For Official Use Only CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS/CPS Data Country: Moldova CAS/CPS Year: FY14 CAS/CPS Period: FY14 – FY17 CLR Period: FY14 – FY17 Date of this review: July 14, 2017 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory WBG Performance: Good Fair 3. Executive Summary i. Moldova is a small, lower-middle income economy with a GNI per capita of $2,240 in 2015 (a decline from 2014). In 2015, the economy suffered from an adverse external environment, a summer drought, and a banking crisis, but IMF reports that the economy expanded by 4.1 percent in 2016. After 1999, the country has had a high economic growth and significant progress in reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity, with 4.8 percent growth in consumption among the bottom 40 percent in 2009-14, compared with 1.3 percent for the entire population. The 2016 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) notes that the national poverty rate shrank from 26 percent in 2007 to 11 percent in 2014. The poverty reduction in Moldova has been driven largely by remittances and pensions. The country ranked 107 out of 188 countries on the 2015 Human Development Index, representing a very modest improvement from 2010. Moldova’s ranking on the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) declined significantly on Control of Corruption (from around 29 in 2011 to 17 in 2015). ii. At the time of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) preparation, the country’s longer term development priorities were laid out in the National Development Strategy (NDS) Moldova 2020 that set seven strategic priorities: justice and fight against corruption, tertiary education, social insurance and pensions, business environment, road infrastructure, accessible and inexpensive finance, and energy efficiency. The NDS was being implemented through a consolidated action plan that outlined two major objectives: improving citizens’ living standards, and European integration. iii. The WBG’s CPS through its three focus areas (increasing competitiveness, enhancing human capital and minimizing social risks, and promoting a green, clean and resilient Moldova) and two cross-cutting themes (governance and gender, with the former reflected separately in the results framework) and seven objectives corresponded well to the government’s development objectives, although some aspects of the WBG program (education and environment) went beyond the government’s stated key strategic priorities. The political instability between 2013 and 2015, including three periods without a government, created operational delays, although the various governments did not seem to have sharply different development policy objectives. At the Performance Learning Review (PLR) stage (done in 2016, a little more than one year before the end of the CPS period), there were a number of adjustments to the CPS program including CLR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CLR Review Manager/Coordinator Nils Fostvedt Zeljko Bogetic Pablo Fajnzylber Consultant, IEGEC Lead Economist, IEGEC Manager, IEGEC Takatoshi Kamezawa Lourdes N. Pagaran Senior Evaluation Officer CLRR Coordinator, IEGEC IEGEC For Official Use Only CLR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group consolidation of the lending pipeline and reduction in the allocation for Development Policy Operations (DPOs) in response to heightened governance and corruption challenges, and modifications on the results framework. iv. The CPS program expected 11 new lending operations (IDA and IBRD) FY14-17, with an annual Development Policy Financing (DPF) as the centerpiece for addressing policy issues, supplemented by Investment Policy Financings (IPFs). The significant number of planned Analytical and Advisory Activities (AAA) would address important areas and would complement lending activities. The actual lending program was smaller than expected ($340.5 million compared to an expected $450 million). IBRD provided $131.5 million (38.6 percent) and IDA $209 million (61.4 percent). Two of the operations were DPFs, approved two years apart, rather than the planned annual approvals. The political uncertainties in Moldova and the impact of a major commercial bank corruption issue starting in FY14 were behind the delays for new operations. The Bank’s administrative budget constraints also necessitated the dropping of some planned projects in the PLR. The CPS envisaged an annual IFC investment amount of $30 million for the period. In reality, IFC made only a single investment during the CPS period (in FY15) with a total net commitment of $10 million. This low level of activity was due primarily to the difficult business environment resulting from political instability and concerns over governance and transparency issues, including in the financial sector. As of March 2017, MIGA had provided two guarantees during the CPS period for a total gross exposure of US$14.4 million with its financial sector clients. v. On balance, the overall development outcome rating was Moderately Unsatisfactory. Two focus areas, including the cross-cutting Governance theme were Moderately Satisfactory, one was Moderately Unsatisfactory and one was Unsatisfactory. Of the seven objectives, two were Mostly Achieved whereas the other five were Partially Achieved. There were two cross- cutting themes. Governance was addressed in the results framework through a number of indicators, but without specific objectives. The nominal achievement of these indicators may not necessarily translate into actual contribution to the CPS objectives. Gender was the other theme, without a separate section in the results framework, which includes just a few scattered gender- sensitive indicators, probably of modest usefulness. vi. Overall, IEG rates the WBG performance as Fair. The program as designed addressed important areas for Moldova’s development, with an appropriate combination of lending and knowledge activities. However, the program design of four annual DPFs with new operations envisaged to be in the form of PforR can be considered overly ambitious given the high risks flagged at the time of the CPS, including a volatile political situation, reform slowdown from state capture, fiduciary risks and capacity risks in the public sector and with private contractors. The Bank demonstrated flexibility under these circumstances in adjusting the program to focus more on IPFs. The program was broad, but with reasonable selectivity at the level of focus areas and objectives. There was, however, limited selectivity at the level of outcomes and indicators as the results framework was excessively detailed and with several instances of weak logic between objectives and the underpinning outcomes and indicators. The inclusion of the cross-cutting governance theme in the results framework was appropriate, but its usefulness was reduced by the absence of one or more objectives. The WBG program in Moldova remained relevant in relation to the country context, as reflected in the 2016 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for the country. vii. The PLR came late in the CPS period (a little more than a year before program closing). While there were a number of specific adjustments to the program, including consolidation of the lending pipeline and reduction in the allocation for DPOs, and modifications on the results framework, the changes were within the already established framework. There was synergy between the Bank and IFC, albeit the expected IFC contributions did not fully materialize. The PLR and the CLR indicated that the Bank provided leadership and collaborated well with other development partners, particularly the IMF and EU institutions. At the PLR stage, the number of outcome indicators further increased to 33 outcomes and 56 indicators, notwithstanding the scaling back of the lending volume and implementation challenges due to political uncertainty. For Official Use Only CLR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group Moldova’s portfolio at closing did not fare well with respect to its comparators. The CLR reports a generally good compliance with safeguards and a satisfactory Bank fiduciary oversight. viii. The CLR identifies as a key lesson that political stability and governance challenges slow the pace of reform and that frequent personnel changes affect portfolio performance. The CLR also provides a number of more project and/or sector specific lessons, of which IEG would like to mention the following: (a) A concern with the widening gap – shown in particular from IFC’s investment climate work – between reform legislation and reform implementation; (b) That WBG procurement procedures were a critical safeguard against attempts to interfere in tenders, implying that such fiduciary controls should continue to be used as public procurement reforms proceed; (c) Development partner coordination for budget support is essential for effective influence on key governance issues (although the basis for this conclusion is not fully clear from the CLR); and (d) That risks to implementation are amplified when a large share of a relatively small country portfolio and pipeline is policy-and/or program-for-results-based lending when there is a weaker institutional capacity exacerbated by frequent staff turnover and deficient monitoring and fiduciary systems. ix. IEG draws two main lessons from this review: First, that caution is called for in moving rapidly to focus on budget support and results based operations under circumstances where there is concern about the quality of systems and controls in financial management and procurement. In the case of Moldova, the program was planned around annual budget support operations of which only two materialized, because of domestic issues of corruption and financial management. Second, that results frameworks would need to be designed with outcome indicators that clearly measure the achievement of the stated objectives, taking into account country context and WBG interventions. In the case of Moldova, the number of indicators was clearly excessive, with several instances of indicators not being well linked with the objectives. This also made difficult effective portfolio management and monitoring and ex-post assessments. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. Moldova is a small, lower- middle income economy with a GNI per capita of $2,240 in 2015 (a decline from 2014). In 2015, the economy suffered from an adverse external environment, a summer drought, and a banking crisis, but IMF reports that the economy expanded by 4.1 percent in 2016 and that unemployment remains low (4.2 percent) reflecting low and declining labor force participation and increasing labor migration. After 1999, the country has had high economic growth and significant progress in reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity, with 4.8 percent growth in consumption among the bottom 40 percent in 2009-14, compared with 1.3 percent for the entire population. The 2016 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) notes that the national poverty rate shrank from 26 percent in 2007 to 11 percent in 2014. The poverty reduction has been driven largely by remittances and pensions. Moldova ranked 107 out of 188 countries on the 2015 Human Development Index, representing a very modest improvement from 2010. Moldova’s ranking on the Worldwide Governance Indicators declined significantly on Control of Corruption (from around 29 in 2011 to 17 in 2015). 2. At the time of the CPS preparation, the country’s longer term development priorities were laid out in the National Development Strategy (NDS, Moldova 2020), a document that had benefited from broad public debate and that had been adopted as national law. This set seven strategic priorities: justice and fight against corruption, tertiary education, social insurance and pensions, business environment, road infrastructure, accessible and inexpensive finance, and energy efficiency. These priorities did not address poverty directly, nor the droughts coming at increasing frequency. The NDS was being implemented through a consolidated action plan that outlined two major objectives: improving citizens’ living standards, and European integration. The WBG’s CPS had three focus areas (increasing competitiveness, enhancing human capital and minimizing social risks, and promoting a green, clean and resilient Moldova) with a cross-cutting governance theme with its own indicators. (Gender was also a cross-cutting theme, but without a specific section in the results framework.) This program corresponded well to the government’s development objectives, although For Official Use Only CLR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group some aspects of the WBG program (education and environment) went beyond the government’s strategic priorities. The marked political instability between 2013 and 2015, including three periods without a government created operational delays, but it does not seem that the various governments had sharply different development policy objectives. 3. The WBG program was also relevant in relation to country context. While the recent growth had reduced poverty, and promoted shared prosperity, and Moldova had progressed with its economic and political transition, many problems remained. This is a small and open economy with a weak drive for innovation. There had been progress in formal reforms for improved governance, but past enforcement had often been weak. Much remained to be done regarding the business environment, financial intermediation was underdeveloped, agriculture remained a mainstay of the economy but was subject to periodic droughts and was vulnerable to the impact of climate change, the education sector suffered from efficiency challenges, and businesses complained of difficulties in finding skilled workers. The country’s extensive social protection system suffered due to inefficiencies and demographic changes – a declining and aging population with large out-migration. The CPS program tried to address all these issues at least to some extent. 4. The above issues remain important for Moldova’s future development. Thus, the 2016 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) identified three top priorities for Moldova in order to create jobs and build up and protect the stock of assets of people, with the ultimate goal of reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner: strengthening the rule of law and the accountability of institutions; improving the efficiency of and equity in service delivery; and increasing the quality, equity, and relevance of education and training. The SCD also identified three supporting priorities: reforming the social protection system, particularly pensions; improving the business regulatory framework; and ensuring sound macroeconomic and fiscal management. These six priorities correspond to objectives and activities under this CPS. It should be noted that the SCD finds that Moldova’s political and economic development continues to be hampered by high-level systemic corruption, which is by far the biggest obstacle reported by firms, at 24 percent, an indicator that has deteriorated appreciably since 2009. 5. Relevance of Design. Overall, the program covered a broad range of objectives that addressed important priorities for the country. Within the focus areas there were seven appropriate objectives (of reasonable clarity and alignment with expected interventions). At the CPS stage, the centerpiece of the lending program was an annual Development Policy Financing (DPF) for addressing various policy issues. The significant number of planned Analytical and Advisory Activities (AAA) could be expected to support and complement well the planned lending operations. The planned dependence on DPFs turned out to be risky, given the country’s political instability and its well-known governance and corruption issues. However, the link between the program objectives and the program interventions was weak due to a very complex results framework, which had a large number of outcomes and indicators that do not measure well the program objectives. In the case of the governance cross-cutting theme, there were 13 indicators with no objective to provide the organizing framework for the indicators. At the PLR stage, a little more than just one year prior to the close of the CPS period, some changes were introduced, such as the reformulation of some objectives and modification of the results framework. In substance, the program’s focus areas and objectives remained unchanged. The link between objectives and interventions was even weaker by the introduction of more outcome indicators without a corresponding change in lending, which at that time was already scaled back. Selectivity 6. The three focus areas and two cross-cutting themes, and seven program objectives were appropriate given limited WBG lending. The planned lending and AAA programs covered a broad range of important topics, and the objectives were reasonably selective. However, selectivity was not well maintained in the choice of outcomes and indicators. In the original CPS results framework, there were a total of 30 outcomes with associated 52 indicators and targets, and these numbers increased even further at the PLR, to 33 outcomes and 56 indicators. This made for a far too detailed results framework, with a clearly excessive number of indicators, of which some were not For Official Use Only CLR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group even relevant to measure the program objectives and in effect did not reflect any sense of prioritization. The excessive number of outcomes and indicators made it difficult to monitor and assess program achievements. Alignment 7. The WBG program was well aligned with the twin goals as these are applicable in the Moldovan context, and was also consistent with the priorities now identified in the SCD. The CPS program addressed important issues for Moldova’s development and for inclusive growth. One possible question could however be whether there was enough attention provided to rural areas. The SCD points out that poverty in Moldova remains a rural phenomenon, with large remaining spatial disparities. The CPS program had one objective for increased competitiveness in agriculture, and this suggests that more attention is required for the rural areas in order to address poverty more effectively. 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: 8. Following the shared approach, the assessment of the development outcome is based on the updated results framework at the PLR stage, with the following changes of nomenclature: Focus areas rather than pillars, and below the level of objectives are outcomes with indicators (with targets). Focus Area 1: Improving Competitiveness 9. Objective 1: Improved business environment and access to finance for business operation. This objective, with six outcomes, was supported primarily by the Second Competitiveness project, the IFC Investment Climate Reform project, Strengthening Auditing and Reporting in Countries of Eastern Partnership, FSAP Update, Trade Study, and IFC advice on financial sector regulation. 10. Outcomes: (i) Customs procedures streamlined and made more transparent. Achieved. Number of days to prepare export documents reduced from 20 to two, against a target of 16 days. (ii) Regulatory burden on enterprises decreased. Partially Achieved. One target was achieved (time spent by managers on regulatory compliance declined to 7.9 percent, compared to the target of eight percent, from the baseline of 10 percent in 2012), one was not achieved (implementation of risk- based inspection methodologies), and one was partially achieved (reduced number of permits and licenses – 110 permits were eliminated but 306 permits remain and are yet to be reviewed and submitted to government and parliament in 2017, against a target of 238). (iii) Increase in business development services to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with WBG support. Partially Achieved. A total of 107 services extended (matching grants and other business development services) against a target of 240. (iv) Improved private enterprises’ access to formal sources of finance. Not Achieved. The target was for a 15 percent increase in private sector credit as share of GDP (2017 compared to 2013); instead, by end September 2016 the share had dropped marginally (albeit recovering after a large drop in 2015). (v) Capital market continue to be strengthened to facilitate increased access to finance. Mostly Achieved. There were four indicators under this outcome. Government bonds listed on the stock exchange was not achieved since trading of government bonds await a fully functional Centralized Securities Depository. Number of known insolvent banks subject to regulatory forbearance was achieved – this number was reduced to zero as targeted – the three identified banks have been placed in liquidation. Number of at-risk banks subject to special diagnostic audits a/o restructuring was achieved – three banks underwent such audits and the implementation of their restructuring plans has been initiated. Better legal framework for timely intervention in distressed banks has been achieved – appropriate legal amendments were passed in 2016. (vi) Greater alignment of corporate financial reporting legislation and practice with EU acquis. Partially Achieved. There was progress made in aligning legislation and practice with the acquis, but more time is needed to finalize and approve laws. There were four indicators under this outcome: Percent of public interest entities publishing IFRS-based financial systems was partially For Official Use Only CLR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group achieved since not all are publicly available through public registry at the end of the CPS period. Provisions of an EU directive transposed into draft auditing law and submitted to Parliament – this was mostly achieved since the main provisions of the directive are reflected in the draft auditing law. Provisions of another EU directive likewise transposed and submitted to Parliament – also mostly achieved with the same status. Public registry of financial statements to be fully operational – this was partially achieved as implementation has been delayed. With two process indicators mostly achieved and two targets for results partially achieved, the outcome was partially achieved. 11. Overall, with one indicator Achieved, one Mostly Achieved, three Partially Achieved and one Not Achieved, Objective 1 was Partially Achieved. 12. Objective 2: Improved Competitiveness in Agriculture. This objective had three outcome indicators with associated targets. It was supported primarily by the Agriculture Competitiveness project, the DCFTA Preparation Support in Agriculture TA, and IFC projects. 13. Outcomes: (i) Enhanced competitiveness of agro-food sector by supporting modernization of food safety management system. Mostly Achieved. The target was for the completion of 100 percent of targeted food safety actions, against which 90 percent have been completed. (ii) Increased market access for farmers. Partially Achieved. The indicator aimed for a 50 percent increase in the sales of high value crops. While comparable figures are not available, the actual increase seems to have been considerably lower. (iii) Stabilized output of apples, plums and grapes among beneficiaries of compensatory grants. Mostly Achieved. Progress is not reported in relation to the stabilized output, but the final outcome appears likely to be positive based on a reported value of 90 percent by December 2015. 14. Overall, with two indicators Mostly Achieved and one indicator Partially Achieved, Objective 2 was Mostly Achieved. 15. For Focus Area 1 one objective was Partially Achieved and one objective Mostly Achieved. Overall, Focus Area 1 was Moderately Satisfactory. With both its investments and advisory service (AS), IFC contributed to this Focus Area. Thus, IFC’s investment climate reform project contributed toward three indicators of customs procedures streamlined and made more transparent; regulatory burden on enterprises decreased; and improved private enterprises’ access to formal sources of finance. Focus Area 2: Enhancing Human Capital and Minimizing Social Risks 16. Objective 3: Improved quality of and access to health and education services . The objective had four outcome indicators with associated targets. It was supported primarily by the Education Reform project, the Quality Education in Rural Areas project, the Health Transformation project, and the Local Roads Improvement project. 17. Outcomes: (i) Strengthened quality of education. Mostly Achieved. One indicator was to implement quality assurance standards for 70 percent of hub schools. This was not achieved as the indicator was dropped from the related project at restructuring (and there is no progress on the substituted project indicator for total receiving schools that meet infrastructure requirements under national quality assurance standards). Another indicator was for revised student assessment tests to be administered, including disaggregation of results by socio-economic background. This was achieved. (ii) Improved efficiency of the education sector. Achieved. The two indicators under this outcome were both achieved: Implementation of per-capita financing nationwide, and increased student-teacher ratio from10.85:1 (2011/12) to 11.50:1 (2015/16) – the ratio has now reached 11.89:1. (The need to increase this ratio on efficiency grounds was related to a sharp drop in the number of students in Moldovan schools). While these indicators do not directly measure the actual quality of education, they contribute to the quality of learning outcomes as reflected in the PISA indicators for Moldova in 2015. (iii) Improved access to quality healthcare. Not Achieved. There were four indicators under this outcome: (a) Increased coverage of population with mandatory health insurance. This was achieved at 85.9 percent, slightly above the 85 percent target. (The target had also stated as being composed of 44 percent male and 56 percent female, which corresponds to the For Official Use Only CLR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group actuals as of December 2015.) (b) Reduced out-of-pocket payments as share of total health expenditure. The target of a reduction to 35 percent was not achieved – instead, the percentage increased above the baseline of 45 percent, based on data from a health module produced under the Health Transformation project. The CLR reports that neither indicators (a) and (b) were the result of WBG interventions. (c) Number of family doctor visits per person to increase from 2.9 to 3.2 per annum. This was not achieved and the ratio seems to have dropped below the baseline in 2016. (d) Annual acute care hospital discharges per 100 persons to drop from 17.6 to 16.0. This target was achieved at 15.1 in 2016. (iv) Improved physical access to rural education and health services. Not Achieved. There were two indicators under this outcome, both to be supported by the Local Roads Improvement project, which only became effective in August 2016 and hence no progress is as yet reported in the ISR. 18. Overall, with one outcome indicator Achieved, one Mostly Achieved and two Not Achieved, Objective 3 was Partially Achieved. It should be noted that several of these indicators do not measure the two dimensions of the program objective: quality and access of health or education services. 19. Objective 4: Fiscally sustainable and equitable pension and social assistance systems. This objective, with two outcome indicators, was primarily supported by Programmatic Human Development TA, Pension Reform Advocacy TA, and the Strengthening the Effectiveness of the Social Safety Net results-based financing. 20. Outcomes: (i) Fiscally sustainable pension system. Not Achieved. One indicator target was to reduce pension spending below 8 percent of GDP. This was not achieved since pension spending has remained above 8 percent. The other indicator was to improve pension system fairness by maximizing replacement rates within budget envelope. This was not achieved since pension top-ups were introduced in 2013 and did not improve the replacement rates that remained below the baseline number. The lack of sustainable progress on the pension system is unfortunate given the growing pressures on the system from Moldova’s demographic development with a rapidly aging population. (ii) Improved equity of social assistance. Partially Achieved. There were two indicator targets: (a) The share of population in the poorest quintile receiving Ajutor Social benefits to increase from 14.9 percent to 20 percent. This was partially achieved at 17.6 percent. (b) Spending on consolidated categorical benefits should be reduced by 20 percent from 2012. This was partially achieved with a reduction of 11 percent. 21. Overall, with one outcome (fiscally sustainable) Not Achieved and one Partially Achieved, Objective 4 was Partially Achieved. 22. For Focus Area 2 both objectives were Partially Achieved. Overall, Focus Area 2 was Unsatisfactory. Focus Area 3: Promoting a Green, Clean and Resilient Moldova 23. Objective 5: Greater adaptation and resilience to climate change. This objective, with one outcome measure (with three indicators) was supported primarily by the Disaster and Risk management project and its additional financing, while the GFDDR – Moldova Disaster and Climate Risk Management Capacity Building - supported the State Hydro-meteorological Agency. 24. Outcome (i): Strengthened State Hydro-met ability to forecast severe weather and country’s improved capacity to prepare for and respond to natural disasters. Mostly Achieved. There were three indicators: (a) Issuing more accurate and specific forecasts of weather conditions. This was achieved – the scale of forecasting weather conditions has been reduced from 5,000 km2 to 300 km2 as targeted. (b) Longer lead time for weather warnings to users. This was partially achieved with the lead-time of weather warnings to users having been expanded to between three and six hours against a target of 12 hours. (c) Strengthened capacity to coordinate emergency responses has been achieved including with a fully operational emergency command center. For Official Use Only CLR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group 25. The objective had two dimensions: greater adaptation and resilience to climate change. However, the indicators deal with forecasting and ability to respond to natural disasters and have therefore not much to do with adaptation and resilience to the longer - term challenges from climate change. In other words, the indicators, while mostly achieved, do not provide sufficient evidence that the objective of adaptation and resilience has been achieved. At best, this objective is Partially Achieved. 26. Objective 6: Improved natural resources management. This objective, with two outcome indicators, was supported primarily by the Soil Conservation project, the Community Forestry project, the Forest Law and Enforcement and Governance II program (financed by the Bank and the EU, among others), and the Agriculture Competitiveness project. 27. Outcomes: (i) Sequestration of 0.8 million tons of CO2 through forestation of degraded lands. Achieved. Total sequestration is estimated at 1.2 million tons. (ii) Enhanced competitiveness of agro- food sector by mainstreaming agro-environmental and sustainable land management practices. Mostly Achieved. One target was achieved – increase in on-farm area benefiting from sustainable land management practices (target: 10,000 hectares; achieved: 34,000 hectares). The other target was mostly achieved – increase in area protected by rehabilitated anti-erosion shelter-belts; target was 50,000 hectares and achievement by December 2016 was 45,100 hectares. 28. With one indicator Achieved and one Mostly Achieved, Objective 6 was Mostly Achieved. 29. Objective 7: Increased energy efficiency and security. This objective, with three outcome indicators, was supported primarily by the District Heating Improvement project, the Energy Efficiency Transformation in District heating TA and the Electric Power Market Options study. 30. Outcomes: (i) Decreased energy costs, increased quality, and improved affordability of Chisinau heat supply (Through implementation of building metering and temperature controls, with incentives for customers to decrease energy use). Mostly Achieved. One target was partially achieved – the number of people with access to more energy-efficient cooking and/or heat generating facilities went up from 27,000 to 45,000 against a target of 63,000. The target was supposed to be 50 percent female but the ISR does not report gender data and presumably the gender distribution of beneficiaries would in any case be determined by population distribution in benefiting areas. The other target was achieved – actual fuel savings reported in November 2016 were 52,759 GCal, as targeted. (ii) District heating company debt restructured by 2017 to improve creditworthiness. Not Achieved. There was progress in debt restructuring in 2016 that was submitted to the majority shareholder (Gazprom) which has not yet approved. (iii) Options for diversification of electricity supply identified. Achieved. The Bank carried out such a study (and may finance the selected interconnection in FY18). 31. With one indicator Mostly Achieved, one indicator Not Achieved, and one indicator Achieved, Objective 7 was Partially Achieved. However, these are process indicators that do not directly measure the achievement of the stated program objective. In sum, there is no evidence on the security dimension of the objective and limited evidence on the efficiency dimension. 32. For Focus Area 3 one objective was Mostly Achieved and two were Partially Achieved. Overall, Focus Area 3 was Moderately Unsatisfactory. Cross-Cutting Area: Cross-Cutting Theme: Governance 33. The cross-cutting governance area had 13 indicators. It was useful to have a separate set of indicators for this cross-cutting theme, but it would have been preferable also to have one or more stated objectives to provide the organizing framework and basis for the selection of indicators. The number of indicators was excessive, and many of these indicators were also process-related and/or based directly on project activities, with little program additionality. The theme was supported primarily by the Central Public Administration reform project, the Tax Administration Modernization project, a DFID Good Governance TF and the Governance Reform Scorecard, Advice on Strengthening Public Investment management, the Governance E-Transformation project, and For Official Use Only CLR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group various other pieces of TA. (There was also a cross-cutting gender theme that was not reflected in the results framework apart from a few gender-sensitive indicators. The purpose of this theme was not clear given – as per the CLR – that gender equality in Moldova is high by global and regional standards and that the country had also progressed substantially in terms of legislation. The CLR also noted that for the CPS period there was increasing gender analysis and monitoring, with about 80 percent of the portfolio considered gender-informed, but that it still faces challenges in terms of making a transformational impact on key gender equality issues.) 34. Indicators: (i) Professionalization of public service through implementation of position of state secretaries. Mostly Achieved. Most ministries are now managed by non-political, professional state secretaries (target was for all ministries and central agencies to be so managed). Professional development programs should also be approved and in place, these have been created but the relevant ICR does not report on the number of secretaries that have adopted it. (ii) Improved legislative framework for tax administration. Partially Achieved. Working groups have been established. But the revision of the tax code has not yet been carried out. (iii) Strengthened capacity for monitoring implementation of governance reform. Partially Achieved. An initial governance scorecard was to be publicly available on-line by April 2017. This publication is reportedly now planned for June 2017. (iv) Government monitors public investment as means of improving strategic decision-making and resource allocation. Partially Achieved. A public investment monitoring methodology has been developed, but not yet implemented. (v) Improved accountability of Executive for public investment through access to information. Partially Achieved. The target was for program evaluation mechanism to be developed and used, whereas a government resolution has been approved, but implementation is slow and incomplete. (vi) Improved capacity for audit oversight of public expenditure. Achieved. Under the target minimum three projects should use national auditing procedures meeting set criteria – this has taken place and the quality of the audits has been satisfactory. (vii) Improved Treasury system business processes through the real-time processing of payment orders. Achieved. Payments can now be processed electronically although there have been problems with the full delivery of the new system. (viii) Improved functionality and uptake of electronic procurement system. Partially Achieved. Upgraded e-procurement software was rolled out as programmed, but some important functionalities were lacking. (ix) Improved social accountability environment through opening of government data and opportunities and capacity building for broad citizen engagement in service delivery and public expenditure management processes. Achieved. Thus, as reported in the CLR, at the closing of the Governance E- Transformation project 937 government data sets were publicly available through the Open Data Portal. (x) More participation in decision-making processes and enhanced quality of public debate. Mostly Achieved. Sixty communities (against a target of forty) participating in the GPSA project applied social accountability tools in secondary education, and there were more than a million visits to the government services portal. While this exceeded the project target, the PLR target of 1.45 million was not achieved. (xi) Increased uptake of government e-services, including by females. Achieved. The Governance E-Transformation project reached (2016) 617,354 beneficiaries, double the target of 300,000, with 52 percent female beneficiaries (target of 50 percent). (xii) Increased favorable citizen perception of quality of public services . Achieved. More than the targeted 60 percent express satisfaction. (xiii) Improved interaction and strengthened understanding of development challenges between representatives of both banks of Nistru river. Mostly Achieved. This concerns confidence-building between Moldova and Transnistria – a worthwhile objective that could well have been handled outside of the country program results matrix. The Knowledge Building Program for Confidence Building between Moldova and Transnistria has suffered from slow project implementation, with only one of four pilot sub-projects completed by end of 2015, and it is unlikely, based on information from the country team, that the WBG will be able to achieve these subprojects. 35. For this cross-cutting area five indicators were Achieved, three Mostly Achieved, and five Partially Achieved. Overall, the theme was Moderately Satisfactory. However, without an explicit objective it is unclear what nominal achievement of governance indicators means within the broader For Official Use Only CLR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group context of Bank strategy and country conditions. Therefore, nominal achievement may not necessarily translate into actual contribution to the CPS objectives. Overall Assessment and Rating 36. In sum, two of the program objectives were Mostly Achieved and five were Partially Achieved. In addition, the cross-cutting governance theme did not have any objectives (only a large number of indicators and targets). On balance, the overall development outcome rating was Moderately Unsatisfactory. Focus Area I (Improving Competitiveness) was Moderately Satisfactory, while Focus Area III (Promoting a Green, Clean and Resilient Moldova) was Moderately Unsatisfactory and Focus Area II (Enhancing Human Capital and Minimizing Social Risks) was Unsatisfactory. Of the seven objectives two were Mostly Achieved (Improved Competitiveness of Agriculture and Improved Natural Resources Management) whereas the other five were Partially Achieved. There were two cross-cutting themes. Governance was addressed in the results framework through a number of indicators, but without specific objectives. The nominal achievement of these indicators may not necessarily translate into actual contribution to the CPS objectives. Gender was the other theme, without a separate section in the results framework, which includes just a few scattered gender-sensitive indicators, probably of modest usefulness. (For instance, a measurement of female beneficiaries among a target of 63,000 people with access to more energy- efficient cooking and/or heat-generating facilities may well be dependent on population distribution around such investments.) However, the CLR states that the design of two-thirds of 15 projects active during FY14-17 incorporated some form of gender analysis. Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating Focus Area I: Improving Competitiveness Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Objective 1: Improved business environment and Partially Achieved access to finance for business operation Objective 2: Improved competitiveness in agriculture Mostly Achieved Focus Area II: Enhancing Human Capital and Moderately Unsatisfactory Minimizing Social Risks Unsatisfactory Objective 3: Improved quality of and access to health Partially Achieved and education services Objective 4: Fiscally sustainable and equitable pension Partially Achieved and social assistance systems Focus Area III: Promoting a Green, Clean and Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Resilient Moldova Objective 5: Greater adaptation and resilience to Partially Achieved climate change Objective 6: Improved Natural Resources Mostly Achieved Management Objective 7: Increased energy efficiency and security Partially Achieved Cross-Cutting Theme: Governance Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 37. At the beginning of the CPS period, the outstanding lending volume was $184.5 million comprising of ten lending operations, all Investment Project Financing (IPFs) financed by IDA credits. The original CPS program envisaged as its centerpiece four DPFs, one per annum, to be complemented with IPFs and with an aggregate lending amount of $450 million for 16 operations including three additional financings. However, total new approvals were lower than planned at $340.5 million for eleven operations, including two additional financings. Of the total lending amount, $131.5 million (38.6 percent) were IBRD loans and $209 million (61.4 percent) were IDA credits. For Official Use Only CLR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group Two of the operations were DPFs – for $30 million and $45 million, respectively, approved two years apart as part of a series. In FY14, Moldova also had an early PforR operation (Health Transformation Program – approved May 2014). The original CPS program had also included a large guarantee for energy efficiency improvement that did not materialize due – according to the CLR – to the energy regulator’s slow progress in applying approved tariff methodologies. The actual program deviated from the original plan mainly because of the political uncertainties in Moldova and the impact of a major commercial bank corruption issue starting in FY14. The CLR also mentions that Bank administrative budget constraints necessitated the dropping of planned forestry and public administration reform projects, although related activities were incorporated into other planned operations. The lending program was complemented by 25 grants and trust funds amounting to $44.8 million, spread over a substantial number of activities of which the largest was for government central public administration reform ($11.45 million). 38. Moldova’s portfolio at closing did not fare well with respect to its comparators. IEG rated six closed operations during the period, with one operation rated Satisfactory, three Moderately Satisfactory, and two Moderately Unsatisfactory. At the binary scale, these ratings are, however, lower than the averages for ECA and the Bank at 66.7 percent MS or better, by number of projects (ECA at 75.3 percent and the Bank at 74.1 percent), and 74.3 percent Satisfactory, by amount (far below ECA at 94.4 percent and the Bank at 86.4 percent). The risks to development outcomes of these operations were also higher than the ECA average at 50 percent (by number, rated moderate or lower). Moldova’s active portfolio seems to indicate good performance, the average disbursement ratio has been higher than ECA and the Bank, while the average percentage of projects at risk at 11.1 percent is somewhat lower than ECA (13.3 percent) and Bank (15.7 percent). All eight ongoing operations are rated Moderately or better– one Satisfactory and seven Moderately Satisfactory, which would indicate a potential for some downgrading on completion. 39. The CPS indicated an annual IFC investment amount of $30 million for the CPS period. Contrary to this expectation, IFC made only a single investment during the CPS period (in FY15) with a total net commitment after cancellations of $10 million with an existing agribusiness client. This low level of activity was due primarily to the difficult business environment with political instability and concerns over governance and transparency issues, including in the financial sector. IFC’s outstanding portfolio stands now at $73 million. During the review period, IEG validated one Expanded Project Supervision Report (XPSR) of an IFC investment project and assigned a Mostly Successful development outcome rating. IEG validated that the IFC client financial institution made an adequate contribution to the growth of underserved small and medium size companies in Moldova and brought new competitors to the market. 40. As of March 2017, MIGA had provided two guarantees during the CPS period for a total gross exposure of US$14.4 million with its financial sector clients. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services (ASAs) 41. The Moldova program was supported by a significant number of ASAs: 12 pieces of economic and sector work (ESW) and 26 of technical assistance (TA), spread reasonably over the CPS period. The ESW work covered a wide range of topics including a poverty assessment (FY16 – two years later than first planned), a Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and a Public Sector Expenditure Review, and a number of policy notes/study in trade, food security, forestry, power, water and road management and finance. The TA work also covered a broad range of topics that complemented the ESW work in FSAP, PER and energy and beyond including knowledge activities providing relevant support to lending activities. Also, about ten of the trust funded activities supported public sector improvements such as the DFID-funded Good Governance Trust Fund. Several other trust funds provided support for the strengthening of the financial sector, or for environmental activities such as energy conservation. 42. During the review period, IFC approved two new advisory services (AS) projects amounting to $4.9 million, one for investment climate reform and another for renewable energy. For investment climate reform the AS project contributed in three key areas: improve the investment climate for business operations and exit (e.g. insolvency laws), streamline agribusiness regulations, and For Official Use Only CLR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group investment policy and promotion. IFC collaborated with public entities and supported the drafting of many legal documents that aimed at streamlining policies and procedures, which have already been implemented and resulted in reducing the compliance costs for private businesses. The renewable energy project was terminated due to a change in IFC’s strategy to focus more on supporting existing and prospective investment clients. IEG did not validate any Project Completion Reports (PCR) of AS project during the review period. Results Framework 43. The original CPS results framework reflected the link between the country development goals, issues and obstacles, the CPS outcome indicators and WBG interventions including both lending and AAA. Although the IFC program was small in terms of the number of projects and the amount, IFC’s contributions to the WBG program were reasonably well represented in the results framework. 44. The results framework contained a total of 30 outcomes and 52 indicators. This results framework was clearly excessive in its attempted coverage and level of detail, and the large number made difficult any sense of prioritization from the framework. Several of the indicators did not address well all the aspects of the related objectives (for instance, Objectives 3 and 5), and some process indicators were at best of modest usefulness for the program as a whole. There was also uneven distribution of outcome indicators: while some objectives had a large number of indicators (Objective 1 and Governance theme); others did not have a sufficient number of indicators to measure progress adequately. The lack of objectives for the governance indicators call into question their relevance and contribution to the overall program. Finally, the results framework did not fully capture the contribution of the two DPFs to program results, perhaps due in part to the fact that there were no ISRs prepared for these two operations. At the PLR stage, the number of outcome indicators further increased to 33 outcomes and 56 indicators, notwithstanding the scaling back of the lending volume and implementation challenges due to political uncertainty. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 45. The PLR and CLR both report that the WBG has provided leadership and significant support to enhance development partner coordination. The documents do not mention any specific formal coordination mechanisms, but refer to a de facto division of labor between Moldova’s key development partners, with the WBG being the principal voice on energy and governance issues, and playing a leading role regarding transport and health issues. The documents emphasize the common stance with other partners, in particular, the IMF and EU institutions and member countries, that has helped spur key structural reforms such as in the banking system. They also mention that in 2015 the WBG managed the preparation of a briefing book of 28 policy notes that set out the collective recommendations of eight development partners on development policy issues that provided a platform for dialogue with the government. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 46. The CLR reports a generally good compliance with safeguards and a satisfactory Bank oversight. Safeguards policies were triggered in two out of six operations that were closed and validated by IEG during the review period, in the Water and the Health sectors. Although compliance is not explicit in the specific interventions, all project ICRs and ICRRs indicated that the applicable instruments were adequately prepared. Project issues and negative impacts are reported to have been properly resolved or mitigated. No Inspection Panel investigation was registered during the CPS period. 47. The Integrity Vice Presidency (INT) reported that during the CPS period a high-ranking official of the Ministry of Finance alleged that bribes had been offered by the agent of a large firm in relation to payments on a contract, that INT was able to find a number of indications that confirmed the allegations, and had referred the case back to the local authorities. In addition, the PLR earlier (2016) noted that INT had received a large number of reports referring to Moldova over the preceding five years, most related to procurement. The PLR stated that to prevent and mitigate these risks, the WB would: (i) continue strong anti-corruption communication efforts; (ii) enhance awareness of how For Official Use Only CLR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group supervision and control are applied in Bank operations; and (iii) build a record of suspicious cases for further analysis and action. The CLR states that fiduciary compliance has been generally good, and that the Bank’s procurement procedures have been a critical protection against attempts to interfere in large tenders. Ownership and Flexibility 48. During much of the CPS period Moldova suffered from prolonged political instability, with seven prime ministers or acting prime ministers and three periods without a government between September 2014 and January 2016. This and the massive banking fraud that resulted in the collapse of three banks in November 2014 affected the government’s ability to take and implement timely decisions, demonstrating that political instability and governance challenges will slow the pace of reform, especially when there are also frequent personnel changes. The WBG’s program was affected by these issues, both in size and composition – most importantly, the reduced importance of DPFs. However, a degree of government ownership to specific operations seems to have remained throughout the period. The WBG demonstrated flexibility in the face of adverse circumstances, as with the move from DPFs to IPFs, and with maintaining a reasonably sized lending program (albeit less than originally expected) and with reasonably good implementation. WBG Internal Cooperation 49. CPS was a joint strategy with IFC, but the role of the latter turned out to be considerably smaller than expected due to Moldova’s internal problems. For the area of investment climate reform, the Bank and IFC had effective collaboration with the Bank’s second Competitiveness Enhancement project and IFC’s Investment Climate Reform project. As part of the WB DPF team (2012-2013), IFC also contributed to the design and implementation of challenging investment climate reforms. Risk Identification and Mitigation 50. The CPS identified risks from fiduciary and capacity risks, public procurement, slippages in macro-economic and structural reforms, poor governance in the financial sector, and political economy risks from political uncertainty or a change in government. The CPS included appropriate measures to mitigate several of these risks, such as regarding public procurement, and it rightly emphasized that even in a risky environment the WBG needed to be ready to support reforms when opportunities might arise. However, with the benefit of hindsight it is clear that the CPS underestimated the political economy risk, and therefore planned a work program that could not be fully implemented. In particular, the emphasis on a series of four DPFs was optimistic, although the CPS also noted that if structural reforms should stall or macroeconomic risks would materialize, DPFs would not be considered. The PLR some years later took appropriate note of how the risks had evolved, in particular from political instability, but support for policy reforms through DPFs remained the base case. The PLR also noted that the commercial and reputational risks associated with investment in the private sector were generally high, and it was therefore expected that the mix of IFC’s activities in the country would shift away from investment and towards advisory services. The PLR also noted that the fiduciary risks had grown and had affected project implementation. The CPS stated that new operations (apart from DPFs) would take the form of PforRs whenever suitable, which seemed premature in relation to the well-known governance issues in the country, and this approach was modified in the PLR. Overall Assessment and Rating. 51. Overall, IEG rates the WBG performance as Fair. 52. Design. The program as designed addressed important areas for Moldova’s development, with an appropriate combination of lending and knowledge activities. The program was broad, but with reasonable selectivity at the level of focus areas and objectives. There was however, limited selectivity at the level of outcomes and indicators as the results framework was excessively detailed and with several instances of weak logic between objectives and the underpinning outcomes and indicators. Some of the indicators were of limited usefulness and relevance and some did not For Official Use Only CLR Review 14 Independent Evaluation Group measure adequately the program objectives. The inclusion of the cross-cutting governance theme in the results framework was appropriate, but its usefulness was reduced by the absence of one or more objectives. Overall, the program was too optimistic given country conditions and the recognized country risks. Thus, the CPS program planned for a series of four DPLs, only two materialized with a delayed approval of the second DPO in FY 17 due to the authorities’ delayed response to improper behavior in the banking sector implementation. 53. Implementation. The actual program was smaller than envisaged in the CPS and with a somewhat different composition, most importantly with the reduced role for DPFs. The actual IFC program was also smaller than expected due primarily to country conditions, but IFC contributed nevertheless to several objectives under Focus Area I. There was synergy between the Bank and IFC, albeit the expected IFC contributions did not fully materialize. The PLR and the CLR indicated that the Bank provided leadership and collaborated well with other development partners, particularly the IMF and EU institutions. The PLR came late in the CPS period (a little more than a year before program closing). Although there were at the time a number of specific adjustments to the program including the shift in lending composition and the results framework updated, they were within the already established framework. At the PLR stage, the number of outcome indicators further increased to 33 outcomes and 56 indicators, notwithstanding the scaling back of the lending volume and implementation challenges due to political uncertainty. Moldova’s portfolio at closing did not fare well with respect to its comparators. Some indicators suggest good performance of the active portfolio as reflected in the high average disbursement ratio and lower percentage of projects at risk with respect to its comparators. However, the rating of MS or better for the eight active operations would suggest potential downgrading at completion in light of the past average ratings of completed operations. The CLR reports a generally good compliance with safeguards and a satisfactory Bank oversight. It also reports that fiduciary compliance has been generally good, and that the Bank’s procurement procedures have been a critical protection against attempts to interfere in large tenders. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 54. The CLR is concise and well prepared, and it covers most important aspects. It could however have discussed the changed circumstances for DPFs against the optimistic expectations in the CPS, provided some information about the results of the first DPF, and assessed the justification for delivering the second DPF in FY17. It could also have flagged the early PfoR operation – the first for Moldova, and commented on the CPS expectation of moving (apparently quite rapidly) into more PforRs in lieu of IPFs – an expectation that so far has not materialized. 8. Findings and Lessons 55. The CLR sees as a key lesson that political stability and governance challenges slow the pace of reform and that frequent personnel changes affect portfolio performance. The CLR also provides a number of more project and/or sector specific lessons, of which IEG would like to mention the following: (a) A concern with the widening gap – shown in particular from IFC’s investment climate work – between reform legislation and reform implementation; (b) That WBG procurement procedures were a critical safeguard against attempts to interfere in tenders, implying that such fiduciary controls should continue to be used as public procurement reforms proceed; (c) Development partner coordination for budget support is essential for effective influence on key governance issues (although the basis for this conclusion is not fully clear from the CLR); and (d) That risks to implementation are amplified when a large share of a relatively small country portfolio and pipeline is policy-and/or program-for-results-based lending when there is a weaker institutional capacity exacerbated by frequent staff turnover and deficient monitoring and fiduciary systems. 56. IEG draws two main lessons: First, that caution is called for in moving rapidly to focus on budget support and results based operations under circumstances where there is concern about the quality of systems and controls regarding finances and procurement. In the case of Moldova, the program was planned around annual budget support operations of which only two materialized, several years apart, because of domestic issues of corruption and financial management. Second, For Official Use Only CLR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group that results frameworks would need to be designed with outcome indicators that clearly measure the achievement of the stated objectives, taking into account country context and WBG interventions. In the case of Moldova, the number of indicators was clearly excessive, with several instances of indicators not being well linked with the objectives. This also made difficult effective portfolio management and monitoring and ex-post assessments. Annexes CLR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Moldova Annex Table 2: Moldova Planned and Actual Lending, FY14-FY17 Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Moldova, FY14-FY17 Annex Table 4: Moldova Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY14-17 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Moldova, FY14-17 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Moldova and Comparators, FY14-17 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Moldova and Comparators, FY14-17 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Moldova, FY14-17 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Moldova, FY14-17 Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Moldova, 2014 – 2016 Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Moldova Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Moldova Annex Table 14: IFC net commitment activity in Moldova, FY14 - FY17 Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Activities in Moldova, 2014-2017 Annexes CLR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Moldova CPS FY14-FY17 – Focus Area 1: Actual Results IEG Comments Improving Competitiveness Objective 1: Improved business environment and access to finance for business operation Outcome (i): Customs Following the introduction of e-filing procedures streamlined and procedures, the number of days to prepare made more transparent export documents was reduced to 2 and that the time for border compliance was reduced to Indicator: 3h in 2017, according to the 2017 Doing Number of days to prepare export Business report, In addition, information from documents (Trading Across the 2015 Cost of Doing Business Survey – Borders indicator of Doing which is based on interviews with business Business) companies and measures the business Baseline: 20 (2012) community’s perception of certain regulations/ Target: 16 (2017) procedures – indicates that waiting time to get documents needed for trade took 14 days in 2015. The Trade Study ASA (P148369, delivered in FY16, see overview report) analyzed Moldova’s foreign trade and value chains of exports and IFC Investment Climate Reform (project 576047, FY12) supported the reduction in the number of inspections (completion report: MU). Achieved. Major Outcome Outcome (ii): Regulatory burden The 2nd Competitiveness Enhancement Measures on enterprises decreased project (P144103, FY15) and the IFC Investment Climate Reform project (576047) supported this indicator. The First (P143283, FY14, see Program Document) and Second (P149555, FY17, Program Document) Development Policy Operations (DPOs) supported measures to facilitate competition and reduce regulatory and compliance costs. However, no ISR or ICR was available to verify progress. Partially Achieved Indicator A: Managers spend less Indicator A: According to the 2016 Cost of time on regulatory compliance Doing Business study, the time spent by (Cost of Doing Business survey) managers on regulatory compliance declined Baseline: 10 % (2012) to 7.9% in 2016, compared to 10% in 2012 Target: 8 % (2017) and 2013. The last ISR: MS of project P144103 (November 2016) also reports a reduction in management time spent meeting regulatory requirements. Achieved. Indicator B: Indicator B: this target was not achieved since # Implementation of risk-based that, based on the 2016 Legal and Institutional inspection methodologies based on Review of Inspection Functions, “most inspectorates still do not use risk criteria to Annexes CLR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Focus Area 1: Actual Results IEG Comments Improving Competitiveness clear criteria and approved target inspections, due partly to inadequate inspection plan information systems and data reporting”. Baseline: 0 % (2012) However, the completion report of the IFC Target: 40 % (2017) Investment Climate Reform project indicates # Reduction in ad-hoc inspections that the inspections reform was initiated, from 100 % (2012) to 7 % (2017), which introduced a risk-based approach in using clear criteria for unplanned inspections and accomplished almost 50% inspections. reduction of inspection bodies entitled to # 100 % of planned inspections initiate inspections (reduced from 64 to 33). published on e-Government Not Achieved. Center’s website. Indicator C: Reduced number of Indicator C: The CLR reports that following the permits and licenses changes to the law in July 2016, 110 permits Baseline: 416 (2015) were eliminated and the remaining 306 Target: 238 (2017) permits are to be reviewed and submitted to government and the parliament in 2017. Partially Achieved. Outcome (iii): Increase in The CLR reports that the 2nd Competitiveness business development services Enhancement project (P144103, FY15) to small and medium enterprises supported this indicator and that, by end-2016, (SMEs) with WBG support 522 business development services were approved, of which 99 were fully delivered. Baseline: 0 (2013) The last ISR: MS (November 2016) reports Target: 240 (2017) that, as of October 2016, 43 SMEs received matching grants, 6 were under evaluation and 25 in the pipeline and that 64 business development services had been provided to SMEs. Partially Achieved. Outcome (iv): Improved private The CLR reports that the target was not enterprises’ access to formal achieved by end-September 2016, with private sources of finance sector credit at 41.4%, compared to 42.4% in 2013 (after falling to 35% in 2015). The CLR reports that the 2nd Competitiveness Indicator: By 2017, 15% increase in Enhancement project (P144103, FY15) and private sector credit as share of the IFC advice on financial sector regulation GDP compared to 2013 supported this indicator. It also reports that IFC investments in financial institutions (through projects518335-MAIB, 629306 PC Bank Moldova and 631849 Eximbank Moldova) helped increase their outreach to SMEs; in 2014, IFC clients provided loans to about 3,300 SMEs and had an outstanding loan portfolio of about USD 260 million. In addition, the First (P143283, FY14, see Program Document) and Second (P149555, FY17, Program Document) DPOs supported measures to ease conditions for access to Annexes CLR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Focus Area 1: Actual Results IEG Comments Improving Competitiveness finance. However, no ISR or ICR was available to verify progress. Not Achieved. Outcome (v): Capital market The Financial Sector Monitoring TA (P147063, continues to be strengthened to FY14) and the Moldova FSAP Update facilitate increased access to (P146486, FY16) supported the preparation of finance a 2014 Technical Note and a 2016 note on Financial Market Infrastructure and Risk Assessment of Central Securities Depositories. This indicator was also supported by the activities prepared under the Financial Sector Advisory Center (FinSAC) and the DPO-2 (P149555, FY17) conditionality supported: license withdrawal from defrauded banks (Prior Action 5); special audits in three largest banks (Prior Action 6); and legal amendments to eliminate the Ministry of Justice’s powers to approve the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) regulations and grant legal immunity to NBM staff carrying out their duties in good faith (Prior Action 4). However, no ISR or ICR was available for the Second (P149555, FY17, Program Document) DPO to verify progress. Mostly Achieved. Indicator A: Government bonds Indicator A: the CLR reports that the target listed on stock exchange was not achieved since the Centralized Baseline: 0 (2012) Securities Depository (CSD) was created Target: by 2017, government through the drafting of a new law and the bonds with > 1-year maturity traded trading of government bonds will only begin on stock exchange when the CSD is fully functional. The TA on the Legal Framework for Securities Settlement Systems and Central Securities Depositories (FY13) supported this indicator. Not Achieved. Indicator B: Number of known Indicator B: as of October 2015, 3 banks insolvent banks subject to (BEM, Unibank, and Banca Sociala) were regulatory forbearance placed into liquidation (see national Baseline: 3 insolvent banks still information reporting the liquidation and the operating PID for project P149555). Achieved. Target: 0 (these banks’ licenses with-drawn and liquidation initiated) Indicator C: Number of at-risk Indicator C: three banks (Victoria Bank, banks subject to special diagnostic Moldinconbank, and Moldova Agroindbank) audits and/or restructuring underwent special audits, as planned by the Baseline: 0 WBG (see WBG information) and that Target: 3 banks’ audits and time- restructuring plans were adopted and initiated bound restructuring plans adopted in all three. Achieved. and initiated Annexes CLR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Focus Area 1: Actual Results IEG Comments Improving Competitiveness Indicator D: Better legal framework Indicator D: the CLR reports that the target for timely intervention in distressed was achieved, since the legal amendments banks passed in 2016 removed the MOJ’s power to Baseline: NBM regulations delayed approve the NBM’s regulations and gave NBM by MoJ approval process and NBM staff immunity for duties carried out in good staff lack immunity for duties faith. This indicator has been supported by carried out in good faith activities prepared under the FinSAC (see Target: Legal changes (i) eliminate 2015 activities report). Achieved. MoJ power to delay registration of NBM regulations, and (ii) confer immunity to NBM staff for duties carried out in good faith Outcome (vi): Greater alignment The CLR reports that the target is partially of Corporate Financial Reporting achieved, with progress made in aligning the (CFR) legislation and practice CFR legislation and practice with the EU with EU acquis. acquis but that more time is needed to finalize and approve laws, due to a change in . government in early 2016. The Strengthening Auditing and Reporting in the Countries of the Eastern Partnership (STAREP) TA (P133467, FY13) supported this indicator. The Snapshot of Financial Reporting work in STAREP countries, for February 2017 indicates that transposition tables to benchmark accounting and auditing legislation to the requirements of the EU acquis communautaire have been published on the Minister of Finance’s website. Partially Achieved. Indicator A: Not less than 80 % of Indicator A: the CLR reports that the PIEs are Public Interest Entities (PIEs) file preparing IFRS-based financial statements and publish IFRS-based financial (see information on the IFRS system), but not statements all are publicly available through Public Registry. Partially Achieved. Indicator B: Provisions of Directive Indicator B: the CLR reports that the main 2006/43/EU transposed in draft provisions of the Directive 2006/43/EU are Auditing Law and submitted to reflected in the draft Auditing Law (see Draft), Parliament for adoption expected to be adopted by the [parliament in 2017. Mostly Achieved. Indicator C: Provisions of Directive Indicator C: the CLR reports that the target is 2013/34/EU transposed in draft mostly achieved since the main provisions of Accounting Law and submitted to the Directive 2013/34/EU are reflected in the Parliament for adoption draft Accounting (see Draft) Law, expected to be adopted by the Parliament in 2017. Mostly Achieved. Indicator D: Public Registry of Indicator D: the CLR reports that technical financial statements fully specifications for Public Registry were Annexes CLR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Focus Area 1: Actual Results IEG Comments Improving Competitiveness operational, i.e. enabling collection developed, but that their implementation has and availability of financial been delayed, due to the pending government statements online decision on its subordination under National Bureau of Statistics. The Snapshot of Financial Reporting work in STAREP countries, for February 2017 indicates that a draft concept on improving the functionality of the public register of financial statements was developed. Partially Achieved. Objective 2: Improved competitiveness in agriculture Outcome (i): Enhanced The WBG supported Moldova in updating its competitiveness of agro-food agri-food sector agenda in the negotiations of sector by supporting the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade modernization of food safety Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU through the management system DCFTA Preparation Support in Agriculture TA (P132866, FY13). The Moldova Agriculture Indicator: Completion of targeted Competitiveness project (P118518, FY12) and food safety actions for its additional financing (P157765, FY17) also approximation to EU Sanitary and supported this indicator. As reported in the last Phytosanitary (SPS) requirements ISR: S (December 2016) almost 90% of Baseline: 20 % (2013) targeted food safety actions for approximation Target: 100 % (2017) with EU SPS norms completed. In addition, the First (P143283, FY14, see Program Document) and Second (P149555, FY17, Program Document) DPOs supported measures to make investments subsidies in agriculture more efficient and equitable. However, no ISR or ICR was available to verify progress. Mostly Achieved. Outcome (ii): Increased market As reported in the last ISR: S (December access for farmers 2016) for project P118518, sales (domestic and exports) of high value crops by targeted Indicator: Increased sales partnerships that receive investment support (domestic and exports) of high grants have increased by 15%. IFC financing value crops by targeted –IFC Transoil project (704725) and Bostavan partnerships receiving investment project (613340) – reached from 13,000 to support grants 17,000 farmers by year in the 2013-15 period, Baseline: 0 % (2013) which helped the farmers get increase Target: 50 % (2017) linkages to key value chains and markets. These IFC agribusiness clients also increased their purchases from domestic suppliers from USD 164 to USD 246 million in 2015, and sustained about 2,400 jobs by year in the 2013-2015. Partially achieved Annexes CLR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Focus Area 1: Actual Results IEG Comments Improving Competitiveness Outcome (iii): Stabilized output of The last ISR: S (December 2016) for project apples, plums and grapes P118518 does not report progress in relation among beneficiaries of to the stabilized output of production of compensatory grants apples, plums and grapes among beneficiaries of compensatory grants since the Indicator: month of December 2015, for which the Baseline: 100 % (2014―average reported value is 90%. Mostly Achieved. output for 2012-14 for apples, plums and grapes) Target: 85 % (2016―average over 2015-17) CPS FY14-FY17 –Focus Area 2: Enhancing Human Capital and Actual Results IEG Comments Minimizing Social Risks Objective 3: Improved quality of and access to health and education services Outcome (i): Strengthened Partially Achieved. quality of education. Indicator A: Implementation of Indicator A: the Moldova Education Reform quality assurance standards for project (P127388, FY13) was to support this hub schools initiated and scaled up indicator but the project’s outcome indicator (% of hub schools) was dropped at project restructuring (February Baseline: 0 % (2013) 2017). The revised PDO incorporated an Target: 70 % (2017) indicator related to the “total receiving schools that meet infrastructure requirements under national quality assurance standards” (end target: 15 for June 2019). The last ISR: MS (February 2017) reports no progress on the revised indicator. Not Achieved. Major Outcome Indicator B: Improved student Indicator B: project P127388 supports this Measures assessment system: revised tests indicator. As reported in the CLR, national administered and baseline for student assessment tests for 4th and 9th grades grades 4 and 9 tests established in were updated in 2014 and applied in June 2015, including disaggregation by 2015 and 2016 (see project restructuring). socio-economic background The last ISR: MS (February 2017) reports that, as of March 2016, the administration of the revised national testing of all 4th and 9th grades students were completed. Achieved. Outcome (ii): Improved efficiency Achieved. of education sector. Indicator A: Implementation of per- Indicator A: the Quality Education in Rural capita financing nationwide (2013) Areas of Moldova project (P090340, FY06, closed November 2013) and its additional financing (P129552, FY12) supported this indicator. As reported in the CLR, the target Annexes CLR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 –Focus Area 2: Enhancing Human Capital and Actual Results IEG Comments Minimizing Social Risks was achieved since per-capita financing was implemented in all primary and general secondary schools according to the per student formula methodology as of October 2013 (see Management: MU and IEG: MU). Achieved. Indicator B: Increased student- Indicator B: the Moldova Education Reform teacher ratio project (P127388, FY13) supports this Baseline: 10.85:1 (2011-12) indicator. As indicated in the CLR, the baseline Target: 11.50:1 (2015/16) and target were revised at project restructuring (February 2017) – the target was set at 11.85:1. The last ISR: MS (February 2017) reports that, as of February 2017, the student- teacher ratio for Grades 1-12 of primary and general secondary education was 11:89:1, exceeding the target. Achieved. Outcome (iii): Improved access to Partially Achieved. The IFC Moldova Health quality health-care. project (27578, FY10), supported the Ministry of Indicator A: Increased coverage of Indicator A: IEG: MS for the Health Services Health in conducting a population with mandatory health and Social Assistance project (P095250, competitive bidding insurance FY08) reports that the share of the population process, negotiating and Baseline: 81 % (2013) covered with mandatory health insurance signing the PPP agreement Target: 85 % (2017) (of which increased from 76.7% in 2007 to 85% as of with the selected winning 44% male and circa 56% female) December 2014 (the ICRR and ICR do not bidder for the operation of report gender disaggregated information). The a diagnostic imaging center CLR indicates that this indicator was not the and a new radiotherapy result of WBG activities and that in 2010, the center in Chisinau WB jointly with WHO conducted a study to (completion report: MS). review free mandatory health insurance and proposed measures to increase coverage. based on the recommendations of the study adopted by the Government, the coverage increased and exceeded the target. The data on a coverage rate of 85.9% (in 2016) that the CLR reports comes from administrative and/or regular statistical data collected by the Ministry of Health. Not Achieved. Indicator B: Reduced out-of-pocket Indicator B: the CLR reports that out of pocket payments (formal and informal) as (OOP) payments increased to 46.6% of total share of total health expenditure health expenditure in 2015 and that “the health Baseline: 45 % (2013) module of the household budget survey Target: 35 % (2017) conducted in 2016 revealed that average monthly healthcare-related expenses (…) increased by 37% compared to 2012 and by 57% compared to 2008”. This data comes from a health module produced from a WBG TA under the health Transformation Project (P144892, FY14). Annexes CLR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 –Focus Area 2: Enhancing Human Capital and Actual Results IEG Comments Minimizing Social Risks However, as reported in the, this indicator was not the result of WBG activities Not Achieved. Indicator C: Number of family Indicator C: the CLR reports that the target is doctor visits per person not achieved, since the number of family Baseline: 2.9 (2014) doctor visits reached 3/person in 2015 and Target: 3.2 (2017) declined to only 2.8 in 2016, as per official data available on the website of the National Health Insurance Company. Not Achieved. Indicator D: Annual acute care Indicator D: the last ISR: MS of the Moldova hospital discharges per 100 Health Transformation Project (P144892, persons FY14) indicates that annual acute care Baseline: 17.6 (2011) hospital discharges decreased to 15.10/100 Target: 16.0 (2017) persons, as of June 2016 (and that annual data for 2016 will be available by end March 2017). Achieved. Outcome (iv): Improved physical The Local Roads Improvement project access to rural education and (P150357, FY16) supports this indicator. health services According to the last ISR: MS (December 2016), the project became effective in August Indicator A: Number of schools 2016 and the Moldova State Roads connected by Administration was still undertaking rehabilitated/upgraded local road procurement activities. Hence, no progress is corridors reported in the ISR on the number of schools Baseline: 0 (2015) and health facilities connected by rehabilitated/ Target: 10 (2017) upgraded local road corridors. Not Achieved. Indicator B: Number of health facilities connected by rehabilitated/upgraded local road corridors Baseline: 0 (2015) Target: 9 (2017) Objective 4: Fiscally sustainable and equitable pension and social assistance systems Outcome (i): Fiscally sustainable The WBG supported analytical work and pension system advisory activities for the reform of the pension system through the Programmatic HD (P143613, FY15, see overview of activities), the Pension Reform Advocacy TA (P157759 , FY15, see list of advocacy products produced) and the Pension Reform (P152247, FY15, see final report on Policy Options for Urgent Parametric Changes). Not Achieved. Indicator A: Pension spending Indicator A: the CLR reports that the target below 8 % of GDP was not achieved, since pension spending has Baseline: 8 % (2013) remained above 8% of GDP in 2013-15. Not Target: <8 % (2017) Achieved. Annexes CLR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 –Focus Area 2: Enhancing Human Capital and Actual Results IEG Comments Minimizing Social Risks Indicator B: Pension system Indicator B: the CLR reports that the target fairness improved by maximized was not achieved since pension top-ups were replacement rates within budget introduced in 2013 and did not improve envelope replacement rate “which continued to decline, Baseline: 28 % (2013) remaining at 25.8% for old-age pensions and Target: 30 % (2017) 25.3% for all pensions in 2015”. Not Achieved. Outcome (ii): Improved equity of The Strengthening the Effectiveness of the social assistance. Social Safety Net Results-based Financing project (P120913, FY11) supported this indicator. The First (P143283, FY14, see Program Document) and Second (P149555, FY17, Program Document) DPOs supported measures to improve the coverage of targeted social assistance programs. However, no ISR or ICR was available to verify progress. Partially Achieved. Indicator A: Share of population in Indicator A: the last ISR: MS (December 2016) poorest quintile receiving Ajutor of project P120913 indicates that the Ajusto Social benefits (gender data Social program has maintained above 50,000 provided by adult recipients) beneficiary households and that coverage of Baseline: 14.9 % (2011) the bottom quintile increased from 12.2% in Target: 20.0 % (2017) 2014 to 17.6% in December 2015 for this program. It also reports that 56.4% of the beneficiaries of the Safety Nets programs are female, in December 2015 (121,943 women beneficiaries out of 216,215 beneficiaries). Partially Achieved. Indicator B: Spending on Indicator B: the last ISR: MS (December 2016) consolidated categorical benefits of project P120913 indicates that, as of Mach further reduced by 20 % 2016, the spending on consolidated Baseline: 7 % (2012) categorical benefits was reduced by 11%, Target: 30 % (2017) compared to the 2010 level of spending. Partially Achieved. CPS FY14-FY17 – Focus Area 3: Promoting a Green, Clean and Actual Results IEG Comments Resilient Moldova Objective 5: Greater adaptation and resilience to climate change Outcome (i): Strengthened State The Disaster and Climate Risk Management Major Hydro-met ability to forecast project (P115634, FY11) and its additional Outcome severe weather and country’s financing (P148125, FY15) supported this Measures improved capacity to prepare for indicator. The GFDRR - Moldova Disaster and and respond to natural Climate Risk Management Capacity Building disasters. supported the State Hydro-Meteorological Agency (see presentation). Mostly Achieved Annexes CLR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Focus Area 3: Promoting a Green, Clean and Actual Results IEG Comments Resilient Moldova Indicator A: Issuing more accurate Indicator A: as reported in Management: MS and specific forecasts of weather for project P148125, the forecasting of conditions weather conditions is more specific, with the Baseline: Scale of weather scale of weather forecasts reduced from 5000 forecasts at 5000 km2 (2013) km2 to 300 km2 as of September 2016. Target: Scale of weather forecasts Achieved reduced to 300 km2 (2017) The project target has been Indicator B: Longer lead-time for Indicator B: as reported in Management: MS revised from 12h to 3-6 weather warnings to users for project P148125, lead-time of weather hours but the indicator Baseline: Severe weather warnings to users has been expanded to 3-6 target in the CPS has not warnings― 10 minutes to 1 hour hours, as of June 2016. Partially Achieved. been revised consequently. (2013) As reported in Target: Severe weather Management: MS for warnings―12 hours (2017) project P148125: “The numerical changes in the Indicator C: Strengthened capacity Indicator C: as reported in Management: MS targets mostly affected the to coordinate emergency for project P148125, the capacity to second PDO indicator responses coordinate response to emergencies has been where the lead time for Baseline: No Emergency strengthened, with emergency response drill severe weather warnings Command Center to coordinate showing capacity improvement as compared was changed from 12 to 3-6 response (2013) to the baseline (two emergency drills have hours”. Target: Emergency Command been conducted and an emergency command response shows improvement center has been created during the project compared to baseline and recent and is fully operational). Achieved test of system (2017) Objective 6: Improved Natural Resources Management Outcome (i): Sequestration of 0.8 The Soil Conservation Project (P077763, million tons of CO2 through FY04) and the Community Forestry Project forestation of degraded lands (P109459, FY09) supported carbon (2014-17) sequestration and the reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG). The CLR reports that the total CO2 sequestration under both operations is estimated at over 1.2 million tons for the 2014- 2017 through the afforestation of degraded lands, according to data submitted by the Forestry Agency which is the implementing agency for these two operations. The Forest Law and Enforcement and Governance II Program (2013-2016), financed by the WBG and the EU, among other donors, also supported capacity-building to the main governmental institution responsible for forestry on improved forest management and the implementation of the national afforestation plan (see program information and activities). Achieved. Annexes CLR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Focus Area 3: Promoting a Green, Clean and Actual Results IEG Comments Resilient Moldova Outcome (ii): Enhanced The Moldova Agriculture Competitiveness competitiveness of agro-food project (P118518, FY12) and its additional sector by mainstreaming agro- financing (P157765, FY17) supported this environmental and sustainable indicator. Mostly Achieved. land management practices Indicator A: Increase in on-farm Indicator A: as reported in the last ISR: S area benefitting from sustainable (December 2016), the on-farm area benefitting land management practices from sustainable land management practices Baseline: 0 hectares (2013) increased by 34,000 hectares, as of Target: 10,000 hectares (2017) December 2016. Achieved. Indicator B: Increase in area Indicator B: as reported in the last ISR: S protected by rehabilitated anti- (December 2016), the area protected by erosion shelter-belts rehabilitated anti-erosion shelter-belts Baseline: 0 hectares (2013) increased by 45,100 hectares, as of Target: 50,000 hectares (2017) December 2016. Mostly Achieved. Objective 7: Increased energy efficiency and security Outcome (i): Decreased energy The District Heating Efficiency Improvement costs, increased quality, and Project (P132443, FY15), supported this improved affordability of indicator. Chisinau heat supply. IFC investment in UF Moldova (project 52835) Implementation of building supported power distribution to about 867,000 metering and temperature customers, as of 2015. Mostly Achieved. controls, with incentives for customers to decrease energy use. Indicator A: People with access to Indicator A: the last ISR: MS (February 2017) more energy-efficient cooking for project P132443 reports that the number of and/or heat-generating facilities people who gained access to more energy- Baseline: 27,000 (2015) efficient cooking and/or heat-generating Target: 63,000 (2017) of which facilities improved from 27,000 to 45,000 as of 50% female November 2016 (the project target is 109,00o) –the ISR does not report gender data. Partially Achieved. Indicator B: Actual fuel savings Indicator B: the last ISR: MS (February 2017) (GCal) for project P132443 reports 52,759 GCal of Baseline: 0 GCal (2015) actual fuel savings, as of November 2016 (the Target: 52,759 GCal (2017) project target is 79,138 GCal). Achieved. Outcome (ii): District Heating The Energy Efficiency Transformation in Company debt restructured by District Heaty TA (P157735, FY15) supports 2017 to improve capacity-building of Termoelectrica and has creditworthiness. supported the preparation of debt restructuring scenarios (see the October 2015 Implementation and Preparation Support Visit Annexes CLR Review 30 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Focus Area 3: Promoting a Green, Clean and Actual Results IEG Comments Resilient Moldova Indicator: Debt Restructuring Plan Aide Memoire). In addition, the District signed with Moldovagaz Heating and Electricity Tariff and Affordability Analysis (P151113, FY16) informed policy dialogue on sector reforms. The CLR reports that the target was not achieved despite important progress in debt restructuring in 2016. It reports that Termoelectrica, Moldovagaz (MG), and the Ministry of Economy signed a Memorandum of Understating outlining an agreement on the amount of debt and main terms for its restructuring, which was submitted for review to Gazprom (the majority shareholder of MG) but due to regional geopolitical environment and internal re-organization, Gazprom has not yet reacted. Not Achieved. CPS FY14-FY17 – Cross-cutting Theme: Actual Results IEG Comments Governance Outcome (i): Professionalization The Central Public Administration Reform – As reported by the country of public service through CPAR - project (P105602, FY07, IEG:S) team, there was no specific implementation of position of supported this indicator. Not verified. indicator in the CPAR result state secretaries framework, but the state secretary positions were Indicator A: Indicator A: the CLR reports that the target is introduced during CPAR Baseline: All ministries and central mostly achieved, since most ministries―13 of implementation to achieve agencies managed by political 16, or 80% (according to legal data from the CPAR PDO. appointees (2013) State Chancellery on appointment decisions)- Target: All ministries and central are managed by non-political, professional agencies managed by professional state secretaries. Management: S for the state secretaries (2017) CPAR reports that the State Secretary Major position for each ministry was introduced Outcome (through the Government Statutory Act 155, Measures February 2014) as the top civil service position to strengthen the ministries’ organizational management and implementation capacity. Mostly Achieved. Indicator B: Indicator B: the CLR reports that the target is Baseline: Number of professional mostly achieved since “professional development programs for senior development program comprising six modules executive officials, including state approved and in place; all 13 state secretaries secretaries (2013) have completed at least one module” (see Target: Professional development data from the Government and the EU on programs based on defined these trainings). Management: S for the CPAR competencies and performance reports that annual planning professional requirements approved and in development program has been created but it place; and share of program- does not report on the number of secretaries covered state secretaries (90 %). that have adopted it. Mostly Achieved. Annexes CLR Review 31 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Cross-cutting Theme: Actual Results IEG Comments Governance Outcome (ii): Improved legislative The Tax Administration Modernization project framework for tax (P127734, FY16) and the DFID Good administration. Governance TF that includes Moldova, among various ECA countries (see DFID information), Indicator: Adoption of revised Tax as well as the Tax Legislation Revision TA Code in line with requirements of (P158228, FY16) supported this indicator. EU-Moldova Association According to the PAD for project P127734, the Agreement. revision of the Tax Legislation is to be carried under the DFID TF. The CLR reports that the target is partially achieved, with eight working groups that are currently finalizing revisions to the Tax Code and that the revisions are expected to be approved during 2017 (the country team provided the link to the latest Aide Memoire – February 2016 - for project P158228, which details progress but the link led to an email, not to the report itself). Partially Achieved. Outcome (iii): Strengthened The DFID Good Governance TF and the capacity for monitoring Governance Reform Scorecard (P158221, implementation of governance FY17) support capacity-building to the State reform Chancellery to develop and make publicly available a Governance Scorecard. Indicator: Initial Governance The CLR reports that initial Governance Scorecard publicly available on-line Scorecard covering three dimensions ―public (April 2017) administration reform, cost of doing business, and social assistance― were developed and approved on December 1, 2016 and that their publication is planned for June 2017 (see latest Aide Memoire, reporting progress for project P158221). Partially Achieved. Outcome (iv): Government The Advice on Strengthening Public monitors public investment as Investment Management (P130304, FY15) means of improving strategic supported this indicator. Partially Achieved. decision-making and resource allocation. Indicator: Mechanism for Indicator: a public investment monitoring (PIM) monitoring public investment methodology was developed, including the projects related legal framework and the Ministry of Baseline: No mechanism (2014) Finance completed a database for existing Target: Mechanism developed and and proposed public investment projects for used. Existing public investment 2015 and 2016 state budgets but that the project databases developed, with updated methodologies are not yet update possibilities (2017) implemented (see output description). Outcome (v): Improved The Advice on Strengthening Public accountability of Executive for Investment Management (P130304, FY15) supported this indicator (see output Annexes CLR Review 32 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Cross-cutting Theme: Actual Results IEG Comments Governance public investment through description). The CLR reports that the access to information. Government Resolution 1029 (dated 12/19/2013) on public capital investments Indicator: (approved in October 2016, see communique) Baseline: No publicly available established a project evaluation mechanism information on public investment and that the Guidelines for Public Investment Target: Program evaluation Project Preparation and Appraisal were mechanism developed and used, adopted by the Ministry of Finance Order No. and at least 3 programs evaluated 185 (they support line ministry staff in project for targeting, effectiveness and preparation appraisal, and evaluation, see efficiency of outcomes and impact legislative information). The CLR also reports that implementation is slow and incomplete (as reported in an EU report), partly due to limited budget resources and that the Ministry of Finance’s webpage is not updated regularly. Partially Achieved. Outcome (vi): Improved capacity The WBG supported Global Partnership for for audit over-sight of public Social Accountability’s activities for Moldova, expenditure the Public Financial Management TA Indicator: Minimum 3 projects use (P082916, FY05) and the Strengthening the national auditing procedures Capacity of the Court of Accounts of Moldova meeting following criteria: TA (P133554, FY13) supported this indicator. (a) audit performed in accordance As reported in IEG: MU for project P082916, a with generally accepted auditing modern audit methodology was developed, practices; (b) audit carried out by improving transparency and in line with the staff with professional qualifications new EU framework. and experience; The CLR reports that three projects are (c) audit performed under audited exclusively by the Moldovan Supreme constitutional or legal provisions Audit Institution, the Courts of Accounts designed to assure independence. (COA): the Strengthening Effectiveness of (Baseline: 0) Social Safety Net project (P120913, FY11, see the 2015 auditing report), the Education Reform project (P127388, FY13) (see the 2015 auditing report), and the Health Transformation project (see the January 2017 auditing report) and that the quality of audits is assessed as satisfactory and audits are in accordance with international standards. Achieved. Outcome (vii): Improved Treasury The CLR reports that the target was achieved system business processes since, beginning January 1 2016, an improved Treasury system business processes allows Indicator: payments prepared by the Program Baseline: Manual processing of Implementation Units to be processed payment orders electronically. The Public Financial Target: Real-time processing of Management TA (P082916, FY05) supported payment orders the introduction of a single treasury account Annexes CLR Review 33 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Cross-cutting Theme: Actual Results IEG Comments Governance (in 2007) and of a Financial Management Information System. Additional information from the country team indicates that the supplier failed to deliver a fully functioning system (the major problem was with the budget execution module which assumed also the improvement of the Treasury business processes) but that it provided the Ministry of Finance with certain blueprints for Budget Execution Module, and necessary ICT infrastructure which allowed the Ministry of Finance to complete the system with its own resources after the project closure in December 2013. Targeted financial management training and capacity building activities (in 2014 and 2015) were organized for the Ministry of Finance and PIUs' FM staff by the WB financial management team aiming to explain the WB requirements in disbursement and financial management procedures, and to facilitate the process of development of the Treasury - Client system Achieved. Outcome (viii): Improved The Strengthening Public Procurement IDF functionality and uptake of Grant (P129112, FY12) supported this electronic procurement system. indicator. The CLR reports that the roll-out of e- Indicator: procurement system to all central contracting Baseline: Paper-based public authorities was partially achieved due to the procurement procedures (2011) missing electronic bid submission Target: Upgraded e-procurement functionality. It also reports that not all software rolled out for use by all standard bidding documents were developed. central line ministries and agencies The last available ISR: S (April 2015) reports (2015) that, as of April 2015, all Ministries (16) and 133 additional contracting agencies used the e-tending system. The project’s Implementation Completion and Results Memorandum (February 2016) reported that, as of October 2014, “149 GOM contracting authorities were using the new eProcurement System, including all central and local public authorities and institutions subordinated to them” and that the access was extended to all contracting authorities but that the electronic bid submission was not achieved. Partially Achieved. Outcome (ix): Improved social The last ISR: S of the Governance E- accountability environment Transformation Project (P121231, FY11) Annexes CLR Review 34 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Cross-cutting Theme: Actual Results IEG Comments Governance through opening of government reports that the project achieved 100% of the data and opportunities and indicators. The project “reached more than capacity building for broad 600,000 citizens of which more than 50% citizen engagement in service were women who benefited from access to e- delivery and public expenditure services through public service portal or management processes mobile access” and “2500 people were trained under the project in the use and application of information and communication technologies”. As reported in the CLR, at project closing, 937 government data sets, including on public expenditure are publicly available through the Open Data Portal. Achieved. Outcome (x): More participation The WBG supported Global Partnership for in decision-making processes Social Accountability (GPSA) activities in the and enhanced quality of public education sector through the Improving the debate Quality of Education from Primary to Upper Secondary Schools (see website) and the Empowered Citizens Enhancing Accountability of Education Reform and Quality Project (P147607, FY14) supported this indicator. Achieved. Indicator A: Number of WB- Indicator A: 60 communities participating in supported communities applying GPSA project (2016) applied social social accountability tools in accountability tools in secondary education education sector and 11 schools applied selected social Baseline: 0 (2013) accountability tools without formal participation Target: 40 (2016) in project activities (see last ISR: S, April 2016, of project P147607. Achieved. Indicator B: Number of government Indicator B: the Governance E-Transformation data sets’ downloads from Open Project (P121231, FY11) supported this Data Portal indicator. The last ISR: S reports that the Baseline: 0 (2013) number of visits to the government services Target: 1,450,000 (2016) portal (about 1.07 million) exceeded the project target (400,000) and that 937 government data sets were made public, as of November 2016. No other indicator reports on the number of downloaded datasets. Information provided by the country team, from the GET Agency monthly barometer confirms this data (see webpage). Achieved. Outcome (xi): Increased uptake of The Governance E-Transformation Project government e-services, (P121231, FY11) supported this indicator. The including by females last ISR: S reports that the project reached 617,354 beneficiaries, of which 52% were Indicator: % of direct project women. beneficiaries (including female) Achieved. Annexes CLR Review 35 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17 – Cross-cutting Theme: Actual Results IEG Comments Governance Baseline: 20,000 (40 % female) (2013) Target: 300,000 (50 % female) (2017) Outcome (xii): Increased The Governance E-Transformation Project favorable citizen perception of (P121231, FY11) supported this indicator. The quality of public service last ISR: S reports that 66% of the users were satisfied with the overall quality of transaction Indicator: Share of satisfied processing for the main public services citizens accessing Government (citizen’s portal). Services Portal Achieved. Baseline: 45 % (2013) Target: 60 % (2017) Outcome (xiii): Improved The Knowledge Building Program for interaction and strengthened Confidence Building between Moldova and understanding of development Transnistria (P151996, FY17) supports this challenges between indicator. The CLR reports that project representatives of both banks of implementation has been slow, with only one Nistru river. of four pilot sub-projects completed by the end of 2015. Additional Information provided by the country team reports that it is unlikely that the WBG is going to achieve these sub- projects. Mostly Achieved. Indicator A: Introduction to WBG Indicator A: the CLR reports that the target instruments was achieved. The November 2015 Aide Baseline: 32 (2015) Memoire reports that the WBG team Target: 40 Transnistrian and 15 introduced the program and activities right bank representatives (2015) conducted up to this date, during a visit to Tiraspol, in which 9 people participated. Partially Achieved. Indicator B: Training in international Indicator B: the November 2015 Aide Memoire procurement and best practices reports that a training of International Baseline: 0 (2013) Procurement Rules and Best Practices was Target: 20 Transnistrian undertaken for 21 participants. representatives Achieved. Indicator C: Training in public- Indicator C: the November 2015 Aide Memoire private partnerships (PPP) reports that a training on PPP was undertaken Baseline: 0 (2013) for 21 participants. Target: 20 Transnistrian Achieved. representatives (2015) Annexes CLR Review 36 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Moldova Planned and Actual Lending, FY14-FY17 Proposed Proposed Approved Approved Approved Closing Outcome Project ID Project Name Proposed FY Amount Amount IBRD IDA FY FY Rating (CPS) (PLR) Amount Amount Project Planned Under CPS/PLR 2014-2017 P143283 Development Policy Operation 2014 2014 2015 30.0 30.0 9.0 21.0 P132443 Moldova DH Efficiency Improvement 2014 2015 2020 20.0 40.5 40.5 0.0 LIR: MS DROPPED Moldova DH Efficiency Improvement Guarantee 2014 80.0 80.0 P144892 Health Transformation 2014 2014 2019 30.0 30.8 0.0 30.8 LIR: MS DROPPED DPO 2015 30.0 P144103 Second Competitiveness Enhancement Proj 2015 2015 2020 45.0 45.0 30.0 15.0 LIR: MS DROPPED Public Administration Reforms Project 2015 20.0 P127734 Strengthening PFM and Tax Administration 2015 2016 2022 20.0 20.0 12.6 7.4 LIR: MS P149555 DPO-2 2016 2017 2018 30.0 45.0 27.0 18.0 P150357 Lifeline Roads 2016 2016 2021 30.0 80.0 0.0 80.0 LIR: MS DROPPED Forest and Sustainable Land Management 2016 20.0 DROPPED AF GeT/Competitiveness 2016 10.0 DROPPED DPO 2017 30.0 30.0 P155968 Adaptation and Resilience to Climate change 2017 2017 2024 20.0 20.0 12.4 12.8 P157765 AF Agriculture Competitiveness 2017 2017 20.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 DROPPED AF Moldova Education Reform Project 2017 15.0 15.0 DROPPED Modernization of Government Services 2016 20.0 Total Planned 450.0 466.3 131.5 195.0 Project Unplanned Under CPS/PLR 2014-2017 P148125 DCRMP Additional Financing 2015 2.0 2.0 P154238 MACP Additional Financing 2015 12.0 12.0 Total Unplanned 0.0 14.0 0.0 14.0 On-Going Project during the CPS/PLR 2014-2017 P082916 PUB FIN MGMT TA 2005 2014 8.5 IEG: MU P090340 QUAL EDUC IN RUR AREAS OF MD 2006 2014 10.0 IEG: MU HEALTH SERVICES AND SOCIAL P095250 2007 2015 17.0 IEG: MS ASSISTANCE P107612 NATIONAL WATER SUPPLY & SANITATION 2008 2014 14.0 IEG: MS P115634 DISASTER & CLIMATE RISK MGT 2011 2017 10.0 LIR: MS AGRICULTURE COMPETITIVENESS PROJ. P118518 2012 2019 18.0 LIR: S (GEF) P120913 Strengthen SSN - Results 2011 2017 37.0 LIR: MS Annexes CLR Review 37 Independent Evaluation Group Proposed Proposed Approved Approved Approved Closing Outcome Project ID Project Name Proposed FY Amount Amount IBRD IDA FY FY Rating (CPS) (PLR) Amount Amount P121231 MOLDOVA eTRANSFORMATION 2011 2017 20.0 LIR: S P127388 EDUCATION REFORM 2013 2019 40.0 LIR: MS P143202 EMERGENCY AG SUPPORT 2013 2015 10.0 IEG: S P105602 MDTF FOR PUBLIC ADMIN REFORM 2007 2014 0.0 IEG: S Total On-Going 0.0 0.0 0.0 184.5 Source: Moldova CPS and PLR, WB Business Intelligence Table 2b.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 4/17/17 LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. * P105602 is under Trust Fund Annexes CLR Review 38 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Moldova, FY14-FY17 Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type P124627 MD Food Security Notes FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P133219 Water Sector Regionalization Review FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P146401 Electric Power Market Options FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P146476 Moldova Forest Policy Note FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P146486 Moldova FSAP Update FY15 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) P147451 Local Road Management and Finance FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P148369 Trade Study FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P148765 Moldova - ICR ROSC FY15 Insolvency Assessment (ROSC) P151113 District Heating and Electricity Tariff FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P151472 Moldova poverty assessment FY16 Poverty Assessment (PA) P157689 Moldova PFR2016 FY17 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P159050 Power System Interconnection Analysis FY17 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type P130155 Moldova #10151 Improv Access to Credit FY15 Technical Assistance P130304 Advice on Strengthening Public Invt. Mgm FY16 Technical Assistance P132485 LGAF TF Supervision FY14 Technical Assistance P143560 Accountancy curricula improvement MD FY14 Technical Assistance P145214 Social accountability in Forestry FY14 Technical Assistance P146628 Moldova PER 2014 FY14 Technical Assistance P146769 Knowledge for Confidence Building: MD/TN FY14 Technical Assistance P151413 Open Contracting in Moldova FY17 Technical Assistance P151612 Moldova PER 2015 FY15 Technical Assistance P152247 Pension reform FY15 Technical Assistance P152248 Health financing FY15 Technical Assistance P152249 Jobs and skills FY15 Technical Assistance P152911 Labor TA Moldova FY16 Technical Assistance P154652 Moldova Climate TA FY17 Technical Assistance P156336 Village Development Scoping Study FY16 Technical Assistance P157735 Energy Efficiency Transformation in DH FY17 Technical Assistance P157759 Advocacy for Pension Reform FY16 Technical Assistance P158221 Moldova: Governance Reform Scorecard FY17 Technical Assistance P158569 Transnistria: Knowledge Building Program FY17 Technical Assistance P159026 Fin sec regulator enforcement powers FY16 Technical Assistance P159027 State owned bank restructuring /governance FY16 Technical Assistance P159028 Securities registration reform FY16 Technical Assistance P159029 Assistance to Posta Moldova FY16 Technical Assistance P159030 FSAP Follow-up technical assistance FY16 Technical Assistance P159031 FS Monitoring FY16 Technical Assistance P160373 Moldova Country Gender Action Plan FY17 Technical Assistance Source: WB Business Intelligence 04/17/17 Annexes CLR Review 39 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Moldova Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY14-17 Project Approval Closing Approved Outcome Countries Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount Rating Tax Administration Modernization Moldova P127734 TF 17415 2014 2016 300,000 Project Moldova P154573 Moldova Skills Data Capacity Building TF A2984 2016 2019 300,000 Moldova P155968 Climate Adaptation Project TF A2544 2017 2018 350,000 Moldova P150357 Local Roads Improvement Project TF A0151 2015 2016 400,000 Modernization of Government Services Moldova P148537 TF A2299 2016 2017 247,000 in the Republic of Moldova Moldova P154541 Strengthening capacity - EMIS TF 19354 2016 2018 365,000 Implement participatory social Moldova P150873 accountability for better health in TF 18162 2015 2020 730,000 Moldova MD Second Competitiveness Moldova P144103 TF 16060 2014 2015 495,500 Enhancement Project Energy Conservation & Emissions Moldova P079303 Reduction Project (Community TF 15873 2014 2017 170,000 Development Carbon Fund) Integration of Children with Disabilities Moldova P144618 TF 14855 2014 2018 2,860,000 into Mainstream Schools Strengthening the Capacity of the Court Moldova P133554 TF 14332 2014 2016 1,000,000 of Accounts of Moldova (CoA) Empowered citizens enhancing Moldova P147607 TF 15859 2014 2019 696,955 accountability of Edu reform and quality Energy Conservation & Emissions Moldova P079303 Reduction Project (Community TF 12845 2013 2014 50,000 Development Carbon Fund) MOLDOVA AGRICULTURE Moldova P127125 TF 12145 2012 2017 4,435,500 COMPETITIVENESS PROJECT (GEF) MOLDOVA AGRICULTURE Moldova P118518 TF 14946 2014 2016 2,820,287 COMPETITIVENESS PROJECT (GEF) Strategic Planning of Health Moldova P131020 Information Management Reform in TF 12263 2013 2016 278,000 Moldova IDF Moldova P129112 Strengthening Public Procurement TF 12004 2012 2015 493,000 Moldova P128468 Moldova EFA FTI 3 Grant TF 11810 2012 2015 4,400,000 BIOGAS GENERATION FROM Moldova P120702 TF 99602 2011 2015 980,000 ANIMAL MANURE PILOT Moldova: Sida Trust Fund on Financing Moldova P125137 Energy Sector Reform and Efficiency TF 99139 2011 2015 2,551,063 Improvements Moldova P109459 Moldova Community Forestry Project TF 93088 2009 2014 975,900 GOVERNMENT`S CENTRAL PUBLIC Moldova P105602 TF 56601 2007 2014 11,450,000 IEG: S ADMINISTRATION REFORM (CPAR) Public Heating Biomass Systems in Moldovan Rural Communities Moldova P092516 TF 56111 2006 2017 1,969,036 (Community Development Carbon Fund Facility) Moldova P079314 Social Investment Fund 2 Project TF 93407 2009 2014 1,950,000 Moldova P077763 Soil Conservation Project TF 53065 2004 2014 4,550,000 Total 44,817,242 Source: Client Connection as of 04/17/17 ** IEG Validates RETF that are 5M and above Annexes CLR Review 40 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Moldova, FY14-17 Total Exit IEG Risk to Country Proj ID Project name Evaluated IEG Outcome FY DO ($M) MODERATELY 2014 Moldova P082916 PUB FIN MGMT TA 4.7 SIGNIFICANT UNSATISFACTORY MODERATELY NEGLIGIBLE 2014 Moldova P090340 QUAL EDUC IN RUR AREAS OF MD 11.9 UNSATISFACTORY TO LOW 2014 Moldova P105602 MDTF FOR PUBLIC ADMIN REFORM 0.0 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT NATIONAL WATER SUPPLY & MODERATELY 2014 Moldova P107612 13.1 SIGNIFICANT SANITATION SATISFACTORY HEALTH SERVICES AND SOCIAL MODERATELY 2015 Moldova P095250 27.5 MODERATE ASSISTANCE SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2015 Moldova P143202 EMERGENCY AG SUPPORT 7.5 MODERATE SATISFACTORY Total 64.7 Source: AO Key IEG Ratings as of 04/14/17 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Moldova and Comparators, FY14-17 Total Total RDO % RDO % Outcome Outcome Region Evaluated Evaluated Moderate or Lower Moderate or Lower % Sat ($) % Sat (No) ($M) (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Moldova 64.7 6 74.3 66.7 72.5 50.0 ECA 9,527.6 81 94.4 75.3 62.0 49.4 World 50,931.6 582 86.4 74.1 57.1 43.9 Source: WB AO as of 04/14/17 * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Moldova and Comparators, FY14-17 Fiscal year 2014 2015 2016 2017 Ave FY14-17 Moldova # Proj 14 12 15 14 14 # Proj At Risk 2 2 2 2 % Proj At Risk 14.3 16.7 13.3 - 11.1 Net Comm Amt 236.6 265.0 364.7 342.7 302 Comm At Risk 57.0 67.8 41.2 55 % Commit at Risk 24.1 25.6 11.3 - 15.2 ECA # Proj 280 290 279 298 287 # Proj At Risk 33 34 44 41 38 % Proj At Risk 11.8 11.7 15.8 13.8 13.3 Net Comm Amt 26,927.9 26,544.5 27,637.3 27,282.5 27,098 Comm At Risk 2,635.4 3,533.8 4,350.5 5,288.3 3,952 % Commit at Risk 9.8 13.3 15.7 19.4 14.6 World # Proj 2,048 2,022 1,975 2,100 2,036 # Proj At Risk 306 349 313 311 320 % Proj At Risk 14.9 17.3 15.8 14.8 15.7 Net Comm Amt 192,610.1 201,045.2 220,331.5 230,542.3 211,132 Comm At Risk 40,933.5 45,987.7 44,244.9 48,103.3 44,817 % Commit at Risk 21.3 22.9 20.1 20.9 21.3 Source: WB BI as of 05/18/17 Annexes CLR Review 41 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Moldova, FY14-17 Fiscal Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 Overall Result Moldova Disbursement Ratio (%) 30.2 27.0 30.5 15.9 24.7 Inv Disb in FY 38.5 20.4 46.8 31.9 137.6 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 127.5 75.7 153.5 201.3 558.0 ECA Disbursement Ratio (%) 22.8 23.5 17.5 15.5 19.5 Inv Disb in FY 2,612.0 2,664.4 2,275.6 2,271.3 9,823.3 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 11,467.5 11,342.1 13,028.9 14,631.8 50,470.2 World Disbursement Ratio (%) 20.8 21.8 19.5 14.0 18.9 Inv Disb in FY 20,757.7 21,853.7 21,152.9 15,121.0 78,885.3 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 99,854.3 100,344.9 108,600.3 108,055.9 416,855.4 * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. AO disbursement ratio table as of 04/17/17 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Moldova, FY14-17 Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer FY14 65,352,081.6 22,684,154.2 42,667,927.5 888,514.5 3,950,984.1 37,828,429.0 FY15 18,405,952.2 20,157,894.7 (1,751,942.4) 1,122,019.9 3,982,679.3 (6,856,641.7) FY16 56,629,160.0 14,483,384.2 42,145,775.8 1,423,810.5 4,173,780.8 36,548,184.5 FY17 78,164,822.3 8,353,886.8 69,810,935.4 1,609,262.1 3,262,941.8 64,938,731.6 Report Total 218,552,016.1 65,679,319.8 152,872,696.3 5,043,607.0 15,370,386.0 132,458,703.4 World Bank Client Connection 04/17/17 Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid Development Partners 2014 2015 Austria 4.04 6.78 Belgium 0.01 0.01 Canada 0.04 0.51 Czech Republic 4.26 4.07 Denmark 5.43 5.53 Finland 1.13 1.39 France 5.1 4.46 Germany 13.82 10.36 Greece 0.47 0.44 Hungary 0.06 0.1 Ireland 0.04 .. Italy 0.22 0.23 Japan 23.46 37.01 Korea 0.45 0.48 Luxembourg 0.22 0.1 Netherlands 0.43 0.33 Norway 6.72 5.64 Poland 2.68 2.46 Portugal 0.01 0 Slovak Republic 0.58 0.85 Slovenia 0.42 0.15 Spain 0.02 0.02 Sweden 14.23 11.61 Annexes CLR Review 42 Independent Evaluation Group Development Partners 2014 2015 Switzerland 13.14 15.45 United Kingdom 2.25 1.97 United States 124.66 88.8 DAC Countries, Total 223.88 198.75 EU Institutions 153.08 70.29 International Monetary Fund, Total -24.1 -30.22 IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) -24.1 -30.22 Regional Development Banks, Total 3.09 2.31 Council of Europe Development Bank [CEB] 3.09 2.31 United Nations, Total 4.05 5.89 International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] 0.21 0.07 IFAD 1.4 2.99 International Labour Organisation [ILO] 0.07 0.33 UNAIDS 0.04 0.06 UNDP 0.58 0.36 UNFPA 0.45 0.42 UNICEF 0.91 0.97 World Health Organisation [WHO] 0.38 0.7 World Bank Group 30.94 30.21 World Bank, Total 30.94 30.21 International Development Association [IDA] 30.94 30.21 Multilateral, Total 180.19 90.58 Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization [GAVI] 0.82 1.18 Global Environment Facility [GEF] 2.62 2.84 Global Fund 7.56 5.98 OSCE 2.13 2.11 Other Multilateral, Total 13.13 12.11 Bulgaria .. 0.31 Estonia 1 0.99 Israel 0.93 0.79 Kuwait (KFAED) -0.26 .. Latvia 0.16 0.12 Lithuania 0.07 0.07 Romania 56 18.44 Russia .. 0.68 Turkey 3.53 1.83 Memo: Private Donors, Total 3.58 2.97 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation 3.58 2.97 Non-DAC Countries, Total 61.44 23.24 Development Partners Total 465.51 312.56 Source: OECD Stat, [DAC2a] as of 04/17/17 * No data available after 2015 Annexes CLR Review 43 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Moldova, 2014 – 2016 Moldova ECS World Series Name 2014 2015 2016 Average 2014-2016 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 4.8 (0.5) .. 2.1 1.7 2.7 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 4.9 (0.4) .. 2.2 1.2 1.5 GNI per capita, PPP (current 5,540.0 5,400.0 .. 5,470.0 29,886.0 15,440.1 international $) GNI per capita, Atlas method (current 2,560.0 2,240.0 .. 2,400.0 24,958.1 10,726.9 US$) (Millions) Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 5.1 9.7 .. 7.4 0.5 2.0 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 15.5 14.4 .. 14.9 2.2 3.9 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 17.2 14.4 .. 15.8 25.5 27.6 Services, etc., value added (% of 67.3 71.2 .. 69.2 72.3 68.5 GDP) Gross fixed capital formation (% of 24.7 24.2 .. 24.5 19.8 23.4 GDP) Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) (10.9) (8.2) .. -9.6 23.4 24.8 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of 41.5 43.3 .. 42.4 41.9 29.9 GDP) Imports of goods and services (% of 78.5 74.2 .. 76.4 38.7 29.2 GDP) Current account balance (% of GDP) (7.1) (6.3) .. -6.7 External debt stocks (% of GNI) 74.5 91.1 .. 82.8 Total debt service (% of GNI) 6.7 6.1 .. 6.4 Total reserves in months of imports 4.2 4.4 .. 4.3 6.8 12.9 Fiscal Accounts /1 General government revenue (% of 37.6 37.4 37.3 37.4 GDP) General government total expenditure 38.9 38.6 38.3 38.6 (% of GDP) General government net (1.3) (1.1) (1.0) -1.2 lending/borrowing (% of GDP) General government gross debt (% of 20.8 19.3 17.8 19.3 GDP) Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 71.5 71.6 .. 71.5 77.2 71.6 Immunization, DPT (% of children 90.0 87.0 .. 88.5 93.3 85.6 ages 12-23 months) Improved sanitation facilities (% of 76.4 76.4 .. 76.4 93.1 67.3 population with access) Improved water source (% of 81.4 81.4 .. 81.4 96.1 84.3 population with access) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live 13.9 13.6 .. 13.8 9.9 32.2 births) Education School enrollment, preprimary (% 83.8 83.9 .. 83.8 74.6 44.0 gross) School enrollment, primary (% gross) 93.1 92.4 .. 92.7 103.3 104.6 Annexes CLR Review 44 Independent Evaluation Group Moldova ECS World Series Name 2014 2015 2016 Average 2014-2016 School enrollment, secondary (% 87.3 86.1 .. 106.0 75.1 gross) Population Population, total 3,556,397 3,554,108 .. 3,555,253 905,730,844 7,303,698,844 Population growth (annual %) (0.1) (0.1) .. -0.1 0.5 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 44.9 45.0 .. 45.0 70.8 53.6 Source: DDP as of 06/17/17 *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, November 2016 ** No data available for Moldova after 2015 Annexes CLR Review 45 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Moldova Investments Committed in FY14-FY17 Project Cmt Project Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Primary Sector Name Net Comm ID FY Status Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity 34474 2015 Active Finance & Insurance G 155,000 30,000 - 30,000 20,000 - 10,000 - 10,000 Sub-Total 155,000 30,000 - 30,000 20,000 - 10,000 - 10,000 Investments Committed pre-FY14 but active during FY14-17 Project CMT Project Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Primary Sector Name Net Comm ID FY Status Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity 31432 2013 Active Food & Beverages G 95,000 30,000 0 30,000 - - 30,000 0 30,000 33927 2013 Active Agriculture and Forestry E 252 - 252 252 - - 252 252 252 Nonmetallic Mineral 29444 2012 Active G 29,300 10,000 - 10,000 - - 10,000 - 10,000 Product Manufacturing 31689 2012 Active Electric Power E 3,000 3,000 - 3,000 - - 3,000 - 3,000 29484 2011 Active Public Administration E 10,000 10,000 - 10,000 - - 10,000 - 10,000 28636 2010 Active Electric Power G 40,000 15,000 - 15,000 - - 15,000 - 15,000 26297 2008 Active Food & Beverages E 22,100 5,000 5,000 10,000 - - 10,000 5,000 10,000 25282 2007 Active Finance & Insurance E 1,000 53 - 53 - - 53 - 53 10533 2001 Active Information E 125 - 125 125 - - 125 125 125 10898 2001 Active Information E 175 - 175 175 - - 175 175 175 10128 2000 Active Information E 73 - 73 73 - - 73 73 73 9272 1999 Active Information G 41,250 15,000 1,250 16,250 1,286 - 14,965 1,250 14,965 Sub-Total 242,275 88,053 6,875 94,928 1,286 - 93,642 6,875 93,642 TOTAL 397,275 118,053 6,875 124,928 21,286 - 103,642 6,875 103,642 Source: IFC-MIS Extract as of 1/31/17 Annexes CLR Review 46 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Moldova Advisory Services Approved in FY14-17 Primary Project Impl Impl Total Funds, Project Name Project Status Business ID Start FY End FY US$ Line 600467 MD ICR 2016 2019 ACTIVE TAC 3,200,000 Resource Efficiency (REF) 599133 2015 2017 TERMINATED CAS 1,742,000 for SMEs Sub-Total 4,942,000 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY14 but active during FY14-17 Primary Project Impl Impl Total Funds, Project Name Project Status Business ID Start FY End FY US$ Line Balkans and Caucases 597547 Financial Infrastructure 2013 2018 HOLD FAM 1,086,945 Program Investment Climate Reform 576047 2012 2016 ACTIVE TAC 3,499,265 Moldova 27578 Moldova Health 2011 2016 CLOSED CAS 1,083,361 Sub-Total 5,669,571 TOTAL 10,611,571 Source: IFC AS Data as of 3-28-17 Annex Table 14: IFC net commitment activity in Moldova, FY14 - FY17 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total MAS Industry Group 10,000,000 10,000,000 Source: IFC MIS as of 5/5/17 Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Activities in Moldova, 2014-2017 Project Max Gross ID Contract Enterprise FY Sector Investor Status Issuance ProCredit Group Central Bank 9985 Mandatory Reserves Coverage, 2015 Active Banking Germany 8 Moldova I.C.S. Raiffeisen Leasing S.R.L. 7552 2014 Active Leasing Romania 7 (RLMD) 10253 I.C.S. Raiffeisen Leasing S.R.L. 2013 Active Leasing Romania 6 10253 I.C.S. Raiffeisen Leasing S.R.L. 2012 Active Leasing Romania 7 ProCredit Group Central Bank 9985 2011 Active Banking Germany 4 Mandatory Reserves Coverage Total 31 Source: MIGA 5-4-17