WORLDBANKGROUP GROPE Q GFDRR EI ANDCENTRALA5IA (ECA) RI5K PROFILES AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE Albamia 0.ouain29mlin GDP $11.6 billion* A lbania's population and econo- my are exposed to earthquakes remainder Albania's per capita GDP was $3,990. KOSOVO SER"A and floods, with earthquakes posing the greater risk of a high impact, This map displays GDP by prow BULrTRIA lower probability event. The model ince in Albania, with greater color results for present-day risk shown in sut i g this risk profile are based on population within a province. The blue circles and gross domestic product (GDP) esti- i t s f e mates for 2015. The estimated damage floods and the orange circles the caused by historical events is inflated to r of er 2015 US dollars. normalized annual average of affected GDI. The largest circles F MCED I Just over half of Albania's population represent the greatest normalized lives in urban environments. The coun- risk The risk is estimated using A v ed % try's GDP was approximately US$11.6 flood and earthquake risk models. billion in 2015, with close to 70 percent T tabT d0 the p derived from services and with in- T e ss dustry and agriculture generating the at greatest normalized risk for I hARTHQUAKE k .- 4 TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES each peril. In relative terms, as shown in the table, the province at greatest risk of floods is Shko- a I 'L24 o Negligible der, and the one at greatest risk Gas - ~~~~of earthquakes is Pier In absoluteGP(blinof) EARTHQUAKE terms, the province at greatest ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF risk of floods is also Shkoder, and AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) the one at greatest risk of earth- Shkoder Shkader Fier Fier quakes is Tirane.0 0 0B 9 T eALC Mirdite Lushnje 8 Permet Tirane 7 Tepelene Durres 7 Tepeene Dures 7There is a high Correlation Lushnje Kucove 7 (r=0.95) between the Fier Delvine 7 population and GDP ala Diber Kavaje 6 province. Kurbin 2 Gjirokaster 6 Gin r Tropoje 2 Vlore 6 Masaakaster Kurhin 6greterGD i Aa ia WORLDBANKGROUP RI R ANDEENTRAL A51A (ECA) ELGF T he most deadly flood in If the 10- and 100-year bars are the Albania since 1900 occurred same height, then the impact of a 10- SER B IA in 1992. It killed 11 Albanians year event is as large as that of a 100- and caused close to $12 million in year event, and the annual average of damage. Flooding in 2002 caused one affected GDP is dominated by events BUt GARIA fatality but about twice the damage that happen relatively frequently. KOSOVO ($23 million) of the 1992 flood. Dam- If the impact of a 100-year event is aging flooding also took place on the much greater than that of a 10-year Drina River in 2010. event, then less frequent events make a larger contribution to the annual aeEdk This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP. Thus, even MaasE,ah ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GDP - as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more Puke age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large ukes saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods The annual average population affect- of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in Albania is about Fr (black). The horizontal line across the 50,000 and the annual average affect- bars also shows the annual average of ed GDP about $200 million. Within the various provinces, the 10- and Durres *Tlrana GDP affected by floods. 100-year impacts do not differ much, Tirane When a flood has a 10-year return so relatively frequent floods have Librahd Affected GOP (%) for period, it means the probability of large impacts on these averages. toava and 100-year return periods occurrence of a flood of that magni- Lushnje in Elbasan ,-b tude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year flood has a probability ADRIATIC SEA Kucove G 20 rli of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of erat _.._ Krce 4 Annual avorage - 5 time, a flood of that magnitude will, Ma ISkrapar P Devoll F7 on average, occur once every 100 10-year 100-year years. It does not mean a 100-year flood will occur exactly once every VIore 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a PC, Annual Average of Affected GDP(% flood of any return period to occur G rokaster more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not De to happen at all over a long period of a C P time. Sarande Al i WORLDBANKGROUP GRO E ANDEENTRALA5IA(ECA) A lbania's most deadly earth- to occur more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive quake since 1900 took place in 1920 in Tepelene, with years, or not to happen at all over a SERBIA a magnitude of 6. The earthquake long period of time. and the tsunami that followed caused about 600 fatalities. Since If the 10- and 100-year-bars are the KOSOVO then, Albania has experienced many same height, then the impact of a 10- earthquakes of varying severity. A year event is as large as that of a 100- BULGARIA significant earthquake that occurred year event, and the annual average of in 1967 caused 18 fatalities and $140 affected GDP is dominated by events million in damage. that happen relatively frequently. If the impact of a 100-year event isHa This map depicts the impact of much greater than that of a 10-year earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, event, then less frequent events make represented as percentages of their larger contributions to the annual av- annual average GDPs affected, with erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a greater color saturation indicating province's annual affected GDP seems higher percentages. The bar graphs small, less frequent and more intense Kurbin R MACEDON A Jbou represent GDP affected by earth- events can still have large impacts. years (white) and 100 years (black). The annual average population affect- returnake quake perod ofbni wit 0 The horizontal line across the bars e a k i n b also shows the annual average of GDP 200,000 and the annual average affected by earthquakes. 10 and 100-year retur periods The annual averages of fatalities and One block -10% 100 When an earthquake has a 10-year capital losses caused by earthquakes return period, it means the probabil- are about 50 and about $100 million, ity of occurrence of an earthquake respectively The fatalities and capital of that magnitude or greater is 10 losses caused by more intense, less Anmy2 aerage 20 percent per year. A 100-year earth- frequent events can he substantial- quake has a probability of occurrence ly larger than the annual averages. 10-year 100-year of 1 percent per year. This means For example, an earthquake with that over a long period of time, an a 0.4 percent annual probability of earthquake of that magnitude will, on occurrence (a 250-year return period Au A o A GOP ( average, occur once every 100 years. event) could cause neariy 3,000 It does not mean a 100-year earth- fatalities and $2 billion in capital loss quake will occur exactly once every (about 20 percent of GOP). 100 years. In fact, it is possible for Tepelene an earthquake of any return perihod Gj kaster a nWORLDBANKGROUP GF DP CENTRALA1A (ECA) AND ' )EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential for greatest annual average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk modeL The potential for greatest capital Kavaje er Kava E an loss occurs in Tirane, which is not surprising, given the economic importance of the province. ---------- - - - - - - - - - - - --- ---- ------ ---------------------------- ----------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------- - - - - - - - ----------------------- ---------- EARTHQUAK EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE 2015 AND 080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP E affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 3.0 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different 60 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected 2DP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts 2080 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 2.0 40 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Al- bania had exterienced a 100-year return period flood event 30 in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an estimated $700 million. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the 2015 d- same type of event would range from about $2 billion to 0.5 2015 abo $2.5 billion. If Albania had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been about $10 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the Re year)Rtupodysame type of event would range from about $30 billion to ..about $60 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, in 1 and the increase in exposed assets. Probability '%)Probability % All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from, respectively, D.Guha-Sapir, R.Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Uiveirsit6 Catholique de Loiuvain, BruIsel, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi10 7289/V5TD9V7K. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.