'NNPS Policy Research WUVA'Wl1G PAPERS - Populatlon, Health, and Nutrition Population and Human Resources Department The World Bank November 1992 WPS 1032 East Asia and Pacific Region South Asia Region Population Projections 1992-93 Edition Eduard Bos My T. Vu and Ann Levin The Bank's largest region is East Asia and Pacific, which currently has 30 percent of the world's population. It is followed by South Asia with 21 percent, Africa with 10 percent, Europe and Central Asia with 9 percent, Latin America and the Carib- bean with 8 percent, and Middle East and North Africa with 5 percent. Policy RcscachWorking Papas disseminatethe findings of woik in progress and uncoungethecxchangeof ideas amongBank staff aid &1lothers uniested in developmentissues.lbesepapars, duidutd bytheReseachAdvisty Staff,cany thenames oftheiauthons,efcct onlytheirviewsandshlldbeusedmand citedaccordingly. Thefindinga,inwrations.andcmclusionsaretheauthou'own.leyshould not be atunbuted to the Wodd Bank. its Board of Directors. its management, or any of its memnbe countries. Policy Research Population, Health, and Nutrtion WPS 1032 This paper is a product of the Population, Health, and Nutrition Division and the Population Policy and Advisory Service of the Population and Human Resources Department. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Otilia Nadora, room S6-065, extension 31091 (November 1992). Population projections for all countries are fertility will be reached in the region as a whole prepared annually by the Bank's Population and are detennined by the trends in individual Human Resources Department. They are pub- countries with the slowest decline; the Asian lished first in summary form in the Bank's subregion aggregates will therefore be late in World Development Report and later in greater achieving this. detail as technical notes or working papers and, in alternate years, as a book. * South Asia has the worst mortality condi- tions of the Asian subregions, but improvement Separate papers cover the six Bank regions: has been quite rapid since the mid-1970s, with (1) Africa (Sub-Saharan), (2) Latin America and life expectancy increasing from 49 to 59 years the Caribbean (and Northern America), (3) East currently. Life expectancy in Southwest Asia is Asia and Pacific region and South Asia region near the world's average, while it is well above combined, and (4) Europe and Central Asia that in East and Southeast Asia at 70 years. East region and Middle East and North Afnica region and Southeast Asia contains some of the coun- combined. tries (Japan and Hong Kong) with the highest measured life expectancies in the world. Ahmong trends observed: A The most populous country in the world is In Asia, most countries have begun the China, with a population of 1.2 billion. Its transition from high to low fertility, with de- population growth rate, 1.5 percent in the early clines in many countries starting before and 1990s, is low for a low-income country and is during the 1970s. In East and Southeast Asia, due to the low level of fertility achieved in the fertility has already reached a low level of 2.5 last two decades. children per woman. South Asia, at 4.1 children per woman, has progressed less far in this * India, the second most populous country, process, and Southwest Asia has still further to has an estimated population of 883 million in go. But each subregion of the Asian continent 1992. Because of its higher total fertility rate, it includes countries at different stages of the is growing faster than China - 2.0 percent a fertlity transition: each subregion has at least year - despite higher mortality. The population one country with a total fertility rate of 6 or of India is projected to surpass the 1 billion mark greater and one country with replacement-level in the year 2000 and to surpass China in total fertility. The projections of when replacement population by 2120. The PolPcy Research Working PaperoSerisdissemiinates thermdingsof work under way in therBank Anobjectiveof the series is to get these fmdings ou. quickly, even if presentations are less than fuUy polished. 'Me fmdings, interpretations. and conclusions in these papers do not nocessarily represent of ficial Bank policy. Produced by the Policy Research Disseniination Center East Asia and Pacific Region South Asia Region Population Projections 1992-93 Edition Eduard Bos MyT. Vu Ann Levin CONTENTS Forew ord ....................... . ld Pop on Projetons ............je. 1 Acknowledgements . v Worlkd Regions, and Income Groups ......... 1 Introduction ... v World .......................... 2 LlC .......................... 4 Ovrview of Trends and Projections ..... . MDC ............... ......... 6 World and Regions. vAi Population Growth .viii Geographic Regions FertiHty x.i Mortality ........................ xui Africa .8 Migration ........................ xlv East Africa .10 Age Structure .xv West Africa. .12 World Bank Regions and Income Groups .. xv North Africa .14 Some Country Results ..xxiii America .16 Summary Tables .xxv Latin America and the Caribbean ....... 18 Northern America .20 Spedal Topic I: Projecting AIDS Mortality .. Iv Epidemiological Model ................lv Asia .22 Simulations .....................m East and Southeast Asia .24 Application to Sub-Saharan Countries ..... hi South Asia .26 Conclusions ........................lxix Southwest Asia .28 References .x. Europe and Former Soviet Republics 30 Special Topic II: Demographic Trends in the Republics of the Former U.S.S.R . .......xi Oceania .32 References ............... .... bov Income Groups Data and Methods ................... lovi Sources of Population Data ....... li... bv Low-income Economies .34 Lower-middle-income Economies .36 References .,.................... xdv Upper-middle-income Economie .38 High-income economies .40 Addendum ................... xcv Nonreporting Nonmember Economies . 42 i East Asia and Pacific Region ......... 45 India ..................... 92 Indonesia ..................... 94 East Asia and Pacific .............. 46 Japan ..................... 96 Country Department I ............ 48 Kiribati ..................... 98 Country Department II ........... 50 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of ...... 100 Country Department III .......... 52 Korea, Rep. of ................. 102 Nonborrowers .................. 54 Lao ..................... 104 Asean ................... 56 Macao ..................... 106 Malaysia ..................... 08 South Asia Region ................. 59 Maldives ..................... 110 Micronesia, Fed. States of ......... 112 South Asia ................... 60 Mongolia ..................... 114 Country Department I ............ 62 Myanmar ..................... 116 Country Department II ........... 64 Nepal ..................... 118 Country Department III .......... 66 New Caledonia ................. 120 New Zealand .................. 122 Countries, Economies, Other Micronesia ............... 124 and Territories ................. 69 Other Polynesia ............ 126 Pakistan . . 128 Afghanistan ................. 70 Papua New Guinea ............ 130 Australia ................. 72 Philippines ............ 132 Bangladesh ................. 74 Singapore ............ 134 Bhutan ......... ........ 76 Solomon Islands ............ 136 Brunei ......... ........ 78 Sri Lanka ..... ....... 138 Cambodia .............. ... 80 Taiwan, China .......... .. 140 China (excluding Taiwan) .......... 82 Thailand ..... ....... 142 Fiji ................. 84 Tonga ............ 144 French Polynesia ................ 86 Vanuatu ..... ....... 146 Guam ........ ......... 88 Viet Nam ..... ....... 148 Hong Kong ................. 90 Western Samoa ............ 150 ii FOREWCRD Population projections for all countries are prepared annually by the Population and Human Resources Department of the World Bank. They are published first in summary form in the Bank's World Development Report and later in greater detail as technical notes or working papers and, in alternate years, as a book. Four separate working papers cover the six Bank regions: Africa (Sub-Saharan), Latin America and the Caribbean (and Northern America), East Asia and Pacific region and South Asia region combined, and Europe and Central Asia region and Middle East and North Africa region combined This year's projections contain two major changes from the previous edition. First, projected mortality from AIDS has been incorporated in the tables for Sub-Saharan African countries. Second, demographic estimates and projections are provided separately for each of the fifteen countries that constituted the Soviet Union. We intend these papers to provide convenient and up-to-date references on the likely demographic future of each country. We hope it will facilitate the process of taking population into account in development work. Thomas W. Merrick Senior Population Adviser Population and Human Resources Department isi ACKNOW LEDGEMENTS A number of persons provided us with important information for this work or assisted us in preparing it in other ways. The Estimates and Projections Section of the U.N. Population Division has been continually supportive in providing us with data, even before their publication as U.N. assessments. Partly as a result, nonessential differences between these projections and the biennial U.N. assessments have been minimized. We are grateful to the section chief, Larry Helichman, and to his continually accommodating staff, as well as to the head of the division, Shunichi Inoue, and hope that the collaboration will continue. World Bank country economists, population specialists, and the few demographers in the operating divisions have also provided us with recent population estimates, bringing to our attention government reporls we might not othenvise see. This exercise was carried out using a personal computer program, ProjPC-II, written by Kenneth Hill of Johns Hopkins University. This work for this paper was started as part of the Population, Health, and Nutrition Division's work program. The paper was completed as a product of the Population Policy and Advisory Service of the Population and Human Resources Department. We are grateful to the division chief, Dr. Anthony R. Measham, and the department director, Ann 0. Hamilton, for their support of this work. We also wish to acknowledge the interest of the Bank's International Economics Socioeconomic Data Division (IECSE), whicb not only utilizes our figures--for such important Bank purposes as estimpling per capita GNP-and incorporates them into the databases It maintains and publicat%.nis it distributes but also helps coordinate communications with country economists. Sulekha Patel and Taranjit Kaur of that division have been particularly helpful in the past year. v INMRODUCMION This paper provides population projections for each country, economy, or territory in !he World Bank East Asia and Pacific and South Asia Regions, as well as for nonborrower countries In the same geographic area. Three companion papers provide similar projections for the other Bank regions. Each paper also contains projections for the world and for groups of countries for all regions and income groups. The introduction sftiril (similar across the four regicnal papers) summarizes the main demographic trends and the projection results, discusses the projection methodology, and lists the sources of current population estimates and vital rates. These projections update those issued in 1991 as the 1990-91 Edition. This edition returns to the format of earlier editions, showing detailed age-sex distributions from 1985 onwards. This year's projections differ in two important ways from those issued previously. First, mortality from AIDS has been incorporated in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa where there is a measurable level of HIV infection, and has affected the projected population growth in these countries and for Africa as a whole. The procedures for projecting HIV and AIDS and a discussion of the impact of AIDS mortality on demographic indicators are presented as Special Topic I following the introduction. Second, as a result of recent political changes In some parts of the world, estimates and projections for several new countries have been added. These new projections cover the fifteen countries that constituted the Soviet Union (see Special Topic II below), the combined Germanies and Yemens, and the former Yugoslavian republics of Slovenia and Croatia. The cut-off date for revisions for this edition was April 15, 1992, so that political developments that occurred after that date could not be incorporated. TheAddendum section following the Sources discusses some of these late developments. Because of changes within the Vlorld Bank organizational structure, population projections of regional and country department aggregates are not comparable to those of previous years . New geographical regions have been formed and many of the country departments have changed their composition, partly as a result of the addition of many new borrower countries. For example, Asia has now been split into two separate regions, East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia, each of which has three country departments, rather than the five previous departments under one region. Country departments in the Africa and Latin America regions, while keeping the ssme name, have also been restructured. Projection methods have changed only marginally since the previous edition. Essentially, recent country-specific data about levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration are applied to available sex-age distributions in order to obtain short-run projections. Long-run projections, up to 2150, are made under the assumptions that fertility and mortality eventually become stable and net international migration declines to zero. One change in procedures from the previous edition involves a more gradual decline in the total fertility rate during the first period that fertility is projected to decline, followed by a more rapid decline than was previously assumed. This and other details of the methodology are described in the Data aiad Methods section. Caution is appropriate with all projections like these. They essentially involve working out the implications of assumptions about demographic trends. None of the results should be interpreted as indicating certitude about the future. Instead, they should be read with the universal qualifier that population will follow the indicated path if the assumptions prove to be correct. Viii INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW OF TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS In the following sections, recent demographic trends and projections for the future will be discussed. Overall trends for the world, geographical regions and countries grouped by income level will be reviewed first, foliowed by a presentation of sc. e notable country results. Rapid demographic changes are taking place in some parts of the world, while ir. other parts demographic change is more gradual. Over the past few decades, Southeast Asian and Latin American countries have experienced rapid declines in mortality and fertility, while most Sub-Saharan African and Middle Eastern countries have seen only minor changes, with both mortality and fertility remaining at high levels. The more developed countries of Europe, North America, and Asia are currently also among the gradual changers, having lowered their mortality and fertility earlier. In many of these countries, fertility fluctuates In a narrow range below replacement -- below the level required for each generation to replace itself in the succeeding generation -- and mortality at most ages has reached levels so low that further declines can only be small. The different regional trends, and their implications for future demographic indicators, will now be discussed in greater detail. World and Regions Population Growth The world population for mid-1992 is estimated to be 5.44 billion, an increase of 180 million over the population in mid-1990. By 2000, it is projected to increase to 6.17 billion, an increase of 12 percent over the 1992 estimate, and by 2025 world population is projected to reach 8.34 billion, an Increase of 52 percent over this year's population. During 1990 to 1995, population growth rates average 1.7 percent per year, and are projected to decline to 1.2 percent around 2010 and 1.0 percent by 2025. However, the number of persons added each year will still be growing between 1990 and 1995 and is projected to stabilize at just below 90 million. Only after 2025 is the annual increase in population projected to start declining substantially (Figure 1). This combin. ,n of declining growth rates with steady increases in population is the result of past high fertility rates, which produced ever- larger cohorts that are now moving through the age-structure, replacing smaller cohorts born earlier. Even though the number of births worldwide is increasing well below overall growth rates, the population momentum built into the age structure will ensure high population growth for decades to come. In 1992, less developed countries (LDCs) comprise 77 percent of the population, while more developed countries (MDCs) cover the other 23 percent. Since annual growth rates are significantly higher in LDCs, 2.0 percent compared to 0.6 percent for MDCs in 1992, the share of the world population from LDCs is projected to increase. By the beginning of the next century, it will increase to 79 percent, and will reach 83 percent by 2025. Long-run trends, up to 2150, are constructed by gradually bringing fertility and mortality in harmony, i.e., by setting fertility at a level where each woman replaces herself under projected mortality conditions, and by assuming net international migration to be zero. The result of these assumptions is that the population gradually becomes stationary, with a fixed age stracture that is independent of its current age structure and a growth rate of zero. The "ultimate size of such stationary populations is of interest because it demonstrates the momentum built into populations by current fertility and mortality conditions. The size of the stationary population of the world is projected as 12.2 billion, of which 88 percent would live in countries currently defined as less developed. INTRODUCTION IX Figure 1. Increase ir. Population Average annual increase (millions) By 5-year perlod By 25-year period 4; _ I 1990.95 20"4 2010415 2020 2WS07S 210025 Period Figure 2. Comparison of Projections 1990-91 Edition and 1992-93 Edition t_ = = = = MDC, 1990-91 MDC, 1992-93 LDC, 1990-91 LDC, 1992-93 0000 2 30e 2DOOt ~ ~ ~ A 2M0 244 NWf1 212 26 Year X INTRODUCTION How do the projections for the world and for LDCs and MDCs compare with those previously produced? Figure 2 compares this year's projections with the previous set (1990.91). For MDCs, there is no distinguishable difference between the projected populations. In the case of the LDCs projections, this year's projection is, from the early part of the 21st century onward, increasingly below the previous projection. This reflects the impact of AIDS, which increases the number of deaths and reduces the number of births. For the world as a whole, the projections differ tc the same extent as the LDC projecticns differ. When growth rates for major world regionis are compared, striking differences become apparent. The continent with the h., st growth rate is Africa with an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the early 1990s, about six times the 0.5 percent annual growth rate of Europe (which includes the former U.S.S.R. countries). Growth rates in the Americas, in Asia, and in Oceania are intermediate; at 1.5, 1.8, and 1.6 percent, respectively, they are close to the world's average. At these growth rates, the population of Africa would double in approximately 25 years, while Europe would double in 140 years. One of the consequences of such large differences in population growth rates is a ' hanging distribution of the population over the continents. Currently, Asia has 59 percent of all people; Europe, 15 percent; America, 14 percent, Africa, 12 percent, and Oceania, 1 percent. Over time, Asia's share is projected to remain fairly stable, but Europe's share will almost be halved and Africa's share more than doubled. Figure 3 shows the distribution of the world's population at three different points in time. Because Asia is so large and diverse, disaggregation of its populations by subregions is more illustrative of the differences in population growth rates. South Asia, which has 1.24 billion people (23 percent of the world population), has an estimated growth rate of 2.0 percent in 1992, while East and Southeast Asia, which include China and contains 1.85 billion people (34 percent of the world population), had a lower rate of 1.4 percent. South Asia is growing annually by 25 million, East and Southeast Asia by 27 million persons. By 2025, the growth rates are projected to decline to 1.1 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively. Even with these lower rates, 23 million people will be added in South Asia each year and 17 million in East and Southeast Asia because of their large projected base populations of 2.05 billion and 2.54 billion. Southwest Asia, which consists mostly of Middle Eastern countries, has a much smaller number of people, 143 million, but is growing at a faster rate than the other two regions, with a growth rate of 2.9 percent in 1992. It is projected to lower its growth rate to 1.6 percent by 2025, but will by then have more than doubled its population to 293 million. In Africa, more homogeneity is found among the East, West, and North subregions. The fastest growing subregion is East Africa with a growth rate of 3.0 percent in 1992, followed by West Africa with a growth rate of 2.9 percent. North Africa, has begun to lower its growth rate but still has a growth rate of 2.5 percent, which is projected to diminish to 1.3 percent by 2025. Even though East Africa's growth rate is projected to start declining immediately, by 2025 it will still have a growth rate of 1.9 percent, and will add 14 million persons a year. In West Africa, the growth rate is projected to decrease to 1.7 percent in 2025, but will still be adding 9 million persor% each year. These differences in growth rates are the outeme of assumed trends in fertility and mortality (discussed below). Oceania has a growth rate of 1.6 percent in 1992 and is projected to lower its rate to 0.6 percent by 2025. Because of its small population (0.5 percent of the world's total) its impact on world demographic trends is trivial. INTRODUCTION Xi Figure 3. Percentage Distribution of World Population by Continent, 1990, 2025, and 2100 1990 Oceanb ( ; i | j j~~~~~~~Afic mra (1ll9 Asia (S&9 2025 -jMA(IZn~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I7 2100 00cargo~~~~~~~~~~~Aaca(1 Aj.a (SEAa Asia(S X)i INTRODUCTION America is divided into two subregions, North America and Latin America and the Caribbean. In North America, the growth rate is relatively low, 0.9 percent in 1992, and is projected to decline to 0.3 percent by 2025, as net migration from Latin America Is assumed to diminish. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the growth rate in 1992 was significantly higher, 1.8 percent, and is projected to dec ine to 0.9 percc.zt by 2025. The lowest growth rate for any continent, .5 percent in 1992, is found in the region comprised of Europe and the former Soviet Republics. This rate is projected to decline further to .2 percent by 2025. Tables 1 and 2 summarize current and projected trends in population growth. Fertility The total fertility rate (TFR) for th.- world is estimated to be 3.2 children per woman in 1992. Thcz highest TFRs are found in East and West Africa, where the TFR is above 6. Most countries in the Asian and Latin American regioPm have moderate fertility of three to fiv- children per woman, although both continents contain countries with very high and very low levels. MDCs have the lowest fertility, with rates generally ranging between 2.5 and 1.5, but one of the former Soviet Republics, Tajikistan, has a TFR ot 5. World fertility is projected to dccline from 3.2 now to 2.9 by the turn of the century and to 2.4 by 2025. These projected trends in fertility are determined from past trends and general assumptions as described in Data and Methods. For countries with high fertility, the trend is assumed to be downward, and substantial fertility decline is projected. Countries that have reached below replacement level fertility are assumed to gradually raise their TFRs to replacement. In East and West Africa, recent trends in fertility are downwards, but only slightly so. Between 1985 and 1992, the TFR has declined from 6.4 to 6.2 in these regions that together constitute Sub-Saharan Africa. Only a few countries have shown sustained decline in fertility, while the majority of countries have had persisted high fertility, with the highest TFRs at levels above 7 children per woman in such countries as Malawi, Niger, Rwanda, and Uganda. In some countries (such as Cameroon and Angola), fertility has been increasing as sterility rates declined. On the basis of these levels and trends, fertility decline is projected to be slow in the 1990s as well, with replacement fertility in most countries not reached until after 2040. North Africa, on the other hand, has had a substantial decline in the past decade, from 5.6 to 4.6 children per woman, and four out of the seven countries in this region are projected to achieve replacement fertility by 2020. In Asia, most countries have begun the transition from high to low fertility, with many declines starting before and during the 1970s. In East and Southeast Asia, fertility has already reached a low level of 2.5 children per woman. South Asia, at 4.1 children per woman, has progressed less far in this process, and Southwest Asia has still further to go. However, each subregion of the Asian continent includes countries at different stages of the fertility transition; each subregion has at least one country with a TFR of 6 or greater and one c4W-:ntry with replacement level fertility. The projections of when replacement fertility will be reac!ied are determined by the trends in individual countries with the slowest decline; the Asian subregion aggregates wili therefore be late in achieving this. On the American continent, fertility in all countries has dropped to below 6 children per woman, but some countries have gone much further than others. The TFR for Latin America is intermediate at 3.1, and replacement fertility is projected to be reached in every country no later than INTRODUCTION Xii 2035. In Northern America, fertility is at 2 children per woman, I.e., just below replacement level. Europe (including the former U.S.S.R. republics) is the only continent where aggregate fertility is currently below replacement, i.e., where women are not having enough children to replace themselves. Recent trends in some countries of Europe show small increases in fertility, and the projections assume that the TFR will recover to replacement level by 2030. Europe is also the continent with the most hon. geneous fertility levels: with the exception of four of the former Soviet republics that have TFRs above 3, fertility In the other 41 countries varies in a narrow range between 1.5 and 2.8. Another measure sometimes used to examine fertility trends is the crude birth rate, a rate that is not adjusted for the age structure of the population. The 1992 crude birth rate for the world as a whole is 25.7 births per thousand population and is projected to decline to 22.2 by the turn of the century, and decline further to 17.8 by 2025. In MDCs, the 1992 crude birth rate is 14.3 while the rate in LDCS is 29.0. Crude birth rates are projected to decrease to 18.6 in LDCs and to 12.2 in MDCs by 2025. MortaUlity Mortality levels in all continents have decreased in the past decade, continuing a long-term trend towards longer life. Life expectancy at birth, a measure constructed from current age-specific mortality rates applied to a cohort born this year, is estinmted at 66 years for the world in 1992, with male levels at 64.5 years and female levels at 67.0 years. Life expectancy is 12 years lower in LDCs than in MDCs. Projected mortality trends for individual countries are based on current levels and recent trends, with faster increases in life expectancy projected in countries with lower life expectancies and those with rapid recent increases (see Data and Methods). Life expectancy is projected to reach 70 years for the world as a whole in approximately 2010. However, differences between regions are expected to remain important, and even increase in some cases. Sub-Saharan Africa is only projected to reach a life expectancy of 60 years by 2020, ard South Asia is not projected to reach 70 years until approximately 2025. On the other hand, more developed regions, are projected to attain life expectancies of 80 years around 2015. On the African continent, the lowest regional life expectancies are found in East and West Africa where combined (male and female) life expectancy at birth is only 52 and 50 years, respectively. Since the 1970s, life expectancy in East and West Africa has increased by about 6 years. Further increases are expected because of continued progress in socioeconomic development and health interventions; however, in East Africa especially, overall life expectancy will increase only gradually because of increasing mortality from AIDS. In some countries where the HIV/AIDS epidemic has spread widely, such as Uganda, Malawi, and Zambia, projections indicate a reversal of recent gains in life expectancy (see Special Topic I). North Africa has considerably better mortality conditions, with combined life expectancy of just over 60. South Asia has the worst mortality conditions of the Asian subregions, but improvement has been quite rapid since the mid 1970s, with life expectancy increasing from 49 to 59 years currently. Life expectancy in Southwest Asia is near the world's average, while East and Southeast Asia is well- above that at 70 years. East and Southeast Asia contains some of the countries (Japan, Hong Kong) with the highest measured life expectancies in the world. The American continent contains the Northern America region which has the highest aggregate life expectancy, 76.7. In Latin America and the Caribbean, life expectancy is slightly above the world's average. XIV INTRODUCTION The European region has the second highest aggregate life expectancy, 74.4. Every country in this region is above the world's average. Moving from west to east through this regiop., L;fe expectancies tend to decline, from a high of 78 in Iceland to a low of 66 in Turkmenistan. Female life expectancy at birth is higher than male life expectancy at birth in all regions in the world, with the exception of the South Asia region, where males and females have the same life expectancy. In some countries in South Asia, such as Nepal and Bhutan, males have higher life expectancies. The largest gaps between males and females are found in some of the former Soviet republics, where females have an advantage of over 10 years (see Special Topic 11). The variations in the sex difference in 1fe expectancy can often be explained by different life styles, health conditions, and cultural practices. In South Asia, for example, preferential treatment of boys and high maternal mortality rates are important reasons for reduced female life expectancy, whereas alcohol abuse and smoking reduces male life expectancy in parts of Europe. Other indicators of mortality included in the detailed country projections are the infant mortality rate (IMR), the under-five mortality rate (q3), life expectancy at age 15, and the crude death rate (CDR). ihe first three are strongly correlated with life expectancy at birth; the CDR is affected by the age structure of a population and is therefore a much poorer indicator of mortality conditions. Table 3 summarizes vital rates for geographic regions for the current and two future periods. Migradon At the regional level, international net migration has a trivial effect on population growth. The most significant flow occurs between Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern America, which amounts to just over one-half million persons per year. Migration often occurs for unpredictable reasons, and is often reversed in a short time period; the projections of future net migration assume a gradual decline to zero from current levels. Age Stnrcture The age structure of a population gives information about the size of the school-age population, labor force size, and age-dependency, among others. It is also a very powerful indicator of future population growth potential. The percentage of the world's population under the age of fifteen is estimated to be 32 percent in 1992, or approximately one in three persons. This proportion is projected to decrease slightly to 31 percent by the turn of the century, and to decline further to 25 percent in 2025 as fertility rates decrease. The trend for the proportion of persons sixty-five years of age or older, on the other hand, is rising in all regions of the world as the result of lower fertility and lower mortality rates at older ages. This proportion is estimated to be 6 percent in 1992, and will increase to 7 percent by the year 2000, and to 10 percent by 2025. The distribution of persons by age is very different in LDCs and MDCs. In LDCs, 36 percent of the population is under the age of 15, whereas this is only 22 percent in MDCs. By 2025, however, these differences are projected to become smaller as fertility in LDCs is reduced further. At that time, the percentage of the population under the age of 15 is estimated to decline to 27 percent in LDCs and to 18 percent in MDCs. The proportion of persons aged 65 and over, on the other hand, will be rising, particularly in MDCs. The percentage of this age-group in 1992 in MDCs is estimated to he 12 percent, is INTRODUCTION XV rrojected to rise to 14 percent by the year 2000, and rise to 20 percent by 2025. In LDCs, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over is only 4 percent in 1992, 5 percent in 2000, and 8 percent in 2025. The under age 15 and 65 years and over population as a ratio of those in the working ages between 15 and 65 years is called the dependency ratio. This measure Indicates how many persons, on average, are dependent per 100 persons of working age. Table 4 shows these three broad age groups for the regions of the world. The dependency ratio is currently highest in Africa, at 92, and lowest in Europe, at 52. Over time, however, dependency in Africa will decrease as fertility declines, whereas it will increase in Europe as the population grows older. World Bank Regions and Income Groups The World Bank divides borrower countries into six regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and Pacific, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Within regions, countries are grouped in two to six countly departments. In addition, the Bank also assigns each country to one of four income groups. Box 1 shows the countries grouped by income, Box 2, by country departmcnt. This section will discuss the population growth, fertility and mortality rates of Bank regions, country departments, and income groups. The largest region is East Asia and Pacific which currently has 30 pen .t of the world's population. It is followed by South Asia with 21 percent, Africa with 10 percent, Europe and Central Asia with 9 percent, Latin America and the Caribbean with 8 percent, and Middle East and North Africa with 5 percent. Table 6 shows projections for the six regions and their departments. Figure 5 shows population growth rates for all Bank departments. As the Bank regions resemble geographic regions or subregions, the discussion will focus on Bank departments. The growth rates of the country departments reflect those of the regions as a whole, but there is some variation. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the rates range from 3.2 percent to 2.8 percent, with the highest rates found in the Eastern African department and the lowest rates found in the Sahelian and Southern African departments. Another region that has similarly high growth rates is the Middle East and North Africa. The growth rate is higher in the Country Department II, 3.0 percent, which includes the Middle Eastern countries, than the Country Department I, of North African countries, 2.7 percent, where the fertility transition is further along. More diversity is found among the Asian country departments. In South Asia, the growth rates for the three departments range from 2.0 percent to 2.6 percent. The growth rates of the three East Asian and Pacific Country Departments are lower and range from 1.9 percent to 1.4 percent. Latin America and the Caribbean region is similar to the East Asian and Pacific region in that growth rates are moderately high with a range from 2.1 percent to 1.4 percent, with the highest rates found in Country Departments I and II. The European and Central Asian country departments include Eastern European, Baltic countries, CI.S. countries, and a few Asian countries and have the lowest growth rates of any of the regions. Country Department I, which includes some Central Asian countries and some Eastern European countries, has a growth rate of 1.3 pericnt, and the other two departments made up of Eastern European and former Soviet republics have rates of only .4 percent and .8 percent. XVi INTRODUCliON Figure 4. World Bank Regions IBRD 24229 03) SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WORLD BANK REGIONS ©2) LAC (Including North America) ©73 SOUTH ASIA I EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC (5) EUROPE and CENTRAL ASIA (@4) NORTH AFRICA and MIDDLE EAST ocros. 199 INTRODUCTION XVii Figure S. Population Growth Rate, 1990-95, by Country Department 3 2.5 Figure 6. Total Fertility Rate, 1990-95, by Counfty Department a X 2- ' 0 Fgur 6.TtlFriiyRt,19-5 yCutyDprmn 8o S 1L.AL2 XVIII INTRODUCTION Box I Countrkes and Fxonomkes Class&fld by Income Group L m . . ... . . ...1 . . r L e. ~~at Af~~~1~~ .... . . t Afria ...... South Ai .Coworas .. l~~~~~Urkn Faso: Bangladesh -.... . ....... ..... .... .. .. A fia e .R utan LaOmh Eator iat Guinea': ~li~~ i(adugaocar Oad,ta~~~~~ The. i Gune Sri-Lanka . . . l.. ......a g ait and Southeast Asia Tanuafti* NI Cambodia tjad NariaiaIdonesiam Zaire ~~~~~~Nigel. La"Ool1sDe.Rp.- igeria *Yaner Gao" Tone wid Prrincipe Vi.Ot "iae Egypt ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ocea nia Latin Ametifcaand the Caribbea GUff Leaer.161. iuce (*14399) East AfricaLatin Amerca and theCaribbean outhtwift Asia RtwanR. A;rgenti IzaStp Plibouti 5~~~~~~~~~~~ Jordan Bai bChl Syian Aeab Rep. Swaziland C~~~~oatltsa ure gent Africa Daninic~Man Rep. Cap. Veldt Gtenado l~~~~~~~ongotfI Cono, epe' Rep. of th Aaeul lipfpines. Cote d'rvoire Janaica ~~~~~~~~~~~~Thaii Lond Pean Oceania. Nort Afr"ia -PaguFiji Algeria .. . Pe~~ru Kciribati Morocco ..:.. .:.K .. . : St.Lucia -other Mi1croneasi Tt*'i*ia G~~~~t. Vicat and the Grenadfnes Piiap NeW Wuinea Other orth fia Atb6fiia--. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ nut Oit~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Ietr ap Albania~~~....... INTRODUCTION XiX (based on GNP per capita in 1990 U.S. dolars) Antgue mn flarbd r Seychel~ ~ ~~~~~~~n tea rbdo heat Afr -A M:C.arbtini Amque t Nei$te Eas dn NOVh.stsi _ the uetAilaOr tatnAmrc laa . . ... ... K . an N~i North Africa ~~~~~~~~~~~~~urin~~~Ame ....m... Libya ~~~~~~~~~Trinida ftandM RagopNconua aoIf.. UP~~~~~Uuga o ~~w41pe 6.::; K.. Venezuela~~~~~... .... Other*yai Aot a .. . .. . .. . .. . othr Northern, ...... Atmttta ~~~~~~~~~~~~~Unfte ..d :State.'at i'fcf ....... ..... VIVOin Islands ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~U.S . Ow........... .t a. . .. . . . .. ... ... ... . .. . . . . .r.. . Mether~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ands ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ X---- I*~~~ItW4 K1*19d~~~~:K K Ra~~~rq~~~art4vi g~~~~~~oeimati~~~~~~r ~~~ew~~fes (iWO) ~~~~X Europe Latin...erica1Wnd t.. ..r.bbe.. Fu1~~~~~~~~~~t EvIet iie~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ion Ct**~~~......... . .. . atanX oteatAl XX INTRODUCTiON Box 2 Countries and Economies Classified mX_w. F)atYAfrc taim ^ ................ ... .... .. . h 5.4 Occle*nt *i ~et~& Af*~ t$ter AficaOepattnrit(AFt): Wester Aric VptI.IA4~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.'.-'........ '- '.-.,='.,' .. -.. .:'; .epartmnt (A9p ra , .. t..ara, , fr t ,-, . = r roij iWtiu Lib--.e::i-a Cot. d'~~~~wire Uganveda irr en Eq ataria1 tlme.t apVrdwe e Angot8 . ~~~~ot Iaurim ith'. .SuhAr band fie~~tt&1Ior him- m t~r Eas Africa' 7 BrazIl 3~~~. .1 ... Argnt Inm .. ........ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ cit Vane*uela Cotoe*,i.a acuad~~~~~~~~~oe . DOIIMC * Pllagu CO~iit*T ~epttmnt U bi~i-Ah e rga Wontar :at Gudt AW Panama St. Luela ~~~~it cW Antil"le- 5*4 VINWII and~. ....OM Country ~e'tIuent 13$ *uri~w Other Northern Amer-c" An'tigu. an4 IertUde rrtnidad and Tobago Puerto If~~~~................. z 0 0 I 9*  -- A 10. 49 I - L o 2 QL II" I I S I: I I ) a iaI!cI.  ... L.... hi 8 I I urg  t S . 42 8 I I i I 3 U; I 4t±! * w. @0  I 31  jm I XXiI INTRODUCTION Figure 6 compares TFRs for all country departments. For the Africa region, there is more variation in fertility among the departments than for population growth: TFRs range from 5.6 in the Southern Africa Department (AF6) to 6.9 in the Eastern Africa Department (AF2). In botl the Middle East and North Africa and South Asia regions, the fertility rates are medium high -- at 5.5 to 3.7, they are below those of the Africa departments, but above those of all other departments. The departments in the East Asia and Pacific and Latin America and Caribbean regions have fertility rates that are medium-low: at 3.4 to 2.4 children per woman, they are less than 1.5 to 0.5 children above replacement fertility. Replacement fertility in most countries that constitute these departments is projected to be achieved in the next 10 to 20 years. The Europe and Central Asia departments are very close to replacement fertility, and some countries in this region have dipped below net reproduction rates of 1, which, if sustained, would lead to declining populations in the long run. Figure 7 compares life expectancies at birth across country departments, and presents an almost reversed ordering of the departments in Figure 6. For the departments of Sub-Saharan Africa, the combined male-female life expectancies are in just above 50 years, the exception being Sahelian Africa (AF5) with a life expectancy of 48 years. In South Asia, the life expectancies are slightly higher, ranging from 52 to 60 years. In the North Africa and Middle East, East Asia and Pacific, and Latin America and Caribbean departments, the life expectancies are all in the 60-70 years range. Four departments have life expectancies just above 70 years, two of which are in Europe and Central Asia (EC2 and EC3), one in Latin America and the Caribbean (LA4), and one in East Asia and Pacific (EA2). The income groups, of which there are four, are less distinct demographically than the regional grouping. The low-income group (per capita income in 1990 of $610 or less), contains 50 countries that are mostly from Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, with a few countries from Latin America. hlese countries comprise 58 percent of the world population and have the highest fertility and mortality rates. They include some of the largest countries such as China and India. The 57 lower-middle income countries (per capita income between $611 and $2400) have 11 percent of the world population, and include many countries from Latin America, some from all of the other developing areas, as well as some Eastern European countries. The upper-middle income countries (per capita income between $2400 and $7650) have only have 10 percent of the world population. Most of the 33 countries that make up this group are from Eastern European and Middle Eastern oil-producing countries. Population growth rates and fertility vary widely within this group, but life expectancies are considerably higher than for the lower-middle and lower income groups. The 42 high income countries have per capita income greater than $7650, and have 16 percent of the world's population. They are chiefly the more developed countries from North America and Europe and have the lowest fertility and mortality rates, with the exception of Kuwait which has a TFR of 3.4 children per woman. The difference in population growth between the low- and middle- income groups is not as large as may be expected. The reason for this is the inclusion of China and India, which both have moderate growth rates, in the low income group. As the overall growth rate is an average of country growth rates weighted by population size, China and India depress the low-income growth rate. Without China and India, the low income countries would have the highest growth rate (2.5 percent per year). Projections for these income groups do not take into account that some countries are likely to move from one income group to another over time. INTRODUCTION XXiii Some Country Results Individual country projections provide sharper contrasts than aggregate geographic, Bank region, or income group projections, which, by combining several countries, smooth unique patterns. In this section, results will be discussed for a few large countries, because of their importance in determining the world's demographic situation, and for several smaller countries with striking demographic features. The most populous country in the world is China with a population of 1.2 billion. Its population growth rate, 1.5 percent in the early 1990s, is low for a low-income country, and is due to the low level of fertility that has been achieved over the last two decades. From 1970 to 1985, the TFR declined from 5.8 to 2.5, where it has stalled in the past few years. At the same time, life expectancy increased from 61 to 70 years, well-above the current average of 59 years for other low- income countries. Because of Its sizeable lead in population over the second largest country, and because of the momentum built into the age structure, China is projected the remain the most populous country until 2120. India, the second most populous country, has an estimated population of 883 million in 1992. Because of its higher TFR, it Is growing faster than China -- 2.0 percent per year -- despite higher mortality. The population of India is projected to surpass the 1 billion mark in the year 2000, and to surpass China in total population by 2120. The United States is, following the breakup of the U.S.S.R., the third most populous country. Its demographic characteristics are those of a typical MDC, with below-replacement fertility, high life expectancy, and an age pyramid that appears increasingly rectangular. The U.S. is atypical in that its growth rate is relatively high as the result of net migration: 25 percent of the United States' annual growth of 0.9 percent is due to immigration. In absolute numbers, the U.S. is by far the largest recipient of immigrants, with an annual immigration surplus of about 600,000 during the early 1990s. All of the regions have positive growth rates, but a few countries are in fact losing people. These countries are in one of two regions: in Latin America nk e Caribbean, where several small island countries (Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis) have recently had negative growth rates, and in Europe (Bulgaria, Hungary, and Ireland). In the case of the Caribbean islands, the cause of population decline is outmigration, whereas in Eastern Europe it results from a combination of below replacement fertility and outmigration. By 2025, a dozen countries in the MDC group are projected to have declining populations, including several large countries (Japan, Germany, and Italy). Even though fertility is assumed to recover to replacement by 2030, the effect of "negative momentum' built into the age structures of these countries is to maintain negative growth rates for several decades. The highest growth rates are found in countries which have a large number of immigrants relative to their existing populations. The highest annual growth rates in the early 1990s are for Israel (4.8 percent), Jordan (4.8 percent), Oman (4.0 percent) and Saudi Arabia (3.7 percent). However, some other countries attain comparable growth rates through the excess of births over deaths without immigration: Rwanda (3.9 percent), Kenya (3.5 percent) and Swaziland (3.5 percent). The lowest TFR in the early 1990s is in Italy (1.32 children per woman). Several other Mediterranean countries are similarly low: Spain (1.46), Greece (1.52), and Portugal (1.57). While these countries once lagged the rest of Europe in the fertility transition, they have continued fertility decline to below levels observed in the countries of Northern and Western Europe, some of which (Sweden, Denmark) have had recent slight increases in their TFR. XXIV INTRODUCTION Six African countries and one country in Asia have I1 of7 chldren or mo per woman. The highest is Rwanda (8.3), followed by Yemen (7.7), Mulawi (7.6), ad Etiopia (7.5). Countries with such high fertfli# are expected to eventually follow the patten of comntils such a Keoy and Zimbabwe, which previously had very high fertility and hae started t naltlon *om high to low fertility in the 1980s. But some countries with medium-high and hih fniUly (Moxambique, Tanzania, Niger, among others) are experiencing increes in the TFR a a reult of decinig prevalence of some sexually transmitted diseases (SlDs). SDs ause sonduy ertilty, wbh depresses the number of children born to women. Life expectancy is highest in Japan (79 years, averae of male and febae le efpectancles). This is just more than twice the life expectancy of Ouinea-Bissau, wch, with 39 yesu has the lowest life expectancy of all countries in the world. Age-specific mortality rates, the mponent from whim life expectancy is constructed, show even greater disparities: an infat In Japan ha a dca of S per 1000 of dying in its first year, whereas this is 30 times higher in OGuin B iu. In seal Sub- Saharan countries, the probability that a child will not live to ape 5 X one In four, in the countries with the best mortality conditions, this is only one in 150 childr The following set of tables provides additional det of curnt estimates ad projectns of population growth and vital rates. Tables 1 to 5 show demographic Iadto o te World, ls developed and more developed regions, and geographic regions Tbles 6 to 9slow Indiators for the Bank's regions and country departments. Tables 10 to 15 show sumwaty demogrphic indiato extracted from the main tables to facilitate comparions amowng counuL Te 16 shows the populations of small countries that constitute the "other grouping INTRODUCTIN XXV Table 1. Population and Percentage Dlsnibution ly Geographic Re'on, 1985-2100 Population (mililons) Perentoge of world population Region 1985. 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 World 4827 5268 6168 8345 10055 11652 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Less Developed (a) 3650 4053 4886 6944 8623 10200 75.6 76.9 79.2 83.2 85.8 87.5 More Developed (a) 1177 1214 1282 1401 1433 1452 24.4 23.1 20.8 16.8 14.2 12.5 Africa 542 627 831 1467 2079 2784 11.2 11.9 13.5 17.6 20.7 23.9 East Africa 233 272 367 6e4 1006 1399 4.8 5.2 6.0 8.2 10.0 12.0 inet Africa!, 185 215 287 515 730 978 3.6 4.1 4.7 6.2 7.3 8.4 North Africf 124 140 177 268 343 408 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.5 Americ 667 721 830 1061 1201 1285 13.6 13.7 13.5 12.7 11.9 11.0 Latin Amerlc and Carfb. 399 441 524 709 839 916 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.3 7.9 Northern America 268 280 306 352 362 369 S.6 5.3 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.2 Asia 2823 3103 3650 4885 5811 6596 58.5 56.9 59.2 58.5 57.8 56.6 East and Southeast Asiea 1653 1788 2044 2546 2840 3013 34.2 33.9 33.1 30.5 28.2 25.9 South Asia 1055 1182 1432 2046 2570 3076 21.9 22.4 23.2 24.5 25.6 26.4 Southwest Asia 115 133 174 293 401 507 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.4 Europe and former U.S.S.R. 770 790 825 894 922 941 15.9 15.0 13.4 10.7 9.2 8.1 Oceania 25 27 31 39 43 45 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 a. "More developed comprises Europe, the former U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States nd Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Lees developed" comprises the rest of the world. iauble 2. Annual Population Increase and Growth Rate by Geographic Region, 1985-2100 Annual population Increase (millions) Annual growth rate (percent) 1985-90 1990-95 2000-05 2025-50 2050-75 2075-2100 1985-90 1990-95 2000-05 2025-50 2050-75 2075-2100 World 88.2 90.6 88.8 68.4 41.5 22.4 1.75 1.65 1.39 0.75 0.39 0.20 Less Developed (a) 80.6 83.6 82.7 67.1 41.3 21.8 2.10 1.96 1.62 0.87 0.45 0.22 More Developed (a) 7.4 7.0 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.62 0.57 0.47 0.09 0.01 0.04 Afrira 17.0 19.3 23.5 24.5 18.4 9.8 2.93 2.87 2.64 1.39 0.80 0.37 East Afrfca 7.8 8.9 11.2 12.9 10.2 5.6 3.09 3.04 2.83 1.55 0.90 0.42 West Afrfca 6.0 6.7 8.5 8.6 6.9 3.4 2.95 2.91 2.77 1.39 0.80 0.37 North Africa 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.0 1.8 0.8 2.53 2.45 2.02 0.99 0.49 0.20 Ameriea 10.7 11.2 9.9 5.6 2.4 1.0 1.54 1.49 1.16 0.49 0.19 0.08 Latin America and Carfb. 8.3 8.5 7.7 5.2 2.2 0.9 1.97 1.64 1.42 0.67 0.25 0.10 Northern America 2.4 2.7 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.89 0.94 0.70 0.12 0.04 0.03 Asia 56.0 56.0 51.7 37.1 20.3 11.1 1.89 1.73 1.37 0.69 0.33 0.17 East and Southeast Asia 27.0 26.8 22.1 11.8 4.4 2.5 1.57 1.44 1.05 0.44 0.15 0.08 South Asia 25.4 25.2 25.1 21.0 13.0 7.3 2.27 2.02 1.68 0.91 0.47 0.24 Southwest Asia 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.3 2.9 1.3 2.78 2.67 2.41 1.26 0.67 0.27 Europe and former U.S.S.R. 4.1 3.6 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.53 0.45 0.41 0.12 0.03 0.05 Oceanfa 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.64 1.57 1.19 0.39 0.14 0.08 a. "More developed coRprises Europe, the former U.S.S.R., Northern America (the Unfted States nd Canada), Australia, New 2ealand, and Japan. "Less developed" corprises the rest of the world. Table 3. Feniy and Monaliuy Ratw by Geogpyhic Region, 1990-95, 2()-05, and 2025-30 1990-95 2000-05 2025-30 Region CBR TFR CDR eCO) I* CBR TFR CDR e(O) i1R CBR TFR CDR etO) INR World 25.7 3.23 9.2 66.0 63 22.2 2.87 8.2 68.5 50 17.2 2.36 7.7 74.0 24 LesS Developed (a) 29.0 3.59 9.2 63.2 70 24.5 3.07 8.1 66.1 56 18.2 2.41 7.3 72.5 27 More Developed (a) 14.3 1.95 9.1 75.5 12 13.2 1.96 8.8 77.8 9 12.2 2.06 10.0 81.6 4 Africa 42.5 5.a5 13.8 53.6 98 38.3 5.11 11.9 56.0 80 25.2 2.97 7.9 64.0 50 East Africa 4s.2 6.30 14.8 52.3 104 41.4 5.70 13.1 53.7 87 27.5 3.27 8.3 62.2 55 West Africa 44.4 6.16 15.2 50.5 104 40.5 5.38 12.8 53.6 83 25.5 2.92 8.3 62.2 53 North Africa 34.3 4.55 9.6 60.8 70 28.0 3.54 7.8 64.6 5 18 .8 2.31 6.4 72.1 22 America 21.9 2.70 7.3 71.6 36 17.8 2.29 6.5 74.2 25 14.2 2.08 7.3 79.1 7 Latin America and Carib. 26.0 3.12 6.6 68.4 46 20.4 2.42 s.8 71.6 32 15.1 2.09 6.4 77.5 8 Northern America 1S.4 1.99 8.3 76.7 9 13.4 2.01 7.9 78.8 7 12.3 2.06 9.1 82.3 3 Asia 25.9 3.16 8.5 65.1 63 21.3 2.69 7.5 68.2 48 16.4 2.25 7.4 74.7 18 East and Southeast Asia 21.6 2.49 7.0 69.5 34 17.3 2.18 6.7 72.2 23 14.1 2.09 7.6 78.0 8 South Asia 31.1 4.13 10.7 58.7 93 25.8 3.26 8.9 62.5 71 18.5 2.37 7.4 70.8 28 Southwest Asia 3s.4 4.75 7.9 65.3 62 30.4 4.01 6.3 68.8 46 20.8 2.60 5.3 74.9 19 Europe and former U.S.S.R. 14.4 1.99 9.8 74.4 15 13.4 1.98 9.3 76.9 11 12.4 2.06 10.0 81.0 4 oceania 19.3 2.45 7.8 72.9 24 17.1 2.31 7.4 74.9 16 13.9 2.10 8.1 79.1 12 Note: Crude birth rates (CUR) and crude death rates (CDR) are per 1,000 population; total fertility rates (TFR) are per woren 15-49 years of age; life ewpectancies at birth, eCO), is given in years; and infant mortality rates (INR) are per 1,000 live births. INTRODUCTION XXViI Table 4. Population (millions) Age 0.14, 15J64, and 65 and over by Geographic Region Year and Less More Europe, Oceania Age group World developed developed Africa America Asia former USSR X990 0-14 1708 1446 261 282 2i9 1026 173 7 15-64 3231 2427 804 326 448 1922 519 17 65. 329 180 149 19 54 155 98 2 2000 0-14 1913 1653 260 365 232 1139 170 8 15-64 3830 2989 841 441 533 2299 537 20 65+ 425 243 182 25 65 212 119 3 2025 0-14 2097 1841 256 516 230 1176 166 8 15-64 5405 4546 859 894 692 3243 551 25 65+ 8a4 557 287 56 139 466 177 6 Note: "More developed comprises Europe, the former U.S.S.R., Northern Amerfea (the United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Lass developed" comprises the rest of the world. Table S. Long-iun and Statdonary Population, Momentm, Doubling Year, and Year when Net Reproduction reached I by Geographic Region Population (millions) Stationary Year population when over popula- statlo- 1990 Population tion 1990 2050 2100 nary population momentum doubles NRR=1 World 5268 10055 11652 12186 2.3 1.4 2059 2060 Less Developed (a) 4053 8623 10200 10715 2.6 1.5 2040 2060 More Developed (a) 1214 1433 1452 1471 1.2 1.1 (b) 2030 Africa 627 2079 2784 3028 4.8 1.5 2017 2055 East Africa 272 1006 1399 1498 5.5 1.5 2015 2055 West Africa 215 730 978 1105 5.1 1.5 2016 2055 North Africa 140 343 408 425 3.0 1.6 2029 2050 America 721 1201 1285 1311 1.8 1.4 Cb) 2035 Latin America and Carib. 441 839 916 938 2.1 1.5 2067 2035 Northern Ameriea 280 362 369 373 1.3 1.1 (b) 2C:O Asia 3103 5811 6596 6846 2.2 1.4 2068 2060 East and Southeast Asia 1788 2840 3013 3086 1.7 1.4 (b) 2040 South Asia 1182 2570 3076 3232 2.7 1.5 2040 2060 Southwest Asia 133 401 507 528 4.0 1.6 2019 2055 Europe nd former U.S.S.R. 790 922 941 955 1.2 1.1 (b) 2030 Oceanie 27 43 45 46 1.7 1.3 (b) 2035 a. "More developed comprises Europe, the former U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, Now Zooalnd, and Japan. "Less developed" comprises the rest of the world. b. Population will not double with projected rates. XXVii INrRODUCTION Table 6. Population and Percentage Dvtributdon by World Bank Regfon, Country Departnment, and Income Group, 1985-2100 Population CmIllions) Percentage of world population Region and Country Department 1985 1990 2000 Z025 2050 2100 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 Africa Region 440 512 687 1254 1810 2472 9.1 9.7 11.1 15.0 18.0 21.2 1 Occidental and Central 38 45 60 110 156 208 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2 Eastern 107 126 173 340 515 733 2.2 2.4 2.8 4.1 5.1' 6.3 3 South-Central and IndIan Ocean 62 73 98 181 260 356 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.1 4 Western 103 119 158 268 362 465 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.6 4.0 5 Sahelfan 36 41 56 111 171 248 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 6 Southern 94 108 142 244 344 461 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.0 East Asia and Pacific Regfon 1488 1619 1868 2366 2669 2847 30.8 30.7 30.3 28.3 26.5 24.4 1 Southeast 270 299 356 480 567 622 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.3 2 China and Mongolia 1050 1136 1296 1601 1769 1860 21.8 21.6 21.0 19.2 17.6 16.0 3 IndonesIa and Pacffic 168 184 216 285 333 364 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 South Asia Region 1009 1126 1353 1879 2281 2616 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.5 22.7 22.4 1 Other South 113 127 154 215 261 302 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2 indfa 765 850 1006 1348 1599 1790 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.1 15.9 15.4 3 Southwc.t 130 150 193 316 421 523 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.8 4.2 4.5 Middle East and Worth Africa Region 207 240 319 567 834 1144 4.3 4.6 5.2 6.8 8.3 9.8 1 North Africa 55 63 82 127 165 195 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 2 Middle East 152 177 238 440 669 948 3.1 3.4 3.9 5.3 6.7 8.1 Europe and Central Asia Region 453 473 510 596 654 694 9.4 9.0 8.3 7.1 6.5 6.0 1 Southern Europe 93 99 112 138 157 168 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 2 Other Europe 83 85 88 97 102 107 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 3 C.I.S. and Baltic Republics 278 289 310 361 395 419 5.8 5.5 5.0 4.3 3.9 3.6 LAC Region 388 429 511 694 823 900 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.2 7.7 1 Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela 172 192 229 308 360 391 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 2 Central America 104 115 140 199 242 267 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 3 Caribbean and other 54 59 70 94 112 124 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 4 Temperate 58 63 72 94 109 118 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 Income group Low 2743 3039 3642 S107 6268 7358 56.8 57.7 59.1 61.2 62.3 63.2 Lower-middle 520 576 695 999 1249 1462 10.8 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.4 12.5 Upper-middle 454 503 607 890 1155 1432 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.7 11.5 12.3 High 796 822 869 936 930 921 16.5 15.6 14.1 11.2 9.3 7.9 Nonreporting nonmewmber 314 328 354 414 452 479 6.5 6.2 5.7 5.0 4.5 4.1 Note: Country Department names are suggestive of countries included, but not always exact. World Bank regions and country departments are defined in Box 2. Income groups are defined in Box 1. INTRODUCTION xxix Tabe 7. Annuar Ppuam m = ad Growth Rate by World Bank Region, Country Department; and Inc Gve % 1985.2100 Populatfon (millions) Average amnuaL growth rate legfon *nd 195- 1990- 2000- 2025- 2050- 2075- 1985- 1990- 2000- 2025- 2050- 2075- Country Ddpartmnt 1990 1995 2005 2050 2075 2100 1990 1995 2005 2050 2075 2100 Afrfea legfon 14.3 16.5 20.6 22.2 17.2 9.3 3.02 2.98 2.79 1.47 0.85 0.39 1 Occidental od Centrol 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.7 3.23 3.06 2.87 1.39 0.81 0.34 Elstern 3.7 .4 5.7 7.0 5.6 3.1 3.16 3.20 3.05 1.67 0.96 0.45 3 South-Contrtl wd Indian oean 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.2 2.5 1.4 3.12 3.09 2.84 1.46 0.86 0.40 6 Western 3.2 3.7 5.4 3.8 2.7 1.4 2.93 2.88 2.60 1.21 0.69 0.31 5 Sahwlitn 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.4 1.9 1.1 2.79 2.88 3.07 1.75 1.00 0.49 6 Southern 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.0 3,1 1.6 2.88 2.77 2.52 1.37 0.81 0.36 East Asia Nnd Peffie "egion 26.1 26.0 21.5 12.1 4.7 2.4 1.70 1.56 1.13 0.48 0.17 0.09 1 Southest 5.7 5.8 5.3 3.5 1.5 0.7 2.06 1.89 1.47 0.67 0.26 0.11 2 China nd oagella 17.2 16.9 13.3 6.7 2.3 1.3 1.57 1.44 1.00 0.40 0.13 0.07 3 Indonsis wd Pacific, 3.2 3.3 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.4 1.80 1.70 1.32 0.62 0.24 0.12 Swath Asio Regon 23.5 23.0 22.5 16.1 8.8 4.6 2.21 1.95 1.59 0.77 0.37 0.18 2 Other South 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.6 2.26 2.05 1.69 0.77 0.37 0.22 2 India 16.9 16.1 15.0 10.0 5.1 2.6 2.09 1.81 1.44 0.68 0.31 0.15 ' Southest 3.9 4.2 4.7 4.2 2.7 1.4 2.82 2.64 2.30 1.14 0.60 0.27 Niddlet Est nd rth Afrfcalegion 6.7 7.6 8.8 10.7 8.0 4.4 3.00 2.94 2.59 1.55 0.86 0.41 1 North Africa 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 2.64 2.69 2.17 1.05 0.50 0.18 2 Kiddle lst 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.2 7.1 4.1 3.13 3.03 2.73 1.68 0.94 0.45 Euroe and Central Asia lelon 4.0 3.7 3.8 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.86 0.76 0.72 0.37 0.16 0.07 1 Southern furope 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.33 1.26 1.03 0.50 0.19 0.08 2 OtheIr Kur" 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.45 0.36 0.44 0.22 0.10 0.07 3 C.I.S. andatic ReepMice 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.83 0.71 0.69 0.36 0.17 0.07 UC Region 8.1 8.4 7.6 5.1 2.2 0.9 1.99 1.86 1.43 0.68 0.26 0.10 1 Srzfl, Peru, enW venezula 3.9 3.9 3.3 2.1 0.9 0.4 2.15 1.92 1.39 0.63 0.24 0.10 2 Central Awele 2.2 2.5 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.3 2.05 2.08 1.64 0.79 0.29 0.10 3 Caribbean and other 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.85 1.73 1.40 0.69 0.28 0.13 4 Tesperat 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.58 1.43 1.18 0.60 0.24 0.09 Inco group Lou 59.2 60.7 59.5 46.4 28.3 15.2 2.05 1.90 1.57 0.82 0.43 0.21 Lower-mIddle 11.2 11.8 12.3 10.0 5.8 2.7 2.04 1.95 1.70 0.89 0.44 0.19 Upper-middle 9.7 10.1 10.6 10.6 7.1 4.0 2.04 1.96 1.67 1.05 0.57 0.29 Uioh 5.2 5.1 3.8 -0.2 *0.5 0.2 0.64 0.61 0.44 -0.02 -0.06 0.02 Nonreportfng no_eer 2.8 2.6 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.87 0.77 0.73 0.35 0.16 0.07 Notwa World Sank regions nd sountry d tments are defined In Box 2. Income gro4ps are defined in Box 1. Table 8. Fertiliy and Montaliy Rates by World Bank Region, Counry Depanen, and Income Group, 1985-90, 2000-05, and 2025-30 x 1990-95 2000-05 2025-30 z Region and Coamtry Department CBR TFR CDR e(O) IHR CBR TFR CDR e(O) IMR CBR TFR CDR e(O) INR c 0 Africa Region 44.6 6.23 14.8 51.8 104 40.6 5.52 12.8 54.1 84 26.0 3.03 8.2 62.5 53 z I Occidental and Central 43.7 6.26 13.9 53.2 100 40.6 5.53 12.2 54.8 79 24.9 2.87 7.7 63.6 47 2 Eastern 47.7 6.90 15.6 51.0 109 43.9 6.21 13.3 53.0 89 29.1 3.48 8.1 61.8 57 3 South-Central and Indian Ocean 46.4 6.50 15.5 50.4 104 41.8 5.80 13.4 52.4 82 26.3 3.05 8.4 61.4 51 4Western 42.6 5.91 13.9 52.3 95 37.2 4.84 11.3 55.9 73 21.3 2.39 7.8 64.1 45 5 Sahelian 47.3 6.68 17.7 e:7.8 125 46.2 6.54 15.1 50.8 104 30.7 3.67 8.9 59.8 65 6 Southern 41.5 5.56 13.8 54.1 99 38.0 5.05 12.8 55.2 85 25.6 3.04 8.6 62.9 54 East Asia and Pacific Region 22.6 2.57 6.9 68.9 33 17.8 2.22 6.5 71.9 22 14.3 2.09 7.3 77.9 7 I Southeast 26.1 3.08 7.2 66.0 41 20.9 2.49 6.2 69.5 27 15.5 2.11 6.5 76.1 11 2 China and Mongolia 21.1 2.38 6.6 70.6 27 16.5 2.11 6.4 73.3 18 13.8 2.08 7.5 78.9 5 3 Indonesia and Pacific 25.3 2.97 8.3 62.9 55 20.2 2.31 6.9 67.9 34 15.3 2.10 7.: 75.1 11 South Asia Region 30.5 4.03 10.8 58.4 93 25.1 3.15 9.0 62.3 72 17.4 2.22 7.7 70.4 31 t Other South 34.0 4.46 13.4 52.2 104 28.1 3.32 11.1 55.9 81 18.3 2.26 8.6 65.6 46 2 India 28.4 3.74 10.2 59.8 88 22.9 2.88 8.5 63.9 65 16.3 2.12 7.7 71.9 22 3 Southwest 39.0 5.33 12.3 56.1 107 33.5 4.48 10.3 59.0 91 21.2 2.58 7.3 67.3 48 Middle East and No.Africa Region 37.9 5.20 8.5 63.1 69 32.4 4.34 6.6 67.1 51 23.5 2.94 4.9 74.2 16 1 North Africa 34.6 4.49 7.6 64.8 61 27.5 3.39 5.7 68.9 42 18.4 2.26 5.0 75.8 10 2 Middle East 39.1 5.47 8.8 62.5 72 34.1 4.69 6.9 66.4 54 24.9 3.13 4.9 73.8 17 Europe and CentraL Asia Region 17.6 2.44 9.3 71.5 27 16.0 2.23 8.7 74.4 18 13.6 2.07 8.7 79.4 5 1 Southern Europe 21.7 2.77 8.6 69.3 46 18.2 2.35 7.8 72.2 31 14.5 2.08 7.7 77.9 6 2 Other Europe 14.9 2.09 10.2 71.8 17 14.6 2.07 9.7 74.0 12 13.0 2.08 9.8 79.4 5 3 C.I.S. and Baltic Republics 17.0 2.42 9.3 72.2 20 15.6 2.23 8.7 75.3 14 13.5 2.07 8.7 80.0 5 LAC Regfon 26.2 3.15 6.6 68.2 47 20.5 2.43 5.7 71.4 33 15.2 2.09 6.3 77.4 8 1 Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela 26.0 3.12 6.8 67.1 53 19.7 2.34 5.7 71.0 36 14.9 2.08 6.6 77.3 8 2 Central America 28.6 3.40 5.6 69.3 41 22.3 2.56 4.8 72.3 28 15.6 2.08 5.4 78.1 6 3 Caribbean and other 26.4 3.07 7.0 66.7 54 21.7 2.52 6.5 69.0 41 15.7 2.14 6.7 75.4 15 4 Temperate 22.1 2.87 7.5 70.9 30 18.8 2.38 6.9 73.2 21 14.7 2.09 7.0 78.7 6 Income group Low 29.0 3.59 9.8 62.1 75 24.5 3.10 8.7 64.9 61 18.2 2.40 7.7 71.4 31 Lower-middle 28.2 3.57 8.2 65.8 53 24.4 3.03 7.2 68.5 40 17.8 2.32 6.5 74.6 19 Upper-middle 27.3 3.41 7.3 68.1 53 23.1 2.91 6.2 71.2 39 18.7 2.55 6.1 76.9 10 High 13.4 1.79 8.7 77.2 8 12.2 1.85 8.5 79.3 6 11.6 2.05 10.4 82.6 3 Nonreporting normember 17.3 2.37 8.9 72.3 20 15.7 2.20 8.3 75.4 14 13.5 2.07 8.6 80.1 5 INTRODUCTION xxxI Table 9. Long-run and Stationary Population, Momentnm; Doubling Year, and Year when Net Reproduction reaches I by World Bank Region; Country Department, and Income Group Population (millions) Stationary Year population when over popula- Statio- 1990 PopuLation tion 1990 2050 2100 nary population momentum doubles NRR1 Africa Region 512 1810 2472 2634 5.1 1.5 2016 2055 1 Occidental and Central 45 156 208 219 4.9 1.6 2015 2045 2 Eastern 126 515 733 781 6.2 1.6 2013 2050 3 South-Central and Indian Ocean 73 260 356 379 5.2 1.5 2015 2055 4 Western 119 362 465 499 4.2 1.5 2017 2045 5 Sahelian 41 171 248 268 6.5 1.5 2013 2055 6 Southern 108 344 461 488 4.5 1.5 2018 2050 East Asia and Pacific Region 1619 2669 2847 2911 1.8 1.5 (a) 2040 1 Southeast 299 567 622 645 2.3 1.5 2067 2040 2 China and Mongolia 1136 1769 1860 1892 1.7 1.4 (a) 2015 3 Indonesia and Pacific 184 333 364 375 2.0 1.5 2110 2035 South Asia Region 1126 2281 2616 2726 2.4 1.4 2048 2050 i Other South 127 261 302 3.19 2.5 1.5 2045 2030 2 India 850 1599 1790 1855 2.2 1.4 2067 2015 3 Southwest 150 421 523 553 3.7 1.5 2022 2050 Middle East and No.AfrIca Region 240 834 1144 1199 5.0 1.6 2017 2060 1 North Africa 63 165 195 201 3.2 1.6 2025 2050 2 MiddLe East 177 669 948 998 5.6 1.6 2016 2060 Europe and Central Asia Region 473 654 694 706 1.5 1.2 (a) 2030 1 Southern Europe 99 157 168 171 1.7 1.3 (a) 2030 2 Other Europe 85 102 107 108 1.3 1.1 (a) 2030 3 C.I.S. and Baltic Republics 289 395 419 426 1.5 1.2 (a) 2030 LAC Region 429 823 900 919 2.1 1.6 2062 2030 1 Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela 192 360 391 399 2.1 1.5 2081 2010 2 Central America 115 242 267 272 2.4 1.7 2041 2025 3 Caribbean and other 59 112 124 128 2.2 1.6 2064 2030 4 Temperate 63 109 118 120 1.9 1.4 (a) 2030 Income group Low 3039 6268 7358 7765 2.6 1.4 2044 2055 Lower-middle 576 1249 1462 1510 2.6 1.6 2039 2055 Upper-middle 503 1155 1433 1496 3.0 1.4 2036 2060 High 822 930 921 929 1.1 1.1 (a) 2030 Nonreporting nornmember 328 452 479 486 1.5 1.2 (a) 2030 Note: World Bank regions and country departments are defined in Box 2. Income groups are defined in Box 1. a. Population will not double with projected rates. XXXii INTRODUCTION Table 10. Estimates and Projections of Total Populaton for All Countries and Economies, 1985-2025 (thousands) Country, economy, or region 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 World 4827212 5267831 5720651 6167907 6611985 7049458 7483922 7918682 8345351 Africa 541962 627000 723683 831304 948632 1072278 1200257 1332335 1466678 East Africa 233001 271890 316564 367230 423099 483136 547163 614317 683620 Botswana 1070 1254 1438 1609 1790 1972 2142 2303 2461 Burundi 4696 5427 6350 7395 8526 9747 11090 12544 14051 Comoros 395 475 564 664 775 898 1029 1163 1293 DJlbouti 354 427 500 583 674 769 868 967 1061 Ethiopia 43350 51180 60334 71476 84649 99648 116629 135523 155953 Kenya 20241 24160 28753 33962 39692 45799 52064 58239 64336 Lesotho 1545 1768 2023 2289 2569 2852 3133 3398 3635 Madagascar 9985 11673 13490 15410 17443 19565 21700 23781 25716 Malawi 7188 8507 10055 11849 13837 16045 18518 21263 24233 Mauritius 1020 1074 1121 1171 1224 1276 1322 1362 1397 Mozambique 13791 15707 18140 21160 24691 28454 32513 36906 41562 Namibia 1518 1780 2069 2384 2722 3073 3418 3759 4080 Reunion 547 593 640 685 729 771 8ll 849 885 Rwanda 6102 7118 8663 10436 12343 14451 16846 19567 22558 Seychelles 65 68 71 75 79 83 88 92 97 Somalia 6686 7805 9058 10587 12365 14292 16367 18571 20849 South Africa 31569 35919 40336 44787 49153 53391 57465 61183 64765 Swaziland 664 797 947 1115 1305 1511 1726 1938 2144 Tanzania 21161 24517 28519 33318 38711 44435 50523 56990 63746 Uganda 14134 16330 19248 22533 25869 29454 33314 37416 41615 Zaire 31700 37320 43454 50191 57596 65389 73429 81408 89205 Zambia 6753 8111 9510 11001 12578 14283 16094 17949 19763 Zimbabwe 8406 9805 11194 12448 13660 14840 15914 16964 18016 Other East Africa 61 73 87 102 120 139 159 180 200 West Africa 185408 214927 248674 287080 329757 374622 420334 467641 515197 North Africa 123553 140182 158445 176994 195776 214519 232760 250377 267861 Algeria 21848 25056 28995 33135 37227 41209 44959 48411 51815 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 46511 52061 57396 62395 67418 72331 76895 81322 85640 Libya 3786 4546 5450 6492 7693 9052 10570 12236 14026 Morocco 22061 25091 28461 31823 35046 38209 41265 44129 46938 Sudan 21931 25188 29027 33141 37537 42086 46673 51095 55488 Tunisia 7261 8060 8910 9771 10585 11325 12053 12795 13523 Other North Africa 155 179 207 237 270 307 347 389 431 America 667381 720914 776830 829875 879231 926593 973651 1019274 1061325 Latin America and Caribbean 399445 440766 483233 524032 562470 600038 637907 674790 709350 Antigua and Barbuda 76 79 84 90 97 104 109 114 119 Argentina 30331 32293 34096 35820 37464 39095 40728 42296 43765 Bahamas, The 232 255 278 303 327 347 365 381 397 Barbados 253 257 26" 270 276 281 286 292 298 BelIze 166 188 215 245 275 303 329 354 379 Bolivia 6342 7171 8144 9145 10151 11133 12053 12888 13713 Brazil 135564 150368 164880 178267 190425 202340 214473 226218 236961 Chile 12121 13173 14137 14973 15763 16570 17383 18162 18867 Colombia 29481 32345 35074 37622 40186 42820 45391 47794 49982 Costa Rica 2489 2807 3106 3377 3623 3867 4117 4360 4583 Cuba 10098 10617 11099 11615 12064 12449 12800 13142 13461 Dominica 74 72 74 79 85 91 97 102 108 Dominican Rep. 6416 7074 7709 8293 8826 9355 9899 10437 10947 INTRODUCTION XXXiii Table 10. Total Population (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Ecuador 9205 10284 11425 12577 13674 14670 15642 16621 17570 El Salvador 4767 5213 5703 6247 6816 7356 7846 8345 8883 Grenada 94 91 89 93 99 106 113 120 127 Guadeloupe 348 387 403 417 431 447 466 486 504 Guatemala 7963 9197 10622 12148 13757 15367 16959 18483 19889 Guyana 790 798 818 837 863 901 951 1000 1045 Haiti 5889 6472 7156 7830 8482 9164 9876 10603 11337 Honduras 4383 5105 5921 6802 7722 8633 9530 10385 11172 Jamaica 2311 2420 2520 2591 2667 2756 2860 2974 3095 Martinique 341 360 380 399 414 427 440 453 466 Mexico 78524 86154 94820 103273 110986 118576 126470 134235 141586 Montserrat 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 Netherlands Antilles 182 189 201 215 228 240 250 260 269 Nicaragua 3272 3853 4505 5198 5922 6643 7361 8049 8680 Panama 2180 2418 2634 2826 3012 3205 3396 3578 3745 Paraguay 3693 4314 4989 5694 6432 7215 8041 8843 9588 Peru 19383 21663 24126 26526 28774 30770 32728 34726 36675 St. Kitts and Nevis 43 40 37 35 34 34 35 37 39 St. Lucia 137 150 162 176 190 202 215 228 241 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 102 107 114 121 1?9 138 146 154 162 Suriname 398 447 498 545 587 627 667 710 751 Trinidad and Tobago 1160 1236 1301 1364 1428 1499 1576 1653 1725 Uruguay 3008 3094 3177 3274 3390 3501 3603 3697 3788 VenezueLa 17317 19738 22108 24358 26456 28367 30241 32124 33929 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 107 110 116 123 132 140 147 153 159 Other Latin America 194 214 234 253 270 287 302 316 329 Northern America 267936 280148 293597 305843 316761 326556 335745 344484 351975 Canada 25165 26522 27897 29158 30254 31189 32003 32738 33351 Puerto Rico 3377 3530 3650 3761 3859 3937 4001 4072 4151 United States of America 239279 249975 261923 272793 282513 291291 299600 307530 314329 Other Northern America 115 121 126 131 135 138 141 143 144 Asia 2822403 3102850 3384237 3652741 3912291 4162905 4408344 4653070 4891874 East and Southeast Asia 1651813 1787967 1922961 2046631 2158151 2260784 2360899 2459637 2553483 Brunei 219 256 297 337 374 406 433 458 483 Cambodia 7486 8469 9467 10254 10927 11605 12290 12997 13671 China (excluding Taiwan) 1047983 1133698 1218135 1293548 1359574 1420311 1480374 1540268 1597165 Taiwan, China 19135 20313 21218 22062 22915 23740 24490 25135 25701 Hong Kong 5456 5806 6074 6297 6494 6656 6787 6888 6960 Indonesia 163036 178232 193824 208935 222951 236338 249575 262433 274628 Japan 120754 123519 125710 127591 129215 129996 129823 128954 127740 Korea, Dem. PeopLe's Rep. of 19888 21576 23496 25363 27073 28581 29981 31351 32669 Korea, Rep. of 40806 42797 44746 46642 48460 50026 51346 52487 53526 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 3594 4186 4883 5660 6491 7394 8375 9403 10417 Macao 392 459 503 535 556 575 594 613 630 Malaysia 15682 17857 20134 22340 24429 26429 28300 30151 32001 Mongolia 1856 2124 2425 2735 3043 3338 3617 3874 4128 Myarunar 37544 41609 46413 50946 55053 58609 62148 65892 69640 Philippines 54700 61480 67757 73703 79476 84899 90285 95694 100911 Singepore 2731 3003 3219 3370 3500 :;18 3729 3831 3915 Thailand 51683 55853 59818 63855 68048 7128 75930 79427 82685 Viet Nam 58868 66312 74329 81964 89085 95587 102137 108960 115696 XXXiV INTRODUCTION Table 10. Total Population (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 South Asia 1055231 1182312 1308211 1431722 1557371 1682379 1803830 1925280 2045815 Afghanistan 18087 20445 23436 26968 31221 36062 41246 46822 52759 Bangladesh 95456 106656 117577 127929 138586 148803 157999 166895 175624 Shutan 1286 1433 1614 1821 2045 2268 2492 2712 2938 India 765147 849515 929921 1006114 1081237 1153367 1219866 1284486 1347589 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 46374 55779 66436 78264 91593 106929 124609 144534 166380 Maldives 182 214 253 296 342 391 443 494 546 Nepal 16682 18916 21495 24112 26785 29428 31993 34400 36553 Pakistan 96180 112351 129496 147290 165623 184166 203241 222099 239764 Sri Lanka 15837 17002 17985 18928 19938 20965 21942 22838 23663 Southwest Asia 115359 132571 153065 174389 196770 219742 243615 268153 292576 Bahrain 425 503 585 663 739 815 894 970 1037 Cyprus 666 702 731 758 786 814 842 867 888 Gaza Strip 517 588 684 789 909 1044 1191 1344 1499 Iraq 15898 18914 22410 26373 30660 35153 39699 44159 48368 Israel 4233 4659 5923 6425 6831 7211 7595 7978 8343 Jordan (East Bank) 2642 3098 3942 4615 5288 5926 6548 7153 7718 Kuwait 1712 2143 2235 2520 2782 3007 3190 3357 3501 Lebanon 2668 2681 2813 3013 3270 3510 3738 3974 4221 Oman 1242 1554 1901 2274 2680 3139 3641 4163 4672 Qatar 358 439 510 581 651 720 787 851 909 Saudi Arabia 12395 14870 17895 21335 25198 29412 33927 38590 43176 Syrian Arab Rep. 10348 12360 14860 17675 20807 24184 27720 31266 34797 Turkey 50306 56098 62027 67704 72901 77507 82016 86610 91065 United Arab Emirates 1349 1592 1793 1980 2151 2315 2455 2565 2660 West Bank 930 1088 1289 1507 1734 1957 2174 2381 2572 Yemen, Rep. of 9670 11282 13465 16177 19383 23027 27197 31925 37152 Europe and C.I.S. 769742 790333 808216 825469 842364 857207 870514 882598 893937 Albania 2962 3250 3516 3766 4000 4237 4475 4705 4917 Armenia 3198 3325 3445 3608 3781 3954 4120 4268 4404 Austria 7555 7712 7803 7840 7869 7862 7846 7827 7795 Azerbaijan 6669 7149 7540 7987 8425 8887 9359 9804 10213 Belarus 9975 10278 10545 10811 11066 11290 11502 11702 11904 Belgium 9858 9956 10085 10197 10279 10322 10333 10343 10358 Bulgaria 8941 8823 8724 8661 8649 8636 8632 8631 8647 Channel Islands 134 144 151 155 157 157 158 159 159 Czechoslovakia 15500 15662 15824 16058 16366 16655 16924 17174 17425 Croatia 4657 4712 4765 4822 4877 4919 4942 4954 4964 Dernmark 5114 5140 5187 5228 5250 5257 5257 5260 5261 Estonia 1532 1583 1633 1669 1705 1739 1769 1798 1825 Finland 4902 4986 5072 5144 5209 5260 5304 5342 5368 France 55170 56440 57655 58777 59831 60719 61396 61996 62540 Georgia 5299 5462 5616 5792 5962 6113 6256 6389 6521 Germany 77698 79484 80537 81126 81457 81253 80855 80380 79723 Greece 9934 10067 10168 10246 10323 10354 10328 10256 10175 Hungary 10657 10553 10291 10154 10069 10008 9952 9912 9881 Iceland 241 255 269 282 295 306 317 327 337 Ireland 3540 3503 3498 3528 3561 3633 3722 3824 3923 Italy 57141 57663 57943 57985 57920 57600 56960 56199 55436 Kazakhstan 15852 16746 17473 18332 19209 20154 21118 22004 22796 Kyrgyzstan 3996 4395 4757 5189 5626 6060 6470 6868 7263 Latvia 2621 2686 2765 2813 2861 2904 2944 2982 3017 INTRODUCTION XXX(V Table 10. Total Population (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Lithuania 3578 3731 3901 4007 4110 4199 4280 4356 4427 Luxembourg 367 378 384 387 388 388 387 387 386 Malta 344 354 362 371 380 388 396 403 409 MoLdova 4192 4367 4498 4640 4839 5105 5370 5593 5777 Netherlands 14492 14943 15433 15844 16105 16272 16392 16499 16583 Norway 4153 4242 4342 4434 4511 4573 4636 4703 4768 Poland 37203 38180 38973 39770 40693 41643 42542 43366 44144 PortugaL 10157 10354 10552 10736 10906 11036 11120 11181 11241 Romania 22725 23199 23612 24115 24646 25136 25605 26073 26562 Russian Federation 143858 148255 151826 155240 158858 162214 165512 168473 171235 Slovenia 1925 1954 1981 2012 2045 2072 2089 2098 2103 Spain 38505 38959 39391 39764 40139 40366 40422 40401 40402 Sweden 8350 8559 8761 8924 9035 9097 9173 9266 9350 Switzerland 6470 6712 6880 7011 7095 7125 7142 7152 7148 Talikistan 4580 5302 6046 6874 7718 8577 9412 10169 10903 Turkmenistan 3244 3669 4067 4479 4894 5308 5702 6082 6453 United Kingdom 56618 57395 58314 59101 59735 60274 60834 61481 62123 Ukraine 50917 51860 52854 53754 54614 55307 55988 56621 57306 Uzbekistan 18090 20532 22765 25224 27696 30147 32450 34682 36887 Yugoslavia 16567 17142 17730 18321 18908 19391 19805 20179 20543 Other Europe 260 271 282 293 303 312 320 328 334 Oceania 24629 26735 28919 30979 32876 34556 36041 37348 38581 AustraLia 15758 17085 18399 19587 20635 21503 22202 22760 23250 Fiji 700 744 782 813 842 874 909 947 984 French Polynesia 171 197 225 254 280 301 321 340 360 Guam 123 137 149 159 170 180 191 200 209 :tiribati 64 70 77 84 90 9W 103 110 116 Micronesia, Fed. States of 91 103 117 132 149 165 180 194 208 New Caledonia 152 165 178 190 203 215 226 237 247 New Zealand 3290 3405 3528 3655 3773 3878 3977 4073 4160 Papua New Guinea 3460 3915 4429 4937 5429 5905 6362 6788 7222 Solomon Islands 274 316 372 432 494 553 611 667 719 Tonga 95 99 105 111 117 124 130 137 146 Vanuatu 131 151 177 205 234 263 292 320 348 Western Samoa 157 165 178 193 211 231 250 268 286 Other Micronesia 85 97 110 122 135 147 157 168 179 Other Polynesia 79 85 94 103 114 123 131 140 149 XXXVi INTRODUCTION Table 11. Estimates and Projections of Population Growth Rate for All Countries and Economies, 1985-90 to 2020-25 (percent per year) Country, economy, or region 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 World 1.76 1.66 1.51 1.40 1.29 1.20 1.13 1.05 Africa 2.92 2.87 2.77 2.64 2.45 2.25 2.07 1.89 East Africa 3.09 3.04 2.97 2.83 2.65 2.49 2.32 2.14 Botswana 3.17 2.74 2.25 2.13 1.94 1.65 1.45 1.33 Burundi 2.89 3.14 3.05 2.85 2.68 2.58 2.46 2.27 Comoros 3.69 3.43 3.26 3.09 2.95 2.72 2.45 2.12 Djibouti 3.75 3.16 3.07 2.90 2.64 2.42 2.16 1.86 Ethiopia 3.32 3.29 3.39 3.38 3.26 3.15 3.00 2.81 Kenya 3.54 3.48 3.33 3.12 2.86 2.56 2.24 1.99 Lesotho 2.70 2.69 2.47 2.31 2.09 1.88 1.62 1.35 Madagascar 3.12 2.89 2.66 2.48 2.30 2.07 1.83 1.56 Malawi 3.37 3.34 3.28 3.10 2.96 2.87 2.76 2.61 Mauritius 1.03 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.83 0.71 0.60 0.51 Mozambique 2.60 2.88 3.08 3.09 2.84 2.67 2.53 2.38 Namibia 3.18 3.01 2.83 2.65 2.43 2.13 1.90 1.64 Reunion 1.61 1.53 1.36 1.25 1.12 1.01 0.92 0.83 Rwanda 3.08 3.93 3.72 3.36 3.15 3.07 2.99 2.84 Seychelles 0.90 0.86 1.10 1.04 0.99 1.17 0.89 1.06 Somalia 3.09 2.98 3.12 3.10 2.90 2.71 2.53 2.31 South Africa 2.58 2.32 2.09 1.86 1.65 1.47 1.25 1.14 Swaziland 3.65 3.45 3.27 3.15 2.93 2.66 2.32 2.02 Tanzania 2.94 3.02 3.11 3.00 2.76 2.57 2.41 2.24 Uganda 2.89 3.29 3.15 2.76 2.60 2.46 2.32 2.13 Zaire 3.26 3.04 2.88 2.75 2.54 2.32 2.06 1.83 Zambia 3.66 3.18 2.91 2.68 2.54 2.39 2.18 1.93 Zimbabwe 3.08 2.65 2.12 1.86 1.66 1.40 1.28 1.20 Other East Africa 3.59 3.51 3.18 3.25 2.94 2.69 2.48 2.11 West Africa 2.97 2.91 2.85 2.75 2.54 2.29 2.07 1.85 Angola 2.69 2.84 3.10 3.14 2.88 2.69 2.54 2.36 Benin 3.18 2.97 2.72 2.46 2.28 2.04 1.74 1.60 Burkina Faso 2.69 2.79 2.91 2.84 2.67 2.51 2.33 2.12 Cameroon 2.88 2.87 2.90 2.91 2.67 2.36 2.03 1.83 Cape Verde 2.71 3.14 2.79 2.45 2.18 2.08 1.91 1.65 Central African Rep. 2.74 2.53 2.39 2.22 2.02 1.83 1.63 1.54 Chad 2.48 2.56 2.77 2.81 2.58 2.40 2.22 2.00 Congo, People's Rep. of the 3.22 3.23 3.23 3.22 3.01 2.82 2.63 2.39 Cote d'ivoire 3.98 3.54 3.28 3.06 2.81 2.53 2.25 1.95 Equatorial Guinea 2.23 2.22 2.31 2.24 2.05 1.86 1.67 1.54 Gabon 2.61 2.74 2.78 2.87 2.66 2.52 2.40 2.19 Gambia, The 3.14 2.89 2.77 2.76 2.70 2.54 2.39 2.22 Ghana 3.28 3.09 2.87 2.67 2.45 2.19 1.92 1.65 Guinea 2.73 2.70 2.85 2.98 2.87 2.62 2.42 2.25 Guinea-Bissau 2.02 1.91 2.01 2.04 2.06 1.93 1.77 1.61 Liberia 3.05 3.01 2.84 2.68 2.47 2.23 1.91 1.73 Mali 2.71 2.87 3.11 3.17 3.03 2.90 2.75 2.58 Mauritania 2.60 2.69 2.90 3.09 3.07 2.90 2.76 2.59 Niger 3.11 3.12 3.30 3.48 3.42 3.22 3.06 2.92 Nigeria 2.91 2.87 2.75 2.58 2.31 2.01 1.89 1.69 Sao Tome and Principe 2.74 2.56 2.41 2.27 2.04 1.75 1.61 1.32 Senegal 2.93 3.04 3.13 3.02 2.80 2.61 2.43 2.21 Sierra Leone 2.48 2.46 2.61 2.76 2.74 2.56 2.40 2.24 Togo 3.60 3.33 3.06 2.84 2.66 2.44 2.15 1.90 Other West Africa 0.00 2.67 0.00 2.36 0.00 2.11 0.00 1.91 North Africa 2.53 2.45 2.21 2.02 1.83 1.63 1.46 1.35 Algeria 2.74 2.92 2.67 2.33 2.03 1.74 1.48 1.36 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 2.25 1.95 1.67 1.55 1.41 1.22 1.12 1.03 INTRODUCTION XXXVII Table 11. Population Growth Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 Libya 3.66 3.63 3.50 3.39 3.25 3.10 2.93 2.73 Morocco 2.57 2.52 2.23 1.93 1.73 1.54 1.34 1.23 Sudan 2.77 2.84 2.65 2.49 2.29 2.07 1.81 1.65 Tunisia 2.09 2.01 1.84 1.60 1.35 1.25 1.19 1.11 Other North Africa 2.88 2.91 2.71 2.61 2.57 2.45 2.29 2.05 America 1.54 1.49 1.32 1.16 1.05 0.99 0.92 0.81 Latin America and Caribbean 1.97 1.84 1.62 1.42 1.29 1.22 1.12 1.00 Antigua and Barbuda 0.77 1.23 1.38 1.50 1.39 0.94 0.90 0.86 Argentina 1.25 1.09 0.99 0.90 0.85 0.82 0.76 0.68 Bahamas, The 1.89 1.73 1.72 1.52 1.19 1.01 0.86 0.82 Barbados 0.31 0.46 0.53 0.44 0.36 0.35 0.42 0.41 Belize 2.49 2.68 2.61 2.31 1.94 1.65 1.46 1.36 Bolivia 2.46 2.54 2.32 2.09 1.85 1.59 1.34 1.24 Brazil 2.07 1.84 1.56 1.32 1.21 1.16 1.07 0.93 Chile 1.66 1.41 1.15 1.03 1.00 0.96 0.88 0.76 Colombia 1.85 1.62 1.40 1.32 1.27 1.17 1.03 0.90 Costa Rica 2.40 2.02 1.67 1.41 1.30 1.25 1.15 1.00 Cuba 1.00 0.89 0.91 0.76 0.63 0.56 0.53 0.48 Dominica -0.55 0.55 1.31 1.46 1.36 1.28 1.01 1.14 Dominican Rep. 1.95 1.72 1.46 1.25 1.16 1.13 1.06 0.95 Ecuador 2.22 2.10 1.92 1.67 1.41 1.28 1.21 1.11 El Salvador 1.79 1.80 1.82 1.74 1.52 1.29 1.23 1.25 Grenada -0.65 -0.44 0.88 1.25 1.37 1.28 1.20 1.13 Guadeloupe 2.12 0.81 0.68 0.66 0.73 0.83 0.84 0.73 Guatemala 2.88 2.88 2.68 2.49 2.21 1.97 1.72 1.47 Guyana 0.20 0.50 0.46 0.61 0.86 1.08 1.00 0.88 Haiti 1.89 2.01 1.80 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.42 1.34 Honduras 3.05 2.97 2.77 2.54 2.23 1.98 1.72 1.46 Jamaica 0.92 0.81 0.56 0.58 0.66 0.74 0.78 0.80 Martinique 1.08 1.08 0.98 0.74 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.57 Mexico 1.85 1.92 1.71 1.44 1.32 1.29 1.19 1.07 Montserrat 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 1.48 0.00 1.38 Netherlands Antilles 0.75 1.23 1.35 1.17 1.03 0.82 0.78 0.68 Nicaragua 3.27 3.13 2.86 2.61 2.30 2.05 1.79 1.51 Panama 2.07 1.71 1.41 1.27 1.24 1.16 1.04 0.91 Paraguay 3.11 2.91 2.64 2.44 2.50 2.17 1.90 1.62 Peru 2.22 2.15 1.90 1.63 1.34 1.23 1.19 1.09 St. Kitts and Nevis -1.45 -1.56 -1.11 -0.58 0.00 0.58 1.11 1.05 St. Lucia 1.81 1.54 1.66 1.53 1.22 1.25 1.17 1.11 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0.96 1.27 1.19 1.28 1.35 1.13 1.07 1.01 Suriname 2.32 2.16 1.80 1.48 1.32 1.24 1.25 1.12 Trinidad and Tobago 1.27 1.03 0.95 0.92 0.97 1.00 0.95 0.85 Uruguay 0.56 0.53 0.60 0.70 0.64 0.57 0.52 0.49 Venezuela 2.62 2.27 1.94 1.65 1.39 1.28 1.21 1.09 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 0.55 1.06 1.17 1.41 1.18 0.98 0.80 0.77 Other Latin America 1.96 1.79 1.56 1.30 1.22 1.02 0.91 0.81 Northern America 0.89 0.94 0.82 0.70 0.61 0.56 0.51 0.43 Canada 1.05 1.01 0.88 0.74 0.61 0.52 0.45 0.37 Puerto Rico 0.89 0.67 0.60 0.51 0.40 0.32 0.35 0.38 United States of America 0.87 0.93 0.81 0.70 0.61 0.56 0.52 0.44 Other Northern America 1.02 0.81 0.78 0.60 0.44 0.43 0.28 0.14 Asia 1.89 1.74 1.53 1.37 1.24 1.15 1.08 1.00 East and Southeast Asia 1.58 1.46 1.25 1.06 0.93 0.87 0.82 0.75 Brunef 3.12 2.97 2.53 2.08 1.64 1.29 1.12 1.06 Cambodia 2.47 2.23 1.60 1.27 1.20 1.15 1.12 1.01 China (excluding Taiwan) 1.57 1.44 1.20 1.00 0.87 0.83 0.79 0.73 XXXVIii INTRODUCTION Table 11. Population Growth Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 Taiwan, China 1.19 0.87 0.78 0.76 0.71 0.62 0.52 0.45 Hong Kong 1.24 0.90 0.72 0.62 0.49 0.39 0.30 0.21 Indonesia 1.78 1.6S 1.50 1.30 1.17 1.09 1.00 0.91 Japan 0.45 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.12 -0.03 -0.13 -0.19 Korea, Den. People's Rep. of 1.63 1.70 1.53 1.30 1.08 0.96 0.89 0.82 Korea, Rep. of 0.95 0.89 0.83 0.76 0.64 0.52 0.44 0.39 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 3.05 3.08 2.95 2.74 2.61 2.49 2.32 2.05 Macao 3.16 1.83 1.23 0.77 0.67 0.65 0.63 0.55 Malaysia 2.60 2.40 2.08 1.79 1.57 1.37 1.27 1.19 Mongolia 2.70 2.65 2.41 2.13 1.85 1.61 1.37 1.27 Myarvmar 2.06 2.19 1.86 1.55 1.25 1.17 1.17 1.11 Philippines 2.34 1.94 1.68 1.51 1.32 1.23 1.16 1.06 Singapore 1.90 1.39 0.92 0.76 0.66 0.60 0.54 0.43 Thailand 1.55 1.37 1.31 1.27 1.16 1.03 0.90 0.80 Viet Nam 2.38 2.28 1.96 1.67 1.41 1.33 1.29 1.20 South Asia 2.27 2.02 1.80 1.68 1.54 1.39 1.30 1.21 Afghanistan 2.45 2.73 2.81 2.93 2.88 2.69 2.54 2.39 Bangladesh 2.22 1.95 1.69 1.60 1.42 1.20 1.10 1.02 Bhutan 2.16 2.38 2.41 2.32 2.07 1.88 1.69 1.60 Irdia 2.09 1.81 1.58 1.44 1.29 1.12 1.03 0.96 Iran, IsLamic Rep. of 3.69 3.50 3.28 3.15 3.10 3.06 2.97 2.82 Maldives 3.24 3.35 3.14 2.89 2.68 2.50 2.18 2.00 Nepal 2.51 2.56 2.30 2.10 1.88 1.67 1.45 1.21 Pakistan 3.11 2.84 2.58 2.35 2.12 1.97 1.77 1.53 Sri Lanka 1.42 1.12 1.02 1.04 1.00 0.91 0.80 0.71 Southwest Asia 2.78 2.87 2.61 2.41 2.21 2.06 1.92 1.74 Bahrain 3.37 3.02 2.50 2.17 1.96 1.85 1.63 1.34 Cyprus 1.05 0.81 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.68 0.59 0.48 Gaza Strip 2.57 3.02 2.86 2.83 2.77 2.63 2.42 2.18 Iraq 3.47 3.39 3.26 3.01 2.74 2.43 2.13 1.82 Israel 1.92 4.80 1.63 1.23 1.08 1.04 0.98 0.89 Jordan (East Bank) 3.18 4.82 3.15 2.72 2.28 2.00 1.77 1.52 Kuwait 4.49 0.84 2.40 1.98 1.56 1.18 1.02 0.84 Lebanon 0.10 0.96 1.37 1.64 1.42 1.26 1.22 1.21 Oman 4.48 4.03 3.58 3.29 3.16 2.97 2.68 2.31 Qatar 4.08 3.00 2.61 2.28 2.01 1.78 1.56 1.32 Saudi Arabia 3.64 3.70 3.52 3.33 3.09 2.86 2.58 2.25 Syrian Arab Rep. 3.55 3.68 3.47 3.26 3.01 2.73 2.41 2.14 Turkey 2.18 2.01 1.75 1.48 1.23 1.13 1.09 1.00 United Arab Emirates 3.31 2.38 1.98 1.66 1.47 1.17 0.88 0.73 West Bank 3.14 3.39 3.13 2.81 2.42 2.10 1.82 1.54 Yemen, Rep. of 3.08 3.54 3.67 3.62 3.45 3.33 3.21 3.03 Europe and C.I.S. 0.53 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.35 0.31 0.28 0.26 Albania 1.86 1.57 1.37 *.21 1.15 1.09 1.00 0.88 Armenia 0.78 0.71 0.92 0.94 0.89 0.82 0.71 0.63 Austria 0.41 0.23 0.09 0.07 -0.02 -0.04 -0.05 -0.08 AzerbaiJan 1.39 1.06 1.15 1.07 1.07 1.03 0.93 0.82 Belarus 0.60 0.51 0.50 0.47 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.34 Belgium 0.20 0.26 0.22 0.16 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.03 Bulgaria -0.27 -0.23 -0.14 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 -0.00 0.04 Channel Islands 1.44 0.95 0.52 0.26 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.00 Czechoslovakia 0.21 0.21 0.29 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.29 Croatia 0.23 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.17 0.09 0.05 0.04 Devnark 0.10 0.18 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 Estonia 0.65 0.62 0.44 0.43 0.39 0.34 0.33 0.30 Finland 0.34 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.19 0.17 0.14 0.10 France 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.29 0.22 0.19 0.17 INTRODUCTION XXXIX Table 11. Population Growth Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-90 1940-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 Georgia 0.61 0.56 0.62 0.58 0.50 0.46 0.42 0.41 Germany 0.45 0.26 0.15 0.08 -0.05 -0.10 -0.12 -0.16 Greece 0.27 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.06 -0.05 -0.14 -0.16 Hungary -0.20 -0.50 -0.27 -0.17 -0.12 -0.11 -0.08 -0.06 Iceland 1.13 1.07 0.94 0.90 0.73 0.71 0.62 0.60 Ireland -0.21 -0.03 0.17 0.19 0.40 0.48 0.54 0.51 Italy 0.18 0.10 0.01 -0.02 -0.11 -0.22 -0.27 -0.27 Kazakhstan 1.10 0.85 0.96 0.93 0.96 0.93 0.82 0.71 Kyrgyzstan 1.90 1.58 1.74 1.62 1.49 1.31 1.19 1.12 Latvia 0.49 0.58 0.34 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.26 0.23 Lithuania 0.84 0.89 0.54 0.51 0.43 0.38 0.35 0.32 Luxembourg 0.59 0.31 0.16 0.05 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.05 Malta 0.57 0.45 0.49 0.48 0.42 0.41 0.35 0.30 M_ldova 0.82 0.59 0.62 0.84 1.07 1.01 0.81 0.65 Netherlands 0.61 0.65 0.53 0.33 0.21 0.15 0.13 0.10 Norway 0.42 0.47 0.42 0.34 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.27 Poland 0.52 0.41 0.40 0.46 0.46 0.43 0.38 0.36 Portugal 0.38 0.38 0.35 0.31 0.24 0.15 0.11 0.11 Romania 0.41 0.35 0.2 0.44 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.37 Russian Federation 0.6n 0.48 0.44 0.46 0.42 0.40 0.35 0.33 Slovenia 0.30 0.27 0.31 0.33 0.26 0.16 0.09 0.05 Spain 0.23 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.11 0.03 -0.01 0.00 Sweden 0.49 0.47 0.37 0.25 0.14 0.17 0.20 0.18 Switzerland 0.73 0.49 0.38 0.24 0.08 0.05 0.03 -0.01 Tajikistan 2.93 2.63 2.57 2.32 2.11 1.86 1.55 1.39 Turkmenistan 2.46 2.06 1.93 1.77 1.62 1.43 1.29 1.18 United Kingdom 0.27 0.32 0.27 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.21 Ukraine 0.37 0.38 0.34 0.32 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.24 Uzbekistan 2.53 2.06 2.05 1.87 1.70 1.47 1.33 1.23 Yugoslavia 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.63 0.50 0.42 0.37 0.36 Other Europe 0.83 0.80 0.77 0.67 0.59 0.51 0.49 0.36 Oceania 1.64 1.57 1.38 1.19 1.00 0.84 0.71 0.65 Australia 1.62 1.48 1.25 1.04 0.82 0.64 0.50 0.43 Fiji 1.22 1.00 0.78 0.70 0.75 0.79 0.82 0.77 Fre.nch Polynesia 2.83 2.66 2.42 1.95 1.45 1.29 1.15 1.14 Guam 2.16 1.68 1.30 1.34 1.14 1.19 0.92 0.88 Kiribati 1.79 1.91 1.74 1.38 1.50 1.20 1.32 1.06 Micronesia, Fed. States of 2.48 2.55 2.41 2.42 2.04 1.74 1.50 1.39 New Caledonia 1.64 1.52 1.30 1.32 1.15 1.00 0.95 0.83 New Zealand 0.69 0.71 0.71 0.64 O.S5 0.50 0.48 0.42 Papua New Guinea 2.47 2.47 2.17 1.90 1.68 1.49 1.30 1.24 Solomon Islands 2.85 3.26 2.99 2.68 2.26 1.99 1.75 1.50 Tonga 0.82 1.18 1.11 1.05 1.16 0.95 1.05 1.27 Vanuatu 2.84 3.18 2.94 2.65 2.34 2.09 1.83 1.68 Western Samoa 0.99 1.52 1.62 1.78 1.81 1.58 1.39 1.30 Other Micronesia 2.64 2.52 2.07 2.03 1.70 1.32 1.35 1.27 Other Polynesia 1.46 2.01 1.83 2.03 1.52 1.26 1.33 1.25 Xl INTRODUCTION Table 12. Estimates and Projections of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for AM Countries and Economies, 1985-90 to 2025-30 Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 World 3.44 3.24 3.03 2.88 2.74 2.61 2.52 2.44 2.35 Africa 6.06 5.85 5.50 5.10 4.59 4.09 3.64 3.27 2.92 East Afeica 6.41 6.30 6.07 5.70 5.17 4.64 4.14 3.69 3.27 Botswana 5.30 4.33 3.35 2.92 2.54 2.22 2.10 2.09 2.08 Burundi 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.50 5.90 5.30 4.70 4.10 3.50 Comoros 7.00 6.70 6.10 5.50 4.90 4.30 3.70 3.13 2.65 Djiboutl 6.60 6.60 6.30 5.70 5.10 4.50 3.90 3.30 2.91 Ethiopia 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.20 6.60 6.00 5.40 4.80 4.20 Kenya 6.70 6.43 5.86 5.28 4.68 4.08 3.48 3.02 2.61 Lesotho 5.80 5.50 4.90 4.30 3.70 3.17 2.72 2.34 2.20 Madagascar 6.46 6.16 5.56 4.96 4.36 3.76 3.24 2.79 7 40 Malawi 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.30 6.70 6.10 5.50 4.90 4.0 Mauritius 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.81 1.86 1.91 1.96 2.01 2.06 Mozambique 6.30 6.52 6.74 6.66 6.06 5.46 4.86 4.26 3.66 Namibia 6.09 5.79 5.19 4.59 3.99 3.39 2.97 2.59 2.27 Reunion 2.42 2.16 2.07 2.06 2.06 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.05 Rwanda 8.29 8.29 7.99 7.39 6.79 6.19 5.59 4.99 4.39 Seychelles 3.00 2.70 2.42 2.18 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 SomaLia 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.47 5.87 5.27 4.67 4.07 3.47 South Africa 4.48 4.08 3.68 3.28 2.88 2.54 2.23 2.12 2.11 Swaziland 6.87 6.57 5.97 5.37 4.77 4.17 3.57 3.07 2.64 Tanzania 5.50 6.61 6.72 6.53 5.93 5.33 4.73 4.13 3.53 Uganda 7.30 7.30 7.00 6.40 5.80 5.20 4.60 4.00 3.40 Zaire 6.30 6.22 5.84 5.46 4.86 4.26 3.66 3.15 2.72 Zambia 6.75 6.67 6.29 5.91 5.31 4.71 4.11 3.51 3.06 Zimbabwe 5.40 4.55 3.70 3.19 2.76 2.38 2.24 2.22 2.19 Other East Africa 7.00 6.70 6.10 5.50 4.90 4.30 3.70 3.13 2.65 West Africa 6.28 6.14 5.76 5.33 4.76 4.16 3.65 3.19 2.79 Angola 6.39 6.56 6.72 6.59 5.99 5.39 4.79 4.19 3.59 Benin 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.20 2.88 2.59 Burkina Faso 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.20 Cameroon 5.90 5.85 5.50 5.14 4.54 3.94 3.34 2.93 2.57 Cape Verde 5.58 5.28 4.68 4.08 3.48 3.00 2.59 2.23 2.10 Central African Rep. 5.75 5.75 5.46 5.16 4.56 3.96 3.36 2.98 2.65 Chad 5.89 6.03 6.17 6.00 5.40 4.80 4.20 3.60 3.10 Congo, People's Rep. of the 6.50 6.61 6.43 6.24 5.64 5.04 4.44 3.84 3.24 Cote d'ivofre 6.80 6.61 6.12 5.63 5.03 4.43 3.83 3.23 2.86 Equatorial Cuinea 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.20 4.60 4.00 3.40 3.00 2.65 Gabon 5.50 5.92 6.03 6.15 5.55 4.95 4.35 3.75 3.15 Gambia, The 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 Ghana 6.40 6.10 5.50 4.90 4.30 3.70 3.17 2.72 2.34 Guinea 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 Guinea-Bissau 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.70 5.10 4.50 3.90 3.39 Liberia 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.20 2.85 2.54 Mali 7.00 7.06 7.11 6.87 6.27 5.67 5.07 4.47 3.87 Mauritania 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.50 5.90 5.30 4.70 4.10 Niger p.10 7.18 7.27 7.35 7.05 6.45 5.85 5.25 4.65 Nigeria 6.10 5.86 5.31 4.77 4.17 3.57 3.24 2.89 2.57 Sao Tome and Principe 5.25 4.95 4.35 3.75 3.15 2.78 2.45 2.16 2.06 Senegal 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.20 Sierra Leone 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 Togo 6.80 6.50 5.90 5.30 4.70 4.10 3.50 3.04 2.65 Other West Africa 2.99 2.71 2.46 2.23 2.14 2.12 2.09 2.07 2.05 North Africa 5.03 4.55 4.01 3.54 3.15 2.80 2.53 2.40 2.31 Algeria 5.50 4.82 4.14 3.46 2.99 2.58 2.23 2.11 2.09 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 4.38 3.84 3.30 2.92 2.59 2.29 2.18 2.15 2.12 INTRODUCTION XIi Table 12. Total Fertility Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Libya 6.87 6.47 6.06 5.66 5.25 4.85 4.44 4.04 3.63 Morocco 4.84 4.30 3.75 3.21 2.84 2.52 2.23 2.12 2.10 Sudan 6.44 6.22 5.71 5.19 4.59 3.99 3.39 3.00 2.65 Tunisia 4.00 3.31 2.90 2.55 2.23 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.08 Other North Africa 6.50 6.50 5.99 5.48 4.97 4.46 3.95 3.44 2.99 America 2.82 2.70 2.49 2.29 2.19 2.15 2.12 2.10 2.08 Latin America and Caribbean 3.53 3.12 2.74 2.42 2.26 2.20 2.15 2.11 2.09 Antigua and Barbuda 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.93 1.95 1.98 2.01 2.03 2.06 Argentina 2.96 2.68 2.42 2.19 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 Bahmas, The 2.30 2.13 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Barbados 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.05 Belize 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.01 2.58 2.22 2.08 2.07 Bolivia 5.00 4.70 4.10 3.50 3.03 2.62 2.26 2.14 2.11 Brazil 3.49 3.02 2.62 2.27 2.14 2.12 2.11 2.09 2.08 Chile 2.73 2.44 2.19 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 coLmbia 2.90 2.55 2.24 2.13 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 Costa Rica 3.26 2.86 2.51 2.20 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Cuba 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.93 1.96 1.98 2.01 2.04 2.06 Dominica 3.13 2.64 2.23 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 Dominican Rep. 3.50 3.03 2.63 2.28 2.15 2.13 2.11 2.10 2.08 Ecuador 4.10 3.50 3.03 2.62 2.26 2.13 2.12 2.10 2.09 El Salvador 4.60 4.05 3.49 3.01 2.60 2.24 2.11 2.10 2.08 Grenada 3.28 2.88 2.53 2.21 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 Guadeloupe 2.60 2.22 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Guatemale 5.60 5.30 4.70 4.10 3.50 3.01 2.58 2.22 2.09 Guyana 3.06 2.64 2.28 2.15 2.13 2.12 2.10 2.09 2.07 Haiti 4.99 4.68 4.37 4.05 3.71 3.37 3.03 2.77 2.52 Honduras 5.55 5.00 4.44 3.89 3.34 2.91 2.53 2.21 2.09 JamaIca 3.00 2.57 2.20 2.07 2.07 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.05 Martinique 2.14 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.06 Mexico 3.58 3.07 2.63 2.25 2.12 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 Montserrat 2.64 2.40 2.19 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Netherlands Antilles 2.15 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.06 Nicaragua 5.50 5.20 4.60 4.00 3.40 2.95 2.55 2.21 2.09 Panama 3.14 2.65 2.24 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Paraguay 4.80 4.50 4.20 3.90 3.60 3.30 2.88 2.52 2.20 Peru 4.06 3.58 3.08 2.65 2.28 2.15 2.13 2.11 2.09 St. Kltts and Nevis 2.80 2.49 2.22 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 St. Lucia 3.50 3.01 2.58 2.22 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 St. Vincent and the Grenadiaies 2.75 2.46 2.19 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 2.07 Surlname 3.68 3.22 2.84 2.51 2.21 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 Trinidad and Tobago 2.95 2.66 2.40 2.17 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 2.06 Uruguay 2.43 2.19 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Venezuela 3.77 3.36 2.92 2.55 2.22 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 2.58 2.23 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Other Latin America 3.02 2.61 2.25 2.13 2.12 2.12 2.11 2.11 2.10 Northern America 1.87 1.99 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 Canada 1.68 1.85 1.88 1.91 1.94 1.97 2.00 2.03 2.06 Puerto Rico 2.40 2.17 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.06 United States of America 1.88 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.06 Other Northern America 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.07 2.08 Asia 3.48 3.16 2.87 2.69 2.54 2.41 2.34 2.29 2.25 East and Southeast Asia 2.72 2.49 2.29 2.17 2.12 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.08 Brunei 4.10 3.70 3.30 2.88 2.51 2.19 2.07 2.07 2.06 Cambodia 4.70 4.40 3.80 3.27 2.81 2.41 2.27 2.23 2.18 China (excluding Taiwan) 2.58 2.37 2.18 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 Xlii INTRODUCnON Table 12. Total Fertility Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-04 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Taiwan, China 1.95 1.75 1.75 1.80 1.86 1.91 1.95 2.00 2.05 Hong Kong 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.56 1.67 1.76 1.86 1.95 2.03 Indonesia 3.32 2.93 2.58 2.27 2.16 2.14 2.13 2.11 2.09 Japan 1.68 1.55 1.55 1.64 1.73 1.81 1.89 1.96 2.03 Korea, Dem. Peopte's Rep. of 2.50 2.22 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 2.07 Korea, Rep. of 1.80 1.75 1.75 1.80 1.86 1.91 1.96 2.00 2.05 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 6.69 6.69 6.39 5.79 5.19 4.59 3.99 3.39 2.97 Macao 2.20 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 Malaysia 4.00 3.63 3 26 2.86 2.50 2.20 2.08 2.08 2.08 Mongolia 5.00 4.49 3.98 3.47 3.00 2.59 2.24 2.12 2.10 Myarvar 4.02 3.72 3.17 2.70 2.29 2.15 2.13 2.11 2.09 Philippines 3.94 3.31 2.91 2.55 2.24 2.13 2.11 2.10 2.09 Singapore 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.89 1.92 1.95 1.99 2.02 2.05 Thailand 2.60 2.25 2.13 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 Viet Nam 4.15 3.57 3.06 2.62 2.25 2.12 2.10 2.09 2.08 South Asia 4.64 4.13 3.62 3.26 2.94 2.66 2.53 2.45 2.37 Afghanistan 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.60 6.00 5.40 4.80 4.20 Bangladesh 5.00 4.25 3.50 3.12 2.79 2.49 2.37 2.32 2.26 Bhutan 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.23 4.63 4.03 3.43 3.04 2.69 India 4.27 3.74 3.22 2.88 2.57 2.29 2.19 2.15 2.12 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 6.40 6.10 5.80 5.50 5.20 4.90 4.60 4.30 4.00 Maldives 6.50 5.97 5.43 4.90 4.36 3.83 3.29 2.88 2.52 Nepal 5.86 5.56 4.96 4.36 3.76 3.23 2.78 2.39 2.25 Pakistan 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.35 2.95 2.59 2.28 Sri Lanka 2.60 2.23 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Southwest Asfa 5.05 4.75 4.37 4.01 3.64 3.35 3.08 2.83 2.60 Bahrain 4.90 4.55 4.20 3.85 3.50 3.15 2.79 2.46 2.18 Cyprus 2.35 2.16 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 Gaza Strip 6.76 6.46 5.86 5.26 4.66 4.06 3.46 2.98 2.57 Iraq 6.35 6.05 5.45 4.85 4.25 3.65 3.10 2.64 2.24 Israel 3.01 2.70 2.42 2.17 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 Jordan (East Bank) 5.82 5.22 4.61 4.01 3.40 2.94 2.55 2.20 2.08 Kuwaft 3.86 3.11 2.75 2.44 2.16 2.06 2.05 2.05 2.05 Lebanon 3.79 3.49 3.19 2.83 2.51 2.23 2.12 2.11 2.09 Oman 7.17 6.87 6.27 5.67 5.07 4.47 3.87 3.27 2.86 Qatar 5.84 5.54 4.94 4.34 3.74 3.14 2.78 2.46 2.17 Saudi Arabia 7.17 6.87 6.27 5.67 5.07 4.47 3.87 3.27 2.86 Syrian Arab Rep. 6.66 6.36 5.76 5.16 4.56 3.96 3.36 2.92 2.S4 Turkey 3.73 3.31 2.91 2.56 2.25 2.14 2.12 2.10 2.08 United Arab Emirates 4.82 4.37 3.91 3.46 2.97 2.56 2.21 2.08 2.07 West Bank 5.75 5.45 4.85 4.25 3.65 3.09 2.62 2.22 2.08 Yemen, Rep. of 7.71 7.71 7.71 7.41 6.81 6.21 5.61 5.01 4.41 Europe and C.I.S. 2.04 1.99 1.96 1.98 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.04 2.06 Albania 3.16 2.81 2.50 2.22 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 Armenia 2.57 2.23 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Austria 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.79 1.88 1.96 2.04 AzerbaiJan 2.90 2.54 2.21 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 2.07 Betarus 2.21 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.06 Belgium 1.55 1.75 1.80 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.05 Bulgarfa 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.98 2.00 2.02 2.04 2.05 2.07 Channel Islands 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.72 1.79 1.86 1.92 1.98 2.04 Czechoslovakfi 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 Croatia 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.89 1.93 1.96 2.00 2.04 2.07 Denmark 1.55 1.70 1.75 1.81 1.86 1.91 1.95 2.00 2.05 EstonIa 2.20 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 Finland 1.75 1.89 1.91 1.94 1.96 1.99 2.01 2.03 2.06 France 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.86 1.90 1.94 1.98 2.01 2.05 INTRODUCTION xliii Table 12. Total Fertility Rate (continued) Country, economy, or regfon 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010- 14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Georgia 2.17 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Germany 1.50 1.60 1.67 1.74 1.81 1.87 1.93 1.99 2.05 Greece 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.62 1.7 1.81 1.89 1.97 2.05 Hungary 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.86 1.90 1.94 1.99 2.03 2.07 Iceland 2.05 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Ireland 2.34 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Italy 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.46 1.59 1.72 1.83 1.94 2.04 Kazakhstan 3.04 2.61 2.23 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Kyrgyzstan 3.94 3.52 3.10 2.76 2.46 2.19 2.09 2.08 2.07 Latvia 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.04 2.04 2.05 2.05 2.06 2.06 Lithuania 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 Luxembourg 1.45 1.75 1.80 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.05 Malta 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.09 2.09 2.09 Moldova 3.10 2.63 2.23 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Netherlands 1.56 1.70 1.75 1.81 1.86 1.91 1.95 2.00 2.05 Norway 1.80 1.90 1.92 1.95 1.97 1.99 2.02 2.04 2.06 Poland 2.20 2.12 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.09 Portugal 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.74 1.82 1.90 1.98 2.05 Romania 2.31 2.15 2.13 2.12 2.11 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 Russian Federation 2.40 2.18 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Slovenia 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.77 1.83 1.89 1.95 2.01 2.06 Spain 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.57 1.68 1.78 1.88 1.97 2.05 Sweden 1.90 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Switzerland 1.65 1.75 1.80 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.06 Tajikistan 5.10 4.80 4.20 3.60 3.07 2.61 2.22 2.09 2.07 Turkmenistan 4.35 3.79 3.23 2.85 2.51 2.22 2.11 2.09 2.08 United Kingdom 1.82 1.92 1.94 1.96 1.98 2.00 2.02 2.04 2.06 Ukraine 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Uzbekistan 4.29 3.79 3.30 2.89 2.52 2.21 2.09 2.08 2.07 Yugoslavia 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.09 Other Europe 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 Oceania 2.46 2.45 2.37 2.31 2.25 2.18 2.11 2.09 2.10 Australia 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.89 1.92 1.96 1.99 2.03 2.06 fiji 3.25 2.87 2.53 2.23 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.09 French PoLynesia 3.55 3.18 2.81 2.48 2.19 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Guam 2.90 2.53 2.20 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 Kiribati 4.40 4.05 3.70 3.35 2.95 2.60 2.29 2.17 2.14 Hicronesia, Fed. States of 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.58 2.21 2.08 2.07 New Caledonia 3.12 2.65 2.25 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 New Zealand 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.07 Papua New Guinea 5.25 4.95 4.35 3.75 3.21 2.75 2.35 2.21 2.19 Solomon Islands 5.80 5.50 4.80 4.10 3.40 2.95 2.55 2.21 2.09 Tonga 4.24 3.78 3.31 2.89 2.52 2.20 2.09 2.08 2.08 Vanuatu 5.83 5.53 4.93 4.33 3.73 3.13 2.78 2.46 2.19 Western Samoa 4.84 4.54 3.94 3.34 2.91 2.54 2.21 2.10 2.08 Other Micronesia 4.50 4.00 3.49 3.00 2.58 2.22 2.09 2.08 2.08 Other Polynesia 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.58 2.22 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 XlIV INTRODUCTION Table 13. Esdmates and Projecnons of Life Expectancy at Birth for All Countries and E:conomies, 1985-90 to 2025-30, Males and Females Combined (ears) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 World 64.9 66.1 67.3 68.6 69.6 70.6 71.7 72.9 74.1 Africa 52.8 53.8 55.1 56.3 57.7 59.2 60.8 62.4 64.2 East Africa 52.0 52.3 53.1 53.7 55.2 56.8 58.5 60.3 62.2 Botswana 66.7 67.8 69.1 70.0 70.9 71.9 72.9 73.9 75.0 Burundi 47.2 46.5 46.9 47.0 48.8 50.7 52.8 54.9 57.2 Comoros 54.0 56.1 58.3 60.6 62.3 64.0 65.8 67.7 69.6 DJibouti 47.0 49.4 51.8 53.7 55.3 57.0 58.8 60.6 62.5 Ethiopia 47.1 48.6 50.4 52.1 53.7 55.4 57.1 58.9 60.8 Kenya 58.5 59.2 59.7 59.9 61.4 62.9 64.5 66.2 68.0 Lesotho 55.1 56.8 58.8 60.8 62.1 63.4 64.9 66.3 67.9 Madagascar 50.3 51.4 52.9 54.5 55.9 57.5 59.1 60.8 62.5 Nalawi 47.1 46.0 46.0 45.8 47.7 49.8 51.9 54.2 56.6 Mauritius 68.9 70.4 72.2 73.4 74.2 74.9 75.7 76.6 77.4 Mozambique 46.5 46.8 47.9 49.0 50.7 52.5 54.5 56.5 58.6 Namibia 56.2 58.4 60.2 61.6 62.9 64.4 65.8 67.4 69.0 Reunion 71.1 72.8 74.5 76.0 76.9 77.7 78.6 79.6 80.6 Rwanda 48.8 47.7 47.9 47.6 49.5 51.5 53.6 55.8 58.1 Seychelles 69.7 71.4 73.1 74.6 75.5 76.5 77.5 78.5 79.7 Somalia 47.3 48.8 50.5 52.3 53.9 55.6 57.3 59.1 61.0 South Africa 60.5 62.9 65.2 67.0 68.1 69.2 70.4 71.6 72.8 Swaziland 55.5 57.2 59.1 60.9 62.2 63.6 65.1 66.5 68.1 Tanzania 48.3 47.0 46.9 46.5 48.3 50.3 52.4 54.6 56.9 Uganda 48.3 46.0 45.3 44.1 46.1 48.2 50.4 52.7 55.3 Zaire 52.0 52.0 52.8 53.6 55.3 57.0 58.9 60.8 62.8 Zambia 52.7 47.8 47.3 46.1 48.1 50.3 52.5 55.0 57.7 Zimbabwe 62.3 59.9 59.6 59.6 61.2 62.9 64.7 66.6 68.6 Other East Africa 54.0 56.2 58.5 60.8 62.5 64.2 66.0 67.8 69.7 West Africa 50.0 51.5 53.1 54.6 56.1 57.7 59.4 61.1 63.0 Angola 44.5 46.8 49.1 51.1 52.8 54.6 56.4 58.2 60.2 Benin 50.3 50.6 50.8 50.2 52.0 53.9 55.9 57.9 60.1 Burkina Faso 47.2 47.9 48.8 49.4 51.1 52.9 54.8 56.8 58.9 Cameroon 56.2 57.5 58.9 60.0 61.4 62.9 64.4 65.9 67.6 Cape Verde 66.0 66.7 67.4 67.9 68.9 70.0 71.2 72.4 73.6 Central African Rep. 49.9 49.0 49.2 49.2 51.0 52.9 54.9 57.0 59.3 Chad 45.5 48.1 50.8 53.3 54.9 56.5 58.2 60.0 61.8 Congo, People's Rep. of the 52.6 53.3 54.6 55.8 57.5 59.2 61.0 62.8 64.8 Cote d'ivoire 55.8 55.0 55.3 55.5 57.1 58.8 60.6 62.5 64.5 Equatorial Guinea 45.4 47.7 49.9 51.8 53.5 55.2 57.0 58.9 60.9 Gabon 52.4 54.0 55.9 57.7 59.2 60.8 62.3 64.0 65.7 Gambia, The 43.4 44.8 46.2 47.6 49.3 51.1 53.0 54.9 56.9 Ghana 54.0 55.1 56.6 57.9 59.4 60.9 62.5 64.1 65.8 Guinea 42.5 43.9 45.5 47.2 48.8 50.6 52.4 54.3 56.3 Guinea-Bissau 39.0 38.7 39.2 39.3 41.1 43.0 45.1 47.2 49.5 Liberia 53.1 55.1 57.0 58.5 60.0 61.5 63.1 64.8 66.5 Mali 47.2 48.4 49.9 51.4 53.1 54.8 56.6 58.5 60.4 Mauritania 45.9 47.1 48.6 50.2 51.8 53.5 55.3 57.1 59.0 Niger 44.5 46.2 48.0 49.8 s1.4 53.2 55.0 56.9 58.8 Nfgeria 48.4 50.2 52.2 54.0 55.5 57.2 58.9 60.6 62.5 Sao Tome and Princlpe 65.5 67.6 69.7 71.6 72.7 73.9 75.1 76.3 77.5 Senegal 46.6 47.7 49.1 50.4 52.0 53.7 55.5 57.4 59.4 Sierra Leone 40.9 42.8 44.8 46.6 48.3 50.1 51.9 53.9 55.9 Togo 53.0 54.1 55.4 56.5 58.0 59.6 61.3 63.0 6"8 Other West Africa 60.4 63.1 65.6 68.0 70.0 72.2 74.5 77.0 79.7 North Africa 59.0 60.8 62.7 64.6 66.0 67.4 68.9 70.5 72.1 Algeria 64.0 66.4 68.6 70.8 72.0 73.2 74.5 75.8 77.1 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 59.0 61.0 63.1 65.2 66.7 68.3 69.9 71.5 73.2 INTRODUCTION xlv Table 13. Life Expectancy at Binh (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Libya 60.8 63.5 66.0 68.4 69.7 71.0 72.4 73.8 75.3 Morocco 60.8 62.5 64.3 66.3 67.7 69.2 70.7 72.3 73.9 Sudan 49.7 50.8 52.1 53.3 54.9 56.6 58.3 60.1 62.0 Tunisia 65.7 67.4 69.2 70.9 72.1 73.3 74.6 75.9 77.3 Other North Africa 47.5 49.5 51.7 54.1 55.9 57.9 59.9 61.9 64.1 America 70.3 71.6 72.9 74.2 75.1 76.0 77.0 78.0 79.1 Latin America and Caribbean 66.8 68.4 70.0 71.6 72.7 73.8 75.0 76.2 77.5 Antigua and Barbuda 73.1 74.2 75.4 76.5 77.3 78.2 79.0 80.0 80.9 Argentina 70.6 71.7 72.9 74.2 75.1 76.1 77.2 78.3 79.4 Bahamas, The 67.9 69.6 71.3 73.0 74.0 75.1 76.2 77.4 78.6 Barbados 74.3 75.6 ?6.9 78.1 78.8 79.5 80.2 81.0 81.8 Belize 66.7 68.7 70.6 72.4 73.5 74.6 75.8 77.0 78.2 Bolivia 58.8 60.7 62.7 64.8 66.2 67.7 69.2 70.7 72.4 Brazil 64.9 67.1 69.1 71.1 72.2 73.4 74.7 75.9 77.3 Chile 71.5 72.3 73.3 74.4 75.3 76.3 77.3 78.4 79.6 Cotombia 68.2 69.2 70.4 71.7 72.8 74.0 75.2 76.5 77.8 Costa Rica 74.6 75.5 76.4 77.4 78.2 78.9 79.8 80.6 81.5 Cuba 75.2 76.3 77.3 78.4 79.1 79.8 80.5 81.2 82.0 Dominica 74.1 75.4 76.7 77.9 78.6 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 Dominican Rep. 66.0 67.7 69.5 71.2 72.4 73.6 74.8 76.1 77.4 Ecuador 65.5 66.5 67.9 69.3 70.6 71.9 73.2 74.6 76.1 El Salvador 62.2 64.5 66.8 69.0 70.3 71.6 72.9 74.3 75.8 Grenada 68.6 70.5 72.3 74.0 75.0 76.0 77.0 78.1 79.3 Guadeloupe 73.5 75.0 76.4 77.6 78.4 79.1 79.9 80.8 81.6 Guatemala 62.0 63.9 65.8 67.8 69.1 70.5 71.9 73.4 74.9 Guyana 63.2 64.8 66.6 68.4 69.7 71.0 72.4 73.9 75.4 Haiti 54.0 54.6 54.2 53.2 55.0 56.8 58.7 60.7 62.9 Honduras 64.0 65.5 67.1 68.8 70.1 71.4 72.8 74.2 75.7 Jamaica 72.6 73.6 74.7 75.9 76.7 77.6 78.6 79.5 80.6 Martinique 75.3 76.6 77.9 79.0 79.7 80.3 81.0 81.7 82.4 Nexico 68.9 70.2 71.6 73.0 74.1 75.2 76.3 77.5 78.7 Montserrat 69.8 71.7 73.4 75.0 75.9 76.9 77.8 78.9 79.9 Netherlands Antilles 76.0 77.6 79.0 80.2 80.7 81.3 81.9 82.4 83.0 Nicaraguw 63.3 65.7 68.0 70.2 71.4 72.7 74.0 75.3 76.8 Panama 72.1 73.1 74.2 75.3 76.2 77.2 78.1 79.2 80.2 Paraguay 66.9 67.6 68.6 69.8 71.0 n.2 73.5 74.9 76.4 Peru 61.4 63.6 65.8 67.9 69.2 70.6 72.0 73.5 75.0 St. Kitts and Nevis 68.5 70.4 72.3 74.0 75.0 76.0 77.1 78.2 79.3 St. Lucia 70.5 72.2 73.9 75.5 76.3 77.3 78.2 79.2 80.2 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 69.2 71.1 72.9 74.5 75.4 76.4 77.4 78.5 79.6 Suriname 66.7 68.6 70.6 72.4 73.4 74.6 75.7 76.9 78.2 Trinidad and Tobago 70.2 71.6 73.0 74.4 75.4 76.4 77.4 78.5 79.6 Uruguay 72.0 73.7 75.2 76.7 77.5 78.3 79.2 80.1 81.0 Venezuela 69.r 70.4 71.5 72.6 73.7 74.8 75.9 77.1 78.4 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 73.1 74.8 76.3 77.8 78.5 79.3 80.0 80.8 81.7 Other Latin America 66.5 68.1 69.6 70.9 71.4 71.9 72.5 73.0 73.5 Northern America 75.7 76.7 77.8 78.8 79.5 80.2 80.9 81.6 82.3 Canada 76.7 77.8 79.0 80.0 80.5 81.1 81.7 82.3 82.9 Puerto Rico 74.9 76.3 77.5 78.7 79.4 80.1 80.8 81.5 82.3 United States of America 75.4 76.5 77.5 78.6 79.2 79.9 80.6 81.4 82.1 Other Northern America 69.7 71.0 72.1 73.1 73.5 73.8 74.1 74.5 74.9 Asia 63.9 65.3 66.9 68.5 69.6 70.8 72.1 73.5 74.9 East and Southeast Asia 68.4 69.8 71.2 7.7 73.7 74.7 75.8 77.0 78.3 Brurei 74.4 76.2 77.8 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.0 81.7 82.4 Cambodia 48.4 51.6 54.9 58.0 59.8 61.6 63.5 65.4 67.5 China (excluding Taiwan) 69.5 70.6 71.9 73.3 74.3 75.4 76.5 77.7 78.9 XIVI INTRODUCTION Table 13. Life Epectancy at Birth (continued) Country, economly, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Taiwan, China 74.0 74.9 75.9 77.0 77.8 78.6 79.4 80.3 81.2 Hong Kong 77.0 78.2 79.3 80.3 80.8 81.4 81.9 82.5 83.1 Irdonesia 60.2 63.0 65.6 68.1 69.4 70.7 72.1 73.6 75.2 Japan 78.2 79.2 80.2 81.1 81.6 82.1 82.6 83.1 83.6 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of 69.4 71.3 73.1 74.8 75.7 76.7 77.7 78.7 79.8 Korea, Rep. of 69.3 70.8 72.4 74.0 74.9 75.9 77.0 78.1 79.3 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 48.5 50.2 52.1 54.2 56.1 58.0 59.9 62.0 64.2 Macao 70.8 73.1 75.1 76.8 77.6 78.4 79.3 80.2 81.1 Malaysia 69.2 70.5 71.8 73.2 74.2 75.3 76.4 77.6 78.8 MongoLia 61.2 63.5 65.7 67.9 69.2 70.6 72.0 73.5 75.0 Myarimar 60.0 62.4 64.7 66.9 68.3 69.8 71.3 72.8 74.5 Philippines 63.4 65.0 66.6 68.3 69.6 70.9 72.3 73.8 75.3 Singapore 73.5 74.8 76.1 77.3 78.0 78.8 79.6 80.5 81.4 Thaitand 65.0 66.9 68.8 70.7 71.8 73.0 74.3 75.6 77.0 Viet Nam 65.8 67.1 68.6 70.1 71.3 72.6 73.8 75.2 76.6 South Asia 57.0 58.7 60.6 62.5 64.1 65.6 67.3 69.0 70.8 Afghanistan 41.5 42.2 43.4 44.9 46.7 48.7 50.7 52.8 55.1 Bangladesh 50.8 52.1 53.8 55.8 57.6 59.5 61.4 63.4 65.5 Bhutan 47.9 49.1 50.7 52.5 54.4 56.3 58.3 60.4 62.6 India 57.9 59.8 61.8 63.9 65.4 66.9 68.5 70.2 71.9 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 62.0 63.6 65.3 67.1 68.5 69.9 71.4 72.9 74.5 Matdives 60.4 62.5 64.5 66.6 68.0 69.5 71.0 72.5 74.2 NepaL 51.0 52.6 54.6 56.8 58.5 60.4 62.3 64.3 66.3 Pakistan 55.0 56.3 57.9 59.7 61.4 63.2 65.0 66.9 68.8 Sri Lanka 70.3 71.6 73.0 74.4 75.3 76.3 77.3 78.4 79.6 Southwest Asia 64.1 65.3 67.2 68.8 69.9 71.0 72.2 73.5 74.9 Bahrain 68.3 69.6 71.0 72.5 73.6 74.7 75.8 77.1 78.3 Cyprus 75.7 76.9 78.1 79.1 79.8 80.4 81.1 81.8 82.5 Gaza Strip 63.0 64.9 66.9 68.9 70.1 71.4 72.8 74.2 75.8 Iraq 63.9 62.4 66.5 68.1 69.4 70.8 72.2 73.7 75.2 Israet 75.6 76.6 77.6 78.6 79.3 80.0 80.7 81.4 82.1 Jordan (East Bank) 65.9 68.1 70.1 72.0 73.1 74.2 75.4 76.7 77.9 Kuwait 73.3 74.7 76.0 77.3 78.0 78.8 79.6 80.5 81.4 Lebanon 65.0 65.7 66.8 68.1 69.4 70.7 72.1 73.6 75.2 Oman 63.9 66.8 69.3 71.6 72.7 73.8 75.0 76.3 77.7 Qatar 69.3 70.8 72.4 74.0 74.9 76.0 77.0 78.1 79.3 Saudi Arabia 63.4 65.2 67.0 68.8 70.1 71.4 72.8 74.2 75.7 Syrian Arab Rep. 65.0 66.8 68.7 70.5 71.7 73.0 74.2 75.6 76.9 Turkey 65.6 67.3 69.0 70.8 72.0 73.2 74.4 75.7 77.1 United Arab Emirates 70.7 72.0 73.4 74.8 75.7 76.7 77.7 78.8 79.9 West Bank 65.9 67.4 69.1 70.7 71.8 73.1 74.3 75.6 77.0 Yemen, Rep. of 47.8 48.9 50.3 52.1 53.9 55.8 57.9 60.0 62.2 Europe and C.I.S. 73.1 74.4 75.7 76.9 77.6 78.4 79.2 80.1 81.0 Albania 71.7 72.8 74.0 75.2 76.1 77.1 78.1 79.1 80.1 Armenia 71.5 73.1 74.6 76.0 76.9 77.7 78.7 79.6 80.6 Austria 75.1 76.6 77.9 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.1 81.8 82.5 Azerbaijan 70.0 71.6 73.2 74.6 75.5 76.5 77.5 78.6 79.7 Belarus 72.1 73.7 75.1 76.4 77.3 78.1 79.0 79.9 80.9 Belgium 75.4 76.8 78.0 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.1 81.8 82.5 Butgaria 2.o 73.1 74.2 75.5 76.3 77.2 78.2 79.2 80.3 Channel Islands 76.2 77.4 78.5 79.5 80.1 80.7 81.4 82.0 82.7 Czechoslovakia 71.2 71.8 72.7 73.7 74.7 75.7 76.8 77.9 79.1 Croatia 71.6 73.5 75.3 76.8 77.6 78.4 79.3 80.2 81.1 Demnark 74.8 75.6 76.5 77.5 78.2 79.0 79.8 80.6 81.5 Estonia 69.9 71.9 73.7 75.4 76.3 77.2 78.1 79.1 80.2 finland 74.9 76.1 77.2 78.3 79.0 79.7 80.4 81.2 82.0 France 76.1 77.3 78.5 79.5 80.1 80.8 81.4 82.0 82.7 INTRODUCTION XIVii Table 13. Life Expectancy at B,th (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Georgfa 71.5 73.0 74.4 75.8 76.7 77.6 78.5 79.5 80.5 Germany 75.3 76.8 78.2 79.4 80.0 80.7 81.3 82.0 82.6 Greece 76.4 77.6 78.7 79.8 80.4 81.0 81.6 82.2 82.8 Hungary 70.2 71.0 72.1 73.3 74.3 75.3 76.4 77.6 78.8 Iceland 77.5 78.4 79.2 80.1 80.6 81.2 81.8 82.4 83.0 Ireland 73.8 74.7 75.8 76.9 77.7 78.5 79.3 80.2 81.2 Italy 76.8 77.9 78.9 79.9 80.4 81.0 81.6 82.2 82.9 Kazakhstan 67.4 69.1 70.7 72.4 73.4 74.5 75.6 76.8 78.0 Kyrgyzstan 68.0 69.3 70.8 72.2 73.3 74.4 75.5 76.7 78.0 Latvia 69.9 71.9 73.7 75.4 76.2 77.1 78.1 79.1 80.1 Lithuania 71.1 73.0 74.8 76.3 77.1 78.0 78.9 79.8 80.8 Luxembourg 74.3 75.4 76.4 77.5 78.2 79.0 79.8 80.7 81.5 Malta 72.7 73.8 75.0 76.2 77.0 77.9 78.8 79.7 80.7 Moldova 68.1 69.5 71.0 72.5 73.6 74.6 75.8 77.0 78.2 Netherlands 76.6 77.4 78.2 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.0 81.7 82.5 Norway 76.8 77.6 78.5 79.4 80.1 80.7 81.3 82.0 82.7 Poland 70.9 71.5 72.3 73.3 74.3 75.4 76.5 77.6 78.9 Portugal 74.1 75.5 76.7 77.9 78.7 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 Romenia 69.2 69.8 70.8 71.9 73.0 74.1 75.3 76.5 77.9 Russian Federation 70.1 72.2 74.0 75.7 76.5 77.4 78.4 79.3 80.3 Slovenia 72.3 74.2 75.8 77;4 78.1 78.9 79.7 80.6 81.5 Spafn 75.9 76.4 77.1 78.0 78.7 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 Sweden 77.1 77.9 78.8 79.6 80.2 80.8 81.4 82.1 82.7 Switzerland 77.3 78.4 79.5 80.4 81.0 81.5 82.1 82.6 83.2 Tajikistan 68.4 69.6 70.9 72.3 73.4 74.5 75.7 76.9 78.1 Turkmenistan 64.8 66.4 68.1 69.8 71.0 72.3 73.6 74.9 76.3 United Kingdom 75.0 76.0 77.0 78.1 78.8 79.5 80.3 81.0 81.8 Ukraine 71.7 73.0 74.3 75.7 76.5 77.4 78.4 79.3 80.4 Uzbekistan 67.9 69.3 70.8 72.3 73.4 74.5 75.6 76.8 78.1 Yugoslavia 70.4 72.0 73.6 75.1 76.0 77.0 78.0 79.0 80.1 Other Europe 74.9 75.3 75.7 76.0 76.1 76.3 76.4 76.5 76.7 Oceania 71.9 72.9 73.9 74.9 75.7 76.4 77.3 78.2 79.1 Australia 76.1 77.1 78.1 79.0 79.7 80.3 81.0 81.7 82.4 FfJi 63.8 65.3 67.0 68.7 69.9 71.2 72.6 74.1 75.6 French Polynesia 71.7 73.1 74.5 75.8 76.7 77.6 78.5 79.5 80.5 GUaM 72.1 73.4 74.8 76.1 77.0 77.8 78.7 79.7 80.7 Kiribati 53.9 56.0 58.2 60.5 62.1 63.8 65.6 67.5 69.5 Micronesia, Fed. States of 70.0 70.8 71.9 73.1 74.1 75.2 76.3 77.5 78.7 New CaLedonia 67.9 69.8 71.7 73.4 74.4 75.4 76.5 77.7 78.9 New Zealand 74.8 75.8 76.9 78.0 78.7 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 Papua New Guinea 53.9 55.2 56.9 58.7 60.3 62.1 63.9 65.9 68.0 Solomon Islands 63.3 65.3 67.4 69.4 70.6 71.9 73.3 74.6 76.1 Tonga 65.7 67.9 69.9 71.9 73.0 74.1 75.3 76.6 77.9 Vanuatu 63.4 65.2 67.2 69.0 70.3 71.6 73.0 74.4 75.8 Western Samoa 65.4 66.6 68.0 69.5 70.8 72.0 73.4 74.7 76.2 Other Micronesia 66.9 68.6 70.3 72.0 73.1 74.2 7j.4 76.7 78.0 Other Polynesia 69.7 71.3 72.8 74.3 75.3 76.3 77.3 78.4 79.5 XlVIII INTRODUCTION Table 14. Estimates and Projections of Infant Mortality Rate for All Counties and Economies, 1985-90 to 2025-30 (per thousand live births) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 199S-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-16 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 World 69 62 56 SO 45 40 35 29 24 Africa 105 98 89 79 74 68 62 56 49 East Africa 109 104 97 87 80 74 68 62 55 Botswana 42 35 29 24 22 20 18 16 14 Burundi 110 105 96 84 78 73 67 61 55 Comoros 99 87 75 63 57 50 44 37 31 DJibouti 122 111 99 87 80 73 67 60 53 Ethiopia 137 128 117 105 97 89 81 73 65 Kenya 72 64 56 49 44 40 36 31 27 Lesotho 100 89 78 66 60 54 48 43 37 Madagascar 120 113 103 91 84 77 70 63 56 Malawi 150 149 143 133 122 112 101 90 80 Mauritius 23 19 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 Mozambique 141 135 125 112 104 95 86 78 69 Namibia 106 96 86 75 68 61 54 47 40 Reunion 14 12 10 8 8 7 6 5 4 Rwanda 122 119 111 100 92 84 77 69 61 Seychelles 18 16 14 11 10 9 7 6 5 Somalia 132 122 109 97 89 82 75 68 61 South Africa 72 61 52 43 39 35 31 27 23 Swaziland 118 108 97 85 77 69 61 54 46 Tanzania 115 115 108 98 91 84 76 69 62 Uganda 115 118 113 103 96 88 80 72 65 Zaire 98 91 81 70 64 58 53 47 41 Zambia 80 84 84 73 67 61 54 48 42 Zimbabie 52 47 43 36 32 29 26 23 20 other East Africa 99 87 75 63 S7 50 44 37 30 West Africa 113 103 93 82 76 70 64 58 52 Angola 137 125 112 99 92 85 77 70 63 Benin 116 111 104 95 87 79 72 64 57 surkina Faso 138 132 123 112 104 95 87 78 69 Cameroon 94 85 74 64 58 52 47 41 35 Cape Verde 44 39 33 28 26 23 21 18 16 Central African Rep. 104 99 90 80 74 68 62 56 50 Chad 132 120 107 94 87 80 73 65 58 Congo, People's Rep. of the 119 114 104 94 85 77 69 60 52 Cote d'ivoire 96 94 86 75 69 62 55 48 42 Equatorial Cuinea 127 116 104 92 85 78 71 64 58 Gabon 103 93 81 69 63 57 51 46 40 Gambia, The 143 132 120 107 100 92 85 78 70 Ghana 90 81 71 61 56 51 46 40 35 Guinea 145 133 121 107 100 94 87 80 73 Guinea-Bissau 151 147 138 126 118 111 104 97 90 Liberia 142 132 120 108 98 88 78 68 S8 Mali 169 164 157 149 136 124 112 100 87 Mauritania 127 117 106 93 87 80 74 68 61 Niger 135 123 111 98 91 84 77 71 64 Nigeria 105 94 83 71 66 61 56 51 46 Sao Tome and Principe 74 65 56 46 38 30 22 14 6 Senegal 87 76 66 56 52 49 46 43 40 Sierra Leone 154 142 130 117 109 102 94 86 78 Togo 94 84 74 63 S8 53 48 42 37 Other West Africa 72 61 51 42 34 27 19 12 4 North Africa 80 70 60 51 45 40 34 28 22 Algeria 74 62 51 41 35 28 21 14 7 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 73 61 51 41 37 32 27 22 18 INTRODUCilON XlIX Table 14. Infant Mortality Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Libya 82 69 57 47 40 32 25 18 11 Morocco 73 63 53 44 38 33 27 21 15 Sudan 108 99 88 76 71 65 60 54 48 Tunisia 50 41 33 27 23 19 15 11 7 Other North Africa 120 106 93 80 74 69 64 58 53 America 42 36 31 25 22 18 14 10 7 Latin America and Caribbean 53 46 39 32 27 23 18 13 8 Antigua and Barbuda 22 18 14 12 10 9 7 5 4 Argentina 32 27 23 18 16 13 10 7 5 Bahamas, The 28 23 19 15 13 11 9 7 5 Barbados 12 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 Belize 50 41 33 27 23 19 14 10 6 Botivia 98 88 76 65 56 48 39 30 21 Brazil 63 54 45 37 31 25 19 13 7 Chile 18 16 13 11 10 8 7 6 4 Coloambia 40 36 30 25 21 17 14 10 6 Costa Rica 18 16 13 11 9 8 6 5 3 Cuba 13 11 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 Dominica 18 15 13 11 9 8 6 5 3 Dominican Rep. 61 53 44 36 30 24 18 12 6 Ecuador 58 53 45 38 32 26 20 14 8 El Salvador 59 49 40 33 28 23 19 14 10 Grenada 34 29 24 19 16 13 11 8 5 Guadeloupe 16 14 12 10 9 7 6 5 3 Guatemala 68 58 49 40 34 28 23 17 11 Guyana 56 48 40 33 28 24 19 15 10 Haiti 97 93 87 79 72 65 58 51 44 Honduras 69 61 52 44 37 30 23 16 9 Jamaica 17 15 13 11 9 8 7 5 4 Martinique 11 9 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 Mexico 43 37 30 25 21 17 13 9 5 Montserrat 32 28 23 19 16 13 10 7 4 Netherlands Antilles 14 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 Nicaragua 62 51 41 33 28 23 18 12 7 Panama 23 19 16 13 11 10 8 6 4 Paraguay 34 30 26 21 19 16 13 10 8 Peru 76 65 54 45 38 31 24 17 11 St. Kitts and Nevis 40 34 28 23 19 16 12 8 5 St. Lucia 21 17 14 12 10 9 7 6 4 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 25 20 16 13 12 10 8 6 5 Suriname 42 37 31 25 21 17 14 10 6 Trinidad and Tobago 28 23 19 15 13 11 9 7 4 Uruguay 24 18 15 12 10 9 7 5 4 Vr ezuela 36 33 28 23 20 16 13 9 5 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 19 17 14 12 10 8 7 5 3 Other Latin America 43 35 28 23 21 20 19 17 16 Northern America 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 Canada 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3- 3 Puerto Rico 14 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 Other Northern America 19 16 13 11 11 11 10 10 10 sia 70 62 54 47 42 36 30 24 18 East and Southeast Asia 39 32 26 21 18 15 13 10 7 Brunei 10 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Cambodia 130 108 89 74 67 60 53 46 39 China (excluding Taiwan) 32 27 22 18 1S 13 10 8 5 I INTRODUCTION Table 14. Infant Mortaty Rate (continued) Country, economy, or regfon 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Taiwan, China 17 15 13 11 9 8 6 5 4 Hong Kong 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 Indonesfa 71 55 43 34 29 25 20 15 10 Japan 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Korea, Dem. Peopltes Rep. of 28 24 20 17 14 12 9 7 4 Korea, Rep. of 20 15 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 Lao PeopLe's Dem. Rep. 110 98 85 72 68 64 60 56 52 Macao 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 MaLaysia 18 15 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 MongoLia 68 58 48 39 34 28 22 16 10 Mya8mar 70 60 50 41 36 30 25 20 15 Philippines 45 38 31 26 23 19 16 13 10 Singapore 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 ThaiLard 31 25 20 16 14 13 11 9 7 VIetNam 46 39 32 26 23 19 15 11 7 South Asia 102 93 82 71 63 54 46 37 28 Afghanistan 172 168 161 153 141 129 118 106 94 Bangladesh 110 101 90 78 71 65 59 53 46 Bhutan 127 119 109 97 89 81 74 66 59 India 98 88 76 65 57 48 39 31 22 Iran, Istamic Rep. of 93 85 75 64 54 43 33 22 11 Matdives 77 65 55 45 39 32 26 20 14 Nepat 127 117 106 93 83 73 63 53 43 Pakfstan 107 100 90 79 69 60 51 42 33 Srf Lanka 22 18 14 12 10 9 7 6 4 Southwest Asia 69 62 54 46 41 36 30 25 19 Bahrafn 35 30 25 20 17 14 11 8 5 Cyprus 12 9 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 Gaza Strip 59 48 39 32 27 22 18 13 9 Iraq 69 63 55 46 39 32 24 17 In Israel 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 Jordan (East Bank) 57 47 39 31 26 21 16 11 6 Kuwait 16 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 Lebanon 48 44 39 32 28 24 19 15 10 Oman 40 29 22 17 15 13 11 8 6 Qatar 31 25 20 17 14 12 9 7 5 Saudi Arabia 71 61 52 43 36 29 22 16 9 Syrian Arab Rep. 48 39 32 25 22 18 14 11 7 Turkey 65 56 47 39 32 26 19 13 7 United Arab Emfrates 26 21 17 14 12 10 8 6 4 West Bank 50 44 36 30 25 21 16 11 7 Yemen, Rep. of 128 121 111 99 91 84 76 68 61 Europe and C.I.S. 18 15 13 11 9 8 7 5 4 Albania 28 30 25 20 17 14 11 7 4 Armenia 22 18 15 12 11 9 7 6 4 Austria 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 AzerbaIjan 28 23 19 16 14 11 9 7 5 Belarus 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Belgjum 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 Bulgaria 15 14 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 Channer l lands 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 CzechoslovakIa 13 11 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 Croatfa 15 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 Dernark 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 Estonfa 15 13 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 finLand 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 France 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 INTRODUCTION i1 Table 14. Infant Mortality Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Georgia 22 18 14 12 10 9 7 6 4 Germany 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Greece 13 11 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 Hungary 17 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 Iceiand 7 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Ireland 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 Italy 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 Kazakhstan 27 23 19 16 14 12 10 9 7 Kyrgyzstan 34 29 24 20 17 14 12 9 7 Latvia 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 Lithuania 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 Luxembourg 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 Matta 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 Moldova 24 19 15 12 11 10 8 7 6 Netherlands 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 Norway 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 Poland 18 16 13 11 10 9 8 6 5 Portugal 14 11 9 7 r 6 5 4 3 Romania 25 27 23 19 16 14 11 9 6 Russian Federation 19 16 13 11 10 8 7 6 4 Slovenia 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 Spain 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 Sweden 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 Switzerland 7 7 6 5 S 4 4 3 3 Tajikistan 47 42 35 29 24 20 15 10 6 Turkmenfstan 54 50 43 36 31 26 21 16 10 United Kingdom 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 Ukraine 15 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 Uzbekistan 39 34 28 23 20 16 13 9 6 Yugostavis 28 23 19 16 13 11 9 6 4 Other Europe 14 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 Oceanfa 27 24 20 16 15 15 14 13 12 Australia 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Fiji 27 22 18 15 14 13 12 11 10 French Polynesia 23 19 15 12 11 9 7 6 4 Guam 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 Kfirfbat 62 53 45 37 36 35 33 32 31 Micronesia, Fed. States of 28 25 21 17 15 12 10 8 5 New Caledonia 36 29 24 19 16 14 11 8 5 New Zealand 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 Papua New Cuinea 63 54 45 37 37 37 37 37 36 Solomon Islands 53 44 35 29 24 20 16 12 8 Tonga 27 19 15 12 11 9 8 7 6 Vanuatu 75 65 55 46 39 31 24 16 9 Western Samoa 50 44 37 31 26 22 17 13 9 Other Micronesia 32 26 21 17 15 13 10 8 6 Other Polynesia 26 21 17 14 12 10 8 6 5 III INTRODUCTION Table 15. Stationary Population, Momentum, and Year that Net Reproduction Rate Reaches I for All Countries and Economies Statlohary Ratfo Popu- Year Stationary Ratio Popu- Year population to lation when population to lation when (millions) 1990 momentun NRRu1 (millions) 1990 momentun NRR=1 World 12186 2.3 1.4 2060 North Africa 425 3.0 1.6 2050 Algeria 78 3.1 1.7 2020 Africa 3028 4.7 1.5 2055 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 120 2.3 1.5 2015 Libya 35 7.8 1.6 2050 East Africa 1498 5.5 1.5 2055 Morocco 69 2.8 1.6 2020 Botswana 4 2.9 1.8 2015 Sudan 101 4.0 1.5 2035 Burundi 32 5.9 1.5 2045 Tunisia 18 2.2 1.6 2010 Comoros 3 5.4 1.6 2035 Other North Africa 1 4.9 1.4 2040 Djibouti 2 4.9 1.4 2040 Ethiopia 417 8.1 1.5 2PI0 America 1311 1.8 1.4 2035 Kenya 124 5.1 1.7 2035 Lesotho 6 3.4 1.5 2025 Latin America and Carib. 938 2.1 1.5 2035 Madagascar 45 3.9 1.5 2030 Antigua and Barbuda 0 1.8 1.7 2030 Malawi 62 7.3 1.6 2050 Argentina 53 1.7 1.3 2005 Mauritius 2 1.4 1.4 2030 Bahamas, The 0 1.9 1.5 1990 Mozambique 96 6.1 1.4 2045 Barbados 0 1.2 1.3 2030 Namibia 7 4.0 1.6 2030 BeLize 1 3.1 1.8 2020 Reunion 1 1.8 1.5 1995 Bolivia 21 2.9 1.6 2020 Rwanda 65 9.1 1.6 2055 Brazil 304 2.0 1.5 2005 Seychelles 0 1.8 1.6 2005 Chile 23 1.7 1.4 2000 Somalia 47 6.0 1.5 2045 Colombia 62 1.9 1.6 2000 South Africa 96 2.7 1.5 2020 Costa Rica 6 2.0 1.6 2005 Swaziland 4 5.1 1.7 2035 Cuba 14 1.3 1.3 2030 Tanzania 144 5.9 1.6 2045 Dominica 0 1.9 1.8 2000 Uganda 91 5.6 1.6 2045 Dominican Rep. 14 2.0 1.6 2005 Zaire 171 4.6 1.6 2035 Ecuador 24 2.3 1.6 2010 Zaobia 41 5.1 1.6 2040 El Salvador 13 2.5 1.7 2015 Zimbabwe 28 2.8 1.7 2015 Grenada 0 1.8 1.6 2005 Other East Africa 0 5.4 1.6 2035 Guadeloupe 1 1.5 1.4 1995 Guatemala 33 3.5 1.7 2025 West Africa 1105 4.7 1.5 2055 Guyana 1 1.7 1.5 2"00 Angola 61 6.1 1.4 2045 Haiti 19 3.0 1.5 2035 Benin 19 4.0 1.6 2035 Honduras 18 3.5 1.7 2025 Burkina Faso 48 5.3 1.5 2045 Jamaica 4 1.6 1.6 2000 Cameroon 53 4.5 1.6 2035 Martinique 1 1.4 1.3 1990 Cape Verde 1 3.8 1.8 2025 Mexico 184 2.1 1.7 2005 Central African Rep. 11 3.7 1.4 2035 Montserrat 0 1.5 1.4 2000 Chad 28 4.9 1.4 2040 Netherlands Antitles 0 1.6 1.5 1990 Congo, PeopLe's Rep. of 14 6.3 1.6 2045 Nicaragua 14 3.6 1.7 2025 Cote d'ivoire 63 5.3 1.6 2040 Panama 5 1.9 1.6 2000 Equatorial Guinea 2 3.6 1.3 2035 Paraguay 16 3.7 1.6 2030 Gabon 6 5.4 1.4 2045 Peru 50 2.3 1.5 2010 Gambia, The 5 5.6 1.4 2045 St. Kitts and Nevis 0 1.3 1.6 2000 Ghana 62 1.6 2030 St. Lucia 0 2.1 1.7 2005 Guinea 33 5.7 1.5 2045 St. Vincent & Grenadines 0 1.9 1.6 2000 Guinea-Bissau 4 1.3 2040 Suriname 1 2.2 1.6 2010 Liberia 11 1.6 2035 Trinidad and Tobago 2 1.7 1.5 2005 Mali 57 6.8 1.5 2050 Uruguay 4 1.4 1.2 1995 Mauritania 14 7.0 1.4 2050 Venezuela 45 2.3 1.6 2010 Niger 72 9.4 1.5 2055 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 0 1.7 1.5 1995 Nigeria 398 1.6 2035 Other Latin America 0 1.8 1.5 2000 Sao Tome and Principe 0 1.6 2025 Senegal 43 5.8 1.4 2045 Northern America 373 1.3 1.1 2030 Sierra Leone 23 1.3 2045 Canada 34 1.3 1.1 2030 Togo 17 4.8 1.6 2035 Puerto Rico 5 1.3 1.3 1995 Other West Africa 0 2.0 1.4 2005 United States of America 334 1.3 1.1 2030 Other Northern America 0 1.2 1.2 2030 INTRODUCTION 0ii Table 15. (continued) Stationary Ratfo Popu- Year Stationary Ratio Popu- Year population to lotfon when populoaton to lation when (millions) 1990 momentum hRR-I (mlltons) 1990 momentum NRR-1 Asia 6846 2.2 1.4 2060 Belgiuu 10 1.0 1.0 2030 Bulgaria 9 1.0 1.0 2030 East and Southeast Asia 3086 1.7 1.4 2040 Channel Islands 0 1.1 1.0 2030 BruneP, 1 2.4 1.5 2015 Czechoslovakia 19 1.2 1.1 2030 Cambodia 20 2.3 1.3 2015 Croatia 5 1.1 1.0 2030 China (excluding Taiwan) 1886 1.7 1.4 2000 Denrark 5 1.0 1.0 2030 Taiwan, China 27 1.3 1.4 2030 Estonia 2 1.3 1.0 1990 Hong Kong 7 1.2 1.2 2030 finland 5 1.1 1.0 2030 Indonesia 358 2.0 1.5 2005 France 63 1.1 1.1 2030 Japan 128 1.0 1.1 2030 Georgia 7 1.3 1.2 1990 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. 39 1.8 1.5 1995 Germany 80 1.0 1.0 2030 Korea, Rep. of 56 1.3 1.3 2030 Greece 10 1.0 1.1 2030 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 21 5.1 1.5 2040 Hungary 10 1.0 1.0 2030 Nacao 1 1.5 1.2 1990 Iceland 0 1.5 1.3 2030 Malaysia 44 2.5 1.6 2015 Ireland 4 1.3 1.3 1990 Mongolia 6 2.9 1.6 2020 Italy 55 1.0 1.0 2030 Nyarmar 96 2.3 1.5 20'0 Kazakhstan 28 1.7 1.3 2000 Philippines 137 2.2 1.5 2010 Kyrgyzstan 10 2.3 1.5 2015 Singapore 4 1.3 1.2 2030 Latvia 3 1.2 1.0 2030 Thailand 102 1.9 1.5 1995 Lithuania 5 1.3 1.1 2030 Viet NMm 159 2.4 1.6 2015 Luxembourg 0 1.0 1.0 2030 Malta 0 1.3 1.1 2030 South Asia 3232 2.7 1.5 2060 Noldova 7 1.7 1.3 2000 Afghanistan 127 6.2 1.4 2050 Netherlands 17 1.1 1.1 2030 Bangladesh 255 2.4 1.5 2015 Norway 5 1.1 1.1 2030 Shutan 5 3.7 1I4 2035 Poland 50 1.3 1.1 1990 India 1855 2.2 1.4 2015 Portugal 11 1.1 1.1 2030 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 490 8.8 1.7 2060 Romania 31 1.3 1.1 1990 Naldives 1 4.8 1.7 2035 Russian Federation 191 1.3 1.1 1995 Nepal 58 3.1 1.5 2025 Slovenia 2 1.1 1.1 2030 Pakistan 397 3.5 1.6 2030 Spain 40 1.0 1.1 2030 Sri Lanka 28 1.7 1.5 1995 Sweden 10 1.1 1.0 2030 Switzerland 7 1.1 1.0 2030 Southwest Asia 528 4.0 1.6 2055 Tajikistan 17 3.1 1.7 2020 Bahrain 2 3.2 1.4 2030 Turkmenistan 9 2.5 1.6 2015 Cyprus 1 1.4 1.2 1995 United Kingdom 64 1.1 1.0 2030 Gaza Strip 3 5.0 1.7 2035 Ukraine 63 1.2 1.0 1990 Iraq 85 4.5 1.7 2030 Uzbekistan 52 2.5 1.6 2015 Israel 10 2.1 1.4 2005 Yugoslavia 23 1.3 1.2 2030 Jordan (East Bank) 12 4.0 1.8 2025 Other Europe 0 1.3 1.1 1990 Kuwaft 4 2.0 1.5 2010 Lebanon 6 2.2 1.6 2015 Oceania 46 1.7 1.3 2035 Onmn 10 6.2 1.6 2040 Qatar 1 3.2 1.3 2030 Australia 34 1.4 1.2 2030 Saudi Arabia 89 6.0 1.6 2040 Fiji 1 1.7 1.5 2005 Syrian Arab Rep. 66 5.4 1.8 2035 French Polynesia 0 2.4 1.7 2010 Turkey 120 2.1 1.5 2010 Cuam 0 1.8 1.5 2000 United Arab Emirates 3 2.2 1.2 2020 Kiribetf 0 2.5 1.4 2020 West Bank 4 3.9 1.7 2025 Micronesi, Fed. States 0 3.0 1.7 2020 Yemen, Rep. of 109 9.7 1.5 2055 New Caledonia 0 1.9 1.5 2000 New Zealand 4 1.3 1.2 2030 Europe and C.I.S. 955 1.2 1.1 2030 Papua New CuGneo 11 2.9 1.4 2020 Solomon Islands 1 3.7 1.7 2035 Albania 6 1.9 1.5 2005 Tonga 0 2.1 1.5 2015 Armenia 5 1.S 1.3 1995 Vanuatu 1 3.8 1.7 2030 Austria 8 1.0 1.0 2030 Western Samoa 0 2.6 1.6 2020 Azerbaijan 12 1.7 1.4 2000 Other Micronesia 0 2.6 1.6 2015 Belarus 13 1.3 1.1 1990 Other Polynesia 0 2.4 1.7 2010 IIV INTRODUCTION Table 16. Population of Counties and Economies in the 'Other Categories Population Population Country or 1985 Country or 1985 economy (thousands) economy (thousands) Other West Africa 6.9 Other Europe 260.0 St. Helena 5.6 Andorra 45.0 Ascencion 1.0 Faeroe Islands 46.0 Tristan da Cunha 0.3 Gibraltar 29.0 Holy See 1.0 Other East Africa 60.8 Isle of Man 63.0 Mayotte 60.8 Liechtenstein 27.0 Nonaco 27.0 Other North Africa San Marino 22.0 Western Sahara 155.0 Other Micronesia 85.0 Other Latin America Johnston Island 1.0 and the Caribbean 194.0 MarshalL Islands 36.0 Anguilla 7.0 Midway Islands 2.0 Aruba 60.0 Northern Mariana Islands 20.0 British Virgin Islands 12.0 NrJru 8.0 Cayman Islands 22.0 Palau 16.0 Falkland Islands 2.0 Wake Island 2.0 French Guiana 83.0 Turks and Caicos Islands 8.0 Other Polynesia 80.1 America Samoa 36.0 Other Northern America 115.0 Cook Islands 18.0 Bermuda 56.0 Niue 3.0 Greenland 53.0 Pitcairn 0.1 St. Pierre and Niquelon 6.0 Tokelau Islands 2.0 Tuvatu 8.0 Wallis and Futuna Islands 13.0 SPECLAL Topic 1: PROJECTNG AIDS MORTALrTY v SPECIAL TOPIC I: PROJECIING AIDS MORTALITY This section describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in the projections and compares resulting demographic indicators with those constructed if AIDS is not incorporated, as in previous editions of the World Bank's projections. The methodology makes use of an epidemiological model developed at the World Bank that simulates the spread of HIV, and the demographic model used to do the population projections (Bulatao and Bos, 1992). Simulations of the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality are used to derive equations that can be applied to populations with measurable levels of HIV infection with a minimum requirement for data. Epidemiological model The epidemiological model, developed by Bulatao (1991) consists of a numerical simulation of three processes: the spread of HIV, the development of AIDS among those infected with HIV, and the progression form AIDS to death. The three processes are modeled separately for adults (those aged 15 years and over) and children. The model allows HIV to spread sexually between partners, through blood transfusions, infected needles, and perinatally between mother and child. Sexal transmission In handling the sexual transmission of HI'-, the model first divides all adults in the population into four sexual orientation groups: females (assumed to be all heterosexual), heterosexual males, homosexual males, and bisexual males. Females are assumed to choose partners from among heterosexual and bisexual males; heterosexual males from among females; homosexual males from among themselves and bisexual males; and bisexual males from females, homosexual males, and among themselves. Within each group, up to ten subgroups varying by sexual behavior can be defined. Those who have developed AIDS are assumed not to be sexually active, and therefore are effectively in a no-sex subgroup. Given some initial assumption about the proportion infected with HIV in a particular year, the number sexually infected in each subsequent year is calculated subgroup by subgroup. In its basic form, the calculation of the number of HIV seroconversions (0) in one year (t) in a given subgroup (s) of one sexual orientation group (r) is given by Ont = Mnt.l P,., (1 - (1 - O) (1 - OT) (1 - R,,,, [1 . (1 - Tr)t)P-} (1) where M is the number of HIV seronegatives in the subgroup, P is the likelihood of adult survival from mortality unrelated to HIV, R is the proportion of potential sexual contacts, or agents, who are infective, T is the likelihood of transmission to group r through sexual contact, S is an average number for sex acts per partner, and F is the annual number of new partners. (Different values of F and S are the main factors distinguishing sexual orientation subgroups.) O, and OT will be explained below. The proportion of agents (R) infective to subgroup s is the weighted proportion across all other subgroups with which subgroup s has secual contact who are asymptomatic but HIV- seropositive (A). The weights used are the frequencies (F) with which these other subgroups take new sexual partners. The asymptomatic seropositives (A) in a given subgroup are calculated by summing up all those infected in previous years and subtracting those expected to progress to AIDS or to die from other cadses. IVi SPECIAL ToPic 1: PROJECTNG AIDS MORTALfY No restrictions are placed on the way sexual orientation groups are divided into subgroups or on the values of F and S specified for each subgroup. Inconsistent parameters, requiring for example that males have many more sexual partners in the aggregate than the available females, can be used as input. The model adjusts the input figures if necessary, essentially taking averages or adjusting flgures proportionally, in order to force them into consistency. These adjustments are made for each year of the simulation, as the number and distribution of the sexually active changes. Nonseual transmission Infection with HIV through needles and blood accounts for the terms 0 and OT in equation (1). The adult population is divided into crosscutting subgroups for number of annual transfusions and number of annual injections, with the bulk of adults typically assumed to be in zero- frequency subgroups. The probability of infection (0 or OT) in each subgroup is then a function of the proportion of "agents" (needles or blood) infected, the likelihood of transmission through a single exposure to an infected agent, and the frequency of such exposure, through injections or transfusions, for the particular subgroup. The formula is similar to (1), leaving out a few irrelevant terms. The proportion of needles infected is equal to the proportion of adults infected, weighted by the frequency with which each receives an injection. The proportion of blood infected is equal to the proportion of adults infected, optionally weighted by propensity to donate blood, which can be specified for each sexual orientation subgroup. Both these proportions can be modified, the first by a specified proportion of needles sterilized and the second by a specified proportion of blood screened. For perinatal, or vertical, transmission, the number of infected newborns is the product of the number of women of reproductive age, the proportion of women infected (including, in this case, those who have progressed to AIDS), the general fertility rate, and an optional adjustment factor that can be used if it is assumed that those infected have either higher or lower fertility than others. The model does not allow overall fertility to be affected by use of this adjustment factor, implying in effect that fertility among those not infected either rises or falls to counterbalance the adjustment Nor does the model make allowance for children being infected in any other fashion, nor for their transmitting the virus to anyone else. Poession from HIV to AIDS The number that progress to AIDS is determined by applying separate schedules for adults and children that depend on year since initial infection, after excluding mortality from other causes. The model therefore keeps track of cohorts of HIV seropositives distinguished by infection date, so that appropriate progression rates can be applied. A logistic function of the form H = k / 12 + exp (a + bt)] (2) is presently applied in generating the schedule, but alternative functions can in principle be incorporated. The progression from infection to frank AIDS for both adults and children can be modeled with the same functional form, with the parameters set to allow substantially faster progression for children. Progression from HIV to AIDS Progression from AIDS to death is handled in a similar manner as progression to frank AIDS, using a logistic pattern. SPECIAL ToPic 1: PRoJEClnNG AIDS MORTALITy lvii Model complications Several additional features of the model mainly affect the transmission process and allow tests of the effects of various unknown parameters. These features, listed below, can be ignored in a routine run of the model. (i) Random movement between sexal orientation subgroups. Membership in the four main sexual orientation groups is assumed to be fixed. Within these groups, subgroup proportions are initially specified by the user, and these proportions are applied to the initial population and to all those entering adulthood each year. In one scenario, each individual stays in the same subgroup all his or her life. In an alternative scenario, some proportion of individuals moves between subgroups each year. The model allows specification of a fixed proportion of individuals who move randomly among subgroups, with the likelihood that they enter a given subgroup being proportional to the distribution across subgroups. This is accomplished computationally by redistributing tne specifled proportion of individuals each year before calculating seroconversions. (ii) Infective phases. Different probabilities of transmission can be entered for contact between susceptibles and particular infective agents--men, women, needles, blood, mothers. In addition, human agents can be allowed to vary in infectivity over time. The period between infection and development of AIDS can be divided into up to six segments of varying length, for each of which a specific probability of transmission can be specified. (Since the entire period varies in length across individuals, the segments are proportional rather than of absolute length.) Computationally, this affects equation (1), in which the term Rrt[1 - - (1 - TI)Aj (3) is actually calculated as the summation of similar terms for each of the infective phases. (iii) Cofactors. The model allows condom use, genital ulcers, and one user-specified cofactor to affect infection by acting as a multiplier of transmission rates. In the case of condoms, for instance, transmission rates may be multiplied by .1 or .2 or some other value for those using condoms. An appropriate multiplier and the proportion in each sexual orientation subgroup to whom the cofactor applies must be specified. From period to period, those to whom the cofactor applies may stay essentially the same or may change randomly. (iv) Anal sex. On the assumption that anal sex carries different risks from other forms of scv, the user is allowed to specify what this greater risk is and what proportion of sex acts involve anal intercourse for each sexual orientation subgroup. (v) Genetic variability. The adult population can be divided into two or three groups of arbitrary size with varying susceptibilities to infection. These groups crosscut the sexual orientation groups. A multiplier for the transmission rates and a relative size must be specifled for each group. Computationally, this creates additional compartments in the model but does not change the basic formulae. (vi) Changes in parameters. The model allows changes over time in several parameters. This is accomplished by selecting a date for changes to start and a percentage by which the parameter will rise or fall annually. Changes are allowed in all these parameters: transmission probabilities, sexual behavior, proportion of blood screened, proportion of needles sterilized, proportion using condom, and proportion with genital ulcers. This option allows testing the effects of various interventions, such as those directed towards behavioral change, STD programs, and other medical interventions, lViii SPECIAL ToPiC 1: PROJECTING AIDS MoRrALTy on the spread of HIV (See Bulatao and Bos, 1989b, for an example). (vii) Attraction matriz The basic model assumes proportionate mixing among the relevant subgroups, modified by the frequency with which each subgroup chooses partners. A further modification can be made if one wishes to assume that contact between particular subgroups is more likely than contact between others. An "attraction matrix" is defined providing weights for the likelihood of contact between every pair of subgroups. These weights are used in calculating the proportion of agents (R) that are infective to a given subgroup. A weight of 2, for instance, implies in effect that members of each of the two subgroups, in looking over possible partners, behave as if there were twice as many members of the other subgroup as there actually are. As with other sexual behavior parameters, the attraction matrix can be input in an unbalanced form, and will be forced into balance, which is accomplished through an iterative process. (viii) Urban-rural differences. By defining additional subgroups and using an attraction matrix, it is possible to run a simulation with separate urban and rural sectors. Each sexual orientation subgroup must be divided into two groups, one rural and one urban. The attraction matrix can then be used to increase likelihood of contact within sectors and reduce contact across sectors. In addition, if the proportion of the population in the urban sector in each year is defined, the model shifts sufficient numbers of people between the parallel subgroups in each sector to meet these figures. Demographic Model The demographic model that is linked to the epidemiological model is a variant of the standard cohort-component model used to produce population projections in the absence of AIDS (See Data and Methods and Hill, 1990). The epidemiological model keeps track of age at death due to AIDS among children. Deaths due to AIDS among adults are distributed across five-year age groups according to an age-sex distribution provided by the user. These are translated Into probabilities of dying, which, because they already exclude mortality from other causes, can be simply added to the life table values that are among the vital rates that drive the demographic model. Some aggregation is necessary because the epidemiological model generates annual estimates, while the demographic model generates quinquennial estimates. Simulations A major obstacle to applying the model to Sub-Saharan countries is the unavailability of data required in the model. This concerns especially the behavioral components affecting the spread of HIV. Other required data, such as transmission rates of the virus, the progression to AIDS and death, and the effects of ulcers and condom use, are to some extent transferable from other settings. To circumvent the data problem, and to reduce the amount of input that would be required to apply the model for each Sub-Saharan country with discernable levels of HIV infection, the relationships between current HIV prevalence and future mortality from AIDS were extracted from a set of simulations produced by running the model with standard parameters for a hypothetical population. Modelling approach The approach followed here involves running the above models many times with varying SPECIAL TOPIC 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALiTY Iix values of sexual behavior variables to match arbitrarily fixed levels of HIV prevalence in 1990: low prevalence (1 percent of the adult population), intermediate (3 percent) and high (6 percent). In these simulations, sexual behavior parameters are manipulated to achieve the specified HIV prevalence, whereas other variables are set at one of three levels. These variables, selected because of their significance in the spread of the virus established in previous applications of the model (See, e.g. Bulatao, 1991) and because of known variations in conditions in Sub-Saharan countries, are: condom use, the prevalence of genital ulcers, and the intensity of blood screening. In addition, three different starting years (1970, 1975, and 1980) for the epidemic were used. The combination of every level of these variables, shown in table SI below, results in a total of 243 simulations, which were run from the start of the epidemic until 2025. Other parameters of the model, such as fertility levels and trends, mortality from other causes, age structure, transmission rates, progression of children and adults from HIV to AIDS and death were selected on the basis of available information from surveys and surveillance systems in Sub-Sahara African countries (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1991). Especially useful in establishing parameter values were also "standard parameters" developed for HIV modeling exercises at the United Nations and at Family Health International (United Nations/World Health Organization, 1991; Family Health International, 1991). Table S2 shows a summary of the assumed parameter values used in the simulations. Further assumptions were necessary regarding the course of the epidemic in the future. While intensive efforts to develop a vaccine are reported to be making some progress, at this time it does not appear likely that an effective vaccine will be available in the next few years. Arbitrarily, it is assumed that an effective medical intervention will become available in 2005, and that transmission of the virus resulting in new HIV infections will be cut in half each year thereafter. It is also assumed that there is no interaction between HIV prevalence and fertility, or between AIDS mortality and mortality from other causes (other than that an individual who succumbs to AIDS cannot die of another cause). The evidence of individuals adjusting their fertility behavior based on the prevalence of HIV is very limited, and hypotheses for either an increase and a decrease in overall fertility have been proposed (World Bank, 1990; Ryder et al., 1991). Simulation results The simulation output gives projections of HIV prevalence from 1990 to 2025 in the presence of varying levels of the cofactors, and of several resulting mortality indicators. The analysis of the simulation results consists of two steps. First, it is examined how well future HIV prevalence can be predicted from 1990 prevalence in these simu1lted scenarios. Second, the relationship between HIV prevalence and mortality indicators is examined. As AIDS mortality in Sub-Sahara Africa affects both adults and young children, both the effects of HIV level on future life expectancy at age 10 and on future mortality of children under five are analyzed. Regression analysis is used to establish the relationship between 1990 prevalence and future prevalence, separately for males and females. In order to linearize trends over time in these data, logarithmic transformation of HIV prevalence are used. Table S3 shows the regression coefficients to predict future HIV prevalence from just three variables: 1990 HIV prevalence, 1990 HIV prevalence squared, and the year that the epidemic started. The model fits the data very well, especially early in the projection period, and the R2 never drops below 0.85. kx SPECIAL ToPic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MoRTALTY Table S1. HIV transmission factors and their values used In simulations Variable Values Starting year of spread of HIV 1970, 1975, and 1980 Condom use low (1%), medium (2%), and high (3%); increased gradually after 1990 Genital ulcers prevalence medium: 0.001-7.5%, depending on risk subgroup; decreased gradually after 1990 high: double the medium value low: half the medium value Blood screening low (5%), medium (10%), high (20%); increased graduaUy after 1990 Sexual behavior Number of new sexual partners per year varied to achieve 1990 HIV prevalence of 1%, 3%, and 6% Regression analysis is also used to establish the relationships between the level of adult HIV infection and mortality indicators in the future. The effects for adult males and adult females are estimated separately, and the effects on children's mortality is estimated from female infection rates. Table S4 shows regression equations, with life expectancy at age 10 the dependent variable for the equations including HIV prevalence, HIV prevalence squared, and the starting year of the epidemic as independent variables for adults. For children, under-five mortality is the dependent variable, and HIV prevalence for women the only independent variable. Given that these regressions use data generated with simulations, eliminating the effects of extraneous factors, it is not surprising that the R2 values are so high. As stated above, these results apply to a hypothetical population with overall mortality levels as in Eastern Africa. The equations would underestimate the impact of AIDS in countries with lower mortality from other causes and overestimate the impact where mortality is higher. Further analysis showed that for the projection purposes, the application of an adjustment factor equal to the squared ratio of a given life expectancy and the hypothetical population's life expectancy would produce consistent results. This adjustment factor is applied to the number of years lost due to AIDS. SPECIAL ToPic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALITY [Xi Application to Sub-Saharan African countries Data Estimates of HIV prevalence in 1990 for all Sub-Saharan African countries were made by Chin (1991) at the World Health Organization, and are summarized in Figure S1. These estimates were for males and females combined; based on the simulations, it is assumed that female HIV prevalence is 1.2 times male prevalence. HIV-1 and HIV-2 have been combined in one overall HIV estimate. Starting years of the epidemic were derived from the U.S. Bureau of the Census' AIDS data base (1990). Figure Si. Percent HIVSeropositive, Adult Population 1990 :! a C S .................................. , ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ to 2 X~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ to , E U ~~~~~~~~~~~~~b E 5 IXII SPECIAL Topic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALrTY Table S2. Parameter values used In simulations |Deographic variables l Fertility Total fertility rate declines from 6.5 during 1985-1995 to 6.2 in 1995-2000, and by 0.6 units thereafter. Age specific fertility pattern like Eastern Africa aggregate. Fertility adjustments No fertility adjustments because of HIV/AIDS are made. Mortality (non-AIDS) Mortality from causes other than AIDS follows Eastern Africa aggregate pattern. Life expectancy gradually increases from 55.6 during 1985-1990 to 68.7 during 2020-2025. Infant mortality declines during the same l _____________________________________ period from 93 to 34. Mortality adjustments No interaction between AIDS mortality and mortality l _________________________________________ from other causes is assumed. Age structure The 1985 age-sex distribution equals the Eastern Africa aggregate, with 46X below age 15 and 51X l _______________________________________ between ages 15 and 65. Transmission rates Heterosexual contacts Male to female transmission averages 0.002; female to male, 0.001. Transmission rates vary by duration since infection of the infected partner. HomosexuaL contacts it is assumed that homosexual contacts are insignificant and can be ignored. Blood transfusions Receiving a blood transfusion with infected blood is assumed to have a transmission rate of almost 0.999. Injections Receiving an inJection with an infected needle is assumed to have a transmission rate of 0.005. Perinatal Perinatal (or vertical) transmission from is assumed i _____________________________________ to average 0.3. Cofactors: ulcers A multiplicative factor of 40 is applied to transmission rates when a susceptible partner has a__ _ _ _ _ _ _ genital ulcers. Cofactors: condcas A multiplicative factor of 0.2 is applied to I_______________________________________ transmission rates when a condom is used. Anal sex effect No adjustment of transmission rates is assumed for l _____________________________________ either receptive or insertive anal sex. Risk group membership and characteristics Risk group membership: males 30X monogamous; 40X low sexual activity; 20X medium sexual activity; 10X high sexual activity Risk group membership: females 50X monogamous; 302 low sexual activity; 15X percent medium sexual activity; 5X p-ostitutes New contact frequency: males Monogamous: 0.05 new contacts per year; low: 2; medium: 15; high: 50. Contact frequencies adjusted in simulations with different HIV prevalence levels SPECIAL TOPIC 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALrTy lxili New contact frequency: females Monogamous: 0.05 new contacts per year; low: 2; mediun: 5; prostitutes: 200. Contact frequencies adjusted in simulations with different HIV prevalence tevels Blood transfusions 90X percent never receives a blood transfusion; 8X has 0.1 frequency of receiving blood; 1X has I exposure; 1X has S exposures Injections 70% percent receives 0.1 injections; 10X has I frequency of receiving an injection; 10X has 3 exposures; 10X has 10 exposures Gonital ulcers prevalence Nediun value for monogamous males and females: 0.0001; low sexual activity: 0.0005; medium sexual activity: 0.02; high sexual activity, males: 0.1; female prostitutes: 0.2 Disease progression Adults: HIV to AIDS Progression follows a logistic curves, with parameters a=2.77, b=0.3, k=0.9. This has a median of 10 years, with 90 percent of those infected ultimately developing AIDS Children: HIV to AIDS Progression fOllows a logistic curve, with parameters a=3, b-3, k=0.98 Adults: AIDS to death Progression follows a logistic curve, with parameters a=1.5, b-1.5, k=0.999 Children: AIDS to death Progression follows a togistic curve, with parameters __________-___________________j______ _ a 4, b=4, k=0.999 other prameters Random proportion for cofactor group It is assumed that an individual's status on ulcer and condom cofactors is 101 random, in comparison _____________ _________ _ with their status in the previous year. Random subgroup proportion It is assumed that subgroup membership is 101 random, in comparison with subgroup membership in the previous year Condom-genital ulcers association It is assumed that there is a -0.75 correlation between an individual having genital ulcers and using a condom. Genetic variability No variability in genetic susceptibility to infection si assumed. Blood donation propensity Is assumed not to vary by risk group. Attraction matrix Proportionate mixing is assumed IXiv SPECIAL ToPic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALnTY Table S3. Regressions for HIV prevalence In future years, female and male adults HIV Prevalence (In) in year Predictor 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 FEMALES Constant -158.50 -250.39 -320.94 -352.79 *380.33 -404.87 -556.77 (3.06) (6.45) C9.22) (10.61) (11.82) (13.20) (31.57) 1990 HIV Ctn) 1.11 1.18 1.27 1.30 1.33 1.36 1.20 (0.01) (0.02) (0.03) (0.04) (0.04) (0.05) (O.07) 1990 HIV squared (Ln) -0.06 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.12 0.00 (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.05) Year of start 0.08 0.13 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.28 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) R2 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.86 N1243 MALES Constant -158.36 -251.55 -323.41 -356.36 -385.34 -409.76 -550.86 (3.18) (6.56) (9.33) (10.73) (11.98) (13.23) (31.26) 1990 HIV (tn) 1.08 1.14 1.22 1.24 1.28 1.30 1.12 (0.01) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.04) (0.04) (0.07) 1990 NIV squared (Cn) -0.05 -0.08 -0.10 0.00 -0.11 -0.12 0.00 (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.04) Year of start 0.08 0.13 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.28 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) R2 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.85 1-243 Table S4. Regressions for life expectancy at age 10 and under-five mortality rate Life expectancy at age 10 in period Predictor 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 FEMALES Constant 55.96 58.10 59.06 59.95 61.33 62.73 64.02 (0.02) (0.03) (0.06) (0.07) (0.03) (0.01) (0.06) HIV (tn) -0.87 -0.88 -0.97 -1.01 -1.39 -1.74 -1.45 (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.08) HIV squared (In) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 -0.06 (O.00) (O.00) (O.00) (0.00) (O.00) (O.00) (0.02) R2 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.95 MALES Constant 54.59 55.73 56.31 56.77 58.03 59.23 60.30 (0.02) (0.03) (0.14) (0.14) (0.11) (0.08) (0.05) HIV (ln) -0.70 -0.88 -0.87 -0.84 -1.19 -1.49 -1.34 (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.04) (0.07 HIV squared (in) 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.02) R2 0.99 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.94 SPECIAL TOPIC l: PROJECnNo AIDS MORTAUTy lxv Table S4, continued Under-five mortality rate fn period Predictor 1990-95 1995.00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 Constant 0.104 0.092 0.080 0.068 0.054 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) HIV 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) R2 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 Procedures The regression equations estimated above were incorporated into the World Bank's standard prr-cedures for projecting mortality (Bulatao and Bos, 1989a). The procedures were modified as follows: first, the level and pattern of mortality is projected under no-AIDS circumstances, and appropriate Coale-Demeny model life tables are selected. Using adult HIV prevalence in 1990 and an estimated starting year of the epidemic, HIV prevalence in future years is calculated with the regressions in Table S3. Next, years of life expectancy lost due to AIDS mortality of children and adults is calculated with the regressions in Table S4. Finally, the number of years lost, expressed as Coale-Demeny model life table levels, is subtracted from the projected no-AIDS trends until 2020-25, after which mortality recovers gradually to the projected level in 2050 under a no-AIDS situation. Results The estimated impact of AIDS on demographic indicators will be presented for all Sub- Sahara African countries combined and the impact of AIDS on total population will be given for individual countries. Figure S2 shows projected population and Figure S3 the population growth rate for 1985-2020, comparing the revised World Bank projec'ions that incorporate AIDS mortality and previous projections without AIDS mortality, which are otherwise identical. The difference in the number of people is hardly discernable before the end of this decade, but keeps growing and reaches 49 million in 2020. The difference in the growth rate is at most 0.15 percent. The differences are not only due to AIDS mortality, but also to fewer births resulting from fewer women of reproductive age. The contrast between the AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios is much more pronounced for life expectancy (Figure S4), which immediately shows a lower rate of increase and a divergence of as much as 3.5 years. Figure S5 shows the number of deaths due to AIDS, added to deaths from other causes. At its peak, AIDS adds 1.3 million deaths annually to the 9.5 million deaths from other causes. Long-term implications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are shown in Figures S6 and S7. Life expectancy is assumed to recover fully to the no-AIDS levels by 2050, total population, will, ceweisparibus, never catch-up with the population projected in the no-AIDS scenario. Such long-term projections are, of course, much more dependent on the assumptions made regarding the future course of the epidemic and the effectiveness of interventions than are projections for the short-term. Table S5 shows the percentage difference in projected population in AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios for all countries of Sub-Saharan Africa for 2000, 2020, and 2050. The mean difference in 2000 is 0.8 percent, in 2020, 3.2 percent, and in 2050, 5.2 percent. blvi SPECIAL ToPIc 1: PROJECTiNG AIDS MORTALfy Figure S2. Total Population Cbillions) 11.3 Sub-Saharan Africa, 1985-2020 0.9 0.0 0.8 0.9 i985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201S 2020 0 N AI0S + AIOS Figure S3. Population Growth Rate C%) 3Su-Saharan Africa, 1995-2020 ^.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2r 2.1 1l9o9s- 1990.95 1995-00 2000-05 200S-10 2010-15 2015-20 0 NO AIDS + AIDS SPECiAL Topic 1: PROJEcTING AIDS MORTALuY blvi Figure S4. Life Expectancy Cyears) SLO-S&har8n AfriCS. 1985-2020 83 62 61 59 57 Ss 55 S4 53 52 5 9B5-90 i990-9S 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 201S-20 0 No AIDS + AIDS Figure S5. Annual Deaths Cmillions) SLO-aWran Afr ia, 1905-2020 12 ~11- 10 7 4 1995-90 199G-95 1995-00 2000-0S 2005-10 2010-15 2045-20 F AIDS =AIS lXViii SPECIAL ToPic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALY Figure S6. Total Population Cbillions) 3.2 Sub-Saharan Afrlca. 1985-2150 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0 4 1991 20b20 200 20'40 L20b l20'0j 21O 21201 2140 1990 2010 200 20 200 2090 2110 2130 214 0 0 ND AIDS + AIDS Figure S7. Life expectancy (years) 80-Sanharan Afrlca, 1995-2150 85 so 75 70 85 60 ~ / 55 ie-'s0 l 202-30 | 2065-70 i 210.10 2U4-50 20 *0t 20o0 20AISo 212 A30 O No AIOS + AIDS SPECIAL TOPIC 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALITY lbxi Table S5. Percentage difference In population, AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 Angola 0.2 1.6 3.5 MaLawi 2.0 7.8 12.3 Benin 1.2 6.0 8.6 Mali 0.1 1.2 2.8 Botswana 0.1 0.8 1.2 HaurItania 0.3 1.7 3.9 Surkina Faso 0.5 3.0 5.2 Mauritius 0.0 0.4 0.9 Burundi 1.9 7.1 10.8 Mozambique 1.2 4.5 7.2 Cameroon 0.3 2.1 3.5 Namibia 0.5 2.3 3.1 Cape Verde 0.4 1.7 2.3 Niger 0.2 1.6 3.8 Centr. Af. R. 2.0 7.4 10.4 Nigeria 0.3 1.6 2.6 Chad 0.0 0.6 2.0 Reunion 0.0 0.0 0.0 Comoros 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rwanda 1.9 7.5 12.1 Congo 1.3 4.7 7.3 Sao Tome 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cote D'lvoire 1.7 6.2 9.3 Senegal 0.1 1.6 3.1 Djibouti 0.3 1.8 3.6 Seychelles 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eq. Guinea 0.4 1.9 3.2 Sierra Leone 0.3 1.8 3.6 Ethiopia 0.2 1.4 3.2 Somalia 0.8 3.7 7.0 Gabon 0.3 1.7 4.0 South Africa 0.1 0.6 0.8 Gambia 0.4 2.6 5.1 Sudan 0.3 2.1 3.9 Ghana 0.2 1.4 2.6 Swaziland 0.1 1.0 1.9 Guinea 0.2 1.7 3.8 Tanzania 1.7 6.8 10.6 Guinea-Bissau 2.1 7.6 11.1 Togo 0.4 2.4 4.3 Kenya 0.7 3.6 5.7 Uganda 2.6 10.0 14.9 Lesotho 0.0 0.3 0.8 ZaIre 1.1 4.6 7.0 Liberia 0.4 1.9 2.9 Zambia 4.7 14.9 20.6 Madagascar 0.1 0.8 1.7 Zimbabwe 2.8 7.6 9.1 Conclusions While the impact of AIDS on population could certainly be more severe than shown here, especially if various conditions conducive to the spread of HIV would prevail, the results indicate that even In severely affected countries population growth is likely to continue at high levels. Short-term effects were shown to reverse gains made in life expectancy over the past decades and to increase the crude death rate, but not to an extent that population growth is reduced by more than 0.5 percent in the countries with the highest infection levels. It must be stressed that many parameter estimates for model variables are based partly on conjecture rather than on empirical data. While the model has been used to effectively simulate the spread of the epidemic from its start in the early 1970s to the presence (See, e.g. World Bank, forthcoming), there is no guarantee that the same parameters will hold in the future. Further uncertainty is introduced by the unknowable future course of the epidemic, which in this analysis is assumed to be drastically reduced after 2005. As with most projections, the short-term effects are acoompanied by much less uncertainty than the longer range projections. In the case of HIV/AIDS, with its long incubation period, mortality in the next several years is mostly the result from infections that occurred in the past 10 or so years. If an estimate of HIV prevalence is available, projections of mortality from AIDS should be quite reliable. The more difficult part is clearly projecting the spread of HIV, as this ik subject to behavior that does not lend itself to easy inquiry. box SPECIAL ToPic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MoRTAuTY References Bulatao, Rodolfo A. 1991. "The Bulatao Approach: Projecting the Demographic Impact of the HIV Epidemic Using Standard Parameters." Chapter X in: United Nations/World Health Organization (1991) The AIDS Epidemic and its Demographic Consequences. New York and Geneva. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. and Eduard Bos. 1989a. Projecting Mortality forAll Countries. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers, No. 337. Population and Human Resources Department, The World Bank. Bulatao, Rodolfo A and Eduard Bos. 1989b. Implications of Control Measuresfor the Spread of HIV Infection. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, April 1989. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. and Eduard Bos. 1992. Projecting the Demographic Impact of AIDS. Policy Research Working Paper WPS 941. Chin, James. 1991. Formal estinates of 1990 seroprevalence, Sub-Saharan Africa. Unpublished Manuscript. Hill, Kenneth. 1990. PROJ3S - A Computer Program for Population Projectons. Washington, DC: The World Bant Ryder, Robert W. et al. 1991. "Fertility rates in 238 HIV-1 seropositive women in Zaire followed for 3 years post-partum." AIDS 5,12:1521-1526. United Nations and World Health Organization. 1991. The AIDS Epidemic and its Demographic Consequences. New York and Geneva. United States, Bureau of the Census. Recent HIV Seroprevalence Levels by Country: September 1990. Research Notes No. 2, Health Studies Branch, Center for Intetnational Research. World Bank. 1990. Seminar on AIDS and Population Policy, August 28, 1990 (Background materials). Washington, DC: The World Banlk World Bank. Forthcoming. The Socioeconomic Impact of AIDS in Uganda. Washington, DC: The World Bank. SPECIAL TOPIC II: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN FORMER SOVIET-UNION bodi SPECIAL TOPIC I: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN THE REPUBLICS OF THE FORMER U.S.S.R. Since the previous edition of World Population Projections was issued, the U.S.S.R. has dissolved and become fifteer separate countries for which individual projections are provided in this volume for the first time. The demographic situation in these countries is quite diverse as a result of past differences in vital rates and migration, and their demographic prospects are consequently very different as well. This section focusses on the recent demographic history sf and prospects for the former Soviet Republics, which, because they constituted one country, has not been presented before. Population growth and distribution Of the fifteen countries, the largest is the Russian Federation with over half of the population of the former Soviet Union, as is shown in Figure SI. The next largest are, in order, the Ukraine, Uzt ekistan, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. The other ten countries contain only 12 percent of the total population of the former Soviet Union. Thus, while the Russian Federation is by far the largest country of Europe, most of the former Soviet republics resemble many other countries in the region in the size of the total population. Land areas of the countries vary even more widely than population totals; as a result, population densities are very uneven, ranging from 129 persons per square kilometer in Moldova, to 8.7 persons per square kilometer in the Russian Federation, which includes the vast and sparsely populated Siberian regions. Figure SI. Cofnposition of the Former Soviet Union Latvia 1O.9X) Ukraine ci?.Me rg-~ Armenia C1t.1ti %| KaZ8khgton C5 86 ) Russion Fed. C5t.2# Azerbaijan C2.5%) Georgi C1 e.9 Kyrgyzetan C.1 .5 Turkrninlstan (I 3) Lithuanlia Cl.3~ Moldove Ci. 5) Tej ikietn C1. IV Belarus C3.6M) U2bekltraSinotO5 l-il SPECIAL ToPic II: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN FORMER SOVIET-UNION Figure S2. Population Growth Rates, 1990 Figure S2 compares annual population growth rates for the period 1990-94. Five countries have growth rates over 1 percent, whereas most of the other countries' growth rates hover around 0.5 percent per year. These rates show a clear geographic pattern, with the Central Asian countries mostly having high growth rates. Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, llll l l l.|!! and Azerbaijan, which together have only 14 percent of the population of the former Soviet Union account for 40 percent of the increase in population in all fifteen countries. One consequence Figure S3. TFR in Former Soviet-Union Republics of the differences in growth rates is that the composition of the region will gradually change. For example, the share of the Russian Federation of the region's total will drop from just over 51 percent now to 47 percent by 2025. Fetil4ty The main reason for the differences in population growth rates is the variation in fertility. Figure S3 compares the TFR in 1992 for all 15 countries. Figures S4 and S5 show trends in the TFR from 1960 to 1990. Two sets of countries can clearly be Figure S4. Trends in TFR, low fertility countries distinguished: those with high and medium-high fertility (Figure S5) and those with fertility near replacement (Figure S4). For most of the high and medium high-fertility countries, trends since 1980 are generally downwards, *[ | although at a slow rate. The low fertility countries have been mostly stable at low levels since the 1960s. An .* i | exception is Armenia, which joined the low fertility countries only in the mid- lI:tlulul 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .L 1 leb 19170s. 0OaP * I. *. . a .la x. ap ._ S. . SPECIAL TOPIC II: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN FORMER SOVIET-UNION bxxiii Figure SS. Trends in TFR: high fertility countries Motali*y Differences in life expectancy are not as pronounced as those for fertility and population growth. Figure S6 shows estimated 1992 life expectancy (male and female) from the Soviet Union average for each country. Belarus is highest, with a life .___________________________ expectancy that is two years higher, and Turkmenistan stands out with a life o c..t* r.n * ^ T*lSltl X1 7 expectancy five years below the Soviet Union average. Recent trends in life expectancy for males are shown in Figures S7 and S8. As with fertility, Figure S6. Difference in e(O) from USSR average clear geographic patterns are noticeable, with lower life expectancies for the Central Asian countries. Life expectancy increased in most countries by one to two years during the 1980s 00 _ _ _-lUlllSllGllGllilalSlalthough there was a sizable one-time -1.0 illUldrop in Armenia's level attributable to -0.0 3||1illllllthe 1988 earthquake. One of the more 2.i0 ll remarkable demographic features of ...a lllllsome of the former Soviet republics is -.0 the large differences between male and ' i00 J ", I 'L J J. female life expectancy (Figures S9 and r10), r-iching a high of 10.5 years in Russia -- the highest observed difference in the world. These disparities between male and female life Figure S7. Trends in e(0) expectancy are probably due to greater alcohol and cigarette consumption by men (Dutton 1981). Although infant mortalityincreased somewhat during the 1970's (possibly j " : due to improved reporting), it has been decreasing over the last decade for all of the countries. However, considerable diversity still exists in the r : Y rates which are higher in the Central o .4 n N - .. N " 7 " " Asian countries and lower in most of p innI. * intrga * ee.- * .._ * .W Xthe other countries. The infant mortality rates range from 54 in Turkmenistan to 15 in the Ukraine and Belarus. bOiv SPECIAL ToPic II: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN FORMER SOviET-UNION Figure SaL Trends in e(O) Migratn Internal migration played an important role in the spatial A " distribution of the population of the Soviet Union. Goveinment policies aimed at balancing requirements for labor and population; however, they were only partly successful. In the n.. -C - <, , . , . 1960s, efforts to settle outlying areas in a S a tr " n a - In a Siberia were largely ineffective, while a * &. . the Central Asian republics, which already had a labor surplus, continued to attract more migrants. In the 1970s, however, there was significant change Figure S9. Differences between male and female e(O) in the direction of interregional migration trends (Zayanchkovskaya, 1991). Western Siberia started to experience a large influx of population, * and the Central Asian republics began to have large migration deficits. These trends continued in the 1980s. The : , North-Western and Central regions . 'NZ&.4 5.--g~ (Moscow and SL Petersburg and their _ districts) attracted large number of migrants throughout the period. ,_ ~J.. * . £?uo'o x y,in Several factors are conducive for intensified migration in the 1990s. The change to a market economy, which is likely to result in differentials in wages Figure S10. Differences between male and female e(O) and employment opportunities, will create labor markets with strong incentives to move to the economically more developed countries. Past migration trends have led to considerable ethnic diversity in some of the countries, whereas others have .---.--.........-.------. remained more homogeneous. Over 25 million Russians live outside the country in other former Soviet Union republics, while Armenia's population is 93 percent ethnic Armenians * * . ,,, . .,, . ,,,_ * *_., ,^,|," (Scherbov and Andreev, 1992). The consequences of ethnic dispersion for future migration flows are hard to anticipate; at its worse, it could SPECIAL TOPIC 11: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN FORMER SOVIET-UNION bOCV result in substantial refugee flows when ethnic frictions erupt, as in the Armenia-Azerbaijani conflict. Full freedom of movement was restricted in the former Soviet Union; to what extent new migration policies will limit the movement of people among the new countries remains to be seen. In addition to economic, ethnic, and political factors, natural and environmental disasters may increase future migration. The Chernobyl nuclear accident has caused large outmigration in the areas of the Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia most affected by contamination. References Dutton, John C. Jr. 1981. "Causes of Soviet Adult Mortality Increases'. Soviet Studies, Vol 33, No 4: 548-559. Scherbov, Sergei, and Evgeniy Andreev. 1992. Population Prospects for the Republics of the Former USSR." Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Denver, April 30-May 2, 1992. Zayanchkovskaya, Zh. A 1991. "Inter-Republic Population Migration in the USSR." Studies on Soviet Economik Development, Vol 2, No 3:228-242. bo(vi DATA AND METHODS DATA AND METHODS The data used in each projection include base-year (mid-1985) total population estimates and age structures by sex, ard base-period (1985-90) mortality, fertility and migration rates. The data, their sources and how they are derived when insufficient information is available, will be described in this section. The sources of each country's base data can be found in Table A3. Data Populaton and age-sex structure Estimates of the mid-1985 populations are obtained from the most recent reliable sources. When possible, these estimates are obtained from recent census totals projected to mid-1985, after adjustments have been made for under- or over-reporting. Provisional census figures that have not been evaluated are not used. A major source of adjusted census figures is the U.N. Population Division. Other sources include the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Eurostat and, for the former Soviet countries, the U.S.S.R. census publications. When no recent census figures are available, official estimates are often adopted, frequently as reported by the U.N. Statistical Office in Populaton and Vital Statisics Report. In addition, base-year population estimates may be obtained through projections of past census results with fertility, mortality, and migration rates from vital registration or surveys. Age-sex structures are distributions of the population by age and sex. As is the case for total population, the U.N. Population Division provides many of the age-sex strctures, which generally are census age structures adjusted for age-misreporting or estimations using stable population analysis when necessary. Other sources include World Bank and official estimates from recent censuses and projections from earlier censuses. Estimates based on a more recent census generally provide more reliable information than estimates constructed through projections from earlier censuses. However, some European countries have not had a census in decades, but maintain very accurate demographic intelligence through population- and vital registers. Most other countries lack complete regstration systems and rely on censuses, usually taken ten years apart, often supplemented with intercensal surveys. Figure Al summarizes the currentness of census counts. Mortality data Base-period mortality levels in the projections are indicated by life-expectancies at birth by sex and infant mortality rates for both sexes combined. Life expectancies for the quinquennia 1975- 80, 1980-85 and 1985-90 were obtained from a variety of sources, with the U.N. Population Division being the most frequent one. Others are based on estimates published in Populaton and Vtal Statistics Report, DHS reports, statistical yearbooks, census publications, World Bank reports, Eurostat (1991), Monnier and Guibert-Lantoine (1991) and the U.S. Bureau of the Census. In cases where data are not available for the desired quinquennium, or give indices other than life expectancies, some estimation and projection is then necessary to obtain the right index. Further detail about the construction of current mortality estimates may be found in Bos et al. (1992). Infant mortality rates, like life expectancies, are taken from a variety of sources. A frequently used source is the U.N. 1990 World Population Prospects. Other sources include surveys, DATA AND METHoDs boCviI Figure Al Distribution of countries by year of latest census 100 90 :e0 r 190o oe 1717 901S 95o ae 70 60 00 30 20 10 N 0 MN Before 1970 or none 1970-1979 1980- 198.4 1985 or later censuses, official estimates, USBOC, Eurostat and World Bank estimates. The mortality risk for children under age 5 for the current period is derived from a model described below. Earlier estimates are often taken from the U.N. publication Mortality of Children Under Age S. Fertility data Total fertility rates are derived from simiiar sources as mortality rates, including the U.N.'s World Population Prospects 1990, surveys, censuses, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The DHS survey are a particularly useful source of data. Other sources include official estimates, Bank estimates, and Eurostat. Because fertility rates are not always available for the specified period or are in terms of another parameter such as the crude birth rate, total fertility rates are sometimes obtained by projections of earlier estimates or approximated using available data on age-sex structure and age- specific fertility. Migration Data Estimates of net international migration are obtained from a variety of sources including statistics from national immigration agencies, statistical organizations, official sources, interagency task forces and research institutions. Arnold (1989) compiled aDl these data. Updates of this information have been made as more data has become available. In developing these estimates, migrants are considered persons who have resided in countries different from their previous residence for at least a year or who are believed likely to remain permanently in receiving countries. Persons are not counted as migrants when they are refugees living in officially designated camps. Only net estimates are made by quinquennium; immigration and emigration are not estimated separately, and single-year figures were not assessed. bolviii DATA AND METHODS Projection methodology Population projections were run using the conort-component method on microcomputers with the software package, PROJ3L (A similar program, PROJ3S, is described in Hill (1990), the only difference being that this program allows for 75-year projections rather than long-term projections shown here. The assumptions about future trends in vital rates will be discussed in this section. Projecting Mortality The procedures used to project mortality were developed from analysis of trends in life expectancy and infant mortality in avai!able national data. (See Bulatao et al., 1989). These projections utilize extended life tables (see Coale and Guo, 1989) with maximum male and female life expectancy assumed to be 83.3 and 90 years, respectively. These maxima were revised upward in 1991 because previously used maxima are now barely above the currently estimated levels for the lowest mortality countries. Life expectancy in Japan, for instance, is estimated at 75.6 for males and 81.4 for females - only slightly below the previously used maxima. Research into the consequences of controlling major risk factors has found that thereotically much higher life expectancies are attainable. Bourgeois-Pichat, in an attempt to estimate the effect on the life span of eliminating "exogenous" causes of death, obtained a maximum life expectancy of 76.3 for males and 78.2 for females. In 1978, he revised the limit, putting life expectancy for males slightly lower at 73.8 years and that for females higher, at 80.3 years (barely above the current estimates for Norway). Manton (1986) showed that an increase in life expectancy of 12.3 to 12.8 years in the expectation of life at age 30 years was possible with effective control of major risk factors. Even if no changes in mortality under 30 occurred this would result in an increase in male life span to above 81 years. On the basis of this evidence and given the long range nature of these projections a higher maximum life span was considered appropriate. Future trends in life expectancy at birth. Life expectancy is projected from year 0 to year t using a logistic function over time of the form e, = ko + k / (1 + exp [logit(eo) + rt]}, with logit(eo) = log. [(ko + k - eo) / (e0 - ko)]. Logistic functions are used because these fit past trends best, country by country. The schedules of medium change in life expectancy and infant mortality reflect median trends across countries, and the schedules for minimum and maximum change reflect the 10th and 90th percentile when country trends are ranked from slowcst to fastesL The equations to predict short-term trends in life expectancy and infant mortality were estimated using these data; other socioeconomic factors, like per capita income, did not improve prediction. The logistic function is set to rise most rapidly from a level of 50 years or so and increasingly slowly at higher levels. The minimum (kI) for the logistic functions for both sexes is assumed to be 20 years, and the maxima (ko + k) are assumed to be 90 years for females and 83.3 years for males. The rate of change (r) for the logistic function k allowed to vary across countries, and for a given country to vary over time. For the first quinquennium (1985-90), the rate of change (r,) is estimated from the rate of change in the previous quinquennium (ro) and from the female secondary enrolment ratio (so), DATA AND MErHoDs bxxix using the equations r, = .00379 + .723 ro - .000254 so for females, and r, = .01159 + .885 r0 - .000318 so for males. Percent urban is used in a few cases, with a different equation (see Bulatao et al., 1989), where secondary enrolment is not available, and in fewer cases still the rate of change in the previous decade is used instead of the rate of change in the previous quinquennium when the latter appears to have been affected by exceptional circumstances. Limits are imposed on the rate of change for the first quinquennium (and for all other quinquennia), such that it cannot be greater than -.017 (which would give slow mortality decline) or less than -.053 (which would give rapid mortality decline). For the second quinquennium, the rate of change is estimated as a function of the rate of change for the first quinquennium: r2 = -0.007 + 0.7 r,. The rate of change for the third Table Al Assumed annual increments to life expectancy quinquennium is estimated from the rate of change for the second quinquennium in the Initial Hates FemaLes same manner. This equation Life allows rates of change to expec-. tancy Minimum Mediun Maxinun Miniaun Medium MaxlIum converge toward the uniform pattern imposed for subsequent qumquenma. 40 0.14 0.34 0.55 0.14 0.36 0.58 45 0.15 0.38 0.61 0.16 0.40 0.65 For these subsequent 50 0.16 0.39 0.63 0.17 0.43 0.69 . f 55 0.16 0.39 0.62 0.17 O." 0.70 qunquenia for all countries, 60 0.15 0.37 0.59 0.17 0.43 0.68 the rate of change in life 65 0.13 0.32 0.52 0.16 0.40 0.69 expectancy is constant at -.035 75 0.07 0.18 0.28 0.12 0.36 0.57 forboth sexes. At this rate, the 80 0.03 0.08 0.12 0.09 0.21 0.34 annual increments to life 85 - -- -- 0.05 0.11 0.18 expectancy vary by initial levels as indicated by the medium pattern in Table Al. Minimum and maximum increments corresponding to the slow and rapid limits imposed on rates of change in the first three quinquennia are also shown. Future trends in infant mortality. Infant mortality is projected using a similar logistic function. The rate of change for each of the first three quinquennia is obtained from the equation r, = .0275 + .5 r,.,. with the restriction that this rate must be in the range [.024, .1301. These limits provide schedules of minimum and maximum annual decrements to infant mortality, varying by the initial rate, shown in Table A2. A set of medium decrements is also provided, representing the typical schedule of improvements toward which rates of change converge when the preceding equation is applied successively. A minimum attainable level of infant mortality of 3 per thousand was used instead of the previously assumed 6 per thousand. This level is roughly equivalent to the level attainable under b1x DATA AND METHODS Table A2 Assumed annual decrements the extended life expectancy assumptions employed. to infant mortality rate Selection of life tables. InitIal infant Those life tables are selected from rate Minimwn Mediu Maxinun the Coale-Demeny models (Coale and Demeny 1983) rate__ M__ n__ um_ Medium_____xf_u_ that provide the projected life expectancy and infant 150 0.83 2.08 4.02 mortality rates for the first three quinquennia. First, 140 0.92 2.32 4.47 a level of the life tables is chosen to give the desired 130 1.00 2.50 4.81 infant mortality rate (Interpolation is used if 120 1.13 2.63 5.03 necessary). Mortality rates up to age 14 are taken 110 1.16 2.69 5.15 from this life table. Second, another level of the life 100 1.16 2.71 5.16 90 1.14 2.66 5.07 table is chosen to give rates for ages 15 and older 80 1.10 2.56 4.86 such that the desired level of life expectancy is 70 1.03 2.41 4.56 obtained. Among the four Coale-Demeny families 60 0.93 2.20 4.16 50 0.81 1.94 3.65 (North, South, East, and West), that family is chosen 40 0.67 1.62 3.05 which minimizes the divergence between the two 30 0.50 1.26 2.35 chosen levels. 20 0.31 0.84 1.56 10 0.09 0.36 0.68 For subsequent quinquennia, only life expectancy is used in determining levels, and the West family is used consistently. Survivorship ratios from these model life tables were specified for the first three quinquennia and for 2025-30, 2050-55, and 2100-05. The projection program used, ProjPC-II (Hill, forthcoming ), was allowed to interpolate linearly for intervening periods, to facilitate a smooth transition across life table families where this was necessary. Projectng fertility Future fertility trends are specified by quinquennial total fertility and by a year when the net reproduction rate reaches unity, i.e., when the average woman's fertility results in exactly replacing herself. (This is referred to here as the replacement year.) Separate procedures are applied for three stages of the fertility transition: the pretransition stage, when fertility is high and sustained fertility decline has not started; the transition stage, when fertility is high to medium and sustained fertility decline is in progress; and the late-transition and posttransition stage. We discuss procedures for determining total fertility in each stage and then explain what age-specific patterns of fertility were applied. For current purposes, a fertility transition is assumed to have started if a country has experienced a drop in total fertility of at least .5 points over any five-year period, or if total fertility is already below 4.5 after a more gradual decline (Bulatao and Elwan 1985). The pretransition stage is the stage before any such decline is evident. The late-transition and posttransition stage is defined by a total fertility rate one point above replacement level (about 3.15) or lower. Countries in the pretransition stage are assumed to start a fertility transition in the quinquennium after combined male and female life expectancy reaches 50 years, but in no case later than 2005. The life expectancy threshold is slightly lower than the threshold of 53 years previously shown to be a universal precondition, though not a sufficient condition, for the start of fertility transition (Bulatao and Elwan 1985). Until a transition starts, total fertility is assumed to be constant. The one exception is where sterility is a significant factor, sterility is then assumed to decline linearly DATA AND METHoDs bolci to 6 percent over three quinquennia, with each percentage point drop in sterility raising total fertility by .11 points (Frank 1983). In the transition stage, the rate of fertility decline is based on the rate in the preceding quinquennium, assuming transition had already started in that period. With previous annual change represented by DIR, annual change during the transition is set at (-.05 + .5 DwR). However, limits are set on this change: it must be at least -.073 points and at most -.210 points, which may be taken to define slow and rapid fertility decline. (Previous analysis in Bulatao and Elwan 1985 defined rapid decline as an annual total fertility change of -.2164 points, which is consistent.) If the formula does not apply because transition has just started, an average annual decline in total fertility of .06 points for the first five year of the transition and 0.12 annually for subsequent quinquennia is imposed. In the early part of the transition stage, the sterility adjustment is applied if appropriate to raise total fertility slightly. In the late-transition and posttransition stage, fertility approaches replacement level, either from slightly above or slightly below it. Four alternative patterns: * Generally, a geometric function is imposed on total fertility decline from one point above replacement level to replacement level, with this decline assumed to take 15 yeams. * Where total fertility has shown unusually slow declne, it is assumed to take 20 rather than 15 years for total fertility to fall one point to replacement. * YtWhere, toward the end of a fertility transition, total fertility is still recording rapid declines even though it is close to or even below replacement level (2.25 to 1.75), it is assumed to fall further for one period, generally going below replacement, to stay constant in the next period, and then to return to replacement. * Where the transition has been completed and total fertility is below replacement, it is assumed to stay at the current level for two quinquennia, and then to return gradually to replacement, along a linear path, by 2030. In applying late-transition procedures, the level of total fertility that provides replacement is approximated by a quadratic formula based on female life expectancy (e(fl) in the replacement year: TNRR-I, = 6.702 - .1107 e(r) + .0006592 e(f). The replacement year is first approximated in order to determine life expectancy and then calculated given this formula and whichever pattern of fertility change above is appropriate. For all stages of fertility transition, the age pattern of fertility is determined in the same fashion, depending on the level of total fertility (Figure A2). Two basic schedules of age-specific fertility are defined: for total fertility levels greater than six and for total fertility levels of three and lower. In between, age patterns are obtained by interpolation between the two schedules. At a total fertility level of six, a greater proportion of births are at younger and older ages of the reproductive span, and the mean age of childbearing is 28.9 years. At a total fertility level of three, births are concentrated in a narrower band of ages, and the mean age of childbearing is 28.0. These procedures were developed from preliminary analysis of total fertility trends in cross-national data (See Bos and Bulatao 1989). In the pretransition stage, countries showed mostly stable fertility. The transition stage was more interesting. Across 42 countries which started a fertility transition between 1955 and 1983, the average annual decline in total fertility ranged from 0.06 to 0.25 bdXIi DATA AND MErnOoS Figure A2. Percentage of Total Fertility Assigned to Different Ages, by Level of Total Fertility 26- to la 24- 40 10 10 4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- s- Is 30-24 15-23 2- 25-20 40-4 41- points. Countries which had initial sharp declines in fertility tended to continue declining rapidly, while tlose that started with more gradual declines continued along the same path. Rapid and slow ewine were found in ali regions. The rate of decline was predicted best by the rate in preceding periods; socioeconomic factors added little to this prediction. Other than the mortality threshold, socioeconomic fbctors also failed to predict the start of fertility transition. Projecting Migration Estimates of futis net migrants by quinquennium up to the year 2000 are those prepared by Arnold (1989) as part of an examination of data and sources. These estimates are strongly affected by official policies and plans in the major receiving countries. The figures we designed to total zero in each quinquennium for the whole world. After the year 2000, the numi -r of net migrants is assur.ied to approach zero linearly In each country, at the estimated rate of change in their number frori the period 1990-95 to the period 1995-2000, or at a rate that would make their number zero by 2025-30, whichever rate is faster. For these later periods, a zero total for worldwide net international migration was obtained by adjusting initial estimates of net migrants in three major receiving countries-the United States, Australia, and Canada--upward or downward as necessary by a proportion constant across these countries, but varying by quinquennium. These adjustments were of 1 or 2 !xcent for the earlier periods, negligible compared to the volume of migration assumed for these countries, but were up to 10 percent for later periods. The age-sex distributions of migrants are determined from alternative models based on their sex ratios. U migration is heavily male, migrants are assumed to be concentrated in the age group 15-30, with few children and elderly. If migration is more balanced between males and females, proportionally more migrants are assumed to be children and elderly (Hil, 1990). DATA AND METHODS boolii lxxiv DATA AND METHODS Table A3 Sources Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Afghanistan Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Albania Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) I.N.E.D., 1991 Algeria Bank est., from official 1/85 est. From Bank sector report 6/88 est. Angola U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Antigua and U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official CBR Barbuda Argentina U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Armenia Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Australia Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/88) Austria Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Bank est. based on Monier, 1988 Azerbaijan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Bahamas, The Official est. (UNDY 1988) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90) Bahrain Official est. (Central Stat. Org, Bahrain) OfficiaL est. (Central Stat. Org, Bahrain) Bangladesh Bank est. from 1979 and 1989 censuses Bank est. from 1989 Fertility Survey Barbados Official est. (UNPVSR) Bank est. from official CBR Belarus Official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (UNDY 1989 and UNPVSR 10/91) Belgium Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1990 Belize Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1985 Benin Bank projection from 1979 census Bank est. from 1961 survey and WFS Bhutan Official est. (Stat. Handbook of Bhutan, 1985) U.N. 1990 revision Bolivia U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Botswana Bank projection from 1981 census Bank est. from 1988 DHS Brazil U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. based on official CBR and 1990 population Brunei Bank est. from 1981 census and 1986 official Bank est., based on official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90) est. Bulgaria Bank est. from 1985 census (UNPVSR 7/91) Monnier, 1991 Burkina Faso Bank est. from 1985 census (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Burundi Bank projection from 1979 census U.N. 1990 revision Ca*bodia U;N. 92 revision. (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Cameroon Bank est. from 1976 and 1987 censuses and 1991 DHS official 1987 est. Canada Official est. (UNDY 1988) Official est. (Stat. Canada) Cape Verde U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Central African U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Rep. Chad U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Channel Islands Bank est. from 1981 and 1986 censuses Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 7/91) Chile U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) China (excl. Bank est. from official year-end est. (State Bank est. from 1987 Demographic Survey and Taiwan) Statistical Bureau, 1990) 1990 census Colombia U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Comoros Bank projection from 1980 census, excl. Mayotte From Bank sector report est. Congo, People's Bank projection from 1984 census Official est. (Ministry of Econ. Planning) Rep. of the Costa Rica Official est. (Direccion General de Estadistica U.N. 1990 revision y Censos) Cote d'lvoire U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) 1988 census Croatia Official est. (Statistical Office, Belgrade Bank est. from official est. (Stat. Office, 1988) Belgrade, 1988) DATA AND METHODs bcxv of Population Data Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Afghanistan Monnier, 1991 OfficiaL est. (UNPVSR 10/89-7/91) U.N. 1990 revision ALbania U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Algeria U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Angola Bank est. from official CDR Bank est. based on official est. Bank est. from UNDY 1978 Antigua and Barbuda U.N. 1992 revision (prelim) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1900 revision. Argentina Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Armenia census report census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Australia Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Austria Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 AzerbaiJan census report census report census report Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bahamas, The (UNPVSR 10/90) Bank est. from official 1986 est. Official est. (Central Stat. U.N. 1990 revision Bahrain (Central Stat. Org., Bahrain) Organization, 10/89) U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (Bureau of Stat.) U.N. 1990 revision Bangladesh U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (preLim.) U.N. 1990 revision Barbados Official est. (UNDY 1989) OfficiaL est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (UNDY 1989) Belarus Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Belgium Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. from UNDY 1978 Belize of the Census, 1985 of the Census, 1985 Bank est. based on WFS Bank est. from WFS Bank est. from 1979 census Benin U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bhutan U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 199B revision Bolivia Bank est. based on 1988 DNS Bank est. from 1988 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Botswana U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Brazil Bank est. based on official est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from 1981 census Brunei U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Bulgaria U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Burkina Faso U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Burundi U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Cambodia Bank est. from WFS U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1976 census Cameroon Officfal est. (Stat. Canada) Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) Official est. (Stat. Canada) Canada U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Cape Verde Bank est. from census U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1975 census Central African Rep. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Chad Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 7/90) Bank est. from UNDY 1981 Charmel Islands (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Chile Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. China (excl. Taiwan) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Cotombia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Comoros U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1984 census Bank est. Congo, People's Rep. of the U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 190 revision U.N. 1990 revision Costa Rica 1988 census U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Cote d'Ivoire Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Croatia (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) bcxvi DATA AND METH;ODS Table A3 (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Cuba Official est. (UNDY 1988) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/88, 10/89) Cyprus Bank est. from official est. for 12/85 (UNPVSR Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/91) 4/87) Czechoslovakia U.N. 1990 revision Monnier, 1991 Derwnark Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1989 Djibouti U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Dominica Bank est. from 1981 and 1991 censuses Bank est. based on officiaL CBR (UNPVSR 10/91) Dominican Rep. U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. based on 1986 DHS and 1991 DHS Ecuador Sank est. from 1990 census 1987 DHS Egypt U.N. 1990 revision 1988 DHS EL Salvador U.N. 1990 revision 1988 Family Health Survey Equatorial Bank projection from 1983 census and 1982 Bank est. Guinea household listing Estonia Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 censuses Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report Ethiopia Official est. (Central Stat. Authority, 1988) Official est. (Central Stat. Authority, 1988) Fiji Bank est., from 1986 census Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Finland Official est. (UNDY 1988) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90, 7/91) France Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1989, 1990 French Polynesia Bank est. from official 1985 est. (UNPVSR Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 10/88) 1989, and official CBR (UNPVSR 10/89) Gabon Bank projection from 1981 census Bank est. Gambia, The Bank projection from 1983 census Bank est. Gaza Strip U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from CBR for Gaza (West Bank Data Base Project) Georgia Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 censuses Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report Germany Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1990 (for Fed. Rep.) Ghana Official est. 1988 DOHS Greece Eurostat, 1991 Bank est. based on Eurostat, 1989, 1990 Grenada Official est. (O.E.C.S. Statistical Digest, Bank est. from 1980-85 official est. (Ministry of 1987) . Finance) Guadeloupe Bank est. from 1982 and 1990 censuses Bank est. from CBR and growth rate Guam U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1988 Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989, and official COR (UNPVSR 10/91) Guatemala U.N. 1990 revision 1987 OHS Guinea U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Guinea-Bissau Bank projection from 1979 census Bank est. Guyana Official est. (UNPVSR 10/90) Bank est. from official CBR Haiti U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1999 revision Honduras U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Hong Kong U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. based on official CBR (UNPVSR 7/89) Hungary Official est. (Central Stat. Office, 1987) Nonnier, 1991 Iceland Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Bank est. based on official CBR India Bank est. from 1981 and 1991 censuses U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1987 Indonesia Bank est. from 1990 census Bank est. from 1987 and 1991 DHS Iran, Islamic Bank est. from 1986 census Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, Rep. of 1989, and growth rate Iraq U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision DATA AND METHoDS loocvii Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Cuba (UNPVSR 10/88, 10/89) U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Cyprus (UNPVSR 10/90) U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Czechostovakia Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1990. 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Denmark U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Djibouti Bank est. from official CDR Bank est. from official est. Official est. (UNDY 1988) Dominica (UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. from 1986 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Dominican Rep. U.N. 1990 revision 1987 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Ecuador U.N. 1990 revision 1988 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Egypt U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision El Salvador Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Equatorial Guinea Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Estonia census report census report census report From Bank sector report est. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Ethiopia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Fiji Bank est. from official CDR Monnier, 1988 U.N. 1990 revision Finland (UNPVSR 10/90, 7/91) Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1989. 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 France Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. rrench Polynesia of the census 1989; official CDR of the census 1989 Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Gabon Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Gambia, The U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1988 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1988 Bank est. Gaza Strip Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Georgia census report census report census report Eurostat, i?O (for Fed. Rep.) Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 (Fed. Rep.), Germany U.N. 1990 revision (Dem. Rep.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1970 census Ghana Bank est. based on official CDR Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Greece Bank est. from 1980-85 official Bank est. Bank est. Grenada est. (Ministry of Finance) U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Guadeloupe (UNPVSR 4/90) Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. Guam of the Census, 1989 of the Census, 1989 U.N. 1990 revision 1987 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Guatemala U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Guinea Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Guinea-Bissau U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Guyana U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Haiti U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Honduras U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/90) U.N. 1990 revision Hong Kong U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) Bank est. from 1980 census Hungary U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Iceland U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1981 census India Bank est. from 1987 and 1991 DHS, Bank est. from 1987 and 1991 DHS, Bank est. from 1990 census Indonesia and 1990 census and 1990 census U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Bank est. Iran, Islamic Rep. of U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Iraq lKxxvlii DATA AND METHODS Table A3 (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population. mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Ireland Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat 1989, 1991 Israel Official est. (UNPVSR 1/87) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Italy Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat 1989. 1990. 1991. Jamaica U.N. 1990 revision Bank estimate based on CBR Japan Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) Official est. (Ministry of Health and Welfare) Jordan Bank est. from official est. (Stat. Yearbook, Bank est. 1983 Famity Health Survey and 1990 DHS 1987) Kazakhstan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Kenya Official est. 1989 DNS Kiribati Official est. (UNPVSR 1/88) Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Korea, People's U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Dem. Rep. of Korea, Rep. of Official est. (Econ. Planning Bureau, 1988) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 1/89) Kuwait Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) U.N. 1990 revision Kyrgyzstan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Lao PeopLe's U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Dem. Rep. Latvla Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Lebanon U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lesotho Bank projection from 1986 census Bank est. from 1977 UFS Liberia U.N. 1990 revision 1986 DHS Libya U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision LIthuania Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Luxembourg Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1989. 1990. 1991. Macao Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) Bank esz. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/89, 10/90) Madagascar Official ebt. (UNPVSR 10/90) Bank assessment of 1980 survey Melawi Bank est. from 1987 census Bank est. from 1977 census Malaysia Official est. (Dept. of Stat.) U.N. 1990 revision Maldives Bank projection from 1985 census Bank est. from official CBR for 1980-1985 Mali Bank projection from 1976 census 1987 DHS Malta U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official CBR tUWPVSR 10/89. 10/90) Martinique U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Mauritania Bank projection from 1988 census Official est. from 1988 census Mauritius U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Mexico Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) U.N. 1990 revision Micronesia. Fed. Official est. (ESCWA Stat. Yearbook for Asia Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, States of and the Pacific, 1988) 1989 Moldova Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Mongolia Bank projection from 1989 census U.N. 1990 revision Montserrat Official est. (UNDY 1986) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 1/87) Morocco Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from 1987 DHS Mozambique Bank projection from 1980 census Bank est. Myav.ar U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Namibia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision DATA AND METHoDs bOx(xC Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory Bank est. based on official CDR Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Ireland U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1990 revision Israel Eurostat 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Italy U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Jamaica Official est. (Ministry of U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (Ministry of Japan Health and Welfare) Health and Welfare) U.N. 1990 revision U.S. Bureau of the Cens, 1989 Bank est. Jordan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Kazakhstan census report census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Kenya Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. Kiribati of the Census, 1989 of the Census, 1989 U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Korea, People's Dem. Rep. of U.N. 1990 revision Bank est., based on official CDR U.N. 1990 revision Korea, Rep. of U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Kuwait (UNPVSR 10/90) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Kyrghyzstan census report census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revisfon U.N. 1990 revision Lao People's Dem. Rep. Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Latvia census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lebanon official est. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lesotho U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Liberia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Libya Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Lithuania census report census report Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Luxembourg Bank est. Bank est. Bank est. Macao Bank est. from 1980 and 1984 U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Madagascar surveys U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Malawl Bank est. from officalt est. Bank est. from offIcial est. U.N. 1990 revision Malaysia Bank est. from 1990 census Bank est. from 1990 census Bank est. Maldives Bank est. from 1976 census U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Mali U.N. 1990 revision Official est. CUNPVSR 10/90) U.N. 1990 revisIon Malta U.N. 1992 revIsion (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Martinfque U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank eat. Mauritania Bank est. based on official est. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Mauritwus (UNPVSR 7/86) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revfsfiw U.N. 1990 revision Mexico Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank e&t. based on U.S. Bureau Sank est. based on U.S. Bureau MIcronesia, Fed. of the Census, 1989 of the Lenrus, 1989 of the Census, 1989 States of Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Moldova census report census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revislon Mongolie Bank est., based on official Bank est. UNDY 1988 Montserr6t est. (UNPVSR 1/87) U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1988 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Morocco Bank est. from official CDR U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Mozambique U.N. 1990 revislon U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Myanmer U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Namibia XC DATA AND METHODS Table A3 (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertiltty, 1985-90 Nepal Official est. (Central Bureau of Stat.) Bank est. from survey Netherlands Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1989 1991 Netherlands Bank est. from 1971 and 1981 censuses Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, Antilles 1987, and official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90) New Caledonia Bank est. from 1983 census and 1986 official Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, est (UNPVSR 10/89) 1989 New Zealand Bank est. from official 1985 est. U.N. 1990 revision Nicaragua U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Niger Bank projection of 1988 census U.N. 1990 revision Nigeria Bank projection from 1963 census Bank est. from 1991 DOHS Norway Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/88-9/91) Oman U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Pakistan Bank est. from U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. based on growth rate Panama U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Papua New Guinea U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Paraguay U.N. 1990 revision 1990 DHS Peru Bank projection from 1981 census Bank est. from Bank assessment for 1980-85 Philippines Bank est. from official est. (UNPVSR 10/88) Bank est. from official est. (Nat. Stat. Office) Poland Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) onnier, 1991 Portugal Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1989, 1991 Puerto Rico U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. from official CBR Qatar Bank est. from 1986 census ard 1989 official Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90) est. (UNPVSR 10/90) Reunion U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Romanfa Official est. (UNPVSR 10/89) Official est. (Stat. Yearbook of Romana, 1990) Russian Fed. Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Rwanda U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Sao Tome and Bank est. from 1981 and 1991 censuses Bank est. Principe Saudi Arabfa Bank est. U.N. 1990 revisfon Senegal Bank est. from 1988 census 1986 DHS Seychelles Official est. (Stat. Bulletin of MIS Division) Bank est. from official CBR Sierra Leone Bank est. from 1985 census Bank est. from 1974 census Singapore Bank est. from 1980 and 1990 censuses Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 1/89, 10/89) Slovenia Official est. (Statistical Office, Belgrade Bank est. from official est. (Stat. Office, 1988) Belgrade, 1988) Solomon Islands Bank est. from 1986 census U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Somalia Bank est. from 1987 census Bank est. South Africa U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Spain Eurostat, 1991 Bank est. from official CBR, and Eurostat, 1989, 1991 Sri Lanka Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) 1987 DHS St. Kftts and Official est. (Statistics office, Plarning Bank est. from official CBR (Statistics Office, Nevis Unit) Planning Unit) St. Lucia Offfical est. (UNPVSR 1/88) Bank est. from official CBR St. Vincent and Bank est. from 1980 and 1991 censuses Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/89, 10/91) the Grenadines Sudan Bank projection from 83 census U.N. 1990 revision Suriname Official est. (Central Bureau of Civit Bank est. from official CBR (Central Bureau of Affairs) Civil Affairs) Swaziland U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1991 revision Sweden Officlal est. (UNPVSR 4/87) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/89, 10/90) DATA AND METHODS xci Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality. 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory U.N. 1990 revision Goverrnent Survey Bank est. Nepal U.N. 1990 revision Eurostat, 1989. 1990. 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Netherlands Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Official est. (UNPVSR 10/90) UNDY 1988 Netherlands of the Census and UNPVSR 10/90 Antilles Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. New Caledonia of the Census, 1989 of the Census, 1989 U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision New Zealand U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Nicaragua U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Niger U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Nigeria U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/88-7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Norway U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Oman Bank est. Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) Bank est. Pakistan U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Panama U.N. 1990 revision U.N. Stat. Yearbook for Asia and U.N. 1990 revision Papua New Guinea Pacific, 1988 U.N. 1990 revision 190 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Paraguay Bank est. 1986 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Peru Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Philippines Bank est. from official COR Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Poland Eurostat 1989, 1990 & 1991 Eurostat, 1989. 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Portugal Bank est. based on CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1990 revision Puerto Rico U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Qatar U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Reunion Official eat. (Stat. Yearbook Officiat est. U.N. 1990 revision Romania of Romania, 1991) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Russian Fed. censwus eport census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Rwanda Bank est. from official CDR Bank est. from official est. Bank est. Sao Tome and :UNPVSR 7/89) tUNPVSR 7/89) Principe U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Saudi Arabia Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Official est. Senegal Bank est. Official est. UNDY 1984 Seychelles U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Sierra Leone U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 1/89) U.N. 1990 revision Singapore Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Stovenia (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) Bank est. from official 1980-84 Bank est. Bank est. Solomon Islands est. (Stat. Bulletin, Honiara) Bank est. U.N. 190M revision Bank est. Somalia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1.90 revision U.N. 1990 revision South Africa Eurostat, 1991 Bank est. based on Eurostat, Eurostat, 1989 Spain 1989, 1990, 1991 U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1987 OHS U.N. 1990 revision Sri Lanka Bank est. from official COR Bank est. from official est. Official est. from 1980 census St. Kitts and (stat. Office, Planning Unit) Nevis Bank est. from official CDR Bank est. from official est. Official est. from 1980 census St. Lucia Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 10/89, UNDY 198 St. Vincent and (UNPVSR 10/89, 10/91) 10/91) the Grenadines U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Sudan Bank est. from official CDR, Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Suriname (Central Bureau of Civil Affairs) Bank est. Bank est. Bank est. Swaziland U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/88-7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Sweden xcii DATA AND METHODS Table A3 (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Switzerland Official est. (UNDY 1988) Bank est from official CBR (PVSR 10/90, 10/91) Syrian Arab Rep. U.N. 1992 Rev. (Prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Taiwan, China Bank est. based on official year-end est. Bank est. from official CBR (Taiwan Stat. Data (Stat. Data Book, 1987) Book, 1987) Tajikistan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Tanzania Bank est. from 1978 and 1988 censuses From Bank sector report est. Thailand Official est. (Nat Econ and Soc Dev Board, U.N. 1990 revision 1985) Togo Bank projection of 1981 census 1987 DHS Tonga Bank projection from 1984 mini-census Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Trinidad and U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. based on 1987 DHS Tobago Tunisia Official est. (UNPVSR 1/88) Bank est. based on 1988 DHS Turkey Official est. (Social Indicators, Turkey, Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/91) 1990) Turkmenistan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censues Uganda Bank projection from 1969, 1980, and 1991 1988/89 DHS censuses Ukraine Official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (UNDY 1989) United Arab U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Emirates United Kingdom Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1989, 1991 United States of official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (Nat. Center for Health Stat.) America Uruguay Official est. from 1985 census Bank est. from official est. Uzbekistan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Vanuatu Bank est. from 1979 and 1989 censuses Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Venezuela Official est. (UNPVSR 1/87) U.N. 1990 revision Viet Nam Bank. est. from 1989 census Bank est. froa 1989 census Virgin Islands U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1985 Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 4/90) (U.S.) West Bank U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Western Samoa Bank est. from 1986 census Bank est. from 1986 census Yemen, Rep. of Bank est. from 1988 census Yemen P.D.R. and Bank est. based on U.N. 1990 revision 1986 census for Yemen A.R. Yugoslavia Official est. (Statistical Office, Belgrade Bank est. from official est. (Stat. Office, 1988) Belgrade, 1988) Zaire U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. Zanbia Bank projection from 1980 census From Bank sector report est. Zinbabwe Bank projection from 1982 census 1983 DHS DATA AND METHoDs xciiI Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory Sank est. from official est. Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Switzerland (UNPVSR 10/90, 10/91; UNDY 1987) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Syrian Arab Rep. Bank est. from official CDR fank est., based on U.S. Bureau Official est. (Taiwan Stat. Taiwan, China (Taiwan Stat. Date Book, 1987) of the Census, 1987 Data Book, 1987) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Tajikistan census report census report census report From Bank sector report est. From Bank sector report est. Bank sector report est. Tanzania Based on official proj. 1985 Based on 1987 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Thailand U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Togo Bank est. Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. Tonga of the Census, 1989 U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. based on 1987 OHS U.N. 1990 revision Trinidad and Tobago U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Tunisia Official est. from 1985 census Official est. from 1985 census U.N. 1990 revision Turkey Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Turkmenistan census report census report census report Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Uganda official est. (UNDY 1989 and Official est. (UNDY 1989) UNDY 1989 Ukraine UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision United Arab Emirates Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat, 1989, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 United Kingdom official est. (Nat. Center for Official est. (Nat. Center for U.N. 1990 revision United States of Health Stats., and Census Bureau) Health Stats., and Census Bureau) America official est. from 1985 census U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Uruguay Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Uzbekistan census report census report census report Bank est. Bank est. from official eat. Bank est. Vanuatu U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Venezuela Bank est, based on 1988 survey Bank est. from 1989 census Bank est. from 1989 census Viet Nam Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) Official est. from 1980 census Virgin Islands (UNPVSR 4/90) (U.S.) U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Bank est. West Bank Bank est. from official 1986 est. Bank est. based on official est. Bank est. from 1986 census Western Samoa Bank est. based on U.N. 1990 Bank est. based on U.N. 1990 Bank est. based en U.N. 1990 Yemen, Rep. of Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Yugoslavia (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) U.N. 1990 revision Bank estimate U.N. 1990 revision Zaire From Bank sector report est. U.N.1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Zambia 1988 DHS DHS, 1988 Bank est. Zimbabwe xciv DATA AND METHODS REFERENCES Arnold, Fred. 1989. Revised estimates and projections of international migration. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers, No. 275. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bourgeois-Pichat, Jean. 1978. Future outlook for mortality decline in the world. Population Bulletin of the United Nations. 11:12-41. Bos, Eduard, and Rodolfo A. Bulatao. 1989. Projecting fertility for all countries. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers, WPS 500. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bos, Eduard, My T. Vu, and Patience W. Stephens. 1992. Sources of World Bank estimates of current mortality rates. Policy Research Working Papers, WPS 851. Washington, D.C: World Bank Bulatao, Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience W. Stephens and My T. Vu 1989. Projecting mortality for all countries. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience W. Stephens and My T. Vu 1990. World Population Projections. 1989-90 Edition. Johns Hopkins University Press. Baltimore. Maryland. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., and Ann Elwan. 1985. Fertility and mortality transition: Patterns, projections, and interdependence. World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 681. Washington, D.C. Coale, Ansley J., and Guang Guo. 1989. Revised regional model life tables at very low levels of mortality. Unpublished paper. Office of Population Research, Princeton University. Eurostat. 1991. Demographic Statistics. Luxembourg: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Hill, Kenneth. 1990. PROJ3S - A Computer Program for Population Projections. Washington, D.C: World Bank. Manton, Kenneth G. 1986. Past and future life expectancy increases at later ages: Their implications for the linkage of chronic morbidity, disability and mortality. Joumnal of Gerontologfy 41:672-681. Monnier, Alain and Catherine de Guibert-Lantoine. 1991. "La conjoncture demographique: L'Europe et les pays developpes d'outre-mer,' Population 46(4):943-961. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. 1990. World Population Prospects 1990. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Various years. Population and J4 Statistics Report. New YorkL United Nations. DATA AND MEMHODS XCV ADDENDUM This section was produced after the projections were completed, just before the papers were issued. Its purpose is to list the results of censuses and surveys that came to our attention too late to be incorporated. Note that these are usually preliminary results that have not been evaluated for data quality, i.e., undercounts in censuses or sampling errors in surveys. Differences with the estimates in the main tables in this volume are therefore not necessarily inconsistencies. Bolivia: Preliminary result of June 1992 census gives total population of 6.3 million. DJibouti: Intercensal survey (EDI) of 1991 gives total population of 519,900. Malaysia: Preliminary result of the August 1991 census is 17,566,982 persons. Underenumeration in the 1980 census was estimated at 4.4 percent. Nigeria: Preliminary result of the November 1991 census shows a total of 88,514,501 million people. Pakistan: Integrated Household Survey (PIHS) of 1991 estimates the IMR at 121 for 1986-90. Peru: Preliminary estimates from the 1991-92 Encuesta Demograflca y de Salud Familiar (ENDES-DHS) shows the IMR at 55 for the five-year period preceding the survey and the TFR at 3.5 for the three years preceding the survey. Zambia: Preliminary estimates from the Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) of 1992 show the IMR at 108 for the five-year period preceding the survey and the TFR at 6.3 for the three years preceding the survey. Detailed Population Projections World, Geographic Regions, and Income Groups 2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS WORLD Population Projectfon (thousards) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 4827212 5267831 5720651 6167907 6611985 7049453 7483922 7918682 8345351 8751064 MALES 0-4 294052 321536 332798 334792 339236 344538 351515 360326 365378 365216 5.9 266550 286789 314576 326358 329061 333822 339608 347143 356522 362206 10-14 266278 264407 284599 312407 324234 327024 331892 337848 345584 355174 15-19 252761 264159 262308 282431 310167 322032 324916 329896 336020 343951 20-24 224730 249938 261280 259483 279431 307119 319037 322053 327185 333530 25-29 197166 221789 246840 258172 256330 276168 303814 315802 318978 324298 30-34 178794 194420 218928 243887 255099 253308 273071 300706 312796 316163 35-39 146535 176009 191530 215954 240719 251898 250191 269901 297548 309778 40-44 118843 143614 172742 188168 212393 236958 248115 246536 266192 293842 45-49 108617 115512 139869 168557 183784 207745 232058 243206 241820 261409 50-54 98754 104154 111000 134785 162775 177708 201276 225221 236357 235261 55-59 85172 9n720 98068 104858 127815 154786 169329 192349 215790 226918 60-64 68612 77445 84668 89969 96693 118476 144053 158084 180358 203119 65-69 48128 59371 67466 74280 79528 86042 106226 129908 143224 164443 70-74 36165 38456 47942 55097 61386 66365 72519 90541 111663 123959 75+ 37925 43585 48657 58870 71070 83307 94702 106734 129043 160999 TOTAL 2429082 2653904 2883270 3108068 3329723. 3547296 3762324 3976253 4184458 4380264 FEMALES 0-4 280801 309476 320755 323152 327553 332398 338806 346963 351478 350938 5-9 253533 273988 303059 315088 318275 322939 328204 335096 343752 348826 10-14 253226 251547 272006 301185 313312 316567 321323 326741 333813 342662 15-19 240870 251326 249750 270218 299394 311563 314911 319784 325375 33264 20-24 215380 238506 249058 247636 268026 297206 309464 312964 318017 323855 25-29 189392 212830 235970 246648 245304 265645 294863 307258 310966 316260 30-34 172264 186864 210282 233436 244160 242909 263233 292519 305091 309052 35-39 141935 169695 184287 207679 230767 241526 240409 260746 290128 302921 40-44 115844 139413 166953 181533 204823 227803 238623 237682 258053 287546 45-49 106844 113193 136560 163826 178339 201458 224314 235216 234503 254913 50-54 98489 103574 109960 133059 159928 174314 197209 219909 230922 230505 55-59 87240 94299 99407 105847 128574 154865 169108 191726 214249 225434 60-64 76200 81817 88774 93921 100429 122589 148126 162217 184511 206864 65-69 56941 69058 74523 81339 86553 93051 114447 138981 152917 174842 70-74 46668 48410 59594 64811 71434 76550 83010 103314 126456 140186 75+ 62505 69931 76443 90459 105392 120779 135548 151312 180660 223346 TOTAL 2398130 2613927 2837381 3059839 3282263 3502162 3721598 3942429 4160892 4370800 BIRTH RATE 27.2 25.7 23.7 22.2 20.9 19.9 19.2 18.3 17.2 DEATH RATE 9.7 9.2 8.6 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.75 1.65 1.51 1.39 1.28 1.20 1.13 1.05 .95 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.75 1.65 1.51 1.39 1.28 1.20 1.13 1.05 .95 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.428 3.233 3.019 2.872 2.733 2.605 2.518 2.441 2.360 NRR 1.459 1.381 1.306 1.267 1.223 1.173 1.143 1.122 1.098 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 64.87 65.98 67.23 68.49 69.43 70.45 71.56 72.75 74.04 eC1s) - BOTH SEXES 55.61 56.20 56.88 57.56 58.17 58.84 59.55 60.32 61.15 INR - BOTH SEXES 68.8 62.7 56.5 50.0 45.3 40.1 34.9 29.7 24.2 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0961 .0874 .0784 .0687 .0625 .0555 .0484 .0411 .0335 DEP. RATIO 65.1 63.0 62.6 61.0 58.0 55.1 53.8 53.9 54.4 55.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 3 ..smiary Projection for 25-Year Periods WORLD AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 4827212 6167907 8345351 10055421 11092173 11651991 11938278 12078606 MALES 0-4 294052 334792 365378 362462 362250 362246 362268 362207 5-9 266550 326358 356522 36121t 361542 361845 362008 361953 10-14 266278 312407 345584 360107 361064 361684 361971 361911 15-19 252761 282431 336020 359204 360526 361330 361723 361692 20-24 224730 259483 327185 358746 359432 360422 360960 361053 25-29 197166 258172 318978 355681 357966 358977 359798 360059 30-34 178794 243887 312796 347107 355808 357413 358567 359035 35-39 146535 215954 297548 334498 353121 355625 357285 357979 40-44 118843 188168 266192 322710 350210 353455 355544 356501 45-49 108617 168557 241820 311223 347108 350353 352918 354189 50-54 98754 134785 236357 298537 339388 345182 348373 350231 55-59 85172 104858 215790 284645 323337 336748 341569 344286 60-64 68612 89969 180358 258747 300040 324633 331939 335886 65-69 48128 74280 143224 214943 272840 307601 317968 323313 70-74 36165 55097 111663 174816 239850 283291 296936 304075 75+ 37925 58870 129043 296212 440338 564953 647496 687468 TOTAL 2429082 3108068 4184458 5000856 5484821 5745757 5877325 5941837 FEMALES 0-4 280801 323152 351478 347592 346932 346510 346455 346406 5-9 253533 315088 343752 346841 346523 346307 346283 34."240 10-14 253226 301185 333813 346132 346265 346292 346274 346226 15-19 240870 270218 325375 345839 346129 346252 346203 3461.4 20-24 215380 247636 318017 346459 345861 346069 345988 346047 25-29 189392 246648 310966 345021 345596 345684 345766 345856 30-34 172264 233436 305091 338066 344607 345118 345442 345622 35-39 141935 207679 290128 327081 343110 344325 345046 345315 40-44 115844 181533 258053 317127 341696 343447 344486 344840 45-49 106844 163826 234503 307844 340668 342131 343578 344069 50-54 98489 133059 230922 298055 336601 340101 341987 342919 55-59 87240 105847 214249 288047 325869 336418 339598 341193 60-64 76200 93921 184511 267510 309615 331009 336208 338792 65-69 56941 81339 152917 228759 291821 323762 331517 335276 70-74 46668 64811 126456 195515 270424 313231 323981 329514 75. 62505 90459 180660 408677 625635 809578 032141 992279 TOTAL 2398130 3059839 4160892 5054565 5607352 5906234 6060953 6136768 BIRTH RATE 25.4 20.0 15.7 13.5 12.5 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 9.1 8.0 8.3 9.6 10.5 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.63 1.21 .75 .39 .20 .10 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.216 2.623 2.231 2.078 2.064 2.057 2.055 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 66.09 70.66 75.96 79.92 82.36 84.39 85.21 IMR - BOTH SEXES 62.6 39.9 18.0 7.5 4.4 2.5 2.2 4 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOMEF GROUPS LDC Populaticn Projection (thousands) AGE GROtlP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 3649732 4053342 4471202 4885762 5299238 3710319 6121662 6535814 6944289 7334724 MALES 0-4 249588 276595 288354 291419 295905 301008 307848 Z!6614 321658 321417 5-9 222483 242250 269614 281861 285662 290491 296100 303508 312853 318538 10-14 220969 220264 240026 267392 279703 283608 288560 294347 301963 311524 15-19 206221 218846 218193 237861 265172 277534 281543 286612 292571 300387 20-24 177711 203378 216005 215363 234893 262194 274635 278785 284021 290216 25-29 149161 174716 200310 212874 212234 231711 259018 271547 275875 281321 30-34 132454 146470 171940 197391 209866 209317 228758 256072 268714 273243 35-39 103023 129882 143819 169117 194382 206843 206396 225792 253124 265903 40-44 84440 100521 127059 140840 165886 190957 203392 203059 222398 249725 45-49 75686 81693 97499 123563 137101 161826 186616 199000 198825 218069 50-54 66200 72240 78118 93514 118858 132082 156315 180676 192974 193019 55-59 55421 61825 67602 73313 88109 112458 125247 148769 172520 184687 60-64 42867 50009 55988 61450 66946 80935 103905 116092 138622 161524 65-69 31356 36687 43011 48477 53553 58730 71603 92684 104029 125167 70-74 21458 24634 29055 34378 39211 43733 48433 59781 78317 88486 75+ 19182 23534 27997 33649 40974 48929 57108 65624 79787 103603 TOTAL 1858219 2063544 2274589 2482462 2688454 2892358 3095479 3298963 3498252 3686829 FEMALES 0-4 238254 266665 278452 281890 286349 291010 297295 305419 309935 309330 5-9 211480 231315 260181 272692 276952 281702 286808 293589 302226 307315 10-14 210000 209377 229263 258220 270854 275202 280064 285332 292304 301144 15-19 196555 207979 207508 227381 256365 269066 273527 278517 283972 291156 20-24 169763 193947 205559 205204 225058 254096 266927 271566 276762 282487 25-29 142364 166934 191239 202930 202721 222587 251715 264714 269590 275058 30-34 126439 139683 164301 188578 200363 200289 220177 249396 262592 267741 35-39 98524 123863 137141 161688 185920 197762 197841 217754 247079 260504 40-44 81114 96157 121295 134527 158959 183087 194990 195241 215187 244619 45-49 72824 78737 93633 118470 131615 155854 179839 191803 192263 212236 50-54 64039 70042 75939 90618 115039 128043 152014 175805 187846 188570 55-59 54043 60640 66546 72415 86793 110635 123467 147091 170647 182805 60-64 43381 49807 56171 61949 67778 81718 104789 117414 140603 163896 65-69 33273 38154 44120 50155 55769 61497 74837 96864 109237 131882 70-74 24141 27029 31329 36639 42221 47530 53076 65548 86099 98098 75+ 25321 29467 33936 39941 48030 57884 68818 80797 99694 131055 TOTAL 1791513 1989798 2196612 2403299 2610784 2817962 3026183 3236851 3446036 3647895 BIRTH RATE 31.0 29.0 26.5 24.5 22.9 21.6 20.6 19.5 18.2 DEATH RATE 9.7 9.2 8.6 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.13 1.98 1.79 1.64 1.50 1.40 1.31 1.21 1.09 NET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.10 1.96 1.77 1.62 1.49 1.39 1.31 1.21 1.09 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.903 3.585 3.284 3.074 2.885 2.718 2.604 2.507 2.406 NRR 1.616 1.497 1.393 1.337 1.277 1.211 1.171 1.144 1.113 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 61.94 63.23 64.67 66.11 67.24 68.44 69.73 71.09 72.54 015) - BOTH SEXES 54.05 54.61 55.29 55.97 56.68 57.43 58.23 59.08 59.99 INR - BOTH SEXES 76.8 69.9 62.9 55.6 50.4 44.6 38.8 32.9 26.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1077 .0976 .0874 .0766 .0696 .0617 .0537 .0456 .0372 DEP. RATIO 70.4 67.0 65.9 63.5 59.4 55.6 53.4 52.9 52.7 53.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS S Su...ry ProjOction far 25-Yeer Peri*s LDC AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 3649732 4885762 6944289 8622788 9654232 10200047 10475017 10609578 MALES 0-4 249588 291419 321658 318729 318521 318515 318535 318475 5-9 222483 281861 312053 317555 317850 318144 318305 318252 10-14 220969 267392 301963 316"69 317370 317985 318273 318216 15-19 206221 237861 292571 315541 316850 317657 318052 318022 20-24 177711 215363 26021 315163 315848 316835 317367 317453 25-29 149161 212874 27758 312354 314547 315523 316321 316569 30-34 132454 197391 268M74 303955 312566 314092 315207 315658 35-39 103023 169117 253124 291567 310049 312430 314042 314717 40-44 84440 140640 222396 280168 307297 310434 312466 313397 45-49 75686 123563 198825 269219 304497 307618 310102 311331 50-54 66200 93514 192974 257070 297431 302959 306012 307797 55-59 55421 73313 7m20 243075 282237 295293 299877 302483 60-64 42867 61450 138622 218153 260175 284237 291188 294979 65-69 31356 48477 104029 176804 234863 268716 278638 283770 70-74 21458 34378 7837 140137 204662 246778 259814 266643 75+ 19182 33649 79787 222M 363026 483434 562069 599969 TOTAL 1858219 2482462 3498252 4298731 4777788 5030649 5156268 5217728 FEMALES 0-4 238254 281890 30935 306063 305415 304995 304939 304891 5-9 211480 272692 302226 305361 305028 304809 304785 304744 10-14 210000 258220 2924 304"64 304764 304792 304777 304732 15-19 196555 227381 28372 304315 304622 304756 304712 304685 20-24 169763 205204 276762 304925 304373 304591 304513 304570 25-29 142364 202930 269590 303597 304153 304236 304310 304395 30-34 126439 188578 262592 263 303228 303700 304007 304179 35-39 98524 161688 247079 285778 301788 302935 303635 303898 40-44 81114 134527 21518T 27601S 300380 302098 303117 303463 45-49 72824 118470 192263 266995 299427 300866 302280 302754 50-54 64039 90618 18786 257281 295612 298989 300806 301701 55-59 54043 72415 17067 246470 285136 295532 298580 300114 60-64 43381 61949 140603 225843 269268 290413 295406 297905 65-69 33273 so5ss 00923 187921 252108 283515 291033 294679 70-74 24141 36639 86099 156311 231697 27322 284041 289400 75+ 25321 39941 99694 295834 509444 689549 807806 865739 TOTAL 1791513 2403299 3446036 4324057 476444 5169398 5318748 5391850 BIRTH RATE 28.7 21.6 16.4 13.7 12.6 12.1 11.9 DEATH RATE 9.1 7.6 7.8 9.2 10.4 11.0 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.94 1.41 .87 .45 .22 .11 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.567 2.739 2.255 2.080 2.064 2.056 2.054 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 63.37 68.70 74.73 79.26 81.96 84.19 85.08 IR- BOTH SEXES 69.8 44.3 20.0 8.2 4.7 2.5 2.2 6 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS I)DC Population Projection (thousards) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 199 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1177480 1214489 1249449 1282145 1312748 1339139 1362260 1382868 1401062 1416340 MALES 0-4 44463 44941 44444 43373 43331 43530 43667 43711 43720 43799 5-9 44068 44539 44962 44497 43400 43331 43508 43635 43669 43668 10-14 45309 44143 44573 45015 44530 43416 43332 43501 43621 43( 9 15-19 46540 45313 44115 44570 44996 44498 43373 43284 43448 4 J 20-24 47020 46560 45275 44119 44538 44925 44402 43268 43164 43314 25-29 48005 47073 46530 45298 44096 44457 44796 44255 43102 42976 30-34 46340 47950 46988 46496 45234 43991 44313 44634 44083 42920 35-39 43512 46127 47711 46837 46337 45055 43795 44109 44424 43875 40-44 34403 43093 45683 47329 46507 46001 44723 43476 43794 44116 45-49 32931 33819 42369 44994 46683 45919 45442 44205 42995 43340 50-54 32554 31914 32882 41271 43918 45625 44961 44545 43383 42242 55-59 29751 30894 30466 31545 39706 42327 44082 43580 43270 42231 60-64 25745 27436 28680 28519 29747 37541 40149 41992 41736 41595 65-69 16m 22685 24455 25803 25975 27312 34623 37224 39195 39275 70-74 14707 13821 18887 20719 22175 22632 24086 30759 33345 35473 75+ 18743 20052 20661 25221 30096 34378 37594 41111 49256 57396 TOTAL 570863 590360 608681 625606 641269 654938 666845 677290 686206 693435 FEMALES 0-4 42547 42811 42303 41262 41204 41389 41512 41544 41543 41608 5-9 42053 42672 42878 42396 41323 41236 41396 41506 41526 41511 10-14 43226 42170 42743 42965 42458 41364 41259 41408 41509 41519 15-19 44315 43347 42242 42837 43029 42497 41383 41266 41404 41492 20-24 45618 44559 43499 42432 42968 43110 42537 41399 41256 41368 25-29 47027 45896 44731 43718 42583 43058 43148 42544 41376 41203 30-34 45824 47181 45981 44858 43797 42620 43056 43124 42499 41312 35-39 43411 45831 47146 45991 44847 43764 42567 42992 43049 42417 40-44 34730 43256 45658 47006 45863 44716 43633 42441 42866 42926 45-49 34020 34456 42927 45355 46724 45604 44476 43413 42239 42677 50-54 34450 33532 34021 42442 44890 46272 45196 44104 43076 41935 55-59 33197 33659 32862 33431 41781 44230 45641 44635 43602 42629 60-64 32819 32010 32603 31972 32651 40872 43337 44803 43909 42968 65-69 23668 30904 30404 31184 30785 31554 39610 42117 43680 42960 70-74 22527 21381 28265 28172 29213 29020 29935 37766 40357 42088 75+ 37184 40464 42506 50518 57363 62895 66730 70515 80966 92291 TOTAL 606616 624129 640769 656540 671479 684201 695415 705578 714856 722905 BIRTH RATE 14.9 14.3 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.2 DEATH RATE 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.8 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. .54 .51 .46 .43 .37 .32 .29 .26 .22 NET MIGRATION RATE .8 .5 .6 .4 .3 .2 .1 .1 .0 GROWT" RATE .62 .57 .52 .47 .40 .34 .30 .26 .22 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.953 1.946 1.929 1.955 1.981 1.998 2.017 2.038 2.060 NRR .937 .924 .918 .936 .952 .963 .972 .983 .995 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 74.29 75.50 76.70 77.83 78.52 79.24 80.00 80.79 81.61 eCs) - BOTH SEXES 60.63 61.71 62.75 63.76 64.36 64.99 65.65 66.34 67.06 IMR - BOTH SEXES 14.7 12.4 10.5 9.0 8.0 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0180 .0154 .0131 .0113 .0102 .0089 .0076 .0064 .0052 DEP. RATIO 50.5 51.1 51.9 52.5 52.5 52.7 55.7 59.3 63.2 66.4 WORLD, C",OORAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 7 Sunary Projection for 25-Year Periods MDC AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1177480 1282145 1401062 1432633 1437941 1451944 1463262 1469028 MALES 0-4 44463 43373 43720 43733 43729 43731 43733 43732 5-9 44068 44497 43669 43662 43692 43701 43703 43701 10-14 45309 45015 43621 43638 43694 43699 43698 43696 15-19 46540 44570 43448 43663 43676 43672 43671 43671 20-24 47020 44119 43164 43583 43584 43587 43594 43600 25-29 48005 45298 43102 43327 43419 43454 43478 43490 30-34 46340 46496 44083 43153 43242 43321 43360 43377 35-39 43512 46837 44424 42930 43072 43195 43243 43262 40-44 34403 47329 43794 42542 42914 43021 43078 43104 45-49 32931 44994 42995 42005 42611 42735 42816 42857 50-54 32554 41271 43383 41467 41957 42222 42361 42434 55-59 29751 31545 43270 41570 41101 41455 41692 41804 60-64 25745 28519 41736 40594 39865 40396 40751 40907 65-69 16m 25803 39195 38139 37977 38885 39329 39544 70-74 14707 20719 33345 34678 35188 36513 37122 37433 75+ 18743 25221 49256 73441 77312 81519 85427 87499 TOTAL 570863 625606 686206 702125 707033 715107 721056 724109 FEMALES 0-4 42547 41262 41543 41529 41517 41515 41516 41515 5-9 42053 42396 41526 41480 41494 41498 41498 41496 10-14 43226 42965 41509 41468 41501 41500 41497 41494 15-19 44315 42837 41404 41524 41507 41496 41490 41489 20-24 45618 42432 41256 41534 41488 41478 41475 41478 25-29 47027 43718 41376 41424 41443 41448 41456 41462 30-34 45824 44858 42499 41383 41379 41418 41435 41442 35-39 43411 45991 43049 41302 41322 41390 41411 41417 40-44 34730 47006 42866 41112 41316 41349 41369 41377 45-49 34020 45355 42239 40849 41241 41265 41298 41315 50-54 34450 42442 43076 40774 40989 41112 41180 41218 55-59 33197 33431 43602 41577 40733 40886 4101P 41079 60-64 32819 31972 43909 4166S 40347 40596 40802 40886 65-69 23668 31184 43680 40838 39712 40247 40484 40597 70-74 22527 28172 40357 39204 38726 39609 39940 40114 75+ 37184 50518 80966 112843 116191 120029 124336 126540 TOTAL 606616 656540 714856 730508 730909 736836 742205 74491e BIRTH RATE 14.2 12.7 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.2 9.4 11.1 11.8 11.5 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .6 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .57 .35 .09 .01 .04 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.946 1.998 2.066 2.064 2.063 2.062 2.061 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 75.52 79.30 82.47 84.16 85.11 85.82 86.11 I[R - BOTH SEXES 12.6 6.9 3.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 8 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS AFRICA Poputation Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 541962 627000 723683 831304 948632 1072278 1200257 1332335 1466678 1599132 MALES 0-4 49569 56273 63617 70721 77659 82138 85604 88954 91417 91805 5-9 39829 46709 53314 60647 67833 74738 79338 82990 86554 89294 10-14 33407 39015 45800 52336 59579 66730 73628 78283 82015 85670 15-19 28538 32M 38287 44961 51371 58563 65681 72577 77287 81099 20-24 23540 277m 31922 37301 43782 50129 57261 64346 71248 76037 25-29 19785 22766 26904 L0924 36119 42509 48794 55875 62940 69868 30-34 16086 19092 22005 26013 29883 35008 41317 47554 54599 61661 35-39 13022 ¶5464 18387 21202 25048 28863 33920 40155 46350 53370 40-44 10655 12425 14787 17599 20282 24041 27795 32780 38937 45088 45-49 9114 10061 11745 14007 16670 19283 22940 26620 31515 37575 50-54 7408 8480 9357 10937 13061 15619 18141 21668 25248 30019 55-59 6057 6733 7704 8503 9942 11960 14379 16778 20133 23568 60-64 4581 5308 5894 6750 7442 8765 10637 12870 15'00 18217 65-69 3315 3783 4381 4868 5572 6190 7358 9029 11015 13015 70-74 2184 2493 2841 3297 3661 4237 4754 5720 7124 8787 75+ 1950 2242 2567 2939 3398 3905 4577 5307 6389 8024 TOTAL 269041 311395 359511 413004 471302 532677 596124 661505 727872 793098 FEMALES 0-4 48624 55481 62653 69578 76310 80683 84064 87334 89719 90059 5-9 39232 45984 52767 59961 66999 73724 78224 81788 85271 87923 10-14 33061 38472 45160 51897 59022 66032 72757 M12 80952 84525 15-19 28320 32483 37832 44441 51070 58157 65147 71882 76495 80216 20-24 23456 27708 31816 37082 43545 50131 57183 64162 70920 75612 25-29 20017 22854 27033 31067 36204 42606 49155 56182 63163 69959 30-34 16602 19437 22225 26309 30228 35319 41666 48184 55197 62193 35-39 13706 16059 18830 21555 25502 29385 34432 40727 47222 54229 40-44 11268 13193 15487 18183 20812 24690 28537 33539 39785 46259 45-49 9741 10790 12649 14876 17467 20059 23863 27668 32620 38811 50-54 8013 9242 10245 12025 14156 16684 19230 22948 2:701 31590 55-59 6602 7469 8624 9573 11236 13306 15756 18241 21855 25540 60-64 5148 5968 6764 7826 8685 10260 12246 14593 16997 20474 65-69 3847 4413 5131 5837 6754 7563 9017 10882 13087 15377 70-74 2662 3028 3485 4073 4643 5445 6176 7459 9144 11142 75+ 2622 3024 3473 4017 4698 5556 6681 7927 9677 12126 TOTAL 272921 315605 364172 418300 47M730 539600 604133 670829 738806 806034 BIRTH RATE 43.9 42.5 40.5 38.3 35.4 32.6 30.1 27.8 25.2 DEATH RATE 14.6 13.8 12.8 11.9 10.9 10.0 9.2 8.5 7.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.93 2.87 2.78 2.64 2.45 2.26 2.09 1.92 1.73 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.92 2.87 2.77 2.64 2.45 2.26 2.09 1.92 1.73 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.064 5.847 5.506 5.108 4.602 4.105 3.683 3.314 2.973 NRR 2.260 2.219 2.138 2.021 1.851 1.683 1.542 1.419 1.299 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 52.57 53.55 54.87 55.98 57.42 58.93 60.52 62.19 63.97 e(1s) - BOTH SEXES 49.33 49.35 49.55 49.47 50.37 51.32 52.31 53.36 54.46 INR - BOTH SEXES 105.1 97.9 89.4 79.6 73.8 68.1 62.2 56.1 49.6 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1647 .1524 .1376 .1205 .1115 .1025 .0933 .0835 .0732 DEP. RATIO 92.4 92.3 91.2 88.4 85.1 80.1 74.4 68.8 64.0 59.7 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 9 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods AFRICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 541962 831304 1466678 2078609 2539581 2784360 2895168 2953606 MALES 0-4 49569 70721 91417 87782 88480 88979 89058 89014 5-9 39829 60647 86554 87716 88436 88887 8899l 88938 10-14 33407 52336 82015 88149 88495 88732 88934 88908 15-19 28538 44961 77287 88130 88036 88359 88801 88844 20-24 23540 37301 71248 88100 86743 87812 88576 88692 25-29 19785 30924 62940 86120 86035 87337 88270 88452 30-34 16086 26013 54599 82007 85801 87092 87942 88177 35-39 13022 21202 46350 76931 85745 86766 87463 87838 40-44 10655 17599 38937 71474 85087 85816 86682 87360 45-49 9114 14007 31515 647 84163 83935 85645 86711 50-54 7408 10937 25248 55774 80674 82094 84283 85640 55-59 6057 8503 20133 46357 74243 79909 82509 84011 60-64 4581 6750 15100 36728 65948 76878 79909 81587 65-69 3315 4868 11015 2MO 56191 71835 75631 77896 70-74 2184 3297 7124 18937 44418 64500 68880 72439 75+ 1950 2939 6389 19829 56694 109845 140515 157222 TOTAL 269041 413004 727872 1026540 1245188 1358778 1412090 1441730 FEMALES 0-4 48624 69578 89719 85966 86259 86286 86270 86227 5-9 39232 59961 85271 86151 86430 86326 86227 86174 10-14 33061 :;1897 80952 86738 86664 86303 86180 86153 15-19 28320 4444l 76495 86946 86453 86120 86100 86134 20-24 23456 37082 70920 87291 85541 85885 86029 86118 25-29 2001? 31067 63163 85770 85203 85807 86049 86091 30-34 10.02 26309 55197 82087 85319 85925 86040 86022 35-39 13706 21555 47222 77407 85624 85976 85891 85882 40-44 11268 18183 39785 72437 85420 85510 85539 85678 45-49 9741 14876 32620 66355 85154 84243 85067 85435 50-54 8013 12025 26701 58139 82705 83300 84594 85169 55-59 6602 9573 21855 49616 77740 82475 84111 84726 60-64 5148 7826 16997 40884 71307 81375 83297 83956 65-69 3847 5837 13087 32366 63832 79073 81576 82693 70-74 2662 4073 9144 23798 54220 75411 78322 80739 75+ 2622 4017 9677 30118 86520 165567 211786 234678 TOTAL 272921 418300 738806 1052069 1294392 1425582 1483079 1511876 BIRTH RATE 42.2 32.2 20.8 15.3 13.2 12.3 12.0 DEATH RATE 13.6 9.9 7.1 7.4 9.6 10.8 11.2 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.85 2.27 1.39 .80 .37 .16 .08 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.778 4.037 2.481 2.079 2.059 2.046 2.043 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 53.77 59.36 68.05 75.60 79.65 83.01 84.35 IMR - BOTH SEXES 96.9 67.6 37.3 15.4 7.7 2.9 2.5 * 10 WORLD, GEOORAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS EAST AFRICA Population Projection (thousands) AGE . a 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 233001 271890 316564 367230 423099 483136 547163 614317 683620 752726 MALES 0-4 21432 25475 29161 3S*63 36874 39574 42184 44383 46078 46572 5-9 17076 20179 24085 27703 31596 35374 38118 40794 43092 44921 10-14 14386 16738 19789 23641 27197 31064 34832 37595 40299 42637 15-19 12242 14113 16424 19418 23187 26711 30554 34314 37096 39829 20-24 10047 11899 13739 15987 18878 22599 26086 29902 33656 36468 25-29 8371 9692 11513 13293 15447 18293 21965 25417 29211 32967 30-34 6785 8052 9358 11112 12813 14937 17741 21370 24794 28575 35-39 5641 6501 7740 8998 10665 12340 14435 17199 20788 24190 40-44 4593 5368 6204 7387 8578 10198 11844 13907 16631 20176 45-49 3880 4328 5065 5859 6964 8122 9689 11301 13326 16000 50-54 3121 3601 4016 4701 5433 6488 7605 9108 10674 12646 55-59 2549 2828 3258 3634 4246 4941 5932 6994 8417 9919 60-64 1917 2225 2462 2835 3153 3713 4358 5267 6254 7571 65-69 1387 1573 1820 2015 2308 2594 3085 3662 4465 5351 70-74 887 1036 1169 1351 1488 1725 1966 2370 2856 3524 75+ 827 920 1044 1177 1334 1522 1792 2110 2574 3188 TOTAL 115141 134530 156846 182174 210160 240194 272186 305694 340210 374535 FEMALES 0-4 21240 25220 28843 32664 36377 39009 41554 43696 45340 45801 5-9 16913 20057 23911 27476 31299 34993 37678 40295 42539 44318 10-14 14280 16583 19674 23475 26971 30771 34461 37170 39820 42110 15-19 12287 14021 16283 19314 23027 26494 30275 33965 36701 39389 20-24 10130 12002 13707 15912 18840 22519 25958 29723 33417 36191 25-29 8589 9849 11684 13339 15457 18347 21993 25408 29162 32870 30-34 7053 8323 9557 11327 12904 14998 17854 21470 24866 28618 35-39 5989 6810 8041 9232 10906 12468 14541 17363 20953 24336 40-44 4866 5757 6550 7731 8857 10490 '2037 14088 16878 20444 45-49 4157 4655 5505 6264 7375 8485 10077 11606 13634 16391 50-54 3366 3937 4405 5209 5917 6995 8084 9631 11138 13137 55-59 2768 3130 3656 4092 4823 5514 6552 7614 9108 10587 60-64 2214 2493 2816 3288 3667 4353 5020 6007 7032 8459 65-69 1664 1890 2124 2401 2787 3145 3772 4403 5321 6295 70-74 1143 1303 1476 1659 1866 2198 2522 3068 3643 4465 75+ 1202 1330 1486 1674 1867 2161 2599 3117 3858 4782 TOTAL 117860 137360 159718 185056 212939 242942 274976 308623 343410 378191 BIRTH RATE 46.4 45.2 43.6 41.4 38.4 35.7 33.1 30.4 27.5 DEATH RATE 15.2 14.8 13.9 13.1 11.9 10.8 9.9 9.1 8.3 RATE OF MAT. INC. 3.12 3.05 2.97 2.83 2.66 2.49 2.32 2.14 1.93 NET MIGRATION RATE -.4 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTN RATE 3.09 3.04 2.97 2.83 2.65 2.49 2.32 2.14 1.93 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.410 6.300 6.067 5.704 5.167 4.644 4.142 3.693 3.269 NRR 2.376 2.346 2.295 2.192 2.026 1.858 1.696 1.551 1.405 oCO) - BOTH SEXES 52.03 52.26 53.12 53.73 55.24 56.83 58.50 60.27 62.15 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 49.06 48.60 48.48 47.91 48.88 49.90 50.97 52.10 53.30 INR - BOTH SEXES 108.9 104.2 96.6 86.6 80.3 74.1 68.0 61.5 54.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1700 .1623 .1492 .1316 .1218 .1120 .1023 .0918 .0809 DEP. RATIO 93.3 94.8 95.4 94.4 91.3 86.5 80.8 74.7 69.3 64.1 WORLD, GEOGRAPHlIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 11 Suwnary P-oJection for 25-Year Periods EAST AFRICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 233001 367230 683620 1006183 1260265 1399234 1457517 1487756 MALES 0-4 21432 33063 46078 43916 44530 44821 44851 44817 5-9 17076 27703 43092 44167 44639 44813 44818 447m 10-14 14386 23641 40299 44742 44771 44728 44771 44755 15-19 12242 19418 37096 44838 44479 44479 44686 44722 20-24 10047 15987 33656 44596 43553 44152 44576 44655 25-29 8371 13293 29211 43277 43036 43949 44461 44545 30-34 6785 11112 24794 40754 43196 43955 44334 44406 35-39 5641 8998 20788 37l05 43514 43890 44083 44217 40-44 4593 7387 16631 34188 43280 43348 43628 43956 45-49 3880 5859 13326 30458 42590 42133 43053 43632 50-54 3121 4701 10674 25722 40517 41048 42399 43129 55-59 2549 3634 8417 20869 36855 40200 41621 42341 60-64 1917 2835 6254 16286 32247 38961 40390 41105 65-69 1387 2015 4465 11635 26759 36453 38162 39182 70-74 887 1351 2856 7802 20708 32519 34523 36381 75+ 827 1177 2574 7949 25152 54189 70521 79162 TOTAL 115141 182174 340210 498905 619827 683637 710877 725780 FEMALES 0-4 21240 32664 45340 43076 43493 43569 43559 43527 5-9 16913 27476 42539 43447 43699 43621 43536 43496 10-14 14280 23475 39820 64094 43912 43596 43494 43479 15-19 12287 19314 36701 44291 43739 43438 43434 43469 20-24 10130 15912 33417 44207 42998 43261 43401 43469 25-29 8589 13339 29162 63066 42668 43250 43446 43465 30-34 7053 11327 24866 40696 43000 43428 43470 43428 35-39 5989 9232 20953 37784 43491 47V 5 43378 43338 40-44 4866 7731 16878 34428 43462 43234 43131 43213 45-49 4157 6264 13634 30920 43053 42307 42830 43090 50-54 3366 5209 11138 26493 41427 41660 42611 42983 55-59 2768 4092 9108 22009 38401 41484 42468 42780 60-64 2214 3288 7032 17821 34616 41206 42121 42363 65-69 1664 2401 5321 13394 30068 40039 41147 41641 70-74 1143 1659 3643 9615 24890 37831 39188 40566 75+ 1202 1674 3858 11935 37522 80128 105430 117667 TOTAL 117860 185056 343410 507278 640438 715598 746641 761976 BIRTH RATE 45.0 35.2 22.2 15.8 13.3 12.4 12.0 DEATH RATE 14.5 10.7 7.0 6.9 9.2 10.7 11.2 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.03 2.49 1.55 .90 .42 .16 .08 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.242 4.517 2.612 2.081 2.058 2.044 2.041 etO) - BOTH SEXES 52.52 57.32 66.76 75.07 79.31 82.84 84.24 IMR - BOTH SEXES 102.7 73.5 41.0 16.3 8.1 3.0 2.5 1E WORLD, OEOGRAPHIC REOIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS WEST AFRICA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 185408 214927 248674 287080 329757 374622 420334 467641 515197 561493 MALES 0-4 17632 19837 22510 25414 28263 29866 30761 31989 32546 32333 5-9 13911 16437 18624 21310 24250 27076 28728 29712 31025 31694 10-14 11456 13555 16036 18198 20852 23774 26595 28273 29298 30649 15-19 9595 11189 13241 1ISS72 1778? 20420 23325 26145 27848 28914 20-24 706 9298 10836 19823 15171 17264 19870 22760 25582 27322 25-29 6353 7516 8945 10419 12325 14629 16701 19287 22167 24998 30-34 5207 6102 7212 8580 9986 11856 14121 16179 18751 21627 35-39 4379 4978 5827 6885 8186 9s62 11397 13629 15677 18238 40-44 3707 4150 4713 5516 6513 7778 9122 10923 13120 15156 45-49 3089 3470 3881 4407 5154 6116 7339 8650 10409 12564 50-54 2500 2842 3189 3567 4048 4760 5678 6851 8117 9822 55-59 1968 2241 2545 2856 3193 3645 4311 5174 6281 7485 60-64 1487 1694 1927 2189 2454 2763 3177 3785 4574 5591 65-69 1039 1200 1365 1554 1763 1994 2265 2A28 3158 3850 70-74 658 755 871 92 1127 1294 1481 17g3 2000 2431 75+ 533 613 702 810 924 1073 1259 1481 1748 2094 TOTAL 91320 105876 122424 141191 161997 183869 206133 229170 252302 274768 FEMALES 0-4 17459 19686 22300 25133 27899 29480 30363 31575 32125 31915 5-9 13962 16362 1P'i4 21246 24137 26894 28525 29491 30787 31442 10-14 11651 1364. 16027 18256 20901 23780 26534 28186 29185 30514 15-19 9726 11419 13391 15757 17964 20596 23466 26222 27895 28926 20-24 7905 9499 11165 13114 15440 17632 20253 23117 25879 27580 25-29 6586 7688 9250 10890 12800 15103 17282 19896 22759 25533 30-34 5537 6377 7456 8988 10591 12480 14761 16933 19542 22408 31s-39 4677 5334 6157 7215 8707 10288 12157 14419 16584 19192 40-44 3949 4481 5124 5950 6956 8421 9980 11829 14071 16231 45-49 3295 3763 4281 4908 5686 6692 8128 9663 11490 13710 50-54 2721 3108 3560 4061 4661 5421 6402 7803 9309 11109 55-59 2186 2518 2887 3317 3789 4369 5106 6056 7414 8884 60-64 1690 1957 2266 2609 3004 3453 4006 4711 5621 6922 65-69 1223 1429 1667 1942 2243 2605 3021 3537 4197 5052 70-74 808 943 1114 1311 1534 1795 2112 2480 2941 3535 75+ 713 846 1010 1213 1449 1745 2107 2554 3095 3775 TOTAL 94088 109052 126250 145889 167761 190754 214201 238471 262896 286725 BIRTH RATE 46.0 44.4 42.6 40.5 37.2 33.7 31.1 28.3 25.5 DEATH RATE 16.5 15.2 13.9 12.8 11.6 10.6 9.7 9.0 8.3 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.95 2.91 2.87 2.77 2.55 2.31 2.14 1.94 1.72 NET MIGRATION RATE .1 .0 .0 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.95 2.92 2.87 2.77 2.55 2.30 2.13 1.94 1.72 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.298 6.158 5.797 5.378 4.806 4.212 3.755 3.315 2.919 NRR 2.278 2.288 2.220 2.116 1.928 1.726 1.571 1.415 1.271 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 49.02 50.50 52.16 53.63 55.22 56.87 58.58 60.37 62.23 eIS) - BOTH SEXES 47.13 47.53 47.93 48.08 49.07 50.10 51.17 52.29 53.44 INR - BOTH SEXES 113.1 103.8 93.4 82.5 76.7 70.8 64.8 58.8 52.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1809 .1640 .1455 .1262 .1169 .1075 .0978 .0881 .0782 DEP. RATIO 96.5 96.1 94.5 91.8 89.1 84.3 77.7 70.7 64.6 59.4 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 13 Summary Projection for 25-Year Period& WEST A ICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 ennl 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 185408 287080 515197 729542 891506 977588 101980? 1042986 MALES 0-4 17632 25414 32546 31199 31245 31440 314857 .1481 5-9 15911 21310 310 '5 30879 31093 31362 31464 31457 10-14 11456 18198 29291 30736 31013 31300 31456 31451 15-19 959s 15672 27848 30625 30877 31200 31422 31426 20-24 7806 12823 25582 30835 30608 31024 31333 31362 25-29 6353 10419 22167 30397 30487 30796 31176 31265 30-34 520? 8580 18751 29151 30124 30578 31012 31166 35-39 4379 6885 15677 27213 29804 30357 30830 31055 40-44 3707 5516 13120 25436 29454 30037 30579 30894 45-49 3089 4407 10409 22903 29314 29540 30221 30650 50-54 2500 3567 8117 19254 28286 28984 29667 30215 55-59 1968 2856 6281 15485 26133 27903 2tsi9o 29578 60-64 1487 2189 4574 11941 22963 26498 27837 286&7 65-69 1039 1554 3158 8807 19479 24540 26290 27372 70-74 658 992 2000 5724 15027 21998 23972 25402 75+ 533 810 1748 5177 16856 35993 47288 53919 TOTAL 91320 141191 252302 355761 432762 473551 494922 507382 FEMALES 0-4 17459 25133 32125 30797 30657 30608 30604 30597 5-9 13962 21246 30787 30592 30614 30597 30591 30581 10-14 11651 18256 29185 30518 30623 30601 30588 30579 15-19 9726 15757 27895 30511 30601 30590 30574 30571 20-24 M5 13114 25s79 30897 30495 30549 30543 30558 25-29 6586 10890 22759 30678 30511 30490 30523 30540 30-34 5537 8988 19542 29653 30285 30429 30494 30517 35-39 4677 7215 16584 27928 30112 30372 30453 30481 40-44 3949 5930 14071 26426 29958 30258 30379 30422 45-49 3295 4908 11490 24209 30121 30021 30252 30329 50-54 2721 4061 9309 20917 29556 29814 30051 30206 55-59 2186 3317 7414 17498 28046 29252 29774 30021 60-64 1690 2609 5621 14250 25664 28584 29408 29756 65-69 1223 1942 4197 11298 23179 27682 28840 29353 70-74 808 1311 2941 8188 19601 26602 27870 28689 75+ 713 1213 3095 9420 28720 57588 73941 82405 TOTAL 94088 145889 262896 373781 458743 504037 524885 535605 BIRTH RATE 44.2 33.5 21.0 15.4 13.3 12.4 12.1 DEATH RATE 15.1 10.5 7.3 7.5 9.7 10.8 11.2 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.91 2.34 1.39 .80 .37 .17 .09 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.058 4.141 2.435 2.077 2.056 2.'43 2.040 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 50.71 57.32 A6.63 74.67 79.11 82.73 84.17 IMR - BOTH SEXES 102.7 70.4 *,'.2 17.3 8.5 3.0 2.5 14 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS NORTH AFRICA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 l990 l995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 123553 140182 1586 .5 176994 195776 214519 232760 250377 267861 284912 MALES 0-4 10505 10961 11945 12244 12523 12699 12659 12582 12793 12899 5-9 8842 10093 10605 11633 11987 12288 12492 12483 12438 12679 10-14 7565 8722 9975 10497 11531 11893 12201 12415 12418 12385 15-19 6702 7471 8622 9872 10397 11433 11802 12118 12342 12355 20-24 5687 6580 r347 8492 9733 10265 11305 11684 12011 12247 25-29 5061 5557 644 7212 8346 9567 10128 11171 11563 11904 30-34 4094 4939 5435 6321 7083 8215 9455 10005 11054 11459 35-39 3002 3985 4820 5318 6197 6960 8088 9327 9886 10942 40-44 2355 2906 3870 4696 5191 6066 6828 7950 9187 9755 45-49 2145 2263 2799 3741 4552 5045 5911 6669 7780 9011 50-54 1787 2037 2152 2668 3580 4372 4859 5709 6457 7551 55-59 1540 1664 1901 2013 2503 3374 4135 4610 5435 6164 60-64 1177 1390 1505 1726 1835 2289 3101 3818 4272 5055 65-69 e88 1010 1196 1300 1501 1602 2008 2739 3392 3814 70-74 639 701 802 954 1045 "17 1307 1647 2267 2831 75+ 591 709 820 951 1140 1310 1526 1716 2067 2742 TOTAL 62580 70989 80240 89639 99145 108614 117805 126642 135361 143795 FEMALES 0-4 9924 10575 11509 11781 12035 12195 12148 12062 12254 12343 5-9 8357 9565 10262 11240 11564 11837 12022 12002 11945 12163 10-14 7130 8247 9458 10165 11149 11481 11762 11956 11947 11902 15-19 6307 7044 815s 9369 10079 11067 11406 11695 11899 11901 20-24 5421 6208 6943 8056 9265 9981 1N973 11323 11623 11840 25-29 4841 5317 6099 6838 7946 9157 9879 10879 11242 11556 30-34 4013 4737 5211 5994 6733 7840 9051 9782 10789 11167 35-39 3041 3915 4631 5107 5888 6629 7734 8946 9685 10702 40-44 2452 2955 3813 4522 4999 5778 6520 7622 8836 9584 45-49 2289 2372 2862 3705 4405 4882 5658 6399 7497 8711 50-54 1927 2197 2279 2756 3578 4268 4744 5514 6253 7344 55-59 1647 1822 2081 2164 2624 3422 4098 4571 5333 6068 60-64 1244 1517 1683 1930 2014 2454 3219 3875 4343 5093 65-69 960 1094 1339 1494 1725 1813 2223 2942 3569 4031 70-74 712 781 895 1103 1244 1452 1542 1911 2561 3142 75i 707 848 978 1130 1382 1650 1976 2257 2724 3569 TOTAL 60973 69194 78204 87355 96631 105905 114955 123735 132500 141117 BIRTH RATE 36.2 34.3 30.8 28.0 25.6 23.3 21.3 20.0 18.8 DEATH RATE 10.6 9.6 8.6 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.56 2.47 2.23 2.02 1.83 1.63 1.46 1.35 1.23 NET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.53 2.45 2.21 2.02 1.83 1.63 1.46 1.35 1.23 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.032 4.547 4.012 3.541 3.147 2.797 2.531 2.401 2.306 NRR 2.022 1.879 1.7(6 1.537 1.379 1.241 1.142 1.099 1.071 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 58.99 60.84 62.74 64.62 66.01 67.44 68.92 70.47 7.os eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 53.17 53.65 54.30 55.07 55.89 56.74 57.62 58.53 59.49 IHR - BOTH SEXES 80.1 69.7 59.7 50.5 45.1 39.7 33.9 28.2 22.2 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .1208 .1031 .0866 .0717 .0641 .0562 .0479 .0395 .0308 DEP. RATIO 85.1 82.3 78.7 72.7 67.4 61.2 56.3 53.0 50.9 49.6 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 15 Sunnary Projection for 25-Year Periods NORTH AFRICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 123553 176994 267861 342883 387810 407537 417844 422864 MALES 0-4 10505 12244 12793 12667 12705 12719 12719 12716 5-9 8842 11633 12438 12670 12704 12711 12710 12706 10-14 7565 10497 12418 12670 12710 12704 12706 12703 15-19 6702 9872 12342 12667 12679 12680 12694 12696 20-24 5687 8492 12011 12669 12581 12637 12668 12675 25-29 5061 7212 11563 12446 12512 12591 12633 12642 30-34 4094 6321 11054 12101 12481 12560 12596 12606 35-39 3002 5318 9886 12013 12427 12520 12549 12565 40-44 2355 4696 9187 11849 12353 12430 12475 12510 45-49 2145 3741 7780 11417 12259 12262 12372 12429 50-54 1787 2668 6457 10798 11870 12061 12217 12296 55-59 1540 2013 5435 10003 11256 11807 11999 12093 60-64 1177 1726 4272 8501 10738 114o9 11682 11795 65-69 888 1300 3392 ,288 9952 10843 11179 11342 70-74 639 954 2267 5411 8683 9983 10386 10655 75+ 591 951 2067 6703 14686 19663 22706 24141 TOTAL 62580 89639 135361 171873 192600 201590 206291 208568 FEMALES 0-4 9924 11781 12254 12092 12110 12109 12107 12103 5-9 8357 11240 11945 12112 12117 12108 12101 12097 10-14 7130 10165 11947 12126 12129 12105 12097 12095 15-19 6307 9369 11899 12144 12113 12092 12091 12093 20-24 5421 8056 11623 12187 12048 12075 12085 12091 25-29 4841 6838 11242 12025 12024 12066 12082 12086 30-34 4013 5994 10789 11738 12035 12068 12077 12077 35-39 3041 5107 9685 11695 12021 12061 12060 12063 40-44 2452 4522 8836 11583 12000 12018 12029 12043 45-49 2289 3705 7497 11226 11981 11915 11985 12016 50-54 1927 2756 6253 10729 11722 11826 11933 11980 55-59 1647 2164 5333 10108 11292 11739 11869 11925 60-64 1244 1930 4343 8813 11027 11585 11769 11837 65-69 960 1494 3569 7673 10585 11351 11589 11700 70-74 712 1103 2561 5995 9729 10979 11264 11484 75+ 707 1130 2724 8763 20278 27851 32415 34605 TOTAL 60973 87355 132500 171010 19521' 205948 211553 214295 BIRTH RATE 33.6 23.3 16.6 13.6 12.5 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 9.5 7.0 6.8 8.7 10.5 11.0 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.40 1.66 .99 .49 .20 .10 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.480 2.826 2.188 2.078 2.068 2.062 2.060 etO) - BOTH SEXES 61.01 67.73 74.54 79.27 82.06 84.28 8'.14 IHR - BOTH SEXES 69.6 39.5 16.6 7.2 4.3 2.5 2.2 16 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS AMERICA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROtP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 667381 720914 776830 829875 879231 926593 973651 1019274 1061325 1098600 MALES 0-4 37M71 39329 40225 39093 37856 38000 39031 39577 39369 38912 5-9 34789 37373 39080 40031 38940 37727 37889 38933 39489 39290 10-14 33525 34668 37295 39017 39973 3888 37683 37849 38892 39449 15-19 32300 33359 34548 37187 38914 39872 38798 37602 37769 38813 20-24 31568 32038 33180 34395 37037 38758 39716 38649 37453 37616 25-29 28587 31267 31847 33019 34244 3686s 3858o 39530 38459 37259 30-34 25059 28304 31064 31676 32857 34075 36o86 38389 39329 38259 35-39 20o30 24774 28074 30843 31471 32647 33862 36462 38158 39097 40-44 16820 20614 24476 27773 30539 31166 32340 33554 36140 37836 45*49 14052 16440 20215 24043 27322 30058 30694 31871 33091 35674 50-54 12428 13552 15911 19617 23382 26605 29303 29957 31146 32385 55-59 11529 11742 12852 15151 18754 22406 25556 28207 28898 30117 60-64 10055 10571 10817 11901 14116 17562 21066 24124 26723 27476 65-69 7941 8804 9325 9612 10662 12746 15976 19282 22215 24740 70-74 5974 6442 7238 7762 8103 9073 10973 13909 16940 19692 75+ 7120 7616 8483 9755 11081 12181 13664 16236 20405 25695 TOTAL 330398 356894 384628 410875 435251 458634 481818 504131 52"476 542309 FEMALES 0-4 36417 37765 38586 37466 36242 36353 37312 37806 37580 37115 5-9 33717 36135 37581 38453 37366 3616C 36284 37252 37751 37529 10-14 32518 33630 36095 37557 38431 37347 361"4 36269 37233 3MO 15-19 31422 32431 33596 36074 37537 38407 37323 36121 36241 37201 20-24 31116 31316 32416 33604 36075 37526 38386 37296 36082 36188 25-29 28459 30994 31304 32430 33612 36065 37501 38349 37243 36013 30-34 25197 28324 30940 31276 32401 33571 36011 37438 38272 37158 35-39 21234 25041 28223 30852 31193 32310 33476 35909 37330 38160 40-44 17221 21053 24883 28069 30695 31037 32153 33320 35749 37172 45-49 14543 17003 20833 24650 27831 30445 30793 31914 33088 35519 50-54 13070 14265 16721 20525 24319 27476 30076 30438 31568 32756 55-59 12428 12701 13902 16341 20109 23854 26985 29569 29955 31104 60-64 11231 11899 12203 13409 15830 19530 23214 26315 28889 29317 65-69 9314 10479 11166 11518 12738 15104 18716 22323 25396 27970 70-74 7595 8287 9427 10147 10568 11756 14044 17531 21038 24083 75+ 11500 12694 14327 16629 19033 21017 23416 27292 33435 41277 TOTAL 336983 364020 392202 419000 443980 467959 491834 515143 536849 556291 BIRTH RATE 23.3 21.9 19.7 17.8 16.9 16.4 15.8 15.0 14.2 DEATH RATE 7.9 7.3 6.8 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.54 1.47 1-'9 1.13 1.03 .97 .90 .80 .69 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .3 .3 .3 .2 .2 .1 .1 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.54 1.49 1.32 1.16 1.05 .99 .92 .81 .69 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.823 2.697 2.486 2.291 2.188 2.151 2.122 2.096 2.080 NRR 1.301 1.246 1.162 1.078 1.033 1.019 1.011 1.004 1.001 oCO) - BOTH SEXES 70.32 71.59 72.90 74.21 75.09 76.02 77.00 78.03 79.11 etis) - BOTH SEXES 58.71 59.58 60.49 61.43 62.04 62.68 63.35 64.07 64.82 IMR - BOTH SEXES 41.9 36.1 30.6 25.3 21.5 17.7 13.9 10.2 6.5 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0516 .0441 .0371 .0308 .0263 .0218 .0174 .0129 .0086 DEP. RATIO 63.1 61.0 59.2 55.7 52.1 49.4 49.2 51.0 53.5 55.8 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 17 Sumary Projection for 25-Year Periods AMERICA AflE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 215u TOTAL M+F 667381 829875 1061325 1201001 1259882 1285224 1300544 1308110 MALES 0-4 37721 39093 39369 39174 39032 38987 38987 38990 5-9 34789 40031 39489 39011 38928 38940 38960 38965 10-14 33525 39017 38892 38732 38870 38944 38965 38963 15-19 32300 37187 37769 38548 38885 38954 38951 38941 20-24 31568 34395 37453 38643 38920 38907 38876 38871 25-29 28587 33019 38459 38899 38852 38764 38751 38765 30-34 25059 31676 39329 38902 38586 38570 38624 38661 35-39 20930 30843 38158 38139 38165 38389 38519 38565 40-44 16820 27773 36140 36825 37803 38252 38398 38429 45-49 14052 24043 33091 36252 37672 38099 38184 38200 50-54 12428 19617 31146 36714 37515 37693 37742 37793 55-59 11529 15151 28898 36659 36818 36859 37047 37195 60-64 10055 11901 26723 34258 35063 35598 36111 36376 65-69 7941 9612 22215 30582 32356 33965 34817 35157 70-74 5974 7762 16940 25463 29600 31852 32874 33250 75+ 7120 9755 20405 44421 62635 69832 74497 76914 TOTAL 330398 410875 524476 591222 619700 632604 640304 644034 FEMALES 0-4 36417 37466 37580 37319 37169 37124 37123 37126 5-9 33717 38453 37751 37190 37081 37089 37106 37110 10-14 32518 37557 37233 36945 37031 37097 37114 37112 15-19 31422 36074 36241 36815 37069 37126 37118 37108 20-24 31116 33604 36082 37001 37169 37139 37101 37092 25-29 28459 32430 37243 37397 37216 37094 37065 37071 30-34 25197 31276 38272 37540 37067 36995 37025 37052 35-39 21234 30852 37330 36950 36769 36907 37003 37035 40-44 17221 28069 35749 35865 36567 36892 36994 37006 45-49 14543 24650 33088 35565 36650 36919 36952 36942 50-54 13070 20525 31568 36466 36872 36845 36815 36828 55-59 12428 16341 29955 37097 36752 36515 36580 36672 60-64 11231 13409 28889 35649 35804 35962 36297 36485 65-69 9314 11518 25396 33366 34219 35382 35994 36229 70-74 7595 10147 21038 29716 33064 34833 35542 35780 75+ 11500 16629 33435 68900 93682 102703 108410 111428 TOTAL 336983 419000 536849 609779 640183 652621 660240 664076 BIRTH RATE 21.6 16.3 13.4 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.3 6.7 8.5 10.5 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .2 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.45 .98 .49 .19 .08 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.662 2.167 2.073 2.064 2.061 2.059 2.059 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 71.67 76.16 80.39 82.93 84.35 85.44 85.87 IMR - BOTH SEXES 36.2 17.7 5.2 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 18 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS IATIN AMERICA AND T E CARIBBEAN Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 399445 440766 483233 524032 562470 600038 637907 674790 709550 741083 MALES 0-4 27401 28555 28951 28215 27203 27275 28052 28388 28157 27794 5-9 25104 26927 28171 28635 27966 27006 27122 27927 28292 28089 10-14 23657 24890 26748 28016 28504 27861 26927 27058 27876 28254 15-19 21630 23408 24678 26557 27849 28360 27745 26829 26974 27806 20-24 19511 21203 23051 24366 26285 27612 28162 27573 26683 26850 25-29 16310 18989 20775 22679 24050 26008 27379 27951 27392 26533 30-34 13730 15851 18599 20433 22382 23791 25783 27169 27764 27234 35-39 11048 13341 15511 18282 20151 22124 23561 25562 26964 27581 40-44 9035 10709 13021 15201 17980 19861 21845 23290 25296 26713 45-49 7642 8711 10383 12676 14850 17607 19487 21467 22918 24928 50-54 6451 7284 8340 9978 12226 14362 17074 18942 20914 22375 55-59 5494 6018 6822 7842 9421 11590 13668 16313 18168 20135 60-64 4348 4955 5449 6208 7174 8669 10728 12726 15281 17121 65-69 3229 3719 4262 4720 5421 6319 7698 9603 11483 13906 70-74 2393 2535 2941 3409 3828 4450 5250 6467 8157 9862 75+ 2612 2799 3027 3470 4134 4859 5777 6976 8682 11099 TOTAL 199595 219893 240729 260686 279422 297753 316259 33 1 351001 366280 FEMALES 0-4 26578 27517 27866 27125 26118 26163 26884 27179 26934 26561 5-9 24481 26161 27191 27603 26921 25961 26046 26792 27112 26891 10-14 23134 24296 26015 27069 27503 26845 25907 26004 26760 27092 15-19 21181 22942 24145 25885 26961 27417 26780 25855 25964 26730 20-24 19287 20875 22707 23947 25723 26832 27320 26701 25794 25918 25-29 16289 18934 20607 22479 23763 25575 26721 27224 26624 25737 30-34 13825 15989 18696 20403 22310 23623 25461 26618 27136 26554 35-39 11161 13577 15785 18510 20241 22165 23497 25342 26512 27043 40-44 9176 10958 13392 15608 18340 20079 22011 23350 25201 26383 45-49 7840 8988 10774 13200 15416 18138 19879 21811 23156 25014 50-54 6709 7632 8782 10557 12966 15164 17866 19604 21536 22891 55-59 5784 6459 7381 8523 10281 12652 14826 17500 19236 21169 60-64 4690 5454 6130 7045 8181 9899 12218 14360 17002 18743 65-69 3602 4257 5003 5679 6590 7693 9358 11609 13714 16321 70-74 2790 3054 3670 4390 5064 5932 6989 8576 10733 12790 75+ 3323 3781 4361 5325 6670 8147 9885 12021 14934 18966 TOTAL 199850 220873 242504 263347 283048 302284 321647 340549 358349 374804 BIRTH RATE 28.4 26.0 23.0 20.4 19.0 18.2 17.3 16.2 15.1 DEATH RATE 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.12 1.94 1.69 1.46 1.32 1.24 1.13 1.00 .88 NET MIGRATICN RATE -1.5 -.9 -.7 -.5 -.3 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.97 1.84 1.62 1.42 1.29 1.22 1.12 1.00 .88 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.532 3.116 2. '37 2.421 2.261 2.200 2.154 2.114 2.087 NRR 1.581 1.416 1.260 1.126 1.058 1.036 1.021 1.009 1.003 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 66.83 68.39 69.98 71.56 72.66 73.80 74.99 76.23 77.53 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 56.69 57.61 58.57 59.60 60.28 61.01 61.76 62.56 63.40 IMR - BOTH SEXES 53.1 46.2 39.0 32.3 27.4 22.5 17.6 12.7 7.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0653 .0562 .0472 .0391 .0333 .0275 .0217 .0160 .0102 DEP. RATIO 72.8 68.1 63.8 58.6 53.5 49.4 47.7 47.9 48.9 50.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 19 Sumary Projection for 25-Year Periods LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTA M+F 399445 524032 709350 838581 893748 915957 929020 935392 MALES 0-4 27401 28215 28157 28048 27944 27904 2792 27904 5-9 25104 28635 28292 27940 27867 27868 27882 27886 10-14 23657 28016 27876 27722 27814 27867 27885 27885 15-19 21630 26557 26974 27541 27814 27875 27876 27869 20-24 19511 24366 26683 27571 27838 27844 27823 27819 25-29 16310 22679 27392 27774 27801 27743 27731 27741 30-34 13730 20433 27764 27821 27615 27598 27636 27665 35-39 11048 18282 26964 27278 27289 27454 27556 27594 40-44 9035 15201 25296 26234 26972 27339 27466 27496 45-49 7642 12676 22918 25746 26830 27223 27312 27330 50-54 6451 9978 20914 26031 26718 26933 26991 27034 55-59 5494 7842 18168 25698 26227 26321 26478 26596 60-64 4348 6208 15281 23939 24924 25368 25779 25995 65-69 3229 4720 11483 21005 22826 24108 24818 25107 70-74 2393 3409 8157 17084 20692 22501 23394 23724 75+ 2612 3470 8682 25496 42120 48574 52578 54588 TOTAL 199595 260686 351001 412929 439291 450521 457107 460235 FEMALES 0-4 26578 27125 26934 26757 26644 26604 26601 26603 5-9 24481 27603 27112 26677 26578 26577 26588 26592 10-14 23134 27069 26760 26489 26532 26579 26594 26593 15-19 21181 25885 25964 26356 26549 26600 26598 26590 20-24 19287 23947 25794 26463 26623 26614 26586 26579 25-29 16289 22479 26624 26779 26674 26585 26559 26563 30-34 13825 20403 27136 26934 26577 26510 26527 26547 35-39 11161 18510 26512 26524 26348 26434 26508 26535 40-44 9176 15608 25201 25654 26157 26410 26499 26514 45-49 7840 13200 23156 25370 26181 26426 26471 26467 50-54 6709 10557 21536 25989 26356 26383 26372 26383 55-59 5784 8523 19236 26182 26300 26144 26193 26263 60-64 4690 7045 17002 2514#9 25600 25714 25968 26119 65-69 3602 5679 13714 23274 24328 25227 25725 25927 70-74 2790 4390 10733 20438 23359 24757 25377 25594 75+ 3323 5325 14934 40617 63650 71873 76747 79291 TOTAL 199850 263347 358349 425652 454457 465436 471913 475158 BIRTH RATE 25.6 18.1 14.1 12.6 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.6 5.9 7.4 10.0 11.1 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.81 1.21 .67 .25 .10 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.096 2.224 2.076 2.064 2.061 2.058 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 68.49 73.99 79.14 82.25 83.95 85.24 85.75 IMR - BOTH SEXES 46.2 22.4 6.1 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.1 20 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS NORTHIERN AMERICA Poputation Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 267936 280148 293597 305843 316761 326556 335745 344484 351975 357517 MALES 0-4 10320 10775 11274 10878 10653 10725 10979 11189 11212 11118 5-9 9685 10446 10909 11396 10974 10722 10767 11006 11198 11201 10-14 9868 9778 10547 11002 11469 11028 10756 10792 11017 11195 15-19 10670 9951 9870 10630 11066 11512 11053 10773 10795 11007 20-24 12058 10835 10129 10029 10751 11146 11554 11076 10770 10766 25-29 12277 12278 11072 10340 10194 10859 11202 11579 11067 10726 30-34 11329 12454 12465 11243 10475 10284 10903 11220 11565 11025 35-39 9882 11433 12563 12561 11320 10523 10301 10900 11194 11516 40-44 7785 9905 11455 12572 12559 11305 10494 10264 10845 11123 45-49 6410 7729 9832 11367 12472 12452 11207 10404 10173 10745 50-54 5977 6267 7571 9640 11157 12243 12229 11015 10232 10009 55-59 6035 5724 6030 7309 9334 10817 11887 11894 10730 9983 60-64 5707 5616 5368 5693 6942 8892 10338 11398 11441 10355 65-69 4712 5085 5063 4892 5241 6427 8278 9678 10732 10834 70-74 3581 3907 4297 4353 4275 4623 5723 7442 8782 9830 75+ 4508 4817 5455 6286 6948 7322 7887 9259 11723 14596 TOTAL 130803 137001 143899 150190 155829 160881 165558 169889 173475 176029 FEMALES 0-4 9839 10248 10721 10341 10124 10190 10429 10627 10646 10554 5-9 9236 9974 10391 10850 10445 10199 10238 10461 10639 10639 10-14 9384 9334 10080 10489 10928 10502 10237 10265 10473 10638 15-19 10242 9489 9451 10189 10575 10990 10542 10265 10277 10470 20-24 11829 10441 9709 9657 10352 10693 11066 10595 10288 10269 25-29 12170 12060 10697 9950 9849 10490 10781 11125 10619 10276 30-34 11372 12335 12243 10873 10090 9949 10551 10820 11136 10603 35-39 10072 11464 12439 12342 10952 10145 9979 10567 10818 11116 40-44 8045 10095 11491 12461 12355 10958 10141 9970 10547 10790 45-49 6703 8016 10059 11450 12415 12307 10915 10103 9931 10505 50-54 6361 6633 7939 9968 11353 12312 12209 10833 10032 9865 55-59 6644 6242 6521 7817 9828 11202 12159 12069 10719 9934 60-64 6541 6445 6073 6364 7649 9632 10996 11955 11886 10574 65-69 5712 6222 6163 5839 6149 7411 9358 10714 11682 11649 70-74 4805 5234 5757 5757 5503 5824 7056 8955 10305 11293 75+ 8177 8913 9966 11304 12364 12870 13531 15271 18501 22311 TOTAL 137133 143147 149698 155653 160932 165675 170186 174595 178500 181487 BIRTH RATE 15.4 15.4 14.2 13.4 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.6 12.3 OEATH RATE 8.8 8.3 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.5 9.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. .66 .71 .62 .55 .50 .48 .46 .41 .31 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.1 .7 .5 .2 .0 GROWTH RATE .89 .94 .82 .70 .61 .56 .51 .43 .31 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.867 1.988 1.998 2.009 2.020 2.031 2.042 2.053 2.063 NRR .893 .951 .958 .965 .972 .978 .985 .991 .998 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 75.68 76.74 77.82 78.83 79.49 80.16 80.86 81.59 82.34 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 61.79 62.75 63.71 64.63 65.21 65.80 66.42 67.06 67.72 IMR - BOTH SEXES 10.1 8.9 7.6 6.6 5.9 5.2 4.5 3.8 3.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0126 .0112 .0097 .0085 .0077 .0069 .0061 .0052 .0044 DEP. RATIO 50.4 51.1 52.1 51.1 49.6 49.3 52.3 57.4 63.7 68.9 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 21 Suswry Projection for 25-Year Periods NORTHERN AMERICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 267936 305843 351975 362420 366135 369267 371524 372717 MALES 0-4 10320 10878 11212 11126 11088 11082 11084 11086 5-9 9685 11396 11198 11071 11061 11072 11078 11079 10-14 9868 11002 11017 11010 11056 11076 11079 11078 15-19 10670 10630 10795 11007 11072 11079 11074 11071 20-24 12058 10029 10770 11072 11082 11063 1"053 11052 25-29 12277 10340 11067 11125 11052 11021 11020 11024 30-34 11329 11243 11565 11081 10971 10971 10988 10996 35-39 9882 12561 11194 10861 10876 10935 10963 10971 40-44 7785 12572 10845 10591 10831 10913 10932 10933 45-49 6410 11367 10173 10505 10842 10876 10872 10870 50-54 5977 9640 10232 10683 10797 10760 10751 10759 55-59 6035 7309 10730 10962 10590 10538 10569 10600 60-64 5707 5693 11441 10319 10139 10230 10332 10381 65-69 4712 4892 10732 9577 9530 9857 9999 10049 70-74 3581 4353 8782 8378 8907 9351 9480 9525 75+ 4508 6286 11723 18926 20515 21257 21920 22326 TOTAL 130803 150190 173475 178293 180409 182082 183196 183799 FEMALES 0-4 9839 10341 10646 10563 10526 10520 10522 10523 5-9 9236 10850 10639 10513 10504 10513 10518 10519 10-14 9384 10489 10473 10455 10500 10518 10520 10519 15-19 10242 10189 10277 10459 10520 10526 10521 10517 20-24 11829 9657 10288 10538 10546 10525 10515 10513 25-29 12170 9950 10619 10619 10542 10509 10505 10508 30-34 11372 10873 11136 10606 10489 10485 10498 10504 35-39 10072 12342 10818 10426 10421 10473 10496 10501 40-44 8045 12461 10547 10211 10410 10482 10495 10492 45-49 6703 11450 9931 10195 10469 10492 10481 10475 50-54 6361 9968 10032 10477 10516 10463 10443 10446 55-59 6644 7817 10719 10914 10452 10371 10387 10409 60-64 6541 6364 11886 10500 10204 10248 10329 10365 65-69 5712 5839 11682 10091 9891 10155 10269 10302 70-74 4805 5757 10305 9277 9705 10076 10165 10186 75+ 8177 11304 18501 28282 30032 30829 31664 32137 TOTAL 137133 155653 178500 184127 185726 187185 188327 188918 BIRTH RATE 15.0 13.0 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.3 8.2 10.9 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.2 .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .88 .56 .12 .04 .03 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.958 2.031 2.066 2.064 2.063 2.062 2.061 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.78 80.23 83.10 84.56 85.36 85.94 86.18 IMR - BOTH SEXES 8.9 5.2 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 22 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS ASIA TOTAL Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOrAL M+F 2823497 3102850 3383003 3650279 3908882 4158824 4403459 4647127 4884830 5108974 MALES 0-4 175999 194785 198645 195373 194025 194521 197011 202047 204892 204712 5-9 161524 171999 191150 195441 192755 191731 192568 195411 200783 203965 10-14 168685 160336 170865 190063 194484 191912 190990 191935 194893 200377 15-19 160323 167439 159203 169731 188977 193476 191013 190191 191239 194303 20-24 138554 158660 165800 157667 168211 187477 192077 189760 189071 190253 25-29 116793 136846 156885 164028 156029 166573 185864 190581 188431 187894 30-34 107011 115244 135212 155190 162347 154474 165032 184363 189206 187228 35-39 84183 105434 113627 133499 153417 160590 152862 163443 182817 187801 40-44 69176 82583 103583 111727 131473 151271 158464 150920 161520 180921 45-49 62905 67295 80513 101173 109240 128756 148375 155593 148296 158899 50-54 56174 60371 64717 77655 97797 105708 124868 144197 151433 144483 55-59 47198 52784 56859 61148 73678 93037 100729 119369 138272 145520 60-64 36259 42906 48187 52124 56358 68262 86535 93919 111830 130133 65-69 26551 31322 37303 42207 45986 50032 61065 77856 84804 101688 70-74 18365 21126 25166 30311 34739 38177 41929 51765 66568 72894 75+ 16418 20674 24875 30232 37442 45166 52464 59793 72265 92247 TOTAL 1446117 1589805 1732591 1867571 1996959 2121163 2241844 2361144 2476319 2583318 FEMALES 0-4 166265 186539 190653 187939 186759 186949 189031 193548 195957 195466 5-9 151547 162388 183099 187851 185784 184857 185324 187694 192486 195176 10-14 158346 150394 161309 182133 187054 185080 184241 184805 187278 192170 15-19 151120 157097 149318 160280 181216 186221 184357 183624 184302 186895 20-24 130806 149434 155584 147967 159020 180020 185158 183463 182893 183746 25-29 109717 128937 147673 153935 146549 157639 178731 184044 182565 182206 30-34 100319 107916 127172 145943 152377 145145 156287 177487 182998 181755 35-39 78819 98530 106184 125414 144254 150763 143710 154921 176239 181969 40-44 65120 77151 96708 104388 123592 142389 148987 142145 153435 174870 45-49 59265 63383 75330 94668 102372 121431 140157 146858 140271 151639 50-54 53226 57152 61297 73116 92162 99812 118670 137292 144122 137859 55-59 45160 50561 54470 58651 70303 88883 96473 115074 133569 140581 60-64 36503 41805 47046 50938 55177 66516 84477 92009 110291 128657 65-69 28192 32330 37293 42302 46194 50412 61321 78451 85930 103822 70-74 20725 23158 26858 31324 36027 39783 43941 54223 70190 77580 75+ 22248 26272 30417 35858 43081 51760 60750 70345 85986 111263 TOTAL 1377380 1513045 1650411 1782708 1911924 2037661 2161615 2285983 2408511 2525656 BIRTH RATE 28.0 25.9 23.3 21.3 19.9 18.8 18.1 17.3 16.4 DEATH RATE 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.90 1.74 1.53 1.38 1.25 1.15 1.08 1.00 .90 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWJTH RATE 1.89 1.73 1.52 1.37 1.24 1.14 1.08 1.00 .90 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.479 3.162 2.868 2.690 2.541 2.412 2.344 2.295 2.246 NRR 1.478 1.355 1.248 1.200 1.152 1.102 1.082 1.071 1.060 etO) - BOTH SEXES 63.78 65.13 66.65 68.23 69.39 70.62 71.92 73.29 74.74 e15) - BOTH SEXES 55.02 55.69 56.49 57.36 58.08 58.85 59.66 60.52 61.42 INR - BOTH SEXES 70.4 62.7 55.1 47.9 42.4 36.3 30.3 24.3 18.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0945 .0834 .0725 .0621 .0549 .0470 .0390 .0312 .0233 DEP. RATIO 65.2 61.5 60.7 58.8 54.8 51.3 49.6 49.9 50.6 52.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 23 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods ASIA TOTAL AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 2823497 3650279 4884830 5811163 6318546 6596353 6747477 6817277 MALES 0-4 175999 195373 204892 205731 204948 204489 204434 204414 5-9 161524 195441 200783 204735 204406 204248 204288 204283 10-14 168685 190063 194893 203469 203930 204245 204309 204277 15-19 160323 169731 191239 202781 203867 204277 204227 204161 20-24 138554 157667 189071 202382 204111 204021 203814 203791 25-29 116793 164028 188431 201258 203529 203279 203162 203219 30-34 107011 155190 189206 196885 201967 202239 202468 202652 35-39 84183 133499 182817 190154 199858 201052 201856 202113 40-44 69176 111727 161520 185353 198112 200110 201136 201357 45-49 62905 101173 148296 181629 196346 199259 199942 200093 50-54 56174 77655 151433 178086 192774 196687 197510 197901 55-59 47198 61148 138272 173776 184430 191783 193632 194619 60-64 36259 52124 111830 160329 171957 184690 188198 190086 65-69 26551 42207 84804 131130 158516 175425 180802 183368 70-74 18365 30311 66568 107478 142136 162282 170006 172947 75+ 16418 30232 72265 185620 270321 330795 374830 394054 TOTAL 1446117 1867571 2476319 2910796 3141208 3268880 3334616 3363337 FEMALES 0-4 166265 187939 195957 196040 195229 194829 194793 194785 5-9 151547 187851 192486 195237 194745 194632 194694 194701 10-14 158346 182133 187278 194171 194303 194637 194726 194708 15-19 151120 160280 184302 193787 194353 194757 194735 194683 20-24 130806 147967 182893 193926 194925 194807 194618 194594 25-29 109717 153935 182565 193724 194973 194559 194422 194463 30-34 100319 145943 182998 190304 194032 193988 194162 194331 35-39 78819 125414 176239 184531 192548 193256 193958 194199 40-44 65120 104388 153435 180709 191569 192905 193795 193987 45-49 59265 94668 140271 178107 190838 192904 193449 193564 50-54 53226 73116 144122 175903 189212 191990 192541 192858 55-59 45160 58651 133569 173390 183719 189594 190980 191828 60-64 36503 50938 110291 162667 175017 186026 188843 190524 65-69 28192 42302 85930 135439 166691 181940 186417 188733 70-74 20725 31324 70190 115703 156889 176135 182985 185710 75+ 22248 35858 85986 236728 368295 460513 527742 560271 TOTAL 1377380 1782708 2408511 2900367 3177338 3327473 3412860 3453939 BIRTH RATE 25.6 19.0 15.1 13.2 12.4 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.5 7.4 8.2 9.9 10.7 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.71 1.17 .69 .33 .17 .09 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.148 2.447 2.187 2.081 2.067 2.060 2.059 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 65.27 70.83 76.59 80.35 82.70 84.58 85.33 IMR - BOTH SEXES 62.8 36.2 13.6 5.6 3.6 2.4 2.2 24 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA Poputatfon Projectfon (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1652907 1787967 1921726 2044169 2154742 2256704 2356015 2453695 2546439 2630222 MALES 0-4 85291 96439 98110 94404 90219 88713 90386 92745 93456 92531 5-9 84518 84216 95514 97336 93797 89716 88296 90040 92473 93262 10-14 97557 84095 8339 95165 97033 93544 89512 88132 89913 92383 15-19 96882 96991 83630 83418 94771 96675 93238 89258 87923 89741 20-24 83090 96054 96206 82976 82820 94181 96131 92768 88861 87587 25-29 68640 82230 95154 95374 82277 82162 93528 95528 92245 88420 30-34 67017 67867 81403 94336 94596 81622 81551 92927 94981 91781 35-39 51942 66175 67053 80563 93478 93785 80948 80931 92322 94441 40-44 42115 51096 65173 66114 79556 92411 92779 80121 80173 91573 45-49 39074 41111 49987 63872 64872 78181 90945 91402 79001 79147 50-54 35223 37671 39727 48459 62040 63086 76181 88793 89375 77350 55-59 29828 33308 35715 37815 46331 59436 60559 73351 85753 86525 60-64 22792 27335 30684 33066 35245 43404 55864 57113 69509 81653 65-69 16659 19908 24061 27260 29629 31804 39470 51062 52485 64344 70-74 11489 13471 16292 19954 22964 25184 27326 34308 44735 46367 75+ 10345 13350 16469 20466 25954 31708 37C35 42078 51110 65837 TOTAL 842462 911318 979017 1040579 1095581 1145614 1193749 1240557 1284313 13229"4 FEMALES 0-4 80181 92560 94337 90674 86560 85018 86520 88675 89249 88264 5-9 79575 79325 91849 93760 90241 86199 84715 86267 88472 89100 10-14 92143 79240 79037 91599 93554 90067 86056 84598 86174 88402 15-19 92296 91694 78892 78742 91347 93328 89876 85902 84475 86078 20-24 79356 91620 91110 78449 78372 90998 93019 89625 85708 84331 25-29 65553 78594 90882 90498 77993 77961 90614 92690 89370 85524 30-34 63654 64827 77847 90186 89934 77538 77554 90236 92374 89134 35-39 48586 62864 64095 77114 89501 89320 77052 77126 89838 92048 40-44 39086 47851 62000 63318 76319 88685 88591 76482 76628 89369 45-49 36200 38291 46975 60978 62385 75296 87627 87649 75755 75996 50-54 33239 35157 37270 45862 59664 61138 73928 86215 86401 74802 55-59 28539 31867 33788 35950 44422 57910 59485 72129 84375 84798 O-64 23590 26774 30013 31962 34205 42469 55546 57280 69758 81993 65-69 18487 21318 24321 27454 29487 31792 39779 52318 54307 66616 70-74 13915 15642 18194 20957 23995 26064 28449 36051 47862 50226 75+ 16045 19023 22100 26086 31180 37308 43453 49893 61381 80598 TOTAL 810445 876649 942709 1003590 1059161 1111089 1162265 1213138 1262125 1307278 BIRTH RATE 23.0 21.6 19.3 17.3 16.1 15.7 15.3 14.8 14.1 DEATH RATE 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.58 1.46 1.25 1.06 .93 .87 .82 .74 .65 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.57 1.44 1.24 1.05 .92 .8H .81 .74 .65 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.716 2.489 2.289 2.182 2.131 2.iJ8 2.100 2.093 2.086 NRR 1.241 1.142 1.057 1.019 1.u02 .996 .998 .999 1.001 etO) - BOTH SEXES 68.20 69.46 70.81 72.24 73.26 74.34 75.48 76.68 77.96 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 56.93 57.61 58.47 59.46 60.23 61.04 61.91 62.83 63.82 IMR - BOTH SEXES 39.9 34.0 28.3 23.2 20.3 17.3 14.2 11.1 8.1 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0515 .0432 .0357 .0290 .0254 .0217 .0179 .0141 .0103 DEP. RATIO 57.9 52.9 52.8 52.7 49.6 46.6 45.9 48.0 50.2 53.6 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REOIONS, AND INCOME OROUPS 25 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1652907 2044169 2546439 2840284 2950043 3012583 3053635 3074496 MALES 0-4 85291 94404 93456 92186 91751 91684 91713 91722 5-9 84518 97336 92473 91437 91490 91617 91670 91668 10-14 97557 95165 89913 90799 91506 91692 91691 91661 15-19 96882 83418 87923 90998 91753 91741 91640 91599 20-24 83090 82976 88861 91896 91855 91561 91431 91431 25-29 68640 95374 92245 92357 91419 91118 91129 91191 30-34 67017 94336 94981 91134 90432 90643 90870 90967 35-39 51942 80563 92322 88219 89465 90368 90691 90750 40-44 42115 66114 80173 85778 89234 90255 90429 90413 45-49 39074 63872 79001 86068 89581 89911 89858 89838 50-54 35223 48459 89375 88132 89057 88682 88711 88876 55-59 29828 37815 85753 88631 86231 86373 87059 87509 60-64 22792 33066 69509 83014 81070 83428 84997 85644 65-69 16659 27260 52485 67743 75312 80142 82135 82793 70-74 11489 19954 44735 60853 70202 75698 77558 78244 75+ 10345 20466 51110 125605 150242 163782 174706 180741 TOTAL 842462 1040579 1284313 1414848 1460600 1488695 1506287 1515046 FEMALES 0-4 80181 90674 89249 87868 87447 87395 87427 87438 5-9 79575 93760 88472 87191 87213 87347 87404 87405 10-14 92143 91599 86174 86613 87233 87424 87431 87405 15-19 92296 78742 4475 86878 87512 87509 87422 87384 20-24 79356 78449 85708 87919 87750 87463 87343 87341 25-29 65553 90498 89370 88712 87567 873 87242 87296 30-34 63654 90186 92374 87870 86834 86972 87177 87265 35-39 48586 77114 89838 85393 86110 86887 87177 87229 40-44 39086 63318 76628 83437 86169 87021 87158 87135 45-49 36200 60978 75755 84239 86907 87058 86969 86938 50-54 33239 45862 86401 87103 87198 86546 86504 86640 55-59 28539 35950 84375 88872 85625 85320 85878 86277 60-64 23590 31962 69758 84778 82155 83893 85279 85853 65-69 18487 27454 54307 70024 78734 82887 84650 85206 70-74 13915 20957 47862 65836 76953 81837 83424 83983 75+ 16045 26086 61381 162702 208034 231092 248860 258654 TOTAL 810445 1003590 1262125 1425436 1489442 1523888 1547347 1559450 BIRTH RATE 21.2 15.8 13.3 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.0 7.0 9.0 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.42 .88 .44 .15 .08 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.481 2.122 2.078 2.066 2.061 2.059 2.058 etO) - BOTH SEXES 69.55 74.50 79.39 82.26 83.94 85.23 85.74 INR - BOTH SEXES 34.1 17.2 6.3 3.4 2.7 2.2 2.0 26 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS SOUTH ASIA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1055231 1182312 1308211 1431722 1557371 1682379 1803830 1925280 2045815 2162486 MALES 0-4 81638 87792 88533 80on 90176 91s73 91625 93668 95545 96306 5-9 69157 78899 85222 86272 86215 88532 90174 90493 92782 94897 10-14 64081 68443 78160 84530 85665 856n 88042 89749 90142 92500 15-19 sn54 63453 67797 77492 83888 85070 85136 87553 89316 89774 20-24 50031 56473 62607 66965 76629 83049 84296 84437 86913 88745 25-29 43374 49243 55588 61716 66084 75719 82174 83494 83722 86266 30-34 35985 42653 48435 54761 60870 65252 74865 81357 82754 83069 35-39 29008 35305 41864 47618 53909 59998 64393 73978 80503 81977 40-44 24499 28316 34494 40970 46675 52915 58972 63374 72912 79462 45-49 21607 23695 27421 33470 39821 45444 51605 57604 62001 71453 50-54 18931 20569 22593 26201 32052 38218 43714 49749 55652 60026 55-59 15744 17580 19140 21071 24508 30077 35970 41267 47103 52844 60-64 12328 14093 1577 17224 19031 22231 27392 32885 37874 43390 65-69 9158 10427 11964 13440 14744 16383 19249 23845 28m 33309 70-74 6267 7070 8089 9325 10544 11661 13063 15476 19319 23481 75+ 5471 6622 7686 8885 10319 11976 13688 15659 18546 23016 TOTAL 544526 610632 675368 n8012 801128 863770 '24357 984589 1043856 1100517 FEMALES 0-4 77254 83843 84802 84903 87146 88316 88177 89949 91554 92078 5-9 64386 74399 81232 8273 83312 8573 87109 87199 89181 90996 10-14 59404 63610 73618 80554 82169 82821 85296 86742 86908 88962 15-19 52953 58649 62892 72921 79928 81605 8231 84873 86400 86652 20-24 46302 52000 57715 62031 72079 79134 80905 81741 84386 86030 25-29 39958 45256 50965 56729 61119 71162 78287 80180 81154 83931 30-34 33146 38939 44241 49981 55786 60224 70273 77479 79506 80632 35-39 2ns6 32198 37954 43269 49029 54842 59333 69394 76689 788&2 40-44 23655 26474 31272 36987 42300 48042 53861 58405 68473 75858 45-49 20927 22766 25575 30313 35966 41234 46944 52754 57341 67394 50-54 18127 19921 21761 24544 29197 - 39936 45591 51373 55991 55-59 15037 16913 18687 20518 23261 I- 33161 38264 43840 49576 60-64 11797 13545 15355 17090 18899 21549 25865 31051 36023 41489 65-69 8887 10007 11622 13316 14973 16704 19216 23258 28155 32932 70-74 6126 6830 7813 9209 10703 12199 13795 16090 19726 24183 75+ 5391 6331 7340 8622 10376 12538 14983 17720 21252 26402 TOTAL 510706 571680 632843 693710 756243 818609 879472 940691 1001959 1061969 BIRTH RATE 34.7 31.1 27.8 25.8 23.9 22.0 20.8 19.7 18.5 DEATH RATE 11.8 10.7 9.7 8.9 8.4 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.29 2.04 1.81 1.69 1.55 1.40 1.31 1.22 1.11 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.O .0 GROWTH RATE 2.27 2.02 1.80 1.68 1.54 1.39 1.30 1.21 1.11 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.638 4.127 3.615 3.264 2.942 2.662 2.527 2.445 2.365 NRR 1.806 1.650 1.492 1.386 1.269 1.169 1.133 1.116 1.097 oCO) - BOTH SEXES 56.95 58.68 60.55 62.54 64.06 65.64 67.28 68.98 70.75 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 52.01 52.79 53.54 54.34 55.11 55.90 56.73 57.58 58.47 IMR - BOTH SEXES 101.6 92.6 82.2 71.4 62.9 54.4 45.6 36.7 27.8 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .1387 .1253 .1097 .0935 .0823 .0708 .0590 .0471 .0350 DEP. RATIO 76.5 74.4 71.7 66.1 60.4 56.0 52.9 51.0 50.0 49.8 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 27 Surnary ProJection for 25-Year Periods SOUTH ASIA AGE GROJP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1055231 1431722 2045815 2570321 2894368 3076355 3174113 3217262 MALES 0-4 81638 88072 95545 97580 97357 97002 96926 96899 5-9 69157 86272 92782 97438 97130 96860 96838 96833 10-14 64081 84530 90142 97002 96701 96795 96836 96833 15-19 57248 77492 89316 96186 96458 96779 96807 96787 20-24 50031 66965 86913 94820 96572 96711 96631 96614 25-29 43374 61716 83722 93325 96330 96457 96336 96328 30-34 35985 54761 82754 90550 95900 95984 95967 96033 35-39 29008 47618 80503 87485 95016 95190 95596 95754 40-44 24499 40970 72912 86031 93656 94496 95199 95391 45-49 21607 33470 62001 82810 91586 94050 94659 94795 50-54 18931 26201 55652 78194 88821 92775 93553 93741 55-59 15744 21071 47103 74618 83985 90595 91644 92096 60-64 12328 17224 37874 68542 77839 87098 88724 89796 65-69 9158 13440 28m 56479 71620 81866 84826 86459 70-74 6267 9325 19319 41288 61925 74117 79446 81393 75+ 5471 8885 18546 52502 103349 141976 171534 183176 TOTAL 544526 738012 1043856 1294850 1444245 1528752 1571523 1588928 FEMALES 0-4 77254 84903 91554 92967 92708 92408 92348 92331 5-9 64386 82723 89181 92931 92501 92282 92283 92287 10-14 59404 80554 86908 92621 92093 92219 92286 92292 15-19 52953 72921 86400 92023 91915 92244 92299 92288 20-24 46302 62031 84386 91023 92192 92321 92265 92249 25-29 39958 56729 81154 90055 92286 92300 92185 92175 30-34 33146 49981 79506 87782 92181 92044 92019 92087 35-39 27356 43269 76689 85158 91630 91474 91840 92002 40-44 23655 36987 6s473 84106 90692 91072 91707 91896 45-49 20927 30313 57341 81393 89193 91022 91562 91698 50-54 18127 24544 51373 77174 87412 90562 91173 91345 55-59 15037 20518 43840 73941 83948 89608 90365 90766 60-64 11797 17090 36023 68853 79586 87840 89013 89996 65-69 8887 13316 28155 57928 75769 85102 87458 88990 70-74 6126 9209 19726 43803 68862 80716 85508 87412 75+ 5391 8622 21252 63713 137155 194390 238279 258520 TOTAL 510706 693710 1001959 1275471 1450123 1547604 1602589 1628334 BIRTH RATE 31.0 22.2 16.8 13.9 12.7 12.1 11.9 DEATH RATE 10.7 8.1 7.7 9.2 10.3 10.9 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.03 1.43 .91 .47 .24 .13 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.087 2.735 2.274 2.096 2.071 2.062 2.060 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 58.85 65.93 73.31 78.35 81.48 83.97 84.94 IMR - BOTH SEXES 92.2 54.2 20.1 7.4 4.5 2.6 2.3 28 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS SOUTHWEST ASIA PopuLation ProJection (thousands) AGE GROlP 1985 l990 1995 2000 2005 201U 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 115359 132571 153065 174389 196770 219742 243615 268153 292576 316266 MALES 0-4 9070 10554 12001 12897 13631 14234 15000 15634 15892 1b874 5-9 7849 8884 10415 11833 12744 13483 14098 14878 15528 15805 10-14 7046 7798 8866 10368 11786 12696 13436 14054 14838 15493 15-19 6193 6996 777 8820 10318 11731 12639 13380 14001 14788 20-24 5432 6133 6987 ms 8763 10247 11649 12556 13297 13922 25-29 4779 5372 6143 6938 7668 8692 10163 11559 12464 13208 30-34 4010 4724 5375 6094 6881 7600 8616 10079 11472 12378 35-39 3233 3955 4710 5318 6031 6807 7521 8534 9"92 11382 40-44 2562 3171 3917 4643 5241 5944 6713 7424 8435 9885 45-49 2224 2490 3106 3831 4546 5131 5825 6587 7294 8299 50-54 2021 2131 2397 2996 3705 4403 4973 5655 6406 7108 55-59 1625 1896 2004 2263 2840 3525 4199 4751 5417 6152 60-64 1140 1478 1725 1834 2082 2627 3278 3921 4447 5090 65-69 734 987 1279 1506 1613 1845 2347 2948 3545 4035 70-74 609 584 785 1033 1231 1332 1539 1981 2514 3045 75+ 602 702 720 881 1169 1482 1741 2057 2609 3393 TOTAL 59130 67855 78206 88981 100250 111779 123738 135998 148150 159856 FEMALES 0-4 8830 10135 11514 12361 13053 13615 14333 14924 15155 15123 5-9 7587 8663 10018 11369 12232 12928 13499 14229 14833 15081 10-14 6799 7543 8654 9980 11331 12193 12889 13464 14196 14806 15-19 5871 6754 7534 8616 9941 11289 12150 12849 13427 14165 20-24 5149 5814 6759 7487 8569 9888 11233 12096 12799 13385 25-29 4206 5086 5826 6708 7437 8516 9830 11174 12041 12751 30-34 3520 4150 5084 5776 6658 7383 8460 9772 11s18 11990 35-39 2877 3468 4135 5032 5724 6601 7324 8401 9712 11059 40-44 2379 2825 3436 4083 4973 5662 6536 7258 8334 9643 45-49 2138 2326 2780 3377 4020 4901 5586 6455 7175 8250 50-54 1859 2074 2267 2710 3302 3938 4806 5486 6348 7067 55-59 1584 1782 1995 2184 2621 3202 3828 4680 5354 6207 60-64 1116 1486 1678 1885 2073 2498 3066 3678 4510 5175 65-69 818 1005 1350 1532 1734 1917 2326 2875 3469 4274 70-74 684 686 852 1158 1329 1519 1696 2082 2602 3172 75+ 813 919 977 1150 1524 1914 2314 2732 3353 4263 TOTAL 56230 64716 74859 55408 96520 107963 119877 132154 144427 156409 BIRTH RATE 36.3 35.4 32.9 30.4 28.1 26.4 24.8 22.8 20.8 DEATH RATE 8.4 7.9 6.9 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.78 2.75 2.59 2.41 2.21 2.06 1.92 1.74 1.56 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 1.3 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.78 2.87 2.61 2.41 2.21 2.06 1.92 1.74 1.56 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.050 4.750 4.371 4.007 3.642 3.350 3.083 2.826 2.601 NRR 2.150 2.053 1.920 1.805 1.660 1.530 1.420 1.315 1.223 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 64.13 65.25 67.20 68.77 69.87 71.02 72.24 73.52 74.87 eS15) - BOTH SEXES 55.70 55.97 57.12 57.94 58.55 59.20 59.90 60.65 61.46 IMR - BOTH SEXES 68.8 61.5 53.8 46.4 41.0 35.5 30.2 24.9 19.4 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0925 .0816 .0707 .0604 .0536 .0467 .0399 .0329 .0257 DEP. RATIO 80.5 78.9 78.7 77.4 73.5 68.3 64.2 61.3 59.0 56.6 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 29 Suimary Projectfon tor 25-Year Periods SOUTHWEST ASIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 115359 174389 292576 400557 474135 507414 519729 525518 MALES 0-4 9070 12897 15892 15966 15840 15803 15795 15793 5-9 7849 11833 15528 15860 15786 15M 15780 15782 10-14 7046 10368 14838 15668 15723 15757 15782 15783 15-19 6193 8820 14001 15597 15656 15757 15779 15775 20-24 5432 7725 13297 15666 15684 15749 15752 15747 25-29 4779 6938 12464 15576 15780 15703 15698 15700 30-34 4010 6094 11472 15202 15635 15612 15631 15652 35-39 3233 5318 9992 14450 15378 15493 15569 15609 40-44 2562 4643 8435 13544 15222 15358 15508 15554 45-49 2224 3831 7294 12751 15179 15299 15426 15460 50-54 2021 2996 6406 11760 14895 15230 15246 15284 55-59 1625 2263 5417 10527 14214 14815 14929 15014 60-64 1140 1834 4447 8773 13047 14165 14477 14645 65-69 734 1506 3545 6909 11584 13417 13842 14116 70-74 609 1033 2514 5337 10009 12467 13002 13310 75+ 602 881 2609 7512 16730 25037 28590 30138 TOTAL 59130 88981 148150 201098 236363 251433 256805 259363 FEMALES 0-4 8830 12361 15155 15204 15074 15027 15018 15016 5 9 7587 11369 14833 15114 15032 15003 15007 15009 10-14 6799 9980 14196 14938 14977 14994 15009 15011 15-19 5871 8616 13427 14885 14926 15004 15014 15011 20-24 5149 7487 12799 14984 14983 15024 15010 15004 25-29 4206 6708 12041 14957 15119 15021 14995 14992 30-34 3520 5776 11118 14652 15018 14972 14966 14979 35-39 2877 5032 9712 13980 14807 14894 14941 14968 40-44 2379 4083 8334 13166 14708 14812 14929 14956 45-49 2138 3377 7175 12476 14737 14824 14918 14928 50-54 1859 2710 6348 11625 14603 14882 14864 14873 55-59 1584 2184 5354 1057a 14147 14665 14737 14785 60-64 1116 1885 4510 9035 13276 14293 14550 14675 65-69 818 1532 3469 7487 12187 13951 14309 14536 70-74 684 1158 2602 6064 11074 13582 14057 14316 75+ 813 1150 3353 10312 23106 35031 40603 43097 TOTAL 56230 85408 144427 199459 237772 255981 262924 266155 BIRTH RATE 34.7 26.1 18.1 14.1 12.6 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.7 5.7 5.7 7.4 9.9 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE .5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.75 2.07 1.26 .67 .27 .10 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.686 3.313 2.330 2.084 2.070 2.063 2.061 e(O) BOTH SEvS 65.67 71.32 76.66 80.25 82.55 84.47 85.25 INR - BOTH SEXES 60.9 35.2 15.2 7.2 4.3 2.4 2.2 30 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS EUROPE AND FORMWER SOVIET REPUBLICS Population Projectfon (thousands) AGE GROWP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 769742 790333 808216 825469 842364 857207 870514 882598 893937 904625 MALES 0-4 29556 29888 28959 28228 28317 28506 28501 28389 28335 28407 5-9 29272 29482 29752 28871 28146 28242 28442 28446 28345 28295 10-14 29468 29235 29396 29696 28819 28101 28205 28411 28422 28326 15-19 30421 29377 29101 29298 296C4 28740 28034 28145 28359 28378 20-24 29959 30255 29144 28931 29135 29450 28607 27916 28039 28263 25-29 30970 29763 29964 28940 28733 28945 29274 28450 27776 27910 30-34 29695 30716 29471 29747 28739 28542 28767 29109 28306 27649 35-39 27508 29374 30361 29222 29517 28526 28345 28584 28941 28163 40-44 21466 27092 28926 29985 28915 29222 28257 28093 28351 28728 45-49 21921 20991 26501 28373 29481 28478 28810 27861 27746 28032 50-54 22195 21142 20308 25703 27596 28729 27822 28188 27317 27225 55-59 19844 20938 20070 19377 24602 26477 27656 26892 27316 26535 60-64 17251 18156 19283 18649 18138 23095 24958 26210 25654 26171 65-69 9965 15050 16007 17154 16812 16489 21096 22945 24294 24012 70-74 9379 8101 12350 13345 14505 14447 14348 18498 20317 21776 75+ 12159 12716 12333 15463 18583 21440 23307 24584 28969 33824 TOTAL 371030 382276 391924 400983 409643 417430 424429 430742 436483 441697 FEMALES 0-4 28366 28488 27572 26859 26929 27107 27098 26985 26924 26987 5-9 27981 28330 28387 27515 26803 26878 27065 27063 26957 26902 10-14 28190 27978 28275 28359 27487 26779 26860 27051 27053 26951 15-19 28910 28182 27910 28240 28322 27455 26754 26839 27034 27041 20-24 28980 28910 28073 27860 28182 28270 27413 26719 26809 27009 25-29 30216 28975 28778 28012 27791 28118 28215 27366 26677 26773 30-34 29232 30169 28842 28702 27935 27719 28054 28157 27315 26633 35-39 27315 29131 30013 28742 28606 27846 27639 27981 28091 27259 40-44 21550 27148 28936 29854 28606 28479 27733 27535 27886 28006 45-49 22709 21334 26885 28697 29637 28415 28304 27574 27390 27754 50-54 23664 22339 21024 26543 28370 29323 28140 28049 27344 27180 55-59 22528 23066 21849 20624 26094 27920 28894 27768 27708 27041 60-64 22844 21646 22278 21207 20099 25477 27311 28325 27284 27278 65-69 15192 21391 20463 21226 20352 19362 24620 26478 27561 26653 70-74 15362 13580 19420 18835 19775 19089 18279 23373 25280 26481 75+ 25672 27391 27587 33212 37735 41540 43705 44592 50138 56981 TOTAL 398712 408057 416292 42',486 432721 439777 446086 451855 457454 462Q28 BIRTH RATE 15.3 14.4 13.7 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.5 12.4 DEATH RATE 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. .50 .46 .42 .41 .35 .31 .28 .26 .24 NET MIGRATION RATE .2 *.2 .0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .53 .45 .42 .41 .35 .31 .28 .26 .24 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.042 1.992 1.963 1.984 2.004 2.012 2.024 2.043 2.062 NRR .973 .939 .932 .949 .962 .968 .974 .984 .996 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 73.12 74.42 75.68 76.90 77.64 78.42 79.24 80.10 81.00 eS15) - BOTH SEXES 59.67 60.81 61.90 62.96 63.60 64.27 64.97 65.71 66.49 IMR - BOTH SEXES 17.5 14.9 12.5 10.6 9.4 8.1 6.7 5.4 4.1 qCS) - BOTH SEXES .0214 .0183 .0155 .0132 .0118 .0103 .0087 .0072 .0056 DEP. RATIO 51.2 52.4 53.2 53.8 53.7 53.3 55.7 58.8 62.1 64.8 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 31 Suffnary Projection for 25-Year Periods EUROPE AND FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 769742 825469 893937 922094 930123 941153 949568 953780 MALES 0-4 29556 28228 28333 28407 28420 28420 28419 28418 5-9 29272 28871 28343 28390 2b402 28399 28398 28397 10-14 29468 29696 28422 28388 28397 28393 28393 28393 15-19 30421 29298 28359 28370 28367 28371 28376 28378 20-24 29959 28931 28039 28253 28294 28317 28327 28332 25-29 30970 28940 27776 28056 28194 28236 28253 28260 30-34 29695 29747 28306 27981 28104 28154 28174 28184 35-39 27508 29222 28941 27940 28003 28063 28092 28107 40-44 21466 29985 28351 27729 27860 27929 27978 28003 45-49 21921 28373 27746 27238 27593 2M5 27807 27843 50-54 22195 25703 27317 26655 27127 27393 27514 27567 55-59 19844 19377 27316 26592 26587 26907 27076 27151 60-64 17251 18649 25654 26284 25849 26210 26447 26557 65-69 9965 17154 24294 24441 24615 25168 25491 25658 70-74 9379 13345 20317 22021 22623 23534 24025 24274 75+ 12159 15463 28969 44454 48502 52073 55053 56581 TOTAL 371030 400983 436483 451198 456939 463292 467822 470102 FEMALES 0-4 28366 26859 26924 26970 26975 26971 26969 26967 5-9 27981 27515 26957 26968 26966 26958 26956 26954 10-14 28190 28359 27053 26976 26965 26956 26954 26953 15-19 28910 28240 27034 26984 26952 26950 26950 26951 20-24 28980 27860 26809 26935 26929 26940 26942 26944 25-29 30216 28012 26677 26841 26911 26928 26932 26933 30-34 29232 28702 27315 26857 26898 26914 26917 26919 35-39 27315 28742 28091 26909 26875 26889 26896 26901 40-44 21550 29854 27886 26832 26841 26845 26865 26876 45-49 22709 28697 27390 26528 26734 26778 26820 26837 50-54 23664 26543 27344 26264 26544 26688 26750 26774 55-59 22528 20624 27708 26685 26412 26565 26648 26682 60-64 22844 21207 27284 27131 26252 26385 26498 26550 65-69 15192 21226 27561 26478 25867 26119 26269 26356 70-74 15362 18835 25280 25286 25072 25634 25897 26039 75+ 25672 33212 50138 70253 73992 77341 80482 82041 TOTAL 398712 424486 457454 470896 473184 477861 481745 483678 BIRTH RATE 14.4 13.0 12.2 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.8 9.8 11.0 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .47 .32 .12 .03 .05 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.002 2.013 2.067 2.065 2.064 2.062 2.062 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 74.43 78.48 81.96 83.86 84.93 85.73 86.05 IMR - BOTH SEXES 15.0 8.0 3.6 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 32 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS OCEANIA TOTAL Population Projection (thousarids) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 24629 26735 28919 30979 32876 34556 36041 37348 38581 39733 MALES 0-4 1206 1261 1353 1376 1379 1372 1368 1358 1366 1381 5-9 1136 1226 1280 1369 1387 1384 1372 1364 1353 1362 10-14 1194 1154 1243 1294 1378 1392 1385 1370 1362 1352 15-19 1179 1210 1169 1254 1301 1381 1390 1381 1366 1359 20-24 1109 1206 1235 1189 1266 1305 1377 1382 1373 1360 25-29 1031 1147 1241 1261 1206 1272 1301 1366 1372 1366 30-34 942 1063 1176 1261 1273 1210 1268 1291 1356 1365 35-39 892 963 1081 1187 1266 1272 1203 1257 1281 1348 40-44 727 900 970 1084 1185 1258 1260 1189 1244 1269 45-49 625 724 894 961 1072 1169 1239 1240 1172 1228 50-54 548 610 707 872 939 1047 1142 1210 1213 1148 55-59 545 523 583 679 839 905 1010 1103 1171 1177 60-64 465 504 487 545 639 792 858 961 1053 1121 65-69 356 412 450 439 495 586 730 796 896 987 70-74 263 294 346 383 378 431 515 648 714 811 75+ 277 338 400 482 566 616 690 815 1015 1209 TOTAL 12495 13535 14615 15634 16569 17391 18109 18731 19308 19842 FEMALES 0-4 1129 1203 1290 1311 1313 1306 1301 1291 1298 1312 5-9 1055 1151 1224 1308 1324 1320 1307 1298 1287 1295 10-14 1111 1075 1169 1239 1318 1329 1321 1305 1296 1286 15-19 1097 1132 1094 1184 1249 1323 1330 1318 1303 1295 20-24 1022 1138 1170 1124 1204 1259 1324 1324 1314 1300 25-29 983 1071 1182 1204 1148 1216 1260 1316 1318 1310 30-34 913 1018 1103 1206 1220 1155 1215 1253 1310 1314 35-39 861 933 1037 1117 1213 1221 1152 1207 1246 1304 40-44 684 867 939 1039 1117 1208 1213 1143 1199 1239 45-49 586 683 863 934 1032 1108 1197 1202 1133 1190 50-54 515 577 673 850 921 1018 1094 1182 1187 1120 55-59 522 501 562 658 831 903 999 1075 1162 1169 60-64 473 500 482 541 637 806 879 975 1051 1139 65-69 395 444 471 456 515 609 773 847 943 1020 70-74 324 357 404 431 421 477 570 728 803 900 75+ 463 550 639 744 845 906 996 1155 1423 1699 TOTAL 12134 13200 14304 15345 16307 17165 17931 18618 19273 19892 BIRTH RATE 19.6 19.3 18.2 17.1 16.1 15.4 14.7 14.3 13.9 DEATH RATE 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.7 8.1 RATE OF HAT. INC. 1.16 1.15 1.06 .97 .86 .79 .71 .65 .59 NET MIGRATION RATE 4.8 4.2 3.2 2.2 1.3 .6 .0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.64 1.57 1.38 1.19 1.00 .84 .71 .65 .59 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.463 2.453 2.372 2.309 2.245 2.179 2.109 2.088 2.096 NRR 1.119 1.117 1.097 1.079 1.052 1.025 .997 .990 .997 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 71.89 72.85 73.88 74.92 75.65 76.43 77.26 78.17 79.13 et15) - BOTH SEXES 58.82 59.52 60.31 61.15 61.85 62.59 63.39 64.26 65.18 IMR - BOTH SEXES 27.0 23.5 19.5 16.1 15.3 14.5 13.5 12.9 12.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0359 .0308 .0250 .0202 .0192 .0182 .0171 .0163 .0157 DEP. RATIO 56.7 54.8 55.1 53.7 52.5 51.4 52.0 53.2 55.4 58.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 33 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods OCEANIA TOTAL AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 24629 30979 38581 42555 44041 44901 45521 45834 MALES 0-4 1206 1376 1366 1368 1371 1371 1371 1371 5-9 1136 1369 1353 1365 1371 1371 1371 1370 10-14 1194 1294 1362 1370 1372 1371 137C 1370 15-19 1179 1254 1366 1375 1371 1369 1369 1369 20-24 1109 1189 1373 1369 1364 1365 1366 1367 25-29 1031 1261 1372 1348 1355 1361 1363 1364 30-34 942 1261 1356 1332 1350 1358 1360 1360 35-39 892 1187 1281 1334 1349 1355 1356 1356 40-44 727 1084 1244 1330 1348 1348 1349 1351 45-49 625 961 1172 1327 1334 1335 1340 1342 50-54 548 872 1213 1307 1299 1314 1324 1329 55-59 545 679 1171 1261 1259 1288 1304 1309 60-64 465 545 1053 1149 1223 1257 1274 1280 65-69 356 439 896 1058 1162 1208 1226 1235 70-74 263 383 714 917 1073 1124 1150 1165 75' 277 482 1015 1889 2185 2408 2600 2697 TOTAL 12495 15634 19308 21101 21786 22203 22493 22634 FEMALES 0-4 1129 1311 1298 1297 1300 1300 1300 1300 5-9 1055 1308 1287 1296 1300 1300 1300 1299 10-14 1111 1239 1296 1302 1302 1300 1299 1299 15-19 1097 1184 1303 1308 1302 1299 1299 1299 20-24 1022 1124 1314 1305 1297 1297 1298 1299 25-29 983 1204 1318 1289 1293 1296 1298 1298 30-34 913 1206 1310 1278 1291 1297 1298 1298 35-39 861 1117 1246 1283 1294 1297 1297 1296 40-44 684 1039 1199 1284 1298 1294 1294 1295 45-49 586 934 1133 1289 1291 1287 1290 1292 50-54 515 850 1187 1283 1268 1278 1286 1289 55-59 522 658 1162 1260 1246 1269 1280 1284 60-64 473 541 1051 1179 1236 1262 1273 1277 65-69 395 456 943 1110 1213 1249 1260 1265 70-74 324 431 803 1011 1178 1217 1234 1246 75+ 463 744 1423 2679 3146 3454 3722 3861 TOTAL 12134 15345 19273 21454 22256 22698 23028 23199 BIRTH RATE 19.0 15.4 13.2 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.8 7.5 9.4 11.0 11.3 11.3 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE 4.0 .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.53 .88 .39 .14 .08 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.428 2.183 2.090 2.073 2.068 2.064 2.063 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 72.92 76.55 80.20 82.46 84.00 85.25 85.74 IMR B BOTH SEXES 23.2 14.4 9.2 4.1 2.9 2.2 2.1 34 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 2743039 3039160 3342781 3641987 3939257 4233066 4524498 4817950 5107011 5381095 MALES 0-4 184341 206347 214396 215741 218846 221791 225485 231804 235237 234029 5-9 164192 178234 200458 208914 210852 214223 217582 221757 228555 232524 10-14 166561 162413 176399 198635 207125 209137 212596 216099 220446 227419 15-19 156628 164921 160776 174685 196847 205367 207453 211000 214641 219152 20-24 133799 154504 162714 158592 172342 194477 203045 205238 208911 212742 25-29 111468 131614 152141 160313 156145 169832 191946 200576 202905 206739 30-34 101005 109511 129493 149908 157953 153852 167490 189597 198310 200793 35-39 78050 99102 107490 127339 147548 155569 151546 165139 187245 196059 40-44 64282 76189 96934 105215 124824 144855 152849 148930 162470 184556 45-49 58192 62208 73883 94244 102332 121678 141462 149418 145648 159104 50-54 51540 55558 59475 70839 90606 98494 117440 136854 144749 141192 55-59 43197 48155 51994 55795 66710 85689 93302 111668 130553 138347 60-64 33536 38990 43620 47255 50927 61248 79129 86362 103915 122058 65-69 24541 28708 33539 37769 41165 44636 54134 70517 77224 93645 70-74 16508 19284 22741 26798 30537 33580 36747 45125 59505 65488 75. 14201 17906 21724 26286 31968 38116 44092 50059 60329 78387 TOTAL 1402040 1553646 1707778 1858328 2006727 2152545 2296298 2440144 2580643 2712233 FEMALES 0-4 175353 198803 207078 208927 212125 214795 218156 224042 227130 22s721 5-9 155207 169483 193245 202167 204703 208128 211166 214950 221265 224837 10-14 157406 153480 167743 191601 200615 203214 206722 209895 213840 220323 15-19 148620 155774 151929 166190 190050 199109 201795 205406 208733 212854 20-24 126749 146565 153791 150075 164282 188167 197319 200147 203923 207470 25-29 105355 124543 144344 151670 148045 162237 186175 195463 198483 202478 30-34 95676 103242 122381 142168 149542 146026 160220 184227 193678 196923 35-39 74033 93610 101155 120239 139951 147371 143986 158198 182288 191931 40-44 61075 72124 91492 99017 117982 137590 145066 141842 156082 180258 45-49 55125 59152 70066 89180 96639 115440 134914 142455 139427 153690 50-54 49046 52878 56880 67621 86378 93757 112334 131631 139253 136472 55-59 41299 46286 50045 54025 64521 82806 90094 108379 127458 135196 60-64 33412 37878 42656 46328 50269 60431 78086 85271 103186 122010 65-69 25671 29192 33295 37781 41338 45219 54919 71719 78780 96221 70-74 18362 20666 23713 27302 31389 34766 38525 47554 63142 70001 75+ 18610 21838 25190 29365 34702 41464 48724 56628 69701 92478 TOTAL 1340999 1485513 1635003 1783658 1932530 2080521 2228200 2377805 2526368 2668862 BIRTH RATE 31.0 29.0 26.4 24.5 22.9 21.5 20.6 19.5 18.2 DEATH RATE 10.3 9.8 9.2 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.07 1.92 1.72 1.58 1.44 1.34 1.26 1.17 1.05 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROIWTH RATE 2.05 1.90 1.71 1.57 1.44 1.33 1.26 1.17 1.05 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.900 3.592 3.292 3.098 2.908 2.725 2.607 2.506 2.397 NRR 1.585 1.471 1.370 1.326 1.271 1.197 1.157 1.130 1.098 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 60.87 62.10 63.47 64.87 66.02 67.24 68.54 69.94 71.43 e05) - BOTH SEXES 53.54 54.03 54.61 55.20 55.91 56.66 57.47 58.33 59.25 INR - BOTH SEXES 82.4 75.3 68.3 60.9 55.5 49.5 43.5 37.5 31.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1173 .1069 .0965 .0851 .0779 .0696 .0610 .0524 .0436 DEP. RATIO 69.1 65.8 65.2 63.3 59.2 55.4 53.1 52.6 52.4 52.9 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 35 Sumiary Projection for 25-Year Periods LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 2743039 3641987 5107011 6268152 6976702 7357538 7562156 7668248 MALES 0-4 184341 215741 235237 230120 230293 230522 230584 230526 5-9 164192 208914 228555 229288 229908 230320 230434 230361 10-14 166561 198635 220446 228710 229886 230224 230390 230321 15-19 156628 174685 214641 228271 229523 229869 230175 230168 20-24 133799 158592 208911 228799 228146 229061 229636 229759 25-29 111468 160313 202905 227544 226839 227990 228893 229136 30-34 101005 149908 198310 221403 225441 227058 228141 228486 35-39 78050 127339 187245 212170 223791 226153 227298 227772 40-44 64282 105215 162470 204787 221984 224687 226014 226747 45-49 58192 94244 145648 197192 220649 221967 224067 225192 50-54 51540 70839 144749 188184 216117 218151 220939 222618 55-59 43197 55795 130553 178391 204788 212486 216510 218771 60-64 33536 47255 103915 160194 188159 204415 210371 213261 65-69 24541 37769 77224 127575 169999 193005 201083 204908 70-74 16508 26798 59505 101034 147697 177235 186619 192153 75+ 14201 26286 60329 165131 259170 344102 400113 429990 TOTAL 1402040 1858328 2580643 3128794 3452391 3627243 3721267 3770169 FEMALES 0-4 175353 208927 227130 221353 221098 220932 220921 220875 5-9 155207 202167 221265 220931 220951 220881 220825 220765 10-14 157406 191601 213840 220673 221100 220908 220799 220742 15-19 148620 166190 208733 220686 221046 220795 220701 220697 20-24 126749 150075 203923 221938 220278 220504 220520 220618 25-29 105355 151670 198483 221700 219813 220163 220408 220511 30-34 95676 142168 193678 216595 219227 219902 220262 220364 35-39 74033 120239 182288 208383 218389 219662 220016 220131 40-44 61075 99017 156082 202107 217568 219066 219533 219752 45-49 55125 89180 139427 195847 217578 217540 218726 219184 50-54 49046 67621 139253 188427 215363 215791 217526 218428 55-59 41299 54025 127458 180623 207435 213229 215963 217307 60-64 33412 46328 103186 165172 195278 209511 213859 215665 65-69 25671 37781 78780 134285 183024 204386 210536 213126 70-74 18362 27302 63142 110858 167625 197346 204609 208958 75+ 18610 29365 69701 209780 358537 489679 575685 620957 TOTAL 1340999 1783658 2526368 3139358 3524310 3730294 3840889 3898079 BIRTH RATE 28.7 21.6 16.3 13.7 12.7 12.1 11.9 DEATH RATE 9.7 8.2 8.2 9.5 10.5 11.0 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWITH RATE 1.89 1.35 .82 .43 .21 .11 .06 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.572 2.749 2.241 2.079 2.065 2.056 2.054 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 62.23 67.49 73.78 78.56 81.49 83.95 84.93 IMR - BOTH SEXES 75.3 49.3 23.3 9.4 5.2 2.6 2.3 36 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS LOWER-MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROlJP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 519741 575680 634722 695012 756543 817709 878783 939369 998962 1056764 MALES 0-4 37112 38997 40802 41963 43007 43582 44368 44973 45414 45574 5-9 33130 36320 38290 40152 41395 42474 43100 43940 44604 45109 10-14 30079 32836 36046 38024 39907 41165 42260 42910 43775 44467 15-19 27356 29760 32537 35744 37742 39636 40909 42021 42697 43590 20-24 23716 26873 29321 32099 35325 37343 39254 40549 41690 42405 25-29 20836 23168 26374 28827 31639 34874 36913 38848 40174 41353 30-34 17612 20336 22712 25912 28398 31222 34461 36524 38486 39847 35-39 14158 17158 19904 22276 25488 27982 30812 34057 36148 38141 40-44 11346 13732 16723 19450 21826 25025 27520 30354 33603 35722 45-49 10452 10920 13274 16217 18923 21279 24449 26940 29774 33025 50-54 9210 9932 10409 12697 15570 18225 20547 23673 26154 28981 55-59 7907 8563 9261 9739 11929 14698 17278 19553 22617 25083 60-64 6020 7101 7717 8379 8857 10919 13543 16021 18231 21209 65-69 4132 5119 6070 6635 n56 779 9628 12052 14380 16491 70-74 3348 3216 4019 4808 5314 5885 6358 8012 10159 12268 75+ 3458 3807 3904 4538 5545 6534 7564 8594 10543 13532 TOTAL 259871 287839 317361 347460 378120 408581 438963 469021 498450 526797 FEMALES 0-4 35773 37631 39353 40447 41426 41949 42672 43220 43608 43n2 5-9 31957 35074 37017 38795 39970 40980 41548 42318 42918 43362 10-14 29011 31698 34843 36798 38597 39785 40808 41396 42188 42811 15-19 26392 28740 31456 34604 36582 38393 39595 40636 41248 42066 20-24 23383 25999 28397 31124 34302 36304 38136 39363 40434 41085 25-29 20706 22942 25614 28025 30794 33989 36017 37875 39136 40247 30-34 17676 20308 22584 25265 27710 30495 33700 35753 37638 38934 35-39 14187 17325 19976 22256 24958 27412 30205 33417 35495 37408 40-44 11521 13881 17010 19653 21942 24642 27099 29898 33116 35219 45-49 10826 11230 13571 16671 19304 21584 24277 26733 29537 32761 50-54 9549 10477 10893 13201 16262 18868 21134 23815 26273 29082 55-59 8411 9128 10040 10468 12734 15735 18305 20555 23224 25687 60-64 6645 7865 8566 9457 9907 12109 15031 17558 19792 22454 65-69 4806 5975 7112 7795 8665 9138 11256 14074 16549 18M 70-74 4090 4021 5061 6084 6746 7578 8083 10082 12756 15165 75+ 4935 5548 5869 6910 8525 10168 11955 13656 16600 21189 TOTAL 259870 287842 317361 347552 378423 409129 439820 470348 500512 529967 BIRTH RATE 30.0 28.2 26.2 24.4 22.7 21.3 20.1 18.9 17.8 DEATH RATE 8.8 8.2 7.6 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.12 2.00 1.86 1.73 1.57 1.45 1.34 1.23 1.13 NET MIGRATION RATE -.8 -.5 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.04 1.95 1.81 1.70 1.55 1.44 1.33 1.23 1.13 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.879 3.571 3.282 3.028 2.798 2.633 2.505 2.407 2.323 NRR 1.697 1.573 1.462 1.366 1.270 1.202 1.155 1.120 1.092 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 64.58 65.77 67.13 68.53 69.58 70.71 71.91 73.20 74.57 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 54.84 55.44 56.19 57.00 57.75 58.55 59.40 60.31 61.28 IMR - BOTH SEXES 58.1 52.8 46.6 40.3 36.3 32.2 28.1 23.8 19.3 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0791 .0714 .0626 .0537 .0487 .0434 .0380 .0324 .0264 DEP. RATIO 74.5 71.6 68.7 64.7 60.9 57.0 54.4 53.0 52.4 52.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 37 Sumnary Projection for 25-Year Periods LOWER-MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 519741 695012 998962 1249300 1395432 1461784 1493914 1509759 MALES 0-4 37112 41963 45414 45245 45219 45226 45226 45218 5-9 33130 40152 44604 45077 45166 45183 45191 45185 10-14 30079 38024 43775 45039 45136 45159 45183 45178 15-19 27356 35744 42697 45010 45021 45104 45150 45152 20-24 23716 32099 41690 44888 44849 44991 45061 45075 25-29 20836 28827 40174 44366 44727 44833 44926 44953 30-34 17612 25912 38486 43526 44440 44670 44781 44824 35-39 14158 22276 36148 42473 44207 44479 44619 44690 40-44 11346 19450 33603 41124 43927 44164 44395 44506 45-49 10452 16217 29774 39791 43488 43747 44071 44226 50-54 9210 12697 26154 3M2 42411 43172 43532 43746 55-59 7907 9739 22617 35155 40659 42124 42726 43019 60-64 6020 8379 18231 31585 38281 40737 41571 41979 65-69 4132 6635 14380 27356 35062 38729 39811 40418 70-74 3348 4808 10159 21626 31060 35709 37190 38040 75+ 3458 4538 10543 30347 55718 72181 81745 86388 TOTAL 259871 347460 498450 620338 689371 720208 735178 742597 FEMALES 0-4 35m 40447 43608 43334 43262 43229 43220 43213 5-9 31957 38795 42918 43218 43241 43208 43198 43191 10-14 29011 36798 42188 43224 43234 43200 43193 43189 15-19 26392 34604 41248 43268 43168 43182 43183 43184 20-24 23383 31124 40434 43280 43099 43156 43162 43170 25-29 20706 28025 39136 42964 43121 43126 43142 43149 30-34 17676 25265 37638 42318 42975 43085 43107 43120 35-39 14187 22256 35495 41461 42889 43015 43055 43080 40-44 11521 19653 33116 40353 42803 42864 42977 43022 45-49 10826 16671 29537 39318 42628 42674 42866 42935 50-54 9549 13201 26273 37708 42018 42492 42695 42805 55-59 8411 10468 23224 35759 40942 42039 42442 42605 60-64 6645 9457 19792 33014 39477 41504 42071 42315 65-69 4806 7795 16549 29772 37490 40747 41478 41888 70-74 4090 6084 12756 25066 35073 39490 40s64 41202 75+ 4935 6910 16600 44902 80639 104565 118383 125095 TOTAL 259870 347552 500512 628962 706060 741575 758736 767162 BIRTH RATE 28.0 21.3 16.0 13.4 12.4 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.2 6.8 7.1 9.0 10.6 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.94 1.45 .89 .44 .19 .09 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.553 2.653 2.201 2.072 2.063 2.057 2.056 etO) - BOTH SEXES 65.91 70.95 76.56 80.50 82.75 84.60 85.34 IHR - BOTH SEXES 52.4 32.1 14.5 6.3 3.9 2.4 2.2 38 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS UPPER-NM DD -INCOME ECONOMIES Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 454297 502963 554634 607227 660129 714688 772052 830744 889388 947198 MALES 0-4 30182 32905 34620 35248 35747 37392 39681 41422 42558 43411 5-9 27717 29689 32445 34228 34929 35477 37167 39491 41274 42454 10-14 26102 27533 29518 32288 34090 34812 35381 37083 39419 41218 15-19 23614 25893 27335 29341 32121 33937 34680 35261 36972 39318 20-24 21681 23287 25581 27065 29096 31888 33730 34485 35080 36800 25-29 19017 21294 22932 25271 26791 28843 31655 33503 34271 34880 30-34 16393 18663 20960 22643 25008 26549 28625 31432 33287 34069 35-39 13232 16068 18345 20671 22382 24756 26317 28394 31199 33063 40-44 10707 12920 15738 18030 20366 22085 24462 26026 28103 30900 45-49 9363 10374 12559 15356 17642 19961 21683 24048 25615 27690 50-54 8067 8953 9946 12093 14837 17084 19372 21087 23433 25005 55-59 6755 7543 8398 9373 11446 14092 16283 18525 20235 22560 60-64 5338 6105 6846 7668 8601 10563 13074 15186 17368 19072 65-69 3617 4577 5266 5960 6730 7600 9409 11731 13728 15815 70-74 2928 2849 3635 4242 4871 5558 6337 7932 992 11815 75+ 3124 3428 3567 4240 5177 6219 7374 8679 10727 13665 TOTAL 227837 252080 277691 303719 329834 356815 385229 414287 443262 471735 FEMALES 0-4 29042 31751 33362 33924 34357 35882 38016 39610 40619 41351 5-9 26748 28623 31366 33041 33669 34143 35706 37867 39494 40536 10-14 25251 26598 28490 31249 32943 33588 34079 35651 37820 39459 15-19 22850 25099 26466 28377 31147 32855 33518 34018 35599 37778 20-24 21037 22626 24906 26304 28239 31026 32758 33431 33944 35536 25-29 18539 20779 22407 24720 26150 28108 30915 32656 33341 33868 30-34 15851 18302 20572 22233 24571 26019 27996 30802 32552 33251 35-39 12958 15636 18108 20398 22078 24426 25889 27869 30676 32435 40-44 10697 12760 15444 17924 20223 21908 24258 25727 27710 30516 45-49 9501 10494 12554 15229 17708 19999 21686 24032 25506 27493 50-54 8361 9255 10254 12301 14958 17416 19693 21377 23718 25199 55-59 7218 8050 8948 9950 11975 14588 17018 19275 20959 23294 60-64 6006 6808 7639 8541 9544 11520 14075 16468 18704 20394 65-69 4191 5454 6247 7080 7987 8964 10873 13350 15699 17915 70-74 3659 3552 4707 5487 6317 7184 8124 9938 12306 14599 75+ 4550 5097 5473 6751 8428 10246 12219 14385 17481 21839 TOTAL 226459 250884 276943 303508 330295 357873 386823 416457 446127 475464 BIRTH RATE 29.0 27.3 25.1 23.1 22.2 21.6 20.7 19.7 18.7 DEATH RATE 8.0 7.3 6.7 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.10 2.00 1.85 1.69 1.60 1.55 1.47 1.37 1.26 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 -.5 -.3 -.2 -.1 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.04 1.96 1.81 1.67 1.59 1.54 1.47 1.36 1.26 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.670 3.409 3.140 2.912 2.798 2.742 2.677 2.612 2.547 NRR 1.631 1.534 1.430 1.339 1.295 1.286 1.270 1.245 1.223 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 66.49 67.94 69.64 71.20 72.23 73.30 74.43 75.63 76.89 etl5) - BOTH SEXES 56.57 57.44 58.55 59.55 60.16 60.80 61.47 62.16 62.88 INR - BOTH SEXES 60.0 53.2 46.0 39.2 33.9 28.2 22.2 16.0 9.5 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0753 .0660 .0565 .0477 .0414 .0346 .0274 .0199 .0121 DEP. RATIO 70.0 67.1 65.1 62.6 59.1 56.2 55.1 55.7 56.5 57.0 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 39 Sumary Projection for 25-Year Perf ods UPPER-MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES AGE GROWP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 454297 607227 889388 1155153 1332825 1432746 1471841 1484873 MALES 0-4 30182 35248 42558 44973 44636 44394 44352 44356 5-9 27717 34228 41274 44825 44409 44267 44304 44329 10-14 26102 32288 39419 44379 43980 44225 44322 44339 15-19 23614 29341 36972 43905 43923 44301 44347 44324 20-24 21681 27065 35080 43060 44450 44395 44289 44239 25-29 19017 25271 34271 41974 44575 44315 44119 44095 30-34 16393 22643 3328. 40579 44300 43981 43897 43958 35-39 13232 20671 31199 38564 43682 43409 43729 43859 40-44 10707 18030 28103 35947 42995 43171 43649 43741 45-49 9363 15356 25615 33834 41898 43465 43546 43503 50-54 8067 12093 23433 32550 40370 43179 43112 43008 55-59 6755 9373 20235 30M85 38246 42218 42191 42243 60-64 5338 7668 17368 27657 35223 40596 40755 41250 65-69 3617 5960 13728 23325 31260 38413 39182 39897 70-74 2928 4242 9992 19108 27173 35114 37338 37820 75+ 3124 4240 10727 28687 50265 69832 83231 86751 TOTAL 227837 303719 443262 574151 661386 709275 726361 731713 FEMALES 0-4 29042 33924 40619 42849 42543 42323 42285 42290 5-9 26748 33041 39494 42710 42333 42209 42249 42274 10-14 25251 31249 37820 42289 41924 42170 42269 42287 15-19 22850 28377 35599 41872 41890 42260 42313 42291 20-24 21037 26304 33944 41165 42462 42411 42317 42267 25-29 18539 24720 33341 40347 42687 42433 42247 42220 30-34 15851 22233 32552 39211 42519 42206 42123 42179 35-39 12958 20398 30676 37464 42024 41747 42045 42168 40-44 10697 17924 27710 35144 41508 41641 42082 42168 45-49 9501 15229 25506 33344 40663 42107 42160 42114 50-54 8361 12301 23718 32484 39622 42158 42059 41945 55-59 7218 9950 20959 31314 38164 41730 41649 41674 60-64 6006 8541 18704 28960 35989 40873 40938 41385 65-69 4191 7080 15699 25450 33098 39826 40453 41107 70-74 3659 5487 12306 22342 30389 38146 40264 40662 75+ 4550 6751 17481 44056 73625 99229 118025 124128 TOTAL 226459 303508 446127 581001 671439 723471 745479 753159 BIRTH RATE 27.0 21.3 17.0 13.9 12.5 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.3 6.1 6.7 8.2 9.7 10.9 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.5 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.93 1.53 1.05 .57 .29 .11 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.386 2.739 2.393 2.092 2.062 2.059 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 68.13 73.53 78.55 81.77 83.60 85.05 85.63 IMR - BOTH SEXES 52.9 27.5 7.3 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 40 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS HIGH-INCOME ECONOMIES Pqotption Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 l995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 795905 821755 847354 869349 888513 9030 916367 927101 935661 941463 MALES 0-4 27688 27851 28575 27857 27412 27172 27296 27580 2m4 27860 5-9 27939 27971 28073 28720 274 27471 27198 27304 275n 27748 10-14 30301 28152 28141 28188 28799 28006 27500 27216 27310 27566 15-19 32324 30481 28294 28229 28243 28825 28012 27496 27202 27286 20-24 3374 32670 30748 28462 28329 282? 28620 27986 27448 27132 25-29 32390 34193 33024 30965 28596 28385 28278 28774 27908 27340 30-34 31032 32774 34464 33176 31050 28627 28362 28227 28694 27805 35-39 29909 31244 32907 34504 33173 31014 28564 28281 28128 28576 40-44 24900 29906 31194 32796 34359 33013 30849 28407 28116 27956 45-49 22822 24679 29615 30879 32471 34016 32689 30559 28148 27868 50-54 21238 22305 24159 29016 30291 31869 33408 32133 30065 27714 55-59 20212 20380 21489 23348 28122 29394 30969 32519 31332 29365 60-64 17564 l8889 19191 20360 22242 26863 28150 29743 31330 30281 65-69 12825 15756 17148 17609 18852 20693 25115 26435 28069 29723 70-74 11305 10762 13452 14905 15545 16781 1l68 22717 24091 25789 75+ 14147 15710 16652 19631 23139 26035 2890 32420 38433 43943 TOTAL 390320 403723 417124 428645 438577 446451 452686 457798 461620 463951 FEMALES 0-4 26268 26481 27154 26463 26034 25802 25915 26181 26360 26437 5-9 26493 26573 26723 27317 26575 26105 2S540 25934 26181 26342 10-14 28714 26722 26757 26849 27406 26635 26142 25863 2594 26178 15-19 30754 28963 26919 26894 26945 27468 266T 26163 25869 25935 20-24 32589 31222 29331 27180 27076 27065 27535 26709 261n 25849 25-29 31502 33134 31648 29631 2739 27212 27138 27572 26712 26141 30-34 30379 31892 33429 31850 29768 27475 27250 27151 27558 26674 35-39 29429 30589 32041 33514 31899 29787 27471 27232 27117 27510 40-44 24707 29455 30586 32006 33459 31836 2972 27409 27166 27048 45-49 22884 24592 29306 30430 31848 33295 3166 29590 27294 27058 50-54 21677 22628 24336 29019 30155 31S72 33022 31444 29381 27115 55-59 21519 21267 22239 23959 28612 29755 31180 32644 31115 29104 60-64 20797 20872 20697 21709 23454 28053 MI7 30664 32157 30704 65-69 16188 19782 19974 19919 20998 22746 2n79 2"48 29975 31525 70-74 15781 14837 18327 18695 18816 19933 21695 26144 27422 28994 75s 25905 29023 30761 35269 39502 42691 45917 50121 57617 64897 TOTAL 405585 418032 430230 440704 449935 457430 463681 469303 474041 477512 BIRTH RATE 13.5 13.4 12.7 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.4 RATE OF MAT. INC. .46 .47 .42 .37 .30 .25 .21 .17 .12 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.8 1.4 1.o .7 .S .3 .2 .1 .0 GROWTH RATE .64 .61 .51 .44 .34 .27 .23 .18 .12 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.728 1.786 1.797 1.846 1.896 1.942 1.9S2 2.019 2.054 NRR .837 .855 .860 .886 .913 .937 .957 .975 .993 0(0) - BOTH SEXES 76.14 77.22 78.27 79.26 79.88 80.51 81.17 81.85 82.56 *(IS) - BOTH SEXES 62.14 63.10 64.06 64.97 65.52 66.09 66.68 67.30 67.93 IMR - BOTH SEXES 9.2 7.9 6.8 6.0 5.4 4.S 4.2 3.6 3.1 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0116 .0101 .0088 .0078 .0071 .0064 .0057 .0050 .0044 DEP. RATIO 49.5 48.8 49.8 50.4 51.2 52.2 55.6 59.7 64.5 69.8 WORLD, OROGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 41 Swimnry Projection for 25-Year P*rfods HIGH-INCOME ECONOMIS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 795905 869349 935661 930089 916408 920866 926274 929183 MALES 0-4 27688 27857 2M4 27633 27612 27625 27634 27634 5-9 27939 28720 27572 27516 2758 27614 27619 27616 10-14 30301 28188 27310 27501 27614 27626 27618 27612 15-19 32324 28229 27202 27649 P7648 27615 27598 27594 20-24 33724 28462 27448 27747 27602 27550 27544 27549 25-29 32390 30965 27908 27563 27451 2747 27470 27483 30-34 31032 33176 28694 291 27272 27361 27405 27416 35-39 29909 34504 28128 269f2 27173 2715 27346 27348 40-44 24900 32796 28116 26701 27215 27256 27251 27247 45-49 22822 30879 28148 26792 27179 27093 27078 27088 50-54 21238 29016 30065 26966 26763 26734 26778 26823 55-59 20212 23348 31332 27236 26102 26206 26364 26440 60-64 17564 20360 31330 25988 25172 25576 25817 25897 65-69 12825 17609 28069 24916 24072 24790 24986 25057 70-74 11305 14905 24091 23323 22781 23478 23634 23734 75+ 14147 19631 38433 55373 52375 53002 54735 55769 TOTAL 390320 428645 461620 457128 45161S 454289 456878 458309 FEMALES 0-4 26268 26463 26360 26225 26204 26216 26224 26225 5-9 26493 27317 26181 26120 26184 26211 26216 26213 10-14 28714 26849 25944 26107 26215 26225 26217 26212 15-19 30754 26894 25869 26261 26260 26227 26210 26207 20-24 32589 27180 26172 26395 26256 26202 26194 26199 25-29 31502 29631 26712 26293 26174 26162 26180 26190 30-34 30379 31850 27558 26101 26062 26139 26174 26182 35-39 29429 33514 27117 25828 26023 26149 26171 26168 40-44 24707 32006 27166 25705 26140 26166 26150 26140 45-49 22884 30430 27294 25938 26224 26123 26093 26096 50-54 21677 29019 29m1 26359 26040 25977 26000 26033 55-59 21519 23959 31115 27015 25725 25769 25895 25954 60-64 20797 21709 32157 26331 25280 25593 25792 25847 65-69 16188 19919 29975 26004 24902 25504 25639 25673 70-74 15781 18695 27422 25522 24699 25247 25315 25362 75+ 25905 35269 57617 80757 76404 76665 78928 80175 TOTAL 405585 440704 474041 472961 464794 466577 469396 470874 BIRTH RATE 13.2 11.8 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.7 9.3 11.8 12.3 11.6 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.4 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .59 .29 -.02 -.06 .02 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.7M 1.935 2.064 2.064 2.063 2.062 2.062 oCO) - BOTH SEXES 77.23 80.55 83.26 84.65 85.41. 85.97 86.20 IMR - BOTH SEXES 8.0 4.8 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 42 WORM, GEOORAHIC REOIONS. AND INCOME GROUPS NONREPORlTING NONMEMBER ECONOMIES Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 314169 328200 341073 354230 367424 379976 392064 403338 414129 424325 MALES 0-4 14724 15429 14397 13973 14213 14590 14674 14534 14382 14331 5-9 13567 14570 15303 14337 13922 14168 14550 14639 14505 14358 10-14 13231 13468 14489 15264 14305 13895 14144 14529 14623 14493 15-19 12834 13100 13361 14428 15208 14257 13854 14107 14496 14595 20-24 11807 12600 12913 13260 14334 15117 14180 13786 14046 14441 25-29 13452 11517 12367 12792 13155 14229 15015 14093 13710 13976 30-34 12750 13135 11297 12244 12687 13054 14128 14918 14012 13640 35-39 11186 12436 12882 11163 12126 12574 12947 14023 14821 13932 40-44 7609 10866 12152 12674 11015 11978 12433 12814 13894 14701 45-49 7788 7329 10536 11860 12414 10808 11772 12237 12631 13717 50-54 8697 7404 7010 10139 11470 12035 10506 11471 11952 12366 55-59 7101 8078 6925 6601 9607 10912 11496 10081 11051 11560 60-64 6153 6360 7293 6305 6065 8881 10156 10771 9513 10496 65-69 3013 5211 5443 6306 5524 5373 7940 9171 9822 8767 70-74 2076 2343 4094 4344 5118 4560 4509 6754 7915 8597 75+ 2995 2735 2811 4175 5242 6403 6764 6983 9012 11470 TOTAL .148983 156581 163272 169864 176405 182835 189068 194912 200384 205439 FEMALES 0-4 14359 14803 13800 13383 13601 13959 14036 13898 13748 13696 5-9 13123 14229 14700 13760 13349 13572 13934 14015 13882 13737 10-14 12840 13044 14168 14681 13744 13336 13561 13925 14009 13879 15-19 12250 12747 12975 14147 14662 13728 13323 13551 13917 14003 20-24 11619 12091 12629 12948 14121 14638 13708 13306 13535 13903 25-29 13288 11431 11953 12598 12920 14093 14611 13684 13285 13516 30-34 12681 13118 11313 11918 12566 12889 14062 14581 13659 13262 35-39 11327 12533 13005 11269 11879 12527 12853 14025 14546 13629 40-44 7842 11191 12419 12932 11215 11825 12475 12803 13975 14499 45-49 8507 7723 11062 12313 12837 11137 11749 12401 12734 13907 50-54 9856 8335 7595 10917 12174 12700 11025 11639 12293 12633 55-59 8792 9568 8135 7444 10731 11980 12510 10871 11490 12150 60-64 9338 8394 9215 7885 7253 10475 11716 12256 10670 11299 65-69 6085 8654 7894 8764 7565 6983 10118 11353 11914 10406 70-74 4775 5334 7786 7242 8166 7090 6584 9596 10829 11427 75+ 8505 8425 9150 12164 14235 16208 16732 16521 19259 22941 TOTAL 165186 171620 177801 184366 191019 197141 202996 208425 213745 218886 BIRTH RATE 19.4 17.3 16.0 15.7 15.5 15.1 14.4 13.9 13.5 DEATH RATE 9.6 8.9 8.4 8.3 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. .97 .84 .76 .73 .67 .63 .57 .53 .49 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.7 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .87 .77 .76 .73 .67 .63 .57 .53 .49 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.557 2.371 2.252 2.199 2.154 2.105 2.077 2.069 2.066 NRR 1.217 1.124 1.070 1.049 1.032 1.011 1.000 .999 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 70.55 72.28 73.89 75.41 76.26 77.14 78.08 79.06 80.09 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 57.64 59.13 60.51 61.81 62.50 63.23 63.99 64.80 65.65 .IHR - BOTH SEXES 23.6 20.3 17.0 14.1 12.2 10.3 8.4 6.6 4.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0286 .0246 .0207 .0173 .0151 .0128 .0107 .0085 .0063 DEP. RATIO 53.3 56.3 57.1 56.9 54.1 52.1 54.0 56.7 59.1 59.4 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 43 Sunmary Projection for 25-Year Periods NONREPORTING NONMEMBER ECONOMIES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 314169 354230 414129 452441 470459 478681 483705 486150 MALES 0-4 14724 13973 14382 14478 14478 14466 14462 14461 5-9 13567 14337 14505 14500 14463 14449 14449 14451 10-14 13231 15264 14623 14466 14436 14439 14447 14449 15-19 12834 14428 14496 14357 14400 14429 14441 14442 2n-24 11807 13260 14046 14240 14373 14412 14419 14419 25-29 13452 12792 13710 14221 14362 14380 14379 14380 30-34 12750 12244 14012 14297 14344 14331 14331 14338 35-39 11186 11163 14821 14348 14257 14258 14281 14299 40-44 7609 12674 13894 14142 14080 14166 14223 14248 45-49 7788 11860 12631 13605 13883 14070 14145 14168 50-54 8697 10139 11952 13098 13715 13934 14002 14024 55-59 7101 6601 11051 13073 13532 13703 13766 1bu2 60-64 6153 6305 9513 13318 13195 13300 13414 13488 65-69 3013 6306 9822 11767 12439 12655 12896 13024 70-74 2076 4344 7915 9723 11133 11747 12143 12318 75+ 2995 4175 9012 16671 22800 25819 27652 28547 TOTAL 148983 169864 2003d4 220304 229887 234558 237451 238858 FEMALES 0-4 14359 13383 13748 13820 13813 13798 13793 13792 5-9 13123 1V760 13882 13850 13803 13786 13784 13785 10-14 12840 14681 14009 13828 13780 13778 13783 13785 15-19 12250 14147 13917 13742 13754 13m 13785 13785 20-24 11619 12948 13535 13669 13755 13783 13784 13782 25-29 13288 12598 13285 13705 13789 13788 13778 13775 30-34 12681 11918 13659 13828 13814 13776 13764 13766 35-39 11327 11269 14546 13932 13774 13740 13747 13756 40-44 7842 12932 13975 13808 13666 13698 13733 13746 45-49 8507 12313 12734 13387 13563 13676 13721 13730 50-54 9856 10917 12293 13070 13547 13671 13696 13697 55-59 8792 7444 11490 13329 13592 13638 13638 13643 60-64 9338 7885 10670 14027 13581 13517 13537 13569 65-69 6085 8764 11914 13242 13296 13290 13400 13470 70-74 4775 7242 10829 11723 12629 12992 13219 13319 75+ 8505 12164 19259 29178 36416 39413 41090 41893 TOTAL 165186 184366 213745 232137 240572 244123 246254 247293 BIRTH RATE 17.5 14.9 13.0 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.0 8.6 9.5 10.7 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .80 .62 .35 .16 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.3Psr 2.120 2.064 2.060 2.058 2.057 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 72.29 77.25 81.24 83.48 84.71 85.63 85.99 IMR - BOTH SEXES 20.4 10.3 4.0 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC REGION 46 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC PopuLation Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1677719 1814916 1950898 2975444 2187960 2291651 2392498 2491538 2585566 2670551 MALES 0-4 86513 97720 99487 95805 91625 90115 91785 94135 94854 93943 5-9 85667 85457 96814 98727 9S208 91128 89697 91434 93857 94656 10-14 98764 85262 85098 96479 98434 94961 90924 89531 91305 93766 15-19 98071 98212 84811 84688 96091 98078 94653 90666 89317 91130 20-24 84207 97270 97452 84177 84101 95506 97531 94174 90262 88976 25-29 69678 83385 96405 96646 83495 83450 94849 96916 93641 89812 30-34 67963 68937 82586 95606 958s1 82844 82834 94237 96359 93170 35-39 52838 67141 68141 81758 94753 95068 82163 82202 93622 95810 40-44 42846 52001 66146 67204 80748 93678 94050 81322 81431 92861 45-49 39703 41839 50884 64837 65950 79357 92194 92653 80185 80390 50-54 35775 38285 40439 49335 62983 64139 M730 90012 90599 78510 55-59 30376 33835 36302 38497 47173 60344 61575 74461 86932 87712 60-64 23258 27842 31174 33614 35888 44199 56725 58079 70568 82782 65-69 17016 20322 24514 27702 30127 32393 40202 51860 53386 65336 70-74 11753 13766 16639 20338 23344 25617 27844 34958 45451 47182 75+ 10623 13689 16870 20949 26521 32326 37727 42896 52128 67049 TOTAL 855052 924963 993762 1056363 1112323 1163203 1212082 1259537 1303897 1343086 FEMALES 0-4 81326 93783 95650 92009 87899 86352 87852 89996 90578 89606 5-9 80643 80491 93092 95089 91588 87545 86050 87595 89789 90425 10-14 93265 80327 80221 92856 94894 91420 87403 85932 87500 89718 15-19 93403 92837 79999 79941 92615 94672 91230 87246 85806 87403 20-24 80386 92768 92291 79585 79591 92276 94364 90973 87047 85659 25-29 66542 79673 92073 91713 79154 79192 91893 94028 90712 86860 30-34 64571 65851 78958 91401 91165 78705 78784 91508 93705 90471 35-39 49450 63801 65137 78239 90723 90552 78216 78348 91102 93373 40-44 39775 48722 62943 64363 77444 89902 89815 77637 77841 90626 45-49 36790 38978 47841 61915 63423 76411 88833 88861 76900 77200 50-54 33758 35738 37947 46715 60589 62161 75029 87406 87599 75934 55-59 29063 32371 34354 36611 45256 58816 60489 73211 85546 85977 60-64 24064 27276 30498 32507 34845 43278 56428 58260 70816 83140 65-69 18883 21763 24794 27913 30005 32404 40555 53168 55254 67643 70-74 14239 16000 18598 21389 24418 26545 29022 36781 48667 51130 75+ 16508 19573 22740 26831 32026 38216 44452 51053 62808 82301 TOTAL 822667 889952 957136 1019080 1075636 1128448 1180416 1232001 1281669 1327465 BIRTH RATE 23.0 21.6 19.3 17.3 16.1 15.7 15.3 14.8 14.1 DEATH RATE 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.58 1.45 1.24 1.06 .93 .86 .81 .74 .65 NET NIGRATION RATE -.0 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.57 1.45 1.24 1.06 .93 .86 .81 .74 .65 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.713 2.489 2.290 2.184 2.133 2.110 2.101 2.093 2.086 NRR 1.239 1.142 1.058 1.020 1.003 .997 .998 .999 1.001 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 68.25 69.51 70.85 72.28 73.30 74.37 75.50 76.70 77.98 WS) - BOTH SEXES 56.96 57.64 58.50 59.48 60.25 61.07 61.93 62.86 63.84 IMR - BOTH SEXES 39.7 33.8 28.2 23.1 20.2 17.2 14.2 11.2 8.2 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0513 .0430 .0355 .0289 .0253 .0216 .0179 .0141 .0104 DEP. RATIO 57.9 52.9 52.8 52.7 49.7 46.7 46.0 48.1 50.3 53.7 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 47 Summary Projectlon for 25-Year Periods EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 167719 2075444 2585566 2883609 2995O07 3058468 3100163 3121347 MALES 0-4 86513 95805 94854 93584 93152 93086 93115 93124 5-9 85667 98727 93857 92833 92891 93018 93071 93068 10-14 98764 96479 91305 92199 92909 93094 93092 93061 15-19 98071 84688 89317 92402 93154 93140 93040 92999 20-24 84207 84177 90262 93295 93250 92957 92828 92828 25-29 69678 96646 93641 93736 92805 92509 92522 92585 30-34 67963 95606 96359 9249t 91812 92031 92260 92357 35-39 52838 81758 93622 89583 90843 91753 92077 92136 40-44 42846 67204 81431 87137 90611 91633 91808 91793 45-49 39703 64837 80185 87421 90945 91276 91227 91211 50-54 35775 49335 90599 89462 90386 90026 90065 90234 55-59 30376 38497 86932 89912 87519 87690 88391 88847 60-64 23258 33614 70568 84180 82320 84711 86299 86952 65-69 17016 27702 53386 68813 76497 81376 83388 84056 70-74 11753 20338 45451 61778 71295 76846 78734 79435 75+ 10623 20949 52128 127505 152456 166239 177362 183496 TOTAL 855052 1056363 1303897 1436335 1482846 1511385 1529278 1538182 FEMALES 0-4 81326 92009 90578 89195 88776 88724 88756 88767 5-9 80643 95089 89789 88517 88542 88676 88733 88733 10-14 93265 92856 87500 87943 88564 88753 88760 88733 15-19 93403 79941 85806 88214 88843 88837 88750 88713 20-24 80386 79585 87047 89>54 89076 88790 88670 88669 25-29 66542 91713 90712 90031 88890 88564 88569 88623 30-34 64571 91401 93705 89178 88154 88297 88504 88592 35-39 49450 78239 91102 86706 87433 88212 88503 88554 40-44 39775 64363 77841 84749 87495 88344 88482 88458 45-49 36790 61915 76900 85553 88227 88374 88288 88259 50-54 33758 46715 87599 88409 88495 87853 87819 87958 55-59 29063 36611 85546 90152 86900 86618 87187 87590 60-64 24064 32507 70816 85974 83419 85182 86581 87159 65-69 18883 27913 55254 71147 79973 84163 85937 86500 70-74 14239 21389 48667 66856 78154 83081 84687 85257 75+ 16508 26831 62808 165395 211221 234615 252661 262599 TOTAL 822667 1019080 1281669 1447274 1512161 1547083 1570885 1583165 BIRTH RATE 21.2 15.8 13.3 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.0 7.0 9.0 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.42 .88 .44 .15 .08 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.480 2.123 2.078 2.066 2.062 2.059 2.058 etO) - BOTH SEXES 69.60 74.53 79.40 82.27 83.94 85.23 85.74 IMR - BOTH SEXES 34.0 17.1 6.4 3.4 2.7 2.2 2.0 48 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENIS EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC COUNTRY DEPARTMENT I Population Projectlon (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 270363 298981 328060 355856 3824s5 407226 431496 455832 479464 501695 MALES 0-4 18997 19483 19887 19502 19060 18507 18685 19204 19366 19222 5-9 16933 18687 19227 19668 19335 18918 18388 18584 19121 19303 10-14 16434 16812 18572 19120 19577 19258 18854 18335 18542 19089 15-19 15482 16278 16674 18432 18998 19467 19163 18774 18271 18490 20-24 13362 15237 16057 16468 18237 18820 19306 19026 18661 18182 25-29 11308 13090 14979 15808 16256 18028 18629 19138 18888 18553 30-34 9138 11058 12851 14732 15593 16063 17839 18461 18994 18775 35-39 7064 8909 10825 12611 14503 15380 15874 17655 18301 18861 40-44 5766 6848 8674 10572 12362 14248 15141 15659 17446 18119 45-49 5264 5541 6606 8398 10280 12053 13927 14837 15384 17176 50-54 4465 4985 5266 6304 8053 9893 11639 13491 14420 15002 55-59 3512 4129 4629 4912 5913 7590 9371 11075 12896 13849 60-64 2700 3128 3696 4167 4452 5397 6976 8675 10323 12099 65-69 1940 2270 2645 3150 3587 3870 4738 6185 7770 9335 70-74 1359 1492 1758 2068 2495 2885 3157 3921 5189 6612 75+ 1215 1446 1658 1955 2349 2901 3534 4133 5094 6712 TOTAL 134938 149393 164004 177867 191049 203279 215220 227155 238667 249381 FEMALES 0-4 18129 18777 19145 18750 18300 17756 17915 18399 18541 18389 5-9 16207 17869 18570 18973 1862 18195 17668 17842 18342 18501 10-14 15587 16106 17780 18491 18909 18570 18151 17634 17816 18324 15-19 14806 15459 16004 17683 18413 18841 18513 18106 17600 17792 20-24 13413 14610 15298 15866 17565 18309 18751 18442 18052 17564 25-29 11846 13189 14415 15128 15734 17440 18199 18661 18374 18008 30-34 9346 11632 12998 14243 14992 15615 17325 18100 18582 18319 35-39 7039 9156 11446 12827 14098 14860 15499 17213 18004 18506 40-44 5881 6876 8981 11268 12666 13942 14717 15370 17089 17898 45-49 5466 5717 6710 8797 11077 12473 13751 14540 15212 16936 50-54 4795 5265 5529 6515 8579 10831 12222 13504 14312 15008 55-59 3840 4548 5020 5299 6278 8294 10509 11896 13186 14021 60-64 3150 3548 4232 4707 5005 5960 7914 10082 11468 12774 65-69 2305 2784 3165 3815 4 m 4602 5525 7398 9508 10901 70-74 1722 188 2309 2662 326S 3728 4051 4931 6692 8723 75+ 1894 2162 2453 2966 3609 4533 5565 6559 8019 10650 TOTAL 135425 149588 164056 177989 191407 203948 216275 228677 240796 252314 BIRTH RATE 28.5 26.1 23.3 20.9 18.9 17.9 17.3 16.5 15.5 DEATH RATE 7.9 7.2 6.7 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.06 1.89 1.66 1.47 1.27 1.17 1.11 1.01 .91 NET MIGRATION RATE -.5 -.3 -.3 -.2 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.01 1.86 1.63 1.44 1.26 1.16 1.10 1.01 .91 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.481 3.079 2.751 2.488 2.257 2.155 2.135 2.120 2.107 NRR 1.534 1.385 1.256 1.152 1.053 1.012 1.009 1.008 1.007 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 64.34 66.01 67.75 69.53 70.71 71.95 73.26 74.64 76.10 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 53.82 54.77 55.88 57.11 58.02 58.99 60.01 61.09 62.24 INR - BOTH SEXES 47.6 40.6 33.3 27.1 23.9 20.9 17.8 14.5 11.2 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0634 .0532 .0428 .0342 .0303 .0265 .0226 .0184 .0142 DEP. RATIO 71.5 66.8 63.3 58.3 53.6 48.9 46.1 45.8 47.3 49.3 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 49 Sumury Projection EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC COUNTRY DEPARTMENT I AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 270363 355856 479464 567003 604924 621764 632327 637617 MALES 0-4 18997 19502 19366 19118 19054 19052 19061 19063 5-9 16933 19668 19121 18946 19003 19039 19052 19051 10-14 16434 19120 18542 18830 19015 19054 19055 19049 15-19 15482 18432 18271 18897 19061 19057 19042 19035 20-24 13362 16468 18661 19041 19057 19009 18995 18999 25-29 11308 15808 18888 19068 18933 18909 18931 18949 30-34 9138 14732 18994 18777 18709 18811 18877 18901 35-39 7064 12611 18301 18120 18518 18757 18835 18853 40-44 5766 10572 17446 17744 18485 18722 18770 18778 45-49 8398 15384 17973 18501 18619 18635 18653 50-54 4465 6304 14420 17897 18301 18317 18382 18446 55-59 3512 4912 12896 171.91 17638 1,796 18026 18154 60-64 2700 4167 10323 16108 16461 17159 17581 17750 65-69 1940 3150 7770 14294 15297 16438 16950 17131 70-74 1359 2068 5189 11265 14236 15389 15933 16149 75+ 1215 1955 5094 16913 27793 32200 35302 36948 TOTAL 134938 177867 238667 280481 298063 306328 311426 313907 FEMALES 0-4 18129 18750 18541 18245 18169 18164 18171 18173 5-9 16207 18973 18342 18101 18127 18157 18167 18166 10-14 15587 18491 17816 18008 18142 18174 18171 18165 15-19 14806 17683 17600 18104 18200 18187 18168 18160 20-24 13413 15866 18052 18302 18232 18171 18150 18152 25-29 11846 15128 18374 18407 18175 18122 18130 18143 30-34 9346 14243 18582 18197 18019 18073 18119 18137 35-39 7039 12827 18004 17631 17895 18064 18119 18128 40-44 5881 11268 17089 17355 17944 18090 18110 18105 45-49 5466 8797 15212 17707 18072 18077 18062 18062 50-54 4795 6515 14312 17858 18064 17947 17961 18000 55-59 3840 5299 13186 17802 17690 17681 17833 17925 60-64 3150 4707 11468 16886 16901 17399 17711 17833 65-69 2305 3815 9508 15507 16287 17206 17569 17688 70-74 1722 2662 6692 13089 16032 16931 17279 17417 75+ 1894 2966 8019 25324 40911 46992 51181 53456 TOTAL 135425 177989 240796 286522 306861 315437 320901 323710 BIRTH RATE 25.8 18.2 14.3 12.7 12.2 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.2 6.2 7.6 10.1 11.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.4 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .O GROWTH RATE 1.83 1.19 .67 .26 .11 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.070 2.223 2.088 2.068 2.062 2.059 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 66.14 72.17 77.88 81.37 83.39 84.96 85.57 INR - BOTH SEXES 40.6 20.8 8.6 4.1 3.0 2.3 2.1 50 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS EAST ASIA AND) PACIFIC COUNTRY DEPARTMENT II Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1049839 1135822 1220561 1296284 1362617 1423648 1483991 1544142 1601293 1652090 MALES 0-4 47998 60411 61629 58334 54746 53830 55379 57305 57876 57051 5-9 49847 47612 60026 61305 58071 54535 53659 55239 57197 57804 10-14 63751 49659 47458 59868 61164 57957 54449 53593 55191 57169 15-19 66262 63464 49455 47293 59686 60998 57819 54336 53500 55114 20-24 55551 65829 63069 49178 47049 59405 60733 57588 54139 53326 25-29 44299 55132 65360 62680 48879 46777 59083 60422 57310 53893 30-34 45384 43944 54722 64961 62300 48594 46518 58778 60128 57049 35-39 33894 44955 43553 54314 64510 61891 48292 46248 58461 59828 40-44 26769 33452 44414 43092 53779 63910 61349 47894 45891 58042 45-49 25180 26233 32829 43676 42425 52996 63037 60565 47324 45386 50-54 23358 24378 25450 31936 42574 41410 51800 61698 59359 46444 55-59 19496 22166 23208 24328 30646 40953 39929 50066 59776 57646 60-64 15444 17929 20481 21580 22788 28829 38688 37879 47695 57184 65-69 11224 13533 15831 18253 19445 20676 26338 35589 35083 44475 70-74 7491 9099 11096 13155 15425 16618 17868 23015 31441 31331 75+ 6261 8474 10847 13760 17309 21252 24696 27900 34255 45702 TOTAL 542209 586270 629427 667714 700796 730632 759637 788115 814626 837445 FEMALES 0-4 44560 58108 59209 55983 52484 51529 52931 54690 55152 54285 5-9 46506 44291 57841 58997 55817 52346 51410 52826 54S99 55078 10-14 59733 46373 44185 5sm8 58911 55744 52285 51359 52783 54563 15-19 61869 59516 46228 44081 57632 58813 55661 52216 51299 52730 20-24 51230 61514 59223 46051 43945 57476 58671 55542 52120 51221 25-29 40817 50839 61116 58927 45865 43786 57296 58511 55414 52021 30-34 42416 40448 50445 60748 58646 45666 43617 57106 58345 55284 35-39 30694 41960 40060 50057 60367 58314 45435 43423 56890 58161 40-44 23581 30266 41437 39638 49609 59878 57891 45142 43180 56619 45-49 22051 23125 29729 40794 39100 48998 59214 57319 44752 42860 50-54 20827 21426 22514 29029 39943 38357 48157 58308 56549 44233 55-59 17764 19958 20584 21711 28107 38788 37357 47039 57120 55557 60-64 15050 16641 18758 19441 20633 26840 37217 36014 45562 55587 65-69 11915 13538 15038 17065 17869 19123 25081 35062 34204 43622 0-74 880l 9984 11415 12795 14753 15673 17014 22633 32086 31736 75. 9816 11564 13352 15516 18139 21686 25119 28837 36612 51088 TOTAL 507630 549552 591133 628570 661821 693016 724354 756027 786666 814645 BIRTH RATE 22.5 21.1 18.6 16.5 15.4 15.1 15.0 14.5 13.8 DEATH RATE 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.58 1.45 1.21 1.00 .88 .83 .80 .73 .63 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.57 1.44 1.20 1.00 .88 .83 .79 .73 .62 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.585 2.377 2.187 2.114 2.107 2.100 2.091 2.084 2.078 NRR 1.195 1.108 1.028 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 69.43 70.62 71.90 73.27 74.28 75.35 76.47 77.65 78.90 e(is) - BOTH SEXES 57.63 58.27 59.12 60.12 60.90 61.72 62.60 63.53 64.51 IMR - BOTH SEXES 32.1 26.9 22.0 17.9 15.3 12.8 10.2 7.6 5.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0392 .0322 .0265 .0216 .0186 .0156 .0127 .0097 .0067 DEP. RATIO 53.9 48.8 50.2 51.9 48.4 44.9 44.4 47.6 50.4 54.7 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 51 Summary Projection EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC COUNTRY DEPARITMENT II AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1049839 1296284 1601293 1769039 1827645 1860475 1881235 1891917 MALES 0-4 47998 58334 57876 56768 56374 56318 56l42 56351 5-9 49847 61305 57197 56220 56170 56273 56319 56320 10-14 63751 59868 55191 55707 56176 56338 56341 56318 15-19 66262 47293 53500 55872 56402 56399 56315 56280 20-24 55551 49178 54139 56756 56570 56305 56183 56174 25-29 44299 62680 57310 57328 56347 56012 55988 56027 30-34 45384 64961 60128 56486 55661 55682 55829 55896 35-39 33894 54314 58461 54274 54959 55518 55741 55774 40-44 26769 43092 45891 52328 54872 55533 55620 55577 45-49 25180 43676 47324 52608 55436 55438 55294 55226 50-54 23358 31936 59359 55011 55439 54752 54583 54634 55-59 19496 24328 59776 56515 53687 53299 53557 53809 60-64 15444 21580 47695 53184 50244 51454 52331 52707 65-69 11224 18253 35083 39648 46506 49589 50698 51022 70-74 7491 13155 31441 37597 43754 47305 48054 48291 75. 6261 13760 34255 88933 98765 104551 109365 112224 TOTAL 542209 667714 814626 885235 907361 920766 928557 932631 FEMALES 0-4 44560 55983 55152 54070 53719 53680 53707 53718 5-9 46506 58997 54599 53539 53531 53645 53696 53700 10-14 59733 57738 52783 53034 53536 53707 53721 53702 15-19 61869 44081 51299 53196 53771 53786 53719 53688 20-24 51230 46051 52120 54104 54008 53767 53665 53658 25-29 40817 58927 55414 54863 53905 53602 53590 53628 30-34 42416 60748 58345 54264 53339 53394 53545 53613 35-39 30694 50057 56890 52349 52748 53337 53563 53600 40-44 23581 39638 43180 50728 52789 53487 53581 53548 45-49 22051 40794 44752 51308 53521 53606 53478 53424 50-54 20827 29029 56549 54125 53987 53312 53172 53232 55-59 17764 21711 57120 56306 52970 52464 52754 53010 60-64 15050 19441 45562 53929 50508 51472 52396 52775 65-69 11915 17065 34204 39812 48093 50904 52097 52419 70-74 8801 12795 32086 39345 47234 50600 51471 51699 75+ 9816 15516 36612 108834 132626 144946 154524 159870 TOTAL 507630 628570 786666 883804 920283 939708 952678 959286 BIRTH RATE 20.7 15.3 13.0 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.6 6.8 9.1 11.0 11.3 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.41 .85 .40 .13 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.362 2.099 2.073 2.064 2.061 2.058 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 70.71 75.50 80.23 82.84 84.31 85.42 85.86 IMR - BOTH SEXES 27.1 12.7 4.3 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 52 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC COUNTRY DEPARTMENT III Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 169193 183907 198962 213544 227302 240694 253790 266222 277951 288961 MALES 0-4 12480 11134 11332 11303 11085 11141 11205 11151 11077 11025 5-9 11385 12099 10853 11106 11132 10940 11018 11104 11072 11020 10-14 9923 11271 11994 10773 11038 11072 10889 10974 11067 11043 15-19 8028 9809 11155 11885 10688 10961 11004 10831 10926 11028 20-24 7728 7892 9658 11000 11738 10570 10855 10913 10756 10865 25-29 6869 7569 7742 9492 10833 11581 10446 10747 10823 10687 30-34 6085 6714 7413 7596 9335 10676 11436 10335 10653 10751 35-39 4210 5926 6552 7250 7448 9175 10517 11291 10226 10565 40-44 .985 4071 5747 6371 7069 7281 8995 10338 11129 10106 45-49 3579 3814 3906 5532 6153 6850 7078 8772 10115 10923 50-54 2616 3369 3601 3700 5261 5875 6566 6811 8476 9812 55-59 2628 2400 3101 3328 3434 4908 5508 6187 6449 8065 60-64 1682 2317 2125 2759 2976 3090 4446 5021 5676 5954 65-69 1290 1396 1933 1783 2330 2536 2656 3855 4391 5005 70-74 841 976 1063 1483 1378 1823 2007 2125 3120 3593 75+ 830 899 1025 1148 1494 1606 1990 2332 2616 3513 TOTAL 84162 91657 99201 106508 113393 120084 126614 132786 138572 143955 FEMALES 0-4 11952 10510 10961 10918 10694 10741 10797 10738 10660 10603 5-9 10826 11619 10273 10771 10781 10580 10648 10723 10684 10626 10-14 9734 10722 11525 10205 10715 10733 10541 10617 10699 10669 15-19 8842 9628 10620 11432 10137 10655 10683 10502 10588 10681 20-24 8472 8711 9499 10494 11317 10049 10578 10623 10458 10559 25-29 6906 8320 8567 9357 10359 11193 9957 10501 10566 10422 30-34 5694 6765 8163 8419 9217 10227 11074 9872 10434 10520 35-39 4278 5560 6617 8002 8272 9078 10097 10958 9791 10373 40-44 4107 4159 5417 6461 7834 8119 8932 9961 10838 9708 45-49 3636 3970 4027 5257 6287 7645 7945 8766 9803 10697 50-54 2798 3476 3803 3866 5063 6076 7415 7732 8560 9605 55-59 2599 2628 3272 3591 3663 4820 5811 7123 7461 8297 60-64 1762 2369 2403 3004 3313 3400 4503 5464 6740 7102 65-69 1401 1529 2065 2105 2649 2948 3051 4079 4992 6212 70-74 983 1121 1230 1672 1719 2190 2468 2585 3499 4335 75+ 1042 1160 1319 1481 1889 2155 2674 3193 3606 4598 TOTAL 85032 92250 99761 107036 113910 120610 127176 133437 139379 145007 BIRTH RATE 27.1 25.4 23.2 21.0 19.7 18.6 17.5 16.5 15.6 DEATH RATE 10.3 9.6 8.9 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.68 1.58 1.42 1.25 1.15 1.06 .96 .86 .78 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.67 1.57 1.41 1.25 1.14 1.06 .96 .86 .78 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.359 2.974 2.659 2.376 2.265 2.224 2.183 2.149 2.119 NRR 1.353 1.248 1.14 1.048 1.012 1.008 1.004 1.001 1.001 eO) - BOTH SEXES 58.25 59.96 61.85 63.84 65.39 66.99 68.66 70.40 72.21 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 51.79 52.40 53.12 53.98 54.97 56.00 57.08 58.21 59.39 IMR - BOTH SEXES 81.2 70.9 60.4 50.6 44.7 39.0 33.2 27.5 21.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1140 .0979 .0815 .0658 .0580 .0501 .0421 .0342 .0262 DEP. RATIO 75.3 68.0 61.2 53.9 51.1 48.4 46.0 45.7 45.9 46.9 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 53 Sury Projection EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC COUNTRY DEPARTMENT III AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 169193 213544 277951 322736 343480 356592 365635 370128 MALES 0-4 12480 11303 11077 11147 11152 11134 11130 11128 5-9 11385 11106 11072 11121 11138 11123 11121 11120 10-14 9923 10 m 11067 11075 11124 11119 11119 11118 15-19 8028 11885 10926 10991 11099 11111 11112 11112 20-24 m 8 11000 10756 10881 11065 11090 11091 11093 25-29 6869 9492 10823 10856 11017 11055 11059 11062 30-34 6085 7596 10653 10834 10955 11012 11023 11029 35-39 4210 7250 10226 10776 10859 10955 10984 10996 40-44 3985 6371 11129 10566 10715 10880 10932 10951 45-49 3579 5532 10115 10295 10526 10783 10858 10882 50-54 2616 3700 8476 10158 10352 10620 10726 10763 55-59 2628 3328 6449 9657 10074 10362 10520 10582 60-64 1682 2759 5676 8757 9621 9974 10222 10324 65-69 1290 1783 4391 8691 8836 9393 9783 9938 70-74 841 1483 3120 6804 7741 8555 9133 9350 75+ 830 1148 2616 7654 13474 16961 19675 21041 TOTAL 84162 106508 138572 160264 169750 176127 180487 182488 FEMALES 0-4 11952 10918 10660 10642 10628 10613 10610 10608 5-9 10826 10771 10684 10643 10618 10605 10603 10602 10-14 9734 10205 10699 10626 10605 10602 10603 10602 15-19 8842 11432 10588 10583 10589 10600 10601 10601 20-24 8472 10494 10458 10530 10578 10597 10597 10598 25-29 6906 9357 10566 10553 10583 10591 10590 10591 30-34 5694 8419 10434 10573 10575 10574 10579 10583 35-39 4278 8002 9791 10552 10536 10545 10563 10573 40-44 4107 6461 10838 10387 10460 10508 10545 10559 45-49 3636 5257 9803 10179 10357 10465 10520 10537 50-54 2798 3866 8560 10153 10296 10414 10476 10502 55-59 2599 3591 7461 9825 10185 10322 10403 10447 60-64 1762 3004 6740 8929 9968 10161 10294 10370 65-69 1401 2105 4992 9381 9511 9904 10138 10261 70-74 983 1672 3499 7748 8835 9507 9903 10086 75+ 1042 1481 3606 11169 19405 24457 28124 30118 TOTAL 85032 107036 139379 162472 173730 180465 185148 187640 BIRTH RATE 25.1 18.5 14.6 13.1 12.5 12.1 11.8 DEATH RATE 9.6 8.1 8.7 10.6 11.0 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.55 1.05 .60 .25 .15 .10 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.968 2.2j7 2.102 2.074 2.066 2.060 2.059 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 60.11 67.23 74.52 79.18 82.06 84.29 85.15 INR - BOTH SEXES 70.8 39.0 15.4 5.1 3.5 2.4 2.2 54 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS EAST ASIA AND PACIC NONBORROWERS PopuLation Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 0lO 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 188324 196206 203316 209760 215584 220082 223221 225341 226858 227805 MALES 0-4 7038 6691 6639 6666 6735 6637 6516 6475 6535 6645 5-9 7502 7059 6707 6648 6671 6734 6632 6507 6467 6528 10-14 8655 7520 7074 6718 6655 6674 6733 6628 6504 6465 15-19 8299 8662 7527 7078 6719 6652 6667 6724 6620 6498 20-24 7567 8312 8668 7531 7QO7 6711 6637 6647 6705 6603 25-29 7203 7594 8323 8667 7527 7064 6690 6609 6620 6679 30-34 7355 7220 7600 8317 8653 7510 7041 6663 6583 6595 35-39 7669 7351 7211 7583 8292 8622 7480 7009 6633 6556 40-44 6326 7630 7312 7170 7539 8238 8565 7431 6965 6594 45-49 5680 6252 7543 7231 7093 7459 8152 8480 7362 6904 50-54 5336 5552 6121 7395 7095 6961 7325 8011 8344 7251 55-59 4741 5141 5364 5930 7180 6893 6767 7132 7811 8152 60-64 3433 4468 4873 5108 5671 6883 6615 6504 6874 7546 65-69 2562 3123 4105 4516 4766 5311 6470 6231 6142 6520 70-74 2062 2198 2721 3632 4046 4291 4812 5897 5702 5645 75+ 2317 2870 3340 4086 5369 6568 7508 8531 10163 11122 TOTAL 93744 97644 101130 104275 107085 109208 110611 111481 112031 112306 FEMALES 0-4 6685 6387 6335 6359 6 .1 6326 6209 6169 6225 6328 5-9 7104 6711 6408 6349 6368 6425 6324 6204 6163 6220 10-14 8211 7127 6730 6422 6359 6373 6426 6R22 6202 6163 15-19 7887 8234 7147 6745 6432 6364 6373 6422 6319 6200 20-24 7271 7932 8272 7174 6764 6442 6364 6366 6416 6315 25-29 6972 7324 7975 8301 7195 6M 644l 6355 6358 6409 30-34 7115 7006 7352 7991 8309 7197 6768 6430 6345 6349 35-39 7439 7125 7014 7353 7987 8300 7186 6754 6417 034 40-44 6206 7421 7108 6996 7334 7964 8275 7164 6734 640. 45-49 5638 6166 7376 7068 6958 7295 7923 8236 7133 6708 50-54 5338 5571 6101 7305 7004 6897 7235 7862 8178 7087 55-59 4860 5238 5478 6011 7208 6914 6812 7153 7779 8102 60-64 4103 4717 5105 5356 5894 7077 6793 6700 7046 7676 65-69 3263 3911 4527 4928 5195 5731 6897 6630 6550 6907 70-74 2734 3006 364 4261 4682 4954 5489 6632 6391 6336 75+ 3756 4687 5616 6867 8388 9842 11094 12463 14570 15965 TOTAL 94580 98563 102186 105485 108498 110874 112610 113860 114827 115499 BIRTH RATE 13.7 13.1 12.7 12.5 12.0 11.6 11.3 11.3 11.5 DEATH RATE 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.3 8.1 8.8 9.5 10.0 10.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. .74 .65 .58 .51 .39 .27 .19 .13 .08 NET MIGRATION RATE .9 .7 .5 .3 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .82 .71 .62 .55 .41 .28 .19 .13 .08 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.814 1.721 1.706 1.768 1.829 1.889 1.945 1.997 2.045 NRR .886 .829 .822 .849 .880 .911 .Q40 .966 .990 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.51 77.58 78.63 79.60 80.15 80.73 81.33 81.96 82.62 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 62.52 63.49 64.44 65.33 65.82 66.33 66.87 67.43 68.01 IMR - BOTH SEXES 11.2 10.0 8.5 7.2 6.4 5.6 4.8 4.0 3.2 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0140 .0125 .0107 .0092 .0082 .0073 .0064 .0054 .0045 DEP. RATIO 48.9 45.4 45.8 47.4 49.8 52.6 57.1 60.2 62.9 66.3 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 55 Surmry Projection for 25-Year Periods EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC NONBORROWERS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 188324 209760 226858 224831 218959 219638 220967 221685 MALES 0-4 7038 6666 6535 6551 6573 6582 6583 6582 5-9 7502 6648 6467 6545 6579 6582 6579 6577 10-14 8655 6718 6504 6586 6594 6583 6577 '576 15-19 8299 7078 6620 6643 6592 6573 6571 6572 20-24 7567 7531 6705 6617 6556 6553 6559 6562 25-29 7203 8667 6620 6484 6508 6533 6545 6547 30-34 7355 8317 6583 6400 6487 6526 6532 6531 35-39 7669 7583 6633 6414 6507 6523 6516 6513 40-44 6326 7170 6965 6499 6538 6498 6487 6487 45-49 5680 7231 7362 6545 6481 6435 6441 6450 50-54 5336 7395 8344 6396 6295 6338 6374 6391 55-59 4741 5930 7811 6248 6120 6233 6288 6302 60-64 3433 5108 6874 6130 5994 6124 6165 6171 65-69 2562 4516 6142 6179 5858 5955 5957 5964 70-74 2062 3632 5702 6113 5564 5598 5614 5646 75+ 2317 4086 10163 14005 12425 12528 13021 13284 TOTAL 93744 104275 112031 110356 107672 108165 108808 109157 FEMALES 0-4 6685 6359 6225 6239 6259 6267 6269 6268 5-9 7104 6349 6163 6235 6266 6269 6267 6265 10-14 8211 6422 6202 6274 6281 6270 6265 6264 15-19 7887 6745 6319 6331 6282 6264 6262 6263 20-24 7271 7174 6416 6318 6258 6254 6259 6262 25-29 6972 8301 6358 6208 6226 6249 6259 6261 30-34 7115 7991 6345 6144 6221 6255 6260 6258 35-39 7439 7353 6417 6174 6254 6266 6257 6253 40-44 6206 6996 6734 6279 6302 6260 6246 6245 45-49 5638 7068 7133 6359 6277 6226 6228 6235 50-54 5338 7305 8178 6273 6148 6179 6210 6224 55-59 4860 6011 7779 6219 6055 6151 6197 6208 60-64 4103 5356 7046 6231 6042 6150 6180 6180 65-69 3263 4928 6550 6447 6082 6148 6134 6133 70-74 2734 4261 6391 6675 6053 6042 6034 6054 75+ 3756 6867 14570 20068 18280 18221 18832 19156 TOTAL 94580 105485 114827 114475 111287 111473 112159 112529 BIRTH RATE 13.2 11.7 11.4 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 6.7 8.8 11.8 12.7 11.6 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .7 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .72 .31 -.04 -.11 .01 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.739 1.881 2.059 2.061 2.059 2.058 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 77.60 80.77 83.29 84.64 85.40 85.98 86.21 IMR - BOTH SEXES 9.9 5.6 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 56 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMEN ASEAN Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 289145 317100 344327 370569 395856 420288 444051 466872 488495 508786 MALES 0-4 21100 19851 19611 19481 19273 19261 19348 19382 19312 19214 5-9 19092 20635 19502 19324 19262 19086 19103 19217 19279 19238 10-14 17178 18935 20487 19380 19224 19174 19011 19040 19166 19240 15-19 14827 17003 18760 20318 19244 19104 19069 18923 18967 19108 20-24 13605 14599 16762 18510 20085 19049 18934 18924 18802 18870 25-29 11919 13348 14346 16486 18246 19835 18844 18760 18780 18691 30-34 10332 11672 13095 14091 16235 18002 19607 18662 18612 18665 35-39 7541 10083 11414 12828 13844 15982 17758 19382 18487 18474 40-44 6638 7313 9801 11120 12539 13567 15699 17484 19130 18292 45-49 5898 6370 7040 9459 10774 12185 13225 15345 17138 18808 50-54 4443 5568 6033 60n3 9029 10324 11721 12770 14869 16665 55-59 4112 4089 5144 5597 6243 8462 9724 11096 12150 14212 60-64 2776 3639 3637 4598 5033 5657 7715 8929 10258 11312 65-69 2120 2315 3052 3072 3913 4324 4912 6757 7896 9157 70-74 1438 1615 1776 2359 2400 3097 3467 3997 5561 6584 75+ 1395 1543 1743 1961 2484 2813 3517 4199 5009 6689 TOTAL 144414 158579 172202 185278 197827 209922 221653 232865 243416 253217 FEMALES 0-4 20142 18894 18914 18767 18542 18518 18588 18607 18527 18420 5-9 18182 19746 18609 18681 18595 18399 18400 18495 18538 18482 10-14 16648 18045 19623 18513 18605 18530 18346 18357 18463 18517 15-19 15380 16495 17903 19492 18416 18521 18461 18291 18317 18436 20-24 14420 1517' 16301 17715 19327 18286 18411 18374 18229 18277 25-29 12145 14182 14951 16084 17521 19150 18150 18301 18294 18178 30-34 9969 11917 13945 14729 15887 17336 18983 18026 18207 18230 35-39 7528 9756 11690 13708 14522 15693 17156 18822 17908 18120 40-44 6713 7340 9536 11456 13472 14304 15487 16964 18651 17784 45-49 5990 6505 7133 9293 11200 13201 14050 15248 16739 '8447 50-54 4713 5743 6255 6885 9002 10883 12862 13733 14946 16454 55-59 4163 4443 5434 5942 6575 8632 10478 12431 13329 14562 60-64 2951 3814 4092 5031 5535 6169 8145 9946 11865 12799 65-69 2333 2578 3352 3626 4498 4991 5624 7490 9228 11098 70-74 1666 1882 2098 2754 3019 3796 4268 4888 6596 8235 75+ 1788 2007 2288 2617 3312 3957 4988 6032 7245 9528 TOTAL 144731 158521 172124 185291 198029 210366 222398 234007 245079 255569 BIRTH RATE 27.5 24.8 22.6 20.6 19.2 18.1 17.2 16.2 15.4 DEATH RATE 8.9 8.2 7.7 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.86 1.66 1.49 1.34 1.21 1.11 1.01 .91 .81 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.2 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.85 1.65 1.47 1.32 1.20 1.10 1.00 .91 .81 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.358 2.910 2.611 2.365 2.228 2.168 2.140 2.120 2.101 NRR 1.424 1.269 1.162 1.072 1.020 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 61.20 62.93 64.77 66.68 68.08 69.53 71.04 72.62 74.28 e(iS) - BOTH SEXES 52.59 53.41 54.36 55.44 56.43 57.46 58.54 59.68 60.87 IMR - BOTH SEXES 61.2 53.4 45.1 37.2 32.9 28.6 24.2 19.8 15.5 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0836 .0719 .0595 .0478 .0421 .0363 .0305 .0246 .0188 DEP. RATIO 74.1 67.7 61.4 54.4 50.7 47.8 45.8 45.7 46.4 47.7 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 57 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods ASEAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 289145 370569 488495 569977 605401 624860 637841 644271 MALES 0-4 21100 19481 19312 19350 19339 19315 19311 19309 5-9 19092 19324 19279 19299 19313 19298 19296 19295 10-14 17178 19380 19166 19225 19294 19295 19295 19293 15-19 14827 20318 18967 19123 19269 19284 19283 19282 20-24 13605 18510 18802 19009 19226 19249 19246 19249 25-29 11919 16486 18780 18985 19149 19185 19189 19196 30-34 10332 14091 18612 18908 19039 19108 19129 19141 35-39 7541 12828 18487 18707 18883 19021 19068 19086 40-44 6638 11120 19130 18394 18681 18911 18986 19011 45-49 5898 9459 17138 18068 18438 18764 18861 18893 50-54 4443 6693 14869 17m70 18174 18499 18636 18690 55-59 4112 5597 12150 17032 17690 18069 18289 18384 60-64 2776 4598 10258 16089 168TS 17435 17796 17950 65-69 2120 30n 7896 15316 15658 16517 17075 17301 70-74 1438 2359 5561 11994 14001 15195 15992 16303 75+ 1395 1961 5009 15301 25841 31183 35096 37059 TOTAL 144414 185278 243416 282532 298871 308328 314548 317442 FEMALES 0-4 20142 18767 18527 18463 18433 18413 18409 18407 5-9 18182 18681 18538 18445 18412 18400 18400 18398 10-14 16648 18513 18463 18406 18396 18398 18399 18398 15-19 15380 19492 18317 18355 18384 18397 18397 18396 20-24 14420 17715 18229 18319 18378 18393 18388 18389 25-29 12145 16084 18294 18377 18379 18378 18376 18379 30-34 9969 14729 18207 18377 18346 18348 18358 18367 35-39 7528 13708 17908 18251 18272 18306 18338 18352 40-44 6713 11456 18651 18029 18170 18260 18312 18330 45-49 5990 9293 16739 17825 18059 18204 18272 18294 50-54 4713 6885 14946 17694 17990 18120 18198 18235 55-59 4163 5942 13329 17312 17795 17960 18080 18148 60-64 2951 5031 11865 16593 17383 17702 17913 18028 65-69 2333 3626 9228 16531 16736 17327 17683 17856 70-74 1666 2754 6596 13766 15837 16770 17324 17576 75+ 1788 2617 7245 22702 37561 45155 50443 53275 TOTAL 144731 185291 245079 287445 306530 316531 323293 326829 BIRTH RATE 24.8 18.2 14.3 12.8 12.3 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.2 7.1 8.2 10.4 11.0 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 .0 .0 .C .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.65 1.11 .62 .24 .13 .08 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.929 2.201 2.089 2.070 2.064 2.059 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 63.06 69.75 76.34 80.41 82.82 84.67 85.39 INR - BOTH SEXES 53.3 28.6 11.2 4.3 3.1 2.3 2.1 SOUTH ASIA REGION 60 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENITS SOUTH ASA Population Projection (thousards) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL H.F 1008675 1126319 1241523 1353163 1465436 1575059 1678778 1780251 1878889 1972041 MALES 0-4 77565 82425 82384 81256 82519 82769 81475 82195 82882 82569 5-9 65765 74926 7"976 80235 79492 80960 81445 80407 81357 82262 10-14 61091 65070 74211 79312 79654 78975 80494 81042 80075 81089 15-19 54684 60475 64443 73564 78694 79085 78464 80030 80635 79732 20-24 47846 53918 59650 63632 72722 77883 78341 77798 79426 80104 25-29 41532 47062 53049 58776 62769 71834 77036 77572 77120 78821 30-34 34416 40814 46267 52237 57947 61957 71003 76249 76865 76505 35-39 27788 33742 40040 45466 51402 57094 61120 70141 75429 76128 40-44 23578 27104 32947 39165 44544 50432 56096 60132 69112 74436 45-49 20864 22788 26230 31948 38044 43346 49160 54772 58808 67710 50-54 18307 19849 21712 25042 30569 36485 41668 47365 52890 56911 55-59 15236 16989 18454 20228 23396 28654 34307 39303 44813 50191 60-64 11926 13627 15230 16585 18242 21189 26059 31326 36031 41242 65-69 8860 10076 11551 12951 14168 15672 18309 22642 27365 31644 70-74 6067 6827 7797 8979 10131 11174 12462 14681 18299 22286 75+ 5271 6378 7386 8518 9872 11435 13044 14874 17540 21725 TOTAL 520796 582070 641328 697892 754163 808944 860482 910529 958647 1003355 FEMALES 0-4 73399 78633 78841 78309 797,3 79849 78456 79006 79525 79081 5-9 61228 70626 76126 76857 76794 78408 78708 77535 78284 79000 10-14 56586 60469 69868 75474 76326 76326 77995 78360 m62 78079 15-19 50484 55845 59770 69192 74870 75784 75857 77592 78035 77021 20-24 44180 49542 54933 58932 68373 74104 75112 75293 77127 77685 25-29 38173 43144 48533 53972 58045 67482 73287 74415 74730 76693 30-34 31626 37166 42154 47574 53055 57175 66619 72508 73769 74232 35-39 26177 30694 36206 41208 46649 52139 56311 65768 71751 73155 40-44 22765 25313 29795 35267 40270 45694 51190 55415 64880 70958 45-49 20203 21895 24441 28868 34281 39241 44635 50124 54391 63844 50-54 17512 19221 20918 23444 27793 33097 37993 43335 48798 53097 55-59 14527 16327 18020 19713 22208 26422 31581 36387 41655 47075 60-64 11387 13073 14812 16470 18148 20561 24595 29557 34238 39402 65-69 8577 9647 11206 12835 14420 16028 18322 22099 26780 31279 70-74 5908 6580 7521 8870 10308 11739 13226 15326 18723 22979 75. 5149 6073 7050 8285 9980 12064 14410 17002 20293 25106 TOTAL 487879 544249 600194 655270 711272 766114 818296 869722 920242 968686 BIRTH RATE 34.2 30.5 27.2 25.1 23.1 21.0 19.7 18.6 17.4 DEATH RATE 11.9 10.8 9.8 9.0 8.6 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.22 1.97 1.73 1.60 1.45 1.28 1.18 1.08 .97 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.21 1.95 1.72 1.59 1.44 1.28 1.17 1.08 .97 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.555 4.030 3.504 3.146 2.814 2.522 2.383 2.300 2.221 NRR 1.765 1.604 l.44l 1.332 1.212 1.104 1.062 1.043 1.025 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 56.71 58.43 60.29 62.26 63.77 65.33 66.96 68.65 70.41 e15) - BOTH SEXES 51.81 52.57 53.31 54.11 54.87 55.67 56.50 57.36 58.26 INR - BOTH SEXES 102.2 93.2 82.8 72.0 63.9 55.7 47.4 38.9 30.5 qCS) - BOTH SEXES .1399 .1266 .1110 .0949 .0841 .0731 .0617 .0501 .0384 DEP. RATIO 76.0 73.7 70.6 64.8 58.9 54.5 51.2 49.0 47.9 47.7 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 61 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods SOUTH ASIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1008675 1353163 1878889 2280508 2501151 2615577 2688901 2725907 MALES 0-4 77565 81256 82882 82343 82377 82244 82212 82183 5-9 65765 80235 81357 82215 82315 82201 82154 82124 10-14 61091 79312 80075 82066 82297 82184 82135 82112 15-19 54684 73564 80635 81680 82126 82091 82066 82062 20-24 47846 63632 79426 81190 81694 81875 81887 81922 25-29 41532 58776 77120 80832 81228 81585 81669 81700 30-34 34416 52237 76865 79315 80856 81311 81431 81463 35-39 27788 45466 75429 77633 80316 80973 81150 81207 40-44 23578 39165 69112 77587 79452 80411 80728 80851 45-49 20864 31948 58808 75586 78326 79502 80107 80313 50-54 18307 25042 52890 71923 76808 78147 79086 79444 55-59 15236 20228 44813 69175 73399 76260 77570 78107 60-64 11926 16585 36031 64052 68846 73440 75378 76169 65-69 8860 12951 27365 53344 64285 69180 72044 73231 70-74 6067 8979 18299 38939 56134 63010 66952 68755 75+ 5271 8518 17540 49474 94829 123289 144037 154367 TOTAL 520796 697892 958647 1147356 1245287 1297704 1330604 1346010 FEMALES 0-4 73399 78309 79525 78486 78446 78344 78325 78304 5-9 61228 76857 78284 78483 78398 78314 78284 78263 10-14 56586 75474 77262 78465 78385 78299 78270 78256 15-19 50484 69192 78035 78284 78276 78248 78240 78243 20-24 44180 58932 77127 78106 78015 78167 78184 78217 25-29 38173 53972 74730 78133 77879 78084 78151 78175 30-34 31626 47574 73769 76987 77818 77995 78084 78115 35-39 26177 41208 71751 75631 77588 77839 77968 78025 40-44 22765 35267 64880 75884 77104 77532 77780 77891 45-49 20203 28868 54391 74309 76476 76990 77508 77693 50-54 17512 2344 48798 70981 75764 76374 771C6 77424 55-59 14527 19713 41655 68515 73527 75572 76534 76999 60-64 11387 16470 34238 64321 70556 74272 75690 76371 65-69 8577 12835 26780 54788 68199 72198 74375 75428 70-74 5908 8870 18723 41436 62657 68987 72199 73921 75+ 5149 8285 20293 60343 126778 170658 201599 218572 TOTAL 487879 655270 920242 1133152 1255864 1317873 1358296 1379897 BIRTH RATE 30.4 21.3 15.8 13.5 12.6 12.1 11.9 DEATH RATE 10.8 8.3 8.1 9.8 10.8 11.0 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.V., 1.31 .77 .37 .18 .11 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.990 2.602 2.162 2.087 2.072 2.062 2.060 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 58.59 65.60 72.95 78.03 81.25 83.85 84.86 INR - BOTH SEXES 92.8 55.8 22.1 8.0 4.7 2.6 2.3 62 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS SOUTH ASI COUNTRY DEPARTMENT I Population Projectfon (thousands) AGE GROUIP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 113424 127006 140685 153862 167417 180499 192483 204007 215114 225875 MALES 0-4 10183 9816 10067 9997 10349 10267 9858 9778 9758 9819 5-9 8681 9476 9211 9536 9559 9964 9952 9619 9602 9650 10-14 7374 8477 9275 9039 9384 9429 9850 9861 9553 9558 15-19 6182 7243 8334 9128 8908 9265 9325 9758 9785 9495 20-24 5132 6049 7088 8158 8944 8748 9120 9200 9648 9695 25-29 4357 5004 5896 6910 7959 8751 8584 8973 9076 9543 30-34 3236 4242 4869 5739 6731 7776 8576 8436 8844 8969 35-39 2702 3142 4117 4728 5576 6560 7601 8407 8293 8718 40-44 2307 2611 3035 3978 4571 5408 6381 7415 8224 8136 45-49 1970 2212 2502 2910 3816 4397 5217 6172 7191 7997 50-54 1686 1864 2092 2367 2755 3622 4184 4975 5900 6890 55-59 1373 1565 1729 1941 2197 2562 3374 3904 4651 5525 60-64 1046 1235 1407 1554 1746 1979 2310 3045 3526 4205 65-69 766 893 1054 1200 1328 1492 1692 1976 2606 3020 70-74 583 602 701 828 943 1044 1173 1330 1554 2050 75+ 519 653 719 810 943 1085 1217 1364 1539 1772 TOTAL 58100 65084 72096 78822 85710 92349 98413 104212 109750 115042 FEMALES 0-4 9705 9509 9743 9675 10017 9906 9482 9376 9329 9359 5-9 8166 9050 8946 9262 9292 9674 9620 9259 9204 9212 10-14 7112 7965 8850 8776 9116 9167 9564 9532 9194 9159 15-19 5886 6958 7804 8687 8633 8987 9056 9469 9457 9141 20-24 4936 5731 6783 7618 8497 8467 8839 8931 9364 9378 25-29 4205 4781 5557 6586 7412 8295 8294 8687 8807 9265 30-34 3182 4054 4615 5373 6382 7210 8101 8130 8547 8698 35-39 2656 3053 3896 4442 5184 6184 7015 7915 7976 8420 40-44 2263 2536 2919 3732 4265 4999 5990 6826 77s 7829 45-49 1897 2149 2412 2782 3564 4092 4816 5795 6632 7547 50-54 1546 1784 2025 2277 2632 3387 3904 4614 5575 6406 55-59 1230 1426 1650 1877 2116 2458 3177 3679 4368 5302 60-64 924 1097 1276 1481 1691 1917 2240 2912 3391 4049 65-69 676 778 928 1084 1264 1454 1662 I1V., 2564 3008 70-74 478 520 602 721 848 999 1161 1341 1594 2109 75+ 465 531 584 667 796 956 1149 1372 1626 1953 TOTAL 55324 61922 68590 75040 81708 88151 94071 99795 105364 110833 BIRTH RATE 37.5 34.0 30.2 28.1 25.5 22.5 20.8 19.4 18.3 DEATH RATE 14.7 13.4 12.1 11.1 10.3 9.6 9.1 8.8 8.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.28 2.06 1.81 1.70 1.51 1.29 1.17 1.06 .98 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.2 -.1 -.. -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.26 2.05 1.79 1.69 1.50 1.29 1.16 1.06 .98 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.182 4.46l 3.730 3.319 2.945 2.616 2.452 2.338 2.264 NRR 1.807 1.614 1.400 1.295 1.181 1.076 1.035 1.010 1.002 etO) - BOTH SEXES 50.76 52.19 53.92 55.88 57.69 59.56 61.51 63.52 65.61 e0s) - BOTH SEXES 49.73 49.93 50.18 50.58 51.47 52.39 53.34 54.32 55.32 IMR - BOTH SEXES 112.9 104.0 92.8 80.8 73.8 66.9 59.9 53.0 46.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1838 .1670 .1465 .1252 .1122 .0992 .0860 .0727 .0593 DEP. RATIO 93.2 84.8 75.8 66.8 61.6 56.9 52.6 48.6 46.3 45.5 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 63 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods SOUTH ASIA COUNTRY DEPARIMENT I AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 113424 153862 215114 261048 286112 302000 312860 318541 MALES 0-4 10183 9997 9758 9675 9690 9678 9672 9665 5-9 8681 9536 9602 9689 9692 9674 9664 9658 10-14 7374 9039 9553 9734 9687 9665 9659 9656 15-19 6182 9128 9785 9730 9640 9642 9650 9651 20-24 5132 8158 9648 9592 9546 9609 9629 9635 25-29 4357 6910 9076 9434 9508 9578 9606 9609 30-34 3236 5739 8844 9295 9501 9556 9576 9579 35-39 2702 4728 8293 9178 9501 9513 9534 9544 40-44 2307 3978 8224 9302 9435 9416 9467 9498 45-49 1970 2910 7191 9035 9214 9263 9382 9433 50-54 1686 2367 5900 8280 8898 9106 9258 9329 55-59 1373 1941 4651 7708 8483 8892 9076 9162 60-64 1046 1554 3526 6707 7937 8580 8797 8914 65-69 766 1200 2606 5907 7379 8053 8355 8539 70-74 583 828 1554 4277 6236 7174 7685 7982 75+ 519 810 1539 4343 8967 13081 16142 17628 TOTAL 58100 78822 109750 131885 143313 150481 155153 157480 FEMALES 0-4 9705 9675 9329 9220 9234 9222 9217 9213 5-9 8166 9262 9204 9236 9241 9220 9211 9207 10-14 7112 8776 9194 9281 9241 9214 9207 9206 15-19 5886 8687 9457 9283 9208 9198 9202 9204 20-24 4936 7618 9364 9165 9142 9184 9196 9202 25-29 4205 6586 8807 9051 9133 9182 9195 9197 30-34 3182 5373 8547 8955 9142 9182 9187 9188 35-39 2656 4442 7976 8876 9156 9162 9165 9173 40-44 2263 3732 7735 9033 9110 9099 9130 9153 45-49 1897 2782 6632 8822 8922 8990 9088 9127 50-54 1546 2277 5575 8133 8694 8907 9038 9093 55-59 1230 1877 4368 7654 8422 8803 8968 9035 60-64 924 1481 3391 6798 8076 8651 8848 8942 65-69 676 1084 2564 6068 7782 8358 8640 8802 70-74 478 721 1594 4505 6911 7782 8298 8590 75+ 465 667 1626 5081 11386 17362 22117 24729 TOTAL 55324 75040 105364 129163 142799 151518 157707 161061 BIRTH RATE 33.6 23.0 16.6 14.0 12.9 12.3 12.0 DEATH RATE 13.3 9.7 8.9 10.3 10.8 10.9 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.03 1.34 .77 .37 .22 .14 .07 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.383 2.701 2.199 2.101 2.078 2.064 2.061 etO) - BOTH SEXES 52.40 59.88 68.75 74.99 79.33 82.89 84.26 IMR - BOTH SEXES 103.3 67.3 33.9 13.0 6.8 2.9 2.5 64 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMEN1 SOUTH ASIA COUNTRY DEPARTMENT Populatfon Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 765147 849515 929921 1006114 1061237 115336? 1219866 1284486 1347589 1407236 MALES 0-4 55988 59789 58476 56580 56593 56223 54624 55058 55866 55936 5-9 47525 54590 S8S10 57413 55766 s5596 55645 54166 54696 55581 10-14 45388 47162 54218 58165 57124 55S13 55671 55446 53999 54554 15-19 41073 45014 46796 53842 S7801 S679 55229 55416 55222 53811 20-24 36411 40573 44483 46305 53331 5730 S6352 54837 55067 54918 25-29 31864 35892 40002 4932 457 52 56773 55887 54437 54718 30-34 26744 31387 35364 39483 43417 45296 52260 56283 55461 54077 35-39 21867 26281 30860 34834 3694? 4287S 44780 51741 55763 55007 40-44 18663 21378 25718 30258 34212 38301 42217 44148 51075 55114 45-49 16623 18075 20731 24990 29459 33364 37413 41306 43266 50135 50-54 14705 15837 17249 19625 23954 2606 32135 36122 39976 41972 55-59 12269 13655 14737 16067 18543 22483 26660 30371 34256 38041 60-64 9678 10974 12244 13250 14517 16811 20477 24393 27914 31628 65-69 7200 8172 9298 10412 11323 12485 14550 17834 21377 24616 70-74 4882 5536 6313 7217 8138 8934 9942 11693 14463 17494 75+ 4205 5086 5920 6840 7895 9149 10433 11904 14049 17362 TOTAL 395083 439402 480922 519431 556808 S92527 625181 656604 686888 714964 FEMALES 0-4 52944 56679 55672 54410 S5659 54239 52637 52994 53711 53714 5-9 44373 51318 55262 54677 S3743 54097 S3784 52291 52738 53532 10-14 41889 43945 50904 54928 S4454 53535 53919 53639 52180 52658 15-19 37789 41427 43540 SO536 5616 54166 S3312 53736 53497 52082 20-24 33426 37156 40853 43056 50084 54196 53615 53031 53518 53346 25-29 29058 32705 36495 40267 42555 49564 53741 53447 52752 53321 30-34 24343 28350 32043 35894 392 420 60 49096 53307 53108 52510 35-39 20559 23678 27699 31433 35326 3919 41S60 48606 52876 52779 40-44 18008 19926 23052 27075 30833 34726 38591 41021 48075 52404 45-49 16174 17359 19292 22408 26414 30147 34029 37899 40374 47420 50-54 14162 15419 16629 18563 21650 25588 29282 33140 37007 39526 55-59 11740 13227 14493 15722 17648 20658 24S04 28143 31966 35824 60-64 9359 10577 12025 13289 14532 16403 19306 23027 26592 30369 65-69 7104 7928 9077 10448 11680 12887 14677 17428 20970 24428 70-74 4891 5437 6177 7192 8411 9539 10676 12330 14847 18111 75+ 4246 4982 5784 6786 8116 9836 11756 13841 16489 20249 TOTAL 370064 410113 448998 486683 524429 560840 594685 627882 660701 692272 BIRTH RATE 32.4 28.4 25.0 22.9 21.1 19.1 18.0 17.2 16.3 DEATH RATE 11.3 10.2 9.2 8.5 8.1 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.11 1.82 1.58 1.4S 1.30 1.12 1.03 .96 .87 MET GItRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.09 1.81 1.58 1.4 1.29 1.12 1.03 .96 .87 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.266 3.742 3.222 2.875 2.565 2.288 2.186 2.154 2.122 NRR 1.692 1.529 1.366 1.257 1.138 1.031 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 57.89 59.79 61.80 63.89 65.39 66.93 68.53 70.19 71.91 e0I5) - BOTH SEXES 52.24 53.13 54.01 S4.93 5S.71 6.52 57.37 58.24 59.16 INR - BOTH SEXES 98.2 87.7 76.4 65.0 56.5 48.0 39.4 30.9 22.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1273 .1120 .0956 .0792 .0608 .0583 .0478 .0373 .0268 DEP. RATIO 72.1 70.3 67.8 62.0 55.9 51.6 48.5 46.7 46.1 46.7 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 65 Suary Projection for 25-Year Periods SOUITH ASIA COUNTRY DEPARTMENT II AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL NMF 765147 1006114 1347589 1598877 1726071 1790301 1833918 1854762 MALES 0-4 55988 56580 55866 55714 55749 55708 55707 55697 5-9 47525 57413 54696 55402 55717 55697 55675 55658 10-14 45388 58163 53999 55327 55786 55721 55668 55648 15-19 41073 53842 55222 55400 55788 55678 55618 55611 20-24 36411 46305 55067 55229 55563 55515 55490 55515 25-29 31864 43932 54437 54775 55096 55283 55338 55371 30-34 26744 39483 55461 53539 54607 55102 55200 55222 35-39 21867 34834 55763 52604 54284 54963 55052 55059 40-44 18663 30258 51075 53439 54052 54712 54796 54821 45-49 16623 24990 43266 52756 53482 54181 54371 54456 50-54 14705 19825 39976 51165 52313 53156 53667 53877 55-59 12269 16087 34256 50389 49915 51728 52686 53018 60-64 9678 13250 27914 47921 47168 49972 51346 51779 65-69 7200 10412 21377 40097 45001 47553 49288 49865 70-74 4882 7217 14463 29335 40111 43711 46016 46897 75+ 4205 6840 14049 39059 71893 87558 100359 106457 TOTAL 395083 519431 686E88 802151 856525 886238 906277 914951 FEMALES 0-4 52944 54410 53711 53138 53105 53094 53101 53093 5-9 44373 54677 52738 52953 53076 53089 53081 53068 10-14 41889 54928 52180 53000 53137 53108 53078 53062 15-19 37789 50536 53497 53237 53165 53088 53054 53050 20-24 33426 43056 53518 53321 53045 53010 53008 53031 25-29 29058 40267 52752 53144 52835 52913 52978 53008 30-34 24343 35894 53108 52158 52606 52854 52952 52978 35-39 20559 31433 52876 51424 52537 52832 52911 52927 40-44 18008 27075 48075 52435 52603 52747 52807 52839 45-49 16174 22408 40374 52025 52425 52461 52614 52706 50-54 14162 18563 37007 50609 51815 51969 52326 52530 55-59 11740 15722 31966 49896 50191 51313 51978 52284 60-64 9359 13289 26592 48055 48494 50619 51545 51926 65-69 7104 10448 20970 41373 47879 49737 50855 51359 70-74 4891 7192 14847 31606 44940 48012 49f85 50406 75+ 4246 6786 16489 48352 97692 123217 141767 151544 TOTAL 370064 486683 660701 796726 869546 904063 927640 939811 BIRTH RATE 28.4 19.5 15.0 13.1 12.4 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 10.2 7.9 8.2 10.1 11.0 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.83 1.17 .68 .31 .15 .10 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.08 2.390 2.105 2.075 2.066 2.060 2.059 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 59.95 67.17 74.34 79.15 81.99 84.21 85.04 IMR - BOTH SEXES 87.7 48.2 15.7 5.0 3.4 2.4 2.2 66 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTIS SOUTH ASIU COUNTRY DEPARTMENT III Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 130104 149798 170917 193186 216782 241192 266428 291758 316186 338930 MALES 0-4 11394 12819 13840 14679 15577 16279 16992 17360 17258 16814 5-9 9560 10860 12255 13285 14165 15098 15849 16622 17058 17032 10-14 8329 9430 10719 12111 13146 14032 14973 15736 16523 16977 15-19 7429 8218 9312 10594 11Sq5 13020 13911 14857 15628 16426 20-24 6303 7295 8079 9169 10447 11835 12869 13762 14712 15490 25-29 5311 6166 7151 7934 9024 10295 11679 12712 13607 14560 30-34 4435 5186 6034 7014 7799 8884 10147 11530 12561 13460 35-39 3219 4319 5062 5904 6879 7659 8738 9993 11372 12402 40-44 2608 3116 4195 4928 5761 6724 7498 8569 9813 11186 45-49 2271 2502 2997 4048 4768 5584 6530 7294 8351 9578 50-54 1916 2148 2371 2849 3860 4557 5349 6268 7015 8049 55-59 1594 1769 1988 2201 2655 3609 4273 5028 5906 6625 60-64 1202 1418 1579 1780 1979 2399 3272 3888 4590 5409 65-69 894 1010 1198 1339 1517 1695 2067 2832 3382 4009 70-74 602 688 783 935 1049 1197 1346 1657 2281 2742 75+ 547 639 747 868 1034 1202 1394 1606 1952 2591 TOTAL 67613 77585 88310 99639 111646 124069 136888 149713 162008 173349 FEMALES 0-4 10750 12444 13426 14224 15077 15703 16337 16636 16484 16008 5-9 8688 10258 11918 12918 13759 14638 15303 15986 16342 16256 10-14 7586 8560 10114 11769 12776 13624 14511 15190 15888 16262 15-19 6810 7460 8426 9969 11622 12632 13489 14387 15081 15798 20-24 5818 6656 7297 8258 9792 11441 12459 13330 14245 14962 25-29 4910 5659 6481 7119 8079 9603 11252 12281 13171 14108 30-34 4101 4762 5495 6308 6946 7905 9422 11071 12113 13025 35-39 2962 3963 4612 5333 6138 6777 7736 9247 10899 11956 40-44 2494 2851 3824 4461 5172 5969 6609 7568 9071 10725 45-49 2133 2387 2736 3678 4303 5003 5791 6429 7386 8878 50-54 1804 2017 2264 2604 3510 4122 4807 5581 6216 7165 55-59 1558 1674 1878 2114 2443 3307 3900 4565 5321 5948 60-64 1104 1400 1511 1700 1926 2241 3048 3617 4255 4984 65-69 797 940 1200 1303 1476 1687 1983 2714 3246 3843 70-74 539 623 742 956 1049 1201 1388 1655 2282 2759 75' 439 560 682 831 1069 1272 1505 1789 2178 2903 TOTAL 62491 72213 82606 93547 105136 117124 129540 142045 154178 165581 BIRTH RATE 41.6 39.0 36.0 33.5 30.9 28.7 26.4 23.8 21.2 DEATH RATE 13.1 1.3 11.3 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.1 7.6 7.3 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.85 2.67 2.47 2.32 2.15 2.00 1.82 1.61 1.39 NET MIGRATION RATE -.4 -.3 -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 .O GROWTH RATE 2.82 2.64 2.45 2.30 2.13 1.99 1.82 1.61 1.39 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.796 5.331 4.902 4.479 4.007 3.601 3.231 2.892 2.581 NRR 2.158 2.027 1.904 1.779 1.623 1.488 1.362 1.247 1.139 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 54.95 56.06 57.41 59.01 60.52 62.10 63.75 65.48 67.28 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 51.06 51.64 52.13 52.72 53.41 54.13 54.88 55.66 56.48 IMR - BOTH SEXES 111.7 107.4 99.7 90.6 82.4 73.5 64.9 56.5 48.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1628 .1560 .1438 .1298 .1174 .1038 .0905 .0774 .0640 DEP. RATIO 85.9 85.0 83.2 78.9 73.3 68.0 63.7 60.3 57.1 53.5 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 67 Suunary Projection for 25-Year Periods SOUTH ASIA COUNTRY DEPARTMENT III AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 130104 193186 316186 420583 488968 523277 542123 552605 HALES 0-4 11394 14679 17258 16955 16939 16858 16834 16821 5-9 9560 13285 17058 17124 16906 16830 16815 16808 10-14 8329 12111 16523 17005 16824 16798 16808 16808 15-19 7429 10594 15628 16549 16699 16771 16798 16800 20-24 6303 9169 14712 16370 16585 16752 16768 16772 25-29 5311 7934 13607 16624 16623 16725 16725 16721 30-34 4435 7014 12561 16481 16748 16653 16654 16663 35-39 3219 5904 11372 15852 16531 16497 16564 16604 40-44 2608 4928 9813 14846 15965 16282 16464 16532 45-49 2271 4048 8351 13795 15630 16058 16353 16424 50-54 1916 2849 7015 12478 15597 15885 16161 16238 55-59 1594 2201 5906 11078 15002 15640 15808 15927 60-64 1202 1780 4590 9424 13741 14888 15234 15476 65-69 894 1339 3382 7341 11905 13574 14400 14827 70-74 602 935 2281 5326 9787 12125 13251 13876 754 547 868 1952 6072 13970 22651 27536 30282 TOTAL 67613 99639 162008 213320 245449 260985 269174 273579 FEMALES 0-4 10750 14224 16484 16127 16107 16028 16007 15998 5-9 8688 12918 16342 16294 16081 16005 15991 15989 10-14 7586 11769 15888 16184 16007 15977 15985 15988 15-19 6810 9969 15081 15764 15903 15961 15984 15988 20-24 5818 8258 14245 15619 15828 15973 15980 15984 25-29 4910 7119 13171 15939 15911 15990 15977 15970 30-34 4101 6308 12113 15875 16069 15959 15945 15949 35-39 2962 5333 10899 15330 15894 15845 15892 15925 40-44 2494 4461 9071 14416 15391 15687 15843 15899 45-49 2133 3678 7386 13462 15128 15538 15806 15860 50-54 1804 2604 6216 12239 15255 15497 15742 15800 55-59 1558 2114 5321 10965 14913 15455 15587 15680 60-64 1104 1700 4255 9467 13986 15002 15297 15503 65-69 797 1303 3246 7346 12538 14103 14881 15267 70-i4 539 956 2282 5325 10806 13193 14316 14925 75+ 439i 831 2178 6911 17701 30079 37715 42298 TOTAL 62491 93547 154178 207264 243518 262292 272949 279025 BIRTH RATE 38.6 28.2 18.7 14.6 13.1 12.3 12.0 DEATH RATE 12.1 8.7 7.4 8.7 10.4 10.9 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.64 1.97 1.14 .60 .27 .14 .08 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.297 3.546 2.342 2.118 2.087 2.067 2.063 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 56.25 62.49 70.00 75.51 79.48 82.80 84.18 INR - BOTH SEXES 106.0 73.3 35.9 15.2 7.7 3.1 2.6 COUNTRIES9 ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 70 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES AFGEIRMSTAN Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2050 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 18087 20445 23436 26968 31221 36062 41246 46822 52759 58912 MALES 0-4 1732 1806 2176 2520 2948 3316 3558 3819 4066 4239 5-9 1306 1590 1663 2012 2342 2761 3129 3382 3656 3921 10-14 1128 1276 1555 1628 1972 2300 2716 3083 3338 3615 15-19 969 1101 1246 1520 1594 1934 2259 2672 3038 3294 20-24 820 936 1065 1208 1476 1551 1886 2207 2616 2980 25-29 688 786 899 1024 1165 1428 1504 1833 2151 2555 30-34 572 656 750 860 984 1122 1380 1457 1781 2095 35-39 476 541 621 713 821 942 1078 1329 1408 1727 40-44 391 445 507 585 674 779 897 1030 1275 1355 45-49 319 361 412 471 545 631 732 846 976 1212 50-54 254 288 327 375 431 501 582 678 787 912 55-59 198 222 253 288 333 384 449 524 614 716 60-64 150 165 186 213 245 284 330 388 455 536 65-69 104 116 129 146 169 195 228 267 315 373 70-74 65 73 82 91 105 122 142 167 197 235 75+ 57 59 65 73 83 96 113 134 160 191 TOTAL 9231 10421 11936 13728 15887 18346 20982 23816 26833 29954 FEMALES 0-4 1697 1758 2117 2448 2861 3206 3428 3668 3892 4042 5-9 1249 1561 1621 1960 2279 2682 3027 3258 3510 3751 10-14 1093 1217 1522 1583 1917 2234 2634 2979 3213 3468 15-19 925 1061 1183 1482 1544 1874 2189 2586 2931 3169 20-24 781 888 1020 1140 1433 1497 1823 2135 2531 2877 25-29 654 743 846 976 1094 1380 1448 1769 2080 2473 30-34 548 618 704 805 932 1049 1329 1400 1717 2026 35-39 455 515 583 666 765 889 1005 1279 1353 1666 40-44 374 425 483 548 629 726 848 963 1231 1307 45-49 304 347 396 451 515 593 688 807 920 1181 50-54 245 278 319 365 418 479 555 646 762 873 55-59 191 218 248 286 329 379 438 510 598 708 60-64 142 162 186 213 248 288 334 388 456 538 65-69 97 112 129 150 173 203 238 280 328 389 70-74 59 69 81 94 110 129 154 182 217 257 75+ 41 51 61 74 88 106 127 155 189 230 TOTAL 8856 10023 11499 13240 15334 17715 20264 23005 25926 28958 BIRTH RATE 46.6 49.0 48.9 48.9 46.7 42.8 39.6 36.6 33.4 DEATH RATE 21.9 21.5 20.7 19.5 17.8 15.9 14.2 12.7 11.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.48 2.75 2.82 2.94 2.89 2.69 2.54 2.39 2.21 NET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -.2 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.45 2.73 2.81 2.93 2.88 2.69 2.54 2.39 2.21 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.900 6.900 6.900 6.900 6.600 6.000 5.400 4.800 4.200 NRR 2.086 2.155 2.201 2.262 2.238 2.105 1.960 1.803 1.632 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 41.48 42.24 43.37 44.85 46.72 48.68 50.72 52.84 55.07 WS) - BOTH SEXES 42.95 43.45 44.15 45.06 45.96 46.89 47.85 48.85 49.89 INR - BOTH SEXES 172.0 167.6 161.1 152.8 141.1 129.4 117.7 106.0 94.3 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .2574 .2509 .2411 .2285 .2102 .1916 .1729 .1540 .1348 DEP. RATIO 91.2 90.1 91.6 90.1 93.0 92.7 89.6 84.0 77.8 72.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 71 Suwary Projection for 25-Year Periods AFGHANISTAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 18087 26968 52759 81024 102895 115989 122642 127131 MALES 0-4 1732 2520 4066 3874 3981 3994 3992 3983 5-9 1306 2012 3656 4000 4004 3998 3988 3978 10-14 1128 1628 3338 4081 4022 3983 3979 3975 15-19 969 1520 3038 4052 3960 3942 3964 3971 20-24 820 1208 2616 3981 3803 3898 3951 3967 25-29 688 1024 2151 3730 3711 3887 3950 3958 30-34 572 860 1781 3401 3836 3906 3942 3943 35-39 476 713 1408 3056 3877 3898 3909 3919 40-44 391 585 1275 2723 3801 3807 3847 3887 45-49 319 471 976 2284 3672 3615 3776 3852 50-54 254 375 787 1806 3345 3460 3714 3810 55-59 198 288 614 1404 2908 3460 3644 3732 60-64 150 213 455 1007 2422 3314 3499 3594 65-69 104 146 315 785 1914 2981 3212 3377 70-74 65 91 197 477 1330 2507 2756 3074 75+ 57 73 160 418 1255 3321 4900 6147 TOTAL 9231 13728 26833 41079 51840 57973 61024 63167 FEMALES 0-4 1697 2448 3892 3695 3781 37m3 3768 3761 5-9 1249 1960 3510 3821 3811 3782 3765 3757 10-14 1093 1583 3213 3898 3835 3773 3756 3754 15-19 925 1482 2931 3871 3785 3742 3744 3752 20-24 781 1140 2531 3807 3649 3714 3739 3753 25-29 654 976 2080 3581 3571 3719 3753 3755 30-34 548 805 1717 3275 3697 3752 3760 3750 35-39 455 666 1353 2955 3741 3758 3742 3735 40-44 374 548 1231 2647 3675 3686 3700 3716 45-49 304 451 920 2239 3565 3524 3656 3699 50-54 245 365 762 1791 3288 3406 3633 3694 55-59 191 286 598 1419 2916 3459 3621 3671 60-64 142 213 456 1046 2505 3396 3560 3611 65-69 97 150 328 853 2069 3176 3390 3505 70-74 59 94 217 530 1526 2833 3081 3356 75+ 41 74 189 517 1638 4522 6951 8695 TOTAL 8856 13240 25926 39945 51055 58017 61619 63964 BIRTH RATE 48.3 42.1 26.2 17.7 14.4 13.0 12.4 DEATH RATE 21.3 15.5 9.5 8.3 9.7 10.8 11.0 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.66 2.68 1.72 .96 .48 .22 .14 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.901 5.776 3.116 2.227 2.137 2.083 2.076 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 42.45 49.29 59.17 67.38 74.01 79.54 82.06 IMR - BOTH SEXES 166.4 128.0 76.9 40.5 18.4 4.6 3.4 72 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES AUSTRALIA Projection (thousends) With NRR1l by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 15758 17085 18399 19587 20635 21503 22202 22760 23250 23659 MALES 0-4 640 645 685 702 713 717 719 721 725 730 5-9 609 671 674 708 719 n4 721 719 721 725 10-14 677 633 694 692 722 728 727 n1 719 720 15-19 697 700 655 711 705 7n 731 W7 721 718 20-24 694 737 737 684 732 718 734 729 725 719 25-29 677 746 785 m 713 749 n4 732 n6 n2 30-34 636 722 788 818 799 727 754 722 n9 n4 35-39 606 669 752 810 834 ace 729 751 718 n6 40-44 505 626 687 765 819 837 806 725 746 714 45-49 425 512 631 689 764 81s 830 79 718 740 50-54 383 421 507 623 679 752 801 816 785 707 55-59 387 371 408 492 605 660 731 780 796 767 60-64 340 363 350 387 469 578 632 702 751 769 65-69 262 306 330 321 358 435 539 593 663 713 70-74 201 220 261 286 282 317 390 487 541 609 75+ 212 262 310 375 440 478 532 634 789 943 TOTAL 7953 8605 9253 9838 10352 10772 11103 11358 11572 11745 FEMALES 0-4 594 611 649 664 674 678 680 681 685 689 5-9 567 626 641 672 682 685 682 679 681 6W4 10-14 631 592 648 659 686 690 689 682 679 681 15-19 652 660 618 669 675 696 695 689 682 679 20-24 648 705 709 657 699 693 704 695 688 682 25-29 646 710 763 755 692 720 702 704 694 688 30-34 616 694 754 797 781 70 727 702 703 693 35-39 581 647 722 77 814 791 712 n6 701 701 40-44 472 597 661 733 784 817 791 710 724 699 45-49 396 478 601 664 734 783 81s 787 707 721 50-54 361 396 476 598 660 729 m 808 782 702 55-59 374 355 390 470 590 651 720 768 8oo 774 60-64 348 363 347 381 460 579 639 708 757 789 65-69 298 332; 348 334 369 446 s63 623 692 742 70-74 254 274 308 326 315 350 425 539 600 669 75+ 366 440 511 592 671 716 m 901 1105 1320 TOTAL 7805 8479 9146 9749 10283 10730 11096 11402 11677 11914 BIRTH RATE 15.0 14.8 14.2 13.7 13.2 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.2 DEATH RATE 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 8.1 8.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. .78 .76 .71 .66 .59 .54 .49 .43 .35 NET MIGRATION RATE 8.4 7.2 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.0 .1 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.62 1.48 1.25 1.04 .82 .64 .50 .43 .35 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.850 1.850 1.850 1.886 1.922 1.958 1.992 2.026 2.060 NRR .885 .886 .887 .906 .924 .942 .959 .976 .993 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 76.10 77.09 78.10 79.04 79.68 80.33 81.01 81.70 82.43 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 62.04 62.89 63.80 64.67 65.26 65.86 66.49 67.13 67.80 IMR - BOTH SEXES 8.0 6.7 5.7 5.1 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0102 .0086 .0075 .0068 .0063 .0058 .0053 .0048 .0043 DEP. RATIO 50.9 48.9 49.1 47.8 47.3 47.9 50.5 54.0 58.7 63.9 COUNTRIES, ECMNOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 73 Summery Projectlon for 25-Year Periods AUSTRALI AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 15758 19587 23250 24110 23962 24106 24248 24322 MALES 0-4 640 702 725 724 725 725 725 725 5-9 609 708 721 722 724 725 725 725 10-14 677 692 719 724 725 725 725 725 15-19 697 711 721 727 725 4 724 724 20-24 694 684 725 727 723 723 723 723 25-29 677 m 726 720 719 720 721 721 30-34 636 818 729 713 716 718 719 719 35-39 606 810 718 709 715 717 718 718 40-44 505 765 746 707 716 715 715 715 45-49 425 689 718 708 712 710 710 711 50-54 383 623 785 702 699 701 703 7U4 55-59 387 492 796 692 682 688 692 694 60-64 340 387 751 664 663 673 678 680 65-69 262 321 663 662 638 652 656 657 70-74 201 286 541 595 602 616 620 623 75+ 212 375 789 1387 1351 1390 1438 1463 TOTAL 7953 9838 11572 11882 11837 11923 11990 12026 FEMALES 0-4 594 664 685 684 684 685 685 685 5-9 567 672 681 682 684 685 685 684 10-14 631 659 679 684 685 685 685 684 15-19 652 669 682 687 686 685 684 684 20-24 648 657 688 688 685 684 684 684 25-29 646 755 694 683 682 683 684 684 30-34 616 797 703 679 681 683 684 684 35-39 581 777 701 676 681 683 683 683 40-44 472 733 724 678 384 683 683 682 45-49 396 664 707 682 684 681 681 681 50-54 361 598 782 685 677 677 679 680 55-59 374 470 800 689 669 673 677 678 60-64 348 381 757 680 662 670 674 675 65-69 298 334 692 693 657 668 669 670 ,O-74 254 326 600 661 650 659 660 662 75+ 366 592 1105 1996 1975 2000 2062 2094 TOTAL 7805 9749 11677 12228 12126 12183 12258 12296 BIRTH RATE 14.7 12.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 7.1 7.5 10.4 12.0 11.5 11.5 11.5 MET MIGRATION RATE 6.9 1.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.45 .69 .15 -.02 .02 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.854 1.956 2.069 2.069 2.068 2.067 2.067 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 77.14 80.40 83.13 84.51 85.28 85.84 86.06 IMR - BOTH SEXES 6.8 4.3 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 74 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES BANGLADESH ProJection (thousands) with NRR=l by 2015 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 95456 106656 117577 127929 138586 148803 15799 166895 175624 184041 MALES 0-4 8636 8145 8171 8040 8334 8230 7822 7785 7854 7893 5-9 7437 8006 7616 7719 7674 8011 7966 7624 7640 7765 10-14 6291 7251 7824 7463 7587 7562 7914 7889 7569 7604 15-19 5270 6175 7123 769k 7349 7485 7474 7837 7827 7523 20-24 4371 5152 6037 6965 7530 7209 7361 7369 7745 7754 25-29 3704 4257 5014 5876 6785 7357 7065 7236 7265 7660 30-34 2661 3602 4137 4874 5715 6621 7203 6938 7127 7178 35-39 2200 2581 3493 4012 4729 5564 6465 7056 6817 7025 40-44 1873 2124 2490 3371 3874 4581 5407 6303 6899 6686 45-49 1600 1796 2035 2385 3230 3723 4416 5227 6111 608 50-54 1379 1515 1699 1925 2257 3065 3541 4210 4996 5854 55-59 1129 1282 1407 1577 1788 2099 2855 3305 3935 4677 60-64 862 1019 1156 1268 1422 1612 1894 2578 2985 3556 65-69 637 740 874 990 1086 1218 1381 1622 2207 2555 70-74 504 504 584 689 781 857 960 1087 1276 1735 75+ 449 570 618 687 795 909 1011 1124 1262 1452 TOTAL 49002 54719 60279 65536 70936 76103 80736 85190 89516 93625 FEMALES 0-4 8214 7926 7938 7794 8062 7938 7523 7466 7512 7527 5-9 6986 7649 7447 7536 7475 7777 7702 7340 7326 7416 10-14 6090 6807 7473 7299 7411 7368 7685 7628 7287 7290 15-19 5037 5957 6667 7332 7175 7302 7276 7606 7567 7245 20-24 4187 4905 5806 6506 7168 7035 7179 7174 7521 7503 25-29 3523 4055 4755 5636 6326 6995 6888 7054 7073 7440 30-34 2559 3397 3914 4595 5457 6151 6828 6750 6939 6985 35-39 2126 2455 3263 3765 4430 5285 5982 6669 6621 6835 40-44 1826 2029 2346 3123 3612 4270 5117 5819 6516 6498 45-49 1537 1734 1930 2235 2981 3463 4112 4949 5652 6357 50-54 1257 1446 1635 1822 2114 2832 3304 3939 4761 5459 55-59 1006 1162 1339 1516 1694 1974 2657 3114 3729 4527 60-64 754 899 1041 1203 1367 1536 1800 2436 2870 3456 65-69 554 637 762 886 1028 1177 1332 1573 2144 2545 70-74 401 427 493 593 693 813 940 1074 1281 1764 75+ 398 452 488 552 656 785 939 1115 1309 1569 TOTAL 46454 51938 57298 62393 67651 72700 m63 81705 86107 90417 BIRTH RATE 37.0 32.9 29.0 27.2 24.7 21.7 20.2 19.1 18.1 DEATH RATE 14.6 13.2 12.0 11.1 10.3 9.6 9.2 8.9 8.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.24 1.97 1.71 1.61 1.43 1.21 1.10 1.02 .94 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.2 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.22 1.95 1.69 1.60 1.42 1.20 1.10 1.02 .94 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.000 4.250 3.500 3.i22 2.785 2.485 2.374 2.316 2.260 NRR 1.772 1.547 1.320 1.221 1.117 1.021 1.000. 1.000 1.000 oCO) - BOTH SEXES 5u.76 52.14 53.84 55.76 57.57 59.45 61.39 63.41 65.50 C15, - B0TH SEXES 49.81 49.93 50.09 50.42 51.33 52.27 53.24 54.24 55.26 IMR - BOTH SEXES 110.0 100.9 89.7 77.7 71.4 65.2 58.9 52.7 46.4 qCS) BOTH SEXES .182 .1656 .1449 .1232 .1107 .0982 .0855 .0728 .0599 DEP. RATIO 95.4 85.4 74.7 64.7 59.3 54.7 50.7 47.0 45.2 45.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 75 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods BANGLADESH AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 95456 127929 175624 210612 228974 241583 250293 254879 MALES 0-4 8636 8040 7854 m7 7748 744 7740 ms 5-9 7437 7719 7640 mo 7747 7741 m5 mo 10-14 6291 7463 7569 7766 7749 7m6 7 7728 15-19 5270 7694 7827 7786 7720 7718 7723 7723 20-24 4371 6965 7745 7708 7646 7688 7705 7710 25-29 3704 5876 7265 7590 7604 7658 7685 7690 30-34 2661 4874 7127 7394 7581 7639 7663 7666 35-39 2200 4012 6817 7269 7580 7610 7631 7639 40-44 1873 3371 6899 7437 7551 7541 7578 7601 45-49 1600 2385 6111 7249 7405 7419 7506 7548 50-54 1379 1925 4996 6624 7159 7281 7401 7463 55-59 1129 1577 3935 6207 6747 7094 7254 7330 60-64 862 1268 2985 5507 6284 6844 7036 7133 65-69 637 990 2207 4948 5896 6441 6689 6833 70-74 504 689 1276 3629 4998 5761 6151 6383 75+ 449 687 1262 3664 7211 10433 12875 14080 TOTAL 49002 65536 89516 106246 114625 120349 124103 125994 FEMALES 0-4 8214 7794 7512 7378 73s 7379 7377 7373 5-9 6986 7536 7326 7374 7390 7379 7372 7369 10-14 6090 7299 7287 7410 7396 7376 7369 7368 15-19 5037 7332 7567 7434 7378 7365 7364 n66 20-24 4187 6506 7521 7371 7326 7351 7359 7364 25-29 3523 5636 7073 7287 7308 7343 7357 7360 30-34 2559 4595 6939 7127 7299 7343 7352 7353 35-39 2126 3765 6621 7034 7310 7333 7337 7342 40-44 1826 3123 6516 7226 7296 7291 7310 7325 45-49 1537 2235 5652 7084 7175 7205 7273 7303 50-54 1257 1822 4761 6530 6999 7127 7229 7276 55-59 1006 1516 3729 6211 6702 7028 7171 7230 60-64 754 1203 2870 5640 6398 6906 7081 7158 65-69 554 886 2144 5108 6222 6691 6922 7047 70-74 401 593 1281 3835 5544 6256 6649 6874 75+ 398 552 1309 4318 9221 13861 17668 19775 TOTAL 46454 62393 86107 104366 114349 121234 126191 128885 BIRTH RATE 32.7 22.3 16.3 13.9 13.0 12.3 12.0 DEATH RATE 13.2 9.8 9.2 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.95 1.27 .73 .33 .21 .14 .07 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.171 2.594 2.199 2.101 2.078 2.064 2.061 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 52.35 59.75 68.64 74.91 79.a4 82.79 84.14 IMR - BOTH SEXES 100.3 65.5 34.3 13.2 6.9 2.9 2.5 76 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES BHE TAN ProJection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2035 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1286 1433 1614 1821 2045 2268 2492 2712 2938 3157 MALES 0-4 99 114 134 150 161 163 165 165 170 168 5-9 87 94 109 128 144 155 158 161 162 167 10-14 78 85 92 107 126 143 154 157 160 161 15-19 68 77 84 91 106 125 141 152 155 158 20-24 59 66 75 82 89 104 123 139 150 153 25-29 51 57 65 73 80 87 102 120 137 148 30-34 44 50 55 63 71 78 85 100 118 135 35-39 38 42 48 53 61 69 76 83 98 116 40-44 33 36 40 46 51 58 67 74 81 95 45-49 27 31 34 38 43 49 56 64 71 78 50-54 22 25 29 32 36 41 46 53 61 68 55-59 18 20 23 26 29 32 37 42 49 57 60-64 13 15 17 20 22 25 29 33 38 44 65-69 9 11 12 14 16 18 21 24 28 32 70-74 6 7 8 9 10 12 14 16 18 22 75+ 5 5 7 8 9 11 12 15 17 20 TOTAL 655 735 831 940 1055 1170 1285 1397 1512 1623 FEMALES 0-4 96 108 128 145 156 157 158 158 162 160 5-9 82 90 102 122 140 151 152 154 154 159 10-14 74 81 88 101 120 138 149 151 153 153 15-19 63 72 79 86 99 118 136 147 149 152 20-24 55 61 69 76 84 96 116 134 145 148 25-29 48 53 58 67 74 81 94 113 131 143 30-34 42 46 51 56 64 71 79 91 111 129 35-39 36 40 43 48 53 61 68 76 *89 109 40-44 31 34 38 41 46 51 59 66 74 87 45-49 27 29 32 35 38 43 149 57 64 72 50-54 22 25 26 30 33 36 41 46 54 61 55-59 18 20 22 24 27 30 33 38 43 51 60-64 14 16 17 19 21 24 27 30 34 40 65-69 11 12 13 14 16 17 20 23 26 30 70-74 7 8 8 9 10 12 13 16 18 21 75+ 6 6 7 8 9 11 13 15 18 21 TOTAL 631 698 782 882 990 1098 1207 1314 1425 1534 BIRTH RATE 38.6 40.0 39.4 36.9 33.1 30.0 27.2 25.4 23.1 DEATH RATE 16.8 16.3 15.2 13.8 12.4 11.2 10.2 9.4 8.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.17 2.37 2.42 2.32 2.07 1.88 1.69 1.60 1.44 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.17 2.37 2.42 2.32 2.07 1.88 1.69 1.60 1.44 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.530 5.530 5.530 5.230 4.630 4.030 3.430 3.035 2.686 NRR 1.839 1.928 2.006 1.971 1.789 1.596 1.393 1.263 1.164 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 47.94 49.12 50.68 52.54 54.36 56.27 58 ?8 60.38 62.60 e05) - BOTH SEXES 45.72 46.15 46.61 47.24 48.43 49.66 50.96 52.31 53.74 IHR - BOTH SEXES 127.1 119.4 108.7 96.6 89.0 81.4 73.8 66.3 58.7 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .1884 .1757 .1579 .1384 .1267 .1149 .1030 .0911 .0791 DEP. RATIO 76.5 76.2 78.2 81.0 81.S 77.1 70.4 63.5 58.6 54.5 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 77 Suisry ProJection for 25-Year Period. BHUTAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1286 1821 2938 3904 4568 4912 5116 5231 MALES 0-4 99 '150 170 162 160 160 160 160 5-9 87 128 162 160 159 159 160 160 10-14 78 10? 160 157 158 159 160 160 15-19 68 91 15s 157 158 159 160 160 20-24 59 82 150 163 158 159 159 159 25-29 51 73 137 163 159 158 158 159 30-34 44 63 l18 155 156 156 158 158 35-39 38 53 98 152 153 155 157 158 40-44 33 46 81 146 151 154 156 157 45-49 27 38 71 139 156 153 155 156 50-54 22 32 61 123 152 151 152 154 55-59 18 26 49 101 140 145 148 151 60-64 13 20 38 77 128 136 143 146 65-69 9 14 28 56 112 127 136 140 70-74 6 9 18 40 91 118 125 131 75+ 5 8 IT 41 109 203 254 282 TOTAL 655 940 1512 1991 2301 2454 2541 2589 FEMALES 0-4 96 145 162 155 153 152 152 152 5-9 82 122 154 153 152 152 152 152 10-14 A4 101 153 150 152 152 152 152 15-19 63 86 149 149 152 152 152 152 20-24 55 76 145 155 153 152 152 152 25-29 48 67 131 155 153 152 152 152 30-34 42 56 111 148 151 151 151 152 35-39 36 68 89 146 147 150 151 152 40.44 31 41 74 140 145 150 151 151 45-49 27 35 64 134 149 149 151 151 50-54 22 30 54 118 147 148 149 150 55-59 18 24 43 97 137 144 147 149 60-64 14 19 34 73 129 137 144 147 65-69 11 14 26 55 117 130 141 145 70-74 7 9 18 41 99 126 136 141 75+ 6 8 18 45 133 260 342 392 TOTAL 631 882 1425 1913 2267 2458 2575 2642 BIRTH RATE 39.4 30.0 19.4 15.0 13.3 12.5 12.1 DEATH RATE 16.0 11.2 8.2 8.8 10.4 10.8 11.2 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.32 1.91 1.14 .63 .29 .16 .09 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.532 3.927 2.337. 2.128 2.090 2.066 2.062 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 49.36 56.73 65.90 72.57 77.74 82.01 83.64 INR - BOTH SEXES 117.6 81.4 45.9 21.7 10.3 3.2 2.6 78 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRTFORIES BRUNEI Projectfon (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2015 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 219 256 297 337 374 406 433 458 483 506 MALES 0-4 16 16 19 20 19 18 17 18 19 19 5-9 12 16 16 19 20 20 18 17 18 19 10-14 12 12 17 16 '9 20 20 18 17 18 15-19 11 12 12 17 16 19 20 20 18 17 20-24 14 12 13 13 17 17 19 20 20 18 25-29 1S 15 13 14 14 18 17 19 20 19 30-34 13 16 16 14 15 14 18 17 19 20 35-39 9 14 17 17 14 15 14 17 17 19 40-44 7 10 14 17 17 14 15 14 17 16 45-49 5 7 10 14 17 17 14 15 14 17 50-54 4 5 7 10 14 17 17 14 14 14 55-59 4 4 5 7 9 14 16 16 14 14 60-64 2 4 4 5 7 9 13 16 16 13 65-69 2 2 3 3 4 6 8 12 15 15 70-74 1 2 2 3 3 4 6 8 11 14 75+ 1 1 2 2 4 5 6 8 11 16 TOTAL 127 148 169 191 210 226 238 249 260 269 FEMALES 0-4 14 15 18 19 19 18 17 17 18 18 5-9 14 14 15 18 19 19 18 17 17 18 10-14 12 14 14 16 18 19 19 18 17 17 15-19 11 12 14 15 16 18 19 19 18 17 20-24 9 11 12 14 15 16 18 19 19 18 25-29 7 9 12 13 15 15 16 18 19 19 30-34 5 7 10 12 13 15 15 16 18 19 35-39 4 5 7 10 12 13 15 15 16 18 40-44 4 4 5 7 10 12 13 15 15 16 45-49 4 4 4 5 7 10 12 13 15 15 50-54 3 4 4 4 5 7 10 12 13 14 55-59 2 3 4 4 4 5 7 10 12 12 60-64 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 7 9 11 65-69 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 7 9 70-74 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 75+ 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 TOTAL 92 108 127 146 164 181 195 209 223 237 BIRTH RATE 25.6 26.2 24.3 21.4 18.5 16.3 15.7 15.7 15.2 DEATH RATE 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.1 5.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.21 2.29 2.11 1.81 1.49 1.22 1.11 1.06 .96 NET HIGRATION RATE 9.3 6.5 4.4 2.8 1.5 .5 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.14 2.94 2.55 2.09 1.64 1.27 1.11 1.06 .96 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.100 3.700 3.300 2.876 2.507 2.185 2.068 2.066 2.064 NRR 1.958 1.776 i.588 1.387 1.210 1.056 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 74.42 76.22 77.77 79.10 79.73 80.37 81.03 81.71 82.41 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 60.55 62.08 63.48 64.73 65.30 65.90 66.51 67.14 67.79 INR - BOTH SEXES 10.0 7.3 5.9 5.1 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0125 .0093 .0077 .0068 .0063 .0058 .0053 .0048 .0043 DEP. RATIO 64.3 59.9 59.4 57.2 55.9 52.1 48.3 47.8 50.6 54.7 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrTORIES 79 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods BRUNEI AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 219 337 483 569 609 617 621 624 MALES 0-4 16 20 19 18 18 18 19 19 5-9 12 19 18 18 18 19 19 18 10-14 12 16 17 18 19 19 19 18 15-19 11 17 18 19 19 19 18 18 20-24 14 13 20 19 19 18 18 18 25-29 15 14 20 19 18 18 18 18 30-34 13 14 19 18 18 18 18 18 35-39 9 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 40-44 7 17 17 18 19 18 18 18 45-49 5 14 14 19 19 18 18 18 50-54 4 10 14 19 18 18 18 18 55-59 4 7 14 18 17 17 18 18 60-64 2 5 16 15 16 17 17 17 65-69 2 3 15 15 16 17 17 17 70-74 1 3 11 12 16 16 16 16 75+ 1 2 11 26 34 35 37 37 TOTAL 127 191 260 289 302 305 306 307 FEMALES 0-4 14 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 5-9 14 18 17 17 18 18 1E 18 10-14 12 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 15-19 11 15 18 18 18 18 18 18 20-24 9 14 19 18 18 18 18 18 25-29 7 13 19 18 17 18 18 18 30-34 5 12 18 17 17 18 18 18 35-39 4 10 16 17 17 18 18 18 40-44 4 7 15 18 18 18 18 18 45-49 4 5 15 19 18 18 18 18 50-54 3 4 13 19 18 17 17 17 55-59 2 4 12 18 17 17 17 17 60-64 2 4 9 15 16 17 17 17 65-69 1 3 7 14 17 17 17 17 70-74 1 2 5 14 18 17 17 17 75+ 1 2 8 25 45 50 52 54 TOTAL 92 146 223 280 306 313 315 316 BIRTH RATE 25.3 17.3 13.7 12.3 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 3.4 4.2 7.2 9.6 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 6.5 .9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.88 1.43 .66 .27 .06 .03 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.636 2.309 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 2.057 etO) - BOTH SEXES 76.30 80.48 83.14 84.52 85.29 85.85 86.08 IHR - BOTH SEXES 7.6 4.3 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 80 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TBERRTORIES CAMBODIU Projection (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2015 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 7486 8469 9467 10254 1092 11605 12290 12997 13671 14265 MALES 0-4 653 705 722 619 560 575 593 620 619 594 5-9 165 616 674 697 602 547 563 583 611 612 10-14 401 163 607 666 690 59T 542 559 580 608 15-19 485 393 160 S99 657 692 591 538 555 577 20-24 417 472 383 156 So? 667 672 583 532 550 25-29 372 403 458 373 153 575 63S 662 576 526 30-34 319 358 390 444 364 149 564 624 653 569 35-39 245 306 344 376 431 354 146 553 614 644 40-44 168 233 291 329 362 416 344 142 541 602 45-49 137 158 219 275 313 346 400 332 138 526 50-54 113 125 145 203 257 295 327 380 316 132 55-59 92 101 112 131 165 236 271 303 354 296 60-64 67 79 86 97 115 163 209 242 272 320 65-69 43 53 63 70 80 95 136 176 206 234 70-74 27 31 39 46 52 60 72 105 137 162 75+ 17 23 29 36 45 S6 64 77 106 145 TOTAL 3722 4218 4721 m 517 S454 5791 6130 6479 6809 7098 FEMALES 0-4 641 687 702 600 S42 S56 574 600 599 575 5-9 177 604 658 679 565 530 547 567 594 595 10-14 400 174 596 650 673 0 527 544 564 592 15-19 469 392 171 say 64S 666 576 523 541 562 20-24 403 457 383 167 578 634 659 570 520 538 25-29 361 390 444 374 164 S6u 625 651 565 516 30-34 316 348 378 432 365 161 559 616 644 560 35-39 244 303 336 366 421 357 1S8 550 608 637 40-44 176 233 291 324 355 409 349 155 540 599 45-49 149 167 222 279 312 344 397 340 151 530 50-54 133 140 157 210 266 299 330 383 329 147 55-59 107 122 129 146 197 250 282 313 365 315 60-64 80 94 108 116 132 180 229 261 291 342 65-69 52 67 79 92 100 115 157 203 232 262 70-74 34 40 51 62 73 80 93 129 168 194 75+ 24 33 41 54 68 84 97 115 151 202 TOTAL 3764 4251 4745 5137 5474 S814 6160 6518 6862 7167 BIRTH RATE 41.3 36.4 27.6 22.8 21.8 21.0 20.5 19.2 17.5 DEATH RATE 16.6 14.1 11.6 10.0 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.1 9.0 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.47 2.23 1.60 1.27 1.20 1.15 1.12 1.01 .85 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.47 2.23 1.60 1.27 1.20 1.15 1.12 1.01 .85 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.700 4.400 3.800 3.267 2.t0J 2.414 2.272 2.226 2.181 NRR 1.651 1.652 1.502 1.350 1.16 1.041 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 48.40 51.62 54.85 58.00 59.75 61.57 63.46 65.43 67.49 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 46.64 47.63 49.05 S0.65 51.73 S2.83 53.96 55.14 56.36 IMR - BOTH SEXES 130.0 107.6 89.2 74.0 66.9 59.9 52.8 45.8 38.7 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .1927 .1560 .1266 .1027 .0919 .0811 .0702 .0592 .0482 DEP. RATIO 54.3 60.6 81.9 71.4 59.3 50.1 47.7 49.0 50.2 50.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 81 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods CAMBODLA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 7486 10254 13671 16240 17856 18785 19425 19751 MALES 0-4 653 619 619 603 598 597 597 597 5-9 165 697 611 593 593 596 597 597 10-14 401 666 580 579 591 596 597 597 15-19 485 599 555 573 592 596 597 597 20-24 417 156 532 581 594 595 596 595 25-29 372 373 576 599 593 591 593 593 30-34 319 444 653 592 582 585 590 592 35-39 245 376 614 558 565 580 588 590 40-44 168 329 541 528 556 578 586 588 45-49 137 275 138 499 558 577 581 584 50-54 113 203 316 526 565 568 571 576 55-59 92 131 354 570 540 545 556 564 60-64 67 97 272 497 483 511 537 550 65-69 43 70 206 389 420 475 514 529 70-74 27 46 137 82 345 435 479 495 75+ 17 36 106 275 607 822 993 1086 TOTAL 3722 5117 6809 8045 8780 9247 9572 9730 FEMALES 0-4 641 600 599 579 571 569 569 570 5-9 177 679 594 572 568 568 569 569 10-14 400 650 564 560 566 569 570 569 15-19 469 587 541 557 568 570 570 569 20-24 403 167 520 568 573 571 569 569 25-29 361 374 565 588 574 569 568 568 30-34 316 432 644 583 567 565 567 568 35-39 244 366 608 551 554 562 566 568 40-44 176 324 540 524 548 563 567 567 45-49 149 279 151 498 556 565 566 565 50-54 133 210 329 532 569 563 561 562 55-59 107 146 365 590 555 549 554 558 60-64 80 116 291 534 511 529 546 554 65-69 52 92 232 442 465 511 539 549 70-74 34 62 168 109 410 497 528 538 75+ 24 54 151 410 921 1218 1446 1575 TOTAL 3764 5137 6862 8195 9075 9538 9853 10020 BIRTH RATE 34.6 21.0 16.0 13.7 12.8 12.2 11.9 DEATH RATE 13.9 9.5 9.1 10.0 10.8 10.9 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.10 1.15 .69 .38 .20 .13 .07 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.259 2.538 2.145 2.085 2.071 2.062 2.060 eCO) BOTH SEXES 51.85 61.85 70.38 76.19 80.11 83.27 84.45 IMR - BOTH SEXES 110.2 59.6 28.0 10.0 5.6 2.7 2.4 82 COUNTIRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES CHINA (EXCLUDIG TAIWAN) Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1047983 1133698 1218135 1293548 1359574 1420311 1480374 1540268 1597165 1647707 MALES 0-4 47850 60243 61443 58141 54553 53640 55192 57125 57694 56863 5-9 49717 47467 59861 61121 57880 54344 53470 55054 57019 57622 10-14 63635 49530 47314 59704 60981 57768 54258 53405 55006 56991 15-19 66160 63349 49327 47150 59523 60816 57630 54146 53312 54930 20-24 55466 65728 62955 49052 46907 59243 60552 57400 53950 53139 25-29 44230 55048 65260 62567 48"' 46636 58923 60242 57123 53705 30-34 45329 43876 54639 64862 621bo 48470 46378 58619 59950 56863 35-39 33845 44901 43486 54233 64412 61781 48169 46109 58303 59651 40-44 26726 33403 44360 43026 53698 63814 61239 47771 45754 57885 45-49 25145 26191 32782 43624 42360 52917 62943 60457 47204 45251 50-54 23328 24345 25411 31891 42524 41348 51723 61607 59255 46327 55-59 19472 22138 23177 24291 30604 40906 39870 49994 59688 57546 60-64 15426 17908 20456 21552 22754 28790 38644 37824 47628 57101 65-69 11211 13518 15813 18232 19420 20646 26304 35550 35034 44415 70-74 7484 9089 11085 13141 15408 16598 17844 22986 31408 31290 75+ 6253 8465 10836 13747 17293 21232 24672 27870 34218 45659 TOTAL 541276 585201 628205 666334 699260 728947 757811 786160 812545 835237 FEMALES 0-4 44418 57946 59029 55797 52298 51346 52752 54518 54978 54105 5-9 46381 44152 57681 58819 55633 52161 51228 52648 54428 54904 10-14 59622 46249 44047 57580 58733 55561 52101 51177 52605 54392 15-19 61765 59405 46105 43943 57474 58636 55478 52032 51118 52553 20-24 51146 61412 59113 45929 43808 57319 58495 55360 51937 51040 25-29 40748 50757 61015 58819 45744 43650 57140 58336 55232 51838 30-34 42361 40380 50364 60648 58539 45546 43482 56950 58171 55102 35-39 30644 41906 39994 49977 60268 58208 45315 43289 56735 57987 40-44 23538 30218 41384 39573 49531 59781 57786 45024 43047 56466 45-49 22015 23083 29682 40742 39036 48920 59118 57216 44635 42728 50-54 20797 21391 22474 28984 39893 38295 48082 58214 56447 44118 55-59 17740 19929 20551 21673 28064 38740 37297 46966 57029 55458 60-64 15031 16619 18732 19410 20598 26800 37172 35957 45493 55500 65-69 11901 13521 15018 17042 17842 19091 25043 35020 34151 43557 70-74 8792 9973 11401 12779 14733 15650 16987 22601 32049 31689 75+ 9806 11553 13339 15500 18119 21661 25088 28799 36565 51031 TOTAL 506707 548497 589930 627214 660314 691363 722563 754108 784620 812470 BIRTH RATE 22.5 21.1 18.6 16.4 15.4 15.1 15.0 14.5 13.8 DEATH RATE 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.58 1.45 1.21 1.00 .88 .83 .80 .73 .62 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 *.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.57 1.44 1.20 1.00 .87 .83 .79 .73 .62 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.581 2.374 2.183 2.111 2.104 2.098 2.091 2.084 2.077 NRR 1.193 1.107 1.027 1.000 1.000 1.ooo 1.000 1.000 1.000 etO) - BOTH SEXES 69.46 70.64 71.92 73.28 74.30 75.36 76.48 77.66 78.89 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 57.65 58.29 59.13 60.13 60.91 61.73 62.60 63.53 64.50 IMR - BOTH SEXES 32.0 26.8 22.0 17.9 15.3 12.7 10.1 7.6 5.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0390 .0320 .0263 .0215 .0185 .0156 .0126 .0096 .0067 DEP. RATIO 53.9 48.8 50.2 51.8 48.3 44.8 44.4 47.6 50.4 54.7 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 83 Suwnary Projection for 25-Year Periods CHINA (EXCLUDING TAIWAN) AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1047983 1293548 1597165 1763792 1821788 1854433 1875082 1885710 MALES 0-4 47850 58141 57694 56583 56189 56132 56156 56166 5-9 49717 61121 57019 56035 55984 56087 56133 56135 10-14 63635 59704 55006 55520 55990 56152 56155 56133 15-19 66160 47150 53312 55683 56215 56213 56130 56094 20-24 55466 49052 53950 56569 56386 56120 55998 55989 25-29 44230 62567 57123 57148 56164 55828 55803 55842 30-34 45329 64862 59950 56311 55478 55498 55644 55712 35-39 33845 54233 58303 54093 54775 55334 55558 55591 40-44 26726 43026 45754 52145 54687 55350 55437 55394 45-49 25145 43624 47204 52426 55254 55258 55112 55044 50-54 23328 31891 59255 54834 55266 54576 54404 54454 55-59 19472 24291 59688 56351 53522 53125 53380 53632 60-64 15426 21552 47628 53044 50080 51283 52158 52534 65-69 11211 18232 35034 39536 46348 49425 50532 50855 70-74 7484 13141 31408 37510 43609 47153 47900 48134 75+ 6253 13747 34218 88818 98504 104241 109019 111862 TOTAL 541276 666334 812545 882607 904451 917776 925519 929571 FEMALES 0-4 44418 55797 54978 53894 53543 53503 53530 53541 5-9 46381 58819 54428 53363 53353 53468 53519 53524 10-14 59622 57580 52605 52856 53358 53530 53544 53525 15-19 61765 43943 51118 53016 53594 53609 53543 53511 20-24 51146 45929 51937 53926 53832 53591 53489 53481 25-29 40748 58819 55232 54690 53730 53425 53413 53451 30-34 42361 60648 58171 54094 53164 53218 53369 53437 35-39 30644 49977 56735 52173 52571 53160 53386 53424 40-44 23538 39573 43047 50549 52611 53310 53405 53372 45-49 22015 40742 44635 51129 53345 53432 53303 53248 50-54 20797 28984 56447 53949 53818 53140 52997 53056 55-59 17740 21673 57029 56140 52806 52293 52580 52836 .60-64 15031 19410 45493 53785 50340 51300 52223 52601 65-69 11901 17042 34151 39693 47926 50733 51926 52247 70-74 8792 12779 32049 39249 47074 50436 51305 51531 75+ 9806 15500 36565 108680 132273 144511 154035 159353 TOTAL 506707 627214 784620 881186 917336 936658 949563 956139 BIRTH RATE 20.6 15.2 13.0 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.6 6.8 9.1 11.0 11.3 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.40 .84 .40 .13 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.358 2.097 2.073 2.064 2.061 2.058 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 70.73 75.51 80.20 82.77 84.22 85.30 85.74 IMR - BOTH SEXES 27.0 12.6 4.2 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 84 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES FMJI ProJectlon (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2005 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 700 744 782 813 842 874 909 947 984 1022 MALES 0-4 51 47 4b 41 38 39 40 39 38 38 5-9 47 49 46 43 40 38 38 39 39 38 10-14 40 46 48 44 42 39 37 38 39 39 15-19 36 39 44 47 43 41 38 36 37 39 20-24 36 34 36 42 45 42 40 37 36 37 25-29 31 33 31 34 40 43 40 39 37 36 30-34 25 28 30 28 32 38 42 39 38 37 35-39 21 23 26 28 27 30 37 41 39 38 40-44 17 19 21 24 27 26 29 36 40 38 45-49 14 16 18 20 23 26 25 28 35 39 50-54 11 13 14 17 19 22 25 24 27 34 55-59 9 10 12 13 15 17 21 23 23 26 60-64 6 8 9 10 12 14 16 19 22 21 65-69 5 5 6 7 9 10 12 14 17 19 70-74 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 14 75+ 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 10 12 15 TOTAL 354 376 394 408 422 437 455 473 491 509 FEMALES 0-4 48 45 42 39 37 37 38 38 37 36 5-9 44 47 44 41 38 36 36 37 37 37 10-14 38 43 46 43 40 37 35 36 37 37 15-19 36 37 42 44 42 39 37 35 36 37 20-24 36 34 34 39 43 40 38 36 35 36 25-29 31 33 31 32 37 41 39 37 35 34 30-34 25 29 31 29 30 36 39 38 37 35 35-39 20 23 27 29 27 29 35 39 37 37 40-44 17 19 22 26 28 26 28 34 38 37 45-49 14 16 18 21 25 27 26 27 34 38 50-54 11 13 15 17 20 24 26 25 27 33 55-59 8 10 12 15 16 19 23 26 24 26 60-64 6 7 9 11 13 15 18 22 25 24 65-69 4 5 6 8 10 12 14 17 21 23 70-74 3 3 4 5 7 9 10 12 15 19 75+ 3 4 4 5 6 8 11 15 19 24 TOTAL 346 369 389 404 420 436 455 474 493 513 BIRTH RATE 26.7 23.7 20.8 18.8 18.2 17.8 16.9 15.8 14.8 DEATH RATE 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.95 1.68 1.41 1.22 1.15 1.10 .99 .86 .76 NET MIGRATION RATE -7.2 -6.8 -6.5 -5.2 -4.1 -2.9 -1.9 -.9 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.23 1.00 .76 .70 .74 .80 .80 .77 .76 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.250 2.866 2.527 2.229 2.119 2.111 2.103 2.095 2.087 NRR 1.467 1.316 1.175 1.048 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 63.79 65.31 66.96 68.71 69.93 71.23 72.60 74.05 75.60 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 51.31 52.45 53.77 55.23 56.37 57.58 58.87 60.23 61.68 IHR - BOTH SEXES 27.0 22.3 18.2 14.8 13.7 12.7 11.6 10.6 9.5 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0323 .0267 .0219 .0180 .0'68 .0155 .0143 .0131 .0119 DEP. RATIO 70.5 67.9 61.7 54.2 49.3 46.6 46.4 47.4 48.7 49.5 COUNTRtES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 85 Summary Projection for 25-Year Poriods FWI AGE GROUP 1985 2000 25 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 700 813 964 1143 1211 1244 1266 1276 MALES 0-4 51 41 38 38 38 38 38 38 5-9 47 43 39 38 38 38 38 38 10-14 40 44 39 38 38 38 38 38 15-19 36 47 37 38 38 38 38 38 20-24 36 42 36 37 38 38 38 38 25-29 31 34 37 38 38 38 38 38 30-34 25 28 3s 38 38 38 38 38 35-39 21 28 39 38 37 37 38 38 40-44 17 24 40 36 37 37 37 38 45-49 14 20 3S 35 36 37 37 37 50-54 11 17 27 35 36 37 37 37 55-59 9 13 23 35 36 36 36 36 60-64 6 10 22 34 35 35 35 35 65-69 5 7 1T 33 31 33 34 34 70-74 3 5 11 25 27 30 32 32 75+ 3 4 12 31 56 65 71 74 TOTAL 354 408 491 568 598 614 624 628 FEMALES 0-4 48 39 37 37 36 36 36 36 5-9 44 41 37 37 36 36 36 36 10-14 38 43 37 36 36 36 36 36 15-19 36 44 36 3S 36 36 36 36 20-24 36 39 3S 36 36 36 36 36 25-29 31 32 35 36 36 36 36 36 30-34 25 29 37 37 36 36 36 36 35-39 20 29 37 37 36 36 36 36 40-44 17 26 36 35 36 36 36 36 45-49 14 21 34 34 35 36 36 36 50-54 11 17 27 34 36 36 36 36 55-59 8 15 24 35 36 36 36 36 60-64 6 11 2S 3S 35 35 35 36 65-69 4 8 21 35 33 34 35 35 70-74 3 5 1S 29 31 33 34 35 75+ 3 5 19 47 81 94 103 107 TOTAL 346 404 493 57S 613 631 642 648 BIRTH RATE 23.6 17.4 14.0 12.6 12.2 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 6.9 6.9 8.1 10.3 11.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -6.8 -2.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.00 .76 .60 .23 .11 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.869 2.130 2. 00 2.067 2.062 2.059 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 65.41 71.41 77.49 81.19 83.27 84.84 85.45 IMR - BOTH SEXES 22.7 12.7 7.3 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 86 COUNRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES F'RENCH POLYNESIA Projection (thousands) with NRRs1 by 2010 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 171 197 225 254 280 301 321 340 360 379 MALES 0-4 10 13 15 15 15 13 13 14 14 15 5-9 14 11 13 15 15 15 13 13 14 14 10-14 12 14 11 13 15 15 15 13 13 14 15-19 10 12 14 11 13 15 15 15 13 13 20-24 7 11 12 14 11 13 15 15 15 13 25-29 5 8 11 12 14 11 13 15 15 15 30-34 5 6 8 11 12 14 11 13 15 15 35-39 5 5 6 8 11 12 14 11 13 14 40-44 4 5 6 6 8 11 12 14 11 13 45-49 4 4 5 6 6 8 11 12 14 11 50-54 3 4 4 5 5 6 8 11 12 13 55-59 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 8 10 11 60-64 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 7 10 65-69 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 7 70-74 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 75+ 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 TOTAL 88 101 115 129 142 152 162 171 181 190 FEMALES 0-4 11 12 14 15 14 13 13 13 14 14 5-9 13 11 12 14 15 14 13 13 13 14 10-14 12 13 11 12 14 15 14 13 13 13 15-19 11 12 13 11 12 14 15 14 13 13 20-24 7 11 12 13 11 12 14 15 14 13 25-29 5 8 11 12 13 11 12 14 15 14 30-34 5 6 8 11 12 13 11 12 14 15 35-39 4 5 6 8 11 12 13 11 12 14 40-44 4 4 6 6 8 11 12 13 11 12 45-49 3 4 4 6 6 8 11 12 13 11 50-54 2 3 4 4 5 6 8 11 12 13 55-59 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 8 11 12 60-64 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 8 11 65-69 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 7 70-74 0 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 75+ 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 TOTAL 83 96 111 125 138 149 159 169 179 189 BIRTH RATE 27.2 27.4 25.4 21.9 18.4 16.9 16.6 16.3 15.5 DEATH RATE 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.28 2.32 2.14 1.78 1.42 1.25 1.19 1.13 1.02 NET MIGRATION RATE 5.4 3.8 2.5 1.5 .7 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.82 2.70 2.39 1.93 1.49 1.25 1.19 1.12 1.02 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.550 3.180 2.808 2.480 2.190 2.084 2.079 2.074 2.070 NRR 1.668 1.507 1.337 1.185 1.049 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 71.68 73.08 74.45 75.80 76.66 77.56 78.49 79.46 80.47 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 58.99 59.99 61.05 62.16 62.86 63.58 64.34 65.13 65.95 IMR - BOTH SEXES 23.0 18.5 15.0 12.3 10.6 8.9 7.3 5.6 3.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0275 .0223 .0182 .0151 .0131 .0112 .0093 .0073 .0054 DEP. RATIO 79.1 68.4 59.6 59.9 57.8 52.6 47.8 45.5 45.5 47.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 87 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods FRNCH POLYNESIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 171 254 360 433 460 468 472 475 MALES 0-4 10 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 5-9 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 10-14 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 15-19 10 11 13 14 14 14 14 14 20-24 7 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 25-29 5 12 15 14 14 14 14 14 30-34 5 11 15 14 14 14 14 14 35-39 5 8 13 13 14 14 14 14 40-44 4 6 11 13 14 14 14 14 45-49 4 6 14 14 14 14 14 14 50-54 3 5 12 15 14 14 14 14 55-59 2 4 10 14 13 13 13 14 60-64 2 4 7 12 12 13 13 13 65-69 1 3 5 9 12 13 13 13 70-74 1 1 4 11 12 12 12 12 75+ 1 2 6 16 24 26 27 28 TOTAL 88 129 181 215 228 231 233 234 FEMALES 0-4 11 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 5-9 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 10-14 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 15-19 11 11 13 14 14 13 13 13 20-24 7 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 25-29 5 12 15 14 13 13 13 13 30-34 5 11 14 13 13 13 13 13 35-39 4 8 12 13 13 13 13 13 40-44 4 6 11 13 13 14 13 13 45-49 3 6 13 14 14 13 13 13 50-54 2 4 12 14 14 13 13 13 55-59 2 4 11 14 13 13 13 13 60-64 2 3 8 12 12 13 13 13 65-69 1 2 5 10 12 13 13 13 70-74 0 2 5 12 13 13 13 13 75+ 1 2 6 22 34 37 39 40 TOTAL 83 125 179 218 232 237 240 241 BIRTH RATE 26.6 17.8 13.9 12.4 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 4.2 4.5 6.6 10.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 3.8 .4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROuTH RATE 2.64 1.40 .74 .24 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.138 2.174 2.067 2.062 2.059 2.058 2.057 eoO) - BOTH SEXES 73.19 77.71 81.54 83.56 84.70 85.55 85.89 IMR - BOTH SEXES 18.6 8.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 88 COUNTRIES, ECONOMEMS, AND TERRITORIES GUAM Projection (thousafds) wt:h NRRl1 by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 123 137 149 159 170 180 191 200 209 216 MALES 0-4 8 8 A 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 5-9 8 8 a8 7 8 8 8 7 10-14 7 7 b a 7 7 7 8 8 15-19 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 20-24 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 25-29 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 30-34 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 35-39 4 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 40-44 3 4 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 45-49 3 3 4 5 6 7 6 6 7 7 50-54 3 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 55-59 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 60-64 1 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 65-69 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 70-74 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 75+ 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 TOTAL 64 71 77 82 87 92 97 101 105 109 FEMALES 0-4 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 5-9 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 10-14 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 15-19 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 20-24 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 25-29 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 30-34 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 35-39 3 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 40-44 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 45-49 2 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 50-54 2 2 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 7 55-59 2 2 2 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 60-64 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 65-69 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 5 5 S 70-74 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 75+ 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 TOTAL 59 66 72 78 83 88 94 99 103 107 BIRTH RATE 25,2 21.0 18.0 17.0 16.9 16.4 15.4 14.3 13.6 DEATH RATE 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.11 1.70 1.38 1.26 1.20 1.11 .98 .83 .70 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.11 1.70 1.38 1.26 1.20 1.11 .98 .83 .70 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.900 2.526 2.200 2.082 2.079 2.076 2.074 2.071 2.068 NRR 1.382 1.208 1.055 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 72.07 73.43 74.81 76.12 76.95 77.8l 78.72 79.67 80.67 eC15) - dOTH SEXES 58.38 59.54 60.77 61.95 62.71 63.51 64.35 65.22 66.14 IMR - BOTH SEXES 12.0 9.9 8.3 7.0 6.4 5.8 5.1 4.5 3.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0148 .0124 .0105 .0090 .0083 .0075 .C068 .0060 .0053 DEP. RATIO 00.6 58.3 53.9 49.7 45.0 43.8 45.2 49.1 52.2 54.9 COUNl7RIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES 89 Sumwmary Projection for 25-Year Periods GUAMi1 AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 123 159 209 235 244 248 250 251 MALES 0-4 8 7 7 8 I 7 7 7 5-9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 10-14 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 15-19 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 20-24 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 25-29 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 30-34 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 35-39 4 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 40-44 3 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 45-49 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 50-54 3 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 55-59 2 3 6 7 7 7 7 7 60-64 1 2 6 7 7 7 7 7 65-69 1 2 5 6 7 7 7 7 70-74 0 1 4 6 6 6 6 6 75+ 0 1 4 10 13 14 15 15 TOTAL 64 82 105 117 120 122 123 124 FEMALES 0-4 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5-9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 10-14 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 15-19 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 20-24 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 25-29 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 30-34 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 35-39 3 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 40-44 3 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 45-49 2 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 50-54 2 3 6 7 7 7 7 7 55-59 2 3 6 7 7 7 7 7 60-64 1 2 6 7 7 7 7 7 65-69 1 2 5 7 7 7 7 7 70-74 0 1 4 6 6 7 7 7 75+ 1 1 5 13 18 20 21 21 TOTAL 59 78 103 118 123 125 127 127 BIRTH RATE 21.2 15.9 13.1 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 4.1 5.3 8.3 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.73 1.08 .48 .14 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.526 2.076 2.066 2.061 2.059 2.058 2.057 ef - BO.H SEXES 73.52 77.95 81.69 83.65 84.76 85.58 85.91 INR - BOTH SEXES 10.2 5.7 3.4 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 90 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRIORIES HONG KONG ProJection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 5456 5806 6074 6297 6494 6656 6787 6888 6960 7000 MALES 0-4 211 194 185 174 177 179 182 183 183 184 5-9 222 217 197 188 177 179 181 183 183 183 10-14 236 226 219 200 190 179 180 182 183 183 15-19 243 239 228 221 201 191 180 181 182 183 20-24 294 252 244 233 225 204 193 181 181 181 25-29 318 306 258 250 237 228 207 195 181 180 30-34 266 328 311 263 254 240 231 208 195 181 35-39 221 273 332 314 266 256 242 231 208 194 40-44 137 225 275 332 315 266 256 241 230 207 45-49 144 138 225 273 330 313 265 254 240 229 50-54 149 142 136 221 269 325 308 261 251 236 55-59 133 144 138 133 215 263 318 301 255 246 60-64 108 125 137 132 127 207 253 307 291 248 65-69 80 99 115 128 124 120 196 240 292 278 70-74 55 68 86 103 115 112 109 179 221 270 75+ 43 67 93 125 160 192 209 217 283 371 TOTAL 2858 3043 3180 32a9 3383 3455 3509 3544 3560 3554 FEMALES 0-4 187 185 176 166 169 171 173 174 174 176 5-9 198 193 189 179 169 171 173 174 175 174 10-14 207 202 195 191 181 171 172 173 175 175 15-19 215 211 204 198 193 183 172 173 174 175 20-24 274 222 215 208 201 196 185 173 173 174 25-29 290 282 226 220 212 204 198 186 174 173 30-34 236 296 285 230 223 215 206 1" 187 174 35-30 188 240 298 287 232 224 216 207 199 187 40-44 108 190 240 298 287 232 224 215 206 199 45-49 116 108 189 240 297 286 231 223 215 206 50-54 124 115 107 188 238 295 284 230 222 213 55-59 118 121 113 106 185 235 292 281 228 220 60-64 104 114 118 111 104 182 231 287 277 225 65-69 82 99 110 114 107 101 177 226 281 272 70-74 66 76 92 103 108 102 97 170 218 273 75+ 86 109 135 169 205 234 248 251 324 433 TOTAL 2598 2762 2894 3008 3111 3201 3278 3344 3401 3446 BIRTH RATE 13.3 12.1 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.6 10.4 10.3 10.4 DEATH RATE 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.4 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.6 9.2 RATE OF MAT. INC. .80 .65 .50 .43 .35 .28 .23 .18 .11 NET MIGRATION RATE 4.4 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.0 .7 .3 C GROWTH RATE 1.24 .90 .72 .61 .49 .39 .29 .21 .11 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.450 1.450 1.450 1.560 1.665 1.764 1.857 1.946 2.030 NRR .696 .698 .699 .753 .805 .853 .899 .943 .984 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.98 78.19 79.27 80.26 80.80 81.35 81.92 82.50 83.10 e15) - BOTH SEXES 62.86 63.92 64.91 65.85 66.34 66.85 67.37 67.91 68.46 INR - BOTH SEXES 7.4 6.1 5.2 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.2 2.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0095 .0079 .0070 .0063 .0059 .0054 .0049 .0045 .0040 DEP. RATIO 44.2 42.6 41.9 41.3 40.8 40.2 44.7 51.9 63.0 73.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 91 Sumnary Projection for 25-Year Periods HONG KONG AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 5456 6297 6960 6596 6167 6142 6170 6186 MALES 0-4 211 174 183 183 183 183 183 183 5-9 222 188 183 183 183 183 183 183 10-14 236 200 183 183 183 183 183 183 15-19 243 221 182 184 183 183 183 183 20-24 294 233 181 184 183 183 183 183 25-29 318 250 181 182 182 182 182 182 30-34 266 263 195 181 181 182 182 182 35-39 221 314 208 181 181 181 181 181 40-44 137 332 230 179 181 181 181 181 45-49 144 273 240 177 180 180 180 180 50-54 149 221 251 176 177 178 178 1:8 55-59 133 133 255 186 174 175 175 176 60-64 108 132 291 194 170 171 172 172 65-69 80 128 292 206 162 166 166 166 70-74 55 103 221 202 152 156 157 158 75+ 43 125 283 493 378 358 367 373 TOTAL 2858 3289 3560 3272 3033 30'5 3038 3045 FEHALES 0-4 187 166 174 175 175 175 175 175 5-9 198 179 175 174 175 175 175 175 10-14 207 191 175 174 175 175 175 175 15-19 215 198 174 175 175 175 175 175 20-24 274 208 173 175 175 175 175 175 25-29 290 220 174 174 174 174 175 175 30-34 236 230 187 174 174 174 175 175 35-39 188 287 199 174 174 174 174 174 40-44 108 298 206 173 175 174 174 174 45-49 116 240 215 172 174 174 174 174 50-54 124 188 222 172 172 173 173 174 55-59 118 106 228 183 172 172 173 173 60-64 104 111 277 194 171 171 172 172 65-69 82 114 281 198 168 1V1 171 171 70-74 66 103 218 202 164 168 169 169 75+ 86 169 324 634 542 516 529 536 TOTAL 2598 3008 3401 3323 3134 3117 3132 3141 BIRTH RATE 12.1 10.6 10.5 11.3 11.7 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 5.7 7.6 12.6 14.0 11.9 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 3.0 1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .96 .40 -.22 -.27 -.02 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.454 1.750 2.055 2.059 2.058 2.057 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 78.18 81.39 83.68 84.83 85.48 85.96 86.15 INR - BOTH SEXES 6.3 3.9 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 92 COUNNTIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES INDIA Projection (thousands) with NRRc1 by 2015 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 765147 849515 929921 1006114 1081237 1153367 1219866 1284486 1347589 1407236 HALES 0-4 55988 59789 58476 56580 56593 56223 54624 55058 55866 55936 5-9 47525 54590 58510 57413 55768 55898 55645 54166 54696 55581 10-14 45388 47162 54218 58163 57124 55513 55671 55446 53999 54554 15-19 41073 45014 46798 53842 57801 56799 55229 55416 55222 53811 20-24 36411 40573 44483 46305 53331 57300 56352 54837 55067 54918 25-29 31864 35892 40002 43932 45786 52789 56773 55887 54437 54718 30-34 26744 31387 35364 39483 43417 45296 52280 56283 55461 54077 35-39 21867 26281 30860 34834 38947 42875 44780 51741 55763 55007 40-44 18663 21378 25718 30258 34212 38301 42217 44148 51075 55114 45-49 16623 18075 20731 24990 29459 33364 37413 41306 43266 50135 50-54 14705 15837 17249 19825 23954 28306 32135 36122 39976 41972 55-59 12269 13655 14737 16087 18543 22483 26660 30371 34256 38041 60-64 9678 10974 12244 13250 14517 16811 20477 24393 27914 31628 65-69 7200 8172 9298 10412 11323 12485 14550 17834 21377 24616 70-74 4882 5536 6313 7217 8138 8934 9942 11693 14463 17494 75+ 4205 5086 5920 6840 7895 9149 10433 11904 14049 17362 TOTAL 395083 439402 480922 519431 556808 592527 625181 656604 6868s8 714964 FEMALES 0-4 52944 56679 55672 54410 54659 54239 52637 52994 53711 53714 5-9 44373 53i8 55262 54677 53743 54097 53784 52291 52738 53532 10-14 41889 43945 50904 54928 54434 53535 53919 53639 52180 52658 15-19 37789 41427 43540 50536 54616 54166 53312 53736 53497 52082 20-24 33426 37156 40853 43056 50084 54196 53815 53031 53518 53346 25-29 29058 32705 36495 40267 42555 49584 53741 53447 52752 53321 30-34 24343 28350 32043 35894 39728 42060 49096 53307 53108 52510 35-39 20559 23678 27699 31433 35328 39179 41560 48606 52876 52779 40-44 18008 19926 23052 27075 30833 34n6 38591 41021 48075 52404 45-49 16174 17359 19292 22408 26414 30147 34029 37899 40374 47420 50-54 14162 15419 16629 18563 21650 25588 29282 33140 37007 39526 55-59 11740 13227 14493 15722 17648 2058 24504 28143 31966 35824 60-64 9359 10577 12025 13289 14532 16403 19306 23027 26592 30369 65-69 7104 7928 9077 10448 11680 12887 14677 17428 20970 24428 70-74 4891 5437 6177 7192 8411 9539 10676 12330 14847 18111 75+ 4246 4982 5784 6786 8116 9836 11756 13841 16489 20249 TOTAL 370064 410113 448998 486683 524429 560840 594685 627882 660701 692272 BIRTH RATE 32.4 28.4 25.0 22.9 21.1 19.1 18.0 17.2 16.3 DEATH RATE 11.3 10.2 9.2 8.5 8.1 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.7 RATE Of MAT. INC. 2.11 1.82 1.58 1.45 1.30 1.12 1.03 .96 .87 NET HIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.09 1.81 1.58 t44 1.29 1.12 1.03 .96 .87 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.266 3.742 3.222 2.84 2.565 2.288 2.186 2.154 2.122 NRR 1.692 1.529 1.366 1.257 1.138 1.031 1.000 1.000 1.000 etO) - BOTH SEXES 57.89 59.79 61.80 63.89 65.39 66.93 68.53 70.19 71.91 etIS) - BOTH SEXES 52.24 53.13 54.01 54.93 55.71 56.52 57.37 58.24 59.16 INR - BOTH SEXES 98.2 87.7 76.4 65.0 56.5 48.0 39.4 30.9 22.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1273 .1120 .0956 .0792 .0688 .0583 .0478 .0373 .0268 DEP. RATIO 72.1 70.3 67.8 62.0 55.9 51.6 48.5 46.7 46.1 46.7 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 93 Swmry Projection for 25-Year Periods INDIA AGE GROUP 985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 765147 1006114 1347589 1598877 1726071 1790301 1833918 1854762 MALES 0-4 59ps 56580 SS66 55714 55749 55708 55707 55697 5-9 47525 57413 54696 55402 55717 55697 55675 55658 10-14 45388 58163 53999 55327 55786 55721 55668 55648 15-19 41073 53842 55222 55400 55788 55678 55618 55611 20-24 36411 46305 55067 55229 55563 55515 55490 55515 25-29 31864 43932 544S 7 5477 55096 55283 55338 55371 30-34 26744 39483 55461 53539 54607 55102 55200 55222 35-39 21867 34834 55763 52604 54284 54963 55052 55059 40-44 18663 30258 51075 53439 54052 54712 54796 54821 45-49 16623 24990 43266 52756 53482 54181 54371 54456 50-54 14705 19825 39976 51165 52313 53156 53667 53877 55-59 12269 16087 34256 50389 49915 51728 52686 53018 60-64 9678 13250 27914 47921 47168 49972 51346 51779 65-69 7200 10412 21377 4009? 45001 47553 49288 49865 70-74 4882 7217 14463 29335 40111 43711 46016 46897 75+ 4205 6840 14049 39059 71893 87558 100359 106457 TOTAL 395083 519431 6E6888 802151 856525 886238 906277 914951 FEMALES 0-4 52944 56410 53711 53138 53105 53094 53101 53093 5-9 44373 54677 52738 52m93 53076 53089 53081 53068 10-14 41889 54928 52180 53000 53137 53108 53078 53062 15-19 37789 50536 53497 53237 53165 53088 53054 53050 20-24 33426 43056 53518 53321 53045 53010 53008 53031 25-29 29058 40267 52752 53164 52835 52913 52978 53008 30-34 24343 35894 53108 52158 52606 52854 52952 52978 35-39 20559 31433 52876 51424 52537 52832 52911 52927 40-44 18008 27075 48075 52435 52603 52747 52807 52839 45-49 16174 22408 40374 52025 52425 52461 52614 52706 50-54 14162 18563 37007 50609 51815 51969 52326 52530 55-59 11740 15722 31966 49896 50191 51313 51978 52284 60-64 9359 13289 26592 48055 48494 50619 51545 51926 65-69 7104 10448 20970 41373 47879 49737 50855 51359 70-74 4891 7192 14847 31606 44940 48012 49585 50406 75* 4246 6786 16489 48352 97692 123217 141767 151544 TOTAL 370064 486683 660701 796726 869546 904063 927640 939811 BIRTH RATE 28.4 19.5 15.0 13.1 12.4 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 10.2 7.9 8.2 10.1 11.0 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GR04TH RATE 1.83 1.17 .68 .31 .15 .10 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.708 2.390 2.105 2.075 2.066 2.060 2.059 etO) - BOTH SEXES S9.95 67.17 74.34 79.15 81.99 84.21 85.04 [MR - BOTH SEXES 87.7 48.2 15.7 5.0 3.4 2.4 2.2 94 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES INDONESIA Projection (thousands) with NRRa1 by 2005 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 164130 178232 192589 206473 219542 232257 244690 256491 267584 277944 MALES 0-4 12076 10688 10834 10796 10579 10640 10709 10669 10592 10532 5-9 11028 11706 10416 10615 10631 10440 10522 10612 10594 10539 10-14 9591 10919 11604 10340 10551 10575 10391 10480 10577 10567 15-19 7732 9483 10808 11501 10260 10479 10511 10338 10435 10541 20-24 7482 7606 9342 10662 11363 10151 10381 10426 10268 10378 25-29 6670 7335 7469 9188 10506 11216 10036 10281 10343 10203 30-34 5924 6526 7190 7334 9042 10359 11079 9932 10193 10275 35-39 4063 5774 6373 7037 7196 8891 10208 10942 9830 10110 40-44 3874 3933 5604 6201 6866 7039 8720 10038 10787 9716 45-49 3476 3710 3778 5398 5993 6657 6845 8507 9823 10589 50-54 2535 3274 3506 3582 5137 5725 6384 6590 8221 9530 55-59 2555 2327 3017 3242 3327 4794 5370 6017 6242 7824 60-64 1632 2254 2062 2686 2901 2996 4345 4897 5521 5764 65-69 1254 1356 1883 1732 2270 2474 2576 3768 4283 4870 70-74 825 950 1034 1446 1340 177 1959 2063 3051 3506 75+ 818 884 1002 1119 1458 1565 1941 2276 2547 3430 TOTAL 81535 88726 95922 102881 109422 115776 121976 127835 133307 138370 FEMALES 0-4 11569 10080 10481 10431 10208 10260 10320 10275 10195 10131 5-9 10496 11244 9850 10297 10298 10098 10170 10249 10225 10164 10-14 9428 10396 11154 9786 10245 10253 10062 10141 10228 10210 15-19 8572 9329 10301 11067 9724 10189 10207 10026 10114 10210 20-24 8260 8452 9210 10184 10961 9644 10120 10152 9986 10088 25-29 6723 8119 8319 9080 10059 10846 9560 10050 10100 9953 30-34 5540 6591 7972 8182 8950 9936 10735 9481 9988 10058 35-39 4132 5415 6452 7819 8044 8819 9813 10626 9406 9930 40-44 4002 4022 5279 6304 7658 7899 8681 9683 10511 9327 45-49 3537 3871 3897 5126 6137 7476 M2 8521 9532 10375 50-54 2722 3384 3710 3744 4939 5933 7253 7526 8322 9340 55-59 2530 2558 3188 3505 3550 4704 5676 6969 7264 8068 60-64 1714 2309 2342 2929 3236 3298 4397 5339 6595 6916 65-69 1370 1490 2015 2053 2584 2881 2962 3984 4879 6080 70-74 969 1099 1200 1634 1678 2138 2413 2511 3419 4237 75' 1031 1146 1297 1451 1849 2107 2614 3122 3513 4485 TOTAL 82595 89506 96668 103592 110120 116482 122714 128656 134277 139573 BIRTH RATE 26.8 25.1 22.9 20.7 19.5 18.5 17.4 16.4 15.5 DEATH RATE 10.3 9.6 8.9 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.65 1.55 1.40 1.23 1.13 1.04 .94 .85 .76 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.65 1.55 1.39 1.23 1.13 1.04 .94 .85 .76 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.314 2.926 2.616 2.339 2.236 2.205 2.175 2.145 2.116 NRR 1.335 1.229 1.126 1.031 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.O(a 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 58.24 59.97 61.87 63.87 65.41 67.02 68.69 70.42 72.22 e(15) BOTH SEXES 51.90 52.52 53.24 54.09 55.07 56.09 57.15 58.25 59.40 INR - BOTH SEXES 82.0 71.8 61.2 51.1 45.2 39.3 33.3 27.4 21.5 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .1153 .0993 .0828 .0669 .0587 .0505 .0423 .0340 .0257 DEP. RATIO 75.2 67.7 60.7 53.2 50.5 47.9 45.6 45.5 45.8 46.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 95 Sumnary Projection for 25-Year Perfods INIONESIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 164130 206473 267584 309497 328601 341014 349607 353878 MALES 0-4 12076 10796 10592 10660 10662 10644 10640 10638 5-9 11028 10615 10594 10633 10648 10634 10631 10630 10-14 9591 10340 10577 10585 10633 10630 10630 10629 15-19 7732 11501 10435 10501 10610 10623 10624 10623 20-24 7482 10662 10268 10396 10581 10604 10603 10605 25-29 6670 9188 10343 10383 10536 10570 10572 10575 30-34 5924 7334 10193 10368 10475 10527 10537 10544 35-39 4063 7037 9830 10302 10380 10473 10500 10512 40-44 3874. 6201 10787 10095 10238 10401 10452 10470 45-49 3476 5398 9823 9831 10058 10312 10382 10404 50-54 2535 3582 8221 9712 9903 10157 10256 10290 55-59 2555 3242 6242 9247 9644 9910 10059 10117 60-64 1632 2686 5521 8425 9203 9536 9773 9870 65-69 1254 1732 4283 8432 8450 8979 9355 9502 70-74 825 1446 3051 6614 7405 8180 8736 8941 75. 818 1119 2547 7434 12942 16242 18822 20123 TOTAL 81535 102881 133307 153618 162365 168419 172570 174474 FEMALES 0-4 11569 10431 10195 10176 10161 10146 10143 10141 5-9 10496 10297 10225 10176 10150 10138 10137 10136 10-14 9428 9786 10228 10157 10137 10135 10136 10136 15-19 8572 11067 10114 10112 10122 10133 10135 10135 20-24 8260 10184 9986 10062 10114 10132 10131 10131 25-29 6723 9080 10100 10095 10121 10126 10124 10125 30-34 5540 8182 9988 10120 10112 10109 10113 10117 35-39 4132 7819 9406 10090 10071 10080 10098 10108 40-44 4002 6304 10511 9927 9995 10045 10081 10095 45-49 3537 5126 9532 9724 9899 10006 10058 10074 50-54 2722 3744 8322 9711 9852 9960 10016 10041 55-59 2530 3505 7264 9411 9752 9871 9946 9988 60-64 1714 2929 6595 8585 9536 9715 9841 9915 65-69 1370 2053 4879 9106 9097 9468 9694 9811 70-74 969 1634 3419 7541 8451 9092 9472 9645 75. 1031 1451 3513 10885 18668 23437 26911 28806 TOTAL 82595 103592 134277 155879 166236 172594 177036 179404 BIRTH RATE 24.8 18 4 14.6 13.: 12.5 12.1 11.8 DEATH RATE 9.6 8.1 8.3 10.7 11.0 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.53 1.04 .58 .24 .15 .10 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.922 2.218 2.100 2.074 2.066 2.060 2.059 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 60.12 67.25 74.52 79.14 81.98 84.19 85.04 IMR - BOTH SEXES 71.7 39.3 15.1 5.0 3.5 2.4 2.2 96 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRIORIES JAPAN Projection (thousands) with NRR1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 120754 123519 125710 127591 129215 12996 129823 128954 127740 126305 MALES 0-4 3816 3495 3388 3427 3514 3451 3337 3278 3315 3410 5-9 4370 3811 3490 3384 3423 3511 3447 3334 3275 3313 10-14 5144 4366 3808 3488 3383 3422 3510 3446 3333 3275 15-19 4597 5134 4359 3803 3484 3379 3419 3506 3443 3330 20-24 4163 4579 5116 4346 3792 3475 3370 3410 3498 3436 25-29 3945 4143 455T 5093 4327 377 3461 3358 3398 3486 30-34 4555 3925 4122 4537 s073 4310 3762 349 3346 3387 35-39 5394 4528 3904 4102 4516 5os1 4292 3747 3436 3334 40-44 4549 5350 4494 3876 407S 4487 5020 4267 3727 3418 45-49 4089 4490 S287 4446 3 4036 4447 4977 4233 3699 50-54 3923 4002 4402 S190 4370 377S 3973 4381 4907 4176 55-59 3407 3790 3879 4277 5054 4261 3685 3883 4287 4808 60-64 2378 3229 3612 3715 4113 4870 4113 3565 3764 4163 65-69 1780 2183 2991 3375 3495 3882 4611 3907 3396 3597 70-74 1503 1549 1928 2680 3060 3185 3556 4244 3614 3158 75+ 1814 2200 2499 3025 4042 5049 5769 6520 7634 7871 TOTAL 59428 60771 61838 62766 63SS9 63919 63771 63273 62607 61861 FEMALES 0-4 3627 3333 3230 3267 3350 3289 3181 3125 3160 3250 5-9 4145 3623 3329 3228 326 3347 3287 3179 3123 3158 10-14 4879 4143 3622 3328 322 3264 3347 3286 3178 3123 15-19 4365 4874 4140 3620 3327 3225 3262 3346 3285 3177 20-24 4021 4358 4868 4136 3616 3324 3223 3260 3343 3283 25-29 3862 4014 4351 4861 4130 3611 3320 3219 3257 3340 30-34 4480 3853 4005 4343 452 4123 3606 3315 3215 3253 35-39 5322 4467 3842 3996 4333 4842 4115 3600 3310 3210 40-44 4567 5297 4448 382 3983 4320 429 4105 3591 3303 45-49 4130 4534 5264 4423 3809 3964 4302 4810 4090 3580 50-54 3993 4084 4489 5216 4388 3780 3937 4274 4782 4068 55-59 3578 3926 4023 4429 S154 4339 3742 3900 4237 4745 60-64 3015 3486 3837 3944 43S4 5073 4276 3692 3853 4192 65-69 2403 2892 3363 3721 3841 4250 4962 4190 3626 3791 70-74 2053 2237 2719 3191 3560 3688 4094 4796 4065 3529 75+ 2886 3628 4341 5295 66 7637 8571 9584 11017 11441 TOTAL 61326 62748 63872 64826 65656 66077 66051 65681 65132 64444 Bi IH RATE 11.3 10.7 10.6 10.8 10.S 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.5 DEATH RATE 6.7 7.2 7.7 8.2 9.2 10.4 11.3 12.0 12.8 RATE OF NAT. INC. .45 .35 .30 .25 .12 -.03 -.13 -.19 -.23 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .45 .35 .30 .25 .12 *.03 -.13 -.19 -.23 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.680 1.550 1.550 1.640 1.726 1.808 1.886 1.961 2.033 NRR .810 .749 .749 .m93 .835 .875 .914 .951 .986 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 78.20 79.24 80.23 81.10 1.S5 82.05 82.55 83.05 83.57 eciS) - BOTH SEXES 63.81 64.78 6S.72 66.S6 67.01 67.47 67.93 68.41 68.91 IMR - BOTH SEXES 5.0 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.S 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.6 qtS) - BOTH SEXES .0067 .0059 .0055 .00S1 .0049 .0046 .0044 .0041 .0038 DEP. RATIO 46.7 43.5 44.5 48.0 S2.8 S5.S 66.1 69.5 70.3 72.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 97 Soumary Projection for 25-Year Periods JAPAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 120754 127591 127740 119658 113331 112987 113461 113730 MALES 0-4 3816 3427 3315 3342 3363 3371 3371 3370 5-9 4370 3384 3275 3347 3371 3372 3369 3368 10-14 5144 3488 3333 3385 3383 3372 3367 3367 15-19 4597 3803 3443 3426 3379 3365 3364 3365 20-24 4163 4346 3498 3397 3352 3352 3358 3360 25-29 3945 5093 3398 3293 3322 3344 3352 3353 30-34 4555 4537 3346 3245 3319 3345 3347 3345 35-39 5394 4102 3436 3292 3347 3348 3339 3335 40-44 4549 3876 3727 3387 3376 3333 3321 3321 45-49 4089 4446 4233 3424 3333 3293 3296 3303 50-54 3923 5190 4907 3296 3205 3239 3265 3275 55-59 3407 4277 4287 3196 3115 3195 3227 3231 60-64 2378 3715 3764 3204 3093 3160 3169 3165 65-69 1780 3375 3396 3349 3078 3089 3063 3058 70-74 1503 2680 3614 3581 2947 2899 2884 2896 75+ 1814 3025 7634 8436 6698 6546 6754 6860 TOTAL 59428 62766 62607 58601 55681 55623 55846 55973 FEMALES 0-4 3627 3267 3160 3186 3206 3213 3214 3213 5-9 4145 3228 3123 3191 3215 3215 3213 3211 10-14 4879 3328 3178 3227 3226 3215 3211 3211 15-19 4365 3620 3285 3268 3223 3210 3209 3210 20-24 4021 4136 3343 3246 3202 3203 3208 3210 25-29 3862 4861 3257 3154 3181 3201 3209 3210 30-34 4480 4343 3215 3115 3185 3210 3211 3209 35-39 5322 3996 3310 3166 3218 3219 3209 3206 40-44 4567 3828 3591 3268 3255 3213 3201 3201 45-49 4130 4423 4090 3319 3228 3188 3190 3196 50-54 3993 5216 4782 3221 3127 3159 3183 3192 55-59 3578 4429 4237 3162 3076 3153 3182 3185 60-64 3015 3944 3853 3230 3108 3170 3177 3171 65-69 2403 3721 3626 3463 3179 3183 3152 3145 70-74 2053 3191 4065 3868 3181 3119 3095 3105 75+ 2886 5295 11017 11974 9840 9493 9750 9882 TOTAL 61326 64826 65132 61058 57650 57364 57614 57757 BIRTH RATE 10.9 10.3 10.7 11.4 11.7 11.6 11.6 DEATH RATE 7.2 1C.2 13.3 13.6 11. 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .37 .00 -.26 -.22 -.01 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.578 1.794 2.055 2.059 2.058 2.057 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 79.24 82.06 84.06 85.05 85.61 86.01 86.18 IMR - BOTH SEXES 4.4 3.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 98 COUNIRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TEPRrTORIES KIIATI Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2020 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 64 70 77 84 90 97 103 110 116 122 MALES 0-4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5-9 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 10-14 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 15-19 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20-24 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 25-29 2 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 30-34 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 35-39 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 40-44 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 45-49 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 50-54 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 55-59 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 60-64 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 65-69 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 70-74 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 75+ 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 TOTAL 32 35 39 42 46 49 52 55 58 62 FEMALES 0-4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5-9 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10-14 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 15-19 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 20-24 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 25-29 2 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 30-34 2 2 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 35-39 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 40-44 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 5 45-49 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 50-54 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 55-59 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 2 60-64 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 70-74 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 75+ 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 TOTAL 32 35 38 42 45 48 51 54 58 61 BIRTH RATE 35.0 32.4 29.1 26.1 23.5 21.7 19.7 18.8 18.0 DEATH RATE 12.2 11.2 10.2 9.3 8.8 8.2 7.7 7.4 7.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.28 2.13 1.89 1.68 1.47 1.35 1.20 1.14 1.07 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.9 -3.0 -2.2 -1.6 -1.1 -.6 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.89 1.83 1.67 1.52 1.37 1.29 1.20 1.14 1.07 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.400 4.050 3.700 3.350 2.950 2.598 2.288 2.174 2.144 NRR 1.751 1.663 1.565 1.456 1.302 1.162 1.038 1.000 1.000 eCO) - 80TH SEXES 53.92 55.97 58.17 60.45 62.08 63.79 65.59 67.47 69.45 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 46.05 47.10 48.25 49.58 51.03 52.54 54.13 55.79 57.54 IMR - BOTH SEXES 62.0 5'.4 44.6 36.7 35.6 34.5 33.4 32.3 31.2 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0954 .0802 .0649 .0507 .0482 .0456 .0430 .0404 .0378 DEP. RATIO 72.5 75.5 76.4 73.7 66.0 57.9 53.9 49.8 46.4 45.4 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES 99 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods KIRIBATI AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 64 84 116 144 160 167 172 175 MALES 0-4 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5-9 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 10-14 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 15-19 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20-24 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 25-29 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 30-34 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 35-39 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 40-44 1 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 45-49 1 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 50-54 1 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 55-59 1 1 3 4 5 5 5 5 60-64 0 1 2 4 4 5 5 5 65-69 0 1 1 3 4 4 5 5 70-74 0 1 1 2 4 4 4 4 75+ 0 0 1 2 5 7 9 10 TOTAL 32 42 58 72 79 82 85 86 FEMALES 0-4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5-9 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10-14 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 15-19 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 20-24 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 25-29 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 30-34 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 35-39 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 4-44 1 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 45-49 1 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 50-54 1 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 55-59 1 1 3 5 5 5 5 5 60-64 1 1 2 4 5 5 5 5 65-69 1 1 1 3 4 5 5 5 70-74 0 1 1 3 4 5 5 5 75+ 0 1 1 3 8 11 13 14 TOTAL 32 42 58 72 81 85 87 89 BIRTH RATE 32.0 21.7 16.2 13.6 12.7 12.2 11.9 DEATH RATE 11.1 8.2 7.7 9.5 10.9 10.9 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.0 -.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.80 1.30 .86 .41 .19 .12 .06 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.033 2.616 2.120 2.079 2.068 2.061 2.059 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 56.15 64.10 72.13 77.46 80.92 83.67 84.70 INR - BOTH SEXES 53.3 34.5 22.1 7.2 4.4 2.6 2.3 100 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES KOREA, DEM. PEOPLE'S REP. OF Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 1995 AGE GROIP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 19888 21576 23496 25363 27073 28581 29981 31351 32669 33872 MALES 0-4 977 1112 1239 1228 1172 1116 1114 1150 1180 1178 5-9 979 971 1106 1233 1223 1168 1113 1111 1148 1178 10-14 1337 976 968 1103 1230 1220 1166 1111 1110 1147 15-19 1446 1330 971 965 1100 1227 1217 1163 1109 1108 20-24 1049 1433 1320 965 959 1094 1221 1212 1159 1105 25-29 951 1037 1420 1310 959 954 1088 1214 1205 1153 30-34 722 939 1027 1408 1302 953 948 1082 1208 1199 35-39 583 712 928 1017 1397 1292 947 942 1075 1201 40-44 482 572 700 915 1005 1381 1279 938 934 1067 45-49 402 468 558 685 898 988 1360 1260 925 922 50-54 304 385 450 539 665 873 962 1327 1232 906 55-59 211 285 362 426 513 635 837 925 1280 1193 60-64 136 191 259 331 394 477 593 786 875 1217 65-69 122 116 164 225 292 350 428 538 719 807 70-74 77 96 92 132 185 243 295 366 466 631 75+ 65 83 106 116 152 215 298 390 503 658 TOTAL 9843 10704 11670 12599 13445 14186 14865 15515 16128 16673 FEMALES 0-4 950 1069 1190 1178 1123 1069 1066 1100 1127 1125 5-9 956 946 1065 1186 1175 1121 1067 1064 1098 1126 10-14 1306 954 944 1063 1185 1173 1120 1066 1064 1098 15-19 1410 1303 952 943 1062 1183 1172 1119 1065 1063 20-24 1028 1406 1300 950 941 1060 1182 1171 1118 1064 25-29 921 1023 1402 1297 948 939 1058 1180 1169 1116 30-34 656 916 1020 1398 1294 946 937 1056 1177 1167 35-39 528 651 912 1016 1393 1289 943 935 1054 1175 40-44 438 522 646 906 1010 1386 1284 940 931 1050 45-49 399 431 516 640 899 1003 1377 1276 934 926 50-54 348 390 424 509 632 888 992 1363 1264 926 55-59 339 336 380 414 499 621 874 977 1344 1248 60-64 267 321 322 366 402 486 606 854 957 1320 65-69 199 244 299 304 349 385 467 585 828 931 70-74 139 170 215 270 280 324 360 439 554 789 75+ 160 189 241 324 435 519 612 713 858 1074 TOTAL 10045 10872 11827 12763 13628 14395 15117 15836 16542 1719? BIRTH RATE 21.7 22.2 20.1 17.8 16.0 15.1 14.8 14.5 13.9 DEATH RATE 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.63 1.71 1.53 1.31 1.08 .96 .89 .82 .72 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.63 1.70 1.53 1.30 1.08 .96 .89 .82 .72 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.500 2.216 2.111 2.101 2.094 2.088 2.081 2.074 2.068 NRR 1.165 1.043 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.36 71.30 73.11 74.76 75.69 76.65 77.66 78.70 79.78 e05) - BOTH SEXES 57.11 58.73 60.21 61.55 62.24 62.96 63.71 64.50 65.33 INR - BOTH SEXES 28.0 24.3 20.3 16.8 14.3 11.8 9.3 6.9 4.4 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0336 .0291 .0244 .0202 .0174 .0145 .0117 .0088 .0060 DEP. RATIO 57.6 47.3 48.1 49.2 48.2 45.3 43.6 44.3 48.4 53.1 COUNTIERS, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 101 Sumary Projection for 25-Year Perfods KOREA, DEM. PEOPLE'S REP. OF AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 19888 25363 32669 36612 37722 38310 38695 38889 MALES 0-4 977 1228 1180 1157 1155 1156 1157 1157 5-9 979 1233 1148 1145 1152 1156 1157 1157 10-14 1337 1103 liO 1142 1156 1158 1157 1156 15-19 1446 965 1109 1155 1161 1158 1156 1155 20-24 1049 965 1159 1172 1160 1154 1153 1153 25-29 951 1310 1205 1167 1148 1147 1149 1151 30-34 722 1408 1208 1132 1133 1142 1147 1148 35-39 583 1017 1075 1090 1126 1142 1145 1145 40-44 482 915 934 1083 1133 1142 1141 1140 45-49 402 685 925 1123 1143 1136 1133 1133 50-54 304 539 1232 1153 1126 1115 1117 1121 55-59 211 426 1280 1129 1073 1083 1097 1104 60-64 136 331 875 970 1004 1052 1075 1082 65-69 122 225 719 795 955 1020 1040 1045 70-74 77 132 466 718 924 969 981 987 75+ 65 116 503 1718 1928 2079 2211 2285 TOTAL 9843 12599 16128 l1751 18477 18808 19015 19120 FEHALES 0-4 950 1178 1127 1104 1101 1102 1103 1103 5-9 956 1186 1098 1093 1099 1102 1103 1103 10-14 1306 1063 1064 1091 1102 1104 1103 1103 15-19 1410 943 1065 1104 1108 1105 1103 1102 20-24 1028 950 1118 1122 1109 1103 1102 1102 25-29 921 1297 1169 1123 1101 1099 1101 1102 30-34 656 1398 1177 1094 1090 1097 1101 1102 35-39 528 1016 1054 1057 1086 1099 1102 1101 40-44 438 906 931 1057 1098 1103 1101 1100 45-49 399 640 934 1105 1113 1102 1098 1097 50-54 348- S09 1264 1149 1109 1092 1091 1094 55-59 339 414 1344 1148 1074 1076 1086 1091 60-64 267 366 957 1014 1030 1065 1083 1087 65-69 199 304 828 80 1016 1067 1079 1080 70-74 139 270 554 855 1040 1065 1065 1065 75+ 160 324 858 2766 2968 3122 3260 3338 TOTAL 10045 12763 16542 18761 19245 19503 19679 19769 BIRTH RATE 21.3 15.6 13;0 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.1 5.6 8.5 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.62 1.01 .S6 .12 .06 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.236 2.088 2.065 2.061 2.059 2.058 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 71.36 76.79 80.98 83.29 84.54 85.47 85.83 INR - BOTH SEXES 24.1 11.8 3.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 102 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES KOREA, REP. OF Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 40806 42797 44746 46642 48460 50026 51346 52487 53526 54505 MALES 0-4 1943 1711 1745 1759 1750 1698 1652 1643 1667 1701 5-9 2063 1927 1696 1732 1747 1740 1690 1646 1639 1665 10-14 2358 2051 1916 1686 1723 1740 1735 1686 1643 1638 15-19 2270 2340 2036 1902 1675 1714 1733 1729 1681 1640 20-24 2209 2238 2311 2012 1883 1660 1701 1722 1720 1675 25-29 2044 2169 2202 2279 1988 1862 1644 1687 1711 1712 30-34 1621 2005 2133 2171 2253 1967 1845 1630 1676 1702 35-39 1340 1586 1969 2101 2146 2230 1949 1830 1619 1667 40-44 1129 1305 1551 1934 2071 2117 2204 1928 1814 1607 45-49 1081 1091 1266 1512 1894 2032 2081 2170 1902 1792 50-54 826 1030 1044 1219 1464 1838 1977 2030 2122 1864 55-59 575 769 964 984 1158 1396 1760 1901 1960 2056 60-64 456 516 696 880 907 1074 1304 1655 1799 1866 65-69 309 387 442 603 774 805 964 1182 1516 1664 70-74 197 241 305 354 491 640 677 823 1026 1336 75+ 156 206 262 339 422 57', 788 952 1171 1490 TOTAL 20576 21573 22540 23468 24346 25090 25702 26214 26665 27077 FEMALES 0-4 1775 1641 1671 1682 1672 1621 1577 1568 1590 1622 5-9 1913 1763 1629 1660 1672 1664 1615 1572 1565 1589 10-14 2177 1905 1754 1621 1653 1667 1659 1611 1570 1 54 15-19 2078 2165 1893 1744 1612 1646 1661 1655 1609 1 X9 20-24 2047 2057 2143 1874 1727 1599 1635 1653 1650 1607 25-29 2050 2021 2030 2119 1854 1712 1587 1626 1647 1648 30-34 1532 2024 1996 2009 2101 1840 1700 1578 1620 1644 35-39 1255 1511 2001 1976 1992 208L 1828 1691 1572 1616 40-44 1100 1236 1491 1980 1959 1976 2072 1817 1683 1566 45-49 1051 1079 1215 1470 1957 1938 1957 2054 1804 1673 50-54 890 1023 1054 1191 1444 1926 1910 1933 2032 1787 55-5° 704 855 988 1022 1160 1411 1886 1874 1901 2002 60-64 570 662 810 942 982 1118 1365 1831 1827 1860 65-69 413 516 605 749 882 925 1060 1302 1758 1766 70-74 307 349 442 528 667 795 843 977 1215 1658 75+ 368 419 484 608 780 1015 1290 1529 1819 2260 TOTAL 20230 21224 22206 23175 24115 24936 25644 26273 26861 27428 BIRTH RATE 16.4 15.9 15.3 14.6 13.6 12.9 12.5 12.4 12.4 DEATH RATE 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.9 8.4 8.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.03 .97 .91 .83 .68 .56 .46 .40 .36 NET MIGRATION RATE -.7 -.8 -.8 -.6 -.5 -.3 -.2 -1 .0 GROWTH RATE .95 .89 .83 .76 .64 .52 .44 .39 .36 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.800 1.750 1.750 1.804 1.856 1.907 1.956 2.004 2.051 NRR .846 .830 .835 .863 .890 .916 .941 .966 .990 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.26 70.84 72.42 73.98 74.93 75.93 76.99 78.11 79.29 etIS) - BOTH SEXES 56.24 57.41 58.73 60.09 60.94 61.83 62.78 63.79 64.86 INR - BOTH SEXES 20.0 15.2 12.1 9.8 8.8 7.7 6.7 5.6 4.6 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0240 .0185 .0149 .0123 .0111 .0098 .0086 .0074 .0062 DEP. RATIO 52.1 44.2 40.7 40.0 41.6 42.4 43.4 45.8 51.4 57.7 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 103 Sunmary Projectlon for 25-Year Periods KOREA, REP. OF AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 40806 46642 53526 55421 54799 55406 56005 56--19 MALES 0-4 1943 1759 1667 1667 1673 1676 1677 1677 5-9 2063 1732 1639 1664 1675 1677 1676 1675 10-14 2358 1686 1643 1677 1681 1677 1676 1675 15-19 2270 1902 1681 1696 1681 1675 1674 1674 20-24 2209 2012 1720 1691 1670 1668 1670 1671 25-29 2044 2279 1711 1650 1654 1662 1666 1668 30-34 1621 2171 1676 1617 1647 1661 1663 1663 35-39 1340 2101 1619 1614 1653 1661 1659 1658 40-44 1129 1934 1814 1642 1665 1655 1651 1651 45-49 1081 1512 1902 1669 1650 1636 1638 1641 50-54 826 1219 2122 1638 1593 1606 1619 1626 55-59 575 984 1960 1569 1533 1575 1596 1603 60-64 456 880 1799 1464 1489 1545 1564 1568 65-69 309 603 1516 1551 1452 1500 1508 1513 70-74 197 354 1026 1486 1377 1402 1415 1429 75+ 156 339 1171 2998 2871 3007 3215 3324 TOTAL 20576 23468 26665 27294 26966 27283 27567 27717 FE1ALES 0-4 1775 1682 1590 1589 1595 1598 1599 1598 5-9 1913 1660 1565 1587 1598 1599 1598 1598 10-14 2177 1621 1570 1599 1603 1600 1598 1597 15-19 2078 1744 1609 1619 1604 1598 1597 1597 20-24 2047 1874 1650 1617 1596 1594 1596 1597 25-29 2050 2119 1647 1584 1585 1592 1596 1596 30-34 1532 2009 1620 1557 1582 1594 1596 1596 35-39 1255 1976 1572 1559 1592 1598 1596 1594 40-44 1100 1980 1683 1594 1608 1597 1592 1592 45-49 1051 1470 1804 1629 1602 1586 1586 1589 50-54 890 1191 2032 1615 1562 1570 1580 1586 55-59 704 1022 1901 1573 1525 1559 1577 1581 60-64 570 942 1827 1504 1512 1558 1572 1574 65-69 413 749 1758 1574 1523 1558 1559 1560 70-74 307 528 1215 1625 1519 1525 1528 1537 75+ 368 608 1819 4303 4226 4398 4669 4809 TOTAL 20230 23175 26861 28127 27833 28123 28438 28602 BIRTH RATE 15.9 13.2 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.2 7.4 10.6 12.4 11.5 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.8 -.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .89 .55 .14 -.05 .04 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.767 1.901 2.064 2.062 2.060 2.058 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 70.88 76.04 80.54 83.03 84.38 85.38 85.79 IMR BOTH SEXES 15.8 7.8 3.9 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 104 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES LAO PEM k.,/E'S DEM. REP. Projection (thousands) ufth NRRI by 2040 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 3594 4186 4883 5660 6491 7394 8375 9403 10417 11422 MALES 0-4 314 405 472 521 558 601 647 676 672 669 5-9 248 291 380 448 500 538 582 629 661 661 10-14 212 241 284 373 440 493 5S1 576 624 657 15-19 184 207 236 278 366 433 486 524 570 619 20-24 161 178 200 229 271 357 424 477 517 564 25-29 140 154 171 193 221 262 347 414 468 509 30-34 116 134 148 164 186 213 254 339 406 461 35-39 97 111 128 141 157 179 207 247 331 399 40-44 84 92 105 121 135 150 172 200 240 323 45-49 70 79 86 98 114 128 143 165 192 233 50-54 53 65 73 80 91 107 120 135 156 183 55-59 45 48 58 66 72 83 98 110 125 145 60-64 33 39 42 51 57 64 74 87 98 112 65-69 23 27 32 34 42 48 53 62 73 83 70-74 14 17 20 24 26 32 36 40 47 57 75+ 10 13 16 20 24 27 32 38 44 52 TOTAL 1803 2100 2451 2841 3259 3712 4204 4719 5226 5727 FEMALES 0-4 308 394 458 505 539 581 625 654 651 648 5-9 243 286 372 437 487 522 565 611 642 642 10-14 209 237 280 365 430 480 516 560 607 639 15-19 181 205 232 275 359 424 474 511 556 604 20-24 158 176 199 226 268 352 417 468 505 551 25-29 137 153 171 193 220 262 344 409 461 500 30-34 115 132 147 165 187 214 25S 337 403 455 35-39 94 110 127 142 159 181 208 249 330 397 40-44 80 90 105 121 136 153 175 202 243 324 45-49 68 76 85 100 115 130 147 169 196 237 50-54 57 64 71 80 94 109 124 140 162 189 5r-59 47 53 59 66 74 88 102 116 133 154 60-64 36 42 47 53 59 67 80 93 107 123 65-69 26 30 35 40 45 51 S8 70 82 95 70-74 17 20 23 27 31 35 40 47 57 68 75+ 13 17 21 25 30 35 41 48 56 69 TOTAL 1791 2086 2433 2819 3232 3681 4170 4683 5191 5695 BIRTH RATE 47.8 46.7 43.5 39.6 37.1 35.0 32.2 28.6 25.6 DEATH RATE 17.1 15.8 14.0 12.2 11.1 10.1 9.0 8.1 7.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.07 3.09 2.95 2.74 2.60 2.49 2.32 2.05 1.84 NET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.05 3.08 2.95 2.74 2.60 2.49 2.32 2.05 1.84 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.690 6.690 6.390 5.790 5.190 4.590 3.990 3.390 2.972 NRR 2.348 2.438 2.4;6 2.270 2.085 1.890 1.684 1.465 1 316 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 48.46 50.15 52.10 54.23 56.05 57.9S 59.94 62.02 64.19 e05) - BOTH SEXES 46.93 46.97 47.28 47.85 49.10 50.39 51.74 53.14 54.60 IMR - BOTH SEXES 110.0 97.6 84.7 72.3 68.3 64.3 60.3 56.4 52.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1829 .1596 .1359 .1135 .1047 .095 .0869 .0779 .0689 DEP. RATIO 83.6 89.7 96.1 99.1 94.3 87.0 80.2 74.4 68.0 61.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 105 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods LAO PEOPLE'S DEM. REP. AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 3594 5660 10417 14948 18311 20027 20825 21270 MALES 0-4 314 521 672 649 643 646 647 648 5-9 248 448 661 626 637 645 648 647 10-14 212 373 624 614 638 646 648 647 15-19 184 278 570 638 643 646 647 647 20-24 161 229 517 649 644 642 645 645 25-29 140 193 468 643 636 634 641 643 30-3L 116 164 406 635 613 627 638 642 35-39 97 141 331 594 598 625 637 640 40-44 84 121 240 536 616 627 634 637 45-49 70 98 192 477 620 623 626 631 50-54 53 80 156 420 603 606 611 621 55-59 45 66 125 347 574 570 593 609 60-64 33 51 98 260 506 535 575 593 65-69 23 34 73 167 415 518 551 569 70-74 14 24 47 109 318 472 509 528 75+ 10 20 44 107 384 812 1008 1133 TOTAL 1803 2841 5226 7472 9088 9875 10258 10479 FEMALES 0-4 308 505 651 686 617 616 617 617 5-9 243 437 642 606 613 616 617 617 10-14 209 365 607 596 615 618 618 617 15-19 181 275 556 621 622 620 618 617 20-24 158 226 505 634 625 618 616 616 25-29 137 193 461 631 620 613 614 616 30-34 115 165 403 625 600 609 614 616 35-39 94 142 330 586 588 610 615 616 40-44 80 121 243 531 609 615 615 614 45-49 68 100 196 476 618 615 612 611 50-54 57 80 162 426 606 605 604 608 55-59 47 66 133 361 588 578 595 604 60-64 36 53 107 282 533 556 589 600 65-69 26 40 82 191 457 559 584 593 70-74 17 27 57 133 373 539 568 578 75+ 13 25 56 152 540 1166 1473 1651 TOTAL 1791 2819 5191 7475 9223 10152 10567 10791 BIRTH RATE 45.8 33.8 20.8 15.4 13.3 12.4 12.1 DEATH RATE 15.5 9.8 6.6 7.3 9.7 10.8 11.2 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.03 2.44 1.44 .81 .36 .16 .08 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.579 4.393 2.404 2.101 2.078 2.064 2.061 e(0) - BOTH SEXES 50.42 58.51 67.60 74.14 78.72 82.48 83.95 IMR - BOTH SEXES 96.6 64.0 40.0 17.2 8.5 3.0 2.5 106 COUJNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES MACAO Projection (thowands) with NRR-1 by 1990 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 392 459 503 535 556 575 594 613 630 641 MALES 0-4 16 22 21 20 19 19 20 21 21 20 5-9 15 18 23 21 20 19 19 20 21 21 10-14 15 17 18 24 21 20 19 19 20 21 15-19 16 17 17 19 24 21 20 19 19 20 20-24 21 20 19 18 18 23 21 20 19 19 25-29 23 27 23 20 18 18 23 21 20 19 30-34 20 28 29 24 20 18 18 23 21 19 35-39 17 23 29 29 23 20 18 18 23 21 40-44 10 19 24 29 29 23 19 18 18 23 45-49 10 11 19 24 29 29 23 19 17 18 50-54 10 11 11 19 23 28 28 22 19 17 55-59 10 10 10 11 18 22 27 27 22 18 60-64 8 9 9 9 10 17 21 26 26 21 65-69 6 6 8 8 8 9 16 20 24 25 70-74 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 14 18 22 75+ 3 4 5 7 8 10 11 13 18 25 TOTAL 205 245 270 287 296 304 313 320 326 329 FEMALES 0-4 15 22 20 19 18 19 20 20 20 19 5-9 14 17 23 20 19 18 19 20 20 20 10-14 14 16 18 23 20 19 18 19 20 20 15-19 15 15 16 18 23 20 19 18 19 20 20-24 20 17 16 17 18 23 20 19 18 19 25-29 21 22 18 17 17 18 23 20 19 18 30-34 17 22 23 19 17 16 18 23 20 19 35-39 14 18 23 23 19 17 16 18 23 20 40-44 8 14 18 23 23 19 17 16 18 23 45-49 8 8 14 18 23 23 18 16 16 18 50-54 9 8 8 14 18 22 22 18 16 16 55-59 9 8 8 8 14 17 22 22 18 16 60-64 7 8 8 7 7 13 17 21 22 18 65-69 6 7 8 8 7 7 13 16 21 21 70-74 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 12 16 20 75+ 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 14 20 27 TOTAL 187 214 233 248 259 270 282 293 304 312 BIRTH RATE 19.9 16.7 14.9 13.7 13.6 13.8 13.6 13.0 12.4 DEATH RATE 8.1 7.0 6.5 6.3 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.7 8.8 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.17 .97 .84 .74 .68 .67 .63 .53 .36 NET MIGRATION RATE 19.8 8.7 4.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.15 1.84 1.24 .74 .68 .67 .63 .53 .;5 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.200 2.091 2.085 2.080 2.078 2.075 2.072 2.070 2.067 NRR 1.045 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 70.84 73.12 75.10 76.77 77.56 78.39 79.25 80.15 81.08 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 57.14 59.22 61.04 62.60 63.32 64.07 64.85 65.67 66.53 IHR - BOTH SEXES 12.0 9.8 8.1 6.9 6.2 5.6 4.9 4.3 3.6 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0148 .0122 .0103 .0089 .0081 .0073 .0066 .0058 .0050 DEP. RATIO 44.4 46.1 47.5 47.1 42.7 40.7 44.3 51.1 60.5 68.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITIORIES 107 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods MACAO AGE GRWOP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 392 535 630 649 661 671 676 679 MALES 0-4 16 20 21 20 20 20 20 20 5-9 15 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 10-14 15 24 20 20 20 20 20 20 15-19 16 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20-24 21 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 25-29 23 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 30-34 20 24 21 21 20 20 20 20 35-39 17 29 23 20 20 20 20 20 40-44 10 29 18 19 19 20 20 20 45-49 10 24 17 18 20 20 20 20 50-54 10 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 55-59 10 11 22 20 20 19 19 19 60-64 8 9 26 21 19 19 19 19 65-69 6 8 24 16 17 18 18 18 70-74 4 6 18 14 15 17 17 17 75+ 3 7 18 35 36 38 40 40 TOTAL 205 287 326 324 326 331 333 334 FEMALES 0-4 15 19 20 19 19 19 19 19 5-9 14 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 10-14 14 23 20 19 19 19 19 19 15-19 15 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 20-24 20 17 18 19 19 19 19 19 25-29 21 17 19 20 19 19 19 19 30-34 17 19 20 20 19 19 19 19 35-39 14 23 23 19 19 19 19 19 40-44 8 23 18 18 19 19 19 19 45-49 8 18 16 18 19 19 19 19 30-54 9 14 16 19 19 19 19 19 55-59 9 8 18 20 19 19 19 19 60-64 7 7 22 22 19 19 19 19 65-69 6 8 21 17 18 18 19 19 70-74 5 7 16 15 17 18 19 19 75+ 6 9 20 43 51 55 57 58 TOTAL 187 248 304 325 335 340 343 345 BIRTH RATE 17.0 13.5 12.2 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.1 7.1 11.0 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 10.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.08 .65 .12 .07 .06 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.130 2.075 2.065 2.061 2.059 2.058 2.057 elO) - BOTH SEXES 73.16 78.48 82.02 83.86 84.88 85.64 85.94 IMR - BOTH SEXES 10.0 5.6 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 108 COUnNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES ML4AYSIA Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2015 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 15682 17857 20134 22340 24429 26429 28300 30151 32001 33778 MALES 0-4 1233 1338 1394 1370 1329 1311 1279 1303 1341 1342 5-9 942 1226 1332 1389 1366 1325 1308 1276 1300 1339 10-14 933 938 1222 1328 1386 1363 1323 1306 1275 1300 15-19 854 927 933 1217 1323 1381 1359 1319 1304 1273 20-24 770 844 919 926 1208 1315 1374 1353 1314 1299 25-29 646 759 835 910 918 1200 1307 1366 1345 1308 30-34 543 636 750 826 902 911 1191 1298 1358 1339 35-39 455 534 628 742 819 894 904 1183 1291 1351 40-44 349 446 525 619 732 809 885 895 1173 1281 45-49 320 339 435 513 606 719 796 872 883 1159 50-54 231 306 326 419 497 588 699 776 852 866 55-59 198 216 288 307 397 472 562 671 749 826 60-64 144 179 196 262 281 367 440 527 635 713 65-69 113 123 154 170 230 250 329 399 483 587 70-74 74 88 97 124 139 191 211 282 347 426 75+ 89 89 100 116 148 181 241 296 386 501 TOTAL 7893 8986 10131 11237 12282 13278 14207 15122 16036 16909 FEMALES 0-4 1166 1280 1334 1310 1269 1252 1221 1242 1278 1278 5-9 895 1161 1276 1330 1307 1267 1250 1219 1241 1277 10-14 897 892 1158 1274 1328 1306 1265 1249 1218 1240 15-19 821 893 889 1155 1271 1326 1304 1264 1247 1217 20-24 782 814 888 885 1151 1263 1323 1301 1261 1246 25-29 685 74 809 883 881 1147 1264 1319 1298 1259 30-34 558 677 768 804 879 877 1143 1260 1316 1295 35-39 442 551 671 762 799 874 873 1138 1255 1312 40-44 332 436 544 664 756 793 868 868 1132 1250 45-49 308 326 429 536 656 747 784 860 861 1125 50-54 238 300 318 419 526 644 735 773 849 852 55-59 202 229 289 308 407 512 629 720 759 836 60-64 154 190 216 274 293 390 493 608 699 740 65-69 124 138 172 197 253 273 367 467 580 672 70-74 80 103 116 147 172 224 245 333 430 543 75+ 104 108 127 154 198 251 331 408 539 729 TOTAL 7789 8871 10003 11102 12148 13151 14094 15028 15965 16870 BIRTH RATE 31.9 29.2 25.6 22.5 20.4 18.4 17.6 17.0 16.0 DEATH RATE 5.6 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.64 2.42 2.09 1.80 1.58 1.37 1.27 1.19 1.08 MET MIGRATION RATE -.4 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.60 2.40 2.08 1.79 1.57 1.37 1.27 1.19 1.08 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.000 3.630 3.260 2.857 2.504 2.195 2.082 2.078 2.075 NRR 1.870 1.714 1.550 1.365 1.199 1.052 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.24 70.48 71.81 73.20 74.20 75.26 76.38 77.57 78.84 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 56.16 57.05 58.12 59.32 60.22 61.18 62.20 63.29 64.44 INR - BOTH SEXES 18.1 14.5 11.8 9.8 8.8 7.8 6.9 5.9 4.9 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0222 .0179 .0146 .0122 .0111 .0099 .0088 .0077 .0066 DEP. RATIO 73.6 72.1 72.8 66.3 59.6 53.3 49.5 48.0 48.3 49.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 109 Suwury ProjectIfn for 25-Year Periods MALAYSIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 15682 22340 32001 39234 42635 43481 43985 44244 KALES 0-4 1233 1370 1341 1318 1316 1317 1318 1318 5-9 942 1389 1300 1308 1314 1317 1317 1317 10-". 933 1328 1275 1308 1318 1318 1317 1317 15-19 854 1217 1304 1321 1322 1318 1316 1316 20-24 770 926 1314 1334 1319 1314 1313 1314 25-29 646 910 1345 1327 1308 1307 1309 1310 30-34 543 826 1358 1283 1294 1303 1306 1307 35-39 455 742 1291 1252 1290 1302 1304 1304 40-44 349 619 1173 1273 1297 1301 1300 1299 45-49 320 513 883 1274 1302 1292 1290 1290 50-54 231 419 852 1288 1282 1270 1273 1277 55-59 198 307 749 1272 1217 1238 1252 1259 60-64 14" 262 635 1167 1155 1205 1226 1233 65-69 113 170 483 1003 1126 1168 1186 1191 70-74 74 124 347 690 1051 1106 1117 1125 75+ 89 116 386 1148 2184 2382 2529 2611 TOTAL 7893 11237 16036 19568 21094 21457 21674 21788 FEMALES 0-4 1166 1310 1278 1256 1254 1255 1256 1256 5-9 895 1330 1241 1246 1253 1256 1256 1256 10-14 897 1274 1218 1246 1256 1257 1256 1256 15-19 821 1155 1247 1260 1261 1257 1256 1255 20-24 782 885 1261 1275 1260 1255 1254 1255 25-29 685 883 1298 1272 1252 1252 1253 1254 30-34 558 804 1316 1234 1242 1250 1253 1254 35-39 442 762 1255 1208 1240 1252 1254 1254 40-44 332 664 1'32 1235 1251 1255 1253 1252 45-49 308 536 861 1243 1262 1251 1249 1249 50-54 238 419 849 1270 1253 1239 1242 1245 55-59 202 308 759 1273 1206 1223 1236 1241 60-64 154 274 699 1195 1169 1212 1231 1236 65-69 124 197 580 1051 1175 1209 1223 1226 70-74 80 147 430 766 1152 1197 1203 1208 75, 104 1S4 539 1635 3054 3404 3636 3758 TOTAL 7789 11102 15965 19665 21541 22024 22312 22456 BIRTH RATE 28.7 19.0 14.4 12.5 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.1 4.8 6.4 9.2 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET NIGRATION RATE -.2 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.36 1.44 .82 .33 .08 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.594 2.309 2.071 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 70.61 75.48 80.20 82.80 84.23 85.31 85.75 INR - BOTX SEXES 14.8 7.8 4.2 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 110 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES MAILDNi ES Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2035 AGE GRWUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 182 214 253 296 342 391 443 494 546 596 MALES 0-4 16 20 23 25 27 29 31 32 32 31 5-9 13 15 20 22 25 27 29 31 31 32 10-14 12 13 15 20 22 25 27 29 31 31 15-19 10 12 13 15 19 22 25 27 29 31 20-24 8 10 12 13 15 19 22 25 27 29 25-29 7 8 10 11 12 15 19 22 24 27 30-34 4 7 8 9 11 12 15 19 22 24 35-39 4 4 7 7 9 11 12 15 19 22 40-44 5 4 4 6 7 9 11 12 14 19 45-49 4 5 4 4 6 7 9 11 12 14 50-54 4 4 5 4 3 6 7 9 11 11 55-59 3 4 4 4 3 3 6 7 8 10 60-64 2 3 3 3 4 3 3 5 6 8 65-69 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 70-74 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 75+ 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 TOTAL 94 110 129 150 173 198 224 250 275 300 FEMALES 0-4 16 20 22 24 26 28 30 30 30 30 5-9 13 15 19 22 24 26 28 30 30 30 10-14 12 12 15 19 22 24 26 28 30 30 15-19 9 11 12 15 19 22 24 26 28 30 20-24 8 9 11 12 15 19 22 24 26 28 25-29 6 8 9 11 12 15 19 21 24 26 30-,4 4 6 8 9 11 12 15 19 21 24 35-39 3 4 6 8 9 11 12 15 19 21 40-44 4 3 4 6 8 9 11 12 15 18 45-49 4 4 3 4 6 8 9 11 12 14 50-54 3 4 4 3 4 6 7 8 10 12 55-59 2 3 4 4 3 4 5 7 8 10 60-64 1 2 3 4 3 3 3 5 7 8 65-69 0 1 2 2 3 3 2 3 5 6 70-74 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 2 3 4 75+ 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 TOTAL 88 104 124 145 169 193 219 245 271 296 BIRTH RATE 44.2 41.7 38.7 35.6 32.9 30.3 27.2 24.4 21.5 DEATH RATE 9.7 8.5 7.4 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.6 4.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.44 3.32 3.13 2.91 2.69 2.47 2.22 1.99 1.74 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.24 3.32 3.13 2.91 2.69 2.47 2.22 1.99 1.74 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.500 5.965 5.430 4.895 4.360 3.825 3.290 2.878 2.518 NRR 2.707 2.552 2.385 2.202 1.985 1.762 1.533 1.356 1.200 0(0) - BOTH SEXES 60.44 62.45 64.52 66.59 68.00 69.46 70.97 72.54 74.17 e15) - BOTH SEXES 53.72 54.40 55.23 56.18 57.00 57.86 58.75 59.69 60.66 INR - BOTH SEXES 77.0 65.4 54.5 44.8 38.6 32.4 26.2 20.0 13.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1075 .0892 .0723 .0573 .0492 .0412 .0331 .0250 .0168 DEP. RATIO 87.4 88.9 92.9 93.8 88.4 81.7 73.4 65.7 60.0 54.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 111 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods MALDIVmS AGE GCL " 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 182 296 546 770 923 984 1007 1017 MALES 0-4 16 25 32 31 31 30 30 30 5-9 13 22 31 31 30 30 30 30 10-14 12 20 31 29 30 30 30 30 15-19 10 15 29 29 30 31 30 30 20-24 8 13 27 31 31 31 30 30 25-29 7 11 24 31 31 30 30 30 30-34 4 9 22 31 30 30 30 30 35-39 4 7 19 30 29 30 30 30 40-44 5 6 14 28 29 30 30 30 45-49 4 4 12 26 30 30 30 30 50-54 4 4 11 23 30 30 29 29 55-59 3 4 8 20 29 29 29 29 60-64 2 3 6 16 27 27 28 28 65-69 1 3 5 12 24 25 27 27 70-74 1 2 2 8 20 25 26 26 75+ 1 1 3 10 29 49 56 59 TOTAL 94 150 275 386 460 487 497 501 FEMALES 0-4 16 24 30 30 29 29 29 29 5-9 13 22 30 29 29 29 29 29 10-14 12 19 30 28 29 29 29 29 15-19 9 15 28 28 29 29 29 29 20-24 8 12 26 29 29 29 29 29 25-29 6 11 24 30 30 29 29 29 30-34 4 9 21 30 29 29 29 29 35-39 3 8 19 29 28 29 29 29 40-44 4 6 15 28 28 n9 29 29 45-49 4 4 12 25 29 29 29 29 50-54 3 3 10 23 29 29 29 29 55-59 2 4 8 20 29 28 28 29 60-64 1 4 7 17 28 27 28 28 65-69 0 2 5 13 26 26 28 28 70-74 0 1 3 10 23 27 28 28 75+ 0 1 4 14 41 69 79 84 TOTAL 88 145 271 384 463 497 510 516 BIRTH RATE 41.2 29.4 18.2 14.0 12.5 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.4 5.4 4.6 6.8 9.9 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.23 2.46 1.37 .73 .26 .09 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.879 3.691 2.183 2.070 2.064 2.059 2.058 eO) - BOTH SEXES 62.69 69.87 76.32 80.37 82.75 84.57 85.28 IMR - BOTH SEXES 64.9 32.1 10.1 4.1 3.0 2.3 2.1 112 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TEHRtAORIES M ICRONESIA, F E iEAT STATS OF Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2020 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201S 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 91 103 117 132 149 165 IS0 194 208 222 MALES 0-4 7 9 9 10 i0 10 9 9 9 9 5-9 8 7 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10-14 7 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 15-19 5 7 8 6 a 9 9 10 10 9 20-24 4 5 6 7 6 6 9 9 10 9 25-29 4 4 5 6 7 6 8 9 9 10 30-34 3 3 4 5 6 7 6 8 9 9 35-39 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 6 8 9 40-44 2 2 3 3 4 S 6 7 6 8 45-49 2 1 2 2 3 3 5 6 7 6 50-54 1 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 6 7 55-59 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 6 60-64 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 70-74 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 75+ 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 TOTAL 47 53 60 67 76. 64 91 98 105 112 FEMALES 0-4 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 7 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 6 7 6 a 9 9 9 9 9 9 15-19 5 6 6 6 a 9 9 9 9 9 20-24 4 5 6 6 6 a 9 9 9 9 25-29 4 4 4 5 6 6 8 9 9 9 30-34 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 8 9 9 35-39 2 3 3 4 * S 6 6 8 9 40-44 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 8 45-49 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 50-54 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 55-59 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 5 60-64 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 75+ 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 TOTAL 45 50 57 65 73 81 88 96 103 110 BIRTH RATE 36.4 33.9 30.9 27.6 24.3 21.6 19.0 17.8 17.3 DEATH RATE 5.3 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 RATE OF RAT. INC. 3.12 2.90 2.62 2.32 2.02 1.76 1.50 1.38 1.31 NET MIGRATION RATE -6.2 -3.6 -1.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.50 2.53 2.46 2.32 2.02 1.76 1.50 1.38 1.31 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.000 4.500 4.000 3.M00 3.004 2.578 2.212 2.081 2.074 NRR 2.329 2.109 1.S86 1.659 1.429 1.231 1.060 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 69.98 70.82 71.68 73.07 7n.09 75.16 76.28 77.46 78.68 e(IS) - 80TH SEXES 57.69 58.24 S.98 59.87 60.6? 61.51 62.40 63.33 64.31 IMR - BOTH SEXES 28.0 24.5 20.S 16.9 16.6 12.2 9.8 7.5 5.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0334 .0295 .0250 .0209 .0181 .0152 .0124 .0096 .0068 DEP. RATIO 91.2 87.1 80.1 79.0 70.5 61.8 54.7 49.8 47.0 45.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 113 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods MICRONESIU, FEDERLATED STATES OF AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2650 TOTAL M+F 91 132 208 268 298 306 310 312 MALES 0-4 7 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 15-19 5 6 10 9 9 9 9 9 20-24 4 7 10 9 9 9 9 9 25-29 4 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 30-34 3 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 35-39 2 4 8 9 9 9 9 9 40-44 2 3 6 9 9 9 9 9 45-49 2 2 7 9 9 9 9 9 50-54 1 1 6 9 9 9 9 9 55-59 1 1 4 8 8 9 9 9 60-64 1 1 3 7 8 9 9 9 65-69 1 1 2 5 8 8 8 70-74 0 1 2 5 8 8 8 8 75+ 0 1 1 7 14 16 18 18 TOTAL 47 67 105 134 148 151 153 154 FEMALES 0-4 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 15-1f; 5 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 20-2. 4 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 25-2S' 4 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 30-34 3 4 9 8 9 9 9 9 35-39 2 4 8 9 9 9 9 9 40-44 1 3 6 9 9 9 9 9 45-49 1 3 6 9 9 9 9 9 50-54 1 2 5 9 8 9 9 9 55-59 1 1 4 8 8 9 9 9 60-64 1 1 3 8 9 9 9 9 65-69 1 1 3 6 9 v 9 9 70-74 1 1 2 6 8 8 8 9 75+ 1 1 2 9 19 23 25 26 TOTAL 45 65 103 133 150 155 157 158 BIRTH RATE 33.5 21.6 15.3 12.8 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 4.9 4.1 5.3 8.6 11.0 11.3 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.50 1.80 1 -2 .43 .11 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.444 2.593 2.070 2.063 2.060 2.058 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 70.97 75.41 80.08 82.70 84.17 85.28 85.72 IMR - BOTH SEXES 24.2 12.3 4.3 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.0 114 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES MONGOIJA ProJection (thousands) with NRR=l by 2020 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 19" 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL P+F 1856 2124 2425 2735 3043 333a 3617 3874 4148 4383 MALES 0-4 148 167 186 192 193 190 186 179 182 188 5-9 130 145 i64 18( 190 191 189 185 179 182 10-14 116 129 144 164 183 190 191 189 185 178 15-19 102 11S 128 143 163 182 189 190 188 185 20-24 85 101 114 127 142 162 181 188 189 1 W 25-29 69 84 100 113 126 141 160 180 187 188 30-34 56 68 83 99 112 125 140 159 179 186 35-39 50 55 67 81 98 111 124 139 158 177 40-44 43 49 53 66 80 96 109 122 137 157 45-49 35 41 47 52 64 79 95 107 120 135 50-54 29 33 40 45 50 62 76 92 104 117 55-59 23 27 31 37 43 48 59 73 88 100 60-64 18 21 24 28 34 39 44 55 68 8; 65-69 13 15 18 21 25 30 35 39 49 61 70-74 8 10 12 14 17 20 24 28 32 41 75+ 8 9 11 13 16 20 24 30 37 44 TOTAL 933 1069 1222 1379 1536 1685 1826 1955 2081 2207 FEMALES 0-4 142 162 180 186 186 183 179 172 174 179 5-9 125 139 159 178 184 185 182 178 171 174 10-14 111 124 139 159 177 184 184 182 178 171 15-19 104 110 123 138 158 177 183 184 181 177 20-24 83 102 109 122 137 157 176 182 183 181 25-29 69 82 101 108 121 136 156 175 182 183 30-34 55 68 81 100 107 120 135 155 174 181 35-39 49 54 66 80 99 106 119 134 155 174 40-44 43 48 53 65 78 97 105 118 133 154 45-49 36 41 47 52 64 77 96 103 117 132 50-54 30 34 40 45 50 62 75 94 101 115 55-59 24 28 33 38 43 48 60 73 91 99 60-64 19 22 26 30 35 41 45 57 69 88 65-69 14 17 20 23 27 32 37 42 53 65 70-74 9 11 14 16 19 23 27 *32 37 47 75+ 10 11 13 16 20 25 31 38 47 57 TOTAL 923 1055 1203 1356 1507 1653 1791 1919 2046 2176 BIRTH RATE 36.0 34.5 31.0 27.4 24.3 21.7 19.2 18.1 17.5 DEATH RATE 9.0 7.9 6.9 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.70 2.65 2.41 2.13 1.85 1.61 1.37 1.27 1.20 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.70 2.65 2.41 2.13 1.85 1.61 1.37 ".27 1.20 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.000 4.490 3.980 3.470 3.000 2.593 2.242 2.115 2.095 NRR 2.105 1.948 1.771 1. ts 1.379 1.203 1.050 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 61.21 63.46 65.68 67.85 69.17 70.55 71.98 73.46 75.01 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 53.39 54.50 55.61 56.82 57.62 58.45 59.31 60.22 61.16 IMR - BOTH SEXES 68.0 57.7 48.0 39.3 33.5 27.7 21.9 16.2 10.4 qtS) - BOTH SEXES .0933 .0772 .0620 .0491 .0419 .0347 .0274 .0201 .0128 DEP. RATIO 81.5 79.2 77.5 74.3 68.6 61.6 55.4 50.2 47.2 46.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 115 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods MONGOLIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1856 273S 4128 5247 5857 6041 6153 6208 MALES 0-4 148 192 182 184 186 186 186 186 5-9 130 184 179 185 186 186 186 186 10-14 116 164 185 187 187 186 186 185 15-19 102 143 188 109 186 185 185 185 20-24 85 127 189 187 184 185 185 185 25-29 69 113 187 180 183 184 185 185 30-34 56 99 179 175 183 184 184 184 35-39 50 81 158 181 184 184 184 184 40-64 43 66 137 183 185 183 183 183 45-49 35 52 120 182 182 180 181 182 50-54 29 45 104 177 173 177 179 180 55-59 23 37 88 16S 165 174 177 177 60-64 18 28 68 139 165 171 173 173 65-69 13 21 49 112 158 165 166 167 70-74 8 14 32 87 145 151 154 157 75+ 8 13 37 115 260 310 346 362 TOTAL 933 1379 2081 2628 2910 2991 3038 3060 FEMALES 0-4 142 186 174 176 177 177 177 177 5-9 125 178 171 176 177 177 177 177 10-14 111 159 178 178 178 177 177 177 15-19 104 138 181 180 178 177 177 177 20-24 83 122 183 179 176 176 177 177 25-29 69 108 182 173 175 176 177 177 30-34 55 100 174 170 175 177 177 177 35-39 49 80 155 176 177 177 177 176 40-44 43 65 133 179 178 176 176 176 45-49 36 52 117 179 176 174 175 176 50-54 30 45 101 176 169 172 175 175 55-59 24 38 91 166 164 172 174 175 60-64 19 30 69 144 168 172 173 174 65-69 14 23 53 119 166 170 171 172 70-74 9 16 37 97 160 164 166 169 75+ 10 16 47 153 352 435 490 517 TTiAL 923 1356 2046 2619 2947 3051 3115 3147 BIRTH RATE 33.6 21.8 15.6 13.0 12.2 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.9 5.7 6.1 8.7 11.0 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.59 1.65 .96 .6 .12 .07 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.432 2.612 2.085 2.069 2.063 2.059 2.058 etO) - BOTH SEXES 63.64 70.83 77.01 80.87 83.04 84.71 85.37 IMR - BOTH SEXES 57.5 28.0 7.9 3.8 2.9 2.3 2.1 116 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES MYANMAR Projection (thousards) with NRR=l by 2010 AGE GROUP 1'S5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 37544 41609 46413 50946 55053 58609 62148 65892 69640 73151 MALES 0-4 2702 2802 3203 3098 2904 2676 2720 2885 2949 2905 5-9 2425 2635 2748 3156 3064 2876 2655 2702 2869 2936 10-14 2384 2405 2616 2731 3141 3051 2865 2646 2694 2862 15-19 2017 2360 2383 2596 2713 3122 3035 2852 2636 2686 20-24 1762 1987 2327 2353 2567 2687 3095 3013 2835 2623 25-29 1498 1729 1952 2291 2321 2536 2659 3SS8 2992 2819 30-34 1167 1467 1697 1919 2257 2291 2508 2634 3046 2975 35-39 913 1139 1435 1663 1886 2222 2260 2480 2610 3024 40-44 785 885 1107 1398 1625 1848 2183 2226 2449 2583 45-49 762 753 852 1068 1353 1578 1800 2133 2182 2408 50-54 694 719 713 809 1019 1296 1517 1737 2067 2123 55-59 537 639 664 660 753 953 1219 1435 1651 1975 6,-64 437 475 568 592 593 681 868 1117 1324 1534 65-69 278 364 398 478 503 508 589 758 985 1178 70-74 211 212 279 307 372 396 406 476 621 817 75+ 169 213 236 290 341 413 474 517 596 756 TOTAL 18742 20785 23176 25409 27410 29135 30854 32680 34505 36205 FEMALES 0-4 2595 2710 3094 2988 2797 2579 2622 2781 2843 2801 5-9 2358 2538 2665 3056 2963 2778 2564 2610 2772 2838 10-14 2268 2339 2523 2653 3046 2955 2771 2559 2607 2769 15-19 2052 2246 2323 2510 2643 3036 2947 2765 2555 2603 20-24 1819 2024 2224 2306 2498 2632 3025 2938 2758 2550 25-29 15'9 1789 1999 2205 2293 2484 2620 3014 2929 2751 30-34 1179 1490 1763 1979 2189 2278 2471 2608 3002 2920 35-39 904 1153 1465 17141 1961 2171 2262 2456 2594 2990 40-44 828 880 1129 1442 1720 1939 2150 2242 2437 2578 45-49 779 802 857 1105 1416 1692 1911 2122 2217 2413 50-54 722 746 773 831 1076 1382 1655 1873 2085 2183 55-59 549 679 708 738 798 1037 1337 1606 1824 2036 60-64 468 502 627 660 693 754 985 1276 1540 1758 65-69 306 407 443 560 596 632 693 912 1192 1450 70-74 243 246 333 368 472 510 547 608 811 1073 75+ 215 272 311 398 482 615 735 842 969 1232 TOTAL 18802 20824 23237 25537 27643 29474 31294 33212 35135 36946 BIRTH RATE 30.3 30.7 26.5 22.5 19.3 18.3 18.2 17.5 16.3 DEATH RATE 9.7 8.8 7.8 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.06 2.19 1.87 1.55 1.25 1.17 1.17 1.11 .98 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.06 2.19 1.86 1.55 1.25 1.17 1.17 1.11 .98 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.020 3.720 3.166 2.695 2.294 2.151 2.130 2.110 2.090 NRR 1.680 1.612 1.412 1.229 1.056 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 60.01 62.35 64.67 66.93 6.32 69.77 71.27 72.84 74.47 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 52.33 53.54 54.76 56.04 56.96 57.92 58.92 59.97 61.07 IMR - BOTH SEXES 70.0 59.5 49.7 40.7 35.6 30.4 25.3 20.1 15.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0965 .0800 .0646 .0512 .0446 .0380 .0314 .0248 .0182 DEP. RATIO 75.5 70.1 68.4 65.1 60.2 51.8 46.2 44.5 45.9 47.7 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 117 Sumuary Projection for 25-Year Periods MYANMAR AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 200 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 3754 50946 s6o9 a 90301 93110 94977 95882 MALES 0-4 2702 3098 2949 2881 2866 2867 2870 2871 5-9 2425 3156 2869 282 2854 2866 2870 2869 10-14 2384 2731 2694 2794 2860 2871 2871 2869 15-19 2017 2596 2636 2816 2879 2874 2869 2867 20-24 1762 2353 205 2872 2885 2865 2860 2861 25-29 1498 2291 292 2897 2850 2843 2848 2853 30-34 1167 1919 3046 2813 2789 2824 2841 2846 35-39 913 1663 2610 2631 2743 2819 2838 2840 40-44 785 1396 249 2559 2750 2825 2830 2828 45-49 762 1068 2182 2727 2784 2815 2807 2807 50-54 694 809 2067 227 2M 2752 2761 2774 55-59 537 660 1651 2787 2630 2646 2702 2730 60-64 437 592 1324 2267 2370 2531 2637 2670 65-69 278 478 965 1954 2171 2428 2549 2577 70-74 211 307 621 1s51 2099 2289 2396 2424 75+ 169 290 596 2044 3966 4636 5192 5496 TOTAL 18742 25409 3450 41215 44269 45751 46738 47183 FEMALES 0-4 2595 296 2843 2753 2733 2733 2736 2737 5-9 2358 3056 27M 2711 2723 2733 2736 2736 10-14 2268 2653 2607 ZS6 2729 2739 2738 2736 15-19 2052 2510 255 2716 2749 2743 2737 2735 20-24 1819 2306 27 27 2760 2739 2733 2733 25-29 1519 2205 292 22 2742 2726 2728 2732 30-34 1179 1979 3002 2750 2698 2714 2727 2732 35-39 904 1741 2594 2580 2668 2717 2730 2731 -44 828 1442 2437 2519 2693 2732 2731 2727 45-49 779 1105 2217 2703 2751 2736 2722 2719 50-54 722 831 2085 2842 2768 2706 2700 2708 55-59 549 738 1624 286 2670 2645 2676 2697 60-64 468 660 1540 2419 2467 2591 2661 2686 65-69 306 560 1192 2187 2353 2577 2650 2666 70-74 243 368 al 1861 2427 2569 2610 2622 75+ 215 398 969 3278 6100 6960 7621 8000 TOTAL 18802 25537 35135 42487 46032 47359 48239 48699 BIRTH RATE 29.0 19.0 14.6 12.9 12.3 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.7 6.6 7.4 9.9 11.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.04 1.25 .74 .30 .12 .U8 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.581 2.259 2.082 2.068 2.063 2.059 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 62.50 70.00 76.4 80.46 82.82 84.63 85.31 INR - BOTH SEXES 59.5 30.4 10.8 4.0 3.0 2.3 2.1 118 COUN7RIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrITRIES NEPAL Projectfon (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2025 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 16682 18916 21495 24112 26785 29428 31993 34400 36553 38677 MALES 0-4 1449 1557 1762 1807 1855 1875 1872 1827 1734 1757 5-9 1157 1376 1486 1690 1741 1797 1827 1834 1800 1717 10-14 1004 1141 1358 1468 1671 1724 1783 1815 1824 1793 15-19 845 991 1127 1342 1453 1655 1710 1769 1803 1814 20-24 702 831 976 1111 1325 1435 1637 1692 1753 1788 25-29 602 690 817 960 1094 1306 1417 1617 1674 1735 30-34 532 590 677 802 945 1078 1288 1398 1598 1656 35-39 464 519 577 663 787 928 1060 1268 1378 1577 40-44 401 450 505 562 646 769 907 1038 1244 1354 45-49 344 385 433 486 542 625 745 881 1009 1211 50-54 285 325 365 410 462 517 597 712 844 969 55-59 227 263 300 337 381 430 482 557 667 792 60-64 171 201 233 267 302 341 387 434 504 604 65-69 120 143 168 196 225 255 290 330 372 433 70-74 74 91 109 129 151 175 199 227 259 294 75+ 65 77 95 115 139 165 194 225 260 299 TOTAL 8443 9630 10986 12346 13719 15076 16392 17625 18722 19794 FEMALES 0-4 1395 1476 1677 1736 1798 1811 1801 1751 1656 1672 5-9 1098 1311 1397 1604 1677 1746 1766 1764 1724 1637 10-14 948 1078 1289 1377 1585 1660 1730 1753 1754 1716 15-19 785 929 1058 1268 1359 1566 1644 1716 1741 1744 20-24 693 765 907 1035 1244 1336 1544 1623 1698 1727 25-29 633 672 743 884 1012 1219 1312 1520 1603 1681 30-34 581 612 651 722 861 988 1194 1289 1498 1584 35-39 494 558 590 629 700 837 965 1170 1267 1477 40-44 407 472 535 567 608 678 814 941 1145 1244 45-49 334 386 450 512 545 585 656 790 916 1118 50-54 267 313 364 425 486 518 559 629 761 885 55-59 206 245 289 337 395 454 487 527 596 724 60-64 156 182 218 258 303 358 413 446 487 553 65-69 112 130 153 185 220 261 310 361 393 433 70-74 70 85 100 119 145 174 209 251 295 324 75+ 61 72 89 107 130 160 198 243 299 363 TOTAL 8239 9286 10509 11766 13067 14352 15601 16775 17831 18883 BIRTH RATE 40.2 39.6 35.5 32.2 29.0 26.1 23.3 20.3 19.2 DEATH RATE 15.1 14.0 12.5 11.2 10.2 9.4 8.7 8.2 7.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.51 2.56 2.30 2.10 1.88 1.67 1.45 1.21 1.13 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.51 2.56 2.30 2.10 1.88 1.67 1.45 1.21 1.13 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.860 5.560 4.960 4.360 3.760 3.231 2.777 2.386 2.246 NRR 2.007 2.002 1.867 1.715 1.518 1.338 1.179 1.037 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 51.00 52.64 54.62 56.75 58.54 60.39 62.30 64,28 66.33 e05) - BOTH SEXES 49.52 50.18 50.89 51.66 52.42 53.20 54.01 54.84 55.69 INR - BOTH SEXES 127.1 117.3 105.6 93.0 83.0 73.0 62.9 52.9 42.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1884 .1725 .1530 .1327 .1174 .1019 .0863 .0705 .0546 DEP. RATIO 82.7 82.3 82.0 77.6 73.4 67.0 61.5 56.2 51.1 47.4 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 119 Surary Projection for 25-Year Periods NEPAL AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 16682 24112 36553 46532 52570 55505 57451 58431 MALES 0-4 1449 1807 1734 1775 1782 lm 1772 1770 5-9 1157 1690 1800 1798 1786 1m 1769 1769 10-14 1004 1468 1824 1811 1779 1769 1768 1768 15-19 845 1342 1803 1787 1761 1764 1767 1768 20-24 702 1111 1753 1720 1742 1762 1765 1765 25-29 602 960 1674 1681 1746 1762 1762 .760 30-34 532 802 1598 1746 1764 1761 1756 1754 35-39 464 663 1378 1757 1768 1748 1746 1747 40-44 401 562 1244 1719 1733 1721 1733 1740 45-49 344 486 1009 1648 1653 1691 1721 1729 50-54 285 410 844 1534 1587 1674 1705 1712 55-59 227 337 667 1401 1596 1653 1675 1681 60-64 171 267 504 1123 1524 1600 1619 1634 65-69 120 196 372 902 1372 1485 1531 1565 70-74 74 129 259 609 1148 129l 1408 1467 75. 6!j 115 260 638 1647 2445 "'13 3266 TOTAL 8443 12346 18722 23648 26387 27678 _j09 28896 FE4ALES 0-4 1395 1736 1656 1688 1696 1691 1688 1687 5-9 1098 1604 1724 1710 1699 1689 1687 1686 10-14 948 1377 1754 1722 1693 1685 1685 1686 15-19 785 1268 1741 1700 1677 1681 1685 1686 20-24 693 1035 1698 1640 1663 1681 1685 1686 25-29 633 894 1603 1610 1672 1686 1686 1685 30-34 581 722 1498 1680 1693 1689 1683 1682 35-39 494 629 1267 1696 1699 1679 1677 1679 40-44 407 567 1145 1667 1670 1658 1669 1676 45-49 334 512 916 1604 1598 1636 1664 1673 50-54 267 425 761 1485 1548 1632 1661 1668 55-59 206 337 596 1346 1583 1632 1650 1656 60-64 156 258 487 1085 1548 1609 1623 1637 65-69 112 185 393 905 1443 1536 1577 1610 70-74 70 119 295 629 1268 1400 1514 1575 75+ 61 107 299 718 2032 3241 4107 4562 TOTAL 8239 11766 17d31 22884 26183 27826 28942 29535 BIRTH RATE 38.2 25.7 17.4 14.1 12.9 12.3 12.0 DEATH RATE 13.8 9.4 7.8 9.2 10.7 10.9 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.46 1.66 .97 .49 .22 .14 .07 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.435 3.186 2.189 2.098 2.077 2.063 2.060 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 52.90 60.76 69.39 75.41 79.57 82.97 84.26 INR - BOTH SEXES 116.3 73.6 31.1 11.1 6.1 2.8 2.4 120 COUNIRTIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITMRIES NEW CALEDONIA Pr*Jgctimn (tbaou.and) with NRR=i by 2000 AGE GROUJP 198 199 1998 2000 200 2010 2015 202 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 152 165 178 19" 203 215 226 237 267 256 MALES 0-4 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5.9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 15-19 a8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 20-24 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 25-29 6 7 a 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 30-34 5 6 7 a 9 9 9 9 9 9 35-39 5 5 6 7 a 9 9 9 9 9 40-44 4 5 5 6 7 a 9 9 9 9 45-49 4 4 5 5 6 7 a 9 9 9 50-54 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 a 9 9 55-59 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 a 60-64 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 65-69 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 70-74 1 2 ¶ 1 2 2 2 3 34 75+ 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 TOTAL 80 86 92 97, 103 109 114 119 123 127 FEMALES 0-4 9 9 9 a 9 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 9 9 9 9 a 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 9 9 9 9 9 a 9 9 9 9 15-19 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 20-24 6 a8 9 9 9 9 9 a 9 9 25-29 5 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 30-34 5 5 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 35-39 4 5 5 6 a 9 9 9 9 9 40-44 4 4 5 5 6 a 9 9 9 9 45-49 3 4 4 5 5 6 a 9 9 9 50-54 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 a 9 9 55-59 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 8 9 60-64 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 65-69 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 70-74 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 75+ 1 1 1 2 2 3 96 5 6 7 TOTAL 72 79 86 93 100 106 112 118 123 128 BIRTH RATE 23.8 21.4 19.3 1863 17.? 16.7 15.7 14.8 14.2 DEATH RATE 6.9 6.5 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.? 7.0 RATE OF MAT. INC. 1.69 1.50 1.32 1.24 1.17, 1.04 .92 .81 .72 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.69 1.50 1.32 1.24 1.17 1.04 .92 .81 .72 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.120 2.650 2.251 2.108 2.101 2.093 2.086 2.078 2.071 NRR 1.433 1.236 1.060 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 67.87 69.79 71.66 73.39 74.39 75.44 76.53 77.67 78.86 *C15) - BOTH SEXES 56.45 57.69 59.04 60.36 61.11 61.69 62.72 63.58 64.49 INR - BOTH SEXES 36.0 29.2 23.6 19.1 16.3 13.5 10.7 7.9 5.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0444 .0353 .0283 .0229 .0197 .0105 .0132 .0100 .0067 DEP. RATIO 69.3 61.7 55.0 51.1 48.7 47.9 48.0 48.2 48.2 49.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND lERRIrORIES 121 Sumury Projection for 25-Year Periods NEW CALEDONIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 152 190 247 203 295 301 305 307 HALES 0-4 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5.9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 ) 10-14 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 15-19 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 20-24 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 25-29 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 30-34 5 a 9 9 9 9 9 9 35-39 5 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 40-44 4 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 45-49 4 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 50-54 3 5 9 8 9 9 9 9 55-59 2 4 7 a 9 9 9 9 60-64 2 3 6 a 6 a 8 9 65-69 2 2 5 7 a a 8 8 70-74 1 1 3 7 7 7 8 8 75+ 1 2 4 10 14 16 17 18 TOTAL 80 97 123 139 145 148 150 151 FEMALES 0-4 9 a 9 9 9 9 9 9 5-9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10-14 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 15-19 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 20-24 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 25-29 5 9 a 9 9 9 9 9 30-34 5 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 35-39 4 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 40-44 4 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 45-49 3 5 9 a 9 9 9 9 50-54 3 4 9 a 9 9 9 9 55-59 2 4 a a 9 9 9 9 60-64 2 3 6 a 9 9 9 9 65-69 1 3 4 a a 8 8 8 70-74 1 2 4 a a a a 8 75+ 1 2 6 16 21 24 25 26 TOTAL 72 93 123 1" IS0 153 155 156 BIRTH RATE 21.4 16.5 13.5 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.5 6.3 6.0 10.7 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.50 1.03 .55 .17 .08 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.639 2.093 2.068 2.062 2.060 2.058 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.87 75.60 80.21 82.80 84.25 85.33 85.75 IMR - BOTH SEXES 29.8 13.5 4.3 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 122 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES NEW ZEALAND ProJection (thousands) with NRRuI by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 3290 3405 3528 3655 3 m 3878 3977 4073 4160 4234 MALES 0-4 130 138 138 137 134 131 131 133 134 134 5-9 132 129 137 138 137 133 131 131 133 134 10-14 152 131 128 137 138 137 133 131 131 133 15-19 156 151 131 128 137 137 137 133 131 131 20-24 146 154 149 130 128 136 137 136 133 130 25-29 135 143 152 149 129 127 136 136 136 132 30-34 124 133 142 151 148 129 126 135 136 135 35-39 122 122 132 141 150 147 128 126 134 135 40-44 99 120 121 131 140 149 146 127 125 133 45-49 85 96 118 119 129 138 148 144 126 124 50-54 75 83 94 115 116 126 135 145 142 124 55-59 78 71 79 90 111 112 122 131 141 138 60-64 69 72 67 74 85 106 107 117 126 136 65-69 53 61 65 61 68 79 98 100 110 119 70-74 43 44 51 55 53 60 70 88 91 101 75+ 49 57 63 73 84 89 98 114 140 161 TOTAL 1649 1706 1766 1829 1886 1936 1983 2028 2068 2101 FEMALES 0-4 121 131 131 130 127 124 125 126 128 128 5-9 124 120 131 131 130 127 124 125 126 128 10-14 142 123 119 130 131 130 127 124 125 126 15-19 146 141 123 119 130 131 130 127 124 125 20-24 139 144 140 123 119 130 131 130 126 124 25-29 133 137 143 140 122 119 130 131 130 126 30-34 124 131 136 143 140 122 119 130 130 129 35-39 120 123 130 135 142 139 122 118 129 130 40-44 95 119 122 130 135 142 139 121 118 129 45-49 82 94 118 121 129 134 141 138 121 118 50-54 71 81 93 116 119 127 133 140 137 12C 55-59 73 69 79 91 114 118 126 131 138 135 60-64 71 70 67 77 89 112 115 123 129 136 65-69 62 67 67 64 74 85 108 112 120 126 70-74 53 56 61 62 60 69 81 103 107 116 75+ 83 92 102 114 125 132 145 167 204 238 TOTAL 1641 1699 1761 1826 1887 1941 1993 2045 2092 2133 BIRTH RATE 16.4 15.8 15.1 14.2 13.5 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.5 DEATH RATE 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.5 9.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. .81 .77 .71 .63 .55 .50 .4B .43 .35 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.2 -.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .69 .71 .71 .63 .55 .50 .48 .43 .35 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.011 2.022 2.033 2.043 2.054 2.065 NRR .956 .956 .958 .965 .971 .978 .984 .991 .998 etO) - BOTH SEXES 74.76 75.82 76.88 77.96 78.68 79.42 80.18 80.97 81.79 etlS) - BOTH SEXES 60.99 61.93 62.86 63.83 64.45 65.10 65.77 66.47 67.19 INR - BOTH SEXES 11.0 9.7 8.3 7.2 6.4 5.6 4.8 4.1 3.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0136 .0121 .0105 .0092 .0083 .0074 .0064 .0055 .0046 DEP. RATIO 53.5 51.0 51.2 50.9 50.2 50.2 52.6 55.5 59.4 63.4 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 123 Summary Projection for 25-Year Perfods NEW ZEALAND AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 3290 3655 4160 43s2 4390 4431 4461 4477 MALES 0-4 130 137 134 133 133 133 133 133 5-9 132 138 133 133 133 133 133 133 10-14 152 137 131 132 133 133 133 133 15-19 156 128 131 133 133 133 133 133 20-24 146 130 133 134 133 133 133 133 25-29 135 149 136 133 132 132 132 133 30-34 124 151 136 132 131 132 132 132 35-39 122 141 134 129 131 132 132 132 40-44 99 131 125 128 131 131 131 131 45-49 85 119 126 129 131 131 131 131 50-54 75 115 142 131 129 129 129 129 55-59 78 90 141 129 126 126 127 127 60-64 69 74 126 124 121 123 124 125 65-69 53 61 110 110 115 119 120 121 70-74 43 55 91 103 109 113 114 114 75+ 49 73 140 238 245 253 262 268 TOTAL 1649 1829 2068 2152 2168 2187 2201 2209 FEMALES 0-4 121 130 128 127 126 126 126 126 5-9 124 131 126 126 126 126 126 126 10-14 142 130 125 126 126 126 126 126 15-19 146 119 124 126 127 126 126 126 20-24 139 123 126 127 127 126 126 126 25-29 133 140 130 127 126 126 126 126 30-34 124 143 130 126 126 126 126 126 35-39 120 135 129 124 125 126 126 126 40-44 95 130 118 123 126 126 126 126 45-49 82 121 121 125 126 126 126 126 50-54 71 116 137 128 126 125 125 125 55-59 73 91 138 127 124 124 125 125 60-64 71 77 129 125 121 123 124 125 65-69 62 64 120 112 119 123 124 124 70-74 53 62 107 112 119 121 122 122 75+ 83 114 204 337 352 365 378 385 TOTAL 1641 1826 2092 2200 2222 2244 2260 2269 BIRTH RATE 15.7 13.3 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.1 8.1 10.4 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .70 .52 .18 .04 .04 .03 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.010 2.033 2.067 2.065 2.063 2.062 2.062 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 75.84 79.48 82.61 84.21 85.09 85.74 86.02 INR - BOTH SEXES 9.7 5.6 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 124 COUNTIRES ECONOMIbS, AND T!RRITORIES OTHER MICRONESIA Projection (thousnds) wfth NRRA1 by 2015 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 199 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M.F 85 97 110 122 135 14? 157 168 179 189 MALES 0-4 6 7 Sa 6 7 7 8 8 5*9 6 6 7 S S 8 8 7 7 8 10-14 5 6 6 7 S S 8 8 7 7 15-19 4 5 6 6 a 6 6 8 7 7 20-24 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 25-29 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 30-34 3 3 4 4 S 6 6 7 8 8 35-39 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 40-44 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 45-49 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 50-54 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 55-59 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 60-64 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 70-74 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 75+ 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 TOTAL 44 50 56 62 69 74 79 84 90 95 FENALES 0-4 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 5-9 6 6 7 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 10-14 S 6 6 7 S 8 7 7 7 7 15-19 4 S 6 6 7 s 8 7 7 7 20-24 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 25-29 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 ? 30-34 3 3 4 4 5 S 6 7 8 8 35-39 2 3 3 4 4 5 ' 6 7 7 40-66 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 45-49 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 50-54 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 55-59 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 60-64 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 70-74 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 75+ 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 TOTAL 41 47 54 60 6 72 78 83 89 94 BIRTH RATE 33.1 31.1 27.6 24.2 21.3 18.9 18.0 17.5 16.6 DEATH RATE 6.5 5.6 5.3 4.8 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 RATE OF NAT. IIC. 2.66 2.52 2.24 1.94 1.65 1.40 1.30 1.25 1 14 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2."6 2.52 2.24 1.94 1.65 1.40 1.30 1.25 1.14 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.S00 3.995 3.490 3.001 2.581 2.219 2.089 2.083 2.077 NRR 2.061 1.859 1.642 1.423 1.228 1.059 1.000 1.000 1.000 .(O) - BOTH SEXES 66.91 68.5T 70.2 72.01 73.08 74.21 75.40 76.65 77.98 etiS) - BOTH SEXES 55.03 56.10 57.38 58.77 59.64 60.56 61.54 62.58 63.68 IMR - BOTH SEXES 32.0 26.0 21.0 17.1 14.8 12.5 10.3 8.0 5.8 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0390 .0311 .0252 .0206 .0180 .0154 .0128 .0102 .0076 DEP. RATIO 79.5 7S.8 74.0 69.6 63.4 56.3 50.5 47.5 46.6 47.8 COUNWRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 125 Sunry Projection for 25-Yeer Peheft OTHER MICRONESIA AGE GROUP 1965 2000 2025 2M0 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL HPF a5 122 179 222 262 248 252 254 NALES 0-4 6 a B 8 8 8 8 8 5-9 6 a 7 7 8 8 8 8 10-14 5 7 7 a 8 8 8 8 15-19 4 6 7 a 8 8 8 8 20-24 4 6 S a 8 8 8 8 25.29 3 5 a 6 7 7 8 8 30-34 3 4 6 7 7 7 8 8 3S-39 3 4 7 7 7 7 7 7 40-44 2 3 6 7 7 7 7 7 45-49 2 3 S 7 8 7 7 7 50-54 1 2 5 7 7 7 7 7 55-59 1 2 4 7 7 7 7 7 60-64 1 1 3 6 6 7 7 7 65-69 1 1 2 5 6 7 7 7 70-74 0 1 2 4 6 6 6 6 75+ 0 1 2 6 12 13 14 15 TOTAL 4 62 90 110 120 123 124 125 FENALES 0-4 6 S 7 7 7 7 7 7 5-9 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 10-14 S 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 15-19 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 20-24 4 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 25-29 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 30-34 3 4 S 7 7 7 7 7 35-39 2 4 7 7 7 7 7 7 40-44 2 3 6 7 7 7 7 7 45-49 2 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 50-54 1 2 5 7 7 7 7 7 55-59 1 2 4 7 7 7 7 7 60-64 1 1 4 7 7 7 7 7 65-69 1 1 3 6 7 7 7 7 70-74 0 1 2 S 7 7 7 7 75+ 0 1 2 a 16 19 21 21 TOTAL 41 60 69 111 122 126 128 129 BIRTH RATE 30.4 19.7 14.0 12.7 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE s.8 4.9 6.2 9.2 11.1 11.3 11.4 MET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.47 1.51 .87 .35 .10 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.940 2.3 2.072 2.064 2.061 2.058 2.058 eCO) - IOT SEXES 68.73 74.44 79.49 82.36 83.97 85.18 85.66 INR BOTN EXES 26.2 12.6 4.8 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.0 126 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES OTHER POLYNESIA Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2010 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL H+F 79 85 94 103 114 123 131 140 149 157 MALES 0-4 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 15-19 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 20-24 2 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 25-29 2 2 4 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 30-34 2 2 2 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 35-39 2 2 2 2 4 5 6 6 5 6 40-44 1 2 2 2 2 4 5 6 6 5 45-49 2 1 2 2 2 2 4 5 6 6 50-54 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 4 5 6 55-59 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 4 5 60-64 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 4 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 70-74 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 75+ 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 TOTAL 40 43 47 52 57 62 66 70 75 79 FEMALES 0-4 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 10-14 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 15-19 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 20-24 3 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 25-29 3 3 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 30-34 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 35-39 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 5 6 40-4 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 5 45-49 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 50-54 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 55-59 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 5 60-64 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 65-69 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 70-74 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 75+ 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 TOTAL 39 42 46 51 57 61 65 70 74 79 BIRTH RATE 28.2 28.1 26.2 23.2 19.7 18.0 17.4 16.8 15.9 DEATH RATE 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.8 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.29 2.32 2.17 1.89 1.53 1.35 1.28 1.22 1.11 NET MIGRATION RATE -7.3 -4.5 -2.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.56 1.87 1.96 1.89 1.53 1.35 1.28 1.22 1.11 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.000 3.495 3.003 2.580 2.217 2.087 2.081 2.076 2.071 NRR 1.870 1.649 1.426 1.230 1.060 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.71 71.26 n.82 74.33 75.28 76.26 77.29 78.37 79.49 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 57.26 58.37 59.59 60.83 61.59 62.39 63.23 64.12 65.05 INR - BOTH SEXES 26.0 21.0 17.1 13.9 12.0 10.1 8.2 6.3 4.5 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0311 .0252 .0206 .0169 .0147 .0126 .0104 .0082 .0061 DEP. RATIO 97.0 81.S 71.1 63.4 60.9 54.1 49.0 45.2 43.9 43.3 COUNRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 127 Summary Projectfon for 25-Year Periods OTHER POLYNESIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 79 103 149 184 196 200 202 203 MALES 0-4 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 15-19 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20-24 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 25-29 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 30-34 2 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 35-39 2 2 5 6 6 6 6 6 40-44 1 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 45-49 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 50-54 1 2 5 6 6 6 6 6 55-59 1 1 4 6 6 6 6 6 60-64 1 1 1 5 5 6 6 6 65-69 1 1 1 5 5 5 5 5 70-74 0 1 1 5 5 5 5 5 t?5 0 1 2 6 10 11 12 12 TOTAL 40 52 75 92 97 98 99 100 FEMALES 0-4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 15-19 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20-24 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 25-29 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 30-34 2 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 35-39 2 3 5 5 6 6 6 6 40-44 1 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 45-49 2 2 5 6 6 6 6 6 50-54 1 2 5 6 6 6 6 55-59 1 1 4 6 6 6 6 60-64 1 1 2 5 5 6 6 6 65-69 0 1 2 5 5 6 6 6 70-74 0 1 2 5 6 6 6 6 75+ 1 1 3 8 14 16 17 17 TOTAL 39 51 74 92 99 101 102 103 BIRTH RATE 27.5 18.8 14.2 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 4.9 4.5 5.8 9.9 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -4.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.80 1.45 .85 .25 .08 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.437 2.197 2.068 2.062 2.060 2.058 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 71.36 76.45 80.75 83.11 84.43 85.41 85.80 IMR - BOTH SEXES 21.2 10.1 3.9 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 128 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES PAKISTAN ProJectIon (:housands) wIth NRR-1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1sse 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 96180 112351 129496 147290 1653 184166 203241 222099 239764 255573 MALES 0-4 8660 10117 10835 11340 l1m 12064 12565 12695 12361 11742 5-9 7330 8279 9708 10455 11014 11489 11848 12375 12559 12282 10-14 6366 7238 8182 9607 10362 10928 11413 11783 12322 12520 15-19 5627 6291 7159 8101 9523 10281 10853 11344 11723 12270 20-24 4715 5546 6207 7072 6014 9429 10188 10763 11260 11646 25-29 3928 4639 5464 6125 6989 796 9333 10092 10671 11173 30-34 3279 3859 4565 5386 6047 6906 7839 9239 10000 10583 35-39 2221 3213 3788 4488 530 5961 6815 7744 9137 9900 40-44 1831 2164 3137 3706 4396 5204 5856 6704 7627 9010 45-49 i621 1768 2M 3042 3599 4277 5069 5713 6551 7464 50-54 1376 1543 1686 2001 2911 3450 4109 4878 5509 6328 55-59 1132 1279 1437 1574 1871 2728 3241 3868 4604 5211 60-64 852 1014 1149 1294 1420 1692 2475 2949 3531 4215 65-69 630 721 861 978 1104 1217 1456 2138 2557 3073 70-74 430 488 561 672 66 870 963 1158 1708 2053 75+ 370 451 529 616 733 856 989 1122 1327 1819 TOTAL 50367 58610 67363 76457 85826. 95297 105010 114567 123448 131290 FEMALES 0-4 8092 9829 10517 10993 11398 11658 12078 12161 11801 11171 5-9 6558 7747 9450 10175 10705 11145 11443 11901 12028 11714 10-14 5686 6467 7649 9346 10082 10620 11069 11380 11850 11991 15-19 5087 5598 6375 7552 9244 9986 10534 10996 11320 11805 20-24 4277 4980 5490 6264 7435 9120 9871 10434 10913 11257 25-29 3538 4167 4863 5372 6143 7310 8988 9752 10334 10834 30-34 2954 3436 4057 4745 5253 6024 7188 8862 *9641 10243 35-39 1988 2859 3333 3944 4624 5135 5906 7068 8740 9536 40-44 1728 1915 2761 3226 3827 4501 so5s 5786 6945 8615 45-49 1510 1655 1838 2656 3111 3702 4369 4883 5652 6807 50-54 1275 1428 1570 1747 2S32 2976 3555 4211 4723 5486 55-59 1123 1182 1329 1464 1635 2380 2810 3372 4011 4520 60-64 775 1007 1064 1200 1329 1493 2185 2596 3134 3750 65-69 558 658 860 913 1035 1155 1308 1930 2311 2811 70-74 379 435 516 678 m 831 936 1071 1596 1930 75+ 286 379 462 558 718 834 974 1130 1318 1814 TOTAL 45813 53742 62133 70833 79797 88869 98231 107532 116316 124283 BIRTH RATE 43.8 40.1 36.1 32.6 29.5 27.4 24.8 22.0 19.2 DEATH RATE 12.6 11.5 10.3 9.1 8.3 7.6 7.1 6.7 6.4 RATE OF MAT. INC. 3.12 2.85 2.58 2.35 2.12 1.97 1.78 1.53 1.28 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.11 2.84 2.58 2.35 2.12 1.97 1.77 1.53 1.28 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.200 5.600 5.000 4.400 3.800 3.346 2.946 2.594 2.283 NRR 2.350 2.168 1.987 1.801 1.591 1.433 1.289 1.160 1.043 e(0) - BOTH SEXES 55.00 56.30 57.88 59.72 61.43 63.19 65.01 66.89 68.83 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 51.50 52.11 52.57 53.13 53.88 54.65 55.45 56.27 57.11 IMR - BOTH SEXES 107.0 100.2 90.1 78.6 69.4 60.3 51.1 42.0 32.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1550 .1442 .1281 .1100 .0962 .0824 .0685 .0544 .0403 DEP. RATIO 89.2 88.7 86.7 81.9 74.0 66.7 61.0 57.2 53.7 49.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 129 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods PAKISTAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 96180 147290 239764 313018 358666 379388 391279 397123 MALES 0-4 8660 11340 12361 12237 12112 12019 11998 11995 5-9 7330 10455 12559 12275 12056 11988 11984 11987 10-14 6366 9607 12322 12072 11958 11973 11987 11990 15-19 5627 8101 11723 11654 11899 11987 11992 11986 20-24 4715 7072 11260 11559 11945 12013 11976 11964 25 29 3928 6125 10671 12072 12075 11998 11936 11924 3J-34 3279 5386 10000 1Z248 12071 11908 11876 11883 3S-39 2221 4488 9137 11947 11814 11765 11822 11851 40-44 1831 3706 7627 11275 11335 11649 11787 11814 45-49 1621 3042 6551 10699 11147 11623 11752 11745 50-54 1376 2001 5509 9919 11457 11612 11628 11609 55-59 1132 1574 4604 8942 11302 11375 11357 11389 60-64 852 1294 3531 7665 10533 10787 10948 11093 65-69 630 978 2557 5771 9238 9844 10434 10689 70-74 430 672 1708 4196 7784 8926 9784 10081 75+ 370 616 1327 4584 11344 17783 20995 22452 TOTAL 50367 76457 123448 159113 180070 189249 194255 196451 FEMALES 0-4 8092 10993 11801 11628 11520 11450 11435 11433 5-9 6558 10175 12028 11664 11463 11418 11423 11428 10-14 5686 9346 11850 11474 11367 11401 11426 11431 15-19 5087 7552 11320 11088 11316 11417 11436 11433 20-24 4277 6264 10913 11020 11380 11456 11437 11426 25-29 3538 53n 10334 11569 11539 11466 11421 11412 30-34 2954 4745 9641 11799 11565 11402 11382 11397 35-39 1988 3944 8740 11557 11345 11285 11349 11388 40-44 1728 3226 6945 10948 10916 11203 1130, 11382 45-49 1510 2656 5652 10432 10778 11221 11351 11361 50-54 1275 1747 4723 9707 11190 11298 11310 11308 55-59 1123 1464 4011 8813 11213 11201 11171 11214 60-64 775 1200 3134 7650 10687 10815 10948 11102 65-69 558 913 2311 5658 9684 10153 10712 10979 70-74 379 678 1596 4064 8543 9613 10471 10795 75. 286 558 1318 4835 14090 23341 28409 31183 TOTAL 45813 70833 116316 153905 178596 190139 197024 200672 BIRTH RATE 39.6 26.8 17.4 14.0 12.7 12.2 11.9 DEATH RATE 11.4 7.6 6.8 8.6 10.5 10.9 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 .0 .0 .0 .O .O .0 GROWTH RATE 2.84 1.95 1.07 .54 .22 .12 .06 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.534 3.302 2.167 2.087 2.072 2.062 2.060 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 56.53 63.59 71.63 77.08 80.65 83.51 84.60 IMR BOTH SEXES 98.9 60.3 23.0 7.4 4.5 2.7 2.3 130 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES PAPUA NEW GUItEA ProJection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2020 AGE GRWUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 3460 3915 4429 4937 5429 5905 6362 6788 7222 7675 MALES 0-4 277 315 356 362 361 356 349 334 339 349 5-9 241 271 310 351 359 358 35. 346 331 336 10-14 228 239 269 308 349 357 356 351 344 330 15-19 206 225 236 266 304 346 354 353 349 343 20-24 167 201 219 230 260 298 340 349 349 346 25-29 135 161 193 211 223 253 292 334 344 346 30-34 112 130 155 186 204 216 247 286 329 341 33-39 105 107 124 14d 179 197 210 241 281 325 40-44 76 99 101 117 141 171 190 204 235 276 45-49 73 71 92 94 110 133 163 182 197 229 50-54 55 67 65 84 87 102 125 154 174 189 55-59 52 49 59 57 76 78 93 115 143 163 60-64 36 44 41 50 49 66 69 83 103 130 65-69 25 28 35 33 40 40 54 58 70 89 70-74 9 18 20 25 24 30 30 41 45 56 75+ 5 7 14 18 23 25 30 33 43 52 TOTAL 1803 2031 2287 2541 2787 3025 3253 3464 3678 3900 FEMALES 0-4 264 305 343 349 348 342 336 322 326 335 5-9 223 259 300 340 347 345 340 333 319 323 10-14 211 221 257 298 338 345 344 339 332 318 15-19 184 207 217 253 295 335 342 341 337 331 20-24 136 178 201 212 247 289 329 338 338 335 25-29 121 130 172 194 205 241 283 324 334 336 30-34 105 115 125 165 187 198 235 277 319 331 35-39 105 100 110 119 158 181 193 229 272 316 40-44 71 99 94 104 114 152 175 188 225 269 45-49 69 67 93 89 99 109 146 169 183 220 50-54 52 64 62 87 83 93 103 139 163 177 55-59 50 47 58 56 79 77 87 97 132 156 60-64 34 43 41 50 49 71 69 79 90 124 65-69 22 28 35 33 42 42 61 60 70 80 70-74 8 16 20 26 25 32 33 49 5C 59 75+ 4 7 13 19 25 29 35 40 55 65 TOTAL 1657 1885 2141 2396 2642 2880 3109 3324 3544 3775 BIRTH RATE 36.2 35.7 32.0 28.5 25.7 23.3 20.8 19.8 19.1 DEATH RATE 11.5 11.1 10.3 9.5 8.9 8.3 7.8 7.4 6.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.47 2.46 2.17 1.90 1.68 1.49 1.30 1.24 1.22 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.47 2.46 2.17 1.90 1.68 1.49 1.30 1.24 1.22 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.c0 4.950 4.350 3.750 3.211 2.749 2.353 2.212 2.186 NRR 2.091 2.028 1.827 1.614 1.401 1.215 1.052 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 53.93 55.23 56.86 58.70 60.33 62.06 63.90 65.87 67.98 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 44.86 45.24 45.97 47.06 48.73 50.51 52.41 54.44 56.62 IMR - BOTH SEXES 63.0 53.8 44.7 36.7 36.7 36.6 36.5 36.5 36.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0855 .0711 .0571 .0453 .0452 .0452 .0451 .0450 .0450 DEP. RATIO 78.0 77.8 80.3 78.0 72.5 63.8 57.4 51.4 47.5 45.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES 131 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods PAPUA NEW GUINEA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 3460 4937 7222 9219 10361 10877 11237 11415 MALES 0-4 277 362 339 342 345 345 345 345 5-9 241 351 331 343 346 345 345 345 10-14 228 308 344 346 346 345 345 345 15-19 206 266 349 348 345 344 344 344 20-24 167 230 349 342 341 342 343 3/4 25-29 135 211 344 329 337 341 343 *143 30-34 112 186 329 322 336 341 342 342 35-39 105 148 281 332 338 340 341 341 40-44 76 117 235 333 338 337 338 339 45-49 73 94 197 329 329 331 335 337 '3-54 55 84 174 317 311 323 330 333 55-59 52 57 143 290 295 316 325 328 60-64 36 50 103 230 290 307 316 319 65-69 25 33 70 172 268 290 300 306 70-74 9 25 45 121 232 259 276 286 75+ 5 18 43 136 348 477 585 637 TOTAL 1803 2541 3678 4633 5143 5384 5553 5632 FEMALES 0-4 264 349 326 327 329 329 329 329 5-9 223 340 319 328 330 329 329 329 10-14 211 298 332 332 331 329 329 329 15-19 184 253 337 335 330 328 328 329 20-24 136 212 338 331 326 327 328 328 25-29 121 194 334 319 324 327 328 328 30-34 105 165 319 313 325 328 328 328 35-39 105 119 272 324 328 328 328 328 40-44 71 104 225 326 330 326 326 327 45-49 69 89 183 324 323 322 324 326 50-54 52 87 163 314 309 318 323 325 55-59 50 56 132 292 298 315 321 323 60-64 34 50 90 239 300 313 319 321 65-69 22 33 70 183 289 307 312 316 70-74 8 26 50 132 266 289 300 309 75+ 4 19 55 168 481 676 830 910 TOTAL 1657 2396 3544 4586 5218 5493 5683 5783 BIRTH RATE 34.5 23.3 16.9 13.8 12.8 12.2 11.9 DEATH RATE 10.9 8.3 7.2 9.2 10.8 10.9 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.37 1.52 .98 .47 .19 .13 .06 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.813 2.762 2.148 2.086 2.072 2.062 2.060 etO) - BOTH SEXES 55.45 62.44 70.86 76.52 80.32 83.38 84.52 IHR - BOTH SEXES 53.5 36.6 26.0 8.7 5.0 2.7 2.4 132 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES PHILIPPINES Projectfon (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2010 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20a5 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 54700 61480 67757 73703 79476 84899 90285 95694 100911 105831 MALES 0-4 4393 4427 4233 4174 4116 3999 4057 4155 4156 4113 5-9 3830 4330 4376 4188 4139 4086 3975 4036 4139 4145 10-14 3361 3802 4303 4349 4166 4120 4071 3962 4027 4132 15-19 3008 3328 3768 4266 4317 4139 4097 4052 3948 4015 20-24 2530 2958 3277 3709 4212 4269 4099 4064 4025 3928 25-29 2165 2475 2900 3209 3647 4152 4218 4058 4032 4002 30-34 1870 2114 2422 2836 3151 3592 4101 4175 4026 4008 35-39 1475 1820 2063 2363 2780 3099 3542 4054 4137 3998 40-44 1184 1427 1767 2004 2307 2723 3044 3489 4004 4096 45-49 1001 1135 1373 1703 1941 2242 2655 2978 3424 3941 50-54 777 945 1075 1304 1626 1861 2159 2567 2890 3335 55-59 629 716 874 998 1218 1527 1757 2048 2448 2769 60-64 469 558 638 782 900 1106 1397 1618 1900 2287 65-69 373 392 469 540 667 776 963 1229 1438 1705 70-74 271 285 302 363 423 530 625 787 1018 1208 75+ 246 286 317 345 404 486 612 759 969 1274 TOTAL 27582 30996 34155 37133 40015 42709 45372 48032 50579 52956 FEMALES 0-4 4143 4267 4076 4014 3953 3837 3887 3976 3973 3927 5-9 3611 4094 4228 4041 3987 3930 3818 3872 3965 3966 10-14 3156 3588 4073 4206 4024 3972 3919 3809 3866 3961 15-19 2872 3126 3559 4042 4182 4004 3956 3906 3801 3861 20-24 2636 2822 3079 3508 3999 4145 3975 3934 3892 3793 25-29 2318 2577 2766 3018 3457 3953 4108 3947 3916 3883 30-34 1880 2263 2523 2710 2972 3414 3915 4078 3927 3905 35-39 1430 1833 2213 2471 2666 2932 3377 3882 4052 3911 40-44 1149 1390 1787 2164 2427 2625 2894 3341 3850 4027 45-49 990 1112 1349 1740 2115 2379 2580 2851 3301 3813 50-54 794 949 1069 1301 1686 2056 2321 2525 2800 3251 55-59 657 749 898 1016 1243 1618 1982 2247 2456 2736 60-64 513 603 690 832 948 1167 1530 1887 2154 2369 65-69 401 449 530 612 744 857 1067 1413 1761 2030 70-74 294 324 365 436 509 630 737 933 1255 1590 75+ 272 337 397 459 550 671 848 1059 1364 1853 TOTAL 27118 30484 33602 36570 39461 42190 44913 47662 50332 52875 BIRTH RATE 31.6 26.9 24.0 21.7 19.6 18.6 17.8 16.8 15.7 DEATH RATE 7.6 6.9 6.4 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.40 2.00 1.77 1.57 1.37 1.26 1.19 1.07 .95 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 -.6 -.8 -.6 -.5 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.34 1.94 1.68 1.51 1.32 1.23 1.16 1.06 .95 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.940 3.310 2.906 2.552 2.241 2.127 2.114 2.102 2.089 NRR 1.745 1.492 1.331 1.186 1.047 1.000 1.000 1.000 i.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 63.44 64.95 66.61 68.33 69.60 70.93 72.33 73.79 75.34 etlS) - BOTH SEXES 52.90 53.66 54.65 55.82 56.83 57.90 59.02 60.21 61.46 IMR - BOTH SEXES 45.0 38.0 31.4 25.7 22.5 19.4 16.2 13.1 9.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0576 .0472 .0382 .0307 .0271 .0234 .0197 .0160 .0123 DEP. RATIO 80.2 76.2 69.0 60.3 53.4 48.9 46.3 45.6 46.3 47.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 133 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods PHILIPPINES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 54700 73703 100911 121162 129902 133615 135932 137070 MALES 0-4 4393 4174 4156 4119 4103 4098 4099 4099 5-9 3830 4188 4139 4095 4093 4095 4096 4096 10-14 3361 4349 4027 4067 4090 4096 4097 4096 15-19 3008 4266 3948 4059 4095 4097 4095 4093 20-24 2530 3709 4025 4076 4096 4090 4086 4086 25-29 2165 3209 4032 4095 4080 4072 4072 4075 30-34 1870 2836 4026 4065 4044 4052 4060 4064 35-39 1475 2363 4137 3936 4000 4035 4049 4053 40-44 1184 2004 4004 3835 3971 4023 4036 4038 45-49 1001 1703 3424 3878 3961 4002 4010 4012 50-54 777 1304 2890 3821 3931 3948 3959 3968 55-59 629 998 2448 3707 3821 3848 3883 3904 60-64 469 782 1900 3636 3578 3709 3783 3816 65-69 373 540 1438 3264 3308 3534 3643 3684 70-74 271 363 1018 2470 3072 3298 3427 3475 75+ 246 345 969 3167 5955 6957 7623 7954 TOTAL 27582 37133 50579 60289 64201 65955 67017 67512 FEMALES 0-4 4143 4014 3973 3927 3911 3907 3907 3907 5-9 3611 4041 3965 3907 3901 3904 3906 3906 10-14 3156 4206 3866 3883 3899 3906 3907 3906 15-19 2872 4042 3801 3881 3906 3909 3906 3905 20-24 2636 3508 3892 3909 3914 3908 3904 3903 25-29 2318 3018 3916 3946 3911 3900 3899 3901 30-34 1880 2710 3927 3934 3888 3889 3896 3899 35-39 1430 2471 4052 3826 3858 3882 3894 3897 40-44 1149 2164 3850 3748 3845 3882 3892 3893 45-49 990 1740 3301 3816 3858 3880 3884 3884 50-54 794 1301 2800 3802 3870 3861 3865 3871 55-59 657 1016 2456 3755 3821 3813 3836 3853 60-64 513 832 2154 3784 3662 3747 3804 3831 65-69 401 612 1761 3462 3506 3682 3767 3799 70-74 294 436 1255 2781 3434 3606 3704 3743 75+ 272 459 1364 4512 8515 9985 10945 11458 TOTAL 27118 36570 50332 60873 65701 67661 68916 69558 BIRTH RATE 27.3 18.8 14.4 12.7 12.2 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 6.9 6.0 7.2 10.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.7 -.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.99 1.26 .73 .28 .11 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.342 2.215 2.081 2.068 2.063 2.059 2.038 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 65.11 71.17 77.28 81.06 83.17 84.78 85.40 INR - BOTH SEXES 38.3 19.4 7.6 3.7 2.8 2.3 2.1 134 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERrrORIES SINGAPORE Projectfon (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 2731 3003 3219 3370 3500 3618 3729 3831 3915 3978 MALES 0-4 115 138 131 121 115 114 119 122 122 120 5-9 107 119 139 131 121 114 114 119 122 122 10-14 124 109 120 139 131 121 114 114 119 122 15-19 129 126 110 120 139 131 121 114 114 119 20-24 157 133 128 110 119 138 130 120 114 114 25-29 162 162 136 127 109 119 138 130 120 113 30-34 138 166 164 135 127 109 118 137 129 119 35-39 114 141 167 163 134 126 108 117 136 129 40-44 72 116 140 166 161 133 125 107 117 135 45-49 69 73 114 138 163 159 131 123 106 115 50-54 56 68 71 111 135 159 156 129 121 104 55-59 48 54 65 68 107 130 154 151 125 118 60-64 35 44 50 60 64 101 123 147 144 120 65-69 27 31 39 44 55 58 93 115 137 136 70-74 19 22 25 33 38 47 51 83 103 125 75+ i'1 23 28 33 43 54 68 81 115 157 TOTAL 1389 1523 1628 1700 1761 1814 1864 1909 1944 1969 FEMALES 0-4 107 131 125 116 109 109 113 116 116 114 5-9 98 111 133 125 116 109 109 113 116 116 10-14 116 101 112 133 125 116 109 109 113 116 15-19 123 119 103 112 133 125 115 109 109 113 20-24 149 129 122 103 112 133 125 115 109 109 25-29 153 156 132 121 102 112 132 125 115 109 30-34 133 158 158 132 121 102 111 132 125 115 35-39 110 136 159 157 132 121 102 111 132 124 40-44 71 112 136 158 157 131 120 102 111 131 45-49 68 71 111 135 157 156 130 120 101 110 50-54 55 68 70 109 133 155 154 129 119 100 55-59 46 53 66 69 107 131 153 152 127 117 60-64 34 44 51 64 67 105 128 150 149 125 65-69 29 32 41 49 61 64 101 124 146 145 70-74 24 25 29 38 45 57 60 95 118 140 75+ 27 34 41 48 62 79 101 120 165 223 TOTAL 1342 1480 1591 1670 1740 1804 1865 1922 1970 2009 BIRTH RATE 18.6 16.5 14.5 13.1 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.4 11.9 DEATH RATE 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.5 6.0 6.7 7.3 8.0 8.7 RATE OF MAT. INC. 1.34 1.13 .92 .76 .66 .61 .54 .43 .32 NET MIGRATION RATE 5.6 2.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.90 1.38 .92 .76 .66 .61 .54 .43 .32 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.850 1.850 1.850 1.885 1.920 1.954 1.987 2.020 2.052 NRR .888 .889 .891 .909 .926 .944 .960 .977 .993 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 73.51 74.77 76.06 77.25 78.01 78.80 79.63 80.49 81.40 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 59.36 60.50 61.70 62.83 63.56 64.32 65.12 65.95 66.83 IMR - BOTH SEXES 7.4 6.1 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.5 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0094 .0079 .0070 .0063 .0060 .0057 .0054 .0052 .0049 DEP. RATIO 42.1 41.1 42.7 42.8 41.2 40.5 44.8 52.0 61.6 69.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRfIORIES 135 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods SINGAPORE AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 2731 3370 3915 3957 3947 3976 4004 4019 MALES 0-4 115 121 122 120 119 119 119 119 5-9 107 131 122 119 119 119 119 119 10-14 124 139 119 118 119 119 119 119 15-19 129 120 114 118 119 119 119 119 20-24 157 110 114 119 120 119 119 119 25-29 162 127 120 121 119 119 119 119 30-34 138 135 129 121 118 118 118 118 35-39 114 163 136 117 117 118 118 118 40-44 72 166 117 112 116 117 118 118 45-49 69 138 106 111 117 117 117 117 50-54 56 111 121 116 117 116 116 116 55-59 48 68 125 122 115 113 114 114 60-64 35 60 144 125 109 109 111 112 65-69 27 44 137 102 100 105 108 108 70-74 19 31 103 86 93 100 102 103 75+ 17 33 115 219 225 227 234 239 TOTAL 1389 1700 1944 1947 1942 1958 1971 1978 FEMALES 0-4 107 116 116 115 114 114 114 114 5-9 98 125 116 114 113 114 114 114 10-14 116 133 113 113 113 114 114 114 15-19 123 112 109 113 114 114 114 114 20-24 149 103 109 114 114 114 114 114 25-29 153 121 115 116 114 114 114 114 30-34 133 132 125 116 113 113 113 114 35-39 110 157 132 113 112 113 113 114 40-44 71 158 111 108 112 113 114 114 45-49 68 135 101 108 113 114 113 113 50-54 55 109 119 113 114 113 113 113 55-59 46 69 127 122 114 112 112 112 60-64 34 64 149 127 110 110 111 112 65-69 29 49 146 105 104 109 111 111 70-74 24 38 118 93 102 109 110 110 75+ 27 48 165 322 326 329 340 346 TOTAL 1342 1670 1970 2011 2005 2019 2034 2041 BIRTH RATE 16.5 12.7 11.7 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.3 6.7 11.3 12.0 11.5 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.40 .60 .04 -.01 .03 03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.863 1.953 2.061 2.060 2.059 2.057 2.057 eCO) BOTH SEXES 74.84 78.89 82.28 84.03 84.98 85.69 85.98 IMR - BOTH SEXES 6.3 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 136 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AMD TERRIORIES SOLOMON ISLANDS Projection (thousands) with NRRm1 by 2035 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 274 316 372 432 494 553 611 667 719 770 MALES 0-4 25 26 33 35 37 36 35 35 34 34 5-9 24 24 25 32 35 36 35 35 35 34 10-14 20 24 24 25 32 35 36 35 35 35 15-19 15 20 24 24 25 32 35 36 35 35 20-24 12 14 19 23 24 24 32 34 36 35 25-29 9 11 14 19 23 24 24 31 34 36 30-34 7 9 11 14 19 23 23 24 31 34 35-39 6 7 9 11 14 19 23 23 24 31 40-44 5 6 7 9 11 14 1 22 23 24 45-49 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 i8 22 23 50-54 4 4 5 6 7 a 10 13 18 21 55-59 3 4 .4 5 5 6 8 10 12 17 60-64 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 8 9 12 65-69 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 7 8 70-74 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 6 75+ 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 TOTAL 142 163 191 221 252 282 311 338 364 390 FEMALES 0-4 25 25 31 34 35 34 34 33 32 33 5-9 22 24 24 31 34 35 34 34 33 32 10-14 18 22 24 24 31 34 35 34 34 33 15-19 13 17 21 24 24 31 33 35 34 34 20-24 11 13 17 21 24 24 31 33 35 34 25-29 9 11 13 17 21 24 24 30 33 35 30-34 7 9 11 13 17 21 23 2. 30 33 35-39 6 7 9 11 13 17 21 23 23 30 40-44 5 6 7 9 11 13 17 20 23 23 45-49 4 5 6 7 9 11 12 16 20 23 50-54 3 4 5 6 7 a 10 12 16 20 55-59 3 3 4 5 6 6 8 10 12 16 60-64 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 10 11 65-69 1 2 3 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 70-74 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 7 75+ 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 8 TOTAL 133 153 181 211 242 271 300 328 354 380 BIRTH RATE 36.3 39.2 36.0 32.0 27.4 24.4 21.9 19.4 18.2 DEATH RATE 7.6 6.8 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.87 3.24 3.00 2.68 2.25 1.99 1.75 1.51 1.38 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.87 3.24 3.00 2.68 2.25 1.99 1.75 1.50 1.38 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.800 5.500 4.800 4.100 3.400 2.966 2.552 2.211 2.088 NRR 2.452 2.407 2.152 1.878 1.572 1.375 1.201 1.050 1.000 oCO) - BOTH SEXES 63.31 65.34 67.37 69.38 70.63 71.93 73.26 74.64 76.07 *0(15) - BOTH SEXES 54.96 55.65 56.57 57.66 58.47 59.30 60.17 61.07 62.00 INR - BOTH SEXES 53.0 43.5 35.3 28.5 24.4 20.3 16.2 12.1 8.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0796 .0628 .0481 .0371 .0318 .0263 .0209 .0155 .0101 DEP. RATIO 105.5 93.8 86.9 82.4 79.9 70.5 61.7 54.4 49.6 46.6 COUNlRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 137 Summary Projectfon for 25-Year Periods SOLOMON ISLANDS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 274 432 719 956 1092 1133 1154 1163 MALES 0-4 25 35 34 35 35 35 35 35 5-9 24 32 35 35 35 35 35 35 10-14 20 25 35 35 35 35 35 35 15-19 15 24 35 35 35 35 35 35 20-24 12 23 36 34 34 35 35 35 25-29 9 19 34 33 34 35 35 35 30-34 7 14 31 34 35 35 35 34 35-39 6 11 24 34 35 34 34 34 40-44 5 9 23 34 34 34 34 34 45-49 4 7 22 35 33 34 34 34 50-54 4 6 18 32 32 33 34 34 55-59 3 5 12 29 32 33 33 33 60-64 2 4 9 21 31 32 32 32 65-69 2 3 7 19 30 31 31 31 70-74 1 2 4 16 28 28 29 29 75+ 1 2 5 18 45 59 65 68 TOTAL 142 221 364 481 544 561 570 574 FEMALES 0-4 25 34 32 33 33 33 33 33 5-9 22 31 33 33 33 33 33 33 10-14 18 24 34 34 33 33 33 33 15-19 13 24 34 33 33 33 33 33 20-24 11 21 35 33 33 33 33 33 25-29 9 17 33 32 33 33 33 33 30-34 7 13 30 33 33 33 33 33 35-39 6 11 23 33 33 33 33 33 40-44 5 9 23 33 33 33 33 33 45-49 4 7 20 34 32 33 33 33 50-54 3 6 16 32 31 32 33 33 5-59 3 5 12 29 32 33 33 33 60-64 2 4 10 22 32 33 32 33 65-69 1 2 7 21 31 32 32 32 70-74 1 2 5 17 31 30 31 32 75+ 1 2 6 22 60 82 92 97 TOTAL 133 211 354 476 548 s72 584 590 BIRTH RATE 37.1 24.4 16.3 13.2 12.2 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 6.7 4.6 5.0 8.0 10.8 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.04 2.04 1.14 .53 .15 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.306 2.919 2.080 2.067 2.062 2.059 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 65.55 72.23 77.93 81.43 83.40 84.89 85.48 INR - BOTH SEXES 43.0 20.5 6.3 3.5 2.7 2.2 2.1 138 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES SRI LANK Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 1995 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 15837 17002 17985 18928 19938 20965 21942 22838 23663 24445 MALES 0-4 1002 896 829 819 856 878 870 846 830 834 5-9 923 990 883 818 809 848 872 865 843 829 10-14 835 917 982 876 811 804 844 869 863 842 15-19 833 826 907 973 868 805 799 840 867 862 20-24 768 813 807 889 957 856 795 792 835 864 25-29 695 742 788 785 870 941 843 786 785 831 30-34 584 671 719 768 768 856 929 834 780 782 35-39 522 565 653 703 754 756 845 919 827 776 40-44 386 506 550 638 689 741 745 835 911 821 45-49 331 373 491 535 624 676 729 734 824 901 50-54 286 317 358 474 519 607 659 712 719 809 55-59 264 268 298 338 452 497 583 635 689 698 60-64 200 240 244 273 315 423 467 551 604 659 65-69 160 173 208 215 244 283 384 428 509 563 70-74 107 127 140 171 178 206 242 333 376 454 75. 120 130 153 179 218 250 292 351 465 581 TOTAL 8015 8554 9011 9454 9933 10426 10897 11330 11728 12105 FEMALES 0-4 961 858 793 783 818 839 830 807 792 795 5-9 881 950 847 783 774 811 834 826 804 791 10-14 807 876 943 840 777 770 808 831 825 804 15-19 798 801 868 935 834 772 766 805 829 824 20-24 760 788 788 855 924 824 765 761 802 828 25-29 718 749 m 772 841 913 816 759 757 801 30-34 599 708 735 758 761 832 905 810 756 756 35-39 519 590 696 724 749 753 825 900 807 753 40-44 391 511 580 687 715 742 746 819 895 803 45-49 319 384 502 571 678 707 734 740 813 889 50-54 285 311 375 492 561 667 697 724 731 805 55-59 244 274 301 364 479 547 652 683 712 720 60-64 186 231 260 287 349 461 529 633 666 696 65-69 141 169 211 241 268 328 436 504 607 642 70-74 101 119 145 184 214 241 299 402 469 571 75+ 112 130 158 200 263 332 403 504 671 860 TOTAL 7822 8448 8974 9474 10005 10539 11045 11508 11936 12340 BIRTH RATE 22.0 19.0 17.7 17.6 17.1 16.1 14.9 14.1 13.6 DEATH RATE 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.7 7.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.60 1.33 1.21 1.19 1.12 .99 .85 .73 .65 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.8 -2.1 -1.8 -1.5 -1.1 -.8 -.5 -.2 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.42 1.12 1.02 1.04 1.00 .91 .80 .71 .65 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.600 2.234 2.103 2.094 2.089 2.085 2.081 2.076 2.072 NRR 1.219 1.056 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 etO) - 80TH SEXES 70.32 71.60 72.95 74.35 75.30 76.29 77.33 78.42 79.58 e15) - BOTH SEXES 57.52 58.4 59.48 60.64 61.44 62.29 63.18 64.13 65.13 INR - BOTH SEXES 22.0 17.6 14.2 11.6 10.2 8.7 7.3 5.9 4.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0267 .0216 .0175 .0143 .0127 .0110 .0094 .0077 .0060 DEP. RATIO 63.5 59.4 53.8 47.6 45.5 45.9 48.0 49.5 51.6 54.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 139 Suary Projectfon for 25-Year Perfods SRI LANKA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 15837 18928 23663 26541 27406 27899 28201 28350 MALES 0-4 1002 819 830 843 845 844 844 844 5-9 923 818 843 849 846 844 843 843 10-14 835 876 863 852 844 842 843 843 15-19 833 973 867 844 840 841 842 843 20-24 768 889 835 &30 836 840 841 841 25-29 695 785 785 822 837 840 840 839 30-34 584 768 780 832 841 838 837 837 35-39 522 703 827 849 840 834 834 834 40-44 386 638 911 847 829 827 830 831 45-49 331 535 824 611 810 820 825 827 50-54 286 474 719 753 795 813 818 819 55-59 264 338 689 732 791 805 806 807 60-64 200 273 604 752 786 787 786 788 65-69 160 215 509 786 753 749 755 761 70-74 107 171 376 653 674 691 710 721 75+ 120 179 465 1069 1371 1546 1641 1684 TOTAL 8015 9454 11728 13127 13539 13763 13896 13961 FEMALES 0-4 961 783 792 804 806 805 804 804 5-9 881 783 804 810 806 804 804 804 10-14 807 840 825 812 805 803 803 804 15-19 798 935 829 805 801 803 804 804 20-24 760 855 802 793 799 803 804 804 25-29 718 m 757 788 802 804 804 803 30-34 599 758 756 800 807 805 803 803 35-39 519 724 807 819 808 802 801 802 40-44 391 687 895 821 800 797 800 801 45-49 319 571 813 791 785 794 799 800 50-54 285 492 731 742 777 794 798 799 55-59 244 364 712 733 784 795 796 795 60-64 186 287 666 771 794 791 789 790 65-69 141 241 607 836 784 774 778 783 70-74 101 184 469 730 737 747 764 774 75+ 112 200 671 1558 1972 2216 2355 2420 TOTAL 7822 9474 11936 13414 13867 14136 14306 14389 BIRTH RATE 19.5 15.9 13.1 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.8 6.2 8.6 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.9 -.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.19 .89 .46 .13 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.300 2.085 2.069 2.062 2.060 2.058 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 71.67 76.43 80.79 83.14 84.45 85.42 85.82 INR - BOTH SEXES 18.1 8.8 3.8 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 140 COUNTRIES, ECONOMI, AND TERRIORIHES TAIWAN, CHINA Projection (thousends) with NRR-1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N4F 19135 20313 21218 22062 22915 23740 24490 25135 25701 26192 MALES 0-4 1069 880 778 782 817 837 823 796 783 795 5-9 1005 1061 872 771 776 812 833 820 794 782 10-14 913 1000 1055 867 767 772 810 831 819 793 15-19 965 907 sn 1049 862 763 769 soT 830 819 20-24 997 954 896 982 1039 855 757 765 804 827 25-29 9fO 983 940 884 971 1029 846 751 760 800 30-34 857 937 971 928 873 961 1020 840 746 757 35-39 582 846 925 959 918 864 953 1013 835 743 40-44 449 572 834 913 948 908 856 945 1006 830 45-49 434 439 561 820 a99 935 896 846 935 996 50-54 418 421 427 547 801 880 916 879 831 919 55-59 454 400 404 411 528 774 853 889 855 810 60-64 349 423 375 380 389 501 n7 816 853 824 65-69 225 313 382 341 349 358 465 688 765 805 70-74 155 189 265 327 296 306 317 415 621 697 75+ 108 170 229 324 429 468 504 540 650 895 TOTAL 9930 10494 1090* 11285 11661 12023 12356 12642 12887 13092 FEMALES 0-4 1024 841 743 747 780 799 785 759 746 757 5-9 940 1017 834 737 741 776 795 783 757 745 10-14 861 936 1012 829 733 738 773 794 782 757 15-19 911 856 930 1006 825 730 735 771 793 781 20-24 953 901 8a6 920 998 818 725 732 769 792 25-29 914 941 889 835 911 990 812 720 729 768 30-34 825 903 931 8so 827 904 984 808 718 728 35-39 555 816 895 923 872 821 899 980 805 716 40-44 428 548 so0 887 915 866 816 894 976 803 45-49 421 422 S41 800 878 908 860 810 889 971 50-54 365 413 415 533 789 867 897 851 803 881 55-59 312 355 403 406 523 775 853 884 839 793 60-64 246 300 342 39 393 508 755 834 866 824 65-69 176 230 282 324 371 376 488 729 808 843 70-74 136 157 207 256 298 344 351 459 691 772 75+ 137 183 230 305 399 497 604 686 845 1168 TOTAL 9205 9819 10309 10777 11254 11717 12134 12494 12814 13099 BIRTH RATE 17.8 15.0 14.4 14.4 14.2 13.5 12.6 12.1 12.0 DEATH RATE 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.5 8.2 RATE OF UAT. INC. 1.30 .97 .87 .83 .77 .66 .55 .46 .38 NET IGRTION RATE -1.0 -1.0 -.9 -.7 -.6 -.4 -.3 -.1 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.19 .87 .78 .76 .71 .62 .52 .45 .38 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.950 1.750 1.750 1.803 1.855 1.905 1.954 2.002 2.048 NRR .926 .832 .835 .863 .889 .916 .941 .966 .991 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 74.02 74.93 75.94 76.98 77.76 78.57 79.41 80.28 81.17 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 60.79 61.51 62.31 63.17 63.81 64.47 65.16 65.87 66.62 IHR - BOTH SEXES 17.0 14.9 12.6 10.6 9.2 7.8 6.4 5.0 3.6 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0207 .0182 .0155 .0132 .0116 .0099 .0083 .0066 .0050 OEP. RATIO 54.5 52.3 48.1 42.8 41.8 42.5 44.6 49.3 54.4 59.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 141 Sim ary Projection for 25-Year Periods TAIWAN, CHINA AGE GROUP 1965 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 19135 22062 25701 26703 26435 26627 26840 26957 HALES 0-4 1069 7U 763 798 802 802 801 801 5-9 lOOS 71 794 05 803 801 801 800 10-14 913 86? 819 810 803 800 800 800 1S-19 965 1049 030 807 799 799 800 800 20-24 997 962 604 791 794 798 799 799 25-29 950 8" 760 776 793 797 797 797 30-34 857 928 46 78S 797 797 795 795 35-39 582 959 83S 807 800 794 792 792 40-44 449 913 1006 813 794 787 788 789 45-49 434 820 93S5 7 774 779 784 785 50-54 418 S4? 631 733 753 m 777 778 55-59 4S4 411 5ss 706 749 765 767 767 60-64 349 360 853 768 752 752 750 750 65-69 225 341 76S 884 730 721 721 724 70-74 155 327 621 764 661 666 678 686 75+ 106 324 650 1399 1444 1504 1575 1611 TOTAL 9930 11285 12J47 13230 13048 13133 13225 13277 FEMALES 0-4 1024 747 746 761 765 764 764 764 5-9 940 737 757 767 766 764 763 763 10-14 861 829 72 m 765 763 763 763 15-19 911 1006 795 769 762 762 763 763 20-24 9S3 920 769 756 758 762 763 763 2S-29 914 835 729 743 759 763 763 763 30-34 825 No0 718 754 765 764 763 762 35-39 SSS 923 $OS 77 769 763 761 762 40-44 428 t87 976 786 765 759 760 761 45-49 421 800 889 760 750 754 758 760 50-54 36S S33 803 717 735 752 758 759 55-59 312 406 839 700 741 755 757 756 60-64 246 390 66 776 757 755 752 751 65-69 176 324 606 923 756 744 742 745 70-74 136 256 691 615 716 718 n8 736 75+ 137 305 645 1896 2057 2152 2256 2309 TOTAL 9205 107m 12814 13472 13386 13494 13615 13680 BIRTH RATE 15.7 13.3 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.3 6.9 10.4 12.2 11.5 11.4 11.5 NET NIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .ff .61 .15 -.04 .03 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.033 1.699 2.061 2.061 2.059 2.058 2.057 *(O) - BOTH SEXES 74.99 78.65 t2.10 83.91 84.91 85.66 85.97 IHR - BOTH SEXES 14.9 7.9 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 142 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERrIORIES THAILN D Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 1995 AGE GROUP 1985 ¶990 1995 2000 200S 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL NuF 51683 55853 59818 685 68048 72128 75930 79427 82685 85766 MALES 0-4 3267 3014 237 3000 3111 3139 3094 3042 3029 3054 5-9 3174 3242 2996 ml 2987 3099 3128 3084 3034 3023 10-14 3157 3160 3230 2986 2913 2979 3092 3122 3079 3030 15-19 3093 3133 3139 3211 2971 2900 2967 3081 3112 3071 20-24 2652 3049 3092 3103 3181 2946 2878 2948 3063 3098 25-29 2261 2602 2997 3047 3066 3147 2918 2854 2928 3047 30-34 1845 2214 2554 2949 3007 3030 3115 2893 2834 2911 35-39 1425 1801 2166 2506 2904 2966 2994 3084 2869 2815 40-44 1152 1382 1751 2114 2455 2852 2919 2953 3048 2841 45-49 1027 106 1330 1693 2054 2392 2786 2859 2901 3002 50-54 839 970 1048 1267 1620 1973 2307 2697 2778 2829 55-59 678 m 897 974 1185 1524 1865 2192 2576 2668 60-64 493 601 688 04 879 1078 1397 1723 2041 2417 65-69 352 412 504 582 687 760 942 1235 1540 1843 70-74 248 268 316 391 457 547 616 775 1031 1306 75+ 224 261 294 34S 426 524 649 79 981 1311 TOTAL 25888 27987 29939 31894 33903 35856 37667 39321 40845 42266 FENALES 0-4 3143 2898 2820 2878 2980 3006 2961 2910 2896 2918 5-9 3069 3125 2886 2810 2870 2973 2999 2955 2905 2892 10-14 3040 3058 3118 2880 2806 2866 2969 2996 2953 2903 15-19 2981 3021 304S 3109 2874 2800 2861 2965 2992 2950 20-24 258s 2948 2997 3030 309 2865 2792 2854 2959 2987 25-29 2259 2546 2916 2976 3015 3085 2855 2784 2847 2953 30-34 1854 2220 2514 2892 2960 3001 3072 2845 2776 2840 35-39 1409 1817 2187 2488 2872 2942 2985 3058 2833 2767 40-44 1156 1376 1784 2l58 2465 2848 2919 2965 3040 2820 45-49 1081 1122 1343 1751 2128 2433 2815 2890 2939 3017 50-54 901 1039 1084 1307 1713 2086 2390 2771 2850 2904 55-59 725 851 989 1040 1264 1662 2030 2333 2713 2800 60-64 534 666 790 928 987 1205 1593 195S 2259 2640 65-69 407 468 592 712 851 913 1124 1498 1855 2161 70-74 298 330 386 498 613 743 810 1012 1369 1719 75+ 353 381 425 503 649 846 1088 1317 1655 2229 TOTAL 25795 27866 29878 31960 34144 36272 38263 40106 41840 43500 BIRTH RATE 22.8 20.5 19.5 18.8 17.8 16.6 15.5 14.8 14.3 DEATH RATE 7.1 6.7 6.3 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.56 1.38 1.32 1.28 1.17 1.03 .90 .81 .73 NET NIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.55 1.37 1.31 1.27 1.16 1.03 .90 .80 .73 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.600 2.254 2.129 2.109 2.103 2.096 2.090 2.084 2.078 NRR 1.182 1.044 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 64.99 66.91 68.81 70.69 71.82 73.00 74.26 75.58 76.99 0(15) - BOTH SEXES 52.93 54.30 55.80 57.35 58.32 59.35 60.44 61.60 62.84 INR - BOTH SEXES 30.8 24.8 20.0 16.2 14.4 12.6 10.7 8.9 7.1 qCS) - BOTH SEXES .0373 .0297 .0240 .0196 .0175 .0154 .0133 .0112 .0091 DEP. PATIO 67.0 56.5 52.2 47.3 45.7 45.0 44.7 45.2 4.7 49.5 COUNTRIBS, BCONOMIBS, AND TERRITORIES 143 summary Projectfon for 25-Year Periods THAILAND AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 51683 63855 82685 94226 98188 100560 102074 102813 MALES 0-4 3267 3000 3029 3060 3070 3070 3069 3068 5-9 3174 2921 3034 3070 3072 3068 3066 3066 10-14 3157 2986 3079 3081 3071 3065 3065 3065 15-19 3093 3211 3112 3070 3060 3060 3063 3064 20-24 2652 3103 3063 3030 3044 3054 3058 3059 25-29 2261 3047 2928 2989 3033 3048 aj51 3051 30-34 1845 2949 2834 2983 3034 3042 3042 3042 35-39 1425 2506 2869 3013 3033 3031 3031 3033 40-44 1152 2114 3048 3027 3006 3007 3015 3021 45-49 1027 1693 2901 2956 2947 2976 2995 3003 50-54 839 1267 2778 2780 2873 2937 2965 2974 55-59 678 974 2576 2618 2810 2890 2918 2927 60-64 493 804 2041 2537 2749 2817 2844 2859 65-69 352 582 1540 2511 2628 2683 2728 2756 70-74 248 391 1031 2131 2366 2466 2554 2601 75+ 224 345 981 3314 4437 5239 5753 5998 TOTAL 25888 31894 40845 46170 48231 49452 50215 50584 FEMALES 0-4 3143 2878 2896 2919 2927 2927 2926 2925 5-9 3069 2810 2905 2931 2930 2925 2924 2923 10-14 3040 2890 2953 2944 2929 2923 2923 2923 15-19 2981 3109 2992 2938 2921 2921 2922 2923 20-24 2585 3030 2959 2908 2911 2919 2922 2922 25-29 2259 2976 2847 2881 2910 2921 2922 2921 30-34 1854 2892 2776 2887 2920 2922 2920 2919 35-39 1409 2488 2833 2928 2928 2918 2916 2916 40-44 1156 2158 3040 2958 2915 2906 2909 2913 45-49 1081 1751 2939 2912 2877 2889 2903 2909 50-54 901 1307 2850 2780 2834 2878 2897 2902 55-59 725 1040 2713 2678 2817 2872 2887 2891 60-64 534 928 2259 2684 2824 2857 2867 2873 65-69 407 712 1855 2800 2803 2810 2830 2846 70-74 298 498 1369 2579 2679 2718 2m 2807 75+ 353 503 1655 5329 6831 7802 8419 8716 TOTAL 25795 31960 41840 48056 49957 51108 51859 52229 BIRTH RATE 20.8 16.6 13.5 12.5 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.7 6.3 8.4 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.41 1.03 .52 .16 .10 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.315 2.097 2.073 2.064 2.061 2.058 2.058 eO) - BOTH SEXES 66.99 73.20 78.67 81.94 83.72 85.06 85.59 INR - BOTH SEXES 25.2 12.6 5.7 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.1 144 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES TONGA Projeetlon (thousands) with NRRal by 2015 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 95 99 105 111 117 124 130 137 146 155 MALES 0-4 6 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 15-19 6 7 6 5 7 7 7 6 6 6 20-24 5 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 25-29 4 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 6 30-34 3 3 4 S 6 5 5 6 7 7 35-39 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 40-44 2 1 2 2 4 4 5 4 5 6 45-49 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 4 4 50-54 2 2 1 1 a 2 3 4 5 4 55-59 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 60-64 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 70-74 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 75+ 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 TOTAL 48 50 53 57 60 63 66 70 74 78 FEMALES 0-4 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 6 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 15-19 6 6 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 5 20-24 4 6 5 4 5 6 7 6 6 6 25-29 4 4 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 30-34 3 3 3 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 35-39 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 40-44 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 45-49 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 50-54 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 55-59 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 60-64 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 65-69 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 70-74 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 75+ 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 TOTAL 46 48 52 55 58 61 64 68 72 76 BIRTH RATE 31.5 30.5 26.6 22.7 20.1 18.4 17.9 17.6 16.5 DEATH RATE 6.8 6.2 5.7 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.46 2.43 2.09 1.76 1.50 1.31 1.27 1.25 1.13 NET MIGRATION RATE -16.5 -11.8 -9.2 -7.0 -5.0 -3.2 -1.5 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .81 1.26 1.17 1.06 1.00 .99 1.12 1.24 1.13 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.240 3.75 3.310 2.890 2.524 2.203 2.087 2.082 2.078 NRR 1.932 1.756 1.562 1.376 1.204 1.053 1.000 1.000 1.000 oCO) - BOTH SEXES 65.68 67.87 69.94 71.93 72.99 74.12 75.31 76.58 77.94 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 53.24 54.78 56.46 58.20 59.1S 60.17 61.25 62.40 63.64 IMR - BOTH SEXES 27.0 19.3 14.7 11.7 10.5 9.3 8.1 6.9 5.8 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0323 .0231 .0179 .0144 .0130 .0117 .0103 .0089 .0076 DEP. RATIO 76.7 70.9 71.6 72.5 65.1 55.5 48.9 45.5 45.0 46.6 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES 145 Summry Projection fc- 25-Year Periods TONGA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 95 111 146 180 196 201 203 205 MALES 0-4 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5*9 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 15-19 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 20-24 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 25-29 4 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 30-34 3 5 7 6 6 6 6 6 35-39 2 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 40-44 2 2 5 6 6 6 6 6 45-49 2 2 4 6 6 6 6 6 50-54 2 1 5 6 6 6 6 6 55-59 1 1 4 6 6 6 6 6 60-64 1 1 3 5 5 6 6 6 65-69 1 1 2 4 5 5 5 6 70-74 0 1 1 3 5 5 5 5 75+ 0 1 1 6 10 11 12 12 TOTAL 48 57 74 91 97 99 100 101 FEMALES 0-4 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5-9 5 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 10-14 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 15-19 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 20-24 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 25-29 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 30-34 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 35-39 3 3 6 5 6 6 6 6 40-44 2 2 5 6 6 6 6 6 45-49 2 2 4 6 6 6 6 6 50-54 2 2 4 6 6 6 6 6 55-59 1 1 4 6 6 6 6 6 60-64 1 1 2 5 5 6 6 6 65-69 1 1 2 4 5 6 6 6 70-74 0 1 1 3 5 6 6 6 75. 0 1 2 7 13 15 17 17 TOTAL 46 55 n 90 9u 101 103 104 BIRTH RATE 29.4 19.2 14.6 12.6 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.2 5.2 6.3 9.4 11.1 11.3 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE *12.4 -3.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.08 1.08 .84 .33 .10 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.727 2.326 2.073 2.064 2.061 2.058 2.058 e(0) BOTH SEXES 67.91 74.31 79.45 82.32 83.95 85.17 85.66 IR - BOTH SEXES 20.4 9.3 4.8 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.0 146 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES VANUATU Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 131 151 i77 20', 234 263 292 320 348 373 MALES 0-4 12 13 15 16 17 17 17 18 18 17 5-9 11 12 12 15 16 17 17 17 18 18 10-14 9 11 11 12 15 16 17 17 17 18 15-19 7 9 10 11 12 15 16 17 17 17 20-24 6 7 9 10 11 12 15 16 17 17 25-29 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 15 16 17 30-34 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 15 16 35-39 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 15 40-44 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 45-49 2 3 4 4 4 6 7 8 10 11 50-54 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 10 55-59 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 8 60-64 1 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 65-69 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 75+ 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 TOTAL 70 80 93 106 121 135 149 164 177 190 FEMALES 0-4 11 12 15 16 16 17 16 17 17 16 5-9 9 10 12 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 10-14 8 9 10 12 15 16 16 16 16 17 15-19 7 8 9 10 12 15 16 16 16 16 20-24 6 7 8 9 10 12 15 16 16 16 25-29 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 14 15 16 30-34 4 5 5 6 8 9 10 12 14 15 35-39 3 4 5 5 6 8 9 10 12 14 40-44 2 3 3 5 5 6 8 9 10 12 45-49 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 50-54 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 55-59 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 60-64 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 65-69 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 70-74 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 75+ 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 TOTAL 61 72 85 99 113 128 142 157 171 184 BIRTH RATE 38.4 40.0 36.0 32.1 28.5 25.1 23.3 21.1 18.6 DEATH RATE 8.1 7.2 6.2 5.4 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.02 3.27 2.98 2.68 2.36 2.05 1.87 1.66 1.40 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.4 -1.2 -.6 -.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROIJTH RATE 2.88 3.15 2.92 2.66 2.36 2.05 1.87 1.66 1.40 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.830 5.530 4.930 4.330 3.730 3.130 2.r7 2.464 2.186 NRR 2.477 2.412 2.196 1.963 1.710 1.452 1.302 1.168 1.047 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 63.42 65.21 67.15 69.04 70.31 71.61 72.96 74.35 75.79 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 55.97 56.70 57.64 58.60 59.19 59.80 60.44 61.11 61.81 INR - BOTH SEXES 75.1 65.3 55.3 45.9 38.5 31.1 23.7 16.3 8.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0998 .0848 .0708 .0578 .0486 .0393 .0299 .0206 .0112 DEP. RATIO 93.6 87.6 85.3 81.6 78.0 69.5 62.5 56.8 52.9 50.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 147 Suwnary ProJection for 25-Year Periods VANUATU AGE GROLUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 131 205 348 464 535 559 570 575 MALES 0-4 12 16 18 17 17 17 17 17 5-9 11 15 18 17 17 17 17 17 10-14 9 12 17 It 17 17 17 17 15-19 7 11 17 17 17 17 17 1. 20-24 6 10 17 17 !7 17 17 17 25-29 5 9 16 17 17 17 17 17 30-34 4 7 15 17 17 17 17 17 35-39 4 6 12 17 17 17 17 17 40-44 3 5 11 17 16 17 17 17 45-49 2 4 10 16 16 17 17 17 50-54 2 3 8 15 17 17 17 17 55-59 2 2 6 14 16 16 16 16 60-64 1 2 5 11 15 16 16 16 65-69 1 1 3 9 14 15 15 15 70-74 1 1 2 7 13 14 14 15 75+ 1 1 3 8 21 29 32 33 TOTAL 70 106 177 234 266 277 281 283 FEMALES 0-4 11 16 17 .7 16 16 16 16 5-9 9 15 17 17 16 16 16 16 10-14 8 12 16 16 16 16 16 16 15-19 7 10 16 16 16 16 16 16 20-24 6 9 16 16 16 16 16 16 25-29 5 8 15 17 17 16 16 16 30-34 4 6 14 17 16 16 16 16 35-39 3 5 12 16 16 16 16 16 40-44 2 5 10 16 16 16 16 16 45-49 2 3 9 16 16 16 16 16 50-54 1 3 7 15 16 16 16 16 55-59 1 2 6 14 16 16 16 16 60-64 1 2 5 11 15 16 16 16 65-69 1 1 4 9 15 15 16 16 70-74 0 1 3 7 14 15 16 16 75+ 0 1 3 11 28 41 46 48 TOTAL 61 99 171 230 269 283 289 292 BIRTH RATE 38.0 25.4 16.6 13.4 12.3 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.1 4.8 5.2 7.7 10.5 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.98 2.12 1.15 .57 .18 .08 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.370 3.157 2.099 2.067 2.062 2.059 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 65.45 71.93 77.69 81.27 83.30 84.85 85.45 IMR - BOTH SEXES 64.5 31.1 6.9 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 148 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES V T NAM Projection (thousands) with NRR*1 by 2015 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 58868 66312 74329 81964 89085 95587 102137 108960 115696 121993 MALES 0-4 4493 4851 5118 4962 4729 4470 4571 4809 4880 4810 5-9 4086 4424 4799 5077 4932 4706 4451 4555 4796 4870 10-14 3629 4057 4402 4780 5061 4919 4695 4442 4548 4790 15-19 3571 3596 4031 4377 4758 5040 4901 4680 4429 4536 20-24 2861 3515 3557 3993 4344 4726 5009 4874 4656 4409 25-29 2182 2799 3467 3516 3956 4309 4691 4976 4844 4631 30-34 1656 2129 2758 3425 3481 3922 4275 4658 4944 4817 35-39 1113 1613 2093 2718 3384 3445 3885 4238 4623 4912 40-44 915 1078 1578 2054 2675 3335 3399 3839 4193 4579 45-49 867 881 1046 1535 2004 2616 3268 3337 3775 4131 50-54 931 826 843 1003 1478 1935 2532 3172 3247 3683 55-59 758 868 772 790 945 1398 1838 2414 3036 3120 60-64 600 682 784 699 720 866 1289 1705 2254 2852 65-69 449 511 583 673 605 628 763 1146 1530 2040 70-74 317 351 401 460 536 488 514 632 962 1301 75+ 303 354 403 463 538 642 674 714 841 1184 TOTAL 28732 32535 36634 40526 44146 47445 50755 54191 57557 60665 FEMALES 0-4 4358 4677 4930 4773 4543 4287 4378 4599 4660 4587 5-9 3941 4301 4637 4900 4753 4527 4275 4367 4590 4653 10-14 3441 3917 4285 4624 4890 4745 4521 4269 4363 4586 15-19 3352 3416 3899 4270 4613 4880 4736 4514 4263 4358 20-24 2983 3314 3391 3878 4254 4599 4867 4725 4504 4256 25-29 2517 2940 3284 3367 3859 4237 4582 4852 4713 4495 30-34 1913 2477 2909 3257 3347 3840 4218 4565 4836 4701 35-39 1261 1879 2447 2880 3232 3325 3817 4197 4546 4819 40-44 1060 1235 1850 2415 2850 3202 3298 3790 4170 4521 45-49 1038 1034 1209 1816 2378 2811 3162 3261 3753 4136 50-54 1060 1004 1003 1177 1774 2328 2757 3108 3212 3704 55-59 848 1011 961 963 1135 1717 2260 2686 3038 3149 60-64 795 789 944 902 910 1079 1640 2170 2591 2945 65-69 575 709 707 853 822 836 1000 1534 2046 2465 70-74 448 477 591 596 727 711 735 891 1387 1877 75+ 546 596 647 767 852 1018 1135 1241 1466 2075 TOTAL 30136 33777 37695 41439 44939 48142 51382 54769 58139 61328 BIRTH RATE 32.1 29.9 25.8 22.3 19.5 18.5 18.1 17.2 16.0 DEATH RATE 7.5 6.8 6.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.46 2.30 1.97 1.67 1.41 1.33 1.29 1.20 1.06 NET MIGRATION RATE -.8 -.2 -.1 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.38 2.28 1.96 1.67 1.41 1.33 1.29 1.20 1.06 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.150 3.565 3.058 2.622 2.249 2.115 2.104 2.093 2.082 NRR 1.855 1.624 1.413 1.227 1.058 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 65.78 67.10 68.58 70.14 71.32 72.55 73.84 75.19 76.62 e05) - BOTH SEXES 55.43 56.00 56.77 57.74 58.59 59.48 60.42 61.42 62.47 IMR - BOTH SEXES 45.6 38.9 32.3 26.4 22.6 18.8 14.9 11.1 7.2 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0585 .0486 .0394 .0316 .0272 .0227 .0182 .0137 .0093 DEP. RATIO 82.4 78.8 73.6 67.1 58.8 50.3 45.0 43.8 45.3 47.4 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 149 Sumary ProJection for 25-Year Periods VIET NAM AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL H+F 58868 81964 115696 140739 151414 155184 157485 158645 HALES 0-4 4493 4962 4880 4766 4734 4732 4735 4737 5-9 4086 5077 4796 4707 4716 4729 4734 4734 10-14 3629 4780 4',48 4662 4721 4736 4736 4734 15-19 3571 4377 4i29 4688 4745 4741 4733 4730 20-24 2861 3993 '656 4774 4757 4730 4720 4721 25-29 2182 3516 .844 4816 4724 4700 4703 4708 30-34 1656 3425 4944 4717 4652 4671 4690 4697 35-39 1113 2718 4623 4451 4589 4659 4683 4686 40-"4 915 2054 4193 4309 4591 4664 4671 4668 45-49 e67 1535 3775 4494 4645 4651 4639 4636 50-54 951 1003 3247 4&03 4632 4576 4572 4584 55-59 758 790 3036 4573 4446 4433 4480 4513 60-64 600 699 2254 4095 4066 4265 4374 4418 65-69 449 673 1530 3466 3748 4102 4232 4270 70-74 317 460 962 2788 3609 3893 3995 4029 75+ 303 463 841 3865 7324 8243 8891 9249 TOTAL 28732 40526 57557 69776 74698 76526 77590 78115 FEMALES 0-4 4358 4773 4660 4543 4513 4511 4514 4516 5-9 3941 4900 4590 4488 4496 4509 4514 4514 10-14 3441 4624 4363 4447 4501 4516 4516 4514 15-19 3352 4270 4263 4477 4527 4523 4516 4513 20-24 2983 3878 4504 4570 4546 4519 4510 4510 25-29 2517 3367 4713 4632 4528 4502 4503 4508 30-34 1913 3257 4836 4559 4470 4484 4500 4507 35-39 1261 2880 4546 4323 4421 4483 4504 4506 40-44 1060 2415 4170 4211 4440 4501 4505 4501 45-49 1038 1816 3753 4427 4516 4510 4494 4489 50-54 1060 1177 3212 4592 4552 4474 4464 4472 55-59 848 963 3038 4650 4440 4391 4427 4454 60-64 795 902 2591 4282 4157 4306 4399 4435 65-69 575 853 2046 3806 3970 4269 4377 4404 70-74 448 596 1387 3242 4037 4250 4320 4339 75+ 546 767 1466 5713 10602 11911 12831 13351 TOTAL 30136 41439 58139 70963 76716 78659 79895 80531 BIRTH RATE 29.1 19.0 14.4 12.6 12.1 11.9 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.8 5.3 6.6 9.7 11.1 11.3 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.4 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.21 1.38 .78 .29 .10 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.517 2.220 2.076 2.066 2.061 2.059 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 67.26 72.78 78.37 81.74 83.59 84.99 85.54 INR - BOTH SEXES 38.9 18.7 5.8 3.4 2.7 2.2 2.1 150 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES WESTERN SAMOA Projection (thousards) with NRRz1 by 2020 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 157 165 178 193 211 231 250 268 286 304 MALES 0-4 12 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 5-9 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 13 12 13 10-14 12 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 13 12 15-19 12 11 10 10 12 13 13 12 12 13 20-24 9 11 10 10 10 12 13 13 12 12 25-29 6 7 10 10 9 10 12 13 13 12 30-34 4 5 6 9 10 9 10 11 13 13 35-39 3 4 4 6 9 9 9 10 11 13 40-44 3 3 3 4 6 9 9 9 10 11 45-49 3 3 2 3 4 6 8 9 9 10 50-54 3 2 2 2 3 4 6 8 9 9 55-59 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 8 8 60-64 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 7 65-69 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 75+ 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 TOTAL 83 87 93 101 110 119 128 137 146 155 FEMALES 0-4 10 12 13 13 12 12 * 12 12 12 12 5-9 10 9 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 10-14 10 9 9 11 13 13 12 12 12 12 15-19 10 9 9 9 11 13 13 12 12 12 20-24 7 9 8 8 8 11 13 13 12 12 25-29 6 6 8 8 8 8 11 13 13 12 30-34 4 5 5 7 8 8 8 11 13 13 35-39 3 4 4 5 7 8 8 8 11 13 40-44 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 8 8 11 45-49 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 8 8 50-54 2 3 3 2 3 4 5 7 7 8 55-59 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 7 7 60-64 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 6 65-69 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 70-74 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 75+ 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 TOTAL 74 78 85 93 102 111 121 130 140 149 BIRTH RATE 34.1 34.0 29.8 25.4 23.0 21.2 19.2 18.0 17.1 DEATH RATE 7.2 6.9 6.4 5.9 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.68 2.70 2.34 1.96 1.74 1.59 1.41 1.31 1.22 NET MIGRATION RATE -17.4 -11.7 -6.5 -2.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .94 1.53 1.69 1.76 1.74 1.59 1.41 1.31 1.22 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.839 4.539 3.939 3.339 2.911 2.538 2.213 2.095 2.082 NRR 2.155 2.054 1.809 1.554 1.364 1.196 1.050 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 65.42 66.60 67.99 69.53 70.75 72.02 73.35 74.74 76.19 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 55.59 56.08 56.70 57.57 58.40 59.28 60.20 61.18 62.20 IMR - BOTH SEXES 50.0 43.9 37.1 30.6 26.2 21.8 17.4 13.0 8.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0651 .0559 .0459 .0371 .0319 .0266 .0214 .0162 .0109 DEP. RATIO 79.9 77.1 78.5 78.1 69.6 59.3 51.8 47.4 45.1 44.6 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 151 Suunary Projection for 25-Year Periods WESTERN SAMOA AGE GROUJP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 157 193 286 362 400 413 420 424 MALES 0-4 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 5-9 11 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 10-14 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 15-19 12 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 20-24 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 25-29 6 10 13 12 12 13 13 13 30-34 4 9 13 12 12 13 13 13 35-39 3 6 11 12 12 13 13 13 40-44 3 4 10 12 12 12 12 12 45-49 3 3 9 12 12 12 12 12 50-54 3 2 9 12 12 12 12 12 55-59 2 2 8 12 11 12 12 12 60-64 2 2 5 10 11 12 12 12 65-69 1 2 3 8 10 11 11 11 70-74 1 1 2 7 9 10 11 11 75+ 1 1 2 9 18 21 23 25 TOTAL 83 101 146 182 197 203 207 208 FEMALES 0-4 10 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 5-9 10 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 10-14 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 15-19 10 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 20-24 7 8 12 12 12 12 12 12 25-29 6 8 13 12 12 12 12 12 30-34 4 7 13 12 12 12 12 12 35-39 3 5 11 12 12 12 12 12 40-44 3 4 8 12 12 12 12 12 45-49 3 3 8 12 12 12 12 12 50-54 2 2 7 12 12 12 12 12 55-59 2 2 7 12 11 12 12 12 60-64 2 2 4 11 12 12 12 12 65-69 1 2 3 8 11 12 12 12 70-74 1 1 2 7 11 11 11 12 75+ 1 1 3 11 25 31 34 35 TOTAL 74 93 140 181 203 209 213 215 BIRTH RATE 32.5 21.1 15.3 12.9 12.2 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 6.8 5.3 6.0 9.0 11.Q 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -11.6 -.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.39 1.56 .95 .40 .12 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.399 2.547 2.076 2.066 2.061 2.059 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 66.73 72.28 78.02 81.49 83.45 84.92 85.50 IMR - BOTH SEXES 43.7 21.9 6.7 3.5 2.7 2.2 2.1 Policy Research Working Paper Series Contact Title Author Date for paper WPS1 006 Preparing Muttiyear Railway Jorge M. Rebelo October 1992 A. Turner Investment Plans: A Market-Oriented 30933 Approach WPS1007 Global Estimates and Projections Rodolfo A. Bulatao October 1992 0. Nadora of Mortality by Cause, 1970-2015 Patience W. Stephens 31091 WPS1 008 Do the Poor Insure? A Synthesis of Harold Alderman October 1992 C. Spooner the Literature on Risk and Christina H. Paxson 32116 Consumption in Developing Countries WPS1009 Labor and Women's Nutrition: Paul A. Higgins October 1992 C. Spooner A Study of Energy Expenditure, Harold Alderman 32116 Fertility, and Nutritional Status in Ghana WPS1010 Competition and Efficiency in Dimitri Vittas October 1992 W. Pitayatonakarn Hungarian Banking Craig Neal 37664 WPS1 011 How Tax Incentives Affect Decisions Robin Boadway November 1992 C. Jones to Invest in Developing Countries Anwar Shah 37754 WPS1012 The Brady Plan, the 1989 Mexican Haluk Unal November 1992 W. Patrawimolpon Debt Reduction Agreement, and Bank Asli Demirg0q-Kunt 37664 Stock Returns in the United States Kwok-Wai Leung and Japan WPS1013 The Impact of Mexico's Retraining Ana Revenga November 1992 D. Young Program on Employment and Wages Michelle Riboud 30932 Hong Tan WPs1014 Ethnicity, Education, and Earnings George Psacharopoulos November 1992 L. Longo in Bolivia and Guatemala 39244 WPS1015 Benefit Incidence Analysis in Thomas M. Selden November 1992 C. Jones Devebping Countries Michael J. Wasylenko 37754 WPS1016 Europe and Central Asia Region, My T. Vu November 1992 0. Nadora Middle East and North Africa Region Eduard Bos 31091 Population Projections, 1992-93 Ann Levin Edition WPS1017 Rural Poverty, Migration, and the Richard E. Bilsborrow November 1992 WDR Environment in Developing Countries: 31091 Three Case Studies WPS1018 Tariff and Tax Reform: Do World Anand Rajaram November 1992 P. Pender Bank Recommendations Integrate 37851 Revenue and Protection Objectives? Policy Research Working Paper Series Contact Title Author Date for paper WPS1019 How Effective are Directed Credit Anita M. Schwarz November 1992 M. Raggambi Policies in the United States? 37664 A Literature Survey WPS1020 Another Look at Population and Nancy Birdsall November 1992 S. Rothschild and Global Warming 37460 WPS1021 Measuring Welfare Changes from Jonathan R. Coleman November 1992 D. Gustafson Commodity Price Stabilization in Chris Jones 33714 Small Open Economies WPS1022 A New Approach to Evaluating Trade James E. Anderson November 1992 M. T. Sanchez Policy J. Peter Neary 33731 WPS1023 Tariff Index Theory James E. Anderson November 1992 M. T. Sanchez 33731 WPS1024 An Exact Approach for Evaluating Will Martin November 1992 D. Gustafson the Benefits from Technological Julian M. Alston 33714 Change WPS1 025 Openness and Economic Kazi M. Matin November 1992 D. Ballantyne Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa: 38004 Evidence from Time-Seres Cross- Country Analysis WPS1 026 Financial Liberalization and Paul D. McNelis November 1992 A. Maraiion Adjustment in Chile and New Zealand Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel 31450 WPS1027 Lessons from Bank Privatization Guillermo Barnes November 1992 W. Pitayatonakarn in Mexico 37664 WPS1028 Socioeconomic and Ethnic Harry Anthony Patrinos November 1992 L. Longo Determinants of Grade Repetition George Psacharopoulos 39244 in Bolivia and Guatemala WPS1029 Controlling Tropical Deforestation: Robert T. Deacon November 1992 P. Pender An Analysis of Alternative Policies 37851 WPS1 030 Measuring the Effects of Urban Alan J. Krupnick November 1992 P. Pender Transportation Policies on the 37851 Environment: A Survey of Models WPS1031 Measuring the Possibilities of Robert Bacon November 1992 P. Pender Interfuel Substitution 37851 WPS1032 East Asia and Pacific Region, Eduard Bos November 1992 0. Nadora South Asia Region Population My T. Vu 31091 Projections, 1992-93 Edition Ann Levin