90339 The International Comparison Program Status Report to the UN Statistical Commission: March 4, 2003 Prepared by the Global Office of the International Comparison Program for the thirty-fourth session of the UN Statistical Commission Agenda item 4 (e) ICP Status Report to UN SC March 4, 2003 Introduction The ICP Global Office welcomes the opportunity to provide a progress report and outline future plans for the current round of the International Comparison Program to the Statistical Commission and heads of National Statistical Offices – all of whom will have an important role in this comprehensive exercise. Overview Several key events have taken place since the report on the ICP was submitted to the UN Statistical Commission in November 2002. The Global Manager is in place and the office has visited several regions to discuss progress. The first meeting of the Executive Board was held in February 2003 and the first joint meeting of the Regional Coordinators will take place in March. Fund raising efforts continue, a detailed work plan and timetable has been established, the ICP Tool Pack for data collection is currently being tested, and the new Handbook for ICP practitioners is being drafted. Governance (i) ICP Executive Board: The Board convened for its first meeting at World Bank Headquarters on February 27 and 28, 2003. Mr. Dennis Trewin of the Australian Bureau of Statistics was elected Chairman. The Board membership is shown in Annex 1. (ii) ICP Council: The Executive Board agreed to a change in scope of the ICP Council from ultimate custodian of the program to an information sharing vehicle allowing the ICP practitioners to provide progress reports to, and receive feedback from, a wide audience. Membership of the Council will encompass donors (including business organizations, bi-lateral donors, international and aid agencies). Academia, researchers, the media and other users may also attend Council meetings by invitation. It is envisaged that communication with the Council will take place through a website interchange and occasional forums. Management (iii) Budget: The scope and cost of the global program remain critical issues. An Expert Review Panel, convened in 2002, made a major recommendation to link regional results by using twenty countries to price a common list of goods comparable across regions, thereby establishing a ring comparison exercise. It was also recommended that the program cover the full GDP and be based on annual, national prices. Taking these recommendations into consideration, the total cost of the ICP (in non-OECD countries) has been estimated at around US$37.5 million. Since ICP Status Report to UN SC March 4, 2003 2 the last UN SC meeting, there has been aggressive fund raising activity with over US$30 million being pledged in cash or in-kind support, over half of which is for Africa. The net result of these activities is that a deficit of around US$7 million over three years now exists. Additional fund raising activities will need to take place and the UN SC is asked to assist and advise in this effort. The program has benefited from the bilateral agencies and international organizations that have already made pledges. However, those who have not yet come forward are encouraged to do so to ensure the success of this round. If funds still fall short, the Executive Board will review the scope and coverage of the program. Two main alternatives to reduce costs have been identified: 1. Reduce the number of countries included in the ICP (except Africa where sufficient funds are available); 2. Reduce the scope of the ICP to consumption items only i.e. exclude capital items. The Executive Board share a strong preference for (2) if there is a need to cut the costs of the program. Another possibility is to reduce the number of countries in the ring comparison exercise. This was not favored as the savings would be relatively small and the quality of the ICP results would be affected. (iv) Project plan: A first draft of the project plan and timeline has been prepared and is shown in Annex 2. It presents the key activities leading up to data collection beginning in April 2004. While it is ambitious, the Executive Board broadly approved its activities and deadlines, but emphasized that countries need to be made aware at an early stage of the commitment needed from them and the key milestones they are expected to meet. Key performance indicators will be developed to monitor progress, alongside a risk assessment and possible contingency plans. (v) Regional Coordinators’ Workshop: The Regional Coordinators will be coached in the preparation of ICP product lists and the management of the project across the countries in their regions. Eurostat and the OECD are providing considerable support for this effort. The meeting will take place March 24-28, 2003 in Luxembourg and will be the first opportunity for the Global Office and the Regional Coordinators to discuss collectively organizational issues, establish work plans, and agree upon timetables. (vi) Memorandum of Understanding (MOU): A MOU between the Global Office and each Regional Coordinator will be finalized by the end of March. A similar template will be prepared for an MOU between the Regional Coordinators and the National Statistical Offices. These will be drafted to ICP Status Report to UN SC March 4, 2003 3 allow flexibility for differences in national mechanisms and priorities and will be finalized by the end of June. Communication and advocacy (vii) ICP website: The ICP website is being redesigned to be more informative and user-friendly. As well as providing the public interface for a wide range of users, it will provide the main communication and discussion channel, through password protected areas, between the Global, Regional and National Coordinators, and allow the Executive Board to liaise with its secretariat. (viii) ICP newsletter: A newsletter summarizing current issues and reporting on progress in each region and globally will be available in hardcopy form on a quarterly basis. (ix) ICP explanatory brochures: There is a pressing need to inform and engage the NSOs and their colleagues about the importance of the ICP and its uses at the country level. To this end discussions are underway to determine the content of brochures to present various aspects of the ICP that would provide some of the advocacy material needed by National Statisticians and the Regional Coordinators to promote the ICP at the country-level. (x) ICP branding: The Executive Board recommended that the ICP be identified in its own right, both globally and regionally, and not as a sub-project of the host organizations. Technical issues (xi) Technical Advisory Group: The Executive Board has asked that the Global Manager appoint a number of experts to serve on the Technical Advisory Group. (xii) ICP Handbook: The scope and content of a new Handbook has been determined and the chapters defined. The first chapters are due to be completed in time for the Regional Coordinators’ Workshop in March 2003. (xiii) The ICP ToolPack: The World Bank has prepared a software package designed to handle all data handling requirements for the ICP which can also be used to assist the CPI in each country. The ToolPack software is currently being tested in fourteen countries in Asia (India, China, Philippines), CIS (Russia) Europe (Italy and Austria), Africa (Uganda, Egypt, Tunisia, Niger, and South Africa), Latin America (Peru, Chile and Argentina). (xiv) Statistical Capacity Assessment: A comprehensive statistical assessment program will be conducted in 50 African countries using indicators developed ICP Status Report to UN SC March 4, 2003 4 by PARIS21. We are proposing similar initiatives in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East to link the ICP implementation with capacity building. The Executive Board emphasized the importance of effective coordination between the ICP with other capacity building activities such as PARIS21. Regional Activities (xv) The Global Office has undertaken missions to Africa, West Asia, Latin America, and Asia to review activities. It also works closely with Eurostat and OECD to ensure comparability with the countries covered by those organizations. An update of the status in Africa and Asia follows. (xvi) In Africa, a comprehensive statistical assessment program has been launched. The first round covers 30 countries. The findings of the assessments will help to determine resource allocation for national data collection efforts, and to estimate technical assistance needs both for ICP and national statistical work. Most importantly the findings would shed light on how best to integrate the ICP and national statistical programs. (xvii) A regional ICP meeting is scheduled for May 2003 in Addis Ababa, with a view to presenting the regional strategy paper and implementation plan to heads of NSOs. Two people are invited from each participating country. Forty five to fifty countries are expected to take part. (xviii) The Asia program was reviewed in more detail at a February 5-7, 2003 meeting that included the ADB, ABS, ESCAP, and the ICP Global office. A plan emerged from this meeting that would entail the ABS sub-contracting with the ABD to lead the pre-survey activities. The major activity would be to develop the regional product list that countries would use to develop their lists for the price collection. The ABS would also lead the training program to prepare the countries for the price collection. ICP Status Report to UN SC March 4, 2003 5 Annex 1: ICP Executive Board Members Members Dr. Ifzal Ali Asian Development Bank Ms. Shaida Badiee World Bank Mr. Len Cook Office for National Statistics, Great Britain Mr. Yves Franchet Eurostat Mr. Enrico Giovannini OECD Mr. Carlos M. Jarque Inter-American Development Bank Mr. K.K. Jaswal Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, India Dr. Henock Kifle African Development Bank Professor Ben Kiregyera Uganda Bureau of Statistics Mr. Li Xiaochao National Bureau of Statistics, China Mr. Koffi Nguesssan ENSEA Mr. José Antonio Ocampo ECLAC Mr. Jacob Ryten Statistics Canada Mr. Vladimir L. Sokolin Goskomstat of Russia Ms. Mervat Tallawy ESCWA Mr. Dennis Trewin (Chair) Australian Bureau of Statistics Annex 2. ICP Timeline for Total Consumption Global Coordinator (GC), Regional Coordinator (RC) and National Coordinator (NC) March 24-28, 2003 Workshop to prepare Regional Coordinators to develop the product lists for the ICP. Review of work plan, time lines and plans to price government, investment on construction and equipment. March-April 2003 GC,RC: Determine Ring Countries and seek their cooperation with the proposal that 20 countries survey two price lists, one for their region, the other to provide a link across regions. April 1- May 15, 2003 RC: Obtain specifications of items from each country that they price in their CPI. Determine availability of National Accounts data by participating country. April 1-30 2003 RC,GC: Establish the basic headings to be used in each region. ICP Status Report to UN SC March 4, 2003 6 April 1-May 30, 2003 GC: Provide draft product lists for the RCs. RC: Meet with heads of NSOs to discuss the ICP process. May 1-Oct 30, 2003 GC: Prepare specifications and pricing lists for government, investment on construction and equipment. May 1-30, 2003 RC: Prepare first draft of Pre-survey list. June 1-30, 2003 RC: Hold workshops that include national price statisticians and national accountants to prepare them to develop product lists and estimates of basic heading expenditures. Also cover importance of consistency between national accounts and prices collected. Agree on methods to be used to estimate national average prices and annual average prices. RC, GC, and NC: Agree on level of collection (full GDP vs sub aggregates) and methods to use to estimate national, annual average prices. June 1- 30, 2003 Ring Coordinator: Distribute pre-survey lists (pre-survey questionnaire) to ring countries. July 1-September 1, 2003 RC: Visit countries with most diversified lists to assist them in pre-survey list work. July 1-November 30, 2003 GC: Procure computer equipment and software for countries and regional offices. Also procure digital cameras for RC. September 1-30, 2003 RC: obtain results of country’s pre-survey work on item list. Sept 1-Oct 30, 2003 RC: prepare draft item lists for each country that ensure each country prices items that are important and available in other countries for comparison purposes. Regional draft item lists made available to the Ring coordinator. November 3-7, 2003 GC, RC: Workshop in Luxembourg. Review draft product lists with Ring coordinator to ensure overlap between regions. ICP Status Report to UN SC March 4, 2003 7 Train the trainer exercises to prepare the RC to train respective countries in price collection, outlets to survey, use of the Tool Pack software, etc. Review of time lines through data collection, final sign-off of the regional/national MOUs. Dec 1-12, 2003 Workshop and meeting with National Coordinators. Review overlap of lists between countries and jointly agree on items to be priced to ensure overlap. Agree on outlets to be priced and the geographic and time coverage. Dec15, -Jan 15,2004 RC: Send final product lists to countries via the tool pack. Also, Ring Coordinator send Ring final product list to Ring countries. Jan 1-March 30, 2004 RC and Ring Coordinator: Prepare pictures of items to be priced and loaded into the ToolPack software for each country. Jan 1-March 30, 2004 Product lists are translated into desired languages, countries prepare for data collection. April 2004-Mar 2005 Price collection on major components of household consumption. Government, construction investment, and equipment investment data collections dependent on pricing lists and time tables prepared by regional and global coordinators and availability of data from existing price index sources. ICP Status Report to UN SC March 4, 2003 8