JAMAICA Hurricanes and Earthquakes RISK PROFILE Photo: Yaprak Servi What is a country disaster risk profile? An estimation of the potential economic losses to property caused Snapshot by adverse natural hazards.  Inform disaster risk financing The hurricane risk in Country Disaster Develop key baseline data Jamaica is more significant Risk Profile Evaluate impact of disasters than the earthquake risk. Applications Promote and inform risk reduction Annual Average Loss (AAL) from hurricanes is Country At-A-Glance US$ 67.3M (0.5% GDP US$ Population Total Building Exposure US$ (Replacement Value) of GDP) and from 13.9 billion 2,720,000 36.4 billion earthquakes is US$ Population Urban 55% Gross Capital Stock Public 21% 36M (0.3% of GDP). Urban 55% Rural Rural 45% 45% Private 79% The Probable Maximum Loss for hurricanes (250 year return period) is US$ 3.5B (25.3% of GDP) Two representations of hurricane risk and for earthquakes (250 year return period) is US$ 2B (14.6% of GDP). Single-family, wood stud- wall frame with plywood/ gypsum board sheathing, as well as reinforced masonry AAL (in millions US$) bearing walls with concrete 9.1-13.0 4.1-9.0 0-4.0 diaphragms, are the Provinces by ratio (AAL/Province Exposure) lowest ratio nnnnn highest ratio buildings most vulnerable each to hurricanes, Absolute Risk: The larger the circle, the higher the Annual Average Losses that the province could potentially incur over the long term. category accounting Relative Risk: The darker the color, the higher the ratio of AAL/Province Exposure. The darkest for 23% of AAL. color represents the province of Saint Ann which has a higher proportion of vulnerable structures due to construction types and/or potentially higher hurricane intensity. JAMAICA What is at risk? Economic assets such as residential and non- residential buildings are at risk. These assets that are exposed to natural disasters are referred to as a country’s Building Exposure. The map provides the value of residential and non-residential buildings in each province at risk from hurricanes and earthquakes. Building Exposure (in percentage of total) n 2.4 - 3.5 n 3.6 - 7.0 n 7.1 - 15.0 n 15.1 - 25.0 n 25.1 - 26.7 1400 1400 Gilbert (1988) 1200 1200 What have been the historical losses? Historic Losses (M-USD 2015) Historical Losses - Millions (US$) 1000 1000 Jamaica has suffered significant losses from hurricanes. The direct losses have been modeled to 800 800 Charlie (1951) a high degree of accuracy in the risk profile. In 1988, 600 600 ` Hurricane Gilbert struck Jamaica. If this historical event were to happen in 2016, it would cause a loss 400 400 of US$ 1.3B, amounting to 9.6% of GDP. 200 Eighteen (1933) 200 Ivan (2004) Dean (2007) Seven (1912) 0 0 The chart shows the direct actual and modeled losses due to 0 200 200 400 400 800 600 800 600 1000 1000 1200 1200 1400 1400 historical events. Modeled Losses (M-USD 2015) Modeled Losses - Millions (US$) What are the potential future losses? 6000 6000 5000 The chart shows the estimated potential future losses in Jamaica 5000 that could be caused by hurricanes and earthquakes for a given return period. Millions (US$) 4000 4000 Millions (US$) 3000 3000 Hurricane 2000 2000 Gilbert This is the first step of quantification of contingent 1000 1000 liability. Next steps include determining its impact 00 on budgetary appropriation, which would directly Historical Historical 50 50 100 100 250 250 Return period in years 500 500 1,000 1000 inform the development of the disaster risk Return Estimated Losses due to HURRICANES period in years Estimated Losses due to EARTHQUAKES financing strategy. n Estimated Losses Due to HURRICANES n Estimated Losses Due to EARTHQUAKES To learn more, visit: collaboration.worldbank.org/groups/cdrp or email cdrp@worldbank.org In collaboration with Financed by JAMAICA © 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. 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