PROCESS NOTE NORTH-EAST NIGERIA RECOVERY AND PEACE BUILDING ASSESSMENT The RPBA in North-East Nigeria was undertaken between January and May of 2016, and covered the six North Eastern states of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe. It responded to a Government of Nigeria request to assess the impact of, and propose strategic inter- ventions to address the devastation caused by the conflict with Boko Haram. The conflict had led to the loss of an estimated 20,000 lives, and displacement of 1.8 million people. The crisis exacerbated the strains on a population that was already among the most underdeveloped and vulnerable in the country. The RPBA was completed in March 2016, and incorporated into the government plan for the affected states, Rebuilding the North East: The Buhari Plan. BACKGROUND By mid-2015, nearly 15 million people had been affected by the conflict with Jama’atu Ahlis Lidda’awati Wal-Jihad, also known as Boko Haram, and the resulting military operations in North-East Nigeria. The conflict had become particularly intense from 2014, leading to a loss of an estimated 20,000 lives. Over 1.8 million people were displaced, of which 170,000 had sought refuge in neighbouring countries. The conflict had triggered a humanitarian crisis, with increased food inse- curity, and pressure on already overstretched and damaged basic social services. It exacerbated existing socioeconomic disparities, adding further strains to a population already among the most underdeveloped and vul- nerable in the country. Destruction in Borno State Social cohesion had also been deeply eroded, with social interaction in- creasingly challenging. This was compounded by an atmosphere of violence linked to communal, property, and land disputes, and retaliation for conflict-related violence. PRE-ASSESSMENT PHASE In August 2015, the Government of Nigeria, through the Office of the Vice President, requested assistance from the World Bank for an assessment of needs in the North East, and a review of, and support to, existing government plans. Based on the Joint Declara- tion1 a joint European Union, United Nations and World Bank scoping mission took place in September. The scoping mission met with representatives from government and the international community in order to define steps leading up to the assessment. These included a review of existing federal2 and state3 level plans, engagement between federal and state governments, and a shared understanding of the causes of the crisis in order to determine thematic areas for the assessment. As part of this pre-assessment phase, video and telephone calls were held between EU, UN, and WB teams, and focal points in fed- eral and state governments. This interaction included discussions on composition of team members for the assessment, the timing and output of the assessment, and a proposed schedule for visits to the six states. The pre-assessment took place between Septem- ber and December 2015, and was essential in preparing for the assessment. ASSESSMENT, PRIORITIZATION, AND PLANNING PHASE The assessment was launched at the end of January 2016 with a 2-day training and information event hosted by the Vice-President’s Office of the Government of Nigeria. Over 200 participants attended the launch, repre- senting federal and state governments, multilateral and bilateral donors, CSOs, IDPs, and the private sector. The launch workshop was followed by field visits to the affected states of Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Taraba, Bor- no, and Yobe. Based on the shared analysis of the crisis, four strategic recovery and peacebuilding objectives were identified: Meeting in Adamawa State i. Contribute to the safe, voluntary and dignified return and resettlement of displaced populations ii. Improved human security, reconciliation and violence prevention iii. Enhanced government accountability and citizen engagement in service delivery iv. Increased equity in the provision of basic services and employment opportunities A set of recovery and peacebuilding principles were identified, including national leadership and ownership, respect for humanitar- ian standards, human rights, conflict sensitivity, and broad-based participation. To achieve these objectives, the assessment was divided into three thematic components: §§ Peacebuilding, stability and social cohesion; §§ Infrastructure and social sectors, and §§ Economic recovery. Cross-cutting issues were identified, including gender, human rights, explosive remnants of war, and youth. A four-year time-frame was agreed, with a Stabilisation Phase in Years 1-2, and a Recovery Phase in Years 3-4. This structure reflected the reality of the situation in the North-East, with some geographic areas anticipating return of IDPs in the short term, and other areas facing more challenging security environments, expecting returns over the medium to long term. 1 The 2008 Joint Declaration on Post-Crisis Assessments and Recovery Planning 2 The Presidential Initiative for the North-East (PINE). 3 The North-East States Transformation Strategy (NEST). Scenario planning Due to the fluid nature of the crisis, three possible scenarios were proposed in the RPBA. §§ Status quo scenario: that Boko Haram retains the ability to periodically stage attacks in the North-East, and occasionally further south or Abuja. §§ Best-case scenario: that government and coordinated international action limits the frequency, intensity and scope of attacks in the North-East. §§ Worst-case scenario: a resurgence of Boko Haram. The Status Quo scenario was used to develop the RPBA’s recommendations. RPBA teams and organization Data assessment and report writing teams were organized by component, with federal and state government representatives work- ing alongside experts from the tripartite agencies to collect and collate data, and to determine findings and recommendations. Component teams began their work in mid-February, starting with presentations by state governments on data on the impact of the crisis. Where security concerns prevented access, satellite imagery was utilized to assist in data collection for the assessment. Satel- lite-based data collection proved most useful in the assessment of environmental damages to forest areas, and in damages to transit and transport infrastructure. VALIDATION AND FINALIZATION PHASE Component teams worked during February and March to produce their assessment reports. This was an iterative process, including engagement with civil society and the private sector. In March and April 2016, meetings were held at federal and state governments to consult on and validate a consolidated assessment report. Of particular note were the meetings across the various state gov- ernments, and the engagement between federal and state governments. Recovery and peacebuilding priorities were defined in relation to the analysis of the causes of crisis, and the principles for recovery and peacebuilding. The RPBA was finalized in May 2016, and was presented in three volumes. The first volume is the synthesis report, summarizing the findings from all states and all sectors. The second volume provides detail by component, and the third volume comprises the dedicated state reports. DATA COLLECTION TOOLS UTILIZED The RPBA team used a variety of data collection tools to augment existing information. These included: Conflict analysis Understanding the causes of the crisis was a critical step in developing the thematic areas to be assessed. This was done in two stag- es. The first stage involved a review of key documentation; the second step included discussion and agreement on the causes of the conflict across international partners, and federal and state governments. This was important as the federal and state governments recognized the multiple causes of crisis that included aspects of ideology, environment, poverty and governance. The analysis also mapped out possible scenarios of evolution of the crisis, with a view to identifying the strategic and operational implications for implementation of recovery strategies and interventions proposed under the RPBA. The analysis guided the development of the framework of strategic outcomes and priorities for recovery, and provided the means for the prioritization and sequencing of the needs identified in the three components of the assessment. Displacement analysis The IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix was utilized to feed the analysis, tracking migration flows and IDP registration. The social team also researched and recommended return strategies through desk-based reviews, interviews with relevant stakeholders, and scenario planning. The analysis also reported on displacement-related impacts and needs, allowing each state to develop the right recovery interven- tions based on local needs, priorities and the security situation. Due to the highly volatile nature of the conflict, the displacement analysis was updated several times throughout the RPBA process. Satellite imagery analysis Several of the most affected areas remained inaccessible to the RPBA team and government officials. As a result, the team had to rely on alternative sources of data collection. A private firm was hired to conduct satellite imagery based analysis. This technology was used to estimate the impact of the violence on physical infrastructure such as roads, and on the environment. It also used ‘night lights analysis’ to augment the findings of the displacement analysis. Gender analysis UN Women provided the RPBA team with a gender expert to work alongside sector and component teams to ensure that gender sensitivity was maintained in the development of their respective reports. To ensure this, the expert circulated a checklist against which sector and component teams would compare the development of their assessments and recommendations. Notably, as a re- sult of this, social cohesion and violence prevention, including sexual and gender based violence (SGBV), were costed as an impact and an intervention in the Peacebuilding, stability and social cohesion component of the report. Stakeholder and capacity analysis As the RPBA process unfolded, the team also conducted a stakeholder and capacity analysis with a view to establishing the financ- ing and implementation options for the RPBA’s recommendations. The analysis was conducted through an initial desk review, and augmented through learnings from the RPBA missions. Damage, loss and needs assessment Given the scale of impact on physical infrastructure and on associated service delivery, the team utilized a damage, loss and needs assessment to estimate the impact on such sectors as transportation, health and education. The team estimated the impact of the conflict, and the resources needed to reconstruct affected infrastructure and respite social services. POST-ASSESSMENT PROCESS The RPBA was incorporated into the government’s plan for the affected states, Rebuilding the North East: The Buhari Plan. The plan was prepared by the Presidential Committee on the North-East initiative (PCNI). Nigeria provides a good example of sustained commitment and engagement by the government with support from the Joint Declaration Partners. Once the RPBA had been completed, the Joint Declaration partners provided support in organizing a workshop on implementation, and through support from the UK Department for International Development, in mobilizing resources to finance detailed operational planning. At the same time, the international community provided support to three of the most affected States to develop detailed state-level plans.