uses to The share of renewables in the (SE4ALL) initiative track progress toward the three SE4ALL goals are summarized below. energy mix is dominated by In declaring 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for • Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured biomass and declining. Energy All,” the UN General Assembly established three global objectives by the percentage of the population with an electricity intensity is on par with the to be accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern connection and the percentage of the population with access to global average but declining energy services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in nonsolid fuels.2 These data are collected using household surveys more rapidly than elsewhere. the global energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement and reported in the World Bank’s Global Electrification Database India and Bangladesh have in energy efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012). and the World Health Organization’s Household Energy Database. far to go on access, and, throughout the region, growth in The SE4ALL objectives are global, with individual countries setting • Renewable energy. The share of renewable energy in the renewables lags behind growth their own national targets in a way that is consistent with the overall energy mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy in energy demand. spirit of the initiative. Because countries differ greatly in their ability consumption that is derived from renewable energy resources. to pursue the three objectives, some will make more rapid progress Data used to calculate this indicator are obtained from energy in one area while others will excel elsewhere, depending on their balances published by the International Energy Agency and the respective starting points and comparative advantages as well as on United Nations. the resources and support that they are able to marshal. • Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency Elisa Portale is an energy economist in To sustain momentum for the achievement of the SE4ALL is approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) the Energy Sector objectives, a means of charting global progress to 2030 is needed. of energy intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total Management Assistance The World Bank and the International Energy Agency led a consor- primary energy consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) Program (ESMAP) of the tium of 15 international agencies to establish the SE4ALL Global measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to World Bank’s Energy and Extractives Tracking Framework (GTF), which provides a system for regular calculate energy intensity are obtained from energy balances Global Practice. global reporting, based on rigorous—yet practical, given available published by the International Energy Agency and the United Joeri de Wit is an Nations. energy economist in 1 The universal access goal will be achieved when every person on the planet has access the Bank’s Energy and to modern energy services provided through electricity, clean cooking fuels, clean heating fuels, Extractives Global and energy for productive use and community services. The term “modern cooking solutions” refers to solutions that involve electricity or gaseous fuels (including liquefied petroleum gas), 2 Solid fuels are defined to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural Practice. or solid/liquid fuels paired with stoves exhibiting overall emissions rates at or near those of and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed biomass (such as pellets and briquettes), and liquefied petroleum gas (www.sustainableenergyforall.org). other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). 2 T r a c k i n g P r o g r ess T o wa r d S u stai n ab l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S o u t h A sia This note uses GTF data to provide a regional and country Figure 1. The electricity access deficit in the region in 2010 perspective on the three SE4ALL goals in South Asia (SAS).3 The first section considers energy access. The following sections look at the renewable energy and energy efficiency goals. All data underlying the Rural information in this note can be found online at http://data.world- With access 92% bank.org/data-catalog/sustainable-energy-for-all. 74% Without access “The challenge of 26% Urban 8% electrification remains What progress has been made toward universal significant in most of the access to energy services? region’s countries, and The 2010 electrification rate in South Asia was 74 particularly in India, where Source: World Bank 2014. percent, and 38 percent of the population had access 306 million people lack to nonsolid fuel for cooking access to electricity. Some Figure 2. Electrification rates and deficits by country, 2010 Achieving universal access to modern energy services is the “first countries of the region among equals” of the three complementary goals of SE4ALL. Despite a. Electrification rates (%) Access deficit b.  have relatively high rates of progress in this region, a huge energy access deficit remains. (millions of people) electrification—Sri Lanka, Electricity. Access to electricity in flexible, reliable, and sustain- 85 percent; Pakistan, 91 able forms brings a range of social and economic benefits, enabling Maldives 100 Maldives 0 Pakistan 91 Bhutan 0.2 people to leap from poverty to a better future, enhancing the quality percent; and Maldives, 100 Sri Lanka 85 Sri Lanka 3.1 of household life, and stimulating the broader economy. In 2010 the Nepal 76 Nepal 7.1 percent.” SAS region had an overall electrification rate of 74 percent, meaning India 75 Pakistan 15.0 Bhutan 72 Afghanistan 18.5 that fully a quarter of the region’s people lack access to electricity. Bangladesh 55 Bangladesh 66.6 That is roughly 417 million people, more than a third of the 1.2 billion Afghanistan 41 India 306 people worldwide who lack access, with the bulk of them living in Source: World Bank 2014. India. Around 92 percent of people without electricity live in rural areas (383 million) (figure 1). The challenge of electrification remains significant in most of the years, with SAS accounting for 38 percent of that figure Still, the level region’s countries, and particularly in India, where 306 million people of access to electricity in SAS is well below the global average, which lack access to electricity (figure 2). Some countries of the region have increased from 76 percent to 83 percent over the same 20 years. relatively high rates of electrification—Sri Lanka, 85 percent; Pakistan, Between 1990 and 2010, 647 million people gained access to 91 percent; and Maldives, 100 percent. electricity. During this time, the SAS population expanded by 489 The share of region’s population with access to electricity rose million. Thus, growth in access to electricity outpaced population from 50 percent (566 million people) in 1990 to approximately 74 growth by about 158 million people. percent (1.2 billion people) in 2010, the fastest rate of growth over Most of the incremental electrification in the region over the the period of any world region. Globally, the number of people gain- period 1990–2010 occurred in rural areas, where electrification ing access to electricity services increased by 1.7 billion over the 20 increased by 439 million, more than twice the increase in urban areas (209 million people). The urban electrification rate rose from 3 For a list of countries that fall under South Asia according to the World Bank regional 86 to 93 percent; the rural rate, more steeply, from 36 to 66 percent classification system, see http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-and-lending-groups (figure 3). 3 T r a c k i n g P r o g r ess T o wa r d S u stai n ab l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S o u t h A sia Figure 3. Progress in access to electricity in urban and rural areas, 1990–2010 Rural 311 439 383 Population with access in 1990 Incremental access in 1990-2010 “Between 1990 and 2010, Population without access in 2010 Urban 256 209 34 647 million people gained access to electricity. Total 566 647 417 During this time, the SAS 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 population expanded by population (million) 489 million. Thus, growth Source: World Bank 2014. in access to electricity outpaced population growth by about 158 Figure 4. Annual increases in access to electricity, 1990–2010 Cooking fuels. The World Health Organization million people.” estimates that in 2012 about 4.3 million deaths 30 3 Annual incremental population growth occurred worldwide because of exposure to annual growth in access (%) 25 Annual incremental access growth household air pollution caused by smoke from the Annual growth in access (%) population (million) 20 2 incomplete combustion of fuels such as wood, coal, and kerosene. Use of such fuels for cooking also 15 poses substantial risks to safety, causing burns and 10 1 injuries. 5 In 2010, just 38 percent of the region’s popula- tion had access to nonsolid fuel for cooking.4 More 0 0 India Pakistan Bangladesh Afghanistan Nepal Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives than 1 billion people still used solid fuel for cooking, a very substantial share of the 2.8 billion people Source: World Bank 2014. globally who do so. The challenge of access to nonsolid fuel remains India made particularly rapid progress over the period, electri- particularly significant in most countries of the fying an average of 23 million people every year after 1990, for an region. Six of the eight SAS countries have an access rate that is annual growth rate of 1.9 percent (compared with the global average below 50 percent of the population (figure 5), making SAS the world of 1.3 percent). Nevertheless, in 2010, India still had the region’s region with the lowest access rate. Maldives (92 percent) and Bhutan largest access deficit (figure 4). Pakistan stands out as having made (60 percent) have the highest levels of access in the region. the most progress relative to its size, electrifying 2.6 percent of its population annually. In all SAS countries, the expansion of the population with access to electricity has at least kept pace with 4 Solid fuels are defined to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural population growth. and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed biomass (such as pellets and briquettes), and other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). 4 T r a c k i n g P r o g r ess T o wa r d S u stai n ab l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S o u t h A sia The share of the region’s population with access Figure 6. Annual increases in access to nonsolid fuels, 1990–2010 to nonsolid fuel for cooking rose from 13 percent 30 4 (148 million people) in 1990 to approximately 38 Annual incremental population growth annual growth in access (%) Annual incremental access growth percent (612 million people) in 2010, well below the 25 Annual growth in access (%) 3 population (million) global access rate, which rose from 47 percent (2.5 20 billion people) in 1990 to approximately 59 percent “In 2010, just 38 percent of (4.1 billion people) in 2010. 15 2 the region’s population had Between 1990 and 2010, 464 million people 10 1 access to nonsolid fuel for gained access to nonsolid fuel, while the region’s 5 population increased by 489 million. Thus population cooking. More than 1 billion 0 0 growth outstripped growth in access by approx- India Pakistan Afghanistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Nepal Bhutan Maldives people still used solid imately 25 million people. The global population Source: World Bank 2014. fuel for cooking, a very with access to nonsolid fuel increased by 1.6 substantial share of the 2.8 billion people over the period 1990–2010, and SAS How has the share of renewable energy evolved? billion people globally who represented 30 percent of that increase India has made impressive progress in access to nonsolid fuel, The share of renewables in the energy mix is do so.” providing access to 20 million people annually since 1990, for an dominated by biomass and declining annual growth rate of 1.6 percent (figure 6), compared with the global average annual increase of 1.1 percent over the period. High annual Global consumption of renewable energy grew from 40 exajoules (EJ) growth rates were also achieved by Pakistan (1.4 percent) and in 1990 to almost 60 EJ in 2010. Meanwhile, global total final energy Bhutan (2.2 percent). consumption (TFEC) grew at a comparable pace of 1.1 percent during 1990–2000 and 2.0 percent during 2000–10. As a result, the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix remained relatively stable, rising from 16.6 percent in 1990 to 18 percent in 2010. Figure 5. Access to nonsolid fuels by country, 2010 In SAS, the levels of penetration of renewable energy are much higher, although renewables’ share in TFEC declined from just over a. Access to nonsolid fuel (%) b. Deficit in access to nonsolid 60 percent in 1990 to under 50 percent in 2010 (figure 7). Traditional fuel (millions of people biomass accounts for 78 percent of the total 9.7 terajoules (TJ) of without access) renewable energy that is consumed. The remainder is derived primar- Maldives 92 Maldives 0 ily from modern biomass and hydropower.5 Other renewables such as Bhutan 60 Bhutan 0.3 biogas, solar, and wind account for less than 1 percent of TFEC. India 42 Sri Lanka 15.6 Pakistan 36 Nepal 24.6 Renewable energy accounts for 42–46 percent of TFEC in Sri Lanka 25 Afghanistan 26.7 Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan; 62 percent in Sri Lanka; and 88 Nepal 18 Pakistan 110.8 Afghanistan 15 Bangladesh 134.9 Bangladesh 9 India 705.0 5 The UN Food and Agriculture Organization defines traditional biomass as “woodfuels, agricultural by-products, and dung burned for cooking and heating purposes.” In developing countries, traditional biomass is still widely harvested and used in an unsustainable and unsafe Source: World Bank 2014. way. It is mostly traded informally and noncommercially. So-called modern biomass, by contrast, is produced in a sustainable manner from solid wastes and residues from agriculture and forestry. The informal term “modern renewables” as used in this note denotes all renewables except for traditional biomass. 5 T r a c k i n g P r o g r ess T o wa r d S u stai n ab l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S o u t h A sia Figure 7.  Total final consumption of renewable energy percent, and only marginally faster than traditional biomass, at 1.3 by technology, 1990–2010 percent. No significant consumption of other renewable resources 12 70 was registered. Other RE Although renewables’ share in TFEC decreased between 1990 10 60 Hydro and 2010 in all countries of the region, the story is more varied Modern biomass when one focuses solely on modern renewables (figure 10). As a Traditional biomass “Traditional biomass 8 50 RE share in TFEC percentage of TFEC, modern renewables increased in Sri Lanka and accounts for 78 percent of 40 Nepal, held steady in Bangladesh, and decreased in Pakistan and exajoules percent the total 9.7 terajoules (TJ) 6 India. Modern biomass accounted for the bulk of these shifts, except 30 in Nepal where hydropower and biogas consumption accounted for of renewable energy that is 4 the 2 percent increase in the penetration of modern renewables. 20 consumed. The remainder is derived primarily 2 10 How does the region fare on energy efficiency? from modern biomass 0 0 Energy intensity is on par with the global average and hydropower. Other 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 but declining more rapidly renewables such as biogas, Source: World Bank 2014. Energy intensity. Globally, energy intensity decreased by –1.3 per- solar, and wind account cent annually (in CAGR terms) over the 20 years between 1990 and for less than 1 percent of percent of TFEC in Nepal (figure 8). Traditional biomass dominates 2010. With this as the starting point for measuring future progress in TFEC.” in Bangladesh, whereas Sri Lanka derives about 20 percent of TFEC global energy efficiency, the SE4ALL global objective is therefore an from modern biomass. All of the region’s countries derive a small annual reduction in energy intensity of -2.6 percent for the period share of their energy from hydropower. 2010–30. Modern renewables grew very quickly in CAGR terms between In SAS, the CAGR of energy intensity averaged -2.1 percent 1990 and 2010, especially wind (38 percent) and solar (20 percent) between 1990 and 2010. By 2010, energy intensity in the region (figure 9). Modern biomass grew considerably more slowly, at 1.6 stood at 7.8 MJ/$2005, just slightly below the global average of Figure 8. Renewable energy’s share of total final energy consumption, 2010 Traditional biomass World Modern biomass SAS Hydro Liquid biofuels Nepal Wind Sri Lanka Solar Biogas Pakistan Geothermal India Waste Bangladesh 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 percent Source: World Bank 2014. 6 T r a c k i n g P r o g r ess T o wa r d S u stai n ab l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S o u t h A sia Figure 9. Annual regional and world growth in renewable energy consumption by technology, 1990–2010 40 38.0 compound annual growth rate (%) 35 30 SAS 25.0 World “Maldives is the only 25 20.0 20 country in which energy 15.8 16.7 15 intensity increased—and 11.1 11.4 10 5.1 6.6 at the dramatic rate of 5 2.8 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 1.2 6.5 percent per year. 0 Traditional Modern Hydro Geothermal Waste Liquid Solar Biogas Wind Afghanistan and Bhutan biomass biomass biofuels experienced the most Source: World Bank 2014. rapid reductions in energy intensity while representing, respectively, Figure 10. Change in consumption of modern forms of renewable Energy intensity is an imperfect proxy for energy efficiency. the least and most energy energy in selected countries as a percentage of TFEC, This is because energy intensity is affected by other factors, 1990–2000 such as shifts in the structure of the economy over time, typically intensive countries of the from less energy-intensive agriculture to higher energy-intensive region in 2010.” Modern biomass industry and then back toward lower energy-intensive services. Sri Lanka Hydro In SAS, improvements in energy efficiency between 1990 and 2010 Nepal Liquid biofuels were substantially offset by a shift toward more energy intensive Wind Bangladesh Solar sectors. It appears that energy intensity in industry and “other Pakistan Biogas sectors”6 converged to global average levels, while energy intensity Geothermal in the agricultural sector remains less than half the global average India Waste (figure 12). -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Energy savings. Energy savings in a given year are calculated percent as the difference between (i) the energy that would have been consumed in that year given the GDP and the level of energy Source: World Bank 2014. intensity in 1990, and (ii) actual energy consumption in that year. As a result of a steady reduction in energy intensity since 1990, SAS saved 19 exajoules of energy in 2010 alone, or 55 percent of the energy the 7.9 MJ/$2005 (figure 14). Within the region, Maldives is the only region consumed in that year (figure 13). country in which energy intensity increased—and at the dramatic rate of 6.5 percent per year. Afghanistan and Bhutan experienced 6 Final energy consumption can be broadly divided among the following major economic the most rapid reductions in energy intensity while representing, sectors: agriculture, industry, residential, transport, and services. For the purpose of the Global respectively, the least and most energy intensive countries of the Tracking Framework, residential, transport, and services are aggregated into a single category of “other sectors” (due to data limitations). Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposi- region in 2010. tion approach, we control for changes in economy wide energy intensity that are due to shifts in the relative weights of the industrial, agricultural and other sectors (in $2005 PPP terms). 7 T r a c k i n g P r o g r ess T o wa r d S u stai n ab l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S o u t h A sia Figure 11. Level of energy intensity in 2010 and change in level, 1990–2010 a. Primary energy intensity, 2010 b. Energy intensity CAGR, 1990–2010 World 7.9 World -1.3 SAS 7.7 SAS -2.1 “As a result of a steady Afghanistan 2.9 Afghanistan -6.8 reduction in energy Sri Lanka 4.3 Bhutan -4.3 intensity since 1990, SAS Bangladesh 5.9 India -2.4 India 7.8 Sri Lanka -2.1 saved 19 exajoules of Pakistan 8.5 Nepal -1.5 energy in 2010 alone, or 55 Maldives 9.3 Pakistan -0.8 Nepal 13.2 Bangladesh -0.7 percent of the energy the Bhutan 16.0 Maldives 6.4 0 5 10 15 20 -10 -5 0 5 10 region consumed in that percent MJ/$2005 year. Source: World Bank 2014. Figure 12. Energy intensity by sector, 1990 and 2010 Figure 13.  Energy savings owing to realized improvements in energy intensity, 1990–2010 Other sectors 7.4 World 5.5 60 Total primary energy supply 50 Primary energy savings 14.5 SAS 5.5 40 exajoules 9.0 30 World Industry 6.8 20 10.2 10 SAS 6.8 0 3.3 1990 2000 2010 Agriculture World 2.1 Energy intensity 1990 0.7 Energy intensity 2010 Source: World Bank 2014. SAS 1.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 MJ/$2005 PPP Where is the region headed? Source: World Bank 2014. India and Bangladesh have much to do on access, and, throughout the region, growth in renewables Much of the region’s achievements, in terms of savings, were lags behind growth in energy demand driven by India. The scale of the Indian economy is apparent from its primary energy supply, which, at 413 EJ, dwarfs the next largest Monitoring progress at the regional and country level provides a much market, Pakistan, at 56 EJ. However, in savings the difference is clearer picture of how the region is moving toward the SE4All goals. even more extreme, with energy savings in India amounting to With respect to access to modern energy supplies, SAS is 114 EJ between 1990 and 2010, or 92 percent of the region’s energy making rapid progress toward universal access. Gains in access savings. rates between 1990 and 2010 were on the order of 24 percent 8 T r a c k i n g P r o g r ess T o wa r d S u stai n ab l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n S o u t h A sia Figure 14. Cumulative primary energy supply, cumulative energy savings, and cumulative energy savings as a share of cumulative Make further primary energy supply, 1990–2010 connections a. Cumulative primary energy supply b. Cumulative energy savings c. Savings as a share of supply Live Wire 2014/28. “Tracking (exajoules) (exajoules) (percent) Progress Toward Providing India 413 India 114 Afghanistan 361 Sustainable Energy for All in Pakistan 56 Afghanistan 3 Bhutan 57 Bangladesh 17 Pakistan 3 India 28 East Asia and the Pacific,” by Nepal 7 Bangladesh 2 Sri Lanka 23 Elisa Portale and Joeri de Wit. Sri Lanka 7 Sri Lanka 2 Nepal 19 Bhutan 1 Nepal 1 Bangladesh 9 Live Wire 2014/29. “Tracking Afghanistan 1 Bhutan 1 Pakistan 4 Progress Toward Providing Maldives 0 Maldives 0 Maldives -63 Sustainable Energy for All in Eastern Europe and Central Asia,” by Elisa Portale and for electricity and 25 percent for nonsolid fuels. However, despite Given the scale of the challenge inherent in meeting the three Joeri de Wit. impressive recent gains, the scale of the access challenge in India SE4ALL goals, it is clear that a combination of bold policy measures and Bangladesh remains daunting. Half a billion people in the region coupled with a supportive regulatory and institutional environment is Live Wire 2014/30. “Tracking still lack access to electricity, and one billion people lack access to required to support the requisite ramping up of delivery capacity and Progress Toward Providing nonsolid cooking fuels. financial flows to the energy sector. Sustainable Energy for All Increasing the share of renewable energy in TFEC will also in Latin America and the present a challenge for the region. If current trends were to continue, Caribbean,” by Elisa Portale and Joeri de Wit. the expansion of renewable energy in the region would not even References keep pace with the projected expansion of energy demand. A SE4ALL (Sustainable Energy for All Initiative). 2012. In Support of the Live Wire 2014/31. “Tracking transition from traditional to modern biomass is critical, but the share Objective to Achieve Universal Access to Modern Energy Services Progress Toward Providing of modern biomass in TFEC actually decreased between 1990 and by 2030. Technical Report of Task Force 1: New York. http://www. Sustainable Energy for All in the 2010 in the region’s two largest economies, India and Pakistan. sustainableenergyforall.org/about-us. Middle East and North Africa,” With respect to energy efficiency, the region performed well. World Bank. 2014. Global Tracking Framework. Sustainable Energy for by Elisa Portale and Joeri de Wit. With a 2010 energy-intensity level that was slightly below the global All. Report 85415, Washington, DC. http://documents.worldbank. average, the region rapidly reduced its energy intensity between Live Wire 2014/33. “Tracking org/curated/en/2014/01/19164902/global-tracking-framework. 1990 and 2010 despite a transition toward more energy-intensive Progress Toward Providing sectors. The peer reviewer for this note was Sheoli Pargal, an economic adviser in Sustainable Energy for All in the World Bank’s Energy and Extractives Global Practice. Preparation of this Sub-Saharan Africa,” by Elisa note benefitted from comments by Morgan Bazilian, lead energy specialist in Portale and Joeri de Wit. the World Bank’s Energy and Extractives Global Practice, and Vivien Foster, a manager in that practice.