WORLDBANKGROUP Q FEROPE GLI GFDRR ANDCENTRALA5IA (ECA) RI5K PROFILES AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAK(E EARTHQUAK(E GDP $56.8 billion* Be la rus 0.Population 9.2 million* LATVIA elarus' population and econo- a small contribution. Belarus's per my are exposed to earthquakes capita GDP was $6,160. RUSSIAN FEDERATION and floods, with floods posing the greater risk. The model results map displays GDP by province in for present-day risk shown in this Belarus, with greater color saturation LITHUANIA risk profile are based on population indicating greater GDP within a prov- 1 ince. The blue circles indicate the risk Virehsk and gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for 2015. The estimated of experiencing floods and the orange damage caused by historical events is circles the risk of earthquakes in inflated to 2015 US dollars. terms of normalized annual average of affected GDP. The largest circles Just over 75 percent of Belarus's pop- represent the greatest normalized ulation lives in urban environments. risk. The risk is estimated using flood in k The country's GDP was approximate- and earthquake risk models. Minsk ly US$56.8 billion in 2015, with close to 90 percent derived from industry The table displays the provinces at Gro1noMin-k and services, and agriculture making greatest normalized risk for each peril. In relative and absolute terms, the province at greatest risk of both floods and earthquakes is Vitebsk. TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES Brest- EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF PL AD AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) Vitebsk Vitebsk 0 UKRAINE Gomel 2 Grodno 0 Grodno 2 Mogilev 0 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) GDP (billions of $) srest I Minsk City 0 3 There is a high correlation Mogilev I Minsek 0 LOD(r=0.95) between the Minsk 0 Brest 0 1 population and GDP of a Minsk City 0 Gomel 0 3 EARTHQUAKE C KP province. 0 Negligible Bel rusWORLDBANKGROUP DR ROPE AND E|G EENTRAL A51A(ECA) he most damaging flood in If the 10- and 100-year bars are the LAT IA Belarus since it gained its inde- same height, then the impact of a 10- pendence in 1991 occurred in year event is as large as that of a 100- 1993, affecting approximately 40,000 year event, and the annual average of RUSS AN FEDERATI0N people and causing at least $150 affected GDP is dominated by events million in damage. Flooding in 1999 that happen relatively frequently. killed two people, affected more than If the impact of a 100-year event is 2,000, and caused over $5 million in much greater than that of a 10-year damage. event, then less frequent events make a larger contribution to the annual This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP. Thus, even ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GDP Virehsk as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods The annual average population affect- of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in Belarus is about a Minsk City (black). The horizontal line across the 100,000 and the annual average A bars also shows the annual average of affected GDP about $600 million. Ix GDP affected by floods. Within the various provinces, the 10- Grodno and 100-year impacts do not differ Moilev When a flood has a 10-year return much, so relatively frequent floods Minsk period, it means the probability of have large impacts on these averages. occurrence of a flood of that magni- tude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year flood has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of B r time, a flood of that magnitude will, - on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year Affected GOP (%)for flood will occur exactly once every 10 ard 100-year return periods 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a One black = 1% 1 flood of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or 5 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of Annua[ average 1 2 time. 10-year 100-year 0 1 BelrusWORLDBANKGROUP GFR ELROP AND A5IA(ECA) ECENTRAL elarus's worst earthquake affected GDP is dominated by events since 1900 took place in 1908. that happen relatively frequently. LATV IA If the impact of a 100-year event is much greater than that of a 10-year RUSS AN FEDERATION This map depicts the impact of event, then less frequent events make earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, larger contributions to the annual av- represented as percentages of their erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a annual average GDPs affected, with province's annual affected GDP seems greater color saturation indicating small, less frequent and more intense higher percentages. The bar graphs events can still have large impacts. L represent GDP affected by earth- quakes with return periods of 10 The annual average population affect- Vitebsk years (white) and 100 years (black). ed by earthquakes in Belarus is about The horizontal line across the bars 100 and the annual average affected also shows the annual average of GDP GDP about $800,000. The annual av- affected by earthquakes. erages of fatalities and capital losses caused by earthquakes are less than & When an earthquake has a 10-year one and about $400,000, respective- return period, it means the probabil- ly. The fatalities and capital losses Minsk ity of occurrence of an earthquake caused by more intense, less frequent of that magnitude or greater is 10 events can be substantially larger Grodno percent per year. A 100-year earth- than the annual averages. For exam- Moqilev quake has a probability of occurrence pie, an earthquake with a 0.4 percent of 1 percent per year. This means annual probability of occurrence (a that over a long period of time, an 250-year return period event) could earthquake of that magnitude will, on cause about $20 million in capital average, occur once every 100 years. loss (less than 1 percent of GDP). It does not mean a 100-year earth- quake will occur exactly once every Brest Gomel 100 years. In fact, it is possible for an earthquake of any return period to occur more than once in the same I L N J year, or to appear in consecutive E years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time. GDP (%) not affected for 10 and Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) If the 10- and 100-year bars are the 100-year return periods same height, then the impact of a 10- Annual average = 0 year event is as large as that of a 100- year event, and the annual average of a / / S C