63912 ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE Social Synthesis Report ©2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 www.worldbank.org socialdevelopment@worldbank.org All Rights Reserved This paper has not undergone the review accorded to official World Bank publications. The �ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail pubrights@worldbank.org Acknowledgments iii Executive Summary v 1. Introduction and Overview to the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Study 1 2. Background to Social Component of EACC Study 5 3. Study Methodology 9 4. Conceptual Framework 17 5. Evidence from the Field: Understanding Vulnerability to Climate Change 23 6. Adaptation to Climate Change 41 7. Key Findings and Recommendations for Achieving Climate-Resilient Development 53 8. Next Steps and Challenges Ahead 59 Annex 1: Bangladesh Study Overview 61 Annex 2: Bolivia Study Overview 67 Annex 3: Ethiopia Study Overview 73 Annex 4: Ghana Study Overview 79 Annex 5: Mozambique Study Overview 85 Annex 6: Vietnam Study Overview 91 Annex 7: Fieldwork Methodology 99 Annex 8: Participatory Scenario Development Approaches 103 Annex 9: List Of Outputs from EACC-Social Component 109 References 110 Contents ii ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Acknowledgments ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT iii The social component of the Economics of Adapta- study under the leadership of Berhanu Adenew with tion to Climate Change (EACC) study (hereafter Fanaye Tadesse, while the �eldwork was undertaken ‘study’) was developed through the joint efforts of the by Royal Haskoning-Netherlands led by Arjan World Bank Social Development (SDV) and Envi- Ruijs and Shebelle Consulting in Addis Ababa, led ronment Departments (ENV) and AFR, EAP, LCR, by Asfaw Mekonnen with Kidist Gebreselassi. In and SAR Regions of the World Bank; ESSA Tech- Ghana, Tony Dogbe of Participatory Development nologies Ltd and the International Institute for Sus- Associates (PDA) led a team comprising Joseph Yaro tainable Development (IISD), Canada; and research (University of Ghana at Legon), David Pessey, Emilia institutions in Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Arthur, George Ahiable, Tia Yahaya,and Kamil Mozambique, and Vietnam. Abdul Salam (all PDA). In Mozambique, Tony Patt from the International Institute for Applied Sys- The study was undertaken by a core team led by Robin tems Analysis (IIASA) led a team comprising Raul Mearns and comprising Anne Kuriakose, Carina Varela and Isilda Nhantumbo. In Vietnam, Pamela Bachofen, Nilufar Ahmad and Minna Kononen (all McElwee from Arizona State University led a team SDV). Carina Bachofen took the lead in preparing comprising Tuyen Nghiem, Hue Le, and Huong Vu this synthesis report, drawing on the six country Dieu (all of the Center for Natural Resources and reports (all available separately), with substantial con- Environmental Studies, Vietnam National Univer- tributions from Anne Kuriakose, and under the over- sity, Hanoi (CRES)), Dang Thu Phuong (Challenge all guidance of Robin Mearns. The study was designed to Change), and Nguyen Van Be (Dragon Institute, and implemented in close collaboration with the team Can Tho University). leader for the overall EACC study (Sergio Margulis), and Ana Bucher, Laurent Cretegny, Urvashi Narain, Support in methodology and workshop design and Kiran Pandey, Robert Schneider (all ENV) and sec- for training of trainers for the Participatory Sce- tor consultants. Each country study was also devel- nario Development (PSD) workshops was provided oped through joint efforts with EACC country team by Livia Bizikova (IISD), Philip Bailey, Samantha leaders from ENV; regional staff and consultants Boardley, Simon Mead, Carol Murray (all ESSA), including Aziz Bouzaher, Jean-Christophe Carret, and Dale Rothman (IISD). A separate report is Raffaello Cervigni, Edward Dwumfour, Peter Kris- available summarizing this work, along with a train- tensen, Benoit Laplante; and country office sector ing of trainers manual. liaisons Shakil Ahmed Ferdausi, Douglas Graham, Ruth Llanos, Khwaja Minnatullah, and Le Anh Tuan. The study has bene�tted greatly from peer review We could not have completed this work without the comments and other feedback on this synthesis report continuous logistical support provided by Hawanty and on versions of each of the country reports from Page (ENV), Grace Aguilar (ENV), Mustafa Pajaze- World Bank staff including Max Ashwill (LCSSO), tovic (SDV), and Carmen Martinel (SDV). Bhuvan Bhatnagar (SASDS), Edward Cameron (SDV), Anna O’Donnell (SASDS), Habiba Gitay Research partners in Bangladesh were the Ban- (WBI), Stephen Jaffee (EASER), Urvashi Narain gladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), (ENV), Nicolas Perrin (ECCSD), Fabio Pittaluga where the study team was led by Zul�qar Ali and (SASDS), and Carolyn Winter (AFR); and from comprised lead researcher Iqbal Alam Khan and external peer reviewers including Arun Agrawal, assistants. In Bolivia, Ruth Llanos from the World Jessica Ayers, Katrina Brown, Edward Carr, Sean Bank country office led a team including Miguel Doolan, Ravi Kanbur, Richard Klein, Koos Neefjes, Morales. In Ethiopia, the Ethiopian Economics and Maarten Van Aalst. Any remaining errors and Association (EEA) led the PSD component of the omissions are entirely those of the core team. iv ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Executive Summary ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT v The social component of the Economics of Adaptation benchmarks for success in adaptation planning. In to Climate Change (EACC) study (hereafter ‘study’) particular, this report aims to demonstrate that inte- aims to highlight how vulnerability to climate change grating a social perspective into national efforts to is socially differentiated, what elements are needed to design adaptation strategies will contribute to devel- strengthen the adaptive capacity of poor people and oping climate action that targets poor and disadvan- regions, and how governments can support adaptation taged groups at national and sub-national levels. that addresses the needs of the poorest and most vul- nerable, while maximizing co-bene�ts with develop- Key Messages ment goals. In addition, the study draws attention to ‘soft’ or institutional and policy measures in adaptation, Vulnerability to climate change is socially differen- which are well placed to complement ‘hard’ infrastruc- tiated. Exposure to climate risk poses different risks ture investments. The social component complements to different groups of people. The ability to weather the global and sector-speci�c analyses of the EACC a cyclone or a drought is shaped by a host of social study by bringing the voices of the poor and vulner- factors including degree of social inequality; access able to the analysis to help ensure that climate-resilient to resources; poverty status; lack of representation; adaptation investments best respond to their needs. and effectiveness of systems of social security, early warning and planning. For example, gender inequi- To achieve these objectives, this study employed ties may lead women to experience climate hazards a combination of innovative analytical methods differently than men; similarly, the poor are likely to including participatory scenario analysis to reveal suffer disproportionately compared to the rich; and local stakeholders’ assessments of robust adaptation children and the elderly or people with a limited skill pathways in the context of uncertainty. By bringing set may suffer more than others. Social identity may together local knowledge with expert information, also lead to restricted access to certain resources and the social component generated new evidence on how subsequent lower adaptive capacity. Social as well vulnerability is socially differentiated; identi�ed the as political-economic structures will influence the risks and bene�ts of adaptation options for a range impact of climate shocks and trends. People that con- of actors in an integrated and cross-sectoral manner; tend with multiple inequalities will be most vulner- and highlighted the importance of social account- able to climate change. ability and good governance for achieving pro-poor, climate resilient development. The study extends Across all countries, those consistently identi�ed as the use of participatory scenario analysis to include most vulnerable to climate risk were those already a focus on local development planning in national socially vulnerable (elderly, women, children, sick, contexts, while the �eldwork results present how cur- disabled); ethnic minorities; indigenous peoples; rent coping strategies and policy emphases may guide people dependent on natural resources for their liveli- development of future adaptation measures. hoods (e.g., pastoralists); and migrants. The poor were identi�ed as particularly vulnerable, but in some cases This body of research aims to inform our diagnosis of “richer� groups will also be greatly impacted in the climate change; our understanding of vulnerability; short term, though their ability to recover is greater. the political economy of climate policy and action; the composition of local and national actors and Local adaptation preferences are socially differen- coalitions; and the design, monitoring and review tiated and conditioned by a host of social factors: of process and policy instruments. In doing so, it is preferred adaptation options varied remarkably hoped that results may be used to inform the setting across study sites. Local preferences consistently of targets and thresholds and the identi�cation of supported the need for both autonomous and vi ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT planned adaptation; a mix of hard and soft measures; Most planned adaptation actions to date have and awareness of the importance of pursuing both focused on hard infrastructure development. For communal and individual adaptation measures was governments, decisions to invest in hard adaptation evident. In addition, the adaptation strategies per- measures may be “high-regrets� options in social and ceived to be most effective were those that addressed economic terms because these investments are often underlying drivers of vulnerability, rather those that irreversible. For this reason, decisions to invest in hard focused on climate change alone. ‘One size �ts all’ options merit careful review. “Thinking outside the adaptation planning does not work. Different com- box� on adaptation was not very common across most munities among different regions will have different �eld sites and may be attributed to the tendency for ideas about how to match their development objec- individuals to be constrained by their current context tives to the realities of climate change impacts. and inability to plan for future uncertainty. Experience with climate events to date and past Enabling livelihood diversi�cation is essential to coping measures hold valuable lessons for the manage climate risk; in some cases, profound trans- future; but future adaptation requires new knowledge formation of livelihood activities will be required. and improved access to information – otherwise the Enabling social, political and economic structures risk of adopting maladaptive actions that perpetuate will be necessary to support sector-speci�c invest- vulnerability in the long-term is high. Most actions ments aimed at strengthening the local adaptive taken by vulnerable groups today are only short-term capacity. In addition, improved access to information coping mechanisms; attention to long-term adapta- and decision-making processes for dealing with cli- tion is generally weak. mate impacts will be essential. TABLE 1 CHECKLIST FOR GOOD ADAPTATION PRACTICE RECOMMENDATION P Combine investments in hard and soft adaptation options to meet the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable P Consider and build on past strategies to cope with climate variability when planning future adaptation interventions Pursue adaptation interventions that realize co-bene�ts with sustainable development P Anchor decision-making processes in inclusive and participatory processes. Promote transparency, accountability, the capacity to monitor and evaluate results, and the integration and coherence of policies P across sectors and scales P Target geographic regions where sensitivity to climate hazards is high. Consider multi-sectoral invest- ments that build area resilience P Invest in enabling policies that enhance sector-speci�c interventions such as improved land policy, improved natural resource management and the transfer and adoption of new technology Design social policy interventions (including social protection, education and training) that take better account of climate risk P ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT vii Local adaptation preferences largely coincided with adaptation plans and climate change strategies at the national level (e.g., NAPAs). Broad support exists at sub-national levels for national priority areas such as agriculture and water resources management; land management; roads; and early warning systems. In addition, additional investments in governance; social protection; training and education; and land tenure are strongly favored at sub-national levels. Based on these �ndings, the recommendations of this synthesis report are summarized in Table 1, Check- list for Good Adaptation Practice. This Checklist may be used as a guide to inform the setting of tar- gets and the identi�cation of benchmarks for success in pro-poor adaptation planning. Notably, this table highlights issues that may not be immediately evi- dent from a strictly quantitative cost-bene�t analysis of adaptation options. For this reason, Table 1 should be viewed as an important complement to the recom- mendations of the overall EACC study. One ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 1 Introduction and Overview to the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Study The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change The EACC study comprises a global track to meet (EACC) study estimates that it will cost $75-100 bil- the �rst study objective and a case study track to lion each year for developing countries to adapt to a 2˚ meet the second objective (World Bank 2010a). The warmer world from 2010 to 2050 (see Box 1 for com- country track comprises seven countries: Bangladesh, parison with previous estimates). The study, funded Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Samoa and by the governments of the Netherlands, the UK, and Vietnam. Under the global track, adaptation costs for Switzerland, had two speci�c objectives. The �rst was all developing countries are estimated by major eco- to develop a global estimate of adaptation costs to nomic sectors using country-level data sets that have inform the international community’s efforts to tailor global coverage. Sectors covered are agriculture, for- support and provide new and additional resources to estry, �sheries, infrastructure, water resources, coastal help vulnerable developing countries meet adaptation zones, health, and eco-system services. Cost implica- costs. The second objective was to support decision tions of changes in the frequency of extreme weather makers in developing countries to better evaluate and events are also considered, including the implications assess the risks posed by climate change and to bet- for social protection programs. Under the country ter design strategies to adapt to climate change. This track, impacts of climate change and adaptation costs objective comprised the identi�cation of adaptation are established by sector, but only for the major eco- options that incorporate strategies dealing with high nomic sectors in each case study country. uncertainty, potentially high future damages, and competing needs for investments in social and eco- The country track differs from the global track in nomic development up to 2050. two notable ways. First, a macroeconomic modeling framework is used in the country track (in most case To achieve these objectives, a development baseline was studies) allowing for analysis of macroeconomic and developed for each sector using a common set of GDP cross-sectoral effects of the impacts and adaptation to and population forecasts for 2010-2050. From these climate change. Second, the social component in the dynamic baselines, sector-level performance indicators country track develops vulnerability assessments in were determined to project development to 2050. Two socio-geographic hotspots in order to understand the climate scenarios were chosen to capture the range socially differentiated nature of vulnerability. In addi- of possible model predictions. As precipitation is the tion, this component conducts participatory scenario major variant across models, two model scenarios that development workshops in case countries to char- presented the extremes of wet and dry climate projec- acterize various future adaptation pathways possible tions were used. for different livelihood groups, given their identi�ed 2 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT vulnerabilities and assets. These workshops serve as costs of losses in ecosystem service provisioning and an important vehicle through which the perspectives failure to take account of residual damages. of local populations may be used to help guide the planning and priority setting process carried out by Existing estimates are limited due to several factors technical and policy experts at a more macro level. including their wide and uncertain range; paucity of sector-wide estimates; lack of consideration for cli- Previous estimates of the global cost of adaptation mate-proo�ng current stocks; lack of an operational have ranged signi�cantly. Box 1 presents an overview de�nition of adaptation; disconnect from climate of these global cost estimates. Parry et al. (2009) have projections; failure explicitly to treat uncertainty; lack highlighted a number of common shortcomings in of a projected development baseline; and failure to these estimates, such as the tendency to ignore the take account of any existing ‘adaptation de�cit’. ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 3 BOX 1 PREVIOUS ESTIMATES OF THE GLOBAL COST OF ADAPTATION World Bank (2006): Annual adaptation costs $9-41 billion per year for a 2-3˚C increase in temperature. Using same methodology but different parameter values Stern (2006): $4-37 billion per year UNDP (2007): $5-67 billion per year by 2015 UNDP (2007): 47-109 billion / yr by 2015 includes social protection + disaster response Where adaptation costs is a function of: Baseline Investments x % Exposed to Climate Risk x % Increase in Costs to Climate-proof Assets Oxfam (2007): NGO adaptation projects at least $50 billion / yr UNFCCC (2007): First sector-based estimates $28-69 billion / yr by 2030 Source: World Bank Presentation at Bonn Climate Talks (2009) 4 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Two ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 5 Background to Social Component of EACC Study Climate change will affect most people around the investments generated under other components of world; however, it is the poor and most vulnerable the EACC study. who have historically contributed least to causing the problem that stand to lose the most from its To achieve these objectives, this social component impacts. The inherently inequitable nature of this employed a combination of innovative, participatory global challenge calls for special attention to be methods including participatory scenario analysis, to given to building the adaptive capacity of those least identify how vulnerability is socially differentiated able to cope with increasing climate variability and and to understand what a range of stakeholders con- climate change. sider robust adaptation pathways to be in the context of uncertainty. To date, such participatory scenario Yet despite facing a variety of climate threats, the exercises have not been used at this scale in develop- most vulnerable populations will encounter surpris- ing countries to reveal adaptation preferences focused ingly similar barriers to building resilience to climate on the needs of those most vulnerable groups in the change. Understanding vulnerability as sensitivity to short, medium and long-term, and to present how risk and adaptive capacity, in addition to exposure to current coping strategies and policy emphases may risk, has important implications for the way that cli- guide development of future adaptation measures. mate change analysis, processes, and policy responses are shaped; and associated social and political impli- Notably, the social component builds on one of the key cations are understood. messages of the EACC synthesis report; namely, that development is the best form of adaptation, though For the EACC study, the social component sought adaptation will require developing differently. Evi- to highlight how local populations’ vulnerability to dence generated in the �eld is useful to help illustrate climate change is socially differentiated, what types where it is best to focus on no-regrets approaches and of resources local populations will need to strengthen where new measures may be needed to improve local their adaptive capacity, and how governments can and area resilience. support adaptation that addresses the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable and maximizes co-ben- In addition, the EACC social synthesis report e�ts with sustainable development. In addition, the addresses the issue of “planned� i.e., public, adapta- social lens drew attention to ‘soft’ or institutional and tion versus “autonomous� adaptation undertaken pri- policy measures in adaptation that would best com- vately, and draws conclusions about factors that may plement the cost estimates of ‘hard’ infrastructure contribute to an enabling environment conducive to 6 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT pro-poor adaptation. This discussion on planned ver- Scope and Outline sus autonomous adaptation is signi�cant as private measures are not considered extensively in the EACC of the Report synthesis report. This report presents the methodology developed and This body of research aims to inform our diagnosis of results derived from research conducted for the social climate change; our understanding of vulnerability; component of the EACC country study track in the political economy of climate policy and action; Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique the composition of local and national actors and and Vietnam. The report intends to complement coalitions; and the design, monitoring and review the aggregated perspective of the global study and of process and policy instruments. It is hoped that provide information on lessons learned and insights results from the social component may be useful in gained from a bottom-up, local-level analysis of vul- informing the determination of adaptation targets nerability and preferred adaptation strategies. This and thresholds, and the identi�cation of benchmarks synthesis report presents key messages on what drives for success in the future. In particular, integrating vulnerability and how these factors multiply climate a social perspective into national efforts to design risk for poor households. Recommendations are adaptation strategies will contribute to developing made regarding the forms of adaptation that local climate action that responds to the needs and inter- groups consider most effective and the factors that ests of poor and disadvantaged groups and regions at must be considered to achieve climate-resilient devel- the sub-national level. opment. These recommendations will help guide ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 7 prioritization of actions, as well as the development countries are used to illustrate key factors that shape of a robust, integrated approach for increasing resil- sensitivity and adaptive capacity. ience to climate risks at the national and sub-national levels – particularly for the poorest and most vulner- The third section presents what adaptation means at able groups in society. the local level; discusses the key characteristics of a socially sustainable approach to achieving climate While this report focuses on adaptation, it recognizes resilience; and shows to what degree local adaptation that actions to mitigate climate change must be pur- preferences reflect priorities embodied in national level sued in parallel and supports the conclusion from the climate change strategy documents and development EACC synthesis report; namely, that while invest- processes. The �nal section provides recommendations ment in mitigation is essential, it may be reasonable for integrating these �ndings into the national plan- for developing countries to devote more effort to ning processes in order to support socially sustainable, adaptation over the next few decades. climate-resilient development outcomes. The report comprises four main sections. The �rst Annexes 1-6 provide a more detailed overview of pro- section presents the methodology used for data col- jected climate change impacts in each country case; lection and analysis in all six country case studies (see details of site selection for �eldwork; and the ratio- Annex 9 for a list of country reports and all other nale underlying this selection; and a brief summary outputs from the EACC Social component). The sec- of empirical �ndings in each case. Annexes 7 and 8 ond section focuses on the concept of vulnerability as describe the �eldwork methodology and approaches composed of exposure to risk, sensitivity to that risk used for participatory scenario development respec- and adaptive capacity. Examples from the case study tively (see also Kuriakose et al. 2009). 8 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Three ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 9 Study Methodology The methodology aimed to assess adaptation Analytical Underpinnings preferences of the most vulnerable in the short, medium and long-term in order to inform the The study approach included identification of development of policies and processes that build key socio-geographic regions vulnerable to cli- local resilience for poor, socially excluded groups mate change, and site selection for qualitative in particular; and quantitative fieldwork and consultations that would enable adequate coverage of diverse liveli- n A focus on building on existing adaptive responses. hood groups, climate risks, and production sys- The methodology aimed to identify effective tems. Care was also taken to include urban sites in local coping strategies in order to demonstrate country studies, though research focused primar- where existing adaptation responses with a high ily on natural resource-dependent rural areas. The bene�t-cost ratio could be scaled up and demon- study aimed to generate evidence drawn from local strate what social, economic and political factors populations using participatory forms of analysis. contribute to adoption of maladaptive practices in This approach complemented the top-down mod- order to identify how more sustainable practices eling and sector-specific analyses of the EACC could be fostered; study in the following ways: n A focus on soft as well as hard adaptation options. n A focus on the local level. Because most adaptation Even rough estimates of hard versus soft adapta- is ultimately undertaken at the local level, a bet- tion options are missing from efforts to under- ter understanding of locally-assessed costs and stand the costs of adaptation to climate change. bene�ts is necessary to inform national efforts to The methodology undertook an examination of improve local adaptive capacity. The methodology these adaptation options in speci�c socio-geo- aimed to generate information on the types of graphic hotspots particularly vulnerable to cli- preferred adaptation strategies at the local level; mate change, focusing particularly on identifying complementary and potential tradeoffs among n A focus on vulnerable and disadvantaged socio- sector-based interventions; economic groups. Poor, natural resource-depen- dent rural communities and households, as well n A focus on ground-truthing sector-based analy- as urban populations will bear a disproportionate ses at the macro-level. Rapid assessment tech- burden of the adverse impacts of climate change. niques were used to elicit information on 10 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT vulnerability to climate hazards as well as to n How do identi�ed adaptation priorities align take stock of corresponding coping strategies with existing development strategies and policy used by poor and vulnerable groups to confront emphases? climate change and variability. This bottom-up approach is valuable in setting priorities for To answer these questions, the following �ve-step planned adaptation investments at the national methodology was adopted: and sub-national levels; n Primary and secondary literature review supple- n A focus on triangulation between different data mented by stakeholder interviews, to identify sources. The social component provided for both existing knowledge about vulnerability in validation of data about vulnerability, climate the country, and current and planned efforts to risks and adaptation strategies adopted by the reduce that vulnerability; poor through the triangulation of assumptions and conclusions reached through the focus n Selection of socio-geographic hotspots where both group discussions, key informant interviews elements of exposure and sensitivity were present and survey sources. These methods combined based on primary and secondary literature review. with participatory scenario development work- Local experts were interviewed and consultation shops were an approach by which the research workshops were conducted in order to validate team – including local counterparts – could cor- selection of climate vulnerability “hotspots� (See roborate or reject model–derived data and help Annexes 1-6); to improve the understanding of the costs and bene�ts of particular adaptation pathways and n Fieldwork in vulnerability hotspots to validate sequences of options. results of the initial literature review and develop more detailed vulnerability assessments. The �eld- work comprised three elements: key informant Research Approach and interviews with representatives from local organi- zations and other leaders; focus group discussions Questions with men and women from different socio-eco- nomic strata; and household surveys with a strati- The social component set out to answer the following �ed sampling approach. This approach aimed research questions on vulnerability to climate change to identify livelihood and adaptation strategies and potential pro-poor adaptation responses: of households in different income tiers; identify sensitivity factors contributing to vulnerability n What factors make particular individuals, house- such as gender, migrant status and age; and assess holds, or sub-national regions more vulnerable to the presence of formal and informal institutions the negative impacts of climate change? operating in these areas (See Annex 7); n What has been people’s experience of climate n Participatory Scenario Development (PSD) work- events to date and what adaptation measures have shops at local, regional and national levels in order they taken (both autonomous and planned)? to identify local development visions, expected impacts of climate change on these visions, and n How do different groups, and local and national preferred adaptation options and combinations representatives judge various adaptation options of options over time. This analysis included iden- and pathways? tifying the types of adaptation measures that ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 11 would bene�t different vulnerable groups in each responses to climate and other shocks participation country; the trade-offs between these adaptation in formal organizations, local governance, adaptation strategies; and what types of policies and pre- practices, collective action and risk-sharing, and cur- conditions would maximize co-bene�ts with sus- rent access to public investments and services). tainable development (See Annex 8); and n Preparation of a �nal country case study report incor- Participatory Scenario porating results from all sectors, so that the results could be evaluated across EACC country cases. Development The use of participatory scenario development (PSD) Fieldwork as a tool to elicit stakeholder preferences on adapta- tion is a distinguishing feature of the EACC study. The primary purpose of the �eldwork was to validate PSD is traditionally used to “identify the effects of the results of �ndings derived from the literature different responses to emerging challenges, to deter- review. First, the question of differential vulnerabil- mine how different groups of stakeholders view the ity was explored: who were the most vulnerable, and range of possible policy and management options how did climate change impact these groups, relative available to them, and identify appropriate public to everyone else? Second, current coping strategies policies and investment support necessary to facilitate and adaptation practices were identi�ed. In particu- effective future actions� (Bizikova et al. 2009). lar, study teams sought to identify whether there was regional variation in the impacts and strategies. For the purpose of the EACC study, PSD workshops were conducted in case countries at the local, regional Fieldwork was undertaken at study sites, using quali- and national levels with a range of stakeholders, tative and quantitative tools (see Table 2). Sites were including members of vulnerable groups and those selected from among major socio-geographic zones representing them. PSD provided a framework and identi�ed, with a view to covering key hazard types, a context in which stakeholders identi�ed preferred mix of urban and rural sites, and to ensure alignment adaptation options and sequences of interventions, with Bank or other donor projects operating in the based on their experience and information provided country. Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) exercises on local and national climate and economic projec- (village history/ timelines; focus group discussions of tions. The PSD approach centered on the identi�- men, women and different age groups; wealth ranking; cation of largely planned adaptation measures that mapping of institutional and tenure issues; impact dia- aligned with envisaged development trajectories and grams of climate events and community risk mapping, led stakeholders to consider potential trade-offs, and matrix ranking of adaptation options) were under- possible adverse social impacts of adaptation actions. taken, as well as key informant interviews with local In addition, PSD helped to determine how different government, NGOS and traditional leaders. groups of stakeholders prioritized the types of sup- port and investment that would be needed to facili- Finally, household interviews were undertaken (10-20 tate future adaptation (Bizikova et al. 2009). per site from different income tiers, with questionnaire modules covering household composition, labor allo- PSD was a vehicle through which the concerns and cation, asset base, livelihood sources, ethnicity, migra- adaptation preferences of traditionally poor and mar- tion, patterns of income and expenditure, agricultural ginalized groups were represented and discussed. practices, landholdings and land tenure regimes, These results based on the effective participation of 12 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT TABLE 2 SCOPE OF FIELDWORK AND PARTICIPATORY SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOPS No. of No. of PSD Workshops Agro- No. of No. of Urban ecological House- No. of Focus Total “Hotspots� site in- zones holds in- Group Local/ attending Zonal Characteristics (sites) cluded covered terviewed Discussions Regional National Participants (for study sites) Bangladesh 8 Yes n.d 170 n.a. 5 2 234 HAZARD-BASED: Drought; salinity; cyclone; river flood; waterlogging; tidal flood; drainage congestion Bolivia 14 No 4 of 16 70 45 28 1 n.a. AGRO-ECOLOGICAL: Valleys Altiplano; Plains; Chaco Ethiopia 7 No 3 of 8 294 6 3 1 165 AGRO-ECOLOGICAL: Mid-highland belg zone; Lowland pas- toral; Mid-highland perennial and root crops Ghana 4 Yes 4 of 6 80 8 3 2 137 AGRO-ECOLOGICAL: Coastal Savannah; Forest zone; Transi- tion zone; Northern Savannah Mozambique 15 No 6 of 6 137 45 2 1 104 ECONO- GEOGRAPHIC: Coastal urban areas; Non-urban coastal; Limpopo River Valley (upstream of Xai-Xai); Other flood prone River Valleys; Drought-prone inland areas; Inland area of high agricultural productivity Vietnam 7 Yes 4 of 8 181 22 4 2 220 SOCIO- GEOGRAPHIC: Northern Mountains; Central Highlands; Central Coast; Mekong Delta ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 13 a diverse range of stakeholders serve as a valuable which adaptation to climate change goes hand- contribution to the growing evidence base on vulner- in-hand with other development priorities (Kuri- ability to climate change and adaptation. akose et al. 2009; Bizikova et al. 2009). Components of PSD include: Participants were able to identify the types of adap- tation support they considered to be most effective n Process-oriented and collaborative approaches that – including soft adaptation options such as land use involve stakeholders participating in exploring the planning, policy reform and greater access to infor- future in creative and policy-relevant ways; mation – for managing future climate risks. n Climate and development baseline projec- While recognizing the limitations of the PSD pro- tion information which is used for developing cess (as discussed in the following section), the study “visualizations�; team endorses the continued development and use of participatory scenario development as an analyti- n Structured debates around development priori- cal tool to elicit stakeholder preferences on adapta- ties and relevant adaptation responses and well tion to climate change. as trade-offs and synergies among adaptation options or policy reforms; and Table 2 provides details on the scale of the �eldwork and PSD workshops conducted in each country. n A focus on strengthening the inter-sectoral linkages between adaptation and development priorities that are not speci�c to climate change Study Contributions (Kuriakose et al. 2009; Bizikova et al. 2009). and Limitations The objective of these PSD workshops was to foster a structured discussion and identi�cation of adaptation The social component of the EACC study comple- pathways that: ments the global and sector-speci�c analyses of the EACC study by amplifying the voices of those most 1. Identi�ed the most important impacts of future vulnerable to climate change impacts. It helps to climate change and climate variability on local inform national-level planning on climate adaptation populations as understood by them, taking into with a view to prioritizing measures that best address account baseline and projection scenarios pre- the needs of those most vulnerable to the effects of sented by modelers; climate change. It is also speci�cally designed to help strengthen national capacity to undertake policy 2. Assessed the probable impacts of these identi�ed research on pro-poor adaptation and thereby help climate changes on particularly vulnerable people inform ongoing national policy and planning pro- and livelihoods and what the expected associated cesses (see Box 2 for illustrative examples). adaptation responses are likely to be; More speci�c contributions of the social component 3. Noted the preferred pathways for adaptation and to the overall EACC study are that it: policy response that are pro-poor and cost effective; n helped identify the wide range of soft adaptation 4. Identi�ed key areas of integration and trade-offs options that are available to complement hard across sectors and/or regions in the country, in adaptation investments; 14 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT n focused on the ability of local populations to mobi- beyond planned adaptation to consider auton- lize assets and resources (including forms of social, omous forms of adaptation undertaken by physical, �nancial, natural, and cultural capital) to households, civil society organizations, and adapt to climate change and build resilience; the private sector; n highlighted issues of scale and the need for com- n called attention to political economy issues and plementary measures to be undertaken at national their influence over alternative policy choices; and and sub-national levels; n applied Participatory Scenario Development n examined the role of a wide range of formal techniques to highlight the importance of struc- and informal institutions in contributing to tured, bottom-up assessment approaches, applied adaptation, thus taking the EACC analysis in a disaggregated manner within developing BOX 2 STRENGTHENING NATIONAL CAPACITY IN PRO-POOR ADAPTATION RESEARCH AND PLANNING A key objective of the social component of the EACC study was to strengthen national capacity in pro-poor climate change adaptation research and planning. This was done in three main ways: To implement the EACC social study methodology, national researchers were trained in participatory approaches or paired with experienced international researchers; in some cases, social science institutes were paired with natural science institutes. In Bolivia, prior to initiating the �eldwork, a capacity building workshop was held at the national level during which forty individuals from nine local NGOs were trained in using participatory approaches for conducting vulnerability assessments related to climate change at the community level. In Vietnam, the Center for Natural Resources for Environmental Studies (CRES) at Vietnam National University Hanoi was paired with the Dragon Institute of Can Tho University, a center of excellence on climate change for the Mekong Delta. This collaboration aimed to promote and facilitate the use of participatory approaches for adaptation research in an institute traditionally focused on the physical impacts of climate change. A Training of Facilitator’s approach guided planning, design and conduct of the the Participatory Scenario Devel- opment (PSD) workshops. Prior to conducting PSD workshops in the African case countries, local research teams gathered at a regional training event to learn about designing and conducting participatory scenario development workshops for adaptation planning. In addition, a Training Manual (see ESSA & IISD 2009) based on EACC experi- ence with PSD workshops was prepared to serve as a guide for future efforts to design and conduct participatory scenario development workshops focused on adaptation to climate change. Engagement with national planning and program processes helped to ensure that study �ndings will inform cur- rent and future adaptation planning. For example, in Vietnam, the EACC-social team engaged in policy dialogue with the NGO Climate Change Working Group as well as the State Committee for Ethnic Minority Affairs (CEMA); the latter group is preparing a Socio-economic Development Plan for 2011-2015 which will be informed by EACC study results. In addition, EACC study inputs on climate adaptation have contributed to the design of a multi-donor Natural Resource and Environmental Governance Program in Ghana. Findings from the EACC social component will also inform the World Bank’s Pilot Program on Climate Resilience (PPCR) in Bolivia and Bangladesh. In addition, application of the PSD methodology for ongoing climate change work is currently under consideration for the PPCR in Tajikistan. ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 15 countries to bring multi-stakeholder perspectives level due to natural resource scarcity and emphasis on to bear on adaptation planning. the need for gender equity, non-farm diversi�cation and improved governance in urban areas. In spite of these contributions,it is important to acknowl- edge certain limitations of the social component. While grounded in scienti�c evidence, the PSD process must still be recognized as a participatory method for joint analy- The social component was largely a qualitative inves- sis and reporting of stakeholder preferences and assessments. tigation, with limited efforts to collect quantitative Discussions on future adaptation needs, no matter how household data. The qualitative approach was helpful structured, are inevitably conditioned by limits of the in understanding process and social dynamics, as well past experience of both participants and facilitators as perceptions and value preferences of various stake- and access to information; as well as prevailing policy holder groups. However, detailed distributional analy- discourse of what seems possible and important in the sis of climate impacts (e.g., on poverty rates; expected current context. Difficulties in people’s ability to imagine migration) was beyond the scope of this study. and plan for a different future abound, and one must recognize the possibility of inherent path dependence The social component did not attempt to provide quantita- in identifying routes forward. The workshop design tive data on either the costs or the bene�ts of adaptation mea- allowed for careful cross-checking of preferences, sures identi�ed by local stakeholders. As a result, there were and interrogation of preferences with regard to pro- limitations in the extent to which the �ndings from the poor response, synergies among options and the like, social component were integrated with the economic however it is challenging for participants to imagine a analyses conducted under the overall EACC study. world in 20 or 30 years’ time, and to know what types of livelihood measures might best meet future needs. While efforts were made to select �eld sites most repre- This was particularly apparent when participants were sentative of key climate risks in each case country, the asked to sequence their adaptation preferences over the number of sites and households surveyed were limited. short, medium and long-term; participants tended to Urban sites are particularly under-represented in the focus on short or medium-term needs, with the long- EACC-Social study. term visions were generally characterized by options that today seemed infeasible. The PSD process has limitations of its own. In particular, cognitive biases amongst workshop participants inevi- While all workshops followed similar guidelines, workshop tably influenced discussions on development, climate protocol varied. This is because local teams: (i) incorpo- change and adaptation preferences, as can be expected rated their own ideas for improving focus on adaptation from this type of process. For example, a workshop and adaptation pathways; (ii) integrated different inter- structured around questions of climate change tended active and engaging tools to spur discussion amongst to elicit responses focused �rst and foremost on climate participants; and (iii) accommodated comments and change, whether or not these represent the key concerns feedback received during initial in-country workshops. of stakeholders. Nonetheless, several of the exercises in Necessarily, all workshops were highly customized the workshop (such as impact diagrams, and timeline in each country to reflect national and local realities of past adaptation measures and responses to extreme and were tailored to best suit the range of participants events) generated information on adaptation that was involved (villagers, or district-level representatives not accounted for in the largely quantitative analysis of for example). In addition, the size and capacity of the wider EACC study. More speci�cally, this includes the facilitating team varied between workshops and information regarding indirect effects of climate between countries which also influenced workshop change such as increases in conflict at the community design and conduct. 16 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Four ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 17 Conceptual Framework The EACC-Social study focused on understanding incorporate analytical understanding of a variety of livelihood systems; vulnerability to climate change as market and non-market resources that affect house- socially differentiated; and the policy and institutional hold well-being. From these studies emerges the need factors that enable climate resilience. to understand the way in which institutions, social systems, and economic assets combine to form and reform locally-speci�c livelihood systems. The current Assets and Livelihood study is informed by such an understanding. Systems Vulnerability to Climate Many studies in recent years have focused on the idea of ‘sustainable livelihoods’ as a useful framework in Change: A Socially which to contextualize people’s relationship with their Differentiated Phenomenon environment and economy (Scoones 1998; Leach et al. 1999; Pretty and Ward 2001). Livelihood simply de�ned refers to the way in which people make a living Vulnerability has often been understood in the climate and sustain themselves and their families, taking into change literature as exposure to climate change. This the consideration the many factors that contribute to limited de�nition has led development practitioners shape their choices and alternatives. The sustainable and policy experts to devise one-dimensional inter- livelihoods approach was the �rst one to focus on the ventions focused on protecting infrastructure, rather multiple types of capital that encompass development. than protecting the vulnerable populations living in These aspects include physical capital (infrastructure), these areas. Today, there is growing recognition that �nancial capital (monetary assets); natural capital vulnerability is composed of exposure to risk, sensitiv- (including land, forest resources, and water), human ity to that risk, and adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007). capital (skills, education, health); and social capital (relationships, affiliations, community networks, and Exposure deals with the character, magnitude and rate other ties upon which people draw to sustain their of climate change and variation to which a system is livelihoods) (Leach et al. 1999). In other words, exposed. Populations will be vulnerable when exposed rather than simply looking at production and income/ to extreme weather events; increased water insecu- expenditure data, livelihood studies have attempted to rity; sea-level rise; reduced agricultural productivity; 18 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT increased health risk; large-scale singularities and aggregate impacts that worsen over time (e.g., tem- perature rises). The sensitivity of a system is high if an external stimu- lus such as drought or cyclones is predicted to strongly impact that system. More speci�cally, the sensitivity of local populations is acute if they are highly dependent on the environment for livelihoods, food and energy (as in the case of pastoralists or �shing communities); if they are highly exposed to hazards due to their geographic context; if they are de�cient in assets and resources; and if prevailing governance structures are weak. The most vulnerable populations will confront multiple threats even in the absence of climate change. At the same time, climate change threatens to enhance existing inequali- ties and exacerbate already stressed systems. Adaptive capacity is de�ned by Adger et al. (2004) as “the ability or capacity of a system to modify or change its characteristics or behavior so as to cope better with existing or anticipated external stresses.� This capac- ity can be de�ned as the capacity to absorb stress (either through resistance or adaptation); to manage and maintain basic functions during such stress; and to bounce back after such stress. Improving levels of adaptive capacity can be particularly complicated inasmuch as it entails action across sectors and at local, national and international scales, among a range of actors and institutions. Having said this, development interventions at regional levels can go a long way to improving resilience and adaptive capacity. Poverty, inequality, dependence on natural resources, gover- nance and institutional effectiveness, and access to technology and infrastructure are all factors that affect adaptive capacity and influence the types of adaptive responses that households and communities can pur- sue successfully. Climate resilience is strengthened where adaptive capacity is improved, inequalities are addressed, and exposure to climate risk is minimized. Thus consideration of the broad range of factors that shape sensitivity and adaptive capacity, in addition to that of physical exposure itself, is crucial for building ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 19 resilience into socio-ecological systems and achieving example would be a factor such as “governance�. A sustainable development. further challenge is capturing the dynamic nature of vulnerability, as quantitative approaches are more Vulnerability to climate change is socially differentiated. likely to present a static snapshot of vulnerability at Climate change has the potential to affect families, one point in time (Eakin and Luers 2006). A review communities and countries around the world; how- by Adger et al. (2004) has identi�ed a number of local ever, different groups of people in different places will and supra-local processes that can contribute to over- be affected to different degrees. To date, the human all vulnerability (Box 3), but which are often difficult dimension of vulnerability has been rather neglected to capture in single quantitative indicators. in vulnerability and adaptation studies (Adger and Kelly 1999). Crucially, the suffering and damages Like measures of vulnerability, measures of adaptive that people experience from storms, droughts and capacity vary considerably. The climate change litera- other climate events are shaped by social, political ture is �lled with attempts to develop speci�c indices and economic factors on the ground. Indeed, vulner- of adaptive capacity that take into account all the fac- ability can be considered to be a socially constructed tors that may go into adaptation and enhancement phenomenon shaped by a set of institutional and eco- of resilience to climate hazards, but it has proven dif- nomic dynamics (Adger et al. 2004) where resource �cult to develop simple typologies, especially when availability and the entitlements of individuals to the data from on-the-ground �eld studies remains draw on these resources help shape the level of secu- lacking (Kates 2000; Yohe and Tol 2002; Smit and rity or vulnerability of a particular group and their Wandel 2006). For example, in the Vulnerability- ability to buffer against shocks (Leach et al. 1997). Resilience Indicator Model, adaptive capacity is mea- sured by human resources capacity (i.e., literacy rates), An extensive literature on social vulnerability, emerg- economic capacity (i.e., GDP per capita and measures ing particularly from the hazards lite rature in geog- of income inequality), and environmental capacity raphy and anthropology, has related how access to (population density, pollution emissions, percentage resources is distributed within and among commu- of managed land) (Moss et al. 2001; Brenkert and nities (Adger et al. 2004). Research in this area pri- Malone 2005). In another report on adaptive capacity marily focuses on ‘vulnerability mapping’ to identify (Brooks et al. 2005) which considered national indi- who (which individuals, groups of people, commu- cators measured against past vulnerability to climate- nities and regions) is more vulnerable to changes in related disasters, the capacity of countries to adapt to livelihoods as a result of speci�c physical or climate climactic events was most strongly associated with hazards. Many researchers have tried to develop good development in the �elds of education (literacy typologies of social vulnerability that are “hazard spe- rates), health (mortality rates), and governance and ci�c� – such as whether or not a household is situated political rights. Another report on adaptive capac- on a coastal area or in a river floodplain – and have ity in Southeast Asia used statistics of development also considered more “generic factors� of vulnerability, indicators, such as Human Development Index rank- such as wealth status and levels of inequality; access ings, education, poverty incidence, income inequality, to resources (e.g., �nancial, natural); health and labor; electricity coverage, irrigation, road density and com- and social exclusion. munication as indicators of adaptive capacity (Yusuf and Francisco 2009). A major challenge in vulnerability studies is that capturing factors that researchers believe will impact The social component of the EACC study provides vulnerability and adaptive capacity are often hard a more complete picture of the types of factors that to measure with discrete quantitative indicators; an contribute to vulnerability and adaptive capacity and 20 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT BOX 3 EXAMPLES OF PROCESSES THAT AFFECT VULNERABILITY LOCAL-LEVEL PROCESSES PROCESSES AT HIGHER SCALES n Increasing labor migration n Population growth n Declining labor availability n Increasing/decreasing provision of services by n Loss of customary rights and change to the state “modern� tenure systems n Increasing penetration of global markets/ n Reduction of mobility in terms of grazing Re-orientation of production away from local livestock circulation and reciprocity n Increasing need for cash n Relative declining value of rural products, both agricultural and nonagricultural n Increasing price of inputs n Changing legislation and tenure systems n Privatization of land and resources n Declining biodiversity and forests/ expansion of n Monetization of resources and services; agriculture increasing health and education costs n Declining indigenous knowledge n Loss of access to communal resources n Increasing HIV/AIDS prevalence n Increasing skills requirements for non- agricultural employment n Urbanization n De-agrarianization Source: Adger et al. 2004 underscores the importance of accounting for them zones (largely agro-ecological zones, with a social and when designing future adaptation policies and inter- hazard overlay) in order to select “hotspots� for �eld ventions. In this sense, the EACC social synthesis research. Country results bear out the importance of report provides an important piece of complementary considering production systems with a spatial and analysis to the largely quantitative analysis on which social lens, whether looking at pastoralists in low- the rest of the EACC study is centered. land Ethiopia, or ethnic minorities in the mountains of Vietnam. This is because production systems are organized along social lines, and hence possibilities Socio-Spatial Approaches for adaptation intervention must be considered in light of speci�c producer groups and regions, rela- to Adaptation and Building tions among groups, and governance mechanisms Resilience for grievance redress. Additionally, important politi- cal economy issues arise in examining state policy Socio-spatial approaches to assessing vulnerability towards speci�c sub-regions, whether looking at the to climate change and identifying possible response resource-rich Forest zone of Ghana or past resettle- measures look below the national level, to sub- ment of farmers from north to south in Ethiopia. national or even local levels of socio-economies. The EACC social component builds upon this perspective A social analytical approach to adaptation tries to link in its methodology of identifying socio-geographic the speci�c livelihood pro�les found in geographically ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 21 delimited areas to the resilience of households and strategies for adaptation that will be required needs communities to climatic change. While individually, a policy framework to help facilitate adaptation, people may or may not be able to adapt depending as well as favorable policies in related sectors that on their entitlements and access to resources (Adger potentially impact on both vulnerabilities and space et al. 2005), they are also constrained by the actions for adaptation in the future, such as through refer- of others, and by gender-, age- and social status-spe- ence to land tenure policy, existing social protection ci�c norms on appropriate behavior and livelihood measures, national to local governance structures strategies. Examples of culturally-shaped adaptation and the roles of informal and civil society in pos- responses include use of informal non-monetary sible adaptation responses (Mani 2008; Dovers and arrangements and social networks to cope with cli- Hezri 2010). Assessments of the policy environment mate hazards that are extended to close kin and other related to adaptation usually entail an institutional relatives; community organization and communal analysis of key actors involved in climate adaptation, responsibility; food-sharing expectations and net- as well as reviews of policy implementation processes works; and local and long-distance support networks, and outcomes. Both direct climate policies, but also such as migrant ties (Agrawal 2008). reform of the more general institutional setting in which adaptation will take place, are required. In addition, civil society actors and the private sector Policy and Institutional are key components of understanding institutional settings, e.g., in order to assess how effective local Framework for Climate and national policy has been in creating an enabling Resilience environment for bottom-up adaptation, including autonomous adaptation. Such policy assessments Because adaptation to climate change likely requires usually address existing institutional capacities, changes in investments, production, and decision- ongoing functions related to climate vulnerability making over the long-term, assessments of planning and adaptation, future plans in these areas, capacity and policymaking at all levels are routinely part of any needs going forward, visions for overall adaptation climate vulnerability study, and thus policy was also pathways and economic costs of these choices (Lim assessed by the EACC-Social study. The diversity of et al. 2005; Klein et al. 2005). 22 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Five ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 23 Evidence from the Field: Understanding Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure to Climate Change percent of the residents, respectively. Moreover, many of these poorest belong to ethnic minority groups, in Case Study Countries largely depend on natural resources for their liveli- hoods, live in rural areas away from market centers, All of the EACC case countries for the social com- and have low levels of education. These intersecting ponent are subject to one or more of the following inequalities exacerbated the vulnerability of commune risks from climate change: drought, flood, storms, residents when Typhoon Ketsana struck in 2009, and sea level rise and threats to agricultural productivity poverty and hunger rates rose. (see Table 3 for more details). Annexes 1-6 provide greater detail on the projected climate impacts for Remarkably, while levels of exposure and sensitivity each case country. of a local population may differ by region, the most vulnerable groups typically face the same types of challenges in building resilience to climate risks. In Factors Driving Sensitivity addition, just as vulnerability to climate change is to Climate Change As discussed, the world’s poor are disproportionately TABLE 3 vulnerable due to unequal access to resources; poverty; EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE THREATS IN CASE COUNTRIES lack of representation in decision making processes; Sea-level Drought Flood Storm Rise Agriculture and poor access to social security, information and planning structures. Populations that contend with Bangladesh P P P P more than one of these factors will be more sensitive to Bolivia P P P the additional stress posed by climate change (World Bank 2008; Ribot 2010; Mearns and Norton 2010). Ethiopia P P P Ghana P P P Where inequalities intersect, vulnerability will be worse. For example, in Vietnam, in the communes of Dien Mozambique P P P P P P P P P P Binh and Dak Tram in the Central Highlands within Vietnam Kon Tum province, the poor account for 62 and 40 24 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT BOX 4 and on marginal lands and where natural resources are already scarce and access to markets is difficult. Com- PSD WORKSHOP DISCUSSION ON GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION AS A munities and households located in rural areas may be SENSITIVITY FACTOR more vulnerable if road networks are underdeveloped and access to markets, schools and public services is In the southern coastal city of Xai-Xai, limited. At the same time, urban populations may face Mozambique, participants identi�ed key issues different risks that heighten their sensitivity to cli- and criteria that would be useful for characterizing vulnerable populations and places in the southern mate hazards. The urban poor tend to reside in infor- region of the country. Areas identi�ed as vulnerable mal settlements, on steep slopes, along river banks and typically mirrored areas where climate-sensitive transport corridors, and on flood plains. Consequently, activities were taking place and occurrence of their lives, assets, health and future prosperity may be climate hazards was high. Participants also were further compromised with the onset of floods, land- asked to identify which livelihood activities were slides, heat waves and droughts. most sensitive to climate events. Livelihoods identi- �ed were again activities that were pursued in areas highly exposed to climate hazards. For example, In Bangladesh, the riverine sand and silt landmasses agriculture-based livelihoods were identi�ed to known as char in Bengali are home to approximately take place in areas prone to drought, where people �ve percent of the Bangladeshi population (Chow- nevertheless farm. In the case of �shing, inland dhury et al. 1993). Char are highly exposed to flash �shing sites where resources are under threat floods as well as river erosion and land loss, which from over-�shing were identi�ed. Coastal �shing also was perceived by workshop participants as a places the lives of char dwellers at high risk. Many hazardous activity, especially as artisanal �shers can scarcely produce basic staples or buy enough food increasingly venture further from shore in search of to eat. In the river flood prone hotspot study site, better stocks. land must be cultivated over a two to three year span otherwise crops will not grow. Yet villagers expressed unwillingness to invest resources for long-term activi- ties because river erosion can undo such investments. socially differentiated, so are preferred adaptation As agricultural land becomes increasingly eroded by measures. Consequently similar adaptation prefer- rivers, livelihood options decrease and residents are ences may be expected to emerge from groups facing forced to �nd new housing on higher land or on other similar types of vulnerability. The following evidence char on a regular basis. Frequent floods also block draws on �eldwork and participatory scenario devel- tubewells and latrines, forcing people to use river or opment workshops conducted in Bangladesh, Bolivia, flood water for drinking, cooking, washing, bathing Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique and Vietnam. as well as defecation. Consequently, malnutrition and health problems are more common among char Geographic Location dwellers than elsewhere in the country. Geographic location can shape both exposure and In Vietnam, “although many �sher families are not sensitivity of countries, communities and house- extremely poor by Vietnamese standards, they are holds to climate change. Populations living on small highly vulnerable due, �rstly to their dependency on island states, along coastlines and riverbeds, in flood declining marine resources; and, secondly, to their plains and on pasturelands will be exposed to climate- relative isolation and exposure compared to inland or related hazards including floods, cyclones, sea level urban communities� (DANIDA 2005). This isolation rise and droughts. In addition, local economic and of �shing communities has rendered them quite sen- social conditions can force people to live in risky areas sitive; for example, access to schools is limited as is ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 25 access to health and other social safety net services. In drought that had lasted for 8 months and had limited addition, �sher families must often absorb additional the irrigation of rice crops to 20 percent of the usual costs due to their geographic location such as trans- total; local farmers expected overall drops of at least portation fees for sending their children to school by half in terms of production. boat or boarding fees (NCAP 2006; Asian Disaster Reduction Center 2003; Trap 2006; Phong Tran et al. High dependence on rainfall patterns also character- 2008; Phong Tran and Shaw 2007; East Meets West izes farmers’ livelihoods in Ethiopia, with the conse- Foundation 2009). quences of this becoming increasingly evident. Many crops and livestock have already perished due to water Climate-Sensitive Resource scarcity and high temperatures. Temperature extremes Dependency are also affecting agricultural labor practices: observa- tion suggests that farmers and their plowing oxen retire People dependent on natural resources for liveli- to shade earlier than usual. One elderly farmer and hoods are most vulnerable to climate risk. Many mosque leader in Choresa kebelle (village) described families and communities are directly dependent on the following experience with temperature rise: ecosystems for their livelihoods either for primary or supplementary sources of food, feed, medicine and ‘’Before, like 10 years ago, the farmer plowing his shelter. Households that depend on a narrow set of �eld and his plough oxen as well as those livestock climate-sensitive activities such as agriculture or �sh- feeding on the pasture, used to start seeking shade ing will be at greater risk from climate change. At the at around noon. These days they do it around ten same time, people dependent on ecosystem services for in the morning. ‘’ employment and income (e.g., dependence on coral reefs for employment in the tourism sector) will also be In Bolivia, household interviews revealed that liveli- vulnerable. Across all country cases, people dependent hood strategies based on rain-fed potato cultivation on natural resources for their livelihoods and those were most vulnerable to drought. Compared to other with little scope for livelihood diversi�cation were crops, the potato requires more humidity and yields most vulnerable to climate variability and change. are highly sensitive to water scarcity. Moreover, the loss of a potato crop is costly, not only because the The Cu Lao Cham islands off of Vietnam’s Central price of the potato is relatively high but also because Coast do not offer alternative livelihood opportuni- the inputs – in particular potato seed – is superior ties in agriculture, and employment prospects in trade to other crops. Loss of a crop can perpetuate a cycle and commerce sector are scarce. Fisher families are of poverty and suffering. A small-scale potato farmer increasingly exposed to risk from increasingly fre- from the Valleys region of Bolivia detailed his hard- quent and intense storm events. In Kon Tum prov- ship associated with drought as follows: ince in the Central Highlands, non-farm livelihood opportunities are equally scarce. Most agriculture “Up to now I have still not recovered my potato is rain-fed and subsistence-based and thus highly crop; three years have passed and I still do not vulnerable to erratic weather patterns. In the wake have the same amount of seed that I had [before of Typhoon Ketsana in September 2009, many resi- the drought]. Little by little I am recovering, work- dents’ �elds were covered with sand blown in by the ing together with others that do have seeds.� storm, and food production decreased consequently by about 50 percent compared to the previous year. Income diversi�cation away from agriculture appears During �eldwork, Ha Giang province in the North- to be essential. Households most resilient to climate ern Mountains region was experiencing an extended shocks are those that have managed to diversify their 26 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT livelihood activities towards the informal trade sector or physical, �nancial and human capital asset levels lead in some cases, tourism. But in all countries, livelihood to extreme vulnerability of households. Common fac- diversi�cation proved difficult due to existing inequali- tors here include high dependency ratios in the house- ties and lack of opportunities. During focus group dis- hold, reliance on a single livelihood source, and low cussions with widows in the rural land capital Chokwé education levels. Cluster analysis of 294 households of the southern Gaza province in Mozambique, they in Ethiopia revealed that poor farmers – in particular described that recipients of micro-�nance invested young agro-pastoralists – were most vulnerable when their money to buy food rather than invest in business. compared to households with larger landholdings. This underlines the substantial “soft� inputs needed to In Bolivia, the poorest country in Latin America in help support livelihoods diversi�cation, including not GDP terms, the poverty levels of 70 households in the only training and education in a new skill set, but also fourteen most vulnerable municipalities were classi- seed capital. Furthermore, integrating rural areas into �ed according to asset indicators such as land tenure, markets will be an important activity to spur diversi- livestock holdings, family prestige, education, employ- �cation away from natural resource-based activities. ment, and type of housing. These households were then asked to consider past coping strategies in the event of Poverty a flood, drought, hailstorm and/or frost (see Figure 1). Poverty and lack of resources heightens sensitivity to Fifty percent of the families surveyed claimed that in climate change. Climate change will impact everyone, such circumstances they maintained their same life however, the poor will be hit �rst and hit hardest. Pov- patterns but tended to reduce consumption and draw erty status is a crucial determinant of access to entitle- down their reserves. Among these families were (i) ments and resources and directly shapes sensitivity those not signi�cantly affected by the climate event to risks. The ability of poor populations to draw on a and (ii) those that were unable to react to the event. range of assets to cope with climate-related stressors The former were generally the most well off families is limited; the resources at their disposal are often less possessing plenty of good irrigated land and a level resilient; and their ability to recover from both slow of agricultural production which would help them to and rapid-onset events is consequently weak. Low survive. They were also invariably families who had access, apart from farming, to other activities not totally dependent on climate change, such as outside jobs, trade, and processing value-added items for sale. The latter category were generally the poorest in the community, comprising elderly people, single women and subsistence farmers with scarce resources who often either were unable to work due to lack of opportunities or due to physical inability. In addition, these families were generally unable to migrate to seek new economic opportunities due to lack of resources. These families were more likely to endure hardship and rely on neighbors and other family members for assistance. The following statement illustrates how extreme events affect the family of a 68-year-old sub- sistence farmer from the Plains region: ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 27 We live off rice, maize and cassava production (3 70 percent and 75 percent of respondents did noth- hectares), and the vegetables grown by my wife. ing to manage the effects of droughts, floods and We could do nothing when the drought came cyclones, respectively. When asked what they would and simply waited for the next year in order to do if the climate hazards in their regions became start again. Luckily we survived on vegetables, more severe the majority of responses (70 out of 120) which we were able to irrigate with the little water indicated that they would do nothing differently. A available to us. -San Isidro Community, Yapacaní lack of resources to cope with these events seems to Municipality be a main factor contributing to this sense of resig- nation and disempowerment. See Figure 2 below for The other 50% of respondents claimed that they more details. had taken some form of action in the face of adverse climatic events. The responses were varied: some In Bangladesh, some 88 percent of households sur- adopted new economic activities as part of their live- veyed disposed of assets to cope with severe drought lihood strategies, some migrated to other areas, while conditions during monsoon season, by selling their others devoted themselves to improving their tradi- livestock or land or by leasing out their land. Many tional farming methods. households sold other assets such as poultry and housing during drought and a few households leased Similarly, in Mozambique about twenty-�ve percent their livestock. Disposal of household and personal of surveyed households did not identify any ex ante assets was only done as a measure of last resort - coping strategy for managing drought and forty-�ve when domestic food stocks were exhausted and the percent of households did nothing in preparation for need to raise cash through the sale of assets became floods or cyclones. In addition, during or after these necessary. Poverty status and lack of assets forced climate events, the majority of respondents reported vulnerable households to pursue short-term mea- to have not taken action ex post – about 55 percent, sures at odds with long-term sustainability such as 28 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT withdrawing children from school. In the end, a cli- Notably, in Vietnam, results from research carried mate event pushed these households even deeper into out by CRES in the Red River Delta revealed that poverty. This example shows how poverty and lack of wealthier households were also highly sensitive to resources can lead to maladaptation and perpetuate a climate risk and often took longer to recover from cycle of vulnerability. floods than middle-income families. This somewhat FIGURE 2 Coping Mechanisms Before, During, and Immediately After Climate Hazards in Mozambique Preparation for hazard Action during and immediately after hazard 24% 20% 32% 3% DROU GHT 52% 14% 13% 6% 12% 25% 19% 23% 45% F LOOD 13% 9% 68% 16% 7% 12% 2% 13% 4% 13% 45% 6% C YC LONE 14% 76% 17% Other Improve housing Manage surplus carefully Farm in highlands/lowlands Manage forest resources carefully Short season crops Consume wild fruit Nothing ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 29 surprising �nding may be explained by the fact that BOX 5 because wealthier households were more likely to GENDER IMPACTS OF DROUGHT invest in riskier economic schemes, they consequently IN ETHIOPIA faced higher losses in absolute terms from climate- related damage. Similarly, in Ethiopia it was also During a focus group discussion in Birko-Debele observed that certain groups that may have appeared (midland zone), a male farmer expressed that women suffer the most as a result of food shortage “richer� were in fact quite vulnerable. Speci�cally, in the household: pastoralists with large herds of cattle often seemed relatively well off; however, in some cases, low lev- ‘‘When I realize that there is not enough food in the els of education and limited options for livelihood house, I go out to the nearby town or to my friends. diversi�cation rendered them extremely vulnerable to The woman cannot go out because the children will climate risks. be waiting on her to get some food. In such cases, it is common that she cooks the little she has in the house, gives it to her children, puts some aside for the Gender husband and goes hungry herself. As a result the women get sick easily.’’ Where gender-based inequalities in social, eco- nomic and political institutions intersect, the vul- In this instance, women again enjoy less mobility nerability of particular groups to climate change is than their husbands. Moreover, their propensity to fall ill rises as reducing their own food consumption heightened. Women are often the victims of gender- is a common coping strategy. based inequality in rights, resources and voice as well as in household responsibilities. They often have lim- ited access to and control over natural resources, infor- mation, and money. Moreover, due to cultural norms, they may be less mobile than men and may lack vital the allocation and use of all family resources, includ- survival skills to weather storm events. Consequently, ing land. Male siblings are bestowed priority access to women are likely to suffer greater damages from cli- land over their sisters. In some cases, because women mate risks and have a lower capacity to adapt. At the are perceived to lack the skills and abilities to cultivate same time, empowered women have a proven track of larger land portions, they are bestowed marginal land record of improving adaptation and mitigation out- with low production capacity. comes and of being powerful agents of change. In addition to gender-based cultural norms and In Ghana, focus group discussions highlighted the inheritance structures, household responsibilities inequitable inheritance rules and land tenure relations often also render women more vulnerable to the often found in Ghana’s traditional patriarchal sys- impacts of climate change. Indeed, responsibility for tem. This system limits women’s access to productive household tasks such as water, food and fuel provision resources and, in some instances, to social justice. This generally fall to the females in the home. In the saline is signi�cant as land generally is the basis for the most and drought-prone areas of Bangladesh, where fresh productive livelihood activities. In the Guinea Savan- water is in short supply, women are forced to walk nah, for example, taboo on female ownership of land has long distances to collect water, risking their health prevented women from being recognized as farmers in and safety in the process. Their vulnerability is further their own right. Rather, they are considered assistants compounded as the amount of time available to these in the �elds. In the Transition zone, the traditional women for other productive tasks is signi�cantly and kinship structure in the community requires that reduced. Box 5 provides an illustration of some of the at the family level, family heads (usually men) control gendered outcomes of drought in Ethiopia. 30 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT BOX 6 changes in climate are becoming increasingly rec- ognized as an additional ‘push’ factor for migration. LAND ABANDONMENT IN THE COMMUNITY OF OVEJER�A IN BOLIVIA Poor vulnerable populations, whose livelihoods are based on climate-sensitive activities, are increasingly What effect has climate change had here? The resorting to temporary migration to cope with shift- community of Ovejería in the valleys region of ing weather patterns. Often migration is viewed as an Bolivia, has been practically abandoned, everyone option of last resort. In many cases, undocumented has left, only a few elderly residents stayed behind. The reason is that in recent years, wheat and barley migrants and those without permanent status do not yields fell so drastically that families could no longer have rights to public safety net services, and often are produce enough for their sustenance. The climate is exploited for low wages in employment or let go if ill very dry in this community. or injured, with little recourse due to their undocu- mented status. At the same time, migration can Where did they go? The majority of young people have positive impacts, particularly the ability to send went to the city, others to work as laborers in the region of Río Chico where agriculture is irrigated. income remittances to family members left behind. Rural-rural migrants are often at an unfair disadvan- How do those who were left behind live? In the com- tage when participating in local land tenure systems, munity of Ovejería there are now only a few goats, particularly where there is not an active land market. tended to by the elderly. Many years ago, when Insecure tenure affects agricultural production deci- there was more pastureland, this community reared sions directly, as in the case from northern Ghana sheep; about 20 years ago sheep breeding was replaced by goat breeding. below, leading to increased livelihood vulnerability. A male migrant farmer from the northern region of Ghana captured the problem of being landless in the During focus group discussions in the �shing com- following statement: munity of Bai Huong in Quang Nam province on the central coast of Vietnam, participants initially “Though I wish to, I could not plant crops which dismissed the possibility of women being dispropor- have long gestation periods particularly of high tionately affected by climate risks than men, noting commercial value like cocoa and cashew. This is that men were most vulnerable to storms because they because land is generally not sold here. Since I were the �shermen. Yet as discussions progressed, it do not have permanent use of the land leased to was revealed that of the community’s 56 small �sh- me, I am limited to cultivating only crops with ing boats, women participated in �shing activities on short gestation periods and low commercial value 40 boats and were consequently also directly affected. compared to cocoa and cashew. I believe I would Moreover, domestic responsibilities including cooking have been better off if I am granted permanent use and cleaning added to their workload. of the land.� Migrant Status Similarly, during a focus group discussion in the municipality of San Pedro in the valleys region of Migrants may become more vulnerable as climate Bolivia, a subsistence farmer observed the following: variability and change reduces opportunities to engage in sustainable productive activities. At the “We cultivate banana, rice, corn and yucca, same time, migration may be a valuable adaptation mostly. During the flood last year, the �rst thing strategy for other groups. While economic and social we did was seek refuge. We had to leave behind forces are usually the primary drivers of migration, our animals and seek another type of work in the ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 31 neighboring city, Riberalta. The entire family went. BOX 7 I found work in construction for about three to four EXPERIENCES WITH TEMPORARY months. This never used to happen before.� MIGRATION IN ETHIOPIA Families whose livelihood strategies already entailed At least a quarter of the participants in each of the seasonal labor migration either from rural to rural mid- and highland focus group discussions indi- cated that at least one of the household member areas or rural to urban areas may become increas- migrated to other towns during the last year. Many ingly reliant on migration as an adaptation measure. expressed that quite a number of youngsters in Support for migration requires political, social and the area travel about 400-500 km for salt mining economic capital, which both migrants and receiving work but also to the nearby towns of Kombolcha, areas often lack (see Box 6). Dessie and Addis. Some women travel to countries like Dubai and Saudi Arabia. Many migrants send remittances back home. In a focus group discussion In Ethiopia, families that received remittances per- in the village of Keteteya, the downside of the situa- ceived migration as a valuable coping strategy. In tion is expressed as follows: fact, survey evidence there suggests that migration there appeared to be of the “pull� factor, undertaken ‘’Due to food shortage in the households, some girls are by those households cultivating more land who have forced to drop out of school and travel to the nearby excess resources to be able to undertake migration. towns to look for work. Some of the girls ended up in prostitution and came back home with HIV/AIDS.’’ Yet at the same time, focus group discussions revealed the inherent risks associated with migration for par- ticularly vulnerable groups of people. Box 7 describes these experiences in more detail. a range of speci�c sensitivities that other rural or poor By contrast, in Hoi An town and the nearby Cu Lao groups may not. They often depend on their sur- Cham islands in the central coastal region of Viet- rounding ecosystems not only for subsistence but also nam, migration is generally a preferred coping strat- for cultural survival. Moreover, ethnic minorities are egy for most households. Remittances make up an often excluded from the discussion and debate sur- important source of household income for these local rounding actions to mitigate, adapt to and prevent populations. The wealthiest households in Hoi An the impacts of climate change. Similarly, despite their are those with relatives or children abroad. For these close connection to natural cycles and wealth of eco- families, ancestral ties to China, Japan and Europe logical knowledge, indigenous peoples are not always have presented important opportunities for children recognized as full partners in the decision-making to migrate abroad, �nd work in tourism agencies, or process for building resilience at the sub-national, open restaurant and hotel chains. Residents of Cu national and global levels. Lau Cham islands count remittances as an important source of income and savings. In Vietnam, there are 54 official ethnic groups. The Tay are the largest minority group with nearly 1.5 Ethnic Minority Status and Indigeneity million members, while the smallest group, the O Du, has only 300 members. Compared to the Viet- Minority ethnic groups and indigenous peoples namese Kinh majority, these minorities are dispro- may be disproportionately sensitive to climate portionately reliant on staple goods and on a limited change impacts. While ethnic minorities and indig- number of traditional agricultural practices. They enous peoples are more likely to be farmers, live in invest less in agricultural development and conse- rural areas, and be poor, these minorities also confront quently produce less overall (World Bank 2009b). 32 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT These minorities do not typically enjoy equal access limited opportunities for obtaining and education, to credit and �nancial services despite the fact that decreasing their chances of leading productive lives in they may be in greater need of credit than their Kinh the face of increasing climate variability and change. counterparts. In addition, ethnic minorities are more likely to be illiterate, drop out of school, and lack the Surveys in the central coastal Vietnamese province Vietnamese language skills necessary to capitalize on of Thua Thien Hue, for example, showed that those outside resources (World Bank 2009b). Confronting with a high school education were much more likely these multiple threats reduces the adaptive capacity to think flood damage was a combination of sensitiv- of ethnic minorities in Vietnam. ity factors and natural factors while those with less schooling were more likely to ascribe flood damage Similarly, Bolivia has the largest indigenous popula- to “fate� or an “act of God� over which they had little tion in Latin America, with 36 ethnic groups resid- control (Phong Tran et al. 2008). Higher levels of ing primarily in poor, rural zones. Since pre-colonial education can also increase the ability to recover after times, most of the indigenous population has worked climate events through better access to information in agriculture and livestock farming although some and sources of support. livelihoods are based on �shing and hunting. Now rapid population growth and increasing climate vari- With regard to climate change adaptation strategies, ability are jeopardizing their livelihoods. In addition, vulnerable households in Kon Tum in the Central many youth have difficulties surviving on their ances- Highlands did not view migration as a viable strategy tral territories, mainly due to the weakened carrying simply because they lacked the skills to engage in new capacity of these lands. Focus group discussions with livelihood activities in a new location. This knowledge indigenous farmers revealed that indigenous com- and capacity de�cit prevented them from diversify- munities believe successful adaptation would imply ing away from agriculture. Not surprisingly, villagers profound transformations to current livelihood sys- shared a desire to undergo training in animal hus- tems but that these may pose signi�cant challenges bandry along with provision of microcredit services, to cultural identity. These changes may mean shifting in order to engage in livestock breeding and buffer from rain-fed to irrigated cropping and open-range against damages caused by climate-related events. to semi-enclosed livestock production. These trans- In contrast, households in the Red River Delta and formations highlight the need for accompanying Mekong Delta did pursue migration as they pos- adjustments in market practices, uses of technology sessed the skills to capitalize on short-term working and organizational development. opportunities outside these regions. Education Focus group discussions with subsistence farmers and community leaders in Mozambique revealed a great Across all case study countries, participants in PSD deal of confusion about the causes of natural disasters, workshops and �eldwork identi�ed capacity-build- and whether these would increase or decrease in the ing, training and improved information exchange as future. Many farmers suggested that hazards occur vital to improve their adaptive capacity. Skills and because of failure to follow local customs or carry out knowledge enable people to pursue different liveli- traditional ceremonies, or because of witchcraft. hood strategies and achieve their livelihood objectives. Education will also affect a person’s ability to antici- Conflict Over Resources pate climate events, make proactive adaptation deci- sions and reduce losses related to disasters. Women, Conflict related to increasing resource scarcity due ethnic minorities and the poor in particular often have to climate change will disproportionately affect ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 33 vulnerable groups. The interaction between natural, the government (EJF 2004). Consequently, conflicts social and political systems will determine the adap- between agriculturalists and shrimp farmers have tive capacity of particular groups of people. Conflicts increased, particularly in the Mekong Delta, as these can be either horizontal (e.g., between roughly-equal shrimp ponds have moved into new areas. Moreover, parties in the same locale) or vertical in nature, the exposure to climate events has increased as man- latter for example found when external investors or groves are cut down to make room for shrimp ponds the state purchase or appropriate land locally without and coastal areas are left more vulnerable (Adger et consultation. Capacity to respond to and manage al. 2005). climate risks will be weaker in poorly governed areas and steps must be taken to ensure local participation in consultations, reduce power and resource inequities Aspects of Adaptive and foster accountable and transparent public institu- tions. Indeed, adaptation to climate change will need Capacity to recognize the linkages between adaptation, devel- opment and conflict (Smith and Vivekananda 2009). Adaptive capacity, as noted earlier, refers to the abil- ity of institutions or people to modify or change Focus group discussions in the Ethiopian pastoralist characteristics or behavior so as to cope better with village of Haro Kersa, indicated that conflicts with existing or anticipated external stresses from climate. neighboring villages had increased. These conflicts There are a number of indicators of adaptive capacity were especially related to water shortages (see Box 8) highlighted in the literature: here we focus on institu- and a lack of high-quality grazing lands. tional capacity; natural resource management; collec- tive action and social capital; and public and private Similarly, in saline-prone Satkhira district in Bangla- safety nets. desh, there is conflict between rich shrimp farmers and poor crop cultivators, with the latter reported to be deliberately causing breaches in embankments to BOX 8 further salinize agricultural lands so that the crop cul- tivators are forced to sell or lease their damaged land. RESOURCE SCARCITY INDUCES CONFLICT AMONG WOMEN IN ETHIOPIA In Bolivia, competition for water is high, and in the In Ethiopia, the effect of water and food short- cities of Cochabamba, Sucre or Tarija, social conflicts age in the household as a result of changes in the are frequent between the urban utility and user com- rainfall patterns appears to be gendered. In a focus munities. The incidence of conflict is likely to increase group discussion in Choresa (midland valley zone), as this resource becomes scarcer. women emotionally expressed the effect of water shortage as follows: In Vietnam, as shrimp has become more valuable ‘’Everyday we �ght over the ever weakening spring on the international market, it has replaced rice as water in the area especially during the dry season. the major export from the Mekong Delta. In addi- This coupled with the long queue, it takes us more tion, government policy has strongly encouraged than three hours to get about 20 liters of water from the conversion of agricultural land to shrimp ponds; a nearby spring for domestic chores which is about land tenure certi�cates for privatizing once common double the time it used to take us 10 years ago. This causes reduced sanitation in the household especially mangrove areas are now widespread; and preferential for the children. ’’ taxation, as well as targeted credit and investment to encourage conversion to shrimp are supported by 34 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Governance and Institutional Capacity the poorest and most vulnerable; and enhance orga- nizational capacity in order to carry out adaptation. Governance de�ciencies can severely limit the abil- When national institutions are decentralized, they ity of individuals and households to build adaptive may facilitate coordination between national and capacity. For individuals and households, access to sub-national levels, lead adaptation initiatives on the decision-making, information, justice and rights is ground, and support related community-level climate essential to accumulate resources necessary to build action. However, not all institutions are equally effi- adaptive capacity. Public action can help overcome cient – where governance de�ciencies exist, inequali- barriers in access to such resources and capacities. Fail- ties between groups of people may be exacerbated or ure to do so is likely to reinforce structural inequities local populations may resort to informal channels for related to resource access and land tenure, enhance action (World Bank 2010b). existing inequalities between groups of people and seriously impede the capacity of disadvantaged groups In Bolivia, a signi�cant determinant of local adapta- to adapt to climate hazards. tion strategies and preferences was the presence or lack of institutions. During discussions with com- Effective adaptation requires institutions to support munity members, it was observed that the number enabling policies and systems at the national level and type of ‘institutional’ interventions in a particu- (e.g., climate monitoring and forecasting, disaster lar community affected the priority assigned to the risk management plans, food security programs, etc.); measures by the communities. For example, the San to ensure effective central-local coordination so that Pedro Community in the Plains region, which had policies and systems at the national level may target hitherto received little institutional support, awarded ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 35 priority to measures which required only limited exist between the state (grantor of land-use cer- institutional help. On the other hand, communi- ti�cates) and a local community (World Bank ties such as Saipina in the Valleys, which currently 2009b). bene�ts from signi�cant investments made by the local authorities and private institutions, prioritized n Privatization of common lands has in many investments requiring substantial external support. cases caused household livelihoods to depend Thus there is a ‘social learning’ process as communi- increasingly on a shrinking suite of activities. ties learn to make claims on external assistance. This problem is particularly acute in mangrove areas (Adger 1999b; Le Thi Van Hue and Scott In the national PSD workshop in Mozambique, 2008) where women and the poor in particular improved governance and related processes of decen- can no longer obtain additional income from tralization and capacity-building of local institutions goods such as clams and forest products that emerged as a key theme for supporting envisaged were once freely available for collection (Le Thi adaptation pathways. These factors were considered Van Hue 2006; McElwee 2009). As LeThi Van as a way not only for climate change adaptation to be Hue (2006) asserts, “rapid changes in local land integrated into national and sectoral level planning use systems, ownership, management practices processes but also as necessary prerequisites to fos- of mangrove resources and institutional arrange- tering a more attractive investment environment for ments in response to Doi Moi have weakened the domestic and foreign investors. In the PSD workshop livelihoods of poor households and sidestepped in the southern coastal city of Xai-Xai, the break-out women in particular, while opening up economic group focusing on forestry-based livelihoods noted opportunities for others, especially well-off that improved institutional control of wild�res, bet- households and men. Doi Moi, in effect, has built ter enforcement of forest laws and the establishment on and reinforced social heterogeneity and power of steering committees for �re management would and resource differences with communities.� help build resilience to future climate change related risks. Many participants suggested that the forestry At the same time, changes in government struc- sector did not necessarily need new laws to promote tures and related land use policies may bode well for more sustainable forest management, but rather more some vulnerable populations. In Ghana, the com- effective and fairer enforcement of existing laws. moditization of land in the forest zone seems to be reducing the vulnerability of migrants and different During the Doi Moi era in Vietnam, land and natu- ethnic groups in particular. Where in the past, these ral resource policy underwent fundamental changes groups suffered discrimination, today those that have that continue to shape local responses to climate sufficient �nancial resources may rent or purchase variability and change. One outcome of the pro- land and even become better off than their indigene gressive privatization of land rights, extended in the counterparts who do not own land. In addition, a new early 1990s to forest and agricultural land, has been ‘share-land-cropping’ system enables migrants to cul- a decline in access to commons, with severe conse- tivate land over a period of years after which they are quences for those whose livelihoods depended dis- eventually given a third of the farm as compensation. proportionately on them. While this practice is prevalent in the western region of Ghana, this new system has not become as common n Conflicts among land users have become increas- in other zones. Consequently, not all migrants and ingly common since the legal system was restruc- ethnic groups enjoy these bene�ts and most remain tured to only recognize one official claimant per quite vulnerable to climate vagaries depending on the plot of land. In the past, land-use relations could receiving zone in which they have settled. 36 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Enabling political, social and economic structures problems in Gola, a village located in the pastoral are necessary in order to support the increasing zone, are less related to climate variability than to the need for livelihood diversi�cation. In Ethiopia, in effects of soil degradation and the protection mea- order to reduce vulnerability to future climate vari- sures taken by the nearby sugar estate. In addition, ability and change, the kebelle (village) of Gola is overgrazing, deforestation and lack of organic fertil- shifting dominant livelihood activities from a pas- izer use were equally important causes for reduced toralist to mixed farming-livestock system. However, yields and reduced water storage in the soil while this process is long, requires considerable resources human, animal and crop diseases were considered to and dependency on farming has continued during be important and threatening of the livelihoods in the transformation. Low yields persist and farm- the rural areas. ing technology necessary to support these changes remains inadequate. In addition, since the beginning In Vietnam, over�shing has rendered communities of this process, the kebelle of Gola has lost a consid- in much of the central coast extremely vulnerable as a erable number of livestock. These factors combined signi�cant decline in �sh stocks over the past ten years demonstrate that even when awareness of the need to has placed in peril the livelihoods of hundreds of �sh- diversify is present, the perils associated with the pro- ing families. The occurrence of increasingly frequent cess may exacerbate vulnerability in the short term if and more intense floods and cyclones bode poorly appropriate support services and economic and social for these families already living close to the brink of structures are not in place. subsistence. This prospect is equally threatening in Ghana where livelihoods of coastal �sher families Natural Resource Management are increasingly precarious as �sh stocks dwindle, sea levels rise, and lack of skills narrows the possibilities Where ecosystems already suffer environmental of integration into the modern urban economy. degradation and poor management practices are common, climate change will pose an additional A further example, reported by all the communi- stress. Across all country case studies, local popula- ties in the Altiplano and Valleys regions in Bolivia, tions noted that ongoing practices of poor natural reflected how climate variability contributes to a cycle resource management signi�cantly exacerbate the of poor pastureland management and overall reduced vulnerability of local populations to climate change. pasture availability. According to the campesinos, pas- Improving enforcement of existing laws and gov- tures require more water today as the climate heats up ernment policies, as well as building the capacity of and germination does not occur by the end of winter. community associations to manage local resources The outcome was that animals were unable to �nd the effectively will be crucial for fostering socio-ecologi- same amount of grass to eat and had taken to chew- cal resilience. ing the roots of grasses, which had negative effects on pasture recovery times. Due to lack of available food, In Ethiopia, for the midland villages and for the number of animals kept per family has begun Keteteya in the eastern lowlands, soil erosion was to decline, causing food shortages in families and a reported to be an important factor contributing to manure de�cit for fertilizing crops. vulnerability during focus group discussions, whereas for Haro Kersa in the pastoral zone, animal diseases In the Valleys and Plains regions of Bolivia, goats were noted as having detrimental long-term effects. were reported to have begun to replace sheep, which Even though these hazards are not directly related require more and better quality forage. A farmer to climate, increased climate variability and change from the La Sillada community in the Valleys region is likely to aggravate the situation. Similarly, flood described this problem in detail: ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 37 “When I was young we had lots of animals at home BOX 9 - around 200 sheep and goats. Now have only 40. EROSION OF COLLECTIVE ACTION The problem is that animals have been dying from IN URBAN AREAS OF VIETNAM external parasites and disease. Previously we also had these problems but the animals were stronger Urban areas in Vietnam were observed to have and more resistant in those days, as well as bigger experienced a decline in collective action in tandem with increasing market activity. The urban tourism and fatter.� community in Hoi An consists of neighborhoods with long tradition of living together and supporting Policies and institutions should enforce sustainable each other in times of stress. However, the nature resource management and wise land-use planning. of social relations has recently undergone changes This can include the enforcement of existing laws as related by an elderly man in An Thang. He and government policies, as well as by improving the noted that 20 years ago during the floods, he and his neighbors helped each other to move personal capacity of community associations to manage local belongings from the �rst floor to second floor. After resources effectively. Planning is also needed to make that they sat down to share meals and express sure that activities gradually move from those areas of gratitude to one another. Today, this type of atten- high risk to areas of lower risk. tion no longer exists and help is something to be bought and sold. When floods strike today, he hires Social Capital and Collective Action laborers – this is easier and less time consuming for him. Meals with neighbors before and after floods are foregone. Collective action can play a signi�cant role in help- ing households cope and adapt with climate haz- ards, which can be a useful buffer for the future. Most households across all study sites undertook col- in the Mekong Delta sharing such information. Those lective actions but did so to varying extents adopting disaster preparation activities that required raising or different types of activities and in each study site. The spending of funds and/or additional labor were less types of activities undertaken in each community dif- common (e.g., repairing rescue roads, building sand- fer depending on the types of climate events and the bag dykes or dredging drainage and canal systems) level of seriousness of the events. People often ask for and were usually coordinated by mass organizations help from their friends and relatives, who are often such as the Veterans’ Union, Farmers’ Union, and the �rst line of defense for households that have been Women’s Union. Additional actions were often taken affected by storms or other climate events. They seek up by smaller neighborhood or kin-based groups, such shelter in relatives’ houses, and rely on relatives to help as helping one another to harvest a crop early before a them recover after the event and to provide loans if storm. To respond to flashfloods, the villagers in Tan �nancial assistance is needed. Trinh commune of Ha Giang helped each other by collecting and moving neighbors’ furniture and live- In Vietnam, prior to storm events, residents often stock before the flood. After the flood, they joined exchanged information about the impending hazards together to clean debris from their villages. Here, col- that they heard from early-warning systems, and shared lective action had clear shared bene�ts for all who par- information on coping mechanisms such as reinforc- ticipated. In other contexts, such as the increasingly ing houses. Information sharing about weather fore- prosperous city of Hoi An, collective action in flood casts and disaster preparation measures was the most response is becoming less prevalent (see Box 9). common form of collective action, most likely because this action comes with little cost, although this varied In household surveys in Ethiopia, community mem- by region, with less than half the households surveyed bers identi�ed measures they had used in the past 38 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT FIGURE 3 Past Household Adaptation Practices in Ethiopia Drought-tolerant crops 78% Rehabilitate terraces 72% Prevent soil erosion 69% Restore farm or forests 62% Adapt planting dates 51% 0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Percentage of households adopting adaptation practice to confront hazards. The most common adaptation vulnerable groups and that bottom-up community measures were selection of drought-tolerant crops, strategies warrant thorough review to ensure that the rehabilitation of terraces, soil erosion prevention pro- most vulnerable are included. grams, restoration of homestead or mountain forests, and adapting planting dates. Figure 3 presents the Social Safety Nets preferred strategies. It is becoming increasingly recognized that social Notably, three of the �ve strategies were part of pro- protection programs are likely to become a key vehi- grammatic efforts, supported by external projects. cle for supporting adaptation in developing coun- Through such supported collective action the com- tries (Stern 2007; World Bank 2009a). The need for munity identi�ed, implemented and in most cases improved social protection policies and programs in maintained the activities. In the pastoralist villages of order to help poor and excluded members of society Birko Debele and Haro Kersa, the majority of house- to effectively confront multiple risks and shocks from holds opted for communal pooling strategies. This climate change emerged as a common topic of dis- is most likely because they are dependent on com- cussion in workshops and focus groups discussions in munal grazing lands and communal watering points all countries. Approaches such as cash transfers, asset and consequently only have limited set of individual transfers, weather-based crop insurance, employment strategies at their disposal. guarantee schemes and social pensions will be more effective in protecting the livelihoods of poor and In addition, this widespread preference for communal excluded populations in the long-term if they account strategies suggests that local institutions play a pivotal for climate risks. role in improving the livelihoods of kebelle residents. At the same time, it was observed that marginal- Social protection can be derived from both public ized households were less likely to adopt communal and private sources, though the latter are much less strategies and generally received less support from reliable for poorer households who hold low social informal community institutions. This suggests that capital. This is because the perception of households’ communal interventions do not always target these wealth status by others affects the degree to which ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 39 they can access private social protection measures BOX 10 organized at village level through their socially-con- EFFECTS OF REMOVAL OF FORMER structed ‘entitlements’ to these measures. SOCIALIST SAFETY NETS IN VIETNAM In Ethiopia, analysis shows that private bene�ts During the Doi Moi process most of the former accrue largely to wealthier households facing crises socialist safety nets in Vietnam were eliminated. Consequently, most state services are today given that they are more likely to offer future recipro- provided by state, parastatal and private entities at cal assistance. At the household level, low levels of a cost much higher than in the past. These expenses entitlements to resources means that households are have hit poor households particularly hard (Evans et more vulnerable to climate and other shocks. Cluster al., 2007). analysis of household survey responses found that informal village social assistance institutions tended Today, the existing state safety net programs (primarily social security payments, disability pay- to bene�t large, landowning farmers; 52 percent of ments, health insurance, education subsidies, and large farmers accessed the social assistance institu- poverty alleviation programs) have the potential tions, compared to an average access rate for all to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate shocks; income groups of 34 percent. These �ndings point to however, in reality spending on social services is the likelihood of inequity in collective social protec- relatively low compared to the needs (Van De Walle tion mechanisms through community institutions 2004). such as idir and kire (informal insurance organiza- Nguyen Ngoc Quynh (2003) notes that “There is a tions), jiggie and debbo (labor sharing organizations), contingency fund run by the central government to and iqub (informal rotating savings associations). minimize the consequences of natural calamities and other emergencies by dispensing disaster relief This �nding underlines the importance of ensur- to regions and households. Field studies indicate, ing that public social protection transfers are also however, that emphasis is placed primarily on sur- viving the emergency, and that credit is a common available to vulnerable households, with transparent instrument for disaster recovery … Because insti- targeting processes, as now being undertaken by the tutional capacity and �nances are limited, the aid Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP) in Ethiopia. tends to be short of what would be necessary to get Such programs help smooth household consumption, households back on their pre-crisis development and through natural resource management-targeted paths. Poor households in particular are prone to public works, help build area resilience, but may also further impoverishment as a result�. Large numbers of eligible people simply do not receive safety net thereby help households take on more of the necessary coverage. Furthermore, social bene�ts are often risk needed to diversify successfully through long- tied to one’s location; undocumented migrants do term adaptation measures in which more vulnerable not have access to social safety net services if they households are unable to invest (e.g., education). lack household registration cards. Changes in the governance system of Vietnam brought about signi�cant changes in the provision of social services to the poor. Box 10 describes how as a result, many Vietnamese may now be more vul- nerable to climate and non-climate related hazards than before. 40 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Six ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 41 Adaptation to Climate Change The social component of the EACC study corrobo- and inform conclusions regarding the types of fac- rates a key �nding of the EACC Study Synthesis tors that may enable autonomous adaptation. report: development is the best form of adaptation, though adaptation will require developing differently. Learning from the Past As there exists a great deal of uncertainty regarding when and where the effects of climate change will Past coping strategies may hold valuable lessons for occur, a solid understanding of climate risks as well as future climate change adaptation. Experience plays the ways in which the poor are most vulnerable will an important role in coping with problems and tra- be essential to inform identi�cation of future climate ditional knowledge can be useful for developing action that maximizes co-bene�ts with sustainable strategies to adapt to changing environmental condi- development. Measures that facilitate “good devel- tions. In addition, basing adaptation strategies on past opment� may comprise a combination of effective practices may help address the speci�c needs of ethnic past coping strategies; no-regrets options that result minorities and indigenous communities for managing in net social bene�ts even in the absence of climate climate change impacts. change; and new interventions that may be required to address the numerous risks (such as irreversibil- In Bolivia, indigenous knowledge can play an impor- ity of impacts) associated with climate change. This tant role in building adaptive capacity to enhance the section examines the different types of action that resilience of local populations and inform national will be best suited to meet the needs of those most policies (see Box 11). Indigenous peoples use a wide vulnerable to climate change. and valuable diversity of measures to manage climate variability. At the same time, in all of the studied com- As discussed below, �ndings drawn from the six munities, indigenous farmers considered that their tra- country cases demonstrate that vulnerable groups ditional methods for predicting weather and managing preferred and prioritized a mix of old and new, hard climate variability were becoming increasingly ineffec- and soft adaptation and no-regrets options. In addi- tive. For many, these predictive capacities are no longer tion, local populations distinguish between the need as reliable as they were for past generations. for both planned and autonomous adaptation mea- sures. Social norms, cultural beliefs and past expe- For Vietnam, residents in Ha Giang province in rience with institutions and social service providers the northern mountains have historically relied on influence local visions of future adaptation pathways “indigenous knowledge� to cope with adverse climate 42 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT BOX 11 when primary activities like agriculture are disrupted due to hazards. In the river flood prone hotspots, INDIGENOUS PRACTICES CAN INFORM FUTURE ADAPTATION IN BOLIVIA elders can predict floods and erosion simply by ana- lyzing the flow of river water. The pre-Inca culture of Tiwanuku had sophisticated irrigation systems, which could hold valuable les- sons for the design of future water management practices. More speci�cally, the indigenous of the Local Adaptation highlands traditionally cultivated their crops at Preferences different altitudes, which allowed them to produce different varieties of potatoes simultaneously, and buffered against climate shocks including droughts, Local adaptation preferences are conditioned by frosts and hail. In the lowlands, the Moxos indige- a host of social factors. Vulnerability to climate nous peoples established a canal system to regulate change is not uniform but differs according to the water and reduce the risks for flooding. These traditional adaptation strategies are still valid today socio-cultural axes of the society concerned. Where and could still greatly bene�t areas where they are socio-economic processes are inequitable, the poor- no longer practiced. est and most vulnerable are likely to experience mar- ginalization. Indeed, social differentiation and access At the same time, it is becoming increasingly to resources as enabled by both formal and informal evident that the value of this traditional knowledge institutions will influence the different adaptation could be enhanced when combined with new technology and science. For example, as weather measures people undertake in their communities. The patterns become increasingly unpredictable, indig- nature of the inheritance system, governance systems enous farmers could signi�cantly bene�t from the and land tenure relations are important in this regard interpretation of meteorological data and related (see Box 12 for an example from Ghana). early warning systems. Table 4 presents a very wide variety of community livelihood strategies in the Plains region of Bolivia. This diversity of options can be explained by the events. However, as in Bolivia, coping traditional following factors: �rst, each strategy tends to reflect methods are becoming increasingly unreliable. For the speci�c concerns of an individual community, example, during oppressive summer heat, members especially regarding the extent to which the com- of the Thai An commune had built their roofs with munity is exposed and sensitive to climate change. imperata grass because of its cooling abilities. How- Adaptation measures identi�ed by communities and ever, in order to prevent flash floods, a national refor- the order of priority assigned to each also mirror estation program decreed that forest monocultures of the kind of measures or investments that have been acacia would be planted on the grassland. In addition pursued (or not) in the community in the past. In to rendering this traditional coping strategy ineffec- effect, this shows how preferred adaptation strate- tive, this reforestation program has proven ineffective gies depend on the recent history of a particular in preventing flash floods. community. For example, communities that have bene�tted from investments in water management In waterlogged and flash flood prone hotspots of schemes that have resulted in safer drinking water Bangladesh, people are skilled in making tradi- do not consider water management for improved tional handicrafts such as �shing traps (charons) from drinking water to be necessary for their future liveli- bamboo and mats from murta trees. These have now hood strategy as they do not view the current system become an important secondary source of income as inadequate. ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 43 TABLE 2 PRIORITIZED ADAPTATION STRATEGIES, BY COMMUNITY, IN THE PLAINS REGION OF BOLIVIA San Isidro Puerto San Borja Agosto 15 Valparaiso (Yapacani Municipality) (San Ignacio Municipality) (Yapacani Municipality) (San Pedro Municipality) 1 Water supply system Construction of water Emergency water recovery Community flat boat to trans- for cattle hole (aguada) and Educational Center port produce to market. 2 Construction of Family plots to be fenced Construction of defenses on To plant fast-growing social housing off the River Yapacaní vegetables. 3 Improved dual- Grain storage system Repair of 5 km of main road Domestic irrigation using purpose cattle in the Agosto 15 community waterwheels in orchards 4 Construction of the Con- Irrigation pumps to be Installing windbreaks in rice 30 irrigation pumps for dorito Bridge installed paddies irrigating family orchards in the Valparaiso community (with river water) 5 Pilot centre for apiculture Construction of arti�cial Restarting rice production in 10 irrigation pumps for lifting improvement terracing the Agosto 15 community river water to irrigate family vegetable plots 6 Controlling high Construction of furrow To diversify agricultural incidence of weeds in terracing (camellones) production by planting citrus pastures and orchards and cocoa 7 Joint production of citrus and coffee 8 Diagnostic study on flow- ering times of local plants Source: Community workshops in Bolivia The presence or lack of institutions is a second deter- the identi�cation of adaptation measures was, “What minant for identifying, prioritizing and sequencing should we do to adapt so that we do not have to aban- adaptation strategies in Bolivia. Where local authori- don the community?� A woman from the municipal- ties and privatized institutions have a history of sup- ity of Beni in the Plains region argued: porting development, community members will count on their continued support and prioritize measures “We do not want to move the community; for the that require external support. Where institutions do authorities this is the easy way out. We want to not have a strong presence, prioritized adaptation stay in the community, even if floods occur. It cost options will require little external support. us dearly to move our community to this place and it is now in a strategic location, everybody passes As discussed earlier, migration can be a favorable by our port. Assistance should focus on helping us autonomous adaptation option resulting in higher to stay in our own place, not to help move us.� income for families in sending areas who receive remittances. However, in rural communities in Social preferences may be more influential deter- Bolivia, the decision to migrate is strongly influenced minants of adaptation preferences than economic by social preferences. Temporary migration was not rationale. From the above example, one can see that prioritized as an adaptation measure in the studied populations will not always opt for wealth maximiz- communities. Rather, the logic of the communities in ing options. Indeed, in Bolivia, where land is closely 44 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT BOX 12 linked not only with subsistence but also with cul- ture and identity, indigenous populations may view UNDERSTANDING LOCAL SYSTEMS: RESOURCE ACCESS AND LAND TENURE remaining on ancestral land as more important than IN GHANA the pursuit of more lucrative endeavors elsewhere. Understanding local systems is important for under- Hard and Soft Adaptation Options standing local adaptation preferences. In Ghana, access to resources and the form of land tenure system varied from community to community. Adaptation options need to be understood as a suite of possibilities to be undertaken by a host of people Within the forest communities, because some land and groups. Distinguishing between hard and soft is reserved to sustain forest culture, land for farming adaptation options will be necessary, as governments has become very scarce. In addition, acquiring new may tend to focus attention on the hard adaptation land is dif�cult due to the traditional land tenure options. These options are often more expensive and system in place. In this system, it is the Akyekyere- hene – the traditional custodian of the land – who more likely to attract donor funding. At the same controls community lands. Community chief and time, they may also be less flexible in the long term elders may only assist in acquiring private land(s) if forecasting of future climate impacts is over- or for farming by leading interested persons to the under-estimated. That is why soft adaptation options Akyekerehene. Alternatively, they may link people (e.g., policy reform), which are often less costly in with landowners prepared to engage in “abunu� monetary terms, more flexible and tend to focus on the or “ye ma yenkye�, a traditional sharecropping arrangement. affected people rather than the affected land, should be considered and combined with hard options. Indeed, Traditional systems practiced in cocoa farm- in Mozambique, a somewhat surprising conclusion ing are the “nhweso�, “abunnu,� and “ye ma emerged from study results: attempting to protect any yenkye�. portion of the coastline with hard adaptation measures The “nhweso� is a system whereby a caretaker is would constitute maladaptation, while investment in engaged on the cocoa farm(s) and is responsible for the maintenance of the farm on behalf of the soft measures such as evacuation plans or relocation landowner for some income. of people out of commonly flooded areas would make The “abunu� (halves) is a system where a more economic sense and result more sustainable in the person cultivates cocoa for a landowner or long-term. Yet it is also important to note that evacua- farm owner and is entitled to half of the farm’s tion plans and similar soft options may also encounter proceeds and land. serious shortcomings including local resistance at the The “ye ma yenkye� system employs similar practices as the “abunu� however proceeds and notion of being forcibly displaced and an inability to land are shared on agreed proportions with the evaluate an evacuation plan’s effectiveness until it’s too farm/land owner. late – that is, until after populations have been moved. Migrant land owners pay levies to the akeykyedie stool and local government for the In Bolivia, during focus group discussions, it was use of lands. observed that communities perceive adaptation strat- During focus group discussions, men revealed that egies not as isolated measures, nor as single projects, most of the farmers in the community have inher- but rather as a complex set of complementary mea- ited their land from forefathers. In contrast, settler sures that must comprise both hard and soft mea- farmers are at a disadvantage as their only recourse sures. Infrastructure investments were perceived to be is to rent land at four hundred cedis (approximately insufficient if complementary efforts were not made equal to USD$400) per acre for three years and to promote capacity building, institutional develop- abide by the terms of the agreement. ment, and in many cases, fundamental transformation ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 45 to underlying logic and livelihood strategies. Local particular areas. For example, building embankments residents described these adaptation measures as a to reduce the exposure of a community to floods or hierarchy with a speci�c order of execution, as some storms focus on protection and were suggested by strategies will depend on the sustainable implementa- populations living in flood and cyclone prone areas; tion of others. For example, while the need for invest- at the same time, soft measures such as diversifying ment in irrigation infrastructure across the country is livelihood opportunities generally were seen as neces- clear, the positive impacts of this investment will only sary across all hotspots and were tightly aligned with be realized if simultaneous investments are made in local perceptions of good development practice. Dur- water resource management including in water user ing local PSD workshops, participants emphasized the associations and in supporting rural �nance. need to invest in speci�c social policies to reduce local vulnerability. Suggestions included restricting early Similarly, in Ethiopia, local communities preferred a marriage and polygamy; empowering women and pro- combination of hard and soft investments. In PSD mote female education; and ensuring access to social workshops, participants noted that investments to security. A interesting proposal for improved disaster strengthen national hydro-meteorological systems preparedness was for women to broadcast disaster would be more sustainable if local institutions are able warning information as other women were more likely to support local populations absorb new information to heed female voices and take appropriate action. and technology through, for example, agricultural extension services. In Mozambique, the most common adaptation pref- erences identi�ed in PSD workshops were combined In Bangladesh, regardless of the hazard, some sugges- with �eldwork �ndings to generate the schema pre- tions for soft adaptation options were common in all sented in Table 5. All of the planned options in the hotspots, while hard measures were often speci�c to left hand column represent potential government TABLE 5 KEY ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN MOZAMBIQUE* PLANNED ADAPTATION AUTONOMOUS ADAPTATION Hard Flood control dikes and levies More robust buildings Coastal flood control gates Farm-scale water storage facilities Dams and irrigation channels Deep wells to provide drinking water for people and Improved roadways animals Improved communication infrastructure Grain storage facilities Improved hospitals and schools Improved food processing equipment Soft Improved early warning of climatic hazards, Better utilization of short season and drought resistant and of dam releases crops to prepare for drought, floods, and cyclones Better planning and management of forest, �sh, Diversi�cation of flood and drought risk by maintaining and other natural resources �elds in both highland and lowland areas. Resettlement of populations to lower risk zones Better household and community management and More credit and �nancial services for small use of natural resources, including wild fruits businesses and rural development Practice of soil conservation agriculture Better education and information for the rural Migration to lower risk areas areas Diversi�cation of livelihoods away from agriculture Improved health care, social services, and social Better planning of how much grain to save for per- support for all people sonal consumption, and how much to sell for income generation * The options in plain text respond directly to climate hazards, while those in italics represent measures to increase the adaptive capacity of the population, or to make them more resilient to shocks to their livelihoods in general. 46 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT interventions. The right hand column represents ranked above the infrastructure options such as sea autonomous measures that people can undertake on dike repair, given the lower costs of mangrove plant- their own. These results indicate that more vulnerable ing and the potential for this activity to be more groups will not have the resources or skills to under- pro-poor. This supports the cost-bene�t analysis that take all measures they deem priority. This is particu- is part of the EACC analysis as well as a main rec- larly true for the hard options that require resources. ommendation from the global synthesis report: that However, in the absence of an enabling economic ‘cheaper’ soft options should be given due consider- and political environment, many of the soft options ation when developing an adaptation strategy. Indeed, are also challenging to undertake. For example, many these options are very much on the table for many of participants noted the fact that people would like to the people engaged with climate change in Vietnam. diversify income, however there are few opportuni- ties to do so. To support local aspirations, strong, No-Regrets Adaptation Options flexible institutions will be needed to support rural economic development. Local PSD workshops in Adaptation options that realize co-bene�ts with sus- Ethiopia similarly emphasized the need for regional tainable development will fare better in improving development and structural shifts toward service and the lives and livelihoods of poor and socio-econom- industry sectors to improve employment outcomes ically disadvantaged groups. In contrast, policies that for youth and vulnerable persons. focus solely on adaptation to climate change may not account for external political economy factors that limit Interestingly, during PSD workshops in Vietnam, adaptive capacity. For example, flood problems in the most groups envisaged a combination of hard and pastoralist village of Gola, Ethiopia while problem- soft adaptation options necessary for building resil- atic, are related less to climate variability but more to ience. In several groups, afforestation of mangroves effects of soil degradation and the protection measures ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 47 taken by a nearby sugar estate. High food prices as workshop participants’ visions and goals for the future well as human, animal and crop diseases are additional were based on a realistic assessment of the strengths, factors which contribute to vulnerability of rural potentials, weaknesses and threats. The future pri- populations. Indeed, dealing with only one element of orities identi�ed included improvements in resilience vulnerability (e.g., exposure) or focusing development among the poor by improving basic living conditions policies too narrowly on climate as a driver of vulnera- such as improved access to health care through health bility will not yield sustainable responses. This is a risk insurance, safe water and affordable clean energy. inherent in National Adaptation Program of Action Adaptation options and pathways were assessed based (NAPA) documents that focus �rst on climate and on the synergies between responses to climate change then on how to prevent climate change from inhibit- and the desired development pathway. Speci�c (and ing development. gendered, see Box 13) priorities focused on improving agricultural production, improved land management In Mozambique, results from the PSD workshops— practices, managed migration, and improved condi- especially the local workshop in the southern coastal tions of women, improved governance and functional city of Xai-Xai—revealed that except within agricul- institutional structures. ture, development goals were in general not threatened very much by climate change, and that the preferred Today, the majority of investments at the municipal adaptation options are no-regrets options (meaning level in Bolivia are targeted at the development of that they make sense regardless of whether or not cli- improved water management schemes, as well as to mate change is occurring, or under any future climate improved agriculture and livestock practices. None of scenario). These results may be a result of workshop the studied municipalities had developed measures or design: in the Mozambique workshops, participants assigned funding to interventions aimed speci�cally at �rst considered development visions within differ- ent economic sectors, the types of factors that could BOX 13 undermine these visions, and only then thought about how climate change could prevent the achievement GENDER-SPECIFIC ADAPTATION of development objectives. In the NAPA process, by PREFERENCES IN GHANA contrast, the question was somewhat different: what Women in the Savannah region of Ghana prioritized can be done to adapt to those climate impacts that new and improved seed varieties that withstand could pose a threat to development? This results in the current climate conditions are becoming approaches that are much more focused on climate increasingly relevant. Women also mentioned the rather than on no-regrets options. Interestingly, need for improved access to loan facilities in order to facilitate petty trading which in turn would help results from the PSD workshops in Mozambique them support their families. At the same time, nonetheless largely corroborated adaptation needs men cited the need for reliable water sources for identi�ed in the NAPA. irrigation, such as dams and wells for dry season gardening. In addition, men underscored the need Results from research in Ghana highlight the need for cheap and subsidized farming inputs such as for policies to address both sectoral and geographic bullocks, tractor, fertilizer, and improved seeds to facilitate their farming activities. This mix of hard circumstances in order to develop climate resilient and soft measures may be considered as good development interventions for vulnerable popula- development practice. tions. For example, participants in PSD workshops agreed that improving crop yields without taking Source: Women’s focus group discussion in Tetauku (Savannah region) steps to improve road and marketing facilities would be counterproductive. In addition, the Ghanaian 48 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT confronting climate change. However, in the munici- climate change adaptation and natural resource man- pality of Yapacani (vulnerable to floods), a disaster agement. The adaptation options identi�ed at local risk management program had been crafted to raise and national levels generally aligned with the natural awareness among the local population for dealing resource and agriculture focus in the NAPA, which with flood events through an early warning systems also identi�es needed investments in crop insurance, and a series of related measures. While the problem wetlands protection, carbon livelihoods, agro-forestry of climate change is still very new to local authorities, and anti-malaria initiatives. it is remarkable to observe emergency response mea- sures being integrated into a longer-term develop- In Mozambique, there are very few differences in ment strategy so that local populations will become outcomes between the NAPA process and the PSD more resilient to climate change impacts. process. The PSD workshops identi�ed the options previously noted in the NAPA as the most impor- Congruence of National and Local Plans tant elements of adaptation pathways that directly with Local Adaptation Preferences addressed climate concerns. In the regional workshop in Beira (central Mozambique), participants focused Do identi�ed adaptation priorities align with exist- most closely on the different climate impacts and ing development strategies? how to adapt to each of them. All of the options they identi�ed as most important map onto one of The PSD workshops conducted in case countries the NAPA priority areas. In one respect, however, revealed broad support for NAPA documents (where the PSD workshops in Mozambique —especially the they exist) and related climate strategy priorities workshop in the southern city of Xai Xai—reached in-country, in such areas as agriculture and water an implicit conclusion different from that of the resources management, land management, roads, and NAPA process. That conclusion was that, except early warning systems. However, they also revealed within agriculture, development goals were in general stakeholder preferences for investments in gover- not threatened very much by climate change, and that nance, social protection, training and education, and far more important are those development initiatives land tenure. Training and education was identi�ed as that make sense independent of climate change. a need not only for livelihood diversi�cation, but also in the area of increased capacity-building in commu- In Vietnam, the main adaptation measures men- nity-based approaches to climate change adaptation tioned in the National Target Program (NTP) for and natural resource management. climate change are mainly hard adaptation measures (sea dikes, reinforced infrastructure, more durable In Ethiopia, three local PSD workshops (in high- buildings) with less attention to other measures, such land, midland and lowland areas), and one national as resettlement, storm warning systems and mangrove workshop, revealed broad support for NAPA and planting (MONRE 2009). Little attention has been related climate strategy priorities in-country, in areas paid to social vulnerability or ‘soft’ adaptation mea- as agriculture and water resources management, sures like community mobilization plans, social safety land management, roads, and early warning systems. nets, insurance schemes, livelihood diversi�cation, However, they also revealed stakeholder preferences increasing institutional capacity or the role of local for investments in governance, social protection, action and social capital in building resilience and training and education, and land tenure. Training and adaptive capacity outside of government programs. education was identi�ed as a need not only for liveli- There appears to be a disconnect at the national level hood diversi�cation, but also in the area of increased in the understanding that soft adaptation can play an capacity-building in community-based approaches to important role as well. In some cases, soft adaptation ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 49 options are actually discouraged in existing law, such BOX 14 as labor migration. UNINTENDED NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF AGRICULTURE POLICY IN VIETNAM Interestingly, in the local workshops in Vietnam, some of the groups tended to favor hard options, and In Vietnam, government policy to encourage diversi- several groups preferred only soft options, but no �cation particularly through provision of hybrid and high yielding varieties has led to rising incomes and group preferred solely hard options – the dominant increased agricultural production in the short-term. focus of the National Target Program. In 1980 only 17% of the rice grown in Vietnam was improved, hybrid, or ‘modern’ rice and by 2000 the Similarly, a notable distinction was observed between total was more than 90%. In addition, capacity for the views of communities and local authorities with triple cropping has increased annual production of regard to climate change in Bolivia which has sig- rice to well over 10 tons per hectare in some areas. ni�cant implications for future development and Nonetheless, these improved varieties have adaptation planning. Local officials interviewed resulted in a decline of indigenous seed varieties believed that climate change is something that will including maize in the uplands and ‘floating rice’ come about in the future and that tackling it would in the Mekong Delta. Consequently, many farmers involve a series of adaptation measures, especially have been forced to adopt less diverse production infrastructure-building. This approach differs sub- strategies due to this new reliance on single crops and varieties (McElwee 2007). In addition, these stantially from that revealed in interviews in the com- changes may also be contributing to maladaptation munities, where it is considered that climate change in the long-term as increased production capacity has been an accepted part of life for many years and has imposed high capital costs on many farmers that addressing it requires strategies to be developed and required doubling labor input and cut into - given that adaptation implies a fundamental change pro�ts. Thus, despite spikes in agricultural produc- in livelihood strategies for communities, rather than tivity in the long term these farmers may ultimately become less resilient to climate events. (Hoang being con�ned to one-off investments. Tuyet Minh 2000). Explaining the official approach the Mayor of Cura- huara Municipality in the Altiplano stated: community engagement is crucial for ensuring “In our community it would seem that over the that climate action supports the wider develop- last 10 years it has certainly got warmer and at ment agenda. In addition, some adaptation mea- critical times water is in short supply. But for the sures, including those dealing with roads and water moment climate change is not a problem here and basin management may require cooperation between is not recognized as such in this municipality. It’s several communities. It is likely that adaptation mea- true that there are natural disasters but these have sures that are analyzed, prioritized and negotiated always been common in our area and we have an with community members and on a cross-community annual budget of Bs35,000 to deal with this. No basis will be more sustainable. doubt in future there will be more disasters.� As shown by Holden et al. (2006), it is important that Adaptation as a Social Process the selection of communal strategies is based on a bottom-up approach in which the local community is Strengthened civil society, using decentralized involved in all stages of the project in order to assure structures; engaging traditional and local authori- durability of the investments. At the same time, as ties in planning; and using existing platforms for marginalized groups already are in a more vulnerable 50 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT situation and have lower capabilities of improving the situation themselves, it is important that they are explicitly considered in development policies. Strat- egies proposed by communities themselves should be adequately reviewed, as they may not adequately involve more marginal households. In Bolivia, community members elaborated on the need for processes that underpin the devel- opment of adaptation policies to respect existing community practices, which play a role in guid- ing the prioritization of investments. For example, municipal investments are typically identi�ed and prioritized in community and municipal workshops in which civil society directly makes decisions. Recent changes to Bolivia’s Constitution establish the right for indigenous and regional autonomies to exist within departmental limits. These structural changes aim to provide space for greater social and political inclusion for indigenous and peasant groups and establish a framework for a much decentral- ized government structure reflective of the cultural diversity of Bolivia. While to date these autonomies have not yet formed, it is possible that once created, they will follow the participatory planning structure already established at the municipal level whereby investments are identi�ed and prioritized and deci- sions are made in community and municipal work- shops. Amplifying the voice of indigenous groups and representatives of regional interests as well as provision of more direct access to information and decision-making procedures has the potential to improve adaptive capacity of these traditionally marginalized groups. The PSD workshops in Mozambique identi�ed the need for agricultural extension, effective early warn- ing and information from upstream dam operators on water release to increase capacity to cope with floods. Similarly, the Government of Ethiopia plans to improve national hydro-meteorological ser- vices by adding weather stations across the country and integrating them with improvements to agri- cultural extension system to provide farmers with ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 51 better information on seasonal forecasts. Facilitat- approaches also dominate, with speci�c ministries ing information flows and promoting information developing their own plans for agriculture, the water exchange between the local, regional and national sector, energy sector, and the like. This can lead to level authorities increases the likelihood of capturing competition among agencies. This division of activi- the comparative advantage of all parties involved and ties among ministries and sectors (e.g., agriculture, strengthening their adaptive capacity. industry) runs the risk of purportedly inter-sectoral approaches (like urban planning) not approaching In Vietnam, there is a signi�cant lack of horizontal adaptation in an integrated fashion but rather simply integration as each ministry and each province and replicating existing administrative divides and ’silo’ locality designs its own separate action plan. Sectoral behavior, such as not sharing information. 52 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Seven ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 53 Key Findings and Recommendations for Achieving Climate-Resilient Development What follows is a set of key �ndings and recommen- Key Findings dations drawn from the six social component country study reports and the �nal EACC global synthesis report. These �ndings convey that a social lens, which Vulnerability to Climate Change emphasizes the importance of considering all fac- tors that determine exposure, sensitivity and adaptive n Vulnerability to climate change is socially dif- capacity, is vital for improving analysis, diagnosis, pro- ferentiated. Exposure to climate risk will pose cess, policy and instrument design and outcomes for different risks to different groups of people. The vulnerable populations. ability to weather a cyclone or a drought will be shaped by a host of social factors including degree The use of innovative, participatory methods in this study, of social inequality; access to resources; poverty such as participatory scenario analysis tools, is valuable status; lack of representation; and effectiveness of for developing evidence-based policy recommendations systems of social security, early warning and plan- to guide future pro-poor adaptation planning and pro- ning. For example, gender inequities may lead cesses. By bringing together local stakeholders’ knowl- women to experience climate hazards differently edge with expert information, the social component than men; similarly, the poor are likely to suffer generated new evidence on how vulnerability is socially disproportionately compared to the rich; and differentiated; identi�ed the risks and bene�ts of adap- children and the elderly or people with a limited tation options for a range of actors in an integrated and skill set may suffer more than others. Social iden- cross-sectoral manner; and highlighted the importance tity may also lead to restricted access to certain of transparency, social accountability, and strong gover- resources and subsequent lower adaptive capac- nance for achieving pro-poor, climate resilient develop- ity. Social as well as political-economic structures ment interventions over the medium- to long-term. will influence the impact of climate shocks and trends. Embedding these �ndings in ongoing policy processes would help to enable real-time dialogue with policy- n Across all countries, those consistently iden- makers, frame opportunities for future involvement of ti�ed as most vulnerable to climate risk were poor and vulnerable groups in decision making, and those already socially vulnerable (elderly, facilitate adaptation planning that maximizes co-ben- women, children, sick, disabled); ethnic minori- e�ts with sustainable development. ties; indigenous peoples; people dependent on 54 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT natural resources for their livelihoods (e.g., pasto- – otherwise the risk of adopting maladaptive ralists); and migrants. The poor were identi�ed as actions is high. Most actions taken by vulnerable particularly vulnerable, but in some cases “richer� groups today are really only short term coping groups will also be greatly impacted. mechanisms; planning for adaptation over the long-term is generally weak. n People that contend with multiple inequali- ties will be most vulnerable to climate change. n Most adaptation actions to date have focused For example, many of the poorest belong to eth- on hard infrastructure development. Deci- nic minority groups; largely depend on natural sions to invest in hard adaptation measures may resources for their livelihoods; live in rural areas be “high-regrets� options in social and economic away from market centers; and have low levels of terms; the consequent irreversibility of these education. Their vulnerability to climate change options merits very careful review. Longer-term is conditioned by climate and non-climate related adaptation options are generally lacking though factors. This highlights the need for adaptation there is some focus on building response capac- measures and development interventions to ity: e.g., investing in disaster risk management; address the multiple underlying drivers of vulner- having yearly evacuation drills; providing weather ability in order to build local resilience. data to local authorities, etc. “Thinking outside the box� on adaptation was not very common n Sensitivity factors to climate-related hazards across most �eld sites and may be attributed to are increasingly concentrated in particular the tendency for individuals to be constrained regions within countries. In many cases, the poor by their current context and inability to plan for (such as recent urban in-migrants) are relegated future uncertainty. to the most marginal areas where access to insti- tutional support and basic social services is dif- n Lack of knowledge for dealing with climate �cult or nonexistent. impacts is a major obstacle to achieving socio- ecological resilience. For example, coral bleach- Adaptation to Climate Change ing and loss of �sh is likely take place over a longer period, even as households may want to n Local adaptation preferences are socially differ- scale up their opportunities for ecotourism and entiated and conditioned by a host of social fac- home stays. If they pursue these options just as tors. ‘One size �ts all’ adaptation planning does they are losing the natural resources on which the not work; different communities among different tourism would be based, they may be left worse regions will have different ideas about how to off than before. If households had better access match their development objectives to the realities to long term forecasts for marine reef resources, of climate change impacts on these development they might choose to develop a different pathway trajectories. Interventions need to be designed in for the future. an integrated and cross-sectoral manner in order to address risks and bene�ts of adaptation options n Enabling livelihood diversi�cation is essential for different stakeholders across scales. to manage climate risk; in some cases, profound transformation of livelihood activities will be n Experience with climate events to date and required. Enabling social, political and economic past coping measures hold valuable lessons for structures will be necessary to support sector- the future; but future adaptation require new speci�c investments aimed at strengthening the knowledge and improved access to information adaptive capacity of vulnerable groups. ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 55 n Preferred adaptation options vary remarkably priority areas such as agriculture and water across sites. Yet �ndings consistently revealed resources management; land management; roads; local preferences for both autonomous and and early warning systems. In addition, addi- planned adaptation; a mix of hard and soft mea- tional investments in governance; social protec- sures; and awareness of the importance of pursuing tion; training and education; and land tenure are both communal and individual adaptation mea- strongly favored at sub-national levels. sures was evident. In addition, the most effective adaptation strategies were perceived to be those that address overall drivers of vulnerability rather Recommendations those that focus on climate change alone. Exam- ples of such measures include no-regrets options; These �ndings lead to the following provision of better access to credit; and improved recommendations: training and capacity building initiatives. 1. Combine investments in hard and soft adapta- n Local adaptation preferences largely coincided tion options to meet the needs of the poorest with adaptation plans and climate change strat- and most vulnerable. Scaled-up investments in egies at the national level (e.g., NAPAs). Broad human capital (education and training) as well support exists at sub-national levels for national as organizational development (user committees, 56 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT disaster preparedness groups) can help reduce resource management institutions and an enabling vulnerability in the medium and long-term, and market environment. Such no-regrets options can complement hard infrastructure investments such be implemented now and will improve livelihoods as irrigation and roads. even in the absence of climate change. 2. Consider and build on past strategies to cope 6. Governance matters. Improving climate change with climate variability as they may hold valu- policies will require action that supports inclusive able lessons for future climate change adapta- and participatory decision making; transparency tion. Past adaptation experience (combining among parties concerned; accountability for deci- indigenous knowledge and introduced best sions made; capacity to secure implementation practice) can offer insights, though planned and enforcement of decisions made; integra- development policies and measures must avoid tion and coherence of policies across sectors and supporting maladaptive actions and processes scales; and communication and consultation with that deliver short-term gains or economic ben- vulnerable populations. A strong state will address e�ts but may exacerbate vulnerability in the vulnerabilities by designing, implementing and medium to long-term. enforcing sustainable development policies. This includes translating policies into incentives and 3. Better access to information, budget setting, opportunities while using disincentives to dis- and planning processes are needed across scales courage investments that may perpetuate vulner- in order to foster socially-sustainable adaptation ability in the long term. investments. This includes improved citizen access to information; improved coordination between 7. Developing adaptation interventions through a institutions both across vertical and horizontal participatory and inclusive stakeholder process scales; and provision of better early warning systems helps ensure that climate action supports the and climate forecasting technology. The principle wider development agenda. Strengthened civil of subsidiarity (i.e., decisions devolved as close society, using decentralized structures, engaging to end-users as possible) should be considered. traditional and local authorities in planning, and using existing platforms for community engage- 4. Social policy interventions, including social ment is crucial to help ensure users are involved in protection, and education and training, are needs assessment, investment choices, and assess- needed to help reduce shocks and stresses ment of service delivery. to households from climate variability and change and support livelihood diversi�cation. 8. Target geographic regions where sensitiv- Programs need to ensure they target the poor- ity to climate hazards is high and consider est and most marginalized, and that they support multi-sectoral investments that build area area resilience. resilience. As sensitivity to climate hazards are increasingly concentrated in particular 5. Adaptation interventions that realize co- regions within countries, adaptation policies bene�ts with sustainable development should at the national level should take into account be pursued. Policies should not focus solely the diverse socio-ecological settings within the on climate change adaptation but also address country, and devise area-speci�c interventions underlying drivers of vulnerability including lack that support the livelihoods of these vulnerable of infrastructure, poor governance, regional bias populations. Multi-sectoral interventions that in investments, and the need for flexible natural aim to improve area resilience are particularly ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 57 effective forms of investment, including pro- investments in infrastructure and services should gramming in education and skills training, be complemented by enabling policies such as social protection, roads, market services, and improved land policy, improved natural resource natural resource management. management and the transfer and adoption of new technology. Without these supportive ele- 9. Invest in enabling policies that enhance ments, planners may inadvertently support mal- sector-speci�c interventions. Climate change adaptive actions that perpetuate vulnerability in adaptation portfolios that feature stand-alone the long-term. 58 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Eight ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 59 Next Steps and Challenges Ahead As the world’s poor and most disadvantaged groups government, the private sector and faith-based organi- will be hardest hit by climate change, a social perspec- zations will be required. Identifying and coordinating tive is crucial for gearing climate action in a direction the development needs, preferences and priorities of that prioritizes their most urgent and pressing needs relevant actors will be the �rst step. Anchoring devel- in the short, medium and long-term. Indeed, build- opment visions in the notion of social justice must ing resilience to climate risk has become a core devel- follow. A socially just approach to climate change opment issue. Understanding vulnerability to climate emphasizes the need to empower those most vulner- change as socially differentiated and recognizing that able by amplifying their voices, improving institutional adaptation is shaped by a range of social, economic capacity to better service their needs and reducing and political factors is fundamental for devising existing inequalities in access to assets and resources. effective responses that address the myriad causes of This approach helps de�ne roles and responsibilities vulnerability and ultimately support the wider sus- towards one another and towards the planet and must tainable development agenda. be integrated from the local to the global scale. Many of the recommendations in this synthesis report Evidence generated from the social component of the make sense in the absence of climate change. Yet cli- EACC study helps to shape our diagnosis of climate mate change adds an additional layer of complexity to change; alters our understanding of vulnerability and this challenge. The prevailing context of uncertainty informs our perception of what adaptation means and the irreversibility of impacts on human and nat- for poor and vulnerable populations. This study pro- ural systems make building resilience and achieving vides an important complementary perspective to the sustainable development more urgent than ever. A sector-based and global analyses of the EACC study. no-regrets approach to development targeted at the Integrating a social perspective into national efforts poor and most vulnerable is the only viable course. to design adaptation strategies will help to ensure that development interventions target poor and dis- To pursue this approach, the involvement of the full advantaged groups and socio-ecological resilience to range of stakeholders from communities, civil society, climate risk is achieved. 60 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Annex One ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 61 Bangladesh Study Overview Projected Climate Change Impacts the short term, glacial melt is likely to increase sea- sonal river flooding in the Ganges and Padma basins As a low-lying, deltaic country with a large and during the spring and monsoon months. In the long highly dense population, Bangladesh is extremely term, however, the shrinking Himalayan glaciers will vulnerable to climate change. Key climate impacts lead to overall basin water scarcity (Pender 2008). for the country include sea level rise, cyclones, storm surge, flooding, land erosion, waterlogging, and salin- Riverine flooding and related river bank erosion has ity intrusion in soil and water. With regard to sea level extreme negative impacts for the 5% of the Bangla- rise, Bangladesh has been ranked as the third most desh population (6.5 million people) who live on the vulnerable country in the world in terms of number of 7,200 square kilometers of char riverine islands. The people affected. By 2050, assuming a sea level rise of char dwellers are dependent on agriculture, and face 27 cm, around 33 million people would be affected by lack of basic services and access to good governance flooding (Pender 2008). A 1m rise in sea level would mechanisms. More powerful cyclones and rising sea inundate a full 18% of the total land in Bangladesh. levels also affect coastal erosion. It is estimated that Sea level rise reduces river gradients causing backwa- with climate change, more than 5,800 hectares of land ter effects that induce drainage congestion. It would could be lost by 2030 (with nearly 12,000 by 2075), also induce saline water “overtopping� of flood pro- together with 13,750 tons of food grain production tection coastal embankments, causing further saline lost by 2030 and 252,000 tons by 2075. Drought is also intrusion and damage to agriculture and freshwater predicted for some parts of the country due increas- sources (Ahmed 2006). ing evapo-transpiration from higher temperatures, diminished winter rains, and increasing rainfall vari- Extreme events such as cyclones and floods are projected ability across the country. Both rabi and kharif season to increase in Bangladesh due to climate change. The crops would be affected by this drought, especially in predicted increase in rainfall, changes in rainfall tim- the northwest, north-central and southwest regions ing, and melting of Himalayan glaciers will increase (Rahman et al. 2007). the frequency, duration and extent of flooding. Large populations living in environmentally fragile coastal Overview of Hotspots areas, dependent on natural resource-based liveli- hoods and vulnerable to regular flash and riverine As discussed above, Bangladesh is exposed to a wide floods, will thus become even more vulnerable. In variety of climate change impacts and induced hazards 62 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT including drought, river floods, flash floods, cyclones north-west; iii. several upazilas fringing the major and tidal surges, salinity intrusion, water-logging and rivers, particularly along the Jamuna River; and iv. drainage congestion. Each of the selected hotspots was several of the south-eastern upazilas, including the chosen on the basis of its representing a key hazard in Chittagong Hill Tract. The hotpots selected exhibit order to better understand the impact on the community. variation in socio-economic development, resource While each ‘hotspot’ represents a main hazard, many availability and exposure to natural hazards. areas are in fact exposed to multiple hazards which rein- force negative shocks. Further, the country has uneven socio-economic development, leading to differentiated Empirical Findings patterns of vulnerability to climate change. Vulnerability to Climate Change Taking these hazards into account, a total of eight study sites or ‘hotspots’ were selected (see Figure 4). In Vulnerability was found to stem from exposure factors this study, the term ‘hotspots’ refers to those regions such as physical location and hazard-proneness (as in already vulnerable to climate variability and likely the riverine char islands); sensitivity factors such as to suffer substantial impacts in future from climate economic geography and levels of regional develop- change, with poverty and vulnerability characteristics ment; socio-economic status and degree of economic also present. The sites shown are large areas (dis- “power� (e.g., in value chains), and social differentia- tricts). Actual �eldwork was conducted in particular tion including gender. Socio-economic factors exac- villages or urban slums (see Table 6). erbating sensitivity at the household level included: landlessness, illiteracy of adults and children, tempo- Site Selection Rationale rary migration status, large family size, and female- headed household status. At the community level, Different parts of the country are exposed to various these included latent social conflict and lack of politi- types and magnitudes of climate hazards. Further, cal voice (e.g., urban in-migrants). pockets of high poverty incidence generally coincide with ecologically poor areas of Bangladesh: i. low- Social capital and organizational presence are impor- lying depression area, called haor, in the north-east; tant aspects of household and area adaptive capac- ii. drought-prone area on relatively higher land in the ity. Urban respondents expressed more concern than TABLE 6 EIGHT HOTSPOTS SELECTED FOR BANGLADESH STUDY HOTSPOT (REF. HAZARDS) REGION DISTRICT UPAZILA UNION VILLAGE Drought-prone NW Naogaon Porsha Nitpur Sadar Nitpur Salinity-prone SW Satkhira Assasuni Protapnagar Sonatankathi Cyclone-prone SW Bagerhat Shorankhola Southkhali Gabtala River Flood- prone NW Sirajganj Kazipur Natuar Para Ghora Gacha Flash Flood-prone NE Sunamganj Tahirpur Dakshin Sreepur Janjail Waterlogging-prone SW Jessore Keshobpur Safalakathi Kalicharanpur Tidal Flood-prone SE Cox’s Bazaar Cox’s Bazaar Sadar Khurushkul Rastarpar Drainage congestion-prone Dhaka Dhaka Mohammedpur Adabor Comfort House ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 63 rural residents about leaving assets unattended during and delivering cyclone warnings) but no presence in floods, suggesting that urban households may take saline Satkhira district that also suffered, secondarily, dangerous risks (i.e., not evacuating) due to a height- from cyclones. Here, failure to consider the role of ened sense of social insecurity. Fieldwork revealed overlapping hazards meant that neither disaster that NGO presence was highly unequally distributed, response infrastructure, nor the social learning that with an overwhelming presence in cyclone-prone accompanied it, as in Bagerhat were present in the Bagerhat district (rebuilding houses, providing radios saline area. Flash Flood River Floods Drought Drainage Conges on (Urban) Waterlogging Salinity Cyclones Cyclones & Tidal Floods L I ST O F SI T ES 64 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Area asset status, including infrastructure: Poor com- munication and transport facilities reduce people’s mobility and livelihood options as seen in the north- east region, where lack of road infrastructure also left villages isolated and suffering from underinvestment by government and NGOs. In Cox’s Bazaar, poor communication meant that people could not travel to safe shelter easily and relief materials did not arrive in time. Further, just as asset depletion can lead to chronic poverty at the household level, at the area level too repeated hazard events can reduce a region’s adaptive capacity. For example, rising water levels can completely sever road links for months at a time, with consequent impacts on regional growth. Diversi�ed structure of the regional economy is important in providing a base for effective adaptation. For exam- ple tourist areas offer a broader range of livelihood opportunities for area households than those solely reliant on agriculture, thereby reducing vulnerability to climate impacts. Climatic shocks and the effects of multiple hazards: Cli- mate hazards subject households to economic shocks. Natural disasters were mentioned by more than half of all respondents in Bangladesh as the reason for sudden loss of household income, while illness or death of family members named by only 12 percent of households. It is important to consider the tem- poral scale of climate-related shocks i.e., rapid-onset (such as cyclones) or slow-onset (e.g., floods and waterlogging), and also their frequency. Multiple extreme events arriving one after another do not allow households sufficient time to recover their earlier asset base. Further, hotspots investigated were found to be doubly- or triply-exposed to hazards. For instance, river bank erosion leads to agricultural land loss in cyclone-prone areas, further reducing household ability to cope with frequent disasters. The compound effect of these events was often enough to tip households into chronic poverty status. None of the hotspots had particularly strong adaptive capacity given their poor asset bases that prevented livelihood diversi�cation in times of crisis. Long-term adap- tation planning (beyond short and medium-term ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 65 measures as changing crop types and planting dates) n Agriculture (development of salt-tolerant and includes the need for economy-wide diversi�cation, high-yield varieties; crop insurance); as well as signi�cant improvements in human capital n Fisheries (storm-resistant boats; conflict resolu- levels to allow households to take advantage of risk- tion between shrimp and rice farmers); prevention strategies at household and area levels. n Governance (especially access to social services for urban poor) and; n Disaster Risk Management that is gender- Preferred Adaptation Options Identi�ed responsive (e.g., for separate rooms for women through PSD Workshops in cyclone shelters; mini-shelters closer to vil- lages; use of female voices in early warning Participants in local and national PSD workshops announcements; and mobile medical teams in identi�ed similar adaptation preferences (e.g., in char areas). disaster risk management, �sheries support, agricul- ture, and governance arenas). However, local work- Integration of Results in Overall EACC shop participants particularly emphasized the need Country Study for social protection, livelihoods diversi�cation and gender-speci�c support. Conclusions from the overall EACC-Bangladesh country study highlighted the high incidence of pov- Overall, preferred adaptation options were identi�ed erty in those parts of the country most vulnerable to in: climate hazards, and recommended a scaling-up of n Environmental Management (mangrove pres- investments for poverty reduction (including high- ervation; afforestation; coastal greenbelts; waste yielding crop varieties, protective infrastructure, management); and disaster management). Governance and social n Water Resource Management (drainage; rain- protection issues raised in the social study featured water harvesting; drinking water provision, and less prominently in the overall report, which empha- flood control); sized for urban populations in particular a balance n Infrastructure (roads; cyclone shelters); between government support and “strategic reloca- n Livelihood Diversi�cation; tion� (the latter was not raised in PSD consultations). n Social Protection (especially for �shers during Transboundary water resource management was cyclone season); highlighted in the overall report, but not raised by n Education; respondents in the social study. 66 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Annex Two ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 67 Bolivia Study Overview Projected Climate Change Impacts deserti�cation, with areas of desert becoming larger and rivers and catchment areas drying up. This is in Climate change models1 for Bolivia indicate that the context of large-scale drought vulnerability for the country will be hotter in the coming years, with the country as a whole, given that only 15% of agri- average temperatures rising by 0.8-3.9°C over the cultural land is irrigated. The majority of cultivated next 100 years2 . Rainfall projections are less certain areas thus rely on rainfall, which in most parts of and at times contradictory. Some scenarios predict the country is only seasonal (i.e., present for four an increase while others suggest less rainfall. Nev- months of the year). Further, the Amazon region of ertheless, all the scenarios appear to agree that the Bolivia is itself already experiencing a higher inci- rainy season will be shorter and more intense. Cli- dence of drought, as well as increased frequency and mate change is already apparent throughout most of intensity of flooding during the rainy season. the country. Overview of Hotspots According to the National Climate Change Program (PNCC), the Andean glaciers that supply drinking Bolivia can be divided into four separate agro-ecolog- water and energy for major cities like La Paz and El ical macro-regions: Alto are experiencing rapid melting. EACC climate models developed under other components show n Highlands: At a height of over 3500 meters above that average temperatures are increasing. The rainfall sea level the highlands the (high plateau or ‘Alti- pattern has undergone changes, with the rainy sea- plano’ and the Andes mountain chain) contain son getting shorter but more stormy. As a result, the municipalities such as La Paz, Oruro, Potosí and Altiplano (high plateau), the inter-Andean valleys Cochabamba. The climate is generally cold and and the Chaco which host three-quarters of Boliv- dry. This macro-region can be further divided into ia’s population, are experiencing a rapid process of northern and southern regions, with the former subject to the highest humidity. 1 Here we refer to the study undertaken by the PNCC in which a com- parative analysis was done of the climatic models HADCM2, HKHI, n Valleys: Located in the foothills of the eastern GISSEQ, MAGICC y SCENGEN, employing three CO2 emission scenarios: IS92a, IS92e, IS92c. The results were applied in a vulnerability mountains, the height of the inter-Andean val- study of Bolivia´s main ecosystems. See PNCC, Escenarios climáticos, leys ranges from 1000-3500m above sea level. 2007. 2 IS92a scenario The valleys fall within the departments of La 68 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT TABLE 7 SITES SELECTED FOR BOLIVIA STUDY MUNICIPALITY PROVINCE DEPARTMENT LANGUAGE MACRO-REGION 1 Tarvita (Villa Orias) Azurduy Chuquisaca Quechua Valleys 2 Villa Vaca Guzman Luis Calvo Chuquisaca Spanish Chaco 3 Calacoto Pacajes La Paz Aymara Altiplano 4 Pucarani Los Andes La Paz Aymara Altiplano 5 Sicaya Capinota Cochabamba Quechua Valleys 6 Carangas Curahuara Sajama Oruro Aymara-Spanish Altiplano 7 Vitichi Nor Chichas Potosi Quechua Valleys 8 Porco Antonio Quijarro Potosi Quechua-Spanish Altiplano 9 El Puente Mendez Tarija Spanish Valleys (Tomayapo) 10 Yapacaní Ichilo Santa Cruz Quechua-Spanish Plains 11 Charagua Cordillera Santa Cruz Spanish-Other Chaco 12 Saipina Manuel M. Gentleman Santa Cruz Spanish Valleys 13 San Ignacio Moxos Beni Spanish Plains 14 San Pedro Manuripi Pando Spanish Plains Sample by department: Chuquisaca (2 municipalities), Santa Cruz (3 municipalities), La Paz (2 municipalities), Potosi (1 municipality), Cochabamba (1 municipality), Oruro (1 municipality), Tarija (1 municipality), Beni (1 municipality), Pando (1 municipality). Paz, Cochabamba, Potosí, Chuquisaca, Tarija and systems, poverty indicators, and altitude. There Santa Cruz. The climate is temperate. Again, this were 4 sites from the Altiplano, 5 from the Valleys; area can be divided into two regions: the ‘dry’ val- 2 from Chaco region; and 3 from the Plains area leys and the more humid Yungas. (see Figure 5). The sites are listed in Table 7. n The Chaco: Located in the southeast. This area - Site Selection Rationale with a hot, dry climate - is less than 1000m above sea level and contains the departments of Tarija, Sites were selected to cover all of the macro-regions, Chuquisaca and Santa Cruz. with a focus on those areas most vulnerable to climate change. Vulnerability to climate change was consid- n The Plains (llanos): In the northeast, lying at under ered not only in terms of physical exposure but also in 1000m height and with a warm, humid climate, terms of adaptive capacity, that is, areas that were low contain the departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, in response capacity, education, and economic devel- Pando and parts of La Paz and Cochabamba opment was selected. In addition, sites were selected departments. to cover a range of livelihood systems, ethnic groups, levels of population density, and poverty levels. In Fourteen municipalities were selected for the study addition, sites were purposively sampled that would to cover the four agro-ecological macro-regions of cover areas most exposed to drought risks. At least country, and also to represent diversity in livelihood two sites exposed to flood risks were included. ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 69 Urban-rural: The study focused on Bolivia´s rural population, and the most vulnerable groups i.e., the Empirical Findings indigenous campesinos in particular as these groups are highly vulnerable to climate change. It is rec- Vulnerability to Climate Change ommended that a separate study be dedicated to Bolivian cities who are also vulnerable, due to melt- The populations most vulnerable to climate change ing of glaciers that provide water for water supply, are the poorest groups who generally reside in dry agricultural production for urban good supply, and zones (central and southern Altiplano, valleys and which in the case of cities near large rivers are also plains), and along riverbeds in lowland areas. Their vulnerable to floods during the rainy season. particular sensitivity to climate change comes from physical location and the climate-sensitive resource dependency of their livelihoods which are based on rain-fed agriculture, small-scale livestock farming, forest harvesting, hunting and �shing, and seasonal 70 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT labor.3 Salient differences in socioeconomic status are mostly explained by ownership of livestock and arable land.4 The region with the greatest inequality is the Plains macro-region, where indigenous and peasant communities live side-by-side with agro-industry, large-scale cattle breeders and timber industries. Indigenous groups face particular sensitivity due to social exclusion. Slightly better-off households engage in a combina- tion of rain-fed and irrigated agriculture; livestock farming; non-agriculture work; and temporary migration. Those households most resilient to climate change have livelihood strategies based on irrigated agriculture; semi-enclosed livestock production or large-scale livestock farming; dairy farming; and ser- vice sector employment. The most vulnerable house- holds due to sensitivity factors of socio-economic status are those with elderly, disabled or young mem- bers, as well as female-headed households. Past Adaptation and Coping Practices Households considered past coping strategies in the event of a flood, drought, hailstorm and/or frost. Half of the 70 households interviewed did not engage in new activities to manage the extreme event. The remaining 50 percent of households interviewed engaged in diverse adaptation practices (see Figure 6). Thirty-six percent engaged in temporary migration. Seventeen percent of households interviewed devel- oped new livelihood activities such as production of artisan goods, or engaged in petty trade or daily labor as part of adaptation. Twenty-�ve percent of families reverted to ancient indigenous practices including 3 Focus group discussions, community workshops, expert interviews and household interviews were conducted. Poverty levels of 70 interviewed households were classi�ed based on indicators such as land tenure, livestock holdings, family prestige, children’s occupation, and type of housing. 4 In the study areas, all of the families are considered poor, according to the de�nition of poverty from the National Institute of Statistics. ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 71 rituals to call for rain, creating smoke to combat frosts, and lighting �reworks to combat hailstorms. Adaptation Preferences Arising from Community Consultations The adaptation measures prioritized by the commu- nities reflected their past experiences dealing with climate hazards, own cultural criteria and considered economic values. The preferred measures included: water management; infrastructure; improving live- stock farming; improving agriculture practice; better environmental management; training and capac- ity building; credit and �nance; transformation and employment. Communities in the Altiplano and Val- leys prioritized adaptation measures in water manage- ment, followed by improved agricultural and livestock practices. They viewed drought as the main threat to diversi�cation of livelihood systems threatened by their livelihoods. In contrast, communities from the climate change. Chaco and Plains regions asserted that improved agricultural practices were a priority for their region, Integration of Results in Overall EACC and considered water management measures to be of Country Study secondary importance. The Bolivia country report for EACC has main- Complementary investments in both hard (i.e., new streamed the conclusions from the social component infrastructure) and soft (i.e., safety nets, capacity throughout its text. Key conclusions include the building, knowledge sharing) adaptation options will importance of: i. decentralized approaches to adap- be vital to meet the needs of the most vulnerable. tation planning, and use of indigenous knowledge; Improving extension services and increasing access to ii. combining hard and soft adaptation measures as markets, for example, will be needed to complement part of country responses to climate change; and iii. the development of hard adaptation measures such addressing the place-speci�c vulnerabilities of rural as the construction of infrastructure. Local govern- and indigenous peoples who are dependent on agri- ment authorities favored investment in discrete, hard culture and highly vulnerable to predicted increases in measures, while community members preferred more water scarcity - in order to reduce the negative distri- comprehensive strategies that support enhanced butional consequences of climate change for Bolivia. 72 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Annex Three ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 73 Ethiopia Study Overview Projected Climate Change Impacts for changes in temperature and rainfall suggest the following likely effects over the next 50 years (2010- Climate change represents a profound threat to the 2039): i) A decrease in rainfall over the northern parts livelihoods of the poor and other households in rural of Africa; ii) An increase in rainfall on the western and urban Ethiopia. The country is highly vulnerable part of the continent in normally dry months. On the to climate change, with increasing extremes of both other hand, East Africa has displayed a stable rainfall drought and flood predicted. Ethiopia’s population is regime. For instance, the drier areas of eastern and also heavily rural and dependent on natural resource- South Eastern Ethiopia are shown to exhibit a change based livelihoods, further exacerbating vulnerability. in mean precipitation of 0-0.25 mm/day. However, Land and water management are central concerns. these general trends may include hidden variations Signi�cant regional differences in production systems, within the regions. Elasha et al. (2006) report that in rates of urbanization, and road connectivity, among relation to extreme events results of the Global Circu- other factors, place speci�c locales in different posi- lation models, in general terms the climate in Africa tions of vulnerability to climate change. will become more variable with climate change. The exact nature of the changes in extreme events is still Climate change in Ethiopia is projected to increase debatable, but there is general consensus that extreme the frequency of drought and flood. Although climate events will increase and may get worse. models vary, there is general agreement that Ethio- pia will see greater climate variability and extreme Key impacts and vulnerabilities to future climate events. Reports by the National Metrological Agency change include the impact on water availability. (NMA) show that rainfall will decline in some parts Along with other Horn and Northern African coun- of the country, but increase in other places. Baseline tries, Ethiopia is one of the countries that will face climate data prepared for the NAPA shows that there freshwater scarcity by 2025. The NAPA concludes has been a warming trend in the annual minimum that current climate variability is already imposing temperature over the past 55 years. Temperature has a signi�cant challenge to the country by affecting been increasing by about 0.37 degrees Celsius every food security, water and energy supply, poverty reduc- ten years. Scenarios performed for desert areas show tion and sustainable development efforts, as well as great variation across Africa for the period 2071- by causing natural resource degradation and natural 2100 relative to the period 1961–1990 (IPCC 3rd disasters. Climate hazards, mainly rainfall short- Synthesis Report, 2001). Other regional predictions age and drought, have caused instability in national 74 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT economic performance. The NAPA document identi- South Wollo zone (both highland and lowland sites in �ed major adverse impacts of climate variability in Kalu), and both the PSNP and Pastoral Community Ethiopia, including: i. food insecurity from drought Development Program (PCDP) in Fantalle woreda and flood incidence; ii. disease outbreak such as of Oromia Region, which is a lowland pastoralist malaria, dengue fever, water borne diseases (such as area. Local PSD workshops were conducted in these cholera, dysentery) from floods and respiratory dis- woredas, as well as Kindo-Koysha woreda in the mid- eases associated with droughts; iii. damage to land highland perennial and root crops zone. With Ethio- from heavy rainfall; and iv. damage to communica- pia’s long experience of drought, areas of the country tion, road and other infrastructure from floods. have already been designated as having different levels of drought probability. Much of the low land areas in Overview of Hotspots the East, Southeast, and Northeast parts of the coun- try are areas of high drought probability. The �eld sites The team created a typology of vulnerable zones for the selected fall within the high and medium drought entire country. These zones, eight in total, represented probability zones. In total, the 7 �eld sites (i.e., 6 kebelle a range of agro-ecological, climate hazard, farming villages, as well as Kindo-Koysha) across three wore- system, and social scenarios, namely: i. Highland belg das represent: i. Highland belg zone with cereal and zone with cereal and livestock; ii. Highland zone with livestock; ii. Lowland pastoral/ agro-pastoral zone; and cereal, livestock and degraded soils; iii. Lowland pas- iii. Mid-Highland Perennial and root crops zones (see toral/agro-pastoral zone; iv. Lowland—mixed farming Table 9). Selection of villages from these woredas was and degraded soils zone; v. Midland irrigable zone; vi. done with the woreda administrations and the PSNP Midland high agricultural potential; vii. Mid Highland and PCDP programs. The kebelle selected for the sur- Perennial and roots crops zones; and viii. Urban zone. vey work are given in Table 8. From these zones, sites were selected to reflect vulner- Site Selection Rationale ability to drought, diverse production systems (agri- culture, agro-pastoral, and pastoralist systems), and Sites were selected to represent drought vulnerability, a areas where Government of Ethiopia / World Bank- range of production systems, and also to overlap with supported projects were ongoing. Projects represented Government of Ethiopia/ World Bank project areas included the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) for Productive Safety Nets Program and Pastoralist in Kalu woreda (district) in the Amhara region in Community Development Project. Budget constraints TABLE 8 KEBELLE (VILLAGES) SELECTED FOR FIELD SURVEY IN ETHIOPIA DISTANCE TO KEBELLE WOREDA REGION- ZONE ALTITUDE POPULATION SIZE NEAREST TOWN 1 Haro Kersa Fantalle Oromia 800 m 904 30-35 km (North Shoa) 2 Gola Fantalle Oromia 800 m 2,213 15 km 3 Choresa Kalu Amhara (South Wollo) 1,450-2,000 m 5,829 10 km 4 Birko Debele Kalu Amhara 1,450-2,000 m 8,571 20 km 5 Keteteya Kalu Amhara 2,000-2,600 m 9,338 45 km 6 Hardibo Kalu Amhara 2,000-2,600 m 7,900 35 km ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 75 Kalu woreda, South Wollo Fantalle woreda, Eastern Shoa Kindo-Koysha woreda, Wolita allowed for only six sites for survey work within a Physical location and hazard proneness greatly affect de�ned area. PSD sites were selected to coincide with household sensitivity to climate change, as in the those where the survey was undertaken (i.e., in Kalu drought-prone lowlands which are chronically and Fantalle, as well as a third site in Kindo-Koysha). exposed to low rainfall. Thus vulnerability to climate change stems in part from households’ location in degraded and threatened environments. Households Empirical Findings surveyed already face signi�cant deprivation, with 84 per cent reporting food shortages during part of Vulnerability to Climate Change the year. Governance and political economy issues were also identi�ed as aspects of sensitivity: these included Vulnerability was found to stem from exposure factors non-transparent policy regimes, such as those that such as physical location/ hazard-proneness; as well have favored external investment and park develop- as sensitivity factors including economic geography/ ment e.g., in pastoralist areas of lowland Ethiopia. regional development levels; socio-economic status including high dependency ratios in households and Vulnerable groups with high sensitivity to climate low education; and social differentiation variables change included asset-poor households with very including ethnic and migrant status, and gender. limited means of coping with climate hazards, the 76 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT TABLE 9 IDENTIFIED VULNERABILITY ZONES IN ETHIOPIA (FINAL STUDY SITES IN BOLD) REGION VULNERABLE AGRO-ECOLOGY PROPOSED (ADMIN CLIMATE SOCIAL VULNERABILITY; GOE/ WB ZONE (MOARD ZONES) WOREDA ZONE) HAZARDS FARMING SYSTEM OTHER FEATURES PROJECTS 1. Highland, belg Cool moist mid Wuchale Oromia Drought Mixed farming; belg Failure of belg; shortage of fod- PSNP zone, cereal and highland (M2) (North crop in highland areas der and water; water logging livestock Shoa) problem in rainy season Kalu Amhara Drought Mixed farming Harvest failure, land PSNP (South degradation, history of Wollo) food aid 2. Highland, Tepid sub-humid Sodo-Zuria SNNPR Poor agric. Mixed farming, good Land degradation scarcity, food PSNP cereal and mid highland (Gurage) enset culture insecurity; labor migration livestock, (SH2) degraded soils Tepid sub-moist Wukro Tigray Drought Mixed crop and Droughts; land degradation; PSNP mid highland (East livestock farming harvest failure; poor agric. (SM1) Tigray) 3. Low land Warm moist Dire/ Oromia Drought Pastoralism and agro- Drought, feed, water shortage; PCDP pastoral/ lowland (M1) Yabello (Borena) pastoralism livestock death; food insecu- agro-pastoral rity; land tenure Warm semi-arid Kuraz SNNPR Flood Pastoralism; some Underdeveloped; Vulnerable PCDP lowland (SA1) (South (Omo) flood recession conditions; Omo) cultivation Warm arid lowland West Imi Somalie Flood , Pastoralism; cropping Flood disasters; drought and — (A1) drought famine Warm sub-moist Fantalle Oromia Drought Pastoral/ agro- Drought; lost land to comm. PSNP lowland (SM2) (East Shoa) pastoralism; camel estates, conflict (highlanders; migration to highlands Afar pastoralists) Warm arid lowland Amibara/ Afar Floods Pastoralists; agro- Poor local dev. ; conflicts with PSNP; (A1) (Zone 3) (Awash), pastoralists Issa community PCDP Drought 4. Lowland, Warm humid low Konso SNNPR Drought; Mixed farming Severe land shortage; land Highest mixed farming, land (H1) (Konso land degradation; poor agic; Good number degraded soils Special) degrade adaptation via SWC (FAO of PSNP award) clients Tepid semi-arid Adami Tullu Oromia Drought, Mixed dry land farming Drought; land degradation; PSNP lowland (SA2) (East Shoa) land food insecurity; Lake Zeway degraded depleting; charcoal production 5. Mid land, Tepid moist mid Libo Amhara Flood Some flood recession Flood; Crop loss malaria Irrigation irrigable highland (M1) kemkem (South agriculture; small scale project Gonder) irrig. 6. Mid land, high Tepid moist mid Ilu/ Sebeta Oromia Flood, Mixed farming; flood High population; scarce land, — agric. potential highland (M2) Hawass (West malaria recession pulse cash malaria, migration to escape Shoa) crops, flood 7. Perennial and Tepid moist mid Kindo- SNNPR Drought; Mixed farming; live- Land degradation; crop PSNP roots crops highland (M2) Koysha (Wolita) land stock in lowlands failures; food insecurity degradation 8. Urban Tepid moist mid Harar town Harari Water Urban economy; Town in a mountain; water — highland (M2) ( Regional shortage cash crops scarcity for urban uses; Lake capital) Alemaya dry Warm arid low Dire-Dawa Dire-Dawa Flood in Urban economy; semi- Big flood disaster in 2006; PSNP land (A1) town (Admin town; rural pastoral rural areas. frequent rural droughts (rural) capital) drought ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 77 expanding group of rural landless who lack income and education, and land tenure. PSD adaptation opportunities, the urban poor living in flood-prone options identi�ed through the workshops that were areas of cities, and the elderly and the sick due to their not present in the NAPA included urban planning limited adaptive capacity. In terms of adaptive capac- and market development, as well as education. ity, lack of grievance or conflict resolution mecha- nisms was found to harm potential for adaptation Speci�cally, the three local PSD workshops in highland, and exacerbate local conflicts around access to water midland and lowland areas identi�ed: soil and forest and grazing lands for livestock. However, outreach of rehabilitation, irrigation and water harvesting, improved agricultural extension agencies in �eld site villages in agricultural techniques and drought-resistant varieties, highland, midland, and lowland areas surveyed was education, and land use rights for pastoralists as adap- high however, suggesting the importance of building tation preferences. Regional development and the need upon networks of existing public service providers for structural shifts toward service and industry sectors when planning for adaptation responses. to improve employment outcomes were also raised as issues. At the national level, similar options were iden- Social capital is an important aspect of adaptive capacity ti�ed, along with a focus on early warning systems and of both households and areas. For example, Afar pasto- flood control measures, agricultural technology, �nance ralists’ mobility has been restricted in Fantalle district in and market development, renewable energy, and urban Oromia region of eastern Ethiopia, leading to recurrent planning. Between local and national levels, there were conflicts with neighboring agricultural communities many overlaps in terms of participants’ preferences for (including in-migrant highlanders) over resource access adaptation, though capacity-building and social pro- and land rights. The violence in the area around these tection were additionally revealed through discussions issues was presented as an equally signi�cant threat to at the local level. pastoralist livelihoods as physical exposure factors of recurrent droughts, erratic rainfall, and floods. Social Integration of Results in Overall EACC capital levels also help determine household resilience Country Study to climate change. In Ethiopia, 52 per cent of large farmers accessed informal village social assistance insti- Key conclusions from modeling exercises in the tutions, compared to an average for all income groups overall EACC country study in Ethiopia echo some of 34 per cent. This demonstrates the likely inequi- of the main concerns raised by local stakeholders in ties in community social protection mechanisms and PSD workshops. These include the importance of the importance of supporting public social protection investments in: i. road connectivity to reduce regional transfers with transparent targeting processes, such as disparities and isolation and improve market integra- the Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP). tion; ii. improved agricultural productivity including agricultural extension, on-farm technology; improved Preferred Adaptation Options Identi�ed seeds and other inputs; and weather forecasting; and through PSD Workshops iii. non-farm diversi�cation for more resilient rural income and livelihoods. In addition, the EACC The PSD workshops conducted at local and national Ethiopia team is now planning economic model- levels revealed broad support for NAPA and related ing of the livestock and pastoralist economy which climate strategy priorities in-country, in such areas was not undertaken in the �rst phase and has been as agriculture and water resources management, land requested by Government of Ethiopia. The livestock management, roads, and early warning systems. How- sector proved through the PSD and �eldwork investi- ever, they also revealed stakeholder preferences for gations to be of prime importance to poor households investments in governance, social protection, training and regions in Ethiopia. 78 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Annex Four ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 79 Ghana Study Overview Projected Climate Change Impacts geographic regions. Rainfall variability poses the most serious challenge in all regions except the Three major physical impacts of climate change Rainforest zone, with impacts on all sectors of the are distinguishable for Ghana, namely temperature economy. The Coastal Savannah is the most vulner- change, change in rainfall and sea level rise. Based on able to sea erosion and inundations. Flooding has climate models, it is expected that mean daily tem- also been severe along the sprawling urban cities and peratures will increase by 2.5°-3.2 °C by 2100, while towns of coastal Ghana, due to increasing frequency annual rainfall totals will decrease by 9-27 per cent of storm activities and poor urban planning. Ris- by 2100, depending on geographic location (Minia ing sea levels will impact the coastal zone through 2004). Using an assumed global sea level rise of 1m shoreline recession, increased flood frequency prob- by 2100, a large part of the eastern coast of Ghana abilities, inundation of coastal lands and wetlands, would be inundated, with coastal erosion and saltwa- and salinization of surface and ground water (EPA ter intrusion into surface and groundwater sources 2000). Estimated recession due to sea level rise of 1 also increasing. In general, the rainfall reductions m varies between 250 m and 300 m, which translates seen in the transitional and savannah zones in the to land loss of between 37 km2 to 45 km2. Indigenous north are minimal, compared to those in the forest �shing communities will be most affected in terms and coastal zones. Such changes are likely to have sig- of lost physical assets and livelihoods. Both drought ni�cant impacts on the rainfed agriculture prevailing and floods affect incidence of diseases and food in the country. There is a shift in the rainfall regime security. Increased heat stress and drought-related in Ghana towards a longer dry season and vanish- deaths in both humans and livestock are already ing short dry spell (Owusu, Waylen et al. 2008). being experienced in the extreme north of the coun- The short dry spell has become wetter in the second try. Changes are also expected in the range of some period while the wet September/ October months are infectious disease vectors. Flooding will increase the becoming drier. This has meant diminished rainfall range of the mosquito, leading to different malarial towards the end of the rainy season, and a prolonged strains, and the incidence of parasitic infections dry season, with effects of increased evaporation, and may increase. Poverty is highly spatial in Ghana, reduction in lake levels. with poverty concentrated in rural areas especially in the northern savannah. Climate is inter-related The impacts of these trends on the country can with poverty levels, given the high dependence of a be understood with reference to different socio- majority of the population on agriculture. 80 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Overview of Hotspots Semi-Deciduous Forest and Rainforest into one zone, namely, Forest zone. Traditionally, Ghana has been divided into six agro-ecological zones, namely, Guinea Savannah, The districts selected for �eldwork were chosen based Sudan Savannah, Forest-Savannah or Transition on a literature review, and on knowledge of cases zone, Semi-Deciduous Forest, Rainforest, and that would explain the differential vulnerabilities and Coastal Savannah (see Figure 8). This study merges adaptation options across the country. Sites were also Guinea Savannah and Sudan Savannah into one selected with reference to ongoing NGO and donor zone, known as Savannah zone. Also, we merge initiatives in the area. They are not representative of S U D AN SAVANNA GUI NE A SAVANNA T RANSI T I ONAL Z ONE S E M I - D E C I D U OUS FORE ST A NNA SAV S TAL COA RAIN FOREST ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 81 entire ecological zones are these zones have micro- dry season from November to February-March. ecological, economic, cultural, and political differences. The annual rainfall record is distributed throughout The selected research sites are presented in Table 10. the year with a mean monthly rainfall of 250 mm. Gonukrom largely consists of persons who belong Forest Zone: Gonukrom and Kamaso: The rainfall dis- to the Wassa ethnic group while Kamaso is purely tribution pattern in the forest is bi-modal from April a migrant/settler community composed of migrants to July and September to November. There is a main from different parts of the country. Both communities TABLE 10 SITES SELECTED FOR STUDY IN GHANA SELECTED SITES FEATURES CLIMATE VULNERABILITES EXISTING INITIATIVES Coastal Savannah Zone Shows livelihood pro�les of �sher Dry climate with increasing Civic Response present, e.g., Site 1: Ada-Anyakpor, in the folks rainfall variability and hotter Radio Ada in Dangme East Dangbe-East (Ada) District Exempli�es the struggles of a coastal temperatures; Sea erosion and district, coastal zone Site 2: Nima in the Accra Met- community tidal flooding ropolitan Assembly (AMA) Hosts most of the urban poor in Prone to flooding; Increased One of the communities included Both sites in Greater Accra Accra risk of disease; Poverty and in 1995 Participatory Poverty Region Shows relationship between poor disaster response systems in Assessment urban planning and disaster risk place; Poor shelter provision and drainage systems Forest Zone Major cocoa growing area. New Decreasing rainfall will affect Among the communities of Site 3: Gonukrom in Wassa frontier for agricultural migrants cocoa production; High temps the IUCN’s Livelihoods and Amen� West (Asankragwa) Issues of land tenure, economic harm agriculture; Logging and Landscapes Initiative (REDD) and District policy and migration mining will reduce carbon sinks proposed under Site 4: Kamaso in Wassa Economic policy reducing WB’s Forest Carbon Partnership Amen� West (Asankragwa) forest cover Facility (FCPF) District Both in Western Region Transitional Zone Major food crop zone; Variations in rainfall and (EPA and National Development Site 5: Buoyem in Techiman Migrant receiving region temperature to affect produc- Planning Council with UNDP District Increasing environmental problems tion; Migration increases land piloting district-level planning for Site 6: Dzatakpo in Pru District Urban growth and alternative pressure; Poverty reduces CCA in Techiman District Both in the Brong Ahafo livelihoods adaptation Region Inland �shing community Effects of climate on Lake No existing initiative Shows livelihoods of �shermen and Volta; Decreasing �sh stocks �sh mongers and adaptation by �shing com- munities; Human capital and adaptable livelihoods Northern Savannah Fragile environment Highly variable weather and Among the communities in Site 7: Boayini (Guinea High poverty incidence; Female agriculture which CARE-Ghana is support- Savannah) in East Mamprusi outmigration to cities Environmental bankruptcy ing local-level adaptation to District in Northern Region Resilience of households climate variability and change in Site 8: Tetauku (Sudan Savan- Northern Ghana nah) in Bawku East District in Dry environment Highly variable weather and Included in 1995 WB Participa- the Upper East Region Highest poverty incidence in Ghana; agriculture; Environmental tory Poverty Assessment Agrarian economy; High out- bankruptcy; Sensitivity of Migration households 82 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT have a signi�cant population of migrants. Cocoa pro- this zone are �shing and farming in rural areas, while duction dominates the economy, leading to substan- the urban centers are integrated into the global econ- tial growth in this sub-sector. omy. Anyakpor community, located on the outskirts of Ada-Foah, is a typical coastal village with a popula- Transition Zone: Buoyem and Dzatakpo: The Transi- tion of about eight hundred people. The major ethnic tion zone is a major food crop zone, and a migrant- group is called Dangme. The main livelihood activities receiving region. The Transition zone experiences include �shing, food crop farming and �sh mongering. rainfall values between 1000 mm and 1500 mm Nima is an urban slum composed of mostly vulnerable adequate to support luxuriant vegetation. The migrants, with mixed livelihoods. major livelihood activity in Buoyem is food crop farming including maize and tomatoes, while in Dzatakpo �shing is the major livelihood activity Empirical Findings due to its location on the Pru river. Dzatakpo is largely dominated by Ewe migrants from Mar� Vulnerability to Climate Change and Anlo in the Volta Region and has an estimated population of 1000 persons. Buoyem, however is an Vulnerability was found to stem from exposure fac- Akan community with an estimated population of tors of physical geography; as well as sensitivity fac- over 5000 people. tors of economic geography/ regional development levels; governance; socio-economic status; and social Northern Savannah Zone: Boayini and Tetauku: The differentiation including migrant status and gender. northern savannah zone is predominantly a grassland Key socioeconomic groups vulnerable to climate agro-ecosystem with scattered shrubs and trees, with change include those dependent on natural resource- annual average rainfall of 1000 mm. The guinea savan- based livelihoods (such as smallholder farmers, artisa- nah portion occupies most of the Northern Region nal coastal and inland �shers), migrants, women, and and has better ecological conditions for farming than urban slum dwellers. the Sudan savannah. Boayini is located in the East Mamprusi District in the Northern region of Ghana, Physical location and hazard proneness greatly affect with total population of 1400. The tribes in the com- household vulnerability, as in the drought-prone munity include Tampulensi, Mamprusis, Bimobas, areas that are chronically exposed to low rainfall. Mosis and, Fulanis. Tetauku is also located in Bawku Economic Geography also shape adaptive capacity. For East District in the Upper East Region, with total example, the export-oriented path following by the population of 898. The community is dominated by national government has led to preferential invest- the Mamprusi tribe. ment in social services and economic infrastructure (including roads) in certain areas, meaning that the Coastal Savannah Zone: Anyakpor and Nima: The coastal Northern Savannah and Coastal rural locations now savannah zone occupies the entire east coast from the have lower adaptive capacity than the Forest and Central Region through the Greater Accra Region to Transitional zones which have received more state the Volta Region. It has the highest population con- intervention to date. Similarly, a key sensitivity fac- centration in Ghana with the Accra Metropolitan tor is governance. Livelihoods across Ghana, from Area, having a population density of 3,388 persons per forest-based resources, to �sheries, and agriculture, km2 (EPA 2000). It has the dry equatorial climate type. depend on clear and effective rule of law regarding Rainfall is of double maxima type. This belt receives the natural resource ownership and use rights, and more least amount of rain in Ghana and hence is the driest transparent use of resources. At the local level, for- region in the country. The main activities of people in mal and informal institutions structure the extent ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 83 of individual and group access to resources. Speci�- due to degraded natural resources and with the lack cally, the gendered nature of the inheritance system, of public services. National workshop participants local governance and customary law, and multiple looked for investments that would help local areas forms of land tenure systems can disproportionately achieve national goals, often through more expen- harm both women and migrants’ adaptive capacity sive adaptation investments that featured limited in many areas. Rural-rural migrants, for example, in inputs by local communities. Speci�c priorities at the Transitional zone, forgo income by not planting local level included a focus on: improved agricul- long gestation cash crops for lack of secure title in tural production and land management practices; receiving areas. managing migration; improving conditions for women; and improved governance and institu- Socio-economic Status: Poverty status (including low tional structures. physical, �nancial and human capital asset levels) leads to extreme vulnerability of households. Key Key pro-poor adaptation investments identi�ed vulnerable livelihood groups include smallholder by participants in local PSD workshops included farmers, rural migrant farm laborers, artisanal social security measures (safety nets); health services coastal and inland �shermen and �shmongers, and and awareness raising; urban social services and urban slum dwellers. infrastructure; early warning systems investments; improved tenure security; community-based land Preferred Adaptation Options Identi�ed administration systems; and skills training. through PSD Workshops Integration of Results in Overall EACC The PSD workshops conducted revealed broad sup- Country Study port for NAPA and related climate strategy priorities in-country, with additional stakeholder preferences The EACC-Social study recommendations on safety for investments in governance, social protection, land net provision, community-based natural resource tenure, and training and education. Key adaptation management, disaster preparedness, and improved investment preferences identi�ed by stakeholders in governance through enhanced decentralization have local and national PSD workshops includes social been incorporated in the EACC Ghana country protection measures, health and education services, report. The country report’s recommendations in the flood early warning system, land tenure reform, sup- areas of agriculture and coastal zone development port to �sheries sector, training for livelihoods diver- including �sheries largely echo those raised by PSD si�cation, agricultural research and extension, and stakeholders and respondents in �eldwork, while the integrated soil and water management. overall study also prioritized additional areas of roads, energy and regional integration (including trans- Local participants in the zonal workshops were boundary water management) that were not raised in more concerned with declining living standards the social investigation. 84 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Annex Five ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 85 Mozambique Study Overview Projected Climate Change Impacts flooding model). It is clear that temperature will rise. It also seems reasonably clear that most of the Mozambique’s vulnerability to climate change is country—with the exception of the south—will largely de�ned by its vulnerability to natural haz- experience an increase in average precipitation. For ards, namely droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones. floods, there is a great amount of uncertainty about Droughts have affected the largest number of people, the direction of change. Flood risk could increase in and caused the highest number of deaths. Floods, the future, or decrease. Sub-national trends are also while not typically affecting as much of the popula- difficult to specify. tion, typically cause loss of life, as well as great infra- structure loss. While usually resulting in less loss of The INGC study identi�ed the likely direction of life than droughts, floods are often the most visible changing risk levels due to tropical cyclones. Both hazard hitting the country. Storms, most promi- models and empirical data suggest a positive corre- nently tropical cyclones, are the third major hazard. lation between sea surface temperatures and cyclone These cause a great deal of infrastructure loss. Health intensity, but no obvious correlation between sea sur- epidemics are an indirect impact brought on by the face temperatures and cyclone frequency. Given that above hazards, due to deterioration of safe drinking sea surface temperatures are likely to increase, one can water, and spread of tropical disease vectors. be con�dent that there will be a shift towards stron- ger cyclones, but not necessarily any change in their With climate change, it is likely that southern overall frequency. However, since damages are related Mozambique will experience a trend towards drier to the cube of the wind speed, strong cyclones cause conditions, while the northern part of the country a much higher amount of damage than do weaker will become wetter. The 2009 study by the Insti- cyclones. Overall, then, one can expect more damage tuto Nacional de Gestao de Calamidades (INGC - due to cyclones in future. National Institute for Disaster Management) made projections for changes in temperature and average Overview of Hotspots precipitation as primary impacts (Asante et al 2009). As secondary impacts, the report projected changes Six vulnerability zones in Mozambique were in soil moisture availability (influenced by both tem- identified based on secondary literature, and pov- perature and precipitation), and flooding (influenced erty and disasters data on vulnerable populations. by precipitation and mapped out onto a statistical These were: 86 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT n Coastal urban areas, most importantly Maputo and Zambezi river valleys, are highly susceptible and Beira. This zone is marked by highly differen- to flood risk, and to flooding caused by tropical tial vulnerability across income groups, with large cyclones, but less so to droughts. The Buzi River peri-urban areas vulnerable to flooding from both region has also been extensively studied, as part rivers and the ocean. of German funded activities, and so there is no shortage of baseline data. n Non-urban coastal strip. This zone is marked by high vulnerability to coastal flooding and storm n Drought- prone inland areas (especially in south). surges from tropical cyclones, as well as threats of These areas are highly susceptible to drought: erosion. It is relatively food secure, with low rates years of adequate rainfall to support agriculture of poverty. are the exception, rather than the rule. The people are often dependent on remittances for survival. n Limpopo River valley districts upstream of Population densities are low. Xai Xai. This zone is unique in being highly exposed to two very different threats: river n Inland areas of higher agricultural productivity, flooding, and drought. It has relatively high including the highly productive and populated population density, and thus high numbers areas in Zambézia. These areas are perhaps the of poor people. Further, this region has been studied least vulnerable in Mozambique, facing adequate extensively and signi�cant baseline data is available. rainfall most years, and no extreme risks from flooding or tropical cyclones. They are somewhat n Other flood-prone river valleys (less susceptible heterogeneous in terms of poverty rates, and in to droughts). These zones, in particular in the Buzi food security. The highly productive regions in ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 87 88 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Zambézia stand out for their high population density, and relatively low vulnerability. Site Selection Rationale Sites were selected for �eldwork by mapping dis- tricts against major risks (floods, droughts) in order to identify hotspots representing the above six zones. Within each of these districts, �eldwork took place at multiple administrative posts to capture poten- tial variation within the district. Figure 9 shows the locations of these 16 sites. Empirical Findings Vulnerability to Climate Change Results suggest that rain-fed agriculture takes the hardest direct hit from climate hazards, particularly drought. Thus climate-sensitive resource dependency, coupled with a lack of infrastructure (irrigation) investment, formed a key sensitivity variable. Four major livelihoods activities were identi�ed across the zones. These were: �shing; forestry (including agro- forestry, and non-timber forest product collection); agriculture and ranching (both subsistence and com- mercial); and trade and commerce. Sensitivity factors included livelihood type, socioeco- nomic status and social exclusion. Subsistence farmers and economically and socially marginalized were iden- ti�ed as the most vulnerable groups to climate change. Economically and socially marginalized individuals include the elderly, orphans, widows and female heads of households, and the physically handicapped. Socioeconomic impacts of climate hazards were also identi�ed. These included impacts of water scarcity, including reduce crop productivity, food insecurity, and out-migration. Floods were identi�ed as causing damage to infrastructure, settlements, and household assets, and also contributed to disease outbreaks. Soil degradation and deserti�cation were understood by ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 89 respondents to result in increased pressure on alter- Preferred Adaptation Options Identi�ed native livelihood sources (e.g., as farmers joined the through PSD Workshops �sheries sector). Finally, wild�re was understood to result in loss of vegetation, as well as loss of timber Preferred adaptation options through the PSD for shelter and fuel. workshops identi�ed included a mix of hard and soft options. Key hard adaptation options were cen- Expected Future Adaptation Practices: tered on infrastructure investments, including road construction, dams, flood protection and drainage Survey respondents were asked what, if anything, investments, small-scale water storage, silos, hous- they would do if the climate hazards in their regions ing; and coastal protection. Soft measures identi�ed were to become signi�cantly more severe. The most included the development of early warning systems, common answers were: improvement of local and regional planning capac- ity, and promotion of participatory approaches to n Nothing natural resource management. Soft, centralized (70 respondents) adaptation options such as improvements to exist- n Move to a safer or more productive area ing government programs and practices were viewed (23 respondents) by local populations as important for building resil- n Seek help from others ience. Improved access to credit, better health care (9 respondents) and social services, as well as programs that enhance n Raise and sell animals the capacity of community associations to manage (7 respondents) local resources effectively and support livelihood n Improve the durability of the house diversi�cation were also prioritized. (6 respondents) n Practice drought-resistant cultivation Integration of Results in Overall EACC (5 respondents) Country Study These responses suggest severe constraints (whether The EACC-Social study contributed to the overall real and/or perceived) on households’ capacity to Mozambique country study for EACC, with results undertake autonomous adaptation, implying a need from the former aligning well with overall country for extension and outreach on adaptation options at results. In particular, the overall study concluded that local level. At a minimum, technical assistance for soft adaptation measures (including in disaster pre- improving land management practices and effective paredness) were a priority for the country, as well as early warning will be crucial to enhancing adaptive immediate, no-regrets investments. The importance capacity. Thus adaptation, even when undertaken of complementing hard measures such as road infra- by household themselves, requires support from the structure and flood management, with soft adaptation state and other actors, in terms of extension, train- was also noted. CGE model results also highlighted ing, or more extensive investments in improving area the importance of investments in human capital characteristics such as road connectivity, or weather through education. station monitoring. 90 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Annex Six ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 91 Vietnam Study Overview Projected Climate Change Impacts floods; and likely sea level rise of at least 1 meter (Government of Vietnam 2008)(see also Figure Vietnam is likely to be highly impacted by climate 10). Different regions are Vietnam are likely to have change, due to a very long coastline, dependence on unique climate impacts, making a single national pol- agriculture, largely rural population (70%), low lev- icy for adaptation difficult. Climate changes impacts els of development in rural areas, and location of the will be experienced amid a host of ongoing national largest urban center in a low-lying coastal zone (i.e., trends that can increase vulnerability. These include Ho Chi Minh City). Vietnam has been identi�ed as extensive losses of mangroves to shrimp farming for one of the top 15 countries in the world already vul- global export; declines in agricultural crop diversity; nerable to natural hazards like drought and storms, household livelihoods that are becoming less diverse; in terms of number of people and scale of exposure privatized natural resource commons; and eroded (Dilley et al. 2005). Forecasted temperature increases public social safety nets. Current development trajec- will exacerbate this condition to levels previously not tories are likely to clash with the realities of global experienced. The increase in temperature would be in climate change, hampering current growth and pov- the range of 1.6oC to 2.8oC in different climate zones. erty reduction. Temperatures in Northern and Northern Central cli- mate zones of Vietnam would increase faster than For storm and typhoon vulnerability, regional climate those in Southern zones. Vietnam has already begun models indicate that typhoons may continue to track to feel the effects: the average surface temperature has further south under global warming scenarios. Fur- risen 0.7oC since 1950; the typhoon and flood seasons ther, the season for storms will likely extend, mean- are longer than they used to be; droughts in areas pre- ing that areas which have not typically suffered from viously not vulnerable to aridity have been noted; as storms (the southeastern portion of the country and have increased incidences of heavy rainfall and flood- HCMC) may become increasingly vulnerable. All ing; and storms are tracking into new coastal areas areas of Vietnam are predicted to experience precipi- (Carew-Reid 2008; Ho Long Phi 2008). tation changes, but the strongest effects are likely to be the increased rainfall in the wet season, particularly The forecasted climate impacts to 2100 will likely for the Mekong Delta, and the decreased rainfall in be an increase in rainfall in wet seasons and decrease the dry season for the Central Highlands and South in rainfall in dry seasons of around 10% or more; Central Coast. There will thus be expansion of the increased intensity and frequency of storms and depths of flood areas, particularly into newer regions 92 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Vietnam Natural Disaster Risk Management Program of the southern part of the delta. With regard to population affected (Carew-Reid 2008). Two thou- droughts, decreased rainfall in the dry season will put sand individual communes (from a total of 10,000) increased pressure on the Central Highlands, Central were identi�ed as being at risk of partial or full inun- Coast, and Mekong Delta. dation from sea level rise. The biggest impacts would be felt in the Mekong Delta and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam may be one of the top 5 countries in the with Long An and Kien Giang provinces having the world likely to be most affected by sea level rise most land inundated (up to 50%). Forty-three per (SLR), with “potentially catastrophic� consequences cent of the area is at risk of inundation, and many (Dasgupta et al. 2007). A recent assessment of a 1 poor people have been identi�ed as living in these meter sea level rise asserts that 5% of the country’s inundation zones. Sea level rise will likely also increase land area would be ‘permanently inundated’, affecting salinity of shallow coastal aquifers, from which much 6 of Vietnam’s 8 agro-ecological regions and 39 of drinking water is drawn. It would also worsen coastal 64 provinces, with around 8% of the total national erosion and urban land subsidence. ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 93 Overview of Hotspots Central Coast region, the Central Highlands, and the Mekong Delta. The EACC-Social analysis for Vietnam identi�ed key vulnerability zones for the country, combining socio- Site Selection Rationale: economic and biophysical factors. It concluded that the Mekong Delta Region has high exposure and moderate 1. Northern Mountains: Little work has been sensitivity; the Central Highlands has moderate expo- carried out in ethnic minority areas on climate sure and high sensitivity; Northern Mountains has low impacts, particularly in the Northern Mountains. exposure and high sensitivity; Central Coast has high To understand adaptation practices in the moun- exposure and moderate sensitivity; Red River Delta has tainous region, Ha Giang province was selected, moderate exposure and low sensitivity; and the South- with a particular focus on ethnic minorities. east Region has low exposure and low sensitivity. 2. Central Highlands: Within the Central High- The team selected four regions to visit for local lands, Kon Tum was chosen as the �eld research assessments: the Northern Mountains, the site due to a relative lack of research on this 94 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT province generally. It also is a much less open even a small decline in income or loss of employ- economy than other areas, like Dak Lak to the ment opportunities linked to flooding would have south, with higher levels of poverty than other adverse consequences for nutrition, health and provinces in the region thus helping to demon- education. Thus the poor face a double exposure. strate climate impacts in a vulnerable region. They are far more likely to live in areas vulnerable to flooding, and they are less likely to live in more 3. Central Coast: The central coastal zone from robust permanent homes. For the �eldwork in the Nghe An to Binh Thuan is a long and vulnerable Delta, Bac Lieu province and Can Tho city were zone, likely to be subjected to increased storms, selected as study sites. surges and flooding. Because much of the coastal region is often not much higher than 1m above While each of Vietnam’s eight agro-ecological sea level, an area up to 20 or more km inland from regions will experience climate impacts, time and the coast is vulnerable to storm surges that bring budget limitations meant that not every region could salt water intrusion inland. For the EACC-Social be assessed through local �eldwork. Thus criteria for research on coastal vulnerability, Quang Nam selection of study sites for the local �eld work were province was chosen, with �eld research taking provinces that were: place in two sites, Hoi An city and Cu Lao Cham islands off the coast. Quang Nam was selected as n located in regions with high exposure and sensi- an urban area vulnerable to climate events, with tivity and low adaptive capacity; economic sector (tourism) likely to be quite vul- n representative of their agro-ecological region; nerable to climate events. Hoi An city is a well n places where little �eldwork had been conducted known tourist destination. on livelihoods or climate adaptation. 4. Mekong Delta: The Mekong Delta faces climate threats from flooding and sea level rise. There Empirical Findings are four million people living in poverty in the Delta. Many lack basic health protection and Vulnerability to Climate Change school drop-out rates are high. For this group, Vulnerability was found to stem from exposure fac- tors such as physical location and hazard-proneness TABLE 11 (including remote and physically vulnerable areas SITES SELECTED FOR STUDY IN VIETNAM such as upland or river communities); and sensi- ZONE PROVINCE VILLAGE tivity factors at area and household levels such as Northern Ha Giang Quang Ba degree of regional development, external invest- Mountains ment (particularly in infrastructure and education), Quong Binh and economic diversi�cation; socio-economic status Central Kon Tum Dien Binh Highlands including poverty levels, including in urban areas; Dak Tram climate-dependent resource livelihoods; and social Central Coast Quang Nam Hoi An town exclusion, including gender, age, and ethnic minority Cu Luo Cham islands and migrant status. Often, inequalities intersect, e.g., Mekong Delta Bac Lieu Long Dien ethnic minority populations are also concentrated in Long Dien Tay remote upland areas that suffer from underinvest- Can Tho City Ninh Kieu District ment in infrastructure and education. ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 95 Temporal aspects of shocks to households were also existing livelihood activities or diversifying, making highlighted by respondents. Extreme events cause small physical improvements to canals and pumps (by immediate shocks to household income and also well-off households); shifting to hardier crops or cash ongoing effects, if crops are destroyed either at one crops (also both only done by well-off households), go or during slow-onset events, such as droughts. In or changing cropping schedules. Across the country, Hoi An and Can Tho towns in the Mekong Delta, the migration varied in its importance to adaptation strate- poor had unstable employment (mostly wage labor) gies at household level, and was prevalent in the South. which could be lost if excessive flooding and storms Disaster risk management preparations took place occurred. Overall, losses due to climate events were seasonally at household level in flood-prone areas, e.g., strongest in agriculture, livestock, and aquaculture. Hoi An City. Richer households contract laborers in Even urban businesses can be climate dependent. In advance of flood season to be assured of ready access Hoi An, businesses related to tourism were highly to sufficient physical support for evacuation during negatively affected by extreme events. storms. However, it is clear that local people in both sites do not have long-term plans for coping with Past Adaptation Practices: Past household adapta- extreme weather events. Almost 60% of households in tion responses to climate variability identi�ed took Bai Huong �shing village in Quang Nam had no idea several forms. These included: expanding scale of about how they would adapt (see Table 12). 96 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Preferred Adaptation Options Identi�ed development (roads, irrigation, energy, and river through PSD Workshops dredging); iv. water sector investments, including water resource management and flood manage- Participants at local and national PSD workshops ment; v. early warning systems and disaster pre- prioritized the following adaptation options: i. paredness; vi. social protection; vii. afforestation integrated regional development, including area and “greening� of urban environments; viii. inte- development and planned urbanization; ii. agri- grated land use planning and bene�t-sharing for cultural investments; iii. sustainable infrastructure tourism and environment sectors; ix. training and TABLE 12 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES PLANNED BY HOUSEHOLDS IN QUANG NAM, VIETNAM IF FUTURE BRINGS MORE FREQUENT STORMS AND FLOODS ACTIVITIES AN THANG % BAI HUONG % No idea 12 57 19 95 Move to other living area 5 23 0 0 Build more stable house 2 10 0 0 Consult local government 1 5 0 0 Reduce industrial activities 1 5 0 0 See how situation will be; then think of plan 0 0 1 5 Total 21 100% 20 100 Source: Household survey ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 97 capacity-building on adaptation and disaster risk nets, insurance schemes, livelihood diversi�cation, management. Most groups identi�ed combinations increasing institutional capacity, or the role of local of hard and soft adaptation priorities. In no group action and social capital in building resilience and were only hard options identi�ed. adaptive capacity. The Government of Vietnam has prepared a National Integration of Results in Overall EACC Target Program (NTP) for Climate Change. How- Country Study ever, the NTP takes little account of local vulner- abilities and variation. Vulnerability and adaptation Interim results from the overall EACC study in assessments in the NTP tend to be focused on sec- Vietnam were presented in the May 2010 EACC tor-wide and quantitative assessments for the whole Country-Track Synthesis Report. This report reit- country, and on policy or capital-intensive solutions, erated that the impact of climate change is par- such as hard adaptation measures. The main adapta- ticularly large on the lowest quintiles of rural and tion measures mentioned in the NTP include sea urban income distributions. For rural areas, invest- dikes, reinforced infrastructure, and more durable ments in agricultural improvement and expansion buildings, along with some soft measures, such as of irrigation were reported to offset this impact and resettlement, storm warning systems and man- reduce inequality in the MoNRE scenario. Notably, grove planting (MONRE 2008). Less attention adaptation investments for the urban poor were not has been paid to date on soft adaptation measures addressed in the overall summary for Vietnam con- like community mobilization plans, social safety tained in EACC synthesis report. 98 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Annex Seven ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 99 Fieldwork Methodology The social component of the EACC study was Preparation for �eldwork included a �rst phase of designed to explore vulnerability in diverse country reviewing existing literature to identify “socio-geo- contexts in order to identify implications for pro- graphic zones� for the country (i.e., around 6-10 agro- poor climate adaptation planning. The study aimed ecological zones with a social and hazard overlay). The to answer the following research questions: literature review, summarized in country inception reports, surveyed climate change impacts and poverty n What factors make particular individuals, house- and vulnerability in the country; undertook a brief holds, or sub-national regions more vulnerable to institutional and policy review; and examined such the negative impacts of climate change? key issues as land tenure, and formal and informal forms of governance in the country. n What has been people’s experience of climate events to date and what adaptation measures have The literature review was followed by teams identify- they taken (both autonomous and planned)? ing up to two “hotspot� sites of climate vulnerability per socio-geographic zone. Climate vulnerability was n How do different groups, and local and national de�ned as the combination of physical exposure and representatives judge various adaptation options sensitivity to climate risk). Hotspots were identi�ed and pathways? using country team knowledge, primary data sources, and interviews with key informants. These hotspots n How do identi�ed adaptation priorities align were the sites for in-depth qualitative as well as quan- with existing development strategies and policy titative investigation, and also considered for local emphases? and/or regional workshop locations under the PSD component. Sites were selected with a view to cover- In order to address the above questions, a method- ing key hazard types, a mix of urban and rural sites, ology was designed that included literature review, and to ensure alignment with Bank or other donor �eldwork, and Participatory Scenario Develop- projects operating in the country. ment (PSD) workshop components, as well as dia- logue with other sector teams for integration across Fieldwork was undertaken at these sites, using quali- individual country reports. The PSD approach is tative and quantitative tools. Participatory Rural detailed in Annex 8. This Annex focuses on the �eld Appraisal (PRA) exercises (village history/ timelines; methodology. focus group discussions of men, women and different 100 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT age groups; wealth ranking; mapping of institutional adaptation practices in relation to household and area and tenure issues; impact diagrams of climate events assets; reported determinants and household/ local and community risk mapping, matrix ranking of criteria in adopting particular adaptation strategies; adaptation options) were undertaken, as well as key and preferred adaptation and development invest- informant interviews with local government, NGOS ments. Field results regarding local assessments of cli- and traditional leaders (see Figure 12 for an example mate impacts on livelihoods, and preferred adaptation of community risk mapping). Household interviews investments were then validated through structured were also undertaken (10-20 per site from different exercises undertaken under the PSD workshop track. income tiers, with questionnaire modules covering Those workshops at local, regional and national levels household composition, labor allocation, asset base, identi�ed local development visions, expected impacts livelihood sources, ethnicity, migration, patterns of climate change on these visions, and preferred adap- of income and expenditure, agricultural practices, tation options and combinations of options over time. landholdings and land tenure regimes, responses to climate and other shocks participation in formal The �nal phase of the social component comprised organizations, local governance, adaptation practices, integration and dialogue with other sector teams for collective action and risk-sharing, and current access preparation of a �nal country report incorporating to public investments and services). results from all sectors. Results regarding adapta- tion practices and preferences were shared to iden- Results were synthesized to develop typologies of: live- tify effective investments and program approaches at lihood strategies for different income tiers and zones: national level. ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 101 Figure 12. Example of Community Risk Map from Quang Nam, Vietnam 102 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT Annex Eight ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 103 Participatory Scenario Development Approaches Overview time. They also identi�ed prerequisites, synergies and trade-offs among their adaptation options, and with The aim of the Participatory Scenario Development other known development priorities (see Box 15). (PSD) workshops was to help local and national The PSD workshops drew from down-scaled climate actors explore different climate futures, and engage in and poverty scenarios offered as graphic “visualiza- structured debates around development priorities and tions� used in handouts, presentations and posters preferred adaptation responses. Participants included (see Figure 15). The PSD workshops helped iden- national and local government representatives, aca- tify locally-relevant pathways of autonomous and demic and civil society members, donors, and rep- planned adaptation, in the context of development resentatives from vulnerable communities, and were choices and decisions, and informed local actors on held at local/ regional (17 workshops) and national potential trade-offs, and possible consequences of (8 workshops) levels in all countries.5 Each workshop adaptation actions. was 1-2 days in length. Workshop participants orga- nized themselves into discussion groups, based on the The process allowed for joint assessment of required knowledge of particular sub-regions.6 interventions and distribution of bene�ts, and also pointed to key political economy issues in adapta- Process: The national workshops began with presen- tion planning and implementation. National PSD tations by local experts to characterize current cli- workshop invitees included government, NGO and mate and socioeconomic projections for the coming donor representatives, as well as academics, research- decades, as inputs to participants creating visions of a ers, and World Bank staff. Local PSD workshops “preferred future� for 2050. This was followed by con- included local government, male and female farm- sidering the speci�c impacts of climate change on the ers and representatives of other livelihood groups, future vision, and then identifying adaptation options local and international NGOs, and researchers, and necessary to reach the desired vision (see Figure 13). World Bank staff. Local-level PSD workshops fol- Finally, participants created an adaptation pathway lowed similar approaches, with some modi�cations of showing diverse priorities for adaptation actions over materials and exercises, depending on the audience (e.g., adding a timeline exercise of past adaptation 5 The Bolivia social study followed a slightly different approach to their practices in responding to extreme events; or matrix workshops (see Bolivia social report). ranking of different adaptation options). The PSD 6 Mozambique participants were grouped according to their knowledge approach was particularly effective in identifying of particular livelihood groups. 104 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT FIGURE 13 PSD Workshop Steps 2 1 Boundary Introduction Conditions: and Overview Socioeconomic C U RRE NT S ITU A T I O N and Climate & F U TU RE VIS IO N I N G 3 Climate 7 E NGAGE M E NT AND Change Reflection P ARTIC IP ATION Impacts and Wrap Up 4 6 Adaptation Adaptation Options 5 Pathway Adaptation Review Pathways multi-causal linkages and drivers of vulnerability in well as in value-addition for agricultural produc- climate-affected regions. The PSD component of tion such as processing and storage. Signi�cant the study had a capacity-building emphasis from improvements in governance including decentral- the start, including participation of national teams in ization, increased participation, conflict resolution workshop design, and in training on development of and natural resource management, and secure land visualizations and scenarios (ESSA-IISD 2009). tenure were emphasized, particularly to increase the adaptive capacity of communities and fully utilize Results all adaptation investments. Other key adaptation priorities identi�ed by participants include: effective Speci�c adaptation actions identi�ed during work- early warning systems and disaster preparedness, shops comprised a combination of hard and soft water storage and water harvesting, and improved adaptations (with some emphasis on the latter), and social protection and safety nets, with a focus on largely aligned with priorities identi�ed in NAPAs. urban and peri-urban areas. Adaptation investments were identi�ed in key sec- tors such as agriculture, forestry and water resources Reflection: In sum, the PSD process fostered an including relatively high-cost investments such as integrative discussion around development vision, flood protection, dykes, flood-resistant roads but climate impacts, preferred adaptation investments; also several soft investments in improved public ser- detailed discussion of sub-national difference, and vices and outreach, good governance, training and triangulation of results (e.g., between sub-national education (including in alternative livelihoods), as and national levels, and between the PSD results and ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 105 NAPAs). Scenario approaches are useful as heuristic BOX 15 tools that make mental maps more explicit (Berkhout QUESTIONS ADDRESSED IN PSD el al. 2002). They also explicitly incorporate norma- WORKSHOPS tive elements, particularly in the development vision exercise but also throughout the inductive process What is the local vision of the future, in terms of of identifying preferred adaptation investments (see development priorities, perceived climate change impacts, and feasible response strategies? Swart et al. 2004). Which areas/sectors are viewed as most vulner- Nonetheless, the PSD process must still be recog- able? What are the key drivers contributing to that nized as a participatory method for joint analysis vulnerability? and reporting of stakeholder preferences and assess- ments. Such a discussion on future adaptation needs, What speci�c adaptation option investments and sequenced combinations of investments (path- no matter how structured, is inevitably conditioned ways) are needed to respond to climate change by the limits of the past experience of participants impacts at national and sub-national levels? (and facilitators) and exposure to information, and How pro-poor are these identi�ed options? the prevailing policy discourse of what seems pos- Where in the region should these be applied and sible and needed in the current context. Difficulties who are the vulnerable groups? in people’s ability to imagine and plan for a differ- What are the preconditions including policy ele- ments needed to implement these effectively? ent future abound, and one must recognize the pos- What are the synergies and trade-offs among sibility of inherent path dependence in identifying these options? routes forward. Figure 14. Participants Making Presentation on Regional Adaptation Pathways in Ethiopia 106 ECONOM ICS OF ADA PTAT IO N TO C LIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 107 Figure 16. PSD Participants in Kalu District, Ethiopia, Discussing Past Adaptation Practices Annex Nine ECO N O MIC S OF ADAP TATION TO CLIM AT E C HA NG E : SOCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORT 109 List Of Outputs from EACC-Social Component Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS). McElwee, Pamela, Tuyen Nghiem, Dang Thu 2009. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Phuong, and Nguyen Van Be. 2010. Economics of – EACC (Social Component). National Synthesis Adaptation to Climate Change – Social Component. Report for Bangladesh. National Synthesis Report for Vietnam. Draft Report prepared by the Center for Natural Resources and Bizikova, Livia, Samantha Boardley, and Simon Environmental Studies, Vietnam National Univer- Mead. 2009. Participatory Scenario Development sity, Hanoi (CRES), Challenge to Change UK, and for Costing Climate Change Adaptation – Climate Dragon Institute, Can Tho University, and Arizona Visioning. SEL: 100018962. Prepared by ESSA State University. Technologies Ltd. Vancouver BC and International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) Win- Morales, Miguel. 2010. Economics of Adaptation to nipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Climate Change Bolivia: Country Study Report on Social Component. Ethiopian Economics Association/Ethiopian Policy Research Institute. 2010. Economics of Adaptation Patt, Anthony with Raul Varela, Isilda Nhantumbo, to Climate Change (Social Component): National and Livia Bizikova. 2010. Economics of Adaptation Synthesis Report for Ethiopia. Draft. to Climate Change: Social Component of Mozam- bique Country Study. ESSA Technologies Ltd and International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). 2009. Capacity Ruijs, A., A. Mekonnen, K. Gebreselassi, M. de Bel, Development Manual: How to Prepare and Deliver V. Linderhof, N. Polman, GJ Prins, M. de Bruin, and a Participatory Scenario Development Workshop. HJ Raad. 2010. 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