For Official Use Only CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CPS Data Country: Ethiopia CPS Year: FY13 CPS Period: FY13 – FY16 CLR Period: FY13-FY16 Date of this review: June 7, 2017 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory WBG Performance: Good Good 3. Executive Summary i. Ethiopia is a low income country—one of the eleven poorest in the world—with a GNI per capita of US$590 (current US$) in 2015. Its economy grew by 9.6 percent annually in real terms during the review period, faster than the Sub-Saharan Africa average (4.0 percent) and the rest of the world (2.6 percent), albeit the growth rate slowed to 6-7 percent in 2015-16 owing to a severe drought. The poverty headcount indicates that 33 percent of the population lived below the international poverty line of US$1.90 PPP per day in 2011. Ethiopia is among the most equal countries in the world. Inequality—with a Gini coefficient of 0.33—is low by international and Sub- Saharan Africa standards, and comparable with some OECD countries. Ethiopia made good progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) particularly in gender parity in primary education, child mortality, HIV/AIDS, and malaria. The country’s HDI ranking remained broadly at the same level between 2012 (173 out of 187) and 2015 (174 out of 187). Political stability prevailed during the review period, notwithstanding the initial uncertainty created by a change in leadership with the death of the long-serving Prime Minister. ii. The government set out its objectives in the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP I and II) whose main goal is for Ethiopia to become a lower middle-income country by 2025 through average annual real growth of 10-11 percent. While the public sector will continue playing an important role, the GTP, especially GTP II, places emphasis on private sector development and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), particularly in building an export-oriented manufacturing sector. The new government that took power just before the CPS was discussed by the Board in August 2012 affirmed its support for continued implementation of policies in the Growth and Transformation Plan, and for the WBG program in Ethiopia. In support of the government’s objectives, the WBG’s program pursued the strategic objectives of fostering competitiveness and employment, enhancing resilience and reducing vulnerabilities, and promoting good governance and state building. In line with the GTP, gender and climate were cross-cutting issues under the program, and IFC and MIGA contributed to competitiveness and employment. The selection of focus areas also was in line with broad areas identified subsequently as important by Ethiopia’s Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD). iii. Concerns remain about macroeconomic policies. The Ethiopian birr is overvalued by 20 to 40 percent according to IMF estimates, which poses a significant constraint to export CLR Review CLR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: Manager/Coordinator Juan José Fernández- Florence Charlier, Pablo Fajnzylber Ansola Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGEC Manager, IEGEC Surajit Goswami Takatoshi Kamezawa, Lourdes Pagaran Consultants, IEGHE Sr. Evaluation Officer, IEGEC CLRR Coordinator, IEGEC For Official Use Only CLR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group competitiveness, especially in manufacturing. In addition, interest rates are not allowed to be determined flexibly, and the foreign exchange market functioning needs to be improved through a market-based price setting mechanism for the exchange rate and an increase in exchange rate flexibility. In the banking area, the government would need to phase out the requirement that private banks invest in National Bank of Ethiopia bonds 27 percent of their credit to finance the Development Bank. The IMF has also recommended recently that to curb an external current account deficit of about 11 percent of GDP will require a tighter fiscal policy in the period ahead. iv. In FY16, Ethiopia was the largest IDA recipient, ahead of Vietnam (2nd) and Bangladesh (3rd). IDA approved US$6.7 billion in new commitments during the CPS period, mostly for investment project financing (IPFs) and three PforRs. Trust-funded activities that accounted for about $1.2 billion provided complementary financing, primarily in energy, and also for public finance and internal audit. This exceeded the proposed financing under the CPS/CPSPR of US$4.2 billion, although such plans covered only the proposed amounts through FY15. v. IEG rates the overall development outcome as Moderately Satisfactory. The program made good progress across focus areas and objectives. Under Focus Area I there was tangible progress on promoting a stable macroeconomic environment, increasing and improving infrastructure delivery, and fostering increased competitiveness and productivity. Progress fell short of program targets on regional energy integration in East Africa. In Focus Area II significant progress was made on both improving the delivery of social services and enhancing comprehensive social protection and risk management. In Focus Area III there was significant progress on enhancing public financial management, procurement, and accountability. Progress fell short, however, on improving public service performance management and responsiveness. vi. On balance, IEG rates WBG performance as Good. The WBG strategy addressed key challenges facing the country, emphasizing the need for structural transformation to increase competitiveness and productivity in line with GTP I and II. The combination of WBG interventions supported reforms across the three focus areas. The overall program was selective, and built on adequate country diagnostics and ASA support, and was based on consultations with the authorities. On the whole, the work across the WBG was well articulated to support the main elements of the program. The design of the results framework was adequate—with some pitfalls in indicator appropriateness, measurement, and realism. The causal chain between WBG interventions and objectives was fairly clear. Ethiopia’s portfolio at exit performed better than its comparators (Africa and Bank-wide) as measured by IEG’s outcome ratings (MS or better). There was good internal cooperation between the Bank and IFC, which was manifested particularly in fostering competitiveness and employment. MIGA provided guarantees for agribusiness and manufacturing, complementing well the work of the Bank and IFC. The Bank also worked effectively with development partners, such as the IMF on macroeconomic issues, and with others by leveraging IDA financing on a number of operations, including the Productive Safety Net Program. However, there were nine investigations by INT during the review period, of which five were substantiated cases of corruption and collusion in four projects. In addition, the Inspection Panel (IP) was involved on a claim of severe harm and human rights abuses under the Promotion of Basic Services Project. The IP report concluded that the involuntary taking of land and use of force were not a consequence of the project, but that the Bank had failed to assess fully and mitigate the risks arising from the government’s Commune Development Plan. According to the panel, as of February 2017, more than half of the Management Action Plan had been completed. vii. IEG agrees with the CLR lessons about the need for forward-looking innovative work to engage with the government on long term issues, and risk management and ongoing evaluation to bring the best in operations. It also concurs with the view that the Bank is at its best when it does not operate in isolation. viii. IEG adds the following lessons:  Bank-IFC cooperation can be effective even in a context of significant challenges to private sector development. In the case of Ethiopia, the number of jobs created by IFC in For Official Use Only CLR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group targeted manufacturing and services firms could serve as a pilot to be scaled up under further Bank-IFC collaboration.  Complementing a lesson in the CLR, the appropriate use of analytical work can lead to a more fruitful dialogue on reforms with the client. In the case of Ethiopia, this was evidenced in the areas of competitiveness, labor markets, and urbanization.  Risk financing mechanisms in Bank interventions can enable a client to scale up safety nets to address transitory shocks in a low income country. In the case of Ethiopia, the Productive Safety Net Program reflected such flexibility in the face of the severe drought that affected the country. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. Ethiopia is a low income country—one of the eleven poorest in the world—with a GNI per capita of US$590 in current US$ in 2015. Its economy grew by an average of 9.6 percent annually in real terms during the review period, with a slowdown to 6-7 percent in 2015-16 owing to a severe drought. Ethiopia’s exports remain concentrated on basic commodities such as coffee, oil seeds, and edible vegetables, which leave the country vulnerable to global commodity price developments. The poverty headcount indicates that 33 percent of the population lived below the international poverty line of US$1.90 PPP per day in 2011. Ethiopia is among the most equal countries in the world. Inequality—with a Gini index of 0.33 in 2011—is low by international and Sub-Saharan Africa standards, and at par with some OECD countries. The country made good progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) particularly in gender parity in primary education, child mortality, HIV/AIDS, and malaria. The country’s HDI ranking remained broadly at the same level between 2012 (173 out of 187) and 2015 (174 out of 187). 2. For the past twenty- five years, Ethiopia adopted a development model underpinned by a strong state role on public investment—particularly on infrastructure—and agricultural development, with the private sector taking a secondary role. This “big push” in public investment and emphasis on agricultural development accounted for the high rates of growth of around 10 percent annually, and contributed to a significant reduction in poverty. According to the March 2016 Systematic Country Diagnostic, the direct effect of transfers to rural households coupled with public works investments in water management and land productivity have contributed to higher agricultural yields, agricultural income growth, and a relatively equal income distribution in the country. For Ethiopia to realize its ambition to become a lower middle income country by 2025, the private sector will need to play a more meaningful role, in order for the country to reduce its infrastructure gap and develop its manufacturing sector. Moreover, increasing the resilience and opportunities of the lowest income quintiles remain among the country’s major challenges. 3. The government set out its objectives in the Growth and Transformation Plans (GTP I and II) whose main goal is for Ethiopia to become a lower middle-income country by 2025 through average annual real growth rates of 10-11 percent. While the public sector will continue playing an important role, the GTP, especially GTP II, places more emphasis on private sector development and FDI, particularly in building an export-oriented manufacturing sector. Growth targets are underpinned by the envisaged rapid structural transformation and investments in energy generation, transportation, and infrastructure to boost productivity and competitiveness. In support of the government’s objectives, the WBG’s program pursued two strategic objectives of fostering competitiveness and employment, enhancing resilience and reducing vulnerabilities, and a foundational objective of fostering good governance and state building. 4. Relevance of Design. The Bank program was aligned with the government priorities under the GTP, and the selection of focus areas was in line with broad areas identified subsequently as important by Ethiopia’s Systematic Country Diagnostic. The combination of lending and analytical work was expected to underpin the achievement of program objectives by supporting reforms across For Official Use Only CLR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group the focus areas and the foundational objective, and helping the dialogue with the government. The program linked well its objectives to Bank interventions, which also meant that in a number of instances indicators were based on specific project results. The design of the program exploited synergies between the Bank and IFC, for example on the Competitiveness and Job Creation Project (FY14) which provides firms with industrial land and buildings, with a one-stop-shop that reduces transaction costs for firms. IFC contributed also with several advisory services projects—for example to upgrade online trade registration and licensing—and investments to boost exports. According to the progress report there were efforts to move towards selective and transformational interventions, which meant larger interventions in size, and interventions that cut across a number of the program objectives. Some indicators were changed in the PLR to better reflect Bank support. The second half of the program emphasized the need for structural transformation to increase competitiveness and productivity in line with GTP II. Moreover, on basic services, the emphasis started to shift from access—on which Ethiopia made significant progress—to quality, and the Bank strengthened its engagement on urbanization in line with the government’s increasing emphasis on this agenda. Selectivity 5. The overall program was selective in terms of the focus areas. It built on adequate country diagnostics and ASA support, and was based on consultations with the authorities. The non-lending program was focused on supporting the dialogue with the authorities—for example on macroeconomic issues—and informed some of the lending interventions. IFC investments and advisory activities were focused on enhancing private sector competitiveness, its capacity to create jobs through new investments, especially in SMEs, and devising an investment incentive framework. On the whole, the work across the WBG was well articulated to support the main program elements. The program aimed at having a long-term impact by fostering changes in competitiveness and productivity—in line with GTP II—that would help Ethiopia become a lower middle income country over time, and become sustainable without aid. While the volume of lending increased in Ethiopia during the program, the number of projects in the portfolio was reduced by scaling up generally well performing operations through Additional Financing, suggesting greater selectivity and a more compressed dialogue platform with the authorities. Alignment 6. The Bank has been a supporter of the government in its pursuit of pro-poor, equity-enhancing policies. The government’s overall policies have been geared towards poverty reduction and greater equality, including regional equity, and Bank program interventions aimed at enhancing socio- economic conditions of key target groups. Taking into account ongoing projects and those approved during the CPS, 44 percent of Bank lending went to projects in social protection. The Productive Safety Net Program series, in particular, enhanced food security, livelihoods, skill development, and land management. It also committed the government to allocate more resources over time to the most vulnerable. The remaining 56 percent of the program was devoted—in order by size of commitments—to transport infrastructure, energy and mining, agriculture and rural development, and urban development—all areas that directly or indirectly supported the twin goals. 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: 7. The Bank program had two focus areas: (a) fostering competitiveness and employment, and (ii) enhancing resilience and reducing vulnerabilities. It also contained a foundational objective of fostering good governance and state building. For consistency, IEG’s review considers the outcomes of the foundational objective as objectives of a third pillar, in line with the assessment of the other two pillars. Focus Area I: Fostering Competitiveness and Employment For Official Use Only CLR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group 8. This focus area had four objectives: (i) promote a stable macroeconomic environment; (ii) foster increased competitiveness and productivity; (iii) increase and improve infrastructure delivery; and (iv) enhance regional integration. Objective 1: Stable macroeconomic environment 9. This objective had two outcomes: (i) introduce macroeconomic policies conducive to sustain external and internal balance (sound monetary and fiscal policies to control inflation), and (ii) increase domestic resource mobilization (local governments to increase own resources). The Bank supported this objective through knowledge services, particularly on debt management. 10. On the first outcome, CPI inflation was 7.5 percent as of June 2016, below the ceiling of 10 percent under the program. The 2016 IMF Article IV consultation report notes that a restrictive monetary policy stance contributed to this result. The report also notes that the fiscal stance was appropriately supportive to minimize the economic and social impact of the drought, but underscores that curbing an external deficit of about 11 percent of GDP will require a tighter fiscal policy in the period ahead. At the same time, the report indicates that the Ethiopian birr is overvalued by 20 to 40 percent, which poses a significant constraint to export competitiveness, especially in manufacturing. Economic policies have been inconsistent in some areas with Fund advice. Interest rates are not allowed to be determined flexibly, and the foreign exchange market functioning needs to be improved. Such improvement would include a market-based price setting mechanism for the exchange rate and an increase in exchange rate flexibility. Moreover, in the banking area, the government would need to phase out the requirement that private banks invest in National Bank of Ethiopia bonds a 27 percent of their credit to finance the Development Bank. 11. Typically, macroeconomic stabilization is an area where the IMF takes the lead. In this particular case, the Bank has been active, complementing the IMF on a number of issues related to macroeconomic stability, debt sustainability analysis, and capacity building for statistics and debt management. This outcome was achieved. 12. The second outcome as measured by an increase of their own municipal revenue of at least 10 percent over the previous year was also achieved. As of June 2016, 35 urban local governments have increased their own municipal revenues by at least 10 percent over the previous year (versus the target of 18 urban local governments). Although this outcome may be significant for the municipalities involved, it is of second order for national resource mobilization. 13. The two outcome measures under this objective focused on macroeconomic stability and public finance. On balance, this objective is rated as Achieved. Objective 2: Increased competitiveness and productivity 14. The outcomes for this objective were to (i) increase agriculture productivity and marketing in selected areas; (ii) increase competitiveness in manufacturing and services; and (iii) increase Medium and Small Enterprises’ (MSE) access to financial services. The Bank supported this objective through the Agriculture Growth Program (FY11), the Competitiveness and Job Creation project (FY14), and the Women Entrepreneurship Development project (FY12). 15. Achievement of the increased agriculture productivity outcome was measured by two indicators (i) average yields of selected crops in targeted woredas, and (ii) value of marketed agricultural products in targeted woredas. The CLR reports that the end-project sample survey has not been completed because the closing of Agriculture Project has been extended. It also notes that according to proxy data prepared by IFPRI for the project, yields per hectare nearly doubled from 16.4 qt/ha in 2011/12 to 28.4 qt/ha in 2014/15, but this information could not be verified. On the second indicator, there was a documented increase of 12.7 percent in the real value of marketed agricultural products per household as of March 2014 compared with the 22 percent expected for the whole program period.1 The CLR reports a higher number of over 50 percent for the end of the project—based on an 1 The indicator measure is in Ethiopian Birr (ETB)—Ethiopia’s currency: a 22 percent increase in nominal terms. The project—Agriculture Growth Program (FY11)—documented a real increase of 12.7 percent of For Official Use Only CLR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group evaluation prepared by USAID—but IEG’s review of USAID’s midterm report suggests a more nuanced assessment, where targets were achieved for some products but not others. 2 The outcome was mostly achieved. 16. The second outcome of increased competitiveness in manufacturing and services , was to be measured by two indicators (i) the number of new jobs created in targeted manufacturing and services firms and (ii) export share of total sales value of goods and services generated by firms located in the special Industrial Zone. The number of jobs created under different Bank and IFC interventions is estimated to be around 13,000—was close to the target under the program (15,000). The program expected that US$28 million in exports would be generated by firms located in the special Industrial Zone. However, the CLR reports that the project supporting this outcome only became effective in August 2014, and hence there was not enough time during the program period to generate the needed increase in exports by firms supported in the Industrial Zone. The outcome was partially achieved. 17. On the increased MSE access to finance outcome, the Women Entrepreneurship Development project (WEDP) disbursed US$43 million to Micro-Finance Institutions as of November 2015, which on-lent this same amount to SMEs, compared with the target of US$28 million under the program. According to initial surveys, 76 percent of WEDP clients had never taken a loan before. For repeat borrowers, loan size increased on average by 8-9 times, enabling women-owned enterprises to scale up operations that were stuck in a small-size trap. This outcome was achieved. 18. On balance, this objective is rated as Mostly Achieved. Objective 3: Increase and Improve Infrastructure Delivery 19. The three outcomes for this objective were to (i) increase access to electricity; (ii) improve roads and transport infrastructure; and (iii) increase access to improved water and sanitation services in urban and rural areas. The Bank supported this objective through the Electricity Access Rural Expansion project (FY06), the Second Electricity Access Rural Expansion project (FY08), the Electricity Network Reinforcement and Expansion project (FY12), the Road Sector Development Support Program III (FY07) and IV (FY09), the Productive Safety Net APL III project (FY10), the Productive Safety Net APL III (FY10) and IV (FY15), the Urban Water Supply and Sanitation project (FY04, FY07), the Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene project (FY14), and the Tana and Beles Integrated Water Resources Development project (FY08). 20. On increasing access to electricity, the outcome was measured by off-grid and on-grid access. With respect to off-grid connection, according to the CLR, about 1 million households (versus the target of 250,000 people) now have access to off grid electricity as of November 2016, owing in large part to the Electricity Network Reinforcement and Expansion project (FY12). The CLR also notes mixed progress toward expanding grid-connected electricity service. The two supporting Bank interventions—Electricity Access Rural Expansion projects I (FY06) and II (FY08)—suffered delays owing to the government’s moratorium on new connections, and its sole-sourcing of meter procurement to a local public enterprise. Although the two projects connected more towns and villages to electricity services than originally planned, the Bank projects were unable to bring the on-grid electricity to households by the time they were closed. According to available information from the three energy operations supported by the Bank, less than one million people have on-grid electricity access in selected areas (compared to the target of 1.7 million people). On balance, the electricity access outcome is rated mostly achieved. marketed agricultural products as of March 2014, and accumulated inflation between 2012 and March 2014 was more than 30 percent, implying that in nominal terms the marketed agricultural goods per household increased by significantly more than the 22 percent nominal increase targeted by the indicator. 2 The Mid-Term evaluation of the Agriculture Growth Program by USAID (February 2015, page 6) notes an increase in coffee sales in US$ of 32 million (127 percent of planned target). Sale of maize and sesame were 87 and 80 percent of target while sales of wheat and chickpeas were about 20 percent of target —indicating mixed progress. For Official Use Only CLR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group 21. The outcome on improved roads and transport infrastructure was measured by the additional km of roads—including rural—constructed or rehabilitated. Slightly more than 800 km of roads were constructed or rehabilitated to fair and good condition by WBG operations, compared with a target of 1,008 km under the program. In addition, 41,031 km of rural roads were rehabilitated and 26.864 km constructed, for a total of 67,895 km, close to the 71,500 km target under the program. Thus, the second outcome, was mostly achieved. 22. As regards the third outcome—on increased access to water and sanitation services —over 16 million people in WBG project areas obtained access to improved water resources as of June 2015 (compared with a 4.2 million target) and 2.22 million people obtained access to improved sanitation (compared to a target of 4.5 million). This outcome was mostly achieved. 23. On balance this objective is rated as Mostly Achieved. Objective 4: Enhance Regional Integration 24. The three outcomes for this objective were to (i) improve the Eastern Africa Power Pool Mechanism, and (ii) enhance involvement in the regional agriculture technology generation and dissemination. The Bank supported this objective through the Eastern Electricity Highway project (FY13) and the Eastern Africa Agricultural Productivity project (FY09). 25. The target on the first outcome—on power pool mechanism—was to export 1,401 GWh (569 to Djibouti plus 832 to Sudan). The CLR reports that to date 781.9 GWh have been exported, but the Bank did not contribute to this outcome. There were extended procurement delays in the East Africa Power Pool project (FY14) and contracts for transmission lines and converter stations were not signed until end-October 2015. Therefore, the expected increase in energy export capacity is now envisaged to be achieved well beyond the CPS period (end-2018). The outcome was not achieved. 26. As regards the second outcome—on agriculture technology generation and dissemination— 150 existing and new technologies—compared with a target of 82—were disseminated in more than one Eastern Africa Agricultural Productivity Program country. The outcome was achieved. 27. On balance this objective is rated as Partially Achieved. 28. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support under Focus Area 1 as Moderately Satisfactory. There was tangible progress on promoting a stable macroeconomic environment, on increasing and improving infrastructure delivery, and on fostering increased competitiveness and productivity. Progress was limited on enhancing regional energy integration in East Africa. Focus Area II: Enhance Resilience and Reduce Vulnerabilities 29. This focus area had two objectives: (i) improve the delivery of social services; and (ii) enhance comprehensive social protection and risk management. Objective 5: Improve the Delivery of Social Services 30. The two outcomes for this objective were to increase access to: (i) quality health services, and (ii) quality education. The Bank supported this objective through the Health MDG Support Operation (FY13), the General Education Quality Improvement Program I (FY09), and the Promotion of Basic Services III (FY13). 31. On quality health services—the first outcome—in line with program targets, there was a contraceptive prevalence rate of 40.4 percent as of April 2014. In addition, as of the same date, 16 percent of deliveries were attended by skilled birth providers, short of the 18 percent program target. No progress was reported on the increase in share of 12-23 months immunized with Pentavalent 3 vaccination. According to the CLR, updated information is expected to be released soon. This outcome was partially achieved. 32. On education—the second outcome—the program targeted a significant increase in the percentage of students attaining basic competencies. Data from the June 2016 of Ethiopia’s National Learning Assessment reports notes the achievements for 2015: for grade 4: 47 percent in English For Official Use Only CLR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group (target of 58 percent) and 63 percent in Mathematics (target of 56 percent); and for grade 8: 74 percent in English (target of 50 percent) and 62 percent in Mathematics (target of 50 percent). This outcome was mostly achieved. 33. On balance this objective is rated as Mostly Achieved. Objective 6: Enhance comprehensive social protection and risk management 34. The three outcomes for this objective were to (i) enhance resilience to food insecurity of vulnerable households, (ii) increase the adoption of Disaster Risk Management Systems; and (iii) foster sustainable natural resource management and resilience to climate change. The Bank supported this objective through the Productive Safety Net APL III (FY10) and IV (FY15) projects, the Sustainable Land Management project I (FY08) and II (FY14), the Tana and Beles Integrated Water Resources Development project (FY08), the Agriculture Growth Program (FY11), and the Productive Safety Net APL II project (FY10). 35. On the first outcome—resilience to food insecurity—the average net number of months of household food insecurity has been reduced to below 3.2, meeting the program target. The Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)—which targets chronically food-insecure rural households—is one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest, which the Bank supported with a series of adaptable program operations during 2005-16 as part of a consortium of donors. The program contributed to improved food security in all regions, helped rehabilitate the environment and natural resources, and improved access to education and health care. A WBG assessment 3 shows how safety nets help households bounce back after shocks as compared to non-protected households, including through the use of risk financing mechanisms that allow a scale up of the PSNP in times of transitory crisis. This outcome was achieved. 36. On Disaster Risk Management Systems—the second outcome—against a target of 100, no additional woredas were connected to early warning systems during the CPS period. At the same time—in line with program targets—early warning information on disaster risk was provided to 122 additional woredas as of December 2013, and 267 woredas had contingency plans in place as of June 2015. This outcome was mostly achieved. 37. As regards the third outcome—natural resource management and resilience—about 1.9 million has were under sustainable land management practices as a result of WBG operations, exceeding the target of 1 million under the program. This outcome was achieved. 38. On balance, this objective is rated as Achieved. 39. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support under Focus Area 1 as Moderately Satisfactory. There was significant progress on both improving the delivery of social services and enhancing comprehensive social protection and risk management. Focus Area III: Foster Good Governance and State Building 40. This focus area had three objectives: (i) improve public service performance management and responsiveness; and (ii) enhance space for citizen participation in development; and (iii) enhance public financial management, procurement, and accountability. The CPS and PLR refer to this focus area as a foundation. For consistency, IEG’s review considers its outcomes as objectives under this pillar, in line with the assessment of the other two pillars. Objective 7: Improve public service performance management and responsiveness 41. The two outcomes for this objective were to (i) introduce the Balanced Score Card (BSC) in all ministries and 4 big regions, and (ii) increase significantly the percent of citizens confident that the government will address their service quality issues in key areas. The main Bank intervention that 3 Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP): Integrating Disaster and Climate Risk Management , World Bank Group and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, Washington DC, June 2013. For Official Use Only CLR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group supported this objective was the Public Sector Capacity Program Support project (PSCPS), a multi- donor trust fund established in 2007 and extended until June 2014. 42. On the first outcome—Balanced Score Cards—BSC have been introduced and implemented in all federal ministries and all four big regions with Bank support under the PSCPS. This outcome was achieved. 43. On the second outcome—service quality in key areas—results from the Woreda and City Administrations Benchmarking Survey (WCBS) 2010-13 show a decline in confidence from 58 percent to 43 percent among citizens that their concerns about health service quality will be addressed, while confidence in water service responsiveness increased from 65 percent to 68 percent. The WCBS has been discontinued. This outcome could not be verified. 44. On balance this objective is rated as Partially Achieved. Objective 8: Enhance space for citizen participation in development 45. The outcome for this objective was the number of woredas that facilitate the use of Social Accountability tools, and have developed joint action plans for service quality improvement. The main Bank interventions that supported this objective was the Promoting Basic Services Program Phase III project (FY13) and the Social Accountability Program Phase II. 46. During the review period, 223 woredas have facilitated the use of social accountability tools— compared with a program target of 320 (from a baseline of 50)—and 223 woredas developed joint action plans for service quality improvement as of February 2017 with Bank support (compared to the target of 300). Still, Ethiopia remains among the lowest-ranked countries in the ranking prepared by the Worldwide Governance Indicator for Voice and Accountability (11th percentile in 2010 and 14th percentile in 2014). The outcome was partially achieved. 47. This objective is rated as Partially Achieved. Objective 9: Enhance public financial management, procurement, and accountability 48. The outcomes for this objective was to (i) enhance public financial management performance at the federal and regional levels, (ii) establish Citizen’s Charters across the public service, and (iii) increase the number of audits for regional institutions. The main Bank intervention that supported this objective was the Public Sector Capacity Program Support project (FY04). 49. On the first outcome—public financial management—during 2010-14 PEFA A scores nearly doubled in number from 12 to 20, B scores increased from 30 to 42, while C and NA scores declined. This outcome was achieved. 50. On Citizen’s Charters (CC)—the second targeted outcome—the CLR reports that to date 14 federal ministries have developed CC’s and started to publicize them, in line with the target under the program. The Amhara region has developed charters for all regional bureaus and three other big regions have developed charters for their Civil Service Bureaus based on the charter developed by the Federal Ministry of Civil Service, also in line with the target of 4 big regions instituting citizen’s charters. This outcome was achieved, although it is hard to judge how citizen’s charters contribute to the objective of public financial management, procurement, and accountability. 51. Regarding the audits of regional institutions—the third outcome—the CLR reports that the number of regional institutions with annual financial audits increased to 80 percent (target 50 percent), which could not be verified based on WBG and PEFA documents. This outcome was not achieved. 52. On balance, this objective is rated as Mostly Achieved. 53. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support under Focus Area III as Moderately Unsatisfactory. There was significant progress on enhancing public financial management, procurement, and accountability. Progress fell short, however, on improving public service performance management and performance, and enhancing citizen participation. For Official Use Only CLR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group Overall Assessment and Rating 54. IEG rates the overall development outcome as Moderately Satisfactory. The program made uneven progress across focus areas and objectives. Under Focus Area I there was tangible progress on promoting a stable macroeconomic environment, and increasing and improving infrastructure deliver, and fostering increased competitiveness and productivity. Progress fell short of program targets increasing regional energy integration in East Africa. In Focus Area II significant progress was made on both improving the delivery of social services and enhancing comprehensive social protection and risk management. In Focus Area III there was significant progress on enhancing public financial management, procurement, and accountability. Progress fell short, however, on improving public service performance management and responsiveness, and enhancing citizen participation. Cross-cutting issues were not measured explicitly in the results framework. Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating Focus Area I: Fostering Competitiveness and Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Employment Objective 1: Stable macroeconomic Achieved Achieved environment Objective 2: Increased competitiveness and productivity Achieved Mostly Achieved Objective 3: Increased and Improved Infrastructure Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved Delivery Objective 4: Enhance Regional Integration Partially Achieved Partially Achieved Focus Area II: Enhanced Resilience and Reduce Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Vulnerabilities Objective 5: Improved Delivery of Social Services Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved Objective 6: Comprehensive social protection and risk Achieved Achieved management Focus Area III (Foundation): Foster Good Moderately Moderately Satisfactory Governance and State Building Unsatisfactory Objective 7: Improved public service performance Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved management and responsiveness Objective 8: Enhanced space for citizen participation in Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved the development process Objective 9: Enhance public financial management, Achieved Mostly Achieved procurement, and accountability 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 55. At the start of the CPS period, IDA had 25 ongoing operations totaling nearly $3.2 billion. The portfolio was all in investment project financing (IPF) operations in energy, public sector capacity building, water and sanitation, road maintenance and buildings, irrigation, electricity access, urban development, protection of basic services, agriculture, and productive safety nets. There were 37 trust funded activities for over $1 billion which provided complementary financing in all the areas supported by IDA operations. During the CPS period (FY12-FY16), IDA approved US$6.7 billion in new commitments, a majority in project financing, including US$2.5 billion of unplanned operations. This exceeded the proposed financing under the CPS/CPSPR of US$4.2 billion, although such plans covered only the proposed amounts through FY15. Trust funded activities accounted for about $1.2 billion provided complementary financing, primarily in energy, and also for public finance and internal audit. 56. In terms of number of projects, Ethiopia performed better (80 percent) than both the Bank as a whole (69 percent) and the Africa region (71). Of the fifteen projects validated by IEG during the For Official Use Only CLR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group review period, 12 were rated MS or better and three MU or worse. The latter—an MU for the Energy Access SIL (FY03) and a U for a grant for Rural Electricity Expansion (Phase 2)—suffered from significant problems at every stage, from quality at entry, to supervision and overall implementation, including by the borrower. With respect to active operations, management assessments report that— except for the Renewable Energy project (FY14)—all projects were making satisfactory progress towards achieving their development objectives. 57. The Ethiopia portfolio showed lower risk—both in terms of number of projects and committed amounts—than the Africa region and Bank wide portfolios. During FY12-16, the Ethiopia portfolio had 18.5 percent of the projects at risk compared to 22 percent for the Africa Region and 21 percent Bank- wide. Ethiopia’s portfolio at exit performed better than its comparators (Africa and Bank-wide) as measured by IEG’s outcome ratings (MS or better). During the review period IDA committed resources were disbursed at a faster rate (33 percent disbursement ratio) than the Africa region (22 percent) and the Bank (21 percent), reflecting the good overall portfolio performance. 58. There were six IFC investment projects—with US$86.7 million of net commitment—at the inception of the review period that were active during the review period. About two thirds of IFC investments went to a cement manufacturing company. During FY12-16, IFC committed another US$157.3 million, through six new investments. At the end of the review period, about a third of the investments went to supporting refined gasoline imports. Of the twelve investments that were active during the review period, seven have closed. IEG has still not reviewed them. Yet, because equity investments were small compared to the average IFC investments, only about eight percent of the portfolio is considered sub-standard or lower. 59. MIGA gave coverage for US$15.1 million that supported three investments, 71 percent of which went into supporting an agribusiness investment where IFC has invested as well. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 60. During the review period, the Bank supported a program of analytic work and advisory activities and services including 34 Economic and Sector Works (ESWs) and 37 Technical Assistance (TA) tasks. The production of relevant knowledge work was effective by helping the dialogue with the government in sensitive reform areas such as macroeconomic stability, competitiveness, labor markets, and urbanization. Bank analytical work produced evidence of pros and cons in areas where the government was uncertain about continuing with reform. In other areas, such as access to finance, analytical work led to IDA operations. Technical assistance included work on poverty and migration, health, agriculture, public sector capacity—including procurement and debt management, service delivery impact, and external audit. All in all, the program of ASA supported well the Bank’s lending program. 61. IFC had three advisory service (AS) projects, amounting to over US$2.4 million that were approved before the review period and were implemented during the review period. During the review period, IFC approved nine new AS projects amounting to about US$13.9 million of total funds. Of the twelve projects, four have closed, and IEG has reviewed two of these closed projects, rating the Development Effectiveness of one of them Mostly Successful but the other Mostly Unsuccessful. Of the two that have not been reviewed by the IEG, IFC’s Project Completion Reports rated one of them as Successful and the other Mostly Unsuccessful. Results Framework 62. The results framework reflected a logical chain beginning with the country’s development goals, issues and obstacles, outcomes and intermediate indicators to which WBG expects to contribute, and WBG instruments supporting the program objectives. In this context, the CPS objectives addressed critical constraints facing Ethiopia, and the causal chain between WBG interventions and objectives was fairly clear. At the same time, some indicators were unrealistic. For example, the 2011 Joint Staff Advisory Note on the GTP raised significant concerns about projected growth rates of over 11 percent. Yet, the results framework picked targets directly from the GTP. Outcome indicators did not reflect well the objectives in some instances. For example, under certain objectives of Focus Area III on governance and state building, and on resource mobilization under For Official Use Only CLR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group objective #1. Some indicators—such as those on agriculture productivity under objective #2—were difficult to monitor. Moreover, although gender was a cross-cutting issue, there were no gender- indicators in the results framework. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 63. The WBG cooperated effectively with the IMF on issues related to macroeconomic stability. In addition, the results framework mentions the main development partners under each objective. For example, the EU, UNDP, and World Food Program for the social protection objective. DFID, Finland, Italian Development Cooperation, USAID, JICA, UNICEF, and Russia on issues related to education. USAID, Japan, CGIAR on agriculture. The CLR mentions—without much elaboration—that coordination with development partners was strong. It notes that the Bank helped leverage financing from multilateral organizations, traditional partners such as the EU, and non-traditional partners for projects, such as Promotion of Basic Services Program (PBS), Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), General Education Quality Improvement Program (GQEIP), and Urban Local Government Development Program (ULGDP). Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues (start with safeguards discussion followed by fiduciary issues) 64. According to the Vice Presidency for Integrity (INT), there were nine investigations by INT during the review period, of which five were substantiated cases of corruption or collusion in the Energy Access project, the Private Sector Capacity Building project, the Irrigation and Drainage project, and the Electricity Access (Rural) Expansion project Phase II. 65. Based on a complaint, the Inspection Panel (IP) was involved in a claim of severe harms and human rights abuses made regarding the Protection of Basic Services project. The IP report concluded that the involuntary taking of land and use of force were not a consequence of the project, but rather the associated government-financed Commune Development Program (CDP) in the Gambella region. The IP mentioned, however, that the Bank had failed to assess fully and mitigate the risks arising from the CDP. The IP also noted that a follow-up Management Action Plan (MAP) was issued and included activities to strengthen citizen engagement, safeguards, and financial management. According to the panel, as of February 2017, more than half of the MAP had been completed. 66. Based on fifteen IEG completion reviews, some additional safeguard issues were noted in relation to community involvement, ineffective application of policy instruments, weak impact assessment, and delayed preparation. Serious consequences—such as deaths and accidents by poor safety procedures and requirements by contractors—took place in the transport sector. Ownership and Flexibility 67. The WBG has had an ongoing productive relationship with Ethiopia, with some uncertainties at times, like the political transition just before the CPS was discussed by the Board in 2012. Dialogue with the government was rebuilt and strengthened afterwards, and the government reaffirmed continued relevance of the CPS pillars to the GTP I and II. There was broad government commitment to the program as the authorities expressed strong interest in the areas of Bank intervention because these areas were closely aligned with the GTP I and II. The ASA agenda was also driven by ongoing dialogue with the government on current or future interventions, and in a number of cases fed directly into the Bank interventions. There were not many changes to the program or results framework at progress report stage. WBG Internal Cooperation 68. The CLR reports effective cooperation between the Bank and IFC. The cooperation was manifested in Focus Area I (fostering competitiveness and employment), primarily in supporting the government’s industrialization agenda and access to finance for Small and Medium Enterprises. According to the CLR, IFC and the Bank have also worked effectively in supporting the business environment and in the Competitiveness and Jobs Creation project. IFC also administered a trust fund for the Initiative to Support the Ethiopian Private Sector Development, but the CLR noted that For Official Use Only CLR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group development partners voiced concerns regarding coordination and costs related to this fund. MIGA provided guarantees for agribusiness and manufacturing, complementing well the work of the Bank and IFC in these areas. The World Bank and IFC teams collaborated closely on the IFC Climate Innovation Center AS project. Risk Identification and Mitigation 69. The CPS identified five main risks (external economic shocks, trade-off between growth and debt sustainability, corruption and governance, natural disasters, natural disasters). Of those five, fiduciary and safeguard risks—related to governance and corruption—remained significant features of the WBG program in Ethiopia. The government has pursued improvements to counter corruption, and the Bank has also taken a number of measures on internal controls, financial reporting, unaccounted advances, bank reconciliations, cash balances and follow up on auditing. However—as evidenced in the section on safeguards and fiduciary issues—these are areas where the Bank will need to redouble efforts. On safeguards, the Bank has suffered in particular where WBG operations are co-located with national government programs. In some such cases—as illustrated by the IP case—the Bank has not identified in a timely fashion and mitigated safeguard risks. 70. More broadly, the Bank program faced risks emanating from the macroeconomic and external fronts, natural disasters, political transitions, and regional security. The Bank is involved in macroeconomic issues which mitigates risks to some extent. It also supports the government’s Climate Resilience and Green Economy program, which should mitigate disaster risks. Political risks are more difficult to mitigate, but the Bank works closely with development partners to respond in a coordinated way if these risk materialize. On regional security risks, the WBG has no independent way of mitigating possible unrest spilling over to Ethiopia from regional instability. Moreover, the Bank joined forces with other development partners to respond to food insecurity related to an unanticipated drought—see for details objective #6 and paragraph 36 on the resilience to food insecurity indicator. Overall Assessment and Rating 71. IEG rates WBG performance as Good. The WBG strategy addressed key challenges facing the country, emphasizing the need for structural transformation to increase competitiveness and productivity in line with GTP I and II. Interventions supported reforms across the three focus areas, and analytical work helped the dialogue with the government, and in some areas, such as access to finance and urbanization, led to IDA operations. The overall program was selective, and built on adequate country diagnostics and ASA support, and was based on consultations with the authorities. IFC investments and advisory activities were focused on enhancing private sector competitiveness, its capacity to create jobs through new investments, especially in SMEs, and devising an investment incentive framework. On the whole, the work across the WBG was well articulated to support the main elements of the program. 72. The program aimed at having a long-term impact by fostering changes in competitiveness and productivity—in line with GTP II—that would help Ethiopia become a lower middle income country over time, and become sustainable without aid. The results framework was adequate—with some pitfalls on indicator appropriateness, measurement, and realism—and the CPS objectives addressed critical constraints facing Ethiopia. The causal chain between WBG interventions and objectives was fairly clear. A positive aspect of Ethiopia’s results framework was that the higher level goals of the Government’s GTP were made explicit at the beginning of each pillar, and therefore it was fairly clear how the WBG program would contribute to the government goals. In some instances, however, indicators did not reflect the objectives well or were difficult to measure. 73. Implementation also was generally good, and there was good internal cooperation. The cooperation was manifested particularly in Focus Area I (fostering competitiveness and employment), primarily in supporting the government’s industrialization agenda and access to finance for Small and Medium Enterprises. According to the CLR, IFC and the Bank have also worked effectively in supporting the business environment and in the Competitiveness and Jobs Creation project. IFC also administered a trust fund for the Initiative to Support the Ethiopian Private Sector Development, but according to the CLR development partners voiced concerns regarding coordination and costs related For Official Use Only CLR Review 14 Independent Evaluation Group to this fund. MIGA provided guarantees for agribusiness and manufacturing, complementing well the work of the Bank and IFC in these areas. Ethiopia’s portfolio at exit performed better than its comparators (Africa and Bank-wide) as measured by IEG’s outcome ratings (MS or better). The main risks (outside fiduciary and safeguards) were mitigated properly where possible. The response to the unanticipated drought in Ethiopia was remarkable. As evidenced in the section on safeguards and fiduciary issues, these are areas where the Bank will need to redouble efforts in order to minimize such risks. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 74. The CLR provided a candid assessment of program performance based on the results framework as modified in the progress report. The evidence for assessing objectives was generally sufficient. IEG would have liked to see a thorough analysis of risks to the program, particularly in light of the risks that materialized in the economic and political spheres. Discussion of within WBG synergies was adequate, but the CLR could have provided a more explicit assessment of cooperation with other development partners to extract lessons for the future in Ethiopia and other countries. The CLR would have benefited from an explicit comparison of proposed and actual financing. A more detailed discussion of fiduciary and safeguard issues, and of gender as a cross-cutting issue, also would have been helpful. 8. Findings and Lessons 75. IEG agrees with the CLR lessons about the need for forward-looking innovative work to engage with the government in the long term, and risk management and ongoing evaluation to bring the best in operations. It also concurs with the view that the Bank is at its best when it does not operate in isolation. 76. IEG adds the following lessons:  Bank-IFC cooperation can be effective even in a context of significant challenges to private sector development. In the case of Ethiopia, the number of jobs created by IFC in targeted manufacturing and services firms could serve as a pilot to be scaled up under further Bank-IFC collaboration.  Complementing a lesson in the CLR, the appropriate use of analytical work can lead to a more fruitful dialogue on reforms with the client. In the case of Ethiopia, this was evidenced for example in the areas of competitiveness, labor markets, and urbanization.  Risk financing mechanisms in Bank interventions can enable a client to scale up safety nets to address transitory shocks in a low income country. In the case of Ethiopia, part of the success of the Productive Safety Net Program reflected such flexibility in the face of the severe drought that affected the country. Annexes CLR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Ethiopia Annex Table 2: Ethiopia Planned and Actual Lending, FY13-FY16 Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Ethiopia, FY13-FY16 Annex Table 4: Ethiopia Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY13-16 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Ethiopia, FY13-16 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Ethiopia and Comparators, FY13-16 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Ethiopia and Comparators, FY13-16 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Ethiopia, FY13-16 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Ethiopia, FY13-16 Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Ethiopia, 2012 – 2015 Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Ethiopia (US$,000) Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Ethiopia (US$) Annex Table 14: IFC net commitment activity in Ethiopia, FY12 - FY16 (US$, 000) Annex Table 15: List of Active MIGA Activities in Ethiopia, 2013-2016 (US$, millions) Annexes CLR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Ethiopia CPS FY13-FY16 – Focus Area 1: Fostering Competitiveness and Actual Results IEG Comments Employment Objective 1: Stable Macroeconomic Environment Outcome (i): Structural and The CLR reports that the CPI was 7.5% as of It is not clear which WBG macroeconomic policies are June 2016, after climbing to 10.4% in June operations contributed to conducive to sustain internal 2015 and 11.8% in October 2015. this indicator, outside and external balance The list of operations reported in the CLR to AAA. have contributed to this indicator mostly Indicator: Sound monetary and consists of knowledge services that supported fiscal policies to control inflation policy dialogues. Given the nature of the AAAs, implemented their direct contribution is difficult to assess. Baseline: CPI 21.6 (end of Likewise, the CLR reports that the WBG’s 2011/12) technical assistance (TA) played a role in the Target: CPI < 10% efforts made by Ethiopia to strengthen its debt management capacity such as the Public Sector Capacity Building Facility, P144864, FY14 (see Working Paper)and the Debt Management Reform Plan (P147787, FY14). Achieved. Outcome(ii): Increased domestic As of June 2016, 35 urban local governments resource mobilization have achieved an increase of their own municipal revenue of at least 10% over the Indicator: Number of urban local previous year, under the Urban Local governments that achieve an Government (ULGDP) II project (P133592, Major increase of own source FY12, see last ISR: S of December 2016). Outcome municipal revenue of at least 10% Achieved. Measures over the previous year under ULGDP II Baseline: Zero (FY14) Target: 18 out of 44 participating ULGs (FY16) Objective 2: Increased Competitiveness & Productivity Outcome (i): Increased The Agriculture Growth Program (P113032, agriculture productivity and FY11) supported this indicator. marketing in selected areas Mostly Achieved. Indicator (i): Average yields of (i) The last ISR: MS for project P113032 (June selected crops in targeted woredas 2016) does not report progress on the indicator (index, see AGP PDO). related to the percentage increase in agriculture Baseline: 9.9 qt/ha yield. The CLR indicates that, due to the Target: 11.5 qt/ha extension of the closing date (approved in September 2015, see Project Paper), the end of the project sample survey has not been completed and was scheduled for January 2017 (see last ISR: MS). The CLR reports that, according to proxy data prepared by IFRI, project yields per hectare nearly doubled from 16.4 in 2011/12 to 28.4 in 2014/15. This Annexes CLR Review 18 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY16 – Focus Area 1: Fostering Competitiveness and Actual Results IEG Comments Employment information is not verified on the basis of the WBG project documents. Not Verified. Indicator (ii): Value of marketed (ii) The last ISR: MS for project P113032 (June (ii) The indicator measure agricultural products in targeted 2016) reports a 12.70% increase, as of March is in ETB—the Ethiopian woredas. 2014, in the total real value of marketed Birr—Ethiopia’s currency: Baseline: 5,790 ETB per agricultural products per households, compared a 22% increase in nominal household with the 22 % expected for the whole program terms. The project— Target: 7,064 ETB per household period. Agriculture Growth The CLR reports a higher number of over 50% Program documented a for the end of the project—based on an real increase of 12.7% of evaluation prepared by USAID—but IEG’s marketed agricultural review of USAID’s midterm report suggest a products as of March more nuanced assessment, where targets were 2014, and accumulated achieved for some products but not others; inflation between 2012 USAID’s review reports an increase in coffee and March 2014 was more sales in US$ of 32 million (127% of planned than 30%, implying that in target) and that sale of maize and sesame were nominal terms the 87 and 80% of target—so targets likely to be marketed agricultural achieved by end of the project—and sales of goods per household wheat and chickpeas were about 20% of increased by significantly target—indicating that the targets were unlikely more than the 22% to be achieved by the end of the project. nominal increase targeted Mostly Achieved. by the indicator. Outcome (ii): Increased The Competitiveness and Job Creation Project competitiveness in - CJCP (P143302, FY14) and the Private manufacturing and services Sector Development Capacity Building Project – PSDCBP (P050272, FY05) supported this indicator. Partially Achieved. Indicator (i): Number of new jobs (i) The last ISR: MS (January 2017) for the created in targeted manufacturing CJCP project (P143302, FY14) does not report and services firms progress on the indicator related to the number Baseline: 0 of jobs created by activities linked to the Target: 15,000 supported activities. IEG: MS for the PSDCBP (P050272, FY05) reports that 5,719 jobs were created in the private sector in participating firms. The PLR also reported that 570 new jobs had been created through a Cement investment project. Based on IFC DOTS data, IEG estimates that IFC investees have created around 2,000 jobs, of which, over 700 were created through the IFC Investment project in Cement. Finally, the Tourism Development project (P098132, FY09) supported the creation of 5,553 jobs in tourism-related industries (see IEG: MS). The number of jobs created under different Bank and IFC interventions is estimated to be around 13,270—was close to Annexes CLR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY16 – Focus Area 1: Fostering Competitiveness and Actual Results IEG Comments Employment the target under the program (15,000). Mostly Achieved. Indicator (ii): Export share of total (ii) the CLR reports that the CJCP project sales value of goods and services became effective on August, 2014, and that generated by firms located in the there has been insufficient time to generate supported Industrial Zone improvements in the export component of sales Baseline (2014): 0 by supported firms - the last ISR: MS (January Target: (2016) US$28,000,000 2017) does not report progress on the related indicator. Not Achieved. Outcome (iii): Increased MSE The Women Entrepreneurship Development access to financial services Project - WEDP project (P122764, FY12) has disbursed USD 43 million to Micro-Finance Indicator: Volume of bank funding: Institutions (MFIs), which on-lent this amount to Lines of credit to MSEs. SMEs, as of November 01, 2015. The last ISR: Baseline: 0 S (June 2016) reports that the outstanding SME Target: US$ 28 million loan portfolio was USD 43 million as of May 2016. According to initial surveys, 76 percent of WEDP clients had never taken a loan before. For repeat borrowers, loan size increased on average by 8-9 times, enabling women-owned enterprises to scale up operations that were stuck in a small-size trap Achieved. Objective 3: Increased and Improved Delivery of Infrastructure Outcome (i): Increased Access Mostly Achieved. to Electricity Indicator: Number of people (i) On-grid: The sum of the validated provided with access to electricity information listed below indicates that 62,371 in selected areas from WBG households (or equivalent 311,855 people supported operations. assuming 5 people per household) plus 615,000 or a total of 926,855 people were Baseline: connected to on-grid access to electricity during (i) On-grid: 0 the CPS period: (ii) Off-grid: 0 - IEG: MU for the Electricity Access Rural Expansion Project (P097271, FY06, closed Target: December 2012) reports that 17,371 (i) On-grid: 1.7 million people households were connected to the grid (ii) Off-grid: 250,000 people - Management: MU for the Second Electricity Access Rural Expansion Project (P101556, FY08, closed December 2014) reports that 45,000 households were provided with electricity by grid connection - IEG: U for the Energy Access Project (P049395, FY03, closed June13), reports that the project supported 615,000 people connections to the grid Partially Achieved. Annexes CLR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY16 – Focus Area 1: Fostering Competitiveness and Actual Results IEG Comments Employment (ii) Off-grid: The target was achieved, on the basis of the verified projects: - Management: MU for the Second Electricity Access Rural Expansion Project (P101556, FY08) reports that 158,043 people were provided with electricity by off-grid connections (only renewable energy sources) - Management: MU for the Energy Access Project (P049395, FY03, closed FY13), reports that the project supported the provision of off-grid electricity to 10,500 persons. - the last ISR: S (December 2016) of the Electricity Network Reinforcement and Expansion Project - ENREP (P119893, FY12) reports that about 1 million (923,730) households got access to modern energy off- grid services, as of November 2016, through the development of solar-powered lanterns. Achieved. Outcome (ii): Improved roads, Mostly Achieved. transport Infrastructure Indicator (i): Additional km of roads (i) IEG:MS for the Road Sector Development constructed (new or upgraded with Support Program III (P091077, FY07) reports asphalt) or rehabilitated to fair and that 498km of federal trunk and link roads were good condition areas from WBG upgraded and the last ISR: S for the Road supported operations. Sector Development Support Program IV Baseline: (P106872, FY09) reports that 307km of federal Federal constructed or link roads were rehabilitated, as of January rehabilitated/ upgraded: 0 2017. This totals 805km. Mostly Achieved. Target: Federal Constructed or rehabilitated: 1,008 km Indicator (ii): Additional km of rural (ii) Management: S for the Productive Safety access roads Net APL III Project (P113220, FY10) reports constructed and/or rehabilitated to that, as of June 2015, 41,031 km or rural roads fair and good condition were rehabilitated and that 26,864km of rural Baseline: 800km roads were constructed (67,895km in total). Target: 71,500km Mostly Achieved. Outcome (iii): Increased access Mostly Achieved. to improved water and sanitation services in urban and rural areas Indicator (i): Additional people (i) as reported in the CLR, 16.1 million people in provided with improved water project areas obtained access to improved resources in selected urban and water resources, as of June 2015 – see rural areas Annexes CLR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY16 – Focus Area 1: Fostering Competitiveness and Actual Results IEG Comments Employment Baseline: 0 Management: S for the Productive Safety Net Target: 4.2 million APL III (P113220, FY10). Achieved. Indicator (ii): Additional rural/urban people with (ii) the last ISR: MS for the Urban Water Supply improved sanitation (latrines) and Sanitation Project (P101473, FY07) Baseline: 0 indicates that 100,000 people in urban areas Target: 4.5 million were provided with access to improved sanitation under the project. IEG: MS for the Ethiopia Water Supply and Sanitation Project (P076735, FY04) reports that 287,000 people benefited from improved latrines. The last ISR: MS (February 2017) of the Ethiopia Water, Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene project (P133591, FY14) also reports that about 1.83 million people got access to improved sanitation facilities as of January 2017. Finally, Management: MS for the Tana and Beles Integrated Water Resources Development Project (P096323, FY08) reports that improved sanitation facilities were constructed in the watershed areas including 8 latrines in the flood shelter areas but does not report on the number of people who got access to these latrines. On the basis of the information for these projects, about 2.22 million people obtained access to improved sanitation. Partially Achieved. Objective 4: Enhance Regional Integration Outcome (i): Improved Eastern The last ISR: MS (November 2016) of the Africa Power Pool Mechanism Eastern Electricity Highway Project (P126579, FY13) does not present an indicator related to Indicator: Total quantity of the total quantity of electricity exported to electricity exported in GWH Djibouti and Sudan while the CLR reports that Baseline: 33 GWh (to Sudan) to date 781.88 GWH of electricity have been Target: 1401 GWh (569 to Djibouti exported. Not Achieved. + 832 to Sudan) Outcome (ii): Enhanced IEG: MS for the Eastern Africa Agricultural involvement in regional Productivity project (P112688, FY09) reports agriculture technology that the 150 existing and new technologies generation and dissemination were disseminated in more than one EAAPP country, as of December 2015. Achieved. Indicator: Number of existing and new technologies from Ethiopia disseminated in more than one EAAPP country compared to plan Baseline: 37 Target: 82 Annexes CLR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY16 –Focus Area 2: Enhanced Resilience and Actual Results IEG Comments Reduced Vulnerabilities Objective 5: Improved Delivery of Social Services Outcome (i): Increased Access to Quality Health Services Indicator (i): Penta 3 vaccination (i) The last ISR: S (November 2016) for the coverage Health MDG support Operation (P123531, Baseline (2013): 65.7 % FY13) reports no progress on the indicator Target (2016/2017): 75.7% related to the increase in the share of 12-23 months immunized with Pentavalent 3 vaccination. As reported in the CLR and the ISR, updated information was expected to be released soon. Major Outcome Indicator (ii): Proportion of births (ii) The last ISR: S (November 2016) for project Measures attended by skilled health P123531 reports that 16% of deliveries were personnel attended by skilled birth providers, as of April Baseline (2014): 10% 2014. Partially Achieved. Target (2015/2016): 18% Indicator (ii): Contraceptive (iii) The last ISR: S (November 2016) for project Prevalence Rate among currently P123531 reports a contraceptive prevalence married women: rate of 40.4%, as of April 2014. Achieved. Baseline: 29%; Target: 35% Outcome (ii): Increased Access to The CLR reports the following progress: Quality Education (i) Grade 4: English: 47% and Mathematics: 63% Indicator: Percentage of students (ii) Grade 8: English: 74% and Mathematics: attaining basic competency 68% Baseline (2006/07): (i) Grade 4: Reading in English Management: S for the General Education 48%; Mathematics 46% Quality Improvement Program I (P106855, (ii) Grade 8: English 40%; FY09) reports the following results, for 2011- Mathematics 40% 2012: Target (2015/16): (i) Grade 4: English: 59.6% and Mathematics: (i) Grade 4: Reading in English 56.3% 58%; Mathematics 56% (ii) Grade 8: English: 55.1% and Mathematics: (ii) Grade 8: English 50%; 61.3% Mathematics 50% The last ISR: MS (March 2017) of the General Education Quality Improvement Program II (P129828, FY14) does not present indicators related to basic competency for Grades 4 and 8. However, data from the June 2016 WBG analysis of Ethiopia National Learning Assessments reports the following achievements for 2015: (i) Grade 4: English: 47% and Mathematics: 63% (ii) Grade 8: English: 74% and Mathematics: 62% Annexes CLR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY16 –Focus Area 2: Enhanced Resilience and Actual Results IEG Comments Reduced Vulnerabilities On the basis of these results, the target is Mostly Achieved for Grade 4 students and Achieved for Grade 8 Students Mostly Achieved. Objective 6: Comprehensive Social Protection and Risk Management Outcome (i): Enhanced resilience Management: S for the Productive Safety Net of vulnerable households to APL III Project (P113220, FY10) reports that, food insecurity as of September 2014, the average net number of months of household reporting being food Indicator: Average net number of insecure decreased from 3.64 months to 1.8 months of household food months for clients receiving public works under insecurity the project and from 3.8 months to 1.6 months, Baseline (2014): To be established for clients receiving direct support. The last Target (2016): PW: 3.2 ISR: MS for the Productive Safety Net APL IV Project (P146883, FY15), reports an average of 2.40 months, as of December 2015. Achieved. Outcome (ii): Increased Adoption Mostly Achieved. of Disaster Risk Management Systems Indicator: Number of woredas with (i) Management: S for the Public Sector (i) Functional connectivity, Capacity Building Programs Support Project (ii) Disaster Risk Profiles and (P074020, FY04, closed FY13) reports that the (iii) Contingency Plans woreda net infrastructure expanded to Baseline: (i) zero, (ii) zero, (iii) zero additional 175 new woredas, before the CPS Target: (i) 100, (ii) 100, (iii) 100 period. As reported in the CLR, no additional woredas were connected during the CPS period. Not Achieved. (ii) early warning information on disaster risks was provided in 122 additional woredas, as of December 2013, (see Management: MS for the Pastoral Community Development Project II, P108932, FY08), notably though support of the GFDRR Disaster Risk Management Country Plan (P129151, FY12). Achieved. (iii) Management: S for the Productive Safety Net APL III Project (P113220, FY10) reports that 267 woredas had contingency plans in place, as of June 2015. Achieved. Outcome (iii): Sustainable natural Various projects contributed to this indicator: resource management and - under the Sustainable Land Management resilience to climate change Project (P107139, FY08), 209,926 ha were under sustainable land management (SLM) Indicator: Area (ha) under practices in the targeted watersheds, as of sustainable land and water September 2013 (see IEG: MS) management practices in selected - under the Sustainable Land Management watersheds (PSNP, SLMP, Tana & Project II (P133133, FY14), 504,480 ha were Beles, AGP) brought under climate-smart/resilient and Annexes CLR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY16 –Focus Area 2: Enhanced Resilience and Actual Results IEG Comments Reduced Vulnerabilities Baseline (2010): zero SML as of October 2016 (see last ISR: MS, Target: 1,000,000 of February 2017) - Management: MS for the Tana and Beles Integrated Water Resources Development Project (P096323, FY08) reports that in 79,288 has of land areas, SLM practices have been adopted as of July 2016 - under the Agriculture Growth Program (P113032, FY11), in 217,598 ha of land under SLM practices have been adopted as of December 2015 - the CLR also reports the contribution of the Productive Safety Net APL III Project (P113220, FY10) for which Management: S reports 901,654 ha with improved land and water management technologies. As a result of these five WBG operations, about 1.9 million ha (1,912,946) were under SLM practices. Achieved. CPS FY13-FY16 – Focus Area 3: Good governance and State Actual Results IEG Comments building Objective 7: Improved Public Service Performance Management and Responsiveness Partially Achieved. As reported in the CLR, the four big regions are Indicator (i): Balanced Score Card (i) as reported in the CLR, BSC have been Oromia, Amhara, Tigray (BSC) implemented measuring introduced and implemented in all Federal and SNNP (Southern both organizational and individual ministries and all big four regions under the Nations, Nationalities and performance Public Sector Capacity Building Program people’s regions). Baseline: Support Project – PSCAP (P074020, FY04, Federal ministries: zero closed FY13), as of December 2012 (see Regions: zero Management: S). Achieved. Targets: Major Federal ministries: all Outcome Regions: 4 big regions Measures Indicator (ii): Percent of citizens (ii) the CLR reports that the results are not confident that local government will verified but that results from the Woreda and address their service quality issues City Administrations Benchmarking Survey in key areas (WCBS) from 2010 (see 2010 report) to 2013 Baseline: show a significant decline in confidence among Water:65% citizen respondents that the concerns they raise Health: 58% regarding health service quality will be Targets: addressed (from 58% to 43%), while Water:70% confidence in water service increased from Health: 65% 65% to 68%. The CLR also reports that since the CPSPR, the WCBS has been discontinued. Not Verified. Annexes CLR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY16 – Focus Area 3: Good governance and State Actual Results IEG Comments building Objective 8: Enhanced space for citizen participation in the development process Indicator: Number of woredas that: Partially Achieved. External data from the Worldwide Governance i) facilitate the use of Social (i) 223 woredas have facilitated the use of Indicators indicates that Accountability tools; social accountability tools (see the last ISR: S Ethiopia’s ranking on ii) have developed joint action of April 2017 for the Promoting Basic Services Voice and Accountability plans for service quality Program Phase III Project, P128891, FY13) as remains among the lowest improvement of February 2017. Ethiopia is also benefiting percentiles of the ranking: Baseline (FY11): from the Ethiopia social Accountability Program 11.4 in 2010 and 14.3 in i) 50 Phase 2 (see program). 2015. ii) NA Partially Achieved. Target (FY16): i) 320 (ii) 223 woredas have developed joint actions ii) 300 plans for service quality improvement as of February 2017 (see the last ISR: S of April 2017 for Project, P128891). Mostly Achieved. Objective 9: Enhanced public financial management, procurement, transparency and accountability Mostly Achieved. Indicator (i): Improved PFM (i) As reported in the CLR, a conversion of (i) It is not clear which performance at Federal & regions Ethiopia's 2010 (see data) and 2014 (see data) WBG operations Baseline: PEFA Score of 2.83 out PEFA scores shows that A scores nearly contributed to this of 4 in 2009 for the Federal doubled from 12 to 20, B scores increased by indicator. Government about 50% from 30 to 42 while C scores and Target: PEFA Score of 3.1 (top NA/NS scores both declined. 10% of countries in the Africa However, the information presented in the Region (2011) PEFA reports does not provide a total score out of 4, to compare results with the target. On balance, the target was achieved. Achieved. Indicator (ii): Citizens’ Charters in (ii) the CLR reports that to date 14 federal place across public service at all ministries have developed Citizen's Charters levels of government and that publicizing them has been initiated. It Baseline: also reports that the Amhara region has Federal: one (Ministry of Civil developed charters for all regional bureaus and Service) that three other big regions have developed Regions: zero charters for their Civil Service Bureaus as a Target: model, based on the charter developed by the Federal: All federal Ministries Federal Ministry of Civil Service (see Regions: 4 big regions Management: S for the Public Sector Capacity Building Program Support Project – (P074020, FY04, closed FY13). Achieved. Indicator (iii): Percent of regional (iii) the CLR reports that the number of regional institutions (auditees) with annual institutions with annual financial audits financial audits increased to 80%. This information could not be Baseline: 30% verified by IEG on the basis of the WBG and Target: 50% PEFA documents. Not Achieved. Annexes CLR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Ethiopia Planned and Actual Lending, FY13-FY16 Proposed Proposed Approved Proposed Approved Closing Outcome Project ID Project Name Amount Amount IDA FY FY FY Rating (CPS) (CPSPR) Amount Project Planned Under CPS/CPSPR 2013-2016 Regional Eastern Africa Power DELAYED 2013 Pool Project APL1 - EAPP Transport Sector Project In P117731 2013 2013 2019 415.0 415.0 LIR: MS Support of RSDP4 P123531* Health MDG Support (PforR) 2013 2013 2018 100.0 100.0 LIR: S Promotion of Basic Services (PBS) P128891 2013 2013 2019 600.0 600.0 LIR: S Phase III Education MDG Support (follow-up P129828 2013 2014 2019 130.0 130.0 LIR: MS to GEQIP) Eastern Africa Pastoral Livelihoods DROPPED 2015 25.0 Recovery and Resilience Pastoral Community Development P130276 2013 2014 2019 110.0 110.0 LIR: S (PSDP) III Water Supply, Sanitation and P133591 2014 2014 2019 205.0 205.0 LIR: MS Hygiene (WASH) II Transport Sector Project In P131118 2014 2014 2024 320.0 320.0 LIR: S Support of RSDP4 (Project 2) P133613 Renewable Energy Project 2014 2014 2020 178.5 178.5 LIR: U Urban Local Government (ULGDP) P125316 2014 2012 380.0 150.0 II Sustainable Land Management P133133 2014 2014 2019 50.0 50.0 LIR: MS (SLMP) II Competitiveness and Employment P143302 2014 2014 2020 250.0 250.0 LIR: MS Project DROPPED Macro DPO 2015-16 DROPPED Sector-specific DPOs 2015-16 Agricultural Growth Program P148591 2015-16 2015 2021 350.0 350.0 LIR: S (AGP) II Halele-Werabesa Hydropower DROPPED 2015-16 Project Rural Infrastructure Support DROPPED 2015-16 (PforR) Strengthening Public Expenditure DROPPED 2015-16 Management Project Regional Drought Response DROPPED 2015-16 Program DRM Program/Scalable Safety DROPPED 2015-16 Nets Additional financing to successful DROPPED 2015-16 operations ET Productive Safety Nets Project P146883 2015 2015 2021 600.0 600.0 LIR: MS 4 Ethiopia- Expressway P148850 2015 2015 2022 300.0 370.0 LIR: MS Development Support P150922 Ethiopia PFM Project 2015 2016 2020 50.0 33.0 LIR: S Transport Systems Improvement P151819 2015 2016 2024 100.0 300.0 LIR: S Project Total Planned 3,820.0 4,163.5 4,161.5 Annexes CLR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group Proposed Proposed Approved Proposed Approved Closing Outcome Project ID Project Name Amount Amount IDA FY FY FY Rating (CPS) (CPSPR) Amount Project Unplanned Under CPS/CPSPR 2013-2016 Elect. Network Reinforcement & P119893 2012 2019 200.0 LIR: S Expansio ET:Women Entrepreneurship P122764 2012 2018 50.0 LIR: S Development P133592* ET-Local Govt Dev Project II 2014 2020 380.0 LIR: S P148447 Ethiopia SME Finance Project 2016 2023 200.0 LIR: S Ethiopia Enhancing Shared P151432* 2016 2019 600.0 LIR: S Prosperity Urban Productive Safety Net P151712 2016 2022 300.0 LIR: MS (UPSN) ET:PSNP (APL III) Additional P126430 2012 370.0 Financing ET-Urban WSS Additional P129174 2012 150.0 Financing Additional Finance for Tana Beles P154680 2016 5.1 IWRM P155563 ENREP ADDITIONAL FINANCING 2016 200.0 P158770 Productive Safety Net APL4 AF 2016 100.0 Total Unplanned 0.0 0.0 2,555.1 On-Going Project during the CPS/CPSPR period P049395 ET-Energy Access SIL (FY03) 2003 2013 132.7 IEG: MU P050272 Priv Sec Dev CB 2005 2013 24.0 IEG: S ET/Nile Basin Initiative :ET-SU P074011 2008 2013 41.1 IEG: MS Interconn P074020 ET-Pub Sec Cap Bldg Prj (FY04) 2004 2013 100.0 IEG: S ET-Water Sply & Sanitation SIL P076735 2004 2014 100.0 IEG: S (FY04) ET- Cap. Building for Agric. Serv P079275 2006 2012 54.0 IEG: MU (FY06) ET-Road Sector Dev APL2 under P082998 2005 2012 160.9 IEG: S RSDP ET-APL3-RSDP Stage III Proj P091077 2007 2015 225.0 IEG: MS (FY07) ET-Irrigation & Drainage SIL P092353 2007 2018 100.0 LIR: U (FY07) P094704 Financial Sector Cap Bldg. Project 2006 2012 15.0 IEG: S ET-Tana &Beles Int. Wat Res Dev P096323 2008 2017 45.0 LIR: MS Project ET-Electricity Access (Rural) P097271 2006 2013 133.4 IEG: MS Expansion ET-Multi-Sectoral HIV/AIDS II P098031 2007 2012 30.0 IEG: MS (FY07) P098132 ET-Tourism Develop. Project SIL 2009 2016 35.0 IEG: MS P101473 ET-Urban WSS SIL FY07) 2007 2018 100.0 LIR: MS Annexes CLR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group Proposed Proposed Approved Proposed Approved Closing Outcome Project ID Project Name Amount Amount IDA FY FY FY Rating (CPS) (CPSPR) Amount ET-Urban Local Govt Development P101474 2008 2015 150.0 IEG: S (FY08) ET-Elect. Access Rural II SIL P101556 2008 2015 130.0 IEG: MU (FY07) ET-Protect. Basic Serv. Phase II P103022 2009 2013 540.0 IEG: MS (FY09) P106228 ET-Nutrition SIL (FY08) 2008 2014 30.0 IEG: S ET-General Educ Quality Improv. P106855 2009 2014 50.0 IEG: MS (FY09) P106872 ET-RSDP Stage IV APL (FY09) 2009 2017 245.0 LIR: S ET-Sustainable Land Mngt SIL P107139 2008 2014 20.0 IEG: MS (FY08) ET-Pastoral Community Develpt II P108932 2008 2014 80.0 IEG: S (FY08) P113032 ET: Agricultural Growth Program 2011 2017 150.0 LIR: MS ET Productive Safety Nets (APL P113220 2010 2015 480.0 IEG: MS III) Total On-Going 0.0 0.0 3,171.1 Source: Ethiopia CPS and CPSPR, WB Business Intelligence Table 2b.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 2/24/17 LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. *: Program-for-Results (PforR) project Annexes CLR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Ethiopia, FY13-FY16 Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type P068269 ET-Value Chain Analysis FY13 Not assigned P111428 ET-Rural Access to Solve Dev. Constraint FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note ET: Decentralized Service Delivery SP HNP P117761 ED FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P123675 ET: Public Sector Reform Approach FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P130679 Accountability Issues in Power Sector FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P132760 Ethiopia Mining Sector Assessment FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P143203 MTDS Ethiopia FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P143270 FPD Policy Notes FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P143477 ET Skills for Competitiveness and Growth FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P144039 Review of Road Construction Costs FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P144704 Public Sector Staff Turnover Study FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P146355 Procurement Value Chain Analysis FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P146519 Ethiopia Urbanization Review FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P147357 Ethiopia Poverty Assessment FY15 Poverty Assessment (PA) P147500 Sustainability of Growth Model FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P147915 AML/CFT Assessment of Ethiopia FY15 AML/CFT Assessment P147972 ET Urban & Metropolitan Transport Review FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P148336 Ethiopia PER FY16 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P148696 IGFT Study FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P149510 Ethiopia PEFA 2014 Regional Reports FY16 Public Expenditure Financial Accountability P149693 Ethiopia PEFA 2014 - Federal Report FY16 Public Expenditure Financial Accountability P149707 Ethiopia PEFA 2014 - Synthesis report FY16 Public Expenditure Financial Accountability P153098 Ethiopia Health Financing FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P154767 Innovation Policy Note FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P155912 Review of education sector financing FY16 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P155913 Quality of education FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P155996 Health Equity: Reaching the bottom 40% FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P156813 Strengthening Urban Resilience Ethiopia FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type P099439 ET-Poverty and Migration FY13 Technical Assistance P116863 ET: GEQIP Student Assessment Phase 1&2 FY15 Technical Assistance P118736 Insurance for High-Value Livestock in ET FY13 Technical Assistance P123637 ET-Gender & Impact Evaluation (FY14) FY15 Technical Assistance P123906 Ethiopia - ICT for Transformation FY14 Technical Assistance P127362 Ethiopia: EITI Implementation Support FY14 Technical Assistance P128935 ET-Sustainable Groundwater Devel FY15 Technical Assistance P129047 ET: TA for Land Administration FY15 Technical Assistance P129163 ET: Competitiveness and Job Creation FY14 Technical Assistance Annexes CLR Review 30 Independent Evaluation Group P129963 ET Support to Social Protection Strategy FY14 Technical Assistance P130424 Ethiopia #10108 Reg FY14 Technical Assistance P130993 Ethiopia Statistics for Results Project FY14 Technical Assistance P132042 Ethiopia #10279 Cheque Standard. Project FY14 Technical Assistance P132078 Building Capacity for Sanitation FY16 Technical Assistance P132079 Performance Monitoring for Sanitation FY15 Technical Assistance P132093 CFL and Incandescent Lamp recycling FY15 Technical Assistance P132844 ET CHYAO FY14 Technical Assistance P133472 Expanding rural ICT access in Ethiopia FY14 Technical Assistance P143359 Implementation of AML/CFT Proclamation FY15 Technical Assistance P143838 Et-International Health Partnerships Pro FY14 Technical Assistance P144864 Public Sector Capacity Building Facility FY15 Technical Assistance P145643 ET-Analysis of Urban LG Fiscal Position FY15 Technical Assistance P147742 Ethiopia TA for UHC FY15 Technical Assistance P147787 Ethiopia Debt Management Reform Plan FY14 Technical Assistance P148208 Ethiopia Gender, Agriculture and Entrepr FY16 Technical Assistance P149104 Ethiopia#A038 Improving eff of Pay. Sys FY16 Technical Assistance P149520 Service Delivery and Impact FY15 Technical Assistance P151586 Ethiopia: CSO Support FY16 Technical Assistance P151905 Capacity Building on Procurement Audit FY16 Technical Assistance P155853 Equity Impact of Block Grants FY16 Technical Assistance P155854 Health Equity-Child Nutrition FY16 Technical Assistance P156145 Support to poverty measurement FY16 Technical Assistance P156228 Capacity Building Needs Asst of FEAC FY16 Technical Assistance P156229 Training Support to FEACC and REACCs FY15 Technical Assistance P159432 Evaluation of MDG Specific Purpose Grant FY16 Technical Assistance P159915 External Audit Firms Assessment FY16 Technical Assistance Source: WB Business Intelligence 02/24/17 Annexes CLR Review 31 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Ethiopia Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY13-16 Project Approval Closing Approved Outcome Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount Rating P155563 ENREP ADDITIONAL FINANCING TF A2302 2016 2018 5,000,000 P156400 Ethiopia: Supporting Open Data Initiative TF A1329 2016 2018 300,000 P146883 ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) TF A3267 2015 2021 1,388,981 P146883 ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) TF A1426 2015 2021 77,684,381 LIR: MS Ethiopia: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative P116455 TF 18161 2015 2018 600,000 Implementation P133613 Ethiopia Geothermal Sector Development Project TF 17206 2014 2020 24,500,000 LIR: U P147356 Ethiopia Statistics for Results Project TF 17115 2014 2017 10,000,000 LIR: MS P133410 Sustainable Land Management Project TF 15868 2014 2019 8,333,000 LIR: MS P133410 Sustainable Land Management Project TF 15869 2014 2019 4,629,000 P133133 Sustainable Land Management Project-II TF 15838 2014 2019 40,000,000 LIR: MS Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement P129828 TF 18053 2015 2019 184,550,772 LIR: MS Project II Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement P129828 TF 16684 2014 2018 100,000,000 LIR: MS Project II P130142 Ethiopia Climate Innovation Center TF 14509 2014 2018 5,000,000 NR P123531 Ethiopia Health MDG Support Operation TF 14815 2014 2018 400,000 P123531 Ethiopia Health MDG Support Operation TF 14107 2013 2018 20,000,000 LIR: S Ethiopia Promoting Basic Services Program Phase III P128891 TF 13952 2013 2019 615,743,000 LIR: S Project P122764 Women Entrepreneurship Development Project TF 16392 2014 2018 5,171,692 LIR: S Ethiopia Protection of Basic Services Social P129534 TF 99878 2012 2017 29,032,899 LIR: S Accountability Program Ethiopia Disaster Risk Management Country Plan P129151 TF 11209 2012 2015 1,275,000 Project, Phase I P127507 Agricultural Growth Project - Additional Financing TF 11306 2012 2016 50,000,000 IEG: MS P125487 Ethiopia: Support to Artisan Miners (JSDF) TF 98807 2012 2017 2,865,050 P125475 LSMS-ISA Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey TF 98979 2011 2016 1,832,356 Ethiopian Diaspora Health and Education P119064 TF 99283 2011 2013 640,000 Professionals Mobilization Project Strengthening Capacity for Mobilizing and Engaging P121226 TF 98159 2011 2014 485,735 the Ethiopian Diaspora P121863 Support to Accountancy Profession in Ethiopia TF 98157 2011 2014 499,800 P113032 ET: Agricultural Growth Program TF 99729 2012 2016 56,200,000 LIR: MS BEIA-Promotion of Ethanol Micro-Distilleries in P120040 TF 96664 2011 2014 148,000 Ethiopia P118700 EFA FTI CF Grant 2 - GEQIP APL 1 TF 97263 2011 2014 98,000,000 IEG: MS Innovative Pilot Scheme Would Match Seeds to the P121010 TF 96713 2010 2013 200,000 Needs of Women Farmers P113220 Productive Safety Net APL III TF 17669 2015 2015 79,055,471 IEG: MS P113220 Productive Safety Net APL III TF 11173 2012 2015 8,508,090 IEG: MS P113220 Productive Safety Net APL III TF 99450 2011 2015 122,181,697 IEG: MS P124074 Ethiopia-FCPF REDD READINESS TF A2005 2016 2018 6,266,817 NR Annexes CLR Review 32 Independent Evaluation Group Project Approval Closing Approved Outcome Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount Rating P124074 Ethiopia-FCPF REDD READINESS TF 17284 2014 2018 10,000,000 NR P124074 Ethiopia-FCPF REDD READINESS TF 13450 2013 2016 3,600,000 General Education Quality Improvement Project - P106855 TF 94224 2010 2014 218,000,000 IEG: MS APL 1 (GEQIP) General Education Quality Improvement Project - P106855 TF 93227 2009 2014 70,000,000 IEG: MS APL 1 (GEQIP) Ethiopia Electricity Access Rural Expansion Project, P105651 TF 92601 2009 2013 1,800,000 Phase II - GPOBA Ethiopia Electricity Access Rural Expansion Project, P105651 TF 92600 2009 2013 6,200,000 IEG: MU Phase II - GPOBA Ethiopia Protection of Basic Services Program Phase P103022 TF 12730 2013 2013 67,582,623 IEG: MS II Project Ethiopia Protection of Basic Services Program Phase P103022 TF 97831 2012 2013 6,262,129 IEG: MS II Project Ethiopia Protection of Basic Services Program Phase P103022 TF 97830 2012 2013 863,742 II Project Ethiopia Protection of Basic Services Program Phase P103022 TF 95106 2010 2013 36,996,764 IEG: MS II Project P090789 ET-Sustainable Land Management Program (FY08) TF 92320 2009 2014 9,000,000 NR Tana & Beles Integrated Water Resources P096323 TF 95045 2010 2015 3,484,679 Development P106228 Ethiopia Nutrition (FY08) TF 10247 2012 2013 650,000 P106228 Ethiopia Nutrition (FY08) TF 93946 2009 2014 1,810,434 P076735 Ethiopia Water Supply and Sanitation Project TF 91704 2008 2014 111,675,531 IEG: S Total 2,108,417,643 Source: Client Connection as of 02/27/17 * IEG Validates RETF that are 5M and above ** NR: No rating - ISR not available Annexes CLR Review 33 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Ethiopia, FY13-16 Total Exit Proj ID Project name Evaluated IEG Outcome IEG Risk to DO FY ($M) 2013 P049395 ET-Energy Access SIL (FY03) 163.3 UNSATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT MODERATELY 2013 P050272 Priv Sec Dev CB 15.4 MODERATE SATISFACTORY ET/Nile Basin Initiative:ET-SU MODERATELY 2013 P074011 39.3 NEGLIGIBLE TO LOW Interconn SATISFACTORY 2013 P074020 ET-Pub Sec Cap Bldg Prj (FY04) 130.9 SATISFACTORY MODERATE ET-Electricity Access (Rural) MODERATELY 2013 P097271 111.8 SIGNIFICANT Expansion UNSATISFACTORY ET-Protect. Basic Serv. Phase II MODERATELY 2013 P103022 981.4 MODERATE (FY09) SATISFACTORY GPOBA W3: Ethiopia Rural Elect 2013 P105651 0.0 UNSATISFACTORY HIGH Expn, Ph2 ET-Water Sply & Sanitation SIL MODERATELY 2014 P076735 169.5 SIGNIFICANT (FY04) SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2014 P106228 ET-Nutrition SIL (FY08) 26.7 MODERATE SATISFACTORY ET-General Educ Quality Improv. MODERATELY 2014 P106855 51.0 SIGNIFICANT (FY09) SATISFACTORY ET-Sustainable Land Mngt SIL MODERATELY 2014 P107139 17.8 MODERATE (FY08) SATISFACTORY ET-Pastoral Community Develpt II MODERATELY 2014 P108932 74.4 SIGNIFICANT (FY08) SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2015 P091077 ET-APL3-RSDP Stage III Proj (FY07) 228.2 SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY ET-Urban Local Govt Development 2015 P101474 288.1 SATISFACTORY NEGLIGIBLE TO LOW (FY08) MODERATELY 2016 P098132 ET-Tourism Develop. Project SIL 34.8 MODERATE SATISFACTORY Total 2,332.4 Source: AO Key IEG Ratings as of 02/24/17 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Ethiopia and Comparators, FY13-16 Total Total RDO % RDO % Outcome Outcome Region Evaluated Evaluated Moderate or Lower Moderate or Lower % Sat ($) % Sat (No) ($M) (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Ethiopia 2,332.4 15 88.2 80.0 65.8 53.3 AFR 13,361.9 275 78.9 68.8 36.8 32.6 World 73,278.0 898 84.9 71.5 58.8 44.8 Source: WB AO as of 02/24/17 * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annexes CLR Review 34 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Ethiopia and Comparators, FY13-16 Fiscal year 2013 2014 2015 2016 Ave FY13-16 Ethiopia # Proj 24 26 25 29 26 # Proj At Risk 6 5 4 4 5 % Proj At Risk 25.0 19.2 16.0 13.8 18.5 Net Comm Amt 4,260.8 5,442.2 5,209.9 6,863.2 5,444 Comm At Risk 830.0 677.9 560.0 581.4 662 % Commit at Risk 19.5 12.5 10.7 8.5 12.8 AFR # Proj 566 620 643 659 622 # Proj At Risk 128 138 136 144 137 % Proj At Risk 22.6 22.3 21.2 21.9 22.0 Net Comm Amt 42,649.1 49,142.6 54,586.3 59,033.9 51,353 Comm At Risk 14,310.8 16,548.2 16,000.3 18,949.8 16,452 % Commit at Risk 33.6 33.7 29.3 32.1 32.2 World # Proj 1,964 2,048 2,022 1,975 2,002 # Proj At Risk 414 412 444 422 423 % Proj At Risk 21.1 20.1 22.0 21.4 21.1 Net Comm Amt 176,202.6 192,610.1 201,045.2 220,331.5 197,547 Comm At Risk 40,805.6 40,933.5 45,987.7 44,244.9 42,993 % Commit at Risk 23.2 21.3 22.9 20.1 21.8 Source: WB BI as of 02/27/17 Annexes CLR Review 35 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Ethiopia, FY13-16 Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 Overall Result Ethiopia Disbursement Ratio (%) 39.1 42.5 24.2 27.1 32.7 Inv Disb in FY 884.9 943.5 559.4 805.8 3,193.7 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 2,263.4 2,217.9 2,310.8 2,969.6 9,761.7 AFR Disbursement Ratio (%) 22.5 23.1 24.5 19.6 22.4 Inv Disb in FY 5,652.1 6,143.9 6,473.2 5,572.5 23,841.8 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 25,175.9 26,540.4 26,463.6 28,377.1 106,557.0 World Disbursement Ratio (%) 20.6 20.8 21.8 19.5 20.6 Inv Disb in FY 20,510.7 20,757.7 21,853.7 21,152.9 84,275.0 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 99,588.3 99,854.3 100,344.9 108,600.3 408,387.7 * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. AO disbursement ratio table as of 05/10/17 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Ethiopia, FY13-16 Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer FY13 889,748,726.5 12,034,096.7 877,714,629.7 - 19,872,509.4 857,842,120.4 FY14 923,545,873.6 12,629,233.6 910,916,640.1 - 25,993,287.0 884,923,353.0 FY15 744,234,563.2 18,787,859.8 725,446,703.4 - 29,609,903.8 695,836,799.7 FY16 1,103,218,287.5 18,527,658.3 1,084,690,629.2 - 35,024,776.1 1,049,665,853.1 Report 3,660,747,450.8 61,978,848.4 3,598,768,602.4 - 110,500,476.3 3,488,268,126.2 Total World Bank Client Connection 02/28/17 Annexes CLR Review 36 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid Development Partners 2013 2014 2015 Australia 12.77 9.94 4.69 Austria 10.79 9.67 9.52 Belgium 2.54 3.36 2.12 Canada 125.17 108.12 119.57 Czech Republic 3.46 3.72 3.79 Denmark 12.21 16.64 7.17 Finland 20.95 40.89 29.52 France 46.84 52.41 16.77 Germany 87.39 58.34 57.62 Greece 0.09 0.09 0.08 Iceland 0.21 0.42 0.45 Ireland 45.79 48.27 44.86 Italy -18.31 10.63 22.21 Japan 140.69 82.77 60.58 Korea 28.58 42.91 48.41 Luxembourg 0.78 0.88 0.69 Netherlands 77.19 89.95 95.98 New Zealand 0.04 0.21 0.28 Norway 57.24 60.06 62.47 Poland 0.27 23.48 32.55 Portugal 0.04 0.05 0.05 Slovak Republic 0.02 0.02 0.01 Spain 8.18 7.96 8.26 Sweden 28.71 35.21 41.29 Switzerland 10.01 14.21 21.01 United Kingdom 551.46 529.72 551.37 United States 690.21 664.84 738.95 DAC Countries, Total 1943.33 1914.77 1980.28 EU Institutions 121.67 267.85 183.64 International Monetary Fund, Total .. -5.08 -39.62 IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) .. -5.08 -39.62 Regional Development Banks, Total 349.64 173.18 164.73 African Development Bank, Total 349.64 173.18 164.73 African Development Bank [AfDB] 1.45 .. 0.44 African Development Fund [AfDF] 348.18 173.18 164.29 United Nations, Total 145.23 124.75 125.03 Food and Agriculture Organisation [FAO] 0.37 .. .. International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] 1.21 0.86 0.74 Annexes CLR Review 37 Independent Evaluation Group Development Partners 2013 2014 2015 IFAD 55.36 31.53 25.5 International Labour Organisation [ILO] 0.48 0.33 0.49 UNAIDS 1.76 1.26 0.98 UNDP 13.91 15.17 12.62 UNFPA 5.74 6.53 7.95 UNICEF 44.03 40.22 45.9 WFP 18.98 26.49 26.72 World Health Organisation [WHO] 3.39 2.37 4.13 World Bank Group 958.65 877.44 770.88 World Bank, Total 958.65 877.44 770.88 International Development Association [IDA] 958.65 877.44 770.88 Multilateral, Total 1969.32 1660.3 1537.52 Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa [BADEA] 4.84 1.55 3.49 Climate Investment Funds [CIF] .. .. 0.23 Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization [GAVI] 108.44 114.45 150.03 Global Environment Facility [GEF] 6.35 6.93 7.73 Global Fund 272.72 101.4 170.31 Global Green Growth Institute [GGGI] 2.39 1.78 .. Nordic Development Fund [NDF] -0.63 -0.74 -0.74 OPEC Fund for International Development [OFID] 0.02 -3.23 1.81 Other Multilateral, Total 394.14 222.15 332.85 Estonia 0.01 0.02 0.12 Hungary 0.13 0.03 0.07 Israel 0.79 0.35 0.14 Kuwait (KFAED) 3.44 3.09 6.71 Malta .. 0.05 0.04 Romania .. 0 0.01 Russia 2.65 .. 0.27 Thailand 0.02 0.04 0.03 Turkey 2.81 3.65 0.82 United Arab Emirates 0.04 2.42 2.51 Non-DAC Countries, Total 9.89 9.66 10.72 Development Partners Total 3922.55 3584.72 3528.51 Source: OECD Stat, [DAC2a] as of 02/27/17 Annexes CLR Review 38 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Ethiopia, 2012 – 2015 Ethiopia AFR World Series Name 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average 2012-2015 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 8.6 10.6 10.3 9.6 9.8 4.0 2.6 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 5.9 7.8 7.5 6.9 7.0 1.2 1.4 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 1,250.0 1,370.0 1,500.0 1,620.0 1,435.0 3,407.1 14,878.1 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) (Millions) 410.0 470.0 550.0 590.0 505.0 1,669.2 10,672.7 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 22.8 8.1 7.4 10.1 12.1 4.8 2.7 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 48.0 44.9 41.9 41.0 43.9 17.8 3.9 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 10.3 11.9 14.7 16.3 13.3 25.8 28.1 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 41.8 43.2 43.4 42.8 42.8 56.1 67.9 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 37.1 34.1 38.0 39.3 37.1 20.5 23.3 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) 19.2 17.6 20.5 21.8 19.8 18.4 24.5 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 13.8 12.5 11.6 9.8 11.9 28.6 30.2 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 31.6 29.0 29.1 27.3 29.3 31.3 29.6 Current account balance (% of GDP) (6.9) .. .. .. -6.9 External debt stocks (% of GNI) 24.2 26.4 29.9 33.3 28.5 Total debt service (% of GNI) 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.8 Total reserves in months of imports .. .. .. .. 4.9 13.2 Fiscal Accounts /1 General government revenue (% of GDP) 15.9 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.5 General government total expenditure (% of GDP) 17.1 18.2 17.7 17.5 17.6 General government net lending/borrowing (% of GDP) (1.2) (3.0) (2.3) (2.1) -2.1 Annexes CLR Review 39 Independent Evaluation Group Ethiopia AFR World Series Name 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average 2012-2015 General government gross debt (% of GDP) 21.6 23.0 23.8 24.0 23.1 Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 62.8 63.4 64.0 .. 63.4 58.1 71.2 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) 69.0 72.0 77.0 86.0 76.0 73.5 85.3 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 24.3 25.5 26.8 28.0 26.2 29.2 66.7 Improved water source (% of population with access) 42.7 44.7 46.7 48.6 45.7 54.5 83.4 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 46.2 44.5 42.9 41.4 43.8 58.9 33.2 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) 17.6 .. 25.1 .. 21.3 20.6 43.0 School enrollment, primary (% gross) 94.8 .. 100.1 .. 97.5 98.0 105.2 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 36.2 .. .. .. 36.2 42.2 74.7 Population Population, total 92,191,211 94,558,374 96,958,732 99,390,750 95,774,767 961,632,590 7,218,239,265 Population growth (annual %) 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.5 18.8 37.0 53.2 Source: DDP as of 02/27/17 *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, November 2016 Annexes CLR Review 40 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Ethiopia (US$,000) Investments Committed in FY13-FY16 Project Cmt Project Net Net Primary Sector Name Project Size Net Comm ID FY Status Loan Equity 36565 2016 Active Finance & Insurance 375,000 35,000 - 35,000 Accommodation & Tourism 33201 2015 Active 37,720 9,430 - 9,430 Services 35023 2015 Closed Agriculture and Forestry 9,012 8,976 - 8,976 35938 2015 Active Agriculture and Forestry 96,660 55,848 - 55,848 33523 2014 Active Food & Beverages 6,000 3,000 3,000 32846 2014 Closed Finance & Insurance 75,000 45,000 - 45,000 Sub-Total 599,392 154,254 3,000 157,254 Investments Committed pre-FY12 but active during FY13-16 Project CMT Project Net Net Primary Sector Name Project Size Net Comm ID FY Status Loan Equity 32023 2012 Closed Oil, Gas and Mining 1,303 1,058 1,058 32433 2012 Closed Oil, Gas and Mining 2,021 2,021 2,021 29979 2011 Closed Oil, Gas and Mining 17,905 10,532 10,532 29228 2011 Closed Agriculture and Forestry 10,000 3,655 3,655 29440 2010 Closed Oil, Gas and Mining 15,635 14,433 14,433 Nonmetallic Mineral Product 26410 2008 Active 351,000 55,000 - 55,000 Manufacturing Sub-Total 397,864 58,655 28,044 86,700 TOTAL 997,257 212,910 31,044 243,954 Source: IFC-MIS Extract as of end 1/31/17 Annexes CLR Review 41 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Ethiopia (US$) Advisory Services Approved in FY13-16 Impl Impl Primary Project Project Total Funds, Project Name Start End Business ID Status US$ FY FY Line 601053 Ethiopia - Livestock - MIRA 2016 2020 ACTIVE TAC 2,100,000 Secured Transactions & Collateral 601522 2016 2019 ACTIVE FAM 462,318 Registries Ethiopia 600201 Lighting Africa Ethiopia 2015 2018 ACTIVE CAS 2,921,328 600316 Ethiopia Investment Policy 2015 2017 ACTIVE TAC 1,800,000 Sub Saharan Africa Credit Bureau African 600666 2015 2018 ACTIVE FAM 510,000 Countries Consolidated 600108 Ethiopian Geothermal Advisory Services 2014 2016 CLOSED CAS 1,443,718 599466 Ethiopia IC: Trade Logistics Project 2013 2017 ACTIVE TAC 1,900,000 599467 Ethiopia IC: Business Taxation Project 2013 2017 ACTIVE TAC 1,140,000 599468 Ethiopia IC: Business Regulation 2013 2017 ACTIVE TAC 1,580,000 Sub-Total 13,857,364 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY12 but active during FY13-16 Impl Impl Primary Project Project Total Funds, Project Name Start End Business ID Status US$ FY FY Line 553065 Ethiopia Business Forum 2011 2016 CLOSED TAC 1,084,206 582987 Ethiopia CIC Project 2011 2013 CLOSED IC 202,653 570287 Access to Finance for Producers/Farmers 2009 2014 CLOSED A2F 1,142,037 Sub-Total 2,428,896 TOTAL 16,286,260 Source: IFC AS Data as of 3/15/17 Annexes CLR Review 42 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 14: IFC net commitment activity in Ethiopia, FY12 - FY16 (US$, 000) Pre FY-13 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Percentages Financial Markets - 45,000 - 35,000 80,000 32.8% Agribusiness & Forestry 3,655 - 64,824 68,480 28.1% Packaged Food & - 3,000 - 3,000 1.2% Beverages Other MAS Sectors 55,000 - 55,000 22.5% Tourism, Retail, Construction & Real - - 9,430 - 9,430 3.9% Estates (TRP) Oil, Gas & Mining 28,044 28,044 11.5% Total 86,700 - 48,000 74,254 35,000 243,954 100.0% Source: IFC MIS as of 4/4/17 Annex Table 15: List of Active MIGA Activities in Ethiopia, 2013-2016 (US$, millions) Project Max Gross ID Contract Enterprise FY Sector Investor Status Issuance Africa Juice Tibila Share Company, 7879 2015 Active Agribusiness South Africa 1.1 Ethiopia Virgin Islands 9334 National Cement Share Company 2011 Active Manufacturing 4.0 (British) Netherlands - 7879 Africa Juice Tibila Share Company 2010 Active Agribusiness 10.0 South Africa Total 15.1 Source: MIGA 4/3/17