:
       
       



Russia: Bank Assistance for the Energy Sector




         
       Youri Bobylev and Jacek Cukrowski




    :  
:  .                                              2002
  :                                               
  :                                              , ..

   


    
    


    () ­  
    ;   
   .    
  ,     
   ,      
    .     
  ,      
         
 .    ,    
        
,     .




       ,
       
         
  .

  ,      ()  
        
 ,   .




 :
Operations Evaluation Department
Partnerships & Knowledge Programs (OEDPK)
 : ecampbellpage@worldbank.org
 : eline@worldbank.org
: 202-458-4497
: 202-522-3125
http:/www.worldbank.org/oed



...............................................................................................................................4
 .......................................................................................................................5
1.    ,   ......................................11
  .     ...................................................................................................................11
  .      ....................................................................................15
  .  ...............................................................................................20
  .  .............................................................................................................22
  .     ...................................................................................................24
  .      .................................................................................................26
2.        .........................28
3.       ..............................................32
  .     ,  ...........................................................................35
4.     ........................................................39
5.      ..........................................................42
6.       ............................................44
  A.       .............................................................................44
 I:                 ...........................................48
 II:            ,    ........................51
   II. 1                1990 
  1999 . (  . .  ) .................................................................51
   II. 2: ,    
  (1990-1999 .) 32.................................................................................................................52
   3:          , 1990-1999 .:   .......54
   II. 4:   , 1990-1999 .:  ......55
 III:  .........................................................................................................56
   III. 1:    ,     (  .
   .*) (       )..................................56
   III. 2:         
   (    )*................................................................57
 IV: ................................................................................................58
   IV.1:        
  ""  (  1997 .)..........................................................................58
   IV. 2:    ..............................58
   IV. 3:       (
    )...................................................................................59
   IV.4:      
    .........................................................................................59
   V:      1997 ......................................60
 VI:     1990    1995-1999 ............61
 VII:  Bank/GEF.......................................................................62
   VII. 1:  /GEF  ...............................................62
   VII. 2:    ( ).............................................62
   VII. 3:        .................63
 VIII:               ,  - . ,
,      
(),      .................................................64



      
,      
     (. 
 )     
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 (. ,     
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  ,  9  2001 ,  
    .  
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      (),
    . 
      .

 

  

1.    .    90- . 
     .  1997
.      
  27%    1990 .,    - 
45%.
2.  .     ,  
,          - 
      
   .  
,     , 
  ,   
    ,  
  .    
   .
3.    .     
, ,   ,   , 
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4.    .     
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5.  . ,  ()    
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6.      .    
    ,  
       , 

  ,     
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7.  .       
       
     -
,     ; 
       
       ,
,    , 
     .  , 
      .
8.     90- .,    
      
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    .
9.   .      
      
 ,     
 :  ,  ()   
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10.       : 
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11.        
       
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12.  ,     1990- .,
   ,    , 
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13.        
     
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   .

14.        
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   .

15.       
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16.  ,     
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    .

 

17.        
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    .

     .

18.        
       
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       .
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19.        -
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20. ,      
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,       ,    
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).  ,   
    (,  , 
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    .

1.       , 
 


.     

1.1.       
.    45%    
      .  2000 .
         48%. 
   -      
  . ,   ,
    -  10%,  
       ( 23,7% 
    1999 .).  -      
 (8,8%  1999 .).      -
         
     1.
1.2          . 
       
    .     
6,7 .  (48.6 . ),  5%   , 
   (  )   48,1
. . .,  33%   .   
  16%  ,       
     .
1.3.          
.         
     .  
 ,     ,
   - 
    .   
,      ,  
         
     .
1.4.   .  90- .  
  (.  II).  
     1862 . . 
  1990 .  1359 ..  1997 ., ..    27%; 
         1991
 1994 .


1 1999 .         9,4%,   -
34,8%.

    ·      570 ..  1987 . 
        47%,       1991  1998
         41%.   
      ,    :  
             
       ,      1992  1998 .
         8.1%.
    ·        
           39.7% 
     1990 .  49.2%  1999 .        
        39.6%  31.4%,  -  14.5%  12.2%.

1.5 .       
  1992 . -       
      .    
 -      
       .
1.6   ,   
  ,   
,        
. , ,     
        (.
 III),        
(,    )    
 .
1.7 .    -   (.
 IV).2   (, 
  ),        
    ,   
  .     
, ,    
   ,    .  
    
  ,     
    ( ,  
 ,3)     .
  ,        
  (. 4.8).



2     . .    
         .
3.  IV

1.8.    .    
   .  1994 .    
 30%      4.  
,    ,    5
 ,6      (.
 IV, V).
1.9.     , ,    
    
7     .8              9

      , , 
 ,    ,  
       
 .10  ,  
        
   (     
):    -   
    .    
       
       .
1.10 .      
  ,    (, 
   -    ).  

4         (  
 )    25%.
5        50%  ;  
    9%   ,  
- 64% (  1997 .).

6 1997 .       42%     
.
7        1%  
 (           5-6%).
8    ,   ,   , 
    ,    , 
       
      .
9        
(.  VI), ,   ,     
   ,      
    .
10 ,  « ...       ,
     -   
,      ,   
   -  ( 
  , ,  ,  
 ,      
 ,         .

      
.
1.11. .   
   , 
   ,     
 ,       
.     
  40-45%    .11
1.12       
      
,   ,   ,
       
    .   
     
     
,      
 .
1.13.   .    
      
-  ,   
,    ,   
   ,   
 .   
    
 .
1.14    ,   
      , 
      
.      
   12  
.13  ,     ,  
   ,   
  .   
    
- ,      


11    
12  ,     3/4    -
         
         
       ,
 65%    .
13       (, 
    ,     
,     ).

   ,    ,
   .     (  
 )   ,    , 
 ( ,    )
     .   ,
,     
 -    , 
  ""    
.
1.15    .    -
      . 
 ,      48%
  , 36%   
   30%     
.        ,
  .         
  ,  
,     
   .
1.16. .     (,
 ,     ) 
      ,  
        
 .     
   :
      ·        
        ;
      ·        
         ;
      ·      
           ;
      ·       
             ,
          .

.      
1.17.       
 ,  , .   
      31%,   
 -  50%.   ,   18-24% 
     20-25%   
 .

1.18 .  1987 .,    
  570 ..,     301 ..  1996
., ..   52.9%    14.
,   1997 .,   1998 .   
      .  1999 .
    .  2000 .  
 6%    323 ..
1.19         
       -  
      ,  
 ,     
   . ,  , 
      
     .
1.20.  ,     
       
,15        
  . ,   
    ,   ,   
   ,   
    "" , , 
    .
1.21       
,      
     .

      ·      121 .  1990 . 
        98 .  1998 .;
      ·        
          13%   27%;
      ·   ,    ,
          12 .  1990 .   2 200  1999, ..
           80% (.  II).

1.22         
       . 
       
      . 
      
     


14   1991  1994 .      10-14%
15        
  .

  .   ,   90- . 
14% ,     ,
  .  ,  
 ,     .
1.23        , 
   .    90- .
      
, ..      .    
        
.      
    , 
,  .    
   .  , 
    .
1.24.   (The Nelson complexity index), 
       
,    3,8,       - 9,5, 
- 7,1     - 6,5.16
1.25.  .      
      
.    
 , .. , ,  
 .        90-
 .  1991 .      -
  - ""17.    
     (   
  40).
1.26.   ,     
     18, 
       
   .  ,
       
       . 
 90- .       ,
   13 -  (
  2  ).19  


16Johnston, D. The complexity index indicates refinery capacity and value. Oil and Gas Journal,
Mar. 18, 1996, pp. 74-80
17  -    
        
 1403,    1992 .
181992 .    4,5 ..,   1999- 21 .. 
19        8%,    
  -9,6%

86,6%      87,7%  
.     113  
,        10,2%
( 6,9% ,  ).20  3,2%
     "".
1.27  .    
   ,  
  .    
 2 :  "" ( 
  )   ""
().      - 
 ,       
.       
    (
),         
     .
1.28 .    1995 .     
    .   
      ( 
 ),     . 
       
    (.  II).   1994
.     27%  ,    1995 .,
         
  ,    .   1996-97
.       63-64 . 
 (   60%   ),  
         75%  
.   1998 .      
        15,5-16 . 
.   1999- 2000 .    ,  
  33%   . ,  
    ,     
  .   , 
       -  
  (-    
 )      
.



20 ,       
     - . 
         
.

1.29 .      
   246,3 ..  1990 .  184,5 ..  1999
(..  25,1%).         
   269,9 ..  1990 .  120,5 ..  1999, 
        
47,7%  60,5% (.  II).21    
         , 
     
,     
      
 .  1994 .        
    .  1994-1995 . 
    ,   1999 .  
,       ,
      . 
,      ,
     ,   -
 .
1.30 .    
         (1992 .),
        
   .   1995 .   
"    ,"   
  .22      
      1999 ., , 
,        .
      ,  
       . 
 90- .       (-1, -2 
),23         
.
1.31 .    
    ,  
 :     ,
  ;     ;




21, , ,      
.
22        
        . 
      ,  
        .
23        .

    .24   90- .
   ,    
 ,  50%,    1999-2000 . 
          
     
.
1.32   .   , 
       , 
       
 ,      
   .

.  
1.33   .      
   643,4 . . . ()  1991  571,1   1997
.       
    25   
 .  80%  
      26
: ,   .
1.34      (
, 38%    27 ). 
 94%   .     1998 . 17,5
. . ,   1999 .- 12.4 . . .  -
      (140 .  )
  .   
    
  (  
),     
    .
1.35       : ,
 1997 .     25%  
 .28,29


24         
 30,         
.
25   ,          
 
26 ""   ,  
 1000 
27   1998 .
28     .  1999 . International
Energy Agency, 1999
29 -    

1.36 . -    .  
       33  35%  
  .   90- .  50%  
    ,   ,
         , 
        
.  ,      
         ( 
1999- 64%).      , 
         
      .  
       "" 
         .
1.37   .       
,         
  ,    .  
    :   
     ,  
.  1992-1997 .   
   ; ,   1997 .   
   -  
.30
1.38 -       
.   ,  15%  -
        .
 ,   ( ,  
)     
 .   1999 .    
     1,8 . .  (.
 IV).
1.39   .   
-  ,  ,  , 
         
 .  1997 .   
     :  
       
  ,   ,  15% 
.        
.
1.40  .   ,    
    
      ,

30-     -       SAL.

      .   
    
     
.      ,
   ,   
      
     .  ,  
    ( 25% 
   ),   
,         
, ,  ,    
    .

.  

1.41.     .  1988 .  
    .    1990 
1998 .      41%31 - 
   (  
),       
32.   90- .     (.  II).
1.42.   1995 .    
 199  33  65  ,  
   "."34  1994 .  
  819078  ( 1992 .- 91433135).
1.43 .  ,        
   ,       
       
      ,  
  ,       
   . ,   , 
 ,         ,


31     (. II. 4  II),       . .
     43%. (. .II. 1 . II).
32     6-      .
33          
    (   ,   , 90
 ),   .
34«»       
       ,
   ,    .
35    (244 ,    1994 .  76 ..
)  925 . .,       ( 2354 ,    1994 . 
 937,4 .. )  97 . 500 .

        ,   
 .
1.44 .      90- . 
        
 .   1993 .     
    70%.   
    1%    5% 
 .  80%   
    ,   17% -  
       
.
1.45          
1,04%   1993 .  0, 45%   1995 .  
       
 77%  1993 .  31%  1995 .,       37
« » .
       626 .  1993 .  
526 .  1995 .  73%      
     .
1.46   1996 .      2 . .,
     .  1998 .  
  0,2 % ,  13%    , 
  500 . .36
1.47 .      
   .    
     .
      ,   
    .   ,       
-   .
1. 48 .   
    :  
 ,   ,   .
      
      .
1.49      1702 ( 1992 .) 
    (    
)     "".   
        
 .      
      .
   
 ,  ,  ,

36International Coal Report, # 466. January 25, 1999.

-     
  .                   37

1.50   .  
      
   ,    
  .     
      ,
          .

.    .

1.51 ,   .    ,  90-
.     :  1997 .
    27%  ,   1990 .
    600 
 ( 69 %    ),  100
 (22%)  9  (10%).   
  205  (  1999 .- 13 ), 
,     188 .  1998 . 45%
     , 17%-
, 13%-  , 19% - ,  6%  
  .
1.52   :  1994 .   
2%.        (54% 
  )   70 
 .    
  .
1.53  .   
   146,700 . ,  
 110 .      ,  
    .
1.54 .       ,
        ,
  .  1997 . ,  ,
   42%     . 
     
.  2%  ( 2,6%-  1994 .  1,6%  1997 .- .  IV).
       2/3  
    .     ,



37        
    800 . ..

    ,  
    38.
1.55    
 ,   
.  , ,    
  ,     
  .
1. 56. .    
      : () 
  ,   
  ; ()   
   ,   
  .     
   .  ,   (
   2000 .)      ,
     ,   
,  .
1.57. 15  2000 .    
    :   
 ;   
 ;  10-15    30
      
  .   
  ,        ; 
    ,      
  2,7     3 ,  
      
.
1.58   .   ( ,   
 )    
 ,    .
 ,   ,  
      
  -    
       
.        
 .     
  ,     
, ,     
 .   
      
 ,    

38.  IV

     
  .

.      .

1.59   .   
      (81%
     ).  
  55%    
 .
1.60      ,  
    , , 
     ,
 (, , ,  ).   
       
  :   ,   
     ,  
    -  .
        47%, 
 38%.
1.61    . ,  
,     ,
       260 . . 
     
  ,     . 
,     ,   
    ( 11%    ).
   ,      17%.
1.62.   . ,  
     ,
         .   
        
.     ,  
,         
,   ,   
  .
1.63 ,     
,      
   ,   
    ,  
,       
.       
,   ,   , 
.

1.64  .     
 ,      ,    
    .  ,   
        
     
   .

2.        
 

2.1.         
       
,      
         ,
      
  .
2.2.      
    : ()  
- ,    ; ()
      
   ,    
, ,    
, ,  ,     
 ; ()    
  .
2.3    90- .     
      ,    
      
  .      
     
       
 .   
        
    .
2.4.       
     ,
       
   ,    
.         
     .
2.5.        
     
.       
  1996 .     
    SAL I  II,    
    .
2.6           
: ()       
    ,
,     
 ; ()  

,         
         
  .
2.7        -
      
   ,    .    
  ,   
  .     
   ,  
,      ""
   .
2.8.       
       
   ,     .
,  ,       
   (  , 
  ),         
     
 ( ).
2.9    :
·  ,   ,  
   --   
    ;
·        -
    ;
·   ;
·    ,  
     ;
·         
   ;
·          
        
    ;
·      ;
·      ;
·   ;
·      ;
·     ,  
     .
2.10     90- .     , 
    ,    ,  
           
       .

2.11       ,   
          .
   -   ,  
           90- .,
          
          
   .  1996 .     ,
      ,  
    Rehabilitation I  Rehabilitation II.
2.12  .     
      ,  
   ,  ,  
       .
    ,     : () 
          
        ; ()
         
   ,      ;
   ()      
        
            "".
2.13        
         
   ,   ,  
      ,    
   ""      ,  
         
        (Rehabilitation Loan, Second Rehabilitation
   Loan, Oil Rehab. I, Oil Rehab. II).
2.14  .      
          
          
     ,     
          
   .       
    ,     ,
   ,    ,
      ,  ,
            (Gas Dist. Rehab,
   Energy Efficiency Loan).
2.15  .    ,
      90- .   
     ,   
       ,  

        
   .    :
        , / 
       (   
    "" ),    
    , /   
    ,       
          
    ,   ,
         
        ,
        , 
           
       ,   
         
   ,      (Coal Secal
   I, II, Coal Sector Restruturing Implementation).
2.16 .     
    (   
       )  
       ,   
        .
      :   
    (      
        ),
        ( 
    ),  (  
         ),
   ,      
    (Gas Dist. Rehab. and Energy Efficiency, Eletricity Sector Reform
   Support).
2.17  .    
          
   ;    
   ;  / 
        ,
      ;  ;
         
    39.
2.18    .    1993  2000 .
     ,    ,
    2, 849 . . ( 1997 .   

39. Municipal Heating Project Planning for 2001

      - 870 . .).40    1993 
    1995 .        
       41 ( 1 209 . .  
      1 279 .,    
    ).     1996  2000 . , 
    ,        
    42 (1 525 . .    1 565 . .
        ).  
          VII,   
       4    
      : 1990-1991:0; 1992-1995: 1, 279 . .; 1996-
    1997: 1, 365 . .; 1998-2000 - 200 . .
2.19   ,  ,   
        ,  
            90- .  
    ,      -
     ,   - ,    
     ,      
     . ,   ,    10 -     43

     ,    .

3.          
 

.              .

3.1      90- .   
        ,  
       .
3.2 A Study of the Soviet Economy (Chapter V.6: Energy).44  ,
      1991 .,     
           
     . ,  ,  
      ,     
     (, , , , ..) 

40   
41The First and Second Rehabilitation Loans, Emergency Oil Spill Recovery and Mitigation
Project/
42Coal Secal 1, Coal Sector Restructuring Implementation, Coal Secal II, Coal and Forestry
Sector Guarantee Facility.
43   ,  «...     
»   ,     90- .   , 
      
    .
44A Study of the Soviet Economy. Vol. 3; IMF, IBRD, OECD, EBRD, Paris, pp. 181-232

        .   
          
          ,  
   .
3.3       ,  
         
     . ,   , ,  
      :
·      ;
·  ;
·  ;
·    -   ;
·  ;
·      ;
·  ;
·     (     
   );
·    ;
·    (  
   );
·        
   ;
·    ;
·    ;
·         ( 
      );
·     ;
·      .
3.4  Russian Economic Reform: Crossing the Threshold of Structural Change.
   ,  
  1992 .,    .  
    , 
   .  ,
  ,      
      .  
,    :
·          2-
            
    ;
·      , 
          
        ,   ;
·      ;

·  ,    ,
     ,;
·       
   ;
·        
    ,     ;
·     .
3.5   Measures to Revitalize the Russian Oil Sector: Tax nd Related Reforms.
  ,    1998 .,  
      
;     " 
"       ,  
 .      
    ,  : () 
 , ..    ; () 
     ; ()
       ; () 
  "".
3.6     1993-1994 .    
   ,     
       . 
       1994 . 
"Restructuring the Coal Industry: Putting People First".   
 ,      ,   
        .
3.7        , 
      
  ,    
.  ,   , , 
     
 ,      
    .
3.8    ,      
 .      
       
     ,   
     
.   ,   
 ,      
,      "
    "45.

45   , «     , 
  ,   ,   

3.9   ,     ,   
 ,    90- .,  
   ,     
    ,      
.

.    ,  

3.10  .     
   : Oil Rehabilitation I (  610 .
.)  Oil Rehabilitation II (500 . .).   
    :
·        
     ;
·  ,    
        
       ;
·    , 
    ,     
        ;
·  , ,  
    ,    
    .
3.11  , ,  ,  , 
     , .  
   - .   90-
 .      :
, "   ,"    1992 .,
 ,       
 .
3.12        ,
,      
 .
·          
    ,     
        .    .
·       ,  ,  
     ,    
      ,  ,   
   ,    (  68-69%) .


 ,  «   
 »

3.13         
  , - ,  
        
46      
.47        
:
·     
   "  " (1994) ,  
        -  
         .
        , 
   ,        
        .
·     
         
      1992 . "  
       ,"    
   "  " (1994),    
   472  1995   "   
       2010 ."
· 3.14              
         
   ,      
    . ,       
   () ,    ,  
        .
3.15    (  )
          
,         
(      ).
       
       
       .48

46  -   ,  -
         
   .
47       (, , )
48     , ,   
      . The
Russia Oil Transport and Export Study     ESW,  
    -  
   ().      
   ,      
    ( ,   
  ,       ),  

3.16.  "Emergency Oil Spill Recovery and Mitigation". 
    99 . .    
.      

      1 .  , 
  , ,     
    ,     
 ,      , 
     .   ,  
     , , 
  ,     "",
          
 .  ,  , ,     
      ,  .  
,        
    "",    
     ,    
  , ,   .   
      . ,   ,  
     Rehabilitation Loans    
  ,     ,   ,  
,   ,       
.
 , , ,       
   ,  : (1)    -
       90- .,   
         
    1994 .; (2) ,    , 
   ,  ,      
  .      
       , 
         
 . (        
     1999-2000 .    
     ); (3)   
,          
   ;      
 ,  . -,   90- .   
    . -,
  ,       
  (  ,       
     ).     ,   
,         .
(4)   ,    
   ,      
,  , -,     ,  () ,
   ,   ; ()  
     . (5)  
      90- .       
 -  ,   , 
   1992  1994 .      - 
.

    ,     -
   .    
   ,   -    
    .
3.17    .    
      : Coal
Adjustment Loan I (500 . .), Coal Adjustment Loan II ( 800 . .)
 Coal Sector Restruturing Implmentation Loan (25 . .). 
   : ()  
 ,     
   ; ()  
     ; () 
    ; () 
    .
3.18      
        
,    , 
"      ".
3.19      (SAL I, II, III). 
    -     
     .   
      Rehabilitation Loan II, 
     
  "  ".      
 ,  ,      
  .
3.20    SAL I  SAL II  
 : ()        
  ; ()       
 ; ()    
   ; ()  
     
      .
3.21 ,   SAL III,     
  -:  , , 
   , : ()   ;
()     ; ()  , 
,    , .. 
    ; ()  ,
         ; () 
   ,   
   .
3.22        
      .

 ,      
  "  
-   "  
 2000 .

4.        

4.1.        
   .49
4.2.        ,  
  the Coal SECAL I, II  the Coal Sector Restructuring
Implementation Loan.50      
  1993  1998 .     
  1%  0,2 % .    :
·  ,    
    ,       ,    
       53%;
·       70% 
         1993 .  13% 1998 .;
·      
    (""):     ,   
       ,   ,
        ;
·    ,    
            5%  1993 .
     22%  1998 .  42%  2000;
·       1994  1998 . 
      74%;
·       
    ,      
      .
4.3        
     .  ,  
       
. ,   2001- 2002 .    


49 , , «        
 , , ..,       
  ,     ,  
 ».
50     ,       
, ,  «    SECAL 
    2 »,  ,  «   
,     SECAL,   .  
      .

 ,    2003 .,   
  51.
4.4          .
     Rehabilitation Loans  , 
the Emergency Oil Spill Recovery and Mitigation Project 
     .  (
 ).       ,
  ,   (
      60%  ), 
  ( )   
 ( ,   ).
4.5.        
,       . 
-     
     .   
    52   
 ;     
  .   
 ,  -    
        
(    )53 .
4.6    ,      ,
,  ,      
 .       , 
  . ,    
       .
4.7          
,  ,  ,
,      , ..  



51       ,    ,
«       
».

52 ,        
,     . ,  ,  2001 .
          .  , 
         , 
        .
53  ,        ,
   1998 .    ,   
     SAL III. ,  SAL III
 1999 .         
   ,      .
  ,         .

  ,   ,   , 
      54 .
4.8   ,       (..
SAL)   ,  ,   ,
 (   SAL III),    
 "   -
   ",   2000 . 
,    SAL I  II    
 (,    ) 
  ,   
       
 .      
 .     
        -
,         
.  ,   ,   
      0-25%  1999 .   75%  
2000 .,     70%.
4.9      ,     
        -
       , ,
    .  ,  
      
,     (  ,
    ,    
  ,     
,   , .,), -
    ,   
   10 55 .      
     ,  
 .       56




54  ,  "   ,    100 .
.  ,     ". , ,
,         
   .
55      , ,   , 
          
    .
56   ,      
       
   ,     
  ,      
 (, ,      ).

5.        

5.1           
     :  1996 . 
    31% .  
1998 ., ,       
,    , 
   74%.     1998 .
    ,   1999 .  33%
     ,    2000 .
  ,    73%    
  .
5.2       , 
     -  
    ()   , 
     , 
    ; ()  
    ; () 
      .
5.3    .  ,    
    -   
  , , ,   1993 ., 
,      ,
  1998 .,   2000 .   
.
5.4       .     
  ,  ,    
      : 
     - 
;    -  USAID, CIDA  ; 
  -  ,    
.
5.5          
        ,
     .   ,
      ,
,   -   
 .       ,
      
     ,  
  ,    
   .
5.6     .   , 
,        

   -   
      
,       
.  ,     ,   
      , 
 ,     
 .      ,
 "-"    
      .  
      -  (
,   ), , ,  
   "" ,  , 
.  ,      
    ,   
    .57   ,
      .
       ,  
       ,
,  ,       
     .
5.7   .   ,   
        
    ,   
        
       
 .
5.8        ,
        
        
 , , ,   
   .    
 -        
 ,     .
5.9  ,     ,
         
     ,  
      
 . ,     
     , , ,


57       : , ,
       , 
    ,       
 Coal SECAL II  SAL III.

  ,    , ,
    , ..,-   -
   . ,   , 
      ,   
         
  (       
,     ).

6.       
 

A.     

6.1          ,
    :
·       
    -     
   ;
·       
    ;
·       - 
   ;
·     , 
    ,    
     (    , 
       , -  
   ,      ,  
      ;
·      
    ,    
          
           (,
         Coal SECAL I, II,  Coal Sector
   Restructuring Implementation Loan);
·       
        . 
     Second Coal Sector Restructuring Loan  ,
    ,   , 
       
   ,      800 . .  
    The First Oil Rehabilitation Project   160 .
   .,       316 .  

     : ,   
    .58
6.2.,  ,       
        
.59    , 
  ,    
.60.

B.      
 

6.3         
?

·        
       
          .
           
   .   ,  
       61  
          .
·       
           


58  , « , USAID    
      ,
,   500 . .  1 . . .»
59  ,      ,    
      .
60 ,  « ,     
     ,   ,  
         
(       )   
    ,   ,   
        
 (      ).    , 
,     ,- : 
 ,   ,  
 .  ,      
         
  .  ,      
          
 ;. ,      
,        ""
   ".
61  ,        ,  
    .

   ;  ,   ,  
      ;
·     
        ;    
        ;
·       
   -    ;
·      
    ,    
          
          ;
·       
    -      
   ;
· ,      
    .      
    ,      
    .    
        
    62 .
6.4       ,  ,
       (
       
 ).    ,  
        ,
   ,     
 , ..     
      ,
     
.
6.5       
      ,
     
      
( ).,   ,
   .63
6.6       
     

62  ,       
        ,    
  .       
   .
63          ,
   

,      
      
    .    
      
 3-     .
6.7         
,   ,   , , 
,   "" ( , 
),   , 
  ,  , ..
6.8          
  (  "")   ,  
   .
6.9          
      , 
   .   
   .   
    ,   ,  , 
 :   , 
 ,    "",  
 .  ,      
  , ,   
      .
6.10  ,  ,   
   ,   
.        
   ,   
      
     .    
   ,    
     .  
   ,    
  .
6.11     -
       .
6.12 ,        
        
       
 .

                                   48



                                                                          ANNEX I
 I:            


                                                                        
                                                                       
 1990-91 .:      1990-91 .:   1990-91 .:              1990-91 .:       ,  
                                                                        
   ;                           ,                       .                ;
                                                                        
                                ,                                      .
                                .
 1992-95:        1992-95 .:   1992-95 .: Oil          1992-95 .:        
                              Rehabilitation I ($ 610                   
  ( 199                       .) 1993; Oil                              
.)                            Rehabilitation II ($500  ;                 
.               ,             .) 1994; Emergency         
                  Oil Spill Recovery and               . 10%            
,                 ;           Mitigation ($99 .)        50%;            ,
                ,             1995; Gas distribution                      ,
                              Rehabilitation and                          
                 .            Energy Efficiency ($70                    
.                             .) 1995.                                  .

 1996-98:        1996-98:     1996-98 .: Coal         1996-98 .:  
" "             ,             Sector Adjustment I                      . 
                              ($500 .) 1996; Coal     1.0%  1993  0.2%   
                              Sector Restructuring     in 1998 .;        , 
                              Implementation ($25      "";   

                                  49



              ;             .) 1996; Electricity                     . 
                             Sector Reform Support   (               
              ; ($40 .) 1997; Coal                                  ,   
                  Sector Adjustment II                                
              ;              ($800 .) 1997.                          .
                                                     5%  1993  22% 
               ;                                     1998.);  
              ,                                       1994  1998 .
                                                      
              ;                                        
                                                     35%; 
                                                      50% 
                                                     .
 1999-2000 :   1999-2000 :   1999-2000 .:            1999-2000 .:    
 -                                                                    
                             Oil Rehabilitation II                    
  10 .                       Coal SECAL II; Coal      (.  II.1       
              .              and Forestry Sector       II);           
                             Guarantee Facility ($200  
                             .) 2000                   
                                                     ;  
                                                      
                                                     
                                                       42% 
                                                      
                                                       
                                                     ;  
                                                        
                                                      

50



       (
       70-75%); 
       
      ,
       
        
      

                            51




 II:            ,    



 II. 1                
 1990  1999 . (  . .  )

                 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199

                  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9

                 186 175 165 153 143 140 139 135 136 138
,
:                2   8   6   9   8   2   6   9   7   8

    ,
                 738 661 571 506 454 439 431 437 434 436

                 739 742 740 713 698 685 694 659 682 683

                 270 241 230 209 186 181 171 164 154 170

  , ,            20, 20, 17, 15, 11, 10, 8,9 7,4 6,4 6,9
                 3   3   2   5   0   8

   . ,
 
   -, 
                 94, 93, 97, 95, 89, 86, 91, 91, 90, 92,
                 7   7   8   5   0   2   1   6   6   1
. 

: 

                                    52



 II. 2:           ,    
(1990-1999 .) 32

                1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
 ,
. .
Ïîèçâîäñòâî     516.2 462.3 399.3 353.9 317.8 306.8 301.3 305.6 303.4 305.0
Ýêñïîðò, âñåãî 220.3 173.9 137.7 122.6 129.8 122.3 126.0 126.9 137.1 134.5
 Âíå ÑÍÃ        99.7  56.5  66.2  79.9  91.7  96.2 105.4 109.8 117.9 115.7
 Â ÑÍÃ         120.6 117.4 71.5   42.7  38.1  26.1  20.6  17.1  19.2  18.8
 ×èñòûé ýêñïîðò 201.5 155.8 127.0 112.2 121.6 113.8 117.2 118.7 128.6 128.5
                269.9 266.2 231.4 196.5 151.4 150.4 131.3 132.2 125.1 120.5

                39.0  33.7  31.8  31.7  38.3  37.1  38.9  38.8  42.4  42.1
 ( % 

)

, ..
Ýêñïîðò, âñåãî  50.6  46.1  43.0  47.4  47.3  47.0  57.0  60.6  53.8  56.9
 Âíå ÑÍÃ        35.0  27.0  25.3  35.3  39.1  43.5  55.0  58.4  51.2  53.9
 Â ÑÍÃ          15.6  19.1  17.7  12.1   8.2   3.5   2.0   2.2   2.6  3.0
 ×èñòûé ýêñïîðò 44.8  40.3  40.9  45.2  44.8  42.6  52.8  54.7  49.7  56.0
 


, .
                246.3 196.1 167.9 157.4 166.4 156.4 170.0 173.4 178.3 184.5
  %  47.7             42.4  42.0  44.5  52.4  51.0  56.4  56.7  58.8  60.5



, . .
.
                640.6 643.4 641.0 618.4 607.2 595.4 601.1 571.1 591.0 590.7
Ýêñïîðò, âñåãî 249.2 246.8 194.4 174.4 184.3 192.2 198.5 200.9 200.6 205.4
 Âíå ÑÍÃ        96.0  91.0  87.9  95.9 109.3 121.9 128.0 120.9 125.0 131.1
 Â ÑÍÃ         153.2 155.8 106.5 78.5   75.0  70.3  70.5  80.0  75.6  74.3
 ×èñòûé ýêñïîðò 179.2 177.8 187.4 168.4 180.3 188.3 193.9 196.4 197.6 201.3
                461,4 465,6 453,6 450,0 426,9 407,1 407,2 374,7 393,4 389.4

                28.0  27.6  29.2  27.2  29.7  31.6  32.3  34.4  33.4  34.1
 ( % 

                     53


)
     395 353 337   306   272   263   257   245   232   250
, ..
 1082, 1068, 1008, 956,6 875,9 860,0 847,2 834,1 827,2 845,0
. ,   2  2    5
. 

:      1990-1991 .  
     .      

: ,    ,
  ,    ,  .

                   54


 3:     , 1990-1999 .:
 

         1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

 ,       516,2 462,3 399,3 353,9 317,8 306,8 301,3 305,6 303,4 305,0
  ,
..
 ,       297,8 286,3 256,0 223,0 187,0 183,0 176,2 178,0 164,0 169,0
.
 , .. 40,9 38,8 35,1 30,0 26,8 28,2 26,6 27,2 25,9 26,5
          76,2 72,2 65,0 55,1 46,7 47,4 46,8 47,7 45,2 46,8
, ..
         100,2 97,1 88,0 78,3 69,5 65,1 63,9 62,5 55,3 52,2
, ..
         138,7 144,9 147,0 145,8 141,9 142,7 139,2 138,8 133,0 134,9
  
 ,
.
   121,1 121,5 115,1 113,2 103,3 104,0 102,6 102,1 98,0 101,9
  
, .
          17,6 23,4 31,9 32,6 38,6 38,7 36,6 36,7 35,0 32,9
,  
 ,
.
          12,7 16,1 21,7 22,4 27,2 27,1 26,3 26,5 26,3 24,4
,  %
          37,9 32,4 24,6 20,5 12,7 11,6        8,3   8,8   6,3   6,5
  
 , ..
   32,7 28,7 21,2 18,7 11,4 10,2               6,9   7,4   5,0   5,3
, ..
           5,2   3,7   3,4   1,8   1,3   1,4   1,4   1,4   1,3   1,2
, ..
          12,0 10,3    8,0   7,6   5,4   4,6   3,4   3,0   2,4   2,2
, .
: 

                  55
 II. 4:   , 1990-1999 .:
 

           199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199

            0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9

  ,
..,        395 353 337 306 272 263 257 245 232 250
           176 140 146 132 117 111 101 93  82  89
   ()      219 213 191 174 155 152 156 152 150 161
   
   ,
%          56 60   57 57  57   58 61  62   64 65
 
   
,  %
           83 83  84  84  86  88  89  91  93  93
: .

                            56



 III:             

 III. 1:           ,    
(  .  .*) (       )


                   1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

                   15.2 25.1 28.2 60.8  63,9 63,1  16,4 37,0  54,9

                   44.1 81.1 71.3 162.9 164,0169,6 63,4 171,9 199,3

äèçòîïëèâî         38.6 73.9 62.0 137.3 153,8170,0 52,9 125,0 185,0

òîïëèâíàÿ íåôòü    20.0 24.7 30.7 62.5  71,2 73,8  22,0 46,1   79,7

, .  . . .         0.5  1.4  1.9  3.8   6,9 6,6    2,1   2,2  3,1

*      .    ..

:      

                          57



 III. 2:        
    (    )*

        1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000


 , 113.1 114.4     85.5 106.3 118.0 158.5 104.4 60.1 168.4 166.6
US$/.
         0.44 15.2 25.1  28.2 60.8  63.9   63.1 16.4  37.0    54.9
, US$/.
          0.4 13.3 29.4  26.5 51.5  40.3   60.4 27.3  22.0    33.0
  % 
 
 .
 , 245.6 240.5 186.3 214.9 221.9 270.8 228.6 157.8 281.5 332.3
US$/.
         1.25 44.1 81.1  71.3 162.9 164.0 169.6 63.4 171.9 199.3
, US$/.
          0.5 18.3 43.5  33.2 73.4  60.6   74.2 40.2  61.1    60.0
  % 
 


 , 181.7 176.5 146.6 159.8 180.5 222.5 172.3 111.5 220.9 293.9
US$/.
         0.89 38.6 73.9  62.0 137.3 153.8 170.0 52.9 125.0 185.0
, US$/.
          0.5 21.9 50.4  38.8 76.1  69.1   98.7 47.4  56.6    62.9
  % 
 

 ,       75.1 75.4 65.6  90.2 107.4 121.7  94.2 61.4 116.4 152.9
US$/.
         0.49 20.0 24.7  30.7 62.5  71.2   73.8 22.0  46.1    79.7
, US$/.
          0.7 26.5 37.7  34.0 58.2  58.5   78.3 35.8  39.6    52.1
  % 
 
*     =      ;   
=     ;
  =     .

: , U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration,
      .

                                          58



 IV:                         

 IV.1:                     
 ""  (  1997 .)


                                                           
                    .          ($  1000                   "                
                   ..)          .)          ($ .)        "                
                                                          ($ million)     
                                                                          
                                                                             %
Åâðîïà               121          88.5       10,707         10,707          100

ÑÍÃ                   64          76.8       4,937           2,855           58

Ïî Ðîññèè            301          47.0       11,536          1,730           15

                     486                     27,180         15,292           56

: B. Pinto, V. Drebentsov and A. Morozov. Give Growth and Macroeconomic
      Stability in Russia a Chance: Harden Budgets by Eliminating Non-Payments. The
      Economics of Transition, (  ).




 IV. 2:                 


                                                                           ,  % 

                                    ($ .)                ($ .)

      1993                             1.4                  1.4                   1.4

      1994                             1.6                  1.7                   1.3

      1995                             3.4                  3.7                   1.8

      1996                             3.6                  3.7                   1.8

      1997                             3.3                  3.5                   1.6

      Total                            12.7                 13.5

: B. Pinto, V. Drebentsov and A. Morozov. Give Growth and Macroeconomic
      Stability in Russia a Chance: Harden Budgets by Eliminating Non-payments. The
      Economics of Transition, (  )

                                         59




II. :  



 IV. 3:                  
(   )

                                     1996                 1997

                                      100                 100

                                      20                   20

 

                                      11                    6

 

                                      49                   62

                                      20                   12

: B. Pinto, V. Drebentsov and A. Morozov. Give Growth and Macroeconomic
     Stability in Russia a Chance: Harden Budgets by Eliminating Non-payments. The
     Economics of Transition,   




 IV.4:                   
 


                                                                  ,  % 

                               ($ .)             ($ .)

         1993                     3.0               2.0             2.5
         1994                     3.9               2.8             2.6
         1995                     3.7               4.8             2.2
         1996                     3.5               5.9             2.4
         1997                     0.5               6.7             1.6
         Total                    14.6              22.2
: B. Pinto, V. Drebentsov and A. Morozov. Give Growth and Macroeconomic
    Stability in Russia a Chance: Harden Budgets by Eliminating Non-payments. The
    Economics of Transition,   

                             60

 V:             1997 .


                                            
                                              
                                   (  .      (..)
       (%                          .)
            .             
       ))                 (
                            %)
                  9.3          2.4     40.4    3340.0
                  1.5          0.7      1.3     283.6
.                42.0         24.3   8689.4   62847.0
                 46.1         36.6   30674.1  121908.7
                  0.0          0.0      0.0       0.0
                 32.5         25.7   39405.2  188383.2

: International Energy Agency

                        61

 VI:            1990 
  1995-1999 .


            .     - /          *  
                                           
1990 1073,8 625,9 18,8  96,4  103,8  144,7  84,2
1995 840,4  440,2 12,4  88,6  65,2   150,5  83,5
1996 827,7  424,9 11,2  85,9  64,9   156,3  84,5
1997 814,4  421,4 10,3  78,1  63,5   156,7  84,4
1998 809,1  412,0 9,1   75,0  60,0   159,8  93,2
1999 832,1  430,3 9,0   72,0  60,6   164,0  96,2
*   ,  " "  75-80%
 "" 

: 

                                        62




 VII:                    Bank/GEF


 VII. 1:         /GEF  

                                                               
                                                            (. . .)

1993            Oil Rehabilitation I                           610.00
1994            Oil Rehabilitation II                          500.00
1995            Emergency Oil Spill Recovery and               99.00
                Mitigation
1995            Gas Dist. Rehab. and Energy Efficiency         70.00
1996            Coal Sector Restructuring Implementation       500.00
1996            Coal Sector Restructuring Implementation       25.00
1997            Electricity Sector Reform Support              40.00
1997            Coal Sector Adjustment II                      800.00
2000            Coal and Forestry Sector Guarantee Facility    200.00
Total           9 Loans/Guarantees *                          2,849.00
*        

:  




 VII. 2:           ( )

          
                   
     1000                            840
      800
          610
      600      500           525

      400
                      169                              200
      200

       0
          1993 1994  1995    1996   1997  1998  1999   2000

                                

                                  63


                                                  ANNEX VII


 VII. 3:        

                                               
                           , .                   
                           .                     
                                                2000 .),
                                                (. .)
Oil rehabilitation I        610,0   15  1993­    414,0
                                    31  1998
Oil rehabilitation II       500,0   25 1995­     346,5
                                    21  2000
Emergency oil spill         99,0    29  1995­    82,6
recovery and mitigation             30  2001
Coal sector adjustment      500,0   2 1996­      500,0
loan                                31  1997
Second coal sector          800,0   19  1997­    650,0
adjustment loan                     31  2001
Coal sector restructuring   25,0    25  1996­    13,7
implementation assistance           31  2001
Energy efficiency           70,0    26  1996­    15,2
                                    30  2001
Electricity sector reform   40,0    12  1998­     --
support                             31  2001
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