99629 CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 1 1. CPS Data Country: Côte d'Ivoire CAS/CPS Year: FY10 CAS/CPS Period: FY10-FY14 CLR Period: FY10-FY14 Date of this review: September 18, 2015 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory WBG Performance: Satisfactory Good 3. Executive Summary i. The FY10-FY13 CPS and its progress report closely followed a prolonged period of economic difficulties, internal political conflict and institutional deterioration. Consequently, the primary focus of the WBG's strategy was on economic recovery and reconstruction. The strategy was built around four pillars: strengthening governance and institutions, improving the performance of the agricultural sector, private sector development, and renewing infrastructure and basic services. The strategy was well aligned with the country's program and received strong government commitment. ii. While the challenges of the WBG's strategy were many, "Restoration of Peace" was key and a sine qua non for progress. The success achieved in reintegrating ex-combatants and youth at risk in economic activities was a major achievement. Equally, the improvement in the business climate for entrepreneurs was important. At the same time, significant WBG efforts to improve the financial health of the electricity sector had little impact, and progress towards improving basic social services and renewing basic infrastructure was partial. Overall, the outcome rating for the WBG's strategy is moderately satisfactory. iii. The WBG's program was not selective, covering virtually all elements of the government program. Though prepared before the adoption of the corporate goals of reducing poverty and increasing shared prosperity in a sustainable manner, the strategy was well aligned with these goals: its focus was on strengthening governance and institutions in a post-conflict situation, and on reducing poverty through increased rural incomes, improved living conditions and better social services. The design of the program and the results framework had shortcomings. It was never made clear whether the outcome indicators were indicators of outcomes at the country level (to which many actors, including the WBG, contribute) or indicators of the CPS contribution to higher level outcomes at the country level. In parallel, the results chain from WBG activity to outcome was not always clear and some of the indicators did not measure adequately the achievements of the objective. On the other hand, implementation support contributed to progress in many areas. On balance, WBG performance is rated good. CLR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CLR Review Coordinator Rene Vandendries, Consultant, Jorge Garcia- Monika Huppi, Acting Manager, IEGCC Garcia, Consultant, IEG Country, Corporate and Global Surajit Goswami, Consultant, IEGCC Evaluations IEGCC Takatoshi Kamezawa, Sr. Evaluation Officer, IEGCC CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 2 iv. The lessons in the completion report emphasize the need for sustained commitment and support from all parties, government and donors. This is true whether the support is for assistance to war-affected communities, public finance reform, and sector or business environment reform. IEG agrees with these lessons but would like to emphasize and to elaborate on the completion report’s final lesson i.e. the need for indicators to be measurable and available throughout the program for effective progress monitoring. Too many indicators may make it difficult to ensure all data is available. If indicators are not quantified it is difficult to make an objective judgment on achievement. Finally, it is important to make certain that the indicators actually measure the achievement of the objective. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. After several years of economic difficulties and, since 1999/2000 growing internal political conflict and institutional deterioration which split the country into two, a turning point was reached in 2007 with the signing of the Ouagadougou Political Accord and the establishment of a coalition interim government. The April 2010 CPS was prepared as the country was in the process of moving from post-conflict recovery to restoration of sustainable growth and poverty reduction. Then, a few months into the CPS period, disputed election results in November 2010 started a new round of political strife and violence which lasted until May 2011 when a new president was inaugurated. While the 2011 crisis delayed implementation of the CPS it did not change the strategy which also remained in essence the same in the 2012 Progress Report (PR). 2. Côte d'Ivoire's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for 2009-2015 was launched in 2008 and the strategy approved in 2009. The country's key challenges were identified as restoring peace, improving governance, improving the performance of the agriculture sector, revitalizing the private sector, strengthening infrastructure services, increasing pro-poor investments and building human capital, and regional integration. These challenges were grouped into four pillars. After the 2011 crisis and while the PRSP was still in implementation, the government decided to prepare a new National Development Plan (NDP) for 2012-2015. The NDP was framed into 5 pillars, covering in essence the same topics and challenges as the PRSP. The WBG's CPS and PR were designed in support of the PRSP and the NDP, and were built around its own 4 pillars, not precisely coinciding with but covering many of the elements in the PRSP and NDP pillars: the only area left out was regional and international integration. The 4 pillars of the WBG program were: i. strengthening governance and institutions; ii. improving the performance of the agricultural sector; iii. private sector development, and iv. renewing infrastructure and basic services. 3. Relevance of design. The WBG’s program responded to challenges identified by the Bank in its AAA where there was government commitment to address these challenges. The strategy was clearly well aligned with the government program covering nearly every aspect of it. The CPS went to great lengths illustrating this close alignment at least at the broad level of pillars. At the same time, the broad coverage resulted in an unfocussed Bank strategy where the results chain between WBG interventions and expected CPS outcomes was not always clearly established. . 4. The design of the WBG program had important shortcomings. There were 12 objectives (two additional cross-cutting objectives are essentially repetitive) and about 45 indicators of achievement which are mostly measurable. First, given the breadth of the WBG’s involvement and the large number of objectives the WBG’s strategy was unfocused. Second, the individual objectives were very broad. E.g. “improved transparency in the use of public financial resources”, “improved urban and rural living CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 3 conditions”, “improved basic social services”; this makes it very difficult to establish how the WBG activity contributed to the achievement of the objectives. Third, at the level of individual objectives, the results matrix is unclear. The outcome indicators are variously referred to in the strategy as “CPS contribution to outcomes” or “outcome to which the CPS will contribute”. In other words it is not clear whether the outcome indicators are indicators of outcomes at the country level to which many actors, including the WBG, contribute, or indicators of the CPS contribution to higher level outcomes at the country level. Finally, some of the indicators did not measure the achievement of the objective, e.g. the indicators for increased rural incomes i.e. reductions in the tax and other burdens on the cocoa sectors, could not measure whether incomes actually increased. 5. In addition, in some instances there is no link between World Bank activity and expected outcome because there does not appear to be any planned Bank input: examples include: " per hectare net revenue from plantain banana increases, “adding permanent jobs for 12,000 waste collectors". For IFC, linkages between its investments and CPS outcomes are sometimes not clear. For example, for Pillar 2, the PR indicated (paragraph 21) that the IFC was providing financing to major cocoa trading companies, but it was not clearly articulated how this was to lead to a significant increase in rural incomes. In other cases, the IFC program and its outcomes were well designed. For Pillar 3, IFC aimed at increasing SME lending through its client banks. IFC’s investments in the power sector, supported by MIGA guarantees, were expected to contribute to Pillar 4 through investments in generation capacity and development of natural gas supply. 6. Selectivity. As discussed above, the Bank's program was not selective. It covered virtually all elements of the government's program. As stated in the CPS (para 83): "The Bank will also be present in a number of sectors in the near term and will become more selective as more development partners reengage." It should be noted that at the very beginning of the CPS period very few donors were active in Côte d’Ivoire. The country’s needs were enormous and the WBG’s desire to assist wherever it could led to a lack of focus of the program. Other donors came on stream with substantial assistance shortly after approval of the CPS. 7. Alignment. The Bank's strategy was prepared before the Bank adopted the corporate goals of reducing poverty and increasing shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. Still the strategy complied with these goals. The first pillar of strengthening governance and institutions in Côte d'Ivoire is a sine qua non for increasing prosperity in a sustainable manner. Sharing this prosperity and reducing poverty can be achieved through increased rural incomes, improved urban and rural living conditions, and improved basic social services, all crucial objectives of the Bank strategy.  CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 4 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective 8. The Bank's program consisted of 4 pillars and a total of 12 objectives. Achievements have to be evaluated on the basis of the results of (approximately) 45 indicators. Ratings are provided for the 12 objectives and then aggregated into ratings for the four pillars. The overall outcome rating will be based on the outcome rating for the 4 pillars. PILLAR 1: Strengthening governance and institutions. 9. The overall goal here was to restore normalcy to the economy after years of political and civil unrest, by providing economic opportunities to war-affected populations, restore transparency in public finance, improve debt management and increase pro-poor public spending, and bring transparency to the main sectors of the economy. 10. Objective 1.1: Improve economic opportunities and access to social and public services for war- affected communities. There were 4 indicators, 3 of which were achieved: reintegration of more than 30,000 ex-combatants and youth at risk in economic activities and their participation in labor intensive works, modernization of the civil registry offices, and assistance to victims of sexual violence. The Bank supported these outcomes primarily through the FY11 Youth Employment and Skills Development and Post Conflict Reconstruction and Recovery projects. The remaining indicator, an improvement in gender inequality attitudes, was not measured. Overall, objective 1.1 is rated as mostly achieved. 11. Objective 1.2: Improve transparency in the use of public financial resources. There were 4 indicators: public access to principal budget information, comparability of actual versus budgeted expenditure, transparency in procurement, and improved procurement. Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) indicators were used to measure progress. The first two indicators were partially achieved while the ones pertaining to procurement were achieved. Bank assistance was provided through various projects as well as through a donor-supported Public Expenditure and Financial Management report. Overall, objective 1.2 is rated as partially achieved. 12. Objective 1.3: improve debt management and increase pro-poor spending. Both indicators were achieved. Reflecting the impact of debt relief under the HIPC and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiatives, the stock of external debt declined from 54.6 percent of GDP at end - 2011 to 30.5 percent of GDP at end - 2012. A subsequent debt sustainability analysis concluded that the risk of debt distress remained moderate which was the objective. The share of pro-poor spending was at about the targeted 9 percent Bank support for the objective came primarily from PRSC1 and the Post Conflict Reconstruction and Recovery grant. Overall, objective 1.3 is rated as achieved. 13. Objective 1.4: Increased financial transparency in key economic sectors. There were 3 indicators. First, the audited financial statements of public enterprises and institutions in cocoa, energy, and banking were to be published annually. This was done for cocoa and energy, and for the National Investment Bank. Second, subsidies to the electricity sector were not to exceed US$50 million by mid- 2014. This indicator was not achieved. The issue of electricity price reform is a major one, though not necessarily one of transparency. It must be added that, starting in July 2015 (i.e. subsequent to the evaluation period), the government has adopted electricity tariff increases to span over three years. Third, information on oil revenues was to be made public, which was done. Bank support for the objective came primarily through the policy proposals in PRSCs. Overall, and especially because of the failure to reduce electricity subsidies, objective 1.4 is rated as partially achieved. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 5 14. With two of the objectives under Pillar 1 having been achieved or mostly achieved and two partially achieved, the overall outcome for Pillar 1 is moderately unsatisfactory. PILLAR 2: Improving the performance of the agricultural sector 15. The overall goal here was to improve productivity in the sector and increase rural incomes. Protection of the environment was also included. 16. Objective 2.1: Increased use of new technologies for production of export and food crops. There were 3 indicators: all were achieved. The number of agricultural producers and agribusinesses that have adopted improved technologies and the number of hectares under new technologies both increased. Also, a survey conducted by an Agricultural Research Fund found that its projects achieved more satisfactory results than targeted. The Bank supported these achievements among others through the West Africa Agricultural Productivity project and sector dialogue. Objective 2.1 is rated as achieved. 17. Objective 2.2: Increased rural incomes. Cocoa is the main source of income for rural Ivorians and many of them live below the poverty line. Two of the 3 indicators of this objective were designed to measure reduction in the heavy taxation and other burdens on the sector so that the producer would retain a higher share of the producer price: a reduction in indirect taxation to no more than 22 percent of the CIF price and assurance that the share of the cocoa world price received by farmers is no less than 60% by 2014. Both indicators were fully met. It should be emphasized, however, that these indicators were not a good measure for the objective as they don’t per se provide an indication whether rural incomes increased. The results matrix in the completion report thus supplements this information by showing that the price of cocoa received by producers went from 750 FCFA/kg to FCFA 850/kg though it is not clear over what time period, nor does the gross price received necessarily guarantee an increase in rural incomes. The Bank supported these objectives primarily through the Economic Growth and Recovery Grant and the Post Conflict Recovery and Reconstruction projects. The third indicator, an increase in per hectare net revenues from plantain bananas by at least 20 percent by 2014, cannot be verified for lack of information. Although two of the three indicators were met, objective 2.2 is rated as partially achieved only as no clear evidence is provided that rural incomes indeed increased. 18. Objective 2.3: The sustainable management of the fauna and habitat of the Comoé National Park is improved. The two indicators were a reduction in the poaching of wildlife by end 2014 and a 60 percent reduction in illegal human activity in the park. Both targets were achieved. The completion report notes that it is unclear why this outcome was included as a priority in the post-conflict period in Côte d'Ivoire. Objective 2.3 is rated as achieved. 19. Two of the objectives under Pillar 2 were achieved while one objective was partially achieved. The overall outcome for this pillar is moderately satisfactory. PILLAR 3 : Private sector development 20. The purpose of this pillar was to begin to restore vitality in the private sector following years of crisis by focusing on the problems of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and on the business environment. 21. Objective 3.1: Improved access to credit for entrepreneurs and small business. The two indicators here were to expand access to finance to SMEs, such as through the SME Mutual Fund, by 10 percent annually and to enable SMEs to use matching grants amounting to $6 million to train and improve worker performance. One indicator was surpassed, the other virtually achieved. The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and the SME Revitalization and Governance project played important roles in these achievements. IFC contributed to this objective through investing in a greenfield CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 6 microfinance bank and developing SME lending portfolio with local banks. IFC was also innovative in structuring risk-sharing facilities with many local banks (in one using donor financing) that provided blended financing to SMEs. Objective 3.1 is rated as achieved. 22. Objective 3.2 Improved regulatory environment for business. There were 6 indicators, all quantified: number of days to settle commercial disputes; number of commercial court decisions published; time to establish a business; new SMEs registered; new SME jobs created; and, reduced racketeering costs. All were fully achieved, except the first which was partially achieved. Objective 3.2 is rated as mostly achieved. The CLR acknowledges that is difficult to attribute these results solely to the WBG program, nevertheless it is clear that the WBG’s interventions played a role in these achievements. 23. On balance, the overall outcome for Pillar 3 is satisfactory. PILLAR 4: Renewing infrastructure and basic services 24. The purpose of this pillar was to rehabilitate and upgrade essential basic infrastructure in the transport and electricity sectors, improve living conditions through better water and sanitation services, and strengthen the education and health sectors. 25. Objective 4.1 Essential basic infrastructure is rehabilitated, expanded or upgraded. There were several indicators: (1) A reduction in trade and transport barriers on roads along the Abidjan - Lagos corridor as evidenced by reduced border crossing time (target met), relatively fewer roadblocks (target met), and improved road quality (target not met); (2) a reduction in electricity losses (target met); and (3) 30000 additional electricity customers connected by end-2014 (target met). Several Bank operations provided input towards these objectives. IFC investments of over US$200 million in two generation plants, currently scheduled to be commissioned during 2015, are expected to further improvements in the sector via fewer losses and more customers. MIGA provided guarantees of over US$700 million to one of the plants and towards investments in exploration of natural gas for electricity generation. The overall picture suggests that objective 4.1 has to be rated as partially achieved, because there is no evidence that the road program is on track to meeting its target: the outcome of the FY08 Transport Sector Adjustment Investment Credit (closed in FY12) is rated moderately unsatisfactory. 26. Objective 4.2 Improved urban and rural living conditions. Of the three indicators, two -- an additional 1.2 million people get access to potable water by 2014, and an additional 0.5 million people benefit from improved sanitary conditions -- were achieved. The third -- 12000 waste collectors have permanent jobs by 2014 -- could not be verified for lack of information. The Bank's Urban Rehabilitation project was instrumental in the achievements. On balance, objective 4.2 is rated as mostly achieved. 27. Objective 4.3 improved basic social services. There were 7 indicators under this pillar, 4 related to educational achievements and 3 to HIV/AIDS control and treatment. Two education indicators on enrollment rates were essentially met but the targets of an increase in primary completion rates and a decline in repetition rates were not met. The completion report reviews the significant achievements in HIV/AIDS control and treatment, with all three targets having been met. However, neither the CPS or PR nor the completion report discuss the presumed links between Bank activity and those outcomes even though a FY08 HIV/AIDS project was implemented during that period. Objective 4.3 is rated as partially achieved. It is worth noting that CPS proposed follow-up projects in these areas, an Education for All- Fast Track Initiative, and a Decentralization and Local Development Project, did not materialize. 28. The overall outcome rating for this pillar is moderately unsatisfactory. 29. Overall assessment and development outcome rating. While the challenges of the WBG strategy were many, "Restoration of peace" was key and a sine qua non for any further progress. The success CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 7 achieved in reintegrating ex-combatants and youth at risk in economic activities and in their participation in labor intensive work was a major achievement. Equally, the improvements in the business climate for entrepreneurs were important. At the same time significant World Bank efforts to improve the financial health of the electricity sector had little effect. The ratings for the 4 pillars yield an overall outcome rating of moderately satisfactory. Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating PILLAR 1: Strengthening governance and Moderately institutions Unsatisfactory Outcome 1.1: Postwar economic opportunities Achieved Mostly Achieved Outcome 1.2: Transparency in public finance Achieved Partially Achieved Outcome 1.3: Debt management and pro-poor Partially Achieved Achieved spending Outcome 1.4: Transparency in economic Achieved Partially Achieved sector PILLAR 2: Improving the performance of Moderately Satisfactory the agricultural sector Outcome 2.1: Use of new technology Partially Achieved Achieved Outcome 2.2: Increased rural incomes Partially Achieved Partially Achieved Outcome 2.3: Sustainable forest management Achieved (tentative) Achieved PILLAR 3 : Private sector development Satisfactory Outcome 3.1: Access to credit Achieved Achieved Outcome 3.2: Business environment Achieved Mostly Achieved PILLAR 4: Renewing infrastructure and Moderately basic services Unsatisfactory Outcome 4.1: Basic infrastructure Partially Achieved Partially Achieved Outcome 4.2: Improved living condition Achieved Mostly Achieved Outcome 4.3: Improved social services Partially Achieved Partially Achieved 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 30. While the Bank had suspended IDA disbursement in 2004 because of arrears, it reengaged with the country in 2008 and by the beginning of the CPS period the Bank’s portfolio comprised 12 active projects with an undisbursed balance of around US$325 million (equal to about half of the original commitments for the 12 projects). New lending during FY10-14 was very much in line with planned lending at least in terms of the nature of projects. Throughout the period of the CPS and PR the focus was on economic recovery and reconstruction following the many years of internal strife. There was a hiatus in Bank activity in FY11 when no commitments were made because of the 2011 crisis. A total of US$630 million in IDA funds was committed during FY10-14 for 11 projects, considerably more than the indicative IDA plans of US$455 million in the CPS (Annex Table 2). 31. Over the period FY10-14 IEG reviewed ICRs for 8 projects exiting the portfolio; the outcome of 6 was rated moderately satisfactory or better, while one was rated moderately unsatisfactory and another highly unsatisfactory (Annex Table 5). The riskiness of the Bank's portfolio in Côte d'Ivoire was CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 8 higher than the average for the Africa region and considerably higher than for the Bank as a whole. At the same time, as suggested by Annex Table 7, there has been some improvement over time with only 2 out of ten projects at risk in FY13-14. An important risk factor has been the fragile political situation. 32. At the beginning of FY10, IFC had only one IFC investment project for US$38.4 million. During the FY10-FY14, IFC was able to increase its investment commitments to US$401.0 million with 20 more investments. Since Côte d'Ivoire was classified as Fragile and Conflict Situations (FCS) with a difficult environment for the private sector during FY10 – FY14, IFC’s increasing investment activities in the country supported IFC’s corporate goal of increasing its commitments to FCS and helped address the infrastructure needs of the country with rather large investments in the power sector. MIGA provided $878.9 million of guarantees in four distinct project activities. The CLR made no comments on the IFC portfolio although, according to IFC internal documents, at least a quarter of the portfolio currently merits a rating of “sub-standard” or worse. IEG has not reviewed any of the IFC investments. Analytical and Advisory Activities and Services 33. The Bank's analytical work and technical assistance have been crucial in helping the government design and implement its economic recovery and growth policies. Public finance discussions have been guided by a Public Expenditure Management and Financial Assessment Report (PEMFAR). The first PEMFAR was produced in 2008 to serve as a baseline on the state of public financial management. An updated assessment, PEMFAR II, was carried out in 2013. The FY12 "Growth Agenda: Building on Natural Resources and Exports" helped in the design of growth policies, while the FY10 Investment Climate Assessment clarified areas where action was urgent. Considerable technical assistance helped the country, among others, to reach the HIPC completion point. 34. IFC had no advisory services (AS) project approved before the review period. During the review period, IFC approved ten AS projects amounting to over US$11.7 million. One of these AS projects was terminated, and one closed during the review period and self-rated as Mostly Successful. Eight out of the above ten projects were approved after FY 12 and appear to be implemented as planned. The Results Framework 35. The results framework leaves much to be desired. The objectives are many and very broad suggesting that the program lacked focus. Thus, e.g. as noted in the CLR it is unclear why forest management was included as a priority in the post-conflict period in Côte d'Ivoire. There was not always a clear link between Bank interventions and expected outcomes. In addition, it is not made clear in the results framework whether the outcome indicators are indicators of outcomes at the country level (to which many actors, including the WBG, contribute) or indicators of the CPS contribution to higher level outcomes at the country level. In parallel the results chain from WBG activity to outcome is often unclear. Finally, the indicators chosen do not always present a good measurement of the objective, such as in the case of increased rural incomes, where the indicators only measure steps towards the objective. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 36. As discussed in the completion report there has been good coordination and cooperation with a great variety of development partners Following the 2011 crisis the government organized a Consultative Group meeting in Paris in Dec. 2012, with the support of the Bank and the UN. At that time the government committed to create a formal framework to coordinate donor support. Consequently monthly meetings were held, chaired by the EU, to exchange information on the donors' CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 9 respective programs. There was also close coordination at the project level as evidenced by the Bank, IMF, and EU coordination in the design of the budget support operations. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 37. Environmental safeguards were triggered in several sectors during the CPS period. In the Health and Urban Development sectors, environmental safeguards were satisfactorily complied with. In the Transport sector, because of weak safeguard capacity of the project coordinating unit and implementing agencies, most environmental and social safeguard activities were lagging behind by the mid-term review. However, by end of the project (Transport Sector Adjustment and Investment Program), the social and environmental management capacity was significantly strengthened in all implementing agencies, and a major outcome of the project was the general mainstreaming of safeguards in road contracts in the country. In the Education and Environment sectors, two projects experienced changes in their environmental category at restructuring. The Education and Training Support project was classified Category “C” at appraisal, then changed to Category “B” due to included school construction. The post-project environmental audit showed that the project complied with safeguards requirements. The Rural Land Management project changed its Category from “A” to “B” due to “the benign effects predicted from project activities.” However, the implementation of safeguards was assessed as moderately unsatisfactory because there was no evidence that the environmental plan was applied and beneficiaries were not trained in the safe use of pesticides. Ownership and Flexibility 38. There was broad commitment by government and all partners to the recovery and reform efforts, and this commitment remained throughout the period under review. The 2011 crisis temporarily interrupted the program but did not change it. WBG Internal Cooperation 39. The completion report does not explicitly discuss this but gives many examples of close internal working relationships. In the Bank's efforts to improve the performance of the agricultural sector (Pillar II), IFC investments in agribusiness (e.g. cocoa trading companies) made important contributions. IFC investments in local banks to improve access to finance for SMEs were crucial to strengthen the private sector (Pillar III). The government's strategy to promote public private partnerships was supported jointly by the Bank and IFC. Both IFC and MIGA have been involved in programs to upgrade infrastructure facilities (Pillar IV). On the other hand, in some areas WBG internal cooperation may have been limited. Thus, the results matrix says little about IFC activities and there is no discussion of IFC’s investing in the power sector while no progress was being made on electricity pricing issues which were at the core of the Bank’s engagement in the sector. Risk Identification and Mitigation 40. The CPS and PR identified 3 main risks (political/exogenous shocks/fiduciary) which the WBG has dealt with constructively during CPS implementation. The focus has been on rehabilitation and job creation to promote political stability, on enhanced good governance and public financial management to strengthen resilience to exogenous shocks, and on training to improve project management. But all three risks remain relevant. 41. First, the political situation is still fragile. This risk is mitigated by the fact that, in spite of all political disagreements, support for the economic recovery and reform program is shared by all political parties. But the political environment requires continued monitoring. CLR Review For Official Use Only Independent Evaluation Group 10 42. Second, exogenous shocks and commodity price risks could undermine economic stability, growth and poverty reduction. This risk is mitigated by the fact that the government's recent track record in economic management has been very constructive, as well as by the continued strong support for the country from the donor community and continued close monitoring by the IMF and the Bank. 43. Third, project management and fiduciary risks also need to be given close attention. The risk is mitigated by Bank project implementation support to help establish mechanisms that ensure accuracy in financial reporting, audit and disbursement. Overall Assessment and Rating 44. Design: The Bank's program was closely aligned with the government's plans, and designed to address the priorities of rehabilitation and recovery after many years of civil strife. It was well- coordinated with other donors and backed by solid analytical work. The risks to the program were well identified. One major shortcoming was a results framework with many overly broad objectives which made it difficult to establish how the WBG activity contributed to the achievement of the objective. In addition, some of the indicators did not measure adequately the achievement of the objective. 45. Implementation: Implementation was smooth. Bank commitments far exceeded original plans as the Bank endeavored to provide as much assistance as possible to a country in dire needs. The risks to the program were monitored constantly. The CLR does not discuss the degree of collaboration between the Bank, IFC and MIGA. 46. Conclusion: IEG rates WBG performance as good. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 47. The completion report is comprehensive and covers well the multitude of areas of Bank involvement. This same multitude led to some internal inconsistencies such as those on the ratings for outcomes 1.3 and 1.4 between text, text tables, and annex tables, and the data on pro-poor spending in the text versus those in the annex tables. 48. The CLR should have discussed to what extent country level results were attributable to WBG interventions. 8. Findings and Lessons 49. The lessons in the completion report emphasize the need for sustained commitment and support from all parties, government and donors. This is true whether the support is for assistance to war-affected communities, public finance reform, and sector or business environment reform. IEG agrees with these lessons but would like to emphasize and to elaborate on the completion report’s final lesson i.e. the need for indicators to be measurable and available throughout the program for effective progress monitoring. Too many indicators may make it difficult to ensure all data is available. If indicators are not quantified it is difficult to make an objective judgment on achievement. Finally, it is important to make certain that the indicators actually measure the achievement of the objective. Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 11 Annex Table 1: Summary Achievements of CAS/CPS Objectives Annex Table 2: Côte d’Ivoire Planned and Actual Lending, FY10-14 Annex Table 3: Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY10-FY14 for Côte d’Ivoire ($M) Annex Table 4: Analytical and Advisory Work for Côte d’Ivoire, FY10 - FY14 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Côte d’Ivoire, FY10-Present Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Côte d’Ivoire, FY10-14 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Côte d’Ivoire and Comparators, FY11-14 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Côte d’Ivoire, FY10-14 Annex Table 9: List of IFC Investments in Côte d'Ivoire Investments Committed in FY10-FY15 Investments Committed pre-FY10 but active during FY10-15 Annex Table 10: List of IFC Advisory Services for Côte d’Ivoire Advisory Services Approved in FY10-15 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY11 but active during FY10-15 Annex Table 11: List of MIGA Activities Côte d’Ivoire Annex Table 12: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Côte d’Ivoire Annex Table 13: Economic and Social Indicators for Côte d’Ivoire, 2010 - 2014 Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 13 Annex Table 1: Summary Achievements of CAS/CPS Objectives CPS FY10-FY14: Pillar 1 - Actual Results Strengthening Governance Comments (as of current month/year) and Institutions CPS Objective 1.1: Improved economic opportunities and access to social and public services for war- affected communities Indicator: Number of ex- As of December 31, 2013 i) 31,651 persons Source: CLR combatants, individuals had participated in economic reintegration associated with an armed activities; and (ii) 23,456 persons had The CPS objective was group, and youth-at-risk that participated in labor-intensive public works. reformulated at the CPSPR have participated in economic stage. reintegration activities and / or labor intensive public works. Baseline: 6,700 economic reintegration activities (2009); 0 labor intensive public works (2009). Target: 30,000 economic reintegration activities (2014); 29,000 labor intensive public works (2014). Indicator: Number of victims of The average number of victims assisted in the Source: CLR sexual violence receiving area of direct intervention under Protection of assistance appropriate to their Gender Violence Project was 110 per month, The indicator was needs on a monthly basis in the from 39 victims per month at the start of the reformulated at the CPSPR area of direct intervention project in 2012. This represents a 282% stage. increase. Baseline: 39 victims/month The baseline date reported Major (2010) does not match the baseline Outcome Target: 110 victims/month date proposed at the CPSPR Measures (2012) stage when the indicator was formulated. Indicator: A statistical The CLR reports that the study was not Source: CLR significant change of about carried out as it would yet be premature to 30% (baseline vs end line) in assess results. The indicators was the gender inequitable attitudes introduced at the CPSPR index attributed to the program, stage. as per 2013 impact evaluation Baseline: Target: Indicator: Percentage of civil As of December 2013, all 93 civil registry Source: CLR registry offices having their civil offices (sous prefectures) had been updated, registry updated, modernized modernized and operational. This represent The indicators was and operational. 100% of the total number of civil registry introduced at the CPSPR offices. stage. Baseline: 0% (2009) Target: 70% (2014) CPS Objective 1.2: Improved transparency in the use of public financial resources Indicator: Public has access to As of 2013, the PI-10 rating was B. The CLR Source: CLR and PEFA principal budget information on reports that 4 out of the 6 records are now Report 2013 a regular basis as evidenced by accessible to the public. The 2013 Public an increase in the PEFA Expenditure and Financial Accountability The target date was indicator PI-10. (PEFA) is the more recent assessment. reformulated at the CPSPR stage. Baseline: C (2008) Target: A (2014) Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 14 CPS FY10-FY14: Pillar 1 - Actual Results Strengthening Governance Comments (as of current month/year) and Institutions Indicator: Composition of As of 2013, the PI-2 was rated C+. Source: CLR and PEFA actual expenditure as Report 2013 compared to the approved budget is measurable, as The target date was evidenced by an increase in the reformulated at the CPSPR PEFA indicator PI-2. stage. Baseline: Not rated (2008) Target: A (2014) Indicator: Integrity and The NAPRA was created in 2009 and became Source: CLR transparency of the effectively operational in 2011. procurement process is improved as evidenced by the National Public Procurement Regulatory Authority (NAPRA) being operational Baseline: NAPRA not operational (2010) Target: NAPRA operational (2014) Indicator: Competition, value As of 2013, the PI-19 was rated B+. Source: CLR and PEFA for money and controls in Report 2013 procurement is improved as evidenced by the PEFA indicator PI-19. Baseline: C (2008) Target: B (2014) CPS Objective 1.3: Improved debt management and increased pro-poor spending Indicator: Risk of debt distress The CLR reports that Côte d’Ivoire remains at Source: CLR remains moderate as a moderate risk of debt distress. The stock of evidenced by government external debt declined from 54.6% of GDP at remaining current on debt end-2011 to 30.5% of GDP at end-2012 service primarily reflecting the impact of debt relief under the HIPC and Multilateral Debt Relief Baseline: Not available Initiative when Cȏte d’Ivoire reached the HIPC completion point in June 2012. Following an Target: Yes (2014) agreement in late 2012 on a repayment plan for all remaining arrears with commercial creditors, Cȏte d’Ivoire normalized its relations with external creditors. As a result, the Government remains current on the debt service. Indicator: Share of pro-poor Share of pro poor spending increased to 9.9% Source: CLR spending increases as a of GDP in 2011, but contracted to 7.8% in percentage of GDP 2012 and grew to 8.8% in 2013 and 9.7% in 2014. It is projected to be 9.3% of GDP by the Baseline: 7.8% (2009) end of 2015. Target: 9% (2014) CPS Outcome 1.4: Increased financial transparency in key economic sectors Indicator: Annual publication Accounts of Cocoa enterprises (FRC, BCC, Source: CLR of the audited financial ARCC and FDPCC) published on web site of statements of public Ministry of Economy and Finance. The accounts of the State Holding in the oil sector, Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 15 CPS FY10-FY14: Pillar 1 - Actual Results Strengthening Governance Comments (as of current month/year) and Institutions enterprises and institutions in PETROCI, were audited and published in the cocoa, energy and banking main newspapers. The accounts of the National Investment Bank (Banque Nationale Baseline: No (2010) d’Investissement – BNI) have also been Target: Yes (2014) audited and published. Indicator: Subsidies to the Subsidy to electricity sector in budget for 2014 Source: CLR electricity sector was US$88 million. Baseline: Not provided Target: ≤ US$50m (mid-2014) Indicator: Information on oil Information contained in annual EITI reports Source: CLR revenues generated and their (2008-2012) validated and published. The allocation are published authorities continued to publish quarterly annually following EITI reports on oil revenues through the Ministry of guidelines Finance web’s site. The EITI National Committed launched the preparation of the Baseline: No 2013-2014 EITI reports (see Target: Yes http://www.cnitie.ci/articles?_news=108-avis- appel-offre-international ) Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 16 CPS FY10-FY14: Pillar 2: Actual Results Improving the Performance Comments (as of current month/year) of the Agricultural Sector CPS Objective 2.1: Increased use of new technologies for production of export and food crops Indicator: Number of As of May 2015, 150,000 producers have Source: CLR agriculture producers and adopted new technologies. agribusinesses that have The target was revised adopted improved technologies upwards at the CPSPR increases stage. Baseline: 0 (2010) Target: 63,000 (2014) Indicator: Number hectares As of May 2015, 137,000 hectares were under Source: CLR under new technologies new technologies. The target was revised Baseline: 0 (2010) upwards at the CPSPR stage. Target: 57,000 (2014) Indicator: Percentage of A survey has been conducted in 2014 on a Source: CLR projects financed by FIRCA sample of 36 projects financed by FIRCA (Fond Interprofessionnel pour (Fond Interprofessionnel pour la Recherche et The target date was updated la Recherche et le Conseil le Conseil Agricole) and concluded that 80% at the CPSPR stage. Agricole) that have received are satisfactory. satisfactory results as There is no information on evidenced by evaluation whether the sample was surveys in 2014 representative of the universe from which it was drawn. Baseline: Not provided Target: 75% (2014) Major CPS Objective 2.2: Increased rural incomes Outcome Indicator: Cocoa farmers Taxes were estimated at 20% of the CIF price Source: CLR Measures retain increased share of in the 2012/2013 season. revenues as evidenced by the overall indirect taxation of the cocoa sector as a percentage of the CIF price Baseline: 32% of the CIF price Target: No more than 22% of the CIF price Indicator: Share of the cocoa Farmers received 60% of CIF price in the Source: CLR and Country word price received by farmers 2012/2013 season, compared to less than Team. 45% in the 2002-2008 seasons. Price to Baseline: Not provided farmers increased from 750 FCFA / Kg in 2013/14 to 850FCFA / kg, which is higher than Target: No less than 60% by 60% CIF price. 2014 Indicator: Per hectare net No results reported. Source: CLR revenues from plantain banana increase by at least 20 % by 2014 Baseline: No Target: Yes (2014) CPS Objective 2.3: The sustainable management of the fauna and habitat of the Comoé National Park is improved Indicator: Poaching of wildlife Baseline value was from 15 January 2010 and Source: CLR reduced was 2.9 incidents/10 km (based on a transect Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 17 CPS FY10-FY14: Pillar 2: Actual Results Improving the Performance Comments (as of current month/year) of the Agricultural Sector survey). The final measure (from 31 Dec. The target date was updated Baseline: No 2014) was 0.75 incidents/10 km (a 74% at the CPSPR stage. reduction). This was one of the more notable Target: Yes (2014) achievements of the project. Indicator: 60 % reduced illegal The poaching indicator above is itself a good Source: CLR human activity in park measure of illegal activities and the second is the presence of livestock in the park, a good Baseline: No proxy for illegal human activities in the park. This indicator went from 28.01 animals/10 km Target: Yes (2014) (15 January 2010) to 0.3 animals/10 km at end of December 2014, a virtually complete removal of cattle and livestock from the park, as a result of enhanced patrolling and dialogue with community leaders. Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 18 CPS FY10-FY14: Pillar 3 - Actual Results Comments Private Sector development (as of current month/year) Major CPS Outcome 3.1: Improved access to credit for entrepreneurs and small businesses Outcome Indicator: Finance and Credit The MCF-PME started operations in 2012, Source: CLR Measures Mutual increases lending to with support of the IDA SME project. During SMEs by 10% annually the first year (2012), the institution granted 13 loans for a total FCFA 95.22 million. In 2013 Baseline: No (data as of November 2013) 21 loans have been approved for a total of FCFA152.39 Target: Yes (2014) million. This corresponds to an increase of 60% in lending volumes and 61% in the number of loans between 2012 and 2013. The increase in lending was sustained above the set 10% target also in 2013-2014, with an increase of 14.3%. Indicator: SMEs use matching The FARE matching grant was established in Source: CLR grants amounting to $6 million 2010. From 2010 to 2013 it approved 100 to train and improve worker projects with a total investment (from FARE performance and SMEs) of FCFA 2,477 million (or US$ 4.95 million). As of the end of 2014, the FARE Baseline: No matching grant achieved a 97% disbursement rate. This was in line with the investment Target: Yes (2014) estimated based on the projects approved between 2010 and 2013, but below the original $6 million target as of end 2014. CPS Objective 3.2: An improved regulatory environment for business Indicator: Number of days to According to the Doing Business 2014 report, Source: CLR settle a commercial dispute the time to settle a commercial dispute has been reduced in 2012/2013 from 770 to 585 Baseline: 770 days (2009) days. The report also gives the time of trial and judgment which fell from 365 to 210 days, Target: 450 (2014) while enforcement of judgment (which is beyond the scope of the Commercial Court) fell from 380 to 350 days. Indicator: Percentage of The Commercial Court of Abidjan published Source: CLR commercial court decisions 95.5% of decisions taken on its website published on the internet (based on information from the Commercial The target date was updated Court). at the CPSPR stage. Baseline: 0% (2009) Target: to 95% (2014) One Stop Shop One Stop Shop Source: CLR Indicator: Time to establish a Information from Government indicates that business in the One Stop Shop the One-Stop Shop establishes a business in The indicator was introduced is 29 hours (2014). 24 hours. at the CPSPR stage. Baseline: Not provided Time to Establish A Firm Target: 29 hours (2014) According to the 2015 Doing Business Report, which includes 2014 data, the One-Stop Shop Time to Establish A Firm registration plus the publication of the legal Indicator: Time to establish a notice take a total of 3 days, and is expected firm from 32 to 8 days to fall further in the 2016 Doing Business Report. Baseline: 32 days Target: 8 days Indicator: Number of new Between end-2012 and 2014, 7,447 have Source: CLR SMEs registered at the One been registered at the One Stop Shop. Stop Shop The target date was updated at the CPSPR stage. Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 19 CPS FY10-FY14: Pillar 3 - Actual Results Comments Private Sector development (as of current month/year) Baseline: Not provided Target: 1,000 (2014) Indicator: Number of new While direct attribution is difficult to establish, Source: CLR registered SMEs benefiting new firms registered in the One-Stop-Shop from matching grants and MCF have created potentially 20,000 jobs. The target date was updated result in 10,000 new jobs at the CPSPR stage. Baseline: No Target: Yes (2014) Indicator: Transport costs due Racketeering costs fell from 35 FCFA/metric Source: CLR to racketeering reduced by ton/km at project start (2010) to 12.64 25% annually FCFA/metric ton/km in 2011 according to an The indicator was ENSEA study. According to a 2014 study, reformulated at the CPSPR Baseline: 20 FCFA/ton racketeering costs further declined to FCFA stage. kilometer in 2010 10.2/metric ton/km in 2013 (according to a Target: 4 FCFA/ton kilometer 2014 study). in 2014 Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 20 CPS FY10-FY14: Pillar 4 - Actual Results Renewing Infrastructure and Comments (as of current month/year) Basic Services CPS Objective 4.1: Essential basic infrastructure is rehabilitated, expanded or upgraded Transport (i) As of 2014, the border crossing time at Source: CLR Indicator: Trade and transport Elubo-Noé was 34 hours. barriers are reduced on roads (ii) As of 2014, the number of roadblocks 5 The baselines and targets along Abidjan-Lagos corridor (compared to 18 in 2011) were revised at the CPSPR as evidenced by (i) reduced (iii) 15 km of roads on corridor in good stage. border crossing time at Elubo- condition (against target of 50Km Noé; (ii) ratio of roadblocks to official checkpoints along the corridor; (iii) improved quality of roads Baseline: (i) border crossing time at Elubo-Noé 37 hours (2010); (ii) not provided; (iii) 0Km of rehabilitated roads (2010). Target: (i) border crossing time at Elubo-Noé 35 hours (2014); (ii) less than 7 by end 2014; (iii) 50Km of rehabilitated roads (2014). Electricity (i) Losses were reduced by 3% in 2013. Total Source: CLR Indicator: (i) Percentage of national distribution losses were cut by a physical losses (ii) additional further 2% in 2014 The baselines and targets customers connected (ii) An additional 8,000 customers were were revised at the CPSPR Major connected by end 2013 and 23,000 new stage. Outcome Baseline: (i) 31% in 2012; (ii) customers added under UERP in 2014 out of Measures not provided 102,000 in total nationwide. Target: (i) 29.9% by mid-2014; (ii) 30,000 additional customers connected by end 2014. CPS Objective 4.2: Improved urban and rural living conditions Indicator: Water and sanitation (i) 1.32 million additional people get access to Source: CLR services, drainage potable water by 2014 infrastructure and waste (ii) 483,000 additional people have access to The baselines and targets management and disposal an improved sanitation system with the were revised at the CPSPR restored as evidenced by (i) rehabilitation of existing network and stage. additional people with access construction of 38 km of new sewage to potable water; (ii) additional networks through 2014. people benefiting from improved sanitary conditions in targeted areas: Baseline: (i) 3.2 million (2008); (ii) 2.9 million (2008). Target: (i) 4.4 million (2014); (ii) 3.4 million or 500,000 additional people (2014) Indicator: Number of waste No results reported. Source: CLR collectors with permanent jobs The target was revised at the Baseline: Not provided. CPSPR stage. Target: 12,000 (2014) CPS Objective 4.3: Improved basic social services Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 21 CPS FY10-FY14: Pillar 4 - Actual Results Renewing Infrastructure and Comments (as of current month/year) Basic Services Education 103.2% (2014) Source: CLR Indicator: Gross enrollment rate in 1st grade The target was upwards at the CPSPR stage. Baseline: 71% (2008) Target: 89% (2014) Education 95.4% (2014) Source: CLR Indicator: Gross enrollment rate in primary The target was upwards at the CPSPR stage. Baseline: 74% (2008) Target: 91% (2014) Education 60.4% (2014) Source: CLR Indicator: Primary completion rate The target was upwards at the CPSPR stage. Baseline: 46% (2008) Target: 62% (2014) Education 16% (2014) Source: CLR Indicator: Repetition rate The target date was revised Baseline: 22% (2008) at the CPSPR stage. Target: 14% (2014) HIV/AIDS 29.7 % (women – 2012) Source: CLR Indicator: use of condoms 35.7 % (men - 2012) among women and men 15-49 (Most recent data available). The target dates were years having had more than 1 revised at the CPSPR stage. sexual partner in past year Baseline: women 12% (2008); men 30% (2008) Target: women 14% (2012); men 31% (2012) HIV/AIDS 44% (2012) Source: CLR Indicator: Number of HIV- 76.7 (2013) infected pregnant women 92% (2014) The target date was revised received complete ARV at the CPSPR stage. treatment to reduce risk of mother-to-child transmission Baseline: 60% (2008) Target: 75% (2012) HIV/AIDS 109,925 (2012) Source: CLR Indicator: Adults and children 133,788 (2013) with advanced HIV infection 163,004 (2014) The target was revised receiving antiretroviral therapy upwards at the CPSPR stage. Baseline: 46,000 (2008) Target: 89,000 (2012) Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 22 Annex Table 2: Côte d’Ivoire Planned and Actual Lending, FY10-14 Project ID Project name Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Approved Outcome FY FY FY Amount IDA Rating * ($M) Amount ($M) Project Planned Under CPS / CPSPR FY10-14 P115398 SME Revitalization and Governance 2010 2010 2015 15.0 15.0 LIR: S Grant P117281 Economic Governance and Recovery 2010 2010 2011 90.0 90.0 IEG: MS Grant III P120810 CI-Emergency Urban (ADDITIONAL 2010 2010 2014 15.0 50.0 AF / No FINANCING) Rating Not Available West Africa Agricultural Productivity 2 2010 2011 Not 10.0 10.0 Not Available Available Not Available EGRG IV 2011 DROPPED DROPPED 40.0 DROPPED DROPPED P122546 Employment and Training 2011 2012 2019 35.0 50.0 LIR: MS Opportunities for Youth P116323 3A-Abidjan-Lagos Trade and Transp- 2011 2012 2018 20.0 20.0 LIR: S APL-2 (REGIONAL PROJECT) P113266 West Africa Power Pool Program 2011 2012 2020 10.0 10.0 LIR: MS P122800 CI-Post-conflict Reconst. & Recov. 2012 2012 2013 36.6 ** 150.0 IEG: MS Grant I P124715 Infrastructure Renewal 2012 2012 2017 36.6 ** 100.0 LIR: S Not Available Agricultural Productivity and Export 2012 DROPPED 36.6 ** DROPPED DROPPED Promotion Not Available PRSG II 2013 DROPPED DROPPED 27.5 ** DROPPED DROPPED Not Available Decentralization and local 2013 DROPPED DROPPED 27.5 ** DROPPED DROPPED development Not Available Growth & Competitiveness 2013 DROPPED DROPPED 27.5 ** DROPPED DROPPED Not Available Economic Infrastructure Renewal 2013 DROPPED DROPPED 27.5 ** DROPPED DROPPED P127449 PRSG I 2014 2014 2014 Not 50.0 LIR: MS Available P119308 Agriculture Sector Support Project 2014 2014 2018 Not 50.0 LIR: MS Available P144762 Post Conflict Assistance Project 2014 2014 Not Not 30.0 AF / No (ADDITIONAL FINANCING) Available Available Rating Total Planned 455.0 625.0 Unplanned Projects during the CPS and CPSPR Period P147016 CI Governance and Institutional 2014 5.0 Development (ADDITIONAL FINANCING) Total Unplanned 5.0 Total Planned and Unplanned 630.0 during FY11-14 On-going Projects during the CPS and CPSPR Approval Closing Approved Period FY FY IDA Amount P071631 CI-Emerg Multi-Sect HIV/AIDS Proj 2008 2013 20.0 IEG: MS (FY08) P110020 CI-Emergency Urban Infrast. ERL 2008 2014 94.0 IEG: S (FY08) P082817 CI-Post-Conflict Assistance (FY08) 2008 2016 120.0 LIR: S P107355 CI-Governance and Institutional Dev. 2008 2017 13.0 LIR: S Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 23 P112368 CI:EGRG-Econ Governance & 2009 2010 150.0 IEG: MS Recovery Grant II P001177 CI-Transp Sec Adj 1998 2012 180.0 IEG: MU P035655 CI-Edu & Training Supt (FY98) 1998 2013 53.3 IEG: S P064851 TRANSPORT SEC. ADJ. 1999 2012 25.6 AF / No Rating P070902 TRANSP SECTOR ADJ. 2000 2012 21.2 AF / No SUPPLEMENTAL Rating P077568 Supplemental Credit Transport 2002 2012 12.0 AF / No Project Rating P112573 CI - Urgent Electr. Sector Rehab. 2009 2015 50.0 LIR: MU (FY09) P001194 CI-IVC PNGTER Rural Land 1997 2011 41.0 IEG: HU Management Total On-going 780.1 Source: Côte d’Ivoire CPS, CPSPR and AO as of 6/30/15 *LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. ** Proposed amount was not specified at the CPS stage. However, the total amount for the FY was proposed. This total amount was prorated among the originally proposed projects. Annex Table 3: Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY10-FY14 for Côte d’Ivoire ($M) Project PROJECT NAME TT APPROVAL CLOSING APPROVED ID ID FY FY AMOUNT P149801 REDD+ Readiness Preparation in RCI TF 18008 2015 2018 3.80 P124076 Parliament Capacity Building TF 14322 2014 2017 0.50 P145750 Social Inclusion and Improvement of Livelihoods of Youth, TF 15096 2014 2018 2.70 Vulnerable Women and Handicapped in Post Conflict Western Côte d’Ivoire P131778 Obsolete Pesticides Management Project TF 15059 2014 2016 0.15 P119328 Emergency Basic Education Support Project - GPEF TF 12500 2013 2016 41.40 Grant P110527 Support for the Accountancy Profession in Côte d’Ivoire TF 96136 2010 2013 0.40 P116456 Côte d’Ivoire Mineral Sector Institutional Capacity Building TF 96574 2010 2014 0.50 IDF P110728 Protection from gender-based violence in Côte d’Ivoire TF 95955 2010 2012 2.05 P111290 Ivory Coast Protected Area Project TF 94483 2010 2015 2.54 P117098 Strengthening communication and transparency for TF 95127 2010 2013 1.40 governance reforms P116120 Côte d’Ivoire Support for Young Entrepreneurs and Urban TF 94234 2010 2013 2.50 Job Creation P106341 Côte d’Ivoire: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative TF 93112 2009 2012 0.17 Implementation P114941 CI - LICUS Support to the Peace Process TF 93570 2009 2010 0.35 P115148 CI-Data Collection; Cap. Bldg. for PRS-LICUS TF 93687 2009 2011 1.00 P108809 Support to the safeguard and modernization of civil TF 92003 2008 2011 2.06 registry P110728 Protection from gender-based violence in d’Ivoire TF 91646 2008 2010 0.73 P108808 Youth Employment Pilot TF 91018 2008 2011 2.22 Total 64.47 Source: Client Connection as of 7/2/15 Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 24 Annex Table 4: Analytical and Advisory Work for Côte d’Ivoire, FY10 - FY14 Project ECONOMIC AND SECTOR WORK FY OUTPUT TYPE ID P096223 Investment Climate Survey Report FY10 Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) P096233 CI-Health CSR (FY10) FY10 Health Sector Review P109584 CI-Poverty Assessment FY10 Poverty Assessment (PA) P114715 DeMPA Assessment - Côte d'Ivoire FY10 General Economy, Macroeconomics, and Growth Study P109585 CI-Sources of Growth FY11 General Economy, Macroeconomics, and Growth Study P133048 MTDS Côte D'Ivoire FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type P122399 CI: ICT for Export Diversification FY12 "How-To" Guidance P119303 Côte d Ivoire - Use of Country System FY13 Not assigned P123302 CI-PPP Market Development FY14 Not assigned P133266 Industrial Zones FY14 Not assigned Source: AO Table ESW/TA 1.4 as of 7/7/15 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Côte d’Ivoire, FY10-Present EXIT Project PROJECT NAME TOTAL IEG OUTCOME IEG RISK TO FY ID EVALUATED DO ($M) 2010 P112368 CI:EGRG-Econ Governance& Recovery Grant II 143.9 MODERATELY SATISFACTORY HIGH 2011 P001194 CI-IVC PNGTER Rural Land Management 32.1 HIGHLY UNSATISFACTORY HIGH 2011 P117281 CI-EGRG-Econ. Gov. & Recovery 3 86.7 MODERATELY SATISFACTORY HIGH 2012 P001177 CI-Transp Sec Adj 229.1 MODERATELY UNSATISFACTORY MODERATE 2013 P035655 CI-Edu & Training Supt (FY98) 59.8 SATISFACTORY MODERATE 2013 P071631 CI-Emerg Multi-Sect HIV/AIDS Proj (FY08) 19.0 MODERATELY SATISFACTORY MODERATE 2013 P122800 CI-Post-conflict Reconst. & Recov. Grant 146.2 MODERATELY SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT 2014 P110020 CI-Emergency Urban Infrast. ERL (FY08) 138.9 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT Total 855.7 Source: AO Key IEG Ratings as of 6/30/15 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Côte d’Ivoire, FY10-14 Region Total Total Outcome Outcome RDO % RDO % Evaluated Evaluated % Sat ($) % Sat (No) Moderate Or Moderate Or ($M) (No) Lower Lower Sat ($) Sat (No) Côte D'Ivoire 855.7 8 69.5 75.0 36.0 37.5 Africa 19,350.8 397 70.7 65.1 39.0 35.8 World 113,808.7 1,326 82.0 69.7 63.2 50.1 Source: AO IEG Bank and Borrower Performance as of6/30/15 * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 25 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Côte d’Ivoire and Comparators, FY11-14 FISCAL YEAR 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 AVERAGE Côte D'Ivoire # Proj 15 11 13 10 10 12 # Proj At Risk 4 3 4 2 2 3 % Proj At Risk 26.7 27.3 30.8 20.0 20.0 25.4 Net Comm Amt 784.4 651.8 761.7 538.6 479.6 643.2 Comm At Risk 403.0 137.8 238.3 161.4 91.4 206.4 % Commit at Risk 51.4 21.1 31.3 30.0 19.1 32.1 AFR # Proj 597 644 627 567 621 611 # Proj At Risk 152 133 127 128 138 136 % Proj At Risk 25.5 20.7 20.3 22.6 22.2 22.2 Net Comm Amt 35,438.5 38,884.9 40,416.8 42,653.1 49,146.6 41,308.0 Comm At Risk 9,703.1 8,269.7 6,504.6 14,310.8 16,548.2 11,067.3 % Commit at Risk 27.4 21.3 16.1 33.6 33.7 26.8 World # Proj 1,990 2,059 2,029 1,965 2,049 10,092 # Proj At Risk 410 382 387 414 412 2,005 % Proj At Risk 20.6 18.6 19.1 21.1 20.1 19.9 Net Comm Amt 162,975.3 171,755.3 173,706.1 176,206.6 192,614.1 175,451.5 Comm At Risk 28,963.1 23,850.0 24,465.0 40,805.6 40,933.5 31,803.4 % Commit at Risk 17.8 13.9 14.1 23.2 21.3 18.1 Source: AO Projects at risk by Year as of 6/30/15 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Côte d’Ivoire, FY10-14 FISCAL YEAR 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 OVERALL RESULT Côte D'Ivoire Disbursement Ratio (%) 25.98 23.24 46.75 29.56 38.35 31.41 Inv Disb in FY 84.44 73.58 103.40 89.87 83.85 435.13 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 325.06 316.53 221.19 304.05 218.64 1,385.48 Africa Disbursement Ratio (%) 24.01 19.36 21.39 22.45 23.15 21.98 Inv Disb in FY 4,250.96 4,703.06 5,260.34 5,652.13 6,143.93 26,010.42 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 17,704.08 24,298.45 24,594.97 25,175.93 26,540.38 118,313.81 World Disbursement Ratio (%) 26.91 22.38 20.79 20.60 20.79 22.07 Inv Disb in FY 20,928.83 20,933.36 21,048.24 20,510.39 20,756.98 104,177.80 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 77,760.85 93,516.54 101,234.29 99,588.04 99,852.72 471,952.45 * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. Source: AO as of 6/30/15 Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 26 Annex Table 9: List of IFC Investments in Côte d'Ivoire Investments Committed in FY10-FY15 PROJECT INSTITUTION CMT PROJECT PRIMARY SECTOR GREENFIELD PROJECT ORIGINAL LOAN EQUITY NET NET NET ID NUMBER FY STATUS NAME CODE SIZE ORIGINAL ORIGINAL CMT CANCEL CANCEL LOAN EQUITY COMM LOAN EQUITY 34108 631945 2015 Active Finance & Insurance G 4,216 2,653 - 2,653 - - 2,653 - 2,653 35379 699004 2015 Active Oil, Gas and Mining E 1,159 - 1,159 1,159 - - 1,159 1,159 35804 631945 2015 Active Finance & Insurance G 100 100 - 100 - - 100 - 100 32406 6129 2014 Active Electric Power E 264,930 132,535 - 132,535 - - 132,535 - 132,535 33230 753607 2014 Active Finance & Insurance E 20,822 20,822 - 20,822 - - 20,822 - 20,822 33538 759624 2014 Active Finance & Insurance G 100,000 100,000 - 100,000 - - 100,000 - 100,000 34347 772204 2014 Active Electric Power E 10,000 10,000 - 10,000 - - 10,000 - 10,000 35102 5109 2014 Active Finance & Insurance E 10,000 10,000 - 10,000 - - 10,000 - 10,000 26619 51303 2013 Active Electric Power E 495,680 125,000 - 125,000 65,000 - 60,000 - 60,000 31761 742949 2013 Active Accommodation & G 7,803 7,803 - 7,803 - - 7,803 - 7,803 Tourism Services 32061 725204 2013 Active Transportation and G 7,000 7,000 - 7,000 2,800 - 4,200 - 4,200 Warehousing 33110 51303 2013 Active Electric Power E 5,000 5,000 - 5,000 750 - 4,250 - 4,250 31076 734825 2012 Active Finance & Insurance E 18,136 17,018 - 17,018 - - 17,018 - 17,018 31223 699004 2012 Active Oil, Gas and Mining G 6,816 - 2,483 2,483 - - 2,483 2,483 31422 523642 2012 Active Agriculture and Forestry E 10,666 - 3,200 3,200 - - 3,200 3,200 31509 707425 2012 Active Oil, Gas and Mining G 30,342 - 10,837 10,837 - 346 10,490 10,490 31584 525923 2012 Active Finance & Insurance E 5,000 5,000 - 5,000 - - 5,000 - 5,000 28189 631945 2011 Active Finance & Insurance G 989 - 989 989 - - 989 989 29006 6317 2010 Active Finance & Insurance E 1,000 1,000 - 1,000 - - 1,000 - 1,000 29929 644885 2010 Active Food & Beverages G 10,177 10,177 - 10,177 2,923 - 7,254 - 7,254 Sub-Total 1,009,837 454,108 18,667 472,776 71,473 346 382,636 18,321 400,957 Investments Committed pre-FY10 but active during FY10-15 PROJECT INSTITUTION CMT PROJECT PRIMARY GREENFIELD LOAN EQUITY NET NET NET ID NUMBER FY STATUS SECTOR CODE PROJECT ORIGINAL ORIGINAL ORIGINAL CANCEL CANCEL LOAN EQUITY COMM NAME NAME SIZE LOAN EQUITY CMT 27545 502125 2009 Active Finance & E 7,500 38,444 - 38,444 - - 38,444 - 38,444 Insurance Sub-Total 7,500 38,444 - 38,444 - - 38,444 - 38,444 TOTAL 1,017,337 492,552 18,667 511,220 71,473 346 421,080 18,321 439,401 Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 27 Annex Table 10: List of IFC Advisory Services for Côte d’Ivoire Advisory Services Approved in FY10-15 PROJEC PROJECT NAME IMPL IMPL PROJECT PRIMARY TOTAL T ID START END STATUS BUSINESS FUNDS FY FY LINE US$ 600283 Cargill Advisory Program - Cocoa Cooperatives 2015 2017 ACTIVE SBA 1,238,310 576587 West Cocoa Advisory Services 2014 2015 TERMINATED SBA 599473 Ivory Coast MFS Market Development 2014 2017 ACTIVE A2F 1,155,260 599500 Bank of Africa Côte d’Ivoire 2014 2016 ACTIVE A2F 420,142 599897 Côte d'Ivoire - Agribusiness Program 2014 2017 ACTIVE IC 2,015,000 600398 Côte d'Ivoire - IC Agribusiness project 2014 2017 ACTIVE IC 1,970,000 588607 Côte d'Ivoire Investment Climate Reform 2013 2016 ACTIVE IC 2,307,725 Program - Business Regulation 593167 SIPRA Advisory Services 2013 2016 ACTIVE SBA 832,000 571187 Advans CI TA 2012 2016 ACTIVE A2F 1,090,000 565011 Amsmeta Eti Côte d’Ivoire 2010 2012 CLOSED A2F 625,092 Sub-Total 11,653,529 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY11 but active during FY10-15 PROJECT PROJECT NAME START END PROJECT PRIMARY TOTAL FUNDS ID FY FY STATUS BUSINESS US$ LINE None Sub-Total - TOTAL 11,653,529 A2F: Access to Finance; IC: Investment Climate; PPP: Public-Private Partnerships Source: IFC AS Data as of end of FY14 For Closed/Terminated projects, Total Fund is actual expenditure during implementation. Annex Table 11: List of MIGA Activities in Côte d’Ivoire ID CONTRACT ENTERPRISE FY PROJECT SECTOR INVESTOR MAX GROSS STATUS ISSUANCE 11093 Block CI 27 Expansion Program 2014 Active Oil and Gas France; United 597.1 Kingdom 8296 Azito Thermal Power Plant and 2013 Active Power Bermuda/Channel 116.1 Expansion Is. 11656 Azala Abidjan Hotel 2013 Active Tourism Mali 7.4 4138 Henri Konan Bédié Bridge 2012 Active Transportation France; Netherlands; 158.3 Nigeria; South Africa; United Kingdom TOTAL 878.9 Source: MIGA 7/2/15 Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 28 Annex Table 12: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Côte d’Ivoire DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS 2010 2011 2012 2013 Australia 0.03 0.79 0.49 0.56 Austria 4.47 1.8 98.92 0.07 Belgium 3.26 2.51 273.47 1.88 Canada 6.93 10.18 139.24 3.55 Czech Republic 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.01 Denmark 0.01 5.92 0.09 -0.09 Finland 0.46 1.45 0.37 0.66 France 138.52 553.21 1279.02 81.05 Germany 92.55 19.46 14.39 104.84 Greece 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 Iceland 0.09 0.1 .. .. Ireland 0.41 0.79 0.05 .. Italy 2.24 1.22 2.63 0.62 Japan 81.26 8.17 30.88 35.69 Korea 1.23 1.03 1.04 1.89 Luxembourg 0.51 0.32 0.07 0.08 Netherlands 5.46 8.92 .. .. New Zealand .. 1.13 .. .. Norway 1.72 7.43 7.61 0.99 Portugal .. 0.09 0.06 0.05 Spain -7.59 0.22 17.21 230.86 Sweden 1.24 5.3 3.01 2.04 Switzerland 2.57 7.02 18.84 2.17 United Kingdom 25.96 10.74 74.98 -0.64 United States 76.27 74.31 139.61 252.59 DAC Countries, Total 437.67 722.16 2102.01 718.88 AfDB (African Dev. Bank) .. .. .. 0.1 AfDF (African Dev. Fund) 9.26 148.91 0.62 16.97 BADEA 2.22 -0.43 6.49 1.45 EU Institutions 66.93 99.08 169.5 138.06 GAVI 2.39 7.11 6.86 3.43 GEF 1.82 0.17 0.44 0.33 Global Fund 63.6 21.55 25.06 64.81 IAEA 0.32 0.07 0.06 0.33 IBRD .. .. .. .. IDA 184.74 163.91 84.52 125.96 IFAD 2.29 1.3 1.89 7.24 IFC .. .. .. .. IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) 44.41 238.23 198 148.29 Isl. Dev Bank -0.26 -1.42 10.43 10.69 OFID 1.38 -0.78 -1.32 3.07 UNAIDS 0.72 0.95 0.85 0.81 UNDP 7.15 3.74 2.38 2.35 UNFPA 5.11 5.25 5.04 5.57 UNHCR 0.52 .. .. .. UNICEF 9.57 13.53 7.23 8.28 UNPBF 0.65 0.03 3.31 4.46 WFP 2.93 8.77 2.21 0.95 WHO .. 1.15 1.6 1.81 Multilateral, Total 405.75 711.12 525.17 544.96 Estonia .. 0.08 .. 0.01 Israel 0.19 0.06 0.12 0.14 Kuwait (KFAED) 0.46 0.64 7.52 1.98 Romania 0.01 0.1 0.11 0.04 Russia .. 1.51 0.21 .. Thailand 0.01 .. .. 0.01 Turkey 0.11 0.31 0.46 0.84 United Arab Emirates 0.76 0.02 0.02 0.01 Non-DAC Countries, Total 1.54 2.72 8.44 3.03 Development Partners Total 844.96 1,436.00 2,635.62 1,266.87 Source: OECD Stat, [DAC2a] as of 7/2/15 Annexes CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 29 Annex Table 13: Economic and Social Indicators for Côte d’Ivoire, 2010 - 2014 SERIES NAME CÔTE D'IVOIRE SSA WORLD 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average 2010-2014 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 2.0 -4.4 10.7 9.2 9.0 5.3 4.4 2.8 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 0.0 -6.4 8.2 6.7 6.4 3.0 1.7 1.6 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 2,730.0 2,600.0 2,890.0 3,080.0 3,350.0 2,930.0 3,239.5 13,944.3 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 1,290.0 1,220.0 1,340.0 1,450.0 1,550.0 1,370.0 1,545.4 10,260.8 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 1.7 4.9 1.3 2.6 0.5 5.3 3.5 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 24.5 26.7 22.5 22.1 22.4 23.6 14.5 3.1 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 22.4 24.2 22.3 22.3 21.1 22.5 28.3 26.8 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 53.1 49.1 55.1 55.7 56.5 53.9 57.2 70.2 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 12.3 9.0 12.1 14.6 16.1 12.8 20.7 21.7 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) 20.7 21.2 19.3 21.7 21.0 20.8 19.0 22.3 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 50.6 53.8 48.5 43.8 43.4 48.0 30.6 29.4 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 43.3 37.3 44.3 41.2 39.4 41.1 32.6 29.3 Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.9 .. .. .. .. 1.9 .. .. External debt stocks (% of GNI) 48.6 53.5 38.7 37.9 .. 44.7 .. .. Total debt service (% of GNI) 3.1 2.9 2.9 4.2 .. 3.3 1.5 Total reserves in months of imports 3.7 .. .. .. .. 3.7 5.0 13.6 Fiscal Accounts /1 General government revenue (% of GDP) 18.1 19.2 18.9 19.8 20.8 19.4 .. .. General government total expenditure (% of 20.0 24.6 22.1 22.1 23.1 22.4 .. .. GDP) General government net lending/borrowing -1.8 -5.4 -3.1 -2.3 -2.3 -3.0 .. .. (% of GDP) General government gross debt (% of GDP) 63.0 93.3 44.8 39.9 36.4 55.5 .. .. Social Indicators Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 49.7 50.0 50.4 50.8 .. 50.2 56.2 70.6 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12- 85.0 62.0 82.0 88.0 .. 79.3 70.9 83.4 23 months) Improved sanitation facilities (% of 21.1 21.5 21.9 .. .. 21.5 29.3 63.3 population with access) Improved water source (% of population with 67.7 67.8 67.8 .. .. 67.8 51.3 80.9 access) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 76.9 75.2 73.2 71.3 .. 74.2 64.0 35.2 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) .. 4.5 5.4 6.5 .. 5.4 18.6 51.9 School enrollment, primary (% gross) .. 90.0 94.2 96.4 .. 93.5 99.1 108.2 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) .. .. .. 39.1 .. 39.1 41.8 73.2 Population Population, total (Millions) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.8 19.9 912.9 7,044.9 Population growth (annual %) 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.7 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 50.6 51.3 52.0 52.8 53.5 52.0 36.2 52.5 Source: DDP as of 4/14/15 *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015