The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) REPORT NO.: RES40726 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF EMPLOYMENT SUPPORT PROJECT FOR SYRIANS UNDER TEMPORARY PROTECTION AND TURKISH CITIZENS APPROVED ON DECEMBER 8, 2017 TO THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Regional Vice President: Anna Bjerde Country Director: Auguste Tano Kouame Regional Director: Fadia M. Saadah Practice Manager/Manager: Cem Mete Task Team Leader(s): Mirey Ovadiya, Sirma Demir Seker i The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ALMP Active Labor Market Programs ATP Applied Training Programs ISKUR The Turkish Employment Agency MoFLSS Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Services PDO Project Development Objective SuTP Syrians under Temporary Protection 1 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P161670 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Approval Date Current Closing Date 08-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2020 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Services,Turkish Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Services Employment Agency Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The objective of the Project is to improve the employability of Syrians under Temporary Protection (“SuTP”) as well as Turkish citizens residing in selected localities. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing (US$, Millions) Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed TF-A5478 21-Dec-2017 21-Dec-2017 21-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 53.63 35.42 16.41 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No 2 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING 1. The project implementation progress and progress towards achievement of the development objective are rated satisfactory. After some initial delays with setting up required administrative systems and preparation of provincial offices, project implementation has moved swiftly and steadily since March 2019, even with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. As of mid-December 2020, 68 percent of the grant is disbursed. Implementation has advanced evenly in all four provinces: Adana, Istanbul, Sanliurfa and Gaziantep. Total target project beneficiary numbers have already been surpassed despite COVID-19- related economic slow-down and restrictions. Over 23,000 Turkish and Syrians have been placed in Active Labor Market Programs (ALMPs), compared to a target of 14,800. Out of these, 17,867 (34 percent above the target) are in applied training (ATP) programs, 3,198 (54 percent of the target) are in language training programs, and 2,056 (34.7 percent of the target) are in skills training programs. Out of a total of 21,000 beneficiaries1, on average 32 percent are women (higher than the 30 percent project target) and over 47 percent are between 16-24 years and about 80 percent between 16-34 years compared to a target of 60 percent.2 In this period, there has also been relatively good progress made under the institutional support component. In addition, there are no outstanding audits for the project. The Project Implementation Unit (PIU) received a waiver for the first audit for 2018 due to the small number of transactions during 2018. The second audit, for 2019, was due in June 2020, but was postponed to December 31, 2020 due to COVID-19. The PIU is on track to submit the audit by the end of the month, and there have been no financial management issues thus far. 2. Despite good implementation progress under difficult circumstances, the Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Services (MoFLSS) and the Turkish Employment Agency (ISKUR) will require additional time to complete the active labor market programs (ALMP). As noted previously, several indicator targets have been surpassed. Following a hiatus during March-July 2020 due to COVID-restrictions, all ALMPs (ATP, skills training, and language training) have resumed in a face-to-face fashion in July 2020 following COVID-19 protocols. However, the economy and labor demand are still under distress because of the COVID-19 crisis and some key activities, including the procurement of the IT system improvements (due to disruptions in tendering processes and supply chain issues) within the Ministry, have been delayed as a result. In line with the recent government request, it is estimated that the project activities and disbursements will require an additional 12 months to be completed. More specifically, within the next 12 months, ISKUR-Turkish Employment Agency is targeting to complete the ongoing ATP, skills training and language training programs and possibly open additional programs on demand from employers and complete the remaining activities under the institutional support component. 3. During the last year, there has been greater demand for applied training programs (ATP) and less for other ALMPs offered under the project. Employers like and use the ATP program extensively due to its economic advantages. The program is also beneficial to jobseekers, giving an opportunity to both Syrians and Turkish to work in a formal environment and acclimate to the labor market. With an extension of the project closing date and as economic activity recovers, it is expected that there will be additional demand for ATP given that many employers will be facing financial constraints for new hiring. For this reason, ISKUR has requested to reallocate more resources under the ALMP budget towards ATP and away from cash-for-work (transition to labor market program -TLMP) and skills training programs. During the implementation of the project, ATP has been found to be the most efficient program compared to TLMP and skills training programs in terms of enhancing employability and labor market adjustment of in particular Syrian 1 Some individuals have participated in more than one program which is why the number of beneficiaries (21,000 as of October 2020) is lower than the number of people placed in programs. 2 A breakdown is not available for 16-29-year bracket; however, inferring from the high percentage who fall between 16-34, we assume the share is higher than 60 percent. 3 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) refugees. ISKUR has also requested reallocation of funds from the language training and vocational training programs. The demand for language training programs has been less than originally expected. Jobs and vocational counselors have identified more beneficiaries who have working knowledge of Turkish and who have been placed directly into ATP. Also, ISKUR has been more selective about language program beneficiaries, trying to ensure that those who are more willing to work and look for a job get placed on the language training programs. Demand for vocational training service provision has also faced some difficulties. In line with these implementation experiences, the cash-for-work program will be cancelled and other ALMP targets will be revised. 4. To accommodate the increased demand from employers for ATP and unit cost adjustments to the ALMPs, ISKUR has proposed a reallocation of funds across components. Specifically, ISKUR proposes that 2.9 percent of the total grant amount be reallocated across components. In line with the increased demand for ATP, increased number of beneficiaries, and increases in unit cost per beneficiary3, the total allocation for Component 1- Employment Services and Active Labor Market Programs will increase from 38.30 to 39.6 million Euros, and the allocation for the ISKUR part of Component 2- Institutional Support -- will decrease from 5.95 to 4.65 million Euros. In addition to the high demand for ATP, there are unused funds for some activities (e.g., training for ISKUR staff) due to COVID-19 which would also be reallocated from component 2 to component 1. 5. Finally, ISKUR ALMP volume and monthly cash flow requirements calls for reconsideration of the Designated Account ceiling amount. ISKUR has requested to double the designated account ceiling amount from 5 million Euro to 10 million Euro to better plan implementation and manage its cash flows. This amount is proposed based on monthly expenditure trends over the last 18 months. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 6. The following changes are proposed as part of project restructuring: a. The TLMP (or cash-for-work program) will be cancelled. b. The project closing date will be extended from December 31, 2020 to December 30, 2021. c. The ISKUR Designated Account ceiling will be increased from 5 million EUR to 10 million EUR. d. Funds will be realloacated from Component 2 to Component 1 for ISKUR- implemented activities. e. Indicators and targets in the Results framework will be adjusted as per below:  The ATP program placement target will be increased from 13,320 to 19,000 of which 12,000 are SuTP and 7,000 are Turkish Citizens.  The skills training program placement target will be reduced from 5,920 to 3,070. The revised target is also divided equally between SuTP and Turkish Citizens.  The language training program placement target will be reduced from 5,920 to 3,350.  Total number of people placed in ALMPs will increase from 14,800 to 23,000 of which 15,000 are SuTP and 8,000 are Turkish Citizens.  Total number of assessment and counseling services to increase from 14,800 to 23,530 of which 16,000 are SuTP and 7,530 are Turkish Citizens. 3Unit cost of beneficiary depends on the minimum wage figures which are updated annually by a Committee comprised of the employer and employee associations. 4 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670)  “Number of ISKUR-registered SuTP placed in TLMP” and “Number of ISKUR-registered Turkish citizens residing in selected localities placed in TLMP” will be removed from the Results Framework 7. Project risk ratings have also been revised in line with the changing country circumstances and implementation experience. All risk ratings have been revised downwards to reflect the current country conditions. Steady progress in implementation has been the result of successful management of the technical, institutional, fiduciary and safeguards aspects. Nevertheless, an additional risk under the “other” category has been added to factor in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This risk is assessed as moderate considering the opening of the economy and current state of ISKUR operations in the four project provinces. III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ PBCs ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ 5 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE COMPONENTS Current Current Proposed Proposed Cost Action Component Name Component Name Cost (US$M) (US$M) Employment Services and Employment Services and Active 40468680.00 Revised Active Labor Market Programs 46234782.00 Labor Market Programs (ALMP) (ALMP) Institutional Support for Delivery Institutional Support for of Employment Services and 7708320.00 Revised Delivery of Employment 6830138.25 ALMP Services and ALMP 48,177,000. TOTAL 53,064,920.25 00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Original Revised Proposed Proposed Deadline Ln/Cr/Tf Status Closing Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications TF-A5478 Effective 30-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2021 30-Apr-2022 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_REALLOCATION _TABLE REALLOCATION BETWEEN DISBURSEMENT CATEGORIES Financing % Current Allocation Actuals + Committed Proposed Allocation (Type Total) Current Proposed TF-A5478-001 | Currency: EUR 6 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) iLap Category Sequence No: 1 Current Expenditure Category: G,non-CS,CS,ALMP pymts Part 1 38,300,000.00 24,823,336.70 39,600,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 2 Current Expenditure Category: G,non-CS,SW,CS,TR, OC Part 2a 5,950,000.00 2,102,101.79 4,650,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 3 Current Expenditure Category: G,non-CS,SW,CS,TR, OC Part 2b 1,200,000.00 119,204.19 1,200,000.00 100.00 100.00 Total 45,450,000.00 27,044,642.68 45,450,000.00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes Year Current Proposed 2018 0.00 0.00 2019 2,000,000.00 4,000,000.00 2020 30,000,000.00 25,450,000.00 2021 13,450,000.00 11,000,000.00 2022 0.00 5,000,000.00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_SORT_TABLE SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Rating at Approval Current Rating Political and Governance  Substantial  Moderate Macroeconomic  Substantial  Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies  Substantial  Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program  Moderate  Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and  Substantial  Moderate Sustainability 7 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) Fiduciary  Substantial  Moderate Environment and Social  Moderate  Moderate Stakeholders  Moderate  Low Other  Moderate Overall  Substantial  Moderate . 8 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) . Results framework COUNTRY: Turkey Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens Project Development Objectives(s) The objective of the Project is to improve the employability of Syrians under Temporary Protection (“SuTP”) as well as Turkish citizens residing in selected localities. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 Improve employability of SUTP 1. Number of ISKUR-registered SuTP placed in at least one ALMP (either: language training, skills 0.00 2,000.00 5,400.00 7,600.00 15,000.00 training courses, and ATP) (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 3. Percentage of ISKUR-registered youth SuTP placed in language 0.00 30.00 30.00 60.00 training, skills training courses, and ATP. (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised 9 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4. Percentage of ISKUR-registered female SuTP placed in language 0.00 15.00 15.00 30.00 training, skills training courses, and ATP (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Improve employability of Turkish citizens 2. Number of ISKUR-registered Turkish citizens residing in selected localities placed in at least one 0.00 2,400.00 5,000.00 600.00 8,000.00 ALMP (either: skills training courses, or ATP) (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 Employment Services and Active Labor Market Programs (ALMP) 1. Number of SuTP registered in 0.00 3,800.00 7,000.00 6,200.00 17,000.00 ISKUR (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 10 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 2. Number of Turkish citizens residing in selected localities 0.00 4,800.00 6,000.00 0.00 10,800.00 registered in ISKUR (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 3. Number of ISKUR-registered SuTP benefitting from assessment 0.00 2,400.00 5,000.00 8,600.00 16,000.00 (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 4. Number of ISKUR-registered SuTP benefitting from job search 0.00 3,000.00 4,400.00 8,600.00 16,000.00 skills sessions and counseling services (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 5. Number of ISKUR-registered Turkish citizens residing in selected localities benefitting from job 0.00 3,000.00 4,400.00 130.00 7,530.00 search skills sessions and counseling services (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 6. Number of ISKUR-registered SuTP placed in language trainings 0.00 1,500.00 1,850.00 0.00 3,350.00 (Number) 11 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 Action: This indicator has been Revised 7. Number of ISKUR-registered SuTP placed in ATP program 0.00 2,000.00 4,660.00 5,340.00 12,000.00 (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 8. Number of ISKUR-registered Turkish citizens residing in selected 0.00 2,000.00 4,660.00 5,400.00 7,000.00 localities placed in ATP (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 9. Number of ISKUR-registered SuTP placed in skills training 0.00 500.00 1,035.00 0.00 1,535.00 courses (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 10. Number of ISKUR-registered Turkish citizens residing in selected 582.00 500.00 453.00 0.00 1,535.00 localities placed in skills training courses (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 11. Number of ISKUR-registered 0.00 0.00 740.00 0.00 0.00 SuTP placed in TLMP (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion 12 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 12. Number of ISKUR-registered Turkish citizens residing in selected 0.00 0.00 740.00 0.00 0.00 localities (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Institutional Support for Delivery of Employment Services and ALMP 13. Establishment of project No Yes Yes implementation units (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Revised 14. Number of capacity building activities, trainings and informative meetings for staff of ISKUR and 0.00 30.00 10.00 0.00 40.00 MoLSS (including provincial offices) (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 15. Number of contractual ISKUR 0.00 140.00 0.00 0.00 41.00 staff hired (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 16. Number of information dissemination and communication activities towards SuTP and Turkish 0.00 30.00 10.00 0.00 40.00 citizens residing in selected localities regarding employment 13 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 services and programs available for them. (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised 17. Adjustment of ISKUR IT system to register SuTP in the ISKUR No Yes Yes provincial offices. (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Revised 18. Establishment of a central database for SuTP and Turkish citizens residing in selected localities to track the services No Yes Yes provided to them. (a monitoring system) (this system should also be linked (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Revised 19. Implementation progress No Yes Yes Yes Yes reports submitted (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Revised 20. Percentage of grievances registered by SuTP and Turkish 0.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 citizens residing in selected localities related to employment 14 The World Bank Employment Support Project for Syrians Under Temporary Protection and Turkish Citizens (P161670) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 services that are actually addressed (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised IO Table SPACE Click here to enter text. 15