The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Russian Federation | Environment, Natural Resources & the Blue Economy Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2014 | Seq No: 17 | ARCHIVED on 22-Jun-2020 | ISR42467 | Implementing Agencies: RosHydromet, Government of the Russian Federation Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 17-Sep-2013 Effectiveness Date: 08-May-2014 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 05-Dec-2016 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 07-Dec-2016 Original Closing Date: 31-Dec-2018 Revised Closing Date: 31-Dec-2021 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The development objective of the proposed Second National Hydromet System Modernization Project (RU-Hydromet-2) is to further enhance the national capacity to deliver reliable and timely weather, hydrological and climate information to the Russian public and economic sector and enhance Russia's capacity to integrate into the global system of meteorological services. As a result of the projectRoshydromet will further modernize its services and improve the accuracy of information necessary to protect society and economy from a wide range of hydrometeorological and climate related hazards. The project will also support Russia's public institutions to make informed economic decisions related to climate information (both negative and positive impacts) based on comprehensive climate models and assessment capacity. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Component A. Strengthening Information Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructure and systems delivering weather, climate and hyd rological data and information:(Cost $64.14 M) Component B. Modernization of observation networks:(Cost $90.16 M) Component C. Institutional and regulatory strengthening, improvement of service delivery to clients and better preparedness for emer gencies:(Cost $17.28 M) Component D: Project Management:(Cost $7.78 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions The project is at its sixth year of implementation (became effective in May 2014). Given the enormous technical complexity (due to the size of the country and therefore the network, multiple layers of functions that Roshydromet is performing, etc), the project has achieved significant results. However, delays in implementation of several important activities have not been avoided. With the installation of the High-Performing Computer 6/22/2020 Page 1 of 7 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) (supercomputer) in Roshydromet's premises in Moscow, Khabarovsk and Novosibirsk, the forecasting capacity of Roshydromet (the lead time and reliability of the weather forecast) has increased: for example, the accuracy of warnings of hazardous events has increased from 88% to 95%, spatial resolution for weather forecasts increased from 15 km to 10 km. There is an increase (from 120 to 132 hours) of the lead time of basic weather forecasts since the supercomputer is fully operational. According to the latest survey carried out by Levada in December 2019, the users’ satisfaction rating has gone up from 65% to 81.6% exceeding the target of 80%. Deployment of the equipment for Volga hydrological network modernization is ongoing and will lead to improvement of reliability of hydrological forecast and flooding in Volga River basin. At the same time, there are several significant delays on key project items such as modernization of remote stations, telecommunication system, and several others. The Bank together with RosHydromet have agreed on the list of actions necessary to accelerate the project implementation. The progress under the actions will be closely monitored between now and the next mission scheduled for June 2020. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Substantial Moderate Macroeconomic -- Substantial Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- Moderate Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and -- Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary -- Substantial Moderate Environment and Social -- Low Low Stakeholders -- Substantial Moderate Other -- -- -- Overall -- Substantial Moderate Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes To enhance capacity to deliver reliable and timely weather, hydrological and climate information IN00862555 ►Increased lead times of basic weather forecasts for major Russian administrative centers with reliability over 70% (Hours, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 120.00 132.00 132.00 168.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 There in an increase of the lead time of basic weather forecasts since HPC is fully operational. The Comments: assessment is done by RosHydromet and will be officially released in the annual report in March 2020. 6/22/2020 Page 2 of 7 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) IN00862606 ►Increased reliability of forecasts of seasonal water inflow to reservoirs in the Volga River basin (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 75.00 80.00 80.00 85.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 The increase is due to completion of the contract B.4.d and further development of models carried out by Roshydromet. The most recent assessment was done jointly by RosHydrometCenter and Main Comments: Hydrological Institute in January 2020. IN00862607 ►Increased number of RHM sectoral data users (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 100.00 126.10 126.10 123.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 According to the report on the activities accomplished by Roshydromet in 2019 - (http://meteo.ru/egfd/144- Comments: formation-egfd). IN00862608 ►Increased satisfaction of users with RHM services (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 65.00 81.70 81.70 80.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 According to the recent survey carried out by Levada Center (this is the 2nd survey, the next round will be done in the end of the project), the user satisfaction has increased to 81.7%. The report is available and Comments: will be added to the project files. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component A. Strengthening Information Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructure and systems delivering weather, climate and hyd rological data and information IN00862609 ►A.1 Accuracy of warnings on natural hazards (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 88.00 95.20 95.20 93.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 Based on the internal documentation of RosHydromet for 2019. Will be publicly released in March 2020. Comments: 6/22/2020 Page 3 of 7 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) IN00862612 ►A.2 Increased level of spatial resolution of weather forecasts with the lead time of up to three days (for large cities) (Kilometers, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 15.00 6.60 6.60 5.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 The spatial resolution of 6.6 km has been reached for the entire territory of the country thanks to HPC and the advances with the modelling performed by RosHydromet. For Moscow, the spatial resolution reaches Comments: 0.5-2 km in the experimental mode so far. IN00862615 ►A.3 Number of oblast and territorial Roshydromet Centers providing remote client access to archived data (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 Thanks to the installation of equipment under A.2.a Comments: IN00862618 ►A.4 Number of Roshydromet centers providing operational access to observational data and products for internal and external RHM clients (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 100% of the centers are currently equipped with the necessary IT and software to provide operational access to user procurement under A.3.a. Comments: Component B. Modernization of observation networks IN00862610 ►B.1 Increased number of automated observation sites in pilot regions of the North-West of Russia (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 83.00 92.00 92.00 92.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 IN00862613 ►B.2 Availability of modern devices for measurement of soil moisture and heat regime of agricultural lands in the pilot regions (North Caucasus, West Siberia) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 80.00 6/22/2020 Page 4 of 7 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 100% of measuring points installed and operational. Comments: IN00862616 ►B.3 Modernization of upper air observation network (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 64.00 81.00 81.00 87.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 17 recipients of equipment signed the acceptance report. 4 more systems are expected to be installed Comments: under the contract in 2020. IN00862619 ►B.4 Reduction of error of water flow data in the Volga River basin (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 20.00 25.00 25.00 15.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 IN00862621 ►B.5 Percentage of the Volga River basin territory corresponding to the minimum required number of hydrological observation sites (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 81.00 81.00 81.00 100.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 Component C. Institutional and regulatory strengthening, improvement of service delivery to clients and better preparedness for emer gencies IN00862611 ►C.1 Developed/updated regulatory, organizational and administrative documents aimed at improving the organizational, methodological, financial and economic activities of Roshydromet (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 5.00 5.00 9.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 IN00862614 ►C.2 Re-training and professional upgrading of specialists from the Roshydromet’s organizations (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 169.00 4,286.00 4,286.00 9,300.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 1st quarter of 2019 - 422 people were trained out of planned 1844 in 2019. Comments: Throughout 2019, the actual number of people trained was 1944 instead of targeted 1844. Progress on this indicator will be reflected after the mission in February 2020. 6/22/2020 Page 5 of 7 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) IN00862617 ►C.3 Number of scientists and specialists participating in internships in leading universities and agencies outside Russia (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 2.00 2.00 10.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 The mission noted earlier as well that this target would be difficult to reach due to difficulties for Russians Comments: to obtain internships in leading universities and agencies abroad. IN00862620 ►C.4 Accuracy of warnings on hazardous hydrometeorological events delivered to regional authorities and the Ministry of Emergency Situations (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 81.00 91.00 91.00 89.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 Updated based on the recent assessment made by the RosHydromet that will be publicly disclosed in Comments: March 2020. IN00862622 ►C.5 Number of Roshydromet institutions where situation centers are deployed (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 25.00 96.00 96.00 102.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 13-Feb-2020 18-Jun-2020 31-Dec-2021 Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P127676 IBRD-82910 Effective USD 60.00 60.00 0.00 42.92 17.08 72% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P127676 IBRD-82910 Effective 17-Sep-2013 17-Jan-2014 08-May-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 6/22/2020 Page 6 of 7 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) Cumulative Disbursements PBC Disbursement Achievement Disbursed amount in Disbursement % PBC ID PBC Type Description Coc PBC Amount Status Coc for PBC Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 21-Feb-2018 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 6/22/2020 Page 7 of 7