53209 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands Timor-LesTe CounTry AssessmenT GFDRR Global FaCIlITY FoR DISaSTER REDUCTIoN aND RECoVERY Acronyms and Abbreviations AusAiD Australian Agency for International Development CCA Climate change adaptation Drm Disaster risk management Drr Disaster risk reduction eu European Union FAo Food and Agriculture Organization GDP Gross domestic product GeF Global Environment Facility GFDrr Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery Gis Geographic Information System HFA Hyogo Framework for Action isDr International Strategy for Disaster Reduction nAP National Action Plan (for DRM) nAPA National Adaptation Plan of Action (for CCA) nDes National Directorate of Environmental Services nDieA National Directorate of International Environmental Affairs nDmD National Disaster Management Directorate nDrm National Disaster Risk Management (Policy) nGo Nongovernmental organization PPP Purchasing power parity TsA Transitional Strategic Appeal ­ Reference UNDP 2008 unDP United Nations Development Program unFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change usAiD United States Agency for International Development Contents introduction ............................................................................................................ 4 Country Context .................................................................................................... 6 Key Country Findings ......................................................................................... 8 Detailed Country Assessment ........................................................................ 12 Legal framework and policies, and their effectiveness ............................ 12 Inter-government and agency coordination ................................................ 15 Planning and budgetary processes.............................................................. 16 Knowledge, data, tools.................................................................................... 17 Vulnerability and risk assessments ............................................................... 20 Monitoring and evaluation .............................................................................. 21 Awareness raising and capacity building.................................................... 22 Coordination among donors and key stakeholders .................................. 23 opportunities for investment ......................................................................... 25 Annex A. Proposals for support in Timor-Leste ..................................... 27 Annex B. Project Team and Persons Consulted ..................................... 30 references and select Bibliography ........................................................... 31 4 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands introduction T he World Bank policy note, "Not If, But When," reports that have done that and complements these shows the Pacific island countries to be among with suggestions for taking the necessary steps. the world's most vulnerable to natural disasters. Since 1950, natural disasters have directly affected The goal of the report is to deepen the understanding more than 3.4 million people and led to more than in the gaps, opportunities, and needs at the national 1,700 reported deaths in the region (excluding Papua level toward stronger operational disaster and climate New Guinea). In the 1990s alone, reported natural di- risk management in the Pacific islands and to link sasters cost the Pacific Islands Region US$2.8 billion closely to other ongoing and future efforts by other (in real 2004 value). The traditional approach of "wait donors and stakeholders (such as the SOPAC regional and mitigate" is a far worse strategy than proactively initiatives following the Madang Framework and the managing risks. National Action Plans) to ensure synergy and avoid duplication. The assessment focuses on practical, pro- The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA) active measures that Timor-Leste can take to inform lists the following 5 key priority areas for action: its national development policies and plans and to (1) Ensure risk reduction is a national and a local pri- strengthen its capacity to reduce the adverse conse- ority with a strong institutional basis for imple- quence of natural hazards and climate change, as it mentation; relates to risk reduction. The linkage of these two ar- (2) Identify, assess, and monitor disaster risks and en- eas mainly includes managing the impacts of extreme hance early warning; weather events, variability in precipitation and storm (3) Use knowledge, innovation, and education to surges, and sea-level rise. build a culture of safety and resilience at all lev- els; This assessment highlights aspects such as the cur- (4) Reduce underlying risk factors; and rent country status; gaps, opportunities, and barriers (5) Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective re- related to (a) national policies, strategies, plans, and sponse at all levels. activities to manage natural hazards; (b) the enabling environment for a comprehensive risk management This Timor-Leste assessment represents a stocktak- approach to natural hazards; and (c) the capacity to ing exercise to review the extent to which disaster undertake such a comprehensive approach, including risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adapta- institutional arrangements, human resources, public tion (CCA) activities have progressed in the island awareness, information, and national budget alloca- country. The assessment goes on to identify gaps or tions. It also reviews and identifies the need for in- impediments to achieving the HFA principles and formed policy choices, improved decisionmaking pro- identifies opportunities for future DRR/CCA invest- cesses, strengthened regulations, and legislative and ments that would be timely, cost-effective, and imple- policy changes required to support proposed country- mentable within a three-year timeframe. The focus is level activities. on risk reduction, rather than post-disaster recovery and response. While some sector-specific activities are With respect to achievement of the first HFA priority, addressed in the assessment of national and local gov- there is clear evidence of systemic difficulties among ernment policies and institutional arrangements, the many Pacific island countries in establishing an en- report does not provide a comprehensive summary of abling environment and promoting a cross-sector sector-by-sector activities. Instead, it refers to other focus for DRR and CCA activities. Since the avail- Timor-Leste Country Assessment 5 able evidence shows that ad hoc, externally driven ap- climate change adaption. It follows with sections on proaches have not provided satisfactory results so far, Key Findings and a Detailed Country Assessment the HFA emphasis upon a strong government com- that focuses on some of the components relevant to mitment and action is one of the primary and early HFA achievement: adopting and mainstreaming poli- challenges to be surmounted in achieving the goals cies, data and knowledge, risk and vulnerability assess- of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction ments, monitoring and evaluation, awareness raising (ISDR). and capacity building, planning and budgetary pro- cesses, and coordination. From this assessment, pos- World Bank experience in countries with similar chal- sible opportunities for addressing the identified gaps lenges shows that while it is important to have a clear and needs in line with the HFA are presented in the long-term vision, given the institutional, financial, final section. The proposals for future support are pre- and resource constraints, more modest "bottom up" sented in Annex A. approaches tend to have better results. Also, taking existing investment programs and incorporating sim- Funding for this assessment was provided by the ple key DRR/CCA elements demand relatively fewer Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery efforts and resources and yield results that can lay the (GFDRR), which is in partnership with the UN In- foundation for more complex, follow-up stages. Get- ternational Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) ting stakeholders to coordinate their activities in line system to support the Hyogo Framework for Action. with the 2005 Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness Other partners who support the GFDRR work to im- also appears to be relatively easier with such a modest prove livelihoods and protect lives include Australia, starting point than with formal efforts aimed at com- Canada, Denmark, European Commission, Finland, prehensive "top down" coordination. France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Nor- way, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, This assessment begins by explaining the context of USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, and the country in relation to disaster risk reduction and the World Bank. v 6 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands Country Context T imor-Leste lies in the Lesser Sunda Islands at The recent history of Timor-Leste has a significant the eastern end of the Indonesian archipelago. relation to its economic and hazard vulnerability. It is The 15,007 square kilometers of rugged terrain one of the world's newest post-conflict nations, rec- that constitutes Timor-Leste encompasses the eastern ognized as an independent democratic state in 2002. half of the island of Timor (Figure 1). Also included are After a period of civil and militia disturbance that the Oecussi (Ambeno) region on the northwest portion required major international intervention, the with- of the island of Timor and the islands of Pulau Atauro drawal of Indonesian authority was accompanied by and Pulau Jaco. The western part of Timor (excluding the destruction of about 90 percent of the new na- the Timor-Leste enclave of Oecussi) is part of the In- tion's physical infrastructure, and the lack of human donesian province of Nusa Tenggara Timur. Adminis- capacity with the technical and administrative skills tratively, the country is divided into 13 districts with necessary to rebuild a fledgling nation. The rebuilding a highly centralized national government. The Gov- process in all areas of public and private endeavor is ernment plans to develop capacity in the districts, but continuing and is being delivered with considerable structures are weak and resources limited. national spirit and governmental and community skill, despite insurmountable capacity issues. The 2004 national census estimated Timor-Leste's population at 925,000 (a 2008 ADB estimate is over In 2007 the country's GDP/PPP was estimated at 1 million). Dili, the largest city with a population of about US$2,000 per capita, with unemployment es- 51,000 in 2003, has experienced the influx of over timated at about 50 percent. Agriculture, which ac- 30,000 internally displaced people following the civil counts for about 80 percent of employment (with only disturbances of 2006. In total, the crisis led to the 8.2 percent of arable land in the country), suffers from displacement of 150,000 persons, with a number of seed shortages, locust infestations, and poor weather the displacement camps sited on the vulnerable fore- conditions (UNDP 2008). Agricultural production, shore of Dili. most of which is for local markets, is vulnerable to climatic variability, extreme weather events, insect and rodent infestations, and bacterial plant diseases Figure 1. map of the Timor-Leste Timor-Leste possesses magnificent natural and cul- tural assets that contribute to the country's tourism growth. Ecotourism and diving-based tourist activities are making a significant contribution to the national and local economies. Tourism is seen as a potentially major area of economic development that could pro- vide much needed employment. At the moment, due to the persistent challenges for Timor-Leste popula- tion and authorities, the country is affected by one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in the Asia Pacific Region. Arguably, the economic viability of the country will be Source: Asian Development Bank. a key factor in assessing the nation's ability to respond Timor-Leste Country Assessment 7 to disasters emanating from natural hazard and hu- 2008). In early to mid-January and mid-February man conditions (food and water security, and public 2008, two active phases of extreme monsoonal storm and personal health). The Asian Development Bank activity associated with La Niņa produced localized (ADB 2008) reports a deep systemic problem with wind, flood, and landslide, impacting agriculture, food availability with 73 percent of households expe- roads, bridges, and private homes in all 13 districts of riencing at least one month of low food consumption Timor-Leste. In the 2008 wet season, 3,600 houses in 2008. Compounded by the effects of natural hazard were destroyed across all the districts. The long rainy disasters, socio-economic vulnerability is further chal- season, combined with La Niņa, triggered substantial lenged by low incomes in rural areas, high population efforts from the Government and the international growth rates, and pressures for rapid urbanization. community to improve risk reduction preparedness in the internal displacement camps in Dili and wider Timor-Leste is located in an area of high seismic communities in all districts. activity and is exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis. Earthquakes are common and cause significant dam- At relatively the same time of the catastrophic weath- age; where slopes are unstable, earthquakes can trigger er event (November 2007 to January 2008), three extensive landslips with a negative impact on peoples' districts--Covalima, Bobonaro, and Oecusse--expe- lives, livestock, roads, infrastructure, and property. Ac- rienced a re-emergence of locust infestations, with a cess roads and bridges are left impassable after regu- simultaneous infestation in Indonesian West Timor. lar damage from flooding, earthquakes, and landslips. The inability to quickly address the locust problem re- Across the nation, pockets of housing are regularly sulted in widely spreading and dramatically increasing destroyed and damaged. National resources are called damage. The recurrence of locust infestation caused upon almost weekly to provide emergency relief and crop failures, compounded by drought and flood. shelter and to repair roads and infrastructure. Adding to the severity, winds and landslides resulted in crop damage. Seasonal monsoon rains and strong winds or cyclones besiege Timor-Leste and regularly damage and destroy Climate change issues arising from increasing vari- homes, particularly in the rural areas. The country is af- ability of climate extremes include (a) the potential fected by two sets of monsoonal conditions: the North- for increasing food security problems, (b) increasing west or wet monsoon that brings storms and flooding susceptibility of forests to degradation and related and the Southeast or dry monsoon that brings strong impacts on watersheds and slope stability, and (c) the winds to the south of the island. Wet and dry seasons extended incidence of diseases and increasing coastal vary in length from the northern and southern zones vulnerability. Climate change is acknowledged to as a product of the mountainous ridge through the have the potential to exacerbate all weather-related center of the country. Timor-Leste has three climate hazards (including slow onset conditions such as zones that can be delineated on the basis of topography drought). Scientific understanding of the nature and (northern coastal and lowland zone, mountain zone, incidence of these changes in Timor-Leste remains and southern coastal and lowland zone). very limited. v The island of Timor is also greatly influenced by La Niņa and El Niņo climate events, with La Niņa short- ening the dry season to 1 to 2 months only (UNDP 8 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands Key Country Findings C ollectively, the socio-economic and socio- risk reduction and climate change adaptation should cultural conditions in Timor-Leste are key recognize and accommodate this situation with prag- factors to be taken into account when con- matic and sustained support to develop well-grounded sidering how the nation can implement disaster risk and sustainable programs. Uncoordinated ad hoc pro- reduction measures and address the challenges of grams ultimately result in little capacity development. adapting to climatic variability and change. Disaster risk reduction is a core theme in strategies for reduc- A review of evident risk reduction activities in Timor- ing the socio-cultural vulnerabilities that Timor-Leste Leste resulted in the following key findings: has inherited. (a) The country is very vulnerable to hazards-- floods, landslides, drought, pests, earthquakes-- but has The UNDP (2008) identifies main areas to be ad- little capacity for response. Countrywide response dressed by central and local authorities of the coun- is centrally managed through the National Disaster try: Management Directorate, which is overburdened n Build up their emergency preparedness and re- with frequent occurrences . Slow, centralized re- sponse systems (central and decentralized); sponse exacerbates the impact of disasters. n Help the population to be better aware and to (b) Government commitment and understanding of adopt mitigation behavior; and disaster risk reduction and climate change adap- tation is strong, which is an encouraging start for n Put in place regional control, prevention, and co- an enabling environment. Limited acknowledg- operation mechanisms. ment of the needs for DRR/CCA application is a strong impediment. Just seven-years old, Timor-Leste, as a country after decades of conflict, has weak infrastructure, limited hu- (c) At the senior government official level, there is an man and budgetary capacity, and enormous vulnerabil- acknowledgment of the need for external support ity to natural hazards, including the potential effects of within a 5-10 year program. climate change. In a short time, the Government has (d) Coordination across government agencies for di- demonstrated its commitment to dealing with these is- saster risk reduction and climate change adapta- sues by adopting the National Development Plan, the tion is ensured by a policy framework and good IV Constitutional Plan, and the Budget Plan. In 2008, capacity at the senior government level. However, it adopted an ambitious National Disaster Risk Man- the frameworks are recent; there is limited capac- agement (DRM) Policy and is fulfilling its commit- ity for application, and limited arrangements for ments to the United Nations Framework Convention DRR/CCA coordination. on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by submitting the Initial National Communication, as well as developing (e) There is limited capacity to deliver services a National Adaptation Program for Action (NAPA). within Government departments at the middle and junior levels. With over a decade of internal Despite Government commitment resulting in sound conflict, opportunities for education and training policy development and senior-level backing at depart- have been limited. However, enthusiasm to devel- ment levels, the DRR/CCA activities are constrained op enabling environments and internal capacity is by critical staff capacity at the middle operating levels encouraging. It may require a 5-10 year period to of all Government departments. Planning for disaster develop full capacity. Timor-Leste Country Assessment 9 (f ) In addressing climate change adaptation, the The development of a pragmatic institutional frame- National Directorate of Environmental Services work for disaster risk management (involving gov- (NDES) and National Directorate of Interna- ernment and stakeholder agencies across all levels) tional Environmental Affairs (NDIEA), as well and the preparation of a coordinated 5-year program as the important Meteorological Service face ca- would give effect to the National Disaster Risk Man- pacity limitations. agement Policy. Such a program should embrace (a) development of legislation; (b) establishment of ar- (g) District-level structures for disaster management rangements at the national, district, and village levels; are scarce. The NGO activity in some districts at (c) development of capacity at the organization and the suco (village) level--focused on disaster man- community level; (d) enhancement of hazard moni- agement preparedness rather than disaster risk reductio--lack resources. There is no focus on toring and analysis; and (e) development of disaster climate change adaptation at the district level. management and risk reduction plans across sectors and communities. For example, addressing the acute (h) Widespread social, infrastructure, health, and hazard risk from flooding for low-lying coastal villag- food vulnerabilities in Timor-Leste are exacer- es adjacent to rivers through the adoption of simple bated by hazard and climate risks, lack of capacity, river management measures following floods requires and weak governance arrangements at the operat- community-level planning. ing level. (i) There is no credible monitoring or analysis of The UNDP-supported National Adaptation Plan of hazards and climate changes. The country con- Action for climate change adaptation will identify areas tinues to depend on information and warnings for activity over the next 18 months. In the mean- from Indonesia, Australia, and Japan. time, assistance could be provided for professional and capacity development, as well as the development of (j) Many donors and NGOs are seeking to pro- NAPA and its coordination with DRR programs. vide support. Apart from the Community-Based DRM Working Group, there appears to be little This assessment has identified the following four pri- coordination among donors and no leadership ority areas where investment is needed: mechanism. n Development of a simple policy and institutional (k) The profusion of donors and NGOs seeking re- framework and organizational mechanism for di- sponses to information requests and international saster risk management and climate change adap- reporting is met with skepticism. In the absence tation; of greater stakeholder coordination, the available competent managers in government tend to devote n Development of meteorological monitoring ca- time to responding to diverse queries, rather than pability with data management, and analysis and planning and addressing emergency situations. forecasting systems and skills; n Support for nongovernmental community-based Risk reduction should focus on integrating disaster risk DRM program at the district, sub-district, and village reduction into national policies and programs within levels within a structured institutional framework; effective and sustainable governance structures, rather than adding externally driven short-term projects when n Development and support for a range of profes- there is no internal capacity to engage with them. sional development initiatives for cross-sector staff 10 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands in areas of hazards, vulnerability assessment, and level, the remaining priority areas, further discussed in organizational management for disaster risk reduc- the next sections, still require attention and resources. tion and climate change adaptation. A summary of gaps or impediments to effective risk re- Due to the plethora of vulnerabilities faced by the duction, and areas of opportunity for improvement are country and its weak capacity, the Hyogo Framework summarized in Table 1. A more detailed explanation for Action, still needs to be applied in its entirety in of possible opportunities for addressing the identified Timor-Leste. While the first of the five HFA priority gaps and impediments within the HFA are presented areas--ensuring risk reduction as a national and local in the final section of this assessment report. Proposals priority, with a strong institutional basis for imple- for future support are presented in Annex A. v mentation--is being addressed, at least at the national Timor-Leste Country Assessment 11 Table 1. summary of the Key Gaps and opportunities for enhancing Drr and CCA for Timor-Leste situation Gap or impediment opportunities Timor-Leste adopted a strong DRM Lack of institutional framework Provide support for the development policy position but has yet to establish to support DRM and CCA of a simple policy and institutional an institutional framework to support development programs framework for DRM suitable also for CCA. development programs across across sectors and levels of sectors and levels of government into government. communities. Coordinate with the UNDP NAPA. Lack of coordinated DRM For CCA, Initial National development program. Communication has just been submitted and coordinating advisory Lack of CCA policy committees to support the NAPA and advisory structures development over next 18 months are for coordinating CCA being established. development and NAPA preparation. Government sectors do not adequately support disaster response or risk reduction in their area of responsibility. Diverse hazards and risks impose No basic monitoring system Provide hazard information and threats to human life, public and is in place for metrological, monitoring support from Australia and private infrastructure and property in hydrological, and geophysical others, while local capacity is built. Timor-Leste. Hazard monitoring and data collection. assessment is inadequate to support support the building of professional DRR and CCA activity. Limited professional capacity competency in the meteorological, to undertake monitoring and hydrological, and geophysical fields to data analysis. ensure that Timor-Leste can build risk reduction measures based on scientific Lack of central system for evidence. information management, storage, and access on support the development of Drr geophysical, climatological, and CCA knowledge and information hydrological, and health systems that reflect the emerging hazards. institutional needs and that can be accessed at district, sub-district, village, and community levels. Risk reduction awareness and training Awareness, attitudes and strengthen community-based programs have been initiated at district, behavior towards DRR/CCA is awareness and capacity building, sub-district, village, and community limited at district, sub-district, including education and efforts to change levels. village, and community levels. attitudes and behavior toward DRR/CCA and in building and maintaining resilience of environmental, social, and economic systems to reduce vulnerability. Weather-related hazard risks (both The nature and incidence of Develop and support a range of rapid and slow onset) are creating increasing climate variability professional development initiatives vulnerability to food security and in Timor-Leste is not well for DRM, CCA, and cross-sector staff in water supplies, which are likely to be understood. Initial assessments areas of hazards, vulnerability assessment exacerbated by increasing climate are needed for informed CCA and organizational management for DRR variability. interventions. and CCA. 12 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands Detailed Country Assessment Legal framework and policies, and n Identification of risk zones, their effectiveness T n Creation of early warning systems particularly relat- he broad responsibility for various aspects of ing to rains and droughts, vulnerability and risk assessments is spread across the Ministry of Social Solidarity and the n Development of human resource capacity in the area Ministry for Economy and Development and their of disaster risk management, associated departments. Within the Ministry of So- n Ability to provide immediate response when disasters cial Solidarity, the National Disaster Management Di- occur, and rectorate (NDMD) is responsible to the Secretary of State for Social Assistance and National Disasters and n Establish inter-sectoral coordination mechanisms to the focal point for management of the overall response respond to natural disasters. to catastrophic events. The National Directorate for Environmental Services (NDES) and the associated The NDMD is responsible for implementing the National Directorate for International Environment program. In March 2008, the Government adopted Affairs (NDIEA), within the Ministry for Economy the National Disaster Risk Management (NDRM) and Development, are responsible for climate change Policy, which covers a shift from traditional crisis re- adaptation and mitigation matters. sponse management to disaster, conflict, and climate change risk reduction. It provides general framework Both Directorates face a critical capacity issue in and activities of disaster risk management; and the meeting their international commitments for climate integration of activities across all sectors addressing change. The NDES lacks district structures to address economic, social, and environmental development and local climate change issues. strengthening community capacity and reducing vul- nerabilities. Prepared with international support, the The Government of Timor-Leste has clearly recog- NDRM Policy is comprehensive and ambitious with nized the paramount importance of introducing a the following objectives: pro-active strategic and programmatic approach to planning for land, water, energy, health, and educa- To engage all levels of society; promote the tion in order to attain sustainable development. One integration of disaster management in dif- of the outcomes of the strategic approach is the cre- ferent government development programs; ation of the national Climate Change Focal Point in improve disaster risk management in all sec- the NDIEA. The Ministry for Economy and Devel- tors at all institutional and operational lev- opment is promoting the development of coordinated els; achieve financial sustainability through national and sector policies for addressing climatic the use of greater resources; and preserve our variability and change. However, this still-developing natural environment to guarantee peace for initiative requires appropriate resources. all Timorese people. The commitments of the Government of Timor- The NDRM Policy specifically provides for launch- Leste toward disaster risk management are embedded ing the Disaster Operation Center and Departments in the IV Constitutional Government Program of for Preparedness and Formation, Prevention and the Council of Ministers for 2007-2012. In this Mitigation, and Response and Recovery. Although document, the Government identifies the following the NDMD has recently doubled in size to 8 staff, essential priorities to be addressed: it lacks the skills for disaster and risk management. Timor-Leste Country Assessment 13 The NDMD director noted the difficulty in focusing gets in response to activities. The new NDRM Policy is on hazard reduction since the Directorate is continu- expected to clarify responsibilities of the departments. ously addressing local disaster-related problems. It is expected that the NDMD focus will be broader in A pragmatic institutional framework (involving gov- 2009 with more resources available for district-level ernment and stakeholder agencies across all levels) activities. could give effect to the NDRM Policy. Such a pro- gram would include the development of legislation; The NDRM Policy also provides for disaster man- the establishment of simple but explicit arrangements agement committees at district, sub-district, and vil- at the national, district, and suco (village) levels; sup- lage (or suco) levels. District Disaster Management port to the development of capacity at the organiza- Committees are given decisionmaking responsibilities tion and community level; the enhancement of haz- during disasters. District Administrators are desig- ard monitoring and analysis; and the development of nated as District Disaster Coordinators during these disaster management and risk reduction plans across periods. At the sub-district level, the Sub-District sectors and communities. Administrator and suco chiefs and village leaders are assigned the responsibilities. In the area of climate change adaptation, policies and institutional arrangements are being established. The Representing strong Government commitment, the Ministry of Economy and Development, through the NDRM Policy establishes an Inter-Ministerial Com- NDES and NDIEA, submitted the first Initial Na- mission for Disaster Risk Management. This Com- tional Communication in 2008 and established sever- mission comprises 12 ministers and vice secretaries of al thematic working groups to oversee the commence- state, as well as agency representatives from the Red ment of climate change planning. Cross, United Nations, and civil society. Plans for the Inter-Ministerial Commission are to meet twice an- The Initial National Communication of January 2008 nually to oversee the introduction of the policy and is a starting point for addressing climate change ad- the accountability of relevant departments and other aptation in a coordinated manner. It notes nominal DRM-invested bodies. The Commission would also CCA activities in water supply and sanitation, agri- meet during disasters to provide political oversight culture, forestry, and food security, and some emissions and direction. mitigation activities. But still a range of gaps and chal- lenges remain to be tackled, including the following: The success of the NDRM Policy will depend on the n Lack of environmental policy; focus of the Inter-Ministerial Commission, which is still in a formative stage. Reportedly the formation of n Incomplete environmental laws and regulations; the Commissions suffers from lack of departmental n Weak enforcement of the existing environmental commitment although it has strong political sup- regulations and laws; port. This support was reiterated at a meeting with the Secretary of State for Social Assistance and National n Lack of climate change regulations; Disasters who noted that in 2008--a difficult year in n Lack of experts specializing in climate change; terms of the size of disaster events--the responses of the Ministries for Agriculture and Infrastructure had n Lack of climate change activities undertaken by the been inadequate, particularly in terms of allocated bud- country in the past; 14 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands n Limited climate data and other meteorological data; The NAPA project development document sets out an organizational structure for the process under a n Limited equipment for collecting meteorological National Project Director within the NDIEA. The data; structure comprises a Project Steering Committee, a n Limited human resources to undertake climate Project Working Committee, a Project Implementa- change impacts assessment; and tion Unit headed by a National Project Coordinator, and 6 sectoral working groups. The Minister/Vice n No climate change data on impacts, vulnerability, and Minister of Economy and Development chairs the adaptation options. Project Steering Committee with Minister and Sec- retary of State representation from key CCA-related The Government of Timor-Leste is acutely aware of ministries and directorates. The Project Working these issues and has included them in the Annual Ac- Committee, comprising director-level officials, over- tion Plan of the Ministry of Social Solidarity (con- sees the program and provides for cross-sector coor- tained in Budget Paper No 1 of the General Budget of dination. The 6 sectoral working groups address food the State 2008). An aim of the Action Plan would be security and agriculture, water quality and accessibil- to include institutional and systemic development of ity, forests coastal ecosystems and biodiversity, hu- the National Directorate of Disaster Management and man health, human settlement and infrastructure, and the development of an efficient Disaster Management natural and human-induced disasters. Mechanism for Service for reducing disaster risks in Timor-Leste. DRR/CCA coordination is reportedly lacking with This is consistent with both the National Develop- limited departmental support at the operational level. ment Plan and the IV Constitutional Government Program. It shows political support and the policy The objectives of the NAPA project include estab- commitment to disaster risk management. lishing the institutional structure, assessing district- level vulnerability to climate variability, identifying The Government of Timor-Leste is a signatory to the key CCA measures, developing proposals for priority Kyoto Convention. The Initial National Communica- activities, and preparing the NAPA document. tion, prepared pursuant to UNFCCC requirements, indicates the nation's situation with respect to green- The project structure that is being established pro- house gas emissions and provides a broad assessment vides the basis for oversight and coordination of a of the vulnerabilities to climate change and adaptation wide range of organizations to make assessments of measures that may be taken. climate change vulnerability at the district level. The following constraints point to the need for a very One of the CCA Thematic Working Groups is devel- pragmatic approach in defining the scope of achiev- oping a NAPA with UNDP support and Global En- able outcomes: vironment Facility (GEF) funding. Development of n Limited internal understanding of the climate data, the NAPA over an 18-month period would evaluate which implies that external support will be needed climate change risks and identify prioritized adapta- to provide the core analysis for vulnerability assess- tion activities across a range of sector working groups, ments. including the National Disaster Management Direc- torate. n Reported lack of capacity within many departments contributing to the sector working groups. New Timor-Leste Country Assessment 15 programs should be part of existing programs. tors and levels. Such a framework is necessary to give effect to the NDRM Policy, which extends to n Lack of technical support for the national- and community level and would provide for the devel- district-level assessments of vulnerability. Proce- opment of capacity and support to the community. dures will need to be supported toward a consistent Such a framework would also provide for integra- outcome. tion with climate change adaptation. n Lack of district structures in the NDES and n Lack of professional capacity in the middle levels of NDIEA. The project will depend on existing struc- government. This is reportedly an issue across all tures in other sectors (e.g., health, disaster manage- departments and at the district level. The Secretary ment, agriculture, forestry, social) for inputs at the of State for National Disasters and Social Assis- district level and community level. An institutional tance identified a need for an on-going program- framework from the national to district to commu- nity level can be reinforced in disaster risk manage- matic support over at least 5 years. ment and climate change adaptation. n Lack of technical capacity. The Secretary of State for Natural Disasters and Social Assistance noted Integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change that the need for technical assistance support and adaptation into policy and planning as well as legisla- provisions to ensure the transfer of skills to relevant tion and regulations is seen as a long-term common counterparts in these areas. goal by the NDMD, the UNDP, and representatives of other national and international NGOs working on n Limited consideration of DRR/CCA integration disaster management. into policy, plans, legislation, and regulations. In the period when Timor-Leste is rebuilding its state Many of the CCA impediments are similar to those structures, there is an opportunity to initiate new for disaster risk management, including the lack of policies, plans, and legislation early this process. technical capacity within the NDES and NDIEA and more particularly within the other departments of the inter-government and agency sectoral working groups, the lack of policy and leg- coordination islative development, and the lack of program devel- The two sectors responsible for vulnerability and risk opment. In the development plan, the NAPA should assessments--the Ministry of Social Solidarity and address many of these issues. the Ministry for Economy and Development--report having good working relations. However, cooperation Gaps is at the working group formation stage, and integra- n Lack of legislation to support the NDRM Policy. tion is not being considered. Both sectors also report The Secretary of State for Natural Disasters and major capacity issues and difficulties in getting other Social Assistance observed that legislation to sup- government agencies actively involved. port the functions and obligations of the NDRM Policy, particularly to reinforce the areas of cross- With responsibility for disaster risk management, the sector coordination and the risk reduction func- Inter-Ministerial Commission for Disaster Manage- tion, is much needed. ment is expected to coordinate government activities. n Lack of an institutional/governance framework for One of its functions is to allocate areas of activity and disaster risk management for procedures across sec- responsibility to the various departments and agen- 16 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands cies. The NDRM Policy sets broad functions at the attempting to establish capacity in the districts to district, sub-district and suco administration levels, assist with climate events but the continuous call and the NDMD is tasked with promulgating and on their resources to provide relief is presenting a implementing the policy and decisions of the Inter- situation desperately in need of coordinated and Ministerial Commission. While there are significant sustained support. capacity issues to constrain the activity arising from both the NDRM Policy and the NAPA development, Gaps the potential exists to coordinate this work. If coor- n Limited inter-governmental coordinating mecha- dination is successfully handled, it could provide for nisms to ensure whole-of-government involvement continuing development of policies and legislation, in disaster risk reduction and climate change adap- along with community strengthening DRR and CCA tation. This reflects the status of the re-establish- activities, through potentially a 10-year program. ment of the governmental processes. Government officials are aware of the need for coordinating In the area of climate change adaptation, the NAPA mechanisms and are actively seeking donor sup- administrative structures are centered on the ministe- port to address the issue. rial-level and secretary of state-level Project Steering n There is a need for a policy discussion to consider Committee and 6 sectoral working groups. The effec- the integration of DRR and CCA initiatives and tiveness of these arrangements (that have no policy or to establish a form of integration that meets the legislative mandate to act with contributing agencies) needs of each. Such a discussion should be based for coordinating agency involvement has yet to be on DRM and NAPA development with technical tested, but capacity considerations and reported expe- assistance from the DRR, CCA, and governance rience indicate relatively low expectations. The CCA perspectives. policy and internal resourcing structures are less de- veloped than for disaster risk management, and many agencies will be expected to contribute to both areas. Planning and budgetary processes The Government appears to have a well-structured Neither disaster risk reduction nor climate change national development planning and state budget pro- adaptation have been addressed in district and sub- cess, and there is evidence of strong political and se- district planning. Although there appears to be under- nior official commitment to it. The rigor and efficacy standing at the district level, neither human resources of the arrangements will be evaluated; but at present nor funds adequately reflect the scope and implica- there still appears to be a lack of mid-level organiza- tions of hazards and risks as part of the normal op- tional commitment and poorly defined and developed erations of the district, sub-district and suco (village) institutional frameworks in the planning and budget- administrations. The next step in DRM improvement ary processes. is an institutional framework to allocate departmental functions (or develop them on the lower administra- The general state budget (dated December 18, 2007, tive levels) and to allocate functions and accountabili- refers to the Second National Development Plan) ties explicitly to agencies. It is also a pre-requisite to was set up to consolidate the Government's vision on provide for effective government agency coordination the reduction of vulnerability to disaster and risk The and DRM integration into policies and plans. budget documents draw attention to the priority-- he The National Disaster Management Directorate is environment, reforestation and prevention of natural Timor-Leste Country Assessment 17 disasters--of the 4th Constitutional Government pro- CCA activities, the development of DRM arrange- gram. This priority is addressed under Program Area ments and capacity within a coordinated governance 5, Infrastructure and Improving Living Conditions. Such framework. This requires both internal and external a priority could be given action with the assistance of funding between international agencies and donors to land-use zoning maps and vulnerable area mapping to allow and facilitate this development. help address disaster risk reduction and climate change adaption in the context of natural and human-induced hazards. Considerable efforts in basic data collection Knowledge, data, tools will be essential to underpin such efforts. Timor-Leste is a new nation in the process of build- ing its structures, including the ones to provide for A 15-month institutional strengthening program disaster risk management and climate change adap- (US$1.5-million) supports the NDMD. The Inter- tation. Within the government, the understanding of national Organization for Migration is the execut- constraints to national development posed by geo- ing agency, which, while making good progress on physical, climatic, and hydrological hazard and risks strengthening office programs and connections into across sectors and communities is growing. However, the districts, observes the lack of technical DRM ca- the severe lack of data, tools, and capacity to quan- pacity that is limiting the value of the program. In tify and interpret those risks is limiting to the poten- these circumstances cross-sector advisory committees tial means for integrating the knowledge into policy, and working groups are unlikely to be internally effec- analysis, strategy, and development planning and de- tive and externally driven outcomes are likely to face cisionmaking. implementation difficulties. Likewise, multiple short- term support projects are unlikely to generate internal The National Directorate of Meteorology and Geo- capacity and sustainable commitment. physics has a primary responsibility for the collection, collation, and analyses of meteorological and geophys- The generally sound policy development should be ical data. The Director of Meteorological Services sees matched by delivery outcomes, which are now limited the expansion of climate data monitoring as a high but can be addressed by a simple and clearly account- priority. This will entail long-term objectives needing able institutional framework, as well as a long-term donor support and technical advisory, including: development program supporting internal capacity n Re-establishing a meteorological network, such as development. the provision and training of observers; n Recovering, digitizing, analyzing, and storing data The overwhelming plethora of issues the Government that was collected under previous administrations is presently facing limits the allocation of internal (Portugal and Indonesia); and DRR and CCA resources. There is a significant risk of the NAPA project becoming an externally driven n Developing professional capacity in the meteoro- initiative. The Government is clearly concerned about logical forecasting and climate risk fields. the development of DRM and DRR arrangements throughout its districts; this issue is addressed in a There are no hydrological monitoring stations operat- platform of its National Development Plan and in a ing in Timor-Leste. The impact is a lack of coher- comprehensive policy. An internally driven initiative ent and comprehensive set of data and information could be promoted by bringing together the DRR and covering the national situation for water resources and 18 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands water-related risks, such as floods and droughts. Gov- nor an earthquake-monitoring network are available ernment officials believe that measures are being initi- in Timor-Leste. Staff of the National Directorate of ated to remediate the situation. Meteorology and Geophysics understood that donors would provide assistance for establishing a seismic With regards to climatological information, the vari- monitoring network. Earthquake measurements and ability and extremes of rainfall are central to under- seismic data are available from the Badang Meteorolic standing the flood, drought, and water supply risks Geophysica in Jakarta and Japan. facing the country. The Dili Airport is the only fully operational meteorological station in Timor-Leste. The coastal communities of Timor-Leste are at risk The only rainfall intensity data coming from the Dili from tsunami. Despite recognition of the risk, no Airport are not representative of a country with high- governmental bodies in Timor-Leste have accurate ly diverse terrain. The Dili airport station is operated data on tsunami occurrence. Some information may with the assistance of the Australian Bureau of Mete- be available from the Governments of Portugal and orology. The data is collected, processed, and analyzed Indonesia and other neighboring countries. In com- for forecasting and for airport operational purposes. mon with other Pacific countries, Timor-Leste has an The Ministry of Agriculture and Arborculture also opportunity for a paleo-tsunami study and collection collects rainfall data, which is forwarded to the Aus- of oral histories. tralian Bureau of Meteorology. The National Direc- torate of Meteorology and Geophysics does not col- Cyclone tracking and early warning information is lect these materials. Management of these and other available from the Australian Bureau of Meteorol- historic data in a computerized database is needed, as ogy and other international bodies calculating the well as automatic pluviometric rain gauges sited stra- frequencies of cyclonic events. However, due to lack tegically in priority catchments. of additional data and professional capability within Timor-Leste to undertake analysis, the Director of Long-term records from a geographically representative the Meteorological Service cannot provide full risk es- set of rainfall and temperature recording stations are timation and evaluation. The limited professional ca- needed to build a picture of climatic variability and pacity is illustrated by the fact that there are no trained change. Such records are not available for Timor-Leste. meteorologists in the emerging Bureau of Meteorol- Historic data may be available for some district-level ogy; four meteorological observers work at the airport rainfall stations from a more expansive pre-Independence and four geophysical staff in the Bureau with support network operated under the Portuguese and Indonesian of six administrative staff. administrations. Data from these historic stations should be sourced, acquired, collated, digitized and analyzed as Neither systematic tidal measurements nor sea-level essential to any new local weather data-recording and rise monitoring are carried out for Timor-Leste in any climate-monitoring network. port of the Pacific or Indian Ocean. The monitoring is necessary to gather knowledge of the long-term im- Earthquakes pose significant risks across Timor- plications of sea-level rise on the coastal systems of Leste, and the broad seismic hazard recorded in past the country. studies and experience is reasonably well understood. However, this understanding is not derived from Overall, minimal monitoring or data analysis is comprehensive data since neither seismic hazard maps being conducted. Although data collection is taken Timor-Leste Country Assessment 19 into consideration, lack of resources and professional necessary information to enable appropriate risk capacity is prohibiting quick improvement. Hazard assessments to be included in the disaster management management in Timor-Leste relies on support of processes. This situation requires priority action. limited climatological, hydrological, and geophysical information. Thus, future risk assessments are severely Gaps limited. Its affect will be realized in carrying out projects n Lack of technical capacity in the areas of hazard that are intended to mainstream climate proofing monitoring and assessment at three levels: (a) ba- into national and district planning and development sic capacity development to take full advantage of policy and projects, such transport infrastructure available information from neighboring countries and other construction works for tourist resorts and and enhance those relationships, (b) enhancement related facilities. Despite severely limited capacities, of the in-country monitoring to provide for basic the Ministries of Infrastructure and Economy and differentiation of regional monitoring and for early Development are slated to rectify this situation warning, and (c) capacity development to provide according to government officials. for hazard data analysis and projection. n Lack of capacity to understand and process core cli- Some initial disaster hazard mapping has been un- mate data and provide continuing collection of DRM dertaken. The GIS-based material is available from and CCA data. This need should be addressed in UNDP, however, the maps cannot be reproduced in short term, including in the development of the the NDMD. The maps indicate the types of hazard NAPA; bi-lateral arrangements and support will and geographic distribution of areas at risk. "Hot be required. spots" are highlighted and areas for priority ranking in relation to potential disasters are easy to identify. In n Loss of climate and hydrological monitoring network 2008, the UNDP provided simple maps on areas that due to the destruction of monitoring and collection were prone to flooding. systems throughout the Timor-Leste. With the ex- ception of Dili Airport, there is no equipment for Scarce information exists on the general biophysical the systematic collection of climatological data, no conditions of Timor-Leste showing land forms, soils, hydrological network, and no seismic monitoring. slope, and vegetative cover. Also, no socio-economic n Lack of tidal data and systematic monitoring of sea- assessment of populations, land use, and infrastruc- level rise. The standardized collection, collation, ture at risk is available. Such information needs to be and electronic storage of tidal records as part of collected, systematically geo-referenced, and digitized the systematic measurement of water-level oscil- for application to spatial analyses of hazard risks faced lation is essential for determining and monitoring by urbanized and non-urban areas. the changes in sea level that could be attributed to global warming. At the national level, the understanding is high for needed emergency response to earthquakes, cyclones, n Lack of historical time-series data for risk assess- and floods, and their impact on the country's ments due to the removal of data records from the development. The underlying causes of food and water country. Lack of data provided by climatological, security are also well understood. However, there is a hydrological, and geophysical systems inhibits severe lack of environmental health epidemiological analyses of frequency and magnitude of extreme data and limited capacity to collect and analyze the events. 20 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands n Lack of spatially distributed data sufficient to con- Vulnerability and risk assessments struct hazard maps at a scale appropriate for plan- ning and risk reduction. For climatic data, especially Timor-Leste faces a wide range of natural and human- rainfall, there is a need for spatial interpolation to induced hazards, comparable to the situation of Papua fine resolution. The lack of spatially interpolated New Guinea and Vanuatu. Natural hazards include baseline climatologies limits the ability to analyze earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, tropical cyclones, scenarios of climate changes for the purposes of storm surges, floods and tidal-induced back-flooding, climate-risk, impact, and adaptation assessments. droughts, bushfire, and coast erosion. Risks stemming from these hazards are further exacerbated by: n Lack of adequate data monitoring networks to meet future needs of climate vulnerability and risk as- n Climatic variability; sessments. Across the range of geophysical, hydro- n Increasing population; logical, and climatological hazards, the absence of n Development of settlements and infrastructure at data collection capability will negatively influence vulnerable sites in rural, urban, and coastal loca- disaster risk management and climate change ad- tions; and aptation. Concerted efforts are necessary to review n Sea-level rise and coastal retreat. and re-establish an enhanced network. Government departments and the nongovernment sec- n No procedures or capacity for systematic and con- tor share a sound understanding of the risks and their sistent collection of disasters damage and loss data. implications, as well as a strong commitment to address The lack of disaster impact data is a constraint to these issues using national, international donor, and economic analyses of the benefits of disaster risk nongovernment sector resources. However, no assess- reduction and climate change adaptation. Evalu- ments are available to estimate the following: ation of benefits and costs of risk reduction, and therefore investments by government and donors, n Degrees of risk, requires systematic procedures and appropriate in- n Number of communities at risk in specific loca- stitutional support. This deficiency is recognized, tions, and donor assistance to remediate the situation will n Key infrastructure at risk and its location, and be welcomed. n Socio-economic implications of the risks. n Lack of current and comparable land use and socio- As reported by UNDP and NDMD officials, the economic data and information at appropriate sub- Government of Timor-Leste is facing serious district, suco, and town scales. This is required to challenges in assessing the national impact of disasters accurately assess the costs of responding to cata- and all different types of disaster events across all 13 strophic events and the recovery phases where in- districts at various times of the year. Primary among frastructure and housing needs repair or replacing. impacts is crop damage caused by monsoonal winds, n Lack of capacity and data to undertake health risk floods, and landslides. Also, crop failure coinciding analysis. This is an important type of data for di- with dry periods between plantings and locust saster management and response procedures at na- infestations are not uncommon. Root causes for tional and district scales. disaster and conflicts are inextricably linked to recovery issues. Recovery issues include food insecurity, lack of access to water, fragile livelihoods, volatile public Timor-Leste Country Assessment 21 security, psycho-social conditions such as trauma, advancing concerted actions for risk reduction in lack of communications, lack of environmental Timor-Leste. Even when data are available, the sustainability, justice, and governance issues (UNDP lack of tools and human capacity prohibits the data 2008). Insufficient institutional and budget execution to be translated into usable information. capacity to implement interventions in those areas are n Lack of identified priorities for vulnerability and limiting the country's development. risk assessments. Timor-Leste has only started building its vulnerability and risk assessment ca- UNDP concludes that new measures should address pabilities. While sector priorities were identified in the following: the NAPA project document, a systematic priori- n Capacity strengthening and community-based di- tization of hazards for the populations, infrastruc- saster risk management, ture, and areas at-risk--the hotspots--is a basis for n Prevention and mitigation measures, developing vulnerability and risk assessments to n Preparedness and response, and support town planning and rural development. n Delivery of post-disaster recovery services. In the area of climate change adaptation, preliminary monitoring and evaluation assessment of climate change vulnerabilities and ad- No systematic monitoring and evaluation of risk re- aptation options are required on a district-by-district duction efforts is available in Timor-Leste. In the area basis. It should be carried out as part of the on-going of disaster risk reduction, the 2008 NDRM Policy NAPA process. provides for the integration of DRM activities into plans and development programs across all sectors. As noted above, the biggest impediment to the devel- The Policy notes a need for setting targets and out- opment of detailed risk and vulnerability assessments come measures; however, it is too early to evaluate its and maps is the lack of climatological, hydrological, implications. and geophysical data. Digital elevation models are es- sential for assessment of some hazards, like coastal and In the area of climate change adaptation, the monitor- river flooding, bushfires, tsunamis, and sea-level rise. ing and evaluation framework is even less developed This need is clearly recognized by the NDMD and with no policy document; the cross-sector coordina- further actions are considered to supplement existing tion arrangements are being established. The NAPA coarse resolution maps with high-resolution mapping development document provides for the establish- of vulnerable areas across the country. The NDMD ment of monitoring and evaluation mechanisms over officials suggested that this activity would require out- 18 months within UNDP and GEF procedures. This side support. is also the time when integration of CCA with DRM consideration could be considered. Gaps n Lack of vulnerability and risk assessments and maps Gaps required to plan and implement DRR and CCA ac- n Lack of monitoring and evaluation reporting with tivities, and lack of models and tools for analyzing mechanisms to promote improvement. There is an and interpreting data for purposes of vulnerability opportunity to build these measures into emerg- and risk assessments, risk profiles, and mapping. ing governance arrangements and integrate DRR/ Filling this gap is a fundamental requirement for CCA measurement parameters. This will depend 22 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands on the provision of appropriate DRR/CCA tech- competencies rather than simply recruiting people to fill nical/governance support. immediate job vacancies without ensuring adequate pre- employment and continuing professional development. n Lack of an institutional framework for DRM Having been identified as a high priority by public within which development planning and evalua- and nongovernmental bodies, capacity building could tion parameters can be set across sectors and levels. be tackled head on if external consultants were used Such a framework is necessary to give effect to to build in-country capacity, to carry out the work the NDRM Policy that extends to the community and prepare for further applications. As a stakeholder level. It would provide for CCA integration, which observed in discussions, "We want people to work with lacks a district-level structure within the Secretari- us, not for us." at for the Environment. Filling these gaps is fundamental, from moving be- For years the NDMD has been conducting a pub- yond uncoordinated, ad hoc activities to measuring lic hazard and preparedness awareness program. It progress and providing for future program adjustment distributes information on risks and climate change based on outcomes. disasters. The program involves training and aware- ness building of personnel within government depart- ments, as well as district and sub-district officials. Awareness raising and capacity The awareness and training has also involved schools, building church groups, and community-based organizations. As an emerging post-conflict nation, Timor-Leste Although no outside funding has supported the activ- is facing limitations across all sectors in professional, ities, training had been provided to some 700 people technical, and administrative capacity. Discussions over the past 4 years. However, with limited resources, with officials of the NDMD, the Ministry for En- just 4 of the 13 districts could be considered to have vironment, the European Union, as well as UNDP, reasonably benefitted from the program. There is an AusAID, and NGOs, indicate that there are substan- expectation that the NDMD will receive budget sup- tial systemic problems in developing professional and port for 2009 activity in 4 districts. Planning is un- technical expertise needed to build DRR/CCA capac- derway and resources are to be mobilized to extend the activities to additional districts before rolling the ity. Specifically, areas where the country has weakest program out nationally. capacity include: n Monitoring environmental conditions such as The assessment team visited the District of Ermera weather and stream flows; where district administrators demonstrated a high degree of understanding of hazards and disaster n Knowledge of the theory and practice of disaster management and an awareness of climate change issues. management and climate change; However, no resources to provide support or travel to n Data analysis and interpretation for vulnerability communities on a regular basis were available. and risk assessments. The NGOs are playing an important role in addressing For Timor-Leste in its development as a new country, the environmental health dimensions of disaster the most profitable strategic approach is to build response. Some NGOs provide DRM support at long-term professional and technical capacities and the district and sub-district level of 9 districts. Other Timor-Leste Country Assessment 23 NGOs are establishing district and community Coordination among donors and key programs for disaster management development in stakeholders some districts. These activities would benefit from a national and district institutional framework since until With the multitude of issues faced by Timor-Leste, recently NGO activities had limited connection with many donors, stakeholders, and NGOs are active in the NDMD. The connections have been strengthened the country. Coordination of funding for DRR/CCA with adoption of the NDRM Policy but have not been activities is however lacking. There is widespread ac- formalized. The NGOs have a positive view of the ceptance among donors and stakeholders of the use- NDRM Policy; however, they considered it optimistic fulness of some form of integration between these and perhaps not strong enough to penetrate into the activities. An agreement among donors and key stake- communities. The NGOs have recently established a holders would be required to facilitate the processes connection with the NDMD coordinating body for necessary to differentiate activities within an integrat- community-based DRM activities. The NGOs would ed framework. welcome development of a DRM framework to work together with the Government within a coordinated The UNDP plays a significant role in coordinating 5-year program. NGO activities, as evidenced in the 2008 Transitional Strategy and Appeal through which it supports na- Many NGOs prepared proposals for funding in 2008 tional responses to humanitarian and recovery needs (UNDP Transitional Strategy Appeal). The DRM of internally displaced people and vulnerable com- component of this totals US$5.8 million in 11 proj- munities and strengthens disaster management in ects over 18 months; the funding status is unknown. Timor-Leste. The UNDP pursued 67 short-term projects totaling US$33.5 million. This included Gap US$5.8 million for 11 DRM initiatives. The UNDP n Lack of institutional and planning framework for is also addressing development of National Recovery coordination of capacity development across nation- Policy and Disaster Operation Centers at the national al, district, and community levels is a strong impedi- and district levels. ment to development of DDR and CCA activities. Sustainable capacity development at the district While the Transitional Strategy and Appeal might be and community levels requires an institutional perceived as too optimistic in its scope and timing, it framework with allocated functions and proce- could provide the basis for development of a coordi- dures for each program. It is also useful to have nated and sustained program over a minimum of 5 a longer-term (5-year) development plan within years. Such a program should run in parallel with the which short-term projects can be more effective. emergency assistance and humanitarian recovery pro- Ad hoc, 6-month projects, which attempt to pro- grams recognizing national and community priorities, vide community DRM solutions, proved unrealis- as well as limited absorptive capacity. In the area of tic. As proven in other countries, comprehensive climate change adaptation, UNDP is helping prepare programs take several years to be developed. the NAPA for Timor-Leste. The European Union plays a significant role in rural development and infrastructure. It encounters difficulty in mobilizing internal interest in the 24 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands programs, due to low capacity issues. The European Both the NDMD and the Environment Directorates Union also sees a need for better coordination among appeal to donors to move beyond short-term project donors and government agencies. In addition, the support to addressing capacity development in line Asian Development Bank could fund infrastructure with the Government priorities. programs with elements of disaster risk reduction; however, the scale of the programs has not yet been Gap addressed. n There is a need for better recognition and coordina- tion of the long-term development needs on a pro- AusAID provides significant DRM support to the grammatic basis and processes to facilitate DRM NDMD. Additionally, NGOs coordinate commu- and CCA funding within an integrated framework. nity initiatives through the Community-based DRM The issue is addressed in the country; leadership Working Group. Various programs, such as FAO food from the donors and stakeholders will help facili- production and distribution assistance, are needed to tate the outcome. v boost food security, especially in areas that are also vulnerable to extreme weather events (floods and droughts). Timor-Leste Country Assessment 25 opportunities for investment T his Timor-Leste assessment highlights the cur- n Technical assistance support for development of rent country status, gaps, opportunities and the DRM institutional framework and legisla- barriers related to national policies, strategies, tion--potentially World Bank funded. plans, and activities with regard to the management n Technical assistance support for DRM planning of natural hazards. It also focuses on the importance across government sectors and, associated, techni- of an enabling environment for a comprehensive risk cal assistance for vulnerability assessment--poten- management approach and the capacity to undertake tially World Bank and donor funded. such an approach by strengthening institutional ar- rangements, human resources, public awareness, in- n Technical assistance support for hazard monitor- formation, and national budget allocations. ing, data management and mapping--potentially supported by a bi-lateral arrangement. The country assessment shows that Timor-Leste is n Professional development of staff in areas of haz- facing many critical issues and is severely limited in ards, vulnerability assessment, and organizational its internal capacity to address them effectively. Many management for DRM--potentially donor/stake- donors, stakeholders, and NGOs are contributing to a holder sponsorship for targeted professional devel- wide range of activities that require government inter- opment programs both internal and external. action. The Secretary of State for Natural Disasters and Social Assistance stresses that help is needed at a tech- n Support for the development of district and sub- nical and governance level to develop internal capacity. district structures and capacity for DRM--poten- On-going engagements and relationships are necessary tially donor and stakeholder support for NGO ac- to embed institutional and capacity development over tivities within a structured framework. a 5-year period or longer. Officials of the Ministry of Economy and Development working on climate change In narrowing the field of project opportunities for echo this call. Both agencies note the importance of the Timor-Leste, the assessment team considered the Government providing for appropriate counterparts for needs identified by the Secretary of State and other development. Programs therefore should be established activities discussed in the assessment. In the area of and conducted at a level and pace appropriate to the climate change adaptation, the UNDP-supported counterpart capacity available. In some areas, such as development of the NAPA will need specific support the Meteorological Service, external technical support in policy and regulatory development, and planning will be needed to establish the basis for monitoring. In and project management. Professional development these areas, programmatic bi-lateral support might be support for national capacity development is an area most appropriate. of immediate attention, as outlined in the UNDP- supported National Capacity Development Action The Secretary of State for Natural Disasters and So- Plan for Global Environmental Management (February cial Assistance has identified the following needs for 2007). Administrative coordination mechanisms assistance in implementing the NDRM Policy. The through thematic and sector working groups are Government could choose to pursue these options unlikely to succeed without institutional mechanisms with its own resources, with support from the inter- for integration of DRR/CCA activities. Technical national donor community, and/or from international assistance is required to support the community-based financial institutions such as the Asian Development DRM activity that is tackling local-level vulnerability Bank and the World Bank. such as river management measures for reducing flood 26 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands risk to low lying coastal villages adjacent to short flood and develop internal capacity. It would most ap- prone rivers. Donor funding in needed for a paleo- propriately be provided through a bi-lateral devel- tsunami study and collection of oral histories that opment arrangement. could be undertaken in collaboration with the National (3) Support for NGO community-based DRM pro- University. grams at the district, sub-district, and suco levels within a structured institutional framework as From all these considerations the following four op- developed in priority. This could include tech- portunities for investment are proposed for consider- nical support for developing river management ation: practices to reduce future flood risk to low-lying (1) Development of a simple DRR/CCA institutional communities adjacent to short flood prone coastal and policy framework and organizational mecha- rivers. This would integrate the community-based nism, which allows for activities to be differentiated DRM programs into the proposed institutional within an integrated framework. The framework framework and become part of a programmatic, would allocate functions and accountabilities across capacity development initiative. agencies and sectors and establish institutional rela- (4) Development and support for a range of profession- tionships and procedures for disaster risk manage- al initiatives for cross-sector staff in areas of haz- ment, disaster risk reduction, and climate change ards, vulnerability assessment and organizational adaptation. The program would include develop- management. This would provide a programmatic ment of legislation; establishment of arrangements commitment to capacity development for staff at the national, district, and suco (village) levels; across sectors within CCA and DRM programs development of capacity at the organization and and would include both internal and external ini- community level; enhancement of hazard monitor- tiatives. ing and analysis; and development of disaster man- agement and risk reduction plans across sectors and These priority areas are set out as 4 proposals in An- communities. The arrangements would be driven nex A. These are intended to provide preliminary by Government priorities information on required actions and tasks, as well as (2) Development of meteorological monitoring capabil- their indicative costs. While these priorities reflect a ity with data management, analysis, and forecast- great deal of consultation and analysis, the impedi- ing systems and skills. This would allow for initial ments and gaps previously noted in the report could analysis of available hazard data and program- create serious obstacles if they are not addressed as matic support to reinforce monitoring networks part of the program preparation process. v Annex A. Proposals for support in Timor-Leste Proposal TL1 support the development of a practical policy and institutional framework and organizational mechanism for Drm and CCA to provide the basis for coordinated development of capacity Country/sector Timor-Leste; multi-sector Goal and purpose An explicit and sustainable set of arrangements for developing Drr and CCA capacity through national agencies, districts and into communities with strong linkages to civil society. Scope national, district and local arrangements for government, local government and civil society Lead agencies nDrmiC, nDmD and ministry of economy and Development with nDes/nDieA Cost and duration us$240,000 over 3 years risk reduction Cost Time- Hazards targeted measures Key gaps/barriers Tasks us$k frame All hazards Multiple, according to Commitment to the Develop institutional framework for DRM across 40 Year 1 hazard and sector at institutional framework, sectors and levels allocating functions, account- 2 months risk capacity at the national abilities and arrangements, including CCA and district levels, and Develop legislation to give effect to the resources to provide 50 Year 1 framework and the new national disaster plan sustained support 3 months Facilitate the establishment of national and provincial structures with members and NGOs in developing terms of reference, statements of 150 Years 1-3 purpose, and exercising ­ 3 months technician assistance per year for 3 years Support NGOs in implementation of the framework for local arrangements and civil society Continues Timor-Leste Country Assessment 27 28 Annex A. Proposals for support in Timor-Leste Continues Proposal TL2 Development of meteorological monitoring capability with data management, analysis and forecasting systems and skills Country/sector Timor-Leste; multi-sector Goal and purpose An established capacity for meteorological monitoring and the generation of information responsive to the needs of key sectors established capacity for meteorological monitoring and the generation of information responsive to the needs of key sectors. Scope national Lead agencies meteorological services, in liaison with other agencies Cost and duration us$250,000 over 3 years risk reduction Cost Time- Hazards targeted measures Key gaps/barriers Tasks us$k frame All hazards Availability of Capacity, equipment, Build capacity of local Met Services through 100 Year 1 meteorological skills for analysis and technical assistance, training, and provision of 4 months information forecasting equipment 150 Years 2-3 6 months 250 Years 1-3 Proposal TL3 support for non-governmental community-based disaster risk management program at the district, sub-district and village levels Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands Country/sector Timor-Leste; multi-sector Goal and purpose Consolidation of existing arrangements for developing Drr and CCA capacity and activities within districts and into communities Scope District, local government and civil society Lead agencies nDmD and ministry of economy and Development with nDes/nDieA Cost and duration us$1 million over 3 years risk reduction Cost Time- Hazards targeted measures Key gaps/barriers Tasks us$k frame All hazards Multiple, according to Emerging community- Strengthen institutional arrangements for 200 Years 1-3 hazard and sector at risk based DRM programs government support to community-based DRR need strengthening activities. 800 Support NGOs and local communities in the implementation of community-based DRR activities Annex A. Proposals for support in Timor-Leste Proposal TL4 Development and support for a range of professional development initiatives for disaster risk management, climate change adaptation and cross sector staff in areas of hazards, vulnerability assessment and organizational management for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Country/sector Timor-Leste; multi-sector Goal and purpose increased understanding of Drr and CCA in key agencies and increased skills of key staff Scope national, district and local government, civil society Lead agencies nDrmiC, nDmD and ministry of economy and Development with nDes/nDieA Cost and duration us$250,000 over 3 years risk reduction Cost Time- Hazards targeted measures Key gaps/barriers Tasks us$k frame All hazards Multiple, according to DRR and CCA Identify priorities for DRR and CCA 100 Year 1 hazard and sector at management skills in key management skills development in key sectors 4 months risk agencies and sectors Develop and implement training programs 150 Years 2-3 6 months Improve organizational management 250 Years 1-3 Timor-Leste Country Assessment 29 30 Reducing the Risk of Disasters and Climate Variability in the Pacific Islands Annex B. Project Team and People Consulted Project team John Norton Consultant New Zealand Peter Waterman Consultant Australia Supported by Darian Clark AusAID Persons consulted (Country visit, June 9-12, 2008) Jacinto Gomes de Deus Secretary of State for Social Assistance and Natural Disasters Francisco do Rosario Director, NDMD Aurelio Guterrs Advisor to Secretary of State for Social Assistance and Natural Disasters, Prof. of Planning National University of Timor-Leste Francis Barns Advisor to NDMD, International Organisation for Migration Abilio da Fonseca National Advisor, NDIEA Terencio Moniz Director, Meteorology and Geophysics Vitor dos Santos District Administrator, Emera District Antonio Franco Country Manager, World Bank Natalie Mckelleher 2nd Secretary, AusAID Jose Perreira AusAID Pedro Aquino AusAID Guglielmo Colombo European Union Hiroko Takagi Deputy Country Director, UNDP Joana de Mesquita Lima UNDP Ruth Maria Jorge UNDP Nicholas Russell UNDP ­ Recovery Advisor to Deputy PM Kevin Austin Human Securities International Lynne Kennedy Oxfam Jay Maheswaran Austcare Richard Markowski Catholic Relief Services Maria Fellizar-Cagay CARE International Tapan Barman CONCERN Timor-Leste Country Assessment 31 references and select Bibliography ADB (Asian Development Bank). 2008. Timor-Leste: Country Environmental Analysis. Bettencourt, Sofia, Richard Croad, Paul K. Freeman, John Hay, Roger Jones, Peter King, Padma N. Lal, Alan Mearns, Geoff Miller, Idah Pswarayi-Riddihough, Alfred Simpson, Nakibae Teuatabo, Ulric Trotz, and Maarten van Aalst. 2006. Not If, But When ­ Adapting to Natural Hazards in the Pacific Islands Region ­ A Policy Note. Pacific Islands Country Management Unit, East Asia and the Pacific Region, World Bank. EU (European Union). 2008. Food Security Baseline Survey of Liquica and Bobonaro Districts: EU NGO Food Security Program for Timor-Leste, Care Osterreich GEF (Global Environment Facility). 2008. GEF-Pacific Alliance for Sustainability - Program Framework. Geoscience Australia. 2008, A Natural Hazard Risk Assessment of the Asia Pacific Region. Government of Timor-Leste. 2007. National Capacity Development Action Plan for Global Environmental Management. NDES. Government of Timor-Leste. 2008. Timor-Leste Initial National Communication under the UNFCCC ­ Submitted 2008. Government of Timor-Leste. 2008. National Disaster Risk Management Policy. NDMD. Government of Timor-Leste. 2007. IV Constitutional Government Program of the Council of Ministers 2007-2012. Government of Timor-Leste. 2008. General Budget of the State 2008 ­ Budget Paper No 1, Ministry of Finance. Government of Timor-Leste. 2008. Masterplan for the National Directorate of Meteorology and Geophysics 2009-2012. UNDP (United Nations Development Program). 2008. Timor-Leste - Transitional Strategy and Appeal 2008. A Consolidated Plan to Support National Response to Humanitarian and Recovery Needs of Internally Displaced People and Vulnerable Com- munities and Strengthen Disaster Risk Management in Timor-Leste. UNDP. 2007. Environmental Governance Support Program: Final Report. UNDP. 2007. UNDP Project Document, UNDP-GEF Enabling Activities Project- National Adaptation Program of Action to Climate Change for Timor-Leste. east Asia and the Pacific region The World Bank 1818 H St. NW, Washington, D.C. 20433 http://www.worldbank.org/eap Special thanks and appreciation are extended to the partners* who support GFDRR's work to protect livelihood and improve lives: ACP Secretariat, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, european Commission, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, italy, Japan, Luxembourg, The netherlands, norway, spain, sweden, switzerland, Turkey, united Kingdom, united states, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, and The World Bank. *In bold, GFDRR Donors