84058 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report April 2010 SRF Administration Unit Development Economics Data Group The World Bank Driving Development Results: Strengthening Evidence-Based Decision Making in Developing Countries Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report April 2010 The World Bank Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report April 2010 5 Foreword Better statistics for better results has been a rallying cry among de- velopment partners in the area of statistical development over the past few years. The promotion of national strategies for the devel- opment of statistics under the Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics in 2004 has been a major step towards this objective. The initiative has helped to make national statistical systems more responsive to policy needs and more consistent with national resources and ca- pacity. Improved collaboration among development partners has also been strongly encouraged, with the aim of contributing to more efficient statistical systems and improving the effectiveness of exter- nal resources. The Statistics for Results Facility (SRF), set up in 2009, has em- braced these objectives by emphasizing a comprehensive system- wide approach to strengthening national statistical systems, includ- ing the incorporation of the needs of planning and sectoral agencies, with the aim to generate and promote the use of quality statistics. To this end, the SRF advocates for better national statistical strate- gies and for national partnership groups composed of government and development partners. In recognition of the need to increase investments in statistical development, the SRF Catalytic Fund (SRF- CF) was established to help developing countries implement their national statistical strategies and to serve as a catalyst for additional resources from other sources. The SRF-CF is a multi-donor Trust Fund, administered by the World Bank. The SRF-CF has begun its pilot phase in five countries: Afghani- stan, DRC, Ghana, Nigeria, and Rwanda. The 2010 SRF Annual Re- port presents the progress of the pilot phase of the SRF-CF, as well as a summary of major events leading up to the creation of the SRF. We hope that the report is informative and useful and that it encour- ages countries and development partners to work together towards a system-wide approach to the development of statistics. Jeffrey S. Gutman Chair, Statistics for Results Facility Council Vice President and Head of Network Operations Policy and Country Services The World Bank Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report AfDB African Development Bank CIDA Canadian International Development Agency DFID Department for International Development Acronyms DRC The Democratic Republic of the Congo EU European Union GDDS General Data Dissemination System GDP Gross Domestic Product GSS Ghana Statistics Service HIV/AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IDA International Development Association ILO International Labor Organization JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency MAPS Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics MDA Ministries, Departments, Agencies MDG Millennium Development Goals M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MfDR Managing for Development Results NBS Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics NISR National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda NSDS National Strategy for Statistical Development PARIS21 Partnership in Statistics for Development in the 21st Century PRESS Partner Report on Support to Statistics SRF Statistics for Results Facility SRF-CF Statistics for Results Facility-Catalytic Fund TTL Task Team Leader UNDP United Nations Development Program UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFPA United Nations Fund for Population Activities UNICEF United Nations Children Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development WB World Bank 1 April 2010 7 Managing for Results The Statistics for Results Facility (SRF) is a multi-donor initiative designed to increase the level of investment in statistical systems in developing countries and to improve the effectiveness of financial and technical assistance. The objective of the SRF, and of the Cata- lytic Fund (SRF-CF) that supports capacity building in the poorest countries, is to support better policy formulation and decision mak- ing through a sustained improvement in the production, availability and use of official statistics. This report is the first annual report issued by the SRF, which be- gan operations in 2009. It summarizes the genesis and objectives of the Facility and the Catalytic Fund, describes the five pilot projects currently underway, and discusses briefly the SRF-CF beyond the pilot phase. Statistics and results – the need for better data The SRF is part of a long-term process to improve the effectiveness of development aid and a key part of Managing for Development Results (MfDR). Improving the ability of countries, agencies, and institutions to manage for results is central to the international community’s aim to support country outcomes such as the Millen- nium Development Goals (MDGs). From the beginning the MfDR process – often termed the “results agenda” – has emphasized the importance of better statistical data for highlighting issues, mak- ing policy choices, allocating resources, monitoring outcomes and evaluating impact. The process began with the International Conference on Financ- ing for Development, held in Monterrey, Mexico in 2002, which gave impetus to a new partnership between developing and developed countries. It called for developing countries to strengthen their com- mitment to policies and actions that reduce poverty and stimulate eco- nomic growth, and for developed countries to provide more relevant and effective support through improved trade policies and increased levels of aid. Through a series of subsequent international meetings, agreement has been reached on the importance of increasing the ef- fectiveness of aid and on the concrete actions that are needed if the vision of the Millennium Declaration is to be achieved by 2015. 8 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report The Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness, endorsed on March 2, 2005 by more than 100 ministers, heads of agencies and other senior officials, commits countries and  development organizations to harmonize, align, and manage their aid programs to achieve mea- surable results using a set of measurable actions and indicators of progress. The Accra Agenda for Action adopted on September 4, 2008 at the Third High-Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness, reiterates the international commitment to accelerate the effective use of de- velopment assistance and to ensure the achievement of the MDGs by 2015. Key aspects of the agenda include: ÔÔ Ownership with developing countries exercising leadership over their development strategies and actively coordinating de- velopment actions. ÔÔ Alignment with donors basing their support on developing countries’ national development strategies, institutions and procedures. ÔÔ Harmonization with donor actions becoming more transparent and collectively effective. ÔÔ Untying with donors elaborating individual plans to further un- tie their aid. ÔÔ Managing for results with resources and decision making gen- erating measurable results. The results agenda presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the development and use of statistics in developing countries. The principles of the Paris Declaration and the Accra Agenda for Ac- tion require much greater use of national statistics and this increased demand for statistics presents a major opportunity for the managers and staff of statistical agencies in developing countries. At the same time, though, these agencies face the challenge of building the ca- pacity to meet this new demand and to do so in a way that is itself in line with the Paris Declaration and the Accra Agenda for Action. The SRF is building on substantial progress that has been achieved since 2004, when delegates to the Second International Roundtable on MfDR set forth the Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics. Known as MAPS, this plan identified six key actions to help develop and strengthen both national statistical systems and international coor- dination. An important development was the recognition that long- term and sustained improvements in national statistical systems could be achieved only if countries themselves took the lead in setting priorities and in managing change. A major focus of MAPS, therefore, was an effort to help countries prepare National Strate- gies for the Development of Statistics (NSDS). The SRF is specifically designed to support the implementation of NSDSs, recognizing that the challenge now, in 2010, is to move from the preparation of plans to their implementation. April 2010 9 Improving the evidence base As a result of MAPS, many developing countries have prepared na- tional strategies for the development of their statistical systems and have begun to put these into effect. Their experiences point to a number of important lessons that have been built into the design of the SRF and into the operations of the Catalytic Fund. In particular the SRF approach emphasizes: ÔÔ The importance of looking at the whole of the national sta- tistical system, including the main data producers outside the central statistical agency and those government organizations generating statistics derived from administrative data ÔÔ The need for a comprehensive approach that deals with out- standing institutional and management issues, that emphasizes the importance of effective coordination issues, and that ad- dresses technical problems ÔÔ The importance of a national partnership involving govern- ment, donors and all the main data users, including those from outside government ÔÔ The need for a strategic approach that sets goals, identifies priorities and specifies what needs to be done by whom and by when The SRF supports developing countries in their efforts to focus on the outputs that will be produced through investment in capac- ity, that is, the production of better statistics and their use. The Fa- cility emphasizes improving the evidence base for decision making and supporting the greater availability and use of official statistics. In line with the results agenda, the SRF encourages countries to define firm targets for improvements in statistics and to measure and moni- tor the extent to which these targets are being met. Moving from strategies to implementation Since 2004 substantial progress has been made with countries pre- paring and implementing national strategies for the development Table 1: The status of the NSDS process in low income countries – February 2010 Countries Countries Countries Countries implementing designing planning new without Total strategy strategy NSDS strategy Africa 19 18 3 0 40 Asia and the 12 5 10 0 27 Pacific Latin America and 2 3 2 2 9 the Caribbean Europe 2 1 0 0 3 Total 35 27 15 2 79 Source: PARIS21 10 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report of statistics. Information collated by PARIS211 and reproduced in table 1 indicates, that of 79 low-income countries eligible to receive financial assistance from the International Development Association (IDA), all but two countries had a strategy in place, were in the process of designing one, or were making plans for a new one. In lower-middle income countries only 4 of 39 countries did not have a strategy in place and were not yet planning to prepare one. In practice the NSDS process has proved to be remarkably ro- bust, being successfully applied in countries with well-established statistical systems and clear needs as well as those with only very limited capacity. In all parts of the world, but especially in Africa, where to a large extent the needs are greatest, many countries have been able to prepare a strategy and nearly half are currently putting them into effect. As highlighted at the third International Roundtable on Managing for Development Results that took place in Hanoi in 2007, as well as at Accra in 2008, more needs to be done to help countries put their strategies into effect. Recent research conducted by the World Bank as well as PAR- IS21 and the International Monetary Fund indicates that a lack of resources is certainly a major factor limiting implementation. Com- pared with good practice as defined by PARIS21, not all NSDSs are complete or realistic and more needs to be done to help countries prepare realistic implementation plans that take constraints into ac- count and that are properly budgeted. One important concern is to make sure that NSDSs are much more closely integrated into national planning and policy documents, especially poverty reduc- tion strategies, and that they are properly coordinated with budget planning and management processes. The challenge for the road to 2015 MAPS identified two key target dates: 2010 as the point by which countries should have prepared strategies for the development of their statistical systems and should have improved the availability of key indicators; and 2015 when capacity needs to be in place to monitor progress towards the MDGs. The experience of recent years has emphasized that building sustainable capacity takes time. At the same time significant gaps in data coverage remain for many areas of development and for a number of the MDG indicators. Clearly, therefore, the SRF and other initiatives helping to improve statistics still have many challenges to meet over the next five years. Sustaining improvements in statistics will require that the de- mand for statistics within developing countries be strengthened and increased. Plans for the improvement of statistics that are based on and closely linked with existing and future national strategies and other planning documents will help stimulate this increased demand. Statistical systems will need to be seen as responsive 1. PARIS21, “National Strategies for the Development of Statistics: Progress Report, February 2010” Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris April 2010 11 to demand, able to develop new systems and even to anticipate emerging data needs. At the same time, more attention will need to be given to the ways in which statistical data are disseminated and made available to users. Statistical operations need to be made more efficient by making more use of data that have already been collected but not fully processed or analyzed and by finding new ways of disseminating data that avoid long delays between data collection and publication. In this respect, countries that are par- ticipating in the SRF will be encouraged to make use of tools and support provided by the Accelerated Data Program which is being implemented by PARIS21. Ensuring that investments in capacity generate a long-term return and that improvements in data quality and coverage can be sus- tained is also a major challenge for the immediate future. Here it will be important to ensure that implementation plans and investment programs supported by the SRF are realistic and that enhanced lev- els of staffing and new infrastructure and equipment can be properly maintained and kept productive. Continuing training and education of the people working in statistical agencies – the most important resource of any statistical system – are important components of a sustainable program, one that is likely to require investment and support for both national and regional training capacity. 12 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report 2 April 2010 13 SRF as a New Approach The SRF is a new approach to the problem of how best to meet the data challenges of the next five to ten years. It is based directly on the Paris Declaration principles for aid effectiveness. Informed by experience gleaned from earlier initiatives, the Facility places developing countries at the center of the process and incorporates good practice from other fields in the design and implementation of capacity building programs. Scaling up investment in statistical systems While countries have not yet been able to mobilize the resources needed to implement NSDSs for any number of reasons, a key re- quirement is new finance. For many low-income countries new fi- nance inevitably means donor finance because countries are unable to allocate either the recurrent or development resources needed from their national budgets. Official statistics are a typical public good and their production and dissemination is therefore gener- ally financed from tax revenue. Low-income countries, even those where the importance of statistics is recognized and acknowledged, still find it difficult to increase budget allocations sufficiently to meet capacity building needs. Information on donor support to statistics is compiled and pub- lished by PARIS21, through the Partner Report on Support to Sta- tistics (PRESS). The 2009 Report indicated disbursements of about $785 million for the period 2007 to 2009, compared with about $550 million reported in the 2008 Report that covered the period 2006 to 2008.2 This does not necessarily represent a real increase in investment in statistics, however, because of changes in coverage between the two reports and differences in the way aid agencies report the data. Even if the level of aid for statistics is really increasing, many countries are likely to face a financing gap if they try to implement plans set out in their NSDSs. Some analysis by the World Bank, based on financing requirements set out in NSDS documents, sug- gests that the gap for the period from 2011 to 2015 is on the order of $1.3 billion with an additional $100 million needed to address the specific problems of countries under stress and to strengthen train- ing capacity. The SRF and especially the Catalytic Fund have been established specifically to help fill this gap, by providing additional 2. All dollars in this report refer to US dollars. 14 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report grant resources for direct investment in capacity, but also by helping to catalyze additional resources from other agencies. Improving the effectiveness of aid for statistics As well as providing an increase in the financial resources for invest- ment in statistics, the SRF-CF also promotes and supports efforts to improve the effectiveness of this aid, specifically by applying the principles of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness to statistical projects and programs. The SRF will: ÔÔ Ensure that developing countries exercise effective ownership and leadership in developing their national statistical systems and that donors respect this leadership ÔÔ Promote the alignment of donor support for statistics in the context of an effective strategic framework and work program for national statistical development (NSDSs or similar) ÔÔ Harmonize donor support through well-planned and well-co- ordinated projects and programs ÔÔ Ensure that developing countries manage for results not only by generating better statistical data and indicators but also by ensuring that these outputs are used to support evidence-based decision making ÔÔ Promote mutual accountability by monitoring the implementa- tion and outcomes of NSDSs within a framework of mutual accountability, recognizing that developing a sustainable statis- tical system may take a long time. As part of this process, all partners need to agree on the indicators and targets that will be used to monitor the delivery of inputs, the production of outputs, the achievement of wider outcomes and the impact of better statistics and a more effective statistical system. Agreement is also needed on the targets that are to be achieved and what action needs to be taken when implementation is not on track. Promoting a system-wide approach The SRF emphasizes a comprehensive system-wide approach to strengthening national statistical systems. This approach draws heavily on lessons learned from the sector-wide approaches used successfully in areas such as health, education and agriculture. In particular it stresses the provision of support to a locally owned and led program to develop the national statistical system in a com- prehensive and coordinated way, using country systems and pro- cedures for implementation. The process of preparing a statistical strategy covering the whole national statistical system, or at least its most important parts, provides a framework within which the system-wide approach can deliver coordinated and harmonized fi- nancial and technical assistance. A system-wide approach focuses on strategic issues and coordination, promotes dialogue across the national statistical system and the involvement of line ministries, April 2010 15 allows more scope for country leadership and ownership, helps to harmonize approaches and align donor support with country poli- cies and provides for the more effective scaling up of support while optimizing capacity building. The requirements for developing a system-wide approach at the country level for SRF funding include: ÔÔ A well-prepared statistical strategy (NSDS) in place or being developed, with high-level political endorsement ÔÔ A formal request to the SRF-CF from the government seeking support for the implementation of the NSDS and proposing the use of a system-wide approach ÔÔ Identification of resource requirements for statistics in govern- ment budgetary allocations and national resource frameworks, such as medium-term expenditure frameworks where they exist ÔÔ Initiation of a dialogue with local donor representatives ÔÔ Agreement to the approach by all donors (or at least a core set) with an interest in supporting statistics, where appropri- ate, identification of a lead donor to assist in coordinating the dialogue with government ÔÔ Identification of existing initiatives in statistics and a clear un- derstanding of how these support the implementation of the NSDS. For these elements to be in place, capacity will be needed both in participating countries and within the development partners. Essen- tial components for participating countries include leadership and the political will to improve statistics. Effective financial manage- ment capacity and sufficient institutional and professional exper- tise is also needed. In many countries technical assistance may be needed in some or all of these areas. Statistical agencies, especially the central organization, will have to have the capacity to lead the reform and process while, at the same time, being able to maintain their regular work programs. Strengthening coordination at all levels The system-wide approach requires formal, government-led mecha- nisms for dialogue and coordination across the national statistical system, with users or potential users of statistics and with other stakeholders. Where such mechanisms do not exist or are weak, the processes for developing a system-wide approach should help to build or reinforce them. The development of a national partnership for statistics to address all three of these areas is a central part of the SRF approach. To support the national partnership, the SRF also recommends that one donor agency with experience in the country and an in- terest in statistics be identified as lead. The lead donor will be the focal point for liaising with national authorities, will take the lead in promoting coordination, and will convene donor consultation 16 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report processes where required. In most cases a lead donor statistician will also be put in place either from within the existing donor com- munity or through a new appointment. Supporting statistical development in fragile states The SRF is designed to be flexible and to provide support in fragile states, where there may be little or no capacity in place at the start of the process. These may be states emerging from conflict and af- fected by economic decline. The needs of very small states, where governments face significant diseconomies of scale in setting up and financing statistical systems will require special consideration. Countries emerging from conflict are likely to have little or no capacity to prepare a national strategy or even to carry out basic statistical activities. Substantial and extended technical and financial assistance is needed to put basic capacity in place and to carry out initial statistical programs. Priorities are likely to include a baseline population count or census and the compilation of basic economic and social statistics. Because the process of building institutional and human resource capacity will take some time, this kind of direct assistance may be needed for several years. In the medium term, though, the aim will be to prepare an NSDS and to move toward a program-based approach to finance further capacity-building. 3 April 2010 17 The Pilot Phase The SRF Catalytic Fund has been set up initially to provide financial and technical support to a limited number of pilot countries. The experi- ence from these countries will be used to identify how best to scale-up investments in statistical capacity and to help these countries improve their development results. Once the results from the pilot countries have been evaluated, the Catalytic Fund will consider inviting other countries to apply to the SRF-CF. In the meantime other countries will be encour- aged to make investments in their statistical systems in line with the SRF principles. The pilot countries The SRF-CF Council is responsible for determining which countries can apply for grants from the SRF-CF or can receive technical assistance.3 Selection is based on a number of criteria, including current levels of sta- tistical capacity and the extent of the commitment to the SRF principles. For the pilot phase, in line with the SRF Charter, the Council identified five countries that were invited to submit applications for assistance. The five countries are Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ghana, Nigeria, and Rwanda. These countries are all IDA eligible and represent a mixture of different levels of statistical development, differ- ent types of statistical system and Table 2: Statistical Capacity Indicators for SRF-CF Pilot Countries, September 2009 different problems and concerns. All Indicator Afghanistan DRC Ghana Nigeria Rwanda Countries Two of the countries – Afghani- Overall 33 29 59 57 66 65 stan and DRC – have been includ- ed because they are fragile states Methodology 30 20 40 40 60 56 emerging from conflict and present Source data 20 20 50 60 60 63 particular problems relating to the Periodicity & development of statistics. 48 47 87 72 77 77 timeliness Table 2 provides information Population n.a. 62 23 148 10 on the statistical capacity of the (2007 millions) five pilot countries as measured GNI per capita n.a. 140 590 920 320 by the World Bank’s Bulletin (2007 US$) Board on Statistical Capacity, as of These are composite indicators based on statistics quality indicators (annex 1). All countries refer to low and middle-income IDA/IBRD countries with population of over one million. September 2009, as well as other n.a. = not available background data. More detailed 3. The SRF Council is composed of a representative from each contributing donor to the SRF-CF; the developing country co-chair of PARIS21 or designated alternate; and the World Bank’s Vice President of Operations and Country Services or designated alternate. 18 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report information on the statistical Table 3: SRF-CF Pilot Phase Grant Allocations capacity of the five countries Amount Amount is provided in annex 1. Date submitted to SRF Date requested allocated Administration Unit approved (US$) (US$) In November 2009, an in- Afghanistan Feb 1, 2010 14,062,000 Feb 18, 2010 14,000,000 formal meeting of SRF donors agreed that the size of SRF-CF DRC To be submitted Not available grants should be flexible and Ghana Dec 23, 2009 10,000,000 Feb 3, 2010 10,000,000 respond to country needs. A Nigeria Dec 22, 2009 20,728,654 Feb 3, 1010 10,000,000 range of $5-10 million was considered realistic, although Rwanda Feb 4, 2010 9,994,000 Feb 18, 2010 10,000,000 it was agreed that the top of this range would not be an absolute limit. Ghana and Nigeria submitted their SRF application in December 2009; Afghanistan and Rwanda, in February 2010. The DRC is in the process of developing its proposal. Table 3 provides information on the timing of the proposals and their amounts. Afghanistan The main focus of the Afghanistan National Table 4: Afghanistan – NSP Funding Statistical Plan 2010-14 (NSP), finalized in Amount Sources of Funding January 2010, is to rebuild the fragile na- (US$ million) tional statistical system that has been largely Total NSP cost 31.1 destroyed by many years of war and inter- Sources of funding 31.1 nal conflict. Its relatively-low cost of $31.1 Government 11.3 million reflects this situation, with limited European Union 5.8 capacity to absorb and invest in the short to medium term. The administrative costs SRF-CF grant 14.0 of the Central Statistical Office (CSO) will be funded from the govern- ment’s own budgetary resources ($11.3 million). Another $5.8 million is expected from the European Union, and the remaining balance of $14.0 million will be financed by the SRF-CF grant (table 4). Given the weak statistical capacity and the shortage of qualified experts in most fields of statistics, about half of the proposed SRF grant will finance international technical assistance. Following are the priority areas of the SRF grant in Afghanistan. ÔÔ Institutional development and capacity building. This component covers organizational development (seminars, on-the-job training, etc.); training, including scholarships for higher-level studies; statis- tical infrastructure development, such as development of a master sample framework; updating of registers of establishments; and dissemination (adding notes to statistical yearbook, improving the website). ÔÔ Data collection and analysis. A number of household surveys will be partially funded, along with establishment surveys and analyti- cal studies and the compilation of national accounts. ÔÔ Administrative data systems. This component includes improved production of administrative data (such as establishment registers, birth and death registration). April 2010 19 ÔÔ Information and communication technology. Computer equipment and software will be replaced or purchased and internet facilities provided in the CSO and provincial offices, as needed. ÔÔ Physical infrastructure. A statistical training center and a library will be constructed, among other facilities. In considering the application for Afghanistan, the Council noted the high quality of the documentation provided with the application and commented on the rigorous prioritization of activities to be funded. Al- though the requested $14 million exceeded the proposed upper limit of the allocation, the Council agreed to the full request because of the expected high costs resulting from the security situation. Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) The SRF Charter advocates support to countries emerging from conflict where there is limited capacity to develop a national statistical strategy. This is the case of the DRC, which is in the process of designing a NSDS. The government is preparing an application for the SRF-CF that will fo- cus on emergency and reconstruction efforts to strengthen the National Statistical Institute (INS) and the national statistical system. It is expected that support will be requested in four areas: the population census, focusing on institutional aspects rather than on the financing of goods, in cooperation with the United Nations Fund for Population Activities; reconstruction efforts to be funded by the African Development Bank (AfDB); training, mainly re-launching the statistical school with the assis- tance of West African statistical institutes to revamp the training program and conduct training courses; and financial management support, which would include an audit of the statistical system, training, and improved financial management of government and donor funds by the INS. Ghana Ghana’s national statistical system has an Table 5: Ghana – SDP Funding overall capacity score that is just below the Amount Sources of Funding average for all developing countries. It has (US$ million) some important strengths but also displays Total SDP cost 157.3 a number of weaknesses, which are to be Sources of funding 103.9 addressed through Ghana’s Statistical De- Government 43.1 velopment Plan (GSDP) 2009-13. The plan, European Union 2.6 launched in November 2008, estimates the financing requirements at $157.3 million, UK (DFID) 4.6 of which $43.1 million is expected to be African Development 0.4 Bank funded from the government budget. Ex- UN system (UNDP, 12.5 ternal funding for the implementation of UNICEF, UNFPA) the GSDP is expected to total $60.7 mil- Denmark (DANIDA) 0.6 lion, leaving a financing gap of $53.4 mil- World Bank (proposed 30.0 IDA credit) lion (see table 5). A planned IDA credit of SRF-CF 10.0 $30 million and a proposed SRF-CF grant of $10 million are being prepared and ap- Net Financing Gap 53.4 20 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report praised together to ensure greater coherence and coordination of activi- ties. The SRF-CF grant is expected to finance the following priority areas of the GSDP: ÔÔ Policies, regulations and institutional framework. Activities include rationalization of staff and a comprehensive training program for the Ghana Statistics Service (GSS), for ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) and for metropolitan, municipal and district as- semblies. ÔÔ Statistical infrastructure. Priorities are the development of a manual on standard definitions, concepts and methodologies for conduct- ing statistical research and data collection; updating of the master national sampling frame; the compilation of the national business register; and strengthening of the Geographical Information Sys- tems. ÔÔ Data development and management. This is the largest component and includes census and survey programs, improvement of na- tional accounts, review of a framework for price statistics, capacity strengthening of MDAs to generate quality statistics from admin- istrative sources, development of an administrative data release schedule, and formulation of a dissemination strategy. ÔÔ Investment in physical infrastructure and equipment. Activities in- clude improved offices for the GSS and other MDA, strengthened information and communication infrastructure, and development of a databank for MDA and regional statistical offices linked to the central databank of the GSS. For Ghana, the Council commented on the evidence of strong commit- ment to the SRF principles from both the government and the national partnership and approved the requested allocation of $10 million. Nigeria Nigeria is the most populous state in Africa Table 6: Nigeria – NSDS Funding and, with a federal constitution, has a com- Amount Sources of Funding plex statistical system with separate but (US$ million) necessarily linked activities at federal, state Total NSDS cost 431.9 and local government levels. The country Sources of funding 420.5 has gone through a significant process of Government 281.5 reform and capacity building over the past World Bank (proposed 110.0 IDA credit) few years, with financial and technical as- Other (DFID, UNDP, 19.0 sistance from the World Bank, the Europe- AfDB, UNICEF) an Union and other donors. Under recent Proposed SRF grant 10.0 legislation the Nigerian National Bureau of Net financing gap 11.4 Statistics (NBS) has been established as a semi-autonomous agency and its headquarters has been moved from Lagos to Abuja. Further reforms and capacity building are required, however, at both the federal and state levels. The National Strategy for Statistical Development (NSDS) 2010-15 covers the activities of the NBS, the state statistical agencies and ministries, departments, and agencies in key sectors. One concern, however, has been that the National Population Commission, which is April 2010 21 responsible for demographic statistics and the population census, has elaborated its own program and priorities, which have not yet been incorporated into the NSDS. The federal government is in the process of revising the NSDS to include the activities of the Commission. In ad- dition, the federal government will develop an implementation plan for the enhanced NSDS and evaluate the quality of individual state plans to ensure that the plan for the development of the national statistical system is realistic, is budgeted properly, reflects the activities of all the main agencies, and is aligned with the country’s development strategy. Because of both Nigeria’s size and its federal structure, coordination among numerous producers and users of statistics at national, state, and zonal levels, including harmonization of standards and methodology, poses serious challenges to statistical development. This complexity is reflected in Nigeria’s NSDS, which estimates that the financing require- ment for the period from 2010 to 2015 is $431.9 million, nearly two- thirds of which will be financed from government resources (table 6). The remaining third is expected to be funded by an IDA credit of $110 million, the proposed SRF grant allocation of $10 million, and a smaller amount from a variety of partners. Nigeria requested a $20.8 million grant from the SRF-CF, which would have closed the financing gap in NSDS funding. Given the work still required to finalize the enhanced NSDS, however, the SRF Council had concerns about the project’s readi- ness for implementation, and decided to allocate $10 million on a pro- visional basis. A final allocation decision was postponed until details of the proposed program have been developed during project appraisal. The priority areas identified in the Nigeria SRF-CF application include the following. ÔÔ Organizational and institutional development. This component in- cludes the development of a national framework for data manage- ment and development, establishing guidelines for overall coor- dination of responsibilities, strengthening the capacity of the NBS and the National Population Commission and reforming statistical systems at the state level. Expected activities include strengthening the Statistics Training Institute; hands-on training for statisticians at the state level of the NBS; and a comprehensive training needs assessment. ÔÔ Statistical infrastructure and information technology. Concepts and methods for data collection and compilation will be standardized; a statistical template for the compilation of administrative statistics at state level will be rolled out; a basic legal framework at state level will be put in place; and physical infrastructure and equipment, particularly in states will be installed. ÔÔ Data development, management and surveys. This is the larg- est component, focusing on generation of quality statistics from administrative sources on an agreed advance release schedule; development of a dissemination strategy at all lev- els; strengthening of the information and communication infra- structure, as necessary, throughout the national statistical sys- 22 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report tem; and adoption of direct electronic data capture of birth, death, and migration data from existing registration centers. Rwanda Considerable progress has been made Table 7: Rwanda – NSDS Funding in re-establishing Rwanda’s nation- Amount Sources of Funding al statistical system and in building (US$ million) capacity. In 2008, the World Bank Cost of NSDS (priority 1) 60.6 ranked Rwanda as having the sev- Sources of funding 32.3 enth best statistical system, in terms DFID 8.6 of capacity, in Sub-Saharan Africa. A EC 3.3 number of reforms have been carried UNDP 6.4 out, including the formation of the Na- USAID 4.3 tional Institute of Statistics of Rwanda SRF grant 10.0 (NISR) as a semi-autonomous agency, Net financing gap 28.3 but several capacity constraints re- main and further investments are needed, especially to strengthen data quality in sector ministries. Rwanda’s National Strategy for Sta- tistical Development for 2009-2014 has been finalized and formal approval by Cabinet is expected by the end of March 2010. The estimated cost of the reforms and investments proposed in the strat- egy is $80.6 million, of which $60.6 million is needed for the highest priority activities. As of February 2010, the government expected an amount of $22.3 million from donor contributions, plus $10 million from the SRF-CF grant, leaving a financing gap of about $28 million. The government plans to mobilize additional financing once the NSDS is approved, either from other donors or from its own budget- ary resources. The government contribution will focus initially on the population census scheduled for 2012. The government recom- mends that SRF funding be channeled through a Statistics Basket Fund, managed by NISR. This mechanism is similar to one being put in place to support public financial management reforms. Table 7 presents the sources of funding for the NSDS, reflecting only those activities with the highest priority. The priority areas and expected results of the SRF-CF grant are as follows: ÔÔ Improved statistical practice. The objective is to meet interna- tional standards, methods, and data-reporting practices in mac- roeconomic and social statistics by 2012. The expected results are that the national statistical system be aligned to the General Data Dissemination System,4 that classifications and concepts be adopted and that data production be in compliance with international standards. ÔÔ Improved data collection: The aim is to increase Rwanda’s ca- pacity to collect relevant data at appropriate intervals. This is the largest component of the grant, and its expected outputs 4. The General Data Dissemination System is a framework to improve statistics in developing countries by addressing quality of data, development plans for statistical systems, and dissemination of data. April 2010 23 include agricultural statistics produced annually by 2012; data from a household income and expenditure survey are collect- ed, analyzed and disseminated by 2012; and the cartography for the population census is developed by 2011. ÔÔ Improved data availability: The expected results include the alignment of the NISR website with international best prac- tices by 2012; preservation, documentation and dissemination of survey and census micro-data using the Microdata Toolkit by 2013; and improved dissemination of statistics publications, such as the Rwanda Statistical Yearbook, MDG reports, and District Statistics Reports. ÔÔ Strengthened institutional capacity. To generate and use better data for decision making, the NISR expects to arrange a twin- ning partnership with an experienced statistical organization, to strengthen capacity building and coordination with district statisticians, and to develop a scholarship program to promote training in statistics either in country or abroad. Because it felt that Rwanda’s application addressed the priority is- sues and that there is high-level commitment to the improvement of the national statistical system, the Council allocated the requested amount of $10 million. Building national partnerships The SRF approach relies on gov- ernment and partners working Box 1: Ghana’s M&E Theme Group together to provide coordinated Ghana’s Monitoring and Evaluation Theme Group was support to implement nation- convened in March 2009 to provide a forum for dialogue al statistical strategies. In this between the representatives of ministries, departments vein, the SRF Charter promotes and agencies (MDAs) and development partners engaged the creation or strengthening in monitoring and evaluation and statistics. This forum, of national partnership groups together with a sub-committee on statistics, provides the in statistics, composed of rep- national partnership for support to statistics through the resentatives of key policy and implementation of the Ghana Statistical Development Plan. sector ministries, development One of the Group’s achievements is that statistics and M&E partners supporting statistical are well-represented in the targets for the Multi-Donor Bud- systems, and other stakeholders get Support Performance Assessment Framework, agreed from academia and civil society. by the government and development partners. Ideally, the national partnership The Group is trying to expand its membership, which, group is co-chaired by a lead to date, has been limited mainly to the National Develop- government agency, preferably ment Planning Commission, the Ghana Statistical Service, a key policy body, and a lead development partners and MDA. To this end, it was re- donor with appropriate skills, launched in March 2010 to encourage wider participation experience, and time. The SRF from across MDA and civil society. The Group is also trying Charter also calls for an in- to improve its work across different sector working groups, country donor statistician to be in recognition that M&E and statistics are cross-cutting is- identified to assist the partner- sues. ship group in technical matters. 24 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report All five pilot countries have put in place a national partnership in statistics. In Afghanistan and Rwanda, national partnership groups were set up in 2009 to support and oversee the development and implementation of the national statistical strategies. Both are chaired by the head of the national statistical office and composed of key ministries and partners. In Ghana the partnership group is a sub- group of the larger Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Theme Group for the country’s Poverty Reduction Strategy and is composed of both government and development partners (box 1). Nigeria’s M&E Theme Group is a forum for development partners only. In the DRC the recently-formed Thematic Group on Statistics is composed of development partners, to be chaired by the African Development Bank. As required by the SRF Charter, the partnership groups en- dorsed the applications of the four pilot countries that have received an SRF allocation. Details of the national partnerships in statistics in each pilot country are presented in table 8. Table 8: SRF-CF Pilot Countries – National Partnership Groups Country Name of Group Lead Donor Lead Govt. agency Other members Observations Afghanistan Task Force on European Central Statistics Ministries: Finance, Economy, TORs of Task Force Statistics (2009) Commission Organization (CSO) Labor/ Social Affairs, Health, available Education, Rural Rehabilita- tion and Development, Women In-country statistician Affairs, provided by DFID DFID, World Bank, Japan, USAID, UNDP, UNFPA, UNICEF, Asian Meets at least Development Bank quarterly Congo, Dem. Thematic Group AfDB National Statistical Group at early stages Rep. on Statistics Office Ghana Sub-committee World Bank Ghana Statistical WB, DFID, EU, Netherlands, Linked to M&E of on statistics of Service (GSS) UNICEF, UNFPA, USAID, CIDA, Poverty Reduction National M&E Switzerland Strategy Theme Group (March 2009) In-country statistician provided by DFID Meets at least every quarter Nigeria M&E Theme World Bank National Bureau of AfDB, DFID, EU, ILO, Nether- Only development Group (August Statistics (NBS) lands, UNICEF, UNFPA, UNDP, partners 2009) USAID Recruitment of in- country statistician underway Meets monthly Rwanda National Partner- DFID National Institute Ministries: Finance/Economic NPG will merge with ship Group (Oct. of Statistics of Planning, Agriculture/Animal existing Steer- 2009) Rwanda (NISR) Resources, Health, Infrastructure; ing Committee on National Bank of Rwanda Statistics DFID, UNDP, EU, WB, Nether- lands, JICA, AfDB Recruitment of in- National University of Rwanda, country statistician Institute of Policy Analysis and under way Research, Rwanda Development Board Meets quarterly 4 April 2010 25 Progress of the Pilot Projects As of the end of March 2010, the five pilot countries were at differ- ent levels of preparation with progress influenced by a number of factors, especially the political and economic situation, the level of statistical capacity, the complexity of the national statistical system, and staff availability. In addition, because the SRF is a new initiative, the learning curve requires extra time for the pilot countries, SRF contributors, and the World Bank to understand and adapt to a new approach and procedures and to work in partnerships. Project preparation To assist in the preparation of grant applications and in accessing SRF-CF resources, the SRF Administration Unit has prepared Guide- lines and Procedures for both participating countries and World Bank Task Team Leaders. In addition, a Guide on Partnership Groups is also available to assist countries in forming or strengthening national partnership groups for statistical development. 5 As agreed in the SRF Charter, project preparation (concept note, pre-appraisal, appraisal, negotiations, and approval) of SRF-CF grant-funded projects is carried out by a World Bank project team, headed by a task team leader (TTL), following the Bank’s regional guidelines. Project preparation has begun in Ghana and Nigeria, while in Afghanistan and Rwanda project preparatory activities are being planned with support from the in-country donor statistician, the SRF Administration Unit, or both. The DRC expects to submit its SRF application by mid-April 2010 and to begin project preparation immediately after Council approval of the grant allocation. The anticipated progress with the five projects is set out in more detail below. 5. The Administration Unit is developing a SRF website, where these documents and other country-specific documentation can be accessed (http://go.worldbank.org/M2FV8LH9X0) 26 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report Afghanistan For Afghanistan, there will be an interim task team leader from the SRF Administration Unit, with a co-TTL from the country team, until a permanent TTL is appointed. An in-country donor statisti- cian, funded by the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development, is in post in Kabul. Currently, the concept review meeting is envisaged for the end of March 2010, followed by a pre- appraisal mission in April 2010, which will define the next steps in project preparation. Ghana As outlined above, the SRF grant and Table 9: Ghana Statistical Development the IDA credit for Ghana will be pre- Program Project Timetable pared together following World Bank Action Date project procedures. Although this is Concept review April 2010 the most efficient use of resources, meeting more time will be needed than if the Quality at Entry May 2010 SRF-CF grant had been prepared on Report its own. The time table for the key ac- Appraisal mission August 2010 tions of project preparation is shown Negotiations October 2010 in table 9. The long period for project preparation also results from the fact Board December 2010 clearance that the Ghana Statistics Service will be heavily involved in conducting the population census, scheduled to start on September 26, 2010. Nigeria As in Ghana, the IDA credit and Table 10: Nigeria Statistics Development the SRF-CF grant will be prepared Program Project Timetable simultaneously. The time table for Action Date project preparation is presented in table 10. As part of the preparation Concept review Dec 11, 2009 meeting of the IDA credit, technical exper- tise is being provided to produce Quality at Entry To be determined Report an enhanced NSDS that will include the statistical activities of the Na- Appraisal mission April 2010 tional Population Commission. The Negotiations To be determined SRF Administration Unit has adver- Board clearance To be determined tised for an in-country donor statis- tician. This post will be a World Bank position for three years on a co-terminus basis. Rwanda For Rwanda, the new Bank task team leader will be the country economist, who will be in post on July 1, 2010. In the interim, the newly-recruited economist in Kigali will act as the TTL and the SRF Administration Unit is ready to provide resources (staff time or con- April 2010 27 sultant) to assist the project team. In addition, recruitment of the in- country donor statistician is under way, with assistance from the SRF Administration Unit. The African Development Bank has expressed an interest in funding this position. The project time schedule has not yet been defined. Financial status of the pilot phase Contributions to the SRF-CF have been Table 11: SRF-CF Financial Situation, March 31, 2010 (USD million) made by the United Kingdom (DFID) and the Netherlands. As of April 2010, total 2009 2010 2011 commitments amounted to $119.3 million, Contributions 18.0 33.7 40.9 $80.6 million (UK£ 50 million) from DFID UK (DFID) 14.5 29.8 30.6 for the period 2009-12, and $38.7 million (€ 27.5 million) from the Netherlands for Netherlands 3.5 7.0 7.0 the period 2009-14. Expected expenditures Expenditures (Commitments) 0.5 58.8 1.1 for the five pilot countries, including SRF grants, project preparation and supervi- SRF grants 54.0 sion, in-country donor statisticians (where Project preparation 0.1 0.4 necessary) and SRF administration are esti- Project supervision 0.4 mated at roughly $60 million. Assuming no other contribution to the SRF-CF, a balance Donor statistician 0.1 0.4 of about $60 million is left for future SRF SRF Administration 0.3 0.3 grants and activities. Table 11 presents a Administration fee 0.4 breakdown of the financial situation of the SRF-CF for the calendar years 2009-11, giving annual contributions, grant commitments and expected expenses. Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements Monitoring and evaluation arrangements, including a logical frame- work, for the Catalytic Fund (annex 2) have been approved by the SRF Council. They provide a basis for monitoring and evaluating the Catalytic Fund against its objectives, as agreed in the Administration Arrangements between the World Bank and contributing donors. At the country level, each program supported by the Catalytic Fund is required to include M&E arrangements based primarily on the objectives set out in the country’s statistical strategy. The M&E arrangements for the SRF-CF as a whole will be used by project teams and countries in developing country-specific arrangements, as far as they apply. Data to measure those indicators which apply at country level will be collected and compiled through country pro- cedures, while data that cannot be collected at country level will be collected and compiled by the SRF-CF Administration Unit. Baseline values and targets for each indicator in pilot countries will be defined during project appraisal, as part of the country-level M&E arrangements. It is not yet possible to indicate the country targets for 2010-11, as project appraisals have not been completed 28 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report for any of the pilot countries. For the performance of the overall SRF-CF, two indicators will be monitored: disbursement rates and the levels of technical assistance provided. A key outcome of the SRF-CF is the use of quality data for for- mulating policies and making development decisions. To measure such use, the SRF-CF M&E arrangements recommend conducting country-specific surveys of key data users. To assist project teams in conducting these surveys and to facilitate comparability across coun- tries, the SRF Administration Unit plans to recruit a firm to prepare user survey guidelines, including a model survey questionnaire. Currently, the M&E arrangements envisage an independent eval- uation of the effectiveness of the SRF-CF at the end of 2013. Each country is also expected to conduct an evaluation of its SRF-CF proj- ect, as defined by its M&E framework. Based on preliminary project schedules, however, it is highly likely that pilot countries will not begin project implementation before early 2011. Given a project life of five years, mid-term reviews of the SRF-CF pilot grants could be expected around mid-2013, depending on the progress of project implementation in each country. 5 April 2010 29 The Way Forward, Going beyond the Pilot One of the aims of the SRF-CF is to serve as a catalyst to increase the amount of technical and financial support to the implementa- tion of the national statistical strategies in low income developing countries. Although it is not yet possible to assess the effect of the SRF-CF at this stage, experience so far with the pilot phase does sug- gest a few positive steps towards this objective. For instance, Ghana and Nigeria are now preparing World Bank IDA credits for the im- plementation of their national statistical strategies. In addition, the preparation of the SRF-CF applications has led to the establishment of national partnership groups on statistics in all pilot countries, including fragile states, such as the DRC, where donor trust in the national statistical system has been very limited. In Nigeria, the De- velopment Partners’ Statistics and M&E Support Group is promoting improved coordination of partner activities for the implementation of the NSDS and is putting together a tentative plan on individual partner support to statistics for 2010. Because many countries have completed or are finalizing the design of their NSDS or similar document, the demand for financing the implementation of these plans is growing. To meet that demand, the SRF-CF hopes to extend its support to more countries, but that will depend mainly on the experience of the pilot phase and on the level of additional donor contributions to the Catalytic Fund. Bringing in new donors In keeping with the Paris Declaration, the SRF supports the use of a system-wide approach to statistical development rather than the piecemeal financing of specific activities. The pooling of donor funds for the implementation of a NSDS facilitates this objective. One ob- jective of the SRF-CF is to have a catalytic effect to attract donor funding for statistical development. Donor support can be provided directly to SRF countries for the implementation of their NSDS, or can be pooled in the SRF-CF. The SRF Catalytic Fund will, however, need additional funding from donors to continue its activities. The SRF Administration Unit is encouraging other donors to contribute and further discussions are planned during the PARIS21 Donors’ Meet- ing, to be held in June 2010. To facilitate decision making and lessen 30 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report administrative burdens, the SRF requires that donors contribute a minimum of $5 million to become a member of the SRF Council. Bringing in new countries As already indicated, the earliest the mid-term evaluation of the pilot phase is expected to take place is mid-2013. No decision has been made as to whether additional countries will be invited to apply for SRF-CF grants before that date. Meanwhile, the SRF Administration Unit is considering other ways of increasing country coverage. Ex- amples include: ÔÔ Promoting the system-wide approach in non-SRF countries by encouraging the creation or strengthening partnership groups on statistics to facilitate greater collaboration among develop- ment partners and governments. This effort will be undertaken in close collaboration with the PARIS21 Secretariat and will in- clude countries not covered by the SRF-CF. ÔÔ Encouraging a Partner Report on Statistics (PRESS) at the coun- try level, a tool promoting partner collaboration. This activity is being done in an ad hoc manner but could be supported in non-SRF-CF countries. ÔÔ Providing technical assistance in specific areas, such as the fi- nalization of NSDS, training in general statistical initiatives, or donor coordination in statistics. Following the pilot phase, assuming a positive evaluation and avail- ability of funds, the SRF-CF could be extended to other countries. The SRF Council could consider a number of options to select coun- tries: rely on open competition among IDA countries and make a decision based on defined criteria, or adopt an invitation-only ap- proach, whereby the SRF Council would select a number of coun- tries and invite them to apply. Under either option, efforts will be made to include fragile states. The number of countries receiving grants could also be increased if the size of the grants from the Catalytic Fund is reduced. 1 Annex April 2010 31 SRF Pilot Country Statistical Capacity Indicators, September 2009 SRF Pilot Country Statistical Capacity Indicators, September 2009 SCI Weight Afghanistan DRC Ghana Nigeria Rwanda Practice Score (methodology) 30 20 40 40 60 National accounts base year 10 10 0 0 10 0 Balance of payments manual in use 10 0 10 10 10 10 External debt reporting status 10 0 0 10 10 10 Consumer price index base year 10 0 0 0 0 10 Industrial production index 10 0 0 0 10 0 Import and export price indices 10 0 0 0 0 0 Government finance accounting 10 10 10 0 0 10 UNESCO reporting 10 0 0 10 0 10 National immunization coverage 10 10 0 10 0 10 Special Data Dissemination Standard 10 0 0 0 0 0 Collection Score (source data) 20 20 50 60 60 Population census 20 0 0 20 20 20 Agriculture census 20 0 0 0 0 0 Poverty survey 20 0 0 10 20 20 Health survey 20 20 20 20 20 20 Vital registration system coverage 20 0 0 0 0 0 Availability Score (periodicity and timeliness) 48 47 87 72 77 Income poverty 10 0 0 3.3 6.7 3.3 Child malnutrition 10 3.3 3.3 6.7 3.3 6.7 Child mortality 10 10 10 10 10 10 Immunization 10 10 10 10 10 10 HIV/AIDS 10 0 0 10 10 10 Maternal health 10 6.7 6.7 10 6.7 6.7 Gender equality 10 10 3.3 10 6.7 6.7 Primary completion 10 3.3 3.3 6.7 3.3 3.3 Access to water 10 5 0 10 5 10 Per capita GDP growth 10 0 10 10 10 10 2 32 Annex Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report The monitoring and evaluation framework Overview 1. The Statistics for Results Facility (SRF) is a global initiative concerned with supporting the strengthening of statistical systems and building capacity in the poorest developing countries. The SRF focuses both on scaling-up levels of resources for investing in statistical capacity on the basis of an agreed National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS), and the promotion of more effective delivery of as- sistance, particularly through the use of program-based approaches.6 The SRF Catalytic Fund is a multi-donor “programmatic” trust fund7 managed by the World Bank in support of the SRF. The Catalytic Fund will provide grants to countries to invest in statistics using a program-based approach, with the expectation that successful imple- mentation will catalyze similar investments and approaches in other countries. 2. The arrangements described in this document are intended to provide the basis for monitoring and evaluating the Catalytic Fund against its objectives, as agreed in the Administration Arrangements between the World Bank and donors contributing to the fund. 3. It is important to note that monitoring and evaluation arrangements for each program supported by the Catalytic Fund will be devel- oped separately in each case, and should be based primarily on the monitoring and evaluation arrangements agreed in National Strate- gies for the Development of Statistics or similar documents. However the overall monitoring and evaluation arrangements described in this document should be used by project teams and countries in devel- oping those country-specific arrangements; for instance, most of the indicators included in this document will need to be included in the reporting frameworks for country-specific projects. Objectives of the SRF Catalytic Fund8 4. The development objective of the Statistics for Results Facility Cat- alytic Fund is to increase the capacity of developing countries to formulate policies and to make decisions for development through the sustained improvement in the production, availability and use of quality statistics in participating countries for managing and measur- ing country development results. 6. Program-based approaches include both system-wide and sector-wide approaches, and require comprehensive and coordinated intervention in a given thematic area of intervention, using a program of a developing country government or institution which one or more donors have agreed to support. 7. In a programmatic trust fund, activities are not pre-determined but are agreed through established governance structures. 8. These objectives are consistent with those agreed with donors to the SRF Catalytic Fund. April 2010 33 5. In each participating country the SRF Catalytic Fund aims to: ÔÔPromote a program-based approach to statistical development at the country level. ÔÔSubstantially increase resources for implementing country-owned national statistical development plans.9 ÔÔExplicitly link improvements in the statistical system to the needs of national and sector monitoring frameworks. ÔÔPromote an improved national dialogue and partnership between statistics users and statistical producers. ÔÔDeliver more efficient and effective aid and technical assistance for strengthening statistical systems and results measurement, through better coordination and alignment to agreed national statistical de- velopment plans and through better alignment to the Paris Decla- ration on Aid Effectiveness. 6. In countries that receive grants, both governments and development partners are encouraged to follow several basic principles: ÔÔGovernments should exercise leadership over their statistical de- velopment by preparing and implementing national statistical plans that are comprehensive, realistic, prioritized, and costed. Plans should be consistent with good practice, have clear govern- ment commitment and approval, and have been developed by the national authorities through a participatory and inclusive process with data users. ÔÔDevelopment partners should respect country leadership in statis- tics, increase resources and provide both technical and financial assistance in line with the Paris Declaration, and promote the use of good quality national statistics in their dialogue with govern- ments and in the management of their own aid programs. 7. A specific requirement of the Catalytic Fund (and part of the pro- gram-based approach) concerns the creation, where necessary, of a recognized National Partnership Group of government and develop- ment partner representatives, and other stakeholders as appropriate. This group will discuss and agree national statistical development plans, monitor implementation progress, and is expected to have a recognized lead donor. In some countries, existing arrangements may already be in place, or may be used for this purpose. 8. The lead donor will liaise with national authorities and should have appropriate skills, experience and time for this task. The lead donor takes the lead in promoting coordination, and convening donor con- sultation processes where required. An in-country donor statistician is also expected to be identified either from within the existing donor community or by new appointment (the in-country donor statistician will not necessarily be from the lead donor institution). 9. The term national statistical development plan is used throughout this document, and refers to a plan that has been agreed by both government and development partners as providing a basis for investment in statistical capacity. In most countries this will be a National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS), or will be an implementation plan based on such a document. 34 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report Logical Framework 9. The broad approach of the Catalytic Fund is that financial and tech- nical assistance resources (inputs) are provided to countries to assist in the implementation of a national statistical development plan (ac- tivities). The use of effective implementation arrangements, consis- tent with the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness, will lead to the improved production and use of quality statistics (outputs), in turn leading to increased capacity in recipient countries to formulate and manage development policies and strategies, such as Poverty Reduc- tion Strategies or sectoral development programs (outcomes). A key feature of the Catalytic Fund is that an improved approach to statisti- cal capacity building is also considered to be a desirable output: a catalytic effect to scale-up efforts and to improve the effectiveness of international support is intended. 10. The “results chain” of the Catalytic Fund is illustrated in Figure 1. A full logical framework, based on this results chain and providing monitoring indicators, means of verification, and critical assumptions and risks, is provided in Attachment 1. Figure 1: Results Chain for the SRF Catalytic Fund Outputs Outputs Inputs  Activities  (program and (country  Outcomes level) level) Finance from the SRF-CF, Implementation of good More efficient and Sustained improve- Increased capacity for other development part- quality national statistical effective delivery of ment in capacity to policy formulation and ners, and government. development plan support to the national produce and use official decision-making for Technical assistance from Promote use of program- statistical system, and statistics development the SRFCF Administra- based approach improved alignment Improved response of tion Unit and from other Strengthen mechanisms with principles of Paris statistical system to development partners for user feedback and Declaration on Aid national and sectoral Staff time of the lead prioritization of statistical Effectiveness needs donor, other development activities Improved dialogue and partners, and government Design efficient and effec- Adoption of program- partnership between officials tive project implementation based approach for statistics users and In-country donor statisti- arrangements, consistent supporting statistical producers cian with Paris Declaration on development both Aid Effectiveness in grant-recipient countries and in other countries Increase in resources for implementing national statistical development plans Most of the indicators listed in the logical framework will need to be 11. measured as part of specific monitoring and evaluation arrangements in each grant-recipient country. Since the Catalytic Fund is expect- ed to have a catalytic impact on the approach to statistical capacity building, some indicators also relate to impact at the global level. It should be noted that individual country indicators will not normally be aggregated, but will be reported separately in progress reports to the SRF-CF Council. April 2010 35 Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements Baseline values and targets for indicators identified in the logical frame- 12. work will be estimated for each country during the application, proj- ect design and appraisal process, and as part of the design of country- level monitoring and evaluation arrangements. Baseline values and targets may differ for different countries, as they will be appropriate to the prevailing circumstances. The SRF Catalytic Fund Council may comment on targets selected by countries and project teams. The indicators required for monitoring the Catalytic Fund will be 13. included in country-level monitoring and evaluation arrangements as far as they apply. Data to measure those indicators which apply at country-level will be collected and compiled through those arrange- ments. Data required to measure indicators that cannot be collected at the country-level (such as indicators related to the administration of Catalytic Fund, or progress in implementing SWAp approaches in non-Catalytic Fund recipient countries) will be collected and com- piled by the SRF Catalytic Fund Administration Unit. The logical framework proposes that outcome-level monitoring 14. should be based on feedback from users through well-designed user surveys. All grant-recipient countries will therefore need to arrange user surveys during project inception and then at appropriate inter- vals (for instance, to coincide with any Mid-Term Review, and project completion). Existing surveys or user feedback arrangements may be used, but they should be of high-quality and should be conducted in a manner which provides an independent assessment of the perfor- mance of the National Statistical System in meeting priority national and sectoral needs. Guidance on the implementation of user surveys will be provided by the SRF Catalytic Fund Administration Unit. The logical framework also includes output-level indicators related 15. to making improvements in statistical capacity. This is a key output of the SRF Catalytic Fund, and three specific indicators are proposed to monitor progress: the Statistical Capacity Indicator of the World Bank; the publication of data quality assessments in priority data areas (to be agreed in each country), using the Data Quality Assess- ment Framework of the IMF (unless similar assessment frameworks already exist in the country concerned); and the publication of a data dissemination policy that includes an advanced data release calendar and mechanisms to provide controlled access to survey metadata. Additional specific, measureable and relevant indicators will also need to be included in country-specific monitoring and evaluation arrangements. To help project teams and national authorities choose appropriate indicators, suggestions are provided in Attachment 2. Implementing agencies10 will be responsible for measuring indica- 16. tors included in country-specific monitoring and evaluation arrange- ments, according to identified reporting frequencies. Implementation 10. This is expected to be the national statistical office 36 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report progress reports should be prepared in collaboration with develop- ment partners through the National Partnership Group and the lead donor; the frequency of progress reports will be determined on a case-by-case basis, but is likely to be semi-annual. Supervising entities11 will be responsible for reporting on progress 17. according to their specific procedures unless otherwise specifically directed by the SRF Catalytic Fund Council. Where the supervising entity is the World Bank, progress report- 18. ing normally consists of six-monthly assessments of implementation status and results (known as ISRs), as part of project supervision activities. Progress will also be briefly summarized by Task Teams in six-monthly Grant Monitoring Reports, principally used by the SRF Administration Unit to track grant activities. Additionally, imple- mentation progress and the achievement of project objectives will normally be assessed during a Mid-Term Review and at the end of the project in an Implementation Completion Memorandum. When implementation is unsatisfactory, or when objectives are unlikely to be met, any restructuring of project design will be considered with the appropriate country authorities concerned and with the National Partnership. The Administration Unit will use information provided in project- 19. level monitoring reports of supervising entities to assess progress against indicators listed in the logical framework for the SRF Catalytic Fund, and will provide this information in an annual progress report to the Governing Council. Evaluation An evaluation of the effectiveness of the SRF Catalytic Fund will be 20. conducted by September 2013. An independent evaluation firm will be selected through a competitive bidding process organized by the SRF Catalytic Fund Administration Unit. Members of the Council (or nominated representatives) will be invited to participate in the selec- tion process. Terms of Reference for the evaluation will be approved by the SRF 21. Catalytic Fund Governing Council. Relevant evaluation questions are: a. Country leadership: To what extent have countries led the process of improving statistical capacity? Have development partners re- spected country leadership and supported countries in the devel- opment and implementation of their national statistical develop- ment plan? Are changes sustainable? b. Resource allocation: Have governments and development partners allocated appropriate resources for implementing the national sta- tistical development plan? Have governments allocated resources for sustaining any statistical capacity improvements? Are resource levels sustainable? c. Coordination mechanisms: What mechanisms have been put in place to ensure a better response to user demand by the national 11. This will be the World Bank in most cases April 2010 37 statistical system, and how effective have they been? How effec- tively has the National Partnership Group facilitated donor coor- dination? Has the presence of a lead donor and in-country donor statistician improved the dialogue between national authorities and the donor community? To what extent have development partners aligned their statistical support to national priorities? Are development partners actively supporting a program-based ap- proach in the delivery of statistical capacity building programs? To what extent has there been improvement in alignment with the principles of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness for statisti- cal capacity building (for example, in the use of country systems and procedures). What have been the strengths and weaknesses of a program-based approach, compared to a series of stand-alone projects? To what extent have agreed monitoring and evaluation frameworks been followed? d. Catalytic impact: Has the SRF Catalytic Fund had an impact in attracting additional resources for statistical capacity building in grant-recipient countries? Or has the SRF Catalytic Fund substitut- ed for available funding? Has there been a catalytic impact in pro- moting the use of program-based approaches in other countries and with other development partners? Has there been a catalytic impact in scaling-up resources for statistical capacity building in countries other than those that received grant funds? e. Governance and administration: Have the governance arrange- ments, including the Governing Council and the Administration Unit, been efficient and effective? Has World Bank management of the global trust fund and of country-specific projects been efficient and effective? Have funds been disbursed according to disburse- ment forecasts? Where the World Bank is the supervising entity, to what extent are countries satisfied with World Bank project administration (from application process to project supervision), and the quality of any technical assistance provided? Has the role played by any in-country donor statisticians been effective? f. Increase in statistical capacity: Have there been improvements in the capacity of the national statistical system, and, if so, in what areas? To what extent is the national statistical system compliant with the United Nations Fundamental Principles of Official Statis- tics? Has data quality and data availability improved? Are improve- ments made likely to be sustainable? g. Use of data: Is there evidence of greater trust in national statistics by policy-makers and other users? Have development partners shown greater willingness to use good quality data in their results- oriented measurement frameworks? 38 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report Logical Framework for the Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Important Assumptions Narrative Indicator Baseline Milestone 1 Milestone 2 Target and Risks Outcomes Increased capacity in 1. Proportion of user survey respondents developing countries to satisfied that statistical outputs meet formulate policies and their priority data needs in grant-recip- make decisions for de- ient countries, e.g., proportion of PRSP velopment using better indicators that can be reported statistics Source: Country-specific user surveys of key government officials, donors, research institutions, academia, and civil society, to be conducted at start and end of project, and survey of data use including qualitative assessment of key policy documents 2. Extent to which statistical data is used in policy and decision making processes in selected areas in grant-recipient countries (qualitative indicator) Source: Country-specific user surveys of key government officials, donors, research institutions, academia, and civil society, to be conducted at start and end of project, and survey of data use including qualitative assessment of key policy documents Outputs (country level) Sustained improvement 3. Statistical Capacity Building Indicator Environment exists for in capacity to produce use of statistics for quality official statistics Source: World Bank Statistical Capacity Database evidence-based policy 4. Additional indicators of statistical ca- and decision making to pacity established in results frameworks take place of country-specific projects (see Attach- ment 2 for suggested indicators) Source: Progress reports of implementing agencies and reports of supervising entity Improved response of 5. % increase in user satisfaction of Statistical system re- statistical system to na- official statistics sponds to user feedback tional and sector needs Source: Country-specific user surveys of key government officials, donors, research institutions, academia, and civil society, to be conducted at start and end of project, and survey of data use including qualitative assessment of key policy documents Improved dialogue and 6. Proportion of users in priority sectors Results are used by partnership between who agree that consultation mechanisms statistical producers statistics users and between users and producers on sta- to adjust work plan producers tistical priorities functions well (regular priorities meetings, open discussion of issues, etc.) Improved dialogue can be sustained Source: Interviews with users in priority sectors by project supervision teams Coordination of statisti- cal activities across Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) is effective Outputs (program level) More efficient and effec- 7. Commitments and expenditure for tive delivery of aid and statistical activities by development technical assistance for partners not participating in the National strengthening the sta- Partnership Group tistical system through better coordination and Source: Survey of donor activities in statistics, organized by the Partnership Group or alignment to national the national statistical agency statistical development 8. Proportion of support to statistics by plan and through better development partners that is aligned alignment Paris Declara- with the national priorities identified in tion on Aid Effectiveness the national statistical development plan Source: Survey of donor activities in statistics, organized by the Partnership Group or the national statistical agency April 2010 39 Important Assumptions Narrative Indicator Baseline Milestone 1 Milestone 2 Target and Risks Adoption of program- 9. Existence of National Partnership Program-based approach based approach for Group where implementation and status provides more effective supporting statistical of national statistical development plan process for supporting development both in status is monitored statistical development: grant-recipient countries identified lead donor in and in other countries Source: Minutes of National Partnership Group meetings, progress reports of imple- statistics able to perform menting agency, and reports of supervising entity role effectively, and in-country donor statisti- cian can be identified or recruited Increased resources for 10. Levels of funding committed and National statistical implementing national spent for national statistical develop- development plan statistical development ment plan implementation by donors and responds to priority plans government compared to agreed budget needs and provides basis of implementation plan for sustainably improving statistical capacity; Source: Minutes of National Partnership Group meetings, progress reports of imple- government is able to menting agencies, and reports of supervising entities support change process 11. Levels of funding committed and spent and to provide funding by government for national statistical for improved statistical development plan implementation system Source: Government budget and expenditure reports, progress reports of implementing agencies, reports of supervising entities Activities Implementation of good 12. Activities implemented compared to Activities in national quality national statisti- agreed implementation plan statistical development cal development plan plan provides good basis Source: Implementation progress reports of national statistical development plan for improving statistical 13. Implementation progress rating (if capacity, and improve- World Bank is supervising entity) ments can be sustained at end of financing from Source: Implementation Status and Results monitoring development partners Processes to promote 14. % of development partners partici- Sufficient development use of program-based pating in the National Partnership Group, partners are willing approach compared to number actively supporting to engage in program- statistical development based approach Source: Minutes of National Partnership Group meetings 15. Publication of annual national statis- tical development plan implementation progress report Source: Progress report of appropriate national authority Establish effective Indicator 6 will be used Feedback and prioritiza- mechanisms for feed- tion is used to adjust back and prioritization of activity planning by statistical activities national statistical authorities and statisti- cal production units in MDAs Design and use of 16. Pooled funding arrangements used by efficient and effec- development partners tive implementation arrangements, that are Source: Reports of National Partnership Group consistent with Paris Declaration on Aid Ef- fectiveness 40 Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund Annual Report Important Assumptions Narrative Indicator Baseline Milestone 1 Milestone 2 Target and Risks Inputs Finance from the SRF-CF 17. Ratio of firm commitments compared National statistical and from other develop- to the national statistical development development plan is ment partners plan agreed by National Partnership appropriately prioritized and realistically costed Source: National Partnership Group reports 18. Catalytic Fund project disbursement Policies of supervis- rates ing and implementing agencies permit use of Source: Progress reports of supervising entity approaches consistent with Paris Declaration on aid effectiveness, such as use of country systems and/or basket funding Technical assistance 19. Technical assistance provided, includ- Technical expertise from the SRFCF ing in-country donor statistician, where provided is able to Administration Unit and required advise on the use of from other development program-based approach partners for project de- Source: National Partnership Group reports in statistical capacity velopment and manage- building ment of program-based approach Inputs (e.g. staff time) 20. Existence of lead donor in National of lead donor and other Partnership Group development partners Source: National Partnership Group reports Staff time of government 21. Number of staff devoted mainly to SRF officials activities, including line ministries staff Source: Progress reports of supervising entity In-country donor statisti- 22. Existence of in-country donor statisti- cian cian with role compatible with agreed Terms of Reference Source: National Partnership Group reports April 2010 41 Suggested Indicators for Monitoring Improvements in Statistical Capacity Area Suggested Indicators Statistical system aligned with the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics 1 Existence of a modern statistics law guaranteeing the independence of official statistics 2 Mechanisms to coordinate statistical activities and to ensure compliance with international recommendations and good practice are in place 3 Information about statistical practices and procedures (metadata) is compiled and published 4 Statistical agencies are entitled and able to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics 5 Statistical data on individuals data are confidential and are used exclusively for statistical purposes 6 Existence of effective procedures for quality reviews of key statistics The statistical system is better able to respond to changing and emerging data needs: 7 Mechanism to review data needs and to update priorities is in place 8 Adequacy of institutional arrangements, based on a baseline assessment 9 Capacity to design and implement new statistical activities is in place 10 Regular consultation between data users and providers in place More effective statistical work-force with skills and expertise increasingly aligned with needs 11 Frequency of completion of training needs assessments 12 Ratio of unfilled professional posts to total professional posts 13 The number of days of training undertaken by staff on average each year Improved access by data users to better quality indicators and data series for priority data needs 14 Improvements in data quality for key indicators, using agreed assessment frameworks1 15 Existence of an advanced release calendar for key statistical series 16 Gaps in data coverage (availability, geographical completeness) for key national surveys and indicators 17 Number of specific surveys for which effective micro-data access procedures are in place Improved efficiency and cost-effectiveness of statistical operations 18 Unit cost of key operations, such as household surveys 19 Reporting burden on survey respondents (e.g. average time taken to complete specific survey questionnaires) 1. Countries should make use of the IMF Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF), unless comparable national quality assessment frameworks have been developed The World Bank