Report No. 16625-AM Republic of Armenia Transport Sector Review (In Three Volumes) Volume Ill: Statistical Appendix May 30, 1997 Infrastructure Operations Division Country Department IV Europe and Central Asia Region Documnt of the World Bank CURRENCY UNITS and EQUIVALENTS Dr Dram - Introduced Nov. 22, 1993 US$1 = 14 Dr (November, 1993) US$1 = 425 Dr (October, 1996) Rbl Ruble US$1 = 2,600 Rbl (October 1993) US$ US Dollar USc US cent WEIGHTS, MEASURES and OTHER UNITS bln billion inh inhabitant kg kilogram km kilometer mln million pass passenger sq km, km2 square kilometer t ton (metric, 1,000 kg) th thousand toe ton oil equivalent vpd vehicles per day CONVERSION FACTORS 1 mile = 1.609 meters I kg = 2.205 lbs 1 US gallon = 3.785 liters 1 sq km = 0.386 square miles CHEMICAL COMPOUNDS CxH, HC Hydrocarbons CO Carbon Monoxide CO2 Carbon Dioxide NOx Nitrogen Oxides S02 Sulfur Dioxide FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Vice President: Johannes Linn, ECAVP Director: Basil G. Kavaksly, EC4DR Division Chief: Dominique Lallement, EC4IN Task Manager: Pedro N. Taborga, EC4IN Table 2.1 REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Million US$ 1994 1995 1996* CURRENT ACCOUNT (excluding official transfers) (231.3) (483.0) (270.8) Trade Balance (191.9) (402.0) (256.3) Exports 209.3 270.9 104.6 Imports (401.2) (672.9) (360.9) of which gas (69.4) (129.2) (36.4) Services (75.4) (99.4) (28.5) Non-Factor Services (net) (68.7) (89.9) (24.5) Credit 47.8 33.5 15.5 of which Transport and Freight Credit 39.3 21.5 8.1 Debit (116.5) (123.4) (40.0) of which Transport and Freight Debit (71.7) (92.2) (34.6) Interest (net) (6.7) (9.5) (4.0) Private Transfers 36.0 18.4 14.0 CAPITAL FLOWS (1.0) 6.1 (20.5) Amortization (0.6) (50.1) (36.0) Foreign Direct Investment 2.6 19.1 15.5 Short-Term Flows (7.1) 0.7 -- Trade Credits 4.1 36.4 -- OVERALL BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (232.3) (476.9) (291.3) Sources: IMF, Armenian Authorities, Multilateral and Bilateral Donors * Actual, January-June 1996 Table 4.1 Armenian Traffic at Customs Points FLOW OF TRAFFIC FOR 1995 Cars Buses Trucks Total Vehicles Bavra (border with Georgia) September 771 80 320 1,171 October 900 118 344 1,362 November 813 83 422 1,318 December 569 53 176 798 Tashir (border with Georgia) September 692 43 353 1,088 October 1,593 65 531 2,189 November 1,940 58 429 2,427 December 1,837 47 649 2,533 Bagratashen (border with Georgia) September 2,467 118 648 3,233 October 1,842 79 351 2,272 November 2,210 102 476 2,788 December 2,543 125 760 3,428 Meghri (border with Iran) November 5241 13 295 832 December 621 15 400 1,036 Source: Ministry of Transport FLOW OF TRAFFIC FOR 1996 Cars Buses Trucks Total Vehicles Bavra (border with Georgia) January 472 47 177 696 February 445 53 211 709 March 617 51 223 891 April 1,709 180 732 2,621 May 1,118 191 654 1,963 June 1,034 128 391 1,553 Tashir (border with Georgia) January 1,815 88 633 2,536 February 1,762 55 654 2,471 March 1,645 59 638 2,342 April 2,721 161 1,552 4,434 May 2,945 2661 2,183 5,394 Bagratashen (border with Georgia) January 1,597 48 274 1,919 February 2,446 119 665 3,230 March 1,907 72 480 2,459 April 1,880 83 444 2,407 May 1,782 75 364 2,221 Meghri (border with Iran) January 306 4 185 495 February 323 6 158 487 March 335 4 227 566 April 407 11 369 787 May 518 18 542 1,078 June 781 16 452 1,249 Source: Ministry of Transport Table 5.1 Traffic Flows on Selected Roads (vehicles/day) Road 1994 1995 1996 Yerevan-Ashtarak 4,512 1,017 9,561 Ashtarak-Talin 1,794 2,688 2,610 Talin-Ghunri 1,794 2,650 2,891 Ghumri-Ashotsk 1,371 1,293 1,392 Ashotsk-Bavra 584 1,521 1,405 Yerevan-Astashat 7,397 7,840 6,951 Arstashat-Ararat 2,901 6,727 6,034 Ararat-Yegkegnadzor 1,294 2,171 1,786 Yegkegnadzor-Goris 1,314 1,670 1,735 Goris-Kapan 869 963 1,229 Kapan-Meghri 871 670 583 Ashtarak-Spitak -- 2,286 3,021 Spitak-Vanadzor -- 2,784 3,972 Vanadzor-Stepanavan -- 1,560 1,655 Tashir-Georgian Border -- 2,058 3,435 Alaverdi-Bagratashen 3,451 2,929 2,447 Source: Ministry of Transport Estimates Table 5.2 Road Accidents on Armenian Public Roads Year No. of Reported Injuries Fatalities Accidents 1989 382 426 230 1990 666 760 328 1991 530 647 256 1992 359 453 224 1993 222 262 113 1994 169 200 85 1995 277 348 120 Source: Ministry of Transport Table 5.3 a Vehicle Fleet in Armenia and Yerevan, 1994 Type of Vehicle Armenia in bad repair Yerevan in bad repair Cars 238,560 30% 118,260 20% Small Trucks/Lorries 28,165 35% 12,215 35% Trailers and Semi-Trailers 1,440 35% n.a. n.a. Buses (diesel/gas) 3,980 45% 2,885 35% Total Road Transport (excl. trolley) 272,145 30% 133,360 25% Trolley buses 290 n.a. 270 n.a. Tramways 125 n.a. 125 n.a. Metro 70 n.a. 70 n.a. Source: State Administration for Statistics and Energy Research Institute-TAC/S Table 5.3 b Estimated Vehicle Operating Costs (US$ per 1,000 vehicle.km) Road Category 1 2 3 4 5 6 IRI (Roughness Index) 3 4.3 5 6.5 10 15 Vehicle Type Cars 78 81 83 87 98 119 Light Trucks/Pick-ups 73 75 77 80 90 107 Buses 267 275 279 288 313 355 2-Axle Trucks 116 124 128 138 164 210 3-Axle Trucks 201 215 223 241 289 376 Articulated Trucks 369 392 404 432 506 633 Source: EU-Tacis - Am6nagement de l'axe routier Erevan-Batoumi, Rapport Final, July 1996 Note on Road Category Descriptions: 1= good condition; 2=relatively good condition; 3=fair condition; 4=relatively poor condition; 5=poor condition; 6=very poor condition Table 5.3 c Estimated Unit Costs of Vehicles (All Prices and Costs in US$) Input Car Pick-up Bus 2-Axle 3-Axle Articulated Truck Truck Truck Price of Vehicle 7,000 4,500 77,000 8,000 20,000 40,000 Number & Price of 4x 40 4x 40 6x 150 6x 150 10x 150 22x 150 Tires Price of Liter of 0.33 0.33 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Petrol/Diesel Mechanic Labour 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 (cost per hour) Cost of Spare Parts 7,000 4,500 77,000 8,000 20,000 40,000 per Vehicle Price of Liter of 1 1 1 1 1 1 Lubricating Oil Source: EU-Tacis - Am6nagement de l'axe routier Erevan-Batoumi, Rapport Final, July 1996 Table 5.4 Armenia Transport Sector Review - Road Infrastructure Needs World Bank Preliminary Estimates, October 1996 Key Assumptions for Cashflow Projections -- Based on Armenian Road Directorate Estimates for Maintenance and Rehabilitation Needs 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Unit Cost ($1km Fuel imports Petrol (t) 145,666 148,579 151,550 154,582 157,673 160,827 164,043 167,324 Diesel Fuel it) 71,717 73,151 74,614 76,106 77,629 79,181 80,765 82,380 Liquid Gas (t) 1,698 1,732 1,767 1,802 1,838 1,875 1,912 1,951 Natural Gas (OOOm3) 1,447.000 1,475,940 1,505,459 1,535,568 1,566,279 1,597,605 1,629,557 1,662,148 Pressurized Gas (OOOm3) 5,899 6,017 6,138 6,260 6,385 6,513 6,643 6,776 Fuel Unit Prices Petrol ($/t) 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 Diesel Fuel 1/ti 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 Liquid Gas i$/ti 342 342 342 342 342 342 342 342 Natural Gas i$'OOOm3) 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 Pressurized Gas ($/'000m3) 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 Fuel Tax (%) Petrol 0% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% Diesel Fuel 0% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% Liquid Gas 0% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% Natural Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pressurized Gas 0% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% Road Maintenance and Rehabiliation Needs - interstate Roads Surface Dressing (km) 145 118 118 118 118 118 11,850 Asphalt Concrete Overlay (km) 114 73 73 73 73 73 10 10 38,290 2-Layer Asphalt Concrete (km) 33 33 33 33 33 105,100 Reconstruction (km) 3 23 23 23 23 23 180,000 Routine Repair and Maintenance (kml 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,300 Winter Maintenance (km) 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 670 Bridge Routine Maintenance & Repair (mln $) 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.30 Traffic Safety (min $) 3.61 3.61 3.61 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 Road Maintenance and Rehabiliation Needs - Republic Roads Surface Dressing (km) 169 169 169 169 169 115 115 10,500 Asphalt Concrete Overlay (km) 128 128 128 128 128 128 128 33,600 2-Layer Asphalt Concrete (km) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 80,000 Reconstruction (km) 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 150,000 Routine Repair and Maintenance (km) 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 1,100 Winter Maintenance (km) 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 450 Bridge Routine Maintenance & Repair (min $) 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.30 Traffic Safety (min $) 1.75 1.75 1.75 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 Road Maintenance and Rehabiliation Needs - Secondary Roads Surface Dressing (km) 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 8,500 Asphalt Concrete Overlay (km) 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 30,000 2-Layer Asphalt Concrete (km) 43 43 43 43 43 43 60,000 Reconstruction (km) 31 31 31 31 31 31 130,000 Routine Repair and Maintenance (km) 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 1,000 Winter Maintenance (km) 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 350 Bridge Routine Maintenance & Repair (min $) 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 Traffic Safety (min $) 0.77 0.77 0.77 1.09 1.09 1.10 1,11 Bridges, Tunnels, Yerevan-Batumi Road, Spares and Equipment Landslide (min $) 10.50 10.50 5.50 5.50 6.00 Sevan Tunnel (min 4) 2.00 4.00 2.00 Pushkin Tunnel (min $) 2.15 2.00 Spitak Tunnel (min $) 2.00 2.00 3 Other Small Tunnels (min $) 1.00 1.00 1.00 Bridges (min $) 0.25 0.95 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 Meghri Yerevan-Batumi (min $i 10.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15,00 Spares and Equip. for "Armavtodor* - Road Works (min$) 1.00 1.00 Road Directorate Staff 3,245 2,035 825 750 700 700 700 700 Average Wage i$/month) 30 50 60 72 86 104 124 149 Table 5.5 Armenia Transport Sector Review - Road Infrastructure Needs World Bank Preliminary Estimates, October 1996 Cashflow Projections, 1996 US$ 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Sources of Funds Budget Allocation 4,950,000 Divestiture from Assets 2,000,000 2,000,000 Fuel Tax Revenues 0 6,161,954 6,285,193 6,410,897 6,539,115 6,669,897 6,803,295 6,939,361 Total. Internal Sources 4,950.000 8,161.954 8.285.193 6.410.897 6.539,115 6,669,897 6.803.295 6.939,361 Highway Project Loan (WB) 10,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 Additional Loan Borrowing (EBRD) 7,000,000 6,500,000 1,500,000 Total. Sources 15.450,000 18.161.954 17,285,193 7,910,897 6.539.115 6.669,897 6.803,295 6.939.361 Application of Funds Road Directorate Operational Expenses Salaries and Wages 1,168,200 1,221,000 594,000 648,000 725,760 870,912 1,045,094 1,254,113 Severances 0 0 0 64,800 51,840 0 0 0 Other Expenses 1,000,000 1,000,000 850,000 750,000 750,000 750,000 750,000 750,000 Total. Road Directorate Operational Expenses 2.168.200 2.221,000 1,444,000 1.462.800 1,527.600 1.620.912 1.795.094 2.004.113 Road Maintenance and Rehabilitation Plan Interstate Roads 13,188,310 18,716,770 18,716,770 17,491,770 17,456,770 17,156,770 5,737,900 5,737,900 Republic Roads 0 19,000,300 19,000,300 18,995,300 18,050,300 17,750,300 17,183,300 17,183,300 Secondary Roads 0 9,377,500 15,987,500 15,987,500 16,307,500 16,307,500 16,017,500 16,027,500 Bridges, Tunnels, Yerevan-Batumi Road 0 0 15,395,000 33,450,000 30,000,000 24,000,000 24,000,000 7,500,000 Total. Road Maintenance and Rehabilitation 13.188.310 47.094.570 69.099.570 85.924.570 81.814.570 75,214.570 62.938,700 46.448.700 Spares and Equip. for "Armavtodor" - Road Works 0 1,000,000 1,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 Debt Service Interest 73,500 514,500 922,000 1,012,000 1,012,000 1,012,000 1,012,000 1,012,000 Principal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total. Debt Service 3.00 5L4,.Q 922,000 1.012,000 1.012.000 1,012.000 1.012.000 1.012,000 Total Applications 15.430,010 50.830.070 72.465.570 88.399.370 84.354170 77,847,482 65,745.794 49.464.813 Surplus Funds 19,990 (32,668,116) (55,180,377) (80,488,473) (77,815,055) (71,177,585) (58,942,499) (42,525,452) Opening Cash Balance 0 19,990 (32,648,126) (87,828,503) (168,316,975) (246,132,030) (317,309,615) (376,252,114) Closing Cash Balance 19,990 (32,648,126) (87,828,503) (168,316,975) (246,132,030) (317,309,615) (376,252,114) (418,777,566) Table 5.6 ROAD TRANSPORT BASIC DATA, 1991-1995 FREIGHT TRANSPORT Source: Ministry of Transport and Communications 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 FREIGHT TRANSPORT ACTIVITY Total Traffic (th. ton) 68,854 13,780 2,692 2,611 2,499 Freight Companies 36,805 7,967 1,865 1,681 1,245 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 32,049 5,813 827 930 1,254 Total Freight Turnover (th. ton.km) 1.139.838 264,262 67,563 73,115 59,940 Freight Companies 611,349 141,635 43,041 44,110 33,269 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 528,489 122,627 24,522 29,005 26,671 Averaae Trip (km) 17 19 25 28 24 Freight Companies 17 18 23 26 27 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 16 21 30 31 21 Total Number of Trucks 9,955 8,561 7,782 6,805 5,624 Freight Companies 5,766 4,836 4,249 3,871 3,217 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 4,189 3,725 3,533 2,934 2,407 FREIGHT TRANSPORT INCOME Total Income Ith. RbI before 1993. th. Dram after 791 3,117 20,912 698,106 1,021,167 Freight Companies 428 1,696 12,489 420,688 609,391 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 363 1,421 8,423 277,418 411,776 Total Income (th.US$ equivalent) 791 289 279 2,429 2,514 Freight Companies 428 157 167 1,464 1,500 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 363 132 112 965 1,014 Averaae Revenue (USc/ton,km) 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.3 4,2 Freight Companies 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.3 4.5 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 0.1 0.1 0.5 3.3 3.8 Average Exchange Rate (Rb/ per US$) 1.0 10.8 -- - Average Exchange Rate (Dram per US$) - - 75.0 287.4 406.2 Notes: Does not include private sector traffic & activity, which is not recorded Table 5.7 ROAD TRANSPORT BASIC DATA, 1991-1995 BUS TRANSPORT (excluding Yerevan Urban Transport) Source: Ministry of Transport and Communications 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 BUS TRANSPORT ACTIVITY Total Traffic (th. pass.) 183,294 85830 24,078 29,846 3S,272 Bus Companies 91,179 53,512 18,761 24,739 30,436 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 92,115 32,318 5,317 5,107 7,836 Total Pass. Turnover (th. oass.kml 2,359,039 1,114,850 378,116 442,351 606.074 Bus Companies 1,269,197 727,078 284,836 328,371 429,703 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 1,089,842 387,772 93,280 113,980 176,371 Averaae Trip (km) 13 13 16 15 16 Bus Companies 14 14 15 13 14 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 12 12 18 22 23 Total Number of Buses 2,854 2,889 2,789 2.664 2,470 Bus Companies 1,289 1,352 1,272 1,201 1,102 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 1,565 1,537 1,517 1,463 1,368 BUS TRANSPORT INCOME Total Income (th. RbI before 1993. th. Dram afte 286 1,470 16,865 753,166 2.024,063 Bus Companies 191 1,015 13,885 622,455 1,531,121 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 95 455 2,980 130,711 492,942 Total Income (th.US$ equivalent) 2 136 225 2,621 4,983 Bus Companies 191 94 185 2,166 3,769 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 95 42 40 455 1,214 Averaae Revenue (USc/Dass.km) 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.59 0.82 Bus Companies 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.66 0.88 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.40 0.69 Average Exchange Rate (Rbl per US$) 1.0 10.8 -- - Average Exchange Rate (Dram per US$) - - 75.0 287.4 406.2 Does not include Yerevan Urban Transport Does not include private sector traffic & activity, which is not recorded Table 5.8 ROAD TRANSPORT BASIC DATA, 1991-1995 TAXI TRANSPORT (excluding Yerevan Urban Transport) Source: Ministry of Transport and Communications 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 TAXI TRANSPORT ACTIVITY Total Distance of Trios (th. km) 142,921 30,010 10,546 10,390 3,400 Taxi Companies 108,919 25,323 10,227 9,880 3,238 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 34,002 4,687 319 510 162 Total Number of Taxis 3,075 2,105 1,619 1,426 1,379 Taxi Companies 2,223 1,680 1,388 1,285 1,278 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 852 425 231 141 101 Average Yearly Utilization (km/vehicle) 46,478 14,257 6.514 7,286 2,466 Taxi Companies 48,996 15,073 7,368 7,689 2,534 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 39,908 11,028 1,381 3,617 1,604 TAXI TRANSPORT INCOME Total Income (th. Rbl before 1993. th. Dram aftel 225 365 1,278 48,964 307,918 Taxi Companies 173 324 1,178 47,626 303,318 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 52 41 100 1,338 4,600 Total Income (th.US$ equivalent) 25 34 17 170 758 Taxi Companies 173 30 16 166 747 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 52 4 1 5 11 Averaae Revenue (USc/km) 0,2 0.1 0.2 1.6 22.3 Taxi Companies 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.7 23.1 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.9 7.0 Average Exchange Rate (Rb/ per US$) 1.0 10.8 - - - Average Exchange Rate (Dram per US$) - - 75.0 287.4 406.2 Does not include Yerevan Urban Transport Does not include private sector traffic & activity, which is not recorded Table 5.9 ROAD TRANSPORT BASIC DATA, 1991-1995 AGGREGATED INCOME & EXPENDITURE (excluding Yerevan Urban Transport) Source: Ministry of Transport and Communications 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 INCOME & EXPENDITURE Total Freight Income (th. RbI before 1993. th. Dram after 791 3,117 209.12 698,106 1,021,167 Freight Companies 428 1,696 12,489 420,688 609,391 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 363 1,421 8,423 277,418 411,776 Total Bus Income Ith. Rb) before 1993. th. Dram after) 286 1,470 16.865 753,166 2,024.063 Bus Companies 191 1,015 13,885 622,455 1,531,121 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 95 455 2,980 130,711 492,942 Total Taxi Income (th. RbI before 1993. th. Dram after) 225 365 1,278 4894 307,918 Taxi Companies 173 324 1,178 47,626 303,318 Mixed Bus, Taxi & Freight Companies 52 41 100 1,338 4,600 Total Income (th. RbI before 1993, th. Dram after) 1,302 4,952 39,055 1,500,236 3,353,148 Total Expenditure (th. RbI before 1993, th. Dram after) 1,197 4,664 33,576 1,333,469 2,968,724 Total Profit (th. Rbt before 1993, th. Dram after) 105 288 5,479 166,767 384,424 ROAD TRANSPORT INCOME & EXPENDITURE (th.US$ Equivalent) Total Income 1,302 459 521 5,220 8,255 Total Expenditure 1,197 432 448 4,640 7,309 Total Profit 105 27 73 580 946 Average Exchange Rate (Rb/ per US$) 1.0 10.8 - Average Exchange Rate (Dram per US$) - 75.0 287.4 406.2 Does not include Yerevan Urban Transport Does not include private sector traffic & activity, which is not recorded Table 5.10 MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT -- YEREVAN URBAN TRANSPORT BUS TRANSPORT (diesel & gas) ANALYSIS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL ACTIVITY 1995 US$ equivalent 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 I ACTIVITY and REVENUES Average Tariff(UScents per passenger.km) 3.40 1.44 0.07 0.49 0.63 Transported Passengers (min) 130.2 88.7 46.3 34.1 42.5 Passenger Turnover (mln passenger.km) 744.0 449.3 234.1 182.5 215.7 Average Trip (km) 5.7 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.1 Fleet, of which: 1,200 993 949 892 813 New buses Utilization Coefficient (% of operating buses to total fleet) 51.0% 38.7% 17.8% 18.6% 22.6% Revenues -- excluding budget allocations (mln US$) 25.30 6.51 0.17 0.90 1.36 II EXPENSES Wages and Salaries 14.20 3.98 0.08 0.08 0.22 Social Allocation 5.20 1.18 0.03 0.03 0.08 Fuel 12.50 9.73 0.27 0.58 0.78 Lubricants 0.80 0.39 0.01 0.02 0.03 Repair and Maintenance (includes Tires) 4.40 3.67 0.13 0.19 0.28 Depreciation 0.10 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 Other (misc, taxes...) 1.20 0.47 0.02 0.04 0.06 Expenses (US$ min) 38.40 19.44 0.52 0.95 1.47 Profit/Loss (US$ miln) * -1 3.10 -12.94 -0.35 -0.05 -0.10 Source: Ministry of Transport and Mission Estimates * Losses were at least partially covered by State subsidies until 1994 Average Exchange Rate (Rbl per USS) 1 10.8 2,600 - - Average Exchange Rate (Dram per USS) - - 75 287.4 406.2 Table 5.11 MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT -- YEREVAN URBAN TRANSPORT ELECTRIC TRAMWAYS and TROLLEYBUSES ANALYSIS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL ACTIVITY 1995 USS equivalent 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 I ACTIVITY and REVENUES Average Tariff (UScents per passenger.km) 2.30 1.67 0.07 0.17 0.48 Transported Passengers (mln) 39.0 33.7 28.1 33.2 30.4 Passenger Turnover (mln passenger.km) 175.5 151.7 126.4 149.7 136.5 Average Trip (km) 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Fleet, of which: 516 469 454 397 362 New Units -- 7 -- -- -- Utilization Coefficient (% of operating units to total fleet) 53.0% 52.0% 44.2% 40.9% 36.9% Revenues -- excluding budget allocations (mln US$) 4.50 2.46 0.09 0.25 0.65 II EXPENSES Wages and Salaries 7.20 2.63 0.09 0.11 0.29 Social Allocation 0.40 0.35 0.03 0.04 0.11 Power 7.50 8.08 0.13 0.58 0.67 Lubricants 0.10 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.01 Repair and Maintenance (includes Tires) 3.40 4.33 0.12 0.40 0.56 Depreciation 0.10 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.19 Other (misc, taxes...) 4.00 0.69 0.03 0.07 0.08 Expenses (US$ mln) 22.70 16.16 0.39 1.20 1.91 Profit/Loss (US$ mln) * -18.201 -13.69 -0.301 -0.95 -1.25 Source: Ministry of Transport and Mission Estimates * Losses were at least partially covered by State subsidies until early 1995 Average Exchange Rate (Rbl per US$) 1 10.8 2,600 Average Exchange Rate (Dram per US$) - -75 287.4 406.2 Table 5.12 MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT - YEREVAN URBAN TRANSPORT METRO OF YEREVAN ANALYSIS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL ACTIVITY 1995 USS equivalent 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996* I ACTIVITY and REVENUES Average Tariff (UScents per trip) 12.50 7.56 0.39 1.08 4.01 7.14 Transported Passengers (mln) 49.2 52.2 73.9 71.4 55.4 40.0 Passenger Turnover (min passenger.km) 187.0 198.6 280.8 271.3 210.4 152.0 Average Trip (kn) 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Fleet, of which: 61 58 62 70 70 70 New Units Utilization Coefficient (% of operating units to total fleet) 79.6% 77.8% 79.0% 74.9% 65.2% 76.5% Revenues - excluding budget allocations (min US$) 6.11 3.94 0.22 0.58 1.70 2.36 II EXPENSES Wages and Salaries 4.60 1.98 0.10 0.12 0.39 0.57 Social Allocation 1.80 0.63 0.04 0.05 0.15 0.21 Materials 0.22 0.10 0.02 0.08 0.14 0.18 Power 1.42 2.69 0.16 0.76 0.84 1.05 Repair and Maintenance (includes Tires) 2.63 1.65 0.05 0.21 0.80 1.31 Depreciation 2.20 0.20 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.18 Other (misc, taxes...) 2.34 1.03 0.09 0.13 0.19 0.19 Expenses (US$ min) 15.20 8.28 0.45 1.36 2.58 3.69 Profit/Loss before Budget Allocation (US$ min) -9.10 -4.34 -0.23 -0.78 -0.87 -1.33 Budget Allocation (USS min) 7.00 5.60 0.27 0.65 0.78 0.95 Total Profit/Loss (US$ min) -2.10 1.26 0.05 -0.13 -0.09 -0.38 Source: Ministry of Transport and Mission Estimates Note: * Estimates for 1996, based on 6 months of actual information Average Exchange Rate (Rblper US$) 1 1 10.8 2,600 - Average Exchange Rate (Dram per US$) - - 75 287.4 406.2 420.0 Table 5.13 METRO of Yerevan - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, October 1996 Key Assumptions and Income Statement Projections (1995 US$) Actual Projected --- -- ------------ 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 KEY ASSUMPTIONS Traffic Passenger (pass) 55,400,000 40,000,000 39,000,000 39,390,000 39,783,900 40,181,739 40,583,556 40,989,392 41,399,286 Passenger.km (min pass.km) 210.4 151.9 148.1 149.6 151.1 152.6 154.1 155.7 157.2 Average trip (km) 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Tariff per trip (USc) 4.01 7.14 16.00 23.00 25.00 25.00 26.00 27.00 28.00 Average passenger tariff (USc / pass.km) 0.81 1.60 3.79 6.06 6.58 6.58 6.85 7.11 7.37 Privileged and non-paying passengers I Total passengers 1%) 20% 20% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Total Metro of Yerevan Staff 1,440 1,440 1,320 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 Average Salary 1$/month) 22.8 34.2 50.0 60.0 72.0 86.4 103.7 124.4 149.3 OPERATING REVENUES (1995 US$1 Passenger Income 1,701,132 2,437,223 5,616,000 9,059,700 9,945,975 10,045,435 10,551,725 11,067,136 11,591,800 Budget Allocation 784,097 492,368 246,184 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Operating Revenue 2,485,229 2,929,591 5,862,184 9,059,700 9,945,975 10,045,435 10,551,725 11,067,136 11,591,800 OPERATING EXPENSES (1995 US$) Salary and Wages 394,350 590,842 792,000 864,000 1,036,800 1,244,160 1,492,992 1,791,590 2,149,908 Social Benefits 152,991 221,566 297,000 324,000 388,800 466,560 559,872 671,846 806,216 Operation and Maintenance 935,323 1,538,651 1,615,583 1,696,363 1,781,181 1,870,240 1,963,752 2,061,939 2,165,036 Power 835,591 1,083,210 1,584,195 1,600,037 1,616,037 1,632,198 1,648,520 1,665,005 1,681,655 Severance 0 0 144,000 172,800 0 0 0 0 0 Other Expenses (Incl. taxes) 191,706 196,947 206,795 217,134 227,991 239,391 251,360 263,928 277,125 Total Operating Expenses 2,509,961 3,631,216 4,639,573 4,874,334 5,050,809 5,452,548 5,916,496 6,454,309 7,079,940 Operating Profit Before Depreciation, Interest and Taxes -24,732 -701,625 1,222,611 4,185,366 4,895,166 4,592,887 4,635,229 4,612,827 4,511,860 Depreciation 65,532 3,361,138 3,361,138 3,367,138 3,628,138 3,721,138 3,814,138 3,910,138 4,006,138 Operating Profit Before Interest and Taxes -90,263 -4,062,763 -2,138,527 818,228 1,267,028 871,749 821,091 702,689 505,722 Interest on Borrowings and Other 0 90,000 0 0 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Operating Profit Before Taxes -90,263 -4,152,763 -2,138,527 818,228 767,028 471,749 521,091 502,689 405,722 Profit Tax (30%) 0 0 0 245,468 230,108 141,525 156,327 150,807 121,717 Net Profit after Tax -90,263 -4,152,763 -2,138,527 572,760 536,919 330.224 364,764 351,882 284,005 Notes- Average 1995 Exchange Rate (US$/Dram): 406.2 (Source: IMF) Table 5.14 METRO of Yerevan - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, October 1996 Sources and Applications of Funds (1995 US$) ------- --------------------------------Projected ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 SOURCES Internal Sources Net Operating Profit Before Interest and Taxes -4,062,763 -2,138,527 818,228 1,267,028 871,749 821,091 702,689 505,722 Depreciation 3,361,138 3,361,138 3,367,138 3,628,138 3,721,138 3,814,138 3,910,138 4,006,138 Total. Internal Sources -701,625 1.222.611 4.185,366 4.895,166 4.592.887 4.635.229 4.612.827 4.511.860 Long Term Loan 0 0 5,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 Total Sources -701,625 1,222,611 9,185,366 4,895,166 4,592,887 4,635,229 4,612,827 4,511,860 APPLICATIONS Capital Investments Projects Financed by Internal Sources 0 200,000 3,700,000 3,100,000 3,100,000 3,200,000 3,200,000 3,300,000 Projects Financed by Long Term Loan 5,000,000 Total. Capital Investments Q 2.00Q.0 8.700,000 3.100,000 3.100,000 3.200.000 3.200.000 3.300,000 Debt Service Interest 90,000 0 0 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Principal 387 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 Total. Debt Service 90Q3Z 0 0 1,500.000 1.400.000 1,300.000 1.200.000 1,100.000 Profit Tax 0 0 245,468 230,108 141,525 156,327 150,807 121,717 Increase (Decrease) in Non-Cash Working Capital -799,696 978,850 113,666 22,222 -29,334 -17,567 -23,342 -30,275 Total Applications -709,310 1,178,850 9,059,135 4,852,330 4,612,190 4,638,760 4,527,464 4,491,442 Surplus Funds 7,685 43,761 126,231 42,836 -19,304 -3,531 85,362 20,418 Opening Cash Balance 27,220 34,905 78,666 204,897 247,733 228,429 224,898 310,260 Closing Cash Balance 34,905 78,666 204,897 247,733 228,429 224,898 310,260 330,678 Table 5.15 METRO of Yerevan - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, October 1996 Balance Sheets at Years Ending December 31 (1995 US$) End of 1996 Asset Revaluation Coefficient: 15 Depreciation Coefficient: 3.0% Actual ----- ----- ----- Projected----------------------- 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ASSETS Fixed Assets Gross Fixed Assets 7,469,195 112,037,932 112,037,932 112,237,932 120,937,932 124,037,932 127,137,932 130,337,932 133,537,932 Less Accumulated Depreciation -736,201 -14,404,155 -17,765,293 -21,132,431 -24,760,569 -28,481,707 -32,295,845 -36,205,983 -40,212,121 Net Fixed Assets 6,732,994 97,633,777 94,272,639 91,105,501 96,177,363 95,556,225 94,842,087 94,131,949 93,325,811 Capital Work in Progress 0 0 200,000 8,700,000 3,100,000 3,100,000 3,200,000 3,200,000 3,300,000 Total. Fixed Assets 6,732.994 97.633 777 94,472,639 99,805.501 99,277,363 98,666,225 98 042.087 97 331 949 96,625.811 Long-Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Current Assets Cash and Bank Notes 27,220 34,905 78,666 204,897 247,733 228,429 224,898 310,260 330,678 Short-Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Accounts Receivable 32,593 81,378 244,258 377,488 414,416 418,560 439,655 461,131 482,992 Inventories 95,616 95,616 95,616 95,616 95,616 95,616 95,616 95,616 95,616 Other Assets 15,836 15,836 15,836 15,836 15,836 15,836 15,836 15,836 15,836 Total. Current Assets 171266 227735 434,376 693.837 773Q601 Z58,441 226,005 882,843 925,122 Total Assets 6,904,260 97,861,512 94,907,015 100,499,338 100,050,964 99,414,666 98,818,092 98,214,792 97,550,933 EQUITY and LIABILITIES Equity Capital 6,519,786 6,519,786 6,519,786 6,519,786 6,519,786 6,519,786 6,519,786 6,519,786 6,519,786 Capital Reserve 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Retained Earnings 0 -4,152,763 -6,291,290 -5,718,530 -5,181,611 -4,851,387 -4,486,623 -4,134,741 -3,850,735 Revaluation Reserve 14,962 94,276,882 94,276,882 94,276,882 94,276,882 94,276,882 94,276,882 94,276,882 94,276,882 Total Equity 6,534747 96,643,905 94,505,378 95.078.138 95,615,058 95,945,282 96,310,045 96.661,927 96,945,933 Long-Term Debt 387 0 0 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Liabilities Accounts Payable 354,121 302,601 386,631 406,194 420,901 454,379 493,041 537,859 589,995 Advances 1,741 1,741 1,741 1,741 1,741 1,741 1,741 1,741 1,741 Short-Term Borrowing 0 900,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Current Liabilities 13,265 13,265 13,265 13,265 13,265 13,265 13,265 13,265 13,265 Total, Liabilities 369.126 1,217,607 401,637 4215QQ AA.96 693 508,047 552,865 605000 Total Equity and Liabilities 6,904,260 97,861,512 94,907,015 100,499,338 100,050,964 99,414,666 98,818,092 98,214,792 97,550,933 Notes: Average 1995 Exchange Rate (US$/Dram): 406.2 (Source: IMF) Table 5.19 METRO of Yerevan - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, October 1996 Ratios of Financial Performance Actual ---------- ---- Projected -------- 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Liquidity Current Assets/Current Liabilities 0.46 0.19 1.08 1.65 1.77 1.62 1.53 1.60 1.53 Quick Assets/Current Liabilities 0.07 0.03 0.20 0.49 0.57 0.49 0.44 0.56 0.55 Operating Performance (Working Expenss+Depeciation)/Revenues 104% 239% 136% 91% 87% 91% 92% 94% 96% Profitability Return on Gross Fixed Assets -1.2% -3.7% -1.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Return on Net Fixed Assets -1.3% -4.3% -2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% Long Term Debt, Financial Leverage Debt Service Coverage na na na na 3.26 3.28 3.57 3.84 4.10 Interest Coverage na na na na 2.53 2.18 2.74 3.51 5.06 Receivables and Payables Receivables/Annual Billings (Days) 5 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Total Payables/Annual Expenditures (Days) 53 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 Table 6.1 Organizational Chart of the Armenian Railways DIRECTOR I GENERAL (4) TECHNICAL DIRECTOR (2) FINANCAL EXPLOITATION SPECIAL SERVICE BU[LDING SERVICE SERVICE (2) SERVICE (2) (2) (2) PERSONNEL PAYMENTS Loco- Ener- Com- Track Wa- Traf- SECRECY CiVIL ENGINEERING Mechanical (3) (3) (2) moti- getics muni- (4) gons fic co- (2) dep. (9) LEGAL FINANCE. (56) ves (9) cation (5) ordi- CIVIL DEFENCE RECONSTRUCTION IT () (2) PLANNING (4) (4) and nation (7) dep. (6) Supply (46) (2) LANING(4)ener- (46) SAFETY STAFF and gy RESCUE SERVICE . CONTROL (5) ACCOUNTS. (9) 2 (35) Hospital (310) Technical School (24) Freight and commerce VP-1 VP-2 T-1 E-I G-1 P-I (135) B DI S (27) (28) (24) (115) (201) (149) P-2 (177) (126) T VP-3 T-2 E-2 G-2 P-3 (195) B D2 T (127) (135) M4 (46) (8) (291) (160) (163) P-4 (139) (291) I T-3 E-3 P-5 (25) N Office (47), (253) (196) s library (2), (110) track recor- ding cars (4) BALLAST FACTORY TRACK BUILDING UNIT WATER SUPPLY UNIT TRADING DEP. SECURITY Under Ministry of Transport Under Ministry of Transport (132) Table 6.2 ARMENIAN RAILWAYS STAFF STRUCTURE, 1988-1995 Number of People Activity 1988 1991 1993 1994 1995 Operational Staff Train Operators and Assistants 698 668 440 390 375 Rolling Stock Repair Staff 400 384 253 224 235 Train Service Staff 405 387 255 226 220 Track Repair Staff 517 495 326 289 290 Contact Network Electricians 263 252 166 147 150 Station Staff 710 680 448 398 390 Wagon Stewards 742 710 467 414 400 Other (Carpenters, Blacksmiths, Drivers, etc...) 3,200 3,064 2,016 1,765 1,850 Overheads and Administration 500 480 460 408 400 Total. Operational Staff 7,435 .120 4831 4,.261 4,31 Non-Operational or Non-Railway Activity Staff Doctors and Teachers 825 790 520 462 450 Other* 3,679 3,512 2,165 1,827 1,887 Total. Non-Operational and Non-Railway Activity Staff 4,Q54 4Q2 2,685 2,289 232 Total Staff 11,939 11,422 7,516 6,550 6,647 Source: Armenian Railways * Includes Other Non-Railway Activity Staff and Cahiers, Secretaries, etc. Table 6.3 RAILWAY Department - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts. October 1996 Key Assumptions and Income Statement Projections (1995 US$) Actual Projeoted ----- 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 KEY ASSUMPTIONS Traffic Passenger (pass) 2,969,400 1,715,000 857,500 0 0 0 0 0 0 Passenger.km (min pass.km) 165 95 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 Average trip (km) 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 Freight ft) 2,203,200 1,725,000 1,742,250 1,759,673 1,777,269 1,812,815 1,849,071 1,886,052 1,923,773 Freight (min t.km) 403 345 348 343 347 353 351 358 366 Average trip (km) 183 200 200 195 195 195 190 190 190 Average passenger tariff (USc / pass.km) 0.19 0.28 3.00 - - - Average freight tariff (USc I t.km) 1.90 2.00 5.00 6.00 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.50 Tariff for paying pass.km (UScipass.kml 0.36 0.52 3.92 - Non-paying pass.km / Total pass.km (Estimate, %) 47% 47% 23% - - Total Railway Staff 6,647 6,647 5,324 4,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 Average Salary ($/month) 11.4 20.0 35.0 42.0 50.4 60.5 72.6 87.1 104.5 OPERATING REVENUES (1995 USS1 Passenger Operations 310,684 262,839 1,429,455 0 0 0 0 0 0 Freight Operations 7,636,140 6,900,000 17,422,500 20,588,168 23,393,306 24,744,919 25,470,952 26,876,246 27,413,770 Total Operating Revenue 7,946,824 7,162,839 18,851,955 20,588,168 23,393,306 24,744,919 25,470,952 26,876,246 27,413,770 OPERATING EXPENSES (1995 US$1 Salary and Wages 909,158 1,595,280 2,238,870 2,016,000 1,814,400 2,177,280 2,612,736 3,135,283 3,762,340 Social Benefits 329,394 577,981 810,072 730,411 657,370 788,844 946,613 1,135,935 1,363,122 Operation and Maintenance 3,852,043 4,044,645 4,246,878 3,877,584 4,071,463 4,275,036 4,488,788 4,713,228 4,948,889 Fuel & Power 2,740,276 3,025,168 2,721,492 2,050,087 2,070,588 2,112,000 2,099,003 2,140,983 2,183,803 Severance 0 0 1,111,740 1,334,088 1,209,600 0 0 0 0 Other Expenses (incl. Excess Wage Tax and Other Taxes) 592,811 622,452 653,575 623,867 655,060 687,813 722,204 758,314 796,230 Total Operating Expenses 8,423.683 9,865,527 11,779,625 10,632,037 10,478,482 10,040,973 10,869,344 11,883,743 13,054,384 of which Passenger 1,306.831 1,140,143 756,629 0 0 0 0 0 0 Freight 7,116,852 8,725,384 11,022,996 10,632,037 10,478,482 10,040,973 10,869,344 11,883,743 13,054,384 Operating Profit Before Depreciation, Interest and Taxes -476,859 -2,702,688 7,072,330 9,956,131 12,914,825 14,703,946 14,601,608 14,992,502 14,359,387 Depreciation 255,785 8,689,205 8,694,205 8,856,705 9,756,705 10,216,705 10,754,205 11,336,705 11,929,205 Operating Profit Before Interest and Taxes -732,644 -11,391,893 -1,621,875 1,099,426 3,158,119 4,487,241 3,847,403 3,655,797 2,430,182 Interest on Borrowings and Other 0 150,000 0 0 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 Operating Profit Before Taxes -732,644 -11,541,893 -1,621,875 1,099,426 2,158,119 3,687,241 3,247,403 3,255,797 2,230,182 Non-Transport Activity Profit (Loss) 763,663 381,832 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Profit Before Taxes 31,019 -11,160,062 -1,621,875 1,099,426 2,158,119 3,687,241 3,247,403 3,255,797 2,230,182 Profit Tax (30%) 9,306 0 0 329,828 647,436 1,106,172 974,221 976,739 669,054 Net Profit after Tax 21,713 -11,160,062 -1,621,875 769,598 1,510,684 2,581,068 2,273,182 2,279,058 1,561,127 Nltes; Average 1995 Exchange Rate (USS/Dram): 406.2 (Source: IMF) All estimates net of VAT Table 6.4 RAILWAY Department - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, October 1996 Sources and Applications of Funds (1995 US$) ---- --- -------- --- --------- Proje oted ----- ----- --------------- 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 SOURCES Internal Sources Net Operating Profit Before Interest and Taxes -11,010,062 -1,621,875 1,099,426 3,158,119 4,487,241 3,847,403 3,655,797 2,430,182 Depreciation 8,689,205 8,694,205 8,856,705 9,756,705 10,216,705 10,754,205 11,336,705 11,929,205 Total. Internal Sources -2.320.856 7,072,330 9 956,131 12.914.825 14,703,946 14.601.608 14.992.502 14,359.387 Long Term Loan 0 0 10,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 Total Sources -2,320,856 7,072,330 19,956,131 12,914,825 14,703,946 14,601,608 14,992,502 14,359,387 APPLICATIONS Capital Investments Projects Financed by Internal Sources 100,000 3,250,000 8,000,000 9,200,000 10,750,000 11,650,000 11,850,000 11,500,000 Projects Financed by Long Term Loan 10,000,000 Total. Capital investments 100,000 3,250.000 18.000,000 9,200.000 10.750.000 11.650.000 11.850,000 11,500.000 Debt Service Interest 150,000 0 0 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 Principal 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 Total. Debt Service 150.00 Q Q 3.000,000 2,800,000 2.600,000 2.400,000 2.200,000 Profit Tax 0 0 329,828 647,436 1,106,172 974,221 976,739 669,054 Increase (Decrease) in Non-Cash Working Capital -2,630,276 3,811,267 1,274,553 -23,234 34,115 -534,820 -195,339 4,618 Total Applications -2,380,276 7,061,267 19,604,380 12,824,201 14,690,287 14,689,401 15,031,400 14,373,673 Surplus Funds 59,420 11,063 351,751 90,623 13,659 -87,793 -38,897 -14,286 Opening Cash Balance 165,601 225,020 236,084 587,834 678,458 692,117 604,324 565,426 Closing Cash Balance 225,020 236,084 587,834 678,458 692,117 604,324 565,426 551,140 Table 6.6 RAILWAY Department - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, October 1996 Balance Sheets at Years Ending December 31 (1995 US$) End of 1996 Asset Revaluation Coefficient: 8.7 Depreciation Coefficient: 5.0% Actual ----- ----- ----- Prolected 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ASSETS Fixed Assets Gross Fixed Assets 19,975,185 173,784,106 173,884,106 177,134,106 195,134,106 204,334,106 215,084,106 226,734,106 238,584,106 Less Accumulated Depreciation -6,153,619 -62,225,690 -70,919,895 -79,776,600 -89,533,306 -99,750,011 -110,504,216 -121,840,922 -133,770,127 Net Fixed Assets 13,821,566 111,558,417 102,964,211 97,357,506 105,600,801 104,584,095 104,579,890 104,893,185 104,813,979 Capital Work in Progress 0 100,000 3,250,000 18,000,000 9,200,000 10,750,000 11,650,000 11,850,000 11,500,000 Total, Fixed Assets 13,821,566 111 ,658417 106.214,211 115,357,506 114,800,801 115,334,095 116,229,890 116,743,185 116,313.979 Long-Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Current Assets Cash and Bank Notes 165,601 225,020 236,084 587,834 678,458 692,117 604,324 565,426 551,140 Short-Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Accounts Receivable 3,663,715 2,785,549 5,236,654 5,147,042 4,548,698 4,124,153 3,537,632 3,359,531 3,426,721 Inventories 1,177,181 1,177,181 1,177,181 1,177,181 1,177,181 1,177,181 1,177,181 1,177,181 1,177,181 Other Assets 120,355 120,355 120,355 120,355 120,355 120,355 120,355 120,355 120,355 Total. Current Assets 5f,126,851 4AQ0,1Q5 6.770,274 7.032412 6,524692 6.113806 5439492 5,222493 5,275,398 Total Assets 18,948,417 115,966,521 112,984,485 122,389,918 121,325,492 121,447,901 121,669,382 121,965,677 121,589,377 EQUITY and LIABILITIES Equity Capital 14,397,297 14,397,297 14,397,297 14,397,297 14,397,297 14,397,297 14,397,297 14,397,297 14,397,297 Capital Reserve 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Retained Earnings 0 -11,160,062 -12,781,937 -12,012,339 -10,501,655 -7,920,587 -5,647,405 -3,368,347 -1,807,220 Revaluation Reserve 34,892 106,460,948 106,460,948 106,460,948 106,460,948 106,460,948 106,460,948 106,460,948 106,460,948 Total Eauit 14,432,189 109,698,183 108,076,308 108,845,906 110,356,589 112,937,658 115,210,839 117.489,897 119,051.024 Long-Term Debt 0 0 0 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Liabilities Accounts Payable 970,229 822,127 981,635 886,003 873,207 836,748 905,779 990,312 1,087,865 Advances 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Borrowing 0 1,500,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Current Liabilities 3,546,000 3,946,211 3,926,542 2,658,009 2,095,696 1,673,496 1,552,763 1,485,468 1,450,487 Total. Liabilities 4.516.228 6,268,338 4.908,177 3,544012 2968,Q3 2.,510.243 2A58,542 2475780 2538352 Total Equity and Liabilities 18,948,417 115,966,521 112,984,485 122,389,918 121,325,492 121,447,901 121,669,382 121,965,677 121,589,377 Average 1995 Exchange Rate (US$/Dram): 406.2 All estimates net of VAT Table 6.6 RAILWAY Department - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, October 1996 Ratios of Financial Performance Actual ----- ----- Projected ------- ------------- 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Liquidity Current Assets/Current Liabilities 1.14 0.69 1.38 1.98 2.20 2.44 2.21 2.11 2.08 Quick Assets/Current Liabilities 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.17 0.23 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.22 Operating Performance (Working Expenses+Depreciation)/Revenues 109% 259% 109% 95% 86% 82% 85% 86% 91% Profitability Return on Gross Fixed Assets 0.1% -6.4% -0.9% 0.4% 0.8% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% Return on Net Fixed Assets 0.2% -10.0% -1.6% 0.8% 1.4% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.5% Debt, Financial Leverage Debt Service Coverage na na na na 4.30 5.25 5.62 6.25 6.53 Interest Coverage na na na na 3.16 5.61 6.41 9.14 12.15 Receivables and Payables Receivables/Annual Billings (Days) 166 140 100 90 70 60 50 45 45 Total Payables/Annual Expenditures (Days) 193 174 150 120 102 90 81 75 70 Table 7.1 Arrivals and departures, Yerevan (000's) - 1994 Departure Arrival AAL** AAL** Month Total Other Total Other airlines airlines Pax. Share % Pax. Share % I 41.1 16.5 24.6 60% 23.2 9.3 13.9 60% II 36.6 14.4 22.2 60% 22.1 8.6 13.5 61% II 32.6 12.7 19.9 61% 34.8 13.6 21.2 60% IV 31.3 11.9 19.4 62% 31.1 11.8 19.3 62% V 43.4 17.9 25.5 59% 30.5 12.5 18 59% VI 38.7 15.3 23.4 60% 31.5 12.6 18.9 60% VII 41.2 16.4 24.8 62% 36.7 14.7 22 60% Vill 45.8 18.9 26.9 59% 30.8 6.0 24.8 80% IX 41.1 15.9 25.2 61% 35.6 10.2 25.4 71% X 37.3 15.6 21.7 58% 30.6 6.9 23.7 77% XI 36.7 15.5 21.2 58% 29.9 9.0 20.9 70% XII 40.1 18.2 21.9 55% 32.0 9.7 22.3 69% Table 7.2 Arrivals and departures, Yerevan (000's) - 1995 Departure Arrival AAL** AAL* Month Total Other Total Other airlines airlines Pax. Share % Pax. Share % I 28.7 12.2 16.5 57% 15.6 5.1 10.5 67% II 28.6 14.0 14.6 51% 20.5 8.4 12.1 59% II 34.4 15.7 18.7 54% 29.8 12.0 17.8 59% IV 30.5 14.9 15.6 51% 27.4 13.0 14.4 53% V 36.5 18.7 17.8 49% 29.4 15.3 14.1 48% VI 33.6 15.9 17.7 53% 33.4 14.3 19.1 57% VII 35.9 16.0 19.9 55% 39.4 16.7 22.7 58% Vill 46.7 22.7 24.0 51% 42.2 17.5 24.7 59% IX 37.7 17.9 19.8 53% 41.3 18.5 22.8 55% X 33.2 15.3 17.9 54% 37.8 17.0 20.8 55% XI 32.5 18.0 14.5 45% 36.9 19.5 17.4 47% XII 33.3 18.9 14.4 43% 43.9 24.0 19.9 45% Table 7.3 Arrivals and departures, Yerevan (O0O's) - 1996 Departure Arrival AAL** AAL** Month Total Other Total Other airlines airlines Pax. Share % Pax. Share % I 29.2 16.4 12.8 44% 22.1 11.6 10.5 48% II 24.5 15.2 9.3 38% 21.1 12.1 9.0 43% II 26.5 14.0 12.5 47% 27.6 13.4 14.2 51% IV 26.8 12.8 14.0 52% 23.5 10.7 12.8 54% V 29.0 16.3 17.6 12.5 VI 18.2 15.2 19.4 17.2 Table 7.4 Organizational structure of the Armenian Airlines Group Board of Auditing "Ararat Directors Committee Airlines" tate Daughter Enterprise (431 employees) Flight Operations General Center Director "Giumri Airlines" tate Daughter Enterprise (214 employees) Flight Safety Commercial Flight Technical Financial Corporate Inspection Directorate Directorate Directorate Directorate Directorate (44 employees) (474 employees)(524 employees) (98 employees) (27 employees) I I II II I Business Management Deputy Director Deputy Director Financial (56 employees) (76 employees) Inspection Data processing Center Transportatio Fuel Communications Special Buildings and Department Catering Supply and Power Transport Structures Service Supply Means Operations Source : Armenian Airlines Table 7.5 Armenian airlines fleet Type of aircraft Number Capacity Average in fleet (seats) age max/min Ilyushin 11-86 (1) 3 332/350 8 Tupolev Tu-154B (2) 10 145/168 18 Tupolev Tu-1 34A/A (3) 8 72/80 23 Yakovlev Yak-40 (4) 9 27 19 Totallaverage 30 112 19 Source: ITA Databank, World Bank mission (1) of which 1 is out of operation (2) of which 2 are out of operation , one full cargo and one combi (62 passengers) (3) of which 2 are operated by Shirak daughter company (Giumri Airlines) (4) all operated by daughter company Ararat Airlines Table 7.6 Armenian Airlines services to and from Zvartnots Airport Summer 1996 Country/City Weekly Aircraft Fares Distance Fares 1,995 hts type (US$) ((UScent/km) Traffic IATA ciS citizens IATA CIS citizens (1) (1) (2) Central and Western Europe 33,225 Amsterdam 2 TU-154 1,200 750 3,280 36.6 22.9 6,805 Athens 1 TU-134 920 320 1,797 51.2 17.8 2,957 Athens 1 TU-134 920 320 1,797 51.2 17.8 Frankfurt 1 TU-154 1,037 802 2,983 34.8 26.9 Istanbul 1 TU-134 n.d. n.d. 1,317 n.d. n.d. Paris 1 IL-86 1,135 750 3,419 33.2 21.9 16,180 Sofia/Burgas 1 TU-134 555 n.d. 1,768 31.4 n.d. 7,283 CIS Countries 284,486 Ashgabad 1 TU-134 245 130 1,230 19.9 10.6 8,013 Kharkov 1 TU-134 200 110 1,266 15.8 8.7 3,217 Krasnodar 3 TU-134 135 95 705 19.1 13.5 n.d. Lvov 1 TU-154 210 130 1,923 10.9 6.8 n.d. Minsk 1 TU-154 205 110 1,979 10.4 5.6 3,121 Moscow 11 TU-154 680 111 1,795 37.9 6.2 166,764 Novosibirsk 2 TU-154 335 225 3,273 10.2 6.9 23,680 Odessa 1 TU-134 200 120 1,316 15.2 9.1 3,667 Rostov 3 TU-134 156 92 882 17.7 10.4 15,818 Simferopol 1 TU-134 190 115 1,002 19.0 11.5 3,197 Simferopol 1 TU-154 190 115 1,002 19.0 11.5 Sochi 4 TU-134 125 90 550 22.7 16.4 37,746 Volgograd 1 TU-134 145 115 956 15.2 12.0 2,957 Yekaterinburg 1 TU-154 300 190 2,194 13.7 8.7 16,306 Others 10,176 Beirut 1 TU-134 230 145 1,057 21.8 13.7 1,981 Dubai 2 TU-154 320 230 1,942 16.5 11.8 4,134 Tehran 7 TU-134 159 95 783 20.3 12.1 4,061 Total flights (perweek): 40 jAverage flight length: 1,905 j Total 1995 traffic: 327,887 (1) Only fares to other CIS countries show real discrimination on nationality (CIS citizenship or not) On IATA western destinations, fares indicated here do not refer to nationality but correspond to tour operator distribution which, in practice, represents the main airline ticket booking system used by Armenian citizens (2) Lines non operated in 1995 when traffic is not indicated Does not include Mineral Vody (disrupted in 1996), in spite of 25 955 passengers in 1995 Table 7.7 Air services by foreign airlines to and from Zvartnots Airport Summer 1996 Country/City Airline Weekly Aircraft flights type Central and Western Europe Aleppo Y 1 TU-1 54 Table 7.8 - Air services to and from Yerevan, Erebuni Airport Almaty Ys 1 TU-154 Summer 1996 Astrakhan IOA 1 TU- 134 Chimkent Y5 1 TU-1 54 Country/City Airline Weekly Aircraft Dnepkopetrovsk YPH 1 YAK-42 flights type Donetsk 6Y 1 YAK-42 Kiev Y5 1 TU-154 Kiev 6Y 1 TU-134 Min Vody R3 7 YAK-40 Kharkov 6Y 1 TU-134 Min Vody R3 7 YAK-40 Krasnodar 1OK 3 YAK-42 Stavropol R3 7 YAK-40 Kustanay K3A 1 AN-24 Tbilisi R3 3 YAK-40 Lugansk 6Y 1 AN-24 Vladikovkas R3 2 YAK-40 Lvov YKP 1 YAK-42 Min Vody AHK 7 YAK-40 Min Vody AHK 3 YAK-40 Minsk BY 4 TU- 154 Table 7.9 - Air services to and from Yerevan, Shirak Airport Moscow CY 4 IL-62 Summer 1996 Moscow CY 4 TU-154 Moscow YK 3 IL-86 Country/City Airline Weekly Aircraft NIhni Novgorod HH 2 TU- 154 flights type Novosbirsk C7 1 TU-154 Odessa 6Y 1 TU- 154 Perm YH 1 TU- 134 Rostov D9 4 TU-134 Krasnodar R3 2 TU-134 Samara Y5 3 TU-154 Moscow R3 4 TU-1 34 Samara E5 1 TU- 154 Rostov R3 1 TU-134 Saratov COX 1 YAK-42 Samara R3 2 TU-134 Simferopol YKP 7 YAK-42 Sochi /OH 3 AN-24 Sochi IOH 2 AN-24 St Petersburg /OH 1 TU- 154 St Petersburg Y5 1 TU-1 54 Tyumen Y5 1 TU-1 54 Volgograd /OH 1 YAK-42 Voronejh BK 2 YAK-42 Yekaterinburg Y6 1 TU- 154 Zaporojhye 6Y 1 TU-134 Others Larnaca Y5 1 TU-1 54 Y5 Arax Airlines Table 7.10 ARMENIAN AIRLINES - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, May 1997 Key Assumptions and Income Statement Projections 11996 US$) Actual Projected ----- -----........... 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 KEY ASSUMPTIONS Traffic Passenger (pass) 428,000 358,100 340,195 340,195 343,597 347,033 350,503 354,008 357,548 Passenger.km (min pass.km) 849 747 723 738 760 783 807 831 856 Average trip (km) 1,984 2,085 2,127 2,169 2,213 2,257 2,302 2,348 2,395 Frei0ht (t) 7,406 5,419 5.148 6,148 5,199 5,261 5,304 5,357 5,410 Freight (min t.kmi 16.2 12.0 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 Average trip (km) 2,188 2,214 2,127 2,169 2,213 2,257 2,302 2,348 2,395 Average passenger tariff (USc / pass.km) 4.59 6.50 6.80 7.40 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.76 Average freight tariff (USc I t.kmI 25.62 60.63 63.00 65.00 65.00 68.00 70.00 70.00 70.00 Total Armenian Airlines Staff 1,850 1,960 1,550 1,450 1,300 1,150 1,000 1,000 1,000 Average Salary ($1month) 104,7 142.2 175.0 201.3 231.4 266.2 306.1 352.0 404.8 OPERATING REVENUES (1996 US$) Passenger Operations 39,002,941 48,509,156 49,194,967 54,606,414 57,775,947 59.520,781 61,318,308 63,170,121 66,362,290 Freight Operations 2,973,412 7,273,689 6,896,855 7,258,119 7,477,314 8,058,658 8,546,207 8,804,303 9,070,192 Excess Baggage 1,765,485 1,928,159 1,759,612 1,794,804 1,849,007 1,904,848 1,962,374 2,021,638 2,082,691 Other (incl. mail) 2,718,034 2,573,588 2,491,511 2,641,341 2,618,090 2,697,156 2,778,610 2,862,524 2,948,972 Total Operating Revenue 46,459,872 60,284,592 60,342,946 66,200,678 69,720,358 72,181,442 74,605,499 76,858.585 80,464,146 OPERATING EXPENSES (1996 US$1 Salary and Wages 2,324,188 3,327,286 3,256,000 3,501,750 3,610,425 3,672,913 3,672,913 4,223,850 4,857,428 Social Benefits 859,417 1,151,418 1,126,403 1,211,792 1,249,399 1,271,023 1,271,023 1,461.677 1,680,928 Operation and Maintenance (including airport expenses) 27,567,408 29,177,403 29,659,218 31.008,713 31,146,547 32,087,172 33,056,205 34,054,502 35,082,948 Fuel & Petrol 13,936,041 15,760,576 15,839,387 15,154,566 14,051,010 14,475,351 14,912,506 15,362,864 15,826,823 Severance 0 0 1,680,000 483,000 833,175 958,151 1,101,874 0 0 Leasing of Aircraft 5,250,000 8,400,000 8,400,000 8,400,000 8,400,000 8,400,000 Expenses Not Tax-exempted* n/a 1,057,223 1,067,795 1.078,473 1,089,258 1,100,150 1,111,152 1.122,264 1,133.486 Other Expenses (incl. taxes other than 30% profit tax) 1,591,073 1,388,607 1,458,037 1.530,939 1,607,486 1,687,860 1,772,254 1.860.866 1,953,909 Total Operating Expenses 46,278,126 51,862,513 53,885,841 59,219,233 61,987,300 63,652,622 65.297,927 66,486,023 68,935,523 Operating Profit Before Depreciation, Interest and Tax 181,746 8,422,079 6,457,105 6.981,445 7,733,058 8,528,820 9,307,572 10,372,562 11,528,623 Depreciation 140,226 1,024,958 5,858,267 6,398,267 7,073,267 7,833,267 8,623,267 9,498,267 10,468,267 Operating Profit Before Interest and Tax 41,620 7,397,121 598,837 583,178 659,791 695,553 684,304 874,295 1,060,356 Financial Charges and Other" -288,565 -201,595 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating Profit Before Tax 330,085 7,598,716 598,837 583,178 659,791 695,553 684,304 874,295 1,060,356 Profit Tax (30%)* 99,025 2,596,782 499,990 498,495 524,715 538,711 538,637 598,967 658,153 Net Profit after Tax 231,059 5,001,934 98,847 84,683 135,076 156,842 145,667 275,327 402203 Includes Medical Services, Per Diems, Training, Allocations to Students of the Aviation School, Catering for Crew, Transportation of Staff, Parking and Bonuses In 1995, exchange differences generated a positive financial charge 30% on Profit Before Tax + Expenses Not Tax-exempted Average 1995 Exchange Rate iUS$/Dram): 406.2 (Source: IMF) Average 1996 Exchange Rate (US$/Dram): 415.0 (Source: Armenian Airlines) All estimates net of VAT Table 7.11 ARMENIAN AIRLINES - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, May 1997 Sources and Applications of Funds (1996 US$) Actual ----- ----- --- -- ----- - ---- ---- Projected ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 SOURCES Internal Sources Net Operating Profit Before Interest and Taxes 7,397,121 598,837 583,178 659,791 695,553 684,304 874,295 1,060,356 Depreciation 1,024,958 5,858,267 6,398,267 7,073,267 7,833,267 8,623,267 9,498,267 10,468,267 Total. Internal Sources 8,422,079 6,457,105 6,981,445 7,733,058 8,628,820 9,307,572 10.372.562 11.528,623 Long Term Loan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Sources 8,422,079 6,457,105 6,981,445 7,733,058 8,528,820 9,307,572 10,372,562 11,528,623 APPLICATIONS Capital Investments Projects Financed by Internal Sources 3,480,332 5,400,000 6,750,000 7,600,000 7,900,000 8,750,000 9,700,000 10,800,000 Projects Financed by Long Term Loan 0 Total. Capital Investments 3,480,332 5,400,000 6,750,000 7.600,000 7,900,000 8,750,000 9.700,000 10,800,000 Debt Service Interest -201,595 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Principal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total. Debt Service - Q Q Q 0 Q _Q Profit Tax 2,596,782 499,990 498,495 524,715 538,711 538,637 598,967 658,153 Increase (Decrease) in Non-Cash Working Capital 2,548,873 558,289 -344,935 -457,073 32,132 31,229 57,456 46,261 Total Applications 8,424,391 6,458,278 6,903,561 7,667,641 8,470,843 9,319,865 10,356,424 11,504,414 Surplus Funds -2,312 -1,174 77,885 65,417 57,978 -12,294 16,138 24,210 Opening Cash Balance 192,558 190,246 189,072 266,957 332,374 390,351 378,058 394,196 Closing Cash Balance 190,246 189,072 266,957 332,374 390,361 378,058 394,196 418,405 Table 7.12 ARMENIAN AIRLINES - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, May 1997 Balance Sheets at Years Ending December 31 (1996 US$) End of 1997 Asset Revaluation Coefficient: 1 Depreciation Coefficient: 10.0% Actual --- ----- Projected ----- ----- 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ASSETS Fixed Assets Gross Fixed Assets 4,917,090 58,582,675 58,582,675 63,982,675 70,732,675 78,332,675 86,232,675 94,982,675 104,682,675 Less Accumulated Depreciation -1,868,816 -43,945,913 -49,804,181 -56,202,448 -63,275,716 -71,108,983 -79,732,251 -89,230,518 -99,698,786 Net Fixed Assets 3,048,274 14,636,761 8,778,494 7,780,227 7,456,959 7,223,692 6,500,424 5,752,157 4,983,889 Capital Work in Progress 0 0 5,400,000 6,750,000 7,600,000 7,900,000 8,750,000 9,700,000 10,800,000 Total. Fixed Assets 3,48,224 14.636.761 14,178,494 14.53Q.227 15.056.959 15.123692 15,250.424 15452,157 15.783.889 Long-Term investments 4,924 4,819 4,819 4,819 4,819 4,819 4,819 4,819 4,819 Current Assets Cash and Bank Notes 192,558 190,246 189,072 266,957 332,374 390,351 378,058 394,196 418,405 Short-Term investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Accounts Receivable 3,661,302 7,005,643 5,866,675 5,516,723 4,841,692 5,012,600 5,180,937 5,337,402 5,587,788 inventories 898,400 1,444,443 1,444,443 1,444,443 1,444,443 1,444,443 1,444,443 1,444,443 1,444,443 Other Assets 9,183 11,993 11,993 11,993 11,993 11,993 11,993 11,993 11,993 Total. Current Assets 4,271,443 8,652325 7i12 18 240116 630501 6893 7Q15431 7,188Q34 7A2,630 Total Assets 7,814,641 23,293,906 21,695,497 21,775,162 21,692,280 21,987,898 22,270,674 22,645,010 23,251,338 EQUITY and LIABILITIES Equity Capital 486,302 475,990 475,990 475,990 475,990 475,990 475,990 475,990 475,990 Capital Reserve 1,355,761 13,560,164 13,560,164 13,560,164 13,560,164 13,560,164 13,560,164 13,60,164 13,560,164 Retained Earnings 231,059 2,171,911 2,270,758 2,355,441 2,490,517 2,647,359 2,793,026 3,068,354 3,470,557 Revaluation Reserve 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Eauity 2,023122 16.208.065 16.306.912 16.391,595 16.526,671 16.683,51.3 16.829,181 17.104.508 17.506.711 Long-Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Liabilities Accounts Payable 5.012,312 6,561,660 5,388,584 5,383,667 5,165,608 5,304,385 5,441,494 5,540,502 5,744,627 Advances 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Borrowing 0 524,181 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Current Liabilities 729,207 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total. Liabilities 111. .08..841 5A388584 5,38356Z 5165 L5544149 5&5D..502 4LZA4&&Z Total Equity and Liabilities 7,814,641 23,293,906 21,695,497 21,775,162 21,692,280 21,987,898 22,270,674 22,645,010 23,251,338 Table 7.13 ARMENIAN AIRLINES - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, May 1997 Ratios of Financial Performance Actual ----- Projected 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Liquidity Current Assets/Current Liabilities 0.83 1.22 1.39 1.34 1.28 1.29 1.29 1.30 1.30 Quick Assets/Current Liabilities 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 Operating Performance (Working Expenses+Depreciation)/Revenues 100% 88% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% Profitability Return on Gross Fixed Assets 4.7% 8.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% Return on Net Fixed Assets 7.6% 34.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 4.8% 8.1% Debt & Financial Leverage Debt Service Coverage na na na na na na na na na Interest Coverage na na na na na na na na na Lease Payment Coverage na na na 2.33 1.92 2.02 2.11 2.23 2.37 Receivables and Payables Receivables/Annual Billings (Days) 28 42 35 30 25 25 25 25 25 Total Payables/Annual Expenditures (Days) 45 46 36 33 30 30 30 30 30 Table 7.14 ZVARTNOTS AIRPORT - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts. October 1996 I May 1997 Key Assumptions and Income Statement Projections (1995 US$1) Actual -. .-... -. - --. . . .- ..- ProJ cted -.. ..--- . . .. .. --. ..- ---- 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 KEY ASSUMPTIONS Traffic Aircraft Take-offs 7,094 6,771 6,961 7,163 7,378 7,673 7.987 8,314 8,655 Average Aircraft Weight (t) 75 75 75 75 76 75 15 75 75 Cargo Turnover (t) 42,800 20,510 20,715 21,129 21,763 22.633 23,765 24,953 26,201 Passenger Traffic (departing, pass) 403,616 430,425 443.338 456,638 470,337 489,151 508,717 529,065 550.228 Tariffs Take-off Charge I$ / t) 8.3 8.3 10.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 Cargo Handling Tariff ($ / f 6.0 52.5 120.0 170.0 220.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 Passenger Tax 1$ I pass.) 4.8 4.8 5.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Total Airport Staff 1,918 1,810 1,750 1,400 1,300 1,200 1.110 1,050 1,000 Average Salary ($/month) 31.4 65.7 78.9 90.7 104.3 120.0 138.0 158.7 182.5 AIRPORT REVENUES (1995 USS) Take-off & Landing* 4,412,755 4,211,694 5,220,696 5,909,647 6,086,936 6,330,414 6,589,533 6,859,312 7,140,191 Cargo Handling- 256,800 1,076,760 2,485,777 3,591,948 4,787,855 5,658,374 5,941,293 6,238,358 6,550,276 Passenger Tax 1,930,231 2,058,447 2,216,690 2,739,828 3,292,361 3,424,055 3,561,017 3,703,458 3,851,696 Rentals (incl. of cargo terminal facilities in 1995 and 19961 659,084 549,237 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 Security 427,137 407,675 419,125 431,304 444,243 462,013 480,924 500,613 521,113 Parking 364,045 347,468 357,216 367,596 378,624 393,769 409,887 426,668 444,140 Other fincl. mail, baggage handling and other non-operating) 272,408 290,502 299,217 308,194 317,440 330,137 343,343 357,077 371,360 Total Airport Revenues 8,322,460 8,941,773 11,498,721 13,848,518 15,807,460 17,098,763 17,825,997 18,585,485 19,378,675 AIRPORT EXPENSES (1995 US$) .* Salary and Wages 722,169 1,427,868 1,656,642 1,524,111 1,627,533 1,727,689 1,837,829 1,999,260 2,189,666 Social Benefits 267,191 528,289 612,931 563,897 602,161 639,217 679,968 739,694 810,142 Operating Expenses 1,323,117 1,325,972 1,192,811 1,288,847 1,367,337 1,464,692 1,570,384 1,683,717 1,805,243 Maintenance 2,118,607 2,123,179 1,909,957 2,063,732 2,189,414 2,345,300 2,514,538 2,696,009 2,890,599 Transportation 467,883 446.564 382,588 393,706 405,517 421,738 439,001 456,974 475,686 Communication 251,305 239,854 205,492 211,454 217,808 226,520 235,792 245,445 255,496 Severance 170,398 113,598 762,056 250,390 287,948 298.026 228,487 218,967 Other Expenses (incl. overheads & taxes other than profit tax) 448,560 428,122 366,788 377,447 388,770 404,321 420,871 438,101 456,041 Total Airport Expenses 5,598,831 6,690,246 6,440,809 7,185,259 7,048,930 7,517,425 7,996,408 8,487,687 9,101,839 Profit Before Depreciation, Interests and Taxes 2,723,629 2,251,527 5,057,912 6,663,259 8,758,530 9,581,338 9,829,589 10,097,798 10,276,837 Depreciation 48,875 6.005,908 6,147,608 7,505,203 7,706,308 7,951,558 8,237,683 8,559,233 8,908,033 Profit Before Interests and Taxes 2,674,754 -3,754,381 -1,089,696 -841,944 1,052,221 1,629,780 1,591,906 1,538,565 1,368,804 Interests on non-EBRO Borrowings and Financial Charges"" -144,399 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Profit Before Taxes 2,819,154 -3,754,381 -1,089,696 -841,944 1,052,221 1,629,780 1,591,906 1,538,565 1,368,804 Profit Tax (30%) 845,746 0 0 0 315,666 488,934 477,572 461,570 410,641 Net Profit after Tax 1,973,407 -3,754,381 -1,089,696 -841,944 736,555 1,140,846 1,114,334 1,076,996 958,163 Interests and Financial Charges on EBRO Loan 100,000 1,204,040 1,438,880 1,353 200 1190,000 1,026,800 863,600 700,400 Net Profit after tax and EBRD Loan Interest 1,973,407 -3,854,381 -2,293,736 -2,280,824 -616,645 -49,154 87,534 213,396 257,763 Average 1995 Exchange Rate (US$/Dram): 406.2 (Source: IMF) All estimates net of VAT Notes' * Excluding Air Traffic Control Cargo handling was not an exclusive airport activity before 1996 * Operating Expenses include Air Traffic Control (representing about 20% of total operating expenses) in 1996; ATC becomes a separeted entity by 1997 In 1995, exchange rate differences generated a positive financial charge Paid from Profit after Tax Table 7.15 ZVARTNOTS AIRPORT - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, October 1996 / May 1997 Sources and Applications of Funds (1995 US$) ..--- ----- ----- ----- -- --- ----- ----- Projeceted ----- ----- -- --- ----- ----- ----- ----- 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 SOURCES Internal Sources Net Operating Profit Before Interest and Taxes -3,754,381 -1,089,696 -841,944 1,052,221 1,629,780 1,591,906 1,538,565 1,368,804 Depreciation 6,005,908 6,147,608 7,505,203 7,706,308 7,951,558 8,237,683 8,559,233 8,908,033 Total. Internal Sources 2.251.527 5.057.912 6.663.259 8,758.530 9.581.338 9.829.589 10.9.Z,.8 10.276.837 EBRD Loan 500,000 21,160,000 1,140,000 0 0 0 0 0 Other Loan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Sources 2,751,527 26,217,912 7,803,259 8,758,530 9,581,338 9,829,589 10,097,798 10,276,837 APPLICATIONS Capital Investments Cargo Terminal Project, Local Financing 1,000,000 3,000,000 1,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 Cargo Terminal Project, Foreign (EBRD) Financing 500,000 21,160,000 1,140,000 0 0 0 0 0 Other Projects Financed by Internal Sources 1,100,000 750,000 1,550,000 4,500,000 5,250,000 5,900,000 6,400,000 6,750,000 Other Projects Financed by Long Term Loan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total. Capital Investments 2.600.000 24.910,000 3.690.000 4.500.000 5,250,000 5.900,000 6.400,000 6.750.000 Debt Service EBRD Loan Interest 100,000 1,204,040 1,438,880 1,353,200 1,190,000 1,026,800 863,600 700,400 EBRD Loan Principal 2,400,000 2,400,000 2,400,000 2,400,000 2,400,000 2,400,000 Other Loan Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Loan Principal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total. Debt Service 100,000 1,204.040 3,838.880 3.753,200 3.590.000 3.426.800 3.263,600 3.100.400 Profit Tax 0 0 0 315,666 488,934 477,572 461,570 410,641 Increase (Decrease) in Non-Cash Working Capital 33,325 36,433 241,898 233,136 208,512 -7,823 -6,892 -21,637 Total Applications 2,733,325 26,150,473 7,770,778 8,802,001 9,537,446 9,796,549 10,118,278 10,239,404 Surplus Funds 18,202 67,439 32,480 -43,472 43,892 33,041 -20,479 37,432 Opening Cash Balance 73,966 92,168 159,607 192,087 148,616 192,507 225,548 205,069 Closing Cash Balance 92,168 159,607 192,087 148,616 192,507 225,548 205,069 242,501 Table 7.16 ZVARTNOTS AIRPORT - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, October 1996 I May 1997 Balance Sheets at Years Ending December 31 (1995 US$) End of 1996 Asset Revaluation Coefficient: 69 Depreciation Coefficient: 5.45% Actual ----- ----- ----- Projected ----- ---------- 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ASSETS Fixed Assets Gross Fixed Assets 1,597,103 110,200,147 112,800,147 137,710,147 141,400,147 145,900,147 151,150,147 157,060,147 163,460,147 Less Accumulated Depreciation -515,734 -41,591,545 -47,739,153 -55,244,356 -62,950,665 -70,902,223 -79,139,906 -87,699,139 -96,607,172 Net Fixed Assets 1,081,369 68,608,602 65,060,994 82,465,791 78,449,483 74,997,925 72,010,242 69,351,009 66,842,976 Capital Work in Progress 64 2,600,000 24,910,000 3,690,000 4,500,000 5,250,000 5,900,000 6,400,000 6,750,000 Total. Fixed Assets 1,QI,4332 71.208,602 89,970.994 86.155.791 82.949.483 80,247.925 77,910,242 75.751,009 73.592.976 Long-Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Current Assets Cash and Bank Notes 73,966 92,168 159,607 192,087 148,616 192,507 225,548 205,069 242,501 Short-Term investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Accounts Receivable 1,162,694 1,117,722 1,277,636 1,346,384 1,317,288 1,424,897 1,485,500 1,548,790 1,614,890 Inventories 958,968 958,968 958,968 958,968 958,968 958,968 958,968 958,968 958,968 Other Assets 29,232 29,232 29,232 29,232 29,232 29,232 29,232 29,232 29,232 Total. Current Assets 2,224,.859 2908 2,25442 2,526,67 2,44103 2.605,60 2,699247 2742,Q5 2,84550 Total Assets 3,306,292 73,406,691 92,396,436 88,682,461 86,403,586 82,853,528 80,609,489 78,493,067 76,438,566 EQUITY and LIABILITIES Equity Capital 678,173 678,173 678,173 678,173 678,173 678,173 678,173 678,173 678,173 Capital Reserve 913,101 913,101 913,101 913,101 913,101 913,101 913,101 913,101 913,101 Retained Earnings 0 -3,854,381 -6,148,117 -8,428,941 -9,045,586 -9,094,740 -9,007,206 -8,793,810 -8,536,048 Revaluation Reserve 0 73,533,077 73,533,077 73,533,077 73,533,077 73,533,077 73,533,077 73,533,077 73,533,077 Total Eauity 1,J91,24 71.269.97 68.976.234 66.695.410 66.078.76 66.029,611 66,117,145 66.330.54 66.588.303 Long-Term Debt 0 500,000 21,660,000 20,400,000 18,000,000 15,600,000 13,200,000 10,800,000 8,400,000 Liabilities Accounts Payable 1,580,254 1,486,721 1,610,202 1,437,052 1,174,822 1,073,918 1,142,344 1,212,527 1,300,263 Advances 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Borrowing 134,765 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Current Liabilities 0 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 Total. Liabilities 1715.18 1,6360721 1760.202 1,687,052 .L324,822 1223,218 1,292.3 1,362,527 1,0A,263 Total Equity and Liabilities 3,306,292 73,406,691 92,396,436 88,682,461 85,403,586 82,853,528 80,609,489 78,493,067 76,438,566 Average 1995 Exchange Rate (US$/Dram): 406.2 (Source: IMF) Table 7.17 ZVARTNOTS AIRPORT - World Bank Preliminary Forecasts, October 1996 / May 1997 Ratios of Financial Performance Actual ---------------------------------- ------------------------------_Proje:ted 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Liquidity Current Assets/Current Liabilities 1.30 1.34 1.38 1.59 1.85 2.13 2.09 2.01 1.96 Quick Assets/Current Liabilities 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.11 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.17 Operating Performance (Working Expenses+Depreciation)/Revenues 68% 142% 109% 106% 93% 90% 91% 92% 93% Profitability Return on Gross Fixed Assets 123.6% -3.4% -1.0% -0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% Return on Net Fixed Assets 182.5% -5.5% -1.7% -1.0% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% Debt, Financial Leverage Debt Service Coverage na 22.52 4.20 1.74 2.33 2.67 2.87 3.09 3.31 Interest Coverage na -37.54 -0.91 -0.59 0.78 1.37 1.55 1.78 1.95 Receivables and Payables Receivables/Annual Billings (Days) 50 45 40 35 30 30 30 30 30 Total Payables/Annual Expenditures (Days) 102 88 98 80 68 59 58 58 57 Table 9.1 a TRANSPORT SECTOR PUBUC REVENUES and EXPENDITURES - BORDER OPENING SCENARIO 1995 US* Actual --_P___ted 1996 1996* 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 REVENUES Urban Transport (Metro of Yerevan) 2,485,229 2,929,591 5,862,184 9,059,700 9,945,975 10,045,435 10,551,725 11,067,136 11,591,800 Armenian Railways 8,710,487 7,544,671 18,851,955 20,588,168 23,393,306 24,744,919 25,470,952 26,876,246 27,413,770 Armenian Airlines 46,459,872 54,081,300 57,348,420 66,371,516 69,052,717 71,840,472 78,400,085 81,921,724 85,594,222 Zvartnots Airport 8,322,460 8,941,773 11,498,721 13,425,936 15,372,200 17,098,763 17,825,997 18,585,485 19,378,675 Total Revenues 65,978,048 73,497,335 93,561,281 109,445,320 117,764,198 123,729,589 132,248,759 138,450,591 143,978,468 EXPENSES (including depreciation and financial charges) Urban Transport (Metro of Yerevan) 2,575,492 7,082,354 8,000,711 8,241,472 9,178,947 9,573,686 10,030,634 10,564,447 11,186,078 Armenian Railways 8,679,468 18,704,732 20,473,831 19,488,743 21,235,187 21,057,679 22,223,549 23,620,449 25,183,589 Armenian Airlines 46,129,787 51,529,243 54,211,327 65,744,076 68,305,378 71,008,806 77,818,082 81,319,051 85,098,431 Zvartnots Airport 5,503,306 12,625,756 13,943,825 15,668,829 16,048,671 16,315,181 16,903,574 17,415,624 18,352,365 Total Expenses 62,888,054 89,942,085 96,629,694 109,143,119 114,768,184 117,955,352 126,975,838 132,919,571 139,820,463 Gross Profit 3,089,994 -16,444,751 -3,068,414 302,201 2,996,014 5,774,236 5,272,921 5,531,020 4,158,005 Sources: Ministry of Transport, all transport sub-sectoral entities and mission estimates * Based on 6 months of actual information Average 1995 Exchange Rate (US$/Dram): 406.2 (Source: IMF) All estimates net of VAT Table 9.1 b TRANSPORT SECTOR PUBLIC REVENUES and EXPENDITURES -- STATUS QUO SCENARIO 1995 US$ Actual ----- Projected-- ----- ----------- 1995 1996* 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 REVENUES Urban Transport (Metro of Yerevan) 2,485,229 2,929,591 3,018,184 3,080,000 3,850,000 3,888,500 4,712,862 4,759,991 4,807,591 Armenian Railways 8,710,487 7,544,671 8,596,040 8,909,375 9,750,313 10,692,163 10,530,133 10,630,435 10,731,739 Armenian Airlines 46,459,872 54,081,300 53,704,190 56,681,096 59,773,283 61,880,291 64,061,571 66,319,741 68,657,512 Zvartnots Airport 8,322,460 8,941,773 10,475,293 11,217,536 11,660,081 11,980,902 12,307,023 12,758,701 13,223,724 Total Revenues 65,978,048 73,497,335 75,793,706 79,888,007 85,033,676 88,441,855 91,611,589 94,468,868 97,420,566 EXPENSES (including depreciation and financial charges) Urban Transport (Metro of Yerevan) 2,575,492 7,082,354 7,966,557 8,247,483 9,382,206 9,824,834 10,339,214 10,941,907 11,646,146 Armenian Railways 8,679,468 18,704,732 20,556,417 21,475,447 24,203,957 25,800,839 27,631,886 29,825,577 32,335,717 Armenian Airlines 46,129,787 51,529,243 54,294,856 66,171,702 69,288,633 72,787,336 80,779,933 84,888,129 89,336,605 Zvartnots Airport 5,503,306 12,625,756 13,863,160 15,333,564 15,922,325 16,522,770 17,255,110 18,134,113 19,140,660 Total Expenses 62,888,054 89,942,085 96,680,990 111,228,197 118,797,122 124,935,779 136,006,143 143,789,725 152,459,128 Gross Profit 3,089,994 -16,444,751 -20,887,283 -31,340,190 -33,763,445 -36,493,924 -44,394,554 -49,320,858 -55,038,562 Sources: Ministry of Transport, all transport sub-sectoral entities and mission estimates Notes& * Based on 6 months of actual information Average 1096 Exchange'Rate (US$1Dram): 406.2 (Source: IMF) All estimates net of VAT All projections include same investment plans and provisions for depreciation as under the border-opening scenario Table 9.1 c TRANSPORT SECTOR PUBLIC REVENUES and EXPENDITURES -- PEACE IN TRANSCAUCASIA SCENARIO 1995 US$ Actual----------- -------------- Projcted ----- -------------------- ------ 1995 1996* 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 REVENUES Urban Transport (Metro of Yerevan) 2,485,229 2,929,591 5,934,184 9,266,700 10,273,950 10,582,169 11,335,619 12,124,752 12,951,032 Armenian Railways 8,710,487 7,544,671 19,024,455 21,203,735 24,808,369 26,756,286 28,081,359 30,211,669 31,420,136 Armenian Airlines 46,459,872 54,081,300 58,461,981 68,336,886 71,801,417 76,179,352 84,781,380 90,343,910 96,263,156 Zvartnots Airport 8,322,460 8,941,773 11,606,091 13,679,245 15,908,802 17,958,372 19,005,874 20,116,226 21,293,200 Total Revenues 65,978,048 73,497,335 95,026,712 112,486,565 122,792,539 131,476,177 143,204,232 152,796,558 161,927,523 EXPENSES (including depreciation and financial charges) Urban Transport (Metro of Yerevan) 2,575,492 7,082,354 8,021,021 8,278,030 9,232,237 9,660,895 10,153,103 10,723,561 11,383,266 Armenian Railways 8,679,468 18,704,732 20,497,535 19,550,038 21,360,437 21,229,351 22,438,667 23,886,151 25,502,739 Armenian Airlines 46,129,787 51,529,243 54,417,947 66,067,048 68,754,842 71,714,801 78,803,068 82,607,030 86,715,040 Zvartnots Airport 5,503,306 12,625,756 13,983,293 15,753,533 16,224,172 16,594,579 17,301,594 17,948,581 19,038,417 Total Expenses 62,888,054 89,942,085 96,919,796 109,648,650 115,571,688 119,199,625 128,696,432 135,165,324 142,639,462 Gross Profit 3,089,994 -16,444,751 -1,893,084 2,837,916 7,220,851 12,276,552 14,507,800 17,631,234 19,288,062 Sources: Ministry of Transport, all transport sub-sectoral entities and mission estimates * Based on 6 months of actual information Average 1995 Exchange Rate (US$/Dram): 406.2 (Source: IMF) All estimates net of VAT All projections include same investment plans and provisions for depreciation as under the border-opening scenario  IMAGING Report No.: 16625 AM Type: SR