Energy Department Paper No. 17 EGY\7 A Survey of the Future Role of Hydroelectric Power in 100 Developing Countries August 1984 World Bank Energy Department A SURVEY OF THE FUTURE ROLE OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER IN 100 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES August 1984 Copyright (c) 1984 The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. This paper is one of a series issued by the Energy Deparment for the information and guidance of Bank staff. The paper may not be published or quoted as representing the views of the Bank Group, nor does the Bank Group accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. - i - ABSTRACT The paper reviews the forecast ed role of hydroelectricity in the power development programs of 100 developing countries in the period 1qs2- 1995, and provides estimates of the cost to identify and prepare the hydroelectric pro_;ects to the point where they may be considered for financing by sources such as the development finance institutions. Tables are included showing the hydro potential, hydro development status and electricity supply forecast for each country, as well as aggregates for each of the six Bank geographical regions and for the combined regions. The data base used for the background study summarized by the paper was prepared in early 1982 so in many cases the electricity supply forecasts are somewhat overstated, at least for the short term, and may not adequately reflect the continuing economic stress in many countries. Nevertheless, the results provide a guide to hydro's probable future role. The survey indicates that hydro will continue to play a significant role in developing-country power programs, accounting for 43% of electricity production by 1995. Preparation and engineering expenditures of about $10 billion will be needed in 1982-1990 for the projects required to support this growth. Despite the fact that by 1995 only about 16% of the technical hydro potential in developing countries will have been developed, the study con- cludes that an intensified hydro program would add only 3% to the capacity otherwise planned, because the main constraints to hydro development are economic and lack of power markets rather than lack of knowledge about resources and prospective projects. This is contrary to the widely-held view that aggressive development of hydro resources could be the key to energy problems in the developing countries. Nonetheless, the study identifies specific actions that can be taken in many countries to accelerate hydro development. - ii - FOREWORD This paper summarizes the results of a study that was initiated as a follow-up hydro resource review stemming from questions raised on hydro development after issue of the 1980 World Bank paper "Energy in the Developing Countries". Subsequently, at the request of the United Nations as part of the action program resulting from the 1981 Renewable Energy Conference in Nairobi, the study was expanded to include estimates of funding requirements needed to support the identification, preparation and engineering of hydroelectric projects in the developing countries. Part of the work included projections of the total electric power expansion programs in the developing countries, of which hydro is a significant part. In response to numerous requests for such data, this summary of the main report was prepared for general release to those interested in the results of the basic study. The data was obtained from information available in published reports and data available in the World Bank's files. In most cases, the projections reflect the official individual country programs; inclusion herein implies neither endorsement nor acceptance by the Bank of the specific national programs and projects. The data base used for the background study summarized by the paper was prepared in early 1982 so in many cases the electricity supply forecasts are somewhat overstated, at least for the short term, and may not adequately reflect the continuing economic stress in many countries. Nevertheless, the results provide a guide to hydro's probable future role. The study was conducted by Edwin Moore with the assistance of several consultants, notably George Smith, who also assisted in the preparation of this summary paper. World Bank Energy Department August 1984 - iii - A SURVEY OF THE FUTURE ROLE OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER IN 100 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No Introduction ......................................................... Background .••••••••••••••••••••..••••••••••..••••••.•••••.•.••••••••• 1 2 Methodology •••.•••••••••••••••••••.••••••••••.•.••••••••••.•••••••••• 2 Hydro's Future Role in the Developing Countries •••••••••••••••••••••• 3 1980-1995 Electricity Supply Projection•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 9 Power Investment Related to 1985-1995 Additions •••••••••••••••••••••• 13 Hydro Preparation Costs•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 13 Level of Adequacy of Hydro Development ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 16 General Observations on the Status of Hydro ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 19 TABLES IN TEXT Table 1: Hydro Development Status by Region•••••••••••••••••••••• 4 Table 2: Imbalances of Hydro Potential Markets••••••••••••••••••• 6 Table 3: Hydro Additions through 1995 by Region•••••••••••••••••• 6 Table 4: Hydro Additions through 1995 for Major Countries •••••••• 7 Table 5: Countries with Large Hydro Potential•••••••••••••••••••• 7 Table 6: Comparison of "Hydro-Rich" and "Hydro-Poor" Countries ••• 7 Table 7: Installed Capacity by Region, GW •••••••••••••••••••••••• 10 Table 8: Gross Production by Region, TWh ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 11 Table 9: Electricity Demand Growth Rates ••••• ; ••••••••••••••••••• 12 Table 10: Electricity Production for 15 Largest Countries ••••••••• 12 Table 11: Investment for 1985-1995 Additions, 1982 US$•••••••••••• 13 Table 12: 1982-1990 Hydro Preparation Costs ••••••••••••••••••••••• 14 Table 13: Variations in Regional Preparation Activity••••••••••••• 15 Table 14: Hydro Preparation Costs for Three Major Countries••••••• 15 Table 15: Countries Where Hydro Development Status is Poor•••••••• 16 Table 16: Countries Where Hydro Development Status is Moderate •••• 17 Table 17: Country Breakdown for Adequacy of Hydro Development ••••• 18 - iv - ANNEXES Page No. Annex I: List of 100 Countries Reviewed in Hydro Status Study . • • • • • • . . . . . . • . . • . • . • • • • • • . . . . . . . • . . . . . . 22 Annex II: Hydro Potential and Comparative 1980 and 1995 Hydro Use for 100 Developing Countries (Sorted by Region/Country) • • • • • • • • • • • • •. • • • • • • • • • • • • • 23 Annex III: Hydro Potential and Comparative 1980 and 1995 Hydro Use for 100 Developing Countries (Sorted by Potenti&l) ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 28 Annex IV: Hydro Potential and Comparative 1980 and 1995 Hydro Use for 100 Developing Countries (Sorted by Potential/1995 Market) ••••••••••••••••••• 32 Annex V: Hydro Potential Compared to Land Area for 100 Developing Countries (Sorted by Potential Density) ••••••••••••• 36 Annex VI: Electricity Supply Forecasts for 100 Developing Countries•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 39 Annex VII: Hydro Preparation Costs for 1982-1990 for 100 Developing Countries (Millions of 1982 US$) 48 Annex VIII: Development of Hydro Potential for 100 Developing Countries Level of Adequacy••••••••••••••••••••••••• 53 A SURVEY OF THE FUTURE ROLE OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER IN 100 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Introduction 1. This paper summarizes the results of a World Bank study of the role of hydroelectric power in 100 developing countries. The study covered the following for each country, together with aggregates for the six Bank regions and for the combined regions: • the technically exploitable hydro potential; JJ • the status of its development; • the 1980 and projected 1985, 1990 and 1995 demands for electricity; • the 1980 and projected (1995) total installed electricity generating capacity with breakdown for hydro, nuclear, geothermal and thermal ·(diesel, steam, gas turbine, combined cycle); • the 1980 and projected (1995) electricity gross production with breakdown for hydro, nuclear, geothennal, and thermal by fuel (oil, gas, coal); and • expenditures needed to support identification surveys, feasibility studies and engineering for hydro projects in the period 1982- 1990. 2. Throughout this paper the hydro potential figures used are the technically exploitable hydro potential, i.e., excluding any economic, social or environmental limitations. At the onset, then, it is important to make the distinction between theoretical, technical and economic hydro potential, as follows: • Theoretical hydro potential assumes full use for power of all runoff under the average available head, i.e., an integration of all possible theoretical power in the country. • Technical hydro potential is limited to the total potential of all sites where it is physically possible to construct works to develop head with no consideration of economics or any adverse impact of site development. !J All hydro potential figures in this paper refer to annual production under average flow conditions. - 2 - • Economic hydro potential is limited to the total potential of sites that can be developed at costs competitive with other sources and that have no unacceptable social or environmental impacts. Background 3. World Bank estimates made in 1980 indicated that about one-third of the developing country electricity production at that time was expected to be from oil thermal. Focusing on the adverse impact on the developing countries of oil imports for electricity, Bank management subsequently requested the Energy Department to evaluate the status of hydro development and its potential for limiting the use of oil for electricity production. At the 1981 Renewable Energy Conference in Nairobi plans were formulated to determine the preinvestment requirements for all forms of renewable energy, including hydro. This led to a late 1qa1 UNDP/Bank understauding that the Bank's hydro status review work would be expanded to include the study of hydro preinvestment requirements while also accelerating the work to meet the renewable energy preinvestment report schedule. For the hydro work it was decided arbitrarily to include all preparation costs through design engineering, i.e., all costs except engineering during construction. Methodology 4. The analysis of hydro potential and its expected role was made on a country-by-country basis. The 100 countries studied are listed in Annex I. The countries were grouped regionally to agree with the World Bank's regional organization to facilitate data collection and review. The study results were developed with the cooperation of the Bank's regional Projects staff. The hydro status review is a "desk" study based on hydro reconnaissance reports, project feasibility reports, project appraisal reports and other data avail- able in the Bank. 5. These data sources were used to compile hydro status notes for each country. Each country note included three summary tables facilitating developing regional and 100-country totals of: • the hydro potential and the hydro development status, i.e., sites developed, under construction and under investigation; • the electricity supply data for 1980 and projections for 1985, 1990 and 1995; and • the estimated hydro preparation costs. 6. The hydro preparation costs forming the "bottom-line" in the study include estimates of the costs of the following: • reviews of the adequacy of hydrological and meteorological data gathering systems and related training; - 3 - • reconnaissance surveys; • prefeasibility studies; • feasibility studies, including environmental impact; • system planning studies; • preliminary/final project engineering including bidding document preparation ( everything necessary for financial institution investment decisions), i.e, all preparation costs except engineering during construction, and • nominal amounts for general institutional strengthening. 7. The estimates of hydro preparation costs were developed country-by- country and project-by-project based on the planned programs and by estimating the later stages of generation expansion programs. Typical unit costs used were: • hydrometeorological reviews, reconnaissance, prefeasibili ty and system planning studies--US$200,000 to US$600,000; • feasibility studies--US$1 to US$3 million • engineering at 5% of total project cost; and • institutional measures--US$0.2 to US$10.0 million depending on country size and need. Hydro's Future Role in the Developing Countries 8. Based upon information available as of early 1982, the total tech- nical hydro potential for 100 developing countries is estimated at 7,802 TWh in an average year (1,676 GW of installed capacity). This information is summarized by region on Table 1. The significant findings are as follows: {a) The regions with the largest hydro potential are East Asia and LAC (Latin America and the Caribbean) comprising between them about 68% of the total 100-country capability. (b) West Africa and EMENA (Europe, Middle East and North Africa) are the regions with the smallest hydro potential, each having about 5% of the total 100-country capability. (c) Of the total 100-country potential of 7,802 TWh in an average year, only 494 TWh (6%) was actually developed as of early 1982; another 378 TWh (5%) was under construction. Of the remaining potential (89%) about 1,623 TWh (21%) was considered to be under active investigation to meet the needs of the power market. Table 1: Hydro Development Status By Region (as of early 1982) Annual Technical West East South East 100-Country Potential Africa Africa Asia Asia EMENA ]_/ LAC !!} Total TWh Installed 14 45 }_/ 60 78 76 221 494 Under Construction 9 37 47 72 48 165 378 Under Investigation 48 85 90 790 47 563 1,623 Remaining 301 826 526 1,752 186 1,716 5,307 Total 372 993 723 2,692 357 2,665 7,802 (%) (5) (13) (9) (34) (5) (34) ( 100) 1995 Demand lJ 85 63 }_/ 381 1,019 540 916 3,004 1995 Hydro Production 38 431} 163 263 140 630 1,277 % in 1995 Hydro Share 45 69 I 43 26 26 69 43 Potential Developed 10 4~ 23 10 39 24 16 ~ GW Installed 3 9 14 26 IQ 51 122 Under Construction 2 8 12 17 16 38 93 Under Investigation 10 17 21 155 15 126 344 Remaining 70 182 124 356 so 335 1,117 Total 85 216 171 554 100 550 1,676 1/ The demand and hydro usage refer to regional and 100-country use. In the case of East Africa some hydro is dedicated for export to South Africa. Therefore the total 1982 installed potential for East Africa is larger than the 1995 hydro usage to meet East Africa demand, because of the substantial export. 2/ Five percent usage if exports to South Africa are included. 3/ Europe, Middle East and North Africa. 4/ Latin America and the Caribbean. - 5 - (d) The fact that 68% remains as inactive does not imply inadequate resource development, but rather that markets for resources such as Amazon hydro or Zaire's 120,000 MW potential are not available. In general, hydro development in the developing countries is proceeding quite effectively, although some acceleration in resource analysis is necessary in areas such as West Africa. (e) By 1995 hydro generation is expected to account for about 43% of the total electricity supply of the 100 countries. In per- centage terms, LAC and East Africa are expected to be the highest with 69% of their generation being hydro. East Asia and EMENA will have the lowest hydro contribution, each with about 26%. (f) Despite a rather low percentage contribution of hydro, East Asia region is expected to generate about 263 TWh of hydro in 1995, making it the second largest hydro user. (g) LAC is expected to have the largest share of hydro generation in 1995 with 630 TWh. This represents 49% of the total 100-country hydro generation in 1995 {1,277 TWh). (h) By 1995, 16% of the total hydro potential of the 100 countries will have been utilized. This implies that because of economic constraints, including power market limits, only about one fourth of the total technical capacity is likely ever to be developed. By 1995, EMENA is expected to have the largest utilization (39%) followed by LAC (24%). The lowest utilization is expected to be East Africa (5%). (i) There are significant regional imbalances between hydro potentials and power markets, as shown in Table 2. 9. Annex II presents the regional hydro potentials, 1980 and 1995 usage and hydro capacity added between 1981 and 1995 for each of the 100 coun- tries. Based on expansion plan forecasts as of early 1982, the estimated amount of hydro capacity to be added between 1981 and 1995 is shown regionally in Table 3. 10. Table 3 shows that about 223,560 MW of hydro capacity will be added in the period 1981-1995; 43% of this will be in Latin America and the Caribbean. It is interesting to note that of the total capacity expected to be added during the 15-year period, three countries account for 51% of this amount as shown in Table 4. 11. The individual country hydro potentials, 1980 and 1995 usage, and hydro capacity added are shown in Annex III sorted by potential. It is important to note that 6 of the 100 countries account. for about 60% of the hydro potential as shown in Table 5. - 6 - Table 2: Imbalances of Hydro Potential and Markets Annual Technical 1995 Ratio of Hydro Potential Demand Potential to Region TWh TWh 1995 Demand l/ West Africa 372 85 4.4 East Africa 993 63 15.8 South Asia 723 381 1.9 East Asia & Pacific 2,692 1,019 2.6 Europe, Middle East & North Africa 357 540 0.7 Latin America & Caribbean 2,665 916 2.9 Total 7,802 3,004 2.6 1/ This ratio helps to identify the regions that have large hydro potential relative to power market size, i.e., East and West Africa. Table 3: Hydro Additions through 1995 by Region Technical Hydro Installed Hydro Hydro Added Potential 1980 1995 1981 - 1995 Region MW MW MW MW % West Africa 85,545 2,793 9,703 6,910 3.1 East Africa 216,480 7,465 17,988 10,523 4.7 South Asia 171,150 14,218 43,749 29,531 13.2 East Asia & Pacific 553,928 25,252 79,379 54,127 24.2 Europe, Middle East & North Africa 99,619 18,384 45,341 26,957 12.1 Latin America & Caribbean 550,081 47,375 142,887 95,512 42.7 100-Country Total 1,676,803 115,487 339,047 223,560 100.0 - 7 - Table 4: Hydro Additions Through 1995 for Major Countries Hydro Added 1981 - 1995 Country MW % Brazil 55,531 24.8 China 34,682 15.5 India 23,206 10.4 Remaining 97 Countries 110,141 49.3 Total 223,560 100.0 Table 5: Countries with Large Hydro Potential Annual Technical Hydro Potential TWh % China 1,923 24.6 Brazil 934 12.0 Zaire 530 6.8 Colombia 521 6.7 India 396 5.1 Peru 390 5.0 Subtotal 4,694 60.2 Remaining 94 Countries 3,109 39.8 Total 7,803 100.0 Table 6: Comparison of "Hydro-Rich" and "Hydro-Poor" Countries Annual Total 1995 Total 1995 Use of 1995 Country Hydro Energy Hydro Hydro Hydro Classification Potential Required Output Potential Share and (Number) GWh GWh GWh % % Hydro Rich (38) 3,175,861 174,879 153,239 4.8 87.6 Hydro Poor (62) 4,626,398 2,829,059 1,124,594 24.3 39.8 Total (100) 7,802,259 3,003,938 1,277,833 16.4 42.5 - 8 - 12. The relatively low utilization of hydro resources (Table 1) evident in the various regions is accounted for partly as a result of the cost of developing the more expensive remaining hydro and also due to the effect of those countries whose power market is small relative to the large hydro power resources. Aside from the regional imbalances mentioned previously (paragraph 8), there are within regions similar imbalances. Annex IV shows the 100 countries sorted by the ratio of hydro potential to 1995 power market. The significant findings are: (a) Of the 100 countries, 38 are considered as being "hydro-rich," i.e., the ratio of potential to 1995 power market is 4 or greater. (b) The six countries richest in hydro potential relative to forecast 1995 demand are Laos (368 times 1995 demand), Equatorial Guinea (150), Kampuchea (111), Zaire (93), Congo (83), Papua New Guinea (69). ( c) The six richest countries have a combined hydro potential of 906,000 GWh or 11.6% of the 100-country total, while the expected 1995 demand of these countries is only 9,038 GWh or 0.3% of the 100-country total. (d) For the 100 countries only 16.4% of the hydro potential will have been utilized by 1995. Hydro's share of total generation in 1995 will be 42.5%. (e) The imbalance between hydro potentials and markets is shown in Table 6 which separates the "hydro-rich" and "hydro-poor" countries. 13. From Table 6, it is seen that the "hydro-rich" countries as a group will be using hydro for almost 90% of the electricity supply limited only by considerations such as economics of size, location, and dry season energy requirements. The "hydro-poor" countries comprise two broad classifications, those which have little or no potential and those which have or will have utilized a significant portion of their potential by 1995. Those in the latter classification will have already developed the more economic sites and sites closer to the load centers. Consequently the scope for acceleration of hydro is not as great as the 100-country totals would indicate. 14. The geographical diversity of the 100 countries studied and its effect on hydro potential is illustrated in Annex V. This shows the hydro potential of each of the 100 countries expressed on a unit of area basis (kW per square km). The values range from O for desert and flat countries without hydro potential to 178 for Costa Rica. This gives a rough measure of the relative advantages countries have in terms of hydro potential density due to high precipitation, topography, etc. - 9 - 1980-1995 Electricity Supply Projection 15. The summaries of the electricity supply projections are shown in Table 7 which gives installed capacity (GW) and Table 8 which shows gross production (TWh). These projections were based on country development programs which were available at the time of the study. Many of these programs have been modified subsequently as a result of resource constraints, slowed growth, and development of alternative resources. They therefore represent a likely upper limit of the hydro development which actually will be implemented in the study period. These changes are most pronounced in LAC and Africa where programs have been deferred an average of two years; programs in other regions are likely to be close to the projections. The significant findings of the projections based on country development programs are as follows: (a) Total installed hydro capacity for the six regions is seen to rise from 115.6 GW in 1980 to 339.l GW in 1995, or from 41.6% of total installed generating capacity in 1980 to 46.6% in 1995. (b) Hydro is expected to comprise 49% of all generating capacity added during 1980 to 1995. The remainder is expected to be thermal (42%), nuclear (8%), and geothermal (1%). ~ (c) On a regional basis the largest amount of hydro capacity added between 1980 and 1995 will be in Latin America (95.5 GW out of a total capacity addition of 138.1 GW) followed by East Asia (54.1 GW out of a total capacity addition of 136.1 GW). (d) The least amount of hydro added will be in West Africa (6.9 GW) followed by East Africa (10.5 GW). (e) The amount of thermal capacity is expected to increase from 159.7 GW in 1980 to 347.4 GW in 1995. However, the thermal capacity percentage will decrease from 5 7.-5% of total installed capacity in 1980 to 47.7% in 1995. (f) Gross production for hydro generation is expected to increase from 445 TWh in 1980 to 1,281 TWh in 1995 or from 40.8% of total gross generation in 1980 to 42.6% in 1995. (g) Thermal oil generation is expected to decrease from about 23% of total generation in 1980 to only about 6% by 1995 as alternatives are implemented. (h) All other forms of generation are expected to increase. By 1995 total generation is expected to be supplied as follows: Hydro (42.6%), coal (35.6%), gas (8.1%), nuclear (6.4%), oil (6.2%), geothermal (1.1%). (i) Table 9 summarizes the composite growth rates of electricity demand for the six regions. Table i: Installed Capacity by Region, GW West East South East 100-Country Africa Africa Asia Asia EMENA lf LACY Total (%) 1980 Thermal 3.0 2.0 23.1 67.7 32.6 31.3 159.7 (57.5) Geothermal 0.4 0.2 0.6 (0.2) Nuclear 1. 0 0.6 0.4 2.0 (0.7) Hydro 2.8 7.5 14.2 25.3 18.4 47.4 115.6 (41.6) Total 5.8 9.5 38.3 94.0 51.0 79.3 277.9 (100. 0) 1995 Thermal 12.0 4.4 51.0 134.4 84.8 60.8 347.4 (47.7) Geothermal 0.1 4.0 negl. 1. 3 5.4 (0.7) t-' 0 Nuclear 4.9 12.3 6.5 12.4 36.1 (5.0) Hydro 9.7 18.0 43.8 79.4 45.3 142.9 339.1 (46.6) Total 21.7 22.5 99.7 230.1 136.6 217 .4 728.0 (100.0) Added 1980-1995 Thermal 9.0 2.4 27.9 66.7 52.2 29.5 187.7 (41. 7) Geothermal 0.1 3.6 negl. 1.1 4.8 ( I. 0) Nuclear 3.9 11. 7 6.5 12.0 34.1 (7. 6) Hydro 6.9 10.5 29.6 54.1 26.9 95.5 223.5 (49.7) Total 15.9 13.0 61.4 136.1 85.6 138.1 450.1 (100. 0) (%) (3.5) (2.9) (13. 7) (30.2) (19.0) (30. 7) (100.0) 1/ Europe, Middle East and North Africa. 2/ Latin America and the Caribbean. Table 8: Gross Production by Region, TWh West East South East 100-Country Africa Africa Asia Asia EMENA l/ LACY Total (%) 1980 Oil 4 4 3 123 38 75 247 (22. 7) Gas 5 8 2 37 18 70 (6.4) Coal negl. 1 56 195 54 9 315 (28.9) Geothermal 2 1 3 (0.3) Nuclear 5 3 2 10 (0.9) Hydro 11 23 59 74 77 201 445 (40.8) Total 20 28 131 399 206 306 1,090 (100. O) (%) (1.8) (2.6) (12.0) (36.6) (18. 9) (28.1) (100.0) 1995 .... .... Oil 2 3 5 51 55 71 187 (6.2) Gas 44 1 29 42 63 65 244 (8.1) Coal negl. 13 157 568 248 81 1,067 (35.6) Geothermal 1 24 negl. 9 34 (1.1) Nuclear 27 70 34 60 191 (6.4) Hydro 39 45 163 264 140 630 1,281 (42.6) Total 85 63 381 1,019 540 916 3,004 (100.0) (%) (2.8) (2.1) (12.7) (33. 9) (18.0) (30. 5) (100.0) y Europe, Middle East and North Africa. y Latin America and the Caribbean. - 12 - Table 9: Electricity Demand Growth Rates Gross Production Average 1980 1995 Annual Region TWh TWh Growth % West Africa 20 85 10. 3 JJ East Africa 28 63 5.6 South Asia 131 381 7.4 East Asia 399 1,019 6.5 EMENA 206 540 6.6 LAC 306 916 7.9 Total 1,090 3,004 7.0 1/ 6.4% average without Nigeria. 16. The power demand and supply projections for all individual countries are shown in Annex VI grouped by region. It is interesting to note that the 15 largest countries in terms of gross production account for about 85% of total forecasted gross production requirements. This is illustrated in Table 10. Table 10: Electricity Production for 15 Largest Countries Total Electricity Production Average 1980 1995 Annual Growth Country 1Wh 1Wh % Argentina 40 82 4.9 Brazil 133 439 8.3 China 301 625 5.0 Colombia 21 53 6.4 Egypt 19 52 6.9 India 111 307 7.0 Indonesia 10 81 15.0 Korea 37 124 8.4 Mexico 64 203 8.0 Pakistan 15 47 7.9 Philippines 19 53 7.1 Romania 68 123 4.0 Thailand 16 52 8.2 Turkey 25 78 7.9 Yugoslavia 59 165 7.1 Subtotal 938 ( 86%) 2,484 ( 83%) 6.7 Other 85 Countries 153 ( 14%) 520 ( 17%) 8.5 Total 1,091 (100%) 3,004 (100%) 7.0 - 13 - Power Investment Related to 1985-1995 Additions 17. Table 11 shows an order of magnitude estimate of the investment requirements for power facilities installed to provide the system capacity additions in the 100 countries during the period 1985-1995. Because of the skewing of lead times varying from 2 to 10 years, the related 10-year investment period might be 1983-1993. Bearing in mind that the demand projections were based on early 1982 expectations and country programs (paragraph 15), the power investment figure of US$578 billion is an upper limit. US$500 billion might be a "most likely" figure. Table 11: Investment for 1985-1995 Additions, 1982 US$ MW Unit Total Facility Added Cost $/kW Cost_ $B Thermal 136,087 800 109 Geothermal 4,074 1,800 7 Nuclear 26,525 1,900 50 Hydro 172,948 1,500 259 Transmission & Distribution 339,634 450 153 Total 339,634 1,700 578 Hydro Preparation Costs 18. Table 12 summarizes by region the hydro preparation costs for 1982 through 1990, based upon expansion plans available as of early 1982. Annex VII shows the hydro project preparation costs by country. The significant findings are as follows: (a) The total preparation costs for 100 countries are US$10,095 million (1982 constant dollars) of which 1,284 million (13%) would be required for work to be done prior to starting project engineering. This is roughly related to a hydro capital investment totalling some US$200 - 220 billion for plants that will be commissioned during 1987-1995 (the long lead time for hydro preparation results in a larger displacement of average preparation expend! ture period and capacity commissioning times). (b) About 70% to 90% of the hydro preparation work is for project engineering. Table t2: 1982-1990 Hydro Preparation Costs (Millions of 1982 US$) West East South East 100-Country Africa Africa Asia Asia EMENA Ji LACY Total Hydrological Systems 4 9 2 7 7 29 Reconnaissance Surveys 4 3 2 5 4 4 22 Prefeasibility Studies 14 22 7 89 25 157 Feasibility Studies 90 53 232 182 105 214 876 System Planning Studies 5 10 6 18 5 44 Institutional Strengthening 29 21 20 11 22 53 156 Project Engineering 333 397 929 2,216 1,202 3,937 8,8ll Total 479 515 1,198 2,528 1,333 4,244 10,095 (%) (4. 7) (5.1) (11.9) (25.0) (13.2) (40.1) (100.0) I-' % Foreign/Local 80/20 80/20 17 /83 31/69 28/72 23/77 30/70 .i,,. Foreign 383 412 202 779 370 938 3,064 Local 96 103 996 1,749 963 3,124 7,031 1/ Europe, Middle East and North Africa. 2/ Latin America and the Caribbean. - 15 - (c) The preparation activities for hydro vary by region depending on the present level of project preparation. Typical patterns are shown in Table 13 for West Africa (still identifying projects) and Latin America and the Caribbean (at the feasibility and design level for many projects). Table 13: Variations in Regional Preparation Activity Latin America and West Africa the Caribbean Preparation Activity $M % $M % Hydrometeorological review 4 0.8 7 0.2 Reconnaissance surveys 4 0.8 4 0.1 Prefeasibility studies 14 2.9 25 0.6 System planning studies 5 1.1 5 0.1 Institutional strengthening 29 6.1 53 1.3 Feasibility studies 90 18.8 214 5.3 Engineering 333 69.5 3,734 92.4 Total 479 100.0 4,042 100.0 19. Annex VII shows the hydro preparation costs for each of the 100 countries for the period 1982-1990 grouped by region. Three countries account for about 44% of the total cost as shown in Table 14. Table 14: Hydro Preparation Costs for Three Major Countries Preparation Costs Country $USM % China 1,500.0 14.9 Brazil 2,016.7 20.0 India 962.0 9.6 Subtotal 4,478.7 44.5 Remaining Countries 5,616.2 55.6 Total 10,094.9 100.0 - 16 - Level of Adequacy of Hydro Development 20. Annex VIII summarizes the level of adequacy of hydro development in each of the 100 countries. Included in that Annex is also a short note on each country relating to the existing level of hydro development as of early 1982, future development and specific problems which may limit hydro develop- ment. The level of adequacy is a subjective appraisal of the state of preparedness of the country to develop additional hydro power. Three categories are included: poor, moderate, and adequate. 21. Countries whose level of adequacy is considered poor are those who have a reasonable amount of estimated potential relative to system demand and who have not as yet conducted comprehensive reconnaissance or prepared a current inventory of possible sites. Without this basic information, hydro cannot be considered in the context of system planning. Table 15 summarizes those countries whose current level of adequacy is considered poor. According to the expansion plans for 1980 through 1995, a number of these countries expect to develop a significant amount of hydro by 1995 and are thus already considering an accelerated program. Table 15: Countries Where Hydro Development Status is Poor Annual 1900 1995 Technical Total l:fydro Total l:fydro Potential Generation Output Generation Output Country Gh Goll Gm Gm 0 2,140 Sao 'l'aoo & Princi.~ 50 200 10 8 80.0 4.0 2 54 50 92.6 25.0 15 13 Senegal Sierra le~ 500 1,300 2,500 6,800 635 230 10 4.3 0.1 2 1,310 450 1,250 370 95.4 82.2 50.0 5.4 300 72 300 >t1 70 Ill i Togo 270 1,000 275 1,150 120 10.4 12.0 50 50~ tr.1 Up~r Volta 200 800 107 512 115 22.5 14.4 34 34 I-' ~ -- H Sub Total 85,545 372,580 20,080 10,523 52.4 2Jf 2,793 85,236 37,929 44.5 10.2 9,703 6,910 g, H 1/ Refers to indi~oos or natiroal hydro, including share of international sites. HYmO FOTENITAL AND mtPARATIVE 1980 AND 1995 HYffiO um FOR 100 IEVELQ>I~ roum.RIBS (Sorte::l by Reg:f.on/Comtry) 1980 1995 Annual Teclnical Total Use of Total Use of Hydro Hydro Fhergy Hydro Hydro Hydro Installed Ehergy Hydro Hydro Hydro Installed Mred Potential Rai_uired Output Share Potential Hydro "ffe1uired Chlput Share Potential Hydro '80-'95 Region/Country Kl Gh GJh ro Islan::ls 10 so 6 1 16.7 2.0 1 15 6 40.0 12.0 3 2 Djibooti 115 480 Ethiopia 12,000 60, 450 2, tx:I ~ N 1/ Includes capacity dedicate::l to E!KJX)rt to South Africa. 0 H H Hl lit HYffiO IDThNITAL AND a:MPARATIVE 1980 AND 1995 HYIRO IBE FOR 100 IEVEUJ>UG ffiUNIRIES (Sorte:l by Reg:fon/Cotn.try) 1980 1995 Annual Teclnical Total Use of Total Use of Hydro Hydro fuetgy Hydro Hydro Hydro Installed Ehetgy Hydro Hydro Hydro Installed Afcl:!d Potential Require:! Output Share Potential Hydro Required rocco 2,453 4,045 4,761 1,515 31.8 37.5 613 17,340 4,045 23.3 100.0 2,453 1,840 Portugal 6,000 20,000 15,370 9,642 62.7 48.2 2,268 35,000 13,151 37.6 65.8 3,831 1,563 Ranania 12,300 37,COO 67,873 12,530 18.5 33.9 3,414 123,000 27,000 22.0 73.0 9,114 5,700 Syria 1,'lB2 3,800 3,714 2,561 69.0 67.4 822 15,801 14.2 I 2,236 58.8 1,182 360 N '1\nisia 65 100 2,603 46 1.8 46.0 29 10,984 100 0.9 100.0 65 36 Turkey 32,000 115,000 24,617 11,348 46.1 9.9 2,131 77,775 35,429 45.6 30.8 8,775 6,644 °' I Yaren A.R. 166 2,470 Ye-oon P.D.R. 176 1,050 Yugoslavia 11 ,cm 64,000 59,300 27,910 47.1 43.6 6,115 164,600 43,626 . 26.5 68.2 15,820 9,705 Sub Total 99,619 356,789 206,256 76,187 36.9 21.4 18,384 539,798 139,771 25.9 39.2 45,341 26,957 HYIRO roTENITAL AND CXMPARATIVE 1900 AND 1995 HYIRO lSE FOR 100 fEVEIJFilG OOUN.IRIES (Sorted by Region/Country) 1900 1995 Annual Teclnical Total Use of Total Use of Hydro Hydro "fuer:gy Hydro Hydro Hydro Installed "fuer:gy Hydro Hydro Hydro Installed .Added Potential Required Output Share Potential Hydro Required Output Share Potential Hydro '8(}-'95 Region/fumtry Ml Gh Gh Gh % % Ml Gh Gh % i}1W m IATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN Argentina 46,000 200,000 39,500 15,200 38.4 7.6 4,533 82,250 44,400 54.0 22.2 11,813 7,280 Barba:los 340 940 Belize 300 1,500 81 162 112 69.1 7.5 22 22 Bolivia 18,ax> 90,000 1,553 1,065 68.6 1.2 'lB7 5,141 4,038 78.5 4.5 831 544 Brazil 213,140 933,553 132,866 119,874 90.2 12.8 27,267 438,823 385,480 87.8 41.3 82,798 55,531 Clrl.le 18,772 111,657 11,751 7,343 62.5 6.6 1,471 29,772 25,929 87.1 23.2 5,024 3,553 O>lanbia 94,358 520,772 20,650 14,470 70.1 2.8 2,908 52,910· 45,644 86.2 8.8 11,203 8,295 Costa Rica 9,071 37,000 2,229 2,133 95.7 5.8 456 5,716 5,140 89.9 13.9 2,433 1,977 Iminica 18 84 6 5 83.3 6.0 3 34 32 94.1 38.1 7 4 I lbninican Republic 1.~ 9,000 3,504 208 5.9 2.3 172 9,100 1,500 16.5 16.7 510 338 N ....... Eruador 22,733 97,532 3,632 936 25.8 1.0 215 14,755 13,155 89.2 13.5 2,467 2,252 I El. Salva:lor 1,377 5,034 1,472 1,062 72.1 21.1 242 4,950 3,650 73.7 72.5 1,082 840 Guatanala 5,426 21,522 1,450 270 18.6 1.3 100 6,864 6,474 94.3 30.1 1,558 1,458 Chy.ma 8,000 42,000 500 5 1.0 2 1,050 950 90.5 2.3 230 228 Haiti 152 767 299 241 00.6 31.4 44 1,200 760 63.3 99.1 152 108 Fbo:luras 2,000 12,300 890 656 73.7 5.3 122 3,876 3,379 87.2 27.5 772 650 Jamaica 100 470 2,400 108 4.5 23.0 20 3,740 450 12.0 95.7 96 76 ~o 25,250 83,176 64,000 25,000 39.1 30.1 6,491 202,930 48,000 23.7 57.7 12,987 6,496 Nicaragua 4,106 17,277 1,061 470 44.3 2.7 103 4,801 2,243 46.7 13.0 609 506 Panama 3,031 16,233 2,484 1,393 56.1 8.6 297 5,314 4,993 94.0 30.8 1,274 977 Paraguay 10,965 54,417 700 681 97.3 1.3 194 4,494 4,482 99.7 8.2 1,023 829 Peru 60,000 390,000 9,005 6,868 70.0 1.8 1,863 27,115 22,295 82.2 5.7 4,176 'l,313 Surinare 2,334 12,840 1,672 937 56.0 7.3 189 1,932 1,123 58.1 8.7 217 28 Uruguay 2,248 7,520 3,500 l,gx) 54.3 25.3 3% 8,390 5,941 70.8 79.0 1,603 1,207 Sub Total 550,081 2,664,654 306,425 200,825 65.5 -r:s 47,375 916,319 630,170 68.8 23.6 142,887 95,512 ttj Total 1,676,003 7,802,259 1,090,698 437,779 40.1 5.6 115,487 3,003,938 1,277,833 42.5 16.4 339,047 223,56~ Pl i trj ::,.,: V, H 0 H 1-h V, HYIRO IDTENITAL AND m1PARATIVE 1980 AND 1995 H.YfRO IBE FOR 100 IEVEUFlr-G OOUNI'RIES (&>rte! by Potential) 1980 1995 Annual Teclnical Total Use of Total Use of Hydro Hydro Fheigy I-fydro Y Hydro Hydro Instal1-rJ Fhetgy Hydro Y Hydro Hydro Instal1-rJ .Adrecl Potential Required Output Share Potential Hydro_: Required Output Share Potential Hydro.!_ 1 80-- 195 Chm.try M-1 Gh Gh Gh % % Mv Gm Gm % % Mv Mv China 378,532 1,923,300 300,627 58,211 19.4 3.0 20,318 625,000 183,000 29.3 9.5 55,000 34,682 Brazil 213,140 933,553 132,866 119,874 90.2 12.8 27,267 438,823 385,400 87.8 41.3 82,798 55,531 Zaire 120,000 530,000 4,200 4,100 97.6 0.8 1,077 5,700 5,650 99.1 1.1 2,757 1,680 Colanbl.a 94,358 520,772 20,650 14,470 70.1 2.8 2.~ 52,970 45,644 86.2 8.8 11,203 8,295 Wia 100,000 396,000 110,900 47,000 42.4 11.9 11,794 306,600 126,500 41.3 31.9 35,000 23,206 Peru 60,000 390,000 9,805 6,868 70.0 1.8 1,863 27,115 22,295 82.2 5.7 4,176 2,313 Argentina 46,000 200,000 39,580 15,200 38.4 7.6 4,533 82,250 44,400 54.0 22.2 11,813 7,280 Bunna 30,000 160,000 1,340 770 57.5 0.5 179 4,320 3,50) 90.3 2.4 750 571 Irrlonesia 32,000 160,000 10,400 2,500 23.9 1.6 748 80,910 23,000 28.4 14.4 6,700 5,952 I lacs 28,000 150,000 126 126 100.0 0.1 130 408 408 100.0 0.3 170 40~ Papua ta., Guinea 29,000 140,000 1,293 316 24.4 0.2 99 2,020 1,520 75.2 I.I 293 194 I Turkey 32,000 115,000 24,617 11,348 46.1 9.9 2,131 77,775 35,429 45.6 30.8 8,775 6,644 Chile 18,772 111,657 11,751 7,343 62.5 6.6 1,471 29,7n 25,929 87.1 23.2 5,024 3,553 Malaysia 25,800 101,000 9,888 1,268 12.8 1.3 642 41,997 15,288 36.4 15.1 3,204 2,562 Afghanistan 25,000 100,000 731 550 75.2 o.s 260 3,040 2,700 · 88.8 2.7 878 618 Angola 23,000 100,000 1,800 1,000 55.6 1.0 553 3,300 3,000 90.9 3.0 1.~ 1,347 Caneroon 23,000 100,000 1,500 1,370 91.3 1.4 263 5,880 5,780 98.3 5.8 1,040 777 Ecuaior 22,733 97,532 3,632 936 25.8 1.0 215 14,755 13,155 89.2 13.5 2,467 2,252 Tbailarrl 20,146 90,432 15,511 1,656 10.7 1.8 1,270 . 52,191 8,511 16.3 9.4 3,508 2,238 Bolivia 18,000 90,000 1,553 1,065 68.6 1.2 287 5,141 4,038 78.5 4.5 831 544 Mexico 25,250 83,176 64,000 25,000 39.1 30.1 6,491 202,930 48,000 23.7 57.7 12,987 6,496 Gabon 18,000 80,000 578 438 75.8 o.s 137 2,400 2,300 95.8 2.9 800 663 Nepal 18,250 80,000 229 177 77.3 0.2 52 1,250 1,245 99.6 1.6 322 270 Pakistan 19,000 76,000 14,700 8,500 57.8 11.2 1,800 46,700 25,000 53.5 32.9 6,260 4,460 fuzambiqte 15,000 72,000 800 400 50.0 0.6 2,258 2,200 2,100 95.5 2.9 4,050 1,792 Sub Total 1,435,583 6,000,422 783,137 330,486 42.2 4.9 88,746 2,115,447 1,034,272 48.9 15.2 262,706 173,%~.i lb ttj :>< 1/ ReferT to inli.genrus or national hydro, including share of international sites. I-' H 0 H Hi H .f;-- HYIRO I:OTENITAL AND Cll1PARATIVE 1980 AND 1995 HYIRO IBE FOR 100 DEVEL OQ (I) i tTENI'IAL AND al1PARATIVE 1980 AND 1995 HY'IRO IBE FOR 100 DEVEUPIKi OOUNI'RIES (Sorterl by Potential) 1980 1995 Anrua1 Teclnical Total Use of Total Use of Hydro Hydro Ehergy Hydro Hydro Hydro Installed Ehergy Hydro Hydro Hydro Installed Mded Potential Required Ort:put Share Potential Hydro Required Output Share Potential. Hydro '80-'95 Coontry M'1 Gh ~ ~ % % M-1 GA1 Gm% % m M-1 Horrluras 2,800 12,300 8~ 656 73.7 5.3 122 3,876 3,379 87.2 27.5 772 650 Ll.beria 2,000 11,000 1,000 400 40.0 3.6 68 1,550 1,500 96.8 13.6 480 412 Cltana 2,000 10,000 4,910 4,855 98.9 48.5 7ublic. Of) 2,000 3,500 37,239 1,467 3.9 41.9 757 123,700 3,200 2.6 91.4 1,760 1,003 Rwan:la 600 3,000 73 10 13.7 0.3 12 285 275 96.S 9.2 86 74 Swazilan:1 600 3,000 308 117 38.0 3.9 20 678 399 58.8 13.3 80 60 Senegal 500 2,500 635 1,310 1,250 95.4 so.o 300 300 Fiji 400 2,000. 300 720 650 90.3 32.5 240 240 Iesoth> 450 2,000 43 66 60 90.9 3.0 so so Belize 300 1,500 81 162 ll2 69.1 7.5 22 22 Benin 500 1,500 100 94 86.2 6.3 456 306 67.1 20.4 so so Sub Total 34,910 140,009 67,804 17,685 26.1 12.6 4,688 220,316 44,642 20.3 31.9 14,346 9,658 '"ti w Pl OQ ID I t>4 H 0 H t-h H .p. HYrRO IDTENrIAL AND Im OJUNl'RIES (Sorta:l by Potential) 1980 1995 Anrrua1 Teclnical Total Use of Total Use of Hydro Hydro Inergy Hydro lfy'dro lfy'dro Installed Ehergy lfy'dro Hydro lfy'dro Installed Afded Potential Reqtd.red Output Share Potential Hydro Required Out.put Share Potential lfy'dro '80-'95 fumtry M'1 Gl1 rull ~ % % M.J GA! GA!% % MW Mv Niger 235 1,330 230 106 46.1 8.0 630 230 36.5 17.3 75 75 Togo 270 1,000 275 1,150 120 10.4 12.0 50 50 Upper Volta 200 800 107 512 115 22.5 14.4 34 34 Haiti 152 767 299 241 80.6 31.4 44 1,200 7flJ 63.3 99.1 152 108 Jamaica 100 470 2,400 108 4.5 23.0 20 3,740 450 12.0 95.7 96 76 Gui.nea-Bissai 60 300 30 180 160 88.9 53.3 30 30 Algeria 'lB7 284 5,909 284 4.8 100.0 287 27,156 284 1.0 100.0 '2137 Sao Tane & Principe 50 200 10 8 80.0 4.0 2 54 50 92.6 25.0 15 13 Sanalia 50 200 110 4flJ 160 34.8 80.0 37 37 Ota::l 30 150 100 205 l,J Mnlritius 65 115 400 83 20.3 72.2 23 Bex> 115 12.9 100.0 65 42 I-' Tunisia 65 100 2,603 46 1.8 46.0 29 10,984 100 0.9 100.0 65 36 I fun:inica 18 84 6 s 83.3 6.0 3 34 32 94.1 38.1 7 4 Jordan 22 60 1,072 6,018 Camro Islams 10 so 6 1 16.7 2.0 1 15 6 40.0 12.0 3 2 Seychelles 4 20 51 212 5 2.4 25.0 1 1 Botwana 1 5 423 1,775 Barbaloo 340 940 Cape Venle 8 25 Cyprus 1,022 3,394 lljibooti 115 480 Mauritania 100 280 The Gambia 40 130 YalV:!n A.R. 166 2,470 Yaren P,D.R. 176 1,050 Sub Total 1,619 5,935 16,006 882 5.5 14.9 409 63,984 2,587 4.0 43.6 917 508: ~ (1) i tr:I X Total 1,676,803 7,802,259 l,O'X>,698 437,779 40.1 5.6 115,487 3,003,938 1,277,833 42,5 16.4 339,047 223,560 .i::- H 0 H H, H .i:,.. HYmO IDTENITAL AND CIMPARATIVE 1980 AND 1995 HYIRO IBE mR 100 DEVELCPIW (X)lJNllUES (Sorted by Potential/1995 Market) 1900 1995 Annual Teclnical Total Use of Total Use of Ratio of Hydro Ehergy Hydro Y Hydro Hydro Tnstalij Ehergy Hydro Y Hydro Hydro Insta11r,J Potential Potential Reqtdred Output Share Potential Hydro- Reqtdred Output Share Potential Hydro.!.. to 1995 Country M-1 Gh GJh mi % % m Gil GJh % % m Muket Laos 28,000 150,000 126 126 100.0 0.1 130 400 408 100.0 0.3 170 367.6 Equatorial Guf.nea 2,000 6,000 8 40 25 62.5 0.4 6 150.0 Kanpochea 10,000 30,000 100 50 so.o 0.2 18 270 270 100.0 0.9 139 Ill. I Zaire 120,000 530,000 4,200 4,100 97.6 0.8 1,077 5,700 5,650 99.1 1.1 2,757 93.0 fuqi;o 11,000 50,000 144 75 52.1 0.1 90 600 540 90.0 1.1 197 83.3 Papua New Guf.nea 29,000 140,000 1,293 316 24.4 0.2 99 2,020 1,520 75.2 I.I 293 69.3 Nepal 18,250 00,000 229 177 77.3 0.2 52 1,250 1,245 99.6 1.6 322 64.0 Central African Republic 2,000 9,000 70 60 85.7 0.7 19 144 128 88.9 1.4 43 62.5 (hyana 8,000 42,000 500 5 1.0 2 1,050 950 90.S 2.3 230 40.0 I w Burma 30,000 160,000 1,340 770 57.5 o.s 179 4,320 3,~ 90.3 2.4 750 37.0 N Madagascar 7,800 44,000 482 118 24.S 0.3 45 1,200 990 82.S 2.2 240 36.7 I Gabon 18,000 80,000 578 438 75.8 0.5 137 2,400 2,300 95.8 2.9 800 33.3 Afghanistan 25,000 100,000 731 550 75.2 0.5 260 3,040 2,700 88.8 2.7 878 32.9 M'.>zambiqte 15,000 72,000 000 400 50.0 0.6 2,258 2,200 2,100 95.5 2.9 4,050 32.7 Ethiopia 12,000 60,000 515 436 84.7 0.7 216 1,900 1,700 89.5 2.8 523 31.6 Angola 23,000 100,000 1,000 1,000 55.6 1.0 553 3,300 3,000 90.9 3.0 1,900 30.3 I.esoth:> 450 2,000 43 66 60 90.9 3.0 50 30.3 Guinea 5,000 30,000 700 95 13.6 0.3 40 1,330 1,250 94.0 4.2 295 22.6 lbrundi 800 4,000 48 3 6.3 0.1 1 203 200 98.5 5.0 50 19.7 Mali 2,000 10,000 135 37 27.4 0.4 6 570 545 95.6 5.4 136 17.5 Bolivia 18,000 90,000 1,553 1,065 68.6 1.2 287 5,141 4,038 78.5 4.5 831 17.5 Caneroon 23,000 100,000 1,500 1,370 91.3 1.4 263 5,880 5,700 98.3 5.8 1,040 17.0 Taw.ania 9,500 40,000 1,058 869 82.1 2.2 243 2,450 1,840 75.1 4.6 473 16.3 Sierra Ieone 1,300 6,000 230 IO 4.3 0.1 2 450 370 82.2 5.4 72 15.1 Peru Sub Total 60,000 479,100 390,000 2,325,000 9,805 27,988 6,868 18,938 70.0 67.7 o:s 1.8 1,863 7,840 27,115 73,047 22,295 63,804 82.2 87.3 ~ 5.7 4,176 20,421 ~ 31.8roi t>l ,_. :,.:: H 0 <: y Refers to in:ligenrus or national hydro, including share of international sites. H, -I>- HYIRO IDTENl'IAL AND -d Sub Total 579,406 2,962,184 359,237 96,972 27.0 3.3 28,862 780,413 317,823 40.7 10.7 88,536 ~• ro i t:r:l :,,: N H 0~ H) .i,.. HYffiO IO'l'mrIAL AND a:MPARATIVE 1980 AND 1995 HYIRO IBE FOR 100 DhVEUJ.>00 (l)UNI'RIES (S'.>rte:l by Potential/1995 Market) 1980 1995 Annual Teclnical Total Use of Total Use of Ratio of Hydro Fnergy Hydro Hydro Hydro Installed Fnergy Hydro Hydro Hydro Installed Potential Potential Require:l Output Share Potential Hydro Required Output Share Potential Hydro to 1995 Cruntry M-1 Git rnti Glh % % m Glh Git % % m l'brket .Argentina 46,000 200,000 39,580 15,200 38.4 7.6 4,533 82,250 44,400 54.0 22.2 11,813 2.4 Malaysia 25,800 101,000 9,888 1,268 12.8 1.3 642 41,997 15,288 36.4 15.1 3,204 2.4 Brazil 213,140 933,553 132,866 119,874 90.2 12.8 27,267 438,823 385,480 87.8 41.3 82,798 2.1 Niger 235 1,330 230 106 46.1 8.0 630 230 36.5 17.3 75 2.1 Iooomsia 32,000 160,000 10,460 2,500 23.9 1.6 748 80,910 23,000 28.4 14.4 6,700 2.0 Senegal 500 2,500 635 1,310 1,250 95.4 50.0 300 1.9 Thailanl 20,148 90,432 15,511 1,656 10.7 1.8 1,270 52,191 8,511 16.3 9.4 3,508 1.7 Ivory rttrl by Potential/1995 Market) 1900 1995 Annual Teclnical Total Use of Total Use of Ratio of Hydro F.nergy Hydro Hydro Hydro Installed F.nergy Hydro Hydro Hydro Installed Potential Potential Required Output Share Potential Hydro Required Output Share Potential Hydro to 1995 Coon.try M-l rocco 2,453 4,045 4,761 1,515 31.8 37.5 613 17,340 4,045 23.3 100.0 2,453 0.2 Mauritius 65 115 408 83 20.3 72.2 23 8~ 115 12.9 100.0 65 0.1 I Janaica \ 100 470 2,400 108 4.5 23.0 20 3,740 450 12.0 95.7 96 0.1 ~ Seychelles 4 20 51 212 5 2.4 25.0 1 0.1 I Korea (Republic Of) 2,000 3,500 37,239 1,467 3.9 41.9 757 123,700 3,200 2.6 91.4 1,760 Algeria 287 284 5,909 2S4 4.8 100.0 287 27,156 284 1.0 100.0 '287 Joman 22 60 1,072 6,018 'I\nisia 65 100 2,603 46 1.8 46.0 29 10,984 100 0.9 100.0 65 Botswana 1 5 423 1,775 C.a~ Verde 8 25 The Gambia 40 130 Mauritania 100 200 Qjibruti 115 480 Barba:los 340 940 Yaoon P.D.R. 176 1,050 Yaoon A.R. 166 2,470 Cyprus 1,022 3,394 - Sub Total 70,889 233,275 288,460 91,547 31.7 39.2 23,364 008,545 154,772 19.1 66.3 50,864 Total 1,676,803 7,802,259 1.~.698 437,779 40.l 5.6 115,487 3,003,938 1,277,833 42.5 16.4 339,047 ~§ >< ;'.'l 1995 81 295 376 20 80 80 1,250 1,330 3.7 94 "' "' Guinea-Bissau 1980 1985 1990 8 16 20 30 8 16 50 8 15 3 30 60 10 30 60 10 110 30 60 120 15.0 15.0 15.0 0 0 92 ... "' . 1995 20 30 50 5 20 20 160 180 10,0 89 ELECTRICITY SUPPLY FOREGAS'fS FOR 100 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Installed Capac! ty - 11W Annual Oil Gross Production (includinB: net 1mfort)t i.e .. Demand - GWh 5-year Aver age (National Sources) Requirement Thermal Growth Rate to Percent Re111on/Countrz .!!!!. ~ Hydro ~ l y Uganda exported an additional 289 GWh to leoya in 1980, 11 Zambia exported a total of 2bl80 GWh to Zi•babwe sod Zaire tn 1980. ---11 ELECTRICITY SUPPLY FORECASTS FOR 100 DEV!llllPlNG COtmTRIES S-Year Jnatalled Capacity - MW Annual OJ.l Gross Production (including net 1uteort) 1 i.e. Demand 1 CMh Average Growth (National Sources) llequireaent 'J.'heraal Rate to Percent hgton/Cou°:t~J !!!!. ~ Geotherul ~ iiydro ~ ktoe .Q!!. !!!!. Coal70ther ~ Geotherc:aal ~ Hydro .!2!!!. Year - % Hydrn !!AST ASU AND PACIFIC' Chin• 1980 4S,SSI 20,318 65,869 12,500 50,000 1,000 191,416 242,416 58,211 300,627 5.0 19 1985 55,061 25,788 80,849 11,000 44,000 1,000 259,000 304,000 80,000 384,000 5.0 21 1990 66,000 40,000 106,000 8,000 32,000 328,000 360,000 130,000 490,000 5.0 27 1995 77,000 55,000 132,000 3,000 12,000 430,000 442,000 183,000 625,000 s.o 29 Fiji 1980 160 160 70 280 20 300 300 8.5 1985 90 JOO 190 5 20 25 45 355 400 6.0 89 1990 s, 150 205 5 20 30 50 490 540 6.0 91 1995 20 240 260 10 40 30 70 650 720 6.0 90 lndoneaia 1980 4,800 748 5,548 1,990 7,960 7,960 2,500 10,460 11.a 24 1965 5,760 30 1,600 7,390 2,945 11,780 4,800 16,580 200 5,600 22,380 16.4 25 1990 10,060 600 3,500 14,160 2,380 9,520 20,500 30,020 3,600 12,000 45,620 15.3 26 1995 14,020 1,000 6,700 21,720 3,478 13,910 38,000 51,910 6,000 23,000 80,910 12.1 28 ¥a11puchea 1980 22 18 40 13 50 50 50 100 50 1985 37 18 55 24 95 95 50 145 7 .1 34 1990 30 39 69 8 30 30 170 200 6.6 85 1995 15 139 154 270 270 6.2 100 KorH (lep, of) 1980 7,647 595 157 .!J 8,999 6,927 27,706 2,468 30,174 3,479 3,586 37,239 13.3 10 1985 11,495 3,880 1,200 16,5H 3,078 12,310 3,700 14,llO 30,120 22,000 3,880 56,000 8.5 7 1990 12,320 7,870 1,760 21,950 2,605 10,410 3,700 20,200 34,320 45,000 4,080 83.400 6 .. 3 1995 16,870 11,100 1,760 .!/ 29,730 1,705 6.820 7,300 42,500 56,620 63,000 4,080 123:100 8.2 Lth>II 1980 10 130 140 126 3/ 126 3,2 100 ,,. )985 10 170 180 146 3/ 146 3.0 JOO "' I 1990 10 170 180 251 3/ 251 11,4 100 1995 10 170 180 408 JJ 408 10.2 100 Halay1ia 1980 2,053 642 2,695 2,068 8,271 349 8,620 1,268 9,888 11.7 13 1985 3,688 1,369 5,057 2,155 8,619 3,040 11,659 5,083 16,742 11,1 30 1990 5,128 1,650 6,778 2,495 9,981 7,980 3,850 21,811 5,838 27,649 10.6 21 1995 6;628 3,204 9,832 1,286 5,142 14,011 7,550 26,709 15,288 41,997 8.7 36 Papua New Guinea 1980 230 99 329 244 917 971 316 1,293 3.0 24 1985 294 133 427 200 800 100 900 600 1,500 3.0 40 1990 334 133 467 200 800 300 1,100 640 1,740 3.0 37 1995 334 293 627 50 200 300 500 1,520 2,020 3.0 15 Philippine• 1980 3.520 443 940 4,903 3,217 12,869 61 12,930 2,120 3,950 19,000 8.6 21 1985 4,066 891 620 2,195 7,774 2,083 8,333 2,000 10,333 5,437 3,500 6,400 25,670 6.2 25 1990 4,778 1,845 620 2,660 9,903 1,360 5,440 7,785 13,225 11,260 3,500 9,035 37,020 7,6 24 1995 5,578 3,000 1,240 3,865 13,683 793 3,170 10,100 13,270 17,700 7,000 15,430 53,400 7 .6 29 ThallAnd 1980 2,601 1,270 3,871 2,863 11,453 284 1,365 13,102 2,409 2/ l5,5ll 11.8 16 1985 5,661 1,971 7,632 692 2,768 12,500 3,750 19,018 5,809 2/ 24,827 9.9 23 1990 7,311 3,008 10,319 1,035 4,140 15,615 9,380 29,135 8,076 2/ 37,211 8.4 22 1995 8,651 3,508 12,159 884 3,536 20,000 20,144 43,680 a,m I! 52,191 7.0 16 Vietnaa 1980 1,080 330 1,410 775 3,100 3,100 1,300 4,400 15.4 30 1985 1,830 1,800 3,630 1,300 5,200 1,800 7,000 5,000 12,000 22.2 42 1990 1995 3,500 s,100 2,800 4,500 6,300 9,800 2,200 ...!,ill. ~ 8,800 8,700 20,000 17,500 26,500 7,500 12,000 25,000 38,500 15.8 9.0 30 31 !11 ~~ Subtotal 1980 67,674 443 595 25,252 9),964 30,667 122,666 1,6)3 195,330' 319,629 2,120 3,479 73,716 )98,944 6. 7 18 "' 1985 87,994 921 4,500 36,344 129,759 23,482 93,925 20,)40 285,485 399,750 5,637 25,500 112,923 543,810 6.4 21 . " 1990 1995 109,526 134,426 2,445 4,000 8,490 12,340 SS,810 79,379 176,331 230,145 20,288 12,831 81,151 51,318 27,595 41,617 398,445 568,324 507,191 661,259 14,860 23,700 48,500 70,000 178,080 264,157 748,631 1,019,116 6.6 6.4 24 'fl 26 . lJ !xc.lud.ea puap vto.i:age.. y Include• 111ported hydro energy. 11 Exclude• e.xports to Thatland. ELECTRICITY SUPPLY FORECA:i1'S FOR 100 lllWELOPING CffJNTRlES 5-Year Installed Capacity - MW Annual OU Gl:oa• Prod..ict1Qn (1ncl~dtng net 1111eort)1 i.e. Demaad 1 GWh Average Growth (National Sources) Bequire•ent Therlllal Rate to Percent legion/Country ~ ~ Geother.aI ~ By 270 1,450 8.8 19 1985 394 558 952 50 200 200 2,010 2,210 8.8 91 1990 409 15 998 1,422 44 175 25 200 75 3,620 3,895 12.0 93 199S 409 IS 1,558 1,982 38 150 165 315 75 6,474 6,864 12.0 94 G.r.yana 1980 170 2 172 113 450 45 495 5 500 4.0 1 1985 200 2 202 146 585 50 635 5 640 5.0 1 1990 160 230 390 10 40 60 100 720 820 5.0 86 1995 160 230 390 10 40 60 100 950 1,050 5.0 90 Hsiti 1980 91 44 135 15 58 58 241 299 14,6 81 1985 114 59 173 50 200 200 300 500 10.6 60 1990 186 132 316 56 230 230 600 830 10,8 72 1995 150 152 302 60 240 200 440 760 1,200 8.0 63 Bondura• 1980 91 122 213 59 234 234 656 890 11.7 74 1985 146 462 608 22 86 86 1,476 1,562 11.9 94 1990 146 672 818 22 86 86 2,383 2,469 9,6 97 1995 206 772 978 124 497 0 0 497 0 0 3,379 3,876 9,4 87 Jautca 1980 685 20 705 558 2,232 60 2,292 106 2,400 1,5 4 1985 740 20 760 648 2,590 80 2,670 110 2780 3.0 4 1990 720 41 761 722 2,890 100 2,990 230 3,220 3.0 1 1995 800 96 896 648 2,590 700 3,290 450 3,740 3.0 12 Hexlco 1960 11,120 150 6,491 17,761 8,030 32,120 5,880 36,000 1,000 25,000 64,000 8,4 39 1985 15,666 290 1,308 8,626 25,890 7,393 19,570 11,243 7,500 48,lll 1,920 6,302 33,225 89,760 9.0 37 1990 22,146 510 1,308 11, IIJ 35,077 11,897 47,589 62,088 18,000 86,469 3,365 6,302 41,974 138,110 9,0 30 ~ 1995 31,182 730 3,108 12,987 48,007 11,531 46,123 51,180 37 ,84' 135,146 4,810 14,974 48,000 202,930 8.0 24 "' Nicaragua 1980 263 103 366 144 575 16 591 470 1,061 2.7 44 1985 263 105 151 519 93 373 373 720 650 1,743 10.4 37 1990 263 21S 359 837 45 178 178 1,552 1,148 2,878 10,6 40 199S 263 325 609 1,197 40 158 16 174 2,384 2,243 4,801 10.8 47 Pana•• 1980 456 297 7SJ 273 1,091 1,091 1,393 2,484 4,4 56 1985 484 597 1,081 !03 414 414 2,714 J,128 4.7 87 1990 453 897 1,350 82 327 327 3,684 4,011 5.1 92 1995 433 1,274 1,707 80 321 321 4,993 5,314 5.8 94 Paraguay 1980 78 194 272 5 19 19 681 700 11,1 97 198S 78 317 395 3 12 12 1,388 1,400 14.9 99 1990 78 579 657 3 12 12 2,538 2,550 12,7 100 1995 78 1,023 1,101 3 12 12 4,482 4,494 12.0 100 Peru 1980 1,253 1,663 3,116 684 2,737 200 2,937 6,868 9.aos 5,5 70 1985 1,361 2,217 3,578 371 1,483 soo 1,983 13,132 15,115 9.0 87 1990 1,711 J,IOJ 4,814 619 2,474 1!000 3,414 17,595 21,069 6.9 84 1995 2,017 4,176 6,193 830 3,320 1,500 4,820 22,295 27,115 5.2 82 Suriname 1980 206 189 395 184 735 735 937 1,672 0,9 56 1985 226 189 41 S 170 680 660 1.000 1,660 0.1 60 1990 226 189 415 197 788 788 1,000 I, 788 1,3 56 1995 226 217 443 202 809 809 1,123 1,932 1,6 58 . lkuguay 1980 423 396 819 370 1,480 120 1,600 1,900 3,500 5. 7 54 1985 1990 1995 ~ 508 568 806 1,076 1,603 l,314 1,644 _h!L!.. ~ 200 308 ~ 800 1,230 380 689 ---1Q! 1,180 1,919 -1,_fil 3,500 4,351 ~ 4,680 6,270 ~ 6.0 6.0 6.0 75 69 71 ii§" "'.,, ~ ... ."'. Subtotal 1980 31,290 210 357 47,375 79,232 18,810 75,239 17,882 8,769 101,890 1,370 2,340 200,825 306,425 9,2) 66 1985 38,680 490 2,924 71,952 114,046 15,020 60,077 23,091 22,302 105,470 3,220 15,158 105,629 429,617 7.0)7.6 11 1990 47,676 930 8,654 104,056 161,316 17,880 71,524 37,600 45,384 154,508 6,175 42,341 448,624 651,654 8.7) 69 1995 60,805 1,355 12,359 142,887 217,406 17,675 70,698 64,718 81,410 216,935 9,055 60,259 630,170 916,319 7 .I) 69 : ELECTRICITY SUPPLY FORECASTS FOR 100 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES S-Year lnatalled capacity - KW Annual Oil Gco11a Pcoductt.on ~lncluding net l!fo~t} 1 l.e.. De.aand 1 Qlh Ave.rage Growth. {National Sources) Requireaent Thermal Rate to Pei-cent legion/Country .!!!!. 11!!!!!! ~ Hydro !!!!.!! ktoe .fil E!!.. Coal]Othe~ Subtotal ~ Hydro ~ ~ Hydro SOUTH ASIA Banglad.eab 1980 5]4 80 614 147 588 1,130 1,718 600 2,]18 ll.4 26 1985 1,293 130 1,423 155 620 ],090 3,710 800 4,510 14.2 18 1990 2,118 230 2,348 242 970 5,980 6,950 1,000 7,950 12.0 I] ..... 1995 1980 198S 1990 3,640 457 547 S47 2]0 179 266 4SO 3,870 636 813 997 ]75 17 103 84 1,.500 308 413 3H 11,300 262 39S 243 12,800 570 808 S78 1,200 770 1,171 2,348 14,000 1,340 1,979 2,926 11.9 8.s 8.1 8.1 57 S9 80 8 1995 547 750 1,297 so 200 220 420 3,900 4,320 8.1 90 India 1980 20,353 860 11,794 ]3,007 soo 2,000 900 56,000 58,900 S,000 47,000 110,900 10.0 42 1985 26,8]] 1,330 14,211 42,374 soo 2,000 4,000 83,600 89,600 7,600 57,300 154,SOO 6.9 37 1990 34,73] 2,020 20,229 56,982 500 2,000 4,000 120,800 126,800 11,500 81,500 219,800 7.3 37 1995 40,700 4,200 35,000 79,900 500 2,000 4,000 150,200 156,200 23,900 126,500 306,600 6.9 41 Nepal 1980 15 S2 67 5 18 18 211 229 9.0 92 198S H 125 150 8 30 30 430 460 15.0 9] 1990 14 224 238 4 IS 15 805 !20 12.3 98 :; l!)Sj 10 322 ]32 I s s 1,245 l,2SO 8.8 99 P•kUtan 1980 1,648 137 1,800 ],585 25 100 5,500 100 5,700 500 8, soo 14,700 7.8 58 1985 2,233 137 · 3,200 S,S70 25 100 8,400 100 8,600 500 12,500 21,600 8.o 58 1990 4,17] 137 3,200 7,510 25 100 13, soo ],600 17,200 700 l],800 31,700 8.0 44 1995 5,561 7]7 6,260 l2,SS8 13,700 • 5,000 18,700 3,000 2S,OOO 46,700 8.0 54 Sri Lanka 1980 86 313 399 47 189 189 1,479 1,668 7.3 89 1985 2S6 623 879 202 810 810 2,500 3,310 14,7 7S 1990 376 927 1,303 182 730 730 1,460 3,650 S,110 9.1 71 1995 ......lli. .....!.,,lli. _!,ill ...ill. __lli. ..!,.lli_ ~ -2.,!!.Q. 1 1 e20 8.9 69 Tot•l J980 23,093 997 14,218 38,308 801 ],203 7,792 56,100 67,095 5,500 58,'560 lll,155 9,8 45 19U ll,187 1,467 18,555 51,209 993 3,973 15,885 83,700 103,558 8,100 74,701 186,]59 7 ,] 40 ... 1990 41,961 2,1 S7 25,260 69,]78 1,037 4,ISO 23,723 125,130 153,003 12,200 103,10] 268,306 7.6 38 1995 51,014 4,937 43,749 99,700 1,1]6 4,545 29,220 156,770 190,535 26,900 163,ZSS 380,690 7 .2 4] 111 Annual 011 Gross Productton t.e. Deiaand -C.'\lh ;:3 lnatdled Cafactty - MW bquirelllll!lnt 'nlerul Annual .., !!!!:. ~ Geotheru ~ Hydro Total ktoe .fil E!!.. ~ ~ Geothermal ~ Hzdro ~ ~ • " Total for 100 Countriea 1980 1985 159,781 211,296 653 1,06 1,949 9,561 115,487 166,099 277,870 388,412 61,903 54,013 247,743 216,053 68,654 116,367 314,993 496,69) 631,190 829,113 3,490 9,157 11,119 51,578 444,599 62),710 1,090,698 1,515,556 9.0) 6.8) = 1990 273,118 3,450 21,]71 242, 72S 540,664 54,068 216,236 165,240 746,728 l, 128.204 21,535 113,867 909,667 2,173,476 7.4) 1.0 199S 347,38] S,S30 36,086 339,047 728,046 45,284 185,647 242,819 1,068,128 l,496,!>94 Jl,92S 191,339 1,273,071 3,003,929 6.7) Note: Thh foree .. t c•nnot be eoaap.ared directly with the forecaet for electricity eupply in the 1983 lank paper "The Energy transition to Developing Countrte1· because the latter forecae t include.Iii countrtea auch •• Greece and Hong kon1 with large electricity needs. 1beae countriea we['e not included tn the above 100-country forecasc .. HYDRO PkEPARATION COSTS FOR 1982-1990 FOR 100 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES lMillions of 1982 US$) Review of System General Total llydrolosical Re,;onnaissance Prefeasibility PlanninB InsdtutJonal Feasibility Project PreJnvestment ForeJsn/ Breakdown Re11ion/Countr;i: Data s:r:stems Surve:i:s Studies ~ Stren11thening Studies Engineer in!! Re9uirements ~ Foreign ~ WEST AFRICA Benin 0.3 1.0 10.0 7.5 18.8 80/20 15.0 3.8 Cameroon 0.3 1.0 8.0 24.0 33.3 80/20 26.6 6.7 Cape Verde 0.3 0.3 80/20 0.3 Central African Republtc 0.3 0.5 o.s z.o 2.0 S.3 60/20 4.2 1.1 Chad 0.3 0.4 1.0 I. 7 80/20 1.4 0.3 Congo 0.3 1.5 1.0 3.0 13.5 19.3 80/20 15.4 3.9 Equatorial Guinea 0.3 0.2 0.3 2.0 2.0 4.8 80/20 3.8 1.0 Gabon 0.4 o.s 1.0 1.0 36.5 39.4 60/20 31,5 7,9 Gambia 0,2 0,5 0.7 80/20 0.6 0.1 Ghana 0.3 2,4 0,8 2.0 3.0 12,0 20.5 80/20 16.4 4.1 ~ Guinea 2,0 2,5 31.0 35.5 80/20 28.4 7,1 00 I Guinea-Bissau 0,5 1.0 6.0 7,5 80/20 6.0 1,5 Ivory Coast S,5 o.s 2.0 8,0 24.0 40,0 60/20 32.0 8.0 Liberia 0.3 1,0 2.0 32.0 35.3 80/20 28.2 7,1 Mali 0,3 0.5 2.s 2.0 6.0 . 9.0· 20.3 80/20 16.2 4.1 Mauritania 0.4 0,5 0.9 80/20 0.7 0.2 Niger 0.3 2.0 4.0 12.0 18.3 80/20 14.6 3.7 Nigeria 3.0 18.0 90.0 111.0 80/20 88.8 22.2 Sao Tome & Principe o.s 0.5 1.0 2.0 4.0 80/20 3.2 0.8 Senegal 0,5 0.5 2,0 12.0 14.0 29,0 80/20 23.2 5.8 Sierra Leone 2,0 2.0 80/20 1.6 0.4 Togo 0.3 1.0 4.0 7.5 12,8 80/20 10.2 2.6 Upper Volta 0.3 0.5 4.0 0.6 0.6 4.0 8.0 18.0 80/20 14.4 3,6 TOTAL 4.2 3.7 14,4 5.2 (1.1%) 28.7 89,5 333.0 478, 7 80/20 382.9 95.8 ii . "' (0.8%) (0.8%) (3 .0%) (6.0%) (18.7%) (69.6%) (100%) .... X 0 < .... H, H "' HYDRO PREPARATION COSTS FOR 1982-1990 FOR 100 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (Millions of 1982 US$) Review of Recon- Pre- System General Total Pre- Hydrological nal11sance feasibility Planning Institution Feasibility Project .investment Foreign/ Breakdown Region/Countrt Data srstems Survers Studies Studies Strengtheninl! Studies Ensineerinl! Re9uirements ~ Foreign ~ EAST AFRICA Angola 1,0 0.5 1.0 0.5 5.0 8.0 80/20 6.4 1.6 Botswana 0,5 0.5 1.0 80/20 0,8 0.2 Burundi 0,5 0,5 1.0 0.5 4.5 7.0 80/20 5.6 1.4 Comor o Islands 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.02 0.1 0.4 1.02 80/20 0.81 0.21 Djibouti Ethiopia 0.5 0.4 1.0 2.6 25.0 29.S 80/20 23.6 5.9 Kenya 0.5 0,5 2.0 2.0 10.0 52.0 67.0 80/20 53.6 13 .4 Lesotho 0.2 0.3 1.5 3.0 s.o 80/20 4.0 1.0 Madagascar 0.5 1.5 4.0 ll,O 17.0 80/20 13 .6 3.4 Malawi i.O 1,5 9.0 11.5 80/20 9.2 2.3 Mauritius 0.2 0,3 1,0 1,5 80/20 1.2 0.3 s.- Mozambique 1.0 1.0 2.0 0,5 1,0 4.5 30.0 40.0 80/20 32.0 8.0 "' Rwanda o.s 0.5 1,0 1.0 2.0 6.0 u.o 80/20 8.8 2.2 Seychelles 0.05 0,1 0,3 0.05 0.1 0.4 1.0 80/20 0.8 0.2 Somalia 0.5 o.5 1,5 1.0 3.5 80/20 2.8 0.7 Sudan 1,8 0.5 1.0 4.0 50,0 57.3 80/20 45.8 11.5 Swaziland 1.0 2.0 6.0 9.0 80/20 7.2 1,8 Tanzania 0,4 3.3 0.8 1.0 6,5 30.0 42.0 80/20 33.6 8.4 Uganda 2.0 32.5 34.5 80/20 27.6 6.9 Zaire 1.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 8.0 18.0 80/20 14.4 3.6 Zambia l.O 5.0 3.0 1.0 10.0 80,0 100.0 80/20 80.0 20.0 Zimbabwe .!.:.Q. Q:1 0.5 1.:.!!. .!.:.Q. ~ 50.0 80/20 40.0 10.0 TOTAL l/ 9.4 3.2 21.7 10.2 20.7 52.8 396.8 514.8 80/20 411.8 103.0 ij ff> X (%) (l.8) (0.6) (4.2) (2.0) (4.0) (10.3) (77, l) (100.0) (80.0) (20.0) N <: OH '1>H V, l! Rounded to nearest 0,1 million, HYDRO PREPARATION COSTS FOR 1982-1990 FOR 100 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (Millions of 1982 US$) Review of System General Total Region/ Hydro-.et. Reconnaissance Prefeasibility Planning Institutional Feasibility Project Preinvestment Foreign/ Cost Production Country Szstema Survexs Studies ~ Strengthening Studies Engineerinl! Regutrements ~ Foreign ~ SOUTH ASU Bangladesh 0,5 1.0 0.5 3,0 3.0 20.0 28.0 80/20 22.4 5.6 Burma 0.7 o.a 4,0 1.5 1.0 6,0 18.0 32.0 80/20 25,6 6,4 India 2.0 10.0 200.0 750.0 962,0 3/97 28,9 933.1 Nepal 0.5 0.4 2.4 0,7 1,0 4,5 8,4 17,9 80/20 14.3 3.6 Pakistan 0,5 1,0 4.0 10.0 113,0 128.5 70/30 90.0 38.5 Sri Lanka £:i ~ ....h!l _!.:Q. ~ -1hl. 70/30 ~ --2.:.2. Total 1. 7 2, l 7.4 6.2 20,0 231.5 929.4 1,198.3 17/83 202.l 996,2 (0.1%) (0.2%) (0.6%) (0.5%) (1.7%) (19.3%) (71.6%) (100%) HYDRO Pll.RPARATION COSTS FOR 1982-1990 FOR 100 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (Millions of 1982 US$) ..,. 0 Review of System General Total Hydrological Beconnaissance Prefeastbiltty Planning Institutional Feasibility Project Pr einvea tmen t Foreign/ Breakdown Country_ Data Systems Surveys Studies ~ Strengthen ins Studies Engineering Beguirements Local % Foreil!!! Local EAST ASIA & PACIFIC China i'.o 2,0 25,0 4.0 50,0 1,418.0 1,500,0 5/95 75.0 1,425.0 Fiji 0.5 0.5 3.0 8.0 12,0 80/20 9.6 2,4 Indonesia 0.5 2.0 50,0 5,0 0,5 60,0 245.0 363,0 70/30 254.1 108,9 Kampuchea 0,3 0.3 1.3 1.3 3,0 2,5 8,7 80/20 7.0 1,7 Korea (Rep of) 0.2 0.9 6.0 60.0 67,1 30/70 20,1 47,0 Laos 0,3 1.2 1,5 0.3 1,5 1,0 5,8 80/20 4.6 1.2 Malaysia 0.5 2,4 1.0 3.5 12,0 113.4 132,8 80/20 106.2 26.6 Papua New Guinea 2,0 1.0 6,0 14.0 23,0 80/20 18,4 4.6 Philippines 1.0 1.0 0,4 2,0 12.0 200.0 216,4 70/30 151.5 64.9 Thailand 0.5 2,6 0,5 3.5 9,0 53.8 69.9 60/40 41.9 28.0 Vietna11 -2:!. -2.:..!!. --.i:l -1Q& ~ ____ill.& 70/30 ~ 38.9 Total 6.6 4.8 89.4 18.2 11,3 182,5 2,215.7 2,528.5 31/69 779.3 1,749.2 i§ ..., M 0 ;'; ,..H ..,. HYDRO PREPARATION COSTS FOR 1982-1990 FOlt 100 DEVELOPING COUNTltIES lMillions of 1982 US$) Review of System General Total Hydrological Reconnaiaaaoce Prefeasibility Planning Institutional li'easibility Project Prein-vestment Foreign/ Breakdown Region/Countrl Data Srstell8 Surveis Studies ~ Stren11thenin11 Studies En11ineering Reguirementa Local % Foreizy Local LATIN AMERICA & THE CARlllBBAN Argentina 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.2 12.0 425.0 440.5 20/80 88.1 3!>2,4 Barbados Belize o.3 0.5 0.1 2.0 2.0 1.5 6.4 80/20 5.1 1.3 Bolivia 0.3 1.0 3.0 8.0 19.S 31.8 80/20 25.4 6.4 Brazil o.s 2.0 5.0 74.3 2,016.7 2,098.5 5/95 104.9 1,993.6 Chile 0.3 1.0 4.0 10.0 186.0 201.3 70/30 140.9 60.4 Colombia o.5 6.7 3.5 18.0 416.4 445. l 10/90 44. 5 400,6 Costa Rica 0.3 0.6 0.4 2.5 4.5 128.S 136.8 20/80 27.4 109.4 Dominica 0.5 0.9 0.9 1. 5 1.0 0.3 5.1 80/20 4.1 1.0 Dominican L\public 0.5 1.0 o.5 2.0 6.0 21.0 31.0 80/20 24.8 6.2 Ecuador o.s 2 .. 1 3.5 &.O 70.5 84.6 70/30 59.2 25.4 Ill Salvador 0.3 1.0 7.0 59.6 67.9 70/30 47.S 20.4 Guatemala 0.3 0.5 o.s 6.0 40.0 47.3 70/30 33.1 14.2 .... "' Guyana 0.3 1.0 2.0 21.0 24.3 80/20 19.4 4.9 I Haiti o.s 1.0 10.0 11.5 80/20 9.2 2.3 Honduras o.s 0.3 1.0 4.0 27.0 32.8 80/20 26.2 6.6 Jamaica 0.4 2.0 2.5 u.o 19.9 80/20 15.9 4.0 Medco 0.3 o.s 2.0 0.5 4.0 12.0 257.7 277.0 20/80 55.4 221.6 Nicaragua o.3 0.4 1.0 0.5 2.0 4.5 18.0 26.7 80/20 21.4 5,3 Panama 0.4 1.0 3.0 7.5 42.0 53.9 80/20 43.1 10.8 Paraguay 0.3 l. 5 0.3 2.5 3.0 7.6 70/30 5.3 2.3 Peru 0.5 3.0 5.0 15.0 150.0 173.5 70/30 121.5 52,0 Suriname o.5 0,3 1.0 3.3 2.1 1.2 80/20 5.13- 1,4 Uruguay ~ hl !M M hl .!1.:2. 70/30 hl ~ Total 6.9 3.9 25.1 5.0 52.8 213.6 3,936.9 4,244.2 22/78 937 .7 3,306.5 (0.2%) co.u:i (0.6%) (0.1%) ( 1.2:t) ( 5.0%) (92.8%) (100.0%) fl ":,,i 0 ~ H>H "' HYDRO PREPARATION COSTS FOR 1982-1990 FOR 100 DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES lMilliona of 1982 US$) Review of Recon- Prefeast- System General Total Pre- Region/ Hydrological naissance bility Planning Institutional Feasibility Project investment Foreign/ Cost Breakdown Country Data Systems Surveys Studies ~ StrengtheninS Studies Engineering Reguirements ~ Foreign Local EUROPE 1 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Afghanistan 4.5 71.0 75.5 80/20 60.4 15. I Algeria 2.0 2.0 70/30 1.4 0.6 Cyprus Egypt 4.5 2.5 6.0 24.0 37,0 70/30 25.9 ll.l Jordan l, 5 1. 5 70/30 1.1 0.4 Morocco 2.0 6.0 100.0 108.0 70/30 75.6 32.4 Portugal l. 5 3.0 100.0 104.5 5/95 5.2 99.3 l.n Romania 50.0 225.0 275.0 5/95 13.7 261.3 "' I Syria 2.0 8.0 42.0 52.0 80/20 41.6 10.4 Tunisia 1.0 1,0 80/20 0.8 0.2 Turkey 5.0 5.0 160.0 170.0 80/20 136.0 34.0 Yemen A,R. 2.0 2.0 80/20 1.6 o.4 Yemen. P.D.R. 2,0 2.0 80/20 1.6 o.4 Yugoslavia 22.5 ~ ~ 1/99 _1:.Q. 497.5 TOTAL 4.5 21.5 105.0 1,202.0 1,333 .o 28/72 369.9 963. l (%) (1) (2) (7) (90) . ( 100) (28) (72) fl V, :,.; 0 ,'.:j H>H V, - S3 - ANNEX VIII Page 1 of 7 ?ages A111i1!X VIII DEVELOPMENT OP KYDRO l?OTENTIAL FOR 100 fl!.VELOPING COUIITIUES Ll!VEL OF ADEQUACY .!. Little or Level of Adequacy Country No Potencie.l. Poor Kader ate Ad.equate Co1m.en.ts Afghanistan X Because of the relatively small size of the domestic power market a systematic inventory of the coua.try has aot been conducted. Moat of the known potential is located along the 'oOTder with USSll. Algeria X Total potential of 287 MW hat Meo. fully exploited• Angola X Project.a under coastruction are considered adequate to supply load through year 2000. X The ugnitud.e of the hydro resource is large coapared to use. 'l'be moderate level of developmerit will be complemented by nuclear and gaa and to a lea1er extent by coal. The remaining potential aubje.ct t:o recottna.1.saaa.ce is loeate.d. in ~e.1D()te are.&a .. Bangladesh X The large natural ga• resource coupled with seasonal disparities of rainfall and the importance of water for agriculture has resulted in a moderate level of b.ydro development. No overall aurvey baa been conducted. Barbados X No known hydro reaource. Beliz• X In view of the face that no hydro plants existed in 1980 and that preliainary aaaesaJNDCa of potential are being conducted aa of euly 1982~ the level of adequacy of hydro develo'(Jlll,t!nt 1a c:on- sidered poorJ poaaibly impro•ing to adequate by l99S. Benin X Inventory and ranking of possible sites in progress in early 1982. Bolivia X lbe cow:atry'• hydro reaource 11!1 characterized by a large number of po•aible aitea, but the n.U111ber of site• that could p?'Ovide large atorage 1a Ullited. ~tswana X Mini and aicro bydro potential only, Brazil X Re. .ining hydro potential not yet identified is located in remote areas of the coutry previously judged to be uneconomic to develop. By 1995 about 39% of the known potential Will have been utilized. Burma X 'lhe couu.uy hu a luge hydro Pocential relative to the power market. Maa.1 of the po••ible sites involve large capacity dau, far greater than what the doaeetic urkel reqllires. · Long term expanaion 1a baeed on hydro with therMl-gu for regional supply. Burundi. X Buru.a.d1. hu a large hydro potential relative to ita aull mar- ket. 'l'he power aector ia chuacterized by a large nuaber of iaolat•d syateu. In.eucoa.uectioa. of the•• a'yst.e.u could e•c.ab- li1h a 1uffid.eut market to justify a larger hydro plant. Cameroon X A large portion of power deund ia and will continue to be ·aatia- fied by hydro power, C..pe Verde X Coaaidued co have no hydro potatial. Central African Republic X Hydro reaourcea ar• eltimated to be large with reapect to power d-d. 1.b• powu d..and Will be aatiafied predOllliuntly by hydro through. 199S. The development 1• coaaidered moderate !1:1 that a.o count:y-"Wide ia.vutory of th.e i:eaourca hu been take.n. Chad X Hydro resource• ar• USUIH:d to H remote and costly to develop. Iuduatrial elil requirements of isolated systems. No overall inventory has been prepared. Guyana X While hydro has played a small role in the past 1t is estimated to contribute a great deal in the future. Smaller projects must be developed as ""11 as system interconnection. Haiti X By 1995 it is forecast that Haiti will have utilized virtually all of its known hydro potential. Reconnaissance may produce other sites. Honduras Honduras has a relatively large hydro resource relative to its power demand. Detailed inventories of potential sites have been carried out and ongoing system planning studies will determine the priority order for further feasibility and design of hydro plants. India X India haa a high level of preparation of proje·cts and about 23,000 MW are expected to be added to the existing (1980) ll,79t. MW. The overall hydro potential is about 100,000 MIi, mainly from smaller lites (100-300 MIi), A large part of the remaining poten- tial is in the North and Northeastern regions. Given the large gap between the country's potential and the 35,000 MIi of hydro in 011eration or planned there would appear to be further scope for acceleration. Indonesia X The total hydro resource is relatively large compared to the projected 1995 demand. Rowever, development is lik.ely to be inhibited by geographic distribution of resource and demand and a relatively weak technical data base. An accelerated hydro pro- gram will require a concentrated manpower effort since individual site sizes are small, thus dictating many sites under development simultaneously, Ivory Coast X With an accelerated hydro program, Ivory Coast has the capability to realistically generate about 95% of its required electricity with hydro through 1995. Jamaica Jamaica has a relatively small hydro potential, most of which will probably be exploited by 1995. .Jordan X Jordan has relatively little hydro resource that could be readily developed. About 2 MW could be developed at the King Talal Du ( irrigation scheme) and 20 MW at Maqarin. The latter would involve political agreement with Syria and Israel. Kampuchea X Aa of early 1982 the focus for hydro development has been on the large Mek.ong projects with the tributary J)rojects receiving little attention. As a result the data base for evaluating these smaller projects is considered poor. The potential of the country is large with relation to expected 1995 demand and scope exists for accelerated hydro program. Kenya X Kenya's hydro potential is about 6 times the expected 1995 total electricity demand. Further reconnaissance is needed to develop an inventory of possible sites for implementation after 1995. Prior to 1995 a program of hydro and geothermal additions is planned. Korea (Republic of) X Korea is expected to have utilized most of its relatively small hydro resource by the end of the century. Laoa X Laoa already has in place hydro generating plants far in excess of its current and projected needs, exporting a large percentage of its power to Thailand. Additional capacity will be added for the domestic market and the large potential of the Mekong can be devloped jointly with Thailand if required, Lesotho X The level of adequacy is considered moderate owing to the size of the Highland Water Scheme to be developed by South Africa. Lesotho's share, about SO MW, will be sufficient to provide virtually all electrical demand through the end of the century, Upgrading of data gathering systems is required to provide the basis for future work in developing the domestic resource. Annex VIll - 56 - Page 4 of 7 Pages Uttle or Level of Adequacy Country No Potential Poor Moderate Adequate Comments Liberia X The power market of Liberia is only a fraction of the hydro potential. Frequency conversion ( 60 Hz to SO l!z) is being con- sidered to facilitate introduction of additional hydro and inter- connection with neighboring countries. Due to the seasonality of the river flows, large high cost reservoirs are required. Madagascar X The implementation of the ongoing hydro program will signif- icantly reduce oil consumption for electric power generation. The hydro potendal is large compared to power sector require- ments and even the relatively modest de'lelopment planned will be sufficient for the country for the duration of the century. Malawt X If.a.law! has a well defined hydro program which will provide a significant contribution towarda pow"r sector requirements. Total hydro potential is about 4 ti111es expected 199 5 demand and about 22% will be utilized at that time. Malaysia X Malaysia's total hydro resource is about twice the expected 1995 demand. l!owever, the largest portion of the resource (approxi- mately 85%) is in Sarawak and Sabah regions, away from the large load center of Peninsular Malaysia. In the short term the devel- opment of Peninsular Malaysia's resou,:ces is expected to continue. Long tet'lll development will focus on the development of the Sarawak hydro resources which are already considered marginally economic. Mali X Mall has a significant hydro potential but its limited and scat- tered power market has slowed hydro development. An overall water resources survey is required in addition to the implementa- tion of those projects which have been identified. Mauritania X No national hydro resource. Mauritius X Mauritius has a relatively small hydro resource (65 MW) with only about 4 MW undeveloped. Reconnaissance may be auccesaful in locating additional amounts. Mexi.:o X It is estimated that about half of Mexico's hydro potential wil 1 hav<,been developed hy 1995 as part- of an expansion .progr11111 that will include oil, coal, gas, nuclear and geothet'lllal. Morocco X Hydro projects are for the moat part combined irrigation pro- jects. By 1995 virtually all of the hydro potential 1s expected to have been utilized. Mozambique X Mozaabique has a large hydro resource compared to ita domestic power requirement. By 1995 an estimated 27% of the potential will have been developed of which about 89% will be for export to South Africa. No further thermal oil expansion is anticipated. Nepal X Development of Nepal's massive hydro potential (relative to ita domestic market) will depend upon agreemeats to be reached with India regarding eXt>Ort of hydro power. Failing such agreement, relatively little of the potential will be realized. Additional reconnaissance is also a requirement since only one basin has been surveyed systematically (Gandak). Nicaragua X The expansion prograa for Nicaragua is expected to be dominated hy hydro and geothermal developments. A national inventory of sites was prepared in 1980 which listed 27 technically feasible sites. Owing to flac topographical feuures hydro developments are considered expensive. Further t'etounaisaan.ce of sites ia rec01111ended co develop other alternatives. Niger X Moat of Niger is desert, accounting for its relatively small hydro potential. Aa of early 1982 theu were no existing hydro plants; however three sites have been studied at the prefeaai- bility level, one of which haa been carried through to the design level. Niger imports power from Nigeria under a long-ter-. contract. As this energy becomes more valuable to Nigeria there will be an incentive for Niger to develop its hydro resources. Nigeria X With Nigeria •s large power market, 11:: ts expected that by 199 5 total electricity demands will have exceeded total hydro poten- tial. Nigeria haa large volumes of gas which will continue to be the important fuel for electricity production, Hydro's role wil 1 be to complement gas-fired thet'lllal. Pakistan X The preparation of hydro projects has lagged behind the needa of the power urket. In the past, electricity supply ha8 been supply constrained due to project delays. In practice hydro feasibility studies were made only when required. This situation 1a expected to improve as the result of a consultant's review and ranking of hydro inventory. l!ydro is ~xpected ·to provide about one-half of the electricity supply through 199S with gas and coal/lignite providing the remainder. Panama X Panama's hydro potential is about three times the expected 19'15 electrical demand. Virtually all generation will be hydro after 1985 except for autoproducers and isolated system requirements. Annex VIII Page 5 of 7 Pages - 57 - Little or Level of Adequacy Country No Potential Poor Modera1:e Adeauate Comments Papua New Guinea X Papua New Guinea has a large hydro potential but its use is limited by a small power 1DSrket and lack of storage so that thermal backup is usually required. It is anticipated that both hydro and gas will be developed to reduce the overall dependence on oil. Paraguay X Paraguay's hydro potential is large compared with its domestic market requirements. About 90% of the total potential represents Paraguay's share of large binational projects with Brazil and Argentina. Peru X Despite a large hydro potential the country has been slow to develop hydro on a major scale. An inventory of hydro sites was done in 1979 and is expected to form the foundation for a much accelerated hydro program, so future plans are adequate. Philippines X The planned role of hydro energy in electricity generation expan- sion to 1995 1s significant. The resource is distributed throughout the various islands and there is disparity between load and resource, The proposed expansion plan will utilize about 45% of the potential by 1995. Portugal X As of early 1982 Portugal has already utilized about 55% of its hydro potential and by 1990 an estfmsted 80% will have been utilized. Most of the hydro sites are run of the river and do not lend themselves to storage. Consequently thermal backup is important with coal being the predominant form anticipated for future expansion. Romania X As of early 1982 about 50% of the country's hydro .potential has been developed. The remaining potential is expected to be developed by 2000. Additional generation will be provided by coal/lignite and nuclear. Rwanda X Rwanda has sufficient hydro potential co satisfy its power needs well into the next century. Due to the small market size and coat of the projects, local hydro has been slow to be imple- mented. Imported hydro power from Zaire accounts for about half of Rwanda's hydro energy utilization. · Sao To... and Principe X As of early 1982 the level of adequacy of development is poor, despite an estimated potential about 4 times the total electri- city demand forecast for 1995. A strea11 flow gauging system is soon Co be installed and will provide much needed information so that reconnaissance and ranking of sites may begin. Senegal X As of early 1982 Senegal has no existing hydro plants deapi t e having a potential of about twice the expected 1995 power sector demand. Hydro costs are high and transmission distances great. An inventory of prospective sites has been prepared and the most attractive are ready for feasibility •tudy. In addition Senegal haa access to international projects with Guinea and Mali. Seychelles X Seychelles is estimated to have a hydro potential of only about 4 MIi representing a number of mini and micro hydro possibilities. As of early 1982, there were no existing installations and :recon- naissance and ranking of sites was required. Sierra teone X Sierra teone has a large hydro potential relative to its power market. As of early 1982, engineering was beginning on the 120 MIi llumbuna project which will provide generation requirements through 1995. In the long term additional feasibility and pre- feasibility studies will be required. Somalia X Somalia has a relatively small hydro potential which is eatimated to be expensive to develop. By 1990, about 74% of the known potential will be developed through the implementation of t,.., projects. Additional reconnaissance and prefeasibility studies are :required. Sd Lanka X Hydro development in Sri Lanka has in recent years (1978-1982) been accelerated. By 1995 about 82% of the estimated total potential will have been utilized. Coal-fired thermal will be developed as well in the future. Further reconnaissance of hydro sites followed by prefeasibility studies are indicated in order to maximize the hydro resource. Sudan X Oil use for electricity is expected to double by 1990 unless the hydro prograa is accelerated. The potential is considerably larger than the foreseeable power market but due to low loads and long transmission distances, the cost of developing this potential is high. Additional feasibility studies are required to identify additional s:.tes so that hydro projecta may be realistically compared with future thermal alternatives. Suriname X Suriname has a large hydro potential relative to its market size. Little work has been carried out in developing of sites le88 than 180 MW with the emphasis being on the supply of pos- sible future industrial loads. A prerequisite to hydro accelera- tion will be a reconnaissance and inventory of smaller domestic sites, under consideration as of early 1982. - 58 - ANNEX VIII Page 6 of 7 Pages Little or Level of Adequacy Country No Potential Poor Moderate Adequate Comments Swaziland X Swaziland has a large hydro potential relative to its market requirements. The country has historically relied on imported power from South Africa along with smaller amounts of hydro and thermal oil plants, The foundation for an accelerated hydro program has been laid with the Energy Master Plan now (1982) being prepared. Syria X It is expected that most of Syria's hydro potential will have been exploited by the end of the century, The remainder of the generation requirements Will be from oil and gas-fired thermal plants, depending upon the availability of domestic oil and gas, Tanzania X Tanzania has a large hydro potential compared to its relatively small power market. Timely hydro development combined with the use of local gas and coal and transl!lission extensions will greatly assist the country in reducing the use of oil for electricity production. Thailand X 'n\ailand has a relatively large hydro potential, about twice its 1995 power requirement, About 81% of the total potential is based on projects that would be developed on international borders with Burma, Laos and Kampuchea. Most of the undeveloped domestic sites have been investigated and will probably be developed by 1995. Togo X Aa of early 1982 the country-wide inventory of potential hydro sites was being prepared. This will enable an acceleration of hydro development. The estimated potential 1s not large, being approximately equal to the 1995 power demand. A regional inter- connection study ia underway. Tuni-sia X Tunisia 'a hydro potential of 65 MW is fully utilized, with 29 !llol existing and 36 MW under construction as of early 1982. Turkey X Turkey has sufficient hydro and lignite potential to meet fore- cast electric power demands until the end of this century: The power subsector has been characterized by adl!linistrative problems, shortages of trained personnel, and long delays in project completion. n.e government's goal is to develop hydro and lignite potentials as fully as possible. Despite the afore- mentioned problems this development is proceeding. Uganda X Uganda has a large hydro potential which as of early 1982 has been only about 13% exploited, Load growth for the coiling year• is difficult to predict owing to the civil unrest that occurred between 1972 and 1979 and its effect upon the economy. /my sustained increase in growth of more than 4% prior to 1990 will nece88itate the purchase of thermal oil generation, given the long lead time for hydro construction. Exploration of export possibilities would assist in defining a market to justify larger and more econol!lic hydro ·units, Upper Volta X The electric power requirements of Upper Volta will exceed the total hydro potential of Upper Volta by the year 2000, A first hydro project, Kompienga, is under consideration. A number of sites have been given preliiainary consideration and cost estimates are high owing to small size and long transl!lission distances. Participation of Upper Volta in the development of Mali and Niger• s border projects should be considered as well as further reconnaissance and prefeasibility of domestic sites. Uruguay X In recent years a great deal of hydro development has been initi- ated and by 1995 about 79% of the hydro potential will have been utilized. Due to the erratic hydrology of the two principal rivers future plans also include the investigation of intercon- nections and the relatively l!linor hydro potential remaining. 'lietnara X Based on the lillited available information as of early 1982, Vietnam' a hydro projects for implementation are in a poor state of preparedness, Moat of the identified projects have only been exallined at the reconnaissance level; consequently 11refeasibility studies are required initially. The total potential is about 13 times the 1980 level. ExisUng hydro provides about 30% of the total electricity demand. Yemen A. R. X There ia no known hydro potential. Yemen P. D. R. X There is no known hydro potential. Yugoslavia X The future power needs will be met by hydro and lignite thermal plants. The first nuclear plant is expected in the mid-1980's. Of the total hydro potential of 17,000 MW, only 11,000 MW is considered suitable for development because the remainder is located in densely populated areas or in small uneeonomic sites. By 1995, most of the remaining hydro potential will have been utilized in addition to the existing (early 1982) 6,000 MW. Annex VU! Page 7 of 7 Pages - 59 - Little or Level of Adequacv Country No Potential Poor Moderate Adequate Comments Zaire X Zaire has a huge hydro potential, estimated to be about 93 times the forecast 1995 power requirement. The country is expected to have a surplus of hydro power through the 1980 • s after the cO!lllllissioniag of the Inga I! project. The acceleration of hydro resource utilization will depend upon the expansion of the interconnected network and the development of regional hydro- power. Zambia X Zambia has sufficient hydro potential to satisfy the domestic power demand well into the next century and the country is already a net exporter of hydroelectric energy. Previous reconnaissance has focused on the Zambezi River and a total countrywide in•entory is recommended. Zimbabwe X Zimbabwe's power needs for the remainder of the century will be supplied by coal-fired plants and its share of the hydro potential of the Zambezi River. The total estimated hydro potential of the country is about equal to the 1995 power demand. Since a national total has not been fully determined, reconnaissance and the establishment of an inventory is recom- mended. ENERGY DEPARTMENT PAPER SERIES EGY PAPER No. 1 Energy Pricing in Developing Countries: A Review of the Literature by DeAnne Julius (World Bank) and Meta Systems (Consultants). September 1981. 121 pages, includes classified bibliography. Reviews literature on the theory of exhaustible resources and on sectoral, national and international models for energy demand. Emphasis on project selection criteria and on pricing policy as a tool of energy demand management. EGY PAPER No. 2 Proceedings of the South-East Asian Workshop on Energy Policy and Management edited by Michael Radnor and Atul Wad (Northwestern University). September 1981. 252 pages. Contains the edited version of the lectures and discussions presented at the South-East Asian Workshop on Energy Policy and Management held in Daedeok, South Korea, October 27-November 1, 1980. Topics that are addressed include: the overall problem of energy policy and its relationship to economic development; the management of energy demand and related data; the role and value of models in energy planning, and the use of energy balances. Transport and rural sectors are also discussed in terms of their relationship to energy planning. EGY PAPER No. 3 Energy Pricing in Developing Countries: Lessons from the Egypt Study by DeAnne Julius (World Bank). December 1981. 14 pages. Study on the effects of energy price change in a developing country. Provides insight into the mechanisms through which energy prices affect other prices in the economy and, therefore, the incomes of rich and poor consumers, profitability of key industries, the balance of payments, and the government budget. EGY PAPER No. 4 Alternative Fuels for Use in Internal Combustion Engines by G.D.C., Inc. (Consultant). November 1981. 179 pages, includes appendices. Presents several alternative fuels used as replacement for conventional (gasoline and diesel) fuels in internal combustion engines. These alternatives, including LPG, natural gas, alcohol and producer gas, are derivable from natural resources that exist in so many developing countries. i.Uso provides up-to-date information on the newest alternative fuel option currently available and those that are being developed and tested. EGY PAPER No. 5 Bangladesh: Rural and Renewable Energy Issues and Prospects by Fernando R. Manibog (World Bank). April 1982. 64 pages, includes bibliography. Analyzes subsector issues and recommends courses of action for energy project possibilities; identifies renewable energy projec:.ts which could create a positive impact in the short to medium term. EGY PAPER No. 6 Energy Efficiency: Optimization of Electric Power Distribution System Losses by Mohan Munasinghe (World Bank) and Walter Scott (Consultant). July 1982. 145 pages, includes appendices. Discusses the reasons for high existing levels of power distribution losses in developing countries. Identifies areas within a power system where loss optimization would be most effective. Shows that reducing losses is often more cost effective than building more generation capacity. EGY PAPER No. 7 Guidelines for the Presentation of Energy Data in Bank Report by Masood Ahmed (World Bank). October 1982. 13 pages (includes 4 Annexes). The growing importance of energy issues in national economic management has led to increased coverage of the energy sector in many types of reports. However, there is still no clear, consistent and standardized format for presenting e11ergy sector information. This paper reviews the problem and proposes guidelines for policymakers and operational staff who deal with energy issues. The paper is divided i11to three parts: part one sets out the basic framework for presenting aggregated energy data -- "the national energy balance"; part two deals with the use of appropriate l.mits and conversion factors to construct such a balance from raw demand and supply data for the various fuels; and part three briefly discusses special problems posed by: (i) differences in end use efficiency of various fuels; (ii) the inclusion of wood and other noncommericaJL energy sources; and (iii) the conversion of primary electricity into its fossil fuel equivalent. EGY PAPER No. 8 External Financing for Energy in the Developin Countries by Althea Duersten World Bank). June 1983. 66 pages, includes appendices. Provides an overview of energy financing in the developing countries. Identifies energy investment requirements and past financing patterns. Discusses the historical roles of multilateral and bilateral assistance programs in helping to mobilize financing, particularly for low income oil importers and in providing economic and sector advice. Examines the role of official export credit, and discusses lending by private financial institutions which has been the predominant source of financing for energy projects in the middle and higher income developing countries. EGY PAPER No. 9 Guideline for Diesel Generating Plant Specification and Bid Evaluation by C. I. Power Services, Inc. (Consultant). December 1982. 210 pages, includes appendices. Explains the characteristics and comparative advantages and disadvantages of large low speed two-stroke diesel engines intended for electric generating plant service, and develops a bid evaluation procedure to permit comparing of bids for both types. EGY PAPER No. 10 Marginal Cost of Natural Gas in Developing Countries: Concepts and Application by Afsaneh Mashayekhi (World Bank). July 1982. 21 pages, includes appendices. Defines the concept of marginal cost and average incremental cost. Uses the detailed supply, demand and investment data to apply this concept to estimate the average incremental cost of natural gas supply to major markets in ten developing countries. Demonstrates that the cost of natural gas delivery to the city-gate in many developing countries is far below the cost of competing fuels. EGY PAPER No. 11 Power System Load Management Techniques by Resource Dynamics Corp. (USA) Consultant. November 1983. 132 pages. In recent years, techniques referred to as load management have begun to play an important role in shaping the patterns of electricity consumption in industrialized countries. Along with pricing, a variety of hardware is used to control loads directly and save on energy and peak capacity. This study reviews the state-of-the-art of these so-called "hard" techniques in light of recent technological advances, provides data on cost and manufacturers of this equipment, and identifies controllable loads in developing countries. EGY PAPER No. 12 LNG Export Opportunities for Developing Countries and the Economic Value of Natural Gas in LNG Exports by Afsaneh Mashayekhi (World Bank). November 1983. 36 pages, includes appendices. This paper reviews the LNG export opportunities for developing countries and clarifies some of the issues related to economic costs and benefits of LNG projects from the point of view of an exporting country. It identifies the major technical parameters that affect costs and analyzes factors affecting the economic size of projects and the effect of scaling them down. Its principal objective is to estimate, given explicit assumptions, the netback values for gas at various stages in the LNG delivery system. It examines three basic scenarios of small and medium scale projects as well as a multi-destination project with several small markets. It also tests the sensitivity of netbacks to the level of infrastructure, discount rates and the price of gas delivered at the importing country. EGY PAPER No. 13 Identifying the Basic Conditions for Economic Generation of Public Electricity from Surplus Bagasse in Sugar Mills by Syner-Tech Inc. (USA). October 1983. 167 pages, includes appendices. The study identifies several ways, all using presently available technology, to greatly increase the overall energy efficiency of existing mills, produce surplus bagasse and generate electricity for sale to the grid. These include installing pre-evaporators to conserve steam, drying wet bagasse with flue gasses to improve combustion efficiency, installing high-pressure boilers to increase steam generation efficiency and pelletizing or compressing bagasse to enable it to be stored and used beyond the harvest season. EGY PAPER No. 14 A Methodology for Regional Assessment of Small Scale Hydropower by Tudor Engineering Company (USA). December 1983. 105 pages. This paper presents a methodology for regional assessment of small hydropower development potential involving sampling procedures, study execution, energy planning, regional hydrology development, technical site evaluation, cost and economic analysis, environmental and social considerations. Its use should result in reasonably accurate estimates in a short period of time of the viable small-scale hydroelectric projects in a particular region or country. A de,1elopment program based on such an assessment would be of sufficient reliability to support requests for financing assistance. EGY PAPER No. 15 Central America Power Interconnection: A Case Study in Integrated Planning English Summary by Fernando Lecaros (Consultant). April 1984. 55 pages. This paper is a summary of the study, titled "Regional Electrical Interconnection Study of the Central American Isthmus", performed by the Regional Office in Mexico of the United Nations' Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA) between 1975 and 1979. Its goal was to provide a firm economic and technical foundation to decisions about the interconnection investments in the region. The purpose of this English Summary is to disseminate the methodology retained by ECLA and to show an example of integrated system planning using models such as WASP developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The figures reproduced in this report are limited to the extent necessary for these illustrative purposes. EGY PAPER No. 16 An Economic Justification for Rural Afforestation: The Case of Ethiopia by Ken Newcombe, World Bank. June 1984. 23 pages, includes appendices. It has proven difficult to quantify the economic benefits of large-scale rural afforestation and to establish the priority for public investment in traditional rural energy supply vis-a-vis investment in the supply for modern fuels (electricity, petroleum) to the urban industrial market. This paper outlines, in simple terms, the biological links between deforestation and agricultural production at the subsistence level, and quantifies the economic benefits of increased food production obtained by replacing animal dung as a fuel with firewood from rural forestry programs. A SURVEY OF THE FUTURE ROLE OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER IN 100 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES August 1984 ANNEX IX Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (Note: This Annex was originally prepared for inclusion in the Energy Department Paper of the same title. The project lists are intended to be indicative of remaining potential; however, they are not necessarily inclusive, and have not been verified for accuracy. Also, subsequent changes in project costs and characteristics have modified the development program ranking in many cases. For these reasons, the Annex was not included in the published Paper but is being made available in this unpublished form.) Power Advisory Unit Energy Department World Bank • Annex IX Page 1 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development l/ Notes Afghanistan Baghedara 280 (d) Kama 45 (d) . Sarkundo 200 (d) Panjshir 120 (f) Amu Daryu Basin 11,250 (p) 17 sites total Kabul Basin 3,000 (p) (shared with USSR) • Various Basins 1,250 (r) Total Identified and Estimated 16,145 of which Design: 1 site 525 Feasibility: 2 sites 120 Prefeasibility: 2 basins 14,250 Reconnaissance: 1,250 Algeria No future develop- ment expected Angola Projects under con- struction consid- ered sufficient to year 2000. Argentina Rio Santa Cruz 600 (d) Puente Ullum 30 (d) Cordon del Plata 1,200 (f) , El Tontal ):':,; 834 (p) · Roncador 3,000 (d) Corpus 3,406 (d) • Piedra del Aguila 1,590 (d) Pichio Picun Leufu 300 (f) Michihuao 600 (f) Condor Cliff 600 (f) Parana Medic Chapeton 2,304 (d) Rio Blanco - C. Negro 1,170 (f) San Pedro 736 (f) Collon Cura 700 (p) La Barrancosa 750 (f) El Tubio 500 (f) 1/ As of early 1982. (d) = Design (f) = Feasibility Study (p) = PrPfeasibi Lity Study (r) = R;:cc:onnaissance Annex IX Page 2 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Argentina (Continued) Los Blancas I 278 (d) Los Blancas II 144 (p) El Baqueano 154 (p) El Tambalor 137 (f) Petrero del Clavillo 120 (d) Zanja del Tigre 463 (f) P. Vacas - Rio Blanco 78 (d) Estimated Five Basins (r) Total Identified and Estimated 19,694 of which Design: 9 sites 11,406 Feasibility: 10 sites 6,456 Prefeasibility: 4 sites 1,832 Reconnaissance: 5 basins Bangladesh Brahmaputra 400 (f) Sangu 4 (f) Mymensinghe Town 40 (f) Teesta N/A (p) Matamuhari River N/A (r) Lungla River N/A (r) Mahasing River N/A (r) Manu River J: N/A (r) Mahanda River N/A (r) Mathabhange River NIA (r) Nabayanga N/A (r) • Total Identified and Estimated 444 of which Design: Feasibility: 3 sites 444 Prefeasibili ty: 1 site Reconnaissance: 7 basins Barbados None Belize Belize River 22 (p) Various (5 basins) N/A (r) Estimated Total Identified and EstimateJ 22 of which Design: Feasibility: Prefeasibility: l site 22 Reconnaissance: 5 basins Annex IX Page 3 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Countrz Site (MW) Of DeveloEment Notes Benin Mono River II 20 (£) Shared with Togo Mono River (3 sites) 58 (£) Shared with Togo . Dyodyonga 13 (f) Shared with Niger Various (7 basins) N/A (p) Estimated Total Identified Sites: 91 (f) Approximately 7 sites: Prefeasi- bility Bolivia Agua Caliente I 90 (d) Palillada llO (£) San Jose 150 (f) Rositas 400 (d) Las Pavas 74 (£) Shared with Argentina Huara 100 (f) Huaji 26 (£) Pachalaca 14 (f) Desecho Chico 18 (p) Canahuecal 500 (p) San Telma 34 (p) Shared with Argentina La Pesca 740 (p) Pena Blanca 520 (p) Seripona 420 (p) Cambari 136 (p) La Higuera 320 (p) Agua Calientes II 181 (d) • Puente Arce 130 (p) Pabellonani so (p) Las Juntas 172 (p) Banda Azul ll4 (p) Siete Lomas 242 (p) Ilumaya 54 (p) Challa 35 (p) Charo 100 (p) Huancane llO (p) Umabamba 38 (p) Tiquimani so (p) Tangara 108 (p) Paichu 204 (p) Imamblaya 81 (p) Santa Rosa 23 (p) Lloja 130 (p) Condor Cdla 75 (p) Arrazayal 83 (p) Tirata 94 (p) Various (18 sites) 4,570 (p) Cost estimates N/A Annex IX Page 4 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Bolivia (Continued) Total Identified and Estimated 10,296 of which Design: 3 sites 671 Feasibility: 6 sites 474 Prefeasibility: 45 sites 9,151 Botswana Negligible, m1n1 and micro hydro only Brazil Southeast and Central West Igarapava 200 (d) Capim Branco 624 (d) Canoas 300 (d) Aimores 400 (d) Funil 164 (d) Formoso 300 (d) Inferno so (d) Resplendor 264 (d) Baguari 157 (d) Candonga 70 (d) Sobragi 77 (d) Galileiea 162 (d) Bica Grande 258 (d) ;;·:; Paulistas 125 (d) Porto Nacional 880 (d) Cach Sertao 296 (f) Itumbiara 605 ( f) Fecho Onca 130 (f) Caraguatatuba 534 (f) (f) . Jequitinhonha 113 Salto Divisa 248 (f) Queimado 113 (f) Irape 211 (f) Inocencia 116 (f) Manbucaba 140 (f) Sao Miguel 57 (f) Quartel 109 (f) Garrote 135 (f) Januaria 261 (f) Picada 71 ( f) TurmaLina 105 (f) Banancirct:3 228 {f) Annex IX Page 5 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Brazil Southeast and Central West (Continued) Spaucaica 148 (f) Oculos 103 (f) Paranapanema 219 (f) Grande Basin 23 sites 311 (p) Doce Basin 42 sites 1,121 (p) Paranaiba Basin 10 sites 711 (p) Jequintinhonha Basin 11 sites 389 (p) S. Francisco Basin 19 sites 694 (p) Paraiba Basin 18 sites 361 (p) Rio Grande Basin 12 sites 307 (p) Tiete Basin 8 sites 358 (p) Paranapanema Basin 14 sites 668 (p) Parana Basin 9 sites 378 (p) Paraiba Basin 9 sites 1,135 (p) Costal Basin 6 sites 265 (p) Brazil South Salto Caxias 1,000 (d) Ita 1,315 (d) Campos Novos 561 (d) Itapiranga 936 (d) Barra Grande 609 (d) Irai 930 (d) Capanema 750 (d) Sao Roque 256 (d) Pinheiro 406 (f) Barracao 249 (f) Iguacu Basin 25 sites 520 (p) Uruguai Basin 26 sites 965 {p) Annex IX Page 6 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes - Brazil North and Northeast Cacho Porteira 710 (d) Santa Isabel 1,760 (d) • Pao de Acucar 700 (d) Tucurui II 2,640 (d) Oroco 515 (f) Ibo 595 (f) Paratinga 440 (f) Morpara 366 (f) Boa Vista 236 (f) Total Identified and Estimated 31,130 of which Design: 27 sites 16,198 Feasibility: 27 sites 6,749 Prefeasibility: 14 basins 8,183 232 sites Burma Zangtu 25 (d) Bilin 240 (f) Kun Chaung 84 (f) Irrawady Basin 15 sites less than 500 MW 1,473 (p) Salween Basin, 5 sites less than 500 MW 307 (p) ·;s-'.--;,_ Sittang Basin, 5 sites less than 500 MW 430 (p) • Pegu 24 (p) Lamhpa 15 (p) Michaung 200 (p) . Saingdin 77 (p) Thade 100 (p) Kyeintali 28 (p) Total (sites less than 500 MW) 3,003 of which Design: l site 25 Feasibility: 2 sites 324 Prefeasibility: 9 basins 2,654 31 sites Burundi Rwegura 18 (d) Masango 8 (f) Rus:1iha 16 (f) Ka" ,muzi A 26 (f) i<.agunuzi B 13 (f) Various (6 sites) 90 (p) Reconnaissance underway. Annex IX Page 7 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Burundi (Continued) Total Identified and Estimated 171 of which Design: 1 site 18 Feasibility: 4 sites 63 Prefeasibility: 6 sites 90 Cameroon Song Loulou II 176 (d) Nachtigal 200 (d) Njock/Mpoume 200 (d) Unknown 375 (f) Unknown 1,125 (f) Various, 3 basins 6,000 (p) 33 sites identified (capacity esti- mated) Total 8,076 of which Design: 3 sites 576 Feasibility: 2 sites 1,500 Prefeasibility: 3 basins 6,000 Cape Verde No hydro potential Central African Republic Bongoumba 50 (f) Capacity bas.e,d on 190 GWh • Bae so (f) Capacity based on 190 GWh Lotemo 50 (f) Capacity based on 190 GWh Ouawa 50 (p) Capacity estimated Foret Classee 50 (p) Capacity estimated Ebolou 50 (p) Capacity estimated Various basins, estimated 8 N/A (r) All but Southwest Region Total 300 of which Feasibility: 3 sites 150 Prefeasibility: 3 sites 150 Reconnaissance: 8 basins Number of basins estimated Annex IX Page B of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Chad Chari Basin) 30 (r) Logan Basin) Mayokebi Basin) Total 30 of which Reconnaissance: 3 basins 30 Chile Pehuenche 470 (d) Neltume 400 (d) Petrohue 475 {f) Canutillar 122 (f) Ralco 1,000 (f) Pangue 640 (f) Los Cuartas 200 (p) Canteras 200 (p) Puelo 1,100 (p) Huinganes 540 (p) Aguas Blancas 350 (p) Chacabuco 400 (p) El Salton 850 (p) Los Tabiques 330 (p) Lago Yelcho 900 (p) Bajo Palena 400 (p) Los Coiques 300 (p) Collicura 200 (p) Lontue 170 (p) Tinoco 210 (p) El Piulo 150 (p) • Pucon 180 (p) Total 9,587 . of which Design: 2 sites 870 Feasibility: 4 sites 2,237 Prefeasibility: 16 sites 6,480 China Y Baihetan 10,000 (d) Ertan 3,000 (d) Jinping 1,500 (d) Sanxia 10,000 (d) Xiangjiaba 4,000 (d) 1/ Order - implementation not known. Annex IX Page 9 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes China (Continued) , Daliushu 1,500 (d) Longmen 1,500 (d) Xiaolongdi 1,600 (d) Longtan 3,000 (d) Wuqiangxi 1,500 (d) Datengxia 1,200 (d) Various sites (estimated 20) 16,000 (f) Estimated capacity Various sites (estimated 80) N/A (p) Various rivers (estimated 7) N/A (r) Total Identified and Estimated 54,800 of which Design: 11 sites 38,800 Feasibility: about 20 sites 16,000 Colombia Rio Grande II 360 (d) Miel I 384 (d) Urra I and II 1,050 (d) Calima III 240 (d) Canafisto 1,500 (d) Ituango 2,700 (d) Miel II 351 (d) El Dieciocho 190 (f) Betania Addition 167 (f) • Icononzo 130 (f) Micay 370 (f) San Carlos Addition 310 (f) La Cumbre 121 (f) Neme 480 (d) Palmalarga 496 (f) Samana Medio 228 (d) Sogamoso 1,200 (d) Julumito 53 (f) Xarrapa 330 (f) Farallones 2,120 (£) Apavi 1,920 (f) Tenche 19 (f) Valdivia 700 (f) Patia I and II 2,000 (d) San Juan 1,500 (d) Annex IX Page 10 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Countrz Site (MW) Of DeveloEment Notes Colombia (Continued) Palmera 312 (p) Risaralda 93 (p) Poree II and III 338 (p) Riachon 100 (p) Dos Bocas 340 (p) Ayacucho 2,171 (p) Upia 1,500 (p) Penderisco 1,329 (p) Murri 1,165 (p) Bajo Murri 275 (p) Patia III 700 (d) Micay 352 (p) Tres Rios 246 (p) Patascoy 220 (p) Portachuleo 212 (p) La Gocha 300 (p) Guamues 280 (p) Andaqui 453 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 29,305 of which Design: 13 sites 12,693 Feasibility: 13 sites 6,926 Prefeasibility: 17 sites 9,686 Comoro Islands Anjouan 5 (d) Other (estimated 5 sites) 4 (p) Probably mini-hydro " Total Identified and Estimated 9 of which Design: 1 site 5 Prefeasibility: S sites 4 Congo Imboulou A 100 (d) Kandeko 2 (d) Assoumoundele 1 (d) Imboulou B 300 (f) Kouembali A 18 (f) Kouembali B 150 (f) Etoumbi 4 (f) Country Inventory N/A (r) • Total Identified and Estimated 575 of 1hich Design: 3 sites Feasibility: 4 sites Reconnaissance: ? basins Annex IX Page 11 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Costa Rica Palomo 28 (d) Angostura 165 (d) Boruca 1,520 (d) • Guayabo 213 (f) Siquirres 300 (f) El Brujo 400 (f) Pirris 195 (f) San Fernando 195 (f) Palmar 180 (f) Turrubares 240 (f) Sare 180 (f) Cedral 300 (f) Tayutic 246 (f) Purrieres 240 (f) Various (estimated 42 sites) 3,949 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 8,351 of which Design: 3 sites 1,713 Feasibility: 11 sites 2,689 Prefeasibility: 42 sites 3,949 Cyprus No hydro potential Djibouti No hydro potential Dominica Titot Gorge 1 (d) Capacity= 700 kW Blanche 3 (f) Capacity= 2,500 kW Layou A 2 (f) Macoucheri I and II 7 (f) Various: 7 sites 2 (p) Mini-hydro capacity Various: 6 basins N/A (r) Total Identified and Estimated 15 of which Design: 1 site 1 Feasibility: 3 sites 12 Prefeasibility: 7 sites 2 Reconnaissance: 6 basins N/A Dominican Rio Blanco 25 (d) Order of priority Republic Aquacate-Tavera 20 (f) based upon proposed Aquas Callentes-Bao 36 (f) implementation Redondo El Salte 34 (f) schedule, cost data Amina 31 (f) not available Mao 45 (f) Annex IX Page 12 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Dominican Republic (Continued) Jiguey 39 (f) Yague del Sur II 8 (f) • Los Negros-Sabaneta 22 (p) Sabanenta-Aguas Calientes 31 (p) Manabao-Bejuca 8 (p) Bejucal-Aguacate 28 (p) Various Mini-hydro (estimated 4 sites) 25 (f) Various (estimated 3 basins) N/A (r) Total Identified and Estimated 352 of which Design: 1 site 25 Feasibility: 11 sites 238 Prefeasibility: 4 sites 89 Reconnaissance: 3 basins N/A Ecuador Mazar 140 (d) Minas La Union 337 (d) Montufar 150 (d) Salado 560 (d) Pangor-Bucay 250 (f) Cani-Pangor 160 (f) San Francisco 157 (f) Muyo 146 (£) Chillanes 130 (f) Topo 242 ( f) Salado 560 (£) Malo-Sinclair 3,960 (f) Balsas 375 (£) Chespi 284 (f) Chaco 465 (£) Villadora 286 (f) Borja 210 (f) Palma Real 198 (f) Calderon 202 (£) Sopladora 544 (p) Carmen 695 (p) Zamora-Sabaor 471 (p) Conchay 1,604 (p) Paxillin 72 (p) Shayarrumi 70 (p) Annex IX Page 13 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Countr:r Site (MW) Of DeveloEment Notes Ecuador (Continued) f Raura 55 (p) Mulatos I and II 284 (p) Verdeyacu I and II 339 (p) Maracabeli 113 (p) Quera 80 (p) Leon 60 (p) Moromoro 66 (p) Pinas 46 (p) Guayas Basin, 3 sites 134 (p) Santiago Basins, 5 sites 1,430 (p) Pastaza Basin, 7 sites 1,950 (p) Mira Basin, 4 sites 524 (p) Canar Basin, 3 sites 345 (p) Jatunyacu Basin, 5 sites 1,641 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 19,335 of which Design: 4 sites 1,187 Feasibility: 15 sites 7,625 Prefeas ibili ty: 41 sites 10,523 Egypt Nag Hamadi 49 (f) Esna 89 (f) ' Assiut Nile Sites 53 270 (f) {p) Nile and other basins N/A {r) Total Identified and Estimated 461 of which Feasibility: 3 sites 191 Prefeasibility: 270 Reconnaissance: N/A El Salvador 5 de Noviembre Expansion 120 (d) Cerron Grande II 135 (f) El Tigre 540 (f) Would flood Honduras land Zapotillo 120 (f) Pasa del Oso 40 (f) Annex IX Page 14 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes El Salvador (Continued) Total Identified and Estimated 955 of which Design: 1 site Feasibility: 4 sites 120 835 • Equatorial Guinea Various basins 2,000 (r) Ethiopia Amarti Diversion 0 (d) Gilge Gibe 100 (f) Chemoga 50 (f) Malka Wakana 152 (f) Various small sites N/A (r) Various large sites, 5 basins 12,000 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 12,302 of which Design: 1 site 0 Feasibility: 3 sites 302 Prefeasibility: 5 basins 12,000 Reconnaissance: ? sites N/A Fiji Magondo 10 (d) Wani Kasou 10 (d) Upper Singatoka 50 (f) Navua 50 (f) Nainimala 40 (f) Various 160 (p) Various N/A (r) • Total Identified and Estimated 320 of which Design: 2 sites 20 Feasibility: 3 sites 140 Prefeasibility: ? sites 160 Reconnaissance: N/A Gabon Kinguele II 30 (d) Tehinbele II 64 (d) Based on limited Kinguele III 68 (d) data available as Okanda N/A (f) as of early 1982 Zamata N/A (f) Various sites - M'Bei N/A (p) Various sites - Ogooue N/A (p) Annex IX Page 15 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Gabon (Continued) Total Identified and Estimated 162 ' of which Design: 3 site 162 Feasibility: 2 sites N/A Prefeasibility: ? sites N/A Gambia Hydro import possible Ghana Bui 450 (d) Awisam 88 (f) Abatumesu · 63 (f) Juale 193 (f) Sedukrom 26 (f) Jomuro 26 (f) Asuoso 51 (f) Kojokrom 36 (f) Hemang 42 (f) Pwalagu 36 (f) Tanoso 34 (f) Other sites, 5 basins 300 (r) Total Identified and Estimated 1,345 of which Design: 1 site 450 Feasibility: 10 sites 595 Reconnaissance: 5 basins 300 • Guatemala Chulac 440 (d) Xalala 360 (d) Chicoc 206 (f) Polochic 171 {f) Serchil 150 (f) Sauce 122 (f) Estrella Polar 116 (f) El Carmen 113 (f) Semuc 112 (f) Atitlan 101 (f) San Juan 101 (f) El Arco 91 (f) Corral 84 (f) Tzucanca 60 (f) Craccila 54 (f) Montecristo 43 (f) Sumalito 36 (f) Annex IX Page 16 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Guatemala (Continued) Agua Caliente 27 (f) Quixabaj Matanzas 22 12 (£) (£) ' Total Identified and Estimated 2,421 of which Design: 2 sites 800 Feasibility: 18 sites 1,621 Guinea Koukoutamba 100 (£) Hydro inventory Dialokoro 170 (£) survey underway Kandiafara 34 (£) as of early 1982. Gaoual 340 (£) Total Identified and Estimated 644 of which Feasibility: 4 sites 644 Guinea-Bissau Saltinho 30 (d) Unknown 15 (£) Various (estimated 4 sites) 10 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 55 of which Design: 1 site 30 Feasibility: 1 site 15 Prefeasibility: 4 sites 10 Guyana Tamatumari 50 (d) • Amaila 178 (£) Upper Mazaruni 775 (£) Requires aluminum smelter load. Kaieteur 489 (f) Turtruba 650 (£) Cuyuni Basin, 2 sites 300 (p) Capacity estimated Mazaruni Basin, 7 sites 1,400 (p) Capacity estimated Essequibo Basin, 1 site 200 (p) Capacity estimated Total Identified and Estimated 4,042 of which Design: 1 site so Feasibility: 4 sites 2,092 Prefeasibility: 10 sites 1,900 Annex IX Page 17 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Haiti Guayamouc I 9 (d) Guayamouc II 5 (d) La Chapelle 29 (d) Site Al77 17 (d) Verrettes 21 (d) Site Al66 12 (d) Various, estimated 5 sites 15 (d) New sites N/A (r) Total Identified and Estimated 108 of which Design: 11 sites 108 Reconnaissance: ? sites N/A Honduras Piedras Amarillas 210 (d) Order of imple- El Remolino 100 (d) mentation subject Naranjito 90 (d) to ongoing system Cerro Malin 280 (f) planning study as early 1982. Guacamaya 60 (£) P-2 610 {f) P-1 253 (f) Other - 5 sites 248 (f) Total Identified and Estimated 1,851 of which Design: 3 sites 400 Feasibility: 9 sites 1,451 India Eastern Region Rengali Ext. 150 (d) Ranjit St. III 60 (d) Karkatgarh 18 (d) Eastern Gandak 60 (d) North Koel 24 (d) North Karo 55 (d) South Karo 43 (d) Kanhar 100 (d) Sankh 590 {d) Bhimkund 575 (d) Lower Indravati 180 (d) Mandira 50 (d) Lower Chiplima 140 (d) Ramman St. II -V 303 (d) Teesta Canal 68 (d) Chakung 24 (d) Singhik 300 (d) Annex IX Page 18 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes India (Continued) Northern Region , Projects for design 2,873 (d) Forecast 1989-1992 Projects for feasibility 6,568 (f) Forecast 1993-1995 Western Region Projects for design 2,375 (d) Forecast 1989-1992 Projects for feasibility 2,803 (£) Forecast 1993-1995 Southern Region Projects for design 1,165 (d) Forecast 1989-1992 Projects for feasibility 1,725 (f) Forecast 1993-1995 Northeast Region Projects for design 443 (d) Forecast 1989-1992 Projects for feasibility 903 {f) Forecast 1993-1995 Total Identified and Estimated 21,595 of which Design: 9,596 Estimated 60 sites . Feasibility: 11,999 Estimated 80 sites Indonesia Y Cirata 500 (d) Mrica 180 (d) Maung 170 (d) Kesamban 33 {d) Maninjau 68 (d) Singkarak 180 (d) Tes 16 (d) Bardang Agung 23 (d) Batu Tegi 24 (d) 1/ Cost estimates not available, order of priority may be different from that shown. Annex IX Page 19 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Countrz: Site (MW) Of Develo:ement Notes Indonesia Y (Continued) ) Pade Kemboyung 30 (d) Riam Kiwa 42 (d) Tenggari II 16 (d) Sawangan 18 (d) Bakaru II 62 (d) Matenggeng 50 (d) Karang Samburg 16 (d) Jragung 26 (d) Sengguruh 29 (d) Baru 100 (f) Buluh 93 (f) Hulusnwoh 88 (f) Padang Bindu 80 (f) Surau 52 (f) Landeh 48 (f) Pulantimun 48 (f) Kotaagung 40 (f) Sula 32 (£) Tanjung Pura 27 (£) Gunungpasir 25 (£) Panjung 22 (£) Muaralintang 21 (£) Sumberjaya 20 (f) Sejemput 17 (f) Tanjung 15 (f) Pendinding 15 (f) Haraberak 11 (f) Menatan 9 (f) Ngrambat 7 (f) Sumatra, 19 sites 1,397 (p) Java, 12 sites 985 (p) Kalimantan, 9 sites 4,340 (p) Sulawesi, 20 sites 3,093 (p) Irian Jaya, 31 sites 11,827 (p) Smal.l islands, 8 sites 75 (p) 1/ Cost estimates not available, order of priority may be different from that shown. Annex IX Page 20 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Indonesia!/ (Continued) Total Identified and Estimated 23,970 of which Design: 18 sites 1,483 Feasibility: 20 sites 770 Prefeasibility: 99 sites 21,217 Reconnaissance: 4 basins N/A Ivory Coast Louga 280 (f) Malama1asso 90 (f) Singrobo 67 (f) Kokumbo 78 (f) Daboitie 91 (f) Ndieliesso 100 (f) Bouloubre 156 (f) Gribo Popoli 112 (f) Tiassale 51 (f) Brou-Attakro 90 (f) Tahibli 19 (f) Kouroukoro 32 (f) Tiboto 220 (f) Jointly with Liberia Gao 74 (£) Tayaboui 100 (f) Niger and Black Volta Basins N/A (p) Irrigation/Power Various - 5 basins N/A (p) Total Identified and Estimated 1,560 of which Feasibility: 15 sites 1,560 Prefeasibility: 7 basins N/A Jamaica Ys River 3 (d) Great River 8 (d) Rio Bueno Extension 1 (d) Blue Mountain 55 (d) Multi-purpose project Rio Cobre ) Pindars ) Rio Minho ) 10 ( f) Martha Brae) White ) Other 4 (p) 1 / ~' Costs estimates not available. order of priority :nay be different r-'.)ffi :- :t Annex IX Page 21 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Jamaica (Continued) Total Identified and Estimated 81 > of which Design: 4 sites 67 Feasibility: 5 sites 10 Prefeasibility: ? sites 4 Jordan No significant potential Kampuchea Stung Pursat ill 21 (p) Stung Sen# 1, 2, 3 110 (p) Chhep 140 (p) Northeastern, 4 basins 600 (p) Southern, 4 basins 99 (p) Additional, 1 basin N/A (r) Total Identified and Estimated 970 of which Prefeasibility: 11 sites 9.70 Reconnaissance: 1 basin N/A Kenya Kiambere 140 (d) Turkwel Gorge 100 (f) Mutonga 70 (f) Sondu 60 (f) Grand Falls 80 (f) Koreh 80 (f) Adamson's Falls so (f) Various Basins N/A (r) Total Identified and Estimated 580 of which Design: 1 site 140 Feasibility: 6 sites 440 Reconnaissance: ? basins N/A Korea, Hapchean 80 (f) Republic of Imgye 153 (f) Imha so (f) Hongchean 63 (f) Yingdam 160 (f) Various sites 207 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 713 of which Feasibility: S sites 506 Prefeasibility: ? sites 207 Annex IX Page 22 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Countrz Site (MW) Of DeveloErnent Notes Laos Nam Ngum Extension 40 (d) Xeset 10 (d) Nam Ngum, 4 sites 1,000 (f) ( Mekong projects, Shared with S sites 10,000 (p) Thailand Total Identified and Estimated 11,050 of which Design: 2 sites 50 Feasibility: 4 sites 1,000 Prefeasibility: S sites 10,000 Lesotho Highland so (d) Jointly with South Africa Total (Design, 1 site) so Liberia Via River fl SP 4 134 (d) Mt. Coffee Expansion 64 (d) St. Paul SP 2 214 (d) St. Paul SP 0 188 (f) St. Paul SP 3 108 (f) St. Paul SP lB 120 ( f) St. Paul SP lA 204 (f) Mano Site 1 180 (d) Mano Site 2 74 (d) Tiboto 220 (f) Jointly with Ivory Coast Lofa No. 2 38 (p) Cestos No. 1 32 (p) St. John No. 243 100 (f) Cestos No. 2 so (p) Lofa No. 1 20 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 1,746 of which Design: 5 sites 666 Feasibility: S sites 940 Prefeasibility: 4 sites 140 Annex IX Page 23 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Madagascar Ankorahotra Storage (d) Regulation purposes Andekaleka 56 (d) Sahofica 100 (f) Initial capacity Betsiboka 40 (f) Volobe Expansion 40 (f) Iazafo 35 (f) Isandra 42 ·( f) Imorona 21 (f) Dabara 7 (f) Total Identified and Estimated 341 of which Design: 2 sites 56 Feasibility: 7 sites 285 Malawi Kapachira Falls 120 (f) Kholombidze 91 (f) Nachembeya 28 (f) Mpatamanga Gorge 88 (f) Fufu Falls 100 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 427 of which Feasibility: 4 sites 327 Prefeasibility: 1 site 100 Malaysia Pelagus Rapids 1,000 (d) Ulu Trengganu 200 (d) Pergau 100 (f) Lebir so (f) ) Tembling 110 (f) Tekai 100 ( f) Sook 44 ( f) Nenggiri 200 (f) Telom Hilir 150 (f) Jelai Kecil 85 (f) Maran 130 (f) Dabong 200 ( f) Kelantan Barrage 90 (f) Balui 2,800 (f) L. Halogilat 144 ( f) Papar Labak 35 (f) Various - Peninsular 23 sites 1,633 (p) Various - Sarawak ? sites 15,868 (p) Various - Sabah ? sites 711 (p) Annex IX Page 24 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Malaysia (Continued) Total Identified and Estimated 23,650 of which Design: 2 sites 1,200 Feasibility: 14 sites 4,238 Prefeasibility: ? sites 18,212 Mali Sotuba Extension 7 (d) Manantali 240 (d) Kenie 140 (£) Galougo 285 (£) Felou 75 (£) Tossaye 17 (£) Petit Gouina 103 (£) Gourbassi so (£) Niger Basin, 7 sites 137 (p) Niger Basin N/A (r) Total Identified and Estimated 1,054 of which Design: 2 sites 247 Feasibility: 6 sites 670 Prefeasibility: 7 sites 137 Reconnaissance: 1 basin N/A Mauritania No national hydro Mauritius Other identified 4 (d) Reconnaissance, 2 basins N/A (r) Total 4 Mexico Aguamilpa 540 (d) Timing subject Temascal 154 (d) to further Yaxila 660 (d) study Chinipas llO {f) San Miguel 98 (f) Chacte 656 (f) Santa Elena 556 (f) Rebombeol 60 (f) La Cuidad 251 (f) Meandro Oeste 180 (f) Guadelupe 126 (f) Annex IX Page 25 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Mexico {Continued) Tecate 45 (f) Las Tazas 419 (f) Tres Naciones 382 (f) La Catarata 342 (f) Colorado 285 {f) El Rosario 250 (f) Meandro Este 142 {f) Santa Catarine 514 (p) Tuxpan 162 (p) Verde 162 {p) Pico de Oro 325 (p) Chajul 320 (p) Pescados 315 (p) Rapidas Santo Domingo 270 (p) Yovego 260 (p) Yolotepec 250 (p) Ometepec 250 (p) Otzoloapan 250 (p) Rebombeo 2-7 1,190 (p) Los Remedios 103 (p) Balojaqui 100 (p) Chinatu 100 (p) Meandro Sur 100 (p) El Rincon 82 (p) Verde 90 (p) Piaxtla 90 {p) ) Mezquital III 82 (p) Other sites 5,428 (r) Total Identified and Estimated 15,699 of which Design: 3 sites 1,354 Feasibility: 15 sites 3,902 Prefeasibility: 20 sites 5,015 Reconnaissance: 5,428 Morocco Amouggez 67 (d) Dechra El Oueol 92 (d) M'Jara 240 (d) M'Dez 52 (d) Annex IX Page 26 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority)_ Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Morocco (Continued) Matmata 241 (d) El Menzel 148 (d) Unknown 340 (f) Various, 17 sites 660 (f) Total Identified and Estimated 1,840 of which Design: 6 sites 840 Feasibility: 17 sites 1,000 Mozambique Unknown, 2 sites 200 (f) Estimated Unknown, 6 sites 600 (p) Estimated Unknown, 3 basins N/A (r) Estimated Total Identified and Estimated 800 of which Feasibility: 200 Prefeasibility: 600 Reconnaissance: N/A Nepal Kulekhani II 33 (d) Marsyangdi 60 (d) Kali-Gandaki 90 (d) Kankai 38 (d) Sopt Gandaki 200 (f) Lakhapata 832 (f) Karnali Bend 148 (f) Tamba Kosi 66 (£) Dudh Kosi II 170 (f) Dudh Kos i III 90 (f) Mugling 238 (f) Karnali Basin, 5 sites 10,011 (p) Mahakali Basin, 1 site 1,691 (p) Bagmati Basin, 1 site 295 (p) Kankai Basin, 1 site 80 (p) Kosi Basin, 3 sites 3,428 (p) Rapti Basin, 1 site 279 (p) Various, 3 basins N/A (r) Annex IX Page 27 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority~ Capacity Next Stage Country Site {MW) Of Development Notes Nepal {Continued) Total Identified and Estimated 17,749 ) of which Design: 4 sites 221 Feasibility: 7 sites 1,744 Prefeasibility: 12 sites 15,784 Reconnaissance: 3 basins NIA Nicaragua Moljolka 206 (f) Paiwas 205 (p) Pinuela 500 (p) Macho Loco 173 {p) Tumarin 391 {p) Pusi-Pusi 408 (p) Various, 20 sites 1,729 {p) Kuikuinita Basin N/A {r) Santa Rita Basin N/A (r) Cocal Basin NIA (r) El Torno Basin NIA Cr) Total Identified and Estimated 3,612 of which Feasibility: 1 site 206 Prefeasibility: 25 sites 3,406 Reconnaissance: 4 basins NIA Niger Niger River Site W 84 (f) Dyod Yonga 26 (f) Shared with Benin Total 2 sites (Feasibility) 110 Nigeria Lokoja 1,800 (d) Resettlement prob- lem. Makurdi 1,100 (d) Ikom 400 (d) Onitsha 750 (f) Zungeru I 500 (f) Zungeru II 450 ( f) Yola 350 (f) Katsina-Ala 260 (p) Beli 240 (p) Afikpo 180 (p) Atan 180 (p) Garin Dali 135 {p) Gembu 130 (p) Various, 15 sites 365 ( p) Annex IX Page 28 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation {In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Countrz: Site (MW) Of Development Notes Nigeria (Continued) Total Identified and Estimated 6,840 of which Design: 3 sites 3,300 Feasibility: 4 sites 2,050 Prefeasibility: 21 sites 1,490 Pakistan Kohala 540 (f) Abbassi an 500 (f) Kalabagh 1,760 (d) Thakot 700 (f) Mangla Raising 350 (d) Kunhar 560 (f) Neelum Valley 700 (f) Kalam 110 (f) Munda 625 {f) Kalangari 750 (f) Bunji 1,000 (p) Panjar 1,500 (p) Suki Kinarl 500 (p) Kiran 780 (p) Makhad 700 (p) Dhok Pathan 450 (p) Dhok Abbaki 105 (p) Dhok Milla 1,300 (p) Ambahar 850 (p) Bazargai 2,000 (p) Mirkhani 115 (p) Khazana 170 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 16,065 of which Design: 2 sites 2,110 Feasibility: 8 sites 4,485 Prefeasibility: 12 sites 9,470 Panama Changuinola 300 (f) Tabasara A 140 (f) Teribe 237 (f) Bonyic 24 (d) Tabasara I 30 (f) Teribe Basin, s sites 358 (p) Changuinola, 4 sites 682 (p) Caisan 60 (p) Baru 86 (p) San Antonio 76 (p) Annex IX Page 29 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Panama (Continued) Candela 35 (p) ) Lid 15 (p) San Pablo Basin, 4 sites 153 (p) Soledad 78 (p) Esti so (p) Various, 8 sites 110 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 2,434 of which Design: 1 site 24 Feasibility: 4 sites 707 Prefeasibility: 28 sites 1,703 Papua New Rouna 4 24 (d) Guinea Wabo 1,800 (d) Requires industrial load. Not yet definite. Purari Basin, 9 sites 6,140 {p) Kikori Basin, 3 sites 3,700 {p) Strickland Basin, 5 sites 1,500 (p) Upper Ramu, 3 sites 190 (p) Musa 400 (p) Waria Basin, 2 sites 250 {p) ) Mambare 100 (p) Angabunga 65 {p) Yuat 150 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 14,319 of which Design: 2 sites 1,824 Prefeasibility: 26 sites 12,495 Paraguay Parana Basin 760 (p) Represents national Cachoeira 23 (p) sources only. Paso Carreta 2 (p) Ybypyte 17 (p) Various Basins N/A (r) Total (Prefeasibility) 802 Annex IX Page 30 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Countrr Site (MW) Of DeveloEment Notes Peru Derquit 14 (f) Poechos 8 (d) Curumuy 9 (d) Culcui 20 (d) Galli to Ciego 23 (d) Yuncan 126 (d) Sheque I & II 600 (d) Olmos I & II 600 (d) Recreta 40 (f) Chorro 150 (f) Mayush 130 (f) Olmos 10 107 (p) Jeque 70 29 (p) Urub 88 399 (p) Anda 20 37 (p) Chica 30 29 (p) Ene 40 2,227 (p) Mara 500 1,181 (p) Ina 200 1,355 (p) Mara 400 570 (p) Hual 210 1,095 (p) Urub 320 941 (p) Mara 570 2,009 (p) Tam 40 1,287 (p) Hual 90 801 (p) Mara 440 629 (p) Huaba 40 354 (p) Hual 170 841 (p) Ina 90 402 (p) Hual 190 844 (p) Man 250 434 (p) Pisco 60 235 (p) Cris 10 200 (p) Chala 10 151 (p) Almar 10 274 (p) Pisco 70 91 (p) Jorge 10 88 (p) Pam 240 1,329 (p) Various 0-100 MW, 161 sites 8,301 (p) Various 101-300 MW, 104 sites 17,214 (p) Various 301-600 MW, 30 sites 11,912 (p) Various 601-1,000 MW, 4 sites 2,979 (p) Annex IX Page 31 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) C:apaci ty Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Peru (Continued) Total Identified and Estimated 60,065 ) of which Design: 7 sites 1,386 Feasibility: 4 sites 334 Prefeasibility: 326 sites 58,345 • Philippines Luzon Szstem San Roque 390 (d) Gened 600 (d) Diduyan 350 (d) Chico IV 360 (d) Kanan I 180 (d) Agos I 270 (d) Agos II 30 (d) Kaliwa so (d) Abru II & III 500 (f) Agbulu 187 (f) Chico II 360 (f) Balog-Balog 45 (f) Camiling 30 (f) Upper Ambayaoyan 80 (f) Lubingan 36 (f) Balitingon 40 (f) Matuno 272 (f) Abra I 130 (p) Amburayan 100 (p) Aoan 64 (p) Cagayan Basin, 13 sites 1,500 (p) Tahu 120 (p) Philippines Mindanao Szstem Cagayan IN 160 (f) Agus III 225 (d) Bulanog-Batang 222 (f) Uquiaban 160 (f) Tagoloan II 178 (f) Amusig 82 (f) Pulangui IV 255 (d) Pulangui II 70 (f) Pulangui VI 70 (f) Annex IX Page 32 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Philippines Mindanao System(Continued) Mindanao Basin, 4 sites 371 (p) Various, 6 sites 223 (p) Philippines Visayas Jalaur 24 (d) Kayakan 15 (p) Aklan 20 (p) Sago Basin, 3 sites 81 (p) Hog 45 (p) Other, 8 sites 167 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 7,837 of which Design: 11 sites 2,509 Feasibility: 16 sites 2,492 Prefeasibility: 41 sites 2,836 Portugal Various, 5 sites 1,000 (f) Specific details not known. Total (Feasibility) 1,000 Romania Various, 5 sites 500 (d) Specific details Various, S sites 500 (f) not known. Total Identified and Estimated 1,000 of which Design: S sites 500 Feasibility: 5 sites 500 Rwanda Ruziz-i II 20 (d) Jointly with Zaire. Rusumo Falls so (d) Jointly with Tanzania. Gihira 2 (d) Various Basins N/A (r) Total Identified and Estimated 72 of which Design: 3 sites 72 Reconnaissance: N/A Sao Tome & Various 48 (r) Estimated Principe Total (Reconnaissance) 48 Annex IX Page 33 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW} Of Development Notes Senegal Niokolo Koba 3 (f) Kekreti 75 (f) Sambangalou 125 (f) Jointly with Guinea Gourbassi so (f) Jointly with Mali Various sites 247 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 450 of which Feasibility: 4 sites 253 Prefeasibility: ? sites 197 Seychelles Various 4 (r) Mini and micro hydro Total (Reconnaissance) 4 Sierra Leone Benkongov 20 (f) Rokon 24 (f) Komoia 26 (f) Gama 22 (f) Various, 17 sites 1,028 (p) Total Identified and Estima~ed 1,120 of which Feasibility: 4 sites 92 Prefeasibility: 17 sites 1,028 Somalia Barbera 32 (d) Various, 2 basins 13 (r) Total Identified and Estimated 45 of which Design: 1 site 32 Reconnaissance: 2 basins 13 Sri Lanka Randenigala 122 (f) Rantembe 48 (f) Broadlands 20 (f) Samanalawewa 240 (f) Various 1,294 (r) Total Identified and Estimated 1,724 of which Feasibility: 4 sites 430 Reconnaissance: 1,294 Annex IX Page 34 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Sudan Sennar Extension 30 (d) Roseires 100 (d) Khasm el Girba 30 (d) Merowe 600 (f) Sabaloka 120 (d) Shereik 450 (f) Dal 600 (f) Shirri Island 240 (f) Various, ? sites 295 (p) To be recommended in 1982 study. Total Identified and Estimated 2,465 of which Design: 4 sites 280 Feasibility: 4 sites 1,890 Prefeasibility: ? sites 295 Suriname Saramacca Basin, 4 sites 151 (p) Suriname Basin, 3 sites 46 (p) Coppenname I, II, III 100 (p) Little Saramacca B 8 (p) Tapanahoni Basin, 3 sites 200 (p) Kabalebo I 300 (d) Requires industrial load Kabalebo II 100 (d) On border with Guyana Kau Falls 300 (f) On border with Guyana Soekratipoort 400 (f) On border with French Guyana " Maopityan Falls 250 (f) On border with Frency Guyana Piketie 180- {f) On border with Guyana Gran Kreek 10 (p) Puleaguclue 100 (p) On border with French Guyana Various, 7 basins N/A ( r) Sites 20 MW to 180 MW Total Identified and Estimated 2,145 of which Design: 1 site 400 Feasibility: 4 sites 1,130 Prefeasibility: 7 sites 615 Reconnaissance: 7 basins ~-'A Annex IX Page 35 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Swaziland Unknown site 20 (f) Unknown site 20 (f) Various, 3 basins 560 (p) Estimated potential Total Identified and Estimated 600 of which Feasibility: 2 sites 40 Prefeasibility: 3 basins 560 Syria Regulatory Dam 60 (f) Yousef-Basha 300 (f) Halbich-Zalbieh 100 (f) Total (Feasibility) 460 Tanzania Kishanda Valley 180 (f) Shuguri 400 (p) Rusumo Falls 60 (d) Stiegler's Gorge 400 (d) Kingenenas 150 (p) Rumakali River 200 (p) Ruhuhu River 200 (p) Malagarasi River 100 (p) Total Identified and Estimated 1,690 of which Design: 2 sites 460 Feasibility: 1 site 180 Prefeasibility: 2 sites, 3 basins 1,050 ,, Reconnaissance: 4 basins N/A Thailand Domestic Chao Phraya 17 (d) Lam Ta Kong 4 (d) Kud 100 (d) Pak Num 108 (d) Nam San 58 (d) Nam Man 26 (d) Nam Loei 18 (d) Upper Pa Sak 24 (d} La Ngu 30 (f) Sai Yaiz I and II 70 (f) Tha Dan 320 (f) Nam Chern 15 (d) Kwae Noi 90 (f) Annex IX Page 36 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Thailand Domestic (Continued) Mae Kok 16 (f) Nam Haeng 70 (d) Sai Buri 92 (d) Lam Saphung 78 (f) Nam Pai 315 (f) Ing Yorn 750 (p) Rub Roh 32 (p) Nam Khek 1, 3 90 (p) Klong Klai 76 (p) Lower Ping 1, 2, 4, 5 92 (p) Nam Khan 20 (p) Upper Pattani 30 (p) Lam Dom Yai 11 (p) Klong Yan 51 (p) Various, 89 sites 2,382 (p) Thailand International Salween 2,650 (f) Shared with Burma Pa Mong 2,400 (f) Shared.with Laos Bungkarn 223 (f) Shared with Laos Tha Khek 365 (f) Shared with Laos Khemmarat 540 (f) Shared with Laos Pak Sae 1,120 (f) Shared with Laos Stuang Tran 3,600 (f) Shared with Kampuchea Sambor 1,800 (f) Shared with Kampuchea Total Identified and Estimated 17,683 " of which Design: 11 sites 532 Feasibility: 15 sites 13,617 Prefeasibility: 98 sites 3,534 Togo Mono River 2 20 (d) Shared with Benin Mono River, 3 sites 115 (f) Shared with Benin Kara River 100 (p) Other rivers 35 {p) Reconnaissance N/A (r) Total Identified and Estimated 270 of which Design: 1 site 20 Feasibility: 3 sites 115 Prefeasibility: ? sites 135 Reconnaissance: NIA Annex IX Page 37 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Tunisia Potential fully utili Turkey Ataturk 900 (d) Additional site 900 (f) Additional site 900 (f) After 1995 sites 2,000 (f) Estimated After 1995 sites 1,300 (p) Estimated Total Identified and Estimated 6,000 of which Design: 1 site 900 Feasibility: ? sites 3,800 Prefeasibility: ? sites 1,300 Uganda Ayago 500 (d) Initial capacity 150 MW Owens Falls extension 60 (d) Nile sites, 3 sites 1,290 (d) Total Identified and Estimated 1,850 of which Design: 5 sites 1,850 Upper Volta Bagre 10 (p) Banfora 6 (p) Dedougou 4 (p) Kou Falls 1 (p) Koulbi/Noumbiel 75 (p) Various, 8 sites 27 (p) Various N/A (r) Total Identified and Estimated 123 of which Prefeasibility: 13 sites 123 Reconnaissance: N/A Uruguay Isla Gonzalez 122 (f) Sierra de las Animas 350 (f) Terra II 49 (f) Pasa del Bote 53 (f) Villa Darwin 70 (f) Rio Queguay 36 (f) Cerro de la Bolsa 14 (f) Rio Arapey 15 ( f) Cerro de las Cuervos 17 ( f) Pasa Pereira 28 (f) Sierra del Tigre lJ (f) Annex IX Page 38 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Uruguay (Continued) Total (Feasibility 11 sites) 767 Vietnam Da Nhim extensions 172 (p) Da Quayan 640 (p) Tri An 270 (p) Sang Ba 150 (p) Yali Facls 212 (p) Middle Dang Nai 478 (p) Ban Ran Da Dung 360 (p) Tra Khuc 152 (p) A Vuong-Song Con 255 (p) Dakbla I, II 170 (p) Pleiking 100 (p) Se San 3 & 4 405 (p) Srepok 1, 2, 3, 5 610 (p) Krong Kro 120 (p) Sang Boung 2, 3, 4 215 (p) Sang Cai 105 (p) Dak Mi 1, 2, 3, 4 154 (p) Lower Sang Ba llO ( p). Da Rgna 200 (p) Da Mi llO (p) Sang Be 1, 2 105 (p) Various, 25 sites 835 (p) Mekong tributary sites 1,081 (p) Total (Prefeas i bi li ty) 7,009 Yemen, A.R. No known potential Yemen, P.D.R. No known potential Yugoslavia Various, 15 sites 8,000 (f) Total (Feasibility) 8,000 Zaire Busanga 220 (f) Bendera 20 (f) Ruzizi II 40 (f) On border with Rwanda Inga III 3,000 (f) Kaman yo la 240 (f) Wanie Rukula 2 ,·'..OC (f) Various, 42 sites .385 (p) Grand Inga 39,000 (p) Annex IX Page 39 of 39 Pages Prospective Known Sites Warranting Further Investigation (In Estimated Order of Priority) Capacity Next Stage Country Site (MW) Of Development Notes Zaire (Continued) Total Identified and Estimated 45,305 Development stage of which Feasibility: 6 sites 5,920 estimated Prefeasibility: 43 sites 39,385 Development stage estimated Zambia Kariba South Ext. 300 (d) Shared with Zimbabwe Kariba North Ext. 300 (d) Shared with Zimbabwe Bakota - South Bank 800 {f) Shared with Zimbabwe Bakota - North Bank 800 ( f) Shared with Zimbabwe Mupata - South Bank 600 (f) Shared with Zimbabwe Mupata - North Bank 600 (f) Shared with Zimbabwe Lusiwasi so (f) Total Identified and Estimated 3,450 of which Design: 2 sites 600 Feasibility: S sites 2,850 Reconnaissance: N/A Zimbabwe Kariba South Ext. 300 (d) Shared with Zambia Kariba North Ext. 300 (d) Shared with Zambia Bakota - South Bank 800 (f) Shared with Zambia Bakota - North Bank 800 (f) Shared with Zambia Mupata - South Bank 600 (f) Shared with Zambia Mupata - North Bank 600 (f) Shared with Zambia Total Identified and Estimated 3,400 of which Design: 2 sites 600 Feasibility: 4 sites 2,800 Reconnaissance: N/A