61811 v3 BACKGROUND PAPER 5 Powering Up: Costing Power Infrastructure Spending Needs in Sub-Saharan Africa COUNTRY ANNEX Orvika Rosnes and Haakon Vennemo Econ Pöyry, in association with Norplan and Power Planning Associates MARCH 2009 © 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 USA Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved A publication of the World Bank. The World Bank 1818 H Sreet, NW Washington, DC 20433 USA The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. About AICD This study is a product of the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD), a project designed to expand the world’s knowledge of physical infrastructure in Africa. AICD will provide a baseline against which future improvements in infrastructure services can be measured, making it possible to monitor the results achieved from donor support. It should also provide a better empirical foundation for prioritizing investments and designing policy reforms in Africa’s infrastructure sectors. AICD is based on an unprecedented effort to collect detailed economic and technical data on African infrastructure. The project has produced a series of reports (such as this one) on public expenditure, spending needs, and sector performance in each of the main infrastructure sectors—energy, information and communication technologies, irrigation, transport, and water and sanitation. Africa’s Infrastructure—A Time for Transformation, published by the World Bank in November 2009, synthesizes the most significant findings of those reports. AICD was commissioned by the Infrastructure Consortium for Africa after the 2005 G-8 summit at Gleneagles, which recognized the importance of scaling up donor finance for infrastructure in support of Africa’s development. The first phase of AICD focused on 24 countries that together account for 85 percent of the gross domestic product, population, and infrastructure aid flows of Sub- Saharan Africa. The countries are: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. Under a second phase of the project, coverage is expanding to include as many other African countries as possible. Consistent with the genesis of the project, the main focus is on the 48 countries south of the Sahara that face the most severe infrastructure challenges. Some components of the study also cover North African countries so as to provide a broader point of reference. Unless otherwise stated, therefore, the term “Africa� will be used throughout this report as a shorthand for “Sub-Saharan Africa.� The World Bank is implementing AICD with the guidance of a steering committee that represents the African Union, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), Africa’s regional economic communities, the African Development Bank, the Development Bank of Southern Africa, and major infrastructure donors. Financing for AICD is provided by a multidonor trust fund to which the main contributors are the U.K.’s Department for International Development, the Public Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility, Agence Française de Développement, the European Commission, and Germany’s KfW Entwicklungsbank. The Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Program and the Water and Sanitation Program provided technical support on data collection and analysis pertaining to their respective sectors. A group of distinguished peer reviewers from policy-making and academic circles in Africa and beyond reviewed all of the major outputs of the study to ensure the technical quality of the work. The data underlying AICD’s reports, as well as the reports themselves, are available to the public through an interactive Web site, www.infrastructureafrica.org, that allows users to download customized data reports and perform various simulations. Inquiries concerning the availability of data sets should be directed to the editors at the World Bank in Washington, DC. Annex 1 Country output tables This appendix lists detailed output tables for the overall investment requirements in Sub-Saharan Africa. We report country tables highlighting the difference in investment, refurbishment and variable costs under each scenario, as well as investment and refurbishment volumes, capacity mix, cross-border transmission capacity investments and energy trade. Southern Africa Power Pool 3 Angola 3 Botswana 7 Democratic Republic of Congo 11 Lesotho 15 Malawi 19 Mozambique 23 Namibia 27 Republic of South Africa 31 Zambia 35 Zimbabwe 39 Nile Basin – East Africa Power Pool 44 Burundi 44 Djibouti 49 Egypt 53 Ethiopia 57 Kenya 62 Rwanda 66 Sudan 70 Tanzania 75 Uganda 79 Western Africa Power Pool 83 Benin 83 Burkina Faso 87 Côte d’Ivoire 91 Gambia 96 Ghana 100 Guinea 104 Guinea Bissau 109 Liberia 113 Mali 117 Mauritania 121 Niger 125 Nigeria 129 Senegal 133 Sierra Leone 137 Togo 141 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Central Africa Power Pool 145 Cameroon 145 Central African Republic 150 Chad 154 Republic of Congo (Br.) 158 Equatorial Guinea 162 Gabon 166 Islands States 170 Cape Verde 170 Madagascar 174 Mauritius 178 Regional totals for the island states 182 2 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Southern Africa Power Pool Angola Table A1.1 Overview: Angola 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 8.9 9.6 11.0 0.1 8.8 Exports (TWh) 4.8 4.9 5.0 0.1 4.5 Net exports (TWh) -4.1 -4.7 -6.0 0.0 -4.3 Generation capacity - installed (MW) 620 620 620 620 620 Generation capacity - refurbishment (MW) 198 198 203 305 203 Generation capacity - new investments (MW) 0 2 8 1 184 8 New cross-border transmission (MW) 1 802 1 902 2 120 0 1 735 Target Access Rate 14 % 24 % 46 % 46 % 46 % Generation capacity Hydro mix (%): 88 % 88 % 88 % 80 % 88 % Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 4% 4% 4% 16 % 4% Other 7% 8% 8% 3% 8% Table A1.2 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Angola Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) Trade expansion No new projects* - - - Trade stagnation Medio Kwanza 6,700 10 Not available * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 3 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.3 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Angola Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.1 0.7 2.6 288.8 2.6 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.3 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 265.9 0.0 Other 0.1 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 Rehabilitation cost 10.5 10.5 10.8 12.3 10.8 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 Hydro 10.5 10.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0 0.0 New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.2 0.0 Installed capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.8 0.0 T&D Investment cost 231 276 357 269 291 Cross-border grid 78 81 87 0 73 Distribution grid 139 139 139 139 87 Urban connection 11 31 79 79 79 Rural connection 2 24 51 51 51 Rehabilitation cost 38 38 38 38 38 Variable cost (existing capacity) 78 78 78 78 78 Total Capital cost 280 325 408 609 342 Investment Cost 231 277 359 558 293 Rehabilitation cost 49 49 49 50 49 Variable cost 78 78 78 177 78 TOTAL 357 403 486 785 420 4 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.4 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Angola Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rehabilitation cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Existing capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 T&D Investment cost 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 Cross-border grid 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 Distribution grid 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Urban connection 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Rural connection 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Rehabilitation cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total Capital cost 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 Investment cost 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 Rehabilitation cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Variable cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 Total 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.7 5 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.5 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Angola Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.5 6 20 2,250 20 Rehabilitation cost 59 59 61 71 61 T&D Investment cost 1,860 2,222 2,873 2,170 2,341 Rehabilitation cost 308 308 308 308 308 Total 2,228 2,595 3,262 4,799 2,730 Table A1.6 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Angola Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.8 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % cost T&D Investment cost 2.3 % 2.8 % 3.6 % 2.7 % 3.8 % Rehabilitation 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % cost Total 2.8 % 3.3 % 4.1 % 6.1 % 4.5 % 6 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Botswana Table A1.7 Overview: Botswana 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 11.9 10.1 10.4 1.2 15.2 Exports (TWh) 7.8 6.0 6.2 6.5 11.8 Net Exports (TWh) -4.1 -4.1 -4.3 5.3 -3.3 Generation capacity - installed (MW) 120 120 120 120 120 Generation capacity - refurbishment (MW) 12 12 12 12 12 Generation capacity - new investments (MW)* 0 0 6 1 206 6 New cross-border Transmission (MW) 2 656 2 077 2 141 0 4 194 Target Access Rate 30 % 40 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Generation capacity Hydro mix (%): 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Coal 100 % 100 % 96 % 100 % 96 % Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 0% 4% 0% 4% * Mmamabula power plant (2 400 MW) is, for modelling purposes, assumed to be located in South Africa (in order to reflect the short distance between the power plant and the point where the power will be fed into the South African transmission grid). Consequently, the investment volumes and costs of Mmamabula are not included in the tables for Botswana, but in the tables for South Africa. Table A1.8 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Botswana Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) Trade expansion No new projects* - - - Trade stagnation No new projects* - - - *Only mini-hydro in rural node 7 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.9 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Botswana Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.1 2.1 196.4 2.1 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 194.3 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Rehabilitation cost 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Thermal 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 10.3 10.3 10.3 171.8 10.3 New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 161.5 0.0 Installed capacity 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 T&D Investment cost 30 31 59 50 55 Cross-border 12 10 10 0 17 Distribution grid 19 19 19 19 8 Urban connection 0 2 7 7 7 Rural connection 0 1 24 24 24 Rehabilitation cost 14 14 14 14 14 Variable cost (existing capacity) 29 29 29 29 29 Total Capital cost 45 46 76 260 72 Investment cost 30 31 61 246 57 Rehabilitation cost 14 14 14 14 14 Variable cost 39 39 39 201 39 Total 84 85 115 461 111 8 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.10 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Botswana Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access 35% targets for targets for rates, Current access access access trade access rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rehabilitation cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.1 New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 Existing capacity 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 T&D Investment cost 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 Cross-border 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 Distribution grid 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Urban connection 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Rural connection 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 Rehabilitation cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total Capital cost 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.7 0.6 Investment cost 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.6 0.4 Rehabilitation cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Variable cost 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 0.3 Total 0.5 0.5 0.7 2.9 0.9 9 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.11 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Botswana Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 1 16 1,336 16 Rehabilitation cost 4 4 4 4 4 T&D Investment cost 245 252 478 399 446 Rehabilitation cost 111 111 111 111 111 Total 359 367 609 1,850 577 Table A1.12 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Botswana Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 8.5 % 0.1 % Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost T&D Investment cost 1.6 % 1.6 % 3.1 % 2.6 % 3.5 % Rehabilitation 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.9 % cost Total 2.3 % 2.3 % 3.9 % 11.8 % 4.5 % 10 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Democratic Republic of Congo Table A1.13 Overview: DRC 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Exports (TWh) 49.9 50.7 52.2 2.7 50.1 Net Exports (TWh) 49.9 50.5 51.9 2.3 49.7 Generation capacity - installed (MW) 0 0 0 0 0 Generation capacity - refurbishment (MW) 2 224 2 230 2 236 2 236 2 236 Generation capacity - new investments (MW) 7 169 7 604 8 401 761 7 972 New cross-border Transmission (MW) 5 678 5 772 5 984 0 5 657 Target Access Rate 8% 20 % 39 % 39 % 39 % Generation capacity Hydro mix (%): 100 % 100 % 100 % 99 % 100 % Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Table A1.14 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Democratic Republic of Congo Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) Trade expansion Nzilo II 120 4 No estimate Zongo II 150 4 No estimate Inga III 3,500 5 1,730 Grand Inga 1 6,000 12 4,025 Trade stagnation Nzilo II 120 4 No estimate Zongo II 150 4 No estimate Inga III 3,500 5 1,730 * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 11 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.15 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – DRC Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for 35% targets for targets for access Current access access access rates, trade access rate Rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 652 697 774 80 735 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 652 689 760 66 721 Other 0 8 14 14 14 Rehabilitation cost 110 110 110 110 110 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 110 110 110 110 110 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0 0 0 0 0 New capacity 0 0 0 0 0 Installed 0 0 0 0 0 capa city T&D Investment cost 109 275 500 446 493 Cross-border 53 53 54 0 53 Distribution grid 29 29 29 29 23 Urban connection 24 104 256 256 256 Rural connection 3 89 162 162 162 Rehabilitation cost 38 38 38 38 38 Variable cost (existing capacity) 49 49 49 49 49 Total Capital cost 909 1,120 1,423 674 1,377 Investment cost 761 972 1,275 526 1,228 Rehabilitation cost 148 148 148 148 148 Variable cost 49 49 49 49 49 Total 958 1,169 1,472 723 1,426 12 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.16 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – DRC Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for Current 35% targets for targets for access access access access access rates, trade rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 5.8 6.2 6.9 0.7 7.1 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 5.8 6.2 6.8 0.6 6.9 Other 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Rehabilitation cost 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Existing capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T&D Investment cost 1.0 2.5 4.5 4.0 4.7 Cross-border 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 Distribution grid 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 Urban connection 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.3 2.5 Rural connection 0.0 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.6 Rehabilitation cost 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Total Capital cost 8.1 10.0 12.7 6.0 13.2 Investment cost 6.8 8.7 11.4 4.7 11.8 Rehabilitation cost 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 Variable cost 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Total 8.6 10.5 13.2 6.5 13.7 13 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.17 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – DRC Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 4,616.2 4,940 5,491 573 5,215 Rehabilitation cost 620 622 623 623 623 T&D Investment cost 877 2,216 4,029 3,593 3,971 Rehabilitation cost 307 307 307 307 307 Total 6,421 8,085 10,451 5,097 10,117 Table A1.18 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – DRC Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 41.3 44.2 49.1 5.1 50.1 Rehabilitation 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.0 cost T&D Investment cost 7.8 19.8 36.0 32.1 38.2 Rehabilitation 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.0 cost Total 57.4 72.3 93.5 45.6 97.2 14 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Lesotho Table A1.19 Overview: Lesotho 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Exports (TWh) -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 Generation capacity - installed (MW) 75 75 75 75 75 Generation capacity - refurbishment (MW) 0 0 0 0 0 Generation capacity - new investments (MW) 0 0 0 0 0 New cross-border Transmission (MW) 0 0 0 0 0 Target Access Rate 6% 17 % 35 % 35 % 35 % Generation capacity Hydro mix (%): 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 % Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Table A1.20 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Lesotho Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) Trade expansion No new projects - - - Trade stagnation No new projects - - - *Only mini-hydro in rural node 15 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.21 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Lesotho Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Rehabilitation cost 0 0 0 0 0 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0 0 0 0 0 New capacity 0 0 0 0 0 Installed capacity 0 0 0 0 0 T&D Investment cost 6 10 0 17 14 Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 Distribution grid 6 6 6 6 3 Urban connection 0 2 5 5 5 Rural connection 0 1 6 6 6 Rehabilitation cost 2 2 2 2 2 Variable cost (existing capacity) 7 7 7 7 7 Total Capital cost 8 12 19 19 16 Investment Cost 6 10 17 17 14 Rehabilitation cost 2 2 2 2 2 Variable cost 7 7 7 7 7 Total 15 18 25 25 22 16 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.22 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Lesotho Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for targets for targets for access Current 35% access access rates, trade access rate access rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rehabilitation cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Existing capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T&D Investment cost 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 Cross-border 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Distribution grid 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 Urban connection 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 Rural connection 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 Rehabilitation cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 Total Capital cost 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 Investment cost 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 Rehabilitation cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Variable cost 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 Total 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 17 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.23 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Lesotho Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 0 1 1 1 Rehabilitation cost 0 0 0 0 0 T&D Investment cost 50 77 134 134 111 Rehabilitation cost 17 17 17 17 17 Total 67 94 151 151 128 Table A1.24 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Lesotho Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rehabilitation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 cost T&D Investment cost 2.3 3.6 6.2 6.2 6.2 Rehabilitation 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 cost Total 3.1 4.3 7.0 7.0 7.2 18 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Malawi Table A1.25 Overview: Malawi 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 1.3 2.1 1.8 0.0 1.3 Exports (TWh) 0.1 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.0 Net exports (TWh) -1.2 -1.7 -1.5 1.6 -1.3 Generation capacity - installed (MW) 175 175 175 175 175 Generation capacity - refurbishment (MW) 100 100 100 100 100 Generation capacity - new investments (MW) 0 0 1 698 1 New cross-border transmission (MW) 177 261 227 0 197 Target access rate 7% 18 % 15 % 15 % 15 % Generation capacity Hyd mix (%): ro 92 % 92 % 91 % 98 % 91 % Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 6% 6% 6% 2% 6% Oth er 3% 3% 3% 1% 3% Table A1.26 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Malawi Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) * Trade expansion No new projects - - ** Trade stagnation Songwe 343 7 Notavailable Kaphichira Phase II 58 4 50 Kholombizo 240 7 391 Fufu 100 6 141 * Plus mini-hydro in rural node ** Borders to Tanzania 19 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.27 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Malawi Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for targets for targets for access Current 35% access access access rates, trade access rate Rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0 0 0.3 135.0 0.3 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 134.8 0 Other 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.3 Rehabilitation cost 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0 0 0 0 0 New capacity 0 0 0 0 0 Installed capacity 0 0 0 0 0 T&D Investment cost 13 34 33 32 31 Cross-border 1 1 1 0 1 Distribution grid 7 7 7 7 5 Urban connection 5 26 17 17 17 Rural connection 1 1 9 9 9 Rehabilitation cost 5 5 5 5 5 Variable cost (existing capacity) 14 14 14 14 14 Total Capital cost 22 43 43 176 41 Investment cost 13 34 34 167 32 Rehabilitation cost 9 9 9 9 9 Variable cost 14 14 14 14 14 Total 35 57 56 190 54 20 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.28 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Malawi Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for Current 35% targets for targets for access access access access access rates, trade rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rehabilitation cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Existing capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T&D Investment cost 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Cross-border 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Distribution grid 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Urban connection 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 Rural connection 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 Rehabilitation cost 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Total Capital cost 0.7 1.4 1.4 5.7 1.4 Investment cost 0.4 1.1 1.1 5.4 1.1 Rehabilitation cost 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Variable cost 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Total 1.2 1.9 1.8 6.2 1.9 21 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.29 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Malawi Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National National National targets for Current access 35% access targets for targets for access rates, rate rate access rates access rates trade expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 0 2 1,039 2 Rehabilitation cost 22 22 22 22 22 T&D Investment cost 103 276 269 261 253 Rehabilitation cost 42 42 42 42 42 Total 167 340 335 1,364 319 Table A1.30 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Malawi Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National National National targets for Current access 35% access targets for targets for access rates, rate rate access rates access rates trade expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.0 0.1 33.8 0.1 Rehabilitation 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 cost T&D Investment cost 3.4 9.0 8.8 8.5 9.0 Rehabilitation 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 cost Total 5.4 11.1 10.9 44.4 11.3 22 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Mozambique Table A1.31 Overview: Mozambique 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 12.7 13.4 13.2 7.0 12.5 Exports (TWh) 19.1 19.2 19.1 9.2 20.2 Net exports (TWh) 6.4 5.8 5.9 2.1 7.7 Generation capacity - installed (MW) 2 174 2 174 2 174 2 174 2 174 Generation capacity - refurbishment (MW) 180 180 180 180 180 Generation capacity - new investments (MW) 3 247 3 248 3 248 2 348 3 248 New cross-border transmission (MW) 1 400 1 400 1 400 0 1 253 Target access rate 14 % 23 % 20 % 20 % 20 % Generation capacity Hydro mix (%): 97 % 97 % 97 % 69 % 97 % Coal 3% 3% 3% 30 % 3% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Table A1.32 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Mozambique Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) Trade expansion Boroma 160 7 150 Mpanda Uncua 1,300 10 2,000 Cahora Bassa North 850 5 771 Lurio 183 4 339 Lupata 654 8 1,215 Mazingir 40 4 55 Mawuzi III 60 3 119 Trade stagnation Boroma 160 7 150 Mpanda Uncua 1,300 10 2,000 * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 23 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.33 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mozambique Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 605.6 605.9 605.9 407.3 605.9 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 202.4 0.0 Hydro 605.6 605.6 605.6 204.6 605.6 Other 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Rehabilitation cost 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 Thermal 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Hydro 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 17.4 17.4 17.4 147.4 17.4 New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 130.0 0.0 Installed capacity 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 T&D Investment cost 47 82 75 58 67 Cross-border 17 17 17 0 16 Distribution grid 17 17 17 17 11 Urban connection 12 34 28 28 28 Rural connection 0 14 13 13 13 Rehabilitation cost 20 20 20 20 20 Variable cost (existing capacity) 43 43 43 43 43 Total Capital cost 682 718 711 494 703 Investment Cost 653 688 681 465 673 Rehabilitation cost 30 30 30 30 30 Variable cost 60 60 60 190 60 Total 742 778 771 685 763 24 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.34 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mozambique Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for 35% targets for targets for access Current access access access rates, trade access rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 6.2 6.2 6.2 4.2 6.8 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 Hydro 6.2 6.2 6.2 2.1 6.8 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rehabilitation cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.5 0.2 New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 Existing capacity 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 T&D Investment cost 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 Cross-border 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 Distribution grid 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Urban connection 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Rural connection 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Rehabilitation cost 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Total Capital cost 7.0 7.3 7.3 5.1 7.9 Investment cost 6.7 7.0 7.0 4.8 7.5 Rehabilitation cost 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Variable cost 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.9 0.7 Total 7.6 8.0 7.9 7.0 8.5 25 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.35 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mozambique Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 4,649.7 4,653 4,652 2,949 4,652 Rehabilitation cost 54 54 54 54 54 T&D Investment cost 379 664 604 464 541 Rehabilitation cost 162 162 162 162 162 Total 5,244 5,532 5,472 3,628 5,408 Table A1.36 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mozambique Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 47.5 % 47.5 % 47.5 % 30.1 % 52.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % T&D Investment cost 3.9 % 6.8 % 6.2 % 4.7 % 6.0 % Rehabilitation cost 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.8 % Total 53.6 % 56.5 % 55.9 % 37.1 % 60.4 % 26 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Namibia Table A1.37 Overview: Namibia 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 4.8 4.8 4.9 1.2 4.4 Exports (TWh) 1.0 1.1 1.1 2.0 1.6 Net Exports (TWh) -3.7 -3.8 -3.8 0.9 -2.8 Generation capacity - installed (MW) 240 240 240 240 240 Generation capacity - refurbishment (MW) 120 120 120 120 120 Generation capacity - new investments (MW) 0 1 2 1 059 2 New cross-border Transmission (MW) 544 550 556 0 498 Target Access Rate 37 % 45 % 53 % 53 % 53 % Generation capacity Hydro mix (%): 67 % 66 % 66 % 31 % 66 % Coal 33 % 33 % 33 % 8% 33 % Gas 0% 0% 0% 60 % 0% Other 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% Table A1.38 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Namibia Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) Trade expansion No new projects - - Trade stagnation Popa Falls 23 4 No estimate Baine* 180 4 320 * Plus mini-hydro in rural node **Borders to Angola 27 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.39 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Namibia Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.4 0.7 129.6 0.7 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.5 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.4 0.0 Other 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 Rehabilitation cost 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 Thermal 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 13.1 13.1 13.1 213.1 13.1 New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 200.1 0.0 Installed capacity 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 T&D Investment cost 98 103 107 77 71 Cross-border 29 29 30 0 26 Distribution grid 67 67 67 67 34 Urban connection 2 3 4 4 4 Rural connection 0 3 7 7 7 Rehabilitation cost 55 55 55 55 55 Variable cost (existing capacity) 102 102 102 102 102 Total Capital cost 159 164 169 268 133 Investment Cost 98 103 108 207 72 Rehabilitation cost 61 61 61 61 61 Variable cost 115 115 115 315 115 Total 274 279 284 583 248 28 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.40 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Namibia Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for Current 35% targets for targets for access access access access access rates, trade rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.3 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.8 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 2.1 % 0.2 % New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.0 % 0.0 % Existing capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % T&D Investment cost 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 % 0.8 % 0.8 % Cross-border 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.0 % 0.3 % Distribution grid 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.4 % Urban connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rural connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.2 % Total Capital cost 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.7 % 2.6 % 1.6 % Investment cost 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 % 2.0 % 0.8 % Rehabilitation cost 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 % Variable cost 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 3.1 % 1.4 % Total 2.7 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 5.8 % 2.9 % 29 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.41 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Namibia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 3 6 939 6 Rehabilitation cost 36 36 36 36 36 T&D Investment cost 787 826 863 623 571 Rehabilitation cost 440 440 440 440 440 Total 1,263 1,305 1,345 2,038 1,052 Table A1.42 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Namibia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 9.3 % 0.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % T&D Investment cost 7.8 % 8.2 % 8.5 % 6.2 % 6.7 % Rehabilitation cost 4.4 % 4.4 % 4.4 % 4.4 % 5.2 % Total 12.5 % 12.9 % 13.3 % 20.2 % 12.4 % 30 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Republic of South Africa Table A1.43 Overview: South Africa 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 38.8 37.2 37.7 21.8 45.1 Exports (TWh) 0.6 0.8 1.4 7.8 1.2 Net exports (TWh) -38.3 -36.4 -36.4 -14.0 -44.0 Generation capacity - installed (MW) 13 463 13 463 13 463 13 463 13 463 Generation capacity - refurbishment (MW) 21 690 21 690 21 690 21 690 21 690 Generation capacity - new investments (MW)* 18 657 19 082 19 399 20 873 7 239 New cross-border transmission (MW) 819 528 547 0 1 647 Target access rate 71 % 79 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Generation capacity Hydro mix (%): 8% 8% 8% 8% 11 % Coal 82 % 82 % 82 % 83 % 77 % Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 9% 9% 9% 9% 12 % * Mmamabula power plant (2 400 MW) is, for modelling purposes, assumed to be located in South Africa (in order to reflect the short distance between the power plant and the point where the power will be fed into the South African transmission grid). Consequently, the investment volumes and costs of Mmamabula are not included in the tables for Botswana, but in the tables for South Africa. Table A1.44 Possible Hydropower Expansion: South Africa Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate (Mill. Scenario Project* (MW) (years) USD) Trade Bramhoek Pumped expansion Storage 1,332 5 1,400 Steelport Pumped Storage 1,000 7 976 Trade stagnation Same * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 31 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.45 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – South Africa Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 2,607.3 2,677.2 2,745.3 2,984.0 776.7 Thermal 2,138.8 2,206.7 2,244.9 2,483.6 276.3 Hydro 313.7 313.7 313.7 313.7 313.7 Other 154.8 156.8 186.7 186.7 186.7 Rehabilitation cost 1,045.5 1,045.5 1,045.5 1,045.5 1,045.5 Thermal 1,013.6 1,013.6 1,013.6 1,013.6 1,013.6 Hydro 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 5,026.4 5,072.0 5,100.9 5,486.9 3,820.3 New capacity 1,985.6 2,048.6 2,084.1 2,305.7 256.5 Installed capacity 3,040.8 3,023.3 3,016.8 3,181.3 3,563.8 T&D Investment cost 1,192 1,229 1,324 1,322 608 Cross-border 2 1 1 0 4 Distribution grid 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 455 Urban connection 18 37 70 70 70 Rural connection 0 18 80 80 80 Rehabilitation cost 800 800 800 800 800 Variable cost (existing capacity) 2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495 Total Capital cost 5,645 5,752 5,914 6,152 3,230 Investment Cost 3,800 3,907 4,069 4,306 1,385 Rehabilitation cost 1,846 1,846 1,846 1,846 1,846 Variable cost 7,521 7,567 7,596 7,982 6,315 Total 13,167 13,319 13,510 14,134 9,546 32 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.46 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – South Africa Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for 35% targets for targets for access Current access access access rates, trade access rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 0.3 % Thermal 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.1 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 % Thermal 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.6 % 1.3 % New capacity 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.1 % Existing capacity 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.2 % T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.2 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Distribution grid 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 % Urban connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rural connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.8 % Total Capital cost 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.7 % 1.8 % 1.1 % Investment cost 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 0.5 % Rehabilitation cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % Variable cost 2.1 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.3 % 2.1 % Total 3.8 % 3.8 % 3.9 % 4.0 % 3.2 % 33 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.47 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – South Africa Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 17,929 18,406 18,894 20,515 5,518 Rehabilitation cost 5,908 5,908 5,908 5,908 5,908 T&D Investment cost 9,605 9,903 10,661 10,651 4,900 Rehabilitation cost 6,445 6,445 6,445 6,445 6,445 Total 39,887 40,662 41,907 43,518 22,770 Table A1.48 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – South Africa Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 5.1 % 5.3 % 5.4 % 5.9 % 1.9 % Rehabilitation cost 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 2.0 % T&D Investment cost 2.7 % 2.8 % 3.0 % 3.0 % 1.6 % Rehabilitation cost 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 2.2 % Total 11.4 % 11.6 % 12.0 % 12.4 % 7.7 % 34 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Zambia Table A1.49 Overview: Zambia 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 41.0 41.1 41.1 2.4 41.1 Exports (TWh) 39.4 39.2 39.3 8.4 40.4 Net Exports (TWh) -1.6 -1.8 -1.8 6.0 -0.7 Generation capacity - installed (MW) 268 268 268 268 268 Generation capacity - refurbishment (MW) 1 670 1 670 1 670 1 670 1 670 Generation capacity - new investments (MW) 0 2 3 1 726 3 New cross-border Transmission (MW) 7 548 7 511 7 526 0 7 694 Target access rate 20 % 29 % 29 % 29 % 29 % Generation capacity Hydro mix (%): 95 % 95 % 95 % 97 % 95 % Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Table A1.50 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Zambia Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) * Trade expansion No new projects - - - Trade stagnation Kafue Gorge Lower 600 6 600 Itezhi Tezi 120 5 142 Kalungwhishi 163 7 210 ** Batoka 800 10 1,250 ** Devils Gorge 300 7 454 * Plus mini-hydro in rural node ** Borders to Zimbabwe 35 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.51 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Zambia Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0 0.6 1.0 302.3 1.0 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 301.4 0 Other 0 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 Rehabilitation cost 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 0 0 0 0 New capacity 0 0 0 0 0 Installed capacity 0 0 0 0 0 T&D Investment cost 193 225 233 92 217 Cross-border 141 142 142 0 141 Distribution grid 43 43 43 43 27 Urban connection 8 16 11 11 11 Rural connection 1 24 38 38 38 Rehabilitation cost 81 81 81 81 81 Variable cost (existing capacity) 99 99 99 99 99 Total Capital cost 330 364 372 532 356 Investment cost 193 226 234 394 218 Rehabilitation cost 138 138 138 138 138 Variable cost 99 99 99 99 99 Total 429 463 471 631 455 36 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.52 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Zambia Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for Current 35% targets for targets for access access access r access access rates, trade rate ate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.8 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.8 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Existing capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % T&D Investment cost 1.8 % 2.1 % 2.2 % 0.9 % 2.3 % Cross-border 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 0.0 % 1.5 % Distribution grid 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % Urban connection 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Rural connection 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Rehabilitation cost 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 % Total Capital cost 3.1 % 3.4 % 3.5 % 5.0 % 3.7 % Investment cost 1.8 % 2.1 % 2.2 % 3.7 % 2.3 % Rehabilitation cost 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.4 % Variable cost 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 % Total 4.0 % 4.3 % 4.4 % 5.9 % 4.7 % 37 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.53 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Zambia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 4 7 2,310 7 Rehabilitation cost 319 319 319 319 319 T&D Investment cost 1,551 1,814 1,881 740 1,747 Rehabilitation cost 655 655 655 655 655 Total 2,524 2,793 2,862 4,023 2,729 Table A1.54 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Zambia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 21.7 % 0.1 % Rehabilitation cost 3.0 % 3.0 % 3.0 % 3.0 % 3.3 % T&D Investment cost 14.6 % 17.0 % 17.7 % 6.9 % 18.1 % Rehabilitation cost 6.1 % 6.1 % 6.1 % 6.1 % 6.8 % Total 23.7 % 26.2 % 26.9 % 37.8 % 28.3 % 38 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Zimbabwe Table A1.55 Overview: Zimbabwe 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 25.9 24.8 25.5 12.4 28.3 Exports (TWh) 23.1 21.6 22.0 8.8 27.7 Net Exports (TWh) -2.7 -3.2 -3.5 -3.6 -0.6 Generation capacity - installed (MW) 0 0 0 0 0 Generation capacity - refurbishment (MW) 1 835 1 835 1 835 1 835 1 835 Generation capacity - new investments (MW) 2 225 2 228 2 251 2 158 2 251 New cross-border Transmission (MW) 3 388 2 979 3 072 0 4 371 Target Access Rate 41 % 49 % 67 % 67 % 67 % Generation capacity Hydro mix (%): 74 % 73 % 73 % 47 % 73 % Coal 26 % 26 % 26 % 52 % 26 % Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 39 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.56 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Zimbabwe Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate (Mill. Scenario Project* (MW) (years) USD) Trade Gairezi 35 2 35 expansion Condo 100 100 ** Batoka 800 10 1,250 ** Devils Gorge 300 7 454 ** Mupata Gorge 300 7 454 Victoria Falls** 390 7 590 Kariba South 300 3 200 Extension Trade Gairezi 35 2 35 stagnation Condo 100 100 ** Batoka 800 10 1,250 ** Devils Gorge 300 7 454 * Plus mini-hydro in rural node ** Borders to Zambia 40 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.57 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Zimbabwe Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 402.5 403.7 411.7 375.5 411.7 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 165.2 0.0 Hydro 402.5 402.5 402.5 201.2 402.5 Other 0.0 1.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 Rehabilitation cost 97.4 97.4 97.4 97.4 97.4 Thermal 57.1 57.1 57.1 57.1 57.1 Hydro 40.4 40.4 40.4 40.4 40.4 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 116.9 116.9 116.9 223.0 116.9 New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 106.1 0.0 Installed capacity 116.9 116.9 116.9 116.9 116.9 T&D Investment cost 115 145 238 201 214 Cross-border 41 36 37 0 52 Distribution grid 75 75 75 75 36 Urban connection 0 19 20 20 20 Rural connection 0 15 106 106 106 Rehabilitation cost 160 160 160 160 160 Variable cost (existing capacity) 185 185 185 185 185 Total Capital cost 775 807 907 834 883 Investment Cost 518 549 650 577 626 Rehabilitation cost 257 257 257 257 257 Variable cost 302 302 302 408 302 Total 1,077 1,109 1,210 1,243 1,186 41 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.58 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Zimbabwe Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 8.5 % 8.6 % 8.7 % 8.0 % 9.9 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 3.5 % 0.0 % Hydro 8.5 % 8.5 % 8.5 % 4.3 % 9.7 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Rehabilitation cost 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.3 % Thermal 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.4 % Hydro 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 4.7 % 2.8 % New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.3 % 0.0 % Installed capacity 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.8 % T&D Investment cost 2.4 % 3.1 % 5.1 % 4.3 % 5.1 % Cross-border 0.9 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.0 % 1.2 % Distribution grid 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 0.9 % Urban connection 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % Rural connection 0.0 % 0.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.5 % Rehabilitation cost 3.4 % 3.4 % 3.4 % 3.4 % 3.8 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 3.9 % 3.9 % 3.9 % 3.9 % 4.4 % Total Capital cost 16.4 % 17.1 % 19.2 % 17.7 % 21.2 % Investment Cost 11.0 % 11.7 % 13.8 % 12.2 % 15.0 % Rehabilitation cost 5.5 % 5.5 % 5.5 % 5.5 % 6.2 % Variable cost 6.4 % 6.4 % 6.4 % 8.7 % 7.3 % Total 22.9 % 23.5 % 25.7 % 26.4 % 28.4 % 42 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.59 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Zimbabwe Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 3,081.6 3,091 3,152 2,733 3,152 Rehabilitation cost 551 551 551 551 551 T&D Investment cost 927 1,172 1,919 1,621 1,726 Rehabilitation cost 1,288 1,288 1,288 1,288 1,288 Total 5,848 6,101 6,909 6,192 6,716 Table A1.60 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Zimbabwe Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 65.4 % 65.6 % 66.9 % 58.0 % 75.6 % Rehabilitation 11.7 % 11.7 % 11.7 % 11.7 % 13.2 % cost T&D Investment cost 19.7 % 24.9 % 40.7 % 34.4 % 41.4 % Rehabilitation 27.3 % 27.3 % 27.3 % 27.3 % 30.9 % cost Total 124.1 % 129.4 % 146.6 % 131.4 % 161.1 % 43 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Nile Basin – East Africa Power Pool Burundi Table A1.61 Overview: Burundi 2015 Trade Trade Low growth expansion stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.8 Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 Net Exports (TWh) -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 0.0 -0.6 Generation capacity - 13 13 13 13 13 installed (MW) Generation capacity - 18 18 18 18 18 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 0 15 30 173 30 investments (MW) New cross-border Transmission 39 86 78 0 66 (MW) Target Access Rate 6% 25 % 31 % 31 % 31 % Generation capacity Hydro 84 % 56 % 43 % 60 % 43 % mix (%): Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 16 % 44 % 57 % 40 % 57 % 44 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.62 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Burundi Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) Trade expansion No new projects* - - - Trade stagnation Ruzizi III ** 27 4 32 Rusumo Falls *** 21 5 38 Kabu 16 20 5 44 Kaganuzi Complex 39 5 162 * Plus mini-hydro in rural node ** Borders to DRC and Rwanda *** Borders to Tanzania and Rwanda 45 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.63 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Burundi Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for Current National National access access 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 5.9 11.4 71.7 11.4 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.8 0.0 Other 0.0 5.9 11.4 29.9 11.4 Rehabilitation cost 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.4 0.4 0.5 2.0 0.5 New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 Installed capacity 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.4 T&D Investment cost 7 47 69 68 68 Cross-border grid 0 1 1 0 0 Distribution grid 3 3 3 3 2 Urban connection 4 14 8 8 8 Rural connection 0 29 57 57 57 Rehabilitation cost 1 1 1 1 1 Variable cost (existing capacity) 4 4 4 4 4 Total Capital cost 10 55 82 142 82 Investment Cost 7 53 80 140 80 Rehabilitation cost 2 2 2 2 2 Variable cost 4 4 4 6 4 Total 14 59 87 148 86 46 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.64 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Burundi Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for targets for targets for access Current 35% access access rates, trade access rate access rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.9 % 5.7 % 1.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 3.3 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.9 % 2.4 % 1.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.0 % New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Existing capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % T&D Investment cost 0.6 % 3.7 % 5.5 % 5.5 % 5.8 % Cross-border grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Distribution grid 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Urban connection 0.3 % 1.1 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % Rural connection 0.0 % 2.3 % 4.6 % 4.6 % 4.9 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Total Capital cost 0.8 % 4.4 % 6.6 % 11.4 % 7.0 % Investment cost 0.6 % 4.2 % 6.4 % 11.2 % 6.8 % Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Variable cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.4 % Total 1.1 % 4.7 % 6.9 % 11.8 % 7.4 % 47 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.65 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Burundi Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for Current National National access rates, access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.3 43 83 558 83 Rehabilitation cost 5 5 5 5 5 T&D Investment cost 59 385 571 567 567 Rehabilitation cost 9 9 9 9 9 Total 75 443 669 1,140 665 Table A1.66 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Burundi Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for Current National National access rates, access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 3.4 % 6.7 % 44.6 % 7.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % T&D Investment cost 4.8 % 30.8 % 45.6 % 45.3 % 48.3 % Rehabilitation cost 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % Total 6.0 % 35.4 % 53.5 % 91.1 % 56.7 % 48 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Djibouti Table A1.67 Overview: Djibouti 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Generation capacity - 85 85 85 85 85 installed (MW) Generation capacity - 0 0 0 0 0 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 45 53 54 54 60 investments (MW) New cross-border Transmission 0 0 0 0 0 (MW) Target Access Rate 31 % 50 % 53 % 53 % 53 % Generation capacity Hydro 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% mix (%): Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Table A1.68 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Djibouti Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) Trade expansion No new projects - - - Trade stagnation No new projects - - - * Only mini-hydro in rural node 49 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.69 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Djibouti Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for 35% targets for targets for access Current access access access rates, trade access rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 18.8 22.1 22.5 22.5 24.8 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 18.8 22.1 22.5 22.5 24.8 Rehabilitation cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 New capacity 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 Installed capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T&D Investment cost 1 3 4 4 4 Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 Distribution grid 0 0 0 0 0 Urban connection 1 3 3 3 3 Rural connection 0 0 1 1 1 Rehabilitation cost 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (existing capacity) 1 1 1 1 1 Total Capital cost 20 26 27 27 29 Investment cost 20 25 27 27 29 Rehabilitation cost 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost 2 2 2 2 2 Total 22 27 29 29 31 50 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.70 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Djibouti Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for Current 35% targets for targets for access access access access access rates, trade rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 1.9 % 2.2 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.7 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 1.9 % 2.2 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.7 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Existing capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % T&D Investment cost 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Distribution grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Urban connection 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Rural connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Total Capital cost 2.0 % 2.6 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 3.2 % Investment cost 2.0 % 2.6 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 3.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Total 2.2 % 2.8 % 2.9 % 2.9 % 3.4 % 51 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.71 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Djibouti Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 136 160 163 163 179 Rehabilitation cost 0 0 0 0 0 T&D Investment cost 9 27 34 34 33 Rehabilitation cost 2 2 2 2 2 Total 146 189 199 199 215 Table A1.72 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Djibouti Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 13.8 % 16.2 % 16.5 % 16.5 % 19.5 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % T&D Investment cost 0.9 % 2.8 % 3.5 % 3.5 % 3.6 % Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Total 14.9 % 19.2 % 20.2 % 20.2 % 23.3 % 52 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Egypt Table A1.73 Overview: Egypt 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 55.2 46.5 43.2 1.0 44.6 Exports (TWh) 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Net Exports (TWh) -54.8 -45.5 -42.2 0.0 -43.7 Generation capacity - installed 17 103 17 103 17 103 17 103 17 103 (MW) Generation capacity - 113 113 113 113 113 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 6 988 8 163 8 529 11 439 6 609 investments (MW) New cross-border Transmission 10 000 10 000 10 000 0 10 000 (MW) Target Access Rate 93 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Generation capacity Hydro 12 % 12 % 11 % 10 % 12 % mix (%): Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 87 % 88 % 88 % 89 % 87 % Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Table A1.74 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Egypt Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) Trade expansion No new projects* - - - Trade stagnation No new projects* - - - *Only mini-hydro in rural node 53 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.75 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Egypt Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for Current National National access access 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 692 827 862 1 143 677 Thermal 669 775 810 1 091 625 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 23 52 52 52 52 Rehabilitation cost 3 3 3 3 3 Thermal 3 3 3 3 3 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 4 552 5 188 5 399 8 429 4 296 New capacity 3 979 4 616 4 826 6 496 3 724 Installed 573 573 573 1 933 573 capacity T&D Investment cost 287 367 367 367 315 Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 Distribution grid 130 130 130 130 78 Urban connection 92 92 92 92 92 Rural connection 65 145 145 145 145 Rehabilitation cost 172 172 172 172 172 Variable cost (existing capacity) 310 310 310 310 310 Total Capital cost 1,155 1,369 1,405 1,686 1,167 Investment cost 979 1,194 1,229 1,510 991 Rehabilitation cost 175 175 175 175 175 Variable cost 4,862 5,498 5,708 8,739 4,606 Total 6,016 6,867 7,113 10,424 5,773 54 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.76 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015 – Egypt Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for 35% targets for targets for access Current access access access rates, trade access rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.9 % 0.6 % Thermal 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.8 % 0.5 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 3.4 % 3.9 % 4.0 % 6.3 % 3.6 % New capacity 3.0 % 3.4 % 3.6 % 4.8 % 3.1 % Existing capacity 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 1.4 % 0.5 % T&D Investment cost 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Distribution grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Urban connection 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Rural connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % Total Capital cost 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.0 % Investment cost 0.7 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.1 % 0.8 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost 3.6 % 4.1 % 4.3 % 6.5 % 3.8 % Total 4.5 % 5.1 % 5.3 % 7.8 % 4.8 % 55 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.77 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Egypt Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 4,795.6 5,721 5,966 7,916 4,679 Rehabilitation cost 19 19 19 19 19 T&D Investment cost 2,349 3,035 3,035 3,035 2,612 Rehabilitation cost 1,386 1,386 1,386 1,386 1,386 Total 8,549 10,160 10,406 12,356 8,696 Table A1.78 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Egypt Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 3.6 % 4.3 % 4.4 % 5.9 % 3.9 % Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost T&D Investment cost 1.8 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.2 % Rehabilitation 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 % cost Total 6.4 % 7.6 % 7.8 % 9.2 % 7.2 % 56 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Ethiopia Table A1.79 Overview: Ethiopia 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 0.0 1.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 Exports (TWh) 30.9 29.6 29.6 3.3 30.0 Net Exports (TWh) 30.9 28.5 26.2 -0.1 26.6 Generation capacity - installed 831 831 831 831 831 (MW) Generation capacity - 335 335 335 335 335 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 8 157 8 323 8 699 1 933 8 699 investments (MW) New cross-border Transmission 3 527 3 258 2 997 0 3 048 (MW) Target Access Rate 15 % 32 % 60 % 60 % 60 % Generation capacity Hydro 100 % 98 % 94 % 81 % 94 % mix (%): Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 2% 6% 19 % 6% 57 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.80 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Ethiopia Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate (Mill. Scenario Project* (MW) (years) USD) Trade Mandaya 2,000 8 247 expansion Baro 2 + Genji 700 7 502 Geba (1 & 2) 372 6 361 Halele Wrabesa (1 & 422 5 474 2) Karadobi 1,600 8 2,040 Genale III 258 5 304 Border 1,200 6 1,626 Beles 220 4 294 Chemoga Yeda (1&2) 281 4 403 Neshe 43 3 69 Genale IV 256 4 383 Alethu West 265 6 561 Alethu East I 186 6 438 Gojeb 153 5 287 Baro 1 200 5 505 Trade Mandaya 2,000 8 247 stagnation * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 58 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.81 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Ethiopia Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 1,135.5 1,199.8 1,344.9 403.1 1,344.9 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 1,135.3 1,135.3 1,135.3 193.5 1,135.3 Other 0.2 64.5 209.6 209.6 209.6 Rehabilitation cost 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 133.2 141.3 159.5 62.4 159.5 New capacity 97.0 123.1 141.4 28.6 123.3 Installed capacity 36.3 18.2 18.2 33.8 36.3 T&D Investment cost 206 687 1,658 1,598 1,636 Cross-border 71 66 61 0 62 Distribution grid 69 69 69 69 46 Urban connection 64 120 120 120 120 Rural connection 2 431 1,408 1,408 1,408 Rehabilitation cost 84 84 84 84 84 Variable cost (existing capacity) 116 116 116 116 116 Total Capital cost 1,444 1,989 3,105 2,103 3,083 Investment Cost 1,342 1,887 3,003 2,001 2,981 Rehabilitation cost 102 102 102 102 102 Variable cost 249 257 276 178 276 Total 1,693 2,246 3,381 2,281 3,359 59 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.82 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Ethiopia Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for 35% targets for targets for access Current access access access rates, trade access rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 6.2 % 6.5 % 7.3 % 2.2 % 8.2 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 6.2 % 6.2 % 6.2 % 1.1 % 7.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.4 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.3 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 0.3 % 1.0 % New capacity 0.5 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.2 % 0.8 % Existing capacity 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % T&D Investment cost 1.1 % 3.7 % 9.0 % 8.7 % 10.0 % Cross-border 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.0 % 0.4 % Distribution grid 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % Urban connection 0.3 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % Rural connection 0.0 % 2.3 % 7.7 % 7.7 % 8.6 % Rehabilitation cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 % Total Capital cost 7.9 % 10.8 % 16.9 % 11.4 % 18.9 % Investment cost 7.3 % 10.3 % 16.3 % 10.9 % 18.3 % Rehabilitation cost 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % Variable cost 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.0 % 1.7 % Total 9.2 % 12.2 % 18.4 % 12.4 % 20.6 % 60 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.83 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Ethiopia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for Current National National access rates, access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 8,500.1 8,972 10,037 2,987 10,037 Rehabilitation cost 101 101 101 101 101 T&D Investment cost 1,660 5,623 13,649 13,161 13,471 Rehabilitation cost 679 679 679 679 679 Total 10,940 15,375 24,466 16,928 24,288 Table A1.84 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Ethiopia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for Current National National access rates, access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 46.3 % 48.8 % 54.6 % 16.3 % 61.5 % Rehabilitation cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % T&D Investment cost 9.0 % 30.6 % 74.3 % 71.6 % 82.5 % Rehabilitation cost 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 4.2 % Total 59.6 % 83.7 % 133.2 % 92.2 % 148.8 % 61 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Kenya Table A1.85 Overview: Kenya 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 2.0 0.5 3.3 1.0 2.7 Exports (TWh) 3.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 Net Exports (TWh) 1.3 -0.4 -2.8 -0.5 -2.2 Generation capacity - installed 695 695 695 695 695 (MW) Generation capacity - 383 389 389 395 389 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 901 913 987 1 237 987 investments (MW) New cross-border Transmission 600 0 266 0 201 (MW) Target Access Rate 27 % 42 % 67 % 67 % 67 % Generation capacity Hydro 44 % 44 % 42 % 36 % 42 % mix (%): Coal 34 % 34 % 32 % 28 % 32 % Gas 7% 7% 7% 20 % 7% Other 14 % 15 % 19 % 17 % 19 % Table A1.86 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Kenya Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) Trade expansion No new projects* - - - Trade stagnation No new projects* - - - *Only mini-hydro in rural node 62 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.87 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Kenya Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 231 235 264 288 264 Thermal 81 81 81 105 81 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 150 155 183 183 183 Rehabilitation cost 20 21 21 21 21 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 20 20 20 20 20 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 144 144 144 298 144 New capacity 131 131 131 282 131 Installed capacity 13 13 13 16 13 T&D Investment cost 132 214 412 409 397 Cross-border 15 0 3 0 2 Distribution grid 65 65 65 65 50 Urban connection 51 120 200 200 200 Rural connection 1 29 144 144 144 Rehabilitation cost 48 48 48 48 48 Variable cost (existing capacity) 130 130 130 130 130 Total Capital cost 431 518 745 766 730 Investment Cost 362 450 676 697 661 Rehabilitation cost 68 69 69 69 69 Variable cost 274 274 274 428 274 Total 705 792 1,019 1,194 1,004 63 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.88 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Kenya Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% targets for targets for rates, access access access access trade rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.0 % Thermal 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.3 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 1.0 % 0.5 % New capacity 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 1.0 % 0.5 % Existing capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % T&D Investment cost 0.5 % 0.7 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 % Cross-border 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Distribution grid 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Urban connection 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % Rural connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % Total Capital cost 1.5 % 1.8 % 2.6 % 2.7 % 2.7 % Investment cost 1.3 % 1.6 % 2.3 % 2.4 % 2.5 % Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % Variable cost 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.5 % 1.0 % Total 2.4 % 2.8 % 3.5 % 4.2 % 3.7 % 64 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.89 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Kenya Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 1,628.9 1,664 1,875 2,042 1,875 Rehabilitation cost 115 118 118 119 118 T&D Investment cost 1,062 1,732 3,353 3,329 3,231 Rehabilitation cost 387 387 387 387 387 Total 3,193 3,901 5,733 5,878 5,611 Table A1.90 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Kenya Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 5.7 % 5.8 % 6.5 % 7.1 % 7.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % T&D Investment cost 3.7 % 6.0 % 11.7 % 11.6 % 12.0 % Rehabilitation cost 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.4 % Total 11.1 % 13.6 % 19.9 % 20.4 % 20.9 % 65 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Rwanda Table A1.91 Overview: Rwanda 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Exports (TWh) 1.1 0.7 1.1 0.0 1.1 Net Exports (TWh) 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.0 1.1 Generation capacity - installed 25 25 25 25 25 (MW) Generation capacity - 24 24 24 24 24 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 327 330 330 94 330 investments (MW) New cross-border Transmission 120 90 120 0 124 (MW) Target Access Rate 16 % 29 % 18 % 18 % 18 % Generation capacity Hydro 95 % 95 % 95 % 86 % 95 % mix (%): Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 5% 5% 5% 14 % 5% Table A1.92 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Rwanda Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) ** Trade expansion Ruzizi III 27 4 32 *** Ruzizi Div. 135 6 160 ** Rusumo Falls 31 5 57 *** Sici 3 87 3 203 Nyabarongo 28 4 111 *** Panzi 19 4 69 ** Trade stagnation Ruzizi III 27 4 32 ** Ruzizi Div. 135 6 160 * Plus mini-hydro in rural node ** Borders to DRC and Burundi *** Borders to DRC **** Borders to Tanzania and Burundi 66 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.93 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Rwanda Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 80.8 81.7 81.8 23.6 81.8 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 80.8 80.8 80.8 22.6 80.8 Other 0.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Rehabilitation cost 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 5.8 5.8 5.8 2.0 5.8 New capacity 4.8 4.8 4.8 1.0 4.8 Installed capacity 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 T&D Investment cost 16 36 21 20 19 Cross-border 1 1 1 0 1 Distribution grid 3 3 3 3 1 Urban connection 13 28 13 13 13 Rural connection 0 4 5 5 5 Rehabilitation cost 2 2 2 2 2 Variable cost (existing capacity) 5 5 5 5 5 Total Capital cost 100 121 106 47 104 Investment Cost 97 117 103 44 101 Rehabilitation cost 3 3 3 3 3 Variable cost 11 11 11 7 11 Total 111 131 116 53 115 67 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.94 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Rwanda Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for Current 35% targets for targets for access access access access access rates, trade rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 0.7 % 2.6 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 0.6 % 2.6 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.2 % New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.2 % Existing capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % T&D Investment cost 0.5 % 1.0 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Distribution grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Urban connection 0.4 % 0.8 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Rural connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % Total Capital cost 2.9 % 3.4 % 3.0 % 1.3 % 3.4 % Investment cost 2.8 % 3.3 % 2.9 % 1.2 % 3.3 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.3 % Total 3.2 % 3.7 % 3.3 % 1.5 % 3.7 % 68 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.95 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Rwanda Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 631.4 638 639 184 639 Rehabilitation cost 7 7 7 7 7 T&D Investment cost 132 288 169 162 157 Rehabilitation cost 16 16 16 16 16 Total 786 949 831 368 818 Table A1.96 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015)– Rwanda Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 18.0 % 18.2 % 18.2 % 5.2 % 20.7 % Rehabilitation 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % cost T&D Investment cost 3.8 % 8.2 % 4.8 % 4.6 % 5.1 % Rehabilitation 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % cost Total 22.4 % 27.1 % 23.7 % 10.5 % 26.5 % 69 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Sudan Table A1.97 Overview: Sudan 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 39.0 31.2 29.2 0.2 30.0 Exports (TWh) 54.8 45.7 42.4 0.2 43.8 Net Exports (TWh) 15.8 14.5 13.1 0.0 13.9 Generation capacity - installed 2 554 2 554 2 554 2 554 2 554 (MW) Generation capacity - 0 0 0 0 0 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 3 676 3 709 3 704 568 3 704 investments (MW) New cross-border Transmission 14 567 13 675 13 491 0 13 397 (MW) Target Access Rate 34 % 50 % 60 % 60 % 60 % Generation capacity Hydro 87 % 87 % 87 % 73 % 87 % mix (%): Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 6% 6% 6% 13 % 6% Other 6% 7% 7% 14 % 7% 70 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.98 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Sudan Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate (Mill. Scenario Project* (MW) (years) USD) Trade expansion Shirri 400 8 549 Shukoli 210 8 420 Lakki 210 8 429 Bedden 400 8 880 Fula I 720 8 1,319 Morgat 240 4 595 Roseires ext. + Dinder 135 4 173 Dal Low 340 6 1,096 Dagash 285 6 1,048 Sabaloka 120 3 396 Shereiq 315 6 1,190 Kabjar 300 7 1,125 Trade stagnation Shirri 400 8 549 Shukoli 210 8 420 * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 71 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.99 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Sudan Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 1,166 1,179 1,177 182 1,177 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 1,166 1,166 1,166 171 1,166 Other 0 13 11 11 11 Rehabilitation cost 0 13 11 11 11 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 88 90 90 37 90 New capacity 51 53 52 1 50 Installed 37 37 37 36 40 capacity T&D Investment cost 161 297 340 303 318 Cross-border 50 39 37 0 37 Distribution grid 59 59 59 59 37 Urban connection 48 104 166 166 166 Rural connection 4 94 78 78 78 Rehabilitation cost 43 43 43 43 43 Variable cost (existing capacity) 97 97 97 97 97 Total Capital cost 1,370 1,519 1,560 529 1,538 Investment cost 1,327 1,476 1,517 485 1,495 Rehabilitation cost 43 43 43 43 43 Variable cost 186 187 187 135 187 Total 1,556 1,707 1,748 663 1,725 72 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.100 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Sudan Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for targets for targets for access Current 35% access access rates, trade access rate access rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 2.6 % 2.6 % 2.6 % 0.4 % 3.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 2.6 % 2.6 % 2.6 % 0.4 % 3.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.2 % New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Existing capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % T&D Investment cost 0.4 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.7 % 0.8 % Cross-border 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Distribution grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Urban connection 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Rural connection 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Total Capital cost 3.1 % 3.4 % 3.5 % 1.2 % 3.9 % Investment cost 3.0 % 3.3 % 3.4 % 1.1 % 3.8 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.5 % Total 3.5 % 3.8 % 3.9 % 1.5 % 4.4 % 73 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.101 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Sudan Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 9,223.7 9,318 9,304 1,434 9,304 Rehabilitation cost 0 0 0 0 0 T&D Investment cost 1,299 2,410 2,754 2,457 2,576 Rehabilitation cost 348 348 348 348 348 Total 10,870 12,076 12,406 4,239 12,228 Table A1.102 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Sudan Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 20.6 % 20.8 % 20.7 % 3.2 % 23.6 % Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost T&D Investment cost 2.9 % 5.4 % 6.1 % 5.5 % 6.5 % Rehabilitation 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 % cost Total 24.2 % 26.9 % 27.7 % 9.5 % 31.1 % 74 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Tanzania Table A1.103 Overview: Tanzania 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets targets for access rates for access access rates, rates trade expansion Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 Exports (TWh) 2.1 0.1 2.9 0.5 2.3 Net Exports (TWh) 2.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 1.8 Generation capacity - installed 468 468 468 468 468 (MW) Generation capacity - 305 305 305 305 305 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 1 753 1 862 2 046 1 767 1 864 investments (MW) New cross-border Transmission 224 0 266 0 201 (MW) Target Access Rate 13 % 30 % 29 % 29 % 29 % Generation capacity Hydro 68 % 65 % 61 % 67 % 65 % mix (%): Coal 24 % 23 % 21 % 20 % 23 % Gas 9% 12 % 14 % 9% 9% Other 0% 0% 4% 4% 4% Table A1.104 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Tanzania Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) ** Trade expansion Ruzumo 62 5 *** Songwe 330 7 Mpanga 144 8 191 Masigira 118 7 157 Rumakali 222 10 351 Ruhudji 358 8 611 Trade stagnation Same - - - * Plus mini-hydro in rural node ** Borders to Rwanda and Burundi *** Borders to Malawi 75 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.105 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Tanzania Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 243.2 254.9 302.5 269.6 285.0 Thermal 97.1 107.3 115.2 82.3 97.7 Hydro 146.1 146.1 146.1 146.1 146.1 Other 0.0 1.5 41.2 41.2 41.2 Rehabilitation cost 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hydro 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 131.6 180.9 219.5 115.4 134.3 New capacity 113.7 171.9 201.6 97.4 125.3 Installed capacity 17.9 9.0 17.9 17.9 9.0 T&D Investment cost 63 156 276 265 263 Cross-border 10 0 12 0 9 Distribution grid 29 29 29 29 18 Urban connection 24 118 51 51 51 Rural connection 0 9 184 184 184 Rehabilitation cost 36 36 36 36 36 Variable cost (existing capacity) 60 60 60 60 60 Total Capital cost 358 463 631 586 600 Investment cost 306 411 579 534 548 Rehabilitation cost 52 52 52 52 52 Variable cost 192 241 280 176 195 Total 550 704 911 762 794 76 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.106 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Tanzania Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National National National targets for 35% targets for targets for access Current access access access rates, trade access rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 1.3 % 1.4 % 1.6 % 1.4 % 1.7 % Thermal 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.4 % 0.6 % Hydro 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.2 % 0.6 % 0.8 % New capacity 0.6 % 0.9 % 1.1 % 0.5 % 0.7 % Existing capacity 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 0.8 % 1.5 % 1.4 % 1.6 % Cross-border 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Distribution grid 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % Urban connection 0.1 % 0.6 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Rural connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 % Total Capital cost 1.9 % 2.5 % 3.4 % 3.1 % 3.5 % Investment cost 1.6 % 2.2 % 3.1 % 2.8 % 3.2 % Rehabilitation cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Variable cost 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.5 % 0.9 % 1.2 % Total 2.9 % 3.7 % 4.8 % 4.0 % 4.7 % 77 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.107 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Tanzania Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 1,742.4 1,824 2,174 1,948 2,052 Rehabilitation cost 92 92 92 92 92 T&D Investment cost 507 1,257 2,294 2,199 2,184 Rehabilitation cost 289 289 289 289 289 Total 2,630 3,461 4,849 4,527 4,617 Table A1.108 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Tanzania Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 9.3 % 9.7 % 11.5 % 10.3 % 12.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % T&D Investment cost 2.7 % 6.7 % 12.2 % 11.7 % 12.9 % Rehabilitation cost 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.7 % Total 14.0 % 18.4 % 25.7 % 24.0 % 27.3 % 78 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Uganda Table A1.109 Overview: Uganda 2015 Trade expansion Trade Low growth stagnation Current 35% access National National National access rate rate targets for targets for targets for access rates access rates access rates, trade expansion Imports (TWh) 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.4 1.0 Exports (TWh) 4.9 3.2 3.6 0.8 3.9 Net Exports (TWh) 4.1 2.7 2.8 0.4 2.9 Generation capacity - installed (MW) 358 358 358 358 358 Generation capacity - refurbishment (MW) 191 191 191 191 191 Generation capacity - new investments (MW) 1 198 1 271 1 258 707 1 258 New cross-border Transmission (MW) 745 421 537 0 407 Target Access Rate 8% 27 % 25 % 25 % 25 % Generation capacity Hydro mix (%): 94 % 90 % 91 % 87 % 91 % Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 6% 10 % 9% 13 % 9% Table A1.110 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Uganda Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD) Trade expansion Bujagali # 5 50 4 31 Kalagala tot 450 8 512 Murchison Base 2 222 10 397 Ayago North 304 8 730 Bygoe 13 3 25 Bujagali 200 4 526 Trade stagnation Bujagali # 5 50 4 31 Kalagala tot 450 8 512 Murchison Base 2 222 10 397 * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 79 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.111 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Uganda Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for Current National National access access 35% access targets for targets for rates, trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 289 317 312 179 312 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 289 289 289 156 289 Other 0 29 24 24 24 Rehabilitation cost 10 10 10 10 10 Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 10 10 10 10 10 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 27 27 27 18 27 New capacity 12 12 19 3 19 Installed 14 14 7 14 7 capacity T&D Investment cost 58 203 186 174 179 Cross-border grid 16 10 12 0 9 Distribution grid 23 23 23 23 19 Urban connection 13 54 54 54 54 Rural connection 6 116 96 96 96 Rehabilitation cost 28 28 28 28 28 Variable cost (existing capacity) 39 39 39 39 39 Total Capital cost 385 559 536 391 529 Investment Cost 347 520 498 353 491 Rehabilitation cost 38 38 38 38 38 Variable cost 65 65 65 56 65 Total 451 624 601 448 594 80 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.112 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Uganda Trade Trade Low expansion stagnation growth National targets for National National access Current 35% targets for targets for rates, access access access access trade rate rate rates rates expansion Generation Investment cost 2.0 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 1.2 % 2.3 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 2.0 % 2.0 % 2.0 % 1.1 % 2.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.2 % New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Existing capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % T&D Investment cost 0.4 % 1.4 % 1.3 % 1.2 % 1.3 % Cross-border grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Distribution grid 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % Urban connection 0.1 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Rural connection 0.0 % 0.8 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Variable cost (existing capacity) 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Total Capital cost 2.7 % 3.9 % 3.7 % 2.7 % 3.9 % Investment cost 2.4 % 3.6 % 3.5 % 2.5 % 3.6 % Rehabilitation cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.4 % 0.5 % Total 3.1 % 4.3 % 4.2 % 3.1 % 4.4 % 81 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.113 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Uganda Trade Tradeexpansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 2,255.0 2,463 2,426 1,389 2,426 Rehabilitation cost 57 57 57 57 57 T&D Investment cost 472 1,672 1,525 1,429 1,470 Rehabilitation cost 226 226 226 226 226 Total 3,010 4,419 4,234 3,101 4,180 Table A1.114 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Uganda Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 15.7 % 17.1 % 16.9 % 9.7 % 17.9 % Rehabilitation cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % T&D Investment cost 3.3 % 11.6 % 10.6 % 9.9 % 10.9 % Rehabilitation cost 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.7 % Total 21.0 % 30.8 % 29.5 % 21.6 % 30.9 % 82 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Western Africa Power Pool Benin Table A1.115 Overview: Benin 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.9 Exports (TWh) 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net exports (TWh) -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -0.4 -0.8 Generation capacity - installed (MW) 75 75 75 75 75 Generation capacity - refurbishment (MW) 112 112 112 112 112 Generation capacity - new investments (MW) 0 3 4 76 4 New cross-border transmission (MW) 162 81 160 0 92 Target Access Rate 25 % 35 % 50 % 50 % 50 % Generation capacity mix (%): Hydro 17 % 16 % 16 % 12 % 16 % Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 28 % 0% Other 83 % 84 % 84 % 61 % 84 % Table A1.116 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Benin Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new expansion projects* - - - Trade No new stagnation projects* - - - * Only mini-hydro in rural node 83 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.117 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Benin Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 1 1 8 1 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 7 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 1 1 1 1 Rehabilitation 4 4 4 4 4 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 2 2 2 2 2 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 57 57 57 94 57 New capacity 0 0 0 37 0 Installed 57 57 57 57 57 capacity Investment 28 45 66 65 61 T&D cost Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 grid Distribution 18 18 18 18 13 grid Urban 8 18 35 35 35 connection Rural 2 9 12 12 12 connection Rehabilitation 15 15 15 15 15 cost Variable cost (existing 36 36 36 36 36 capacity) Total Capital cost 47 65 86 93 81 Investment 28 46 67 74 62 Cost Rehabilitation 19 19 19 19 19 cost Variable cost 93 93 93 130 93 TOTAL 140 158 179 223 174 84 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.118 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Benin Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.4 % 0.9 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.6 % 0.0 % Existing 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.4 % 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 % grid Urban 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.4 % 1.3 % Investment 0.4 % 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.1 % 1.0 % cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % cost Variable cost 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 2.0 % 1.5 % Total 2.1 % 2.4 % 2.7 % 3.4 % 2.9 % 85 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.119 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Benin Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 1.2 8 10 59 10 Generation cost Rehabilitation 23 23 23 23 23 cost Investment 227 363 528 527 489 T&D cost Rehabilitation 120 120 120 120 120 cost Total 371 514 681 729 642 Table A1.120 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Benin Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.9 % 0.2 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 % cost Investment 3.5 % 5.5 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 8.1 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 2.0 % cost Total 5.7 % 7.8 % 10.4 % 11.1 % 10.6 % 86 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Burkina Faso Table A1.121 Overview: Burkina Faso 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 Exports (TWh) 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net exports (TWh) -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 Generation capacity - installed 66 66 66 66 66 (MW) Generation capacity - 95 95 95 95 95 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 0 1 0 0 0 investments (MW) New cross-border 117 50 0 0 0 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 9% 20 % 23 % 23 % 23 % Generation capacity 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 61 % 61 % 61 % 61 % 61 % Table A1.122 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Burkina Faso Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new expansion projects* - - - Trade No new stagnation projects* - - - * Only mini-hydro in rural node 87 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.123 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Burkina Faso Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 0 0 0 0 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Rehabilitation 4 4 4 4 4 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 3 3 3 3 3 Other 1 1 1 1 1 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 24 39 39 39 39 New capacity 0 0 0 0 0 Installed 24 39 39 39 39 capacity Investment 21 44 50 50 49 T&D cost Cross-border 3 1 0 0 0 grid Distribution 10 10 10 10 9 grid Urban 8 31 39 39 39 connection Rural 0 2 1 1 1 connection Rehabilitation 17 17 17 17 17 cost Variable cost (existing 32 32 32 32 32 capacity) Total Capital cost 42 65 71 71 71 Investment 21 44 50 50 50 Cost Rehabilitation 21 21 21 21 21 cost Variable cost 57 71 71 71 71 TOTAL 99 136 142 142 142 88 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.124 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Burkina Faso Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Existing 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % grid Urban 0.1 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Variable cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.6 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % Investment 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % cost Variable cost 0.7 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 % Total 1.3 % 1.8 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 89 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.125 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Burkina Faso Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.2 1 1 1 1 Generation cost Rehabilitation 24 24 24 24 24 cost Investment 170 355 405 405 398 T&D cost Rehabilitation 136 136 136 136 136 cost Total 330 517 566 566 559 Table A1.126 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Burkina Faso Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % cost Investment 2.2 % 4.7 % 5.3 % 5.3 % 5.3 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % cost Total 4.3 % 6.8 % 7.5 % 7.5 % 7.5 % 90 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Côte d’Ivoire Table A1.127 Overview: Côte d’Ivoire 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 15.2 13.9 11.1 0.2 11.9 Exports (TWh) 11.5 10.6 12.0 3.7 9.5 Net exports (TWh) -3.7 -3.3 0.9 3.5 -2.5 Generation capacity - installed 498 498 498 498 498 (MW) Generation capacity - 601 601 601 601 601 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 136 345 1,368 1,562 552 investments (MW) New cross-border 2,596 2,340 2,226 0 2,006 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 54 % 63 % 73 % 73 % 73 % Generation capacity 59 % 64 % 77 % 79 % 66 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 40 % 34 % 20 % 19 % 30 % Other 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 91 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.128 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Côte d’Ivoire Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade Soubre 316 6 471 expansion Singrobo 80 3 184 Louga 280 5 678 Malamasso 90 3 245 Daboite 91 3 269 Ndieliesso 90 3 315 Missouli 21 2 not available Kokumbo 78 3 not available Abisso-Come 90 3 not available Gibo-Popoli 112 4 not available Boloubre 156 4 not available Tayaboui 100 4 not available Trade stagnation Same * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 92 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.129 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Côte d’Ivoire Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 40 102 402 458 166 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39 94 380 436 143 Other 1 8 22 22 22 Rehabilitation 32 32 32 32 32 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 32 32 32 32 32 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 12 15 31 140 18 New capacity 1 4 13 17 6 Installed 11 12 18 123 12 capacity Investment 106 147 212 185 202 T&D cost Cross-border 32 28 27 0 24 grid Distribution 38 38 38 38 30 grid Urban 28 41 46 46 46 connection Rural 8 39 101 101 101 connection Rehabilitation 49 49 49 49 49 cost Variable cost (existing 99 99 99 99 99 capacity) Total Capital cost 227 330 695 725 449 Investment 146 249 614 644 368 Cost Rehabilitation 81 81 81 81 81 cost Variable cost 111 114 131 239 117 TOTAL 338 445 826 964 566 93 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.130 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Côte d’Ivoire Trade Trade expansion stagnationLow growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.2 % 0.5 % 1.8 % 2.1 % 0.8 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.2 % 0.4 % 1.7 % 2.0 % 0.7 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.6 % 0.1 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Existing 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.6 % 0.1 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.5 % 0.7 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 1.0 % Cross-border 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % grid Distribution 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % grid Urban 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 1.0 % 1.5 % 3.2 % 3.3 % 2.2 % Investment 0.7 % 1.1 % 2.8 % 3.0 % 1.8 % cost Rehabilitation 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % cost Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % 1.1 % 0.6 % Total 1.5 % 2.0 % 3.8 % 4.4 % 2.7 % 94 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.131 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Côte d’Ivoire Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 312 802 3,159 3,600 1,295 Generation cost Rehabilitation 180 180 180 180 180 cost Investment 852 1,184 1,708 1,494 1,629 T&D cost Rehabilitation 396 396 396 396 396 cost Total 1,741 2,563 5,444 5,671 3,500 Table A1.132 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Côte d’Ivoire Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 1.4 % 3.7 % 14.5 % 16.5 % 6.2 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 % cost Investment 3.9 % 5.4 % 7.8 % 6.8 % 7.8 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.9 % cost Total 8.0 % 11.7 % 24.9 % 26.0 % 16.8 % 95 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Gambia Table A1.133 Overview: Gambia 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Exports (TWh) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 Net exports (TWh) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 Generation capacity - installed 22 22 22 22 22 (MW) Generation capacity - 74 74 74 66 74 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity – new 0 2 4 4 4 investments (MW) New cross-border 24 20 19 0 20 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 59 % 66 % 79 % 79 % 79 % Generation capacity 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Table A1.134 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Gambia Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new expansion projects* - - - Trade No new stagnation projects* - - - * Only mini-hydro in rural node 96 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.135 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Gambia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 1 2 2 2 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 1 2 2 2 Rehabilitation 2 2 2 2 2 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 30 36 37 30 37 New capacity 0 0 0 0 0 Installed 30 36 37 30 37 capacity Investment 6 9 15 15 15 T&D cost Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 grid Distribution 1 1 1 1 1 grid Urban 4 5 7 7 7 connection Rural 0 3 7 7 7 connection Rehabilitation 1 1 1 1 1 cost Variable cost (existing 1 1 1 1 1 capacity) Total Capital cost 8 13 20 19 20 Investment 6 10 17 17 17 Cost Rehabilitation 3 3 3 3 3 cost Variable cost 31 37 38 31 38 TOTAL 40 50 58 51 57 97 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.136 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Gambia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % Rehabilitation cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Variable cost (fuel, 4.5 % 5.2 % 5.4 % 4.5 % 5.7 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Existing 4.5 % 5.2 % 5.4 % 4.5 % 5.7 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.8 % 1.4 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.4 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % grid Urban 0.6 % 0.8 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1 % connection Rural 0.1 % 0.5 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 1.2 % 1.9 % 2.9 % 2.9 % 3.1 % Investment 0.8 % 1.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.6 % cost Rehabilitation 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % cost Variable cost 4.6 % 5.4 % 5.6 % 4.6 % 5.9 % Total 5.9 % 7.3 % 8.4 % 7.5 % 9.0 % 98 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.137 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Gambia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.3 5 12 12 12 Generation cost Rehabilitation 12 12 12 11 12 cost Investment 45 76 123 123 122 T&D cost Rehabilitation 6 6 6 6 6 cost Total 63 99 153 152 152 Table A1.138 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Gambia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 0.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.9 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.6 % 1.9 % cost Investment 6.6 % 11.2 % 18.1 % 18.0 % 19.0 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 % cost Total 9.2 % 14.6 % 22.5 % 22.3 % 23.7 % 99 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Ghana Table A1.139 Overview: Ghana 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 10.0 9.3 11.0 2.8 8.5 Exports (TWh) 1.7 0.6 1.4 0.3 1.6 Net exports (TWh) -8.3 -8.7 -9.6 -2.6 -6.9 Generation capacity - installed 1,713 1,713 1,713 1,713 1,713 (MW) Generation capacity - 160 160 160 160 160 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 980 1,005 1,048 1,400 1,048 investments (MW) New cross-border 922 770 979 0 659 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 55 % 62 % 76 % 76 % 76 % Generation capacity 76 % 76 % 75 % 67 % 75 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 19 % 19 % 19 % 28 % 19 % Other 4% 5% 7% 6% 7% Table A1.140 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Ghana Planned capacity Cost estimate (Mill. Scenario Project* (MW) Lead time (years) USD) Trade expansion Awisam 88 3 174 Abatumesu 63 3 162 Juale 193 4 528 Bui 400 7 622 Asouso 51 3 150 ** Nounibiel (20%) 12 2 57 Sedukrom 26 not available Jomuro 26 not available Tanoso 30 not available Kojokrom 36 not available Hemang 54 not available Trade stagnation Same * Plus mini-hydro in rural node ** Shared with Burkina Faso 100 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.141 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Ghana Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 262 272 288 322 288 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 34 0 Hydro 262 262 262 262 262 Other 1 10 27 27 27 Rehabilitation 9 9 9 9 9 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 9 9 9 9 9 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 32 32 32 530 32 New capacity 9 9 9 219 8 Installed 23 23 23 311 24 capacity Investment 128 180 271 266 243 T&D cost Cross-border 5 4 5 0 4 grid Distribution 79 79 79 79 52 grid Urban 42 53 73 73 73 connection Rural 3 44 114 114 114 connection Rehabilitation 34 34 34 34 34 cost Variable cost (existing 94 94 94 94 94 capacity) Total Capital cost 433 494 602 630 573 Investment 391 452 560 588 531 Cost Rehabilitation 42 42 42 42 42 cost Variable cost 126 126 126 624 126 TOTAL 559 620 728 1,255 699 101 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.142 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Ghana Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 % 1.8 % 1.9 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.0 % Hydro 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.7 % Other 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 3.0 % 0.2 % O&M) New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 1.2 % 0.1 % Existing 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 1.8 % 0.2 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % grid Urban 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 2.4 % 2.8 % 3.4 % 3.6 % 3.7 % Investment 2.2 % 2.6 % 3.2 % 3.3 % 3.5 % cost Rehabilitation 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % cost Variable cost 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 3.5 % 0.8 % Total 3.2 % 3.5 % 4.1 % 7.1 % 4.6 % 102 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.143 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Ghana Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 2,058 2,129 2,253 2,489 2,253 Generation cost Rehabilitation 48 48 48 48 48 cost Investment 1,034 1,450 2,184 2,142 1,954 T&D cost Rehabilitation 270 270 270 270 270 cost Total 3,410 3,896 4,755 4,949 4,525 Table A1.144 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Ghana Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 11.6 % 12.0 % 12.7 % 14.1 % 14.7 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % cost Investment 5.8 % 8.2 % 12.3 % 12.1 % 12.8 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.8 % cost Total 19.3 % 22.0 % 26.9 % 27.9 % 29.6 % 103 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Guinea Table A1.145 Overview: Guinea 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Exports (TWh) 18.2 17.8 17.4 0.0 17.5 Net exports (TWh) 18.2 17.8 17.4 0.0 17.5 Generation capacity - installed 119 119 119 119 119 (MW) Generation capacity - 28 28 28 28 28 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity – new 4,287 4,288 4,288 568 4,288 investments (MW) New cross-border 2,204 2,225 2,283 0 2,271 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 21 % 31 % 40 % 40 % 40 % Generation capacity 99 % 99 % 99 % 94 % 99 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 1% 1% 1% 6% 1% 104 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.146 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Guinea Planned Cost estimate Scenario Project* capacity (MW) Expected online (Mill. USD) Trade Kaléta I 105 2008 143 expansion Sambangalou** 60 2009 139 Kaléta II 210 209 Kassa 118 93 Souapiti II 500 605 Amaria I 300 309 Amaria II 665 835 Souapiti II 750 1008 Balassa 181 171 Gozoguezia 48 110 Morisanako 100 246 Tiopo 120 296 Koukoutamba 281 440 Bouréa 161 373 Diaoya 149 332 Téné 76 122 Fello Sounga 82 263 Fomi 90 300 Grand Kikon 291 637 Trade Kaléta I 105 2008 143 stagnation Sambangalou** 60 2009 139 Kaléta II 210 209 Kassa 118 93 * Plus mini-hydro in rural node ** Shared with Senegal 105 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.147 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Guinea Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 860 860 860 114 860 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 860 860 860 114 860 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Rehabilitation 1 1 1 1 1 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 1 1 1 1 1 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 91 91 91 11 91 New capacity 71 71 71 8 71 Installed 20 20 20 3 20 capacity Investment 61 77 87 47 87 T&D cost Cross-border 44 43 40 0 41 grid Distribution 6 6 6 6 5 grid Urban 10 24 37 37 37 connection Rural 1 4 4 4 4 connection Rehabilitation 2 2 2 2 2 cost Variable cost (existing 7 7 7 7 7 capacity) Total Capital cost 924 940 951 165 951 Investment 920 936 947 161 947 Cost Rehabilitation 3 3 3 3 3 cost Variable cost 98 98 98 18 98 TOTAL 1,022 1,038 1,049 183 1,049 106 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.148 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Guinea Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 17.3 % 17.3 % 17.3 % 2.3 % 18.7 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 17.3 % 17.3 % 17.3 % 2.3 % 18.7 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 0.2 % 2.0 % O&M) New capacity 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 0.2 % 1.5 % Existing 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.1 % 0.4 % capacity T&D Investment cost 1.2 % 1.5 % 1.8 % 1.0 % 1.9 % Cross-border 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.8 % 0.0 % 0.9 % grid Distribution 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % grid Urban 0.2 % 0.5 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.8 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 18.6 % 18.9 % 19.2 % 3.3 % 20.7 % Investment 18.6 % 18.9 % 19.1 % 3.3 % 20.6 % cost Rehabilitation 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % cost Variable cost 2.0 % 2.0 % 2.0 % 0.4 % 2.1 % Total 20.6 % 20.9 % 21.1 % 3.7 % 22.8 % 107 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.149 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Guinea Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 6,632 6,635 6,635 880 6,635 Generation cost Rehabilitation 8 8 8 8 8 cost Investment 490 617 703 381 702 T&D cost Rehabilitation 15 15 15 15 15 cost Total 7,145 7,275 7,362 1,284 7,361 Table A1.150 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Guinea Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 133.7 % 133.8 % 133.8 % 17.7 % 144.5 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % cost Investment 9.9 % 12.4 % 14.2 % 7.7 % 15.3 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % cost Total 144.1 % 146.7 % 148.4 % 25.9 % 160.3 % 108 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Guinea Bissau Table A1.151 Overview: Guinea Bissau 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0.6 1.2 2.1 0.0 1.5 Exports (TWh) 0.6 1.1 1.9 0.0 1.3 Net exports (TWh) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 Generation capacity - installed 0 0 0 0 0 (MW) Generation capacity - 22 22 22 22 22 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 0 0 0 24 0 investments (MW) New cross-border 266 538 818 0 646 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 14 % 25 % 33 % 33 % 33 % Generation capacity 0% 0% 0% 44 % 0% mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 100 % 100 % 100 % 56 % 100 % Table A1.152 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Guinea Bissau Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new expansion projects* - - - Trade No new stagnation projects* - - - * Only mini-hydro in rural node 109 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.153 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Guinea Bissau Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 0 0 11 0 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 10 0 Other 0 0 0 1 0 Rehabilitation 1 1 1 1 1 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 1 1 1 1 1 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 8 8 8 11 8 New capacity 0 0 0 2 0 Installed 8 8 8 8 8 capacity Investment 3 7 10 5 9 T&D cost Cross-border 2 3 5 0 4 grid Distribution 0 0 0 0 0 grid Urban 1 3 5 5 5 connection Rural 0 1 1 1 1 connection Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Variable cost (existing 1 1 1 1 1 capacity) Total Capital cost 3 8 11 18 10 Investment 3 7 11 17 9 Cost Rehabilitation 1 1 1 1 1 cost Variable cost 8 9 9 11 9 TOTAL 12 17 20 29 19 110 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.154 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Guinea Bissau Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 3.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.7 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Variable cost (fuel, 2.0 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.9 % 2.3 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.6 % 0.0 % Existing 2.0 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.7 % 1.9 % 2.8 % 1.5 % 2.5 % Cross-border 0.4 % 0.9 % 1.3 % 0.0 % 1.1 % grid Distribution 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % grid Urban 0.2 % 0.8 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.2 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.9 % 2.1 % 3.0 % 4.7 % 2.8 % Investment 0.7 % 1.9 % 2.8 % 4.5 % 2.5 % cost Rehabilitation 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % cost Variable cost 2.2 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 3.0 % 2.4 % Total 3.1 % 4.5 % 5.4 % 7.7 % 5.2 % 111 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.155 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Guinea Bissau Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 1 0 84 0 Generation cost Rehabilitation 4 4 4 4 4 cost Investment 20 57 84 44 76 T&D cost Rehabilitation 3 3 3 3 3 cost Total 27 64 91 135 82 Table A1.156 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Guinea Bissau Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 22.4 % 0.1 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % cost Investment 5.4 % 15.2 % 22.4 % 11.7 % 20.4 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % cost Total 7.1 % 16.9 % 24.1 % 35.8 % 22.2 % 112 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Liberia Table A1.157 Overview: Liberia 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0.6 0.7 1.7 0.0 1.6 Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net exports (TWh) -0.6 -0.7 -1.7 0.0 -1.6 Generation capacity - installed 0 0 0 0 0 (MW) Generation capacity - 64 64 64 73 64 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 0 9 0 369 0 investments (MW) New cross-border 91 99 258 0 246 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 1% 13 % 66 % 66 % 66 % Generation capacity 100 % 88 % 100 % 98 % 100 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 12 % 0% 2% 0% Table A1.158 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Liberia Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new projects expansion Trade Manu River 45 stagnation Mount Coffee 60 not available expansion Mano 1 180 605 SP-B1 120 437 * Only mini-hydro in rural node 113 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.159 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Liberia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 4 0 191 0 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 191 0 Other 0 4 0 0 0 Rehabilitation 3 3 3 4 3 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 3 3 3 3 3 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 1 1 1 14 1 New capacity 0 0 0 5 0 Installed 1 1 1 9 1 capacity Investment 5 23 39 37 36 T&D cost Cross-border 1 1 2 0 2 grid Distribution 5 5 5 5 2 grid Urban 0 0 32 32 32 connection Rural 0 17 1 1 1 connection Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Variable cost (existing 4 4 4 4 4 capacity) Total Capital cost 9 29 42 232 40 Investment 5 26 39 228 36 Cost Rehabilitation 3 3 3 4 3 cost Variable cost 5 5 5 18 5 TOTAL 14 35 48 250 45 114 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.160 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Liberia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.0 % 22.7 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 22.7 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.4 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 1.6 % 0.1 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.6 % 0.0 % Existing 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 1.1 % 0.1 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.7 % 2.7 % 4.6 % 4.4 % 4.7 % Cross-border 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.0 % 0.2 % grid Distribution 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.3 % grid Urban 0.0 % 0.0 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 4.0 % connection Rural 0.0 % 2.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 1.1 % 3.5 % 5.0 % 27.6 % 5.1 % Investment 0.7 % 3.1 % 4.6 % 27.1 % 4.7 % cost Rehabilitation 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.4 % cost Variable cost 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 2.1 % 0.7 % Total 1.7 % 4.2 % 5.7 % 29.7 % 5.8 % 115 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.161 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Liberia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 26 1 1,533 1 Generation cost Rehabilitation 19 19 19 20 19 cost Investment 44 182 313 299 293 T&D cost Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Total 63 227 333 1,852 313 Table A1.162 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Liberia Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 3.1 % 0.1 % 182.4 % 0.1 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.5 % cost Investment 5.2 % 21.6 % 37.3 % 35.6 % 37.6 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost Total 7.5 % 27.0 % 39.6 % 220.3 % 40.2 % 116 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Mali Table A1.163 Overview: Mali 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 16.2 15.2 12.7 0.1 13.6 Exports (TWh) 15.4 14.0 10.9 0.4 11.7 Net exports (TWh) -0.8 -1.2 -1.9 0.3 -1.8 Generation capacity - installed 288 288 288 288 288 (MW) Generation capacity - 46 46 46 66 46 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 0 5 3 284 3 investments (MW) New cross-border 3,571 3,298 2,703 0 2,890 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 15 % 25 % 39 % 39 % 39 % Generation capacity 74 % 73 % 73 % 82 % 73 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 6% 6% 6% 3% 6% Other 20 % 21 % 21 % 14 % 21 % Table A1.164 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Mali Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new projects expansion Trade Feloue 62 2 83.7 stagnation Gouina 95 2 160 Kenie 56 3 100 Gaoulgo 300 814 * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 117 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.165 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mali Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 2 1 115 1 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 113 0 Other 0 2 1 2 1 Rehabilitation 2 2 2 3 2 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 2 2 2 2 2 Other 0 0 0 1 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 4 4 4 40 4 New capacity 0 0 0 4 0 Installed 4 4 4 35 4 capacity Investment 70 92 111 85 106 T&D cost Cross-border 35 32 26 0 28 grid Distribution 24 24 24 24 18 grid Urban 9 25 52 52 52 connection Rural 1 10 8 8 8 connection Rehabilitation 18 18 18 18 18 cost Variable cost (existing 43 43 43 43 43 capacity) Total Capital cost 91 114 132 220 128 Investment 70 94 112 199 107 Cost Rehabilitation 20 20 20 21 20 cost Variable cost 47 47 47 82 47 TOTAL 137 161 179 303 175 118 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.166 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mali Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.3 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.3 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.1 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Existing 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.1 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.8 % 1.1 % 1.3 % 1.0 % 1.4 % Cross-border 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.0 % 0.4 % grid Distribution 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 % grid Urban 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 1.1 % 1.3 % 1.6 % 2.6 % 1.6 % Investment 0.8 % 1.1 % 1.3 % 2.3 % 1.4 % cost Rehabilitation 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % cost Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 1.0 % 0.6 % Total 1.6 % 1.9 % 2.1 % 3.6 % 2.2 % 119 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.167 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mali Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 1 13 7 916 7 Generation cost Rehabilitation 14 14 14 17 14 cost Investment 565 739 893 681 857 T&D cost Rehabilitation 144 144 144 144 144 cost Total 724 910 1,058 1,759 1,023 Table A1.168 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mali Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 10.8 % 0.1 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % cost Investment 6.6 % 8.7 % 10.5 % 8.0 % 11.0 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.9 % cost Total 8.5 % 10.7 % 12.4 % 20.7 % 13.2 % 120 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Mauritania Table A1.169 Overview: Mauritania 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.5 Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 Net exports (TWh) -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 0.3 -0.5 Generation capacity - installed 37 37 37 37 37 (MW) Generation capacity - 63 63 63 63 63 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 0 0 1 136 1 investments (MW) New cross-border 21 48 79 0 54 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 23% 34 % 46 % 46 % 46 % Generation capacity 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 58 % 0% Other 100 % 100 % 100 % 42 % 100 % Table A1.170 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Mauritania Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new expansion projects* - - - Trade No new stagnation projects* - - - * Only mini-hydro in rural node 121 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.171 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mauritania Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 0 0 13 0 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 13 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Rehabilitation 2 2 2 2 2 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 29 29 29 87 29 New capacity 0 0 0 58 0 Installed 29 29 29 29 29 capacity Investment 15 22 28 27 24 T&D cost Cross-border 0 1 1 0 1 grid Distribution 11 11 11 11 7 grid Urban 3 8 14 14 14 connection Rural 0 2 2 2 2 connection Rehabilitation 5 5 5 5 5 cost Variable cost (existing 11 11 11 11 11 capacity) Total Capital cost 22 29 35 48 31 Investment 15 22 29 41 24 Cost Rehabilitation 7 7 7 7 7 cost Variable cost 39 39 39 97 39 TOTAL 61 68 74 145 70 122 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.172 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mauritania Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 2.2 % 0.9 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.5 % 0.0 % Existing 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.9 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 % grid Urban 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % Variable cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.9 % 1.2 % 1.0 % Investment 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 1.0 % 0.8 % cost Rehabilitation 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % cost Variable cost 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 2.5 % 1.2 % Total 1.5 % 1.7 % 1.9 % 3.7 % 2.2 % 123 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.173 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mauritania Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 1 1 93 1 Generation cost Rehabilitation 10 10 10 10 10 cost Investment 121 175 228 221 191 T&D cost Rehabilitation 41 41 41 41 41 cost Total 172 227 281 365 244 Table A1.174 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mauritania Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.4 % 0.0 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % cost Investment 3.1 % 4.4 % 5.8 % 5.6 % 6.0 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.3 % cost Total 4.4 % 5.8 % 7.1 % 9.3 % 7.6 % 124 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Niger Table A1.175 Overview: Niger 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 1.0 1.4 1.5 0.4 1.5 Exports (TWh) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net exports (TWh) -0.7 -1.4 -1.5 -0.4 -1.5 Generation capacity - installed 0 0 0 0 0 (MW) Generation capacity - 38 38 38 73 38 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 0 1 0 202 0 investments (MW) New cross-border 117 193 206 0 204 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 7% 18 % 20 % 20 % 20 % Generation capacity 0% 0% 0% 73 % 0% mix (%): Hydro Coal 100 % 99 % 99 % 14 % 99 % Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 1% 1% 13 % 1% Table A1.176 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Niger Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade expansion No new projects - - - Trade Kandadji 125 4 359 stagnation Dyondyonga 26 2 69 Gambou I 50 3 not available * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 125 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.177 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Niger Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 0 0 72 0 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 72 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Rehabilitation 2 2 2 4 2 cost Thermal 2 2 2 2 2 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 2 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 10 10 10 44 10 New capacity 0 0 0 3 0 Installed 10 10 10 41 10 capacity Investment 10 33 34 34 34 T&D cost Cross-border 1 1 0 0 0 grid Distribution 4 4 4 4 4 grid Urban 5 27 29 29 29 connection Rural 0 2 1 1 1 connection Rehabilitation 16 16 16 16 16 cost Variable cost (existing 14 14 14 14 14 capacity) Total Capital cost 28 52 53 126 52 Investment 10 33 34 106 34 Cost Rehabilitation 18 18 18 20 18 cost Variable cost 24 24 24 59 24 TOTAL 52 75 76 185 76 126 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.178 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Niger Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.6 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.6 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 1.0 % 0.2 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Existing 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.9 % 0.2 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.2 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % grid Urban 0.1 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Variable cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.6 % 1.1 % 1.2 % 2.8 % 1.2 % Investment 0.2 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 2.3 % 0.8 % cost Rehabilitation 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % cost Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 1.3 % 0.5 % Total 1.1 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 4.1 % 1.7 % 127 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.179 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Niger Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 1 1 571 1 Generation cost Rehabilitation 11 11 11 13 11 cost Investment 80 268 277 276 275 T&D cost Rehabilitation 129 129 129 129 129 cost Total 221 410 418 990 416 Table A1.180 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Niger Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 12.5 % 0.0 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 % cost Investment 1.8 % 5.9 % 6.1 % 6.1 % 6.1 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.9 % cost Total 4.8 % 9.0 % 9.2 % 21.7 % 9.3 % 128 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Nigeria Table A1.181 Overview: Nigeria 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 1.0 0.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 Exports (TWh) 0.2 2.2 4.2 2.4 3.9 Net exports (TWh) -0.8 1.3 2.1 0.3 1.8 Generation capacity - installed 1,011 1,011 1,011 1,011 1,011 (MW) Generation capacity - 4,057 4,644 5,454 5,208 4,017 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 10,323 10,522 10,828 10,828 10,828 investments (MW) New cross-border 161 224 366 0 296 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 59 % 67 % 82 % 82 % 82 % Generation capacity 85 % 81 % 76 % 77 % 83 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 14 % 17 % 21 % 20 % 14 % Other 0% 1% 3% 3% 3% Table A1.182 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Nigeria Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade Mambila 3900 2000 expansion Makurdi 1062 7 1983 Lakoja 1950 9 4463 Zungeru 950 not available Onitsha 1050 not available Ikom 736 not available Guara 300 not available Dadin Kova 34 not available Katsina Ali 310 not available Trade Same stagnation *Plus mini-hydro in rural node 129 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.183 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Nigeria Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 1,671 1,748 1,867 1,867 1,867 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 1,658 1,658 1,658 1,658 1,658 Other 13 90 210 210 210 Rehabilitation 169 177 189 186 168 cost Thermal 17 26 38 34 17 Hydro 151 151 151 151 151 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 1,452 1,779 2,232 2,095 1,429 New capacity 121 121 121 128 121 Installed 1,331 1,659 2,111 1,966 1,308 capacity Investment 1,375 1,749 2,379 2,377 1,708 T&D cost Cross-border 1 1 2 0 1 grid Distribution 1,013 1,013 1,013 1,013 343 grid Urban 306 355 484 484 484 connection Rural 55 380 880 880 880 connection Rehabilitation 473 473 473 473 473 cost Variable cost (existing 596 596 596 596 596 capacity) Total Capital cost 3,688 4,148 4,908 4,903 4,217 Investment 3,046 3,497 4,246 4,244 3,576 Cost Rehabilitation 642 651 662 659 641 cost Variable cost 2,048 2,376 2,828 2,691 2,026 TOTAL 5,736 6,523 7,736 7,594 6,243 130 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.184 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Nigeria Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 1.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.7 % 0.9 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 0.8 % O&M) New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Existing 0.7 % 0.8 % 1.1 % 1.0 % 0.8 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.7 % 0.9 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.0 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.2 % grid Urban 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % Variable cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 1.9 % 2.1 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % Investment 1.6 % 1.8 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.1 % cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 % cost Variable cost 1.0 % 1.2 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.2 % Total 2.9 % 3.3 % 3.9 % 3.9 % 3.7 % 131 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.185 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Nigeria Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 12,669 13,246 14,133 14,133 14,133 Generation cost Rehabilitation 976 1,035 1,117 1,092 972 cost Investment 11,080 14,091 19,162 19,149 13,762 T&D cost Rehabilitation 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812 cost Total 28,537 32,184 38,224 38,186 32,679 Table A1.186 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Nigeria Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 6.5 % 6.8 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 8.4 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % cost Investment 5.7 % 7.2 % 9.8 % 9.8 % 8.1 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 2.3 % cost Total 14.6 % 16.4 % 19.5 % 19.5 % 19.3 % 132 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Senegal Table A1.187 Overview: Senegal 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0.9 1.5 2.0 0.7 1.5 Exports (TWh) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.5 Net exports (TWh) -0.5 -1.0 -1.4 -0.6 -1.0 Generation capacity - installed 205 205 205 205 205 (MW) Generation capacity - 139 139 139 139 139 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 251 254 258 320 258 investments (MW) New cross-border 175 324 487 0 380 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 34 % 44 % 51 % 51 % 51 % Generation capacity 0% 0% 0% 9% 0% mix (%): Hydro Coal 42 % 42 % 42 % 38 % 42 % Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 58 % 58 % 58 % 53 % 58 % Table A1.188 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Senegal Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new expansion projects* - - - ** Trade Sambangalou 60 2009 139 stagnation * Only mini-hydro in rural node ** Shared with Guinea 133 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.189 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Senegal Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 41 42 44 62 44 Generation cost Thermal 40 40 40 40 40 Hydro 0 0 0 18 0 Other 1 2 3 4 3 Rehabilitation 4 4 4 4 4 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 4 4 4 4 4 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 131 131 131 185 131 New capacity 58 58 58 59 58 Installed 73 73 73 126 73 capacity Investment 281 307 326 323 238 T&D cost Cross-border 1 2 3 0 2 grid Distribution 261 261 261 261 174 grid Urban 16 32 42 42 42 connection Rural 3 12 20 20 20 connection Rehabilitation 118 118 118 118 118 cost Variable cost (existing 370 370 370 370 370 capacity) Total Capital cost 444 471 491 507 403 Investment 322 349 369 385 281 Cost Rehabilitation 122 122 122 122 122 cost Variable cost 501 501 501 555 501 TOTAL 946 972 993 1,062 904 134 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.190 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Senegal Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.4 % Thermal 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.4 % 1.1 % O&M) New capacity 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % Existing 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.9 % 0.6 % capacity T&D Investment cost 2.1 % 2.3 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 1.9 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.4 % grid Urban 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 % Variable cost 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 3.0 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 3.3 % 3.5 % 3.6 % 3.7 % 3.3 % Investment 2.4 % 2.6 % 2.7 % 2.8 % 2.3 % cost Rehabilitation 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 % cost Variable cost 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 4.1 % 4.1 % Total 7.0 % 7.2 % 7.3 % 7.8 % 7.3 % 135 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.191 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Senegal Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 279 287 299 443 299 Generation cost Rehabilitation 23 23 23 23 23 cost Investment 2,266 2,473 2,623 2,601 1,913 T&D cost Rehabilitation 951 951 951 951 951 cost Total 3,519 3,734 3,895 4,018 3,186 Table A1.192 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Senegal Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.2 % 3.3 % 2.4 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % cost Investment 16.7 % 18.2 % 19.3 % 19.1 % 15.5 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 7.0 % 7.0 % 7.0 % 7.0 % 7.7 % cost Total 25.9 % 27.5 % 28.6 % 29.6 % 25.8 % 136 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Sierra Leone Table A1.193 Overview: Sierra Leone 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 1.6 1.4 2.6 0.0 2.5 Exports (TWh) 0.6 0.7 1.7 0.0 1.6 Net exports (TWh) -0.9 -0.7 -0.9 0.0 -0.9 Generation capacity - installed 62 62 62 62 62 (MW) Generation capacity - 0 46 46 46 46 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 0 0 1 145 1 investments (MW) New cross-border 323 314 661 0 633 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 41 % 46 % 51 % 51 % 51 % Generation capacity 81 % 46 % 46 % 77 % 46 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 19 % 54 % 54 % 23 % 54 % Table A1.194 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Sierra Leone Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new expansion projects* - - - Trade Benkongor I-III 200 511 stagnation * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 137 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.195 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Sierra Leone Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 0 0 56 0 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 56 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Rehabilitation 0 1 1 1 1 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 1 1 1 1 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 6 23 23 26 23 New capacity 0 0 0 2 0 Installed 6 23 23 24 23 capacity Investment 21 26 35 29 31 T&D cost Cross-border 3 3 7 0 6 grid Distribution 5 5 5 5 1 grid Urban 13 17 21 21 21 connection Rural 0 1 2 2 2 connection Rehabilitation 1 1 1 1 1 cost Variable cost (existing 5 5 5 5 5 capacity) Total Capital cost 23 29 38 88 34 Investment 21 27 36 85 31 Cost Rehabilitation 1 3 3 3 3 cost Variable cost 10 28 28 31 28 TOTAL 33 57 66 118 61 138 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.196 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Sierra Leone Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 3.5 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 3.5 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.3 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.6 % 1.5 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.0 % Existing 0.3 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.5 % capacity T&D Investment cost 1.3 % 1.6 % 2.2 % 1.8 % 2.0 % Cross-border 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.0 % 0.4 % grid Distribution 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.1 % grid Urban 0.8 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 1.4 % 1.8 % 2.4 % 5.5 % 2.2 % Investment 1.3 % 1.7 % 2.2 % 5.3 % 2.0 % cost Rehabilitation 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % cost Variable cost 0.6 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.9 % 1.8 % Total 2.0 % 3.5 % 4.1 % 7.4 % 3.9 % 139 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.197 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Sierra Leone Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 1 3 449 3 Generation cost Rehabilitation 0 8 8 8 8 cost Investment 171 213 283 230 249 T&D cost Rehabilitation 11 11 11 11 11 cost Total 182 233 305 697 270 Table A1.198 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Sierra Leone Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 28.0 % 0.2 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % cost Investment 10.6 % 13.3 % 17.6 % 14.3 % 15.9 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % cost Total 11.3 % 14.5 % 19.0 % 43.4 % 17.3 % 140 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Togo Table A1.199 Overview: Togo 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 1.7 0.5 1.1 0.0 1.3 Exports (TWh) 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 Net exports (TWh) -1.1 -0.4 -0.9 0.5 -0.9 Generation capacity - installed 0 0 0 0 0 (MW) Generation capacity - 31 31 31 91 31 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 0 199 200 321 200 investments (MW) New cross-border 61 0 5 0 0 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 21 % 30 % 50 % 50 % 50 % Generation capacity 100 % 99 % 99 % 56 % 99 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 44 % 0% Other 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% Table A1.200 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Togo Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade Adjaralla** 49 expansion (50%) Adjaralla ext.** 38.5 2 76.5 (50%) Tchala 90 146 Tetetou 20 132 Trade Same stagnation * Only mini-hydro in rural node ** Shared with Benin 141 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.201 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Togo Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 60 60 72 60 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 12 0 Hydro 0 60 60 60 60 Other 0 1 1 1 1 Rehabilitation 2 2 2 3 2 cost Thermal 0 0 0 1 0 Hydro 2 2 2 2 2 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0 4 4 97 4 New capacity 0 3 3 76 3 Installed 0 0 1 21 1 capacity Investment 10 19 37 37 37 T&D cost Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 grid Distribution 3 3 3 3 3 grid Urban 6 13 30 30 30 connection Rural 0 3 4 4 4 connection Rehabilitation 3 3 3 3 3 cost Variable cost (existing 7 7 7 7 7 capacity) Total Capital cost 14 84 102 115 102 Investment 10 80 97 109 97 Cost Rehabilitation 5 5 5 5 5 cost Variable cost 8 11 11 105 11 TOTAL 22 95 113 219 113 142 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.202 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Togo Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 53% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.5 % 2.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 3.4 % 0.1 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 2.6 % 0.1 % Existing 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.7 % 0.0 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 0.7 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % grid Urban 0.2 % 0.5 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.5 % 2.9 % 3.5 % 4.0 % 3.6 % Investment 0.3 % 2.8 % 3.4 % 3.8 % 3.4 % cost Rehabilitation 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % cost Variable cost 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 3.6 % 0.4 % Total 0.8 % 3.3 % 3.9 % 7.6 % 4.0 % 143 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.203 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Togo Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 477 477 559 477 Generation cost Rehabilitation 9 9 9 15 9 cost Investment 77 156 298 298 297 T&D cost Rehabilitation 24 24 24 24 24 cost Total 110 666 808 896 807 Table A1.204 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Togo Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 53% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 16.6 % 16.6 % 19.4 % 16.8 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.3 % cost Investment 2.7 % 5.4 % 10.3 % 10.3 % 10.4 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % cost Total 3.8 % 23.1 % 28.1 % 31.1 % 28.3 % 144 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Central Africa Power Pool Cameroon Table A1.205 Overview: Cameroon 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Exports (TWh) 6.9 6.7 6.9 0.2 7.6 Net exports (TWh) 6.9 6.6 6.7 0.0 7.4 Generation capacity - installed 249 249 249 249 249 (MW) Generation capacity - 596 596 596 596 596 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 2,430 2,443 2,471 1,015 2,471 investments (MW) New cross-border 796 789 831 0 905 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 61 % 68 % 71 % 71 % 71 % Generation capacity 96 % 96 % 95 % 91 % 95 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 4% 4% 5% 9% 5% 145 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.206 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Cameroon Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade Memve'Ele 202 6 160 expansion Nachtigal 267 7 318 Njock 150 371 Lom Pangar 56 3 115 Bini a Warak 75 4 not available Song Ndong 280 not available Kikot 500 not available Sonmbengue 900 not available Trade Memve'Ele 202 6 160 stagnation Nachtigal 267 7 318 Njock 150 371 Lom Pangar 56 3 115 Bini a Warak 75 4 not available Song Ndong 280 not available * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 146 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.207 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Cameroon Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 410 415 426 180 426 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 410 410 410 164 410 Other 0 5 16 16 16 Rehabilitation 32 32 32 32 32 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 32 32 32 32 32 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 54 54 54 29 54 New capacity 30 31 31 9 31 Installed 23 23 23 21 23 capacity Investment 86 124 169 147 165 T&D cost Cross-border 22 21 21 0 24 grid Distribution 22 22 22 22 15 grid Urban 42 50 41 41 41 connection Rural 1 31 85 85 85 connection Rehabilitation 21 21 21 21 21 cost Variable cost (existing 43 43 43 43 43 capacity) Total Capital cost 549 592 647 380 643 Investment 497 539 595 328 591 Cost Rehabilitation 52 52 52 52 52 cost Variable cost 97 97 97 72 97 TOTAL 646 688 744 452 740 147 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.208 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Cameroon Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 1.6 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 0.7 % 1.9 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 0.7 % 1.8 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.2 % O&M) New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Existing 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.7 % Cross-border 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % grid Distribution 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % grid Urban 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 2.2 % 2.4 % 2.6 % 1.5 % 2.8 % Investment 2.0 % 2.1 % 2.4 % 1.3 % 2.6 % cost Rehabilitation 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % cost Variable cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.4 % Total 2.6 % 2.7 % 3.0 % 1.8 % 3.2 % 148 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.209 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Cameroon Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 44% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 3,126 3,163 3,242 1,370 3,242 Generation cost Rehabilitation 179 179 179 179 179 cost Investment 696 998 1,359 1,187 1,327 T&D cost Rehabilitation 167 167 167 167 167 cost Total 4,167 4,507 4,947 2,903 4,914 Table A1.210 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Cameroon Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 44% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 12.5 % 12.6 % 12.9 % 5.5 % 14.2 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.8 % cost Investment 2.8 % 4.0 % 5.4 % 4.7 % 5.8 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % cost Total 16.6 % 18.0 % 19.7 % 11.6 % 21.5 % 149 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Central African Republic Table A1.211 Overview: Central African Republic 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Generation capacity - installed 0 0 0 0 0 (MW) Generation capacity - 18 18 18 18 18 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 24 68 143 143 139 investments (MW) New cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 3% 15 % 34 % 34 % 34 % Generation capacity 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Table A1.212 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Central African Republic Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade Boali III 10 not available expansion Palambo 300 450 Trade Same stagnation * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 150 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.213 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Central African Republic Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 5 13 28 28 27 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 5 13 28 28 27 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Rehabilitation 1 1 1 1 1 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 1 1 1 1 1 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 1 1 3 3 3 New capacity 0 1 2 2 2 Installed 1 1 1 1 0 capacity Investment 1 9 20 20 20 T&D cost Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 grid Distribution 1 1 1 1 1 grid Urban 0 7 19 19 19 connection Rural 0 1 0 0 0 connection Rehabilitation 1 1 1 1 1 cost Variable cost (existing 2 2 2 2 2 capacity) Total Capital cost 9 25 51 51 50 Investment 6 23 48 48 47 Cost Rehabilitation 2 2 2 2 2 cost Variable cost 3 4 5 5 5 TOTAL 12 29 56 56 55 151 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.214 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Central African Republic Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.3 % 0.7 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.3 % 0.7 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Existing 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.1 % 0.5 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.2 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % grid Urban 0.0 % 0.4 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.5 % 1.4 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.9 % Investment 0.3 % 1.3 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.8 % cost Rehabilitation 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % cost Variable cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Total 0.6 % 1.6 % 3.1 % 3.1 % 3.2 % 152 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.215 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Central African Republic Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 44% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 36 103 214 214 209 Generation cost Rehabilitation 5 5 5 5 5 cost Investment 11 76 164 164 162 T&D cost Rehabilitation 12 12 12 12 12 cost Total 65 197 396 396 388 Table A1.216 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Central African Republic Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 44% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 2.0 % 5.7 % 11.8 % 11.8 % 12.4 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % cost Investment 0.6 % 4.2 % 9.0 % 9.0 % 9.6 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % cost Total 3.6 % 10.8 % 21.8 % 21.8 % 23.0 % 153 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Chad Table A1.217 Overview: Chad 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.0 1.3 Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net exports (TWh) -0.2 -0.8 -1.3 0.0 -1.3 Generation capacity - installed 0 0 0 0 0 (MW) Generation capacity - 0 0 0 22 0 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 0 0 0 174 0 investments (MW) New cross-border 35 118 202 0 201 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 3% 15 % 26 % 26 % 26 % Generation capacity 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Table A1.218 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Chad Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new expansion projects* - - - Trade No new stagnation projects* - - - * Only mini-hydro in rural node 154 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.219 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Chad Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 0 0 33 0 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 33 0 Rehabilitation 0 0 0 1 0 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 1 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0 0 0 84 0 New capacity 0 0 0 77 0 Installed 0 0 0 7 0 capacity Investment 2 22 39 39 39 T&D cost Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 grid Distribution 0 0 0 0 0 grid Urban 2 20 38 38 38 connection Rural 0 2 0 0 0 connection Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Variable cost (existing 1 1 1 1 1 capacity) Total Capital cost 3 23 39 73 39 Investment 2 22 39 72 39 Cost Rehabilitation 0 0 0 1 0 cost Variable cost 1 1 1 85 1 TOTAL 4 23 40 157 40 155 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.220 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Chad Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.0 % 0.0 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.9 % 0.0 % Existing 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Urban 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.9 % 0.5 % Investment 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.8 % 0.5 % cost Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost Variable cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.0 % 0.0 % Total 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 1.9 % 0.5 % 156 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.221 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Chad Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 44% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 1 0 191 0 Generation cost Rehabilitation 0 0 0 4 0 cost Investment 18 177 314 314 313 T&D cost Rehabilitation 3 3 3 3 3 cost Total 21 182 317 512 317 Table A1.222 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Chad Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 44% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.3 % 0.0 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost Investment 0.2 % 2.1 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.8 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost Total 0.3 % 2.1 % 3.7 % 6.0 % 3.9 % 157 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Republic of Congo (Br.) Table A1.223 Overview: Congo (Br.) 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 5.6 4.7 4.4 0.0 5.2 Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net exports (TWh) -5.6 -4.7 -4.4 0.0 -5.2 Generation capacity - installed 0 0 0 0 0 (MW) Generation capacity - 129 129 129 148 129 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 1,318 1,540 1,689 2,381 1,220 investments (MW) New cross-border 639 539 498 0 593 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 22 % 33 % 53 % 53 % 53 % Generation capacity 100 % 100 % 100 % 85 % 100 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 0% 0% 15 % 0% Table A1.224 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Congo (Br.) Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade Imboulou 100 200 expansion Sounda II 160 230 Dijoue ext. 15 58 Gamomba 14 not available Mpe 20 not available Nambili 28 not available Kouembali 150 not available Kouli 180 not available Chollet 600 not available Sounda III 750 not available Trade stagnation Same * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 158 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.225 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Congo (Br.) Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 301 351 385 528 278 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 301 351 385 460 278 Other 0 0 0 68 0 Rehabilitation 7 7 7 7 7 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 7 7 7 7 7 Other 0 0 0 1 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 24 28 31 175 23 New capacity 20 24 29 171 19 Installed 4 4 2 4 4 capacity Investment 32 35 46 31 47 T&D cost Cross-border 20 17 15 0 18 grid Distribution 9 9 9 9 6 grid Urban 4 10 22 22 22 connection Rural 0 0 0 0 0 connection Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Variable cost (existing 13 13 13 13 13 capacity) Total Capital cost 339 394 438 566 332 Investment 332 387 431 559 325 Cost Rehabilitation 7 7 7 7 7 cost Variable cost 37 41 43 188 36 TOTAL 376 434 482 754 367 159 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.226 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Congo (Br.) Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 3.0 % 3.5 % 3.9 % 5.3 % 3.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 3.0 % 3.5 % 3.9 % 4.6 % 3.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.7 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 1.8 % 0.3 % O&M) New capacity 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 1.7 % 0.2 % Existing 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.3 % 0.5 % Cross-border 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.0 % 0.2 % grid Distribution 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % grid Urban 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 3.4 % 3.9 % 4.4 % 5.7 % 3.7 % Investment 3.3 % 3.9 % 4.3 % 5.6 % 3.6 % cost Rehabilitation 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % cost Variable cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 1.9 % 0.4 % Total 3.8 % 4.4 % 4.8 % 7.6 % 4.1 % 160 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.227 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Congo (Br.) Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 44% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 2,339 2,734 2,998 3,980 2,166 Generation cost Rehabilitation 39 39 39 42 39 cost Investment 256 285 370 247 376 T&D cost Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Total 2,634 3,057 3,407 4,269 2,581 Table A1.228 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Congo (Br.) Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 44% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 23.5 % 27.4 % 30.1 % 39.9 % 24.1 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % cost Investment 2.6 % 2.9 % 3.7 % 2.5 % 4.2 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost Total 26.4 % 30.7 % 34.2 % 42.8 % 28.7 % 161 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Equatorial Guinea Table A1.229 Overview: Equatorial Guinea 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net exports (TWh) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 Generation capacity - installed 10 10 10 10 10 (MW) Generation capacity - 0 0 0 0 0 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 0 0 0 28 0 investments (MW) New cross-border 12 16 20 0 19 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 11 % 22 % 35 % 35 % 35 % Generation capacity 0% 0% 0% 73 % 0% mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 100 % 100 % 100 % 27 % 100 % Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Table A1.230 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Equatorial Guinea Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade expansion No new projects - - - Trade Name unknown 120 275 stagnation * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 162 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.231 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Equatorial Guinea Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 0 0 8 0 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 8 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0 0 0 0 0 New capacity 0 0 0 0 0 Installed 0 0 0 0 0 capacity Investment 1 2 3 2 2 T&D cost Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 grid Distribution 0 0 0 0 0 grid Urban 0 1 2 2 2 connection Rural 0 0 0 0 0 connection Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Variable cost (existing 0 0 0 0 0 capacity) Total Capital cost 1 2 3 11 3 Investment 1 2 3 11 2 Cost Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Variable cost 0 0 0 1 0 TOTAL 1 2 3 12 3 163 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.232 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Equatorial Guinea Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Existing 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Urban 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Investment 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % cost Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost Variable cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Total 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 164 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.233 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Equatorial Guinea Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 44% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 0 0 65 0 Generation cost Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Investment 5 12 20 20 19 T&D cost Rehabilitation 2 2 2 2 2 cost Total 7 14 23 86 22 Table A1.234 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Equatorial Guinea Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 44% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.0 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost Investment 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost Total 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.7 % 0.2 % 165 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Gabon Table A1.235 Overview: Gabon 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.9 Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net exports (TWh) -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -0.9 Generation capacity - installed 0 0 0 0 0 (MW) Generation capacity - 163 163 163 297 163 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 84 90 92 92 85 investments (MW) New cross-border 117 115 111 0 103 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 82 % 92 % 91 % 91 % 91 % Generation capacity 100 % 100 % 99 % 65 % 99 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 0% 0% 1% 35 % 1% Table A1.236 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Gabon Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade Two projects (names 90 not available expansion unknown) Trade Same stagnation * Plus mini-hydro in rural node 166 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.237 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Gabon Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 19 20 21 21 19 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 19 20 20 20 18 Other 0 0 1 1 1 Rehabilitation 9 9 9 12 9 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 9 9 9 9 9 Other 0 0 0 4 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 5 5 5 56 5 New capacity 0 0 0 0 0 Installed 5 5 5 56 5 capacity Investment 9 12 15 13 14 T&D cost Cross-border 2 2 2 0 2 grid Distribution 3 3 3 3 2 grid Urban 3 5 3 3 3 connection Rural 0 2 6 6 6 connection Rehabilitation 5 5 5 5 5 cost Variable cost (existing 8 8 8 8 8 capacity) Total Capital cost 41 46 49 51 47 Investment 27 32 36 34 33 Cost Rehabilitation 13 13 13 17 13 cost Variable cost 13 13 13 64 13 TOTAL 54 59 62 115 59 167 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.238 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Gabon Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National 44% targets for regional National National access rates, Current average targets for targets for trade access rate access rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.0 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Existing 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.0 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Urban 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Investment 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % cost Rehabilitation 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % cost Variable cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.5 % 0.1 % Total 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 1.0 % 0.5 % 168 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.239 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Gabon Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 44% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 144 155 161 161 149 Generation cost Rehabilitation 49 49 49 71 49 cost Investment 72 99 121 103 113 T&D cost Rehabilitation 38 38 38 38 38 cost Total 303 341 368 373 349 Table A1.240 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Gabon Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for 44% regional National National access rates, Current access average access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 1.2 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.4 % cost Investment 0.6 % 0.8 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 1.0 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % cost Total 2.5 % 2.9 % 3.1 % 3.1 % 3.1 % 169 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Islands States Cape Verde Table A1.241 Overview: Cape Verde 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0 Exports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0 Net exports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0 Generation capacity - installed 0 0 0 0 0 (MW) Generation capacity - 1 1 1 1 1 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 14 15 18 18 15 investments (MW) New cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 55 % 62 % 84 % 84 % 84 % Generation capacity 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% mix (%): Hydro Coal 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 95 % 95 % 96 % 96 % 95 % Table A1.242 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Cape Verde Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new expansion projects* - - - Trade No new stagnation projects* - - - * Only mini-hydro in rural node 170 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.243 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Cape Verde Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 3 3 4 4 3 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 3 3 4 4 3 Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 10 11 13 13 11 New capacity 10 11 13 13 11 Installed 0 0 0 0 0 capacity Investment 1 2 5 5 5 T&D cost Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 grid Distribution 1 1 1 1 1 grid Urban 0 1 1 1 1 connection Rural 0 1 3 3 3 connection Rehabilitation 1 1 1 1 1 cost Variable cost (existing 1 1 1 1 1 capacity) Total Capital cost 5 6 9 9 8 Investment 4 5 9 9 8 Cost Rehabilitation 1 1 1 1 1 cost Variable cost 11 12 15 15 12 TOTAL 16 18 24 24 21 171 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.244 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Cape Verde Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % O&M) New capacity 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % Existing 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % grid Urban 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Variable cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % Investment 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % cost Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % cost Variable cost 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % Total 1.0 % 1.1 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 172 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.245 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Cape Verde Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 15 17 21 21 18 Generation cost Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Investment 11 19 42 42 38 T&D cost Rehabilitation 6 6 6 6 6 cost Total 32 41 69 69 61 Table A1.246 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Cape Verde Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost Investment 0.7 % 1.1 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.8 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 % cost Total 1.9 % 2.5 % 4.1 % 4.1 % 4.5 % 173 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Madagascar Table A1.247 Overview: Madagascar 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0 Exports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0 Net exports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0 Generation capacity - installed 87 87 87 87 87 (MW) Generation capacity - 82 82 82 82 82 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 175 354 349 349 338 investments (MW) New cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 18 % 36 % 36 % 36 % 36 % Generation capacity 24 % 16 % 16 % 16 % 16 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 76 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % Table A1.248 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Madagascar Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new expansion projects* - - - Trade No new stagnation projects* - - - * Only mini-hydro in rural node 174 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.249 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Madagascar Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 33 70 70 70 68 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 33 70 70 70 68 Rehabilitation 4 4 4 4 4 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 4 4 4 4 4 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 142 266 261 261 253 New capacity 141 265 260 260 251 Installed 1 1 1 1 1 capacity Investment 25 129 135 135 134 T&D cost Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 grid Distribution 2 2 2 2 2 grid Urban 14 53 51 51 51 connection Rural 9 74 82 82 82 connection Rehabilitation 2 2 2 2 2 cost Variable cost (existing 6 6 6 6 6 capacity) Total Capital cost 64 206 211 211 208 Investment 58 200 205 205 202 Cost Rehabilitation 6 6 6 6 6 cost Variable cost 148 272 267 267 258 TOTAL 212 477 478 478 466 175 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.250 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Madagascar Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.5 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.5 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 2.0 % 3.7 % 3.6 % 3.6 % 3.7 % O&M) New capacity 1.9 % 3.7 % 3.6 % 3.6 % 3.7 % Existing 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 1.8 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 2.0 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Urban 0.2 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % connection Rural 0.1 % 1.0 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.2 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.9 % 2.8 % 2.9 % 2.9 % 3.0 % Investment 0.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 3.0 % cost Rehabilitation 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % cost Variable cost 2.0 % 3.8 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.8 % Total 2.9 % 6.6 % 6.6 % 6.6 % 6.8 % 176 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.251 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Madagascar Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 197 424 423 423 410 Generation cost Rehabilitation 25 25 25 25 25 cost Investment 198 1,041 1,086 1,086 1,082 T&D cost Rehabilitation 13 13 13 13 13 cost Total 432 1,503 1,546 1,546 1,530 Table A1.252 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Madagascar Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 2.7 % 5.9 % 5.8 % 5.8 % 6.0 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 % cost Investment 2.7 % 14.4 % 15.0 % 15.0 % 15.8 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % cost Total 6.0 % 20.8 % 21.4 % 21.4 % 22.3 % 177 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Mauritius Table A1.253 Overview: Mauritius 2015 Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Imports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0 Exports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0 Net exports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0 Generation capacity - installed 195 195 195 195 195 (MW) Generation capacity - 0 0 0 0 0 refurbishment (MW) Generation capacity - new 0 0 0 0 0 investments (MW) New cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 transmission (MW) Target Access Rate 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Generation capacity 30 % 30 % 30 % 30 % 30 % mix (%): Hydro Coal 60 % 60 % 60 % 60 % 60 % Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% Table A1.254 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Mauritius Planned capacity Lead time Cost estimate Scenario Project* (MW) (years) (Mill. USD) Trade No new expansion projects* - - - Trade No new stagnation projects* - - - * Only mini-hydro in rural node 178 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.255 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mauritius Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0 0 0 0 0 Generation cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 8 8 8 8 6 New capacity 0 0 0 0 0 Installed 8 8 8 8 6 capacity Investment 16 16 16 16 11 T&D cost Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 grid Distribution 13 13 13 13 8 grid Urban 1 1 1 1 1 connection Rural 2 2 2 2 2 connection Rehabilitation 9 9 9 9 9 cost Variable cost (existing 21 21 21 21 21 capacity) Total Capital cost 25 25 25 25 19 Investment 16 16 16 16 11 Cost Rehabilitation 9 9 9 9 9 cost Variable cost 29 29 29 29 28 TOTAL 54 54 54 54 47 179 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.256 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mauritius Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % O&M) New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Existing 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % capacity T&D Investment cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % grid Distribution 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % grid Urban 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % connection Rural 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % connection Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % (existing capacity) Total Capital cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 % Investment 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % cost Rehabilitation 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % cost Variable cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Total 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 180 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.257 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mauritius Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 1 1 1 1 1 Generation cost Rehabilitation 0 0 0 0 0 cost Investment 128 128 128 128 85 T&D cost Rehabilitation 69 69 69 69 69 cost Total 198 198 198 198 154 Table A1.258 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mauritius Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Investment 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Generation cost Rehabilitation 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % cost Investment 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.1 % T&D cost Rehabilitation 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 % cost Total 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 1.9 % 181 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Regional totals for the island states Table A1.259 Investment needs and generation mix in the island states after ten years (2005-2015) Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current 35% access targets for targets for trade access rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation capacity (in MW) - Installed 282 282 282 282 282 - Refurbishment 83 83 83 83 83 - New investments 189 369 368 368 353 Generation capacity mix (%): - Hydro 25 % 19 % 19 % 19 % 20 % - Coal 21 % 16 % 16 % 16 % 16 % - Gas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% - Other 53 % 65 % 65 % 65 % 64 % 182 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.260 Overnight investment costs in the island states over the next ten years (M$) Trade Trade expansion stagnation Low growth National targets for National National access rates, Current access 35% access targets for targets for trade rate rate access rates access rates expansion Generation Investment cost 213 442 445 445 428 Rehabilitation 25 25 25 25 25 cost T&D Investment cost 337 1,188 1,256 1,256 1,205 - Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 - Distribution 130 130 130 130 79 grid - Urban 119 440 428 428 428 connection - Rural 88 618 697 697 697 connection Refurbishement 87 87 87 87 87 cost Total 762 2,463 2,599 2,599 2,497 183 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.261 Annualized investment costs of system expansion in the island states (M$) Trade expansion Trade stagnation Low growth National targets Current access National targets National targets for access rates, rate 35% access rate for access rates for access rates trade expansion Generation Investment cost 36 73 74 74 71 Refurbishment cost 4 4 4 4 4 Variable cost (fuel, 160 285 283 283 270 O&M) - New capacity 151 276 273 273 262 - Existing capacity 9 9 9 9 8 T&D and connection Investment cost 42 148 156 156 150 - Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0 - Distribution grid 16 16 16 16 10 - Urban connection 15 55 53 53 53 - Rural connection 11 77 87 87 87 Refurbishment cost 11 11 11 11 11 Variable cost (existing 28 28 28 28 28 capacity) Total Capital cost 93 236 245 245 236 - Investment cost 78 221 230 230 220 - Refurbishment cost 15 15 15 15 15 Variable cost 188 313 311 311 298 TOTAL 282 549 556 556 534 184 COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1 Table A1.262 Annualized costs as a share of GDP in 2015 in the island states Trade expansion Trade stagnation Low growth National targets Current access National targets National targets for access rates, rate 35% access rate for access rates for access rates trade expansion Generation Investment cost 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Refurbishment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Variable cost (fuel, 0.9 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.7 % O&M) - New capacity 0.8 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 % - Existing capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % T&D and connection Investment cost 0.2 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % - Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % - Distribution grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % - Urban connection 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % - Rural connection 0.1 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % Refurbishment cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost (existing 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % capacity) Total Capital cost 0.5 % 1.3 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 % - Investment cost 0.4 % 1.2 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.4 % - Refurbishment cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Variable cost 1.0 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.8 % TOTAL 1.6 % 3.1 % 3.1 % 3.1 % 3.3 % Table A1.263 Long-run marginal costs in the island states ($ per MWh) Cost of domestic Total long-run Cost of generation transmission and marginal costs distribution Cape Verde 141 50 191 Madagascar 141 1 142 Mauritius 25 153 178 Average 139 126 265 Note: Average is weighted by annualized cost. 185