Discussion Draft AGP- 11 RETURN To ~UEWA iNf aRWJT tIfuICEWCER TOWARD GREATER FOOD SECURITY FOR INDONESIA An Overview of Issues and Prospects Country Case Study Report prepared as part of the Food Security Policy Work Program AGREP Division Working Paper No. 11 Economics & Policy Division Agriculture & Rural Development Department December 1977 TOWARD GREATER FOOD SECURITY FOR INDONESIA An Overview of Issues and Projects Table of Contents Page Summary and Conclusions I. BACKGROUND 1 Land Resources 1 Population 2 The Agricultural Sector 3 Agricultural Policy 5 Nutrition 8 II. METHODOLOGY 9 III. PROJECTIONS 10 Consumption 10 Production 12 The Domestic Gap 13 Sensitivity 14 IV. MAJOR POLICY ISSUES 15 V. OTHER POLICY ISSUES 20 ANNEX 1. BASE DATA ANNEX 2. METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTIONS List of Tables Table 1 Land Potential for Agriculture & Land Use by Regions (1974) Table 2 Population Projections by Age Group Table 3 1970 Population Distribution Table 4 Population Distribution and Density Table 5 Agricultural Sector's Share in the Economy Table 6 Farm Size Distribution by Income Group Table 7 Calorie Conversion Table by Region & Province Table 8 Daily Per Capita Calorie Consumption Table 9 Daily Per Capita.Cereal Calorie Consumption Table 10 Daily Per Capita Cassava Calorie Intake Table 11 Monthly Average Per Capita Expenditure by Expenditure Group Table 12 Monthly Average Per Capita Expenditure on Food Table 13 Proportion of Total Expenditure Spent on Food Table 14 Human Energy Requirements in Calories . Table 15 Calorie Deficit Population with Varied Food Baskets Table 16 Malnourished Population Assuming Poor & Mode Income Group Food Basket Table 17 Projected Total Food Needs, Market Demand & Production, Low Income Growth Rate Projection Table 18 Projected Total Food Needs, Market Demand & Production, High Income Growth Rate Projection Table 19 Projected Total Food Needs and Market Demand Table 20 Projected Nutritional Gap in Grain Equivalents (1985) Table 21 Projected Nutritional Gap in Grain Equivalents (1995) Table 22 Projected Malnourished Population (1985) Table 23 Projected Malnourished Population (1995) Table 24 Projected Income Distribution Effects on Calorie Consumption: 1985 Table 25 Projected Income Distribution Effects on Calorie Consumption: 1995 Table 26 Projected Price Change Effects on Calorie Consumption: 1985 Table 27 Projected Price Change Effects on Calorie Consumption: 1995 Table 28 Projected Income Distribution Effects on Calorie Consumption (as % of Calorie Requirement) Table 29 Projected Price Change Effects on Calorie Consumption (as % of Calorie Requirement) Table 30 Least Cost Diet (Per Capita Per Day) List of Figures Figure 1 Per Capita Production, Imports and Domestic Use of Grains. Figure 2 Projected Total Food Needs, Market Demand and Production Figure 3 Projected Malnourished Population 1985 Figure 4 Projected Malnourished Population 1995 Figure 5 Projected Nutritional Gap in Grain Equivalents 1985 Figure 6 Projected Nutritional Gap in Grain Equivalents 1995 Figure 7 Projected Income Distribution Effects on Calorie Consumption 1985 Figure 8 Projected Income Distribution Effects on Calorie Consumption 1995 Figure 9 Projected Price Change Effects on Calorie Consumption 1985 Figure 10 Projected Price Change Effects on Calorie Consumption 1995 Figure 11 Projected Food Needs and Market Demand 1985 Figure 12 Projected Food Needs and Market Demand 1995 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i. In Indonesia the most visible food security problem - rapid rises in retail prices - has been avoided with costly rice imports, estimated to reach 2.8 million tons in 1977. However, the less obvious problem of malnutrition is serious. Over half the children under two years of age are 25%-40% below the WHO norm body weight; infant mortality resulting from protein-calorie malnutrition ranges from 110-150 per 1,000; 65% of the total population suffers from iron anemia. This paper reviews these general issues of food and nutrition. It should be seen as an interim study which draws partly on advanced reports from the FY78 rural sector work program of the East Asia and Pacific Projects Department.l/ It examines Indonesia's resources, its agriculture, and its nutritional problems and then presents food projections for 1985 and 1995 which focus on the size of the malnourished population and the size of the domestic food gap. The paper closes with a discussion of policy changes which might bring improved food security to Indonesia by 1995. ii. The projections show that if Indonesia's GDP were to continue its real growth rate of nearly 8% 2 per annum, while maintaining the relative prices and income distribution of 1970, the malnourished population could decline from about 80 million people in 1970 to less than 30 million in 1985 and 6 million in 1995 - only 3% of the population. However, under these same conditions the domestic food gap would grow from a deficit of just over 1 million ton grain equivalents (TGE) in 1970 to 6 million TGE in 1985 and nearly 8 TGE in 1995. Sensitivity analysis shows these results to be little affected by changes in income distribution, but very sensitive to changes in prices and income growth rates. 1/ A draft report integrating the work of four sub-sector missions will be available in June 1978. 2/ The current best estimate of the Country Programs Division. -ii- iii. The study recommends two policies to reduce the projected food gaps. First, more effective use of the price mechanism could influence the pattern of food consumption in Indonesia. While protecting the welfare of the poor with imports of low quality rice (e.g., 35% broken), the prices of medium quality rice might be raised to world market levels and the prices of the best quality rice allowed to rise above world market prices, with the cost- price surplus going to help finance imports for the poor. This would shift consumption towards domestically-produced foods for which large increases in production are still possible. The second policy focuses on employment. Java's traditional system of allocating employment rights in agriculture re- quires that efforts to stimulate agricultural growth through technological change be accompanied by programs to accelerate the growth of non-farm rural employment. The paper concludes with a discussion of the effectiveness of Indonesia's system of agricultural support services. Indonesia's food security may hinge. on the ability of the system to reach small farmers - the 50% who own less than 0.5 ha. I. BACKGROUND Land Resources 1.1 Indonesia, the world's largest and most populous archipelago com- prising over 13,000 islands, stretches 5,000 km from the tip of Malaysia to Papua New Guinea. Many of Indonesia's current policy issues derive from the ecological differences between Central Indonesia - Java, Madura and Bali - and the Other Islands - Sumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and the islands of Eastern Indonesia. I/ Rich volcanic soils from the spine of volcanoes down the centers of Java and Bali have formed a fertile environment with high yields and high population concentrations. In the Other Islands highly erodable yellow podzolic soils subject to serious weed infestation once the vegetation cover is removed have contributed to low population densities and a subsistence agriculture. 1.2 Approximately 14.2 million ha of Indonesia's arable land is culti- vated and harvested for food crops, of which 9.2 million are on the islands of Central Indonesia. Cultivated lands here account for 70% of the total land area and in many years the cropping intensity is said to exceed ecologi- cally safe limits, particularly in the densely populated areas. Recent data suggest that nearly all the land classified as marginal has been brought into production. On the other hand, in the Other Islands where only 25% of the- 1/ See C. Geertz, Agricultural Involution: The Process of Ecological Change in Indonesia (Berkeley, California, 1964). - 2 - 40 million ha. of land suitable or marginally suitable for cultivation is currently in use, great increases in food production are technically possi- ble, provided effective agricultural support services can be provided eco- nomically (see Table 1). Population 1.3 Indonesia's population was recorded as 119.2 million by the 1971 census, making it the fifth largest in the world. By 1976 the population 1/ had reached a level of about 136 million. Between 1961 and 1971 the annual population growth rate was 2.1%; since then it has been estimated to be about 2.2% per annum. However, preliminary results from a recently completed inter- censal survey indicate a decline in fertility. But even under the most opti- mistic assumptions the population will be about 195 million in the year 1995 (see Table 2). 1.4 The most striking demographic characteristic of Indonesia is its uneven population distribution. In Central Indonesia 64% of the total popu- lation live on Java-Madura which accounts for less than 7% of the land area. 2 In 1971 it had an average density of 565 persons per km , almost twice that of the densely-populated countries in Northwest Europe - Netherlands (326) or Belgium (318) - and higher than that of Bangladesh (510). In the Special 2 Province of Yogyakarta the density reached nearly 800 persons per km . In contrast the rates for the Other Islands are very low (Table 4). Kalimantan, which comprises 27% of Indonesia's land area, has only 4% of the population and a density of 9 persons per km . Similarly, the 1971 census recorded only 1/ For the most recent description see Indonesia: Appraisal of a Second Population, Report No. 1534b-IND. -3- 17% of the population as living in urban areas. This relatively low degree of urbanization, coupled with a high population in Central Indonesia, results in heavy population pressure on arable land. The Agricultural Sector 1/ 1.5 The importance of agriculture, in terms of its contribution to total GDP, has declined steadily over the last 15 years from about 55% to 30%. The decline in the relative importance of agriculture has been asso- ciated with significant increases in the growth of the mining, manufacturing, construction and transport, and communications sectors (see Table 5). Never- theless, excluding income generated by the oil industry, which provides few benefits to most households, agriculture and associated rural activities probably account -for some 45% of GDP. 1.6 With the rising importance of oil exports, the importance of the rural sector as a contributor to total export earnings has also been declin- ing. During the years when the value of oil exports was increasing rapidly, the aggregate value of rural exports declined. Despite the drop in the value of lumber and rubber exports (due largely to lower prices), they remain as the most prominent rural exports with palm oil increasing in importance. 1.7 Agriculture still dominates the life and welfare of the Indonesian people. It supports some 80% of the country's total population and provides part or full-time employment for about 65% of the country's total labor force. Moreover, the potential of agriculture, forestry and fishing to provide grow- ing employment opportunities and the extent to which other rural activities 1/ This summarizes Indonesia: Agricultural and Rural Development Sector Memorandum Draft, September 28, 1977. - 4 - can contribute to the utilization of the enormous labor force is the subject of anxious debate in Indonesia. 1.8 Indonesian agriculture is dominated by 14.4 million smallholders cultivating field crops on some 14.2 million ha; there are also about 1,800 estates (concentrated in North and South Sumatera and West Java) covering about 2.2 million ha. In Java 80% of all farms are less than I ha and 30% are less than 0.25 ha 1/ (see Table 6). Smallholders dominate the produc- tion of annual crops, of which rice is by far the most important. Estate enterprises account for most of the production of perennial crops such as palm oil and tea. The important exception is rubber production, some 70% of which originates from smallholders. 1.9 Agricultural activities in Indonesia are, not surprisingly, dis- tributed broadly according to the quality of the available natural resources. About 70% of the quantity and value of field crops are produced in Central Indonesia. On the other hand some 70% of the tree crop production is to be found in the Other Islands, with Sumatera accounting for about 85% of rubber production and almost all of the palm oil. 1.10 While the relative importance of the agricultural sector in the economy is expected to continue to decline, the structure of agriculture is likely to change with a greater degree of part-time farming, more diversified farming and a vertical integration of production and processing activities. 1/ A recent study estimates that the official census on which these figures are based omitted 2 million farms which were excluded from the census because they were too small - less than 0.05 hectares. -5- Despite these changes the traditional elements of the sector will continue to be important, but with an increasing emphasis on development in the Other Islands. Policy 1/ 1.11 The Government's first five-year plan (Repelita I - 1969 to 1974) concentrated on increasing agricultural output, with the main emphasis on the expansion of rice production. During this period the volume of rice output increased at a rate of 3.5% to 4.0% per year. At the same time the economy as a whole grew at an average rate of about 7% per annum. 1.12 Encouraged by the steady growth of rice production and the high total growth rate, the Government moved towards giving increasing priority in Repelita II (1974 to 1979) to employment creation and equitable income distribution between regions and between occupational groups. Within the agricultural sector the Government's objectives are achievement of self- sufficiency in rice, improved employment and incomes in rural areas, in- creased transmigration from Central Indonesia to the Other Islands, and increased production of exportables. 1.13 In its identifiable investment planning the Government has allo- cated about one eighth of its current development expenditures to agricul- ture and, of that amount, has used most for the food crop and estate sub- sectors. Nearly half of the US$4 billion rural investment budget from 1/ See IBRD Report No. 1187-IND, "Public Sector Investment and Financial Resources," May 24, 1976, for a discussion of these issues and the GOI investment program. A more up-to-date examination of the Indonesian economy and government policy is contained in IBRD Report No. 1516-IND, "Indonesia: Recent Developments and Medium-Term Perspectives," March 8, 1977. - 6 - Repelita II is nominally allocated to increasing food crop production. The program includes irrigation development, river control, swampland development and research and extension, but with a heavy emphasis on rice and much less support to increase production of upland crops - corn, cassava and soybeans. Research and extension activities are also heavily oriented to rice as are marketing and pricing policies. In particular, the Government has evolved a well-established rice marketing authority which exerts control on market prices; it also has set maximum fertilizer prices. While the major food crop production program (BIMAS) is not now limited to rice, its operation beyond rice production is of little significance. It is also apparent that the Government's efforts to increase food crop production have heavily favored Central Indonesia. 1.14 Concise plans or strategies for employment creation and income dis- tribution are more difficult to discern. The only explicit action has been the Inpres Programs which provide funding to regional and local governments for labor-intensive public works. 1.15 While specific policies aimed at improving income distribution do not stand out, a number of government actions may well have had an impact. One is the government's policy on prices and subsidies in agriculture. The GOI has for many years used various price and input subsidy (10% of the development budget) programs to stabilize prices and stimulate the produc- tion of rice and other major food crops. 1/ A fundamental policy instrument 1/ See Saleh Afiff and C. Peter Timmer, "Rice Policy in Indonesia," in Food Research Institute Studies, Vol. X; 1971, for a discussion of government policy in Indonesia up to 1970. -7- has been its fertilizer/pesticide credit package (BIMAS). 1/ At first, it appeared that BIMAS was a successful program. Farmer response improved enor- mously (area coverage of up to 60% in Java and almost 20% in the Other Islands was achieved in the wet season of 1974-75). However, recent reports show re- duced repayments and a substantial drop in the coverage of the program. 2/ The Government has gradually amended the BIMAS Program since its inception to include other major food crops, has increased prescribed fertilizer levels, liberalized credit conditions, removed restrictions on fertilizer supplies to estates, and introduced other administrative arrangements to facilitate fer- tilizer use by farmers. 3/ 1.16 A second part of the GOI effort to sustain an increase in foodgrain production has been through the powers vested in the National Logistics Organi- zation (BULOG), which is responsible for rice marketing, imports and price sup- ports. Farmers can sell their rice to cooperatives (BUUD and KUD) which in turn must sell at minimum prices to BULOG. Retail prices are also controlled with a view to keeping prices to consumers within a predetermined ceiling. In 1/ Various documents are available which summarize the past and current BIMAS, and the related INMAS programs; for example, see Annex 1 of Bank Report No. 1105a-IND, Appraisal of the National Food Crops Extension Project, Indonesia, May 7, 1976. See also a recently-prepared Bank report entitled "A Review of the Support Services for Food Production," December 13, 1977. 2/ There is some uncertainty concerning the reasons for the decline in repayment performance recently. It has been suggested that government pressure on collection has slackened because of national elections. 3/ In November 1976 the Government reversed its policy which before that time had given cooperatives virtual monopoly in the sale of fertilizer. After this date private enterprise was also allowed to participate; however, the policy has not yet been implemented in East Java, which accounts for 40% of total fertilizer consumption. -8- recent years, the GOI has raised domestic support prices for paddy which, with declining world prices, are now very close to world market levels on a farm-gate basis. At the same time, fertilizer prices have also been raised, reducing the GOI subsidy. 1.17 It is difficult to determine the exact impact of government poli- cies on the rural sector. Nevertheless, it would be fair to conclude that the combination of programs in irrigation rehabilitation and development, BIMAS, Inpres and the maintenance of a rice/fertilizer price ratio aimed at stimulating production have, together, improved farm incomes. However, the impact has probably been most pronounced in Central Indonesia and on larger than average tarms. Nutrition 1.18 According to information in The Appraisal Report of the Bank- supported Nutrition Project, Indonesia's daily average per capita availabil- ity of food is about 1,880 calories and 43 grams of protein, compared to a recommended requirement of 2,130 calories and 40 grams of protein. However, given the existing income distribution, almost two-thirds of the population is getting well below the required amounts. The most severe nutrition prob- lems - protein-calorie malnutrition (PCM) and vitamin A deficiencies - are widespread throughout Indonesia. Close to one-third of all children under the age of five (about 7 million) are estimated to suffer from moderate to severe PCM. Existing surveys show that PCM among Indonesian children below the age of two is particularly severe: over 50% of these children in Java suffer from second and third degree malnutrition (i.e. body-weights less than 75% and 60% respectively of the WHO norm). PCM is also a imajor cause - 9 - of Indonesia's high rate of infant mortality - between 110 and 150 per thous- and live births, compared with 139 in India and 38 in neighboring Malaysia. The incidence of vitamin A deficiency among Indonesia's population, particu- larly among children, is one of the highest in the world, reaching 4-5% in rural Java and up to 22% in urban squatter areas. These problems are the result of a combination of factors, the foremost of which are inadequate food production, widespread poverty and insufficient understanding of nutri- tional requirements. II. METHODOLOGY 1/ 2.1 A calorie consumption function was estimated, based on household expenditure data from the 1969 National Economic and Social Survey 2/ (Tables 7 to 10) and FAO estimates of food composition in East Asia. 3/ The consump- tion data have been converted from a per capita weekly basis to a daily basis in order that the results are comparable with the other country studies. In the absence of per capita income estimates, the consumption function has been based on total expenditure. 1/ See Annex 2 for a complete description of the methodology used for the projection given in this brief. 2/ Survey Social Ekonomi Nasional, Oktober 1969 - December 1969, Statistik, Jakarta, Indonesia.. 3/ At the time of this writing, the advanced tabulation of the 1976 Survey being processed by the Bank's Programs Division was not yet available. The 1976 data will be used for projection purposes by the Food Supply Mission scheduled for January, 1978, and will provide a useful check on the projections given here which are based on 1969 data. - 10 - 2.2 The average per capita calorie requirement for Indonesia is based on age specific requirements calculated by a special FAO/WHO committee and on estimates of average body weights in Indonesia - 50 kg for males and 44 kg for females (Table 14). The body weight adjusted requirements have been weighted by the most recent estimate of the age distribution in Indonesia and increased 10% to allow for waste and seasonal fluctuations. The estimate of the per capita calorie requirement is approximately 2130. 2.3 Population projections are taken from the Bank report, Indonesia: Appraisal of a Second Population Project. The assumed high and low income growth rates of 8% and 5% were supplied by the Indonesia Programs Division. III. PROJECTIONS Consumption 3.1 Consumption data obtained from the 1969-70 Economic and Social Sur- veys suggest that in 1970 Indonesia's average daily per capita calorie con- sumption fell below the minimum daily requirement level by 12% 1/ and that some 69% of Indonesia's population (81.2 million) suffered malnourishment. However, ignoring the higher-quality, higher-cost consumption baskets of the upper income groups and using the basket of the poor as a standard would reduce the estimated malnourished population to only 23% (see Tables 15 and 16). Yet even this estimate may overstate the malnourished population because the expenditure data appear to understate the consumption of the poorest. 1/ 1864 calories per capita compared 2118 calories after 10% allowance for waste and seasonal fluctuations. 3.2 In the base year (1970) rice featured more prominently in urban diets while cassava was the important food item for the rural population. Average total per capita calorie consumption was lower in urban than in rural areas (Table 16). The food expenditures necessary to achieve minimum daily requirements were higher for the urban population owing to their nutri- tionally-inefficient dietary habits as well as to the higher prices in urban areas. 3.3 Total calorie consumption (market demand) at the national level has been measured in tons of grain equivalents (TGE), using a 3.5 million calories/metric ton conversion rate. Nutritional gap.-/ has been aggregated 'rbbo'the average daily per capita deficit for each income class multiplied by the population in the class. Where consumption exceeded requirements, the deficit was taken as zero. 3.4 For the base year (1970) total market demand was 22.3 million TGE; the nutritional gap was 4.5 million TGE. Assuming low per capita income growth rates, 2/ total market demand would increase to 38.0 million TGE by 1985 (3.4% p.a.) and to 50.5 million TGE by 1995 (2.8% p.a.). The nutrition- al gap would decline to 1.4 million TGE by 1995, a 4.6% reduction per annum. 1/ Nutritional gap refers to theshorfall'be'ween actuaorconsumption and the level needed to meet minimum calorie requirements. 2/ 2.8% and 3.0% p.a. for 1970-85 and 1985-95, respectively. For a more complete explanation see Annex II. - 12 - At higher per capita income growth rates, 1/ demand would increase much more rapidly (4.4% p.a. to 1985 and 3.5% to 1995), reaching 44.2 million and 62.7 million TGE respectively (Tables 17 and 18, and Figure 2). The nutritional gap would decline to an insignificant level of about 100,000 TGE. At low income growth rates the malnourished population is expected to decline to 44% (71.8 million) by 1985 and to 28% (54.6 million) by 1995 (Tables 22 and 23; Figures 3 and 4). At higher income growth rates the malnourished population would decline further to 18% (28.6 million) in 1985 and to 3% (6.4 million) in 1995. Production 3.5 Projections of food production for Indonesia focus on the avail- ability of foodgrains. 2/ The most recent Bank foodgrain production projec- tion for 1985 3/ of 27.5 million metric tons has been projected to 1995 by assuming the same annual growth rate of 3.8% per annum. The projected food- grain production growth rate is somewhat lower than 3.99% average annual growth rate achieved during 1961-1974. An earlier study within the Bank, 4/ based on careful reviews of growth rates in harvested areas, cropping inten- sities, and yields, projects a much lower level of 25.3 million tons (high 1/ 5.8% and 6.0% p.a. for 1970-85 and 1985-95, respectively. 2/ S. Hadler, Developing Country Foodgrain Projections for 1985, World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 247, November 1976. Ms. Hadler will be revising these estimates during the upcoming Food Supply Mission to Indonesia. 3/ Om Nijhawan, "Indonesia: Estimate of Foodgrain Production 1973-1990," Draft, July-2, 1976.- - 13 - growth assumption) in 1985 and 29.0 million tons in 1990. Professor Leon Mears, a student of Indonesia's agriculture since the early 1950s, has pro- jected 1/ an input constrained level of 20.8 million tons of rice for 1985 which, when added to Nijhawan's high projection of 3.6 million tons of corn, implies a foodgrain production level of 24.4 million tons in 1985. 3.6 The calorie intake from foodgrains is estimated to account for about 73% of Indonesia's average total daily per capita calorie consumption (Table 15). Since the total market demand for food and food gap estimates are based on the total daily per capita calorie consumption which encom- passes other food items not included in the production data, an upward adjustment by a factor of 1.37 was made. Adjusting for consumption which originates from sources other than foodgrains should put the data relating to consumption, deficits and production on more comparable grounds. The Domestic Food Gap 3.7 For the base year 1970, the actual gap between market demand and production was estimated to be 1.17 million TGE. A low income growth rate would suppress growth in demand sufficiently to eliminate this domestic food gap by 1995. However, high income growth rates result in a domestic gap of 6.3 TGE in 1985 and 7.7 in 1995 (Tables 20 and 21, Figures 5 and 6). Because current expectations are for the per capita income growth rate to remain near its recent historical rate of 5.8%, the upper estimates of shortages are more likely to occur. The 1976 FAO projection shown in Figure 1 presents a similar 1/ Leon Mears, "Indonesia's Food Problems, Pelita II/III," Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia, June, 1976. -14- -~~ _ INDONESIA TaL.mo W3 GRAM (Ritum J. PER CAPrrA PRODUCTION. DIPORTS and DOMESTIC USE of GRAINS ,,I 1961 to 1975 with PROJECTIONS to 1980 (kg/ye) , I 4 ,* is sors Ito~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I 100 S S IO ,L , , , 140 (DCE MAII as Whn EA 77t0 Figure 1 conclusion. Mears' estimate of the domestic food gap for rice in 1985 of between 2 and 4 million metric tons is consistent with the high-growth gap forecast by this study. The most recent USDA estimate of rice imports for 1977 is 2.8 million tons. Sensitiyity 3.8 The number of malnourished, the size of the nutritional gap and market demand appear to be little affected by changes in income distribu- tion but they are sensitive to changes in prices and in assumed income growth rates (Tables 24 to 27, Figures 7 to 10). A 50% reduction in price of foodgrains from the base year results, on the average, in a 40% decrease in the numbers of malnourished while a 50% increase in price increases these numbers by 20%. Increasing the annual per capita income growth rate by three percentage points reduces the numbers of malnourished by 25 percentage points -15 - and the nutritional gap by approximately 80%. Though the impact of change varies from 1985 and 1995, it is of the similar order of magnitude and in the same direction for both years. Demand is particularly sensitive to changes in income growth rates (Table 19 and Figures 11 and 12). An increase of three percentage points in the income growth rate will increase total demand in 1985 from 38.1 million to 44.2 million TGE and in 1995 from 50.5 million to 62.7 million TGE. The food gap is also most sensitive to changes in in- come growth rates: in 1985 the gap increases from 0.2 million to 6.3 million TGE and, in 1995, from a domestic balance to a gap of 7.7 million TGE. IV. MAJOR POLICY ISSUES 4.1 Two major policy areas are examined below. The first section dis- cusses the related issues pf the composition of the consumption "basket" and the structure of rice prices. It recommends a larger price differential for different qualities of rice, with the price of the highest grade rising above world market levels. The second section looks at the sources and location of growth in agricultural production. Because the technology to produce the required growth is also likely to lead to a steady deterioration in rural employment, the section calls for, inter alia, a heavy emphasis on efforts to expand non-farm rural employment as part of Indonesia's strategy for food security. These issues are likely to be explored more fully by the Bank's Food Supply Mission to Indonesia in early 1978. 4.2 Food policy discussions in the Indonesian context must take into account the importance of rice in consumption and trade. First, rice accounts for more than half of the calorie intake in the existing diet. Second, gaps - 16 - between market demand and supply cannot exist. They are solved by a combi- nation of imports and price rises. Latest estimates indicate that as end of 1977 Indonesia will import 2.8 million tons of rice, or approximately 30% of a world market of 8.8 million tons. If rice imports grow at a rate greater than 4%, they will exceed 4 million tons by 1985. 4.3 Given these magnitudes, Indonesia is likely to have considerable influence on prices in the world rice market. Efforts to increase imports during short-term declines in domestic production are likely to increase world prices and greatly increase the foreign exchange costs of food imports. Fur- thermore, problems of bad weather or pests in Indonesia are likely to affect simultaneously rice production throughout Southeast Asia. Thailand might not be able to supply rice when it is most needed. Long-term contracts with producers in other parts of the world may reduce the risks of shortfalls in rice imports, but long-term food security will require other measures. The projections above have shown consumption to be most sensitive to changes in income growth and to changes in prices, but a low income growth policy is incompatible with the Indonesian Government's desire to achieve rapid economic development. Consequently, price policy is probably the only macro instrument available. 4.4 Objections to raising the price of rice are based on the argument that rice is the major wage good; increasing its "price" would be inflationary and would seriously reduce the living standards of the urban poor. This need not be the case. There are many qualities of rice, each with its own price. Furthermore, household expenditure data show that rice is not a major item in the diet of the poor (Table 15). They can hardly afford to buy it. The - 17 - welfare of the poor could be protected by imports of low quality rice (e.g., 35% brokens) - marketed by BULOG at subsidized prices. The prices of medium quality rice should be raised to world market levels and the prices of the best quality rice allowed to rise above world market prices, with the cost- price surplus going to help finance imports for the poor. 4.5 The benefits of adjusting the structure of rice prices along these lines are many. Increasing prices of all but the lowest grade of rice would shift the composition of the food basket towards other domestically-produced foods and wheat. This would reverse the secular rise experienced since 1965 in the rice relative price of soy beans, maize, cassava and sweet potatoes. 4.6 Because rainfed crops have been given much less emphasis than rice in existing crop intensification programs, Indonesian yields are among the lowest in Southeast Asia. Consequently, large increases in their production are still possible whereas increases in rice production are more difficult to achieve because its production level is closer to its potential under pres- ent technology. 4.7 Encouraging the consumption of bread - perhaps made in part from cassava flour - and the consumption of noodles made from wheat flour would shift the pattern of Indonesian diets towards those of the more developed Asian nations, causing the substitution of wheat imports for rice imports. Not only would the exchange costs of importing foodgrains decline - wheat currently costs Indonesia approximately one-third as much as rice - but Indonesian purchasers would command a smaller portion of the world rice market, if most of the future foodgrains imports were to be purchased in wheat. - 18 - 4.8 Finally, Indonesia could help to alleviate its nutrition problems if changes in price signals were accompanied with a nutrition education pro- gram. A recent study 1/ has shown that in 1975 prices a least-cost nutri- tionally-balanced diet derives 98% of calorie requirements from maize (54%) and cassava (44%) (Table 28). The price of rice would need to fall 78% before it would be included in the least-cost diet. Many of the poor could afford the nutritionally balanced diet if only they knew what to buy. For example, a simple campaign to increase the consumption of spinach 2/ could have a major impact on iron anemia, estimated to affect 55% of the total population. Similar rapid gains in the nutritional standards of children might be achieved by the Health Guidance Card Program (see attachment 1) developed by the Min- istry of Health. 3/ This effort to improve the health and nutrition of babies whose mothers participate in the family planning program may lead to a further reduction in Indonesia's child mortality and fertility rate, and further lessen Indonesia's nutrition problems. 4.9 The second set of issues concerns the sources and location of future agricultural growth. Java's combination of physical ecology and social history has produced a system of agricultural production in which access to employment is in part determined by a complex of social rights and obligations. But the 1/ IBRD, Indonesian Transmigration Projection II. III and IV Identification, May, 1977. 2/ A major ingredient of gado-gado. 3/ Apparently the US$3.5 million UNICEF grant to finance this.program has been held up by a jurisdictional dispute between the Ministry of Health and the National Family Planning Coordinating Body. - 19 - system is rapidly eroding as technical changes in agriculture foster the growth of commercialization. 1/ The problem facing Indonesia today is how to take advantage of the modern technology required for agricultural growth without creating unmanageable employment problems. 4.10 Professor Strout has simulated three different growth strategies for Indonesia: 2/ (a) high growth on Java; (b) low growth on Java; (c) even lower growth on Java with a focus on the Other Islands. He concludes that only strategy (c) is possible: "The objectives of such a policy of relative neglect would be to slow down the pace of change in Javanese agriculture, to reduce social tensions accompanying their change, to isolate at least some rural popula- tion segments from the rapid changes occurring in urban areas, and to limit the out-migration of rural population to levels compatible with the expansion of non-agricultural employment." 4.11 It is clear that the Other Islands must provide much of the re- quired growth in agriculture. But technological change and commercializa- tion of peasant agriculture in Java has already gained momentum and is unlikely to be impeded by a low growth policy, a policy which is politically non-feasible. 1/ For a model of this process of change see Gordon Temple, "Mudurnja Involusi Pertanian," Prisma, 1975. 2/ Alan M. Strout, "Agricultural Growth, Employment and Income Distribu- tion: Dilemmas for Indonesia's Next Five Year Plans," April 28, 1977. - 20 - 4.12 Food security for the lowest income groups requires that efforts to stimulate agricultural growth be accompanied by programs to accelerate the growth of non-farm rural employment. Such rural development efforts can help to reduce the social tensions which invariably accompany the disruptions caused by technological change in a labor-surplus environment. They will provide sources of income to members of the calorie-deficit target group who now suffer from undernourishment while working 12 to 14 hours a day to earn as little as US$0.15 per day. V. OTHER POLICY ISSUES 5.1 As with other countriees, the introduction of HYVs in the late six- ties and the application of other improved technology have made peasant agri- cultural production dependent on the timely arrival of inputs - particularly water and fertilizer - and on a dependable marketing system. Thus, the achievement of food security has come to hinge upon the effectiveness of Indonesia's agricultural supporting services system. 5.2 Rural cooperatives (BUUD/KTD) are the major points of contact between farmers and government programs for agricultural intensification. They supply inputs and provide drying, milling and marketing services. Yet only about 10% of farmers, mostly better educated, larger landowners and local officials, are active members. Reports exist of efforts to discour- age memberships among small farmers. 5.3 The food crop intensification program (BIMAS) channels credit to individuals through the Village Unit, comprising local offices of the Indonesian Peoples Bank (BRI) and the Ministry of Agriculture. Fertilizer - 21 - and pesticides are provided by credit in kind through local cooperatives while cash, accounting for about a third of the credit, is provided through the Village Unit to finance other purchased inputs and family labor time. Though BIMAS credit is in theory available to all farmers, field surveys suggest that small farmers (the 50% who own less than 0.5 ha) and tenants find access difficult.l/ 5.4 A recent study suggests that the BIMAS program bases its purchase of credit and input supply on a benefit/cost ratio of 2.4 whereas many farm- ers, in fact, may realize a ratio which is considerably lower. 2/ Actual production incentives and the ability to repay loans are overstated. One consequence may be the recent decline in BIMAS repayment rates which on present trends appear likely to fall below 65%. 5.5 The National Logistics Agency (BULOG), one of the stronger organi- zations concerned with food supply and distribution, handles the marketing of rice. It has successfully stabilized consumer rice prices, but its impact on producers' prices may be more controversial. Farm prices often dip below the floor price at harvest time, mainly because poorly-managed co- operatives cannot obtain credit from BRI to finance purchases of paddy from farmers. There is also the apparent widespread practice of cooperatives paying less than the official floor price to farmers in order to increase drying/ milling margins. Sometimes the cooperatives are used to make forced purchases of paddy to meet BULOG's needs. 1/ This section draws heavily from Indonesia: A Review of the Support Services for Food Production, December 13, 1977. 2/ Ibid., Annex 2. - 22 - 5.6 Several basic changes may be required for these input supply and marketing agencies to achieve their full potential. To avoid conflicts of interest and to gain the trust of farmers, cooperatives need to be in- dependent of national rice procurement policy and free to sell their milled rice to the highest bidder. Cooperatives would then be able to represent only producers' interests. Cooperatives also need to increase their membership, particularly among smaller farmers, so that government programs will have greater coverage. 5.7 Price policy can be implemented by BULOG through open market tran- sactions and by BIMAS through its input supply program. Some knowledgeable observers suggest that, given the bias in existing programs towards larger farmers and the difficulty of reaching small producers through official programs, a shift of resources from the BIMAS program to fertilizer subsidies would be desirable. Others would prefer that output prices rise along the line re- commended above. This debate will be a major issue to be considered by the upcoming Food Supply Mission. 5.8 With effective input supply and marketing agencies, the remaining constraints include research and extension. This is particularly true in Indonesia where pests - mainly the Brown Planter Hopper - have adapted more quickly to changes in plant type than originally expected. The problem is serious. In some areas of East Java as much as 75% of the crop has been reported destroyed in some years. A decentralized research and seed produc- tion system is required in order to develop and disseminate quickly resistant rice varieties. Under the present extension system, pest and disease control activities are for practical purposes limited to participants in the BIMAS - 23 - Program which in general reaches larger, richer farmers. Furthermore, although there appears to be a sufficient number of extension workers, they lack an system of reaching farmers effectively. The training and visit system developed under the National Food C rops Extension Project has shown excellent results in several provinces, but needs to be intensified and expanded as quickly as management constraints permit. 5.9 Finally, the thrust of programs to increase food security must be shifted away from a narrow focus on rice production to a broader emphasis on food production. Efforts to increase production of maize, cassava, soybeans and groundnuts are slowed by lack of new varieties, lack of appro- priate inputs and lack of competitive market channels. The Government is well aware of the benefits to be derived from supporting the production of upland crops but the effects of their inclusion in BIMAS, and existing research and extension programs have not achieved the desired coverage of Indonesia's large numbers of small producers. INDONESIA Land Potential for Agriculture and Land Use by Region (1974) Land Potential for-Agriculture Cultivated Land- Cultivable Marginal Unsuitable Food Tree Land Land Land Total Crops Crops Total ------------------------------('000 ha)--------------------------- Java, Madura & Bali 1607 5982 6186 13775 8222 1289 9511 Sumatera 631 34087 12645 47363 2299 2143 4442 Kalimantan - 24600 29400 54000 760 716 1476 Sulawesi 1181 3975 14039 19095 1212 491 1703 Irian Jaya - 18900 23300 42200 123 96 219 Other 257 6807 5449 14514 992 111 1103 Total 3576 96351 91019 190946 13608 4846 18454 /1 larvested area. Source: IBRD Report, Indonesia Agricultural & Rural Sector Memorandum (September 28, 1977) Table 2 INDONESIA Population Proiections by Age Group-4 ('000s) 1970 1985 1995 Age Group Male Female Male Female Male Female 0- 4 9,708 9,606 12,049 11,730 12,060 11,698 5 - 9 8,424 8,277 10,946 10,694 11,826 11,513 10 - 14 7,204 7,090 10,122 9,906 11,386 11,102 15 - 19 5,978 6,062 8,736 8,642 10,643 -10,395 20 - 24 4,182 4,452 7,891 7,738 9,772 9,576 25 - 29 3,925 3,939 6,647 6,477 8,337 8,275 30 - 34 4,091 4,126 5,414. 5,513 7,476 7,355 35 - 39 3,494 3,374 3,723 3,992 6,247 6,114 40 - 44 2,886 2,920 3,420 3,479 5,023 5,159 45 - 49 2,368 2,453 3,459 3,588 3,385 3,694 50 - 54 1,905 2,046 2,833 2,932 3,016 3,163 55 - 59 1,424 1,620 2,199 2,376 2,914 3,162 60 - 64 1,086 1,287 1,642 1,860 2,228 2,452 65 - 69 705 889 1,142 1,376 1,555 1,822 70 - 74 455 587 691 904 988 1,240 75 + 322 454 547 802 797 1,148 Total 58,152 59,182 81,461 82,009 97,653 97,868 Total (Male and Female) 117,334 163,470 195,521 /1 Low fertility assumption using the following birth rate, death rate and growth rate assumptions: Birth Death Growth Period Rate Rate Rate --- ('OOOs) --- () 1970-75 42.2 18.9 2.3 1976-80 38.8 16.8 2.2 1981-85 35.7 14.9 2.1 1986-90 32.3 13.2 1.9 1991-95 28.5 11.7 1.7 SOURCE: IBRD report, Indonesia Appraisal of a Second Population Project (May 31, 1977). Table 3 INDONESIA 1970 Population Distribution by Income Group (%) Monthly Java and Madura Outer Islands Expenditure Group (Rp) Urban Rural Urban Rural Indonesia Less than 300 0.9 1.5 0.1 0.9 1.2 301 - 500 1.7 .8.7 1.0 4.3 6.4 501 - 750 9.9 20.3 5.8 9.8 15.8 751 - 1000 11.5 22.0 10.4 15.2 18.6 1001 - 1250 14.8 15.4 12.6 14.1 14.9 1251 - 1500 12.6 10.5 9.9 13.1 11.4 1501 - 2000 17.4 11.6 21.0 16.9 14.0 2001 - 2500 12.4 5.2 13.3 10.3 7.7 2501 - 3000 6.4 2.0 10.4 5.7 3.8 3001 and over 12.4 2.8 15.5 9.7 6.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 % Distribution of Total Population 11.6 52.7 5.7 30.0 100.0 Source: Indonesia Household Expenditure Survey: October 1969 - April 1970 (SUSENA II) (Central Bureau of Statistics, Jakarta). Table 4 INDONESIA Population Distribution and Density by Region & Province 1971 ('000) Population Region Population Ppulaion (persons/Km2) 1. D.C.I. Jakarta 4,576 7,944- 2. West Java 21,633 440 3. Central Java 21,877 634 4. D.I. Jogjakarta 2,490 793 5. East Java 25,527 539 Total Java and Madura 76,102 565 6. South Sumatra 3,444 33 7. Lampung 2,777 82 8. Bengkulu 519 25 9. Jambi 1,006 10. R i a u 1,642 16 11. West Sumatra 2,793 42 12. North Sumatra 6,623 94 13. Aceh 2,009 34 Total Sumatra 20,813 38 14. West Kalimantan 2,020 13 15. Central Kalimantan 700 4 16. South Kalimantan 1,699 49 17. East Kalimantan 734 4 Total Kalimantan 5,152 9 18. North Sulawesi 1,718 71 19. Central Sulawesi 914 10 20. South Sulawesi 5,189 63 21. South-East Sulawesi 714 22 Total Sulawesi 8,535 37 22. Bali 2,120 377 23. West Nusa Tenggara 2,202 101 24. East Nusa Tenggara 2,295 47 Total Nusa Tenggara 6,617 87 25. Maluku 1,089 13 26. West Irian 923 2 Total Indonesia 119,232 Source: Monthly Statistical Bulletin, September 1972, INDONESIA Agricultural Sector's Share in the Economy 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 ----(Rp billion)…-- Total GDP 3936 4270 4639 5238 5571 5871 GDP, Non-oil Sector 3643 3960 4266 4779 5089 5406 Agriculture 1451 1495 1527 1684 1724 1734 ------------------(US$ million)---- Total Export Earnings 1204 1374 1939 3613 7186 7185 Export Earnings, Non-Oil 761 784 974 1905 2033 1873 Sector Agricultural Exports 623 646 799 1653 1623 1454 Agriculture's Share of; --------------------- )…------------------…------ Total GDP 36.9 35.0 32.9 32.2 30.9 29.5 GDP, Non-Oil Sector 39.8 37.8 35.8 35.2 33.9 32.1 Total Export Earnings 51.7 47.0 41.2 45.8 22.6 20.2 Export Earnings, Non-Oil Sector 81.9 82.0 82.0 86.8 79.8 77.6 1 / In Constant 1971'Prices.- Source: IBRD Report, Indonesia Agricultural and Rural Development Sector Memorandum (September 28, 1977). 'Ji Table 6 INDONESIA Farm Size Distribution in 1973/1 Indonesia Java & Madura % of Average % of Average No. of Total Farm No. of Total Farm Farm Size Farms Farms Size Farms Farms Size (ha) (%) (ha) (%) (ha) up to 0.25. 3194 22.2 0.2 2569 28.6 0.2 0.25- 0.50 3366 23.4 0.3 2534 28.3 0.3 0.50 0.75 2277 15.8 0.6 1481 16.5 0.6 0.75- 1.00 1278 8.9 0.8 757 8.4 0.8 1.00- 2.00 2598 18.1 1.3 1186 13.2 1.3 2.00- 3.00 853 5.9 2.3 276 3.1 2.3 3.00- 4.00 336 2.3 3.3 86 1.0 3.3 4.00- 5.00 164 1.2 4.3 37 0.4 4.4 5.00-10.00 224 1.6 6.5 28 0.4 6.3 10.00-15.00 47 0.3 11.7 4 0.1 11.0 15.00 and over 37 0.3 24.5 2 - 22.0 Total 14374 100.0 1.0 8970 100.0 0.6 /1 Private or public estates are not included. Source: IBRD Report, Indonesia Agricultural and Rural Development Sector Memorandum (September 28, 1977). Table 7 INDONESIA Caloric Conversion Table Unit Calories Rice (Milled) kg 3660 (Flour) kg 3720 Corn (on the cob) 698 (Grain) kg 3490 (Flour) kg 3550 Cassava (Root) kg 980 (Dried) kg 3330 (Flour) kg 3630 Sweet Potatoes kg 1000 Fresh Fish kg 460 Dried Fish (Salted) kg 1820 Cumi-cumi kg 490 Beef kg 2180 Lamb kg 2470 Pork kg 3330 Dried Meat kg 3090 Poultry kg 1930 Eggs # 72 Milk (Fresh) Liter 1152 (Powder) kg 3630 Vegetables kg 190 Coconut 595 Peanut kg 1970 Beans kg 3360 Sugar (Brown) ons 389 (Granulated) ons 351 Cooking Oil Liter 8840 Margarines/Fat ons 739 Source: FAO & USHEW, Food Composition Table for Use in East Asia (Bethesda, Md., 1972) and IBRD, Indonesia: Development Prospects & Needs, Basic Economic Report (Washington, D. C. April 15, 1975). Table 8 INDONESIA Daily Per Capita Calorie Consumption Monthly Java and Madura Outer Islands Expenditure Group (Rp) Urban Rural Urban Rural Indonesia Less than 300 566 765 466 1,396 955 301 - 500 978 1,064 830 1,581 1,148 501 - 750 998 1,290 1,067 1,810 1,351 751 - 1000 1,180 1,571 1,536 1,842 1,586 1001 - 1250 1,329 1,776 1,497 2,103 1,757 1251 - 1500 1,389 2,091 1,661 2,044 1,971 1501 - 2000 1,657 2,241 1,950 2,396 2,182 2001 - 2500 1,711 2,566 2,243 2,618 2,398 2501 - 3000 1,925 3,095 2,116 2,898 2,675 3001 and over 2,359 3,452 2,634 3,439 3,106 Source: Indonesia Household Expenditure Survey: October 1969 - April 1970 (SUSENA II) (Central Bureau of Statistics, Jakarta). Table 9 INDONESIA Daily Per Capita Cereal Calorie Consumption Monthly Java and Madura Outer Islands Expenditure Group (Rp) Urban Rural Urban Rural Indonesia Less than 300 263 533 0 1,072 612 301 - 500 784 769 623 1,108 826 501 - 750 812 947 850 1,376 1,008 751 - 1000 951 1,157 1,202 1,420 1,187 1001 - 1250 1,048 1,347 1,133 1,506 1,342 1251 - 1500 1,096 1,506 1,266 1,567 1,461 1501 - 2000 1,270 1,625 1,442 1,758 1,601 2001 - 2500 1,226 1,830 1,649 1,916 1,731 2501 - 3000 1,356 2,070 1,527 1,984 1,835 3001 and over 1,479 2,246 1,809 2,240 2,017 Source: Indonesia Household Expenditure Survey: October 1969 - April 1970 (SUSENA II) (Central Bureau of Statistics, Jakarta). Table 10 INDONESIA Daily Per Capita Cassava Calorie Intake Monthly Java and Madura Outer Islands Expenditure Group (Rp) Urban Rural Urban Rural Indonesia Less than 300 269 227 0 544 290 301 - 500 189 201 163 307 218 501 - 750 80 213 30 249 206 751 - 1000 78 214 59 191 195 1001 - 1250 60 177 48 148 151 1251 - 1500 28 209 28 112 151 1501 - 2000 44 197 58 159 154 2001 - 2500 40 200 46 145 140 2501 - 3000 46 321 34 216 194 3001 and over 68 215 81 192 158 Source: Indonesia Household Expenditure Survey: October 1969 - April 1970 (SUSENA II) (Central Bureau of Statistics, Jakarta). Table 11 INDONESIA Monthly Average Per Capita Expenditure by Expenditure Group Monthly Java and Madura Outer Islands Expenditure Group (Rp) Urban Rural Urban Rural Indonesia Less than 300 235 240 272 248 241 301 - 500 417 424 454 430 425 501 - 750 643 632 628 641 634 751 - 1000 883 874 882 884 877 1001 - 1250 1,125 1,120 1,121 1,136 1,124 1251 - 1500 1,384 1,374 1,419 1,388 1,381 1501 - 2000 1,730 1,725 1,737 1,757 1,736 2001 - 2500 2,207 2,227 2,238 2,263 2,236 2501 - 3000 2,705 2,722 2,726 2,766 2,735 3001 and over 4,883 4,218 4,335 4,483 4,491 Source: Indonesia Household Expenditure Survey: October 1969 - April 1970 (SUSENA II) (Central Bureau of Statistics, Jakarta). Table 12 INDONESIA Monthly Average Per Capita Expenditure on Food (Rp) Expenditure Java and Madura Outer Islands Group (Rp) Urban Rural Urban Rural Indonesia Less than 300 188 197 162 202 197 301 - 500 334 344 359 347 345 501 - 750 496 514 509 524 514 751 - 1000 677 702 700 732 707 1001 - 1250 829 890 892 921 890 1251 - 1500 1,020 1,077 1,075 1,121 1,082 1501 - 2000 1,257 1,335 1,348 1,399 1,343 2001 - 2500 1,548 1,714 1,674 1,793 1,706 2501 - 3000 1,863 2,039 1,937 2,161 2,039 3001 and over 3,117 2,988 3,165 3,391 3,195 Source: Indonesia Household Expenditure Survey: October 1969 - April 1970 (SUSENA II) (Central Bureau of Statistics, Jakarta). Table 13 INDONESIA Proportion of Total Expenditure Spent on Food (%) Monthly Java and Madura Outer Islands Expenditure Group (Rp) Urban Rural Urban Rural Indonesia Less than 300 80 82 60 81 82 301- 500 80 81 79 81 81 501- 750 77 81 81 82 81 751- 1000 77 80 79 83 81 1001 - 1250 74 79 80 81 79 1251 - 1500 74 78 76 81 78 1501 - 2000 73 77 78 80 77 2001 - 2500 70 77 75 79 76 2501 - 3000 69 75 71 78 75 3001 and over 64 71 76 76 71 Source: Indonesia Household Expenditure Survey: October 1969 - April 1970 (SUSENA II) (Central Bureau of Statistics, Jakarta). 12/22/77 Table 15 INDONESIA Calorie Deficit Population with Varied Food Baskets Poor 2/ Mode Nationall/ Income - Income Average - Group Group Source of calorie intake (%) Rice 57 29 54 Maize 16 43 21 Cassava 9 19 12 Other 18 9 13 Current food expenditure (Rp. per month) 1088 345 707 Total per capital daily calorie consumption 1864 1148 1586 Food expenditure necessary to meet minimum dail/- calorie requirement - (Rp/month) 1236 637 944 % of population expending less than the amount required to meet minimum requirement level 68 23 57 1/ Food basket is allowed to vary with income group 2/ Monthly per capita expenditure of Rp.301-500 3/ Monthly per capita expenditure of Rp.751-1000 4/ 1925 calories plus 10% margin for waste and seasonal variations. INDONESIA Malnourished Population Assuming Poor & Mode Income Group Food Basket Poor Income Group/l Mode Income Groupi /2 Java and Hadura Outer Islands Java and Madura Outer Islands Urban Rural Urban Rural Indonesia Urban Rural Urban Rural Indonesia Average daily per capita calorie intake 978 1064 830 1581 1148 1180 1571 1536 1842 1586 Average monthly per capita food.expenditure (Rp) 334 344 359 347 345 677 702 700 732 707 Average monthly per capita food expenditure needed to meet minimunmcalorie requirementl.3 (Rp) 723 684 916 465 637 1215 946 965 842 944 X of population falling below the required food expenditure level at given food basket 247e 30% 30% 57 237 /4 51% 68% 30% 17% 57X 14 % total calorie intake from: Rice 41.6 29.3 74.6 25.9 29.1 76.2 54.1 67.6 50.5 54.2 Corn/Maize 34.3 43.0 0.5 44.2 42.8 4.4 20.2 10.7 26.6 20.6 Cassava 18.3 18.9 19.6 19.4 19.0 6.6 13.7 3.8 10.4 12.3 Other 5.8 8.8 5.3 10.5 9.1 12.8 12.9 17.9 12.5 12.9 1/ Monthly per capita expenditure ranging from Rp 301 to Rp 500. 21 Monthly per capita expenditure ranging from Rp 751 to Rp 1,000. 19% of the total population. 3/ Hinimum per capita daily calorie requirement is 2118 for the base year. 4/ This compares to 68% of the population if the food basket is allowed to vary with expenditure groups. Source: Indonesia Household Expenditure Survey. H4 (5 INDONESIA Projected Total Food Needs, Market Demand and Production Low Income Growth Rate Projection (Million Metric Tons) Total Production Projections Food Market Adjusted - Nutritional Domestic4, Domestic I/ 4/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4/ Needs Demand Bank IFPRI Bank Gap Food Gap- Harket Gap- 1970 27.29 22.80 15.77 20.32 21.63 4.49 5.66 1.17 1985 40.64 38.06 27.59 31.65 37.85 2.58 2.79 0.21 1995 51.95 50.52 40.06 42.54 54.95 1.43 - - 1/ Based on S. Hadler's foograin projections for Indonesia. The 1974-85 annual growth rate of 3.8% 1 has been used to project 1995 production. 2/ IFPRI, Food Needs of Developing Countries (1977). Production growth rate of 3.0% p.a. is used. 3/ Adjusted by a factor of 1.37 to account for the 17% of consumption which is derived from sources other than foodgrains. 4/ Adjusted Bank production projection figures. INDONESIA Projected Total Food Needs, Market Demand and Production High Income Growth Rate Projection (Million Metric Tons) Total Production Projections Food Market Adjusted Nutritional Domestic Domestic Needs Demand Bank IFPRI BankI Gap Food Gap Market Gap 1970 27.29 22.80 15.77 20.32 31.63 4.49 5.66 1.17 1985 44.82 44.16 27.59 31.65 37.85 0.66 6.97 6.31 1995 62.77 62.66 40.06 42.54 54.95 0.11 7.82 7.71 I-3 00 INDONESIA Projected Total Food.Needs and Market Demand- (Million Metric Tons) Low Income Growth Rate High Income Growth Rate Price 1985 1995 1985 1995 Price - Changes Total 1/ Market 2/ Total Market Total Market Total Total Food Need-l Demand - Food Needs Demand Food Needs Demand Food Needs Demand -50 42.33 41.04 53.50 52.87 46.86 46.58 64.13 63.97 -25 41.23 39.30 52.21 51.01 45.72 45.16 62.83 62.73 0 40.64 38.06 51.35 49.69 44.83 44.16 61.99 61.86 25 40.20 37.11 50.69 48.67 44.34 43.38 61.22 61.18 50 39.83 36.32 50.13 47.84 43.94 42.75 60.76 60.63 1/ Supply needed to raise consumption to the minimum requirement level. 2/ Projected consumption level with unchanged income distribution. 0m I- INDONESIA Projected Nutritional Gap in Grain Equivalents- /(1985) (million Mletric Tons) Low Income Growth Rate - High Income Growth Rate Calorie Requirement Calorie Req. - 200 Calorie Requirement Calorie Req. - 200 Price Unchanged More Equal Unchanged More Equal Unchanged More Equal Unchanged More Equal Change Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc.Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. -50 1.29 0.94 0.66 0.42 0.27 0.20 0.15 0.08 -25 1.93 1.51 0.97 0.68 0.56 0.38 0.20 0.07 0 2.57 2.16 1.36 1.06 0.67 0.55 0.33 0.20 25 3.09 2.65 1.50 1.36 0.96 0.62 0.42 0.31. 50 3.51 2.97 1.98 1.47 1.19 0.86 0.50 0.37 1/ Assuming 3.5 million calories per metric ton of cereal. I-. 0b INDONESIA Projected NutritionaL-Gap in Grain Equivalents (1995) , (Million Metric Tons) Low Income Growth Rate High Income Growth Rate % Calorie Requirement Calorie Req. - 200 + Calorie Requirement Calorie Req. - 200 Price Unchanged More Equal Unchanged More Equal U4changed More Equal Unchanged More Equal Change Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc.Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. -50 0.59 0.45 0.27 0.14 0.04 0.01 0 0 -25 1.18 0.86 0.49 0.35 0.08 0.05 0.02 0 0 1.63 1.29 0.67 0.50 0.10 0.07 0.05 0.02 25 1.96 1.61 1.01 0.66 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.03 50 2.40 1.88 1.28 0.92 0.20 0.10 0.09 0.05 12/22/77 H 0S INDONESIA Projected Malnourished Population (1985) (%) Low Income Growth Rate I/ High Income Growth Rate 3/ X Calorie Requirement- Calorie Req. - 200 Calorie Requirement Calorie Req. - 200 Price Unchanged Mlore Equal 4/ Unchanged More Equal Urchanged tore Equal Unchanged More Equal Change Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist.- Inc.Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. -50 27.00 23.40 13.60 10.30 7.30 5.90 3.40 2.00 -25 37.10 33.80 21.50 18.20 13.10 9.90 5.80 4.40 0 43.90 41.30 27.60 24.10 17.50 14.30 7.50 6.10 25 48.30 46.10 32.60 29.20 20.90 17.70 10.50 7.40 50 51.90 49.80 36.70 33.40 23.70 20.50 12.90 9.70 1/ Assuming 5% annual CDP growth rate and population growth of 2.2% p.a. 2/ Assuming 8% annual GDP growth rate adjusted by population growth rate. 3/ 2129 calories per capita per day 4/ Assuming a decrease in GINI coefficient by 10%. F3 N N INDONESIA Projected Malpourished Population (1995) Low Income Growth Rate High Income Growth Rate X Calorie Requirement Calorie Req. - 200 Calorie Requirement Calorie Req. - 200 Price Unchanged More Equal Unchanged More Equal Unchanged More Equal Unchanged More Equal Change Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc.Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. Inc. Dist. -50 14.9 11.6 6.2 4.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 -25 22.3 19.0 10.8 7.5 2.1 1.1 0.9 0.6 0 27.9 24.4 15.4 12.1 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.8 25 32.6 29.2 19.0 15.7 4.3 2.9 1.3 1.0 50 36.0 32.7 22.0 18.7 5.0 3.6 2.0 1.1 12/22/77 H X~ INDONESIA Projected Income Distribution Effect on Calorie Consumption: 1985 (Calories) Cumulative Total Daily Per Capita Calorie Consumption Population Low Growth Rate High Growth Rate Distribution (%) Base Year GINI +10% GINI GINI -10% GINI +10% GINI GINI -10% 1.20 955 806 922 1042 1167 1279 1396 7.60 1148 1310 1392 1478 1670 1750 1833 23.40 1351 1666 1724 1786 2025 2082 2141 42.00 1586 1954 1994 2035 2313 2351 2391 56.90 1757 2174 2200 2226 2533 2557 2582 68.30 1971 2357 2370 2384 2715 2728 2741 82.30 2182 2561 2560 2560 2918 2918 2917 90.00 2398 2785 2770 2754 3142 3128 3112 93.80 2675 2964 2938 2909 3321 3295 3267 100.00 3106 3404 3349 3290 3761 3706 3649 INDONESIA Pnolected Income Distribution Effect on Calorie Consumption: 1995 Cumulative Total Daily Per Capita Calorie Consumption Population Low Growth Rate High Growth Rate Distribution (x) Base Year GINI +10% GINI GINI -10% GINI +10% GINI GINI -10% 1.20 955 1167 1052 1287 1763 1651 1880 7.60 1148 1638 1556 1724 2233 2154 2317 23.40 1351 1970 1911 2031 2565 2509 2625 42.00 1586 2239 2199 2280 2835 2796 2875 56.90 1757 2445 2420 2471 3040 3016 3066 68.30 1971 2616 2603 2629 3211 3199 3225 82.30 2182 2806 2806 2805 3401 3402 3401 90.00 2398 3016 3031 3000 3611 3626 3596 93.80 2675 3183 3210 3154 3778 3804 3751 100.00 3106 3594 3650 3536 4190 4244 4133 LnI INDONESIA Projected Price Change Effects on Calorie Consumption: 1985 Cumulative Total Daily Per Capita Calorie Consumption Population Low Growth Rate High Growth Rate Distribution (X2 Base Year Const. Pi/ P + 50% P - 50% Const. P P + 50% P - 50% 1.20 955 922 800 1129 1279 1133 1529 7.60 1148 1392 1247 1641 1750 1617 1976 23.40 1351 1724 1591 1953 2082 1969 2273 42.00 1586 1994 1876 2195 2351 2256 2513 56.90 1757 2200 2095 2379 2557 2475 2698 68.30 1971 2370 2277 2531 2728 2655 2852 82.30 2182 2560 2478 2701 2918 2855 3025 90.00 2398 2770 2700 2891 3128 3075 3218 93.80 2675 2938 2876 3043 3295 3249 3374 100.00 3106 3349 3305 3424 3706 3674 3761 P: Price INDONESIA Projected Price Change Effects.on Calorie Consumption: 1995 (calories) Cumulative Total Daily Per Capita Calorie Consumption Population Low Growth Rate High Growth Rate Distribution (x) Buse Year Const. P1/ P + 50%/ P - 50% Const. P P + 50% P - 50% 1.20 955 1052 1024 1411 1651 1631 1988 7.60 1148 1556 1500 1874 2154 2131 2409 23.40 1351 1911 1850 2174 2509 2483 2705 42.00 1586 2199 2137 2414 2796 2768 1949 56.90 1757 2420 2356 2597 3016 2984 3138 68.30 1971 2603 2537 2751 3199 3162 3296 82.30 2182 2806 2737 2923 3402 3359 3473 90.00 2398 3031 2958 3115 3626 3576 3671 93.80 2675 3210 3132 3269 3804 3748 3830 100.00 3106 3650 3559 3655 4244 4169 4225 P: Price 1-. INDONESIA Projected Income Distribution Effects on Calorie Consumption (As % of Calorie Requirement) Monthly Expenditure Group (Rp) Base Year Low Growth Rate High Growth Rate e.mI + 10% GINI GINI-10% GINI + 10% GINI GINI-10% 1985 Less than 300 45 38 43 49 55 60 66 301-500 54 62 65 69 78 82 86 501-750 63 78 81 84 95 98 101 751-1000 75 92 94 96 109 110 112 1001-1250 83 102 103 105 119 120 121 1251-1500 93 111 111 112 128 128 129 1501-2000 103 120 120 120 137 137 137 2001-2500 113 131 130 129 148 147 146 2501-3000 126 139 138 137 156 155 154 More 3001 146 160 157 155 177 174 171 1995 Less than 300 45 55 49 60 83 78 88 301-500 54 77 73 81 105 101 109 501-750 63 93 90 95 121 118 123 751-1000 75 105 103 107 133 131 135 H 1001-1250 83 115 114 116 143 142 144 1251-1500 93 123 122 124 151 150 152 1501-2000 103 132 132 132 160 160 160 2001-2500 113 142 141 141 170 170 169 2501-3000 126 150 151 148 178 179 176 More 3001 146 169 172 166 197 199 194 INDONESIA Projected Price Change Effects on Calorie Consumption (As % of Calorie Requirement) Monthly Expenditure Group (Rp) Base Year Low Growth Rate High Growth Rate Cons. fP P =50% P -50% Const. P P +50% p 50% 1985 -=ess than 300 45 43 38 53 60 53 72 301-500 54 65 59 77 82 76 93 501-750 63 81 75 92 98 93 107 751-1000 75 94 88 103 110 106 118 1001-1250 83 103 98 112 120 116 127 1251-1500 93 111 107 119 128 125 134 1501-2000 103 120 116 127 137 134 142 2001-2500 113 130 127 136 147 145 151 2501-3000 126 138 135 143 155 153 159 More 3001 146 157 155 161 174 173 177 1995 Less than 300 45 49 48 66 78 77 93 301-500 54 73 70 88 101 100 113 501-750 63 90 87 102 118 117 127 751-1000 75 103 100 113 131 130 92 1001-1250 83 114 111 122 142 140 147 1251-1500 93 122 119 129 150 149 155 1501-2000 103 132 129 137 160 158 163 2001-2500 113 142 139 146 170 168 173 2501-3000 126 151 147 154 179 176 180 More 3001 146 172 167 172 199 196 199 Table 30 INDONESIA Least Cost Diet (Per Capita Per Day)/1 At 1975 Prices % of Total Quantity Kilocalorie Calorie Calorie (Kg) /2 Intake Intake Maize .41442 3550 1471 54 Fresh cassava .89806 1350 1212 44 Fish .01902 1930 37 ) Buffalo meat .00026 1200 .31 ) 2 Spinach .06829 1io 10) Total 2730 100 /1 This nutritionally balanced, least cost diet was developed in the course of Indonesia Transmigration PrQiect II, III & IV identification, using linear programming. The exercise was constrained by,a weight limitation of 1.4 kg of food per day. /2 The calorie composition used in the least cost diet exercise ditters somewhat from ours. Source: IBRD, Indonesia: Identification of Transmigration Projects II, III & IV (May 16, 1977, Yellow Cover). Figure 2 INDONESIA ROJECTED TOTAL FOOD NEEOS. MRRKET OEMAND ANO PROOUCTrON ,,65.0 60C X - 55.a-High GR 55.0 z t_ 10. 6 1719417192l819094 Low GR C) C~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 0.. 45.0 :40.0- - nRRKET OERN -* ~~ - IFR/ROUTO ROE/O -i - RJSE RK,OOCtNPOETO P 30 .0/77 ul2D.0 I- 70- LO c r. W I T I LO INO* CROUI *t R, T R';U T , 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 YERRS LEGENO … ----TOTAL FOOO NEEDS MiARKET OEMlANO -- - - ~BANK PRODUCTION PROJECTION IFPR? PRODUCTrON PROJECTrON - - AD~RJUSTEa BANK PRODUCTION PROJECTION LOW4 Ont WIThI LOW JZXCOIE. UROW1III r%nTE m!;SUr,PTIO14 HIGCH OR: WIThi HIlGh INCUMIE GROWTII RATE nSSUMPITION Figure 3 INDONESIA PROJECTED MRLNOURISHED POPULATION 1985 6650 60.0 _ C z C.) = 46.0 0- # 40.0 c:35.0 / / C 30.0 C-j 05. W 2S.S / ' ;>CR 0~~~~~~~~~~~0 010.0 L , - = - CR-200 6.0 -40.0 -20.0 .0 20.0 40.0 PRrCE CHRNGES EPERCENT] - LEGEND LOW GROWTH RRTE. UNCHRNGED IHCOME DISTRIBUTION … - - - - - - -LOW GROWTH RATE. nORE EOURL INCOnE DISTRrBUTIZO -- - - - - HIGH GROWTH RATE. UNCHRNGED INCOnE DISTRIBUTION - - - - - - HIGH GROWTH RATE. MORE EOUAL INCOnE OISTRrBUTION CRt ,A T nSSUhCO hi:N111U,; C1)LnRlE REOUIRrIlENT LEVEL CR-200a RT 20n) CfiLO.IES LESS Tr:614 tfltilltUn REQUIREMENT LEVEL Figure 4 INOONESIR PROJECTED MRLNOURISHEO POPULATION 1995 ss.s LLI 0-, t- 45.0 . _ 40.0 C) 35.0 c-J o 30.0 -_ LLJ 25 -0 cc~ ° 20.D _ /.1 7 ,CR-200 o 10.0 . -20.- _ _- -_ = --- _r _.. CRC - 200 -40.0 -20.0 .0 Z0.0 40.0 PRICE CHRNGES [PERCENT] LEGEND LOW GROWTH RATE. UNCHRN-E ItUCOME OISTRIBUTION --…----- -LOW 02TH RATE. MORE E ULL ICOiE OlNTR1BUTION -- - - -- HOIGII ORO'TH RATE. UNtChROGEO IN2COME OITRIBUTION -- --- -HCH GROJTH RATE. ilURE EgU2WL INCOME OISTRIBUTION CRa , AT ASSUhEO h!itJ'1t1i1 CniLn.IE RECUIRfrIiENT LEVEL CR-200C fT 200 CSLC2IES LESS TeRfIN filtIWIU REtlUIREt1UCT LEVEL Figure 5 INDONESIR 'ROJECTED NUTRITIONRL GRP IN GRRTN EQUIVRLENTS 1985 3.50 SCR Z275_/,' z.60 _/ , Z2.25_X, . 3.00 a-~~~~~~~~~~~~ U,- *D -0.. 2 1I .00 a- C~~~~~~~~R-200 -4.0 -210.0.0050. PRICE.CHRNGES [PERCENT] LEGEND LOUS GROWTH RATE. UNCHANGED INCOME orsTrrsurrom --- --- CWROWTH RRE. MORE EQUiL rYCOtE OISTRI 2UTI0K - - - - --mrch GROWTH RRTE. UNCHRNCEO INCOE -rSTRr ------ HICH C-ROWTH RATE. MoRE EQURL INCOME DISTRIBUTION CRi , AT f1SuNJhU 1NI!; CAL(lRIE RrouifFAWlNT l.fEVEL CR-200i AT 200 C .i!-OilEli LE.S Tl2ll.l Mi 0lIIUtl REOIJl 0iE.0 LEVEL Figure 6 INDONESIR 'ROJECTED NUTRITIONAL GAP IN GRRIN EQUIVRLENTS 1995 5.60: 5.25 9.00 v-: cr4 z: 2.75 cz 0-5 2.50 2.25 - 2.uO - / CR * 2.00 r~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ * 1.75 0- CC 1.25 LG0 N --0 - LO4COtCRRT.-2EEuL 00E ST18TO .750 - ~~~CR .00 ~~~~~ ~~ ~2 2- CR- 200 -40.0 -20.0 .a 20.0 40.0 PRICE CHANGES [PERCENT] LEGEND LOW GROWTH RATE. UNCHANGED INCOME OrsTRrsurToN ------ -LOW GROWTH RATE. MORE EQUAL INCOME DXSTRIBUTION - - -- - -Ht0Gt OROIJTH RATE. UNCHANGED INCOME DISTRIBUTION - - - -- -NEOn GROWTH RATE. M1ORE EQUAL INCOME DISTRIBUTION CRt, RT nssUth.o hl?411UNl1 CA1LORIE REOUIRElI1ENT LEVEL CR-20DI AT 200 CSLQfUES LESS THFRl HtI:UflUM REffiltIfEMENT LEVFL Figure 7 INDONESIR 'ROJECTED INCOME OISTRIBUTION EFFECTS ON CALORIE COtNSUMPTION 1985 4250 LU 4000 b-" ° 3750 . EHigh GR c-J u~~~~~~~~~~~~ 3500 ~~~~~~~~~~~,~ow GR O 3250 a. 3000 2750 / oCtooo 1-- 2250 a- - - -ER r-I 1) 000 1750 -i1 0 1 0 3 0 S 0 7 o 9 0 -- - ItORE ASKEIJ INCOZIE OISTR16UTbON UNCHcNOED tNCOII£ OISTRIBUT Ot - - -- 11OR£ EWURL TNCOr.E DiSTRIBUTTOM 1014 ORt UI1TH LO)4 INCOME oOWOtH RRTE RSSUM1PTION HIOHI CRt 11TH HICH INCOJIE OROUTII naTE ASSUnPTlON Figure 8 INDONESIR 'ROJECTED INCOME DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS ON CRLORIE CONSUMPTION 1995 4250 - High GR LLJ 4000 _z 3750 _r- w < 4 Low GR 3500 3250 0..30100 2750 2500 225 a- 100 Ir- *750 T 0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 e0 SO 100 POPULRTION CPERCENT] LEGEND … - - - - - - -RVERRGE ORALY PER CRIFTR CALORIE REQUIREMENT -tR3E YEAR ---- MORE RSKEW ItCOME OISTRIBUTION UNCiHRACED INCOME UISTRIBUTION -tt - - - -MORE ECURL INCOME DISTRIEtUTION LOW CR% WITII LOW itNCOmE GROwTIl RnTE R:SUMPTION HIGH OR: WITHI HICII INCOME GROWTII I(FTE SSUHMP1IDN Figure 9 INOONESIR 'ROJECTED PRICE CHRNGE EFFECTS ON CALORIE CONlSUMPTION 1985 4250 U.J 4000 D 3750 , ."High GR Ca * J3600 O 25 o- w GR cD 3250 C 3000 2750 CD 2500 cc 225 O 2020 1750 -LJ 1000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 POPULATION CPERCENT] LEGEND RVERRGE DRILY PER CAPITA CALORIE REQUIREMENT BASE YEAR PRICE UtCHRNCEO - PRICE IHCREASEO BY S0 PERCENT ---- --PRICE 0ECREzSCO BY 60 PERCENT LOW CRQ NIThI LOW lVCnhE CROUTl1 RATE ASSUMPTION HIGH CR: WITl1 HIL:H INCOME GROWTII RATE fISSUIiPTION Figure 10 INOONESIR 'ROJECTED PRICE CHANGE EFFECTS ON CALORIE CONSUMPTION 1995 4250 ---High GR LU 4000 3750 / cc LovL GR L-3600 z c)3250 0 o 3000 2750 L:) Ir- 22 I50 0 1000 - BRSEYER -i - RIEIZRR B 0PECN PPLRSC£ [ BPERCENT) …oss IAVERAGtcnE DAOIYPR CAPTA CASn?LORERgURNN - - ASCE YARG - - -P-PURICEION:E BY50PERCENT) - - - - - - PRICE-DECRERSED BY 50 PERCENT LOUA CA: 1W1IT LOW INCOM1E OIROWTIi RnTE RSSUr.PTION HIGH GR: WIThi ItlGhl INCOMiE GROWTHI RATE ASS~UMPTION Figure 11 INOONESIR ROJECTED TOTAL FOOD NEEDS AND MARKET DEMAND IN GRAIN EQUIVALENTS 1985 65.0 62.5 z 60.0_ o _ .J 57.5 2= 55.0 z 2:52.5 LLJ50.0 2=47.5 Cl) -Z- - 4 .0_ - - Uu 42.5 40. U. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - Z _ J 37.- _ - - - CC _-- 35.0 -40.0 -20.0 .0 20.0 40.0 PRICE CHRNIGES [PERCENT] LEGEND TOTAL FOOO NEEOS WITH LON GRO'3TH RATE -…------ -MARKKET 0EANO RrTH LOtI GROWTH RATE - TOTnLt. FOOO NEEDS 11ITH lIIGH ORZ-JTH RATE - - - - - - IRRKET DElAtS WTTI 11HIOH 0GROWTH RRTE Figure 12 INOONESIR ROJECTED TOTAL FOOO NEEDS AND MARKET DEMANO IN GRAIN EGUIVALENTS 1995 Z EO.o -J_ .J 57.5 65.0 50.5 0 O- cc CC 4S.0 i 42.5 c 40.0 C,, 3S0 o 40. .J 97.6_ -40.0 -20.0 .0 20.0 40.0 PRICE CHRNGES [PERCENT] LEGENO TOTAL fOOO NEEDS WITH LOW GROUTH RRIE -…------ -nRRKET OEIIRNa WITH LOW QROUfIH RATE - - - - - - TOTAL FOOO NEEDS WITH HIOII 0ROUTH RATE MARKET DEh1R.IO UtTH HIOH GROWTH RRTE - PE TUNJUK-PETUNIUK UNTUK Umur 3-4 lahun Umur 4-S tahun IMUNISASIANTITUBERKULOSA(SCG 1-* PEMBERIAN MAKANAN YANG SEHAT 20 TaiA imunKM SJ 20 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Tvngail panaikluan hasilES M IMUNIAS CefukACAR Iui 18 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ e IMUNISASIcacAR *{1 1i m Selain KARTU MENUJU SEHAT TAnUAJI imfurlfiJ I ) Air Susu lbu hr.ui pcme,.ikiwn hatilI berika'ntah 17 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ Tan nuniuiAnpn makanan tambahan 16 _______________________________ ~~um ur 4 Bulan -- iMUNISASI POLIOMYELITIS A (, 15 Tanggai gmutnitl ke- I 1 ke-3 bubur teptng buuh t Tanggi imunisai ulainpn umur 6 Bulan I IMUNISASI VIPTERIAA PERTUSSIS, TETANUS AQPTI ' berIBU a 3 | ALASANIJNTUKKRliATIANKHUSUS ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ns I | | ja i tu & 2 aa aknnby 12 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Tsnuggimuniu,i ket ke-3 IP4+1~~~~~~~~~~~~~ np 1zd" *IMUNISASI KOLERA, TYPHUS A PARA-TYPHUS IENIS SAYUR-SYRN AKPU (KOTIPAI DAN BUAH-BUAHAN SEHAT . TanSal imunha,i ke I 8 -38- 40 42 44- 46.48 30 32- 34 56 3805 .k6i- TanUaj Imunisasi ulInang~ - ~ A KPUVITAMIN A -DOSIS TLNGGI (-j ALASAN ~~~~ PERHATIAN KHTngoUdUS ikn ke- AIRSUSU IBU ALASAN UNTUK PERHATIAN KHLISUS it.3 ~~~ialah makanan bayi yang terbaik ____ ____ ___ ____ ___ ____ ___ ____ ___ ____ ___ ____ d d . I8 I~. k e q w.IL. n4U . w UNTUK DOISI OLEU PETUGAS Kalau anak anda mencret, berikan dengan segera: ORALIT Klinik/Pos Pcnimbingan Kalau lidak ada, bisa membual sendiri. Campurlahs Umur 2-3 tahun Tanggal PendAfai + Ilu3kl 4 - W - H - No. PendaCtar n 2aIauIkali - _ _ t wndok.teh gula I ujung wndokdtdh goain. I gdas tch 1 - ……_ Setelah Ila; umur 1-2 un __ seliap kali i rmencret berikan tgi: 14… … … __ _ -14-_ _ _ . . _ .L. . ke=l a k i t * Jangal Lah------_r_ _-1kaIi3-_ _ ._ __- - - _ Laki-14ki l~~~~~~~tendok-tth l ujungwsnduk..Ich I Anakying T -ang-al----- - . Lah-_ ._ _ I _. _ PeFTeRAAKDLmpKLAGIIua ke-- 12 1 5_ _ _ 5 - __2 - _ S Umur0-1ltahun .-.i .- Berat SidanW%aktu Lahir grai- K……1- 1N1~~~~~~~~ga Ks 1L^|.,KtSS E -' Li' 10--…* Peeji - - - -i- - - - - --'- *-'l - -. -1H | -11p Pekeriain Afamai 7 - DAFTAR ANAK DALAM KELUARGA INI…-- N.1 Nam LkJP,.(hUmu, K.terangan ,..- SC_ts t ton hlnent> ' hdin a n tln nn h ny. TIMBANGLAH ANAK ANDA N |@. Fdnkicrn twtijulntfi ~ ~ ~ 4 - dfnSe trt4uw #nu