WORLDBANKGROUP GQ G UD MR AS1A(ECA) EUROPE ANDCENTRAL AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS RI5K PROF] LES BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $13.7 billion* G eo rgila 0.Population 3.9 million* evcs ntrso omlzdana vrg G eargia's population and econo- t 0pretdrvdfo eorgia-to 70 percent derived from services, in terms of normalized annual aveage my are exposed to earthquakes mos of most the remainder rgneaed fterm.in generated fetdGP GDP. The of affected o h largest ags circles ice and with earthquakes aL floods,iby byidsranagiutrmaig industy and agriculture making rpeettegetsnomlzdrs.AnlAvaeoffecdGP represent the greatest normalized risk. aal risk th posig posing the greater of greterriskofa a high igha small contribution. Georgia's per asalcnrbto.Gogaspr The Ters risk is estimated using flood and setmtduigfodad1 1 impact, lower probability event. The nowcapita cpt GD a 350 was $3,500. atqaers earthquake risk models. oes model results for present-day risk ThsmpdslyGDbypoicin Tetbedslsteprvcsat1ERHUK show shown in this in hisriskprofle risk profile are based This map displays re bsed Goga GDP by province in ihgetrclrstr- Thtaldipysheroncst gets omlzdrs o ahprl aGeorgia, on population and gross domestic with greater color satura- 0Ngiil producttiD)estimate estimates for 2015.. tion indicating greater GDP within a tinindiaingraerGDPwtia I Inrltvtrm,ssh ninheab, product (GDP) the estimated The atprovince. damage caused by The blue circles indicate the prvneThblecrlsidctth lte term,le dpaysithe atreatnest rikTeeiathg thprvneagetstikoflods r 0 Just hrisk historical events is inflated over hlf of Georga's to 2015 populaton rikoexeinigfodanth4 of experiencing floods and the orebthelst nlzd erthqkes Tbls,adteoetgetstikofGP(linsf Tahpeils. pp[to n O US dollars. S sorange circles the risk of earthquakes i eh -LnnuahumieandeKofmAf(lower)GDPa(e) country'sce aDPrewtesariprooifloodli with US$13.7 just over half of Georgia's closetStreatestfEriskTof population billioniin2015, o ohfod n atqae sTiii IIeni lives 1100 trmseasishownintheptabl EARTHQUAKE in urban environments.reI The tee country's GDP was approximately US$13.7 billion in 2015, with closeAbhaautRe.USINFDATO 0andtGDP$io KakheiAbkhaz AFFECTEDGDP (%) SE . Rep. FFECTEDGlPli%)sLACK Thereiaihibehocorre[atio Racha-Leckhumi anopulation Zemo~~~~~1=.5 eatqae sKvemo Kartly Msht-Mint In abso-At.Re. Kv Kl between thet MtskhRacha-irnehi (upper)lSwer)ti 2iZeno aneai Samtskhe-jvakhetir2Samtsahd-aZekhetup A i Mrsktianet 2 Ka ti 61 B LA CKiSE cS -Leche huand Kvemo (pper) Svaneti Sha-tarti 6 Mketateti i ZIeet (upr va ib Kvm atiIAdjara Aut. Rep. GuiA Kakheti DR Geo giaWORLDBANKGROUP ROPE ANDEENTRAL A51A(ECA) E|G he most devastating floods in When a flood has a 10-year return to happen at all over a long period of The annual avenge population affect- Georgia since it gained its in- period, it means the probability of time. ed by flooding in Georgia is about dependence in 1991 occurred occurrence ofa flood of that magni- 100,000 and the annual average in 1997. In that year, Georgia was hit tude or greater is 10 percent per year If the 10- and 100-year bars are the affected GDP about $400 million. by two floods, which together caused A 100-year flood has a probability same height, then the impact of a 10 Within the various provinces, the 10- 7 fatalities and over $40 million in of occurrence oft percent per year. year event is as large as that ofa 100 and 100-year impacts do not differ damage. Flooding in 2012 caused less This means that over a long period of year event, and the annual average of much, so relatively frequent floods damage ($3 million), but it affected time, a flood of that magnitude will, affected GDP is dominated by events have large impacts on these avenges. over 100,000 people. Flooding in on average, occur once every 100 that happen relatively frequenly. 2013 affected close to 25,000 people years. It does not mean a 100-year If the impact of a 100-year event is but also caused limited damage. flood will occur exactiy once every much greater than that of a 10-year Affected GOP (%)for Other floods occurred in 1995, 2004, 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a event, then less frequent events make 10 and 100year return periods 2005, and 2011, with fewer than flood of any return period to occur a larger contribution to the annual 2% 2,500 people affected and less than more than once in the same year, or avenge of affected GDP. Thus, even $4 million in damage per event. to appear in consecutive years, or not if a province's annual affected GDP average of Affected GOP According to a 2015 World Bank seems small, less frequent and more Annual Post Disaster Needs Assessment intense events can still have large (in press), the June 2015 flooding impacts. time.i 10-year 100-year in Tbilisi caused 19 fatalities (in 100 yers. Infact,itSisnossibllforn addition, three people are still miss- ing), affected over 700 people, and caused over $20 million in damages. Ti All these events highlight Georgia's vulnenebility to floods. They are not always devastating, but they follow eafch other quccly aned have a large cumulative effect on the countthersa BLACK SEA This map depicts the impact of flood- ing on provinces' GDPs, represented t ht.,fini as percentages of their annual aver- age GDPs affected, with greater colorimrnhcKrti<-. saturation indicating higher percent- ages. The bar graphs represent GDP Aa" affected by floods with return periods ae LML hi Kakheti of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The horizontal line across the bars also shows the annual avegge ofo GDP affected by floods. Gei WORLDBANKGROUP GROP E AE CENTRALA5IA(ECA) eorgia's worst earthquake years, or not to happen at all over a The annual average population affect- since 1900 occurred in long period of time. ed by earthquakes in Georgia is about 1991, with a magnitude of 300,000 and the annual average 7. It caused over 250 fatalities and If the 10- and 100-year bars are the affected GDP about $900 million. The close to $3 billion in damage. An same height, then the impact of a 10 annual averages of fatalities and cap- earthquake in 2002 affected nearly year event is as large as that of a 100 ital losses caused by earthquakes are 20,000 people and caused about year event, and the annual average of about 500 and about $500 million, $500 million in damage. The impact affected GDP is dominated by events respectively The fatalities and capital of earthquakes in 1992 and 2009 was that happen relatively frequently. losses caused by more intense, less less extensive. If the impact of a 100-year event is frequent events can be substantial- much greater than that of a 10-year ly large r than th e ann ual ave rage s. This map depicts the impact of event, then less frequent events make For example, an earthquake with Affected GDP for earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, larger contributions to the annual av- a 0.4 percent annual probability of 10 and 100-year return periods represented as percentages of their erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a occurrence (a 250-year return period One h[ock= 10% 100 annual average GDPs affected, with province's annual affected GDP seems event) could cause about 20,000 greater color saturation indicating small, less frequent and more intense fatalities and $7 billion in capital loss Annual Average of Affected GDP higher percentages. The bar graphs events can still have large impacts. (about 50 percent of GDP). Annual average represent GDP affected by earth- quakes with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (lack). The horizontal line across the bars also shows the annual average of GoP affected by earthquakes. domiate byD When an earthquake has a 10-year return period, it means the probabil- ity of occurrence of an earthquake oef that magnitude or greater is 10 n percent per year A 100-year earth-BLCSE quake has a p robability of ccu rren ce osfl pelrcent pfer year. Thmis mieans that over a long period of time, an earthquake of that magnitude will, on average, once evefry 100 yea rs. accuvr It does not mean a 100-year earth- quake will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for an earthquake of any return period to occur more than once in the same Frieisi year, oer to appear in con ecutive ANDCENTRAL GeogiaWORLDBANKGROUP RO"" E|GDR A51A(ECA) EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES potential the provinces with the T he rose for diagrams greatest annualshow average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital Smk JkhAbkhazia Aut Re 0 Kakh 5 loss occurs in Tbilisi, which is not surprising, given the economic importance of the province. EARTHQUAKE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP Taffected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 9 80 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different 8 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected 2080 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped hand depicts 6 ;2 2the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 980 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if 5 40 Georgia had experienced a 100-year return period flood 4 o event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an esti- 3 mated $1 billion. In 2080, however, affected GDP from the 2015 2 20 same type of event would range from about $6 billion to 1 _2015 about $8 billion. If Georgia experienced a 250-year earth- quake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been 10 50 100 20 10 50 100 250 about $10 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP fmm the same Return period (years) Return period (years) type of event would range from about $50 billion to about ........ $70 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and the Probability() Probability (increase in exposed assets. All historical data on floods, unless otherwise noted, and earthquakes are from, respectively, D.Guha-Sapir, R.Below, and Ph. Hoyols, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium). www.emdat.be, and the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA) doi:10.7289/V5TD9V7K. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.